EU Referendum: Why is Jeremy Corbyn Backing Goldman Sachs ...
EU Referendum: Why is Jeremy Corbyn Backing Goldman Sachs ...
Bankers spend BILLIONS betting on EU Referendum after ...
Goldman Sachs hires former EU president Barroso after ...
Brexit quandary means post-election sterling surge could ...
Official pro-European Union campaign is part-funded by ...
Brexit Remain Backers
Here we go with the rolling hatchet job on who funded the Brexit referendum campaigns. It's very strange that a lot of people funded £7,508.50 exactly. This must be some kind of insider joke, it's not a donation threshold. The only recommendations for businesses to support are these:
Gambling, climate change, and invetment banking are probably not what you came looking for, but that's all I've got. Also Sainsbury. I thought that I would be able to make a long list of consumer products that Remainers could support. How naive I was! I'm feeling salty this morning so I'm going be rude about some of these people. I haven't filtered any of these donors out, so the post is getting long. Remain backers had a couple of options on where to throw their money - the official Tory campaign, Conservatives In, or to Britain Stronger In Europe which was not aligned with any political party. Why 2 different campaigns? David Cameron thought that forming Conservatives In would bring the party closer together. He is lack of judgement is now well known. Conservatives In is essentailly a list of people who wanted to brown nose David Cameron and George Osborne. No large corporations funded Conservatives In, they are all private donations. Some money did come from corporate vehicles, but only from businesses that are 100% owned or controlled by one individual.
Bar & Kitchen Ltd. £25k. The shareholder is Clive Royston Watson, who co-founded The Capital Pub Company, which is now owned by Green King - no point in drinking there, leaver or remainer, because the beer is minging.
Alexia Florman £32k. Her husband used to be Tory Treasurer
Gary Wilson £25k. Endless LLP - You can support these businesses: Theo Fennell Jewellers; Sewtec Automation; Bright Blue Foods (that sounds really unappetising!)
Langley Holdings Plc £50k http://www.langleyholdings.com/en-GB . This business is Anthony Langley, a billionaire who owns European engineering businsses: Manroland Sheetfed GmbH; Piller; ARO; Claudius Peters
Lorraine Spencer £15k- wife of former Tory Party treasurer Michael Spencer.
Michael Tory £10k. Ondra LLP. Yes that is his name.
Andrew Williams £10k. he needs to get a new unique name to make my search easier
Jonathan Wolf. £10k he's at this place https://project-sapiens.com/ " We combine science, large scale data and machine learning to tell you what to eat". He needs help with his marketing, I think he must have used Charlton Heston as an adviser - "Soylent Green is people!!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UPDUpjkHg0
Next up are the large corporations that are not controlled by one individual. They all opted to put their money into Britain Stronger In Europe and avoided Conservative In.
Airbus SAS - £7.5k. I thought that one of the largest European companies would have greater interest in Remain. What this tiny donation means is that Airbus / EADS is not particularly worried about Brexit. Why not? Because it makes weapons - they will always be able to flow freely across borders, and are never subject to import duties. £7.5k is a pitiful amount compared to the $12.5 billion in arms sales it did in 2016.
Bloomberg tradebook europe £250k. Bloomberg is unusual because it is a regular donor to the 3 main historic parties: lib dems, conservatives, and labour. That is a good approach for a responsible corporation. SNP would probably disagree.
Canary Wharf Group - £35k. Owns land in Canary Wharf.
Citigroup Partners - £250k
Commercial Estates Group (CEG) is a London-based property company, £10k
That list was obviously dominated by US giants. I don't have a problem with donations from any business that operates in the UK, but it is a bit concerning that there are no UK businesses that felt the need to participate in this. It's clear that Brexit could hurt a lot of UK businesses. Company directors do have a legal duty to avoid losing money for shareholders, so trying to stay in the EU should have been a no brainer. I can only conclude from this that US Corporations are better corporate citizens and have better management than any UK business. https://sunlightfoundation.com/2016/06/22/u-s-financial-firms-spent-almost-3-million-against-brexit/ Up next is the list of individuals who put their own money into Remain, without trying to get a peerage or honour from David Cameron. You might expect a random grouping of different people here, but there are some that I'll group together. First, people who work for the Vampire Squid! Yes that's right, Goldman Sachs employees have the courage to do what they think is right. You may be surprised by this, but I wasn't because Goldmans make a big effort not to recruit idiots or wankers. I have genuinely liked every person I have ever met who worked at Goldmans - cf Deutsche Bank. I've included people who have moved on from Goldmans, because their souls stays behind when they leave
Charles Manby, £10k
Glean Earle £50k. ex goldman europe coo
Karen Cook. chairman at goldman sachs. £15k
Ewan Kirk - £110k. Ex Goldmanite, Founded Cantab Capital Partners
Michael Plantevin Bain Capital MD. £10k
Patrick Drayton £15k. His wife is chair of Goldman Investment Banking division https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Cook_(banker)) . Let's pretend she was never a director of Tesco, especially not during the false accounting era which you may expect a Goldmanite to have noticed.
PLLG £25k. http://www.pllglimited.com/ daniel richardson. occupation listed as book keeper. i can't make sense of this at all. company only makes 20k a year in profit, and giving it all to Remain is a bit weird. PL is defo an acronym for Peter Levine (former name of company was Peter Levine and Co)
Richard Reed £7.5k. co-founded innocent drinks, now sold.
Roland Rudd - £33k. Amber Rudd's brother. Read his wiki if you want to see what a professional PR person thinks of themself "He does not claim particular sporting ability...perhaps a lazy Christian" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_Rudd . He was one of the trustees of the garden bridge project, so is clearly a complete moron - hint - taxpayers want their £37m back! The point of having trustees is for them to put their balls on the line, which he clearly didn't. His wife makes high end women's clothing, he's just loaded with nothing to do. https://www.sophiehale.com/about-sophie
Samia Murgian-Hedger £100k. real estate developer
Bruno Schroder £50k - part of the Schroder banking dynasty
Sir Simon Robertson. deputy chairman of HSBC. £50k. Fun fact - his knighthood in June 2010 came just one month after the Tories took office. I'm looking at Brexit so not covering this, but you can see his history of conservative donations here. http://powerbase.info/index.php/Simon_Robertson. i estimate the price of a knighthood is around £300k based on his donation history.
The Tower Limited Company. £500k. This is the corporate entity that owns the Nat West Tower / Tower 42 in London. Nathan Kirsh, South African billionaire.
Waren Fingold, £10k. Vodafone M&A veteran. Vodafone did some incredible deals during dot com bubble, this guy is a legend.
This was going to be my final word on referendum donations, but I think I need one more post to compare and contrast Leave and Remain backers. Also a look at which MPs Airbus gives money to will be interesting, and how many of them are in the ERG. Edit: if any of this is wrong, lert me know in the comments and I'll update the post
London retains global finance throne amid Brexit chaos
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 84%. (I'm a bot)
LONDON - From the pinnacle of the City of London's largest skyscraper, Stuart Lipton is wagering a $1.2 billion bet that the British capital remains a master of the international financial universe no matter what happens with Brexit. The cataclysmic warnings during the 2016 referendum that London would lose its financial throne if it voted to leave the European Union have, so far, been proven wrong. The city's standing ensures the United Kingdom keeps one of its last big chips at the top table of world politics just as it splits from the EU. It also means EU companies will still come to London to raise finance outside the bloc after Brexit, a fact not lost on Wall Street heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. A global hub for trading, lending and investing, London is the largest net exporter of financial services in the world, with the EU accounting for a quarter of the business. Some key activities have moved out of London ahead of Brexit. Rolet, who said in the aftermath of the referendum that half of all finance jobs in London may disappear if derivatives clearing left the capital, said it was too early to assess the implications of Brexit.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Topkeywords: LONDON#1Bank#2financial#3Brexit#4year#5 Post found in /worldnews. NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 84%. (I'm a bot)
LONDON - From the pinnacle of the City of London's largest skyscraper, Stuart Lipton is wagering a $1.2 billion bet that the British capital remains a master of the international financial universe no matter what happens with Brexit. The cataclysmic warnings during the 2016 referendum that London would lose its financial throne if it voted to leave the European Union have, so far, been proven wrong. The city's standing ensures the United Kingdom keeps one of its last big chips at the top table of world politics just as it splits from the EU. It also means EU companies will still come to London to raise finance outside the bloc after Brexit, a fact not lost on Wall Street heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. A global hub for trading, lending and investing, London is the largest net exporter of financial services in the world, with the EU accounting for a quarter of the business. Some key activities have moved out of London ahead of Brexit. Rolet, who said in the aftermath of the referendum that half of all finance jobs in London may disappear if derivatives clearing left the capital, said it was too early to assess the implications of Brexit.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Topkeywords: LONDON#1Bank#2financial#3Brexit#4year#5 Post found in /The_Farage and /worldnews. NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
4837 points: Golemfrost's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
2458 points: FakeDjinn's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
2351 points: SpookyLlama's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
2107 points: two_10's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
2047 points: FakeDjinn's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
1109 points: Hazzman's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
983 points: PeacekeeperAl's comment in Telegraph admits yesterdays story about Cambridge being forced to replace Black authors with white ones was false.
952 points: drawkcabog's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
798 points: BaronVSS's comment in Home secretary Amber Rudd tells Conservative fringe "I don't need to understand how encryption works to want to deny its use to criminals."
752 points: Esprit-de-lescali's comment in Someone just handed Theresa May a P45 during her speech.
Why Non-Germans Should Support Martin Schulz for the German Chancellorship.
Many people may think it weird of me that I would attach myself to German politics. I'm an American, after all. Outside of the malignant boredom of waiting to hear if I am accepted into grad school, another element is the state of the world in this era of rising nationalism and uncertainty. In this era, a question throbs in my head: What if the United States stops being a Superpower? I cannot predict whether or not the United States will lose its position as the world superpower. As of current, we still have a strong economy, a strong military, and vast diplomatic relations with the world at large. Yet, the chance to lose this status is more possible now than it had been a mere two years ago. The president-elect of the United States is Donald Trump. Unless something happens, on January 20th of 2017, Donald Trump will become the President of the United States of America. Now, my initial feelings is this doesn't fare well for us and for the rest of the world. However, he is my president and I am willing to give him a chance so long as he gives my fellow American citizens of all shapes and sizes a chance. He may turn out to be a standard president. He may even turn out to be a good president. If that's the case, I relish the opportunity to be incorrect about my assumptions. I will be the first one to throw up my hands and gladly join everyone in that bright future. I don't care if I'm right, I care about unity and prosperity. But, what if it doesn't? What if the rampant speculation turns out to be true? No matter your political stripes, you have no way of predicting the future. All you can do is research and cast your dice in the right direction. So, let us think for a moment. What if he is a bad president? What if he does something that threatens the United States current global hegemony? Indeed, what if the United States stops being a global superpower? It means that the United States may have to curtail to other people's interests. It might not be immediate or obvious, but it could potentially happen. The possibility does exist. Possibility is why people buy house insurance, it's why we save money in the bank, and it's why people go to trade schools and universities. We are hedging our bets and praying things will be different. Sometimes nothing changes, but sometimes it does. So, even if some don't believe it, we may be open to the very idea. Well, that leaves a range of potential powers in our wake. So, the question is, who could end up being Earth's Next Superpower? To answer this question, let us look at the BRICS. These are nations determined by Goldman Sachs back in 2001 to be powerful developing industrial nations. Despite all that has happened in fifteen years, their economic development hasn't changed much. We will look at them one by one. Brazil is a contender. With its vast resources, it has promise. Being a democracy is a nice plus, too. However, that democracy has been facing significant trouble, with allegations of corruption around every corner. It also has high rates of income inequality, which doesn't fare well for domestic stability. It may clear up and if it does I welcome it, but the likelihood of a Brazilian led future is low. India and South Africa are other members of BRICS and it too has the same pluses and negatives as Brazil---including vast income inequality and political corruption. This leaves the two most obvious contenders, China and Russia. While the other three may be free democracies, these two are dictatorships, willing to suppress political dissension of their own people to adhere to the controlling oligarchs. Now, if the Chinese and the Russians do not care about the comfort and sanity of their own people, what makes you or anyone else think that they are willing to care about the well being of the average Norwegian, Canadian, Brazilian, Mexican, Israeli, American, and anyone that doesn't live in the upper crust of Russian and Chinese society? Our own capitalists and political elite can be bad, yes, but none of them are in control of a massive police state. We proclaim that we live in a shithole controlled by the powers that be, but the Chinese and the Russians are living it for real, day to day. If they have the money to do so, you can bet your ass they're going to export totalitarianism. To reiterate, If the United States stops being a superpower, the former Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China may become the new global boss. The thought of either of those nations being the leader of the world is frightening to me and it should be to you, too. Yet, what the BRICS fail to mention is that there is one, additional alternative. The European Union. Some of you may be skeptical, but we need to look at the cold hard facts. If counted as a single nation, the EU would have the second largest economy in the world, the third largest military, the world's second currency reserve and the third largest population. Now, for many Europeans hearing about this, that's old news, but for you many others, that's something else. I'm not going to pretend the EU doesn't have problems. Even the most casual observer of international news has heard about the problems coming out of Greece, Italy, and Spain. We know the British voted to leave. Yet, the most casual observer also knows these problems are not nearly as bad when you stack it up with the democratic parts of the BRICS. Even if there was no problems, they would never reach the level that the EU currently has for some time. As for Russia and China, well, an EU-led future would look a hell of a lot brighter than one led by them. So, why care about the 2017 Germany Election? Germany has one of the strongest economies in the EU. Arguably, they're the strongest pillar in the whole organization. If Alternative fur Deutchland (aka the AfD, aka Germany's Not-Nazi, Nazi Party) had their way, that pillar gets knocked out. That means no more EU and that may mean a world led by Russia or China. Why Martin Schulz? Martin Schulz was the President of the European Union. He knows it inside and out. He knows its strengths and weaknesses. Putting him in the chancellorship means he has control over German banking policy, which is extremely important for the whole of the EU. The stronger the EU is, the less of a chance the world will be controlled by dictators. The current leader of the Social Democratic Party (think Bernie-crats) is Sigmar Gabriel. He looks like a sad potato. Schulz will need to push the sad potato aside to become the leader of the SPD. The current chancellor of Germany is Angela Merkel. Now, I have no serious issues with Merkel, per se, but part of the problem of the EU's current weakness does come from how they are currently handling their banks, which Merkel is in control of. If she continues to handle the banks the way she is now, it'll may mean the EU will only get weaker and potentially trigger more Brexits. She'll be running for re-election for the CDU, the Christian Democratic Union (think a moderate conservative). We also have to contend with the AfD as well. They probably won't grab the Chancellorship, but after Brexit, Trump, and fucking Harambe, we really shouldn't discount anything. Black is east, west is white, etc. Even if they don't win, if they get high enough numbers, it means they'll force the CDU further to the right. UKIP (the Brits' alt-right) forced the Tories (the Brits' conservatives) further right, which forced the Brexit referendum. The AfD could do much of the same. Or worse. So, to fight the populist rise of the AfD (and thus a potentially EU-less future), Germany needs a counter-populist movement. For Germans, it means that they should get into politics. Volunteer. Do phone banks. Slap each other's hams. Whatever it is you do in Germany to get people involved and to persuade others to your side. For both the Germans and everyone else, it means memes. Memes raise awareness. It builds brand recognition and that spreads via word-of-mouth. It may even get in the news. Even if it doesn't, the ideas it presents will at least get in the news. Its why American news outlets talked about Pepe. Its how fake news outlets persuaded some Americans for Donald Trump. Doing something as stupid as upvoting or making a goofy picture does make a difference. It's a small one and if you are German, you should try to do more, but it does have an effect. That's why you, the humble non-German Redditor, must help Schulz, or at least the SPD, win. An SPD majority means the AfD has no influence over a CDU majority. An SPD majority means better banking policy in Germany, which means a stronger EU, which means that if and when the United States loses its superpower status, someone other than the former Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China won't come in and replace them. If I am wrong about my rationale here, please correct me in the comments below. Danke und MEGA! KEINE BREMSEN! Edit: Typo.
4837 points: Golemfrost's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
2458 points: FakeDjinn's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
2351 points: SpookyLlama's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
2107 points: two_10's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
2047 points: FakeDjinn's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
1109 points: Hazzman's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
983 points: PeacekeeperAl's comment in Telegraph admits yesterdays story about Cambridge being forced to replace Black authors with white ones was false.
952 points: drawkcabog's comment in Terrorism deaths by year in the UK
798 points: BaronVSS's comment in Home secretary Amber Rudd tells Conservative fringe "I don't need to understand how encryption works to want to deny its use to criminals."
752 points: Esprit-de-lescali's comment in Someone just handed Theresa May a P45 during her speech.
Everything Is Soaring As Trump Makes Buying Stuff Great Again
Who would have thought - as recently as two days ago - that a Trump presidency is the best thing for global risk? Certainly not Wall Street experts, all of whom warned of drops as big as 5% should Trump be elected. And yet, the global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all jumping (Nikkei was up a whopping 6.7% after losing 4.6% the day before) after the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism that his plans for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy. Commodity metals soared with copper surging 4.5% to $5,658.50 a metric ton, the biggest gain since May 2013, while zinc advanced 2.1% and nickel added 2%. Gold climbed on speculation whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. The euphoria is largely due to the market's hopes of a burst in fiscal stimulus, aka much more debt, which while self-defeating in the long run, is providing a major boost to risk assets for the short-run, as it puts QE potentially back in the picture: after all _someone will be needed to monetize the US budget deficit_which is expected to once again soar under president Trump. As Citi strategists note today, "The outcome of the U.S. election leaves the policy and macroeconomic outlook in the U.S. and globally with major uncertainties. Acknowledging these major uncertainties, we expect the new administration to pursue some deregulation, fiscal expansion, and reassess the costs and benefits of free trade. The combination of policies could be inflationary, quicken the path of Fed hikes and strengthen the dollar." Indeed, as Bloomberg puts it, Donald Trump’s unlikely rise to power is providing a shot in the arm for global financial markets, with stocks and commodities rallying on optimism that his fiscal-stimulus plans will boost the global economy. European equities joined a global rally as they headed for their biggest four-day jump since July. Banks surged on prospects of lighter regulation for their U.S. operations and higher lending rates, and miners gained on increased metals prices. Copper rose the most in more than three years on Trump’s intention to expand infrastructure spending. Currencies of most commodity-producing nations advanced, while Bloomberg’s dollar index reversed losses. Government bonds in Europe and Asia slid as the inflation outlook lifted, while corporate-debt sales resumed in Europe as markets stabilized. Those who saw S&P futures trade limit down on Wednesday morning will likely be stunned by the amazing U-turn in global markets since the shock win for Trump triggered a knee-jerk selloff in equities and rush into haven assets. European shares Wednesday staged their biggest turnaround since March as investors took comfort in his acceptance speech. They are starting to look beyond Trump’s campaign rhetoric, focusing instead on his promises to cut taxes and at least double Hilary Clinton’s estimated $275 billion, five-year plan for roads, airports and bridges. The only asset conspicuously not participating in the global ramp was oil, which was little changed after three days of gains. The IEA said prices may retreat amid “relentless global supply growth” unless the OPEC enacts significant output cuts. West Texas Intermediate fell less than 0.1 percent to $45.25 a barrel and Brent was 0.8 percent higher at $46.71. “It’s a relief rally of the certainty of the outcome of the election and after the conciliatory tone that Trump took,” said Nick Skiming, a fund manager at Jersey, Channel Islands-based Ashburton Ltd. His firm oversees $10 billion. “We know from Trump’s policies that he wants to reduce taxes and embark on fiscal spending and if he gets those approved, that will be expansionary for the U.S. economy in the short term.” Europe's Stoxx 600 Index gained 1% as of 10:55 a.m. London time, with lenders reaching their highest levels since March. UBS Group AG soared 7.6%, set for its biggest surge since 2012. Among Trump’s policies were a pledge to repeal the Dodd-Frank Act’s strict capital requirements on banks and a proposed temporary moratorium on new financial regulations. Gains in commodities helped send a gauge of miners to its highest since June. French media company Vivendi SA jumped 10 percent, and Germany’s Siemens AG rose 4.7 percent after they posted profit that beat projections. S&P 500 Index futures climbed 0.7 percent, indicating U.S. equities will extend their advance into a fourth day. Billionaire Carl Icahn said he left President-elect Trump’s victory party to bet about $1 billion on U.S. equities. The investor said that the economy still faces challenges but Trump will be “a positive, not a negative” for the country. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.7 percent, the most since March. Japan’s Topix index jumped 5.8 percent, after sinking 4.6 percent in the last session, and Australia’s benchmark rallied by the most in five years. In Hong Kong, Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s second-largest producer by output, rose 14 percent. Russian aluminum maker United Co. Rusal Plc jumped by the most on record. While the focus will remain on the unfolding political landscape, investors may also look to data on initial jobless claims and earnings from companies including Macy’s Inc. and Ralph Lauren Corp. for indications of the health of the world’s biggest economy. But while stocks soared, it was a different story in bond markets: European debt fell after about $337 billion was wiped off bond markets on Wednesday as Trump’s election sparked concern that his plan to boost economic growth will lead to a surge in inflation. The yield on German 10-year bonds climbed seven basis points to to 0.27 percent, while that on similar-maturity U.K. gilts added seven basis points to 1.33 percent. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose two basis points to 2.07 percent. The U.S. is selling $15 billion of 30-year Treasuries at an auction on Thursday. Bonds of that maturity led Wednesday’s selloff, with yields climbing 23 basis points. “Trumpeconomics implies a likely faster pace of Fed rate hikes next year,” said Robert Rennie, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “It is clear that this wave of populist vote has reflected, in part, dislike of tight fiscal, easy monetary policy. If we are now seeing a shift in the U.S., then that means markets will have to reprice this.” Odds for a Fed interest-rate hike in December climbed to 88 percent, based on U.S. overnight indexed swaps that trade 24 hours a day, after plunging below 50 percent while the outcome of the election unfolded. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said Wednesday that the argument for gradual interest-rate increases “still makes sense to me.” Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
European equities follow suit from their US and Asian counterparts to trade higher across the board with financials and materials leading the way
The US 10yr has tipped 2%, and this has added fresh fuel to the USD/JPY rise which has now pushed through 106.00
Looking ahead, highlights include US weekly jobless data as well as comments from Fed's Williams and Bullard, ECB's Constancio and Mersch and BoE's Haldane
Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures up 0.7% to 2175
Stoxx 600 up 1.1% to 344
FTSE 100 up 1% to 6980
DAX up 1.1% to 10764
German 10Yr yield up 5bps to 0.25%
Italian 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.79%
Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.31%
S&PGSCI Index up 0.9% to 359.9
MSCI Asia Pacific up 2.7% to 137
Nikkei 225 up 6.7% to 17344
Hang Seng up 1.9% to 22839
Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3171
S&P/ASX 200 up 3.3% to 5329
US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.04%
Dollar Index up 0.4% to 98.9
WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $45.11
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $46.51
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,280
Silver spot up 1.3% to $18.72
Global Headline News
Trump Starts New Political Era as Republicans Claim Mandate: Ryan says Republican unity will drive new agenda for nation
Investors Lose $337b as Bonds Whipsawed on Trump Victory: Trump victory means bigger chance of Fed hike, Westpac says
Stock Forecasters No Better Than Pollsters in Figuring Out Trump: rather than plunge, American equities stage an epic turnaround
Iranian Nuclear Deal Faces New Twist With Trump Win
Oil Output Surge Piles Pressure on OPEC as IEA Warns on Price: market faces ‘relentless’ supply growth as non-OPEC recovers
AstraZeneca Sales Miss Estimates on Slower Growth in New Drugs: without tax benefit, profit was 96 cents vs. 98-cent estimate
Vivendi Soars After Profit Beats Estimates With Music Strength: adjusted net income almost doubled in 3Q
Blackstone, KKR Said to Ready Bid Financing for Valeant’s iNova: sale may fetch about A$1b, according to people familiar
Goldman Sachs Names 84 New Partners, Most Since 2010 Class: traders make up largest group, followed by investment bankers
VW Accused of Concealing Emissions Cheating in Audi Gas Cars: Owners of 100,000 Audi vehicles file class-action lawsuit
Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where the fallout from the 2016 Presidential Election results is still dictating the state of play in markets. Asian indices traded higher across the board benefiting from the bullish close on wall Street with the three majors closing the session at highs and in the Dow's case ATH's. The Nikkei 225 (+6.7%) lead the way higher, with financials outperforming as Donald Trump is seen as more friendly to the banking sector, given his previous commentary and his record of amassing a large property portfolio through debt. The Republican 'clean sweep' of House, Senate and President has also reassured global stock markets. Japanese Finance Minister Aso said he wants to avoid FX intervention and the government will not intervene in FX except in exceptional cases. PBoC set the CNY reference at 6.7885 (Prey. 6.7832) — the weakest setting since 2010 and injected CNY 80bIn in 7y and 14y reverse repos. Asian Top News - Asian Shares Jump With Metals as Trump Reassessed; Kiwi Weakens: Stock gains led by raw-materials producers as copper jumps - McDermott Says RBNZ Worried About Kiwi, Will Cut Rates If Needed: “We have not reached the floor” on rates, assistant governor says - Mr. Yen Says Trump Victory Doesn’t Change Currency-Market Trend: Yen may strengthen to 90 per dollar within six months of Donald Trump’s election, Eisuke Sakakibara says - Tata Consultancy Says Ishaat Hussain Nominated As Chairman: Hussain shall hold office until new chairman is appointed - Modi May Reap $45 Billion Budget Boost With Anti-Graft Cash Ban: Edelweiss Securities predicts crack down on high-value currency notes will uncover 3t rupees in black money - Singapore Names Jho Low Person of Interest in 1MDB-Linked Probe: Country’s investigation into Low started in 2015 - Hyundai Merchant, Korea Line Submit Final Hanjin Asset Bids: preferred bidder to be picked on Nov. 14, court says Likewise in Europe, Donald Trump continues to dictate price action across asset classes, with equities continuing to strengthen, as was seen in the second half of yesterday's trade. European bourses all trade higher this morning by over 1%, with material and financials leading the way higher benefitting from speculation regarding what a Trump presidency could entail, while utilities underperform in the wake of earnings reports from Engie and National Grid. Elsewhere, fixed income markets have seen European paper follow their US counterparts, with Bunds retaking the 161.00 handle to the upside as markets calm in the wake of yesterday's volatility. Analysts at Informa note that Spanish/Italian 10 year yields have climbed 3-4bps as the Renzi/EU row continues to escalate, amidst more animosity vs EC in campaigning ahead of the Dec 4 referendum. Top European News
Trump Victory Hands U.K.’s May Security Leverage in Brexit Talks: British military capability may be in more demand in Europe
Deutsche Bank Sees Mideast Deal Revival After ‘Subdued’ 2016: regional head says low oil price will drive consolidation
Siemens Plans to Spin Off Health Unit as CEO Sharpens Focus: company has announced no timeline or scope for spinoff
Zurich Insurance 3Q Profit Soars on Lower Claims: lack of major natural disasters helps insurer boost earnings
Deutsche Telekom Earnings Rise as U.S. Business Wins Users: German carrier betting on U.S. to offset slower European sales
Aegon Jumps as Investments Help It Return to Quarterly Profit: stock rises most in more than 7 years
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In commodities, industrial metals rose as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Trump’s promise to revive American infrastructure means commodities used to build everything from airports to bridges will benefit under his presidency. Copper surged 4.5 percent to $5,658.50 a metric ton, the biggest gain since May 2013, while zinc advanced 2.1 percent and nickel added 2 percent. Gold climbed as traders speculated on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when policy makers meet next month. Bullion rose 0.2 percent to $1,279.85 an ounce and silver gained 1.4 percent. Oil was little changed after three days of gains. The International Energy Agency said prices may retreat amid “relentless global supply growth” unless the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries enacts significant output cuts. West Texas Intermediate fell less than 0.1 percent to $45.25 a barrel and Brent was 0.8 percent higher at $46.71. In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed losses to advance 0.3 percent, after rallying 1.4 percent on Wednesday. Currencies of commodity-producing nations were the best performers in foreign-exchange markets, with Australia’s dollar surging 1.3 percent and Norway’s krone appreciating 0.6 percent. Russia’s ruble strengthened 0.5 percent, leading gains among currencies in developing economies as investors speculated Trump will mend ties with Moscow. That could improve the outlook for loosening sanctions imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. “A Trump presidency is dollar bullish because Trump’s economic policies are inflationary and will force the Fed to raise the Funds rate at a faster pace than otherwise,” said Elias Haddad, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Mexico’s peso was 0.1 percent weaker after sinking 7.7 percent on Wednesday. Trump has pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and curb illegal immigration by building a wall along the U.S.’s southern border. The yuan slipped to a six-year low amid concern Chinese exports will also suffer. Trump has called China a “grand master” at currency manipulation and has threatened tariffs of up to 45 percent on imports from the Asian nation, a step that Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimated would cut Chinese shipments to the the U.S. by 25 percent in the first year. On today's calendar, one event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2.22, since March 2009. So it’ll be interesting to see how much demand there is for longer dated debt today. Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon. The Fed’s Bullard and Lacker will also speak today. US Event Calendar
8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 5, est. 260k (prior 265k)
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap To expand further on what I was discussing in yesterday's EMR after Trump and the Republican's clean electoral sweep, I must say that this is the most positive I've felt on the medium-term prospects for US growth for perhaps a decade. As a 'secular stagnationist' this is as much a relative and a nominal GDP story as it is an absolute and real GDP view but at least we'll likely to see a change in policy. Policy should now be skewed towards reflation at a fiscal level. However as a caveat the outcome is probably also potentially dangerous for growth as a Trump presidency has more risk of going spectacularly wrong than most others given his inconsistent approach to policy in the lead up to the election and his total lack of political experience. There was a great quote on Bloomberg last night from Sarah Binder - a political science professor at George Washington University - who said that "In every conversation I have about a President Trump there is an asterisk of unpredictability". This certainly rings true. There are still some doubts as to whether he has his party fully behind him although the clean sweep may mean Republicans are happy to loosen the purse strings now they are in full control (and can get the credit) regardless of any doubts over Trump. The other problem with Trump are his international views (migration, trade) and we stand by our September long-term study view that Globalisation is going to be in full retreat over the years ahead which has longer-term global growth and stability risks. The link to "An Ever Changing World" where we articulated our view of the turn in the super cycle meaning higher yields, higher inflation, more fiscal spending and less globalisation is at the end of today's piece. Back to Trump, he also has non-economic policies that could be divisive if he follows through on his campaign rhetoric. So a leap into the unknown in some respects. However if your view has been that constant monetary easing without support from fiscal policy was becoming counterproductive at a global level, then you have to take Trump and the Republicans seriously whatever your view(s) on him/them. I would stress that Trump will likely need the Fed over the years ahead though and he's not been their biggest fan. A persistent unfunded fiscal deficit could push yields up to levels that the debt ladened global economy would find overly negative. For expansionary fiscal policy to work in a world of heavy debt I do think you need a central bank willing or forced to buy government bonds. If not what's the incentive for the bond market to buy into an unfunded reflation boost. So we could see a strange situation in 2017 where the US is pursuing big expansionary fiscal policy but with no QE whereas Europe will continue to do big QE but without notable fiscal expansion. So yesterday's 20.2bp sell-off in 10 year Treasuries (a stunning 34.6bps from the Asian session lows) is one to watch and could be something the Republican's need to bare in mind if they go for broke on stimulus. What the Fed looks like in 18 months is also a big question. The Republicans and Trump have been very keen to clip their wings and the spectre of them becoming less independent - perhaps after Yellen's term ends in 2018 - must surely be a possibility. Anyway we are writing our 2017 outlook at the moment and obviously this result is making us stress test our views for the next year or so. Any thoughts welcome from our readers on what this victory means. We reserve the right to change our mind on things by the time the outlook is out but this certainly shakes things up for 2017! We discussed yesterday that we thought the result would initially bring risk-off followed by a reversal as the positive fiscal prospects would come into view. I'm not sure we thought such a turnaround would happen in hours rather than days or weeks but the low/high range yesterday was astonishing for a number of assets. Trump's conciliatory acceptance speech was probably the main catalyst. Let’s start with the aforementioned move for Treasuries where the high-to-low move was actually an incredible 37.4bps at the 10y and which took the yield back above 2% (closing at 2.057%) for the first time since January. That daily range is the highest since August 2011 although if we look at the magnitude of the selloff in percentage terms (10.91%) then it is actually the second highest with data going back to 1966. In another eye-watering stat, yesterday’s high to low range in basis points was 20bps more than the daily high-to-low range for the whole of the month of August. Volatility at its finest. Staying with rates, the Treasury curve steepened aggressively with the 2y30y spread widening 19.5bps to 195bps with that one day move the biggest since 2011. The probability of a December Fed rate hike at one stage plummeted below 50% during Asia time before bouncing back and making an almost complete u-turn to close at 82%. In Europe the moves for sovereign bond markets, while still weaker, were slightly less spectacular. 10y Bund yields hit an intraday low of 0.090% in the early showing before closing at their highs in yield at around 0.200%. That was a 1.5bp move higher on the day, but a high-to-low range of 11bps. Over in equity markets the incredible turnaround was more evident in the US futures market given Trump fears peaked early in the Asia session. Dow futures swung in a 1,172 point range after initially plummeting 867 points before then swinging to a 305 point gain. That’s the equivalent of a 6.82% high to low range. In the cash market the Dow closed up +1.40% after being down as much as half a percent initially. The high-to-low was 2.18%. The S&P 500 closed +1.11% with a high-to-low of 2.10% but this was -5% and limit down in Asian trading. Sector wise, the prospect of looser regulation meant financials (+4.07%) and healthcare (+3.43%) were the big outperformers. In fact, the Nasdaq Biotech index rallied +8.98% for its biggest once day gain since 2008. There’s going to be huge focus on the healthcare sector now given Trump’s vocal opposition of Obamacare and our US equity strategists are calling for +20% upside for the sector. Meanwhile the VIX tumbled just over 23% and back below 15, with a high-to-low range of 33%. Over in Europe the Stoxx 600 closed +1.46%, again however with a remarkable 3.91% range. Credit was much the same. In the US CDX IG finished 1.3bps tighter on the day but in a near 6bp range. HY was even more impressive with the CDX HY spread 5bps tighter by the close but the high-to-low a spectacular 28bps. In Europe indices ended little changed with Main swinging in a 5bps range Xover swinging in a 20bp range. The other markets to highlight were commodities and currencies. Gold, having smashed through $1300/oz and trading as high as +4.73% early on, closed just +0.18% but with a range of 5.45%. WTI Oil finished +0.64% but in Dollar terms swung in a $3/bbl range. Finally in currency markets the standout was the Mexican Peso which at one stage was -13.37% weaker, before paring losses to ‘just’ -8.30%. The Swiss Franc finished -0.67% weaker with a range of a little over 3% while the Yen was -0.48% on the day in a range nearing 5%. So if that hasn’t caused your eyes to bulge just yet, then this morning we’re seeing a similar rebound across markets in Asia. The Nikkei (+5.86%) has more than recovered Wednesday’s losses while the Hang Seng (+1.92%), Shanghai Comp (+1.14%), Kospi (+1.70%) and ASX (+2.81%) have all surged back. Credit markets have made a similar turnaround while US equity index futures are little changed in the early going. In commodity markets the surge in metals has stood out with Copper, Zinc and Aluminium up between 3% and 5%. Iron ore is also above $70/tn for the first time since April. Needless to say miners have had a very strong morning. The infrastructure story is kicking in. Elsewhere the San Francisco Fed’s Williams opined overnight that a gradual rate of rate increases still makes sense, a view that is unchanged post election. Meanwhile, away from the market moves, the remaining newsflow has been largely consigned to watching the political response globally. With trade negotiations at the forefront of debate now, Canada Ambassador David MacNaughton said that Canada is willing to entertain reopening the NAFTA agreement to potential changes should the President-elect want to. The Ambassador also suggested that he expects bilateral trade between the two countries to remain strong. Meanwhile Mexico President Enrique Pena Nieto said that ‘this election opens a new chapter in relations between Mexico and the US that will imply a change, a challenge but also a big opportunity’. Unsurprisingly though it was the global populist movements that rejoiced in Trump’s victory. In France the leader of the right-wing National Front party, Marine Le Pen, said that ‘French people who hold this freedom so dearly will find an extra reason to break with a system that shackles them’. The founder of the populist 5SM in Italy also highlighted similarities between the result and movements in Italy. Austrian Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache was similarly jubilant while Russia President Putin said that ‘Russia is ready and wants to restore fully fledged relations with the US’ and that ‘this would serve the interests of the Russian and American peoples, as well as positively impacting the general climate in international affairs’. Wrapping up yesterday, it would be an understatement to say that the data played second fiddle yesterday but for completeness, in the US we learned that wholesale inventories rose a slightly less than expected +0.1% mom (vs.+0.2% expected) in September. Wholesale trade sales also rose less than expected (+0.2% mom vs. +0.5% expected) while the Atlanta Fed held their Q4 GDP forecast at 3.1% following that data. In Europe the Bank of France business sentiment reading for October was unchanged at 99. Finally in the UK the trade balance widened further in September. The European Commission also released their latest economic forecasts, cutting Euro area growth expectations to 1.5% in 2017 from the earlier 1.8% forecast. So while today’s diary does contain some economic reports, the likelihood is that markets will continue to respond to the Election result. One event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2.22, since March 2009. So it’ll be interesting to see how much demand there is for longer dated debt today. Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon. The Fed’s Bullard and Lacker will also speak today. from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/everything-soaring-trump-makes-buying-stuff-great-again via IFTTT
This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 61%.
The pound fell the most in more than a year after London Mayor , one of the UK's most popular politicians, said he'll campaign for Britain to leave the in a June referendum. "The pound is tumbling after the deal clinched by Prime Minister Cameron at the EU summit failed to alleviate fears about Brexit," said , head of Group-of-10 currency strategist at Credit Agricole SA's corporate and investment-banking unit in London. "The fact that prominent members of the Conservative Party announced they will campaign for Britain to leave the EU likely underscored investors' concerns that Brexit risks could increase from here despite the deal." The pound dropped 1.6 per cent to $1.4181 as of 8:38 a.m. in London, set for the biggest decline since Jan. 2, 2015. With traders already pushing back bets on the timing of a Bank of England interest-rate increase, the prospect of Britain leaving the world's largest single market had been causing further concern, helping push down the pound against all of its Group-of-10 peers this year. Economists at Holdings Plc, Britain's largest bank, said the make up of the UK could be called into question if the UK votes to leave the EU but or Wales want to stay. Goldman Sachs said earlier this month if Britain quits the EU the pound may fall to $1.15-$1.20 - levels last seen in 1985.
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