Roland "THE ROARIN MAC" McGuillaman has released his top rated UFC 245 Picks!
UFC 245 Odds, Preview & Expert Predictions
UFC Betting News
This Saturday’s UFC 245 card from Las Vegas is arguably the event of the year in mixed martial arts with not just one championship fight or even two but a very rare three title fights on tap. Here’s a quick look at each with the latest UFC odds.
UFC 245 Odds, Preview & Expert Predictions

• When: Saturday, 10 PM ET (main card)
• Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
• Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

Kamara Usman (15-1) vs. Colby Covington (15-1)

• UFC 245 Odds: Usman -180

Usman is a -170 favorite to defend his welterweight title with Covington, a former interim champion, at +140. Usman enters with a 10-0 record in the UFC and 14 consecutive victories overall. Last time out, he claimed the title by completely dismantling Tyron Woodley. With the interim champion Covington on bad terms with the UFC and eventually stripped, Usman managed to step into the void and get his title shot.
Woodley was never in the fight. Outside of an exciting two-way brawl in the final minute of Round 4 in which Woodley was lucky to finish, the fight was all Usman thanks to his relentless pressure. The native of Nigeria took home a unanimous decision (50-44 twice, 50-45) to halt Woodley’s title reign at four defenses. Colby was ringside with a championship belt over his shoulder.
Covington has won seven straight fights, including back-to-back defeats of Rafael Dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler. Covington strutted into the cage vs. Lawler and went to work by scoring a partial takedown in the opening minute. This set the pace for the entire fight. Covington’s performance was so impressive that after the finish, he celebrated by the fence, staring at the Trump family, and received a thumbs up from Donald Trump Jr.
Some Background
Both Usman and Covington were college wrestlers; Covington competed at NCAA Division I level and Usman at Division II. Covington averages 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. His takedown defense is an impressive 78%. Usman averages 3.96 takedowns per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 50%. Usman’s takedown defense is 100%.
Both guys have gone to decision eight times, with Usman picking up six knockouts and one submission and Covington picking up two knockouts and five submissions. While Covington’s fight against Lawler showed a new level of striking that should serve him well in the long run, things seem to have finally clicked with Usman in his last two appearances.

Max Holloway (21-4) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (20-1)

• UFC 245 Odds: ALEX VOLKANOVSKI +150

Holloway is the featherweight champion and a -170 favorite over Volkanovski, who fights a UFC title fight for the first time and is +140. Holloway has won an unprecedented 13 straight fights in the featherweight division. He has dominated at 145 pounds for five years.
Holloway admits now that he must leave featherweight in the future if he wants to achieve his ultimate goals. Earlier this year, Holloway did make his first move up a division. He fought Dustin Poirier for the interim lightweight title at UFC 236 on April 13, falling by unanimous decision.
Holloway is coming off a lopsided five-round verdict over Frankie Edgar in his most recent title defense at UFC 240. If he beats Volkanovski, it’ll be Holloway’s fourth title defense. In total, he has won five straight title fights at 145 pounds and has held a belt — either interim or undisputed — in the weight class since 2016.
Volkanovski is on a 17-fight winning streak that includes seven triumphs in the UFC. Most recently, the 30-year-old Aussie earned a dominant decision triumph over longtime former champion Jose Aldo at UFC 237. On paper, the former featherweight king seemed like a nightmare matchup for Volkanovski. Aldo is one of the best defensive wrestlers in the history of the sport, but Volkanovski fought against type by using an impressive inside-outside combination of leg kicks and clinch work that neutralized Aldo.
Alexander “The Great” also owns notable victories against Chad Mendes and Darren Elkins in UFC competition. He has scored 14 finishes in his 20 wins and may be one of the more well-rounded fighters Holloway has faced in recent bouts.

Amanda Nunes (18-4) vs. Germaine de Randamie (9-3)

• UFC 245 Odds: GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE +240

Nunes is considered the top female fighter on the planet and the -300 favorite to defend her bantamweight title against de Randamie, who is +240. These two fought in November 2013 and Nunes won by first-round TKO.
The last time Nunes suffered a loss was in 2014, when she was knocked out by Cat Zingano. Since then, she has racked up nine straight victories. Since losing to Nunes, de Randamie has piled up five consecutive victories.
Nunes is one of just four fighters to reign in two UFC divisions simultaneously, and none has defended both titles. In the past, two-division champions such as Conor McGregor and Daniel Cormier have relinquished one of their titles due to inactivity. The same fate could eventually befall bantamweight and flyweight king Henry Cejudo.
Nunes, who has made four defenses of the 135-pound title she won from Miesha Tate in 2016, added the 145-pound belt last December when she knocked out Cris Cyborg. Nunes said she initially wanted Saturday’s title bout to be at featherweight, the division where de Randamie briefly was champion in 2017. But de Randamie, who has fought her last two fights at bantamweight, wanted to challenge at 135 pounds. If Nunes wins here, she then wants to defend her featherweight belt.
Out of de Randamie’s nine career wins, four have come via stoppage and all were by KO or TKO.
Expert UFC 245 Betting Picks
Usman by decision, Holloway by decision, and De Randamie +240 by stoppage.EXCLUSIVE EASY UFC 245 EARLY
MONEY MMA PICK (DEC 14) - (ALEX VOLKANOVSKI +150)
EXCLUSIVE UFC 245 EASY EARLY MONEY MMA PICK (DEC 14) - (KAMARU USMAN -165)
EXCLUSIVE EASY UFC 245 EARLY MONEY MMA PICK (DEC 14) - (GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE +240)

Roland "THE ROARIN MAC" McGuillaman has released his top rated UFC 245 Picks!

UFC 245 Odds, Preview & Expert Predictions

UFC Betting News
This Saturday’s UFC 245 card from Las Vegas is arguably the event of the year in mixed martial arts with not just one championship fight or even two but a very rare three title fights on tap. Here’s a quick look at each with the latest UFC odds.

UFC 245 Odds, Preview & Expert Predictions

• When: Saturday, 10 PM ET (main card)
• Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
• Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

Kamara Usman (15-1) vs. Colby Covington (15-1)

• UFC 245 Odds: Usman -180

Usman is a -170 favorite to defend his welterweight title with Covington, a former interim champion, at +140. Usman enters with a 10-0 record in the UFC and 14 consecutive victories overall. Last time out, he claimed the title by completely dismantling Tyron Woodley. With the interim champion Covington on bad terms with the UFC and eventually stripped, Usman managed to step into the void and get his title shot.
Woodley was never in the fight. Outside of an exciting two-way brawl in the final minute of Round 4 in which Woodley was lucky to finish, the fight was all Usman thanks to his relentless pressure. The native of Nigeria took home a unanimous decision (50-44 twice, 50-45) to halt Woodley’s title reign at four defenses. Colby was ringside with a championship belt over his shoulder.
Covington has won seven straight fights, including back-to-back defeats of Rafael Dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler. Covington strutted into the cage vs. Lawler and went to work by scoring a partial takedown in the opening minute. This set the pace for the entire fight. Covington’s performance was so impressive that after the finish, he celebrated by the fence, staring at the Trump family, and received a thumbs up from Donald Trump Jr.

Some Background

Both Usman and Covington were college wrestlers; Covington competed at NCAA Division I level and Usman at Division II. Covington averages 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. His takedown defense is an impressive 78%. Usman averages 3.96 takedowns per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 50%. Usman’s takedown defense is 100%.
Both guys have gone to decision eight times, with Usman picking up six knockouts and one submission and Covington picking up two knockouts and five submissions. While Covington’s fight against Lawler showed a new level of striking that should serve him well in the long run, things seem to have finally clicked with Usman in his last two appearances.

Max Holloway (21-4) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (20-1)

• UFC 245 Odds: ALEX VOLKANOVSKI +150

Holloway is the featherweight champion and a -170 favorite over Volkanovski, who fights a UFC title fight for the first time and is +140. Holloway has won an unprecedented 13 straight fights in the featherweight division. He has dominated at 145 pounds for five years.
Holloway admits now that he must leave featherweight in the future if he wants to achieve his ultimate goals. Earlier this year, Holloway did make his first move up a division. He fought Dustin Poirier for the interim lightweight title at UFC 236 on April 13, falling by unanimous decision.
Holloway is coming off a lopsided five-round verdict over Frankie Edgar in his most recent title defense at UFC 240. If he beats Volkanovski, it’ll be Holloway’s fourth title defense. In total, he has won five straight title fights at 145 pounds and has held a belt — either interim or undisputed — in the weight class since 2016.
Volkanovski is on a 17-fight winning streak that includes seven triumphs in the UFC. Most recently, the 30-year-old Aussie earned a dominant decision triumph over longtime former champion Jose Aldo at UFC 237. On paper, the former featherweight king seemed like a nightmare matchup for Volkanovski. Aldo is one of the best defensive wrestlers in the history of the sport, but Volkanovski fought against type by using an impressive inside-outside combination of leg kicks and clinch work that neutralized Aldo.
Alexander “The Great” also owns notable victories against Chad Mendes and Darren Elkins in UFC competition. He has scored 14 finishes in his 20 wins and may be one of the more well-rounded fighters Holloway has faced in recent bouts.

Amanda Nunes (18-4) vs. Germaine de Randamie (9-3)

• UFC 245 Odds: GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE +240

Nunes is considered the top female fighter on the planet and the -300 favorite to defend her bantamweight title against de Randamie, who is +240. These two fought in November 2013 and Nunes won by first-round TKO.
The last time Nunes suffered a loss was in 2014, when she was knocked out by Cat Zingano. Since then, she has racked up nine straight victories. Since losing to Nunes, de Randamie has piled up five consecutive victories.
Nunes is one of just four fighters to reign in two UFC divisions simultaneously, and none has defended both titles. In the past, two-division champions such as Conor McGregor and Daniel Cormier have relinquished one of their titles due to inactivity. The same fate could eventually befall bantamweight and flyweight king Henry Cejudo.
Nunes, who has made four defenses of the 135-pound title she won from Miesha Tate in 2016, added the 145-pound belt last December when she knocked out Cris Cyborg. Nunes said she initially wanted Saturday’s title bout to be at featherweight, the division where de Randamie briefly was champion in 2017. But de Randamie, who has fought her last two fights at bantamweight, wanted to challenge at 135 pounds. If Nunes wins here, she then wants to defend her featherweight belt.
Out of de Randamie’s nine career wins, four have come via stoppage and all were by KO or TKO.

Expert UFC 245 Betting Picks

Usman by decision, Holloway by decision, and De Randamie +240 by stoppage.EXCLUSIVE EASY UFC 245 EARLY
MONEY MMA PICK (DEC 14) - (ALEX VOLKANOVSKI +150)
EXCLUSIVE UFC 245 EASY EARLY MONEY MMA PICK (DEC 14) - (KAMARU USMAN -165)
EXCLUSIVE EASY UFC 245 EARLY MONEY MMA PICK (DEC 14) - (GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE +240)

As most of you probably already know, Jon Jones reclaimed his spot as #1 P4P on the UFC and /MMA rankings, much to the approval of seemingly the entire subreddit. I personally don't think it's so cut and dried as most people here seem to think, here's why.
Now, the soul of every P4P debate is subjectivity, even the definition of the term isn't agreed upon, here is the criteria that I, personally measure fighters on:

1. Quality of wins (How good the fighters they beat are)
   
2. Margins of wins (How dominantly they won)
   

Pretty simple, right? Going by these parameters, let's breakdown the best three wins of who I, personally consider to be the best five fighters in MMA.
Jon Jones - Cormier, Gustafsson, Teixeira
I chose these three as they are the only true 205-lbers who can be said to have been in their primes when Jones defeated them, all his other opponents (bar one who I'll get to later on) have either been middleweights masquerading as light-heavweights (Machida, Chael etc.) or light-heavyweights who were obviously past their best (Shogun, Rampage etc.).
As for the one, Rashad Evans, I mused on whether to include him in the top three or Teixeira, they both lost to less than stellar opponents after fighting Jones. Evans to Little Nog and Texeira to Phil Davis, I included Teixeira as I consider Davis to be the less embarrassing loss, if only marginally.
As for the quality of these wins, Cormier is obviously the most impressive of the three, being both a top heavy and light-heavyweight. Cormier can pretty much beat every other fighter in the division. A+
Gustaffson was thought by few to be a championship caliber fighter going into 165, with the shell of Mauricio Rua being the best win on his record. After fighting Jones Gus went on to get eviscerated by Rumble and thouroughly worked by Cormier. Not especially encouraging considering how close Jones came to losing to him, but we'll get to that later.
Teixeira is a decent opponent, his best win being Ryan Bader, although that was back when Ryan Bader was losing to guys like Tito Ortiz. Teixeria has mostly been relegated to gatekeeper status, a role he seems to fit well.
Now for the margins Jones won by, the first three rounds of his fights with DC were extremely competitive, with the fight looking like it could go either way going into the fourth. Unfortunately for DC his gas tank was not up to the task, and Jones took over, taking DC down in the process, a feat few expected him to be able to perfom (Although a feat that seems impressive considering Gustaffson, a fighter with no formal wrestling background and no elite wrestlers as training partners was also able to take DC down). Not the most dominant victory, but a decisive one nonetheless. The consensus score is 49-46.
Debating the scoring for the Jones/Gustaffson fight online is like opening a can of Alaskan Bull Worms. After 165 people were absolutely certain that Gus got robbed at gunpoint, then they thought the fight could have gone either way, and now it seems that Jones clearly won and everyone who thinks otherwise is blinded by their hatred of Jones. Regardless, the fight itself has not changed, you can watch it yourself and make up your own mind. It is the belief of many that Jones came within one missed elbow of losing the title. Nonetheless, the elbow did land and Jones recieved the nod. Unfortunately, looking at the inhuman amounts of punishment absorbed by Gus in his fights against JBJ, DC and Rumble, and looking at the careers of fighters like Gray Maynard and Junior Dos Santos, it is uncertain whether we will ever see the Alexander Gustafsson of UFC 165 again, meaning Jones may never get to silence the critics with a more decisive victory in a rematch.
Not much to say about the Teixeira fight. 50-45, Jones never looked in trouble, good stuff. Although Jones' infamous use of eye pokes were at their most prevalent in this fight.
On to the next fighter...
Demetrious Johnson - Benavidez, McCall, Dodson
Now, DJ has fought all three of these guys multiple times, although I will only be judging him by the most recent fights. After all, we are trying to rank the DJ of 2016, not 2012.
I believe Benavidez to be the Daniel Cormier of flyweight, given that they both had successful runs at the division above their natural one. With Benavidez even managing to take the great Dominick Cruz to a split decision. Like DC, Benavidez is also able to defeat every other fighter in his division besides the champ.
Not much to say about McCall, top flyweight, also had a competitive fight with Cruz. Good stuff.
Dodson is the Rumble of flyweights, with his explosiveness and K.O. power, he's also beaten top flyweights like Zach Makovsky and John Moraga and even knocked out T.J. Dillashaw.
Here's where I believe DJ starts to pull away from Jones; the margins of his victories.
While Jones took DC to a competitive decision, Demetrious Johnson knocked Benavidez out cold in the very first round, and this was at the peak of Duane Ludwig's envolvment with TAM, probably the pinnacle of Benavidez's prime. You also have to consider this is at the lightest weight class, where knockouts are at their least common, making it even more impressive.
Also not much to say about DJ's second fight with McCall. Pretty much outclassed in every facet of the game, even knocked him down for good measure.
DJ vs. Dodson II was as clean a clinic as it gets. Here is where I really felt DJ cemented his status as the new GSP, making dangerous killers looks basic. I will always love that moment where Dodson kicks DJ square in the bollocks, only for DJ to implore Herb Dean to get out of the way so he can continue pressuring Dodson.
Next fighter.
Conor McGregor - Aldo, Mendes, Poirer
McGregor has the very best win out of anyone here, that being Jose Aldo, who was riding a 17-fight, 10-year unbeaten streak with seven title defenses. Unbelievable.
Mendes is also a top win, having taken Aldo to a hard-fought decision, he's also looked pretty much unstoppable against anyone outside the top 3.
Poirer may not be the best opponent, but he was still a top 5 featherweight, and is now shaping up to be quite the killer at lightweight.
As if having the best quality win here wasn't enough, Conor's defeat of Aldo was also the most decisive. This fight literally couldn't have gone any better from Conor's perspective.
Mendes may have only had two weeks to prepare for his fight against McGregor, but it's not like Conor was 100% going into that fight either. Even with a bum knee and getting wrestlefucked for the first two rounds, Conor weathered the storm and finished the gassed Mendes.
You know you're a special fighter when a 1 minute 46 second knockout against a top 5 opponent doesn't look that impressive when compared to your other achievements, and that's the case for Conor's win over Dustin Poirer.
Now onto my pick for the most underrated fighter in terms of P4P rankings...
Rafael Dos Anjos - Pettis, Cerrone, Henderson
I remember in the leadup to 185, many people thought Pettis would reign as champion for many years. Having filled the holes in his game exposed by Clay Guida, it was hard to fathom a fighter capable of overcoming his unmatched striking and jiu-jitsu so slick even spending a few moments on the ground with him being a death sentence.
Not only is Cerrone a deadly striker, being undefeated at 28-0 as a professional kickboxer, he also posses one of the best ground games in the division, which he showed off against Myles Jury. Cerrone went into his second fight with RDA riding one of the longest winning streaks in the UFC at that time, including wins over the likes of Benson Henderson and Eddie Alvarez.
Benson Henderson was the former champ and once held a spot in the top five of the pound for pound rankings, Bendo has also since started a successful run at welterweight.
As you can see, RDA has gone through a murderer's row of opponents, what makes it more impressive is the manner in which he's won. He's made it look easy.
Pettis is the only one out of the three that RDA did not finish in the first round, possibly due to the fact that RDA went into the fight with a bum knee, the injury was apparently serious enough that his manager implored him to pull out of the fight, which is just insane. At no point was this fight anything close to competitive, RDA thouroughly dismantled Pettis in all facets of MMA. ' Not much to say about the Bendo and Cowboy fights, RDA finished both in devastating finishes early in the first round.
If RDA doesn't have the strongest top three, then it has to be this guy.
Luke Rockhold - Weidman, Machida, Jacare
Prior to his fight with Luke Rockhold, Weidman held a firm grasp on the #3 spot on the p4p rankings, with his unblemished record, elite All-American wrestling background and slick jiu-jitsu skills. Weidman had also never been outstruck in his career, despite facing some of the best strikers ever seen in MMA like Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida.
Being #1 light-heavyweight contendor, Machida decided to move down to middleweight after losing a highly controversial decision to Phil Davis, after dismantling two then top-10 opponents in Munoz and Moussasi, Machida then gave champ Chris Weidman his toughest fight so far.
The debate on who has the best ground game in MMA is a hot one indeed. Is it Damien Maia? Is it Fabricio Werdum? In my opinion it's Jacare Souza, being a three-time world champion in jiu-jitsu and a two-time world champion is submission grappling, Jacare has wins over some of the absolute best grapplers to ever walk planet Earth such as Marcelo Garcia and Roger Gracie. As if this wasn't enough, Jacare also possesses devastating one-punch knockout power and is one of the most athletic middleweights around.
And here we get to the reason why I personally would rank RDA above Rockhold; RDA has simply been far more dominant in his victories.
Prior to 194, the general opinion on this subreddit seemed to be that Chris Weidman was some kind of hammerless Norse god, who could never be defeated by mortal men. My opinion however, was that -on paper- Weidman/Rockhold is as close to a fifty-fifty fight I've ever seen, and that it would be extremely competitive, which it indeed turned out to be. With the fight being neck and neck going into the third. However, after Rockhold spent a large portion of the latter-half of the first round squeezing on Weidman's neck in an ultimately fruitless guillotine and hammering Weidman's body with pin-point kicks, Weidman's cardio began to come into question. Eventuallly Weidman threw an amateurish spinning back kick out of desperation, leaving a huge opening for Rockhold to take him down and, using his evidently far superior ground skills, effortlessly bassed Weidman's guard into full mount and proceeded to dish out a tremendous beating in what I consider to be one of the few 10-7 rounds in MMA. With it later coming to light that Rockhold was in fact battling an infection and taking a course of antibiotics during this fight, it certainly makes one wonder how a rematch with Rockhold at 100% would play out.
I'll be honest, in the leadup to Machida/Rockhold, I didn't think Rockhold stood a chance, I even went so far as to advise my friends to take advantage of Machida's status as betting underdog to make a quick buck. I mistake I have yet to hear the end of. After struggling to find his timing for the first few minutes, Rockhold clipped Machida with a short right hand which sent him to the ground, he wouldn't get up until the end of the round, and only while looking like the ghost of the man who had entered the octagon four minutes ago. Machida's corner absorbed much well-deserved criticism for subjecting Machida to unnecessary punishment in round 2.
The scoring of the Rockhold/Jacare fight is a subject of debate, the general consensus does seem to be that Rockhold deserved the win, and the FightMetric numbers certainly seem to favor Rockhold. Make of that what you will.
So there you have it, judging by these parameters, Jones might actually have the weakest claim to P4P king. Now I realise there are other methods people like to use to decide P4P rankings, the most prevelant of which probably being the old "If everyone was the same size, who would win?". Which, while being an incredibly flawed and needlessly subjective system, also does not do much to help JBJ's case, given that, if everyone in the UFC WAS the same size, it would strip Jon of his most valuable weapons, them being his enourmous frame and freakishly large reach. Think about it, how would a rematch between a hypothetical 5'10" Jones and Daniel Cormier turn out?
One argument people use to justify having Jones above Mighty Mouse is the strength of divisions, apparently 125 is far too thin to make being its champion an impressive feat. Well I say that since the decayed, zombified husks of Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson are still top-10 light-heavyweights in 2016, 205 has no right to call any kettles black.
TL;DR I don't think the debate on who the best P4P fighter is is as clear cut as everyone else seems to.
Let me know what you guys think.