The last few days have been basically a constant stream of messages asking me when I would post my survivor pick. Well the answer is now.
In case you're new to these posts, I'm going to lead with the basic explanation, and have my picks at the bottom. For all weeks going forward, I'll have picks first, than the nerdy stuff.
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What is this?
SurvivoEliminator is a type of fantasy football game where you pick a single team to win each week. Each team is only allowed to be picked once per season. Once a team you pick loses, you've been eliminated until next season. The game ends at the end of the regular season, or when there is only one person left.
My weekly posts dive into who you should pick each week based on a purely mathematical perspective.
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Methodology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
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Download
Last year I got a lot of "well what if I have to pick multiple teams in week X?" or "What if my league, you have to pick only losers?" or "What about team A, B, or C this week?"
I tried to make the file as all encompassing as possible, so if your survivor league has some weird quark or wrinkle in it download the file and give it a shot. If the file still doesn't answer your question, let me know and I might add the feature in.
You can download the file here from Mediafire
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Week 1 suggestions
The top picks this week are the Bills and Patriots.
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Rank	Team	P(Win this week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	BUF	73%	0.8%	12.82
2	NE	73%	0.8%	12.82
3	IND	77%	0.7%	12.77
4	PIT	71%	0.7%	12.74

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Full Season Outlook
The beauty of this model is that it looks at the entire season as a whole. Assuming you pick the Bills this week, this is what the rest of the season's picks would look like based on what we know right now.
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Week	Team	P(Win)
1	BUF	73%
2	TEN	76%
3	CLE	71%
4	LAR	72%
5	BAL	84%
6	IND	73%
7	NO	81%
8	TB	70%
9	KC	82%
10	GB	77%
11	PIT	71%
12	DAL	79%
13	MIN	76%
14	SF	83%
15	SEA	68%
16	HOU	70%
17	PHI	77%

This early in the season there is a lot unknown about the quality of different teams, as things start to work their way out expect some of those P(Win) numbers to increase.
Disclaimer
In case you aren't familiar with the notation, there is indeed a 0.8% chance of going the whole season undefeated. There are too many games and too many quality teams to reliably run deep every season. Last season I only made it to week 5 undefeated when a 2-2 Colts beat the 4-0 Chiefs at Arrowhead while being 10.5 point underdogs. These things happen, so don't blame me when I get a pick wrong.
Out of 17 weeks I only expect to get 13 games right. In the end, it's your team/league so pick who you like no matter what my algorithm says.

What are the best teasers to play? We're looking at a strategy introduced by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong. He noticed that many pro football games end with a 3 or 7 point margin, so we want to play teasers that go through these numbers to give us the best chance.
Specifically, our methodology is:

• For 6-point teasers, take the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3;
• For 6-point teasers, take the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9;
• For 10-point teasers, take the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½ (but not +3);
• Don't take 10-point teasers on favorites.

There's been some debate over whether teasing the underdog at exactly +3 is a good play. Some people also offer the advice to pay attention to home/road splits or the total of the game. But after looking at the results over the last three years, my opinions are to include +3 and not fret about home/total.
How much does a teaser bet pay? Each book is allowed to select their own payout odds. Once upon a time, -110 used to be the standard payout but nowadays about -120 or -130 appear to be at or near the norm.

Teams	Points	Payout
2	6	-120
3	10	-130

According to the listed payouts in the chart above, we would need to hit 73.9% of the 6-point legs individually to break even. That threshold is 82.7% for 10-point legs. Your mileage will vary depending on what your book says.
Will following this strategy definitely mean I make money? No! Right now, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy in 2020. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable.
I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits.
What were the results in Week 1 this year? I'm using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. (You can use sbrodds.com to verify I'm being honest about what the closing numbers were.) These were the games and results in Week 1 this year:

Off-the-board	6 pt	10 pt
Carolina +3	Win
Chicago +2	Win	Win
Cincinnati +3	Win
Denver +3	Win
Green Bay +1½	Win	Win
Baltimore -7½	Win
Indianapolis -7½	Loss
Kansas City -9	Win
New England -7½	Win

What percentage of teaser legs have hit in the past? Remember that we're looking for 73.9% hit probability on 6-point teasers and 82.7% hit probability on 10-point teasers just to break even. If we are looking for a truly plus-EV strategy, our hit probabilities will have to exceed these numbers.

Teaser	Year	Team	Record	Actual	Target
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%	73.9%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%	73.9%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.4%	73.9%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	5-0	100.0%	73.9%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%	73.9%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%	73.9%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%	73.9%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	3-1	75.0%	73.9%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%	82.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%	82.7%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%	82.7%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	2-0	100.0%	82.7%

What's a Round Robin bet? A teaser bet requires you to put 2 (or more) teams onto a single ticket. But how do you know which team to group with which team?
One way to do this is to make a "Round Robin" bet. A Round Robin bet is when you tell your book that you like these 9 teams and that you wish to bet every combination possible. There's 36 different ways to choose 2 teams out of 9, so that's 36 different bets. If you had bet 1.2 units (to win 1.0) for each of the 36 different bets last week, you would've had 28 winning bets and 8 losing bets. Week 1 this year would have returned a profit of +18.4 units.
If your book doesn't have an option to construct this Round Robin bet with one easy click, you could manually try to construct a similar situation. Individually punching in 36 different tickets manually might be obnoxious but you should still try to play every team at least a couple of times, paired with a different team each time.
For example, group Chicago with Indy on one ticket and then group Chicago with Carolina on a separate ticket. This way, you still reap partial rewards for Chicago's win even though Indy didn't do their part.
What are the Week 2 plays being tracked? As of the time of this post, these would be the Wong plays for this week.

• Minnesota +3
• Baltimore -7½
• Kansas City -9
• Tampa Bay -8
• Tennessee -7½

⚠️ Proceed with caution on Wong favorites. Since 2017, underdogs have been more reliable.
I emphasize that the list above is unofficial because the determining factor is closing line at Bovada. (You can check them at sbrodds.com.) If the line moves between the time of this post and kickoff of the game, you might see some games fall off of this list or some games be added to this list.

What is a teaser? For those unaware, teasers are a special type of bet that most books will allow on basketball and football games. There's multiple games on your teaser ticket sort of like a parlay, but the key difference is that you're moving the line several points in your favor. For example, the Chiefs are favored by 9½ tonight but you might be able to get them at -3½ on your teaser ticket.
How much does a teaser bet pay? It varies by book. There used to be a time when 2-team, 6-point teasers on pro football paid at -110 odds. Unfortunately, it seems like -120 is more common to see these days. (Payouts will also differ based on the number of teams and points, but my focus is on 6-points.)
Are all teasers equal? Certainly not. Notice that many football games end with a final score margin of between 3 and 7 points. For example in the NFL last year, 101 games out of 267 (37.8%) ended with a margin of 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 points.

Margin	Frequency
0 points	1 game
1	11
2	12
3	27
4	12
5	10
6	20
7	32
8	12
9	1
10	15
11	6
12	2
13	6
14	13
15	4
16	9
17	12
18	11
19	1
20	7
21	8

Teasers that go through these frequent final margins are a better bet.
Blackjack expert Stanford Wong suggested a strategy for playing teasers that said to only play underdogs of +1½, +2, or +2½ points (teased up to +7½, +8, or +8½) and favorites of -7½, -8, or -8½ (teased down to -1½, -2, or -2½). These so-called Wong teasers have had a 100-37 record in the last three years in the NFL.
In comparison, teasers that go through zero (e.g., teasing -3 down to +3) have had a 76-64 record.
Is that good? A 100-37 record is a 73.0% win percentage. If the teasers paid -110, then the threshold required to break even would be 72.4%. At -120, the threshold required to break even is 73.9%. In either case, the percentages are too close to say we've found a definitive pattern.
Can we get better? A hot topic among Wong bettors is whether or not to bet underdogs of +3 points (up to +9). Let's break down the data even further and look at how the bets performed at each spread.

Bet	Record
+1½ → +7½	30-7	81.1%
+2 → +8	19-10	65.5%
+2½ → +8½	10-3	76.9%
+3 → +9	117-38	75.5%
-7½ → -1½	30-8	78.9%
-8 → -2	10-7	58.8%
-8½ → -2½	1-2	33.3%
-9 → -3	18-9	67.7%

In the last three years, it seems like the underdog +3 has been a good bet and that underdogs in general have been pulling their weight better than favorites.
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

Does it matter who is at home? There's some people that tell you not to tease road favorites, but the data hasn't shown that to be good advice in the last three years.

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Road dogs +1½ thru +3	99-28	78.0%
Home dogs +1½ thru +3	77-30	72.0%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Road favs -7½ thru -9	17-6	73.9%
Home favs -7½ thru -9	42-20	67.7%

So what does this all mean? Honestly, I'm not sure. Right now, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy in 2020. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable.
I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits. I'll be including underdog +3 in my tracking, so it probably makes sense to track favorite -9 as well.
What are the Week 1 plays being tracked? I'll be using Bovada's closing number as the determining factor in whether it counts in my tracking or not.
As of the time of this post, the Chiefs are -9½ tonight. If they come down to -9 by kickoff, it counts in my tracking. Otherwise, it doesn't.
As far as Sunday and Monday games go, these are the plays that will be tracked according to the lines as of the time of this post. However, the final list may be slightly different since I'm using the closing number as the determining factor.

• Carolina +3 → +9
• Atlanta +2½ → +8½
• Chicago +3 → +9
• Green Bay +2½ → +8½
• Cincinnati +3 → +9
• LA Rams +3 → +9
• Denver +2½ → +8½
• Baltimore -8 → -2
• Indianapolis -8 → -2

After last season/the Bears loss/the Packers loss, it’s become clear to all of us that the 2020 Lions are a completely unsalvageable pit of despair from which there is no escape.
Patricia should have been fired at the 50 yard line of Lambeau and then beheaded for his crimes against humanity.
Quin should be exiled from the land by a pack of ravenous hounds that chase him back east across Lake Huron.
Hopefully Stafford can catch a ride on a ship to the Undying Lands and get a fat contract from a QB-needy team before he retires. Killing Barry and Calvin AND Stafford is more than I can handle as a fan, let somebody be happy for the love of god.
That said, what to do for the rest of the 2020 season? Time to pick a team to bandwagon! It’s important to pick a good bandwagon team now if you want to have a chance at riding another team’s coattails all the way to the playoffs. Let’s go through the list (by last week’s power ranking) and discuss.
The Top 5
Here’s where you go for your best bet at sure-fire contenders. This section is for bandwagoners who want to see their team go to the Super Bowl in order to get some semblance of the shine of the Lombardi trophy on your face, even if you know in your heart you cheated to get there by becoming an imposter in the fanbase of a foreign team from foreign lands.

1. Chiefs – Last year’s super bowl winners with the new hotness Patrick Mahomes at QB and lovable BBQ-eating Andy Reid at HC, plus Travis Kelce. Historic underdogs finally having their moment in the sun is a perfect fit for a Lions fan to root for. This is bandwagoning on easy mode, the clear pick in my opinion. Number one in the rankings, number one in my cold dead 2020 heart.
2. Ravens – The only better pick than the Chiefs is the Ravens. Lamar Jackson playing QB is probably the most fun thing you can watch on television right now period. I bandwagoned the Ravens all through last season while dreaming that Stafford’s back healing up might make a difference in 2020 (oh how young and naïve I was) and it was a great time! They imploded a little bit in the playoffs but hey, this could be their year!
3. Seahawks – This is a nice pick for some history, familiarity, and stability. The Seahawks are always in it as long as they have Russ and Pete Carroll, and last night we watched them go 2-0 against the Pats in a serious nail-biter finish. You know you’re at least going on a deep playoff run if you bandwagon the Seahawks.
4. Saints – Watching Brees continue to cement himself as a top all-time QB, potentially in his final year, with an actual defense, Michael Thomas, and Kamara? It’s sure to be a fun ride! Plus, the Saints are another team that knows a lot about long droughts of success, hanging around the bottom of the league, kicked while they’re down, nobody ever believing in them. They’re soul mates in pain, and it’s fun to watch those teams succeed.
5. Packers – No. Never.

The Middle of the Pack
So you’re not looking for a sure thing, you’re interested in a bumpier bandwagon ride. The middle of the pack of is for you! These teams will have ups and they’ll have downs, and if they make it to the Super Bowl, or even the deep playoffs, the victory will be all the sweeter.

1. 49ers – After Sunday I believe every single player on the 49ers has a torn ACL or something like that, but hey, they made it to the SB last year and they could do it again! 49ers are historic and who doesn’t like to root for a classic franchise?
2. Bills – A true sister-ship team of the Lions. Forever frustrated and disappointed fans now getting their chance to root for a QB who throws over 400. I like Josh Allen because to hear his bio it really sounds like he just found himself in the NFL by accident and is somehow pulling it off. Plus now he’s got Stefon Diggs, who is no longer our divisional problem. Classic underdog pick, go Bills.
3. Steelers – Roethlisberger is back, JuJu is great, and the Steelers are always in it. If you want that authentic “we’re more blue collar than you” experience, Steelers are a solid pick. Bonus: revisit the days of Ebron and watch him brick-hand pass after pass, and feel some semblance of relief that out of all the problems the Lions have this year, he’s not one of them.
4. Titans – A great pick for the Lions fan who wants a long-shot with good odds. If Tannehill keeps his breakout alive and Derrick Henry keeps trucking people, they’re a tough team to stop. Plus now they have Clowney (how could Patricia not go after Clowney Jesus Christ are you kidding me he had a chance to grab an elite DE in free agency and shore up in pathetic pass rushers and we didn’t even hear about him trying to land him how fucking pathetic can you believe this guy… wait no don’t think about that!) Titans are a sleeper for the SB and I think they’ll continue to surprise everybody this year.
5. Patriots – No Brady, no problem. Patriots still look great as always, plus Cam Newton is way more fun to root for than Brady ever was. Watch Belichik potentially use his evil powers for good and get Cam a ring. Patriots can feel dirty to root for but it’s also like eating a whole chocolate cake after you’ve been on a years-long diet. Sometimes it feels good just to give in.
6. Rams – This is the team you want to root for if you’re a big NFL conspiracy theorist and think hidden capitalists are pulling the strings behind the scenes to rig games. “The NFL wants LA to succeed because it’s a huge and largely untapped market of a city. For that to work, either the Rams or the Chargers have to go deep every year until LA is turning out their pockets for that sweet football merch.” Maybe it’s true, maybe not, maybe who cares! Also a great team to watch if you want to see Aaron Donald wreck people every single play. Remember, Donald could have been ours but instead we drafted Ebron. I’m just kidding, I know you didn’t forget. How could you?
7. Cardinals – Kyler “Calamari” Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald pulling this team out of the depths and into something respectable would be a fun ride to watch. Another franchise with historic pain, a dark horse long-shot, it speaks to my Detroit-hardened heart.
8. Cowboys – Rooting Cowboys is like going after the dumb hot girl. She’s not going to amount to much but she sure does get a lot of attention. If you want to watch a lot of primetime games and hear about your bandwagon team in sports media constantly, may as well pick the Boys. Win, lose or draw, for some reason we all have to talk about them all the time. Also, it’s fun to root for Kellen Moore, and it’s fun to watch Zeke be a wrecking ball. Successful run game teams actually exist!
9. Vikings – Ew. I guess. Kirk Cousins can play football and Dalvin Cook is a running back. Riley Reiff used to live here. Kyle Rudolph has a fun name if you’re a big Christmas person. I don’t know. This seems like a pointless bandwagon unless you really like the color purple.
10. Buccaneers – Never count Brady out. Love him or hate him (hate him) Brady is historic and worth watching. If you want to watch Belichick-less Brady in his final year(s), reunited with Gronkowski, tearing up the ground with Fournette, this is a solid band wagon pick.
11. Texans – Another great fit for the Lions: watch an incredibly talented QB get hamstrung by his incompetent coaching staff and wasted in his scheme, all while his good-on-paper defense continues to let him down on the field. JJ Watt is still fun to watch, and moreso if you close your eyes and pretend is 2013 and we all still love him.

The Bottom Half
Bandwagoning to win is for pussies, you’re here to bandwagon a team that is either an extra-super long-shot, or another team with no chance to pair with your Lions heartbreak. You sick son of a bitch, I respect it, but I don’t think it’s good for you.

1. Eagles – Good pick for It’s Always Sunny fans who want to root for Jim Schwartz.
   
2. Raiders – Cool uniforms, cool fans, another chance at an NFL conspiracy team due to the move to Vegas
   
3. Falcons – If you can’t watch Stafford succeed, you may as well watch his buddy Matt Ryan also not succeed.
   
4. Bears – Chicago is cool and nearby, and the Bears haven’t been successful in a long time, so it doesn’t feel completely gross. Any win they can get with Trubisky at the helm they damn sure deserve.
   
5. Chargers – Actually looked legit good against the Chiefs with their new QB Justin Herbert, plus you got Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram on defense. This is probably as far down the list as you can go and find an actual contender. This is your longest long shot for the true masochist who still wants hope involved.
   
6. Broncos – Good pick for big South Park fans. Also I guess if you’re still high on Von Miller.
   
7. Colts – Their colors are similar to ours and Indiana is pretty close. This strikes me as a particularly hopeless bandwagon pick, but they do have a running back, which could be fun to watch.
   
8. Jaguars – Minshew Mania makes this a solid pick. Plus it’s another cat team.
   
9. Washington – Chase Young, oh what could have been.
   
10. Lions – "Bandwagon? Bandwagon?! We don't need no stinking bandwagon!" Ride or die motherfucker, it's Lions Only for your fandom. You're a captain going down with the ship, you're gonna sit here and watch Patricia waste another year of Stafford's career, fail at the run game, fail to adjust, fail on defense, fail at everything all season long. Because when we go 0-16 again, you'll be able to look back and say you were there. You'll bear witness to our heroic Tank for Trevor Lawrence, and the pride that comes before the fall of the house of Quintricia. And when we see flashes of greatness from Stafford, 100 yard rushers from AD, interceptions from Okudah, and long-yard FGs from Prater, you'll be there to cheer on the Lions as always. Win or lose, rain or shine, Detroit vs. Everybody.
    
11. Bengals – Root for Joe Burrow. Plus it’s another cat team.
    
12. Panthers – Blue cat team.
    
13. Dolphins – Tank for Tua actually happened and honestly good for them. Plus a little dose of Fitzmagic in your life.
    
14. Giants – Daniel Jones is an Eli clone and honestly that kind of science should be studied. Might be worth checking out.
    
15. Browns – Great pick if you’re done with the Lions but don’t want to improve through bandwagoning in any way shape or form. A true historic and present lateral move, a decision forged in Midwest hopelessness and gallons of beer. Godspeed to anyone choosing to bandwagon the Browns this season.
    
16. Jets – The "just let the pain flow through me" option.
    

Comments analysis after 24 hours
The names I'm seeing the most after 24 hours and 48 comments are Seattle, Buffalo, Arizona, and Chargers. So 3 outta 4 you guys are goddamn gluttons for punishment! Lions fans through and through, you won't even bandwagon a sure thing, it's gotta be a long-shot underdog story of a long-suffering franchise that MIGHT have some success this year. Goddamn, never change guys.

I'm sure there are plenty of these threads already but I've been following NFL betting pretty closely for the past few years now and want to start posting my own picks. I will post on Friday weekly and give you my 5 favorite picks of the week with an explanation including stats, trends, and my general observations. All spreads are from draftkings. Without further ado my Week 3 picks.
MIN -2.5 (0-2) TEN +2.5 (2-0) O/U 49.5
MY PICK: MIN S/U
I like the Vikings as a home underdog this week, but with the spread at 2.5 they are a better value on the money line but if you can get them at 3 or 3.5 take the points for a little insurance. The Titans defense looked terrible last week against a pedestrian Jags offense and I think the Vikings defense is a little bit better than they've shown thus far. Since 2014 teams that are 0-2 are 29-16 ATS (64.4%) in Week 3. The Vikings are also 16-3-1 ATS at home after a S/U loss since Mike Zimmer took over as coach.
WAS +7.5 (1-1) @ CLE -7.5 (1-1) O/U 45
MY PICK: WAS +7.5
The Washington defense is #1 in the NFL according to Pro Football Outsiders based on DVOA. Their pass rush leads the league in sacks with 11 and is second in adjusted sack rate at 13.5%. While the Browns offense relied heavily on the run in Week 2 and looked better for it, I think Washington forces at least a couple of turnovers by Baker Mayfield and at least keeps it close.
CIN +4.5 (0-2) @ PHI -4.5 (0-2) O/U 47
MY PICK: PHI -4.5
It took Joe Burrow 61 passes to reach 300 yards and the Bengals defense will be down Geno Atkins most likely. I just think the Eagles are a much better team than we've seen the first two weeks and will use the Bengals as a "get right game" and get their season on track.
DAL +5 (1-1) @ SEA -5 (2-0) O/U 57
MY PICK: DAL +5
Dallas is 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games as an underdog. I think Dak feasts on a Seahawks secondary that has given up 831 passing yards through 2 weeks which is the most in the NFL. Dallas could win this game straight up, but at the very least keeps it close in a shootout.
DET +5.5 (0-2) @ ARI -5.5 (2-0) O/U 55.5
MY PICK: ARI -5.5
The Lions defense is 31st overall and 24th against the pass according to Football Outsiders going up against a Cardinals Offense that is 6th in the NFL so far in total offense. Since 2017 teams that are playing their 2nd home game in a row vs. teams playing their 2nd road game in a row are 21-6 ATS when favored by 1-10 pts and 24-13 overall.
Happy Betting Ladies and Gentleman.
Update: Jesus what a fucking a bloodbath that was. Probably couldn’t have actually gone 0-5 if I tried but I managed somehow. Could have very easily been 5-0 but that’s how it goes. I’ll still be back next Friday with more picks.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! How great was it to finally have football back last weekend? The NFL season’s opening week went off without a hitch (assuming you didn’t have Mike Evans or Michael Thomas on your team), and hopefully you managed to get off to a 1-0 start. The rookies got off to an interesting start and plenty of them acquitted themselves well considering they didn’t get to play any preseason games. In a reversal of expected roles Jonathan Taylor put on a show as a receiver out of the backfield but struggled as a runner, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had an impressive debut running between the tackles but didn’t catch a single pass. Both should be every-week starters going forward. Laviska Shenault, Joshua Kelley and Zack Moss all got in the end zone in week 1, and D’Andre Swift nearly did as well. Some other rookies like Michael Pittman, Cam Akers and Bryan Edwards had less successful debuts. Overall, we now have a much better picture of how these guys are going to be deployed and should have a better handle on which ones to consider for your lineups. Let’s dive into week 2…
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Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 2: @ LAC): Obviously you don’t need me to tell you to start CEH if you have him. He was fantastic as a runner in week 1 and made people who drafted him feel great about that decision. It was strange to see him do so much of his work running between the tackles though. It would have been nice to see him catch a few passes, and it would’ve been nice to see him cash in one of his 6 carries from the 3-yard line or closer for a TD (4 carries from the 1), but overall it was a strong debut and the fact that he got 6 carries in close should be seen as a good thing. Houston’s D-line dominated in those short yardage situations, but not every defense KC faces will do the same. The Chiefs are comfortably favored in week 2 and face a defense that ranked 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat last season. I’d also expect the team to make an effort to get CEH more involved in the passing game, even if only to prove a point. Edwards-Helaire is a fine play in all DFS formats as well as a locked-in RB1 for season-long leagues this week.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): Like CEH, you don’t need me to tell you to start Taylor. He didn’t really fill up the stat sheet as a runner last week (9 carries for 22 yards), but Philip Rivers utilized him a bunch in the passing game (6-67 on 6 targets). With Marlon Mack going down for the year, this backfield figures to be a 2-man tandem with Taylor and Hines. Taylor should dominate the early down work, and while the matchup against the Vikings isn’t that favorable – they allowed the 12th-fewest RB points per game last year, Taylor will see plenty of volume to make him a solid RB2 this week. With a price tag of just $5,700 on DraftKings, I would expect you’ll see Taylor in a high percentage of DFS cash game lineups this week.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 2: @ Hou): I know starting a backup running back in week 2 is a risky proposition. I list Dobbins here just to emphasize how much I like his matchup this week. Houston had a bottom half run defense a year ago and looked overmatched in the opener by CEH and the Chiefs run game (at least away from the goal line). Baltimore is a touchdown favorite this weekend, and I expect them to win the game easily. Houston just didn’t look right in week one, and I don’t think the Ravens are the antidote to what ails them. Dobbins already looked better than Mark Ingram in the opener, and I expect him to get plenty of run as the Ravens open up the lead. This may be me getting ahead of myself on Dobbins, but I like him to go for 80+ yards and a score in this one and finish as an RB2. The Ravens have the highest projected point total of the week at 29.25,
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. Atl.): The Falcons have had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL for two years running, and they looked as bad as ever in week 1 against Seattle. Russ Wilson can make a lot of defenses look bad, but the Falcons’ pass defense looked non-existent. This game figures to be a shoot-out with Dallas’ implied total of 28.5, so all 3 Cowboy receivers are in play, especially with tight end Blake Jarwin done for the year. It appeared that Dak was force-feeding the ball to Amari last Sunday, but I’d expect the targets to be more evenly divided in this one. Zeke Elliott should have a big game as well, but we could see all 3 Dallas receivers end up as top-30 WRs this week. Lamb was targeted 6 times in the opener. I’d expect that number to be higher in this one.
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Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 2: @ Cle): Burrow is only worth considering in 2-quarterback or Superflex formats, but this should be a better matchup for him than the Chargers. The Browns ranked just 18th in pass defense DVOA last season and were absolutely shredded by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in week 1. Burrow proved that he’s capable of running the ball himself a bit in the opener, and only Cincinnati allowed more QB rushing yards in 2019 than the Browns. The Vegas sharps don’t expect a big output from Cincy’s offense, giving them an implied total of just 18.75 points, but I think they overperform in this one. I like Burrow’s chances at a top-15 week.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 2: @ Ten): Robinson’s performance and usage in week 1 may have been even more of a surprise than the outcome of the game. The Jaguars were heavy underdogs and came out with a win, and they may have found their feature back in the process. Most people expected a heavy dose of Chris Thompson on passing downs, but Thompson played just 12 snaps to Robinson’s 36. The Jaguars are heavy underdogs again this week, so temper expectations a bit, but this matchup has about the same degree of difficulty for Robinson as the last one with Indy. Robinson will be heavily involved and should be a solid RB3 this week.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 2: @ GB): Week one did not end on a high note for Swift, as he dropped what would’ve been a game-winning touchdown pass in the closing seconds as the Lions blew a 17-point lead in losing to the Bears. Here’s the positive – Swift led the Lions running backs in snaps, playing 10 more than Adrian Peterson and 14 more than Kerryon Johnson. He was battling an injury in practice last week and still was on the field a lot. You’d like to see more production come out of those snaps, but that should be coming. Green Bay fielded one of the worst run defenses in the NFL a year ago, and while AP still figures to see a lot of the rushing load, I’d count on Swift being more involved in this one as he gets closer to health. He’ll be a boom-or-bust upside flex option this week with more value in PPR formats.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia): Moss didn’t pile up a lot of yards in week 1 (27 yards on 12 touches), but his usage is encouraging for fantasy players. He was targeted 4 times in the passing game, and 8 of his 12 touches came in the red zone with one of them ending in a touchdown. The other half of the Bills’ backfield duo, Devin Singletary, had zero red zone touches among his 9 carries and 5 catches. Moss was on the field for the vast majority of red zone snaps. Miami gave up 1.2 running back scores per game a year ago and gave up another one in the opener this year. Moss is a solid bet to score a touchdown for the second straight week, which gives him some flex appeal in most formats. The Dolphins ranked 29th in run defense DVOA last season, and were 32nd in that stat in week 1.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 2: @ NYJ): Aiyuk looks likely to return this week, and he’ll do so in a matchup against one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Jets do have a stout run defense up front, but they can’t cover on the back end. Buffalo attacked them through the air a ton last week with Josh Allen tallying 33 completions for 312 yards and 2 TDs. Buffalo is typically one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league. George Kittle is fighting through an injury this week and Deebo Samuel will be out again. That puts Aiyuk in line for probably 6-8 targets, and against this defense that could be fantasy gold. He could be a huge value this week if you have the stones to play him. Just make sure he’s active on game day.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Ruggs got off to a hot start in week 1 before being sidelined for a bit with a knee injury. He was able to return and finish the game but did most of his damage before getting hurt. The Raiders clearly focused on trying to get the ball in his hands as you’d expect for a first round pick, and this week he faces off against a Saints team that allowed the 5th-most WR points per game last year. The Saints did revamp the secondary in the offseason adding Janoris Jenkins and Malcolm Jenkins and played a respectable game against Tampa last week, but the best part of that pass defense is top corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore doesn’t typically follow receivers into the slot, and that’s where Ruggs played more than 50% of his snaps in week 1. Getting away from Lattimore that often should help Ruggs to a 60+ yard outing this week, and he’s always a threat to take one to the house. If you’re in a deep league or trying to replace an injured starter like Godwin, Golladay or Michael Thomas, Ruggs should be in consideration.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Reagor had the longest play of any rookie in week 1 with a 55-yard catch, but it was his only catch of the week. The Eagles had a clear game plan to use Reagor and DeSean Jackson as deep threats, but those tend to be low-percentage throws and neither guy put up a great fantasy day. Reagor and Jackson combined for 11 targets, and both had an average target depth of more than 30 yards. No other receiver on the team was even at 10. It was a good sign that Reagor was involved, but I’d like to see the Eagles diversify the way he’s used and not limit him only to deep shots. He was coming off an injury and played just 59% of the snaps. That was the team-high among the WRs, but I think it will go up this week. I expect Jalen Ramsey will shadow D-Jax, so there is some upside for Reagor on the opposite side. Even if he doesn’t see more short targets this week, it only takes 1 or two deep balls to post a nice fantasy day if he finds the end zone.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 2: @ PIT): Courland Sutton seems like a long shot to play again this week, which gives Jeudy another opportunity as the lead wide receiver. Jeudy actually played fewer snaps than either Tim Patrick or DaeSean Hamilton in week 1 but had as many targets (8) as the two of them combined. The Broncos want to get the ball in his hands. The matchup this week is much tougher. The Steelers ranked 3rd in pass defense DVOA a year ago and did a good job limiting everyone other than Darius Slayton in the opener. I’d lean against playing Jeudy this week unless you have to, but his role in the offense gives him enough upside to consider here.
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Rookies to Sit:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Phi): Akers struggled in his debut while teammate Malcolm Brown got the hot hand, and as a result Brown got the lion’s share of the backfield work. Things don’t get much easier for Akers to make a splash this week with Darrell Henderson a week healthier and a tough visit to the Eagles coming up. Philly allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game last season and ranked 3rd in run defense DVOA a season ago. Peyton Barber found paydirt twice last Sunday against Philly, but the Washington backs combined for just 72 scrimmage yards on 32 touches. If Akers gets the hot hand early he may get more run than last week, but against this defense I wouldn’t bet on it.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Kelly had an impressive debut tallying 12 carries for 60 yards and a score in the opener. The reports that he was going to have a big role alongside Austin Ekeler in this backfield were clearly accurate. He wasn’t targeted in the opener, but Ekeler was only targeted once himself. I think a lot of that has to do with the QB change the franchise went through in the offseason. Philip Rivers was heavily targeting his backs in his Colts debut, but Tyrod has typically not thrown to the running backs at nearly the same clip. The rushing usage should remain strong for both Ekeler and Kelley all year though. The matchup this week doesn’t favor Kelley. The Chiefs did let David Johnson get loose a little bit in the season opener, but this game has obvious blowout potential, and if that happens it’ll be Ekeler handling most of the work. Kansas City is favored by 8.5 points, but I expect them to cover that without much trouble. With no receiving usage to boost his totals, Kelley will need to get in the end zone to return value. I don’t have a lot of faith that he scores one.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): Dillon was mostly an afterthought in the Packers’ offense in week one, finishing the game with just 5 offensive snaps and 2 carries for 14 yards. Head coach Matt LaFleur expressed an interest in getting him more involved in week two, and with Green Bay favored by nearly a touchdown there is some chance at some extra run late if the Packers get out in front of Detroit. I still wouldn’t expect him to be used much as a receiver, and the red zone work still belongs to Aaron Jones. Jones handled 3 of the team’s 4 carries inside the 10, and he also had 4 red zone targets. Dillon isn’t worth consideration for fantasy lineups this week unless you expect a blowout win for Green Bay.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 2: @ Ten): Viska didn’t approach the 10 touches that I was hoping for in the opener. He only got halfway there but did cash in a touchdown. The Jaguars will clearly be a slow tempo offense again this year despite a change in head coach and offensive scheme. That is going to limit Shenault’s weekly upside. They’re going to be creative in getting the ball into his hands each week, but if he’s only handling 5 or 6 weekly touches it’s going to be hard for him to return value in weeks where he doesn’t get into the end zone. He’ll have weekly fantasy starter upside, but he’ll be hard to rely on until he jumps ahead of Keelan Cole on the depth chart. I’d leave him on the pine this week.
WR Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Edwards’ stat line in week 1 left a LOT to be desired, as he pulled in just one pass on one target for 9 yards. What you may not know is that Edwards led the Raiders’ receivers with 75% of the snaps played. The targets are going to come. Edwards and Ruggs are clearly the top two receivers in Vegas and they’re going to make an effort to get Edwards more involved. This week could be a rough one though as Edwards may be squaring off with the Saints’ best corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore doesn’t follow the opposing number one receiver into the slot, and Ruggs played more than half of his snaps last weekend in the slot. That means plenty of snaps where he’ll be facing off with Edwards. We’ve already seen a week where the ball didn’t find Edwards very much, so I’d be hesitant to trust him this week in a tougher matchup.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): Claypool is the WR4 in this offense, but Pittsburgh did look for ways to get him involved in week 1. He was targeted twice and also got a rushing attempt on a gadget play. With AJ Bouye out for Denver there should be plenty of opportunities for the Steelers’ receivers to produce, but Claypool’s limited snaps will make him a touchdown dart throw for the foreseeable future.
WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): I wouldn’t be panicking too much just yet if you drafted Pittman in a deep league, but it’s going to take him a few weeks to work his way into a useful role. He’s still running behind Zach Pascal for the WR3 role in the offense. He did play more than half of the offensive snaps but was targeted just twice and ended with 2 catches for 10 yards. There will be better days ahead, but you’ll need to see more from the rookie before giving him flex consideration.
WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 2: @ PHI): Reports out of Rams camp had Jefferson pegged to be the team WR3 ahead of Josh Reynolds, but it was pretty clear on Sunday night that they’ll share the role early on this season. Neither was a big target priority though, with Jefferson seeing 3 targets and Reynolds just 1 on Sunday night. There could be some sneaky upside for one of those guys this week with Darius Slay likely to be shadowing Robert Woods, but I’d look for Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee to be the bigger beneficiaries of the matchup. I’d hold off on trying my luck with Jefferson.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 2: @ IND): Jefferson and Bisi Johnson seemed to be on about the same footing in the WR pecking order for the Vikings in week 1, but they’re both still a distant second behind Adam Thielen. The Vikings were behind on the scoreboard for all but two of their offensive snaps Sunday, and they still threw only 25 times. This is going to be a run-heavy attack all year, and Jefferson is probably going to have to move clearly ahead of Bisi to be a weekly consideration for fantasy lineups. Keep him sidelined for now.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 2: @ HOU): Duvernay played just 11 snaps in week one and is clearly behind Hollywood Brown, Miles Boykin and Willie Snead on the depth chart. Baltimore is favored by a touchdown and has a chance to pull away again and get some extra run for their backups, but that is more likely to help their backup running backs than Duvernay. Keep him benched this week.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Hightower played a healthy amount in week one, handling just 13 fewer snaps than Jalen Reagor’s team high 40, but he wasn’t used in ways that will give him fantasy value. He isn’t going to see a ton of targets, so he has to be used on deep balls to provide much value. In week 1, Hightower’s average target traveled just 8 yards in the air. I also expect DeSean Jackson and Reagor to see their snaps increase as they get closer to full strength. Hightower is a low-upside dart throw option this week unless something changes in his usage.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 2: @ CLE): Higgins was on the field for just 15 snaps with a big crowd of receivers in front of him on the depth chart. I don’t see a lot of reason why that will change in week 2 without injuries in front of him, and with the Bengals coming into this one with an implied total of 18.75 it’s hard to imagine him making a fantasy impact on so few snaps. Keep him sidelined in your lineups.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Kmet was targeted just once in the opener and served as the TE3 behind Jimmy Graham and Demetrius Harris. He’s nothing more than a long-shot weekly TD dart throw for now. The Bears are much more likely to look for Jimmy Graham in the red zone than Kmet.
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Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): I told you last week that if you’re in a 2-QB league you should be picking up Tua as your QB3 off the waiver wire, and after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions in week one, I want to reiterate it. Fitzmagic will start again in week 2, but the Bills allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game last year and picked up right where they left off in week 1. With another poor start by Fitzpatrick, it may be time for the Tua era to start in Miami. There could be some growing pains in his first couple starts if DeVante Parker is out, but he’s going be an asset in the back half of the season.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 2: @ ARI): Gibson didn’t play nearly as much as I would’ve liked to see in week 1 and it was a bummer that the team didn’t try to use him at all as a slot receiver, but Gibson led the Washington Football Team’s running backs with 44 scrimmage yards on 11 touches. It was tough sledding against a very good Eagles’ run defense for all 3 backs. Aside from a 20-yard carry by Gibson, the top three backs combined for 28 carries and 43 yards. The matchup gets easier this week and Washington will undoubtedly look to get Gibson involved. He touched the ball on 11 of his 18 snaps a week ago. Peyton Barber will still be the best bet for a touchdown in this offense, but I like Gibson’s chance at a better performance this week than what he did in the opener. He’s worth looking at if you need a flex in really deep league.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): James Conner is questionable to play this week after leaving Monday night’s game with an ankle injury, which could open the door for McFarland to make his NFL debut this week. He was a healthy scratch last week with Conner, Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels serving as the 3 active backs. If Conner sits, I’d expect Snell to handle a lot of the rushing load and Samuels to serve as the 3rd down back, but I’d expect the Steelers the try and get the ball in the hands of the speedy McFarland a handful of times. The Broncos aren’t exactly an easy matchup, so McFarland is mostly just a shoot the moon sort of DFS play this week. If Conner plays, ignore all of this.
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 2: @ GB): Kenny Golladay looks likely to sit again this week, and Cephus saw a whopping TEN targets in the opener and played 79% of the offensive snaps. He only turned 3 of the targets into catches, but he clearly has some trust from Matt Stafford. He’ll avoid Jaire Alexander’s coverage this week, which makes him a nice play in a game where the Lions figure to be throwing a fair amount. The Packers are favored by 6. A repeat of the 10 targets might be asking a lot, but he’ll be involved enough to warrant flex consideration in deeper leagues, and his $3,800 DraftKings price tag could be a steal in DFS tournaments this week.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 2: @ MIA): Davis is a guy you should be looking at if you’re in a dynasty league where he’s available. Buffalo’s offense looked different in week one. They played with a lot of tempo and played with a lot of receivers on the field. They went 4-wide on 20 of their offensive snaps. They had that many on the field for just 5 snaps in ALL of 2019. If this continues, Davis is going to be on the field a decent amount this year. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in week one, and while he’ll remain low on the target priority list for now, his high snap count is strong evidence that Davis is a part of Buffalo’s plans. He probably doesn’t belong on the waiver wire in most dynasty leagues.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Mooney saw limited opportunity in the opener but made the most of his chances. He posted 3 catches for 38 yards on 3 targets in just 21 snaps. He’s already on equal footing with Javon Wims on the depth chart and is ahead of Riley Ridley. With the rumors that Allen Robinson may be on his way out of Chicago, now is the time to scoop up Mooney off the waiver wire, especially in dynasty formats. I can’t imagine Robinson is in Chicago beyond 2020, and if Mooney shows well he could be a big part of the Bears’ future plans at the position. Mooney didn’t put up gaudy receiving stats at Tulane, but he played in a low volume passing attack. He accounted for 41% of the team receiving yards as a junior in 2018 before seeing a dip last year.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): New Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski clearly wants to recreate the offense he ran for the Vikings a year ago, and that means a ton of 2-tight end sets. Only the Eagles spent more time with two tight ends on the field than Minnesota did last year, and in week one only the Eagles played more snaps with two tight ends than the Browns did. David Njoku was placed on IR after the game and will miss at least the next 3 weeks. The Bengals coughed up 5 catches for 73 yards to Hunter Henry in the opener, and Bryant was a dynamic receiver in college who posted a 65-1004-7 line a year ago at FAU. With Austin Hooper around, it’ll be tough to trust Bryant in normal lineups this week, but he’ll cost the minimum in DFS and is a nice stash for dynasty leagues, two tight end leagues, and deeper TE-premium formats.
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That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough lineup decisions involving rookies this week. Keep in mind that any players at the same position listed at under the same header are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don’t end up playing an inactive player unexpectedly. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article at drinkfive.com

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re on the brink of a new season, albeit a strange one. Stadiums with no fans, the Raiders in Vegas, 14 playoff spots, and no Tom Brady in New England are just a few of the things that will feel strange this year – but football will go on. Of course, there’s always the looming threat of a Covid-19 outbreak derailing things, but I’m going to operate from the optimistic point of view that things will go on as scheduled. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, each week I’ll be breaking down the matchups that the rookie class will be facing and letting you know which ones are good fantasy options and which ones should be avoided. I’ll throw in some sleepers and guys to stash on the bench as well, and I try to cover all of the fantasy relevant rookies each week (kickers excluded). Make sure to read the details on each player and not just what header they’re under since some of these may be format specific. Any players under the same header that play the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week.
The rookies are always a tough group to predict for fantasy production, but week 1 is always tough since we don’t have any on field production to go off of when making decisions. This year we don’t even have preseason games. For some of these predictions you have to read the tea leaves a bit and read between the lines of the coachspeak, and sometimes you just have to trust the talent of the player to win out. With all that in mind, let’s dive in and talk about week 1…
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Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): If you have CEH, you likely took him in the first round, so you don’t need me to tell you that you’re starting him every week unless he gives you a reason not to. The Chiefs have the highest projected point total in the league this week at 31.75, and the Texans were in the bottom-6 in the league last year at limiting RB fantasy points. They were especially vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing more receptions per game to backs than every team other than the Colts. There’s no reason to shy away from CEH in DFS lineups despite a $7,000 price tag in DraftKings. Editor's Note: this article was posted here on /fantasyfootball after TNF aired, although it was composed earlier. Sheesh. :)
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 1: @ Jax.): Taylor will be in a prime spot to make a splash in his NFL debut. You likely drafted him as your RB2 unless you started with 3 straight running backs, so you’re probably going to play him regardless of what I write here. I won’t try to stop you. He’ll likely be splitting the backfield work with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines this week, but the Jaguars were one of the worst defenses in the league against opposing running backs last year and lost Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue and AJ Bouye from that defense in the offseason. They’re projected to be one of the worst teams in the league and are an 8-point home underdog in week one. The Colts should be able to run plenty in this one, and I expect Taylor’s talent to show through even if his opportunities are limited. He’s a solid RB2 option this week.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 1: @ LAR): Lamb is the best of the rookie receiver crop in my opinion, and he gets a great opportunity to start proving me right in week 1. The Rams consistently use Jalen Ramsey to shadow the opposing team’s #1 receiver, and with Dallas that means Ramsey will be chasing around Amari Cooper. This will be good news for both Lamb and Michael Gallup who get to face off with Troy Hill and Darious Williams instead. Advantage Cowboys. Despite Zeke Elliott racking up plenty of carries last season, the Cowboys ranked 10th in pass attempts, 2nd in passing yards and 5th in passing TDs in 2019, so there is plenty of volume to go around, and this week that volume should be finding Lamb and Gallup. The Cowboys also have the 3rd-highest implied point total of the week at 27.5. You may not have drafted Lamb as one of your top 3 wide receivers this season, but this could be a week to get him in the lineup over someone you drafted before him. At just $4,100 in DraftKings, he’s a screaming value for tournaments.
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Borderline Rookies:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): Akers enters week 1 listed as the number 3 running back on the depth chart with Malcolm Brown as the starter and Darrell Henderson at #2, but I see ‘starter’ as a nominal title for Brown. He’s a guy the team trusts to do the job if the others don’t step up, but he’s not a feature back that you build around. Darrell Henderson is playing catch-up a little bit after being banged up in camp, and I think Akers has a real chance to take over the lead role in week 1. I expect the team will ride whoever gets the hot hand this week, but this is an offense that creates plenty of fantasy production for the running back position. We know that Todd Gurley was an otherworldly talent at his peak, but McVay has also gotten productive fantasy seasons from Alfred Morris and Rob Kelley when he was in Washington, and an incredible 3-game stretch from a seemingly washed up CJ Anderson in LA. Dallas was a middling run defense last season, so if Akers is able to get the bulk of the work this week, he’s got obvious RB2 upside.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): The Jets boasted one of the best run defenses in the league a year ago, but in the offseason they lost two of the guys that were big reasons why they were so effective. CJ Mosley opted out of 2020, and Jamal Adams was dealt to Seattle. Even if the Jets are able to be a solid run defense again without those guys, they’re likely going to be playing from behind so much that the RB counting stats are still going to add up. Moss enters the season expected to be the Bills’ early down running back. The Bills had the 7th-highest rushing percentage in the league last year, running on 47.5% of their offensive snaps, and they figure to be run-heavy again. I’d expect Moss to finish week 1 around 15 touches, and he’d be first in line for any goal line carries. That puts him firmly on the flex radar in 12-team leagues and is a better play in non-PPR formats.
WR Henry Ruggs, LVR (Wk. 1: @ Car.): Ruggs was the first receiver off the board in April, and he’ll open the season as the team’s WR1 with Tyrell Williams out for the year. Ruggs has the speed to be a dangerous deep threat, but with Derek Carr at QB he’ll likely have to make his living on schemed touches in the short part of the field where he creates yards after the catch. As the WR1, I’m sure Jon Gruden will make sure Carr is getting the ball to Ruggs, but the group of pass catchers that thrives in the short part of the field is crowded in Vegas. Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Jalen Richard are all good receivers in that area, so I don’t see Ruggs being a target hog early on. His road to being a fantasy standout will be through creating big plays. He’ll get a chance to do that against a Carolina defense that isn’t terrible against the pass but isn’t imposing either. Ruggs is a boom-or-bust option who is capable of a Marquise Brown style week 1 breakout (Brown went 4-147-2 in week 1 last year), but is also capable of falling short of 40 yards.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Jeudy is an outstanding talent and landed on a team where he’ll walk right into the WR2 role in the offense, but it’s not a high volume passing offense and he’ll likely start the year behind both Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant in the pecking order. That outlook may have changed on Thursday with Sutton suffering a shoulder injury in practice. If Sutton sits, Jeudy could be the WR1 in week 1. No cornerback on the Titans should be capable of stopping Sutton, but they probably won’t be quite as overmatched by Jeudy. Fant should be in line for a nice day as the Titans struggled to contain tight ends last year, allowing the 6th-most points per game to the position. Keep an eye on the Sutton updates. If Sutton sits or is going to be limited, Jeudy should see enough volume to be a playable WR3 option. If it seems like Sutton is going to be fine, I would probably keep Jeudy benched until we see what his target share looks like as the WR2.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): Aiyuk’s status is still up in the air this week, as is Deebo Samuel’s. If Aiyuk plays and Deebo doesn’t, there should be some consideration for getting Aiyuk in your lineup as a flex option. He may be facing off with Patrick Peterson in that scenario, but Peterson was anything but his typical self after returning from a 6-game suspension to open the 2019 season. He rounded into form late in the year, but Peterson is on the wrong side of 30 and Aiyuk is the type of receiver that can win at all levels of the field. The 49ers’ offense is going to run through George Kittle and their running backs, but they do have an implied point total of 27.25, so it’s likely that *some* receiver puts up a nice fantasy game Sunday. If he plays, Aiyuk is likely to lead the wide receiver group in targets, giving him the best shot of being that guy.
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Rookies to Sit:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): I like Burrow’s upside over the course of the year as a QB2, but I think there will be some growing pains in the early part of the season. The Chargers are not an inviting matchup for an NFL debut. They’ve got a solid pass rush anchored by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. No team blitzed less than the Chargers in 2019, and yet they ranked 13th in the league in QB pressure percentage. It didn’t translate into a lot of sacks, but the addition of Linval Joseph to the middle of the line should help free up the edge rushers to be more disruptive this season. The team will be hurt by the loss of Derwin James to injury, but they still boast one of the best starting pairs of corners in the league in Casey Heyward and Chris Harris. I think there is a good chance the Chargers make Burrow look like a rookie in his debut and would be hesitant to play him in 2 QB leagues if I didn’t have to.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 1: vs. Cle.): If I drafted Dobbins as my RB3 this season, I’d be tempted to play him this week. The Browns ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat last year, and the Ravens are favored by 8 in the opener. There could be some garbage time for Dobbins once the Ravens get out in front, but Baltimore may still try and keep Gus Edwards and/or Justice Hill involved in the run game as well. The official team depth chart listed Dobbins as the 4th-string back. I expect he’ll work as the number 2 guy behind Mark Ingram but would like to see how the rotation plays out before putting Dobbins in my lineups. I
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): Gibson has had a ton of buzz around him during camp after Washington cut Adrian Peterson. He’s a versatile player who has drawn comparisons from the coaching staff to Christian McCaffrey. That’s obviously a pretty big stretch, but the head coach and offensive coordinator making the comparison were both in Carolina last year. I think Gibson will be the best fantasy back on the team this year, but I don’t love him for week 1. The Eagles ranked third in run defense DVOA last season, and I expect we’ll see Peyton Barber handle most of the early down work early in the season for Washington. Gibson will also be competing with JD McKissic and Bryce Love for 3rd-down work. The team is thin at wide receiver, so you could even see Gibson line up in the slot a bit since he played a lot of wide receiver in college. All in all, there’s just too much uncertainty about what his week 1 role will look like to trust him in fantasy lineups.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Swift has been working through a couple injuries in camp but should be able to suit up on Sunday. The problem is that with the signing of Adrian Peterson this backfield figures to be a three-headed monster, and that’ll be a headache for fantasy players. Swift may get the valuable 3rd down passing work, but I’d like to see how the workload is divided before relying on any Lions running back in my fantasy lineups. I’d take a wait and see approach with Swift.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 1: @ Min): Dillon enters week 1 listed as the 3rd running back on the depth chart in Green Bay, and while I would normally tell you to ignore the official team depth charts at this point, this one feels like how it’ll actually play out on the field. I’d expect Aaron Jones to be the clear lead back with a mix of Jamaal Williams and Dillon spelling him for some early down work. The best bet for Dillon getting a healthy workload would be garbage time in a blowout win, but that seems unlikely with the Vikings favored by 3. I’d keep Dillon away from your lineups.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 1: @ NO): In case you drafted Vaughn early and have been living under a rock in recent weeks, the signings of Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy will make Vaughn mostly useless for now in fantasy leagues. He’ll likely be limited to special teams early in the season and won’t have much value without injuries in front of him. Feel free to drop him outside of dynasty leagues.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 1: @ Jax): Pittman should see the field quite a bit in week 1, but I don’t expect it to translate into fantasy production just yet. The Colts played 61% of their snaps last season in 11 personnel (3 WR), and their 3-WR sets to open the year should feature Pittman, TY Hilton and Parris Campbell, but the bulk of the passing volume should go through Hilton and Campbell (along with Jack Doyle and Nyheim Hines). The Colts are an 8-point road favorite this week, and I’d expect them to lean heavily on the running game which will limit how many targets there are to go around. If Pittman makes it to even 5 targets, I’d consider his week 1 to be a successful one.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 1: @ NYG): The Steelers have spent much of the summer talking up Claypool, but this is an offense with a lot of mouths to feed. The return of Ben Roethlisberger should make this a much more fantasy-friendly offense than it was last year, but Claypool enters the season as no higher than 4th in the target pecking order. The Steelers do have a favorable matchup this week and have the 5th-highest implied total of the week, and Big Ben hasn’t really played much with James Washington or Diontae Johnson, so if you want to roll the dice on Claypool in a DFS tournament (just a $3,000 price tag in DraftKings) I wouldn’t fault you for it. For season-long leagues you should have safer options for week 1.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 1: @ BUF): It sounds like Mims is going to play this week, but after missing much of camp with a hamstring injury, I wouldn’t count on him getting a full workload in this one. It also remains to be seen which outside receiver will tangle with standout corner Tre’Davious White. Breshad Perriman is coming off an injury of his own, and both players make for poor options against a tough Bills defense with the Jets having an implied point total of just 16.5 points.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. GB): Jefferson is a very talented receiver, and the Vikings obviously believe in him after drafting him in the first round in April, but he’ll likely open the season splitting WR2 snaps with Bisi Johnson. The Vikings play with 3 WRs less often than any other team in the league. They consistently operate out of a 2 tight end base set with Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. Jefferson will eventually work his way past Bisi, but I’d want to see what kind of opportunities he gets early on before trusting him in my fantasy lineup. His week one matchup isn’t all that appealing either. Green Bay is one of just 2 teams in the league that allowed less than 10 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers last year.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): With AJ Green expected to play week 1, it’ll be hard for Higgins to get on the field much. It looks like Green, Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate will be the trio on the field in 3 wide receiver sets, and Higgins will be competing with John Ross for any leftover reps. There’s no reason to consider Higgins for week 1.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 1: @ DET: Kmet was the first tight end drafted in April, but he doesn’t figure to play a large role early in his rookie season. He’ll open the season behind at least Jimmy Graham on the depth chart, and possibly Demetrius Harris as well. The Lions were a middle of the pack defense against tight ends a year ago, but Kmet shouldn’t be a consideration in any formats this week.
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Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 1: @ NE): I don’t list Tua here with any thoughts of you using him in week 1. I mention him in case you’re in a 2-QB league where he’s sitting on the waiver wire. He’s going to take over for Fitzpatrick at some point this season, and when he does he’s going to have big-time upside. He’s worth stashing if you have the roster spot in superflex and 2-QB leagues. I would rather have Tua than fellow rookie Justin Herbert.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 1: @ CIN): Kelley enters week 1 as the likely backup to Austin Ekeler, but that role will probably come with 10-12 touches and possibly more if the Chargers pull away. Ekeler isn’t built to be a 20+ touch per game kind of back and the Chargers are shifting to a more run-heavy approach this season with Philip Rivers gone. Kelley looks like the back who will pick up the slack the Melvin Gordon left behind. Only 4 teams allowed more rushing yards last season than the Bengals, and while Cincy could be improved with the addition of DJ Reader to their D-line, I expect they’ll still find themselves in a lot of negative game scripts. For week 1, Ekeler has RB1 upside, but Kelley isn’t a terrible option as a flex in deep leagues. He’s someone you should be picking up everywhere if he’s on the waiver wire. I expect his role will grow as the season progresses.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): What a difference a week makes for Robinson. A week ago Robinson looked like he was going the be the number 4 or 5 running back on the depth chart, but since then Leonard Fournette was cut, Ryquell Armstead went back on the Covid-reserve list, and Devine Ozigbo landed on IR. Robinson is suddenly the projected starter this week. Chris Thompson will handle most of the 3rd down work, but Robinson is going to be on the field a lot. The Colts didn’t give up many running back touchdowns last season (6), but they gave up plenty of yards to them, both on the ground and through the air. The Jaguars project to be playing from behind in this one, so Chris Thompson is probably the guy that will lead this backfield in fantasy scoring this week, but in deep leagues a starting running back is hard to ignore. Robinson certainly shouldn’t be on your waiver wire and he has 10+ point upside this week.
WR Bryan Edwards, LVR (Wk. 1: @ Car): Ruggs is the guy with the draft capital, but Bryan Edwards may emerge as the alpha receiver on this Vegas team. He excels in the intermediate part of the field where few other receivers on the team do, and he’s easily the most physical of their receivers, which will serve him well in the red zone. His QB has compared him to former teammates Davante Adams and James Jones, both of whom excel at getting in the end zone. The Raiders have a reasonable implied point total of 25.25 this week, and if I had to bet on any Vegas pass catcher getting in the end zone it would be Edwards. He costs just $4,200 in DraftKings and is very likely to outperform that price tag. He may not get as many targets as Ruggs, but don’t be surprised if he outscores the first rounder in week 1.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): After all of the changes and injuries that have come up for the Jaguars over the last week or 2, about the only thing that seems clear with this offense is that DJ Chark is going to be targeted a lot. I’ll add a second thing here – Laviska Shenault is going to be very involved in this offense. Reports out of camp this week are that the Jaguars are getting VERY creative with the ways they’re using him. He’s a versatile player that lined up all over the field in college and is dynamic with the ball in the open field. I expect Jacksonville to make it a point to get the ball into his hands any way they can, even if it means handing it to him out of the backfield. Viska has a higher DraftKings price tag than some of the other rookies at $4,400, but he could be a really interesting option in limited slate contests. 10 touches isn’t out of the question in week 1.
WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. GB): I wasn’t high on Jefferson coming into camp, but he’s been impressive. He’s not an explosive athlete, but his football IQ and feel for the game are off the charts. He’s a route running technician who was a tough cover for Jalen Ramsey in camp. It remains to be seen if he’s fully overtaken Josh Reynolds for the WR3 role in the offense, but if he has he’ll be on the field a lot. The Rams like to line up with 3 wide receivers on the field as much as anyone. Dallas was stingy against wide receivers a year ago, but they said goodbye to their number one corner Byron Jones in the offseason. Jefferson is more of a stash right now, but if he’s on the field as the WR3 a 4-60 kind of game wouldn’t be that crazy for him this week.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 1: @ Was): Hightower has a chance to benefit from a couple of injuries ahead of him this week, and also from the extra attention the Washington secondary will give to DeSean Jackson. D-Jax burned them in the opener last year with 2 TDs of 50+ yards. They’re going to do everything they can to make sure that doesn’t happen again. That means less attention for JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Greg Ward, and Hightower. Of that trio, Hightower is the only one with the burner speed to hurt Washington deep. He’s a DFS tournament dart throw who will cost the minimum in DraftKings, and can have a nice NFL debut with just one or two deep balls.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you as you try to figure out what to do with the rookies on your team for week 1. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week to make sure you don’t end up playing anyone inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com

Thursday Night Recap: Well, I think that game told us everything we need to know about JAX. They are going to be very inconsistent. To play the games they played in week 1 and 2 and then come home and put up a stinker against a bottom team in the league... So, the Jags are now in my list of teams in 2020 that I will bet as dogs, but never as favorites.
We did ok on the evening. +1 Unit and our BBDLS is live going into the UFC fight tomorrow.
Singles (1-1,+2u)
Parlays (0-1, -1u)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (still alive) Update, Costa got rocked. BBDLS dead!
Weeks 3 is upon us. Lets check out the match-ups! :D
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1PM Games
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LV at NE: Both teams looked pretty great offensively last week. Cam is the only other player I still seem some value on for MVP. The most important thing to me in this game is Coach vs Coach.
Is there more confidence in Gruden and his defense vs Bellichek calling for Cam? OR Bellichek and his defense at home vs Derrick Carr traveling across the country?
This early in the season is the time when its any given Sunday, but on a short week for LV and a full week for NE, don't see NE giving this one up at home very often. The spread is a bit high, but NE looks like a great candidate for a Teaser.
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LAR at Buf: First undefeated matchup of the day. It seems as if the Rams have a better pass rush, but the Bills have the better overall defense. The Rams are traveling East again after flying to Philly last week and back to LA.
Goff looks great this year. He Superbowl slumped last year; having no running game hurt him tremendously. But, this year it seems as if the team is finding an offensive rhythm and giving Goff enough time to spread the ball around.
My Algo is high on LA and says this spread should be LA -2. Since our Algo has LA at a 55% win, win or lose, this is an easy +EV Bet on the Rams. Also another great candidate for a Teaser.
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Hou at Pit: Oh boy, am I excited to see this one! PIT really let me down last week allowing DEN, with a back up QB, to get a back door cover. HOU SHOULD be undervalued as they are 0-2. However, lets remember both of their losses came to the Chiefs and Ravens...
I have this weird feeling this is going to be one of those road dog gets an early lead and the favorite has to battle back to try and last drive win or not. It is extremely hard for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs so I look for all the 0-2 teams to give MAXIMUM POWAH! The Texans are the best 0-2 team IMO.
With a middle of the road total, the Texans not only look like another good candidate for a Teaser but have value on the spread and the ML.
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SF at NYG: What will happen in this game?! NY Giants, Saquan, out. SF, Everyone out. I have gone against SF in both weeks and so far they are 1-1. If there was another week to fade them, I am sure this has to be it. Back to back road game, Missing like 10 key players including the QB and Star TE...
I can't see laying points with SF with those conditions, that leads me to believe there is value on the NY points side. BTW, another 0-2 team. You know they want to compete till the end.
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Ten at Min: I am extremely torn on this one. I think TEN D still has some work to do to become playoff ready. But, the Min D has a ton of work to do just to win a game... I feel like MIN and PHL are on down years but it is sooooo hard for me to bet against Zimmer, especially at home. Depending on game script, this could be Dalvin Cooks wake up game.
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Was at Cle: This seems like I could give almost the same analysis as the Cincy/CLE game. Cle should put this away but 7 is a big number so be weary of backdoor covers. If CLE wants a shot at the extra wildcard spot this year, they NEED to take care of business this game. Washington on back to back road games and a non-favorable schedule this year. This should be good practice for two teams trending in opposite directions.
CLE is my Favorite pick in the teasers this week.
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Cin at Phl: Well, well well. The only battle of two 0-2 teams. I have been riding the Eagles suck train for the first two weeks now, and Joe Burrow getting two backdoor covers on his first two starts has me wanting to ride that train again.
The Eagles did look ok for the first half of last weeks game, but after a pick from Wentz, the energy shifted and the Eagles were left behind. Even IF the Eagles can pull it together as a team to get a win, I still like the young Burrow to fight till the end of games.
Might even sprinkle a little ML action on Cincy here...Eagles D still feels like hot trashhhhh
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Chi at Atl: Our last 0-2 team (that has a chance) Chi has looked...ok. I take it back, Tenn isnt the worst 2-0 team, Chicago is. Without an outlier performance 4th quarter in game one and the Giants losing Saquan in game 2, Chi could theoretically be 0-2. ATL defense is starting off the year like they did last year, by just getting dressed but not really playing. This is looking like another big offensive year for Matt Ryan, followed by some horrible coaching decisions and stupid losses by his defense playing the worst zone defense known to man.
In this game though? I have to side with the 0-2 home favorite. There is a reason they are 0-2 vs a 2-0 team and still giving points. You don't see MIN as a clear favorite and they have a coach that knows what he is doing!
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NYJ at Ind: I cant write about this game. I very much dislike Rivers and don't like taking him when he has to cover more than a TD. I already gave him his chance in week 1. I think he is full capable of winning a blowout in this game and dominating the news cycle next week, but I just cant take this many points with anyone other than the Chiefs and Ravens
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4PM Games
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Car at LAC: All the interesting games to talk about today and then this game is squeaked in there. CMC, gone. Tyrod Taylor, out for another week at least. Herbert...dropping sherbet scoops out to everyone.
Honestly, offensively, CAR didn't look that bad. Teddy looks like young Watson, in that he's chased everywhere but still makes some things happen. LA with a 1st time starting backup QB that didn't know he was playing... had success and honestly Herbert looked a lot like Drew Lock last year. This game has some small potential for an upset and 6.5 for a 2nd time starting QB is....interesting but I think the LA defense is what carries this one to a victory.
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Det at AZ: This is one of those games that scares me. Every week there is a game with a 6-9 point spread where there is an upset. Outside of the Bengals and Texans, this is that game on my radar this week. But i am already over betting on DET for the year. AZ has started on fire. Is this DET defense that gave up 21 to Trubitsky, IN THE 4TH QUARTER, gonna slow down the red hot cards? I'm not stepping on that train. This game looks to be my stay away game. Lets see how these teams develop before we put too much stock in them.
This is a potentially great game for props though!
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TB at Den: Still not sure what's going on with either of these two teams. TB looked decent last week, but it was vs CAR... Brady is not yet in rhythm but he's getting decent protection. Denver backdoor covered last week after Lock went down with an injury, being replaced by Jeff Driskle. Jeff had a decent game and screwed all the Steelers spread bettors. I think what's more interesting then a spread in this one would be the Under. With QB changes for Den, Brady not yet in form, and both teams having decent defenses, this game looks primed for some weird 16-10.
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Dal at Sea: The Titans game and these next two were the hardest for me to judge on such little data. I am obviously very high on SEA this year predicting them to win the NFC and have a great shot at a Superbowl this year. I am conversely not that hot on Dallas. I think the whole NFC East is a work in progress. Dallas is full of offense, but until they can have a healthy season with a top 5 defense, I don't think they can go all the way. This years defensive losses are particularly rough and it's only week 2. Both teams have offenses capable of lighting it up at any time so for that reason I think it will be in both teams interest to keep the other offence off the field. This means sustained drives to eat up as much clock as possible. I also think that Dallas will be awfully full of themselves (warranted or not) from last weeks come from behind win. In a game where I am going to contrarily take the under, I must also take all those points.
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Sunday Night Football
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GB at NO: The last game of the day, also very hard one to dissect with little data. It seems as if Rodgers is coming out going for an MVP type season. Brees on the other hand looks...old. My algo has GB +1.5 here and normally I would think Vegas was just shading because NO is a team the public likes to bet on at home. However the public perception is NO lost on primetime as a favorite last week while GB is 2-0 with back to back 40 point offensive performances. And they are still giving GB 3 and in some books 3.5...
This worries me. Vegas is usually more right than wrong and primetime games tend to lean opposite of public perception. I may have to take NO just based on the fact that 70% of the moneyline money is on GB yet they are still a 3 point favorite.
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I am pretty light on wagers this week. I am currently moving and so I have had a little less time to look over the full cards and props. I do like weeks 3-5 as a sweet spot for underdog value as the markets try to find the right prices for each team.
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Singles (9-10, -3.15u)

• LAR +2.5 (2u to win 2u)
• HOU +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• Kareem Hunt 19.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• DAL +5.5 (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (0-3, -6.5u)

• Israel Adesanya ML, CLE ml, IND ml, NE ml, BAL ml (9u to win 33.87u)
• Kamara 75 Rush yards and TD (Raiders/NO TNF), Cincy +6.5, Ten ml, IND ml, Dal +5.5, BAL ml (3u to win 97u)

Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)

• CLE -1, ATL +3.5, TB PK and U48.5 (6u to win 15.6u)
• NE Pk, CLE PK, LAR +8.5, NYG +10.5, HOU +10.5, CIN +12.5, BAL +3.5 (4u to win 24u)

BBDLS (0-4, -3.4u)

• I have 10 BBDLS in for a total of 9.2u. They are all 10+ team parlays getting greater than 100-1 odds. If I typed them all up it would double the size of this page. These are all most likely losing tickets but if one hits I will post the screenshot.

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DraftKings $2 Million Pick em National Championship $1Million for First
Week 2 (3-2) Better! Its expected that as I gather more data, these picks should better. Lets keep this train rolling to its resting place for the remainder of the year, :D 5-0 city!
Overall (4-6)
Week 3

• HOU +3.5
• CINCY +5.5
• LAR +1.5
• NYG +3.5
• DAL +4.5

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Thanks for reading and good luck to all! :D

Hey Falcons fans!
First off, from a Rams fan, I feel for ya'll this year. My roommate is a die-hard Falcons fan and seeing the emotional trauma that is this year is absolutely gut wrenching.
His birthday is coming up and I wanted to get him a jersey off of Pristine Auction as a birthday gift and hopefully a salve for the way this season is going.
I wanted to ask if you think he would rather get a Julio Jones jersey or a Matt Ryan? When we watch RedZone/ever talk about football we also talk about how great -- truly great -- Julio Jones is. We always talk about his status as a first-ballot HOFer, his dislike for scoring touchdowns, and the way everyone respects his name.
At the same time, there is no doubt he loves and support Matt Ryan. He routinely talks about the Falcons wasting Ryan's career, and we have a standing prop-bet for a dinner than Ryan throws more yards than Tannehill (I like the underdog, and I am full onboard with Ryan Tannehill's resurgence).
As more background; he's from Hawaii, played D2 ball in the south, and has been a Falcons fan since the Vick era. He picks them to win every week in our season long W/L every game bet.
Thanks for the advice!

16 Americans are about to begin the adventure of a lifetime in the scorching deserts of Kenya in eastern Africa. They are about to be abandoned in the heart of one of the most diverse and dangerous collections of animals anywhere on the planet. Zebras, giraffes, elephants, lions, just a sampling of the animals that call this place home. Temperatures here can reach 120 degrees. Water is scarce. It is a land virtually untouched by the modern world. For the next 39 days these 16 strangers will be left to fend for themselves. Forced to create a new society while battling the elements and each other. They must learn to adapt or they’ll be voted out of the tribe. In the end only one will remain to claim the million dollar prize. 39 days, 16 people, 1 survivor! This is Marooned: Africa!
INTRO
The Cast
Boran Tribe:

• Albert “Al” Meida, 28, Art Director
  • Al likes to compete, especially when he wins. Growing up in a successful family, he adapted to his family’s way of thinking of always pushing yourself to be #1. Whether if it’s in sports, academics or other activities, Al always desires to be the one to come out on top. Survivor will be his greatest challenge yet and he’s ready to come out on top.
• Alix Colburn, 22, Zookeeper
  • lex has never been quite sure how to feel about himself. While he's biologically male, he actually wants to be female. His parents have conflicting feelings about it, and barely anyone treated him with respect as a kid. Nowadays, he's feeling better. He works at a zoo due to his love for animals and he wants to raise awareness on the show before he fully transitions.
• Katrina MacQuoid, 58, Prosthodontist
  • Katrina’s parents we’re performers in Kentucky. They lived and breathed theater and expected their daughter to be the same. Though Katrina loved being the center of attention, and still does, she never loved the stage the way her parents did. Her parents wanted her to continue to pursue something arts related, and she became an advertising adjective, but never felt satisfied. When she learned that Kentucky was looking for jobs in the dental field, she felt it would be a perfect field to enter. She always found teeth interesting, I mean, are they bones? But they fall out? So weird. She returned to school at age 35 and became a Prosthodontist at age 43. She’s worked as a Prosthodontist since then and (While not at the level of Peter) has a firm understanding of the most important hole in the human body, the mouth. While she’s liked by many people because of her fun personality, she has trouble forming 1 on 1 bonds and has never found the special one. As a child she often got in trouble for anger issues with her parents, so she began to hold in her anger and let it out in huge, uncontrollable fits when her parents weren't around. This holding in of anger until she can’t contain it is a habit she continues to have, blaming her rages on “Hurricane Katrina” as a sort of justification of her actions. She’s never left Kentucky and while she’s very book smart, she can often be very ignorant on other subjects.
• Kiara Phoenix, 28, Novel Writer
  • Kiara is socially generous and shy, but inside she behaves pessimistically about herself. Kiara can be a leader but sometimes she have difficulty giving orders correctly, but she still tries. Kiara's family is doing well, being the only daughter of her parents, but sadly she lost her mother on July 19 this year to heart attack. Kiara and her father kept on doing what they like to do; her father, Damian, working as a furniture maker and Kiara in a hobby that is writing novels and drawing, DeviantArt, but then she changed to Tumblr because of problems in the page, but months later she is recognized by her book "The Dark of Fantasy" and now she works mostly as a Novel Writer.
• Marilyn Yung, 21, Aspiring Broadway Singer
  • Growing up Marilyn’s Parents always told her she would be a star. unfortunately Marilyn took what they said to fat and would beg her parents to let her audition for a Broadway show each show she auditioned for she was rejected the directors always found her annoying and didn’t like her singing style this led Marilyn to audition for a lot of things one of them being the show “Survivor” Marilyn wants to use the show to Promote her Broadway Career and possible gain fame.
• Raymond “Ray” Franks, 21, Student
  • Ray grew up in a very conservative town where he couldn’t express himself openly. After getting accepted into college, he decided that he would leave his family and friends behind and live how he wanted to. He’s still attending college, and is hoping to get accepted into a top tier medical school where he can pursue a career that helps others. Ray is planning on using the money to pay for his student loans and living expenses. He is currently living with his roommate and only “loved one” Troy.
• Tonette “Toni” Madison, 36, Jazz Singer
  • Toni’s parents were both musicians, hence her name Tonette. She has always wanted to follow in her parent’s footsteps, except better. She succeeded in doing that, and now wants to win the million not for herself, but for her parents, as they were struggling musicians, whereas she is successful, and she feels as if she owes them a big thank you.
• Wallace Buchanan, 26, Barber
  • Wallace is a very reserved guy. He lives his life for his work and weekend activities at his home on Lake Michigan. There he does his carpentry, listens to his heavy rock, practices his meditation with his girlfriend, in short, a life away from everything and everyone. He has few friends, but the ones he chose are very loyal and important to him.

Samburu Tribe

• Crystal “Cris” Brook, 26, Singer
  • Cris has always been a shy person. However, she was also naturally gifted in singing. All throughout high school the friends that she did have wanted her to perform in her school's talent show. She was finally convinced in senior year, and she won the talent show and became an overnight sensation. Since she has gotten famous, she has made plenty of albums, and is known as "The Geek of Pop." However, Cris loves to exercise and it's actually a coping method for her and helps her be confident in herself.
• Jeremy McPherson, 32, Firefighter
  • Growing up he was saved by a firefighter while their house are burning, he is thankful for them, and growing up he wants to be a Firefighter, and now his dreams come true he have saved so many life as a firefighter.
• Kathy Mayfield, 26, Aspiring Actress
  • Ever since Kathy was a child, she always dreamed to be BIG. She always wanted to be an actress in Hollywood. Unfortunately for her, after 26 years of life the biggest role she got was an extra in a commercial. So she plans to go on Marooned, where she can show all her talents as an actress, she can manipulate and charm her way to the top, and maybe she can finally have her dream come true.
• Kaylee Robinson, 27, Self Defense Instructor
  • Kaylee wasn't always this loud and proud, being from the dangerous part of town, Kaylee and her sister were jumped by a street gang called the king's court. Kaylee barely escaped with her life. The same can not be said for her sister Liana, who was shot 12 times in the chest after protecting her sister from the shots. This traumatized Kaylee who finally came out of her shell after this tragic accident. Ever since that day, Kaylee taught herself self Defense until she was a master at it. Kaylee now teaches Self Defense to women all across Oregon.
• Leo Johnson, 34, Pro Wrestler
  • Ever since Leo was young he has wanted to be a wrestler. Now at 34 years old he’s living the dream being a pro wrestler but a part of him still doesn’t feel complete. He’s coming to Marooned to go on an adventure that will hopefully help him feel more complete and accomplished.
• Matt Kristoffson, 19, College Athlete
  • Matt takes the "strong, silent type" to the extreme. Ever since he was young, he would very rarely talk to others, and mostly kept to himself throughout his teenage years. Now in college, he is a key member of his college's football team. Not wanting to be seen as a dumb jock, Matt also takes his academics very seriously, and is a very smart guy. He may be an introvert, but he thinks he has what it takes to win Marooned.
• Natalia “Talia” Grey, 24, Audio Mixer
  • Talia has never been confident in herself since she was a child, as she had two workaholic parents who showered her with unattainable expectations in Middle and High School, both wanting her to become a scientist, while she always had a dream to pursue music. Her parents never approved, and scoffed at her every time she tried to show them something, so she spent long nights in her room honing her craft, and never showing anyone over fear of what they would think. One of her only friends, and eventual boyfriend stumbled upon some of her mixes of songs, and sent it to a few music colleges without her knowing, and she was shocked to receive a scholarship to a huge music school in LA in the mail, which she immediately took to go follow her passion. Now fresh out of college, she may know what her career path will be, but she lacks the social connections to get employed in the industry, so she hopes she can play Marooned to get her name out there and hopefully gain some confidence around others.
• Ryan Brown, 27, Software Engineer
  • He was adopted at birth and was raised with 5 other siblings. He is extremely grateful towards his adoptive family and wants to thank them by winning. Unfortunately, he faced a lot of racism growing up due to being raised by a white family in a very conservatively white city, but he managed to impress most of his tormentors with his intelligence. Though very smart, Ryan is pretty reserved and wants to use this as an experience to test his social skills

THE SEASON
*I apologize to u/swoldow for misspelling their character’s name in the sim.
Episode 1: After making a long trek through the savannah both tribes reach their tribe campsite and begin setting up camp. On the Boran tribe the building of the tribe camp is mostly harmonious although Toni and Ray do start butting heads a little. Meanwhile on the Samburu tribe there is a clear power struggle between Leo and Jeremy. Both think that they have what it takes to be the leader of the tribe and neither is willing to back down from that position. Crystal and Kaylee both side with Leo thinking that he should be the tribe leader while Matt and Kathy side with Jeremy and think that he should be the tribe leader. Ryan and Talia both dislike the conflict going on in the tribe and decide to stay neutral. At the immunity challenge Samburu manages to win despite the tension they have at camp. When Boran gets back from the immunity challenge Ray accuses Toni of being the reason that they lost the challenge. Toni does not take this well and begins screaming at Ray. Ray does not back down and soon they are in the middle of a huge argument. Right before things get physical Al and Wallace step in and separate the two. It is clear that for the sake of the tribe either Toni or Ray need to go and because Toni is perceived to be weaker than Ray in challenges she is seen as less valuable so at tribal council Toni is unanimously voted out of the tribe.
Episode 2: Without Toni Boran is once again harmonious and this causes them to go into the next immunity as strong as ever and win. Over on Samburu Leo and Jeremy’s battle for dominance leads them to target each other. Leo still has Cris and Kaylee on his side and the two of them agree to vote for Jeremy. Matt still has Kathy and Matt on his side and the two of them agree to vote for Leo. This leaves Ryan and Talia in the middle and forces them to end their neutrality by picking a side. The two of them decide to do what they believe will keep the tribe strong so they decide to keep Leo the pro wrestler and vote out Jeremy. At tribal council Jeremy is voted out in a 5-3 vote.
Episode 3: After the last vote Kathy and Matt are clearly at the bottom of the Samburu tribe. At the immunity challenge Boran wins, sending Samburu to their second tribal council. Back at camp it seems clear that either Kathy or Matt will be the next person voted out. The new majority alliance of Leo, Ryan, Kaylee, Cris, and Talia come together to discuss whether they should vote out Kathy or Matt first. They come to the conclusion that they should vote out Matt first because he seems like more of a fighter and they know that he has the potential to stir up trouble in the future if he’s still around. After that conversation the vote seems obvious but Kaylee didn’t come to Marooned to play an obvious game. She views Kathy and Matt as people who she could potentially work with down the line. Talia on the other hand is someone who Kaylee doesn’t trust at all. Kaylee tries to convince Cris and Leo to go along with her new plan and blindside Talia. At first they think that Kaylee’s new plan is crazy but they slowly realize that she’s right. Talia is the type of person who will flip on them as soon as the merge comes so at tribal council they turn on her and Talia is blindsided in a 5-2 vote.
Episode 4: Ryan is shocked and out of the loop after the last tribal council. He recognises that he’s going to have to step up his game or he’s going to end up blindsided just like Natalia. At the immunity challenge the Boron tribe wins for the third time in a row sending Samburu back to tribal council. Ryan knows that he could be in trouble because he was left out of the loop on the last vote but luckily his social connections on the tribe are strong enough that nobody bothers targeting him. Instead Leo decides to target Matt because he thinks that Matt poses the biggest threat to his leadership role. Leo is easily able to get Ryan and Kaylee on board with the plan. In addition Kathy realizes that her alliance with Matt is a sinking ship and decides to get on board with Leo and vote for Matt. Cris on the other hand doesn’t want to vote out Matt. She would rather keep the tribe strong and vote out Kathy. Unfortunately she is not able to get anyone else on board with her plan and at tribal council Matt is voted out in a 4-2 vote.
Episode 5: In the biggest twist in the history of Marooned each tribe is told to select 3 tribe members to represent their tribe. Katrina, Kiara, and Wallace all volunteer to be the representatives for Boron. Samburu decides to have their 3 women represent their tribe. These 6 people are given new buffs and forced to switch tribes. At the immunity challenge the Boron tribe wins the first immunity challenge as new tribes. Back at Samburu Ryan and Leo know that they are in trouble being outnumbered by the original Boron people 3-2. Ryan decides to fight to stay in the game so he tells the Boron people about how Leo is the leader of the Samburu people and is a huge threat moving forward. Kiara doesn’t like the way that Ryan ratted out his tribe by giving away their information and thinks that they should give him some Karma and vote him out but Wallace and Katrina are more focused on getting rid of a big threat and want to vote out Leo so at tribal council Leo is voted out in a 3-2 vote.
Episode 6: On the Samburu tribe Ryan is the clear underdog being the only original Samburu person left on his tribe but there is clear dissension between Katrina and Kiara giving him some hope that he may be able to survive if they don’t win the next immunity challenge. At the immunity challenge Samburu finally wins immunity for the first time since day 3 sending Boran to tribal council. Over on Boran the three Samburu girls appear to be outnumbered by the original Boran people and therefore you would expect them to be on the bottom of the tribe but that couldn’t be further from the truth. In reality Al and Ray haven’t been getting along for the past 10 days and want to take eachother out. Marilyn is in an alliance with Al and Alix is in an alliance with Ray leaving the Samburu girls in the middle acting as swing votes. In the end the Samburu girls like Ray better than Al so at tribal council they all vote for Al and Al is voted out of the game in a 5-2 vote.
Episode 7: The two tribes finally come together and merge into one tribe called Moto Maji. At the immunity challenge Ray wins the first individual immunity challenge of the season guaranteeing himself a spot at the final 9. Back at camp Wallace, Katrina, and Marilyn want all of the original Boran people to put their differences aside and work together to pick off the original Samburu people one by one starting with Cris but Ray, Kiara, and Alix have zero intentions of sticking with the original Boran people and instead form a new 7 person alliance with the original Samburu people and at the first tribal council of the merge this 7 person alliance works together and blindsides Marilyn putting Ray in a power position.
Episode 8: Katrina and Wallace are pissed at the rest of the original Boran people for not sticking with them and going Boran strong for the rest of the game. At the immunity challenge Alix wins individual immunity. Back at camp Ray feels like he has full control of the tribe and decides that he wants to vote out Cris so he tells everyone to vote for Cris. Most people are on board with this plan but Wallace and Katrina are still angry at Ray for betraying them at the last tribal council and are gunning for him hard. They pull in Cris in order to have 3 votes for Ray but they still need at least 2 more people to vote with them. Cris has a talk with Ryan during which she learns that Ryan doesn’t like Ray so she is able to convince him to join them and vote for Ray. They still need one more vote but aren’t sure who they can trust. They don’t want word of their plans to get back to Ray and are worried that Kaylee or Kathy might spill the beans so they decide to try to convince Ray’s close ally Kiara to flip and help them blindside Ray. Katrina has a long talk with Kiara and is able to convince her that if she works with them to blindside Ray she’ll take her to the final 2. Kiara really likes this plan so at tribal council she decides to work with them and in the biggest blindside of the season Ray is voted out in a 5-4 vote.
Episode 9: After the last tribal council everyone is shocked that Kiara flipped on her closest ally Ray and everyone starts calling her a snake. At the immunity challenge Kaylee wins individual immunity ensuring her safety at the next tribal council. After the intense past two tribal councils nobody wants to deal with anymore crazy scrambling and instead everyone wants to go with an easy vote. As it turns out the easy vote is voting out Kiara due to the fact that everyone considers her to be a snake. Everyone quickly jumps on board the vote out Kiara band wagon and when Kiara finds out about this she is furious at Katrina for going back on her word and not taking her to final 2 like Katrina said she would so at tribal council Kiara votes for Katrina but everyone else votes for Kiara and Kiara becomes the second member of the jury.
Episode 10: For the first time since the merge the original Samburu people have the numbers and the four of them decide that they are going to take advantage of this. At the immunity challenge Wallace wins immunity. Back at camp the four original Samburu people come together and decide to vote out Katrina. Alex decides to join them and vote for Katrina too because he doesn’t like Wallace or Katrina. Wallace and Katrina find out what's going on and try to convince Ryan and Cris to flip back to their side and help them blindside Kathy but Ryan and Cris decide to stick with the Samburu people and at tribal council Katrina is voted out.
Episode 11: After the last tribal council Wallace has no allies left in the game but he talks about how he’s going to keep on fighting and won’t give up any time soon. At the immunity challenge Wallace does everything he can to win but falls short and Ryan wins individual immunity. Back at camp Wallace starts talking to people about what a big threat Kylee is. When Alix hears about this he realizes that he doesn’t want to get stuck sitting next to Kylee at the final tribal council so he agrees to vote for her. Wallace then attempts to convince Ryan and Cris to jump on board with him and blindside Kylee. Ryan is totally on board with this but Cris isn’t and Cris convinces Ryan to stick with the Samburu so at tribal council Wallace is voted out in a 4-2 vote.
Episode 12: Alix shot himself in the foot at the last tribal council by voting with Wallace and is now clearly on the bottom of the tribe. At the immunity challenge Kylee wins immunity securing herself a spot in the finale. Back at camp it seems clear that the 4 Samburu people are going to work together to vote out Alix but Kylee is worried that if it’s the four Samburu people are sitting in the final four it would become Cris and Ryan vs her and Kathy. If that were the case and Cris won immunity then her and Ryan would be able to vote Kaylee out because Ryan doesn’t have any previous votes cast against him and Kaylee has 2. Because she is trying to avoid this Kaylee decides to make a new final 3 alliance with herself, Kathy, and Alix. At tribal council this new 3 person alliance pulls off another huge blindside when they vote out Ryan in a 3-2 vote.
Finale Part 1: After the last tribal council’s blindside Cris knows that she needs to win immunity in order to stay in the game but at the immunity challenge Alex wins immunity essentially sealing Cris’s fate. Back at camp Cris makes one last attempt to stay in the game. She explains to Alix that if he goes to the final 3 with Kaylee and Kathy and he doesn’t win immunity he will 100% be voted out of the game. Unfortunately Alex is in denial and still believes that he has a shot at being brought to the end by Kathy or Kaylee and at tribal council Cris is voted out in a 3-1 vote.
Finale Part 2: Kaylee wins the final immunity challenge. For her the decision of who to take to the end is easy. Her and Kathy have been close allies ever since the swap so at tribal council she votes out Alix.
Final Tribal Council: At the final tribal council most of the jury respects both of the girl’s games and believes that they are both very deserving of being in the final two however, they can’t deny that Kaylee played a much more well rounded game. Whereas Kathy only really played the social game Kaylee played a great physical, strategic, and social game. This leads to Kaylee winning in a 4-3 vote.
**My Thoughts:**>! I LOVED this season. From start to end the season was entertaining and full of great blindsides. The Ray blindside was probably the highlight of the season but I also loved the Ryan blindside, the Talia blindside, and the rivalry between Jeremy and Leo. The cast of this season was also top notch and I found almost every single person on it to be memorable in some way. Kaylee is another fantastic winner who played an extraordinary game. Her taking out Ryan at the final 5 was really smart and I would definitely consider that to be her signature move though her blindsiding Talia in episode three was also pretty iconic. There are so many people in this cast who I would love to see return for all stars and I’m betting that at least a couple of people on this cast are going to become legends.!<
Potential All Stars: Ryan, Kaylee, Katrina, Ray, Wallace, Kiara
Potential Second Chancers: Cris, Jeremy, Leo, Alix, Talia
Past Seasons:Borneo
The Australian Outback
Stay tuned for the next season of Marooned, Marooned: Marquesas
I’d love to hear what you guys thought about the season in the comments!

NCAA Football Week 5 - MAC's Analysis, Predictions and Odds
2021 College Football National Championship Odds + Pick
Clemson +200 Alabama +400 Georgia +2000 LSU +10000 Notre Dame +4000 Florida +1200 Oklahoma +2800 Texas +4000 Auburn +6600 Texas A&M +5000 (MAC's Power Pick) Miami (FL) +8000 Oklahoma State +10000
MAC's NCAAF Red Alert Action - 10/03 - No. 13 Texas A&M (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 3:30 PM ET Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL TV: CBS Spread: Alabama -17 Money Lines: Texas A&M +605 / Alabama -855 Total: 51.5
Texas A&M Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Ainias Smith 1 Rushing: Isaiah Spiller 117 Passing: Kellen Mond 189 Receiving: Caleb Chapman 40 Sacks: Micheal Clemons 1.5 Interceptions: Leon O'Neal Jr. 1
Alabama Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Najee Harris 3 Rushing Najee: Harris 98 Passing: Mac Jones 249 Receiving: Jaylen Waddle 134 Sacks: Labryan Ray 1.0 Interceptions: Thomas Fletcher 0
Quick Trends: Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Aggies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games on grass. Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Texas A&M busted up Vanderbilt 17-12 last weekend as quarterback Kellen Mond aired it out for the small 189 yards and got himself a touchdown. A&M running back Isaiah Spiller grabbed himself the small 117 rushing yards in the unwatchable low scoring game.
Alabama smacked up Missouri 28-19 Bama quarterback Mac Jones passed for 249 yards and put 2 in the end zone, while running back Najee Harris put in his 98 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. This week both teams meet up for a good ol boys SEC game in Tuscaloosa.
The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, but on the flipside 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Alabama has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October, but just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Tide can go get it done but reports coming in from our affiliates are ambivalent to give all those points away on the road at best, our consensus is going with Texas A&M to cover the chalk mainly because of the edge at quarterback.
MAC's Game Prediction: Alabama 31 Texas A&M 27 Play: Texas A&M +17
10/03 - No. 18 Oklahoma (1-1) at Iowa State (1-1)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA TV: ABC Spread: Oklahoma -7.5 Money Lines: Iowa State +210 / Oklahoma -260 Total: 62.5
Quick Trends: Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Cyclones are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Sooners are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Sooners Team Leaders: Touchdowns Seth McGowan 2 Rushing Seth McGowan 134 Passing Spencer Rattler 677 Receiving Marvin Mims 111 Sacks DaShaun White 2.5 Interceptions Delarrin Turner-Yell 1
Cyclones Team Leaders: Touchdowns Breece Hall 4 Rushing Breece Hall 257 Passing Brock Purdy 356 Receiving Xavier Hutchinson 69 Sacks JaQuan Bailey 3.5 Interceptions Mike Rose 1
Oklahoma ran through Missouri State 48-0 in their opener, then hit a wall on Saturday with a depressing 38-35 loss against K-State as a insanely obnoxious 28-point favorite. Quarterback Spencer Rattler some how passed for 387 yards with four touchdowns even with 3 costly interceptions.
Iowa State laid down against Louisiana Lafayette in their opener, and bumbled a cover against a suspect TCU team, final 37-34 as 3.5-point road favorite they should have had no problem with a soft line like that. Quarterback Brock Purdy got off 211 yards 1 touchdown, running back Breece Hall got 154 yards and 38 attempts and 3 trips to the end zone.
The Sooners are paying the books at 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall has Vegas building skyscrapers with bettors money, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, I mean these guys are a bunch of bums when it comes to getting the money. Now if you've been putting your action on Iowa State as a underdog you've made some cash, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home dog, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss, I mean these guys are a golden egg if you play the line right.
MAC is setting the standard and putting the business on the table, sharps and early money aren't making a dent in the line because oddsmakers made a tight one this week. MAC's looking at Spencer Rattle as the x factor, if he steps up this could very well be a easy win + cover for the Sooners, Iowa State is getting the 7.5 and MAC smells something fishy about the hook, play the over set at 62.5 up from 61.5 and don't be scared to give the points because Rattler will look like a stud this week against a mediocre Cyclone D. watch "Brock Purdy Lips" gets manhandled by DaShaun White.
Iowa State Injury Report - T. Milton WR - Ques Sat - Milton was unavailable for the previous game due to a lower-body injury and it is unknown if he will line up versus Oklahoma on Saturday. R. Hudson OL - Ques Sat - Undisclosed T. Downing OL - Ques Sat - Downing missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status for Saturday's contest against Oklahoma remains up in the air.
MAC's Game Prediction: Oklahoma 45 Iowa State 24 Play: Over 62.5 Play: Oklahoma -7.5
No. 7 Auburn (1-0) at No. 4 Georgia (1-0)
Auburn made bacon out of the boys down in Kentucky 29-13 last weekend to cash in as a 6.5-point home favorite, big Bo Nix passed for 233 yards with 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and looking like a god damn stud averaging 6.8 rushing yards a game, MAC would let his daughter and mother date a guy like this, and they got wide receiver Seth Williams coming in catching six passes for 112 yards 2 TDs.
Georgia looked like decent, getting through Arkansas 37-10 last weekend was impressive but not really, QB Stetson Bennett threw for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and surprisingly no picks. Georgia scored 22 third quarter points to take control after going into the half down 7-5, now that could be good football but MAC is saying fluke and calling shenanigan's.
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA TV: ESPN Spread: Georgia -6.5 Money Lines: Auburn +200 / Georgia -250 Total: 45
Auburn Team Leaders - Touchdowns D.J. Williams 1 Rushing Bo Nix 34 Passing Bo Nix 233 Receiving Seth Williams 112 Sacks Daquan Newkirk 1.0 Interceptions Roger McCreary 1
Georgia Team Leaders - Touchdowns Zamir White 1 (MAC's #BumAlert Prospect) Rushing Zamir White 71 Passing Stetson Bennett 211 Receiving Kearis Jackson 62 Sacks Nolan Smith 1.5 Interceptions Richard Lecounte 2
Auburn gets the money early in the season and has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 October games, but be cautious because Bulldogs are money makers too, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Tigers just can't get through Georgia and have sucked against the spread going 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Georgia and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Now MAC would normally stay away from a game like this but it's hard to bet against big Bo Nixon and that up tempo offense. Georgia -6.5 is a suckers bet, take those points and ride Bo's back like the rest of the Tigers!
MAC's Game Prediction: Georgia 17 Auburn 27 Play: Auburn +6.5 Play: Under 45.5 (Get That Hook)