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FIRE and Kids – The cost of raising children in Australia
This post has been inspired by this recent podcast featuring three of the biggest names in the Aussie FIRE blogging community, and the follow on discussions in the Aussie Firebug Facebook group about how much it costs to raise kids in Australia. As all three acknowledge they don’t have kids so it’s not something they really have any experience with. As someone who has two young kids I thought it would be useful to write about it from my perspective. Obviously my situation isn’t the same as everyone else’s, there are plenty of people who would be horrified with how much we’ve spent, and others who would wonder how we manage to spend so little. Everyone’s situation is different, so what works for my family wouldn’t necessarily work or others. My oldest child has only just started school this year so I can’t really speak from experience beyond the 0-5yo age range, but I’ll talk through some of the typical costs, what we have and haven’t spent money on so far, and what we’re anticipating in the future. The costs people actually talk about The first two things that almost always come up when people start talking about the cost of babies are prams and carseats. Yes, you can spend a lot of money on these things if you want to, prams in particular. From a quick look at Baby Bunting the most expensive pram there is nearly 3 thousand dollars, and I’m betting that with a few accessories you can easily get over that mark. No, you do not need to spend that much on a pram. Yes you can probably pick one up on the cheap from Kmart or Target etc for well under a hundred bucks, but it’s probably not going to be as sturdy or hold much of the gear you take with you. Happily a pram is also the sort of thing where you can pretty easily and safely pick one up secondhand or get a hand me down from someone else. We bought a Babyzen Yoyo, which is basically a small sized pram although it still has enough storage room for us. It folds up so that you can take it on a plane as carry on luggage, is quite light, extremely maneuverable and very sturdy. I’ve taken it running plenty of times, it’s even got a Parkrun PB of 22:06! This thing is absolutely gold. Unfortunately it’s priced as though it’s made of it as well. There wasn’t an option to get one second hand because it had only just been released so we had to pay full whack. I think we spent over a thousand dollars on it including all the accessories and the lie flat and sit up seats etc. It was worth every cent. It’s been going for 5 years and 2 kids and is still in great shape, we’ve never had a problem with it at all. My wife tells me it is one of the best things I have ever bought her, although we both use it obviously. And at the end of the day a one off cost of $1,000 for us as a family is going to have basically zero impact on when we hit FIRE. Plugging the numbers into a compound interest calculator and using 7% annual return over 30 years I miss out on $8,000, which is about a month worth of returns on my target portfolio. I can live with delaying retirement one month for about 5 cumulative years of having a really good pram that works great for us. Similarly you can spend a fair chunk of money on car seats. This is one of those things that I wouldn’t want to get second hand because you can’t see if they’ve been broken or not and safety is a huge priority for us and presumably everyone else. Happily car seats don’t tend to cost that much, you can pick one up for a couple hundred bucks or less pretty easily. If you do that it tends to be one for a much shorter age range, say 0-2yrs whereas I think you can get ones which will take your kid from 0-8 but they cost a lot more. In any case per kid you’re probably looking at a thousand bucks total, and this could easily be a lot less. Again it’s not going to make any appreciable different to us reaching FIRE. So as easy as it is to point at this sort of stuff as being ridiculously expensive and over priced etc, it’s really not going to make much of a difference to most people. Sure you don’t want to spend any more money than you have to, but you also want to make sure you’re getting something that works for you. The other one off costs There are also a bunch of one off costs for babies and young kids like cots, beds, mattresses, baby carriers etc. From what I’ve been told you want to buy a baby mattress new, but that’s only about a hundred bucks at Target, potentially cheaper elsewhere. We have an Ikea cot which cost about the same, you could easily get one second hand or likely for free just by asking around your friends who will probably be delighted to get it out of their house. Some people do co-sleeping in which case you don’t need the cot and mattress although you may like to kid yourself that your baby will actually sleep in their own bed, maybe even through the night. It’s nice to pretend sometimes! As kids get older you’ll need a proper bed for them, again you can probably pick this up second hand pretty cheap and a mattress can be easily had for a couple hundred bucks. So none of these things are really going to have much of an impact so long as you’re a decent saver already. The big costs you see When you don’t have kids it can be great to live in a studio flat or one bedroom apartment in the inner city close to all the bars and restaurants and all the rest of it. You can stay in your local area and have plenty to keep you entertained, there is probably a supermarket nearby and plenty of public transport so you may not need a car either. Once you have kids, it’s likely going to be a different story as your priorities change. It may be that you’re happy renting with kids, but lots of people tend to prioritise stability and security when they have kids and that means owning your own home in most cases. I’m not saying everyone will want this, but a lot of people will. So now that you have kids you almost certainly want a second bedroom and if you’re planning on having more kids maybe a third or fourth etc. Obviously kids can share bedrooms for a while at least but sooner or later they will probably want their own space, as will you. You’ll also be wanting parks with playgrounds nearby and somewhere you can easily take your kids for a walk or kick a football around, ideally in a good school district which can add a couple hundred thousand dollars to the cost all by itself if you’re in Sydney or Melbourne. And if you want to live somewhere cheaper but send the kids to a good private school, well that can cost anywhere from the low thousands to multiple tens of thousands per year. Similarly if you didn’t have a car before, you will very likely want one now. I’ve mentioned before that we drive a base model Corolla which works just fine for us so far, but you’re still probably looking at $20k plus if you buy one new, mid teens if you want one used. If you want an SUV or a luxury model car, be prepared to fork out a lot more. In the same vein if you were previously going on lots of holidays and plan to keep doing so, well you now have at least one more plane ticket to buy, might need a bigger hotel room etc. As I talked about in this post about big ticket items, that all comes at a real cost. We bought land and built a house, so I can say that we spent roughly $100,000 more on that than we would have otherwise. The ongoing costs There are also a bunch of ongoing costs for kids as well. They need to be fed, they need clothes and shoes, they need medicine, and a bunch of other stuff that costs money. I wrote here about a bunch of things that we do to keep costs down, but the reality is that you still have to fork over a decent chunk of change. On top of all that contrary to what you might have been told public school is not free, there are a bunch of things that you have to chip in for here as well. We’re not at the stage that we’re forking out a fortune in extra utility bills etc but we certainly use the washing machine a lot more than we would if we didn’t have kids, there are extra lights and tvs etc on so there are extra costs there as well. There are also a bunch of extra items that you don’t really need to spend, but probably will. For us this includes stuff like swimming lessons, some sports like AusKick (AFL) and Junior Blasters (cricket), occasionally taking them to a theme park or zoo etc. They also get birthday and Christmas presents, and if they get invited to other kids parties they take a store bought gift with them. The above is about what I think our 5yo costs us at the moment based on our spending, our 2yo is probably about two thirds of that due mostly to her not eating as much and not getting swimming lessons yet, as well as not being in school or doing sports. I’ve left the holiday line blank because this is hugely variable. Last year we did a trip to the UK and it probably cost us about $3,000 extra between the two of them, next time it will be another couple thousand dollars more because the youngest one will need her own seat rather being on someone’s lap for the flights. So our spending for our eldest is about two thirds of the costs quoted in this article for a 6yo girl, I would assume that apart from a boy maybe eating a bit more the costs should be fairly similar. The main difference compared to our costs seem to be education and transport. Also, it was somewhat shocking to me just how expensive swimming lessons are! This is actually at our local council aquatic centre and is the cheapest in town. We do get to use the pool whenever we want, but that only tends to be once or twice a week at most. At least the lessons will hopefully only be for a few years for each child, although after that we may be forking out for something else instead. The hidden cost of kids The biggest cost is often actually one that doesn’t show up as an expense, the opportunity cost of one parent giving up paid employment entirely for a while or doing part time hours (I’ve used the phrase giving up paid employment here because looking after kids and a house is definitely work!). If we say that you’re giving up a full time paid job that’s at minimum wage of roughly $20 an hour for 40 hours a week, 48 weeks a year, then that’s $38,400 a year ($33,605 after tax and medicare levy) that the family is giving up for however long this goes on for. If you’d otherwise be earning more than that, then the opportunity cost each year is even higher. On top of that there is the hit to your career and future earnings, because those are definitely going to be impacted as well. If you’ve got two kids that are separated by two or three years and you as a family want a parent at home until they go to school, well that’s 7 or 8 years of missing out on that money which works out as around $250k based on a full time minimum wage job. I’m pretty hopeful that my wife would be earning more than minimum wage as well so for us it’s even more than that. On the plus side, she gets to spend more time with the kids although that probably feels like a mixed blessing some of the time! Alternatively if both parents want to keep working then there will likely be childcare costs for the first 4 or 5 years and then before and after school care, as well as missing out on spending time with their kids. Because we haven’t gone down this route I don’t know exactly how much it costs, I do hear plenty of stories about it being $100 a day minimum around where I live and it’s a lot more in capital cities. There are subsidies available for this, but you can pretty easily be spending tens of thousands each year on childcare while they’re young and then once they’re old enough before and after school care. You may be lucky enough to have grandparents or other family nearby that are happy to help out with this if they live nearby, but that won’t apply to everyone and it’s unlikely to reduce the cost entirely. The costs that are yet to come At the moment our kids are still young and fairly inexpensive. Between the two of them they tend to eat roughly what a grown adult eats, but from what I’ve been told that will change fairly dramatically as they get older. They’ll need new clothes more frequently, more shoes, potentially play more sports, go on more school excursions, you get the idea. Education could be another factor. There is a public high school that will be built in the next few years quite close by, and assuming that it’s decent our kids will likely be going there. But if it’s not, then we’ll have to look into private schools which can cost anywhere from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands. There will be extra curricular stuff as well. Given my wife and I are both horrible at music it seems unlikely that our kids will be doing extra lessons there, but there are plenty of other areas like sport or extra educational activities that we’d be considering. I know a few parents who have kids who are in elite sports programs (as in regional or state teams) and the costs here can very quickly add up, likewise if extra education is needed or wanted then that’ll be an extra expense. Government and other assistance I know that depending on your circumstances that there can be government assistance in the form of Family Tax Benefit, childcare subsidy and possibly other programs as well. We don’t get any of these which is fine, we don’t need them and they are presumably meant to be for those who do. If you’re not sure if you should be getting any of these then Centrelink does have this payment finder. We did get the one day a week Kinder program for 3yos and 3 days a week Kinder program for 4yos, although these both also came with costs of roughly $1,500 a year so it actually cost us money, again this is fine, just a reminder that it isn’t actually free. Depending on your employer you may also be able to get parental leave for a while, and there is a minimum payment which they have to make so long as you’ve met some requirements. Some employers may also have some continuing support with subsidised childcare and the like. None of this was applicable to our situation but at least some of it will likely be available for others. So what’s the bottom line? For us the biggest actual one off cost so far has been the bigger house and land that we purchased because we wanted our kids to be able to have plenty of space inside and outside the house. That cost about a hundred thousand dollars more than we would have paid if it were just the two of us. All the other stuff like a pram, car seats, cots/beds, mattresses and all the rest of it have been maybe $5,000 total, which is tiny by comparison. The opportunity cost has been bigger than this though. When we had our first child when we were in Hong Kong my wife wasn’t working much anyway as there just weren’t that many jobs she could do and my wage easily supported both of us so she was doing some very casual part time work and so not doing that work afterwards didn’t impact us much. In Australia though she probably would have been earning at least $40,000 a year after tax, so we’ve foregone almost $200,000 on an after tax basis there. Which as I’m sure you can imagine has a pretty big impact on when we will hit FIRE, particularly given we’ve got another few years or her not being in paid employment at all and then likely only working part time after that. So I would guess we’ll be looking at forgone earnings of at least $500,000 by the time all is said and done, and it could quite easily be a lot more. The actual ongoing costs of the kids so far haven’t been too bad. Between the two of them it’s about $8,000 a year at the moment, although we would anticipate that this will go up a fair bit over time as they start eating more and getting into more extra curricular activities. I get that this is spending that isn’t a necessity, but do I really want my kids to miss out on a bunch of fun stuff so that I can retire a year or two earlier? No, no I do not. So far the total costs look something like this. You can see that by far the biggest cost has been the earnings that we’ve missed out on because my wife has been at home looking after the kids and doing the household stuff (yes I do some of it because I think it’s important that we share the jobs and to role model stuff for the kids, but the reality is that she is at home a lot more than I am and does more of it). Buying a bigger house and land is next, and the actual costs of feeding and clothing and all the other one off stuff for the kids is a tiny proportion of the actual cost. All up I’m hopeful that we can keep the ongoing costs to somewhere between $125k and $150k per child from birth through to age 18, although if private school is necessary then that will push up the costs a fair bit. This is less than half of what this article suggests, so although it sounds like a lot of money it’s actually fairly frugal by comparison. To put it in perspective, it’s basically spending about 7 or 8 grand a year on each child. There are plenty of people out there who spend more than that on food alone, let alone the rest of their living expenses. As I said earlier travel costs are on top of this, and this can increase the costs quite a lot! Travel is a huge part of the reason we’re pursuing HIFIRE, and we want to be taking the kids on plenty of holidays while they’re growing up. That’s obviously discretionary spending to a large extent, but we do have close family living overseas who we want to see every couple of years or so, and it’s not fair to expect them to always be the ones travelling. I would guess that we’ll be looking at about $50k per kid in travel costs by the time they turn 18. That’s about 3 grand a year, which doesn’t sound wrong based on the cost of international travel. It may be less than that which would be great, but could also be a fair bit more. So all up for the two kids we’re looking at about a million dollars from birth to age 18. About half of that is the foregone wages from not working, which is by far the biggest impact. The actual cost of the kids is about another 30%, then travel is 10%, another 10% for the bigger house and land. And then right at the end is less than 1% for the one off stuff like prams and baby seats and cots etc. How could we spend less? Obviously there are other things we could be doing instead to keep the cost down. The biggest expense is the wages that aren’t being earned because my wife is looking after the kids and the household stuff. We could have chosen to have her work and instead pay for childcare and after school care etc. If we did though then she wouldn’t get to spend as much time with the kids (which she tells would be welcome some of the time!) and there would be a lot more house work and shopping that would need to be done after work or on weekends for both of us, we’d potentially eat out more often as it’d be more of a hassle cooking meals each night, as well as a bunch of other tradeoffs. So having her stay at home was our preferred method, and thankfully we’re in the financial position where we can afford to do it that way. Other people make different choices, or they’re unfortunately not in a position to make a choice, they need both partners working or if they’re a single parent have to do it this way. We could have also gone with a smaller house and less of a backyard. I shared a bedroom with my brother for part of our childhood and we both managed fine. It’s not ideal, but it’s certainly doable, and we could have saved a lot of money by having a smaller house. Again we chose not to because we wanted a bigger house and a decent sized backyard for them to be able to run around in and we can afford it. We don’t have to travel, although it’d be a bit rough expecting family to travel overseas to see us every year or two and then not reciprocating. Still, that would save a fair amount of money. It’s pretty hard to say how things will work out with the actual costs of raising the kids. I know roughly what we’ve spent so far, but it’s pretty difficult to know what we’ll be spending in future as they get older. They’re likely to be eating a fair bit more food, s they grow they’ll need new clothes and shoes, they’ll presumably be playing sport and doing other extra curricular stuff which will all cost money. $150k per kid from 0 to 18 seems like it’s a lot less than what it costs most people, but then we already live a fair bit more cheaply than most others so maybe it’s about right. At the end of the day we’re happy with the choices that we’ve made so far, but there has certainly been some room to have spent less money than what we have, or to have had more money coming in through both of us being in paid employment. Obviously it has an impact on when we will hit our FIRE number, but I’d rather take a little bit longer to get there than to make different tradeoffs along the way. Have you got kids or are thinking about having them? How do you think it will impact on your FIRE journey? Original post with pretty charts, pictures, tables etc is here.
[Cryoverse] The Last Precursor 013: Repairing the Bloodbearer
The Last Precursor is a brand new HFY-exclusive web-serial which focuses on the exploits of the last living human amidst a galaxy of unknown aliens. With his species all but extinct and only known as the ancient Precursors, how will Rodriguez survive in this hostile universe? Make sure to read the earlier chapters first if you missed them! Join the TLP Discord! Previous Part Part 001 ....................................... José Rodriguez, the last living Terran, slowly opens his eyes. A plain metal ceiling, covered in plexi-steel tiles, sits some twenty feet above his face. The Admiral lays motionless on his back, his arms and legs held limp in a straight pose. A strange sensation swallows him, akin to floating on a gently undulating ocean while riding atop a piece of plywood. "Hello, Admiral," Umi beeps. "You slept for seventeen hours and fourteen minutes. How are you feeling?" The Terran doesn't reply. He continues to stare at the ceiling while countless thoughts and emotions mix with the strange, lucid dreams he left behind only a minute before. They're all dead. José closes his eyes. Everyone I have ever known. My friends. My comrades. My superiors. My enemies. Even the people I took for granted, those who merely 'existed' and caused me no grief. Every last one of them is long gone. I can't ever see them again. Slowly, the Admiral turns his head to the left. The eleven-foot-long cot from his personal quarters, its bedding material as hard as a rock after 100,000,000 years of calcification, provides no comfort for the Admiral. His 'pillow' proves little more than a flat, half-inch-tall piece of rock. Were it not for his durable body, merely laying on the bed would probably give him all manner of aches and pains. As the Admiral looks around the room, a mixture of nostalgia and sadness glides throughout his veins. A second cot on the opposite side of the room, the bed his former bunkmate once used, Private Azaram, sits empty and covered in a thick layer of dust. A pair of lockers sit against the wall, between both bunks. In José's former life, he might have chatted with Private Azaram when they woke up. They would shoot the shit, tease each other a bit, and yap about all the vague mundanities of life. But no longer will that happen. José stares at his bunkmate's empty bed. Unbidden, a memory floats to the top of his mind. Yo, José, I hear you knocked your lady up. So, you gonna pop the question? Come on, man. Can't hurt to settle down for a couple decades, raise an ankle-biter, then return once you've had your fun. I'm too busy for that, Kiki. Don't give me that crap. The war's been raging for hundreds of thousands of years. One soldier taking twenty years off to raise a kid won't change anything. It will for me. I shouldn't have gotten involved with her. That's love, man. Love! You know what that means, right? You've gotta stop running away from everything. She'll be better off without me. José... The memory fades. José continues to stare at the other cot for several long seconds afterward. "Admiral." Umi's voice beeps above, as she prods the Terran again. "I know you are awake. I have observed your brainwaves shifting into the green spectrum." Admiral Rodriguez sighs. "Just leave me alone for a few minutes." "...Very well." Umi falls silent, leaving José to his thoughts. Slowly, the Admiral moves his left leg toward the edge of the bed. He gently lowers it to the floor, then follows with his right. After twenty or so seconds, he pushes himself into a sitting position and coughs. A small cloud of dust kicks up around him, but he ignores it. José sits on the edge of his bed. He leans forward, face in hands, elbows on his knees. I'm sorry, Evelyn. Tears well up in the Terran's eyes. The shock of the last two days creeps into the back of his mind as he finally takes some time to sit down and sort through his emotions. I left you behind, and our child. I don't even know if it was a boy or a girl. José lifts his thin, gangly arm, and presses his fingers against his eyelids. After wiping away a few tears, he sniffles quietly. What the hell am I supposed to do? Do I even have a reason to live? His thoughts shift back to all the pointless mundanities he once pursued. Promotions. Killing. The envy of his peers. The respect of his benefactor, Ramma. José opens his eyes and glances at a small bedside dresser. With its former brown coloration lost to the passage of time, it now appears white as snow. The lone furniture piece on José's side appears to be on its last legs, as if a gentle nudge would cause it to crumble into dust. Only the lack of oxygen in the room for millions of years has allowed it to remain standing for so long. However, José's eyes look toward the top of the dresser, where a broken picture frame rests. With its glass having long-since decayed into sandy particles along with the glue holding its wooden sides together, the portrait lies in a heap atop the dresser, apparently having fallen forward and broken at some point. Slowly, José reaches over and nudges aside the frame's wooden edges. He pulls out a brown piece of paper, its corners curled, upon which a person's portrait used to rest. Now, its faded coloration shows nothing. José turns the piece of paper around in his hands, searching for any modicum of familiarity. Despite nothing being on its surface, his mind still fills in the image of a smiling, brown-haired woman's face. "Evelyn..." The Admiral lowers his hand and drops the worthless scrap to the floor. His shoulders slump as he leans forward, even more broken than before. Mulling on the immense physical pain he endured during the surgery, as well as the loss of everyone he ever cared about, José's thoughts turn truly dark as he begins to imagine the barrel of a plasma carbine pressing against his skull. It would be so easy. No more pain. No more worries. Maybe I could see her again and... apologize. The Admiral's stomach growls, reminding him that he hasn't eaten even once in the last two days. Still, he doesn't move. "...Umi." "Yes, Admiral? How are you feeling? I'm presently detecting large amount of negative emotions within your-" "I don't give a damn what you detect," José mutters. "Just shut up and answer some questions for me." "Affirmative, Admiral," Umi replies without complaint. "Ask whatever you wish." However, José hesitates. He closes his eyes and sighs. "Do... do you have any... any audio logs? Video logs? Of the other crew, I mean. The deceased." "Negative, Admiral. In the event of a gradual system collapse, my subsystems will automatically convert high-capacity files involving video and audio to text format to save space. I have already converted all available audio and video logs to text, as per my system's parameters. If I did not perform those operations, I would have experienced a much larger amount of overall data loss." "Oh. I see." The Admiral's body seemingly increases in weight. A creeping sense of isolation hits him, making him feel hopeless and lonely. "Not even one person's voice remains. All I have are my memories." "Admiral? Are you... in pain?" "Not physically." Umi's voice lowers. "You have endured an extreme amount of trauma, as of late. The body may heal, but the mind is not always so resilient. I would advise an immediate psychiatric evaluation, if possible, but..." The synthmind trails off, making José nod. "Who's left for me to talk to? Nobody. Just a bunch of aliens. Strangers I barely know." "I have undergone a high-level of degradation to my Emotion Cores," Umi says. "Therefore, I am unable to properly offer counsel on this matter. However, it seems logical to me that you should at least attempt to speak to one of the Kraktol about your concerns, Admiral." "I can't do that," José says. "Megla still considers me her enemy. Soren is probably friendlier than her sister, but she's still an unknown factor. If I reveal weakness in front of them, then perhaps I won't be able to keep them under control. Who knows what they might do when I turn my back?" "Admiral. You seem to distrust the Kraktol conscripts. If so, why did you bring them aboard the Bloodbearer? This move seems... illogical." "I'm human, Umi. I don't operate logically. Even I don't know why I let them come with me." Shakily, José pushes himself off the bed and rises to his feet. His legs tremble visibly as he staggers toward the nearby wheelchair and plops into its embrace. His arms and legs appear slightly more muscular than when he first left the surgery room, but nevertheless, they're far too weak to support his current weight. "If the Kraktol wished you harm, they could have killed you immediately following the operation," Umi says. "You weren't capable of defending yourself. The holo-crew would have posed little threat to the Kraktol, given their limited intelligence. Perhaps you should revise your opinion of Officers Soren and Megla." "Perhaps," José answers, noncommittally. "For now... I can't trust anyone. I don't have a solid understanding of the political situation inside the Milky Way. I don't know who any of the major powers are. I already have at least one major enemy, but no allies." Umi starts to reply, but José cuts her off. "The Kessu don't count. They're primitives. I doubt they'll be a major galactic power I can rely on for support and logistics." "...Understood, Admiral," Umi replies, her voice low. "It seems that we must attempt to establish communication with the Kraktol's enemies. According to the data I've recovered, the Mallali and Avaru are our best bet." "I'll worry about that later," the Admiral says. "Right now, repairing the Bloodbearer is my number one priority." José reaches for his wheelchair's controls. He starts to drive it outside, but pauses. Slowly, the Admiral lowers his gaze to the faded, cracked piece of paper sitting on the floor. The only image he ever had of Evelyn. The Terran turns his gaze away. With a small shake of his head, he drives toward the doorway, leaving his room behind. Too many painful memories here. Perhaps I should make Admiral Baruchen's quarters mine after all. ... José rolls forward on the wheeled machine in silence for five minutes. Eventually, he speaks to Umi. "Where are Soren and Megla?" "The two Kraktol woke up from their slumber five hours and six minutes ago, Admiral," Umi replies. "Since you stressed the importance of time and our limited resources, I took the initiative to guide them toward the engine ventilation system. Under my guidance, the two of them have cleaned out approximately 0.0054% of the accumulated debris and waste byproduct. The Bloodbearer will only reach low-operational-status once your crew clears out at least 20% of the oxidization clogging the engines." "Mmm. Have those women meet up with me along the way." "Orders received. Admiral, I must also mention a severe lack of resources for food production aboard the Bloodbearer. The biomatter storage is currently at 0% after I discarded all the hardened, rotted material. I was able to create some basic ration bars for the Kessu and Kraktol, but their nutritional value was negligible and every officer complained about the taste." José groans. "No food. No engines. No allies. The whole ship is broken. Can't I get some good news for once?" "Affirmative," Umi beeps in response. "The Kessu and Kraktol did not engage in verbal warfare while you were asleep. According to my calculations, this represents an improvement in their relations of 7.5%." "...Thanks, Umi." José says, his voice dripping with sarcasm. "I don't know what I would do without you." Umi replies with a sugary-sweet tone. "According to my predictive matrix; you would die." José's only reply is a long, low groan. ....................................... "Admiral!" Soren says, her voice containing a note of alarm. She and Megla trot toward José as he rolls down the Bloodbearer's primary connective corridor, arriving at his position after a few moments. "Are you alright? Your body seemed to be heavily injured when I last saw you." "I'm dandy," José grumbles. "Just wonderful." The Admiral glances at Megla. He waits for a snarky comeback, only to almost fall out of his chair when she speaks. "That's great, Admiral. I was- I mean, we were really worried about you. We, ah... we thought you wouldn't make it. I'm glad you're okay." José blinks several times to make sure he isn't still sleeping. "You were... concerned? About me?" Megla crosses her arms and looks away. "Erm... only a little." The Terran shakes his head to try and clear away the cobwebs in his brain. "I see. Well, thank you for your concern. I'm much weaker than before, so I can hardly move on my own. I hope you two will assist me in repairing the Bloodbearer's systems." The Admiral's gaze falls toward both Kraktol officer's waists, where steel belts hang with a small assortment of attached repair tools. The two womens' usually pristine red and yellow scales appear dirty, caked with dirt and grease. "Of course, Admiral," Soren says. She walks behind José's wheelchair and grabs its top handles to push him forward. "What are you doing?" José asks, suspicion in his voice. "I don't believe you should be expending any energy, Admiral. Please allow me to guide you wherever you please. It would be best if you could relax and leave the hard work to my sister and I." Before José can reply, Megla strides over to Soren's side and huffs. "Kyargh! Let me push the Admiral. I'm sure you're still tired from sticking your head inside that greasy ventilation duct." "No need," Soren says, a faint smile on her face. "I can handle this simple task." "I know you can," Megla protests. "But so can I! Hmph, listen to your big sister for once, why don't you?" Soren's smile widens. "You seem awfully eager to get close to the Admiral." "I-I'm not!" Megla yelps, her yellow scales brightening intensely. She takes a step away from Soren with a strange look in her eyes. "I... I just want to help!" "Kuhak!" Soren laughs. Her usual stoic demeanor cracks slightly upon seeing her sister's flustered look. "Something seems to have changed with your heart, Megla." José sighs. "Ladies. Please. Stop fighting over me like I'm a piece of meat. We don't have time to waste. I'll drive myself to the Engine Room. You just walk alongside me and listen. I have a lot of information to relay." Both Kraktol women frown for a moment before hiding their emotions. With a sigh, Soren pulls away from José and raises her palms. "I see. My apologies, Admiral. I did not mean to insult your abilities. You can surely move yourself if necessary." The Admiral looks into the disappointed eyes of Soren, before glancing at Megla afterward. Both of them appear miffed that he would ignore their genuine, heartfelt offers. However, José ignores their silly behavior. "Come along. I want to examine the engine room's condition for myself." Soren lowers her head. "Yes, Admiral..." "Do what you want," Megla snorts, her annoyance plain as day. She crosses her arms and walks beside José on his left, while Soren walks on his right. They begin heading toward the engine room at a pace neither too fast, nor too slow. An awkward silence ensues. After a few minutes, José clears his throat. "Did Umi explain the mechanics of a Triple-Induction Drive to either of you?" Soren shakes her head. "No. We asked several questions, but the synthmind did not answer. She only guided us on the cleaning and repair process for the engine exhaust vents." From above, Umi speaks. "Admiral. Given the two Kraktol are newly acquired crew-members, and given their origins, I have registered them as 'initiate crew.' Unless you remove the restriction on Class 4 information and below, I will be unable to provide them with information regarding this ship's features or technical blueprints. Based upon the information I've collected from the Dragon Breath's databases, the galaxy at large is unaware of the capabilities of 40th and 50th Era technology. Very few factions possess ships from later than the 30th era, so I have calculated that classifying this information as Top Secret is a prudent move." José nods. "I agree. However, Soren and Megla are now officers of this vessel. In the future, please provide them with any general information of Class 3 and below as their knowledge-base evolves. I'll evaluate the rest on a case-by-case basis." The Admiral speaks openly with Umi right in front of the Kraktol, allowing both of them to hear his words. They glance at each other out of the corners of their eyes and sigh. The Admiral doesn't trust us. Given he's only known us for a day, that's to be expected. ... It doesn't take long before José and the Kraktol arrive at the entrance to the Bloodbearer's Engine Bay. Its entry doors, barely maintained by one of the six Filth Expunger Units over the past 100,000,000 years, slowly slide open. The top and bottom squeal in a most annoying manner due to a large amount of rust accumulation, but the three officers ignore the awful sound. Jose arrives inside a large, circular chamber, easily twice as big as an open-air football stadium. In the center of the room, three giant circular metal platforms sit next to one another in a triangular formation. They hum with energy, causing the air inside the room to vibrate and rattle all three officers' teeth. An energy field twenty meters tall rises toward the ceiling above each platform, where a second set of platforms on the roof meet the field and keep its energy circulating to form a powerful containment field. Inside the energy fields, three giant orbs of explosive-looking energy rapidly whirl around, revealing themselves to be the cause of the intense, energetic humming sensation. Hundreds of thick, Terran-body-width cables stick out of the walls and slink along the ground, connecting to the platforms on the floor, but also the ceiling. They suck the leftover energy from the energized orbs away to power the rest of the ship, preventing them from detonating with high-yield nuclear explosions. Countless robotic arms, long-since rusted-over, stick out of the engine room's walls. Only twenty or so move around and poke at the various computer consoles scattered throughout the room, but it appears clear to José and the Kraktol that this room is just as decayed and dilapidated as the rest of the ship. "Damn..." José mutters. "Even more things to repair. The work never ends. The inventor of bio-fusion once claimed his power sources would last for a billion years, so I guess he was right after all. The ship is likely to break long before the reactors lose their charge." Soren gestures toward the far wall. "The synthmind had us clean the ventilation ducts over there. I only scraped out out the interiors of the first five, but more than a hundred remain." Nodding, José says, "Yes, but cleaning the engine ventilation ducts is only the first step. We also need to clean and maintain the plasma warp conduits, then exit the ship and decalcify the exterior engines. Beyond that, we have to examine the damage this sector's plasma storm has likely caused the Bloodbearer's hull. If there are any breaches on the exterior, we must seal them up before entering Folded Space." Soren's eyes flash with hunger. "Admiral, didn't you tell us you were going to explain the Triple Induction Drive and Folded Space? I'm dying to know more." José smiles. "Oh, yes. I had almost forgotten! Haha, your thirst for knowledge is quite admirable." The Terran wheels toward one of the many nearby broken computer consoles. He gestures toward Megla's toolbelt, prompting her to step closer. Despite the weakness in his body and his atrophied limbs, his shaking and trembles appear to have mostly worn off since resting, so he easily snatches three odd-looking pen-gadgets from her before turning to the console. Whirr. Bzzt. José's hands become a blur as he gets to work fixing the first of many computers within the Engine Room. "A Triple-Induction Drive is not something those from the 30th era would know much about, given how long it took us Terrans to perfect that technology..." Both of the Kraktol lean in to listen as José explains this incredible technology and its uses to them. Next Part ....................................... Author Note: Klokinator here! I am also the author of The Cryopod to Hell. The Last Precursor takes place in the [Cryoverse] which TCTH spawned. You do not have to read TCTH to enjoy TLP. However, I highly recommend it if you enjoy HFY themes, but be warned it will take some 200 parts to get to the relevant HFY elements due to the nature of the story. (A similar structure involving very few humans fighting against vicious demons that have taken over the galaxy.) If you like this story, please consider subscribing to my Patreon! I am very poor and presently jobless due to Coronavirus, so every dollar helps. You get access to Cryopod artwork, and plenty of other exclusive posts, with more to come soon. Thank you!
TL;DR: Man with too much time on his hands goes deep down the rabbit hole on a concept this sub already didn’t seem that enthusiastic about. If you really want to skip ahead, CTRL+F “verdict” and it’ll get you there. Two days ago, u/MrPhillyj2wns made a post asking whether USL should launch a D1 league in order to compete in Concacaf. From the top voted replies, it appears this made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move. But I’ve been at home for eight weeks and I am terribly, terribly bored. So, I present to you this overview of what the USL pyramid might look like if Jake Edwards got a head of steam and attempted to establish a USSF-sanctioned first division. This is by no means an endorsement of such a proposal or even a suggestion that USL SHOULD do such a thing. It is merely an examination of whether they COULD. Welcome to the Thunderdome USL Premiership First, there are some base-level assumptions we must make in this exercise, because it makes me feel more scientific and not like a guy who wrote this on Sunday while watching the Belarusian Premier League (Go BATE Borisov!).
All D1 teams must comply with known USSF requirements for D1 leagues (more on that later).
MLS, not liking this move, will immediately remove all directly-owned affiliate clubs from the USL structure (this does not include hybrid ownerships, like San Antonio FC – NYCFC). This removes all MLS2 teams but will not affect Colorado Springs, Reno, RGVFC and San Antonio.
The USL will attempt to maintain both the USL Championship and USL League One, with an eventual mind toward creating the pro/rel paradise that is promised in Relegations 3:16.
All of my research regarding facility size and ownership net worth is correct – this is probably the biggest leap of faith we have to make, since googling “NAME net worth” and “CITY richest people” doesn’t seem guaranteed to return accurate results.
The most a club can increase its available seating capacity to meet D1 requirements in a current stadium is no more than 1,500 seats (10% of the required 15,000). If they need to add more, they’ll need a new facility.
Let’s pretend that people are VERY willing to sell. It’s commonly acknowledged that the USL is a more financially feasible route to owning a soccer club than in MLS (c.f. MLS-Charlotte’s reported $325 million expansion fee) and the USSF has some very strict requirements for D1 sanctioning. It becomes pretty apparent when googling a lot of team’s owners that this requirement isn’t met, so let’s assume everyone that can’t sells to people who meet the requirements.
(Known) USSF D1 league requirements: - League must have 12 teams to apply and 14 teams by year three - Majority owner must have a net worth of $40 million, and the ownership group must have a total net worth of $70 million. The value of an owned stadium is not considered when calculating this value. - Must have teams located in the Eastern, Central and Pacific time zones - 75% of league’s teams must be based in markets with at a metro population of at least 1 million people. - All league stadiums must have a capacity of at least 15,000 The ideal club candidate for the USL Premiership will meet the population and capacity requirements in its current ground, which will have a grass playing surface. Of the USL Championship’s 27 independent/hybrid affiliate clubs, I did not find one club that meets all these criteria as they currently stand. Regarding turf fields, the USSF does not have a formal policy regarding the ideal playing surface but it is generally acknowledged that grass is superior to turf. 6 of 26 MLS stadiums utilize turf, or roughly 23% of stadiums. We’ll hold a similar restriction for our top flight, so 2-3 of our top flight clubs can have turf fields. Seem fair? Capacity is going to be the biggest issue, since the disparity between current requirements for the second-tier (5,000) and the first tier (15,000) is a pretty massive gap. Nice club you have there, triple your capacity and you’re onto something. As a result, I have taken the liberty of relocating certain (read: nearly all) clubs to new grounds, trying my utmost to keep those clubs in their current markets and –importantly--, ensure they play on grass surfaces. So, let’s do a case-by-case evaluation and see if we can put together 12-14 teams that meet the potential requirements, because what else do you have to do? For each club’s breakdown, anything that represents a chance from what is currently true will be underlined. Candidate: Birmingham Legion FC Location (Metro population): Birmingham, Ala. (1,151,801) Time zone: Central Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Legion Field (FieldTurf, 71,594) Potential owner: Stephens Family (reported net worth $4 billion) Notes: Birmingham has a pretty strong candidacy. Having ditched the 5,000-seater BBVA Field for Legion Field, which sits 2.4 miles away, they’ve tapped into the city’s soccer history. Legion Field hosted portions of both the men’s and women’s tournaments at the 1996 Olympics, including a 3-1 U.S. loss to Argentina that saw 83,183 pack the house. The Harbert family seemed like strong ownership contenders, but since the death of matriarch Marguerite Harbert in 2015, it’s unclear where the wealth in the family is concentrated, so the Stephens seem like a better candidate. The only real knock that I can think of is that we really want to avoid having clubs play on turf, so I’d say they’re on the bubble of our platonic ideal USL Prem. Candidate: Charleston Battery Location (Metro population): Charleston, S.C. (713,000) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Johnson Hagood Stadium (Grass, ~14,700) Potential owner: Anita Zucker (reported net worth $3 billion) Notes: Charleston’s candidacy isn’t looking great. Already disadvantaged due to its undersized metro population, a move across the Cooper River to Johnson Hagood Stadium is cutting it close in terms of capacity. The stadium, home to The Citadel’s football team, used to seat 21,000, before 9,300 seats on the eastern grandstand were torn down in 2017 to deal with lead paint that had been used in their construction. Renovation plans include adding 3,000 seats back in, which could hit 15,000 if they bumped it to 3,300, but throw in a required sale by HCFC, LLC (led by content-creation platform founder Rob Salvatore) to chemical magnate Anita Zucker, and you’ll see there’s a lot of ifs and ands in this proposal. Candidate: Charlotte Independence Location (Metro population): Charlotte, N.C. (2,569, 213) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Jerry Richardson Stadium (Turf, 15,314) Potential owner: James Goodnight (reported net worth $9.1 billion) Notes: Charlotte ticks a lot of the boxes. A move from the Sportsplex at Matthews to UNC-Charlotte’s Jerry Richardson stadium meets capacity requirements, but puts them on to the dreaded turf. Regrettably, nearby American Legion Memorial Stadium only seats 10,500, despite a grass playing surface. With a sizeable metro population (sixth-largest in the USL Championship) and a possible owner in software billionaire James Goodnight, you’ve got some options here. The biggest problem likely lies in direct competition for market share against a much better-funded MLS Charlotte side due to join the league in 2021. Candidate: Hartford Athletic Location (Metro population): Hartford, Conn. (1,214,295) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Pratt & Whitney Stadium (Grass, 38,066) Potential owner: Ray Dalio (reported net worth $18.4 billion) Notes: Okay, I cheated a bit here, having to relocate Hartford to Pratt & Whitney Stadium, which is technically in East Hartford, Conn. I don’t know enough about the area to know if there’s some kind of massive beef between the two cities, but the club has history there, having played seven games in 2019 while Dillon Stadium underwent renovations. If the group of local businessmen that currently own the club manage to attract Dalio to the table, we’re on to something. Candidate: Indy Eleven Location (Metro population): Indianapolis, Ind. (2,048,703) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lucas Oil Stadium (Turf, 62,421) Potential owner: Jim Irsay (reported net worth of $3 billion) Notes: Indy Eleven are a club that are SO CLOSE to being an ideal candidate – if it weren’t for Lucas Oil Stadium’s turf playing surface. Still, there’s a lot to like in this bid. I’m not going to lie, I have no idea what current owner and founder Ersal Ozdemir is worth, but it seems like there might be cause for concern. A sale to Irsay, who also owns the NFL Indianapolis (nee Baltimore) Colts, seems likely to keep the franchise there, rather than make a half-mile move to 14,230 capacity Victory Field where the AAA Indianapolis Indians play and expand from there. Candidate: Louisville City FC Location (Metro population): Louisville, Ky. (1,297,310) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lynn Family Stadium (Grass, 14,000, possibly expandable to 20,000) Potential owner: Wayne Hughes (reported net worth $2.8 billion) Notes: I’m stretching things a bit here. Lynn Family stadium is currently listed as having 11,700 capacity that’s expandable to 14,000, but they’ve said that the ground could hold as many as 20,000 with additional construction, which might be enough to grant them a temporary waiver from USSF. If the stadium is a no-go, then there’s always Cardinal Stadium, home to the University of Louisville’s football team, which seats 65,000 but is turf. Either way, it seems like a sale to someone like Public Storage founder Wayne Hughes will be necessary to ensure the club has enough capital. Candidate: Memphis 901 FC Location (Metro population): Memphis, Tenn. (1,348,260) Time zone: Central Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Liberty Bowl Stadium (Turf, 58,325) Potential owner: Fred Smith (reported net worth $3 billion) Notes: Unfortunately for Memphis, AutoZone Park’s 10,000 seats won’t cut it at the D1 level. With its urban location, it would likely prove tough to renovate, as well. Liberty Bowl Stadium more than meets the need, but will involve the use of the dreaded turf. As far as an owner goes, FedEx founder Fred Smith seems like a good local option. Candidate: Miami FC, “The” Location (Metro population): Miami, Fla. (6,158,824) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Riccardo Silva Stadium (FieldTurf, 20,000) Potential owner: Riccardo Silva (reported net worth $1 billion) Notes: Well, well, well, Silva might get his wish for top-flight soccer, after all. He’s got the money, he’s got the metro, and his ground has the capacity. There is the nagging issue of the turf, though. Hard Rock Stadium might present a solution, including a capacity of 64,767 and a grass playing surface. It is worth noting, however, that this is the first profile where I didn’t have to find a new potential owner for a club. Candidate: North Carolina FC Location (Metro population): Durham, N.C. (1,214,516 in The Triangle) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Carter-Finley Stadium (Grass/Turf, 57,583) Potential owner: Steve Malik (precise net worth unknown) / Dennis Gillings (reported net worth of $1.7 billion) Notes: We have our first “relocation” in North Carolina FC, who were forced to trade Cary’s 10,000-seat WakeMed Soccer Park for Carter-Finley Stadium in Durham, home of the NC State Wolfpack and 57,583 of their closest friends. The move is a whopping 3.1 miles, thanks to the close-knit hub that exists between Cary, Durham and Raleigh. Carter-Finley might be my favorite of the stadium moves in this exercise. The field is grass, but the sidelines are artificial turf. Weird, right? Either way, it was good enough for Juventus to play a friendly against Chivas de Guadalajara there in 2011. Maybe the move would be pushed for by new owner and medical magnate Dennis Gillings, whose British roots might inspire him to get involved in the Beautiful Game. Straight up, though, I couldn’t find a net worth for current owner Steve Malik, though he did sell his company MedFusion for $91 million in 2010, then bought it back for an undisclosed amount and sold it again for $43 million last November. I don’t know if Malik has the juice to meet D1 requirements, but I suspect he’s close. Candidate: Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Location (Metro population): Pittsburgh, Penn. (2,362,453) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Heinz Field (Grass, 64,450) Potential owner: Henry Hillman (reported net worth $2.5 billion) Notes: I don’t know a ton about the Riverhounds, but this move in particular feels like depriving a pretty blue-collar club from its roots. Highmark Stadium is a no-go from a seating perspective, but the Steelers’ home stadium at Heinz Field would more than meet the requirements and have a grass surface that was large enough to be sanctioned for a FIFA friendly between the U.S. WNT and Costa Rica in 2015. As for an owner, Tuffy Shallenberger (first ballot owner name HOF) doesn’t seem to fit the USSF bill, but legendary Pittsburgh industrialist Henry Hillman might. I’m sure you’re asking, why not the Rooney Family, if they’ll play at Heinz Field? I’ll tell you: I honestly can’t seem to pin down a value for the family. The Steelers are valued at a little over a billion and rumors persist that Dan Rooney is worth $500 million, but I’m not sure. I guess the Rooneys would work too, but it’s a definite departure from an owner in Shallenberger who was described by one journalist as a guy who “wears boots, jeans, a sweater and a trucker hat.” Candidate: Saint Louis FC Location (Metro population): St. Louis, Mo. (2,807,338) Time zone: Central Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Busch Stadium (Grass, 45,494) Potential owner: William DeWitt Jr. (reported net worth $4 billion) Notes: Saint Louis has some weirdness in making the jump to D1. Current CEO Jim Kavanaugh is an owner of the MLS side that will begin play in 2022. The club’s current ground at West Community Stadium isn’t big enough, but perhaps a timely sale to Cardinals owner William DeWitt Jr. could see the club playing games at Busch Stadium, which has a well established history of hosting other sports like hockey, college football and soccer (most recently a U.S. WNT friendly against New Zealand in 2019). The competition with another MLS franchise wouldn’t be ideal, like Charlotte, but with a big enough population and cross marketing from the Cardinals, maybe there’s a winner here. Wacko idea: If Busch doesn’t pan out, send them to The Dome. Sure, it’s a 60k turf closed-in stadium, but we can go for that retro NASL feel and pay homage to our nation’s soccer history. Candidate: Tampa Bay Rowdies Location (Metro population): Tampa, Fla. (3,068,511) Time zone: Eastern Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Raymond James Stadium (Grass, 65,518) Potential owner: Edward DeBartolo Jr. (reported net worth $3 billion) Notes: This one makes me sad. Despite having never been there, I see Al Lang Stadium as an iconic part of the Rowdies experience. Current owner Bill Edwards proposed an expansion to 18,000 seats in 2016, but the move seems to have stalled out. Frustrated with the city’s lack of action, Edwards sells to one-time San Francisco 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr., who uses his old NFL connections to secure a cushy lease at the home of the Buccaneers in Ray Jay, the site of a 3-1 thrashing of Antigua and Barbuda during the United States’ 2014 World Cup Qualifying campaign. Breather. Hey, we finished the Eastern Conference teams. Why are you still reading this? Why am I still writing it? Time is a meaningless construct in 2020 my friends, we are adrift in the void, fueled only by brief flashes of what once was and what may yet still be. Candidate: Austin Bold FC Location (Metro population): Austin, Texas (2,168,316) Time zone: Central Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 95,594) Potential owner: Michael Dell (reported net worth of $32.3 billion) Notes: Anthony Precourt’s Austin FC has some unexpected competition and it comes in the form of tech magnate Michael Dell. Dell, were he to buy the club, would be one of the richest owners on our list and could flash his cash in the new first division. Would he have enough to convince Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (I’m not kidding, that’s its actual name) to go back to a grass surface, like it did from ’96-’08? That’s between Dell and nearly 100,000 UT football fans, but everything can be had for the right price. Candidate: Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Location (Metro population): Colorado Springs, Colo. (738,939) Time zone: Mountain Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Falcon Stadium (FieldTurf, 46,692) Potential owner: Charles Ergen (reported net worth $10.8 billion) Notes: Welcome to Colorado Springs. We have hurdles. For the first time in 12 candidates, we’re back below the desired 1 million metro population mark. Colorado Springs actually plans to build a $35 million, 8,000 seat venue downtown that will be perfect for soccer, but in our timeline that’s 7,000 seats short. Enter Falcon Stadium, home of the Air Force Academy Falcons football team. Seems perfect except for the turf, right? Well, the tricky thing is that Falcon Stadium is technically on an active military base and is (I believe) government property. Challenges to getting in and out of the ground aside, the military tends to have a pretty grim view of government property being used by for-profit enterprises. Maybe Charles Ergen, founder and chairman of Dish Network, would be able to grease the right wheels, but you can go ahead and throw this into the “doubtful” category. It’s a shame, too. 6,035 feet of elevation is one hell of a home-field advantage. Candidate: El Paso Locomotive FC Location: El Paso, Texas Time zone: Mountain Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Sun Bowl (FieldTurf, 51,500) Potential owner: Paul Foster (reported net worth $1.7 billion) Notes: God bless Texas. When compiling this list, I found so many of the theoretical stadium replacements were nearly serviceable by high school football fields. That’s insane, right? Anyway, Locomotive don’t have to settle for one of those, they’ve got the Sun Bowl, which had its capacity reduced in 2001 to a paltry 51,500 (from 52,000) specifically to accommodate soccer. Sure, it’s a turf surface, but what does new owner Paul Foster (who is only the 1,477th wealthiest man in the world, per Forbes) care, he’s got a team in a top league. Side note: Did you know that the Sun Bowl college football game is officially, through sponsorship, the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl? Why is it not the Frosted Flakes Sun Bowl? Why is the cereal mascot the promotional name of the football game? What are you doing, Kellogg’s? Candidate: Las Vegas Lights FC Location: Las Vegas, Nev. (2,227,053) Time zone: Pacific Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Allegiant Stadium (Grass, 61,000) Potential owner: Sheldon Adelson (reported net worth $37.7 billion) Notes: Sin City. You had to know that the club that once signed Freddy Adu because “why not” was going to go all out in our flashy hypothetical proposal. Thanks to my narrative control of this whole thing, they have. Adelson is the second-richest owner in the league and has decided to do everything first class. That includes using the new Raiders stadium in nearby unincorporated Paradise, Nevada, and spending boatloads on high profile transfers. Zlatan is coming back to the U.S., confirmed. Candidate: New Mexico United Location: Albuquerque, N.M. Time zone: Mountain Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Isotopes Park – officially Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Grass, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion) Potential owner: Maloof Family (reported net worth $1 billion) Notes: New Mexico from its inception went deep on the community vibe, and I’ve tried to replicate that in this bid. The home field of Rio Grande Cr---I’m not typing out the whole thing—Isotopes Park falls just within the expansion rules we set to make it to 15,000 (weird, right?) and they’ve found a great local ownership group in the Lebanese-American Maloof (formerly Maalouf) family from Las Vegas. The only thing to worry about would be the metro population, but overall, this could be one of the gems of USL Prem. Candidate: Oklahoma City Energy FC Location: Oklahoma City, Okla. (1,396,445) Time zone: Central Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (Grass, 13,066) Potential owner: Harold Hamm (reported net worth $14.2 billion) Notes: There’s a bright golden haze on the meadow and it says it’s time to change stadiums and owners to make it to D1. A sale to oil magnate Harold Hamm would give the club the finances it needs, but Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (home of the OKC Dodgers) actually falls outside of the boundary of what would meet capacity if 1,500 seats were added. Could the club pull off a move to Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma – home of the Oklahoma Sooners? Maybe, but at 20 miles, this would be a reach. Candidate: Orange County SC Location: Irvine, Calif. (3,176, 000 in Orange County) Time zone: Pacific Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Angels Stadium of Anaheim (Grass, 43,250) Potential owner: Arte Moreno (reported net worth $3.3 billion) Notes: You’ll never convince me that Rangers didn’t choose to partner with Orange County based primarily on its name. Either way, a sale to MLB Angels owner Arte Moreno produces a fruitful partnership, with the owner choosing to play his newest club out of the existing Angels stadium in OC. Another baseball conversion, sure, but with a metro population of over 3 million and the closest thing this hypothetical league has to an LA market, who’s complaining? Candidate: Phoenix Rising FC Location: Phoenix, Ariz. (4,857,962) Time zone: Arizona Stadium (playing surface, capacity): State Farm Stadium (Grass, 63,400) Potential owner: Ernest Garcia II (reported net worth $5.7 billion) Notes: We’re keeping it local with new owner and used car guru Ernest Garcia II. His dad owned a liquor store and he dropped out of college, which is making me feel amazing about my life choices right now. Casino Arizona Field is great, but State Farm Stadium is a grass surface that hosted the 2019 Gold Cup semifinal, so it’s a clear winner. Throw in Phoenix’s massive metro population and this one looks like a lock. Candidate: Reno 1868 FC Location: Reno, Nev. (425,417) Time zone: Pacific Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000) Potential owner: Nancy Walton Laurie (reported net worth $7.1 billion) Notes: The Biggest Little City on Earth has some serious barriers to overcome, thanks to its low metro population. A sale to Walmart heiress Nancy Walton Laurie and 1.6 mile-move to Mackay Stadium to split space with the University of Nevada, Reno makes this bid competitive, but the turf surface is another knock against it. Candidate: Rio Grande Valley FC Location: Edinburg, Texas (900,304) Time zone: Central Stadium (playing surface, capacity): McAllen Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion) Potential owner: Alice Louise Walton (reported net worth $45 billion) Notes: Yes, I have a second straight Walmart heiress on the list. She was the first thing that popped up when I googled “McAllen Texas richest people.” The family rivalry has spurred Walton to buy a club as well, moving them 10 miles to McAllen Memorial Stadium which, as I alluded to earlier, is a straight up high school football stadium with a full color scoreboard. Toss in an additional 1,500 seats and you’ve met the minimum, despite the turf playing surface. Candidate: San Antonio FC Location: San Antonio, Texas (2,550,960) Time zone: Central Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Alamodome (FieldTurf, 64,000) Potential owner: Red McCombs (reported net worth $1.6 billion) Notes: I wanted to keep SAFC in the Spurs family, since the franchise is valued at $1.8 billion. That said, I didn’t let the Rooneys own the Riverhounds based on the Steelers’ value and it felt wrong to change the rules, so bring on Clear Channel co-founder Red McCombs. Toyota Field isn’t viable in the first division, but for the Alamodome, which was built in 1993 in hopes of attracting an NFL franchise (and never did), San Antonio can finally claim having *a* national football league team in its town (contingent on your definition of football). Now if only we could do something about that turf… Candidate: San Diego Loyal SC Location: San Diego, Calif. (3,317,749) Time zone: Pacific Stadium (playing surface, capacity): SDCCU Stadium (formerly Qualcomm) (Grass, 70,561) Potential owner: Phil Mickelson (reported net worth $91 million) Notes: Yes, golf’s Phil Mickelson. The existing ownership group didn’t seem to have the wherewithal to meet requirements, and Phil seemed to slot right in. As an athlete himself, he might be interesting in the new challenges of a top flight soccer team. Toss in a move to the former home of the chargers and you might have a basis for tremendous community support. Candidate: FC Tulsa Location: Tulsa, Okla. (991,561) Time zone: Central Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000) Potential owner: George Kaiser ($10 billion) Notes: I’m a fan of FC Tulsa’s rebrand, but if they want to make the first division, more changes are necessary. A sale to Tulsa native and one of the 100 richest men in the world George Kaiser means that funding is guaranteed. A move to Chapman Stadium would provide the necessary seats, despite the turf field. While the undersize population might be an issue at first glance, it’s hard to imagine U.S. Soccer not granting a waiver over a less than a 10k miss from the mark. And that’s it! You made it. Those are all of the independent/hybrid affiliates in the USL Championship, which means that it’s time for our… VERDICT: As an expert who has studied this issue for almost an entire day now, I am prepared to pronounce which USL Championships could be most ‘ready” for a jump to the USL Prem. A reminder that of the 27 clubs surveyed, 0 of them met our ideal criteria (proper ownership $, metro population, 15,000+ stadium with grass field). Two of them, however, met almost all of those criteria: Indy Eleven and Miami FC. Those two clubs may use up two of our three available turf fields right from the outset, but the other factors they hit (particularly Silva’s ownership of Miami) makes them difficult, if not impossible to ignore for the top flight. But who fill in the rest of the slots? Meet the entire 14-team USL Premier League: Hartford Athletic Indy Eleven Louisville City FC Miami FC North Carolina FC Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Tampa Bay Rowdies Saint Louis FC San Antonio FC New Mexico United Phoenix Rising FC Las Vegas Lights FC Orange County SC San Diego Loyal SC Now, I shall provide my expert rationale for each club’s inclusion/exclusion, which can be roughly broken down into four categories. Firm “yes” Hartford Athletic: It’s a good market size with a solid stadium. With a decent investor and good community support, you’ve got potential here. Indy Eleven: The turf at Lucas Oil Stadium is no reason to turn down a 62,421 venue and a metro population of over 2 million. Louisville City FC: Why doesn’t the 2017 & 2018 USL Cup champion deserve a crack at the top flight? They have the market size, and with a bit of expansion have the stadium at their own SSS. LCFC, you’re in. Miami FC, “The”: Our other blue-chip recruit on the basis of ownership value, market size and stadium capacity. Yes, that field is turf, but how could you snub Silva’s chance to claim victory as the first division 1 club soccer team to play in Miami? Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC: Pittsburgh sacrificed a lot to be here (according to my arbitrary calculations). Their market size and the potential boon of soccer at Heinz Field is an important inclusion to the league. Saint Louis FC: Willie hears your “Busch League” jokes, Willie don’t care. A huge market size, combined with the absence of an NFL franchise creates opportunity. Competition with the MLS side, sure, but St. Louis has serious soccer history and we’re willing to bet it can support two clubs. Tampa Bay Rowdies: With a huge population and a massive stadium waiting nearby, Tampa Bay seems like too good of an opportunity to pass up for the USL Prem. Las Vegas Lights FC: Ostentatious, massive and well-financed, Las Vegas Lights FC is everything that the USL Premier League would need to assert that it didn’t intend to play second fiddle to MLS. Players will need to be kept on a short leash, but this is a hard market to pass up on. Phoenix Rising FC: Huge population, big grass field available nearby and a solid history of success in recent years. No brainer. San Diego Loyal SC: New club? Yes, massive population in a market that recently lost an absolutely huge sports presence? Also yes. This could be the USL Prem’s Seattle. Cautious “yes” New Mexico United: You have to take a chance on New Mexico United. The club set the league on fire with its social media presence and its weight in the community when it entered the league last season. The market may be slightly under USSF’s desired 1 million, but fervent support (and the ability to continue to use Isotopes Park) shouldn’t be discounted. North Carolina FC: Carter-Finley’s mixed grass/turf surface is a barrier, to be sure, but the 57,000+ seats it offers (and being enough to offset other fully-turf offerings) is enough to put it in the black. Orange County SC: It’s a top-tier club playing in a MLB stadium. I know it seems unlikely that USSF would approve something like that, but believe me when I say “it could happen.” Orange County is a massive market and California likely needs two clubs in the top flight. San Antonio FC: Our third and only voluntary inclusion to the turf fields in the first division, we’re counting on San Antonio’s size and massive potential stadium to see it through. Cautious “no” Birmingham Legion FC: The town has solid soccer history and a huge potential venue, but the turf playing surface puts it on the outside looking in. Memphis 901 FC: Like Birmingham, not much to dislike here outside of the turf playing surface at the larger playing venue. Austin Bold FC: See the other two above. FC Tulsa: Everything’s just a little bit off with this one. Market’s slightly too small, stadium has turf. Just not enough to put it over the top. Firm “no” Charleston Battery: Small metro and a small potential new stadium? It’s tough to say yes to the risk. Charlotte Independence: A small new stadium and the possibility of having to compete with an organization that just paid over $300 million to join MLS means it’s best for this club to remain in the USL Championship. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC: When a club’s best chance to meet a capacity requirement is to host games at a venue controlled by the military, that doesn’t speak well to a club’s chances. El Paso Locomotive FC: An undersized market and a turf field that meets capacity requirements is the death knell for this one. Oklahoma City Energy FC: Having to expand a baseball field to meet requirements is a bad start. Having to potentially play 20 miles away from your main market is even worse. Reno 1868 FC: Population nearly a half-million short of the federation’s requirements AND a turf field at the hypothetical new stadium makes impossible to say yes to this bid. Rio Grande Valley FC: All the seat expansions in the world can’t hide the fact that McAllen Memorial Stadium is a high school stadium through and through. Here’s who’s left in the 11-team Championship: Birmingham Legion FC Charleston Battery Charlotte Independence Memphis 901 FC Austin Bold FC Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC El Paso Locomotive FC Oklahoma City Energy FC Reno 1868 FC Rio Grande Valley FC FC Tulsa With MLS folding the six affiliates it has in USL League One, the league is a little bit thin (especially considering USSF’s requirements for 8 teams for lower level leagues), but seems definitely able to expand up to the necessary numbers with Edwards’ allusions to five new additions this year: Chattanooga Red Wolves SC Forward Madison FC Greenville Triumph SC Union Omaha Richmond Kickers South Georgia Tormenta FC Tucson Format of Assorted Leagues – This (like everything in this post) is pure conjecture on my part, but here are my thoughts on how these leagues might function in a first year while waiting for additional expansion. USL Premier – We’ll steal from the 12-team Scottish Premiership. Each club plays the other 11 clubs 3 times, with either one or two home matches against each side. When each club has played 33 matches, the top six and bottom six separate, with every club playing an additional five matches (against each other team in its group). The top club wins the league. The bottom club is automatically relegated. The second-bottom club will enter a two-legged playoff against someone (see below) from the championship playoffs. USL Championship -- 11 clubs is a challenge to schedule for. How about every club plays everyone else three times (either one or two home matches against each side)? Top four clubs make the playoffs, which are decided by two-legged playoffs. The winner automatically goes up. I need feedback on the second part – is it better to have the runner-up from the playoffs face the second-bottom club from the Premiership, or should the winner of the third-place match-up get the chance to face them to keep drama going in both playoff series? As for relegation, we can clearly only send down the last place club while the third division is so small. USL League One – While the league is so small, it doesn’t seem reasonable to have the clubs play as many matches as the higher divisions. Each club could play the other six clubs four times – twice at home and twice away – for a very equitable 24-match regular season, which would help restrict costs and still provide a chance to determine a clear winner. Whoever finishes top of the table goes up. And there you have it, a hypothetical look at how the USL could build a D1 league right now. All it would take is a new stadium for almost the entire league and new owners for all but one of the 27 clubs, who wouldn’t feel that their property would be massively devalued if they got relegated. Well that’s our show. I’m curious to see what you think of all of this, especially anything that you think I may have overlooked (I’m sure there’s plenty). Anyway, I hope you’re all staying safe and well.
Arc 3: Metamorphosis Author: u/PatrollinTheMojave Editors: u/dwright5252 A mass of metal and concrete hurtled through the air towards Jaime. He fought down a pang of fear and shouted “Scarab!” just before the tons of rigging collided. With two metallic clunks, hooks shot out from Jaime’s feet, anchoring him to the stage. { Approaching weight limit. Shifting configuration. } He felt waves of nanomachines brush through his arms and towards the structure, forming support after support until the debris wasn’t at risk of falling on bystanders. The panicked screams of the audience began to mingle with applause and Jaime winced. How could these people think this was part of the demonstration? They were going to get hurt. He looked down at the suddenly fearless audience members - investors, military officers, fans, and little kids all standing their ground. “All of you need to evacuate!” { Jaime Reyes, this structure may be used as a bludgeon. } “Wha-” Jaime started before his eyes flicked up to a NIGHT suit coming directly at him. Scarab was already realigning to deliver a blow with the concrete, but dozens would be hurt if he dropped this thing, let alone slammed it into a guy in a mech suit. Jaime gritted his teeth and braced. A flash of gold streaked across his vision and into the NIGHT suit, slamming both into the stage. “Booster!” His head turned over to the hole in the stage where Booster was standing. The NIGHT suit landed a punch square in Booster’s face, staggering him backward. “Scarab, I need to put this down without hurting anyone.” { Calculating. } Jaime could’ve sworn he heard a hint of annoyance, but sure enough, the nanomachine scaffolding folded in on itself, sliding the mass of metal onto an empty section of the stage. As soon as it slammed against the ground, Jaime’s arms reshaped into a pair of massive blades. If this tech could withstand a hit from Booster, it could take some punishment. At least, that’s what Jaime told himself as he rushed over. Before he reached it, Booster was knocked out of the hole and tumbled across the ground. When the hero finally began pulling himself back up, Jaime let out a sigh of relief. Jaime’s facemask melted away into the rest of the suit, revealing a tense expression. “Are you alright?” Booster smirked. “He got a lucky shot.” “Are you sure? You-” “Beetle.” Booster interrupted. “If we were really in trouble, would the crowd be cheering so loud?” Deafened by the rush of adrenaline and blood beating in his ears, Jaime finally heard the excited voices of the crowd. “Blue and Gold! Blue and Gold!” “We’ve got this.” Booster said. “Right.” Jaime reactivated his faceplate. Hearing everyone’s fear replaced by excitement - maybe Booster wasn’t all wrong. A low rumble moved through the ground. The NIGHT suit rose from the hole, propelled by a set of bright blue thrusters. “YOU TRUST THESE DEMAGOGUES WITH GODLIKE POWER AND THE CORRUPT LEADERS THAT PROTECT THEM. WITNESS THEIR ARROGANCE. YOU CAN THROW OFF THE SHACKLES OF- Urgh” Booster raised his arm and shot a blast of energy at the NIGHT suit, forcing it off balance. Jaime frowned, not totally sure what a ‘demagogue’ was. He shook his head. “Booster, I’m going to try something. Protect the crowd.” Booster nodded and a pair of insectoid wings folded out of Jaime’s back. He shot towards the NIGHT suit. Booster held his own taking down those parademons, sure, but protecting people? He tried to have a little faith. “Hey, overthrow-the-government guy,” Jaime cringed, part of him missing the flashy mercenaries of Palo Alto that chose their own names. “You’re going to need more than a punch to stop me.” { Jaime Reyes, performing diagnostics on enemy exoskeleton unit. Heavy ordinance fire is impossible without significant loss of life. } “I’ve got this.” Jaime said, a bit proud that Scarab was concerning himself with ‘loss of life’. “GLOAT ALL YOU WANT. YOU’RE NO MATCH FOR YOUR MASTER’S WEAPON!” An array of weapons unfolded from the frame. Micro missiles, a LightTech cannon, and a half dozen other implements Jaime couldn’t recognize. He was going to have some words with Ted Kord after all of this. Then, with a solitary click, the arsenal was unleashed at Jaime. { Jaime Reyes, kinetic barriers-! } Jaime launched into the air, moving end over end through the air to dodge an incoming explosive. He forced his way through the onslaught of deadly technology until he’d made it behind… Overthrow. “Booster, now!” Jaime turned his head and the gold-clad hero was already shooting missiles out of the area and zipping from point to point to move bystanders out of the way. The detonating explosives looked a little like fireworks going off above the crowd. “We’ve got this.” He reassured himself and Scarab in equal parts. He raised an arm towards Overthrow, where an extended weapon had left a gap in the armor. Jaime’s hand crackled with electrical energy as he fired. The bolt of electricity struck Overthrow and he crumpled like a doll onstage, paralyzed under the massive weight of the mech suit. Jaime descended to the ground next to Booster and scanned the crowd, looking for any places where one of Overthrow’s attacks might’ve gotten through. “See? I told you everything would work out.” “I guess you’re right on some things, Blooper Gold.” Jaime’s faceplate went up and he stifled a small laugh. Meanwhile, the chants from the crowd were louder than ever. “Blue and Gold! Blue and Gold!” The crowd parted as Ted Kord hurried towards the stage, flanked on either side by a musclebound bodyguard. “Jaime, Booster, that was amazing! How did you know an electrical pulse would short the neural interface?” Jaime and Booster glanced at each other, then back to Ted, silent. “...Right!” Ted’s cheerfulness was unshaken. “Fantastic demonstration. Truly, it blew me away.” Ted turned to address the crowd and pulled a small microphone from his jacket pocket. “Ladies and gentlemen, please give another round of applause to the Infinity Inc. sponsored Blue Beetle and Booster Gold for defeating-” Ted put his hand over the mic turned to Jaime. “What was that guy’s name?” “Ah- Over… throw?” “For defeating Overthrow!” Ted turned back again. “Seriously, Overthrow?” Jaime stood outside of Booster’s VIP suite. The events of the day meant the publicity tour was postponed and everyone was being put up at the ritziest hotel Los Angeles could offer. { Detecting inferior intelligence ahead. } “Scarab, that’s rude. And Booster isn’t that bad.” { The inferior intelligence holds the designation: Skeets. } “Be nice.” Jaime raised his fist and knocked on the carved cherrywood door. After a few seconds, the door swung open. Standing in the door frame, in a snug pair of Infinity Inc. pajamas was Booster. A large bruise was already forming on his cheek. “Hey Jaime. What’s up?” “Can I come in?” “Oh- yeah, of course.” Booster gestured inside, revealing the room’s king bed and raided mini fridge. The two moved inside and took a seat at the room’s small table. Jaime spotted Booster’s weird, golden drone thing pop up from the other side of the bed and hover forward. “*On behalf of Michael, I would like to extend my gratitude for formulating a plan of attack against the mech suited maniac despite the flaws in your hardware. I was glad to see that even when I was absent, there was someone there to give him sound strategy he is otherwise incapable of making on his own.” { Tactical analysis: the inferior intelligence is incapable of strategy. } Skeets let out an indignant beep. “Please tell the piece of space junk on your back that I understand its poorly constructed insults.” “Skeets!” Booster looked up, confused. “Michael.” Skeets replied. An uncomfortable silence drifted over the room for a few seconds until, “I don’t think your robot likes my robot.” Booster said. { Your robot? } Scarab buzzed in Jaime’s skull, annoyed. “Your robot?” Skeets asked. “Booster, the reason I came here to talk to you is because you were right.” “Right.” Booster nodded. “About what?” “You told me I needed to enjoy myself more and while I might not totally agree with-” Jaime gestured vaguely at Booster and Skeets. “You’re right. The past few months have sort of been terrifying nonstop - so uh - thanks for getting me to slow down. A little. “It’s like - I kind of got dropped into the deep end of all of this. I’ve been caught up in trying to figure out how to do this. I guess I missed out on the why. Hearing all of those people in the audience-” Jaime stopped, at a loss for words. “You found your calling?” Booster asked, raising an eyebrow. Jaime shrugged. “Yeah, I mean - I guess so. That’s why I just wanted to say thanks. Anyway, it’s late. I guess I’ll see you tomorrow?” “See you then, kid.” Booster smiled. “You’re still only a few years older than me!” Booster showed Jaime to the door, then sunk into the Egyptian silk on his bed. “He seems like a good kid.” Skeets drifted through the air above. “Despite the fact that you are only 5.3 years older than the kid, yes. Michael - did you take any of what he said to heart?” Booster sat up. “What do you mean?” “Michael - in your months of heroing, has your goal really been to land a sponsorship?” “Of course it has! We had a little bump in the road with the Soder Cola people, and now, we’ve finally made it.” “Have you not felt the joy and wonder of saving those bystanders’ lives? Booster Gold has become a hero, are you willing to throw that away to become a brand name?” Booster thought for a moment, then nodded emphatically. “Yep, that’s pretty schway!” Skeets’ internal processors froze at the sheer stupidity of his partner. Once they resumed computing, he decided to take a different tactic. “Booster Gold as a side act in the Kord Enterprises press tour. I had thought you were capable of more. Was I mistaken?” “Aw come on, Skeets. Don’t be like that! Ted’s done a lot for us. He patched up my costume, for one.” “You didn’t answer my question. Is Booster Gold a mascot for Kord Enterprises products?” “No, damn it!” Booster banged his hand against the nightstand and moved out of bed. “You know Skeets, I really hate it when you’re right, but you are right. I’m going to be the main attraction, without Ted Kord having to prop me up.” “I see.” Booster grabbed his suitcase and marched over to the door. “I’m going to go see Ted right now and hand him my resignation.” “I don’t think the hotel’s business center is still open.” “I’m not- fine! I’ll tell him I quit!” Booster pulled open the door, took a step out, and plummeted into a blinding light. Booster felt sick as he crashed to the ground. The bright light that had teleported him to this new location faded as quickly as it appeared, leaving him in darkness. “Hello?” His voice echoed around him, bouncing back to his ears as a slightly panicked tone. Last thing he remembered was going to break off his promotional deal with Ted Kord. Was this God’s way of punishing him for throwing all that money away? He resolved to kick Skeets’ metal ass as he felt a hand on his shoulder. “Michael.” Booster recognized the voice immediately. He turned to find his sister Michelle standing over him, her blue Supernova mask covering her face. “I’m sorry.” “Sorry?” Booster stood up, wobbling a bit from the teleportation. “What’re you-” A bulb switched on above him, illuminating the Carter siblings in a halo of light. He could hear footsteps coming towards them and placed himself in a defensive stance. “Michael Jon Carter. Born December 29th, 2442. Fled that time period on August 21, 2465 and arrived in 2019. Son to Jonar and Ellen Carter.” A man stepped into the light, his hair long and dark and his eyes glued to the folder he was leafing through. “Quite the rap sheet you’ve compiled here, Mikey.” “OK, chucklehead.” Booster attempted to sound confident, but was shaken by how much this man knew about him. As far as he knew, the only beings that were aware of his origins were Skeets and Michelle. “Who are you? How do you know so much about me? If you strong-armed Michelle into this-” “On the contrary,” the man responded, a pleasant smile formed on his face. “Michelle here was all too happy to help us out.” “And just what, exactly, did she help you with? Why am I here?” The man placed the folder somewhere out of the light and signaled to someone. The entire room lit up, revealing a massive space that was almost entirely empty besides two other individuals and the cracked Time Sphere Booster had traveled to the past in. The two men stared at Booster, their demeanors smug and satisfied. Their garbs seemed familiar to him, as one of the men was wearing an outfit similar to his own, complete with a yellow star in the middle of his chest. However, the costume was a silver alloy instead of gold, including the man’s face. The other man almost reminded Booster of his dead friend David Knight, Starman, especially the star rod-like device he twirled in his hands. But the outfit looked much more refined and updated, as realistic stars lined the flowing cape that trailed behind him and a crimson helmet covered his entire head, except the sneer on his face. The man with the folder pulled out a set of handcuffs and placed them on Booster. For a second, he flashed to the time when he was escorted from the football stadium by officers, the disgrace of his team and his family for betting on his own games. This time, Michelle was there to see it for herself. The man put a hand on Booster and led him towards the two men. “Michael Jon Carter, alias Booster Gold. I, Rip Hunter of the Time Masters, place you under arrest for altering the timeline and committing acts of chronal terrorism.”
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run. Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season. ATS = Against the spread DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: # 23 Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: # 5 Opp (TEN) Weighted DEF: #20 Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN): CB Adoree Jackson (Q) LeShaun Sims (Q) S Kenny Vaccaro (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): OT Chris Clark (Q) WR Will Fuller (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeAndre Hopkins (32%) Will Fuller (23%) Keke Coutee (14%) Duke Johnson (13%) Kenny Stills (12%) Jordan Akins (12%) Darren Fells (9%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Duke Johnson (52%, 7, 8) Carlos Hyde (51%, 16, 3) QB/WTE Breakdown Despite a massively disappointing loss to the Broncos last week, Deshaun Watson (auto-start) had another big fantasy outing in a failed comeback bid. He’s been an absolute stud this year, and that shouldn’t change this week. The Titans have a bottom-third pass DVOA and rank middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to QBs. Watson should be in all lineups again this week, and the struggles of the Texans defense play in his favor as it helps to ensure higher scoring games. Continue to ride him through the fantasy playoffs. Stud WR DeAndre Hopkins (auto-start) is the only trustworthy pass-catcher for fantasy purposes, and he remains an elite WR1. A return to action for Will Fuller (questionable) would likely be good news for the Texans offense, but fantasy owners will have a hard time trusting him as even when healthy he’s been extremely inconsistent this year. The Titans have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup, but Fuller would be a risky option if healthy. Consider him a boom-bust WR3 if he suits up. Assuming Fuller plays, Kenny Stills (likely volume downgrade) and Keke Coutee (already a drop) will go back to being low volume WR4s that shouldn’t be in lineups this week. Darren Fells and Jordin Akins have both shown flashes this year, but can’t be trusted considering they often alternate quality games with each other. They are simply boom or bust TD-dependent TE2s again this week, and shouldn’t be in lineups. RB Breakdown The Texans RBs were up to their usual tricks last week, with Carlos Hyde getting the majority of the carries and Duke Johnson snagging a few passes in a loss to the Broncos. The Titans are a tough matchup on the ground, with a 5th ranked DVOA, but have ceded the 11th most FPPG to RBs on the season. Hyde is completely TD-dependent, and he hasn’t scored enough of them to get to RB2 status. Johnson has been useful in the passing game but doesn’t get enough carries or red-zone opportunities to be a consistent option either. Consider both backs in the RB3 range, with Hyde more attractive in standard and Johnson more attractive in PPR. Both should likely be faded for more consistent options with higher ceilings outside of deeper leagues.
Titans
Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: # 27 Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: # 14 Opp (HOU) Weighted DEF: #30 Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): CB Gareon Conley (Q) LB Brennan Scarlett (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): RB Derrick Henry (Q, likely to play) WR Adam Humphries (D) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): A.J. Brown (22%) Jonnu Smith (14%) Corey Davis (13%) Tajae Sharpe (11%) Adam Humphries (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Derrick Henry (60%, 19, 1) Dion Lewis (39%, 10, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown The Titans took care of business against a reeling Raiders squad last week, and Ryan Tannehill (upgrade) was able to take advantage of the plus matchup with a huge fantasy day. Readers of DFA will now that we were fans of his last week, and we are back on the train again this week. The Texans have the 27th ranked pass DVOA and have given up the 6th most FPPG to QBs on the year. This game also has the highest projected point total of the week at 50, so there should be more than enough points to support Tannehill to a good stat line. While he isn’t as safe as the elite group, Tannehill should be considered a mid-range QB1 this week. Hopefully you trusted your gut with rookie A.J. Brown (upgrade) last week, as his 166 total yards and 2 TDs gave him the potential to win owners their weeks in the fantasy quarterfinals. It’s been an inconsistent season for the talented young receiver, but he has potential to finally string together two impressive performances in a row this week. The Texans give up the 15th most FPPG to WRs, but also have one of the worst overall pass defenses by DVOA metrics. If Tannehill continues to look Brown’s way for big plays, he needs to be in every lineup considering the ceiling he’s established. Consider Brown a borderline WR2 this week, just be aware he comes with more risk than other top-20 WRs. Corey Davis (drop) has taken a massive backseat to Brown this season, and shouldn’t be owned or started in any league at this point. Jonnu Smith took advantage of a plus matchup, snagging a couple of catches for 29 yards and a TD last week. Houston has given up the 11th most FPPG to TEs this year, but Smith hasn’t gotten the target share necessary to become a trustworthy start at this point. Consider him an intriguing TE2 streamer, but know his floor is a goose-egg. Consider other options before rolling the dice with Smith. RB Breakdown The Derrick Henry (auto-start) train continued on full steam last week, as he piled up 100+ yards and 2 TDs in the win over Oakland. Houston is less vulnerable to the run than the pass (by DVOA), but have given up the 5th most FPPG to RBs on the year. Henry is a set and forget RB1 at this point, and should be in all lineups. He is listed questionable, but both he and his head coach fully expect him to play near his normal allotment of snaps. His backup, Dion Lewis, hasn’t gotten many touches this year, and has zero standalone value at this point. He is a possible stash for nervous owners of Henry, however. Score Prediction: Titans 27, Texans 24
Opp (CAR) Pass DVOA: # 8 Opp (CAR) Run DVOA: # 32 Opp (CAR) Weighted DEF: #25 Injuries to Watch DEF (CAR): DE Mario Addison (Q) DT Gerald McCoy (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (SEA): OL Duane Brown (Q) TE Luke Willson (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.K. Metcalf (22%) Tyler Lockett (20%) Chris Carson (10%) David Moore (8%) Josh Gordon (8%) Malik Turner (6%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Chris Carson (82%, 18, 4) C.J. Prosise (16%, 1, 0) Rashaad Penny (1%, 1, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown The Seahawks laid an egg last week in a loss to a resurgent Rams squad. Russell Wilson had an off game, and is actually riding a 3-game stretch of poor fantasy lines. This week he’ll face a Panthers defense that has been stout against the pass - 8th ranked pass DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs. Wilson still ranks in the top-5 QBs in fantasy on the year, and has the potential to blow up on any given week, so it’s extremely tough to recommend benching him. However, with the Seahawks as big favorites, and the Panthers extremely vulnerable to the run, Wilson may not be needed for a big week. Consider him a mid-range QB1, and only consider another option if that alternative is an elite QB1 or a high-end QB1 with a great matchup. Perhaps not coincidentally, Wilson’s recent rough stretch has coincided with Tyler Lockett (upgrade) struggling with a shin injury he picked up in Week 10, as the talented slot receiver hasn’t gone over 50 yards since Week 9. Lockett is apparently “rarin to go” this week, according to head coach Pete Carroll, so perhaps both he and Wilson are coming for a big bounce-back game. The same concern exists for Lockett around potential game-script, but the Panthers yield the 7th most FPPG to WRs and have given up the third most receiving yards to WRs this year. Consider him on the WR2/3 borderline based on the matchup. D.K. Metcalf (downgrade volume) hasn’t exactly exploded during Lockett’s down weeks, but he continues to make a few “wow” plays each week. Metcalf is not expected to receive shadow coverage from James Bradberry, and the previously mentioned plus matchup applies to DK as well, but the lack of volume in this run-heavy attack makes him tough to count on. He should be viewed as a boom-bust WR3 in standard leagues, and more of a WR3/4 in PPR leagues. TE Jacob Hollister (downgrade) has managed to establish good chemistry with Wilson, but he too has struggled with volume. The Panthers have given up the 2nd fewest FPPG to TEs, and Hollister is relatively TD-dependent, but he remains on the TE1/2 borderline due to his potential for a few high percentage looks each week. RB Breakdown The entire offense for Seattle struggled last week, but Chris Carson (upgrade) was able to at least salvage his day by nearing 100 total yards and catching a few passes. With the news that Rashaad Penny will have season ending knee surgery, his stock is on the rise as well. The Panthers are one of the cushiest matchups for RBs - giving up the most FPPG to the position - so Carson is all systems go this week. Consider him a high-end RB1 this week based on the plus matchup and his likely increased workload. His new backups will likely only snag a couple of touches, and are not fantasy relevant at this point.
Panthers
Opp (SEA) Pass DVOA: # 15 Opp (SEA) Run DVOA: # 22 Opp (SEA) Weighted DEF: #16 Injuries to Watch DEF (SEA): DE Jadaveon Clowney (Q) CB Shaquill Griffin (Q) LB Mychal Kendricks (Q) DE Ziggy Ansah (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (CAR): OL Greg Little (Q) TE Greg Olsen (OUT) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Moore (25%) Christian McCaffrey (23%) Greg Olsen (15%) Curtis Samuel (14%) Ian Thomas (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Christian McCaffrey (99%, 22, 12) Reggie Bonnafon (3%, 1, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown It looks like Kyle Allen (2QB only) will hold onto the starting job another week, but his grasp on the job is loosening by the week. The Panthers are playing for nothing more than pride at this point, and it appears clear that Allen isn’t the QB of the future, so it wouldn’t be surprising for them to bench him in one of their remaining games. Still, despite the losing skid, Allen has put up decent numbers for fantasy in his past two games, and remains a potential streamer in 2 QB leagues. The Seahawks are a decent matchup - ranking 15th by pass DVOA and giving up the 16th most FPPG to QBs. Consider Allen a decent QB2, but beware his floor is extremely low as he could throw a few early interceptions and find himself benched or at the minimum simply handing off to his RBs to run out the clock on the game, and Carolina’s season as well. While Allen’s deep ball struggles have negatively impacted both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel this year, the former has been able to earn WR1 status by consistently churning out high catch and yardage totals. Samuel, who is more reliant on big plays, has been a useable asset but is more in the WR3 range due to his inconsistent production. The Seahawks have given up the 14th most FPPG to WRs this year and have the 15th best pass DVOA, so the matchup is neither a plus nor a negative. Moore will continue to be a solid WR1, especially in PPR, whereas Samuel is a boom-bust WR3/4 given his lack of accurate targets. Greg Olsen, who missed last week, has been ruled out for another game. In his place, Ian Thomas (upgrade volume) will get another start, and proved last week he can be a quality streamer. Consider him a low-end TE1 with a solid floor. RB Breakdown Its a lost season for the Panthers, but Christian McCaffrey (auto-start) has absolutely crushed from a fantasy perspective. The Seahawks are not an intimidating matchup - 22nd ranked rush DVOA and 15th fewest FPPG allowed to RBs - so CMC will yet again be one of the highest ranked RBs this week. Keep him locked into your lineups, obviously. Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Panthers 20
Opp (KC) Pass DVOA: #6 Opp (KC) Run DVOA: #30 Opp (KC) Weighted DEF: #13 Injuries to Watch DEF (KC): DE Frank Clark (Q) CB Rashad Fenton (OUT) CB Morris Claiborne (OUT) Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): TE Noah Fant (Q) T Ja’Wuan James (OUT) G Ron Leary (OUT) WR Juwann Winfree (OUT) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Courtland Sutton (26%) Noah Fant (19%) Tim Patrick (13%) Jeff Heuerman (11%) Phillip Lindsay (7%) Royce Freeman (7%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Phillip Lindsay (53%, 18, 2) Royce Freeman (46%, 10, 2) Devontae Booker (3%, 2, 2) QB/WTE Breakdown A new era has begun in Denver, and it’s off to a smashing start. Drew Lock (downgrade) has exceeded the expectations of even the biggest truthers, going 2-0 in his first two NFL starts. Coming off a surprise blowout victory on the road against the Texans, Sundays match up against AFC West rival Kansas City smells like a hangover defeat. Just like Houston losing to Denver last week after beating New England, or how the Rams have looked all of 2019 after losing in the Super Bowl, the hangover after a big win (or loss) is very much real. I digress; Lock faces a very sturdy secondary in the Chiefs this week - they cede 18.4 FPPG to QBs and only 17.4 to WRs - and considering that Kansas City now has two games of tape on the young signal caller, plus the game is on the road, Lock shouldn’t be considered in all but the deepest of formats. Lock and third year breakout Courtland Sutton (downgrade) already look to have a great connection, and Sutton has made some downright silly catches in his two games with the rookie. The good news, Lock’s average of 8.05 yards per attempt is higher than any Broncos QB since John Elway joined the front office in 2011 (Rotoworld). Sutton is going to be fed fantasy friendly targets the rest of the way, and makes for a very appealing target in fantasy drafts next year. The bad news, Kansas City only allows explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on 8% of snaps, good for 12th best in the league (sharpfootballstats.com). Still, Sutton’s contested catch ability, target share, and penchant for big plays should keep in the WR2 ranks. Just know it’s a tough matchup. We were clearly off on Noah Fant last week, as he exploded for a 4-113-1 receiving line on only 4 targets. His day might have been even bigger had he not left early due to injury. He’s listed as questionable as of Friday, so keep an eye on his injury status. The volume and injuries are still concerning, but his big play ability make him a boom-or-bust TE2 if he is able to suit up - the matchup is exploitable, KC surrenders 8.2 FPPG to TEs. RB Breakdown The backfield for the Broncos continues to be a RBBC in terms of snap %, but touches have been far from even over the last four weeks. Phillip Lindsay (upgrade) has dominated carries as of late, and there’s no reason to expect that to change. That being said, neither back seems to hold a clear role (early down/passing back), rather, both perform as workhorses when they are on the field. That may mean Royce Freeman (upgrade) may begin to see similar touches to Lindsay like we saw early season, but it’s impossible to predict. On tap is venerable defense that ranks 30th in Run DVOA. Game-script could be an issue, but both backs are involved in the passing game, so neither should be phased out. Get Lindsay active as an RB2, while Freeman is a low-end flex play - KC hemorrhages 23.9 FPPG to RBs.
Chiefs
Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #12 Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #15 Opp (DEN) Weighted DEF: #10 Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): DE Adam Gotsis (OUT) ILB Joe Jones (Q) DE DeMarcus Walker (OUT) Injuries to Watch OFF (KC): RB Damien Williams (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Tyreek Hill (25%) Travis Kelce (24%) Sammy Watkins (18%) LeSean McCoy (10%) Damien Williams (7%) Demarcus Robinson (6%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Spencer Ware (40%, 6, 2) LeSean McCoy (31%, 12, 3) Darwin Thompson (27%, 8, 5) QB/WTE Breakdown Last year’s MVP, Patrick Mahomes (upgrade), has looked haggard since returning from his ankle injury. He picked up a hand injury in the win against New England, but finished the game, throwing for 283-yards, and a touchdown and interception. Those numbers aren’t bad by any means, but it’s a far cry from what we’ve come to expect from the Fantasy stalwart. Especially after watching Deshaun Watson slice up the Patriots defense like Thanksgiving turkey. The matchup doesn’t get any softer this week, Denver isn’t the elite defense they once were, but they aren’t slouches - ranking 10th in Weighted Defense DVOA - ceding 15 FPPG to QBs and 20.4 to WRs. However, Kansas City back at Arrowhead against a divisional foe has the makings of a boat race for the home team. The spread reflects that. Get Mahomes fired up top-5 QB1, he’s due for a massive performance. It doesn’t appear that Chris Harris Jr. will be asked to cover the slot, so Tyreek Hill (upgrade) won’t be shadowed. Even if he does face plenty of Harris, he’s only ranked the No. 37 CB by PFF for 2019, so the matchup is exploitable. Hill is an every week WR1. Sammy Watkins continues to disappoint since his Week 2 explosion, and can’t be counted on as anything more than a WR3/4. The auxiliary receivers are no more than dart throws. Demarcus Robinson has worked well ahead of rookie Mecole Hardman. Neither can be counted on. Travis Kelce draws the toughest matchup of the passing game, as Denver’s secondary boasts two of the best safeties in football - Justin Simmons (PFF No. 1) and Kareem Jackson (PPF No. 11). You aren’t sitting “Zeus”, but keep expectations in check. RB Breakdown With the return of Damien Williams (downgrade) to the fold, and the signing of Spencer Ware, the Kansas City backfield has become one to avoid. LeSean McCoy and rookie Darwin Thompson will mix in as well, making this a four-headed RBBC. It’s nightmare fuel for fantasy managers. It’s not guaranteed that Williams makes it back this week, but it seems to be trending in that direction. Even if Williams sits, it’s anyone’s guess who of the remaining backs makes the most of their volume. McCoy seems the best bet to handle goal line carries, but it seems prudent to pursue other options at running back if you have them. DEN cedes 17.1 FPPG to RBs. Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Broncos 20
Opp (NYG) Pass DVOA: #28 Opp (NYG) Run DVOA: #12 Opp (NYG) Weighted DEF: #22 Injuries to Watch DEF (NYG): CB Janoris Jenkins (Q) CB Corey Ballentine (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): WR Allen Hurns (Q) WR DeVante Parker (Q) WR Albert Wilson (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Preston Williams (25%) DeVante Parker (21%) Mike Gesicki (16%) Allen Hurns (14%) Albert Wilson (11%) Patrick Laird (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Patrick Laird (82%, 19, 5) Myles Gaskin (18%, 5, 2) QB/WTE Breakdown The Dolphins will continue to ride the ageless Ryan Fitzpatrick (upgrade) for at least another week, despite a lost season that is probably more of a success if they lose all their remaining games than win them (draft). Fitz wasn’t great last week, as Miami had to settle for FGs rather than TDs on every scoring drive they had, but he remains a serviceable streamer. The Giants are a plus matchup this week - 28th ranked pass DVOA and 7th most FPPG to QBs- so owners in need of a QB can look his way. His floor is lower than most, and his unpredictability make him a scary option for playoff teams, but the matchup and the need for high volume throwing keep him afloat. The biggest issue this week is the availability of his passing game weapons as multiple WRs are already ruled out or at least questionable, so monitor the reports closely. If he has his full arsenal, Fitz is a borderline QB1 this week. If not, consider him more of a QB2 streamer. Man are the Dolphins banged up at receiver. Both Devante Parker (possible upgrade) and Albert Wilson are listed as questionable to play, but both are tentatively looking promising for Sunday’s matchup. If Parker is able to play, he would be a WR2/3 in a good matchup - the Giants cede the 6th most FPPG to WRs - so monitor reports closely on him. Wilson would be a much riskier proposal, and would be merely a WR4 if he is able to suit up. Allen Hurns would only be in the WR3/4 streaming range if both Parker and Wilson sit out, and the same can be said for surprise Week 14 standout Isaiah Ford. Only Parker is a realistic starting option for fantasy owners in the throws of playoffs at this point. Mike Gesicki abruptly fell off a cliff last week, finishing with 6 yards on one catch (5 targets). He was coming off back-to-back productive weeks, but isn’t a trustworthy option at this point. Consider him a risky TE2, but one that has some upside if any of the receivers miss time due to injury. RB Breakdown Rookie Patrick Laird (volume upgrade) somehow finds himself with a starting spot, albeit on one of the worst teams in the NFL, and needs to be taken seriously as a fantasy asset down the stretch. He got 19 total touches last week, and is poised to see a similar workload again in Week 15. The Giants are a decent matchup - 12th ranked DVOA and 14th most FPPG to RBs - so the opponent doesn’t play a big factor in his outlook. However, with the Giants likely to be a close matchup for the Dolphins, Laird may actually have some scoring opportunities and should get plenty of carries if the score is competitive in the second half. Consider Laird a back-end RB2 at this point, and give him a look if you are thin at the position. Just don’t get your hopes too high.
Giants
Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32 Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #29 Opp (MIA) Weighted DEF: #32 Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): CB Nik Needham (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (NYG): QB Daniel Jones (OUT) OL Kevin Zeitler (Q) TE Rhett Ellison (Q) TE Evan Engram (Q) WR Golden Tate (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darius Slayton (23%) Sterling Shepard (21%) Evan Engram (20%) Golden Tate (18%) Saquon Barkley (15%) Kaden Smith (14%) Bennie Fowler (11%) Rhett Ellison (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Saquon Barkley (94%, 20, 4) Elijhaa Penny (8%, 0, 0) Javorius Allen (6%, 0, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown The Giants will likely be forced to start Eli Manning (upgrade 2QB) again this week, as Daniel Jones (likely out) is still nursing an ankle injury heading into Week 15. Manning was able to move the offense decently well against the Eagles last week, but is unlikely to be given a high volume of passing even in a game against the Dolphins. Expect him to force feed the RBs, and be called upon for a heavy dose of short passing. The Dolphins are one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL - 32nd ranked pass DVOA and 4th most FPPG to QBs - so the matchup offers some hope for those looking to stream. Consider Manning a mid-range QB2 that could be used in a pinch, but should not be in playoff lineups unless owners are desperate. The Giants passing attack warrants a closer look with Manning under center again this week. Manning’s target spread last week was as follows: Darius Slayton (8) Sterling Shepard (7) Golden Tate (5) Kaden Smith (5) Saquon Barkley (4). Shepard and Tate have unfortunately basically cancelled each other out now that they are both healthy and playing, making each a risky WR3 proposition even in a great matchup. Slayton (upgrade), however, clearly enjoyed catching passes from Manning last week, and his monster 150+ and 2 TD performance means he is on the WR2/3 borderline for this week. The Dolphins have given up the fourth most FPPG to WRs, so this is a matchup to exploit for Slayton, and to a less reliable extent, Tate and Shepard. If Evan Engram (possible upgrade) is active, make sure he is in your lineup. If he isn’t, then ignore the position on this team. RB Breakdown It’s been a tough year for those who selected Saquon Barkley (upgrade) as a top-3 pick, but this week offers major bounce-back potential. The Dolphins are a plus matchup - 29th ranked rush DVOA and 7th most FPPG allowed to RBs - so Barkley should finally find some running lanes. Consider him a solid RB1 this week, and the presence of Eli Manning, who likes to check down to his RBs, is a further upgrade to Barkley’s floor. Get him in your lineups. Score Prediction: Giants 27, Dolphins 24
Opp (PIT) Pass DVOA: #4 Opp (PIT) Run DVOA: #4 Opp (PIT) Weighted DEF: #3 Injuries to Watch DEF (PIT): None Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OT Ty Nsekhe (OUT) OG Jon Feliciano (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): John Brown (26%) Cole Beasley (19%) Devin Singletary (14%) Isaiah McKenzie (13%) Dawson Knox (11%) Robert Foster (6%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devin Singletary (81%, 21, 8) Frank Gore (19%, 4, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown The Bills put up an admirable battle against BAL last week, before ultimately falling 24-17. Josh Allen (downgrade) scored his second-lowest fantasy point total of the year, saving his day from an absolute bust by throwing a touchdown and 2 point conversation late in the comeback bid. It doesn’t get easier this week, the Pittsburgh defense has been lights out recently, ranking No. 4 in Weighted Defense DVOA. They also boast the No. 3 Pass DVOA, and only cede 14.6 FPPG to QBs, and 20.5 to WRs. Allen should receive QB1 consideration every week due to his rushing floor, but the tough matchup, and his recent performance, suggest he may not be as matchup proof as once thought. This projects as a floor week for the young signal caller, and owners are advised to go elsewhere if possible. Along those same lines, both John Brown (downgrade) and Cole Beasley (downgrade) make for tough starts. Tyler Boyd (5-101-1 in Week 12) is the only wideout to clear 100-yards on the Steelers this season (Rotoworld). Both Brown and Beasley should be considered low-floor WR3’s in the difficult matchup. Dawson Knox has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but remains too inconsistent to be trusted during the apex of the season. He's not an option. RB Breakdown Buffalo has fully committed to their stud rookie running back, Devin Singletary (auto-start), and it’s paying off in the box score; he’s produced over 100-yards from scrimmage in three straight. He seems a lock to approach 20+ touches on a weekly basis, and he’s firmly sitting in must-start territory. The matchup isn’t good - PIT allows only 15 FPPG to RBs - however, the volume and the reliance of BUF on Singletary to move the ball keeps him an RB2.
Steelers
Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #5 Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #17 Opp (BUF) Weighted DEF: #5 Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): DT Corey Liuget (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (PIT): WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (OUT) RB James Conner (Q) TE Vance McDonald (OUT) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jaylen Samuels (18%) James Washington (17%) Diontae Johnson (17%) Vance McDonald (14%) JuJu Smith-Schuster (12%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Jaylen Samuels (47%, 9, 2) Benny Snell (40%, 16, 0) Kerrith Whyte (13%, 6, 1) Trey Edmunds (5%, 1, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown The Steelers continue to find ways to win, albeit in a somewhat ugly manner. The offense has looked anemic all year, and that hasn’t changed with Devlin Hodges under center. He’s simply not be trusted to sling the ball, attempting just 20, 21 and 19 passes in his three starts. The formula to winning for the Terrible Towel’s, has been a strong defense and ground attack, while limiting their inexperienced play caller’s mistakes. “Duck” isn’t an option in any format, especially going against one of the better secondaries in the league. JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) has been ruled out again, leaving the usual suspects of James Washington (downgrade) and Diontae Johnson (downgrade) to man the fort. Washington finally bottomed out on limited touches last week, but secured all his targets producing a 4-33-0 receiving line. Johnson was the one to ball out last week, but it seemed more like a fluke than a repeatable performance. Both wideouts have demonstrated a very low floor if they fail to secure a deep ball, and given the lack of volume in this passing game, it’s more likely than not they don’t catch one. To add to that, BUF cedes explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on just 5% of plays, good for second best in the NFL. All of this is to say, the Steelers passing game doesn’t seem like a good bet this week - BUF gives up just 13.7 FPPG to QBs and 16.8 to WRs. RB Breakdown James Conner (upgrade) is tentatively expected to suit up this week after missing an extended chunk of time. BUF boasts a much worse Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, setting up Conner to receive plenty of work. There are questions regarding volume in his first week back, but remember that he played 83% of the teams snaps before getting hurt (Rotoworld). Treat him as an upside RB2 if he is active - BUF cedes 17.7 FPPG to RBs. If he is unable to go, we should see a mix of Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels again, with Snell dominating early down and Samuels featured in the passing game. Snell is the preferred play if Conner is inactive, given the nature of the matchup - Pittsburgh’s gameplan should revolve around running the ball right down Buffalo’s throat. Score Prediction: Bills 17, Steelers 13
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