The streets had heavy fog this morning, the kind where houses are vague shadows, even invisible, from the sidewalk. On impulse, I went walking just before dawn. I knew I'd come home dew-sticky and stuffy-nosed, but I hoped—feared—I'd see the naked woman again. So I pulled on tights, shorts, and a sweat shirt, and set out in the chill.
She usually appears only on the very darkest nights. But twice before I'd found her in heavy dawn fog; it seems all that matters is that I can't see her until I'm practically standing beside her. Her skin looks ash-gray in fog, her hair all the colors of tree bark and leaf mold.
She's very beautiful, tall and willowy, but there's nothing erotic about her nakedness, any more than there is to a naked squirrel—or bare stone. Clothes simply don't belong on her. Still, I'd long ago decided to let her take me if she tried; as much as I love my wife, the tall woman has an undeniable magnetism. It's why I keep looking for her, why I don't run away.
Because she terrifies me, too. For one thing, I know she's not real. Not in the sense that I'm real—that a drunk driver could whiz down the street and leave me dangling broken in someone's crepe myrtle like a weird early Halloween decoration. A car could pass right through her; or perhaps I should say she wouldn't notice it.
On the other hand, she's more than real. Now and then, we all have the feeling we're in the presence of something larger than ourselves. I had it at my sister's college graduation, overcome that two hundred kids were about to go out and try to rebuild the world. I had it last summer when the Arkansas River flooded, watching the muddy water spread half a mile through my grandmother's neighborhood, to stop literally at her doorstep. At a Black Lives Matter protest this summer, gathered with hundreds of people, I had it twice over, suddenly knowing two things: We could actually cause change, if enough of us worked together—and a tenth of us could be dead by fall, if the coronavirus kept getting worse.
All by herself, the naked woman gives me that feeling. She's larger than her physical body. She's more than I can see with my eyes, or touch with my hands—if I dared touch her.
She reminds me of nights in the country growing up, looking at thousands and thousands of stars, feeling how immense the space out there is. I never felt small, the way some people say they do; I always knew I was unique, and that even if I didn't matter to my brat brother, I mattered to myself. But the stars and the sky were larger than I was.
So is she.
I'd call her a nature spirit, except that I feel she belongs in the city, amid trees with their low branches neatly pruned, not to stunt the grass with their shade or block the view out the picture windows. She belongs with the crepe myrtles and brick driveways, the jonquil beds and the carefully manicured lawns. Her feet were made to spring from asphalt to grass, her hair to whip in the breeze from passing cars. The only thing that doesn't fit the city is her need for darkness, for concealment.
She's a secret. A mystery of the city.
Dark nights in the country are different from the city. In the country, all the light comes from outside, from the moon and stars; the darkest nights are the cloudy ones, the heavy overcast that brings pounding rain—now and then a tornado. In town, overcast nights are the brightest, the city's glare bottled in and mirrored down. On a cloudy night the orange sky shines bright enough I can read a book in my back yard.
In town, the dark nights are the clearest, most cloudless ones, when a few dim stars—Vega, Antares, the Dippers sometimes—flicker up high, but the city glare is just a faint glow around the horizon. The moon is down; Venus has set with the sun; Jupiter and Saturn are pinpoints illuminating nothing.
Those were the nights I'd first seen the naked woman, when I walked in the cool middle night, when most of the town was in bed and few cars brought their headlights to ruin my night vision. Becky, fearful of cars, bought me a fancy color-changing LED harness to wear, but I always turn it off as soon as I'm out of sight of our house. I like the darkness, hate the colorful aura the harness casts around me.
Walking the midnight streets, making my way from porch light to street light to deep tree-shadow, is the closest I can come to the nights I spent walking country roads by starlight with my dad. Whatever we were doing—hunting, fishing, or just collecting wild mistletoe for Christmas—he always had to set out long before first light. Under clear skies, even moonless nights were bright-lit; by starlight alone, we'd walk easily down the dusty roads and through the ditch-rimmed fields. He carried a flashlight, a little thing with a red lens, but he only pulled it out in thick woods where even moonlight couldn't penetrate.
I don't expect I'll ever go hunting or fishing again; life—work, mostly—has made a city girl of me. And Becky has little interest in the outdoors, beyond watching fireflies and hummingbirds in our back yard.
This morning's fog was as heavy as I've seen in years. It made compact halos around the streetlamps. Shrubs materialized magically only a few steps before me, and evaporated a few steps behind.
The fog had been nearly this thick the first time I saw the naked woman in daylight, two years ago. She was so heartbreakingly lovely that I'd reflexively reached for my phone to take a picture—only to freeze with the phone half-raised. I knew, without the slightest doubt: She'd allowed me see her many times, but if I tried to show her to Becky, she'd destroy us both.
She didn't sprout claws; her mouth didn't open into a wide grin impossibly full of needle teeth; she remained a tall, beautiful, naked woman. But the vague fear she'd caused before crystallized that morning. I knew she would kill me if I offended her.
Yet I continued to watch for her on my night walks. I often wondered if anybody else saw her—but I never dared ask, knowing instinctively I shouldn't speak about her. She liked darkness and concealment; so I also wondered, Why does she let me see her? What's special about me?
Passing the park, I heard a faint ooh, ooh-ooh a block or two away; not an owl, a mourning dove. I stopped to listen more carefully, and could hear the entire call: Ooah ooh, ooh-ooh. I was more used to hearing them in the evening or near midnight; around here, at least, early morning is more for the chuck-will's-widows, their chorus of Ti-yu tu-wip! like a badly-organized call-and-response prayer meeting.
Right now we're about halfway through the fall dove season in Arkansas. I don't know how many people still hunt doves, compared to when I was a kid, but several guys in my office go every year. I won't ever go again, not after the times Dad took me out. We lived in the country, but in the part of it all the town hunters flocked to every season. Any stubble field not surrounded by purple paint and POSTED signs would be lined end-to-end with hunters.
Dad took me three times one season, and it was always the same. Like always, we'd leave while it was still full dark. We'd walk to whichever field he'd chosen, and he'd find us a place to perch about midway down. Because we left so early, he could always find a spot he liked; I'd hear him say, "Hey, Bill," to somebody already in place, but he'd just move thirty yards down and be satisfied. But soon other hunters—city hunters—would start to filter in, parking big growly pickups by the road, hauling sloshing coolers between them, big six-cell flashlights throwing beams clear across the field.
And talking. Yelling, even. "Get that goddam light outta my eyes." "Who's got the 20-gauge shells?" "Whad'you put in this coffee, rabbit shit?" More than once it would be Dad swearing at the light in his eyes, as some footless jackass practically fell into our laps. "Goddam peckerheads," Dad would say. "No manners at all." They wouldn't shut up, even after they got their camp chairs and coolers arranged, even after the sky began to lighten.
And after they got situated, we'd hear the beer cans start to pop. Dad hated drunk hunters more than anything. "Be damn glad they only got shotguns, not rifles," he told me.
Finally, along about sunrise, some poor brain-addled dove would wander into the field. Dad always, I don't know how, knew which way they'd be flying, so they'd cross side-to-side before us. So a dove would appear far to our left, down by the road, and guns would start to go off. Bam! Blam! Bonk! Bam! (At the right distance, with the right echoes, some shotguns go Bonk!) They'd fire from both sides of a field two hundred yards wide, whether the bird was on their side or the other; the city hunters had no idea how far away they could bring down a bird.
The dove would tear down the field, jinking back and forth, up and down, and the guns would keep firing. Soon there'd be bangs alongside us and opposite us, and pellets from hunters across the field would start to patter around me. I knew they were harmless, but I hated that sound.
Then the dove would be past, and more guns would fire, and the dove would disappear out the far end of the field, untouched. All around, I'd hear the clack of double-barrels being reloaded and closed, and the quieter clicking of fresh shells slipping into the pump guns. And more talking.
Five or ten minutes later, here'd come another dove, and the fusillade would start again. Maybe this time, by some miracle, the dove would actually fall, and five or eleven guys would rush into the stubble to argue over which one brought it down; but most times the dove flew from end to end without losing a feather.
Dad never fired a shot, and never let me fire either. "No point in shooting," he said, "when it's pure luck if you hit." The few birds that came near us were so annoyed by the gunfire that they'd hardly fly three feet before changing direction. You can't lead a bird that's likely to turn a right angle before your load gets there.
We went three times, and never stayed more than two hours after sunrise. Dad would get fed up with the pellets falling around us, and the idiots "letting loose at birds a quarter-mile off," and the drinking and endless chatter. "C'mon, Juney," he'd say at last. "Let's go get breakfast." We'd unload our guns, case them, and start walking back along the ditch to the road.
That's when most of the hunters around us would first see I was a girl. I was tall for my age, but I'd still hear a lot of comments like, "That gun's longer than she is!" or "Watch out, girl, that gun'll knock you on your butt!"
I was twelve and still built roughly on the lines of a fence post, but that didn't stop one beery bozo from calling, "Hey, cutie!" Green Remington shells and squashed Miller Lite cans were littered around him; he probably could hardly tell me from the doves. But Dad stopped dead, turned full-face to him, and gave him a freezing glare until his lip began to tremble. "Hey, I di'n't mean nothing."
After the season ended, Dad told me he'd talked to all his friends, and not one of them had brought in a single dove that year. Dad never went after dove again. "Goddam silly thing to hunt," he said by way of excuse; "not enough meat on them to feed a baby." But I know he was just discouraged at how the city hunters had ruined the season.
"Everybody's got a right to go hunting," he said. "But they ought to do it right—be respectful."
A squirrel barked, seemingly in my ear, startling the hell out of me. I finally spotted it several feet over my head, chittering grumpily, probably defaming my ancestry. The fog was playing tricks with my senses.
Fog like this both amplifies and deadens sound, the heavy, dense air carrying noises and speech for blocks, but taking away all sense of direction or distance. Everything sounded either right by my ear or under a pile of quilts. The fog clogged my sinuses, but my ears were sharp; every time I sniffed, I heard a dozen echoes.
The wetness amplifies odors, too. This morning, walking the first few blocks from my house, I smelled things I hadn't noticed in weeks. I felt certain: I could close my eyes and let somebody lead me around, and by smell and sound always know just where I was.
The sour-sweet smell of the Greys' persimmon tree, soft overripe fruit splattered on the street; the fecal reek of that one rental with too many kids in the back and too many dogs fenced in front; the rotted odor of years of boat-like leaves and sour red fruits under the Herreras' huge sprawling magnolia—better than its sickening summer-blooming smell, but still ugly.
The hissing sand in the gutter by the big stone house, washed there when last month's rains from Hurricane Laura interrupted their new landscaping; the unending mutter from Mr. Haney's TV, left on 24/7 since his wife died, turned loud because of his hearing; the skitter of kicked sweet gum balls by the park; the crackle of acorn hulls under my shoes beneath the Hortons' spreading oak.
And, of course, the dogs. I could have found my way in pitch blackness, just by which dog was closest by, slandering my good name.
I'd often noticed how, unlike the dogs, the naked woman moved in complete silence. When I first saw her in fog, I couldn't even hear the dewdrops dripping from her hair.
If I got lost in the fog, I thought, I could always get home by following the stinging odor of the two huge rosemary bushes flanking the front porch next door. I'd always thought of rosemary as an herb; I had no idea it could grow to be a hefty six-foot shrub.
When we first married and moved here, Becky insisted we introduce ourselves to our closest neighbors. We started at the house with the rosemary bushes. I could see, though, that once Becky rang the doorbell her nerve was failing. When a tall, balding man of about forty answered, she faltered, saying, "Hi! I'm Becky, and—and this is my—my wife June." We'd met some hostility here and there, it not being long since Arkansas had to allow us to marry.
The man looked down at us, then called over his shoulder, "Hon, can you come to the door?" He turned back to us. "I'm Dale. And this"—as a stocky man an inch or so taller than me appeared—"is my husband Stuart." After that, I never saw Becky hesitate again.
They'd been married about six months longer than we had, but they'd lived together for eight years. They had a daughter, Olivia, from Dale's first, unsuccessful marriage—unsuccessful enough he'd had little trouble getting full custody. Livvie was a darling, a brilliant singer with plans to sing opera; I thought she was a good kid, but Becky absolutely adored her. She sometimes accompanied me on walks—but never the late-night ones where I saw the naked woman.
I kicked a hickory nut and startled up a rabbit. It darted off into the fog, with a faint rustle of leaves.
Even deep in the city, this neighborhood is lousy with rabbits, possums, coons, skunks—even an armadillo now and then.
It's because of the rabbits, I'm sure, that I saw a coyote slinking between houses last year. Startled, I tried to convince myself it was a stray dog, but there was no mistaking the slinking, rawboned shape, the black-tipped tail.
I thought, At least it wasn't a wolf. Coyotes might pick off the stray house cat or Scottie dog, but they didn't often attack humans. The typical city human didn't have any natural predators—that I knew of.
I was reminded of an October when I was fifteen or sixteen. I still fished, and I liked to shoot, but I'd lost interest in hunting. I hadn't gone all PETA and decided that hunting was vicious and inhuman; I'd simply grown irritated with a sport I lacked time to excel at. But Dad still went to the deer woods every year, and brought home the occasional turkey, bag of squirrels, or brace of rabbits as well.
This day my brother Phil, who'd never wanted to hunt or fish with Dad, said something about deer hunting being cruel and repulsive. Dad didn't get mad. He just went to his car and got a battered magazine he'd been saving for years; I'd seen him show the same magazine to people in the diners where we got breakfast or lunch after our hunting and fishing trips.
The magazine had an article from the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, about the necessity of deer hunting. Since wolves and cougars are virtually gone from Arkansas, white-tail deer have few natural predators. The only things keeping them in check are their food supply, human hunters—and cars.
The article had figures about how many white-tails would starve every year if their population grew unchecked, and how much deer would cost Arkansas in crop damage every year, but I never remembered those. What I remembered was the calculation that if deer hunting were banned, within ten years Arkansas would have fifty thousand deer-related car accidents a year. At the time, that was roughly the same as the total number of reported accidents each year.
"What's more cruel?" Dad said. "Hunt a few thousand deer every season, or have thousands starving to death, herds wandering onto I-40 to wreck the truckers, every third car in the state with a bashed-in radiator or windshield?" The deer needed to be hunted, he insisted. We were their only predator.
Phil, stumped, had fallen back on what Dad called "tree-hugger logic." "At least starvation's natural," he said. "That's how things have always been; nature finds its own balance."
Dad threw up his hands. "What's always so damn unnatural about people?" he complained. "We didn't come here from another planet! We grew up here, same as the deer and the birds and the beavers." Seeing Phil stuck again, Dad went on, "I've never seen what's supposed to make a beaver lodge so much more noble than this house you live in. One way or the other, somebody wanted a place to live, and put together whatever he could to make it. Just because we invent things, that doesn't make us unnatural."
Phil, a couple of years younger than me and not all that forthright, stomped off in a huff. Dad turned to me. "Hey, I didn't say a word," I headed him off. "I got nothing against deer hunting."
"Good thing." He flipped through the magazine idly, then said, as if repeating a thought he'd had many times before, "Maybe those Sierra Club tree-huggers wouldn't be so hot on nature if there were still some real predators out there. If something in the wild killed a million or so people a year, I bet Phil would by-God learn to shoot."
"Bet he would."
"Might be good for us, too." He threw the magazine down. "Humans, I mean. I talk big about how our house is as natural as a beaver lodge. But what about those high-rise apartment blocks they're building on the lake close to town? Even I know it ain't natural to cram people together into cells like a damn beehive."
He grabbed the magazine again. Going out to return it to his car, he said, "One of these days, either we're going to go nuts, all crammed together, and start really killing each other off, or nature's going to evolve something meaner than us to thin the herds a bit. And it'll start in the cities, not in the piney woods around here."
About twenty blocks from my house, sunlight still dimmed by the mist, I stopped to look at a brown wriggling in the leaves at the curb. I thought at first it was a big earthworm, fallen into the street, then I saw it was a little brown snake, a common garden snake, maybe eight inches stretched straight. It writhed in the leaves, not seeming to be going anywhere, but also not seeming hurt. I found a stick nearby to slide under its white belly, and flipped it over into the grass.
I watched it wriggle away, then turned back to the street. Three feet away, a pale gleam caught my eye—another little brown snake, dead in the leaf-littered gutter. I nudged it with my toe, noting how stiff it was, wondering at the coincidence of finding two identical snakes, one live, one dead, a yard apart.
Why do dead snakes always turn belly-up? I wondered. Then I looked up, and there she stood.
If she'd been five or six steps further away, she'd have dissolved into the fog, as the house behind her did. She looked ghostly, though the feeling shot through me that the asphalt under my Sauconys was more fragile than her skin. I stood staring, overcome by her loveliness. She had the austerity of a sunlit desert, but the vitality of a leaping squirrel—and the overwhelming strength of the Arkansas River in flood.
She terrified me and exalted me, at the same time.
Now she approached slowly, little sidesteps that took her onto the street, then back onto the lawn, but always a little closer to me. Here in the fog, with every scent intensified, I noticed for the first time that I never smelled her. That surprised me more than her perpetual silence; how could someone so terribly there, so much alive, have no scent at all?
I'd never spoken to her. Even the first time I saw her, when I first thought I'd stumbled onto a rape victim in shock, words died on my tongue. And of course she never made a sound. But this morning I felt she had something to tell me.
I felt her powerful magnetism again, a strong charisma without any taint of sensual allure. It had never been so potent. I wanted her to show me miracles. I wanted her to transform the world.
Instead, she transformed herself. Standing in the grass, topping me by nearly a foot, the naked woman melted into the shape of a buck deer, seven-pointed, standing proud and thick-necked and stupid as a fence post. For a moment I itched to hold Dad's old pump shotgun in my hands; I still have it, though it's hard to find 16-gauge shells any more. But I couldn't have shot the buck—not because it stood on a city lawn, not because I hadn't had a license since I was seventeen, but because I remembered the woman.
Then she was back, as if the clinging fog had swirled her from one shape to another. I saw droplets glistening in her all-colors hair. The morning was brightening; the fog had surely burned off the hilltops by now; in a few more minutes it would begin to burn out of the broad hollow cradling our neighborhood.
She changed again. This time a gray wolf grinned at me from the height of my belly. No slinking scavenger this time; I faced one of nature's cleverest, most patient predators. I didn't breathe, didn't move—didn't dare turn my eyes aside from hers. Her grin widened, showing magnificent teeth; she laughed silently at me, her tail switching slowly.
The woman was back. I've lost count of how often I've seen her in the five years since Becky and I moved here, but this morning I understood for the first time: She appeared as a woman because I was a woman. The coyote would have seen another coyote, or perhaps a friendly wolf. But this morning she showed me what else she could be, what else she'd always been.
She changed again. This time she was no beast I knew, was not entirely a beast at all. She—alien as her appearance was, I knew this creature was female—bulked large enough to fade into the fog between me and the invisible house. I saw great orange eyes sunk into sockets like punch bowls, and long gray fur, and one paw the size of a sofa cushion; I smelled musk. But I saw stone, as well, and thick knotted shapes like heavy tree roots, and I smelled rotted leaves and ripening fruit. This creature was animal, and earth, and forest, all together.
She was a creature of power, a creature of change, a creature of destruction. I saw no mouth, no huge wolf's teeth, but I knew my life hung by a thread, by her merest whim. I couldn't run; I no longer had strength to stand. I sank to my hands and knees, acorn hulls cutting into my palms. I waited—to die, to live, to be forgiven for crimes I didn't understand.
Again the woman came back. She cocked an eyebrow at me, a startlingly human expression, and I understood more: She was warning me. She liked me. Perhaps she sensed the combination of Dad's teachings and my own beliefs: violence in nature, and to nature, is natural; I matter to myself; we grew up here, too; "Be respectful". And a willingness to believe in the naked woman—and the memory of Dad's words: Nature's going to evolve something meaner than us to thin the herds a bit. And it'll start in the cities…
While I knelt in the street, she stepped back into the fog and vanished. Shakily I pushed to my feet, and started toward home through the thinning fog. I wanted to get back to Becky, to see her safe. The naked woman liked me—but I wasn't sure she cared that I love Becky.
She liked me, so she let me glimpse her true self, before she turned it upon others. It wasn't compassion—I know she has none. More likely she was measuring my response to her, getting a feel for her prey.
She's already begun. I really could have followed the smell of rosemary home this morning. I smelled its moist tang from three blocks away, because it wasn't just two large shrubs any more; it was a thicket of rosemary, hundreds of bushes where Dale and Stuart's house used to be. The lot is bare of any house, sidewalk, or driveway. There's nothing but two large maples and two sickly elms, and rosemary bushes tangling around their feet, breathing moist perfume into the warm sunlight.
Becky doesn't remember Dale or Stuart; she doesn't remember that there was a house next door when she went to bed last night. Worse, she doesn't remember Livvie—fourteen-year-old, fiercely talented Olivia, who wanted to sing with the Met when she grew up. I'm sure nobody at the Lutheran school remembers Livvie either; perhaps the choir director wonders vaguely, When will I have a star soloist again?
Maybe tomorrow morning I'll find that Mr. Haney's house is gone, his TV silenced. Or a grove of persimmons will replace the Greys' house. Or the fresh-laid sod at the big stone house will lost in a thicket of honeysuckle and hickories. And Becky won't remember Mr. Haney, or the stone house we often daydreamed about buying when we grew rich and famous, or the persimmon wine that Tina Grey used to make.
The naked woman will digest the nails and plastic and wire and concrete easily; she's animal and plant and earth, but she's bred for the city.
Maybe a few of you have seen her or one of her kind—a naked man, perhaps. Maybe that means you're safe, as I believe I may be safe.
But the rest of you: I'm not telling you this story to warn you. If you haven't seen her, you won't; she's a predator beyond your ability to defend or flee. No warning will protect you when she comes. And if she, or another like her, has already visited your neighborhood, you won't remember the ones she took, and my story won't bring their memory back.
No, I'm telling this story because I may be the only one who can. This is my memorial for Livvie, and Dale and Stuart. There's nothing else I can do for them; I don't believe I'll ever see the naked woman again.
I don't think we're in danger of extinction. That's not her purpose, their purpose, any more than it's the wolf pack's purpose to kill every deer in the forest.
But it's time to thin the herd.
DTS

The Scent of Warm Rosemary

I saw the naked woman for the last time today.
The streets had heavy fog this morning, the kind where houses are vague shadows, even invisible, from the sidewalk. On impulse, I went walking just before dawn. I knew I'd come home dew-sticky and stuffy-nosed, but I hoped—feared—I'd see the naked woman again. So I pulled on tights, shorts, and a sweat shirt, and set out in the chill.
She usually appears only on the very darkest nights. But twice before I'd found her in heavy dawn fog; it seems all that matters is that I can't see her until I'm practically standing beside her. Her skin looks ash-gray in fog, her hair all the colors of tree bark and leaf mold.
She's very beautiful, tall and willowy, but there's nothing erotic about her nakedness, any more than there is to a naked squirrel—or bare stone. Clothes simply don't belong on her. Still, I'd long ago decided to let her take me if she tried; as much as I love my wife, the tall woman has an undeniable magnetism. It's why I keep looking for her, why I don't run away.
Because she terrifies me, too. For one thing, I know she's not real. Not in the sense that I'm real—that a drunk driver could whiz down the street and leave me dangling broken in someone's crepe myrtle like a weird early Halloween decoration. A car could pass right through her; or perhaps I should say she wouldn't notice it.
On the other hand, she's more than real. Now and then, we all have the feeling we're in the presence of something larger than ourselves. I had it at my sister's college graduation, overcome that two hundred kids were about to go out and try to rebuild the world. I had it last summer when the Arkansas River flooded, watching the muddy water spread half a mile through my grandmother's neighborhood, to stop literally at her doorstep. At a Black Lives Matter protest this summer, gathered with hundreds of people, I had it twice over, suddenly knowing two things: We could actually cause change, if enough of us worked together—and a tenth of us could be dead by fall, if the coronavirus kept getting worse.
All by herself, the naked woman gives me that feeling. She's larger than her physical body. She's more than I can see with my eyes, or touch with my hands—if I dared touch her.
She reminds me of nights in the country growing up, looking at thousands and thousands of stars, feeling how immense the space out there is. I never felt small, the way some people say they do; I always knew I was unique, and that even if I didn't matter to my brat brother, I mattered to myself. But the stars and the sky were larger than I was.
So is she.
I'd call her a nature spirit, except that I feel she belongs in the city, amid trees with their low branches neatly pruned, not to stunt the grass with their shade or block the view out the picture windows. She belongs with the crepe myrtles and brick driveways, the jonquil beds and the carefully manicured lawns. Her feet were made to spring from asphalt to grass, her hair to whip in the breeze from passing cars. The only thing that doesn't fit the city is her need for darkness, for concealment.
She's a secret. A mystery of the city.
Dark nights in the country are different from the city. In the country, all the light comes from outside, from the moon and stars; the darkest nights are the cloudy ones, the heavy overcast that brings pounding rain—now and then a tornado. In town, overcast nights are the brightest, the city's glare bottled in and mirrored down. On a cloudy night the orange sky shines bright enough I can read a book in my back yard.
In town, the dark nights are the clearest, most cloudless ones, when a few dim stars—Vega, Antares, the Dippers sometimes—flicker up high, but the city glare is just a faint glow around the horizon. The moon is down; Venus has set with the sun; Jupiter and Saturn are pinpoints illuminating nothing.
Those were the nights I'd first seen the naked woman, when I walked in the cool middle night, when most of the town was in bed and few cars brought their headlights to ruin my night vision. Becky, fearful of cars, bought me a fancy color-changing LED harness to wear, but I always turn it off as soon as I'm out of sight of our house. I like the darkness, hate the colorful aura the harness casts around me.
Walking the midnight streets, making my way from porch light to street light to deep tree-shadow, is the closest I can come to the nights I spent walking country roads by starlight with my dad. Whatever we were doing—hunting, fishing, or just collecting wild mistletoe for Christmas—he always had to set out long before first light. Under clear skies, even moonless nights were bright-lit; by starlight alone, we'd walk easily down the dusty roads and through the ditch-rimmed fields. He carried a flashlight, a little thing with a red lens, but he only pulled it out in thick woods where even moonlight couldn't penetrate.
I don't expect I'll ever go hunting or fishing again; life—work, mostly—has made a city girl of me. And Becky has little interest in the outdoors, beyond watching fireflies and hummingbirds in our back yard.
This morning's fog was as heavy as I've seen in years. It made compact halos around the streetlamps. Shrubs materialized magically only a few steps before me, and evaporated a few steps behind.
The fog had been nearly this thick the first time I saw the naked woman in daylight, two years ago. She was so heartbreakingly lovely that I'd reflexively reached for my phone to take a picture—only to freeze with the phone half-raised. I knew, without the slightest doubt: She'd allowed me see her many times, but if I tried to show her to Becky, she'd destroy us both.
She didn't sprout claws; her mouth didn't open into a wide grin impossibly full of needle teeth; she remained a tall, beautiful, naked woman. But the vague fear she'd caused before crystallized that morning. I knew she would kill me if I offended her.
Yet I continued to watch for her on my night walks. I often wondered if anybody else saw her—but I never dared ask, knowing instinctively I shouldn't speak about her. She liked darkness and concealment; so I also wondered, Why does she let me see her? What's special about me?
Passing the park, I heard a faint ooh, ooh-ooh a block or two away; not an owl, a mourning dove. I stopped to listen more carefully, and could hear the entire call: Ooah ooh, ooh-ooh. I was more used to hearing them in the evening or near midnight; around here, at least, early morning is more for the chuck-will's-widows, their chorus of Ti-yu tu-wip! like a badly-organized call-and-response prayer meeting.
Right now we're about halfway through the fall dove season in Arkansas. I don't know how many people still hunt doves, compared to when I was a kid, but several guys in my office go every year. I won't ever go again, not after the times Dad took me out. We lived in the country, but in the part of it all the town hunters flocked to every season. Any stubble field not surrounded by purple paint and POSTED signs would be lined end-to-end with hunters.
Dad took me three times one season, and it was always the same. Like always, we'd leave while it was still full dark. We'd walk to whichever field he'd chosen, and he'd find us a place to perch about midway down. Because we left so early, he could always find a spot he liked; I'd hear him say, "Hey, Bill," to somebody already in place, but he'd just move thirty yards down and be satisfied. But soon other hunters—city hunters—would start to filter in, parking big growly pickups by the road, hauling sloshing coolers between them, big six-cell flashlights throwing beams clear across the field.
And talking. Yelling, even. "Get that goddam light outta my eyes." "Who's got the 20-gauge shells?" "Whad'you put in this coffee, rabbit shit?" More than once it would be Dad swearing at the light in his eyes, as some footless jackass practically fell into our laps. "Goddam peckerheads," Dad would say. "No manners at all." They wouldn't shut up, even after they got their camp chairs and coolers arranged, even after the sky began to lighten.
And after they got situated, we'd hear the beer cans start to pop. Dad hated drunk hunters more than anything. "Be damn glad they only got shotguns, not rifles," he told me.
Finally, along about sunrise, some poor brain-addled dove would wander into the field. Dad always, I don't know how, knew which way they'd be flying, so they'd cross side-to-side before us. So a dove would appear far to our left, down by the road, and guns would start to go off. Bam! Blam! Bonk! Bam! (At the right distance, with the right echoes, some shotguns go Bonk!) They'd fire from both sides of a field two hundred yards wide, whether the bird was on their side or the other; the city hunters had no idea how far away they could bring down a bird.
The dove would tear down the field, jinking back and forth, up and down, and the guns would keep firing. Soon there'd be bangs alongside us and opposite us, and pellets from hunters across the field would start to patter around me. I knew they were harmless, but I hated that sound.
Then the dove would be past, and more guns would fire, and the dove would disappear out the far end of the field, untouched. All around, I'd hear the clack of double-barrels being reloaded and closed, and the quieter clicking of fresh shells slipping into the pump guns. And more talking.
Five or ten minutes later, here'd come another dove, and the fusillade would start again. Maybe this time, by some miracle, the dove would actually fall, and five or eleven guys would rush into the stubble to argue over which one brought it down; but most times the dove flew from end to end without losing a feather.
Dad never fired a shot, and never let me fire either. "No point in shooting," he said, "when it's pure luck if you hit." The few birds that came near us were so annoyed by the gunfire that they'd hardly fly three feet before changing direction. You can't lead a bird that's likely to turn a right angle before your load gets there.
We went three times, and never stayed more than two hours after sunrise. Dad would get fed up with the pellets falling around us, and the idiots "letting loose at birds a quarter-mile off," and the drinking and endless chatter. "C'mon, Juney," he'd say at last. "Let's go get breakfast." We'd unload our guns, case them, and start walking back along the ditch to the road.
That's when most of the hunters around us would first see I was a girl. I was tall for my age, but I'd still hear a lot of comments like, "That gun's longer than she is!" or "Watch out, girl, that gun'll knock you on your butt!"
I was twelve and still built roughly on the lines of a fence post, but that didn't stop one beery bozo from calling, "Hey, cutie!" Green Remington shells and squashed Miller Lite cans were littered around him; he probably could hardly tell me from the doves. But Dad stopped dead, turned full-face to him, and gave him a freezing glare until his lip began to tremble. "Hey, I di'n't mean nothing."
After the season ended, Dad told me he'd talked to all his friends, and not one of them had brought in a single dove that year. Dad never went after dove again. "Goddam silly thing to hunt," he said by way of excuse; "not enough meat on them to feed a baby." But I know he was just discouraged at how the city hunters had ruined the season.
"Everybody's got a right to go hunting," he said. "But they ought to do it right—be respectful."
A squirrel barked, seemingly in my ear, startling the hell out of me. I finally spotted it several feet over my head, chittering grumpily, probably defaming my ancestry. The fog was playing tricks with my senses.
Fog like this both amplifies and deadens sound, the heavy, dense air carrying noises and speech for blocks, but taking away all sense of direction or distance. Everything sounded either right by my ear or under a pile of quilts. The fog clogged my sinuses, but my ears were sharp; every time I sniffed, I heard a dozen echoes.
The wetness amplifies odors, too. This morning, walking the first few blocks from my house, I smelled things I hadn't noticed in weeks. I felt certain: I could close my eyes and let somebody lead me around, and by smell and sound always know just where I was.
The sour-sweet smell of the Greys' persimmon tree, soft overripe fruit splattered on the street; the fecal reek of that one rental with too many kids in the back and too many dogs fenced in front; the rotted odor of years of boat-like leaves and sour red fruits under the Herreras' huge sprawling magnolia—better than its sickening summer-blooming smell, but still ugly.
The hissing sand in the gutter by the big stone house, washed there when last month's rains from Hurricane Laura interrupted their new landscaping; the unending mutter from Mr. Haney's TV, left on 24/7 since his wife died, turned loud because of his hearing; the skitter of kicked sweet gum balls by the park; the crackle of acorn hulls under my shoes beneath the Hortons' spreading oak.
And, of course, the dogs. I could have found my way in pitch blackness, just by which dog was closest by, slandering my good name.
I'd often noticed how, unlike the dogs, the naked woman moved in complete silence. When I first saw her in fog, I couldn't even hear the dewdrops dripping from her hair.
If I got lost in the fog, I thought, I could always get home by following the stinging odor of the two huge rosemary bushes flanking the front porch next door. I'd always thought of rosemary as an herb; I had no idea it could grow to be a hefty six-foot shrub.
When we first married and moved here, Becky insisted we introduce ourselves to our closest neighbors. We started at the house with the rosemary bushes. I could see, though, that once Becky rang the doorbell her nerve was failing. When a tall, balding man of about forty answered, she faltered, saying, "Hi! I'm Becky, and—and this is my—my wife June." We'd met some hostility here and there, it not being long since Arkansas had to allow us to marry.
The man looked down at us, then called over his shoulder, "Hon, can you come to the door?" He turned back to us. "I'm Dale. And this"—as a stocky man an inch or so taller than me appeared—"is my husband Stuart." After that, I never saw Becky hesitate again.
They'd been married about six months longer than we had, but they'd lived together for eight years. They had a daughter, Olivia, from Dale's first, unsuccessful marriage—unsuccessful enough he'd had little trouble getting full custody. Livvie was a darling, a brilliant singer with plans to sing opera; I thought she was a good kid, but Becky absolutely adored her. She sometimes accompanied me on walks—but never the late-night ones where I saw the naked woman.
I kicked a hickory nut and startled up a rabbit. It darted off into the fog, with a faint rustle of leaves.
Even deep in the city, this neighborhood is lousy with rabbits, possums, coons, skunks—even an armadillo now and then.
It's because of the rabbits, I'm sure, that I saw a coyote slinking between houses last year. Startled, I tried to convince myself it was a stray dog, but there was no mistaking the slinking, rawboned shape, the black-tipped tail.
I thought, At least it wasn't a wolf. Coyotes might pick off the stray house cat or Scottie dog, but they didn't often attack humans. The typical city human didn't have any natural predators—that I knew of.
I was reminded of an October when I was fifteen or sixteen. I still fished, and I liked to shoot, but I'd lost interest in hunting. I hadn't gone all PETA and decided that hunting was vicious and inhuman; I'd simply grown irritated with a sport I lacked time to excel at. But Dad still went to the deer woods every year, and brought home the occasional turkey, bag of squirrels, or brace of rabbits as well.
This day my brother Phil, who'd never wanted to hunt or fish with Dad, said something about deer hunting being cruel and repulsive. Dad didn't get mad. He just went to his car and got a battered magazine he'd been saving for years; I'd seen him show the same magazine to people in the diners where we got breakfast or lunch after our hunting and fishing trips.
The magazine had an article from the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, about the necessity of deer hunting. Since wolves and cougars are virtually gone from Arkansas, white-tail deer have few natural predators. The only things keeping them in check are their food supply, human hunters—and cars.
The article had figures about how many white-tails would starve every year if their population grew unchecked, and how much deer would cost Arkansas in crop damage every year, but I never remembered those. What I remembered was the calculation that if deer hunting were banned, within ten years Arkansas would have fifty thousand deer-related car accidents a year. At the time, that was roughly the same as the total number of reported accidents each year.
"What's more cruel?" Dad said. "Hunt a few thousand deer every season, or have thousands starving to death, herds wandering onto I-40 to wreck the truckers, every third car in the state with a bashed-in radiator or windshield?" The deer needed to be hunted, he insisted. We were their only predator.
Phil, stumped, had fallen back on what Dad called "tree-hugger logic." "At least starvation's natural," he said. "That's how things have always been; nature finds its own balance."
Dad threw up his hands. "What's always so damn unnatural about people?" he complained. "We didn't come here from another planet! We grew up here, same as the deer and the birds and the beavers." Seeing Phil stuck again, Dad went on, "I've never seen what's supposed to make a beaver lodge so much more noble than this house you live in. One way or the other, somebody wanted a place to live, and put together whatever he could to make it. Just because we invent things, that doesn't make us unnatural."
Phil, a couple of years younger than me and not all that forthright, stomped off in a huff. Dad turned to me. "Hey, I didn't say a word," I headed him off. "I got nothing against deer hunting."
"Good thing." He flipped through the magazine idly, then said, as if repeating a thought he'd had many times before, "Maybe those Sierra Club tree-huggers wouldn't be so hot on nature if there were still some real predators out there. If something in the wild killed a million or so people a year, I bet Phil would by-God learn to shoot."
"Bet he would."
"Might be good for us, too." He threw the magazine down. "Humans, I mean. I talk big about how our house is as natural as a beaver lodge. But what about those high-rise apartment blocks they're building on the lake close to town? Even I know it ain't natural to cram people together into cells like a damn beehive."
He grabbed the magazine again. Going out to return it to his car, he said, "One of these days, either we're going to go nuts, all crammed together, and start really killing each other off, or nature's going to evolve something meaner than us to thin the herds a bit. And it'll start in the cities, not in the piney woods around here."
About twenty blocks from my house, sunlight still dimmed by the mist, I stopped to look at a brown wriggling in the leaves at the curb. I thought at first it was a big earthworm, fallen into the street, then I saw it was a little brown snake, a common garden snake, maybe eight inches stretched straight. It writhed in the leaves, not seeming to be going anywhere, but also not seeming hurt. I found a stick nearby to slide under its white belly, and flipped it over into the grass.
I watched it wriggle away, then turned back to the street. Three feet away, a pale gleam caught my eye—another little brown snake, dead in the leaf-littered gutter. I nudged it with my toe, noting how stiff it was, wondering at the coincidence of finding two identical snakes, one live, one dead, a yard apart.
Why do dead snakes always turn belly-up? I wondered. Then I looked up, and there she stood.
If she'd been five or six steps further away, she'd have dissolved into the fog, as the house behind her did. She looked ghostly, though the feeling shot through me that the asphalt under my Sauconys was more fragile than her skin. I stood staring, overcome by her loveliness. She had the austerity of a sunlit desert, but the vitality of a leaping squirrel—and the overwhelming strength of the Arkansas River in flood.
She terrified me and exalted me, at the same time.
Now she approached slowly, little sidesteps that took her onto the street, then back onto the lawn, but always a little closer to me. Here in the fog, with every scent intensified, I noticed for the first time that I never smelled her. That surprised me more than her perpetual silence; how could someone so terribly there, so much alive, have no scent at all?
I'd never spoken to her. Even the first time I saw her, when I first thought I'd stumbled onto a rape victim in shock, words died on my tongue. And of course she never made a sound. But this morning I felt she had something to tell me.
I felt her powerful magnetism again, a strong charisma without any taint of sensual allure. It had never been so potent. I wanted her to show me miracles. I wanted her to transform the world.
Instead, she transformed herself. Standing in the grass, topping me by nearly a foot, the naked woman melted into the shape of a buck deer, seven-pointed, standing proud and thick-necked and stupid as a fence post. For a moment I itched to hold Dad's old pump shotgun in my hands; I still have it, though it's hard to find 16-gauge shells any more. But I couldn't have shot the buck—not because it stood on a city lawn, not because I hadn't had a license since I was seventeen, but because I remembered the woman.
Then she was back, as if the clinging fog had swirled her from one shape to another. I saw droplets glistening in her all-colors hair. The morning was brightening; the fog had surely burned off the hilltops by now; in a few more minutes it would begin to burn out of the broad hollow cradling our neighborhood.
She changed again. This time a gray wolf grinned at me from the height of my belly. No slinking scavenger this time; I faced one of nature's cleverest, most patient predators. I didn't breathe, didn't move—didn't dare turn my eyes aside from hers. Her grin widened, showing magnificent teeth; she laughed silently at me, her tail switching slowly.
The woman was back. I've lost count of how often I've seen her in the five years since Becky and I moved here, but this morning I understood for the first time: She appeared as a woman because I was a woman. The coyote would have seen another coyote, or perhaps a friendly wolf. But this morning she showed me what else she could be, what else she'd always been.
She changed again. This time she was no beast I knew, was not entirely a beast at all. She—alien as her appearance was, I knew this creature was female—bulked large enough to fade into the fog between me and the invisible house. I saw great orange eyes sunk into sockets like punch bowls, and long gray fur, and one paw the size of a sofa cushion; I smelled musk. But I saw stone, as well, and thick knotted shapes like heavy tree roots, and I smelled rotted leaves and ripening fruit. This creature was animal, and earth, and forest, all together.
She was a creature of power, a creature of change, a creature of destruction. I saw no mouth, no huge wolf's teeth, but I knew my life hung by a thread, by her merest whim. I couldn't run; I no longer had strength to stand. I sank to my hands and knees, acorn hulls cutting into my palms. I waited—to die, to live, to be forgiven for crimes I didn't understand.
Again the woman came back. She cocked an eyebrow at me, a startlingly human expression, and I understood more: She was warning me. She liked me. Perhaps she sensed the combination of Dad's teachings and my own beliefs: violence in nature, and to nature, is natural; I matter to myself; we grew up here, too; "Be respectful". And a willingness to believe in the naked woman—and the memory of Dad's words: Nature's going to evolve something meaner than us to thin the herds a bit. And it'll start in the cities…
While I knelt in the street, she stepped back into the fog and vanished. Shakily I pushed to my feet, and started toward home through the thinning fog. I wanted to get back to Becky, to see her safe. The naked woman liked me—but I wasn't sure she cared that I love Becky.
She liked me, so she let me glimpse her true self, before she turned it upon others. It wasn't compassion—I know she has none. More likely she was measuring my response to her, getting a feel for her prey.
She's already begun. I really could have followed the smell of rosemary home this morning. I smelled its moist tang from three blocks away, because it wasn't just two large shrubs any more; it was a thicket of rosemary, hundreds of bushes where Dale and Stuart's house used to be. The lot is bare of any house, sidewalk, or driveway. There's nothing but two large maples and two sickly elms, and rosemary bushes tangling around their feet, breathing moist perfume into the warm sunlight.
Becky doesn't remember Dale or Stuart; she doesn't remember that there was a house next door when she went to bed last night. Worse, she doesn't remember Livvie—fourteen-year-old, fiercely talented Olivia, who wanted to sing with the Met when she grew up. I'm sure nobody at the Lutheran school remembers Livvie either; perhaps the choir director wonders vaguely, When will I have a star soloist again?
Maybe tomorrow morning I'll find that Mr. Haney's house is gone, his TV silenced. Or a grove of persimmons will replace the Greys' house. Or the fresh-laid sod at the big stone house will lost in a thicket of honeysuckle and hickories. And Becky won't remember Mr. Haney, or the stone house we often daydreamed about buying when we grew rich and famous, or the persimmon wine that Tina Grey used to make.
The naked woman will digest the nails and plastic and wire and concrete easily; she's animal and plant and earth, but she's bred for the city.
Maybe a few of you have seen her or one of her kind—a naked man, perhaps. Maybe that means you're safe, as I believe I may be safe.
But the rest of you: I'm not telling you this story to warn you. If you haven't seen her, you won't; she's a predator beyond your ability to defend or flee. No warning will protect you when she comes. And if she, or another like her, has already visited your neighborhood, you won't remember the ones she took, and my story won't bring their memory back.
No, I'm telling this story because I may be the only one who can. This is my memorial for Livvie, and Dale and Stuart. There's nothing else I can do for them; I don't believe I'll ever see the naked woman again.
I don't think we're in danger of extinction. That's not her purpose, their purpose, any more than it's the wolf pack's purpose to kill every deer in the forest.
But it's time to thin the herd.
DTS

A bunch of dumb numbers that probably don't mean anything

JoJo's Bizarre Adventure OC Tournament #5: Round 1 Match 12 Alexis and Cybil Vs Admiral Pineapples and Rudolph

Position	Colts Points	Bears Points
QB	4	2
WR1	2	4
WR2-5	3	3
RB	4	2
TEs	4	2
LT/RT	5	1
IOL	5	1
CBs	2	4
Safeties	2	4
Standup LBs	4	2
Pass Rush	2	4
IDL	3	3
K	2	4
P	3	3
PKR	4	2
Head Coach	3	3
	TOTALS	TOTALS
TOTALS	52	44

Description	Value
Vegas Odds	-2.5 for Colts
CBS Odds	-3 for Colts
SH Odds	-1 for Bears
MGM Odds	-3 for Colts
DraftKing Odds	-2.5 for Colts
NBC PR	IND 12, CHI 16
Fansided PR	IND 16, CHI 12
NFL PR	IND 16, CHI 19
SportNews PR	IND 17, CHI 12
CBS PR	IND 17, CHI 18
SportsNaut PR	IND 16, CHI 17

Description	Colts	Bears
SoV	0	0.125
WoL	0.666	NA
Avg PR of win opp	28.125	26.666
Avg PR of loss opp	24.25	NA
Percentage Predicted	35%	65%
Pts per game	28.0	24.7
Pts rank	13th	20th
Points given up per game	15	20.666
Points against rank	3rd	9th
Yards per game	389.7	387.3
Yards rank	15th	17th
Passing yards per game.	249.3	270.3
Pass yards rank	10th	22nd
Rush yards per game	119.3	138.0
Rush yards rank	15th	11th
Time of Possession rank	31st	27th
Sacks	9.0	7.0
Sacks rank	6th	11th
Interceptions	6.0	3.0
Interception rank	1st	7th

“届けて, 切なさには名前をつけようか ‘Snow halation!’”
The harpoon lodged itself into the Ocean Soul’s chest following a powerful toss from Pork Soda, the beast desperately trying to hit the tether to destroy it and release the harpoon, to no avail. The Ocean Soul had underestimated its opponents, who were currently singing some sort of song, perhaps a sort of war cry, meant to display their superior strength.
“想いが重なるまで待てずに, 悔しいけど好きって純情”
It had to do something! It released the Calamus Root in store within its mouth, ready to spit it out, before Sayonara Kodoku picked the Ocean Soul up, shut its mouth tight, and tossed it over to Pork Soda. With a thrust of its fingers, the porcine stand pierced the Ocean Soul’s eyes, blinding it.
Then, the two stands rushed at it, sending forwards a barrage of blows, breaking bones, claws, and disorientating it, before getting ready for a finisher. Pork Soda picked the Ocean Soul up by its tail and began spinning around, the rapid movement disorientating the fish and sending it closer and closer to its doom.
No, no! It couldn’t let this be! The Ocean Soul was a hunter, and even if its prey had gotten a leg up on it this time, it wasn’t going to give up! It could barely remain conscious under the pressure as the porcine stand spun it around, its already severe wounds getting exacerbated, but it had to do something!
Just one shot! Just one precise shot and it could use the opportunity to escape, to recover! The porcine stand was spinning it around by its tail, so the Ocean Soul could calculate the stand’s position! It just needed to regain its bearings, focus on getting a shot aimed, and it could use its spit to-
SLAM!
With a brutal impact, the Ocean Soul was slammed into a nearby rock. It felt itself sinking in the water as the two stands approached it, its imminent doom coming closer and closer with every movement they made.
It needed to escape, but it couldn’t bring itself to move. The two stands made their way towards it, floating above the ground as they loomed over the barely conscious beast.
Was this going to be it for the Ocean Soul?
“微熱の中ためらってもダメだね, 飛び込む勇気に賛成まもなく start!”
Like hell it was.
Gathering the little remaining energy it had, the Ocean Soul spat out the Calamus Root stored within its mouth, mixed with its saliva. Hitting the ground underneath the two stands, two long spikes quickly sprouted out of it and towards their bodies.
Though Sayonara Kodoku’s tough skin didn’t get pierced, the force of the growing spike sent it flying into the air, incapacitating it, if only for a moment. Meanwhile, Pork Soda wasn’t as lucky as it, the spike piercing through the left side of its body, tearing through its left leg and shoulder. The Ocean Soul couldn’t hear anything from underwater, but it was sure that its user was reeling in pain right about now.
Using the remainder of its energy, the Ocean Soul bolted away, desperately trying to remain conscious as it swam away from what it once considered its prey. It didn’t even look backwards, fearing that doing so would give its opponents the time they needed to finish it off for good. It didn’t even keep track of how far it swam, or for how long its opponents had chased it, or if they had done so at all. Its body was searing in pain, broken bones and wounds all over it.
Eventually, it couldn’t bring itself to swim any further, losing consciousness and sinking down into the ocean, not even the searing pain keeping it awake as it began to rest.
The Ocean Soul had lost, but this wasn’t the end of the beast. Though barely, it had managed to escape this encounter with its life.
The results are in for Match 10. The winner is…
‘Agnes’ Bayley and Prince Cosmo, with a score of 80 to the Ocean Soul’s 60!

Category	Winner	Point Totals	Comments
Popularity	Players	25-5	The word of the voterbase was clear: the vast majority felt that the Ocean Soul was handily defeated by the players.
Quality	Players	23-22	Reasoning
JoJolity	Ocean Soul	22-23	Reasoning
Conduct	Tie	10-10

“AAAAGH! GODDAMIT, STUPID FUCKING FISH!!” Agnes screamed in pain while clutching his leg, body strewn onto the nearest island, carried by Sayonara Kodoku. “IT STABBED THROUGH MY GODDAMN LEG!! FROM THE FOOT, TO MY WAIST, TO MY FUCKING SHOULDER! AAARGH, DAMMIT, WHERE’S JENNY WHEN YOU NEED HER!!”
“You should be happy we got away with our lives. The Ocean Soul isn’t going to come finish us off any time soon after what we did to it.”
“OH, REAL RICH COMING FROM THE ONE WHO DIDN’T GET STABBED IN THE FUCKING LEG BY THAT MONSTER. DO YOU WANT ME TO STAB YOU AS WELL SO YOU CAN SEE HOW IT FEELS?!” Agnes started rummaging around his surroundings with his right hand, searching for a sharp object to use for his “demonstration”.
“Frankly, you deserve it. Don’t forget that you are the cause for this all. Were it not for your foolishness, Webb would still be alive, and this would not have happened to you.” Cosmo chided.
“PFFF- WHATEVER!” In between his heavy breathing and pained cries, Agnes let out an audible sigh. “Fffffuck this, I’m gonna check my phone to see if there’s any connection here so that we can get the hell out of this place ASAP!” Agnes picked up his phone and pulled it up, taking a look at it.
“That will not be necessary. There is no connection here anyways, and I am certain that a helicopter has been sent out to retrieve us, or at the very least ascertain what might have happened to-” “Shut up, I’m getting a message from Cairo. ‘Don’t worry, Agnes, we have sent your location over to Vitus, and help should arrive in about fifteen minutes.’” Agnes looked at his phone in confusion. “Vitus? Who’s that asshole?”
“Vitus is the man who sent the helicopters out. The one which you indirectly crashed. Nonetheless, let me see that - I have a hard time believing that your phone is capable of picking up a signal when we’re so far away from any cellular towers.”
“And why should I care about what you believe, huh? Here, take a look for yourself!” Agnes shoved the phone in front of Cosmo's face, the dog looking intently at it and seeing… nothing beyond a simple homescreen. “What is this supposed to be. This is your phone’s home screen, and though that horrendous chimera at its center is an affront to anything and everything I believe in, there is no notification here. Could it be that you are perhaps hallucinating from the pain?”
“Wh- you can’t see it?! Don’t fuck with me!” Looking at the dog’s deadpan expression, Agnes could tell that that wasn’t the case. He looked over at the phone, spotting it right there, as clear as day - a notification for an sms from Cairo themselves, containing what he read out loud! “Fuck you, I’m not hallucinating! If anything, you are!”
Cosmo was about to retort, when he spotted something over the distance - a sailboat. It was old and decrepit, seemingly having gone through significant damage and yet still remaining intact, somehow. It clearly didn’t belong to Vitus, and likely wasn’t Cairo’s either. On the boat, he saw a silhouette of a haggard man, but the distance meant that he couldn’t exactly tell exactly what he looked like.
“Someone is coming.”
It wouldn’t be much longer before Agnes and Cosmo were able to get back onland, learn what terrible things they’d missed, even if they still had a wait and a talk ahead of them. Left to nurse grievous wounds, this seaborne menace has seen this chapter of aggression momentarily closed, but further inland, the waters of a laundromat are being braved by a time traveler and a woman in chains.
Scenario:
Sound’s Garden Eastern Strip - A Golden Limousine
The evening was beginning to set in, the lights of the islands of the area beginning to flash on and dot the sky as two women rode through the city, looking out through the windows as they relaxed in luxury. Cybil Antoine was one to travel in style, and now, with a companion in tow, was no exception.
“A strip that absolutely comes alive at night… Makes me feel almost nostalgic for Vegas,” her redheaded travel companion mused as she looked out, “speakin’ of which… you ever play anything like that, Cyby? Cards, slots, so on. We could try Heartache Casino, maybe, if we have time sometime… I bet you’d just have to throw your name around to get up on its higher floors.”
“It’s Cybil,” the wealthy woman emphasized, with an exhaustion begotten by this having been far from the first time, “or Miss Antoine… Either way, I am not a ‘Cyby.’ Get it right next time, alright?”
“Right, yeah, I know you’ve told me… I’m just a nicknamer by heart. Cross my heart, though! It won’t happen again!” Alexis Williams seemed… As serious as she could get about something like that, as curiously carefree, even devil-may-care, as the performer could get.
“Commit it to memory, then. Despite how much a fool you can act, I’m sure you know how much I had to pull to get you onto this stage.”
“Believe me, I do appreciate it!” Alexis answered, focus now turned away from the topic of gambling and onto that. “Putting on a show at one of the biggest stages in Los Fortuna, bigger than anything I’ve done before… I know our group has had some bad luck lately, with Bucket causing that trouble down at the fish market, and how down on herself Leo has been since that dumb show she said she got roped into, but we’re still the freakin’ Judecca Highrollers, right? I want to show the world that, and from their box, I want to show the rest of our team that we’ve got no better option than to face it all with a grin.”
“How very like you,” Cybil answered, neutral in her tone, careful not to betray the affection in such a statement as she pondered their current status, where they would be playing.
Alexis wouldn’t be headlining, unfortunately, though admittedly, her act wasn’t the sort of thing that did that anyway. Rather, a certain piece of immensely beloved local talent, a rocking performer who went by TD/MD, would be having her play immediately before her at the Alexander Dickinson Amphitheater, just a drive over a rapidly approaching bridge away. Cybil had been a little annoyed that one of her statues had been overshadowed by a plane crashing near it, not to mention had a desire to spread further the local influence of their team, and so she had arranged with the heads of the entertainment industry of Los Fortuna to see to it that her personal favorite performer among the allies and associates she’d made was onstage at the best possible place for a person wanting to be noticed.
She curled her lips at a cell phone which found its way to its hand, then, narrowing her eyes at its screen. “No word back from your backing band… Where are they? How inconsiderate not to send word on this, especially at how that Mr. Sins recommended them so glowingly.”
“I’m sure they’ll show,” Alexis answered, “and if not… We can make do, can’t we?”
“Of course,” Cybil answered, only to have her eye finally drawn back out the window by the sight of a vehicle which had pulled into the lane directly next to theirs as their limousine crossed the bridge.
Another golden limousine was directly next to them now, this one almost pointedly bigger, longer, more decked out in jewelry, and it seemed to be headed exactly the same way. Cybil, rather than confused or alarmed at the coincidence, simply thought aloud, “that would probably be Mr. Sins… Speak of the devil.”
“Amazing how quickly his casino recovered from nearly burning down…” Alexis mused aloud. “I heard that one of the people who trashed it sent him to the hospital, too.”
“An overreaction I’m certain, from what I know about the man. Absolutely terrified of a little pain, a little elbow grease… I’m not one to gossip, but I can’t help but wonder how a man like him even managed to become so prominent, so consistently successful.”
“Right,” Alexis answered, smirking and putting her finger up to her lips, “I won’t spread that around, then. I know how to schmooze with that type if the need arises.”
Los Fortuna Canals - The SS Sledge Sister
Admiral Pineapples was more comfortable on his own boat, but as far as the fleet of the Masters of Funky Action went, there was no real reason to send out more than one boat for this right now.
“Man, I can’t believe nobody else is ridin’ with me,” his companion, Rudolf Pavlova, said after downing an entire bottle of water in a single gulp, on the tail end of an hourlong keytar solo. “The rest of the Masters better at least make it to the Alexander! It’d really bum me out harder than when Wrenn shot me down if none a’them made it!”
Sorry, but I’m really more the headlining type! Playing second-fiddle to a man in a speedo opening for some local star sounds fun and all, but, I’d totally just overshadow them, I bet! So I should really probably stay out of it! That sentence, clear in its passive-aggressive scathingness, had put Wrenn Aflight’s declining of this gig pretty succinctly. As the man more or less everybody on the team could tolerate, listen to, and generally have a good time with, Admiral had been tasked with asking the other star performer of the team to join Rudolf on the gig he’d accepted opening up for locally beloved rock star and all-around idol TD/MD.
Not wanting to break Rudolf’s heart, he more or less told him the short version, ‘he couldn’t make it,’ and then volunteered his own services for the younger man. “You won’t be out there with none of your allies, though, Nureyev! For I, Admiral Pineapples, will aid you in coordinating every moment of your work! This will be one of the worthiest usages of my tactical mind in a long time, I’m sure!”
“I hope you’ve gotten those hour-long solos out of your system now, Nureyev,” Pineapples warned with an amused, lax tone, “you’re only going to have thirty minutes onstage before the headliner has to get ready, and there’ll be trouble if you bleed into that.”
“I know, I know,” Rudolf answered, casually, as he slipped into an open-chested bathrobe mainly meant to function as the legal requirement of public decency until it was time to perform, “I’m not one to step on anyone’s toes, let alone the star of the show. Live and let live, yeah?”
“I’m curious, though, and you never told me…” The Admiral asked, cracking open a beverage of his own and taking a sip, “how did you manage to get such a part as this in the first place?”
“Oh, that’s simple!” Rudolf said, the thought to answer having simply not occurred to him.
A few weeks ago - A beach in the Waterfront District.
“Alright! Thank you, Los Fortuna! I’m here all day, and all night, and all tomorrow too, baby! Party never stops!” Rudolf had just finished the latest of his performances to a small crowd of beachgoers, shredding through the end of his one-man keytar rendition of 2112 and transitioning into a truly epic medley of the extended Family Guy, American Dad, and Cleveland Show OPs.
As the crowd dispersed, a corporate suit-looking type of guy, bronze-skinned with neatly-groomed hair, remained, eyeing his keytar curiously and smiling artificially. “That was an excellent show, Mr… Pavlova, I think it was? You have such an undeniable energy about you that I can see when I lay eyes upon you… You’ve star material.”
“Am I being poached?” Rudolf asked, tilting his head, “‘cuz I assure you, I am a free agent! Not about to be scooped up by some label and forced to chill out the party churnin’ out music I don’t feel in my soul.”
“Nothing so abrupt, no… I’m a Manager, representing TD/MD. You can call me Thutmose. Anyway, she has a concert approaching rapidly, and we’re struggling and scrambling to find local, new talent and performers to open for her. We’ve managed to secure a lot of artists already, but the most important spot… Playing right before her… That, still, we have a particular need for, and I think you would serve it perfectly.”
“So I accepted!” In the present day, Rudolf finished, “why not, yeah? I can spread the party to tens of thousands at one of the biggest venues in town!”
“Scouted on the street, hm… That’s awfully lucky.” Something about this struck Admiral as odd, but he supposed it was all the more reason it was good he was backing his friend and ally up. He had a strong hunch there was more to it than appeared.
Rudolf’s party yacht would disembark soon, ported on the central-most island of the places which made up Sound’s Garden, and the party would make their way forward from there.
Sound’s Garden West Side - Outside the Alexander Dickinson Amphitheater
At the same time, a self-important first step was taken out of a pair of golden limousines, one a heel clacking first out of it and a short, stocky woman in pinstripe emerging, the other dress shoes leading up to a tall, lean man in a gold and yellow tux, grinning and running a hand through his slicked-back hair.
Cybil Antoine hadn’t had the “pleasure” of a personal conversation with Tigran Sins before, but had happened to overhear some of him during her meeting with that Thutmose man, and then and there, she had known everything about him, and knew that she had already had the displeasure of knowing dozens of men like him.
Still, though, one needed to be cordial in times like this, so as Alexis came out behind her, and a very strongly built-looking, mean-looking man with brown hair and a nice vest, attached to the lapel of which was a Heartache Casino brooch (a bouncer? A bodyguard?) stood by Tigran waiting to see what he wanted or what he did, she approached the man who dared to try and be more golden than her Stand. “Mr. Sins, I believe… I believe we’ve crossed paths, briefly, but we didn’t really have a chance to speak.”
The man tensed a bit, only to relax slightly again when he saw that Cybil intended only to speak. “Cybil Antoine, right? I’ve heard you’ve been making a hell of a lot of waves around town lately, so I must say I’m excited to meet you too.” He looked back past her, towards Alexis standing and stretching outside of her team’s limo. “Would that be your star you’ve got going on? Certainly she’s got charm.”
“Hi, right in front of you,” Alexis answered, teasingly passive-aggressively waving, “yeah, I’m going up before TD/MD.”
“She’s a very important star around here, you know… So you’d better put on a show that leaves them wanting for more of the best.” Tigran’s attendant spoke, then, sounding dead serious as he looked them over. “A lot of people have come here just for this, just for her sake… It is completely imperative you keep that in mind.”
Tigran simply nodded, concurring, “couldn’t have said it better myself, Fox.”
Shortly after that, the pairs went their separate ways, shifting through VIP areas of the area of the main structure of the amphitheater, series of comfortably shielded stadium halls that it was.
“Still no sign of the band… Still no word from them either. I’m cross now.”
Alexis, then, stopped in her trail, looking at a schedule which had been printed out and emblazoned upon a green room wall. “Uh, Cybil, you’re gonna wanna take a look at this.”
“Hm?” Cybil raised an eyebrow, turning to face what her partner was pointing at, and then glared again. “Who the hell is Nureyev, and why are they listed at the same time as you?”
“There’s gotta be some kinda mixup or somethin’, man… I know about this ‘Alexis Williams’ it talks about, and hear she’s a Vegas Performer, damn fine one at that who can really strut her stuff. But we ain’t in Vegas at all, so what gives?” Rudolf himself was gesturing at a printout version of much the same piece of programming, he and Admiral Pineapples having wandered much the same series of halls.
“Hrm…” Admiral, now, took a look at the sheet himself, combing over the names before Rudolf on the list and speaking names aloud. “‘Arancini,’ ‘Tenacious-er E,’ ‘Guy and the Fieris’ Heavy Metal Barbershop Quarter,’ all as scheduled… What the hell? Yeah. We’re the only acts double-booked like this, and you say you don’t know this woman personally?”
“Not in the slightest,” Rudolf said, “never laid personal eyes upon her! So maybe there’s a typo, yeah… I know! We could track down Thutmose! But, uh… Where the hell’s Thutmose right now?”
A distorted voice shout-whispered, “I heard that he was visiting TD/MD’s green room.”
“Huh? Oh, thanks!” Rudolf accepted that advice uncritically, beginning to make his way, but Pineapples looked, at least, in the direction it came from, seeing then flashes of a short-looking person in a maroon turban, face bandaged but mouth section bulging with something hidden underneath, and a pair of aviator goggles, as well as a tunic, trousers, and many bulky scarves adorned in the forms of climbing stick figures.
Looking at the man, Pineapples couldn’t help but feel suspicious, but hell, there was a lot shady going on here. “Yes, thank you, Mister… Who am I thanking?”
“No,” the figure answered dismissively, “think little of it… I’m just another interested party watching the show. If there’s confusion, then, I want to see it resolved fast! If you’ll excuse me, though, I need to make my way to my box…”
“Strange man…” Pineapples shook his head, not wanting to leave Rudolf alone to deal with this strange situation. He knew from hearsay and rumor that there were some truly dangerous things lurking in the bowels of Sound’s Garden, and Rudolf, more heart than head, was bound to be barreling into it.
Sound’s Garden - The largest and nicest green room in the halls of the Alexander Dickinson Amphitheater.
Metra Doria sat before a makeup chair as assistants fussed and fussed with her hair, her face, her clothes, occasionally being met with polite thanks, compliments, or idle chit-chat, representing a sort of familiarity the team had had with the pale, short-dark-haired girl with a single blue streak through her front left locks. She stared at her own dressed-up eyes in the mirror, one silver, one blue and at once black-striped through the iris. As she sat here, initially clad pretty casually and low-key, she was Metra, but as the outfit she had selected was put together, she would become TD/MD.
She was being cordial before now, but all of the small talk had ended as soon as her manager came into the scene, knocking, being invited to come in, and then doing so.
“How’s the show going, Thutmose? I wish I could see Guy and the Fieris do their thing, but… Makeup, I swear.”
“There’s… People insisting upon speaking, Metra. They’re performers, the ones before you, and they seem annoyed. I tried to shoo them away and tell them to work it out, but that only incensed the old-timers with them, and now they want to speak to you. I tried telling them it was a waste of your time, but-”
“This close to going on?” Metra narrowed her eyes at the reflected form of her manager. Always, it was one thing after another with this guy. Though most of the time, one might assume there was something not worth it going on here, she knew Thutmose well enough to know there might be problems. She sighed, shutting her eyes now. “It had better be important… Let ‘em in.”
And like that, a quartet of two twenty-somethings, a middle-aged woman, and an old man barreled in through the door at once, all talking over one another and expressing confusion with the other’s very existence and presence. It was making the half-prepared girl more uncomfortable than sitting in a chair for awhile just to get ready for a show often did, so she raised her voice, calmly but authoritatively, literally seeming to drown out their babbling in the process. “Quiet down, alright?! One at a time.”
There was a little more whispering among the four, then, and it was the pinstripe-suited woman who stepped forward among them to speak the crowd’s mind. “TD/MD, I presume… This ‘Thutmose’ man, he has made a grave mistake in the scheduling. My associate Alexis here, and this half-nude man carrying a keytar around, they have not met before today, and they certainly did not intend to collaborate before you. Your manager has refused to listen to reason about this, so we are taking the matter straight past him to you… Resolve it at once, and we can be on our way.”
“What?” Metra, facing them all, blinked, shaking her head and glaring at Thutmose. “Again? How does this keep happening? You overbook acts right before me, and it’s such a disaster I’ve started to need to allot extra time to cleanup guys after those sets… It was bad enough before, but it’s seriously getting out of hand, man. I can’t keep dealing with you if you treat everyone else you deal with like this. You’re done working with me. We’re through.”
“B-but… But Metra..!” Thutmose was flabbergasted, looking almost terrified at the prospect. “Please, be reasonable..! I need this job, understand? I’ve got gambling debts, and-”
“Whoa whoa whoa,” the keytarist (Rudolf, or Nureyev, according to the program) interjected then, “let’s not ruin a man’s life over me and Lexy here, yeah? I looked into the history of this place, the Alexander Dickinson… Named after a big dead deal Philanthropist, so basically a dude from the 90's who gave his all to culture in this city, funded all kinds’a stuff! Would a man like that want a man to be fired in his own memorial stadium?”
The logic seemed to confuse nearly everyone there, not least of all Metra, whose response, after a moment, was, “Huh? You… Are you saying it doesn’t bother you?”
“He’s saying that!” Thutmose pleaded. “I am certain he’s saying that!”
“I don’t mind, either…” The redheaded Alexis said next, nodding and looking around at nothing in particular. “Yeah, I think we can work with that… The band he set us up with bailed on us anyway, right? So… Music might help, and it’s not like the things we do step on each other’s toes, yeah? So whatever, I’m sure we’ll still leave a bigger impression.”
Cybil, then, pursed her lips. “If it doesn’t make a difference to you, then, and we’re all on the same page… But still, this is so very inconvenient.”
“Agreed…” Pineapples looked to Thutmose. “Be more responsible in the future, aye? I think even if you keep your job right now, you’re gonna be on thin ice for now. And give up on gambling, if it’s sunken you this far.”
Metra nodded. “Agreed. I can’t guarantee I won’t start looking for a new manager, but… You’ve been good to me, at least. Clean up your act.” Then, she looked over the quartet. “I’m seriously sorry about this… You say you had backup, but they’re not showing up now? I, uh… I don’t know what happened to whoever those were, or why they fell through, but I have something I can do to help both of your shows exist at once: six of the best stagehands I've got.”
At that, the star snapped her fingers, and from the shadowy corners of the room emerged two trios, three men in a pose one well-versed on incidents in the early 20th century Roman Colosseum might compare to Awakening One’s Masters appearing before the Masters of Funky Action, three women in turn also sliding in before the Judecca Highrollers in perfect sync, stepping in with the coordination one might associate with, as a weird example, teenage mobsters jazzed about a dude being sent to the ninth circle of hell.
All six were muscular, clad in black sleeveless shirts, leather gloves, pants, boots, and bandannas over their heads, and all around, they gave off auras of immense reliability.
“Harry, Mark, and John, and Thorn, Dusk, and Luna… I kid you not, these guys can basically do anything and everything you ask of them. If they didn’t much prefer supporting other people to being in the limelight themselves, they would be as big as I am. Treat them well, they’ll learn fast, and they’ll be invaluable to making your bits work. But, uh… I’d hurry it up. Guy and the Fieris probably only have a couple more encores in them, and then you’ll have fifteen to set up. I wish you all luck..!”
Metra Doria had been a bit of a miracle for the grateful performers and put-off older supporters, who had in turn both begun to explain their intended strategies and how those might change to their crew members, who understood alarmingly fast.
“Man…” Rudolf whistled in relief, chuckling. “What a scare that was… But you, Lexy? You’re alright, actually.”
“Thanks,” Alexis answered in turn, still trying to figure this guy out, “you don’t seem bad yourself… I almost kinda feel bad that we’re gonna totally eclipse you out there.”
“Y’think so, huh?” Rudolf answered with a grin, pointing forward with a friendly competitiveness. “Well, the party don’t get drowned out by a damn thing! I’m gonna get all these good people pumped as hell, and they’ll be cheerin’ for me even when that Metra chick goes on!”
“Ooh, I’m starting to feel a bit competitive…” Alexis answered, good-naturedly chuckling and folding her arms. “Wanna see who gets the crowd more pumped? Loser, uh… Buys the winner overpriced concert t-shirts. These things need stakes, right? Heh…”
At the somewhat tongue-in-cheek suggestion, Rudolf nodded. “Sure, yeah! That, and the pride of bein’ one of the best in the city! May the best team win!”
OPEN THE GAME!
Location: The Alexander Dickinson Amphitheater, one of the biggest outdoor venues in the entirety of the Metropolitan area, in the buildup to TD/MD’s headlining act, wherein both of your teams have had a performer set to open for her. The place is packed at a capacity of tens of thousands of people.
The stage is a competently designed semicircle which is roughly 30 meters across for length and maximum width, with plenty of room all over and the various necessary fixtures upheld off the ground. It is raised up about 2 meters off the ground. Its back half is partially covered by the overhanging roof of the backstage area a dozen meters above.
The backstage area spreads out about 10 meters from both sides and the back of the stage, being somewhat indoorsy and absolutely full of things one could expect an excellent stage production to have, including, of course, sturdy rafters which lead up to the ceiling area overtop the stage. Both sides have had time to arrange for some extra things to be brought in.
Goal: With a leadup of fifteen minutes before acts, and a half an hour where both of your performers are onstage at once, you have a show to put on, and that is not getting ruined by this overbooking. So, with Rudolf and Alexis up on stage, and Pineapples and Cybil each operating their abilities and managing a three-person stage crew, outperform your opponents!
Given the vastly different skill-sets of the competitors, the goal is to execute on your vision better than your opponent executes on theirs. You will be judged and voted on the following criteria, in decreasing priority:

Feasibility - Whether your performance is actually within the bounds of what your Stand and Stats would imply.
Skill Use - A close second in relevance; how well you integrate your User Skills and Stats into your performance. While your Skills will help in completing this objective, they do not provide an automatic advantage by merely existing and must be woven into your strats, as per usual. Even the best of artists can have abysmal live performances.
Stand Use - Similar to the above, and similarly important. How cool, creative, and well-integrated is your Stand use. Put another way, wow the judges, voters, and viewers at home! This is more or less just the same as before.
Environment Use - How well you use and integrate the auditorium - its features, its backstage, its stage, and the hearts and passions of its occupants - into your performance.
Efficiency - How much quality footage you obtain and how well you use your time. This does not mean that setup for more complex performances is automatically penalized, but do try to minimize ‘deadtime’ and maximize the amount you perform.

Additional Information: There is a huge simp for TD/MD in the audience of the match, and he is connected enough that he will have both of you successfully and canonically killed if you ruin the show before the headliner can go on; therefore, murdering your opponents or audience members (“the ol’ Abraham Lincoln Tech” as they say in the biz) on an audience member is a loss condition. Not at all a moral thing for the record.
Stage Crew members for the respective teams (Harry, Mark, and John on the MFAs, Thorn, Dusk, and Luna on the Highrollers, if you care about their names) have 4s in strength, agility, endurance, Stagehand, and Backup; pretty much, anything their associated team asks them to do, they’ll be able to do, at minimum, competently. Though they won’t, like, murder for you. Generally you can use them for moving props on/off stage, extra bodies or on-stage back up performers, speaker and soundboard control, and/or on-stage camera crew as well as managing any other stage controls. Pretty much everything save for pyronetics and lighting is in their purview.
There are also dedicated lighting guys, totally neutral in your squabbles, who are going to do an entirely too good job adjusting their focus and making things work exactly as is needed so attention is on the stars of the show. They will also be coordinated with a third party camera crew that will be streaming the live feed onto screens for the audience. These feeds can be replaced or split screened with your own crew’s footage, but otherwise they will generally be in control of what is shown on-screen.
Players can be assumed to already have well-rehearsed their plans of action, the in-universe basis for the modified plans of the match, and have knowledge about every aspect of the stage, even if parts of their initial plan obviously need to be modified to account for new challengers also occupying stage space. If something performance related isn’t insanely, “years of training to do competently required” level hard, but would still require some practice ahead of time, they have had it to, at absolute max, somewhere between a 2 and a 3. Players, don’t overly-game this, though; the ‘stars’ of your performances should be the sheeted unique abilities of you, your skills, and your Stands.
All stands can be seen on camera and on the live feed for the audience's viewing pleasure.

Team	Combatant	JoJolity
Judecca Highrollers	Alexis Williams	“This one is for the guy who keeps yelling from the Balcony, and it’s called ‘We Hate You, Please Die.’” Gymnastics is a sport of rhythm and pace, this performance should be no different for keeping your momentum. Make as seamless transitions as you can between the acts of your performance!
Judecca Highrollers	Cybil Antoine	“Prepare to have your minds obliterated by… The boys! And Crash!” You have a whole crew of people working for you here, no need to do any heavy lifting by yourself. This is their job after all, better put them to work since that’s what they are here for. Make the most use out of your stage hands in your performance!
Masters of Funky Action	Rudolf "Nureyev" Pavlova	“What is with this band? They’ve… changed. Have you noticed they don’t have instruments? Where’s all this amazing noise coming from?” Keeping the audience’s attention for a full 30 minutes should be a piece of cake for the world’s greatest dancer, you can keep the party rocking even between your different acts. Make as seamless transitions as you can between the acts of your performance!
Masters of Funky Action	Admiral Pineapples	“You and your fireballs and your demon hipster chicks / you’re talking the talk and it’s pretty slick / You think you’re so great, but you’re missing the point / You gotta have friendship and courage and whatever!” You’re all in this show together, you and your crew of stage hand. Everybody should be contributing here, no man left behind. Make the most use out of your stage hands in your performance!

Link to the Official Player Spreadsheet
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(DFAroto) Week 11 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 3

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-11-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-11-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10)

Cardinals ATS: 7-3-0 49ers ATS: 5-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Cardinals 17.5 49ers 27.5

Cardinals

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DT DJ Jones (OUT) LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Q) CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): RB Chase Edmonds (OUT) OT Justin Murray (Q) RB David Johnson (monitor)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Christian Kirk (23%) Larry Fitzgerald (20%) Kenyan Drake (16%) David Johnson (14%) KeeSean Johnson (12%) Damiere Byrd (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Kenyan Drake (64%, 16, 7) David Johnson (43%, 6, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Although Arizona’s season has taken a downward turn the past few games, Kyler Murray (downgrade) continues to show why he was taken #1 overall in May. He predictably shredded Tampa Bay’s league worst passing defense last week, and is currently in the top-5 for fantasy QBs on the season. For the second time in three games, he’ll do battle with the #1 pass defense by DVOA metrics. The last time these teams met, Murray was able to go over 23 points on the strength of an efficient game with a solid rushing floor. Despite San Francisco’s stingy pass defense - they give up the second fewest FPPG - Murray still belongs in the QB1 discussion this week. His solid receiving corps and ability to make plays with his legs should help to offset the 49ers immense defensive talent.
Last week finally brought the Christian Kirk (downgrade) breakout that owners were waiting for. He exploded for 138 yards and 3 TDs, surprisingly his first time reaching the end zone this year. Unfortunately, his reward for this performance is a matchup with the #1 pass defense by DVOA that also gives up the 4th fewest FPPG to wideouts. It will be tough for him to approach last week’s numbers, but his volume and clear connection with Murray make him a solid WR2/3 that is too hot to bench. Larry Fitzgerald also benefited from last week’s matchup, getting over 10 points (.5 PPR) for the first time since Week 3. He’s not producing the chunk plays from early in the season, and Kirk’s emergence combined with the “spread the wealth” air-raid have pushed him into more flex territory. The tough matchup this week is a further downgrade, so consider benching Fitz for someone with more upside this week. None of the other ARI pass catchers have the consistency to be used in fantasy, especially this week. Andy Isabella and KeeSean Johnson have both shown flashes the last two games, so keep an eye on them in deep leagues, and make sure they are owned in dynasty/keeper leagues. Charles Clay is not a streaming option at TE.
RB Breakdown
During his past two “healthy” games played, David Johnson (downgrade) has a combined negative 0.3 fantasy points scored. Watching the tape from last week shows a back that is clearly not operating at 100%, so it’s tough to trust coach Kingsbury’s declaration that Johnson will be an active part of a “timeshare” this weekend. Kenyan Drake (upgrade PPR) has looked much more explosive than Johnson, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him end up getting a majority of the work. The Niners are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air - they have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG but have only the 17th ranked run DVOA - but their defense overall may be able to limit the Cardinals ability to move the ball and score points. Johnson is a risky RB2/3 this week that should probably be benched if owners have other options, while Drake has some upside in PPR as an RB2. He went off against the 49ers two weeks ago for 162 yards and a TD. Approach both backs with caution, but Drake is the much-preferred play at the moment.

49ers

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): DE Jonathan Bullard (OUT) CB Tramaine Brock (Q) DE Zach Kerr (Q) LB Terrell Suggs (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): RB Matt Breida (D) K Robbie Gould (D) TE George Kittle (D) OT Joe Staley (OUT) RB Raheem Mostert (Q) WR Dante Pettis (Q) WR Emmanuel Sander (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Emmanuel Sanders vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): George Kittle (25%) Deebo Samuel (17%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Dante Pettis (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Tevin Coleman (50%, 13, 4) Matt Breida (28%, 12, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
An epic showdown with the Seahawks last week saw the 49ers take their first loss of the season, and at least some of the blame can be placed on the onset of injuries to San Francisco’s offensive weapons. Jimmy Garrapolo was working without his top TE, his top WR, and one of his top RBs by the end of MNF last week. Things don’t project to be much better this week on that front, but the matchup does give Jimmy G some streaming appeal. The Cardinals have stud CB Patrick Peterson back, but are still having trouble slowing down opposing passing games. In the last four weeks, Arizona is giving up the fourth most FPPG to QBs. Working in a run-heavy offense without any elite pass-catchers will limit his ceiling, but Jimmy G is a serviceable QB2 streamer based on the matchup, and the boost that playing Arizona’s high pace-of-play should bring.
There are quite a few doubtful and questionable tags on this 49ers offense at the moment, and it’s possible that the Niners err on the side of caution considering they are heavy home favorites against the Cardinals on Sunday. Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle are both doubtful to suit up, and after not practicing all week are looking likely to sit. That leaves Deebo Samuel (upgrade) as the likely top target this week, and the matchup puts him firmly in the WR3 mix. The Cardinals have given up the 10th most FPPG to WRs and have a bottom-third pass DVOA. Assuming both Kittle and Sanders are out, Samuel could have a big day. Kendrick Bourne was second on the team in targets, and put together a solid fantasy line as well. He’s no more than a WR4 streamer, but there are worse dart throws in season-long or DFS formats. If Sanders or Kittle do get cleared, make sure to weigh your options and be wary of limited snap counts or the possibility of re-injury.
RB Breakdown
With all of the injuries for SF in their passing game, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them lean on their running game even more heavily this week. Matt Breida is doubtful to play, so it’ll be the Tevin Coleman (upgrade) show on Sunday, with Raheem Mostert (flex upgrade PPR) mixing in for a few carries and some pass game work. The Cardinals aren’t an imposing matchup on the ground - 13th most FPPG and bottom-third run DVOA - so expect both backs to have some success. Their position as home favorites also helps to establish a solid rushing floor. Coleman should be viewed as a high-end RB2 with good TD upside, and Mostert is a decent flex option with an upgrade in PPR leagues.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Cardinals 20

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4)

Texans ATS: 5-4-0 Ravens ATS: 4-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Texans 23.75 Ravens 27.75

Texans

Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #8
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #28
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): DT Michael Pierce (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Will Fuller (OUT) T Laremy Tunsil (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeAndre Hopkins (30%) Will Fuller (21%) Keke Coutee (13%) Kenny Stills (12%) Duke Johnson (11%) Darren Fells (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 9: Carlos Hyde (54%, 19, 0) Duke Johnson (46%, 12, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Texans are sitting at 6-3 heading into Week 11, good for first in the AFC South. Coming out of their bye week, they get a red hot Baltimore Ravens squad in perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the year. The last time Deshaun Watson faced Lamar Jackson was Oct 1, 2016, Watson’s Clemson Tigers rallied to beat Jackson and the No. 3 ranked Louisville Cardinals, 42-36, a game in which the talented QBs produced eight touchdowns and 854 yards of offense (Espn.com). The Vegas oddsmakers project this game to have similar fireworks, as it carries the second highest projected point total of Week 11. BAL has been very good against the pass this year, even without the acquisition of CB Marcus Peters, which has bolstered their secondary - they only cede 15.5 FPPG to QBs - in Week 7, they held Russel Wilson, who is cut from the same cloth as Watson, to only 241 yards passing and one touchdown. Still, start your studs, in a projected negative game-script Watson should see plenty of an opportunity to air it out, just treat him as a lower-end QB1 this week.
Deandre Hopkins has had a somewhat disappointing year for owners that burned premier draft capital on the stud wideout. His average depth of target is sitting at the lowest point (9.94 yard average target) in his career, but have no fear - his 92 targets are third most in the league behind Michael Thomas (103 targets) and Keenan Allen (95) (Rotoworld). Continue to fire him up as a top-tier WR1, the big weeks will come. Will Fuller was officially ruled out Saturday afternoon, so he won’t be operating as Watson’s #2 option this week. Kenny Stills (upgrade standard) will likely see more looks with Fuller out, so owners should take a long look at Stills this week. His potential for a boom week is further upgraded by the matchup - BAL is giving up 22.1 FPPG to WRs. He slides into borderline WR3 value, with a slight upgrade in standard leagues. Houston has been running a significant amount of two-TE sets, affording both Darren Fells and Jordan Akins significant playing time. Fells is the PPR TE10 this season, but he’s no more than a low-end TE1 that is largely touchdown dependent (what TE isn’t?).
RB Breakdown
The matchup projects as a Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard) week, as BAL is weak against the run and strong against the pass. Look for HOU to try and establish Hyde in the early going to set up the pass, he’s a good bet to find paydirt this week - BAL gives up 17.8 FPPG to RBs. Duke Johnson is still too untrustworthy from a fantasy perspective, he’s only received 10+ touches in two games this season. Continue to fade him, although the potential shootout could give him additional looks, especially if the Ravens take a lead in the early going.

Ravens

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): S Tashaun Gipson (Q) CB Bradley Roby (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL): WR Marquise Brown (Q, expected to play) WR Chris Moore (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Mark Andrews (25%) Marquise Brown (22%) Nick Boyle (11%) Willie Snead (10%) Hayden Hurst (8%) Mark Ingram (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Mark Ingram (50%, 15, 8) Justice Hill (26%, 3, 0) Gus Edwards (24%, 4, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Ravens have been absolute fire this season, and it’s because Lamar Jackson (upgrade) has taken a huge step forward. With a full summer for John Harbaugh to build the offense around Jackson’s strengths, they have begun to realize the full potential of their stud QB - BAL sits in 2nd in the league for Total Offense with 421 yards per game, 19th for Passing yards per game, and 1st for Rushing yards per game. The showdown between Jackson and Watson will likely determine the AFC MVP race, as both QBs are currently vying for the award. HOU hasn’t been great against the pass - sitting at 20th in Pass DVOA and ceding 20.2 FPPG to QBs and 27.7 FPPG to WRs. Fire up Jackson as usual as a top-3 QB1.
Stud rookie receiver Marquise Brown (upgrade) is operating at less than 100%, but is expected to play through his ailments this week, and he draws an extremely favorable matchup against a burnable HOU secondary. If active he needs to be in all lineups as an upside WR3, this week projects as a boom week in the assumed barn barner. No other wideout is worthy of consideration in this offense, but if Brown is somehow inactive, Willie Snead or Miles Boykin could be treated as desperation flex options, with Boykin being the preference. Mark Andrews (upgrade) got back into the endzone last week, putting up 6-53-2. He’s locked and loaded as Lamar Jackson’s go-to, and needs to be in all lineups every week - HOU only gives up 5.6 FPPG to TEs, but Andrews has earned himself matchup proof consideration.
RB Breakdown
In the blowout win against CIN last week, all of the running backs recieved snaps. Still, it’s Mark Ingram’s (downgrade) backfield. HOU is much tougher against the run than the pass, but Ingram’s goal line involvement should stabilize his floor. Roll him out there as an RB2 even in the tough matchup - HOU only gives up 16 FPPG to RBs. Gus Edwards (stash) is Ingram’s handcuff, and owners could look to stash him as he would have immediate value if something were to happen to Ingram. Rookie Justice Hill is a distant third option for this team.
Score Prediction: Texans 34, Ravens 31

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Patriots ATS: 6-3-0 Eagles ATS: 4-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Patriots 24.25 Eagles 20.75

Patriots

Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (PHI) Run DVOA: #8
Injuries to Watch DEF (PHI): LB Nigel Bradham (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NE): RB Damien Harris (Q) TE Matt LeCosse (Q) WR Gunner Olszewski (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Julian Edelman (25%) Mohamed Sanu (23%) James White (17%) Phillip Dorsett (13%) Rex Burkhead (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 9: James White (42%, 11, 3) Rex Burkhead (36%, 5, 2) Sony Michel (22%, 5, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Well, that escalated quickly. Heralded as possibly the best defense of all time, NE got boat raced by BAL in a Week 9 loss before heading into their bye week. They had no answer to Lamar Jackson, and will face similar QBs twice more this season (HOU, BUF). Tom Brady (upgrade) draws an extremely fantasy friendly bounce back matchup, going against an Eagles secondary that has been consistently torched by opposing quarterbacks - ceding 18 FPPG. That being said, PHI secondary is as healthy as it’s been all season, but Brady still needs to be active in most lineups as solid QB1.
As usual, Belicheck’s schemes and personal groups have been difficult to predict on a game by game basis, driving fantasy owners mad. Julian Edelman (upgrade) has been the only sure thing in the NE offense this season. He’s the PPR WR9, so fire him up as a WR1 in the great matchup - PHI has hemorrhaged 27.4 FPPG to wideouts. Mohamed Sanu (upgrade) has seen the second most targets behind Edleman since being traded before Week 8. In fact, he saw a team-high 14 targets in the loss to BAL. He’s the second best bet behind Edleman, and should be active in most fantasy lineups as a solid WR3. Outside of the two mentioned above, it would be like trying to capture lightning in a bottle. Phillip Dorsett has thrived on the deep ball, but PHI is only giving up explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on 8% of passes (sharpfootballstats.com). Treat him as a long shot WR4. Rookie wideout N’Keal Harry is expected back at some point after being activated from the IR, but he’s no more than a low upside stash. Don’t consider a tight end on the Patriots right now.
RB Breakdown
The takeaway for this backfield from their Week 9 loss to BAL would be the snap count of the running backs when trailing, something that NE has done just once this season. Sony Michel (downgrade) will not be on the field in passing situations, which is to be expected, but Rex Burkhead was as equally involved as longtime PPR dynamo James White (upgrade). While NE isn’t expected to trail this week, against PHI has been tough sledding for run games this year, so expect White to be an extension of the run game, as they utilize him on quick short passes. PHI is only ceding 15.1 FPPG to RBs - so Sony Michel will need to find paydirt to carry value this week. Burkhead is no more than a desperation flex as long as White is healthy.

Eagles

Opp (NE) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (NE) Run DVOA: #14
Injuries to Watch DEF (NE): S Patrick Chung (Q) S Nate Ebner (Q) DT Danny Shelton (Q) DE John Simon (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI): WR Alshon Jeffery (OUT) RB Darren Sproles (OUT, IR) RB Jordan Howard (Q, GTD)
Key WCB matchups: None. Gilmore was expected to shadow Alshon Jeffery (OUT)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Zach Ertz (24%) Alshon Jeffery (24%) Nelson Agholor (17%) Dallas Goedert (12%) Miles Sanders (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 9: Jordan Howard (48%, 20, 1) Miles Sanders (40%, 13, 3) Darren Sproles (12%, 3, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Philadelphia and Carson Wentz (downgrade) will be without their only fantasy viable wideout, Alshon Jeffery this week. Wentz hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective this season, sitting as the QB12, and a matchup against perhaps the leagues best defense isn’t the place to call his number - NE is giving up only 9.5 FPPG to QBs, league best.
Without Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins, and Jordan Matthews will be their top options, but none are usable for fantasy against the league's best secondary - NE is only ceding 12.7 FPPG to wideouts, league best. Sans Jeffery, it’s possible that stud CB Stephon Gilmore shadows the only true receiving threat for the Eagles, Zach Ertz (downgrade). Ertz is sure to be peppered with targets, but the emergence of Dallas Goedert has hurt his ceiling potential. Still, most owners have no choice but to get Ertz active, just be aware it could be a floor game - NE is giving up 4.5 FPPG to TEs, 3rd best.
RB Breakdown
With longtime veteran Darren Sproles (OUT) headed to IR, the Eagles signed another vet in Jay Ajayi. Regardless, he’s no more than a handcuff as he forms the third part of the RBBC with Jordan Howard (downgrade, GTD) and Miles Sanders (downgrade). This week projects as a floor week for the entire PHI offense and they should be avoided if possible. Sanders probably has the highest ceiling due to his involvement in the passing game as he should be utilized in short throws plenty, but he’s no more than a RB3/flex in the tough matchup - NE only gives up 10.5 FPPG to RBs, league best. If Howard sits, Sanders owners can be slightly more confident about firing him up.
Score Prediction: Patriots 28, Eagles 13

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-10.5)

Bengals ATS: 3-6-0 Raiders ATS: 6-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Bengals 19 Raiders 29.5

Bengals

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #16
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): S Lamarcus Joyner (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): WR AJ Green (OUT) OG Alex Redmond (OUT) OT Bobby Hart (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Boyd (25%) Auden Tate (19%) Alex Erickson (10%) Tyler Eifert (10%) Joe Mixon (8%) Gio Bernard (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Joe Mixon (76%, 32, 3) Gio Bernard (24%, 5, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bengals are doing their best to get some additional talent evaluation out of their lost season, and rookie QB Ryan Finley is likely to start the rest of the way barring injury or a complete collapse. Finley did not show well last week, albeit against a quality Ravens’ secondary, and will continue to be without AJ Green for the foreseeable future. Oakland is a great matchup on paper - giving up the 5th most FPPG and sporting a bottom-tier pass DVOA - but it’s not clear that Finley will be able to take advantage of it. He is no more than a desperation QB2 streamer: he could be the start of the week, or end up benched after throwing multiple interceptions. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes here, but at least the matchup is good.
With Green still out, Tyler Boyd (upgrade PPR) should see all the targets he can handle. He struggled a bit against Marlon Humphrey and co. last week, but will get much more favorable matchups this week against Oakland. The Raiders give up the 7th most FPPG to WRs, so Boyd should be viewed as a WR2 with an upgrade in PPR formats. Auden Tate has shown well in his second season in the NFL, but he too fell victim to the Ravens’ secondary. Look for him to bounce back some this week as well, but his ceiling isn’t extremely high with Finley under center and the Bengals seemingly content to run out the clock on this season (literally). View him as a decent flex option considering the potential shootout conditions and his role as the #2 in the passing game. Alex Erickson and Tyler Eifert are not trustworthy fantasy options at this point, and neither should likely be owned outside of extremely deep leagues.
RB Breakdown
Running your young stud RB into walls of defenders 30 times in a blowout loss doesn’t make a ton of sense for a rebuilding team with no offensive line, but there’s a lot that doesn’t make sense with the Bengals this season. Regardless, Joe Mixon (upgrade standard) owners had to be happy to see coach Zac Taylor fully commit to him as the centerpiece of the offense, even in a game that featured negative game flow throughout. His floor and ceiling would be a lot higher if Taylor designed more creative ways to get the ball into his hands (misdirection screens, line him up out wide…) but at least he’s getting touches. The Raiders are somewhat vulnerable on the ground - allowing the 11th most FPPG and ranking bottom-half in DVOA - and the high projected team totals give him decent scoring upside. View Mixon as a volume based RB2 and hope Finley can orchestrate a few scoring drives to get Mixon in position for a TD. Gio Bernard is just a handcuff for Mixon owners, but a valuable one nonetheless.

Raiders

Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): CB Dre Kirkpatrick (OUT) DT Geno Atkins (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): OT David Sharpe (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Darren Waller (23%) Tyrell Williams (18%) Hunter Renfrow (15%) Ryan Grant (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Josh Jacobs (52%, 19, 5) Jalen Richard (38%, 6, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Riding a two-game win streak, the Raiders will look to make it three in a row at home, this time against the winless Bengals. Derek Carr (upgrade) has been a game manager in the truest sense of the term this year - he hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards yet this year but has only four interceptions in total. Jon Gruden isn’t asking Carr to do much, but when he’s given Carr the chance to throw downfield the results have generally been positive. This week sets up well: the Bengals have given up the third most FPPG to QBs, and are the worst pass defense and worst defense overall by DVOA metrics. Vegas projects this game to be a shootout, so despite Carr’s somewhat lowered ceiling due to his role in this offense, he’s a high-end QB2 this week in a potential blow-up spot. Owners will just have to hope that Cincinnati does their part to make this a high scoring affair.
Similar to Carr, the Raiders receiving options have been productive, but the volume hasn’t always been there. Darren Waller (upgrade) is a top-5 TE in .5 PPR formats, but hasn’t had a blow up game in a while. This week sets up perfectly for that to change, so make sure he’s in your lineup. Tyrell Williams (upgrade standard) simply doesn’t have much value if he isn’t scoring TDs, but his chances for one this week are strong. View him as a borderline WR2 this week, buoyed by his ability to get in the end zone. In PPR formats, he is more of a WR3. Hunter Renfrow is just a low volume possession receiver, so he’s no more than a TD-dependent WR4/5 this week despite the great matchup.
RB Breakdown
If you play in daily fantasy leagues, Josh Jacobs (upgrade) has to be a top consideration across the board. The Raiders are big home favorites, he’s receiving a solid weekly workload and most red zone work, and the Bengals give up the 3rd most FPPG to RBs. Jalen Richard is still stealing pass game work, but that is more of a concern in games the Raiders will be chasing a lead. This projects to be the exact opposite script, so fire up Jacobs as a solid RB1 this week. Richard is only on the radar in extremely deep PPR leagues, and would likely cede most early down work to DeAndre Washington in the event Jacobs were to miss a game.
Score Prediction: Raiders 31, Bengals 17

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Bears ATS: 3-6-0 Rams ATS: 6-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Bears 17 Rams 23.5

Bears

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #16
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): CB Darious Williams (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CHI): TE Trey Burton (OUT) TE Adam Shaheen (OUT) RB David Montgomery (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Allen Robinson vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Allen Robinson (27%) Tarik Cohen (18%) Taylor Gabriel (13%) Anthony Miller (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: David Montgomery (60%, 17, 1) Tarik Cohen (53%, 7, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It took a home matchup against a struggling Lions team without it’s starting QB, but the Bears finally broke their losing streak. Mitchell Trubisky (downgrade) was abysmal in the first half, but managed to put together a solid second half and finished with his second-best fantasy line of the season (19.72 points). Still, the Bears offense has lacked any semblance of rhythm, and Trubisky routinely misses throws that an NFL-starter should make. The Rams present a moderate challenge, and have been an improved pass defense unit with Jalen Ramsey in the fold. Over the last 4 weeks they’ve given up the 9th fewest FPPG, and their pass DVOA is right about league average. The low projected point totals suggest this may be a grind-it-out game between two teams whose offenses are not playing well at the moment, so Trubisky remains no more than a low-end QB2 this week.
Working as Trubisky’s top option in Matt Nagy’s broken offense has made it tough for Allen Robinson (downgrade) to produce up to his potential this year. This week he’ll likely face shadow coverage from one of the league’s best corners, Jalen Ramsey. Just last week, Ramsey proved he will travel into the slot when he followed Juju Smith-Schuster all game long. His coverage has been nothing short of lockdown, so Robinson is in danger of being the next victim. His best shot is if the Rams have success on offense, forcing the Bears into a high volume of passing, which might offset efficiency concerns. Consider Robinson a risky WR3, albeit one who does have the requisite talent to beat Ramsey for a big play or two. If Trubisky can get it to him that is. Avoid Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller unless you are in an extremely deep league and just going for a low odds lottery ticket. If forced to do so, Gabriel is by far the better option, as his big play ability has actually allowed him to produce a few decent lines this season. Trey Burton was placed on IR this week, so owners can continue to ignore the TE position here.
RB Breakdown
I think Matt Nagy just doesn’t want us to have fun things. David Montgomery (ankle, Q) entered last week with significant momentum and an excellent matchup, but managed only 60 scoreless yards on 17 carries and got only one target in the pass game. To add injury to insult, he’s now questionable to play after “lightly” rolling his ankle in practice this week. The late evening kickoff makes Monty a risky start unless you have a plug-n-play MNF option, and the matchup against the Rams elite rush defense makes things even riskier. If he does end up sitting, it would theoretically open up a few more touches for Tarik Cohen (upgrade PPR). Nagy is unlikely to run him up the middle 15+ times (you never know though), but the pass catching should give him a solid floor. View Cohen as a low-end flex option if Monty plays, and more of an RB2/3 if he doesn’t. Obviously, Cohen’s value is higher in PPR leagues. If Montgomery does play, he’s a risky RB2 with the workload concern and difficult matchup.

Rams

Opp (CHI) Pass DVOA: #7
Opp (CHI) Run DVOA: #12
Injuries to Watch DEF (CHI): LB Isaiah Irving (OUT) LB Danny Trevathan (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): WR Brandin Cooks (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (OUT) TE Gerald Everett (Q) TE Tyler Higbee (Q) Johnny Mundt (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Cooper Kupp (25%) Robert Woods (20%) Gerald Everett (16%) Todd Gurley (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Todd Gurley (74%, 12, 4) Malcolm Brown (16%, 5, 0) Darrell Henderson (10%, 4, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Life comes at you fast in the NFL. One minute the Rams were contending for a super bowl with a roster full of young stars seemingly at the peak of their talents for years to come. Only nine months later, things look entirely different. Jared Goff (downgrade) has looked horrendous this year, and whether it’s due to defensive adjustments, the lack of a game-changing RB, or just a player being exposed for what he really is, there are serious questions about whether Goff looks like an NFL-starting QB at the moment. The Bears are not the same fearsome pass defense unit they were last year - 13th most FPPG to QBs but 7th best DVOA - but they still present a challenge. Goff should likely be on benches for one of the lower projected scoring matchups of the week, although at least he’s playing at home where he’s been much better in his career. Consider him a mid to low-end QB2 until we see signs of life, and look for a more attractive streamer if at all possible this week.
The Rams receiving corps will go to battle without the services of Brandin Cooks (concussion) again this weekend. There is legitimate concern about whether he’ll be able to play again this year considering the multitude of concussion related issues he’s faced. Cooper Kupp was shockingly held to zero catches last week, and it’s a sign of just how bad Goff was last week that Kupp was unable to register a single catch. Kupp’s chemistry with Goff is simply too good to be stopped again this week, so he’s due for a bounce-back. The matchup is tough - the Bears have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to WRs - but we know Kupp can get his regardless of the opponent. Robert Woods put up a solid 7-95 line last week, but he has overall been a disappointment for owners that likely drafted him earlier than Kupp. Goff is known for playing much better at home than on the road, so both Kupp and Woods should be in lineups this week. Kupp is a solid WR2, with an obvious upgrade in PPR leagues, and Woods is on the WR2/3 borderline due in part to the tough matchup. Gerald Everett has been the top TE for the Rams this year, and looks likely to play through his questionable tag. Tyler Higbee is less likely to suit up, based on media reports, and his absence would give Everett a nice target boost. The Bears are actually quite vulnerable to TEs- 5th most FPPG allowed - so Everett is a back-end TE1 this week. Just be aware the floor for everyone in this passing game is lowered by Goff’s abysmal play of late, although playing at home seemingly offsets that to some extent.
RB Breakdown
The Rams offense may have hit rock-bottom in last week’s loss to the Steelers. Todd Gurley was relatively efficient in his limited touches (12-73), but his lack of passing game work and limited scoring opportunities have really limited his value this year. It’s unwise to expect a much heavier workload this week, so Gurley is no more than a low floor RB2 this week, with a downgrade in PPR leagues. The Bears give up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so there is some room for the Rams to get their run game going. Malcolm Brown is the handcuff for Gurley, while rookie Darrell Henderson is getting only the occasional carry or target. Neither is on the fantasy radar as long as Gurley is leading the backfield.
Score Prediction: Rams 20, Bears 16

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (Mexico City)

Chiefs ATS: 5-5-0 Chargers ATS: 3-5-2
Projected Team Totals: Chiefs 27.75 Chargers 24.25

Chiefs

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (KC): TE Blake Bell (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyreek Hill (24%) Sammy Watkins (23%) Travis Kelce (21%) Demarcus Robinson (12%) Mecole Hardman (9%) Damien Williams (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Damien Williams (73%, 24, 5) Darrel Williams (21%, 3, 1) Darwin Thompson (6%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Coming off a surprising loss to the Tennessee Titans, Patrick Mahomes (upgrade) and crew will look to get back on track against the maddeningly inconsistent Chargers. The Bolts have not been good on defense this year, yet despite ranking in the bottom half for Pass DVOA, have only given up 14.2 FPPG to QBs. That’s likely to change, as the Chargers haven’t faced the league's most explosive passing offense yet, and this game carries the highest projected point total of Week 11. Fire up Mahomes as usual.
Tyreek Hill (upgrade) converted a career-high 19 targets into 11-157-1 last week, and he has routinely burned stud CB Casey Hayward and the Chargers to the tune of seven touchdowns in six career games against the Bolts (Rotoworld). Fire him as top-2 option at WR - despite LAC only ceding 17.9 FPPG to wideouts. Sammy Watkins continues to receive plenty of targets (17 in last 3 games), and owners can treat him as an upside WR3 - he’s only had one blowup game this season, but that should change in a hurry as he and Kansas City are at full strength again. Demarcus Robinson played a full-time role in the offensive in Week 10, and his field stretching ability along with rookie Mecole Hardman only make this offense more explosive. Both are hard to trust as they live on the deep ball, but if you are in a pinch both could be used as desperation WR4/5’s, just know their floor is zero. Continue to fire up Travis Kelce as a TE1.
RB Breakdown
With LeSean McCoy a healthy scratch in Week 10, Damien Williams (upgrade) has resumed his role as the lead dog in the KC backfield. He handled 24 total touches last week, and if that continues he’ll make his way back into the RB1 conversation. The Bolts have been atrocious against the run, giving up 21.5 FPPG to RBs and ranking bottom 10 in Run DVOA. Fire up Williams as an upside RB2. Darrel Williams looks to be Damien’s handcuff, but isn’t much of a stash due to the involvement of the other running backs. In the event of a Damien Williams injury, it’s anyone’s guess who would take over, making Darryl an unappealing stash.

Chargers

Opp (KC) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (KC) Run DVOA: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (KC): DE Emmanuel Ogbah (OUT) DE Alex Okafor (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): WR Geremy Davis (D) RB Justin Jackson (D) OT Russell Okung (Q) OT Sam Tevi (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Keenan Allen (26%) Hunter Henry (22%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (17%) Melvin Gordon (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Melvin Gordon (58%, 23, 1) Austin Ekeler (42%, 8, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers have been one of the most difficult teams to predict this season, following up a Week 9 upset of the vaunted Green Bay Packers with a loss to the surging Raiders - a game that they controlled for much of the first half but were never able to put away. Phillip Rivers (downgrade) has honestly looked washed in recent weeks, and it’s hurting the production of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. KC has been great against the pass, and Rivers can’t be trusted as more than a low-end QB1. With the game expected to have negative game-script for the Chargers, their usual 4th quarter comeback could fuel the volume to keep him in the QB1 conversation. Allen and Williams both have winnable matchups facing Charvarius Ward (PPF No. 27 ranked CB), Kenall Fuller (No. 57), Morris Claiborne (No. 64) and Bashaud Breeland (No. 119) (Rotoworld). Still, the Chargers have the No. 21 scoring offense, and will likely look to establish the run. Since returning from injury, Hunter Henry has been the preferred option in this passing game. Continue to fire him up as a TE1.
RB Breakdown
Finally looking like his old self, Melvin Gordon (upgrade) has worked his way back into the RB1 conversation. The only problem is that Austin Ekeler (upgrade PPR) has taken almost all of the passing game work. If the Chargers manage to establish the run and stay in this game, it could be a very productive week for Gordon. That being said, if they fall behind quickly, Ekeler should have his hands full. Either way, both running backs can be treated as RB2’s, with Gordon getting the edge due to his goal line opportunities.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 31, Chargers 20

Week 6 - Matchup Strategy Guide (Part 1) - DFA

Part 2 right here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/nfl/week-6-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

What’s up fellow fantasy connoisseurs, welcome to Week 6 of DFA’s matchup strategy guide (Part 1). We decided to try out a different format last week and would appreciate any and all feedback on it. Thanks for reading and make sure to check out Part 2 which is dropping tomorrow with the rest of the games.
Additionally, we dropped our first Fantasy Basketball article a couple days ago and will be continuing to produce content for NBA fantasy as we gear up for draft season. Check it out here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/
Glossary:
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS= Against the spread

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at London)

Panthers ATS: 3-2-0 Buccaneers ATS: 2-3-0
Projected Point Totals: Panthers 25.5 Buccaneers 23
This Game Kicks off at 9:30am ET. Don’t forget to set your lineups

Panthers

Opp (TB) Pass DVOA: #22
Opp (TB) Run DVOA: #1
Injuries to Watch DEF (TB): ILB Jack Cichy (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CAR): QB Cam Newton (OUT) RB Christian McCaffery (expected to play) G Trai Turner (Q) T Greg Little (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Christian McCaffrey (22%) D.J. Moore (22%) Curtis Samuel (21%) Greg Olsen (17%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Christian McCaffrey (78%, 25, 8) Reggie Bonnafon (15%, 5, 0) Alex Armah (7%, 1, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Week 6 slate provides a grudge match between two NFC South contenders, with the loser facing an uphill battle to win the division. Cam Newton may have lost Carolina’s Week 2 TNF matchup against the Bucs with his inaccurate arm, but they still had a chance to win the game with CMC’s legs in the closing seconds, until he was stuffed at the goal line. Kyle Allen (upgrade) has been used primarily as a game manager and taken a backseat to the CMC show, but with TB having the No. 1 run defense so far, they may be pushed to get the ball in the air this week to win. He can be considered a back-end QB1. Curtis Samuel (upgrade) and D.J. Moore (upgrade) were both victims of Newton’s struggles in the first meeting of the year, but Tampa’s secondary was ripe for exploitation - Newton just couldn’t get the ball to his speedy receivers, missing Samuel on several deep throws or getting the ball to him late, causing him to be tackled well short of where the play could have gone. TB is giving up the most FPPG to opposing wideouts and Carolina will begin to hit on the deep ball at some point, this week could very well be it. Consider both upside WR3’s. Greg Olsen also draws an extremely favorable matchup, TB is giving up the second most FPPG to tight ends (12.5) and Olsen should be considered a top-6 tight end this week.
RB Breakdown
Christian McCaffery continues to eat and is still in the mix for the overall RB1, even going against the best run defense in the league so far. His involvement in all facets of the game keep his floor high. He’s questionable but expected to play, owners should grab Reggie Bonnafun in case CMC’s health goes sideways before kickoff.

Buccaneers

Opp (CAR) Pass DVOA: #4
Opp (CAR) Run DVOA: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (CAR): DT Gerald McCoy (Q) DB/LB Christian Miller (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TB): WR Breshad Perriman (OUT) T Demar Dotson (OUT) G Alex Cappa (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: Mike Evans vs. James Bradberry (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Chris Godwin (26%) Mike Evans (23%) Dare Ogunbowale (10%) Breshad Perriman (9%) O.J. Howard (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Ronald Jones (34%, 11, 3) Peyton Barber (34%, 9, 1) Dare Ogunbowale (32%, 3, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The roller coaster ride of having Jameis Winston on your fantasy squad continues to provide it’s peaks and valleys. There have been more peaks this season than years past and Winston is the #10 QB through 5 weeks. Even in a down week loss to the Saints last week, Winston put up a respectable 17.5 fantasy points and didn’t turn the ball over once. It’s possible he’s turned a corner, but it’s also just as likely that the next bust week is right around the corner… The emergence of Chris Godwin has certainly helped the oft-scrutinized quarterback, and Godwin has become a true WR1 in fantasy - he’s sitting pretty as the overall WR1 through 5 weeks. Godwin’s ascent has brought fellow wideout Mike Evans back to earth, as he only saw 3 targets last week in his duel with Saints stud CB Marcus Lattimore. Next on deck is a matchup with another elite CB in James Bradberry, a player that has thwarted Evans multiple times in his career, including their last matchup in Week 2. Consider Evans a feast-or-famine WR2 this week in the bad matchup. With field stretcher Breshad Perriman not traveling to London, tight end O.J Howard is in a position to gain a larger target share. It may not matter however, as the Panthers have the leagues fifth-best defense against tight ends, only giving up a stingy 4 FPPG to the position. Howard is impossible to trust at this point and should be considered a TE2.
RB Breakdown
Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones continue to kill each others value and neither should be treated as more than RB3’s. Going up against one of the league's worst run defenses is a prime position to get a boom week out of one of these players, but it’s impossible to know who will get the volume to produce. Dare Ogunbowale isn’t seeing the field enough to be a fantasy asset, leave him on the wire.
Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 17

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)

Bengals ATS: 2-3-0 Ravens ATS: 1-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Bengals 18.25 Ravens 29.75

Bengals

Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #23
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #24
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): CB Jimmy Smith (out)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): OT Cordy Glenn (DNP, likely out), WR Alex Erickson, AJ Green (out), John Ross (out)
Key WCB matchups: Tyler Boyd vs. Marlon Humphrey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Boyd (26%) John Ross (19%) Auden Tate (16%) Tyler Eifer (10%) Joe Mixon (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Joe Mixon (63%, 20, 1) Bernard (39%, 5, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bengals couldn’t snag their first win in the participation trophy bowl last week, but it’s ok because Zac Taylor believes his team is all “going in the same direction”. Um, ok i guess. Andy Dalton did show signs of life in the 4th quarter, finishing with 262 yards and 2 TDs, but continues to be inconsistent and makes numerous mistakes every week. The Ravens have not been good on defense this year, and will be without CB Jimmy Smith again this week, but Dalton is no more than a bye week QB2 filler, albeit one in a projected shootout. Tyler Boyd gets a tough matchup against Humphrey, but his volume keeps him in the WR2 mix, especially in PPR leagues. Auden Tate (upgrade) should be the beneficiary with easier matchups, and he makes for a solid low end WR3 based on his usage the past few weeks. Tyler Eifert (drop) couldn’t get it going even against Arizona last week, so if you haven’t yet done him the courtesy of putting him back on the wire, do so now for his dignity as much as yours.
RB Breakdown
In their first drive last week the Bengals ran almost every play, and their continuous chunk plays should have led to a TD. But after that drive, they struggled to generate any running lanes, and steadily gave up on the run game as the Cardinals jumped out to a lead. Joe Mixon (downgrade PPR) hit a season-high in rushing with 93 yards, but 60 of those were on the opening drive. He also turned his one target into a 16 yard catch. Mixon’s lack of involvement in the passing game is a big problem, as the Bengals will likely be in negative game flow for a majority of their remaining games. With the Bengals below-average offense not reaching the red zone very often, Mixon’s chances for rushing TD’s have decreased as well. If the Ravens get off to a good start, it’s easy to imagine Mixon finishing with around 75 rushing yards, no TD, and one catch for 10 yards again this week. That 8-10 point line is decent for an RB2, but makes for a risky start in PPR leagues, and isn’t the type of production owners that drafted Mixon early are counting on him for. Consider him a back end RB2 that needs to either get into the end zone or bust a big play in the passing game to have any chance at a ceiling game. Gio Bernard (stash) continues to out target Mixon, and has run more routes overall this season as well. He has no standalone value, but in the event of a Mixon injury, would potentially be a more valuable play than Mixon has been so far because of his likely 3 down role. He’s a valuable handcuff to roster at this point.

Ravens

Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): LB Nick Vigil (limited)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL): WR Marquise Brown (DNP, Q), Mark Andrews (full practice, Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Mark Andrews (23%) Marquise Brown (23%) Willie Snead (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Mark Ingram (65%, 21, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Ravens offense has cooled a bit in recent weeks, but they have still put up 23+ points in every game. Lamar Jackson (upgrade) has been a top-5 QB based mostly on his rushing ability, and he’s put in enough in the passing game to make him an every week set and forget. He’s no Pat Mahomes, but he’s also no Tim Tebow either. Mark Andrews (upgrade) is tied for the highest target share on the team, and is an easy top-6 TE at an extremely thin position. The Cincy defense is 7th stingiest against TE’s (NFL.com) but Andrews will be a target hog this week, especially if the Ravens are missing their top WR. Marquise Brown (downgrade PPR) is questionable to play after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday, so his status is worth monitoring closely heading into the weekend. If he does play, he makes for a solid WR3 because of his high target volume and big play ability, but may not be needed much if the Ravens pound the run at home. If he is forced to miss the game, Willie Snead would enter the streaming radar as he has shown a solid connection with Jackson so far. Even as the top WR, however, he’d be no more than a WR4 with some decent PPR upside.
RB Breakdown
The Ravens haven’t been quite as run heavy as some predicted, but Mark Ingram (upgrade) has gotten just enough volume to be a top-10 RB so far this season. Going up against a defense that has given up the second most FPPG to opposing RB’s, and as a huge home favorite, Ingram makes for a top 5 RB play in Week 6. He’s a chalk play in DFS, and might be in a week-winning position on Sunday. ** Gus Edwards** and ** Justice Hill** are no more than handcuffs for worried Ingram owners at this point.
Score Prediction: Ravens 31, Bengals 17

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns

Seahawks ATS: 2-3-0 ** Browns ATS:** 2-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Seahawks 24 Browns 22.5

Seahawks

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): Greedy Williams (limited), Denzel Ward (limited)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SEA): OL DJ Fluker (DNP), OL Duane Brown (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Lockett (23%) Will Dissly (17%) DK Metcalf (17%) Chris Carson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Chris Carson (84%, 28, 2) Rashaad Penny (16%, 8, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Seahawks have managed to grind out a number of wins this year, and last week’s TNF matchup against the Rams was no exception. Russell Wilson basically willed Seattle to victory, and he put on a clinic of efficient passing. He has yet to throw an INT this year, and is making an underwhelming cast of weapons look like a top-10 offense. Even against a solid pass defense that may get their starting CBs back this week, Wilson has been too good this year to consider benching. This does profile as one of the tougher matchups he’s faced this year, so expectations should be tempered slightly. Tyler Lockett (downgrade) is unlikely to face consistent coverage from either of the Browns young stud CBs (assuming they play) but his lack of volume of late (4 targets each of the last two weeks) make it harder to project a big week for him. The Browns have been much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, so expect the overall passing volume to be lowered slightly. Lockett has really only had one big game all year, and it was against NO when the Seahawks were down big early. Assuming the Browns struggle again to put up points offensively, this doesn’t initially project as a game that should feature negative game script. DK Metcalf (downgrade) is the more likely WR to face some kind of shadow coverage on the outside, and combining that with his smaller target share, he’s more of a WR4 that you can only start in hopes of one long TD play. Will Dissly (upgrade) has been one of the surprises of the season with his strong play, and with the Browns giving up the 8th most FPPG to opposing TEs, he remains firmly planted in the top 8 of the position this week.
RB Breakdown
Despite some early fumbling issues, Chris Carson (upgrade) has been given a big workload in all but one game this year, and that was in a matchup that featured negative game flow right from the start (Week 3 vs. NO). Carson got 28 touches last week, and caught his only target for the go-ahead TD late in the game. The Browns are fresh off getting absolutely obliterated in the run game by the Niners and now go up against a Seattle team that runs the ball almost as much. Carson is a lock for 20+ touches, and has a great shot at a TD. He’s on the RB1/2 borderline, and just needs a slight uptick in targets to break into the top-12 ROS. Rashaad Penny (stash) isn’t garnering enough touches for standalone value, but remains an extremely valuable handcuff.

Browns

Opp (SEA) Pass DVOA: #19
Opp (SEA) Run DVOA: #16
Injuries to Watch DEF (SEA): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Odell Beckham Jr. (26%) Jarvis Landry (24%) Nick Chubb (12%) Antonio Callaway (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Nick Chubb (84%, 17, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
There’s no sugarcoating just how bad Baker Mayfield (upgrade) has been as a fantasy QB so far this year. He’s barely in the top-30 at the position through 5 weeks, and there’s just something wrong with this offense. This feels like a good game for Mayfield to put up a better line, and he may actually be available on the waiver wire this week. He’s nowhere near back to QB1 status, but going up against a burnable Seahawks secondary in a game the Browns could face some negative game script, Mayfield may surprise this week. We project him as a high end QB2, worth starting for owners in a bye week pinch. The biggest factor for Mayfield’s value is tied to getting Odell Beckham Jr. (upgrade) going for more than 2 catches. There are major concerns about OBJ’s fit in this offense with the lack of an offensive line meaning fewer downfield shots, but I think he gets going this week against Seattle. Jarvis Landry has only had one big week all year, but his floor in PPR remains usable because of his solid target share and low aDOT leading to high percentage looks. He’s a low upside WR3, and deserves to be bumped to WR4 range in standard leagues. His weekly 5-50 projection is usable, but not extremely exciting. Antonio Callaway (downgrade) didn’t move the needle much in his return, and isn’t a must own at this point because of the lack of downfield throwing in this offense.
RB Breakdown
One week after steamrolling the Ravens defense on the ground, Nick Chubb wasn’t able to get going in a blowout loss to the Niners last week. The volume is still there, and he’s a threat to take it to the house on any given play, so he needs to be in all lineups this week. A bigger role in the passing game would be a boon to his value, so hopefully Freddie Kitchens can find creative ways to get perhaps his most talented player the ball on Sunday.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Browns 21

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Texans ATS: 3-2-0 Chiefs ATS: 3-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Texans 25.25 Chiefs 29.75

Texans

Opp (KC) Pass DVOA: #8
Opp (KC) Run DVOA: #30
Injuries to Watch DEF (KC): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Kenny Still (limited)
Key WCB matchups: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Breshaud Breeland (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeAndre Hopkins (28%) Will Fuller (24%) Keke Coutee (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Carlos Hyde (64%, 21, 1) Duke Johnson (40%, 10, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week’s fantasy bonanza against the Falcons featured a massive game from Deshaun Watson (upgrade). KC has actually been stingy against QBs at home this year, but there’s no reason to view Watson as anything other than a top-3 QB play in the week’s highest projected scoring game. DeAndre Hopkins was unable to get in on the TD fun last week, but still finished with a respectable 88 yards on seven catches. He’s simply too talented to be held down for long, and has dusted more talented CBs than Breeland with ease over the years. He remains a top 10 WR play, and this is an ideal week for him to bust back onto the scene. Will Fuller (upgrade) went absolutely nuclear last week, and probably sent owners who benched him into therapy. There is no sure thing with a boom or bust player like Fuller, but in a shootout with Hopkins drawing likely shadow coverage, Fuller is set up beautifully to back up last week’s performance. He has to be in all lineups. Keke Coutee showed a little more last week, but is still only a stash at this point in case of injury to Hopkins or Fuller, not someone you can plug into your lineup.
RB Breakdown
This is one of the more frustrating backfields from a fantasy perspective, as either Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard) or Duke Johnson would be borderline RB1s if given a full workload, but neither is getting the volume necessary for big lines. Hyde is the better bet for a rushing TD, and is likely to get a solid volume of carries in the first half while the Texans try to keep Mahomes and company off the field. That plan could fall apart quickly, but Hyde’s floor is decent in standard leagues. DJ has drawn only 7 targets total over the past 3 weeks, and just isn’t getting the volume to be a worthwhile play. There is hope he’ll be used more in negative game script in a high scoring game, but it would take a major leap of faith to start him. Consider Hyde an RB2/3, with a bump in standard leagues, and Duke an RB4 with upside for a big play or two.

Chiefs

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (KC): OL Eric Fisher (DNP), OL Andrew Wylie (DNP), WR Sammy Watkins (DNP), WR Tyreek Hill (limited), Patrick Mahomes (limited)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Sammy Watkins (24%) Travis Kelce (22%) Demarcus Robinson (14%) Damien Williams (13%) Mecole Hardman (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Damien Williams (56%, 12, 4) Lesean McCoy (22%, 2, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
There was some concern that Patrick Mahomes would be limited this week after injuring his ankle last week, but he has been clear that the issue won’t stop him from being at his best on Sunday. He’s an easy top-3 QB. Tyreek Hill may have an opportunity to return this week after logging two limited practices, so keep a close eye on his status heading into the weekend. Houston held up better than the stats showed against Matt Ryan last week, but would be absolutely no match for one of the better QB-WR duos in the league, assuming health. Sammy Watkins was a DNP on Thursday with a hammy issue, and his status looks to be a legitimate concern. If Hill is unable to return and Watkins can’t play, Byron Pringle would get in the mix in 3 wide sets next to Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman. All three would be in play as WR3’s in this matchup if Hill and Watkins are out, but Robinson is probably the best bet if Hill or Watkins do play, considering his target share. Travis Kelce (upgrade) will need to step up in Watkins can’t play, so look for him to again have a big role and put up top-3 TE numbers.
RB Breakdown
One of the messier backfields so far this year surprisingly got a lot more clear when Damien Williams returned to the lineup last week. He immediately returned to starter status, receiving 12 touches to Lesean McCoy’s 2 touches, and Darrel Williams’ 0 touches. Because Damien is used so frequently in the passing game, his floor should be that of a decent RB2, especially in PPR leagues. His ceiling in a projected shootout like this is top-10, so he should be in all lineups barring a late injury setback. McCoy could get a few more touches this week, but likely needs to be benched, and Darrel Williams becomes just a handcuff for Damien owners. Damien may just be able to pay off for patient owners who were able to survive his early season injury.
Score Prediction: Texans 35, Chiefs 34

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Saints ATS: 3-2-0 Jaguars ATS: 3-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Saints 22.25 Jaguars 21.25

Saints

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #18
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #32
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): CB Jalen Ramsey (Q) CB D.J. Hayden (Q) S Ronnie Harrison (Q) DE Lerentee McCray (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO): QB Drew Brees (OUT) WR Tre’quan Smith (OUT) RB Alvin Kamara (Q, expected to play)
Key WCB matchups: Michael Thomas vs. Jalen Ramsey (Q-Back) (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Michael Thomas (32%) Alvin Kamara (18%) Ted Ginn (14%) Jared Cook (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Alvin Kamara (67%, 22, 7) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Teddy ‘Checkdown’ Bridgewater exploded last week against a poor Tampa secondary, throwing for 314 yards with 4 scores. Even with the breakout week, he’s no more than a 2QB league play or a one week streamer in good matchups. Michael Thomas (upgrade) has not slowed down in the absence of Drew Brees and it appears he’s a matchup proof WR1 moving forward, just keep in mind there may be some bumps along the way with Bridgewater at the controls. It appears that CB Jalen Ramsey is truly questionable to play (Jag’s owner Shahid Khan has said he’ll play, grain of salt), and his absence would be a huge upgrade to Thomas’ outlook. Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) was unable to return with an injury last week and Ted Ginn found his way into the endzone with a long score, but none of the peripheral pass catchers should be considered. Jared Cook finally showed up, posting 4-41-1 last week. He can be considered a low-end TE1 in a mediocre matchup, just remember his floor is scary low.
RB Breakdown
Alvin Kamara has popped up on the injury report late in the week which is never a good sign. He’s fully expected to play, but owners should grab Latavius Murray as an insurance policy. The matchup for the Saints running game is as optimal as they come, Jacksonville ranks dead last in Run DVOA and is giving up 23.1 FPPG to running backs. Kamara is in the mix for the overall RB1 this week.

Jaguars

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO): DE Trey Hendrickson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): TE James O’Shaughnessy (OUT for year)
Key WCB matchups: D.J. Chark vs. Marshon Lattimore (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): D.J. Chark (21%) Dede Westbrook (21%) Leonard Fournette (17%) Chris Conley (13%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Leonard Fournette (93%, 27, 7) Ryquell Armstead (7%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Rookie mistakes cost Gardner Minshew (upgrade) last week as he lost 3 fumbles, but he still gave his team a chance to win in a back and forth battle with the Panthers. Minshew has been as consistent as they come at the QB position, he has averaged 17.8 FPPG and has yet to score less than 16 fantasy points since taking over as the starter. If Minshew puts up a big week against a solid NO defense, he will likely be impossible to keep out of lineups. Consider him a back-end QB1 against the Saints middle of the road defense - they are giving up 23.7 FPPG to quarterbacks, third worst. D.J. Chark continued his impressive breakout, showing out with 8-164-2 last week. He can’t be denied a spot in your lineup due to upside, even with a date against Marshon Lattimore who just held Mike Evans to a goose egg, consider him a WR2 this week. Another good week and he may be pushing into the WR1 ranks. If Lattimore does indeed shadow Chark, then Dede Westbrook would draw the better matchup, going against SCB P.J. Williams. Consider him an upside WR3. Chris Conley isn’t seeing enough volume to be a consistent option in fantasy and is best left on the wire. The Saints secondary has been exploitable this season, giving up 28.6 FPPG to wideouts. Continue to fade Jacksonville’s tight ends, but keep an eye on Geoff Swaim. He may assume some volume with fellow tight end James O’Shaughnessy announced out for the year with an ACL tear.
RB Breakdown
Leonard Fournette has received the second most touches (115) so far this season, only behind superhuman Christian McCaffery (136). The matchup on paper isn’t ideal, NO is only giving up 14 FPPG to running backs. However, Fournette’s volume provides him a safe floor and he should be in all lineups.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Saints 21

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Eagles ATS: 2-3-0 Vikings ATS: 3-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Eagles 20.5 Vikings 23.5

Eagles

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): LB Ben Gedeon (DNP) CB Mackensie Alexander (limited)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI): WR Desean Jackson (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: Alshon Jeffery vs. Xavier Rhodes (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Zach Ertz (25%) Alshon Jeffery (25%) Desean Jackson (23%) Nelson Agholor (18%) Miles Sanders (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Jordan Howard (43%, 13, 4) Miles Sanders (43%, 13, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The most valuable player to the Eagles last week was wearing a Jets jersey, and his name is Luke Falk. He allowed the Eagles D to turn two mistakes into TDs, and was unable to put anything together on offense. This meant that none of the Philly weapons on offense needed to do much to win, so Carson Wentz ended with a slightly disappointing day. His matchup this week is significantly tougher against a defense that has given up the 8th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and ranks as a top 10 defense in both pass and run DVOA. He is still a solid QB1 option. Alshon Jeffery (upgrade standard) is back to full health and this week goes up against Xavier Rhodes, who has been burned by Jeffery in past matchups (Rotoworld). This isn’t a shy away matchup for either Wentz or Jeffery, and because the Eagles have a strong run defense, the Vikings strategy to control the game on the ground may not be as successful. This feels like a game where Jeffery hits the end zone. Zach Ertz remains a reliable weekly top-3 TE due to target share and his connection with Wentz is in fine form. Nelson Agholor (drop) likely only has one week left of receiving a decent target share with DJax possibly returning next week, so he can be dropped for someone with better ROS outlook. He has the potential to sneak into the endzone this week, but his floor is that of a 0 catch 0 yard performance. Wentz is a back end QB1 this week, and Jeffery is right on the edge of a top-20 ranking at WR.
RB Breakdown
The Eagles have employed an RBBC so far this year, and in Week 5 found the split between Jordan Howard (downgrade PPR) and Miles Sanders to be almost exactly equal. Howard is getting the more valuable redzone carries, so his TD upside put his at the back end of the RB2 rankings. Sanders hasn’t been extremely efficient with his carries, and isn’t being used in the passing game as much as some had projected, but his four catches in Week 5 were encouraging. Coach Doug Pederson has said the Eagles will continue to ride the hot hand, and that appears to be Howard at the moment. Both can be used in the flex spot, but Howard is a safer option because of his tendency to end up in the end zone the past weeks (5 in last 3 games).

Vikings

Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (PHI) Run DVOA: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (PHI): CB Orlando Scandrick (DNP, illness)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): OL Josh Kline (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Adam Thielen (24%) Dalvin Cook (19%) Stefon Diggs (18%) Kyle Rudolph (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Dalvin Cook (66%, 27, 6) Alexander Mattison (23%, 7, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Vikings passing game finally got up and running a bit last week, and Kirk Cousins (upgrade) finished with his best game of the season. On paper, this looks like a matchup to exploit through the air, as the Eagles are much more vulnerable there than on the ground, but it remains to be seen if OC Kevin Stefanski will adjust his gameplan at all. Cousins can be looked at in 2QB leagues, but still isn’t sniffing QB1 status until we see a consistent uptick in passing volume. He makes for an intriguing streamer this week, however. Adam Thielen has been Cousins’ preferred target the past few weeks, and has gotten his target share up close to 25%. While he still isn’t producing like the WR1 he was drafted to be, this week again sets up well for him to put up solid numbers. He should be in all lineups and can be counted on for WR2 numbers. Stefon Diggs (upgrade) is a slightly more risky proposition. He currently has a smaller target share than his starting RB, and has only one game over 50 yards receiving. While it’s tough to bench a player of Diggs’ talent, owners are likely extremely frustrated with his production so far. This feels like a get right matchup against the Eagles burnable secondary so we recommend you start him universally. Keep the faith for this week. Kyle Rudolph (drop) currently has a lower target share than his backup Irv Smith which tells the story of his fantasy irrelevance. If you’ve been holding this long, it’s time to let go.
RB Breakdown
Even in an extremely tough matchup this week, Dalvin Cook remains a top-3 RB play in all formats. He has shown his floor even in a game the Vikings are losing (Week 4 vs. CHI) to be 15+ points, so he is a clear auto-start. There may be some efficiency struggles on the ground due to Philly’s stout front seven, but he will bust at least one big play, and his involvement in the passing game keeps him elite even in the event the Eagles get out to a big lead. Alexander Mattison (stash) remains one of the league’s best handcuffs, so he should be universally owned. If you own Mattison but not Cook, consider seeing what you can pry from the Cook owner over the next few weeks.
Score Prediction: Eagles 21, Vikings 17

Washington Redskins (-4) at Miami Dolphins

Redskins ATS: 1-4-0 Dolphins ATS: 0-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Redskins 18.75 Dolphins 22.25

Redskins

Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): CB Xavien Howard (P) CB Johnson Bademosi (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (WSH): TE Jordan Reed (OUT) TE Vernon Davis (Q) G Wes Martin (Q) LT Donald Penn (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Terry McLaurin vs. Xavien Howard (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Terry McLaurin (21%) Chris Thompson (20%) Paul Richardson (15%) Trey Quinn (16%) Vernon Davis (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Chris Thompson (54%, 9, 7) Adrian Peterson (27%, 7, 0) Wendall Smallwood (19%, 6, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Interim coach Bill Callahan has yet to name a starter at quarterback, but all indications point to Case Keenum being under center this week. He’s not an option in fantasy, but his return is great news for Terry McLaurin who seems to be recovered from a hamstring injury. The bad news is that ‘F1’ McLaurin will be facing off against the Dolphins best player, CB Xavien Howard. Nevertheless, McLaurin has earned must start status as a WR2 and he’ll be facing the worst defense in the NFL. Fire him up. Paul Richardson with a healthy McLaurin is too much of a question mark to see lineups even in the dream matchup. Vernon Davis is still making his way back from a concussion and it’s unclear if he will play. Jeremy Sprinkle and Jerome Cunningham will take over again if he is absent, but neither are recommended plays.
RB Breakdown
Owners probably scooped up Adrian Peterson (upgrade) after the news broke that interim coach Callahan thinks that not running the ball enough is Washington's main issue (it’s not). He’s got a dream matchup on deck and should be considered a RB2/3, his floor remains scary low but it seems more likely than not that he finds pay dirt in Week 6’s poop fest. Chris Thompson (upgrade PPR) continues to produce in PPR, putting up a consistent 11.7 FPPG. Thompson can be considered a back-end RB2 with an upgrade in PPR formats. This game seems like it could go either way in terms of being high scoring or low scoring, so all options are a bit risky.

Dolphins

Opp (WSH) Pass DVOA: #28
Opp (WSH) Run DVOA: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (WSH): LB Josh Harvey-Clemons (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Preston Williams (22%) DeVante Parker (18%) Kenyan Drake (15%) Jakeem Grant (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Kenyan Drake (57%, 15, 6) Mark Walton (27%, 8, 2) Kalen Ballage (16%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Miami from an offense standpoint, and just an overall football standpoint, have been awful. Remember that when Vegas favors a home team by 3 points, that’s essentially saying that both teams are completely even. Josh Rosen isn’t a fantasy option. Preston Williams and Devante Parker can be considered this week going against Washington's dreadful secondary, but really you probably have a better option at receiver. Even in the best matchup of the year, all Miami players are an extreme risk. Put your money on teams that you know can move the ball. Albert Wilson is an intriguing DFS play against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most PPR per game to slow WRs this season (per Sports Info Solutions and Rotoworld). Don’t play a Miami tight end, you know better.
RB Breakdown
The running back rotation for Miami is an absolute mess and no running back has produced enough to see fantasy lineups. After a mistake filled start to the season, it appears that Kalen Ballage has fallen out of favor for rookie Mark Walton. If there were a surefire week to start Kenyan Drake, it seems like it would be this week. However, the Dolphins have been so putrid it seems like more risk than it’s worth. Fade the Dolphins backfield where possible.
Score Prediction: Redskins 17, Dolphins 14

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(DFAroto) Week 11 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 3

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-11-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-11-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10)

Cardinals

49ers

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4)

Texans

Ravens

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Patriots

Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-10.5)

Bengals

Raiders

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Bears

Rams

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (Mexico City)

Chiefs

Chargers

Week 6 - Matchup Strategy Guide (Part 1) - DFA

Part 2 right here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/nfl/week-6-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at London)

Panthers

Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)

Bengals

Ravens

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns

Seahawks

Browns

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Texans

Chiefs

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Saints

Jaguars

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Eagles

Vikings

Washington Redskins (-4) at Miami Dolphins

Redskins

Dolphins

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