2020 Tuscan GP Free Practice 1 and 2 Debrief

Words by UnmeshDatta26, showstopperNL, and Death_Pig

Discussion Threads:

The Worst Kept Secret Of The Year Is Confirmed

Vettel to Aston Martin, Perez goes where?

Since Ferrari announced that they would be signing Carlos Sainz for the 2021 season to partner with Charles Leclerc, the future of Sebastian Vettel has been in limbo, with murmurs that he was even considering retirement. The biggest rumor all season was that he would join soon-to-be-renamed Racing Point, spearheading the Aston Martin rebrand.
The rumors are now confirmed. Following Sergio Perez announcement that he would leave the team after 7 years of service, Vettel is now officially signed with Racing Point/Aston Martin and while the contract’s length has not yet confirmed, reports indicated that he will take a pay cut, supposedly earning a third his current salary at Ferrari. According to Otmar Szafnauer, Racing Point’s CEO and Team Principal, it certainly seems that Vettel will be given a steady hand and a steady team for him to settle in and fight.
We would be remiss if we did not mention Sergio Perez’ contributions to Racing Point’s current standing. When the Force India team was in danger of collapsing, Perez’s actions bought it enough time to finalise a sale to the group headed by Lawrence Stroll, saving the team (along with many jobs). The outpouring of support and gratitude for his efforts by team personnel are certainly enhanced by the knowledge that the team would likely not be in Formula 1 without Perez.
Although many people say there is no place for sentimentality in the cut-throat business of F1, the humane connections formed while battling the other drivers and teams run deep and it is clear that Sergio Perez was a beloved part of the team and will be missed by many.

Change of Scenery at Williams

After Claire and Sir Frank left Williams last weekend in an emotional goodbye from the paddock at Monza and CEO Mike O’Driscoll announced he would be leaving the team, the questions started swirling around for who would come in to replace them.
For now, Simon Roberts has been promoted to Acting Team Principal and will lead Williams until the new owners can decide on the changes they want to implement. Roberts began his career in F1 in 2003, joining McLaren to be their Operations Director and General Manager, later moving to Force India in 2009 as their COO before a return to McLaren in 2010 as an Operations Director and a part of the Executive Team. He would become McLaren’s COO in 2017, a post he occupied until May, when he became Williams’ Managing Director.
We all hope he can steer the team through this difficult period towards a brighter future.

Quick bits

Ferrari celebrates their 1000th GP in F1 with a new special burgundy livery, the same color as their first-ever car that raced in Monaco in 1950. Their driver suits have also changed to the same color with a large 1000 logo on it, also present on the cars engine covers. Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc are racing with special helmets to honor the occasion.
Haas and Racing Point have settled a two-year dispute over payment of F1’s prize money. Haas had originally argued that Stroll’s Racing Point should not receive their Column 1 prize money for two years, as they were a new entry, as Haas did when it entered the sport in 2016. As this was not the case, Racing Point receiving Column 1 prize money normally, Haas brought a case against it, saying that either Racing Point should not have been paid or Haas should have received the same payments for their first 2 years.

Haas had launched the protest against Racing Point at the end of the 2018 season in Abu Dhabi. Today, it was announced that the two teams had reached a settlement, details still very hard to come by.
In a press conference by Szafnauer and Haas Team Principal Guenther Steiner, Szafnauer said: “We’re pleased that it’s come to a conclusion and now the entire team can focus on what we’re here to do and entertain the fans, we’re happy it’s behind us”, which close the matter without providing any details.

Track and Tech Talk

Mugello is the first of several new tracks for Formula 1 in 2020, and this weekend will be the first time a Grand Prix will be held at the track, but not the first time Formula 1 cars have gone around it.
The track record was set by Rubens Barrichello in the F2004 and half the current drivers have taken part in races at Mugello (a list of which will appear as a comment to this Debrief), with 6 current drivers having also taken part in the 2012 Pirelli test at the track.
Set in the Tuscan Mountains, the surrounding area has some similarities to the Red Bull Ring, with Mugello being a very fast track, featuring blind corners due to the terrain’s undulation, with Turns 8 and 9 (Arrabbiata 1 and 2) probably being the most impressive part for Formula 1 cars, as they are expected to take the double right-hander flat out, subjecting the drivers to massive G forces.
According to Mercedes’ fact sheet, 66% of the lap time is spent at full throttle, and the lowest speed corners are somewhere near 120 kph, much faster than most other circuits on the calendar. The drivers can expect to take anywhere between 4 and 5 Gs of force at Turn 9. Valtteri Bottas was quoted after FP2 saying “this track is definitely one of the most physically demanding. We’ll only properly get to see the effects of that in the race distance, but even today, I could feel it and it’s going to be tough for everyone on Sunday”.
There is only one DRS zone on the start-finish straight, with the detection point being just before the final turn, with only 5 braking events in the whole circuit, despite there being 15 turns, 6 to the left and 9 to the right. This track is a true test of the power and grip of the modern era cars, with drivers expected to take some corners flat out, notably the aforementioned Arrabbiata corners.
Pirelli has brought the three hardest compounds (C1, C2, and C3) for this weekend. The asphalt at Mugello is famously abrasive, so Pirelli expects high degradation from the asphalt and from the loads the high-speed corners will impose on the tires. As the cars will run high downforce packages, the loads will increase, and we can expect a powerful DRS in the start/finish straight.
And for the first time this season, there will be fans in the grandstands, as Mugello will allow close to 3.000 fans to watch the race live, bringing a small dose of normalcy to a very strange 2020.

Free Practice 1

After weeks of anticipation, it was finally time for the cars to hit the track at Mugello. All teams went out to do their installation laps right away, using tires they would return to Pirelli midway through the session for analysis. Lando Norris tested his radio in the most Lando Norris way possible by singing. Happy Friday everyone!
A cautious session ensued, with Mercedes coming out on top, Bottas topping the first-ever official Formula 1 session at Mugello, Barrichello’s track record duly broken. The Finn was closely followed by Red Bull’s Max Verstappen, the Red Bull looking good this weekend, in contrast to their tough weekend at Monza. The nature of Mugello with fast sweeping corners should favor Red Bull’s aerodynamic dominant design, and we expect the team to take the fight to Mercedes.
A fairly big surprise on the FP1 time sheet is Charles Leclerc closing the session in P3. Time will tell if this was a single lap glory run, or a glimpse of actual pace this weekend, but things can only improve from last weekend.
As usual, 6-time world champion Lewis Hamilton was not far from the top, even if he “only” managed to clock the 4th fastest time, some 0.5 seconds back from his Mercedes teammate.
Last week’s winner Pierre Gasly impressed again, finishing 5th. Just like big brother Red Bull, AlphaTauri looked good around Mugello in FP1, with Gasly’s teammate Daniil Kvyat setting the 7th best time.
After a torrid weekend in Monza, as can be read in u/Death_Pig’s A Weekend Chez Renault piece, Esteban Ocon will be looking to bounce back at Mugello. The weekend certainly got off to a good start as he was 6th fastest in FP1, 0.3s quicker than his teammate Daniel Ricciardo, who finished in 10th.
Sandwiched by the Renaults were McLaren’s Norris in 8th and Red Bull’s Alexander Albon. While completing the most laps in the session (34), the second Red Bull had a slow start to the weekend, ending FP1 a full second behind Verstappen.
Further down the leaderboard, the biggest surprise is Racing Point down in 18th and 19th. The two pink cars appeared out of sync with the rest of the teams in doing race simulations, even causing some slight frustration between Stroll and Verstappen.
Other than Carlos Sainz being down in P15 for McLaren, the back of the grid had the usual suspects, with Giovinazzi P14, Russell P16, Magnussen P17, and Latifi P20.
The only incident of note in the morning session was Nicholas Latifi spinning into the gravel trap, but able to get going again.
FP1 did not answer many questions, but highlighted that the tires will be a big topic this weekend. The track does indeed punish the rubber quite severely and the teams will have their work cut out for them making them last.
With the teams having only three practice sessions to acquire all their tire usage data, this could throw a wrench in whatever plans the teams have made so far.

Free Practice 2

A fairly standard FP1 was followed up by an incident packed FP2, with Albon starting the session going back to the future.
The first to kick the excitement off was Leclerc, who spun into the gravel and was lucky not to beach his car, in a similar incident to Latifi’s in FP1.
After starting the morning on a high note, Lando Norris will have few reasons to sing after FP2. The young Brit put a wheel on the gravel coming out of Turn 10 and was lucky to only lose a front wing, and as the McLaren could not return to the pits, his session ended.
The red flag came out and the timing of it was awkward, as teams were preparing and/or starting their race simulations and had to abort their plans.
After the damaged McLaren was out of the way, the session restarted and the teams started their qualifying simulations, setting their best laps of the session. Bottas led the way again, going into the 1:16s for the first time, the current lap record now 1:16.969s. Hamilton was 0.2s behind and Verstappen almost matching the #44 Black Arrow’s time, only 0.039s behind.
Just as teams were settling into race simulations again, the 2nd big incident of the session occurred. Kimi Räikkönen and Sergio Perez collided in a very weird accident coming out of the pit exit into Turn 1. You don’t typically see collisions like this in free practice, but as the Racing Point came out of the pits, Perez could not see the Alfa Romeo, and as Räikkönen turned into the first corner, he clipped the front wing of pink car, spinning into the gravel, while Perez had to return to the pits for repairs (and will have a 1 place grid penalty for it). As the clash left a scattering of debris on track, the red flag came out again, ending many long runs.
The second session was less kind to Ferrari, with Leclerc P10 and Vettel P12 after a perfectly executed pirouette midway through the session. Racing Point fared better, but P7 (Perez) and 11 (Stroll) is not where the team wants to be, so it remains to be seen if they can further improve on Saturday. As Mugello will probably not offer many overtaking opportunities, a poor qualifying can hinder a team’s fortunes on Sunday.
Haas looks particularly in danger, as Grosjean could only complete 5 laps and Kevin Magnussen, while notching 32 laps was unable to beat Williams' Latifi, the teammates occupying P19 and 20, respectively. Kvyat, who closed the session in P15, must also improve, especially as his race winning teammate was P8 in the session.
With 12 minutes to go the mess was cleared, and cars took to the track again, before Vettel’s Ferrari decided to end their session earlier. The car turned itself off and ended the day’s running.

Conclusions after FP2:

Due to the long runs getting cut short, it is hard to ascertain where teams stand in terms of pace, but Red Bull does appear to be more competitive this weekend. Verstappen’s tire management could be an important part of the race, but it is yet unclear where Mercedes stands. This is not to suggest that they will not be the strongest team on Sunday, as betting against the team in 2020 seems foolish, but we can hope that Red Bull will challenge, especially if the temperature should rise.
The midfield battle still is as close as ever. With the new power mode directives in place, this could be another circuit where a midfield team, like McLaren, could challenge the top teams by pushing in a higher engine mode than the rest. On a track like Mugello, every ounce of power is crucial to overall lap times and the restricted overtaking opportunities could help a slightly slower car hold its position. After an all-midfield podium and an AlphaTauri win last weekend, we would certainly not complain if Sunday brought some surprises.

Tales from 2+2: The Biggest Loser at Microstakes of All Time, A Story of Struggle

Link to Previous Tales From 2+2: Poker player steals $1m+ chips and tries to sell it on 2+2 poker forums
More Tales From 2+2: A Very Controversial $70k prop bet
Tales from 2+2: Homelessness, Grinding and the Biggest Shot of a Grinder’s Life: The Jared Huggins Story

The Blossoming of TV Poker

The Year is 2006. Online poker is thriving. Partypoker has the highest traffic of any poker site but Pokerstars are gaining new players quickly with aggressive marketing strategies. Lots of poker sites are investing heavily into marketing and one key place to channel their advertising budget is TV. New innovations, improved graphics and increasing funding meant that poker TV is at an all-time peak of popularity.
40% of the the 2006 WSOP Main Event’s attendance is from online sites and poker sites are offering large amounts of cash for players on TV to wear an advertising patch. According to Dan Goldman’s blog, Pokerstars spent over $730,000 on WSOP players’ gift bags. The WSOP is seeing more TV time and this year the $50k HORSE event is added to the TV schedule alongside the WSOP main event. This year’s $50k WSOP HORSE final table saw some huge names including Chip Reese, Phil Ivey, Patrik Antonius and Doyle Brunson.

The Path of a New Player

In Finland, Mikael Paisting is watching the 2006 WSOP on TV. He enjoys watching poker broadcasts and is fascinated by the game. It’s a very common story for players to catch an interest by watching poker TV and sign up with to one of the many poker sites available. He chooses to deposit on Partypoker. Mikael is a committed learner and player. He reads several poker books from well-known authors such as Dan Harrington and David Sklansky. He also watches many training videos. Like many players starting in online poker he begins at the microstakes cash tables.
Microstakes are a rite of passage for many online poker players. The limits range from 2nl to 10nl, so the standard buy in is $2-10. Some will play microstakes for weeks, months or even years improving their game and increasing their bankroll so they can move up to small stakes, 25nl and above. Some players see the microstakes as a job and play as many tables as they can to eke out a living wage. Some players have never played microstakes and skip it entirely for higher stakes. Mikael starts to play and doesn’t do well, this is normal for many beginners, even those who study. However, over the next few weeks Mikael continues to lose. Months go by and Mikael still hasn’t turned a profit. He discovers problems with tilt and often takes his frustration out in the chat box. An example of his rage:

Paisting:THAT IS NOT NORMAL OMG!! JUST UNBELIEVABLE

Mikael doesn’t play 10nl very often and spends the majority of him time playing 2nl and 5nl. He continues to multitable cash games on Partypoker but he just can’t win. He starts to lose big, thousands of dollars, mostly at 2nl which is known as the softest cash game on the internet.

Getting Noticed

Mikael continues to play long sessions over the next five years, he claims to play 5-7 days a week for 4-8 hours a day. By 2011 he had played 2 and a half million hands while playing 6 to 9 cash tables at one time. Mikael is still mostly playing 2nl and is down a colossal amount: $7000. Mikael has been suffering from major tilt problems and has a very wild and noticeable style of playing microstakes. He starts to get noticed on 2+2, a very popular poker forum. A player posts a link to his PTR graph, a site which tracks online cash games. They are shocked at his losses over so many hands:

yegor: wow such a massive fail
he played 2.5m hands at 2nl and 5nl and he's losing
Donkey111: I remember him from my 2NL days.
often goes on some massive tilt sessions and spews like 20 BI in 500 hands by shoving any 2 cards preflop.

He even gets hate from his PTR account where he is ridiculed on his profile comments, he also replies:

VELAir26: Spend your time with family, friends or other hobbies instead
Paisting: im fine with this you stupid idiot

Mikael continues to play his reckless and tilting style over the years. By 2014, he has been playing for 8 years and is down five figures at microstakes; he starts to look for excuses for how much he has lost. He posts a thread on 2+2 detailing how he feels that he wins at the start of the month and then inevitably starts to lose. He asks how he can take legal action against Partypoker. His fellow posters tease him:

5thStreethog: Did the thought ever cross your mind that it might be possible that the reason you cant beat NL2 in over a million hands might be because you arent very good at poker?

An Attempt at Redemption

2019 comes and Mikael Paisting has been playing microstakes for 13 years, and steadily losing a lot of money. He got a new computer in late 2018 and has been grinding away on it. Mikael is getting mentioned more on 2+2 and he is well known on the tables of Partypoker as he drops stack after stack. Many players on Partypoker furiously try to get on his tables to call his tilt shoves; when Mikael is present other player’s stacks can get as high as $100 at 2nl as he shoves buy in after buy in to button steals. Some were said to be using seating scripts to instantly be placed on a table with Paisting. At this point he is feeling very low. But despite years of losing money and insane tilting he is determined to improve. Mikael is aware of his losses and has a fierce desire to make back the money he has lost since he’s started tracking on his new PC.
He decides get help and he looks to 2+2, the very same forum that had mocked him over the last decade. He logs in as Paisting, his last name. He starts a new thread, types out a post and chooses a title: 'Biggest loser in online poker history wants to grind $16k'. He posts this thread in the sub-forum Poker Goals & Challenges, a place where players post their goals and try to update their thread with their progress. He posts graphs of his losses from his database on his PC. He starts the thread by posting some shocking graphs of $8700 lost at 2nl, $6000 lost at 5nl and $800 lost at 10nl. At 2nl he had an incredible rate of -170BB each 100 hands. The final graph of his microstakes losses posted show $15,000 lost over 365,000 hands. An average loss of $75 a day.
The 2+2 poker community are stunned by the graphs:

HorseofHell: I'm actually shocked it's possible to lose this much at 2nl
Mahsjdj: This can't be real can it?

Mikael posts about the hard work he’s put into poker and mentions that has watched videos, read many instructional books and is honest with his astounding losses:

Paisting: I've lost literally all my money including all my life savings to online poker. I want to try one last time to win those money back and little bit of extra. That's why $16k. What I need is support and guiding.

The community react to his plan to grind all the money back at microstakes:

Fodersneso: This is really disturbing.
Why on earth would you try to grind this all back? Losing at this rate is traumatizing. You're going to grind out 3000 BIs @nl5 now or what's the plan? Really curious how you think you can turn this pile of insanity around...

The community show disbelief and doubt that his story is real but several posters claim that what he says is true. He has been active in Finnish forums for more than 10 years and players starts to share hand histories and stories about his playstyle. He posts about his regret of picking the game up:

Paisting: Never had a winning week in 13 years.
If it were possible to go back ten years I would say to myself "Do not never play single one hand!"

He then goes on to tell 2+2 posters a disturbing source of his funds for his staggering 2nl losses:

Paisting: I've taken huge amount of fast loans.

He sheds a little light into his personal life:

Paisting: My age and relationships has nothing to do with this. But not working, no kids or wife and middle aged. What I have is time to play.
I get a little unemployment benefit that goes straight to the rent. My eating costs are very little because I'm only eating one meal per day. There are times when I must take more fast loans if need of clothes, unexpected bills, sickness etc. That's why getting back those $16k is so important to me.
No disability, never played anything else than poker or lottery when pots are bigger, maybe 5 times in year. Playing poker does not give me any excitement or I'm not cheering won pots.

Posters try to give him strategy advice, they try to persuade him time and time again that shoving 100+ blinds to a minsteal isn’t a good idea. Some others question his sanity and tell him to quit:

FazendeiroBH: Not trolling, I´m actually serious here. You lost an absurd amount of money playing the easiest stake in the world (nl2). You keep losing doing the same faulty strategy. No book ever said you should jam 100 bb preflop rfi. It´s quite obvious there is something wrong with you and your brain, and the more you delay seeking professional care for your mental problems, the worst it´s gonna be for you.

Paitsing updates his thread with highlight hands from his cash sessions. He seems to cherry pick hands to post and will only post hands where he loses all ins as a 70-95% favourite. He delusion leads him to blame the site, his luck and the other micro grinders. He often writes about specific players and gives his opinion on how badly they play. He often quotes their HUD stats and wide calling ranges while ignoring that they are probably adjusting heavily to his own playstyle. Some time passes and he discloses that he has lost almost $500 at 2nl since starting the thread three weeks ago.
He updates his followers with the first monthly graph of the thread from his 2nl play in April 2019. He plays for 90 hours in April and his average daily loss is $50, 25 buy ins each day. 2+2 players start to analyse the graph. They notice that there are several breakeven spots where he may be playing reasonable poker but also huge 150 buy in downswings, some drops in the graph are so steep that he is losing about a buy in every 5 hands for periods of hundreds of hands. He says:

Paitsing: Only trying to get my money back from guys who are playing nl2 forever and never moving up. When I started poker long time ago I tought it's exciting to read watch videos if it gives me more money. After 2 years figured out it's just sitting on computer like in work and if I'm someday +-0 never ever playing this stupid game. This is like war.

The thread goes on like this for almost a year. The thread repeats itself over and over. He will post a few selective bad beats, ignore good advice and berate his microstakes tablemates. A fellow microstakes grinder makes his first appearance in the thread: 6betpot. 6Betpot would play at Paisting's tables and often win many buy ins, 6Betpot would go on to post highly contrasting hand histories to the bad beats that Paisting posts, he would also reveal Paisting’s preflop 3 bet is around 30%. Some players would criticize 6Betpot for predatory behavior but 6Betpot would maintain that he would try to persuade Paisting to stop playing in a spewy manner. Someone asks to see the hands and 6Betpot posts some, here is one:

888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
BTN: 250.5 BB
SB (Paisting): 425.5 BB
BB: 101.5 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 106.5 BB
CO: 84.5 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) BTN has Ad Qs
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Paisting raises to 425.5 BB and is all-in, fold, BTN calls 248.5 BB and is all-in
Flop: (502 BB, 2 players) Kh 4s 4c
Turn: (502 BB, 2 players) 3h
River: (502 BB, 2 players) Jc
BTN shows Ad Qs (One Pair, Fours)

Paisting shows 5s Js (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)

Paisting wins 471 BB<
Later in the thread Paisting would reveal his line of thinking during hands like these; a poster asked why he though 3 betting hands like J5 was a good idea. Paisting replies:

Paisting: If you don't want them to run over you, you must do something. Blind play is very important and you can't let them run over you. When 80+ habit stealer gets shoves straight to his face he must learn at some point that I'm not giving blinds.

Many tried to reason with him and show him clearly why this was wrong, he not only refuted their strategy but would argue against them, often citing his opponent’s HUD stats.
Later on in the thread Mikael posts horrifying news. He explains that he didn’t transfer hands from his old computer to his new computer. The graphs he posted at the start of the thread only showed the tip of the iceberg. He reveals that $16k loss from the graphs was from just 7 months of play!:

Paisting: That 16k is in 209 days and in about 1 year as you can see from the first post. Big part of my losings has left to hard drive of my old crashed computer. That's past and I don't wanna think about it anymore. Main goal is this database I have here in my computer. But yes what I have been repeating many times, moving to 888 poker has sky rocketed my losses although I can play only 6 tables compared to party's 9 tables.

Posters speculate that his lifetime microstakes losses probably amount to six figures:

SpinMeRightRound: I mean if he's lost $20k in the last year, and he's been doing this for more than 10 years, he may have lost $200k or more.

In late 2019, Paisting claims that there was a ring of players were colluding against him. He goes on to say that the new site he plays on, 888, were asking for hand histories from certain players. He showed emails of his communications and posted that 8 players had had their account frozen. He also shows screenshots that his account is temporarily frozen during the investigation. Posters speculated:

CrunchyBlack: Pretty sure they think you're chip dumping lmao
.isolated: They think you're chip dumping to him. Funniest. Thing. Ever. The irony here is nearly palpable.

2020: The Struggle Continues

At the end of the year Paisting posts his 2019 graphs. He says that he hasn’t had a winning week yet and he’s still committed to making back 2019’s losses. His graphs show down 12k from 320k hands of 2nl in 2019.
In January 2020 he continues to post regularly and makes comments about him hunting down players worse than him:

Paisting: When you hunt really bad player (yes enzet there are plenty of worst player than me on 888 look those hand histories really carefully) hours and hours and wait good hand just to site let them to suck out it is affecting your game really badly.

He posts about his continuing struggle to win back the $16k:

Paisting: I have years dedicated for this project and anything back from that amount is winning to me. At this point it’s impossible to make any profit because of horrible suckouts.

He also posts about the high interest loans he’s taken out:

Paisting: I have huge amounts of loans that are basically all taken for poker. I don't eat much and all my other costs are very low.
And because of those loans I must get back so much money that is possible and these suck outs must stop.

February 2020 arrives and he posts his January chart, the worst posted yet. He takes a gigantic loss of $1,550 at an eye-watering rate of 210bb/100 hands. Often when he posts monthly graphs he would highlight that he ran a few buy ins below EV when he would be down hundreds of buy ins for the month.
The months pass and the cycle continues. Paisting posts the usual bad beats, posters berate him and try to give him advice and Paisting resists their efforts. Here is one of many similar hands posted in February:

888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
UTG: $1.46 (73 bb) Paisting (MP): $7.45 (373 bb) CO: $15.44 (772 bb) BU: $2.00 (100 bb) SB: $3.47 (174 bb) BB: $2.00 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.03) 1 fold, Paisting(MP) raises to $7.45 (all-in), CO calls $7.45, 3 players fold
Flop: ($14.93) 6c 7c 4d (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($14.93) Ts (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($14.93) 8h (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $14.93 (Rake: $0.93)
Showdown: Paisting (MP) shows 7d Tc (two pair, Tens and Sevens) (CO) shows Js Jc (a pair of Jacks) Paisting (MP) wins $14

March comes and the regular monthly graph is posted. The uploaded graph shows is he down $1900 or 950 buy ins for last month. Mikael refutes that he is a gambling addict:

Paisting: 888 has given many 10 dollar bonuses to me play slots. I have never played them and in fact my account has 20 dollars freeplay bonus to play their slots. I will not use those money now or in future. So that's gambling addict to you.

April and May roll by and the monthly graphs are posted. He played fewer hands than normal, 43,000. But is down $1,250, all at 2nl.
In June he posts the usual monthly graph with -$1900 and it’s the lowest win rate he’s posted before, a colossal -335b/100hands, the graph has some alarmingly steep downswings with one section where he loses $500 in 1000 hands. That’s a loss of one buy in every 4 hands. Getting these monthly updates shows how quickly he loses money at 2nl and collaborates with earlier estimations that he is likely down more than $100k at microstakes over the past 14 years. Approximations indicate that Mikael has paid over $20k in rake to poker sites over the years.

The End, for Now

Mikael is still playing microstakes to this day. His poker story isn’t over yet but so far it is a sad one. My previous two Tales from 2+2 stories had mostly happy endings but not this one. This story is like a car falling down a cliff and it hasn’t hit the bottom yet.
Let this story be a lesson that poker isn’t for everyone. Players with addiction or mental issues should reconsider if the game is best for their lives. Serious poker players should consider bankroll management and how tilt affects their winrate if they do choose to play.
Seek help if you think you or others need it.
Original thread (Still active)

Say What? A Real Brokedick?

TLDR: My Soldier Actually And Medically Broke His Dick
First, I would like to thank Military Stories for making me feel at home. This specific posting location has accepted me with open arms, and little judgement. I understand I have an increased propensity to utilize terms that are not Politically Correct (PC) or use vulgar terminology to describe human anatomy.
WARNING: I believe I have already adequately explained that I am more different than your typical poster. I may very well say things that offend you. You are certainly entitled to have your own opinion, but judging my entire body of work (Life) based on one story makes you just as much of a prick as me. Therefore we both live in glass houses, and I suggest you pick up a larger rock.
Brokedick: Military slang for an injured person who can't perform regular duties, especially suspected malingerers.
Bob twisted his ankle running, so now he'll be a brokedick for the next three weeks.
I assume anyone with a military background, specifically American's, understand that familiar word. Brokedick. Stephen Hawking was a brilliant theoretical physicist, cosmologist, and author. However, the majority of society were unaware of his acute medical diagnosis, so let us dispel that mystery. Tell your children to look away, because I don't know if it is age appropriate for the crib-midgets, mini-humans, or intellectually gifted teens in the audience. Stephen Hawking, yeah that guy was totally a brokedick.
The setting of this story is Fort America, and I was a Platoon Sergeant at the time. It was O-Dark Thirty, and we were about to conduct a Battalion "fun run." I have my own philosophy about running. I don't believe there is such a thing as a "fun run." This may strike a chord, but running is for the French and cowards. At least that is what my first Squad Leader told me.
Squad Leader: Private OP. Cardio is for the French and cowards. The Army assigned you a weapon for a reason. If you quit during combat, you better bleed out on a pile of warm 5.56 millimeter ammo.
OP: Roger Sergeant.
Squad Leader: This brings me to my next point. Always, and I mean ALWAYS buy French Rifles. They have typically never been fired and only dropped once.
Staff Sergeant Tony, my Squad Leader, had a real soft spot for the French. He lovingly referred to them as "cheese eating surrender monkey's". I am not exactly sure where his fierce love of the French came from, but they were always his "go-to" punching bag. It was always funny to hear how highly he spoke of them. Let's get back on track now.
I may not be diagnosed with hyperthymesia, but I remember shit. It is one of the few reasons why I am successful at my current assignment. My ability to vividly recall information helps me with work, and more importantly reader, it allows me to convey these tales of debauchery and shenanigans. There is no struggle to recall this particular story though. You never forget shit like this!
The Company was now in the Battalion formation waiting for the "fun run" to begin. The stereos blared stereotypical early 2000's "motivational"warfighter anthems such as, "Wake Me Up Inside - Evanesence," "Let The Bodies hit The Floor - Drowning Pool" and "War Pigs - Black Sabbath." I may have despised the slow "fun run," but the music truly gave us a murder boner. I would have socked Betty White in the face if the Battalion Commander said she was a High Value Target (HVT) in our target deck.
FUN RUN COMPLETE
The Battalion Command Sergeant Major (CSM) was delivering the typical awe inspiring speech. Topics of discussion were, "Don't beat your wife," "Wear velcro gloves if you enjoy fucking sheep," and "Call me if you are about to drink and dive." I honestly believe this information is delivered with genuine sincerity. In all my years of service I have only known of one Soldier calling Command Sergeant Major for a ride home from the bar. Fuck it, I made $20 bucks off that bet.
Anyways, the Command Sergeant Major imparts his sound advice, and it is now time for the Battalion Commander to speak. This man is not just any man either. He is a college educated apex predator coming out of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC). He is a certified Badass Mother Fucker (BAMF), and has likely killed more people than cancer. There is no doubt in my mind what he has to say is "muy importante."
The Battalion Commander steps up to the formation. He is visually intimidating. His presence alone demands attention. He looks like Xerxes, and we are his murder-minions. There is a bit of talking, and minor commotion in the nearly 700 person formation. He pauses for a moment, and demands our undivided attention. He is a BAMF, and so he gets it. Then? Then he said something that nobody expected. Holy shit he fucking said "it".
Battalion Commander: ZONK!!!
Some of you are still tracking, but some of you have fallen behind. It is a mad dash of assholes and elbows, but some of the dear readers are still standing in formation wondering, "WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK IS GOING ON?" Congratulations if you understand the importance of that word; ZONK. The rest of you just volunteered to wax and buff the Battalion Headquarters. Zonk? Zonk is a sacred statement in the military. I think it was passed down from King Leonidas himself. The word "Zonk" means you are basically off work, unless you are too fucking slow.
Soldiers are basically going in two different directions. Half are headed to the barracks, and the other half are headed towards to Company Operations Facility (COF), in order to get they vehicle keys and depart. Dear Reader, please understand that "zonk" is a very meaningful word. I would throw Mother Teresa down if she got in my way during a zonk evasion.
I successfully managed to negotiate the obstacles of feet, balls, and asses as I mad my way to the Company Operations Facility (COF). I still had pertinent work to complete, but I was most certainly going home early. I finished my required tasks around 1000. It was now time to leisurely stroll to my car and put on my civilian hat for the remainder of the weekend.
Now, don't get me wrong, and I enjoy the military. I really do, and I was look forward to a slightly longer weekend. I had made a tee time while a the office and I was about to enjoy some mid-day golf before the wife got home. The technical definition for the feeling I was experiencing is colloquially referred to as "tits".
Human: You had a blowout bash at you house this weekend and went through three kegs?
OP: Yeah!
Human: Oh Man. That's tits!
Get it?
I had made a tee time at a fairly renowned local golf course. I was excited to go shoot a good round round of golf, or shoot a terrible round and break the course record for most beers consumed in three hours. I was certainly going to accomplish one of them, but somebody decided to shit on my parade. I had just departed work and I was still reeling from the euphoric excitement of the zonk.
20 MINUTES DOWN THE ROAD
RING. RING. RING.
OP: Hello.
Unknown: Sergeant First Class OP?
OP: Yeah.
Unknown: This is BLANK at Battalion Staff Duty. (Giggling) I am calling to inform you that you need to go to the hospital.
OP: Why?
Staff Duty: (Trying to maintain composure, but laughing hysterically) Sergeant Gary broke his dick.
FUCKING CLICK
I didn't have time for bullshit now. I needed to get my head right. I was about to play a fairly challenging golf course. The balls I hit are nearly $5.00 bucks a piece. I don't need random assholes fucking with my chi right now. The Immigrant Song by Led Zepplin was on the radio. I crank that shit up and go back to speeding down the highway.
RING. RING. RING.
OP: Hello
Unknown Caller: Sergeant First Class OP?
OP: Yes?
Unknown Caller: This is DIFFERENT PERSON at Battalion Staff Duty
OP: Yes?
Battalion Staff Duty: Is Sergeant Gary LAST NAME your Soldier?
OP: Yes. Why?
Battalion Staff Duty: I need you to go to ARMY HOSPITAL now.
OP: Why?
Battalion Staff Duty: (Ungodly amounts of laughing): He broke his dick.
OP: Really? How?
Battalion Staff Duty: (Still not composed) I don't know Sergeant. (Laughing) I was just told he broke his dick.
OP: I don't know who put you up to this. Frankly, I don't care. I can tell you that you will be sucking my dick sideways if you call about this again.
CLICK
Dear Reader, I don't have time for this shit. Cooking and golfing are the only two things that bring me down to orbit. I merely don't have time to deal with a repetitive prank call. Somebody was clearly fucking with me, and the joke was getting stale. My tee time and the peace and calm golfing provides me was my only worry in the world. Then I see a familiar number calling yet again.
RING. RING. RING.
OP: Listen fuck-head. If you call me again, I am going to turn my car around, drive back to Battalion Headquarters and smoke (Physical torture of sorts) you until I FUCKING VOMIT.
Staff Duty: (Or so I thought) (Laughing) Hey OP Nickname. It's Sergeant Major. Fuck-head.
OP: Apologies Sergeant Major. What can I do for you?
CSM: I need you to go to the hospital, and then give me an update.
OP: An update for what?
CSM: Sergeant Gary. He evidently broke his dick. (Laughing)
OP: You're serious?
CSM: (Laughing hysterically) I had the same reaction, but evidently this is true.
OP: Roger Sergeant Major. Heading to MILITARY HOSPITAL NAME now.
CLICK
Dear Reader, I was no longer pissed. I was now excited. I had exciting visions about what a broken dick would look like. It was glorious. I tried to maintain my composure. I didn't want my anticipation to be spoiled. I could not help it though. Visions of a broken cock were dancing in my mind. I arrived at the hospital in the early afternoon.
Brokedick! That was my tidbit of knowledge to go on. How am I going to explain this to receptionist? I figure I might as well be honest. I could easily ask the receptionist if Sergeant Gary was there, but asking, "Is there a brokedick Solider here?" was too good to pass up.
Reception: Hello! How can I help you?
OP: I was told I have a Soldier here.
Reception: Okay. Last name?
OP: Gary. I was told he (Looks left. Looks right. Then whisper.) broke his dick. That he is now a brokedick!
Reception: (Laughing) THAT GUY! Oh dear god in heaven. I feel so bad for him. Sir, I think it is better if you just go back, and get an update from the doctor himself.
I walk through the doors of the Emergency Room, and to the centrally located desk. There are many rooms and I was not certain which one contained my Solider, and his broken dick.
OP: Excuse me. I was told my Soldier is back here, and I am trying to find him.
Nurse: Last name of the Soldier?
OP: I assume he is the only one here with a broken dick!
Nurse: (Laughing) Oh my god. I know, I shouldn't be laughing. I just can't help. Just when you think you have seen everything, this happens. He is in room number two.
I walk in the room, but I cannot see Gary. There is a crowd of future Physician Assistants and Nurse Practitioners in training from a local university. They are doing their clinical training, and Gary, and his penis were evidently a spectacle. I weasel my way through the crowd and arrive in front of Gary. Gary was seated in a chair, and an embarrassing smile came to his face when we made eye contact.
OP: Gary. I was told you actually broke your penis.
(The room erupts in laughter.)
Gary: Please don't make me laugh Sergeant. It hurts.
OP: I'm sorry. Gary?
Gary: Yes Sergeant?
OP: What's the worst part about eating vegetables?
Gary: I don't know?
OP: Putting them back in the wheelchair when you are done!
Gary is now wincing in pain. (I did feel bad.) Now is the moment of truth. I am about to ask to see Gary's penis. I hope it is as fantastic as I envisioned on my ride to the hospital. I am praying that Gary delivers. Please don't let me down with a run-of-the-mill broken penis. I wanted to be awestruck. This had better be the holy grail of broken dicks.
OP: Gary. Remove the towel and show me the family jewels.
Gary slowly removes the towel and gradually exposes what I was anxiously awaiting to see. My god it was glorious!
OP: HOLY FUCK. HO-LEE FUCK. THAT. IS. FUCKING. AWESOME. Your dick literally took a left turn.
Gary is doing anything he can to not laugh which is understandable. The visions of broken penis' I had in my head during my trip to the hospital paled in comparison to what I was actually seeing with my eyes. I have a rather creative imagination and a large fictionary of words, but neither of these traits allow me to appropriately articulate what I was seeing. It was, simply, perfect. I was proud.
OP: Gary. You mind if I get photographic proof of this?
Gary: You want to take a picture?
OP: Want? NO. I NEED to.
The students in the room were in shock. I understand my request may not be typical or deemed appropriate by normal civilian standards. I am not a civilian, and I am anything but normal. First, I would need this as evidence. No Soldier in their right mind is going to take me serious when I say my Soldier actually broke his dick. Second, and more importantly, I need this so I could frame it, hang it in the office, and cherish it for years to come.
FLASH-CLICK.
OP: Hold it up! Yea, just like that. Keep that pose. Say cheese!
FLASH-CLICK
Picture time was interrupted though. The urologist introduced himself, and was just as amazed as I was. Like he had just captured a rainbow colored unicorn that speaks English, and shits four-day passes (Extended Weekends). The urologist hands were full. No, really. He was examining Gary's blood engorged beef missile.
Urologist: You are going to need emergency surgery. When is the last time you urinated?
Gary: This morning.
Urologist: Are you able to urinate now?
Gary: No. That is why it hurts so bad.
Urologist: That's not good, and I fear that you fractured your urethra.
Then he asked the question I was dying to hear an answer to.
Urologist: How the hell did this happen?
Fuck yes!
OP: Yes Gary. Do tell us. All twenty of us are dying to hear how you pulled this off. Please do not spare any details. I've got all day brother.
Gary: After the zonk, I went back to my room. It was still early so I just went back to bed. I wrapped myself up in my woobie (Army poncho linelife saver), set my alarm, and went to sleep. When my alarm went off I was reaching for it and then slid off my bed. I tried to catch myself. When I stretched my hands out the woobie pulled my dick down. I had piss-boner Sergeant, and I landed directly on it. It made a popping sound and I knew I was in trouble.
OP: That's amazing. You should seriously think about refining that war story though.
I don't know why I was so happy, but I was. Gary was rushed to surgery immediately. We were one dick down, but I wasn't going to leave him alone at the hospital. I needed to wait, I wanted to wait. I was going to be the smiling face Gary saw after surgery. Why? I could babble about being a good leader and whatnot, but I had a dire need to see that Franken-Penis after surgery. It was also just as glorious as I imagined it would look. It was a gnarled mess of stitches and regret. Gary was high as a kite and happy about finally being able to relieve himself. His man meat was whole again!
As expected, virtually nobody in the Chain of Command believed this could actually happen. I had photographic proof though. I can't recall a single person saying no when asked, "Wanna see the picture?" Gary had blessed us with the precious gift of laughter. The urologist diagnosed it as a "penile fracture" and I won't say his assessment was wrong, but we all know it was really a brokedick!
I will toss this out before it is asked. Yes! I still have a picture of it. Some memories are too good to erase. Lastly, No, I won't send it to you! Simply Google "Penile Fracture" and proceed to the pictures. Find the worst looking one and pretend you are looking at Gary's manhood. If you prefer to the Franken-Penis, then imagine the image with stitches. Lots and lots of stitches.
Cheers!

EDIT: Changed me to him. You don't fucking care though.

Live Stream 1PM PST! Kitti's Cuties Challenge!

Breakout candidates for 2020 – Defense edition

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I started this exercise of choosing second- and third-year players in the NFL I expect to take the next step in their development, based on being in a better situation due schematic changes, the respective team not re-signing certain veterans and allowing their young guys to play a bigger role or just my evaluation of them coming out of college.
Once again, my criteria was – they were not allowed to have a Pro Bowl so far, reached a major statistical milestone (1000 yard season, double-digit sacks, etc.) or are just looked at generally as one of the better players at their position already. I didn’t include guys that made my list already last year (Kemoko Turay, Justin Reid, etc.) or haven’t seen the field at all yet (Jonah Williams, Hakeem Butler, etc.). Across my two articles on these breakout players, you will only find one top ten pick, since I believe those are obvious choices anyway, if those guys just haven’t been healthy or whatever it may be.
In this version, we are looking at eight more defensive players ready to break out in 2020 after talking about offense last week already:

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Ifeadi Odenigbo

When I did these write-ups, I actually realized later on that Odenigbo was originally drafted in 2017 in the seventh round by the Vikings, but he only made the practice squad that year and was later claimed and waived by the Cardinals and Browns respectively. So since he finally made an active roster in 2018 and that’s when he finally saw the field, I thought he still qualifies. With all those guys Minnesota has had on the D-line in recent years, it was a challenge for Odenigbo to get their coaches to believe in him, having only played in one game for Arizona before last season. However, he was on the field more and more towards the end of this past year and with little investment in the draft into the front, the Vikings are betting on him to continue to develop, similar to what happened with Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter. Odenigbo recorded seven sacks and tackles for loss respectively, while adding another 18 pressures to the mix. He also forced a fumble and returned another one for a long touchdown against the Chargers, while he was actually called down on another scoop-and-score, where he originally got the trifecta (strip sack, fumble recovery and return TD). That is much more impressive putting it into context, as he played just a third of the defensive snaps. Now with Everson Griffen off the roster (unless he somehow decides to re-sign with the Vikes, Odenigbo is almost a shoe-in for that second defensive end spot in the starting lineup.
Number 95 was mostly used in passing situations, especially early on, as three quarters of the snaps he played came on pass-rushing downs, and Mike Zimmer used his inside-out flexibility on different sub-packages. Odenigbo was asked to line up anywhere from pretty much 2i in sort of a track stance pointed inside to a wide nine alignment. His favorite (and best) move at this point is the dip and rip, but he also flashes a nice up-and-under combined with a high swim move. However, he also has a lot of power behind those pads, as he set up one of his teammates as the initial slanter versus Detroit and just flattened a guy I talked about in my offensive edition of this breakdown last week already in Frank Ragnow. In addition to that, I think the Vikings DE already shows good timing and execution on twists, freeing himself up by using teammates appropriately. As he seems to be transitioning to a starting role, the biggest question now is – How much improvement can he show as a run-defender? He displays very good pursuit coming unblocked from the backside, but at the point of attack he has some issues holding his ground at times, due to not always playing half the man and getting drawn in and allowing cutback lanes. In the pass game, Odenigbo needs to work on being more successful on secondary maneuvers and not give away opportunities if that initial rush stalls.

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Marcus Davenport

Leading up to the 2018 NFL draft, Bradley Chubb was considered the clear-cut number one edge rusher coming out of N.C. State and after him most people said there was a huge drop-off. The Saints however shocked everybody by trading up to the 14th overall pick – not for a quarterback, but rather an outside linebacker from UTSA. While there isn’t a lot of buzz around Davenport entering year three of his pro career, I can promise that New Orleans did not spend their 2018 and ’19 first-round picks on a player they didn’t believe in. I was very surprised at the time of selection, because I thought they were looking for a more immediate-impact type of player with Drew Brees arriving in his 40s and the team coming off a 13-3 record, but there was never any question about the talent this kid presented. Davenport has missed three games in each of his first two years in the league and “only” put up 10.5 sacks, but he went from 28 QB pressures as a rookie to 50 last season. He might have been even better against the run, helping the Saints finish as the fourth-best rush defense at 91.3 yards allowed per game. So this is kind of a case for the improvement he has already made and I think the coaches in New Orleans already looked at 2019 as his breakout season, but among more casual fans, I believe Davenport will move his name into more of the conversation as one of the better young edge rushers this year.
I personally had the young phenom as my 13th overall prospect coming out of San Antonio. When you put on his tape in college, that combination of explosiveness, power and closing burst really stood out. He already flashed the ability to string his hand together to dominate as a pass-rusher, but he needed to do it more consistently, and he showed the shock in his hands to own the point of attack, if he played with better extension. Those to me were certainly coachable areas and with the situation he was in, I thought he could produce in year two or three. Well, we have arrived at his third season and I believe he is ready to roll. I don’t think there’s much to critique as a run-defender about Davenport. He may still be a tick late recognizing some schemes, but when he extends those arms and drops the anchor, you won’t see much movement and he just owns tight-ends. In the pass game, I do believe he needs to broaden his repertoire a little and rush under a little more control, but he has clearly shown signs of becoming a difference-maker in that area as well. He has burst to win around the edge if he times his swipes up correctly, but also the immense power to bull-rush big offensive tackles back right into the quarterback’s lap. If he just learns to convert speed to power a little better and works on finishing that under-and-under he flashes with a follow-through chop, he could be scary. With third-round pick Zack Baun probably rushing outside on sub-packages, it will enable the Saints to move this guy and Cam Jordan more inside and create mismatches that way.

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Jeffery Simmons

Simmons was the 19th overall pick for Tennessee last year. In his debut game he had three pressures on eleven pass-rushing snaps. The rest of the season wasn’t as promising, but considering I didn’t expect him to suit up at all in 2019 after tearing his ACL in pre-draft workouts, the fact he did collect valuable on-field experience, playing less than 40 percent of the defensive snaps just once from that point on, only helps him more. Purely based off his tape, I had Simmons as my IDL3, behind only Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver (both top five prospects for me) and ahead of the two Clemson standouts (Christian Wilkins and Dexter Williams). I even said without the injury he would have been at least around the top ten when I put out my big board a few days ahead of last year’s draft. In limited playing time as a rookie, he recorded 32 tackles, four of them for loss and two sacks. Simmons was an immovable object at Mississippi State and looked to be the same among grown men. I went back and watched the Raiders game in week 14, who have some maulers in the run game and you saw guys almost bounce off the rookie as if he was a brick wall. More importantly, they doubled him on pretty much every single snap he was on the field, probably because of what they had already seen on tape.
This guy has some shock in his hands, the ability to look through the blocker on zone-runs and then get back to the gap behind him as the running back decides to cut up into it. He didn’t look as mobile working his way down the line laterally as I thought he did in college and he will have to do a better job working across the face of some blockers, rather than allowing them to wall him off at times. You see him just be a split-second late of actually stopping the ball-carrier rather than allowing him to stumble forward or barely miss altogether. If he gets back to his collegiate form, he can be an elite run-stopper. Having him out there will allow the Titans to run primarily sub-packages with Harold Landry and now Vic Beasley on the edges. The area he still needs to prove himself at is getting after the quarterback. Simmons is very straight-forward as a pass-rusher and didn’t show a lot of finesse to win in that area, getting stuck with stalemates for the most part if he couldn’t drive his guy backwards initially. He flashed a few quick wins on reps with the arm-over, but he has to get off the ball with more of a plan. I believe his ability to shoot upfield, the unbelievable power and just that disruptive style of play will show up big time in his first year at full strength.

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Ed Oliver

This young man was my fourth overall prospect in last year’s draft behind only Quinnen Williams, Nick Bosa and Josh Allen (the edge rusher). Oliver was an uber-talented, explosive athlete coming out Houston, who I think is still learning the game to some degree. He came in as a freshman with the Cougars and immediately dominated, recording 22 tackles for loss and being named First Team All-American – an honor he would repeat his two other years there as well. While it was obviously a transition from the AAC, where he was just so superior to everybody else physically, compared to lining up against professionals every single week, I thought he started flashing more and more as his rookie season progressed. And while Jordan Phillips just put up double-digit sacks for Buffalo and got a big deal from the Cardinals in the process, I thought Oliver was already the Bills’ best interior pass rusher in December. Overall he recorded five sacks and TFLs each to go with 31 pressures on 374 pass-rushing snaps. That ratio may not be up there with some of the league’s best, but he definitely showed sparks on winning in that area and he finished up playing 53.7 percent of the snaps on defense overall, as part of a deep rotation.
Coming out of Houston a year ago, it was clear Oliver needed some time to adjust to the NFL, after he was playing at the nose mostly in college and not having to stay true to his run fits all the time. While there are still moments where his pad-level gets too high and I feel like he is a tick late recognizing the run scheme, at 287 pounds his anchor is excellent and he has the ability to chase down plays laterally. In the pass game his natural power and quickness present problems for the opposition. What really stands out as well is he flexibility he possesses, as can be knocked from the side and somehow regain his balance to keep going and even if he ends up outside his pass-rush lane, he just continues to work. Something Oliver does really well already, which will give him a couple of “easy” sacks in 2020 is set up his loops to the outside on a twist, staying tight and aiming at the outside shoulder of the guard before pivoting outside suddenly. As a rookie, he had his issues going up against the better-schooled guards in the league, especially trying to beat the Steelers’ Ramon Foster and David DeCastro, who landed their hands inside his chest early and Oliver couldn’t gain an advantage. If he can work on being a little more pro-active and rushes the passer with more of a plan overall, I think he could be a Pro Bowler in year two.

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T.J. Edwards

A four-year starter at Wisconsin, Edwards recorded 366 tackles over the course of his career and made several impact plays for the Badgers. Unfortunately he could not participate in any on-field drills at the 2019 NFL combine due to a banged up ankle and if you can trust his pro day results, his athleticism is still below-average. Labelled as a classic college linebacker with limitations to translate his game to the next level, Edwards ultimately went undrafted and signed with the Eagles. As a rookie, he mostly made an impact on special teams, with nine combined tackles on punt and kickoff coverage. He only played 11 percent of the defensive snaps, but when he was on the field, he earned close to an elite grade by Pro Football Focus and got involved on another 21 tackles. When you divide those 122 snaps by the amount of tackles he recorded, that actually gives him the highest tackle rate of any player at the position with at least 100 snaps played. In his first year under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, he was mainly utilized on early downs to stop the run, as he was on the field for 89 run downs compared to only 33 pass plays.
That is somewhat understandable, since you just have to love his oldschool mind-set in the frame of a well-built, strong guy. Edwards aggressively shoots downhill on inside runs and drops the shoulder on lead-blockers trying to move him out of there, actually stonewalling some of those guys and creating traffic jams that way. At the same time, he shows enough patience with combo-blocks in front of him to not just give away free cutback lanes by overrunning plays, keeping bouncy feet as he deciphers what he sees in the backfield. He offers a sturdy base to absorb the contact by offensive linemen climbing up to him and keeps them at extension, while also showing the mobility to mirror pullers and beat them to the spot. Then he really brings some thump at initial contact on tackles to stop the forward momentum and missed only one attempt on the year (on special teams). It is kind of funny how Edwards was labelled a pure run-stopper because of some athletic limitations, when he actually intercepted ten passes and broke up another 15, while adding eight sacks throughout his career at Wisconsin. He may never be a candidate to shadow more dynamic backs or tight-ends one-on-one, but his feel in zone and ability to get involved as a blitzer should keep him on the field for third downs more. Edwards is also quick to recognize play-action and turn his head for potential crossers behind him before swiveling back towards the quarterback. I believe Edwards will be an excellent replacement for Zach Brown at MIKE, who left in free agency. There are some questions about linebacker trio with Duke Riley and Nathan Gerry, Jatavis Brown or Davion Taylor, but Edwards should be a fixture in the middle on first and second down at least.

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Byron Murphy

Murphy was my number one corner heading into the 2019 draft ahead of guys like Greedy Williams and DeAndre Baker and he was the first pick in round two. While he started all 16 games for Arizona and missed less than 30 snaps the entire season, I think barely anybody really knows about or watched this guy play for the Cardinals as rookie. There were definitely some learning experiences early on and if you look at the total yards and touchdowns allowed, it’s not a beautiful sight and 78 total tackles for any corner aren’t a great sign either. However, a lot of that had to do with the 105 targets coming his way (fourth-most by any player in the league) due to lining up on the opposite side of Patrick Peterson and the fact he was part of the 31st-ranked pass defense. I thought he improved every single week and he actually put up better marks in coverage than his running mate Peterson, despite being targeted at a much higher rate – 7.7 compared to 9.3 yards allowed per target. Murphy also intercepted one pass and broke up another ten.
What I loved about Murphy coming out of Washington last year was his innate feel in zone coverage with an outstanding ability to click-and-close and be a play-maker. He can flip his hips with ease and has that gliding speed to stay on top of routes, rarely allowing opponents to detach from him late. In the run game, Murphy does not shy away from getting involved as a tackler, arriving low and up-ending bigger ball-carriers routinely. You see him fill the D-gap or squeeze plays from the outside on several occasions. He also won’t allow bigger receivers to bully him as blockers, keeping them away from his frame and leveraging the ball accordingly. The rookie mostly played in the slot versus 11 personnel once Patrick Peterson returned in week seven last season and he was utilized as a blitzer off the edge a few times, where he chased running backs down from behind or got into the face of the opposing quarterback. He was heavily exhausted when he was moved in the slot and had to follow receivers back-and-forth across the formation on motions at times. The one thing Murphy really struggled with as a rookie was playing with his back towards the quarterback on slot fades and such as, where receivers could use subtle push-offs and win with their frame, as he almost purely face-guarded them and didn’t even try to snap his head around. The Cardinals have added a super-rangy player is Isaiah Simmons and beef up front to stop the run on early downs, in order to set up third-and-long situations. Allowing the now second-year player to focus more on his coverage and now with veteran Robert Alford being brought in as another outside corner, I see Murphy taking the next step in his developing. By the way, re-watching those Cardinals tapes – Budda Baker is just a freaking baller.

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Rock Ya-Sin

At the start of last year’s draft process, Ya-Sin wasn’t a huge name since he had only played one year at the FBS level for Temple. However, after he and now-49ers receiver Deebo Samuel went back and forth at the Senior Bowl, I started falling love with this guy and so did the scouting community. As a rookie with the Colts, wearing number 34 as the spot he was selected at, he started 13 of 15 games and played at least 93 percent of the snaps in ten of them. Ya-Sin was targeted on 15.2 percent of pass plays and he had some struggles, but he also improved a lot from the first to the second half of his debut campaign. There was one really rough showing versus one of the NFL’s young star receivers in Courtland Sutton, when he was penalized five times and was responsible for 75 receiving yards. However, the rest of the season he was called for defensive holding three times and for pass interference just once (40 total yards). That’s not too bad for a rookie who likes to get into the face of receivers and whose play-style out of college could be described as “grabby”. Over the final eight weeks, Ya-Sin held opposing QBs to a passer rating of just 75.8 and didn’t allow any touchdowns (after being responsible for two up to that point), while coming up with his first career pick.
Ya-Sin can be described is a very sticky, quick-footed corner. As a rookie, he primarily played outside and faced some tough matchups, while even being asked to travel with some of the game’s elite, such as Michael Thomas. While I’m not saying that always went great, his competitiveness is off the charts and I think he has all the tools to develop into an excellent cover-corner. Ya-Sin was rarely just caught out of position. It was more about struggling to find the ball down the field and panicking a little when he did overcommit initially. The more experience he had, the more comfortable he felt turning his head and making a play on the ball. I still love his competitiveness, rapid feet at the line, ability to read the hips of the receiver and use his length to get his hands on the ball. He had a few textbook reps, staying in phase with the receiver from press alignmenz on hitch or curl routes and knocking the pass down coming out of the break. I thought playing in year one, he was also a pretty good edge-setter in the run game and he didn’t just wait for the ball-carrier to cut back inside to stay clean. You saw him fight off blocks and try to cut down the guy with the ball. Now with Pierre Desir gone in free agency, I expect Ya-Sin to step into the spotlight as Indy’s true CB1. The Colts also brought in veteran Xavier Rhoades, who I thought looked broken down last season, but will help this kid grow mentally as well.

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Nasir Adderley

My top-rated safety from a year ago, I thought Adderley was a perfect match with Derwin James on the Chargers, because he has that range for a true deep middle safety to allow Derwin to roam and play more around the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately he had hamstring issues before even being drafted, which forced him to miss mandatory minicamp and most of training camp. He only appeared in one preseason game and then played 10 defensive snaps across four regular season games, making two pretty meaningless tackles, before the Chargers placed him on injured reserve. So with that little experience, Adderley barely meets my criteria, but he was active for four games and I want to grab the opportunity to talk about one of my favorites in last year’s draft. Coming out of Delaware, he filled the alley in the run game with the mind-set of a linebacker, while also showing the ability to cover ground to bail out his team-mates on the back-end. When the ball is completed in front of him, he punishes receivers and when it gets into his hand, he shows off his background as a kick returner, where we had one of the sickest plays I have ever seen, running an opponent over, staring him down and proceeding to go the end-zone.
Outside of some questions about the level of competition in the FCS and how much different he moved different than anybody else, I loved everything about his game. The one time we did actually see him play with pros – week four of the preseason – Adderley made one interception and deflected another three passes, while one of them should have been another pick, with a receiver knocking the ball out of his hands late, and he got both hands on another ball down the seams to deny a touchdown. You could see him show up outside the numbers against go-routes and cut in front of deep in-breaking routes, which led to the one INT he actually made. In addition to that, you saw him try to go underneath offensive linemen and be willing to take on some contact on screen plays, instead of staying back and avoiding collisions, getting involved late on scrums or jumping on the back of a receiver trying to catch the ball at the sideline. Now with Chris Harris added to the mix, Casey Hayward on the opposite side and Desmond King in the slot, with the guys they have up front to get after the passer, plus Derwin possibly being sent as a blitzer with his stupid closing burst, Adderley has the ability to gamble and make plays. Plus he gives them somebody who plays with an attitude, which I really appreciated going back to my evaluations coming out of college. Before he can become an impact player, he first needs to beat out Rayshawn Jenkins, but I’d be shocked if he wasn’t on the field for the majority of snaps.

Notable other names:

Oshane Ximines
Rashan Gary
Jerry Tillery
Mack Wilson & Sione Takitaki
Rashad Fenton
Mike Hughes
Darnell Savage
Tracy Walker

If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/03/breakout-candidates-for-2020-offense-edition/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KPNzxK-V_c

Bets and Bravery: Chapter 991!

Start the final countdown; we're now only 10 chapters away from the BIG 1000! It's been a long ride coming, and I'm excited to chug along to the finish with you all toward One Piece's biggest milestone and ~~more importantly~~ a very special edition of Bets and Bravery! Here's to it!
In other news, since the last B&B, we've had the Strawhats reunite, the Scabbards move to the roof, Neko and Inu go Sulong, Big Mom has taken another L, Sanji vs King ~~give it to us for real, Oda, you coward~~ and Drake was finally exposed as a traitor among the Tobi Roppo! Immediately following Hawkins' eerie premonition, Drake pledges his allegiance to the Strawhat Alliance for the moment! It's only a matter of time now!

Links

Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls, and everybody in between, welcome back to...

Bets and Bravery!

Welcome one, welcome all, we're glad to have you! If you're new to Bets and Bravery, B&B is a weekly thread on this subreddit where users bet with fake currency, the Beli from in-universe, on what they think will happen in each week's chapter in a series of bets made by yours truly. I keep track of everyone's money in a giant Google Sheet, which is available in the links above. So, if you're new, enjoy your time! But, if you're a regular on this thread, we're glad to see you back at OnePiece's unofficial official pasttime!
I hope you've all had a good week so far with whatever's been happening in your lives. If you haven't had such a good week so far, I'm wishing the best for you and hope I can brighten your day even a little bit with this post.
Before we get started, let's refresh your memory of last chapter to get you back on betting track!

Last Time on One Piece

So, let's talk about that chapter.
Luckily freed from Big Mom's Ikoku Sovereignty, Tobi Roppo LVP Sasaki swears revenge on Denjiro for betraying him and tying him up. Moving to Onigashima's roof, Inuarashi and Nekomamushi have to step in after Jack and his troops manage to fend off the minks, providing Oda another opportunity to blueball us with their Sulong transformation. While Drake and Hawkins discuss betraying Kaido, King and Queen assemble the Tobi Roppo, whose stellar 0-2 record precedes them, to stop the Alliance from reaching Kaido. Reminiscent of their fight with Oars in Thriller Bark, the Strawhats work in tandem to easily overcome the Beasts Pirates' Numbers, with a Boundman Luffy leading the charge. But back in the castle, Drake, who was lured by Who's Who, is beaten senseless by Queen in an attempt to get him to talk about freeing Law. Despite knowing his proficiency for allowing people to escape, Queen, Hawkins, and Who's Who allow Drake to free himself from his predicament by committing domestic terrorism and jumping out the window. With only one place to go other than down due to gravity, Drake announces to a nearby Luffy his intention to join their side for the battle, stunning everyone so much that Oda gave them a week's break to process this new development.
With that out of the way, let's get right into the real meat of the thread...

Chapter 991 Betting

The Bets of the Week

Bet 405

Let's go back to the beginning of the chapter for this edition's first bet: the battle on Onigashima's roof. With a plethora of Sulong minks battling the Beasts Pirates and All-Star Jack, it'll be a scene to watch for in the anime. However, with the defeat of some of the mink elites, Kin'emon prepares to draw his sword for combat only to be stopped by none other than Inuarashi and Nekomamushi. As many predicted as far back as Zou, it would only be fitting that, come a full moon, the mink rulers get to avenge their fallen kingdom by fighting Jack in their Sulong forms.
However, Jack is a formidable opponent. Wielding the Ancient Zoan Mammoth-Mammoth Fruit, most probably at an awakened level, and backed by plenty of allies himself, it's tough to say for sure who will come out on top. However, they're not the only combatants on Onigashima's roof, as the rest of Oden's Scabbards and the man himself ~~whatever Number that giant was!!~~ Kaido, are also present. Jack is not the main goal here, although getting revenge is certainly a nice bonus, avenging Oden by killing ~~Orochi~~ Kaido is. And despite being Wano's best samurai, the Akazaya Nine certainly have an uphill battle facing them. Dear audience, what will be the outcome of the battle on Onigashima's roof?

A. The Scabbards defeat Jack only to then fall to Kaido! Odds 1:2
B. The Scabbards are defeated without beating either Jack or Kaido! Odds 1:4
C. The Scabbards manage to defeat both Jack and Kaido! Odds 1:30
D. The battle is interrupted before any major victory occurs! Odds 1:4
E. One or both groups escape the arena before any major victory occurs! Odds 1:6

Bet 406

Continuing on with Onigashima's roof, let's discuss a third group attempting to reach the position: the Strawhats! After reuniting for the first time properly for battle in what seems like forever during Chapter 989, they burst into action in 990 with their sights set on Kaido. However, despite being composed of 10 capable fighters, plenty of Zoan-wielding obstacles stand in their way: the Tobi Roppo, Hawkins, King, and Queen. Coming together with the sole purpose of preventing the Strawhats' advance toward Kaido, they've been ordered to stop them from reaching Onigashima's roof.
Plenty of highly-anticipated bouts could start in the coming chapters: Sanji and/or Zoro vs King, Nami and Robin vs Ulti and Black Maria, Brook vs his second Yonkou, Usopp vs everyone at the same time, you know what I mean. None of these opponents are slackers, and for anyone other than Luffy, these could easily be the Strawhats' biggest combat challenge yet in the New World. But, will they be enough to truly stop the phenomenon that is Shonen Protagonist Plot Armor? Will Luffy really not get to face Kaido? Will Nami ever forgive Zeus? Dear audience, will the Strawhats manage to reach Onigashima's roof?
Note: Only one Strawhat has to reach the roof for them to have succeeded.

A. The Strawhats will manage to reach Onigashima's roof in time to provide the Scabbards backup! Odds 1:3
B. The Strawhats will manage to reach Onigashima's roof, but will arrive after the battle has ended there! Odds 1:2
C. The Strawhats will be unable to reach Onigashima's roof! Odds 1:6

Bet 407

Basil Hawkins, proprietor of probability, card dealer of chance, magician of magic, some other alliterative nickname, you all know who he is. Probably most famous for his fortune telling abilities, Hawkins has a mysterious connection with the occult not really seen anywhere else in One Piece. Most notable among his readings is that of a person's chance of survival, which he's used during his confrontation with Kizaru on Sabaody and similarly to discover that Luffy's never reaches 0%.
During Chapter 990, discussing with X Drake before luring him to Queen for interrogation about freeing Law, Hawkins managed to eke out a survival reading of a measly 1%. Drake, like anyone would be, expresses his sympathy for the poor soul. But, in classic Oda fashion, we're never explicitly told just whose chance of survival Hawkins foretold, ~~allowing me to milk this question for a third bet this week!~~ providing us this wonderful opportunity to speculate on who is going to 99% die. Dear audience, who, according to Hawkins' reading, only has a 1% chance of survival?

A. Luffy! Odds 1:2
B. Kaido! Odds 1:4
C. Drake! Odds 1:3
D. Hawkins himself! Odds 1:5
E. Another member of the Strawhat Allaince! Odds 1:7
F. Someone else entirely! Odds 1:5

Bet 408

This bet is where you can bet how many pages Chapter 991 will feature!
Note: Shounen Jump covers, fan art pages, or translator note pages from early scans or the official release are not counted here. Double page spreads are counted as two separate pages. Color pages and color spreads are counted. Cover story serials and fan-requested cover pages are counted.

A. 16 or less pages! Odds 1:15
B. 17 pages! Odds 1:1.3
C. 18 or more pages! Odds 1:6

Bet 409

Our final bet this week is about the main focus of this week's chapter! The chapter may cover multiple storylines, in which case, the correct answer will be whichever storyline the chapter gave the most attention to in terms of pages or panels, should it get that close!

A. The Strawhats' attempt to reach Onigashima's roof! Odds 1:2
B. The Scabbards vs Jack and Kaido! Odds 1:3
C. Other storylines, such as Big Mom, Marco and Perospero, Yamato and Momonosuke, or something else outside of Wano! Odds 1:5

Weekly Mini-Game

Honoring our newest recruit to the Alliance, this week's mini-game will focus on the former regular Marine turned pirate but secretly secret service Marine turned Tobi Roppo turned Strawhat Ally: X Drake! Dear audience, I want you to guess in how many panels the Worst Generation's X Drake will appear throughout Chapter 991!

Criteria for WMG: X Drake appears in a panel in Chapter 991.
Note: Drake must appear physically for a panel to count toward the total. Panels that only mention Drake by name, a recognizable epithet, or show them in a thought bubble do not count toward the total. Panels that make up scene transitions are subject to these same rules and are counted separately.

Guess 100% correctly on this, and you'll receive a whopping 1,500,000 Beli! If nobody guesses correctly, the closest answer receives 750,000 Beli! If multiple people guess correctly or are evenly close to the correct answer, the bounty is evenly split among them to the nearest 1,000 Beli!

End of Chapter 991 Betting

And with that, we've come to the end of another exciting week of Betting and Bravery! I hope you enjoyed what we had this week, as I enjoyed making B&B for you!
Now, please listen to the following tutorial on how to play:

u/MADKITTIEZ!! For reasons I cannot say now, I am an army of one!! Please let me bet on your side!!
5M on 405A!
5M on 406B!
10M on 407A!
1M on 408B!
2M on 409A!
Diez panels for X Drake!

Notes and Reminders

Are you new to Bets and Bravery? If so, welcome, we're always glad to see newcomers! As a first login bonus, you'll get to start with 1,000,000 Beli to bet with however you want!
Are all your bets ending up missing the mark? Have your bets and Beli ended up frozen and left you penniless? Worry not, just for showing up each week you get 10,000 Beli for free which you can jump right back into the betting with!
Please bet in multiples of 1,000 Beli!
Please bet on only one outcome (A, B, C, etc.) per bet (170, 171, 172, etc.)!
Place all bets before spoilers drop for the chapter, cheating is a big no-no!
Have any questions, comments, concerns, or ideas for future bets? Send me a message and I'll get right back to you!

Thanks for Participating!

Thanks to everyone out there who dropped by to read this thread, whether all the way through, just skimming, or just dropping by to see what this thread was. I'm truly grateful you all come by and support my work here as much as you do, so thank you! I hope I can keep living up to your expectations as host!
I wish you all good luck on this week's bets, and I will see you all back later this week after the chapter drops and the results thread is out for you all to see how you did! Until next time!
-MADKITTIEZ

Rolan Garros Men's Singles Round 1 Matchup featuring jaguars & potatos

Another tournament another app to download. Goot-bye US Open app. Another week of typing F into google chrome before realizing the site starts with an R. The French are classy. But who was Roland Garros? Was he, a fictitious dragon who ruled over the Alps and the Bay of Biscay and all that lay in between? Or was he a French aviator and pilot during World War I? Over the next two weeks, we’ll get to the bottom of this. I know which way I’m leaning.
PS that is Querrey in the photo if you're on mobile, not me
Djokovic Ymer : Novak’s biggest win at the French Open is having Thiem and Nadal on the opposite side of the draw. A healthy reward for the #1 player in the world, and one that will mean a very wide open draw and a very enjoyable snackathon while he watches the other semifinal. Novak, or Snack Attack as he’s known to his close friends and family, will be hungies for this one after a very odd day of frustration against Carreño Busta at the US Open led to a disqualification. Novak won the Rome event with relative ease and is as close to a frontrunner as someone other than Nadal can be at this event.
Ymer has been steadily improving but is still at the top of the challenger level when it comes to clay. This won’t be close, but it’s good to see Ymer stringing together a few seasons of appearances in the majors. Djokovic in 3.
Berankas Dellien : Ricardas Berankas may be closer than he appears. After a good hardcourt mini-swing, Berankas has been absent from the clay warmups. He’s never really been the best on clay although he plays a solid baseline game, and this mostly because while he’s consistent, he struggles to hit through the court on slower surfaces. Dellien on the other hand, does his best work on clay. He’s been losing matches you’d expect him to have a better chance in and hasn’t had many bright points leading up to the break. With Djokovic in the next round and Berankis on his worst surface with minimal warmup, this is a must-win for Dellien. He’s struggled to find the finish line but he’ll have ample chances here, and his defending is similar to Munar’s in terms of lockdown baselining Dellien in 4 or he is likely headed off the tour.
Galan Norrie : This is a brilliant opportunity for Daniel. He’s been hinting at a big run on clay and overcoming a lot of the gatekeepers of the challenger tour, but a lot of third set losses have plagued him, and while it’s considered a short stretch of tour, the clay events are deep with talent. Norrie has ventured to the South American swing once or twice, with relatively poor results. He can be a frustrating opponents at his peak, but his backhand doesn’t get through the court well and he’s just a bit inconsistent with results. He’ll still be a favorite here because playing in the spotlight in a major is something that takes time to adjust to, but Galan will make it close and could eke out a win since he’s still a developing player. Galan in 5.
Sandgren Hurkacz : Sandgren hasn’t had a terrible time on the dirt this year, qualifying for events the last two weeks and unfortunately running into guys who are simply better than him. Almost beating Caruso is a great step, and a year ago that would make him a bit of a favorite to beat Hurkacz. Those of us who watched his matches with Rublev and Schwartzman saw a different Hurkacz from the inconsistent but promising server that’s been exhausting bettors while losing after winning the first set time and time again. Hurkacz was hitting very clean and generating winners relatively easily, and while his serve left him late against Diego, playing a returner like that in a long match will do that to you.
Sandgren and Hurkacz will both be hitting a heavy ball here and looking to hold behind big serves, but one of them has had higher level success in the past few weeks, and I think Hubert, or “Hubert”, as he’s known down at the ‘ol library, has the better serve and bigger groundstrokes. Hurkacz in 3-4, and please when you look at Hurkacz picture him wearing glasses and looking up from his wooden table anytime someone coughs across the room.
Garin Kohlschreiber : This is a good start for Garin, whose physical state is somewhat dependent on Tsitspas. A finals appearance on Saturday will make for a tough turnaround, but I don’t think he’ll withdraw from a major, and given Kohl’s loss to a super-hampered Fognini last week a little bit of fatigue won’t be too much of an issue. That being said, Garin’s game is largely dependent on physical effort and being a ball machine. I would say it’s split 95% that, and 5% having elegant hair. Kohlschreiber won’t just disappear and if Garin is a ghost of himself, he’ll lose, but that’ll be a big dip in level in a short period of time, and the fatigue I expect to hurt Garin’s run at the French is more of a 3rd-4th round type of struggle. Garin in 4.
Humbert Polmans : Polmans name backwards is Snamlop, and that’s important because it’s now the second thing you know about his clay game. Polmans wears a hunting cap and plays a very energetic and consistent game. In normal circumstances he’d have a puncher’s chance, and the lucky losers in tour events are classic for pulling a number of upsets (like Bublik this week) but this is not the spot. Humbert played great in Hamburg and lost early enough that he’ll have a few days to travel and get ready for RG. Humbert in 3.
Vesely Broady : These two will be very happy to play each other first round. Vesely has only just started to eke out wins on this clay swing and Broady has just qualified for the first time, beating Polmans and Kuhn along the way. These aren’t the type of wins that suggest he’ll beat Vesely, but Vesely’s struggles are the kind of thing that could see lower-tier players reel him in. I expect Broady’s timing to be a bit better than Vesely’s to start as he’s had a few matches on these courts, but Vesely really is a tour level player at the end of the day, so I believe both players will have some difficulty pulling away here. Someone in 5. The Vesely that lost to Vukic in a challenger loses. The Vesely that played a decent match against Humbert wins.
Majchrzak Khachanov : If you got into a car accident with a basket full of the alphabet, you miiiiiiiiight get this combination of letters. Kamil just won a challenger in Prostejov, beating some quality players and Andujar in the finals. Everyone who knows Andujar knows he was raised with jaguars, and wins two titles in a row every year then disappears. Majchrzak interrupting this is a very brave feat, but also one that means this isn’t the one-way traffic that a Khachanov Majchrzak match normal would be. The problem for Kamil has been distancing himself against mid-tier opponents, and that is exactly what Khachanov big hitting and aggressive serving have done. Karen struggled against Lajovic last week, but that’s a puzzle he hasn’t solved yet, and likely won’t impact his performance here. He’s got a better shot at excelling in the big moments, and outlasting Kamil’s steady play. Khachanov in 4-5.
Baustista Agut Gasquet : This is a sleeper of a great match. The way Gasquet moves around the court in between points is deceptive given how well he covers the court, and his game looks a bit more devoted to flair than it is to hitting winners. Still, his results over the past decade have been brilliant and his serving is sneaky good at times. Zero warmup matches leading into this is the polar opposite of RBA’s commitment to getting in hard yards on the surface, and that’ll be a big edge for RBA. Not his best surface (I’ll stop harping on this eventually), but RBA is playing some good ball and Gasquet is half a question mark heading into this week. Playing at home and not sporting any visual injury means Gasquet won’t just disappear, but I think rust will be a factor. RBA in 4-5.
Uchiyama Balasz : Uchiyama is most famous for being the inspiration for that Nas song, but his second claim to fame is being a helluva tennis player. Many bettors had genuine panic attacks in his first round loss to PCB in last month’s US Open, and having that fresh in their minds could lead them astray here. Attila Balasz is one of the pure clay specialists on tour, and plays a very unique style of tennis. Tons of dropshots, a strangely effective but flailing backhand, and an affinity for hitting forehand winners from 10 feet behind the baseline are on display from him, as well as one of the best kick serves you’ll see. Given Uchiyama got the business from Duckworth last week, this should be a W for Balasz, who can trouble the winner of RBA/Gasquet but likely can’t win. Balasz in 3.
Pella Caruso : Pella has allegedly been diagnosed with Morton’s neuroma, which is an inflamed nerve in the metatarsal region of the foot. I’ve dealt with nerve issues in the metatarsals after breaking a toe recently, and it is the strangest thing. It’s nonstop pain, even when you’re sitting down, but you can still train. Your foot feels like it’s on fire, but you can still walk and you know nothing is wrong. I’m not sure what treatment he’s getting for it, but the stop and start aspect of tennis is going to really preclude him from doing much on tour while this is an issue, and I believe that’s what is leading to his subpar results since the restart.
Caruso on the other hand has become a household name lately, and although he’s done better on hardcourt than clay in the restart, this is a winnable match for him. I’m just not sold on Pella’s physical ability, and Caruso has the power to break down what is normally a rock-solid defense. Caruso in 3. Disclaimer : There’s a big tendency amongst gamblers to jump on lines because they think they have some injury info. Just keep in mind, the information the general public has is always less than what the books have. If anything, a question mark about an injury is a good reason to avoid betting on a match at all.
Millman Carreño Busta : For a while I thought Millman had a knack for drawing guys he’d have a real war with, but it’s just his style. He doesn’t serve aces but he has a decent serve. He doesn’t hit winners but he swings for the fences on the forehand. He doesn’t have much of a backhand but he puts it in play in decent spots. It’s just very difficult for Millman to overwhelm anyone, and very difficult for players to create offense against what he offers. PCB didn’t look great against Nadal, but two weeks of rest will have him in good shape to compete here. I do expect him to make a decent run at this event, and this is a good test to see where his game is at after a huge payday in the USO. PCB is a professional, but I don’t put it past him to struggle to find form/motivation for a while. PCB in 4-5.
Struff Tiafoe : This is the first line I’ll mention. Tiafoe comes in at +170 for this match, which is much closer than I’d set it. Tiafoe isn’t really a productive player on clay, and lost to local hero Musetti in a challenger last week. Struff blew up with a big lead in the third against Khachanov, and lost quickly in Rome as well, but he’s had some great clay results, and I expect him to come through very well here. The Tiafoe we saw at the USO may be a repeat appearance, but this would be the best win of his career on the dirt, so the line (especially after his loss to Musetti) makes me wary. Struff in 4.
Altmaier Lopez : Altmeir is a challenger level player with a big claycourt game. He plays pretty exclusively on the dirt, and while Lopez is a great server, he may take an L here. Altmaier came through qualifying fairly easily, and Lopez is a wildcard for his effort level and service efficiency, but I’d rather back a qualifier in-form than a maybe of an offensive veteran on a slow surface. Altmaier in 4.
Harris Popyrin : This is a nice matchup, as both of these guys wouldn’t be expect to make the 2nd round at RG very often. I’ve been big on Popyrin’s game in the past, but Harris has had the better win in recent times on clay, beating Caruso in two straight. This will largely be decided by serves, and in the interest of honesty, I haven’t watched many of their recent matches. Popyrin was better for a time, but that seems to have flipped. Someone with their hat backwards in 4.
Pospisil Berretini : Oddsmakers have set the games total for this at 32, which given Pospisil’s serve is a bit low. Vasek is by no means a great clay player, and Berretini is going to make quick work of this, but I do think Pospisil will keep him on court for at least two hours. Berretini in 3.
Medvedev Fucsovics : Spooky line for this one, with Medvedev (who regularly comes in at -1000 against solid opponents) only a 4 to 1 favorite here. Fucsovics hasn’t played any clay warmups and although Med lost to Humbert it was a side event and Humbert played lights out tennis. I guess the premise we’re going with here is that Medvedev’s style isn’t great on clay, but I think he’ll have a good event here as he was a bit more impatient than usual against Humbert. Medvedev in 4.
Mannarino Ramos-Vinolas : If you like lefties who’ve been on tour forever and never change their game, this is the match for you. Local robot ARV has had a disappointing start to his clay season, courtesy of an unexplainably good Bublik. He’s the type of player who generally needs a bit more time to work the point, and doesn’t go for clean winners very often. A bit like a more defensive version of Delbonis, ARV will have a good chance here to get a win. Mannarino has potential to make this close because ARV hasn’t been winning and that mental state is sometimes a difficult hurdle. He’ll also be playing at home which has historically been a huge boost for French players. It’ll depend largely on the condition of ARV’s game, but it will be difficult given Mannarino’s controlled game and ARV’s defense for either player to pull away. ARV in 5.
Halys Giron : These guys just aren’t that good, but they’re in a great section of the draw. Halys has been hanging around the challenger tour, but hasn’t made a great deal of impact. Giron has had a more impressive stretch of wins on tour, but none of them have come on clay. The crowd will help Halys, and I think he’s a bit more comfortable on clay, but Giron is the better player at the end of the day. Not a lot to separate these two. Giron in 5.
Querrey Rublev : I don’t want you to get the wrong idea about Querrey. It’s easy to say he’s washed up or he doesn’t care or he’s only good on grass and fast hardcourt. What’s difficult to do though is to remember that he did this : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ICHm96chw&ab_channel=TennisWizard
That is all. Rublev might be coming off a title win, and the courts will be slower, but Querrey’s work on this planet is already complete. Rublev in 4. PS an anonymous source has recently informed me that Rublev’s house in Russia is actually structured like a hamster emporium and he wears a cape and refers to himself only as Tubelev. Vetting my source now.
Monteiro Basilashvili : Monteiro is somewhere fancy winning a challenger as we speak. I love this guy’s work ethic and he plays like he’s Nadal’s wild cousin who mountain climbs and just plays tennis when he’s in town. The forehand is big and he’s going against a guy who hasn’t notched a win since he came back to the tour. Commenting on legal issues isn’t great, but Basilashvili is facing some domestic assault charges back in his home country and there’s some notion that this is not great for his mental state. If they were both at their peak Nikoloz wins, but he’s in the doldrums and Monteiro is winning tons of matches. Monteiro in 3.
Lajovic Mager : Another tough draw for Mager. After getting a motivated Dimitrov he goes up against Lajovic who found his chops last week in a major way in Hamburg. Mager can absolutely crush the ball but he needs some times to find these shots, and Lajovic moves his opponents exceptionally well. A few missed opportunities against Tsitsipas have afforded Lajovic a few days of rest, and he should be good to roll through this one. Lajovic in 3-4.
Djere Anderson : This one of my favorite matchups in the first round. Djere is a great claycourter and plays harder than most when he gets in a rhythm, but he’s been struggling to win matches lately. Anderson’s return from injury has been similar to Nishikori’s as far as results, but not style. Nishikori has struggled to keep the ball in the court. Anderson seems to be able to play his normal game in stretches, but is hesitant to do so. It’s like watching a baby deer test it’s legs out. In a 2/3 format I think Anderson might sprint away, but here I like Djere to make this match physical and beat Anderson, who’ll be happy to go into the indoor season where things are a bit easier on the ol deer bits. Djere in 4-5.
Mayot Davidovich Fokina : Mayot is not the worst, but he’s not the best. Rublev vs Fokina is probably the best 2nd round we’re going to see in this event, and barring injury we’ll get a look at it. Fokina’s loss against Lajovic looked bad since Dusan was slumping, but looking at his form the next few rounds it makes sense. It’s like playing Paire on a day where he makes no errors and serves 16 aces. You come off the court like wait, where’s christmas? ADF in 3.
Shapovalov Simon : Shap had some clay wins that he hasn’t in the past. It’s nice to see the slower surface giving him time to really craft some winners. There aren’t many holes in his game, and he seems to only struggle once opponents settle onto his patterns since he tries to hit through the court on so many shots. When you see the guy shifting to where you’re going there’s a tendency to try to add some juice. Simon’s physical struggles aren’t public, but there’s something off about him. Age/fatigue/injury. I don’t know. The backhand is still beautiful and he’s still a great player, but he just can’t win lately, and this is the wrong opponent to be moving poorly against. Shap in 3. PS if you haven’t seen Shap’s rap video yet don’t see it. It’s not to be seen, like a rare butterfly or a peanut butter jelly sandwich your child hid in their closet for some reason 4 years ago.
Johnson Carballes Baena : Another match I feel good about. RCB is the RBA of ARV. His ability to push the pace without really hitting for winners is a quality the best claycourters all possess. Johnson can play some clay, but usually only in the USA event that consists of hardcourt players playing each other. This will be somewhat close as Johnson is decent on serve and RCB retired from his last match. The appeal of a big check at a major is such that people will make the trip even if they’re not at their best, and this one is RCB’s if he’s healthy, but Johnson’s if he isn’t. No way to pick, but I’m pulling for RCB, as he’ll be the better round 2 against Shap.
Martin Sousa : The hits keep coming. Sousa simply can’t win a match. He doesn’t seem to be playing terribly, just dealing with a huge slump. Martin will know how that feels, as he’s been taking first round losses when he finally makes his way into main tour events for a while. That changed at the start of this year though, and Martin has been a difficult out on clay in recent months. That likely will give him an edge here, and the confidence being based in results rather than in coaches puffery is likely to keep him pushing where Sousa will have doubts creeping in. Martin in 5.
Barrere Dimitrov : Barrere looked like he’d be making a big impact on tour this year before the break. There are some winners and some losers in any sporting revolution, and halting his progress seems to put him in the loser category. Draws are important, and while the solid hitter could have a chance against the new Kanye, this seems to be the old Kanye. Dimitrov tried exceptionally hard to beat Shapovalov in their Rome test, and it was good to see him playing well against even if the overarching idea is that the pinnacle of the tour has kinda passed him by. Dimitrov in 4-5.
Krajinovic Milojevic : Tough pull for Milojevic, who plays excellent dirt and worked very hard to qualify, notching wins against Leo Mayer and Yannick Maden. Kraj is pretty solid on clay and playing his best tennis the past few weeks. He’ll have to work hard to put Milojevic away, but he should do so. Krajinovic in 4.
Bedene Rinderknech : Strasbourg is in France, and Rinderknech is French. I like it. The 25 year old has been doing excellent recently on clay, and it’s nice to see him get a wildcard. Bedene isn’t the type of player who’s unbeatable, and Rinder’s win against Marc-Andrea Huesler (who should be in this event) shows he’s able to compete at tour level. The “home crowd” issue is probably getting annoying to read about now, but there’s some real comfort zone issues with the French players that lets them play comfortably there. Bedene is still a step above, but this could be close. Bedene in 5.
Laaksonen Cuevas : Henri never blinked in the qualifying, and this is a guy who does way more with way less. He trains his fitness at least as hard as anyone on tour, and while his game is pretty one-dimensional, he gets a lot out of it. He reminds me a bit of a local club champion who plays a tour pro and doesn’t just fold up and hope for their adulation. The serve is big and that’s the main weapon, and he’ll need it against Cuevas. Cuevas doesn’t give up much in the way of rallies and uses his variety to expose his opponents. Laaksonen won’t get tired, but he will have difficult ending baseline rallies, and his somewhat predictable approach is something that Cuevas is well suited to defend against. Cuevas in 4.
Munar Tsitsipas : This is a sleeper for an upset, especially with Tsitsipas playing for a title tomorrow. Munar hasn’t shown the type of world-beating dominance I expected him to on clay, because frankly he is a bit small for the tour, but he has a Nadal-level (RIP my inbox) effort on the court. He is rock-solid from the baseline and has a great attitude. Some injuries have hampered his development but even with Tsitsipas playing his best tennis this won’t be a walkover. The huge edge in serving for Tsitsipas means it’ll be tough for Munar to really apply pressure, but I think it’ll be a similar affair as his match with Garin where he seems in control until he begins making errors. Tsitsipas is still prone to shanking random rally balls and returning poorly. After talking up Munar’s chances I still think Tsitsipas may win in straight sets, but it’s one of those matches where I’d never give the spread. Tsitsipas in 3 difficult sets. PS Munar, or Lil Buttons as he’s known in the tennis rap community, buttons all the buttons on his shirt and that’s cute.
Monfils Bublik : Tough draw for both. Monfils has looked half motivated, as if he wants to play but can’t bring himself to until the pressure’s off or it would be an amazing comeback. It’s time to stop looking at these moments as a slump as this is pretty much how he has spent his whole career. When conditions are perfect, he thrives. These are outliers though, not his real level. Bublik won a bunch of sets of tennis this past week and had his chances against Garin. My initial thought looking at this match was that the games total of 35 seemed low. Bublik is likely to hold serve moderately well, and Monfils is likely to get drawn into the skill contest that Bublik represents with his dropshots/serve and volleys/underhand serves. I think this has potential to be the most entertaining match, and while Bublik is looking very good, Monfils has a lot of time here to play himself into a mental state where he can fight. Monfils in 5.
Gomez Sonego : Gomez and Sonego will both like their chances here. Sonego’s been losing, but to quality opponents like FAA and Ruud. Gomez qualified and got a nice article written about him, but his game has been legit and he’s been right around tour level for 2-3 seasons now. Gomez actually beat Seyboth Wild in the qualifiers, which is a huge win. Sonego really hasn’t won many matches, and that’ll be in his head a bit against a qualifier who is hungry to prove himself. Gomez in 5.
Thompson Albot : Our boy Radu hasn’t really been winning much since the tour’s return, which I think puts an asterisk next to the entire sport. It’s bad form for Radu not to get wins, and I believe that’s what Pospisil’s union is mainly focused on. Thompson was awfully disappointing against Coric in the USO, and is pretty bad on clay, but this again is a nice section of the draw with Fritz waiting in round two (I say that now but by the next paragraph I’ll convince myself he’s going to lose). Thompson in 4.
Machac Fritz : Is it legal to cheer? Machac’s recent results don’t say he can beat a player like Fritz, but he has beaten some players who can beat some players who can beat a player like Fritz. Fritz did well against Travaglia, and likely has the edge here. Some home-cooking for the 19 year old will be a factor if he manages to grab a set, but he’ll have to get there on his own and Fritz’ hitting may be a big factor in this one. Fritz in 3-4 but I’ll be crossin my fingas.
Coric Gombos : I see some people on twitter disrespecting my man Gombos. I’m lying, I don’t go near twitter, and only made an account so I can post a portrait of myself. You can view it here :
https://twitter.com/blurryturtle/header_photo
Gombos probably can’t win this, but he is the Gombosiest. Coric in fouric.
Rodionov Chardy : Is Chardy really tryna play tennis anymore? It seems like he’d have been making a retirement announcement this year but the pandemic ruined it. Rodionov did great in the qualifiers and winning is a habit. Chardy has the skill and serving to outclass Rodionov but he just hasn’t been doing the work lately. The upset is somewhat likely in my mind. Rodionov in 4-5.
Moutet Giustino : Local rapgod Corentin Moutet is a tiny little nugget of a player, who plays a big big game. Both have been winning matches lately, and this will be a tight contest. If this gets deep, I like Moutet as his experience winning 5-set matches is a big factor and his game is better after some miles are on both opponents since he thrives on his speed but plays a bit too far behind the baseline. Giustino in 4 or Moutet in 5.
Kecmanovic Schwartzman : We all know Kecmanovic is a great baseliner. He’s one of the tours more competent pushers, but Diego is just a better version of him. Diego was at his best in Rome, and I expect a good run here. Schwartzman in fourtzman.
I feel like there are more matches than usual. Also always nice when they don’t release the qualifier matchups until the day before the tournament. Thus ends my gripes.
Wawrinka Murray : Is it okay if I think they’ll both lose? Wawrinka played one of the funnier challenger events, losing the first set in almost every single round then winning the match and the title. Murray has hinted at the old Murray at times, but fans have grown a bit sadpants when watching him struggle with mid-level tour players. Murray hasn’t played, and Wawrinka looks like he hasn’t wanted to. The edge here goes to Wawrinka, but I expect a great contest as Murray has no quit in him and Stan has shown a prolific ability to find struggle where there is none. Wawrinka in 5.
Koepfer Hoang : Tough wildcard draw for Hoang, though a year ago he’d have been ecstatic. Hoang’s been winning locally, and I wouldn’t sleep on him here. He has a great serve, a big backhand, and is still developing. Home court advantage adds another wrinkle, but Koepfer will likely be physically recovered from his runs in Rome/Hamburg, and he really showed he can elevate his game and cover the court remarkably during that period. Koepfer in 4, and hopefully he’ll be the wakeup call Wawrinka needs in round 2.
Gaston Janvier : Two wildcards playing each other. Good for them. Probably Gaston in 4 (he has the much cooler name/hits a bit bigger)
Nishioka Auger-Alliassime : This one is interesting given FAA’s struggle to find his serving last week. Squishioka can be very frustrating in rallies, but he just hasn’t been able to win matches on clay. Clay is more of a big hitters surface, even though it’s slow. The work ethic is there, but not the offense. A disaster of a day for FAA if he loses this one; I don’t rule it out but it’s unlikely, and Bublik was in great form which explains half the loss. FAA in 3-4.
Ruud Sugita : Ruud has been excellent for years, and now he is looking like a real threat against anyone outside the top ten, and a big hurdle for those inside it. Sugita is a nice guy, but Ruud in 3.
Paul Duckworth : Tommy Paul’s best surface is clay? He really has shown an ability to perform and Duckworth just enjoyed a zipping in his last outing. One way trafffic, and Paul/Ruud in the second round is a great matchup. Paul in 3.
Opelka Sock : Say no to Jack Sock. It is addictive when this half boy/half potato starts winning matches. I think it continues here. Opelka has played no warmups, and moving on clay for such a tall fellow is really tough. He’ll have a tough time hanging with Sock’s pace, and the easier opponent (defensively) is likely to make Sock really focus on hitting to the open court. Sock in 4.
Honestly you’d tell me if there’s extra matches right? I feel like some guys are playing twice.
Cilic Thiem : Cilic is going to be sick of Thiem by the end of this one, but as a fan this is the perfect early round for Thiem. After playing no warmup matches the concern is rust, and so I’m excited to see Thiem have a match where he has to work right away. Typing that makes me a bit scared, as Cilic has played some ok tennis in the warmup, beating Goffin 2, 2. Still, this sub’s affinity for Thiem’s tumbly bum won’t let him lose in the first round, and as he gets going I think we’ll see him kinda shape into a threat for the title. Thiem in 4.
Zverev Novak : Novak isn’t great on clay. Trouble is, neither is Zverev. After a major finals, I don’t picture a guy like Zverev coming in with a smaller ego. I think there will be some harrowing moments in this, and if Herbert plays well in round one I like him to take at least two sets off Zverev. Zverev in 4-5, and I’m interested to see if he’s on the “slow start gradual turnup” path again, as that’s a terrible plan on clay for a guy who’s prone to frustration.
Mmoh Herbert : Mmoh did well to qualify, besting Renzo Olivo. Add in that Hyeon Chung was in their draw, and you really have a lack of offense in that section. Herbert has been bad recently, losing to a number of players he’d normally beat. His game depends largely on his serving, and while he’s one of the best players at net outside the big 3 (I’d put him first/Sock second) he needs to get there to be effective. Mmoh is a defensive test, but Herbert likely won’t want to get dragged into extended rallies, so this will look a bit like a low-rent version of Garin vs Bublik. I think Herbert at home gets the job done, but it may take some patches of trial and error to crack Mmoh’s defense. Herbert in 4-5.
Delbonis Londero : I was initially excited to back Londero a bunch after his USO run, as I know his best surface is clay. This is his second match against his countryman though, and it is a poor matchup for him as Delbonis has been playing decent. Delbonis his big and segments the game nicely, so the pace of the ball is fast, but the progression of rallies is slow. I don’t expect Londero to lose in straight sets, but it’s hard to back him after losing to Delbonis a few weeks ago. Delbonis in 4-5, but for betting porpoises I’d recommend avoiding this altogether.
Cecchinato De Minaur : Hehe. Finally stringing wins together, Cecchinato’s reward is a maindraw against a guy who is a nightmare matchup. Cecchinato plays a classic claycourt game. Big power and deft dropshots. He needs time to produce the first of those, and De Minaur takes that away. The dropshots are cute, but De Minaur covers the net better than most on tour. He lost to Koepfer in his only warmup on clay, and Cecchinato has won a bunch of matches recently, but this is a fairly even matchup. Both are excellent frontrunners, and I think the first few sets will be very competitive. Hard to pick against De Minaur in a long contest early in the event, and Cecchinato’s defense will likely be an issue if ADM is serving well. De Minaur in 4.
Paire Kwon : Paire still avoiding multiple matches, which is an excellent strategy for his longevity as a pro athlete. He basically could lose to anyone at this point, and his retirement in Hamburg appeared to be “I’m tired”. This is a bad sign, and worse still, Kwon is not a player who’ll beat him quick or represent a dominant opponent he can just tank against. This is one I’d advise listening to rather than watching, as Paire’s outbursts will be better than his play. I’m somewhat expecting Kwon to win, although this is similar to Nishioka/FAA where the more stable player lacks the weapons to just win in dominant fashion. Kwon via retirement.
Coria Jung : Coria is a wall. Jung is not a wall. Why not be a wall? Coria in 4.
Bonzi Ruusuvuori : Bonzi beat Karlovic which makes me sad, but I’m happy to see the challenger journeyman get a shot in a grandslam. Ruusuvuori is slowly becoming a household name, and his clay game isn’t adept but it’s a notch better than Bonzi. Fatigue may be a factor here not in hampering Bonzi’s game, but in Ruusuuvuori’s being more crisp. Ruu-uuu-u—- in 4.
Sinner Goffin : One of the sketchier first round matchups, what with wildcards playing each other and Coria and Jung going at it. This happens though, and it’s our gift to watch it. Sinner is one of the more promising prospects on the tour in a long time, and with the next gen guys finally starting to come through with big results and solid play, seeing a guy who seems more mentally stable than they were early on in their career is even better. Goffin losing quickly to Cilic isn’t a great sign, and he’s always a threat to go elfmode and stifle his opponents ability to play offense, but I think Jannik’s serving will give him a small edge here. Sinner in 4.
Fognini Kukushkin : Fognini had ankle surgeries, or else his recent string of poor performances and losses would be his normal string of poor performances and losses. He doesn’t seem willing to press himself yet, and this is another Paire/Kwon style matchup. Kukushkin will take any victory he gets a look at, but isn’t going to overwhelm his opponent. Fognini’s impatiance against Ruud did include a number of shots that missed by very little, and on the slower courts in Paris he may land a greater percentage of these. I expect Fognini to play a bit better, and this will be about optics. If Fognini feels like he looks bad or is in a spot where him trying would risk his ego, he’ll fold, and Kukushkin will win. This is sad to say about a professional athlete, but Fognini has the ankle situation to fall back on, so if he can’t win,he’ll just swing for the fences and inspect his racquet until it’s over. He’s very pretty tho. Kukushkin in 4, hopefully.
Martinez Vukic : Martinez was the best in the qualifying, and Vukic was in the qualifying. Martinez in 3.
Korda Seppi : Korda is becoming a sleeper pick on tour, and Seppi is notoriously at his worst on clay since he hits such a flat ball. I think this will stretch deep, and I am tempted to give the edge to Korda given Seppi’s recent loss to Klahn and Musetti and Korda’s win against Karatsev, who has been one of the best players in the past month on clay on the challenger tour. Korda in 4.
Benchetrit Isner : Benchetrit can make this close since it’s on clay, but Isner should be able to get into tiebreakers, which makes predicting this almost as annoying as Isner bouncing the ball between his legs. The dude’s a muppet. Someone in 4 tiebreakers.
Evans Nishikori : Evans hasn’t been great, and Nishikori has been worse. Nishikori has looked like he was gaining control of rallies and immediately making errors for a few weeks now, and it’s frustrating to predict his matches because there’s that sense that he will find form at some point. Evans likely gets the W here but it will take a lot of work. Evans in 4-5.
Andujar Travaglia : “BEGONE,” commanded Andujar. I stood there speechless. “YOU ARE AN ILLUSION!” he bellowed, waking several colorful parrots who sat atop his head. I was not there. What he saw was only his vision of me, which had come to him in a dream commanded by the vines and souls of tropical frogs. Confident that I had gone, he hopped off his perch on the mountain peak, and began descending. Not in the usual way via legs and feet, but on the breeze of a thousand moths, while nearby shamans began making a thousand broths. Andujar is back, and I hate this matchup. Travaglia was brilliant on serve leading up to RG, and Andujar was a breath of fresh air on the challenger tour, notching win after win after win and rarely dropping a set. This is one I expect to go deep, as both players are at their best. Who will win? A man does not summon the future, lest it become the present. Shamans in 3.
Diez McDonald : idc
Gerasimov Nadal : So we all know what will happen if I suggest Nadal will struggle in a match. Luckily, I won’t have to here. Gerasimov’s movement isn’t good enough to trouble many players on clay, and Nadal is probably the most dominant single-surface player that tennis has ever seen. He looked pretty human last week against Diego, and his muscles were muscley, but not as muscley as usual. Where is his massive crab-arm? The winner of Travaglia/Andujar will be his first real test. Nadal in 2 somehow.
PS User Kuklachert runs a very fun picking contest if you're interested in discord ... check it out here https://www.reddit.com/tennis/comments/izhabroland_garros_tipping_competition/

Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin Bosses SL1 Tier List - Who is Objectively Worst? [Very Long Post with Naughty Language]

Many moons have there been since this accursed, low-level wanderer sat by the OneBro bonfire and spun a yarn about the objective baddery of Dark Souls bosses, and now he has returned.
So following my somewhat successful (I think...Relatively) post ranking DS1 bosses by objective badness here is the follow up. All bosses, from DS2:SotFS, ranked, objectively, by objective badness as rated by the Board of Official Objective Baddery (BOOB), in ascending order, 1 being least objectively bad and eightmillionandtwelve being most objectively bad. *
So put on your reading glasses, strap in, relax and prepare for a long list because mathematicians are still unsure as to whether to classify the number of bosses in Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin as an infinity.
\Note: For clarity it should be specified early that there is little objective about any of this, it's a bit. Go with the bit.*
1. Dragonrider – He usually throws himself off the ledge in embarrassment at the fact that you can slay him with about ten taps of a rotting hardware store hammer. He’s also built like Brock Lesnar’s fatter, more muscular uncle, and wearing heavy armour, making you wonder about the enormous strength of the dragons he used to ride.
2. Old Iron King – He can’t navigate doorways. You can avoid all but one attack by using the best shield in the game – ‘The Threshold’. Given that he’s supposed to be a Great Lord on par with DS1s Gwyn he’s a massive disappointment and easy as piss. That hole in the ground on the back wall of the arena probably accounts for more deaths.
3. The Last Giant – Then who and/or what the fuck is Yhorm? Or does ‘Time is convoluted’ just mean you can ret-con bollocks? Either way he beats Iron King because you can’t just stand under a lintel and not get hit. He also pulls him arm off to beat you with it and that’s pretty metal, but he does die from you tickling his feet, so possibly not so much.
4. Skeleton Lords – Do you remember The Catacombs-Tomb of Giants from DS1? It’s that - the boss fight, which weirdly makes it easier. A bunch of skeletons come at you and you grind them to bonedust with a mace whilst running in circles.
5. Prowling Magus and Congregation – Do you remember that gank in DS1 on the way to the Gargoyles? It’s that – the boss fight! Scholar is absolutely chock full of standard enemy ganks that are all harder than this, or the previous entry.
6. Covetous Demon – Ever wanted to fight Jabba the Hutt’s sperm in a windmill that is apparently milling depleted uranium into a toxic poison powder? Who hasn’t, right!? Well now’s your chance and he’s about as agile as you expect. His main attacks are being fat and fucking stupid, the second one is more effective.
7. Flexile Sentry – The boss that looks cooler than it is effective. Carrying four amazing weapons and somehow finding no way to make up for the fact that its weird conjoined middle is there for an attacking.
8. Demon of Song – Froggy’d be lower if not for the fact than he can hit quite hard, especially at SL1. Otherwise, Damon of Snog is a roll and a few stabs away from being trivial. His strong love of face-hiding turtleneck sweaters is also a saving grace.
9. The Pursuer – He’s ‘Baby’s First Training Fight’, let’s be honest. Probably the first of the non-trivial bosses on this list but also at the bottom because even if you don’t take the route of parry-ballista-ballista, he’s just parry-smash-roll-hit-roll-hit-parry-smash. If you had trouble with him on your first regular playthrough, an SL1 of this guy will make you ashamed of your past self!
10. Royal Rat Vanguard – The last of the non-troubling ganks, but it’s still a shit-ton of rats. That’s what this fight is. It’s a room full of rats. Kill some rats and a special rat with a hairstyle comes out and that rat has more HP than the other rats, presumably because of his cool hair, and gets a red bar. You can tear through them all with a rapier and chomp on some gems if you find yourself in trouble because they don’t do a lot of damage.
11. Executioner’s Conjoined Horse – The chariot is not a boss, I refuse to acknowledge it as such. There are some skeletons and there’s a horse, that’s the boss. That said, it can and will hurt you if you’re not careful. Bow-cheese doesn’t even make this trivial because it takes ages, but it’s still relatively simple.
12. Dragonriders – No I said “…riders”! It’s plural! Second verse very similar to the first but with an echo that carries a bow and arrow. That can make this fight tricky until you realise Mr. Bow and Arrow is wearing eggshell armour, cracks with a light tap, and once you’ve taken one out, the rest is as easy as beating a Dragonrider. So far three of them have been spotted, no dragons with them. What the hell are they riding? That’s like meeting up with Lewis Hamilton in the post-fossil fuel future and calling him ‘Cardriver’.
13. Ruin Sentinels – This lower-mid pack gets tough. I put the ruin sentinels here because they’re not bad, but they do have some tricky range and jumps. Add in the fact that they are a bit of a gank, and they can prove troublesome. They get shredded by the mace, though, and if you can get some lightning lube on it they’re stripped of HP quick.
14. Mytha, the Baneful Queen – Poison mistress and head-carrying Medusa rip-off, this is a boss you can be forgiven for summoning for because Jester Thomas is a straight-up SuperBro. Even if you don’t summon, though, the poison moat is more annoying than she is. With few, if any, non-telegraphed attacks the most annoying of which is her crazy-range spear thrust. You’ll take her out in no-time, even at SL1.
15. Old Dragonslayer – If you try to take him on when you can first reach him he falls about here on the list. Go back with a further upgraded mace and you’ll grind his meat faster than Maneater Mildred with a hankering for Ornstein Pie. It’s fake Ornstein, with less oomph and less impressive moves.
16. Scorpioness Najka – Is it Naj-ka, is it Nay-ka or is it Na-ka? Who knows!? All I know is attack while her stingers are underground, except when the rest of her is. She gets a few points of objective baddery for soul spears, the range of her thrust, and definitely that rangey tail whip. They will all hurt at SL1. Of the arachnid waifus she’s no Quelaag.
17. The Rotten – Another disappointing Great Lord, but at least he’s not stumped by a door. He’s basically Mildred, Nito and Quelag rolled up and smoked. This lava-surrounded, butcher knife wielding amalgam of dead junk is so easy he is often bonfire asceticked (I’m verbing it. That and the verb ‘to verb’ are getting verbed) to get early access to Drangleic Castle. Beat him four times and you’ve got the souls to proceed.
18. Belfry Gargoyles – It’s the Belfry Gargoyles from DS1, only more of them. Just like how Dark Souls II is basically Dark Souls but more of them. This is a real pain in the perineum. The gargoyles go down relatively quickly, but a tricky moveset and the fact that there can be 4 of them out at once means you can, and will, get swamped.
19. Smelter Demon – If this were based on personal experience he’d be in the single digits. My first ever DS2 run Smelter was a nightmare, so I had a feeling of dread when I came back for him at SL1. Only when I got there it wasn’t a snorting, orange-glowing, bull-headed demon wielding a frightening sword. It was a small ginger tabby kitten with tickle-scratchy claws. That said - heavy weapon, awkward moveset and an obnoxious AoE effect on his body. Definitely in the realm of bullshit.
20. Giant Lord – It is tough to know where to put this one. He can be as easy as tickle his tootsies until he falls. Every now and then, though, you’ll have a hard time. He is one of those DS2 bosses for whom the run up is more frustrating than he is. Smelty above is just the same.
21. The Duke’s Dear Freja – What happens when you have a spider for a pet and feed it growth hormones and magical pebbles? Freja. At SL1, being accidentally in the way of its leg moving can kill you. At the same time, it’s so pattern based that the most annoying aspect of the fight becomes managing the smaller spiders when you’d rather be two handing your weapon instead of carrying a torch.
22. Aldia, Scholar of the First Sin – He’s a fire tree. Since when were trees scholars? They’re made of wood, how do they cope being permanently on fire? What is the first sin? Is it lust? So many questions and yet, no answers. Why? Because as far as big challenges at the end of the main story go, he isn’t one. Basically just don’t walk into his fire and you’re fine.
23. Guardian Dragon – 22 to 25 is a quadrilogy that, for me, are interchangeable and I place them in the order I do based upon my own experience. Guardian Dragon is exactly the same guy you have to beat to get to Old Dragonslayer just as an actual boss. The annoying fire-breaths stop this being a trivial fight but to me the least objectively bad of this group.
24. Velstadt, the Royal Aegis – He carries a giant metal acorn on a stick with a bell in it. That scares the hell out of me, and it should because he has a couple of annoying swings that can hit you in weird places. That said, he also spends a decent amount of time doing stuff you can just walk around, while stabbing him. It seems inefficient.
25. The Lost Sinner – Dark room, fast moves and a distinct lack of ADP boosting gear before doing this fight make it a real tough point. Anyone used to fighting her earlier will have a distinct advantage but otherwise she is a challenge. Rumour has it she spends all her time in darkness so you can’t see how hot she is, rawr!
26. Looking Glass Knight – Absolutely not the worst of this quadrilogy by any subjective measure but objectively it’s a minor gank and a pain in the dick. Any time there are multiple targets it increases chaos and decreases predictability, thus making it more objectively bad for the SL1 player. That’s what happens here. I, subjectively, would put Guardian Dragon at 25. Objectively, though, Guardian Dragon doesn’t randomly summon a potential human player halfway through the boss fight just to fuck with you.
27. Vendrick – I suppose he can fall somewhere between “Objectively as hard as cellular respiration” and “I’d rather masturbate with rusty nails!” depending on your Giant Souls but his moveset is sluggish and predictable and he’s deliberately intended to be a grim spectre of a potential final boss, so he’s not so bullshit unless you get caught on the tip of that 320 degree swing.
28. Elana, the Squalid Queen – I’ll level with you, this might be here because of subjective reasons but I am not going back to re-do this part just to find it if I’m gud, flukey or plain lucky. Basically I didn’t find Pooshandra all that tough or bullshit, especially if you don’t get a Velshidt summon. It took me around a handful of tries and I was expecting more from a DLC boss.
29. Nashandra’s Curse Orbs – Nashandra herself is an utter disappointment as a final boss. To make up for her shortcomings as a challenging fight the developers decided they should surround her in a circle of orbs that can curse you. Curse in DS2 works by just being damage. They’re take-care-ofable but they caused me a decent amount of trouble.
30. Sir Alonne – One of my criteria for objective baddery is enjoyability. This should put Sir Alonne lower down this list but for one thing. He has a sword thrust that turns the middle of his blade into a vacuum cleaner that sucks you onto it even if you’re thousands of miles away. That is objectively bad. Alonne is an excellent fight, a fantastic tussle but that one little thing ruins it.
31. Fume Knight – Very similar to Sir Alonne. In my experience a very satisfying fight, a two-way tussle where you have to learn when is safe and when is not safe to stab. Honestly, stick by his side, learn your roll timing and you can pretty much stab away! Definitely high up the objective baddery for his magic swords that hit you with the air trail behind them as if you just got run over by a monster truck, though.
32. Ancient Dragon – Objectively bad because it’s like fighting a brick wall that sometimes drops a brick down on you that knocks you out. It is the easiest method for the hardest fight in the game and a true test of patience. Tickle his toes and he’ll (eventually, sometime next century) fall.
33. Sinh the Schleepy Dragon – He’s so sweet. He got a little sick, so he took a nap and then he’s grouchy when you wake him up. Not too tanky to seem like a chore at SL1, but has a few juggernaut-hits and sometimes he decides to rack up the frequent flier miles rather than fight.
34. Blue Smelter Demon – Same as the orange one except for two things, magic passive AoE and delayed hits. Nowhere near as bad as I remembered from my levelled run on the SL1, though. A bit of a disappointment actually.
35. Royal Rat Authority – Yeah, this objectively bad. One of the worst damn bosses in all Soulsborne. A decent aim on an upgraded bow will turn this fight from ridiculous gank twattery into mere hitbox hell. It’s not even a rat! Have you seen a rat that looks like that!? It’s a damn mangey mutt gank!
36. Lud and Zallen – Perhaps a surprise but despite the difficulty of the snowcats, these two are HP scaled to suit their gank and the time in which you may have to deal with two at once is minimal because you’ll either kill or be killed. They’re bad, but they’re not that bad.
37. Throne Watcher and Throne Defender – The real final boss of Scholar. Nashandra is less worrying than her curse orbs and Aldia is only as effective as you are actually stupid. These two, though – wow, what a shitty gimmick for the SL1. Requiring you not only manage your health, your stamina, any buffs you may have but also manage their HPs so you can kill them within about 15-20 seconds of each other to prevent the rez. If you refuse to use Brightbugs through your run these are the guys who will waver your conviction.
38. Darklurker – Half of this fight is like slapping an infant. There’s a danger you might get slapped back, but you’ll probably stop it, or it won’t hurt and you can just keep on slappin’. Then Darklurker decides to split into two and at that point you’re entirely at the mercy of your own capacity to actually split your vision and keep a conscious eye on two things at once, as well as multitasking by controlling a virtual avatar avoiding the things the two things you are watching are doing. This fight is so objectively bad it turned me into a pyromancer! Not kidding, this was the fight where I learned that DS2 has possibly the richest assortment of paths you can take as an SL1 character and I went full pyro build for him. Trying to get in close to one, watch the other and get stabs, slashes or smashes in did not work, but dancing around and dropping Flame Swathes? That changed the game for me.
39. The Shulva Sanctum Super Squad – aka The Gank Squad, aka Cerah the Old Explorer, Ancient Soldier Varg and the Afflicted Graverobber. It takes a lot to be considered objectively worse than this in my opinion. A lot. How a fight against three cosplayers is more tedious than giving a giant dressed as a dragon a mani-pedi is beyond me. How a fight against three pseudo-PvPers is more irritating than a poison dograt gank is beyond me. If you were to ask for my subjective worst, here it is. You want the subjective baddery, the subjective bullshit, this fight has it all. Try and take them on fairly and you’ll last seconds before a dragon tooth squashes you so your options are cheese or Benny Hill and neither of those feel in any way satisfying. You can’t even make fun of this fight, it’s like being invaded by a squad of ten year olds who think they’re being clever. Everybody loses in the end. Are they, objectively, the worst though?
40. Burnt Ivory King – You thought that previous gank was bad? How about a gank that makes you do more of a DLC to make it even remotely tolerable, and even then it will still throw a curveball at you for that gank by making your army of buddies about as potent as a fart in a hurricane! Add to that the fact that those buddies sacrifice themselves to make the gank stop and then act like total tools as the real boss comes out and does that boss have a weapon with lingering hitboxes? That bane of SL1? YOU BET HE DOES! Put a bonfire between the gank and the King and you’ve got a fan of this setup, as it is it’s objectively bad for SL1, SL100 or even SL-damn-1000! It’s a needless annoyance that at SL1 becomes a literal barrier. I said to my partner, who was watching as I did this fight, that once I got passed the gangwar section I’d have the boss beat within five attempts. It took me two. It took me many, many more than that to hold off a bunch of immolated imbeciles and stop my own Sid-from-Ice-Age’s in armour from dancing around in circles as they got whacked. Dull structure that ruins a good fight.
41. Aava the King’s Jank – It’s paws are actually twice the size they appear on screen and they are made of a special type of rubber that stretches physically without doing so visually. Combine that with a tongue made up of inescapable black holes and you have, objectively, the worst fight for SL1 in Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin.
My DS1 and DS3 lists for objective baddery have a tendency towards ranking via difficulty but DS2 really bucks that trend by ruining its bosses with –ank factors. Jank and Gank. Sometimes you can see what they were going for, but it was executed badly, sometimes you’re just left scratching your head and sometimes it is apparent that the Souls community shot itself in the foot with all its elitist nonsense and ‘git gud’ attitudes. There is a definite element in Scholar that while in other DS game you rage and call objective baddery because of the way fights are deliberately designed (e.g. Friede – who is still, objectively, the worst designed SL1 boss but only because she was never ‘designed’ with that in mind) but in DS2 a lot of the most objectively bad bosses are there because of accidents of design. Aava is number 1 not because of difficulty, length, moveset or anything like that. It’s because she’s a Dark Souls 3 speed boss in a Dark Souls 2 paced game with hitboxes that are nothing remotely like the limbs being used to hit and a grab attack that can literally suck you in from distance. Sir Alonne has a vacuum blade that ruins a fight that I would otherwise put somewhere 1-10 on the list because of how damn enjoyable it is, even if it is difficult!
With that said I thoroughly enjoyed every boss challenge on my scholar all-bosses run, but there were things that were objectively bad that I raged against and hated.
Welcome to the true most objectively bad bosses in Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin – Environment Edition!
1. Huntsman’s Copse – This area killed my CoC challenge. My SL1 run was paused here for a very long time and only after a couple of hours of perseverance on returning did I realise I still had CoC on. The bridge approach to Executioner’s Chariot is a pain in the arse when one of those dark whip guys can knock you down so easily, and those narrow runs up to the bonelords are a thrown dagger to the dick.
2. Iron Keep/Run to Smelter Demon – Apparently Alonne knights have the anime power of doubling the speed and framerate of your game when running at you from far away, and there’re TONS of them. Think you can dodge and make it to that fogdoor? So did I, THEN I TOOK AN ARROW TO THE EVERYTHING! One of the most frustrating design elements for the SL1 runner is the ability to get stunlocked out of entering a damn door! Add in an uninspired design that feels most ‘gamey’ of all DS2s environments and it’s…it’s not good.
3. Shrine of Amana – Really? This is a shrine? A shrine to what? I reckon the only reason they think it’s a shrine is because every adventurer who goes there is like “HOLY FUCKING SHIT WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THIS PLACE!?” It’s a lake of dickbags, some of whom angrily throw magic at your face, some of whom are weird priests and what the hell even is a milfanito? A tiny Spanish milf!? Get outta here.
4. Black Gulch – Oh so you like exploring? Screw you, here’s a crossfire of poison spit, a potential Dark Spirit Forlorn hotspot with creepy hand monsters that jump out of the puddles you run by. It’d be higher up if it was more a marathon than a sprint.
5. Iron Passage – More like back passage.
6. Dark Chasm – How about we make you use a resource to repeat an area we filled with deliberately bullshit enemies so you can face that tough boss. How about we make that area about as visually inspired as “shit cave” too, while we’re at it.
7. Memory of the Old Iron King – You might not remember this area because the human brain has a great capacity for selective amnesia when it comes to traumatic events so my apologies for reminding you it’s that bit where Alonne Knights violate you in all your holes (including lachrymal ducts) whilst giant salamanders shoot fire so you can try and make it to a boss.
8. Majula – IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY, YOU CAN SEE THE WATER, BUT YOU CAN’T GET TO THE GOD DAMN BEACH!
9. Undead Crypt – One reason…DING DING, DING DING, DING DING, DING DING.
10. The Frigid Outskirts – Absolutely, positively, objectively the worst thing in any souls game ever. If I wanted to spend my time running away from giant, death-dealing horse-deer hybrids in a snowy hellhole I’d stick on my moosebait suit and move to fucking Sweden! Yeah you can carry a big stick and some repair powders so that you can fail to the boss and do it all over again. The worst.

Scholar is a weird one. I can see the faults in the game, but I'll also defend it. DS3 was such a rehash of DS1 that was itself very derivative of Demon's Souls that the amount of things 2 does different is worthy of applause in my book. That said, it's a difficult second album and it hits a lot of bum notes. The environments thing is not just a bit, it truly has some of the worst environmental design not just for SL1, but in general, of any soulsborne title. Some of those environments are a legitimate chore and the reason I would recommend savescumming to anyone doing all bosses. What's sad is I think if they had had a visionary behind the game who could tell them what to cut, what to highlight, what to emphasise and what to minimise DS2 had some major potential.

That's that, then. DS3 to go and then I suppose I'll have to do some kind of overall top objectively bad Souls moments or something. For now, peace, love and bonfires.

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