We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them.
Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now.
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1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other.
Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league.
Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020.
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2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough.
Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive.
Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark.
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3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game.
Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams.
Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here.
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4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room.
Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy.
Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division.
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5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game.
Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you.
Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently.
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6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November.
Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period.
Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now.
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7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7.
Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season.
Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center.
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8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates.
Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year.
Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air.
If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) -
https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU This has been one of the hardest songs to figure out, and I'm still not entirely sure I've done it. The latest shift in my thinking has been in my idea that it forms the first act of a loose two act thematic "play" that concludes in 'Wendy & Betsy', given that almost every thread begun in the song is somehow picked up and answered in that song. Let me know what you guys think!
[dormouse sighs] [Brighter days, whiter painted graves
[1] under Idaho sky set to roadside attraction prayer]
[2] SANSEVIERIA: Traveling where the trains will?
[3] BURNING BOOKS: To Gainesville. [one turning, looks in semicircles] Lies!
[4] SANSEVIERIA: Have a little decency and time to kill?
[5] BLUEBIRD [on a branch]
[6]: Unpromised land!
[7] [DORMOUSE
[8] sighs] the avalanche of sadness! of untied strange commands
[9] as symbols on their hands, now stored on foreheads!
[10] How concerned with unsubstantial terms and turns of circumstance…[etc.]
[11] LITTLE LAMB
[12]: Before the day is done my prince is gonna come
[13] JOSEPHINE FOSTER
[14]: Ye winged seraphs fly, bear the news with loud and joyful cry
[15] SANSEVIERIA: Boys with nothing left to lose?
[16] NIKOLAI VOLKOFF [in Croatian muffin hat]
[17]: Bridal shoes a birthright--
[18] child of the Ephraimites!
[19] not quite prepared to speak right--
SANSEVIERIA: or sleep well with how well we sleep at night?
[20] BLUEBIRD [outside door]: Mating rights secured.
[21] LAMBS: [w/ best attempts to keep themselves warm] A toast to all we’re meant for!
[22] [
Brighter days, whiter painted graves under Idaho sky where your voice changed the designs of a West Virginia Highway sign]
[withhold details of West Virginia highwayside]
[23] LITTLE LAMB: Before the day is done my prince is gonna come BURNING BOOKS: Fire and a flood,
[24] there’s power in the blood of every little lamb wonderworking power
[25] [1] The “
whiter painted graves” here is probably referring to Christ’s famous “white washed tombs” condemnation of the pharisees. From Matthew:
Woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! For you are like whitewashed tombs which on the outside appear beautiful, but inside they are full of dead men's bones and all uncleanness. Connecting the white washing that hides decay to the “
brighter days” we might conclude that the day contains a brightness that hides darkness. I am reminded of a similar image in ‘August 6th’ in which perfume is said to mask the scent of a graveyard. It may be of some import that condemnations of pharisaic adherence to Judaic law are in play here, as Aaron condemns the efforts of the Temple Institute in ‘Wendy & Betsy’. The Temple Institute seeks to resurrect ancient Judaism in the rebuilding of the Temple and are creating sacrificial tools to Biblical specification for what they believe to be this inevitable event. This would entail a re-emergence of animal sacrifice, something of which Aaron Weiss has been sharply critical in the past, and which is touched on in this song, when the blood of lambs (not THE Lamb as in the hymn) is given “wonderworking power”. A strict adherence to law brought under condemnation here with the “whitewashed tombs” analogy also suggests, in its simplest form, that some of the characters we are about to meet are attempting to come across as pious, when in fact they hide darkness within, masked by fundamentalist religious piety. Now, just what is going on in this song? I believe that what we have here is something like a psychedelic fever dream that takes the form of a stage play, with very odd characters competing to have a say. This, I would suggest, represents the fundamental points of anxiety and detrimental thoughts that are overwhelming the narrator in the wake of his perceived “abandonment” by God and the subsequent psychotic break (or perhaps ecstatic spiritual vision) which is touched on in this song. The subjects of the nearly incoherent “conversation” being played out on stage touches on religious bigotry, strict adherence to certain specified qualifications one must have in order to be deemed “worthy”, blood sacrifice as a religious practice, the perception of one group’s “rights” to something or someone, and the judgments that surround a marriage. These same themes come up again in a song on the second half of the album that also takes the form of a stage play (perhaps the second half of the same one), ‘Wendy & Betsy’, in which the “anxieties” are at least partially resolved. I will note these parallels, echoes, and resolutions as I come to them in the notes to both songs.
[2] Despite the “roadside attraction prayer” being placed in Idaho, I can’t help but feel that this might be referring to an element of “West Virginia road” psychedelic vision that forms the thematic backbone to much of both the EP and the LP, during which apparently some mysterious voice changed the letters of (perhaps) a red neon sign to read, “BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME” from Aaron Weiss’ perspective.
[3] From Wikipedia, on the plant that appears to be speaking these lines:
Sansevieria is a genus of about 70 species of flowering plants, native to Africa, Madagascar and southern Asia. Common names include mother-in-law's tongue, devil's tongue, jinn's tongue, bow string hemp, snake plant and snake tongue. And from an article on
www.portlandnursery.com: Sansevierias have a long history of popularity due to how they are believed to symbolize characteristics of health and longevity. For centuries they were grown because they are believed to share the same eight virtues as Taoist deities, the Eight Immortals. Sansevieria cylindrica These virtues are: Strength, beauty, prosperity, good health, long life, poetry, art, and intelligence. Using Feng Shui principles, the Sansevieria is used to bring good fortune into the home, while warding off evil spirits. Given that there is a distinct strain of familial conflict hinted at throughout this song which includes allusions to marriage, I don’t think it is a mistake that this is one, a plant (Aaron’s wife majored in botany, if I recall correctly) and that it is also called “mother-in-law’s tongue”. This is echoed in the song ‘Wendy & Betsy’ in which one of the cats (usually Wendy, I presume) is said to be an allusion to Aaron Weiss’ mother-in-law. This begins to forge the connections between the two songs.
“Traveling where the trains will” aptly describes the hobo-esque rail-riding in which Aaron Weiss has partaken in the past. Notably the song ‘Cattail Down’ describes moments from this aspect of his life. The character SANSEVIERIA asks this of someone, perhaps one of the characters we later meet, and this suggests that the character might represent, in part, Aaron Weiss. Imagine, as a for instance, a person who views Aaron’s propensity for train hopping as rather absurd. With that in mind, I read the line as a bit snide on the surface. As in, “Oh, you’re just traveling wherever the trains take you again, I see…” Probably this exemplifies the concern his family, and perhaps his now in-laws, have had over this habit. In ‘Cattail Down’ Michael Weiss, in the character of a goose, bemoans his “
little brother’s mental health.”
[4] A character called BURNING BOOKS answering the question as to the direction of travel with, “To Gainesville!” is a reference to pastor Terry Jones. From Wikipedia:
Terry Jones is an American anti-Islamic right wing activist and the pastor of Dove World Outreach Center, a small non-denominational Christian church located, until July 2013, in Gainesville, Florida, United States. He is the President of a political group, Stand Up America Now. He first gained national and international attention in 2010 for his plan to burn Korans, the scripture of the Islamic religion, on the ninth anniversary of the September 11 attacks. We have here a real life character who encourages what many would characterize as a fierce religious bigotry. Jones is a Christian imposing a symbolic message on those of the Muslim faith via the burning of their holy book. Extreme dogmatic religious adherence is criticized throughout this album, with references both to Zionism, Islamist fanaticism, and Christian fundamentalism as is shown here. All of these examples are cast in a harsh and derisive light, with Aaron Weiss calling attention to the absurdities, divisions, and unintended consequences they cause. This character is perhaps to be linked (at least in tone) with SANSEVIARIA, both utter lines that seem almost accusatory. These themes are tackled again in ‘Wendy & Betsy’ where they are highlighted by Aaron and Kaysha Weiss’ trip to Israel in which they experience first hand the actions of religious extremism. The understanding there forms what could be called a “resolution” for the confusing and sinister effect of the BURNING BOOKS character in this first act of the “play”.
[5] An individual having both time to kill and decency to kill may refer back to the man burning the copies of the Koran. He is wasting his time furthering division and conflict, while also bringing about the death of civil interfaith unity that he could be helping to bring about. However, I think this might be aimed instead at a different character altogether, one yet to be introduced, possibly the Dormouse.
[6] It’s not clear if naming this character BLUEBIRD is supposed to represent any specific notion, but the old adage about the “Bluebird of happiness” comes to mind. Perhaps the character draws from the French fairy tale by Madame d'Aulnoy called
The Blue Bird, which was the first favorite story of Jean-Paul Sartre (a sometime lyrical inspiration for Aaron Weiss) in his childhood. The story involves Prince Charming being turned into a bluebird for rejecting the advances of the wicked sister of the main character. I tend to doubt this is the case, but the Sartre connection and the line in this song pertaining to a fairy tale Prince gives me pause to consider it.
I would suggest that BLUEBIRD represents a person that is in some ways opposed to the two characters we have been presented with thus far. I do not mean to suggest, necessarily, that the character represents an actual person. One could, for instance, try to make SANSEVIERIA and BURNING BOOKS represent Aaron Weiss’ in-laws and BLUEBIRD represent his wife. I think this would be needlessly speculative, but I don’t think that it would be necessarily incorrect. If I had to pinpoint what these characters represent, it might be best defined as attitudes or personality types or political stances that Aaron Weiss has come into conflict with at various points in recent memory, given symbolic voice here as two opposing sides of an argument about the marriage of a Bluebird and a Dormouse that represent a point of view that skews closer to his own. As I suggested above, I think that this is emblematic of the state of anxiety his narrator is in that will find its resolution in ‘Wendy & Betsy’.
[7] As we discussed above, Aaron Weiss may be employing Newspeak-esque language to reverse the meanings of words, as in “unliturgical” and “unpoured” in ‘9:27 a.m., 7/29’. Here the Promised Land to which the Israelites journeyed becomes the Unpromised Land. A nation’s religious goal is reversed, perhaps? Maybe the journey toward an land not promised and therefore not sanctified by God is touched on? I tend to think there may be a condemnation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict here, perhaps inspired by Aaron Weiss’ January 2016 trip to Israel and Palestine. From his blog written at the time:
Inhabitants of the Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories are often categorized into one of two general camps: (1) “economic settlers,” basically normal people who have been enticed by public and private incentives (e.g., subsidies, tax breaks, grants), and (2) religiously motivated settlers, many of whom view the occupied territories as eternal property of the Jewish people by virtue of their interpretations of religious texts (e.g., the “land promise" made from God to Abraham according to Genesis 12). The notoriously extremist settlers in Hebron fall into the latter camp, some seeing the reclamation of their ancestral lands as not only a right, but a sacred duty. The attached Jeremiah quote captures the prophetic flavor to the Hebron settlers’ understanding of their role in the cosmic drama. [such expansionists, I am told by a friend in Tel Aviv, are a vocal minority, while the "silent majority" opposes their fanaticism and its implications]. The local Muslim counterpart to these religious settlers' ideology is surely that of Hamas, which in its charter invokes the concept of waqf, or inalienable religious endowment over the region once under caliphate rule. According to their extremist interpretations, theirs is both the right and duty to rule indefinitely over land once controlled at any point by Muslims (i.e., supposedly endowed to them by the Almighty). Framing the conflict in terms of contrary land promises from incompatible and unchangeable divine wills, it's hard to imagine a peaceful resolution. And later:
Bad ideas, cont. Belief in the inalienable Jewish right to the Land of Canaan, incidentally, is also central to “Christian Zionist” theology, which frames the 1948 founding of the nation-state of Israel and its subsequent victory in the 1967 war as a big-deal fulfillment of biblical prophecy (seeing such prophecy as applying directly to the modern world). Adherents to this view equate the Israel of the Bible with the modern-day political state of Israel, and view support of this latter Israel as incumbent on Christians today, based on texts like Numbers 24:9 (“Blessed are those who bless you, and cursed are those who curse you”). Criticism of modern-day Israel, no matter its basis (e.g., a belief in international law, the universal declaration of human rights, moral teachings of Jesus), can be likened to a “curse,” and will incur the same. For the most fanatical adherents of this view, the supposed imperative to “bless” the Israel of 3,500 years ago implies the bizarre requirement to defend the actions of the homonymous modern political state, to “stand with Israel,” as the abstraction goes, often unwilling or unable to distinguish between moral and immoral actions carried out in its name. The best lens through which to view this line may be in a self-condemnation that continues the “wandering in the Sinai desert” theme from ‘Another Head For Hydra’. This would suggest that the narrator has begun to fear, due to these many inconsistent anxieties that not only will he be forced to continue his aimless wandering, but they he may not be one of the “chosen” able to cross the Jordan River and enter the Promised Land. Again, recall that crossing the Jordan River into a state of heavenly salvation frames most of the song ‘Michael, Row Your Boat Ashore’ at the album’s climax.
[8] A dormouse is a type of rodent known for its long periods of hibernation. There may be something a bit more to it than that if Aaron Weiss has in mind the character from Lewis Carroll’s
Alice in Wonderland. I believe that’s a fairly good guess, considering that when Aaron gathered a mobile library to trade books with fans, one of the volumes he included at the outset was a copy of that book and its sequel. From Wikipedia:
The Dormouse sat between the March Hare and the Mad Hatter. They were using him, while he slept, as a cushion when Alice arrives at the start of the chapter. The Dormouse is always falling asleep during the scene, waking up every so often, for example to say: `You might just as well say,' added the Dormouse, who seemed to be talking in his sleep, that "I breathe when I sleep" is the same thing as "I sleep when I breathe"!'
He also tells a story about three young girls who live in a treacle well, live on treacle, and draw pictures of things beginning with M, such as mousetraps, memory and muchness. He later appears, equally sleepy, at the Knave of Hearts' trial and voices resentment at Alice for growing, and his last interaction with any character is his being "suppressed" (amongst other things) by the Queen for shouting out that tarts are made of treacle. During the aforementioned trial, the Mad Hatter is unable to recall what the Dormouse said in his testimony, which has caused the question, “What did the Dormouse say?” to enter popular parlance. Even Jefferson Airplane, in their famous song, ‘White Rabbit’, has Grace Slick telling us, “Remember what the Dormouse said.” Perhaps Aaron Weiss is providing his own addition to this interpretive lore by having the Dormouse sigh and say his line.
I might suggest that of all the characters in the song, the Dormouse is my bet for the one that represents Aaron Weiss’ point of view most closely. That the Dormouse’s statement is never revealed in the Lewis Carroll stories may connect to the later inability to “speak right” in that Aaron’s narrator is undergoing a mental crisis brought on by anxieties over not being allowed “in” to a group, and whether that is necessary for his salvation on some level. And if it is, does he even want that, given the pharisaical attitudes of the characters attacking him.
[9] The Dormouse speaks both of sadness and of “untied” commands. The commands refer to the passage from Deuteronomy below, but as with many things on the album (including the title, come to think of it, which is not titled but UN-titled) the prefix “un-” is added to the commands that are said to be bound in the scripture. Again, I see this as a nod to religious fanaticism and how it plays out on the world stage and thus affects the narrator’s anxieties.
[10] This phrase comes from the book of Deuteronomy:
6 And these words, which I command thee this day, shall be in thine heart: 7 And thou shalt teach them diligently unto thy children, and shalt talk of them when thou sittest in thine house, and when thou walkest by the way, and when thou liest down, and when thou risest up. 8 And thou shalt bind them for a sign upon thine hand, and they shall be as frontlets between thine eyes. 9 And thou shalt write them upon the posts of thy house, and on thy gates. 10 And it shall be, when the Lord thy God shall have brought thee into the land which he sware unto thy fathers, to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob, to give thee great and goodly cities, which thou buildedst not, 11 And houses full of all good things, which thou filledst not, and wells digged, which thou diggedst not, vineyards and olive trees, which thou plantedst not; when thou shalt have eaten and be full; 12 Then beware lest thou forget the Lord, which brought thee forth out of the land of Egypt, from the house of bondage. The commands refer, we must note, to actions meant to remind the Israelites of their God when they are finally living in the Promised Land, on the other side of the Jordan. Recall that earlier we were told that the land is thought to “unpromised”, which gels with Aaron Weiss’ own thoughts on the varying claims to the West Bank of the Jordan River. Dormouse seems to be calling this ritual of fixation on the Promised Land strange, and rather than being bound they are being “untied”. This running image of crossing the Jordan and being “allowed” in to a heavenly region where others are excluded - in this case, the non-Israelites who will be conquered and in many cases slaughtered - seems to be a point of some concern for Aaron Weiss, and will enter into his life in a very real way when he experiences the military-controlled border at the Jordan River on his trip to Israel in 2016, as recounted in ‘Wendy & Betsy’ forming the concluding element of this thread in the current song.
[11] The Dormouse continues, speaking of a person concerned with “unsubstantial terms” and “turns of circumstance”. One could very easily read in these lines a certain denigration of some religious fanaticism. For example, falsely divisive doctrines of the “ocean of illusion” as explored previously on ‘Julia (or, ‘Holy to the LORD’ on the Bells of Horses)’ could be referred to as unsubstantial terms, especially considering how the phrase can be used to denote something vague or not easily defined. Perhaps the phrase is a condemnation of using semantics as a means to foster division. “Turns of circumstance” could denote a fixation on one’s place in the world as defining belief, rather than Truth doing so. Certainly this would apply broadly, and yet could be narrowed to the Middle Eastern conflicts already discussed.
Another possibility is that “unsubstantial terms” and “turns of circumstance” concern certain people’s propensity to turn coincidence and happenstance into signs from God.
[12] The character called “LITTLE LAMB” could be a reference to the nursery rhyme ‘Mary Had a Little Lamb’:
Mary had a little lamb, little lamb, little lamb Mary had a little lamb Whose fleece was white as snow. And everywhere that Mary went Mary went, Mary went, Everywhere that Mary went The lamb was sure to go. Possibly the lamb imagery is used to reference Jewish blood sacrifice being re-instituted, given the lines later about the blood of the lambs being “wonderworking” and Aaron Weiss’ condemnation of the Temple Institute’s efforts in ‘Wendy & Betsy’ as we already discussed. However this could be touching on the resolution of conflict through becoming childlike, as we discussed before. This is a theme that pops up in many of the songs. LITTLE LAMB, then, could represent the entrance of a wholly new perspective into the argument between the four characters: simple child-like faith.
[13] The line about the prince coming “
before the day is done” may be a reworking of the similar line from the song ‘Someday My Prince Will Come’ from the Disney movie
Snow White and the Seven Dwarves. The song later became a jazz standard. The lyrics:
Some day my prince will come Some day we'll meet again And away to his castle we'll go To be happy forever I know Some day when spring is here We'll find our love anew And the birds will sing And wedding bells will ring Some day when my dreams come true Notice that this refrain is attributed to the character of LITTLE LAMB. Possibly coincidental, but in the nursery rhyme, the little lamb is described as having a “fleece as white as snow”, making the speaking character and that which is spoken have a myriad of behind the curtain connection not immediately evident. The expectation of a prince might refer to the Jewish expectation of the Messiah, which Christians believe was fulfilled in the person of Jesus Christ. It could also be touching on the apocalyptic expectations in a similar vein by Christians who eagerly anticipate the second coming of Christ in a way that borders on bloodthirsty Zionism. Aaron Weiss touches on this in ‘Wendy & Betsy’ and also in the song ‘Red Cow’ which alluded to the Christian support of red heifer breeding at the behest of the Temple Institute. However, for my money, I believe that the LITTLE LAMB is offering a childlike belief in something that borders on the naive if seen from an adult’s perspective, one that is both useful if used to extract oneself from combating anxieties as presented in this song, and also one that is in danger from the bigotry of other speaking characters. Later, BURNING BOOKS will seemingly offer shivering lambs up for ritual slaughter at the behest of evangelical Christian Zionism. More on that as we come to it.
[14] The “character” to which the line here is attributed is, much like Terry Jones above, a real life individual. Josephine Foster is an American singer-songwriter from Colorado. This is possibly coincidental, but she might have some bearing on the rather mysterious “German songs” from ‘August 6th’ on the
[untitled]e.p., as she released an album called
A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing. From Wikipedia:
A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing is an album by Josephine Foster, released in 2005. The album is irregular in that it is written in a German form known as "Lieder", or art songs. Foster utilizes the compositions of Johannes Brahms and Franz Schubert, icons of the Romantic Era, while her lyrics are based upon the texts of writers like Johann Wolfgang von Goethe or Eduard Mörike. JOSEPHINE FOSTER, I would suggest, is a character offering hopeful lines that form a counteractive positivity from the rear of this metaphorical stage, one in concert with the LITTLE LAMB who is longing for the coming “Prince”.
[15] These lines come from the Christian hymn ‘What Wondrous Love is This’, which Josephine Foster covered. The relevant section of lyrics:
Ye winged seraphs fly, Bear the news, bear the news! Ye winged seraphs fly Bear the news!-- Ye winged seraphs fly, like comets through the sky, fill vast eternity! With the news, with the news! Fill vast eternity With the news! [16] This line describes boys in desperation, with “nothing left to lose”. This is only a guess, but given that SANSEVIERIA’s earlier lines suggested a bit of a snide attitude toward another character (probably the Dormouse), I would say that this is the “mother-in-law’s tongue” denigrating a future “son-in-law” as a way for Aaron Weiss to express the state of his mind held captive to these competing voices. If, as I suggested in the opening track, he has been “abandoned” by God, then he would ostensibly have “
nothing left to lose”.
[17] Like most of the other “characters” speaking in the song, this is a real person. Or, rather, it is the stage name of a real person. From Wikipedia:
Josip Hrvoje Peruzović (October 14, 1947 – July 29, 2018), better known by his ring name of Nikolai Volkoff, was a Yugoslav-born American professional wrestler who was best known for his performances in the World Wrestling Federation (WWF). Although the Volkoff character was often portrayed as a villainous Russian, Peruzović originated from Croatia. I don’t think his inclusion here means much, especially as his “character” is not even actually sung. Perhaps his recent involvement with the Republican party in Maryland or his public support of President Donald Trump is in the forefront of Aaron Weiss’ mind, given that
[Untitled] was originally planned to be mostly about the current political landscape. In any case, Volkoff died very recently, on (ironically) 7/29/2018 (the year of the date which opens this album and the day that Aaron’s son was born). I would hazard a guess that he is meant to constitute a heightened sense of the weirdness of this fever-dream esque stage play, entering as another supporting character from offstage, and is perhaps commenting on more on the side of SANSEVIERIA and BURNING BOOKS than of BLUEBIRD or Dormouse, who I think are probably accompanied by JOSEPHINE FOSTER in the background, the negative and positive voices competing for clarity in the cacophony that is the narrator’s mind.
[18] The appearance here of bridal shoes may indicate some sort of folk tradition of which there are too many to count. For example, a swedish wedding shoe tradition involves the bride carrying coins in her shoes; a silver one in left shoe from her father and a gold coin in her right from her mother to ensure she will ‘never go without’. Certainly there is much in this song to hint at people believing something is given them as a “right”, if my hypothesis of “land promises” as described by Aaron Weiss in his blog are in play here. As we move through the song, notice just how many of the lines can be read as statements of self-assured belief, usually involving the speaker’s “right” to something.
This character seems to be commenting on one of the central anxiety inducing themes of the song, which like most of the other themes will find its conclusion in the song ‘Wendy & Betsy’. There is an impending marriage of which the other characters seem to disapprove, Dormouse being a boy with nothing left to lose prone to riding the rails as he is. Later, in ‘Wendy & Betsy’ this anxiety finds its resolution when Aaron Weiss assures his wife and her mother that he “would never physically hurt” her, and connects it to his “knowledge of Arabic prayers” which could have been a point of contentions stemming from his quasi-Muslim and mystical Sufi predilections coming into conflict with his wife’s far more conservative family. This is something that has been hinted at in interviews before.
[19] The event that this line is speaking of is from the book of Judges. It is illuminating in that it deals with a certain “us vs. them” mentality among religious fanatics, along with hints at a conflict along the Jordan River, as has been a recurring image. Further we have Aaron Weiss identifying with the Ephraimites who did not know how to pronounce the proper password that would get them safely across the Jordan River. Once again this speaks to a number of things, among them being the narrator’s fears over not being “included” with those who make it to the other side of the River and his criticism of the pharisaical attitude that would preclude someone from crossing to the point of death over a mis-pronunciation of a word. The text:
12 Then the men of Ephraim [a]gathered together, crossed over toward Zaphon, and said to Jephthah, “Why did you cross over to fight against the people of Ammon, and did not call us to go with you? We will burn your house down on you with fire!” 2 And Jephthah said to them, “My people and I were in a great struggle with the people of Ammon; and when I called you, you did not deliver me out of their hands. 3 So when I saw that you would not deliver me, I took my life in my hands and crossed over against the people of Ammon; and the Lord delivered them into my hand. Why then have you come up to me this day to fight against me?” 4 Now Jephthah gathered together all the men of Gilead and fought against Ephraim. And the men of Gilead defeated Ephraim, because they said, “You Gileadites are fugitives of Ephraim among the Ephraimites and among the Manassites.” 5 The Gileadites seized the fords of the Jordan before the Ephraimites arrived. And when any Ephraimite who escaped said, “Let me cross over,” the men of Gilead would say to him, “Are you an Ephraimite?” If he said, “No,” 6 then they would say to him, “Then say, ‘Shibboleth’!”[b] And he would say, “Sibboleth,” for he could not [c]pronounce it right. Then they would take him and kill him at the fords of the Jordan. There fell at that time forty-two thousand Ephraimites. - Judges 12:1-6 (emphasis mine)
[20] The full idea expressed across two characters is that the singer, speaking in these dueling voices, is both unprepared to speak correctly or sleep well at night. Being unprepared to speak right is referring to the inability of some Ephraimites to pronounce the word “Shibboleth”, thus condemning them to death as discussed above. The inability to “sleep at night”, as in “how do you sleep at night?” is explored a bit in ‘Tortoises All the Way Down’, where the narrator mulls over his responsibility in an altercation as he lies awake at night.
One thing that should be noted is that the narrator’s inability to “speak right” is concluded in ‘Wendy & Betsy’ when he tells his mother-in-law not to worry because he does “know some Arabic prayers” which seems connected in that song with the threat of violence, as if his connection to “Muslim” practices were once perceived as a threat. That may be a reference to an event that took place when he was in Palestine, in which he was granted access to a Muslim holy site by virtue of the means of entry being the recitation of an Arabic prayer that he happened to know.
[21] Sleeping well at night, combined with the Bluebird’s line, “
Mating rights secured,” might be looking at marriage from a couple of different viewpoints. Obviously the marriage ceremony could humorously be called a “securing of the mating rights”. Again, a characters claims he has secured for himself the “right” to something that should by all accounts constitute a sacred unification. Likewise we see differing claims of right fostering conflict and disunity among adherents to fundamentalist doctrines of faith. The sexual connotations connected with his marriage will continue in ‘New Wine, New Skins’ in which the SCORPION says in Aaron Weiss’ voice that his wife can “pin and mount him” in a double entendre that is barely concealed and is pulled from an even more clearly sexual verse from a Smiths song.
[22] The Lambs now chime in with a chorus, making a toast to “all we’re meant for”. I believe this could be a nod to Aaron Weiss’ condemnation of ritual blood sacrifice, ironically giving the lambs a voice with which to celebrate the only thing they are good for in the view of Israeli Jews and by extension the evangelical Zionist movement being slaughter at the hands of religious adherents. From Aaron’s January 2016 travel blogs, which we will revisit later in another context:
I find it objectionable enough for otherwise compassionate human beings today (those who could survive easily without meat) to kill defenseless animals for food, but whatever weird explanations I've heard for religious blood ritual, I don't find them at all convincing. If my notion that the Lambs represent - on some level - childlike faith is accurate, however, then we must consider that this positive influence is being threatened. The lambs seem to shiver as the cold tries to get at them. Directly after this, we cut to a reference to the apparently life-altering confrontation that crops up so many time on the album, and which we have discussed elswhere.
[23] As written, the lyrics simply have a bracketed aside here, redacting the “
details of West Virginia Highwayside” in which Aaron experienced what could at once be described as a psychedelic mystical vision or a psychotic breakdown, and which in either case ended up centering him later in life. What is interesting to note here is that, despite the bracketed claims in the liner notes, the line as sung is different. First we have a reprise of the chorus speaking to whitewashed tombs and bright days, but it goes on to say that “
under Idaho sky your voice changed the designs of a West Virginia Highway sign.” This was alluded to in the album opener, and connected to (possibly) a neon sign’s letters changing to read, “Better Luck Next Time” in an echo of what I suggested was a sentence from God upin His “abandonment” of the narrator earlier in that song. It is rather odd that the West Virginia sign is changed beneath an “Idaho sky”, but I think this is simply poetic metaphor to indicate, perhaps, that it took place during Aaron Weiss’ move to Idaho from Philadelphia, which forms the basis for the later track ‘2,459 Miles’. This is, of course, pure speculation, yet Cliff seems to think that perhaps it took place along a stretch of I-70 in West Virginia after hints he gleaned from his conversation with Michael Almquist.
[24] This first line may come from the hymn ‘God Leads Us Along’, written by G.A. Young, which is sung the refrain, “
Some through the waters, some through the flood, Some through the fire, but all through the blood.” However, the line is just vague enough that it could be any number of hymns, including ‘Mary Don’t You Weep’, which Aaron Weiss has plumbed for lyrics on both
Pale Horses and the
[untitled]e.p. [25] These final lines are a reworking of lines from the hymn ‘There is Power in the Blood’, written in 1899 by Lewis E. Jones:
- Would you be free from the burden of sin?
- There’s pow’r in the blood, pow’r in the blood;
- Would you o’er evil a victory win?
- There’s wonderful pow’r in the blood.
- Refrain:
- There is pow’r, pow’r, wonder-working pow’r
- In the blood of the Lamb;
- There is pow’r, pow’r, wonder-working pow’r
- In the precious blood of the Lamb.
- Would you be free from your passion and pride?
- There’s pow’r in the blood, pow’r in the blood;
- Come for a cleansing to Calvary’s tide;
- There’s wonderful pow’r in the blood.
- Would you be whiter, much whiter than snow?
- There’s pow’r in the blood, pow’r in the blood;
- Sin-stains are lost in its life-giving flow;
- There’s wonderful pow’r in the blood.
- Would you do service for Jesus your King?
- There’s pow’r in the blood, pow’r in the blood;
- Would you live daily His praises to sing?
- There’s wonderful pow’r in the blood.
Notice that “the Lamb” as a Christological image is changed into “
every little lamb” in the present line, shifting focus from a genuine Messiah or Savior to the blood sacrifice of the Lambs. This could be, as I alluded to above, a reference to the sacrificial lambs of the Israelite system of sacrifice, which Aaron Weiss roundly condemns. If they are also emblematic of childlike perspectives, this could indicate a threat to those perspectives; the untamed fanaticism ritually slaughtering innocence in a sacrifice to extremism. As I hinted at above, these themes are somewhat concluded in ‘Wendy & Betsy’ when Aaron Weiss calls out the Temple Institute’s attempt to reinstate blood sacrifice through the rebuilding of the Temple and the re-crafting of replica ritual sacrificial knives.
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