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Drop your kicker week 4: Hold Andy Isabella, add Justin Jackson
First, I want to thank everyone for reading last week, and also for shouting me out in this sub when my Isabella take hit. I had a ton of fun screaming in my living room when Isabella scored twice as a 1% rostered player. Before I get to this week’s pickup, I wanted to spend a moment to review where we’re at with players I recommended in previous weeks. So far, every player I’ve recommended has gone on to score a touchdown the week that I recommended them. That kind of success rate is unsustainable. I’m bound to hit regression at some point. What I hope I’ve demonstrated so far, is that if we find data to support our claims, we can find guys on the waiver wire that the hive mind has dismissed unfairly. That’s how we win. On most of my rosters, I try and keep one slot open to cycle through players who might break out soon. To me this is a better use of your bench spots than holding a player who will likely be just barely better than what is on the waiver wire anyway. We want to shoot for upside whenever we can. Even if we’re more skilled than our opponents, we can expect to lose most leagues we’re in. This is a game with a lot of variance, so we want to make moves that might give us enough upside to win the whole damn thing. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is in line for a huge workload with the news that Allen Lazard went to IR. This one is interesting, because I was ultimately wrong about MVS overtaking Lazard for the WR2 role on the Packers, but now that doesn’t matter. Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball well and we should have MVS in our lineups this week, since the Falcons pass defense is terrible. Someone might have dropped MVS after his dud last week. I would double check and see if he’s available. Corey Davis has been meh, and now he’s unexpectedly on bye this week. In smaller leagues, I might consider dropping him, but if you have the room, I would hold for now. Adam Humphries is on the Covid list, so Davis is in line for more targets if the Titans are able to play week 5. Also, AJ Brown is set to return, which might leave Corey Davis a bit more open as he battles with lesser cornerbacks going forward. Andy Isabella is still poised to break out. I think it’s clear at this point that he’s a better player than Christian Kirk. Last week, Isabella was used more in the slot and got 2 red zone targets, which he converted into two touchdowns on limited snaps. Christian Kirk and Deandre Hopkins are both questionable for week 4 right now, and I would certainly be willing to start Isabella if both Kirk and Hopkins were to sit this week. I added Isabella in every single league where I didn’t have him already, and I think you should too. If both Kirk and Hopkins play, I’m going to keep him on my bench. On to this week’s “drop your kicker” player of the week… Justin Jackson. Now to get this out of the way, I’m not saying Justin Jackson is necessarily going to see playing time right away. I’m not saying to add him over guys like Brian Hill or Rex Burkhead who you’ve heard about all week. As a reminder, this column is intended for people who play in deeper leagues, with at least 12 teams, where you can start 3WR and a flex, and 6-8 bench spots. This advice is also primarily for people who play in FAAB leagues, where pickups become expensive after they break out. We want to add these players before they breakout so we don’t have to use our precious FAAB dollars on them later. Justin Jackson is third on the depth chart right now, so why are we adding a guy who Numberfire predicts a workload of less than one touch for? Going into the season, it was unclear who the number 2 RB on the depth chart would be for Chargers. A lot of people started to hear buzz about Joshua Kelley this off season, and for managers who scooped him up, he’s been a good fantasy asset so far. He’s been getting a lot more work than your typical back up RB, and this whole offense is doing a lot better with Justin Herbert under center. Kelley is still a better add than Justin Jackson if for some reason he’s still available. I would also add guys like Brian Hill over Jackson. But that’s not why you’re here. This column is for people in deep leagues who have nothing left on the waiver wire. Joshua Kelley lost a fumble last week. Rookie QB Justin Herbert also threw an interception and lost a fumble as well. The Chargers lost their second game in a row at least in part due to those turnovers. Coach Lynn has already publicly shared that he has plays ready for Justin Jackson if he is going to be active. I imagine Jackson will get at least a few touches, based on what Lynn is saying. But what happens if Kelley fumbles again? Lynn sounded pretty angry about the turnovers at the end of the game last week, and he did start using Ekeler way more after Kelley fumbled last week. Even if Jackson is not active for this game, he still has an out if there is an injury ahead of him, or Kelley fumbles the back up role away. I’m not saying to start Justin Jackson this week. I’m not even saying to add him over Kelley. In the two leagues where I have Kelley, I added Justin Jackson also. We’ve seen that this backfield can accommodate two productive RBs at once. Both this year with Ekeler and Kelley, and in previous years with Ekeler and Melvin Gordon. Imagine if Ekeler has a season ending injury tomorrow. You might actually have not one but two starters on a weekly basis. At one point this season Kelley and Ekeler were both in the top ten RBs in terms of touches. That’s the kind of opportunity share we should be chasing. A lot of people were drafting Jackson early this off season, since it wasn’t clear that Kelley had secured the number 2 job until he broke out in week 1. Jackson was still getting work that game before he left with an injury. Justin Jackson comes from Northwestern, which doesn’t necessarily have a history of producing great NFL running backs, but we already saw Jackson be productive at the NFL level, so I think we can throw our college evaluations out the window, now that he’s shown he can produce in the NFL. In 2018, he had two games with over 15 PPR points helping a lot of people dealing with RB injuries late in the season who grabbed him off the waiver wire. He didn’t do nearly as much last year, but he also just didn’t have nearly as much opportunity. On player profiler, we can see that Jackson has an 84th percentile burst score, which can be predictive of RB success in the NFL. He also had a high college target share of 12.8% which is in the 87th percentile. Running backs who have a good target share in college tend to do better than those RBs whose college team did not trust them in the passing game. Joshua Kelley has a low 23rd percentile burst score, and 9.2% percent target share at UCLA, which is in the 69th percentile. All we can really do when looking at real deep league plays is find a player who has the talent to produce, who also has a route to more opportunity. The Chargers have the third lowest implied team total according to Vegas betting lines, and we saw last week that Kelley’s usage can be game flow dependent. I think they’re more comfortable using Jackson as a pass catcher than they are Kelley. So if the Chargers fall behind, and they don’t want to give Ekeler too much of a workload, we could definitely see them turn to Justin Jackson. And then we just wait and see if he produces. If he doesn’t we simply swap him out for next week’s top waiver claims. Please don’t start Jackson over better options this week. And speaking of better options, you can find a player I would pick up instead if I needed a RB starter this week over on my Twitter. If you like my column, consider giving me a follow. Thanks for reading, and remember, churn that roster!
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives. PREVIOUSLY:
WWE hit the reset button again with a new storyline assigning general managers to each brand, and it featured the shocking debut of Eric Bischoff. The new storyline will have Bischoff as the heel GM of Raw, while Stephanie McMahon will be the babyface GM of Smackdown, while Vince McMahon will take more of a backseat role and reduce his TV presence. Of course, just 5 weeks ago, Vince panicked and blew up the existing "feuding GMs" storyline between himself and Ric Flair, so now we're re-starting it with new people I guess. It feels like a last-ditch effort to save the brand extension, which has been an utter flop since day one, with no effort to differentiate the shows and only resulting in diluting the talent and falling ratings.
Bischoff and McMahon struck a secret deal about 10 days prior to his debut. Bischoff had talks with WWE last year about coming in during the original Invasion angle, except they only wanted him to do a one-off match with Vince for the PPV (which Vince would obviously have won), but Bischoff turned down that offer. But this time, they agreed to a more long-term deal. Bischoff didn't know he was going to debut on Raw until just a day or two prior, when Vince called him and told him to be there. The whole thing was kept secret and almost no one other than Vince himself knew about it. This is believed to be a unique contract, in which it's a short-term deal with the option to renew it for longer-term if the angle gets over. His only role is as a television character, it's strictly a performance contract. Bischoff is not going to be a part of management or creative.
When Bischoff walked across the screen in the backstage segment, almost everyone in the company was just as shocked as the viewers at home. Bischoff's debut saw him come out and hug Vince, which Dave thinks about is the dumbest possible way to introduce him. Sure, the Invasion angle is over but WCW's corpse isn't completely cold yet. It's only been a year or so. There is probably still plenty of money to be made in Bischoff as an outsider trying to destroy Vince McMahon and the WWE. But as always, that would involve Vince allowing himself or WWE to look vulnerable against an "outsider" and his utter refusal to do that is a big part of what tanked the Invasion. But that's par for the course. Bischoff cut a promo, giving the fake "WWE version" of the Monday Night Wars history (Dave points out multiple inaccuracies that WWE still clings on today, such as claiming they stole Hulk Hogan from WWF. Of course, Hulk had been in NJPW and hadn't worked for WWF for nearly a year at the time WCW signed him. Things like that.). Dave thinks it became one of those promos full of old stuff or inside references where so much of it is about things that the average fan doesn't know or care about. Dave thinks most of this audience in 2002 isn't familiar with Alundra Blayze, they don't know Raw used to be taped instead of live, and they don't care about 83-week TV ratings streaks (Dave also notes that Bischoff said 84 on this show, which is incorrect). And once again, it became one of those promos talking about how much WWE sucks lately, which is something you don't want to keep pointing out to the fans who are still watching because you just make them feel dumb for supporting something that even the people producing it knows sucks. Shit like that is partly what drove off WCW fans. Bischoff also gloated about almost putting WWE out of business, and to the many guys in the locker room who remember that vividly, it wasn't a joke or a storyline. Those are guys who really were fighting for their job against a guy who really was trying to put them out of business. Bischoff has tremendous heat from the locker room, with a lot of people who worked for him in WCW or who resent him from the WWE side....they don't want Bischoff there.
This angle was going to take place regardless, but it's thought that the injury to Kevin Nash may have moved things up a couple of weeks because Vince once again panicked when his plans went down in flames. Nash had surgery last week. Because of the location of the tear, it's not quite as serious as the tear Triple H suffered last year. But Nash is also 10 years older. However, he has vowed to return, noting he doesn't want his career to end like that. With his age and his track record of injuries (this is his 22nd surgery, dating back to his collegiate basketball days), Dave isn't sure how much Nash will be able to offer if/when he returns next year. Also, while nobody wanted Nash to get hurt, the mood in the locker room was said to be much happier this week without him around, as the whole Nash/X-Pac/Shawn/Triple H group isn't very well liked these days (the more things change...)
Speaking of X-Pac, a weird situation with him this week led to him being suspended by WWE. The day of the Raw when Nash tore his quad, X-Pac missed his flight to the show. Why? Well, he was hospitalized earlier that day in Minneapolis. Again, you ask, why? No idea. Sounds like X-Pac sure would like to know also. He called WWE saying he was in the emergency room and had no idea how he got there. He left the ER and made new travel arrangements and he got to Raw 90 minutes before the show started. And then he went out there that night and worked his match (and Dave says looked more impressive than he had in a long time). However, after the match, he still couldn't explain to WWE officials how or why he was in the hospital earlier that day and so they were naturally suspicious. As a result, X-Pac has been suspended and removed from all upcoming bookings until they get a medical report on what the deal is. Dave says X-Pac has been acting out of control for weeks now and it's been well-documented (threatening to quit if match finishes weren't changed week after week). The feeling backstage was that as long as Nash was around to go to bat for him, he was basically protected, but no longer. With Hall fired, Nash out for probably a year, X-Pac suspended, and Hogan a babyface, the feeling within the company is that the NWO angle is dead. Shawn Michaels is still expected to appear at upcoming house shows and Raws in some new role, since much of the advertising for those shows was based around him appearing, but this is probably the end of the road for the NWO. (This kinda flew under the radar, but yeah, X-Pac never wrestled another match in WWE. The match where Nash tore his quad remains to this day the last time X-Pac ever worked a match in a WWE ring. He gets released soon after this and we all know in retrospect that he was dealing with some drug issues throughout this time).
Dave provides some details on Vince Russo's first (and only) creative meeting when he was briefly rehired by WWE last month. Russo apparently proposed a Raw vs. Smackdown feud that would eventually lead to reviving one of them as WCW and reigniting the WCW vs. WWE war. This time, they would have Eric Bischoff leading the WCW side, while Russo suggested Mick Foley as the leader of the WWE side. It was pretty much made clear to Russo during the meeting that if they were to do a Raw vs. Smackdown angle, it would be Stephanie in charge of the WWE side, not Foley, and sure enough, that's what is expected to happen (but without the whole WCW-revival part). Russo's idea was pretty much a combination of the 2001 Invasion angle and the 2000 WCW Bischoff/Russo angle. Dave notes that Russo wanted to essentially start from scratch again, strip everyone of their belts the way they did in 2000, and bring in Bret Hart and Goldberg to be involved as well.
A big recap of UFC's debut show in England, which featured rising star Frank Mir getting beat in what should have been an upset, but word is Mir didn't take the fight seriously and barely trained. As a result, he got murked in the first round. Also, while in England, some people in Tito Ortiz's camp got into a big drunken bar brawl with fellow fighter Lee Murray. Chuck Liddell was somewhere involved too. Anyway, long story short, some people tell the story that Murray knocked Ortiz out. Ortiz denies it (to this day, this is a famous MMA story and both men tell different versions, so depending on who you believe I guess).
TNA's 4th show ended with a strong angle that actually got them some national publicity. It involved Tennessee Titans players Frank Miller and Zach Piller hopping the rail and attacking Jeff Jarrett and some other wrestlers, resulting in a big brawl to end the show. So how much of it was real or shoot? Well, Russo is involved, so who knows. The official story is that Jarrett and Piller were supposed to shove each other from across the rail, but that's it. From NFL sources, Dave has actually heard the same thing. It was supposed to stop at a shoving confrontation, and then Malice would come pull Jarrett away. That was the story as Russo allegedly wrote it. But reportedly, Piller had been drinking and he ended up hopping the rail and straight up overpowered Jarrett like it was nothing and took him down. Whether this was a shoot or a work is still unknown, but it ended up getting them coverage on SportsCenter and Dave says it's possible it was a work that only a few people were in on. If it was a work, nobody else was in on it. Ron Harris, who works backstage, almost rushed to the ring to save Jarrett and Malice (who wasn't supposed to touch the football players) got involved and broke it up quickly. After the show, the players were backstage laughing and joking with Jarrett and Miller has been openly telling people it was all planned and they were told to make it look as real as possible, but it's still unknown if jumping the rail and tackling Jarrett was part of the plan or not. Several other Titans players were at ringside with them and saw it unfold, but mostly didn't get involved. So now after the publicity, TNA is trying to see if they can make a match out of this. Either way, it's starting to feel like an elaborate work that none of the rest of the roster was clued in on, which is exactly the kind of shit Russo used to do constantly in WCW that soured morale among the locker room, and for this to happen on Russo's first night in, with an angle he wrote, sure feels a little familiar.
Puerto Rico's IWA had its most successful show in company history, drawing more than 11,000 fans (without a single WWE name on the card) to see the payoff of an angle with Savio Vega fighting for control of the company. WHO SAID SAVIO AIN'T A DRAW?!
On the other side of things, WWC has postponed its anniversary show from August to September in order to give themselves more time to build up big angles and storylines. Seems like something they probably should have been planning earlier? IWA has become the dominant promotion in Puerto Rico and WWC felt they didn't have the build-up necessary to do a big-money show right now. Especially after this IWA show did such big business, anything less would be an embarrassment.
Bischoff's debut on Raw was a pretty big hit. How big, you ask? During Bischoff's in-ring promo after his debut, Raw added nearly 1.1 million new viewers from the previous segment. Meaning that as soon as Bischoff walked across the screen backstage, tons of wrestling fans started calling their friends telling them, "Holy shit, Eric Bischoff is on Raw, turn it on!" The bad news is that as soon as Bischoff's promo was over, a lot of them tuned right back out, leading to a huge drop-off for the rest of the show. On the flip side, this week's Smackdown, featuring the heavily-hyped return of The Rock ended up being the 7th lowest rated episode of the show in history (4th if you don't count holidays). Rock's not a draw, bet he won't even be in the business in a couple more years.
Kenta Kobashi is finally back in the ring, wrestling undercard prelim tag matches for NOAH. Even though he's in tags and doing limited in-ring work, his knees are said to be already killing him and one of them totally locked up on him after one of his recent matches. But he still hasn't missed any dates.
NJPW announced that Kensuke Sasaki will face Pancrase star Minoru Suzuki at the Tokyo Dome in October. This match was actually planned for the big Tokyo Dome show back in May, but negotiations fell apart because Pancrase didn't like the idea of Suzuki doing a worked pro-wrestling match. Suzuki started his career in NJPW back in 1988 and was being groomed to be a big star for the company, but he quit and joined UWF because he preferred to work shoot-style matches. In 1993, he and a few other guys all started Pancrase, which he's been doing ever since. These days, Suzuki's days of fighting for them at a top level are over and he usually only competes against nobodies or in catch wrestling (grappling and submission only, no striking). Anyway, for those curious, this didn't happen. Not sure why yet, I haven't gotten that far, but Suzuki doesn't return to NJPW until 2003.
Goldberg is said to be leaning very much against going to WWE anytime soon and is instead eyeing his options of working big shows in Japan. He's contemplating an offer to make an appearance at Toryumon's show in Tokyo in September, but only an appearance. He doesn't plan to wrestle until later in the year (don't think the Toryumon appearance happens, but he does end up working a few matches in Japan here soon).
Bret Hart is still hoping to make his scheduled appearance for Jacques Rougeau's upcoming indie show in Montreal. If you recall, Rougeau's big show there last year drew over 11,000 fans and he's got himself another big stadium to fill this year and Bret was expected to be the biggest draw. Whether he'll be healthy enough to make the show, following his recent stroke, remains to be seen but he's determined to try. As of this week, Hart is able to lift his left arm over his head. Just a week ago, he couldn't move it at all. His grip strength is also coming back and he's able to walk short distances. His vocal cords were also damaged but have started strengthening again and he's able to talk again (though he can't cut a wrestling promo yet, Dave says, so he might not be doing much other than coming out and waving to the crowd if he does make it). He's still having some vision problems also, but not too bad all things considered.
Dave says that "no matter what you may hear," a lot of people involved in TNA behind the scenes are very unhappy about Vince Russo being brought in. He also says that a lot of people associate Russo and Ed Ferrara together, but they actually had a major falling out awhile back and hadn't been on speaking terms until now. When it became clear Russo was coming back, Ferrara reached out to Russo and the two sides made up. He goes on record saying for sure that neither Mike Tenay or Bill Behrens are happy about Russo's arrival, among others, but says everyone is being professional.
Notes from TNA Weekly PPV: Crowd of about 1,500, only about half paid. Dave says it was easily the best of the 4 shows they've had so far. About 85% of it was written and booked by Jerry Jarrett and the original writing team before Russo was hired, but Russo did make some changes. Dave says some people are beginning to get tired of Don West on commentary already and he definitely brings a ton of enthusiasm (but nothing else, Dave adds) to the table. During the Ken Shamrock vs. Omori match, the crowd was distracted by one of the cage dancers near the entrance who was apparently showing her ass to the crowd. Former WCW wrestler Crowbar (real name Chris Ford) worked a tag match under the name Tempest and Dave notes that when Ford worked a try-out match for WWE awhile back, he also signed over the name Crowbar to them when he did (guessing Dave is mistaken about this. He never used the name Crowbar in TNA, but he's been using it everywhere else ever since for the last 18 years). Brian Christopher is now going by his real name, Brian Lawler, and cut a promo on Jerry Lawler about being a bad father. It got a lot of heat but now they've made fans want to see a match that they can't deliver. K-Krush faced NASCAR driver Hermie Sadler and got DQ'd. Dave says Krush was absolutely awesome here, actually carrying Sadler to a watchable match. Sadler was awful of course, but the Gayda/Stratus match from Raw was light years worse, so hey, who cares? TNA tried to bring in Hermie's more famous older brother Elliott Sadler, but that fell through because Elliott has some type of affiliation with WWE, though Dave isn't sure what (I did the research and apparently Elliott drove a Summerslam-themed car during a race around this time, so I assume that's it).
More notes from TNA Weekly PPV, since this recap is huge and big, unbroken paragraphs suck: Mark and Jay Brisco worked a brief match until Malice ran in and destroyed everyone (Dave says this was a Russo addition to the show. Dave also says the Briscos will be great some day and notes that on this show, the announcers lied and said both of them are 18, when in fact, Mark Brisco is still 17 and therefore not even allowed to wrestle in many commission states). Former porn star and ECW valet Jasmine St. Claire debuted and gave Jeremy Borash a lap dance, took off her underwear, and was about to strip nude until a big angle stopped it. And yes, in case it wasn't obvious, this was another Russo addition. AJ Styles and Jerry Lynn are the tag team champions and ended up in a big brawl backstage. If you've been paying attention to the show the last 2 weeks, you would have recognized that they were doing a slow build with these two partners having friction, but Russo convinced Jarrett to hurry up and pull the trigger on the split, so here we are. Dave thinks this had no impact at all because it felt completely rushed, the story hadn't progressed far enough yet for these two to already be coming to blows. Another interview with the Dupps saying "shit" repeatedly was, yes, another Russo addition. Try not to cut yourself on all this edginess. Shamrock vs. NOAH star Takao Omori ended in a no contest because of politics. Shamrock was supposed to win clean, but then NOAH decided they didn't want Omori to do a job, so this is what we got. Dave thinks TNA should have said screw them then and just not used Omori because it's not like TNA's fanbase knows who the fuck he is anyway. Omori was said to have been spaced out all day beforehand and looked bad in the match. Crowd didn't care and they pumped in a ton of fake crowd noise for it. Jeff Jarrett ran in and took everyone out with chair shots, including "NWA rep" Harley Race, who ate a brutal unprotected chair shot to the head from Jeff and Dave thinks that's not good for anyone's brain, especially a guy pushing 60. Race was there basically to help Omori since Harley's small promotion in St. Louis has a relationship with NOAH. And finally, the 6-man X-Division #1 contenders match was excellent. Dave thinks WWE really missed the boat on Jerry Lynn and K-Krush. He admits Lynn probably couldn't have ever been a top guy in WWE or anything, but he makes everybody he wrestles look like a million bucks and guys like that are priceless to have on your roster. They also pumped a bunch of crowd noise in for this match, and at one point, the fake crowd noise loop stopped and there was a moment where it went from a loud roaring crowd to dead silence in a blink. Also, a fight in the stands distracted the crowd near the end. But great match otherwise. Show ended with the Titans players angle.
In other news, The Shane Twins have been working as the masked penis wrestlers The Johnsons in TNA but the penis aspect of it has been played down to almost nothing. Upcoming plans were for the team to unmask and revert back to the Shane Twins, but when Russo came aboard, that plan got scrapped and they will remain The Johnsons for now. Because dammit, Russo will get to make penis jokes on TV or he's going to die trying.
Many of the key names in TNA (Shamrock, AJ Styles, Jerry Lynn, Mike Tenay, among others) have now signed 1-year contracts. Scott Hall was rumored to have also signed a 1-year deal, but Hall is telling people it's not true and he's only committed for 4 more dates. Low-Ki is signed through the end of the year.
At the recent K-1 vs. PRIDE show, there was a huge upset when PRIDE fighter Quinton Jackson knocked out Cyril Abidi, one of the top kickboxers in the world. The "plan" was for Abidi to win and then go on to a bigger money match with Don Frye, but that's what happens when you try to plan things around a shoot.
And I'm sorry, I know this ain't an MMA recap, but this is too good: at the UFC press conference for the UK show this week, Dana White showed up with a bag filled with $250,000 in cash and challenged UK boxing promoter Frank Warren to put up any fighter in his stable and White would find a UFC fighter of the same weight to fight him, winner takes all the money. If you recall, Warren made some statements a few weeks back calling UFC fighters unskilled steroid freaks and claiming that his boxers could beat any of them in a real fight. So Dana showed up with a whole bag of cash, doing Dana things.
Notes from Raw: Vince came out to the NWO music and said that's the last time we'll ever hear it and that the NWO is dead, so as expected, that's it for that gimmick. Tommy Dreamer is back to his old ECW gimmick and is already 1000x more over than the jobber-eating-gross-stuff gimmick WWE gave him. There was a Coach/Booker T segment backstage which is when Eric Bischoff walked through the shot, leaving everybody with their mouths hanging open, and then his promo. Another hype video for Rey Mysterio debuting on Smackdown next week. Former WCW wrestler and recent developmental guy Johnny The Bull made his Raw debut winning the hardcore title, and Dave is baffled how he got the call up because he's one of the worst guys they have in developmental and is nowhere near ready. But it's all about how he looks. Undertaker & Lesnar beat RVD & Flair in the main event and afterward, Lesnar turned on Undertaker in a good angle, though Dave doesn't have high hopes for the inevitable match.
Notes from Smackdown: it was a pretty bad show and for a pretty surprising reason. It was all built around Rock and he was awful. Rather than trying to sell a PPV, he came off like he was trying too hard to be a funny, "cool" guy and became a parody of himself. Dave is a huge Rock fan and thinks it was painful. He did a big in-ring promo segment with rapper Busta Rhymes that was just an elaborate plug for his new Halloween: Resurrection movie ("coming out in July?" Dave asks incredulously and, right, wtf?). Even Rock using Angle's own ankle lock against him at the end of the show looked hilariously fake and Dave has no interest in the Rock/Angle match at Vengeance after this show. Edge & Hogan defending the tag titles was a super heated match and Dave can't understand it. The live crowds are still nuclear hot for Hogan, but it's not translating at all into TV ratings or ticket sales. But man, the people who do buy tickets sure do love him. They seem to be slow-burning a Randy Orton heel turn. The Nidia segment at the buffet was great and Dave thinks they may have stumbled across a pretty great gimmick with her.
The crew got a little backstage pep talk before Raw this week, mostly given by the agents (John Laurinaitis, Arn Anderson, and Fit Finlay) as well as Triple H. In particular, Triple H talked about there being too many people in the locker room who think they deserve a push ahead of the newer guys because they've been there longer. He said too many guys are sitting back waiting for someone to give them a push rather than breaking out from the pack and earning the push. He said he got over on his own when management was trying to hold him down after the MSG curtain call incident. Said too many guys are being lazy, playing cards and playing video games backstage rather than watching the matches and learning. He said just because you've had a few good matches on TV doesn't mean you know how to work or deserve a push, and also said everyone needs to work harder at house shows because attendance is down and it was guys like him who worked hard to re-build the company the last time business was down. Needless to say, for a locker room full of people who feel like they bust their asses only to get their legs cut off and hit a glass ceiling (often at the hands of the same guy giving the speech), this went over just about as well as you'd expect with the rest of the locker room. Not that anything Triple H said is wrong. Dave agrees with most of it. But considering who the messenger was, it was not well-received.
Lots of backstage talk about last week's Bradshaw/Trish Stratus vs. Chris Nowinski/Jackie Gayda match, which was among the worst matches anyone has seen in years. Fit Finlay is the usual trainer and agent for the women and usually goes over their matches and spots with them, but in this case, Sgt. Slaughter put together this match. Gayda missed a few spots early in the match and seemed to panic and it all fell apart from there. Backstage, she was fully aware of how bad it was and was said to be extremely upset. There's been talk of sending her down to OVW for more training, but she'll probably still be on TV because she's fresh off winning Tough Enough.
Steve Austin hasn't had any contact with anyone in WWE except for Jack Lanza, who was the agent Austin often worked with for his matches. All that's known now is Austin told Lanza he's still training hard and Lanza felt like he's getting antsy sitting at home and may be ready to return already (I think he's got bigger problems at home). But Austin and Vince still have not spoken and there's still a lot of bad feelings there.
In light of recent events, Dave digs up the transcript from an old Prodigy online chat from 1996, in which Eric Bischoff was asked if he would ever work for Vince McMahon. His response: "I would rather chew off my fingers."
Writer Brian Gewertz reportedly has some heat over Raw's declining ratings. The problem is, no matter who it is (Gewertz, Heyman, Russo, or even Stephanie), the final approval for everything you see on television comes down to Vince McMahon. He deserves the credit when it's good and the blame when it's bad, end of story. It's a common occurrence for Vince to rip up a script and tell the writers to come up with something new, so any bad segment that makes it to TV is on him, and resulting in lots of last minute changes. Some people are even blaming Gewertz for Kevin Nash's recent injury because Gewertz wrote the match into the script the day of the show, so Nash wasn't even aware he was going to be wrestling until a couple hours before they went on the air and I guess he didn't have time to properly stretch and get ready, and ended up tearing his quad 10 seconds in. Same thing with Cena's debut, that was a day-of decision, and luckily Cena was already on the road with the crew working dark matches, so he was available. But again, Dave says you can't blame Gewertz for either of those things because, once again, it's Vince who is constantly changing his mind and forcing last minute rewrites and whatnot every week. How is Gewertz or any other writer supposed to build long-term stories under those conditions? (Man, this sure feels familiar)
Latest on DDP, he and wife Kimberly are planning on moving from Atlanta to Los Angeles to try their hand at acting careers. They've both saved a lot of money from their years in wrestling and can afford to take a chance on this kind of thing I guess. (DDP has done a handful of acting roles, mostly in the mid-00s, but obviously nothing of note. And Kimberly Page did a few movies, including a starring role with DDP in a movie called The Scam Artist that I can't find anywhere, and of course, her most famous role as "chick who's tit fell out" in The 40 Year Old Virgin).
Randy Orton suffered a concussion in a house show match with Batista. Orton was trying to sell a clothesline by flying in the air and taking a big flat back bump, but hit his head on the mat coming down and was knocked unconscious. He should be back in a week or so though, because it's not like concussions are serious injuries or anything. EMT's helped him out of the ring and he walked to the back under his own power but he was knocked clean the fuck out for a bit there.
This week's episode of WWE Confidential featured Big Show and Bradshaw playing a game of HORSE with the winner "getting a shot to sexually harass Linda Miles." So obviously they're out of ideas for this show. (Yeah JBL is on some full-blown Jerry Lawler shit with Miles here).
John Cena is still finishing up in OVW and working the upcoming big Six Flags show in Louisville. Despite being a big babyface on TV, he's still a heel in OVW and is playing a gimmick where his main roster success is going to his head.
The New York Daily News ran a story on the "Sex, Lies & Headlocks" book that is coming out soon about Vince McMahon and noted several revelations in the book, such as Vince being paranoid about his office being bugged in 1993 prior to the steroid trial and how he wouldn't sit or talk near windows because he thought the FBI was listening in. It also talked about how Vince gave a job interview to Matt Lauer to host the WBF Bodystars show but didn't think Lauer had the right look, among other things. When asked for comment, WWE responded "No one in WWE has any interest in reading it. No one cares to." Dave says that's 2002 carny talk for, "Can you get us an advance copy?"
NEXT WEDNESDAY:Raw appears to turn a corner (lol no), WWE making major cutbacks and severing developmental ties, TNA also making major budget cuts, WWE Vengeance fallout, and more...
IMPORTANT NOTES: -teams with new head coaches and respective coordinators may have a very difficult time trying to get in sync with the players, especially with no preseason or OTAs during the summer. -the unusual year we have had will affect the offense more than the defense. QBs getting in sync with their weapons is crucial to offensive success, so look out for starting or rookie QBs who just signed with a new team/their first team. Avoid all totals at all costs in Week 1, likely the entire month of September, and possibly the entire season. BETTING NOTES: Spread Magic Numbers (from most frequent): 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 1, 2, 17, 8, 13, 21, 5, 20, 18, 16, 15, 12, 9, 19. Totals Magic Numbers (from most frequent): 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47, 40. TEASERS: KEEP IT SIMPLE. KEEP IT SMART. Teams that do consistently well & do not implode are teams with good, stable organizations top to bottom: Owner, GM, Head Coach, Staff, Captains (QB included), & rest of players. -Examples: Baltimore, New England, Buffalo, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos (on the fence). BYE WEEKS MATTER. Not only after byes, but when the bye weeks occur. Teams with early bye weeks will start to get tired by the time Week 12/13 rolls around, and teams with very late byes will start to struggle when their bye week approaches. Which QB do you trust with the game on the line? If all else fails, bet on the QB. Mahomes vs. Trubisky? Obviously Mahomes. Garoppolo vs. Jones? Garoppolo. Look at QB's record when coming back from 4th Quarter deficits, 2 minute drill comebacks, etc. Lean towards picking these types of QBs, ESPECIALLY when they are Underdogs. Treat NFL betting strategies like diminishing returns. It's great to have strategies, but too many will make you overthink and over-analyze. Keep it simple. Keep it smart. Offense - chemistry is extremely important. This is why many free agent signings of offensive skill players and QBs need time to gel with each other and with the schemes. Picking Super Bowls: Lean towards teams with the dynamic players. Who has the ability to make a big play when it's needed? Young teams tend to be more distracted than older teams. Whoever the coach is doesn’t seem to matter much. Young teams visiting popular cities like Miami, New York, and Los Angeles will tend to underperform than veteran teams. Dak Prescott & Aaron Rodgers are not that great on the road. IMPORTANT BETTING NOTE: WHATEVER YOU DO, DO NOT, ABSOLUTELY DO NOT, BET ON PHILIP RIVERS. Positions by order of importance:
Quarterbacks (Big Arms are flashy and nice to look at, but reliability and accuracy are just as important, if not more. This is why Brady, Rodgers, and Brees last so long in the league, while Jay Cutler has been out of a job for a while. Recently, dynamic, athletic QBs who can use their legs if needed are in demand. Ex: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance).
Pass Rushers (Teams need a good QB, and then a Pass Rusher to make opposing QBs uncomfortable).
Offensive Tackles (Teams need a good OT to make sure opposing Pass Rushers do not make your QB uncomfortable).
Defensive Tackles (Good DTs not only bring attention & double teams from Guards and Centers, freeing up Edge Rushers and Interior Linebackers to blitz, but they also clog running lanes and give the illusion to young QBs that there are more players rushing him than there really are).
Guards (protects the disruptive DTs and open running lanes in A and B gaps. Guards with elite lateral and downhill speeds are critical for successful zone runs and screens).
Interior Linebackers (the QBs of the defense. Elite ILBs also can run with slot receivers coming across the middle, or RBs serving as checkdown/screen options for QBs).
Center (QB of the OL. Calls out any potential blitzes and audibles. Helps out to double team guards).
Cornerbacks
Tight Ends (ideally you want a TE who not only has speed, hands, elite route running, but also someone who can chip pass rushers and run block. Ex: George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski. A TE who can do both well can confuse opposing defensive coordinators and keep them honest and on their toes, as offensive coordinators don't need to bring in a pure blocking TE for run plays. TEs also create pass-catching mismatches for slower linebackers & smaller safeties).
Safeties
Wide Receivers (the game is increasingly becoming pass heavy, so getting a good wide receiver who can get separation from opposing corners is key. A large receiver with reliable hands who can stretch and convert critical third downs is becoming increasingly in demand as the game goes away from pounding the rock. Finally, also getting a receiver who can get separation on go, post, and corner routes for critical explosive plays are getting increasingly more important as well).
Running Backs (prefer a group that is reliable; do not pay a star RB big money, like CMC & Gurley. Coaches like Bill Belichick and Andy Reid are leaning towards Running Backs by committee. Running Backs who not only can run but has sure hands and route running are extremely in demand. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalvin Cook are a new breed of RBs who can run and catch. Guys like Mark Ingram and C.J. Andersen are becoming a dying breed. Watch for Derrick Henry like Running Backs to come into demand. 6'3, 240 lb. Backs like him who can create mismatches against the smaller outside linebackers and defensive backs are the ones many front offices will be looking for).
Full Backs (not much in use these days, but still just as important. New England, Kansas City, and San Francisco use Full Backs, and are a critical part of their success to either make up for the lack of dynamic weapons on the outside, or to shake things up in short yardage/goal line situations. They are usually used to block the first man to create explosive runs for guys like Matt Breida, Sony Michel, and Damien Williams Anthony Sherman, Kyle Juszczyk, & James Devlin are examples).
Placekickers (most frequent score in the NFL is 23-20. Public doesn't realize how important placekicking is. Belichick put a higher priority on a reliable, clutch placekicker than getting weapons on the outside for Brady).
9/27 MAC's NFL BACKROOM INFO + NFL HUSH MONEY MOVE Today The MAC is making bankrolls fat again! The MAC has 2 special release plays, 2 Chicken Diner Money Makers for his Patreon and The Gambling Report Subscribers. Exclusive consensus information in today's Tampa Bay at Denver Hush Money Play (5-0) just came in. Sending pigeons is a thing of the past, today it's systems, algorithms, simulations and formulas. MAC just received his top rated consensus report and a full odds/handle breakdown for Houston at Pittsburgh, huge line moves and some unusual betting activity coming through the wire and MAC is going to cash in on the tells! This weeks #BumAlert could very be going to JuJu Smith-Schuster - Depending on the cover! 9/27 MAC's NFL BACKROOM INFO - Houston vs Pittsburgh Game Info - Game Day: Sunday, September 27, 2020 Game Time: 1:00 PM ET TV Channel: CBS Location: Pittsburgh, PA Stadium: Heinz Field Quick Trends: Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Texans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Texans are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss. Texans are 5-12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Play: Pitt -4 (+25 UNITS) Houston going 0-2 through the first 2 games of the season is typical, showing nothing against KC and the Ravens reveals what was expected from a has been team like Houston, you can place a asterisk next to the goose egg seeing how the Chiefs and Baltimore are 2 of this years top contenders but it doesn't mean anything,. Deshaun Watson could get some points on the board, most likely late air attacks and unnecessary come from behinders that could make a difference in the total, set at 46, it's gone up but nothing significant. This is a desperate Texan team that can't run, but will try, MAC is expecting a low scoring Steelers POUNDING, the line opened at Pitt -6 and has dumped 2 points, a unusual 2 points that is due to whales dumping on Pittsburgh, oddsmakers are looking to entice the public that are looking at a Houston team desperate for a win. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 254.5 passing yards per game, ranking 10th in the NFL through two weeks but rumors are still circling about that elbow Texans key injuries WR Brandin Cooks (quadriceps) questionable RB Duke Johnson (ankle) questionable OT Laremy Tunsil (elbow) questionable DE J.J. Watt (groin) probable Steelers key injuries WR Dionte Johnson (toe) probable WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) questionable 9/27 MAC's NFL BACKROOM INFO - Tampa Bay vs Denver Game Info - Game Day: Sunday, September 27, 2020 Game Time: 4:25 PM ET TV Channel: FOX Location: Denver, CO Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High The Tampa Bay Tom Bradys finally began to look like the team the fans expected them to be in Week 2, Denver is struggling with injuries, and Gronk is supposedly still drunk from last night and was seen at the local packie grabbing a 30 pack of Coors Light Spritzers before meeting up with what looked like 4 Hattian strippers. The Broncos have no QB, that is a major problem for them but not for the bookies, the total is set at 42.5 down from 43.5 and the Bucs started as -3.5 road favorites now at -6 the Broncos as home dogs doesn't look so bad. MAC is going deep and taking the soft total, these 2 teams should have 37 points up before half time and from what sources are saying the over in all the quarters are the way to play the props. Play: Over 42.5 (+25 UNITS) MAC's Money Making Matchup Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin vs. Broncos CB Michael Ojemudia After missing a game, Godwin is back making the Buccaneers' offense a big percent better. Godwin was Tom Brady's go to in week 1, earning each one of his 7 catches for 79 yards, lined up outside or in the slot he can get it done with the big plays. When Godwin is lined up wide to the offense's left, will come the matchups with Ojemudia, the rookie third-rounder out of Iowa. With A.J. Bouye out, Ojemudia played out every snap last weekend in Pittsburgh. Ojemudia struggled and will be struggling this week too, but at 6-1 and 2 bucks he poses a size advantage against Godwin. The Bucs' 2019 leading receiver with 1,333 yards, Godwin is the Bucs' best pass-catcher in the open field after he has the ball in his hands, so Ojemudia will have to be on his tackle game, he has the body mass to make a things happen making for a key factor and this weeks money making match up. Quick Trends: Buccaneers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Buccaneers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games as a favorite Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games in Week 3. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games in September. FIRST QUARTER Play: 1st Quarter over 7.5 FIRST HALF Play: Over 21 (+5 UNITS) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs DENVER BRONCOS - BRONCOS - Team Total Play: Over 19.5 (+5 UNITS) MAC’s Picks on Patreon
NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros! QUICK NEWS AND NOTES: NFL Week 3 is already here!Last week was filled with injuries and star players dropping like flies.For people that have followed me for awhile you know I’m from KC so that KC game had me on the edge of my seat!I’ve had a very busy week with my son playing 3 baseball games in 3 days.I’ve set aside some time to dig into my week 3 article this morning so let’s get started! THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL: This game has the 31st and 32nd rated pass defense DVOA on the year and two QBs that are not afraid to sling it around. If you are betting I lean to JAX -2.5 or -3 and the over 47.5. I’m likely going to parlay the two just for something to watch. JAX is 31st vs. TE this year so Mike Gesicki is one of my focal points for DFS. He is also coming off a massive 30 DK points game. I don’t mind either QB but lean to Minshew since I have them winning this game by almost 10 points in our custom model. Pair your QB with a WR or two. If DJ Chark doesn’t go tonight then Keelan Cole is the guy I’m looking at who has put up 16 and 18 DK points over the last two weeks. I also don’t mind Shenault who has put up 14 and 10 DK points. This game should feature a lot of passing and could be a sneaky high scoring game as the Vegas line opened at 45 and has already moved to 47.5. CUSTOM MODEL SCORE:- LAS VEGAS 33 vs. NEW ENGLAND 25 – BETTING THOUGHTS: The custom model on this game is skewed with only two games and the one large outburst by LV. I think NE wins this game at home but I’d lean to LV +6.5 as it should be fairly close. I put this on here so if you look at our custom models and projected scores on the cheat sheet you get an idea of how I interpret them. DFS PICKS FOR GAME: CAM NEWTON – His rushing upside gives us a huge edge on DK. He has put up 25.7 and 38.6 DK points in the last two weeks and priced at only 6700. Cam has a safe floor for cash games and upside for GPP. LV has the 28th rated rushing defense DVOA so it should be easy pick’ens for Cam. JULIAN EDELMAN – Massive week last week with 28.9 DK points and he will be the highest targeted WR on the team. DARREN WALLER – He put up 31.3 DK points in a massive game last week. He is the best receiver for Oakland right now. CUSTOM MODEL SCORE:- BUFFALO 26 vs. RAMS 25 BETTING THOUGHTS: I like Rams +2.5 or +3 this week. We have several points being scored in this game which is slightly skewed at our projected 51.2 points but the total opened at46.5 and has moved to 48 so public is also leaning on an over play. DFS PICKS FOR GAME: STEFON DIGGS – Buffalo can’t run as they rank 29th in rushing “O” but the pass is working as they are 3rd in passing “O”. Diggs has been a monster putting up 17 and 32 DK points. He will get a tougher pass “D” this weekend but the target volume is too much to pass up. JOHN BROWN – Huge discount off Diggs if you want to pivot down and has put up 19 and 18.2 DK points across two weeks. No TE for Buffalo is providing any value so it’s either Diggs or John Brown. CUSTOM MODEL SCORE:- TITANS 27 vs. VIKINS 28 BETTING THOUGHTS: With only two games the model doesn’t have enough info to properly evaluate each team so I recommend taking it with a grain of slate until we get 4-5 weeks in. I love Titans -2.5 this week. Vikes are struggling this year as they can’t pass (30th passing “O”) and their defense is suspect. They rank 23rd in rush “D” and 19th in pass “D”. TEN should be able to score at will. Take Titans! DFS PICKS FOR GAME: RYAN TANNEHILL – Priced at less than 6000 on DK he needs to be in the GPP player pool after his game last week. He has 19.4 and 26.8 DK points in two weeks and should be able to tear apart these corners. If you don’t play Derrick Henry then roll with a Tannehill stack. COREY DAVIS / JONNU SMITH – If A.J. Brown doesn’t go this week then stack these two guys with Tannehill. Davis has 20 and 13 DK points this year and Smith has 14 and then a 24.4 outburst last week with no AJ Brown. DERRICK HENRY – I don’t mind playing Henry but at 7800 and limited PPR upside I think he is too expensive. DALVIN COOK – MIN ranks 30th in passing “O” and 4th in rushing “O” and they are facing the 22nd rated rush “D”. Dalvin has 21.8 and 17.1 Dk points in two weeks and he his cheaper than Derrick Henry. He is the focal point of this offense. CUSTOM MODEL SCORE:- ATLANTA FALCONS 29 vs. CHICAGO BEARS 26 BETTING THOUGHTS: Can the Bears score 26 points? I know the Falcons will light up the score board as they have been on fire putting up 32 points per game (5th best) and the are playing at home on the turf where they are a fast break team. Lay the points with the Falcons. DFS PICKS FOR GAME: CALVIN RIDLEY – I don’t know if Julio is going to play this week or not but Ridley is a safe play putting up 37 and 33 DK points in two weeks. He is one of the best WR plays on the board and his volume is locked in. CHI ranks 2nd vs. WR-1, 4th vs. WR-2 and then 22nd vs. WR-3 so that tells me Russell Gage could be a sneaky GPP play at 5100 on DK. JIMMY GRAHAM – Sneaky play at only 3400. If CHI is down 10+ points and playing catch up they will be throwing a lot and ATL ranks 26th vs. the TE. Graham loves playing on the turf as he spent most of his early years in New Orleans in the dome. If he catches a TD that is 2x his salary. Good punt play. CUSTOM MODEL SCORE:- DETROIT 21 vs. CARDINALS 27 BETTING THOUGHTS: Love Love Love the Cardinals in this matchup! Lay the points! DFS PICKS FOR GAME: KYLER MURRAY – My favorite QB on the slate this week. He has 27 and 33 DK points across his first two games. He should be able to carve up the 30th ranked defense DVOA. DET is 32nd in rush “D” and 24th in pass “D”. DEANDRE HOPKINS – With 32 and 21 DK points he has the safest floor of any WR this week. Hopkins is expensive at 7900 on DK but we have him for 10-12 targets, 7-8 catches and around 100 yards an a TD. KENYAN DRAKE – He has a solid 15 and 12 Dk points across two weeks but has a plus matchup vs. this 32nd rated rush defense. If he can break 100 rushing yards and grab a TD he could return big value at only 6000. CUSTOM MODEL SCORE:- DALLAS 29 vs. SEATTLE 36 BETTING THOUGHTS: OVER! Look how many points are projected here! Seattle has the 5th best “O” and 27th “D”. That’s a perfect setup for an over! DFS PICKS FOR GAME: EZEKIEL ELLIOT – Expensive but you are paying for a safe floor. I love the pick for cash games and I think there is upside for GPPs. Zeke has 28 and 23 DK points so far and should be 25+ this week. AMARI COOPER – 18 and 19 DK points in his first two weeks is good for pushing 3x value. SEA ranks 31st vs. the WR-1. Stack him with Dak in GPPs. DALTON SCHULTZ – He lead the team in targets last week with 10! He caught 9 of them for 88 yards and a TD. He is only 4500 on DK and worth a dart. For GPP I like Dak / Cooper / Schultz stacked up! RUSSELL WILSON – 5th best “O” and no “D”. Wilson continues to rack up fantasy points putting up 34.8 and 34.4 in only two weeks. We have this game projected at 65 points so grab some shares of someone in this game! CHRIS CARSON – Inexpensive piece of this game and has put up 25 and 20 DK points in two weeks. DK METCALF / TYLER LOCKETT – NO ONE ELSE is catching many balls in this offense! These two guys are putting up solid games each week. There isn’t a week where they are both going to give you a dud so I like using AT LEAST ONE of them each week. I don’t mind a Wilson / Metcalf / Lockett stack. Both of these guys have put up 17+ DK points in week 1 and week 2 and they are only 6500 and 6400. Easy play for cash games and upside for GPP! ONE OFF PLAYERS: MILES SANDERS – This guy could explode in this game. CIN has the 25th rated rushing “D” and they are 30th vs. passing catching RBs. That is all Miles Sanders and he is only 6400 on DK and coming off a 21.1 DK point week. Love some Miles Sanders! This should be the Sanders and Ertz show. ZACH ERTZ / DALLS GOEDERT will be heavily involved in this passing game and we have them with 4-5+ catches EACH. SUNDAY NIGHT SPECIAL: CUSTOM MODEL PROJECTED SCORE: - - PACKERS 36 vs. SAINTS 28 - - BETTING THOUGHTS: Love it! Packers baby! They are the #1 total “O” and #1 rushing “O”. They are struggling on the defensive side of the ball ranking 29th in total “D”. Passing “D” ranks a solid 13th but the 30th rated rushing “D” is worrisome. With Saints banged up and likely no Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders on the wrong side of 30 there is only Alvin Kamara that I’m worried about. Line opened at +6.5 and is now +3.5. I’m taking Packers +3.5 all day! DFS PICKS FOR GAME: ALVIN KAMARA – Captain play and a stud! He has 24 and 38 DK points in two weeks and GB has the 30th rated rush defense and they are 24 vs. pass catching RBs. There will be lots of volume for him in this game. AARON JONES – Has to be in your showdown lineup coming off his 48.6 DK point game last week. He has a tougher matchup vs. the Saints and the 9th rated rushing “D” but Saints are 26th vs. pass catching RBs and Jones is one of the best! SPORTS BETTING PICKS: 3 Team Specialty Teaser Picks (pick your favorite 3 but these are what I like): COLTS -10.5 taking this down to -0.5 or “pick” basically. NYJ are horrible and they can’t score ranking 31st in points per game. Indy @ Home should easily win the game and on a teaser you don’t have to worry about laying double digit points. ARIZONA (-6 teasing to +3) – I like this game at -6 and love it at +3. ARI @ HOME against the 30th rated “D” and Kyler Murray is having a great start to the 2020 Season. ‘Zona could easily hang 30 points in this game. DALLAS/SEATTLE OVER (55.5 teased to 45.5) – Seattle has the 5th best “O” and 27th rated “D”. Teams rank 8th and 2nd in points per game and 25th and 21st in points allowed per game. Both teams have prolific offenses packed with play makers. Over 55.5 might be steep but teasing it down to 45.5 feels too easy! TAMPA BAY (-6 TO +3) – Tampa travels to Denver where they are banged up and rank only 30th in points per game. Tom Brady should get an easy win in this contest. Our custom model has this game with the Bucs putting up 30 and Denver in the 18 point range. I don’t mind adding it to a teaser but prefer it as a straight bet. ATLANTA / BEARS OVER (47.5 teased to 37.5) – ATL on the turf is ridiculous and they are holding the 8th best “O” right now with the 25th worst “D”. Perfect storm for an “OVER” play. We just need the BEARS to score some points. Falcons are 5th in points per game and 32nd in points allowed per game. OVER! Thanks for reading, Haze
NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them. Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now. https://preview.redd.it/rs90lt6ckf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddfc8945862472b52b5ef8c69076acde904c44c
1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other. Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league. Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020. https://preview.redd.it/anrr9erfkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5655b4452baff2691a0e060e8d70918d58801a4c
2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough. Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive. Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark. https://preview.redd.it/7ivo914ikf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d029ddd274b78e78f5bc932d00086b8c697a466e
3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game. Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams. Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here. https://preview.redd.it/nme3explkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3998c6026125c1b9b48438e3fc9afaf9601b116e
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room. Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy. Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division. https://preview.redd.it/rywropjokf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed77a7303af810b862abb2100c4f0b86841a2d38
5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game. Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you. Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently. https://preview.redd.it/szpawv9rkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ca5fe882d8155d83eb3328e9bf1f1681a17384
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November. Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period. Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now. https://preview.redd.it/5myv276vkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fb25f47d0759e9b5a07876ea01787898c6cc817
7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7. Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season. Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center. https://preview.redd.it/y7agj2n2lf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=221af0a1f689d3b19d5e250fac0b58a35877edad
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates. Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year. Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air. If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
It goes without saying that Justin Reid was an absolute steal when Brian Gaine scooped him up with the 68th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. He was frequently projected as a first or second round pick with the makings of a perennial Pro Bowl safety, yet he somehow fell to the third round, possibly because of his famous brother's association with Colin Kaepernick and the protest movement that was still pretty controversial at the time. But fortunately for the Texans, the rest of the league's loss was our gain, as Reid has quickly become one of the best players on our defense. While some may refer to Reid as a "jack-of-all-trades and master of none," thus far he's proven to be damn good at pretty much everything. Reid finished his rookie season with three interceptions (including a majestic 101-yard pick-six), ten passes defensed, 88 total tackles, a forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries. And if it weren't for a lingering shoulder injury in 2019 (along with playing in an otherwise lousy secondary), many believe he would have made his first Pro Bowl. He was also voted winner of the Texans' Ed Block Courage Award, a badge of honor Reid now wears proudly. But it takes more than big plays and sexy stats to turn even a great player into one of the faces of the franchise. Aside from his fireworks on the field, Reid is also smart, articulate, a great interview, and is extremely active on social media. Since the latest round of #BlackLivesMatter protests began in the wake of the killings of Ahmaud Arbery, Breonna Taylor, George Floyd, Reid has been one of the most vocal supporters of the movement -- a movement that has now lost much of the initial stigma that may have caused Reid's draft stock to drop. And with the very public support of Bill O'Brien, Cal McNair, and even the NFL as a whole, one could argue that it's in the team's best interest to provide our star safety with a larger platform. Now, Deshaun Watson will obviously be the primary face of the franchise for the foreseeable future, but with DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona and J.J. Watt inching ever closer to retirement, there's gonna be a significant void to fill. I'm not much of a betting man, but by 2021, I wouldn't be surprised to see Justin Reid hanging out with that Scott dude in those cheesy HEB commercials. What say you, Texans fans?
$BTDG featured in article write-up along with Dick's Sporting Goods >>
The Contrarian Opportunity in Sports Stocks (CHDN, DKNG, BTDG, DKS) https://biopharmajournal.com/2020/10/01/the-contrarian-opportunity-in-sports-stocks-chdn-dkng-btdg-dks/ Experts continue to see a coming vaccine for the virus behind the pandemic, and hospitalizations and deaths continue to diverge from case numbers, which is another very positive potential signal, despite mainstream clamoring about a looming “twindemic” disaster, as a purported second wave coincides with cold and flu season. All of this may add up to risk for bear bets in the market, especially those targeting the sports industry, which has been reeling from a lack of public participation in live events. That may represent a potential opportunity for access to long-term growth potential at a discount at present prices. With that in mind, we take a look at some of the most interesting stocks in the space, including: Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN), Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG), B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG), and Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS). Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) is a prime specimen for bears looking to bet against live events due to a lack of public perception of safety. The company has the double whammy of also being part of the gaming industry, which has taken a big hit as well. The company bills itself as an industry-leading racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company anchored by our iconic flagship event – The Kentucky Derby. The company owns and operates Derby City Gaming, a historical racing machine facility in Louisville, Kentucky. It also owns and operates the largest online horse racing wagering platform in the U.S., TwinSpires.com, and sports betting and iGaming through its BetAmerica platform in multiple states. CHDN is also a leader in brick-and-mortar casino gaming with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals and 200 table games in eight states. Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) most recently announced its plans to open simulcast and historical racing machine operations at Oak Grove Racing, Gaming & Hotel in Oak Grove, Kentucky, to the public on Friday, September 18. According to the release, Oak Grove will debut 1,325 state-of-the-art HRMs with some of the best themes from Ainsworth, Scientific Games and International Gaming Technology. Dining and beverage options include Garrison Oak Steakhouse, two quick serve eateries, a coffee house, sports bar and luxurious lobby bar. The second phase of the Oak Grove project will open in October 2020 and will include a 128-room hotel, equestrian center, amphitheater, and RV Park. “We have an exceptional team poised to deliver a premier entertainment experience and regional destination for Western Kentucky and nearby Nashville, Tennessee,” said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of CDI. “We are committed to investments like Oak Grove that will help support live racing at Kentucky racetracks by generating larger purses and attracting better horses.” And the stock has been acting well over recent days, up something like 12% in that time. Churchill Downs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHDN) managed to rope in revenues totaling $185.1M in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of -61.2%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company has a strong balance sheet, with cash levels far exceeding current liabilities ($699M against $488.2M). Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) is well aligned with the fate of the NFL at this point. And, given recent news of virus outbreaks for the Titans and Vikings, and possibly others, the stock has held up quite well, but may still have further to squeeze if we see contrarian positives on the virus front in the near term. In a nutshell, the company provides users with daily sports, sports betting, and iGaming opportunities. It is also involved in the design and development of sports betting and casino gaming platform software for online and retail sportsbook, and casino gaming products. The company distributes its product offerings through various channels, including traditional websites, direct app downloads, and direct-to-consumer digital platforms. Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) most recently announced that Erik Bradbury has been named the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer effective September 10, 2020, reporting to Jason Park, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Bradbury, who brings more than 16 years of experience in corporate accounting to DraftKings, was most recently a Partner with Ernst & Young and served as a Professional Accounting Fellow at Financial Executives International. “We are thrilled to have Erik join DraftKings at this exciting time,” said Jason Park, DraftKings Chief Financial Officer. “Erik brings a breadth of expertise working with public companies applying U.S. GAAP, IFRS, and SEC reporting requirements, which will enhance our already strong corporate accounting team and help scale this function as the Company continues to grow.” And the stock has been acting well over recent days, up something like 19% in that time. Shares of the stock have powered higher over the past month, rallying roughly 51% in that time on strong overall action. Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) brought in over $71 million in its last quarterly financial data. B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) is “the premier development league in MMA”. That’s a pretty good spot. Especially considering that the company is verticalizing on the media side, creating strong marketing and distribution agreements to showcase its top talent across the country and around the world. The company operates live events, pay-per-view media, gyms, and other resources to maximize the development of future stars in the MMA sport. B2Digital operates a number of fighting events brands, including Pinnacle, HRMMA, Strikehard, and others, and has developed and deployed the systems and technologies for the operation of the B2 Fighting Series. This includes social media marketing, event management, digital ticketing sales, digital video distribution, digital marketing, PPV, FTV, merchandise sales, brand management, and financial control systems. B2Digital owns all rights for TV, internet, social media, media, merchandising and trademarks, and branding for the B2Digital companies. B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) most recently announced that its Pinnacle Combat 32 MMA event in Farley, Iowa, on Saturday, September 26, featuring a combination of top amateur and pro fights, was another successful venture with a solid pay-per-view presence and sold out in-person attendance. According to the release, the event drove larger in-person revenue levels on a per-ticket basis due to an increased in-person attendance allowance. The event also generated higher overall margins on each attendee ticket sold than in the Company’s prior event in Alabama. “Iowa was a huge success that dramatically exceeded our expectations despite the headwinds presented by the difficult context,” commented Greg P. Bell, Chairman & CEO of B2Digital. “That success was driven by strong organic growth as our brand continues to rapidly expand. But it was also likely aided by a sense of pent-up demand for live MMA action. The other big success we saw on Saturday was a very strong performance from our new B2InstaStore marketing program. We gave our fighters, fans, and followers a resource for driving ticket sales and they have responded.” B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) has shown strong sales growth, and more importantly, has put in place a number of strategies pointing to accelerating breakout growth ahead, including innovations on the marketing front and an aggressive schedule of live PPV events this fall. Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) operates as a sporting goods retailer primarily in the eastern United States. It provides hardlines, including sporting goods equipment, fitness equipment, golf equipment, and hunting and fishing gear products; apparel; and footwear and accessories. The company also owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Field & Stream, and other specialty concept stores; and e-commerce websites, as well as GameChanger, a youth sports mobile app for scheduling, communications, and live scorekeeping. As of May 02, 2020, it operated 726 DICK’S Sporting Goods stores. Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) just announced that it will expand its nationwide footprint with the opening of one DICK’S Sporting Goods store, one combination DICK’S and Golf Galaxy location, and one Golf Galaxy store in September. These new stores will bring approximately 150 collective jobs to communities through the hiring of full-time, part-time and temporary associates for the stores. According to the company’s release, DICK’S Sporting Goods and Golf Galaxy locations will offer top-of-the-line in-store services and exclusive offerings in apparel, footwear and equipment from the Company’s own private brands, such as DSG, Tommy Armour, CALIA by Carrie Underwood, Field & Stream and Fitness Gear, as well as popular national vendors like Nike, adidas, YETI, The North Face, Callaway and TaylorMade. The context for this announcement is a bit of a bid, with shares acting well over the past five days, up about 9% in that timeframe. Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) managed to rope in revenues totaling $2.7B in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 20.1%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company is battling some balance sheet hurdles, with cash levels struggling to keep up with current liabilities ($1.1B against $2.3B, respectively).
League Winner Alert: Draft Mike Evans, TB's New TB TD King
The Man:
Mike Evans, 26-year-old outside receiver going into his seventh season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Current ADP #23 (ECR #21) on FantasyPros, WR8 on Yahoo, WR7 on ESPN (PPR).
The Myth:
Mike Evans, who was successful as the deep threat for former QB Jameis “YOLO” Winston, will SUFFER from new QB Tom Brady’s inability to make deep throws and penchant for short passes to breakout slot receiver Chris Godwin.
The Legend:
Mike Evans, king of jump-ball bombs and contested catches, will THRIVE as an WR1 from TB12’s accurate long throws and efficient red-zone looks, and will be the Bucs leading pass-catcher in fantasy points.
Justifying the Hype:
Mike Evans is currently being disrespected with a lower ADP than his slotty counterpart, Chris Godwin, who exploded last year as the league’s overall WR2. Now that reckless gunslinger Jameis Winston has been replaced with soft-lipped boomer Tom Brady, the expectation is that Godwin will prosper from TB’s "dink-and-dunk" short passes, while Evans will be a forgotten part of the offense due to the lack of desperate Hail Mary’s from TB's apparently disintegrating arm. However, that could not be further from the case. Evans may be inconsistent each week, but he has always been – and will continue to be – a guaranteed WR1 producer that will prove to benefit from Brady's improved accuracy and higher football IQ. To answer some of the questions lowering his perceived value: CAN HIS NEW QB, TOM BRADY, SUPPORT A BIG-BODIED DEEP THREAT/RED-ZONE RECEIVER? He’s already done it before – Brady has a well-documented (but quickly forgotten) history of success throwing to tall, big-bodied receivers…especially in the endzone. His love affair for these big boys first started when Randy Moss was fatefully traded to New England in 2007. Prior to the trade, Moss was fading away with career lows in Oakland. How did his first season with Brady go? He resurged his already legendary career by catching 98 passes for an astounding 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns, becoming thenew (and still!) record holder for most TD receptions in a single season. In fantasy terms, he averaged an incredible 21 fantasy points per game (ppg) in half ppr! Moss had a great tenure with the Pats - even with Brady’s injured 2008 season - until their eventual breakup in the middle of the 2010 season. Brady rebounded his lost red-zone connection with a childlike ogre named Rob Gronkowski. And boy oh boy was Tom able to move on quickly. Gronk had a great first year with Brady, especially considering how notoriously difficult it is for rookie pass catchers to excel during their first year, particularly so for Tight Ends. Despite only starting 11 games, Gronk caught 42 passes for 546 yards & 10 TDs. He followed that with his best year to date: 90 catches for a spectacular 1,327 yards and 17 TDs, averaging 17.9 ppg. Brady would continue to feed Gronk with quality targets and touchdowns to make him an annual first round pick and one of the top scoring TEs in NFL & fantasy history. But what about Godwin? – If you're worried about the emergence of Chris Godwin stealing looks, don't be. Brady has a proven history with supporting both his large RZ receiver and his smaller slot receiver. For every highlight-reel game Moss played with TB, there's also Wes Welker averaging 15 ppg. For every league-winning match with Gronk, there's still Wes Welker out there averaging 14.5 ppg until he left for Denver in 2013, where Edelman took over and averaged 13 ppg. But he hasn’t done it lately? – True, but that’s partly because NE only recently focused on utilizing world-class defense and a battering run game. The Pats started their 2016 season with Brady suspended for the first four games due to his involvement with the controversial "Deflategate" scandal. To prepare for this, Bellichick created an effective game-plan based on employing a disciplined "bend, don't break" defense while establishing the run. Their defensive ranks previously hovered between above average to mediocre per PFR. The Patriots rampaged all the way to a Lombardi via human battering ram LeGarrette Blount, who produced an amazing 1,161 rushing yards and 18 rushing TDs! It obviously helped that their defense was also ranked number one in the league. In fact, this was one of only two seasons in the past decade (at that point) where a single Pats receiver hadn’t scored 10 or more TDs. FYI, 2013 was the other season, and Gronk just happened to be injured during both years. Which brings me to the next topic... But what about Gronk? – Gronk is back! But is he really? Has any offensive player ever “retired” for at least a year, verified their retirement with a worrying change in physique or hobbies, then come back and had a successful fantasy season? Not Marshawn Lynch. Not Jason Witten. Not even Ricky Williams, who “retired” after only his third season for legal reasons. While Gronk may get a few RZ looks, he retired for a reason, and Evans will easily demonstrate why he deserves to be TB's new goal-line favorite. But can TB12 still do it? – The rumors of Brady's arm's death are greatly exaggerated. NFL.com ranked Brady as the #4 best deep passer last year. If you don't trust their opinions, then PFF provides a more analytical approach and ranked Brady at #14. Keep in mind that he only had a single game with Antonio Brown's Big Chest, six games with the ghost of Josh Gordon's, then had to rely on Phillip Dorsett the rest of the way. Regardless of these obstacles, TB actually had the fourth largest improvement in his deep ball accuracy when compared to 2018. So we addressed Evan's "new QB" questions. On to the next concern... CAN HIS COACH, BRUCE ARIANS, SUPPORT AN AGING QB? He’s already done it before – Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians has experience working with another "aging, old timer" QB. In 2013, Arians became head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, who acquired veteran QB Carson Palmer via trade with the Oakland Raiders. When Palmer was traded to the desert, the public viewed him as "unspectacular," "lost," and "nearing the end of his career." During his first season under BA, Palmer threw the most passing yards (4,274) he’s ever thrown at that point. So no “new offense” jitters with a seasoned vet like Palmer, and I would bet the same for a pro like Brady. Additionally, Palmer’s next full season (he was injured early during his following season) saw him throw not only his highest passing yards ever at 4,671 yards, but also broke theCardinals single season TD recordwith 35 TDs! BA was able to coach Palmer into playing at his personal best during the twilight of his career, and I anticipate the same happening with Brady. CAN MIKE EVANS BE A WR1? HE'S ALWAYS DONE IT – Seriously, look at his stats. In his entire NFL career, he'snever gone under 1K receiving yards, and averages 8 TDs/year. This includes his rookie year, where both Mike Glennon & Josh McCown shared duties as his starting quarterback. His career fantasy average is 14.0 ppg (0.5 ppr). He led the league in drawing PIs last year, which I'm sure Brady will love to exploit often. Even FantasyPros predicts 2020 will be his best season yet. The biggest drawback with Evans is that while his season total numbers are impressive, he is wildly inconsistent from game-to-game. This reminds me of another highly drafted WR who routinely has extreme boom or bust weeks but always finishes the year as a WR1. That man is Quintorris Lopez "Julio" Jones. Everyone loves Julio Jones because he has a proven history of high season totals. Even the savviest of managers are willing to draft him early year-after-year, despite being fully aware of his unpredictably volatile weekly production. The allure of Julio lifting your whole team to reach the highest of highs is worth suffering through sporadic weeks of the lowest of lows. Well, if it’s crazy boom-bust potential that you’re seeking, look no further than Mike Evans. Still-anxious owners last year can remember nervously watching each week to witness Evans either conquering insanely high peaks or suffering through soul crushing valleys. If watching Jones play is as anxiety-inducing as watching a film like "Parasite," then Evans is like watching "Uncut Gems." In just 14 games last year, Julio Jones finished the fantasy season (weeks 1-16) as the #4 WR in all formats. Mike Evans? He ended the season early as #5 in std, #8 in 0.5ppr, and #11 in ppr in only 13 games started. Had he played another game like Julio and scored his fantasy average in std (12.8 ppg vs Julio’s 12.0 ppg) and half ppr (15.3 ppg vs 15.2 ppg), Evans would’ve topped Jones and outranked him. And his two missed games were against Detroit and Houston’s weak secondaries! Jones has a proven track record of inconsistent consistency, yet he is currently going in the late first/early second round of fantasy drafts as the consensus WR5 with an ADP of #14 (ECR #12). Meanwhile, Mike Evans is going in the late second/early third round as the consensus WR8 with an ADP of #25 (ECR #24). Mike Evans is a volatile WR1 who should thrive as TB12's new favorite deep threat target and red-zone toy. He's proven to be good for at least 1K yards, regardless of QB. His new QB has proven he can support a deep threat with a strong slot receiver. His coach has proven his offense can support multiple wideouts with a new, aging QB. Evans is a WR1 available at a discount with great TD upside and an improved floor. Don't forget about him. TL;DR - DRAFT MIKE EVANS. HE'LL HELP YOU WIN YOUR LEAGUE. Previous posts: League Winner Alert: Draft Melvin Gordon, TD King
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Further analysis has come in from the debate, and it is now obvious that Biden had an earpiece and was being helped. There are photos of the wires in his shirt and sleeve. When he was given his first question, he touched his ear and said "Good luck" repeating what the person coaching him said into his ear piece. (Totally avoided on the MSM). Chris Wallace has become famous for all the wrong reasons. Look at this page devoted just to Wallace memes. The media is still BEGGING Touchy Joe to cancel all future debates. The Trump team released a list of the 33 lies Touchy Joe stated during the debate. Are the lib voters stupid enough to believe all the lies? Unfortunately, the answer is probably yes. Meanwhile, at his post debate "rally" he was confused by a train, then the sign on his podium fell off. You can't make this stuff up. Feeble beyond belief. Trump on the other hand was campaigning in MN yesterday, and when he mentioned Omar and her voter fraud, the crowd started chanting "Lock her up". Time for an aside. Trump has heard at EVERY rally for four years the chant "Lock "X" up". He HAS to know we DEMAND genuine justice for treason, fraud, EVERYTHING! I still believe it is all coming post his victory, but the chance they manage to steal the election looms large. By the way, he is campaigning in MN, the only state that didn't vote for Reagan. That tells us he is absolutely certain he has all the swing states secured. I mean CERTAIN. We are a month out. This is the time you abandon states you won't win, and throw every last resource you have at the swing states. Trump is campaigning in uber liberal states almost exclusively now meaning he wants to have a Reagan like landslide, and he must feel very confident about his ability to counter the liberal attempt to steal the election. Mind you, that IS the game plan. 80 Soros funded organizations have aligned to ensure that Trump will "step down" after they steal the election. In Philadelphia, the laptop and memory sticks used to program the voting machines went missing. Want to bet they are found pre-programmed with a million votes for Biden? In NYC, 100,000 ballots were found to have errors. Going back to my point from yesterday. I know that reading about the rampant and open level of fraud we are already seeing is stress inducing. However, look at Trump. Sure he posts tweets highlighting all this, but he has an aura of absolute confidence. Do you think we are aware of this stuff and he isn't? No chance. He knows about MORE fraud than even we do. His confidence tells me he knows he will overcome and counter all of this. Fortunately, FEDERAL judges keep ruling against local liberal judges who think they are allowed to change election laws with a ruling. The federal judges are reminding them the law cannot be changed by a dude in a robe on a power trip. Only the legislative branch can change the law. The most recent ruling affected North Carolina. The liberal desperation keeps growing. Now Crying Schumer said he wants to add DC and Puerto Rico as states so they can get more electoral votes. Won't happen. The AP circulated a memo to members to tell the media how to downplay liberal violence. Riots are now to be called "unrest" because it is a less "emotional" term. Remember my common theme? Liberals are ruled exclusively by emotion. They admitted as much. Lets focus on the media for a second. Fakebook has agreed to ban ads critical of voter fraud and anything discussing the election results after receiving an angry letter from the Biden team. Think about that. Zuckerberg lied to Congress, and has been threatened by the president of the US, but follows the demands of a guy who will be forgotten to history in two months. The former CEO of Twitter said that the people he disagrees with should be lined up and shot. Clear violation of Twitter policy, but of course it is untouched. Note the mindset. KILL the opposition, True evil. That brings us to RUMOR number one. Q suggested a LONG time ago they were working to create their own news network. One of our fellow readers must have seen some the same stories I have in that people think Trump will announce the new network a few weeks from now just as all the promised tech censorship goes into over drive. If this is true, that would be game changing for many reasons. The most obvious is he would have a platform to deliver his an unfiltered message 24/7. The second is the timing. Not only is it perfect for the election, but ANY new network would draw curious viewers, and this would draw in a billion people almost over night. Imagine having it preloaded with all sorts of short video clips discussing every topic under the sun. Is this a pipe dream? Odds are the answer is yes. However, we have hints. Trump for the past two months has been attacking Fox news, and just yesterday said he was so disappointed with Fox that he was almost done with them. They don't have time to legislatively counter the tech media censorship, and I find it very hard to believe Trump will accept being silenced at one of the most crucial times of his life. Why would Q mention this years ago? Because it would take years to create. Keep your fingers crossed. Imagine the liberal heads exploding over that. It would be glorious. It would also be a disaster for the deep state. How many news items do I mention every day that I say got NO media coverage? One or more per day. Yesterday it was the 50,000 person prayer group in DC. The other area that is consistently going unreported are UkraineGate, ObamaGate, PedoGate, SpyGate, etc. This is starting to explode, and is not getting the coverage it needs. Communist Comey testified before Congress yesterday. The point of this wasn't for him to expose his guilt. We all knew he would lie and deny. That is what he did, but now his answers are on record so when documents come out to the contrary, he is in even more trouble. His most common response to questions was to say, "I don't remember". Let's pause there. He was the HEAD of the FBI. He authorized a spy campaign on the president of the USA, something never done before in US history with the consequences being enormous no matter which way it went. Either they over throw Trump which would be gargantuan, or they all get captured as traitors. But he doesn't remember. Just another case. You know, just like them investigating jay walking and parking tickets. On the same level. Ted Cruz said that he is either the most criminally corrupt or completely incompetent person in the history of the FBI, and he didn't believe he was incompetent. He said that his legacy would be the destruction of the reputation of the FBI that no one trusts any more. Why would we? They are STILL criminal. They wouldn't investigate the Omar voter fraud from last week. But yeah, the head of the FBI doesn't remember an int'l spy ring trying to take down the sitting president. This guy had better get the gallows. Little else would be true justice. In case you think they aren't scared to death, look at what is happening in the Ukraine right now. A gas company said in COURT they bribed Biden with at least $900,000. NO media coverage. Like I said, at least once a day. It gets worse. A woman working in the US embassy in the Ukraine was just murdered, right as the Ukraine info is getting declassified. Coincidence? There is no such thing. We also learned that the head of the CIA herself, Gina Haspell (my nickname for her is rated M and based on her first name) is blocking the release of declassified documents. This is why things have taken so long to come to light. She is guilty, knows it, and is covering up her own guilt. She should have been removed long ago. Misc items. In the process of calling Trump names, Biden slandered the kid who shot three Pantifa thugs in self defense. His super attorney, Lin Wood announced they are suing Biden for libel, and they are already suing FakeBook. This kid will be an American hero and millionaire when it's all done. Touchy Joe said Pantifa was an idea. Trump said ideas don't burn down businesses. True. Ideas also don't have web pages that STILL take you directly to Biden's web page. Ideas don't have their own flag and meet with ISIS in Syria. Oklahoma is charging these thugs with terrorism, and the DA said, "This isn't Seattle". Awesome. On the sports front, the NFL is threatening teams with lost draft picks if their coaches keep taking off their masks. The league is just one big virtue signal lost cause. The woke NBA is currently playing their finals, and ratings are down 39%. Trump just announced and emergency order concerning rare earth elements. China has bought 98% of the REE mines throughout the world. However, the single biggest mine is in the US and hasn't been mined in decades. This will open it back up, and Alaska is loaded in REE. Those are needed for our high tech military weapons. Trump keeps putting America first. Mexifornia announced a task force to look into reparations for slavery. Mexifornia was formed AFTER the Civil War and after slavery was banned. What they are doing is announcing they are looking into paying blacks who no longer vote democrat to go back to their old ways. Here's a fun fact, all of the top ten cities with the highest murder rates are run by libs, as are 18 0f the top 20. Do you remember the study showing masks decrease blood oxygen levels by 17%? That study was done on a super fit athlete after two minutes of light activity. That figure would be MUCH worse in our typical out of shape obese citizenship. Dwayne the Rock Johnson has always been politically neutral in public, but has gone full retard, and he is getting blasted for it. The guy who starred in a Saturday Night Live skit as a child molesting robot, and who has said he "eats kids" (adrenochrome) probably has his name on a flight log to Pedo Island. That brings us to rumor number two. Do you remember the awesome Bush funeral when the wives of The Fuhrer (nickname for Obama), Jeb, Gore, Pence and Hillarnazi received a surprise envelope that SHOCKED them? Supposedly the message was from dear dead dad and said "They KNQW everything. I'm sorry". Note the spelling with the Q. The final rumor is just in, and is in this video. This guy seems very authoritative and actually lists a TON of sources. He says the Pope, Petrus Romanoff, had a child with the president of Argentina that they sacrificed to Satan. He said the Pope has been removed and this will be official in February, Tuck that away. Q stuff, Q posted the fact that the corrupt US attorney of the SDNY was replaced by Comey's son in law. A handful of people are holding the country hostage, He also noted that Comey's daughter was in charge of investigating the Epstein suicide, and her husband in on the Ghiselain Maxwell case. He just posted a few minutes ago, and get this. The moderator for the next debate was an intern for Biden. Q also lamented what America would look like if CV-19 wasn't released. The economy, the rallies, reason for mail in voting, etc. Trump could reverse this by ordering everything is opened up, and lets not forget that HE put Fascist Fauxci in place, not Biden. Images: Hillarnazi, arson, Ruthless, debate, an idea, two visions, AOC, 2020, debate, Wallace, the PedoRock, simple, FBI, Wallace, morons (Edit: I’ll work on getting his links included available, I just don’t know how yet. There is another labeled “TGIF” that just came in this afternoon. 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Common Totals Some of the most common total scores you will see in football are 37 and 41. In fact, these are the most common scores in the last 10 years in the National Football League (NFL). In a game where the total is 37, you will likely see a score of 20-17 or 27-10. In a game where the total is 41, you will likely see a score of 21-20. Our betting trends, also known as public betting percentages, represent actual wagers. A large money percentage indicates a higher likelihood that pros are betting on this side. Monitoring public betting data is a vital tool used by sharp bettors to find value within the sports betting marketplace. Eagles vs. 49ers, 10/4/20 NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Predictions Sunday, 04 October 2020 Eagles vs. 49ers SNF Prediction The Eagles will look to avoid falling to 0-3 on the season when they visit the banged-up 49ers at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday Night Football. The consensus is what betting percentage the general public is taking on each side of an NFL game. Some NFL bettors love betting with the public no matter which teams are playing and what the betting trends say. For others, the public is always wrong and they will constantly bet against them when making their football picks. Compare this week's NFL odds, money lines, point spreads and totals. Check out live NFL odds and NFL lines for the best online sportsbooks at Sportsbook Review.
NFL Week 13 Totals Rundown, Picks And Leans with Teddy Covers
Professional handicapper Teddy Covers and SBR Videos host Peter Loshak offer a Totals rundown for Week 13 complete with their NFL picks and leans and discuss possible betting value on the games ... OSGA video analyst and professional sports handicapper Ross Benjamin discusses 2 of his NFL picks on Sunday's card that oppose public betting trends. Professional sports handicapper Ross Benjamin discusses the record scoring pace we've witnessed through the first 4 weeks of the NFL season. Ross also looks ... Betting on totals in NFL and college football can be one of the best ways to bet on football profitably. Professional sports betting analysts Mike Brenner and Peter Loshak give a brief ... Professional sports handicapper Ross Benjamin begins a series of videos pertaining to betting on each NFL team's regular season winning totals. Part 1 of thi...
