MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues into Red Thursday where my Chiefs open the season against the Houston Texans! Sorry there was not article yesterday I felt awful and have some kind of an ear infection and extremely dizzy. It’s like being intoxicated without drinking. Today I think I’m on the up swing as I went to the Dr. and got some steroids to help drain the fluid. Let’s jump into this main slate!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
GERRIT COLE – Only pitcher on the main slate today over 10k. Cole has been up and down this year but coming off a 27.9 DK point start vs. this same BAL team where he went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 10 strikeouts. Cole has the highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 16.8% and the next closest person is Paddack at only 12.4%. In 62 team Abs vs. Cole BAL is hitting only 0.177 with a 31% strikeout rate. BAL is “hot” rightnow ranking 4th in our L10 game power rankings but Cole is just too much for them.
SONNY GRAY – He isn’t that much cheaper than Cole so I don’t see any reason to pivot down if you have the salary to spend. He is coming off a -13.3 DK point start where STL tagged him for 6 ER in 0.2 innings. Prior to that start he had 19 and 17 DK points so I think 9600 is too much for the risk. On a positive note if you are on the Gray train he did face this Cubs team on 7/29 and put up his highest DK point performance of the year with 39.2 DK points going 6.2 innings with 0 ER and 11 strikeouts. Can he do it again? He has also faced this team for 100 Abs and they are only hitting a low .110 off him with a 32% strikeout rate. GPP only for me but his track records vs. Cubbies is impeccable!
ADBERT ALZOLAY – Here is your GPP play today. He wasn’t in my write up and I looked over him and my first thought was his price tag is way too high and he walks to many hitters. So that is perfect for a GPP play! After digging in I am intrigued on him as a play today. His last outing (I say outing because I don’t know if it was a start or out of the pen) he went 2.2 innings, gave up 2 ER and walked 5 batters. Wow that is ugly! However, prior to that he went 1.0 with 2 Ks, 5.0 with 0 ER and 6 Ks and then 2.0 with 1 ER and 1K. So we have limited innings to look at but some have been really good. He has a 2.08 ERA but his xFIP is 3.96 which is slightly better than average. His K9 rate is insane at 12.5 this year and allowing a .167 batting average. Typically, I would expect his BABIP to be really low for those stats but it is .263 so slightly lower than average but nothing crazy. Plus look at this soft matchup vs. CIN who ranks 28th in our L10 power rankings, 27th in runs per game, 28th in team batting average (.220) and 23rd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days.
KEEGAN AKIN – He has a tough matchup against a NYY team that is starting to heat up but he is priced at a low 6700 on DK so falls into our “punt” category. His last two starts were 23.8 DK points and it was facing this NYY team where he went 5.1 innings, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. The start before was 19 DK points and he went 4.1 innings, 0 ER and 6 strikeouts. Prior to that it appears he was working out of the pen. So in two starts he has 9.2 innings, 0 ER and 14 strikeouts, yes please! Allowing a 0.174 batting average and facing guys like Gary Sanchez (.122 avg), Brett Gardner (.165), Mike Ford (.139), Aaron Hicks (.209) why not? Our model actually has BAL winning this game, that might be a stretch but BAL is +230 so they only need to win a small percentage of the time.
SANDY ALCANTARA – Alcantara faces PHI today so we want to look and see if he has faced them already this year and the answer is YES! So how did he do? He went 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 7 Ks for 28 DK points. Priced at 6600 today that is pushing 5x value. I use terms of “X” value because Cole won’t be close to 5x. That would mean Cole at 10,000 (which he is slightly over 10k today) would need 10,000 x 5 = 50+ DK points. 3 of his last 4 starts have been stellar outings putting up 28, -2, 28 and 18 DK points. His BABIP of .214 is really low and that worries me that we might have a “blow up” spot soon but with 3 of his last 4 starts pushing 5x value on a shorter slate he has to be in the player pool.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
DODGERS VS. MAD BUM (25TH BULLPEN) – Poor Mad Bum getting shelled this year and that is putting it lightly. His high this year in terms of DK points is 14.4 points and that was on 7/29. His last 3 starts he put up 6.0, -7 and -7.5 DK points. In those 3 starts he has only lasted a combined 10.1 innings and gave up 14 ERs and only managed 6 Ks. LAD comes in ranking 7th in our L10 game power rankings and they have faced Mad Bum for 176 team Abs and hitting a solid .318 off him with 8 HRs. I like anyone in this lineup to plug into your other stacks. AJ Pollock is hitting .290 on the year and holds a .407 wOBA vs. LHP and vs. Mad Bum specifically he is 18 for 63 (.286) with 3 HRs. KiKi Hernandez is 25 for 50 (.500) with 4 HRs, Wow! That is insane! Hitting .500 off a pitcher through 50 Abs. Pollock is only 3900 and KiKi is only 3500. Muncy and Taylor have both struggled vs. Mad Bum hitting .182 and .130 with 10+ Abs. I like Mookie / Seager / Pollock / KiKi and then fitting in a 4th of your choice that is affordable.
MIAMI MARLINS VS. JAKE ARRIETA (30TH BULLPEN) – So I want to get at least one lineup with Cole & Sonny Gray so that means I need to find a cheap stack that has some potential. Marlins are where I’m looking today as Vegas has them projected at 4.6 runs and our model has them a 5.0 and they are DIRT CHEAP! They are a middle of the road team trying to make a move. Now let’s start looking at Jake Arrieta who has been up and down. He is coming off a terrific start of 7.0 innings, 2 ER and 7 Ks vs. a tough NYM team and he was even on the road. His start before he was -16.4 points and only lasted 1.1 innings and gave up 7 ERs with NO strikeouts. So which Jake are we going to see? Even if he has a good start the bullpen is awful with an xFIP of 4.88, whip of 1.89 and allowing a .328 batting average. Think about that! The bullpen for PHILLY is allowing a batting average of .328, that is just horrible! The H9 is also 2.24 which is one of the highest in the entire MLB. In 83 team Abs they are hitting .337 off Arrieta with a 22% strikeout rate. Corey Dickerson (3000 – crazy cheap!) is 6 for 14 off Arrieta, Matt Joyce (2100 – is that priced correct? My god that is low.) is 7 for 21 with a HR and Miguel Rojas (3400) is 5 for 14 also with a HR. Cooper (3100) is 0 for 5 but he is red hot right now with 14 and 21 DK points in his last two games and 75% of games over the last 12 days he is hitting at least 2x.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. TREVOR CAHILL (23RD BULLPEN) – I like stacking this game. Padres are #1 in our L10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game (6.7), 1st in team batting average (.305) and 2nd in OBISO and 2nd in wRC+ over the last 14 days. What makes my system so much easier is having my MLB Cheat Sheet where I can quickly see game stats and project how a game will play out. It is helpful for DFS and Sports Betting. Cahill has a 5.98 ERA and allowing a .273 batting average. He had some arm discomfort so his last two starts were only 2.2 and 3.1 innings as they are trying not to put too much strain on him. In his last 3 starts they were all vs. ARI he has 11.1 innings, 4 ERs and 14 strikeouts. Now ARI is hardly a power house team and they rank 23rd in our power ranking and as of today they are 30th in runs per game, team batting average, team OBISO and wRC+ over the last 14 days. Padres are an entirely new animal he will have to face!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS. CHRIS PADDACK (12TH BULLPEN) – Paddack is a great pitcher and ended last year with a 3.33 ERA and allowing a .204 batting average in 140.2 innings. Awesome! However, this year is a different story as he sits with a 4.75 ERA and allowing a .270 batting average. His xFIP indicates his ERA should be closer to 3.71. He is up and down in his starts coming off a 4.2 inning, 4 ER outing u/OAK. Prior to that start he hd a solid 29.9 DK point start @ COL of all places and went 6.0 innings, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. His 3 prior starts to that he allowed 6, 1 and 6 ERs. Our model has the Padres projected at 6.2 runs and Giants at 6.0 runs. Stack the game, stack the Padres, stack the Giants and let’s have some fun!
SPORTS BETTING SECTION:
I use my DFS Cheat Sheets to find sports betting picks and plays. I usually won’t give you a direct play as I want you to decide if you want to bet the money line, run line or parlay it with something else. I’ll give you the games that jump out at me and the reasoning behind it. We have been on fire this year hitting a +600 two team parlay on Saturday with Nationals +250 and over 9.5. We followed that up with a 4-0 day. Last night I didn’t have time to write anything up but posted the “over” that I liked and it won. I actually parlayed two overs with Padres RL and Dodgers RL and also hit the parlay. LAD was tied 4-4 and then scored 2 in the 10th for a cover and Padres squeaked by with a 2 run win. It was a good night when I felt like crap. Let’s look at what I have on tap for today!
GIANTS / PADRES OVER 9.0 RUNS – Vegas has this game at 9.0 runs and our model has this at 6.2 vs. 6.0 runs for a 12.2 run total. I LIKE IT! If this game is 4-4 then you are getting a “push” at worst. These teams rank #1 and #2 in our L10 game power rankings so we are going to have some offensive firepower tonight. Padres are 2nd in runs per game, 1st in team batting average, 2nd in OBISO and 2nd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days. Giants are 4th in runs per game, 2nd in team batting average, 2nd in OBSIO and also 2nd for wRC+. Both teams how lower than average team K rates at 22% and 19%. Padres faced Trevor Cahill who owns a 5.98 ERA and allowing a .273 batting average to opponent hitters. When he gets shelled then we get to tee off on the 23rd ranked bullpen with an xFIP of 5.45! My god that is horrible. Giants get to face Chris Paddack and the reason this line is 9 and not 9.5 or 10 is because of Paddack. Giants are red hot right now so I don’t expect them to suddenly stop hitting and get shut down. Paddack was a rock star last year but this year holds a 4.75 ERA with a 3.71 xFIP and allowing a .270 batting average. In 43 team Abs by the Giants against Paddack they are hitting .279 with 2 HRs. Paddack is coming off a start where he gave up 4 ER in 4.2 innings but prior to that start he had a stellar outing in COL going 6.0 with 0 ER and 8 Ks. Then his prior 3 starts he gave up 6, 1 and 6 ERs. I like the OVER here. I don’t mind a small play with Giants money line +180 parlayed with the over. If the Giants win this game WILL GET OVER the total. I don’t see value in laying -185 on the Padres vs. a team that is 8-2 in their last 10 games and 15-5 in their last 20 games and running hot. I just hope both teams score a shit ton of runs and I can’t stop watching in the 5th inning because the game is 5-5.
DODGERS -200 OVER ARIZONA – This one is the usual play here as the Dodgers are a much better team as they rank 7th in our L10 game power rankings and hold the #1 bullpen. Facing an ARI team that is giving up on the year with a 15-29 record, lost 5 straight and 1-9 in their last 10 games. If you read the DFS portion you’ll know that Mad Bum has been getting shelled giving up 2, 6 and 7 ER in his last 2 starts and those only combined for 10.1 innings. Dodgers are 9-2 vs. LHP on the year. Even after Mad Bum is out ARI holds the 25th ranked bullpen with an xFIP over 5.00, do we really need to write anymore on this? Dustin May is decent with an ERA of 2.88 and allowing a .232 batting average but either way LAD can lock the game down with the bullpen. I’ll likely lean run line for a straight play as I don’t bet game -200 straight up.
BALTIMORE +230 over NYY – First hear me out because people are going flip when they see that I’m making a play against their NYY. With +230 odds you only need this game to win a small percentage of the time. NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 games and 6-14 in their last 20 games. BAL isn’t a powerhouse but they just beat COLE last week with a score of 6-1. They loss to the NYM last time out 7-6 in a tight game and their prior 4 games they won beating NYM 11-2, NYY 5-1, NYY again 6-1 and NYY 6-3. They beat Tanaka and Cole in two of those. NYY won against TOR 7-2 but prior to that they have only scored 1, 7, 1 and 1 runs. You don’t have to bet this straight up at +230 but I’d mix the +230 into a small parlay and hope to get lucky. I will point out that NYY are 8-14 on the road but they return home where they hold a 14-7 record. BAL ranks 4th in our L10 game power rankings and NYY are 27th. I’m sure not going to lay -260 on NYY right now.
MIAMI +100 OVER PHILLY – Our model has this game as MIA winning 5.0 vs 4.7. So we have this as a close game but with Miami pulling it out. MIA ranks 18th and PHI 15th in our L10 game power rankings. Philly has been a hotter team but the bottom of the lineup is rough. This is going to come down to pitching because the bullpens are garbage ranking 28th for MIA and 30th for PHI. Jake Arrieta is coming off a great start of 7.0 innings with only 2 ER and 7 Ks but his prior start he only lasted 1.1 innings with 7 ERs and 0 strikeouts, so which Arrieta are we going to see? If it’s the ladder MIA could blow the doors off this game early! I will point out that Corey Dickerson is 6 for 14 off Arrieta and Matt Joyce 7 for 21 and Miguel Rojas 5 for 14. In 83 team Abs they are hitting .337 off Arrieta. Sandy Alcantara is in a much better spot in my opinion. 2 starts ago he got roughed up a little giving up 5 ER to Tampa Bay in 4.0 innings but his last start and two prior were great. He is coming off 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 8 strikeouts u/TB so he got his redemption. His 3rd and 4th recent tarts were a combined 11.2 innings, 2 ER and 11 strikeouts. He also just faced PHI on the road on 7/24 and went 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 7 strikeouts.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

MLB Bets from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I provide the breakdown and you decide if you want to parlay the games, bet them money line, run line, etc. Saturday we hit a nice +600 parlay with Nationals +250 and over 9.5 then followed that up with a 4-0 day. Yesterday, we got the Padres but it was a tight game so not proud of it, Braves blew the leading bringing in a RP with an ERA over 7 and they still had several chance to win and couldn’t get it done. Cleveland easily won as expected. We had Houston moneyline parlayed with over 9 for a +330 parlay but due to the last minute pitching change we got a “no action” in our book and it was refunded. I always look for the solid games to bet and then sprinkle out some 3-5 team parlays to make the night exciting.
GAMES TO CONSIDER BETTING:
CLEVELAND (-210) OVER KC – I like Junis as a pitcher for my hometown Royals and he hasn’t given up more then 2 ER in his last 3 starts but he also hasn’t went more than 4.2 innings. His xFIP is 5.32 and he is allowing a .292 batting average. Now the reason that is key is because his BABIP is .308 so right in line with the league average (per Fangraphs). If his BABIP was .400 I would tell you that he is “unlucky” and regression is coming but allowing a .292 with average BABIP that is the kind of year he is having. Bullpen for KC ranks 22nd and they are allowing a .257 average on it’s own. CLE is 4th in our L10 game power rankings, and scoring around 5.0 runs per game over the last two weeks. McKenzie is holding onto a strong 1.69 ERA through 3 starts and just faced KC in KC and went 6.0 innings, 3 hits, 0 ER and 6 strikeouts. So far this year in those 3 starts he has 16.0 innings, 3 ERs and 19 strikeouts. So after McKenzie tosses his 5-6 innings of work they gave to face the #3 bullpen in the league that is allowing a low .212 batting average, 0.71 H9 and 1.07 whip. I also want to add in that CLE has faced Junis as a team for 120 Abs and they are hitting a whopping .375 off him with low 13% strikeout rate. Lindor is 17 for 34 with 4 HRs off Junis. CLE is 14-6 in their last 20 games and KC is 5-15. Indians for the win!
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-125) over PIT – I can’t figure out why this line so low. Yes, PIT is better at home with a wRC+ jumping from 57.3 on the road to 85.2 but that is still horrible and below the 100 average mark. White Sox have a wRC+ of 113.8 on the road and 107.5 vs. RHP. White Sox also have the better bullpen ranking 6th vs. the 19th of PIT. CHW are scoring 6.0 runs per game vs. 3.8 of PIT over the last 14 days, team batting average .277 vs. 214, wRC+ 118 vs. 69 and their OBP+ISO is 100 points higher. Our model has this game with CHW 5.2 vs. PIT 4.5, Vegas has this projected at CHW 5.0 vs. PIT 4.5 so we have this somewhere around a -150 or -160 line instead of -125. Cease is by far not a favorite pitcher of mine but he has been serviceable with an ERA of 3.29 and allowing a .232 average. I will point out that he walks a shit ton of batters so that can get him in trouble quickly. He has 14 walks in his last 4 starts! His xFIP is 5.85 and BABIP is way under average at .224 meaning he is not a 3.29 ERA pitcher and he is more of a 4-5 ERA pitcher. However, he has a better pen behind him and has been getting it done. Joe Musgrove is in the same boat here where he isn’t a great pitcher but he has been serviceable for the Pirates. His last start after coming off the IL was 3.0 innings, 2 ER and 4 Ks. Prior to going on the IL he went 3.1 innings, 5 ERs, 5 WALKS and 2 Ks. He is rocking a 6.62 ERA this year and allowing a .269 average. I don’t think either pitcher is great and they both have their flaws but the CHW have the better bullpen and much better lineup to provide the run support needed. Our model has CHW 5.2 vs. PIT 3.6.
DETROIT TIGERS (+140) vs. MILW – Vegas has this game projected at 4.6 to 3.9 with MIL winning and our model has DET winning 4.4 to 3.9 so almost flipped. Both teams have decent bull pens ranking 10th (DET) and 4th (MIL). DET is a much better hitting team right now ranking 6th in L10 power rankings and over the last 14 days they are 7th in runs per game, 1st in team batting average, 11th in OBP+ISO and 7th in wRC+. MIL sits at 24th in L10 power rankings and over the last 14 days they are 24th in runs per game, 21st in team batting average, 19th in OBP+ISO and 19th in wRC+. Tigers are the hotter team right now and both teams are 9-11 in their last 20 games. Now we have looked at the teams let’s look at the starting pitchers. Adrian Houser (MIL) is coming off his most recent start vs. this DET team and went 5.0 innings but got shelled for 5 ER on 9 hits and only struckout 2 guys. Housers last 3 starts he has given up 5, 4, and 4 ER and allowing a .299 average on the year. Last year he only allowed a .244 average so while he is working out the rust let’s take advantage of him! DET is rolling out Spencer Turnbull who on paper looks great with a 3.89 ERA and .197 allowed batting average but I just get a bad feeling about him. He was a rock star in the early part of the season and then has recently fell of a cliff that the season stats don’t show. He has walked 16 batters in his last 4 starts and allowed 8 ERs in his last 13 innings across 3 starts. He just faced this MIL team and went 4.1 – 5 ER and 5 walks. I think this is more of a coin flip 50/50 game so I’m going to take the +140 side as that only has to win 35% of the time to be profitable for us.
BALT/NYM OVER 9.0 RUNS – This is baffling to me as the line opened at 10 runs and has moved all the way down to 9 runs already. We have this projected at 11.8 runs with NYM winning 6.4 to 5.4. Both teams hold a wRC+ over 100 for their current home/away and vs. pitcher hand. John Means has an ERA of 8.10 with an xFIP of 6.08 and allowing a .293 batting average facing a red hot Mets team putting up 5.4 runs per game over the last 14 days. Means has also allowed 6 ER in his last 9.1 innings. Wacha has a 7.20 ERA and allowing a horrible 1.75 whip and .322 batting average. He has allowed 16 ERs in his last 12 innings of work. How did the over go down a run? I must be missing something. In the last 3 games BAL has scored 5, 6 and 6 runs and NYM have scored 8, 14 and 5. Over 9??? I’ll toss a couple units on it.
SEA/SFG OVER 9.0 RUNS – I like totals because you don’t have to worry about the juice. Here we have a hot SFG team facing a decent pitcher and then a crappy pitcher facing a weak team, what could go wrong??? SFG rank 3rd in L10 game power rankings and 8th in runs per game over the last 14 days at 5.8 and rank 2nd in team batting average, wRC+ and OBISO. They are facing Ljay Newsome who looks decent on paper with 7.0 innings, 2 ER and 5 Ks with no walks. He has a BABIP of only .200 so he is going to regress and I think SFG can get to him tonight. Then on the other side we have Logan Webb who has given up 9 ER in his last 9.0 innings with 4 walks. He has a 4.71 ERA and allowing a .266 average facing a team that has put up 8, 4, 5 and 6 runs in their last 4 games. Our model has this game projected at 10.2 runs. Total opened at 8.5 and has moved to 9.0 with 92% of the bets.
DODGERS (-250) OVER ARI – I don’t bet games straight up that are over -200 odds so this is a good one you can mix into a parlay. Our model has LAD winning by 2 runs and so does Vegas so we agree! Walker Buehler if you read my DFS write up is a stud with a 3.60 ERA, 0.97 whip and allowing a low .173 batting average to opponent hitters. He has been getting better with his last 2 starts combining for 11.0 innings with 1 ER and 17 strikeouts. Actually, I just noticed his last start was vs. this same ARI team and he went 6.0 innings, 0 ER and 6 strikeouts. LAD has the #1 ranked bullpen behind him. ARI has also faced him for a total of 93 Abs and they are hitting only .215 off him with a 29% strikeout rate. ARI is 25th in our L10 game power rankings and bottom 3 in all of our team stats. LAD is 9th in our power rankings and they are top 10 in 3 of the 4 team stats. LAD faced Luke Waver and the 25th ranked bullpen. The bullpen alone has an xFIP of 4.98 with a 1.57 whip and allowing 1.52 H9. Weaver is a solid pitcher who finished last year with a 2.94 ERA and allowed a .227 batting average. This year he has a 7.44 ERA and allowing a .304 average. His BABIP of .374 indicate he has been “unlucky” for the most part on balls in play so that is likely to come down but these Dodgers are just to much!
RECAP & THOUGHTS:
I haven't made my bets for the day but looking at something like a White Sox / Giants over 9 / Dodgers parlay and might add in another one with CLE. My long shot hits are going to be mixing in this DET +140 game and the other over for a larger parlay. I always wait for starting lineups because if you bet the Dodgers at a whopping line and then find out Mookie and Bellinger are sitting you are F'd.
Thanks for reading & Good Luck Everyone,
Haze

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Up arrow if you enjoy our content! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues for us as I’m headed into a week of PTO for the holiday next week. After blasting a GPP win I went light last night because I didn’t love anything but still turned a 30% profit on my buy ins. Play more on the slates you love with solid stacks and solid pitching and the nights you are unsure then play light. Last night our pitching ended up doing decent after Scherzer didn’t live up to his expectations we had Zac Gallen going 7.0 innings of 1 hit ball with 7 Ks vs. a tough LAD team, Walker B. went 5.0 innings of shutout ball with 6Ks and McKenzie (who was my highest owned SP) went 6.0 innings, 0 ER and 6 Ks. Our stacks at ATL score 7 runs, CLE scored 5 runs and then the Padres went boom in the 8th inning for 8 runs to put up 11 for the game! Earlier main slate today at 3pm so I’ll get started!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
CLAYTON KERSHAW – His last 3 starts were 23, 27 and 28 DK points and the last time he faced ARI was on 08/02 of this year and put up 27 DK points going 5.2 innings, 0 ER and 6 Ks. He is priced up at 10,300 on DK but he is sitting at a solid 2x floor and can push 3x upside. ARI is ice cold right now and rank 28th in the last 10 game power rankings and they are 29th or 30th in the last 14 game stats we post on our cheatsheet. Want some more??? ARI is 1-8 vs. LHP and have a wRC+ that drops from 85.6 down to 68.8. Still want some more? They have faced Kershaw 91 times as a team and only hitting .231 off him. Christian Walker is the only one that is scary as he is 5 for 11 with 4 HRs off Kershaw. Add in that LAD is a -290 favorite and he is almost locked in for a “Win” tonight which is +4 points on DK!
J.A. HAPP – This is someone that I was looking at pretty hard at only 8900 but I’m starting to shy away. At first glance he has 25 and 18 DK points across his last two starts and just faced the NYM in his last start and went 7.1 innings, 0 ER and 5 Ks. However, looking at some advanced stats his BABIP is .167. The average BABIP for a pitcher per Fangraphs should be around .300 so I don’t pay attention anything around .280 - .320 however when you are extreme over or under there is something else going on. His xFIP is 6.08 and his K9 rate is really low at 5.0 this year. Use him at your own risk!
MIKE CLEVINGER – I’m going to pivot down here off Happ to Clevinger at only 8700. He is facing a decent LAA team who ranks 15th in the last 10 power rankings but has a solid 14.2% swinging strike rate and went through last season with a 2.71 ERA and 12.1 K9 ratio and allowed a low .209 batting average. This year he only has 22.2 innings but a 3.18 ERA and .247 average allowed. Solid stats for a mid cost pitcher. He is coming off a start where he faced a tough MIN team and went 6.0 innings 2 ER and 6 Ks. His two starts prior to that he had 10 WALKS which is an issue but let’s chalk that up to some rust and crazy season and he gets back on track tonight!
ZACH ELFIN – Here is your wildcard GPP play for the afternoon! On the surface he has a 4.10 ERA and facing a tough Nationals team. However, his BABIP hit year is a whopping .365 so that means hitters have been lucky on their contact and that should regress down to the mean of around .300. His xFIP indicates his ERA should be closer to 3.02 which is a solid number for someone priced at 7800. In 61 team Abs the Nationals are hitting a low .230 off Eflin with a 26% strikeout rate. Trea Turner is only 2 for 11, Cabrera is 2 for 11, Eaton is 2 for 15. They are also a -165 favorite so he might get a win and that is huge for his price point!
TAIJUAN WALKER – Is this price tag a joke or am I missing something? He is only 4800 on DK and they are even a -130 favorite. I can’t tell if there is an obvious error in pricing or if he is only going to toss a couple innings for his new team. I can’t find anything that says he will be limited to a certain number of pitches. Boston is hardly a scary team right now ranking 29th in the last 10 game power rankings. Heck 94% of the bets are on the TOR run line today. Walker getting a “Win” is almost 1x his salary, lol! He has a 3.27 ERA, 1.09 whip and .205 allowed batting average in 33 innings. However, his BABIP is low at .225 and his xFIP puts him around 4.91 but still the 4800 price tag I’m willing to take a shot. His last 3 starts he has 21, 27 and 19 DK points and that 27 was vs. a tough LAD team. In those 3 start he has 19.0 innings, 3 ER and 17 strikeouts. He also has upside dropping 34 DK points vs. OAK on 7/31. Something is off…
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. DANNY DUFFY – Duffy was going to make the pitching side of the article until I started looking at some of the advanced stats. Duffy is a solid LHP and heck he plays for my Royals so I gotta like him. However, White Sox at a beast team this year and loaded! Now what jumps out at me right off the bad looking at the MLB cheatsheet is that the are 11-0 vs. LHP an their wRC+ jumps from 104.6 to an outrageous 157.1. Their team batting average also goes from .253 up to .303 and OBP+ISO goes from .495 up to .644. So how is the CHW pricing? Glad you asked because it is fair coming in between 4200-4400 per person for the top 5 man stack. BVP is also solid for the CHW with 151 team Abs they are hitting a whopping .298. 5 projected starts have a wRC+ vs. LHP over 120 and 3 of them are over 175! Our model has them putting up 6.5 runs.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. ANDREW HEANEY – I like Heaney as a pitcher but the Padres are just on fire right now. Dodgers are one of the chalkier stacks on the night and I think most people will find they can fit them in using Walker at only 4800. Padres are projected at only 4.6 runs per Vegas so if I can get them low owned I’m happy to jump on that grenade and see if it explodes. Padres are #1 in last 10 game power rankings, #1 in last 14 days runs per game, team batting average, OBP+ISO and wRC+. Our model has them projected at 6.2 runs and they are priced fair at 4240 per player for the top 5 man stack. Last year Heaney struggled facing LHH giving up a wOBA that is 79 points higher and batting average 100 points higher. Tatis and Machado are just on fire right now so they are almost locks for me in the stack but then you have several LHH in Grishman, Hosmer, Moreland and my favorite Croneworth. Croneworth is still only 3900 and I was playing him when he was down at the 2500 range. He is batting a crazy .346 on the year!
PHILLIES VS. ANIBAL SANCHEZ – Vegas has them projected at 5.5 runs and our model as them at 6.1 so they are in play for us. They are #2 in the last 10 game power rankings and rank in the top 10 in all of our last 14 game team stats. They are running “Hot” right now on the cheatsheet and they faced a mid-low pitcher with the 23rd ranked bullpen behind him. Sanchez has 30 innings under his belt this year with a 6.90 ERA (5.35 xFIP) and allowing a 1.70 whip (horrible!) and a .326 batting average. He ended last season with an xFIP over 5.00. He has the 3rd lowest swinging strike rate on the slate and the Phillies have 117 team Abs facing him hitting .274. Being able to stack McCutchen – Hoskins – Harper – Realmuto plus another of my choosing looks like a fun stack!
LINEUP BUILDING:
If you find a stack that you like I would suggest duplicating it and running it with Kershaw + Walker and then Eflin + Clevinger to give you some differentiation in your lineups. Also if you can stack 5 guys in a single line and then fit 3 from another stack you like that is always a fun sweat! If you have a bunch of money left over which is possible today with some mid-low cost stacks and Walker at 4800 (if you like him) then your 3 one off guys can usually be stud hitters in good spots!
Thanks for reading,
Haze

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Please up arrow if you like our post! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday weekend! I didn’t get an article out yesterday and I apologize. I started looking at the slate and there were so many double header 7 innings games that I just gave up and focused on my FF draft I had that evening. But we have a big 12 game slate starting off at 6:05 pm central so let’s dive in and take a look at it!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
There are several inexpensive pitchers I like today so I’m going to hit on a few studs that you can mix in. All the high end guys have been up and down this year but every pitcher on the slate comes with risk. If I love a pitcher and I am looking at locking him in I will always let you know and today I don’t have anyone I’m locking in but mixing and matching with my favorite stacks.
LUCAS GIOLITO – Gio is on fire this year and the highest priced pitcher on the slate today. He is a -230 favorite so he is likely to get the “Win” which is +4 points on DK. KC has faced him several times and racked up 120 team Abs hitting only .167 with a 33% strikeout rate. Gio’s last 5 starts he has put up 20, 60, 43, 7, 24 and 27 DK points. We were all over him when he tossed his “no no” vs. PIT with 13 Ks. In his last 3 he has 8, 13 and 13 strikeouts giving up plenty of upside even if he does give up a few runs. KC is hardly a power house team ranking 28th in the last 10 game power rankings and 28th in last 14 runs per game.
GERRIT COLE – Cole hasn’t been at his best this year giving up 9 ERs over his last two starts and putting up only 9 and 15 DK points. However, this is Gerrit Cole and he is bound to bounce back strong. Prior to his last two starts he had around 20-25 DK points per start and he has massive strikeout upside. Even in his rough last few starts he has put up 7, 9, 10, 8 and 10 strikeouts. Tonight he gets to face a BAL team that has a 23% strikeout rate over the last 14 days and rank 20th in the last 10 game power rankings. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. In 46 team Abs vs. Cole they are hitting a lowly .196 with a 24% strikeout rate. Cole still has an xFIP of 3.69 on the year and allowing a low .224 batting average. Definitely someone to mix in because that 30+ DK point game is coming.
KENTA MAEDA – Maeda gets to face the Tigers today and they have been decent this year at 17-19 and logging some big wins. Maeda has a massive 17.2% swinging strike rate which is 3rd best on the slate and ahead of Gerrit Cole. He does have a really low .200 BABIP which would indicate that regression is coming but his xFIP is sitting at only 2.80. He is allowing a 0.75 whip and .163 batting average. The Tigers have a 23.9% strikeout rate over the last 14 days and Maeda has put up 8, 7 and 12 strikeouts in his last 3 giving us a shot at a solid floor. He just faced DET on the road and went 6.0 with 3 ER and 8 strikeouts and now he gets to face them at home. Prior to that start he had 24 and 38 DK points outings combining for 13.0 innings, 2 ER and 19 strikeouts. Worst case I think you get 20 DK points and the win but he could go nuts and push 3-3.5x.
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD – When writing this they have two different starting pitchers for tonight. If Justus is starting I like him as a decent punt option at 7600. Prior to his last start at LAA where he got blasted he put up a solid 21, 15 and 29 DK points combing for 18.0 innings, 2 ER and 16 strikeouts. TEX is a pillow fight of a matchup ranking 25th in our last 10 game power rankings and 30th in most of the last 14 day game stats that we have. If Nick M. is starting just look elsewhere.
KRIS BUBIC – Don’t be alarmed when you see my ChiSox stack but Bubic just faced CHW and went 5.1 innings, 2 ER and 8 strikeouts for 19.2 DK points and that is 3x value against a freaking powerhouse of a team! I don’t think I’ll have any shares of him but it is worth throwing out there if you are looking for a low owned GPP dart. I can’t imagine many people are going to take a rookie pitcher vs. the ChiSox.
TREVOR CAHILL – Cahill has been up an down this year with his last 3 starts hitting 8.5 points @ ARI and then another vs. ARI at 24.2 DK points and the 12 points @ LAA. Let’s focus on his last two starts since they were both against the team he is facing today. On the road he only went 3.1 innings, 2 ER and 4 strikeouts and it said he was dealing with some joint inflammation, so he had to exit early. The HOME start (where he is tonight) he went 5.1 innings, only 1 ER and 8 strikeouts. When he is priced at only 6600 if he can give you 24 DK points that is pushing 4x value. To give you another example do you think there is a greater chance of Cole hitting 40 DK points or Cahill hitting 24? You need the best bang for your buck! Now don’t leave 5,000 salary on the table and pivot down to Cahill from Cole that would just be stupid. ARI is ice cold in our rankings, 24th in the last 10 game power rankings and they are 29th or 30th in our last 14 team stats that we post on our sheets. Basically, it should be a soft matchup.
SETH LUGO – I was writing about Spencer Howard here at 5900 and then decided to remove him. He has a really high BABIP which should come down but these NYMs just rocked him on 8/14 and they are running hot right now. So I’m going down to my final pitcher and it just happens to be on the other side with Seth Lugo. Lugo is a gam at 5600 on the slate today but we have to be careful because I don’t know how many innings he will get. It looks like he had two starts on 8/25 and 8/30 and went 3.0 and 3.2 innings and only allowed 1 ER (combined) and had 12 strikeouts, Wow! He has a swinging strike rate this year of 17.8% which is #2 on the slate behind Giolito. He has an ERA of 2.12 and an xFIP of a slightly lower 2.06, 0.94 whip and allowing a .197 batting average. His K9 rate last year was 11.7 and this year it is up to 12.2. He is slightly better at home too! Last year his K9 rate went from 10.7 to 12.7, allowed batting average from .232 to .150 and xFIP of 3.98 down to 2.51 at HOME! He is a -160 favorite tonight but has a tough matchup vs. the red hot PHILLIES who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings. This is a risk/reward GPP play but these Phillie shave to cool off soon!
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STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. KRIS BUBIC (21ST Bullpen) – I know this is a fantasy sports article but I’m crushing it betting White Sox, White Sox run line and parlaying them with other games. White Sox had a few low scoring games and slid back to 11th in the last 10 game power rankings but still rank 7th in run per game, 4th in team batting average, 6th in OBP+ISO and 5th in wRC+ across their last 14 games. Our model has this game at 7.0 to 3.7 so the White Sox are an easy stack coming in at 4580 for the top graded 5 man stack. You can get this stack cheap if you fade either Tim Anderson (5600) or Jose Abreu (5400). The 4580 includes both of them so it is do-able at that price point.
PIRATES VS. ANTHONY DESCLAFANI (12th Bullpen) – I know what you’re thinking… Holy shit Haze has lost his mind, he has the Pirates in a stack. Pirates ranks 21st in the last 10 game power rankings and they are a horrible 12-25 on the year. But this is a fun stack because you can fit two $10k+ pitchers with it. You can stack the 5 highest graded hitters for only 3380 per player. So let me show you some math. This 5 man stack will cost you 16,900 and then you can use around 20,000 for two stud pitchers and have around 13,100 left for the other 3 hitters. If you take a low end catcher for 2,100 that means you can pitch two 5,500 players to fill in the holes. That is a fun lineup because every likes picking studs from the top of the salary range with 2 stud pitchers. Then what if PIT happens to drop 5-7 runs?? So PIT has faced Desco 61 times and they are hitting .328 off him with a lower 20% strikeout rate. Desco in 21 innings has a 7.71 ERA this year with an xFIP of 5.99, a very low 6.0 K9 ratio (down from 9.0 last year) and allowing a 1.67 whip and .282 batting average. This should be like soft toss batting practice for the Pirates. I mean in his last 3 starts he has put up -7, 4.9 and -18 DK points. In those 3 starts he has combined for only 10.0 innings, 19 ERs and 19 strikeouts. OH SNAP! I just noticed his -18.1 Dk points was against this same PIT team, WOAH! He only last 2.0 innings and gave up 9 EARNED RUNS with 1 strikeout. Take a $1-$3 single entry and stack the PIT team. Josh Bell (3500) is 6 for 17 off Deco with a HR, Polanco (2900) is 6 for 19 with a HR.
SAN FRANCISCO VS. MAD BUM (25th Bullpen) – So once again I have different information as some sites are showing Mad Bum as the SP and some are showing Taylor Clarke. Mad Bum should be returning from the DL due to his back strain and facing his former team. 3 of his last 6 starts were negative DK points and his last two were -7 and -7.4 and he combined for 6.1 innings, 13 ERs and only 4 Ks. For his sake I hope that 3 week stint helps him turn things around. SFG rank 5th in our last 10 game power rankings mainly due to that massive run in Colo. I like the SFG stack even if Clarke is throwing. If it is Clarke he still has a 5.32 ERA and 5.56 xFIP and allowing a .265 batting average. The bullpen has an xFIP of 4.91 with a 1.57 whip and allowing a .266 average. STACK IS CHEAP coming in at only 3940 per player for the top 5 man stack. You can fit two stud pitchers in this stack and still have around 10k left for the 3 spots. I like to pivot down on the C position in the 2,000-2,500 range and then spend up at the other spots.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS. BRANDON BIELAK (24th Bullpen) – I typically don’t stack the Angels but if they are facing Bielak I like it! I have another place showing Urquidy as the SP. Either way stack comes in at 4260 and they are 14th in our last 10 game power rankings and 11th in runs per game over the last 14 days. Mike Trout (6000) is on fire putting up almost 17 DK PPG over the last week and 12.6 over the last 14 days. If it is Bielak he has put up -8 and -11 DK points in his last two starts and those combined for a TOTAL of 2.0 innings, 10 ERs, 4 BBs and 2 strikeouts. Gulp!
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CHEAP HITTERS UNDER 4000 ON DK TO FILL YOUR ROSTERS:
MICHAEL BRANTLEY (3500) – Getting hot putting up 10, 21, 16 and 25 DK poins in his last 3 starts.
GIO URSHELA (3600) – 14, 8, 14 and 14 in his last 4 starts.
JEFF MCNEIL (2500) – Almost min priced and put up 10, 9, 13 and 12 in 4 of his last 5.
LOURDES GUIRREL (3900) – He has been up and down but 4, 17, 19, 7 and 20 in his last 5 is pushing 5x value.
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SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
Today I am going to do something new and add some of the sports betting picks that I like on the MLB slate. Now you can parlay them, bet the money line or bet the run line that is your decision but here is what I am looking at for the day.
TOP TIER BETTING PICKS:
PADRES (+100) – Ranking 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings they send Chris Paddack to the mound who has 42.2 innings with a 3.37 xFIP. Oakland is a little rusty after the covid break they had and they send Mike Fiers to the mound who has an xFIP of 6.01 and allowing a .282 batting average. Padres as even money and they are “red hot” right now. They have 43 team Abs hitting .326 off him with a micro-low 14% strikeout rate. Oakland has the better bullpen but our model has this at Padres winning 6.3 to 3.4 of Oakland.
WHITE SOX (-230 / RL -160) – This is a game that you likely have to mix into a parlay. White Sox are smashing everyone right now and they roll out their ace pitcher in Lucas Giolito vs. the Royals and their 28th ranked last 10 game power ranking. Our model has this at 6.9 to 3.7. Gio has 120 team Abs vs. KC and only allowing a .167 batting average and a solid 33% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starters for KC with 10+ Abs are batting under .200 off Giolito. Lopez is 2 for 10, Mondesi is 1 for 17, O’Hearn is 2 for 13, Soler is 1 for 13 and Whit is 4 for 23.
DODGERS (-185 / RL ??) – Colorado has been cold with their 18-20 record and 6-14 across their last 20 games. They rank dead last in our last 10 game power rankings. On the road they have a wRC+ of 73.5 and vs. RHP a 78.0 so I’m not worried about them blowing up. Dodgers are 4th in our last 10 game power rankings, 3rd in runs scored per game, 3rd in OBP+ISO and 2nd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days. Dodgers also have the #1 bullpen compared to the 28th of the Rockies. Our model has this game 6.1 to 4.0. Dodgers at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 101.8 to 134.8 and vs. RHP they sit at 128.6 so they are solid all around. I’m not really worried about any LAD starter they put out but Tony Gonsolin isn’t too shabby with a 0.51 ERA, 0.79 whip and .153 batting average. However, advanced stats show his xFIP of 4.11 and his low BABIP of .214 is going to come up. Even if he gives up a few runs the bullpen will shut this game down before Colorado can run away with anything. LAD line is too low!
SAN FRANCISCO (-135) – Giants skyrocketed in the rankings after that Colorado outburst! They are 5th in our last 10 game power rankings and rank top 4 in our last 14 team stats. They are facing the Diamondbacks who rank 24th in our last 10 game power rankings and bottom 2 in our last 14 game team stats. Offensive advantage for SFG. Both bullpens are 25th and 26th so not great. Cahill has been decent with a 2.51 ERA but his xFIP indicates he is closer to a 4.50 pitcher. His low BABIP of .167 is going to cause that xFIP to rise. The HOME start vs. ARI (where he is tonight) he went 5.1 innings, only 1 ER and 8 strikeouts. 5 of the projected hitters for ARI are batting under .200 on the year. Giants first 5 projected hitters are batting .299, .277, .292, .295 and .341.
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SECOND TIER BETTING PICKS: These are more “lean” plays that I like.
PIRATES (+130) – For the record our model has CIN winning this game which is in line with Vegas. However, I disagree with it after doing some research. CIN is 27th in our L10 game power rankings and they are only 27th in last 14 runs per game and holding a high 25% strikeout rate. They face Williams who has allowed a 5.50 ERA but his BABIP of .340 indicates he has been “unlucky” and his ERA should be closer to 4.66. He has always been better at HOME (where is he is tonight) and so far his home ERA is 1.64 with a 3.83 xFIP vs. his road 7.33 RA and 5.05 xFIP. PIT ranks 21st in our L10 game power rankings and 17th in runs per game over the last 14 days so not great but slightly higher than CIN. CIN has a slightly better bullpen coming in at 12th vs. 20th of PIT. However, Desclafani has been torched recently with his last 3 starts combing for only 10.0 innings while allowing 18 ERs and 10 walks. He just faced PIT on 8/13 and went 2.0 innings and got blasted for 9 ERs in that span putting up -18.1 Dk points. 90% of the Vegas money is on CIN but I’m taking PIT +130 as this is more of a coin flip game in my opinion with a slight lean to PIT and getting plus money.
NATIONALS / BRAVES OVER 9.5 RUNS – Vegas has this game as ATL -260 which is incredibly high in my opinion. We have ATL winning 6.8 to 5.7 and putting up 12.5 total runs. Nationals at +230 isn’t a terrible bet but you have to parlay it with the over because Fedde is going to give up 4-5 ERs in this game so if the Nats win IT WILL GO OVER! Fedde can’t shut down ATL but I’m not laying -260 on them against a hot Nationals team. Both teams are in our “red hot” category and rank 2nd and 14th in our last 14 runs per game. Both teams are 5th and 7th in our team batting average last 14 days. I understand Max Fried (L) is a good pitcher and on the outside you see a 1.60 ERA and 1.00 whip allowing a .199 batting average. However, his xFIP is 3.55 indicated he is still a good pitcher but not a 1.60 ERA pitcher. So my question is how do the Nationals do vs. LHP? They have a wRC+ that jumps from 94.1 to 129.6 vs. LHP so that is good, they have also been better on the road this year going from 78.8 at home to 120.0 in wRC+. When facing LHP their team batting average jumps from .251 to .304 an their wOBA from .318 to .372 and the OBP+ISO stat also goes up 100 points. Fedde for the Nationals has given up 10 ER combined in his last 2 starts which combined for 11 innings with 5 strikeouts. GAME TOTAL OVER 9.5 RUNS and I also like a small parlay of NATIONALS +230 with the OVER 9.5.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

1. Introduction

This franchise has been struggling quite a bit since 2008, except for the 2017 season where they rode a stout defense all the way to the AFC Championship Game. During this 12-year time span, the Jaguars have compiled a 63-129 record, which equates to a mediocre 32.8% winning percentage.
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What puzzling is the team does not seem to have a sound plan in place. From looking at their roster, there does not seem to be much hope for short-term, nor long-term success.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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The million-dollar question is whether Gardner Minshew is a starting NFL-caliber quarterback or not.
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Minshew clearly exceeded expectations that you would normally have for a rookie sixth-round pick. He threw 21 TD passes versus just six interceptions, while racking up 3,271 passing yards and 344 more yards on the ground. His 60.6% completion rate wasn’t great, though.
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All in all, he showed nice flashes, but was inconsistent at times. He did develop a nice rapport with second-year receiver D.J. Chark.
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You can tell that the organization is not 100% sold on him. There were strong rumors that the franchise had a lot of interest in Andy Dalton when the Bengals released him. However, he signed with the Cowboys.
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The backup QB role will be settled through a battle in training camp between Joshua Dobbs and Jake Luton.
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Dobbs was acquired via a trade with the Steelers after Nick Foles went down to an injury in the season opener. He was drafted in the 4th round of the 2017 draft out of Tennessee. He has attempted 12 passes in three years.
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As for Luton, the Jags took him in the sixth round in this year’s draft. He played his college ball at Oregon State, where he mostly played the role of a game manager. He repeatedly completed short passes and he completed a very low percentage of his throws under pressure.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Leonard Fournette was on the trading block, but the Jags weren’t able to find any suitors. His career got off to a fast start with 1,040 rushing yards, 302 receiving yards and 10 total TDs as a rookie in 2017.
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However, things didn’t go too well for him as a sophomore. His 2018 season was shortened due to an injury and he averaged a dreadful 3.3 yards per rush.
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Last year, he had season-highs in rushing yards (1,152), yards-per-rush average (4.3) and receptions (76). The only problem was that he reached the end zone on only three occasions. For the first time of his career, he stayed relatively healthy by playing 15 games.
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Fournette does not seem like a good three-down back. He is probably best suited as a power back in a committee-approach in the backfield.
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The number two runner last year was Ryquell Armstead. He was a rookie fifth-rounder who had received just 34 touches prior to the season finale. He filled in as the starting RB in Week #17, a game in which he rushed 10 times for 33 yards, while catching 5 passes for 52 yards. He finished the season with a mediocre 3.1 yards per carry average.
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I really like how the team addressed the lack of depth at the position by signing free agent Chris Thompson, who played the first seven years of his pro career with the Reskins. I really liked him early in his career, as he showed great flashes and big-play ability both as a runner and as a receiver. He was a great change-of-pace back.
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However, his production on the ground has dipped many years in a row. Take a look at his yards per carry average since 2015: 6.2, 5.2, 4.6, 4.1 and 3.7. At least his pass catching output has remained consistent, hauling in between 35 and 49 passes in each of those seasons.
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In my own humble opinion, he’s an underrated player who has a chance to revive his career. He’s 29 years old, but he has plenty of gas left in the tank considering the relatively small number of career touches. He has a good burst and nice playing experience. He will be reuniting with OC Jay Gruden who was his head coach in Washington.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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D.J. Chark was the go-to guy in the passing game last year. He really blossomed in his second year after catching just 14 passes as a rookie. In 2019, he posted a nice 73-1008-8 receiving line. He is pretty fast for a 6’4’’ guy. He stumbled a little bit down the stretch, but he was slowed by an ankle injury.
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Starting opposite Chark was Chris Conley. It’s unclear yet whether he can be a good No. 2 WR, but he had a good first season in Jacksonville after spending four years with the Chiefs. He set career marks in receptions (47), receiving yards (775) and 5 TD catches. His 16.5 yards per catch average was very solid.
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Conley is likely to fight with rookie Laviska Shenault for some playing time. Shenault was used in a variety of fashions with the Buffalos. Head coach Doug Marrone said he might also use him in the backfield or as the F tight end. Shenault has been plagued with injuries, so we’ll see how the team uses him if he can stay on the field.
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The starting slot receiver, Dede Westbrook, underwhelmed a little bit last year. His receiving yards and TDs regressed. His 10.0 yards per catch average was fairly disappointing as well. He is still a decent weapon, though.
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Keelan Cole’s time in the NFL could very well be running out. He burst onto the scene as a rookie undrafted free agent in 2017 with 42 catches for 748 yards and 3 TDs. Things have gone in a downward spiral since then. He reeled in just 24 grabs last year and finds himself on the outside looking in, especially after the team drafted Shenault.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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James O’Shaughnessy led all Jags tight ends with 14 receptions, despite playing just five games. It seems fair to affirm the position underperformed in 2019.
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If you project O’Shaughnessy’s numbers into a full 16-game season, you would obtain a 45-490-6.4 receiving line, which isn’t bad. He was on pace for his best season before tearing his ACL. Can he really become a starting TE in this league, considering he has never caught more than 24 passes in any of his first five years?
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The most likely starter is Tyler Eifert, who signed a two-year contract with Jacksonville after a seven-year career that has been marred with injuries in Cincinnati. He showed great flashes, especially in 2015 where he scored 13 TDs on 52 grabs. In the following three years, he has played 14 games and he has missed 34 of them. Unreal!
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For the very first time of his career, he played all 16 bouts last year. His workload was reduced, though. He is a big question mark that could either be a boom or a bust in 2020.
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Seth DeValve and Nick O’Leary both left via free agency, but they didn’t play a big role last year anyway.
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How does second-year man Josh Olivier fit in? He was taken early in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft out of San Jose State. He only caught three passes in four games and struggled to make his mark in limited time.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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Brandon Linder is a much underrated center in this league. He does not get much publicity playing in a small market like Jacksonville, but he has done a phenomenal job at the pivot for six consecutive years for the Jags. Last year’s 75.3 PFF grade was his worst of the past four seasons, and yet he graded as the fifth-best center in the league!
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Minshew’s blindside protector is Cam Robinson. That’s not necessarily good news for the signal caller. Robinson has been among the most terrible tackles in the NFL since he was drafted in the second round of the 2017 draft.
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At the other end of the offensive line, at right tackle, the starter is Jawaan Taylor. He enjoyed a respectable rookie season by finishing 50th out of 81 tackles last year. He slid out of the first round and was a good value pick for the Jaguars during the 2019 draft.
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Left guard Andrew Norwell came out of nowhere and played great in four seasons with the Panthers as an undrafted free agent out of Ohio State. Indeed, his PFF marks during this time frame lied between 73.6 and 81.1, which is well above average. He then signed a hefty contract with the Jags, and his PFF grades dropped to 69.3 in 2018 and 65.5 last year. His pass blocking is very efficient, but he has more trouble opening holes for the running game.
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Right guard A.J. Cann is another guy whose career is going south. He showed promise in his first two seasons as a pro, but has regressed big time in the last three years. Last year, he graded out as the number 60 guard out of 81 qualifiers.
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Will Richardson is ready to step in if an offensive lineman gets hurt. He missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury and was horrendous in spot duties last year.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The Jags scored the 26th most points in the league last year. Can we expect an improvement in the upcoming season?
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The starters remain the same, except at tight end where the team upgraded with the acquisition of Tyler Eifert. Can the often-injured big fellow stay healthy for the second year in a row?
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The team added depth with running back Chris Thompson and rookie WR Laviska Shenault. Both could provide a boost to a suspect offense. The whole receiving corps is pretty young and likely to improve.
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The entire OL is back, which is good for continuity reasons. Some studies have shown that continuity is a key factor to an offensive line’s success. LT Cam Robinson and RG A.J. Cann are a source of concern, though.
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An offense often goes as far as his quarterback takes them. In Jacksonville, that’s a big question mark.
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Will Gardner Minshew grow in his second year? As a former sixth-round pick, that’s not a gimme. The depth at the position is worrisome as well after Nick Foles left for Chicago, leaving Joshua Dobbs and Jake Luton as the lone alternatives (unless GM Dave Caldwell signs a veteran before the season kicks off).
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On paper, I would normally tag this group as a small upgrade over 2019. However, I find it difficult to project them to finish much higher than last year’s 26th rank. If Minshew goes down, things will get even uglier (again, unless the Jags add another QB).
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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Abry Jones played the most snaps on the interior of the line last year, and he wasn’t great. He graded out as the 82nd DL out of 114 qualifiers based on PFF rankings. He had a subpar season, receiving a 60.1 mark after getting over 70 in each of his previous three seasons. The undrafted alumni from the Georgia Bulldogs has spent his entire seven-year career with the Jags.
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Taven Bryan was pretty solid against the run last year. The 2018 first-rounder has only picked up three sacks in his two years as a pro, but he’s an efficient run-plugger.
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Marcell Dareus played just six games last year; he underwent core muscle surgery during the offseason. He has yet to sign with any team; Jacksonville GM Dave Caldwell is open to bringing him back if they can agree on a deal. Dareus posted 28.5 sacks in his first four seasons in the NFL compared to just nine over the last five years! He has always been a very good run-stopping force, but even this aspect of the game dipped last year. He would be playing his age-31 campaign.
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The team signed former Cardinal Rodney Gunter to a three year deal. His PFF grades have been very consistent year-over-year; he regularly finishes in the middle of the pack among all interior defenders.
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The Cards also acquired Al Woods via free agency. The 33-year-old is an above average player defending the run, but only has 4.5 sacks in 10 years. He is projected to be a rotational player in this defense.
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Another guy who is likely to be a reserve player is rookie Davon Hamilton, who was taken early in the third round last April. He will be groomed for a starting defensive tackle job in 2021. He is extremely strong, but needs to improve his burst in order to become a disruptive force in the big league.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
​
Ouch. This group took a big hit during the offseason.
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First, stud DE Calais Campbell was traded to Baltimore in return of a fifth-round pick (!!!). This was clearly a cap-clearing move since Campbell finished as the second-best edge defender in the whole league last year, based on the PFF rating system. He has averaged 8 sacks in the last 11 years, which is quite impressive. He is known for his pass rushing skills, but he was an awesome run defender. A big loss for the Jags.
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Yannick Ngakoue has demanded a trade and has been fighting publicly via Twitter with co-owner Tony Khan. No deal has been done yet. It seems unlikely he will be in a Jaguars uniform again. Ngakoue is in his prime years and has recorded 37.5 sacks in four years as a pro. Another big blow to this defense.
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Josh Allen’s rookie season was a success. He led the team with 10.5 sacks. He could improve against the running game and in coverage, though. Overall, he obtained the number 48 rank out of 107 edge defenders.
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Things weren’t as pretty for Dawuane Smoot last year. Sure, he racked up six sacks, but he graded out as the worst edge defender in the NFL. One of the main reasons was his abysmal run defense performance.
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With the 20th overall pick, the Jags selected K’Lavon Chaisson out of LSU. He’s a great pass rusher with elite burst. He still needs development due to his young age, but his raw talent is impressive. A good get for Jacksonville.
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The team also acquired Cassius Marsh, formerly of the Cardinals. Don’t hold your breath hoping he’ll be a star. This is his fifth team in seven years and he has never received very good PFF grades in his career.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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The Jaguars had a putrid linebacking corps last year, and it does not bode very well for 2020 either.
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Sure, they signed Joe Schobert away from Cleveland, who has stuffed the score sheet with at last 100 tackles in each of the past three years. He also plays all downs, but his run defense is suspect. He grades out as an average LB in the NFL.
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Myles Jack’s career is not going in the right direction. His PFF grades have deteriorated in each of the past three seasons, going from 79.2 in 2017, down to 68.1 in 2018 before plummeting to 46.1 last year. Following the signing of Schobert, he will slide to outside linebacker, a move that he is excited about. The young former second-rounder is primed for a bounce back year.
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Quincy Williams had an awful rookie season. The 2019 third-round pick was amongt the worst LBs in the league. So was his teammate Donald Payne. 31-year-old Najee Goode isn’t a viable solution either.
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Jacksonville claimed Preston Brown off waivers late last year after getting depleted by injuries at the position. He has not been good in any of his six years in the NFL, so why would it change in 2020?
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Perhaps Leon Jacobs can provide adequate play? He was taken in the 7th round of the 2018 draft, but he has surprised with strong play as a tackler in limited time. He played just 31% of the snaps last year, but we’ll see if the team gives him a heavier workload in 2020.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Jacksonville made another cap-related trade by getting rid of their No. 1 corner, A.J. Bouye. He had a surprisingly bad 2019 season and he will be looking to rejuvenate his career in Denver.
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In order to compensate for the loss, the Jags took C.J. Henderson with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft. He is at his best when shadowing the opposing team’s top receiver. He has outstanding athleticism, but his play took a step backward last year.
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A potential starter opposite Henderson is newly acquired Rashaan Melvin, formerly of the Lions. He played every down in the 13 games he played last year. He is great against the run, but struggles in coverage. Overall, he is clearly a below average corner who is joining a 6th team in seven years.
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Let’s not discard Tre Herndon too soon. He played 86% of the snaps last year and picked off three passes last year. He received equally poor PFF grades as Melvin, though.
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D.J. Hayden is the favorite to land starting slot corner duties. After five very ordinary seasons in Oakland and Detroit, he has elevated his game a lot since suiting up with the Jaguars. PFF rated him the 11th-best CB in the league last year, his second straight solid season.
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Fourth-round rookie Josiah Scott might push Hayden for the slot man job, but he is unlikely to supplant him at the moment. He could become the starter next year if Hayden leaves via free agency.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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This is the lone position on defense where no changes were made during the offseason. Finally some stability!
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Jarrod Wilson was undrafted coming out of Michigan. His snap count increased big time last year; after playing 30 snaps in 2016, 89 snaps in 2017 and 222 snaps in 2018, he saw the field on over 1,000 snaps last season. He responded very well by grading out as the number 25 safety out of 87 players. A very nice story. He has done a nice job in coverage throughout his career.
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The other starting safety is Ronnie Harrison. The 2018 third-round pick out of Alabama received a 61.1 PFF grade as a rookie before receiving a 60.9 mark last year. That put him as the 67th-best safety. There is not much hope he will develop into an upper tier safety in this league.
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Harrison missed two games due to injuries; in those contests, Andrew Wingard stepped in to replace him, but he wasn’t very effective. The undrafted prospect out of Wyoming is more of a reserve player.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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The linebacking corps received an upgrade after signing Joe Schobert; he will become the team’s MLB right away. The interior of the line was slightly improved by adding Al Woods and Rodney Gunter, while losing Marcell Dareus who only played six games last year anyway.
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The defense suffered a big hit with the departures of three star players: Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye and most likely Yannick Ngakoue (although his situation is still up in the air). Drafting K’Lavon Chaisson and C.J. Henderson was smart, but you cannot ask them to fill such big shoes in their rookie season.
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At safety, Ronnie Harrison is a perennial below average player, while Jarrod Wilson did a very fine job last year. He’s an unproven guy and I’m worried he might regress significantly this season.
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For these reasons, I expect a moderate downgrade for the Jaguars defense in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to win 5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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I'll answer this question via two different methods.
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4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction
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I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Jags' 16 games):
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	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 5 WINS	35%	Pinnacle	+154	-11.2%
UNDER 5 WINS	65%	10Bet	-115	+21.6%

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Tip: Bet UNDER 5 wins
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4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads
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Here is the methodology I used here:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Jaguars won more or less than 5 games.

Here are the results:

	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 5 WINS	38.4%	Pinnacle	+154	-2.5%
UNDER 5 WINS	61.6%	10Bet	-115	+15.2%

Tip: Bet UNDER 5 wins (18th-highest ROI out of 32 teams)
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For your information, here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Jags’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -1 vs CHI, -1 vs CLE, +1.5 vs DET, +3 vs HOU, +6.5 vs IND, 0 vs MIA, +6 vs PIT, +3.5 vs TEN.
ROAD: +16.5 @ BAL, +3.5 @ CIN, +11.5 @ GB, +9 @ HOU, +10.5 @ IND, +7 @ LAC, +11.5 @ MIN, +11 @ TEN.
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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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Thanks for reading my 32 NFL team previews!
​
Professor MJ

At the start of the 2020 baseball season, a common exclamation rang out on both sides of the Pacific.
"That can't be right."
"Are you sure that says Mariners and not Marines?" "I recognize the logo, but that roster sure as shit isn't Cincinnati!" "Do we even have a direct flight to Kansai International?!"
Due to a scheduling mishap caused by a rare software bug and/or a 14-year-old hacker from Finland, the MLB and NPB have effectively traded teams. The Yomiuri Giants and Hanshin Tigers have been placed in the NL West and AL Central, respectively; their similarly named cousins in San Francisco and Detroit join the Central League.
Betting websites have no idea what to do. MLB Network is okay with it because at least they now have early morning content for the Eastern Time Zone. The carbon offset market is flooded by 42 baseball teams striving to reduce their travel expenditures.
Let's see how these teams shape up relative to their new peers, eh?

Panic in Detroit?

The strength of this Tigers team is going to be pitching - Boyd, Norris, and Nova are a great 1-2-3 in NPB, and Joe Jimenez is already a top closer in Japan. The less said about the position players the better. Still, compared to the other NPB teams, they're a top-half team.

When the Lights Go Down in the City

The Giants are already rated top-4 in every category, with Posey, Longoria, Gausman, and Gott netting best-in-league honours. San Francisco is approaching this season with a surprising amount of excitement - at least they won't have to worry about the Dodgers in this league.

Viva Giants

Ohhhh boy. Only four players have green numbers or better - Rubby De La Rosa, Tomoyuki Sugano, Hayato Sakamoto, and Yoshihiro Maru...all of whom are free agents next season. Sugano's not even considered an ace in MLB; Maru's their only hope offensively and defensively.

The Colonel's Curse Works in Weird Ways

At least the Giants have a top-5 player. The Tigers are buried in the bottom-third at all positions. At least they have a DH to let Yoshio Itoi's bat loose? He's one of three players happy about this whole mess - the others are Justin Bour and Jerry Sands, about to embark on their revenge tour.

The Setup

In order to keep the San Francisco and Detroit teams compliant with NPB rules, I gave all members of the main roster temporary Japanese citizenship. They can only add four foreigners from their 40-man, to meet foreign player limits.
I didn't change minor league teams, so the ni-gun teams are staying in Japan and the full minor league system is intact for the ex-MLB squads. That's a long call-up if you're away from home.
Also, OOTP still can't get NPB rules quite right - there's no ties after 12 innings, and the Climax Series Final Stage is supposed to be best of 7 with the top seed getting a one-game advantage.
By luck of the draw, the NL West and AL Central will meet up this season to let the Giants and Tigers have some MLB action in Japan. I also went with the standard schedules - no coronavirus cancellations.

March

Have you ever been in San Francisco in March? Would you want to play baseball there? That's exactly what Detroit and the Frisco Giants did in their first ever NPB tilt at Oracle Park, where the wind is brisk and the mercury reads 45 degrees. The only thing colder were the bats - 0-for with RISP until the top of the 9th, when Jeimer Candelario clanked a triple off the right field wall, scoring 2. Jimenez picks up the save, and Detroit is unbeaten in NPB play! Boyd gets the win with 8 scoreless.
Meanwhile in MLB, Hanshin and Yomiuri took advantage of the lack of a foreign player limit to try and improve their roster by demoting youngsters, signing depth free agents, and calling up all their gaijin waku. Then their season got underway 6 days later, with Hanshin hosting Cleveland and Yomiuri hosting San Diego.
At Koshien, it wasn't Justin Bour or Jerry Sands who broke the game open, but 42-year-old Kosuke Fukudome with a 3-run jack to right in the 4th. Yusuke Ohyama hit one himself the next inning, and things were looking good for Hanshin...until Kyuji Fujikawa blew a gasket and gave up home runs to Jose Ramirez to get the Indians within one, and Roberto Perez to hand them the lead in the top of the 9th. 9-7 the final for the Tribe. Typical Hanshin.
Yomiuri didn't fare too much better, as Manny Machado cranked two solo shots, including the game-winner in the top of the 10th, to pace the Padres to a 3-2 extra-innings win at the Tokyo Dome. At least Maru got a two-run dinger of his own?
San Francisco has rebounded with 8 straight wins to tie Detroit for the CL lead at 8-2 as the calendar flips into April. Hanshin is 1-4 and Yomiuri is 2-3 over in MLB.

April

Things took a turn for the terrible for the Tigers in MLB. Hanshin went 7-19 for a putrid .269 win percentage; the lone bright spot was Yoshio Itoi plugging a five-hit game against the Yankees. Every starter has an ERA over 6, Bour is batting .141, and the team has resorted to dumpster diving to improve. Brian Dozier and Breyvic Valera both came over on waivers from the Padres. They are 12 games back of the AL Central after ONE MONTH.
The MLB Giants aren't faring much better with a 10-15 April, but most of that is a six-game losing streak they finished the month in. They added Hanley Ramirez on a minor league deal and Jonathan Lucroy off waivers from Boston. A highlight of the month was Gerardo Parra's return to Washington for a proper farewell; the Nats won 2 of 3, the last in extras, and each game by one run. Maybe Yomiuri CAN hang with this league!
The NPB Tigers have turned into pitching phenoms. Every starter's ERA sits at 2.75 or lower, and they rank 1st in the league for runs against, starters ERA, and FIP. They also league the league in HRs, as CJ Cron has racked up 10 to date. Detroit's seen two win streaks of five games or more in a 17-8 April. They're still 2 games back of...
The Giants of the NPB, both in name and results. In spite of a spate of injuries to Sandoval, Cueto, and Samardzija, San Francisco went 19-6 in April on the strength of their bats. Not sure how long Trevor Cahill is going to go without allowing an earned run, but he's at 22 IP already. The closest domestic competition to the Giants are the Hiroshima Toyo Carp and Yokohama DeNA BayStars, each 10 games back.

May

Hanshin went 7-22. Kosuke Fukudome still leads the team in HR and RBI. The starting pitching is still hot garbage. As a Hanshin fan, this is starting to hurt my soul.
On May 5, Yomiuri shipped Hirokazu Sawamura, one of their better relievers, to the Dodgers for a minor-league first baseman named Edwin Rios. Rios has batted .351 with 8 HR and 18 RBI since joining the Giants. Didn't exactly help, they still went 8-20 in May. More non-Japanese players are joining the roster too, like Cesar Puello (waiver from Boston), Jose Vinicio (minor league deal), Wilmer Font (waiver from Toronto), Clayton Richard (minor league deal), and Braden Shipley (trade from KC). Sugano's at least 4-3 with a 2.21 ERA.
Over in Detroit, Jeimer Candelario has turned it on and joins CJ Cron in double-digit HR territory, but a merely pedestrian 15-12 May isn't confidence inspiring.
San Francisco got Cueto and Anderson back, Kevin Gausman is 7-0 with a 0.95 ERA and won the Pitcher of the Month award, and the Giants have pulled 7 games ahead of the Tigers for the Central League pennant - they went 20-7 in May! The Japanese leagues haven't seen regular season dominance like this since the Invincible Seibu era.

June

Shintaro Fujinami's always been an enigma in NPB, but he's 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA in MLB; hope springs eternal in Nishinomiya. An 8-18 June is an improvement. I guess Logan Forsythe is an upgrade over Kento Itohara too, since he was claimed from the Phillies.
Yomiuri added another foreign hitter in Ildemaro Vargas; I mean, why not, Edwin Rios now has 15 home runs in 48 games. The other bats have gone frigid, though, and a 10-18 June shows it.
Casey Mize continued his absolute tear by throwing a no-hitter against the Chunichi Dragons on June 25; he's 9-3 with a 1.76 ERA after that start. With Michael Fulmer back from TJ surgery, Detroit's got a chance to gain ground on the Giants in spite of a 13-8 June.
Uh-oh - Johnny Cueto's UCL tore, he's done for the season. San Francisco's power is still in its lineup, with 3 guys hitting .290 or better (Posey, Flores, and Mauricio Dubon). A 14-7 June means they get to stay ahead of the Tigers by 8 games still,

July

NPB had both its All-Star Break, and one highlight of that was an American vs American showdown in the HR Derby, with Detroit's CJ Cron edging out Brandon Laird of the Chiba Lotte Marines 14-13 in front of his home crowd at Comerica Park (the game pre-empted morning shows across Japan!).
4-20. Not a weed joke, that was Hanshin's record in July. Fukudome cooled off in a big way, Fujinami returned to earth, Bour is still below the Mendoza line in spite of 18 HR, and Haruto Takahashi blew out his flexor tendon. Complete Mudville. The lone bright spot was their closer Suguru Iwazaki getting an All-Star nod.
An absolute shock at the July trade deadline - Tomoyuki Sugano was traded to the Dodgers for 2B Enrique Hernandez and SP Dustin May. Sugano's 4-9 record isn't impressive, but 3.45 ERA and 119 Ks in 128 IP is. And now he's joining a rotation of Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, and Alex Wood (lard tunderin' Jayzus) to try and deliver a World Series for Los Angeles. Without him pitching for Yomiuri...the team's gotten better? 12-13 in July!
Jonathan Schoop had been a standout batter in NPB all season, and earned the Player of the Month award in July for a .338 batting average, 8 HR, and 18 RBI. That said, Detroit just hasn't been able to gain ground on the Giants. Their starting pitchiing has fallen behind San Francisco's too. A 11-6 month is decent, at least. (forgot to take a screencap)
Wait - did the Even Year BS make it to Japan? How else do you explain rookie Logan Webb going 8-3 with a 2.02 ERA in his first full season in a major league? San Francisco went 11-5, and maintained their 8.5 game lead over Detroit.

August

101 losses, and it's not even September 2. Hanshin's putrid year abroad continued with a 9-18 month in the Kansai heat. More foreigners are joining the squad - Mike Tauchmann on waivers from the Yankees, and Carson Fulmer on waivers from the White Sox. And the Tigers finish the month by hearing Yoshio Itoi's season is done after breaking his elbow.
And back down to earth go the Yomiuri Giants, 6-22 in August without their stud, eliminated from the postseason and 48 games back of Los Angeles. Dustin May was pressed into service as soon as he was acquired, and he's 2-4 with a 6.28 ERA so far. Wilmer Font also had his season end via elbow surgery. Woof. Bright spot is that Hayato Sakamoto and Edwin Rios are both tearing the cover off the ball.
(Sidebar: Tomoyuki Sugano signed an extension with the Dodgers - 5y95M. He's 5-1 since heading Stateside).
The Tokyo 2020 Olympics took up most of the month, so fewer games were played.
Meanwhile in San Francisco, the Giants have clinched a playoff spot in spite of going 5-8 coming back from the Oympics break. Buster Posey's in the running for the batting title, but the rest of the bats need to keep going to give this squad a title.
Schoop now leads the team in HR and RBIs, and is 0.001 back in batting from Niko Goodrum for the team lead there too. 7-6 isn't the best August record, but they did gain ground! They're 11 up on Yokohama, so a playoff spot is all but assured. And Casey Mize's 12 wins are generating Sawamura buzz.

September

Finally, something resembling normalcy - the Yomiuri Giants visiting Koshien to play the Hanshin Tigers. No need for a trans-Pacific plane ride to cheer on your squad! The Kyojin won two of three, with the Tigers' one win coming in extras.
The Hanshin Tigers matched the 2003 Detroit Tigers (hey!) with a 43-119 record thanks to a 7-18 September. Truly, truly, abysmal. Now their long march has ended, and they can turn tail and return back home next season without issues and a lot of their chaff (when did they get Trevor Rosenthal or Fernando Abad?).
The Yomiuri Giants lost 107 games and their best pitcher. A 7-16 September certainly continued that trend. At least they found their new first baseman, as Edwin Rios' 36 home runs and 108 RBIs pace the team. Maru and Sakamoto also break 20 HRs.
Michael Fulmer earned Pitcher of the Month honours with a 3-1 September, 37 Ks in 33 1/3 IP, and a .165 oppAVG. That helped pace Detroit to a 17-8 September, and get them within 4 games of the Giants with 5 still to play (SF has two games in hand). Losing star SP Matt Manning to a torn labrum may dampen their postseason hopes, though.
San Francisco righted the ship with a 14-10 September, and the starting rotation looks as strong as ever. Question is, how do you pare these six guys down to three or four for a playoff series?
(sidebar: The Dodgers went 110-52 to win the NL West, and the Toronto Blue Jays took the second wild-card spot at 96-66!)

October & November

The Tigers went a perfect 5-0 to finish their season, but came up just short at 93-50, while the Giants finished 95-48 after going 4-3 in October. San Francisco becomes the first American team to win the Central League pennant, and Buster Posey got his CL batting title in the end with a .299 BA.
The Detroit Tigers hosted the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in the CL Climax Series First Stage. Courtesy of strong outings from Casey Mize and Matt Boyd, and the offense waking up all at once, the Tigers cruised to a sweep by scores of 8-1 and 7-3. Schoop and Candelario (series MVP) each had two dingers in Game 2. Anyone wanna bet if Alex Ramirez loses his job now?
This sets up an American-style CL Climax Series Final Stage, with San Francisco hosting Detroit. The Giants walked off winners in Game 1, but the Tigers' pitching put up back to back shutouts in Games 2 and 3, the latter of those a grueling 14-inning affair only broken open by Jordy Mercer's 2-run triple. San Francisco fought back to take Game 4 courtesy of Logan Webb pitching a one-hit shutout (9 Ks too!). In the winner-take-all Game 5, Tigers pinch hitter Christin Stewart hit a go-ahead double in the top of the 7th to shock the Bay City crowd. Detroit's bullpen slammed the door the rest of the way, and the Tigers had punched their ticket to the Japan Series. Buster Posey took home series MVP honours in a valiant losing effort.
Detroit's opponent in the Japan Series? Only the most successful NPB team of the 2010s - the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, who won another PL pennant and got past the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in 4. Jingoism was running at an all-time high to preserve the honour of the Japan Series by making sure it stayed in Japanese hands. The Hawks and Tigers traded wins in Games 1 and 2, with the winning team hitting 3 HRs in each. The series shifted from the heated PayPay Dome to Comerica Park in November (brrr), but the Detroit bats stayed hot to take Games 3 and 4, still hitting three HRs in each. Home runs by Akira Nakamura and Kenta Imamiya put Game 5 away early for the Hawks, bringing the series back to Fukuoka. Yuki Yanagita clobbered a three-run shot himself in the 1st of Game 6 to take SoftBank to an early lead, but it didn't last long, as the Tigers put up 5 runs in the 7th and 9th (CJ Cron with two dingers) to take the game 14-4 and the Japan Series in 6 games. Austin Romine earned JS MVP honours for the effort.
Detroit rejoiced - it didn't matter if it was on the other side of the world, the Tigers had won a championship for the first time in almost four decades.
(sidebar: The Blue Jays won 7-4 over Oakland at the O.Co in the Wild Card game, but bowed out in the ALDS vs Houston in 4 games. Also lol the 90-72 Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers in 5 in the NLDS, with MadBum getting two of the three wins. World Series was Braves over Indians in 7 games.)

Offseason

• After league officials apologized profusely to all teams involved, the teams mercifully returned back to their home leagues at the conclusion of the awards season.
  
• After playing in San Francisco and Detroit so often, it should come as no surprise some NPB players liked it in America. Three players from the Hiroshima Toyo Carp (Daichi Osera, Ryoma Nishikawa, and Ryuji Ichioka) and Yasuhiro Ogawa from the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, were all posted.
  
• Yomiuri's 1B Edwin Rios earned some NL Rookie of the Year votes, finishing second to Gavin Lux
  
• Mitsui Golden Glove winners for the teams in America included Kevin Gausman (P), Buster Posey (C), Jeimer Candelario (3B), and Billy Hamilton (CF).
  
• San Francisco closer Tony Watson narrowly took home Reliever of the Year for his 38-save season.
  
• Best Nine winners (equivalent to Silver Slugger) included Buster Posey (C) and Niko Goodrum (SS)
  
• San Francisco second baseman Mauricio Dubon took home CL Rookie of the Year over teammate Mike Yastrzemski.
  
• Ron Gardenhire won Manager of the Year for the Central League
  
• Kevin Gausman took home the CL Eiji Sawamura award with an 11-7 record, 1.40 ERA, 211 Ks in 212 2/3 IP, only 31 BB, and a .169 oppAVG.
  
• And Gausman and Posey finished 2nd and 3rd in CL MVP voting to Tokyo Yakult Swallows second baseman Tetsuto Yamada.
  

Epilogue

A darkened room in Seattle. A clandestine Telegram call. On one end, Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto. The other....a 14-year-old hacker in Finland
"So they made the playoffs? BOTH of them? I see. I think we need to visit our owners a bit more often, then..."
TO BE CONTINUED

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) vs Seattle Seahawks(11-5)

For the third season in a row the Eagles are limping into the playoffs with a multitude of injuries at key positions. But for the first time in those 3 seasons, starting QB Carson Wentz is at the helm and playing at his best. Wentz has won 4 straight must win games against division rivals and leading the Eagles offense complied mostly of backups and practice squad players to over 400 yards of total offense in each game. He will need to extend that winning streak to 5 games this week week against the Seattle Seahawks, the same Seahawks Wentz had his worst game of the season against where he turned the ball over 4 times. Wentz will need to stay hot and play much better than he did in the week 12 loss to the Seahawks. Like that game Wentz will be without his top targets at WR, and starting RG Brandon Brooks and RT Lane Johnson. Unlike last time, Wentz seems to have found a way to win without those key players. Key players have stepped up including Greg Ward and Boston Scott in those wins and they will need to again in their first playoff action of their careers. On the other side of the ball the Eagles will need to do something they have struggled with for years, stop Russel Wilson who is currently undefeated against the Eagles. Wilson has had an outstanding season and should be in conversation for MVP if not for Lamar Jackson’s amazing season. The Eagles defense will need to hold him in check if they hope to win, especially since the Seahawks will be without their top running backs. If the Eagles defense can hold, and Wentz can keep up his hotsteak, we may just see another week of postseason football in the Doug Pederson era with a hot team which can always be dangerous. Go Eagles!

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Date
Sunday, January 5th, 2020

Game Time	Game Location
4:40 PM - Eastern	Lincoln Financial Field
3:40 PM - Central	1020 Pattison Ave
2:40 PM - Mountain	Philadelphia, PA 19148
1:40 PM - Pacific	Wikipedia - Map

Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 43°F
Feels Like: 37°F
Forecast: Clear. Clear throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0 %
Cloud Coverage: 11%
Wind: WNW 11 MPH

Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Seattle -1.5
OveUnder: 45.5
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 7-9, Seahawks7-8-1

Where to Watch on TV
NBC will broadcast Sunday’s game to a national audience. Al Michaels will handle play-by-play duties and Chris Collinsworth will provide analysis. Michele Tafoya will report from the sidelines.
Play off TV Coverage

Internet Streams
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams

Radio Streams
Disclaimer: Subscription Based Official NFL Radio Streams available via TuneIn
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming

Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (42nd season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	WIP-FM	94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA	WCTO-FM	96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey	WENJ-FM	97.3 FM
Levittown, PA	WBCB-AM	1490 AM
Northumberland, PA	WEGH-FM	107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA	WPPA-AM	1360 AM
Reading, PA	WEEU-AM	830 AM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA	WEJL-FM	96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WEJL-AM	630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WBAX-AM	1240 AM
Williamsport, PA	WBZD-FM	93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE	WDEL-FM/AM	101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA	WSOX-FM	96.1 FM

Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	LA MEGA	105.7 FM
Allentown, PA	WSAN	1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ	WIBG	1020 AM; 101.3 FM

Seahawks Radio
Seahawks Radio Network Steve Raible returns for his 37th season in the radio booth, his 15th as the play-by-play announcer and “Voice of the Seahawks” after 22 seasons as the Seahawks analyst. Hall of Fame quarterback, Warren Moon, returns to the Seahawks radio team for his 15th season as an analyst.

National Radio
Westwood One will broadcast the game to a national audience with Kevin Harlan on play-by-play and Brian Griese providing analysis and Ross Tucker reporting from the sidelines.

Satellite Radio

Station	Eagles Channel	Seahawks Channel
Sirius Radio	SIRI 83 (Internet 825)	SIRI 82 (Internet 828)
XM Radio	XM 225 (Internet 825)	XM 226(Internet 828)
Sirius XM Radio	SXM 225 (Internet 825)	SXM 226 (Internet 828)

Eagles Social Media	Seahawks Social Media
Website	Website
Facebook	Facebook
Twitter	Twitter
Instagram	Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles	Snapchat: Seahawks

NFC East Standings

NFC EAST	Record	PCT	Home	Road	Div	Conf	PF	PA	Net Pts	Streak
Eagles	9-7	.563	5-3	4-4	5-1	7-5	385	354	+31	4W
Cowboys	8-8	.500	5-3	3-5	5-1	7-5	434	321	+113	1W
Giants	4-12	.250	2-6	2-6	2-4	3-9	341	451	-110	1L
Redskins	3-13	.188	1-7	2-6	0-6	2-10	266	435	-169	4L

• Bold Indicates Division Winner

NFC Playoff Picture

Seed	Team	Division	Record
1	49ers	West	13-3
2	Packers	West	13-3
3	Saints	South	13-3
4	Eagles	East	9-7
5	Seahawks	West	11-5
6	Vikings	North	10-6

This Weekends NFC Games

Game	Time	Location
Vikings @ Saints	1/5/2020 1:05PM EST	Mercedes-Benz Stadium, New Orleans, LA
Seahawks @ Eagles	1/5/2020 4:40PM EST	Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

AFC Playoff Picture

Seed	Team	Division	Record
1	Ravens	North	14-2
2	Chiefs	West	12-4
3	Patriots	East	12-4
4	Texans	South	10-6
5	Bills	East	10-6
6	Titans	South	9-7

This Weekends AFC Games

Game	Time	Location
Bills @ Texans	1/4/2020 4:35PM EST	NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Titans @ Patriots	1/4/2020 8:15PM EST	Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

Series Information
The Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
December 12th, 1976 at Veteran's Stadium Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia Eagles 27 - Seattle Seahawks 10
Points Leader
Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (350-319)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0- against the Seahawks
Pete Carroll: 5-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Pete Carroll: Carroll leads 3-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Seahawks: 0-3
Russell Wilson: Against Eagles: 4-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Russell Wilson: Wilson leads 3-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Seahawks lead the Eagles: 4-0
Record @ CenturyLink Field: Seahawks lead 3-2

Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 11 - Seahawks No. 7
Record
Eagles: 9-7
Seahawks: 11-5
Last Meeting
Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019
Seahawks 17 – Eagles 9
In a sloppy rainy game with high winds both QBs struggled, but the Wilson made plays when it counted and got help from running back Rashaad Penny who had a career day running for 129 yards including a 58 yard TD run. The Eagles defense was again fooled by a trick play on a flea flicker which saw Wilson hit Malik Turner for a 33 yard TD. The Eagles offense was terrible struggling to get anything going all day and missing key players including Jeffrey, Jackson, Agholor, Howard, Johnson and Brooks didn’t help. It was the worst game of the season for Wentz who turned the ball over 4 times in the Eagles loss. Russel Wilson continued his dominance over the Eagles and remained undefeated against them in his 8 year career.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap

Last 10 Meetings

Date	Winner	Loser	Score
11/24/19	Seahawks	Eagles	17-9
12/3/17	Seahawks	Eagles	24-10
11/20/16	Seahawks	Eagles	26-15
12/07/14	Seahawks	Eagles	24-14
12/01/11	Seahawks	Eagles	31-14
11/02/08	Eagles	Seahawks	26-7
12/02/07	Seahawks	Eagles	28-24
12/05/05	Seahawks	Eagles	42-0
12/08/02	Eagles	Seahawks	27-20
09/23/01	Eagles	Seahawks	27-3

Injury Reports	Depth Charts
Eagles	Eagles
Seahawks	Seahawks

2019 “Expert” Picks
Week 12 - "Expert" Picks

2019 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Seahawks Season Stats

2019 Stats (Starters/Leaders)

Passing

Name	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Wentz	388	607	63.9%	4037	27	7	93.1
Wilson	341	516	66.1%	4110	31	5	106.3

Rushing

Name	ATT	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Sanders	179	818	51.1	4.6	3
Carson(IR)	278	1230	82.0	4.4	7
Lynch	12	34	34.0	2.8	1

Receiving

Name	REC	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Ertz	88	916	61.1	10.4	6
Lockett	82	1057	66.1	12.9	8

Sacks

Name	Sacks	Team Total
Graham	8.5	43
Green	4.0	28

Tackles

Name	Total	Solo	Assist	Sacks
Jenkins	80	62	18	2.5
Wagner	159	86	73	3.0

Interceptions

Name	Ints	Team Total
Gerry/Jones/Darby/McLeod	2	11
Wright/Flowers/Diggs	3	16

Punting

Name	ATT	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	IN 20	TB	BP
Johnston	71	3292	61	46.4	42.3	28	4	0
Dickson	74	3341	63	44.1	40.9	34	5	0

Kicking

Name	ATT	MADE	%	LONG	PAT
Elliot	26	22	84.6%	53	35/37
Myers	28	23	82.1%	54	40/44

Kick Returns

Name	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Sanders	14	314	22.4	67	0
Lockett	14	279		33	0

Punt Returns

Name	RET	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Scott	6	43	7.2	13	0	4
Lockett	13	66	5.1	20	0	10

League Rankings 2019

Offense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Total Offense	360.8	14th	374.4	8th
Rush Offense	121.2	11th	137.5	4th
Pass Offense	239.6	11th	236.9	14th
Points Per Game	24.1	12th	25.3	9th
3rd-Down Offense	45.4%	4th	39.5%	16th
4th-Down Offense	33.3%	28th(t)	50.0%	13th(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%)	66.7%	3rd	63.3%	9th

Defense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Total Defense	331.7	10th	381.6	26th
Rush Defense	90.1	3rd	117.7	22nd
Pass Defense	241.6	19th	263.9	27th
Points Per Game	22.1	15th	24.9	22nd
3rd-Down Defense	34.2%	4th	38.3%	16th
4th-Down Defense	61.1%	27th	58.5%	24th
Red Zone Defense (TD%)	55.8%	14th(t)	61.5%	26th

Team

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Turnover Diff.	-3	22nd	+12	3rd(t)
Penalty Per Game	6.8	9th(t)	7.1	16th(t)
Penalty Yards Per Game	52.3	9th	55.1	13th

Connections
Eagles HC Doug Pederson was born in Bellingham, WA, and grew up in Ferndale, WA. Pederson recently admitted that he "Grew up a Seahawks Fan" and used to attend Seahawks games at The Kingdome.
Eagles LBs coach Ken Flajole is from Seattle and previously coached the Seahawks’ DBs (1999, 2001-02) and LBs (2000).
Eagles Safeties coach Tim Hauck played for the Seahawks in 1997.
Eagles Defensive Line coach Phillip Daniels was selected by Seattle in the 4th round of the 1996 NFL Draft.
Seahawks Northeast Area Scout Todd Brunner worked for the Eagles for four seasons (1994-97) as an area scout covering the Northeast. He joined the Eagles as a scouting intern in 1992 and worked as a scouting assistant in 1993.
Eagles CB Sidney Jones attended University of Washington.
Seahawks LB Mychal Kendricks played 6 seasons for the Eagles from 2012-2017 including winning a Super Bowl with him in Super Bowl LII.

2020 Pro Bowlers

Eagles	Seahawks
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)	QB Russel Wilson (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)	MLB Bobby Wagner (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)

Recap from Last Week 17’s Games.
Eagles
Video
With the division on the line, the Eagles controlled their own destiny as they took on the division rival New York Giants on the road. The Eagles were already short and then they lost running back Miles Sanders and three-time Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Brooks in the first half. But Scott, Josh Perkins, Greg Ward, Deontay Burnett and Robert Davis combined for 16 catches on 25 targets, 225 yards receiving, 54 yards rushing and four TDs. The five players were cut a combined eight times by four teams since Aug. 31. But Carson Wentz got the most out of them as he lead the Eagles to their 4th must win game in a row beating the Giants 34-17.
Seahawks
Video
The Seahawks were playing for the division title against the 49ers in week 17 with a playoff spot already locked in for both teams. In the first half, the 49ers dominated, taking a 13–0 halftime lead aided by a Deebo Samuel 30-yard touchdown run on a pitch and catch. The 49ers also held Seattle to just 79 yards of total offense, including stuffing running back Marshawn Lynch on 4th and inches from the 49ers 31-yard line, causing a turnover on downs. In the second half, the Seahawks proved resilient, scoring multiple times. The Seahawks would never lead in this game however, as the 49ers countered every Seahawks score with one of their own, including a Raheem Mostert 13-yard touchdown run to make it 26–14 with 5:51 left. After Seattle cut the lead to five, a questionable personal foul call against Ben Garland forced a punt, giving them the ball back with 2:27 left. They marched all the way down to the 49ers 1-yard line, but a delay of game penalty pushed them back to the 6-yard line. After three incomplete passes, the Seahawks faced 4th and goal. Russell Wilson hit receiver Jacob Hollister with a pass to the 49ers 1-yard line, but Hollister was stopped inches short of the goal line by linebacker Dre Greenlaw, causing a turnover on downs with nine seconds left that sealed the victory.

General
Referee: Shawn Smith
Including playoffs, Philadelphia has the 2nd-best home winning percentage (.735, 25-9) in the NFL since 2016, trailing only New England (.838, 31-6).
In Week 17, the Eagles totaled 400+ yards for the 4th consecutive game, which is Eagles the longest stretch of 400+ yards since 2013 (6 games).
The Eagles captured their 2nd division title in the last three seasons and 3rd consecutive postseason berth (2017-19).
Philadelphia owns the No. 4 seed in the NFC Playoffs heading into Wild Card Weekend (Jan. 4-5, 2020).
Doug Pederson is the first Eagles head coach to lead his team to three straight postseason appearances since Andy Reid from 2008-10.
Philadelphia has made the playoffs in three-or-more consecutive seasons for the 6th time in team history.
The Eagles have earned a postseason berth for the 27th time in franchise history (since 1933).
Since 2000, Philadelphia is tied for the 4th-most playoff appearances (13) in the NFL, behind New England (17), Green Bay (14) and Indianapolis (14).
The Eagles are NFC East Champions for the 11th time in franchise history.
Philadelphia’s nine NFC East championships since 2001 are the most in the division, ahead of Dallas (5), N.Y. Giants (3) and Washington (2)

Draft Picks

Eagles	Seahawks
OT Andre Dillard	DE L.J. Collier
RB Miles Sanders	S Marquise Blair
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside	WR DK Metcalf
WR Shareff Miller	LB Cody Barton
QB Clayton Thorson	WR Gary Jennings Jr.
	G Phil Hayes
	CB Ugo Amadi
	LB Ben Burr-Kirven
	RB Travis Homer
	DT Demarcus Christmas
	WR John Ursua

Notable Off-season Additions

Eagles	Seahawks
WR Desean Jackson	DE Jadeveon Clowney
DT Malik Jackson	DE Ziggy Ansah
DE Vinny Curry	DT Al Woods
DT Hassan Ridgeway	WR Josh Gordon
QB Josh McCown	QB Geno Smith
	G Mike Iupati
	K Jason Myers
	FB Nick Bellore

Notable Off-season Departures

Eagles	Seahawks
QB “Big Dick” Nick Foles	FS Earl Thomas
DE Michael Bennett	SS Kam Chancellor
DE Chris Long	WR Doug Baldwin
S Chris Maragos	WR Paul Richardson
RB Jay Ajayi	DE Frank Clark
RB Josh Adams	K Sebastian Janikowski
RB Wendell Smallwood	G J.R. Sweezy
DT Haloti Ngata	CB Justin Coleman
	DT Shamar Stephen
	SS Maurice Alexander
	QB Brett Hundley

Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (join.profootballfocus.com/edge/)
WDB Matchups (CAPS = expected shadow coverage)

Stats to Know
Russell Wilson’s Deep Ball
The Eagles have not been great at defending the deep ball. Russell Wilson is good at the deep ball. I should just leave it at that, but that’s not what you’re here for. In 2019, Wilson’s averaging the 2nd-highest percentage of total throws targeting 20+ yards downfield (16.5%). Over the previous 3 seasons, Wilson has been 3rd, 2nd, and 8th. His Adjusted Completion % (accounting for drops) is 48.2%, good for 8th. His Passer Rating on Deep Balls is 119.2, good for 4th.

Matchups to Watch
Seahawks Pass Defense vs. the Eagles Pass Offense
Well, now the Eagles are in the playoffs after this tumultuous season. Anything can happen with this team, whether it's one and done or a Super Bowl run. Before we can all think about the future of this postseason, the Eagles need to get by a tough opponent in the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll's Seattle teams, with or without Wilson, has owned the Eagles. That extended into this season with the Seahawks winning an ugly game against the then hapless Eagles. A lot has changed for Philly since then, mainly their success through the air. The Nobodies have stepped up to help Carson eLeVaTe the passing offense as he nearly averaged 300 yard passing per game in the final 4 weeks of the season. Carson has played really well and the coaches stepped up big to help get the passing game going. Their game plan can't, and won't, be a repeat of their early "death by one thousand slant/flats" if they want to win. And the offense can't turn the ball over at the rate they did if they expect to win. This is an athletic pass defense with two great LBs that excel in coverage. The Eagles will need to continue to move the pocket for Wentz to extend the time to throw which will allow deeper shots to open up. Due to personnel, this isn't an offense that can rely on its skill position players to consistently win 1v1. They'll need to continue to be creative in their usage of screens to prevent the defense form keying on them again. If Zach Ertz is able to play, that would be a huge win for the Eagles as he is their best natural separator. Seattle is an easy defense to scheme for as there is very little they change on a week to week basis. It's just being able to hit on the plays they scheme up. One injury for the Seahawks that important to watch is the status of safety Quandre Diggs; he was acquired from the Lions on the cheap (for some reason) and is a key player in their coverage schemes. As of now, the Seahawks should be expecting him to go as he was a full participant in their latest practice report. Either way, this is the 15th ranked passing defense by DVOA. They can be beat through the air. It would be wise for them to build off the game plan the Niners used last week to win in Seattle.
Seahawks Run Defense vs Eagles Running Backs
Philly wasn't able to have a lot of success on the ground the last time they played for a number of reasons. One big reason for that was the injuries on the offensive line - which remains the same for the rematch. Lane Johnson's status for Sunday is still unknown and stud Guard Brandon Brooks landed on IR after the week 17 win against the Giants. The backups have played decently well in reliefof the two key linemen but their absence will always loom large. The variety of concepts the Eagles use in the run game is a big factor in its success as it keeps opposing defenses off-balance. Being down Brooks and Lane could hinder what the Eagles like to do if their replacements can't adequately step up. Moreover, Sanders sustained an injury last week (ankle) and should play, but his effectiveness really won't be known until game time. Since the bye, Sanders has stepped up in a big way when Jordan Howard's shoulder died. Sanders proved he is a capable receiver and pass blocker early on but really improved his ability as a runner very quickly when the team needed him the most. If he is able to be effective on Sunday, that would be a huge boost to the undermanned Philly offense. Additionally, Boston Scott has continued to step up for the Eagles when they need him the most. Scott doesn't profile as an every down back but was able to take that role last week when Sanders left the game. His ability to consistently find the open rush lanes has been paramount to his success. Like Sanders, when Scott is able to get the ball in space he is able to create chunk plays to move the sticks. Jordan Howard returned to the line up last week; while he only played one snap, his ability to now play should help the Eagles rushing attack. This Seattle defensive line is a weak unit that is missing key players. Jadeveon Clowney has been banged up for most of the season and his status for Sunday is questionable. His absence would be a huge boost for the Eagles. This Seattle rushing defense is 26th in DVOA; if the Eagles offensive line was 100% heading into Sunday, this would be the single biggest mismatch in this contest. As it stands now, the Eagles should have enough in their reserves to be effective against this front, but that is a risky bet. They weren't effective in their first meeting - they need to change that to win.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks Receivers vs the Eagles Secondary
Russell Wilson has owned the Eagles in his career but will be entering Sunday's contest off his worst performance against this team in his career. He was sacked 6 times and was generally inaccurate for most of the game. He struggled to pick up some of the coverage changes the Eagles implemented in their secondary and lead to below average play. He's still Russell Wilson and this is still the Eagles pass defense: you simply cannot bet on the Eagles secondary anymore. Wilson has been a top 2 QB this year in an MVP caliber year carrying the Seahawks to this point in the season. There are very few instances in his time with the Seahawks where the Seahawks are down by double-digits late in a game. This is an Eagles secondary that struggles to stop the big play and cover outside receivers - the Seahawks have two dangerous weapons outside. The Eagles should have everyones favorite terrible CB back for this contest... Jalen Mills. The starter opposite him will be a mystery. Since his early season benching, Sidney Jones has been absolutely clutch for the Eagles on their current run. While his play hasn't been perfect, he's been less of a disaster than he previously was. Avonte Maddox and Cre'von Leblanc are fresh off really good performances against the Giants. If I had to guess, Maddox will start outside and Leblanc will see the slot; Jones would work into the rotation in more CB heavy looks. As previously mentioned, not only was Russ generally inaccurate in the first meeting, his receivers had a lot of key drops as well. Here is a big gain dropped by DK Metcalf. How about this dropped TD by DK Metcalf? Or this bricked layup TD pass from Wilson? My point is this: I generally think the Eagles pass defense, namely the secondary, has been more lucky than good in the second half of the season en route to an NFCE title. They are still here, which is awesome, but until they actually clean up their games it's hard to bet on them succeeding. Russ is one of the best passers in the league; it doesn't matter if he is scrambling or in the pocket, he'll generally eat you alive. This is a WR group, especially with Lockett and Metcalf, that will make defenses pay. They didn't last time, I don't think the Eagles will be so lucky this time. If I'm the Seahawks, I throw early and often. The Eagles defensive ranks against outside WRs: Yards allowed: 32nd, Explosive receptions: 29th, TDs: 29th, Yards per target: 27th. If Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer maintain status quo, like they do for some inexplicable reason, the Eagles have a real chance.
**Seahawks Decimated Offensive Line vs Eagles Pass Rush
The biggest aid to a struggling secondary is a strong pass rush. This is the foundation of the Eagles defense. While it isn't the stupid good group from the Super Bowl, it is still one of the best units in the league in getting pressure. Seattle has had bad offensive lines for years now and the group that'll start on Sunday fits that mold. Stud LT Duane Brown should miss this contest with a knee issue; this is a bad injury for the Seahawks as he is their best offensive lineman. The rest of their group is a well-below average unit that struggles in pass protection. The Eagles were able to get after Russell Wilson with 6 sacks in the first meeting and will need that kind of pressure again. Wilson can still make plays with his arm and legs while under pressure but it's still a difficult task for him. Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham will need to continue to create havoc in the trenches. Derek Barnett must continue to build off his strong outing against the Giants. And if Timmy Jernigan can continue to play well, instead of up and down, then the Eagles should be able to get after Russ like they did Daniel Jones one week ago. The Eagles need to put this Seattle offense in bad situations to help out the secondary and help force some turnovers.

Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.