Sports Scores and Odds Covers

The Ivy League Tournament is now in its second year, where the top four teams in the conference of 8 battle it out for the auto-bid. Here's how each team makes the conference tournament, by record (Note: all of this is from playing around on http://bball.notnothing.net/ivy.php?sport=mbb):

Yale

Yale has two benefits. First, the Ivy League tournament is not at the Palestra, but at Yale's home court. Second, they're the best in the league right now, both in record and KenPom. They're currently 76 in KenPom, and the next closest is Harvard at 119. They have star player Miye Oni, who is the 50th overall in the NBA Draft according to ESPN and who really is the X-factor that will most likely carry this team into the NCAA Tournament as a higher than average seed for the Ivy League.
How they make it: Literally win a game. They're at 7-1, and hold the head to head record against Penn and Brown, the two teams at 3-5 that could overtake Yale. In fact, there are scenarios like this one in which Yale makes it despite losing every single remaining game. Basically, Yale is a lock.
How they miss it: Lose every single game, and Penn or Brown gets to 8 wins.

Harvard

Harvard is sitting comfortably at 6-2 and second in KenPom, with their only losses being, inexplicably, Dartmouth and Cornell. The team spreads out its scoring across the whole team and every player is a threat, but look out for Bryce Aiken, who has been coming alive to the tune of 21.6 points per game recently. They are notably the only team that has beaten Yale in the conference, and are the best bet for an upset come conference tournament time.
How they make it: Win 2 games. Better yet, win 3. They are favored in every game they play except for one against Yale, so this shouldn't be an issue. Winning 3 leaves them at 9-5, where no other team can beat them in round-robin or head to head record. Even this convoluted mess of 9-5 records results in Harvard getting in. Harvard should have no problem getting to 3 games. Even if Harvard wins just 2 games, if they end up next to either Princeton, Penn, or Cornell at 8-6, they will take home the number 4 spot based on round-robin victory (despite losses to both Penn and Princeton).
How they miss it: Win only 2 games. Here's where it gets dicey. If any other team finishes 8-6 along with Harvard, Harvard gets in (the exception is Cornell, who can beat Harvard and therefore claim the head-to-head). However, there exists a path where Penn, Princeton, and Cornell finish 9-5, like here, which will boot 8-6 Harvard. To be safe, Harvard has to win 3 (and make the one against Cornell count).

Cornell

To say no one expected Cornell to be at this point would be an understatement. They are the second-lowest Ivy team in KenPom, at a lowly 215 (Unsurprisingly, 17th overall in Luck). Amazingly, Cornell's been able to knock off Harvard and Penn, and went the distance in a 98-92 loss to Yale last weekend. They're anchored by their star player Matt Morgan, who is near the top of almost all the 3pt leaderboards for Div 1. Lately, he's been supported by Jimmy Boeheim (the less successful one) and they've been able to claw their way to 5-3.
How they make it: Win games they aren't supposed to. Currently, Cornell is forecasted to win ONE out of the last six games at Dartmouth. If Cornell wins two more past that, they're in. The most realistic win to pick up would be Brown on March 2nd, but here's where the trouble comes in. Cornell needs to win one against either Penn, Princeton, or Yale. They've already beat Penn once, so this may be the path to the 3rd or 4th seed and setting up a rematch against Yale.
How they miss it: Lose expected games and regress to the mean. Or, bizarrely, beat Brown, Dartmouth, and instead of Yale, Princeton, or Penn, beat Harvard. Since Cornell will have to lose to Penn and Princeton, they will lose the tiebreak to both of them, ending at the first one out. It's gonna be an uphill battle.

Princeton

A really up-and-down season for the team that started out at 4-0, sweeping Penn, before dropping 3 straight and barely squeaking by Dartmouth to land at 5-3. They have real talent in Devin Cannady, who is near the top of the school's all-time scorers, but he's gone cold recently, and the team has no other offensive identity. This is a team on the downswing.
How they make it: Win the games they're supposed to. They have a surprisingly easy schedule coming up, with winnable games against Cornell, Columbia, and Brown to get them to 8-6 and good enough for a 3-seed. They have to rediscover the offense that swept Penn, and find it fast.
How they miss it: Lose to Cornell. Literally. There exists a scenario where Cornell beats Princeton, and gains the 4 seed on head-to-head at 7-7. Otherwise, they have a good chance of making the conference tournament based on their weak schedule.

Brown

Not a lot to say here. The team had a monumental earlier performance against San Diego State but has flagged elsewhere, losing close games against Yale but then being blown out by Harvard and Penn. They just can't seem to hang on, and sit at 3-5.
How they make it: Win 5 of 6. This is the thinnest of margins of error. If they win 4, Penn and Cornell win out on round-robin record. Brown is currently forecasted to beat Cornell, Columbia, and Dartmouth, but need to pick up two somehow against Princeton, Penn, and Harvard. If they replicate that San Diego State magic though, who knows.
How they miss it: Win 4 or less.

Penn

Much like Cornell, this was a massive surprise. Penn is 3rd in KenPom in the Ivy League (at 133), and has the best OOC win in the league, the big upset of Villanova (Penn completed the Big 5 sweep this year, beating Nova, La Salle, Temple, and St. Joes). Since then, however, it's been a massive drop-off. Being swept by Princeton and the subsequent losses to Harvard, Yale, and even Cornell has put the team in a precarious position at 3-5 when they seemed to have the most chance for postseason success.
How they make it: Win 5 of 6. This is surprisingly not difficult, as that they're forecasted to win exactly that many. They play Brown, Cornell, Columbia, and Dartmouth, which they should win. They just need to pick up either Harvard or Yale. Despite the margin, Penn is in a good place.
How they miss it: Lose to Cornell. Again, Cornell has the head-to-head, and would take the 4 seed at a lowly 7-7. Winning 4 or less spells disaster.

Dartmouth

Never say never! Despite being 2-6, there's a chance! And it's not impossible, most of Dartmouth's games this year have been close, down to a single possession. Who knows?
How they make it: Win all 6. Not impossible, but very difficult. Their last 6 are against all of the league except Harvard, who they've beaten already. It's time for Dartmouth to make a pyramid of suck across the league, laying waste everywhere.
How they miss it: Lose.

Columbia

They only have beaten Cornell, but not for a lack of trying. There was a spectacular 3OT loss against Harvard that shows they have the mettle. Unfortunately, mettle means little for record.
How they make it: Huh. If Columbia wins out and everyone else wins and loses the games they are slated to, 1-6 could become 7-7 and enough for a 4 seed over Penn, who they would have to beat. Anything is possible probably...
How they miss it: Lose.
Bottom Line: It's probably gonna be Yale, Harvard, Princeton, Penn, but there's a chance for anyone to get into the conference tournament.