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Stone Ocean Stands, and fights, aren't THAT confusing, bad or bizarre
FOREWORD
Even though a lot of people have read Part 6, after Vento Aureo's successful anime adaptation, and mostly enjoyed it, there is still this weird "concensus" on the quality of Stands and fights in Stone Ocean. They are mostly seen as too convoluted and bizarre, "even for JoJo". I disagree... a lot. I believe that this is largely due to people skimming, just going with what others say, or refusing to understand things in Part 6 (even though everything is properly explained). It just requires a little bit of thinking. Part 6 is the turning point for Araki's art-style and fights, so it might come off as intimidating, at first. I have to be honest though, I felt the same way on my first read. However, on the very second one, I started seeing how enjoyable and cool these abilities and fights are. So, I'll go Stand by Stand, giving reasons why they might not be as bad as people think they are. Maybe this will offer a new perspective on the topic and make people appreciate it more. Who knows?
FIRST HALF
Like every beginning in JoJo, it's not THAT entertaining or exciting. It usually takes a bit of time to get us truly invested. Part 6 is no exception to this trend. Although, I'd argue that it's introductory Chapters are perfect in setting up the story and introducing a new JoJo. Goo Goo Dolls Right off the bat, it's a better Little Feet (I am shocked to see how many people say it’s the other way around). It's shrinking is instant. There's not even a need for the user, Guess, to be able to shrink herself. Additionally, GGD is long-range and automatic, and will eliminate those that try to escape. I feel that it reflects Guess pretty well, since "Stands are the manifestations of one's soul". She is intimidated by others, so she has this complex of wanting to be dominant. Her Stand shrinks people, making them into her personal toys/pets that she pushes around. It's also a great parallel to Alessi, from Part 3. He likes bullying the weak (children), and his Stand ability reflects that. Some other enemies are also obvious parallels to Part 3's enemies. There's not much to be said about the fight, with it being the very first one in the Part. It's similiar to Little Feet's, but has it's differences, which is good. Manhattan Transfer Ok... what is with everyone picking on Manhattan Transfer? It seems that people measure how good a Stand is, by how useful it's abilities would be in real life. This is a horrible way of judging them, in my opinion. As I've mentioned: "Stands are the manifestations of one's soul". Johngalli A is a blind sniper (a parallel to N'Doul. Both are blind, with long-range Stands and kill flies). Manhattan Transfer reads air currents, which helps Johngalli pinpoint his targets. It also serves as a ricochet surface for Johngalli's "trick-shots". It might not seem cool, but it fits it's user and performs it's task excellently. The Stand itself is pretty nimble due to it's, almost precognitive, senses. What might be giving this Stand a bad rep, is the perplexing, "Inception-esque" arc it's in. The fight consists of three segments: 1) Jolyne’s hallucination; 2) Jotaro’s (brief) hallucination; 3) the real fight. Once you read through it, this structure becomes evident, which doesn’t make it seem as confusing. The actual fight is rather short, since the majority takes place in Jotaro's and Jolyne's dreams. So, I can agree that the fight’s structure can be intimidating, especially as an early fight. Despite this, MT doesn't deserve the hate it gets. And yes, the Stand DOES exist and isn't part of the hallucination. This is made very clear towards the end of the fight. Highway to Hell It's more underwhelming than the other fights, but still has good Hermés moments, and generally serves to show Kiss's ability. Pucci's description of Thunder McQueen is on point, so I don't have to explain why the Stand fits him so well. The fact that the Stand inflicts equal damage onto the target, with A in range, makes it even scarier. I personally don't outright hate this fight, but I can't blame you if you do. I never believed that SO is perfect (neither is any other Part). They all have their ups and downs. I think a parallel can be drawn to Part 3, with this Stand, as well. What I’m referring to, is “Lovers”. Both Stands reflect damage onto the targeted individual. It’s just that HtH is indestructible. Foo Fighters A great mystery in the beginning. It's thrilling to read, the first time around. But, on consecutive reads is just a bore, since we know what happens. The second half, being an actual fight, is far more entertaining. The fact that FF is sentient, is one of Araki's greatest ideas ever. Seeing a Stand have, and fight to preserve, it's intelligence, is very refreshing and thought-provoking. And FF is a fan-favourite, so she's rather popular. As for the ability, she's the healer. A bit of a weird one at that, but she also has decent offensive capabilities. Debt Collector Marilyn Manson This is what I deem the first GREAT fight of Part 6. It's a "D'Arby fight", but much more exciting. The characters are actually doing something, running around while having to pass a ball, instead of sitting and playing betting/video games. Mirashon's design and demeanor are cool. She even does the elder D'Arby pose and says: "GOOD", when a deal is made. The Stand is invincible, like many in Part 6, forcing the characters to chase down the user. The additional disadvantage to the protagonists, the rule to keep on passing the ball to each other, is a good example of these new types of fights. They will utilize the surroundings more (kind of like how Mirashon pays the guard to drop the baseball, so that Jolyne loses). What is also AMAZING, is how this Stand builds onto what Chariot Requiem established. A shadow is the reflection of a person's soul. The Debt Collector comes out of the shadow, of the one that felt guilt for cheating. Jumpin' Jack Flash A pretty long and intense fight. At first, I didn't think much of it, probably due to the user, Lang Wrangler, being uninteresting. However, putting that aside, it's pretty good. What I'd argue makes this fight more intense than many others, is because it has the protagonists at a disadvantage, from the very start. The zero-Gravity environment, caused by J'JF, becomes more dangerous as time goes on, forcing Jolyne and Weather to end the fight as soon as possible. The use of WR, to form atmospheric suits, has to be one of the greatest ideas Araki has come up with, in this series. Everything about the Stand itself, for that matter. How it causes friction and is able to deflect projectiles with changes in air pressure, was exciting to behold. We also have Jolyne using her string, in the same way as Bruno used Sticky Fingers. She was seen to be able to extend her reach, by unraveling Stone Free's arm, showing just how vast it's capabilities are. We even see Lang have his moments. Chucking rats, to blind Jolyne, and using that makeshift "Oxygen bomb" were some of the most surprisingly unexpected things in this fight. It's a cool ability but, with hindsight, we know that C-Moon is a much better Gravity-based Stand. Nevertheless, J'JF is still pretty dangerous. The fight is lengthy, so there's quite a bit of action, which also serves to reveal Weather Report's abilities. The ending, is one of the most satisfying beatdowns in JoJo. How the force of the air, entering the vacuum, kept pushing Lang towards Jolyne, allowing her to give him a long beating, was satisfying and well earned. [An interesting fact about J'JF: It started out as a humanoid-type, but became a suit-Stand, halfway through the fight] Limp Bizkit Another banger of a fight. Everything, from the ability and it's brutality, to the pacing, was masterfully executed. That said, I don't see people complain about this one. It also served it's purpose of giving Hermés a backstory and some focus. Sadly, as cool and intrigueing as the main cast is, they don't get enough time for any form of character development (apart from Jolyne and Weather).
HALFWAY POINT
And now we get to the Ultra Security Punishment Ward arc, revered as: "JoJo, at it's worst". Hopefully I provide some arguments as to why you shouldn't automatically treat it like complete garbage. Survivor Yes, I'm praising this Stand. As DIO said, it's rather usless/weak. Pucci, however, saw the potential in it and, sure enough, used the ability to it's fullest. Survivor is great because of it's influence in the first half of this arc. It's sort of a... "passive" ability, affecting everyone the same way. It makes both sides go berserk, which leads to manic behaviour and gory beatdowns. It’s an unconventional Stand, so it makes encounters feel fresh. It was mostly focused on during the fight against Viviano Westeood, but was shown to be active during the clash with Kenzo, as well. Also, don't forget that Survivor is the reason why the breakout started. Planet Waves It's a great ability. I just want to get something out of the way first. When I see people criticize this fight, it's usually accompanied by the complaint that "Pucci's lackeys are all brainwashed and thus boring". May I remind you, that all of Part 3's enemies, were exclusively DIO fanatics. Nobody seems to complain about that, as much as they do here. Part 6 at least has Lang Wrangler, Kenzo, Foo Fighters, Mirashon, Ungalo, Rykiel and Versace who have goals of their own (some that benefit Pucci, some that don't). So, I think that people should just stop treating Part 6 as the only flawed Part. Hell, Part 5 has the most underwhelming final battle. The Chariot Requiem fight was more intense than the one against Diavolo (yet, they both aren't even deserving of being called fights). With my complaint out of the way, we can go onto the ability. It doesn't get the love it deserves (the fight, too). It's the perfect ability for close-quarters combat. The fact that it attracts meteors, makes it even more devastating (I know Stand stats are busted, but I implore you to look at Planet Waves' stats. They're pretty good and, I feel, are mostly accurate). Even though Viviano isn't immediately aware of having a Stand, the fight is still probably one of the most brutal ones, due to the influence of Survivor. It also is an actual fight, as opposed to what a "JoJo fight" entails. There's actual choreography, as we see Jolyne and Viviano duking it out in a bloody brawl, instead of each side making a move, besting each other until the protagonist wins. I'm not saying that 'that' aspect is completely absent, though. And then you have the meteors hurdling towards Viviano. The Stand doesn't have to have a direct offensive ability, in order to be deadly. With the right circumstances, like in this situation, even a Stand like Planet Waves can be useful and deadly. They even disintegrate before coming in contact with the user, giving him greater freedom of movement. There's also that random, yet badass, Jolyne pose at the end, where she shouts: "Game set!" I suggest going over the fight, with this in mind. It might become more enjoyable. If not, then the anime will certainly make it so. Dragon's Dream Alright, this is a big one. The Stand, everyone agrees, is the worst thing ever. "Why?" - I ask. It's simply Feng Shui, incorporated into a fight. I feel that, knowing what Feng Shui is, falls under general knowledge. The idea is even explained, in detail, so I don't see why people are so confused by this. Simply put: In nature, there are lucky and unlucky spots. D'sD points to the lucky spots. Easy peasy! The thing with the severing of limbs, is just a random side-ability. Another sentient Stand, with a unique feature of being neutral which, in part, allowed FF to win. Annassui calls it ”almost invincible", but in reality, it actually IS invincible. It seems that one of the biggest issues, the Part 6 fights have, is the fact that Araki included a lot of overpowered Stands, which required bullshit methods to defeating them (well... Dragon's Dream), or the Stand is just unbeatable (eg. Marilyn Manson, Highway to Hell, Green Green Grass of Home, Bohemian Rhapsody and Yo-Yo-Ma). FF, using a water reflection, is one such example. The thing is: how would Kenzo not notice this immediately, but is then able to see the water once he's realized that D'sD is in another location? This is my only gripe with this fight, along with the fact that Annasui did NOTHING to help FF. Otherwise, it has great pacing, hateable enemy and a satisfying end. Also, I really like the design and color of Dragon's Dream. What's also a joy to behold, are the hilarious arguments, Kenzo and D'sD have, during the fight. It really emphasises the Stands' autonomus nature and sense of "balance". Somehow, Part 6 manages to be both the goryest and most humor-filled JoJo Part. Yo-Yo-Ma I can't stress enough how much of a necessity it is, that you watch Meti's video on Yo-Yo-Ma. He explains it masterfully, giving evidence as to why it is such a deadly ability. Personally, I skip it on re-reads since I do feel that, despite the scary ability, the pacing is rather slow. It leaves much to be desired. Green Green Grass of Home I'm really confused when I see people discussing what the most invincible Stands are and nobody's mentioning GGGoH. It's user is untouchable, since anything that comes closer will be shrinked by half... infinitely! It's also seen to be selective, in the sense that a shoe or a rock will be affected (and not just humans). So, if you shot a bullet at the user, the bullet will never actually reach them... ever. That's an insane power to have. The Stand itself has an amazing design and I really hope DavidProductions keeps it’s color the same for the anime. Out of all the shrink-Stand fights, this one takes the cake. There's even that one moment, where Jolyne and Annasui have shrunk so much, that the ground looks like a canyon. Another reason I like it the most, is because of how tiny the Stand actually is. It doesn't need to be big, since whoever approaches the Green Baby, will eventually shrink to being smaller than the Stand itself. The ability keeps the user safe, while the Stand is there to eliminate the assailant/s. If you haven't noticed, the Green Baby is yet another parallel to Part 3. That being the baby Stand-user. Pucci vs. FF/Jolyne The high-point of this arc, and a great finale to it. We first have the long, fast-paced chase between FF and Whitesnake. What follows is one of the best fights in JoJo, that literally no one talks about. It's the face-off between Jolyne and Pucci. The fact that they're chained together makes the fight even more tense, than the usual close-up fight. Like with Viviano, it's a straight up fight, incorporating the users' stamina, power and wits. The panels are also stunning and dynamic. This fight also reinforced something about Pucci. He's encountered, and fought, the protagonists on MANY occasions during Part 6. As opposed to the rest of the villains, who have one or two skirmishes (Kira and Diavolo), or don't fight until the very end (DIO, Kars and Valentine). The fight also serves to "wake Jolyne up" and has her determined to put a stop to Pucci, even after she got what she was after (Jotaro's memory disc).
SECOND HALF
Contrary to the first halves, the second halves are always more intense and entertaining, containing the best fights in the Part. And, ho boy, does Part 6 deliver in that department. Jailhouse Rock One of the most unique abilities, for sure. The fact that there's a Stand user, serving as the guard of the prison's exit is a cool concept. MiuMiu's, and her Stand's, design is sooo unique and trippy. Araki stated that the emphasised "brain", is supposed to be symbolic of the ability. What's shocking, is just how scary Jailhouse Rock is. It only works inside buildings (it seems), but that doesn't matter. It can put a person in the state of remembering only 3 things, as long as MiuMiu likes, and can affect multiple individuals at once. Now, if that isn't scary, then I don't know what is. The fight mostly consists of Jolyne running around, and being goofy, yet it still manages to be entertaining. But, towards the end of the fight, things get crazy. Especially with how Jolyne used MiuMiu's ability, in order to escape. Kind of ironic, don't you think? Bohemian Rhapsody As grand, and legendary, as the musical reference and ability are, the fight is mostly a drag. First time around, it was a blast. The overwhelming power, and effect of BR, is truly terrifying. Seeing how it affects the whole world (much like Made in Heaven) makes the encounter seem apocalyptic. To be honest, BR could end the world. The downside, in this fight, is the fact that nothing can be done about it. Weather and Annasui are running around until Weather finally comes up with a way to end the threat. This fight "structure", is the reason I don't enjoy Part 8 all that much. Despite this, it still had great twists and that hilarious ending. Ungalo giving up, just because he failed on his first try, has to be the most unique thing in JoJo. It’s interesting, because he has an invincible Stand, but lacks self-confidence and loses the will to live. It’s kind of ironic. Sky High This is the best sons of DIO fight (and the son himself, but that is covered in my other essay). I'd go as far as to say, that it's also one of the best fights in JoJo. Even though Sky High possesses no defense, it's offensive capabilities are staggering. To simplify the ability: it's about heat; or rather: the removal of heat from one's body. Why I like this so much, is because of how Araki researched what happens when heat is absent from certain parts of the body, and incorporated it into the fight in various creative ways. Additionally, the Rods are a genius "invention", taking a myth and making in-depth lore on it. First of all, Rykiel makes the helicopter crash. An explosive intro to the fight. That alone makes it stand out. Another reason I like it so much, is that the fight is chock-full of badass moments from Jolyne, but also Rykiel. The stand-out one being when they set themselves on fire. What's also enjoyable, is seeing how experienced Jolyne and Hermés are, figuring out aspects of Rykiel's Stand, from his behaviour. And also, how Rykiel's confidence rises and falls as the fight progresses. For some reason, Araki never drew the Stand on Rykiel’s wrist. Hopefully DavidProductions corrects this. Underworld Moody Blues, but deadly. I feel like something more could've been done with it, apart from the two plane crashes. I'm not saying that it wasn't great, but that it simply felt repetitive. It's definitely an interesting case, having the plane "crash" underground and whatnot. It's a bizarre one. We even get that hilarious scene, where Jolyne explains the situation to Emporio, over the phone, leaving him profoundly confused. Overall, it's not to be taken lightly. It's other uses were creative, as well, being able to find out what was said or done (similiarly to Moody Blues). Heavy Weather What I immediately like about this fight is that it has stages. Being a 13-Chapter encounter, it's separated into different segments: 1) the ability is initiated; 2) history of Enrico and Domenico; 3) chasing down Versace; 4) WeatheAnnasui vs. Pucci; 5) the death of Weather. It gives it a good sense of progression, rather than having it all be intertwined, or whatever. Like with a number of other Stands in this Part, there is a terror aspect to HW's ability. It's affecting you, and there's no way of stopping it. It uses your brain, technically yourself, against you. Who knew that one of the most dangerous abilities, in a series like JoJo, was going to be subliminal messages? It's gradual effect reminds me of Chariot Requiem, a bit. It starts to transform people into something else, as well. It's reminiscent of Survivor, in how it's omnipresent ability is affecting people's minds. The fight is also extremely tragic, seeing Weather suffer because of his brother and his delusions. It also serves as a rematch of the encounter, the two brothers had, long ago.
THE FINALE
Stone Ocean's finale has to be the grandest, both visually and emotionally. Both fights are arduous and have a LOT of movement in them. The pacing and abilities are also superb, along with the cliffhangers at the end of each Chapter, making this one of the greatest experiences I've had with fiction. C-Moon What I want to immediately clear up, is that Whitesnake, C-Moon and Made in Heaven are all the SAME Stand. It's just an evolution. So, people that say that Pucci has three Stands, are wrong. I believe it is important to point out just how good C-Moon is, since it’s a main villain Stand, and is criminally under-appreciated. It’s a semi-sentient Stand, with a Range of 20m. It forms a 3km area (dome) of effect where Gravity is pushed away from Pucci. He is able to freely move in this area, which moves with him as the center, and is seen to be able to walk on walls and roofs. C-Moon’s touch inverts gravity of whatever it touches. A very deadly ability, which Jolyne survived only because of her string. I mean, think about it. Even if Pucci hadn't attained Heaven, C-Moon is already an invincible ability, with which he could exact revenge on Jolyne and co. He was even seen to be able to move in stopped time, due to Gravity. I’m sure it’s a parallel of how Jotaro once did the same thing, in Part 3, which makes his shock even more impactful. If the fight lasted longer, I'm sure Pucci would've been able to move even more. As for Jolyne's Möbius Strips, Pucci could find another way of dealing with her (like the gun). I'll use this opportunity to adress one of my biggest issues. The Part 6 Stand stats. Now, I know that the stats are bogus, most of the time, but they are what the anime-onlies will see. I don't want to sound judgemental or condescending, but most anime-onlies tend to accept whatever they see without any thought put into it. They expect to be spoon-fed. The issue is the None stat for Power. It really bums me, since it makes me wonder what these Stands are capable of. Araki probably didn't have enough time to come up with them, leaving a lot of the Stands' capabilities unknown. As examples, I'll use Jailhouse Rock, Underworld and C-Moon. All of them, with None in Power, shouldn't be able to do any damage (either physicaly or via their ability), yet they do. JR socks Jolyne, Underworld also damages a bunch of things, and C-Moon attacks with it's fists. If Araki wanted to convey that their physical attacks are weak, then he should've just put E. None should exclusively be for Stands like: Survivor, Thoth, Superfly and Achtung Baby. Stands that can't do any damage, at all. I'm also put off by the fact that GGGoH and Heavy Weather have ? for every stat. Back to C-Moon. It's reveal, is the best Stand reveal, ever. The way that it exits the ticket booth and eerily floats towards Jolyne, until we get to see it completely, hypes it up exponentially. The way it uses the surroundng area to it's advantage, tiles on the ticket booth, instead of only using it's fists, gives the fight a bit of an original flavor. What is also one of the coolest things, that Pucci does, is set that one room on fire. It was such an unexpected move, that it left me shocked and amazed. In a good way. Jolyne's determination and will, to take down Pucci, is also commendable. She's evolved so much and is finaly able to truly shine. Nothing will hold her back. She'll just patch herself up, and keep going. When her group surrounds Pucci, it's very reminiscent of when Kira is cornered at the end of Part 4. To conclude, it's a great fight, with a plethora of insane moments. I love C-Moon's musical reference and design, like with the greater majority of Stands in Part 6. Made in Heaven I'm sure you expected me to write a wall of text about it. But, do I even need to say anything? The fight speaks for itself. Everything in it shows you that Araki truly meant to end JoJo with it. There's this huge sense of "finality" I get from it. What I do want to tackle, is how MiH's design might've served as a big inspiration for Part 7, Steel Ball Run. Primarily, it's a >!horse and it's rider. Moving on, we have it's crown of thorns, hinting at Jesus. The feathers, coming out of it's neck, look like the ones Johnny has on his winter outfit. Lastly, the "horse's" mane, is braided the same way as Valkyrie's (Gyro's horse).!< Like with C-Moon, I discuss MiH more, in my other essay. So, I will only say that DavidProductions is going to make it the greatest experience we'll have in anime, for a while.
AFTERWORD
So, it doesn’t seem as bad as many deem it to be, right? I hope so. What’s certain, is that it is heavily misunderstood, as a whole. You might notice that I struggled when writing this. I have, because a video format fits this type of analysis the best. It can be hard, going into details about fights, because writing all that down would take me even longer to do. This is one of the reasons why there is SOOO much repetition. If this were a YouTube video, I could articulate myself much better. It's also my frustration, or rather fear, of wasting so much time because the post might not be registered by the sub. The goal of this "essay" wasn't to force ideas on you. The purpose was, for me, to give a different perspective, as best as I could, in order to (HOPEFULLY) break the endless cycle of people jumping to conclusions, in regards to Part 6-related things. The great majority never even has an argument, for why they detest something in it. Or, they are like The Shuckmeister, and find something to be a large problem (other sons of DIO existing, which "diminishes" Giorno's existence), when it really isn't. I sure can't wait to see his video where he makes Part 6 "better"! If you still don't like the Stands, or fights, then don't. You're free not to. Maybe it's just not your thing, or you just don't like how Araki handled the ability, or pacing of the fight. I just hate seeing such a good Part get ripped to shreds this much for no apparent reason, other than a "bandwagon" or people not thinking for themselves. Because, by that logic, we should be tearing into the other Parts, in the same way, as well. Nevertheless, I hope you enjoyed this post! I'm curious as to what you think and what your favorite Stand/s, in SO, are. Thank you for reading!
Apologies for the lateness. Real life getting in the way again (I mean, surely I should prioritise!) but hopefully this will be entertaining enough. I will attempt to do D2 later today rather than put it all into the one post. So, we're on the last few days of Season 3 and La Lega - these are the headlines doe the final round - day 1: I'd Gadot that Premier League Margot Robbie and Ana De Armas, prior to this match placed in 3 and 5th respectively, drew the first blood in the challenge for 2nd place in the Premier League. Ana needed a very strong win to claim it, but this battle was so closely fought that it ended in a draw with Margot having the 3 vote advantage. Margot's score has barely changed, but Ana De Armas has gained a ranking place currently sitting in 4th. u/radrican420
This is gonna be such a close matchup that I didn't even bother betting on it because I know I would end up picking the wrong winner. Either way, we all win with these two. Ana by a slight edge. The eyes.........
I didn't bet for the very same reason! This was always going to be one of the closest matches. League 2 Arguably DC's hottest, Gal Gadot, vs one of 'Throne's hottest, Natalie Dormer, in what I expected to have been another equally close match. Gal Gadot must have wrapped that lasso of truth around voters Gal Gonads as she won 95-50! Gal climbs 6 places to 14th but also knocks Natalie Dormer out of the top ten, dropping 8 places into 17th! u/JustSoGinger
Gal is seriously gorgeous and I don't feel Natalie has much of a backing from the people anymore, no where near Gal's support anyway, so it'll be an easy Gadot win imo
Your prediction was far more accurate than mine! I hope you placed a bet! League 3 Arguably Throne's least popular -but in her prime- star, Sophie Turner, takes on the best thing about the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles movies, Megan Fox, in a battle for honour. Both are guaranteed relegation, but they don't want to go down with nil-points. Fox managed to out-manoeuvre her opponent by 33 points, putting Sophie bottom of the league. Turner drops 2 to 373 on the WR whilst Megan Fox climbs 4 to 359th. u/TheSnickerdoodleKid
Sophie has gotten better with age and at the right angle in the right setting she can appear to be quite attractive. That being said, Megan should win this handily. She has a much sharper sex appeal to Sophie's subtle elegance.
I'm not a huge fan of Fox, but I can't argue against this at all. League 4 Brie Larson and Olivia Munn draw battle. Munn has the power to ruin Larson's chance of promotion, whilst Brie needed to win to stay in that fight with Blake Lively and Hailee Steinfeld close behind. Fortunately for Brie, she managed the win by 38 votes helping her to climb 7 places into 22nd, whilst Munn drops 58 places into 333rd. u/Turtle123712
I voted Munn, Even if Brie looks like she’s having more fun, They are both showing a lot of chest, But Brie Larson seems favoured bu the rest. Turtles don’t like to be trapped in a bath tub, Brie Larson does expect to get this dub
League 5A Both Dove Cameron and Taylor Swift seem to have had a popularity injection this season, but Taylor's seems to have had far more nitro in it, seeing her zoom up the WR table. The voting form for Monday seemed to match that trend with Taylor winning 84-56. It seems the 'goofy glasses' are putting people off Dove's photo. Swift remains static at 21st whilst Dove actually performed slightly better than anticipated and climbs 2 places into 366th. u/Dojo_Casino
Love the disco ball dress on Taylor and that picture of Dove just makes her look like a thousand other Instagram thots. Not particularly a fan of either, but this one's an easy choice for me.
I've seen that term used a lot lately...I'm going to have to look up 'thot' - perhaps I'm getting old? League 5B Chloe Bennet vs the impossible girl, Jenna Coleman in this final season 3 match for the pair. My Auton-sense wanted the Who-Girl to win, but she was outclassed this round by Bennet who won by 8 points. Jenna drops 2 to 300th, whilst Bennet climbs 1 to 41. u/hsikrut
Ahhhhhh, I can't. Two hot/cute masters here. Both receiving votes from this guy. One of the most even matchups of the whole season, for me. I'm fairly certain that Chloe will win though.
Transitional League Two of the consistently least popular celebs on CBL, Alexa Bliss takes on Amber Heard. Both hot as lunk but don't seem to get any luck on CBL for various reasons, but the trend continued today as they ended on a 66-66 score draw. This caused Heard to drop 1 to 371st, whilst Bliss has benefited by two places climbing to 374th. u_Rainmaker4_
Purely on looks, Heard's got a slight edge, especially in the dress she's wearing...but I'm more familiar with Alexa and I don't mind her so I've gotta go Alexa here - and that's without factoring in Heard's...indiscretions
Conference Premier A Two of the lower leagues' hottest celebs fight for supremacy in their season finale. Both have quality assets that will surely take them through to a higher league next season, but alas Kelly Brook has beaten them both, so this game is very important. It was a tough battle and ended up in a draw with 2 votes in Lima's favour. With the lower than expected scoring, Lima drops 5 into 13th place. Arterton climbs 2 into 24th place. u/Dojo_Casino
I'm voting [Arterton], based on the pics submitted. Interesting study in opposites, visually. Lima has kind of a wider face, full lips and round nose, while Arterton face and lips are thin and nose pointy. Their posture is even opposite: Lima has her head and shoulders back, sticking out her midsection and chest, while Arterton stands nearly straight up, almost leaning forward with her arms. Anyway, thanks for coming to my TED talk.
Conference Premier B Finally for day 1 it's Madison Beer vs Miranda Kerr. Whilst Beer has done well for most of the season, comparing the two pictures was like comparing classy fine wine with swigging a half drank beer left that you found discarded on a table at a sleazy club. I'm sure that's not how Madison intended to be portrayed, but that's how CBL voted with Kerr winning 109-31! Kerr climbs 6 points into 7th whilst Beer drops 8 into 369th. u/JustSoGinger
Seeing as Kerr has already won comfortably I'll be voting Beer, I tried doing my part to get Beer promoted but it wasn't to be, hopefully next season she can do better
Quote of the Day There were so many more quality posts that should have opened it up for discussion - however I assume most of you agreed with each other as there were very few replies. For observation that could have lead to discussion, and for being a little different on the day, the 50 tokens goes to u/Dojo_Casino for his TED talk! Top 10 Here is the top 10 following Monday's results. Tuesday hasn't been updated on the WR yet so a further update will follow later today. How are your favourite celebs faring? https://preview.redd.it/36jj8wnf8vo51.png?width=454&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2362826a8d0cfc3764c887beb5aad762ee9c5c0
Long Time Star Trek Fan Finally Watches Voyager: Season 5 episodes 22 - Season 6 episode 2
I promised a long post. Here it goes! 11:59: amazon informed me that this episode involves drug use. They do put warnings at the beginning of the episodes but not about things like suicide or sexual assault. Drugs, foul language, and generic violence. If I recall correctly, the world’s largest ball of string is actually in Kansas. Although it’s technically twine, so maybe we’re making a distinction? Right of the bat- there is a single episode of Enterprise I didn’t go all the way through on rewatch and it is the episode where they have T’Pol telling a story about the actual first contact between humans and vulcan’s. We see it through T’Pol’s relative’s eyes. I was just bored. I love Enterprise but that format just didn’t work for me. So I have low expectations. To be totally honest I was shocked when they got out of the car and didn’t put masks on... it’s hard to remember a time when the pandemic wasn’t normal. Leave it to Paris to shatter Janeway’s illusion of her history. Okay this was a little cute. I am definitely smiling a lot, even when the doctor had them take a picture. Tom was holding B’Elanna in the background. It was adorable. It reminded me of It’s a Wonderful Life, in a weird way. Which is funny because they referenced that in another episode recently, I forget which one. But the idea that something just holds you here and suddenly you’re not upset about it anymore. I was so prepared to jump ship after undergrad and move down south but I’ve fallen in love with my city and I’m not sure I can leave when I graduate. When you find a community and start falling in love with something, it suddenly becomes difficult to just keep moving. So in a way this episode ended up being beautiful. I’m glad I watched it now I’m all smiley. Relativity: man they really love not telling us why Tom was in jail. Also I suddenly see why they don’t put Seven in a uniform. It looks boxy and uncomfortable. And I have a headache just looking at Janeway’s hair. Oh I’m in deep here. Amazon is getting a little too happy with the 47 reference though. They saw 74 and said it was a reference. I just wanted to know what the latin that the time dude said means. When the ping pong ball starting moving again I shouted “Point!” This is the kind of time travel episode that I like. It was fast paced and not terribly confusing because they explained as they went. Seven was good and a little bit out of the ordinary, Janeway was interesting. I don’t have a lot to say about it but I did have a lot of fun. I think it was a more than solid Seven episode. Warhead: Uh I just now saw the episode title after thinking how cute this little robot thing is. I went to write about how awkward Harry in command is. Harry got better as the episode improved. He handled the situation in the best way possible. Yes, we respond to distress calls. When we get there we bug the commander. We do bring the thing on board but with appropriate precautions. We try to talk to it first, then we consider more aggressive tactics. I think he was good about it. The doctor was less convincing as the WMD than some of his other characters. He’s an excellent actor but he’s had better characters. Equinox: something isn’t right here... also how did a ship that get lost later get further faster at a lower speed? I mean I guess they had to get there first and he said they hit a wormhole? But Janeway rattled off info about the ship and didn’t list that they went missing? That’d be pretty big news, wouldn’t it? In part two, man am I glad Chakotay stepped in when the captain told him not to. What she did to the prisoner was cruel. Oh something is wrong with Janeway and I’m willing to bet it’s the same thing wrong with the other crew. Okay this was two episodes and I have very little to say about it. I wrote very little while I watched because I was making cards again. But it wasn’t my favourite in general. Let’s just start off with a summary. Equinox captain starts summoning and killing gargoyle aliens out of nowhere for their warp energy. The gargoyle aliens aren’t thrilled with this arrangement. We switched doctors in there somewhere, Janeway resolved to stop them, they kidnapped Seven, the doctor removed her mental functions and started forcing her to sing Clemintine. Equinox captain had a change of heart, some of his crew didn’t, he followed Janeway’s 2nd rule and went down with the ship. Somewhere in there Janeway tortured a guy and offered the entire Equinox ship and crew to the gargoyle aliens if they would please stop attacking Voyager. Janeway is not the same captain she was in the first episode and she is not the captain I fell in love with. I still like her as a character but her morals and priorities changed and I don’t like the direction they went. I kept waiting for them to say the aliens had a telepathic effect on her but really she made those choices. She relieved Chakotay of command. What the Equinox crew did was absolutely horrific and they should be charged with war crimes. She tortured that guy and should also be charged with a war crime. Everybody but Chakotay made bad decisions. I blame Janeway for getting them stuck here. But I also loved who she was in the moment she did that. She was doing it to be kind to an entire species and while it wasn’t the best choice for HER crew, a lot of people were better off for it. And the crew has proven over and over that they stand with her. They agree. If I were on her crew and given the choice, I would have voted for the course of action she took then. I don’t see that captain in this episode and I’m a little disappointed in that. There was no kindness in these two episodes except when they responded to the distress call. Janeway decided she was going to get her crew members back and spite Equinox along the way. I want the optimism and the hope back from her in particular. Season 5 wrap up thoughts: I think DS9 started a trend in Star Trek where they’re tackling bigger issues and taking a less optimistic approach. Voyager started out more optimistic than Enterprise and is now approaching DS9’s more cynical views. I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, I think a cynical approach to exploration is a valid one. I mean when you get beaten up over and over again, you’re going to start approaching things more cautiously, make more questionable decisions. I think we also got a lot more of that artistry that we saw in DS9. There’s a lot you can do when your characters are pushed to their absolute limits. Seven shined in this season. She had some actual growth and progress. I actually love her with Naomi even though I don’t like kids. Those scenes just make me so happy. Little Naomi following Seven like a duck reminds me of myself, as a child but also now. I think the EMH was better in previous seasons. They aren’t giving him as much room to be funny. Harry had some screen time which we always love to see. Tom has been sort of moved to the role of B’Elanna’s lover but I can’t complain because I love watching it. And he had the demotion so that was a big moment for him. Tuvok needs more screen time and Chakotay needs episodes that aren’t spirit quests. Don’t get me wrong guys, this review sounds very negative but I really do enjoy the show a lot. We get a lot of wholesome endings, they’re very focused on family and I get to smile a lot. But I do miss that really upbeat positive tone we had in season one. I liked how silly it was, it didn’t take itself too seriously. I actually love episodes like Threshold because we can all look back and say “Who in the heck greenlit this? And then they all ACTUALLY made it?” Survival Instinct: there is a 3rd page. We need more Tuvok. He’s just so funny, and also sophisticated and dynamic, especially as a Vulcan. He’s one of few Vulcan’s we’ve seen who is still very much Vulcan but admits to their ability to learn and grow. Gotta love the scene where Tom and Harry are trying to explain to the captain why they were drunk and bruised. But at least they won! Reminds me of Sisko finding Miles, Worf and Julian in the jail... I wish the B stories kept going through this, with the silly security issues and the bridge officers getting into bar fights. I get that Star Trek is technically a dramatic show, and I’m supposed to be more invested in the plot here where Seven is trying to disconnect these three ex-Borg from each other. But they’ve invited a really cool, friendly trading society on board and I was drawn into that. We see lots of Borg. We don’t see lots of friendly people (aside from their petty crimes on the ship). So I think we should have gotten to see a little more of that. That said, Seven’s plot wasn’t uninteresting, I think I was just more wrapped up in the humor. I think it’s good that we addressed how Seven was a child when she was assimilated. She was disconnected and terrified. She was doing the only thing she knew to do and then covered it up because she was afraid she would get in trouble. She couldn’t have known. That doesn’t make it okay, but honestly by Borg standards, which she was at the time, it was. So that was kind of brutal actually.
Here's a longer guide/writeup to polling. There's a lot of myths, misinformation, and misunderstandings when it comes to polling and I hope this will clear some things up!
Hello everyone! So, polling. It's a very hot topic these days with a lot of misinformation and misunderstandings floating around in regards of polling. Most of it I believe is well meant, at least around these parts (although some is definitely malicious), and so here's a write up on the topic of polling which will hopefully clear some things up and correct some errors. Note: I am not a professional on this topic, although I will try to make sure that everything I claim to be factual is based on the opinions and writings of the experts. Also not, I may have missed somethings, but I've tried my best to be as exhaustive as possible (hence the length of the post)
What Polling Is
So, what is polling and how should we use it? It might not seem obvious at first, so here are some general points about polling.
Singular polls are singular data points. There more data points you have, the more accurate you get. Don't take a single poll as gospel, no matter how good it is quality wise.
Every poll has a margin of error. Usually the margin of error for proper poll ends up at around 2-6 ppt.*(there's a caveat to this, but more on that later)
Sampling size is a fairly small part of a quality poll. 1000 respondents in Texas for example may seem small, but it is probably more than you actually need. What matters more is how the poll is conducted and weighted. Use the 538 poll ratings to get an overview of the quality of each of the polls. (Worth noting that their grade for Emerson is outdated, as they've completely switched methodology since 2018 to one that would probably bring them down to a C. Here's a thread on Emerson.) Some things to look out for to know if a pollster is good or not: 1. Accuracy (most straight forward one probably. How well did they do in the last election?) 2. Herding (have all their polls more or less the same result? If so, it might be that they are discarding polls that go against the presumed result, such as outliers. If a pollster does this, they might have a bunch of polls published that in the end all end up being wrong, even if each one individually might be pretty good on its own) 3. Big, uncalled for swings (this is the opposite of herding. If every poll is an outlier, something is probably wrong. In particular if one poll is an outlier in one direction and the next in the other, as it means it's not just a bias, which all pollsters have to a degree, but something wrong underneath the hood)
Polls aren't forecasts. Polls are snapshots in time. You can make out trends based on movement in polling aggregates, but just looking at the evolution of the poll results of a single pollster isn't necessarily a good way to look at it (unless it's a tracking poll. Although there can be issues there as well). 538 does not do polling, it is not a pollster!
Common myths about polling
I'd like to dispel some common "myths" about polling.
"X poll was wrong, thus polling can't be trusted" Polls are only individual data points, and are not very useful on their own. A lot of polls are outliers (although it's worth noting that outliers are a good thing and you should be as suspicious of pollsters that are too consistent as of those that are too random in their results), and different pollsters have different built in biases (although it is worth noting that polling biases aren't necessarily towards one party or another). Use polling aggregates if you want a proper overview of the polling situation. I would also recommend checking out forecast models (more on models/aggregates below).
"National polls are useless, only state polls matter." Whilst it is true that presidential elections are decided state by state and the Electoral College, using proper models the EC advantage can be calculated. National polls also generally have smaller margin of errors than state polls and are generally more accurate.. Best result is a combination of state and national polls, which is what proper forecasting models such as 538's or The Economist's model that takes both state-level polling and national polling into account.
"Polls benefited X last election, thus they will benefit X this election as well." There is no evidence of this. In general it is seemingly random. If there is a major polling error in one direction or another one election cycle, then proper high quality pollsters will generally try to adjust for the next cycle. For example see the Great Lakes region, where there was a polling error in favour of the democrats in 2016. Now in 2020 polling in the Great Lakes region is significantly worse for Biden relative to other regions than it was for Clinton. That doesn't mean Republicans wont overperform there again, but it could very well be the democrats that overperform this election. A great example of this would be the last two UK elections, where Labour overperformed the first, and then contrary to people's expectations underperformed in the last.
"Suppressing mail in ballots hurt democrats disproportionally, meaning polling will overestimate democrats." No clear evidence of this, and there is a lot of conflicting information on this topic. It may very well hurt republicans just as much in the actual election than democrats. This is also why some republicans "surprisingly" have criticised Trump in this regard. Trump's crusade against mail in ballots is if anything, nonsensical, at least from a "getting re-elected perspective". What it's more likely to do is delegitimizing the democratic process and creating room for being able to claim that in the event of a defeat that the election was illegitimate...
"Voter suppression and fraud neutralizes any lead, no matter how large." These aspects can have a decisive impact on close elections, but unless the election results are simply made up (see: Belarus) the effects are relatively limited, especially in a country as the US. There is a reason why even straight up dictators from time to time lose elections.
"Texas won't matter this cycle. And don't believe polling in Texas" I just want to single out Texas since it is an interesting state this election. The thing about Texas is that it is trending in the opposite direction of the Midwest, and swings in Texas are generally independent of those up north. And if Biden wins Texas, he could lose Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win. That would be unlikely, but it's a statistically likely enough of an occurrence that it is worth bearing in mind. Also worth bearing in mind is that polling in Texas both in 2016 and 2020 actually showed a significantly larger republican lead than the actual results. Now, there is no evidence to suggest that just because polling overestimated one side on election that they will overestimate that same side again next election, but it does mean that contrary to popular belief, if polling shows a tie in Texas it most likely actually is a tie.
2016 polling, what was the deal with it?
National polling was spot on. The final Clinton margin in polling, according to 538, was 3,6. The actual margin, was 2.1, which is perfectly within the margin of error and about as accurate as it gets. National polls are in general the most accurate polls you'll find: they'll usually have larger sample sizes, more thorough methodology, are less prone to region specific errors (more on this later), and there's simply more of them. Of course, the EC screwed her over, but as I mentioned before it's possible to take it into account. In 2020, the chances of a Biden win depending on his popular vote margin according to The Economist's G. Elliot Morris are the following: +0-1: 4% to win the electoral college +1-2: 12% +2-3: 30% +3-4: 57% +4-5: 80% +5-6: 93% +6-7: 98% +7-8: 99%
People vote by region almost as much as they vote by state. What I mean by this, is that states are interlinked, with similar states voting similarly. (At the bottom of The Economist's forecast you'll find a handy model for inter-state correlation.). Some notable correlated regions would be the great lakes/Midwest region (MN, WI, MI, IA, OH, PA, MO), the Southwest (CA, NV, AZ, NM, TX - although the correlation between these states is clear, it is looser than in the great lakes/Midwest), The South/Deep South (MS, LA, AR, Alabama, Georgia, SC, NC, TN). There is plenty of overlap though, and some other interesting correlations (Montana is closely tied to the Great Lakes, Maine too). This means, that if polling in one of these regions happens to favour one candidate over another, then it is likely that it has also favoured that same candidate in the other similar states. In practice, this means that if WI, MI and PA all are close, it is likely that one candidate will win all three. And even if the candidate that overperformed regionally didn't win all the states (that would be unlikely), it is likely they did overperform in all similar states. If Biden overperforms in PA, he'll not only likely also win WI and MI but also come much closer in Ohio and Iowa, even if he doesn't win there. In 2016, polling in the Midwest/great lakes overestimated Trump, primarily due to the error of not weighing by education in most state polling (an error that has since mostly been corrected), which is ultimately what won him the White House. In some states, this error was much bigger than others, with WI and IA falling outside the margin of error, whilst PA and MI fell mostly within. These polling errors happen every election, however they very rarely happen to happen exactly where they needed to happen for an upset. Some polling statisticians do for these reasons consider the true margin of error, at least for state polling, to actually be around 7%.
We don't remember 2016's polling because it was wrong, but because the candidate in the lead lost. This is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. 2016 was an unusually close election in the end, meaning a relatively small error could, and did lead to an upset. Plenty of other US elections have had much worse polling than 2016, but we simply don't remember those elections because the candidate in the lead won. Had Clinton won the election with a 10 point popular vote landslide, that would have been a much, much larger polling error than the one we had, but no one would really have bat an eye because the presumed winner, well, won. Of the 36 national elections (midterms and presidential elections) the US has had where modern polling has been a thing, 34 of those elections had the party/candidate in the lead go on to win the election. The only two elections where polling predicted the wrong winner was of course 2016, and also 1948 (although worth mentioning that there was 1/50th the amount of polling, and it was a lot less scientific in those days). National polls did accurately predict the winner in '18, '14, '12, '10, '08, '06, '04, '02, '00, '98, '96, '94, '92, '90, '88, '84, '82, '80, '78, '76, '74, '72, '70, '68, '66, '64, '62, '60, '58, '56, '54, '52, '50, '44, '40 and '36 (note: there was for some reason no polling for the '86 midterms).
The media is not the same as polling. The media, probably unintentionally, created a narrative in regards to polling. We remember the narrative and general discourse much more than the underlying data, especially if the data goes against our preconceived notions of the race.
The polling situation in 2020
National polling is fantastic for Biden. He's never been below 47% and has stayed at 50% or above for most of the race (compared with Clinton who never got to 50%!). No candidate consistently polling around 50% has ever lost an election (although there are to be fair not a ton of elections to compare it to.) Furthermore, no Incumbent behind in the post-convention polling has ever been re-elected.
If you ignore RCP (more on that later), Biden is doing better in all swing-states than Clinton, with the possible exception of the Midwest (which is more a sign of polling being much better there than in 2016 than him actually doing worse than Clinton).
Texas is as I mentioned earlier, in reach! Trump is of course favoured, but for the first time in decades it's actually looking pretty good! (The senate race on the other hand... well, you can hope for the best at least, but it's very much a long shot). Due to how close the election is in Texas and how big the state is, there actually a fairly good chance Texas ends up being the tipping point state. As it stands, according to Morris from The Economist, the chance of each of the probable tipping point states being the tipping point state is as follows: PA: 22% FL: 17 MI: 14 WI: 8 MN: 6 TX: 5 AZ: 5 NC: 4 VA: 4 GA: 3 NV: 3 NH: 2 NM: 2 CO: 2
2020 is the most stable contest on record. The biggest change in polling for Clinton over the course of a week was 3 points, compared with Biden's biggest change within a week being 1.5 points. Also, the smallest lead Biden has ever had was 3.4, back in mid April, compared with Clinton who was tied in late July (and the RCP average even showed Trump in the lead). Things could suddenly become volatile in Trump's favour, but it's unlikely. Biden and Trump are known quantities, and the civil unrest and COVID-19 are likely to stick around until election (neither of which is helping Trump.) Although support for the protests and BLM has fallen over the last couple of months, support for Trumps handling of the crisis hasn't gone up.
Trump is in a slightly better polling position than in June (and even more slightly better than in July), but he's also closer to election day, and the difference is within the margin of error. It is likely that it will tighten slightly, but it is also quite possible for the race to widen again or simply not move at all.
Why polling shouldn't be ignored
Alright, this is more of an opinion than analysis, but I want to include it anyways.
It lets you know what to target. What are the battlegrounds? Where should I donate? etc,. Well, roughly at least (keep in mind the margin of error and possibility of an upset)
Constantly saying that we're actually way behind is a lot more discouraging. I don't know how you're going to motivate someone by saying that they should think we are hopelessly behind (seriously, if we were 10 points behind at this moment, there would be no possible way for Biden to ever win. Might as well pack up and leave the country!). A lot of potential democrat voters in for example Texas already think their situation is hopeless, EVEN THOUGH IT ISN'T, and focusing on negativity isn't going to motivate them and convince them that their votes do matter, and they do matter!
Election models
RCP - DON'T USE IT! RCP is pretty good for their historical records going back to 2000, but they are in a lot of ways an awful aggregator. Thanks to their method of just picking the five most recent polls and not doing any weighing, they are prone to a lot of phantom swings. I've seen people freak out/read way to much into the RCP average despite the only movement being due to five similarly biased pollsters releasing their polls at roughly the same time. RCP is also clearly partisan and there's little they are doing to hide their right wing bias, and although that in and of itself doesn't disqualify them, the fact that they do not include several high-quality pollsters without giving any reason (they refuse to answer if you ask them). This third aspect is in particular why you shouldn't put to much stock in RCP, since it's not a matter of a misleading model, but a matter of straight-up lying.
538. Ok, 538 is pretty good! Although, there are some issues to take into account. First, they include even some low quality pollsters such as Rasmussen, attempting to weigh them. Silver's philosophy here is that variety is good, and that the occasional error caused by it is cancelled out simply due to the amount of data. Weather or not it's a good way of doing it I can't answer (I don't think anyone has a definitive answer), but it is worth bearing in mind as it has at points during this cycle led to smaller phantom swings. My biggest issue here is with the actual forecast model. Now, I don't think there's anything malicious in regards to how Silver configured his model, but I do think he's become a victim of ego and fear. I get the sense that he's worked a bit to hard on adding uncertainty, not because it is warranted, but because he feels that there should be. See: his use of NYT headlines in his model. Some of the output is also really wonky as a result, with it spitting out some ridiculous results like Biden winning literally every single state except his home state! Also, as some have pointed out, if you look at California which the model gives Trump around 0.36% chance of winning (seems a bit high, but ok, fine), if Trump wins California - according to the model - Biden still has a 25% chance of winning the election. Meaning, of the 40k scenario it produces each day, a dozen of them have Trump winning California yet losing Texas and other states causing him to lose the election. No other model has such a scenario occurring even once. All of this is to say, the 538 forecast has some really wonky behaviour and I don't really trust it. All of that being said, there's most definitely nothing nefarious about it and Silver may very well have some points in regards to uncertainty.
The Economist. Personally my favourite of the bunch. Maybe a bit to certain when it comes to some things, but is in general much clearer in the information it provides than 538 and the data and model itself seems robust and good. All of that being said, Silver is more experienced (although that is not always a good thing), and I wouldn't take even my favourite model as the undisputed truth.
JHK Forecasts. I we're talking about experience this is the forecast with the least experience behind it. I don't know the ins and outs of it, but, from what I can tell it's actually pretty decent! I generally like the UI of this one, even if the sports analogies are potentially problematic, and it also has forecasts for the Senate and House (although once 538 releases their House/Senate forecasts hopefully, I don't really see any reason to use this above 538's). So, do what you will with this one.
Helmut Northrup/Allan Lichtman. Um... feel free to completely ignore these two. Northrup's model is complete nonsense to almost a comedic degree and Lichtman's model, although tempting, is very subjective and most of it's success has had just as much to do with luck as factual inference. Also, the notion that he has predicted every election since 1984 is also a half truth (maybe even a lie!). Also also, polling predicted every election between and including 1950 and 2014, including midterms, which is an even better track record than Lichtman and that's not even including forecasts! Only reason to bring up Lichtman is if you want to feel better, but you can just look at the polls if you want that. And if we're supposed to be on the side of science, I don't think we should spread this around.
Betting Markets... just... don't even think about using them as election models. I could do an entire writeup on how the not only conceptually are an awful idea to use for this purpose, but how the data itself is completely contradictory and in general useless.
I apologize if there's some repetition in the text, I wrote this on two separate occasions, and I wanted to be sure I didn't miss any important detail. Also not a native English speaker, although I hope that wouldn't affect anything. TLDR: Polling good, not perfect. Don't ignore it, but learn how to use it.
Dylan Demelo DeMelo seems to be a favourite on this sub, and for good reason, he’s a 27 year old right-handed defenceman, UFA, and coming off a strong season. As someone who watched him play live a few times last season, thanks to those insanely cheap Sens tickets, I’ve definitely imagined how great he’d look in a Leaf uniform. But then I saw that prior to this season, he’s had three years of sub 50 CF%. This led me to question whether he’s really a smart bet, or if he’s fools gold, coming off an outlier season. 5v5 fancy stats over the last 5 seasons (naturalstattrick) The first thing I noticed was his Time on Ice took a significant jump after he was traded to Ottawa. This also coincides with a significant drop in CF%. Without the context that Ottawa was atrocious that season, those numbers don’t look very good. But since Ottawa was awful, his 47% CF% doesn’t look as bad, when you see that his CF% Relative to his team was +3.12 (meaning that when DeMelo wasn’t on the ice, their CF% was roughly 44%). That brings me to the answer to my first question, what’s the deal with his sub 50% CF% seasons? Well, his Relative numbers seem suggest that his teams were generally better with him on the ice, than without. Aside from the 2017/18 season, he’s always posted positive Relative Corsi numbers. So even though the numbers don’t look spectacular at first glance, they look a lot better when you see them compared to his teams numbers when he isn’t on the ice. When we look at his xG%, every season (aside from his small 10 game sample with Winnipeg this year) his team has been better with him on the ice, than not. This is an obvious trend with DeMelo, he makes his team better. 5v5 points over the last 5 seasons (naturalstattrick) DeMelo is clearly not a point producer, with a career high of 22 points (17 at 5v5). This will likely mean that he won’t command huge salary as a UFA. Using CapFriendly’s Contract Comparables tool, I took Demelo’s top 35 comparable contracts (all that resulted in a % Match over 90%) and averaged out their contract length, and cap hit percentage. The results were: Average Length- 2.5 Years Average Cap Hit Percentage: 3.06% Using the $81.5M flat cap, that rounds to $2.5m. So, the average contract of his comparables is $2.5m AAV, for 2.5 years. If I were to make a guess, unless a team overpays, or the flat cap softens the market, that means he’ll likely get something along the lines of 3 years at $3m. My conclusion to this, is this should be a guy that the Leafs absolutely pursue. He’s a 27 year old RD that consistently makes his teams better. He won’t break the bank, and would seemingly be a great fit beside Mo/Derms/Sandin. Come Home Demelo!
The hypocrisy towards jungkook by army is astonishing
My very first post and ohhhh boy is this gonna be long. Please don't tell me that I'm spewing bullshit btw, in my 2.5 years of being in the fandom, I've observed a lot of things. Before starting, I'd like to add that I'm not an akgae and dislike victimizing the members because they aren't kids and can speak up for themselves very well. I might be a tiny bit biased as a jk stan lol, but I still love all of the other bts members. To start off, this post is inspired by a tweet. I can't find it now, but it said something along the lines of "Baby army's, don't let jk solo stans brainwash you into believing jungkook didn't get a solo mv and is mistreated", and it got around 30k likes. Edit : finally found the source https://twitter.com/seokonly/status/1292776043573465089?s=19, it's somewhere in this thread. While I don't believe jungkook or any bts member for that matter is mistreated, euphoria definitely is not a solo mv. Not only is it 9 minutes long with all the members appearing in it, it was the theme of a non-existent album. All the other vocal line members had their solos appear as comeback trailers, except for jungkook. I have absolutely no idea why the fandom is so eager to push the narrative that euphoria is a solo mv, when in fact it is not. Any unbiased person would see this, instead of ignoring all the arguments of it not being an mv. Most of the comments are also backhanded compliments like "sorry jungkook, but I was too busy looking at (insert bias name) member." The amount of times I have seen that jungkook is priveleged and rapline is so held back omg is just laughable. To this date, rap line are the ONLY ones with multiple solo mvs, and I'm okay with that as rap line contribute so damn much to bts songs and they should have the chance to shine alone too. Also the fact that rap line have themselves done most of the work for their mixtapes, and they haven't been handed all of that by the company. I recognise all of that alright? However, Jungkook is called priveleged and the company favourite, for no reason other than him doing his job as main vocalist and center. In short, the work jungkook does for bts brings more attention to bts AS A WHOLE, whereas the work the members do for themselves (ost, mixtape, solo mvs, drama) etc brings more attention to them as INDIVIDUALS. Hmmm, I wonder which one benefits more 🤔😑. Keep in mind that I'm not bashing any of the members here, I am quite happy for them and always make sure to support their work. To add to this, I feel like if maknae line (especially jk)would've gotten the Collab with Becky g, we'd see thread part 3531 of why other members deserve it more. You can see this with the fact that so many so called ot7 were upset that jungkook was on waste it on me, and didn't even bother to listen. In general, I think centers have it hard because of so much visibility, so stans who bias other members tell that they are overrated, overhyped, and undeserving. But jungkook especially has it quite hard because not only is he the main vocalist, he's also lead dancer, center, sub-rapper and obviously one of the most popular. All these positions put together obviously result in more and more army's discrediting his hard work. It also doesn't help that he has the title of golden maknae, and is so loved by his hyungs. There are unrealistic expectations placed on jungkook, like if he does a great job, ok he's the golden maknae this is his job lol we're not gonna compliment him. But if he's a bit off, everyone goes oml he's overrated, I knew it all along. I can't even imagine the burden of being the center of a group at 15 years of age. The golden maknae title is low-key a curse sometimes, I've seen people claiming that their bias in fact deserves this title or something and I just facepalm. It was something given to him by rm earlier on in their career when he wasn't very confident about his skills. I still remember army's discussing which bts member would get ego, everyone wanted jhope to get ego and the few ppl telling that jungkook also might because he had yet to receive a solo mv were either ignored or were told to "stop acting like solo stans, your bias already gets majority of lines from bh let hobi have this for once". The narrative that hobi is held back is prominent among the fandom even to this day, when he's had so many solo mvs, collaborated with Becky g who is quite a big name and has overall begun to establish a name for himself. I will be brutally honest here, hobi isn't the major focus of bts mvs because he doesn't attract new fans as much unlike jikook who are major stan attractors. However I believe that hobi should have been center of on dance break instead of jk and should have been flanking the center instead of taehyung but oh well that's a discussion for another day. Also the rainism performance, there was so much bashing of jungkook because he was the major focus to the extent that I'm pretty sure that jungkook saw all the cries and even wrote a message that he would do better next time. It is always a constant with jungkook, with stay gold jimin stans trended a hashtag demanding for more screentime, a thread on mistreatment of taehyung got around 50k likes and I don't even need to talk about how much hyung line stans put down ml to hype up their respective biases. I always feel that jikook are the most hated bts members, but while jimin gets hate from outside the fandom, jungkook's biggest anti are army themselves. Like this is the man who has army tattooed on his hand and even composed a song for them, I sometimes feel this fandom has never deserved him. I feel like a lot of ot7 army are hyung line stans who can't bear to see ml more popular so they shit on them, and call the hl underrated all while crying that they're ot7. Whenever anyone speaks up for maknae line, they're regarded as a solo stan, but literally every freaking person forgets that bts are so huge all members will def have solo stans. Hl solo stans get away with every single damn thing while ml get called out for every small thing. They want their bias to become even more popular than ml, so will hype up rap line mixtapes, but are mute when it comes to ml. Whenever jungkook stans complain, we are told to shut up because our bias is the most popular. We just want a solo mv for god's sake, not anything else. Is that a lot to ask for? Please also don't come at me with the argument that maybe jungkook doesn't want all of this. He is very ambitious, and always accepts any work given to him, and will take any opportunity to showcase his talent as seen from his multiple covers. Under every single line distribution video, you can see comments like jin should get more lines, taehyung should etc. This fandom doesn't seem to realise that jungkook is the main vocal ffs and is the only one stable while dancing heavy choreo. A lot of army laude Jin's stability but I'd bet good money that he'd be much less stable if he were front and center dancing heavily while singing his lines as the choreo slows down when he (and taehyung sometimes too) sing. Jungkook is also discredited as the main vocalist, I have seen so many army spreading the narrative of jin being the best vocalist (and I couldn't disagree more) and jimin because he gets all high notes. It is sad that nobody hypes up jungkook as the main vocalist, even if u Google search bts main vocalist, you will get jimin lol. I don't see people complaining about jimin getting the most lines nowadays, when he's the weakest of bts vocal line. Jungkook writes all the vocal guides, but I've only ever seen jk stans talking about them while army push the narrative that he's extremely dependent on his hyungs. Jungkook stans are always and without fail, shut down with hurr durr jungkook the most popular member, dumbass he doesn't need a solo mv. "He will get his time to shine, can y'all stop victimizing jk maybe he doesn't want this,ugh solo stans are scum." The most popular member is taehyung, and in general I feel there's little different between maknae and hyung line popularity, it's just that maknae stans tend to be louder. Another point I feel that suga has the best amount of popularity, he's the fourth most popular and is actually quite close to ml imo, so he can keep releasing his solo stuff because nobody is as intimidated of him getting more popular as they are of maknae line and his stans will guilt trip everyone into omg meow meow soo underrated talk about him please. In 2018, I still remember how I complimented jungkook under a yt post, and a bunch of ppl came for me telling me to compliment the others too, bts is made up of 7. All the other comments were also praising a single member, so why does everyone lose their shit when it comes to kook? Army are so diehard ot7 or nothing only when it comes to jungkook, it's like they can't bear for him to get praise it turned me off quite a lot. People need to understand that we can still praise individual members. I guarantee if you see a comment praising any of the rap line members, the replies would be yessss omg my biases rap line so underrated. To this day, I don't scroll down to the comment section because I know there isn't anyone praising kook, you only get them in his fancams. The fandom doesn't respect the stan attracting power of maknae line and are so damn salty about it, they resort to calling them overrated, overhyped and whatnot. The amount of times I have been called basic for stanning jungkook is just sad. However if you tell that you stan a hyung line member, you will get called woke and whatnot. Bit off topic but since I'm on a roll, I'm gonna continue. Jungkook gets so much hate. I still remember army(or v solo stans idk) calling out jungkook for being a bit rude towards taehyung, I think he told him to stop talking or something. On the other hand when tae told jin to stop talking, dead skin cells are coming out of your mouth, they were like OMG YES KING. Jk's the punching bag of this fandom, he is over sexualised, babied too much, used as a toy in literally every ship, and is apparently whipped for every single member. I sometimes want him to stop being so nice and sweet and straight up behave like taejin and establish boundaries. This guy literally gets the worst end of every single stick out there. Lol am I making sense idk. Under very jungkook appreciation post or thread, without fail there will be that one person who says wow his hyungs taught kookie well and that will get a lot of likes and agrees. I feel like army overestimate bts role in raising jungkook, and sometimes act like he was dropped off to their doorstep when he was five and everyone else was 15. He was still an ace when he hadn't met bts yet, and was scouted by a lot of other companies apart from bighit. Jungkook is more than a collection of his hyungs personalities, he is a sweet boy who pushes aside his struggles and cries for others, sacrifices himself for the group's sake (Jin's words not mine) and always hypes up the other members and is happy with talking the back seat during interviews so that others can shine. He deserves so much more than what he currently gets. Pheww end of rant, please also keep in mind that this is me blowing off 2 years worth of steam, I had enough today so I decided to make this post. I understand if you didn't read the entire thing. I apologise if this entire post is very messy and maybe I'm just being pessimistic lol, it's my nature to see the bad in things. I'm very hesitant to post this because of the replies I might get, but oh well I'm gonna do it anyways.
How To Piss Off Fucking Everyone, With Atlas - Episode 7 - Part 1
Atlas’ Track of the Episode (P1):Boredom - Tyler, The Creator feat. Anna of the North, Corinne Bailey & Rex Orange County As the feed comes to life, the camera’s view is directed to the floor, slowly panning upwards. We see the legs of a dark brown mahogany desk, and underneath are a pair ofBlack 'Basquiat' 8-Eye Dr Martens. As our scene slowly reveals the set of HTPOFE, the E1 Climax & Triple Crown Trophies and ‘ROGUE’ E1 Briefcase can be seen in the background, replica belts fromFBE.comof the World Heavyweight and Intercontinental Titles hanging on stands adjacent to the trophy, and his 3 Bookies shine nicely at the back. Sitting on the desk, is the Booker in the Bank Briefcase, the name ‘Dream Bleeder’ engraved in the gold plaque on the front, as well as the custom embossed microphone Apeirogone handed Mr BITB in his departure, a glass case the new home of the mic, and the Doc Martens are swung up onto the table, the FBE General Manager, Atlas Rogue, sitting in his chair, his FBE Tag Title slung over his shoulder, a cocky smile on his face. Before he starts, he reaches into a draw in the desk and pulls out a nameplate, the words ‘Your Boss’ slotted into it giving off heavy amounts of ‘fuck you’ energy. “Well, well, well. Last time I ran this show I was hot off a loss at Unbreakable, a failure, a disappointment, and a broken bodied title-less bitch. However, the Dream Bleeder wouldn’t be down for long; I became the Ace of FBE when I won the World Title, I put on classic after classic in countless Firestorm and PPV main events, became Mr Booker in the Bank at BTE, simultaneously retiring the Fruity Fuck, and now I’m Tag Team Champion alongside Receiver, completing the Triple Crown in the process. I’ve elevated myself even more by joining the FBE Management team, becoming your new boss alongside Matthews, and Receiver, Desmond, and I are at the top of FBE right now, and it’s going to stay like that until some of you lazy fuckers on the roster step up. We’re the only 3 men to ever hold a Fantasy Booking Briefcase, the 3 men with the longest World Title reigns, and the 3 men who are going to purify FBE of its demons; the question is: are you ready?” “But what has ol’ Atlas got in store for you today? We’ve got the third instalment of the Power Rankings, a BTE II recap to remind you of one of FBE’s greatest PPV to date, I’ll be announcing the newest member of The Celestial Unknown followed by an interview with them, and in our main event, we’ve got a sit-down interview with an FBE legend. Stay tuned for all that later.” “It wouldn’t be HTPOFE without degrading some other roster members, so first up on my Hitlist: Conor Cassidy. After sustaining an injury circa Unbreakable II, Conor’s final appearance before his short departure was at Pick Your Poison, where he once again failed to win some gold, the Intercontinental Title staying over the shoulder of Desmond, and you left, the audience quickly forgetting about your existence as they were too distracted by other, proper talents. At Homecoming you returned, losing to Inferno because you’re an incompetent fuck, and then you continued the trend of defeat, not only losing once at BTE, oh no, but you lost twice, falling short in two championship matches in classic Cassidy fashion. Isn’t it strange to think that around a year ago we shared the ring at BTE over that same IC Title, where I, the champion, unsuccessfully defended the belt, you finally winning some gold on your own? And from there, you had the longest IC Title reign ever, you won the tag titles (in a match you weren’t supposed to be in), but you also had an abysmal E1 run, (ain’t it strange for someone to do so badly in a tournament they were the favourite to win in), and after your short run of success, you were beaten by your own teammate, drew with a team amassing a total of 0 wins combined to retain the belts, before subsequently vacating them because you were too much of a fucking pussy to fight without your boyfriend. I avenged my BTE loss, only digging that hole of descendancy even more, and as mentioned before, you couldn’t win a single match since returning. You want title shots? Earn it, buddy. Unless Matthews wants to give you a free shot, you’ll be working your ass off so you can prove to the fans, to management, and to yourself that you are still worthy.” “Ah yes, Capital STEEZ. ‘The 1 Month Magician’; he can make any promising title reign… disappear! The Intercontinental Title? Blink and you’ll miss it! The World Title? Look at it vanish! The Tag Titles? Now you see them, now you don’t! Seriously, dude, I get your bags are filled with other heavy accessories; doesn’t mean you need to get rid of a championship every time you win it. But we can’t blame you, some people just never evolve. You’ll always just be the little Brooklyn kid you started as, and never the true NY pimp you project yourself as. You beat me at Lights Out? You ended my genuinely interesting World Title reign? Wow, someone suck this guy’s dick because he’s hurting his back doing it for himself. You really took your time in beating me, mate: 8 whole months, it took you. But surely Atlas’ loss can only lead to Steez’s success, right? Ah, shit. First off, you get brutalized and beaten via TKO by Ape, then you lose to Desmond Caid for the 5th time in your career, ending your World Title reign unsurprisingly early, and now… well you’ve really fucked yourself, haven’t you? REVOLT is practically dead, you’ve severed ties with almost everyone on the roster, forming enemies you can’t win against, your new shiny faction lost to Receiver and I in your first match as a team, and you’re left in the shadows of Caid, Crowley, and Ape. But I’m sure you’ll rebuild yourself back up, it surely can’t get worse from here for you…” “But don’t worry, because the polar opposite of losing titles quickly has returned: Mr Travis Crowley. Before anything however, I must congratulate him on surpassing my list of nicknames with an even longer collection of monikers, the majority of them taken from the titles of tracks by his favourite rappers or the name of a video game starring Mr Clean’s grumpy nephew. Alas, I digress… what’s the real reason I’ve called out Period Locks? Well, ever since he’s returned, he’s acted like he’s on some other shit. Talking bout Third Eye fuckery backstage and baring his ruby red false teeth, it seems as if Crowley has forgotten where he stands in the company. Luckily for him, I’m the only guy on this brand who’s taken the balls to step up to him. Steez, Inferno, even Finn have all been quiet around the topic of the boring Highly Suspect member, although I’m sure they’re having a hard time not opening their fucking mouths every 5 seconds so we’ll probably hear something from them shortly. You see, Crowley’s only accolade here in FBE is that he held a championship for an extended period of time. Not to mention his impressive record of defences against… The Collective, the majority of the transitioning Juniors entering the Heavyweight, and the occasional genuinely interesting opponent. But then, since he jammed his finger in his car, he was ‘forced’ to relinquish the belt, got beat up by his ex, and now he’s back after missing the biggest show of the year, ready to take on the best and brightest in FBE’s current landscape. Look Scott Crowley, the only reason you’re in the World Title picture is because you boost ratings; the edgy emo demographic once pushed by Inferno has died out after that British fuck refused to win at BTE, Lights Out, P&C… and now that you’re back, how will you survive? You stepped on the heads of your REVOLT stablemates and prevented their pushes while you 4 were a faction, and now that Ape’s gone, you’ve got no one. You used to be able to hand yourself championships when Ape was in power, like going up against a newbie at the Anniversary Show for the inaugural match of a championship, but now that I’m your boss, and I don’t suck you off while you play Call Of Duty, you might actually have to work for a title shot! Heavens above! Heresy! “Welcome Back to The Fall”? FBE was never The Fall: you held a title and beat up little kids weekly while stunting the growth of Steez and Slash, you really think this place was ever your little fantasy land where you’re the King? Nah, you need a reality check Crowley, You surely know what I’m allowed to do now that I’m General Manager, Travis, so stay in line.” "Now with that out of the way, it’s time for the segment everyone genuinely cares about (I hope… ye bastards): The Power Rankings! This is Season 3 of the PR and it’s definitely been our most interesting as a lack of breaks has allowed for our top workhorses to shine through more than usual. So, without further ado, who’s at #10?" 10 – Maxxx Cleavage: 5 – 0 – 4 | 56% | 9 matches | +1 #10 is the only original Jr in the Rankings this Season, as his debut match was in the First Round of the Gedo Classic, where the FBE audience got their first look at Maxxx Cleavage. On Firestorm XXXVIII, Maxxx went up against the hyped-up James Marshall figure, decisively beating one of the tournament favourites, before going onto beat the equally exotic Joey Joey Siwa in the Semi’s, Maxx securing his spot in the inaugural Jr Heavyweight Title Match, only falling short to The Master and eventual winner Thaddeus Hemmingway in his PPV debut. We’d get an exciting JJS/Maxxx rematch at Warzone II, but just like their first encounter, Maxxx got an impressive victory, winning himself a Jr Title Match at Ape’s Summer Break. This bout was made an MMA Rules Match ahead of time, and that may have cost Maxxx as he suffered only his second loss in the company to Damien Blade. Yet he would avenge that loss, taking on Blade in a rematch on Firestorm XLIX, where he defeated Damien, but he was, unfortunately, unable to keep that momentum going into Homecoming where he just came up short in the Jr Title Match Triple Threat against James Scott and Brother Khusu. His performance was so good, however, that he was granted a Jr Championship Match versus James Scott the following Firestorm, Scott pinning the man he didn’t at Homecoming here at Firestorm 50. And finally, he reignited his feud with Damien Blade once more, both men putting their careers on the line in their BTE II ‘I Quit’ match, Maxxx forcing Damien to say those haunting two words, leaving their rivalry with a record of 1 – 2 in favour of Maxxx. A Win Percentage of 56% in their debut Season is well-deserving of the #10 spot, and keep your eye out for Maxxx in the upcoming months, as this guy has got all the potential to be a future star. 9 – James Scott: 5 – 0 – 2 | 71% | 7 matches | +2 James Scott made his FBE debut at Firestorm XLVI, jumping ship from EPW, however, he was bested by Jason Beggs in a Jr Division Fatal 4-Way, bouncing back on Firestorm 48 with a win over former-Jr Champ Damien Blade, a big win that would start his success in the company. It would only go upwards from there, winning the biggest match of his career with a victory over Grand Slam Winner Nate Matthews, management noticing his undeniable talent in this bout and handing him a well-deserved Jr Title shot for Lights Out. And he would capitalize on this opportunity, winning the Jr Championship after beating Maxxx Cleavage and champ Brother Khusu! James would go onto defend his title twice more, beating Maxxx Cleavage and Finn Thomas in consecutive bouts over a fortnight, reaching the minimum number of wins for a champ to relinquish his belt, receiving an Intercontinental Title shot in the process. Unfortunately, at BTE II, Scott suffered a serious injury midway through his match with Thaddeus Hemmingway, the ref being forced to count the 10 as James lay in agony on the outside, Thad winning via Count-Out. Nonetheless, Scott had one of the most successful debut runs in FBE; and he’s received praise from the likes of Ape and Nate Matthews, so he’s one to watch as FBE returns to weekly programming. 8 – Nate Matthews: 8 – 0 – 7 | 53% | 15 matches | -7 Current TV Champion and Commissioner of FBE Nate Matthews was straight off a loss at Unbreakable II, where he lost his World Title to Ethan Fadely after a memorable reign, and he shortly retired afterwards, suffering a beatdown at the hands of REVOLT in a sickening and emotional segment. But Matthews would make his shocking return just weeks later, narrowly losing out in his Warzone Qualifier on Firestorm XLII, before beating United and Independent in a 2 on 1 Handicap Match at Warzone II. Nate would be revealed as a participant in the Heyman Classic, losing to Receiver of Deception in the First Round, only to bounce back with an UNDESERVING win over me… cunt. In a Summerfest rematch, Nate took on arguably his greatest rival, Apeirogone, Matthews’ draw with Ape the only tie on The Infinity Ace’s record, but Ape wouldn’t let history repeat itself, putting away Nate after a stellar encounter. Continuing on with potential Match of the Year Contenders, we saw Travis Crowley defend his Television Championship against Nate Matthews at Homecoming, Nate looking for revenge after Crowley led an assault on him in his retirement segment, but Matthews wouldn’t avenge that beatdown, Travis retaining in their No Disqualifications Match. Nate would return to the Heyman Classic on Firestorm XLVII, defeating Fruit Gambino, however, he would fall short the following episode in a BTE rematch versus Inferno, Nate getting eliminated from the tourney in the process. On Firestorm XLIX, Nate was beaten by Jr Division prodigy James Scott, but he managed to best Brother Khusu earlier on in the night, Matthews aiming to reach 50 career matches by BTE II. Carter Nelson was murdered by Matthews at Lights Out, and Nate would face off with Inferno for the third time ever, unfortunately losing at the hands of The Aether Ace. But a win over Damien Blade would boost his momentum going into BTE II, winning the Television Title in Ultimate X against Conor Cassidy and Isankahlu, ready to run FBE alongside his best buddy Atlas, claiming he will defend the TV belt weekly until he loses it. I pity Matthews, so he takes the #8 spot. 7 – Thaddeus Hemmingway: 9 – 0 – 4 | 69% | 13 matches | +4 In my opinion, the only other worthy fucker not in The Celestial Unknown goes by the name of Thaddeus Hemmingway, and he proved that by winning the entire Gedo Classic, beating Simon Immortal in the Match of the Tourney in the first round, putting away John in the Semi’s, and then going onto vanquish The Master and Maxxx Cleavage at Pick Your Poison to become the inaugural Jr Heavyweight Champion! Unfortunately, Thad would suffer his first loss in Season 3, dropping the belt to Simon Brown at Firestorm XLII in an amazing sequel to their First Round Gedo Classic bout. He would go onto answer Travis Crowley’s Television Title Open Challenge, just losing out to the Deadstar, however, he wouldn’t be down for long, beating Brendan Burke Butler III at Warzone II. Thaddeus was announced as a participant in the Heyman Classic, the only former Junior to enter the tourney, and he was beaten by Capital STEEZ in the First Round, losing out to Inferno the next week on Firestorm XLV. But as we know, Hemmingway is not one to stay down for long, obliterating Alan Cavanagh at Ape’s Summer Break, proving himself a worthy challenger in FBE, and management saw that in Thad, giving him a deserved Intercontinental Title shot against Desmond Caid the next week, beating OWD to win his second Junior Title only weeks after losing his first! At Homecoming, he put away Soren Skarsgard, and at Firestorm XLVIII he beat Brother Khusu, defending his title against Soren again at Lights Out in a successful campaign. And to cap things off, Thaddeus ended BTE with a 2 – 0 record at the show, beating James Scott (after Scott suffered a nasty injury) and Conor Cassidy in consecutive bouts, retaining his IC Title twice, and setting the standard high for the second half of FBE’s calendar year, a statement to the rest of the Heavyweight Division. 6 – Inferno: 11 – 0 – 6 | 65% | 17 matches | +5 Inferno had just made his return as an active competitor on the roster, and his second match back was inside Wargames, a prestigious bout that saw British Ambition put away REVOLT, and Inferno defeated EED on the go-home episode of Firestorm before Pick Your Poison II, unsuccessfully challenging Desmond Caid to an Intercontinental Triple Threat that also included Conor Cassidy. At Firestorm XLIII, ahead of his scheduled TV Title match with Travis Crowley at Warzone, Inferno and Steez both pinned Receiver at the same time in their Guerrilla Warfare Qualifier Triple Threat, meaning that both men entered the prestigious bout, however, Inferno would be pulling double duty. Earlier on in the night, Inferno faced off with Travis Crowley for the first time in both of their careers, losing out to the TV Champion, but his night wasn’t over, surviving to the final 3 in the Guerrilla Warfare match before being eliminated, unable to replicate his Runner Up standing the previous year. Inferno left Warzone 0 – 2, but he would go onto enter the Heyman Classic, losing to Fruit Gambino in the First Round, before defeating Thaddeus Hemmingway, Receiver, BTE I Main Event opponent Nate Matthews, and Capital STEEZ, only just losing out to potentially his biggest rival, Desmond Caid, in the main event of Lights Out. Along the way, Inferno also competed in some non-Heyman Classic matchups, beating ‘The Fire Demon’ at Ape’s Summer Break, Damien Blade on Firestorm XLVI, Conor Cassidy at Homecoming, and Nate Matthews at Firestorm 50, winning all those matches mentioned, and he finished off his Season 3 run with a company-defining match against the retiring Apeirogone, Inferno being the only man to ever pin Ape, ever. Inferno may have lost, but it was an amazing bout that regardless of the result, is worthy of Match of the Year. 5 – Travis Crowley: 9 – 0 – 1 | 90% | 10 matches | -2 The Deadstar continued on from his legendary Season 2 run here, once again retaining his Television Title at Firestorm XXXVIII against a member of The Collective; this time, Brendan Burke Butler III was the unsuccessful challenger. Travis suffered his only loss on Firestorm 39, where, alongside Capital STEEZ and Jack Slash of REVOLT, he was vanquished by British Ambition inside of Wargames, a monumental matchup that saw two of FBE’s top factions go at it. Ferdinand Maxim failed to win the TV Title from Crowley at Firestorm XL, but unfortunately, at Pick Your Poison II, EED had to pull out of his and Travis’ match, Crowley not letting this affect him as he had to step in for his REVOLT stablemate Steez in the 3 Stages of Hell Tag Team Title Match that carried on from PYP on Firestorm XLI. Crowley and Slash retained the belts, and the TV Champ went on to beat Thaddeus Hemmingway in a banger of an Open Challenge, another retention under Crowley’s extensive regime. At Warzone II, we saw a dream match in the making when Inferno challenged Travis for the championship, but Crowley was able to decisively put away his adversary, going onto to also defeat Receiver at Ape’s Summer Break in just the latest dream match. Crowley didn’t stop there, teaming with Ape for the first time in his career, Highly Suspect managing to put away Receiver and I of The Celestial Unknown at Firestorm XLVI. And at Homecoming, we saw Travis defend his TV Title for the final time, beating Nate Matthews in their No Disqualification Match, before being forced to vacate the belt, an impressive string of title defences for The King of the Fall. 4 – Atlas Rogue: 5 – 1 – 6 | 46% | 12 matches | +1 Ah yes. The man that truly deserves to be #1 but honestly, I’m way too humble for that. You see, my Season 3 was pretty bloody spectacular, despite what my record says, so fuck you. Our journey starts at Firestorm XL, where I defeated BBB3, after being announced as the #1 Contender to the World Title. I capitalized on this opportunity, putting away Ethan Fadely in the main event of Pick Your Poison II, finally winning the World Title. Yay. Warzone was up next for the World Champ, and my first defence was in the Guerrilla Warfare Match, my challengers slowly getting revealed in Qualifying bouts held on Firestorm. The first two announced were Fruit Gambino and Ethan Fadely, two ghosts of my past, both of which I had beaten before (yeah fuck you), and a Triple Threat Match was made between the three of us for Firestorm, a Triple Threat which saw Ethan and I simultaneously pin Fruit. On the same night, Inferno and Steez both also drew in their respective Triple Threat, and at Warzone, Steez and I outlasted Inferno, Gambino, and Fadely, reaching the 60-Minute Time Limit as we continued to battle, yet I walked out still champion, unsurprisingly. My Heyman Classic run ended quickly, with my two of my greatest rivals (and greatest allies) taking me out in consecutive weeks, Desmond Caid and Nate Matthews both pinning me, and I went up against Inferno at Ape’s Summer Break, The Fire Demon losing out him. Following this, The Celestial Unknown went up against Highly Suspect on Firestorm 46, Apeirogone and Travis Crowley adding a win to their record after a fun tag team bout, and at Homecoming, I defended my World Title against Receiver, my long-time tag partner and friend, and we battled to a draw in the main event. My title reign came to a close at Lights Out, where Capital STEEZ bested me in the opener, ending the second-longest World Title reign ever at 92 days, and on the go-home show of BTE, I went to war with Ape in his final Firestorm appearance, being beaten by the retiring veteran at Firestorm 52. However, at BTE II, I brought my record to 1 – 1 at FBE’s biggest show of the year, retiring Fruit Gambino and simultaneously becoming Mr Booker in The Bank, a title only the members The Celestial Unknown have had, and I walked out of Season 3 with a record of 5 – 1 – 6. 3 – Apeirogone: 10 – 0 – 0 | 100% | 10 matches | +8 The Final Boss of Fantasy Booking announced he would be retiring at BTE II from in-ring action and from a managerial role, a shocking revelation that also kickstarted his legendary Retirement Tour, Ape wanting to tick off all his dream matches before he left for good. The first match on the list wasn’t a first-time-ever bout, but instead a rematch from exactly a year ago, as Ape battled Nate Matthews in a tiebreaker for their previous draw back at Summerfest. Apeirogone managed to walk out with the win over arguably one of his greatest rivals, however, he went from fighting one adversary to teaming with another, as Highly Suspect had their only tag team match ever, defeating myself and Receiver of The Celestial Unknown on Firestorm XLVI in a classic tag matchup. Ape then went from fighting one adversary to teaming with one adversary back to fighting another adversary as he faced Desmond Caid in the final instalment of their insane trilogy of instant classics. Desmond, unfortunately, was defeated, but these two stole the spotlight at Homecoming, but Ape wasn’t given any time to heal, going straight back into the tour, putting away Damien Blade, before getting two weeks off to rest, and also to prepare for his match with Receiver at Lights Out. In another action-packed matchup, Ape and ROD put on a spectacle to behold, Ape walking away undefeated in his Tour… so far. On Firestorm 50, Ape beat FBE World Champion Capital STEEZ by TKO in their dramatic and brutal as FUCK No Disqualification Match, and Ape also bested me in his Firestorm appearance just the next week. But then, at BTE II, in Ape’s final match, we go the rematch of the century: Inferno vs Apeirogone. Inferno is the only man to ever pin Ape, and Ape looked to redeem himself here, but after an emotional battle, Ape walked away the victor, a wonderful sendoff for a true superstar. 2 – Capital STEEZ: 9 – 0 – 5 | 64% | 14 matches | +4 One of the true workhorses in FBE, Steez had the 3rd most matches in Season 3, the majority of those matches resulting in a victory for him, and he proved that on Firestorm XXXVIII when he defeated Damien Blade, competing in Wargames the following week in a losing effort against British Ambition alongside his REVOLT brethren. At Pick Your Poison II, Tag Team Champion Steez went to war in a 3 Stages of Hell Match with Jaxon Storm versus The Collective, however, in the middle of the second fall, Steez was injured after crashing down hard from the top rope, leading to the match being postponed to the next episode of Firestorm, Steez unable to finish the match. However, he made a swift recovery, returning in a Guerrilla Warfare Qualifier Match against Receiver and Inferno, where he and the latter simultaneously pinned Receiver, both men securing their spot in the Warzone Main Event. And in that Main Event, Steez lasted to the final two, squaring off with yours truly as we had an absolute cracker of a fight, ending in both of us reaching the 60-Minute Time Limit. Following this, Steez was announced as one of the 8 competitors in the Heyman Classic, and he started off his tourney campaign right with a win over Thaddeus Hemmingway, his two lives still intact, and he continued that streak, defeating Fruit Gambino the next week. At Ape’s Summer Break, we got Rock vs Rap as Steez battled Corey Gowens in a dream matchup which saw Steez walk away the winner but up next was his momentum bout with Brother Hanzo at Homecoming. Atlas sighs. At Firestorm XLVII, Steez battled his greatest rival in the HC Winner’s Finals, going head to head with Desmond Caid in an epic Firestorm Main Event, which saw Desmond pick up the win, Steez suffering his first loss in the tournament, and on Firestorm 49, Steez had a fantastic dream clash with Inferno, the latter going onto face Caid in the Finals at Lights Out, whereas Steez challenged yours truly for the World Title, Capital STEEZ claiming the gold for the first time in his career. As Steez moved to closer towards his BTE main event match with Caid, he fought Apeirogone on Firestorm 50 in a No Disqualification Match, losing via TKO after Ape’s relentless assault caused for the ref’s to prematurely end the match, and it seemingly cost him, Steez losing the World Title to Caid at BTE in a Match of the Year Contender, Capital STEEZ having a career-defining run in Season 3. And speaking of Desmond… 1 – Desmond Caid: 10 – 0 – 3 | 77% | 13 matches | +3 3rd World Title Win. BTE Main Event. Intercontinental Champion. Heyman Classic Winner. Only 3 losses. Desmond Caid has truly earned #1. But we’ll get into all that later, right now, let’s talk about his first match in Season 3: WARGAMES! Desmond, alongside his British Ambition brothers, vanquished REVOLT in the historic faction warfare match, however, he would go onto battle one of his BA stablemates at Pick Your Poison, as he successfully defended his Intercontinental Championship versus Inferno and Conor Cassidy in a hot opener for the show. However, after a brutal 3-Way Dance, Desmond competed that Firestorm too, his wounds seemingly not fully healed as he lost to Fruit Gambino and Brendan Burke Butler 3 in another Triple Threat, bouncing back by retaining his championship against Jack Slash at Warzone II in classic Desmond fashion. Caid would be inserted into the Heyman Classic, and naturally, he went undefeated, besting both of his Celestial Unknown stablemates along the way, as well as battling Capital STEEZ in their 4th encounter, but those wouldn’t be the only matches Caid would have over the course of BTE Season, as he went to war with Ethan Fadely at Ape’s Summer Break, beating the man who could’ve been the #1 Contender to his World Title last year, but he would also suffer some losses, dropping his Intercontinental Title to Thaddeus Hemmingway on the Firestorm before Homecoming, the same PPV where he was beaten by Ape in the final instalment of their company-defining trilogy. And then, at Lights Out, we got the insane clash of Inferno vs Caid, arguably one of Desmond’s greatest rivals, in the finals of the Heyman Classic, and after Steez won the World Championship earlier in the night, Caid punched his ticket to the BTE Main Event by defeating Inferno, securing a match with the champ for the show. Before BTE II though, on Firestorm 52, he beat Soren Skarsgard, one of the many legends that had crossed Caid’s path in his ascension from FBNXT rookie to FBE Ace, and he defined that title by winning his 3rd World Heavyweight Title in the main event of BTE II, a defining moment in FBE’s history. Caid left with a record of 10 – 3, once again proving why he is #1. So, here are the final WDL Records, Win Percentages, Rankings and match counts for Season 3 [in order of WP]: Apeirogone: 10 – 0 – 0 | WP = 100% | 10 matches | #3 Travis Crowley: 9 – 0 – 1 | WP = 90% | 10 matches | #5 Desmond Caid: 10 – 0 – 3 | WP = 77% | 13 matches | #1 James Scott: 5 – 0 – 2 | WP = 71% | 7 matches Thaddeus Hemmingway: 9 – 0 – 4 | WP = 69% | 13 matches | #7 Inferno: 11 – 0 – 6 | WP = 65% | 17 matches | #6 Capital STEEZ: 9 – 0 – 5 | WP = 64% | 14 matches | #2 Jason Beggs: 7 – 0 – 5 | WP = 58% | 12 matches Maxxx Cleavage: 5 – 0 – 4 | WP = 56% | 9 matches Nate Matthews: 8 – 0 – 7 | WP = 53% | 15 matches | #7 Jay Lynwood/Brother Khusu: 4 – 0 – 4 | WP = 50% | 8 matches Atlas Rogue: 5 – 1 – 6 | WP = 46% | 12 matches | #4 The Master: 3 – 0 – 4 | WP = 43% | 7 matches Jaeger Karpov: 3 – 0 – 4 | WP = 43% | 7 matches Ethan Fadely: 2 – 0 – 3 | WP = 40% | 5 matches Damien Blade: 6 – 0 – 9 | WP = 40% | 15 matches Joey Joey Siwa: 3 – 0 – 6 | WP = 33% | 9 matches Brendan Burke Butler III: 3 – 0 – 6 | WP = 33% | 9 matches Jack Slash/Isankahlu: 2 – 0 – 5 | WP = 29% | 7 matches Fruit Gambino: 2 – 0 – 5 | WP = 29% | 7 matches Receiver of Deception: 1 – 1 – 6 | WP = 19% | 8 matches Finn Thomas: 1 – 0 – 9 | WP = 10% | 10 matches Conor Cassidy: 0 – 0 – 4 | WP = 0% | 4 matches "And now, it’s time to reveal the newest member to the greatest faction to ever step foot in FBE. When this guy debuted just after Unbreakable, he shot off like a rocket, gaining victory after victory, his PPV record impressive, and he finished his debut run with a brutal win at BTE II. He showed off his incredible talent and undeniable prowess when he faced off with one of FBE’s best for the TV Title, and he secured the #10 spot in the Power Rankings just earlier. That’s right, please welcome the fourth member of The Celestial Unknown, The Hero, Maxxx Cleavage." Entering the studio is none other than The Hero himself, wearing a Celestial Unknown armband, his allegiance to the group confirmed. He fist bumps Atlas before sitting sown adjacent to Rogue in a chair at a new desk, the camera panning out to reveal the table had been there all along, and Atlas starts off the interview, Maxxx kicking his feet up. Atlas: How does it feel being the newest member of the greatest faction in FBE? Maxxx: It’s a privilege to be in the same faction as some of the greats. I’m among the likes of the World Heavyweight Champion and the winners of the Punish and Crush tournament. Atlas: What was your brutal I Quit Match like? Surely that shit can get destructive physically and mentally. Maxxx: I’ve never had a more brutal match, I did what had to be done to win, and to those who don’t like it, you’re just gonna need to deal with it. Atlas: How was the transition from the Jr Division to the Heavyweight? Maxxx: It was a kick in the pants to step up my game. Once I was in the Heavyweight Division, I started doing the work of my career, and if I hadn’t transitioned, you would be looking at the Junior Heavyweight Champion. Atlas: You came extremely close to beating Nate Matthews on Firestorm 52, what was it like facing one of FBE’s pillars? Maxxx: As much as I’d like to say I respect Nate Matthews, I don’t have as much respect for him as I could. He runs the company AND holds a title. The ref clearly fast counted at the end, and I bet Matthews had something to do with that. Atlas: You got any opponents or championships in mind that you want to pursue? Maxxx: I would love to capture the Intercontinental title, but the jackass champion has already denied me a match, probably because he’s scared of what I’d do. The Television Title is also something I’m keeping my eye on, if there’s anyone that can beat Matthews, it’s Maxxx Cleavage. Atlas: Who has been your favourite opponent you’ve faced in your debut run? Maxxx: My trilogy with Damien Blade was fantastic, I really couldn’t decide if I like the MMA match or the I Quit match better. Atlas: The floor is yours, with the eyes of the FBE Roster upon you, what’s on your mind? Maxxx: I’ve been the talk of the town it seems, Matthews handpicked me to be his opponent for the Television Title, some jabroni tried to call me out, and now I’m part of the greatest faction in wrestling. Ladies and gentlemen, “The Hero” Maxxx Cleavage just became more dangerous than ever. Atlas: And that concludes our interview here! Thanks to Maxxx for joining me tonight, The Celestial Unknown has only gotten better. Maxxx thanks Atlas he exits the room, the camera zooming back in as the second desk disappears off camera. Rogue reaches into the desk drawer and pulls out a Corona Extra (not that Corona), before removing the lid with his teeth and taking a sip, holding the bottle in his mouth as he swirled it around, creating a vortex inside, and he drained the bottle in a few seconds, the bottle empty as he chucks it across the room. Fadely taught me that one. Atlas winks as he reaches under the desk, a 6 pack of the bottles on the desk now as he chugs them one by one, the camera starting to fade and blur in sync with Atlas’ drunken vision as we reach an ad break.
I promised that I'd make an article once we get some data in, and now that we are almost 3 months old (in just 3 days), I think I have had enough time to collect that data and make a post. So, here are some of our achievements and some of our plans for this year!
1- Some stats
1.1 - The fun stonetoss, antifastonetoss
Let's get the boring stats out of the way first. And because I have nothing to hide, here are our actual stats as provided by Reddit: https://imgur.com/FzNq5E9. Note that third-party mobile apps (like Apollo or Reddit is Fun or whatever) aren't counted.
We passed 1M pageviews in February for sure, if you account for third-party apps. That was our second month of existence!
March slowed down, especially in the sub count, but that's okay. My impression is that we should double our numbers (between 20-30k subscribers), because then we can have a more active sub, which is always more fun, and of course start making an anti-stonetoss sentiment more popular.
These past few days, the sub count has jumped up and down wildly. 300 new subs for two days, then barely 50, then 300 again. I think it has to do with the AMA and being linked again in other subreddits, so keep linking us if you find the occasion!
We're totally prepared to welcome more subscribers, and we can even bring in more mods if need be (though we are very selective with our mods and we don't need more at the moment).
1.2 - The not fun stonetoss
As for the other stonetoss who takes our comics and edits them to make them fascist, I've been tracking his Twitter growth since mid-February and when I get the chance. Let's get this out of the way first: he's been slowing down very quickly. If this trend continues, he will grind to a halt and start losing people (I actually recorded one time when he ended the day with -1 follower, that was a fun day. Sure, 1 person is nothing, but when he grows by 20-30 people every day, that's relatively impressive). I'm not going to bore you with the details, but basically I used the wayback machine to track his Twitter growth from before AST existed, and used that data to give him an average growth over a period of time (namely 30th of November to February 10). So then you find out he was getting 86 new subs on average between Nov.30 and Feb.10, which we can use to make a prediction: just chart every day of the year in Excel and add 86 new people every day. But growth is not completely linear, because the more people know you, the more you get advertised (in an ideal world). So I added a small compound interest, if you can call it that, that takes the prediction I made and adds a certain percentage to the next day -- and I'm terribly sorry, but I completely forgot how I calculated that compound growth! So I can't publish that methodology. I'm sure the calculation was accurate and I trust the results, but they don't mean much if I can't reproduce the algorithm. Anyway, he fails on both of those predictions. As of today, March 31st, he should have between 25368 (linear) and 27715 (non-linear) followers. He has 24624. He got a small spike right after the AMA (which I can do a follow-up on if there's interest but it will take some time as I'm still processing the lessons I learned), so that was probably my fault but his growth has stabilized and is back to, like, 20-50 new people per day, whereas he used to get about 100 (edit: 100, not 10, lol). So his Twitter is slowing down when compared to before we existed. Does that absolutely mean we are having an effect? No, not with 100% accuracy. But I'd wager to say we're at least 75% responsible. So for example, back in March 3rd, I recorded 23 040 followers when my linear prediction expected 22955 (non-linear: 23866), so it took some time for AST to take hold, but by March 13th, his growth was below the prediction and stayed like this up to this day (23334 on March 13th vs. an expected 23817). Stonetoss is losing popularity very quickly, and that's scaring him. He's been very silent about us, but not about the other Twitter users he harasses. His nonchalance only betrays how scared he is. Final note: I focused on his Twitter because that's the only growth we can track. There's also his Facebook that's a bit more popular, but I don't really need or want to track two sources.
2- Some achievements
What has been achieved since AST has been created? Many things, considering that we're barely 3 months in. By the way, I'm not saying all of this or any of this is our doing, I'm just listing what has been happening.
First, of course, Twitter growth is slowing down.
Back in November, ST wrote on his gab page (hey remember that site? Me neither) that he surpassed 1M pageviews for the first time. It took us less than a month. Though of course Reddit is way more popular than his shitty site, so our goal is 2M pageviews just to make it a bit more challenging.
If you've seen stonetoss edits or comics on mainstream Reddit before AST existed, you may have noticed that barely anyone would talk about how they're made by a fascist. If they did, frozen peaches would run to his defence. Today and since late-January, you can't post his comic anywhere on Reddit without people chiming in. Try it and post it here please! (But please do it with an edit that removes the credits and please don't spam subs).
Oh yeah, "stonetoss is a nazi" is almost a meme at this point, so that's pretty cool. I remember stonetoss making fun of it all the time. People are also noticing when the watermark is left on even when you post an edit.
His discord server was banned by the Trust&safety team after like 1 month of operation. They're now on a Telegram group.
He tried to open a gumroad (similar to Patreon) which was taken down after like two days. He's now on some shitty website that doesn't look trustworthy at all. Betting right now that the owner will just run away with the money he's collected in a few months because I can't see that thing taking off.
Oh yeah, stonetoss was banned. We are now the official stonetoss subreddit.
His Twitter is being reported when he sends his followers to harass other users (like the recent Quinton_review tweet you've seen on this sub) and it seems the mods over there are taking notice. I urge everyone to report content that breaks Twitter's ToS, it's the right thing to do.
People are making their own subs to fight against other far-right content creators, and I love that! More info at the end.
We've also tried weekly discussions/debates around a video but they never really took off but it's okay, they've been put on hold for now. I've also been writing short articles to help educate people on fascism and antifascism (they're in the sidebar), and if you want to write your own article, please message the mods and we'll figure something out. We're looking for articles on a specific topic, around the 10k character mark.
3- Plans for the future
Finally, here are some plans AST has for the future. First, our end goal is total deplatforming. We're not advocating anything illegal for that, we want the deplatforming to come from stonetoss himself at a point where he says enough is enough and stops making comics. How will that happen? Basically, at some point, the effort to keep his comic going will outweigh the benefits. Both (efforts/benefits) can be anything. It could be that whenever he publishes a new comic, people flood the comments with criticisms, or it could be that people don't want to keep reading his comics and he's only making them for like 100 people. Anything is possible. Secondly, we're trying to take hold of stonetoss so that we can make it what it was meant to be: a place for enthusiasts of the hobby of stone tossing and skipping. Literally just gifs of people skipping stones. If you get the sub (a few people have asked for it), please name me mod. I want to be part of it. Third, I already reserved metaAST for a meta sub because I've been noticing an uptick in meta posts. Not putting it to use yet, just keep it close for when it starts being used. You can already subscribe to it though you can't post. And finally, more info about similar subs like AST. So, we have some sister-subs being created here and there. Of course there's stonetossingjuice, but there's also surrealtoss and now antifagarrison. Your favourite mod team also created antifaredpanels. I urge you to subscribe there as well! Before I get into it, feel free to make your own antifa sub and link it to me so that I can subscribe (you can advertise in the comments too if they're relevant). Stonetoss has plenty of friends, you just have to go on his Twitter to find them out. They usually stay close together. Now, some people have asked me if we could put their sub in the sidebar, and I'm not against it. However, it's important to me that your subreddit follows this rule at all times: absolutely no advertising for the targeted creator. Remove the credits, don't link to their websites or social media (there's an easy Automod config I can give you for that), and this rule has to be enforced by the mod team. I haven't discussed this with the rest of the mod team, but this is very important to me if we are to be part of the same network. I'm not pointing at anyone and I'm not shaming you for it, I'm just saying that this is the condition I want. So if that's something you feel like you can tackle, then message us to be added into the sidebar, we'll make a small space for you. If you want the slur filter, I can also send you that one. You can configure the words you want it to target (basically just write them in a list) too. And that's about it! As you can see, many things are taking place and many more are being planned for the future. Only you can prevent ethnic cleansing! (And if you have any questions or comments, please write them below and I'll get back to you)
Quick I need a trend to get that karma! I know unpopular opinions!
So. No intro needed, lets just skip to the good stuff Gen 2 is the best cast: Not sure how unpopular this one is but I feel like I have a good explanation, gen 1 is really hit or miss, while gen 3 has poor written characters, im betting to say that every gen two character, except maybe Sam, were good for what they were meant to be. Cameron is a good winner: Ok so let me explain, I think Cameron is a good winner because of how unexpected he is, I dont like Beth winning because shes a bad character and shes unexpected until you realise the sudden spike of plot immunity she gets near the end of the season, also Cameron turns into frikin iron man, name one other character who has been that cool. Ill wait. Cody should have been the male world tour finalist: First of all, Sierra did not carry Cody the entire game, Cody used his own wit and ingenuity to get past many challenges, for example, when he threw his candy at the mines to clear a path. Alejandro had major plot armour, and I can guarantee that most people with brains could see through his plan easily, I honestly think Cody deserved the win more Dj should have been a finalist in Action: Beth in action sucks, Beth's character sucks, she wins action and her storyline ends, its dumb, instead it should have been Dj, not only is he just a likeable character in general, he was forced into an alliance with chef, and most importantly, even when he was found out, everyone wanted him to stay! In my opinion, DJs elimination in action is unfair as hell, and in my head, he deserved a win man. Scarlett was not a bad villain: The writers purposely made it obvious that Scarlett was evil, it was explicitly said so many times that I dont get why people complained, for what she was, a mad scientist spoof, she did her job perfectly, and was a much better antagonist then sugar. The Ice dancers arent good characters: Not only do they have the biggest plot armour in total drama history, their barely ever funny and they just come off as annoying and bratty, much like Courtney in action now that I think about it, they were just shoehorned in since the race needed villains, but they could have easily made Heather and alejandro a team, and have them fufill the villain spot. Dave is the worst character, and im not jumping on a band wagon here: First of all, I watch Ricky, and zoey is one of my favourite characters, but my opinions on zoey and Dave were made when I first watched ROTI and pahkitew, i genuinely looked at dave and thought, and this was my exact quote I said to my friend when we watched pahkitew for the first time, "Dude, its been like four episodes and I already hate dave." It only got worse when I saw him litrally go insane cuz he couldn't get the girl, dont get me wrong sky is terrible to, but dave is just worse Staci is better then Zeke: Hear me out, Staci and zeke were made for the same reason, to be the first out, and if island was zekes only season, zeke would be better, but then feral zeel happened, and it was never resolved, Staci is better because her arc ended when she was eliminated, she fuffiled her purpose and then she went on her way, she didnt slowly become depraved for the cash like zeke did, and so, objectively, Staci is better. Island Trent isnt good and is more Basic then Zoey: I dont have much to say on this one, but if there was a male version of a Mary sue, it would be island Trent, hes bland, hes boring, and thats all I really have to say, he could have been better, if action didnt kick him in the gut and then repeatedly cave in his jaw with a crowbar until the only word he could say was 9. Oh boy a trend I have jumped on! I sure hope im not to late!
Hamilton's problem with vehicle noise (modified muffler/exhaust)
**EDITED*\* (edit notes at the top, for visibility) EDIT 1: It's been brought to my attention that this post reflects a relatively privileged perspective (given the more serious problems so many people are facing), and that some of the language used is immature and unhelpful. I'd like to acknowledge that both of these are true. In the case of the language, I believe (hope) that it reflects temporary frustration more than actual immaturity. So while I stand behind the tone and general content of the post, I am somewhat ashamed of some of the wording choices. EDIT 2: Regarding "car culture" — I have no problem with it, and in certain ways it's quite interesting. I will admit to not properly understanding it. But my view is that we shouldn't need to. Most of us don't understand knitting culture or beekeeping culture or skydiving culture either, but this lack of understanding isn't problematic, as none of these cultures are nonconsensually injected into our daily lives. Car culture is a bit different in that sense. So the argument is not against car culture, or even against the simple existence of modified vehicles; it's against selfish behaviour, and it's about the impact of this behaviour. (For this reason as well, whether an exhaust system is 'legal' or not has no bearing on the discussion.) And the post speculates (perhaps misguidedly; Hanlon's Razor likely applies here), about the reasons for the behaviour. ----- Oh, this may go a bit long. (TL;DR at the end.) Apologies for length, but I have so many thoughts & questions about the vehicle noise problem in this city. (And an unreasonable amount of free time today.) The proposed initiative by city council to target drivers with modified mufflers/exhaust systems is long overdue. It's a step in the right direction. But the actual problem starts long before a vehicle's exhaust is actually modified, and this is what I hope to end up discussing here, along with whether or not it's a real problem for Hamilton.(Although the adult discussion follows a bit of a rant, if you'll entertain it...) Example: HDB In our neighbourhood, there is one guy a few of us have come to refer to as the Head Dbag (HDB), if you'll forgive the salty (while perfectly fitting) nomenclature. In my mind, at least, when all the DBs gather, HDB brings the meeting to order, collects DB dues, proposes key motions, reprimands lower-tier DBs for being too quiet or too thoughtful, and so on. Frankly, I don't envy the responsibility. Anyway, he is dubbed the HDB because his car is the loudest car. Excluding official vehicles with sirens and various commercial aircraft and those rock crushers used in diamond mining pits (though, to be fair, at this point we're toe-ing the 'vehicle' line pretty liberally), it is easily the loudest vehicle I have ever heard. The volume is almost magnificent in its ridiculousness. He wins. HDB completely wins. If you live around here, you know him. You've heard him. He drives a Mustang (because of course), which he paints seasonally, likely whenever he feels his personality has gone stale. Currently bright orange, though in the past it's been bright blue, black/white, camouflage (because of course; war is cool), other colours. Not only will you know when he's in your neighbourhood, you'll know when he's on the nearest highway. And he gets that sweet puppy from 0 to ~90 (my guess) on the residential streets around here within about 4-5 seconds. Every single time. Really, every single time. Because true morons have this wonderful superpower — they're capable of being entertained endlessly by the exact same thing. I can only imagine he plays a solitary Michael Bay movie on infinite repeat at home. Anyway, I have no idea where he goes, but I know he is needed there fast. I imagine either Taco Bell coupons are expiring faster and faster these days, or the courthouse closes early a lot. Hamilton cops of reddit: If you want to bag (or re-bag) a prime DB trophy for your mantle, sit near the intersection of Mt. Albion Rd & Greenhill Ave on any weekday between 7:30 & 8am. I can guarantee a speeding violation, and likely a number of other violations as well. Listen for the sound of an angry, coked-up lawnmower. When you hear it, you'll have at least 3 minutes to compose yourself, prep the radar gun, stretch your ticket-writing hand, and so forth. Then be on the lookout for a bright orange prosthetic ween in the shape of a Mustang. You're welcome. (And then return the next morning to repeat, please.) This guy doesn't strike me as the fast-learnin' sort, but once we get up into double-digit demerit point level, the light may start to dawn. Anyway, I digress. This isn't really about HDB. He's one of hundreds of such dimwits in the city. So it's about the problem in general. And in fairness, I suppose we should assign these people a better acronym. Perhaps not all of them are true, card-carrying DBs? We'll use the less judgmental GwMM ("Guys with Modified Mufflers"). Are you a GwMM? So many questions... (if you'renota GwMM, scroll way down below for the adult discussion) Let's turn the tables for a moment. A genuine curiosity: GwMM, if you lived next door, and I consistently practised my yodeller's rendition of Mongolian throat-singing at 180dB, outside every morning at 3am, what would you do? What would you want me to do? Really, try to imagine it: You've just polished off the last Coors. You've flipped off the TV after watching the evening's top-rated MMA fight. You're all caught up on your Fox News feed. Your tracksuit and gold chains have been removed and set aside for the night. You're exhausted. You finally drift off to sleep, and are mid-dream (you know, the one where you're being interviewed on E! for your world-renowned pickup artistry skills), and then BAM! — I interrupt you at 180dBs. Every f-ing night. Sincerely — what's your move? What would you do? Who would you talk to about it the next day? Which authorities would you involve? Something must be done, right? It can't go on! If you're one of these people, a GwMM, do you... almost get it? Kinda-sorta? (Yes, I know most of the actual GwMMs won't read any of this, or will read it but won't be able to absorb it. But maybe it reaches just one GwMM, a guy who's modified his exhaust but is otherwise on the fence between being a normal adult and a flagrant purveyor of doucheism. Maybe just one person.) GwMMs, you should understand something — the impression you think you're creating, and the one you're actually delivering, are vastly different. As you drive by, here is what most of us think about you (a non-exhaustive list):
You need attention. This is the easy one, the most obvious, and I would think the most inarguable. You need it badly enough to actually pay for it — with your time or your money, or both. Those mufflers aren't free, and they don't install themselves. Know that the need for attention is a weakness. Watch American Gangster. There's a great scene in which Denzel's charater explains that "the loudest guy in the room is the weakest guy in the room". It's a weakness because you're always in need of something from other people: you need their approval. But in your case, GwMM, you don't just need it from your family or friends or colleagues, which is relatively normal; you need it from absolute strangers, from everyone you pass as you drive. This is unbearably sad. The need for attention makes you desperate, and therefore to be pitied.
You're compensating for someting. This one writes itself. You may or may not be. But you should know that many of us strongly suspect this, as you drive by. I would bet on it being one of the highest factors. In fact, I bet it would have actual predictive value in a formula. The higher the number, the more likely to be a GwMM:
none (i.e., female) = 0 (I know, I know; more on this below)
large = 1
medium = 2
small = 3
teensy = 4
"button on a fur coat" = 5
You're emotionally under-developed. You are using toddler-level social signaling tactics. You're flashing your loud, shiny toys around in a bid to earn friends or mates. Trust us on this: As you roar by, there are precisely zero women thinking, "Ooooooh, get me an Uber, I am just way too wet to walk home right now. I need to bear your offspring! Enter me now, I require your seed!!" And so on. Also, no man is thinking, "I need to be friends with that guy, like, yesterday!" You may, admittedly, be impressing the odd teenager.
Your relationship, if you have one, isn't going well. Because of a combination of the three points above, it simply can't be. When you're that self-focused, there's no mindspace left to give your partner what they need. When your need for attention is that high, any relationship will be lopsided. And in general, most halfway intelligent women have little interest in being with emotionally needy, socially embryonic 'men'.
You're uneducated (or under-educated). There is nothing inherently wrong with this. I'm sure you've done the best you could. But it's not something most people are eager to shout from the rooftops (/tailpipe). And feel free to be angry about the assumption, and the stereotype, but let's be honest — your average pediatrician, for example, isn't driving a Civic Type R with a plastic 6ft spoiler and 150dB-tuned exhaust, or a lifted pickup with six chrome XXL tailpipes for "performance"\. We know you could tell us your favourite athlete but not your favourite author or documentarian. We know you think a Monster Energy Drink and a hot dog is a valid adult meal. In short, you're a halfwit. And halfwits, well, tend to be poorly educated. And again, while there's nothing *necessarily wrong with this, it's a sad thing to want everyone to know, as you drive around the city.
\* I hate this argument. GwMMs, you can stop pretending you need the modified exhaust for better "performance". I don't doubt the improved airflow can maximize horsepower or whatever, but for what purpose? You're not rescuing a herd of Chechen refugee infants from a burning orphanage; you're trying to meet your bros at Jack Astor's before all the 'good' sides get defrosted and sold out.
You're probably not doing well financially. This is related to the one above, but isn't quite the same. When you put a $2,000 aftermarket exhaust on a car worth $8,000, you're signalling to most of us that you're probably a financial moron. When you drive a lifted $90,000 truck with an obnoxiously loud exhaust, we know you've financed it at 7.99% over 96 months and can barely afford the payments (and we think that before we see you idling it outside Cash Money) — because low-grade behaviour in general usually correlates with dumb financial behaviour. As with the item above, doing poorly in this area shouldn't be a source of shame for anyone, but you should know that when you rev by at 150dB, you're undermining your attempt to look 'money' in that $90k truck.
You're on your way to do something imbecilic. I promise you, no one is left with the impression that you're racing off to perform surgery, or to re-test your lab results, or to refine the last chapter of your treatise on human rights abuses in Malaysia. We know you're racing off to pick up Skyy vodka and a tub of hair gel.
You're an asshole. Or, less dramatically, but no less critically, you're selfish. This should bother you more than it might. If you can't stretch cognitively enough to see why this is a bad thing for others, and for society at large, consider that you'll probably (continue to) have a terrible, striving, unfulfilling life. Until you calm down and recalibrate your viewpoint, you will remain in that desperate, cringy mode in which most assholes of a certain particularly douchey variety seem to be stuck. And yes, as you scream by, we all know you're in that place — that hustling, scraping, gonna-get-mine place that almost no one ever climbs out of. So you're sad. A sad, unenviable asshole.
(non-GwMMs, have I missed anything?)
And again: These impressions created with your loud 'performance' exhaust would otherwise be fine, not so bad at all, in fact, if you weren't tryingso goddamned hard to create impressions painfully opposite to most of these. So you're wasting your time, energy, and money. Sad. GwMMs — more to consider:
Someone woke up today and thought, "During the peace summit this afternoon, we must tailor our opening commentary so as not to alienate our counterparts in Belgium, the country closest to switching their vote on this important resolution."
Someone woke up today and thought, "The protocol for freezing leftover genetic material in our lab needs to change. The last experiment's results were invalidated due to the material being degraded just a hint beyond the acceptable temperature threshold, and this is an unacceptable waste."
Someone woke up today and thought, "The code needs to be rewritten to use atomic rather than non-atomic loads; the thread calling the primary variable is competing with a thread on a different core."
Someone woke up today and thought, "If we're to have any chance of enacting behavioural change in this patient group, we'll need to examine the collective antecedents of their self-efficacy beliefs."
You woke up today and thought, "I'm gonna be the loudest, fastest fuckin' guy on the way to the jobsite! (/mall/salesroom/etc.) They'll all fuckin' know who the boss is."
You see the difference, right? You're a moron. But that's not even the core problem. The core problem is one of focus: Most of the thoughts above are about solving a problem, making a contribution, being an adult member of society. Your tiny-brained thoughts are mainly about yourself, about getting yourself noticed. They're low-level thoughts. You probably drove past people today in your screaming micropenis-mobile who were thinking thoughts just like those above. You didn't notice them, though — in part because your brain was occupied with whether they were noticing you — but more to the point, because many of them were driving practical, nondescript, quiet cars. But why? Why would they do this? How could they make this mistake? Don't they know they should drive the best, fastest, loudest phuckin' ride they can get their hands on?? They must not be able to afford one, right?! Er, no. It's because they don't source their self-esteem from their vehicle. You didn't notice them because they don't need you to notice them. They're not as weak as you are. And they have adult brains, which allow them to focus on others at least as much as on themselves. Hopefully you'll get there someday. (Alright. At this point if you're a GwMM and you're still pretty sure of yourself, and aren't convinced that you are indeed a low-functioning twat, I beg you, look up the Dunning-Kruger Effect.) Non-GwMMs: Why should the rest of us care, beyond the temporary bouts of noise? Is this a real problem for Hamilton? I think it is. The Y-Combinator venture capitalist and essayist Paul Graham has an interesting piece about the "message" a city sends. For example, New York, by its collective actions and values and signals, 'tells' you that you should be richer; Los Angeles tells you that you should be in better shape; San Francisco tells you that you should be healthier and/or in tech; Cambridge (MA) tells you that you should be smarter. And so on. Part of the impact of these messages is that citizens will naturally tend toward the mean of that message over time — and so a city as a whole continually becomes "more like itself". I've lived in a fair number of cities, in Canada and abroad; some sophisticated, some less so. I had so hoped Hamilton would be "the one". But it can't be, at least not for me. Hamilton's ADBpM (Audible Dbag per Minute rate) is comparably quite high — I'd peg it at somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5, in most areas of the city. In other words, the sound of an obnoxious, low-grade human, usually a GwMM, enters my auditory field roughly twice per minute. At this rate, it becomes a 'constant', something reliable; a perpetual reminder of the type of people I'm surrounded by. And so at least for those attuned to it, Hamilton's tone is largely 'off', at least for the city it claims to want to become. The message it sends, as Paul Graham might put it, through its ADBpM and a few other factors, is to be tougher, louder, more aggressive. The GwMMs embody and reinforce that message. Now, some of you may be proud of that. (Though I'm guessing anyone who's read this far is likely not.) I've noticed a trend here, a collective defense mechanism really, of referring to the city as "gritty", or "down-to-earth", or (my favourite so far) as "keeping it real". None of these are proper synonyms for the aggressive dudebro culture incubated and enabled here. The proper term would be 'dumb', or better, 'underdeveloped'. The feel is of being in a cognitively adolescent place. It's obviously nothing to be proud of. The cities that prize blatant aggression are those in which no developed person wants to live. Fort McMurray and Gary (IN) come to mind — teeming jockstraps of aggression, with predictable results — higher rates of alcohol & drug abuse, domestic violence, and violent crime in general. Any thinking person wants their city to have the opposite of these phenomena. The GwMMs don't, of course, have these effects directly. But they do reinforce the vibe. And if aggression and/or general doucheyness is the (or a) pervasive vibe in Hamilton, this is a giant turn-off for all sorts of people who might otherwise move here and make a contribution. So, intelligent, progressive contributors will leave, or will avoid the city. Not all, but certainly some. Possibly many. And the Troglodytes will stay, because they feel at home, especially as their behaviour goes unchecked. The city may thereby, over time, become more like itself. Of course, Hamilton is in many other ways a wonderful place. But in any "on the cusp" or "on the way up" or "improving" city (do we agree that's what it is?), there is always a sort of invisible balance between civility and rampant douchebaggery that could tip in either direction. And the tipping factors aren't always perfectly obvious. Large, dramatic factors like affordable housing and business grants and infrastructure get most of the attention, as rightly they should. But resolving a mishmash of seemingly small other factors, of which I think the GwMM issue is one, can have a large impact as well. All of this to pose a serious question: As mature, intelligent Hamiltonians (non-GwMMs/DBs), what should we actually do about the problem? Do you think Council's initiative will make a difference? If not, what would you propose? A coordinated social-shaming effort? Vigilante action? Nothing?Something else? ** GwMM HELP SECTION *\* Are you a GwMM enraged or offended by this post? Allow me to assist. To save you time, I've taken the liberty of crafting several predictable answers, and translating them into the dudebro vernacular. Modify or copy & paste directly, as you prefer:
"go back for Toronto you leftweng snoeflake, fuck yor self!"
"did you even look at a Mustang b4 you post this LMAO!!"
"elistist phart, prolly wear a covid mask too"
"I get 468 HP in my ride bro you cant compeet your golf cart sucks ass lol"
Okay, this did go a tad long. TL:DR - When you modify your muffleexhaust to be louder than the original, you reveal to most of us that you're weak, sad, likely mini-penis'd, un- or under-educated, emotionally underdeveloped, lack a personality, and are generally a selfish asshole. Of course, if this is the impression you're going for, by all means, continue. TL;DR, polite version - We really do have a problem with vehicle noise pollution in this city. What should we do about it? TL;DR, honest version - I have a recurring dream wherein I learn that all of the clinically retarded philistines in this city have somehow passed away, all at the same time, each by crashing their [Mustang/Ram1500/InfinitiG35*/CivicTypeetc.] into a separate lamp post. If your catruck/SUV/etc is purposely extra loud, you are a certifiable Grade-A douche, and you should be aware that you are among the lowest-functioning members of society.
\* about which — what a shock to learn that that poor woman and her three daughters were killed in Brampton by a 20-year-old male in a bright blue Infiniti G35 with black rims and blacked-out windows. I know I was shocked. At first I guessed maybe a 60-ish woman in a Corolla. But no — I was way off. Incredibly, young guy in a modified Infiniti G35. (Worthless douche, may he rot in prison with others of his ilk.)
- - - - - Footnotes I'll later regret:
Motorcycles — In my head somehow, the motorcycles are a separate issue, despite often being even louder than the modified cars & trucks. It's an old, embedded culture, with the choppeHarley-type bikes typically being ridden by diabetic old men. That fight is lost. That group is largely beyond change, so it's a waiting game (for a traffic accident or lung cancer or cirrhosis or the elegant cascade of symptoms that comprise metabolic syndrome, or a nursing home; whichever). This, and I suspect many cops are (reasonably?) fearful of pulling these guys over.
The "police crackdown on yahoos" — Another reason I'm less than optimistic about this working is because I suspect a Venn diagram of cops and GwMMs may be narrower than we'd like. Dudebro culture in both camps.
The gender thing... <giant sigh> It appears that a few people in earlier discussions have managed to contort their thinking enough to view this issue through a 'gender-equality' lens, as they no doubt view virtually every issue these days. It's not that this isn't adorable; it most certainly is. But it distracts, and threatens to prevent us from getting to the root of the problem. The 'data' aren't hidden, in this case — just look in the cars, and use your counting skills. This is overwhelmingly a guy thing. These are mostly males (or if you prefer, individuals who would appear to be of the sort that traditionally possess a penis) and are usually on the younger side. As humans we are pattern-spotters; we are hard-wired to spot patterns in our environment, in order to make sense of it, and to reduce cognitive load. We can't help it. So yes, most of us will notice that the loudest, fastest cars are driven by traditional males. If you claim not to have noticed this, I have a polygraph machine here and $10,000 with your name on it, should you hardly move the needle when I ask whether you've noticed it. You've noticed it. And (traditionally-)male insecurity leading to aggression is a well-known, well-studied problem. But, reasonably enough, you may point out that male vs. female isn't really the issue. And I would agree. Masculinity, specifically toxic masculinity, as one of our councillors pointed out, is more to the point. I would agree with that as well. But it so happens that most toxic masculine behaviour is exhibited by those who are traditionally male. Is this really a controversial statement?? Will knowing it (under the decidedly safe assumption that it is true) help with vehicle volume enforcement? No, and nor should it. Let's target the behaviour, not the driver, when the behaviour happens. But might knowing (acknowledging) the heavy male-masculine correlation help in getting to the root causes of the aggressive, asocial behaviour, possibly before that behaviour occurs? I think it might, as it hints at who may require help/treatment/intervention/education/etc. We have neither the time nor the resources to address the problem entirely at random, in the name of political correctness.
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