Welcome back to another year of projections for D/ST and Kicker (and QB...and soon others too). This is an introductory post to explain what's new, what to expect-- and to give draft suggestions at the bottom.
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TL;DR - Models are updated for reliability. I expect Kicker to be a difference maker, perhaps QB too in smaller leagues. D/ST accuracy should be safely up there with our #1 ranker, Reddit pal Seabruh. I will also release points-allowed for new positions: WR, TE, and RB1. I'll be trying out Patreon. Unless you get a top-6 option, don't necessarily draft a D/ST or kicker for another couple weeks. Expect a lot of surprises as always.
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Contents

Scope of what I do / What's new / Recap of last year / Review of what's in the model / What to expect / Draft Suggestions
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What I do

If you're new to my posts, what I do is try to generate fantasy point projections (1) with improved accuracy (2) for future week planning, (3) based on crunching hard numbers without opinion ("machine learning" if we're trying to sound sexy). I give special focus to fantasy positions which I think commonly have sub-optimal rankings: But Here's the Kicker, Defensive Maneuvers, and recently Two Cents for a Quarterback. From the countless hours invested developing content, here's what you see in the end:

• Weekly point projections from my own models, fit and cross-validated on historical data.
  • Semi-transparent methodology ^{(see the fine print}), so you can make best use of them
  • Multi-week forecasting, to plan your streaming strategies-- and to plan "hold" decisions
• Weekly accuracy reports, for my results and for select sources.
• Tailored consensus projections of hand-picked top sources
• Annoying analytical posts to bring you insights ("Damnit I was told there'd be no math!")

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What's new 2020

• Soon I'll also be adding "points-against" posts for forecasting WR, TE, and RB1 based on "newly released" statistical models. It seems these new models could have some value to offer.
• Full merging of my 2 old types of models (future-week "forecasting" and current-week "Vegas" models). No more Vegas "surprises" due to differing methods. Plus accuracy got better from this.
• Not that you'll notice it, the models really are more accurate and reliable. I removed a couple overfit factors, and the new formulas seem more intuitive, boosting my confidence.
• Kicker and D/ST each have an extra model now, to better sort the top-projected teams.
• QB: rushing yards are broken out separately from passing yards. You suggested it, you were right (of course), I'm delivering.
• "Expected weekly rank" will be reported, to assist your risk/reward thought process.
• Opening for Patreon-- I felt shy about taking this suggestion from some of you before, but yeah-- truth is that sometimes I could use a small boost of motivation. But it'll be fully optional, and you will still get the meat here on Reddit. I'll just find some geeky "extras", for those of you who want to support my activities with donations.

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Re-cap of last year

Last year was defined by demonstrating that my week 6 updates could boost predictive value: Capability to reach #1 for weekly kicker and QB, and top 3 for D/ST. I'll refer to you to my week 15 accuracy post, since the final ordering didn't change in week 16. (It was just a surprise crappy week for all rankers). Some extra notes:
But Here's the Kicker: Kickers ended up being tougher in 2019 because many high scoring kickers had an unusually worse second half. Part of this was because good kickers started missing field goals; see here. I think that was fluky, so I'm still expecting my updated model to differentiate itself in 2020.
Defensive Maneuvers: Only 4 of us in my accuracy analysis could surpass plain/stupid streaming (the strategy of using just Vegas betting lines alone). u/Seabruh repeated as top accuracy source, and all of Reddit should be grateful to have this guy around. No matter what accuracy metric I look at, he had another great year:
Measuring the 95% confidence interval of predictable fantasy points: How much each source let you control the score from its bottom-ranked team to the top.
Two Cents for a Quarterback: QB rankings were intended to be in "test-mode"/ beta-release last year, and the model surprised by producing top accuracy after my week 6 revision. Since it seemed helpful, I'll launch it again. Probably this is where I'll also put projections for the other flex points-against positions.

Review of what's in the model

Although I heavily guide the process, I don't choose what ends up into each model. I test >100 variables for significance, and cross-validate, add/remove/iterate, cross-validate. The method is multiple linear regression with a couple interaction terms, and the data is all in weekly time-series (no in-sample data, all foreknowledge). Additionally, I have a data-processing engine to: especially account for past opponent strength, to treat outliers, and to include the right ramp-down of previous season data. The rest is small print:
^{Factors analyzed include things like: game scores, betting lines, total yards, rushing yards, passing yards, TDs, home/away, dome/outdoors, turf, weather -wind, temp, precipitation-, day of the week, post-bye, win-loss record, sacks/FINT, positional fantasy points --QB/RB/Wetc. and RB2/WR1/etc.--, division, and some sensible products or ratios of these. Data from both teams is tested. Also all "factors-allowed" to opposing teams --for example "points-allowed"}. ^{Of course, most data gets excluded; usually only 10 variables survive to the final model. I have tested regularizing with modern Lasso regression, but the best lambda value is 0, which just means OLS is already optimal -- there are plenty more samples than variables; bias is low. I deal with team changes --like when entering a new season-- by adjusting "+/- 1 standard deviation" to the given factor, based on reports of the positive/negative expectations. I also account for secondary effects based on historical correlations. What do my models overlook? Mostly the weekly details that can affect lineups and usage. E.g. I might miss changes in the OL/DL for example, or all the effects of coaching changes. Also, my database could be more complete-- I only have 1440 games of data, and I miss factors like three-and-outs, yards-after-catch, time-of-possession, etc.}

What to expect

It's gonna suck. I mean it. So let's set expectations from the start. Blame yourself though, since you're the one choosing to play fantasy, and every fantasy football model will always sucks. Correlation coefficients are all under 0.5, and my accuracy improvements can't change that. We just hope my models will suck significantly less than the other sources suck. But... among the other sucky models, I do expect my KickeDST/QB to perform near the top (meaning non-sucky). For a review of how predictable each fantasy position is, here's the chart (more information in this post).
Expectations for predictability levels of each position, based on the past 3 years of correlations
Some reminders about expectations at Kicker: (1) My recent post about kicker streaming supports that, on average, my model should get you 9 points-- about the same as holding a top kicker in hindsight. (2) But, using the 95% confidence interval for season kicker streaming: There will be some 2.5% of you who unfortunately average fewer than 7 kicker points per game. (Sorry in advance....) Then again, another 2.5% of you may manage to get double digit kicker scoring all season. (3) To demonstrate how there will always be surprises, I thought this graph I showed last year did a good job at showing how the top-ranked guy can easily end up 8 points lower than projected. Week 7 happened to demonstrate nicely:
https://preview.redd.it/8qude1p6djj51.jpg?width=1253&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=49f0386d38dbd38ef7fc37d634626df477614649

Rankings and Draft Suggestions

I know it was cruel, I made you scroll all the way down here to find what you really wanted. These suggestions are based on: (1) Modeling all 16 weeks of scores, (2) weighting them towards the near-term, to find the most likely "hold" candidates, and then (3) assuming that you'll plan to stream, if you don't get one of these top hold-candidates.
EDIT 30Aug: Matt Gay might not remain the TB kicker. Stay tuned.
Draft options in tiered categories. For now, if your league doesn't hog these positions..., then you could count on streaming a kicker and D/ST later-- meaning you don't need to draft one now (instead, take a gamble drafting another flex). But if you can grab a top-6 option here, then you might as well do so. I know the QB information may not be so useful for week 1, but if you need a QB outside the top-12 (or your main QB has a tough week-- I'm thinking of Kyler Murray), then these should be decent streaming options.
Good luck! And I'll see you again soon with Week 1 projections, when we get there. (EDIT: just launched Patreon here for anyone who finds this stuff useful and feels like buying me a virtual beer.)

Week 04 - Sunday, 04OCT2020, 1:00pm

Detroit Lions v New Orleans Saints

Lions fan, coming in peace! I'm writing an article series where I predict the outcomes of Lions games using several methods, some of them logical, and some kinda bonkers. It was well-received last year, so this year I thought I would share the fun with our opponents as well! I hope you enjoy.
What the heck? I was surprised. Were you surprised? I was surprised.
How in high heaven did Detroit manage to win that? I mean, it took a last-second-miracle legging by Prater (who is my Lion, as a reminder for those playing at home), but they pulled it off. This week is a matchup that could be even harsher, but maybe this means we’re turning a corner in this young season. Could the Lions overcome the odds two weeks in a row and topple an NFC team that is consistently near the top of the conference? Could they go into their early bye at (2-2) and shock everyone who thought they had them figured out when they were (0-2)? Maybe!
For details about the methodology for these prediction approaches or an explanation of any rivalries, please see here.

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

If there’s one team you don’t want to be up against in a quarterback category, it’s...well, it’s the Green Bay Packers, for which I am eternally bitter. But if there was a second, it would be the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees is not a man that you want to have to square up against. On his best days, Matthew Stafford is capable, but this season does not appear to be leading up to that. Stafford’s QBR of 60.7 is only good for 19th in the league this season, so “latest” Stafford isn’t necessarily up to snuff with “greatest” Stafford. Brees, on the other hand, is sitting at 80.3, ranking 6th in the league.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Passer Rating disagreed with QBR last week, and that was to its benefit as it trusted Stafford over Kyler Murray (both of whom are on my fantasy team, go figure). This time around, however, the gravity of Drew Brees is too much to overcome, and the two ratings are back to agreeing. Stafford has a 93.7, ranking 19th, compared to Drew Brees’s 106.2 in 9th.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Detroit was a surprise last week, managing 3 interceptions after 0 through the first pair of games. They weren’t able to capitalize on them very well, but WHO CARES that’s not what this prediction is about! It kind of assumes that you can make use of those turnovers, and if that’s to its detriment then it’s to its detriment. Point is, Detroit is at a +1 when you weigh those 3 INTs against 2 that they’ve thrown themselves.
The Saints, on the other hand, have taken 2 INTs and 2 fumbles, while giving up 1 of each. That works out to a +2, so they win this round regardless of whether or not Detroit can make a takeaway work.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

New Orleans isn’t setting the world on fire this year, but they’re in the top third of the league in 10th with 29.3 points per game. Detroit, on the other hand, is in the bottom third, in 23rd with 23.3 points per game. It’s doesn’t sound like much at only one touchdown per game, but, really, “only” one touchdown per game is quite a lot if you could take it for granted. If it’s a shootout, this team is dangerous for Detroit.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Detroit’s (3-12-1) is a real albatross around their neck for this category. It’s going to be rare that they get this pick. This week is no exception, as the Saints led their division with an impressive (13-3) record.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record Record: (3-0) / 100.0%

I was shocked by how far down the list the Saints were. I think of them as being a consistent force in the conference, and yet...
Detroit Lions: (563-672-33) / 45.7%
New Orleans Saints: (376-440-5) / 46.1%
...they only beat Detroit by one single position on the all-time “leaderboard”. So for total team histories, the precedent favors Detroit.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Lions:

Matt Patricia: 2 years as a head coach Darrell Bevell: 14 years as an offensive coordinator Cory Undlin: 0 years as an defensive coordinator Brayden Coombs: 0 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 16 years

Bevell got years.
Saints:

Sean Payton: 14 years as a head coach Peter Carmichael Jr.: 11 years as an offensive coordinator* Dennis Allen: 6 years as an defensive coordinator Darren Rizzi: 8 years as a special teams coordinator* Total: 39 years

Sean Payton alone has as much experience as the entire Cardinals coaching staff did last week, and the lot of his crew crushes Detroit this week. This is by far the heaviest hitter for years on the job that we’ve seen this season.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Lions

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Saints

5) Michael Thomas, WR 12) Drew Brees, QB 23) Cameron Jordan, DE 42) Alvin Kamara, RB 67) Demario Davis, OLB 76) Marshon Lattimore, CB 82) Ryan Ramczyk, OT

I could have simply skipped this by quoting the article’s header, “The New Orleans Saints had the most selections with 7”. Quite frankly, though, I wanted to see all of those names written out. No sass, this is impressive. Especially so because, remember, this is voted on by players.
Of course, I must note that two of these players will be injured this week. No less impressive, but perhaps maybe (SLIGHTLY) less impactful for this prediction.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Prediction Method 9: Madden 21 Simulation Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

The virtual Lions went into this week at (0-3), and they looked weak enough to continue that trend. At halftime, they were losing 7-0. They managed to pull to an even 14-14, but with 0:03 left in the game, they were back to losing at 21-17.
Did my phrasing leave it open to a miracle comeback? Yeah, no. Didn’t happen. These Lions are doing even worse than the real ones.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

Detroit started this one strong by...throwing an interception on the very first play of the game. Whoops. Things could have been worse, though, as New Orleans was only able to fire back with a field goal. Detroit gets back on track from their previous interception by marching downfield and...throwing an interception on the 5-yard line. What is going on, 8-bit Stafford?? Next, a pair of downright insane runs from Alvin Kamara get New Orleans into the redzone. Passes are ineffective, but one more run play gets the Saints into the endzone for the first time. Detroit is forced to punt on their next possession, and this time around Drew Brees is on his game. A few impressive passes put Alvin Kamara in position to score again. Getting the ball back, the Lions offense finally finds its legs...but with time running out in the first half, they're forced to give up on a touchdown and rely on a single leg as Prater splits the uprights.
17-3 Saints at the half.
New Orleans starts the 3rd with the ball, but the turnovers begin to balance as a long reception ends in a fumble that Detroit seizes. Then the turnovers begin to laugh in our faces as a Detroit fumble very nearly becomes a New Orleans touchdown. Like, VERY VERY NEARLY. Look at that. Two broken tackles, and that's where we finally stop the guy. Unfortunately, against this offense, that merely delays the inevitable. One play later, the score ticks upward once more. The teams continue to play hot potato instead of football, with turnovers bringing the ball back to the Saints and back back to the Lions. Unfortunately, the opportunity that this presents to Detroit is wasted, as an incomplete pass is followed by three sacks in a row, giving New Orleans the ball with a short field. Surprising absolutely none of you, this turns into even more points with a single long pass that's caught in the endzone. At this point I'm beyond ready for this game to be over, but we still have most of the 4th quarter left. Detroit finally finally finally manages to put up 6, but it merely feels insulting to me as a viewer. This one is long gone, boys. My only proper solace is that Marvin Jones got "vgeta" to start his image URL.
Detroit's onside kick doesn't work, and is returned all the way to the 5-yard line, at which point Alvin Kamara spits in our drink with 0:00 left on the clock, just for good measure.
Final score, 38-10 Saints.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick Record: (0-3) / 0.0%

Fen is really struggling this year, and she’s the competitive sort, so you can bet that she’s making her absolute best choices by now, in order to finally get on the board. This week, that choice is Detroit, so she has true faith.
Best of luck, puppy girl.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Unlike Fen (and probably to Fen’s great irritation), Elena isn’t taking this very seriously yet is happily cruising along with a solid record. She’s just excited to be participating. We’ll see if that excitement allows her to continue dominating this rivalry, as she chose against her big sister. I will say that, for some reason, she picked up both treats and put them in the middle before eating them. Maybe she expects another close game like Detroit had last week?
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

“So who do you think is going to win this week?”
“Who are we playing?”
“This week is the Saints. In Detroit.”
“I am not convinced that our win last week wasn’t a complete fluke, and also the Saints are wayyy better than us. So...I’m going to say the Saints. I refuse to get my hopes up.”
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

“Lions! Saints! Who wins?”
“Lions and...who?”
“The Saints.”
“The Saints. Where are the Saints from?”
“They are from New Orleans.”
“Umm...well...I don’t know their record, and Detroit lost...zero...one...I’m gonna go with Detroit. I’m thinking that maybe since they won last week, that’ll give them the drive to go two in a row.”
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

While the average points per game are exactly one touchdown apart, OddsShark is willing to go out a tiny bit farther than that on this limb. Their predicted score is 28.2 - 21.9 Saints. It’s only 0.3 points more than that one touchdown, but it’s always deliberate with oddsmakers.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 16: My Pick Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

Detroit is in pretty good shape this week. We’re coming off of a win that nobody expected, a win that came on the back of some players returning from injury and some honest-to-real adaptability and growth in the playcalling. Pile that onto some very, very key Saints injuries, and seldom before has an upset looked less upsetting. Or not upsetting at all. Whatever. It’s wordplay, shut up.
And yet, I find myself unconvinced. Even after last week, I am still a Quinntricia 2020 skeptic. I am skeptical of the moment-to-moment decision-making during games. I am skeptical of gameday personnel decisions. I am skeptical of the playcalling, and dammit, despite the willingness to use more zone coverage last week, I am skeptical as hell about this defense.
So in the end, I’m torn. I think Detroit is in a good position to pull this off, and I won’t be stunned if they do (though no small amount of that falls on the Saints being in an unusually weak position this week). I don’t expect them to, though, and I just can’t be comfortable making that call. I hope I’m wrong.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

The coin was guaranteed to stray from its 50-50 split last week, but it shocked us by the way in which it did so (that is, successfully picking the Lions to win). This week it opts to pick the Saints. The real question is: Is this a genuine pick, or is the sentient coin deliberately making the wrong choice in order to get back to 50-50?
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

IF YOU BELIEVE SAINTS FANS, THE SAINTS MAY BE THE ONLY TEAM THAT THE NFL HATES MORE THAN DETROIT. SO YOU KNOW WHAT? LET’S TAKE THEM AT THEIR WORD. PUT THAT ENERGY OUT INTO THE UNIVERSE AND MAKE IT REALITY.
IT’S OUR REALITY NOW.
IF THERE IS EVER A TIME FOR US TO CASH IN ON THE GOOD FEELINGS OF WATCHING AN OFFICIATING TEAM HAMSTRING YOUR OPPONENT, THAT TIME IS NOW. ONE OF US WILL PROBABLY GET TO ENJOY THAT SENSATION THIS WEEK. I POSIT THAT IT IS DETROIT, BECAUSE FUCK YOU THAT’S WHY.
END OF SEGMENT.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Summary

Raw Prediction: New Orleans Saints (4 for Detroit Lions, 14 for New Orleans Saints) Raw Prediction record: (1-2) / 33.3%
Weighted Prediction: New Orleans Saints (2.0 for Detroit Lions, 7.7 for New Orleans Saints) Weighted Prediction record: (1-2) / 33.3%
So it turns out that the win last week didn’t really move the needle here. Both the Raw and Weighted Predictions are in agreement, again, that Detroit won’t be celebrating Victory Monday. In fact, they feel even stronger about it this week than they did last week. They were indeed wrong last week, though (as was I, and I would wager many of you), so don’t lose all hope if you’re in the Honolulu Blue corner. Just...be wary, eh?

2019 Summary

Division: NFC West
Record: 9-7 (3rd in Division, 7th in Conference)
After a wildly successful 2019 season, the Los Angeles Rams had high hopes for 2020. It was truly Super Bowl or bust for the team, and unfortunately as high as the expectations were the end result was disappointment almost as high. Despite the shortcomings (and media doubt), the team is still in great shape to have another great year and playoff hopes are completely within shooting distance. Here's a brief summary of some of the positives and negatives on the 2019 season.
Positives

• Over half of our draft class showed real signs of being potential starters for 2020. Bobby Evans and David Edwards stepped in due to injuries and had success. Taylor Rapp was one of the leagues best rookie defenders, and will definitely start in 2020. David Long Jr filled in due to injury occasionally through the year and showed a glimpse of the player he could be after some development.
  
• Cooper Kupp emerging as a potential top 10 WR. I'm just going to lean into the joke, because the dude is honestly the scrappiest WR we've had in a long time, and he puts in serious work. He can make a decent argument for being in the conversation as the best route runner in the NFL.
  
• Despite the season being a disappointment as mentioned above, the fact that as a Rams fan I can look at a year where we went 9-7 and narrowly missed the playoffs as a disappointment has to be viewed as a positive. I've been a fan for my entire life, and wallowing in the years from 2006-2016 has been pretty rough. To have expectations again is nice.
  

Negatives

• Jared Goff, the most frustrating QB next to Jameis Winston. His rookie year can hardly be counted against him, so after seeing him have a pretty successful 2017 and then a flat out great 2018 was tremendous, and really set the bar high in 2019. To be frank, Jared Goff managed to disappoint in many games this year. Almost off of this disappointment can be attributed to overconfidence rather than bad decisions. Goff doesn't have an issue reading defenses consistently rather he has an issue with thinking he can fit throws in tight windows that he can't consistently place. Taking what the defense gives him has been a problem for Goff throughout his career and in 2019 it was on full display.
  
• We had one of the most predictable defenses in 2019, and having star players like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey would rightfully make fans think some level of razzle dazzle could be drawn up. We never really saw that in 2019 and teams took advantage.
  
• Our run game never could be consistently established. Our offense starts with the OL and the zone blocking scheme, and with the decline of Todd Gurley, and many injuries sustained on the OL, the run game could hardly ever get established.
  

2020 Coaching Staff/Changes

Position	Name (* indicates new coach)	Notes
Sean McVay	Head Coach	Total babe
Joe Berry	Assistant Head Coach/Linebackers Coach
Thad Bogardus	Assistant Defensive Line Coach/Defensive Quality Control	Dope name
John Bonamego	Special Teams Coordinator*	Previously with the Detroit Lions
Thomas Brown	Running Backs Coach*	Previously with the South Carolina Gamecocks
Liam Coen	Assistant Quarterbacks Coach	Previously WRs coach
John Cooley	Defensive Quality Control*	Previously Akron CBs Coach
Andy Dickerson	Assistant Offensive Line Coach
Ejiro Evero	Safeties Coach	Dope name
Eric Henderson	Defensive Line Coach
Aaron Kromer	Run Game CoordinatoOffensive Line Coach
Zak Kromer	Offensive Quality Control	lol nepotism
Bill Nayes	Assistant to the Head Coach	insert The Office joke here
Kevin O'Connell	Offensive Coordinator*	Previously with the Washington REDACTED
Wes Phillips	Tight Ends Coach
Aubrey Pleasant	Cornerbacks Coach
Zac Robinson	Assistant Wide Receivers Coach	Was Assistant QB coach in 2019
Chris Shula	Outside Linebackers Coach
Brandon Staley	Defensive Coordinator*	Previously with the Denver Broncos as OLB Coach
Shane Waldron	Pass Game Coordinator
Eric Yarbor	Wide Receivers Coach

Key Changes

• The loss of Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips is a bummer, but something that was absolutely needed. This series I believe was the nail in the coffin for Wade's tenure with the Rams. And while the man has a historic legacy as a coach, ultimately he has a noticeable trend of running the same schemes and without much adjusting throughout the season, and opposing teams inevitably catch on to what he's doing and they counter. This same trend seemed to happen Denver as well. There is no doubt that the son of Bum will be missed, but ultimately I think Wade's hire was primarily to serve as a mentor for McVay while he figured out what it was like to be a head coach in the NFL. Now that McVay has three full seasons under his belt, that need is no longer there. Brandon Staley can be the energy the Rams defense desperately needs, and he could provide a similar spark that McVay set off when he first arrived.
  
• The bigger bummer is the loss of Special Teams Coordinator John "Bones" Fassell. I know what you're thinking, how can a STC possible be more valuable than the legendary Wade Phillips? Coach Bones had been our STC since 2012, as well as serving as interim head coach in 2016 after the firing of Jeff Fisher. Bones was a true leader of men, and is in the conversation of the best STC in the league. In memorandum of this loss, I want to share my all time favorite Coach Bones moment
  

Free Agent Signings and Departures

Key Signings

Player	Position	Former Team	Contract Details
Michael Brockers	Defensive Tackle	LA Rams	3 y31.5 million
Andrew Whitworth	Offensive Tackle	LA Rams	3 y30 million
Austin Blythe	Offensive Guard/C	LA Rams	1 y3.9 million
A'shawn Robinson	Defensive Tackle	Detroit Lions	2 y17 million
Leonard Floyd	OLB/Defensive End	Chicago Bears	1 y10 million

Key Departures

Player	Position	New Team	Contract Details
Greg Zuerline	Kicker	Dallas Cowboys	3 y7.5 million
Todd Gurley	Running Back	Atlanta Falcons	1 y5.5 million
Dante Fowler Jr	OLB/Defensive End	Atlanta Falcons	3 y30 million
Cory Littleton	Linebacker	Las Vegas Raiders	3 y36 million
Marquis Christian	Safety	New York Jets	1 y2 million
Jojo Natson	PKR	Cleveland Browns	1 y1 million
Clay Matthews	OLB/Defensive End	Free Agent	n/a
Eric Weddle	Safety	Free Agent	n/a
Nickell Robey-Coleman	Cornerback	Philadelphia Eagles	1 y1.35 million

Lets start our discussion with the departures, because we lost a lot of key starters. Dante Fowler, Cory Littleton, Clay Mathew, and Eric Weddle were four starters on our defense, with NRC being our primary slot DB. Weddle was more of a leader than an anchor on defense, and did a remarkable job mentoring his replacement in rookie Taylor Rapp. Clay Mathews had a nice season but at his age is certainly replaceable. What isn't going to be replaceable is Cory Littleton, who might be one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL. His coverage ability is going to be sorely missed and leaves the linebacker room, which was already weak, almost defunct.
The strategy regarding our free agent signings is a little mysterious. In early free agency we signed Floyd and Robinson, which filled two holes left by Fowler and Brockers, who had originally signed with the Baltimore Ravens. A few weeks afterwards Brockers offer was rescinded by the Ravens, and he resigned at a lofty amount. This effectively leaves the team with a log jam at defensive tackle, with two DTs that do virtually the same thing to be paired with Aaron Donald. I'll explain later in this post how I think our defense might look, but it's certainly a puzzling signing.
Resigning Whitworth, in what should be his final contract, is a nice bonus even if it was for another larger than anticipated deal. It gives our numerous young OL talent a wonderful vet to learn from, and despite media reports our offensive line room actually isn't bad. It's just incredibly young, and we have many sophomores who look to make jumps this year.

2020 Draft Class/Undrafted Free Agents

Round	Pick	Player	Position	College Team
2	52	Cam Akers	Running Back	Florida State
2	57	Van Jefferson	Wide Receiver	Florida
3	84	Terrell Lewis	OLB/DE	Alabama
3	104	Terrell Burgess	Safety	Utah
4	136	Brycen Hopkins	Tight End	Purdue
6	199	Jordan Fuller	Safety	Ohio State
7	234	Clay Johnston	Linebacker	Baylor
7	248	Sam Sloman	Kicker	Miami (OH)
7	250	Tremayne Anchrum	Offensive Line	Clemson

Cam Akers and Van Jefferson are the only players on offensive who should make an immediate impact. Akers could battle for the starting position with Gurley out, and Jefferson could battle Josh Reynolds for WR3. The intriguing pick is Terrell Lewis, who could have been a 1st rounder if healthy. He fills a major need at EDGE for the team, and if he works out will be a massive value pick.
Brycen Hopkins will battle with Johnny Mundt for the final TE spot, which may be a tall order given Mundt's proficiency on special teams. But he's a good prospect to replace Gerald Everett, who will demand a larger contract next year. Tremayne Anchrum is probably a longshot to make the team, especially with no preseason games considering we have a logjam of OL prospects with Bobby Evans, David Edwards, Joe Notebloom, among others.
For more information on the UDFA list, check out this link. The interesting choices are Easop Winston, Josh Love, and Bryce Perkins. Easop I think may have a decent shot at making the roster, while Josh Love and Bryce Perkins may be able to battle it out for the backup position. The Rams will look to shed future salary cap space where ever possible, and both players have decent ceilings and could be a cheap backup alternative for Goff, but both will have to usurp AAF legend John Wolford who is the leader in the clubhouse.

Projected Depth Chart/Scheme Changes

Offense (* indicates rookie)

Position	1st	2nd	3rd
QB	Jared Goff	John Wolford
RB	Malcom Brown	Cam Akers*	Darrell Henderson
WR	Cooper Kupp	Van Jefferson*
WR	Robert Woods	Nsimba Webster
WR	Josh Reynolds	Easop Winston*	Trishton Jackson*
TE	Tyler Higbee	Gerald Everett	Brycen Hopkins*
LT	Andrew Whitworth	Bobby Evans	Tremayne Anchrum
LG	Joe Notebloom	David Edwards
C	Austin Blythe	Brian Allen
RG	Austin Corbett	Coleman Shelton
RT	Rob Havenstein	Jamil Demby

The first thing that I envision changing for this Rams offensive is to break out of our traditional 11 personnel into more 11 or 22 based packages. Sean McVay has made no secret about our change to a running back by committee team, which makes sense given the different types of backs we have on the roster. Malcom Brown probably gets the start due to his veteran presence, and because he's a traditional runner of the football. But Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are both Alvin Kamara-like backs and can open things up for McVay to get more creative.
An interesting camp battle will be to see who makes it at wide receiver. Kupp, Woods, Reynolds, Jefferson, and Webster are all locks to make the team, but we will probably carry 6-7 on the roster. I'm partial to Easop Winston and Trishton Jackson to fill those voids but other guys like JJ Koski could also impress and camp and make an impact. As the season goes on, the Rams are going to hope that at least one of these rookies can manage to impress enough to replace Josh Reynolds, as both him and Cooper Kupp are in contract years and we probably won't be able to afford to resign both.
On the offensive line front, I'm really excited to see the development that Bobby Evans, Joe Notebloom, and David Edwards show. Make no mistake, if our team is to have flexibility moving forward it is absolutely vital that one, if not all three, of these guys pan out. Luckily, due to injury Bobby Evans and David Edwards were given starting jobs and performed really well all things considered. Evans in particular was given the task to block Jadeveon Clowney and Khalil Mack and really held those guys to minimal impact.
As a quick update, the only member of the team to opt out of the 2020 season is OL Chandler Brewer, who was probably a good bet to make the team as a backup OL. In his place I slot Jamil Demby who's been a prospect on the team for what seems like a decade. In any other year, I'd slot a rookie to take over that slot but given the lack of a structured offseason I think the team stays with someone familiar for another year.
Defense (* indicates rookie)

Position	1st	2nd	3rd
DE	Leonard Floyd	Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
DT	Aaron Donald	Sebastian Joseph-Day	Greg Gaines
DT	Michael Brockers	A'shawn Robinson
DE	Samson Ebukam	Justin Lawler
LB	Micah Kiser	Kenny Young	Travin Howard
LB	Terrell Lewis	Clay Johnston*
CB	Jalen Ramsey	Darious Williams
CB	Troy Hill	Donte Deayon
CB	David Long Jr	Adonis Alexander
S	John Johnson III	Jordan Fuller*
S	Taylor Rapp	Terrell Burgess*

Our biggest change in identity is going to come from the defensive side of the ball. Losing Wade Phillips is a huge blow to the leadership of the team, but newcomer Brandon Staley may be able to provide a McVay-like spark in ingenuity that provides results. The way that the Rams targeted safeties in the draft, and avoided a massive need in linebacker, makes me believe that we are transitioning to a DB let system similar our neighbors in the LA Chargers. If you do film study on the Chargers, you can see them run a package that consists of 7 DBs occasionally, which works well when you have physical safeties like Derwin James. Luckily for us, we have two incredibly physical guys in Johnson and Rapp, and with the team clearly focusing on DBs I think its in the cards for us to roll this package out in 2020.
One area that might be a struggle for us is going to be our defensive line, and generating pressure via the pass rush. Luckily again, we have the greatest defensive player in the NFL and the greatest defensive tackle of all time on our team. Another fortunate circumstance is that we no longer will be marred by Wade Phillips conservative play calling, and in fact may be able to use DC Brandon Staley's expertise as an OLB coach to get improvement out of guys like Okoronkwo and Ebukam, In free agency we signed A'Shawn Robinson, who paired with Michael Brockers can be a force against the run, but neither player is a threat to rush the passer. Leonard Floyd, another free agent signing, is another guy who is strong against the run but struggles in pass rush. This area of defense will be key to the success of the team, and these guys are gonna have to find ways outside of relying on Aaron Donald to generate pressure.
Special Teams (* indicates rookie)

Position	1st
K	Sam Sloman*
P	Johnny Hekker
LS	Jake McQuaide
PR	Trishton Jackson*
PR	Nsimba Webster*

Losing Greg Zuerline is going to hurt, and he will always have a place in Rams history for making clutch kicks in the 2018 NFC Championship game. But he grew inconsistent especially inside the 40 yard line, and struggled with injuries since 2017. We drafted Sam Sloman in 2020 but also have two decent UDFA that will compete for the starting job..

Projected Game Results

Week 1: Win (1-0)
Dallas Cowboys @ Rams - NBC Sunday Night Football
Opening the season at the new SoFi stadium, with potentially no fans is going to be an odd experience. The last time the Rams beat dem boyz was in the 2018 Divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams will struggle early to find continuity, and I'd expect a relatively low scoring, run heavy game. In the end I think the Rams will get the season off to a good start with a win. Rams 24 Cowboys 17
Week 2: Win (2-0)
Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles - FOX 10am PST
We should finally get to see Goff vs Wentz healthy in full game for the first time. The Eagles have beat the Rams both times they've played Sean McVay, and I think they get things back on track in 2020. I believe our strength at the DL and DBs will be able to effectively manage the weaknesses of the Eagles WRs and aging OL, though the key will probably be Zach Ertz. Rams 30 Eagles 28
Week 3: Loss (2-1)
Rams @ Buffalo Bills - FOX 10am PST
Our first stumble will come against an underrated team in the Bills. I think having two close games in a row to open the season will leave the team waiting for a crash, and how else to crash than by facing what might be the best defense in the NFL. I expect Tre White and the rest of the secondary to handle Goff and company in a convincing loss. Bills 23 Rams 10
Week 4: Win (3-1)
New York Giants @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST
Home sweet home, the Rams get back on track with a convincing win over a struggling Giants team. I'll predict an offensive explosion from Goff, somewhere around 400 yds and 4 TDs in a blow out win. Sorry Giants fans, nothing personal. I'm expecting an early struggle for this Giants team as it adjusts to new coach, young QB, with little prep time.Rams 42 Giants 16
Week 5: Win (4-1)
Rams @ Washington [REDACTED] - FOX 10amPST
I think this gsme is much closer than most might expect. The [REDACTED] are my surprise pick of the year, I have them winning the NFC East. An already tenacious defense led by Ron Rivera and gaining a bona-fide star in Chase Young is going to be fun to watch. I think the key to this game will be quick passes to avoid that ferocious defensive line as much as possible. Rams 24 [REDACTED] 21
Week 6: Loss (4-2)
Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers - NBC Sunday Night Football
As much as I want to win this game, I think Shanny and those fucks take this one from us. Divisional games tend to be unpredictable and chaotic, and while I do think we split the series with them, being on the road for this one isn't going to favor us. Its going to be interesting to see how DC Brandon Staley chooses to defend Kittle. I dont think shadowing him with Ramsey is the best play, perhaps it's a combination of jamming him at the LOS and covering him in zone. Either way, its a tall order for whoever gets that assignment. 49ers 31 Rams 25
Week 7: Win (5-2)
Chicago Bears @ Rams - ESPN Monday Night Football
As it stands, McVay will be 1-1 on the year in prime time games. His record as a coach is , which leads me to believe he'll have an edge in winning this one. Of course the Ram fucker Foles might be in at QB, which could spell disaster for our team. I think that our offensive prowess will shine during this long week, and we win in convincing fashion. Rams 36 Bears 20
Week 8: Win (6-2)
Rams @ Miami Dolphins - FOX 10am PST
We continue this offensive success against a team that will probably be pretty good defensively. HC Tom Flores is a Bill Belichek disciple who learned something important from his former mentor; acquire as many great DBs as you can. The improved secondary will make things tough for Goff and gang, but ultimately working with a rookie QB is going to be hard against a defense with all pros scattered around it. Rams 17 Dolphins 0 ' Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Win (7-2)
Seattle Seahawks @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST
And entering the second half of the season we have our first three game winning streak. Coming off a bye week will give McBae ample time to prepare for a Seahawks team thay frankly will have a struggling offensive line and holes on its defense. Even with Jamal Adams, I expect this team to take a step back in 2020. Rams 31 Seahawks 17
Week 11: Loss (7-3)
Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ESPN Monday Night Football
Facing the best offensive weapons in the league is going to be a tough order for any team this season. Now that they have a QB that will make effective, eccifient decisions this Bucs team should take off. I dont think its particularly close, this is a complete team on both sides of the ball. Bucs 28 Rams 10
Week 12: Win (8-3)
San Fransisco 49ers @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST
The winning continues as the team really clicks into high gear. A brutal NFC West game will likely be a repeat of Week 6, but with a few more bounces going our way. Being at home will be a helpful factor. Rams 26 49ers 24
Week 13: Win (9-3)
Rams @ Arizona Cardinals - FOX 1:05PST
If there is any team in the league that McVay can be relied on to spank, its the Cardinals. McVay has yet to be beat by the team in his tenure with the Rams and I expect that to continue at least through this week. Despite a huge game from future MVP Kyler Murray, the Rams prevail, improving to 9-3
Week 14: Loss (9-4)
New England Patriots @ Rams - FOX/NFLN/Amazon Thursday Night Football
A short week against Belichek spells doom for almost every team, and McVay will continue his struggles against the GOAT. The Pats defense was able to throw Goff off his game on the Super Bowl a few years ago, I expect we see more of this on Thursday.
Week 15: Loss (9-5)
New York Jets @ Rams - TBD
Every team had one puzzling loss, and this matchup with the Jets is ours for the year. I dont expect the Jets to have a grest year but I do think Sam Darnold is universally underappreciated and will have a great game against us.
Week 16: Loss (9-6)
Rams @ Seattle Seahawks - CBS 1:05PST
And we are really ending the year on a slump. Losing to the Seahawks this late in the year isn't great for our playoff hopes, but its always a tall order to go into Seattle and leave with a W. This game may he one of the most important games going into the playoffs and I wont be surprised to see it get flexed.
Week 17: Win (10-6)
Arizona Cardinals @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST
Luckily for us we end the season against our little cousins, and use this opportunity to get our chakras realigned. This game will move us into the 6th seed and bounce Arizona into the 7th seed, becoming the first division in history to have every team make the playoffs.

Conclusion

I think people have forgotten that the Rams were a mkssed field goal away from making the playoffs last year, and thats with playing very sloppy through most games. The only thing holding this team back is the fact that they play in the toughest division in football. I think that Goff has a bounce back year and ends up a top 10 QB for the season. This season will be critical for McVay to really show the new coaches and players that he's capable of not only calling proficient offense but leading an entire team of players. It will be an interesting season, so make sure to wear your damn mask so it actually happens.
Thank you for reading, and bless all the knees and keep them healthy!!
Thanks for reading!! Bless all the knees and keep them healthy.
Link to hub

Week 04 - Sunday, 04OCT2020, 1:00pm

Detroit Lions v New Orleans Saints

Posting a bit early this week. This normally goes up on Sunday morning, but I've got conflicting plans this time around (in fact, I'll be listening to this game on the car radio). But anyway, let's talk football.
What the heck? I was surprised. Were you surprised? I was surprised.
How in high heaven did Detroit manage to win that? I mean, it took a last-second-miracle legging by Prater (who is my Lion, as a reminder for those playing at home), but they pulled it off. This week is a matchup that could be even harsher, but maybe this means we’re turning a corner in this young season. Could the Lions overcome the odds two weeks in a row and topple an NFC team that is consistently near the top of the conference? Could they go into their early bye at (2-2) and shock everyone who thought they had them figured out when they were (0-2)? Maybe!
For details about the methodology for these prediction approaches or an explanation of any rivalries, please see here.

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

If there’s one team you don’t want to be up against in a quarterback category, it’s...well, it’s the Green Bay Packers, for which I am eternally bitter. But if there was a second, it would be the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees is not a man that you want to have to square up against. On his best days, Matthew Stafford is capable, but this season does not appear to be leading up to that. Stafford’s QBR of 60.7 is only good for 19th in the league this season, so “latest” Stafford isn’t necessarily up to snuff with “greatest” Stafford. Brees, on the other hand, is sitting at 80.3, ranking 6th in the league.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Passer Rating disagreed with QBR last week, and that was to its benefit as it trusted Stafford over Kyler Murray (both of whom are on my fantasy team, go figure). This time around, however, the gravity of Drew Brees is too much to overcome, and the two ratings are back to agreeing. Stafford has a 93.7, ranking 19th, compared to Drew Brees’s 106.2 in 9th.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Detroit was a surprise last week, managing 3 interceptions after 0 through the first pair of games. They weren’t able to capitalize on them very well, but WHO CARES that’s not what this prediction is about! It kind of assumes that you can make use of those turnovers, and if that’s to its detriment then it’s to its detriment. Point is, Detroit is at a +1 when you weigh those 3 INTs against 2 that they’ve thrown themselves.
The Saints, on the other hand, have taken 2 INTs and 2 fumbles, while giving up 1 of each. That works out to a +2, so they win this round regardless of whether or not Detroit can make a takeaway work.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

New Orleans isn’t setting the world on fire this year, but they’re in the top third of the league in 10th with 29.3 points per game. Detroit, on the other hand, is in the bottom third, in 23rd with 23.3 points per game. It’s doesn’t sound like much at only one touchdown per game, but, really, “only” one touchdown per game is quite a lot if you could take it for granted. If it’s a shootout, this team is dangerous for Detroit.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Detroit’s (3-12-1) is a real albatross around their neck for this category. It’s going to be rare that they get this pick. This week is no exception, as the Saints led their division with an impressive (13-3) record.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record Record: (3-0) / 100.0%

I was shocked by how far down the list the Saints were. I think of them as being a consistent force in the conference, and yet...
Detroit Lions: (563-672-33) / 45.7%
New Orleans Saints: (376-440-5) / 46.1%
...they only beat Detroit by one single position on the all-time “leaderboard”. So for total team histories, the precedent favors Detroit.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Lions:

Matt Patricia: 2 years as a head coach Darrell Bevell: 14 years as an offensive coordinator Cory Undlin: 0 years as an defensive coordinator Brayden Coombs: 0 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 16 years

Bevell got years.
Saints:

Sean Payton: 14 years as a head coach Peter Carmichael Jr.: 11 years as an offensive coordinator* Dennis Allen: 6 years as an defensive coordinator Darren Rizzi: 8 years as a special teams coordinator* Total: 39 years

Sean Payton alone has as much experience as the entire Cardinals coaching staff did last week, and the lot of his crew crushes Detroit this week. This is by far the heaviest hitter for years on the job that we’ve seen this season.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Lions

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Saints

5) Michael Thomas, WR 12) Drew Brees, QB 23) Cameron Jordan, DE 42) Alvin Kamara, RB 67) Demario Davis, OLB 76) Marshon Lattimore, CB 82) Ryan Ramczyk, OT

I could have simply skipped this by quoting the article’s header, “The New Orleans Saints had the most selections with 7”. Quite frankly, though, I wanted to see all of those names written out. No sass, this is impressive. Especially so because, remember, this is voted on by players.
Of course, I must note that two of these players will be injured this week. No less impressive, but perhaps maybe (SLIGHTLY) less impactful for this prediction.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Prediction Method 9: Madden 21 Simulation Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

The virtual Lions went into this week at (0-3), and they looked weak enough to continue that trend. At halftime, they were losing 7-0. They managed to pull to an even 14-14, but with 0:03 left in the game, they were back to losing at 21-17.
Did my phrasing leave it open to a miracle comeback? Yeah, no. Didn’t happen. These Lions are doing even worse than the real ones.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

Detroit started this one strong by...throwing an interception on the very first play of the game. Whoops. Things could have been worse, though, as New Orleans was only able to fire back with a field goal. Detroit gets back on track from their previous interception by marching downfield and...throwing an interception on the 5-yard line. What is going on, 8-bit Stafford?? Next, a pair of downright insane runs from Alvin Kamara get New Orleans into the redzone. Passes are ineffective, but one more run play gets the Saints into the endzone for the first time. Detroit is forced to punt on their next possession, and this time around Drew Brees is on his game. A few impressive passes put Alvin Kamara in position to score again. Getting the ball back, the Lions offense finally finds its legs...but with time running out in the first half, they're forced to give up on a touchdown and rely on a single leg as Prater splits the uprights.
17-3 Saints at the half.
New Orleans starts the 3rd with the ball, but the turnovers begin to balance as a long reception ends in a fumble that Detroit seizes. Then the turnovers begin to laugh in our faces as a Detroit fumble very nearly becomes a New Orleans touchdown. Like, VERY VERY NEARLY. Look at that. Two broken tackles, and that's where we finally stop the guy. Unfortunately, against this offense, that merely delays the inevitable. One play later, the score ticks upward once more. The teams continue to play hot potato instead of football, with turnovers bringing the ball back to the Saints and back back to the Lions. Unfortunately, the opportunity that this presents to Detroit is wasted, as an incomplete pass is followed by three sacks in a row, giving New Orleans the ball with a short field. Surprising absolutely none of you, this turns into even more points with a single long pass that's caught in the endzone. At this point I'm beyond ready for this game to be over, but we still have most of the 4th quarter left. Detroit finally finally finally manages to put up 6, but it merely feels insulting to me as a viewer. This one is long gone, boys. My only proper solace is that Marvin Jones got "vgeta" to start his image URL.
Detroit's onside kick doesn't work, and is returned all the way to the 5-yard line, at which point Alvin Kamara spits in our drink with 0:00 left on the clock, just for good measure.
Final score, 38-10 Saints.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick Record: (0-3) / 0.0%

Fen is really struggling this year, and she’s the competitive sort, so you can bet that she’s making her absolute best choices by now, in order to finally get on the board. This week, that choice is Detroit, so she has true faith.
Best of luck, puppy girl.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Unlike Fen (and probably to Fen’s great irritation), Elena isn’t taking this very seriously yet is happily cruising along with a solid record. She’s just excited to be participating. We’ll see if that excitement allows her to continue dominating this rivalry, as she chose against her big sister. I will say that, for some reason, she picked up both treats and put them in the middle before eating them. Maybe she expects another close game like Detroit had last week?
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

“So who do you think is going to win this week?”
“Who are we playing?”
“This week is the Saints. In Detroit.”
“I am not convinced that our win last week wasn’t a complete fluke, and also the Saints are wayyy better than us. So...I’m going to say the Saints. I refuse to get my hopes up.”
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

“Lions! Saints! Who wins?”
“Lions and...who?”
“The Saints.”
“The Saints. Where are the Saints from?”
“They are from New Orleans.”
“Umm...well...I don’t know their record, and Detroit lost...zero...one...I’m gonna go with Detroit. I’m thinking that maybe since they won last week, that’ll give them the drive to go two in a row.”
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

While the average points per game are exactly one touchdown apart, OddsShark is willing to go out a tiny bit farther than that on this limb. Their predicted score is 28.2 - 21.9 Saints. It’s only 0.3 points more than that one touchdown, but it’s always deliberate with oddsmakers.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 16: My Pick Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

Detroit is in pretty good shape this week. We’re coming off of a win that nobody expected, a win that came on the back of some players returning from injury and some honest-to-real adaptability and growth in the playcalling. Pile that onto some very, very key Saints injuries, and seldom before has an upset looked less upsetting. Or not upsetting at all. Whatever. It’s wordplay, shut up.
And yet, I find myself unconvinced. Even after last week, I am still a Quinntricia 2020 skeptic. I am skeptical of the moment-to-moment decision-making during games. I am skeptical of gameday personnel decisions. I am skeptical of the playcalling, and dammit, despite the willingness to use more zone coverage last week, I am skeptical as hell about this defense.
So in the end, I’m torn. I think Detroit is in a good position to pull this off, and I won’t be stunned if they do (though no small amount of that falls on the Saints being in an unusually weak position this week). I don’t expect them to, though, and I just can’t be comfortable making that call. I hope I’m wrong.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

The coin was guaranteed to stray from its 50-50 split last week, but it shocked us by the way in which it did so (that is, successfully picking the Lions to win). This week it opts to pick the Saints. The real question is: Is this a genuine pick, or is the sentient coin deliberately making the wrong choice in order to get back to 50-50?
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

IF YOU BELIEVE SAINTS FANS, THE SAINTS MAY BE THE ONLY TEAM THAT THE NFL HATES MORE THAN DETROIT. SO YOU KNOW WHAT? LET’S TAKE THEM AT THEIR WORD. PUT THAT ENERGY OUT INTO THE UNIVERSE AND MAKE IT REALITY.
IT’S OUR REALITY NOW.
IF THERE IS EVER A TIME FOR US TO CASH IN ON THE GOOD FEELINGS OF WATCHING AN OFFICIATING TEAM HAMSTRING YOUR OPPONENT, THAT TIME IS NOW. ONE OF US WILL PROBABLY GET TO ENJOY THAT SENSATION THIS WEEK. I POSIT THAT IT IS DETROIT, BECAUSE FUCK YOU THAT’S WHY.
END OF SEGMENT.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Summary

Raw Prediction: New Orleans Saints (4 for Detroit Lions, 14 for New Orleans Saints) Raw Prediction record: (1-2) / 33.3%
Weighted Prediction: New Orleans Saints (2.0 for Detroit Lions, 7.7 for New Orleans Saints) Weighted Prediction record: (1-2) / 33.3%
So it turns out that the win last week didn’t really move the needle here. Both the Raw and Weighted Predictions are in agreement, again, that Detroit won’t be celebrating Victory Monday. In fact, they feel even stronger about it this week than they did last week. They were indeed wrong last week, though (as was I, and I would wager many of you), so don’t lose all hope if you’re in the Honolulu Blue corner. Just...be wary, eh?

With each year that goes by, it seems as if we’re inching closer and closer to position-less football. In this draft class, the “hybrid players” that seemingly get the most attention are Laviska Shenault and Antonio Gibson. Though his profile is tantalizing, the question of health surrounds Viska. With a very questionable offense, will Gibson be able to shine?
If one can hit on a hybrid player in dynasty, there’s not many more stocks that are more fun to watch go up. For my money, this year, that guy isn’t Viska or Gibson - it’s Lynn Bowden Jr.
Let’s go over a few points:
1) Production
2019 stats:
1,235 rushing yards 11 Rushing TDs 330 Passing Yards 2 Passing TDs 348 Receiving Yards 1 Receiving TD 200 Kickoff Return Yards 53 Punt Return Yards
To add, he accounted for a third (literally, 33.3%) of all Kentucky’s rushing and receiving yards. This is SEC competition folks. Florida, SC, UGA themselves are typically among the most stout of defenses (the East typically doesn’t have the most high octane offenses, but, traditionally, their defenses have been superb).
To cap it all off: he won the Paul Hornung Award (nation’s best all purpose/most versatile player), was 1st team All-SEC...and a consensus 1st team All-American.
In terms of production and displaying his talent, he was nothing short of special in 2019.
2) Fit with the Raiders
Prior to the draft, GM Mike Mayock had a very interesting line:
"You start looking at guys on the offense that can play in the slot, play at RB, be H-backs, there’s not really a label for them. They’re just either dynamic players, or they’re not."
Sure enough, Lynn Bowden Jr was the pick weeks later.
It’s odd to me how many folks still have him listed as a WR. Mayock, after the pick, was pretty clear about his intentions with Bowden...as he explicitly stated that he’d be mostly a RB/Joker type of role. Moving him around is assumed, due to the obvious nature of Bowden’s talent, but it’s nice for a GM to call out his primary role.
Mayock has shown he is as good of a scouting GM as there is in the NFL. There’s little reason to doubt they don’t have a plan (that will end up paying dividends for dynasty owners) for Bowden.
3) 2020 Outlook
Suddenly, the Raiders have a lot of mouths. Since Bowden will be lining up in multiple places, let’s look at things at a high level:
Jacobs Waller Ruggs Edwards Renfrow Richard T Williams
There’s more, but these are the ones that matter.
Let’s go down the list:

• Jacobs is great, no doubt. Nagging shoulder injury was an issue, we’ll see if he can stay healthy for 16 (opportunity for Bowden here)
  
• Waller will keep doing Waller things. His yardage will almost assuredly regress. However, being the 2nd in yardage in the league last year, I don’t think regression means having an average year. He will have a great year, as he continues to be a focus for CarMariota.
  
• Ruggs is the black box here. The draft cap screams “we’re going to make this guy Tyreek Hill”. However, I believe this was more of a football pick than a production pick. May seem confusing, but what I’m saying is Henry Ruggs’s value to the Raiders may not necessarily translate to the stat sheet. Gruden wants to assault a defense with a thousand paper cuts. If you can successfully keep the defense fearing for the top to be blown off...perhaps you’ll have an increased opportunity of creating space for your playmakers (like Bowden). I can totally predict the devil’s advocate argument here, as it’s easy to point at a 1st round pick and say “way too expensive for a decoy”. Let me be clear: Henry Ruggs is not a decoy. Henry Ruggs is a great football player and athlete. In the NFL draft, sometimes, you must take the player that possesses qualities you absolutely can’t get in the later rounds (Ruggs’s speed, combined with other traits is just not seen in the later rounds).
  

I do not believe Ruggs will be “fed” in 2020. I truly believe Ruggs will do the Raiders wonders, both in stretching the field and kick returning. He’ll have his game breaking plays, but he will not be filling up stat sheets on a weekly basis.

• Edwards, to me, has a great opportunity to push Ruggs in the 2020 production category. Let’s call it ~550 yards on 35 or so receptions. He was virtually the entire Gamecocks’ offense when deebo left, and didn’t have the greatest QB situation. Bowden and Edwards went back to back, but it truly feels like Bryan Edwards was the “why is this guy here? Let’s take him” kind of luxury pick. Hell, even Mayock expressed surprises afterwards saying: “we were very surprised he was there, we had a 2nd round grade on him”.

Bowden was the plan.

• Renfrow has outplayed his draft capital, but I fear his ceiling is far lower than the players we’ve been talking about. He was a great stopgap, but I just don’t see him turning into a staheavy contributor moving forward.
  
• Richard’s contract was...surprising to say the least. However, I think this spoke to the alarm the FO had about JJ’s injury. If not this, perhaps they don’t want to pound JJ into the ground as much this year. Regardless, there’s a desire to have talent behind JJ, and that 2nd body is important to the Raiders. The competition between Jalen and Bowden should be good. Bowden is the far superior football player and will supersede Jalen soon.
  
• Tyrell Williams needs to prove he can stay healthy. Even if he manages to do so, I don’t think he’ll affect Bowden much, as he’s more of a deep threat.
  

I think Lynn Bowden can easily get 70 carries and 40 catches. There are a lot of names here...but the opportunity for Bowden is clearer than one would expect.
Remember, he’s superior to Tarik Cohen as a prospect, has the higher draft cap, and has the hardware to show that he can line up anywhere. That raiders offense will also move the ball more effectively than the bears.
4) The Conspiracy Theorist in Me
Play along with me here. Derek Carr has been in the crosshairs of many trade rumors for multiple years. There’s a strong argument that the raiders are a QB away from being a significant threat in the AFC (that division is hell...with the chargers being a crazy D on paper, Broncos O being as loaded as it is, and KC being KC).
Mariota got paid, to say the least. IF Carr flames/gets hurt....and IF Mariota subsequently flames/gets hurt (very possible, much more so than Carr)...what happens?
Lynn Bowden Jr, right?
I’m willing to bet this scenario, or even just having Lynn pass a few times a game, played a factor in this pick. Lynn Bowden Jr is flat out dangerous with the ball, regardless of where he has it. If Gruden can figure out a way to make Bowden dangerous from the QB position in the NFL...watch out.
The point is: he’s an OPTION
To close, I think people are sleeping on Lynn Bowden Jr. He doesn’t have any business going in the 4th round of a rookie draft. He has the talent to be a star in the NFL, and the amount of names in the Raiders offensive room has spooked people. These names aren’t as robust as one may think, and we may see a 3rd round gem blossom into a game breaker.
Draft Lynn Bowden Jr and enjoy the ride. We haven’t seen many players like this man.

The 2019/2020 season of the Hungary’s National Football League (NB1) – being one of the first leagues to restart play - came to an end on 27 June. If a casual observer (for whatever reason) decides to check out the final standings, he would be not surprised at the first two positions: record-champion Ferencváros defended their title, while regional powerhouse Fehérvár (Videoton) came in second. However, the third place team, Puskás Akadémia FC might seem unusual and one could think that there is a story behind that. Is there a team named after Ferenc Puskás? Did some academy youths make an incredible run for the Europa League qualification? Well, the observer is right, there is a story behind all this, but it’s absolutely not a fun story. It’s a story about how one powerful man’s obsession with football stole a legend, misused state funds and killed the spirit of Hungarian football. (Warning: this is a long story, feel free to scroll down for a tl;dr. Also, I strongly advise checking out the links, those images are worth seeing).
Naturally, political influence in football has been present ever since the dawn of the sport and we know of numerous state leaders who felt confident enough to use their influence to ensure the successful development of their favored clubs – Caucescu’s FC Olt Scornicesti and Erdogan’s Basaksehir are well-known examples of such attempts. However, I fear that very few of the readers are aware of the fact that Puskás Akadémia FC is nothing but Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s grandiose project for establishing his hometown’s club as one of the country’s top teams. Considering that Orbán managed to achieve this goal using state funds in an EU member democracy in the 2000s, one might even say that it might be one of the most impressive attempts of cheating your way through Football Manager in real life. Now that Puskás Akadémia FC escaped the desolate football scene of Hungary and is getting ready for the European takeover, I feel that it’s high time to tell its true story.

Part 1: Part time striker, part time PM

Our story begins in 1999 when the 36-year-old striker Viktor Orbán (recently elected as the country’s Prime Minister) was signed by the sixth-tier side of Felcsút FC residing in rural Fejér County. It might sound surprising that an active politician would consider such a side job, but given that Orbán has been playing competitive low-level football throughout his whole life and has always been known as a keen football enthusiast, people seemed to be okay with his choice for a hobby. Orbán spent most of his childhood in the village of Felcsút (population: 1,800), so it seemed only natural that he would join the team after one of his old-time acquaintances became team president there.
Orbán’s arrival to the club seemed to work like a charm as Felcsút FC immediately earned a promotion to the fifth league. The Prime Minister’s busy program did not allow him to attend every training session and game but Orbán did make an effort to contribute as much as possible on the field – there is a report of a government meeting being postponed as Orbán was unavailable due to attending Felcsút FC’s spring training camp. The 2001/2002 season brought another breakthrough for the side as Felcsút was promoted to the national level of the football pyramid after being crowned the champion of Fejér County. Sadly enough for Orbán, he suffered a defeat on another pitch – his party lost the 2002 election and Orbán was forced to move to an opposition role.
No matter what happened on the political playing field, Orbán would not abandon his club. Just before the 2002 elections, Felcsút was surprisingly appointed as one of the regional youth development centers by the Hungarian FA. Orbán continued contributing on the field as well (he had more spare time after all) but his off-the-field efforts provided much more value for the team as he used his political influence to convince right-wing businessmen that they should definitely get sponsorship deals done with the fourth-division village team.
Club management was able to transform the influx of funds into on-field success: Felcsút FC was promoted to the third division in 2004 and achieved promotion to the second division in 2005. Although these new horizons required a skill level that an aging ex-PM is not likely to possess, Orbán regularly played as a late game sub and even appeared in cup games against actual professional opponents. The now-42-year old Orbán did not want to face the challenge of the second division, so he retired in 2005 – but this did not stop him from temping as an assistant coach when the head coach was sacked in the middle of the 2005-2006 season.
Success on the playing field did not translate to political success: Orbán lost the elections once again in 2006. However, this was only a temporary loss: the ruling party committed blunder after blunder and by early 2007 it became absolutely obvious that Orbán would be able return to power in 2010. Now confident in his political future, Orbán opted for the acceleration of football development in Felcsút – by late 2007 he took over the presidency of the club to take matters in his own hands. Sponsors seeking to gain favor with the soon-to-be PM were swarming Felcsút FC, so the club was able to stand very strong in an era where financial stability was a very rare sight in the Hungarian football scene, accumulating three medals (but no promotion) between 2007 and 2009.
On the other hand, Orbán realized the value of youth development as well, and started a local foundation for this purpose back in 2004 that gathered funds for the establishment a boarding school-like football academy. The academy opened its doors in September 2006 (only the second of such institutions in the country) and Orbán immediately took upon the challenge of finding an appropriate name for the academy.
He went on to visit the now very sick Ferenc Puskás in the hospital to discuss using his name, but as Puskás’ medical situation was deteriorating rapidly, communication attempts were futile. Luckily enough Puskás’ wife (and soon to be widow) was able to act on his incapable husband’s behalf and approved the naming deal in a contract. According to the statement, naming rights were granted without compensation, as “Puskás would have certainly loved what’s happening down in Felcsút”. However, there was much more to the contract: Puskás’ trademark was handed to a sports journalist friend of Orbán (György Szöllősi, also acting communications director of the academy) who promised a hefty annual return for the family (and also a 45% share of the revenue for himself). Ferenc Puskás eventually died on 17 November 2006 and on 26 November 2006 the football academy was named after him: Puskás Academy was born.
Orbán shared his vision of the whole organization after the opening ceremony: “It’s unreasonable to think that Felcsút should have a team in the top division. We should not flatter ourselves, our players and our supporters with this dream. Our long term ambition is the creation of a stable second division team that excels in youth development and provides opportunity for the talents of the future.” Let’s leave that there.

Part 2: No stadium left behind

Orbán became PM once again in April 2010 after a landslide victory that pretty much granted him unlimited power. He chased lots of political agendas but one of his policies was rock solid: he would revive sports (and especially football) that was left to bleed out by the previous governments. The football situation in 2010 was quite dire: while the national team has actually made some progress in the recent years and has reached the 42nd position in the world rankings, football infrastructure was in a catastrophic state. Teams were playing in rusty stadiums built in the communist era, club finances were a mess, youth teams couldn’t find training grounds and the league was plagued by violent fan groups and lackluster attendance figures (3100 average spectators per game in the 2009/2010 season).
Orbán – aided by the FA backed by business actors very interested in making him happy – saw the future in the total rebuild of the football infrastructure. Vast amounts of state development funds were invested into the football construction industry that warmly welcomed corruption, cost escalation and shady procurement deals. In the end, money triumphed: over the last decade, new stadiums sprung out from nothing all over the country, dozens of new academies opened and pitches for youth development appeared on practically every corner. The final piece of the stadium renovation program was the completion of the new national stadium, Puskás Aréna in 2019 (estimated cost: 575 million EUR). Orbán commemorated this historic moment with a celebratory video on his social media that features a majestic shot of Orbán modestly kicking a CGI ball from his office to the new stadium.
Obviously, Orbán understood that infrastructure alone won’t suffice. He believed in the idea that successful clubs are the cornerstone of a strong national side as these clubs would compete in a high quality national league (and in international tournaments) that would require a constant influx of youth players developed by the clubs themselves. However, Orbán was not really keen on sharing the state’s infinite wealth with private club owners who failed to invest in their clubs between 2002 and 2010. The club ownership takeover was not that challenging as previous owners were usually happy to cut their losses, and soon enough most clubs came under Orbán’s influence. Some clubs were integrated deep into Orbán’s reach (Ferencváros and MTK Budapest club presidents are high ranking officials of Orbán’s party) while in other cases, indirect control was deemed sufficient (Diósgyőri VTK was purchased by a businessman as an attempt to display loyalty to Orbán).
Pouring taxpayer money into infrastructure (stadium) projects is relatively easy: after all, we are basically talking about overpriced government construction projects, there’s nothing new there. On the other hand, allocating funds to clubs that should be operating on a competitive market is certainly a tougher nut to crack. The obvious solutions were implemented: the state media massively overpaid for broadcasting rights and the national sports betting agency also pays a hefty sum to the FA, allowing for a redistribution of considerable amounts. However, given that the income side of Hungarian clubs was basically non-existent (match day income is negligible, the failed youth development system does not sell players), an even more radical solution was desperately needed. Also, there was definite interest in the development of a tool that would allow for differentiation between clubs (as in the few remaining non-government affiliated clubs should not receive extra money).
The solution came in 2011: the so-called TAO (“társasági adó” = corporate tax) system was introduced, granting significant tax deductions for companies if they offered a portion of their profits to sports clubs – however, in theory, funds acquired through TAO can be only used for youth development and infrastructure purposes. Soon enough, it became apparent that state authorities were not exactly interested in the enforcement of these restrictions, so some very basic creative accounting measures enabled clubs to use this income for anything they wanted to. Companies were naturally keen on cutting their tax burdens and scoring goodwill with the government, so TAO money immediately skyrocketed. Opportunistic party strongmen used their influence to convince local business groups to invest in the local clubs, enabling for the meteoric rise of multiple unknown provincial teams (Mezőkövesd [pop: 16,000], Kisvárda [pop: 16,000], Balmazújváros [pop: 17,000]) into the first division.
Although it’s not the main subject of this piece, I feel inclined to show you the actual results of Orbán’s grandiose football reform. While we do have our beautiful stadiums, we don’t exactly get them filled – league attendance has stagnated around 3000 spectators per game throughout the whole decade. We couldn’t really move forward with our national team either: Hungary lost 10 positions in the FIFA World Rankings throughout Orbán’s ten years. On the other hand, the level of league has somewhat improved – Videoton and Ferencváros reached the Europa League group stage in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Too bad that the Instat-based top team of 2019/2020 Hungarian league consists of 10 foreigners and only 1 Hungarian: the goalkeeper.

Part 3: Small place, big game!

As seen in the previous chapter, Orbán did have a strong interest in the improvement of the football situation Hungary, but we shouldn’t forget that his deepest interest and true loyalty laid in the wellbeing of Felcsút and its academy. Now that Orbán had limitless means to see to the advancement of his beloved club, he got to work immediately. Orbán handed over formal club management duties to his friend / protégé / middleman / businessman Lőrinc Mészáros in 2010, but no questions would ever arise of who is actually calling the shots.
First of all, no club can exist without a proper stadium. Although in 2011 Orbán explicitly stated that “Felcsút does not need a stadium as stadiums belong to cities”, no one was really surprised in 2012 when the construction of the Felcsút stadium was announced. Orbán was generous enough to donate the lands just in front of his summer home in the village for the project, locating the entrance a mere ten meters away from his residence. Construction works for the stunningly aesthetic 3,800-seater arena (in a village of 1,800 people) started in April 2012 and were completed in April 2014, making Felcsút’s arena the second new stadium of Orbán’s gigantic stadium revival program.
The estimated budget of the construction was 120 million EUR (31,500 EUR / seat) was financed by the Puskás Academy who explicitly stated that they did not use government funds for the project. Technically, this statement is absolutely true as the construction was financed through the TAO money offered by the numerous companies looking for tax deduction and Orbán’s goodwill. However, technically, this means that the country’s budget was decreased by 120 million EUR unrealized tax revenue. Naturally, the gargantuan football stadium looks ridiculously out of place in the small village, but there’s really no other way to ensure that your favorite team’s stadium is within 20 seconds of walking distance from your home.
Obviously, a proper club should also have some glorious history. Felcsút was seriously lagging behind on this matter as though Felcsút FC was founded in 1931, it spent its pre-Orbán history in the uninspiring world of the 5th-7th leagues of the country. Luckily enough, Orbán had already secured Puskás’ naming rights and they were not afraid to use it, so Felcsút FC was renamed to Puskás Academy FC in 2009. The stadium name was a little bit problematic as the Hungarian national stadium in Budapest had sadly had the dibs on Puskás’ name, so they had to settle with Puskás’ Spanish nickname, resulting in the inauguration of the Pancho Arena. But why stop here? Orbán’s sports media strongman György Szöllősi acted upon the contract with Puskás’ widow and transferred all Puskás’ personal memorabilia (medals, jerseys, correspondence) to the most suitable place of all: a remote village in which Puskás never even set foot in.
While the off-field issues were getting resolved, Orbán’s attention shifted to another important area: the actual game of football. Although academy players started to graduate from 2008 on, it very soon became painfully obvious that the academy program couldn’t really maintain even a second division side for now. In 2009, Orbán reached an agreement with nearby Videoton’s owner that effectively transformed Felcsút FC into Videoton’s second team under the name of Videoton – Puskás Akadémia FC. The mutually beneficent agreement would allow Videoton to give valuable playing time to squad players while it could also serve as a skipping step for Puskás Academy’s fresh graduates to a first league team. The collaboration resulted in two mid-table finishes and a bronze medal in the second division in the following three seasons that wasn’t really impressive compared to Felcsút FC’s standalone seasons.
It seemed that the mixture of reserve Videoton players and academy youth was simply not enough for promotion, and although Orbán had assured the public multiple times that his Felcsút project was not aiming for the top flight, very telling changes arose after the 2011/2012 season. Felcsút terminated the Videoton cooperation deal and used the rapidly accumulating TAO funds to recruit experienced players for the now independently operating Puskás Academy FC (PAFC). The new directive worked almost too well: PAFC won its division with a 10 point lead in its first standalone year which meant that they would have to appear in the first league prior to the completion of their brand-new Pancho Arena. Too bad that this glorious result had almost nothing to do with the academy - only two players were academy graduates of the side’s regular starting XI.
Orbán did not let himself bothered with the ridiculousness of an academy team with virtually no academy players being promoted to the first division as he stated that “a marathon runner shouldn’t need to explain why the other runners were much slower than him”. Orbán also displayed a rare burst of modesty as he added that “his team’s right place is not in the first league, and they will soon be overtaken by other, better sides”.
The promotion of PAFC to the first division made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move. Supporter groups were united in hatred all along the league and not surprisingly, away fans almost always outnumbered the home side at PAFC’s temporary home at Videoton’s Sóstói Stadium (demolished and rebuilt in its full glory since then). One of the teams, however, possessed an extraordinary degree of anger against PAFC: supporters of Budapest Honvéd – the only Hungarian team in which Ferenc Puskás played – felt especially awkward about the transfer of their club legend’s heritage to Felcsút. Tensions spiked at the PAFC – Honvéd game when home security forced Honvéd supporters to remove the “Puskás” part of their traditional “Puskás – Kispest – Hungary” banner – the team answered the insult with style as they secured a 4-0 victory supported by fans chanting “you can’t buy legends”.
Despite Orbán’s prognosis, other better sides did not rush to overtake his team, so PAFC, now residing in their brand new Pancho Arena, came through with a 14th and a 10th place in their first two seasons. Naturally, conspiracy theories began to formulate, speculating that government-friendly owners would certainly not be motivated to give their best against PAFC. However, as the league size was reduced to 12 for the 2015/2016 season, PAFC found themselves in a dire situation just before the final round: they needed a win and needed rival Vasas to lose against MTK in order to avoid relegation. PAFC’s draw seemed to be unlucky as they faced their arch-enemy Honvéd at home, but Honvéd displayed an absolute lackluster effort – fueling conspiracy theories – and lost the fixture 2 to 1 against a home side featuring four academy players. Vasas, however, did not disappoint, their 2-0 victory resulted in PAFC’s elimination and a very relaxed sigh all over the football community.
PAFC’s relegation seemed to be in accordance with Orbán’s 2013 statement, so public opinion supposed for a while that Orbán’s project came to a halting point and the Academy would go on to actually field academy players in the second division (especially as rostering foreign players was prohibited in the lower leagues). However, if you have read through this point, you know better than to expect Orbán to retreat – obviously, PAFC came back with a bang. With a ballsy move, PAFC didn’t even sell their foreign players, they just loaned them across the league, promising them that they would be able to return next year to the newly promoted team. The promise was kept as PAFC went into another shopping spree of experienced players (easily convincing lots of them to choose the second division instead of the first) and easily won the second league.
Orbán – now aware of his negligence – opted for the doubling the team’s budget, making PAFC the third most well-founded club in the whole country (only coming short to his friend’s Videoton and his party minion’s Ferencváros). With an actual yearly influx from TAO money in the ballpark of 30-40 million EUR, PAFC management had to really work wonders in creative accounting in order to make their money look somewhat legitimate. The books were now full of ridiculous items like:

• Construction of a new tea kitchen for youth players for 650,000 EUR
• Construction of a new “sports and conference center” for 40 million EUR
• Employment of a 45 person “cleaning and maintenance staff” for the academy.

Naturally, in the country of no consequences, absolutely nothing happened: PAFC went on with its spending and signed 35 foreigners between 2017 and 2020. They did so because they could not hope to field a winning team in the first league consisting of academy players, despite the fact that Puskás Academy has been literally drowning in money since 2007. This seems to somewhat contradict Orbán’s 2013 promise, stating that “Puskás Academy will graduate two or three players to major European leagues each year”. To be fair, there have been players who managed to emerge to Europe (well, exactly two of them: Roland Sallai plays at Freiburg, László Kleinheisler played at Werder Bremen) but most academy graduates don’t even have the slightest the chance to make their own academy’s pro team as it’s full of foreigners and more experienced players drawn for other teams’ programs.
Despite their unlimited funding, PAFC could not put up a top-tier performance in their first two years back in the first division, finishing 6th and 7th in the 12-team league. Many speculated that the lack of support, motivation and even a clear team mission did not allow for chemistry to develop within the multinational and multi-generational locker room. Consistency was also a rare sight on the coaching side: club management was absolutely impatient with coaches who were very easily released after a single bad spell and there were talks of on-field micromanagement request coming from as high as Orbán.
Even so, their breakthrough came dangerously close in 2018 as PAFC performed consistently well in the cup fixtures and managed to reach the final. Their opponent, Újpest played an incredibly fierce game and after a 2-2 draw, they managed to defeat PAFC in the shootout. Football fans sighed in relief throughout the country as ecstatic Újpest supporters verbally teased a visibly upset Orbán in his VIP lounge about his loss.
Obviously, we could only delay the inevitable. While this year’s PAFC side seemed to be more consistent than its predecessors, it seemed that they won’t be able to get close to the podium - they were far behind the obvious league winner duo of Ferencváros and Videoton and were trailing third-place Mezőkövesd 6 points just before the pandemic break. However, both Mezőkövesd and PAFC’s close rivals DVTK and Honvéd fall flat after the restart while PAFC was able to maintain its good form due to its quality roster depth. PAFC overtook Mezőkövesd after the second-to-last round as Mezőkövesd lost to the later relegated Debrecen side. (Mezőkövesd coach Attila Kuttor was fined harshly because of his post-game comments on how the FA wants PAFC to finish third.)
PAFC faced Honvéd in the last round once again, and as Honvéd came up with its usual lackluster effort, PAFC secured an effortless win, confidently claiming the third place. PAFC celebrated their success in a nearly empty stadium, however neither Orbán, nor Mészáros (club owner, Orbán’s protégé, now 4th richest man of Hungary) seemed to worry about that. While Orbán high-fived with his peers in the VIP lounge, Mészáros was given the opportunity to award the bronze medals (and for some reason, a trophy) to the players dressed up in the incredibly cringe worthy T-shirts that say “Small place, big game!”. Big game, indeed: in the 2019/2020 season, foreign players’ share of the teams playing time was 43.6% while academy graduates contributed only 17.9%.
On Sunday evening, less than 24 hours after PAFC’s glorious success, György Szöllősi, now editor-in-chief of Hungary’s only sports newspaper (purchased by Orbán’s affiliates a few years back) published an editorial on the site, stating that “the soccer rebuild in Felcsút became the motor and symbol of the revitalization of sport throughout the whole country”. Well, Szöllősi is exactly right: Felcsút did became a symbol, but a symbol of something entirely different. Felcsút became a symbol of corruption, inefficiency, lies and the colossal waste of money. But, hey, at least we know now: you only need to spend 200 million EUR (total budget of PAFC and its academy in the 2011-2020 period) if you want to have a Europa League team in your backyard. Good to know!

Epilogue: What's in the future?

As there is no foreseeable chance for political change to happen Hungary (Orbán effortlessly secured qualified majority in 2014 and 2018, and is projected to do so in 2022 as well), PAFC’s future seems to be as bright as it gets. Although consensus opinion now seems to assume that Orbán does not intend to interfere with the Ferencváros – Videoton hegemony, we can never be really sure about the exact limits of his greed. One could also argue that entering the European theater serves as a prime opportunity for making splashy transfers who could be the cornerstones of a side challenging the league title.
However, as all political systems are deemed to fall, eventually Orbán’s regime will come apart. Whoever will take upon the helm after Orbán, they will certainly begin with cutting back on the one item on Orbán’s agenda that never had popular support: limitless football spending. Puskás Academy, having next to zero market revenue, will not be able to survive without the state’s life support, so the club will fold very shortly. The abandoned, rotting stadium in Felcsút will serve as a memento of a powerful man who could not understand the true spirit of football.
But let’s get back to present day, as we have more pressing issues coming up soon: PAFC will play their first European match in the First qualifying round of the Europa League on 27 August. We don’t have a date for the draw yet, but soon enough, a team unaware of the whole situation will be selected to face the beast. I hope that maybe one of their players does some research and maybe reads this very article for inspiration. I hope that the supporters of this club get in touch with Honvéd fans who would be eager to provide them with some tips on appropriate chants. I hope that other teams gets drawn as the home team so Orbán wouldn’t get the pleasure of walking to his stadium for an international match. But most importantly, I very much hope that this team obliterates PAFC and wipes them off the face of the earth. 5-0 will suffice, thank you.
And if this team fails to do that, we don’t have to worry yet. Due to our shitty league coefficient, PAFC would need to win four fixtures in a row. And that – if there’s any justice in this world – is a thing that can’t, that won’t happen. Ball don’t lie – if I may say.
TL,DR
Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán redirected some 200 million EUR of taxpayer money over 10 years to fuel his ambition of raising a competitive football team in his hometown of 1,800 people. He built a 3,800-seater stadium in his backyard, expropriated football legend Ferenc Puskás’ trademarks and heritage and built up a football league where almost all clubs are owned by his trustees. His team, Puskás Akadémia FC was originally intended to be a development ground for youth players graduating from Orbán’s football academy, but eventually the team became more and more result-orianted. Finally, a roster full of foreign and non-academy players came through and finished third in the league, releasing this abomination of a team to the European football theatre. Please, knock them out asap!