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4 Roud Mock (With some trades)
A big project here that has been underway for a bit, with some tweaking as needed. I only made trades in the first round. Any trades you see are reflective of first round deals. There's usually a handful of them, so I tried to really push for trades, rather than a take a less realistic approach to it and be super conservative about. Additionally, I added a few 3rd round compensatory picks, based on the projections from over the cap.
FIRST ROUND
1.1 - Cincinnati Bengals - QB Joe Burrow (LSU). Don't need too much explanation here. Burrow is the best QB in this draft, perhaps even the best player, given how Chase Young was a bit quiet against Michigan & Clemson. Bringing him back to Ohio is too good. 1.2 - Washington Redskins - EDGE Chase Young (Ohio State). Another very easy pick, as Young has the potential to step into the NFL as a game changer from the first snap. Explosive, smart, and incredible hands, he has franchise changing potential. 1.3 - TRADE: Los Angeles Chargers - QB Tua Tagavailoa (Alabama). Miami could perhaps outbid the Chargers, but I don't see Miami wanting to give up too much of their stockpile for one player, especially given how many needs the Dolphins have. Thus, their #6 pick, a 3rd, and a 2021 1st round pick to Detroit for LAC to get a QB who could get them back to the playoffs immediately. 1.4 - New York Giants - OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia). This feels like such a good fit. Thomas is incredibly powerful, and fits the MO of the Giants well, building a powerful run game behind Saquon Barkley. 1.5 - Miami Dolphins - QB Justin Herbert (Oregon). According to reports, the Dolphins have done the most work on Herbert, and with the Chargers jumping up for Tua, the Dolphins choose to tap Herbert as their new starting QB, and hopefully fill out the rest of their needs with their massive stockpile of picks. 1.6 TRADE: Detroit Lions - DT Derrick Brown (Auburn). The Lions move back and still have their pick of Brown or Okudah, the two most popular names here. Ultimately, I went with Brown, as Brown can solve both their struggles stopping the run, and provide an interior pass rush. 1.7 Carolina Panthers - CB Jeff Okudah (Ohio State). The Panthers are probably hoping to get Brown, as his explosiveness is unreal, but Okudah could be an excellent piece to Matt Rhule's new defense, with his lockdown coverage ability. 1.8 TRADE: New York Jets - OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa). As the Cardinals debate OL vs. WR, the Jets ensure they land a top OT by offering them their 3rd round pick and a future 6th round pick. The Cardinals accept, and the Jets get Sam Darnold some much needed protection. 1.9 Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama). A great spot for the Jaguars, as Jeudy is arguably the best player left on the board, and also fills a big need for an offensive playmaker. Whether Nick Foles or Gardner Minshew starts for the Jags next season, Jeudy will make their lives easier. 1.10 Cleveland Browns - OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama). With Cleveland a sure bet to take a tackle, the Jets hopped them to get their choice. The Browns still take Wills, who has the athleticism to play either side, but either way is a big upgrade for Cleveland, as they attempt to rebuild their offensive line. 1.11 TRADE: Arizona Cardinals - WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma). With their decision now made for them, the Cardinals take perhaps the biggest playmaker on the board. Lamb is an exceptional fit for Kingsbury's passing attack, and he should give them a replacement for Larry Fitzgerald, whenever he chooses to retire. 1.12 Las Vegas Raiders - LB/S Isaiah Simmons (Clemson). With a big need to improve the speed of their LB spot, the Raiders take Simmons, which also fits nicely with Mayhew's affinity for Clemson players. Simmons' versatility is perhaps the best among any player in this draft. 1.13 TRADE: Philadelphia Eagles - CB Kristian Fulton (LSU). With teams like Dallas, Jacksonville, and Miami ahead of them, the Eagles act promptly to get the cornerback of their choosing. Sending their 2nd round pick and a 2021 day three pick to Indy, the Eagles land an elite cover corner in Fulton. 1.14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina). With the top 3 quarterbacks gone, the Bucs opt to do the smart thing, and take the disruptive DT from South Carolina. If they retain Barrett, this could be quite the deadly pass rush next season. 1.15 Denver Broncos - WR Henry Ruggs III (Alabama). The Broncos could use some speed to compliment Courtland Sutton at WR. Pairing the two of them should give second-year QB Drew Lock a promising group of pass catchers, as he attempts to bring the Broncos back to the playoffs. 1.16 Atlanta Falcons - EDGE A.J. Epenesa (Iowa). Almost too good to be true for the Falcons, as they get the second best pass rusher at 16 without having to move up. Thankfully the board falls well to them, and Epenesa gives them a powerful pass rushing presence to boost their DL. 1.17 Dallas Cowboys - S Grant Delpit (LSU). This pick seems almost too trendy, but that's because it's just a fantastic fit. Delpit's stock dropped a bit due to some poor tackling, but his ability to make plays all around the field is still unmatched at the safety position. A great fit in Dallas. 1.18 Miami Dolphins (via PIT) - OT Mekhi Becton (Louisville). The next tackle off the board comes to Miami, as the Dolphins need to rebuild this unit in a massive way. And what better way than to add a massive pass protector like Becton, who can keep Herbert clean for years to come. 1.19 Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI) - WR Tee Higgins. Wouldn't it be nice to grab a QB here Bears fans? Instead, the Raiders add a weapon on the outside in Higgins, whose elite body control allows him to come down with some insane catches. He gives the Raiders the outside weapon they're searching for. 1.20 Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama). The Jaguars could use a corner to play across from Bouye, and Diggs has elite size, and the ability to be a stud for them. 1.21 TRADE: Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State). I'd love to see the Colts target Arik Armstead in free agency to improve their pass rush, but if they don't, grabbing a high potential pass rusher like YGM would be an excellent move, especially after trading back for more picks. 1.22 Buffalo Bills - WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado). Shenault can make plays in so many different ways. He'd give OC Brian Daboll and QB Josh Allen a major boost with his play making. 1.23 New England Patriots - EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson (LSU). The Patriots would be best not using this on a tight end, as they are slow developers in their first seasons. Instead, go sign Hunter Henry, and then draft a pass rusher like Chaisson to help your defense continue to disrupt opposing offenses. 1.24 New Orleans Saints - LB Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma). The Saints could use some help in the middle of their defense, and Murray can make plays from sideline to sideline, a very well-rounded player. 1.25 Minnesota Vikings - CB C.J. Henderson (Florida). Death, taxes, Vikings drafting 1st round corners. Though this time, the need for one is very clear, given the potential exodus of corners they could have in free agency. Henderson has the ability to be a lockdown corner in Mike Zimmer's defense. 1.26 Miami Dolphins (via HOU) - RB D'Andre Swift (Georgia). Fans usually hate running backs in the first round, but the value of Swift here, compared to reaching on a pass rusher or guard here, is fantastic. He's a dynamic back, with play making ability both as a runner and as a pass catcher. 1.27 TRADE: Tennessee Titans - EDGE Curtis Weaver (Boise State) - The Titans hop ahead of the Ravens, landing the pass rushing OLB of their choice in Weaver. A strong pass rusher with plenty of moves, he and Harold Landry would form a scary good young duo in Tennessee. 1.28 Baltimore Ravens - WR Justin Jefferson (LSU) - Rather than reach for an edge rusher, the Ravens add Jefferson, whose electrifying season was a big part of why LSU are the national champions. He can help Lamar Jackson in a lot of ways, and is a pretty willing blocker in the run game. 1.29 TRADE: Seattle Seahawks - OT Lucas Niang (TCU) - Picking up a 2021 3rd round pick to swap with the Titans, the Seahawks use this pick to grab Niang, and give Russell Wilson some more protection, an upgrade over Ifedi in Seattle. 1.30 Green Bay Packers - WR Jalen Reagor (TCU) - Back to back Horned Frogs at the end of the first round, as the Packers add a big time weapon to their offense. Reagor's ability to take the top off of defenses would be a huge boost for Rodgers. 1.31 Kansas City Chiefs - RB Travis Etienne (Clemson) - Wanted to give the Chiefs some defensive help, but nothing stood out as a great fit. Instead, the Chiefs take the best player left on the board in Etienne, and continue to add elite weapons to an already dangerous offense. 1.32 TRADE: Carolina Panthers - QB Jordan Love (Utah State). The 49ers are low on picks in this draft, so a trade back to replenish their ammo would be great. And the Panthers land themselves Love, who can develop under Rhule and new Panthers OC Joe Brady, sending a 4th and a 7th round pick to the 49ers in return.
SECOND ROUND
2.1 Cincinnati Bengals - OT Josh Jones (Houston). Now that they have their franchise QB, they need to protect their franchise QB. With Jonah Williams added in last year, the Bengals add a long, athletic pass protector in Jones. 2.2 Indianapolis Colts (via WAS) - WR K.J. Hamler (Penn State). The Colts used their first pick to add defensive help, and now this pick turns into the speedy Hamler to help the offense. 2.3 Detroit Lions - CB A.J. Terrell (Clemson). After taking a DT in the first round, the Lions land a great fit in Terrell to give them some needed cornerback help. 2.4 New York Giants - EDGE Zack Baun (Wisconsin). Continuing to build the team from the inside out, the Giants add an excellent pass rusher in Baun, who has risen immensely since last season. 2.5 Los Angeles Chargers - OT Austin Jackson (USC). Like the Bengals, the Chargers need to find protection for their new signal caller, and this comes in the local product out of USC. 2.6 TRADE: San Francisco 49ers - CB Jeff Gladney (TCU). After moving out of the first round, the 49ers add extra picks and now select a cornerback to boost their outstanding defense. 2.7 Miami Dolphins - G Soloman Kindley (Georgia). Miami needs to take multiple offensive linemen in the first two days of the draft, and they so here with a strong interior guard in Kindley. 2.8 Arizona Cardinals - DT Raekwon Davis (Alabama). After adding CeeDee Lamb in the first, the Cardinals add a long, powerful DT to give a boost to their defense, rather than reach on OL here. 2.9 Cleveland Browns - S Xavier McKinney (Alabama). The Browns should have plenty of opportunities to fill their biggest needs with elite prospects, and they do exactly that by adding McKinney here. 2.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin). The theme here is continuing to add weapons to this offense, and Taylor can be a big boost either in tangent with Fournette, or as a pass catcher out of the backfield. 2.11 Chicago Bears (via LVR) - G/C Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin). Back to back Badgers, as the Bears add some much needed help on the OL in Biadasz, who can easily slide to guard alongside Daniels. 2.12 Indianapolis Colts - QB Jacob Eason (Washington). The Colts may have waited a bit, but they do add a QB with immense potential in the strong armed-Eason. A season behind Brissett could do him wonders. 2.13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn). The Bucs find themselves a pass protector, and PTW may have the highest ceiling out of all these guys due to his immense athleticism. 2.14 Denver Broncos - OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia). The Broncos too need to find some help at OT, and they get that with Wilson, another incredibly athletic SEC pass protector. 2.15 Atlanta Falcons - DT Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma). Didn't like a fit for any corners here, so the Falcons take Gallimore and provide a boost to their defensive line. 2.16 New York Jets - EDGE Terrell Lewis (Alabama). In need of pass rushers as well, the Jets take a chance on Lewis, who has immense potential, but has dealt with some injuries. 2.17 Pittsburgh Steelers - EDGE Julian Okwara (Notre Dame). The Steelers enter the draft, and they pick Notre Dame's top edge rusher, a crafty and surprisingly strong pass rusher. 2.18 Chicago Bears - TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame). The first tight end off the board is Kmet, who will provide Trubisky another weapon in hopes that he can get things figured out. 2.19 Dallas Cowboys - DT Justin Madibuike (Texas A&M). The Cowboys first two picks gives them two impact defenders to help straighten out their defense. 2.20 Los Angeles Rams - OT Trey Adams (Washington). If the Rams want another run at the Super Bowl, heck, even the playoffs, they need to upgrade their OL, and they do that with the massive product out of Washington. 2.21 TRADE: Indianapolis Colts - TE Hunter Bryant (Washington) Picking this up from the Eagles, the Colts reunite Bryant and Eason, giving them a natural replacement for Ebron as a pass catching TE. 2.22 Buffalo Bills - EDGE Jabari Zuniga (Florida). The Bills add a pass rusher here, as Zuniga's excellent play earns him a spot in the second round. 2.23 Atlanta Falcons (via NE) - CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah) - The Falcons add a corner with the pick they received in the Sanu trade. Johnson was a major asset for the tough Utah defense. 2.24 Miami Dolphins (via NO) - EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Florida). Just two picks behind a fellow Gator's pass rusher, Greenard fits Flores scheme quite well, and provides some pass rush help. 2.25 Houston Texans - RB Cam Akers (Florida State). Akers may be the most underrated back in this draft, as he managed to put up excellent footage in Tallahassee, despite playing behind that garbage OL. 2.26 Minnesota Vikings - T/G Calvin Throckmorten (Oregon). The Vikings run came to end as the 49ers obliterated their OL. They address that with the RT out of Oregon. 2.27 Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Darrell Taylor (Tennessee). The Seahawks will likely re-sign Jadeveon Clowney as a powerful SDE, but adding an edge rusher who gets after the QB a bit more would be great. 2.28 Baltimore Ravens - ILB Troy Dye (Oregon). Filling the void left by C.J. Mosley, Dye steps into to a Ravens defense, and could be a bit component for them going forward. 2.29 Tennessee Titans - RB J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State). This would change if the Titans re-sign Derrick Henry, however, with a very good offensive line, the Titans could likely continue rushing success without Henry. 2.30 Green Bay Packers - DT Ross Blacklock (TCU). Perhaps one of my favorite "sleepers" of the draft, Blacklock has a fantastic blend of size and quickness to him. 2.31 Kansas City Chiefs - CB Cameron Dantzler (Mississippi St.). A big, physical corner, Dantzler should step in and contribute for the Chiefs fairly quickly, given their needs at corner. 2.32 Seattle Seahawks - WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona St.). A big play waiting to happen every time the ball heads his direction, Aiyuk would give Russell Wilson an electric weapon.
Third Round
3.1 Cincinnati Bengals - C Nick Harris (Washington) 3.2 Washington Redskins - WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan) 3.3 Detroit Lions - EDGE Bradlee Anae (Utah) 3.4 TRADE: Arizona Cardinals - G John Simpson (Clemson) - from trade w/ NYJ (via NYG). 3.5 Carolina Panthers - DT Rashard Lawrence (LSU) 3.6 Miami Dolphins - G Shane Lemiuex (Oregon) 3.7 TRADE: Detroit Lions - WR Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) - from trade w/ LAC. 3.8 Arizona Cardinals - OT Yasir Durant (Missouri) 3.9 Jacksonville Jaguars - S Ashtyn Davis (California) 3.10 Cleveland Browns - G Ben Bredeson (Michigan) 3.11 Indianapolis Colts - DL Marlon Davidson (Auburn) 3.12 Tampa Bay Bucs - CB Deommodore Lenoir (Oregon) 3.13 Denver Broncos - CB Lamar Jackson (Nebraska) 3.14 Atlanta Falcons - WR Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) 3.15 New York Jets - S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Minnesota) 3.16 Las Vegas Raiders - CB/S Shyheim Carter (Alabama) 3.17 Las Vegas Raiders - LB Jacob Phillips (LSU) 3.18 Dallas Cowboys - WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota) 3.19 Denver Broncos (via PIT) - OT Robert Hunt (UL-Lafayette) 3.20 Los Angeles Rams - DT Leki Fotu (Utah) 3.21 Philadelphia Eagles - S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne) 3.22 Buffalo Bills - EDGE Anfernee Jennings (Alabama) 3.23 New England Patriots - QB Jake Fromm (Georgia) 3.24 New Orleans Saints - QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma) 3.25 Minnesota Vikings - DL Nick Coe (Auburn) 3.26 Cleveland Browns (via HOU) - LB Malik Harrison (Ohio State) 3.27 Las Vegas Raiders (via SEA) - WR Devin Duvernay (Texas) 3.28 Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Khalid Kareem (Notre Dame) 3.29 Tennessee Titans - DT Jordan Elliott (Missouri) 3.30 Green Bay Packers - LB Jordan Mack (Virginia) 3.31 Kansas City Chiefs - LB Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech) 3.32 Denver Broncos (via SF) - OT Scott Franz (Kansas State) Compensatory Picks (as predicted by OverTheCap) 3.33 New England Patriots - OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) 3.34 New York Giants - WR Gabriel Davis (UCF) 3.35 New England Patriots - TE Adam Trautman (Dayton) 3.36 Seattle Seahawks - S Hamsah Nasirildeen (Florida State) 3.37 Houston Texans - EDGE Josh Uche (Michigan) 3.38 Pittsburgh Steelers - TE Colby Parkinson (Stanford) 3.39 Philadelphia Eagles - CB Thomas Graham (Oregon)
Fourth Round
4.1 Cincinnati Bengals - WR Antonio Gandy-Golden (Liberty) 4.2 Washington Redskins - CB Amik Robertson (Louisiana Tech) 4.3 Detroit Lions - RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) 4.4 New York Giants - CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State) 4.5 Houston Texans (via MIA) - C/G Netane Muti (Fresno State) 4.6 Los Angeles Chargers - C Matt Hennessy (Temple) 4.7 TRADE: San Francisco 49ers - C Jake Hanson (Oregon) 4.8 Arizona Cardinals - RB Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma St.) 4.9 Cleveland Browns - OT Jack Driscoll (Auburn) 4.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (Appalachian St.) 4.11 Tampa Bay Bucs - RB Eno Benjamin (Arizona St.) 4.12 Denver Broncos - DT Raequan Williams (Michigan St.) 4.13 Atlanta Falcons - CB Darnay Holmes (UCLA) 4.14 New York Jets - EDGE Kenny Willekes (Michigan St.) 4.15 Las Vegas Raiders - QB Anthony Gordon (Washington St.) 4.16 Indianapolis Colts - RB Kylin Hill (Mississippi St.) 4.17 Dallas Cowboys - WR Isaiah Hodgins (Oregon St.) 4.18 Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Ben Bartch (St. John's) 4.19 New England Patriots (via CHI) - LB Logan Wilson (Wyoming) 4.20 Los Angeles Rams - WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame) 4.21 Philadelphia Eagles - WR Denzel Mims (Baylor) 4.22 Buffalo Bills - WR Jauan Jennings (Tennessee) 4.23 Baltimore Ravens - RB A.J. Dillon (Boston College 4.24 New Orleans Saints - CB Bryce Hall (Virginia) 4.25 Houston Texans - TE Brycen Hopkins (Purdue) 4.26 Minnesota Vikings - WR Lynn Bowden (Kentucky) 4.27 Seattle Seahawks - G Logan Stenberg (Kentucky) 4.28 Baltimore Ravens - Cesar Ruiz (Michigan) 4.29 Pittsburgh Steelers (via TEN) - OT Justin Herron (Wake Forrest) 4.30 Green Bay Packers - OT Matt Peart (UCONN) 4.31 Kansas City Chiefs - CB Kindle Vildor (Georgia Southern) 4.32 Denver Broncos (via SF) - LB Cameron Brown (Penn State) Anyways. That's my shot at one. Tell me why you hate it...
Everything is updated for games on February 10th. Records do not include non-D1 games. All data taken from http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty. Let me know if you enjoyed! Lock means no chance to miss the tournament, if there's any way it's possible that I see I won't lock teams. It's another edition of Skarmory's Bubble Watch! I'm going to make an effort to post these probably some combination of monday/tuesday and thursday/friday. Daily updates will happen idk when things start really heating up. Also, from now on, I'm pretty much loosening up what I accept as on the bubble, so there'll probably be more teams on here. AAC: Locks: N/A Should be in: Houston Work left to do: Wichita State, Cincinnati, Memphis This conference looks prime for a bid steal, with only 4 teams really being on the bubble right now and teams like UConn, Tulsa and SMU hanging around. Memphis does make an appearance back on the bubble too, even as an edge bubble team. Locks: None. Should be in: Houston (21-7 (11-4), NET 24, SOS 82, 2-4 Q1, 6-3 Q2) Houston remains in the area of 1 win away from being a lock. They did avoid a Q3 loss from the hands of Tulsa, but after a road loss to Memphis they're 1-2 in their last 3. With a stretch of home vs. Cincinnati, @ Connecticut and vs. Memphis, they theoretically don't have a bad loss left, but they could end up playing the worst seed in the CT in their first game, which would be likely Q3 on a neutral court. Win 1 more game and they're definitely safe though. Work left to do: Wichita State (20-7 (8-6), NET 44, SOS 86, 2-4 Q1, 6-3 Q2) Right now, Wichita State is basically beating who they should while not picking up any more solid wins. They dropped a Q1 game at Cincinnati, before that they'd beaten USF at home. Picking up a decent win in their last 4 games would be ideal for them, as they host Temple then travel to SMU, the latter of which is a Q2 opportunity. Cincinnati (18-9 (11-4), NET 54, SOS 12, 2-5 Q1, 6-0 Q2, 4 Q3 losses) Cincinnati lost at home to UCF. Q3 loss counter: 4. That's not ideal if you want to make the tournament, and they seem to be right on the bubble right now because of the amount of Q3 losses. They swept Wichita and beat Houston in their only matchup, so they definitely have some decent wins, but only time will tell if that's enough to get them in the tourney. Next up is the return trip to Houston, followed by a trip to USF. Memphis (19-8 (8-6), NET 61, SOS 84, 2-4 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 3 Q3 losses) I figure even though Memphis' resume isn't all that good, they're worth pointing out here. Very much an edge bubble team, they probably wouldn't get in right now, but they're at least on the bubble. Gonna take more work than some of the other teams listed here, though. Next up are trips to SMU and Tulane, losing either of those, especially the latter, could be pretty bad for Memphis. ACC: Locks: Duke, Louisville, Florida State Should be in: Virginia Work left to do: NC State At this point, the ACC looks like they'll have 4 or 5 teams in the tourney. This would've seemed unimaginable only a few short months ago. Crazy how fast things can change. Locks: Duke (23-4 (13-3), NET 6, SOS 24, 4-3 Q1, 6-0 Q2, Q3 loss) Florida State (24-4 (14-3), NET 8, SOS 33, 5-3 Q1, 8-1 Q2) Louisville (23-6 (14-4), NET 11, SOS 27, 4-5 Q1, 6-1 Q2) Should be in: Virginia (19-7 (11-5), NET 51, SOS 87, 3-3 Q1, 6-3 Q2, Q3 loss) UVA is 7-1 in their last 8 with a Q1 win and 5 Q2 wins in that span, and their only loss being at Louisville. That's pretty good! They've made it to should be in, all 4 remaining games they have are Q2 or better so they can definitely help their resume out more too. A trip to VT is next, followed by a major home opportunity against Duke. Work left to do: NC State (17-10 (8-8), NET 53, SOS 53, 5-4 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 3 Q3 losses) Well, look what happened here! NC State picked up a blowout win against Duke, and that was enough to launch them right into the general mix of things. Even though they lost at home to FSU after that, that's a huge win. They still have 3 Q3 losses, which isn't good, but also they now have 5 Q1 wins total and an additional 4 in Q2. Definitely on the bubble, as they travel to UNC and host Pitt in their next 2 games. Big 12: Locks: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia Should be in: Texas Tech Work left to do: Oklahoma The long awaited Baylor-Kansas rematch finally happened, and it was a solid game, with Kansas edging out Baylor and taking the #1 slot in both the AP Poll and NET. Baylor stayed at #2 in NET and fell to #2 in the AP, so the Big 12 is now 1-2 in both NET and the AP Poll. Locks: Kansas (24-3 (14-1), NET 1, SOS 1, 11-3 Q1, 8-0 Q2) Baylor (24-2 (13-1), NET 2, SOS 68, 10-1 Q1, 5-1 Q2) West Virginia (19-9 (7-8), NET 17, SOS 2, 5-7 Q1, 5-2 Q2) Should be in: Texas Tech (18-9 (9-5), NET 15, SOS 92, 3-8 Q1, 4-1 Q2) TTU picked up 2 wins this past week, and I'm pretty confident they'll make it, but I'm 1 win away from locking them due to the general lack of good wins. Only 2 Q1 wins, of which 1 is 1 spot from Q2, and 4 Q2 wins. They'd be on the bubble if they lost out, and I'm not quite safe locking them yet. Next up, they travel to Oklahoma, and then host Texas. Win either of those and they're definitely locked. Work left to do: Oklahoma (16-11 (6-8), NET 55, SOS 36, 3-9 Q1, 5-2 Q2) A home loss to Baylor was expected, and didn't hurt that much, but a road loss to OKST is not ideal. Sure, it's Q1, but that could've been a decent win as opposed to an 11th loss. That loss count is going up, which isn't helpful, and they're right back on the bubble. They hope to change things at home against TTU or at WVU, but they could fall to the wrong side of the bubble if they lose both. Big East: Locks: Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, Butler, Marquette Should be in: N/A Work left to do: Xavier, Providence, Georgetown Marquette may have gone 0-2 this week, but looking at them compared to other teams, I don't see a way they miss out, lose out or not. So, they become the 5th Big East team to become a lock. Also, remember when I said Providence likely wasn't coming back? They made me regret that quickly. Hello, Providence! Locks: Creighton (21-6 (11-4), NET 9, SOS 16, 9-6 Q1, 5-0 Q2) Villanova (21-6 (10-4), NET 12, SOS 4, 8-6 Q1, 6-0 Q2) Seton Hall (20-7 (12-3), NET 16, SOS 19, 10-5 Q1, 5-2 Q2) Butler (19-9 (7-8), NET 23, SOS 41, 8-7 Q1, 5-2 Q2) Marquette (17-9 (7-7), NET 26, SOS 7, 5-8 Q1, 6-1 Q2) Should be in: None. Work left to do: Xavier (17-10 (6-8), NET 43, SOS 11, 3-9 Q1, 6-1 Q2) Xavier lost at home to Villanova, which was a nice opportunity for a decent win, but it's not a bad loss by any means. Still, some more good wins would be nice, as they do only have 3 Q1 wins. They host DePaul next, followed by a trip to Georgetown; the latter is a Q1 opportunity, a win there would be very helpful. Providence (16-12 (9-6), NET 48, SOS 13, 7-8 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 3 Q3 losses, Q4 losses) Providence is uh...interesting. They've made me eat my words, that's for sure. The only Big East teams they haven't beaten are Villanova and Xavier, and they still have games against each of them; certainly not easy wins but still overall impressive. Out of those, they have 7 Q1 wins, and 3 more Q2 wins. Really solid, the reason that I hadn't considered them before now is their losses. They have 8 Q1 losses, which aren't bad, but the other 4 are in Q3/Q4. A neutral court loss to Long Beach State is awful, they're #288 and that's the Q4 loss, and they're also 1-3 in Q3, featuring losses to Charleston on a neutral court, Penn at home and Northwestern on the road. Yikes. A road trip to Villanova is up next, which would be a great win, and then they close out the year hosting Xavier and DePaul. If they do make the tournament, they are not a team I would want to play, that's for sure. Georgetown (15-12 (5-9), NET 58, SOS 18, 4-10 Q1, 5-2 Q2) Georgetown was looking good, but then they lost two in a row after a huge road win against Butler. A home loss to Providence and road loss to DePaul are not ideal, and probably knocked them to the wrong side of the bubble. They look to bounce back with a trip to Marquette, followed by hosting Xavier. Big Ten: Locks: Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa Should be in: Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana Work left to do: Rutgers, Purdue And here comes 3 more B1G teams to being locked, MSU, Ohio State and Michigan. That brings the total of locks in the B1G up to 6, but with Purdue and Minnesota declining it looks like at best we'll see a 10 bid B1G, which would fall 1 short of tying the record of most bids by a conference that the Big East set in 2011. Speaking of Minnesota, they're gone for now, I don't think they're particularly close to the bubble but a good showing could change that. For now though, they're not here. Locks: Maryland (22-5 (12-4), NET 10, SOS 30, 6-5 Q1, 6-0 Q2) Michigan State (18-9 (10-6), NET 13, SOS 56, 5-8 Q1, 5-1 Q2) Ohio State (18-9 (8-8), NET 19, SOS 40, 5-8 Q1, 5-1 Q2) Michigan (18-9 (9-7), NET 22, SOS 65, 7-8 Q1, 4-1 Q2) Penn State (20-7 (10-6), NET 25, SOS 112, 7-5 Q1, 5-2 Q2) Iowa (19-8 (10-6), NET 27, SOS 90, 7-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2, Q3 loss) Should be in: Wisconsin (17-10 (10-6), NET 30, SOS 28, 7-8 Q1, 3-1 Q2, Q3 loss) Wisconsin won home games against Purdue and Rutger, which are 2 Q2 wins, and that gets them to 10 combined Q1/Q2 wins. Their top is still solid, and they look like a pretty sure bet to make it, but I'd like to see one more win before I feel comfortable enough to lock them in. A trip to Michigan is next, followed by hosting Minnesota. Illinois (17-9 (10-6), NET 35, SOS 72, 5-7 Q1, 3-1 Q2, Q3 loss) Illinois finally picked up a win on that 5 game stretch I pointed out, right at the end with a really good road win at PSU. They followed that up with a win against Nebraska, and I feel they're pretty safe for now. That PSU win could very well be the best win of the season for them. Anyway, following that, next up they take a trip to Northwestern, followed by hosting Indiana. Winning both of those would probably lock them. Indiana (18-9 (8-8), NET 52, SOS 44, 6-7 Q1, 2-2 Q2) Indiana's record is now on par with the other teams in this range at 18-9, but their NET is still below 50. That's the worst thing Indiana probably has right now is their bad NET, it's not like they're bad, 6-7 Q1 and 2-2 Q2 isn't bad, but NET just dislikes them. After picking up a road win against Minnesota and a home win against Penn State, both Q1 wins, I've upgraded them to should be in. Next up are trips to Purdue and Illinois. Work left to do: Rutgers (17-10 (9-8), NET 34, SOS 51, 3-8 Q1, 4-1 Q2, Q3 loss) Rutgers finally lost a home game, to Michigan. Overall, they've struggled recently, going 2-5 in their last 7 which puts them in work left to do, at least for now. Overall, they still don't have that much on their resume and a Q3 loss to St. Bonaventure remains, they have 3 games left on the season to try and bounce back. The first is a trip to PSU, followed by hosting Maryland, and then they travel to Purdue. After that is the conference tournament, we'll see how they do and if they need something from the conference tournament after their final 3 games. Purdue (14-14 (7-10), NET 36, SOS 54, 4-11 Q1, 3-2 Q2, Q3 loss) Purdue's hopes have gone downhill after a 4 game losing streak, putting them at 14-14 overall. They're pretty much right on the edge of falling off the bubble, and they probably need a good CT run even if they win out. With a home game against Indiana, a trip to Iowa and hosting Rutgers left, things look very bleak for the Boilermakers. Pac-12: Locks: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon Should be in: Arizona State Work left to do: Stanford, USC, UCLA Arizona joins the locks, with a top 10 NET that they probably don't deserve but is enough to lock them at 19-8. Meanwhile, UCLA comes out of nowhere to jump onto the bubble. Also, Arizona State leads the Pac-12. Interesting conference. Locks: Arizona (19-8 (9-5), NET 7, SOS 5, 3-6 Q1, 5-1 Q2, Q3 loss) Colorado (21-7 (10-5), NET 18, SOS 6, 6-3 Q1, 5-3 Q2, Q3 loss) Oregon (21-7 (10-5), NET 20, SOS 3, 7-5 Q1, 4-2 Q2) Should be in: Arizona State (19-8 (10-4), NET 41, SOS 14, 5-6 Q1, 4-2 Q2) ASU is very hot right now, having a 7 game win streak and are 9-1 in their last 10. In that span, they've beaten Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, and USC, and picked up 4 Q1 wins total, along with 2 Q2 wins. This stretch has definitely launched ASU into should be in by now, and they take trips to UCLA and USC next. Overall, ASU's resume is definitely solid, which is why they're in should be in now. Work left to do: Stanford (18-9 (7-7), NET 31, SOS 96, 2-5 Q1, 4-3 Q2, Q3 loss) Stanford finally won some games, with a sweep of the Washington schools on the road. They're still probably on the wrong side of the bubble but things are looking better for them. Next up, they host Utah and Colorado, of which the latter is a huge opportunity that could be the type of win they need. We'll see if they can keep the momentum going, as they were 1-7 in the 8 games before then. USC (19-9 (8-7), NET 47, SOS 60, 2-7 Q1, 6-1 Q2, Q3 loss) USC went 0-2 on the trip into the rockies, pushing them right back onto the bubble. Their wins are really not all that impressive, they are 19-9 which is solid but only 2 of them are Q1. The home loss to Temple remains Q3, and while USC may be on the right side of the bubble now, that could change. They finish the season with home games against Arizona, ASU and UCLA; all of them are very losable and all of them are very winnable. UCLA (16-11 (10-5), NET 76, SOS 74, 5-5 Q1, 2-4 Q2, Q3 loss, Q4 loss) UCLA has made their way into an edge bubble case lately, and also into a tie for 2nd place in the Pac-12. They've won 5 in a row and 9 out of their last 11, playing hot right now. The latest victory they picked up was a very good road win against Colorado, who they also beat earlier on at home; they also have a road win against Arizona, but with a home loss to Hofstra in Q3 and an awful home loss to Cal State Fullerton, their NET sits at #76, which means that a home game by any team against them is a Q3 game. Not that useful of a tidbit, but UCLA still probably needs more to be considered with a decent chance of getting in. They do have that opportunity though, hosting ASU and Arizona before taking a trip to USC to end the year. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. SEC: Locks: Kentucky, Auburn, LSU Should be in: Florida Work left to do: Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State I feel safe enough to lock up LSU, so they're the 3rd SEC team locked up. It looks like we'll have 4 or 5 teams make it, with a bunch of edge bubble teams where 1 of them at least could make a push. South Carolina is also sorta in that category but I don't think they're close enough to warrant inclusion yet. Locks: Kentucky (22-5 (12-2), NET 21, SOS 89, 6-3 Q1, 4-1 Q2, Q4 loss) Auburn (23-4 (10-4), NET 28, SOS 43, 5-2 Q1, 7-2 Q2) LSU (19-8 (10-4), NET 29, SOS 8, 4-6 Q1, 7-1 Q2, Q3 loss) Should be in: Florida (17-10 (9-5), NET 33, SOS 35, 4-7 Q1, 4-3 Q2) Florida gave Kentucky a good effort on the road, but even with a loss there they still move to should be in. Still not much to say about them, they beat Arkansas at home which was a Q2 win. Overall, they'd make the tourney if it was now. Next up. they host LSU and travel to Tennessee. Work left to do: Alabama (15-12 (7-7), NET 40, SOS 23, 2-6 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) Another Q3 loss is not what a fringe bubble team in Alabama needed. They responded to the home loss to A&M by blowing out Ole Miss on the road, but they have a lot of work left to do to make it. NET has them rated highly, but at only 15-12 and with a 2-6 Q1/4-4 Q2 record, they need more. They take a trip to MSST next, which is their last Q1 game, followed by hosting South Carolina. They absolutely have to capitalize there. Arkansas (17-10 (5-9), NET 45, SOS 26, 2-6 Q1, 2-4 Q2) Arkansas really doesn't look that good at this point. They have an okay record and no bad losses, but meh Q1 and Q2 records. They did snap a 5 game losing streak with a home win against Missouri, but that knocked them very much to the wrong side of the bubble, and they do have 2 Q2 games next, home vs. Tennessee and @ Georgia, that they need to capitalize on as well. Mississippi State (17-10 (8-6), NET 57, SOS 49, 2-6 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) Mississippi State is like a hybrid between Arkansas and Alabama. Has a better record like Arkansas, but the Q3 losses that Alabama has. It's actually pretty surprising how close these teams are. NET does not like Mississippi State though, which definitely doesn't help them. Next up, they host Alabama, then travel to Missouri, of which both games are Q2. Other conferences: Locks: San Diego State, Gonzaga, Dayton, BYU Should be in: St. Mary's Work left to do: Rhode Island, Utah State, ETSU, Northern Iowa, Richmond Even with Gonzaga and SDSU losing, the 3-5 slots in both NET and the AP poll are still occupied by Gonzaga, Dayton and SDSU. Meanwhile, BYU jumps to 14th in NET, and locks themselves in after a huge win over Gonzaga. Locks: Gonzaga (27-2 (13-1 WCC), NET 3, SOS 132, 5-2 Q1, 3-0 Q2) Dayton (25-2 (14-0 A10), NET 4, SOS 25, 342 Q1, 6-0 Q2) San Diego State (25-1 (15-1 MW), NET 5, SOS 106, 4-0 Q1, 5-0 Q2, Q3 loss) BYU (22-7 (12-3 WCC), NET 14, SOS 30, 3-4 Q1, 4-3 Q2) Should be in: St. Mary's (22-6 (10-4 WCC), NET 32, SOS 81, 3-3 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) Saint Mary's looks relatively safe now, as they did beat both Loyola Marymount and San Diego. Their next game is a Q3 game @ Santa Clara, but losing that probably boosts Santa Clara to Q2; they did lose at home to them earlier this season though. Then, they travel to Gonzaga. After that, it's the conference tournament. As long as nothing disastrous happens, SMC should still be safe. Work left to do: Rhode Island (19-7 (11-3 A10), NET 37, SOS 57, 1-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, Q3 loss) A loss at Davidson was definitely not what Rhode Island needed. Sure, it's Q2, but that could've been a Q2 win or at least just not another number in the loss column. That's definitely put them back on the bubble, even if the right side of it. A road loss at Fordham in their next game would be absolute disaster, but assuming they don't lose there, they host St. Louis in what currently would be a Q2 game. Utah State (20-7 (11-5 MWC), NET 38, SOS 102, 2-4 Q1, 2-2 Q2, Q3 loss) No major change for USU, they beat Wyoming like they should. Next up, they host SJSU, followed by a trip to New Mexico that looks like it will be a Q3 game to close out the year. Right now, they probably are on the right side of the bubble, but they just need to avoid losing right now. East Tennessee State (22-4 (14-2 SoCon), NET 39, SOS 151, 2-1 Q1, 1-1 Q2, Q3 loss, Q4 loss) ETSU picked up the home win against Furman, but it fell to Q3, and their road loss against Furman is now a Q2 loss. In addition to that, their loss at NDSU fell to Q3, by 1 spot but it still is. A lot of moving parts here, but obviously the best path to making it is just to win their conference tournament. I have a feeling ETSU would end up as a snub if it does end up going that way though, we'd have to wait and see in that case. They close off the regular season with a game at Wofford and playing host to Western Carolina. Northern Iowa (21-5 (12-4 MVC), NET 46, SOS 98, 1-1 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses) Eek. UNI had another opportunity for a Q2 win, and they lost at Indiana State. They're in a pretty similar situation to ETSU, best way to making the tourney is just to win the conference tournament. Next up, they host an Evansville team who beat Kentucky on the road...but is also winless in conference, and take a trip to Drake to close out the year. Richmond (20-7 (10-4 A10), NET 49, SOS 78, 2-4 Q1, 2-2 Q2, Q3 loss) A loss at St. Bonaventure may have knocked Richmond to the wrong side of the bubble. Overall, they don't have many good opportunities left in the regular season, and their current resume isn't spectacular. Next up is a trip to George Washington, followed by hosting UMass; both are Q3 games. Just winning is the best thing Richmond can do for now. Teams moving into this bubble watch: Memphis Providence UCLA Teams moving out from the last bubble watch: Minnesota VCU
Note: This post is best enjoyed on a desktop with old Reddit: click here
Concept (Please Read): Each week, all FBS teams will gamble 50% of their remaining endowment against the money line odds. Teams do not bet against each other, but rather the /CFB Sports Book
Heavy favorites will be mildly rewarded for their wins, but upsets will propel universities up the rankings, bringing economic prosperity and opportunities to their students - that is until they lose the following week and wipe out half of their remaining endowment. How money line betting works: If a team has negative odds, they are the favorite - Ex: Utah -220, must wager $220 to profit $100 If a team has positive odds, they are the underdog - Ex: LSU +350, must wager $100 to profit $350
Track the standings and each week's matchups in the Google Sheet
Another very modest week, a small $2B profit for Las Vegas, just enough to offset last week
Week 13 Results
Apple Cup - Washington State #11 Washington State fell at the hands of rival Washington Washington in the snow on Friday at the Apple Cup, but the Cougars remain in the top 15 despite a $1.88B loss. The Huskies enter the top 25 again with a $420M win Paul Bunyan's Axe - Minnesota Minnesota had the biggest climb this week, jumping 17 spots to #22 defeating Wisconsin Wisconsin. The Golden Gophers end their 14-year losing streak and take home $640M, to round their endowment to an even billion. The Game - The Game was a little one-sided this year, with Ohio State Ohio State routing rival Michigan Michigan to take home $3.85B and enter the top 5 for the first time. Michigan drops out of the top 5, losing nearly $5B. Texas A&M Texas A&M took 7 overtimes, but defeated rival LSU #12 LSU for the first time since 1995 to win $186M, while the Tigers slipped 2 spots but remain in the top 15. Oklahoma #18 Oklahoma handles West Virginia West Virginia in a classic Big 12 affair to win $410M before their rematch with Texas. Notre Dame #1 Notre Dame ended their regular season with a perfect record with a defeat of USC USC. Almost certainly playoff bound, the Fighting Irish are going to have to wait over a month for their next action
The Bull's season is impressive, more than doubling their starting endowment in key upsets to earn more than $674M before clinching a spot in the MAC Championship Game. Their opponent: Northern Illinois a team that has lost 67% of their endowment but have everything to play for this Friday with a chance to wipe out their losses in an upset. Current Line: Buffalo -175 With a Win: Buffalo: $1.33B Northern Illinois: $24.62M
Utah #29 Utah Utes vs. Washington #19 Washington Huskies
The Utes had a slow start to the season, dropping two of their first four including a loss to Washington, but Utah has been red hot since then, winning seven of their last eight. Utah's early season losses made it difficult to have positive cash flow, but they are down just 41% with a chance to enter the black this week. Similarly, the Washington Huskies season started off with a dud against Auburn in Atlanta. Since then, the Huskies have ebbed and flowed their way to a Pac-12 Championship and despite losing over 66% of their endowment, have a chance to win some big cash in the Championship and a bowl game. Current Line: Washington -200 With a Win: Utah: $540M Washington: $282M
Despite Pitt being ranked higher in our simulation, these two teams have had opposite seasons. Clemson has calmly worked their way through their schedule to enter Championship week at 12-0, while Pittsburgh has been predictably unpredictable including dropping their season finale. However, things have happened before when unranked Pitt takes on #2 Clemson, so don't count chaos out just yet. Current Line: Clemson -4625 With a Win: Clemson: $9.95M Pittsburgh: $32.05B
Texas #3 Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma #15 Oklahoma Sooners
Are they back? We will have to see! In a rematch of the Red River Showdown, a thrilling affair where the Longhorns won 48-45, Oklahoma seeks revenge and a possible date with the playoffs. After another early season disappointment against Maryland, Texas has been strong, taking home over $5.5B to grow their endowment 50%. The Sooners' only loss wiped out their earnings for the season, but they will enter the black once again if they can defeat their rival. Current Line: Oklahoma -300 With a Win: Texas: $20.03B Oklahoma: $271.13M
Speaking of roller coasters, have you heard of the Wildcats? Despite early season losses, Northwestern has been one of the overall best investments this season, taking home over $15B of profit, more than doubling their original endowment. And then we have the Buckeyes, who except for some pesky Boilermakers and scary Terrapins have had a perfect season and have nearly doubled their endowment capping the regular season off with a $3.85B win over rival Michigan. They may have a CFP spot on the line as well, should they defeat Northwestern. Current Line: Ohio State -555 With a Win: Northwestern: $56.14B Ohio State: $742.72M
Georgia #20 Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama #25 Alabama Crimson Tide
This game was set up to be as fair as possible, but the journey to the top would be most difficult to schools like these. Both Georgia and Alabama started the season with smaller endowments and were heavily favored in almost every game, meaning that a 12-0 Alabama has only grown their endowment by 20.86%. As far as investments go, a 20% return in a little over three months is nothing to scoff at. Maybe some ETF's in the future will feature the Crimson Tide. Georgia would love to play upset and secure a spot in the CFP. Current Line: Alabama -485 With a Win: Georgia: $2.31B Alabama: $85.10M
Memphis #102 Memphis Tigers vs. UCF #38 UCF Knights
Central Florida had many of the same issues as the Alabama's and Clemson's of the world, heavily favored in all games. However, the Knights also started out with a small endowment of just $156M. Another undefeated thus far has more than doubled their endowment, bringing the total to $359M. A win here and a trip to an NY6 may be enough for the Knights to crack the top 25, perhaps they even sacrificed their prize QB to make the odds even more favorable for growth. And then we have Memphis, the lowest ranked team to make a championship game. Memphis has shed 95% of their endowment, and hope to do some repair work in the championship game. Current Line: UCF -215 With a Win: Memphis: $8.22M UCF: $83.39M
Now we head west for a battle of 10-2 teams. Boise State's season has been pretty much a wash, despite winning 10 games. The Broncos are down 9% on the season but with two games left, they have a chance to be in the black. The Bulldogs have fared a little worse, down 42% on the season. As underdogs for the Championship, they may be on their way to repairing previous damage. Current Line: Boise State -140 With a Win: Fresno State: $51.17M Boise State: $32.16M
In a year of multiple Bulldogs, Tigers, and Huskies in the championship games, the Sun Belt's inaugural championship game will be played between two of the more unique names in college football. After nearly knocking off Penn State to start the season, the Mountaineers host this game as favorites, hoping to wipe out some of the 60% of damage to their original $95M endowment. The Ragin' Cajuns have more to gain - they can earn back much of their 85% decrease in endowment this season. Current Line: Appalachian State -905 With a Win: Louisiana: $86.62M Appalachian State: $2.09M
In a rematch of a game that took place just a few days ago, UAB will seek revenge against the Blue Raiders. UAB has been one of the better performing G5 teams throughout the season. Despite losing last week, they are one of the few teams that have still made a profit on the season. Should they exact revenge, they'll take some more profit with them. MTSU is just one loss away from breaking even on the season. If they want to recoup their losses, a win will be necessary on Saturday. Current Line: Middle Tennessee -140 With a Win: UAB: $262.77M MTSU: $10.51M
Additionally, the following teams are playing in makeup games:
I will be posting these storylines and information weekly at approximately 10 am on Tuesdays. If you have any suggestions or if I made any mistakes, please let me know! Once again, I have all 130 FBS teams with every single game throughout the season on a Google Sheet. Best of luck to whoever you are rooting for, I hope your donors came prepared to put their money where their mouths are!
I posted this on this sub a couple days ago, but for some reason I had problems with folks being unable to see it. I'm reposting, so if any of the lines have changed, feel free to ask in the comments! I'm marking the Hydra System as a failure and discontinuing the current setup. Instead I will begin experimenting with less teams/higher juice to see if it can be tweaked into a more successful system. I'll be turning my bankroll exclusively to picks and not investing in the Hydra System. Input is welcomed! I won't be adding together the weekly picks with the Hydra System any longer to determine how a week went. Picks are back to positive and this part of the season is where I typically do best. In the last two weeks, picks have gone 17-9 for a 65% win rate!
Week 8 Recap
1u - Wisconsin -30.5 at Illinois at -110 = Loss
1u - Boise State -6.5 at BYU for -110 = Loss
1u - Auburn -18 at Arkansas for -110 = WIN
1u - Minnesota -28 at Rutgers for -110 = WIN
1u - Missouri -21.5 at Vanderbilt for -110 = Loss
1u - Iowa State -6.5 at Texas Tech at -110 = WIN
1u - Baylor +3.5 at Oklahoma State for -110 = WIN
1u - LSU -19 at Mississippi State for -110 = WIN
2u - Navy -14 at South Florida for -110 = WIN
2u - Houston -22 at UConn for -110 = Loss
2u - Memphis -4.5 vs Tulane for -110 = WIN
Added Plays:
1u - Texas A&M -6.5 at Ole Miss for -110 = WIN
Week 8 picks went 8-4 for +4.5u Hydra System Week 8
Fresno State ML vs UNLV at -600 = WIN
Miami ML vs Georgia Tech at -1050 = Loss (in OT w/a horrible spot.. yikes)
Houston ML at UConn at -1800 = WIN
LSU ML at Mississippi State for -1165 = WIN
Auburn ML at Arkansas for -1100 = WIN
App State ML vs UL-Monroe at -600 = WIN
5u - parlay at -115 odds Hydra System went for -5.75u Adding together +4.5u from the picks and -5.75u from Hydra, we're at Week 8 Total = -1.25u Add in results from the past 7 weeks and we're at: SEASON TOTAL PICKS: 53-41 for +0.11u HYDRA SYSTEM TOTAL: 2-5 for -20.05u (eeeeeeesh)
Week 9 Picks
1u - Parlay: Arizona St ML at UCLA / Memphis ML at Tulsa for -102
1u - Liberty -7.5 at Rutgers at -105
1u - ECU ML vs USF for -110
1u - Arizona State -4 at UCLA for -115
1u - SDSU -12 at UNLV for -110
1u - Miami +5 at Pitt for -110
1u - Washington State +14 at Oregon for -110
2u - Penn St -5.5 at Michigan St for -110
2u - FIU -2.5 at MTSU for -110
2u - Memphis -10.5 at Tulsa for -110
2u - Missouri -10 at Kentucky for -115
Add Plays:
1u - New Mexico State +14.5 at Georgia Southern at -110
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. This week was brutal. The Hydra System is done. I don't want to make any public picks with it anymore out of fear of someone tailing. I have a lock this week, and it's not to try and catch up. This game legitimately measures up to the parameters of a lock play! Enjoy
Week 9 Recap
1u - Parlay: Arizona St ML at UCLA / Memphis ML at Tulsa for -102 = Loss
1u - Liberty -7.5 at Rutgers at -105 = Loss
1u - ECU ML vs USF for -110 = Loss
1u - Arizona State -4 at UCLA for -115 = Loss
1u - SDSU -12 at UNLV for -110 = Loss
1u - Miami +5 at Pitt for -110 = WIN
1u - Washington State +14 at Oregon for -110 = WIN
2u - Penn St -5.5 at Michigan St for -110 = WIN
2u - FIU -2.5 at MTSU for -110 = Loss
2u - Memphis -10.5 at Tulsa for -110 = Loss
2u - Missouri -10 at Kentucky for -115 = Loss
2u - Season Prop: Texas win total u9.5 for -105 = WIN
Added Plays:
1u - New Mexico State +14.5 at Georgia Southern at -110 = Loss
1u - LIVE Oklahoma -6.5 at Kansas State for -110 = Loss
2u - Texas A&M -11 vs Miss State for -110 = WIN
Week 9 picks went 5-10 for -6.32u Hydra System V2 Week 9
Minnesota ML vs Maryland at -900
Ohio State ML vs Wisconsin at -550
Louisiana Tech ML at UTEP at -1375
Fresno State ML vs Colorado State at -550
5u - Parlay for -150 odds Hydra System fails again for -7.5u. Season Total Picks: 58-51 for -6.21
For the last part in this series, I wanted to do two things that might actually help people win their bracket by answering two questions: is their a correlation between a protected (1-4) seeds profile and their chances of going deep into the tournament and how have similar teams in terms of raw efficiency performed in the past? The second part is literally just data collection. I have to shout out the wonderful barttorvik.com for the last time since that is where this tool originates and I merely put it together. PART 1 - TOP 4 SEEDS BASED ON ADJO AND ADJD Duke is good. We know this. But, how good? Well, they rank in the Top 10 in both AdjO and AdjD. But, wait, there's more! UNC, Virginia, and Gonzaga do as well. That seems like it's good. *checks with judges* Yep, it's good. Does it mean anything come tournament time and what about the teams that aren't our murderous quartet of #1 seeds? What Is This? Basic groupings of ten because I'm a human and we run off base ten. This means, it's looking at teams with similar profiles (i.e. ranked 11th-20th in AdjO and 21st-30th in AdjD) and how those teams performed. TOP 10 ADJO + TOP 10 ADJD The Teams: Virginia, Duke, UNC, Gonzaga There have been 11 #1 seeds in the past ten years to rank in the Top 10 on both sides of the ball heading into the tournament. Here's how they fared (a star means they lost the championship game) Won Title: 2 (2010 Duke / 2012 Kentucky) Made Final 4: 2 (2017 Gonzaga* / 2015 Kentucky) Lost Elite 8: 4 (2016 Kansas / 2016 Virginia / 2012 UNC / 2011 Kansas) Lost Sweet 16: 2 (2011 Duke / 2011 Ohio State) Lost 2nd Round: 1 (2010 Kansas) What It Means: I'm hesitant to do this, but this is easily the strongest group of #1 seeds in the past ten years. Only 1 out of the 11 previous teams didn't make the Sweet 16, losing in one of the most memorable upsets of the decade. But, it's not a guarantee of sustained success. Half of these teams didn't even make the Final 4. One of these teams is probably losing in the Sweet 16, but which one? Your guess is as good as mine. TOP 10 ADJO + 11-20 ADJD The Teams: Michigan State There have been 12 teams total, but only 4 #2 seeds who fit in this group. Made Final 4: 1 (2015 (#1) Wisconsin*) Lost Elite 8: 3 (2012 (#1) Syracuse, 2018 (#2) Duke, 2015 (#2) Arizona) Lost Sweet 16: 5 (2013 (#1) Indiana, 2010 (#1) Syracuse, 2018 (#2) Purdue, 2009 (#2) Duke, 2015 (#4) UNC) Lost 2nd Round: 3 (2017 (#1) Villanova, 2015 (#1) Villanova, 2013 (#1) Gonzaga What It Means: I'm picking against them, but the Spartans seem like a good bet to at least make the Sweet 16 based on recent history. The three teams to lose before then were all #1s with a double Villanova in there. But, no team in this group has ever won the title. TOP 10 ADJO + 31-40 ADJD The Teams: Tennessee, Purdue A little smaller grouping here as only six teams qualify in this group, but it's an interesting bunch... Won Title: 2 (2015 (#1) Duke, 2009 (#1) UNC) Made Final 4: 1 (2018 (#1) Kansas) Lost 2nd Round: 3 (2017 (#2) Duke, 2014 (#2) Kansas, 2016 (#4) Kentucky) What It Means: I am out on Tennessee. They might prove me wrong given Grant Williams and Schofield's pedigree and talent, but there's a lot working against them. Purdue is a more interesting case as you'll see later. It seems like they're screwed. Their raw #s have an amazing precedent (seriously, if you scroll down to look at one team, look at Purdue). TOP 10 ADJO + 40+ ADJD The Teams: LSU There are a whopping 23 teams that fit in this category so I won't break them all down. About half of the 23 didn't survive to the Sweet 16. The only two teams to make the Final 4 in this group was the 2013 Michigan team and 2014 Wisconsin team who IIRC fielded some of the top offenses in KenPom history. LSU is 9th on Torvik. There are some positive teams on the 3 seed line, though. 2010 Baylor and 2015 Notre Dame both made the Elite 8 coming from this grouping. So, it's not out of the realm of possibility. TOP 10 ADJD + 11-20 ADJO The Teams: Michigan Only 7 teams in this grouping. Four were #1 or #2 seeds. 2014 (#1) Florida - Final 4 2012 (#1) Michigan State - Sweet 16 2009 (#1) UConn - Final 4 2012 (#2) Kansas - Championship Game What It Means: Not sure, but it seems like teams that can lock down on D and are relatively efficient on offense are capable of making deep runs, just not winning the whole thing. That sounds like Michigan to me! Wait, this isn't cfb. No, stop, don't attack me. I'm sorry. 11-20 ADJO + 11-20 ADJD The Teams: Kentucky, Houston A solid 10 teams in this grouping that are very hit-or-miss. More than half (6) made the Elite 8, but only 2 made the Final 4 (the Buddy Hield Oklahoma team and the 2013 Syracuse team). Three teams didn't make it out of the 2nd Round including last year's Michigan State fiasco and the 2015 Kansas team that lost to an admittedly good Wichita State team that was underseeded. What It Means: Well, one of these teams isn't going to the Elite 8 because they're in the same side of the region. The question becomes do you like Wofford/Seton Hall over Kentucky or Iowa State/Ohio State over Houston more? 11-20 ADJO + 21-30 ADJ The Teams: Virginia Tech Only 4 teams fit this profile so sample size and all that. None made it past the Sweet 16. If you extend it out to any team with a defense outside of the Top 20 without a Top 10 offense, you get sixteen teams total. Only two made it to the Elite 8. 21-30 ADJO + TOP 10 ADJD The Teams: Texas Tech Another large grouping featuring 13 previous teams that fit this profile. Only two have made the Final 4: The 2013 Louisville team that was the #1 Overall Seed and the 2009 Michigan State team who was 2 seed. Five teams didn't make it out of the first two rounds. Two of them were Virginia teams including last year's not-so-good bois and the West Virginia team that got upset in a 3/14 game. What It Means: It means I'm tired and we're all probably screwed and you should just look at team colors or something. Or continue to the second part because it might be more enlightening. 31-40 ADJO + 11+ ADJD The Teams: Florida State, Kansas You're a team who's fine on offense. You don't have an elite D, though. That's a shame. Be nice to have. Hey, there's eight teams like us in the past ten years. I'm sure some of them made a Final 4 or something. No? Huh. An Elite 8? Yep! Okay, no. But, two of them did make the Sweet 16. One less than got knocked out in the 1st Round. Oh, that's bad. It sure is! 40+ ADJO + TOP 10 ADJD The Teams: Kansas State I lied. I said on Monday that K-State sucked and GIFs were for dummies and there's only one Manhattan and it sure isn't in the middle of nowhere. I was only looking at teams that had sub-40th ranked offenses. That doesn't look so good. But, if you have a really elite D? It gets better! 75% of these teams made the Sweet 16. 9 out of 12. Almost half of them made the Elite 8. It's not as dire as it seems for Kansas State. Of course, one of these teams was last year's Cincy team. And the Georgetown team that got stomped by FGCU. PART 2 - TORVIK'S SIMILAR TEAMS AND AVERAGE WINS Explanation: I can't really take credit for this. Torvik has an amazing feature where you can look at any team from this year, click on 'Similar Profiles' and then check boxes limiting the comparison to 'Tournament Teams Only' and 'Similar Seeds'. This measures raw efficiency and tempo (so not ranking relative to other teams like all my other research) giving you the 10 most similar teams within 1 seed line, i.e., if you are a #5 seed it will show you both 4 and 6 seeds. It displays how far each of those 10 teams advanced plus a total 'Average Wins'. That's the number displayed here. So, I did that for all 66 remaining teams in the tournament. The results are below along with notes on some of the teams. There are certainly some interesting things in here... EAST #1 Duke: 2.8 - Only two of the ten most-similar teams made the Final 4. #16 NDSU/NC Central: 0 #8 VCU: 0.7 - 3-4 in the 8 vs. 9 game - and the 2017 South Carolina team boosted the average - no other team made the Sweet 16) #9 UCF: 0-3 (3-3 in the 8 vs. 9 game) #5 Mississippi State: 2.1 - tied for 2nd highest in the region, only three of the ten most similar teams didn't make the Sweet 16 #12 Liberty: 0.2 - 2-8 among ten most similar teams #4 Virginia Tech: 1.9 - four teams went to the Elite 8, the others all failed to make it out the 2nd Round #13 St. Louis: 0.2 #6 Maryland: 1.2 - their top 3 comparisons all made the Sweet 16, nobody else made it out of the 2nd Round including all of the #6 seeds #11 Belmont: 0.3 - all the 11 seeds lost their first game #3 LSU: 1.4 - this is way closer to a 5 or 6 seed than a 3 seed #14 Yale: 0 #7 Louisville: 2.1 - tied for 2nd highest in the region, best for any seed lower than 6 #10 Minnesota: 0.5 - mostly 1st Round losses #2 Michigan State: 2.1 - lowest among all #2 seeds, none of their Top 10 comparisons made the Final 4 #15 Bradley: 0 WEST #1 Gonzaga: 2.8 - same average as Duke, but four of the ten teams didn't make it to the Elite 8 #16 FDU: 0 #8 Syracuse: 1.2 - either out in the first or to the Sweet 16 #9 Baylor: 0.7 - the 2011 Butler team heavily brings up this average, it's a lot of losses in 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 games #5 Marquette: 1.3 - no Elite 8 appearances, majority won 1st Round game #12 Murray State: 0.7 - half won their 1st Round game #4 Florida State: 1.6 - all the other 4 seeds in their top 10 comparisons made the Elite 8 #13 Vermont: 0 #6 Buffalo: 0.5 - teams are 4-6, none of their Top 10 made the Sweet 16 #11 Arizona St.: 0.9 - their three best comparisons all made the Sweet 16 / #11 St. John's: 0.7 #7 Nevada: 0.8 - only 1 made the Sweet 16, majority won their 1st round game #10 Florida: 1 - their two closest comparisons both made the Elite 8, nearly every other lost their 1st round game #2 Michigan: 2.6 - five went to the Elite 8, three went to the Final 4 #15 Montana: 0.2 (MTSU over MSU and Mercer over Duke were in their Top 10) SOUTH #1 Virginia: 2.7 - hard to decipher because their top comparisons are all Virginia teams #16 Gardner-Webb: 0 #8 Ole Miss: 0.7 - no Sweet 16 teams #9 Oklahoma: 0.5 #5 Wisconsin: 1.2 - lowest among 5 seeds, top comparisons didn't make Sweet 16 #12 Oregon: 0.3 - top 6 comparisons all lost their first game #4 Kansas State: 1.7 - top 3 comparisons all lost their first game, all the 4 seeds won a game #13 UC-Irvine: 0.1 #6 Villanova: 1.3 - most 6 seeds won this game, but failed to advance past that #11 St. Mary's: 0.2 - this was a little shocking to me #3 Purdue: 3.1!!!!!! - this is the 2nd highest average for any team in the tournament, 9 of their top 10 comparisons made at least the Elite 8, CHOOOOOOO CHOOOOOO #14 Old Dominion: 0 #7 Cincinnati: 0.8 - only two teams advanced to the Sweet 16 #10 Iowa: 0.5 #2 Tennessee: 2.4 #15 Colgate: 0.2 (two upsets in here) MIDWEST #1 UNC: 3.2 - highest among all teams, top comparisons all UNC teams that went 4 #16 Iona: 0 #8 Utah St.: 0.9 #9 Washington: 0.8 - both Utah State and Washington have a few sleepers in there #5 Auburn: 1.2 - none of their comparisons made the Sweet 16 #12 New Mexico St.: 0.5 - similar teams are 3-7 #4 Kansas: 1 - YIKES! #13 Northeastern: 0.2 - two wins, but both were #12 seeds #6 Iowa State: 1.4 #11 Ohio State: 0 - yep, that's right, 0-10 #3 Houston: 2.2 #14 Georgia State: 0.4 #7 Wofford: 1.4 - three out of their top five closest comparisons made the Sweet 16 our further #10 Seton Hall: 0.7 #2 Kentucky: 2.3 - four of their ten comparisons made the Elite 8 #15 Abilene Christian: 0.2 AND THAT'S IT FOR THIS YEAR! I hope everyone enjoyed. Sorry about the lateness on this. Real life got in the way. I'm going to make my picks later tonight. Hopefully, this pans out otherwise I'll be exposed as a horrible fraud. Thanks again for reading or browsing and all the gold/silver. Lastly and most importantly, enjoy the games. It's the most wonderful time of the year!
Last week I did not do so well with UCLA +3 and Stanford -13.5 (Fucking 1 point). I also picked all the games Bovada had available on Thursday afternoon (without betting) and I went 20-18-1, so hopefully I can improve this week. These are a couple of games I am interested in this week. Thursday Night Louisville -15 at Syracuse - Lamar Jackson looked amazing in their win vs Charlotte and their offense appeared to be hitting on all cylinders. Syracuse had a nice win over Colgate last week but I think Lamar Jackson and Louisville will be too much for Syracuse to handle. I probably won't be betting on this one because it is a Friday away game but I think Louisville -15 would be a solid pick. Saturday 12et Army -10 vs Rice - Army had an impressive win on the road against Temple last week. Rice is coming off a disappointing 46-14 loss at Western Kentucky. I don't expect Army to put up the same number of points but I do like them -10 at home. Saturday 12et UMass +17 vs Boston College this game is at Gillette Stadium. Boston College played well vs Georgia Tech last week but the offense still did not appear to be there. Umass covered the spread last week against Florida losing 24-7. If umass can score any points I think it will be tough for Boston College to win by more than 17. Saturday 2:30et Ohio +3 at Kansas this game really boggles my mind. Kansas had a nice win last week vs Rhode Island, but they are still Kansas. Ohio lost an overtime game vs Texas State last week. I find it hard to believe that Kansas is actually favored in a game. Saturday 3:30et Duke -5 vs Wake Forest Duke had a nice win vs North Carolina Central last week and Wake Forest pulled off a 7-3 vs Tulane last week. Wake Forest has almost no offense and I don't expect them to keep up with Duke. Saturday 3:30 et Navy -3.5 vs UCONN This is probably my favorite pick of the week. Navy cruised to victory last week vs Fordham. UCONN won a 24-21 struggle vs Maine last week. Navy should cover this easily at home. That's what I have for this week. Let me know what you think. I will probably be betting on Navy -3.5 and Duke -5 because those are the ones I feel most confident about. Edit: I guess BC had a little more offense than I thought with their win 26-7
2020 NCBCA NT Preview After an interesting regular season with 10 teams with at least 27 wins and some dramatic conference tournaments, surely the madness won't stop as we come to the big dance. We talked to a few coaches around the NCBCA to find out what they think will happen in this year's National Tournament. Which team will win the National Championship? Half of the coaches we talked to told us that they believe Memphis will be national champs. Multiple coaches declared that Memphis is the most talented team in the country, so you shouldn't bet against them despite their #2 seed. If you are betting against them, your best bet would be Colorado State according to our sources. But don't be surprised if Indiana or Gonzaga also make a run to the championship with coaches also putting their names in the conversation. What team below a 4th seed is the most dangerous "dark horse"? Nebraska is the most likely Cinderella of the tournament. A coach from the ACC said he believes that the Cornhuskers can make the Elite 8, beating UCONN and Texas A&M along the way since "A&M would be coming into the game with an injured starter and very little depth at guard". The other dark horse to look out for is Arizona. "There were only a few moments away from beating Oregon in the CT", said one highly respected PCC coach, so they have the ability to deliver an upset or two. What #1-3 seed is most likely to be upset in the first round? It doesn't look like we will have repeat of last year's champions with Kentucky considered the team most likely to be upset in the round of 32. Don't be surprised if UCLA pulls off the upset in this battle of blue-bloods. One PCC coach from California said, "In terms of matchup, UCLA isn't that far from a talent aspect so they can beat Kentucky. Another reputable coach from the ACC recalled that Kentucky only beat UCLA by 8 at home, and he "was curious to see how they'll do on neutral ground." Which region is the toughest? Half of the coaches we talked to said the West region, consisting of Syracuse, Memphis, North Carolina, and Stanford as contenders, is the hardest region to get through. Two ACC powerhouses, arguably the most talented team in the NCBCA, and a team coached by the same man who led Kentucky to a national championship last year. We're looking forward to this one. The South region, with the likes of Indiana, Gonzaga, Boston College, and Oregon competing for one spot in the Final Four, is also expected to be a bloodbath. Indiana will have a tough road to get back to the title game. Which region is the easiest? The consensus among coaches is that the East region* is probably the least competitive. It is hard to picture a team other than Duke or Missouri winning that region. The Midwest region was also considered a little lackluster, with Texas A&M, Colorado State, Louisville, and Connecticut* as the top seeds in that section. First Round Match-up Predictions 1 Syracuse vs. 8 Alabama In the poll, Syracuse was the unanimous favorites to win this matchup. Despite that, numerous coaches stated that this game definitely has an upset factor to it. Hozanek stated "This game will be a tough opener for Syracuse. Alabama has one of the strongest starting fives in the country and I can see them winning this. However, Alabama's lack of bench makes me believe Cuse will come out on top." So despite there being a lack of parity in these responses, people do see the possibility of an 8 over 1 upset here. My prediction is Alabama will keep it close for a half before their lack of depth catches up to them and Syracuse distances themselves in the second half. 4 Stanford vs. 5 Marquette In this one we had the Cardinal, led by potential COY hazyel to their first NT in the NCBCA era taking on Marquette. This one was also unanimous, with everyone who voted choosing Stanford. Unlike the Syracuse game, many people thought that Stanford would win due to the better starting five. Marquette's bench was slightly better, which should keep them in it, but a strong bench will likely lead Stanford to a close win. 3 North Carolina vs. 6 Purdue This happened to be the only matchup of the West region with any kind of parity at all, with UNC grabbing 66.7% of the votes. The most interesting and true reasoning of all of it was said by hazyel. "Purdue's best player is out. Easy win for UNC" Short and sweet, that might be all that's needed. Purdue is a solid team, but without their best player, they may not stand a chance. North Carolina should be able to move to the next round. 2 Memphis vs. 7 VCU In the final game of the region for the first round, Memphis cough cough I mean Canada, got all the votes for the win. VCU has had their best season so far up to this point, but Memphis seems a little too good this year, as many were surprised they landed a 2nd seed and not a 1st seed. No one provided great reasoning, as many felt this one doesn't need it. Memphis should run away with this from the get-go and win easily. 1 Texas A&M vs. 8 Wichita State This game had an interesting story line added to it recently as Matt has stepped back in to man Texas A&M during their run for the title. It will be very interesting to see if he can provide a spark here in the NT. This game was unanimous too, going in TAMU's favor. Hozanek stated "I can see this being the blowout of the NT. Wichita State simply can't keep up with the power of Texas A&M." Quite a few people are now rooting for TAMU so that Matt can get one title before he really retires. This game should be one that stops him from that title as TAMU should blow out Wichita State. 4 Connecticut vs. 5 Nebraska This was an interesting seeding by the game, as a few felt UConn should have received a higher seeding. However, they take on Nebraska who is in the NT for the second straight season, and is looking to make some noise for emoji permissions for their Head Coach. This one had UConn grabbing 66.7% of the votes, and one of the reasons was stated by hazyel: "Nebraska lacks bigmen off the bench whereas UConn is great overall." That reason is a big part of why, but it isn't condemning. It would be a surprise to some to see the Cornhuskers pull this off, but others are expecting them to do it. I myself see UConn coming away in a close game. 3 Louisville vs. 6 USC This poll saw Louisville taking 77.8% of the votes. Louisville, despite an early worry about their guard depth, had a great year before the CT. Southern Cal did pretty well in a tough PCC conference that saw 10 teams make the NT. The biggest reason for most of the people picking Louisville was the depth comparison. Many people feel that USC does not have enough depth to hang with Louisville. Look for a pretty close first half and then the Cardinals to run away with it. 2 Colorado State vs. 7 Vanderbilt In the final game of this region, like quite a few games before it, there was a unanimous winner. Colorado State grabbed 100% of the votes, and there wasn't much of a reason that needed to be said. Colorado State capped off a fantastic season by winning the PCC championship, which is the toughest conference in the NCBCA. Nearly everyone who voted for this didn't even need to take a second thought, myself included. Colorado State will easily take this and advance into the sweet 16. 1 Indiana vs 8 Oregon State Coming into the national tournament, Indiana isn’t the overwhelming favorite they have been in recent years. However, they are the favorites to win the South Region and a favorite to some to win the whole tournament. That being said no coaches or fans see Oregon State being a problem. 4 Oregon vs 5 Baylor Coming fresh off of three straight elite eight appearances, Oregon is back and looking to finally get into the final four. The first obstacle on their way to a deep national tournament run is the Baylor Bears. Hazyel, Stanford’s head coach stated “They have a far better starting 5 than Baylor. No question.” Oregon has had a far better season to this point and a unanimous vote has me sure that Oregon will come out on top of this one. 3 Boston College vs 6 California Despite having one of the most talented teams in the country, California’s season has been far from spectacular. They are now set to face the Boston College Eagles who are considered a favorite among some to win the South Region. Hazyel stated “Although Cal can be seen as a sleeper team, Boston College will blow them out. Heard it here first.” Out of all the coaches who voted only one believes that Cal will win. 2 Gonzaga vs 7 Cincinnati Gonzaga is coming off two nailbiter losses and has many coaches wondering if they can break this spell coming into a tough game against Cincinnati. Luckily for them, Cincinnati is coming off their worst season in years and has many coaches doubting they can compete with Zaga. The vote for this game, much like the others was unanimous with some even saying that it’ll be a blowout loss. 1 Duke vs 8 Arizona State Barely managing to make the NT, Arizona State will be making their first appearance since 2014. However, they are tasked with facing the overwhelming East Region favorites Duke. Unsurprisingly, Duke are the unanimous favorites with all agreeing that Duke is just the overall better team. 4 Texas vs 5 Arizona Despite being the lower seed, Arizona is the favorite in this match garnering 77.8% of votes. Many coaches have stated that Arizona is their dark horse coming into the NT and expect them to come out victorious in this one. However, Texas are undoubtedly the hotter team coming into this match. Finishing the regular season 9-1 and winning the MWC CT is sure to have both their confidence and morale high. On the other hand, Arizona finished the regular season 6-4 and with a PCC CT semifinal exit. 3 Kentucky vs 6 UCLA Kentucky, now under a new head coach are coming off a national championship title and more recently a SEC CT final loss. Unlike most other first round match ups this one isn’t nearly as lopsided. Only 66.7% believe Kentucky will win this one with many coaches seeing this match as a possible first round upset. Coaches are eager to see if Kentucky can make a run to defend their title. 2 Missouri vs 7 Wisconsin Wisconsin were considered one of the best teams in the nation coming into the season, but that has been far from the truth. Only managing to receive a 7th seed they are now set to vs Missouri who are the unanimous favorites in this match up. Missouri finished off the season 9-1 and capped it off with a MWC CT title. Wisconsin has had the opposite of Missouri’s success as they’ve only managed to win 3 out of their 6 last contests. Region Winner Predictions
West: Memphis(78%), Syracuse(22%)
Midwest: Colorado State(78%), Texas A&M(22%)
South: Indiana(67%), Gonzaga, Oregon, Boston College (each 11%)
East: Duke(67%), Mizzou (33%)
Projected Final Four: Memphis vs. Colorado State and Indiana vs. Duke
ULM+32.5 vs Auburn Texas (ML) vs Oklahoma State Clemson pk vs Louisville Texas A&M -17.5 vs. South Carolina Stanford +3.5 vs Washington Michigan St -7.5 vs. Indiana Troy -12.5 vs Idaho South Florida -5.5 vs. Cincinnati TCU+3.5 vs. Oklahoma Utah/Cal Over (67) Kansas/Texas Tech Over (80) Also have a stupid parlay of heavy favorites. Texas Tech over Kansas Houston over UCONN BYU over Toledo Ohio State over Rutgers Notre Dame over Syracuse Nebraska over Illinois Alabama over Kentucky Texas A&M over South Carolina UCLA over Arizona Baylor over Iowa State San Diego State over South Alabama Ain't that a bitch. Boise State over Utah State Bet 10 to win $24.
I wrote some March Madness sonnets with poor rhythm last night. South Kansas is the cream of this group, as you see But UConn, Mark Turgeon and Cal all loom The Jayhawks will have to play Austin Peay Good mid-season form, Iowa hopes to resume Could the Rainbow Warriors triumph early? Maybe the Shockers could pull off a run... Will South Dakota State prove to be surly? Or will Miami at last get some recognition? Villanova is the two-seed, but they tend to flop But could this be the year it all comes together? 'Zona's offense will be tough to stop, Colorado's draw is tougher than leather Or will Buffalo, Temple, or UNC Asheville devise, A miraculous plan that will leave us surprised... West "Oregon is overrated", so some pundits say, But they crushed the Pac-12 without breaking a sweat Holy Cross and Bill Carmody have had some great days, But on the Crusaders and Southern, no one will bet It's Shaka Smart vs. Wes Washpun in OKC While Shaka's old squad faces Oregon State St. Joe's will hope to knock off Cincinnati UNC Wilmington plays a team that many will hate Buddy's a dangerous two seed, so you've heard He could face the Aggies, or Green Bay, perhaps? Baylor plays Yale, don't sleep on the nerds! There could be two Texas showdowns, barring a mishap This region is fun and should be wide-open But good luck trying to pick who will win East There are many good teams in this region of doom, No. 1 UNC, will play FGCU But although Calipari has flustered and fumed, Kentucky's a 4 and might face Yogi's crew That is, if both teams can escape the first round, Chattanooga and Stony Brook have something to prove On the other side, maybe Xavier will resound Weber State is not good, but Wisconsin has moved, From disappointment to seven seed, thanks to Nigel Hayes SF Austin and West Virginia play super-fast, Michigan should end all the Tulsa malaise, Pittsburgh is average, I'm not sure they will last USC plays Providence in the eight versus nine Ben Bentil's a monster, but points are a grind... Midwest Virginia and Michigan State, it's set in stone! Not so fast, there's still a few roadblocks, Utah and Purdue are two tall unknowns, And I kinda like Arkansas Little-Rock Hampton, sixteen, will play UVA, one Texas Tech/Butler will be a fun contest It's been a while since 'Cuse last won, But Boeheim is in, though it's caused some unrest Isaiah Whitehead and Seton Hall are mighty exciting Iona could challenge Iowa State if at its best, But Wiltjer's Bulldogs can also be biting, Fresno State somehow won the Mountain West But seriously, there's one way I think this region will end Either Brogdon or Valentine, who will the Midwest send?
My formula is really crude and probably needs tweaking if anyone has suggestions. For time's sake I'm only working on the top 10 teams, according to the Coaches Poll. As new teams move in and out I will work with all of them, so the list should be ever-expanding. The system factors in Points Per Game (divided by 10), Assist+Takeaways/Giveaways, and effective Field Goal percentage. I am leaving out rebounds (for now) because I feel like they lean more towards luck than skill. Takeaways = total opponents turnovers. More than just steals, because even a bad throw or a traveling violation that a team doesn't get credit for can be caused by good defense. Giveaways = total turnovers committed by the team in question. I am combining assists and takeaways because it shows the quality of a team away from the ball. I take all the numbers and multiply them because that gives me a reasonable number. Here is the top 10 according to this calculation: Change from previous week's rank/points in parenthesis
UCONN: 22.3176 (0/0)
Baylor: 20.6391 (0-0.7493)
South Carolina: 14.8729 (0/0)
Kentucky: 13.3427 (0/-1.4501)
Notre Dame: 13.2382 (0/+0.1594)
Louisville: 12.8399 (+1/+2.1122)
Duke: 12.1753 (-1/0)
Maryland: 10.1281 (+1/1.7409)
Stanford: 10.1111 (-1/-0.3331)
Tennessee: 8.54036 (0/+0.02308)
Week 4, Week 3, Week 2, Week 1 Lots of turnovers, few assists, and only 73 points against a lowly East Tennessee State proved costly for Kentucky numerically, but didn’t hurt their positioning…yet. Louisville got a big boost from their 108 points against Austin Peay and the big assist+takeaway-to-giveaway ratio that came with it. Maryland got a nice bump from their 105-49 win over Siena, dishing 30 assists and forcing 29 turnovers, along with an eFG% of 67.7% with the help of 10-15 shooting from beyond the arc. I’m willing to bet this was finals week for UCONN, South Carolina, and Duke, as none of them played a game this past week. Week in review: This was a fun week of basketball. There were 3 top 25 matchups this week, with #21 Iowa taking on #17 Iowa State, #6 Stanford hosting #23 Gonzaga, and #12 Penn State hosting #24 Texas A&M. Here are some games worth noting (top 3 links go to winning teams’ websites):
Games to watch: Tuesday December 17, 7PM ET #1 UCONN at #2 Duke Game of the week on ESPN2 Wednesday December 18, 7PM ET #15 North Carolina at #10 South Carolina Saturday December 21, 1 PM ET #11 Colorado at #7 Louisville Saturday December 21, 4:30 PM ET # 3 Tennessee at #6 Stanford Sunday December 22, 1 PM ET #22 California vs. #1 UCONN on ESPN Sunday December 22, 3 PM ET #2 Duke at #5 Kentucky I hope to get a pregame breakdown on most, if not all of these games. There WILL be a game thread for the Duke/UCONN game; it may be attached to the pregame breakdown.
UConn is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in Final Four games since 1999 Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark . Download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google ... Kentucky is favored but UConn bites hard as an underdog. Check the NCAA championship game betting odds and computer pick as the Huskies face the Wildcats. By OddsShark Apr 7, 2014, 10:23am EDT NCAAB Championship: Kentucky Wildcats vs UConn Huskies Preview April 10, 2014 April 6, 2014 by Marilee Gallagher In what is perhaps the most unlikely final in NCAA basketball tournament history, the seventh seeded UConn Huskies will play the eighth seeded Kentucky Wildcats for the March Madness National Championship on Monday (9:10pm ET, CBS) . Kentucky (-2.5) 140 vs. Connecticut. Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Kentucky 7-1 in nonconference games, 8-2 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, 16-5 to Big East, but 3-7 off straight up win. UConn is 6-0 neutral site games as an underdog, 9-1 10 non-conference games, 26-9 following a S.U. win, 23-8 as underdogs. NCAA Final Four betting preview and pick: UConn vs. Kentucky. Mar 29, 2011 By: Covers Staff. UConn is a 2-point underdog versus Kentucky in the Final Four.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss 2/15/20 Free College Basketball Pick ...
Kentucky vs Ole Miss 2/15/20 Free College Basketball Pick and Prediction CBB Betting Tips The Ole Miss Rebels visit the Kentucky Wildcats in Saturday college... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. *DISCLAIMER* I do not own the rights to this footage .All Video Footage and Rights Property of XOS Digital Technologies. I am using this footage as part of t... A very entertaining game saw both Kentucky and UConn put on big runs in the first half, before settling in for a tight conclusion. Of course, though, the story coming out of it is John Wall, who ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
