Fixed Odds Betting - Fully Explained with Examples

Since betting on the outcome of sporting events causes tampering with the outcomes (ie 1919 Chicago White Sox), then won't betting on prices (futures market/derivatives) encourage price fixing on our consumable goods? Why, or why not?

submitted by aaronely to AskReddit [link] [comments]

A Breakdown of Sedans and Hatchbacks from Different Classes for 2020/2021 in the United States

Hi everybody! I hope you all are doing well and staying safe!
I joined this subreddit a few months ago because I recently got my learner's permit, and I like to learn about different car models in general out of curiosity. I noticed during my time here that there seems to be a lot of people looking for certain cars from each different type of class. Due to this, I wanted to try to make a post that looks at each class and highlights some cars to consider.
Some caveats I want to mention before writing this post is that this post will be focused on new cars releasing in the United States. In addition, because I'm on a learner's permit, I have only driven a limited amount of cars, so I unfortunately do not have experience driving many cars and a lot of it comes from stuff I read on other sites, saw in reviews, or anecdotes from friends/family. I hope this post helps gather some information, though, during your car search!
Legend
+ means a pro of the car.
- means a con of the car.
Bolded cars mean they are available with a manual transmission.
Italicized cars mean they are available with a CVT.
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Subcompact Sedans/Hatchbacks
Cars to consider:
Honda Fit
Hyundai Accent
Kia Rio
Toyota Yaris
MINI Cooper
Neutral:
Mitsubishi Mirage
Not recommended:
Nissan Versa
Q: What should I get?
A: If you are looking for the sportiest and most powerful small car you can find, then the Mini Cooper may be your best bet. It has the most power and is known for having the best handling. Otherwise, if you are looking for overall good value and well roundness, the Honda Fit, Toyota Yaris, and the Kia Rio are probably your best options.
Q: Why would I not recommend the Versa?
A: The Versa is one I do not recommend mainly because of Nissan's CVT issues. In addition, the Versa has typically been known for having a lot of reliability and quality issues in general.
Compact Sedans/Hatchbacks
Cars to consider:
Mazda3
Honda Civic
Toyota Corolla
Kia Forte
Hyundai Elantra
Hyundai Veloster
Volkswagen GTI
Volkswagen Golf
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Not recommended:
Nissan Sentra
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Midsize Sedans
Cars to consider:
Kia Optima
Toyota Camry
Ford Fusion
Mazda6
Honda Accord
Hyundai Sonata
Kia K5 (Soon to be replacing the Kia Optima in the United States)
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Not recommended:
Chevrolet Malibu
Nissan Altima
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Large Sedans
Cars to consider:
Toyota Avalon
Kia Cadenza
Chevrolet Impala
Not recommended:
Nissan Maxima
Although this car has some great benefits associated with it, such as a pretty powerful V6 engine loaded, great safety score and safety features, and a lot of available features, the CVT definitely limits it from being a solid recommendation. Nissan's CVT is known for historically having a lot of problems, which doesn't make it the best choice reliability wise. However, the Maxima is definitely far better made than the Sentra or the Versa, and if you are into Nissan's exterior design, it might be worth a consideration. However, I would definitely recommend cars like the Cadenza, Avalon, and Impala to anyone over the Maxima, particularly because those three cars generally accomplish the goals of Maxima better.
Chrysler 300
I am saddened to put this on the list of cars to avoid because this is actually all around a decent car. In my opinion, it has a super good looking exterior design, and Chrysler has made a lot of leaps in terms of making the engine and car a lot more reliable. It's also decently powered and is known for having a fantastic interior. However, it doesn't have the best rear visibility, which can make it a challenge to drive sometimes, and its safety crash test ratings are pretty poor in comparison to other sedans being released in 2020 and 2021. If you can find one for cheap, though, and are okay with the cons that come with, though, it may be worth test driving and seeing if you find it to be a good fit.
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I hope this helped! I don't know if it would be in popular demand, but if people want to see something like this for trucks/SUVs/minivans, I'd be happy to try to give it a go.
Have a nice day!
submitted by eccentricgalaxy to whatcarshouldIbuy [link] [comments]

I never missed a day of smoking for 15 years. Now I’m 15 days clean. Yes, I’m “that guy” that nobody would expect to quit.

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Impossible? I think not.
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TLDR – This is the story of how nicotine controlled my life, and how I’m fighting back. The impossible is possible. I hope there are a few nuggets of information in here that may help anyone who needs it.
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EDIT (for proper context) - To clarify, 2 packs every 3 days was what I was smoked as a freshman in high school, NOT when I quit smoking a few weeks ago. At the time of my quitting, I was smoking 3 vape pods every 2 days, in addition to 1 weed pod every 2-3 days. This is not safe and I would strongly advise against mixing nicotine & THC on a daily basis. It's just not good for you.
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I smoked for 15 years – since I was a freshman in high school. I hung out with bad people, did drugs, then received cigarettes from my mom because it was the “significantly lesser of the evils”. I thought it was cool to be a “gangsta”. I thought it was cool to do hardcore drugs, as well as softer ones. I thought it was cool to throw away all that my parents did for me. Damn, how wrong I was.
2 packs every 3 days. Marlboro lights and reds. I smoked a lot, because nobody could stop me.
I’ve had asthma since I was young. During high school, I got good grades - 4.0 nearly every quarter. I played sports as well (wrestling, volleyball). But I kept smoking, kept hanging out with bad people, and kept making bad decisions. It continued through to college.
In college, I partied even harder. I went the social fraternity route, where they ONLY party. I got kicked out of college for bad grades, then went to a community college – where I smoked even more! Those were a good 3+ years of not doing shit – except for partying, smoking, and destroying my life.
Eventually, I made my way back to university - electrical engineering at a California State College. I still smoked a ton, and still partied. But upon getting back to university, I had to take a placement exam for math as an engineer, and I bombed that test so hard that they kicked my math down to remedial levels. To top that off, I failed my first engineering class back, and had severe math course requirements to make up in order to proceed even further. Long story short – if I thought I’d be done in 2 more years, I was wrong. I had a LONG and STRESSFUL way to go.
That simply means that it was a tough road - with lots of smoking. LOTS. And LOTS. Damn, it was a lot. I’d smoke between classes. I’d go for smoke breaks in classes. I reeked of smoke, and it wasn’t only nicotine that was being smoked. I was poisoning my lungs all day long.
When vapes came out, it got even worse. Now, I’d smoke anywhere and everywhere. Whether I’d be at home, at a friend’s house, or at school – I always had to get my fix. I was THAT GUY who smoked the most out of my friend group and everyone I knew. Vape just made this problem worse. In terms of nicotine though, first it was cigarettes, then both cigarettes and vape, then vape only.
Yup - I went through ALL the vape phases. You know, you start off with them eGos. Then you move up to something else, like a provari. Then you start becoming an expert at modding and “building wicks”. Oh, how they get you. As I kept going and going, vaping evolved to cannabis also, so you bet I was on that train. I’d use my inhaler sometimes between weed hits. I could feel myself getting anxiety from weed and nicotine and all this smoking. I went down a freaking spiral, and didn’t stop.
Heck, even if I was in a car with my FAMILY, going to a FAMILY dinner, I’d still vape in front of them. I was that messed up. I was that addicted. I was that guy.
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Not me. I wouldn't have a picture of me smoking in front of family, but you get the point. Image Source: Rommel Canlas @ 123rf
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……………………………………………………
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Fast forward to 2015-2016, I decided engineering school was not for me. I decided that business was my passion. However, my mom begged me not to drop out of engineering school. And for business, the best time to start is always yesterday. So I started my business halfway through engineering school, and did these both at the same time. Do you know how stressful that was? Take whatever I was smoking before, and multiply it by 2. I could cry and feel tears in my eyes, when I think back to how much pain I was in during this period and how difficult this was.
If it was a non-school day, or if I was going HAM on my business, I’d be smoking all day. My room would literally, be a hotbox of just vape. The air in my home was became bad – because of me. At this point, I also withdrew a lot socially, in order to focus on these priorities of business and school. That led to even more stress, as I watched my friends slowly graduate one by one, party and have fun, and start really living life. Guess what more stress means. I don't even have to say it. Downward spiral much?
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Not me, but my room was similarly smoked, lol. I wish I had pictures, sorry. Source: filomedia @ pond5
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…………….…. but never mind that, I got priorities, right? ……………………………
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My first business was a modification I made on an existing invention. It sold out 5 manufacturing runs and I still lost money. Oh wells, I’ll just smoke the pain away.
I started 2 other e-commerce stores after that, both of which failed due to issues where we could not get to making sales. More smoking.
Then the next store I built, somewhere around 2017 or so, we hit it off. I did 7 figures in sales within a year (sales, not profit – but still damn good though). Then, due to some bad business decisions and some suppliers bait/switching me, I lost it all. I watched my bank account, go from nothing… all the way to 6 figures… then back down to NEGATIVE 5 figures. And, it was a slow burn down also. Not a fast one. Believe me, I tried EVERYTHING I could to fix the business, but nothing was working at that time. Guess what – even MORE smoking. Now it was getting bad.
Mind you, I’m still in school also. And electrical engineering school is math heavy, which made things even more difficult because I hated math. But I persevered, whilst using nicotine to fuel myself. A poor decision that led me to smoke even more than I could imagine – now it was becoming a burden to smoke. However, at this point, my life was ecommerce, smoking, and school. ONLY. I literally became a “grandpa” and “turtle” and withdrew from a majority of social things. That means puff, puff, and puff.
I ended up building 2 other stores that failed after that. They were good stores, but they never took off. More smoking. I learned a LOT, but I smoked a lot as well.
Then I had a breakthrough. I partnered up with a friend who built a store but was not profitable on most days, and barely profitable on some days. We went 50/50 – and in 3 days of work I cut his advertising in half. I was ecstatic, and I was still smoking a lot. After a few more days, he decided to “ghost me” because we didn’t sign paperwork, as I trusted him. He basically said “I think this is something I have to do alone”, then went MIA (after I made his story very profitable). I lost it, and smoked even more from that stress.
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Not me, but watch out, cool guy over here. Representation of me. Damn I was an idiot. Source: ERPNews
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………………………… what a sucky story …………………….
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Except I fought back.

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I worked every hour I could (smoked every hour I could also, haha). He scammed me, but I learned a ton and started making breakthroughs. I kept grinding, kept smoking, kept grinding, kept smoking.
That experience gave me the insights and strength I needed to rebuild the right way. It was very stressful, very smokey, yes – but at the same time – it was what was needed to take me to the next level.
My health is important, and how can I possibly make an impact on the world if I’m smoking every minute I’m on this planet? Stuff just started clicking, not only in terms of business, but also in terms of beginning to think about the long term implications of smoking. Yeah, I was even that guy at the gym who would vape immediately as soon as I got out of the gym, on the way home, and after the post workout shower. I hated nicotine, but at the same time I couldn’t stop nicotine.
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I’ll spare you guys the details, but fast forward a ton of work later, I’ve finally clawed my way out of rock bottom in business. My business has huge plans for 2021, and we’ve already done pretty good in 2020 and have made excellent progress. I am a learner, and every struggle makes me stronger. I’ve crawled out of my rock bottom hole, have rebuilt my business, and have really started focusing more on innovation and being the best option in the market for anything we sell. In a nutshell ~ doing business the right way, by way of innovation & domination.
I’d like to think that I am an inventor who had to learn how to market and sell. BUT, NO MATTER WHAT I THOUGHT, I KNEW FOR A FACT that I was also a smoker who had lost control of his life to nicotine. In order to succeed you must pay a “price” – but my health was the wrong “price” to pay. This was a skeleton in my closet that I had to conquer.
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In the midst of this, I managed to barely scrape by and graduate with my electrical engineering degree, which I’ve just received this past summer. I hated every second of it. I smoked myself through everything I learned. But at least I finished it. Momma got what she wanted, even though I have no use for this degree.
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Sorry, I haven't taken any graduation pictures yet.
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… Sweet. Now life is finally starting to rebuild. But I’ve still got to conquer my biggest demon …
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Nicotine.

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You do that dance. You know, that old dance – I’ll put my vape down, tell myself NO MORE, then find myself picking that crap up a few minutes later. Sometimes unconsciously, without even noticing.
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This is from the show, Peaky Blinders. One of my favorites. This image is from the scene where I got the \"dance\" quote from. Churchill (right) does the \"dance\" with his cigar. Tommy shelby (left) does the \"dance\" with his suicidal thoughts.
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… I don’t know what happened, but a few weeks ago, I just went down this rabbit hole of redditing and googling and watching content about smoking and quitting. Seed was planted, or rather – the seed is being watered as I’ve wanted to quit for a while now. But I wasn’t strong enough. No trigger. No catalyst yet. Mind you, when I smoked, there were times when I had chest pains and kept smoking. This started happening a few years ago. Something to do with asthma? Blood pressure? Etc etc…? Not sure.
… Then a little over 2 weeks ago, I smoked a lot of nicotine, a bit too much. I topped it off with a few ganja hits ….
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But something felt off. I started having a full blown panic/anxiety attack, and just felt immense pain everywhere. It was in my chest, yes… but for some odd reason my back started feeling uncomfortable, laying down felt uncomfortable, and I just felt like crap. Not sure why this happened – maybe it was a stroke of luck from God, but it happened.
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I decided I had enough. I decided that I was no longer going to let nicotine control me.

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In tears, I went to talk to my mom. I just told her I needed to talk to her, and I’m fortunate that she worked as a social worker for the county (people go to her for food stamps basically). Because the first thing I said when I opened my mouth was – “I need help.”
I don’t know why I said that. I’m never that “weak” – but this time, I just gave myself up. I finally admitted, that I had a fucking problem.
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I’ve kicked weed a few times in the past and have smoked on/off for years at a time… but nicotine was always the constant. I NEVER missed a day of smoking for 15 years. One day I almost came close – when I got my wisdom teeth pulled out. The doctor told me NO SMOKING. Guess what I did after I went home and rested? Yup – I vaped – against the doctor’s orders. As I said, I was that guy.
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…
…
…
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And quit I did. I threw it all away. Grabbed all my vape AND weed paraphernalia, and anything even remotely related to it. Fucking crumpled it all up and threw it in a bag, and threw it away.

This must be done, symbolically. To show your mind – “hey, fuck you nicotine. I’m in charge. You’ve taken away enough from me”

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…
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And I haven’t looked back since.
I must have cried 25+ times throughout the first few days, just by myself. For no damn reason. Just start tearing up. But I knew that this was a demon I had to conquer.
And you know what, it isn’t painful to fight this demon. The pain comes from the EXPECTATION of pain that you’ll feel, when trying to fight nicotine. But believe me, you can do it.
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…
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I am now 15 days clean.

Me, the guy who all my family, friends, everyone – would NEVER EVEN FATHOM quitting – I’ve fucking quit.
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I’ve ALREADY quit for good. I say that, because there are no ands, ifs, or buts. There is absolutely 0 chance of me relapsing. Done is done. I’ve had enough of you, nicotine. 15 years you’ve taken from me. You've given me nothing and have taken so much. But now no more.
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That’s 15 years of bad health.
15 years of hurting those around me.
15 years of not being fully ‘present’, because I’d always need my nicotine fix.
15 years of thinking that school/business/weed was giving me ANXIETY, but it was actually nicotine that was doing it.
And most importantly, 15 years of being controlled by this monster they call - nicotine... now - over.
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The labor is finished. The task is complete. The next level of life is unlocked. Goodbye nicotine, and thank you for absolutely nothing.

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Thank you to anyone who read this far. That is my story.
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Here are the tips and tricks I used to FIGHT BACK against my addiction. I hope this helps someone:

1. You must know, that you must FIGHT. I promise you, it’s worth it. You might think nicotine is making you “less stressed” and giving you “more energy” to deal with life – but it’s a false illusion. It’s a temporary fix, for more pain later. And it snowballs.
These past 2 weeks have been the most STRESSFREE I’ve been, actually.
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2. The first thing you must do is download an app. Some type of quit smoking app. The one I used charges $7 a month, but gives you access to counselors. Trust me, it’s worth it. Just spend that damn $7, even if you feel like you don’t need it. It will force you to talk to these people.
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3. Next, in order to fight the cravings, you must MOVE YOUR BODY. Just force yourself to move it.
Take a walk, do some yoga, do some meditation, go for a run.
I know these 4 things are things you DO NOT WANT TO HEAR, or are LAZY AS FUCK when it comes to it….
But believe me – from smoker to smoker:
When you’re running at full speed, you aren’t going to be thinking about a cigarette or vape. You’re going to be thinking about how badly your lungs hurt.
I ran through that pain. I used this pain to EXORCISE the demon out of me.
If I did have a craving while walking, then I had to punish my body with a small 10 second sprint.
Believe me, it’s fucking worth it. It felt so liberating – as I hated running. But for some reason, running this time, feels great. My lungs stopped hurting as bad. More air was going in them.
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4. Throughout your activities, put on some motivational podcasts. These helped me immensely. Just type something like “change your life motivation” into YouTube. Play it in the background, and go for a small jog. I guarantee by the end of your jog, you’ll be a better person than you were before you started that jog.
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5. GUM. BUY GUM. XYLITOL is my go to, because it will WHITEN YOUR TEETH. Plus, it will define your jawlines. Remind yourself of this. Remind yourself to take care of yourself. Yup – just by you taking care of yourself, this DOES snowball. So don’t forget.
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6. Replace the unhealthy habits with the healthy habits. WAIT – before you skim past this, hear me out.
Think about HOW MUCH TIME YOU WOULD SPEND VAPING/SMOKING. THINK OF HOW MUCH EXTRA TIME IS WASTED, BECAUSE YOUR BRAIN HAS TO KEEP SWITCHING TASKS AS YOU GET CRAVINGS.
Now fill that void, with stuff that makes you a better person. Fill that void with meditation and yoga, because chances are, the nonsmokers in your life don’t do that anyways. So let’s take this opportunity, to ascend in our lives and get to the next level.
I started showering 2-3 times a day, started taking better and better care of my health, grooming, cleaning, sorting out my life, etc…. and you know what – doing this has been immense help.
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7. Steps 1 to 6 were very helpful to me as now I rarely get cravings. HOWEVER, when I do, there are a few things I tell myself. Some mantras. Some phrases. Check this out.
> First, identify if it is a PHYSICAL or MENTAL craving. If it’s physical, that means you need to get your body moving. Do something else. If it’s a mental, gum will do the trick.
> If it’s a mental and gum isn’t helping, I assure you this trick will help. Instead of trying to resist your craving, instead… just WATCH YOUR CRAVING COME AND GO. Just watch and observe. Don’t fight, don’t react. Just watch it. Just feel it. It’s there, but it isn’t really. So just watch it come and go. Because it will go.
> You must view the nicotine craving as a demon. The evil nicotine demon. You must realize, that when you feel like shit due to the cravings… that more nicotine isn’t the solution. Do you feel pain that you’re going to explode and die because no nicotine???? My friend, that’s EXACTLY WHAT THE NICOTINE DEMON does to you. It tricks you into thinking that the solution to this pain, is more poison in your body. Think about that for a second. You want to cure pain with poison????!?!? Kidding me.
> Lastly, you must remember the main benefit of quitting. I thought it was my health, but I was wrong. It isn’t your health. It’s not money. It’s not family. It’s not this, not that. I’ll tell you what it is.
The main benefit is that you’re more present and in the moment. You’re here. You’re normal again. YOU. ARE. BACK. TO. NORMAL. AGAIN. Don’t you ever forget that. This has implications on every aspect of your life. So let’s make these implications GOOD implications. Trust me, you will thank yourself later.
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8. Allen carr has a great book and there are links somewhere here. But to sum it up in a nutshell, or at least to give you what I GOT out of it – Allen carr smoked 100+ cigs a day, even when he was ALREADY dying. He had constant pain. He was so addicted, he had to smoke in order to turn on a light bulb. Goddam, now that – is addicted. Yet, he was able to quit.
He used a simple shift in mentality, which also helps me. What is it?
QUITTING SMOKING IS NOT YOU TRYING TO CLIMB THIS LARGE UPHILL MOUNTAIN OF PAIN.
EVEN IF YOU’VE ONLY QUIT AND BEEN CLEAN FOR 5 MINUTES… THE POINT IS THAT YOU ARE ALREADY AT THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN.
You’re already “quit”. Now, you have to make that downhill climb of “maintenance and not relapsing” into smoking.
Well, that’s what I got out of it – but I encourage you to read it.
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9. Lastly, if you’re ever in a tough time, please TALK ABOUT IT. You guys here on reddit, are absolutely amazing. Hearing the stories of others, being able to provide insights to others, and helping others through their struggles – is really a medicine and high of its own.
If it wasn’t for all these support networks and amazing subreddits and people in them, I’m not sure if I could have done this. Seriously.
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So please, if you’re in a similar position, and have a craving – before you send more poison into your body, why don’t you send someone here on reddit a message. Even me. Post something. Comment something. Just reach out and talk to someone! Because you’re not the only one struggling. I thought it was impossible for me to quit, but I did it. Just trust me, there’s something about talking to someone who has been in a similar situation, which is really reassuring. And at this point, we really have to support each other because smoking technology is only going to get more addictive and accessible as time goes on.
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Thank you guys for reading everything. It is a long story, yes – but I sincerely hope this helps someone. If you need help, just ask and I will do my best to help.
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15 years I smoked every single fucking day. Now I’m 1 day clean for each year I smoked. Pretty soon, it’ll be 2 days clean for each year. Then 3. Point is – I’m done with nicotine, and there is no looking back. It feels fucking great to be free again. To be myself again. And to have my full potential back again.
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And P.S. - Fuck you, nicotine. Seriously. Fuck you.

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Sincerely,
Kenny
submitted by iECOMMERCE to stopsmoking [link] [comments]

Your Pre-Market Brief for 08/20/2020

Your Pre Market Brief for Thursday August 20th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Published 3:15 AM EST / Updated as of 4:00 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Tuesday 08/19/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday August 20th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY!
News Heading into Thursday August 20th 2020
NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
Note: Seeking A url's and Reddit do not get along.
Upcoming Earnings:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/20/2020

Pre Market Brief for Monday July 20th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 5:00 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Friday 07/17/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Monday July 20th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
News Heading into Monday July 20th 2020
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Weapon modding - a guide for newcomers

The weapon modding in EFT is hands down the most complex weapon modding system in any game on the market. But at the same time it can be extremely intimidating due to the sheer number of weapon mods in the game, that is in the hundreds if not north of a thousand.
This guide is more focused on a low level player experience overwhelmed by the sheer abundance of stuff. While it becomes substantially easier when you unlock the flea market and especially the workstation, but it's much more efficient when you know what to do and you're not figuring stuff out by trial and error.
Before we get to business, we need to establish a bit of theory. You don't need to memorize every single part in the game, but you do need to know how to recognize it's purpose.
To start off we will focus on rifles as they're the most complex in terms of modding and will provide you with skills that will be transferable to other weapons in the game.
To get a nice baseline for modding in the game let's focus on two gun patterns - AR's and AK's as they are the most complex in terms of modding.
AR pattern guns cover not only Assault Rifles like the M4A1 or HK-416, but also Designated Marksman Rifles (DMR's) like the RSASS or SR-25 or even submachine guns like the MPX.
AK pattern guns cover not only a variety of AK's in all varieties of calibers - 7.62, 5.45, 5.56 and even the civilian 366 TKM, but also the DMR's like the SVD-S and submachine guns like the PP-19 or Saiga-9.
  1. Lower Receiver - this is is where the main gun mechanism with the trigger, firemode selector. It's the main base of the gun. This is also where we attach the pistol grip.
  2. Charging Handle - used to manually cycle the bolt. Don't worry about them at all, they don't affect anything beside ergonomics.
  3. Upper Receiver - The second most important part of the gun. Here is where we can mount our scopes, attach our handguard and barrel and feed the magazine.
  4. Barrel - these can be interchange to adjust to our needs. For example longer barrels provide more recoil reduction, but at the cost of ergonomics or viability in CQC. Some handguards are only compatibile with certain barrels and vice versa.
  5. Muzzle device - here we have all of your flash hiders, compensators and suppressors.
  6. Gas block - a vital part that's used to carry the exhaust gasses back to the receiver to cycle the bolt. Modding wise we have only a few viable options, but a bit more on that later.
  7. Handguard - this is where we can attach our front grip, lasers or canted sights. Different harnguards also offer different perks like ergonomics, recoil reduction
  8. Buffer tube and stock - Only the buffer tube is a necessary element of the gun, but the stock provides a massive recoil recuction so you'll always want to have some sort of stock on your gun. Some stocks also offer an ergonomics boost.
  9. Pistol grip - vital part, only impacting ergonomics.
  10. Magazine - different magazines have different ergonomics impacts and other modifiers as reload speed.
https://reddit.com/link/iwgunq/video/cr9g2xkosbo51/player
These were the AR pattern rifles, but how do AK's differ? In simple terms, while the base of the gun for AR's was the lower receiver, in AK's the receiver, charging handle and barrel are all one part. There is also no differentiation for lower and upper receivers. Everything else is roughly the same.
Let's go over that:
  1. Gun base (barrel, receiver and charging handle) - main gun mechanism
  2. Gas block - vital part similar to AR pattern guns, but with one caveat - there are gas block and handguard combos available!
  3. Pistol Grip - same as for AR
  4. Handguard - same as for AR.
  5. Dust cover - first big difference, this part is optional and the gun will work without it, but will lower your ergonomics
  6. Stock - same in principle as AR but with a small difference. Contrary to AR rifles, some AK's have side foldable stocks.
  7. Muzzle device - same as for AR
https://reddit.com/link/iwgunq/video/wmjfkjfpsbo51/player
Aside from that we also have an assortment of other weapons that have less complex modding capabilities like Pistols, Shotguns, SMGs, Sniper Rifles and Carbines, but those don't benefit as much from modding as rifles.
Pistol modding typically involves suppressing it, adding a flashlight and adding a compact red dot on top of it. Much the same for shotguns although the stock versions are good enough most of the time.
SMGs offer a little more with the addition of front grips. Sniper rifles and carbines in some cases have different chasis but that's more of a late game gimmick.
There are two essential parameters that change the most in the process of modding a gun - recoil and ergonomics. There are also other like sighting range, accuracy and muzzle velocity, but they are more inherent to the gun itself and changes are negligable.
Recoil is self explanatory but ergonomics might be a bit confusing. In short ergonomics influence:
  1. Speed of aiming down sights
  2. Amount of noise during aiming down sights
  3. Stamina drain during aiming down sights.
Pro Tip #1 - The inspect window is your friend.
Every single item in the game can be inspected which will give you a movable window with a 3D model of the part, context buttons, attachment options, stats & info and lastly a description. There's also a cool feature which shows you which guns a given item is compatible with, however it only shows the ones that you have in your possesion (both in raid and in stash!).
Additionally we have to note that the caliber of a given gun is marked in the top right corner of the gun box:
https://preview.redd.it/pyofvfhqsbo51.jpg?width=819&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d502201fe7a71ad5da9c7be09a1021df6036a9f

Modding a gun!

To mod a gun in Escape from Tarkov you have two options:
https://preview.redd.it/xxy8g74wsbo51.png?width=318&format=png&auto=webp&s=732873642df74b3e095e9244978665d74cc6986e
https://preview.redd.it/fwo7ls2zsbo51.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=1271d9dd73e43b1a3dc94d6c7f53d1b27de875ae
This is also available in raid, but limited to attachments that are actually moddable in-raid, everything else will be grayed out. Typically the only moddable parts are muzzle devices, stocks, scopes, sights and tactical devices.
https://preview.redd.it/3fuq0fc2tbo51.png?width=1503&format=png&auto=webp&s=dda4d9980f736db863a2372fc3c6e92f3e454158
https://preview.redd.it/7yq03rc4tbo51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=506d2cc75f5b1c496aebf04db797b33c3948c859
The main difference between the modding screen and preset screen is that the modding screen shows only parts that are in your stash, while the preset screen allows you to see all compatible parts that are known to you (as in, you have examined).
This is something that you'll want to unlock as soon as you can. However, until you get access to the flea market, it's usefulness will be severely limited.

---- Sights ----

First thing you'd want to do when you get a gun in EFT is probably to put on a reddot so you're not forced to use iron sights. For that you have two options:
https://preview.redd.it/zbs63xwftbo51.png?width=1752&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcd8bc6db2f1371ba5bdf98b6c43170b177e2e10
https://preview.redd.it/42ivrkoitbo51.png?width=1719&format=png&auto=webp&s=de07599315d3f07cb3d84ca9a3bf59d544a50b54
If you want to mount a sight on a picatinny rail, it's simple. Just slap it on the weapon and you're good to go! But if we want to do the same thing for an AK, we need either an additional mount or a scope that's already designed to utilize the dovetail mount like the PSO 1, USP-1 4x, Cobra EKP-8-02 or OKP-7 (Dovetail))
There is a wide array of rails for dovetail mounts: Axion Cobra, Pilad , B-13 or the B-13V among other. None of them however are available to you in the beginning, but it's good to look of for them when looting.
https://preview.redd.it/flrucd0htbo51.png?width=1599&format=png&auto=webp&s=c05d62e7679516a05eede551b11e1b12d0cb9d70
There's also the option to put sights on railed dust covers, the most popular one being the Bastion dust cover, commonly found in crates and scavs. There are 3 other ones, but they're uncommon and available late in the game. To put one on you have to remove the default dust cover and the rear sights.
In terms of choice it's really up to personal preference. In the beginning every sight is an upgrade over irons, but as you progress through the game so experiment!
The most popular red dot, by far, is the PK-06 due to it's slim frame and clear sight. One of the most often spawning reddots is the P1X42 which is also quite decent.
Somewhere sitting in the middle we have Assault scopes which combine long and close range capability like the ELCAN SpecterDR 1x/4x Scope or the Valday PS-320 1x/6x Scope. They're typically, directly mounted onto the rail, with the exception of the Trijicon ACOG scopes which require an additional mount, but also are compatible with the AR Carry Handle !
In terms of long range scopes, the PSO family of scopes and the USP-1 is your best bet at low levels as it's available at Prapor LL1. In terms of proper optics they come in 3 ring mount variants:
Then we have our special scopes like thermals and nightvision scopes but I wouldn't bother with them for now. The thermals don't spawn in raid, the NSPU-M is meme-level trash and the Vulcan requires an additional mount available at Jaeger LL1.
Lastly, we have the mosin PU 3.5x scope, but it requires two aditional mounts available at Prapor LL2 and fits only on the regular Mosin variant (not on the Infantry or Sawed off versions).
Pro tip #2 - Change that gas block!
Let's say you find an ADAR or an M4, put a sight on it and realize that there's this pesky front sight in the way.
​
It's like this <--- but you want it like -
The problem is that the front sight is combined with the gas block, but luckly it's an easy fix - you just have to replace the frontsight/gas block with the MK12 Low Profile Gas Block.
https://preview.redd.it/dk4ygac4ubo51.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c55d6af28bdeae4c1bce71cb3eb5158d5748dd9
It will also be necessary when you replace any of the handguards, speaking of which...

---- Handguards ----

Now let's say you want to put a frontgrip, laser or flashlight on your gun - for that you'll need to have a railed handguard. These come in two forms: integrally railed and modular. Modular handguards require additional, sometimes exotic, additional mounts to allow you to put on attachments. There are also mixed ones that have a rail for sights, lasers or flashlights but require a mount for a grip.
How to identify them? Just open them up in the inspect menu and rotate around.
https://preview.redd.it/953yn7vjvbo51.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=4df3f74ffb999c830b2e007384a6d983df99c220
The most commonly used ones are the M-LOK guides which fit on the biggest amount of handguards. However, to make matters worse, they come in different lengths which limits what they can be used for. A 4.1 in guide can be used for a foregrip only, while a 2.5 inch can be used only for lasers and flashlights. They're available at LL2 Mechanic, so quite advanced into the game.
The earliest available handguard mounts are the Vltor CASV keymod mounts, unlocked at LL2 Peacekeeper, but they have a limited comatibility.
With that in mind, you should be on the lookout for handguards with integrated rails. Even if you gain access to the flea market a lot of them come with an inflated price tag.
That said, handguards such as the aforementioned B-10M , CAA RS47 should be your prime interest when it comes to AK platform weapons. Sometimes you can also find the Aggressor, which is a top tier handguard.
It also has to be mentioned that these handugards (and handguard-gas block combos) allow you to mount Red dot sights! However this is only true for AK-pattern handguards as
For AR's like the M4A1, TX-15 DML or ADAR 2-15 you basically have only the option of the Daniel Defence RIS series - RIS II FSP 9.5 or RIS II 12.25. There's also the KAC RIS available at Peacekeeper LL2.
All other require additional mounts, but out of those the LVOA-S and LVOA-C are of interest as they use the Vltor CASV keymod mounts.
Similar systems like the HK-416, MPX, RSASS, SR-25 or even the SA-58 already come with their own proprietary handguards and (with a few minor exceptions) are not interchangable! The stock versions of the HK-416, MPX and the short SA-58 already come with railed handguards and only the higher tier ones require additional mounts. Also, if you happen to hit the jackpot and loot a TX-15, these already come with attached mounts.
To wrap it up, here's an example of a modded AR handguard with a canted backup sight, laser pointer and a front grip. (yes! individual parts also have their own individual sub inspection screens!)
https://preview.redd.it/q39bd9xyvbo51.png?width=1077&format=png&auto=webp&s=09dafcf547857b24c32eb5a4d6f3cad3842f6da9
As we can see the front grip (Shift) can be mounted only on the 4.1in M-LOK mount, wwhile the TBL laser pointer goes onto the 2.5in M-LOK mount. In case of this handguard we can see 4 additional slots for 2.5in M-Lok mounts which allow us to place the laser pointer in multiple configurations - underneat, on the sides or the 45deg angle mounting point. Lastly we have the T-1 backup sight.
--- Backup sights ---
Almost a necessity when running a long range fixed zoom scope like the PSO. Backup canted sights require you to have a railed handguard and the NcStar MPR45 Backup mount available at Peacekeeper LL2, so pretty early. It does spawn occasionally but it's price gauged on the flea so beware.
https://preview.redd.it/ataatk8rvbo51.png?width=585&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1b63f72b956101661a4585599e48bded670d254
The backup mount only takes compact sights - the earliest one available to you is the Burris FastFire 3 Reflex Sight at Peacekeeper LL1.

--- Front Grips ----

For front grips the formula is quite simple - it's better to have one, nevermind what it is. At minimum they add ergonomics, but some also provide a substantial recoil reduction.
I recommed checking out this followin cheat sheet made by u/platypus364:https://www.reddit.com/EscapefromTarkov/comments/g2rltf/foregrips_cheat_sheet/
Allmost all of them are interchangeable except the Hera CQR which only fits on selected rifles.

--- Stocks ---

Stocks serve the main function of providing a substantial recoil reduction boost, ranging roughly from 30 to 50%, so you'll always want to have a stock on your gun (some won't work without them!). Some also provide a boost to ergonomics.
Proprietary stocks are used only for one type of gun. Use the Inspect window extensively to find out.
Western fixed stocks are mostly found on the AR pattern rifles, the HK-416, RSASS, SR-25, SA-58, M1A SASS, but also on russian weapons like the RPK-16 and the TAPCO SKS chassis.
Most stocks need to be put on the buffer tube and they're interchangable for the most part with one exception - the Magpul PRS GEN2 stock that needs the COLT "A2" buffer tube. The GEN3 variants can go on other buffer tubes.
There are also stocks that combine the functionality of the buffer tube and stock into one Gen.4 , M7A1 PDW or the UBR GEN2.
I recommend you use the following cheat sheets for best AR stocks by u/platypus364: https://www.reddit.com/EscapefromTarkov/comments/g2misk/ar_stocks_cheat_sheet/.
Russian AK pattern fixed stocks go only on non-folding variants like AK-74 , AK-74N , AKM , AKMN , Vepr AKM/VPO-209 and Vepr KM/VPO-136.
The best ones are the Zhukov-S and the UAS stocks so be on the lookout for them.
All other AK variants, the PP-19, Saiga-9 and Saiga-12 all take folding stocks. By default, they have their own stocks but there are also two other superior options from Zenit, the PT-3 and PT-1 with the former being better by a hair and is also the top folding AK stock in the game. However, they need an additional buffer lock to be able to mount them, available at LL2 Skier: AK74/AK100 PT Lock.
Often times you're best off by putting on the Recoil pad, available at LL2 prapor, on the default gun stock which grants you a handsome -5% recoil reduction.
[ Side note start ]
To make matters slightly more complicated, we have two outliers in the form of our favorite AKS-74u and the AKS-74, that have a similar albeit different lock: AKS-74/AKS-74U PT Lock.
But that's not all. There's also the AKM/AK-74 PT Lock which allows us to mount the PT-1 stock on fixed stock AK variants!
But wait, there's even more! You can also put western style stocks on both fixed and folding AK pattern guns (except the Magpul PRS GEN2 ), but that's more of a 30+ Lvl gimmick offered at LL3 Mechanic. Still they ocasionally spawn on scavs so you might be on the lookout for those.
[ Side note end ]
Speaking of stocks it's worth to mention carbines and snipers. We've touched on them before and while for the most part modding is very limited and more prominent in late game progression.
However we can single out the SKS as it's an entry level weapon and does warrant some attention.
The SKS comes in two variants - the regular SKS and the hunting variant OP-SKS which has the ability to accomodate the Dovetail OP-SKS mount, which is essential if you want to use any long range scope.
The default stock chassis don't allow for any modding, but there are the Fab Defence UAS Stock which has a rail for a red dot and a tactical device or the Tapco stock which also has a red dot rail but also allows a front grip. You'll find the Tapco variant on scavs sometimes, and the UAS spawns in weapon crates.
Lastly, theres also the UTG SKS SOCOM Rail mount which allows you to mount a front sight or a flashlight. Just drag and drop (only off raid!) onto the SKS and you're done.

--- Charging handles ---

I wouldn't bother with them at all, they just provide a minor ergonomics boost.

--- Pistol grips ---

Aside from one exception, they only affect your ergonomics. As always, the Inspect window is your friend for compatibility. They're "nice to haves" but I wouldn't put prime focus on them in the beginning.
There are however pistol-stock combos for the AR's - one is the default ADAR 2-15 wooden stock and the other is the Hera Arms CQR pistol grip-stock.
There's also a pistol grip-buffet tube combo for the AS VAL.

--- Magazines ---

Magazines are very fragmented and in general there's little interchangeability between them. Most of them are proprietary, but there are some that are interchangeable, particularly the 5.45x39, 5.56x45 and 7.62x39 variants.
Magazines, aside from different capacities, have impact on ergonomics and magazine loading/reloading time. Typically bigger magazines are less ergonomic and take longer to load. As always, check the inspection window for stats.
Overall when it comes to charging handles, pistol grips and magazines, I wouldn't worry about them too much in the beginning stages of the game.

--- Barrels ---

Exchangeable barrels are mostly a feature of western rifles, DMRs and shotguns. Carbines and SMGs with the exception of the MPX come with only one barrel variant. Russian rifles (with the exception of the RPK-16) have the barrel fixed to the receiver.
Barrel length typically is proportional to recoil reduction at the cost of ergonomics. Shorter barrels are mostly utilized in CQC environments.
Some handguards for the AR platform will only work with specific barrels. Here it's best to use the Presets modding window as it can get somewhat confusing.
Barrels have decent per slot value and are always a worthy pickup.

--- Muzzle devices ---

Muzzle devices divide into 3 categories:
All follow the same general theme of being bound to a particular caliber (or calibers), but there are some exceptions when it comes to threading. For example the AK-103 and AK-104 rifles have a different barrel threading than the AKM derivative rifles, but that can be bypassed by using the TT AKM adapter.
I wouldn't concern myself with adapters for now. A lot of them are virtually useless (i.e. thread protectors), some of them are just for variety (i.e. additional compatibility). The only few that are worth attention are the ONE Mount for Gemtech suppressors and the SVD-S Thr. adapter as it's the only way to mount a suppressor on the SVD-S.
Suppressors are always worth picking up and using. In the current Tarkov soundscape, suppressors are almost hollywood quiet and personally I never run without one. If you have none, a compensator will be fine. The inspection window descriptions should always give you an indication if it requires an adapter or matching muzzle break.
A good rule of thumb at the beginning is to keep suppressors matching to the gear you have available to you but sell the rest, particularly those that need an adapter.

--- Tips for sub Level 10's ---

Contrary to popular gospel, you're not limited only to SKS's and Pacas for the first 10 levels. Here are a few tips and tricks to get you started.

--- Tips for using the Linked Search function ---

When you finally get access to the flea market, you're only bound by your wealth. There's a function called Linked Search to help you find compatible items.
While the feature is pretty self explanatory, searching can seem unreliable. The most important thing to note is that clicking Linked Search on an assembled gun, does not return the list of parts compatible with that particular gun. Instead it returns the list of parts compatible with that particular type's gun base!
So if you're looking for a matching muzzle device for that M4 you've just looted, you have to do a linked search on the barrel! If you want to change the handguard, you need to do a linked search on the upper receiver. And so on.
Here's a shortened cheat sheet to
submitted by sunseeker11 to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

DKNG - Fundamental DD Inside - DKNG

This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here.
NFA.
DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino
The Big Picture
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average.
Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf
Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here.
Digging Deeper
DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack.
For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range.
This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later.
Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform.
So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino.
As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform.
Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino.
Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
Things to look for when going Long
- Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized
- Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability
- Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Share Price Target
Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73
Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10
Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47
These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base.
At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs.
Share Price drivers / considerations:
- Continued multiple expansion
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Management Team
Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards.
His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around.
Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys.
Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward.
TL;DR:
If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.
​
[1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19
[2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302
[3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d
[4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20
[5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php
[6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
submitted by IAMB4TMAN to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Rural Ohio 8.10 "Not much bad news is good news?"

Rural Ohio 8.10
Thought y'all would like a few pictures of how the shelves looked on a normal trip to the store. ... Yeah, these are normal prices for around here. You'd think we'd be the first to see any inflation / disruption.
  • We had a "Derecho" / "Inland hurricane" come through tonight, last one was 2012. It just blew things around real good in my area, others weren't so lucky, Billions in damage already, will see more crazy posts / pictures in the morning.
  • Update on PPP worries: It seems people's hours have been shifting all over. One person says they're still working crazy overtime, others say things have slowed a bit. However it seems like demand is still strong for many things made around here.
  • Semi trucks are still running fast and full / busy. Seeing more "hot-shot" trucks hauling so you know things are pretty busy as those guys aren't cheap.
  • Lumber prices are high if you can find any.
  • Lumber is being shipped south from / through Michigan and can been seen regularly on rail.
  • Detroit has been cranking out 2020 model vehicles that can also be seen on the rails heading south. . . Almost an unreal number of cars.
  • Trains seem about normal in length, not nearly as long as they were months ago during the shutdown.
  • Honda is indeed cranking out cars.
  • Gasoline is hovering at $1.80, Diesel around $1.90 (cheapest, $2.30 avg)
  • Oil Rig counts are still crazy low (like down 70%), yet we're still using more than before. I honestly think Cushing Oklahoma and a few parts of Texas are the only things keeping prices down. It's weird how oil has been right at $41 a barrel now for months! Its never been that steady. Here's a good source.
  • Crops are still doing well as seen in one of the pictures.
  • Renters are still jumping ship into mortgages rapidly as 30yr fixed is 2.88% now, nearly everything is selling rapidly in residential real estate.
  • Theft is up.
  • Mask use is required in every store now. Seeing face shields even.
  • Back to school mask use has many skeptics, mainly in the K-4th or so grades. Many say "welp... this isn't a good idea"
  • People are doubting the accuracy of COVID testing, especially after the Governor tested positive, then negative. In a recent conversation: "So that's fun not knowing for sure unless you're basically dying."
  • Pawn shops and thrift stores are still at low inventory / wiped out.
  • Nearly all sports are canceled
  • Nearly all flea markets / large sales are canceled.
  • Went out to eat this weekend with my SO for the first time in a long time to make up for Valentine's day, the places we drove by looked dead, the "popular" place we decided to go to was dead. Silver lining..we had great service??.. Shrugs* This is going to kill so many restaurants :/ THIS WAS ON THE WEEKEND!
  • Speaking of silver, who knows where it will end up. It was $29oz spot today, With many products being sold in the $35oz range if you could find them in stock. Comex stock exchange is being used to obtain physical silver in mass. JPMorgan is still increasing their position in both physical and miner stock. 1000oz Bars have a "pay now, wait till April 2021 policy." Seriously... Its drying up. We may see a small correction but I'm still bullish on it due to how hard its getting to find.
  • The "coin shortage" is a mixed bag here, most people think its a hoax or evil plot.
  • The "ammo shortage" is beginning to get real, 22lr are coming out at ranges again as people are saving the big stuff for a worse day.
  • DXY / Dollar (93) index has been struggling along with bonds (0.55ish for 10yr)
  • "FEDNow" Is apparently the "Digital dollar" that people have been talking about. They hope to have it running in the near future. This probably should be watched more closely than it has been.
  • This just in! Winner of the 2020 election is the Fed's printing press! ... I had to.
Going International now:
  • Food shortages are developing in Asia / India as the floods and locusts discussed a month ago are beginning to take their toll. Vietnam is reporting people are attempting to cross borders in mass, in search of food. (I have no idea if they're trying to smuggle food back in or just leaving in search?) Either way things seem to be getting real serious over there from the limited window I've seen through, farmers revolting and everything.
  • Read Australia's PM and ex-PM think a US - China war is possible in the near future with everything going on in the south china sea. Active sonar was recently heard by someone on vacation, though classified information / a location wasn't disclosed, we're still betting Pacific somewhere.
​
I think I heard some of you yell \"What year is it?!\" That 56 cent Chocolate milk though.
As far as the eye can see corn and beans.
Cheese at 17cent Oz
https://preview.redd.it/5fkg2bnfpag51.jpg?width=3006&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cbb7699008f5dfae2b8c417ae003decec9eb44bc
Nice
https://preview.redd.it/deh3gmmfpag51.jpg?width=5344&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=17f2fc17e5ee440b2e267b8f3a78544b4438c805
submitted by AntiSonOfBitchamajig to PrepperIntel [link] [comments]

Bankroll Management Part I

Bankroll management is arguably the most important concept to understand to maximize your chances of success (or rather, minimize your chances of failure).
Consider this scenario: You magically become a world-class handicapper and can win 55% of your bets on -110 lines. Did you know that with a $1,000 bankroll and flat betting $100 per game at -110 lines, you would go broke ~14.0% of the time after 100 bets? After 1,000 bets the chances of you going broke are a more staggering ~31.0%.
Why does this happen? Despite a positive expected value, you’re betting too much. And this gives you a high risk of ruin.
‍Kelly Criterion
With a 55% win rate on -110 lines, the Kelly Criterion states that 5.5% of your bankroll is the ideal wager size to maximize the median return of your portfolio. So, what if we flat bet $55 instead, which represents 5.5% of our bankroll. What’s our risk of ruin then?
After 100 bets? ~2.0% After 1,000 bets? ~13.0%.
Better, but still significant risk of ruin.
Some might be surprised to see any risk of ruin at a 5.5% bankroll allocation. One of the assumptions, however, that the Kelly Criterion relies on is that bet sizes are a percentage allocation of your portfolio and not a fixed amount. Among sports bettors, a fixed bet amount is frequently referred to as a bet “unit”.
‍Bet Units vs Bet Allocation
Record: 72-53 +13.7 units
Patriots -7.5 2 units
Sports bettors love to measure their performance or display their picks as a function of “units”. Most people use it and because of its widespread adoption, it’s easy to communicate between parties. Since it’s become the de facto unit of measurement for sports bettors, it is widely accepted that the best way to practice bankroll management is to 1) determine your wager size and 2) never deviate from that bet size.
Let me explain the risks behind that strategy and why Cleat Street doesn’t recommend it.
‍Flat Betting $55: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
We all know how to calculate the expected value, or EV, of a single bet. All you need is three inputs:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): $50
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -$55
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
So - if we want to determine the EV of 1,000 bets, can we just multiply $2.75 x 1,000 and get an EV of $2,750?
If you had unlimited funds, then yes. While there is variance around our expected win percentage, our ending bankroll would be normally distributed with a median of $3,750 ($1,000 starting bankroll + $2,750 EV). Without the constraint of going broke, the distribution of the ending bankroll looks as follows:
Bankroll distribution
However, most of us don’t have unlimited funds. We are constrained by our bankroll, so we must account for the possibility that we lose our entire bankroll at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000. As a result, we might not get the chance to finish making all of the bets.
Monte Carlo Simulation – Flat Betting
To determine the likelihood and impact of going broke at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000, we can use a Monte Carlo simulation. We simulated the 1,000 bet opportunities 10,000 times resulting in the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: ~13.0%
Expected Return: ~4.8%
Median Return: ~ $2,645
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~265%
Without the benefit of an unlimited bankroll, the risk of ruin decreases our EV by nearly 5%, decreasing from $2,750 to ~$2,645. Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, our median ending bankroll is ~$3,645 but has a distribution as displayed below:
Ending Bankroll Distribution
Bet Allocation of 5.5%: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
When you bet a percentage of your bankroll, the expected value calculation changes a bit. Your payoff outcomes are now framed as a percentage:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): 5.0%
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -5.5%
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
To determine the EV of 1,000 bets, however, we cannot just multiply 0.275% x 1,000 and get an EV of 275%. This is because each bet compounds on one another when you are betting a percentage of your bankroll.
Ok – so instead we determine the expected value by saying that you expect to win 550 bets (55% x 1,000) and lose 450 bets (45% x 1,000) and calculate by compounding the returns as follows:
Median Calculation
The above computation reflects the median of the distribution of outcomes as well as the most likely outcome. Yes, the most likely outcome is that you win exactly 550 games, which would generate returns of $2,967. However, this scenario happens only 2.54% of the time. [1] The rest of the time, you either win more than 550 games or less than 550 games.
[1] Binomial probability inputs: Prob (Success): 55%, Num. Trials 1,000, Num. Successes, 550.
Binomial Probability Calculator
We get the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: 0.0%
Expected Return: 5.0%
Median Return: $2,967
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~297%
“So you’re telling me, I have no chance of losing my entire bankroll, and I can increase my EV? That sounds too good to be true.”
You’re right – the above metrics are true, but they don’t tell the whole story. Although the risk of ruin is zero, there are many scenarios where you could still walk away a loser. To properly assess, we need to take a closer look at the distribution of outcomes.
‍Lognormal Distribution
The returns generated by using a bet allocation bankroll management strategy follow a lognormal distribution. A lognormal distribution is frequently used to describe the price of financial assets and effectively states that 1) the lowest that your bankroll can go is zero, and 2) your returns have a long-tail to the right.
Visually, the distribution of the ending bankroll after 1,000 bets looks odd when plotted on a linear scale:
‍5.5% Bet Allocation - Linear Scale
When plotted on a logarithmic scale, however the distribution appears normal (hence the name “lognormal”):
5.5% Bet Allocation - Logarithmic Scale
As you can see in the distribution above, there are scenarios where you still walk away a loser after 1,000 bets. In fact, betting 5.5% of your bankroll in this scenario will lead you to losing money approximately 20 percent of the time. To properly assess the risk-return profile, we’ll have to take a deeper look at the full distribution of outcomes in Part II.
What we’ll find is that although the Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes median wealth in the long run, there are still considerable risks that may not make it ideal for most bettors. An underlying assumption is that it requires you to know your true win probability, which is impossible. In Part II, we explore Kelly Criterion in further depth and show how you can use the same principles to tailor a bankroll management strategy that better fits your risk appetite.
Bankroll Management Part II will be posted tomorrow
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

[GUIDE] So you're an American who wants to live in Europe, eh?

Hi all, I wanted to put together a brief overview or sort of wiki thing for one of the biggest groups I see on here: Americans wanting to move to Europe. If you have questions or more to add (or you disagree!) please leave a comment and I can edit my post accordingly.
DISCLOSURE: I'm just an American guy who did it myself, and I see a lot of people who seem to want to move to Europe. Your experience may vary... dramatically. I'm sure plenty of people will take exception

So you want to move to Europe, huh?

Welp, you're probably not the first person to think of that. Before you make the leap, I think it would be helpful to hear a few things from someone who has done the leap before. Twice, actually.
My background: I am a 35 year old college degreed (Bachelor's degree only) man with a wife and two kids. When I moved to Germany in 2014, I was only a US Citizen, though I was pursuing Italian Citizenship via Jure Sanguinis. My first move to Europe had me qualifying via a Blue Card, but now I have an Italian passport and moved back to Germany this year.
OK, enough about me. Before you move, you need to really think about what you're trying to accomplish by moving to Europe.
Why do you want to move?
Do you realize moving to a foreign country sucks?
OK, yes, I've done it twice now. But suggesting that it's "easy" by any stretch of the imagination would be laughable at best. Moving to a foreign country means dealing with differences, many of them bigger than any differences you've ever had to deal with in your life. The cultural differences can be massive, and can even hurt your professional life as you struggle to adjust.
Besides these things, there's the elements of just moving to a place where you don't know anyone, have very few common cultural experiences with which to build friendships, and perhaps other European cultures are less friendship inclined than America (my experience is that it has been very tough to make German friends due to them tending to stay in their own friends circle from their early adult years throughout the remainder of their life)
You may not be welcome here OK so a few elements to this. First of all, in a foreign country in which you aren't a citizen, you are, by default, a guest. That means that at any time, you could be potentially deported if you Fuck Up Real Big™. It doesn't happen a lot, but understand that you're at a huge disadvantage of not 1) Knowing the rules very well because you didn't grow up with the same rules. 2) Don't speak the language so you can't get yourself out of trouble as easily and 3) The local government doesn't need to put up with your shit if they don't want to, unlike a citizen.
But besides this, remember how you didn't like the American politics? You know who else might not? Your neighbors, or your coworkers. You know how some Americans have hostility towards immigrants for the perception of stealing their jobs? Yeah, that exists everywhere and you're going to just have to deal with it. For most Redditors, I'm assuming many of you are on the upper social rungs of society... As an expat or immigrant, you're brought down a few notches.
What would you say you do here?
I've seen a lot of posts where people have no education, skills, or language, and want to move to a particular European country. Dude, really? Going back to my previous point, you're about to be a guest in a country. Who wants a guest who shows up to the party and just drinks too much of the host's beer, throws up on the coffee table, and breaks a vase before going home scot-free?
Edit: A possible opportunity exists if you have Italian, Irish, or Jewish-German ancestry, in which case you may have a claim to citizenship. That is a great question to ask here on the sub.
This goes for "free education" too. Coming to Europe simply to save on school fees (funded by taxpaying local citizens) and then going home? Kind of a dick move, to be fair, and gives some people a bad reputation. If you're truly looking to emigrate (for a long-ish time) then pursue the education, it's definitely your best way into Europe if you are at that stage of your life, but just make sure you find a way to provide value to your host country.
If you do have some semblance of job skills, your best bet is likely to pursue an opportunity through a multinational US corporation with a European presence. That'll likely help you deal with the aforementioned cultural gaps (since they'll be used to American culture), and may allow you to get a visa through company transfer, rather than having to compete for a Blue Card or some other heavily contested visa.
The Blue Card is probably the best approach if you're a seasoned veteran. That's how I was able to make my first European move, but it required me being an executive in an industry that's decently small for them to make the case that they couldn't find someone to do my job who already was within the EU. If you have high skills and a strong career, you will have an easy path. If you do not, the best way is to figure out how to get into this skillset in the US then transfer over. (My opinion here only)
Are things really that bad for you? Is the grass really greener?
The US offers unprecedented opportunity, a market of 350 million English speakers, geographic and cultural variety, and perhaps most important to some of you: the world's strongest wage environment. Expect to take a 30-50% paycut if you move to Europe. My US company started analysts at $60,000 per year. The company in Europe I went to had the same role and they made 28,000 EUR. Coupled with the taxes, your take home will be a lot less. Sure, you might spend less on rent, healthcare, car, etc., but it's something to think about before pulling the trgger.
Other things to consider:
That's all I have for now, but I'm sure more things will pop into my head.
If you're still not scared through all this, go for it. It's very rewarding, but it'll be a huge challenge (and for those of us who love the challenge, it makes you a better person!)
submitted by Purdue49OSU20 to IWantOut [link] [comments]

About Si14 Betting exchange.

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submitted by Si14Bet to u/Si14Bet [link] [comments]

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https://reddit.com/link/il6chv/video/z5o1vh94gqk51/player
submitted by Si14Bet to u/Si14Bet [link] [comments]

Am I the Psycho One Here??

Dear Reddit – I am sure I will get skewered but I am struggling to figure out what has happened to me over the past few years.
Three and a half years ago I got an email from an old love "Jim" that was going through a divorce with his wife. I’d like to explain – that I was very careful and standoffish in the beginning not wanting to effect the course of the marriage in any manner. I actually asked and encouraged him several times – to go to his wife and ask her if they could work things out. He did twice and he told me that she said there was no way to save the marriage. Shortly thereafter – I fell in love – hard. His wife had kicked him out of the house and he moved in with me and my two kids that I share half time with my ex-husband. I was a little worried that things were moving so quickly - but Jim assured me that his feelings were real, that he loved me like no other and that he had thought about me for the last 20 years.
I was extremely happy – thought I had finally found the love of my life – he was hilarious, intelligent, kind to me, generous and successful. The first year and a half was perfect. I should have known – it was too good. I was madly in love and we spent all of our time together. I knew the relationship was not entirely healthy – he was an alcoholic and a gambling addict and his mood could sometimes be very dark. He also had an almost non-existent relationship with his family. I tried to bridge the distance between him and his mother as well as the rest of his family members and I became close to them and we spent Thanksgiving and Christmas together for the past few years. My two kids also became very close to his two kids.
The first major red flag that occurred was a little over a year in. The daughter of a friend of mine came to stay with me (and Jim) while she found an apartment in the city I lived in. Jennifer was 27 years old and very attractive. I recall one Saturday afternoon – she wanted to go to the thrift store – I wasn’t in the mood and Jim eagerly volunteered to take her. I felt weird about his eagerness to spend time alone with Jennifer and maybe sulked about it for a couple hours but got over it pretty quickly. A few weeks later – we met Jennifer for dinner. She was wearing a very very very low cut shirt and I recall Jim being almost giddy at the dinner table. Jim often commented on how “hot” young girls were but I am not the jealous type – and often thought he was just being over the top to be funny. Later that evening we ended up going to a strip club – Jim starting flirting with the waitress and when Jennifer wanted to leave – he begged her to stay – I ended up getting upset and went home angry. Jim stayed out. I called him several times and he finally called back to say that he was staying the night at his nieces house. It didn’t sound right – I went to his old phone that was laying in a drawer and found his location. He was at Jennifer’s apartment. I immediately drove over and knocked on the door. He was sleeping on the couch and ended up going home with me. He apologized explaining that he just needed somewhere to stay because they had drank too much. I felt as if he wasn’t telling me the truth. I called Jennifer two days later and she told me that he had also tried to kiss her and was “very persistent” but that she declined and that nothing had happened. I was devastated. I confronted Jim and he apologized and said it would never happen again. However – his apology seemed hollow and he got angry at me when I wasn’t getting over it fast enough.
After the Jennifer incident – things seemed to go back to normal. We spent most of our time doing the things he enjoyed i.e. drinking, gambling, strip clubs, cartoons etc. I didn’t mind because we had fun – lotsa fun – at the end of the night we would dance and sing to songs he would play for me and he would whisper sweet things in my ear… like how he wanted to marry me in Hawaii and how he wanted to take care of me, buy a house with me, etc. His younger son lived a couple hours away and he would spend a week with me and then a week up at his house near his young son. We talked about buying the house we were renting and fixing it up – or buying a house somewhere else. We spent holidays together and our kids got along great. I was happy.
But – something always seemed to be a bit off – I didn’t fully trust him. I began noticing that he would be on his phone a lot – texting. So – while I never felt the need to look at my ex partner’s phones and I’m not proud of this -- I ended up snooping on his phone. I found part of a conversation that he was having with his friend “Mandy” and another woman – where he talked about wanting to cum on someone’s face. I confronted him – he said he was joking and that if I ever looked at his phone again – he would dump me because to him – this was a major violation of trust. Unfortunately - because I was so in love – I believed him. I found it strange that he didn’t see my point of view at all i.e. that his past actions had made me feel insecure in the relationship and that I felt that he needed to earn my trust back. Jim said I was ridiculous for feeling insecure and snooping. I was also taken aback by the intensity of his anger surrounding the fact that i had looked at his phone.
Time went on and things were mostly good unless I showed any emotional neediness. If I said I was stressed about money for instance – he would tell me I was a downer and to stop playing the victim. I was working full time and Jim did not have to work but instead was living off of the 400k that he had in his stock brokerage account when he and his wife divorced - that he had since turned into 1.2 million dollars as well as his ownership interest in the family business. I was often stressed -- because I had previously lost some of my savings/retirement in an investment and was working 50 hours a week for a boss that was very full of himself (I had worked with several difficult people in the past – but this guy was different – he would actually say things in an extremely condescending manner to try and make you feel stupid – and I wasn’t the first employee that had spent a day at their desk in tears because of harsh words by this guy). If I complained about money or my boss – Jim – would get agitated – and tell me that he bet I didn’t dump this kind of emotional baggage on my other friends. I was disappointed – but eventually learned to control my emotions and not look to Jim for emotional support – however, I would lose it from time to time like when Jim would talk about his great success in the market – and I would just want to feel like we were a team and that we could build a future together.
At this time, I also began noticing that he was spending less and less time with me and more and more time in the City where his son lived -- even when his son would be in the care of his mother. I would complain and he would tell me that if I wasn’t so emotional – things would work out and we would bet together forever, we could be a team etc. I had also noticed that he wasn't say nice things to me as often. In fact, I couldn’t remember the last time he had told me he loved me or that I was pretty or anything else nice for that matter. I also remembered that during this time – he accidentally sent me a text that was meant for his single friend “Don.” He was planning on going out on Don’s boat that day and asked if there would be any other “single” people there because married people were “boring.” I was hurt and asked him if he wanted to be single – he said that again – I was being childish and that he was an adult and didn’t want me restricting his freedom. For the next six months – I vowed to stay chill with my emotions – no matter what occurred and whether it hurt.
I remember around Christmas last year – he sent me a text saying – that he wanted to tell me that he loved me – because he knew he hadn’t in a very long time – and that I was kind to him and that he didn’t deserve it. I was so happy – to hear that he did still love me that I burst into tears… I had thought that because I had been “good” and not bothered him with my emotional baggage or other relationship "demands" i.e. seeing each other more.… that he loved me again and that things would go back to normal i.e. we would start planning our future together and see each other more.
I remember some time last February – I went to Jim’s house and ended up waking up in the middle of the night. I sat down at his computer that he had given me the password to when we were trying to place a sports bet. I went to type in something and noticed the first previous search bar that popped up was a craigslist add for a hooker in Dallas Texas – where his adult son “Matt” lived. I knew that Jim was planning on visiting Matt for his birthday and while I had been invited on such vacations in the past, I wasn’t invited on this one. Shortly thereafter, I was making Jim’s bed and found a condom on the floor. – we didn’t use condoms. I confronted Jim on both issues. He became livid and the discussion got more heated than I would like to admit. He accused me of being insecure, emotional, petty etc. and explained that he was planning to rent this hooker for photos with Matt and his friends for Matt’s birthday. He also explained that the condom was probably Matt’s from the time Matt and his girlfriend had spent at his place during Christmas. He then told me he no longer trusted me because it was obvious I was snooping, violating his trust etc. and that I needed to leave his house immediately. He then accused me of bizarre things like – turning over the photos of his kids (which I had not done – I actually loved his kids and had even put photos of them up at my house). I told him I wanted to stay and to try and work things out – but his tone was so mean – it was like I was talking to another person. I broke down and cried – Jim had no empathy – he told me to stop being a baby, to grow up and get control of myself.. Jim left me at his house the next day and told me that he was so angry he was staying somewhere else. Once again – I was devastated and he made me feel as if it were my fault. And I believed him.
Things were on and off again from there on… Jim would be kind and show me attention from time to time but then other times – would tell me I was too emotional and “crazy” for him to be with. He also started saying – things like – I need to find a new “good” girlfriend and that I should do the same. I thought he was joking. I felt strongly that he had fallen out of love or more likely was never in love with me but somehow believed him when he would say that if I could just stop being so emotional and needy that the relationship would strengthen and go back to how it was in the beginning. During this time - I would ask Jim how he felt about me and he would tell me that he “loved” me when I was being normal and not crazy. So – I stupidly tried to sweep my feelings under the rug and offered up my love and friendship to him without asking for anything in return. Towards the end of the summer – Jim planned a family vacation with his kids and his niece that I had also become friends with. My sons and I weren’t invited. I was hurt but he explained that he didn’t need someone “crazy” around – and that he just needed to spend some quality time with them. I understood. He and his kids stopped by my house on their way back from their vacation we hung out as if we were a couple again. We were intimate and Jim even sent me a text of quote talking about loving someone so much that it hurt. I was happy – He said we could see each other more if I would just stop being so psycho all the time.
Shortly thereafter – Jim invited me to his house – I was excited. I thought maybe we were starting to repair things. I hadn’t been there in months. While I was there, he took me to this property that he had decided to buy with this young single mom/real estate agent that he had just met. I was upset - but tried to hold it together. I think I was mostly upset because we had talked about buying a house together where I would put down some $$ and he would put down some $$ and I had also asked him several times if he had wanted to invest with me as I loved investing in fixer-uppers and building spec homes. He had always declined explaining that he didn’t have enough money because it was all in stocks etc. and that if this stock went up he would etc.
When he took me to the property – I said it was beautiful – but that I wasn’t sure if it would make a good investment as the sitework would be very expensive and the price that you could get for the homes out there didn’t really justify the costs involved with the development. He got angry- very angry – and called me petty, jealous, insecure and immature. He said – you’d have no problem if she was a male. I said that wasn’t true and that maybe I was a little insecure about the fact that she was so striking but that most of my hurt stemmed from the fact that he wanted to invest with someone else other than me – after I had sent him a million properties to look at as an investment over the years and he had declined all of my ideas. I asked if – I could see the numbers and if it looked good, I could maybe put in some cash too as it would be fun to do a project together – he said "no – I don’t want to do a project with someone as emotional as you." I later found out that he had purchased the property with cash and formed a LLC with this woman that he did not know and was willing to split the profits with her 50/50. We got into a huge argument – and I lost it. I screamed that he was mean and that I thought he was buying property with another person – just to spite me! He called me manipulative and controlling just like his mother and ex-wife. He explained that he was an adult and could buy anything he wanted. I said - I agreed but that it still hurt because I felt like he was listening to this woman's opinion over mine. I cried – and for the first time ever -- He laughed at me for crying. It was at that point – I started questioning everything – did this person who I deeply loved – have any empathy at all whatsoever? I had seen him hug his niece when she was upset and crying once – but he had never offered me that kind of care when I was upset. But to actually laugh and take enjoyment from someone else’s pain? I was not only devastated but I then started questioning not only my own judgment by my own sanity. Maybe – I deserved this – I thought – Maybe I am jealous… I know I am too emotional… etc. I left in tears.
We slowly starting talking again. Then - a couple weeks later – I was on social media and noticed – that he had commented on this photo of this female with her boobs hanging out – it was a fire emoji. I was hurt and pissed. I had no idea that he was out flirting with other people. I thought we were on again off-again -but that we were still working things out and might get back together. After I saw his comment, I sent him a million angry texts that I’m not proud of – things like “f*&$ you” – “I hope you drop dead” etc. I know. I know. No excuse - not okay - I own it. I realize that this was an overreaction for a comment on a photo – but by that point – I felt as if it was a confirmation of what I had thought all along – he was treating himself as single when I wasn’t around -- I had finally lost it and was angry – very angry. I thought to myself – what else don’t I know? That’s when I checked Tinder – I made a fake account and sure enough – Jim was on there – “divorced for 20 years. Friends first then connection. No drama.” My heart shattered. I had no idea he was actually dating other people – especially since we had just slept together a week and a half earlier. I was so hurt. I immediately called Jim. His immediate reaction of course was anger – but when he understood that I knew he was on Tinder – he explained – that his "friend" had signed him up and that he had only been on for a week and that we were broken up. He also said he was deleting his account. I took that as a sign that there was still a chance we could mend things. I know – I look like a pathetic idiot at this point.
After the Tinder incident - I told Jim that I still loved him and wanted to work things out - he immediately showed up on my doorstep and spent the next couple days with me – he was sweet and kind, and we were intimate – but we didn’t talk about our future at all. We again started texting all day long like we had done before when things were good and when I tried to raise the issue of how he felt about me - he basically said - don't start- and that if i could just let things be -- they would get better. At this point – I had no idea – how Jim really felt about me – I just remembered the good Jim and how great those first two years had been – and the last six months just felt like this surreal bad dream. I just wanted it over – or to know once and for all how Jim really felt about me.
That's when I did one of the worst things I’ve probably ever done. I signed up on Tinder under a fake account and sure enough – Jim was on there. This was of course – after he had stated several times that he wasn’t. I swiped right – Jim had liked me too!! I sent him a message as “Carly” and before you know it – I was meeting Jim for a drink… and I was extremely flirtatious… the texting quickly turned sexual - he loved it – I ended up cancelling at the last minute (because I’m two hours away) – and said I would make it up to him. He said he could meet up with me on Saturday after he got back from running an errand near where I lived (Jim didn’t tell me he was coming to my town to run an errand). Friday night, Carly texted to see if they were still on - he texted back saying he was horny and couldn’t wait... Shortly before his Tinder date – I was sure to tell Jim that I missed him and loved him and still wanted to work things out. He texted me back a love song – (which he had explained was his way of telling me he loved me) with lyrics like “the love that I feel is oh so strong”… etc. I was disgusted - It was at this point that I realized that not one of the songs that he had sent me in the past meant anything to him. That it was all lies. I hopped in the car and drove up to meet him – he showed up looking dapper and ready to mingle. I thought about just cancelling on him – but I needed to see his reaction – because in the past – when I had confronted him about questionable behavior – he was always able to explain it away – and I was usually in such an emotional state – that nothing was ever clear. This time, I would be watching his reaction closely with a clear head and there was really no way he could explain this away.
When I came walking in – he looked as if he had seen a ghost. Jim was livid. I tried to tell him that since things had been so confused and he wouldn’t be honest with me – that I had to figure out for myself what was going on. He said I had gone too far and that this was next level devious/psycho shit and that if I posted this story on Reddit – I would be the one skewered. I felt bad. I told him I was sorry that I had hurt his feelings and that I didn’t do it to make him feel stupid or embarrassed – that I just needed to know the truth. He actually told me - that he just wanted to talk to some person that was nice and wasn't me or is his ex-wife. I didn't really say much - because there was really no point anymore. So anyway – I am posting this on Reddit – to see – if I am a terrible person or if perhaps – my crazy actions might have been justified by Jim’s behavior. Sorry – this is so long – but – without the background facts – even I think that I appear psycho. Also - while I still love Jim - I don't think there's any recovering from the above - Thoughts??
TL/DR - i made a fake Tinder account after months of breaking up and getting back together with my ex to see if he was lying to me about his feelings and interest in dating other people. He set a date with my fake Tinder girl, I showed up and he was extremely angry - called me psycho and said if i posted this on Reddit - I would be skewered.
submitted by anonpsychogirl to relationship_advice [link] [comments]

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