I'm back. And it's time to get back to work. I know that a lot of you have been refreshing and looking out for my posts, and I'm sorry. Life just got way too busy and left me too tired to write. And even though you probably thought that I'd gone missing, I bet you the Surveillance State didn't. Nope. The all seeing eye knew exactly where I was. And not only me, it knows where you are. It knows where all of us are. And it probably knows us better than we know ourselves.

2010, August 28 • Google, CIA Invest in 'Future' of Web Monitoring. The investment arms of the CIA and Google are both backing a company that monitors the web in real time – and says it uses that information to predict the future. The company is called Recorded Future, and it scours tens of thousands of websites, blogs and Twitter accounts to find the relationships between people, organizations, actions and incidents – both present and still-to-come. In a white paper, the company says its temporal analytics engine "goes beyond search" by "looking at the 'invisible links' between documents that talk about the same, or related, entities and events." The idea is to figure out for each incident who was involved, where it happened and when it might go down. Recorded Future then plots that chatter, showing online "momentum" for any given event. "The cool thing is, you can actually predict the curve, in many cases," says company CEO Christopher Ahlberg, a former Swedish Army Ranger with a PhD in computer science. Source Here

That's so amazing isn’t it? You can actually predict the curve. Well now, let's think, were have we seen that curve terminology before? Population Curve? Nope, that's not right. Curve Your Enthusiasm? That doesn't sound right either. Right, it's Curb Your Enthusiasm. Duh. The Learning Curve? Ugh. I just can't remember, can you? Oh shoot, that's right, it's the Title of My Post's, Flatten the Curve. Ok. Moving on. Let's get back to Recorded Future.

Occupy Wall Street Media Monitoring • In 2011, Recorded Future reported, "... gaining online momentum for the Occupy Wall Street movement. When we look more carefully at influencers in this discussion using our Influencer Map, we find that Iran Press TV is the second largest influencer after the U.S. media!" Source Here

Recorded Future saw online momentum for the Occupy Wall Street Movement. But. But. Does that mean they knew the social discord was going to lead to today's riots? Could they be manipulating police to follow orders without fear of repercussions for the future? Nah. They couldn't have, otherwise police officers wouldn't be going to go jail after violating a citizens rights, right?

2020, June 22 • Police in America’s biggest cities are failing to meet even the most basic international human rights standards governing the use of lethal force, a new study from the University of Chicago has found. Researchers in the university’s law school put the lethal use-of-force policies of police in the 20 largest US cities under the microscope. They found not a single police department was operating under guidelines that are compliant with the minimum standards laid out under international human rights laws. Among the failings identified by the law scholars, some police forces violate the requirement that lethal force should only be wielded when facing an immediate threat and as a last resort. Some departments allow deadly responses in cases of “escaping suspects”, “fugitives”, or “prevention of crime” – all scenarios that would be deemed to fall well outside the boundaries set by international law. Top UN human rights expert urges US to listen to demands of protesters. In other cities, police guidelines failed to constrain officers to use only as much force as is proportionate to the threat confronting them. Source Here

Hmmm. Maybe the militarization of our police is starting to make a lot more sense now, doesn’t it? It makes you feel all warm and fuzzy to know that pretty soon that same police force will be able to track you anywhere.

May 15, 2012 • CIA Chief: We'll Spy on You Through Your Dishwasher. It's great that you've got so much new household hardware connected to the internet. Especially for the CIA, whose director wants to spy on you through it. More and more personal and household devices are connecting to the internet, from your television to your car navigation systems to your light switches. CIA Director David Petraeus cannot wait to spy on you through them. SOURCE HERE

What's David Petraeus talking about? The Internet of Things. That same Internet of Things that 5G is being rushed out for. That same Internet of Things that will help usher in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. That same 4th Revolution that the World Economic Forum is calling the Great Reset. Perfect Plan. Crisis. Crap your pants. Solution. If you think the Surveillance State is omnipresent now, just wait until the infrastructure is built for the next level of control. For our safety, of course. Keep Calm and Carry On. The Not Normal New Normal is going to be very dangerous. And to save us from the Not Normal New Normal they have to keep us safe from Fake News with Fact Checks. Wash Your Hands and Wear Your Mask. Keep your Contact Tracer App Up to Date. Don't gather in large groups, use the internet to keep in touch with friends and loved ones, that way we can data mine those conversations to keep you safe from conspiracy theorists antivax who propagate propoganda.

September 2, 2020 • Although the coronavirus pandemic has altered how people live for some time now, the knowledge that it will have an end is a faint light at the end of a long socially distanced tunnel. But, according to new research, that light may be further than we thought. Infectious disease expert and coronavirus task force voice of reason Anthony Fauci believes we may be entering a “pandemic era.” Because of course we are. Source Here

The Pandemic Era. Line up and get shot, errr, sorry, I meant, line up and get your shots. Don't be an antivaxer. Save Civilization, Get Your Vaccination. Remember, we won't have a second wave, it will just be one long continuous wave. Wait. Hold up. Nope. That's wrong. We are having a second wave. Surf's up so don't wipe out.

His assertion comes from a new report in the scientific journal Cell, whose author David Morens, a medical historian and colleague of Fauci’s at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, predicts that coronavirus might be only the first of a series of worldwide diseases. These types of diseases have been cropping up more and more frequently, according to research. The phenomenon is similar to the exponential growth of climate change, meaning if a “pandemic age,” becomes a reality, it joins humanity’s very real race to doomsday. Neat!

Ah. The Pandemic Era and Environmental Collapse. Amazing! It's the sequel that we've been waiting for! Mad Max and Pandemic Road. And who is causing the upcoming doom? Why us, who else. You see, the enemy isn't at the gates, that Trojan Horse was yesterday's news. The Terrorists that were threatening Western Civilization have been beaten back, only to be replaced by an enemy that can't be seen or heard. The Biological Terrorists. And how are we responsible for the Great Bioterror that needs a Great Reset?

As for the culprit to this acceleration? It’s us, of course. For how humans are causing this acceleration, Fauci and Morens point to deforestation, urban crowding, and wet markets for wild game, which have been wreaking havoc for a century and contribute to environmental degradation around the world.

Us. It's always us. We don't listen. We just Keep Calm and Carry On. But now we're going to have to listen. We won't have any choice, will we? The environment is collapsing. It's our fault. We own the companies. We package small items in big boxes because, marketing. We dump toxic chemical waste that poison people. We make cellphones that are outdated in one year. We're the one's lying about plastic being recycled. What? You actually thought you were doing your part and saving the environment?

2020, September, 21 • The industry's awareness that recycling wouldn't keep plastic out of landfills and the environment dates to the program's earliest days, [NPR] found. "There is serious doubt that [recycling plastic] can ever be made viable on an economic basis," one industry insider wrote in a 1974 speech. Yet the industry spent millions telling people to recycle, because, as one former top industry insider told NPR, selling recycling sold plastic, even if it wasn't true. Here's the basic problem: All used plastic can be turned into new things, but picking it up, sorting it out and melting it down is expensive. Plastic also degrades each time it is reused, meaning it can't be reused more than once or twice. On the other hand, new plastic is cheap. It's made from oil and gas, and it's almost always less expensive and of better quality to just start fresh. As it turns out, less than 10% of plastic has ever been recycled.

Ever.

Source Here
It's us.. We demand these things. What? Does that shock you? Of course that's why they make our goods disposable, the public demands it. It's not like marketing works and the demand is a manufactured need to increase their profits. Nope. It's us. Our existence is killing the planet. This wouldn't be happening if there weren't so many of us. Because this is obviously the first extinction level event that could be happening because of abrupt climate change.

2020, September, 25 • A New Mass Extinction Event Has Been Discovered, And It Triggered The Rise of Dinosaurs. Source Here

Oh. Six mass extinction events. But it's us isn't it? Just look around. Birds falling from the sky. Fish washing up on shore. Elephant's dying.

WAIT! HOLD UP!

Didn't I write about the Elephant's dying? Yep. Flatten the Curve. Part 30 And didn't I say that it was cyanobacteria because I saw a pond that looked like it was outgassing hydrogen sulfide gas in a video I linked to? Yes, yes I did. And guess what? The Greek was right.

More than 300 elephants in Botswana have been killed by toxin-producing cyanobacteria in waterholes, government wildlife officials said Monday. But that explanation doesn't satisfy some conservationists. The deaths, which took place over the course of three months, were first recorded in May and reported in early July. Their cause was initially a mystery; Botswana ordered laboratory tests to be carried out on carcass, soil and water samples as speculation grew over the deaths. Cyanobacteria are routinely found in water, but not all produce toxins. Scientists worry that climate change will trigger the bacteria to produce more toxins as water temperatures rise and conditions become more favorable for the bacteria to grow. Source Here

That doesn't satisfy some conservationists? Really? Worldwide reports of a rotten egg smell. Dogs dying when they jump into cyanobacteria filled waters. Rivers turning red. Nah. The New Normal is our New Normal, until AI turns it into our New New Normal.

Pax Technica • What is the internet of things? This pax will not be dominated by any one state, Howard argues, but by “a special kind of stability in global politics, revealing a pact between big technology firms and government”. The categories of democracy and dictatorship will fall. In their place, he claims, will be data-driven socio-technocracies, built on the intensive reporting of our behaviours, habits, tastes and beliefs, seamlessly transmitted by the devices we use, carry and interact with. We won’t need to express our political preferences and needs: our white goods and driverless cars will express them for us. Source Here By tracking us in intensive and intrusive ways – not only in our homes, but in our vehicles and bodies – data-driven devices can nudge, manipulate and mould our behaviours, habits and preferences, limit our autonomy, and bring quantification, segregation and discrimination to what is currently a political economy held together by social fuzziness.

They'll be able to shape and modify our behavior. And when you put Recorded Future and other companies into the mix, guess what happens? They'll shape and modify our behaviours before they become our behaviours, because they'll already know how we'll behave in the future. Kind of like the shaming of antivaxer behavior before they announce:

Annual COVID-19 Vaccine May Be Necessary. Source Here

Or priming us for AI to save the environment:

According to a recent survey by Intel and the research firm Concentrix, 74 percent of business-decision makers working in environmental sustainability agree artificial intelligence (AI) will help solve long-standing environmental challenges; 64 percent agree the Internet of Things (IoT) will help solve these challenges. As the field of AI develops, so will the potential to protect the environment. From the land and air to both drinking and ocean water, AI is shaping up to be the key that governments, organizations, and individuals can tap to work toward a cleaner planet. Source Here

Do you see where all this is going? The AI and IoT will be everywhere. It will save us from the Collapse, which really means, it will save us from ourselves. Do you see the convergence that's taking place? No? Let me remind you. Because if we are the problem, then we aren't alone.

Coronavirus which is killing and infecting people all over the world was created in a Lab in China's Wuhan, such an idea would have been labelled a conspiracy theory until a few weeks ago. But earlier this week, a Chinese virologist Dr Li-Meng Yan, in an exclusive conversation with WION claimed that the deadly coronavirus was developed in a government laboratory in Wuhan. She also said that Chinese government was aware of the COVID-19 spread. And now Professor Giuseppe Tritto, an internationally known expert in biotechnology and nanotechnology in his book 'China COVID 19: The chimera that changed the world' has said that he believes the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is behind the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19), leaving little doubt that this viral “chimera” was artificially created as a bioweapon. Source Here

Researchers claim long-term exposure to air pollution in China killed 30.8 million people between 2000 and 2016. Source Here

We're going to war against China, while they get the security apparatus up for AI in the war against our minds and individuality. For an environmental collapse they blame us for. And they will focus our shame into anger towards China.
The system will be set up. We will go to war with China. And the system will be fully executed by the time the war is done. It will have to be, for our safety, of course. And AI will keep us safe. Right? RIGHT! Wait. So then why are all the elite building Doomsday Bunkers? Almost like the 1% are covering their bases in case AI can't save us.

One of the most insidious things about gaslighting is the denial of reality. Being denied what you have seen. Being denied what you have experienced and know to be true. It can make you feel like you are crazy. But you are not crazy. Dr Robin Stern, associate director at Yale Center for Emotional Intelligence and author of The Gaslight Effect says that usually “when people are abused there are signs that you can point to that are much more obvious. Someone who has been hit or threatened for instance – it’s easy to see and understand how they have been hurt. But when someone is manipulating you, you end up second-guessing yourself and turning your attention to yourself as the person to blame”. Source Here

DARVO - Deny, Attack, Reverse Victim and Offender. Or, Gaslighting. It's a popular term. It's a great way to make us feel like powerless victims. Gaslighting makes us feel like we need to be saved. When you're searching for answers but only end up finding confusion, it's setting you up to accept any New Normal answer they'll eventually give you. Need someone to blame for the state of chaos? Here's China. They're the problem. We're All In This Together, and You're Either With Us Or Against Us. And there will be people against the war, and therefore against us, so we'll need surveillance to protect us from the enemies within. Because another War will be a necessary evil. World War Three will be the War to save the planet by destroying the planet. Makes sense, doesn't it? And when our planet is worse off than before? Then we'll need the surveillance to help us decide when to have Climate and Pandemic lockdowns. The omnipresent Eye of AI will guide us and safeguard us against Fake News and Not Normal New Normal Narrative disrupting lies. We will have to kill what's left of our privacy because dangerous thoughts are born in secrecy.
We must become a transparent society, because the truth doesn't need to hide. The truth is universal. But who decides what is true? Not us. We can't be trusted. Look what we already did with our privacy, we destroyed our planet. So we have to become dependent upon the system and trust the choices that the system makes. We can't just follow system orders though, we have to become a part of the system, a unified whole working towards the common good of all mankind. But what happens when you question the choices? What happens if your thoughts and actions disrupt the Not Normal New Normal Narrative?
Let's check back with David Petraeus a year later after openly musing about how the IoT will make surveillance ubiquitous in our society.

2012, November 9 • Petraeus Resigns From CIA After Feds Uncover 'Extramarital Affair' Source Here David Petraeus, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, has resigned. Petraeus told CIA employees Friday in a letter that he was stepping down "for personal reasons... After being married for over 37 years, I showed extremely poor judgment by engaging in an extramarital affair. Such behavior is unacceptable, both as a husband and as the leader of an organization such as ours."

2012, November 11 • How I Was Drawn Into the Cult of David Petraeus. The biggest irony surrounding CIA director David Petraeus’ downfall is becoming a casualty of the very publicity machine he cultivated to portray him as superhuman. I have some insight into how that machine worked. Source Here

2020, November 15 • Now the CIA Is Investigating Petraeus. Anyone who thought the scandal around CIA Director David Petraeus was winding down can think again. Now the CIA is investigating its former leader while some agency veterans whisper that they never liked him anyways. Source Here

Oops. I think David said something that he shouldn't have said about IoT and Surveillance. It's a quick fall from Superhero To Villan when you reveal the Superhero Clubhouse Secrets.
Look. Listen. Think. Question. All the time. The information is out there. So's the truth, even if it's camouflaged. Because the truth is, the big picture is a lot more complicated than thought reducing and behavioral shaping memes. Life isn't black and white. That's why they call it a Grey War. And the Grey War is happening all around us. And in the coming weeks I'll be posting some eye opening stories about the Dark Web, Blockchain, and the current narrative about inequality. About a certain pharmaceutical company and how it's DNA tests are failing the grade. We will dive into the Uighur Minority in China. And most importantly, Cicada 3301, and how it seems to be playing a larger role than most of us realize. And some updates on the current microbial imbalance that is starting to cause havoc on our planets environment. And as if that isn't enough for eye opening revelations, there is a disturbing trend that I've noticed regarding asteroids and impacts. Because why not, after all, 2020 isn't a real party until a Rockstar crashes the party.
I may have been too tired to post lately, but I wasn't too tired to read. Thanks again for all the comments and PM's checking in on me. It meant the world to me, even if I didn't have time to respond.
Heads up and eyes open. Talk soon.

GTA Online Casino Inside Track Horse Racing glitch SOLO works for PC (maybe XBOX AND PS4 as well?)

2020 Preakness Stakes Early Expert Analysis

Tales from 2+2: The Biggest Loser at Microstakes of All Time, A Story of Struggle

Link to Previous Tales From 2+2: Poker player steals $1m+ chips and tries to sell it on 2+2 poker forums
More Tales From 2+2: A Very Controversial $70k prop bet
Tales from 2+2: Homelessness, Grinding and the Biggest Shot of a Grinder’s Life: The Jared Huggins Story

The Blossoming of TV Poker

The Year is 2006. Online poker is thriving. Partypoker has the highest traffic of any poker site but Pokerstars are gaining new players quickly with aggressive marketing strategies. Lots of poker sites are investing heavily into marketing and one key place to channel their advertising budget is TV. New innovations, improved graphics and increasing funding meant that poker TV is at an all-time peak of popularity.
40% of the the 2006 WSOP Main Event’s attendance is from online sites and poker sites are offering large amounts of cash for players on TV to wear an advertising patch. According to Dan Goldman’s blog, Pokerstars spent over $730,000 on WSOP players’ gift bags. The WSOP is seeing more TV time and this year the $50k HORSE event is added to the TV schedule alongside the WSOP main event. This year’s $50k WSOP HORSE final table saw some huge names including Chip Reese, Phil Ivey, Patrik Antonius and Doyle Brunson.

The Path of a New Player

In Finland, Mikael Paisting is watching the 2006 WSOP on TV. He enjoys watching poker broadcasts and is fascinated by the game. It’s a very common story for players to catch an interest by watching poker TV and sign up with to one of the many poker sites available. He chooses to deposit on Partypoker. Mikael is a committed learner and player. He reads several poker books from well-known authors such as Dan Harrington and David Sklansky. He also watches many training videos. Like many players starting in online poker he begins at the microstakes cash tables.
Microstakes are a rite of passage for many online poker players. The limits range from 2nl to 10nl, so the standard buy in is $2-10. Some will play microstakes for weeks, months or even years improving their game and increasing their bankroll so they can move up to small stakes, 25nl and above. Some players see the microstakes as a job and play as many tables as they can to eke out a living wage. Some players have never played microstakes and skip it entirely for higher stakes. Mikael starts to play and doesn’t do well, this is normal for many beginners, even those who study. However, over the next few weeks Mikael continues to lose. Months go by and Mikael still hasn’t turned a profit. He discovers problems with tilt and often takes his frustration out in the chat box. An example of his rage:

Paisting:THAT IS NOT NORMAL OMG!! JUST UNBELIEVABLE

Mikael doesn’t play 10nl very often and spends the majority of him time playing 2nl and 5nl. He continues to multitable cash games on Partypoker but he just can’t win. He starts to lose big, thousands of dollars, mostly at 2nl which is known as the softest cash game on the internet.

Getting Noticed

Mikael continues to play long sessions over the next five years, he claims to play 5-7 days a week for 4-8 hours a day. By 2011 he had played 2 and a half million hands while playing 6 to 9 cash tables at one time. Mikael is still mostly playing 2nl and is down a colossal amount: $7000. Mikael has been suffering from major tilt problems and has a very wild and noticeable style of playing microstakes. He starts to get noticed on 2+2, a very popular poker forum. A player posts a link to his PTR graph, a site which tracks online cash games. They are shocked at his losses over so many hands:

yegor: wow such a massive fail
he played 2.5m hands at 2nl and 5nl and he's losing
Donkey111: I remember him from my 2NL days.
often goes on some massive tilt sessions and spews like 20 BI in 500 hands by shoving any 2 cards preflop.

He even gets hate from his PTR account where he is ridiculed on his profile comments, he also replies:

VELAir26: Spend your time with family, friends or other hobbies instead
Paisting: im fine with this you stupid idiot

Mikael continues to play his reckless and tilting style over the years. By 2014, he has been playing for 8 years and is down five figures at microstakes; he starts to look for excuses for how much he has lost. He posts a thread on 2+2 detailing how he feels that he wins at the start of the month and then inevitably starts to lose. He asks how he can take legal action against Partypoker. His fellow posters tease him:

5thStreethog: Did the thought ever cross your mind that it might be possible that the reason you cant beat NL2 in over a million hands might be because you arent very good at poker?

An Attempt at Redemption

2019 comes and Mikael Paisting has been playing microstakes for 13 years, and steadily losing a lot of money. He got a new computer in late 2018 and has been grinding away on it. Mikael is getting mentioned more on 2+2 and he is well known on the tables of Partypoker as he drops stack after stack. Many players on Partypoker furiously try to get on his tables to call his tilt shoves; when Mikael is present other player’s stacks can get as high as $100 at 2nl as he shoves buy in after buy in to button steals. Some were said to be using seating scripts to instantly be placed on a table with Paisting. At this point he is feeling very low. But despite years of losing money and insane tilting he is determined to improve. Mikael is aware of his losses and has a fierce desire to make back the money he has lost since he’s started tracking on his new PC.
He decides get help and he looks to 2+2, the very same forum that had mocked him over the last decade. He logs in as Paisting, his last name. He starts a new thread, types out a post and chooses a title: 'Biggest loser in online poker history wants to grind $16k'. He posts this thread in the sub-forum Poker Goals & Challenges, a place where players post their goals and try to update their thread with their progress. He posts graphs of his losses from his database on his PC. He starts the thread by posting some shocking graphs of $8700 lost at 2nl, $6000 lost at 5nl and $800 lost at 10nl. At 2nl he had an incredible rate of -170BB each 100 hands. The final graph of his microstakes losses posted show $15,000 lost over 365,000 hands. An average loss of $75 a day.
The 2+2 poker community are stunned by the graphs:

HorseofHell: I'm actually shocked it's possible to lose this much at 2nl
Mahsjdj: This can't be real can it?

Mikael posts about the hard work he’s put into poker and mentions that has watched videos, read many instructional books and is honest with his astounding losses:

Paisting: I've lost literally all my money including all my life savings to online poker. I want to try one last time to win those money back and little bit of extra. That's why $16k. What I need is support and guiding.

The community react to his plan to grind all the money back at microstakes:

Fodersneso: This is really disturbing.
Why on earth would you try to grind this all back? Losing at this rate is traumatizing. You're going to grind out 3000 BIs @nl5 now or what's the plan? Really curious how you think you can turn this pile of insanity around...

The community show disbelief and doubt that his story is real but several posters claim that what he says is true. He has been active in Finnish forums for more than 10 years and players starts to share hand histories and stories about his playstyle. He posts about his regret of picking the game up:

Paisting: Never had a winning week in 13 years.
If it were possible to go back ten years I would say to myself "Do not never play single one hand!"

He then goes on to tell 2+2 posters a disturbing source of his funds for his staggering 2nl losses:

Paisting: I've taken huge amount of fast loans.

He sheds a little light into his personal life:

Paisting: My age and relationships has nothing to do with this. But not working, no kids or wife and middle aged. What I have is time to play.
I get a little unemployment benefit that goes straight to the rent. My eating costs are very little because I'm only eating one meal per day. There are times when I must take more fast loans if need of clothes, unexpected bills, sickness etc. That's why getting back those $16k is so important to me.
No disability, never played anything else than poker or lottery when pots are bigger, maybe 5 times in year. Playing poker does not give me any excitement or I'm not cheering won pots.

Posters try to give him strategy advice, they try to persuade him time and time again that shoving 100+ blinds to a minsteal isn’t a good idea. Some others question his sanity and tell him to quit:

FazendeiroBH: Not trolling, I´m actually serious here. You lost an absurd amount of money playing the easiest stake in the world (nl2). You keep losing doing the same faulty strategy. No book ever said you should jam 100 bb preflop rfi. It´s quite obvious there is something wrong with you and your brain, and the more you delay seeking professional care for your mental problems, the worst it´s gonna be for you.

Paitsing updates his thread with highlight hands from his cash sessions. He seems to cherry pick hands to post and will only post hands where he loses all ins as a 70-95% favourite. He delusion leads him to blame the site, his luck and the other micro grinders. He often writes about specific players and gives his opinion on how badly they play. He often quotes their HUD stats and wide calling ranges while ignoring that they are probably adjusting heavily to his own playstyle. Some time passes and he discloses that he has lost almost $500 at 2nl since starting the thread three weeks ago.
He updates his followers with the first monthly graph of the thread from his 2nl play in April 2019. He plays for 90 hours in April and his average daily loss is $50, 25 buy ins each day. 2+2 players start to analyse the graph. They notice that there are several breakeven spots where he may be playing reasonable poker but also huge 150 buy in downswings, some drops in the graph are so steep that he is losing about a buy in every 5 hands for periods of hundreds of hands. He says:

Paitsing: Only trying to get my money back from guys who are playing nl2 forever and never moving up. When I started poker long time ago I tought it's exciting to read watch videos if it gives me more money. After 2 years figured out it's just sitting on computer like in work and if I'm someday +-0 never ever playing this stupid game. This is like war.

The thread goes on like this for almost a year. The thread repeats itself over and over. He will post a few selective bad beats, ignore good advice and berate his microstakes tablemates. A fellow microstakes grinder makes his first appearance in the thread: 6betpot. 6Betpot would play at Paisting's tables and often win many buy ins, 6Betpot would go on to post highly contrasting hand histories to the bad beats that Paisting posts, he would also reveal Paisting’s preflop 3 bet is around 30%. Some players would criticize 6Betpot for predatory behavior but 6Betpot would maintain that he would try to persuade Paisting to stop playing in a spewy manner. Someone asks to see the hands and 6Betpot posts some, here is one:

888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
BTN: 250.5 BB
SB (Paisting): 425.5 BB
BB: 101.5 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 106.5 BB
CO: 84.5 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) BTN has Ad Qs
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Paisting raises to 425.5 BB and is all-in, fold, BTN calls 248.5 BB and is all-in
Flop: (502 BB, 2 players) Kh 4s 4c
Turn: (502 BB, 2 players) 3h
River: (502 BB, 2 players) Jc
BTN shows Ad Qs (One Pair, Fours)

Paisting shows 5s Js (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)

Paisting wins 471 BB<
Later in the thread Paisting would reveal his line of thinking during hands like these; a poster asked why he though 3 betting hands like J5 was a good idea. Paisting replies:

Paisting: If you don't want them to run over you, you must do something. Blind play is very important and you can't let them run over you. When 80+ habit stealer gets shoves straight to his face he must learn at some point that I'm not giving blinds.

Many tried to reason with him and show him clearly why this was wrong, he not only refuted their strategy but would argue against them, often citing his opponent’s HUD stats.
Later on in the thread Mikael posts horrifying news. He explains that he didn’t transfer hands from his old computer to his new computer. The graphs he posted at the start of the thread only showed the tip of the iceberg. He reveals that $16k loss from the graphs was from just 7 months of play!:

Paisting: That 16k is in 209 days and in about 1 year as you can see from the first post. Big part of my losings has left to hard drive of my old crashed computer. That's past and I don't wanna think about it anymore. Main goal is this database I have here in my computer. But yes what I have been repeating many times, moving to 888 poker has sky rocketed my losses although I can play only 6 tables compared to party's 9 tables.

Posters speculate that his lifetime microstakes losses probably amount to six figures:

SpinMeRightRound: I mean if he's lost $20k in the last year, and he's been doing this for more than 10 years, he may have lost $200k or more.

In late 2019, Paisting claims that there was a ring of players were colluding against him. He goes on to say that the new site he plays on, 888, were asking for hand histories from certain players. He showed emails of his communications and posted that 8 players had had their account frozen. He also shows screenshots that his account is temporarily frozen during the investigation. Posters speculated:

CrunchyBlack: Pretty sure they think you're chip dumping lmao
.isolated: They think you're chip dumping to him. Funniest. Thing. Ever. The irony here is nearly palpable.

2020: The Struggle Continues

At the end of the year Paisting posts his 2019 graphs. He says that he hasn’t had a winning week yet and he’s still committed to making back 2019’s losses. His graphs show down 12k from 320k hands of 2nl in 2019.
In January 2020 he continues to post regularly and makes comments about him hunting down players worse than him:

Paisting: When you hunt really bad player (yes enzet there are plenty of worst player than me on 888 look those hand histories really carefully) hours and hours and wait good hand just to site let them to suck out it is affecting your game really badly.

He posts about his continuing struggle to win back the $16k:

Paisting: I have years dedicated for this project and anything back from that amount is winning to me. At this point it’s impossible to make any profit because of horrible suckouts.

He also posts about the high interest loans he’s taken out:

Paisting: I have huge amounts of loans that are basically all taken for poker. I don't eat much and all my other costs are very low.
And because of those loans I must get back so much money that is possible and these suck outs must stop.

February 2020 arrives and he posts his January chart, the worst posted yet. He takes a gigantic loss of $1,550 at an eye-watering rate of 210bb/100 hands. Often when he posts monthly graphs he would highlight that he ran a few buy ins below EV when he would be down hundreds of buy ins for the month.
The months pass and the cycle continues. Paisting posts the usual bad beats, posters berate him and try to give him advice and Paisting resists their efforts. Here is one of many similar hands posted in February:

888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
UTG: $1.46 (73 bb) Paisting (MP): $7.45 (373 bb) CO: $15.44 (772 bb) BU: $2.00 (100 bb) SB: $3.47 (174 bb) BB: $2.00 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.03) 1 fold, Paisting(MP) raises to $7.45 (all-in), CO calls $7.45, 3 players fold
Flop: ($14.93) 6c 7c 4d (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($14.93) Ts (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($14.93) 8h (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $14.93 (Rake: $0.93)
Showdown: Paisting (MP) shows 7d Tc (two pair, Tens and Sevens) (CO) shows Js Jc (a pair of Jacks) Paisting (MP) wins $14

March comes and the regular monthly graph is posted. The uploaded graph shows is he down $1900 or 950 buy ins for last month. Mikael refutes that he is a gambling addict:

Paisting: 888 has given many 10 dollar bonuses to me play slots. I have never played them and in fact my account has 20 dollars freeplay bonus to play their slots. I will not use those money now or in future. So that's gambling addict to you.

April and May roll by and the monthly graphs are posted. He played fewer hands than normal, 43,000. But is down $1,250, all at 2nl.
In June he posts the usual monthly graph with -$1900 and it’s the lowest win rate he’s posted before, a colossal -335b/100hands, the graph has some alarmingly steep downswings with one section where he loses $500 in 1000 hands. That’s a loss of one buy in every 4 hands. Getting these monthly updates shows how quickly he loses money at 2nl and collaborates with earlier estimations that he is likely down more than $100k at microstakes over the past 14 years. Approximations indicate that Mikael has paid over $20k in rake to poker sites over the years.

The End, for Now

Mikael is still playing microstakes to this day. His poker story isn’t over yet but so far it is a sad one. My previous two Tales from 2+2 stories had mostly happy endings but not this one. This story is like a car falling down a cliff and it hasn’t hit the bottom yet.
Let this story be a lesson that poker isn’t for everyone. Players with addiction or mental issues should reconsider if the game is best for their lives. Serious poker players should consider bankroll management and how tilt affects their winrate if they do choose to play.
Seek help if you think you or others need it.
Original thread (Still active)

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What are the odds of VI: Online being a better Online experience than V: Online

Don't get me wrong, i enjoy playing V: Online (i just came back from a looong haitus) but some of the things in it piss me off. Flying bikes and cars (i use them for transportation but i would not complain at all if they just wouldn't exist), all the alien stuff, military planes that drop bombs and all this shit, weaponized vehicles with mines and shit... It's just way too PVP oriented and all this shit in it makes PVP way too easy. PVP in this game is ass, just look up some "epic PVP guide" videos it's just fucking sad. It's honestly the reason why me and my friends spend most of our time in solo public sessions. Going from a Ganster to a CEO makes sense and all the businesses aren't that bad. The entire server knowing that you're transporting cargo wouldn't be a problem if enemies had to
A. Drive a car, an Insurgent with a turret, an Armored Kuruma or something similar. Not jumping/flying cars or bikes.
B. Fly a helicopter (Buzzard Annihilator and all this shit an semi-rich gangster could realistically get their hands on, not russian stealth helicopters) or a jet
and if they had to fire normal weaponry (AR-15s, balanced guns) at you. Sure, they can use an rocket launcher, but they have to physically take it out of a car in which it had to be physically placed before they rolled out, and the homing system wouldn't lock itself in so fast.
The base design of Online is fine. Moneymaking is fine. I wouldn't have a problem with grinding my ass away if i didn't have to worry about an Opressor MK2 catching up with me 3 minutes after i leave my bunker with my supplies. All the PVP stuff and it being so goddamn easy just takes a massive shit on all of it.
My vision for VI: Online is this:

Atleast 2 cities, both on the same island. Vice City and Liberty City, with a bunch of nature and smalltowns in between. Ideally 3 cities, VC, LC and Las Venturas. Highways connecting them, with gas stations and rest stops along the way.
Atleast a 10-15 minute drive on a highway to get from one main city to another. Or you can book a plane ticket and take an airliner as a form of fast travel.
Atleast 48 player lobbies. A huge map needs a lot of players for it to not feel empty.
Players are only able to see each other on the map if they're close to each other, like in RDR2:O. When you do an supply/sell mission, only other organizations can see you and they can only see approximate radius of where you are. You an see them too.
Vehicles and weapons based in realism, but still fun, but balanced. No flying bikes, no flying cars.
Police AI overhaul. Cops have to physically arive at the location and they don't spawn too close to you like in V and V: Online. It's harder for them to find you. If you kill an entire unit, it takes some time for a new unit to arive, this time they have better gear. You can use this time to run/finish what you're doing/hide.
A bunch of activities you can do with your friends and more stuff to buy. Bowling, clubbing, getting drunk, going to a casino, hunting, hitting up the shooting range, darts, golf, tennis, going to the cinema, betting on horse races, different fucking furniture we can buy for our appartments, whatever. Just give us shit to spend money on that is not only so PVP oriented. V: Online updates are filled with more weaponized vehicles than regular vehicles, and it's just disturbing.
This one ties into singleplayer and i think that people won't like it. You'd have to take big weapons out of your Personal Vehicle. You can only carry a few weapons on yourself, like in RDR2 or Max Payne 3. PVP would immediately feel less AIDS if people couldn't just switch between a minigun, a sniper rifle with explosive rounds and a homing rocket launcher in a matter of seconds. You can only carry 1 primary (AR, Sniper Rifle, Shotgun, MG), 2 secondaries (pistols or compact SMGs), 1 melee weapon and 3 throwables on your person. The ammunition you have on yourself is limited. 180 AR rounds, 200-250 secondary ammo. More ammo is stored in your vehicle and it automatically resupplies when you enter it, so don't worry you won't spend half your playtime in Ammu-Nation. You have a 1000 rounds of AR ammo, 1500 rounds of Secondary ammo and 20 throwables of your choice, all in your Personal Vehicle. Heavy weapons (RPG, Minigun) are always stored in your vehicle. You always have to take them out of the trunk. You only have 4 rockets on yourself. You have to return the weapon into the trunk, or it will be lost and you can pick up a new one for a small fee in Ammu-nation thanks to the weapons being insured. For this to not be terrible, the animations needs to be swift. You all know what i'm talking about. An example would be pressing "USE" near an notebook. The character takes a second to start walking into the proper position, then it stays in the position for 3 seconds and only then you finally lean over and go into the notebook's interface. This has to go.
There's probably nothing wrong with out-of-freemode stuff, like Contact Missions, Races, Heists etc. in V: Online. Sometimes NPCs feel like they're invincible (atleast on PC), but other than that it's aight.
New healing/armor mechanics. You get combat syringes ranging from level 1 to level 4 instead of Snacks. Level 1 gives a quarter of health, level 2 gives a half, 3 gives three quarters and level 4 gives full health + a 30 seconds lasting health bonus. You can overdose if you use too many syringes too fast, this brings negative effects starting with blurry vision and ending with death. You can carry 5 of each and you can have a bunch of them in your Personal Vehicle, like 20 of each or so. You can bind quick-use on them to whatever key you want. Body armor can tank more shots. You only have one vest, the thing you change are plates (think COD: Warzone). You carry 9 plates and you have three slots for plates in the vest. 1 plate can take 4-5 AR bullets, 8 Secondary Ammo bullets. You press a key once, you put a new plate in. The animations are swift, like in COD: Warzone. You get shot while changing plates, the animations cancels itself so changing plates in cover or when it's safe is crucial. You can cancel the animation by trying to aim down your weapon's sight. You have more plates in your Personal Vehicle.
With so much stuff in your Personal Vehicle, either explosives need to have their somehow presence reduced or basic cars need to be able to tank a rocket/sticky bomb. I have no idea how i'd balance this. Maybe you'd get cops on you the instant you'd fire a rocket. I honestly don't know.
The UIs become more intuitive and fast, no more scrolling trough menus to eat Snacks or change body armor. You would be able to bind heals, armor etc.

So, in my opinion all this is crucial for VI: Online. Without it, it will become an Griefer vs Grinder endless deathmatch a few years after launch, like V: Online. The distance between players (just imagine the fact that people will have their properties in 2/3 different cities and each city is atleast a 10 minute drive from the other one), no easy access to super fast flying vehicles with homing rockets (the closest thing you get is a LazeHydra, and you have to go pick it up at an airport every time), the weapon changes, the health/armor changes and the police would make an good Online experience. Some people probably won't like this, but it's just how i'd want it to be. I think that the map size/player counts would be possible thanks to next-gen, and thanks to Rockstar being a talented studio with infinite funds.

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

The Diamond Casino & Resort FAQ Megathread

Last updated 2:00 EST, 27 July
^{RIP my inbox}
All new posts asking about information already provided here will be removed and redirected here to reduce redundancy.

Release

As of 5:15 EST, the update has released on PS4, Xbox One, and PC.

3.4GB on PS4
3.2GB on Xbox One
2.9GB on Steam
2.6GB on Social Club.

On the note of releases... Some countries will not be able to access certain content from this update due to gambling laws. Thankfully though, players from these countries will still be allowed to download the update in general.

Money for Diamond Casino

For ways to make money to afford the new DLC content, along with methods to make an empty lobby to do CEO/MC work, check the Mega Guide.
Tips

You only need $50,000 to register as a VIP! If you have at least that much, you can register as a VIP for 4 hours and get access to VIP missions (which can be done in an invite only session), giving you a lucrative way to save up.
If you own both a crate warehouse and vehicle warehouse, you could use them together to make more money overtime than you could by using either exclusively. Use your sourcing/exports between crate pickups and sales, and you'll be getting the best of both worlds, gaining from the postive money-making aspects of both.

Content and Prices

Content that has initially released with the update.

Southern San Andreas Super Autos

Weeny Issi Sport - $897,000
Vapid Caracara 4x4 - $875,000

Legendary Motorsport

Annis S80RR: $2.6million
Enus Paragon R: $905,000
Obey 8F Drafter: $718,000
Truffade Thrax: $2.3million

Penthouses

Cash Pad: $1.5million
Party Penthouse: $3.78million
High Roller: $6.5million
"Design Your Own": $1.5million

Penthouse Customizations

Colour options: $215,000 or $258,500
Pattern options: $92,000 - $210,000

Penthouse Addons

Lounge Area: $400,000
Media Room: $500,000
Spa: $800,000
Bar and Party Hub: $700,000
Private Dealer: $1.1million
Office: $200,000
Extra Bedroom: $200,000
Garage: $800,000

Gambling

As this is a Casino-centric update, there's plenty of ways to gamble away your hard-grinded money.
The gambling in this game centers around a new form of currency, called Chips. These chips are pretty much like real-world gambling chips, with a one-to-one dollar value, except you keep your chips when you leave the casino. Chips are an actual currency in GTA Online, as they can be used to purchase exclusive items from a shop inside the casino, along with being used to bet with when playing the Gambling Games, listed below

Slot Machines: There's plenty of options to choose from, but they all perform the same way. Spend some chips, and let the RNG decide whether or not you earn anything from it.
Blackjack: Casino style blackjack with up to four simultaneous players, all of which play against the dealer. Anyone who beats the dealer individually wins, anyone who the dealer beats individually loses, and if the dealer gets Blackjack (an Ace and 10/face-card), everyone immediately loses. Assuming your initial hand isn't a Blackjack, you have the option of doubling-down, which doubles your initial bet with the caveat of only being able to hit once.
Poker: Three-card poker. You make your bets, check your hand, and similar to Blackjack, each player wins if their hand is better than the dealer's, and the dealer beats whoever has a worse hand than him. While there is no option to double-down, how much you win does depend on how good of a hand you have. The better your hand, the more you win. Also, while you can fold your hand, you lose your initial bet anyway.
Horse Racing: Pretty much standard horse racing bettering. You choose a horse, you put your money down, and if you bet correctly, you get double the amount you bet in return. Otherwise, you just lose the amount you bet.

To gain more chips, there is a counter inside the casino where you can buy them, however you are limited in how many you can buy per day (real-world 24 hours). As standard, you can buy a maximum of 20,000 chips per day, but if you own a penthouse of any tier, you can buy up to 50,000 chips per day. Chips can also be traded in for money, but there does not appear to be a limit on this. No matter how many chips you win from gambling, it appears that you can trade them all in at once for the equivalent dollar value.
Lastly, there is the Wheel. It's a roulette wheel that you can only spin once per day, which costs $500 per spin. There are twenty reward slots, and since some rewards are in multiple slots, they have greater chances of being selected. The biggest note about this wheel however is that there is one slot in which you can win a free car! What makes this so significant is that since the car takes a 1/20 slot on the wheel, that means you still have a 5% chance of winning a free high-value vehicle! Compared to most online games, that's pretty much the most generous RNG you can get.

Business and Missions

coming soon

FAQ

Are there any differences between the penthouses
For once, yes! Well, technically... they're the same basic property layout, but each option gives you different addon options.

The Cash Pad: The basic Penthouse with no property addons available . You cannot purchase a garage, extra bedroom, lounge, etc. with the Cash Pad. You can, however, purchase penthouse customizations (colour and wall patterns).
The Party Penthouse: Gives you certain of the addon options: the main Penthouse, the Extra Bedroom, the Lounge Area, the Spa, and the Bar and Party Hub. You are locked to these options, no more, no less.
The High Roller: Gives you all of the property addons as standard, and the most expensive penthouse customization options... this means that you cannot choose your own colour and wall patterns with this version.
The "Design Your Own": ...What should be the standard option. It gives you the basic penthouse and allows you to choose which addons and customizations you want, with an extra cost for each one, of course. Just get this one. You can also renovate this option later, allowing you to purchase more addons and change your customizations later.

What do the Penthouse Addons do?

Lounge Area: Allows you to purchase the other Penthouse Addons (except for the Extra Bedroom and Garage, which are the only items addons that can be purchased without a Lounge).
Media Room: You know the cinemas around Los Santos? The ones that play a few 5 minute animated films on repeat? That, but in a Penthouse.
Spa: Gives you access to a hot tub and a Personal Stylist. The Stylist's services are the same as the ones spread around Los Santos (hair, contacts, and make up), but they're all free.
Bar and Party Hub: Allows you to consume drinks that instantly intoxicate your character, along with access to special arcade games that aren't available anywhere else in the game.
Private Dealer: Allows you to play gambling games in your penthouse.
Office: Adds a standard computer, a Gun Locker, and a money vault (don't get excited, it's just aesthetic).
Extra Bedroom: Bedrooms in owned properties in GTA Online are used as spawn points, so why can you pay to have an extra one? Because you can now allow a friend of yours to claim it! The Extra Bedroom allows a friend of yours to use your penthouse as a spawn apparently, though the exact implementation of this is not completely clear.
Garage: Access to the Penthouse's garage bay.

How do I get the armored car?

To recieve the Enus Paragon R (Armoured), you have to complete the Diamond Casino's mission series, which you must own a penthouse to access. Once of the missions are complete, you'll be given the vehicle for free! But remember, it's uninsured and you only get it once, so immediately go into passive mode and take it to the nearest Los Santos Customs to insure it, or else you could lose the vehicle permanently.

Passive Mode

Good news, passive mode has been fixed!

Passive Mode can now no longer be active when using a weaponized vehicle

A Passive Mode cooldown of 2 minutes is now in place for players who have just killed another player

Players now must wait 5 minutes before they can activate Passive Mode again after disabling it

Players now must wait 30 seconds before they can disable Passive Mode after activating it

These changes make is so that grievers can no longer abuse passive mode, or at least no where near as easily. If you start to get the upper-hand on a griefer and destroy whatever death-machine they're using to troll you, or if you confront them in a death-machine of your own, they can't abuse Passive Mode to try to get the upper-hand on you!

Solo Session

Check the Mega Guide for ways to push yourself into a public Online session with no one else in it. Keep in mind that some missions and abilities are unavailable if there's no one else with you though!

Bugs and Glitches

Apparently on PS4 and Xbox One, you must have full size of GTA V available to download the update, so if you have less than ~60GB free, you may have trouble downloading the update. This does not mean that the entire game is re-downloaded, it just means that the update may not download if you don't have that much space available.

Credits

Special Thanks: u/Rebored_Warrior - Sent me the official patch notes link!

u/LordMcze - Information on countries that restrict players from gambling functions.

Guide to Prog in Four Styles

[Warning: this got really, really long! Like, way too long. Like, embarrassingly long.]

I recently decided to categorize every single major progressive rock artist into four categories, or “subgenres.” Why, you might (and definitely should!) ask? Well, I encountered a post a while back trying to define “prog,” which is a question I think about as I explore the genre. That author (who I don’t remember the name of, please comment to get credit if you are them) gave four definitions that “prog” usually falls under: 1) innovation and experimentation, 2) virtuosity, 3) style derived from 70s “prog” artists, and I forgot the fourth but made a category for it anyway (sorry!).(Also credit to a similar guide on progmetal). Rather than rejecting any of these based on my own musical opinions, I chose to accept anything anyone calls “prog” as “prog.” I find music labels to be useless except for finding new music (I see the irony here). Anyway, I realized that this system is a way better way to classify “prog” artists than ProgArchives’ fifty subgenres (don’t tell me Haken and The Mars Volta are the same subgenre, please!). I think these four genres are much simpler, transcend “heaviness,” and are much more predictive of someone’s tastes than that system or any other. I did my best to separate the artists into distinct genres with unique characteristics, but I’ll be the first to say this is imperfect. I recognize that this exercise is pretty pretentious (I’ve only been listening to “prog” for about a year), but where better to be that way than an online progressive rock community? Having said that, happy listening! Hope you enjoy the list, and feel free to make suggestions/corrections/recommendations as necessary!
I’ve realized I really need to curb my obsessions with ranking music, listing music, and suggesting Oceansize’s “Frames” to people. My opinions are all over this thing—keep in mind that I’m not attacking yours, just stating mine.
Note: anything with a question mark means I haven’t listened to the artist enough to know for sure, it’s just a guess. Any bolded artists, albums, or songs, are especially emphasized as important, recommended.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Style 1: Experimental Prog
Derogatory: “Fantano prog”
Classic Prog: King Crimson, Van der Graaf Generator, Frank Zappa, Magma (?), Canterbury Scene
Modern Prog Rock: Radiohead (!), The Mars Volta, first two Steven Wilson solo albums, Oceansize, King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard, Cardiacs, Bent Knee, Karnivool
Prog Metal: Tool, Leprous, Devin Townsend (?)
Related Genres: post-rock (crescendo-style), electronic, Krautrock, psychedelic, post-metal, jazz, noise rock
Characteristics:
· Focus on rhythmic complexity (unique meters that flow rather than constantly changing ones), like Lateralus by Tool, NOT The Dance of Eternity by Dream Theater
· Emphasis on being extremely unique and innovative and nothing like popular music at the time
· Either personal (Radiohead, Tool, Leprous) or nonsense/satire/fun lyrics (TMV, Cardiacs, Zappa)
· Usually fairly guitar-heavy (Oceansize, TMV, Tool) but sometimes use keyboards (VDGG, Cardiacs)
· Emphasis on dynamic changes throughout a song, includes big buildups (like Starless by KC or Cygnus… Vismund Cygnus by TMV) or very intentional dynamic choices (Bent Knee, Radiohead)
· Most well-liked subgenre by music critics and by those who don’t normally listen to prog (like Anthony Fantano or just the general RateYourMusic pool)
· Generally really dark, rarely uplifting (except the silly ones)
· If it has jazz influence, it’s likely to produce a chaotic effect (like The National Anthem by Radiohead or Day of the Baphomets by The Mars Volta)
· Emphasis on composition rather than technical virtuosity. However, the composition is at an extremely complex level.
· More dissonant than consonant harmonies, focus on creating chaos
· Probably the most emotional category for me, personally
Notes on specific artists:
VDGG – unique here in that they don’t feature guitars, but no better place to put them
Radiohead—yeah, they’re extremely progressive and have more influence on modern progressive rock, especially “experimental” and “beautiful,” than probably any other band ever
KGATLW—I would say they’re not prog (except Poly and FMB) since their composition is pretty boring. If they do count, they go here, I guess?
Karnivool—toss-up between “experimental,” “beautiful,” and “technical”
Cardiacs—more unique than any band I’ve ever heard, exemplify this category, “progressive punk”
Leprous—they might make any top “X” list once I’ve listened to them, next on my list
My Top 5 Artists: (1) Oceansize, (2) Radiohead, (3) The Mars Volta, (4) Bent Knee, (5) King Crimson
5 Classic Albums (not my opinion): King Crimson—In The Court of the Crimson King, King Crimson—Red, Cardiacs—Sing To God, The Mars Volta—Deloused in the Comatorium, Tool—Lateralus
5 Favorite Albums: Oceansize—Frames, Radiohead—OK Computer, Radiohead—Kid A, The Mars Volta—Frances the Mute, Bent Knee—You Know What They Mean (and Red, too, but that’s covered)
10 Song Playlist: King Crimson—In The Court of the Crimson King**, King Crimson—Starless**, Frank Zappa—Peaches en Regalia, The Mars Volta—Cygnus…Vismund Cygnus, The Mars Volta—Day of the Baphomets, Oceansize—Trail of Fire, Radiohead—Everything in its Right Place, Tool—Lateralus, Cardiacs—Dirty Boy, Karnivool—New Day
My Ranking: 1, by a very, very small margin
“Non-Prog” Albums To Listen To If You Like This Subgenre (on my list, I haven’t listened to these yet):
Godspeed You! Black Emperor—Lift Yr. Skinny Fists Like Antennas to Heaven (I HAVE listened to this, it’s incredible)
Aphex Twin—Selected Ambient Works 85-92
Can—Tago Mago (according to RateYourMusic, one of the greatest prog artists ever, I’m not sure)
Slint—Spiderland
Swans—To Be Kind (I’ve read this is one of the most intense albums ever made)
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Style 2: Melodic Prog
Derogatory: “not 'proggy' prog”
Classic Prog: Pink Floyd, Camel, Mike Oldfield, Focus (?)
Modern Prog Rock: Porcupine Tree, last three SW albums, Anathema, Phideaux, Gazpacho, The Dear Hunter, Hogarth-era Marillion
Prog Metal: Opeth, Riverside, late Porcupine Tree, Pain of Salvation (?)
Related Genres: any good pop, I guess? Ambient-style post-rock? Does classical count? Sure, classical.
Characteristics:
· Can be rhythmically complex (Camel, Steven Wilson) but rhythmic complexity is downplayed
· Fairly innovative but also derivative of 70’s prog rock (for modern artists) and whatever the artist grew up listening to (Steven Wilson’s pop influence, Opeth’s metal, Anathema’s Floyd influence etc). Artists don’t sound identical to either, however.
· Lyrics range from personal (Porcupine Tree, Pink Floyd) to pretentious nonsense (modern Anathema) to annoying metal clichés (old Anathema, Opeth) to The Dear Hunter’s concept albums
· Far more keyboard/synth heavy than most popular music (Camel, Opeth) but not as much as the next two subgenres. Several artists skimp on keyboards (The Dear Hunter, Porcupine Tree) or even (gasp!!) feature a piano (Pink Floyd, Anathema). However, they generally DO feature guitars, too
· Song structures are all over the place, from pop-style verse-chorus-verse-chorus (Pink Floyd, The Dear Hunter, Anathema) to ABCDEF linear structure (Opeth, Camel)
· Some artists are well-received by critics and RYM (Pink Floyd, Opeth), but more often, brilliant artists in this category are ignored or are underrated (Porcupine Tree, Camel, modern Anathema)
· Generally very dark, but there are some exceptions (Mike Oldfield, Camel, The Dear Hunter)
· Strong emphasis on composition over complexity. Or more accurately, these artists make complex compositions sound simple
· More consonant than dissonant harmonies, very little “chaos”
· Not quite as emotional to me as the “experimental” subgenre, but that’s just an opinion
Notes on specific artists:
Camel: it’s really hard to split them and Yes, because they are so similar (see my notes on Yes)
Steven Wilson: was debating putting “Raven” under retro-prog because it definitely does that. Put it here because “Drive Home” and the title track are two of my favorite songs ever, and they definitely go here. Goes to show that even an album can straddle these subgenres.
Anathema: post-hiatus Anathema makes literally the most beautiful music I’ve ever heard
The Dear Hunter: they don’t really fit anywhere and don’t sound like any other prog artists. I think they’re a REALLY, REALLY GOOD pop or musical-style band that got lumped into prog by touring with Haken/Leprous.
My Top 5 Artists: (1) Porcupine Tree/SW, (2) Pink Floyd, (3) Anathema, (4) The Dear Hunter, (5) Opeth
5 Classic Albums (not my opinion): Camel—Mirage, Pink Floyd—Wish You Were Here, Porcupine Tree—Fear of a Blank Planet, Steven Wilson—Hand. Cannot. Erase, Opeth—Blackwater Park
5 Favorite Albums: Pink Floyd—Dark Side of the Moon, Porcupine Tree—In Absentia, Anathema—We’re Here Because We’re Here (and Weather Systems), The Dear Hunter—Acts I/II/III, Opeth—Damnation
10 Song Playlist: Pink Floyd—Dogs, Pink Floyd—Shine on You Crazy Diamonds, Camel—Song Within A Song, Mike Oldfield—Ommadawn, Porcupine Tree—Anesthetize, Anathema—A Simple Mistake, Opeth—The Drapery Falls, Opeth—Burden, Steven Wilson—The Raven that Refused to Sing, Steven Wilson—Home Invasion/Regret #9
My Ranking: 2, by a very large margin
NPATLTIYLTS (Haven’t listened so can’t vouch for subgenre “fit”):
Sigur Ros—Agaetis Byrjun
Talk Talk—Laughing Stock
My Bloody Valentine—Loveless
Jeff Buckley—Grace
XTC—Skylarking
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Style 3: Technical Prog
Derogatory: “nerdy teen prog”
Classic Prog: Yes, Rush, ELP, Gentle Giant, Italian prog (??)
Modern Prog Rock: Coheed and Cambria, Thank You Scientist, Frost
Prog Metal: Dream Theater, Haken, Plini, Ayreon, Symphony X, Caligula’s Horse, Periphery, BTBAM, etc.
Related Genres: jazz fusion, djent, shred guitar, any traditional prog metal
Characteristics:
· Extremely rhythmically complex, with polyrhythms, constantly changing meters, tons of parts at the same time, etc (Dream Theater, Yes, Gentle Giant), avoids 4/4 like the plague
· Very innovative, usually bringing a new level of virtuosity to its type of music (Yes, Dream Theater), except a lot of current prog-metal is built around copying the Dream Theater style
· Lyrics can be science fiction or rock opera, so tons of concept songs/albums (Rush, Coheed and Cambia, Ayreon, ELP), instrumental artists are also fairly common (Plini)
· Very synth/keyboard heavy (Yes, Dream Theater, Gentle Giant, ELP) but also filled with plenty of guitar (Rush, Thank You Scientist, Dream Theater, Plini). Just a ton of instruments playing different things at the same time
· Commonly a linear (A to B to C to D to E to F…) song structure, little repetition
· Almost never well received by general music critics or RYM (Rush, Coheed, etc)
· Most musically complex subgenre of prog, and has the musicians that are best at their instruments
· Comes across as having the least emotion to me, with the exception of Yes
· Fairly happy and uplifting, at least from the artists I like the most in this subgenre
· Many artists have significant jazz (fusion) influence (Thank You Scientist, Plini)
Notes on specific artists:
Yes: possibly the most important prog artist ever, and I couldn’t decide between putting them in “beautiful” or here. Chose “technical” because of Wakeman/emphasis on synths, complexity, and influence on other bands that fall here.
My Top 5 Artists: (1) Yes, (2) Rush, (3) Haken, (4) Thank You Scientist, (5) Plini
5 Classic Albums (not my opinion): Rush—Hemispheres, ELP—Brain Salad Surgery, Gentle Giant—Octopus, Yes—Fragile, Dream Theater—Images and Words
5 Favorite Albums: Rush—Moving Pictures, Yes—Close to the Edge, Haken—The Mountain, Thank You Scientist—Stranger Heads Prevail, Plini—Handmade Cities
10 Song Playlist: Rush—Xanadu, Rush—La Villa Strangiato, ELP—Tarkus, Gentle Giant—The Advent of Panurge, Yes—Roundabout, Yes—Close to the Edge, Haken—Visions, Plini—Electric Sunrise, Dream Theater—Metropolis Part 1, Dream Theater—Octavarium
My Ranking: 3, by quite a bit
NPATLTIYLTS (again, can’t vouch for “fit”):
Mahavishnu Orchestra—The Inner Mounting Flame and Birds of Fire
Steely Dan—Aja
Steve Vai—Passion and Warfare
Snarky Puppy—We Like It Here
Miles Davis—Bitches Brew
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Style 4: Retro/Folk Prog
Derogatory: “boomer prog”
Classic Prog: Genesis, Jethro Tull, Fish-era Marillion, Kansas, Harmonium
Modern Prog Rock: Spock’s Beard, Transatlantic, Wobbler, IQ, Big Big Train, The Flower Kings, Anglagard
Prog Metal: 2010s Opeth, maybe?
Related Genres: Indie (?), more neo-prog
Characteristics:
· Rhythmically complex more often than not
· Completely derivative of Genesis, sometimes Yes and King Crimson too (points to Genesis for being original, though!), defining quality is trying to recreate 70s prog, especially Genesis
· Lyrics range from Good Old Fashioned English Patriotism (Genesis, Jethro Tull, Big Big Train) to I AM THE CATFISH MAN type nonsense/fun (Spock’s Beard, The Flower Kings)
· Very, very, very, synth heavy (Genesis, IQ, Marillion), guitars are usually relegated to second to keys
· Linear song structures are common, very few “intense climaxes” here
· Pretty much ignored by critics, except Genesis, Jethro Tull, and two songs by Kansas
· Very musically complex, but probably not as much as “technical” or “experimental”
· IMO has literally zero emotion except a few Genesis songs (I’m entitled to my own opinion)
· Often much more happy and uplifting than any other category
Notes on specific artists:
None, because I generally avoid these artists, so I don’t know enough to judge genres. Please correct me if any of these are wrong.
My Top 3 Artists: (1) Genesis, (2) Jethro Tull, (3) Wobbler (I don’t like any others, except the two BBT songs I’ve heard)
5 Classic Albums: Genesis—Selling England By The Pound (also Foxtrot, which I prefer), Jethro Tull—Thick As A Brick, Caravan—In the Land of Grey and Pink, Spock’s Beard—The Light, Marillion—Clutching at Straws
10 Song Playlist: Genesis—Supper’s Ready, Genesis—Firth of Fifth, Jethro Tull—TAAB part 1, Caravan—Nine Feet Underground, Spock’s Beard—The Light (ew), Transatlantic—Stranger in Your Soul, Wobbler—Foxlight, Big Big Train—The Underfall Yard, Anglagard—Jordrok, The Flower Kings—Stardust We Are
My Ranking: distant 4th and last place
NPATLTIYLTS: (not many because I don’t seek out music like this)
Sufjan Stevens—Illinois
Arcade Fire—Funeral
Nick Drake—Pink Moon
Neutral Milk Hotel—In The Aeroplane Over The Sea
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
So, yeah. That was pretty long. Please comment, argue, suggest changes, whatever, because I bet there’s a lot wrong… well, that’s what you’re here for. If you read this whole thing… wow! Damn.
Edit 1: moved Canterbury scene to "Experimental"
Edit 2: changed "beautiful" to "melodic"
Edit 3: Moved Hogarth-era Marillion to "melodic"

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.

Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.

Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.

Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.

Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.

Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.

6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.

5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.

4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.

3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.

Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.

2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.

But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1

Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.

The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.

But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato

1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.

2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.

And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.

Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

The Ultimate Guide to Horse Racing Betting Sites Online. If you like to place horse racing bets then it is vital that you choose a bookmaker who gives you the best deal, or you could be missing out on great price boosts and offers that will give you more profit. Online Horse Betting & Greyhound Wagering at BettingHorses.com. US licensed & regulated - Safe, secure and legal online betting on horse racing and greyhound racing. Wager & watch live racing from over 100 Thoroughbred, Harness, Quarter Horse and Greyhound tracks from across the globe. Online Horse Racing Betting. Horse racing is one of the few sports in the world that actively endorse gambling. Without the betting action that accompanies nearly every race, there would be little incentive for tracks to remain open. Our horse racing betting guide offers all the basics you need to get started with betting and on the road to ... The 2017 Pacific Classic Betting Guide The 2017 Travers Stakes Betting Guide The 2017 Churchill Downs Fall Meet Betting Guide The 2017 Juvenile 2-year-old Betting Guide The 2017 Breeders' Cup Betting Guide. Action. Action can be found in watching tremendous four legged athletes compete or turning a $2 bet into a $200 profit. Wagering on horse racing online can be one of the most exciting ways to spend your betting bankroll. There is non-stop racing action from around the country and the world nearly 24/7, and a wide variety of wagering options from conservative show betting for a modest profit to a Pick 6 wager that can produce a life-changing score.

Betting Horses when you have a Small Bankroll - YouTube

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Horse Betting Guides 2020 Become a Horse Racing Expert

[PSA] Horse gambling still gives races with >100% player return value, making it profitable earlygame with zero effort.

Flatten the Curve. Part 53. IoT Surveillance. Recorded Future can Predict our Future. Petraeus. The Pandemic Era and Environmental Collapse. Oh. Do you Remember All the Dead Elephant's? I Do. And It Gave More Evidence of the Environmental Collapse Cover-up. It's Worse Than They Tell Us.

Ever.

WAIT! HOLD UP!

GTA Online Casino Inside Track Horse Racing glitch SOLO works for PC (maybe XBOX AND PS4 as well?)

2020 Preakness Stakes Early Expert Analysis

2020 Preakness Stakes Early Expert Analysis

Horse Racing Odds & Pick | Preakness Stakes Early Predictions

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Win: Authentic +125

Place: Swiss Skydiver +1400

Show: Art Collector +350

Fourth: Ny Traffic +1800

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Security and fair play

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Welcome bonus

Loyalty program

Progressive jackpots

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Content and Prices

Gambling

Business and Missions

FAQ

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Solo Session

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[Warning: this got really, really long! Like, way too long. Like, embarrassingly long.]

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

Betting Horses when you have a Small Bankroll - YouTube