Super Bowl Betting Trends - Popular Trends That Can Win ...
Super Bowl Betting Trends - Popular Trends That Can Win ...
2020 Super Bowl Betting Trends - Doc's Sports
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Recent Super Bowl betting trends at odds with all-time numbers
2020 Super Bowl odds and betting trends
CreateYoureReality Week 3 NFL Analysis and Picks
Thursday Night Recap: Well, I think that game told us everything we need to know about JAX. They are going to be very inconsistent. To play the games they played in week 1 and 2 and then come home and put up a stinker against a bottom team in the league... So, the Jags are now in my list of teams in 2020 that I will bet as dogs, but never as favorites. We did ok on the evening. +1 Unit and our BBDLS is live going into the UFC fight tomorrow. Singles (1-1,+2u) Parlays (0-1, -1u) Teasers (none) BBDLS(still alive)Update, Costa got rocked. BBDLS dead! Weeks 3 is upon us. Lets check out the match-ups! :D 1PM Games LV at NE: Both teams looked pretty great offensively last week. Cam is the only other player I still seem some value on for MVP. The most important thing to me in this game is Coach vs Coach. Is there more confidence in Gruden and his defense vs Bellichek calling for Cam? OR Bellichek and his defense at home vs Derrick Carr traveling across the country? This early in the season is the time when its any given Sunday, but on a short week for LV and a full week for NE, don't see NE giving this one up at home very often. The spread is a bit high, but NE looks like a great candidate for a Teaser. LAR at Buf: First undefeated matchup of the day. It seems as if the Rams have a better pass rush, but the Bills have the better overall defense. The Rams are traveling East again after flying to Philly last week and back to LA. Goff looks great this year. He Superbowl slumped last year; having no running game hurt him tremendously. But, this year it seems as if the team is finding an offensive rhythm and giving Goff enough time to spread the ball around. My Algo is high on LA and says this spread should be LA -2. Since our Algo has LA at a 55% win, win or lose, this is an easy +EV Bet on the Rams. Also another great candidate for a Teaser. Hou at Pit: Oh boy, am I excited to see this one! PIT really let me down last week allowing DEN, with a back up QB, to get a back door cover. HOU SHOULD be undervalued as they are 0-2. However, lets remember both of their losses came to the Chiefs and Ravens... I have this weird feeling this is going to be one of those road dog gets an early lead and the favorite has to battle back to try and last drive win or not. It is extremely hard for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs so I look for all the 0-2 teams to give MAXIMUM POWAH! The Texans are the best 0-2 team IMO. With a middle of the road total, the Texans not only look like another good candidate for a Teaser but have value on the spread and the ML. SF at NYG: What will happen in this game?! NY Giants, Saquan, out. SF, Everyone out. I have gone against SF in both weeks and so far they are 1-1. If there was another week to fade them, I am sure this has to be it. Back to back road game, Missing like 10 key players including the QB and Star TE... I can't see laying points with SF with those conditions, that leads me to believe there is value on the NY points side. BTW, another 0-2 team. You know they want to compete till the end. Ten at Min: I am extremely torn on this one. I think TEN D still has some work to do to become playoff ready. But, the Min D has a ton of work to do just to win a game... I feel like MIN and PHL are on down years but it is sooooo hard for me to bet against Zimmer, especially at home. Depending on game script, this could be Dalvin Cooks wake up game. Was at Cle: This seems like I could give almost the same analysis as the Cincy/CLE game. Cle should put this away but 7 is a big number so be weary of backdoor covers. If CLE wants a shot at the extra wildcard spot this year, they NEED to take care of business this game. Washington on back to back road games and a non-favorable schedule this year. This should be good practice for two teams trending in opposite directions. CLE is my Favorite pick in the teasers this week. Cin at Phl: Well, well well. The only battle of two 0-2 teams. I have been riding the Eagles suck train for the first two weeks now, and Joe Burrow getting two backdoor covers on his first two starts has me wanting to ride that train again. The Eagles did look ok for the first half of last weeks game, but after a pick from Wentz, the energy shifted and the Eagles were left behind. Even IF the Eagles can pull it together as a team to get a win, I still like the young Burrow to fight till the end of games. Might even sprinkle a little ML action on Cincy here...Eagles D still feels like hot trashhhhh Chi at Atl: Our last 0-2 team (that has a chance) Chi has looked...ok. I take it back, Tenn isnt the worst 2-0 team, Chicago is. Without an outlier performance 4th quarter in game one and the Giants losing Saquan in game 2, Chi could theoretically be 0-2. ATL defense is starting off the year like they did last year, by just getting dressed but not really playing. This is looking like another big offensive year for Matt Ryan, followed by some horrible coaching decisions and stupid losses by his defense playing the worst zone defense known to man. In this game though? I have to side with the 0-2 home favorite. There is a reason they are 0-2 vs a 2-0 team and still giving points. You don't see MIN as a clear favorite and they have a coach that knows what he is doing! NYJ at Ind: I cant write about this game. I very much dislike Rivers and don't like taking him when he has to cover more than a TD. I already gave him his chance in week 1. I think he is full capable of winning a blowout in this game and dominating the news cycle next week, but I just cant take this many points with anyone other than the Chiefs and Ravens 4PM Games Car at LAC: All the interesting games to talk about today and then this game is squeaked in there. CMC, gone. Tyrod Taylor, out for another week at least. Herbert...dropping sherbet scoops out to everyone. Honestly, offensively, CAR didn't look that bad. Teddy looks like young Watson, in that he's chased everywhere but still makes some things happen. LA with a 1st time starting backup QB that didn't know he was playing... had success and honestly Herbert looked a lot like Drew Lock last year. This game has some small potential for an upset and 6.5 for a 2nd time starting QB is....interesting but I think the LA defense is what carries this one to a victory. Det at AZ: This is one of those games that scares me. Every week there is a game with a 6-9 point spread where there is an upset. Outside of the Bengals and Texans, this is that game on my radar this week. But i am already over betting on DET for the year. AZ has started on fire. Is this DET defense that gave up 21 to Trubitsky, IN THE 4TH QUARTER, gonna slow down the red hot cards? I'm not stepping on that train. This game looks to be my stay away game. Lets see how these teams develop before we put too much stock in them. This is a potentially great game for props though! TB at Den: Still not sure what's going on with either of these two teams. TB looked decent last week, but it was vs CAR... Brady is not yet in rhythm but he's getting decent protection. Denver backdoor covered last week after Lock went down with an injury, being replaced by Jeff Driskle. Jeff had a decent game and screwed all the Steelers spread bettors. I think what's more interesting then a spread in this one would be the Under. With QB changes for Den, Brady not yet in form, and both teams having decent defenses, this game looks primed for some weird 16-10. Dal at Sea: The Titans game and these next two were the hardest for me to judge on such little data. I am obviously very high on SEA this year predicting them to win the NFC and have a great shot at a Superbowl this year. I am conversely not that hot on Dallas. I think the whole NFC East is a work in progress. Dallas is full of offense, but until they can have a healthy season with a top 5 defense, I don't think they can go all the way. This years defensive losses are particularly rough and it's only week 2. Both teams have offenses capable of lighting it up at any time so for that reason I think it will be in both teams interest to keep the other offence off the field. This means sustained drives to eat up as much clock as possible. I also think that Dallas will be awfully full of themselves (warranted or not) from last weeks come from behind win. In a game where I am going to contrarily take the under, I must also take all those points. Sunday Night Football GB at NO: The last game of the day, also very hard one to dissect with little data. It seems as if Rodgers is coming out going for an MVP type season. Brees on the other hand looks...old. My algo has GB +1.5 here and normally I would think Vegas was just shading because NO is a team the public likes to bet on at home. However the public perception is NO lost on primetime as a favorite last week while GB is 2-0 with back to back 40 point offensive performances. And they are still giving GB 3 and in some books 3.5... This worries me. Vegas is usually more right than wrong and primetime games tend to lean opposite of public perception. I may have to take NO just based on the fact that 70% of the moneyline money is on GB yet they are still a 3 point favorite. I am pretty light on wagers this week. I am currently moving and so I have had a little less time to look over the full cards and props. I do like weeks 3-5 as a sweet spot for underdog value as the markets try to find the right prices for each team. Singles (9-10, -3.15u)
LAR +2.5 (2u to win 2u)
HOU +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Kareem Hunt 19.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
DAL +5.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Parlays (0-3, -6.5u)
Israel Adesanya ML, CLE ml, IND ml, NE ml, BAL ml (9u to win 33.87u)
Kamara 75 Rush yards and TD (Raiders/NO TNF), Cincy +6.5, Ten ml, IND ml, Dal +5.5, BAL ml (3u to win 97u)
Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)
CLE -1, ATL +3.5, TB PK and U48.5 (6u to win 15.6u)
NE Pk, CLE PK, LAR +8.5, NYG +10.5, HOU +10.5, CIN +12.5, BAL +3.5 (4u to win 24u)
BBDLS (0-4, -3.4u)
I have 10 BBDLS in for a total of 9.2u. They are all 10+ team parlays getting greater than 100-1 odds. If I typed them all up it would double the size of this page. These are all most likely losing tickets but if one hits I will post the screenshot.
DraftKings $2 Million Pick em National Championship $1Million for First Week 2 (3-2) Better! Its expected that as I gather more data, these picks should better. Lets keep this train rolling to its resting place for the remainder of the year, :D 5-0 city! Overall (4-6) Week 3
This sub wholeheartedly welcomed the addition of Joe D when it was announced last year; primarily because it meant the end of Macc era and start of Joe D era who was part of successful franchises as Eagles and Ravens. We knew it will be a shift in paradigm. We are living through that shift now. This is the new Jets. Can't blame Joe for the past failures; the same old Jets should not apply. Will it work? Who knows. What is evident is that Joe sets certain values to a player and doesn't get swayed by market movement. He is not the one to cause a splash on the first day of the legal tampering period. He seems to be following **Ozzie Newsome'**s philosophy closely and in my view, it yields a solid return in the long term. It means we will slowly improve and become a good team for a long term - doesn't guarantee Superbowl because that often requires some high risk moves (Joe D is risk-averse) and huge luck. But I will be okay with that; we want to be a good team first and foremost. Enough with being the joke that we have become lately. This is not the first time paradigm has shifted with a change of GM, of course. Remember, Idzik? He also had his own philosophy - he was really good is the mathematics of salary cap. But he was a terrible talent evaluator. We'd expect a better talent evaluator in Joe D; but his moves haven't been always a hit. Ryan Khalil was a terrible addition - though Joe didn't have many options; Alex Lewis was a much better one. If you grade just by result there isn't much to boast about, even leading to the events with the recent FA. But if you are optimist then there are reasons to be happy. We aren't getting into horrible contracts. Joe has signed players with high potential and trending up. Instead of betting your house on a player, he seems to be investing in multiple players with low-risk contracts and see which one does well. I love this philosophy and I really hope it works. This is definitely a different team from what we used to identify as. I am loving it but I will be assured once we start seeing positive results; as this is not the first time we have been told this is a new Jets. https://preview.redd.it/amj196enpun41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62c9b20baff5fabb8490ae37417d8f5dea959814
If you are a fan of professional wrestling and especially if you are a fan of WWE, Wrestlemania isn't for you
Can we be real about this? Wrestlemania maybe used to be the highlight of the WWE year, where the wrestlers who most distinguished themselves got their moments of glory. Fans still react with disappointment when the workhorses of the company get shunned and put in pre-show matches or stuck in Battle Royales when this has been a clear trend that never manifested itself more clearly than this year. Wrestlemania doesn't cater to fans of the current product. It is for people who used to be fans. It is for people who watch the Superbowl for the halftime show and the commercials. Wrestlemania isn't about wrestling, it's about nostalgia and pageantry. How is the card shaping up so far? We have Goldberg vs. Reigns, Cena vs. Fiend, McIntyre vs. Lesnar, Styles vs. Undertaker, Orton vs. Edge. You might charitably classify Lesnar as a current superstar and the Edge comeback has all wrestling fans understandably excited, but all these matches have in common that they are designed to appeal primarily to people who aren't watching the current product. You can bet your ass if Rousey was available, she would headline the women's side of things again. And I'd be very surprised if we didn't get the requisite Triple H match this year (at least it's looking like Shane McMahon is taking a break for once). It's clear to me what the thinking behind this is. People who watched wrestling during its heyday are now parenting a new generation of potential WWE fans. Wrestlemania is not your reward for having faithfully subscribed to the network for the past year, it's to get new people to tune (back) in and sign up. I think a lot of people on this subreddit might find peace of mind if they just accepted the fact that Wrestlemania isn't what they think it is or should be. It's not for you. You still have the Royal Rumble at least.
Congratulations internet! You ruined YouTube rewind for everybody.
Internet powerusers (read: reddit and twitter) love their culture of elitism and getting to decide what's 'in' and what's not. Reddit is a fucking thought cocoon. "The Paul brothers are out. Despacito is a bad song. PewDiePie is God nothing against him, I grew up watching him, just using as an example. Anything anyone else says is preposterous. 2015 was the best year of YouTube..." It's takes maybe a couple of popular memes on dankmemes and suddenly the entirity of reddit is of that opinion. An example of this mentality can be seen through the toxic nostalgia around rewind itself. We just HAVE to shit on new things. Check the wayback machine and look at the 2016 rewind. Pretty early on it had almost the same number of likes and dislikes. Look at the initial hate in the comments. 2016 rewind: '2015 was better' Come 2017, '2016 was the last good rewind' Come 2018, the famous dislike frenzy. The internet loves its fucking outrages. YouTube rewind didn't have your favourite YouTuber? Boo-fucking-hoo. It introduced a few trending personalities that aren't emvery active in YouTube? Boo-fucking-hoo. Rewind was a sort of gift to the community, and you didn't just showcase your dislike for it, you harrassed YouTube endlessly for it. Now, YouTube is a greedy corporate entity that has been screwing over its own creators for years, I'll admit that, but even they knew that there was no way they could have a favorable outcome of this rewind, so they dumped the entire fucking idea out the window, because that's what you get. And I'm still willing to bet there's gonna be another dislike frenzy over this. This culture of channeling anger through any possible vent and a vicious mob mentality means perfectly fine things get thrown under for the slightest infraction of the rule we ourselves set on them. (Eg. Superbowl 2019) YouTube was right to introduce checks on downvote-mobs, because not long after Rewind 2018 began talks about making random 'outrages' the next most disliked video began. This is what we deserve.
Last year I did a post here (and the year before here) talking about how every year there's preseason hype for almost every team, how they barely changed except patched up their holes, and are an obvious bet to improve. The post here reminded me of it and I thought I'd do it again. Mathematically, not every team can improve, at least on their W/L record to the next year. So assuming that every team gets at least a little bit better or worse, and that there is some zero sum element to this (i.e. there's only a finite amount of wins in the league, so if one team get's better, another team must get worse), there should be around 16 teams that get better, and 16 that get worse. So I'm going to write down the 16 that I think are going to be better, and the 16 that I think are going to be worse. If you disagree with me, tell me why a team should be moved to the other area, but you also have to write what team they should be switched with and why to maintain the balance, hence "not every team can improve". Let's kick this off.
Improving Teams
NFCW 49ers - Let's start right off with the homer prediction, I think this is fairly agreed upon, but the Niners should be better next season. Injury luck regressing to the mean (starting QB, RB out for the season, WR out for several games, both starting safeties injured and out along with LB injuries to 2 of our 3 starters), having a very low floor to raise up from, and some high marquee additions to the team, especially on defense (Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Kwon Alexander, Jason Verrett). Its too early to project this team as a playoff team, but 8-8 is a reasonable take for a stacked DL, an LB and CB corps with a lot of potential, and a lot of receiving additions for Jimmy G's year back. Cardinals - I don't honestly expect the Cardinals to get much better right away with a different QB and coach both needing to get used to the NFL. But I think a terrible performance last year sets the bar low. It's hard to be worse than Rosen was last year, and in addition to Fitz, the additions of ButleIsabella should help Kyler have a solid rookie year. The return of Swearinger is a boon, he was amazing for them before, and Alford ensures a solid CB2 with Pat Pete. Hicks fills a crucial hole, and Suggs rotational ability should lead up to a well built defense with a lot of potential. NFCS Falcons - Defensive injuries killed them last season, and while their offense proved it's dominance, the defense led to a disappointing season. On offense, the return of Freeman and the injection of 1st round talent into the OL should allow the offense to stay on track with what they did last year. Defensively, it will be hard to get worse, especially with Neal and Deion returning, 2 of the 3 best players on that defense. Bucs - I'm a big believer of Arians, and if you give him a QB with an arm like Winston, he can make some special things work. Losing DJax and Humphries was not ideal, but Howard potentially being there for the whole season with Brate could offset that. They have a line that has some highlights like Marpet, Jensen, and Dotson, and could help Winston not be pressured as much as before. Don't expect much from their defense even with the addition of White, but the offense by itself I think will be good enough to get them over 5 wins. Panthers - The Panthers were rolling last year till Cam started getting broken down, and I think they get back to that this year. Paradis is an incredibly underrated addition who I thinks provides a good boost to their OL (esp with new found great talent like Moton). Young WRs like Moore have the perfect opportunity to step up from last years flashes. Don't expect much change in the quality of their defense, Burns being a good addition, TD being a sad loss, but their offensive improvements should float the team up to their every other year tradition of going above .500 NFCN Vikings - With the disappointment the Vikings were last year, I essentially expect players to bounce back from some regressions. Harrison Smith is usually better than what he was last year, and the same can be said for Rhodes. On the offense, Bradbury is hoped to start saving the line, and I do think that with his potential, he could make the line not as ass as it was previously, and allow the talented skill players on the Vikings (Thielen, Diggs, Cook) to explode larger onto the screen this year, and put Vikings into division title contention. Packers - I don't honestly think much changed with this team. Adams probably peaked (though that doesn't mean he'll regress either), they have some young talent that could surprise, but probably will be just good enough for Rodgers to make look better, and their line and RBs look about the same. Defensively they lost Daniels, got Amos and Za'Darius. I think their season depends on how Rodgers looks compared to last year, and I think that although his 2011-2014 days of all-time level peak are no longer with us, he can return to top 5 lock QB play rather than the top 10 play we saw last year where he was a little too safe, still ended up with a similar percentage of negative play results, but wasn't able to put out as much magic as he usually does to make up for it. Lions - Another team I expect slight improvement from but nothing huge. Their IDL is fucking disgusting, and the addition of someone like Flowers should make their DL one of the most feared in the league. However, I'm not the highest on their LBs, and I don't think Coleman does too much to help the one-man Slay secondary. I definitely expect their offense to get better though, Stafford won't be that terrible anytime soon based on what we've seen, and probably needed time to adjust to the offense. The addition of someone like Hockensen should help both the pass and run game, and Amendola is a reasonable Tate replacement. With a better offense, and a controlling DL, I think they move to .500. NFCE Eagles - Already a playoff team last year, they definitely had a down year relative to their talent. Wentz was playing well last season despite complaints, fringe top 10 QB, and is now given additional weapons with DJax and the breakout of Goedert that I see coming. Howard and Sanders are fantastic additions to the run game, and I think Lane avoids some of his low points that he had this past season. On the defensive side, I expect both Darby and Jenkins to play better this season and help a struggling secondary stay from being terrible. LBs are a little concerning with the promise of Hicks returning no longer buoying the potential of the group, but they still have a scary DL that can control the run game and generate the pass rush they need. Not much improvement I see on the defense, but it won't be needed with the offensive improvement I see coming. AFCW Raiders - Not a popular team to praise, if you forget their team name and look at their offense, you might be surprised. AB and Tyrell is a more than solid WR duo. A 1st round RB in Jacobs is exciting, especially with (overpaid) improvements to the OL coming in with Trent Brown. Incognito is a wild card, as a player and person, but he does have the potential to be a great guard. Unfortunately Cable will probably dampen down the talent, but it does look good with probably improvement from Kolton boosting the talent of Gabe and especially Hudson. On defense, they still need another year, but their DL is starting to solidly form with Ferrell (reach but still great player), Key, Hurst. LBs are weak though Burfict is generally good, and Conley has been a standout on their defense and will welcome the addition of talent like Joyner and 1st round safety Abram. They're still a year from above .500 imo, but I think they show a lot of potential this year to build upon. AFCS Colts - The Colts did very well last season, so getting them to improve is risky, but I think their young studs performed in not only sustainable, but improvable manners. I think getting Doyle fully back will definitely help their blocking outside the OL, and their receiving to a little extent, and Marlon was great when healthy last season, if he can be healthy for the season, their run game can really get going to compliment Luck. I absolutely love the Houston add and think that transforms their defense to a legitimately scary force, especially with the massive injection of rookie talent to that defense. With their success last year drafting, and the way they got better as the year went on, I'm extremely high on what the Colts will be able to do this season, and think they will be legit Superbowl contenders. Titans - Forget about Mariota and Tannehill, who I think are exactly who we think they are. This team took a line with a good amount of talent, that regressed and could easily bounce back this year, and added a top ~5 guard to it with Rodger Saffold. Delanie Walker, a top 5 TE last time he played, might still have enough gas to contribute, and will almost certainly be better than their TE situation last year. Henry finished the year strong and may have found his groove enough to let that carry on for a season. And AJ Brown is needed talent at the WR position. Defensively, the Titans were already solid, but their CBs started getting better last season, and if they continue that trend, a secondary backed by Byard and Vaccaro could do very good things. AFCN Browns - Is there an explanation needed here? The most hyped team this offseason, idk if I'd say that they'll meet the expectations of a lot of people, but is inarguable that they just injected a shit ton of talent with guys like OBJ, Hunt, Vernon, Richardson, and Burnett. They were already trending up last season without Hue Jackson, and they looked primed to explode, and definitely get into that >.500 range. Ravens - This isn't about Lamar Jackson taking over the team, though I do think he will improve a little on his throwing than the little he did last year with a limited game plan. This is about a suffocating defense that performs year after year, has maybe the most talented CB group in the NFL, and just added Earl Thomas to it's safeties (more than offsetting the loss of Mosley). This is the kind of team that could just stop the other team from passing. And when they have a run game that just added Mark Ingram behind a dominant OL with guys like Yanda and Stanley, and arguably the best rushing QB in the league, they have the ability to consistently wear down teams and get tough Ws. I think they take the division, and are stronger contenders for the ring than they were last season. AFCE Bills - This one's pretty simpe, I think Allen is talented but raw, and I think he brings out a little more refinement this season, especially with an injection of both deep threats and receivers that can work the middle of the field. Morse and Ford bring much needed help to an OL that needs to get the run game going, and everyone should know now how absolutely loaded this defense is on all levels. Safeties, CBs, LBs, Edge, their only true weakness was the interior and they went ahead and got Ed Oliver. This will be a Ravens-lite team with a better deep ball/big play ability (because don't forget Allen is one of the best running QBs as well) Jets - Ditto to above, Darnold I definitely see building upon his December performance to give a better performance than the overall awful year he had. He has good weapons that he started using more last season (especially Anderson), and although he didn't use Herndon as much last season, I think Herndon will get good enough this season that a good rapport with Darnold is inevitable. Mosley is a good way to get their defense more stable and consistent, and Quinnen may bring back the glory days of Richardson/Wilkerson as he works with Leonard Williams.
Declining Teams
NFCW Seahawks - The Seahawks haven't been the same for awhile, and although Wilson continues being a top 5 QB, the team around him keeps going through various changes while tenuously keeping it's identity. I think no ET3 for any games in the season is a huge loss, and losing Frank Clark completely is also big and not at all comparable to getting Ansah. Reed missing 6 games just adds to the situation that is their DL breakdown. They still have one of the best LB corps in the league, but it doesn't matter when the rest of their defense is unproven and one year good not great players are the remaining stars of the defense (like McDougald and Shaquill Griffin). Metcalf at best is probably still going to be a little bit of a project who can't be a complete guy off the gate, and Lockett had a breakout year as more of the WR2 in the offense, now he'll see what happens as a true and explicit WR1 in the system. Wilson/RBs will still be great, but it won't be enough to stave off the regressions in other areas, and they probably end up at or below .500, even with Wilson. Rams - It's hard to improve on last year for the Rams, and getting Kupp back for hopefully the year is one way to do that. However, that doesn't offset their losses on the line to both Sullivan and Saffold, something that with the combination of Gurley's lower impact this year due to his arthritis issues, is not a great sign for the Rams run game. Goff seemed like he was reaching the peak of his ability last season, especially in the first half, and it's unknown whether he can get back to that level. And on the defense, though Weddle so far has been great when surrounded with talent, he's not guaranteed to be better than Joyner. I am high on their CBs like Peters/Talib being better than last year, but overall I think their defense is similarly underwhelming considering their talent with no edge rushers or IDL to help out Donald, or LBs with them reaching down to Matthews to move back to ILB to help them out. Still a top team, but not THE team the way they were this past season. NFCS Saints - Similar to the Rams, I think the Saints are still great, and honestly still Superbowl contenders this next season. I love the addition of Cook to the passing game, and think their defense is filled with young talent that can improve this next season. However, I definitely do not see Brees putting up an all-time season like he did in 2018. I don't think he also regresses and starts playing like that 3 week slump near the end of the season for all of 2019, but I think he returns to his usual level of top ~5 QB play rather than best in the league type play, and I think that cancels out some of their additions they've made. Hopefully Terron can stay healthy and offset the Unger loss as well, we'll see how McCoy does as a rookie in Unger's stead, but overall I see this team regressing slightly, but still being a dominant team that is near or at the top of the NFC. NFCN Bears - Every year that a team puts together a defense like the Bears last season, it tends to regress over a few years. I think the loss of talent like Callahan and Amos (who I think is better than HaHa), in addition to the loss of their coordinator Fangio, puts their defense in a definite downward direction. Still top 5 probably, but def not what they did last season. And I definitely don't believe their offense offsets that, I do like the addition of Montgomery, but as a runner, I don't think he brings more than Howard did right away, and the Bears line doesn't show any reason for improvement. Finally, Trubisky statistically seemed to be really overachieving last season, and although he may increase as a passer, I do think that the passing offense of the Bears will at best stay similar to last season. Overall, regression of the defense is going to outweight whatever the offense does, and keeps the Bears from being as good as last year. NFCE Giants - Another one that's fairly straightforward, lost their 2nd best player on their offense which was already dogshit, and won't be fixed by the addition of a guard, however good he is. Their defense has been stripped bare and doesn't show much potential, they're an early worst in the NFC favorite, and I would be shocked if they reach their 5 win total last year, which is not something you can usually say. Cowboys - It's hard putting the Cowboys here because there is stuff that I realllly like about this team. Their LB corps showed the fuck up last season and might be the best in the league with Sean Lee added. Byron broke out as a CB last season, DLaw continued to be a wrecking ball, and Amari added a lot to their offense last season. However, I just get the feeling that there were a lot of single season peaks among the incredible performances last season. Amari came in and exploded right away, something that I don't think happens to that extent with a whole offseason to get accustomed to Dak to Amari. And although Frederick coming back is huge, we have no idea how he'll perform back. And Zeke is now holding out, and without him, their offense will be much, much worse than last year. I don't think they regress much, but there are so many potentially worrying systems that I can't put them as improving. Redskins - I think this team is going in the right direction, absolutely ridiculous DL and an OL with a lot of potential. But then Trent holds out, and the situation starts getting a little ugly for the RBs AD and Guice. Not only them, but a rookie QB in Haskins could have really used someone like Trent on his blindside. And the Redskins picked up some good WRs in the draft, but they still seem to lack someone as a WR, RB, TE that can step up and be a #1 option for Haskins. I think that defensively they will be strong, but whatever is happening on offense will fuck up the team enough to not get them to that 7 win mark they had last season. AFCW Broncos - Joe Flacco is not good. He's a temporary solution for them, and maybe Elway and crew can get more out of him, but there is no Peyton moment coming up, especially with their WR1 coming off a serious ACL injury. Fant is coming in, and hopefully he can help, but this isn't exactly an ideal situation for Fant's development (compared to say Hockensen). The loss of Paradis is also concerning from an OL that wanted to get better, and McGovern has potential, but being as good as Paradis is by no ways a guarantee, especially this year right away. Their defense made some great CBs additions, but the Broncos safeties are lacking, as are their ILBs. I don't think they'll be good enough to carry the offense, which will lead to a more disappointing end than last season. Chiefs - There is almost no chance their offense explodes to the level it did last year. Hunt is gone, which is definitely a blow to the run game though the Chiefs will probably make one of their random RBs almost as good. No Tyreek suspension is definitely great for them, but Mahomes will probably see some regression, just logically, even if he's still the best QB in the league. What's even more concerning is their defense. They took an already bad defense and took off 2 of their 3 best players (Houston and Ford), and tried to replace both with Frank Clark, which definitely won't work. Their secondary leaves a lottt to be desired, especially with Mathieu not having played at a very high level since 2015, as do their LBs, and Okafor opposite Clark may be sneaky good but still won't compare to last year's edge rush. An almost certain decline offensively (statistically), and a net loss to defensive talent makes this an easy regression candidate, that will probably still be a strong playoff player. Chargers - The eternally hyped up team, I'm actually pretty high on the Chargers this season. But they're not coming off a year of potential that they could build on. They legit were amazing last year, tied for best record in the AFC with the Chiefs. Can they keep that up? The additions of Henry are very exciting. The situation with Melvin Gordon is the opposite. Tillery and the return of Bosa gives the DL a lot of potential. But Rivers having one of his best years may not be replicated this next season. Overall, I think this is a really good team, in the 10-11 win range, but I don't seem them topping the 12 win range, especially if Gordon continues to hold out and leaves Ekeler to deal with their garbage O-line. AFCS Texans - Realistically, Hopkins is playing at the highest level he can, and Watson is probably close to it. Getting Fuller back may push the passing offense up, but their OL is hot garbage still, and that's going to keep handicapping their offense and what it can truly do. The loss of someone like Kareem Jackson who was a good piece in a secondary that is slowly falling apart, may put too much pressure on the front 7. I don't see them keeping up with the Colts, and regressing just slightly both offensively and defensively. Jaguars - Nick Foles is the type of QB you want to add when you've build the skeleton of the offense and need to have a QB to step in. Maybe that's what the 2017 Jaguars had. The 2018 Jags don't. They have decent WRs that are good and underrated, but no one that can really carry the receivers. No TEs that are anything special, Fournette isn't particularly a good pass catching back. Speaking of, he has to really bounce back from a bad season last year, and needs to be efficient in addition to a workhorse to start carrying the Jags offense. Defensively the Jags still have a ton of talent, but their safeties could very easily let down Ramsey/Bouye this year, and the loss of Telvin is enormous. It's good Yannick is back, but their defense doesn't seem to be going back to 2017 Jags, and that's what this team would need to succeed. I'm hesitant to say they're worse than the 5 wins last season, but I personally cannot look at this team and say it will be better next season. AFCN Steelers - Headache or not, losing AB is huge for the passing offense, especially with Ben slowly regressing year after year. A large reason for why AB wasn't as good as past seasons, we'll see how he does with JuJu as his main WR1. Guys like Al were overachieving on the OL last season, and I don't expect him to be as good. Additionally, their line is fairly old, and losing their OL coach is not going to help that situation. Defensively, Bush may be exactly what the defense needs to tie all the pieces together, but I'm not sure if he can do that his first year, and I'm still wary of the secondary. With the Ravens and Browns getting better, I think the Steelers slip a little and fall to around .500 Bengals - I really wanted to go for the Bengals getting better, but the Green and Jonah injuries have taken that belief out of me. Their young players like Boyd and Mixon are great, and Price is the type of guy they need to keep adding to their OL, but I don't see their offense doing much with its current status, especially until Green is back. Defensively, they've been losing some of their older players, and although they have a lot of young talent with Lawson, Bates, and WJ3, I don't think it offsets their offensive issues, and even their star defensive player Atkins wasn't quite the same top 2 IDL he usually is last season. AFCE Patriots - Hard for the SB team to get better, though as an 11 win team, they do have the potential. However, I think the loss of Gronk is big for the team, even crippled he was a top 5 TE, and although I'm not as high on Trent Brown, replacing him with Wynn is probably a negative in the immediate future of this season. Defensively, I think the loss of Flowers is enormous and a huge blow to their DL, Bennett does not cover it up. Their secondary is the same, probably regresses a little after how much Gilmore's ridiculous season helped it, and their LB corps gets Collins back, but I don't think accounts for all their losses. Even if Brady doesn't continue the slide from last season and bounces back to a top 3-5 type QB, I think the team is worse off overall. Dolphins - Not much to say here, taking a QB that struggled because of a bad situation, and putting him in a worse one is not a recipe for immediate success. The Dolphins just lack high end talent, very little exists on the team, and honestly they just need to rebuild a ton before they're ready to compete. Another team I would be shocked with if they ended up with 7 or more wins like last season. Feel free to give me your input, but again, if you believe a team doesn't belong in one section, say which team you'd switch it with. Don't think all my predictions here are accurate, and can easily be changed in a lot of them, just want to try and see what happens if we constrain predictions to have to follow this 16 and 16 model. Also for fun let's see how I did last year by some different metrics.
W/L (No change ignored)
DVOA
65.5%
65.6%
W/L Correct: Rams, Bears, Giants, Chargers, Colts, Texans, Browns, Ravens, Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons, Lions, Eagles, Raiders, Jaguars, Steelers, Patriots, Jets, Bills Incorrect: 49ers, Cardinals, Packers, Vikings, Bengals, Seahawks, Saints, Cowboys, Broncos, Chiefs Same: Buccaneers, Redskins, Titans DVOA Correct: Buccaneers, Bears, Packers, Giants, Chargers, Colts, Texans, Browns, Bengals, Dolphins, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, Raiders, Jaguars, Steelers, Patriots, Bills Incorrect: Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Vikings, Redskins, Ravens, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Titans, Jets So pretty consistently was getting noticeably above random, but also not super high, which could be because the NFL is unpredictable, or I'm just not that good at this, probably a combo of both. But yeah lmk what you guys think
Link to Week 2 Strategy Guide (Part 1): https://www.designatedforassessment.com/nfl/week-2-matchups-strategy-guide-part-1 Every week, DFA will produce a Start/Sit Strategy Guide for NFL Fantasy. We will breakdown each matchup and give valuations of each fantasy relevant player. Additionally, we will offer occasional upgrades or downgrades to specific players depending on their matchup, role in the offense, or the effect of projected game flow on a given week. Matchups are written by Roto_G and Roto-Wiz8. Keep in mind, one blown coverage can make a week, destroying any strategy - we are seeking to find the best odds of a players success. If you have questions about your individual lineup conundrums, you can always hit us on twitter @DFAroto! Or check out the rest of our content and rankings here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/ ATS=Against the Spread Roto-Wiz8:
Buffalo’s come from behind win was one of the more exciting finishes of Week 1, and although Josh Allen was far from perfect, he showed some nice chemistry with his new weapons. Allen’s target distribution - John Brown (10), Cole Beasley (9), Devin Singletary (6), Zay Jones (5). Allen ended with a solid fantasy line, but is not yet a top level QB1. But after watching Dak carve up this same Giants defense, owners of Allen should feel comfortable with him in lineups for at least this week. He’s a better option than some QBs with tough matchups like Murray this week, but shouldn’t be put in over elite QB1s. John Brown (upgrade) gets a matchup against a leaky secondary, and his matchups will likely allow him to get deep at least once or twice. A perfect match with Josh Allen’s rocket arm, Brown makes for a solid WR2 this week, and gets an upgrade from CB DeAndre Baker and FS Antoine Bethea’s below average grades in coverage. Cole Beasley (upgrade PPR) is only an option in deeper leagues, and his lack of upside makes him only worth a start for those in dire need of a high floor but low ceiling option. There are no other fantasy relevant players in this passing game, as Zay Jones will not get the consistent looks to be startable with Brown healthy. Devin Singletary surprisingly did not receive a touch until the second half, but still managed to play 70% of snaps in Week 1. Once he got his opportunities, he promptly turned 4 carries into 70 rushing yards. Frank Gore could only plod his way to 20 yards on 11 carries, and TJ Yeldon only played 1 snap the entire game. Head Coach Sean McDermitt confirmed Gore remains the starter, but Singletary is the favorite to be the most productive back in this offense. Even on 10-15 touches, he could easily put up 75+ yards from scrimmage, and would become an RB2 if he can take a bigger piece of the pie. For this week, Singletary is safe to use as a flex, especially considering the likely positive game script for the Bills.
Giants
We got our first taste of Danny Dimes last week in garbage time, but the Giants will still be trotting out Eli Manning to start Week 2. The Giants target distribution last week - Evan Engram (14), Cody Latimer (8), Sterling Shepard (7), Saquon Barkley (6), Bennie Fowler (5). Manning continues to look like he’s on his last legs as a starter, and it is a matter of if not when he is benched for Daniel Jones. He should not be near fantasy lineups, especially against an above average Bills’ defense. Sterling Shephard has been ruled out with a concussion, which locks in Evan Engram (upgrade) into an even bigger workload. Despite Buffalo’s stifling defense, Engram will get the volume to be a top 5 TE play this week. For owners desperate to start a Giants receiver (which might lead to an ulcer) Cody Latimer is the best bet. His 164 air yards easily led the team last week, and he produced 74 yards. He’s a low end WR3/4 against this Bills D, but is the only potential start out of the Giants WR corps. Saquon Barkleydominated backfield snaps (80%) as should be expected, and will remain a top 3 RB play regardless of matchup. The Bills were able to keep Le’Veon Bell to only 3.5 ypc, and have a strong defensive front seven. Barkley’s volume and talent give him a high floor, but his efficiency may take a hit until the Giants make the switch to Daniel Jones and have a more functional offense. Owners should be hoping the switch happens soon, and that he can follow through on his preseason flashes of quality. Score prediction: Bills 21, Giants 13
Kellen Moore had an excellent debut as offensive coordinator in Dallas’ Week 1 demolition of the Giants. Moore found the perfect balance between the run and pass, and just may be the director needed to unlock the true potential of this offense. Dak Prescott’s target distribution - Amari Cooper (9), Michael Gallup (7), Randall Cobb (5), Jason Witten (4), Ezekiel Elliot (2). Prescott (upgrade) looked unstoppable on Sunday, picking apart the Giants defense with ease. With the weapons at his disposal, and an upgrade at coordinator, Prescott could become an every week must start. For Week 2, he is an easy target considering the matchup against a Redskins defense with an extremely vulnerable secondary. Consider him a high end QB1 this week. After watching Desean Jackson go deep for two TDs last week against this secondary, and Alshon Jeffery score an additional 2 TD, it’s not hard to envision Amari Cooper (upgrade) and Michael Gallup (upgrade) having similar success. Washington’s biggest weakness in coverage is on the deep ball, with safety Montae Nicholson grading out extremely low in coverage the past two years. This bodes well for both Gallup and Cooper’s chances to bust a long play, and the boundary CBs for WAS are not an imposing matchup. Fire up Cooper as a low end WR1, and Gallup as a low end WR2. Both should have big days unless the Cowboys get too big of an early lead and game flow shifts to the run game. Randall Cobb is simply a WR4/5 in hopes of some catches or TD, and gets a slight upgrade in PPR. Despite his Week 1 TD, Jason Witten remains just a low end TE2 due to his lack of passing game volume and short aDOT (.8 yards). Ezekiel Elliott (upgrade) played just over 50% of the snaps last week after returning from his holdout. He had a productive game and figures to ramp up his workload a bit this week. He is a no doubt elite RB1 heading into this matchup, and should be in all lineups. His backup, Tony Pollard, played about a third of the snaps last week, and will remain just a part time COP back barring injury ahead of him. He is a top-3 fantasy handcuff based on his situation and clear talent.
Redskins
The Redskins got off to a hot start last week, in part because of Case Keenum’s largely impressive Redskins debut. Keenum’s target share in Week 1 - Chris Thompson (10), Paul Richardson (7), Terry McLaurin (7), Vernon Davis (7), Trey Quinn (6), Derrius Guice (3). Scary Terry McLaurin was one of the biggest surprises in Week 1, topping 100 yards and scoring a long TD off a Keenum pass in the first half. He arguably should have had another long TD, but Keenum overthrew him. McLaurin (downgrade) has an excellent season long outlook based on projected negative game scripts and lack of competition for targets, but this projects as a difficult game to trust him in. Although the Giants don’t boast a deep WR crew, the Cowboys absolute shutdown of their WRs showed the strength of their secondary. Jourdan Lewis showed especially well in coverage, and opposite him is Chidobe Awuzie, who’s speed will come in handy against the electric McLaurin. It would only take one long bomb for Terry to pay off, but it’s always a risky proposition to chase last week’s points. Consider him a WR3/4 with upside for the time being, and consider keeping him on benches another week if you have better options. Paul Richardson received a high target share, but did little with his opportunities. Slot receiver Trey Quinn (upgrade PPR) managed to score a TD, but was held to 33 yards. Both are too untrustworthy to consider plugging into lineups. If forced to choose one, we would lean towards Richardson due to his significant advantage in air yards over Quinn (75 to 34). In full PPR formats, Quinn gets a slight boost as he will likely get the short targets when the Redskins are in full pass mode if they have to play from behind. After Derrius Guice’s meniscus surgery (projected 4-6 weeks out), Adrian Peterson (downgrade) will be back in the lead back role this week. With the Redskins as heavy underdogs, Peterson is a low floor play considering the likelihood he is phased out in a negative game-script. He is just a low end flex in this matchup. Chris Thompson (upgrade PPR) has a much better outlook with his team leading 10 targets and 64% snap share last week. Expect a similar number of targets again this week, especially if the Cowboys take an early lead. Thompson will likely get at least 5-6 catches, with a sprinkle of carries as well, which buoys his floor and makes him an even more appealing PPR target. He’s a solid flex option this week that should be in lineups outside of shallow leagues. Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Redskins 17
New Orleans improbable last second game winning field goal made for one of the more exciting matchups in Week 1. Brees’ target distribution last week - Michael Thomas (13), Alvin Kamara (8), Ted Ginn (7), Jared Cook (3), Latavius Murray (3), Tre’Quan Smith (2). Brees carved up the Texans pass D last week, but faces a much more challenging matchup in the Rams. Additionally, Brees is historically more productive at home than on the road (as are many QBs), so owners should be wary of counting on similar stats from last week. He is still in play as a solid QB1, and it’s quite possible after watching Cam Newton bomb on TNF this week that it was Newton, not LAR’s pass defense, that caused trouble for Panther’s receivers last week. Brees top receiver, Michael Thomas, is an automatic start every week regardless of matchup. The Rams boundary CBs are solid, but not anything to worry Thomas owners considerably. Ted Ginn (downgrade) may get a lot of Aqib Talib this week, who mostly shutdown a similarly speedy Curtis Samuel last week. Ginn is hard to trust every week due to his lack of consistent volume, and the difficult matchup combined with a decrease in volume from Brees this week make him a likely fade. He’s no more than a low floor WR4 this week, worth starting only in deep leagues. Tre’Quan Smith is barely worth owning at this point, as he seems below Ginn in the pecking order. There are better WRs on the wire. Jared Cook may be in position for a bounce back week, but the matchup doesn’t look overly favorable after the Rams held Greg Olsen to only 36 yards last week. Cook is still a low end TE1 and should get more targets than last week, but can be benched for a TJ Hockenson or Darren Waller type. We still would expect Cook to outproduce his week 1 numbers by a good amount if the Rams focus their attention on Thomas and Ginn on the outside. Alvin Kamara (upgrade) played on 76% of snaps to Latavius Murray’s (upgrade standard) 27%. This split seems about what coach Sean Payton will want moving forward. Murray will continue to get about 10 carries a game, and will be used in short yardage and goal line situations at times, but will struggle with inconsistency considering he needs a rushing TD to make for a valuable start. Be careful chasing Week 1 points. Kamara remains an elite RB1, whose usage should help to keep him healthy and put him in position to be efficient and productive on his roughly 20 touches per game. This week projects especially well considering the Rams were gashed by CMC last week, and the face the Rams appear more vulnerable to the run than the pass.
Rams
Goff’s target spread in Week 1 - Robert Woods (13), Cooper Kupp (10), Brandin Cooks (6), Tyler Higbee (5), Josh Reynolds (2), Gerald Everett (1), Todd Gurley (1). Coming off a down week in which he scored only 10 points, Jared Goff (upgrade) returns home for what should be a high scoring matchup. Considering the shootout potential, and the fact that Jared Goff was the best QB in fantasy when at home last year (by total points), he makes for a top 10 option this week. Robert Woods (upgrade) was the most productive Rams wideout last week, and if he can avoid Marshon Lattimore in coverage for large periods of the game, he should be headed for a big game. PFF projects Brandin Cooks to receive coverage from Lattimore, but unless he shadows him, expect Sean McVay to find ways to scheme him open. Cooks disappointed owners last week, but he should be in line for a bounce back week. Cooper Kupp (upgrade) will operate out of the slot as usual, and his matchup with PJ Williams is a distinct upgrade. All three are excellent starts, and we are especially bullish on Kupp considering how Jared Goff’s best games have correlated with Kupp’s best games. Look for Kupp to get on the board with 80+ yards and a good shot at a TD. Todd Gurley (upgrade) looked explosive in his highly anticipated first game action since being phased out due to injury during the Rams Superbowl run last year. He took 14 carries for 97 yards, and led the NFL in yards after contact last week. He also played 70% of the snaps. The biggest concern for fantasy owners was his lack of red zone usage. Malcolm Brown, despite playing on only 27% of snaps, was able to garner to short yardage rushing TDs, leading owners to assume that Gurley will cede redzone work to Brown in most situations. While we expect Brown to continue to be heavily involved, and he makes for a high upside handcuff with low end flex standalone value, there is some luck involved with the split. During the drives Gurley was featured, the Rams either didn’t score or ended up with a passing TD. In the drives that Brown was featured, the Rams were able to punch it in on the ground. This situation requires close monitoring, but we still see Gurley as a low end RB1 and are hopeful that he will get some opportunities for high value carries. Consider Gurley a must start, especially after watching Carlos Hyde carve up New Orleans last week, and Malcolm Brown a decent flex who gets an upgrade in standard leagues. Darrell Henderson is a non factor at this point, playing only 3% of snaps last week. Score Prediction: Saints 35, Rams 31
Philadelphia’s offensive weapons were on full display in last week’s come from behind win against Washington. Carson Wentz’s target distribution - Desean Jackson (10), Zach Ertz (7), Alshon Jeffery (6), Nelson Agholor (5), Dallas Goedert (3), Darren Sproles (3), Jordan Howard (3), Miles Sanders (2). Despite their overall slow start, Wentz put up an impressive Week 1 fantasy performance with 300+ and 3 TD. Considering the wealth of riches at the skill positions for Philly, Wentz is a weekly high end QB1. This week is no different. Although the Falcons did not give up many passing yards last week, that’s due to Cousins’ 10 pass attempts rather than some huge performance by the Atlanta secondary. He should be in all lineups this weekend in the second highest projected scoring game of the week. Desean Jackson (upgrade) proved he hasn’t lost a step by going off for 152 yards and 2 TD. Most will focus on his 2 long TDs, and those were impressive, but look closer and it becomes clear Wentz trusts Jackson on short and intermediate routes as well. He led the team with 142 air yards, but his aDOT was a more even 14.2 yards. That number accounts for the fact he was targeted at all different levels, not just on deep throws down the field. Jackson is a solid WR2 in a high scoring game, and his matchups on the outside and with deep safeties are not imposing. Alshon Jeffery was not as heavily utilized as Jackson, but his redzone opportunities more than made up for it. If Jeffery remains 3rd on the target priority, he will be more WR3 than WR2, as he won’t get in the endzone every game. But he should be in lineups in this projected shootout. Zach Ertz is a locked and loaded elite TE1, and Dallas Goedert is left to grab only scraps behind him. Nelson Agholor does not need to be owned as long as Jackson and Jeffery are healthy. Last week showed the Eagles are yet again committed to a RBBC. Jordan Howard (upgrade standard) got involved on early downs, but ended with only 6 carries. His 23% snap rate was third among RBs. He looked excellent on his limited opportunities, and has a great chance to produce this week against a weak ATL rush defense. However, his role is far too inconsistent to trust outside of deeper leagues. He’s a risky flex with a low floor, but some good upside in this matchup. Miles Sanders (upgrade) got almost have of the snaps, and finished 12 touches. His TD run was called back for holding, but showed his impressive skills in the open field. He’ll be an upside flex option, who’s involvement in the passing gives him a better floor than Howard. Unfortunately for both, Darren Sproles involvement continues to sap their value a bit. Owners will hope that Sproles gets fewer touches as the season goes on, but as long as he is getting consistent work, this backfield is unlikely to produce a top 15 weekly RB option.
Falcons
Matt Ryan’s target share from last week - Julio Jones (11), Austin Hooper (9), Calvin Ridley (6), Mohamed Sanu (6), Justin Hardy (5), Devonta Freeman (4), Ito Smith (1).Matt Ryan (upgrade) basically bombed last week, but his fantasy line ended up mostly respectable. Going against an Eagles defense that just got burned by Case Keenum, and playing at his home dome field, expect Ryan to have a big week. Julio Jones (upgrade) had a low yardage week but got in the endzone, in a complete reversal of his early weeks from last year. Jones admitted he was still not quite 100% and a bit rusty after barely practicing in training camp, but he is in a great smash spot this week. He has historically had great success against the Eagles, and his 11 targets last week proved he is the clear lead dog even when things aren’t going well. If he gets more consistent red zone looks this year, watch out. Calvin Ridley (upgrade) should also be in line for a productive day, and will get good matchups in the Eagles boundary CB’s. Austin Hooper’s 9 targets gave owners belief that he can take another step forward into consistent high end TE value this year. In what should be a high scoring fast paced game, expect Hooper to be targeted heavily, and get at least one or two red zone looks. Mohamed Sanu and Justin Hardy are better real life players than fantasy producers, and neither are relevant as long as Jones and Ridley are healthy. Devonta Freeman was one of the biggest disappointments in relation to his ADP in Week 1. The game script was negative right from the beginning as ATL was down 14-0 before they could even catch their breath. Freeman’s 50% snap rate could be shrugged off as merely a product of this game flow, but there are other concerning trends. Ito Smith was heavily involved, and at times even looked like the superior runner. He averaged over 5 yards a carry to Freeman’s 2.4. Smith also received a good amount of red zone work, and his 50% snap rate has to be worrying to Freeman owners. Freeman was the higher graded pass protector by a large margin (PFF) so he is certainly not in danger of losing his role on passing downs. However, for a guy taken in the top 40 of most drafts, it looks like we may be looking at a lower end RB2 rather than the low end RB1 that most were hoping for. Malik Jackson’s injury is an upgrade for ATL’s rushing offense, but this is all about volume. I would give Freeman the benefit of the doubt and start him in this likely shootout, but keep a close eye on Ito Smith’s involvement. Smith is nothing more than a valuable stash for Freeman owners looking to hedge their bets. Score Prediction: Falcons 31, Eagles 28
Patrick Mahomes target spread from Week 1 - Sammy Watkins (11), Travis Kelce (8), Damien Williams (6), Demcarcus Robinson (2), Tyreek Hill (2), Darwin Thompson (1), LeSean McCoy (1), Mecole Hardman (1). Tyreek Hill’s injury was a big storyline from Week 1. He’s out at least 4-6 weeks, and Sammy Watkins’ (upgrade) big performance last week is a harbinger of things to come. Finally fully healthy, Watkins has top 5 WR potential as the lead target for the best QB in the league. He should be locked into lineups. Mecole Hardman (upgrade), despite receiving only 1 target, became an every down player and Hill’s injury. Although it’s tough to start him this week due to uncertainty of role, he needs to be owned in all leagues for his incredible upside in this offense. This would be a good week to start him in DFS, or deeper leagues for those in need of a Hill replacement, as the Raiders secondary has been decimated by injuries. If Hardman’s preseason performances are an indication, he should get a few high value looks throughout the game. Demarcus Robinson is a WR4 that may have some big weeks but will likely be too inconsistent to trust. Travis Kelce remains the top play at TE, and should be in line for a big week. Damien Williams (upgrade PPR) 66% snap count is encouraging, but keep in mind Lesean McCoy (29%) has only been in KC for 2 weeks. If McCoy can carve out an even timeshare with Williams, both will be RB2/flex plays. In what projects as the highest scoring game of the week, start McCoy and Williams in all lineups. This situation is worth close monitoring for owners invested in the backfield. Darwin Thompson is only a handcuff in deeper leagues, and can be cut loose for more productive waiver options.
Raiders
Derek Carr’s target distribution - Darren Waller (8), Tyrell Williams (7), Ryan Grant (4), Hunter Renfrow (3), Foster Moreau (2), Josh Jacobs (1). Derek Carr played like a guy who is more comfortable in his offense after a full year to get accustomed. Despite losing his most talented weapon, Carr was more willing to take shots downfield and was sharp throughout. Against the Chiefs leaky secondary that allowed rookie Gardner Minshew to carve them up, Carr is a solid QB1 with potential to be a top 3 scorer this week. Darren Waller (upgrade) was Carr’s favorite target, and will be busy on short to intermediate routes as Carr’s safety valve. He gets an additional upgrade in PPR leagues, as he will see 6+ targets on high percentage throws virtually every game. Tyrell Williams (upgrade) showed great chemistry with his QB, and Carr’s willingness to make downfield throws has breathed new life into Williams’ value. He’s a high end WR2 this week with WR1 upside. His 17.9 yards aDOT makes gives his targets additional value. He only needs to cash in 2-3 of those looks to be worthy of a start. As the top outside option against a bad secondary, that should be extremely likely this week. Hunter Renfrow (upgrade PPR) will continue to get a few targets each week, but is not nearly as valuable in standard leagues. This would be a good week to start him in deeper leagues, but beware he’s not a consistent option at this point. Josh Jacobs was a workhorse last week, with a 74% snap share, and with Jalen Richard receiving only 1 touch last week it would appear Jacobs has solidified his status as an every down back. The only concern this week is that the Raiders are forced to throw early and often in this one, which would decrease Jacobs’ rushing attempts. But assuming he remains on the field over Richard, his involvement in the passing game keeps him as a high end RB2. He should be in lineups this week, and owners will want to monitor if Richard gets more work in the passing game this week. Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Raiders 24 Roto_G:
The Steelers looked like a different team without Antonio Brown, struggling to move the ball and lacking big play ability in Week 1 against the reigning Super Bowl champs. Ben Roethlisberger’s (upgrade) Week 1 target distribution - Donte Moncrief (10), JuJu Smith-Schuster (8), James Washington (6), Ryan Switzer (6), Diontae Johnson (5), James Connor (4), Vance McDonald (4), Johnny Holton (2), Jaylen Samuels (2). Big Ben looked awful in Week 1, as did the rest of the team. If you started him, it’s probably hard to trust him this week even with a good matchup against a Seahawks secondary that allowed Andy Dalton to roll up 418 passing yards and two touchdowns. Ben sits on the QB1 borderline in what projects to be a bounce week for the Steelers. He is historically much more productive in fantasy when at home. Donte Moncrief surprisingly drew more targets than Juju Smith-Schuster, and did absoluting nothing with them - grabbing an abysmal 3 of 10 targets for 7 yards and dropped a touchdown in the 3rd quarter. The target share was probably a symptom of the Patriots taking away the Steelers best wide out and forcing the others to beat them - a classic Belichick move. Moncrief is a WR4 and a risky play moving forward. Juju figures to command the lion's share of targets in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league and remains a WR1 against the underwhelming Seahawks cornerbacks. James Washington drew the second most Air Yards in Week 1 with 169, only behind DeAndre Hopkins (216). The issue with Washington is going to be snap rate, as he only saw 52% while Moncrief and Juju saw 90% each. Washington remains a boom or bust WR4 this week but after what John Ross did to the Hawks, it seems more likely he booms. James Connor is locked into the workhorse role, seeing 32 snaps compared to Jaylen Samuels 23 in a negative game script Week 1. He also out touched Samuels 14 to 3. Connor is an RB1 in a touch matchup (Seattle allowed only 8 fantasy points to Cincinnati). The matchup may not be as imposing as the stats suggest - Joe Mixon was injured in Week 1 and the Bengals adopted to pass most of the game, throwing 52 times vs 13 rushing attempts.
Seahawks
The Seahawks again look to be an extremely run-heavy team in 2019 and Russel Wilson's (upgrade) target distribution should set off alarm bells for owners who invested in the Seahawks receivers. Wilson's targets Week 1 - Chris Carson (7), D.K. Metalf (6), Nick Vannett (2), Tyler Lockett (2), Will Dissly (2). A popular 4th round pick in fantasy drafts, Tyler Lockett (upgrade) made the most of his targets, netting a catch for 44 yards. Owners are probably ready to press the eject button, but not so fast - inside receivers have feasted on the Steelers defense the last few years. In Week 1, Phillip Dorsett roasted nickel cornerback Mike Hilton, who will be Locketts primary defender, several times en route to a 95 yard, two touchdown day. Lockett is still a WR2 and expect him to bounce back, he also mentioned after the Bengals game that he was doubled several times in that game, something he said he hadn’t seen since college. Keep in eye on Lockett’s status as he has missed a couple practices this week, but there is nothing to suggest he is in danger of missing Week 2. Maybe the double team on Lockett is why D.K. Metcalf saw the most targets of the receivers. Either way, Metcalf remains a touchdown dependant WR4 and is a risky high ceiling low floor play. David Moore is expected to remain sidelined for a couple more weeks and Jaron Brown should be a non-factor. Will Dissley and Nick Vannett are not recommended tight end options in any format. Chris Carson (upgrade) is locked and loaded as the workhorse for the Hawks and is a solid RB1 in a good matchup. The Steelers defense gave up 99 yards on the ground to New England Week 1, but this could have been higher had the Patriots not shredded them through the air instead. Carson will see the volume, passing game work and goal line touches to make him matchup proof; he is shaping up to be one of the steals of fantasy drafts in 2019. Rashaad Penny is no more than a handcuff/bench stash, it’s possible that Penny may be more involved as the season progresses but can’t be trusted in lineups for now. Score Prediction: Steelers 24 Seahawks 21
In an absolute bore of an NFL opener for fans, the Bears lost to the Packers 10 - 3. Mitchell Trubisky’s (downgrade) target distribution Week 1 - Allen Robinson (13), Tarik Cohen (10), Mike Davis (7), Taylor Gabriel (5), Cordarrelle Patterson (3), Adam Shaheen (2), Javon Wims (2), Anthony Miller (1). Trubisky looked awful last week and it stands to reason that Matt Nagy will try to establish the run game in Week 2. The Bears only ran the ball 15 times vs 45 pass attempts in Week 1 and the opposite is expected moving forward. Trubisky is no more than a high floor QB2. Rotoworld projects Allen Robinson to be shadowed by Chris Harris Jr while PFF does not project shadow coverage. Either way, Robinson will look to produce in another projected low scoring game and remains a WR2. Tarik Cohen (upgrade PPR) looked more like the starting slot receiver than a running back and figures to be heavily utilized again in the short passing game. Maybe he was used in the slot so much because Anthony Miller is making his way back from injury, but Miller isn’t a viable option until he receives a larger portion of the target share and proves he’s fully healthy. The Bears do not have a recommended tight end play. Mike Davis looked like the starting running back or at least the lead back in the RBBC Week 1. David Montgomery inexplicably only received 28 snaps, compared to 51 for Cohen and 41 for Davis. Montgomery passed the eye test and looked like the more explosive back, but Mike Davis is apparently the best pass blocker of the three. It appears Montgomery will be extremely sensitive to game-script and when the Bears look to pass, it will be Davis on the field. Davis and Montgomery are both extremely hard to trust this week due to uncertainty of role, and hopefully Nagy comes to his senses and tries to establish the run and rely on the defense instead of Trubisky’s arm.
Broncos
The Broncos were upset by the Raiders last week. It was especially surprising to see considering the Raiders perceived dysfunction during the Antonio Brown saga, plus the inside the organization look during HBO’s Hard Knocks. Joe Flacco’s target distribution Week 1 - Courtland Sutton (8), Emmanuel Sanders (7), Phillip Lindsay (6), Noah Fant (5), Daesean Hamilton (4), Royce Freeman (1). No shadow matchups are expected, but the entire Denver offense receives a downgrade due to playing the Bears vaunted defense. The game is expected to be a defensive slugfest and the Denver offense should be faded if possible. Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders sit on the WR3/WR4 borderline in an extremely tough matchup. Keep in mind that this is the secondary that limited Aaron Rodgers to 203 yards passing and one touchdown Week 1. Noah Fant looked good last week and along with TJ Hockenson, is trying to buck the trend that rookie tight ends don’t produce. This isn’t the time to get cute and play him, he’s no more than a bench stash. Phillip Lindsay (upgrade) ** and **Royce Freeman split carries in Week 1, with Lindsay getting 11 to Freeman’s 10. The RBBC is in full-effect in Denver and when Theo Reddick returns from injury this backfield will become extremely crowded. Neither Freeman or Lindsay are recommended plays this week against a ferocious Bears defense, but Lindsay receives the slight upgrade due to his involvement in the passing game. The Broncos will mostly likely utilize shorts passes to try and move the ball against. Moving forward it’s going to be extremely hard to recommend either, as they are siphoning value away from each other. Score Prediction: Bears 27 Broncos 17
The Browns have now lost 13 opening games in a row, an NFL record. I wish I had heard about the streak before making them my survivor pool pick… Baker Mayfield’s target distribution in Week 1 - Odell Beckham Jr (11), Jarvis Landry (7), David Njoku (6), Nick Chubb (4), Rashard Higgins (3), Dontrell Hillard (2), D’ernest Johnson (2), Damion Ratley (2), Demetruis Harris (1). The Browns struggled in Week 1 and no fantasy player boomed and most were left with mediocre days. Odell Beckham Jr (upgrade) will likely be facing Trumaine Johnson, Rotoworld projects shadow coverage while PFF does not. This is a matchup that OBJ can win as Johnson graded out as ‘below average’ (PFF) in coverage Week 1, and the deep ball would be aided if LB C.J. Mosley and DT Quinnen Williams sit. Odds are that the Browns get back on track this week and OBJ finds the endzone for the first time as a Brown wearing his $190,000 watch. Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) faces an exploitable matchup against SCB Brian Poole and will remain a low-end WR2. Rishard Higgins draws the best matchup of the three against Darryl Roberts and remains in WR4 consideration. David Njoku caught a touchdown last week and was targeted enough to remain a TE1. He may be a bit touchdown dependant but you could do worse at the position. Nick Chubb to the dismay of fantasy owners was not on the field for the red zone rush attempt of the season for the Browns, rather, Dontrell Hilliard punched the ball in for a touchdown. This should not be a regular occurrence as Hilliard only saw 13 snaps to Chubb’s 51. Look for Chubb along with the rest of the Browns to get back on track this week - the Jets were steamrolled for 128 yards on the ground against the Bills and Chubb is in the mix for the overall RB1 finish in Week 2.
Jets
It’s been announced that Sam Darnold has mononucleosis and will miss a significant chunk of time, a crushing blow for an organization that was expected to improve in 2019. It’ll be the Trevor ‘Checkdown’ Siemian show for Monday Night Football; this is an obvious downgrade for the entire Jets offense. Jamison Crowder (upgrade PPR) figures to be a safety valve for the former Broncos quarterback and should see plenty of volume. Robbie Anderson (downgrade) draws a tough matchup in Denzel Ward - with the backup QB’s inability to throw the deep ball, Anderson is a fade for the foreseeable future. Quincy Enunwa’s season has been cut short with a neck injury and he has been placed on IR. Recently acquired Demaryius Thomas will slide into the starting lineup and isn’t a fantasy option. Tight end Ryan Griffin appears to be at the bottom of the target totem pole and owners will most likely find success looking elsewhere for production. There is a chance he is an active target against a Browns defense that was destroyed by Delanie Walker last week, but it’s a risky endeavor to play him. Chris Herndon is eligible to return from suspension Week 6. Le’veon Bell (limited in practice Friday) had a precautionary MRI on his shoulder early in the week but appears to be on track for Week 2. The Titans ground attack absolutely ripped the Browns in Week 1 to the tune of 123 rushing yards. Bell should see the volume to produce as an RB1 and will be heavily involved in the short passing game as well. With Bell healthy, Ty Montgomery should remain on benches as a handcuff. Score Prediction: Browns 27, Jets 17
Welcome to the second installment of the Running Back Rankings Breakdown! We have gone through and projected the starting running back for each NFL team, and we will look in depth at each running backs unique situation. This article will cover the remaining 16 teams, organized alphabetically. If you missed part 1, make sure to check it out! Some teams use primary passing backs or look likely to have a committee, and for those teams we will break down and rate more than one RB. Finally, you will also see the players ADP (sourced from Fantasypros at .5ppr) and our recommendation for a reach or fade on this ADP. +5 means we recommend reaching 5 spots higher than ADP, -5 means we recommend fading 5 spots lower than ADP. We will update this article as new and important information comes out throughout the preseason, especially if it affects the rankings!
Los Angeles Chargers
This is perhaps the single most interesting backfield for fantasy purposes. It appears that Melvin Gordon’s holdout is the most likely one to extend in-season, and there’s also a small chance he is traded. In either of these scenarios, his backups take center stage. Austin Ekeler is the better known commodity, having finished last season as the 6th ranked RB, and 5th best receiving RB via PFF (albeit small-ish sample size). Justin Jackson is a sophomore back that looked underrated as a 7th rd. pick, and appears to be excelling in camp. These two would form an impressive combo should Gordon in fact not be in the starting lineup come week 1. Based on what we can expect of their usage without Gordon, but keeping in mind the possibility he could return at any point, both their opportunity scores reflect the uncertainty. However, both are talented, and Ekeler has the NFL tape to back it up. The Chargers O-Line looks to be a bottom 3rd unit on paper, so that is a slight downgrade. However, the offense looks explosive, and we know how creatively OC Ken Whisenhunt uses RBs in this offense. Ekeler is an exciting pick in the late middle rounds as he could be an RB1 for the weeks Gordon misses. But the incentive for Gordon to return by midseason (his contract tolls to next season if he doesn’t) means it may end up being a very expensive handcuff. Stashing Jackson as a cheap lottery throw (in lieu of selecting of a DEF for example) seems like a savvy veteran fantasy move. If Gordon signs, you can cut him anytime. *The rankings below are if the season started TODAY, with still no resolution to the Gordon saga. If Gordon is traded, upgrade both. If he signs, then we are back to Gordon being a top 6 RB and Ekeler being a top handcuff in fantasy, with some standalone FLEX value. Austin Ekeler ADP: 75.0 Fade: -5 Justin Jackson ADP: 163 - Reach: +10
Los Angeles Rams
If you follow fantasy football then you know the nosedive Todd Gurley’s value took at the end of last season. His knee issue caused owners headaches, and potentially cost the Rams a Superbowl. Now with a full off-season to get healthy, the questions remain: can Gurley play 16 games, and will the Rams let him? There is perhaps no player being taken in the top-15 with more risk (excluding holdouts) so if you are going to take him, you may want to make sure you get two other solid running backs in the first 4-5 rounds. If the Rams play it smart and reduce his workload, a 15-20 touch per game Gurley could still easily be an RB1. Gurley is being drafted right around RBs Joe Mixon, and James Conner, so if you draft him, you are betting that he can match both of those players. Personally, I will be avoiding Gurley in my drafts, but not because I think he is washed up or guaranteed to get re-injured. Instead, I am weary of selecting a player in the 1st round who could randomly sit out games for rest, especially during the fantasy playoffs (if the Rams lock-up a playoff spot) and don’t want to build my team around a guy with which we have absolutely no clarity on his medical status. Both of the previously mentioned players have question marks, but we also know that neither of them have a potentially degenerative injury, and each seem ticketed for a workhorse role in offenses that will be heavily reliant on them. Additionally, drafting Gurley’s handcuff, Darrell Henderson, will cost you a 6th or 7th round pick, which is where you normally are selecting players for your starting lineup. It might be feasible to draft both and start both on a given week, but then you are extremely reliant on the Rams and investing two starting spots to get the statistics of what you would hope you would get from one. For me, Gurley would have to drop to the end of the second round to be a reasonable value, because then you likely got an elite back in the first round to pair with him. Because of the injury and wear on his knees, Gurley’s talent score takes a hit, and his opportunity score suffers due to the clear investment in quality supporting RBs. His team build score remains top notch due to the Rams explosive offense, but I would much prefer to tap into that by selecting Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, or Cooper Kupp. His backup, Darrell Henderson, is an intriguing handcuff, but one that will likely cost you a premium in drafts. He goes in the same rounds that owners are still choosing starters. This means that you are either weakening your starting lineup, or you will be starting two running backs from the same backfield every week. Draft Gurley at your own risk and make sure he is not the only RB you select in the first 3 rounds. Todd Gurley ADP: 13 Fade: -5 Darrell Henderson ADP: 88.0 Fade: -5
Miami Dolphins
Ticketed to be the worst team in the NFL this year, the Dolphins are in a full rebuild. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t fantasy value to be had. Kenyan Drake was a huge disappointment last year, and did little to assuage fears that he is simply not a workhorse back to be trusted. But he is a talented player who has shown flashes of true superstar talent. Kalen Ballage was largely inefficient and did not show much in his rare appearances last year. But with Frank Gore gone, you would think one of these players has to step up? I’m not so sure. The Dolphins will field one of the poorer offensive lines, and will likely employ at QB a certain magician that we all know well. Think back to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Tampa Bay’s first half last season: their defense and O-Line were atrocious, and Fitz threw so many bombs to Desean Jackson and Mike Evans that the running game was a complete afterthought. That seems like a pretty relevant comparison to the situation in Miami. Drake is seemingly overpriced at his current ADP considering the uncertainty of this offense and his potential role in it. However, I would be fine with taking Ballage in the double digit rounds, simply because he appears like the perfect player to benefit from garbage time. He has blazing speed, decent hands, and is a young player that Miami will want to evaluate as they move forward in their rebuild. I would fade Drake at his current cost and look to secure Ballage if he falls. Don’t count on him a weekly starter, but stash him in hopes that he can carve out a useful weekly role that you can exploit during bye weeks or in case of injuries.
Kenyan Drake has been ruled out the remainder of pre-season and is now Questionable for the regular season opener (The Fins are hopeful he will be ready Week 1). I have downgraded Drake’s opportunity due to missed reps and additional chances for Ballage to impress. Follow closely, but beware of paying an early round price for Ballage when huge question marks (talent, offense) remain.
After the Vikings switched to O-coordinator Kevin Stefanski last year in early December, something clicked in their run game that translated to Dalvin Cook finishing the year on a high note. Stefanski was rewarded for his work with the “interim O-coordinator” tag removed heading into 2019. With a potentially much improved offensive line (draft, FA, and better health), and an offense that will look to continue the end of 2018s success, this could be one of the better running teams in the NFL this year. At the center of that success will hopefully be Dalvin Cook. As a former second round pick going into his 3rd year, Cook wants to show that the injuries of the past are just that, in the past. Now two years removed from major knee surgery, the odds of him making good on that seem much improved. Cook does not need to be a 25+ touch a game player to return RB1 value. He is one of the better pass catching backs in the game, can break a home run play at any time, and can be used in any situation and in any game script. With 20 touches a week he can return top 12 RB value, especially in PPR formats. If he has an entire year to break off the explosive plays he has shown in spurts before, he has the upside for a top 5 finish. The only thing holding his score back is the injury risk. He is a high risk-high reward player, but one that seems worth it. Make sure you pair him with another RB in the first 4 rounds that has fewer risks. And absolutely MAKE SURE to get his projected handcuff Alexander Mattison. Mattison would become a solid upside RB2 in the event that Cook missed time. Dalvin Cook ADP: 19.0 Reach: +4
New England Patriots
Last year, the Patriots produced two very relevant fantasy RBs. Pass catching extraordinaire James White was the highest finisher and most consistent weekly performer. His backfield partner Sony Michel dealt with injuries, but when healthy showed to be an effective runner with excellent TD upside. This year, those backs return, along with perennial short-yardage vulture Rex Burkhead, and the Patriots also drafted a talented RB in the third round, Damien Harris. To say this backfield is unclear heading into the year would be an understatement. However, we can glean a few things to help clear the picture. First, James White will likely continue to be the main man in passing situations. As a 3rd down and 2 minute drill specialist, White will have a solid weekly floor. Second, a healthy Michel is a potential game changer for this offense, one who could carry them on some weeks. And third, spending an early pick on either of these backs is a risky proposition considering the uncertainty. The Patriots have an above average offensive line, and based on team structure, a heavy dose of running and short passes sets up a lot of potential value for the RBs. The question is who will get the volume? In a PPR league, White is absolute gold, and in standard, Michel seems worthy of a dice roll. But at their current ADPs, there isn’t much room for error. If Damien Harris gets into the mix, we could be looking at a 3 headed monster. Another thing to consider for those who are risk averse, Michel’s knees are a major red flag. Draft with caution, but look for either of the two projected starters (White and Michel) if they slide in drafts. Or target Damien Harris if he slips to the late rounds, if you want to get a piece of the offense without the high price tag. James White ADP: 51.0 Fade: -5 Sony Michel ADP: 47.0 Fade: -10 Damien Harris ADP: 136.0 Reach: +5
New Orleans Saints
Gone is Mark Ingram and in comes Latavius Murray. I don’t advocate for taking backs that are game script and TD dependent, so I will likely not get Murray in any leagues. The real story here is perhaps the most explosive and elusive back in the league, Alvin Kamara. Coaches insist that his usage is not expected to rise this year and I’m buying their hesitancy to have him in a 25+ touch/game role. What I’m not buying is the idea that Kamara is anything less than a top 3 pick this year. He plays in a great offense with a QB who’s trending towards lower volume but high efficiency. Kamara is the rare back that will be involved on early downs, passing situations, and the redzone/goal line. For this reason, he has a high weekly floor, and his ceiling on a given week is higher than perhaps any other back. New Orleans knows its window to win a title with Brees is closing, so they will do whatever it takes to get there this year. Just look at the Marcus Davenport selection in last year’s NFL draft, it was a win-now move that lacked foresight. The entire organization is committed to going for the title, and that will mean plenty of Kamara every single week. There’s an argument to be made for him over CMC, and if you hate the idea of a back on a bad offense, he has a case for #1 overall. If he gets to you at three or four, make your selection and start figuring out who you’ll pair with him in the second round. Alvin Kamara ADP: 3.0 Reach: +1
New York Giants
Is Daniel Jones the answer? NY fans certainly hope so. It does not sound like he will get the chance to show his worth in games that count any time soon, but it is hard to believe Eli will start 16 games. However, Saquon Barkley’s role in the offense will not be affected. He is the most complete and talented true running back, perhaps the league has ever seen. The Giants have worked to upgrade their O-line in the past year and stacked boxes did little to stop Barkley last year. The only thing holding back Barkley is the grind of an entire season as the lone offensive weapon for a team that will likely lose A LOT of games. That can take a toll on a player both physically and mentally and now that Barkley is a known commodity, it may be tougher for him to shoulder the expectations of an entire franchise and fan-base. I have to think that if he were to pick up a minor injury in the middle or tail end of a lost season (assuming NY is as bad as projected) there would be no reason to rush him back. This is all nit-picking of a truly elite talent, and he will likely make me look foolish for ever doubting him. The main reason this all resonates with me is that I was unfortunate enough to own Todd Gurley in his 2nd year in the league, when the Rams were so bad that it actually stifled a healthy Gurley’s All-Pro talent. I just have an eerie feeling that this year may bring some of that misfortune to Barkley. No matter what the circumstances this year, facing the clock at #1 it’s going to be hard not to pull the trigger. Just know that doing so means you are selecting a player who will be asked to do it ALL for his team. Knowing Barkley, he is probably up to the challenge. Saquon Barkley ADP: 1.0 Fade: N/A
New York Jets
Adam Gase takes over a Jets team that seems confused as to whether it’s trying to rebuild or contend. Gase oversaw an incredibly slow paced Dolphins team the past three years, but the Fins also had a much less talented offense. The centerpiece of Gase’s new offense is Le’Veon Bell, who spent last year breaking the hearts of fantasy owners everywhere. Now that he’s back and getting up to speed with his new offense, it seems Bell is headed for a true workhorse role. What has many in the fantasy community concerned is his downgrade in O-line, QB, and coaching scheme from his PIT years. Still, a high volume role for the Jets should lead to RB1 numbers, health permitting. The real debate seems to be between David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, as both have almost identical ADPs. Drafting 5th or 6th means likely making the decision between these two, or picking your favorite WR. I personally tend to lean towards DJ, because even in a bad offense with horrendous QB play, he was a top 10 RB last year. In an up tempo offense that will need to score a lot, DJ looks poised to break right back into the upper tier of RBs. Bell may be hamstrung by a slower paced offense and a defense that may be able to grind opposing teams into a slower pace as well. Plus, this entire Jets situation looks like it could blow up at any time, and we all know how much off-field distractions can impact on-field performance. If he slips into the late 1st, it’s hard to pass on his projected massive workload, but early to mid - 1st round, I’m having a hard time buying that Bell will be able to replicate his PIT numbers and be a top 3 RB. Le’Veon Bell ADP: 7.0 Fade: -4
Oakland Raiders
If you’ve been watching Hard Knocks (HBO) the past two weeks, you’ve probably seen more clips of Jon Gruden yelling obscenities at grown men than you ever wanted to. What you haven’t seen much of is rookie RB Josh Jacobs out of Alabama. On Twitter, Jacobs claimed he has been “hiding from them”, which may be a wise strategy to stay out of the all-consuming spotlight. This strategy has deprived viewers of the chance to get to know the extremely talented odds-on Rookie of the Year favorite. What we do know is Jacobs will get all the touches he can handle in an offense that likes to run the ball in the red zone. What we don’t know is whether the Raiders will have a consistently productive offense in 2019, with question marks ranging from Derek Carr’s true abilities to Antonio Brown’s effectiveness to disrupt an entire franchise with his antics. However, I was surprised to find in my research for consistency ratings, that last year Marshawn Lynch actually finished with a “RB2+” score (>11.5 points .5ppr) in 67% of his games played. It seems the volume of touches Gruden likes to give his lead back, combined with their tendency to run the ball in the red zone leading to TDs, gave Lynch a higher floor than most backs like him that didn’t have a big passing game role. Jacobs looks likely to finish with more catches than Lynch last year while maintaining the overall weekly volume. He may not be the sexiest upside rookie (that belongs to David Montgomery or maybe Miles Sanders) but he is definitely the safest. If you can get him as your RB2 in the 4th, it seems a safe bet he will provide you with solid weekly numbers that can anchor your lineup. Don’t underestimate volume and opportunity combined with young, fresh legs. Josh Jacobs ADP: 37.0 Reach: +2
Philadelphia Eagles
It seems like a generation ago that Lesean McCoy was manning the Eagles backfield as a dominant and explosive workhorse back. The past few years have seen timeshares and RBBC's that have frustrated owners to no end. This year appears similar on paper with veteran grinder Jordan Howard competing with talented rookie Miles Sanders, mixed in with a sprinkle of low end pass catching and vulture type backs. Here is where the Lesean McCoy reference actually provides some potential insight into this year’s situation. By all accounts, Sanders is the most talented back the Eagles have had since McCoy, and actually seems to have some similarities to Shady in his prime. I’m not saying he is as good as McCoy was in his prime, but it feels like he has some special traits. The reason that I’m bullish on Sanders this year is because he has a lot of paths to fantasy success. He could be a great change of pace and passing game complement to Howard, and be a PPR producer that makes a great FLEX play. He could find a good all around role, grabbing 10-15 carries and some catches each game, and benefit from the space that comes with an explosive offense with a plethora of weapons. Or maybe, in a best case scenario, he shows what it takes to get a 3 down role and is the perfect back to complete the Eagles offense and make them a Superbowl threat. In that case, he has the upside for a high end RB2 or even a lower end RB1 status. At his reasonable price tag of a mid round RB3, he is definitely worth the gamble (and maybe even a reach). Don’t let the lack of immediate opportunity scare you. This guy is talented and will get every chance to be a 20 touch per game player by mid season. Even if he is more in the 15 touch range, he will have no problem being a useful flex option, especially in PPR leagues. Miles Sanders ADP: 79.0 Reach: +10 Jordan Howard ADP: 98.0 Fade: -5
Pittsburgh Steelers
This will be a drastically different offense than the one that took the field only two years ago. With Le’veon and AB gone, Juju and James Conner now move into the elite status. The question for Conner is, does he deserve to be ranked there? Let’s take a close look at his situation entering 2019. The offensive line is a strength, ranking as a top 3 line (PFF) heading into the season. Big Ben had the most volume heavy season of his career last year, but only finished as the 16th highest graded QB (PFF). Perhaps the heavy volume was part of the reason for his lower grade, and a return to a more balanced offense may be in store this year. One of the problems last year was a defense that could not stop the run. The Steelers attempted to address this in the off-season and Devin Bush looked unbelievable in pre-season action, but only time will tell if it will make a real difference this year. Now that we understand the team situation, let’s look at Conner and his presumed backup Jaylen Samuels more closely. Conner was a monster the first half of last year, and looked on his way to a top 3 RB finish. However, a knee injury forced him to miss 3 games and when he returned in the final week, he was not the same workhorse he had been. Samuels was used mostly in passing situations last year, but looked more than capable of being a part of a RBBC. Additionally, the Steelers drafted an early down grinder back, Benny Snell, who looks perfect for short yardage and/or goal line situations. Conner should remain the lead back, but perhaps not the bellcow he was for most of 2018. However, playing behind an elite offensive line in what should be an excellent offense, the talented Conner should be able to return RB1 level value. Samuels is also an intriguing late round flier for standalone PPR value and the possibility of an increased role as the season goes on. He also is a must-draft handcuff for all Conner owners. James Conner ADP: 11.0 Fade: -5 Jaylen Samuels ADP: 114.0 Reach: +10
San Francisco 49ers
The SF backfield is beginning to take shape as we move through the pre-season. Jerick McKinnon remains sidelined with his knee recovery from last year, and it appears he had a setback that may force him on IR for some or all of the season. That leaves Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. Coleman seems the favorite for early down work, and his history with Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta has many projecting him to be the strong #1 back with Breida backing him up. Based on tape from last year, I believe Breida brings an element of explosiveness that even the speedy Tevin Coleman can’t match, so look for Breida to be as involved as his body will allow him to be. SF trots out a mid level O-line, with a QB who has a large range of potential outcomes this year. Jimmy G has shown flashes of brilliance, flashes of mediocrity, and much larger flashes of inability to stay on the field. As it stands now, I project Tevin Coleman to be the lead back in solid offense, with the potential to be involved in all facets of the game, especially the redzone. This would leave him about 17-20 total touches a game, with some solid TD upside. Breida would then be used to spell Coleman, and at times be used out wide for gadget plays. I would project him about 10-12 touches a game, which would greatly increase the odds of him staying healthy. With these projections, I would have Coleman as a high end RB2, and Breida as a solid weekly flex option. There is room for movement, but for now this backfield looks much more resolved than we thought two weeks ago. Target Coleman after the safer RB2s go off the board, however, you will likely need to reach as he is going above his ADP. Same goes for Breida, who is being taken well above his ADP due to the McKinnon news. They both seem worth the reach. Tevin Coleman ADP: 66.0 Reach: +10 Matt Breida ADP: 125.0 Reach: +25
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle projects to be one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL this year. Despite having the current highest paid QB in the NFL, it seems coach Carroll is determined to win on the ground. The O-line is slightly below average, but veteran stud tackle Duane Brown anchors it and may be able to drag his teammates into a better performance this year. Russell Wilson at QB upgrades the entire offense because of his ability to keep the Hawks in striking distance to win any game.This means that even when Seattle is being outplayed, Wilson can keep the script neutral and allow Seattle the flexibility to continue mixing in the run. However, the defense does not appear strong on paper this year, so that’s a concern for the Seahawks projected rushing volume. It may be possible that the Seahawks are forced to throw more this year due solely to their below average defense. So how does this affect the two relevant fantasy backs, Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny? As of writing this, word out of camp has Carson as the clear starter, with Penny filling the volume that departed Mike Davis’ left (he’s in CHI now). This would leave Carson with the same high rushing volume as last year, plus the coaches are talking up Carson’s ability in the pass game. If this comes to fruition, not only does it help Carson’s PPR value, it also helps bring up his weekly floor. If Seattle is poor defensively and is forced into higher tempo games to outscore opponents, Carson will need to be a fixture in the passing game to maintain consistent value. It appears he is poised to do exactly that. Carson looks as safe as any of the other mid RB2 selections. Penny, despite being a first round pick from 2018, looks like he will be mostly a change of pace back, taking about a third of the total RB touches. In this offense that’s enough for flex value, but at his ADP, it seems like an overpay. Chris Carson ADP: 49.0 Reach: +10 Rashaad Penny ADP: 82.0 Fade: -5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bruce Arians takes over a team that has been an NFL bottom feeder for quite some time. Arians is the latest coach to try and get the most out of Jameis Winston and perhaps he will finally be the one to do it. Winston is coming off a 2018 where he was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick through parts of the season. Tampa Bay projects to have one of the worst defenses in the league this year, and the O-line is only marginally better. There is a chance that with increased health and continuity, Tampa Bay could have at least a league average O-line, but that is no guarantee. Arians looks poised to bring an up-tempo and dynamic offense to TB, but that will not necessarily translate to a successful traditional running game. Ronald Jones, a second round pick in 2018, is seemingly the most talented back on the roster. Peyton Barber, the projected starter, did not look great when given chances last year, but he did look more like an NFL running back than Jones. Perhaps this new offense and new coaching staff can get more out of Jones. Still, the problem remains that the ideal back to get fantasy value out of an offense like TB’s, would be a strong pass catching back. Neither Jones nor Barber have shown to be particularly adept at pass catching, at least not consistently. It seems that TB WANTS Jones to win the job because of the big play ability he offers. It’s just not clear that he has done so yet. I would not advise grabbing Barber, as in the later rounds you should be swinging for more upside. However, I think Jones is a target in the late single or early double digit rounds. He is definitely a target as a stash away RB3 that could come into RB2 value if the game suddenly “clicks” for him. Ronald Jones ADP: 106.0 Reach: +10-15 Peyton Barber ADP: 113.0 Fade: -20-30
Tennessee Titans
Last year’s Titans team was one of the messiest for fantasy value. Marcus Mariota’s injury meant that the entire offense looked about as bad as an offense can look in the NFL for most of the year. However, what happened in the final few weeks of the season grabbed fantasy owners attention. Derrick Henry, who had been dropped in a large number of leagues due to low usage and horrible overall offensive output, suddenly got the workhorse treatment and responded with a complete breakout. For those that hung onto him or were able to pick him up, he won a lot of fantasy championships. With Tennessee's O-line looking healthier to start 2019 than they did to start last season, they go back to being a strong asset, possibly even top 5 in the league. And if Mariota is able to stay healthy, this offense may have a chance to really take off. So what does 2019 look like for Derrick Henry? The Offensive Coordinator seems committed to using Henry as a workhorse back, much like the final few games of 2018. Through training camp so far, Henry has dealt with some minor injuries and missed practice time, and the O-line will have to deal with the suspension of Taylor Lewan for the first four games, and to add to that, Jack Conklin has yet to prove he is 100% healthy at game ready level. What looked like a strength may in fact be a concern this year. Plus, with Henry basically a non-factor in the passing game, he will need to be getting 20+ carries a game to live up to his draft status. To get this volume means he will need a clean bill of health going into Week 1. In .5 or full PPR leagues he is an even riskier bet. Regardless, fantasy owners maintain hope that the end of 2018 showed what a locked in and properly used Henry is capable of. Derrick Henry ADP: 38.0 Fade: -5
Washington Redskins
The Redskins appear headed for a rebuilding year, although the coaching staff and front office does not seem to want to admit it. Case Keenum is the current favorite for starting QB duties, but rookie Dwayne Haskins is nipping at his heels. A once strong WAS O-line has become a concern with the holdout of Trent Williams and the defense seems unlikely to better than middle of the pack. The lack of offensive weapons at wideout is concerning, as Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson, two NON WRs are the best pass catchers on the team. This leaves potential upside starter Derrius Guice in an interesting position. On the one hand, he is an amazing talent that looks close to full health, who could force his way into a big role on a team looking for a spark. On the other hand, this team projects to lose enough games that there may be no real incentive to put miles on Guice in a lost season, rather they may look to save him for next year. I would take the middle ground on this. I think that Guice could start a bit slow and work next to Adrian Peterson while rounding into game shape. Then by week 4 or 5, he can begin to take a larger share of the workload, say ~65% of the carries. He can maintain low end RB2 value through his talent alone, but will be harder pressed to be successful in .5 and full PPR due to the presence of Chris Thompson. With volume likely to be a concern in order to keep Guice healthy and not overwork him, I think an upside FLEX is what he projects to be late season. Then I predict that next year he will be an early round draft pick in fantasy as that will be his breakout year. Draft him this year as your third or fourth running back, but be wary of counting on him in your RB2 slot all year. Derrius Guice ADP: 71.0 (Feels about right) Thanks for reading, @ us on Twitter with any questions @DFAroto. And check out the website for Part 1: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/nfl/running-back-rankings-breakdown-part-1
Players whose snap percentage, utilization and target share are trending upwards
Wendell Smallwood
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
1%
30%
35%
46%
49%
Utilization
0
8
15
10
7
Target Share
0%
2%
14%
10%
11%
RZ Utilization
0
0
5
1
2
Corey Clement
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
18%
42%
55%
-
-
Utilization
5
12
20
-
-
Target Share
0%
13%
11%
-
-
RZ Utilization
2
2
4
-
-
Jay Ajayi
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
40%
28%
-
53%
49%
Utilization
15
8
-
19
9
Target Share
0%
2%
-
8%
3%
RZ Utilization
2
5
-
3
2
Josh Adams
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
-
-
10%
1%
2%
Utilization
-
-
6
0
2
Target Share
-
-
0%
0%
0%
RZ Utilization
-
-
0
0
0
Darren Sproles
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
40%
-
-
-
-
Utilization
12
-
-
-
-
Target Share
20%
-
-
-
-
RZ Utilization
3
-
-
-
-
After a noteworthy Superbowl performance, Clement was touted as an off-season sleeper. Sproles’ involvement in week 1 (40% of the snaps, 20% target share) vs. ATL was significant however and put a damper on the UDFA’s 2018 season outlook. I believe it was Sproles’ and not Ajayi’s injury that gave Clement the biggest boost, especially in PPR as his target share jumped from 0% to 13%. Clement is well-rounded but sometimes struggles with diagnosing holes. I don’t believe he is quite the interior rusher that Ajayi is which is why it is so important for Sproles to be out of the picture - Clement becomes the de facto pass catching back. Smallwood has seen his snap percentage rise each week as the only RB on the team who has managed to stay healthy. He is a fast, tight-hipped runner who will usually only get what’s blocked but PHI’s OL is adept at displacing defenders and Smallwood has exploited that fact to its fullest. He is however a liability in pass protection which why I expect Clement to play on a majority of the 3rd downs/in the hurry up with Smallwood mostly operating on early downs. It’s also important to remember that PHI downplayed the severity of Clement’s quad injury leading up to their week 3 game despite the fact that he wasn’t even remotely close to 100%. Assuming Clement is healthy, he is who I would bet on moving forward although Sproles will almost certainly muddy the waters when he returns. Adams is a darkhorse and someone to keep an eye on in the event that Clement or especially Smallwood were to suffer a significant injury.
Matt Breida
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
45%
41%
43%
63%
13%
Utilization
13
15
13
12
9
Target Share
6%
15%
10%
8%
2%
RZ Utilization
0
5
2
2
2
Alfred Morris
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
52%
48%
34%
23%
45%
Utilization
12
14
14
7
23
Target Share
0%
8%
0%
8%
9%
RZ Utilization
5
2
1
1
3
Kyle Jusczcyk
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
39%
62%
78%
62%
69%
Utilization
2
4
4
3
8
Target Share
6%
15%
13%
8%
13%
RZ Utilization
1
0
1
1
1
I’m not positive as to whether or not it was due to a mid-week knee injury to Morris or Breida’s exceptional play but it seemed as if Breida was well on his way to taking over this backfield after Morris played on a season low 23% of the snaps and was utilized a season low 7 times in week 4. But a first quarter injury in which Breida injured his ankle opened up the door for Morris last week as he was utilized a season high 23 times. With Breida sidelined for at least one week Morris’s short-term volume is bankable. There was some preseason talk of Jusczcyk leading SF’s backfield in receptions after McKinnon went down and it was discovered that Breida didn’t excel at pass catching. Jusczcyk has been quietly siphoning off targets for years, seeing 56 targets in 2015 (BAL), 49 in 2016 (BAL) and 42 in 13 games last year (SF). He’s currently on pace to see a career high 64 targets - he seems more likely to maintain this pace with Breida perpetually injured and Beathard’s proclivity to utilize his RBs in the passing game. Juice is officially on the PPR radar in deeper leagues.
LeSean McCoy
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
43%
48%
-
60%
72%
Utilization
10
13
-
11
27
Target Share
9%
12%
-
18%
15%
RZ Utilization
0
0
0
0
3
Chris Ivory
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
11%
15%
81%
38%
28%
Utilization
3
4
24
6
14
Target Share
0%
6%
18%
0%
0%
RZ Utilization
0
1
2
0
0
Marcus Murphy
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
36%
37%
24%
-
-
Utilization
8
8
9
-
-
Target Share
6%
15%
5%
-
-
RZ Utilization
0
0
1
-
-
After a rough start to the season, where he barely eclipsed 50% of the snaps and had to miss week 3 due to a rib injury, McCoy has seen his snap percentage, utilization and target share rise weekly. It looks like this boost can mostly be attributed to Murphy’s absence, who appears to have been a healthy scratch last week despite turning in full practices and not appearing on the injury report. Ivory looks to have cemented himself as McCoy’s backup. Although McCoy was aided by positive gamescript his owners have to be relieved to see him utilized 27 times, a total which was good for the second most amongst all RBs last week. He also monopolized red zone work as he was utilized 3 times to Ivory’s 0.
Tyler Lockett
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
98%
91%
88%
94%
87%
Utilization
4
7
7
6
5
Target Share
12%
19%
23%
23%
24%
RZ Utilization
0
1
0
0
0
David Moore
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
28%
30%
33%
65%
52%
Utilization
1
0
0
2
4
Target Share
3%
0%
0%
8%
19%
RZ Utilization
0
0
0
0
1
Brandon Marshall
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
65%
80%
62%
36%
12%
Utilization
6
6
6
3
1
Target Share
18%
17%
23%
12%
5%
RZ Utilization
3
0
0
2
0
Doug Baldwin
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
19%
-
-
76%
88%
Utilization
1
-
-
7
1
Target Share
3%
-
-
27%
5%
RZ Utilization
1
-
-
0
0
I’m pretty surprised at how consistent Lockett has been despite Baldwin returning to action in recent weeks. Lockett has seen his target share rise weekly, even if that hasn’t translated into a ton of raw targets with SEA focusing on the run game - SEA ranks second in run play percentage (47.2%). Still, Lockett has proven that his contract extension was worth it as he’s scored a TD in all but one game and has been the most important component of SEA’s passing attack so far this season. Whereas Marshall has seen his snap percentage and target share decline weekly, Moore has done nothing but gain ground. Moore was drafted in the 7th round of this year’s draft and flashed during preseason action looking practically unstoppable at times. Confirming that the preseason wasn't a complete fluke, Moore turned 4 targets into a 3/38/2 stat line vs. LAR last week. His stock is most definitely on the rise and someone you need to at least monitor in deeper leagues moving forward.
D.J. Moore
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
25%
25%
49%
BYE
41%
Utilization
1
3
2
BYE
5
Target Share
0%
4%
8%
BYE
11%
RZ Utilization
0
0
0
BYE
0
Maybe my expectations for Moore are still too high but he’s someone whose involvement I will continue to closely monitor. Even though the increase was marginal, coming out of CAR’s bye Moore was utilized a season high 5 times (4 targets, 1 carry) and garnered a season high 11% of the targets. If Moore can assert himself as third in the pecking order he’s far too talented to not produce. It’s also worth noting that CAR may have begun to phase out Torrey Smith. The following WRs are benefiting from injuries..
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
3%
8%
17%
71%
95%
Utilization
0
1
1
3
10
Target Share
0%
3%
2%
9%
19%
RZ Utilization
0
0
0
0
2
MVS has been the primary beneficiary of Cobb’s injury as he’s lined up in the slot on 63% of his snaps. It’s fair to wonder if Cobb’s biological age far exceeds his chronological age at this point as he seems to be perpetually injured. Even though MVS also greatly benefited from Allison’s absence, it's probably worth holding onto him even if Allison returns next week. GB utilizes three-wide sets far more often (78%) than the league average (63%) and MVS’s has one of if not the best QBs throwing to him.
Chester Rogers
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
57%
43%
68%
80%
77%
Utilization
3
3
4
11
11
Target Share
6%
10%
10%
18%
19%
RZ Utilization
0
0
2
1
1
Ryan Grant
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
79%
70%
85%
79%
82%
Utilization
9
2
4
7
9
Target Share
17%
6%
10%
11%
15%
RZ Utilization
0
0
2
0
1
Rogers has seen a bigger boost than Grant with Hilton gimpy in week 4 and sidelined in week 5. It also helps that Luck has attempted a mind boggling 121 passes over the past two weeks. What is this, Arena football?
Tre'Quan Smith
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
12%
33%
33%
37%
67%
Utilization
1
1
0
2
3
Target Share
2%
3%
0%
6%
10%
RZ Utilization
0
2
0
Cameron Meredith
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Snap Percentage
-
-
43%
31%
45%
Utilization
-
-
1
4
5
Target Share
-
-
2%
12%
17%
RZ Utilization
-
-
1
1
0
With Ginn sidelined Smith played on a season high 67% of the snaps - he completely assumed Ginn’s role. I’m assuming Ginn will be ready to role coming out of his bye but if he isn’t Smith needs to be rostered. His ceiling is immense. Meredith saw a season high 17% of the targets last week, tying Thomas for the team lead. He’s still competing with Carr for slot snaps but looked more comfortable in the offense than at any point this season. It's possible that he and Brees are finally on the same page.
Welcome to the second installment of the Running Back Rankings Breakdown! We have gone through and projected the starting running back for each NFL team, and we will look in depth at each running backs unique situation. This article will cover the remaining 16 teams, organized alphabetically. If you missed part 1, make sure to check it out! Some teams use primary passing backs or look likely to have a committee, and for those teams we will break down and rate more than one RB. After the breakdown, you will see the projected starter(s) with their 3 category ratings, as well as cumulative score. Finally, you will also see the players ADP (Fantasypros.com, .5ppr) and our recommendation for a reach or fade on this ADP. +5 means we recommend reaching 5 spots higher than ADP, -5 means we recommend fading 5 spots lower than ADP. We will update this article as new and important information comes out throughout the preseason, especially if it affects the rankings! The scoring system on which each player is rated is based on the below categories: 3 Category Rating System: Talent (T) ** - Athleticism, Efficiency, Injury history -Possible 10 points *Opportunity (O) * - Job security, Offensive role, Projected volume -Possible 10 points **Team Build (B) - Offensive support, Coaching schemes, Expected Point Totals -Possible 10 points
Los Angeles Chargers
This is perhaps the single most interesting backfield for fantasy purposes. It appears that Melvin Gordon’s holdout is the most likely one to extend in-season, and there’s also a small chance he is traded. In either of these scenarios, his backups take center stage. Austin Ekeler is the better known commodity, having finished last season as the 6th ranked RB, and 5th best receiving RB via PFF (albeit small-ish sample size). Justin Jackson is a sophomore back that looked underrated as a 7th rd. pick, and appears to be excelling in camp. These two would form an impressive combo should Gordon in fact not be in the starting lineup come week 1. Based on what we can expect of their usage without Gordon, but keeping in mind the possibility he could return at any point, both their opportunity scores reflect the uncertainty. However, both are talented, and Ekeler has the NFL tape to back it up. The Chargers O-Line looks to be a bottom 3rd unit on paper, so that is a slight downgrade. However, the offense looks explosive, and we know how creatively OC Ken Whisenhunt uses RBs in this offense. Ekeler is an exciting pick in the late middle rounds as he could be an RB1 for the weeks Gordon misses. But the incentive for Gordon to return by midseason (his contract tolls to next season if he doesn’t) means it may end up being a very expensive handcuff. Stashing Jackson as a cheap lottery throw (in lieu of selecting of a DEF for example) seems like a savvy veteran fantasy move. If Gordon signs, you can cut him anytime. *The rankings below are if the season started TODAY, with still no resolution to the Gordon saga. If Gordon is traded, upgrade both. If he signs, then we are back to Gordon being a top 6 RB and Ekeler being a top handcuff in fantasy, with some standalone FLEX value. Austin Ekeler (Talent 8 / Opportunity 6 / Build 7.5)ADP: 75.0 Fade: -5 Justin Jackson (Talent 6 / Opportunity 4 / Build 7.5)ADP: 163 - Reach: +10
Los Angeles Rams
If you follow fantasy football then you know the nosedive Todd Gurley’s value took at the end of last season. His knee issue caused owners headaches, and potentially cost the Rams a Superbowl. Now with a full off-season to get healthy, the questions remain: can Gurley play 16 games, and will the Rams let him? There is perhaps no player being taken in the top-15 with more risk (excluding holdouts) so if you are going to take him, you may want to make sure you get two other solid running backs in the first 4-5 rounds. If the Rams play it smart and reduce his workload, a 15-20 touch per game Gurley could still easily be an RB1. Gurley is being drafted right around RBs Joe Mixon, and James Conner, so if you draft him, you are betting that he can match both of those players. Personally, I will be avoiding Gurley in my drafts, but not because I think he is washed up or guaranteed to get re-injured. Instead, I am weary of selecting a player in the 1st round who could randomly sit out games for rest, especially during the fantasy playoffs (if the Rams lock-up a playoff spot) and don’t want to build my team around a guy with which we have absolutely no clarity on his medical status. Both of the previously mentioned players have question marks, but we also know that neither of them have a potentially degenerative injury, and each seem ticketed for a workhorse role in offenses that will be heavily reliant on them. Additionally, drafting Gurley’s handcuff, Darrell Henderson, will cost you a 6th or 7th round pick, which is where you normally are selecting players for your starting lineup. It might be feasible to draft both and start both on a given week, but then you are extremely reliant on the Rams and investing two starting spots to get the statistics of what you would hope you would get from one. For me, Gurley would have to drop to the end of the second round to be a reasonable value, because then you likely got an elite back in the first round to pair with him. Because of the injury and wear on his knees, Gurley’s talent score takes a hit, and his opportunity score suffers due to the clear investment in quality supporting RBs. His team build score remains top notch due to the Rams explosive offense, but I would much prefer to tap into that by selecting Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, or Cooper Kupp. His backup, Darrell Henderson, is an intriguing handcuff, but one that will likely cost you a premium in drafts. He goes in the same rounds that owners are still choosing starters. This means that you are either weakening your starting lineup, or you will be starting two running backs from the same backfield every week. Draft Gurley at your own risk and make sure he is not the only RB you select in the first 3 rounds. Todd Gurley (Talent 7.5 / Opportunity 6 / Build 9)ADP: 13 Fade: -5 Darrell Henderson (Talent 7 / Opportunity 5 / Build 9)ADP: 88.0 Fade: -5
Miami Dolphins
Ticketed to be the worst team in the NFL this year, the Dolphins are in a full rebuild. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t fantasy value to be had. Kenyan Drake was a huge disappointment last year, and did little to assuage fears that he is simply not a workhorse back to be trusted. But he is a talented player who has shown flashes of true superstar talent. Kalen Ballage was largely inefficient and did not show much in his rare appearances last year. But with Frank Gore gone, you would think one of these players has to step up? I’m not so sure. The Dolphins will field one of the poorer offensive lines, and will likely employ at QB a certain magician that we all know well. Think back to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Tampa Bay’s first half last season: their defense and O-Line were atrocious, and Fitz threw so many bombs to Desean Jackson and Mike Evans that the running game was a complete afterthought. That seems like a pretty relevant comparison to the situation in Miami. Drake is seemingly overpriced at his current ADP considering the uncertainty of this offense and his potential role in it. However, I would be fine with taking Ballage in the double digit rounds, simply because he appears like the perfect player to benefit from garbage time. He has blazing speed, decent hands, and is a young player that Miami will want to evaluate as they move forward in their rebuild. I would fade Drake at his current cost and look to secure Ballage if he falls. Don’t count on him a weekly starter, but stash him in hopes that he can carve out a useful weekly role that you can exploit during bye weeks or in case of injuries.
Kenyan Drake has been ruled out the remainder of pre-season and is now Questionable for the regular season opener (The Fins are hopeful he will be ready Week 1). I have downgraded Drake’s opportunity due to missed reps and additional chances for Ballage to impress. Follow closely, but beware of paying an early round price for Ballage when huge question marks (talent, offense) remain.
After the Vikings switched to O-coordinator Kevin Stefanski last year in early December, something clicked in their run game that translated to Dalvin Cook finishing the year on a high note. Stefanski was rewarded for his work with the “interim O-coordinator” tag removed heading into 2019. With a potentially much improved offensive line (draft, FA, and better health), and an offense that will look to continue the end of 2018s success, this could be one of the better running teams in the NFL this year. At the center of that success will hopefully be Dalvin Cook. As a former second round pick going into his 3rd year, Cook wants to show that the injuries of the past are just that, in the past. Now two years removed from major knee surgery, the odds of him making good on that seem much improved. Cook does not need to be a 25+ touch a game player to return RB1 value. He is one of the better pass catching backs in the game, can break a home run play at any time, and can be used in any situation and in any game script. With 20 touches a week he can return top 12 RB value, especially in PPR formats. If he has an entire year to break off the explosive plays he has shown in spurts before, he has the upside for a top 5 finish. The only thing holding his score back is the injury risk. He is a high risk-high reward player, but one that seems worth it. Make sure you pair him with another RB in the first 4 rounds that has fewer risks. And absolutely MAKE SURE to get his projected handcuff Alexander Mattison. Mattison would become a solid upside RB2 in the event that Cook missed time. Dalvin Cook (Talent 7.5 / Opportunity 8.5 / Build 7.5)ADP: 19.0 Reach: +4
New England Patriots
Last year, the Patriots produced two very relevant fantasy RBs. Pass catching extraordinaire James White was the highest finisher and most consistent weekly performer. His backfield partner Sony Michel dealt with injuries, but when healthy showed to be an effective runner with excellent TD upside. This year, those backs return, along with perennial short-yardage vulture Rex Burkhead, and the Patriots also drafted a talented RB in the third round, Damien Harris. To say this backfield is unclear heading into the year would be an understatement. However, we can glean a few things to help clear the picture. First, James White will likely continue to be the main man in passing situations. As a 3rd down and 2 minute drill specialist, White will have a solid weekly floor. Second, a healthy Michel is a potential game changer for this offense, one who could carry them on some weeks. And third, spending an early pick on either of these backs is a risky proposition considering the uncertainty. The Patriots have an above average offensive line, and based on team structure, a heavy dose of running and short passes sets up a lot of potential value for the RBs. The question is who will get the volume? In a PPR league, White is absolute gold, and in standard, Michel seems worthy of a dice roll. But at their current ADPs, there isn’t much room for error. If Damien Harris gets into the mix, we could be looking at a 3 headed monster. Another thing to consider for those who are risk averse, Michel’s knees are a major red flag. Draft with caution, but look for either of the two projected starters (White and Michel) if they slide in drafts. Or target Damien Harris if he slips to the late rounds, if you want to get a piece of the offense without the high price tag. James White (Talent 7.5 / Opportunity 6 / Build 7.5)ADP: 51.0 Fade: -5 Sony Michel (Talent 7.5 / Opportunity 5.5 / Build 7.5)ADP: 47.0 Fade: -10 Damien Harris (Talent 6 / Opportunity 3 / Build 7.5)ADP: 136.0 Reach: +5
New Orleans Saints
Gone is Mark Ingram and in comes Latavius Murray. I don’t advocate for taking backs that are game script and TD dependent, so I will likely not get Murray in any leagues. The real story here is perhaps the most explosive and elusive back in the league, Alvin Kamara. Coaches insist that his usage is not expected to rise this year and I’m buying their hesitancy to have him in a 25+ touch/game role. What I’m not buying is the idea that Kamara is anything less than a top 3 pick this year. He plays in a great offense with a QB who’s trending towards lower volume but high efficiency. Kamara is the rare back that will be involved on early downs, passing situations, and the redzone/goal line. For this reason, he has a high weekly floor, and his ceiling on a given week is higher than perhaps any other back. New Orleans knows its window to win a title with Brees is closing, so they will do whatever it takes to get there this year. Just look at the Marcus Davenport selection in last year’s NFL draft, it was a win-now move that lacked foresight. The entire organization is committed to going for the title, and that will mean plenty of Kamara every single week. There’s an argument to be made for him over CMC, and if you hate the idea of a back on a bad offense, he has a case for #1 overall. If he gets to you at three or four, make your selection and start figuring out who you’ll pair with him in the second round. Alvin Kamara (Talent 9.5 / Opportunity 8 / Build 8)ADP: 3.0 Reach: +1
New York Giants
Is Daniel Jones the answer? NY fans certainly hope so. It does not sound like he will get the chance to show his worth in games that count any time soon, but it is hard to believe Eli will start 16 games. However, Saquon Barkley’s role in the offense will not be affected. He is the most complete and talented true running back, perhaps the league has ever seen. The Giants have worked to upgrade their O-line in the past year and stacked boxes did little to stop Barkley last year. The only thing holding back Barkley is the grind of an entire season as the lone offensive weapon for a team that will likely lose A LOT of games. That can take a toll on a player both physically and mentally and now that Barkley is a known commodity, it may be tougher for him to shoulder the expectations of an entire franchise and fan-base. I have to think that if he were to pick up a minor injury in the middle or tail end of a lost season (assuming NY is as bad as projected) there would be no reason to rush him back. This is all nit-picking of a truly elite talent, and he will likely make me look foolish for ever doubting him. The main reason this all resonates with me is that I was unfortunate enough to own Todd Gurley in his 2nd year in the league, when the Rams were so bad that it actually stifled a healthy Gurley’s All-Pro talent. I just have an eerie feeling that this year may bring some of that misfortune to Barkley. No matter what the circumstances this year, facing the clock at #1 it’s going to be hard not to pull the trigger. Just know that doing so means you are selecting a player who will be asked to do it ALL for his team. Knowing Barkley, he is probably up to the challenge. Saquon Barkley (Talent 10 / Opportunity 10 / Team Build 5)ADP: 1.0 Fade: N/A
New York Jets
Adam Gase takes over a Jets team that seems confused as to whether it’s trying to rebuild or contend. Gase oversaw an incredibly slow paced Dolphins team the past three years, but the Fins also had a much less talented offense. The centerpiece of Gase’s new offense is Le’Veon Bell, who spent last year breaking the hearts of fantasy owners everywhere. Now that he’s back and getting up to speed with his new offense, it seems Bell is headed for a true workhorse role. What has many in the fantasy community concerned is his downgrade in O-line, QB, and coaching scheme from his PIT years. Still, a high volume role for the Jets should lead to RB1 numbers, health permitting. The real debate seems to be between David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, as both have almost identical ADPs. Drafting 5th or 6th means likely making the decision between these two, or picking your favorite WR. I personally tend to lean towards DJ, because even in a bad offense with horrendous QB play, he was a top 10 RB last year. In an up tempo offense that will need to score a lot, DJ looks poised to break right back into the upper tier of RBs. Bell may be hamstrung by a slower paced offense and a defense that may be able to grind opposing teams into a slower pace as well. Plus, this entire Jets situation looks like it could blow up at any time, and we all know how much off-field distractions can impact on-field performance. If he slips into the late 1st, it’s hard to pass on his projected massive workload, but early to mid - 1st round, I’m having a hard time buying that Bell will be able to replicate his PIT numbers and be a top 3 RB. Le’Veon Bell (Talent 8.5 / Opportunity 8.5 / Build 6.5)ADP: 7.0 Fade: -4
Oakland Raiders
If you’ve been watching Hard Knocks (HBO) the past two weeks, you’ve probably seen more clips of Jon Gruden yelling obscenities at grown men than you ever wanted to. What you haven’t seen much of is rookie RB Josh Jacobs out of Alabama. On Twitter, Jacobs claimed he has been “hiding from them”, which may be a wise strategy to stay out of the all-consuming spotlight. This strategy has deprived viewers of the chance to get to know the extremely talented odds-on Rookie of the Year favorite. What we do know is Jacobs will get all the touches he can handle in an offense that likes to run the ball in the red zone. What we don’t know is whether the Raiders will have a consistently productive offense in 2019, with question marks ranging from Derek Carr’s true abilities to Antonio Brown’s effectiveness to disrupt an entire franchise with his antics. However, I was surprised to find in my research for consistency ratings, that last year Marshawn Lynch actually finished with a “RB2+” score (>11.5 points .5ppr) in 67% of his games played. It seems the volume of touches Gruden likes to give his lead back, combined with their tendency to run the ball in the red zone leading to TDs, gave Lynch a higher floor than most backs like him that didn’t have a big passing game role. Jacobs looks likely to finish with more catches than Lynch last year while maintaining the overall weekly volume. He may not be the sexiest upside rookie (that belongs to David Montgomery or maybe Miles Sanders) but he is definitely the safest. If you can get him as your RB2 in the 4th, it seems a safe bet he will provide you with solid weekly numbers that can anchor your lineup. Don’t underestimate volume and opportunity combined with young, fresh legs. Josh Jacobs (Talent 8 / Opportunity 8 / Build 6.5)ADP: 37.0 Reach: +2
Philadelphia Eagles
It seems like a generation ago that Lesean McCoy was manning the Eagles backfield as a dominant and explosive workhorse back. The past few years have seen timeshares and RBBC's that have frustrated owners to no end. This year appears similar on paper with veteran grinder Jordan Howard competing with talented rookie Miles Sanders, mixed in with a sprinkle of low end pass catching and vulture type backs. Here is where the Lesean McCoy reference actually provides some potential insight into this year’s situation. By all accounts, Sanders is the most talented back the Eagles have had since McCoy, and actually seems to have some similarities to Shady in his prime. I’m not saying he is as good as McCoy was in his prime, but it feels like he has some special traits. The reason that I’m bullish on Sanders this year is because he has a lot of paths to fantasy success. He could be a great change of pace and passing game complement to Howard, and be a PPR producer that makes a great FLEX play. He could find a good all around role, grabbing 10-15 carries and some catches each game, and benefit from the space that comes with an explosive offense with a plethora of weapons. Or maybe, in a best case scenario, he shows what it takes to get a 3 down role and is the perfect back to complete the Eagles offense and make them a Superbowl threat. In that case, he has the upside for a high end RB2 or even a lower end RB1 status. At his reasonable price tag of a mid round RB3, he is definitely worth the gamble (and maybe even a reach). Don’t let the lack of immediate opportunity scare you. This guy is talented and will get every chance to be a 20 touch per game player by mid season. Even if he is more in the 15 touch range, he will have no problem being a useful flex option, especially in PPR leagues. Miles Sanders (Talent 8, Opportunity 6, Build 7.5)ADP: 79.0 Reach: +10 Jordan Howard (Talent 6.5 / Opportunity 5.5 / Build 7.5)ADP: 98.0 Fade: -5
Pittsburgh Steelers
This will be a drastically different offense than the one that took the field only two years ago. With Le’veon and AB gone, Juju and James Conner now move into the elite status. The question for Conner is, does he deserve to be ranked there? Let’s take a close look at his situation entering 2019. The offensive line is a strength, ranking as a top 3 line (PFF) heading into the season. Big Ben had the most volume heavy season of his career last year, but only finished as the 16th highest graded QB (PFF). Perhaps the heavy volume was part of the reason for his lower grade, and a return to a more balanced offense may be in store this year. One of the problems last year was a defense that could not stop the run. The Steelers attempted to address this in the off-season and Devin Bush looked unbelievable in pre-season action, but only time will tell if it will make a real difference this year. Now that we understand the team situation, let’s look at Conner and his presumed backup Jaylen Samuels more closely. Conner was a monster the first half of last year, and looked on his way to a top 3 RB finish. However, a knee injury forced him to miss 3 games and when he returned in the final week, he was not the same workhorse he had been. Samuels was used mostly in passing situations last year, but looked more than capable of being a part of a RBBC. Additionally, the Steelers drafted an early down grinder back, Benny Snell, who looks perfect for short yardage and/or goal line situations. Conner should remain the lead back, but perhaps not the bellcow he was for most of 2018. However, playing behind an elite offensive line in what should be an excellent offense, the talented Conner should be able to return RB1 level value. Samuels is also an intriguing late round flier for standalone PPR value and the possibility of an increased role as the season goes on. He also is a must-draft handcuff for all Conner owners. James Conner (Talent 8 / Opportunity 7 / Build 7.5)ADP: 11.0 Fade: -5 Jaylen Samuels (Talent 6.5 / Opportunity 5.5 / Build 7.5)ADP: 114.0 Reach: +10
San Francisco 49ers
The SF backfield is beginning to take shape as we move through the pre-season. Jerick McKinnon remains sidelined with his knee recovery from last year, and it appears he had a setback that may force him on IR for some or all of the season. That leaves Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. Coleman seems the favorite for early down work, and his history with Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta has many projecting him to be the strong #1 back with Breida backing him up. Based on tape from last year, I believe Breida brings an element of explosiveness that even the speedy Tevin Coleman can’t match, so look for Breida to be as involved as his body will allow him to be. SF trots out a mid level O-line, with a QB who has a large range of potential outcomes this year. Jimmy G has shown flashes of brilliance, flashes of mediocrity, and much larger flashes of inability to stay on the field. As it stands now, I project Tevin Coleman to be the lead back in solid offense, with the potential to be involved in all facets of the game, especially the redzone. This would leave him about 17-20 total touches a game, with some solid TD upside. Breida would then be used to spell Coleman, and at times be used out wide for gadget plays. I would project him about 10-12 touches a game, which would greatly increase the odds of him staying healthy. With these projections, I would have Coleman as a high end RB2, and Breida as a solid weekly flex option. There is room for movement, but for now this backfield looks much more resolved than we thought two weeks ago. Target Coleman after the safer RB2s go off the board, however, you will likely need to reach as he is going above his ADP. Same goes for Breida, who is being taken well above his ADP due to the McKinnon news. They both seem worth the reach. Tevin Coleman (Talent 7.5 / Opportunity 7 / Build 7)ADP: 66.0 Reach: +10 Matt Breida (Talent 7 / Opportunity 6 / Build 7)ADP: 125.0 Reach: +25
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle projects to be one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL this year. Despite having the current highest paid QB in the NFL, it seems coach Carroll is determined to win on the ground. The O-line is slightly below average, but veteran stud tackle Duane Brown anchors it and may be able to drag his teammates into a better performance this year. Russell Wilson at QB upgrades the entire offense because of his ability to keep the Hawks in striking distance to win any game.This means that even when Seattle is being outplayed, Wilson can keep the script neutral and allow Seattle the flexibility to continue mixing in the run. However, the defense does not appear strong on paper this year, so that’s a concern for the Seahawks projected rushing volume. It may be possible that the Seahawks are forced to throw more this year due solely to their below average defense. So how does this affect the two relevant fantasy backs, Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny? As of writing this, word out of camp has Carson as the clear starter, with Penny filling the volume that departed Mike Davis’ left (he’s in CHI now). This would leave Carson with the same high rushing volume as last year, plus the coaches are talking up Carson’s ability in the pass game. If this comes to fruition, not only does it help Carson’s PPR value, it also helps bring up his weekly floor. If Seattle is poor defensively and is forced into higher tempo games to outscore opponents, Carson will need to be a fixture in the passing game to maintain consistent value. It appears he is poised to do exactly that. Carson looks as safe as any of the other mid RB2 selections. Penny, despite being a first round pick from 2018, looks like he will be mostly a change of pace back, taking about a third of the total RB touches. In this offense that’s enough for flex value, but at his ADP, it seems like an overpay. Chris Carson (Talent 7.5 / Opportunity 7.5 / Build 7)ADP: 49.0 Reach: +10 Rashaad Penny (Talent 6.5 / Opportunity 5 / Build 7)ADP: 82.0 Fade: -5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bruce Arians takes over a team that has been an NFL bottom feeder for quite some time. Arians is the latest coach to try and get the most out of Jameis Winston and perhaps he will finally be the one to do it. Winston is coming off a 2018 where he was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick through parts of the season. Tampa Bay projects to have one of the worst defenses in the league this year, and the O-line is only marginally better. There is a chance that with increased health and continuity, Tampa Bay could have at least a league average O-line, but that is no guarantee. Arians looks poised to bring an up-tempo and dynamic offense to TB, but that will not necessarily translate to a successful traditional running game. Ronald Jones, a second round pick in 2018, is seemingly the most talented back on the roster. Peyton Barber, the projected starter, did not look great when given chances last year, but he did look more like an NFL running back than Jones. Perhaps this new offense and new coaching staff can get more out of Jones. Still, the problem remains that the ideal back to get fantasy value out of an offense like TB’s, would be a strong pass catching back. Neither Jones nor Barber have shown to be particularly adept at pass catching, at least not consistently. It seems that TB WANTS Jones to win the job because of the big play ability he offers. It’s just not clear that he has done so yet. I would not advise grabbing Barber, as in the later rounds you should be swinging for more upside. However, I think Jones is a target in the late single or early double digit rounds. He is definitely a target as a stash away RB3 that could come into RB2 value if the game suddenly “clicks” for him. Ronald Jones (Talent 6.5 / Opportunity 6 / Build 6)ADP: 106.0 Reach: +10-15 Peyton Barber (Talent 5.5 / Opportunity 5 / Build 6)ADP: 113.0 Fade: -20-30
Tennessee Titans
Last year’s Titans team was one of the messiest for fantasy value. Marcus Mariota’s injury meant that the entire offense looked about as bad as an offense can look in the NFL for most of the year. However, what happened in the final few weeks of the season grabbed fantasy owners attention. Derrick Henry, who had been dropped in a large number of leagues due to low usage and horrible overall offensive output, suddenly got the workhorse treatment and responded with a complete breakout. For those that hung onto him or were able to pick him up, he won a lot of fantasy championships. With Tennessee's O-line looking healthier to start 2019 than they did to start last season, they go back to being a strong asset, possibly even top 5 in the league. And if Mariota is able to stay healthy, this offense may have a chance to really take off. So what does 2019 look like for Derrick Henry? The Offensive Coordinator seems committed to using Henry as a workhorse back, much like the final few games of 2018. Through training camp so far, Henry has dealt with some minor injuries and missed practice time, and the O-line will have to deal with the suspension of Taylor Lewan for the first four games, and to add to that, Jack Conklin has yet to prove he is 100% healthy at game ready level. What looked like a strength may in fact be a concern this year. Plus, with Henry basically a non-factor in the passing game, he will need to be getting 20+ carries a game to live up to his draft status. To get this volume means he will need a clean bill of health going into Week 1. In .5 or full PPR leagues he is an even riskier bet. Regardless, fantasy owners maintain hope that the end of 2018 showed what a locked in and properly used Henry is capable of. Derrick Henry (Talent 7.5 / Opportunity 7 / Build 6.5)ADP: 38.0 Fade: -5
Washington Redskins
The Redskins appear headed for a rebuilding year, although the coaching staff and front office does not seem to want to admit it. Case Keenum is the current favorite for starting QB duties, but rookie Dwayne Haskins is nipping at his heels. A once strong WAS O-line has become a concern with the holdout of Trent Williams and the defense seems unlikely to better than middle of the pack. The lack of offensive weapons at wideout is concerning, as Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson, two NON WRs are the best pass catchers on the team. This leaves potential upside starter Derrius Guice in an interesting position. On the one hand, he is an amazing talent that looks close to full health, who could force his way into a big role on a team looking for a spark. On the other hand, this team projects to lose enough games that there may be no real incentive to put miles on Guice in a lost season, rather they may look to save him for next year. I would take the middle ground on this. I think that Guice could start a bit slow and work next to Adrian Peterson while rounding into game shape. Then by week 4 or 5, he can begin to take a larger share of the workload, say ~65% of the carries. He can maintain low end RB2 value through his talent alone, but will be harder pressed to be successful in .5 and full PPR due to the presence of Chris Thompson. With volume likely to be a concern in order to keep Guice healthy and not overwork him, I think an upside FLEX is what he projects to be late season. Then I predict that next year he will be an early round draft pick in fantasy as that will be his breakout year. Draft him this year as your third or fourth running back, but be wary of counting on him in your RB2 slot all year. Derrius Guice (Talent 7.5 / Opportunity 6.5 / Build 5.5)ADP: 71.0 (Feels about right) Thanks for reading, @ us on Twitter with any questions @DFAroto. And check out the website for Part 1: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/nfl/running-back-rankings-breakdown-part-1
The San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 2020, and there are some recent betting trends that go against the long-time numbers Super Bowl LIV Betting Trends. Per Richardson, when it comes to Super Bowl 2020 Against the Spread odds, sports bettors at BetMGM Sportsbook are: betting 72% of cash bets on the Chiefs spread; betting 68% of ticket wagers on the Chiefs spread; When it comes to the Over/Under, those betting at BetMGM are: betting 70% ticket wagers on the Over (54.5) The days of relying solely on Las Vegas for Super Bowl Odds is officially over with the launch of legal sports betting in the United States. Online Sportsbooks and mobile betting apps are growing at a rapid base lead by DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel and William Hill. Super Bowl ATS Trends. The spread is the most common type of NFL bet that sports bettors of all experience levels understand and wager on. However, before you wade through the Super Bowl 53 betting sites for the spread that you like, take a minute to look over some previous SB ATS trends: Here's everything to know about betting on 49ers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 54, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the big game. MORE: Get the latest Super Bowl odds & betting ...
NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends & Tips Bookie Blasters
NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends & Tips Bookie Blasters Free Betting Strategy, Betting Tips, & Betting Trends for the Super Bowl from Expert Sports Handicapper Craig Trapp from Picks & Parlays Prop Bets for Super Bowl 2020 Super Bowl Start Time: 6:30 p.m. EST on Sunday, February 2, 2020 - Duration: 36:19. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 5,461 views 36:19 NFL Week 5 kicks off Thursday night with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears, and we have you covered with the top NFL betting tips, trends, and angles... NFL Week 4 kicks off Thursday night with the Denver Broncos vs New York Jets, and we have you covered with the top NFL betting tips, trends, and angles to he... Bob gives us gives us a quick look into the 2020 Super Bowl odds and trends and then gives us his picks for the game. For more on the 2020 NFL Super Bowl Odd...
