Chargers vs. Bucs Betting Guide: Odds & A Spread Pick For ...

NFL W4 Value Plays - DraftKings

Value Stack of the Week - Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) and DeVante Parker ($5,700) - Seattle may be firing on all cylinders offensively, but their secondary looks like straight-up Swiss cheese through the first three weeks of NFL action, allowing over 430 passing yards per game while being the most generous defense to both the QB and WR positions. I wouldn't be surprised if this stack helped win someone the Milly Maker this week.
Value plays to me consist of any QB $6,000 and below, any position player at $5,000 or below, and any defense at $3,000 or below. I slightly adjust these scales based on the slate, as prices jumps can effect who is considered value and who isn't.
QB
• Matthew Stafford ($5,900) vs. NO: Stafford has been fairly consistent through three straight games, and I believe the return of Kenny Golladay ($6,000) last week will be a boost for the gunslinger going forward. New Orleans has talent on defense but hasn't translated that into much outside of Week 1's win over the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers - the Saints have four sacks and a fumble recovery over the last two weeks. This trend bodes well for Stafford, who should be comfortable throwing the ball to Golladay as well as options like T.J. Hockenson ($4,800) and Marvin Jones Jr. ($4,900) after coming off a narrow win over the high-flying Cardinals last week. We haven't seen tremendous upside with Stafford yet, as he hasn't posted 20+ DKFP in a game thus far, but he's a solid-floor option with a potential to hit big in what could be a shootout (NO has allowed 30+ points in the last two weeks).
• Baker Mayfield ($5,800) @ DAL: Okay, I know thus far Baker's been below average from a fantasy standpoint (averaging 13.8 DKFP/game), but he's faced three straight defenses that do well against the pass - not to mention the Browns are a run-first team, running 53% of the time with Nick Chubb ($7,000) and Kareem Hunt ($6,200, groin), but keep in mind Dallas' secondary is one of the kindest to opposing QBs, with only the Seahawks being less threatening. With Dallas notching two turnovers in their first three games as well as a potential for Hunt to miss this game with his groin injury, I think Mayfield could do well stacked with Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800) in this one. Mayfield attempted just 23 passes in each of his last two games, but that trend has a high chance of ending in a back-and-forth scenario with the Cowboys.
• Nick Foles ($5,700) vs. IND: Yes, the Colts' defense has looked astounding over their first three games, but to be fair, they played Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold in their last two. Nick Foles is not the kind of guy to lean on long-term, however there's value in playing him on a slate with a bunch of stud options and other appealing value plays. Foles' connection with Allen Robinson II ($6,700) in the 30-26 comeback win over Atlanta was a good start to his tenure with Chicago. I'm not expecting the Colts to get stomped obviously, but Foles could make this a much more interesting game than the numbers let on. With complementary options like Anthony Miller ($4,900), Jimmy Graham ($3,800) and Darnell Mooney ($3,000), Foles has a chance to make the Colts' defense look less superhuman than they've been over the start of the 2020 season. Keep Foles in your player pool, even if you're personally skeptical.
• Derek Carr ($5,300) vs. BUF: Carr has been, for the most part, solid in his first three weeks, completing 74% of his passes while throwing for a 6:0 TD:INT ratio and at least over 200 yards per week, though he has fumbled three times in his last two games. His salary has dropped little by little each week, and Buffalo just got gashed by the Rams' offense. The Raiders' receiving corps is banged up, with Henry Ruggs III ($4,800, hamstring) possibly not playing and Bryan Edwards ($3,300, ankle) is also trending in the wrong direction. But don't let that discourage you from playing Carr, who will still have Darren Waller ($5,200!!!) as well as Hunter Renfrow ($4,600) and other veteran options like Nelson Agholor ($3,500) and Zay Jones ($3,000) to lean on in the passing game. Buffalo has good talent on defense but has allowed 60 points and two 300+ yard, 2 TD performers in their last two weeks.
RB
• Myles Gaskin ($5,000) vs. SEA: Gaskin has 12 targets out of the backfield in his last two games and has appeal in the passing game despite Seattle's stinginess against RBs (the Seahawks allow the 6th-fewest DKFP to the position). Playing Gaskin in the hopes that he sees the end zone to cap off an otherwise-decent stat line isn't the worst bet you can make this week. Gaskin hasn't scored yet but this is a decent matchup for him to do so... just as long as Jordan Howard ($4,100) doesn't poach ANOTHER goal line score.
• J.K. Dobbins ($4,800) @ WAS: His limited opportunities make him a huge risk for fantasy, but there's a large chance Baltimore gets ahead early over the Football Team - in that scenario, Dobbins is likely to see extra work, which could translate to the fantasy scoreboard. Dobbins may not be a top value option, but keep him on your radar as he's an explosive talent who could start seeing more touches if he can maximize his opportunities this week.
• Ronald Jones II ($4,700) vs. LAC: Let me preface this by saying RoJo is not in an ideal situation in a crowded backfield with LeSean McCoy ($4,000) and Leonard Fournette ($5,600, ankle), though the injury to the latter caused him to miss practice Wednesday and has a chance to effect his availability against the Chargers. RoJo has seen consistent usage in the offense, and just saw 17 touches against the Broncos. Averaging 10.1 DKFP/game, RoJo is a TD-dependent option on a team that will not have Chris Godwin (hamstring) and has a banged up backup option in Scotty Miller ($4,100, hip/groin). Tom Brady ($6,100) has thrown 35+ times in each game thus far, but RoJo may be leaned on a bit more than normal with Godwin on the sideline.
• Chris Thompson ($4,100) @ CIN: James Robinson ($6,500) is the king of this backfield, and make no mistake about that. But that doesn't mean Thompson doesn't get any looks - with 10 targets over his past two games, Thompson sees opportunity in the passing game, though not a whole lot. You're banking on a TD from the veteran scat back, but Cincy is kind to RBs, allowing over 180 YPG on the ground (31st in the NFL) while also allowing the 27th-most DKFP to RBs. Cincy's defense isn't good, so I expect them to get gashed by Robinson and Thompson whenever either is on the field.
WR
• Darius Slayton ($5,000) @ LAR: Some of us probably jumped on Slayton against the banged-up 49ers defense, but we didn't think Daniel Jones ($5,100) would be so bad. The Giants will certainly be playing catchup in this contest as well, so hopefully Slayton continues to see 5+ targets as the Rams have been fairly middle-of-the-pack against the WR position, though they allow over 250 passing YPG (21st in the NFL). Nothing astounding, but opportunity is still there for Slayton with no Saquon Barkley or Sterling Shepard for New York. Slayton's very boom or bust, but could be a solid GPP play, as his Week 1 stat line (6-102-2 on 9 targets) vs. Pittsburgh shows that he's capable of being a producer if given opportunities down the field. Assume Jones will rebound a bit here against the Rams and Slayton can reap the benefits. Golden Tate ($4,600) is a high-floor option for the Giants offense due to Shepard's absence, but Slayton has more upside.
• Randall Cobb ($4,800) vs. MIN: Just 10 targets in his last two games, but Deshaun Watson ($6,600) has been hitting him for big gains (Cobb had a 4-95-1 line @ PIT last week). Watson is bound to throw more than 30 times against the Vikings' subpar secondary that allows 292 YPG through the air, and while Will Fuller ($5,900) will see his targets, Cobb is a solid complementary option that's hitting his stride at the right time.
• Cole Beasley ($4,700) @ LV: Fellow Bill John Brown ($5,100, calf) is looking like he'll play, but Beasley sees solid usage as the slot in Buffalo (20 targets over his first three games), which I think can translate well with the Raiders needing to be focused on containing QB Josh Allen ($7,300) as well as star receiver Stefon Diggs ($6,800). The Raiders have been stingy against WRs, but keep in mind they've played the Saints without Michael Thomas and the Patriots, who rammed the ball down the Raiders' throats. Worth putting in lineups despite an okay matchup on paper.
• Hunter Renfrow ($4,600) vs. BUF: No Ruggs or Edwards here, so I love Renfrow at this price and in this matchup. Really don't need to explain this one that much.
• Tee Higgins ($4,500) vs. JAX: Just caught 2 TDs, and I think it's a sign of things to come. The Jaguars are fairly decent defensively, but also have to cover A.J. Green ($5,500) as well as Tyler Boyd ($6,100). Obviously recency bias makes Higgins more intriguing than he'll likely be for Week 4, but he's worth slotting in to the occasional lineup in the hope of a repeat performance - plus, a rookie WR getting 9 targets in a game is a good sign, even if said game went into OT.
• Mecole Hardman ($4,300) vs. NE: New England has an elite corner in Stephon Gilmore, but speedy receivers are king against the Patriots' defense. The way I see it - Tyreek Hill ($6,900) will likely see plenty of double coverage (over-top from Devin McCourty), while Travis Kelce sees similar treatment - if Gilmore shadows Sammy Watkins ($4,400) to take him out of the game, that leaves Hardman as the sort-of odd man out - someone likely to be forgotten about by the notorious game-planning of Bill Belichick. Will that translate into a HUGE game for Hardman? Likely not, but I think he could have a long TD - which is enough to warrant playing, especially at $4,300.
• Justin Watson ($3,400) vs. LAC: Okay, no Chris Godwin (hamstring), and Scotty Miller (hip/groin) has missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday. Makes Watson's outlook fairly decent, even against a tough Chargers' defense. While Mike Evans ($6,400), Rob Gronkowski ($3,600) and O.J. Howard ($3,300) will see their targets, Watson's got a nice projected volume heading into Sunday.
TE
• T.J. Hockenson ($4,800) vs. NO: Saints haven't handled TEs well, allowing TDs to O.J. Howard and Darren Waller, with the latter piling up 105 yards on 12 receptions. While Hockenson is not on the same level as Waller, the former is headed for a good line on Sunday if he sees a similar workload to the 7 targets he saw against Arizona, especially with Kenny Golladay ($6,000) active.
• Hunter Henry ($4,600) @ TB: Sees too many targets to not be in your player pool (23 over his first three games). Henry is talented enough to consistently be in the top tier of the TE position, and is averaging 12.2 DKFP despite the Chargers 1-2 record. With at least 5 receptions and 50+ yards in each game thus far, Henry's a safe floor option who may not have the best matchup at Tampa Bay, but just needs to find the end zone to become an elite option on the slate.
• Dalton Schultz ($4,300) vs. CLE: 16 targets over the last two games tells me that Schultz will be relevant as the top TE for the Cowboys (get well, Blake Jarwin!). Cleveland does not defend TEs well, so I'm hoping we get another solid outing from Schultz as Dak Prescott ($7,200) looks to sling the ball around following a tough loss to the Seahawks last week.
• Jimmy Graham ($3,800) vs. IND: Some recency bias here with his 2 TD performance against the Falcons, but Graham should become a more fantasy-relevant option with Foles under center. Don't necessarily expect 10 targets a game, but Graham is still a legitimate red zone threat, and you saw what I mentioned earlier about the Colts defense and their matchups of late. Don't fade Graham just because the matchup makes his outlook worse than it really is.
• Rob Gronkowski ($3,600 vs. LAC: Like I said earlier about Watson, Gronk can also benefit from no Godwin or potentially Miller. Gronk's snap count has continued to increase, and while I don't love the matchup vs. LAC per se, I do like Gronk's chances of nabbing a red zone score at some point. Gronk and O.J. Howard ($3,300) are worth looks as cheap options at the TE position.
D/ST
• Chargers ($2,900) @ TB: Not much value as far as defenses go this week - the best options are certainly at the top. That being said, there's a possibility the Chargers' pass rush makes life difficult for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, which is why I like their floor this week. I know the Bucs have plenty of offensive weapons and will likely score 20+ points, but you can hope for 3+ sacks and maybe a turnover or two from this Charger defense, which would be a solid outing considering the opponent. Keep in mind LAC kept the Chiefs to 23 points in Week 2, which is the most they've allowed to an opponent thus far.
• Panthers ($2,700) vs. ARI: This one revolves a bit more around recency bias, as the Panthers made life difficult for Justin Herbert ($5,800) and the Chargers last week with 4 turnovers (1 INT/3 FR) and sacked Herbert twice. Kyler Murray ($7,000) and the Cardinals will be a tougher offensive opponent, and Murray's elusiveness makes the Panthers' floor a bit volatile, but I think they're good for a solid 4-5 DKFP at least - which is decent at their sub-$3,000 price point.
Who are you targeting for Week 4? Let's talk about the slate below!
submitted by Kilik_Ali12 to dfsports [link] [comments]

Offseason Review Series: Los Angeles Rams

2019 Summary

Division: NFC West
Record: 9-7 (3rd in Division, 7th in Conference)
After a wildly successful 2019 season, the Los Angeles Rams had high hopes for 2020. It was truly Super Bowl or bust for the team, and unfortunately as high as the expectations were the end result was disappointment almost as high. Despite the shortcomings (and media doubt), the team is still in great shape to have another great year and playoff hopes are completely within shooting distance. Here's a brief summary of some of the positives and negatives on the 2019 season.
Positives
Negatives

2020 Coaching Staff/Changes

Position Name (* indicates new coach) Notes
Sean McVay Head Coach Total babe
Joe Berry Assistant Head Coach/Linebackers Coach
Thad Bogardus Assistant Defensive Line Coach/Defensive Quality Control Dope name
John Bonamego Special Teams Coordinator* Previously with the Detroit Lions
Thomas Brown Running Backs Coach* Previously with the South Carolina Gamecocks
Liam Coen Assistant Quarterbacks Coach Previously WRs coach
John Cooley Defensive Quality Control* Previously Akron CBs Coach
Andy Dickerson Assistant Offensive Line Coach
Ejiro Evero Safeties Coach Dope name
Eric Henderson Defensive Line Coach
Aaron Kromer Run Game CoordinatoOffensive Line Coach
Zak Kromer Offensive Quality Control lol nepotism
Bill Nayes Assistant to the Head Coach insert The Office joke here
Kevin O'Connell Offensive Coordinator* Previously with the Washington REDACTED
Wes Phillips Tight Ends Coach
Aubrey Pleasant Cornerbacks Coach
Zac Robinson Assistant Wide Receivers Coach Was Assistant QB coach in 2019
Chris Shula Outside Linebackers Coach
Brandon Staley Defensive Coordinator* Previously with the Denver Broncos as OLB Coach
Shane Waldron Pass Game Coordinator
Eric Yarbor Wide Receivers Coach
Key Changes

Free Agent Signings and Departures

Key Signings
Player Position Former Team Contract Details
Michael Brockers Defensive Tackle LA Rams 3 y31.5 million
Andrew Whitworth Offensive Tackle LA Rams 3 y30 million
Austin Blythe Offensive Guard/C LA Rams 1 y3.9 million
A'shawn Robinson Defensive Tackle Detroit Lions 2 y17 million
Leonard Floyd OLB/Defensive End Chicago Bears 1 y10 million
Key Departures
Player Position New Team Contract Details
Greg Zuerline Kicker Dallas Cowboys 3 y7.5 million
Todd Gurley Running Back Atlanta Falcons 1 y5.5 million
Dante Fowler Jr OLB/Defensive End Atlanta Falcons 3 y30 million
Cory Littleton Linebacker Las Vegas Raiders 3 y36 million
Marquis Christian Safety New York Jets 1 y2 million
Jojo Natson PKR Cleveland Browns 1 y1 million
Clay Matthews OLB/Defensive End Free Agent n/a
Eric Weddle Safety Free Agent n/a
Nickell Robey-Coleman Cornerback Philadelphia Eagles 1 y1.35 million
Lets start our discussion with the departures, because we lost a lot of key starters. Dante Fowler, Cory Littleton, Clay Mathew, and Eric Weddle were four starters on our defense, with NRC being our primary slot DB. Weddle was more of a leader than an anchor on defense, and did a remarkable job mentoring his replacement in rookie Taylor Rapp. Clay Mathews had a nice season but at his age is certainly replaceable. What isn't going to be replaceable is Cory Littleton, who might be one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL. His coverage ability is going to be sorely missed and leaves the linebacker room, which was already weak, almost defunct.
The strategy regarding our free agent signings is a little mysterious. In early free agency we signed Floyd and Robinson, which filled two holes left by Fowler and Brockers, who had originally signed with the Baltimore Ravens. A few weeks afterwards Brockers offer was rescinded by the Ravens, and he resigned at a lofty amount. This effectively leaves the team with a log jam at defensive tackle, with two DTs that do virtually the same thing to be paired with Aaron Donald. I'll explain later in this post how I think our defense might look, but it's certainly a puzzling signing.
Resigning Whitworth, in what should be his final contract, is a nice bonus even if it was for another larger than anticipated deal. It gives our numerous young OL talent a wonderful vet to learn from, and despite media reports our offensive line room actually isn't bad. It's just incredibly young, and we have many sophomores who look to make jumps this year.

2020 Draft Class/Undrafted Free Agents

Round Pick Player Position College Team
2 52 Cam Akers Running Back Florida State
2 57 Van Jefferson Wide Receiver Florida
3 84 Terrell Lewis OLB/DE Alabama
3 104 Terrell Burgess Safety Utah
4 136 Brycen Hopkins Tight End Purdue
6 199 Jordan Fuller Safety Ohio State
7 234 Clay Johnston Linebacker Baylor
7 248 Sam Sloman Kicker Miami (OH)
7 250 Tremayne Anchrum Offensive Line Clemson
Cam Akers and Van Jefferson are the only players on offensive who should make an immediate impact. Akers could battle for the starting position with Gurley out, and Jefferson could battle Josh Reynolds for WR3. The intriguing pick is Terrell Lewis, who could have been a 1st rounder if healthy. He fills a major need at EDGE for the team, and if he works out will be a massive value pick.
Brycen Hopkins will battle with Johnny Mundt for the final TE spot, which may be a tall order given Mundt's proficiency on special teams. But he's a good prospect to replace Gerald Everett, who will demand a larger contract next year. Tremayne Anchrum is probably a longshot to make the team, especially with no preseason games considering we have a logjam of OL prospects with Bobby Evans, David Edwards, Joe Notebloom, among others.
For more information on the UDFA list, check out this link. The interesting choices are Easop Winston, Josh Love, and Bryce Perkins. Easop I think may have a decent shot at making the roster, while Josh Love and Bryce Perkins may be able to battle it out for the backup position. The Rams will look to shed future salary cap space where ever possible, and both players have decent ceilings and could be a cheap backup alternative for Goff, but both will have to usurp AAF legend John Wolford who is the leader in the clubhouse.

Projected Depth Chart/Scheme Changes

Offense (* indicates rookie)
Position 1st 2nd 3rd
QB Jared Goff John Wolford
RB Malcom Brown Cam Akers* Darrell Henderson
WR Cooper Kupp Van Jefferson*
WR Robert Woods Nsimba Webster
WR Josh Reynolds Easop Winston* Trishton Jackson*
TE Tyler Higbee Gerald Everett Brycen Hopkins*
LT Andrew Whitworth Bobby Evans Tremayne Anchrum
LG Joe Notebloom David Edwards
C Austin Blythe Brian Allen
RG Austin Corbett Coleman Shelton
RT Rob Havenstein Jamil Demby
The first thing that I envision changing for this Rams offensive is to break out of our traditional 11 personnel into more 11 or 22 based packages. Sean McVay has made no secret about our change to a running back by committee team, which makes sense given the different types of backs we have on the roster. Malcom Brown probably gets the start due to his veteran presence, and because he's a traditional runner of the football. But Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are both Alvin Kamara-like backs and can open things up for McVay to get more creative.
An interesting camp battle will be to see who makes it at wide receiver. Kupp, Woods, Reynolds, Jefferson, and Webster are all locks to make the team, but we will probably carry 6-7 on the roster. I'm partial to Easop Winston and Trishton Jackson to fill those voids but other guys like JJ Koski could also impress and camp and make an impact. As the season goes on, the Rams are going to hope that at least one of these rookies can manage to impress enough to replace Josh Reynolds, as both him and Cooper Kupp are in contract years and we probably won't be able to afford to resign both.
On the offensive line front, I'm really excited to see the development that Bobby Evans, Joe Notebloom, and David Edwards show. Make no mistake, if our team is to have flexibility moving forward it is absolutely vital that one, if not all three, of these guys pan out. Luckily, due to injury Bobby Evans and David Edwards were given starting jobs and performed really well all things considered. Evans in particular was given the task to block Jadeveon Clowney and Khalil Mack and really held those guys to minimal impact.
As a quick update, the only member of the team to opt out of the 2020 season is OL Chandler Brewer, who was probably a good bet to make the team as a backup OL. In his place I slot Jamil Demby who's been a prospect on the team for what seems like a decade. In any other year, I'd slot a rookie to take over that slot but given the lack of a structured offseason I think the team stays with someone familiar for another year.
Defense (* indicates rookie)
Position 1st 2nd 3rd
DE Leonard Floyd Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
DT Aaron Donald Sebastian Joseph-Day Greg Gaines
DT Michael Brockers A'shawn Robinson
DE Samson Ebukam Justin Lawler
LB Micah Kiser Kenny Young Travin Howard
LB Terrell Lewis Clay Johnston*
CB Jalen Ramsey Darious Williams
CB Troy Hill Donte Deayon
CB David Long Jr Adonis Alexander
S John Johnson III Jordan Fuller*
S Taylor Rapp Terrell Burgess*
Our biggest change in identity is going to come from the defensive side of the ball. Losing Wade Phillips is a huge blow to the leadership of the team, but newcomer Brandon Staley may be able to provide a McVay-like spark in ingenuity that provides results. The way that the Rams targeted safeties in the draft, and avoided a massive need in linebacker, makes me believe that we are transitioning to a DB let system similar our neighbors in the LA Chargers. If you do film study on the Chargers, you can see them run a package that consists of 7 DBs occasionally, which works well when you have physical safeties like Derwin James. Luckily for us, we have two incredibly physical guys in Johnson and Rapp, and with the team clearly focusing on DBs I think its in the cards for us to roll this package out in 2020.
One area that might be a struggle for us is going to be our defensive line, and generating pressure via the pass rush. Luckily again, we have the greatest defensive player in the NFL and the greatest defensive tackle of all time on our team. Another fortunate circumstance is that we no longer will be marred by Wade Phillips conservative play calling, and in fact may be able to use DC Brandon Staley's expertise as an OLB coach to get improvement out of guys like Okoronkwo and Ebukam, In free agency we signed A'Shawn Robinson, who paired with Michael Brockers can be a force against the run, but neither player is a threat to rush the passer. Leonard Floyd, another free agent signing, is another guy who is strong against the run but struggles in pass rush. This area of defense will be key to the success of the team, and these guys are gonna have to find ways outside of relying on Aaron Donald to generate pressure.
Special Teams (* indicates rookie)
Position 1st
K Sam Sloman*
P Johnny Hekker
LS Jake McQuaide
PR Trishton Jackson*
PR Nsimba Webster*
Losing Greg Zuerline is going to hurt, and he will always have a place in Rams history for making clutch kicks in the 2018 NFC Championship game. But he grew inconsistent especially inside the 40 yard line, and struggled with injuries since 2017. We drafted Sam Sloman in 2020 but also have two decent UDFA that will compete for the starting job..

Projected Game Results

Week 1: Win (1-0)
Dallas Cowboys @ Rams - NBC Sunday Night Football
Opening the season at the new SoFi stadium, with potentially no fans is going to be an odd experience. The last time the Rams beat dem boyz was in the 2018 Divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams will struggle early to find continuity, and I'd expect a relatively low scoring, run heavy game. In the end I think the Rams will get the season off to a good start with a win. Rams 24 Cowboys 17
Week 2: Win (2-0)
Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles - FOX 10am PST
We should finally get to see Goff vs Wentz healthy in full game for the first time. The Eagles have beat the Rams both times they've played Sean McVay, and I think they get things back on track in 2020. I believe our strength at the DL and DBs will be able to effectively manage the weaknesses of the Eagles WRs and aging OL, though the key will probably be Zach Ertz. Rams 30 Eagles 28
Week 3: Loss (2-1)
Rams @ Buffalo Bills - FOX 10am PST
Our first stumble will come against an underrated team in the Bills. I think having two close games in a row to open the season will leave the team waiting for a crash, and how else to crash than by facing what might be the best defense in the NFL. I expect Tre White and the rest of the secondary to handle Goff and company in a convincing loss. Bills 23 Rams 10
Week 4: Win (3-1)
New York Giants @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST
Home sweet home, the Rams get back on track with a convincing win over a struggling Giants team. I'll predict an offensive explosion from Goff, somewhere around 400 yds and 4 TDs in a blow out win. Sorry Giants fans, nothing personal. I'm expecting an early struggle for this Giants team as it adjusts to new coach, young QB, with little prep time.Rams 42 Giants 16
Week 5: Win (4-1)
Rams @ Washington [REDACTED] - FOX 10amPST
I think this gsme is much closer than most might expect. The [REDACTED] are my surprise pick of the year, I have them winning the NFC East. An already tenacious defense led by Ron Rivera and gaining a bona-fide star in Chase Young is going to be fun to watch. I think the key to this game will be quick passes to avoid that ferocious defensive line as much as possible. Rams 24 [REDACTED] 21
Week 6: Loss (4-2)
Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers - NBC Sunday Night Football
As much as I want to win this game, I think Shanny and those fucks take this one from us. Divisional games tend to be unpredictable and chaotic, and while I do think we split the series with them, being on the road for this one isn't going to favor us. Its going to be interesting to see how DC Brandon Staley chooses to defend Kittle. I dont think shadowing him with Ramsey is the best play, perhaps it's a combination of jamming him at the LOS and covering him in zone. Either way, its a tall order for whoever gets that assignment. 49ers 31 Rams 25
Week 7: Win (5-2)
Chicago Bears @ Rams - ESPN Monday Night Football
As it stands, McVay will be 1-1 on the year in prime time games. His record as a coach is , which leads me to believe he'll have an edge in winning this one. Of course the Ram fucker Foles might be in at QB, which could spell disaster for our team. I think that our offensive prowess will shine during this long week, and we win in convincing fashion. Rams 36 Bears 20
Week 8: Win (6-2)
Rams @ Miami Dolphins - FOX 10am PST
We continue this offensive success against a team that will probably be pretty good defensively. HC Tom Flores is a Bill Belichek disciple who learned something important from his former mentor; acquire as many great DBs as you can. The improved secondary will make things tough for Goff and gang, but ultimately working with a rookie QB is going to be hard against a defense with all pros scattered around it. Rams 17 Dolphins 0 ' Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Win (7-2)
Seattle Seahawks @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST
And entering the second half of the season we have our first three game winning streak. Coming off a bye week will give McBae ample time to prepare for a Seahawks team thay frankly will have a struggling offensive line and holes on its defense. Even with Jamal Adams, I expect this team to take a step back in 2020. Rams 31 Seahawks 17
Week 11: Loss (7-3)
Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ESPN Monday Night Football
Facing the best offensive weapons in the league is going to be a tough order for any team this season. Now that they have a QB that will make effective, eccifient decisions this Bucs team should take off. I dont think its particularly close, this is a complete team on both sides of the ball. Bucs 28 Rams 10
Week 12: Win (8-3)
San Fransisco 49ers @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST
The winning continues as the team really clicks into high gear. A brutal NFC West game will likely be a repeat of Week 6, but with a few more bounces going our way. Being at home will be a helpful factor. Rams 26 49ers 24
Week 13: Win (9-3)
Rams @ Arizona Cardinals - FOX 1:05PST
If there is any team in the league that McVay can be relied on to spank, its the Cardinals. McVay has yet to be beat by the team in his tenure with the Rams and I expect that to continue at least through this week. Despite a huge game from future MVP Kyler Murray, the Rams prevail, improving to 9-3
Week 14: Loss (9-4)
New England Patriots @ Rams - FOX/NFLN/Amazon Thursday Night Football
A short week against Belichek spells doom for almost every team, and McVay will continue his struggles against the GOAT. The Pats defense was able to throw Goff off his game on the Super Bowl a few years ago, I expect we see more of this on Thursday.
Week 15: Loss (9-5)
New York Jets @ Rams - TBD
Every team had one puzzling loss, and this matchup with the Jets is ours for the year. I dont expect the Jets to have a grest year but I do think Sam Darnold is universally underappreciated and will have a great game against us.
Week 16: Loss (9-6)
Rams @ Seattle Seahawks - CBS 1:05PST
And we are really ending the year on a slump. Losing to the Seahawks this late in the year isn't great for our playoff hopes, but its always a tall order to go into Seattle and leave with a W. This game may he one of the most important games going into the playoffs and I wont be surprised to see it get flexed.
Week 17: Win (10-6)
Arizona Cardinals @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST
Luckily for us we end the season against our little cousins, and use this opportunity to get our chakras realigned. This game will move us into the 6th seed and bounce Arizona into the 7th seed, becoming the first division in history to have every team make the playoffs.

Conclusion

I think people have forgotten that the Rams were a mkssed field goal away from making the playoffs last year, and thats with playing very sloppy through most games. The only thing holding this team back is the fact that they play in the toughest division in football. I think that Goff has a bounce back year and ends up a top 10 QB for the season. This season will be critical for McVay to really show the new coaches and players that he's capable of not only calling proficient offense but leading an entire team of players. It will be an interesting season, so make sure to wear your damn mask so it actually happens.
Thank you for reading, and bless all the knees and keep them healthy!!
Thanks for reading!! Bless all the knees and keep them healthy.
Link to hub
submitted by Projinator to nfl [link] [comments]

r/NFL Offseason Review — 2020 NY Jets

New York Jets

Division: AFC East
 
1 New England Patriots (12-4)
2 Buffalo Bills (10-6)
3 New York Jets (7-9)
4 Miami Dolphins (5-11)
 

Coaching Changes

The Jets did not make any major coaching changes this offseason, retaining HC Adam Gase, OC Dowell Loggains, and DC Gregg Williams.
 

Free Agency

Players Lost/Cut
Player Position New Team
Trevor Siemian QB Free Agent
Bilal Powell RB Free Agent
Ty Montgomery RB New Orleans
Robby Anderson WR Carolina
Demaryius Thomas WR Free Agent
Kelvin Beachum LT Free Agent
Brent Qvale LG Houston
Ryan Kalil C Free Agent
Tom Compton RG San Francisco
Brandon Shell RT Seattle
Brandon Copeland EDGE New England
Paul Worrilow ILB Free Agent
Albert McClellan ILB Free Agent
Trumaine Johnson CB Free Agent
Darryl Roberts FS Detroit
Rontez Miles FS Free Agent
Blake Countess DB Free Agent
Lachlan Edwards P Free Agent
 
The Jets reshaped their weapons for Sam Darnold this offseason, losing three veterans and bringing in a number of free agents and draft picks. GM Joe Douglas opted not to re-sign RB Bilal Powell who the Jets drafted in 2011, and he remains a free agent. Most significantly, Douglas allowed his top offensive weapon in WR Robby Anderson to walk to Carolina on a 2 year, $20.0 MM deal, creating a void at outside receiver. The team has also not re-signed WR Demaryius Thomas, who filled in for Quincy Enunwa last season, and he remains a free agent.
 
The biggest change that the Jets made to their personnel this offseason was along the offensive line, and as such there were a number of veteran casualties. LT Kelvin Beachum started for the Jets from 2017 to 2019, but he seems to have regressed, and he remains a free agent. The Jets also let C Ryan Kalil go, who unretired to snap for Sam Darnold last offseason but disappointed and got injured, and he remains a free agent. RG Tom Compton was forced into action last season with the injury to Brian Winters, and he, as is characteristic of his NFL career thus far, struggled massively in run blocking and pass pro, but he projects to compete anyway next year for San Francisco on a 1 year deal. Joe Douglas and Adam Gase never expressed interest in RT Brandon Shell for the long term, benching him for the raw Chuma Edoga early in 2019, so it was not a surprise to see the Jets let Shell go to start for Seattle on a 2 year contract.
 
The Jets mostly kept their defense in tact this offseason, only losing two key pieces. EDGE Brandon Copeland left for New England on a 1 year contract, which is not a surprising location, as Copeland is a great utility player, functioning as a rush linebacker, an off-ball linebacker, and a core special teamer for the Jets in 2019. Similarly, Joe Douglas has not re-signed the versatile FS Rontez Miles, who has played single-high safety, box safety, and a key special teams role during his seven-year Jets tenure, and he remains a free agent.
 
The Jets cut CB Trumaine Johnson, which was virtually a no-brainer after two injury-plagued seasons in which his lack of speed was frequently exposed. The only real decision was whether to cut Johnson immediately, which would have resulted in a $12.0 MM dead cap hit in 2020, or to designate Johnson as a post-June 1 cut, which would have resulted in a $4.0 MM dead cap hit in 2020 and a $8.0 MM dead cap hit in 2021. Joe Douglas opted for the latter, meaning that the Jets saved a total of $11.0 MM by cutting Johnson in 2020. Grade: A
 
The Jets cut FS Darryl Roberts in mid-March. The Jets had high hopes for Roberts following the 2018 season, prompting them to sign him to a three-year contract with an out after one year. Roberts had a rocky first eight games of the season at cornerback before injuring his calf and being benched in favor of Maulet, Austin, and Canady. Roberts remained a special-teams asset and good safety depth in December, but ultimately GM Joe Douglas decided he could cut Roberts, save $6.0 MM, and look elsewhere for a replacement. Grade: B
 
Players Signed
Player Position Old Team Length Salary
Joe Flacco QB Denver 1 year $1.5 MM
David Fales QB NY Jets 1 year $0.9 MM
Frank Gore RB Buffalo 1 year $1.1 MM
Breshad Perriman WR Tampa Bay 1 year $6.5 MM
Josh Doctson WR Minnesota 1 year $0.9 MM
Daniel Brown TE NY Jets 1 year $0.8 MM
Alex Lewis LG NY Jets 3 years $18.6 MM
Greg Van Roten LG Carolina 3 years $10.5 MM
Josh Andrews LG Indianapolis 1 year $1.0 MM
Connor McGovern C Denver 3 years $27.0 MM
George Fant RT Seattle 3 years $27.3 MM
Jordan Jenkins EDGE NY Jets 1 year $3.9 MM
Neville Hewitt ILB NY Jets 1 year $2.0 MM
Patrick Onwuasor ILB Baltimore 1 year $2.0 MM
James Burgess ILB NY Jets 1 year $0.9 MM
Pierre Desir CB Indianapolis 1 year $4.0 MM
Arthur Maulet CB NY Jets 1 year $0.9 MM
Quincy Wilson CB Indianapolis 1 year $1.3 MM
Bennett Jackson FS NY Jets 1 year $0.7 MM
Brian Poole DB NY Jets 1 year $5.0 MM
 
Jets GM Joe Douglas used to work in Baltimore, where he was supposedly very influential in the decision to draft QB Joe Flacco, so this signing is far from surprising. While Joe Flacco may be trending down in his play, $1.5 MM feels like a bargain for the chance at solid veteran insurance for Sam Darnold. However, his neck surgery will supposedly keep him out for the opening of the season. Grade: B
 
After the draft, the Jets signed RB Frank Gore to a 1 year, $1.1 MM deal to ensure that he will play his 16th season in green and white. Gore is a physical back who played under Jets HC Adam Gase in San Francisco in 2008 and in Miami in 2018. Gore can take some of the pressure off of starting RB Le'Veon Bell in 2020 as the Jets move towards a "runningback by committee" system. Grade: B
 
The Jets-Ravens connection proved strong again with the signing of WR Breshad Perriman. Perriman was a first-round pick for the Ravens in 2015 while current Jets' Director of Player Personnel Chad Alexander was with Baltimore, and though he never really produced at a high level there, he had a resurgence in 2019 for the Buccaneers. Especially in November and December, where he performed at a 1000-yard rate projected over a whole season, Perriman proved to be a legitimate outside option across from Mike Evans with Chris Godwin in the slot. Perriman is a big, athletic receiver who projects to be well-worth the $6.5 MM deal to start on the outside. Grade: B
 
Yet again, the Jets signed a former Ravens player, re-signing LG Alex Lewis, who played 2016 through 2018 with Baltimore before GM Joe Douglas traded for him in the 2019 offseason. Lewis stepped in for Kelechi Osemele last season and was a serviceable starter. Lewis is good in pass pro, versatile, and a good zone fit as a guard. However, Lewis could touch up on his penalties and overall run blocking for 2020. GM Joe Douglas only gave Lewis a 3 year, $18.6 MM deal which actually has an out after 1 year, which seems like a solid price to get another look at a 28-year-old guard who might be part of the team's future. Grade: B
 
The Jets' biggest free-agent singing in 2020 in terms of guaranteed money was former Broncos' C Connor McGovern at $18.0 MM. McGovern is an athletic lineman with experience at guard and center. He is a powerful center, and that serves him well in the run game. However, McGovern has a weak anchor and inconsistent pad level and leverage in the pass game. For this reason, despite the need at center, Joe Douglas' decision to commit two years to a center who is, perhaps, below average in pass pro is worthy of scrutiny. Grade: C
 
The biggest heavily-scrutinized acquisition that the Jets made in 2020 was probably signing former Seahawks RT George Fant to a 3 year, $27.3 MM contract. Fant functioned primarily as a swing tackle and as a sixth offensive lineman in Seattle, as he could not see the field as a starter over Germain Ifedi. Fant remains a very raw pass protector in terms of his anchor and the fluidity of his kickslide, and his ability in the run is only theoretically a strength in zone blocking. While Fant's contract has an out in 2021, it is a bit strange to see him making a similar salary to Bryan Bulaga and Halapoulvaati Vaitai. Grade: D
 
The Jets were patient in re-signing their own free agents, which probably helped get good value retaining EDGE Jordan Jenkins. Despite notching 15 combined sacks over the past two seasons, Jenkins only got $3.9 MM from the Jets. The sack number is a bit misleading, though, due to a high quantity of "coverage sacks" and a relatively modest pressure rate. However, Jenkins is a fine run defender, and he'll slot in as EDGE #1 again for the bets in 2020. Grade: B
 
The Jets also acquired a former Raven on defense with LB Patrick Onwuasor, and they only paid $2.0 MM to bring him in. Onwuasor is an undersized linebacker but a good linear athlete, and while he struggles reading offensive cues and getting off of blocks to stop the run, he is a really good coverage player with the ability to get home as a pass rusher. Onwuasor has played next to CJ Mosley before, and he could potentially contribute in subpackage and base 4-3 looks, in addition to in a depth capacity and on special teams. Grade: B
 
With the cuts of Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts, GM Joe Douglas decided to fill a starting cornerback spot with former Colts CB Pierre Desir on a 1 year, prove-it deal. Desir lacks longspeed, but he is a long, physical corner with decent short-area quickness. However, Desir lacks refinement in press and zone. With that said, $4.0 MM is a reasonable price to get a fill-in outside cornerback in 2020. Grade: B
 
This signing probably didnt get much national coverage, but re-signing CB Arthur Maulet could pay huge dividends for the Jets in 2020. In 2019, Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts failed to hit expectations, forcing Maulet, Nate Hairston, and rookie Blessuan Austin into the outside cornerback rotation. Maulet is the only one of that group who was not benched for performance reasons. For a mere $0.9 MM, retaining a guy in Maulet who is familiar with the defense who will compete to start in 2020 is seemingly a no-brainer. Grade: A
 
Instead of making another draft choice, the Jets decided to trade pick 211 for former Colts CB Quincy Wilson. Wilson, a former second-round pick, was a raw prospect coming out of Florida, and his penalties and lack of zone instincts followed him to the pros and led to his benching. However, Wilson is a big, long, and athletic corner, and at only 23 years of age, it makes sense that GM Joe Douglas wants to bring him on board to compete in an iffy cornerback room. Grade: C
 
This signing went somewhat under-the-radar, but Jets fans were thrilled when the team retained DB Brian Poole to man the slot on a 1 year, $5.0 MM contract. Poole is a good run defender with an ability to rush the passer, and he had a career year in coverage in 2019. Brian Poole is a good fit for Gregg Williams' defense, so retaining him to start in 2020 for a mere $5.0 MM seems to be a good value. Grade: B
 

Draft

Round Number Pos Player School
1 11 LT Mekhi Becton Louisville
2 59 WR Denzel Mims Baylor
3 68 FS Ashtyn Davis California
3 79 EDGE Jabari Zuniga Florida
4 120 RB La'Mical Perine Florida
4 125 QB James Morgan FIU
4 129 LT Cameron Clark Charlotte
5 158 CB Bryce Hall Virginia
6 191 P Braden Mann Texas A&M
 
The eleventh pick, Louisville T Mekhi Becton, was my favorite acquisition that the Jets made during the 2020 offseason. While there were other options on the board, namely Tristan Wirfs, Henry Ruggs, and Ceedee Lamb, that the Jets presumably could have considered, Becton was the exact player I thought the Jets should take when he fell to 11. The first thing that stands out about Becton is his massive size, as he's 6'7", 364 lbs, with a monstrous 83-inch wingspan. Becton, however, is much more than a heavy lineman, as he defies the norm with his exceptional 5.1-flat movement skills. Becton is a hulking run blocker who is inexperienced but a fluid mover in pass pro. Becton projects to replace Kelvin Beachum and slide in at left tackle immediately in his rookie season. Grade: A
 
Wanting to add more picks to build the Jets in his image in his first year as GM, Joe Douglas opted to move down from 48 to 59 in the second round. This was a costly move, as it caused the Jets to miss out on AJ Epenesa and Darrell Taylor, but the Jets managed to grab a falling Senior Bowl standout in Baylor WR Denzel Mims. Mims is a height-weight-speed freak with good length, hands, and run-blocking toughness. Mims should slot in as a starting outside receiver across from Breshad Perriman in year one. Grade: B
 
The Jets' first third-round pick of 2020 was a real surprise to many fans, as although the team already had arguably the best safety tandem in football with Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye, the Jets drafted California FS Ashytn Davis with the 68th-overall draft selection. Davis is a freak athlete who played single-high safety, box safety, and even slot cornerback at Cal and would almost definitely have been drafted significantly higher but for teams' inability to medically check his groin post-surgery. It's possible that Gregg Williams will utilize Davis as a big nickel defender this year, but this selection could also give the Jets flexibility if Marcus Maye, who is a free agent in 2021, or Jamal Adams, with whom the Jets are supposedly far apart on a long-term contract, depart. Grade: B
 
Despite having a starting EDGE tandem consisting of Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham and losing Brandon Copeland to New England, the Jets did not add outside talent to the position group before the draft, forcing GM Joe Douglas to pick Florida EDGE Jabari Zuniga at 79 overall. Zuniga is a good linear athlete with a decent ability to set the edge and with some interior versatility, and he could maybe project to replace Jordan Jenkins as a starter in 2021. However, Zuniga struggles with stiff hips and slow reaction time at the snap, and plus he missed most of the 2019 season with ankle injuries. The Jets probably hit the right position with Zuniga, who should factor into the pass-rush rotation with Jenkins, Basham, and 2019 UDFA Kyle Phillips, but it's really hard to justify drafting Zuniga with guys like Jonathan Greenard, Terrell Lewis, and DJ Wonnum still on the board. Grade: C
 
With his first day-3 selection as GM, Joe Douglas chose Florida RB La'Mical Perine. Perine is a physical runner with some receiving versatility out of the backfield. However, Perine doesn't really offer very much in terms of speed or vision, and drafting a RB instead of going offensive line, pass rush, receiver, or cornerback when Le'Veon Bell was already in the fold was a curious move. Grade: D
 
The second of the Jets' fourth-round picks probably stirred up the most intrigue, as most casual fans probably didn't expect the Jets to draft a quarterback. With that said, the Jets have gone a combined 0-6 over the past two seasons in games that Darnold did not start, and at this time David Fales was slated to be the backup quarterback, so drafting FIU QB James Morgan in the fourth round, which I thought was a value anyway, was a good choice. Morgan is a thick quarterback with a live arm with developmental quarterback potential. Grade: B
 
With their third pick in the fourth round, the Jets chose a player with the potential to start soon on the offensive line in Charlotte T Cameron Clark. Clark is a powerful lineman who started at left tackle in his rSo, rJr, and rSr seasons and has good short-area quickness despite his 5.29 forty. Some have floated Cameron Clark as a potential convert to guard for the Jets due to his sloppy pass-pro footwork. Grade: B
 
The Jets went corner in round 5, taking Virginia CB Bryce Hall at 158 overall. Hall is a long, tall corner who moves well, has zone instincts, and contributes in the run game. However, Hall's struggles in press and off-man coverage schemes probably project him better as a safety in the NFL rather than as a corner, which doesn't seem to be a need with Adams, Maye, and Davis already on the roster, and Hall's ankle injury prevented him from working out at the Combine, leaving teams in a state of uncertainty about his health and his testing numbers. Grade: C
 
With their sixth-round pick, the Jets went special teams with Texas A&M P Braden Mann. Mann has a big leg and can handle kickoff duties. Mann projects to replace Lachlan Edwards, but this may have been a tad high for a punter. Grade: C
 
The Jets had an intriguing undrafted free agent class with a number of guys who warranted day-3 draft consideration, but two guys that I liked pre-draft stood out as being worth mentioning. Georgia WR Lawrence Cager is a physical receiver at the line of scrimmage who will attempt to make the team as a redzone threat. Alabama DB Shyheim Carter played the STAR role in Nick Saban's defense, and he proved his versatility as a college approximation of a subpackage linebacker, a nickel corner, a box safety, and even a high safety, so he'll vie to make the team as a versatile depth defensive back and as a special-teams ace.
 

Other Offseason News

After tensions flared at the trade deadline last season, SS Jamal Adams expressed his frustrations with a lack of a contract extension on social media before supposedly requesting a trade in June. However, according to Connor Hughes at The Athletic, the Jets still hope to sign Adams to a long-term contract. Reportedly, over half of the teams in the NFL have expressed interest in adding the defensive star, but the Dallas Cowboys have gotten the most traction as a potential trade partner, with RT La'El Collins and WR Michael Gallup coming up as potential trade pieces. Jamal Adams is still on his rookie contract for 2020, and the Jets accepted his fifth-year option for 2021.
 
Also, this isn't really news, but former Jets' All-Pro CB Darrelle Revis continued his spat with 49ers' All-Pro CB Richard Sherman, culminating in this unusual Tweet:
3 facts here.
@RSherman_25
•I’m more handsome than him according to women.
•I’m better at corner than him according to everyone.
•Shutdown corners are paid more than Zone 3 corners which I’m currently still am today.
 

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Sam Darnold
RB: Le’Veon Bell (and Frank Gore)
WR: Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims
SWR: Jamison Crowder
TE: Chris Herndon (and Ryan Griffin)
LT: Mekhi Becton
LG: Alex Lewis
C: Connor McGovern
RG: Brian Winters
RT: George Fant
EDGE: Jordan Jenkins, Tarell Basham
DT: Henry Anderson, Quinnen Williams (and Steve McLendon)
ILB: CJ Mosley, Avery Williamson (and Patrick Onwuasor)
CB: Pierre Desir, Arthur Maulet
NCB: Brian Poole
SS: Jamal Adams
FS: Marcus Maye
K: Sam Ficken
P: Braden Mann
LS: Thomas Hennessy
 

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

QB - Neutral/Weakness
Jets fans aren't going to love this one, but Sam Darnold is arguably still a bottom-third passer going into 2020. Darnold has been surrounded by a poor supporting cast over the past two years, including a turnstile of receivers across Robby Anderson with drop issues and linemen with pass-pro issues, but he certainly has not dominated like other young quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz. The Jets have a good group behind Darnold, though, including Joe Flacco, who said he won't be ready for week 1, and James Morgan, a fourth-round rookie out of FIU.
 
Backfield - Strength
Le'Veon Bell, who is making $15.5 MM this season, is an all-around back in terms of running between the tackles, receiving, and pass protecting. The Jets also signed the ageless wonder Frank Gore to take some of the pressure off of Bell. Joe Douglas also drafted La'Mical Perine to contribute in the backfield.
 
Pass Catchers - Neutral/Weakness
In 2020, the Jets are banking on production from unproved pass catchers who have performed well in limited sample sizes. Joe Douglas signed Breshad Perriman, who had a very productive end to his 2019 season, to man one of the outside receiver spots. He also drafted Denzel Mims out of Baylor to presumably also start as a rookie. Jamison Crowder broke out last year as an above-average slot receiver, and Chris Herndon missed virtually all of last season but played well in his rookie season as a tight end. The receiver depth lacks standout names, but the tight end depth is strong, with Ryan Griffin returning on a multi-year extension.
 
Offensive Line - Weakness
The Jets entirely remade their offensive line, and while each position is arguably improved on paper, it is still young and unproven. Most significantly, at LT, Joe Douglas drafted Mekhi Becton at 11, who is already a really good run blocker with the tools to grow in pass pro. Douglas also re-signed Alex Lewis, who is probably serviceable but below average, to start at left guard, but he could force competition from fourth-round rookie Cameron Clark. The Jets signed Connor McGovern to start at C, and while he should solidify the position for at least the last two years, he is not extraordinary. Right guard shapes up to be an open competition between incumbent Brian Winters, who is serviceable when healthy, and new acquisition Greg Van Roten. At RT, the Jets signed George Fant, who played mostly as a swing tackle or sixth offensive lineman for Seattle but certainly has the athletic ability to outperform Chuma Edoga from last year.
 
Defensive Line - Weakness
This might be surprising to the non-Jets fans, but the days of Muhammad Wilkerson, and Leonard Williams are over, and pressure from the defensive line probably won't come easily for Gang Green. At EDGE, the Jets have arguably the worst duo in the NFL with Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham presumably playing as starters, with rookie 3rd-round pick Jabari Zuniga and 2019 UDFA Kyle Phillips playing rotationally. Starting on the interior, the Jets have Quinnen Williams, the former third-overall selection who notched 2.5 sacks and 4 TFLs in his rookie season and was arrested in March on a weapons charge, and Henry Anderson, a nimble interior penetrator who had a breakout year in 2018 before coming back down to Earth in 2019. Nathan Shepherd, Steve McLendon, and Foley Fatukasi should all see plenty of tread on the DL, as well.
 
Linebackers - Strength
The Jets had a nearly-comical number of injuries at off-ball linebacker last season, but on paper, the unit appears very strong. CJ Mosley, 2019 FA acquisition, missed almost the entire 2019 season with a groin injury, but when healthy, he is one of the best linebackers in football. Avery Williamson, who projects to start across Mosley in 2020, is a good run defender but missed the entire 2019 year with a torn ACL. Returning starter Neville Hewitt, cheap FA acquisition Patrick Onwuasor, and promising second-year player Blake Cashman could each play in various base or subpackage roles, in addition to on special teams.
 
Secondary - Neutral
Similar to the defensive line, the Jets secondary is a tale of two halves, in this case safeties and cornerbacks. At safety, the Jets have reigning All Pro Jamal Adams and solid free safety Marcus Maye returning, in addition to the versatile 3rd-round pick Ashtyn Davis out of Cal. Outside cornerback is in flux, as new acquisition Pierre Desir should lock up one spot, while Arthur Maulet, Quincy Wilson, and Blessuan Austin could compete for the other starting spot, with last year's breakout player Brian Poole locking up the slot. Nate Hairston, Javelin Guidry, Shyheim Carter, and 5th-round rookie Bryce Hall could compete for other key depth roles in the secondary.
 
Special Teams - Strength/Neutral
At kicker, the Jets had a rocky performance last year, so they brought in Brett Maher, who hit 67% of his field goals last season, to compete with Sam Ficken, who hit 70% of his field goals last season. At punter, the Jets have rookie P Braden Mann, who handles kickoffs and whose 47.1 yards per punt would have ranked 4th in the NFL last year. At longsnapper, Thomas Hennessy is an asset in coverage and will return in 2020. Additionally, WR Vyncint Smith and FS Matthias Farley project to play major roles in kick coverage next season, with other jobs presumably up for grabs.
 

Schedule Predictions

Week 1 at Buffalo: L - Other than the loss of Shaq Lawson and the additions of Stephon Diggs and AJ Epenesa, the Bills mostly had a quiet offseason, though with encouraging performances from young players in Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, and Tre'Davious White and coming off of a 10-6 campaign, there’s a lot about which to be enthusiastic in Buffalo. The Bills, who went 10-6 last year and made the playoffs, beat the Jets here in their home opener. Record: 0-1
 
Week 2 vs San Francisco: L - The 49ers took a huge leap in 2019, marching through the NFC and into the Super Bowl, and the additions of Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Kinlaw, and Trent Williams should keep them competitive in 2020. If Jamal Adams is on the team, he might be able to get in George Kittle's way, but nevertheless the 49ers should be one of the NFL's most well-rounded football teams, and it would be difficult to envision the Jets defeating them. Record: 0-2
 
Week 3 at Indianapolis: L - The Colts had a big free agency period, signing Philip Rivers and adding DeForest Buckner in a trade while retaining their entire offensive line. While the Jets went 7-9 last season, just like the Colts did, the Colts probably are the favorites to win at home, especially with the advantage the Indianapolis offensive line should have over the New York pass rush. Record: 0-3
 
Week 4 vs Denver: L - While the Broncos went 7-9 last season, they have championship aspirations in 2020, as they went 4-1 in Drew Lock's starts last year and added Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam to a group of weapons already containing Philip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Jeff Heuerman while retaining defensive stars in Von Miller, AJ Johnson, and Justin Simmons. Though it is a home game, it's hard to imagine the Jets defeating the Broncos in 2020. Record: 0-4
 
Week 5 vs Arizona: W - The Cardinals look poised to improve in 2020, with the additions of DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Phillips, and Isaiah Simmons, but questions remain with the offensive line and defensive line, in addition to with the poor playcalling from Kingsbury and Joseph at times during last season. This could be a key game for Quinnen Williams, Henry Anderson, Steve McLendon, and the interior defensive line to feast on a poor Cardinals' interior offensive line, and for Gregg Williams to outmatch Kingsbury and Murray at home. Record: 1-4
 
Week 6 at LA Chargers: L - The Chargers revamped their team this offseason, adding Justin Herbert in the draft and surrounding him with Bryan Bulaga, Trai Turner, and Joe Reed on offense, and Kenneth Murray and Chris Harris on defense. Though the quarterback situation is in flux in LA, it’s a bit hard to envision the Jets going on the road to the West Coast and beating an otherwise well-rounded team. Record: 1-5
 
Week 7 vs Buffalo: W - The Jets have beat the Bills at least once in 8 of the last 10 seasons, and so the Jets should have a good chance to win one at home. Record: 2-5
 
Week 8 at Kansas City: L - The Chiefs has a pretty quiet offseason aside from locking up Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones on long-term deals, as they added Mike Remmers, Taco Charlton, Willie Gay, and Lucas Niang while losing Stefen Wisniewski, Emmanuel Ogbah, Reggie Ragland, and Kendall Fuller. Despite the offseason losses, Reid and Mahomes should easily be able to storm past the Jets at home. Record: 2-6
 
Week 9 vs New England: W - The Patriots took a hit this offseason, obviously headlined by the loss of Tom Brady but also supplemented by key defensive losses in Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, and Duron Harmon in addition to a general lack of attention towards improving a lackluster wide receiver corps. The Jets haven't beat the Patriots since their week 16 overtime thriller in 2015, but a November home game could be a good chance to do it, as the Patriots don't really possess the weapons to exploit issues with the Jets' cornerbacks nor the pass rushers to exploit issues with the Jets' offensive line. Record: 3-6
 
Week 10 at Miami: W - The Dolphins had a very poor 2019, finishing 5-11 with the 27th-ranked total offense and the 30th-ranked total defense, and as such they had an incredibly busy offseason, adding Matt Breida, Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah, Elandon Roberts, and Byron Jones in free agency and Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, Robert Hunt, Raekwon Davis, and Solomon Kindley in the draft. However, in Miami before the bye would be a good chance for Adam Gase to get a revenge game win, seeing as the Dolphins still have weaknesses all over their roster including quarterback, offensive tackle, and edge rusher. Record: 4-6
 
WEEK 11 BYE
 
Week 12 vs Miami: L - With all their offseason additions, the Dolphins figure to match up fairly evenly with the Jets in 2020, and so it's likely that the two teams will split the season series. Record: 4-7
 
Week 13 vs Las Vegas: W - The Raiders had a very busy offseason, adding Jason Witten, Maliek Collins, Nick Kwiatkoski, Prince Amukamara, and Damarious Randall in free agency and Henry Ruggs, Damon Arnette, Lynn Bowden, Bryan Edwards, and Amik Robertson in the draft with their only major losses being Darryl Worley and Karl Joseph. At home against a West Coast opponent, the Jets would be wise to take advantage of some of the Raiders’ weaknesses in this game, including inexperience at wide receiver, edge rusher, linebacker, and cornerback. Record: 5-7
 
Week 14 at Seattle: L - The Seahawks went 11-5 last season and were one play away from securing the top seed in the NFC, so their offseason was pretty quiet, mostly focusing on the offensive line with the losses of Germain Ifedi, DJ Fluker, and George Fant and the additions of free agents Brandon Shell, BJ Finney, and Cedric Ogbuehi, and draft pick Damien Lewis. Pete Carroll is one of the best coaches in football today, and in this late-season matchup at Seattle he’ll have the personnel advantage against the Jets offense, which lacks talented weapons and blockers. Record: 5-8
 
Week 15 at LA Rams: L - The Rams regressed to 9-7 last year and then had a difficult offseason, losing Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Dante Fowler, and Nickell Robey-Coleman, with their only major addition being A’Shawn Robinson. The 2020 Rams are not the Super Bowl Rams of the past, but with both McVay and Goff still on board, the Rams have to be favorites to take this late-season home game against the Jets. Record: 5-9
 
Week 16 vs Cleveland: W - The Browns had a busy offseason, hiring head coach Kevin Stefanski, losing Greg Robinson, Joe Schobert, and Damarious Randall, signing Austin Hooper, Jack Conklin, Andrew Billings, Karl Joseph, and Damarious Randall, and drafting Jedrick Wills, Grant Delpit, and Jacob Phillips. Despite these additions, however, Cleveland still has a new, inexperienced offensive playcaller at head coach and a question mark at quarterback, and Gregg Williams generally handles quarterbacks who struggle with post-snap reads well with disguised coverages and aggressive blitz packages. Record: 6-9
 
Week 17 at New England: L - With the expanded playoffs, the Patriots have an even greater chance to make the postseason this year than they otherwise would, so this late-season match in Foxborough could be a consequential, divisional-revenge game. Record: 6-10
 
Final Record: 6-10
While I firmly believe that the Jets improved significantly this offseason, especially in terms of the offensive line and getting players back from injury, this year’s schedule is substantially more difficult that last year’s, which could result in less games in the wins column for 2020. Last year, the Jets closed out the back-half of their season going 6-2 playing against rookie Daniel Jones, rookie Dwayne Haskins, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Lamar Jackson, rookie Devlin Hodges, and Matt Barkley, and this year the Jets have to play both the AFC West and the NFC West, which is a huge jump in their level of competition.
 

Training Camp Battles to Watch

WR #2: Denzel Mims vs Vyncint Smith
Jets fans would hope that starting receiver isn’t much of a battle, but since rookie wideouts traditionally have been known to take longer learning the playbook, the other receiver spot next to Perriman and Crowder is in flux. Denzel Mims, the rookie receiver from Baylor, is the odds-on favorite to get a starting role and to play as a deep threat and red-zone threat in year one. However, if Mims proves too raw off the bat, the Jets could fall back on Vyncint Smith, who had 17 receptions last year and showed his value as a deep threat.
 
Left Guard: Alex Lewis vs Cameron Clark
Following a 2019 season where Alex Lewis spot-started in place of Kelechi Osemele, the Jets rewarded him with a 3 year, $18.6 MM contract, and he goes into 2020 as the favorite to start at left guard once again. With that being said, the possibility exists that rookie tackle Cameron Clark out of Charlotte will kick inside and compete at left guard.
 
Right Guard: Brian Winters vs Greg Van Roten
After a 2019 season in which Brian Winters went down with a shoulder injury in week 10, many expected the Jets to cut him, but he instead will return as the incumbent starter at right guard. However, new free agent acquisition Greg Van Roten could switch to the right side and compete against Winters to start.
 
Right Tackle: George Fant vs Chuma Edoga
After the Jets had a poor performance form their offensive line in 2019, GM Joe Douglas brought in competition at all position, including at right tackle. George Fant, former Seattle swing tackle, is the presumptive favorite to land the starting job, despite his lack of starting experience and struggles with pass-pro footwork. Chuma Edoga could compete as well, but his performance in both run blocking and pass pro was so shaky last year as a rookie that he needed extensive help from tight ends to prevent the right side from entirely becoming a liability.
 
EDGE #2: Tarell Basham vs Kyle Phillips vs Jabari Zuniga vs John Franklin-Myers
The Jets started Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham at edge rusher last season, so it was somewhat of a shock to see them add absolutely no outside talent until the middle of the third round, and so now Gregg Williams and his defensive staff are forced to make the pitiful decision between starting Basham, Kyle Phillips, Jabari Zuniga, or John Franklin-Myers across from Jenkins. Basham, who the Jets claimed off of waivers in 2018, is probably the odds-on favorite to start once again after notching 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hits in 54% of the Jets' defensive snaps. Kyle Phillips, the second-year player from Tennessee who was a five-star high-school recruit, is a thicker lineman best suited to play on run downs who could push for starting snaps as well. Jabari Zuniga, 3rd-round rookie out of Florida, is a third contender for the starting job, but his interior versatility and similarity to Jenkins in terms of his stiffness and poor pad level could suggest the Jets envision him in more of a rotational role. The wildcard in this battle is John Franklin-Myers, who was claimed by the Jets off of waivers from the Rams at the start of 2019 but who also notched a pair of sacks in his rookie year and is really explosive for his size.
 
DT #2: Henry Anderson vs Nathan Shepherd
This battle won't get much media coverage, as both Anderson and Shepherd project to get plenty of tread on the New York defensive line, but nevertheless the two will compete in training camp for the upper hand in the snap count. Henry Anderson, the penetrating defensive lineman, saw his production fall off a bit in 2019, in part due to a nagging shoulder injury and utilization in different fronts and roles. Nathan Shepherd saw his role increase in the back half of the season after a suspension saw his role increase in the back half of the season after a suspension sidelined him from weeks two through eight, and with a good camp, he could establish himself as the primary nimble-footed complement to the heftier, run-stopping trio of Quinnen Williams, Steve McLendon, and Foley Fatukasi.
 
CB #2: Arthur Maulet vs Quincy Wilson vs Bryce Hall vs Blessuan Austin
The outside cornerback spot across from Pierre Desir is probably the most open starting battle on the team. Arthur Maulet, the undersized but physical cornerback out of Memphis, is probably the favorite to start after outplaying Johnson and Roberts last season to win the left cornerback job. Quincy Wilson, the former second-round pick, should be Maulet's primary competition after the Jets traded a draft pick to acquire him from the Colts. Bryce Hall, the rookie fifth-round corner from Virginia, is a darkhorse to start as well if he is healthy to start the season. Blessuan Austin, the former sixth-round pick, might factor into the competition, but he'll have Williams' doghouse after reacting poorly to his week-16 benching.
 
Kicker: Sam Ficken vs Brett Maher
Sam Ficken, who hit 70% of his kicks last season, will compete with Brett Maher, who hit 67% of his kicks last season, for the starting kicker job, but neither candidate should have to handle kickoffs with rookie punter Braden Mann in the fold.
 

Offensive and Defensive Schemes

Adam Gase, head coach and offensive playcaller for the Jets, runs a zone blocking, short passing offense mostly out of 11 personnel while also mixing in some 2-TE sets. In the run game, Gase is willing to run gap concepts based on his offensive line personnel, but he certainly favors his inside zone running playcalls. In the pass game, Gase likes to stack his receivers, throw checkdowns, split his backs out wide, and utilize the sidelines.
 
Gregg Williams, defensive coordinator for the Jets, runs a 3-4 hybrid, blitz-heavy defense with an emphasis on zone coverage. In the front seven, Williams has used both 3-4 and 4-3 base packages, though he mostly uses nickel fronts and one-gapping penetration schemes. In the secondary, Williams stresses MOFC shells, press-zone concepts, and disguised coverages and blitzes.
 
Huge thanks to u/PlatypusOfDeath for running this series.
Link to hub
submitted by PM-ME-A-PRIME-NUMBER to nyjets [link] [comments]

Week 16 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 1 (DFAroto)

Part 1 of 3

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-16-matchup-guide-strategy-guide-part-2

Part 3 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-16-matchup-guide-strategy-guide-part-3

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Rams ATS: 9-5-0 49ers ATS: 8-5-1
Projected Point Totals: Rams 19.25 49ers 25.75

Rams

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #12
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #3
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (D) S Jaquiski Tartt (D) DT Jullian Taylor (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (27%) Tyler Higbee (21%) Cooper Kupp (15%) Gerald Everett (15%) Todd Gurley (10%) Brandin Cooks (10%) Josh Reynolds (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Todd Gurley (96%, 14, 7) Malcolm Brown (4%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After a pair of encouraging performances for the Rams offense, things went back to their 2019 normals with a rough performance in a road loss to the Cowboys. It appears that perhaps the two-game upswing was more about the opponent’s defense, or lack thereof, than any real improvements. Jared Goff (downgrade) salvaged an otherwise poor outing by racking up the yards in garbage time, and his late passing TD just barely put him above his week 14 point total. This week, he’ll go against one of the best defenses in the league. The Niners have the second ranked pass DVOA and have allowed the 8th fewest FPPG to QBs on the season. They were without some of their top defensive players last week, but look poised to get their starters back this week, so that is no longer a potential upgrade. Consider Goff a low-end QB2 for championship week; he’s not someone we would recommend in any format that starts 1 quarterback.
With LA’s offense in disarray most of the year, it’s been hard to get a consistent valuation on their pass catching options. Robert Woods (downgrade) leads the way with a 27% target share over the past 6 weeks, but he put up a dud 4-17 line last week after four straight big performances. Still, his 9 targets gave him the potential for much more, and are a sign he’ll continue to be the top WR in this offense. Cooper Kupp (downgrade) was mediocre once again, going only 6-41, but grabbed a TD for the third game in a row to salvage his output. Brandin Cooks (downgrade) saw an encouraging eight targets, but it led to just a 4-46 line, and he appears to be third or fourth in line for targets at this point. The Niners are elite against the pass, ranking 2nd by DVOA and giving up the 5th fewest FPPG to WRs, meaning we need to downgrade all three options. Consider Woods a volume-based WR2, Kupp a solid but suddenly low-ceiling WR3, and Cooks a risky WR3/4. If the Niners have all their defensive starters back in the secondary it would be a further downgrade to their outlooks. Owners should get Woods, and possibly Kupp as well, in their lineups, while keeping Cooks on the bench. Tyler Higbee has taken the league and the fantasy world by storm the past three weeks, going over 100 receiving yards in every game. The matchup isn’t easy - San Francisco yields the 3rd fewest FPPG to TEs - but Higbee is too hot to bench at this point. Continue riding him as a TE1 for the fantasy finals.
Update: Even with Gerald Everett returning, Higbee is still in the TE1 mix, but his ceiling should be lowered slightly. Everett isn’t on the fantasy radar in standard leagues, but his presence does add risk to Higbee’s outlook.
RB Breakdown
Although it wasn’t a pretty performance in terms of yardage, Todd Gurley (downgrade) was able to give owners their money's worth by punching in a pair of TDs, one on the ground and one through the air. The Rams offensive line has struggled throughout most of the year, and that combined with Gurley seemingly losing some of his explosiveness has been more than enough to minimize his ability to rack up high rushing totals. He hasn’t been as involved in the passing game this year either. On tap this week is a matchup with the 12th best rush defense by DVOA, and a group that allows the fewest FPPG to RBs on the year. It’s hard to recommend benching Gurley considering his TD potential and his recent uptick in snap share (96% last week), but the matchup is concerning. Consider Gurley more of a mid-range RB2 this week; he’ll need to snag at least one TD to account for a likely mediocre yardage output. There’s no need to roster Malcolm Brown as a handcuff unless your league goes into Week 17.

49ers

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #6
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): CB Troy Hill (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): G Mike Person (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Emmanuel Sanders vs. Jalen Ramsey (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (32%) Deebo Samuel (19%) Emmanuel Sanders (14%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Tevin Coleman (7%) Raheem Mostert (6%) Matt Breida (4%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Raheem Mostert (53%, 15, 2) Tevin Coleman (30%, 4, 1) Matt Breida (19%, 6, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Niners take a two-game losing streak into their divisional matchup against the Rams, and Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a disappointing performance against the Falcons last week. He’s ridden some massive ups and downs this season, but despite it all ranks in the top-15 for fantasy QBs in most formats. The matchup this week will be somewhat challenging - the Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs - so this doesn’t look like a “boom” week on paper. Jimmy G could be pulled into a shootout if the Rams offense kicks into gear, but this looks like a game the Niners win with strong defense and a dominant run game (as they have most of the year). Garoppolo is a risky streamer in fantasy championships, and should be considered more of a mid-range QB2 this week.
Unfortunately for owners relying on him in their semi-final matchups last week, Deebo Samuel came crashing down to earth with only one catch on three targets. It was a disappointing end to a five game streak of 12+ points scored (.5 PPR), and showed the risk of starting any SF wideout in a must win fantasy matchup. Emmanuel Sanders (downgrade) fared even worse, turning his one catch into just nine scoreless yards. Making things even worse, Sanders appears most likely to see Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which means owners should strongly consider fading him across the board. That coverage would potentially open things up for Samuel, but it’s impossible to know exactly how that could shake out. The Rams overall have given up the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, but the main reason they shut down the Cowboys receivers was that they were getting gashed so heavily on the ground the passing game wasn’t even needed. The Niners have a similarly strong ground game, so don’t be surprised to see them look to exploit that rather than try to win in an air-raid shootout. Samuel is a risky but upside WR3, while Sanders (assuming he gets Ramsey in coverage) is a WR3/4 that should likely be avoided in championship lineups. George Kittle is the real #1 option in this offense, and the only option that should be guaranteed a spot in lineups. He’s an elite TE1, and is both game-script and matchup-proof at this point. Keep him plugged in.
RB Breakdown
Another week, another solid performance from Raheem Mostert. He wasn’t as productive as the previous two weeks, but he out-touched Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman a combined 15-10. This backfield is extremely hard to predict on a weekly basis, but it does appear as though Mostert is the 1A while Breida and Coleman operate as dual 1B options. The Rams don’t pose an overly intimidating matchup - 6th ranked run DVOA while allowing the 15th most FPPG to RBs. Given the uncertainty, it’s best to approach Mostert as an upside RB2, albeit one with a riskier touch floor than we’d like on championship week, with Breida and Coleman slotting in as TD-dependent RB3/4s. Only Mostert is worth real lineup consideration this week outside of extremely deep leagues.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Rams 13

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Bills ATS: 9-4-1 Patriots ATS: 8-6-0
Projected Point Totals: Bills 16 Patriots 22.5

Bills

Opp (NE) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (NE) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (NE) Weighted DEF: #1
Injuries to Watch DEF (NE): CB Jonathan Jones (D) LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Q) LB Jamie Collins (Q) CB Jason McCourty (Q) DL Danny Shelton (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OL Ty Nsekhe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: John Brown vs. Stephon Gillmore (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): John Brown (27%) Cole Beasley (21%) Devin Singletary (13%) Isaiah McKenzie (13%) Dawson Knox (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Devin Singletary (71%, 23, 3) Frank Gore (29%, 10, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bills continue to win with a dominant defense rather than a gun-slinging offense, but Josh Allen (downgrade) ranks as a QB1 on the season due in large part to his rushing ability. The Patriots are one of the toughest matchups for any fantasy position - they cede the fewest FPPG to QBs on the year - so this likely isn’t the week to call Allen’s number. If Buffalo is to pull the upset, it will likely be in a low-scoring defensive battle rather than a shootout, which the low projected point total reflects. Consider Allen a mid-range QB2; his rushing gives him somewhat of a floor, but he has little chance of hitting his ceiling against this extremely elite defense.
The Bills offense, due to its lack of high scoring games, has only a few productive options. John Brown (downgrade) is currently in the high-end WR2 range on the season, and was solid last week even in a tough matchup. Cole Beasley (not recommended) has been more of a deep-league asset, but his occasional TDs have put him on the map as a reasonable WR4 streamer in the right matchups. Unfortunately for both these players, this week’s game will feature an opposing defense near the best in the league at limiting WRs. The Pats have the best pass defense by DVOA, and allow the fewest FPPG to the position. Brown is slated to face stud CB Stephon Gillmore in coverage as well, which is a significant individual downgrade. Brown is somewhat tough to bench based on his productivity, but owners with alternative options should highly consider looking elsewhere. Although Beasley won’t have to deal with Gillmore, he still is not a recommended start against NE. Consider Brown a boom-bust WR3 with a low floor this week, and Beasley a risky TD-dependent WR4. Dawson Knox is not on the fantasy radar at this point.
RB Breakdown
While not yet an elite fantasy asset, Devin Singletary (downgrade) is beginning to emerge as one of the more impressive young RBs in the league. He’s gone over 75 yards rushing in 5 of his last 7 games played, and pops out on tape as a guy that can make defenders miss while showing elite burst in short spaces. He had an unfortunate fumble in last week’s win against the Steelers, but considering that was his first of the year and the Bills seem committed to feeding him, expect another heavy workload again this week. The matchup, unfortunately, is not a favorable one. The Patriots have the 7th ranked rush DVOA and have given up the second fewest FPPG to RBs. Singletary doesn’t catch a lot of passes, and has to compete with Frank Gore for short yardage and goal-line opportunities, so he doesn’t have enough going his way to counteract the tough matchup. He is capable of breaking a few big plays at any time, but it’s best to consider Singletary a lower-end RB2 this week based on the matchup. Leave Gore on the wire in every possible format.

Patriots

Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #3
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (BUF) Weighted DEF: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): DT Corey Liuget (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NE): WR Julian Edelman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: No clear shadow matchups projected (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julian Edelman (25%) James White (16%) Jakobi Meyers (12%) Mohamed Sanu (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Sony Michel (42%, 20, 4) James White (38%, 6, 4) Rex Burkhead (31%, 8, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It might be time to officially panic about the state of this Patriots offense, despite a predictable drubbing of the Bengals last week. Tom Brady (downgrade) is lacking the weapons necessary to elevate his game, and the offensive line hasn’t been as dominant at giving him time to throw as in previous years. The Bills are a tough matchup through the air - they allow the 2nd fewest FPPG to QBs - so Brady should likely be ignored in championship lineups unless owners are digging deep in 2QB leagues. Consider him a mid to low-end QB2 whose floor is lower than others in this range due to his lack of rushing output. Leave him on your bench or on waivers altogether.
The Patriots passing game is hard to read heading into Week 16, as Julian Edelman (downgrade) has been limited at practice, after looking unproductive last week perhaps due to injury. There are a plethora of receiving options behind Edelman, but none have any real standalone value as long as Edelman is able to gut it out this weekend. N’Keal Harry caught a TD last week, but hasn’t gone over 20 receiving yards in his five active games. He would get a boost, as would Mohamed Sanu, if Edelman were to sit, but neither have very appealing outlooks. The matchup with Buffalo is difficult as well - they cede the fourth fewest FPPG to WRs. Keep close tabs on Edelman’s status, and only consider benching if you have solid alternatives or if he has a reported setback. He’s somewhat of a risky WR2 heading into the week. Sanu and Harry aren’t more than hail-mary WR4s, and even if Edelman were out would be just boom-bust WR3 streamers. We do like Harry’s red zone abilities, however. Consider avoiding this situation entirely, and monitor Edelman’s status if you own him. There is no fantasy relevant TE to monitor for the Pats at this time (miss you Gronk).
RB Breakdown
It has been a disappointing year for those invested in Sony Michel, as the second-year back hasn’t been a consistent fantasy producer through most of the season. Michel is both game-script and TD-dependent, suffering from inefficiency and a lack of touches in a multitude of games. This week will be an interesting test; the Bills have a below-average rush DVOA but give up the 12th fewest FPPG to RBs. Additionally, it’s hard to predict the game flow for this game as the two teams appear well matched and the last game between them was a 16-10 slugfest with NE getting the win. James White continues to be heavily involved in the passing game, and has racked up at least 9 points in all but two healthy games (.5 PPR). Rex Burkhead even got in on the action last week, although that may have been due more to the blowout nature of the game. For championship week, owners should view Michel as a risk-reward RB2/3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. Consider White a high-floor RB2 in PPR leagues, and more of a solid flex in standard, while leaving Burkhead safely on the wire.
Score Prediction: Patriots 17, Bills 13

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Texans ATS: 7-7-0 Buccaneers ATS: 5-8-1
Projected Point Totals: Texans 26 Buccaneers 27

Texans

Opp (TB) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (TB) Run DVOA: #1
Opp (TB) Weighted DEF: #8
Injuries to Watch DEF (TB): DL Beau Allen (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): TE Darren Fells (Q) WR Will Fuller (Q) WR DeAndre Hopkins (extremely likely to play) RB Carlos Hyde (Q, likely to play)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeAndre Hopkins (30%) Will Fuller (24%) Keke Coutee (14%) Duke Johnson (12%) Kenny Stills (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Carlos Hyde (67%, 26, 0) Duke Johnson (33%, 4, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Texans got a needed bounce-back win against the Titans last week after losing to Denver the previous week, and put themselves in great position for the playoffs in doing so. Deshaun Watson (upgrade) was solid, but not dominant, and proved his floor is still higher than most at the position. The Bucs are an excellent matchup for him to carry his fantasy owners this week - they have given up the 7th most FPPG to QBs. Continue to ride Watson as an elite QB1 this week; we expect he’ll be on a lot of championship rosters when the dust settles on monday night.
Despite some difficult matchups the past few weeks, DeAndre Hopkins (upgrade) has come through for owners over the past month, and should be a fixture in lineups yet again this week. He missed practice for an illness on wednesday, but is in very little danger of missing the game. Tampa Bay is one of the more vulnerable teams for WRs to play, so continue to treat Hopkins as an elite WR1. The bigger question is what to do, if anything, with the Texans auxiliary options. Will Fuller (upgrade) got back into action last week, and was able to log a limited practice session on Wednesday. It appears he should be given the green light to play about the same number of snaps (59 of 63 total) as last week, meaning he becomes an intriguing option. The Bucs have given up the most FPPG to WRs, and Fuller is capable of the kind of game that could carry owners to the championship. Monitor injury reports closely, but if Fuller is cleared he should likely be in lineups as an upside WR3. Kenny Stills (streamer) was actually more productive in the games Fuller played than the games he missed over the past two months of the season, but even so he makes for an unreliable option this week. The matchup gives him some upside, but the target share will be hard to trust. Consider him a boom-bust WR3/4. Keke Coutee is off the fantasy radar, and Darren Fells and Jordin Akins are dart throw TE2s that you are just hoping catch a TD. If Fells were to sit (currently questionable), it would make Akins a slightly more attractive option, but he still would not be on the standard league radar. Hopefully you have a more trustworthy option.
RB Breakdown
In the massive Week 15 showdown, Carlos Hyde (downgrade) came through in a big way for the Texans. He racked up 104 rushing yards and a TD, although he didn’t record a catch, per usual. Duke Johnson (downgrade) handled much of the pass-down work, but recorded a season-low 23 total yards, and got only four touches. The Bucs have arguably the league's best run defense, ranking first in DVOA and allowing the 3rd fewest FPPG to RBs. That makes it extremely risky to trust Hyde, even coming off a big week, and should all but eliminate Johnson from consideration in any lineup outside of an extremely deep PPR league. Consider Hyde a TD-dependent RB2/3, with a downgrade in PPR, and view Duke as a hail-mary RB4 in PPR leagues. Owners will hope a shootout leads to a few goal-line opportunities for Hyde to cash in on. Hyde missed practice on Wednesday, but it was “non-injury related” so owners merely need to keep an eye on the situation.

Buccaneers

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #15
Opp (HOU) Weighted DEF: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): S Jahleel Addae (Q) OLB Jacob Martin (Q) ILB Benardrick McKinney (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TB): WR Mike Evans (OUT-IR) WR Chris Godwin (D) TE Tanner Hudson (Q) C Ryan Jensen (Q) T Donovan Smith (Q) QB Jameis Winston (P)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Chris Godwin (19%) Mike Evans (17%) Cameron Brate (13%) O.J. Howard (12%) Breshad Perriman (10%) Ronald Jones (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Ronald Jones (45%, 12, 3) Peyton Barber (28%, 12, 2) Dare Ogunbowale (28%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Buccaneers roller coaster season continued, peaking again last week in a blowout road win against the slumping Detroit Lions. Jameis Winston (upgrade) lit the world on fire, throwing for 458-yards and four touchdowns. In rare form, Winston played a very clean game, only throwing one pass to the other team; in typical Winston fashion, it occured within the first three minutes of play on the opening drive. It’s a tradition at this point. On tap is another slumping defense, HOU has been burned through the air of late, ranking near the bottom in Pass DVOA and Weighted DVOA - ceding 21.8 FPPG to QBs and 23.2 to RBs - plug Winston into lineups as a feast-or-famine QB1. Like he demonstrated last week, he has the potential to be a league winner.
Congratulations are in order if you managed to snag and play Breshard Perriman (upgrade volume). Chances are you made the finals, especially if Winston was stacked as well. Chris Godwin (likely out) has yet to practice this week, and it’s looking extremely unlikely that he’ll suit up (UPDATE-Godwin is OUT). With fellow wideout Scotty Miller also placed on IR, the only realistic fantasy options are Perriman and Justin Watson. Perriman should slide immediately into lineups as a volume-based WR2, while Watson is a much riskier endeavour, consider him a boom-or-bust WR4. It remains to be seen if it’ll be a wideout that picks up the targets vacated by Godwin, or perhaps a running back or tight end. Bruce Arians mentioned this week that the running backs will be utilized more in the passing game due to the injuries at receiver. O.J. Howard (upgrade volume) saw 8 targets last week, parlaying them into a 4-46-0 receiving line. He’s been disappointing all season, but may be ready to make some noise. Consider him on the TE1/2 borderline - HOU surrenders 8.5 FPPG to the position. Cameron Brate is no more than a desperation TE2.
RB Breakdown
The Buccaneers rolled up 495 total yards last week, yet only 49 were produced on the ground. Ronald Jones (upgrade IF volume) continues to be the lead back of a three-headed RBBC. He’s the preferred play, and is hopefully used more in the passing game sans Godwin/Evans, but don’t count on it. He’s hard to trust as anything more than a low-floor flex play for fantasy championships. However, the matchup is appealing - HOU has hemorrhaged rushing yards to opponents, giving up 132.7 per game over the last three, also ceding 20.3 FPPG to RBs. Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale shouldn’t see lineups, the volume hasn’t been there consistently.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Buccaneers 24

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

Lions ATS: 5-9-0 Broncos ATS: 8-6-0
Projected Point Totals: Lions 15.5 Broncos 22

Lions

Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #17
Opp (DEN) Weighted DEF: #12
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): DE Adam Gotsis (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DET): WR Marvin Jones Jr. (OUT-IR) RB Bo Scarbrough (Q) RT Rick Wagner (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Kenny Golladay vs. Chris Harris Jr. (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Danny Amendola (20%) Marvin Jones (19%) Kenny Golladay (17%) T.J. Hockenson (15%) J.D. McKissic (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Ty Johnson (45%, 6, 5) Wes Hills (36%, 12, 2) J.D. McKissic (19%, 3, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Lions head to Week 16 in full meltdown. Owner Martha Ford announced Tuesday that both coach Matt Partricia and general manager Bob Quinn will retain their jobs for the 2020 season, giving them three years to build the program together (ESPN). It’s a curious move, considering that Patricia is 9-20-1 in his tenure. Plus, the Lions haven’t looked competitive in the second half of either season. In fairness, the injury bug hit quite hard this year, but it’s safe to assume that both coach and GM are on the hot seat. David Blough doesn’t appear to be anything special, and can be avoided in all but the deepest of formats - DEN cedes just 15.7 FPPG to QBs and 21 to WRs.
It was Danny Amendola (PPR), not Kenny Golladay, drawing the Lion’s share of the targets in a smash spot against the Bucs. Amendola looks to be the clear beneficiary of the Marvin Jones Jr. (out-IR) injury. The 3 game sample size of Blough to Golladay has produced 4-158-1, 6-58-1, and 3-44-0 receiving lines. It’s not too far off from the variable production we’ve seen from Golladay all year, and he’s due a breakout week. However, against an upward trending Denver defense, while shadowed by stud CB Chris Harris Jr. probably isn’t the place to expect it. Strangely enough, Kenny G’s best game with Blough came in the toughest matchup they’ve faced (vs. CHI), so maybe they find the connection again this week. Chris Harris (PFF’s No. 42 CB) has been lit up in back-to-back weeks by DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill, so the matchup is exploitable. Consider Golladay a back-end WR2. Golladay’s expected shadow date may open a few more looks for Amendola, he’s a WR3 in PPR formats. It’s a much tougher draw this week for the entire passing game, so keep expectations tempered. The auxiliary passing options can be faded.
RB Breakdown
The Detroit backfield is one of the bigger headaches in fantasy football. It was Wes Hills, fresh off the practice squad without an NFL carry, leading the Lion’s backfield last week in the absence of Bo Scarbrough, who’s questionable for Week 16. The possible return of Kerryon Johnson further muddies the waters, and considering The Broncos allow just 3.9 yards per carry to RBs (sportingnews), the entire backfield should likely be faded. Especially Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic. If Scarbrough is active, and Johnson is not, Scarbrough can be considered a volume based back-end RB2 - DEN cedes 15.6 FPPG to RBs - if it’s the reverse, consider Kerryon a name value only, he’ll likely to be limited in some capacity in his first game back. If both are inactive, fade the situation.

Broncos

Opp (DET) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (DET) Run DVOA: #14
Opp (DET) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (DET): LB Devon Kennard (Q) DT A’Shawn Robinson (Q) LB Christian Jones (Q) DE Damon Harrison (P)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): RT Ja’Wuan James (OUT) RG Ron Leary (Q) LG Dalton Risner (Q) TE Noah Fant (P)
Key WCB matchups: Courtland Sutton vs. Darius Slay (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Courtland Sutton (24%) Noah Fant (16%) Tim Patrick (14%) DaeSean Hamilton (11%) Phillip Lindsay (8%) Royce Freeman (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Royce Freeman (54%, 9, 4) Phillip Lindsay (39%, 7, 2) Devontae Booker (8%, 2, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
For fantasy managers starting Denver players, Sunday’s game against Kansas City was an unmitigated disaster. Leading the offense to only a field goal, Drew Lock (upgrade) threw for 208 yards and no scores, with an interception. It was the rookie’s first poor outing, and he’ll look to bounce back against an extremely vulnerable Lion’s secondary - DET hemoragges 21.4 FPPG to QBs and 26.6 to WRs - Lock can be considered in 2QB formats, and the entire passing game gets an upgrade.
Courtland Sutton (upgrade) cobbled together a 4-79-0 receiving line in the blowout road loss, and now looks to do battle with Darius Slay (PFF’s No. 80 CB). Slay has been exploited along with the rest of the defense of late, and Sutton has shown the ability to win his shadow matchups. Consider him a fringe WR1 in the smash spot. Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton’s low target share in an inconsistent passing game, render both WR4 dart throws, even in the great matchup. Noah Fant has flashed game-breaking ability, but has also demonstrated an extremely low-floor. This puts him just outside the TE1 ranks this week, but he possesses perhaps the greatest ceiling outside of the elite TE1 tier. The matchup is average, DET cedes 7.7 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
The Denver run game along with the rest of the offense sputtered last week. It was disappointing, especially considering the matchup against the Chiefs exploitable run defense. Royce Freeman lead the backfield in touches and snaps, but neither he nor Phillip Lindsay were able to do much with their limited touches. While Detroit’s Run DVOA is better than their Pass DVOA, game-script should work in the Broncos favor. Lindsay remains the preferred play, look for him to bounce back as an RB2 - DET cedes 22.8 FPPG to RBs - Freeman is riskier, consider him a touchdown dependent flex.
Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Lions 16

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

Raiders ATS: 6-8-0 Chargers ATS: 4-8-2
Projected Point Totals: Raiders 20.25 Chargers 26.75

Raiders

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #19
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (P)
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): RB Josh Jacobs (OUT) T Trent Brown (Q) G Richie Incognito (Q) WR Hunter Renfrow (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None, Hayward didn’t shadow Williams in Week 10 (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (22%) Hunter Renfrow (17%) Tyrell Williams (13%) Jalen Richard (10%) DeAndre Washington (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Josh Jacobs (57%, 26, 3) Jalen Richard (29%, 3, 3) DeAndre Washington (15%, 8, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Trash rained down from the stands onto the field after a stunning late game collapse by the Raiders. The Jaguars walked away with a victory, while Jon Gruden and his team were left with an apology from the NFL for a blown call late in the game. Derek Carr had given himself up well before the sideline, and should have been ruled in-bounds, keeping the clock moving - yet the officials ruled him out, giving the Jaguars an additional 40 seconds for their game-winning drive. It was a bitter end to Oakland’s bumpy 25 tenure in the Bay. On tap is an AFC West rival fresh off a disappointing outing of their own. Carr is fringe 2QB format worthy, and shouldn’t be considered in most settings. The Chargers cede just 14.1 FPPG to QB’s, and just 16.5 to WRs.
Outside of Darren Waller, options in the passing game for Oakland’s offense have been largely non-existent. Hunter Renfrow appears ready to make his return, but the matchup renders him a low-floor PPR play. Tyrell Williams has largely bottomed-out over the last five games, clearing 50 yards receiving just once. He’s a floor option WR3 against a defense that surrenders just 197.4 passing yards per game, good for 4th best in the league. Waller is an every week TE1, get him active.
RB Breakdown
It’s been announced that Josh Jacobs (OUT) will sit for Week 16 in hopes of playing Week 17. That thrusts DeAndre Washington (upgrade volume) immediately into the RB2 conversation. The matchup is average, the Chargers give up the 17th most yards rushing per game at 110 - also ceding 20 FPPG to RBs - Washington needs to be in most lineups, and is a good bet to find paydirt. Jalen Richard should mix in as well, but he’s no more than a desperation flex play. Neutral game-script seems likely, meaning it’s unlikely that Washington is phased out in favor of the pass-catching Richard.

Chargers

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #26
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): T Russell Okung (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (25%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (16%) Hunter Henry (14%) Melvin Gordon (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Austin Ekeler (48%, 12, 7) Melvin Gordon (40%, 12, 7) Justin Jackson (21%, 7, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The disappointing season continued for the Chargers, who are essentially playing all of their home games on the road. The Vikings thoroughly embarrassed veteran signal caller Phillip Rivers (upgrade), turning him over 4 times. The Chargers as a team gave the ball away an eye-popping 7 times. On tap is an extremely vulnerable Oakland team, coming off a heart-breaking defeat. Rivers is extremely untrustworthy for 1QB formats, but the exploitable matchup keeps him in the discussion for 2QB leagues - OAK hemorrhages 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 25.3 to WRs.
Both Keenan Allen (upgrade) and Mike Williams (upgrade) put together solid fantasy outings in their dismantling at home. Williams pushed his touchdown streak to two games, while Allen was a yard short of breaking the century mark, something he’s done just twice this season. It’s a smash spot for the Chargers passing game, yet in Week 10 when these two teams met, it wasn’t taken advantage of. Look for that to change this week. Williams has thrived on the deep ball the last six weeks, possessing an ADoT of 23.1 yards. That’s good for the No. 1 spot for wideouts with over 10 catches in that span. Considering that OAK surrenders explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on a league worst 14% of plays (sharpfootballstats), the matchup should be considered a home run for Williams. Hunter Henry (upgrade) found his floor last week against the Vikings, busting with a 2-29-0 receiving line. Look for him to bounce back as well - OAK gives up 9.6 FPPG to TEs, second worst in the NFL.
RB Breakdown
Both Melvin Gordon (upgrade standard) and Austin Ekeler (upgrade PPR) found their floor against the Vikings. Gordon had perhaps his worst day as a pro, fumbling twice, and only producing 7-28-0 on the ground, and 5-36-0 receiving. Last time these two teams faced off, Gordon produced an RB1 day. Game-script should keep both backs involved, and Gordon is a good bet to find pay dirt. Consider both RB2’s in their preferred formats.
Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Raiders 17
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Week 6 - Matchup Strategy Guide (Part 2)

Check out Part 1 Right Here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/nfl/week-6-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

49ers ATS: 3-1-0 Rams ATS: 4-1-0
Projected Team Totals: 49ers 23.75 Rams 26.75

49ers

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): LB Clay Matthews (OUT) CB Aqib Talib (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): T Joe Staley (OUT) Mike McGlinchey (OUT) FB Kyle Juszczyk (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): George Kittle (25%) Deebo Samuel (15%) Marquise Goodwin (11%) Dante Pettis (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Matt Breida (34%, 14, 3) Tevin Coleman (34%, 16,0) Raheem Mostert (32%, 7, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Don’t look now, but San Francisco is 4-0 for the first time since 1990 (ESPN). As an avid SF fan, I'd like to believe this team is for real, but the fact that they haven’t faced a team with a winning record can’t be ignored. The teams they’ve faced so far are a combined 5-15… The Rams are going to be their first legitimate test and the winner is in the driver's seat to win the NFC West. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been spectacular from a fantasy standpoint and isn’t an option in 1QB leagues, but he’s been solid, posting the 14th best QBR. He really hasn’t been asked to do much as SF has ran away with most of their games. While rookie Deebo Samuel posted some good fantasy lines this season, there really is no clear No. 1 receiver for SF, 5 wideouts are consistently seeing snaps. At this point, all of the SF wideouts should be avoided due to the unpredictability of where volume will be going any given week. Samuel is at best an upside WR4/5. Marquise Goodwin is the second best bet to produce, while Dante Pettis belongs on the wire. George Kittle has graded out as the best player in the league (PFF) through 5 weeks and is an absolute stud. He did pick up a groin injury on Friday, and is now questionable for Sunday, so monitor his status before kickoff. Assuming health, he’s locked and loaded as a TE1 every week.
RB Breakdown
The San Francisco running game seems to have narrowed down to the two man race originally pictured when the team signed Tevin Coleman in the offseason. Matt Breida (upgrade PPR) put up the big line last week, but Coleman saw the most carries in his return from injury. Raheem Mostert was involved as well, but only saw 7 carries in a game SF ran an eye-popping 40 times. Jeff Wilson was inactive last week, but could be used as the FB this week, replacing injured FB Klye Juszcczyk (Ninersnation). He’s not a fantasy option. Interestingly, LAR is ranked in the top-10 for Run DVOA, but is bottom-10 in FPPG to running backs at 21.5. The matchup is exploitable for the SF backs and both can be considered RB2 options in a game carrying the 3rd highest projected point total.
Rams
Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #5
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): CB Ahkello Witherspoon (OUT) DE Dee Ford (Q, on track to play)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): Todd Gurley (Q) WR Brandin Cooks (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Cooper Kupp (28%) Robert Woods (21%) Brandin Cooks (15%) Gerald Everett (12%) Todd Gurley (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Todd Gurley (96%, 18, 5) Malcolm Brown (4%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Jared Goff’s (downgrade) new contract is starting to become a hot topic around the NFL due to his poor play and the four-years and 134 million dollars remaining. It’s safe to wonder if he’s the long term answer or if the Rams shot themselves in the foot by getting ahead of themselves with the new contract. He’s currently the QB15 through 5 weeks, and a QB2 this week against possibly the best pass-rush in the NFL (11.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks). Probably the only bigger fantasy/real life disappointment this year is Baker Mayfield. Brandin Cooks has managed to pass through the concussion protocol well in advance of Sunday's game, so he joins Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Gerald Everett as Goff’s main targets. Kupp has continued a reign he started last year before tearing his ACL, and he needs to be considered a matchup proof WR1 moving forward, getting 9+ targets every week of the season. Woods is a solid WR2 and a threat to break a few big plays every week. Everett has put together impressive back-to-back weeks, and was putting up solid numbers even before Cooks went out last week. He’s a back-end TE1 against a defense only allowing 3.2 FPPG to tight ends. That number is extremely skewed due to the teams they’ve faced, but temper expectations with Everett. Cooks himself is a WR2/3 that may have a lower ceiling this year due to the O-Line issues, but consistently piles up targets and yardage every week.
RB Breakdown
Todd Gurley is out Sunday with a quad injury, and if you saw our waiver article earlier in the week, it was highly recommended that Gurley owners scoop Malcolm Brown while they could. With Gurley likely out, Brown becomes a plug and play volume based RB2 in a tough matchup. The 49ers have only given up an amazing 9 FPPG to running backs so far. However, they really haven’t faced a competent offense yet. Rookie Darrell Henderson (stash) should be added but not started to see how things play out. There’s a chance his role could grow in the absence of Gurley, especially in the passing game - he caught 63 passes in 3 years at Memphis (Ramwire). If he sees meaningful minutes this week, he could be considered as a flex option next week in a smash spot for the Rams offense against ATL.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 21

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Falcons ATS: 1-4-0 Cardinals ATS: 3-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 27 Cardinals 24.5

Falcons

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #30
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #22
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Patrick Peterson (OUT, Suspended) LB Terrell Suggs (Q) LB Ezekiel Turner (Q) S Charles Washington (Q) LB Dennis Gardeck (Q) LB Haason Reddick (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): C Alex Mack (Q, practiced in a limited fashion) WR Julio Jones (expected to play)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Julio Jones (20%) Austin Hooper (19%) Mohamed Sanu (16%) Calvin Ridley (14%) Devonta Freeman (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Devonta Freeman (53%, 16, 5) Ito Smith (47%, 11, 6)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Atlanta’s defense the last few years has been abysmal, in 2017 they finished 22nd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA efficiency measure. In 2018, they were 31st (SBnation). Dan Quinn was heralded as a defensive guru, but clearly something is very wrong with whatever the Falcons are doing on that side of the ball. On the other side, the offense has struggled almost as badly this year. Week 6 offers a smash spot for the Falcons to get back on track. Matt Ryan (upgrade) offers top-5 upside at quarterback, Arizona is giving up 23.2 FPPG to the position, 4th worst in the NFL. In the second highest projected point total of Week 6, all of the Falcons pass catchers are in play this week as well. Julio Jones (upgrade) has been limited through the week but is fully expected to play. Without CB Patrick Peterson (serving the last game of his six game suspension) Jones should be heavily involved and is a good bet to finish as the overall WR1 this week. Calvin Ridley (upgrade) has been disappointing the past few weeks, but Arizona’s terrible secondary offers a smash spot for the talent sophomore receiver. Hopefully his target share becomes more consistent as the season moves on, he’s been #4 in the pecking order thus far. Mohamed Sanu (upgrade) is also in play this week as a WR3/4 for bye-week needy owners. Austin Hooper is a top-3 tight end option against an Arizona team that cannot guard the position, hemorrhaging 16.4 FPPG. The Cardinals linebackers are all sorts of banged up as well, offering even more upside for Hooper.
RB Breakdown
Devonta Freeman (upgrade) and Ito Smith have split snaps evenly all year, capping Freemans upside. Atlanta’s struggles on offense haven’t helped either, Freeman has seen just 2 carries inside the opponents 10 yard line this year. The Cards run defense isn’t anything to write home about, and this is a great spot for him to breakout of his funk - consider him an RB2 with added upside in PPR leagues due to his consistent pass game usage.

Cardinals

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #30
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): CB Desmond Trufant (OUT) CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Christian Kirk (Q, trending toward playing) WR Damiere Byrd (Q) RB David Johnson (Q, GTD)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Larry Fitzgerald (22%) Christian Kirk (22%) David Johnson (16%) KeeSean Johnson (13%) Damiere Byrd (13%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: David Johnson (67%, 20, 5) Chase Edmonds (33%, 11, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Air-Raid offense hasn’t produced in the fashion Kingsbury hoped so far, but it’s not all bad, Arizona sits 15th ranked with 363.3 Yds/G. Maybe more importantly, the Cards are 5th in the NFL in plays per game (67.8). Atlanta is 11th (65). There is clearly plenty of room for improvement and the matchup offers a great pace for it. Kyler Murray (upgrade) has been getting better every week and should be considered a top-8 QB Sunday. Atlanta boasts a true pass funnel, having a top-10 run defense and second worst pass defense - the Air-Raid should be firing on all cylinders. Larry Fitzgerald (upgrade) will be the primary target if Christian Kirk is forced to miss another game (currently questionable w/ankle). ATL has been abysmal against the slot, giving up 20.36 FPPG (Next Gen Stats) - Fitz is an upside WR2. It appears Kirk is a game time call, and should be considered a WR2 as well if he suits up - Atlanta is giving up a league worst 31.1 FPPG to wideouts. Don’t start a tight end in Kingsbury’s offense.
RB Breakdown
David Johnson is looking like a true game time decision, although it appears he'll try and give it a shot to play. This is the worst case scenario for fantasy owners, and it's likely that backup Chase Edmonds is involved even with DJ active to lighten his workload. He needs to be owned across the board. If DJ is forced to miss Sunday’s action, Edmonds will immediately assumed a RB1 workload. Even against ATL’s good run defense, the passing volume for the running backs will keep their floors high.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 35, Falcons 34

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at New York Jets

Cowboys ATS: 3-2-0 Jets ATS: 1-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Cowboys 25.75 Jets 18.75

Jets

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #17
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #20
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NYJ): TE Chris Herndon (OUT) Kelechi Osemele (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Le’Veon Bell (27%) Jamison Crowder (26%) Demaryius Thomas (19%) Robby Anderson (18%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Le’Veon Bell (84%, 22, 9) Ty Montgomery (13%, 2, 0) Bilal Powell (3%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Jets savior has returned just in time to possibly flip the script on their disappointing season. Sam Darnold will be available for the first time since being diagnosed with mono, but he’s not an option for 1 QB leagues at this point. The offense’s outlook is much improved with Darnold returning as Luke Falk was just awful, but Dallas isn’t a great matchup. Jamison Crowder (downgrade) will have better weeks, but the Cowboys are only giving up 12.22 FPPG to slot receivers (Next Gen Stats). Robbie Anderson (downgrade) frankly shouldn’t be seeing lineups right now until we see how things play out with Darnold back. Tight end Chris Herndon (stash) was set to make his return this week but strained his hamstring last Friday working out. He needs to be owned for his upside, and should be ready to play in a couple weeks as the hammy is only a grade 1 strain. Ryan Griffin isn’t a fantasy option.
RB Breakdown
Le’veon Bell is getting an RB1 workload but only producing RB2/Flex numbers. The Jets offensive woes haven’t been helping the talented running back, and neither did the year off as he admitted recently. The return of Darnold should improve Bell’s outlook and Dallas isn’t an imposing matchup giving up 21.1 FPPG to running backs. Consider Bell an RB2 with RB1 upside.
Cowboys
Opp (NYJ) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (NYJ) Run DVOA: #11
Injuries to Watch DEF (NYJ): DL Henry Anderson (D) LB C.J. Mosley (D) LB Jordan Jenkins (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): T Tyron Smith (Q) T La’el Collins (Q) WR Randall Cobb (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Michael Gallup (27%) Amari Cooper (25%) Randall Cobb (16%) Jason Witten (12%) Ezekiel Elliot (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Ezekiel Elliot (93%, 14, 3) Tony Pollard (7%, 4, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Bill Simmons said in a recent podcast that Dallas might be a “good, bad team”. Essentially meaning they beat up on the bad teams and lose to the good ones. It seems like an accurate description of the Cowboys season so far. The Jets have been mediocre on defense, but it’s probably due to being on the field the entire game as their offense keeps putting them in terrible positions. Dak Prescott should be treated as a QB1, but it’s not a smash spot for him or the wideouts. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are both receiving a huge target share, and with Randall Cobb popping up on the injury report late week could see more (is that possible?). Cooper is a matchup proof WR1 and Gallup is an upside WR3. If Cobb misses the game, Devin Smith will see action but isn’t a recommended play. Jason Witten continues to be a low-end TE1 and is an option for desperate owners. At this point outside of the top-3 options, doing well at the tight end position is finding someone to fall into the endzone.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys may be missing two offensive tackles this week. Ezekiel Elliot finished 12-62-1 without T Tyron Smith last week against the Packers back-end run defense. However, this was probably due more in part to the Packers taking a huge lead and forcing Dallas to abandon the run early, rather than offensive line woes. Zeke should be fired up as usual but keep expectations tempered. His volume and goal line work will always provide a high-floor.
Score Prediction: Jets 17, Cowboys 14

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

Broncos ATS: 2-3-0 Titans ATS: 2-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Titans 19.5 Broncos 21

Titans

Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #16
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): CB Bryce Callahan (OUT), S Trey Marshall (Q), DB Duke Dawson Jr. (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Delanie Walker (18%) Corey Davis (16%) Adam Humphries (15%) AJ Brown (13%) Dion Lewis (11%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Derrick Henry (61%, 20, 0) Dion Lewis (40%, 4, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Titans offense has been a rollercoaster ride this year, and Marcus Mariota (downgrade) is a big part of that. In their two wins, he’s gone above 23 fantasy points both times, but in their losses he’s averaged about 13 points. He’s no more than a QB2 streamer, and doesn’t have a great matchup with Denver giving up the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs through 5 weeks. You can likely do better on the wire. AJ Brown and Corey Davis are early frontrunners for the Jeff Fisher trophy, awarded to the most talented player who is criminally wasted by their team. In Dynasty leagues Brown is one of the better investments considering Mariota isn’t guaranteed to be on this roster past 2019 and his talent is enormous, but the path to consistent fantasy value this season is thin. This week, talented CB Chris Harris Jr. is unlikely to shadow either WR, and with Brown’s snap count was on the rise in Week 5, so he is worth rostering on talent alone. His target share is just too small to trust. Davis has gotten more targets, but outside of a Week 4 TD, has little to show for it. If you have to play one, Brown is the choice simply because he has displayed some major big play ability this year. Neither player is more than a low floor flex play this week. Delanie Walker (upgrade) profiles with a better outlook due to his consistently high target share, and is probably the best TD bet amongst receiving options for the Titans as Mariota looks his way consistently in the red zone. Despite two recent duds, Walker is still a borderline TE1 at an extremely thin position.
RB Breakdown
Despite a complete lack of involvement in the passing game, Derrick Henry (upgrade) has managed to get over 11 points (.5 PPR) in every game this year. The Titans have wisely phased Dion Lewis (handcuff only) out of the offense completely, aside for the occasional 2 minute drill or 3rd down situation, leaving a high volume of carries for Henry on a weekly basis. His floor is lower than other elite backs, but Henry remains on the RB1/2 borderline due to his TD upside. The Broncos have been a below average rush-defense by DVOA metrics and have given up the 5th most FPPG to RBs. Henry is a great bet to get into the endzone in what projects as a grind-it-out type game, and will likely exceed 75 yards rushing on volume alone as Tennessee rides him to attempt an upset on the road.

Broncos

Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA:#14
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #13
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN): LB Sharif Finch (OUT), DE Cameron Wake (OUT), CB Chris Milton (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): T Ja’Wuan James (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Courtland Sutton (23%) Emmanuel Sanders (21%) Phillip Lindsay (14%) Royce Freeman (12%) Noah Fant (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Phillip Linsday (46%, 19, 4) Royce Freeman (54%, 15, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Things haven’t come easy for the Broncos this year, but a win against the Chargers last week was a huge step in the right direction. Joe Flacco (I wouldn’t) has been able to sustain two fantasy relevant RBs and WRs so far this year, somewhat to the surprise of preseason predictions. However, Flacco himself is only in consideration as a streamer these days, and going up against a stout Titans defense in a likely low scoring game, this is not the game to try your luck. Courtland Sutton has slightly overtaken Emmanuel Sanders on the season for overall target share, but both work in tandem as dual lead receivers for Flacco. The Titans are not especially tough against the pass, but do have a solid secondary. This feels like a game that Denver would win with defense and a strong running game, and the likelihood of a shootout does not seem high. Both Sutton and Sanders are in play as WR3s this week, and Sutton is the slightly preferred play due to his recent hot streak. If defenses start treating Sutton as the #1, it’s possible Sanders could break out in the next few weeks, but it may just be that Sutton is slowly overtaking the veteran as the lead dog here. Noah Fant is not getting the necessary volume to be trusted and is a low-end TE2 that you are hoping finishes with a 2-50-1 line. Don’t do it unless you are really desperate.
RB Breakdown
The split between Phillip Lindsay (upgrade PPR) and Royce Freeman (downgrade) has been almost exactly even this season, but Lindsay has done slightly more with his touches the past few weeks. His involvement in the passing game gives him a higher floor than Freeman, despite Freeman playing slightly more snaps, so he’s a safer start than his counterpart. The Titans have been vulnerable to pass catching backs in previous weeks, giving up the 8th most receptions to opposing RBs, but overall are solid against the run (9th fewest FPPG to RBs). Lindsay is a low-end RB2 with more upside in PPR, and Freeman is a bye week flex option, albeit one that likely needs a rushing TD to get over 10 points for only the second time this year (.5 PPR). Lindsay’s 3 rush TDs to Freeman’s 0 rush TDs are a concerning trend for Freeman owners, and a welcome sight for those riding the Lip Lindsay train.
Score Prediction: Titans 17, Broncos 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)

Steelers ATS: 3-2-0 Chargers ATS: 1-3-1
Projected Team Totals: Steelers 17 Chargers 24

Steelers

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #25
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #25
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): S Nassir Adderley (OUT), DE Melvin Ingram (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PIT): QB Mason Rudolph (OUT), RB Jaylen Samuels (OUT), WR James Washington (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Juju Smith-Schuster (20%) Diontae Johnson (17%) James Washington (12%) James Conner (12%) Vance McDonald (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: James Conner (80%, 14, 0) Jaylen Samuels (25%, 6, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Watching Mason Rudolph go limp was a scary sight last week, but miraculously he was able to practice throughout this week. He was ruled out, however, and the Steelers have named Devlin Hodges the starting QB for Week 6. Hodges is an easy avoid in all formats and any depth, but its not clear how much of a drop off he is from Rudolph in terms of keeping the Steelers weapons fantasy relevant. Hodges spread out his targets pretty evenly amongst the Steelers passing options in his short week 5 audition. Juju Smith Schuster finished with perhaps his most complete game of the season, but with Hodges now the starting QB he can’t be trusted as more than a WR2 at this point. He got 2 targets from Hodges, but figures to be the clear top option for the rookie. James Washington has been ruled out “for a couple weeks” (Rotoworld) further increasing the likelihood of Schuster’s high target share. Stud CB Casey Hayward typically hasn’t travelled into the slot, so Juju’s not expected to be in a true shadow matchup. Start him, but keep expectations in check. Diontae Johnson (downgrade) had been gaining some momentum the past few weeks, but gets a bigger downgrade with Rudolph’s absence. He’s a dart throw WR4/5 in this matchup. Vance McDonald (upgrade) appears close to full health, and got three targets in his return last week. He makes for an interesting play as the safety valve for a rookie QB going up against a strong pass rush, but is still only a borderline top 10 option due to the uncertainty of role. The Chargers are middle of the pack against TEs, so his matchup is not a downgrade to his outlook.
RB Breakdown
The Steelers injury troubles continued last week, as they lost Jaylen Samuels (drop shallow leagues) to a knee injury that will keep him out for about a month. This opens up additional carries and targets for James Conner (upgrade PPR) who should now be the centerpiece of the offense. Conner still has yet to get over 55 rushing yards on the season, but will be a popular target of the rookie QB this week, so he needs to stay locked into lineups. He’s a high-end RB2 this week in PPR, and a low-end RB2 in standard leagues.

Chargers

Opp (PIT) Pass DVOA: #7
Opp (PIT) Run DVOA: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (PIT): LB Mark Barron (Q), CB Steven Nelson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): TE Hunter Henry (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Keenan Allen (27%) Austin Ekeler (21%) Mike Williams (17%) Hunter Henry (15%) Melvin Gordon (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Melvin Gordon (46%, 16, 6) Austin Ekeler (66%, 18, 16)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers offense looked extremely out of sync against the Broncos last week, and it appears that injuries and poor play along the offensive line may be catching up to them. The Steelers have been much better defensively since adding Minkah Fitzpatrick, so they are no longer a cushy matchup for opposing QBs. Phillip Rivers (downgrade) put up a dud in Week 5 after back to back 20+ point weeks, and may lean more heavily on the run game in likely positive game flow. He has potential for 250 and 2 TDs, but is no more than an upper tier QB2 that could be streamed if an owner is short due to bye weeks. Keenan Allen (upgrade) was inexplicably covered by LBs on a high % of his routes when he matched up against the Steelers last year, and should be heavily targeted in the short to intermediate pass game if the Chargers O-Line continues to struggle. He is still in the WR1 ranks. Mike Williams (downgrade) put up a solid 6-74 line in Week 5, but still has yet to reach the endzone. The combination of a stout pass defense, likely positive game flow, and the lack of protection for Rivers to take deep shots all point to a downgrade for Williams. If you are starting him, you’re hoping he can get in the endzone. Hunter Henry (stash) returned to a limited practice on Thursday and is officially questionable to play, but may be on a snap count if he does. He isn’t a trustworthy Week 6 option, but needs to be universally owned as he will be back to the TE1 ranks likely by next week.
RB Breakdown
The Week 5 return of Melvin Gordon (upgrade standard) didn’t yield immediate results for the Chargers, but a bigger Week 6 role is likely in the cards. Austin Ekeler (upgrade PPR) isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but Gordon should get 15+ carries and 4+ targets, and has a good chance for a TD as a home favorite against a middle of the pack rush defense. Treat him as an RB2 who may struggle for consistent yardage as long as the Chargers O-Line is undermanned. Ekeler received an incredible 16 targets in Week 5, so is obviously still in the game plan moving forward. As Gordon gets up to speed, Ekeler may be stuck in the 5-8 carry range, but remains an RB2 in PPR leagues due to his pass game involvement. He’s a big play machine, so don’t hesitate to get him in your lineup for at least another week.
Score Prediction: Chargers 21, Steelers 13

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4)

Lions ATS: 3-1-0 Packers ATS: 4-1-0
Projected Team Totals: Lions 21.5 Packers 25.5

Lions

Opp (GB) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (GB) Run DVOA: #28
Injuries to Watch DEF (GB): S Darnell Savage (DNP, Q), CB Tony Brown (DNP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DET): TE TJ Hockenson (Full practice)
Key WCB matchups: Davante Adams vs. Darius Slay (if both healthy)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Kenny Golladay (26%) Danny Amendola (18%) Marvin Jones (17%) TJ Hockenson (13%) Kerryon Johnson (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Kerryon Johnson (70%, 28, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Coming off of a Week 5 bye, this will be a true test for whether Matthew Stafford (downgrade) can put up good numbers against an above average defense. The Packers have given up the 7th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, and rank as a top 5 pass defense by DVOA. We expect a heavy dose of the run game and at least one interception from the GB defense, so we have him outside the top 12 this week. He is still a high-end QB2 due to his weapons and increased tendency to take deep shots this year, but the volume may not be there as much in this matchup. Kenny Golladay (upgrade standard) has only gotten over 67 yards once this season in 4 games, but has gotten in the endzone 4 times. He gets a slight downgrade in PPR, and will take aim at a difficult matchup with excellent Packers’ CBs, but is a solid WR2 based on TD upside and his status as the #1 option in this offense. Marvin Jones (downgrade) may see a bit more of rising star CB Jaire Alexander, so he is a riskier start with a low floor but an obviously high ceiling. Consider him a boom-bust WR3 in this difficult matchup. TJ Hockenson (downgrade) appears on track to play, but still needs to officially pass concussion protocol. Assuming he’s healthy, he is a high-end TE2 due to the scarcity of depth at the position, but will likely need to get into the endzone to be a worthwhile start. Because he plays on Monday night, owners may be forced to go in another direction if he hasn’t been cleared by the early kickoffs on Sunday morning. With Danny Amendola a limited participant in practice and likely to play, that makes Hockenson’s path to targets all the more challenging.
RB Breakdown
The Lions showed an improved run game in Week 4 against the Chiefs, and Kerryon Johnson finally got the workhorse treatment owners had been waiting for. Fresh off a rest week, KJ goes up against a Packers rush D that has struggled by DVOA metrics and given up the 3rd most FPPG to RBs. We have him as a top-12 play this week in a game he should see a heavy workload. The Lions best chance for a road upset is to feed the beast and keep the Aaron’s off the field. Ty Johnson and J.D McKissick are reportedly battling for the #2 role, so neither makes for an attractive handcuff until one emerges. KJ is the man, and has a good shot at a big game in Week 6.

Packers

Opp (DET) Pass DVOA: #12
Opp (DET) Run DVOA: #14
Injuries to Watch DEF (DET): DT Mike Daniels (OUT), Amani Oruwariye (OUT), CB Darius Slay (limited, Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (GB): Davante Adams (DNP, Doubtful), Q Aaron Rodgers (limited Friday, likely to play)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Davante Adams (25%) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (18%) Aaron Jones (13%) Jimmy Graham (11%) Geronimo Allison (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Aaron Jones (68%, 26, 8) Jamaal Williams *Week 3 (61%, 14, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Owners of Aaron Rodgers (downgrade) had to be frustrated last week watching him hand off the ball to Aaron Jones in the red zone time and time again. Had he been able to turn even two of those drives into passing TDs his line would have been much more appetizing. This is perhaps a sign of things to come, however, as the Packers are content to run the ball heavily this season. We project somewhat of a bounce back game this week, at least in the TD department, but missing his top weapon lowers his upside significantly. View Rodgers as a back-end QB1 that can be benched if owners have another high-end option with a better matchup. With Davante Adams likely out this week due to his turf toe injury (DNP Friday), Marquez Valdes-Scantling becomes the de-facto #1 WR again this week. That role didn’t yield much last week, but keeps him in the low-end WR3/4 range. Darius Slay, a top level CB who often shadows opposing #1s, is questionable to play with a hammy issue, and his absence would presumably be an upgrade for MVS. Geronimo Allison (drop) struggled to cash in on opportunity last week as well, and doesn’t appear to be a big part of the game plan at this point. He’s a threat to get in the end zone, but can’t be viewed as more than a WR4/5 at this point. Jimmy Graham (upgrade) got a slight uptick in work sans Adams last week, and remains on the TE1 radar simply due to his QB looking his way on a few jump balls every week. He’s the most likely of the Packers receiving options to hit the end zone this week, and should be in most lineups unless owners have a top-6 option as an alternative.
RB Breakdown
The hashtag-FreeAaronJones movement finally got some traction last week as he racked up 4 rushing TDs and 182 total yards. Jones got a bigger workload with Jamaal Williams (handcuff only) sidelined due to his concussion, and rewarded owners with a monster game. Williams returns this week, so Jones may lose a few touches, but remains a solid RB1 due to his strong O-Line, elite defense, and usage in the red zone. Williams can only be viewed as a handcuff for Jones owners, and shouldn’t be in any lineups, outside of extremely deep leagues, in his first game back from injury.
Score Prediction: Packers 21, Lions 17
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

2 Minute Rundown: Denver Broncos (2019 AFC West NFL Handicapping Preview) Broncos vs. Chargers Week 5 Game Preview Free NFL Predictions & Betting Odds Broncos vs Chargers Predictions and Odds (Monday, September 11) Week 6 Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers NFL Betting Preview Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers NFL Pick and Prediction 12/1/19 Week 13 NFL Betting Tips

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Odds - Sunday December 1 2019. Live betting odds and lines, betting trends, against the spread and over/under trends, injury reports and matchup stats for bettors. Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Odds - Sunday October 6 2019. Live betting odds and lines, betting trends, against the spread and over/under trends, injury reports and matchup stats for bettors. Chargers vs. Broncos: Betting odds, preview, trends & pick Denver has been dominant at home but the Chargers have been tough at Denver and tough in this role as road underdogs. See the Broncos vs ... Week 5 Denver Broncos (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs Los Angeles Chargers (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS). LAC -5. Sunday, October 6 at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson California. Find the best moneyline odds, spread, and total; also get odds history, betting percentages, SBD's predicted score, team betting trends, and stat comparisons. The Denver Broncos (3-8) host the Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at Empower Field at Mile High Sunday of Week 13 in the NFL.Kickoff between the two AFC West rivals is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. We analyze the Chargers-Broncos odds and sports betting lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advice on this matchup.

[index] [24230] [20962] [15078] [6320] [29617] [1936] [59416] [54045] [17165] [55653]

2 Minute Rundown: Denver Broncos (2019 AFC West NFL Handicapping Preview)

Broncos and Chargers will renew their longstanding rivalry when they meet for the first of two regular season games on Thursday night. ... Game Preview & Betting Trends - Duration: 1:22. Ava's ... Chiefs vs Chargers Predictions [11-18-2019] Kansas City vs Los Angeles (Monday Night Football Picks) - Duration: 2:46. Vernon Croy Free Sports Picks and Predictions 1,748 views 2:46 Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos: Direct from Las Vegas, WagerTalk.com TV host Marco D’Angelo (@MarcoInVegas), Ralph Michaels (@CalSportsLV) and Bryan Leonard (@BLeonardSports) breakdown ... Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers NFL Pick and Prediction 12/1/19 Week 13 NFL Betting Tips The San Diego Chargers visit the Denver Broncos in Week 13 Sunday NFL action. Jimmy The Bag and Donnie RightSide preview the week 5 matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. Catch their betting predictions and expert picks on this game.

https://forex-portugal.binancecryptocurrencyexchanges.trade