Sorry for the delay in analysing the results. I conducted a hurried prediction thread and survey just before kickoff to look at who the real experts were when it came to predicting the 2019 season. Table 1: NRL.com, Foxsports, gambling outlets and /NRL users compared by giving one point for each correctly predicted top 8 team. Table 2: /NRL users compared including premiers, spoon, Dally M and rookie of the year - one point per correct prediction. Note: NaconBipples and hargreaves1690 both submitted late entries.
So this year I wanted to try something, I wanted to see if there was a way to develop a system for betting on NRL games that would return a profit. I wanted it to become more about investing rather than gambling. I knew from the start that it would be difficult, I mean betting agencies are not there to lose money, so obviously they put some effort to make sure nobody makes money out of them right? Anyway, all I did was basically just keep track of betting odds throughout the season, put it all in a spreadsheet put in all the match results throughout the season to see if there was a pattern emerging. My aim was to bet completely on logic and a system, without any predicting necessary. I tested 18 different combinations to see if anything would give me the return I was looking for. Some examples of what I tested were - - Home and Away Teams - Home and Away Teams 1-12, 13+ - Favourites and Outsiders - Favourites and Outsiders 1-12, 13+ - Higher Table Position - Lower Table Position - u/Tunza powerplay %'s (using his ones as favourites) I also took into account margins, to see if favourites could beat the spread, or outsiders could get within. Well, here are my results: Betting companies are smart and there does not seem to be a way to develop a system to provide a solid return (ouch I know) In the end only 4 out of the 18 combinations were able to return a profit - Away Teams 1-12: Betting $1 on every game (you would bet $192 and walk away with $197.60 - a ROI of 2.92%) - Favourites: Betting $1 on every game (total bet would be $188 with a return of $188.04 - a ROI of 0.02%) - Outsiders 1-12: Betting $1 on every game (you would bet $188 and walk away with $191.15 - a ROI of 1.62%) - Favourites 13+: Betting $1 on every game (you would bet $188 and walk away with $188.54 - a ROI of 0.29%) The other 14 betting combinations all lost money. And the returns above are nothing exciting to write home about. Unfortunately my hope to beat the betting agencies and be able to reliably win some money did not come to fruition, but it was interesting to watch anyway. And it does make me all the more impressed by the maths people at these betting agencies, they are impressive. If anyone is interested in the spreadsheet, I am more than happy to share it, just ask.
r/NRL HiveMind was Smarter than u/Tunza’s Predictaroony !!! VICTORY is OURS
Round 25 Well it came down to the result of the final game , but in the end the NRL Hivemind was Smarter than than u/Tunza’s Predictaroony at predicting NRL results .. Hivemind wins by 2 points! The Machines are not yet ready to enslave us all! 1. South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters SportsBet Roosters by 4, Hive Roosters by 7 , Mods Roosters by 11, Tunza Roosters by 12 Result Rabbitohs by 6. Hive +5 NRL Hivemind and u/Tunza’s Predictaroony currently even score Hivemind +4 lead over Mods across this round 2. Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles SportsBet Parramatta by 4, Mods & Hive (Draw) , Tunza Manly by 4 Result Eels by 16. Hive +4 NRL Hivemind leads u/Tunza’s Predictaroony by +4 points Hivemind +4 lead over ModMind across this round 3. Melbourne Storm vs North Qld Cowboys SportsBet Melbourne by 14.5, Tunza Melbourne by 20, Mods & Hive Melbourne by 23 Result Storm by 8.u/Tunza +3 NRL Hivemind +1 point lead over u/Tunza’s Predictaroony Hivemind +4 lead over ModMind across this round 4. Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors SportsBet Canberra by 10, Tunza Canberra by 16, Hive Canberra by 17, Mods Canberra by 23 Result Warriors by 4. u/Tunza +1 NRL and Tunza’s Predictaroony EQUAL Score +6 Hivemind over ModMind . +10 point lead NRL Hivemind over Mods across this round 5. Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos Hive & Tunza Brisbane by 2, SportsBet Brisbane by 4.5, Mods Brisbane by 7 Result Bulldogs by 16 no change, NRL and Tunza remain equal +5 Hivemind over ModMind. +15 point lead NRL Hivemind over ModMind 6. Gold Coast Titans vs StGeorge Illawarra SportsBet Dragons by 2.5, Hive Dragons by 5, Mods and Tunza Dragons by 8 Result Dragons by 8. + 3 Tunza over Hive, and ModMind over Hive Tunza Predictaroony +3 lead over Hive +12 NRL lead over ModMind 7. Wests Tigers vs Cronulla Sharks Mods and Tunza Tigers by 1, Hive Sharks by 1, SportsBet Sharks by 2 Result Sharks by 17. +3 Hivemind over Mods and Tunza’s Predictaroony Hive and NRL equal +15 NRL Hivemind’s lead over ModMind 8. Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Hive Panthers by 4, SportsBet Panthers by 2.5, Tunza Panthers by 2, Mods Knights by 3 Result Panthers by 44. +2 Hivemind over Predictaroony , +7 Hivemind over ModMind NRL Hivemind DEFEATS Tunza’s Predictaroony by 2 points And the ModMind by 22
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping. I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.
Performance so far this year If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game: Best Value You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 39.4%;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6)
$3.20
WIN
$10.00
$32.00
$122.00
Bulldogs (7)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$112.00
Eels (7)
$2.35
WIN
$10.00
$23.50
$125.50
Dragons (8)
$1.81
WIN
$10.00
$18.10
$133.60
Panthers (9)
$1.82
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Bulldogs (10)
$2.00
WIN
$10.00
$20.00
$133.60
Warriors (10)
$1.75
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Rabbitohs (10)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$137.60
Broncos (11)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$151.60
Storm (11)
$1.47
LOSE
$10.00
$141.60
Raiders (12)
$1.73
WIN
$10.00
$17.30
$148.90
Knights (12)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$138.90
Cowboys (13)
$2.05
WIN
$10.00
$20.50
$149.40
Knights (14)
$3.20
LOSE
$10.00
$139.40
Worst Value You would have an ROI of -62.7% ;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6)
$2.55
LOSE
10
$90.00
Broncos (6)
$2.55
WIN
10
$25.50
$105.50
Panthers (7)
$1.49
LOSE
10
$95.50
Knights (7)
$2.60
WIN
10
$26.00
$111.50
Sea Eagles (8)
$1.60
LOSE
10
$101.50
Cowboys (8)
$1.42
LOSE
10
$91.50
Eels (9)
$2.20
LOSE
10
$81.50
Sea Eagles (10)
$2.58
WIN
10
$25.80
$97.30
Raiders (11)
$3.25
LOSE
10
$87.30
Cowboys (11)
$2.05
LOSE
10
$77.30
Eels (12)
$2.70
LOSE
10
$67.30
Titans (12)
$3.60
LOSE
10
$57.30
Tigers (13)
$1.80
LOSE
10
$47.30
Sea Eagles (14)
$2.30
LOSE
10
$37.30
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average at a neutral venue. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Dragons
8.28
2
Rabbitohs
7.61
3
Panthers
7.54
4
Sharks
4.57
5
Storm
3.95
6
Roosters
1.23
7
Raiders
0.30
8
Bulldogs
-0.09
9
Warriors
-0.91
10
Tigers
-1.18
11
Cowboys
-1.91
12
Broncos
-3.09
13
Knights
-5.22
14
Sea Eagles
-6.42
15
Titans
-6.98
16
Eels
-7.86
Last Week Last week I had the Knights as best value and Sea Eagles as my worst value team. Despite not winning; the Knights certainly had value at $3.20 and I would take that same bet again without hesitating (spoiler; I do take the Knights again this week), they also healthily covered their line of +8. Manly were also very heavily overvalued; getting trampled by the Warriors. I’m doing a very good job of telling everyone where not to put their money, while not doing a fantastic job of actually winning money in this thread, but one of the keys to sports gambling is; if you can’t pick the losers, you’ll never be able to pick the winners. Best Value Newcastle Knights Almost $4 odds for this Knights team is ludicrous; and the line is a very safe bet. They are a much better team than $4; their halves improve every week, and their forwards have improved out of sight this year. While it’s not as evident in the NRL, continuity is an undervalued part of team evaluation, and since Pearce has been injured the Knights have had some decent continuity in their team selections, and as a result there is a noticeable improvement in their performances. Odds: $3.82 Home V Storm; Line: +10.5 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs The Bulldogs are unlucky; both through their schedule and their close losses, and while they haven’t had much head-to-head value this year; they have had outstanding value in the line markets. Despite their poor value so far; $1.69 against the Titans is outstanding value, so long as their mental resilience holds and they continue to show up. Odds: $1.69 Home V Titans; Line: -2.5
Worst Value Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles Playing the best team in the competition away; after routinely underperforming this year, I would not touch Manly at this price or line. The public seem to have a little bit of fatigue with this Dragons team, and while they have slowed; their schedule has been extremely difficult, and I expect them to have a strong finish to the season. Odds: $3.25 Away @ Dragons; Line: +8.5 Brisbane Broncos The Broncos have been lucky to win as many games as they have; and now their schedule gets difficult. They also have made some perplexing personnel decisions so far this season, and last week the refereeing of their game against the Storm stole some media attention away from just how poor their defence and overall performance was. I don’t expect the Broncos to be playing finals this year. Odds: $2.50 Away @ Sharks; Line: +5.5 Also; sorry for not answering many questions in the thread last week – I definitely have time this week so ask away!
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping. I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.
Performance so far this year Although we are working off a very small sample, so far this year, If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game: Best Value You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 17.6%; hitting on 62.5% of bets with combined odds of $2.25 Worst Value You would have an ROI of -2.7% ; hitting on 37.5% of bets at with combined odds of $2.12
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average at a neutral venue. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
Change
1
Dragons
14.04
--
2
Rabbitohs
10.13
+1
3
Storm
8.32
-1
4
Roosters
3.14
+5
5
Panthers
1.85
--
6
Sharks
0.98
+4
7
Warriors
0.60
-3
8
Bulldogs
0.04
--
9
Raiders
-1.18
-3
10
Tigers
-2.48
+1
11
Broncos
-3.09
-4
12
Cowboys
-4.95
--
13
Eels
-5.02
--
14
Knights
-5.26
--
15
Sea Eagles
-8.27
+1
16
Titans
-8.29
-1
Sorry for the lateness this week, I’m pretty full on with my NBA gambling at the moment, but once the finals have finished I’ll get back to providing some solid analysis Best Value Brisbane Broncos This Broncos played their worst game of the season last week and The Roosters played their best game of the season last week. One singular performance does not truly predict future performance, and rather their season is much more of a useful predictive tool. This Broncos team at $2.40 at Home to the Roosters is quality value Odds: $2.40 Home V Roosters; Line: +4.5
Melbourne Storm Cameron Smith is an unbelievable player, however being given $1.47 and -6 at home against the Sea Eagles is supreme value. I’ve said it time and time again, but we over-value the importance of individual players in what is a largely a game won by overall team performance. I think we need to value team constructs with much more importance - style of play, decision making, coaching, fitness ect and not the individual performances of player x, even if player x is in by my own subjective opinion the best player in the NRL. Odds: $1.47 Home V Sea Eagles; Line: -6.0
Worst Value Canberra Raiders Even $3.25 wouldn’t get me to bite on this Raiders team Odds: $3.25 Away @ Dragons; Line: +9.5
North Queensland Cowboys I have no idea what it will take for everyone to realise that this Cowboys team isn’t good and for them to be valued properly. Everything they do is predictable: if they’re in their own half they will run forwards for the first 3 tackles (one or two passes away from the ruck) then on the 4th play they will run second man block-sweep (normally Morgan will get tackled because everyone knows what’s happening) then 5th kick. If they’re at the line it will be: forward centre it, sweep play to the left, forward centre it, sweep play to the right, then kick. Adding to this; their outside backs have no ability to bend the defensive line, they don’t offload (one of the most efficient things you can do on an NRL field) and Thurston dominates the ball in attack to the team’s detriment; he holds the ball, slows the play down and lets defenders close his passing lanes without the required explosion to take advantage of a rushing defence. In summary: The Cowboys play style is outdated and over the last 3 years coaches have installed the necessary defensive schemes to render this kind of attack ineffective. Odds: $2.05 Home V Rabbitohs; Line:+2.5
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping. I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.
Performance so far this year Although we are working off a very small sample, so far this year, If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game: Best Value You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 38.90%;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6)
$3.20
WIN
10
$32.00
$122.00
Bulldogs (7)
$2.70
LOSE
10
$112.00
Eels (7)
$2.35
WIN
10
$23.50
$125.50
Dragons (8)
$1.81
WIN
10
$18.10
$133.60
Panthers (9)
$1.82
LOSE
10
$123.60
Bulldogs (10)
$2.00
WIN
10
$20.00
$133.60
Warriors (10)
$1.75
LOSE
10
$123.60
Rabbitohs (10)
$2.40
WIN
10
$24.00
$137.60
Broncos (11)
$2.40
WIN
10
$24.00
$151.60
Storm (11)
$1.47
LOSE
10
$141.60
Raiders (12)
$1.73
WIN
10
$17.30
$148.90
Knights (12)
$2.70
LOSE
10
$138.90
Worst Value You would have an ROI of -42.7% ;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6)
$2.55
LOSE
$10.00
$90.00
Broncos (6)
$2.55
WIN
$10.00
$25.50
$105.50
Panthers (7)
$1.49
LOSE
$10.00
$95.50
Knights (7)
$2.60
WIN
$10.00
$26.00
$111.50
Sea Eagles (8)
$1.60
LOSE
$10.00
$101.50
Cowboys (8)
$1.42
LOSE
$10.00
$91.50
Eels (9)
$2.20
LOSE
$10.00
$81.50
Sea Eagles (10)
$2.58
WIN
$10.00
$25.80
$97.30
Raiders (11)
$3.25
LOSE
$10.00
$87.30
Cowboys (11)
$2.05
LOSE
$10.00
$77.30
Eels (12)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$67.30
Titans (12)
$3.60
LOSE
$10.00
$57.30
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average at a neutral venue. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
Change
1
Dragons
9.38
--
2
Rabbitohs
8.19
--
3
Panthers
7.12
+1
4
Sharks
4.27
+2
5
Roosters
2.33
--
6
Storm
2.00
-3
7
Raiders
0.07
--
8
Bulldogs
0.01
+1
9
Broncos
-1.93
+1
10
Tigers
-2.02
+1
11
Cowboys
-2.22
+2
12
Warriors
-2.70
-4
13
Sea Eagles
-3.13
-1
14
Eels
-5.43
--
15
Titans
-9.42
+1
16
Knights
-10.00
-1
Last Week Last week I had the Raiders and the Knights as my best value teams. The Raiders won unconvincingly, yet despite the score I feel like I had the Raiders fairly pegged, although I underrated the Sea Eagles for a second straight week. A team I didn’t have fairly pegged was the Knights. It can be difficult betting on teams that aren’t resilient, and while the Knights looked solid for the first few minutes as soon as they conceded two tries the game was over and they didn’t have the mental resilience to respond. Part of the difference between poor and elite teams is their ability to respond to adversity, and I was wrong to have the Knights as a best value tip.
Best Value North Queensland Cowboys Origin period is a crap-shoot, although it’s an interesting time to see how accurately you’ve valued all the players who are missing from their club teams. That’s part of the reason why I have the Cowboys with good value at $2.05 this week. They’re missing Hess, Morgan, Cooper (and possibly Matt Scott); while the Sea Eagles are missing Tom and Jake Trbojevic, with Walker out through injury. The teams are almost even before origin considerations, and to be completely honest I think the Cowboys might be better without their origin players (even more so if Scott is suspended). I haven’t liked Coopers game for a while – I understand his supposed defensive value, although it’s over-rated and his offensive limitations are extensive, Hess within his current role with the team is functionally a defensively limited player playing in a position where defensive workload limits his main valuable NRL skill; impactful ball-running, and Matt Scott is an overall negative when he is on the field, with Morgan the only important out. The Sea Eagles without their origin players and Walker are in a worse situation. Odds: $2.05 Away @ Sea Eagles; Line: +1.5
Worst Value Wests Tigers The Tigers have no-one playing Origin, and the Roosters have Napa, Tedesco, Mitchell and Cordner - but I still think the Roosters are a better team. The Tigers have won games with an aggressive defensive style which has stifled and upset quite a few teams on offence. I have faith that Cronk and Keary have the ability to read their defensive line and have enough composure to deal with what it gives them. Unless the Tigers have some improved dummy-half play, they will struggle again offensively, and I’m not sure how their defence will fair against a smarter roosters attack, even with Ferguson at fullback Odds: 1.80 Away @ Roosters; Line: -1.5
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team-rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping (which is quite the rollercoaster at the moment). I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any-other gambling/tipping questions.
Performance so far this year Although we are working off a very small sample, so far this year: If you bet even stakes on my best value teams you would have an 83.20% ROI (return on investment) If you bet even stakes on my worst value teams you would have a -14.17% ROI
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
Change
1
Storm
14.19
+3
2
Dragons
11.23
-1
3
Rabbitohs
6.75
-1
4
Panthers
3.38
+1
5
Warriors
3.02
-2
6
Tigers
0.47
+3
7
Sharks
0.39
-1
8
Broncos
0.14
+3
9
Roosters
-1.40
-2
10
Raiders
-1.51
--
11
Bulldogs
-1.70
-3
12
Cowboys
-5.28
--
13
Eels
-6.44
+1
14
Knights
-6.88
-1
15
Titans
-9.28
--
16
Sea Eagles
-15.45
--
Best Value Penrith Panthers The Panthers are by my metric the 4th best team in the competition, and it’s hard to disagree. Penrith have had the 2nd easiest schedule so far, even still their performances this year have been remarkable. They have only two losses against the Sharks (4 points) and Bulldogs (2 points) and rank in the top 4 in both offence (4th) and defence (3rd). They face the much-maligned Cowboys this week, and while any team who faces the Cowboys will have value (see last weeks thread on the Cowboys inflated value), the Panthers have earned to be considered an elite team – and only being given a -1.5 start at home (Bathurst) against poor team like the Cowboys is not the way an elite team should be treated. Odds: $1.82 HOME v Cowboys; Line: -1.5
Worst Value - Keep Away Parramatta Eels Yes, the Eels are no longer a horrible football team (as they were in the first 6 rounds), but they are also not as good as their value suggests. The have won two games in a row, one of which was against a crumbling Sea Eagles team, the other was a solid 2-point win against the Tigers. The rest of their games so far this year have been losses, and despite the short-memory we tend to have as football fans, these losses are still statistically significant. Sometimes we struggle to adjust the opinions we formed before the season began and try to find comfort in events which match our opinions: the Eels were expected to be good, they weren’t, that doesn’t make sense. The Eels have won twice, that makes sense, maybe they are good? The Eels have a good win against the worst team in the NRL, and close 2-point win against a solid opponent in the Tigers. The Eels have improved, that doesn’t mean they are a good team, yet they are being valued like one. Odds: $2.20 AWAY @ Sharks; Line: +2.5
Also please note: I do not condone, nor would I recommend professional gambling to anyone. It's something that I stumbled into - I loved statistics and started using betting odds to validate my statistical models. From doing this - I realised I could make money, and it all stemmed from there. Gambling will never be my career, and while I generate an income from betting, I will always retain a regular job. Gambling is designed to be fun, if it isn't fun, you shouldn't gamble. Please Gamble Responsibly
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping. I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.
Performance so far this year If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game: Best Value You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 49.4%;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6)
$3.20
WIN
$10.00
$32.00
$122.00
Bulldogs (7)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$112.00
Eels (7)
$2.35
WIN
$10.00
$23.50
$125.50
Dragons (8)
$1.81
WIN
$10.00
$18.10
$133.60
Panthers (9)
$1.82
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Bulldogs (10)
$2.00
WIN
$10.00
$20.00
$133.60
Warriors (10)
$1.75
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Rabbitohs (10)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$137.60
Broncos (11)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$151.60
Storm (11)
$1.47
LOSE
$10.00
$141.60
Raiders (12)
$1.73
WIN
$10.00
$17.30
$148.90
Knights (12)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$138.90
Cowboys (13)
$2.05
WIN
$10.00
$20.50
$149.40
Worst Value You would have an ROI of -52.70% ;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6)
$2.55
LOSE
10
$90.00
Broncos (6)
$2.55
WIN
10
$25.50
$105.50
Panthers (7)
$1.49
LOSE
10
$95.50
Knights (7)
$2.60
WIN
10
$26.00
$111.50
Sea Eagles (8)
$1.60
LOSE
10
$101.50
Cowboys (8)
$1.42
LOSE
10
$91.50
Eels (9)
$2.20
LOSE
10
$81.50
Sea Eagles (10)
$2.58
WIN
10
$25.80
$97.30
Raiders (11)
$3.25
LOSE
10
$87.30
Cowboys (11)
$2.05
LOSE
10
$77.30
Eels (12)
$2.70
LOSE
10
$67.30
Titans (12)
$3.60
LOSE
10
$57.30
Tigers (13)
$1.80
LOSE
10
$47.30
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average at a neutral venue. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Dragons
9.27
2
Rabbitohs
9.01
3
Panthers
7.88
4
Sharks
4.11
5
Storm
2.50
6
Roosters
2.25
7
Raiders
-0.30
8
Bulldogs
-0.59
9
Cowboys
-0.61
10
Tigers
-1.17
11
Broncos
-2.14
12
Warriors
-3.12
13
Sea Eagles
-4.31
14
Knights
-5.61
15
Titans
-8.80
16
Eels
-9.17
Last Week Last week I had the Cowboys as the best value, and the Tigers as the worst value. The Cowboys were outstanding value at $2.05; the mobility they had both defensively and offensively without laterally slower and conservative players like; Scott Bolton Hess and Cooper made a remarkable difference to the Cowboys play-style. While the Tigers lost in a close game, they were still poor value; their offence struggles to generate points, and if their opposition has the composure and decision making to deal with their aggressive defence, they struggle to win games. Best Value Sorry for the late and quick one this week; this is my busiest time of the year between NBA and Origin. Newcastle Knights I know a large part of the Knights win over the Eels was attributed to how poor the Eels were; but I think that’s taking away from how good the Knights are. $3.20 at home, despite facing a quality Roosters side is supreme value. Odds: $3.20 Home V Roosters; Line: +8
Worst Value Manly Sea Eagles Playing in New Zealand, with their two key players either rested or playing after Origin, after providing no confidence the previous week against the Cowboys. Odds: 2.30 Home(Christchurch) V Warriors; Line: +3.5
Record the predictions for NRL 2019 from Foxsports, NRL.com and gambling agencies for review at the end of the season.
Allow /NRL "experts" to test themselves against people who are clearly biased, out of touch and have low football IQs.
If you want to get involved, post your predictions here. If you leave your username we can publicly shame you for your ineptitude at the end of the season. If not, you'll be just another fan yelling at clouds - nothing wrong with that. I'll add in any other major news outlet predictions - post the ones you see below. Especially keen to get the Courier / Telegraph and Nein tips. Buzz vs Gus vs Paul the Octopus will be interesting. Matlcokjnr has a similar setup - log your predictions with his survey here. "Consensus"
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping. I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.
Performance so far this year If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game: Best Value You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 18.60%;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6)
$3.20
WIN
$10.00
$32.00
$122.00
Bulldogs (7)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$112.00
Eels (7)
$2.35
WIN
$10.00
$23.50
$125.50
Dragons (8)
$1.81
WIN
$10.00
$18.10
$133.60
Panthers (9)
$1.82
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Bulldogs (10)
$2.00
WIN
$10.00
$20.00
$133.60
Warriors (10)
$1.75
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Rabbitohs (10)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$137.60
Broncos (11)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$151.60
Storm (11)
$1.47
LOSE
$10.00
$141.60
Raiders (12)
$1.73
WIN
$10.00
$17.30
$148.90
Knights (12)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$138.90
Cowboys (13)
$2.05
WIN
$10.00
$20.50
$149.40
Knights (14)
$3.20
LOSE
$10.00
$139.40
Knights (15)
$3.82
LOSE
$10.00
$129.40
Bulldogs (15)
$1.69
LOSE
$10.00
$119.40
Samoa Line (Rep)
$1.92
LOSE
$10.00
$109.40
QLD Line (Rep)
$1.92
WIN
$10.00
$19.2
$118.60
Worst Value You would have an ROI of -62.7% ;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6)
$2.55
LOSE
10
$90.00
Broncos (6)
$2.55
WIN
10
$25.50
$105.50
Panthers (7)
$1.49
LOSE
10
$95.50
Knights (7)
$2.60
WIN
10
$26.00
$111.50
Sea Eagles (8)
$1.60
LOSE
10
$101.50
Cowboys (8)
$1.42
LOSE
10
$91.50
Eels (9)
$2.20
LOSE
10
$81.50
Sea Eagles (10)
$2.58
WIN
10
$25.80
$97.30
Raiders (11)
$3.25
LOSE
10
$87.30
Cowboys (11)
$2.05
LOSE
10
$77.30
Eels (12)
$2.70
LOSE
10
$67.30
Titans (12)
$3.60
LOSE
10
$57.30
Tigers (13)
$1.80
LOSE
10
$47.30
Sea Eagles (14)
$2.30
LOSE
10
$37.30
Sea Eagles (15)
$3.25
LOSE
10
$27.30
Broncos (15)
$2.50
WIN
10
$25.00
$42.30
Fiji Line (Rep)
$1.92
LOSE
10
$32.30
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average at a neutral venue. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Dragons
9.78
2
Rabbitohs
8.99
3
Roosters
4.60
4
Storm
4.55
5
Panthers
4.24
6
Sharks
3.32
7
Raiders
2.87
8
Warriors
0.34
9
Broncos
-1.64
10
Titans
-3.13
11
Cowboys
-3.49
12
Bulldogs
-3.58
13
Tigers
-5.17
14
Knights
-5.86
15
Sea Eagles
-7.03
16
Eels
-8.85
Last Week I had QLD as the value team in Origin, which was correct, although the line of +8.5 was the safest option and I’m glad my action was tied up outside of H2H markets. Realistically QLD played well enough to win however their handful of offensive and defensive lapses proved costly. History will remember this series as redemptive series for NSW, but, regardless of the result of the 3rd game, I’m not convinced NSW were the better team overall but rather some small moments leant in their direction. Something to remember for next year; assuming NSW will remain largely unchanged they will canter into the series as short favourites, yet this will not be indicative of just how close this series was. Also, to kick off Rep Round I had Fiji (line) as the worst value team which was probably the worst value bet of the whole season. Also, I had Samoa (line) largely because of their halves quality in comparison to Tonga. I am guilty of being a little too cute with some tips and forgetting how impactful a dominant forward pack can be on a game. That was one of these times.
Best Value Sydney Roosters Catching $2.20 at a neutral venue (Adelaide Oval) is a very nice price for a Roosters team which despite underperforming to begin the season, has continued to improve. Teams who are integrating important members of their play style will usually struggle initially, yet with continuity comes improvement – and their first few games are not an indicator of the Roosters quality. Odds: $2.20 V Storm; Line: +2. Gold Coast Titans The Titans have progressed nicely through the last few weeks, and while most of their trundling of the Bulldogs has been blamed on the Bulldogs, the Titans were very good. After finally having consistency within their team in basically every position, they have improved, and catching >$2.50 against the Tigers is a nice place to be. Odds: $2.65 @ Tigers; Line: +6
Worst Value Brisbane Broncos Despite playing at home; I would not have the Broncos as a shorter priced favourite against a Raiders outfit who are charging. Odds: $1.65 V Raiders; Line: -3.5
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping. I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.
Performance so far this year If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game: Best Value You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 36.4%;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6)
$3.20
WIN
$10.00
$32.00
$122.00
Bulldogs (7)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$112.00
Eels (7)
$2.35
WIN
$10.00
$23.50
$125.50
Dragons (8)
$1.81
WIN
$10.00
$18.10
$133.60
Panthers (9)
$1.82
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Bulldogs (10)
$2.00
WIN
$10.00
$20.00
$133.60
Warriors (10)
$1.75
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Rabbitohs (10)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$137.60
Broncos (11)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$151.60
Storm (11)
$1.47
LOSE
$10.00
$141.60
Raiders (12)
$1.73
WIN
$10.00
$17.30
$148.90
Knights (12)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$138.90
Cowboys (13)
$2.05
WIN
$10.00
$20.50
$149.40
Knights (14)
$3.20
LOSE
$10.00
$139.40
Knights (15)
$3.82
LOSE
$10.00
$129.40
Bulldogs (15)
$1.69
LOSE
$10.00
$119.40
Samoa Line (Rep)
$1.92
LOSE
$10.00
$109.40
QLD Line (Rep)
$1.92
WIN
$10.00
$19.20
$118.60
Roosters (16)
$2.20
LOSE
$10.00
$108.60
Titans (16)
$2.65
WIN
$10.00
$26.50
$125.10
Storm (17)
$1.58
WIN
$10.00
$15.80
$130.90
Raiders (17)
$1.45
WIN
$10.00
$14.50
$135.40
Knights (18)
$2.10
WIN
$10.00
$21.00
$146.40
Broncos (18)
$1.65
LOSE
$10.00
$136.40
Worst Value You would have an ROI of -33% ;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6)
$2.55
LOSE
10
$90.00
Broncos (6)
$2.55
WIN
10
$25.50
$105.50
Panthers (7)
$1.49
LOSE
10
$95.50
Knights (7)
$2.60
WIN
10
$26.00
$111.50
Sea Eagles (8)
$1.60
LOSE
10
$101.50
Cowboys (8)
$1.42
LOSE
10
$91.50
Eels (9)
$2.20
LOSE
10
$81.50
Sea Eagles (10)
$2.58
WIN
10
$25.80
$97.30
Raiders (11)
$3.25
LOSE
10
$87.30
Cowboys (11)
$2.05
LOSE
10
$77.30
Eels (12)
$2.70
LOSE
10
$67.30
Titans (12)
$3.60
LOSE
10
$57.30
Tigers (13)
$1.80
LOSE
10
$47.30
Sea Eagles (14)
$2.30
LOSE
10
$37.30
Sea Eagles (15)
$3.25
LOSE
10
$27.30
Broncos (15)
$2.50
WIN
10
$25.00
$42.30
Fiji Line (Rep)
$1.92
LOSE
10
$32.30
Broncos (16)
$1.65
WIN
10
$16.50
$38.80
Sharks (18)
$1.67
WIN
10
$16.70
$45.50
Tigers (18)
$3.15
WIN
10
$31.50
$67.00
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average at a neutral venue. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Rabbitohs
7.94
2
Storm
5.91
3
Dragons
4.85
4
Sharks
4.38
5
Roosters
4.32
6
Raiders
3.94
7
Panthers
3.48
8
Broncos
1.03
9
Warriors
-0.50
10
Bulldogs
-1.59
11
Cowboys
-3.16
12
Titans
-3.51
13
Sea Eagles
-3.73
14
Tigers
-5.40
15
Eels
-7.36
16
Knights
-7.71
Last Week Very interesting week – hit on the Knights, lost on the Sharks, Broncos and Tigers. The post-origin period is one of the more difficult times, in part due to both waning motivation and fatigue, but also most people now have an accurate idea of how to value each team. I wasn’t going to post a thread this week, because there is some pretty poor value across the board this round, but I’m not playing with actual money in this thread so I’ll throw them down anyway.
Best Value Canberra Raiders The Raiders are one of the more interesting teams in the competition. Their offence ranks as the second best in the league by my metric, yet their defence is woeful. Losing Tapine can only improve their edge and I am a vocal defender of Blake Austin as a player. Odds: $3 V Sharks; Line: +6.5. Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles Manly are much improved, and while I don’t think they are a good team – the gap between the Roosters and them is not as cavernous as the odds suggest. Odds: $2.60 V Roosters; Line: +6
Worst Value Penrith Panthers I’m low on the Penrith compared to the general consensus – they’re a solid team, but I would group them in the same tier as the Broncos in terms of quality. Factoring in playing away – they are poor value. Odds: $1.96 @ Broncos; Line: +1.5
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping. I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.
Performance so far this year If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game: Best Value You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 35.4%;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6)
$3.20
WIN
$10.00
$32.00
$122.00
Bulldogs (7)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$112.00
Eels (7)
$2.35
WIN
$10.00
$23.50
$125.50
Dragons (8)
$1.81
WIN
$10.00
$18.10
$133.60
Panthers (9)
$1.82
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Bulldogs (10)
$2.00
WIN
$10.00
$20.00
$133.60
Warriors (10)
$1.75
LOSE
$10.00
$123.60
Rabbitohs (10)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$137.60
Broncos (11)
$2.40
WIN
$10.00
$24.00
$151.60
Storm (11)
$1.47
LOSE
$10.00
$141.60
Raiders (12)
$1.73
WIN
$10.00
$17.30
$148.90
Knights (12)
$2.70
LOSE
$10.00
$138.90
Cowboys (13)
$2.05
WIN
$10.00
$20.50
$149.40
Knights (14)
$3.20
LOSE
$10.00
$139.40
Knights (15)
$3.82
LOSE
$10.00
$129.40
Bulldogs (15)
$1.69
LOSE
$10.00
$119.40
Samoa Line (Rep)
$1.92
LOSE
$10.00
$109.40
QLD Line (Rep)
$1.92
WIN
$10.00
$19.20
$118.60
Roosters (16)
$2.20
LOSE
$10.00
$108.60
Titans (16)
$2.65
WIN
$10.00
$26.50
$125.10
Storm (17)
$1.58
WIN
$10.00
$15.80
$130.90
Raiders (17)
$1.45
WIN
$10.00
$14.50
$135.40
Worst Value You would have an ROI of -61.2% ;
Team
Odds
Outcome
Stake
Win
Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6)
$2.55
LOSE
10
$90.00
Broncos (6)
$2.55
WIN
10
$25.50
$105.50
Panthers (7)
$1.49
LOSE
10
$95.50
Knights (7)
$2.60
WIN
10
$26.00
$111.50
Sea Eagles (8)
$1.60
LOSE
10
$101.50
Cowboys (8)
$1.42
LOSE
10
$91.50
Eels (9)
$2.20
LOSE
10
$81.50
Sea Eagles (10)
$2.58
WIN
10
$25.80
$97.30
Raiders (11)
$3.25
LOSE
10
$87.30
Cowboys (11)
$2.05
LOSE
10
$77.30
Eels (12)
$2.70
LOSE
10
$67.30
Titans (12)
$3.60
LOSE
10
$57.30
Tigers (13)
$1.80
LOSE
10
$47.30
Sea Eagles (14)
$2.30
LOSE
10
$37.30
Sea Eagles (15)
$3.25
LOSE
10
$27.30
Broncos (15)
$2.50
WIN
10
$25.00
$42.30
Fiji Line (Rep)
$1.92
LOSE
10
$32.30
Broncos (16)
$1.65
WIN
10
$16.50
$38.80
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average at a neutral venue. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Storm
7.54
2
Rabbitohs
7.17
3
Dragons
6.53
4
Panthers
4.65
5
Roosters
4.30
6
Broncos
3.01
7
Sharks
2.99
8
Raiders
2.51
9
Bulldogs
-1.15
10
Cowboys
-1.94
11
Warriors
-2.91
12
Titans
-3.61
13
Sea Eagles
-5.40
14
Tigers
-6.82
15
Eels
-7.14
16
Knights
-7.79
Last Week I didn’t post a full value finder last week, although I did post two best value bets in match/pre-match threads once team lists were finalised on the Storm and Raiders The Storm certainly were value at their price after the teams were finalised, however the Raiders certainly were not despite winning. Sometimes in gambling you can have action on the correct team in terms of value and lose, other times you can have action on the incorrect value team and still win, and with the randomness and luck in which the Raiders finished their game, this was certainly one of those times.
Best Value Newcastle Knights Curious odds in this game, especially considering Pearce returning, although it’s likely influenced by the inflated absence of Ponga and to a lesser extent Griffin. I’m of the opinion that Pearce provides more value to the Knights performance than Ponga, and being outsiders playing at home against an unremarkable Eels team is surprisingly good value. Odds: $2.10 V Eels; Line: +1.5. Brisbane Broncos The ‘bounce-back’ fallacy seems to have slowed the Broncos price shortening, as many except the Warriors to perform above expectations following an underwhelming performance. The Broncos are a good team, despite having an ununified start to the season, and they are improving with every performance. With the Broncos increased continuity in their halves they have started to display more diverse ball-movement recently, and with their elite forward pack I think it’s unlikely the Warriors will win. Odds: $1.65 V Warriors; Line: -3.5
Worst Value Cronulla Sharks The Sharks may very well win their game against the Panthers, although at their current price it has a high-level of risk, pending team decisions with the Panthers. I would avoid having action on the Sharks as although their win total places them with other elite teams, they have been largely unimpressive. Odds: $1.67 V Panthers; Line: -4 Wests Tigers The Tigers have been an extremely interesting case so far this year. They managed to win some early high-profile games within the first few rounds, and since have represented some extremely poor value. Their offence has been woeful so far this year, in some part due to their dummy-half play, in other part due to their lack of overall ball-movement and structuring. They managed to win a few close early games with a defence which is difficult to replicate across a full season, and it’s telling that as of this point in the season I have them ranked as the third-bottom team statistically. Odds: $3.15 @ Dragons; Line: +8
NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub. The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team-rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping (which is quite the rollercoaster at the moment). I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any-other gambling/tipping questions:
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank
Team
Rating
Change
1
Dragons
12.58
--
2
Rabbitohs
8.08
--
3
Warriors
5.31
--
4
Storm
5.30
--
5
Tigers
4.15
+1
6
Bulldogs
1.69
+7
7
Panthers
1.40
--
8
Roosters
-0.82
-3
9
Raiders
-0.94
-1
10
Sharks
-1.50
--
11
Broncos
-3.50
+3
12
Titans
-4.95
-1
13
Sea Eagles
-6.97
-4
14
Cowboys
-7.34
-2
15
Knights
-10.56
--
16
Eels
-11.46
--
Best Value Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs It feels like an over-reaction to one good game against a struggling opponent like the Cowboys, but the Bulldogs are much better than the general perception. They have had three less-than-impressive losses against the Raiders, Roosters and Storm, yet have played exceptionally against strong opponents like the Rabbitohs (4 point loss) and Panthers (2 point win), as well as demolishing a poor Cowboys outfit last week. The Dogs have had a hard opening stretch, with the Cowboys being their only poor opponent, and coupling this with playing 4 of their first 6 games 'away', they are certainly undervalued. Odds: $2.70 HOME V Roosters, Line: +5.5 Parramatta Eels It feels strange to have the worst team in the league as the 'best' value, but perhaps it's easier to say that: they aren't as 'bad' as people think. The Eels have had a poor start to the season, so poor their offensive rating is the worst since I started tracking statistics, yet there are some positives. They rank 12th in defensive rating, which is more impressive when you consider the flow-on effect that a struggling offence will rarely put a defence in a position to succeed. The Eels have also had a relatively difficult start to the season (6th in Strength of Schedule), although some of this is influenced by every team who has faced the Eels receiving a healthy win. Further to this, which is complete speculation: their poor offensive rating is almost certainly an abberation and will improve, no NRL-quality team could continue to be this poor in attack. Mix this in with facing a Manly outfit which has struggled mightily (apart from their one shellacking against the Eels in round 2) and surprisingly the Eels are an undervalued football team. Odds: $2.35 HOME V Sea Eagles, Line: +4
Worst Value - Keep Away Penrith Panthers The Panthers have performed well. They have also had the easiest start to the season (and it's not particularly close). They have only faced two opponents with positive ratings: the Rabbitohs (4 point win), and the Bulldogs (2 point loss). Their other opponents have been: the Cowboys, Eels (twice) and the Titans, and while they won all 4 of these games, their performance relative to the strength of their opponents does not warrant them to be in company with elite teams like the Dragons, Rabbitohs, Warriors and Storm. Odds: $1.49 AWAY @ Sharks, Line: -6 Newcastle Knights The Knights currently sit at 15th in the ratings, and are barely holding their head above the Eels. Surprisingly the Knights have 3 wins, two of which came against poor opponents: Manly (1 point win), Broncos (5 point win), and one win against an average opponent: Raiders (2 point win). Other than this, they have been comprehensively slaughtered by the Dragons, Roosters and Storm, which despite their position on the ladder - has them tracking as a very very poor team. Odds: $2.60 AWAY @ Tigers, Line:+6
Also please note: I do not condone, nor would I recommend professional gambling to anyone. It's something that I stumbled into - I loved statistics and started using betting odds to validate my statistical models. From doing this - I realised I could make money, and it all stemmed from there. Gambling will never be my career, and while I generate an income from betting, I will always retain a regular job. Gambling is designed to be fun, if it isn't fun, you shouldn't gamble. Please Gamble Responsibly
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