The NBA Finals are underway, but there are now 28 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, watch LeBron, and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Boston Celtics.
step one: don't flush money down the toilet
This is a difficult entry to write, because the Boston Celtics are a good team without any major problems hanging over their head. They were top 5 in W-L record, top 5 in point differential. They finished 4th in offense, 4th in defense. They advanced to the Conference Finals, knocking off a tough Toronto team along the way. If they rolled it back next season, they should be considered a top 5 team once again.
If you can nitpick, you can find reasons to quibble with some of their big splash free agency signings. Gordon Hayward got a huge contract and didn't sustain his All-Star level (for reasons out of his control.) Last offseason, the team gave out another huge contract to Kemba Walker ($32M + $34M + $36M + $38M player option), and they may be regretting that now. Walker never looked at 100% health and he got picked on some defensively in the playoffs. The idea of paying him that kind of money for three more seasons may be a little scary.
Of course, there's no use crying over spilled milk. Gordon Hayward will likely "opt in" to his $34M player option. Is that an overpay? Sure. Still, Hayward is still a solid starter with a balanced skill set. With another year removed from that injury, he may take another step up.
As for Walker, the hope is that he'll do the same with an offseason to recover and another year in the system. It can't be easy to go from the star of a franchise to the 2nd or 3rd option. In fact, most of Walker's offensive decline can be chalked up to a reduced role. His PPG dropped from 25.6 to 20.4, but that comes after his minutes dropped by 3.8 and his field goal attempts dropped by 4.4 per game. In terms of his efficiency, there wasn't a big difference. He actually scored a higher true shooting percentage (up from 56% to 58%). His offensive box plus/minus stayed near the same at + 4.9, which ranked as the highest on Boston's team.
Walker didn't look great in the bubble, but I'm going to chalk that up to some lingering injuries. He's still only 30 years old, so he hasn't gotten materially worse in a year. Will he get much worse by age 32? At 33? That's possible. But again, the Celtics have already committed to that. They can try to float trade packages for Walker to get off that contract, but I don't see teams beating down their door for it. If a team like the Knicks wants Walker, they may not offer anything back in return (aside from their willingness to take the contract.) Given Boston's situation as a team on the verge of the Finals, it doesn't make a lot of sense to take a step back like that just for cap relief.
step two: promote a temp to a full time desk
The Boston Celtics have a very strong "top six." You have the two rising stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. You have the two veterans in Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward. You have the super role players in Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. After that, it's more of a grab bag. No other player on the team averaged more than 20 minutes a night in the regular season, and no other player averaged more than 18 minutes a night in the postseason.
A team can make a deep run in the playoffs by going six strong, but it makes the margin of error narrower. When one of those players gets hurt -- like Gordon Hayward did this postseason -- it strains your depth. Beyond that, having an extra member of the full-time cast allows your players to take nights off and manage their minutes in anticipation of that deep playoff run. Hayward and Walker are both 30 now, so it's going to be important to keep them fresh.
Effectively, we want to take this "top six" and make it a "top seven." (Hence the post title.)
The top candidate for a promotion would be rookie PF Grant Williams. To me, Williams has more offensive potential than fellow forward Semi Ojeleye. After three good years at Tennessee, Williams dropped to # 22 in the draft based on the perception that he was more of a "college player" who couldn't keep up with NBA athletes. That didn't look to be the case so far for Williams (or for Cam Johnson in Phoenix, by the by.) Williams is a high-IQ player who can potentially play several different positions. He needs to keep increasing his range (25% from three), but he's been working toward that over his career. If he can take a leap next year, that'd be a major boon for the Celtics.
Fellow rookies Romeo Langford and Carsen Edwards may be slightly behind on the development curve, but it'd be great if they could get on the track toward the rotation eventually. Langford projects as a quality scorer who could potentially replace Gordon Hayward in the lineup in 1-2 years. Meanwhile, Edwards was a major shot maker in college who still has a lot of work to do. It may be too optimistic to think he could be a starter one day, but perhaps he could take the reserve role from Brad Wanamaker (a free agent.) If not, Tremont Waters (another rookie) may try to vie for that spot himself. It's not exactly Game of Thrones, but it's Game of Bench Seats. If nothing are ready for 15 or so minutes, then the team may need to re-sign Wanamaker or another filler vet.
In an ideal world, the Celtics would have faith that Robert Williams would be ready for an elevated role himself. They may lean more toward smallball bigs, but it's nice to have the option of a more traditional big at center as well. Enes Kanter has a player option for $5M that he may take -- he may not. He may try to finagle a longer-term deal somewhere. But if the team trusts the Time Lord, they can negotiate from a position of strength on that front.
No matter what happens, the Celtics will likely need their "7th man" to come from within. They have $120M committed on the cap for next season, so they're going to need to rely on internal improvements.
step three: bundle like the Big Short
If you thought the Boston Celtics had a lot of prospects in their "farm system" already, just wait. In this upcoming draft, they'll have pick # 14. And pick # 26. And pick # 30. And pick # 47.
Danny Ainge has always valued the draft and having a lot of picks, but we don't need this many. After all, we're trying to win the NBA title, not the G-League title.
The most obvious tactic would be bundling up these assets and trying to upgrade somehow. Like in The Big Short, perhaps a bunch of low-end assets can equal something of value. Still, the Celtics and their fans need to be reasonable here. They've tried bundling up lower draft picks in order to move for a while now, and always seem surprised when teams reject it (thinking of the potential Justise Winslow trade-up, primarily.) The truth is, these mid-to-late R1 picks aren't as valuable as many people seem to think. If the team packages all four of those picks together (14, 26, 30, 47) in order to move up, they may only land around pick # 9 or so. This isn't the NFL; NBA teams tend to value quality over quantity in the draft.
For a team that's already pretty strong and balanced, there may be a tendency to keep all their picks and just swing for a home run or two. The trouble is: there's only so much room on the roster. Consolidating (or pushing some of those picks back to future drafts) may be necessary.
If the Celtics can't move up and stay at # 14, they should have the option of getting another solid prospect. Some that may be intriguing to me personally would be Arizona SG/SF Josh Green ("Green"? karmic!), Villanova SF Saddiq Bey, or Maryland PF Jalen Smith. All three are quality prospects that project as rotational players in a year or two. A bigger home run swing may be Aleksej Pokusevski, the skilled 7'0" stretch big from Serbia. Pokusevski's narrow frame would make me nervous to bet on him if I was a GM on the ropes who needed to hit on my pick, but the Celtics have more freedom than that. They can take some chances if they want. Other upside plays would include PG/SG R.J. Hampton (U.S./New Zealand) and SF Jaden McDaniels (Washington).
With the # 26 pick, the Celtics could also get a decent prospect as well. You can never go wrong with a traditional 3+D prospect like SF Robert Woodard (Mississippi State). I also wouldn't rule out taking a traditional big like Vernon Carey (Duke). No one wants traditional scoring bigs anymore, but that's the reason that a player like that (who averaged 18-9 as a freshman) would slip down to # 24. In another era, the kid may be a top 10 pick. At the very least, he could replace the Enes Kanter role as a scoring sub.
step four: keep on truckin'
Hmm. Usually these offseason blueprints have 4 or 5 steps, but I'm running out of ideas here. As mentioned, things are running pretty smoothly for this franchise. I don't think Danny Ainge needs much help from reddit right now.
Still, I'll throw in some minor little notes that don't even merit a full section.
WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU? The Celtics have a lot of shot makers, but sometimes their offense can stall and fall into iso or hero ball. They need to keep pushing forward with ball movement and set plays if need be. One stat I noticed: Jaylen Brown is an exceptional shooter from the corner. He's at 43% from his career, and that swelled to 48% this season. Running action to get him more of those shots would be helpful.
REUNITE GERMANY. The team has a $5M option on center Daniel Theis that they'll definitely pick up. After that, Theis will be an unrestricted free agent. If I ran the team, I'd start talking to Theis about an extension. There may be a perception that the team can play any smallball center and save some money at the position, but I'd disagree. Theis is an underrated player that fits the modern NBA well. There may be a matchup here and there where he struggles, but overall he's a good starter and may need to be paid like one. He's still a little "under the radar," so perhaps they can get a team-friendly deal if they extend him now.
KEEP YOUR COACHING DEPTH STRONG. Celtics assistant coach Jay Larranaga is one of the better lieutenants in the game. He had been floated for some head coaching jobs in the past, but seems to have been lost in the shadows with all the major movement on the sidelines this year. Hopefully, for Boston's sake, Larranaga doesn't feel discouraged by that and doesn't start looking for head coaching opportunities elsewhere. His father is a good college coach, and he may decide to go that NCAA route eventually himself. The team should keep him well compensated so he doesn't feel the need to do that.
Overall, we're talking minor tweaks for this next season. The Celtics' chances of winning a title will hinge on how much they can improve -- both from their young stars and from their young bench.
other offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS

My previous post regarding line movement in NCAA Men's Basketball spreads received a lot of great feedback and started some really great conversation. As I continue looking into this type of data I will share all of my results here in order to keep those conversations going or, at the very least, continue providing some interesting information for everyone to explore while we don't have any sports to bet on. The most recent numbers I've studied are college basketball totals. The overall takeaways this time are very similar to those previous:

1. Movements on a total correctly predict the winning side less than half the time.
2. No profitable betting strategy can be formulated by using line movements alone.

However, there were some interesting differences between sides and totals that are noteworthy:

1. In reference to the adage, "The public loves favorites and overs"; Overs are not quite as popular with the "public" as favorites. Totals moved up (in favor of the over) 8.7% more often than down (in favor of the under). Recall that favorites saw an almost 11% bias compared to underdogs.
2. The totals market is slightly more efficient than the spread market. Total line movements had an overall accuracy of 49.84%, compared to 48.99% for spreads. I explained that fading the market's spread movements would save a bettor over 1,000 units vs tailing. This same strategy for totals would save only 172 units.
3. I found the first indication of market efficiency in one specific sub-set of data. When a total is bet down (in favor of the under), it correctly predicts an under 50.3% of the time. While still not successful enough to overcome -110 odds, it was pretty cool to uncover that the under is a "sharp" play more often than not.

I presented a theory at the end of this article that smaller markets are more likely to be comprised of a higher percentage of sharp players. College basketball is only ever king of the American betting markets during March and early April. Throughout the entire rest of the season it pales in comparison to the NFL and NBA. I made the assumption that recreational, so-called "five dollar" bettors are much more likely to make their "entertainment only" bets in one of those bigger markets. While it certainly can't be said that every die-hard fan or bettor with a model is a sharp player, I think it's an interesting perspective to have before analyzing those bigger markets.
In the meantime, as always, feel free to message me with any thoughts or questions, and stay safe!
Full article with graphical representations can be found here: https://gamblingandsubmarines.com/evaluating-line-movement-in-ncaa-basketball-totals/

THE COMETS HARVEST

 
Good afternoon Canucks Nation, it's time for another catch-up with the Farm!
 
Full disclosure, I am incredibly hungover. Last night I met up with a cousin of mine, whom I had not seen in over four years!
Like the genius I am, I didn't eat anything prior to meeting up, and then I went on to have seven or eight High Life IPA's thanks to my good friends at the Brewhall in Vancouver!
 
So yeah, expect run-on sentences, grammatical inconsistencies, and spelling errors? you bet!
 
Last night the Utica Comets eked out a 2-1 regulation victory over the Checkers, even after doing their usual second-period collapse where they got outshot 12-to-5.
 
Fortunately, stalwart rookie netminder, Michael Di Pietro, put up an impressive 33-save performance, posting a 0.971 save percentage and a 1.00 goals-against average.
 
Tonight, it looks like Cull will be giving Mikey a bit of a break, as Jake Kielly looks to get his first AHL start of the season.
 
One of the more notable things to note from the Comets win last night was Justin Bailey getting crushed along the end-boards by Cavan Fitzgerald. Last night's Game highlights, including the hit on Bailey, and Lind stepping up to "fight" Fitzgerald..
 
Although this is far from the same team that won the Calder Cup last season, the Checkers are a much tougher team than their record would indicate. Comets coming away with four points off this double-header weekend will do wonders for their playoff push.
 
The Comets record in the second game of back-to-backs remains at seven wins, nine losses, and one shootout loss.
Slightly under a 0.500 points-earned-percentage
 
THE STARTING LINEUP
 

LW	C	RW
Baertschi (#47)	Camper (#19)	Boucher (#24)
Bailey (#95)	Hamilton (#36)	Lind (#13)
LeBlanc (#3)	Stevens (#16)	Perron (#27)
Stevenson (#26)	Graovac (#44)	Jasek (#9)

 

LD	RD
Sautner (#6)	Rafferty (#25)
Petgrave (#22)	Chatfield (#5)
Teves (#4)	Eliot (#52)

 

G
Jake Kielly

 

INJURY REPORT	--	--	--	--	--
Dylan Blujus	David Pope (concussion)	Vinny Arseneau (done for the season)	Jonah Gadjovich (ill)	Carter Bancks (lower body)	Olli Juolevi (hip soreness)

 

Healthy Scratches	--	--
Guillaume Brisebois (technically)	Nikolay Goldobin (vet)	Seamus Malone

 
Goldobin gets the veteran-scratch for a third consecutive game. Have to feel for the guy, but hard to ignore how ineffectual he has been at 5-on-5.
 
With Blujus out with injury, Sautner slides back in with Rafferty as the team's top pair. He took a dirty hit in the first period from last night's action and is feeling the effects today. That opens the door, again, for Josh Teves and Mitch Eliot to come into the lineup to try and impress the bench boss for more ice-time.
 

1st period

 
[Comets in White]
 

• FYI: I didn't realize the sound was shut off on my capture device until midway through the second period, so apologies for the lack of audio.
  
• Charlotte is wearing some unfortunate jerseys, meant as throwbacks to the Miracle-On-Ice USA Team. Charlotte isn't the first thing I think of when I see that abbreviation
  
• Kielly tested early off a one-timer from Stephen Lorentz
  
• Three icings in the opening 57 seconds ...could be a long night
  
• Mitch Eliot with a wrister off an o-zone draw for the Comets first of the night
  
• Lukas Jasek (#9) with a takeaway and some nifty puck protection to find space for a shot towards the net. Jasek peels back to the blue line to catch a clearing attempt and floats a shot into the glove of Charlotte netminder, Keith Kinkaid
  
• Quick puck movement for the first-line, as Sven Baertschi (#47) sends a rink wide pass to Carter Camper (#19) at center-ice, who then springs Reid Boucher (#24) into the Checkers zone for a breakaway. Kinkaid makes the save
  
• Justin Bailey (#95) skates end to end, then lays a dangerous hit on Joey Keane, sending him crashing head-first into the boards. Comets to the PK
  
• 1st peeker: Stevens, Boucher, Chatfield, Sautner
  
• John Stevens wins the d-zone draw and then generates a two-man rush alongside Boucher, killing precious seconds off the penalty
  
• Charlotte with several shot-attempts on the powerplay, but all end up going wide of the net or over the head of Kielly
  
• Kielly goes post-to-post to make a massive one-timer save on Stelio Mattheos. Tyler Graovac (#44) shows Kielly some love for the stop
  
• Bailey leaves the box, and the game resumes at 5-on-5
  
• Jake Kielly, the difference-maker for the Comets early, as he makes another huge stop. This time, Kielly makes a point-blank stop on Alexis D'Aoust, who picks up a missed shot-attempt and backhands a shot from the crease of Kielly's net
  
• Sven Baertschi (#47) takes a tumble into the Checkers endboards, skates gingerly back to the bench. Hopefully nothing major
  
• Brogan Rafferty (#25) engaging in a physical battle with Stelio Mattheos around the Comets goal-line after Mattheos nearly makes head-contact with his check on Rafferty
  
• Justin Bailey (#95) blocks a pass, forcing the puck into the Checkers zone, and Kole Lind (#13) nearly capitalizes on the opportunity with a wraparound goal
  
• Matt Petgrave (#22) with a giveaway under pressure, then Jake Bean dekes to get around the check of Sven Baertschi (#47) to wire a shot on Kielly
  
• Comets gain the Checkers zone, and a forechecking Boucher (#24) pokes the puck loose, allowing Baertschi (#47) to steal for a turning slapper on Kinkaid
  
• LOL, Kielly embracing a longstanding Comets tradition by blocking a shot with the mask
  
• The forechecking pressure of John Stevens (#16) allows Stefan LeBlanc (#3) to come up with the loose puck. LeBlanc goes cross-ice to Brogan Rafferty (#25), who attempts to set-up Francis Perron (#27) with the tip-in from the slot
  
• Lukas Jasek takes a high-sticking penalty off an offensive-zone draw and the Comets are back to the penalty-kill
  
• Brogan Rafferty sent out as the 2nd PK d-pairing *eyes emoji*
  
• GOAL - CHARLOTTE - 1-0 Checkers: The Checkers capitalize on the powerplay, as a heavily screened Kielly can do nothing to stop a gorgeous tip from Charlotte's, Ryan Bourque, off a shot from Joey Keane. That's two games in a row where the Comets gave up the opening goal against the Checkers.
  
• Also, loving Big Pimpin as the goal song
  
• Justin Bailey (#95) pokes the puck up-ice for a breakaway off a d-zone draw. Bailey cruises down the left-wing before slamming on the breaks to get around a Checkers defender. Bailey sends a pass over to Kole Lind (#13), who joined him on the rush, but Lind can't get a good enough touch on the puck to get it on goal
  
• Ryan Bourque takes a high-sticking penalty, and the Comets close out the remaining 1:40 of the first with a powerplay
  
• 1st peeper: Baertschi, Bailey, Graovac, Boucher, Rafferty
  
• Comets sub-out Graovac for Perron, who promptly sets up Bailey (#95) for a quick shot through traffic on Kinkaid
  
• 2nd peeper: Lind, Jasek, Petgrave, Perron, Camper
  
• 1st peeper comes back out for the final o-zone draw in the final five seconds of the period
  

 

The score at the end of the 1st period: 1-0 Checkers

 
Not sure I like Graovac on the first powerplay unit, the guy simply doesn't have the legs to chase down pucks along the wall.
Overall, it was a bit of a hot-and-cold period of play from the Comets. To start, the team was giving up some high-danger scoring opportunities, but by periods-end, they managed to reel the Checkers back.
Both teams are doing well at holding each other to the outside perimeter for shots.
Have to feel for Kielly, a bit, on that opening-goal as there was literally nothing he could do to stop that one. Penalty-killers have to do better at clearing space around Kielly's net, so he has clear sight-lines on the puck.
The dreaded enemy of the Comets, the second-period, could mean a comeback opportunity, or a full collapse. Fingers crossed its the former. Points are critical these days as two teams behind them in the standings, the Binghamton Devils and Laval Rocket, are both on decent win streaks to put them in contention for playoff spots. The Comets already got two points off this conference-foe, but another point or two could be all the difference between getting in or falling out.
 

2nd Period

 

• Comets early powerplay ends without much going for it
  
• Slow goings through the opening four minutes
  
• Jalen Chatfield (#5) whips a shot through traffic to Tyler Graovac (#44), whos redirect-attempt goes wide off Kinkaid's leg
  
• Comets controlling the Checkers in their zone quite well; looking like a powerplay opportunity for the Comets
  
• Just realized I've been recording everything with the sound off ...awesome
  
• Kole Lind (#13) rips a shot on Kinkaid, and Justin Bailey (#95) follows up on the rebound for a chance of his own
  
• GOAL - CHARLOTTE - 2-0 Checkers: The Checkers quickly spoil the Comets second-period pressure by scoring their second of the night. Clark Bishop finds himself alone on the Comets right-circle, and he rifles a shot towards the crease of Kielly's net. Mark Cooper crashes the crease to get a last-second redirect of the puck under Kielly's pads.
  
• Clark Bishop beats Kielly glove side but rings his shot off of he goalpost
  
• Mitch Eliot (#52) knocks Steven Lorentz down at the Comets blue line, then Justin Bailey (#95) draws a slashing penalty against Max McCormick to put the Comets on the powerplay
  
• 1st peeper: Bailey, Graovac, Camper, Boucher, Rafferty
  
  • very interesting to see Baertschi not out for the 1st unit... I wonder what that's about?
• Tyler Graovac (#44) registers a shot on the powerplay, and a Charlotte fan shows off his dedicated boo'ing
  
• Carter Camper (#19) sets up Justin Bailey (#95) for the redirect in the crease, but Kinkaid makes a huge save to keep the puck out
  
• GOAL - UTICA - 2-1 Checkers: Reid Boucher (#24) scores again! His 33rd of the season! Every point that Boucher scores is breaking franchise records, he's now one point away from tying Alex Grenier for career-points with the Comets. At his current pace, that seems like an inevitability for him to both match and surpass that total.
  
• Before the faceoff, Sven Baertschi heads down the tunnel with the athletic trainor....oh god
  
• Alexa, please play Let the Bodies hit the Floor
  
• Game-pace slowing down considerably in the final ten minutes of play as both teams electing to play dump-and-chase
  
• Brogan Rafferty (#25) attempts to clear the puck from behind the Comets goal line, but the Checkers intercept it. Steven Lorentz gets set up with a golden one-timer opportunity, but Kielly makes the save
  

 

The score at the end of the 2nd period: 2-1 Checkers

 
So tilting, realizing I didn't have sound captured through the first twenty minutes of play.
Despite how dull the period was, the Comets did well to generate shots on goal, as they held the Checkers to just five total. One of those being a goal, but, HEY! Can't save 'em all!
Concerning that, Baertschi went down the tunnel with the athletic trainer seemingly unprovoked. Fingers crossed that this isn't concussion-related.
Kole Lind and Justin Bailey have had really impressive games so far, but have been unable to capitalize on any of the multiple scoring chances they've created.
 

3rd period

 

• Baertschi not on the bench to start the third :(
  
• Lind subs in on the Comets first-line alongside Camper and Boucher
  
• Reid Boucher gets stood up at center-ice while trying to transition, but Lind recovers the puck for the zone-entry. Checkers eventually ice the puck
  
• Puck takes an odd-bounce off the stanchion, and Charlotte's Jacob Pritchard gets a dangerous opportunity from it. Fortunately, he whiffs his shot high over the net
  
• Comets off to their third penalty-kill of the night after Dyson Stevenson gets called for tripping
  
• Kielly with the save on Oliwer Kaski's one-timer from the left circle
  
• 2nd peeker: Boucher, Bailey, Rafferty, LeBlanc
  
• LeBlanc still getting played as a forward but sent out on the penalty kill as a d-man
  
• Lukas Jasek (#9) steps up on Roland McKeown to force a turnover. Lind and Jasek forecheck
  
• Off the ensuing play from Jasek, Jalen Chatfield (#5) jumps to glove down a Checkers clearance attempt. Chatfield quickly moves down the right wing before handing off to Carter Camper (#19) at the bottom of the circle. Camper sets up Lukas Jasek (#9) for the one-timer on goal, but Kinkaid makes the huge stop
  
• Kinkaid loses his stick!
  
• Comets pressuring hard while Kinkaid is without his stick, culminating in Mitch Eliot (#52) rocketing a shot off of Kinkaid's mask and out of play
  
• Fantastic pressure displayed by the Comets off of that effort from Jasek to force the turnover
  
• John Stevens (#16) with an outlet feed to Stefan LeBlanc (#3), who weaves into the Checkers zone for a shot on goal
  
• Kole Lind (#13) displaying some solid puck-protection inside the Checkers zone that allows the Comets to set Jalen Chatfield (#5) up for a shot-attempt
  
• Lind getting some long looks out here -- displaying great puck control in the offensive zone to allow the Comets to set up a cycle
  
• Brogan Rafferty (#25) with a blatant giveaway inside the d-zone that results in a dangerous scoring chance for the Checkers Boston Leier
  
• Leier, ironically, was Kielly's teammate through the majority of this season down in Kalamazoo
  
• Weird string of events, as Kole Lind (#13) takes a high-stick off a whiffed dump-in attempt from Charlotte. Lind gathers himself and joins the Comets for a rush into the offensive zone where he then draws an incredibly weak slashing penalty against Steven Lorentz
  
• 1st peeper: Bailey, Graovac, Camper, Rafferty, Boucher
  
• GOAL - UTICA - 2-2 Tie: Wow, what a quick response! Who else but Reid Boucher (#24) to rifle a one-timer past Kinkaid for his 34th goal of the year! Fantastic drop-pass from Tyler Graovac (#44) to set up Boucher for the game-tying goal.
  
• Physical board battles in the Comets zone followed by Lind and Camper trying to set-up one-timers in the Checkers end
  
• Appears to be a noticeable momentum shift for the Comets who are moving the puck up-ice considerably better than the Checkers
  
• Matt Petgrave (#22) goes end-to-end to create some shot-attempts for the Comets, including one of his own
  
• Josh Teves floats a shot into the breadbasket of Kinkaid, and Kole Lind gets in a bit of Lindstigating as the Comets are really turning it on late here in Charlotte
  
• First-line moving the puck efficiently. Reid Boucher (#24) draws in a defenceman before handing off to Kole Lind (#13), who attempts a shot on goal, but it's a muffin.
  
• Comets late surge pays off, as this one heads to overtime!
  

 

The score at the end of the 3rd period: 2-2 Tie

 
Fantastic battle from the Comets to even things up at two apiece
I originally had a point in my second-period musings that said the Comets shouldn't bank on getting another powerplay to try and even things up. But sure enough, that's exactly what it took, and Reid Boucher, once again, proves the COmets hero.
Loved the compete level from Kole Lind that entire third period. It genuinely felt like he was on the ice for 90% of the time — an impressive game from him to turn this game on its head for Utica.
 

Overtime

 

• Rafferty, Jasek, Graovac the first trio for Utica
  
• Not sure I'd pick the guy with one-eye, a guy coming off IR, and another guy coming off IR as my first trio to roll out in OT
  
• 2 minutes into OT and the Checkers have held the puck for the entire time
  
• Justin Bailey caught out on an incredibly long shift after going end to end to out-race an icing. Jake Kielly gloves down the puck at the side of the net, mercifully allowing Bailey to change
  
• 1:30 left and Kole Lind finally out for OT
  
• GOAL - UTICA - 3-2 Comets: Brogan Rafferty (#25) goes full god-mode as he dangles around two Checkers defencemen before drop-passing to Kole Lind (#13) for the game-winner! I audibly yelled, "what the fuck" at Raff's absolutely disgusting display of dangles to weave the puck through the feet of the Checkers' defencemen. Stoked to see Lind, finally, wind up on the scoresheet as he had nothing to show for an incredible game-played up until that point.
  

 

Final Score: 3-2 Utica Comets

 

Scoresheet

 

Period	Team	Goalscorer	Primary assist	helper	type
1st	CHA	Ryan Bourque	Joey Keane	Gustav Forsling	PPG
2nd	CHA	Mark Cooper	Clark Bishop	Jacob Pritchard	5v5
2nd	UTI	Reid Boucher	Brogan Rafferty	Carter Camper	PPG
3rd	UTI	Reid Boucher	Tyler Graovac	Carter Camper	PPG
OT	UTI	Kole Lind	Brogan Rafferty	--	3v3

 

Takeaways

 

• Lmao, Rafferty got the first star of the evening, but after having as many giveaways as he did, I don't know if I'd be willing to give him that much. That overtime play was certainly something though.
  
• Fantastic comeback win from the Comets to earn a crucial four-points on the road. Comets finish their night getting outshot 27-to-26, but the resilience they showed in the final twenty minutes of play was really quite something. Despite their best efforts at 5-on-5, the bounces just were not going their way. Checkers' fans can't even argue that the Comets were gifted a powerplay to even things up, as there was a blatant non-call on Lind mere seconds before Steven Lorentz' slashing penalty
  
• I said it a few times tonight, but Kole Lind had himself a statement game. The stat-lines won't do justice to the kind of work that Lind was putting along the end-boards that resulted in numerous scoring opportunities for the Comets. Linds OT winner was his 14th of the season, which now has him sixth on the team, with 0.54 primary-points-per-game. Reid Boucher sits first with an astonishing 1.10 primary-points-per-game.
  
• Carter Camper recorded two assists tonight, which has him leading all centermen with 32 assists on the year. Should Carter Bancks return, the team is going to have to sit one more veteran. Earlier this season, I chided Trent Cull for his decision to scratch Camper in favour of having both Carter Bancks and Wacey Hamilton on the starting lineup. Please write your local MP, should Camper get taken out of the lineup, because he has been integral to the Comets goal-scoring this season.
  
• Lukas Jasek looked ok in his first game back since injury/illness. He started strong, but later in the game, he looked slow, which makes me wonder if he's entirely over whatever it was that had him sidelined?
  
• Poor Sven Baertschi, I genuinely hope him leaving the game has nothing to do with head-trauma. He looked solid in the opening goings of the first period, but after that shakeup along the endboards, he became less noticeable.
  
• Brogan Rafferty had a game that fully encompassed why it is tough to project how he fits in an NHL lineup. He has tremendous skating and puck handling through traffic, with the offensive flair of a power-forward and the passing skills of an NHL defensemen. Unfortunately, he also has some of the worst egregious giveaways among Comets defensemen. Everyone is understandably excited at this management group finding another NCAA free-agent d-man, who's tearing up the AHL. Those same people have pencilled Rafferty into next-years starting Canucks lineup. However, can you imagine what Travis Green would do after seeing a tape-to-tape giveaway in the D-zone like the one Raff had tonight? Food for thought
  
• Jake Kielly, too, had a really impressive showing for the Comets! 25 saves on 27 shots for a 0.926 save percentage and a 1.88 goals-against-average. Not bad at all for someone making their first AHL start! Kielly truly did set the tone for the Comets after he made those huge stops early to prevent Charlotte from generating a lead. I'm sure Trent Cull and co. are relieved to see they have a backup who may be more reliable than they had expected.
  

 

Comets Three Stars

• Kole Lind
• Reid Boucher
• Jake Kielly

HM: Carter Camper
 
The Comets Trajectory?
 
The Comets win tonight moves them into second place, as they edge the Rochester Americans on regulation-wins. The Comets will look to maintain that place in the standings when they return home this upcoming Wednesday, as they take on division-rival, the Syracuse Crunch.
 
As always, if you want to read up on this Comets Harvest or the 2018-19 Farmies editions, you can find them all at my Comets Harvest Blog here

The NBA season hasn't started yet, but that doesn't mean that coaches should feel entirely comfortable in their offices quite yet. Circumstances change quickly, and coaching positions can change quickly along with them.
Through this (super long) post, I wanted to assess each coach's job security for this 2019-20 season. There's no simple or accurate metric for measuring this, so I'm going to give an estimated and subjective appraisal of their chances of getting fired, either in mid-season or at the end of the season.

I LOVE YOU, PLEASE DON'T LEAVE ME (listed alphabetically by team)

Golden State: Steve Kerr
After 5 years on the job, Steve Kerr has a winning percentage of .785 in the regular season, and 3 NBA titles in the postseason. In fact, the team's 57-25 record last year was the worst of his tenure so far. So yes, his job is safe. Kerr could coach the next 10 years there if he wanted. For Kerr, it's not a matter of job security; it's a matter of health. He's been able to endure his constant back pain in pursuit of titles, but will he have the same resolve if the team sags into "good but not great" status? TBD. chance of firing: 0%. chance of retirement: 10%.
L.A. Clippers: Doc Rivers
A few years ago, Doc Rivers was almost the victim of his own success. His gaudy resume had allowed him to take charge of the L.A. Clippers front office, and he simply didn't do a great job in that role. However, he wisely took more of a backseat there, and embraced the job (head coach) that he's quite good at. The 48-34 record last year re-established his coaching cred, and the new superstars should energize him for a few more seasons at least. chance of firing / retirement: 2%
San Antonio: Gregg Popovich
Along with Steve Kerr, Gregg Popovich is firmly in the "you can stay as long as you want" camp. And he nearly has. He's been at the helm for 23 years. Amazing, the last two seasons (47-35, 48-34) have amounted to Pop's worst percentages over the course of a full season. He's one of the greatest ever, and unlike some old veteran coaches, hasn't lost his fastball whatsoever. He's constantly adapted, evolved, and thrived. But as with Kerr, the question is whether Popovich is nearing the end of the road, for personal reasons. He's 70 now, and in control of Team USA. He may hand the baton off and focus on that job going forward. I suspect he'll give it a go in both roles until the Olympics at least, but it's no longer a guarantee. chances of firing: 0%. chances of retiring: 20%.

I STILL LOVE YOU, BUT WE MAY NEED COUPLES COUNSELING (listed alphabetically)

Boston: Brad Stevens
A season or two ago, Brad Stevens was the golden boy coach in the NBA. After a slightly underwhelming 49-33 season, we're starting to see some grumbles about his offense (which isn't as free-flowing and ball-moving as his age may suggest.) The Celtics will replace Kyrie Irving with Kemba Walker, but expectations aren't much lower. If the team can't grab a top 4 seed, those grumbles may grow. And if the Boston-Stevens love affair ends, would he start to eye a move back to the NCAA? Probably not, but we can't promise the marriage lasts forever. chances of firing: 2%, chances of leaving: 5%.
Miami: Erik Spoelstra
Although the Miami Heat have been mediocre lately (124-122 over the last three years), I'm still be inclined to group in Erik Spoelstra in with the "untouchables." After all, this is a 2-time champion coach with 500+ career wins prior to the age of 50 (48 years old right now.) Even if the Miami Heat underachieve and miss the playoffs again, I don't think Pat Riley would want to rock the boat on this culture. Still, Jimmy Butler is a handful, and potential addition Chris Paul isn't a bed of roses either. If Spoelstra can't get "buy in" from his new stars, then there may be more trouble in paradise than we expect. Again, it's a very small chance a divorce happens, but we can't give it a 0 either. chance of firing: 4%.

JUST DON'T EMBARRASS ME IN PUBLIC (listed alphabetically)

Cleveland: John Beilein
It's hard to under-estimate the leverage rookie coach John Beilein has with the organization right now. They lured him from Michigan with a 5 year contract, where he'll be "working for" a front office that features assistant GM Mike Gansey (Beilein's former player.) Simply put: they're going to hand him this team and allow him to build a program in his image. Despite that, it doesn't mean the transition will work like a charm (just ask Billy Donovan.) Beilein is 66 years old, and has never coached in the pros before. He may simply decide that he hates the NBA and walk away prematurely. Still, it's hard to imagine that happening this early barring any unforeseen health issues. chances of firing: 1%. chances of leaving: 5%.
Memphis: Taylor Jenkins
Although they have wildly different resumes and backgrounds, Taylor Jenkins will be in a similar boat to John Beilein. He's inheriting a team that's in a rebuilding situation, and should afford him a lot of patience going forward. The Wharton-grad Jenkins projects as a smart, modern coach who should have long-term success. Still, we can't absolutely guarantee Memphis doesn't fire him after 1 season, because they have done that before. chances of firing: 3%
Milwaukee: Mike Budenholzer
Based on pure coaching talent and resume, Coach Bud has nothing to worry about - particularly after a 60-22 record last season. The only reason that I'm even putting him in this category at all is the potential for off-the-court issues. He had been arrested before on a suspicion of DUI back in 2014, although he was later found not guilty. If something worse happens in that ilk, then he may be in trouble. But barring that, he's obviously safe. chances of firing: 2%.
Minnesota: Ryan Saunders
While interim coach Ryan Saunders (Flip's son) had been a popular pick in the locker room, he still represents a sizable risk by this new front office. After all, he's only 33 years old and hasn't been a head coach at any level prior to that short stint last season. He may be a home run; he may be a strike out. Of course, he'd have to be a wild strike out (with a bat thrown into the stands) for it to amount to a firing in year one. chances of firing: 5%
Orlando: Steve Clifford
Veteran Steve Clifford did a tremendous job in his first year in Orlando, helping the team improve from 25-57 to 42-40 and a playoff trip. There's a chance the Magic may stagnate in R1 unless one of their young players (Jon Isaac, Mo Bamba, Markelle Fultz) takes a "leap," but they should have patience with Clifford for at least another year or two. Barring health issues, his job is safe. chances of firing: 2%.
Phoenix: Monty Williams
One of the reasons we can't claim rookie coaches are entirely safe is because teams like Phoenix have fired them in the past -- including Igor Kokoskov last season. However, it'd be very difficult for any owner (even Robert Sarver) to justify doing it two times in a row. In fact, Monty Williams secured a 5-year deal to help prevent that nonsense. chances of firing: 2%.
Sacramento: Luke Walton
Despite mixed results in L.A., Luke Walton was a hot commodity with the Sacramento Kings franchise, who gave him a nice 4-year contract. Of course, that happened before the sexual misconduct allegations that surfaced since. While that appears to have quieted down, any new rumor or accusation may turn up the heat on Walton. Barring that, the team should stand by their man. chances of firing: 5%.
Toronto: Nick Nurse
Nick Nurse is about as close to "untouchable" as you can get for a coach with 1 year of experience. But hey, that was a heck of a year. Nurse won the title, and outfoxed several great coaches along the way. The Raptors could probably sink down as low as 30 wins (unlikely) and still keep Nurse for the long haul. chances of firing: 1%.
Utah: Quin Snyder
While Quin Snyder hasn't had a huge amount of playoff success yet himself, he's also quickly established himself as one of the better NBA coaches. Over the last three years, the Jazz have played lockdown defense and averaged 49.7 wins. This offseason has raised expectations, but Snyder should be safe for another season or two even if they slightly underachieve. The bigger issue would be if Snyder gets in trouble off the court; he had a wilder history in college prior to straightening out in the pros. chances of firing: 4%.

YOU'RE SAFE (FOR NOW) (again, alphabetically)

Atlanta: Lloyd Pierce
In theory, Lloyd Pierce should be in great shape here in Atlanta. The young team had a solid 29-53 season in his first year, and their young core projects well for the future. That said, expectations will rise over time. Pierce was partly hired for his defensive reputation, but the team only ranked 27th last season. With Trae Young (who graded dead last in ESPN RPM on defense), that may be hard to change. Hopefully rookies De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish will solve that issue, but if not, Pierce may start feeling some heat in 2020. When he was hired, the team only gave him a 3 year contract, which indicates that he didn't have much leverage coming in. chances of firing: 7.5%
Charlotte: James Borrego
Like Lloyd Pierce, James Borrego will be entering Year 2 in a rebuilding situation that should lend itself to patience. On the other hand, logic tends to go out the window when it comes to the Charlotte Hornets. Borrego will have to deal with a weak roster, and a shaky front office that just gave $19M a season to Terry Rozier. I expect Borrego will survive for a while, but we can't rule out a house cleaning. chances of firing: 10%.
Brooklyn: Kenny Atkinson
Kenny Atkinson has done a great job bringing the Nets out of a deep black hole rebuild, but now the expectations will vault up with the arrival of Kyrie Irving (and soon Kevin Durant.) Presumably, those stars wouldn't have signed up in the first place if they didn't like Atkinson. That said, their opinions can change at the drop of a hat. A disappointment in 2019-20? Okay fine. Another in 2020-21? Then Atkinson will start feeling that seat warm. chances of firing: 4%
Dallas: Rick Carlisle
As one of the most respected coaches (and a title winner to boot), Rick Carlisle should have job security for life. Still, the NBA will always be a stars league, and Carlisle's star isn't Dirk Nowitzki anymore. It's going to be Luka Doncic (and Kristaps Porzingis' team), and Carlisle will need to appease them to some degree. Missing the playoffs this year may be fine, but whiffing again in 2020-21 would be problematic; it would be the 5th season in a row without a playoff berth. chances of firing/retiring: 5%
Denver: Mike Malone
After a premature exit in Sacramento, Mike Malone has rebuilt his stock by lifting Denver to contender status. He's improved every year, from 30-52 to 33-49 to 40-42 to 46-36 to the breakout 54-28 record last season. Of course, that also comes with rising expectations. Like the others in this section, Malone could survive one regression year, but two disappointing years in a row would be a problem. chances of firing: 5%.
Detroit: Dwane Casey
Of all our coaches, Dwane Casey knows that one should never get too comfortable. After all, he was fired after a 59-win season (and a Coach of the Year trophy) in Toronto. After that, he still had enough leverage to earn a 5-year deal in Detroit, which should buy him quite a bit of time. Still, a 41-41 start was "meh." To make matters worse, Nick Nurse and the Raptors won the title without him (albeit with Kawhi Leonard.) Given Casey's big contract, he should be safe in Year 2 and Year 3, but there's hardly a guarantee he'll survive all 5 years of the deal. chances of firing: 5%.

10 HOTTEST SEATS (in order)

(10) Portland: Terry Stotts
Remember, this isn't a ranking of the best and worst coaches but merely their situations. In fact, everyone would agree that Terry Stotts is a very good basketball coach. In fact, if you asked the other NBA coaches to rank their peers, I suspect Stotts may even crack the top 5. That skill has manifested on the court as well. His Blazers have made the playoffs for 6 seasons in a row, and had a mini-breakout with a Conference Finals trip this year.
Still, making the playoffs doesn't lock in job security in the NBA; winning a title does. And until that happens, the franchise will always wonder in the back of their minds on whether or not they should pull a "Masai Ujiri" and squeeze Stotts out for a younger assistant on his staff like Nate Tibbetts, a rising star in the ranks.
After tasting the WCF last year, can Stotts afford to take a step back? Probably. Losing in R2 seems about right for this team as presently constructed. But what if they lose in R1? Then it becomes more of a debate. I'd still recommend keeping Stotts and tweaking the roster instead (ya'll got any more of them stretch PFs?) but I'm not in charge of the team and I'm not ruling any shake-ups out. chances of firing: 15%
(9) Indiana: Nate McMillan
As with Terry Stotts, it may feel strange to see Nate McMillan on this list. At first glance, neither should be on the hot seat at all. In McMillan's three years on the job, he's guided the team to winning records and playoff trips in each season. The Pacers just finished 48-34 despite Victor Oladipo's injury, and may be better than that this season with new additions like Malcolm Brogdon.
Still, we have to go deeper than the first glance here. Indiana thrives on the basis of their defense (ranked 3rd last season), which is heavily influenced by assistant Dan Burke and DPOY candidate Myles Turner. Offensively, the team tends to look a little scattered and uncreative, which has Pacers fans quietly murmuring about McMillan. They added some new scorers in Brogdon and T.J. Warren, but both are players coming off career years from 3. If they regress at all -- and this team regresses at all -- then McMillan may be in more trouble than we realize.
Am I expected that? Not really. If I had to bet, I would bank on the Pacers winning 45-50 games and McMillan lasting at least another season. But if we're looking for potential hot seat situations, we can't ignore the potential downside here. If they underachieve, McMillan may be the fall guy. chances of firing: 20%
(8) N.Y. Knicks: David Fizdale
We can't judge David Fizdale too harshly based on his 17-65 record in year one. After all, tanking and landing a top 3 pick was all part of the plan. But what's the plan going forward? After striking out with the superstars in free agency, the Knicks signed a bunch of B+ and C+ players to big money. With it, they've attempted to re-set expectations. Instead of landing superstars in 2019, they're going to land them in 2021! Hopefully?
In the meantime, David Fizdale should be able to survive until then. His team is still young, and features first and second year players like R.J. Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox, and Dennis Smith. Practically speaking, the veterans like Julius Randle and Bobby Portis are meant to supplement that rebuilding movement. Fizdale should be allowed to develop this group, and be afforded some growing pains in 2019-20 and again in 2020-21.
However, there are a few factors working against him. The front office may fancy themselves a playoff contender out East, which may go sour by the end of the year. Moreover, that front office isn't exactly on solid ground themselves after getting pounded by the press this summer. Dolan may want a complete fresh start after this year. More than that, there's a non-zero chance James Dolan leaves town himself, and some super-billionaire like Jeff Bezos uses his change jar to buy the team and mold it into his image. At the end of the day, there's more uncertainty with this situation than a second-year coach would like to see. chances of firing: 20%
(7) Chicago: Jim Boylen
As a well-respected defensive coordinator, Jim Boylen's name has always been bandied about for head coaching jobs in the past. He finally got his opportunity last season after taking over for apple pie Fred Hoiberg in mid-season.
At first, it did not go well. Jim Boylen had about as rocky of a start as you can imagine, earning negative reports in the press about his drill sergeant attitude clashing with the locker room. Still, he turned that perception around and had a decent finish to the year and earned some "buy in" from the players. Better yet, his Chicago Bulls may be a darkhorse contender for the # 8 seed. They have offensive stars in Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen already, so an improved defense may vault them closer to .500. Even if that doesn't happen (yet), Boylen should feel safe knowing he has the backing of the front office.
Of course, that also ties Boylen's fate to that front office. Ownership has tended to leave Gar Forman and John Paxson alone, but it's not a lifetime appointment. If this team doesn't improve enough (and wins say, 25 or 30 games), then there may be a total housecleaning here. I'm a little more optimistic on the Bulls' chances of winning 35-40 games than others, but we can't rule a potential disaster out. chances of firing: 25%
(6) Philadelphia: Brett Brown
After a long dark winter, Brett Brown and the Philadelphia 76ers have emerged from the "Process" intact. In fact, Brown has won more games in each of the last two seasons (52 and 50) then he did over his first three seasons combined (47). But with that comes raised expectations, which may be higher than ever. With Kawhi Leonard out of the Conference and the sheen off the Boston Celtics, the Sixers are the co-favorites with Milwaukee to make the Finals. Losing in the Conference Finals would be acceptable, but a R1 or R2 loss may be stinging.
Would that disappointment be enough to cost Brown his job? It's debatable. His contract extension runs through 2021-22, but that's never stopped a coach from being fired before. Fans may grow frustrated if Ben Simmons still can't shoot, or if Joel Embiid can't stay healthy, or if Philly's defense doesn't look as dominant as it should be on paper (despite Simmons, Embiid, and Jimmy Butler, they only ranked # 15 last season.) It's very possible that Brown becomes the scapegoat here.
Of course, we're talking "worst case scenarios" here. Chances are: the Sixers should be quite good and have a very good chance to make the ECF or the Finals. So while we can't rule out a firing, we wouldn't bet on it either. chances of firing: 30%
(5) New Orleans: Alvin Gentry
After coming over from Golden State, the exceptions for Alvin Gentry in New Orleans were sky-high. Suffice it to say, it's been an underwhelming return so far. Despite the (occasional) presence of Anthony Davis, his Pelicans have won less than 35 games in three of his four seasons on the job.
Oddly, Davis' trade demands may have helped Gentry survive another year. With the blockbuster deal, expectations get re-set and the window extends again. On paper, Gentry and assistant Chris Finch's run-and-gun style should suit this new roster well. Gentry is also someone who's earned high praise from his players and from the media in the past. If new execs David Griffin and Trajan Langdon didn't believe in him, they had the opportunity to make that change this past summer.
But alas, that doesn't mean they won't have that same opportunity again next summer. Gentry's contract will be running out, and the team may decide to go with someone younger than him (he's now age 64.) To earn a longer leash, Gentry doesn't need to make the playoffs, but he has to show reasons for optimism. The Pelicans need to find a clear role for Zion Williamson, and earn some improvement from the cast-off Lakers. There's a lot of talent on the roster, but if the team stalls or looks like a muddled mess, Griffin may likely clean up the picture and chose his own head coach the next time around. chances of firing: 35%
(4) Houston: Mike D'Antoni
Veteran Mike D'Antoni may start spitting out Rodney Dangerfield routines, because the poor guy doesn't get much respect. Despite a great run here in Houston (records of 55-27, 65-17, 53-29), he's still struggling to earn a contract extension from the franchise.
And while owner Tilman Fertitta gets the blame for that, we can't rule out Daryl Morey's influence either. Morey has stated in the past that he thinks coaches' messages tend to run stale after a few years, and that philosophy has born out in their decision making. Jeff Van Gundy lasted 4 years. After him, Rick Adelman lasted 4 years. After him, Kevin McHale lasted 4 years (+10 games). This season, Mike D'Antoni will be entering the dreaded 4th year himself. The Houston Rockets' job essentially has strict presidential term limits, and he's verging on lame duck status.
To up the degree of difficulty even further, the team added Russell Westbrook to the equation. That's not to say it's the wrong decision by any means or that it won't work out (personally I'd still peg them for a top 3 seed), but we have to admit there's a sizable chance that it won't work out. The chemistry for Harden + Westbrook is going to be harder to calculate now that they've both had considerable success (and MVP seasons). And if something doesn't click, it will certainly be easier to blame D'Antoni than the two stars, whose massive contracts run for another few seasons. chances of firing/retiring: 40%
(3) L.A. Lakers: Frank Vogel
It's rare to see a first-year coach listed this high, but this is rare circumstances indeed. Frank Vogel will be joining the Lakers on a 3-year contract, which is quite light for a veteran like him. That fact showcases his limited leverage and his reduced reputation. The Lakers didn't high the coach who guided the Indiana Pacers to the ECF; they hired the coach who led Orlando to 29-53 and 25-57 records. In some ways, Vogel is lucky to have landed any job at all.
But there's no mistaking the fact that this particular job will come with some challenges. Primary among them: the threat of assistant Jason Kidd breathing down his neck. According to some, Kidd was the first choice of the front office, and the conspiracy theory that they simply didn't want to hire him outright (due to domestic violence charges in the past) checks out logically for me. Vogel can't be too pleased to turn on the Summer League and watch his new star LeBron James sitting next to Kidd in Vegas either.
Will LeBron James, Rich Paul, and Jason Kidd conspire to stab Vogel like Caesar? The odds are high. But the question is a matter of "when?" James didn't love David Blatt, but allowed him 1.5 on the job before he got the boot. The Lakers may end up giving Vogel a full season and change to make his impact on the defensive end before considering a full-time change in midseason in 2020-21.
And hey, we can't rule out the "what if it works?" theory either. This team has LeBron James and Anthony Davis, for fuck's sake. They have a legitimate chance to be a great team, and even an NBA champion. If that happens, Vogel won't be going anywhere (at least, not for another year or two.) chances of firing: 45%
(2) Washington: Scottie Brooks
The Scottie Brooks era in Washington has been a disappointment, and it won't get much prettier from here. After the John Wall injury, the Wizards will be entering 2019-20 with one legitimate star in Bradley Beal and a wonky supporting cast. They're a motley crew of decent prospects who may be 2 years away (Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant) and veterans who may be 2 years removed from quality play (Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, C.J. Miles.) Realistically speaking, Bradley Beal will have to put in a Herculean effort for this group to win 35 games.
If there's any reason to think the axe will not come for Scottie Brooks' head, it's that this Washington Wizards owner Ted Leonsis isn't the "off with his head!" type. He's been patience with the Washington Capitals hockey team, as well as this Wizards unit. Former GM Ernie Grunfeld lasted for years past his expiration date. And in turn, Brooks may be allowed to play out another year of his (pricy) contract. Brooks also has a reputation as a good player development coach, which bodes well for his prospects during a possible rebuild to come.
All that said, Brooks shouldn't be investing in D.C. real estate. The clock is ticking. I would fully expect new acting GM Tommy Sheppard to cut Brooks loose and choose his own coach at some point, but we can't be 100% confident it will happen after this season or after the next. chances of firing: 50%
(1) Oklahoma City: Billy Donovan
Given his new status as a /NBA punching bag, it's hard to under-sell just how much leverage Billy Donovan had when he first came to Oklahoma City. We're talking about a well-paid college coach who had won two separate NCAA titles at Florida, and had resisted the NBA calls for years. He arrived in OKC with a 5-year deal in tow, as well as a reputation as one of the best coaches in basketball.
As we now enter Year 5 of that contract, Donovan's reputation has been tarnished considerably. He's been blasted for perceived underachievement, particularly in the postseason. With Kevin Durant, the team blew a 3-1 lead to Golden State, and hasn't won a playoff series since (losing in R1 three times in a row.) In fact, they've gone 4-15 in playoff games since then. Donovan's managed to avoid getting the boot because of his reputation and big contract, but those excuses won't hold off the executioner much longer.
Personally, I'm a little bit of a "Donovan Defender." I don't think he's done as bad of a job as advertised. After all, his worst regular season record has been 47-35. He's kept the team afloat without Kevin Durant. And sure, he probably should have reined in Russell Westbrook, but it's not easy to harness an MVP. The fact that Donovan won 48 games with a guard who jacked up 20 shots a game (at 50.1% true shooting) is oddly impressive in a way. And heck, let's even defend blowing the 3-1 lead. It's not like OKC woke up one morning with a 3-1 lead under their Christmas tree; Donovan used some wily tricks and unconventional lineups to help earn those 3 wins in the first place.
But again, these rankings aren't about my perception of the coaches, but rather my perception of their situations and stocks. In theory, this OKC roster isn't half bad and could flirt with .500 if they wanted to pursue the playoffs. And in theory, if they blow it up, then a college coach like Donovan may be well suited for that rebuild. But in reality, I just don't see an extension here. The marriage has soured, resentment has built up, and a divorce may be best for both parties involved. chances of firing: 55%

Hello, I'm RatherBeYachting and I welcome you to the first of my off-season shit posts.
As per the idea from jkd0002 that received a fair amount of up votes in contest mode to merit posting, with approval from the gracious mods, we will look at Eastern Bloc countries and their college football equivalents.
Why am I qualified for this most sensitive of tasks? As someone born in the Eastern Bloc, who has spent many a summer in the region and has been to a dozen of these countries I feel I could handle this delicate endeavor.
As evidence, here is an old picture of me in a weapons museum next to a missile. This one was suppose to nuke San Francisco!
If I don't mention your program or conference it's solely because I hate your program.
The Now Defunct States
Soviet Union: Alabama. Is there any doubt that this would be the USSR? Alabama has dominated the college football landscape the way the USSR dominated Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The most renowned leaders of Alabama are Paul 'Bear' Bryant and Nick Saban. The Soviet Union was synonymous with bears. As a bonus, Bear Bryant was known for his brutal camps at Texas A&M - as Soviet dictators were known for their brutal camps in Siberia. Nick Stalin has also brought his rivals to their knees, by the college football equivalent of the T-34 tank, the 5-star recruit. Roll Red Tide!
German Democratic Republic: Florida, Florida State, Miami, Washington. You may ask, how can one country be four college football programs? And I'll tell you this is my shit post, and if you're unhappy you're welcome to enter the transfer portal. It's probably not that bad in there anyway, or Tathan would have let us know if it was ass.
The Florida schools: relatively late arrivals on the college football scene, but when going at full strength they are athletically formidable. But we all know the real reason, when you hear the weirdest fucking story it definitely came from either Germany or Florida.
Washington: The East German Olympic team was known for great success and steroid use, much like the Huskies under Don James. Eastern Germany collapsed, the Berlin Wall was torn down, and Washington went 0-12.
Yugoslavia: Southwest Conference. The geographically close conference, like Yugoslavia, was destroyed in the 1990s. Former members wound up in the SEC, Big-12, MWC temporarily, Conference USA, and the American Athletic Conference. Several former members are still feuding.
The Current Nations
Russia: Ohio State. A traditional power which regained their prominence under a man of dubious character. Even when Putin was forced to step aside by term limits he hung around, just like Urban Meyer during his suspension. Ohio State is the biggest program in the Big-10, and despised by their neighbors, just like Russia. Despite the success of the program/country they remain obsessed with their neighbor and old rival.
Ukraine: Michigan. One of the undisputed blue bloods of college football dating back to the days of the leather helmet. Just like Ukraine was the first empire of Eastern Europe as the [Kyivan Rus.](www.historyforkids.net/images/kievanrus.jpg) However, both have fallen from prominence in recent times. Largely as a result of the rise of their aggressive neighbor Ohio State/Russia.
Kansas State: Belarus. Let's get the obvious out of the way, K-State's dictator has left the program, but the similarities are still there. Belarus' leader since 1994, Aleksandr Lukashenko, is often referred to as the last dictator in Europe. He is still in power and there is a high chance of instability if he is no longer in office, a way he clings to power. But wait, the similarities don't end there. The way Bill Snyder had been grooming his son Sean to take over his spot, Lukashenko is doing the same with his youngest son Nikolai. The 'pint sized dictator' accompanies his father to all sorts of events.
Clemson: Lithuania. You may think a basketball school belongs here, but Lil' Ole Clemson is the school that appears to be dethroning Alabama. Much like Lil' Ole Lithuania did to the Soviet Union when it was the first to declare independence. Having scored a victory over the Soviet Union, and a 31-0 win over Russia, Clemson is the clear choice here.
Washington State: Moldova. The poorest country in Europe, just like Washington State is one of the poorest athletic departments in P-5 football. Moldova is an agrarian country, particularly known for their apples and cherries - just like Eastern Washington. The fine students of Wazzu are also known for their alcohol consumption, and Moldova lays claim to being the largest per capita consumers of alcohol.
LSU: Hungary. The Hungarians are an outlier in the Slavic speaking Eastern European world. Their language is part of the Finno-Ungaric family, incomprehensible to Slav speakers of nearby countries who can find commonalities in their languages. Thus, the clear choice is LSU and Coach Orgeron. Előre Tegrisek!
Oregon: Poland. A nation and program that suffered for a long time under the boots of their neighbors, but began a rise to prominence in the 1990s. One of the quickest growing economies in Europe has transformed Poland, much like Nike money has transformed Oregon football. The Ducks record against Ohio State/Russia isn't much different from Poland's record against Russia.
Wisconsin: Czech Republic. Wisconsin loves beer. The Czechs aren't just the heaviest beer drinkers in Europe, they are also the inventors of Pilsner.
Serbia: Nebraska. Once a great power as the dominant force of Yugoslavia, a steep decline in prestige has affected both the Serbians and Cornhuskers. The Nebraska fans are known for their intense passion, Serbians may have got a little too carried away with their nationalism.
Notre Dame: Slovakia. Slovakia is one of the Eastern European countries with a large percentage of Catholics. In fact, during WWII the leader of the country was a Catholic priest named Josez Tiso. As the picture of him with Hitler suggests, Slovakia was a Nazi puppet state. He was executed for war crimes and crimes against humanity, which is a bit different from Notre Dame which hasn't executed great in their past few title game and CFP appearances.
American Athletic Conference: Macedonia. The AAC lays claim to there being a P-6, pissing off the P-5 conferences. Much like Macedonia pisses off the Greeks by using the name of a Greek region. Macedonia has to officially use the name FYROM (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia). The AAC could use some of that flexibility and not be afraid of scheduling a 2-1 series with a P-5 opponent.
BYU: Kosovo. The country with the highest percentage of adherents of Islam, with 96%, is an outlier in a region dominated by Orthodox Christianity and atheism. Much like BYU with it's strict honor code stands out in the college football landscape.
Kansas: Slovenia. Here's your great at basketball country, and your awful at football but great at basketball program. The reigning European basketball champions have gifted us Luka Doncic and Goran Dragic, while Kansas basketball has 29 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances and 14 straight conference championships.
Rutgers: Armenia. Rutgers lays a claim as the first college football program. Armenia claims to be the first Christian country in Europe, having adopted the religion in the year 301. Armenia is responsible for the Kardashians, while Rutgers is responsible for Artur Sitkowski's passing, so we've suffered at both of their hands.
Albania: Butch Jones. The first thing I thought of when I thought of Albania was The Simpsons episode 'Crepes of Wrath' where Albanian foreign exchange student/spy Adil Hoxha stay with the Simpsons. One look at Adil reminded me of none other than the Champion of Life himself, Butch Jones.
USC: Croatia. The former Yugoslav state made it to the finals of the last World Cup, so it's difficult to compare it to the dysfunction that is currently happening at USC. But one look at the Mediterranean style beauty of Croatia will remind you of Southern California. Granted, the country is on the Adriatic Sea and not the Mediterranean, but Clay Helton somehow has a job so things don't have to make sense all the time.
Kentucky: The Republic of Georgia. What, you thought Georgia would be Georgia? Hear me out. Kentucky's Mammoth Cave is the largest cave system in the world at 82 square miles. Georgia is home to the world's deepest caves, including one that is 7,257 feet deep. Spelunk away!
Texas A&M: Azerbaijan. Both of them have oil money. The Aggies coach is in the most expensive in the sport, and his name is Jimbo Fisher. Azerbaijan is on the Caspian Sea, home of Beluga Caviar and the most expensive fishery product in the world. Neither of them is playing Texas.
Oklahoma: Romania. The most famous Romanian of all time, Vlad the Impaler, stuck the heads of his enemies on pikes. Baker Mayfield stuck a flag on Ohio State's field, which is almost the same thing.
Texas: Bulgaria. This was the initial thought, since it's directly South of Oklahoma/Romania. But while trying to find some similarities I found something in Bulgarian history called the Bogomil Heresy, and it was confusing as fuck. Almost as confusing as whether Texas is back or not.
Oregon State: Bosnia and Herzegovina. A brutal war forced many people to flee. You know who else fled from a bad situation? Gary Andersen.
Ole Miss: Uzbekistan. According to the Corruption Perceptions Index, Uzbekistan is the most corrupt country in the former USSR. The choice was clear.
Stanford: Estonia. Known for it's internet freedom laws and online voting, Estonia is a burgeoning place for tech companies. The creators of Kazaa and co-creators of Skype are Estonians. What college comes to mind when you hear internet companies? Those Stanford nerds.
Minnesota: Latvia. Both like hockey? Check. Both have lots of lakes? Check. Plus, one time I got really drunk with some Latvians and they were really nice and I never asked them to say tacos but I bet they'd pronounce it tay-cos.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, arduous offseason, but we’re finally almost back to regular season football. Some of you may have already drafted your teams for 2019, but if you haven’t I’ve got some info that may help you decide which rookies to target. The rookies are always tricky to figure out. We’ve got no track record to go off of, and you wind up reading the tea leaves on coachspeak and preseason snaps to try and figure out what their roles will look like. I’m here to provide a little bit more detail on the relevant rookies for you.
These won’t be typical rookie rankings. Instead, I’m going to give you one interesting fact about each rookie and provide a little context to what it means for this season. Obviously stats can be misleading and some of these facts are going to help paint the picture I see for these guys. You should do some research of your own on them…I just want to provide some additional details you may not be considering.
I’ll separate the players by their expected roles for 2019. First we’ll look at guys who are slated to start right away, then guys who should be heavily involved rotational players or take a starting job early in the season, then guys who are a little deeper into the rotation or could win a job later in the year, and finally we’ll look at a couple of handcuffs/fliers that could move into a decent role if the starter gets hurt or falters badly. Let’s dive in…
Projected Starters:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI
Fact: In Kliff Kingsbury’s career as a college head coach and offensive coordinator, his teams finished with average ranks of 16th in points per game, 9th in offensive plays per game, and 7th in pass attempts per game nationally.
Kyler has been one of the more polarizing players in the fantasy community this offseason. A lot of fantasy analysts have already anointed him a fantasy stud before he’s played his first regular season game. These rankings are a big part of why he’s getting that hype. Kliff’s offenses go at a fast tempo, they throw the ball a ton, and they score a lot of points. We’ve seen new innovative offenses that get borrowed from college have big success early – from the Wildcat to Chip Kelly and the Read-Option to the RPOs that have been all the rage recently. Is the Air Raid the next wave? If it is, we’re probably all too low on Murry as a fantasy QB, especially when you factor in his ability to run the ball. If you believe the Air Raid will work in the NFL, you should reach above ADP to snag Kyler in your drafts.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK
Fact: As a head coach, Jon Gruden’s offenses have targeted the running back position an average of 147 times per season (126 in 2018).
Jacobs was an efficient receiver at Alabama when he got the chance, averaging nearly 12 yards per catch in his college career. He was drafted in the first round, which means the Raiders plan to use him a bunch this year. Jalen Richard was targeted 81 times last year. I’d expect Jacobs to take a big chunk of those targets from him. If the passing game work is there, Jacobs has a great chance to finish as an RB2 even if the Raiders struggle to run the ball efficiently.
RB David Montgomery, CHI
Fact: Since Pro Football Focus started tracking the stat in 2014, Montgomery has the two highest single-season totals of forced missed tackles (109 & 102).
Montgomery’s receiving ability is the biggest reason the Bears preferred him to Jordan Howard, but it’s his elusiveness that is going to keep him ahead of Mike Davis on the depth chart and in line to be the Bears’ lead back. Tarik Cohen will still have a prominent role in the offense, but Montgomery should be a borderline RB2 in what projects to be a dangerous offense.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI
Fact: In his 3 seasons as head coach, Doug Pederson’s leading rusher has averaged 11.7 targets in the passing game per year.
Pederson has seemingly preferred defined roles for his running backs. He’s had a different leading rusher each year in Philly – Ryan Mathews, LeGarrette Blount, and Josh Adams, and all 3 have been basically a zero in the passing game. Miles Sanders may be the guy that changes that, but Jordan Howard seems to be an ideal fit for the early down grinder role that Pederson has used. Sanders athleticism is off the charts, and he has a high ceiling for fantasy, but the risk of Jordan Howard having a bigger role than expected has me ranking Sanders behind Jacobs and Montgomery.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA
Fact: In 2018, Russell Wilson ranked 2nd in the NFL in completion % on passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air (46.7%) and ranked 4th in attempts that traveled that far (4.7 per game).
Metcalf was a deep ball specialist at Ole Miss last season before getting hurt. He averaged 21.9 yards per catch, ranking 4th in the NCAA. He has a size-speed combination that is reminiscent of Calvin Johnson and seems like a great fit in the Seattle offense. The lack of passing volume caps Metcalf’s upside, but he’s a great late flier in non-PPR formats and he’s a guy you should be targeting in best ball formats.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL
Fact: Former Ravens John Brown and Michael Crabtree combined for 54 targets in the 7 games that Lamar Jackson started (7.7 per game).
That 7.7 targets per game would be great if they were all going to go to Boykin, but the Ravens also drafted Marquise Brown as the first WR off the board. Boykin has been getting a lot of hype this preseason and has played his way into a starting role, but unless the offense sees a substantial increase in passing volume he won’t be much more than bye week filler in deeper leagues. I actually like Boykin to lead the Ravens in receiving yards this year, but that probably makes him a WR4 for your fantasy team.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET
Fact: In the last 23 years, only 8 rookie tight ends have scored 82 or more fantasy points (non-PPR). Evan Engram finished as the TE13 with 81 points last year.
It’s pretty much standard knowledge for fantasy players that you should fade rookie tight ends in redraft leagues in most cases. Hockenson isn’t an exception to this. The Lions want to be a run-first football team and drafted Hock as much for his blocking ability as for what he can do as a receiver. If you’re drafting him as a top-12 TE, you’re making a mistake.
Heavy Rotational Players:
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS
Fact: 2018 was the first time that Washington ranked lower than 8th in the NFL in completion % with Jay Gruden as head coach, and Haskins ranked 4th in the NCAA with a 70% completion percentage in 2018.
The motley crew of Alex Smith, Colt McCoy, and Josh Johnson managed just a 61.1% completion percentage last year, easily the worst team mark under Gruden. Case Keenum has only had a higher completion % than that twice in his career. Haskins’ accuracy should have him surpassing Keenum for the starting job sooner rather than later. He’s not worth considering in a 1-QB league, but could be worth a late flier in superflex and 2-QB formats.
RB Justice Hill, BAL
Fact: After Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB, Baltimore’s running back group averaged 5.4 yards per carry. For the full season, the Carolina Panthers had the best yards per carry average in the NFL at 5.1.
The Ravens went out and spent a pretty penny on Mark Ingram in free agency, but Hill has been impressive in preseason action. It seems that he’ll have no trouble beating out Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon for the #2 running back job. That’s a role that Dixon saw 9.4 carries per game in over the final 5 weeks of 2018. If Hill has a similar workload this year, he’ll be a viable flex option most weeks, and there’s a chance he steals even more work from Ingram as the season goes on.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL
Fact: Pollard had more catches in his college career at Memphis (104) than any other notable rookie running back in this class.
The Zeke holdout makes it very possible that Pollard opens the season as the starter in Dallas. He’s been working exclusively with the ones in camp. He’ll be a good starting option on your fantasy squad in Elliott’s holdout carries over into the regular season. If Zeke does return, there should still be a role for Pollard as a change of pace back and receiver out of the backfield. Zeke was targeted 95 times last year, but averaged just 7.4 yards per catch. The Cowboys may want to be more efficient with those passes. Pollard should be drafted in just about all fantasy leagues.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF
Fact: According to PlayerProfiler.com, Singletary’s speed score is in the 16th percentile, his agility score is in the 18th percentile, his bench press reps were in the 13th percentile, and his SPARQ-x score was in the 13th percentile.
Singletary put up big numbers at Florida Atlantic, but the athletes he’ll be facing off with in the NFL are on a different level than what he faced in Conference USA. The big question is can he continue to get by with such below average athleticism? The Bills should be run-heavy again as an offense, but I’m less than eager to buy the hype that Singletary is going to overtake LeSean McCoy for the starting job. If McCoy is a surprise camp cut, Singletary should be drafted as an RB3, but he’s not a guy I’d be excited to draft.
RB Darwin Thompson, KC
Fact: Kareem Hunt averaged 14.5 yards per reception before being released in 2018. Damien Williams averaged 7.0 yards per reception. Darwin Thompson averaged 15.3 yards per reception in 2018 at Utah State.
Damien Williams has been talked up as the clear lead back in Kansas City, and he certainly played at a high level down the stretch to earn that job, but it’s not far-fetched to believe Thompson can be a better receiver out of the backfield than Dame. Williams was never more than ‘just a guy’ before his stretch run last year, and Thompson has looked fantastic in the preseason. I expect Thompson to forge a role early in the season and should be a guy you target in drafts. There will be plenty of fantasy points to go around in Kansas City.
WR N’Keal Harry, NE
Fact: The New England Patriots had 164 passing targets in the 2018 season that went to players who are no longer on the team.
The return of Josh Gordon has put a bit of a damper on Harry’s outlook and is slowly dropping his ADP, but I wouldn’t write him off completely. The Patriots depth chart is largely unsettled after Edelman and Gordon, and Harry’s high draft capital should help give him a leg up on Phillip Dorsett and fellow newcomers Maurice Harris and Jakobi Meyers. There has been a lot written about Harry’s struggles to get separation, but it’s not for a lack of athleticism. His SPARQ-x score was in the 98th percentile. You shouldn’t be drafting Harry as a starter, but he certainly has the upside to get there and should come at a steep discount. I know we’re all rooting for Josh Gordon, but he’s played in just 22 games in the past 5 years.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL
Fact: According to a 2016 study, the average recovery time from a Lisfranc surgery for an NFL player is 11 months. Marquise Brown had Lisfranc surgery in January.
The Ravens have said they expect him to be ready to play this year, but reports out of camp are that he has a ways to go to be ready for game action. I’ll believe he plays in week 1 when I see it. Brown is a player that wins with his speed, and the Lisfranc injury is one that is tough to come back from at full strength in year one. If his speed is affected at all, he’s likely to struggle to make a big impact this year, or at least in the early part of the year.
WR AJ Brown, TEN
Fact: The Titans ranked 25th in the NFL in percentage of plays run from 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 RB, 1 TE) in 2018 at 57.1%.
No one seems quite sure of what kind of scheme new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will run in Tennessee, but most of the talk from the team has hyped Derrick Henry as the guy they want to build around. That makes me believe they aren’t going to be increasing this ranking much if at all. AJ Brown seems locked in as a starter in 3-WR sets. He came back from missing time with injury to immediately run with the 1’s in the Titans’ most recent preseason game. The question is if he is going to play ahead of Adam Humphries in 2-WR sets. If not, I’m not sure I see him being all that useful in fantasy as a rookie. The Titans offense just hasn’t been productive enough with Mariota to count on a guy playing less than 60% of the snaps to be a fantasy factor.
WR Parris Campbell, IND
Fact: In his 5 years as an offensive coordinator and head coach, Frank Reich’s primary slot receiver has averaged 6.11 targets per game.
Campbell is trying to work his way back from a training camp hamstring issue, but there is a chance for a big role right away in a potent offense – the Colts finished 5th in scoring and 5th in passing yards in 2018. 6.11 targets per game would work out to about 98 for the season. 38 wide receivers had 98 or more targets last season, and Campbell is currently being drafted as the WR60. I’m not saying you should move Campbell into your top 40 receivers, but it would be wise for you to be willing to reach a bit above WR60 for him, and then to also draft Andrew Luck name your fantasy team ‘An American Werewolf and Parris’.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF
Fact: Deebo averaged 9.5 yards after the catch per reception last year at South Carolina. The 49ers ranked 3rd in the NFL in total yards after the catch in 2018.
A lot of teams have done a great job this draft season of identifying guys who are great fits in their offensive scheme, and Deebo is a prime example of that. Kyle Shanahan’s passing attack consistently gets receivers the ball with the opportunity for extra yardage after the catch, and Deebo thrived at South Carolina with the ball in his hands. He should have a role right away in San Francisco and it isn’t impossible that he winds up the eventual WR1 there rather than Dante Pettis.
WR Andy Isabella, ARI
Fact: In Kliff Kingsbury’s 9 years as a college head coach and offensive coordinator wide receivers under 6’ tall posted 8 seasons of 800+ yards, and 4 of them were over 1,000 yards.
Isabella stands just 5’9”, but that hasn’t typically been a problem for receivers playing for Kingsbury. 5’11” Keke Coutee posted 93-1,429-10 as a junior in 2017. 5’7” Jakeem Grant went 90-1,268-10 as a senior in 2015. Isabella played in a spread system at UMass and put those numbers to shame as a senior, tallying a 102-1,698-13 line in 2018. There is a ton of opportunity available in Arizona with Hakeem Butler likely to miss most or all of the season. Isabella should be on your radar as a late-round target.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI
Fact: Johnson ran a 4.6 second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, and posted the worst vertical jump of any receiver there (30”).
Despite not being drafted until the 6th round last spring, there has been a lot of noise about Johnson possibly starting in 3-WR sets to open the year in the desert. That noise will get even louder with Hakeem Butler going down. The combine numbers are the biggest reason for his draft slide. They’re also the reason I’m a bit dubious of the hype surrounding him in camp, but he was very productive last year (95-1,340-8) and the air raid scheme doesn’t typically win with jump ball contested catches, so the vertical jump might not be a big problem for him. I’d prefer Isabella to Johnson, but if Johnson earns a starting role there is value here.
TE Noah Fant, DEN
Fact: 21.1% of Joe Flacco’s career pass attempts have targeted a tight end.
As of today, the projected starting tight end for the Broncos is Jeff Heuerman, who set a career high with 48 targets in 2018. Jake Butt is recovering from a torn ACL, and Matt LaCosse is gone. It’s tough to be certain what kind of offense new OC Rich Scangarello will run in Denver, but he comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. Shanahan’s offenses have ranked in the top-10 in pass attempts in 7 of his 11 seasons. If the Broncos are just at league average in pass attempts (550 last year), that would mean 115 or so targets for tight ends. Fant seems a good bet for 50+ targets even if he doesn’t overtake Heuerman. He’s an intriguing dart throw as a TE2 in deeper leagues.
Deeper Rotational Players:
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR
Fact: Through 2 preseason games, Malcolm Brown has played exactly zero snaps as the Rams have sat their starters.
With the fantasy community now believing that Todd Gurley’s knee is basically held together by tape and rubber bands, Darrell Henderson has been one of the hottest names of the offseason. It would make logical sense for the Rams to employ Gurley and Henderson in tandem like the Saints did with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Even today there are reports from a local beat writer that he expects Henderson to see 9-12 touches per game. No one seems to be talking about Malcolm Brown. The Rams matched a multi-year offer sheet that Brown signed with the Lions to keep him and have held him out of preseason games along with the rest of their starters. If he cuts into Henderson’s expected workload at all, it makes Henderson extremely overpriced at his current ADP. He’s one player I’m steering clear of this season.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN
Fact: In games that Dalvin Cook played in 2018, Latavius Murray averaged 6.8 carries per game.
Mattison won’t be more than a change of pace back so long as Cook is healthy this year. There is some question about that as Dalvin has played just 15 of a possible 32 games in his career so far, and Mattison has RB2 upside if something happens to Cook, but he shouldn’t be counted on to produce with Dalvin healthy.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC
Fact: Eight of Hardman’s 40 touches on offense in 2018 resulted in gains of 30 or more yards. The Chiefs led the NFL in pass plays of 20+ yards and ranked 3rd in pass plays of 40+ yards.
With the return of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs probably have too many mouths to feed for Hardman to really break through in 2018, but he’s an explosive playmaker that lands in an offense that knows how to use them. Hardman will be a fantastic lottery ticket in best ball drafts, and a good late upside pick in deeper leagues. He also led the NCAA with 20.1 yards per punt return in 2018, so he will likely factor in the return game as well. Be aware of that if you are in a league that gives bonus points for return yards.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS
Fact: With Kirk Cousins at QB in 2015-17, Washington ranked in the top 5 in the league each year in 20+ yard pass plays. Case Keenum ranked 11th in the NFL in 20+ yard passes in 2018.
McLaurin was a downfield burner in college, averaging 20 yards per catch in 2018. Case Keenum might not be a great signal caller, but he is more willing to push the ball downfield than anyone Washington trotted out at QB last season, and if/when he loses the job to Dwayne Haskins, McLaurin gets to play with his college QB again. McLaurin’s most useful place in fantasy this year will be as a late round best ball target. I don’t think the Washington offense will be consistent enough to make him a weekly option.
WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS
Fact: The Redskins played in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) on 71.9% of their offensive snaps last season, 5th-highest in the NFL. Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson, and Josh Doctson have combined to miss 54 games in their 8 professional seasons (Quinn 13 in 1 year, Richardson 26 in 5 years, Doctson 15 in 3 years).
Washington has already made it clear that Trey Quinn is locked in as the starting slot receiver this year, but Richardson and Doctson aren’t guaranteed anything, and no one in that trio has a great track record of staying on the field. McLaurin will probably get the first crack at breaking the WR rotation, but Harmon’s track record of production at NC State was impressive. He topped 1,000 yards in each of the last 2 seasons but plummeted in the draft due to poor testing at the combine. Harmon has already showcased sure hands and aggressive mentality when the ball is in the air this preseason. Those traits should serve him well at the NFL level, especially playing with a rookie QB. Harmon is a waiver wire option to keep an eye on in PPR leagues.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
Fact: Alshon Jeffery has missed 14 games in the past 4 years, and in his 2 seasons in Philadelphia he’s been targeted in the red zone 28 times (15 of them inside the 10-yard line).
JJAW has been impressing in camp, and he’ll likely push for some playing time this year even if everyone is healthy, but there are so many weapons in Philly it’ll be tough for him to break through. His real value would come if anything happened to Alshon. Arcega-Whiteside is a big target who was a red zone maven at Stanford, scoring on more than 20% of his career catches in college. He’d be a popular target for Wentz in the red zone if Alshon were out, and he is likely to be Alshon’s eventual replacement. Jeffery is a free agent after the season.
WR Preston Williams, MIA
Fact: Devante Parker has never finished higher than the PPR WR51 in his 4 NFL seasons, and that finish occurred in 2016.
Kenny Stills is locked in as the team’s WR1, and it will likely be Jakeem Grant or Albert Wilson starting in the slot in Miami. That means Williams’ path to playing time goes through Devante Parker (barring injury). Parker has been hyped as a breakthrough candidate each and every offseason of his career, but his production has made him look more like a poor man’s Rueben Randle. Williams was a blue-chip recruit out of high school who got in trouble for a domestic incident while at Tennessee. He then transferred to Colorado State and posted 96-1,345-14 in his only season there. His checkered past is what caused him to go undrafted, but if he can stay out of trouble he’s got a bright future. If he’s still sitting there in the late rounds of your draft you should pick him up.
TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN
Fact: Smith’s 710 receiving yards were the highest single-season total by an Alabama tight end since Ozzie Newsome in 1977 (804 yards).
That’s right…Smith had a more productive season last year as a receiver than OJ Howard ever did at Bama. He’s not as freakish of an athlete as Howard, but the Vikings have already talked about using more 2-tight end sets this year to get him on the field with Kyle Rudolph. I don’t believe there will be a ton of fantasy value for Smith as a rookie, but this is a guy you should be trying to acquire in-season in dynasty leagues if his owner gets impatient with the lack of starter production this year. If he continues to impress, the Vikings will clear the way for him to start sooner than later despite the extension they handed out to Kyle Rudolph.
Handcuffs and Late Draft Fliers:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG
Fact: Ben McAdoo coached exactly zero games for the Giants after starting Geno Smith over Eli Manning in week 13, 2017.
It’ll be hard to keep Jones off the field all year if the Giants end up playing as poorly as most people expect them to, but it’s safe to assume Pat Shurmur won’t make the switch at QB without the blessing of owner John Mara. Mara was quoted earlier this preseason saying “Eli starting all 16 games would be ideal.” When Shurmur was asked about whether there is a QB competition, his reply was “Well, you heard it from the owner.” Jones has looked decent in the preseason, but it seems unlikely he’ll play any time soon.
RB Damien Harris, NE
Fact: Harris tallied 226 more carries in his Alabama career than teammate Josh Jacobs did, averaged a half yard more per carry than Jacobs (6.4-5.9) and was drafted 63 picks after Jacobs in the NFL draft.
That stat isn’t a knock on Jacobs, it’s praise for Harris. Damien is an impressive runner who will have a ton of value if anything happens to Sony Michel. Sony did miss 3 games as a rookie with knee issues, and I’d expect Harris to slot right into that role if those issues came back this year. Michel found the end zone 12 times in 16 games last year including the postseason.
TE Jace Sternberger, GB
Fact: Tight ends on the Packers not named Jimmy Graham totaled 35 targets in 2018.
There just isn’t going to be much value for the backup tight end in this offense. Sternberger would become an appealing waiver target if anything happened to Graham. He averaged better than 17 yards per catch last year at Texas A&M and could potentially make magic with Aaron Rodgers if he got moved into a starting role, but I’d be surprised if he reached 40 targets on the year so long as Graham is healthy.
That’s all I’ve got for now. Hopefully this info helps you fine tune your draft strategy when it comes to the rookie crop. Feel free to reach out on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me about anything posted above or have any questions about rookies I didn’t include. I’ll be back in a couple weeks to give some insights into the week 1 rookie matchups, so be sure to come back and check it out. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article posted on drinkfive.com

By Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz ESPN Insider
How good will RJ Barrett be in the NBA, and where is he likely to land?
With the 2019 NBA draft three weeks away, Barrett is perhaps the most interesting prospect in this class.
Is he going to develop into a big shot-creating All-Star who shouldn't have slipped past No. 2? Or is that too lofty of a ceiling?
Our NBA draft experts dive into the questions surrounding Barrett, starting with what the New York Knicks might do with the No. 3 pick, where Barrett is expected to be available.

Is there any chance the Knicks don't take Barrett at No. 3?

Givony: There are few sure things in any draft. After I reported a couple of weeks ago from the combine that the Memphis Grizzlies informed interested parties that they intend to select Murray State's Ja Morant at No. 2, Memphis has been sending out some mixed messages. The Grizzlies' ownership group is still telling people around the league that the team is locked in on Morant, but the front office has requested to have Barrett in for a private workout -- something he has declined but might revisit over the next three weeks, sources told ESPN.
Barrett is scheduled to work out for New York on June 10. As I reported from the combine: Although sources say Barrett would be excited about landing in New York, the Knicks planned to do their due diligence by making calls on trade options and evaluating other prospects in the top 10.
One possibility is clear: The No. 3 pick would be a valuable piece in any potential Anthony Davis trade talks with the New Orleans Pelicans. Davis met with the Pelicans' new executive vice president, David Griffin, on Wednesday to discuss the future of the franchise, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
And in recent weeks, the Knicks have been considering a number of alternative scenarios with the No. 3 pick that don't involve Barrett, according to multiple sources.
New York has explored the possibility of trading back in the lottery, sources told ESPN, perhaps to acquire pieces that better complement potential high-volume All-Star free agents (such as Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving). Trading the No. 3 pick for the Atlanta Hawks' two first-rounders (Nos. 8 and 10) is under consideration by the Knicks, one source said. This is a similar package to the one Dallas used to move up in last year's draft -- trading the No. 5 pick and a top-five protected pick (which ended up being No. 10) to select Luka Doncic at No. 3. A move like this likely wouldn't happen until the draft was actually underway, as both teams would want to know which players are actually available with the No. 8 pick before consummating a trade.
In addition, the Knicks are looking closely at other draft prospects who might be in play at No. 3 but could also very well fall later in the top 10, including Cam Reddish, Jarrett Culver, Coby Whiteand Nassir Little.
Though Barrett looked like the clear choice for the Knicks at No. 3 following the lottery -- he's a great fit with the roster and should be ready for the big stage in New York -- there's still plenty left to be determined.

Is Barrett a clear No. 3 prospect?

Givony: Mike, what's your read on Barrett as a prospect? Is he a clear No. 3, and do you think he should be in the mix at No. 2?
Schmitz: While I won't go so far as to say Barrett should be in the conversation for No. 2 overall, anyone who doesn't see him as the third-best prospect is wildly overthinking this.
Barrett is (and has always been) at his best attacking the rim, putting pressure on the defense and using his 6-foot-7, 210-pound frame to get into the paint and finish with strong body control. But because of Duke's inability to surround him with shooting -- 327th in the NCAA in 3-point percentage, according to Kenpom.com data -- he looked clunky trying to bully-ball his way to the cup.
Just look at this:
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Barrett could have done a much better job of making the simple kick-out pass and finding a smoother balance between scoring and playmaking, but for a physical, downhill driver, this spacing is far from ideal. North Carolina was able to commit all five defenders in the paint, with Coby White helping off the strongside corner -- something Barrett will rarely see in the NBA -- to take the charge.
Here's a glimpse of the lack of shooters Barrett had to choose from:
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Even with Zion Williamson at the 5, Barrett still had no room to operate. Tre Jones is close to a non-shooter at this stage. Jordan Goldwire is most certainly a non-shooter, and Reddish is as streaky as they come. Barrett didn't display trust in his teammates consistently, and spacing like this is a big reason why he led the NCAA in charges, turned the ball over at a 19.5 percent rate in pick-and-roll and ranked in the 44th percentile as a finisher in the half-court. Barrett could have made a better play than barreling in for a charge here, but it's clear he wasn't put in the best position to play to his strengths at Duke.
What does Barrett look like when he has a spaced floor? Opportunities were sparse, but here's an example of the much more traditional spacing Barrett figures to see in the NBA.
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He's likely to have an NBA-caliber rim-protector patrolling the paint rather than Gonzaga's Zach Norvell, but the lane should have more room.
Even against a pro-level athlete in Rui Hachimura (though not a great defender), Barrett is able to get downhill to his left and use his impressive stride length to step around the Gonzaga forward, getting to the front of the rim for the and-1.
There's no question Barrett has to improve as a perimeter shooter to maximize his potential long term. Becoming a more willing passer will also allow him to unlock his playmaking potential. There are questions on the defensive end of the floor, as well, despite his tools.
But Barrett's so-so efficiency and oftentimes clumsy shot-creation moments were more a product of his circumstances rather than clear-cut flaws. Barrett's greatest strengths -- pushing in transition, attacking the rim with physicality and utilizing long strides -- were hidden by Duke's lack of spacing. The Canadian lefty should quickly show NBA scouts and fans alike why he was considered the No. 1 pick coming into his freshman season with all the makings of a longtime All-Star, so long as he's surrounded by shooters at the next level.
JG, what's your take?
Givony: I'm a little surprised by how quickly everyone seems to have settled on the fact that Barrett is clearly an inferior prospect to Morant -- a statement you widely hear among NBA folks. It's not something I actually agree with, personally. If I were making the pick for Memphis, I would be all over Barrett at No. 2, not just because of his positional fit on the roster alongside Mike Conley(although that helps), but also because of Barrett's overall talent level and modern NBA qualities.
These NBA playoff games have been eye-opening. The league's best teams have a big guard/wing in Barrett's mold who is asked to carry a huge amount of playmaking responsibility, both in the half-court and in the open floor. Having more size on the floor gives you clear advantages defensively with the amount of switching every team does. It also leads to numerous cross-matching situations in which the opposing team is forced to decide between giving up a good look early in the clock -- death in today's NBA game -- or having the wrong defender matched up with a team's best player, which is often just as bad.
Barrett is ideally suited for that big wing role with his ability to bust out in transition and make reads out of pick-and-rolls, as he's a much better athlete than he gets credit for. According to P3 sports science data from last year, Barrett tested very well relative to NBA athletes in acceleration and posted elite deceleration metrics, on par with James Harden.
He's a freight train once he gets downhill. He brings elite body control, and he's as aggressive as they come seeking out contact in the paint. He's going to continue to improve his pull-up jumper as his career moves along due to his outstanding work ethic, as he has already made huge strides in that area over the past few years. Combine that with his court vision, scoring instincts, competitiveness and the fact that he still hasn't turned 19 years old, and you have everything you look for in a modern NBA prospect.
Mike, like you pointed out, this Duke team was poorly constructed, which made it much easier for opposing defenses to pack the paint and force Barrett to navigate tight spaces while not possessing elite shooting ability himself. He's going to look much better with the ball in his hands surrounded by NBA shooters, especially as his feel for how to play to his strengths evolves into his 20s.
How strong do you think the case is for Barrett at No. 2 as a better fit for the current game than Morant?
Schmitz: In theory, there's a case. You have to believe Barrett is going to be willing to make the right reads out of pick-and-roll and actually capitalize on his defensive tools -- two things he didn't do at Duke, even if circumstances weren't ideal. If I felt comfortable projecting Barrett as an above-average shooter, consistently willing defender and unselfish playmaker, he'd surely be neck-and-neck with Morant for the No. 2 spot.
But he's never struck me as a natural shooter, hitting a career 30.8 percent from 3 on 341 attempts and 65.0 percent from the free throw line on 529 attempts, according to our prospect database. Although I think he's an underrated passer who can make ball-screen reads most players his size can't, he was dubbed the Maple Mamba at a young age for a reason. He'll always be wired to score in my book, as that's been his mentality his entire career.
Defensively, I like the fact that he can slide up and switch onto bigger combo forwards or gap guards and contest on the perimeter. But Barrett has never been the most disciplined or eager defender both on and off the ball, with steal and block rates both in the bottom 25 among our top 100 draft prospects.

2019 NBA draft

Get ready for Zion, Morant and more.
• 2019 mock draft • What winning Zion means for the Pels • Full draft order • Top 100 draft rankings
I do think there's some merit to the argument that Barrett is a more modern fit, with the traditional point guard position changing drastically. James Harden initiates his team's offense. Giannis functions as a primary shot-creator for the Milwaukee Bucks quite regularly. Kawhi Leonard generates the majority of Toronto's half-court possessions. When healthy, Kevin Durant can function almost as a jumbo scoring guard.
On top of that, I love Barrett's productivity, confidence and winning mentality, and I do believe he's being slept on as a potential All-Star regular. But I personally see Morant as the more special talent. Barrett doesn't have the same off-the-dribble, shot-making prowess of those aforementioned stars.
Although slight and wiry, Morant is a more functional athlete, better decision-maker, superior facilitator, stronger ball handler, more capable shooter and more explosive finisher. He's easier to build around and loaded with more upside. While clearly better on the ball, let's not forget the fact that Morant actually shared the backcourt with OVC player of the year Jonathan Stark as a freshman and still put together an efficient season while helping the Racers to the NCAA tournament. The fact that Morant is likely a (poor) one-position defender at this stage and ball-dominant offensively sways in Barrett's favor in terms of modern fit, but I'd bet on a De'Aaron Fox/Trae Young hybrid guard with star potential as opposed to the versatility that comes along with a player like Barrett.
As we're seeing with rising lead guards such as Young and Fox -- or more established ones in Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker -- there's clearly still a market for shot-creators under 6-foot-5. Morant has a rare combination of scoring, facilitating and shifty explosiveness that even the league's best guards don't possess. To me, his upside is through the roof, and he has the star mentality and fearlessness to shoulder the responsibility that comes along with maximizing that potential.
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📷Mike Schmitz✔@Mike_SchmitzJa Morant comparison breakdown from today’s NBA Draft Combine show. 1,9739:48 PM - May 16, 2019 · Chicago, IL

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What do you think is the best case for Barrett to end up developing into one of those big, efficient shot-creators?
Givony: Here's the list of teenagers who averaged 22 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists per game, or better, in college basketball:
...
Yeah, zero. According to our database, which goes back to the 1980s, what Barrett did this past season has never been done before. The closest comp we can find statistically is probably Penny Hardaway, who went to Memphis as a 20-year-old freshman and averaged 17 points, 7 rebounds and 5.5 assists, and then went back for his sophomore year and posted 23 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.4 assists at age 21.
Barrett isn't Penny Hardaway -- their games are very different -- but it's interesting to see how much nitpicking he has undergone these past six months relative to how productive he was on a flawed team that was ranked No. 1 for much of the season.
I put together a list of NBA guys who are excelling in that big guard/wing role we envision Barrett playing to see how his production in college stacked up in a few different areas:

RJ Barrett vs. big guard/wings

PlayerTeamMPGPts/40REB/40AST/40TO/40STL/40TS%AgeRJ Barrett2019 Duke35.224.28.14.63.51.053.718James Harden2008 ASU34.023.16.84.23.42.864.318Paul George2009 Fres34.516.87.32.22.72.059.218Kawhi Leonard2010 SDSU31.517.213.52.52.91.951.218Andrew Wiggins2014 KU33.920.26.91.82.71.457.218Devin Booker2015 UK21.519.13.82.11.90.960.418Donovan Mitchell2016 UL19.016.17.33.72.11.853.219DeMar Derozan2008 USC33.216.87.01.82.51.156.219Jimmy Butler2008 Marq19.511.07.81.51.01.062.719Luka Doncic2018 Real25.022.18.27.03.51.759.619Victor Oladipo2011 IU18.016.78.42.03.12.459.519Penny Hardaway1992 Mem36.019.37.76.14.12.853.420
The big takeaway here really is just how much some of these players evolved from when they were age 18 or 19. Leonard, Paul George, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler and Victor Oladipo had significant offensive limitations at that same stage. They've all improved dramatically.
It's interesting comparing Harden's passing metrics at that point in his career to what he has become, now leading the NBA in assists at 11.2 per game and one of the most dynamic shot-creating forces in the league. Barrett's numbers compare favorably to Harden's in some ways (Harden actually returned for his sophomore year after posting those), except Harden was far more efficient.
It's even more remarkable looking at Doncic's stats in this context. He played against by far the highest level of competition of anyone on this list but still rates out as being elite or close to it in nearly every category. I've thought about Doncic at times when hearing NBA scouts tell me, in a very proud tone, that they have Barrett rated "seventh or eighth" on their draft boards, which seems preposterous. There was a lot of that same talk about Doncic at this point last year, too.
Both of their games can be described as being a little "ugly" at times in terms of how they manufacture offense, though Doncic's efficiency as a scorer and passer far exceeds Barrett's. Doncic's incredible basketball instincts shine through just by looking at his steals numbers, too. This is one of the big criticisms Barrett faces -- that he was often a disinterested defender at Duke and that his poor steal numbers are an indictment on his awareness, anticipation and overall feel for the game .

What if Barrett ends up in New Orleans?

Schmitz: If the Knicks were to flip Barrett and young players/assets to the Pelicans for Anthony Davis, Barrett would reunite with Williamson (the presumed No. 1 pick) and immediately become a future building block for New Orleans. A young core of Barrett, Zion, Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson would be strong so long as the Pelicans could use other assets from a Davis trade to add shooting to help Barrett avoid the same problem he faced at Duke.
Although on a different timeline than that group at almost 29 years old, Jrue Holiday is an intriguing fit alongside Barrett, as he's capable of operating as a lead guard for stretches but might actually be at his best sliding off the ball, allowing Barrett to shoulder some of the shot-creation duties. He's one of the league's premier perimeter defenders, as well, an area in which Barrett has room to grow. That would put Knox in a much more realistic role as an off-ball threat. Robinson and Williamson would make for a dominant defensive front-court and an interesting 4/5 pick-and-roll combo, although I do wonder if Barrett would have enough spacing offensively next to that pairing. With Zion being able to slide up to the 5 for stretches, that could certainly open things up.
One thing to consider with a Barrett-Williamson reunion: Barrett, who isn't short on confidence, spent the entire season hearing how amazing Zion was while Barrett was amid a historic season himself. Even if they're close friends, how would he handle going through that all over again? Given his proven history as a strong competitor, Barrett might understandably have a desire to prove why he deserves to be the No. 1 pick.
But all things considered, depending on which other pieces would be included in such a trade, Barrett and Zion have proven they can thrive as a one-two punch, with Williamson doing all the little things and Barrett shouldering the shot-creation duties.

Typically, 4-5 coaches get fired every offseason cycle. There are reports that number may swell to as many as 6-7 this season (with 2 already in the coffin.)
The question here isn't: what coaches will be fired, but rather: which coaches deserve to be fired?
With that question in mind, the FIRING SQUAD SERIES will make those determinations and potential executions. We've already held trials for the AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, NFC South and NFC West so far. We'll hit two more divisions today, and finish out the series on Wednesday.
Some notes first: in the interest of length, we're breaking this up into divisions. And to save time, we have also established the "Bill Belichick Law," which states that coaches who are obviously safe will not face a trial. With the division title in tow, Jason Garrett has avoided prosecution in the East (along with Doug Pederson and first-year Pat Shurmur.) In the North, Matt Nagy and Mike Zimmer are off the hook, while we didn't bother to include Joe Philbin (who's most likely gone.) Instead, let's focus on the tougher calls.
So with that said, bang the gavel and let the trials resume!

NFC EAST

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
the defendant: Jay Gruden, 7-8 record, 35-43-1 all time with the team
the prosecution
Christmas is around the corner, and with it, festive and local traditions. In the U.K., we pop crackers and wear paper crowns. In the U.S., you Americans have a charming game of your own: you eat as many sugar cookies as you can, and see who gets diabetes first! What fun.
In D.C., they have their own tradition as well. You gather the kiddies around the Christmas table, and try to guess about Washington's record for the next year. Will it be 7-9? Or 8-8? Or 9-7? Or 7-9? Or 8-8? Or 9-7? Those are the only three choices of course, because they remain mired in a rut of mediocrity of which there appears no escape.
That is: save one. Firing their mediocre head coach, Mr. Jay Gruden.
Owner Daniel Snyder has been more than patient with this bootleg brother, affording him five seasons so far. In those five years, Mr. Jay Gruden has rewarded his benefactor with a grand total of... 1 playoff game (a loss, of course.) They have vacillated between 7-9 wins for four years running. When is enough enough?
Now. Enough is enough. The team effectively bet on Mr. Gruden's coaching chops this season by trading for (and ponying up for) Alex Smith, but all that did was dig them further into the rut. Outside of the warm embrace of Andy Reid, Mr. Smith's completion percentage dropped from 67.5% to 62.5%. His yards per attempt dropped from 8.0 to 6.7. His QB rating dropped from 104.7 to 85.7. This is what happens when you go from a creative coach to a guide like Mr. Gruden, whose offense has a strange allergy to the red zone. Worse yet, this reboot of "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" turned out to be the cold-hearted, grittier version of the original, with a gruesome twist ending – a snap of the leg and possibly the end of a career.
If Jay Gruden cannot make a winner out of a veteran like Alex Smith (who had been a playoff staple in Kansas City), then how's he going to do with replacement scraps next year? Keep that in mind for your Christmas dinners, and take the low end of those expectations. I fear even 7 or 8 wins may be too much to ask in the future. Washington, D.C. is a literal swamp, and the Redskins are about to sink.
the defense
Yes, counselor, the Redskins will have a hard time replacing a $20M quarterback who is on their books for a long-term contract. No shit. But unless they fire Gruden and hire a faith healer, a coaching change is not gonna help that at all.
The aim right now is replacing Smith and cobbling together some semblance of a passing game, and there ain't a lot of coaches out there more equipped to do that than Jay Gruden.
This guy is more than Jon's bootleg brother. He's a highly successful quarterback and coach, long before he showed up in the NFL. He went 82-54 with the Orlando Predators in the AFL, and had a winning record with the Florida Tuskers in the UFL as well.
the prosecutor
What a wonderful idea, sir! He sounds like the perfect coach for the new AAF. Or XLF. Or the BYOB league, or LMNOP league. Because he's sure not major league material.
the defense
Shut the hell up and learn something, redcoat. 'Cause you've been prattling on and on this whole week without a clue.
Anyone who does follow football here in the U.S. of high-scoring systems like the Arena League and the NCAA air raids are not being scoffed at anymore; they're being stolen from. Teams want uptempo, aggressive passing games like that that utilize lateral movement. The hottest coach of last cycle was Matt Nagy, who had spent his playing career in the Arena League himself. In that same way, Jay Gruden would be an in-demand coach if left on the open market.
Aside from his success in smaller leagues, he's also been a good offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. He's been an effective head coach as well. The idea that you can talk about his 7-8 record this season as a disappointment shows a complete ignorance of the context. New rookie RB Derrius Guice got hurt. Half the fucking line got hurt. And here was Gruden, trying his best to keep the team afloat with wooden sticks and hot glue.
And if it wasn't for those damn injuries, this team would have been a heck of a lot better than .500. Under DC Greg Manusky, this defense has improved. Recent picks like Jonathan Allen and Da'Ron Payne have combined with established stars Josh Norman, Ryan Kerrigan, and Preston Smith to take a marked step up in class.
Alex Smith's injury may cloud the future, but it shouldn't cloud our judgment. Jon Gruden's team was a good one this year, undone by bad luck. Don't make it worse with a dumb decision.
the verdict
We the jury normally believe that five seasons is more than enough time to judge (and execute) a head coach on, but the circumstances here may be the exception. With such poor health, the team had no real chance to live up to their potential. That potential may be capped with Alex Smith's injury, but it's hard for us to blame Jay Gruden for that. So given those factors, we recommend the team KEEP HIM for now, with the knowledge that he will be on the hot seat in 2019.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT LIONS
the defendant: Matt Patricia, 5-10 record, 5-10 all time with the team
the prosecution
Certainly, rookie coaches should be afforded some leeway and patience as they integrate their programs. However, I would like to submit Exhibit A: which reminds us that this same jury voted to execute first-year coach Steve Wilks of Arizona.
And with that precedent set, Mr. Matt Patricia should be held to the same standard. That is: some standard. Some burden of proof on him to prove that he's an actually viable head coach. Some evidence that he adds ANYTHING to a coaching staff aside from the crumbs in his beard.
Much has been made about the fact that Mr. Patricia is a "rocket scientist." Uh huh. He has a Bachelor of Science degree. In my family, we use lower degrees like that as toilet paper. As my grandfather, the great Duke Charles Charlesmagne Mountbatten once said, any man without a doctorate is not a man at all.
The more prominent B.S. degree that Mr. Patricia wields around is the claim that he is a defensive guru. Last season, Mr. Patricia oversaw a slow-footed Patriots defense that got shredded by opposing running backs to the tune of 4.7 yards per carry. If his goal was to install the "Patriots way," then job well done, sir! These Lions have allowed 4.4 yards per carry to opposing runners. Worse yet, they're getting torched in the passing game as well. Opposing quarterbacks have combined for 66.7% completion, 8.2 yards per attempt, and a 107.5 QB rating. Keep in mind, all these marks are a stark decline from the standards of the Lions' 2017 defense (under Teryl Austin.)
In fact, the entire Lions' team has taken a step back. Mr. Patricia decided to retain offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, but the passing offense has gone limp. Matthew Stafford is on pace for his worst yards/attempt season (6.7) since 2010. His 19 touchdown passes would be his lowest since 2010 as well. A man many thought would threaten 5000 yards this season will not even sniff 4000 (at 3511 right now.)
As we have now established, Mr. Patricia has made the defense worse. He has made the offense worse. Reportedly, he has also made the team morale worse, trying and failing to teach the locker room lessons about "toughness" that only served to expose his lack of actual answers or acumen.
So tell me, friends, what exactly is the difference between Matt Patricia and Steve Wilks again? Two rookie coaches who have flopped. If anything, Mr. Patricia had a more talented team and higher expectations. His failures should be punished in accordance.
the defense
Matt Patricia's first season may not have resulted in 50 touchdown passes or a dominant defense, but that can come in time. Clearly, Patricia and the team had other matters they prioritized first instead.
That is: establishing some kinda balance and some version of a running game. And to that end? Job well done.
Under Jim Caldwell's tenure, the Detroit Lions were the worst running team in the NFL. In 2017, they ran for 3.4 yards per carry. The team wanted to address that weakness first and foremost, adding rookie centeguard Frank Ragnow in R1 and RB Kerryon Johnson in R2. As a whole, the Lions have improved to 4.2 yards per carry. Johnson is a particular shining star, averaging 5.4 yards per carry on his end. Next season should be another step up there as the team gives more work to Johnson at the expense of over-the-hill LeGarrette Blount.
Patricia, for all his flak, has helped make sure this team has the will and skill to run the ball when needed. And for that, he should be praised. The team saw a weakness, and addressed it with precision.
Now? They can start attacking other needs. No doubt, Patricia needs some more horses on his d-line. Still, there are signs of optimism there. Injuries have sapped the effectiveness of DE Ziggy Ansah, taking him from 12.0 sacks to 4.0 sacks this year. As a result, this team didn't have a single impact pass rusher for most of the season. Despite that, the undermanned Lions defense has improved on their sack total from last season as a whole, up to 40 and counting. To me, that's a sign that Matt Patricia's scheme works. With better talent, they should only get better from here.
Patricia didn't come over like gangbusters, but he's helped make some strides. As he gets more comfortable with the post, and the team gets more comfortable with him, that should only improve. Patricia is built to last, and he's building a team that should be able to do the same.
the verdict
We the jury weren't entirely sold on Matt Patricia as a hire, nor are we sold on him after year 1. That said, it's too early to make a judgment in this case given his pedigree and his close ties with the front office. He merits at least another year if not two to establish himself. KEEP HIM.
the judge
Well there you have it, folks. The jury is in the Christmas spirit and spared both of our defendants today. Hope you all have a good holidays, and come back ready for blood on Wednesday for the AFC West.

Divisional Round Playoffs Seattle vs. Carolina: Pregame Report

Weekly Contest!!!

Carolina Panthers VS. Seattle Seahawks : HEAD TO HEAD

CAROLINA	VS.	SEATTLE
526 Attempts 2282 Yards	Rushing	500 Attempts 2268 Yards
3873 Yards 53 +20 Yard Receptions	Receiving	4061 Yards 60 +20 Yard Receptions
1049 Total 44 Sacks	Tackles	975 Total 37 Sacks
+20	Turnover Ratio	+6
103 Penalties 12 Declined	Penalties	123 Penalties 23 Declined
31.2	Avg. PPG	26.4

Game Information

	Record Against the Spread
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	8-7-1
CAROLINA PANTHERS	11-5

Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite: Carolina by -1.5
OveUnder: 43.5
GAME TIME AND LOCATION:
BoA Stadium, Charlotte, NC 1:05pm Day January 17th, 2016
NFL Broadcast Nationwide: Fox
Announcers: Troy Aikman & Joe Buck
WEATHER FORECAST: Stadium Type: Grass Temperature: 43°F Forecast: Partly Cloudy (4% chance of rain)
Broadcast Station(FOX) - Where to Watch
NFL Red Zone - Provider Participation Required
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Broadcast Information
Need A Ticket?
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Head Official will be Tony Corrente, who is in his 21st season and 18th as referee. This will be Corrente’s 15th postseason assignment, including 5 Wild Card Playoffs, 4 Divisional Playoffs, 5 Conference Championships, and Super Bowl XLI. His Super Bowl assignment was as a referee.
CAROLINA WILL BE WEARING WHITE JERSEYS.

In the Red Corner: Seattle Seahawks

We went over to /seahawks and got some great answers. Most notably darkmuta25 seemed to have a lot of information on each question. Here is his answer. Here is a link to the other responses which were all great. If you go over there please be respectful, they were good sports and we should be nothing less than.
Which players stood out the most last week?
Michael Bennett terrorized the Vikings O-line, blew up play after play after play.
Kam Chancellor, other than the pass he gave up at the end, was also good, causing the AP fumble was huge.
Jeremy Lane is playing like a lockdown corner tbh.
Russell Wilson, I don't care what the stats say, he played well given the conditions.
Our o-line, honestly other than the snap over the head, I don't remember too much about them, which as we know is a good thing.
Who do you expect to make the biggest impact in Sunday's game?
Russell Wilson. When it's not negative 10 degrees and he's not playing the Rams, he's been on fire, I think the loss of Tillman is going to hurt you guys worse than you think. In the first game we focused on Graham and the run game, at the time it was thought that was our best bet on beating yall. Now however, we have Baldwin, Lockett and Kearse, to go along with Freddie, Christine and and much better O-line, speaking of.
The O-line, I cannot stress how much better our O-line is since we faced each other the first time, it's night and day, black and white, peanut butter and something that is the opposite of peanut butter. If i'm not mistakes the stats we're something like 45 sacks given up through the first 9 weeks, 25 in the last 8. They're also opening up holes for Christine, who's playing really well. Speaking of
Christine Michael. Has looked as good as he ever has, him taking a ride on the NFL carousel has made him shape his ass up, he's focused and has decent run blockers, so he's contributing like never before.
Earl Thomas. The thing is, Sherman will shut down whoever he's on (Ginn I would guess), Jeremy will do well, so will the rest of the LoB, but Thomas makes game changing plays when they need to made, and I feel like Cam is the type of QB who will give him the opportunity to do so. Cam's been great this year, but his completion percentage is awful, and from the 6 Panthers games i've seen, he's prone to throwing two or three passes that could be picked a game. The good thing for him is that defenses haven't been making plays on those balls....other defenses however, don't have Earl Thomas, so good luck to Cam when he throws some ducks up.
Cliff Avril. The last guy is Cliff, basically because I have a feeling Caroline will scheme around keeping Black Santa in check, which means Avril will have to step it up, and he's more than capable of doing that, he's been a nightmare when he gets going, and as I recall you guys have one O-lineman who's been a liability all year (Mike Remmers), it wouldn't surprise me to see the Seahawks switch out Bennett and Avril to Remmers side the entire game.
Are there any key injuries that will affect the game?
I can say with complete honesty, no. The only player who won't play is Luke Wilson, who is a good tight end, but Helfet and Coffman have proven to be more than capable at filling in.
What concerned you most in last week's game?
The weather, Seahawks fans on here played it down, but everyone knew in reality it would be tough. I don't care who your team is, unless you used to playing in that kind of weather, which the Vikings are, it's going to affect how you play. I know a lot of Panthers fans will look at last week's game and say their not worried because we barely beat the Vikings on the road, but I'd tell them to give serious consideration to how the Panthers would have played in minus 10 degree weather.
Any other relevant information for this game that you feel like Panthers fans should know going into the game.
We were starting Cary Williams last game, I cannot, cannot stress enough how bad he was. Lane is graded as a top 15 corner by PFF since he came back,and that has been huge. Bobby Wagner didn't play last game, he's our best run stuffing/play making/coverage linebacker, he's been on a tear since coming back, cannot understate how important he is to our team, looking at last years team with and without him, it's that peanut butter and opposite of peanut butter thing I said earlier. We also weren't playing Kelcie Mccray or Deshawn Shead last game, do not under any circumstances underestimate how big they've been in our win streak, being able to mix and match DBs/Safeties has been huge for keeping our defense fresh in the game. We've gotten much better on third downs, most Panthers fans probably want to forget we we're leading in our first game, but one of the reasons we kept blowing fourth quarter leads was our offense's inability to stay on the damned field, hasn't been a probably since week 9 or so. Sherman is playing with swagger again, I know to Panthers fans that may not mean much, but I promise you'll see what I mean on Sunday.

HISTORY VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Panthers and Seahawks have met a total of 10 times with the Seahawks leading the series 7-3. This may not seem like too many matchups, but since 2012 the rivalry (yes, to those outside these two teams, it is very much a rivalry) has grown with each team facing off every year and once in the playoffs, making this Sunday the 6th time in four years the Panthers and Seahawks have met. These two teams have fierce defensive battles each time they meet with a point differential of 31 in the last 5 meetings. Not counting the playoffs, that point difference drops to 17 in 4 regular season games. Combine the elite defenses, mobile and agile quarterbacks, strong running games, and great secondaries, the Panthers and Seahawks are built very similar which usually means great games. The nice thing though is our offense is tough to figure out!
Highlights:

• 10/7/2012 - Charlotte - L 12-16
• 9/8/2013 - Charlotte - L 7-12
• 10/26/2014 - Charlotte - L 9-13
• 1/10/2015 - Seattle - L 17-31 - Playoffs
• 10/18/2015 - Seattle - W 27-23

Date	Location	Result	Score
October 8, 2000	Charlotte	W	26-3
October 31, 2004	Seattle	L	17-23
January 22, 2006	Seattle	L	14-34
December 16, 2007	Charlotte	W	13-10
December 5, 2010	Seattle	L	14-31
October 7, 2012	Charlotte	L	12-16
September 8, 2013	Charlotte	L	7-12
October 26, 2014	Charlotte	L	9-13
January 10, 2015*	Seattle	L	17-31
October 18, 2015	Seattle	W	27-23

(*) Playoff game

Players to Watch

Kawann Short

Unequivocally the best player on the Panthers defensive front, KK Short finished the 2015 season in rare form, wrapping up his second of two "Defensive Player of the Month" awards this season. This is the first time a Panthers player has won this award twice in the same season and the first time in NFL history a defensive tackle has done so. That's right. Suh, Donald, Atkins, etc....none could achieve this. Short is, in his third season of NFL play, quickly turning into a dominant force for the Panthers.
Fresh off a bye week, after soaking up a Pro Bowl nod and a 2nd team All-Pro rep (both his first), KK turns his sites on a banged up Seattle offensive line that struggles to keep Wilson upright at times. Short brings an 11 sack, 3 forced fumbles, and 36 tackle resume to the game. 2 sacks came the last time he faced the Seahawks in week six. With the defensive ends struggling at times, watch for Short to set the tone in the middle.
It will be imperative that Short, with his partner in crime, Star Lotulelei, bring their best game to stuff Seattle's run-intensive offense, and contain Wilson from his explosive capabilities out of the pocket.

Kurt Coleman

Back on the practice field today for the first time since his injury, Coleman's presence is a sight for sore eyes to a Panther's fanbase suffering through some serious secondary hardship. With the losses of Bené Benwikere and Peanut Tillman, the Panthers were forced to make more in-season signings to patch up their cornerback rotation. Practice squad stud Lou Young and Patriots castoff Robert McClain, as well as the now-seasoned Cortland Finnegan, will be on the field Sunday to hold down a secondary that really turned it around this season.
Josh Norman has been acclaimed (and at times reviled) nationally for his elite play (and edgy behavior) in his fourth year breakout season. His numbers speak for themselves and what they don't say has been covered extensively by NFL pundits since September. But the Panthers secondary has another weapon that, outside of local attention, goes fairly unrecognized for his performance this year.
Seahawks fans are no stranger to Coleman, either, as he was badly burned on a trick play the Seahawks ran in week 6, a fake sweep play action pass to Ricardo Lockette, who made a fantastic catch for a TD over Coleman's outstretched body.
And so the narrative would suggest a cause for concern, but Panthers' fans know otherwise as Coleman, like many good players, used this performance as motivation to work harder and elevate his game. Coleman was responsible for one INT prior to the October matchup with Seattle, and then turned it on afterwards, with six picks over 9 games...finishing the season tied for second in the NFL with 7 interceptions.
Coleman ended the regular season tacking on a sack, 9 passes defended and 90 tackles, which was third most on the team behind Kuechly and Davis. His presence back on the field after missing the last regular season contest, will greatly benefit the Panthers secondary, the most injury-riddled unit on the team.

The Return of the Piano Man

After sitting out almost the entire last month of the Panthers' regular season, the franchises favorite classically trained one-man wrecking ball is back just in time to compose Carolina's #2 ranked rushing offense against the league's premiere rushing defense.
Stewart finished the regular season as the #8 back in terms of production, gaining 11 yards shy of the 1,000 mark in 13 games of action. Before going down with sprained foot in the first game against Atlanta, Stewart was the third best back in the league behind Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin. His 7 combined TD's don't tell the whole story of Stewart, who has to share his scores with the #1 rushing QB in the NFL, as well as a pro-bowl fullback in Tolbert. It's not far-fetched to imagine Stewart would have topped the 1,200 yd/10 TD mark had he remained healthy throughout the regular season.
J-Stew is one of the most under-appreciated running backs in the NFL, due in part to missing so much time in seasons past to injury, and playing second-fiddle to DeAngelo Williams for most of his career in Carolina...one of the first teams to deploy a genuine running back by committee approach. But the silver lining in Stewart's career on a committee is longevity and Stewart has had an incredible resurgence since taking over for Williams late last season. He has not disappointed taking on the team's full-time tailback role. He's one of the most difficult backs in the league to take down and his ability to gain yards after initial contact is elite.
For anyone wondering if Stewart will be rusty from an extended break in action, note that he came off a comparable injury stint on December 7, 2014 to tune up the Saints for 155 yards and a score in the Panthers' blowout victory. He posted 78 yards and 2 TD's in Carolina's first game against the Seahawks this season. Expect a rested Stewart to find his rhythm on Sunday.

Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn, Jr.

One of the themes leading in to this game is that Seattle is "not the same team" as the one Carolina faced in week 6. Really there is no argument. The Seahawks went 8-2 down the stretch and, due largely to Russell Wilson, looked like their former dominant selves again in the back half of the season.
But this same sentiment holds true in Carolina. At the time when Seattle and Carolina met for the first time, Carolina was still struggling to find its rhythm in the passing game. Up to and including the first Seahawks contest, Ted Ginn, Jr. and Devin Funchess combined for 286 yards and 3 TD's in five games. In the 10 games since week 6 (Both were inactive for one game afterwards each), Ginn and Funchess have combined for 926 yards and 12 TD's.
The Panthers don't feature any premiere names at receiver and were a squad the NFL media left for dead when the true #1 option, Kelvin Benjamin, went down in the preseason with a torn ACL. This group didn't necessarily light the world on fire, but they outperformed expectations this year and contributed heavily to the Panthers league-leading scoring offense. Yards and production can be deceiving when you consider that the Panthers also led the league in both turnovers and turnover margin this season, taking the ball away a ridiculous 39 times. Playing on short fields provided by the defense allowed the Panthers to post up points on lots of short fields.
As the Seahawks plan to try and figure out a way to stop Third Leg Greg, who ripped off 131 yards and a score in week six, they now must also account for a much more polished group of receivers who also include Jericho Cotchery (Clutchery around these parts) who is always at the right place at the right time with the most reliable hands on the team. The Seattle defense will need to digest all of these moving parts, while also accounting for Stewart, Cameron Artis-Payne, and Mike Tolbert out of the backfield on two weeks rest.
There is another player on offense that Seattle has to account for, but I'm having trouble remembering who that is. Oh...that's right...

THIS GUY

The talk all week, and deservingly so, will cover the NFL's newfound conference rivalry between two quarterbacks that are changing the way the game is being played....Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. There have been many discussions about which of these guys is better...and with the recent success of the two franchises, is a matchup turning in to this decade's Manning/Brady contest in terms of buzz and heated debates between the fan bases.
While Russell Wilson hit the league by storm and has found a lot of success since his inaugural NFL season, Cam's elevation has taken longer to round in to form. Unlike Wilson, Cam had to deal with the loss of his first OC and waded through several years while the Panthers new DC fashioned the defense in to a premiere unit. Cam came in to the NFL with a lot of raw potential but not a lot of experience playing in pro-style offenses. His truncated (but very successful) NCAA experience made him a work-in-progress and Cam has spent several seasons making eye-popping plays with his legs, but being inconsistent with his arm. He had difficulties moving through his reads, putting too much juice on the ball, and sailing passes high.
This season Cam has made huge leaps in his passing game development, topping 3,800 yards again for the first time since 2012 with one of the most pedestrian set of receivers to play this season. His 35 passing TD's are his career best by a wide margin, and coupled with his 10 rushing TD's, made him the league's top scoring player. His trajectory continues to rise each season and now, as a seasoned playoff quarterback, has a lot of prove at home against one of his team's biggest challenges during his short career in pro football.
This week will mark the sixth time these teams have played in five years and Cam is only 1-5 in those contests, which include a brutal divisional-round loss last season in Seattle in front of a raucous crowd. Cam sets out to prove that he finally shed the Seattle Monkey off his back in October, when he went completely bonkers in the 4th quarter, completing 12/15 for 162 yards and 2 TDs in the last two drives of the quarter.

What to Watch:

Michael Bennett vs Panthers Running Squad

According to the folks over at /Seahawks , Michael Bennett and the Seahawks entire defensive line did an amazing job shutting down the run last week. This week with JStew coming back, CAP, and Tolbert there will be a lot for their D-line to worry about. Watch for JStew's return this week and Michael Bennett to see how he does trying to shut down the run game.

Russell Wilson vs Panthers Secondary

Wilson finished the game last week with only 13 completions on 26 attempts, but just keep in mind he was playing in sub-zero temperatures. The Panthers secondary has been superb all year and Sunday will be no exception. Coleman will be back which will be a big help to the secondary. Don't be surprised to see a few interceptions by the thieves this week!

CaMVP vs Kam Chancellor and the Seahawks Secondary

Cam the absolute monster of a QB he is will be throwing against some top tier Safeties and Corners this week. He threw 2 picks last time they played Seattle at the beginning of the season. One was purely a bad decision and his arm got hit on the other. Kam had one of those interceptions on Newton in their last matchup. This game will be one to watch for sure. Keep an eye out for Cam and Kam this Sunday.

Injury Report: CAROLINA PANTHERS

Name	Pos.	Injury	Status
Fozzy Whittaker	RB	Ankle	DNP

Injury Report: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Name	Pos.	Injury	Status
Will Tukuafu	FB	Hamstring	DNP
Michael Bennett	DE	Toe	DNP

Playoffs - Divisional Round Picks

Networks

CBS

	Pete Prisco	Jason LaConfora	Will Brinson	Jared Dubin	Ryan Wilson	John Breech	Dave Richard	Jamey Eisenberg
Record	155-101	152-104	153-103	150-106	154-102	154-102	168-88*	163-93
	X		X	X	X		X	X
		X				X

FOX

	Mike Garafalo	Alex Marvez	Peter Schrager	Jimmy Traina	James Parziale	Sid Saraf	Ross Jones
Record	163-97*	161-99	133-127	157-103	152-108	154-106	148-112
	X	X		X		X
			X		X		X

ESPN

	Mike Golic	Merril Hoge	Ron Jaworski	Chris Mortenson	Adam Caplan	Mark Sclereth	Tom Jackson	Keyshawn Johnson	Mike Ditka	Chris Carter
Record	155-105	162-98	161-99	165-95*	156-104	159-101	156-104	163-97	155-105	160-100
		X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
	X

*indicates lead dog

TOTALS

	CBS	FOX	ESPN	Total
	6	4	9	19
	2	3	1	6

Computer Analysis

	538	Microsoft Cortana
Record	175-85	163-97
	55%	57%
	45%	43%

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

• Nervous Nellies
• Update on the Chosen 1
• Even Sherman likes Newton

Reminder to not go into the Saints or Seahawks subreddit after the game on Sunday.

Last Note:

I didn't do any of this, this week. The team really stepped up while I had to attend to real life matters. I finalized a few things and didn't get a chance to read over it all and edit it properly. This is the most unedited piece and it shows just how good of a team we have. Great job to everyone. Seriously. Y'all have no idea how much work is put into these posts and everyone behinds the scenes deserves 99% of the credit.
Thanks to the team:

• appgrad22
• Captainsparrow11
• JCoxRocks
• Spiralyst
• ACraftyRooster
• Wu-Tang_Cam

KEEP POUNDING.