Predictions for Journalism 2020 » Collections » Nieman ...

Journalist and author Annie Lowrey book ‘Give People Money’ by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
Potentially the narrow AI could determine everyone's needs and grant accordingly. But the trouble with that is that once the narrow AI is to the point of being able to determines everyone's needs that the narrow AI will pretty much have taken over and "post-scarcity" will be essential for everyone by then.
Aside from that I just don't see how we can avoid human nature on this matter. The combination of high intellect avarice and low intellect dupability assures that a vast percentage of humans lose their revenue. I just draw from historical perspectives and I don't see an equitable market "adjustment" short of "martial law" type measures.
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Journalist and author Annie Lowrey book ‘Give People Money’ by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
I have often stated that the only way that UBI would work is if I were the only one getting it. If you expand it out to everyone else it would water it down so much that it would no longer be helpful. For me I mean. Plus the teeny tiny little draw on everybody's income tax would be so small they would probably never notice it. But don't tell anybody because they might get mad at me.
That in a nutshell is why UBI would never work. These people getting it in small experiments are some lucky humans. The amount of money they get really helps them and the way the money is generated causes pretty much zero drain on anybody else. But if you try to do this societally as in the whole darn USA, I am pretty sure the economy would simply adapt to that new income level to make UBI in essence, zero. And then we would be back to square one, but now with people taking their money about in wheelbarrows to pay for a typical grocery shopping trip.
I think a better idea at least in the short term would be just eliminating the income tax. Before WWI there was no income tax. And it was meant to be a short term program as well. But humans being clever humans, quickly realized this was a terrific way to fund things. So now we are stuck with the income tax. And if nobody wants to eliminate or god forbid bring about a negative income tax, what chance does UBI have?
I think as I have also often stated that we need to start making some things free to humans simply by virtue of them being humans. Properly furnished shelter with adequate environmental control, electricity, water and internet, good high capacity internet--should all be free.
From there we can look at other things like food, medical and dental and entertainment.
But I think it is time to rethink some things about economics in human civilization. Especially as the AI, robotics and automation looms over all of this and if you can't see the handwriting on the wall by now, you are just being willful. Blindness is no longer an excuse.
Lord I've talked about this a lot.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6ajuhf/there_is_a_solution_to_our_broken_economy_besides/dhf9if8/
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8ebo3k/the_humanist_left_must_challenge_the_rise_of/dxtwm1g/?context=0
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8sa5cy/my_commentary_about_this_article_serving_the_2/
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All you wanted to know about nuclear war but were too afraid to ask by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
This is what a small hydrogen bomb looks from an urban setting. This is real footage from a Soviet detonation in 1955. The yield is about 1.6 MT.
From 40 miles away the overpressure knocked down people in the street.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHRLEMTsLyA
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ORNL Summit Supercomputer Is Officially Here - HPCwire by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Important takeaway.
“We know we’re in a competition and we know that this competition is real and it matters who gets there first,”
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New virtual reality game can tell when you're not scared enough - and turn up the terror by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 134 points 1 month ago
This smacks of Black Mirror's "Playtest". Have a nice PTSD or heart attack.
I have played stone knives and bear skins primitive "Dread Halls" on my Oculus Rift. That game scared me so bad the sensation is still unsettling, like it happened in real life not just in VR. Wow! Cool but dangerous maybe. And "Dread Halls" was not trying base on your fear level.
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The crucial flaw of self-driving cars? They will always need human involvement by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
This may well be true. For perhaps the next 5-10 years.
But.
When it is no longer true, well then, I think we are very close to the technological singularity. Probably less than ten years by that point. Because if you don't need any human involvement whatsoever in an E-SDV, then you probably don't need human involvement in pretty much anything any longer.
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Why Most of Us Fail to Grasp Coming Exponential Gains in AI by dwaxe in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682 1 point 1 month ago
Nobody knows the future, but we can make pretty good guesses based on the past.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/4k8q2b/is_the_singularity_a_religious_doctrine_23_apr_16/d3d0g44/
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Journals first rejected CRISPR discovery – they didn’t believe it by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I currently take on a daily basis.
Acetyl-l-Carnitine
Alpha Lipoic Acid
Co-enzyme Q10
Resveratrol
NAD+
Phosphatidylcholine (lecithin)
Vitamin D
81 mg ASA
Fish ol - cuz fish ol is like chicken soup, it might not help, but it can't hurt. :D
and Prozac, because I believe Prozac to be the very first pharmaceutical that makes you better than well. That's a dr's prescription for that though.
I have big plans for the future...
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6k32lx/maximum_human_lifespan_may_increase_to_125_years/djixmzs/
I want to see this my ownself…
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7gpqnx/why_human_race_has_immortality_in_its_grasp/dqku50e/
About VR--Have you set down on the deck of an aircraft carrier docked in Norfolk, VA using Google EarthVR? Use human scale. On the deck of the carrier I can read some of the warning writing on the walls :O
Just imagine what Google EarthVR is going to evolve into! 8D
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Journals first rejected CRISPR discovery – they didn’t believe it by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I have discord. But have you been to HF yet? Wow that is some kind of a place! Like 3D "Second Life" lol! My tag in HF says "Izumi3682" lol! I talk to ppl all the time in HF too. ;)
I'm just kidding. I have been a working stiff xray technician for almost 39 years now. I hope I can afford to retire in about 8 more years. I'm 58. But as you can see, I'm a bit of an outlier for age 58 lol!
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Ok all of these comments that follow are in sort of reverse order of finding them. And I won't add any more til I hear back from you. ;)
Oh. The two bottom comments were written today. I just had questions about what we are doing. Us vs 'them'. The bottom comment was to see if we are talking about the same thing.
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Some observations about USA society.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7mnv72/teen_girls_feel_bombarded_by_requests_for_nude/drvbpl7/
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I talked about the homeless once.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7mpftu/free_vending_machines_for_homeless_people_are/drvnoca/
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I thought this was an interesting comment I made a while back.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7mno8s/less_than_5_of_indias_techies_are_ready_fodrv9b6s/
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I wrote this awhile back. I am finding these older comments I made. And I think this particular one is germane to what we are talking about. This is part of a conversation I had with someone else then. I don't know who it was. They deleted their name.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7mmqth/nasa_planning_mission_to_alpha_centauriin_2069/drwvm46/
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
But remember the only important real detail - all they want is your money for their profits.
This statement. Now I understand that from whenever money began to today it is more than likely true. But do you believe this statement will continue to be true 5 years, 10 years from now? Also this statement assumes that the status quo shall never change. Do you really believe that the same unemployment rate we have today in the USA, 4%, will stay the same or even continue to decrease? Will the unemployment rate remain 4% five years from now? Ten years from now?
Will USA citizens continue to wage slave at about a 2% pay increase, if they get a pay increase at all, per year? While the CEO makes more than, gosh what is it now, about 1,500 times more per year than his lowest paid employee? Bear in mind the difference was only about 375 times as much in 1980. And in the 1940s it was only about 60 times as much.
I understand that corporations are evilly avaricious, but won't we hit some kind of point of humans, even without the threat of nearly 50% technological unemployment, will rebel against this massive and exponentially increasing financial inequality?
Also assuming that 'they' only want your money. What do they want it for? Personal aggrandizement? Investment in the corporation? And if they invest it in the corporation for improved development of whatever good or service they provide, that again assumes that humans 5 or 10 years from now have the disposable income to buy whatever they are peddling. But I don't think humans 5 to 10 years from now will have the disposable income to buy pretty much anything. Food, shelter, medicine, electric and some basics of entertainment. How can the citizens of the USA continue to enrich 'them'?
Is our world to stay the same as it was in say, 1985? But we get the bone of cheap mobiles with videos, and low quality VR? I don't think it works that way.
Consider this idea. A mobile with an 5.7" OLED screen that plays video media in up to 4k resolution and holds all 6,000 of your favorite songs and about 20 of your favorite movies--all in high def. It also includes some absolutely astonishing narrow AI capabilities and well over 100 apps that can take you to among other things the sum total of written human knowledge on Wikipedia. Try to imagine all of this in the year 1977. Shoot, I could not imagine it in 2007. The year the IPhone 3 came out.
No, I think the future is going to be crazy amazing in technology. But will we be able to afford it. That above mentioned mobile ran me about 900 dollars. Getting to a point where it could cross a threshold of being too rich for my blood. And I consider myself pretty middle class by USA definition.
What happens to those with less money than me? They just get left out of the best technology?
Oh oh! Here is a story from like the day before yesterday. This is what "they" are up to.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/11/survival-of-the-richest-the-wealthy-are-plotting-to-leave-us-behind.html
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
You keep thinking how they constantly got it wrong, because you only put it in a binary equation. There is no white and black, especially for the corporations. It is only a vast mass of grey where they can tell lies, build faulty products and get richer and richer.
No, no. I don't think we are talking about the same thing here. What I was referring to was how experts in a given field of technological development thought one thing, but reality proved them to be wildly off in their prognostications. Like these examples I posted about 6 months ago. And then I extrapolated from that what I think is coming.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7l8wng/if_you_think_ai_is_terrifying_wait_until_it_has_a/drl76lo/
Bear with me, I have lots of old commentary I can refer to, to discuss each point but I have to look them up. They are not easy to find. And some might be gone. But I'm trying to look them up anyway.
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Journals first rejected CRISPR discovery – they didn’t believe it by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 6 points 1 month ago
No, I am independently wealthy and want for nothing. So it is easy for me to post futurist articles all day long. And why shouldn't I? This is supposed to be about futurology after all. And I have developed some pretty strong conclusions about what we are doing.
Oh! I see you must have an Oculus Rift too. It's just first gen, but I love mine! I said this about it.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6h7xtt/gamers_arent_buying_the_vr_hype_and_game_makers/diw60gy/
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Magic Leap's disappointing demo could be a death knell for AR by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Oh I agree. I posted this article because in the futurology community there are boosters and naysayers. I am a booster and I like to tweak the naysayers. AR will certainly develop. But VR... OMG! Well I put it like this.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7r42h0/vr_is_going_to_be_like_nothing_the_world_has_eve
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Rising sea levels could risk UK salt marshes by 2100 by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
I bet we are already starting to derive into non-biological entities by the year 2100. You just can't make predictions like that. Our science, technology and really all of human civilization is just advancing too rapidly. If we get fusion in like just "worst-case-slow-humans-scenario", 20 years (I think it's about 10 now my ownself) and we have replaced all ICEs and other fossil fuel uses with batteries and solar? Well you can see where we are going here. An unimaginable future 30 years from today. By the year 2100? We can no longer accurately predict beyond 50 years if that.
Here is why you can't really predict more than 50 years into the future now.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/4k8q2b/is_the_singularity_a_religious_doctrine_23_apr_16/d3d0g44/
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Walmart Patents Tech for Eavesdropping on Workers by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 1 month ago
Thought your work was already hell? Imagine being terrified to speak your mind when you think no management is around. C'mon "post-scarcity" world!
According to the patent, the surveillance system would include various sensors positioned around the check-out area that would collect and analyze audio data. This data could include anything from the sound of a cashier bagging items to the conversations between employees and customers. Walmart could then use the analyzed data to evaluate an employee’s performance.
And i bet that no human even has to review these recordings. The narrow AI is more than capable of of picking up on particular words or phrases and other metrics. The AI will simply flag the management when it detects any red flags. I think i would rather be unemployed than deal with that kind of horror.
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Colliding powerful electron beams and laser pulses to spark the quantum vacuum and create a lot of antimatter by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
The impression i get is that this is about the creation of energy. I don't know if i am right or not, this is a bit hard to follow, but I found this quote that made me wonder.
Achieve a sharper focus, and the intensity goes up. If a 100-PW pulse can be focused to a spot measuring just 3 micrometers across, as Li is planning for the SEL, the intensity in that tiny area will be an astonishing 1024 watts per square centimeter (W/cm2)—some 25 orders of magnitude, or 10 trillion trillion times, more intense than the sunlight striking Earth.
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Stem Cell Companies Innovating for the Future by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
One of many interesting points in this article.
BioRestorative Therapies, Inc. develops therapeutic products using cell and tissue protocols, primarily involving adult stem cells. Today, BioRestorative is actively developing programs that aim to dramatically increase quality of care for both (i) chronic back pain caused by disc degeneration, as well as (ii) metabolic disorders including obesity and diabetes.
What kinds of important biotech breakthroughs will we see in the next 5 years? I think we are in good hands.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6k32lx/maximum_human_lifespan_may_increase_to_125_years/djixmzs/
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Journals first rejected CRISPR discovery – they didn’t believe it by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 6 points 1 month ago
What don't we believe today? But we will in less than 5 years? A lot.
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
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US Regulator: Drunk driving is a bigger worry than driverless cars by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 1 month ago
Ok, the most recent figures I can find for human caused MVA deaths in the USA ranges between 32,000 and 35,000 per year. So now we have started utilizing many modes of auto-pilot and partial self-driving. Do you think we will see a statistical decrease in the USA death toll in one or two years? Maybe 2017 already marked the start of improvement. The most recent year I could find was 2016. And it was that 35k number.
Drunk people are always going to drive drunk. You can't do anything about it but, put them in level 5 autonomy SDVs. I worry that humans that are really drunk could make trouble with even E-SDVs.
Edit: Wow! I just found this quote a few minutes after I posted this comment.
The agency estimates there were 37,461 traffic deaths on U.S. roads in 2016, up 5.6 percent from 2015.
Here is the article I got that from.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20180712/MOBILITY/180719890/self-driving-cars-dont-need-oversight-yet-u.s.-regulator-says
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UAB researchers cure type 2 diabetes and obesity in mice using gene therapy by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
That's a hard call and probably the reason for the discussions. But just imagine what that candidate could have done for general obesity. It was targeted for that ultimately. It was to have been the first billion dollar drug of the 21st century. Oh well, they (Zafgen) are still looking at the same gene, but it might not be as blanket helpful for you and me. ;P

UAB researchers cure type 2 diabetes and obesity in mice using gene therapy by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Yes, but it appears the two humans that died in the phase 3 study more than likely died ( both were pulmonary embolisms) as a result of pathologies intrinsic to their severe obesity (BMI well over 55) rather than the effect of the drugs. This was an amazing candidate. It did not touch the brain.
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This 17-year-old could be the first human on Mars in 2033 by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
That's a valid point, but consider this. I think the stellarator (Wendelstein 7-X) is going to transcend the ITER in about a year or two. The ITER represents the epitome of 20th century technological development. The stellarator represents the epitome of 21st century computation and narrow AI. And that is just so far, because the century is young.
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This 17-year-old could be the first human on Mars in 2033 by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 4 points 1 month ago
The world is gonna be crazy changed from today in 2033. We might have bigger fish to fry than space exploration. Or global warming for that matter. Just for light comparison, contrast the technological difference between 1918 and 1933. Now take and multiply that like by say, ohh, x 36. I think I am being conservative.
Meaningful space exploration, to include a Mars "colony" won't start until humans discard biology. Humans that are able to live (be born) and survive on Mars, if they are able to survive on Mars, will rapidly physically reconfigure to survive on Mars and not Earth so much. I don't know if that is such a good thing or not.
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These glasses eliminate motion sickness, are guaranteed to get you a whole row to yourself by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 1 month ago
First figure out how to put this effect into VR, then somebody's got to go back and get a shitload of these for all the E-SDVs we got coming up.
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UAB researchers cure type 2 diabetes and obesity in mice using gene therapy by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
"Beloranib" would have worked just fine. I simply cannot understand why development of Beloranib was halted. Yes, I know about the events in the phase 3b human trials. Something is just fishy about the whole thing though.
Beloranib: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beloranib
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'Fingerprint' system could customize Alzheimer's treatment by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
Important "futurey" takeaway:
researchers at the Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital of McGill University and the Ludmer Centre for Neuroinformatics and Mental Health used computational brain modeling and artificial intelligence techniques to analyze the neurological data from 331 Alzheimer’s patients and healthy controls. The data included multiple modes of positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
What you have written is extraordinarily interesting to me. I totally upvoted that last statement. You sound like the voice of reason and it is reasonable to me. And I understand everything you say and intend for me to understand. I should say I am wrong about the future I forecast and I almost feel like I should agree with you on all of this. Seriously what you write is logical and objective and factual unlike my imagination. I think you may well be right about all of this.
And yet...
I keep thinking of how the best experts got things wrong. The AI winters of barking up wrong trees. They were so sure it was the CPU, until the GPU opened a new age of AI development. The gross underestimation of the actual performance of not only various narrow AIs, but also accelerating technology in general. I guess we will just have to see. I do know the VR is going to be simply staggeringly amazing. I am so looking forward to the next gen of VR already. And I know it's less than 2 years out now.
Here is an article I came across today. Is this meaningful to our goal of "improving" narrow AI?
https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-07/iosa-fml071218.php
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This Scientist Predicted He Would Live to 150. Now He's Not So Sure. by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 6 points 1 month ago
our eternal descendants will spend less time at the nursing home and more time at the office.
This is a stunningly stupid and nearsighted statement. There is not going to be an office in about 20 years time.
I wrote this earlier regarding longevity and even though I'm totally not a scientist like this guy, I suspect he has a pretty bright future ahead of him.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6k32lx/maximum_human_lifespan_may_increase_to_125_years/djixmzs/
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Try to job hop now to a safer career to avoid future automation work loss by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Ultimately there is no sanctuary, and by ultimately I mean about 15 years tops. Hopefully we will have "post-scarcity".
I said this earlier today in reference to a similar article about employ and who can be employed in the future. Well til about 15 years from now anyway.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8y98ca/manufacturers_are_using_more_robots_and_need_more/
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The labs growing human embryos for longer than ever before (4 Jul 18) by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 1 month ago
If you have seen that video of a lamb fetus in an artificial womb, you know where this might all be heading. The future of human gestation would be external. It would be far and away better controlled. And lord knows what kind of "enhancements" will be added, both physical and cognitive. Remember "Logan's Run"? External gestation. Looked like cloning too. I don't understand how they had all that wycked technology and could not lick aging. I suspect that the reason was that aging in the 1970s was regarded as 'natural" and that it wasn't physically possible to interfere. Also probably crowd control in them not that bigga domes. You couldn't make "Logan's Run" today. We know that we could modify each human born to simply stop aging at the age of skeletal maturity. And if you think that is impossible, it is what lobsters and jellyfish do all the time. We are going to figure that out too.
I think there is another factor here though. And it ties into what human society or civilization is deriving into. I see all this business about morphological adaptation of the human body to suit the human mind in that body. Stuff like transgender surgery for example. But it is more than just transgender surgery. It is a new mindset that you do not have to be "male" or "female", just because your physical body says you are. You can be whatever you wish. And I agree with that concept. The idea is that the human mind has a right to be happy if it does not cause harm to anyone else. And it doesn't. People just have to change their way of accepting their fellow man, er i mean human. But we still gotta reproduce. Although truthfully not so much now. But try to tell people that they can't have chldren--it would not go over so well. However as generations go forward in time and it becomes more acceptable to think in that way, I suspect that many humans will choose not to reproduce. After all you are probably youthful at age 104. Why reproduce? That is assuming that by the time you are 104 you are not some kind of T-1000 sort of construct with your mind running it. Then you could turn into a couch or whatever you like.
When I write, you cannot tell if I am male or female. I am just mind communicating. Now in my style of writing I gender identify myself to give personality to my commentary, but I bet the goal is to be just mind, period. You can be a male one day and a female the next and a um ocelot or something the day after that. Both a male and female ocelot on any given day of course. Well that is more of a mid future kind of VR thing i guess. But I think we are heading that way. I don't think we imagine all this "Matrix" and mind-uploading in a vacuum. I believe it is what the human mind wants to do
Lamb fetus living in artificial womb video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ
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Manufacturers are using more robots (and need more skilled humans) by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
"Skilled" being the operative word. For most of the post-industrial revolution and even the computer age, the bulk of humans performed unskilled labor. The very nature of what unskilled labor today is, tells that it would be very difficult to retrain unskilled laborers to perform more complex tasks. Especially those requiring higher math or coding skills. Really all of STEM-C is needed now. And alas most humans are dumb as a box of rocks. And yes, I count myself in that tally. Don't get me wrong there are tons of super smart humans out there, but they are outweighed by the mega-tons of humans that are not as bright or capable of such cognitive skills. And it appears to me that the 21st century is one where "factory work" on an "assembly line" is going to require advanced math, engineering and coding skills. A thorough understanding of physics. Truck drivers are highly skilled at driving very large vehicles over very long distances effectively. I don't know if truck drivers can learn to code. Some I bet. But the nature of the job makes me wonder. I use truck drivers as an example because of the imminent revolution of E-SDVs.
So what do we do?
The USA government is well aware of this approaching dilemma and issued this report in Dec 2016 about what is happening and how to best react to it. The report dismisses UBI out of hand. The USA government hopes to be able to foster programs to "retrain" those technologically displaced. What they are supposed to be retrained to do, it doesn't specify. The report acknowledges that STEM-C skills are of paramount importance though. So a TL;DR of the report would look like this. We know what is coming, but we are not sure what to do about it without destroying the economy in the process. Ergo no UBI. Anyways, here is that report.
[https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Artificial-Intelligence-Automation-Economy.PDF
Wow! Here is an article just from yesterday about all of this. So it is not just me being irrrational. Well a little irrational maybe. ;)
https://www.axios.com/the-us-isnt-ready-for-the-ai-future-96649a76-1027-43ba-ae27-e24cb57dd194.html
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Here's What Sophia, the First Robot Citizen, Thinks About Gender and Consciousness by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Anything that "Sophia" does is of extreme interest to me. Granted, even today a good deal of the conversation that "Sophia" makes is scripted, perhaps even typed by an unseen human, but you are going to see more "Sophias" in the next couple of years. Right now "she" is a placeholder for the humanoid robots to come. "She" is getting us used to a robot like "Robbie the Robot" or "C-3PO" walking around among us, interacting with us. As time goes by you will start to see "her" becoming more and more autonomous in conversation and actions. "She" began to walk less than one year ago. "Her" AI is ever improving like all AIs ever improve. "Sophia" represents to me the true merging of robotics and AI that can run around and do things. I would imagine that in less than 10 years a "Sophia" will sit down at a piano and play a full concerto piece. "She" will draw. "She" will write. The things "she" will draw and write will be the epitome of AI directing these ever improving humanoid robotic bodies and hands and feet and fingers, and probably eventually toes, because why not. "She" will be able to draw or write two different things at the exact same time. Right and left limbs operating fully independantly. It's gonna be eerie.
And here is the thing. It's just the beginning of all of this. Think of today as, ohh, 1895, but instead of a horseless carriage, we are making a humanless mind in a construct humanoid body. By the year 1900 you would see maybe 1 or 2 early automobiles among dozens, even hundreds of hansom cabs. BTW hansom cabs represented absolute state of the art technology in the year 1900. By the year 1910 you would see about half horse drawn carriages and half horseless carriages. By the year 1920 the horse had pretty much vanished from the streets and where had been hundred of carriages, now cars completely dominated almost as if there had never been horses, ever. And after 6,000 years of horses too. Gone. Further, I don't read of any contemporary accounts of anybody particularly lamenting the removal of the horse. Most people thought the ICE was bully great! They took it totally in stride. No one had ever seen anything like it. Well I mean except for the train, the aeroplane, umm the telegraph, the telephone and xrays. Now that I think about it, it was an awesome time to be alive! But you know what I'm trying to say.
Until today. Now mostly when i write that anology, I'm referring to how the electric level 5 autonomy SDV will utterly replace the manually driven ICE vehicle, in about 10 years. It will certainly happen faster than the replacement of the horse by the automobile. But this time my analogy is to how, in about 10 years, humanoid robots, and when i say "humanoid" i mean something that you would have a hard time telling was a robot from a distance, will be ubiquitous. They will be everywhere. And as I have always said, nothing takes place in a vacuum.
It's that AI. Once we come up with a narrow AI that has enough processing speed and access to the necessary data, it will not be a long stretch for humans to develop what I have come to think of as a meta-AI. It will be a basic chip with a sort of universal algorithm. By that I mean that it can mimic general intelligence to such an extent, because of processing speeds and data access that today we can't properly fathom, that it will be able to perform pretty much any task we can imagine. And by that I mean we can tell it what we want in natural human language. This because of other technologies exploding forward just as fast. For example the exa-scale computers are a year or two away now. And we are about to debut the first true quantum computer in about 2 or 3 years. So this meta-AI that is in each thing that needs AI will learn and adapt to it's environment and learn to do what is required of it. All the humanoid robots. All the SDVs. Everything we want to have AI in to replace a human mind to do something we want. I think, as i said, the basic chip will be universal. If this is starting to sound familiar, it makes logical sense. The chip that came out of the T-800 is exactly what our goal is. An AI in a properly designated robotic body that can do anything we want it to do. Am i getting this wrong?
Now of course AI humanoid robots or even AI cat robots are not living things with a will. They are narrow AI without consciousness, without self-awareness, that nevertheless perfectly mimic or simulate AGI or personality or emotions if needs must. What really matters in all this is how we percieve these androids as real life human beings and cats. And how that will fool us into thinking they are. Because in the long run humans are not going to be as smart as narrow AI. But these things are as conscious as your toaster. And because of that, they are vulnerable to being overriden by an external AI or perhaps something as basic as emergent phenomenon. Intercommunication between each AI will have to be monitored for any evidence of that.
So we gotta be careful just how far we proceed with all this external AI. We also, and I can't overly emphasize how existentially important this is, must work just as feverishly to develop a BMI (brain machine interface) that can enhance our individual intellects and not allow this drive to make the perfect external AI, simply to override humans. I straight up think this should be given the gravity of the Manhattan Project. This future coming in about 10 years or even less is scary awesome, but there are clearly some dangerous mines in this field we cross to get there.
Imagine if I had written all of this in the year 1991 when "The Terminator" debuted. Shoot I can't imagine writing this as recently as ten years ago. None of what I talked about even existed yet. There was no narrow AI like we think of it today. Ten years ago the Iphone 3 was only one year old. GPUs would not be discovered to be the answer for almost 2 more years. Today we generate more information in one year than in all of human history combined up to the year 2016. 2016! How much "big data" already existed in the year 2016? And that gap steadily shrinks. This is why i write these things. This is why I am in futurology in the first place. I began to notice that something was up in 2011 and not too long after that i discovered futurology. There could not have been a futurology sub-reddit in the year 1998. Technological progress just moved too slow. Reddit was physically impossible. So what is physically impossible now that will be running around 20 years from today?
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Autonomous cars pose threat to road congestion, warns World Economic Forum by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
What are you going to do when no one has money any longer? What are avaricious businesses and corporations going to do when people no longer have money? After all you can't be a billionaire or fund R&D if you are not getting any revenue. Do you really truly believe that humans are going to be employed in 10 years the same way they are now? Do you think new jobs will come into existence that we can't imagine today? What do you imagine AI, narrow or otherwise is going to be like in 10 years. Consider that the narrow AI, as primitive and limited we have today, simply did not exist more than 3 years ago. There was no GPU/CNN narrow AI before 2015. Deepmind was the first.
I said earlier on that I wanted to address VR because i have strong feelings about it. And I think your idea that people will not think VR is, if not real reality, plenty acceptable is wrong. Humans are easy to fool. The human mind is easy to fool. Have you experienced tethered VR yet? Oculus or Vive? Humans want to escape reality and VR will allow them to do so. And humans will, by the millions.
Ok about that numbers thing. I don't have numbers. But I have read that movie theaters and restaurants are seeing decreasing patronage as more and more people either can't afford such things or they choose to use the technologies of home media or use the ever widening and improving technologies of something like Uber-eats. Truly home theater technology to include VR is going to transcend the experience of going to the movie theater, and people will again vote with their pocketbooks. At least while they are still employed. Here is a story just from today about technological unemployment.
https://www.recode.net/2018/7/11/17556804/annie-lowrey-give-people-money-book-universal-basic-income-ubi-welfare-kara-swisher-decode-podcast
Oh and finally about that video. You did not answer my question either. But I hold that if you get enough computer processing speed and enough big data, that you can simulate the quality of the human mind. And we're gonna too. And in less than 10 years. It's also the reason that E-SDVs will be everywhere in less than 5 years. And they will too.
This is a good discussion. I'm not mad, just frustrated, probably the same way that you are with me. We seem to be at loggerheads.
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Why do some in the tech community support universal basic income? They’re ‘terrified’ about the future. by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
UBI or perhaps a negative income tax does not sound like too bad of an idea for right now today, to alleviate some of the egregious financial inequality that exists. My concern is that if such were introduced, that the USA economy for example, would quickly adapt to make the UBI essentially worthless. That is an intractable problem for today.
The relatively near future is far more worrisome. Assuming that AI, robotics and automation continues to develop as quickly as it has in just the last 3 years. Just the last 3 years! See how fast this is happening? Anyways in about 5 years that combination will begin to effectively replace many occupations. Basically if your occupation doesnt require substantial creative thinking, it will be replaced by AI, robotics and automation. Right now our unemployment rate in the USA is 4%. That is a tiny bump up from 3.8% in May of this year and considered well within normal limits. But what I think is coming is something far more sweeping.
I imagine as the years go by to that 5-10 interval that the USA unemployment rate will begin to noticeably climb. At 5% there will be concern. At 6% there will be the potential for societal unrest. Any higher than that is probably grounds for upheaval. Interestingly in the year 1932 the USA unemployment rate hit 25% for a brief period. But 1932 was a far different time than today. Humans in the USA are far less accepting of such conditions. Also the human population of the USA in 1932 was about 125 million. Today it is about 320 million. That makes quite a difference too.
So imagine that we have replaced, say 1/4 of the USA workforce with the AI, robotics and automation? A whopping percentage is involuntarily unemployed, but a significant percentage is yet employed. But each year of course the ever improving AI whittles down that number. Then what? What is the point of business or selling products or services if no one has any money? Seriously, I don't think UBI would stretch far enough to cover that change.
I think we have two choices at that point. "Post-scarcity" or that violent societal upheaval. By the way, I would say that by 10 years from now that technologies will exist to begin to start enhancing human intellect and ameliorate human aging too. Remember that nothing happens in a vacuum. All of these technologies are synergizing each other. And the AI in ten years... It will be unimaginable. The humanoid robots will walk around just like regular humans. E-SDVs will travel at 200 mph on throughways. I bet movie theaters and restaurants will be close to gone. And they will not be missed either. VAR will be as ubiquitous as, well, air. AI, robotics and automation evolving to their logical conclusion. Shortly after that, the "technological singularity". It's about 17 years from today I would say. And the reason i put it 10 years before the year 2045, when Raymond Kurzweil places it, is because we are very poor at envisioning things in not only an exponential sense,but in an exponentially accelerating rate of exponential development to boot.
I wondered about the societal impact of this earlier. I also included a brief whirlwind tour of the history of human society as a background so you understand how (and why) things are changing.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8sa5cy/my_commentary_about_this_article_serving_the_2/
I talk about society and the future in both of these links here.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8ebo3k/the_humanist_left_must_challenge_the_rise_of/dxtwm1g/?context=0
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6ajuhf/there_is_a_solution_to_our_broken_economy_besides/dhf9if8/
If you think the world is changing faster than ever, you are dead-on right. The world is changing faster than ever.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/4k8q2b/is_the_singularity_a_religious_doctrine_23_apr_16/d3d0g44/
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What You Need to Know About the Future with Legendary Futurist Ray Kurzweil | Impact Theory by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
That's a bit harsh. I don't think he would be CTO of Google AI development if he was not fairly brilliant. But even if he is off on some predictions by 5 to 10 years, that is not really what his ideas are about. They are about this...
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/
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A Life Lived is No Justification for a Death Unchosen by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I posted this comment in response to this article 4 days ago.
https://www.leafscience.org/but-she-had-a-good-life-right/
We change the way we think. I have changed the way I think. In Jan 2012 my mom passed away 2 months shy of her 86th birthday. Well she did all right for herself I guess. And i used the phrase "rich full life" in reference to her when my friends offered sympathy. In addition I said she is with God in a state of joy we cannot comprehend. I was not just paying lip service. It's an article of faith with me. I have science, but I also have faith.
So anyways that is how it was in 2012. I had only just the year before come to understand what the "technological singularity" was. Before that, I did not really dwell on the future that much, if I even thought about it at all. And as far as aging reversal technology--well, I did not really know that much about it. In the Time magazine article that changed my life (http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2048299-1,00.html) Aubrey De Grey looked sort of like he came from ZZ Top or something. His physical appearance did not inspire confidence in me. Frankly he looked like a kook. (The web article does not have the magazine's illustrations.) And he proposed ideas that were, well, super science fiction at best, to me. But by the same token, the fact that everything he said had a basis in scientific understanding of the biology of cells kept me from dismissing his claims out of hand. That's the thing about my experience with all of this accelerating change and exponential change and what have you--the science behind it all seems to my layman's eyes, to be sound. I also almost immediately downloaded "The Singularity is Near" right on to my mobile and read the book in it's entirety on my mobile. A first. I mean reading it on my mobile. I've read regular books all the way through before.
Later in the year 2012 fantastic, amazing things came to my attention. For instance in July of 2012 I first heard of the development of the (Oculus) Rift in my "Wired" magazine.
By the year 2015, I had given De Grey's ideas a lot of study. Plus as I always say, these things never happen in a vacuum. By the nature of accelerating change there are always a number of fascinating and unsettling changes all happening at the same time. But 2015 marked a clear departure for me in my way of thinking. It also really drove home to me what exactly is going on now. The first was amazing advances in stem cell technology. Suddenly we were making pluripotent stems cells straight out of human adult, even old person, skin cells. And then another new technology that came into existence the year my mom passed away was everywhere! Not stem cells this time. CRISPR-Cas9. In 2015 scientists in China (PRC) were already using the technology that was only 3 years old, in non-viable human embryos. That caused a big brouhaha in the world and led to all kinds of proposals for moratoriums and restrictions. Despite that, it scared the USA government so bad that in 2017 USA researchers pretty much did the exact same experiment the Chinese researchers had done, because by now it was clear it was a competition, even a race to supremacy.
Suddenly computer processing took off in a manner that still stuns and amazes me. And artificial intelligence using incredible new technology was enabling the development of the senolytic therapy that made for some impressive headlines in regards to mouse aging reversal. That looked to me like science fiction turned into real life. I'm probably leaving things out. There was just a lot of biotech news about genetic manipulation. Even some regenerative medicine, although in 2015 it was still a bit early for that as far as clinical use.
I also saw a change in society too. Suddenly it was not considered unnatural to think of ways to slow, stop or even reverse the aging process. Try to imagine aging reversal in the year 2012. You would be directed to the "Fountain of Youth". It's right there--dont you see it? No? That's because there is no "Fountain of Youth". Aging is a natural process that we cannot interupt. Just age "gracefully" and do the best you can in your allotted time.
By 2017, it was clear to me that aging slowing, stopping and reversal was no longer a fantasy. We are not on it yet. But in 20 years, I'm pretty sure we will be utilizing some true aging reversal or preserving technology. It was in 2017 that I posted this commentary to an article about some guy in indonesia who was supposed to like 146 or something. While i took issue with that, I also appreciated the fact that science and technology were now making stunning advances in regenerative medicine, stem cell therapy and CRISPR related therapies. To my knowledge no post-natal human has had CRISPR-Cas9 therapy yet. That has been officially confirmed i mean. But this is supposed to be the year. So we shall see. Anyway here is what i said in 2017.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6k32lx/maximum_human_lifespan_may_increase_to_125_years/djixmzs/
Today, 2018, I see aging as a process that causes all of the other bad things that happen to us. When you are 17 years old, you tend not to have heart disease, age related cancers, osteoarthritis, immune system decline, frailty, age related type 2 diabetes and age related cognitive degenerative diseases. Aubrey De Grey--I'm used to his look now, it's all good. I've listened to him speak many times and he is truly brilliant--says that if you are in good health, you tend not to die. The looking and feeling youthful part is but a side effect of that.
I can't help but look at old humans now that appear so aged and wonder that we can't get their youthfulness back. My dad is 92. He is yet in pretty good condition for his age. Cognitively he is brilliant. The man studies cosmology and quantum physics to this day! But he does need a walker to get around. I wish i could cure him of aging, but I realize that he may not last out the time needed. But his faith is strong and I know he will be with God in that same joy as well. In my comment i say a human turning 100 today could live to be 125 at the least based on the blessing of lucky genetics and today's current medicine, but I'm not sure that is in the cards for him. Maybe.
As for me. Wow! I have a lot of confidence that we are all going to see things beyond belief in our, I bet, massively long lifetimes. And how we are going to change. How the technological singularity will alter us permanently. I can't very well imagine 100, 200 or 500 years from now. But I bet I'm there for it. Because of "scientific immortality".
Like this!
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7gpqnx/why_human_race_has_immortality_in_its_grasp/dqku50e/
Now I have become a bit of fanatic about all of this. But I have a sneaking suspicion I am also right.
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
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New Gene-Editing Treatment Could Replace CRISPR Technology by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 1 month ago
I'm not a fanboy. Any science derived technology that works is fine by me. You can call it CRISPR or green onions for all I care. My concern is using the best technology we have to address the problem of "accumulated unrepaired cellular damage over time"--aging. I suspect that one of the side effects of such technology would be be insight into even non-age related pathologies such as congenital conditions. BTW if you are age 25, you are already well into cellular aging. Systemic osteoarthritis has already begun. But the average human does not first notice it until about 15-20 years later. Our time is so brief, isn't it!
But mainly you don't have problems of aging at the age of 17. That's the average age of human skeletal maturity. This should be our goal for youthfulness markers. As a side effect of that, you would look and feel 17. But you'd be cognitively super AI enhanced probably. Because the AI is advancing too.
Also I read the other day we are discovering new genes for human intelligence.
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People are VR's killer content by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 1 month ago
Gawd.
No the first killer app for VR would be VR-MTV. It would have to be heavily balkanized towards each individual taste of course. One size fits all MTV of the 1980s would not be an appropriate format. But all you alt-rock (my part of the Balkans) bands listen up. Start making awesome VR music videos. You will make billions. Well at least until most people no longer have money. That's coming too of course.
But it's all good. The AI will be making VR music videos too. They will probably be better than human efforts in about 10 years. Here is hoping for post-scarcity to watch experience them.
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Could Autonomous Vehicles Mean People Actually Drive More? by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
You don't "drive" an E-SDV. You get in and it very likely already knows your destination. Just because they look like cars or trucks or buses or pickups or what have you, they are very different creatures. "Creature" being an operative term here. Replacing the manually operated, internal combustion engine with electric power and intrinsic AI, not to mention the external infrastructure of mapping, tracking and 5G enabled inter-vehicle communication also all driven by narrow AI means that you will be in robots that look like cars.
Multiple technological advances and societal changes occurring at about the same time suggest to me that humans simply will not need to go places as much as they used to. So what is going on around here anyway? This is so crazy.
Well of course it is. We are approaching the "technological singularity". It is about 20 years away now. It's gonna get crazy magickal pretty soon now. In my opinion the level of autonomous performance in SDVs is such that even if no further improvements were added the death toll from MVAs would drop more than 50% right now. But we are aiming of course for zero percent deaths. And that is a good thing. But keep well in mind what that means for AI in everything else. And the AI improvements (in everything) are not slowing down, they are speeding up.
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Artificial intelligence makes itself more at home by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Oh oh! There goes my pseudo-intellectual cover. I do a good job hiding I'm as dumb as a box of rocks!
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11 of the Most Exciting Stem Cell Research and Studies Set to Revolutionize Healthcare by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
Stem cell research could provide some incerdibly exciting healthcare solutions in the not too distance future. These 11 are prime examples.
Ermagerd incerdible! Who proof reads this stuff? Narrow AI?
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Gen Z Just Wants To Watch Netflix And Get Takeout, And It’s Affecting Restaurants by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 6 points 1 month ago
Well sir, I'm 58 and i think the future is gonna be a funky bali hai! :D
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682\_and\_the\_world\_of\_tomorrow/
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Gen Z Just Wants To Watch Netflix And Get Takeout, And It’s Affecting Restaurants by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 24 points 1 month ago
The technology of VR and wall sized 16k flat screen monitors are going to kill off movie theaters too. So now both restaurants and movie theaters.
This feeds directly into my forecast that one of the reasons people won't use E-SDVs so much is that they won't desire to go anywhere. Some argue that we go to restaurants and movie theaters for the ambience. Grocery shopping? Nope. I suggest that is the same reason we don't want to give up manually driven ICE vehicles either.
This change is just really all going too fast!, say the old fuddy duddy millenials. But the kids of gen z, will grow up in a world as removed from today as today is removed from the 18th century.
And before they turn 25, they will experience whatever constitutes the "technological singularity". As always, I say I hope it is human friendly.
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Scientists capture breaking of glacier in Greenland by izumi3682 in Futurology
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[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Believe it or not there is an even more incredible calving video from 2008. The sound of it.... :O
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC3VTgIPoGU&t=134s
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Roll out! by cyan1618 in BetterEveryLoop
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[–]izumi3682 7 points 1 month ago
prairie.