A Short Story that Describes Imaginary Events and People of Worldwide Calamities and the Aftermath (the 2nd Edition)
The following story, all names, characters, and incidents portrayed in this post are fictitious. No identification with actual persons (living or deceased), places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred. However, the LINKS to real-life events and inspiring sources are placed here and there throughout the story. -------- Truth is the Only Light -------- INTRO ☞ [As of 2019] there are plenty of reasons to think the Chinese system will implode spectacularly without Japanese feeling the need to do a thing. — Peter Zaihan, Disunited Nations (Mar 03, 2020) It's apparent that two nations have been engaged in a high-stakes military & economy arms race. The current US admin has been hitting China with waves of tariffs, but that was merely a small part of what's actually going on. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] On Oct 11, 2019, when they reached a tentative agreement for the first phase of a trade deal, the fact that China made the concession actually made my jaw drop. From where I sit, it was a worrisome scene. Aren't people saying, when challenging situations are bottled up, they will just grow and mutate into another terrible complications? Admittedly I was not certain how they are going to adhere to the agreement: It left most of the US tariffs (on China's exports) in place, and at the same time, came with an additional USD $200 Billion burden for China over the next two years. This agreement might seem a bit insignificant, but now China would need to purchase almost twice the size of the US products & services they did before the trade war began. With their current economic climate? I murmured, "No way." While watching Trump brag and boast around with said agreement, I expected China would soon come out and fling some improvised excuses in order to delay the document-signing process. It wouldn't be their first time. More importantly, even if China does so, there wouldn't be many (real) counterattack options left for the Trump admin during this year, the US presidential election year. Then, on Jan 16, 2020, the world’s two largest economies actually signed a partial trade agreement aimed at putting the brakes on an 18-month trade war. China would almost surely not sit down but come back to bite, I thought. Enter the worldwide chaos following so called the COVID-19 outbreak. -------- BACKGROUND ☞ Globalists have been heavily investing in China's economy and its components overseas. • Here are a couple of well known names: the Great Old One; George Soros; Koos Bekker; and Bill Gates. • For the sake of convenience, from here on, let's call these globalists, who are foreign investors in China's top tier state-owned/sponsored/controlled enterprises, Team-Z. • Team-Z has adopted big time lackeys like Henry Kissinger or small time ones like Larry Summers, Stephen Hadley, or Bill Browder as matchmakers to court Team-Z for China's top tier enterprises. When Israel's highest echelons chimed in, it has been through Israeli IT companies and the BRI projects. • Naturally, multinational investment banks have also been employed; such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), UBS Group AG (formerly Union Bank of Switzerland), Blackstone Group, Canaccord Genuity, BlackRock, Hermitage, or Mirae Asset. ☞ Note: The Great Old One didn't use any matchmakers, something peasants would need. Because the Great Old One's power level is over 9000. • China's Shanghai clique used to keep the nation's state-sponsored enterprises under their firm grip: Enterprises such as Alibaba Group, Tencent, Baidu, Wanda Group, HNA Group, Anbang Group, Evergrande Group, CEFC Energy and Huawei, all of which Team-Z has massively invested in. • Here is how Shanghai clique and Team-Z, esp. Bill Gates, started to get together:[LINK] • However, in the name of anti-corruption campaign, Xi Jinping & his Princelings have been taking those businesses away from Shanghai clique's hand, and transforming those state-sponsored private enterprises into the state-owned enterprises, declaring the 國進民退 movement. • Slaying Shanghai clique's control = [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] • 國進民退 + Slaying Shanghai clique's control = [A] [B] [C] • Xi's reign didn't arrive today without challenges though: the BRI projects' poor outcome has frustrated Israel's great expectations. And since the US-China trade war has started, the problems of China's economic systems started to surface, not to mention China's economy has long been decaying. • Coupled with the US-China trade war, the current US admin has been trying to block Huawei from accessing the international financial systems that the US can influence, as well as the US banking systems. This is a good time to remind you again that Bill Gates has had a very close-knit relationship with Huawei. -------- TRADE WAR & INTERNET-BASED COMPANIES ☞ It's the trade war, but why were internet-based companies such as Tencent and Baidu suffering losses? Answer: The state-sponsored companies like Tencent, Baidu, or Huawei have heavily invested in international trade and commodity markets, which are easily influenced by aspects that IMF interest rates, the US sanctions, or trade war can create. Example: Let's say, Tencent invests in a Tehran-based ride-hailing company. Then, through said ride-hailing company, Tencent invests in Iran's petroleum industry. Now, China's most valuable IT company is in international petrochemical trade. The business is going to make great strides until the US imposes trade embargoes oand economic sanctions against Iran. -------- TL;DR China's economy going down = Team-Z losing an astronomical amount of money. ★ Wednesday, Sep 26, 2018 ★ "Gentlemen, you guys might want to do something before it's too bloody late, no? Hisspeechlast night was .... (sniggers) Mr. Gates, now is as good a time as any. Mr.Soros, hm, don't look at melikethat." ".... But," "Yes, Mr. Soros, yourHNAis going down, too. .... Ah,Schwarzmanxiansheng, we're very sorry to learn about Blackstone'sIran&SinopecChinasituation. So, we're guessing, you'd be happy to join Mr. Gates's operation, yes? Of course, We already contactedKissingerxiansheng. ....Okaythen,Gentlemen?" • Now you can take a guess why George Soros has recently been sending out confusing messages regarding Xi Jinping. • Wait, how about Wuhan Institute of Virology? Doesn't this story concern the COVID-19 outbreak? Is the Wuhan Institute also associated with Shanghai clique? Yes, indeed. Here's How Wuhan Institute of Virology and Shanghai Clique are related:[LINK] -------- EIGHT OBJECTIVES ☞ Calling for the tide to be turned, Team-Z and Shanghai clique started to devise the plan. The objectives are: ① By shutting down international trade, crashing world economy, and exploiting its aftermath, the plan should produce an outcome letting Team-Z earn back their loss from the trade war & the US sanctions, and collect additional profits from China's BRI projects & stock markets worldwide, including the US stock markets. • Don't forget this: This point number ① also concerns the developing nations on the BRI with the large deposits of natural resources that Team-Z has invested in through China. If everything comes together nicely, Team-Z will pick up trillions of dollars from those nations alone as if they are light as a feather. Ironically this will reinforce the BRI project governance and mitigate fraud & corruption risks inherent to the international development projects. ② By utilizing the aftermath in the US, a new US administration consisted of pro-Beijing personnels should be fostered at the 2020 election. In a worst-case scenario, the aftermath should be abused enough to make Robert Lighthizer to leave the admin. Mr. Mnuchin could stay. ③ Sometime next year, the phase one trade deal must be reassessed with the new US admin. The reassessment should help China take the upper-hand at the second phase trade talk. ④ The pandemic crisis should yield a situation which allows China to delay the payments for its state-firm offshore debts. With the point number ①, this will give China a breathing room to manage its steadily-fallen forex reserves. ⑤ Since their current turf (in China) is education industry & medical science industry, Shanghai clique will have no issue with earning hefty profits by managing China's export of medical equipments & health care products which can be supplied worldwide mainly by China. People in the west will bent the knees for the clique's support. ☞ Regarding Jiang Zemin's son and medical science industry in China [LINK] ⑥ The outcome should weaken Xi & his Princelings' political power considerably in favour of Shanghai clique & Team-Z. This will let Jiang's Shanghai clique (A) reclaim some of political status & business interest controls they have lost to Xi & his Princelings. • And once this point number ⑥, with the point number ② , is realized, it would be much easier for the clique to (B) recover their huge assets hidden overseas that the current US admin or Xi & his Princelings have frozen. ⑦ Combining good old bribery with sex, the outcome should support China to re-secure control over the US governors. Once the plan is executed successfully, those governors would desperately need solutions to local economic problems and unemployment. ⑧ Lastly, implementing an e-ID system in the US similar to Beijing's Alipay and WeChat could be the cherry on top of the operation's entire outcomes. Who's supporting such a system worldwide? None other than Microsoft and Rockefeller Foundation. ಠ_ಠ -------- OLD COMRADE BECOMES A NEW RECRUIT ☞ They were afraid more talents were needed. The main target was the world’s largest economy with the most powerful military capability, after all. They ended up asking Mr. Fridman to see Lord Putin about that. The old Vova was going through a lot nowadays, people said. It could be because his nation's energy business to Europeseems to be hitting wall after wall. He is said to have enough on his plate with no end in sight, so maybe he'll join. ★ Monday, Jan 15, 2018 ★ "(pours a drink for himself) I know, but. ... What would happen if Bashar falls? How long you think you can keep it up? .... Erdogan is many things (sniggers) but he's nevergentle. (sips his drink slowly) WhenBenji'sEastMed Pipeline starts to actively compete, then what? They got the Chinamoneynow. ....Vagitand his buddies will be very unhappy. You know that. Not great, Vova." "...." "Ah, you mean what are we going to do? Hm? Hm. I'll tell you what we're going to do. This time, we're going to bankrupt the US shale gas sector. Then, of course, we can maybe convince Benji to take their time with the pipeline. Perhaps for good. (sips his drink slowly) Don't worry, Vova, It'll work. You worry too much. We'll come out the other side stronger." "So, how long until they set it off? "Hahaa, yes. They'll soon put all things in place. While marching in place, they'll play the tune a couple of months before the next sochelnik." "Nearly 20 months to brace things here, then?" "(nod slowly in happiness) Hm. Оторви́сь там, оттопы́рься, Vova" -------- USEFUL IDIOTS ☞ When the directive came, these idiots answered claiming they would be gladly "on it." All in the name of rejuvenating China's economy without grasping the real objective prevailing throughout the entire operation. Thing is, they would never realize what they are to Team-Z & their Asian overlord until it’s too late. Who are they? It's A and B, not A or B: (A) the American corporations that are too big to fail and have suffered a considerable loss because of the US-China trade war. Among those corporations, (B) the ones that have been structured with massive interest-profit relationships in/with China. "We need China in order for the US as a nation to continue being prosper," they've been shouting. No surprise there, because they've enjoyed the strides of extraordinary profits over the years while the US middle class has continued to shrink. But, in 2019 when China's stock markets nosedived for the first time since 2015 and China's authorities in financial stability & resiliency fumbled their response; it wiped that smile off their face. Still, they'll keep behaving not to offend their Asian overlord, nonetheless. -------- PERFECT PLAN ☞ Many crucial components had to come into play all at once in order to cause World War I. If one of the components were missing or different, it is unlikely that the World War I as we know of could be produced. ① The US in 2019: Overbought bubbles + Over borrowed corporations ② The US in 2020: It's an Election Year. ③ Russia has been dumping US Treasuries for the past few years. ④ Russia has been hoarding golds as if they were recreating Inca Empire. ⑤ China in 2019: Immense & long term financial troubles has started to surface. ⑥ China in 2020: The phase-one deal has been signed; leaving most of tariffs on China intact and adding another $200 Billion burden for China. ⑦ Team-Z sets up a situation in the US where some event(s) would freeze the US supply chains & demand for the next three to ten months. • Just like the 9/11, the event will be initiated at the clique's own region. However, unlike in China, the US will report multiple epicentres simultaneously. • And the CDC and the US medical task force will carry on with a number of sabotage acts, to secure enough time for the infected yet untested in those US epicentres to spread plenty. [1] [2] [3] • Here's a feasible timeline of the operation. ⑧ Then, the BOOM: Team-Z (a) manipulates the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns (b) when they need it most. The (c) bottomed out oil price will be an enforcement, which will also wreck the US energy sector as a kicker. The (d) WHO will also join as a disinformation campaign office. • Then a couple of big name investment managers will lead a movement that (will try to) bring back foreign money back to China. [1] [2] • Meanwhile, in US, the disinformation campaign will continue to be pushed until the second wave of attack arrives. -------- MEASURABLE SHORT-TERM OUTCOME ☞ We're now going through World War III. The global structure laid down by World War II had been shaken by globalization and the rise of China. This pandemic event will shock the structure further. Human history will be divided into Before 2021 and After 2021. ① Outcome pt. 1: Immediate Aftermath [pt.1] [pt.2] ② Outcome pt. 2: The US economy goes deep dive along with world economy, and the only thing Team-Z has to do is to exploit the aftermath which has been thoroughly calculated and eagerly anticipated. — Favoured assessment: There won't be a V curve ever, unless drastic measures taken within the timeframe of four months. Unprecedented market crash, the rapid unemployment acceleration because of the supply-chain shut down, and the near-death security which in turn forces consumer confidence to plummet. We're looking at a super long L shape curve unless the US prepares fast for the second wave of their asymmetric warfare. ③ Outcome pt. 3: Arguably the most important outcome. — Because of the unprecedented shutdown of international trade, the nations heavily rely on exporting natural resources will face the extreme financial threats. What if some of those are emerging markets AND massively in debt to China? What do you think China would do to said nations while the aftermath is hitting the globe hard? [PDF] Something comparable to Latin American Debt Crisis will happen. ④ Outcome pt. 4: Not that significant compared to the others but still notable outcome. — The world will need Shanghai clique's help to get medical products and equipments. -------- WHAT'S NEXT? ☞ Several analysts have discussed off the record that next it'd be a proxy warfare not using armed conflicts but with spreading a galaxy of counterfeit-currency across every possible channels. Coincidently, on Dec 13, 2017, Business Insider reported in an article "A $100 counterfeit 'supernote' found in South Korea could have been made in North Korea" that:
"It was the first of a new kind of supernote ever found in the world," Lee Ho-Joong, head of KEB Hana Bank's anti-counterfeit centre told Agence France-Presse.
Reporting the same news, The Telegraph published an article on Dec 11, 2017:
"It seems that whoever printed these supernotes has the facilities and high level of technology matching that of a government", said Lee Ho-jung, a bank spokesman from KEB Hana Bank in South Korea. "They are made with special ink that changes colour depending on the angle, patterned paper and Intaglio printing that gives texture to the surface of a note".
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019
Good afternoon and happy Saturday to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019.
What to watch in the market in the week ahead: Stocks on track for best first half in 22 years - (Source)
The fate of U.S.-China trade talks could play out in the week ahead, and that could set the tone for markets and the economy in the second half of the year. Stocks set new highs in the past week, after the Federal Reserve signaled it was ready to cut interest rates if necessary, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said trade and the global economy are two factors the Fed is watching. The S&P 500 was on track, as of Friday, to score a more than 17.6% gain for the first half, which ends Friday. If it stays at that level that would be the best first half performance since 1997, when the S&P was up 19.4% in the first six months. The big event in the coming week has been as anticipated for weeks, and it could sway sentiment for weeks to come. At the end of the week, the G-20 meets in Osaka Japan for meetings Friday and Saturday. ‘Could go either way’ President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to have their own dinner meeting at the G-20 next weekend, following discussions between their trade representatives. That meeting could decide how trade negotiations go forward, and whether the U.S. proceeds with another round of tariffs, this time on $300 billion in goods. “Everybody knows the Trump, Xi meeting could go either way,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “I think everyone expects a new tariff freeze. That the $300 billion won’t go into effect. The most you can hope for out of G-20 meeting is the tariffs are where they are right now, and there’s no more escalation.That also means China will not release the list of companies they won’t do business with.” Chandler said he will be looking for signaling from Trump and Xi on whether they are working on a deal that would be just on the trade topics, or bigger issues like North Korea and differences on the South China Sea. “I do think the G-20 is quite important in that there’s not question in recent months, the trade war started to really move into measures of confidence and measures of manufacturing activity,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Harris said he expects a positive message with an agreement of no further escalation, but probably not signs of significant progress. “I think the vibes coming out of it will be modestly positive,” he said. “Whether there’s an escalation to the next round of China tariffs is going to set the theme for the rest of the year. Even if tariffs on China are reversed, or partly reversed, at some point, every time there’s an escalation or temporary escalation, it’s another kind of blow to confidence,” he said. Harris said there’s the same risk as after the Trump, Xi meeting at the last G-20, where it was a positive tone but there was little progress afterwards and the markets then reacted negatively. “I think there’s been this broad increased awareness from every economist that the trade war is starting to have noticeable impact. Further escalation with China would be quite a big signal. If the Trump administration puts tariffs on all the Chinese products it roughly doubles the size of the trade war and it sends a very strong message that there are very few constraints on where [Trump] goes next,” he said. Powell and data Besides the meeting between Trump and Xi, the market focus will be on anything that could provide clues on what the Fed or even the European Central Bank will do, after ECB President Mario Draghi last week basically promised a new era of easing. Consumer price inflation data is expected for the euro zone, and on Friday, the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data is released, including the PCE deflator, a major inflation indicator for the Fed. There are also a few Fed speakers, including Powell who speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations Tuesday. “It’s probably going to be a big picture kind of talk about the broader challenges of the Fed,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re certainly going to ask questions about political influence at the Fed, and he’s going to dodge those. I think what I’m waiting for him to comment on is what it is they’re looking for to determine whether they’re going to cut in July or not.” Harris said Powell is not likely to say anything he did not reveal at his press briefing in the past week, and the big focus will be on the lead up to the weekend G-20. Falling interest rates and rising oil prices were two big factors in the market int he past week. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped briefly below 2%, a near 3-year low, as the Fed signaled its willingness to cut interest rates. “Should we get some sort of trade agreement that would be a nice pop to the [stock] market, but that could take the rate cut off the table,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Stovall said the stock market will also be watching oil after its rapid run higher, and the events in the Middle East surrounding Iran. West Texas Intermediate futures were up more than 9% in the past week, to $57.43. “The old adage is every $10 increase in the price of oil takes off 20 to 25 basis points off of real GDP growth,” he said. Stovall said stocks have had a solid run so far this year, but they may face some rocky times between now and the end of the summer. “For the rest of this ‘sell in May’ period we could be facing some challenges, headwinds. I think we’ will still end higher on the year. I think the seasonally optimistic September to November period will kick in but there will be a lot of challenges...will the Fed be cutting rates? what are the growth prospects?” he said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P 500 is off to it best June performance since 1955, up 7.34% as of yesterday’s close. If yesterday was the last trading day of June, this performance would have been strong enough to push the month to 6th best going back to 1930. Looking back to late May, this performance is still impressive even though it was anticipated following May’s abysmal showing. However, such strong performance in June may not carry over into July. Below S&P 500 performance in June has been split into positive and negative tables. Each table contains July’s historical performance as well as full-year performance. Historically July has been weaker after a positive June. July averages just 0.48% after an up June compared to a gain of 2.84% after a down June. Examining the Top 20 Junes and subsequent Julys showed only a modest improvement in performance with average July gain climbing to 1.11%. However, even if July does disappoint this year, the full year is likely to still be quite fair as past positive Junes where followed by full-year gains 80% of the time with an average gain of 13.44%.
U.S. stocks could have a big year if LPL Research’s forecasts prove correct. All year, we’ve maintained our fair value target on the S&P 500 Index of 3,000, implying that we expect this bull market and economic expansion to continue. If the S&P 500 closes the year at 3,000, the index will have gained 19.7% in 2019. On the surface, that seems like a high hurdle for U.S. stocks. However, the S&P 500 has already gained about 16% this year, so a rally to 3,000 isn’t far out of reach. The S&P 500 also hasn’t posted a 20% gain for the year since 2013, an unusually long stretch compared to history. “It is interesting that the S&P 500 hasn’t gained more than 20% in any one year for five consecutive years,” noted LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Only once since 1950 did it go more than five years in a row without gaining 20%, thus if this pattern continues we very well might get to 20% in 2019.” As our LPL Chart of the Day “Can The S&P 500 Index Really Gain 20% This Year?” shows, it is quite rare for the S&P 500 to go this long without a 20% annual gain. Could the streak end in 2019? Be sure to read our Midyear Outlook 2019, which is set for release next week, for more on why this could be the case.
As widely anticipated, the Fed did not change its target rate today. Instead, the Fed set the stage for cuts possibly later this year. Overall, the market’s response was a choppy climb to a modestly higher close. A more enthusiastic move by the market may have occurred if the Fed cut rates. Gold’s reaction was more favorable, finishing the day higher by over 1%. Generally, the lower interest rates go, the more desirable gold can become as lower rates typically result in a weaker dollar.
In the above chart, gold’s monthly performance from 1975 to 2018 is displayed. Historically, October has been gold’s worst month and June is a close second. Historically, after weakness in June, gold has, on average, enjoyed solid gains in July, August and September. Some of this strength in gold is likely due to safe-haven demand during the stock market’s worst two months, August and September. Gold’s best three months, July to September, could easily be above average this year, especially if the Fed decides to cut sooner rather than later.
Are Bulls An Endangered Species?
The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high yesterday, the 5th new high so far in 2019. After May, the worst month for the S&P 500 since 2010, June is up 7.3% as of 06.20.19, which would be the best June since 1955. Much of the rally this month has been sparked by a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with U.S.-China trade discussions potentially back on track. What’s quite interesting about things now though, is many signs of investor sentiment are a long way from bullish. Remember, from a contrarian (or opposing) point of view, this can suggest there is still money on the sidelines. “The S&P 500 might be at new highs, but global fund managers and individual investors are quite underweight equities right now,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “If you are looking for a reason this rally can continue, that could be it.” For example, the recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch June Global Fund Manager Survey (a survey of managers who oversee more than $600 billion in assets) showed the largest jump in cash since August 2011. Additionally, equity allocation was the lowest it had been since March 2009, and the equity-to-bond allocation was the lowest since May 2009. Not to mention the allocation to bonds was the highest it had been in eight years. “Money on the sidelines might sound cliché, but it really seems to be the case this time,” said Detrick. With the S&P 500 hitting more all-time highs, having money in the market may make more sense (or cents!). Individual investors are skeptical as well, as the recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed more bears than bulls for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since November 2016. Finally, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, AAII bulls have been under 30% for six consecutive weeks for the first time since January 2016.
Broad Strength in Health Care Sector
In an earlier post, we highlighted the fact that some of the ten best performing S&P 500 Industries between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20 were from the Health Care sector. It hasn't just been these four industries that have been strong in the Health Care sector either. The performance snapshot of the sector below shows just how strong the sector has been lately. While all six of the industries within the sector aren't up YTD or so far in Q2, between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20, Health Care is the only sector where every industry within the sector has posted positive returns. Not even the industries within the Utilities sector have been this uniformly positive. The best performer of the bunch has been Health Care Technology, which is up 8% since the end of April and has extended its YTD gain to 36.8%. The worst performing industry in the sector has been Biotech which is up 2.1% since 4/30, and while that may not sound like much, it's still better than more than half of the other industries in the index.
While the S&P 500 made a new high for the first time in 35 trading days yesterday, many of the characteristics of the groups driving the rally have shifted. To highlight this, in the table below we summarize the ten best and worst performing S&P 500 Industries from the close on 4/30 through yesterday. During that 35 trading day stretch, 34 Industries saw positive returns while another 27 declined. Industries that have seen the biggest gains between the two new highs are primarily defensive in nature as all but three come from sectors that are typically considered defensive (Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). Health Care has been the real star of the show, though. Of the sector's six different industries, four of them made the top ten! On the downside, cyclical industries have dominated the weak side. When industries like Semis, Autos, Construction & Engineering, and Air Freight are lagging the market, it really illustrates the presence of economic concerns. Leading the way lower, Energy Equipment and Services declined over 10%, followed by Semiconductors which were down just under 10% after failing at resistance on Thursday for the third time in a month. These two industries are followed by two industries (Tobacco and Power and Renewable Energy) that come from sectors that are traditionally considered defensive, but they have their own specific issues to deal with.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.24.19 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Monday 6.24.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Micron Technology, Inc. $33.25
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $4.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.75 to $0.95 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 75.96% with revenue decreasing by 39.46%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.5% below its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,540 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.
BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $249.12 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 100.00% with revenue increasing by 16.96%. The stock has drifted lower by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% below its 200 day moving average of $8.85. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,499 contracts of the $9.00 call expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.81 per share on revenue of $17.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.61% with revenue increasing by 3.73%. Short interest has increased by 60.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $192.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,273 contracts of the $175.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $10.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.71 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.35% with revenue increasing by 3.79%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $80.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,156 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.80% with revenue increasing by 8.73%. Short interest has increased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.43 per share on revenue of $34.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.54% with revenue increasing by 0.57%. Short interest has decreased by 8.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% below its 200 day moving average of $67.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, June 28, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.09 per share on revenue of $2.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.62%. Short interest has increased by 66.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $189.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,200 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.13 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.48% with revenue decreasing by 6.39%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% above its 200 day moving average of $46.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,349 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.
FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.37 per share on revenue of $358.95 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.72% with revenue increasing by 5.60%. Short interest has increased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 26.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.6% above its 200 day moving average of $237.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,350 contracts of the $280.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $979.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 12.49%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,024 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.
What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead? I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great final trading week of June and Q2 ahead wallstreetbets.
The Path To Crypto Trading Starts With Knowledge: A Brief Guide To Crypto Trading
Trading cryptocurrencies has come into fad over the last few years and become a relatively good means of earning for both professional traders and enthusiasts. If we look at the price charts that have been compiled over the years by a variety of channels, we can see that the crypto market is exhibiting the market dynamics and fluctuations much like those that can be found on traditional markets. This makes it clear that the presence of volatility on the crypto market makes it a profitable area for trading. Of course, the main question that arises in the minds of most aspiring crypto traders is how to make money trading cryptocurrencies. For this reason, many seek to learn how to day trade cryptocurrencies. Anyone willing to make the effort can truly find opportunities there. For instance, the exchange rate of BTC has grown from about $800 in 2013 to over $6,000 in 2019, after having spiked in price to over $20,000 in 2017. Ethereum was just as remarkable in its dynamics after having gone to $0.57 in 2014 to $1,180 in 2017 to $171 in 2019. Ripple was just as dynamic, going from $0.02 in 2014 to $0.32 in 2019. If that is not volatility, then we don’t know what is. This makes the crypto market one of the best avenues for risky traders seeking to make their fortunes. But mastering how to make those fortunes is over half the matter. https://preview.redd.it/bajehrv10m541.png?width=541&format=png&auto=webp&s=8be0fe84df20245d6db0d64f44aedca2047d27fc
How To Start Trading Cryptocurrencies
Anyone who wants to sink their teeth into the juicy cake of crypto trading has to first realize where cryptos are traded. Like every other financial instrument put up for trading, cryptocurrencies are placed on exchanges. The crypto market is host to over 200 exchanges, some more reputable than others. Among some of the best and renowned are Binance,BitMex, Bittrex, Huobi, Coinbase and many others. Unlike traditional exchanges on Wall Street, crypto exchanges are divided into two types – centralized and decentralized. Both work on blockchain technologies and provide almost the same level of convenience, depending on the offered instruments and the architecture of user interface. However, some exchanges are decentralized, meaning that they do not store any of the user’s information, including the wallets on any of their servers or systems and resort to external services in this regard. Decentralized exchanges do not require any intermediaries to conduct any operations and perform all the order matching themselves. On the other hand, centralized exchanges resort to a number of intermediary services to conduct their operations. The intermediaries provide anything from order matching to user wallet storage. This makes centralized exchanges much riskier and more expensive compared to their decentralized counterparts. Despite the obvious differences in platform structure, there is also the issue of convenience. Most decentralized exchanges have horrible user interfaces and are much more difficult to master. But when it comes to speeds, centralized exchanges win over their decentralized counterparts, since their platforms are better suited for transactions. Though there are tendencies of reversing the issue, the situation still remains in favor of centralized exchanges. Centralized exchanges win over decentralized ones in another important factor that is vital for trading – liquidity. Decentralized exchanges cannot compete with centralized ones in volumes of trading. However, decentralized exchanges win over in an almost complete lack of commissions and security, since they do not rely on any intermediaries. When dealing with crypto exchanges, traders also need to know how crypto trading bots work. This is because bots are allowed on crypto exchanges facilitate trading considerably. When resorting to bots, it is important to first analyze the exchanges and understand which ones offer the best instruments for convenient trading. Given the many restrictions placed on cryptocurrency trading in some countries, many traders would ask how to trade cryptocurrencies in the US. The issue is not as complicated as it might seem, since most reputable exchanges, like Binance and others operate legally on the US market. It is therefore necessary for traders to research their platforms of choice before using them to make sure they comply with US laws.
How To Trade Cryptocurrencies
Trading cryptocurrencies is done almost in exactly the same way as with other financial instruments – through the application of a variety of strategies. The main strategies on the crypto market are much like those on other markets, such as Forex, and they include: Scalping – the launch of a very large number of small orders for the purpose of making small profits in bulk, rather than waiting for one large win. Intraday – this is the basic form of trading which involves placing orders during trading hours and buying and selling assets. This is the base strategy for fixing profits during the same day without risking off-hour volatility. Investing – both long and short term investing is also a type of trading strategy, which involves waiting for an asset’s price to move (preferably up) and fixing the resulting profits. There are dozens of trading strategies on the market and MoonTrader will allow its users to make use of all of them through its convenient interface. How To Trade Bitcoin Bitcoin is the most coveted coin out there with its volatility being its main allure and bane. The first and main question posed by any starting trader is how to trade Bitcoin for profit. In fact, this question is often associated with the question of how to become a Bitcoin trader, which in itself is a rather false view on the crypto market, since the latter is much bigger than Bitcoin alone. The issue of how Bitcoin trading works is largely a reflection of any trading process on the market and does not involve any special circumstances apart from the asset’s volatility. Trading Bitcoin is done exactly the same way as with any other crypto asset. But with trading BTC comes the question of how to automate Bitcoin trading. This is where traders must first realize that their exchange of choice and strategy will be the determining factors in the question of automation and the use of bots. How to trade Ethereum Ethereum is the second most popular name on the market after Bitcoin and is traded in exactly the same way. Ethereum is considered to be a less risky asset, since its prices are lower and it is far more commonly encountered than its more expensive counterpart. How To Trade Ripple Ripple is the third most frequently encountered name on most crypto asset charts, mostly because of its relatively low volatility and popularity as an instrument for transactions used by some banks. The confidence that traders have in Ripple and its low price makes it a favorite for beginning traders and a low-cost option for scalping orders. https://preview.redd.it/vl0e1bo90m541.jpg?width=1254&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5b51c59dfa22fc8f4319207d11b3c51e85d24cd5
Learning How To Trade Cryptocurrency
The biggest challenge facing any aspiring trader who wishes to join the crypto market and start trading Bitcoin and other assets is learning how to do it properly. In fact, reading is the only way followed by a gradual and phased transition from test trading to real trading. The process may well be painful at first, but experience counts the most in trading. MoonTrader knows all too well how difficult it may be to learn the ropes of crypto trading, so the platform is delighted to present an entire block of content devoted exclusively to educational content. The https://moontrader.com/en/category/beginners-guide-to-trading-crypto/ section offers accessible, clear and valuable insight into the steps necessary to start the journey into crypto trading.
The Risks
Crypto trading is not without its risks. The market is inherently risky for a number of factors. Ironically, the profit making factor of volatility is also the factor that can reduce profits to losses. When embarking on the journey of crypto trading, aspiring traders must realize and ascertain the risks involved and consciously undertake all of their next steps. The best step to take is to create a trading strategy first and rely on one of the most important instruments available on the market – the margin. By trading with a margin, traders can minimize their losses and ensure a great enough volume of trading. Binance Futures, for example, offers a large variety of margins from x1 to x125 to ensure that traders have the necessary leverage to trade effectively. It is important to note that margin trading is an advanced instrument and cannot be reliable enough for novice traders. As such, MoonTrader encourages aspiring traders to refrain from margin trading until they are confident enough to risk greater volumes of assets during trading.
Keep It Going
Learning is the process of acquiring experience and the latter counts the most in trading. Before embarking on the path of trading cryptocurrencies, traders must first compile a large enough amount of knowledge that they will be able to rely upon in the variety of situations that can arise on the market. First and foremost, it is vital to refrain from negative sentiment and look ahead into brighter prospects. Secondly, aspiring traders must study the market and find a suitable platform. Thirdly, novice traders must build a strategy that suits their characters and styles and make sure to abide by it. Once that has been mastered, they can start delving into the more advanced aspects of trading. Whatever path traders take, MoonTrader will be there to help them with both information and instruments to make sure their trading is profitable and enjoyable. Check us out at https://moontrader.io Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MoonTraderPlatform Twitter: https://twitter.com/MoonTrader_io LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/19203733 Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/Moontrader_official/ Telegram: https://t.me/moontrader_news_en Originally posted on our blog.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019
Good afternoon and happy Saturday to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019.
What to watch in the market in the week ahead: Stocks on track for best first half in 22 years - (Source)
The fate of U.S.-China trade talks could play out in the week ahead, and that could set the tone for markets and the economy in the second half of the year. Stocks set new highs in the past week, after the Federal Reserve signaled it was ready to cut interest rates if necessary, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said trade and the global economy are two factors the Fed is watching. The S&P 500 was on track, as of Friday, to score a more than 17.6% gain for the first half, which ends Friday. If it stays at that level that would be the best first half performance since 1997, when the S&P was up 19.4% in the first six months. The big event in the coming week has been as anticipated for weeks, and it could sway sentiment for weeks to come. At the end of the week, the G-20 meets in Osaka Japan for meetings Friday and Saturday. ‘Could go either way’ President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to have their own dinner meeting at the G-20 next weekend, following discussions between their trade representatives. That meeting could decide how trade negotiations go forward, and whether the U.S. proceeds with another round of tariffs, this time on $300 billion in goods. “Everybody knows the Trump, Xi meeting could go either way,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “I think everyone expects a new tariff freeze. That the $300 billion won’t go into effect. The most you can hope for out of G-20 meeting is the tariffs are where they are right now, and there’s no more escalation.That also means China will not release the list of companies they won’t do business with.” Chandler said he will be looking for signaling from Trump and Xi on whether they are working on a deal that would be just on the trade topics, or bigger issues like North Korea and differences on the South China Sea. “I do think the G-20 is quite important in that there’s not question in recent months, the trade war started to really move into measures of confidence and measures of manufacturing activity,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Harris said he expects a positive message with an agreement of no further escalation, but probably not signs of significant progress. “I think the vibes coming out of it will be modestly positive,” he said. “Whether there’s an escalation to the next round of China tariffs is going to set the theme for the rest of the year. Even if tariffs on China are reversed, or partly reversed, at some point, every time there’s an escalation or temporary escalation, it’s another kind of blow to confidence,” he said. Harris said there’s the same risk as after the Trump, Xi meeting at the last G-20, where it was a positive tone but there was little progress afterwards and the markets then reacted negatively. “I think there’s been this broad increased awareness from every economist that the trade war is starting to have noticeable impact. Further escalation with China would be quite a big signal. If the Trump administration puts tariffs on all the Chinese products it roughly doubles the size of the trade war and it sends a very strong message that there are very few constraints on where [Trump] goes next,” he said. Powell and data Besides the meeting between Trump and Xi, the market focus will be on anything that could provide clues on what the Fed or even the European Central Bank will do, after ECB President Mario Draghi last week basically promised a new era of easing. Consumer price inflation data is expected for the euro zone, and on Friday, the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data is released, including the PCE deflator, a major inflation indicator for the Fed. There are also a few Fed speakers, including Powell who speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations Tuesday. “It’s probably going to be a big picture kind of talk about the broader challenges of the Fed,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re certainly going to ask questions about political influence at the Fed, and he’s going to dodge those. I think what I’m waiting for him to comment on is what it is they’re looking for to determine whether they’re going to cut in July or not.” Harris said Powell is not likely to say anything he did not reveal at his press briefing in the past week, and the big focus will be on the lead up to the weekend G-20. Falling interest rates and rising oil prices were two big factors in the market int he past week. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped briefly below 2%, a near 3-year low, as the Fed signaled its willingness to cut interest rates. “Should we get some sort of trade agreement that would be a nice pop to the [stock] market, but that could take the rate cut off the table,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Stovall said the stock market will also be watching oil after its rapid run higher, and the events in the Middle East surrounding Iran. West Texas Intermediate futures were up more than 9% in the past week, to $57.43. “The old adage is every $10 increase in the price of oil takes off 20 to 25 basis points off of real GDP growth,” he said. Stovall said stocks have had a solid run so far this year, but they may face some rocky times between now and the end of the summer. “For the rest of this ‘sell in May’ period we could be facing some challenges, headwinds. I think we’ will still end higher on the year. I think the seasonally optimistic September to November period will kick in but there will be a lot of challenges...will the Fed be cutting rates? what are the growth prospects?” he said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P 500 is off to it best June performance since 1955, up 7.34% as of yesterday’s close. If yesterday was the last trading day of June, this performance would have been strong enough to push the month to 6th best going back to 1930. Looking back to late May, this performance is still impressive even though it was anticipated following May’s abysmal showing. However, such strong performance in June may not carry over into July. Below S&P 500 performance in June has been split into positive and negative tables. Each table contains July’s historical performance as well as full-year performance. Historically July has been weaker after a positive June. July averages just 0.48% after an up June compared to a gain of 2.84% after a down June. Examining the Top 20 Junes and subsequent Julys showed only a modest improvement in performance with average July gain climbing to 1.11%. However, even if July does disappoint this year, the full year is likely to still be quite fair as past positive Junes where followed by full-year gains 80% of the time with an average gain of 13.44%.
U.S. stocks could have a big year if LPL Research’s forecasts prove correct. All year, we’ve maintained our fair value target on the S&P 500 Index of 3,000, implying that we expect this bull market and economic expansion to continue. If the S&P 500 closes the year at 3,000, the index will have gained 19.7% in 2019. On the surface, that seems like a high hurdle for U.S. stocks. However, the S&P 500 has already gained about 16% this year, so a rally to 3,000 isn’t far out of reach. The S&P 500 also hasn’t posted a 20% gain for the year since 2013, an unusually long stretch compared to history. “It is interesting that the S&P 500 hasn’t gained more than 20% in any one year for five consecutive years,” noted LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Only once since 1950 did it go more than five years in a row without gaining 20%, thus if this pattern continues we very well might get to 20% in 2019.” As our LPL Chart of the Day “Can The S&P 500 Index Really Gain 20% This Year?” shows, it is quite rare for the S&P 500 to go this long without a 20% annual gain. Could the streak end in 2019? Be sure to read our Midyear Outlook 2019, which is set for release next week, for more on why this could be the case.
As widely anticipated, the Fed did not change its target rate today. Instead, the Fed set the stage for cuts possibly later this year. Overall, the market’s response was a choppy climb to a modestly higher close. A more enthusiastic move by the market may have occurred if the Fed cut rates. Gold’s reaction was more favorable, finishing the day higher by over 1%. Generally, the lower interest rates go, the more desirable gold can become as lower rates typically result in a weaker dollar.
In the above chart, gold’s monthly performance from 1975 to 2018 is displayed. Historically, October has been gold’s worst month and June is a close second. Historically, after weakness in June, gold has, on average, enjoyed solid gains in July, August and September. Some of this strength in gold is likely due to safe-haven demand during the stock market’s worst two months, August and September. Gold’s best three months, July to September, could easily be above average this year, especially if the Fed decides to cut sooner rather than later.
Are Bulls An Endangered Species?
The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high yesterday, the 5th new high so far in 2019. After May, the worst month for the S&P 500 since 2010, June is up 7.3% as of 06.20.19, which would be the best June since 1955. Much of the rally this month has been sparked by a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with U.S.-China trade discussions potentially back on track. What’s quite interesting about things now though, is many signs of investor sentiment are a long way from bullish. Remember, from a contrarian (or opposing) point of view, this can suggest there is still money on the sidelines. “The S&P 500 might be at new highs, but global fund managers and individual investors are quite underweight equities right now,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “If you are looking for a reason this rally can continue, that could be it.” For example, the recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch June Global Fund Manager Survey (a survey of managers who oversee more than $600 billion in assets) showed the largest jump in cash since August 2011. Additionally, equity allocation was the lowest it had been since March 2009, and the equity-to-bond allocation was the lowest since May 2009. Not to mention the allocation to bonds was the highest it had been in eight years. “Money on the sidelines might sound cliché, but it really seems to be the case this time,” said Detrick. With the S&P 500 hitting more all-time highs, having money in the market may make more sense (or cents!). Individual investors are skeptical as well, as the recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed more bears than bulls for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since November 2016. Finally, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, AAII bulls have been under 30% for six consecutive weeks for the first time since January 2016.
Broad Strength in Health Care Sector
In an earlier post, we highlighted the fact that some of the ten best performing S&P 500 Industries between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20 were from the Health Care sector. It hasn't just been these four industries that have been strong in the Health Care sector either. The performance snapshot of the sector below shows just how strong the sector has been lately. While all six of the industries within the sector aren't up YTD or so far in Q2, between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20, Health Care is the only sector where every industry within the sector has posted positive returns. Not even the industries within the Utilities sector have been this uniformly positive. The best performer of the bunch has been Health Care Technology, which is up 8% since the end of April and has extended its YTD gain to 36.8%. The worst performing industry in the sector has been Biotech which is up 2.1% since 4/30, and while that may not sound like much, it's still better than more than half of the other industries in the index.
While the S&P 500 made a new high for the first time in 35 trading days yesterday, many of the characteristics of the groups driving the rally have shifted. To highlight this, in the table below we summarize the ten best and worst performing S&P 500 Industries from the close on 4/30 through yesterday. During that 35 trading day stretch, 34 Industries saw positive returns while another 27 declined. Industries that have seen the biggest gains between the two new highs are primarily defensive in nature as all but three come from sectors that are typically considered defensive (Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). Health Care has been the real star of the show, though. Of the sector's six different industries, four of them made the top ten! On the downside, cyclical industries have dominated the weak side. When industries like Semis, Autos, Construction & Engineering, and Air Freight are lagging the market, it really illustrates the presence of economic concerns. Leading the way lower, Energy Equipment and Services declined over 10%, followed by Semiconductors which were down just under 10% after failing at resistance on Thursday for the third time in a month. These two industries are followed by two industries (Tobacco and Power and Renewable Energy) that come from sectors that are traditionally considered defensive, but they have their own specific issues to deal with.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.24.19 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 6.24.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Micron Technology, Inc. $33.25
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $4.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.75 to $0.95 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 75.96% with revenue decreasing by 39.46%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.5% below its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,540 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.
BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $249.12 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 100.00% with revenue increasing by 16.96%. The stock has drifted lower by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% below its 200 day moving average of $8.85. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,499 contracts of the $9.00 call expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.81 per share on revenue of $17.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.61% with revenue increasing by 3.73%. Short interest has increased by 60.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $192.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,273 contracts of the $175.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $10.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.71 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.35% with revenue increasing by 3.79%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $80.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,156 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.80% with revenue increasing by 8.73%. Short interest has increased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.43 per share on revenue of $34.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.54% with revenue increasing by 0.57%. Short interest has decreased by 8.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% below its 200 day moving average of $67.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, June 28, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.09 per share on revenue of $2.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.62%. Short interest has increased by 66.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $189.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,200 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.13 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.48% with revenue decreasing by 6.39%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% above its 200 day moving average of $46.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,349 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.
FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.37 per share on revenue of $358.95 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.72% with revenue increasing by 5.60%. Short interest has increased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 26.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.6% above its 200 day moving average of $237.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,350 contracts of the $280.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $979.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 12.49%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,024 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.
What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead? I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great final trading week of June and Q2 ahead stocks.
How I flipped around the conventional model to recover from my school past failures… Imagine my story as if it was you and what you would have done… When I was at school, specially from 11 years old to 18, I always hated doing homework. I was very alert and conscious that I am probably living the best years of my life and I didn’t want to pass my time, precious young time, to fulfil my homework duty. Yes! Because I have seen it more like a job not being paid and always told to myself, if it was for me, I would do it, but it is more a society thing, for the parents, the teacher or other people that I didn’t care of. What I wanted to do was only enjoying my young life moments. The result of that was terrible as I had very bad scores and was almost always close to do a second year. I managed (And I still don’t understand how?!) to get my middle school certification and succeed at the exam. Maybe because I had some interests in science. This strategy had definitely found its limits there since it didn’t work in high school where I followed the scientific path but failed twice (two years in a row) on exit exams. Why? · The right mindset wasn’t there. · The cons of freedom (LoL) gave me the opportunity to do what I wanted · No real structure at school to face or identify those issues and address them appropriately. Then went to the army for a year and decided thereafter to go in the job market. My strategy was just to find a job, then evolve in the company. But it wasn’t that easy. I followed an internal training at Disney to become a leader. I gathered most of my experience there, and it is still serving me now. It is one of the best schools of management I ever been to. I would definitely suggest you to start there. The issue was the income, I was performing so well that I was earning the same as my supervisor and wouldn’t get any pay rise in the next 5 years. Lesson: · If there is no scope for the next 5 years for you, just move on! X, Z, Millennial … It doesn’t matter, that how it goes today, people don’t want to be hire and stay at the same position until retirement. People evolve or have self-promotions by getting a new job with higher responsibility. I then decided to sell apartments. It was my first experience has a business director, I was 25 years old and after I one year I wind up the company I have created. It was so tough, so dirty market, the competition was using colluding technics to keep their monopole, this with the sectors notary practices. Anyway… Lesson: · Save, save, save money before starting any business because licenses, taxes, insurances, transport, coffees with clients…etc… starts to be a lot when you are not making sales. And, it is not easy to make a sale. · Get a mentor, learn as much as you can, do some internship and ask a lot of questions to prepare your plan for the future company that you want to create. · Know your gapes and train yourself or with a professional help to tackle your. Let me explain why the title is about “Good Academic Records” I was so bad at languages, I learned Spanish and English for 7 or 8 years. But if you have red the beginning you will understand that I wasn’t also good at it because of my attitude towards school. I decided to go the Netherland where I found a job opportunity in Amsterdam. After 6 months, I was able to market, write reports, do some accounts payables and support, All in English! I then went in Spain, one week in Cordoba and another in Barcelona, I stayed with Spanish families who brought my Spanish level to the perfect fluency (some extra trips at Lloret del Mar also. But it’s been a while I didn’t use Spanish; I might need 1 or 2 weeks to regain my level). Lastly but not the least, I went for a year in Japan and learned Japanese as well, working in English, socialising in Japanese after work. I was working in the Forex market and then I worked for Abercrombie&Fitch helping them to open their first ever store in Japan (Tokyo, Ginza Store). Then everything changes and started to become interesting… A friend of mine told me a story about his uncle who wasn’t very good at school and everyone was laughing at him. He arrived to the age of around 35 years old and didn’t say anything to no one and starts studying. He surprised his all family after 7 or 8 years when they knew that he became a doctor. Now he is making more money than anyone else. This story, I didn’t believe it and tested my friend several times in different moment of life and different time. I understood that it is true. I kept it on my mind. We were unemployed on that time and struggling: My friend: I have an uncle he is a doctor in the South of France. Me: Oh! Cool, but why are you talking about him now? My friend: He’s been a very bad student and stayed unemployed for a while. Me: Hahahaha, ok! you telling me that because of our situation. Hahahaha My friend: Everyone was making fun of him, but in his back and he could guess it. Me: I hate people talking in the back of others. My friend: But you know what? One day he decided to go to the medicine faculty and secretly started studying. (in France you can study for free or almost). Me: I can guess what you are going to say, but I don’t believe you hahaha My friend: NOOoo! I swear! listen! After 8 years struggling, he became a doctor in his mid-40s and now he is super rich. And he is proud and humble. Me: Popopopo! What a story! It is impossible! My friend: No, it is possible, I witnessed it. It proves that we can make it… The power is on your hands story! Game changing for me… Big meeting with myself to reorganize everything! Same as in the picture below!..or almost (LoL) In 2013, at 31, I didn’t tell anyone around me and decided to jump into a plane, booked my hotel while flying and went one year in Australia and have seen how the environment was. I never felt like this before. It was just the perfect environment for me to restart everything. In 2014, I started a Diploma of Management learned many things, but more than everything, it was my first return to the model I hated when I was kid, but this time, it was for myself and to validate all the things I have learned in my working journey around the globe. One year after, in 2015, I graduated with high distinctions. In 2016, I decide to keep going, I started a Bachelor of Business Accounting. It was even more exiting for me and a big challenge. I managed to finish it in 2 years and half, in 2018. I was first in my promo and had a GPA of 4.6, got the Academic Excellence Award. Now in 2019, I have created my own business and I am learning, learning and learning! More and more! Always! I learn by doing. It is a test to see how good I will be this time in my business venture compare to the time when I failed in my real estate adventure for example. Good Academic Records! That was the title! The lesson is to not just give up because we all have different journey in this life. Good academic records are not crucial but can build confidence! · It is more delicious to enjoy your achievement when it is for the pleasure of learning. · Good Academic Records didn’t help my friends in general to get a better job but having a good network, Yes! · If you want to become a doctor you better study while you are still young because the story of my friend’s uncle is super pretty rare and it is time consuming study. · Nowadays, more and more companies are focusing on work experience rather than academic achievements. The sector of IT is the best example of it. · Sometimes you don’t achieve anything but some people around you do. Talk about them around you, you might influence the life decisions of your friends in a good way giving them hope and pushing them to do differently and be inspired by your story. Today I am trying something new that I always wanted to do, open my own store, I don’t think that it requires good academic records to do so as numerous examples proved that timing in life is more important than anything. I just studied at the right moment and had the chance to experience a lot. What about you? What was your path? Are you also wanting to get out of the conventional road and take risks? (I asked the question not in Reddit but didn't get anwer yet)
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019
Good afternoon and happy Saturday to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 24th, 2019.
What to watch in the market in the week ahead: Stocks on track for best first half in 22 years - (Source)
The fate of U.S.-China trade talks could play out in the week ahead, and that could set the tone for markets and the economy in the second half of the year. Stocks set new highs in the past week, after the Federal Reserve signaled it was ready to cut interest rates if necessary, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said trade and the global economy are two factors the Fed is watching. The S&P 500 was on track, as of Friday, to score a more than 17.6% gain for the first half, which ends Friday. If it stays at that level that would be the best first half performance since 1997, when the S&P was up 19.4% in the first six months. The big event in the coming week has been as anticipated for weeks, and it could sway sentiment for weeks to come. At the end of the week, the G-20 meets in Osaka Japan for meetings Friday and Saturday. ‘Could go either way’ President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to have their own dinner meeting at the G-20 next weekend, following discussions between their trade representatives. That meeting could decide how trade negotiations go forward, and whether the U.S. proceeds with another round of tariffs, this time on $300 billion in goods. “Everybody knows the Trump, Xi meeting could go either way,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “I think everyone expects a new tariff freeze. That the $300 billion won’t go into effect. The most you can hope for out of G-20 meeting is the tariffs are where they are right now, and there’s no more escalation.That also means China will not release the list of companies they won’t do business with.” Chandler said he will be looking for signaling from Trump and Xi on whether they are working on a deal that would be just on the trade topics, or bigger issues like North Korea and differences on the South China Sea. “I do think the G-20 is quite important in that there’s not question in recent months, the trade war started to really move into measures of confidence and measures of manufacturing activity,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Harris said he expects a positive message with an agreement of no further escalation, but probably not signs of significant progress. “I think the vibes coming out of it will be modestly positive,” he said. “Whether there’s an escalation to the next round of China tariffs is going to set the theme for the rest of the year. Even if tariffs on China are reversed, or partly reversed, at some point, every time there’s an escalation or temporary escalation, it’s another kind of blow to confidence,” he said. Harris said there’s the same risk as after the Trump, Xi meeting at the last G-20, where it was a positive tone but there was little progress afterwards and the markets then reacted negatively. “I think there’s been this broad increased awareness from every economist that the trade war is starting to have noticeable impact. Further escalation with China would be quite a big signal. If the Trump administration puts tariffs on all the Chinese products it roughly doubles the size of the trade war and it sends a very strong message that there are very few constraints on where [Trump] goes next,” he said. Powell and data Besides the meeting between Trump and Xi, the market focus will be on anything that could provide clues on what the Fed or even the European Central Bank will do, after ECB President Mario Draghi last week basically promised a new era of easing. Consumer price inflation data is expected for the euro zone, and on Friday, the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data is released, including the PCE deflator, a major inflation indicator for the Fed. There are also a few Fed speakers, including Powell who speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations Tuesday. “It’s probably going to be a big picture kind of talk about the broader challenges of the Fed,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re certainly going to ask questions about political influence at the Fed, and he’s going to dodge those. I think what I’m waiting for him to comment on is what it is they’re looking for to determine whether they’re going to cut in July or not.” Harris said Powell is not likely to say anything he did not reveal at his press briefing in the past week, and the big focus will be on the lead up to the weekend G-20. Falling interest rates and rising oil prices were two big factors in the market int he past week. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped briefly below 2%, a near 3-year low, as the Fed signaled its willingness to cut interest rates. “Should we get some sort of trade agreement that would be a nice pop to the [stock] market, but that could take the rate cut off the table,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Stovall said the stock market will also be watching oil after its rapid run higher, and the events in the Middle East surrounding Iran. West Texas Intermediate futures were up more than 9% in the past week, to $57.43. “The old adage is every $10 increase in the price of oil takes off 20 to 25 basis points off of real GDP growth,” he said. Stovall said stocks have had a solid run so far this year, but they may face some rocky times between now and the end of the summer. “For the rest of this ‘sell in May’ period we could be facing some challenges, headwinds. I think we’ will still end higher on the year. I think the seasonally optimistic September to November period will kick in but there will be a lot of challenges...will the Fed be cutting rates? what are the growth prospects?” he said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P 500 is off to it best June performance since 1955, up 7.34% as of yesterday’s close. If yesterday was the last trading day of June, this performance would have been strong enough to push the month to 6th best going back to 1930. Looking back to late May, this performance is still impressive even though it was anticipated following May’s abysmal showing. However, such strong performance in June may not carry over into July. Below S&P 500 performance in June has been split into positive and negative tables. Each table contains July’s historical performance as well as full-year performance. Historically July has been weaker after a positive June. July averages just 0.48% after an up June compared to a gain of 2.84% after a down June. Examining the Top 20 Junes and subsequent Julys showed only a modest improvement in performance with average July gain climbing to 1.11%. However, even if July does disappoint this year, the full year is likely to still be quite fair as past positive Junes where followed by full-year gains 80% of the time with an average gain of 13.44%.
U.S. stocks could have a big year if LPL Research’s forecasts prove correct. All year, we’ve maintained our fair value target on the S&P 500 Index of 3,000, implying that we expect this bull market and economic expansion to continue. If the S&P 500 closes the year at 3,000, the index will have gained 19.7% in 2019. On the surface, that seems like a high hurdle for U.S. stocks. However, the S&P 500 has already gained about 16% this year, so a rally to 3,000 isn’t far out of reach. The S&P 500 also hasn’t posted a 20% gain for the year since 2013, an unusually long stretch compared to history. “It is interesting that the S&P 500 hasn’t gained more than 20% in any one year for five consecutive years,” noted LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Only once since 1950 did it go more than five years in a row without gaining 20%, thus if this pattern continues we very well might get to 20% in 2019.” As our LPL Chart of the Day “Can The S&P 500 Index Really Gain 20% This Year?” shows, it is quite rare for the S&P 500 to go this long without a 20% annual gain. Could the streak end in 2019? Be sure to read our Midyear Outlook 2019, which is set for release next week, for more on why this could be the case.
As widely anticipated, the Fed did not change its target rate today. Instead, the Fed set the stage for cuts possibly later this year. Overall, the market’s response was a choppy climb to a modestly higher close. A more enthusiastic move by the market may have occurred if the Fed cut rates. Gold’s reaction was more favorable, finishing the day higher by over 1%. Generally, the lower interest rates go, the more desirable gold can become as lower rates typically result in a weaker dollar.
In the above chart, gold’s monthly performance from 1975 to 2018 is displayed. Historically, October has been gold’s worst month and June is a close second. Historically, after weakness in June, gold has, on average, enjoyed solid gains in July, August and September. Some of this strength in gold is likely due to safe-haven demand during the stock market’s worst two months, August and September. Gold’s best three months, July to September, could easily be above average this year, especially if the Fed decides to cut sooner rather than later.
Are Bulls An Endangered Species?
The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high yesterday, the 5th new high so far in 2019. After May, the worst month for the S&P 500 since 2010, June is up 7.3% as of 06.20.19, which would be the best June since 1955. Much of the rally this month has been sparked by a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with U.S.-China trade discussions potentially back on track. What’s quite interesting about things now though, is many signs of investor sentiment are a long way from bullish. Remember, from a contrarian (or opposing) point of view, this can suggest there is still money on the sidelines. “The S&P 500 might be at new highs, but global fund managers and individual investors are quite underweight equities right now,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “If you are looking for a reason this rally can continue, that could be it.” For example, the recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch June Global Fund Manager Survey (a survey of managers who oversee more than $600 billion in assets) showed the largest jump in cash since August 2011. Additionally, equity allocation was the lowest it had been since March 2009, and the equity-to-bond allocation was the lowest since May 2009. Not to mention the allocation to bonds was the highest it had been in eight years. “Money on the sidelines might sound cliché, but it really seems to be the case this time,” said Detrick. With the S&P 500 hitting more all-time highs, having money in the market may make more sense (or cents!). Individual investors are skeptical as well, as the recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed more bears than bulls for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since November 2016. Finally, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, AAII bulls have been under 30% for six consecutive weeks for the first time since January 2016.
Broad Strength in Health Care Sector
In an earlier post, we highlighted the fact that some of the ten best performing S&P 500 Industries between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20 were from the Health Care sector. It hasn't just been these four industries that have been strong in the Health Care sector either. The performance snapshot of the sector below shows just how strong the sector has been lately. While all six of the industries within the sector aren't up YTD or so far in Q2, between the S&P 500's highs on 4/30 and 6/20, Health Care is the only sector where every industry within the sector has posted positive returns. Not even the industries within the Utilities sector have been this uniformly positive. The best performer of the bunch has been Health Care Technology, which is up 8% since the end of April and has extended its YTD gain to 36.8%. The worst performing industry in the sector has been Biotech which is up 2.1% since 4/30, and while that may not sound like much, it's still better than more than half of the other industries in the index.
While the S&P 500 made a new high for the first time in 35 trading days yesterday, many of the characteristics of the groups driving the rally have shifted. To highlight this, in the table below we summarize the ten best and worst performing S&P 500 Industries from the close on 4/30 through yesterday. During that 35 trading day stretch, 34 Industries saw positive returns while another 27 declined. Industries that have seen the biggest gains between the two new highs are primarily defensive in nature as all but three come from sectors that are typically considered defensive (Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). Health Care has been the real star of the show, though. Of the sector's six different industries, four of them made the top ten! On the downside, cyclical industries have dominated the weak side. When industries like Semis, Autos, Construction & Engineering, and Air Freight are lagging the market, it really illustrates the presence of economic concerns. Leading the way lower, Energy Equipment and Services declined over 10%, followed by Semiconductors which were down just under 10% after failing at resistance on Thursday for the third time in a month. These two industries are followed by two industries (Tobacco and Power and Renewable Energy) that come from sectors that are traditionally considered defensive, but they have their own specific issues to deal with.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.24.19 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Monday 6.24.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Micron Technology, Inc. $33.25
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $4.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.75 to $0.95 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 75.96% with revenue decreasing by 39.46%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.5% below its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,540 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.
BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $249.12 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 100.00% with revenue increasing by 16.96%. The stock has drifted lower by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% below its 200 day moving average of $8.85. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,499 contracts of the $9.00 call expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.81 per share on revenue of $17.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.61% with revenue increasing by 3.73%. Short interest has increased by 60.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $192.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,273 contracts of the $175.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $10.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.71 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.35% with revenue increasing by 3.79%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $80.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,156 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.80% with revenue increasing by 8.73%. Short interest has increased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.43 per share on revenue of $34.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.54% with revenue increasing by 0.57%. Short interest has decreased by 8.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% below its 200 day moving average of $67.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, June 28, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, June 28, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.09 per share on revenue of $2.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.62%. Short interest has increased by 66.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $189.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,200 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.13 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.48% with revenue decreasing by 6.39%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% above its 200 day moving average of $46.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 19, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,349 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.
FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.37 per share on revenue of $358.95 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.72% with revenue increasing by 5.60%. Short interest has increased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 26.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.6% above its 200 day moving average of $237.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,350 contracts of the $280.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $979.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 12.49%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,024 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.
What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead? I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great final trading week of June and Q2 ahead StockMarket.
The Government has no proposal to increase the amount provided under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, the Minister for Rural Development Narinder Singh Tomar informed the Rajya Sabha today. -Economic Times India’s financial system remains stable against the backdrop of improving resilience of the banking sector, even though the emerging trends in global economic as also geopolitical environment pose challenges, the RBI said. -Business Line The RBI is reviewing its master direction on frauds and considering additional measures for timely recognition of frauds and enforcement action against violations, it said in its financial stability report (FSR). -Livemint The RBI today set an average base rate of 9.18% for non-banking financial companies and micro finance institutions to be charged from their customers for the quarter beginning July 1. “The applicable average base rate to be charged by non-banking financial companies and micro finance institutions (NBFC-MFIs) to their borrowers for the quarter beginning July 1, 2019 will be 9.18%,” RBI said in a release. -Business Line In a staggering revelation indicating that Indian banks have been under-reporting frauds. The Data released by the RBI in its latest edition of the Financial Stability Report, suggests that nearly 40% of the under-reported frauds actually took place in 3 years between 2013 to 2016. -Economic Times Gross NPAs of NBFCs have risen from 5.8% in 2017-18 to 6.6% of their loans in 2018-19 even as net NPAs declined by 10 basis points from 3.8 to 3.7 per cent in the same period, the RBI’s Financial Stability Report has said. -Business Standard After taking a hit on account of loans to IL&Fs, Bandhan Bank will stay away from big corporate loans, and will remain focused on micro-loans in the short term, C S Ghosh, MD & CEO of the bank said. -Business Standard IndusInd Bank has now become 2.58% owner of micro -finance firm Satin Creditcare following allotment of 13.43 lakh equities against preference shares. -Economic Times United Bank of India (UBI) is targeting an NPA recovery of around Rs 4,000 crore in the 2019-20 fiscal on the back of a one-time settlement (OTS) scheme, a top official said. In the April-June quarter, the bank is expecting a recovery of Rs 300-400 crore, which would mainly accrue from the retailing sector, MD and CEO Ashok Kumar Pradhan said. -Business Line As per latest NPCI data, 33.5 million transactions worth Rs 9,000 crore happened over micro ATMs in May. The Aadhar-Enabled Payments Channel (AEPS), which falls under the broader category of micro-ATMs, has emerged as one of the fastest growing payments systems in the country, second only to the UPI system in terms of annual volume growth. -Economic Times The SBI today revealed the names of 10 new big-ticket firms from the pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery and power sectors and also their top officials as it declared them 'wilful defaulters'. Mostly based in Mumbai, the outstandings from these loan defaulters are pegged at nearly 1,500 crore, and they have been served repeated reminders to clear their borrowings. -Livemint Bank of Maharashtra said it will raise up to Rs 3,000 crore equity capital through various modes, including follow-on public offer or preferential issuance of shares. The decision was taken at the bank's annual general meeting held on June 27, 2019. -Moneycontrol.com SIDBI has committed Rs 3,123.2 crore to 49 SEBI registered Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs), who in turn have invested Rs 1,625.73 crore into 247 startups, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said today. -Economic Times In a first-of-its-kind initiative, a Jet Airways Employee Consortium and AdiGroup today announced a partnership to bid for 75% of the airline through the NCLT process, members of the consortium said. -Economic Times Union Minister for MSME Nitin Gadkari said that his vision is to increase MSMEs contribution to India’s GDP to over 50% from the current 29% and that for the Indian economy to scale the $5 trillion mark. -Economic Times PM Modi and US President Donald Trump Friday "aired" their concerns over the bilateral trade disputes and agreed for an early meeting of their commerce ministers to sort out the issues, a day after the US leader demanded withdrawal of the "very high" tariffs levied by India on American goods. -Economic Times India has received USD 1.81 billion FDI from China during April 2014 to March 2019, Parliament was informed Friday. -Economic Times India's foreign exchange reserve touched a life-time high of $426.42 billion after it surged by $4.215 billion in the week to June 21, RBI data showed. Forex reserves had scaled a record high of $426.028 billion in the week to April 13, 2018. -Livemint USD/INR 69.02 SENSEX 39394.64(-191.77) NIFTY50 11788.85(-52.70)
10-16 02:23 - 'Hurling Rocks at Caimans: A Cowboy's Tale' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/mine_myownbiz13 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 56-66min
''' In 1991, my mother had the foresight to leave Venezuela for the United States. She sacrificed a medical profession, her family, her friends, and the comforts of her own land and culture. It was before Chavez, before communism, before famine, before societal collapse. She didn’t know it at the time (perhaps she felt it), but she was saving our lives. Recently, I was asked by her brother, my uncle, to give some words of advice to his youngest son, whom he sent to live in upstate New York earlier this year in the hopes that he might find some opportunity there. He’s 17 and fascinated by cryptocurrencies, but knows next to nothing about them. I wrote this letter for him. Hello Cousin, I write you in the hopes that you will take away something useful from my own experience. There’s a saying in English that’s always stayed with me, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” In other words, nothing in life is easy, not money, not love, not anything. Nothing worth your time is ever going to be easy. There’s no free lunch! I first got into trading in 2008. Your dad had heard from a friend that Citigroup stock was going to pop soon and that he should buy it. The US Stock Market can only be traded by U.S. citizens and special types of corporations, so he asked me to act as a proxy for his investment, and I did. I did it because I thought it would be a get-rich quick rich scheme that I could learn to do on my own. At this time I was in graduate school and unsure of what to do with my life. I’ve always been good at school. It’s easy for me. I had professors telling me I’d make a great scholar or a great lawyer, but at the time I was teaching middle-school English in a poor neighborhood of Miami. I had a big decision to make. Naturally, I decided to get rich quick! I spent 2-3 months reading books on stock trading and executing simulated trades on practice accounts. I learned to work a variety of trading platforms so that I could trade several markets around the world, which I did. I quit my job in the fall of 2008 and took my entire life savings of $20,000 into the market. The broker gave me 3.5 times leverage on my money and I had $70,000 of available trading capital. When your dad made his deposit my account had a trading capacity of over $2,000,000. With that kind of margin, I was able to turn $20,000 into over $160,000 in less than 9 months! I was making over $15,000 a month. As a teacher, at the time, I think I made about $2,700 a month. So, as you can imagine, I thought I was a genius! I was getting rich quick, right? Wrong. There’s no such thing as a free lunch. When your dad sold his share of stock being held in my account I was also forced to liquidate my own positions. I had bought call options on the future price of Apple stock, and the way that kind of trading works is that your money is locked until the future event you are betting on occurs. If you liquidate before a certain date there may be a penalty to pay. In my case, it was $35,000. After this, I had the good sense to step away for a moment, to cash out my chips and think about what came next. Also, I didn’t have a $2,000,000 trading desk anymore, and without the added margin, there was no way I could continue to trade the way I wanted to. I wanted to make medium to long term trades, because one of the first things I learned along the way is that short term trading (day-trading, scalping) is, for the most part, a scam. There are technical reasons for this, but trust me, short-term trading any market, be it cryptos, stocks, or commodities is a bad idea. You will lose money with an almost 100% guarantee. I walked away from the stock market in 2009 with $150,000 cash but no market to trade it in. So, I did the next best thing: I bought a nice new car (in cash), took a crazy trip to Europe, and consumed over $25,000 worth of shit I didn’t need, and when it was all said and done, I went back to teaching. I taught at an even poorer neighborhood this time. I had gang members in my class. There were arrests on a monthly basis. Some of the kids had psychological problems, emotional problems, learning disabilities, and many of them were being abused at home in one way or another. This was a middle school. Twelve year-olds. I did that job and others like it because I believe in morality and in helping people. That’s the reason I’m writing you this letter, because I want to help you, and I think it's the moral thing to do. And you’ll see what I mean by that when I tell you about cryptocurrencies and the blockchain later on. Anyway, during that year of teaching I discovered a new market to trade. One that would give me 100 to 1 leverage on my money. One where I could manage a $5,000,000 trading desk with only $50,000! That market is called FOREX, and its the global “fiat” currency market. It’s the opposite of the crypto market, which is the global “digital” currency market. More on what all that means later, but for now just understand that FOREX is the most liquid and highly traded market in the world. After the school-year ended in May of 2011, I took that summer off to research the FOREX market. I read many new books on trading, which were specific to the currency markets. I watched hundreds of hours of video on technical analysis and even more hours of “financial news,” which is mostly economic propaganda, but I won’t digress here. The point is that by late August of 2011, I was once again ready to dive head-first into trading. This time, I thought, it would be even better, because I’d have even more money to “play” with! This time, I thought, I’m going to get rich! I’ll stop here and tell you that the journey up until this point had not been the smoothest. While trading stocks there were many days when I lost hundreds, thousands, and even tens of thousands of dollars in hours, sometimes in minutes! You may imagine the added level of stress I had to deal with because I was trading with my entire life’s savings and my wife had just given birth to our son, Sebastian. He was a toddler at the time. I’ll give you a brief example of trading’s unpredictable nature, and the unpredictability of financial markets in general: I had spent several months preparing for my first live trade. I’d read many books and practiced my ass off until I thought I was ready. I had a system, a strategy. I was going to get rich, quick! The first week I traded stocks I lost $10,000 in 3 days. I will never be able to fully articulate what it feels like lose 50% of all the money you’ve ever had in less than 72 hours. All the while knowing that if you fail, it will be your family who suffers the most. You might be wondering: “Shit, why’d you do it?” or “Why’d you keep doing it?” That’s understandable. After all, my academic background is in history and political science, not finance and economics, not statistics. Well, cousin, I did it because I’m a cowboy. A risk-taker. I’ve always been one. I remember being four or five, at our grandfather’s farm, and lassoing calves in the cattle pen by myself. Men were around, but they let me do it. Although, in retrospect, some of those calves were twice my size and could have easily trampled me, I don’t ever remember feeling scared---I loved that shit! I remember sneaking out and walking down to the pond, then going up to the water’s edge to see if I could spot the caiman that lived there. I would even hurl rocks at it sometimes, just to see it move! Another time, I found myself alone in the dark with a 15-foot anaconda not more than a yard away, and all I could do was stare at it, not out of fear, but wonder. Again, in hindsight, probably not the best of ideas, but I’ve never been scared to follow the path laid out by my own curiosity. I am a natural risk-taker. I tell my city-slicker friends that it's because I come from a land of cowboys, where men are born tough and always ready for a challenge. Cowboys are risk-takers by nature, they have to be, the land demands it of them. There’ll be more on risk-taking and the role it plays a little later, but for now, let’s focus on FOREX and what I learned from it. After the school-year ended in May of 2011, I took that summer off to research the FOREX market. I read many new books on trading, which were specific to the currency markets. I watched hundreds of hours of video on technical analysis and even more hours of “financial news,” which is mostly economic propaganda, but I won’t digress here. The point is that by late August of 2011, I was once again ready to dive head-first into trading. This time, I thought, it would be even better, because I’d have even more money to “play” with! This time, I thought, I’m going to get rich! Trading FOREX was not easy. The hardest part was that it had to be done between 3:00 am - 11:00 am, because these are peak trading hours in London and New York, where the majority of the market’s money resides. This means major price moves, the price swings that can be traded, for the most part, happen during this time window. For me, this meant I had to live a type of quasi-vampiric lifestyle, waking up at 8:00 pm and going to sleep at noon, every day. At first, it takes a toll on your social life, and eventually starts to affect you mentally and emotionally. There is a certain degree of isolation that comes with it, too. You are awake when your friends and family are asleep, and asleep when they are awake. It can get lonely. However, my first six months of trading FOREX were OK. I wasn’t making $15,000 a month anymore, but I was making more than I would have been, had I been teaching. However, I had a deep-rooted feeling of uncertainty. Although I’d had some initial success in trading stocks, and now currencies, I’d always felt, at the back of my mind, that I’d just been lucky, and nothing more. This fear materialized itself in June of 2012 when the strategy I’d been using for some time was no longer profitable. I panicked. I started experimenting with new strategies, which only made matters worse, and lead to even more panic. It is no exaggeration to say that trading is one-third mathematical, and two-thirds psychological. No amount of books, videos, or paid mentorships, which I also consumed, had prepared me for this eventual reality check: I didn’t know what the fuck I was doing. I had no clue. I left FOREX humbled, with barely enough money to buy a decent car, much less trade any time soon. The next two years, 2013-2015, were some of the hardest of my life. Harder even than 1991-1993, which, up to that point, had been the worst couple years I’d ever experienced. Those were my first years in the United States, and they were full of hardship. A type of hardship I’d never experienced before, and never have since. Remember the school I mentioned? The one with the gangs and the troubled kids and all the poverty? Well, I attended schools just like that as a kid, too, until I turned 15. I had many more encounters with caimans and anacondas there, except now they had first names, and for some reason, were always more prone to strike! Anyway, those were tough times, but not as tough as the post-FOREX experience. Failure at FOREX took a mental toll on me. After all, I had gambled everything, my entire future on the bet that I could earn a living as a professional trader. I realized I had failed because of my own intellectual laziness. I always knew I had been lucky, and instead of using the wonderful gift of leisure-time the universe had granted me through that initial success to fill the knowledge gaps I knew would keep me from true and long-lasting success, I let my ego convince me otherwise, and talked myself into making decisions I knew to be extremely dangerous and outside my expertise. I wanted to wrestle the caiman! Cowboy shit. Irrational, youthful folly. Needless to say, I lost 80% of my account, which was also my family’s savings, in less than four months. Now, I had a real problem. How was I going to pay the bills? What was I going to do with my life? I was 30 years old, had a five-year old son, very little real-world work experience and a college degree in history and political science. How was I going to make money? Serious money? Enough money to help my mom retire and give my son all the advantages I never had? Enough to deliver on the promises I had made to my wife during all those years she put up with my crazy hours and wild ideas about getting rich quick? What was I going to do now? I tell you, cousin, these are the kinds of questions you will find yourself asking if you do not heed my advice. I didn’t want to teach anymore. I didn’t want to do anything anymore. I was depressed. I had what we call here in the United States, “a quarter-life crisis.” I abused alcohol and drugs to cope with the pain of my failure. I was weak. I was unprepared for the realities of life. I did not yet understand, even at 30 years old, that there is no such thing as a free lunch. I won’t dwell on the specifics of the hardships I endured during these two years, except to say that I almost lost it all, including my life, but I’m grateful I didn't. However, it was also during this period, 2013-2015, that I began to fill gaps in my knowledge about markets, economics, and the nature of money itself. Gaps I knew would need to be filled one way or another, if I was ever going to trade or invest in anything again. Luckily, towards the end of my FOREX days, I had come to realize there was something wrong with all the information I had been given by the mainstream media, specifically on the topics of economics and finance. I noticed that nothing they ever said about the markets turned out to be accurate, that mainstream financial “news” could not be trusted for investment purposes. It took tens of thousands of dollars in losses and several years of headaches before I learned that lesson. I’m glad I finally did. I decided to use the last bit of money I had left to buy some gold and silver (by this time I had begun to understand the definition of sound money) and to open up a brick and mortar business. I did not want to work for anyone else, only for myself. I wanted to be an entrepreneur. The trouble was that the only business I had enough money for was a mobile car wash. So, a friend and I bought a van, some pressure cleaners, a whole bunch of soap and got to work! We were going to hustle hard, work warehouse and shopping center parking lots, save enough to reinvest into our business and go after the luxury car market. We were going to charge rich people $1000s to detail Ferraris and Lamborghinis, and it was only going to take six months, tops! Great plan, no? Easy money, right? Well, we washed cars for exactly one day before we realized what a terrible mistake we had made. It turns out car-washing is a backbreaking, low-paying, and degrading business. There’s no free lunch, remember that. My friend and I were lucky. We quickly transitioned our business from a mobile car wash to a painting/pressure cleaning company, and had immediate success. In less than two months we were hired as subcontractors by a much larger company and I was more or less making what I had made teaching, but working for myself. After a couple of months, my partner and I were already envisioning the hiring of our first employees. Cool, right? No. About a year after we started the business, my partner, a high-school friend of mine, a guy I’d known for more than ten years, decided he didn’t want to do it anymore. That he was too tired of the hardships that come with that kind of work. Tired of making the constant sacrifices required to be successful in business. So, he quit. I lost everything I had invested, because without him, I could not operate the business on my own, and our corporate partner dropped us. I begged him not to quit. I told him that business takes time, that there’s no free lunch, and that we would be rewarded at some point for our hustle and hard work; that we would be able to hire laborers to do the work in less than 6 months, and that we would then focus on sales, and start to make some real money. He did not care. He had his own demons, and chose to steal from me and end our friendship instead of facing the hardship head-on. By this time, however, I was already used to failure, and although I was still coping with the mental stress of having failed at something I once had thought would be my profession, it still did not stop me from following my curiosity, as I always have. It was during these years that I first learned about Bitcoin. About blockchain. About the nature of money, economic history, the effects of monetary policy on financial markets. I’d wake up at 6:00 am every day, paint houses, pressure clean dirty sidewalks and walls, spend over 2 hours commuting back home every night, and then stay up for as long as my body would allow learning about macroeconomics and the history of markets. I researched the nature of debt and gold a medium of exchange. I read about counter and Austrian economics. I became a libertarian, later, an anarchist, and, after almost two years study, I began to discover legitimate sources of financial news and information, intelligent voices that I could trust. I had acquired enough knowledge and experience to discern the truth from the propaganda, and it was during these same years, these terrible times of hardship, that I finally learned a most valuable lesson on money and markets: capital preservation is the key. Remember, when I said we’d come back to risk-taking? Well, the trick is not to take it, but to manage it. The secret is education, knowledge. Knowledge truly is, power. Traders are only as successful as the depth of their own knowledge, because it's the only way to keep in check that inherent, paralyzing fear which “playing” with money eventually engenders. As a trader, you must have complete confidence in your “playing” abilities, and this is something only achieved through much study and practice. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, ever. I want you to know that Bitcoin, the blockchain, and cryptocurrencies are NOT get-rich-quick schemes. They are NOT Ponzi schemes either. They are cutting-edge financial technology, and an emerging asset class. The blockchain has been compared to the agricultural revolution of the Neolithic age and the invention of writing by ancient Mesopotamians, in terms of its importance and potential impact on human civilization. It is a technology which will eventually affect and reshape almost every single industry in the global economy. In the next two decades, all types of industries will be impacted and disrupted by this technology--banking, real estate, healthcare, the legal industry, politics, education, venture capital, just to name a few! This technology allows for something called “decentralized store of value.” Basically, it allows for the creation of an alternative financial system, one where power resides in the hands of the people, instead of corrupt governments and corporations, so that currency crises like the one Venezuela has recently experienced, may one day be completely eradicated, like polio, or bubonic plague. I will tell you that, at 17 years old, you have an amazing opportunity to set yourself up for incredible success in this brand new industry called the blockchain. There are entire professions that will be birthed into existence in the next 5, 10, and 20 years, in the same way the internet made possible millions of people around the world to work from home, wearing their pajamas, doing a million different things--things which were unimaginable to those who knew the world before the advent of the internet. Of course, it will require a great deal of work and effort on your part, but I assure you, it will be totally worth it! Today, I am 35 years old. I run a successful ghostwriting business that I manage from the comfort of my own home. I invest exclusively in Bitcoin and precious metals, and hope to retire by the time I’m 40. Well, not really retire, but start on a much-anticipated new phase of my life, one in which I don’t have to worry about financial independence anymore. To that end, cousin, here is my advice:
Forget about getting rich quick. There’s no free lunch!
Learn the English language, it is one of the tools you'll need for success.
Work or go to school. Either way, dedicate yourself to learning about this new technology as much as you can, and begin to save, as much as you can, in Bitcoin.
I reviewed the website you told me about, [[link]3 , and while I respect, and to a certain extent admire what those gentlemen are doing, I can tell you, unequivocally, that taking those courses won’t turn you into a trader. It won’t make you rich quick. Far from it. In fact, there is nothing that these "warriors" will teach you, that you could not teach yourself for free at [[link]4 . I’ll end it here. Hopefully, you made it to the end and took away a nugget or two. Please feel free to ask me anything you want about any of it, cousin. I’m always here to help. ''' Hurling Rocks at Caimans: A Cowboy's Tale Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: mine_myownbiz13 1: ww*.cri*toguerre*os*c**/ 2: w*w***bypips.com/ 3: www.criptoguerreros.com]^^1 4: www.babypips.com]^^2 Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
FTMO Challenge. Challenge is the most important part of FTMO, to be frank, the whole business revolves around the challenge. Challenge is a two-step evaluation process, which is a way of vetting forex traders before anyone is offered any funding. Two steps are the Challenge and the Verification stages. the forex challenge Wednesday, May 29, 2013. automated trading. so how would we do it..... //-----therealthing appears to be a manual trader.... it's my belief a good manual trader can beat the best ea trader over the course of a year..... if you study his posts and blogs you can get an idea of how he feels the challenge might be done..... Lastly this is my personal journal documenting my trading as I attempt the $409k challenge. I have no problems with constructive criticism, positive advice and suggestions etc, but I will not tolerate any negativity or attitude. If you want to post in my journal please respect it if not then I will have to remove you. Thanks. Hi Nial, I don’t know of any other forex site that delivers such great content and value to the reader as you do with your site. You outlined a great challenge to get going in 2013. Highly appreciated. Reply The Best Forex Indicator For Currency Traders – 100% Accurate System Free Download What Is Forex Trading For Beginners?(Nepali Tutorial) फोरेक्स ट्रेडिंग Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategy $100 Scalping Forex Challenge – TESTED 100 TIMES + SURPRISE
Join our Trading Room and let m know how did you do with the challenge: https://bit.ly/2DzHXxU Forex trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme. By following my ... Challenge continues in Singapore and Philippines. ... Published on Aug 28, 2013. ... 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula ... Forex trading competition, contestant made $1.4 million in one month! My result was only about $13000, You can see all results here - https://www.tallinex.co... Green Beret's Ultralight Bug Out Bag with Gear Recommendations - Duration: 18:54. The Gray Bearded Green Beret Recommended for you Glad this video helped, no more products for sale no more courses either, study the videos they will teach you everything you need to become a 6 and 7 figure...
