I know that sounds like generic bullshit that everyone says, or like i'm just toeing the party line but fuckk

• paid off $2.2k debt
• tapered off going to AA meetings, now i'm listening to podcasts and working online with my time instead of hearing depressing shit. still gonna try to go to 1 a week or so just for my dose of dreary
• made significant mental health progress feat. much improved at getting over a creepy obsessive crush
• had band practice yesterday, played fucking well. we're playing our first gig in january, i'll reevaluate around then, hopefully being sober the whole time, if i wanna drink in that environment
• i really don't get any cravings. never really have. either way, i've been prescribed naltrexone. not taking any; saving it for situations like the above
• showed up to my job every day, slightly better at socializing
• appreciating the cozy fall weather without wanting to drink
• watching sports and making some vague profit betting, but also being awake and able to remember games past the 4th inning
• i don't think anyone hates me

i feel insanely comforted knowing how well i handled my last bender [eating, drinking water, only letting it go for 4-5 days] AND knowing i have naltrexone now should anything go awry. but honestly right now i don't even want to work on breaking any reward system neurolinks, i'm just happy not hurting my brain or liver or life
yeet

Some real exciting new talent made their mark on this first round. One of the bright points of the day was the rain delay as I got a chance to just watch one match all the way through, although it was unfortunately the Mladenovic implosion. Question for you all. When you make a get a dropshot and it was 2 bounces, do you always know? Siegemund clearly made one but didn't seem to react as if she did.
Halep Begu : Halep is about a -1000 favorite against Begu, which makes sense because she’s never lost a match to her compatriot. Last round I said Halep would have to work, and she only had to do one set worth of work, dishing out a donut in her second set. Begu played great against Tiechmann throughout, and I’m going with the same story. Halep played great in Rome, and should certainly win this, but Begu’s power will win her some games (maybe 6) along the way. Halep in 2.
Pera Anisimova : Pera delivered on her status as a favorite against Bellis, winning a close 1st set and running away with it from there. Her reward is more American tennis with Anisimova, who was down 2-0 and didn’t drop another game. Her easy power is really translating well to the slow courts in Paris and Korpatsch struggled to work her way into the match. Pera will be a much tougher test, but it looks like Anisimova came to play. Anisimova in 2.
Gavrilova Bouchard : Yastremska got a poor surprise in round one, as Gavrilova arrived back on tour right where she left off. She’s always been a difficult defender, and she outclassed Yastremska from start to finish here. Bouchard got late breaks in both sets against Kalinskaya, and while she looked fairly solid, she struggled to find the easy winners that she had in her run in Istanbul. Gavrilova will be a better defender and have a bit less nerves as she progresses through this tournament. I think she defends here until Bouchard gives up some errors. Gavrilova in 3.
Hsieh Swiatek : Surprise results in the early round here (for my foolish heart at least) as Hsieh played some great tennis and Swiatek found her best tennis. Hsieh makes tennis look like a simple game that other people make complicated. She just moves the ball around and has every shot and uses every spin and never gets upset. Swiatek beating Voundrousova moves her forecast out several rounds further than this contest, and the manner in which she did it means she’ll be able to take advantage of the slower paces that Hsieh moves the ball at. Swiatek in 2.
Gauff Trevisan : Gauff is becoming a pusher and I’m not sure it’s a terrible plan. She really didn’t go for much against Konta, choosing instead to put pace on every ball and drive the ball to big targets when she had the inititative. Konta really folded under this pressure, in a similar way to how Jabeur lost the week before. Gauff’s conservative style is well suited to the slow courts and damp conditions, and Trevisan will have a tough time finding winners. Giorgi was winning 5-2 in her first round and didn’t win another game, retiring at 3-0 in the second. Trevisan wasn’t bad, but was going the way of the dinosaurs (not dragons, which still exist in France) if not for the injury. Gauff has struggled to deliver as a favorite, but should win this. Gauff in 2-3.
Rakhimova Sakkari : Bit confusing here as Sakkari was slated as a -800 favorite in this match. Rakhimova was brilliant in the qualifiers, and beat Rogers 2,3 in the first round. Two things may be at play here. One, Rakhimova is such a small market and Sakkari is a very popular name. Two, Sakkari is a legitimate threat to win this event that we’re somewhat overlooking. One of the most physically imposing athletes on the tour, Sakkari’s defense and power coupled with a lack of pressure may have her in good shape for a very deep run here. Williams doesn’t look great, Halep is all about imploding when you least expect it, Keys is out, and Muguruza/Azarenka haven’t looked great on clay thus far. This is pure speculation, but it sure is easy for the mind to tell a story to match the line. I’d avoid picking anyone in this match, as it either will be much closer than predicted, or Sakkari will be a good candidate to beat Gauff in the next round. Sakkari in 3, probably.
Pavlyuchenkova Siniakova : The Pavs Kuznets first round delivered, as Kuznetsova found a beautiful second set of tennis. The skill is evident in her game, if the defense is starting to become an issue. Siniakova had a fairly straightforward match against Davis, and this next matchup is a puzzle factory if I ever saw one. Both player hit the ball pretty solid and both defend pretty well. Neither really serve aces, but Pavs probably gets more unreturned. I can picture Siniakova’s defending earning her errors, but it’s unlikely that Pavs makes enough to lose a whole match. Ultimately, I think Pavs will be the more stable offensive player. Pavlyuchenova in 3.
Errani Bertens : Errani continues to churn out wins on clay. At this rate she’ll never leave the tour. Bertens needed extra innings against Zavatska, but like Kei and Anderson it’s nice to see her get a win. Bertens is favored her but I don’t see it. Errani has been winning without dropping sets, and Bertens has been tentative and inconsistent. Errani in 2.
Svitolina Zarazua : OOooh. Svitolina didn’t exactly overwhelm in the first round, and Zarazua has a lot of momentum coming into this. Big test for Zarazua given she’s been playing lower tier opponents during this winstreak. Svitolina may take a while to adjust to her game, but she’ll have the goods in the end. Svitolina in 2.
Sharma Alexandrova : Sharma’s late surge got her a second round at Roland Garros, and Alexandrova is a player who’s susceptible to lapses in quality if you drag a match out. She hits a lot bigger and with more direction than Blinkova though, and Sharma is likely to spend a lot of this match defending forehand offerings from Alexandrova. Alexandrova in 2.
Garcia Sasnovich : “Garcia is gonna get the same beating”, “Kontaveit always wins when she’s supposed to”, and other nonsense opinions were not fine finding for me last night. Garcia really played well and deserve that win. Playing at home has to be an extra boost to her comfort, and it showed as her offense seems less forced and more fluid. Sasnovich needed extra innings against Friedsam, but will be happy with her victory. Garcia’s power (when it lands in the court) gives her a strong ability to control rallies. Her aggressive returning should start to make inroads in the second set, as Sasnovich tends to have lapses in quality on offense. Garcia in 3.
Kanepi Mertens : Kanepi landed another blow to my predictions, outlasting Bouzkova. She’ll be a good test for Mertens early in the event, but I don’t think her defense is up to the task. Mertens moves the ball well and doesn’t miss much. Mertens in 2.
Azarenka Schmiedlova : Azarenka beat Kovinic, who I might like to beat Schmiedlova, 1 and 2. Her next round will be supremely difficult, but this one probably won’t. I don’t want to shrug off AK’s win against Venus Williams, as that was difficult, but Azarenka in 2.
Podoroska Putintseva : Podoroska is so good. I was reminded of Milejevic’s performance against Krajinovic while watching her. She crushes the ball and is constantly moving forward. Really a complete performance, and I was hoping she’d play one of the weaker defenders. Putintseva is a tough out, and this represents the immovable object vs the unstoppable force in some ways. I’m not sure if Podoroska can hit through Putintseva, who’s been top notch since the tour’s restart. I think momentum will be important here, as Putintseva’s defending will be a test, but her offensive offerings likely won’t be scoring as easily either. Podoroska in 3.
Strycova Krejcikova : Strycova surprised a couple people with a win on clay. Lepchenko struggled to find winners and to hold serve, and Stojanovic encountered a similar problem against the big-hitting Krejcikova. Matches between compatriots are often tight, and I give a slight edge to Krejcikova here. Younger, bigger hitter, and slightly more hungry for wins. Krejcikova in 3.
Pironkova Williams : Pironkova is so refreshing, and made quick work of Petkovic. Williams struggled early and often with Ahn, but as is her usual style, once she gets control of rallies and minimizes errors, she rolls. Pironkova isn’t quite as good on clay, but the -250 line for Serena is not only trappy, it’s the lowest you’ll see her booked (it’s actually lower than her USO finals against Andreescu where she was -275). I’m not reading tea leaves, but the Williams who beat Ahn won’t beat Pironkova. The second set Williams will. I think the same as their USO match, these two will trade sets. Slight edge to Pironkova here because she’s not dealing with the fatigue/leg injury that she was in the USO, and because the slower court gives her more time returning serve and in rallies. Pironkova in 3.
Sabalenka Kasatkina : Sabalenka continued her stellar play, and this next matchup is a juicy one. Kasatkina had her ankle wrapped against Tan, but moved as if she’s fully recovered. This is a match not to miss, as it’s a Darya vs Goliath story in the making. Sabalenka’s power really will be a tough test for Kasatkina, whose backhand can break down at times. Kasatkina’s slice-heavy game coupled with her dropshots will earn some errors from Sabalenka, as taller players tend to struggle a bit moving forward and generating that low forehand. Edge goes to Sabalenka here as she really was excellent against Pegula. A few times in the first set Pegula broke back and threatened, but Aryna tightened the screws every time. Sabalenka in 3ish.
Hibino Jabeur : The Kostyuk line was wayyyyyy off, and Marta looked great in the qualifiers but ran into the two week lunar event that Hibino seems to have become. Some great play in Strasbourg continued, and her test with Jabeur next round is another where her ability to defend and move her opponents with the backhand down the line could be key. Jabeur needed three sets to get past Diyas, and after a quick loss to Jabeur last week, she won’t be feeling supremely confident. Nao’s bows after a win are the most super adorable thing, and she’s a better version of Diyas at this point. Hibino in 3.
Tauson Collins : Holy wow. Tauson is absurdly good. She hits the right shot and an effective shot 100% of the time. She doesn’t make careless errors. She doesn’t struggle serving. She doesn’t react when she loses a point. She doesn’t react when she wins a point. Jenn Brady played some great tennis today, and usually a junior player will fade in the third set, but Clara never blinked, and I honestly think she’ll win a title before the end of next year. Gauff is a “wow she’s so good for her age / she’s probably going to become #1 someday” talent. Tauson is a “wow this girl is already a top 20 player with no holes in her game” generational talent. Just wow.
Collins turned the tide against Niculescu and put the work in to get through this match. Niculescu’s game is really reliant on her opponent making errors from her slice forehands, and Collins did while she lost, and didn’t while she won. I really didn’t want to see a player like Collins for Tauson in this round because Collins is a rare sort who swings for the fences in all her matches, so her opponent tends not to matter. It’s possible that she’ll win this next round with good serving and big groundstrokes. But then she’ll wake up, bleary eyed and confused. Wait, it was all a dream? Yes, Danielle, you lost 4 and 3. Tauson in 2.
Kr Pliskova Gu Muguruza : Pliskova looked better than her sister in her debut this week, and she’ll be a bit of a threat to Muguruza. Luckily for Garbine, she played a very useful contest with Zidansek in the first round. Zidansek pretty much always wears a hat, but she took it off today and showed off her nice shaped head. She played great and there was a ton of solid defending on display. Muguruza will have her usual difficulties with errors, but Zidansek played her into shape well, and Pliskova’s movement is not good enough to defend in the same fashion. She’s mainly a frontrunner. Muguruza in 3.
Rybakina Ferro : Rybakina showed no signs of fatigue in a quick win against Cirstea, and Ferro got the job done to maintain her undefeated record against Watson. Ferro is a player to watch, and her recent run on clay means this will be tight, but Rybakina is one of the better players in the draw at this point. Rybakina in 2.
Tig McHale : Solid win for Tig, but not the overwhelming performance I’d want to see to make her a lock against Mchale. Mchale pulled off a very good win, and since the restart she hasn’t really improved from her former peaks, but has been at or near her best. Tig’s title win was great, but Bouchard may be a cut below Mchale in some respects, and the slow surface here I suspect will make Mchale a tough out here. Mchale in 3.
Bara Van Uytvanck : Bara was really good against Vekic, something I didn’t see coming. AVU needed 3 sets but eventually found a good run of serving against Peterson. With these two first round results it’s hard to pick against Bara. The qualifiers look real good this round. Bara in 2.
Bogdan Kenin : Babos just couldn’t find a groove in her first round. She made some good gets on the backhand wing, but Bogdan was composed, and served much better than normal. Babos was shaking her head, but Bogdan is through to the second round and Timea is starting to look like she’ll be moving out of the top 100 in the rankings. Kenin needed 3 sets which makes me a bit hesitant about her chances of a deep run, but Samsonova is a big hitter so it’s not the end of the world. This next matchup against Bogdan will be a bit tougher, and I think it’ll go the distance. Someone in 3.
Kvitova Paolini : Kvitova makes bird noises, and Paolini doesn’t. How can I decide? On one hand, I like bird noises. On the other hand, I don’t like them on the tennis court. Paolini’s win against Bolsova was good but there’s a stylistic issue there that’s consistently thrown that contest her way. Kvitova is a much different situation, and I think Paolini will thrive until her serve falters. Kvitova in 3.
Hercog Fernandez : Parry is pretty darn good, and is the first one-handed backhand I’ve seen on the WTA in a long time. She hits is solid and the slice is vicious. Hercog basically camped out in the backhand corner and hit forehands to Parry’s backhand until she found a winner. It was tedious to watch but a very good strategy against a junior player with a one-hander. Bright future for Parry, and good win for Hercog. Linette was her usual perfect self in the first set, and from there things faded. Fernandez really is a great defender, and Linette was visibly flustered, although from an observer standpoint, she was in control of most of the rallies. That mental prison of trying to hit through an opponent and having every offering come back can really work against a player, and Linette had more opportunities in this one than the score would suggest, since honestly Fernandez did not generate a lot of winners.
Hercog Fernandez is the same as Linette with a few variations. Hercog’s forehand to Fernandez’ backhand will be an issue because Polona has shown willingness (against Voundrousova last week) to hang in that exchange foreeever. Her slice backhand is a good safe target for Fernandez’ forehand, but is difficult to hit winners off of. I don’t see a quick path to victory for either of these players, and I think Fernandez will pull away late. Fernandez in 3.
Juvan Burel : Juvan really looked good against Kerber, with a straight sets victor against the former champ. Burel pulled off a nice upset against Rus, but the road ends here. Juvan is a solid claycourt threat, and will have a shot in the third round as well. Juvan in 2.
Cornet Zhang : Cornet has a tough test here since Zhang has been one of the solid performers and is content to battle on the baseline. Cornet has the cleaner offense, but is used to counterpunching so this will be a mental battle more than anything. Keys just struggled throughout, and Zhang did well not to fold in the second set tiebreaker when Keys was starting to gain momentum. Small edge to Cornet here but for betting porpoises I’d avoid it. Cornet in 3.
Martic Kudermetova : Martic reaaaaaally squeaked this one out. Doi was really testing her movement and earning errors throughout, but Martic winning the first set tiebreak kinda stifled Doi’s momentum. A late comeback from 4-1 down looked good, but it was too little too late and Martic used the stretch to gather herself and close out. Kudermetova was solid but Parmentier is really just about done on tour. She’s had a great career and notched a lot of big wins, but she hasn’t won too many matches in the past year. Martic should be a pretty solid favorite here. Martic in 2.
Siegemind Goerges : Mladenovic was up 5-1 in the first set when she hit a dropshot while ahead in Siegemund’s service game. Siegemund got the ball on 2 bounces, and the ensuing backspin caused her pseudo-dropshot to go back over her side of the net. Mladenovic reached over and touched the net in the process and lost the match. I know you’d think she’s just lose the point, but she lost the next 6 games in a row, and never really found her form again.
Goerges and Riske had a big hitting affair but it wasn’t really good quality stuff. Goerges had the match in control but faltered late in the second, and really only the third set was well played on her part. Her power and serving give her an edge here, but her errors/rust make this a close contest. I lean Siegemund in 3.
Stephens Badosa : Sloane wins a match! Nice. Badosa in 3.
Ostapenko Pliskova : I dunno. Ostapenko was pretty great against Brengle. Pliskova was pretty mundane against Sherif. I’ll just talk about Sherif. Sherif is a very talented defender. She doesn’t hit that hard, and her forehand is a bit loopy, but she focuses on the placement of her shots and she drove Pliskova crazy today. There were a number of situations where she forewent the proper swing to put the ball in a tough spot down the line or deep in the court today, and it paid off. I’m not at all against moonballing and I thought Sherif played a much more competitive match than she would have if she just tried to play “textbook tennis”. Pliskova is very good, but I’m not sure that she’s at her best here on these slow courts. Ostapenko isn’t exactly the defensive presence Sherif is, which makes this a bit of a gun battle. I think, despite a number of upsets already being on the menu, that Ostapenko will come through here. Ostapenko in 3.

SPORTS BETTING SECTION:
I use my DFS Cheat Sheets to find sports betting picks and plays. I usually won’t give you a direct play as I want you to decide if you want to bet the money line, run line or parlay it with something else. I’ll give you the games that jump out at me and the reasoning behind it. We have been on fire this year hitting a +600 two team parlay on Saturday with Nationals +250 and over 9.5. We followed that up with a 4-0 day. Last night I didn’t have time to write anything up but posted the “over” that I liked and it won. I actually parlayed two overs with Padres RL and Dodgers RL and also hit the parlay. LAD was tied 4-4 and then scored 2 in the 10th for a cover and Padres squeaked by with a 2 run win. It was a good night when I felt like crap. Let’s look at what I have on tap for today!
GIANTS / PADRES OVER 9.0 RUNS – Vegas has this game at 9.0 runs and our model has this at 6.2 vs. 6.0 runs for a 12.2 run total. I LIKE IT! If this game is 4-4 then you are getting a “push” at worst. These teams rank #1 and #2 in our L10 game power rankings so we are going to have some offensive firepower tonight. Padres are 2nd in runs per game, 1st in team batting average, 2nd in OBISO and 2nd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days. Giants are 4th in runs per game, 2nd in team batting average, 2nd in OBSIO and also 2nd for wRC+. Both teams how lower than average team K rates at 22% and 19%. Padres faced Trevor Cahill who owns a 5.98 ERA and allowing a .273 batting average to opponent hitters. When he gets shelled then we get to tee off on the 23rd ranked bullpen with an xFIP of 5.45! My god that is horrible. Giants get to face Chris Paddack and the reason this line is 9 and not 9.5 or 10 is because of Paddack. Giants are red hot right now so I don’t expect them to suddenly stop hitting and get shut down. Paddack was a rock star last year but this year holds a 4.75 ERA with a 3.71 xFIP and allowing a .270 batting average. In 43 team Abs by the Giants against Paddack they are hitting .279 with 2 HRs. Paddack is coming off a start where he gave up 4 ER in 4.2 innings but prior to that start he had a stellar outing in COL going 6.0 with 0 ER and 8 Ks. Then his prior 3 starts he gave up 6, 1 and 6 ERs. I like the OVER here. I don’t mind a small play with Giants money line +180 parlayed with the over. If the Giants win this game WILL GET OVER the total. I don’t see value in laying -185 on the Padres vs. a team that is 8-2 in their last 10 games and 15-5 in their last 20 games and running hot. I just hope both teams score a shit ton of runs and I can’t stop watching in the 5th inning because the game is 5-5.
DODGERS -200 OVER ARIZONA – This one is the usual play here as the Dodgers are a much better team as they rank 7th in our L10 game power rankings and hold the #1 bullpen. Facing an ARI team that is giving up on the year with a 15-29 record, lost 5 straight and 1-9 in their last 10 games. If you read the DFS portion you’ll know that Mad Bum has been getting shelled giving up 2, 6 and 7 ER in his last 2 starts and those only combined for 10.1 innings. Dodgers are 9-2 vs. LHP on the year. Even after Mad Bum is out ARI holds the 25th ranked bullpen with an xFIP over 5.00, do we really need to write anymore on this? Dustin May is decent with an ERA of 2.88 and allowing a .232 batting average but either way LAD can lock the game down with the bullpen. I’ll likely lean run line for a straight play as I don’t bet game -200 straight up.
BALTIMORE +230 over NYY – First hear me out because people are going flip when they see that I’m making a play against their NYY. With +230 odds you only need this game to win a small percentage of the time. NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 games and 6-14 in their last 20 games. BAL isn’t a powerhouse but they just beat COLE last week with a score of 6-1. They loss to the NYM last time out 7-6 in a tight game and their prior 4 games they won beating NYM 11-2, NYY 5-1, NYY again 6-1 and NYY 6-3. They beat Tanaka and Cole in two of those. NYY won against TOR 7-2 but prior to that they have only scored 1, 7, 1 and 1 runs. You don’t have to bet this straight up at +230 but I’d mix the +230 into a small parlay and hope to get lucky. I will point out that NYY are 8-14 on the road but they return home where they hold a 14-7 record. BAL ranks 4th in our L10 game power rankings and NYY are 27th. I’m sure not going to lay -260 on NYY right now.
MIAMI +100 OVER PHILLY – Our model has this game as MIA winning 5.0 vs 4.7. So we have this as a close game but with Miami pulling it out. MIA ranks 18th and PHI 15th in our L10 game power rankings. Philly has been a hotter team but the bottom of the lineup is rough. This is going to come down to pitching because the bullpens are garbage ranking 28th for MIA and 30th for PHI. Jake Arrieta is coming off a great start of 7.0 innings with only 2 ER and 7 Ks but his prior start he only lasted 1.1 innings with 7 ERs and 0 strikeouts, so which Arrieta are we going to see? If it’s the ladder MIA could blow the doors off this game early! I will point out that Corey Dickerson is 6 for 14 off Arrieta and Matt Joyce 7 for 21 and Miguel Rojas 5 for 14. In 83 team Abs they are hitting .337 off Arrieta. Sandy Alcantara is in a much better spot in my opinion. 2 starts ago he got roughed up a little giving up 5 ER to Tampa Bay in 4.0 innings but his last start and two prior were great. He is coming off 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 8 strikeouts u/TB so he got his redemption. His 3rd and 4th recent tarts were a combined 11.2 innings, 2 ER and 11 strikeouts. He also just faced PHI on the road on 7/24 and went 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 7 strikeouts.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

I know a lot of us have been calling for Foakes's inclusion for a long time, but proven probably wrong this summer. However, with Buttler's keeping being mediocre (for test level) at best, it's going to continue to be an issue.
In England, where a first innings par score is often around 250-350, wickets are generally less valuable than they are in say Australia, where par might be as high as 500. Additionally wicket-keeping becomes more important in the subcontinent where wickets can be more valuable on flatter decks, or on turners where you need to keep to many overs of spin.
The conclusion to this quandry is that Ben Foakes (in my opinion) has to play this winter, but there is no simple way to fit him in which isn't grossly unfair or short-sighted. So, the options as they stand are:
1. Leave Foakes out
The easy answer, no disruption to the batting lineup, who have all performed well or well enough over the past year or so, and certainly none deserve to be dropped in a straight swap for Foakes the batsman (even though he is a very fine batsman). I've already outlined the downside to this approach in the introduction to this post.
2. Straight swap for Buttler
The advantage of this option is that you get the best wicket-keeper (who's good enough to bat in tests) in the country behind the stumps for a tough pair of tours where keeping is likely to be crucial. However, Buttler has proved many of us, if not completely wrong, wrong for now over the summer in being one of our best batsmen consistently. He's also an excellent player of spin, so probably merits selection on his batting alone at present.
3. Swap for Pope, move Buttler to six
Pope's arguably been the weakest link of our lower-middle order this Summer (although the other two are Buttler and Stokes, to be fair to him), so on the surface this makes sense. In reality, it would be utterly ludicrous to drop the most promising player in the entire country (sorry, Zak) because he was merely 'fine'. For me, this is probably the worst decision available, so I bet the selectors do it.
4. Drop Burns, move everyone up a spot
With this approach, you can bring in Foakes for your worst-performing batsman even though they fulfil totally different roles, and Crawley's performances and opening experience make this a feasible option. The obvious downside is that you're fucking with the entire batting line-up except Buttler and Sibley, with Root at 3, Stokes at 4 and Pope at 5. It's also pretty harsh on Burns, who was okay against the Windies and pretty good before that, before a horrible series against Pakistan.
Conclusion
Personally, I think the best of a bad set of options is to go with option 4 and drop Burns. I think it's a pretty shit plan, and reverts to our habit of fucking around with the entire team balance to accomodate Buttler, but at least he's earned that right this time. Ultimately, it's a good dilemma to have, rather than searching around desperately to find 7 'good enough' batsmen, but I really feel for Burns if we go down this route. It also opens up a whole can of worms when we get back to England if Foakes performs as well as he's capable of, but we'll leave that thread for the end of the tours.
Would love to hear any alternative suggestions or different preferences out of the options I've put forwards.

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues into Red Thursday where my Chiefs open the season against the Houston Texans! Sorry there was not article yesterday I felt awful and have some kind of an ear infection and extremely dizzy. It’s like being intoxicated without drinking. Today I think I’m on the up swing as I went to the Dr. and got some steroids to help drain the fluid. Let’s jump into this main slate!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
GERRIT COLE – Only pitcher on the main slate today over 10k. Cole has been up and down this year but coming off a 27.9 DK point start vs. this same BAL team where he went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 10 strikeouts. Cole has the highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 16.8% and the next closest person is Paddack at only 12.4%. In 62 team Abs vs. Cole BAL is hitting only 0.177 with a 31% strikeout rate. BAL is “hot” rightnow ranking 4th in our L10 game power rankings but Cole is just too much for them.
SONNY GRAY – He isn’t that much cheaper than Cole so I don’t see any reason to pivot down if you have the salary to spend. He is coming off a -13.3 DK point start where STL tagged him for 6 ER in 0.2 innings. Prior to that start he had 19 and 17 DK points so I think 9600 is too much for the risk. On a positive note if you are on the Gray train he did face this Cubs team on 7/29 and put up his highest DK point performance of the year with 39.2 DK points going 6.2 innings with 0 ER and 11 strikeouts. Can he do it again? He has also faced this team for 100 Abs and they are only hitting a low .110 off him with a 32% strikeout rate. GPP only for me but his track records vs. Cubbies is impeccable!
ADBERT ALZOLAY – Here is your GPP play today. He wasn’t in my write up and I looked over him and my first thought was his price tag is way too high and he walks to many hitters. So that is perfect for a GPP play! After digging in I am intrigued on him as a play today. His last outing (I say outing because I don’t know if it was a start or out of the pen) he went 2.2 innings, gave up 2 ER and walked 5 batters. Wow that is ugly! However, prior to that he went 1.0 with 2 Ks, 5.0 with 0 ER and 6 Ks and then 2.0 with 1 ER and 1K. So we have limited innings to look at but some have been really good. He has a 2.08 ERA but his xFIP is 3.96 which is slightly better than average. His K9 rate is insane at 12.5 this year and allowing a .167 batting average. Typically, I would expect his BABIP to be really low for those stats but it is .263 so slightly lower than average but nothing crazy. Plus look at this soft matchup vs. CIN who ranks 28th in our L10 power rankings, 27th in runs per game, 28th in team batting average (.220) and 23rd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days.
KEEGAN AKIN – He has a tough matchup against a NYY team that is starting to heat up but he is priced at a low 6700 on DK so falls into our “punt” category. His last two starts were 23.8 DK points and it was facing this NYY team where he went 5.1 innings, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. The start before was 19 DK points and he went 4.1 innings, 0 ER and 6 strikeouts. Prior to that it appears he was working out of the pen. So in two starts he has 9.2 innings, 0 ER and 14 strikeouts, yes please! Allowing a 0.174 batting average and facing guys like Gary Sanchez (.122 avg), Brett Gardner (.165), Mike Ford (.139), Aaron Hicks (.209) why not? Our model actually has BAL winning this game, that might be a stretch but BAL is +230 so they only need to win a small percentage of the time.
SANDY ALCANTARA – Alcantara faces PHI today so we want to look and see if he has faced them already this year and the answer is YES! So how did he do? He went 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 7 Ks for 28 DK points. Priced at 6600 today that is pushing 5x value. I use terms of “X” value because Cole won’t be close to 5x. That would mean Cole at 10,000 (which he is slightly over 10k today) would need 10,000 x 5 = 50+ DK points. 3 of his last 4 starts have been stellar outings putting up 28, -2, 28 and 18 DK points. His BABIP of .214 is really low and that worries me that we might have a “blow up” spot soon but with 3 of his last 4 starts pushing 5x value on a shorter slate he has to be in the player pool.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
DODGERS VS. MAD BUM (25TH BULLPEN) – Poor Mad Bum getting shelled this year and that is putting it lightly. His high this year in terms of DK points is 14.4 points and that was on 7/29. His last 3 starts he put up 6.0, -7 and -7.5 DK points. In those 3 starts he has only lasted a combined 10.1 innings and gave up 14 ERs and only managed 6 Ks. LAD comes in ranking 7th in our L10 game power rankings and they have faced Mad Bum for 176 team Abs and hitting a solid .318 off him with 8 HRs. I like anyone in this lineup to plug into your other stacks. AJ Pollock is hitting .290 on the year and holds a .407 wOBA vs. LHP and vs. Mad Bum specifically he is 18 for 63 (.286) with 3 HRs. KiKi Hernandez is 25 for 50 (.500) with 4 HRs, Wow! That is insane! Hitting .500 off a pitcher through 50 Abs. Pollock is only 3900 and KiKi is only 3500. Muncy and Taylor have both struggled vs. Mad Bum hitting .182 and .130 with 10+ Abs. I like Mookie / Seager / Pollock / KiKi and then fitting in a 4th of your choice that is affordable.
MIAMI MARLINS VS. JAKE ARRIETA (30TH BULLPEN) – So I want to get at least one lineup with Cole & Sonny Gray so that means I need to find a cheap stack that has some potential. Marlins are where I’m looking today as Vegas has them projected at 4.6 runs and our model has them a 5.0 and they are DIRT CHEAP! They are a middle of the road team trying to make a move. Now let’s start looking at Jake Arrieta who has been up and down. He is coming off a terrific start of 7.0 innings, 2 ER and 7 Ks vs. a tough NYM team and he was even on the road. His start before he was -16.4 points and only lasted 1.1 innings and gave up 7 ERs with NO strikeouts. So which Jake are we going to see? Even if he has a good start the bullpen is awful with an xFIP of 4.88, whip of 1.89 and allowing a .328 batting average. Think about that! The bullpen for PHILLY is allowing a batting average of .328, that is just horrible! The H9 is also 2.24 which is one of the highest in the entire MLB. In 83 team Abs they are hitting .337 off Arrieta with a 22% strikeout rate. Corey Dickerson (3000 – crazy cheap!) is 6 for 14 off Arrieta, Matt Joyce (2100 – is that priced correct? My god that is low.) is 7 for 21 with a HR and Miguel Rojas (3400) is 5 for 14 also with a HR. Cooper (3100) is 0 for 5 but he is red hot right now with 14 and 21 DK points in his last two games and 75% of games over the last 12 days he is hitting at least 2x.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. TREVOR CAHILL (23RD BULLPEN) – I like stacking this game. Padres are #1 in our L10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game (6.7), 1st in team batting average (.305) and 2nd in OBISO and 2nd in wRC+ over the last 14 days. What makes my system so much easier is having my MLB Cheat Sheet where I can quickly see game stats and project how a game will play out. It is helpful for DFS and Sports Betting. Cahill has a 5.98 ERA and allowing a .273 batting average. He had some arm discomfort so his last two starts were only 2.2 and 3.1 innings as they are trying not to put too much strain on him. In his last 3 starts they were all vs. ARI he has 11.1 innings, 4 ERs and 14 strikeouts. Now ARI is hardly a power house team and they rank 23rd in our power ranking and as of today they are 30th in runs per game, team batting average, team OBISO and wRC+ over the last 14 days. Padres are an entirely new animal he will have to face!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS. CHRIS PADDACK (12TH BULLPEN) – Paddack is a great pitcher and ended last year with a 3.33 ERA and allowing a .204 batting average in 140.2 innings. Awesome! However, this year is a different story as he sits with a 4.75 ERA and allowing a .270 batting average. His xFIP indicates his ERA should be closer to 3.71. He is up and down in his starts coming off a 4.2 inning, 4 ER outing u/OAK. Prior to that start he hd a solid 29.9 DK point start @ COL of all places and went 6.0 innings, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. His 3 prior starts to that he allowed 6, 1 and 6 ERs. Our model has the Padres projected at 6.2 runs and Giants at 6.0 runs. Stack the game, stack the Padres, stack the Giants and let’s have some fun!
SPORTS BETTING SECTION:
I use my DFS Cheat Sheets to find sports betting picks and plays. I usually won’t give you a direct play as I want you to decide if you want to bet the money line, run line or parlay it with something else. I’ll give you the games that jump out at me and the reasoning behind it. We have been on fire this year hitting a +600 two team parlay on Saturday with Nationals +250 and over 9.5. We followed that up with a 4-0 day. Last night I didn’t have time to write anything up but posted the “over” that I liked and it won. I actually parlayed two overs with Padres RL and Dodgers RL and also hit the parlay. LAD was tied 4-4 and then scored 2 in the 10th for a cover and Padres squeaked by with a 2 run win. It was a good night when I felt like crap. Let’s look at what I have on tap for today!
GIANTS / PADRES OVER 9.0 RUNS – Vegas has this game at 9.0 runs and our model has this at 6.2 vs. 6.0 runs for a 12.2 run total. I LIKE IT! If this game is 4-4 then you are getting a “push” at worst. These teams rank #1 and #2 in our L10 game power rankings so we are going to have some offensive firepower tonight. Padres are 2nd in runs per game, 1st in team batting average, 2nd in OBISO and 2nd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days. Giants are 4th in runs per game, 2nd in team batting average, 2nd in OBSIO and also 2nd for wRC+. Both teams how lower than average team K rates at 22% and 19%. Padres faced Trevor Cahill who owns a 5.98 ERA and allowing a .273 batting average to opponent hitters. When he gets shelled then we get to tee off on the 23rd ranked bullpen with an xFIP of 5.45! My god that is horrible. Giants get to face Chris Paddack and the reason this line is 9 and not 9.5 or 10 is because of Paddack. Giants are red hot right now so I don’t expect them to suddenly stop hitting and get shut down. Paddack was a rock star last year but this year holds a 4.75 ERA with a 3.71 xFIP and allowing a .270 batting average. In 43 team Abs by the Giants against Paddack they are hitting .279 with 2 HRs. Paddack is coming off a start where he gave up 4 ER in 4.2 innings but prior to that start he had a stellar outing in COL going 6.0 with 0 ER and 8 Ks. Then his prior 3 starts he gave up 6, 1 and 6 ERs. I like the OVER here. I don’t mind a small play with Giants money line +180 parlayed with the over. If the Giants win this game WILL GET OVER the total. I don’t see value in laying -185 on the Padres vs. a team that is 8-2 in their last 10 games and 15-5 in their last 20 games and running hot. I just hope both teams score a shit ton of runs and I can’t stop watching in the 5th inning because the game is 5-5.
DODGERS -200 OVER ARIZONA – This one is the usual play here as the Dodgers are a much better team as they rank 7th in our L10 game power rankings and hold the #1 bullpen. Facing an ARI team that is giving up on the year with a 15-29 record, lost 5 straight and 1-9 in their last 10 games. If you read the DFS portion you’ll know that Mad Bum has been getting shelled giving up 2, 6 and 7 ER in his last 2 starts and those only combined for 10.1 innings. Dodgers are 9-2 vs. LHP on the year. Even after Mad Bum is out ARI holds the 25th ranked bullpen with an xFIP over 5.00, do we really need to write anymore on this? Dustin May is decent with an ERA of 2.88 and allowing a .232 batting average but either way LAD can lock the game down with the bullpen. I’ll likely lean run line for a straight play as I don’t bet game -200 straight up.
BALTIMORE +230 over NYY – First hear me out because people are going flip when they see that I’m making a play against their NYY. With +230 odds you only need this game to win a small percentage of the time. NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 games and 6-14 in their last 20 games. BAL isn’t a powerhouse but they just beat COLE last week with a score of 6-1. They loss to the NYM last time out 7-6 in a tight game and their prior 4 games they won beating NYM 11-2, NYY 5-1, NYY again 6-1 and NYY 6-3. They beat Tanaka and Cole in two of those. NYY won against TOR 7-2 but prior to that they have only scored 1, 7, 1 and 1 runs. You don’t have to bet this straight up at +230 but I’d mix the +230 into a small parlay and hope to get lucky. I will point out that NYY are 8-14 on the road but they return home where they hold a 14-7 record. BAL ranks 4th in our L10 game power rankings and NYY are 27th. I’m sure not going to lay -260 on NYY right now.
MIAMI +100 OVER PHILLY – Our model has this game as MIA winning 5.0 vs 4.7. So we have this as a close game but with Miami pulling it out. MIA ranks 18th and PHI 15th in our L10 game power rankings. Philly has been a hotter team but the bottom of the lineup is rough. This is going to come down to pitching because the bullpens are garbage ranking 28th for MIA and 30th for PHI. Jake Arrieta is coming off a great start of 7.0 innings with only 2 ER and 7 Ks but his prior start he only lasted 1.1 innings with 7 ERs and 0 strikeouts, so which Arrieta are we going to see? If it’s the ladder MIA could blow the doors off this game early! I will point out that Corey Dickerson is 6 for 14 off Arrieta and Matt Joyce 7 for 21 and Miguel Rojas 5 for 14. In 83 team Abs they are hitting .337 off Arrieta. Sandy Alcantara is in a much better spot in my opinion. 2 starts ago he got roughed up a little giving up 5 ER to Tampa Bay in 4.0 innings but his last start and two prior were great. He is coming off 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 8 strikeouts u/TB so he got his redemption. His 3rd and 4th recent tarts were a combined 11.2 innings, 2 ER and 11 strikeouts. He also just faced PHI on the road on 7/24 and went 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 7 strikeouts.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Please up arrow if you like our post! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday weekend! I didn’t get an article out yesterday and I apologize. I started looking at the slate and there were so many double header 7 innings games that I just gave up and focused on my FF draft I had that evening. But we have a big 12 game slate starting off at 6:05 pm central so let’s dive in and take a look at it!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
There are several inexpensive pitchers I like today so I’m going to hit on a few studs that you can mix in. All the high end guys have been up and down this year but every pitcher on the slate comes with risk. If I love a pitcher and I am looking at locking him in I will always let you know and today I don’t have anyone I’m locking in but mixing and matching with my favorite stacks.
LUCAS GIOLITO – Gio is on fire this year and the highest priced pitcher on the slate today. He is a -230 favorite so he is likely to get the “Win” which is +4 points on DK. KC has faced him several times and racked up 120 team Abs hitting only .167 with a 33% strikeout rate. Gio’s last 5 starts he has put up 20, 60, 43, 7, 24 and 27 DK points. We were all over him when he tossed his “no no” vs. PIT with 13 Ks. In his last 3 he has 8, 13 and 13 strikeouts giving up plenty of upside even if he does give up a few runs. KC is hardly a power house team ranking 28th in the last 10 game power rankings and 28th in last 14 runs per game.
GERRIT COLE – Cole hasn’t been at his best this year giving up 9 ERs over his last two starts and putting up only 9 and 15 DK points. However, this is Gerrit Cole and he is bound to bounce back strong. Prior to his last two starts he had around 20-25 DK points per start and he has massive strikeout upside. Even in his rough last few starts he has put up 7, 9, 10, 8 and 10 strikeouts. Tonight he gets to face a BAL team that has a 23% strikeout rate over the last 14 days and rank 20th in the last 10 game power rankings. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. In 46 team Abs vs. Cole they are hitting a lowly .196 with a 24% strikeout rate. Cole still has an xFIP of 3.69 on the year and allowing a low .224 batting average. Definitely someone to mix in because that 30+ DK point game is coming.
KENTA MAEDA – Maeda gets to face the Tigers today and they have been decent this year at 17-19 and logging some big wins. Maeda has a massive 17.2% swinging strike rate which is 3rd best on the slate and ahead of Gerrit Cole. He does have a really low .200 BABIP which would indicate that regression is coming but his xFIP is sitting at only 2.80. He is allowing a 0.75 whip and .163 batting average. The Tigers have a 23.9% strikeout rate over the last 14 days and Maeda has put up 8, 7 and 12 strikeouts in his last 3 giving us a shot at a solid floor. He just faced DET on the road and went 6.0 with 3 ER and 8 strikeouts and now he gets to face them at home. Prior to that start he had 24 and 38 DK points outings combining for 13.0 innings, 2 ER and 19 strikeouts. Worst case I think you get 20 DK points and the win but he could go nuts and push 3-3.5x.
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD – When writing this they have two different starting pitchers for tonight. If Justus is starting I like him as a decent punt option at 7600. Prior to his last start at LAA where he got blasted he put up a solid 21, 15 and 29 DK points combing for 18.0 innings, 2 ER and 16 strikeouts. TEX is a pillow fight of a matchup ranking 25th in our last 10 game power rankings and 30th in most of the last 14 day game stats that we have. If Nick M. is starting just look elsewhere.
KRIS BUBIC – Don’t be alarmed when you see my ChiSox stack but Bubic just faced CHW and went 5.1 innings, 2 ER and 8 strikeouts for 19.2 DK points and that is 3x value against a freaking powerhouse of a team! I don’t think I’ll have any shares of him but it is worth throwing out there if you are looking for a low owned GPP dart. I can’t imagine many people are going to take a rookie pitcher vs. the ChiSox.
TREVOR CAHILL – Cahill has been up an down this year with his last 3 starts hitting 8.5 points @ ARI and then another vs. ARI at 24.2 DK points and the 12 points @ LAA. Let’s focus on his last two starts since they were both against the team he is facing today. On the road he only went 3.1 innings, 2 ER and 4 strikeouts and it said he was dealing with some joint inflammation, so he had to exit early. The HOME start (where he is tonight) he went 5.1 innings, only 1 ER and 8 strikeouts. When he is priced at only 6600 if he can give you 24 DK points that is pushing 4x value. To give you another example do you think there is a greater chance of Cole hitting 40 DK points or Cahill hitting 24? You need the best bang for your buck! Now don’t leave 5,000 salary on the table and pivot down to Cahill from Cole that would just be stupid. ARI is ice cold in our rankings, 24th in the last 10 game power rankings and they are 29th or 30th in our last 14 team stats that we post on our sheets. Basically, it should be a soft matchup.
SETH LUGO – I was writing about Spencer Howard here at 5900 and then decided to remove him. He has a really high BABIP which should come down but these NYMs just rocked him on 8/14 and they are running hot right now. So I’m going down to my final pitcher and it just happens to be on the other side with Seth Lugo. Lugo is a gam at 5600 on the slate today but we have to be careful because I don’t know how many innings he will get. It looks like he had two starts on 8/25 and 8/30 and went 3.0 and 3.2 innings and only allowed 1 ER (combined) and had 12 strikeouts, Wow! He has a swinging strike rate this year of 17.8% which is #2 on the slate behind Giolito. He has an ERA of 2.12 and an xFIP of a slightly lower 2.06, 0.94 whip and allowing a .197 batting average. His K9 rate last year was 11.7 and this year it is up to 12.2. He is slightly better at home too! Last year his K9 rate went from 10.7 to 12.7, allowed batting average from .232 to .150 and xFIP of 3.98 down to 2.51 at HOME! He is a -160 favorite tonight but has a tough matchup vs. the red hot PHILLIES who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings. This is a risk/reward GPP play but these Phillie shave to cool off soon!
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STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. KRIS BUBIC (21ST Bullpen) – I know this is a fantasy sports article but I’m crushing it betting White Sox, White Sox run line and parlaying them with other games. White Sox had a few low scoring games and slid back to 11th in the last 10 game power rankings but still rank 7th in run per game, 4th in team batting average, 6th in OBP+ISO and 5th in wRC+ across their last 14 games. Our model has this game at 7.0 to 3.7 so the White Sox are an easy stack coming in at 4580 for the top graded 5 man stack. You can get this stack cheap if you fade either Tim Anderson (5600) or Jose Abreu (5400). The 4580 includes both of them so it is do-able at that price point.
PIRATES VS. ANTHONY DESCLAFANI (12th Bullpen) – I know what you’re thinking… Holy shit Haze has lost his mind, he has the Pirates in a stack. Pirates ranks 21st in the last 10 game power rankings and they are a horrible 12-25 on the year. But this is a fun stack because you can fit two $10k+ pitchers with it. You can stack the 5 highest graded hitters for only 3380 per player. So let me show you some math. This 5 man stack will cost you 16,900 and then you can use around 20,000 for two stud pitchers and have around 13,100 left for the other 3 hitters. If you take a low end catcher for 2,100 that means you can pitch two 5,500 players to fill in the holes. That is a fun lineup because every likes picking studs from the top of the salary range with 2 stud pitchers. Then what if PIT happens to drop 5-7 runs?? So PIT has faced Desco 61 times and they are hitting .328 off him with a lower 20% strikeout rate. Desco in 21 innings has a 7.71 ERA this year with an xFIP of 5.99, a very low 6.0 K9 ratio (down from 9.0 last year) and allowing a 1.67 whip and .282 batting average. This should be like soft toss batting practice for the Pirates. I mean in his last 3 starts he has put up -7, 4.9 and -18 DK points. In those 3 starts he has combined for only 10.0 innings, 19 ERs and 19 strikeouts. OH SNAP! I just noticed his -18.1 Dk points was against this same PIT team, WOAH! He only last 2.0 innings and gave up 9 EARNED RUNS with 1 strikeout. Take a $1-$3 single entry and stack the PIT team. Josh Bell (3500) is 6 for 17 off Deco with a HR, Polanco (2900) is 6 for 19 with a HR.
SAN FRANCISCO VS. MAD BUM (25th Bullpen) – So once again I have different information as some sites are showing Mad Bum as the SP and some are showing Taylor Clarke. Mad Bum should be returning from the DL due to his back strain and facing his former team. 3 of his last 6 starts were negative DK points and his last two were -7 and -7.4 and he combined for 6.1 innings, 13 ERs and only 4 Ks. For his sake I hope that 3 week stint helps him turn things around. SFG rank 5th in our last 10 game power rankings mainly due to that massive run in Colo. I like the SFG stack even if Clarke is throwing. If it is Clarke he still has a 5.32 ERA and 5.56 xFIP and allowing a .265 batting average. The bullpen has an xFIP of 4.91 with a 1.57 whip and allowing a .266 average. STACK IS CHEAP coming in at only 3940 per player for the top 5 man stack. You can fit two stud pitchers in this stack and still have around 10k left for the 3 spots. I like to pivot down on the C position in the 2,000-2,500 range and then spend up at the other spots.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS. BRANDON BIELAK (24th Bullpen) – I typically don’t stack the Angels but if they are facing Bielak I like it! I have another place showing Urquidy as the SP. Either way stack comes in at 4260 and they are 14th in our last 10 game power rankings and 11th in runs per game over the last 14 days. Mike Trout (6000) is on fire putting up almost 17 DK PPG over the last week and 12.6 over the last 14 days. If it is Bielak he has put up -8 and -11 DK points in his last two starts and those combined for a TOTAL of 2.0 innings, 10 ERs, 4 BBs and 2 strikeouts. Gulp!
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CHEAP HITTERS UNDER 4000 ON DK TO FILL YOUR ROSTERS:
MICHAEL BRANTLEY (3500) – Getting hot putting up 10, 21, 16 and 25 DK poins in his last 3 starts.
GIO URSHELA (3600) – 14, 8, 14 and 14 in his last 4 starts.
JEFF MCNEIL (2500) – Almost min priced and put up 10, 9, 13 and 12 in 4 of his last 5.
LOURDES GUIRREL (3900) – He has been up and down but 4, 17, 19, 7 and 20 in his last 5 is pushing 5x value.
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SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
Today I am going to do something new and add some of the sports betting picks that I like on the MLB slate. Now you can parlay them, bet the money line or bet the run line that is your decision but here is what I am looking at for the day.
TOP TIER BETTING PICKS:
PADRES (+100) – Ranking 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings they send Chris Paddack to the mound who has 42.2 innings with a 3.37 xFIP. Oakland is a little rusty after the covid break they had and they send Mike Fiers to the mound who has an xFIP of 6.01 and allowing a .282 batting average. Padres as even money and they are “red hot” right now. They have 43 team Abs hitting .326 off him with a micro-low 14% strikeout rate. Oakland has the better bullpen but our model has this at Padres winning 6.3 to 3.4 of Oakland.
WHITE SOX (-230 / RL -160) – This is a game that you likely have to mix into a parlay. White Sox are smashing everyone right now and they roll out their ace pitcher in Lucas Giolito vs. the Royals and their 28th ranked last 10 game power ranking. Our model has this at 6.9 to 3.7. Gio has 120 team Abs vs. KC and only allowing a .167 batting average and a solid 33% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starters for KC with 10+ Abs are batting under .200 off Giolito. Lopez is 2 for 10, Mondesi is 1 for 17, O’Hearn is 2 for 13, Soler is 1 for 13 and Whit is 4 for 23.
DODGERS (-185 / RL ??) – Colorado has been cold with their 18-20 record and 6-14 across their last 20 games. They rank dead last in our last 10 game power rankings. On the road they have a wRC+ of 73.5 and vs. RHP a 78.0 so I’m not worried about them blowing up. Dodgers are 4th in our last 10 game power rankings, 3rd in runs scored per game, 3rd in OBP+ISO and 2nd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days. Dodgers also have the #1 bullpen compared to the 28th of the Rockies. Our model has this game 6.1 to 4.0. Dodgers at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 101.8 to 134.8 and vs. RHP they sit at 128.6 so they are solid all around. I’m not really worried about any LAD starter they put out but Tony Gonsolin isn’t too shabby with a 0.51 ERA, 0.79 whip and .153 batting average. However, advanced stats show his xFIP of 4.11 and his low BABIP of .214 is going to come up. Even if he gives up a few runs the bullpen will shut this game down before Colorado can run away with anything. LAD line is too low!
SAN FRANCISCO (-135) – Giants skyrocketed in the rankings after that Colorado outburst! They are 5th in our last 10 game power rankings and rank top 4 in our last 14 team stats. They are facing the Diamondbacks who rank 24th in our last 10 game power rankings and bottom 2 in our last 14 game team stats. Offensive advantage for SFG. Both bullpens are 25th and 26th so not great. Cahill has been decent with a 2.51 ERA but his xFIP indicates he is closer to a 4.50 pitcher. His low BABIP of .167 is going to cause that xFIP to rise. The HOME start vs. ARI (where he is tonight) he went 5.1 innings, only 1 ER and 8 strikeouts. 5 of the projected hitters for ARI are batting under .200 on the year. Giants first 5 projected hitters are batting .299, .277, .292, .295 and .341.
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SECOND TIER BETTING PICKS: These are more “lean” plays that I like.
PIRATES (+130) – For the record our model has CIN winning this game which is in line with Vegas. However, I disagree with it after doing some research. CIN is 27th in our L10 game power rankings and they are only 27th in last 14 runs per game and holding a high 25% strikeout rate. They face Williams who has allowed a 5.50 ERA but his BABIP of .340 indicates he has been “unlucky” and his ERA should be closer to 4.66. He has always been better at HOME (where is he is tonight) and so far his home ERA is 1.64 with a 3.83 xFIP vs. his road 7.33 RA and 5.05 xFIP. PIT ranks 21st in our L10 game power rankings and 17th in runs per game over the last 14 days so not great but slightly higher than CIN. CIN has a slightly better bullpen coming in at 12th vs. 20th of PIT. However, Desclafani has been torched recently with his last 3 starts combing for only 10.0 innings while allowing 18 ERs and 10 walks. He just faced PIT on 8/13 and went 2.0 innings and got blasted for 9 ERs in that span putting up -18.1 Dk points. 90% of the Vegas money is on CIN but I’m taking PIT +130 as this is more of a coin flip game in my opinion with a slight lean to PIT and getting plus money.
NATIONALS / BRAVES OVER 9.5 RUNS – Vegas has this game as ATL -260 which is incredibly high in my opinion. We have ATL winning 6.8 to 5.7 and putting up 12.5 total runs. Nationals at +230 isn’t a terrible bet but you have to parlay it with the over because Fedde is going to give up 4-5 ERs in this game so if the Nats win IT WILL GO OVER! Fedde can’t shut down ATL but I’m not laying -260 on them against a hot Nationals team. Both teams are in our “red hot” category and rank 2nd and 14th in our last 14 runs per game. Both teams are 5th and 7th in our team batting average last 14 days. I understand Max Fried (L) is a good pitcher and on the outside you see a 1.60 ERA and 1.00 whip allowing a .199 batting average. However, his xFIP is 3.55 indicated he is still a good pitcher but not a 1.60 ERA pitcher. So my question is how do the Nationals do vs. LHP? They have a wRC+ that jumps from 94.1 to 129.6 vs. LHP so that is good, they have also been better on the road this year going from 78.8 at home to 120.0 in wRC+. When facing LHP their team batting average jumps from .251 to .304 an their wOBA from .318 to .372 and the OBP+ISO stat also goes up 100 points. Fedde for the Nationals has given up 10 ER combined in his last 2 starts which combined for 11 innings with 5 strikeouts. GAME TOTAL OVER 9.5 RUNS and I also like a small parlay of NATIONALS +230 with the OVER 9.5.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

Hi hoogetraps, you're not shadowbanned, but 14 of your most recent 108 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).

Comments:

g7x5m6j in sportsbook on 06 Oct 20 (1pts):

NRFI is the stupidest bet. I don’t why so many here do it. It’s one of the most likely innings for a run to be scored. You have the best hitters for each team at the plate.

g7x1hyn in sportsbook on 06 Oct 20 (1pts):

Braves ML and Lakers ML for even money.

g7x1efp in sportsbook on 06 Oct 20 (1pts):

Odds are if they win they cover the run line. Less games than you think are decided by 1 run.

g7wg7hr in sportsbook on 06 Oct 20 (1pts):

The Braves were 2nd in the league in both batting average and runs scored. Yeah total ass

g7upi9n in politics on 06 Oct 20 (1pts):

I’m invisible nobody can see my posts. Lol.

g7ufigg in politics on 05 Oct 20 (1pts):

I hope for a speedy recovery

g7uckdd in politics on 05 Oct 20 (1pts):

Spoken like a true liberal.

g7u9gy9 in sportsbook on 05 Oct 20 (1pts):

I’m jealous of you all with legal sports gambling. Pain the ass to get bitcoin exchange. Buy btc, transfer to wallet, then transfer to book, etc. then worry about btc price. Shit is weak.

g7u5k7s in politics on 05 Oct 20 (1pts):

Vote! Trump Pence 2020.

g7tvz2u in politics on 05 Oct 20 (-204pts):

Vote Republican for the sake of our great nation!

g7emvjb in politics on 02 Oct 20 (0pts):

Thoughts and prayers for the President, First Lady, and all those effected by the virus.

g7ax6wl in politics on 01 Oct 20 (-65pts):

She’s great. Very smart woman and does very well with a difficult job. Easy on the eyes too. Shame how Dems treat her so nasty.

g72rq7l in politics on 29 Sep 20 (1pts):

This sub is moderated the exact same way cupcake.

g6zemtc in politics on 28 Sep 20 (1pts):

Can’t wait to see the look on those CNN peoples faces on election night when they realize Trump won again and their 4 years of orange man bad 24/7 fake news meant nothing.

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Allright. This is my third attempt to write it, hopefully the last. It will be a bit longer than your usual post so please stay with me. Also, I am going to spoil the results for the very first Inashiro vs. Seido battle. So if you have not read it yet, read it now! Now with that out of the picture, let us get right into it.
Starting in June 2009 the biggest and most important game for Seido high began its publication. And after 44 chapters, after almost a year of real time, was when it came to its conclusion. The longest game in the enitre DnA universe, by many, me included heralded as the turning point in the series. It was after this game that I finally understood that DnA is not just any old regular sports manga but something unique, something amazing. And by thinking about it, I came to understand why this match was even more amazing than I initially thought. So in order to make my thoughts clear, I will talk about different aspects of it and, at the end, will have convinced you about my thoughts.
The very first thing that was different about this game was its foreshadowing. Back when Seido fought against Inashiro in a training match, we learned that it was Inashiro who snatched the Koshien ticket the year before the present. Since a high school student can only appear a maximum of 5 times at Koshien, this is a huge deal. The winner of the last Summer qualifier led by the absolut monster of a pitcher, Narumiya Mei. So when we went deeper and depper into the tournament, it was, at least for me, no surprise that the final was a rematch between these two schools. Even after Inashiro sent Sakurazawa out of the Milky Way, I was still a bit sceptic about Inashiro´s real skill. But then, the day before the match, we heard Kataoka´s honest opinion and for the very first time his hearts desire. He wanted to win, he wanted to bring his beloved students to Koshien. But at the same time, he, the leader of one of the best teams in the entire district and, from what we already know, entire nation, was as pessimistic as one could be about their winning odds. It was a huge bomb shell that Kataoka dropped at that point so obviously, I was expecting an amazing game. Narumiya and his all Star Line up vs. Seido.
The amount of foreshadowing just for this one single game left me speechless. The only other time sonething like foreshadowing happened was when we were expecting a match against Ichidai, only to see them lose against Yakushi.
Anyways, when it comes to the game itself, writing about it in detail would be just to much. And it is not what I want. So I´ll just sum it up as good as possible.
When it comes to the match itself, it is something close to perfection and something you expect from any good match in any sports manga. Starting on top against the powerfull rival only to lose that advantage in the mid game, things are starting to get desperate but then, when all seems lost, everyone gives his all once again and the rival is beaten in an epic fashion. Throw in an injury here and an epic appearance of the protagonist and you have yourself a perfect, long and epic match. Except this time, this only sums up innings 1-8. The ninth and final inning is why this match became so great, so legendary, so incredible. Haikyuu, KnB, HnI, Slam Dunk they all have this trope in common. And while such a match is nice to read, it is also nothing special. So when the ninth inning came, when Seido not only failed to score but lost in this dramatic, spectacular fashion, I was speechless. Never, ever have I read such a turn around, especially not when the stakes were so high. Just because this match and its ending was so surprising and unpredictable is enough to consider this match as the greatest in the DnA universe. But this is just the tip of the iceberg.
So let us get into the interesting parts of it. The stakes. Take any sports manga. The main team loses at some point. It is inevitable. Once they lose, they grow as a result and manahe to overcome their difficulties. So when the time finally comes, they overcome the difficulties and win. Haikyuu, KnB, HnI, Slam Dunk, all have the same setting. Although they lose and therefore leave the tournament, nothing major happens. No one dies, no one retires, the team stays the same. DnA however took the most brutal and realistic aproach I could think of. After over 4 years of story telling, after all these years we spent with the third years, they lost. And therefore, retired. I bet that it was a huge shock for most, since that was the equivalent of throwing away fan favorites. However, what it showed was once again that this is not your typical sports manga. Because here, a loss has real, hard and sad consequences. This time our protagonists do not grow stronger as a team. This time the team breaks apart. They have to start from scratch. Something that left a deep impression on me. Seeing other teams lose their third years is one thing. You emphasize a bit with them but in the end, as long as the protagonist win, all is good. But now they lost. And while we are at consequences, the consequences for our protagonist is also something worth seeing. Normally, the loss in a sports manga is attributed to the protagonist being to weak in the deciding moment or because he is injured. In both cases, after the loss the protagonist grows stronger, gains new abilities and gets back in shape. DnA simply threw Sawamura in the abyss and waited untill he reached the absolut ground zero. And while our beloved protagonist suffered, Furuya grew strong, so strong that he became the ace while our protagonist almost lost his spot on the rooster. The consequences and character development is still amazing, but since I would be forced to leave the match I want to analyze, I will leave it at that.
The next thing I want to talk about are the underlying conflicts, the conflicts behind the scenes, that make this battle so special. Starting from the foreshadowing we have a very good reason as to why Seido simply must beat Inashiro. Revenge for last year, winning for the Koshien ticket, if those were all then this would be just another cliche match. However, those reasons are just the basic. From the very start, the even bigger battle is the battle of ideals. It is not anymore a question about the better team. This is a battle to see whose ideals are stronger. The pitcher relay vs. the absolut ace. The team of individualists vs. the team that is a unified, well functioning machine. Both coaches do everything in their power for their team. They both have absolut faith in their players and are not willing to sacrifice the team for a single individual. So even though Inashiro won in the end, seeing these two teams, these two trainers collide with each other was almost as great as the match itself. All of their preparation, all their hard work, their training, their time, all of it is reflected in the things their players do and accomplish.
The last thing, although it was not as important as the other parts, is the conflict between Miyuki and Mei. Narumiya, who wanted Miyuki in his all star team vs. Miyuki who wanted to beat the all start team. Once again, two different mentalities collide and make this fight a little bit more interesting.
So to sum all of this up, there are several reasons that make this match great and all of these reasons together make this possibly the greatest match in any sports manga. And with all that in mind, think about one thing. The next game after the imminent Semi Final will be against Inashiro. All of the above reasons are just foreshadowing and reasons as to why Seido absolutly has to beat Narumiya this year since this will be their last showdown. Over a decade of story telling and publication went into this manga already. And all of it led to this point, the very culmination, the very climax of this entire manga, the final fight against Inashiro. So let us pray that this time, Eijun will not crumble.
​
I finally wrote the things down that were in my mind. Great. I am deeply sorry for any spelling and grammar mistakes. Thank you for reading, have a nice day.

[Cover]
While attending a photography convention, Seddy witnesses a murder. She just wants to put it all behind her, but first someone breaks into her hotel room and then someone tries to kill her. Her new love interest and the local detective both seem very eager to help her and the chief of police keeps giving her strange looks. With no idea whom to trust, she realizes she may hold the one piece of evidence that could help solve the mystery.
[Chapter 1]
It took me a moment to process what Paul was saying. The timer signaled that I should turn off the water on the tap in the darkroom, but I couldn’t move. All I could do was stare at the picture of the woman he called Caitlin.
My mother. That’s why she had looked so familiar. It was my mother twenty-five years ago. I could see that now. She was only nineteen when she had me, naming me after the place where I had been conceived. Growing up, she never spoke much of my father, but Paul’s story fell right in line with the little I did know.
I opened and closed my mouth a few times. When it was clear I had no idea what to say, Paul gestured back to my SLR.
“When I saw that camera last night, I knew it was mine. I remember the day I had scratched my initials into the bottom. As soon as I left the restaurant, I called your mother. She was surprisingly easy to find.”
“With or without your police databases?”
Paul smiled. “Without. Social media is great for stalking people. Anyway, I told her I had run into you but you didn’t know who I was. We talked for a long time.”
“She never got married.” I glanced around. This was obviously the home of a bachelor. “Neither did you.”
He shook his head. “No, I didn’t. Like I said, I was in love with Caitlin. We talked for a long time. I promised her I would look out for you while you were here.”
“Is that why you offered to help me with the darkroom?”
He smiled. “I was always going to help you. I was trying to get my buddy at the high school to let us use the darkroom there. After the incident today, I decided my place would be safer.”
“So, now what?”
He got to his feet. “Now we go look at some negatives.”
I sighed as I followed him back to the darkroom. I had no idea how to even begin to digest what he had just told me. I decided to put all of my effort into processing the film. I would deal with Paul being my father — that was so weird to even think about — later.
I turned off the water in the sink and emptied the tank. Leaving it in the basin, I removed the top and pulled out the reel. I pulled away a small amount, just enough to clip it to the clothesline, then slowly rolled the rest off. When it was free, I found the cracked canister and clipped it to the bottom to help weigh it down.
Paul stood beside me with a penlight. “I know they’re not dry, but I’m dying to see.”
I nodded. “Me too.”
He held a sheet of paper behind the strip and shone his light at the image. I followed his light. I found the pictures of the mountains near the middle. Then people talking. I pointed to one of the frames.
“I think that’s it.”
“I think you’re right.” He switched off the light. “We have a couple of hours before this dries. How about some pizza and baseball? The Mets are playing the Diamondbacks.”
I raised my eyebrows. “You’re the reason my mom loves the Mets, aren’t you?”
​
​
​
While we waited for the pizza, I went into a guest room to call my mother. She more or less confirmed Paul’s story. He hadn’t told her about the incident at the steakhouse and I wasn't about to tell her about being pushed off the overlook, so I just let her think Paul and I had run into each other at a restaurant. It was close enough to the truth and I would give her all the details when I was home and she could see for herself that I was alright.
My mother kept asking me how I was handling the fact that I had found my father. I told her the truth — I was still in shock and had no idea what I was feeling. She seemed amused when I told her Paul and I were going to watch the game together and she said she would join us in spirit.
At the top and bottom of each inning, Paul would pop into the darkroom to check on the film. During the seventh inning stretch, it was finally dry. We switched off the television and got to work.
I cut the negatives into strips and loaded them into a sleeve Paul provided. Using the light box, we were able to confirm I indeed had a picture of the two men by the kitchen. There was only one image. The one before it was the older couple at the table beside me. The one after it was a chipmunk.
I placed the film in the carrier and moved it to the enlarger. Paul switched on the red light, darkening the room, then looked over my shoulder as we focused the image.
Two men stood by the kitchen. Paul pointed to the one on the right.
“That’s the victim.”
“Unfortunately, I didn’t get much of the other guy. I don’t know if this will help you at all.”
Paul squinted at the photo. “Hang on. What’s that?”
I looked where he was pointing. There was something on the man’s wrist. I enlarged the photo, re-centering and focusing it. When the image was clear, I gasped.
“Get the photo paper. I’d know that tattoo anywhere.”
​
​
​
“You should have contacted me sooner,” Dylan said as he sat across from me in the hotel lounge.
“I know. I just didn’t think it was a big deal.”
“Tell me everything.”
“We were hiking to the overlook to take pictures. I was standing on an embankment when this guy just took my camera and bowled me over. He destroyed my camera. I want to file a police report so I can put in a claim with my insurance company.”
Dylan nodded. “I’m reaching a dead end with the investigation. There’s just no evidence. I’m guessing someone thinks you have some sort of incriminating photograph. That’s why he was in your room and that’s why he took your camera. I don’t suppose you got a glimpse of the guy?”
I shook my head. “Not really. But, we did find a disposable camera. It might have fingerprints.”
“How about the other people on the hike with you? Did they see anyone?”
“Someone got it on camera, but it was just me falling. You couldn’t see the guy who pushed me.”
Dylan frowned. “That guy you had dinner with the other night. Was he with you?”
I nodded. “Logan? He was on the hike. I kind of lost him at that moment.”
Dylan took a deep breath and looked up from his phone. “I have to ask this. I was reading through your statements from the other day. Logan disappeared right before the shooting. Now you’re telling me he disappeared right before someone attacked you. He knows your room number and could have tossed the place. Is it possible he’s just pretending to be your friend to find out whether or not you can identify him?”
I took a shaky breath. “The thought crossed my mind. That’s why I really wanted to get those prints developed.”
Dylan shook his head. “I’m thinking you should just give me the roll. I bet the guys at the lab can process it. We’ll reimburse you and you can get the negatives back when we’re done with it.”
I smiled. “You don’t need to. I talked to my mother this afternoon. Do you know how I got my name? She and my father fell in love one night in Sedona. Apparently, he never left.”
I picked up my camera. “I told you this was his, right? He still has a darkroom. He helped me develop the film.”
I put the camera beside me and pulled out a folder, removing a photo.
“Turns out, I had a shot of the guys by the kitchen after all. See, there’s your dead guy.”
Dylan pointed to the other person in the picture.
“You can’t really see much of this guy, though.”
I pointed to the wrist. “Yeah, but I think that’s a tattoo. If you can identify that, you can find your killer.”
Dylan frowned. “Too bad you can't really see it.”
I smiled as I pulled out a second photograph. “Here. I blew it up for you.”
The resolution was perfect. I could easily discern the image. I pointed to the two characters. “I’m pretty sure that’s Japanese.”
Dylan glared at me as he clenched his fist, crumpling the photographs. When his spoke, his voice was low and harsh. “Where are the negatives?”
“My father took them. There’s just one thing I don’t understand.” I gestured to the photographs. “Why kill that guy?”
Dylan sighed. “We were in a poker game together. I lost a lot of money. I found out he was cheating and I tried to get the money back. He insisted he was innocent. Threatened to tell my boss I had a gambling problem.”
“But why’d you shoot him? You had to know it would be traced back to you.”
“He shot me. Missed. I took the gun, fired in self defense. Cleaned it and put it back at his place when we finished checking out his house. There was nothing linking me to him.”
“Except my photo. Is that why you tossed my room?”
“I was looking for your camera, your film, your SD card. Wherever that picture would be.”
“But, why’d you push me at the overlook?”
He shrugged. “I was trying to get the camera away from you. It wasn’t until after I took it that I realized it was the wrong one. Now, you’re going to have to take me to your father to get those negatives.”
“Oh, that won’t be necessary.”
Dylan looked up as Paul approached the table. “Chief. Seddy was just telling me she found a place to develop her pictures. We’re going to see if she has any helpful photographs.”
“Oh, she does. The negatives are already in my custody and will be used at your hearing. Dylan Wesler, you’re under arrest for the murder of Armando Bartz, tampering with evidence, breaking and entering at the Red Rock Resort, assault, destruction of property, and whatever else I can think of on the way to booking.”
Dylan looked at me. “I thought you said you gave the negatives to your father.”
Paul smiled. “Actually, Dylan, I have you to thank for introducing me to the daughter I never knew I had. Now, please don’t make a scene.”
Dylan got to his feet. “You can’t hold me. It's my word against hers.”
I held up my phone. “Paul, I’ve already emailed the conversation to you. I copied the crime lab like you told me to.”
Dylan shook his head. “None of this was supposed to happen. I just wanted my money back.”
Paul restrained Dylan's hands and took his gun before winking at me and leading Dylan out of the lounge. A moment later, Logan slid beside me, throwing an arm over my shoulder.
“How exactly do you make a mochatini anyway?”
​
​
​
Monday morning, I woke up disoriented again. I was in my hotel room, but something wasn’t quite right. There was someone in the bathroom.
I rolled over, planning on calling the front desk and letting them hear me scream that there was an intruder. Before I could lift the receiver, the person came into the room.
“I didn’t mean to wake you. Go back to sleep.”
I narrowed my eyes at Logan. “Why are you here?”
He shook his head. “I knew you had too much last night.”
I quickly checked under the covers. I was still fully dressed. Logan laughed.
“Don’t worry. Nothing happened. We got drunk, came up here and I passed out before I could go back to my room.”
Since I had the beginnings of a hangover, and all my clothes on, I tended to believe him. I checked the time. It was barely dawn. I looked back at Logan. “What time’s your flight?”
“Ten. I need to return the rental car, get through security, all that fun stuff.”
“Do you have time for breakfast?”
He crossed over to kiss me. “I can think of something else I’d rather do.”
By the time Logan left, he was running the risk of missing his flight. Once he was gone, I packed my own things and went in search of breakfast. Paul was waiting for me in the lobby.
“I was hoping to catch you before you left.”
I shrugged. Now that the investigation was over, I had no idea what I was supposed to say to the man. “Is everything all set with Dylan?”
Paul nodded. “His arraignment is later this morning. I think he’s going to try for temporary insanity, but he’s not denying the charges. I don’t think you have to worry about him coming after you again.”
I furrowed my brow. “I wasn’t. Not until you just said that.”
Paul shifted his weight uncomfortably. “I, um, called your mother again last night. I’ve got some vacation time saved up. I’m going to go home, visit my brother. I’d like to stop by and see you and your mom while I’m in town.”
I shrugged. “I don't live with her anymore.”
“No, but you live two towns away and have dinner with her and your grandparents every Sunday.”
I smiled. I guess he had been talking to my mother. “I would like that.”
“I would love to see your studio. I never had the guts to take up photography professionally. Oh. That reminds me.”
He handed me a manila envelope. “I took the liberty. Wait until you get on the plane.” I nodded and he took a step backwards. “Keep in touch, okay?”
“Thanks for looking out for me while I was here.”
Paul shook his head. “That wasn’t me. He’s a good catch.”
I could feel my face grow warm. Paul smirked, waved awkwardly, and headed out the main doors. I held my envelope close as I went to get my coffee. I was dying to see what was inside it, but I honored Paul’s request to wait for the flight.
After spending all weekend locked up without being used, my rental car smelled even worse than I remembered. I drove with the windows down the entire hour to the airport, but I was pretty sure the stench had made its way onto my clothes.
It took me a long time to get through the security line and even longer to purchase a sandwich at one of the take out restaurants. I made it to my gate just as my flight was boarding.
I was on one of those flights that did not have assigned seats, so I found a random window where there was plenty of room in the overhead bin to store my bags. Once I was buckled into my seat, I was able to finally open Paul’s envelope.
He had informed me the night before that the negatives would be held as evidence in Dylan’s trial, assuring me that I would get them back eventually, although it may take several months or even years. The envelope contained prints of the images from that strip, except the one I had shown Dylan, of course. As I flipped through them, I realized a number of them contained Logan.
Not the last picture in the pile. That contained a picture of a young woman looking at the Sedona mountains with a laughing smile.
“Is this seat taken?”
I turned to the aisle. “No, g—”
Logan slid into the seat beside me before I could finish my thought. I stared at him mouth agape.
“How — But — You—”
Logan smiled. “During the drive here, I realized you and I were heading to the same place. When I checked in, I discovered my flight was overbooked. They were more than happy to transfer me to this flight.”
“I can’t—That’s fantastic.”
“If I did everything right, I should be on your connecting flight, too.” Logan pointed to the picture in my lap. “Who’s that?”
I smiled as I passed him the stack. “That’s my mother. I can’t to introduce you to her.”
Thank you for reading One Night In Sedona. If you would like to receive a free copy of one of my books, please join my mailing list.
This story will remain online until October 31st.
Follow me at https://carrieswritingcorner.blogspot.com/

[Cover]
While attending a photography convention, Seddy witnesses a murder. She just wants to put it all behind her, but first someone breaks into her hotel room and then someone tries to kill her. Her new love interest and the local detective both seem very eager to help her and the chief of police keeps giving her strange looks. With no idea whom to trust, she realizes she may hold the one piece of evidence that could help solve the mystery.
[Chapter 1]
It took me a moment to process what Paul was saying. The timer signaled that I should turn off the water on the tap in the darkroom, but I couldn’t move. All I could do was stare at the picture of the woman he called Caitlin.
My mother. That’s why she had looked so familiar. It was my mother twenty-five years ago. I could see that now. She was only nineteen when she had me, naming me after the place where I had been conceived. Growing up, she never spoke much of my father, but Paul’s story fell right in line with the little I did know.
I opened and closed my mouth a few times. When it was clear I had no idea what to say, Paul gestured back to my SLR.
“When I saw that camera last night, I knew it was mine. I remember the day I had scratched my initials into the bottom. As soon as I left the restaurant, I called your mother. She was surprisingly easy to find.”
“With or without your police databases?”
Paul smiled. “Without. Social media is great for stalking people. Anyway, I told her I had run into you but you didn’t know who I was. We talked for a long time.”
“She never got married.” I glanced around. This was obviously the home of a bachelor. “Neither did you.”
He shook his head. “No, I didn’t. Like I said, I was in love with Caitlin. We talked for a long time. I promised her I would look out for you while you were here.”
“Is that why you offered to help me with the darkroom?”
He smiled. “I was always going to help you. I was trying to get my buddy at the high school to let us use the darkroom there. After the incident today, I decided my place would be safer.”
“So, now what?”
He got to his feet. “Now we go look at some negatives.”
I sighed as I followed him back to the darkroom. I had no idea how to even begin to digest what he had just told me. I decided to put all of my effort into processing the film. I would deal with Paul being my father — that was so weird to even think about — later.
I turned off the water in the sink and emptied the tank. Leaving it in the basin, I removed the top and pulled out the reel. I pulled away a small amount, just enough to clip it to the clothesline, then slowly rolled the rest off. When it was free, I found the cracked canister and clipped it to the bottom to help weigh it down.
Paul stood beside me with a penlight. “I know they’re not dry, but I’m dying to see.”
I nodded. “Me too.”
He held a sheet of paper behind the strip and shone his light at the image. I followed his light. I found the pictures of the mountains near the middle. Then people talking. I pointed to one of the frames.
“I think that’s it.”
“I think you’re right.” He switched off the light. “We have a couple of hours before this dries. How about some pizza and baseball? The Mets are playing the Diamondbacks.”
I raised my eyebrows. “You’re the reason my mom loves the Mets, aren’t you?”
​
​
​
While we waited for the pizza, I went into a guest room to call my mother. She more or less confirmed Paul’s story. He hadn’t told her about the incident at the steakhouse and I wasn't about to tell her about being pushed off the overlook, so I just let her think Paul and I had run into each other at a restaurant. It was close enough to the truth and I would give her all the details when I was home and she could see for herself that I was alright.
My mother kept asking me how I was handling the fact that I had found my father. I told her the truth — I was still in shock and had no idea what I was feeling. She seemed amused when I told her Paul and I were going to watch the game together and she said she would join us in spirit.
At the top and bottom of each inning, Paul would pop into the darkroom to check on the film. During the seventh inning stretch, it was finally dry. We switched off the television and got to work.
I cut the negatives into strips and loaded them into a sleeve Paul provided. Using the light box, we were able to confirm I indeed had a picture of the two men by the kitchen. There was only one image. The one before it was the older couple at the table beside me. The one after it was a chipmunk.
I placed the film in the carrier and moved it to the enlarger. Paul switched on the red light, darkening the room, then looked over my shoulder as we focused the image.
Two men stood by the kitchen. Paul pointed to the one on the right.
“That’s the victim.”
“Unfortunately, I didn’t get much of the other guy. I don’t know if this will help you at all.”
Paul squinted at the photo. “Hang on. What’s that?”
I looked where he was pointing. There was something on the man’s wrist. I enlarged the photo, re-centering and focusing it. When the image was clear, I gasped.
“Get the photo paper. I’d know that tattoo anywhere.”
​
​
​
“You should have contacted me sooner,” Dylan said as he sat across from me in the hotel lounge.
“I know. I just didn’t think it was a big deal.”
“Tell me everything.”
“We were hiking to the overlook to take pictures. I was standing on an embankment when this guy just took my camera and bowled me over. He destroyed my camera. I want to file a police report so I can put in a claim with my insurance company.”
Dylan nodded. “I’m reaching a dead end with the investigation. There’s just no evidence. I’m guessing someone thinks you have some sort of incriminating photograph. That’s why he was in your room and that’s why he took your camera. I don’t suppose you got a glimpse of the guy?”
I shook my head. “Not really. But, we did find a disposable camera. It might have fingerprints.”
“How about the other people on the hike with you? Did they see anyone?”
“Someone got it on camera, but it was just me falling. You couldn’t see the guy who pushed me.”
Dylan frowned. “That guy you had dinner with the other night. Was he with you?”
I nodded. “Logan? He was on the hike. I kind of lost him at that moment.”
Dylan took a deep breath and looked up from his phone. “I have to ask this. I was reading through your statements from the other day. Logan disappeared right before the shooting. Now you’re telling me he disappeared right before someone attacked you. He knows your room number and could have tossed the place. Is it possible he’s just pretending to be your friend to find out whether or not you can identify him?”
I took a shaky breath. “The thought crossed my mind. That’s why I really wanted to get those prints developed.”
Dylan shook his head. “I’m thinking you should just give me the roll. I bet the guys at the lab can process it. We’ll reimburse you and you can get the negatives back when we’re done with it.”
I smiled. “You don’t need to. I talked to my mother this afternoon. Do you know how I got my name? She and my father fell in love one night in Sedona. Apparently, he never left.”
I picked up my camera. “I told you this was his, right? He still has a darkroom. He helped me develop the film.”
I put the camera beside me and pulled out a folder, removing a photo.
“Turns out, I had a shot of the guys by the kitchen after all. See, there’s your dead guy.”
Dylan pointed to the other person in the picture.
“You can’t really see much of this guy, though.”
I pointed to the wrist. “Yeah, but I think that’s a tattoo. If you can identify that, you can find your killer.”
Dylan frowned. “Too bad you can't really see it.”
I smiled as I pulled out a second photograph. “Here. I blew it up for you.”
The resolution was perfect. I could easily discern the image. I pointed to the two characters. “I’m pretty sure that’s Japanese.”
Dylan glared at me as he clenched his fist, crumpling the photographs. When his spoke, his voice was low and harsh. “Where are the negatives?”
“My father took them. There’s just one thing I don’t understand.” I gestured to the photographs. “Why kill that guy?”
Dylan sighed. “We were in a poker game together. I lost a lot of money. I found out he was cheating and I tried to get the money back. He insisted he was innocent. Threatened to tell my boss I had a gambling problem.”
“But why’d you shoot him? You had to know it would be traced back to you.”
“He shot me. Missed. I took the gun, fired in self defense. Cleaned it and put it back at his place when we finished checking out his house. There was nothing linking me to him.”
“Except my photo. Is that why you tossed my room?”
“I was looking for your camera, your film, your SD card. Wherever that picture would be.”
“But, why’d you push me at the overlook?”
He shrugged. “I was trying to get the camera away from you. It wasn’t until after I took it that I realized it was the wrong one. Now, you’re going to have to take me to your father to get those negatives.”
“Oh, that won’t be necessary.”
Dylan looked up as Paul approached the table. “Chief. Seddy was just telling me she found a place to develop her pictures. We’re going to see if she has any helpful photographs.”
“Oh, she does. The negatives are already in my custody and will be used at your hearing. Dylan Wesler, you’re under arrest for the murder of Armando Bartz, tampering with evidence, breaking and entering at the Red Rock Resort, assault, destruction of property, and whatever else I can think of on the way to booking.”
Dylan looked at me. “I thought you said you gave the negatives to your father.”
Paul smiled. “Actually, Dylan, I have you to thank for introducing me to the daughter I never knew I had. Now, please don’t make a scene.”
Dylan got to his feet. “You can’t hold me. It's my word against hers.”
I held up my phone. “Paul, I’ve already emailed the conversation to you. I copied the crime lab like you told me to.”
Dylan shook his head. “None of this was supposed to happen. I just wanted my money back.”
Paul restrained Dylan's hands and took his gun before winking at me and leading Dylan out of the lounge. A moment later, Logan slid beside me, throwing an arm over my shoulder.
“How exactly do you make a mochatini anyway?”
​
​
​
Monday morning, I woke up disoriented again. I was in my hotel room, but something wasn’t quite right. There was someone in the bathroom.
I rolled over, planning on calling the front desk and letting them hear me scream that there was an intruder. Before I could lift the receiver, the person came into the room.
“I didn’t mean to wake you. Go back to sleep.”
I narrowed my eyes at Logan. “Why are you here?”
He shook his head. “I knew you had too much last night.”
I quickly checked under the covers. I was still fully dressed. Logan laughed.
“Don’t worry. Nothing happened. We got drunk, came up here and I passed out before I could go back to my room.”
Since I had the beginnings of a hangover, and all my clothes on, I tended to believe him. I checked the time. It was barely dawn. I looked back at Logan. “What time’s your flight?”
“Ten. I need to return the rental car, get through security, all that fun stuff.”
“Do you have time for breakfast?”
He crossed over to kiss me. “I can think of something else I’d rather do.”
By the time Logan left, he was running the risk of missing his flight. Once he was gone, I packed my own things and went in search of breakfast. Paul was waiting for me in the lobby.
“I was hoping to catch you before you left.”
I shrugged. Now that the investigation was over, I had no idea what I was supposed to say to the man. “Is everything all set with Dylan?”
Paul nodded. “His arraignment is later this morning. I think he’s going to try for temporary insanity, but he’s not denying the charges. I don’t think you have to worry about him coming after you again.”
I furrowed my brow. “I wasn’t. Not until you just said that.”
Paul shifted his weight uncomfortably. “I, um, called your mother again last night. I’ve got some vacation time saved up. I’m going to go home, visit my brother. I’d like to stop by and see you and your mom while I’m in town.”
I shrugged. “I don't live with her anymore.”
“No, but you live two towns away and have dinner with her and your grandparents every Sunday.”
I smiled. I guess he had been talking to my mother. “I would like that.”
“I would love to see your studio. I never had the guts to take up photography professionally. Oh. That reminds me.”
He handed me a manila envelope. “I took the liberty. Wait until you get on the plane.” I nodded and he took a step backwards. “Keep in touch, okay?”
“Thanks for looking out for me while I was here.”
Paul shook his head. “That wasn’t me. He’s a good catch.”
I could feel my face grow warm. Paul smirked, waved awkwardly, and headed out the main doors. I held my envelope close as I went to get my coffee. I was dying to see what was inside it, but I honored Paul’s request to wait for the flight.
After spending all weekend locked up without being used, my rental car smelled even worse than I remembered. I drove with the windows down the entire hour to the airport, but I was pretty sure the stench had made its way onto my clothes.
It took me a long time to get through the security line and even longer to purchase a sandwich at one of the take out restaurants. I made it to my gate just as my flight was boarding.
I was on one of those flights that did not have assigned seats, so I found a random window where there was plenty of room in the overhead bin to store my bags. Once I was buckled into my seat, I was able to finally open Paul’s envelope.
He had informed me the night before that the negatives would be held as evidence in Dylan’s trial, assuring me that I would get them back eventually, although it may take several months or even years. The envelope contained prints of the images from that strip, except the one I had shown Dylan, of course. As I flipped through them, I realized a number of them contained Logan.
Not the last picture in the pile. That contained a picture of a young woman looking at the Sedona mountains with a laughing smile.
“Is this seat taken?”
I turned to the aisle. “No, g—”
Logan slid into the seat beside me before I could finish my thought. I stared at him mouth agape.
“How — But — You—”
Logan smiled. “During the drive here, I realized you and I were heading to the same place. When I checked in, I discovered my flight was overbooked. They were more than happy to transfer me to this flight.”
“I can’t—That’s fantastic.”
“If I did everything right, I should be on your connecting flight, too.” Logan pointed to the picture in my lap. “Who’s that?”
I smiled as I passed him the stack. “That’s my mother. I can’t to introduce you to her.”
Thank you for reading One Night In Sedona. If you would like to receive a free copy of one of my books, please join my mailing list.
This story will remain online until October 31st.
Follow me at https://carrieswritingcorner.blogspot.com/

At the start of the 2020 baseball season, a common exclamation rang out on both sides of the Pacific.
"That can't be right."
"Are you sure that says Mariners and not Marines?" "I recognize the logo, but that roster sure as shit isn't Cincinnati!" "Do we even have a direct flight to Kansai International?!"
Due to a scheduling mishap caused by a rare software bug and/or a 14-year-old hacker from Finland, the MLB and NPB have effectively traded teams. The Yomiuri Giants and Hanshin Tigers have been placed in the NL West and AL Central, respectively; their similarly named cousins in San Francisco and Detroit join the Central League.
Betting websites have no idea what to do. MLB Network is okay with it because at least they now have early morning content for the Eastern Time Zone. The carbon offset market is flooded by 42 baseball teams striving to reduce their travel expenditures.
Let's see how these teams shape up relative to their new peers, eh?

Panic in Detroit?

The strength of this Tigers team is going to be pitching - Boyd, Norris, and Nova are a great 1-2-3 in NPB, and Joe Jimenez is already a top closer in Japan. The less said about the position players the better. Still, compared to the other NPB teams, they're a top-half team.

When the Lights Go Down in the City

The Giants are already rated top-4 in every category, with Posey, Longoria, Gausman, and Gott netting best-in-league honours. San Francisco is approaching this season with a surprising amount of excitement - at least they won't have to worry about the Dodgers in this league.

Viva Giants

Ohhhh boy. Only four players have green numbers or better - Rubby De La Rosa, Tomoyuki Sugano, Hayato Sakamoto, and Yoshihiro Maru...all of whom are free agents next season. Sugano's not even considered an ace in MLB; Maru's their only hope offensively and defensively.

The Colonel's Curse Works in Weird Ways

At least the Giants have a top-5 player. The Tigers are buried in the bottom-third at all positions. At least they have a DH to let Yoshio Itoi's bat loose? He's one of three players happy about this whole mess - the others are Justin Bour and Jerry Sands, about to embark on their revenge tour.

The Setup

In order to keep the San Francisco and Detroit teams compliant with NPB rules, I gave all members of the main roster temporary Japanese citizenship. They can only add four foreigners from their 40-man, to meet foreign player limits.
I didn't change minor league teams, so the ni-gun teams are staying in Japan and the full minor league system is intact for the ex-MLB squads. That's a long call-up if you're away from home.
Also, OOTP still can't get NPB rules quite right - there's no ties after 12 innings, and the Climax Series Final Stage is supposed to be best of 7 with the top seed getting a one-game advantage.
By luck of the draw, the NL West and AL Central will meet up this season to let the Giants and Tigers have some MLB action in Japan. I also went with the standard schedules - no coronavirus cancellations.

March

Have you ever been in San Francisco in March? Would you want to play baseball there? That's exactly what Detroit and the Frisco Giants did in their first ever NPB tilt at Oracle Park, where the wind is brisk and the mercury reads 45 degrees. The only thing colder were the bats - 0-for with RISP until the top of the 9th, when Jeimer Candelario clanked a triple off the right field wall, scoring 2. Jimenez picks up the save, and Detroit is unbeaten in NPB play! Boyd gets the win with 8 scoreless.
Meanwhile in MLB, Hanshin and Yomiuri took advantage of the lack of a foreign player limit to try and improve their roster by demoting youngsters, signing depth free agents, and calling up all their gaijin waku. Then their season got underway 6 days later, with Hanshin hosting Cleveland and Yomiuri hosting San Diego.
At Koshien, it wasn't Justin Bour or Jerry Sands who broke the game open, but 42-year-old Kosuke Fukudome with a 3-run jack to right in the 4th. Yusuke Ohyama hit one himself the next inning, and things were looking good for Hanshin...until Kyuji Fujikawa blew a gasket and gave up home runs to Jose Ramirez to get the Indians within one, and Roberto Perez to hand them the lead in the top of the 9th. 9-7 the final for the Tribe. Typical Hanshin.
Yomiuri didn't fare too much better, as Manny Machado cranked two solo shots, including the game-winner in the top of the 10th, to pace the Padres to a 3-2 extra-innings win at the Tokyo Dome. At least Maru got a two-run dinger of his own?
San Francisco has rebounded with 8 straight wins to tie Detroit for the CL lead at 8-2 as the calendar flips into April. Hanshin is 1-4 and Yomiuri is 2-3 over in MLB.

April

Things took a turn for the terrible for the Tigers in MLB. Hanshin went 7-19 for a putrid .269 win percentage; the lone bright spot was Yoshio Itoi plugging a five-hit game against the Yankees. Every starter has an ERA over 6, Bour is batting .141, and the team has resorted to dumpster diving to improve. Brian Dozier and Breyvic Valera both came over on waivers from the Padres. They are 12 games back of the AL Central after ONE MONTH.
The MLB Giants aren't faring much better with a 10-15 April, but most of that is a six-game losing streak they finished the month in. They added Hanley Ramirez on a minor league deal and Jonathan Lucroy off waivers from Boston. A highlight of the month was Gerardo Parra's return to Washington for a proper farewell; the Nats won 2 of 3, the last in extras, and each game by one run. Maybe Yomiuri CAN hang with this league!
The NPB Tigers have turned into pitching phenoms. Every starter's ERA sits at 2.75 or lower, and they rank 1st in the league for runs against, starters ERA, and FIP. They also league the league in HRs, as CJ Cron has racked up 10 to date. Detroit's seen two win streaks of five games or more in a 17-8 April. They're still 2 games back of...
The Giants of the NPB, both in name and results. In spite of a spate of injuries to Sandoval, Cueto, and Samardzija, San Francisco went 19-6 in April on the strength of their bats. Not sure how long Trevor Cahill is going to go without allowing an earned run, but he's at 22 IP already. The closest domestic competition to the Giants are the Hiroshima Toyo Carp and Yokohama DeNA BayStars, each 10 games back.

May

Hanshin went 7-22. Kosuke Fukudome still leads the team in HR and RBI. The starting pitching is still hot garbage. As a Hanshin fan, this is starting to hurt my soul.
On May 5, Yomiuri shipped Hirokazu Sawamura, one of their better relievers, to the Dodgers for a minor-league first baseman named Edwin Rios. Rios has batted .351 with 8 HR and 18 RBI since joining the Giants. Didn't exactly help, they still went 8-20 in May. More non-Japanese players are joining the roster too, like Cesar Puello (waiver from Boston), Jose Vinicio (minor league deal), Wilmer Font (waiver from Toronto), Clayton Richard (minor league deal), and Braden Shipley (trade from KC). Sugano's at least 4-3 with a 2.21 ERA.
Over in Detroit, Jeimer Candelario has turned it on and joins CJ Cron in double-digit HR territory, but a merely pedestrian 15-12 May isn't confidence inspiring.
San Francisco got Cueto and Anderson back, Kevin Gausman is 7-0 with a 0.95 ERA and won the Pitcher of the Month award, and the Giants have pulled 7 games ahead of the Tigers for the Central League pennant - they went 20-7 in May! The Japanese leagues haven't seen regular season dominance like this since the Invincible Seibu era.

June

Shintaro Fujinami's always been an enigma in NPB, but he's 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA in MLB; hope springs eternal in Nishinomiya. An 8-18 June is an improvement. I guess Logan Forsythe is an upgrade over Kento Itohara too, since he was claimed from the Phillies.
Yomiuri added another foreign hitter in Ildemaro Vargas; I mean, why not, Edwin Rios now has 15 home runs in 48 games. The other bats have gone frigid, though, and a 10-18 June shows it.
Casey Mize continued his absolute tear by throwing a no-hitter against the Chunichi Dragons on June 25; he's 9-3 with a 1.76 ERA after that start. With Michael Fulmer back from TJ surgery, Detroit's got a chance to gain ground on the Giants in spite of a 13-8 June.
Uh-oh - Johnny Cueto's UCL tore, he's done for the season. San Francisco's power is still in its lineup, with 3 guys hitting .290 or better (Posey, Flores, and Mauricio Dubon). A 14-7 June means they get to stay ahead of the Tigers by 8 games still,

July

NPB had both its All-Star Break, and one highlight of that was an American vs American showdown in the HR Derby, with Detroit's CJ Cron edging out Brandon Laird of the Chiba Lotte Marines 14-13 in front of his home crowd at Comerica Park (the game pre-empted morning shows across Japan!).
4-20. Not a weed joke, that was Hanshin's record in July. Fukudome cooled off in a big way, Fujinami returned to earth, Bour is still below the Mendoza line in spite of 18 HR, and Haruto Takahashi blew out his flexor tendon. Complete Mudville. The lone bright spot was their closer Suguru Iwazaki getting an All-Star nod.
An absolute shock at the July trade deadline - Tomoyuki Sugano was traded to the Dodgers for 2B Enrique Hernandez and SP Dustin May. Sugano's 4-9 record isn't impressive, but 3.45 ERA and 119 Ks in 128 IP is. And now he's joining a rotation of Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, and Alex Wood (lard tunderin' Jayzus) to try and deliver a World Series for Los Angeles. Without him pitching for Yomiuri...the team's gotten better? 12-13 in July!
Jonathan Schoop had been a standout batter in NPB all season, and earned the Player of the Month award in July for a .338 batting average, 8 HR, and 18 RBI. That said, Detroit just hasn't been able to gain ground on the Giants. Their starting pitchiing has fallen behind San Francisco's too. A 11-6 month is decent, at least. (forgot to take a screencap)
Wait - did the Even Year BS make it to Japan? How else do you explain rookie Logan Webb going 8-3 with a 2.02 ERA in his first full season in a major league? San Francisco went 11-5, and maintained their 8.5 game lead over Detroit.

August

101 losses, and it's not even September 2. Hanshin's putrid year abroad continued with a 9-18 month in the Kansai heat. More foreigners are joining the squad - Mike Tauchmann on waivers from the Yankees, and Carson Fulmer on waivers from the White Sox. And the Tigers finish the month by hearing Yoshio Itoi's season is done after breaking his elbow.
And back down to earth go the Yomiuri Giants, 6-22 in August without their stud, eliminated from the postseason and 48 games back of Los Angeles. Dustin May was pressed into service as soon as he was acquired, and he's 2-4 with a 6.28 ERA so far. Wilmer Font also had his season end via elbow surgery. Woof. Bright spot is that Hayato Sakamoto and Edwin Rios are both tearing the cover off the ball.
(Sidebar: Tomoyuki Sugano signed an extension with the Dodgers - 5y95M. He's 5-1 since heading Stateside).
The Tokyo 2020 Olympics took up most of the month, so fewer games were played.
Meanwhile in San Francisco, the Giants have clinched a playoff spot in spite of going 5-8 coming back from the Oympics break. Buster Posey's in the running for the batting title, but the rest of the bats need to keep going to give this squad a title.
Schoop now leads the team in HR and RBIs, and is 0.001 back in batting from Niko Goodrum for the team lead there too. 7-6 isn't the best August record, but they did gain ground! They're 11 up on Yokohama, so a playoff spot is all but assured. And Casey Mize's 12 wins are generating Sawamura buzz.

September

Finally, something resembling normalcy - the Yomiuri Giants visiting Koshien to play the Hanshin Tigers. No need for a trans-Pacific plane ride to cheer on your squad! The Kyojin won two of three, with the Tigers' one win coming in extras.
The Hanshin Tigers matched the 2003 Detroit Tigers (hey!) with a 43-119 record thanks to a 7-18 September. Truly, truly, abysmal. Now their long march has ended, and they can turn tail and return back home next season without issues and a lot of their chaff (when did they get Trevor Rosenthal or Fernando Abad?).
The Yomiuri Giants lost 107 games and their best pitcher. A 7-16 September certainly continued that trend. At least they found their new first baseman, as Edwin Rios' 36 home runs and 108 RBIs pace the team. Maru and Sakamoto also break 20 HRs.
Michael Fulmer earned Pitcher of the Month honours with a 3-1 September, 37 Ks in 33 1/3 IP, and a .165 oppAVG. That helped pace Detroit to a 17-8 September, and get them within 4 games of the Giants with 5 still to play (SF has two games in hand). Losing star SP Matt Manning to a torn labrum may dampen their postseason hopes, though.
San Francisco righted the ship with a 14-10 September, and the starting rotation looks as strong as ever. Question is, how do you pare these six guys down to three or four for a playoff series?
(sidebar: The Dodgers went 110-52 to win the NL West, and the Toronto Blue Jays took the second wild-card spot at 96-66!)

October & November

The Tigers went a perfect 5-0 to finish their season, but came up just short at 93-50, while the Giants finished 95-48 after going 4-3 in October. San Francisco becomes the first American team to win the Central League pennant, and Buster Posey got his CL batting title in the end with a .299 BA.
The Detroit Tigers hosted the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in the CL Climax Series First Stage. Courtesy of strong outings from Casey Mize and Matt Boyd, and the offense waking up all at once, the Tigers cruised to a sweep by scores of 8-1 and 7-3. Schoop and Candelario (series MVP) each had two dingers in Game 2. Anyone wanna bet if Alex Ramirez loses his job now?
This sets up an American-style CL Climax Series Final Stage, with San Francisco hosting Detroit. The Giants walked off winners in Game 1, but the Tigers' pitching put up back to back shutouts in Games 2 and 3, the latter of those a grueling 14-inning affair only broken open by Jordy Mercer's 2-run triple. San Francisco fought back to take Game 4 courtesy of Logan Webb pitching a one-hit shutout (9 Ks too!). In the winner-take-all Game 5, Tigers pinch hitter Christin Stewart hit a go-ahead double in the top of the 7th to shock the Bay City crowd. Detroit's bullpen slammed the door the rest of the way, and the Tigers had punched their ticket to the Japan Series. Buster Posey took home series MVP honours in a valiant losing effort.
Detroit's opponent in the Japan Series? Only the most successful NPB team of the 2010s - the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, who won another PL pennant and got past the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in 4. Jingoism was running at an all-time high to preserve the honour of the Japan Series by making sure it stayed in Japanese hands. The Hawks and Tigers traded wins in Games 1 and 2, with the winning team hitting 3 HRs in each. The series shifted from the heated PayPay Dome to Comerica Park in November (brrr), but the Detroit bats stayed hot to take Games 3 and 4, still hitting three HRs in each. Home runs by Akira Nakamura and Kenta Imamiya put Game 5 away early for the Hawks, bringing the series back to Fukuoka. Yuki Yanagita clobbered a three-run shot himself in the 1st of Game 6 to take SoftBank to an early lead, but it didn't last long, as the Tigers put up 5 runs in the 7th and 9th (CJ Cron with two dingers) to take the game 14-4 and the Japan Series in 6 games. Austin Romine earned JS MVP honours for the effort.
Detroit rejoiced - it didn't matter if it was on the other side of the world, the Tigers had won a championship for the first time in almost four decades.
(sidebar: The Blue Jays won 7-4 over Oakland at the O.Co in the Wild Card game, but bowed out in the ALDS vs Houston in 4 games. Also lol the 90-72 Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers in 5 in the NLDS, with MadBum getting two of the three wins. World Series was Braves over Indians in 7 games.)

Offseason

• After league officials apologized profusely to all teams involved, the teams mercifully returned back to their home leagues at the conclusion of the awards season.
  
• After playing in San Francisco and Detroit so often, it should come as no surprise some NPB players liked it in America. Three players from the Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Daichi Osera, Ryoma Nishikawa, and Ryuji Ichioka) and Yasuhiro Ogawa from the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, were all posted.
  
• Yomiuri's 1B Edwin Rios earned some NL Rookie of the Year votes, finishing second to Gavin Lux
  
• Mitsui Golden Glove winners for the teams in America included Kevin Gausman (P), Buster Posey (C), Jeimer Candelario (3B), and Billy Hamilton (CF).
  
• San Francisco closer Tony Watson narrowly took home Reliever of the Year for his 38-save season.
  
• Best Nine winners (equivalent to Silver Slugger) included Buster Posey (C) and Niko Goodrum (SS)
  
• San Francisco second baseman Mauricio Dubon took home CL Rookie of the Year over teammate Mike Yastrzemski.
  
• Ron Gardenhire won Manager of the Year for the Central League
  
• Kevin Gausman took home the CL Eiji Sawamura award with an 11-7 record, 1.40 ERA, 211 Ks in 212 2/3 IP, only 31 BB, and a .169 oppAVG.
  
• And Gausman and Posey finished 2nd and 3rd in CL MVP voting to Tokyo Yakult Swallows second baseman Tetsuto Yamada.
  

Epilogue

A darkened room in Seattle. A clandestine Telegram call. On one end, Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto. The other....a 14-year-old hacker in Finland
"So they made the playoffs? BOTH of them? I see. I think we need to visit our owners a bit more often, then..."
TO BE CONTINUED

I was twitching somethin' real fierce. My hands clammy against the wooden bat. Sweat soaked into the grooves. My tongue licked salt off my lips as I bounced nervously on the balls of my feet. It was the heat of summer. A cloudless, humid evening and we were in the last inning of a pick-up baseball game. Just me, the neighborhood boys, and Emma: all together on an overgrown field behind my house. Bases were worn towels and the end of the field was marked by the start of the woods.
I was up to bat with two outs and a runner on third. Our teams were tied, but that had little to do with my case of nerves. See, Davies was the pitcher and Davies hated to lose. Sometimes, he'd hit the batter on purpose. Make 'em flinch. He would say.
Well, I was poised like a wounded bird facing a hungry tom cat. Twitchy, nervous, ready to jump out of the way. Davies knew it too That smug smile said it all. He wound up the pitch and I went all cotton mouth, steeling myself to stay where I stood. He threw the ball. I closed my eyes. Swung the bat.
Thwack.
The bat shuddered in my hands as it struck the ball. I opened my eyes, ready to run, but then saw everyone staring back in shock. Oh, no. Had I hit it into the woods? The woods were bad news. Coyotes lived there. You could heart them howling at night. The woods were off limits. We'd lost four balls to it this summer and numerous pets. Heck, I'd helped Emma put up missing flyers earlier today for her lost cat. But they weren't looking at the woods. They were looking at my neighbor's backyard. I'd hit a wicked foul ball into Ms. Palmer's garden. Oh, boy…
Every neighborhood has the creepy old person who lives alone. We had Ms. Palmer instead. Willowy and kind, she tended to her garden and the flowers grew high above her fence. Award winning, she called them and it sure was true. She'd won at the state fair numerous times and mama said she sold her flowers to brides. She was nice enough when we passed by on the sidewalk, but she had a strict "no trespassing" rule. She didn't need "no kids tramplin' on her flowers". She kept her garden closed and gave us a harsh glare the one time our baseball had slapped the brick of her fence. Shaken her hedge clippers at us as well.
"Marcus!"
Davies voice shot across the field. He pointed to Palmer's garden. "Retrieve the ball. It's our last one."
I wanted to say no, but what if the ball had damaged some of her flowers? She'd know it was us and you could bet she'd be at mama's front door tomorrow morning demanding our heads for ruining her garden. No, it was best to sneak in and grab it now. Remove the evidence. Better than spending the rest of summer indoors grounded doing chores. Besides, how far could the ball have gone?
"Bet!" I shouted back to Davies. He blinked in surprise at my willingness, but I knew every one else would be too chicken to do it. Before I could think of any reasons not to retrieve our ball, I dropped the bat and headed over to Ms. Palmer's fence.
I reached the iron gate and paused, one hand resting on the cold metal. Sunflowers stood tall above me, their eyeless faces gazing blindly at the setting Sun. Suddenly, I felt unsure of heading in there. Now that I was close, I still couldn't see the ball and the walls of the garden were already draped it in shadows. But it was too late to turn back now. I took one final look at my friends, then lifted myself over and into the garden.
The harsh drone of buzzing insects and chirping crickets drowned out all other noise. A wheelbarrow of nasty smelling mulch sat to my left and the sunflowers stood to my right. Thin vines of vegetation crawled along the brickwork, forming a barrier between the garden and the outside world. I stepped forward, eyes scanning the dirt for a white ball. I passed a tin of water and food bowl and frowned. I didn't know Ms. Palmer owned a pet, but I supposed the old lady needed some company. My granny had three cats and a tank of fish in her home.
What if she owns a guard dog? The image of a big Rottweiler patrolling the garden sent a shiver down my spine. You gotta find that ball fast. I trudged forward, wiping my hands against my T-shirt. Out of the corner of my eye I saw a white form amongst a row of purple flowers. Success! I darted for it and pushed the flowers aside with one hand while the other grabbed the fuzzy white ball. A white cotton tail. The white fuzz fell apart in my hand as I saw the corpse it had been attached too. Flies coated its fur, forming a writhing black second skin. I stepped back in shock, tripping over my feet. I reached behind me, fingers flailing for some form of support. They hit rough wood and I managed to steady myself. I looked back and gasped out loud. My hand rested on a giant box shaped trellis covered in a thick bush of uneven leaves and translucent white fruit.
Poison Ivy.
My hand shot away as if burned. Leaves of three, let them be. My aunt Beatrice's rhyme sang in my head as I stood back and gaped at the monstrous bush growing along the trellis, overtaking the flowers below and choking the life out of them. Ms. Palmer was cultivating this? I looked around to see if she had any other surprises, but outside of the dead rabbit, the other flowers looked just as show worthy as my mama claimed.
Still…I needed to get the heck out of here. Not before you find that ball. I circled around the garden path and that's when I noticed the broken glass. Her house had a row of basement windows under the stairs and one of them had a ball shaped crack in the center. I edged closer and sure enough, in the fading light, there was the baseball. It lay against the grey cement floor like a star in the night. Oh, heck. Trespassing in someone's garden was one thing but actually entering her house? That was a whole 'nother level. Nerves pulsed across my skin, but man, I was ready to tackle it. The consequences of Palmer finding it in the morning outweighed my fears. I crouched next to the window, undid the lock, and pulled it up. The opening was just big enough for me to squeeze through. I turned on my stomach and slid backwards into the basement.
The first thing that hit me was the smell. Awful enough that I gagged right on the spot. I pulled up my shirt to cover my nose. Then, I noticed the collars. The wall was lined with them: all colors and sizes. Red ones. Blue ones. Spiked ones. A vomit of color against a cement wall. I walked over and saw a batch of silver tags attached. Some on a wooden counter. I read off the names.
Snowball.
Archie.
Rudy.
Buttons.
All animals that had gone missing in our neighborhood. Oh Jesus, she's killing pets. The mulch. I took several steps back and tripped over my own feet. I crashed into a stack of boxes. Splintered bones fell out of one. I nearly screamed.
The light to the stairs above clicked on. Oh no. Oh no. She's coming! I stood up and glanced around. Too late to climb out. I dashed beneath the stairs and cupped a hand over my mouth.
The door to the basement opened. Light shined down the steps like a floodlight. I wanted to cry. Thump. Thump. Thump. Palmer's feet came into view as she hurried down the stairs. I could make out her grey hair wrapped up in a tight bun as she inspected the fallen boxes, the bones…the baseball. When she saw it, she hissed.
"Filthy kids. I'll - oh." She broke off as she saw the open window. Her figure went stiff. I ducked as she spun around, surveying the room. "If you're still here. You'd better come out now." She said. She grabbed a pair of long hedge clippers from her tool table. What is she--Palmer stabbed through the row of boxes in front of her.
"Come out. I'll make you part of my garden." She said. "Perfect for my begonias." She stabbed another hiding spot. My mouth dried up. I wiped my palms against my pants. Get out. Get out now. But I couldn't move. Palmer swept the hedge clippers down in an arc. Metal scratched cement. She turned her back to me.
Now!
I ran. Dashed around the railing. Up the stairs.
"Don't you dare!" She called behind me. I banged through the door upstairs. Back door! Back door! I blindly stumbled forward. Shoes thumped against tile. I was in the kitchen. Door. There's the door! I fumbled with the lock. The door swung open and I leapt down the steps, turned to the gate.
And there she was. Blocking the way out. She had climbed out the basement window to cut me off. She was holding the hedge clippers in both hands. I ran. Further into the garden. Place to hide. I needed a new place to hide. But the flowers were too short. Too thin. Too obvious.
The poison ivy bush came into view. Tall, thick, dark. No time too think, I ran towards its outstretched leaves. They reached out to grab me and drag me into its protection. I crouched against the back wall of the trellis, a single leaf caressing my cheek as the other leaves lay against my arms, legs, and hands. Seconds passed. Palmer came into view. She hacked away at the flower beds across from me.
"Where are you?" She said, snipping several sunflowers in half. "Where are you?" I stayed in place, my legs ached from crouching. My face itched, but I didn't dare move to scratch it. Didn't dare reveal where I was. Ms. Palmer hacked at several more plants before hurriedly walking to another part of the garden.
I waited. I waited until the Sun sank low and the fireflies came out. 'Til it was too dark to see the sunflowers across from me.
And then I ran. Unforgivably fast. I leapt over the gate and fell hard against the grass. I pushed myself up and ran all the way home. Past my friends sitting on the porch. Past my mama in the kitchen. Up the stairs. To my room. I didn't come out for the rest of the night.
Didn't leave the house for another week after the rash came in full force. Didn't see anyone either.
Not until Ms. Palmer stopped by. She came with a bouquet of flowers. Said she had a surplus. Mama took them and hurried off to the kitchen for a vase. Ms. Palmer stood in the doorway eyeing me. I stared back. She pulled the baseball out of her pocket and smiled. Coldest smile I'd ever seen.
"We can both keep our secrets, trespasser." She whispered and I knew. Knew she'd cleaned up her secret. Knew if I ever said anything she would get me for breaking and entering. So I kept my mouth shut.
I kept it shut for ten years. Ms. Palmer ended up dying four months ago. People still rant and rave about her garden. It grows tall and beautiful in the summer. Such a fine, lively garden.
But I know.
That garden is where the dead things grow.

Following a 2018 season in which the Yankees won 100 games, expectations for the 2019 season were sky high. We didn't quite achieve our ultimate goal of a World Series championship, but it sure was a fun season, and boy did we take a strange trip to get there...
The team won 103 games, tied for the 7th most in their 117 year history, and most since the historic 1998 team that won 114. They broke their franchise record for home runs that lasted less than 1 year, and finished 1 shy of the MLB record, which the Twins captured in a thrilling, see-saw battle for dong supremacy. They won the division by 7 games over the Rays, and in a development that surprised absolutely no one, swept the 102-win Twins to reach the ALCS. Our exciting season ended with a disappointing loss to the 2019 AL Champion* Houston Astros, but it sure was a fun ride.

Best Games of the Year:

April 16th: James Paxton arrives on the scene and Mike Tauchman hits his first career homer as the Yankees blank the Red Sox 8-0
May 7th: Gio Urshela and DJ LeMahieu lead the Yankees to a late comeback win against the Mariners
May 17th: The Yankees complete a 3 run, 9th inning rally against the rays to win 4-3
June 17th: Masahiro Tanaka shuts out the Rays in the Yankees pitching performance of the year
June 29th/30th: The Yankees outslug the Red Sox 17-13 in a wild London game, the first MLB game ever played in Europe. They would come back from a 4-0 deficit to complete the sweep the next day. One might even say the Yankees play that weekend was “absolute box office”
July 23rd: In the undisputed game of the year for the Yankees, and probably the entire 2019 MLB regular season, the Yankees beat the Twins 14-12
September 1st: The Yankees complete a 4-0 comeback win with back-to-back (and a belly to belly) Gardy and Ford homers to beat the A’s 5-4

Best Plays of the Year:

April 16th: Gio Urshela throws out Mookie Betts while falling down.
July 23rd: Aaron Hicks takes a walk-off double away from Max Kepler in the aforementioned Game of the Year
August 7th: Mike Tauchman robs Pedro Severino of a home run in Baltimore
October 8th: Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu team up to retire Eddie Rosario and kill a rally in Game 3 of the ALDS
October 12th: Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu double off Alex Bregman in Game 1 of the ALCS

Key Additions

DJ LeMahieu:
Signed as a super-utility/5th infielder to a 2-year deal, The Machine didn’t even have a spot on the Opening Day starting lineup. Not only did he find his way into the line-up, he became out team MVP. DJ hit .327/.375/.518 with 26 Homers, 102 RBI (out of the leadoff spot, no less), and 6.0 WAR, finishing 4th in the AL MVP voting. He also cries hit what was one of the biggest home run in Yankees history (for about 20 minutes)
James Paxton:
Traded from the Seattle Mariners for Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, and Dom-Thompson Williams, the Big Maple quickly entrenched himself in the heart of Yankees fans when he threw 8 scoreless innings with 12 Ks against the Red Sox in his 4th start with the team. He had a bit of an inconsistent, yet solid, season overall, going 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA, 116 ERA+, and 11.1 K/P. He also shut down the Astros and Justin Verlander in a gusty win-or-go home ALCS game 5.
Adam Ottavino:
Otto made Yankees history upon signing, becoming the first player in Yankees history to wear “0” on the back of his jersey. While he struggled a bit with control (5.4 BB/9) He had a fantastic season out of the pen, posting a 1.90 ERA, 2.2 WAR, and 88 K in 66.1 IP.
Edwin Encarnacion:
Acquired near the trade deadline for Juan Then, Edwin and his parrot put up a nice couple months of production for us, mashing 13 homers while hitting .249/.325/.531 in 177 ABs.
Now these were the guys we added this season that were EXPECTED to produce for us. As for everyone else...

The Next Man Up

You can’t talk about the 2019 Yankees without bringing up the historic and unprecedented injuries the team faced. It began early, when it was announced Didi Gregorius needed Tommy John Surgery shortly after the 2018 ALDS. CC Sabathia as well would not be ready by opening day after recovering from heart surgery. These alone seemed manageable. Once Spring Training began, however, players started to drop like flies. Before the season even began, we lost Aaron Hicks, Dellin Betances, and Luis Severino to injuries. After opening day the injuries continued, Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar were both quickly added to the IL as well. Tulowitzki and Greg Bird were less surprising but both suffered season ending injuries before playing more than ten games. Gary Sanchez suffered a groin strain soon after as well. At this point, we were less than 20 games into the season and had already lost our #1 SP, our best RP, our starting CF, DH, 3B, and catcher, our starting SS and the guy we signed to replace him. This combined gave us a pretty mediocre start, we managed to fight our way back to 0.500 in a series against the Royals, but in the game we did, Aaron Judge suffered an Oblique Strain. Even our TV play by play guy missed significant time after vocal cord surgery.
At this point, the season seemed over to many, we entered a West Coast road trip expecting the worst. The first game played against the Angels in LA had a lineup that looked more like Brett Gardner doing a rehab assignment in AAA than an actual Yankees lineup. However, instead of keeling over and dying, or even merely treading water, the Yankees thrived, mainly due to contributions from many unlikely sources:
Gio Urshela:
Previously known as a glove-only player with a AAA bat, the Yankees acquired Urshela for cash considerations from Toronto at the end of 2018. Gio Urshela had a major breakout year, slashing .314/.355/.534 with 21 HR, 74 RBI, and 34 2B in 476 PA. The breakout came after Urshela made 2 small offseason adjustments to his swing by opening up his stance and shortening his swing path. He began crushing the ball during spring training, and had people around the team raving about him. At the end of August, Urshela was batting .331, neck and neck with teammate DJ LeMahieu for the AL batting title, before missing a couple weeks with an injury and slumping after his return. His spectacular defense was also a breath of fresh air after a year of Miguel Andujar.
Mike Tauchman:
The Yankees acquired Tauchman in the final days of Spring Training in a trade with the Rockies. Tauchman had been underwhelming in his small amount of time with the Rockies, but after a brief trip to the minors came up and dominated the league before joining the IL himself. Tauchman put up a 128 OPS+, as well as 3.6 rWAR and 16 DRS in only 87 games. The “Sock Man” was a very pleasant surprise this year, and looks to continue to improve on what he showed next year.
Cameron Maybin:
Starting the season in the Cleveland Indians system, the Yankees acquired him on April 25th following injuries to Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier for about the price of a Toyota Corolla. Maybin also produced in his short tenure with the Yankees, slashing .285/.364/.494 with 11 homers, 9 steals, and 1.5 WAR in a little less than half of a season’s worth of ABs. Unlike Urshela and Tauchman, Maybin is a free agent this offseason, so hopefully for this he can jettison the success he had this past year into a nice payday.
Mike Ford:
Ford was called up for the first time this season following an injury to Greg Bird (shockedpikachu.jpg) and while he rode the Scranton Shuttle for most of the year, he produced in his time in the Bronx, hitting .259/.350/.559 with 12 homers (including the aforementioned walkoff) in 143 AB, while also winning the award of “THICCest First Baseman in Major League Baseball” (sorry Ji-Man Choi)

/nyyankees Best Posts, Memes, and Moments

Aaron Hicks Shooting Stars: Part 2. Another gem from the master u/MaybeNetwork. Seriously. Watch it. The whole thing.
Aaron Judge homers in Oakland, with sound and visuals that definitely were NOT edited in.
Savages in the Box:
One of the greatest moments of the season, and something that became a rallying cry for the team and fans alike.
How many games back are the Red Sox?
Gleyber vs Gary Thorne Gary Thorne was not happy with the Orioles pitching to Gleyber Torres this season...
CC Sabathia’s 3000th Strikeout
Joe Harvey’s Drunken Dad Interview. Meredith Marakovitz interviewed the father of Joe Harvey, who was making his MLB debut at the time, and let’s just say he had himself a great time that day.

Toast:

Did you ever think that a team with this many injuries would ever win 103 games? A lot of us certainly didn’t. Very much a reason the Yankees success this year was their resilience and determination in the face of adversity. If there was a team this year that you would expect to have this kind of success, it certainly wouldn’t be the team that lost this many key contributors to the IL. Didi, Severino, Hicks, Judge, Andujar, Stanton, the list goes on.
One thing that cannot be lost among Yankees fans is just how fun this season was. Rallies, walkoffs, clutch hitting, clutch defense, this team had it all. Two walkoff homers were hit this year, with countless other walkoff and extra inning hits. It really was a treat to watch this team never say die, especially in the late innings when out lockdown bullpen got to do its job. Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, and the rest of the gang really made it seem like the game was over after 6 innings countless times this year. Dellin Betances was sorely missed out of that bullpen, and we wish him well over in Queens next season. I personally wish we added to the bullpen this year, since you can never have too many arms, but I feel pretty good about where we currently stand.
Down on the farm, we’ve also got some talent that we expect to contribute soon, if not this year. Scranton and Trenton should have some pretty good talent this year getting ready to debut in the Bronx. Top 100 guys include Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, and Jasson Dominguez. Even some of the fringe guys like Luis Gil and Luis Medina have promising futures. Ready for this season, you bet we are. One can only imagine what 2020 has in store for this team. In conclusion, with the addition of Gerrit Cole, this team only got better this offseason. December off-season moves aside, this team is sure to be healthier and less injury-prone than last year. So let’s raise a glass and all look forward to an awesome 2020 season!