[Stats] A brief analysis of the last five year's odds, or why the bookies always win
Here is something that should surprise no one. Betting odds are designed to fuck you. I'm not much of a gambler, but as betting odds have crept onto every available space around anything remotely related to football I have started wondering how successful my footy tips would be if I decided to bet on them. Especailly now that every tipping comp website has the odds next to the teams. Here's an early TL;DR if you bet on the footy you are very likely to lose your money. I didn't have a way check what my earnings/(loss) would have been without manually going through each game one by one and checking if I had one, so I decided to do a broader analysis of some of the more popular options people take when doing their tips. There is a spreadsheet on this website that has all the winners and odds for the last seven years (although it is missing a bunch of 2009 games which is why I didn't go back that far.) All bets are for $10. All the games that ended in a draw at full-time were counted as draws, even if a team won in extra time. Firstly, betting on all the favourites. The actual results by backing all the favourites would put you in the top half of almost any tipping comp. Some years you are getting 67% of games right. If you got that much right at uni, you'd get a credit. But if you bet on favourites, even with a success rate of 67% you will still lose money. Those odds are fucked. You can be right two out of three times and still lose money. Bet on all favourites
Year
No. of wins
Winning %
Winnings
Outlay
Profit/(Loss)
ROI
2015
119
59%
1,771
2,010
(239)
(11.90%)
2014
124
62%
1,789
2,010
(222)
(11.02%)
2013
135
67%
1,929
2,010
(81)
(4.05%)
2012
126
63%
1,878
2,010
(132)
(6.57%)
2011
130
65%
1,937
2,010
(73)
(3.65%)
2010
120
60%
1,821
2,010
(189)
(9.43%)
Total
754
63%
11,123
$12,060
(937)
(7.77%)
The next thing I wanted to test is if backing the favourites is so bad, what about the other side of the coin? The NRL is a notoriously even competition, upsets happen all the time. So surely the outsiders do better? Well yes, they do in some years. And in others much worse. The average loss over 5 years is almost the same as the loss from backing the favourites (7.37% to 7.77%) so over time, the bookies get you either way. Bet on all outsiders
Year
No. of wins
Winning %
Winnings
Outlay
Profit/(Loss)
ROI
2015
74
37%
2,041
2,010
31
1.55%
2014
73
36%
2,081
2,010
71
3.52%
2013
60
30%
1,785
2,010
(225)
(11.17%)
2012
66
33%
1,731
2,010
(279)
(13.89%)
2011
61
30%
1,615
2,010
(395)
(19.65%)
2010
75
37%
1,918
2,010
(92)
(4.60%)
Total
409
34%
11,171
12,060
(889)
(7.37%)
Note: The Favourites + Outsiders don't quite add up to the full number of games because of draws But Ado, I hear you say, I have a system. I only make safe bets and over the year I come out in front. Well no, you probably don't. The main reason is that if you only take small safe bets, one loss can set you back a long way. Only betting on teams with odds better than 1.20 will mean you need at least five wins to counteract one loss. That means you have to win more than 83% of the time just to break even ([1 loss and 5 wins @1.20 = Break even, 5/6=83.33%) the win rate will need to be much higher if you are taking odds are lower than 1.20.) If you have an 83% success rate and you are still losing or only breaking even, you should consider applying your talents elsewhere. Bet on all "safe games" (Favourite 1.20 or less)
Year
No. of Win
No. of Games
Win %
Winnings
Outlay
Profit/(Loss)
ROI
2015
17
19
89%
191
190
1
0.32%
2014
13
17
76%
150
170
(20)
(11.82%)
2013
24
31
77%
271
310
(40)
(12.74%)
2012
12
13
92%
140
130
10
7.69%
2011
9
13
69%
103
130
(27)
(21.08%)
2010
6
7
86%
68
70
(2)
(3.29%)
81
100
81%
921
1,000
(79)
(7.87%)
Bet on all "safe games" (Favourite 1.50 or less)
Year
No. of Win
No. of Games
Win %
Winnings
Outlay
Profit/(Loss)
ROI
2015
68
104
65%
895
1,040
(145)
(13.90%)
2014
81
119
68%
1,069
1,190
(121)
(10.14%)
2013
88
121
73%
1,139
1,210
(71)
(5.88%)
2012
68
102
67%
913
1,020
(107)
(10.44%)
2011
74
101
73%
1,009
1,010
(1)
(0.09%)
2010
59
91
65%
812
910
(98)
(10.80%)
438
638
69%
5,838
6,380
(542)
(8.50%)
This is an old footy tipping chestnut of people who don't really follow the footy. "Just give me all the home teams" they say. Some tipping comps even give you the "punishment" of the away teams if you fail to get your tips in. Over the last six years, the home team method has barely got 50% of the games right, yet alone how much you would lose if you bet on them. Bet on all home teams
Year
No. of wins
Winning %
Winnings
Outlay
Profit/(Loss)
ROI
2015
104
52%
1,753
2,010
(257)
(12.80%)
2014
114
57%
1,955
2,010
(56)
(2.76%)
2013
115
57%
1,940
2,010
(71)
(3.51%)
2012
111
55%
1,934
2,010
(76)
(3.79%)
2011
117
58%
1,955
2,010
(55)
(2.73%)
2010
110
55%
1,868
2,010
(142)
(7.05%)
671
56%
11,404
12,060
(656)
(5.44%)
One of /NRL's favourite hoodoos is the curse of the team who finished fourth the previous year. So I thought I'd check out if betting against fourth would work out. Spoilers: It didn't, even in 2011 when the Titans fell from fourth to last in a season. Even if you noticed this trend and bet on it you would have still lost all you money and then some over six years. Bet against team who finished forth previous year
Year
No. of Win
No. of Games
Win %
Winnings
Outlay
Profit/(Loss)
ROI
2015
15
24
63%
264
240
24
10.08%
2014
8
26
31%
172
260
(88)
(33.73%)
2013
9
28
32%
197
280
(83)
(29.57%)
2012
13
24
54%
203
240
(37)
(15.42%)
2011
10
26
38%
216
260
(44)
(16.96%)
2010
10
24
42%
228
240
(12)
(4.83%)
65
152
43%
1,281
1,520
(239)
(15.72%)
If you are wondering how the Titans only manged 6 wins in 2011 but you only would have got 10 right it is because they had a lot of extra time games which they lost. Note: Manly (2014) and Tigers (2011) were the only teams to make the finals after finishing fourth the year before. All hope is not lost though. There is one method which I check that did actually yield a decent profit, especially in 2015. This is the ReggieBasil method. Bet against the Tigers when they are favourites. And it fucking works. A 60% ROI? That sounds like a pyramid scheme, but so do a lot of the Tigers recruitment decisions. Bet against Tigers when favourites
Year
No. of Win
No. of Games
Win %
Winnings
Outlay
Profit/(Loss)
ROI
2015
6
9
67%
145
90
55
60.56%
2014
2
4
50%
43
40
3
7.00%
2013
0
2
0%
0
20
(20)
(100%)
2012
7
15
47%
196
150
46
30.53%
2011
8
17
47%
205
170
35
20.76%
2010
6
17
35%
140
170
(30)
(17.71%)
29
64
45%
728
640
88
13.80%
Note: In 2013 Tigers were favourites only twice, in rounds two and three against the Eels and Panthers. TL:DR Head to head betting is for suckers, unless you bet against the Tigers when they are favourites.
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