Megathread: President Donald Trump announces he has tested positive for Coronavirus | Part II
President Donald Trump announced he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the virus and will begin their quarantine and recovery process immediately. The news comes after it was announced that close presidential aide Hope Hicks tested positive Wednesday evening. Megathread Part I
Tips, tricks & anything else that has helped you become a more profitable bettor?
Whether you’re one year into the game or over a decade in, what are some of the tips and tricks you’ve picked up along the way that have helped you become a more profitable bettor? Seen a couple posts on here lately from people looking for tips on gambling, bank roll management, etc. Figured I’d add in some things I’ve learned that have helped me this season. 1). Figure out your unit size and stick to it religiously, win or lose. I would say this is the first and most important step you should take before placing a bet. A good rule of thumb is to make your unit size around 5% of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000, then your one unit should be $50. And when making bets, try to be consistent with the unit size you’re betting. Personally, I never go over 2U on one single bet. Far too often I’ve seen someone bet $100/bet and go on a four-bet win streak, then on that fifth bet they decide to risk it all and lose. Now, instead of being 4-1 (+$300ish), you’re now 4-1 (-$100). 2). Start tracking your bets. We’ve all had that moment trying to navigate to the “graded bets” section of our Sportsbook to look back at past bets, only to find an unorganized rambling of words. Instead, try keeping track of your bets in an organized manner. There are several apps out there that help with tracking bets (i.e. Action Network, BetQL, etc.) but an Excel spreadsheet works just as good. This is how I set up mine. This helps for several reasons. For one, it helps me ensure I’m keeping my units bet consistent. But it also helps me keep track of how much I’ve won (or lost). For instance, when I first started out, seeing that I was minus-$1000 helped bring me to the moment where I had to tell myself that either I need to stop gambling or I need to seriously reconsider my approach. 3). Don’t be a full-on parlay whore or a teaser slut. It’s easy to get sucked into the lure of the parlays and teasers. As a former whore/slut to these sucker bets, I know. Sure, winning $2,000 off of a $100 parlay sounds a lot better than winning $90 off a $100 straight bet. However, the probability of hitting one compared to the other is a heck of lot lower as well. But if playing parlays and teasers is an itch you just need to scratch, consider playing them in smaller units. I personally play one parlay a week, but I keep it at 0.25u and I limit it to three teams max and when I play teasers, I only do two-teamers (-110 or -120 depending on your book). 4). Never make emotional or angry bets. Ever. In simpler terms: Don’t chase losses. In betting, you’ll have winning nights and you’ll have losing nights. But the main difference between profitable bettors and losing bettors? One knows how to take a losing night on the chin and live to fight another day while the other foolishly adds on to the losses. Sure, you might get lucky and hit a desperation bet to recoup some of the losses. But at that point, you’re making bets purely off of emotion—or under the influence of alcohol—instead of off research. More often than not, you’re not going to like the result that comes with that style of betting. 5). Don’t pay for picks. You’re already giving the house juice, why add more by paying someone else daily or monthly for their picks? Instead, look into purchasing resources that are not only far more cheaper but also can help you make better-informed picks (i.e. Pro Football Focus, Action Network, Sportsline, etc.) Once you start to educate yourself on line movements, knowing which side the smart money is coming in and which sides are getting steamed, you’ll start to make educated bets on your own. 6). Learn from your mistakes and successes. At the end of the week, I always like to take a look back at what worked and what didn’t. If a bet lost, I try and look back and see what I read wrong. For instance, I was on the Saints spread in their MNF game against the Raiders. All the experts, all the smart money was on the Raiders. Even the line movement on the day of was going the Raiders way (from -5.5 down to -4). In hindsight, with the smart money and my gut being on opposite sides, this should have been a “no play” for me. As a result, moving forward I usually highlight 3 or 4 games I like around Tuesday and keep track of the lines posted on my books, the bet% and money% and anything else. Then when game day approaches, if everything aligns, I place the bet. If not, I hold. As they say, sometimes the best bet you make is the one you don’t place. That’s really all that jumps out to me. Anyone else have other things they’ve learned along the way?
AITA for filing charges against my roommate and suing her for my hospital bill?
This happened several years ago. I was a 20F and in college. I was living with my two best friends. One of them was moving out so that she could move in with her boyfriend. I placed an ad looking for another roommate. That's how I met Erin. Before she moved in she informed me that she was vegetarian but she wouldn't have a problem if other roommates weren't. She moved into our apartment a month later. The next day after she moved in she cooked breakfast for us. I was surprised. We didn't ask her to and by her own words "she wanted to do something nice". She had made pancakes, bacon strips and hash browns. I am deathly allergic to few things. So, I immediately asked her what was in the food, but I didn't mention my allergies (huge mistake). She listed the ingredients and I didn't find anything I was allergic to. [Edit: she told me it was regular bacon. Not that it was fake bacon or that it had soy]. I start eating and everything tastes a little off. I try the bacon and definitely something is wrong. At this point, she does a " Ta da" and smugly told us "I bet it tastes exactly like meat". I am freaking out now. I told her I am severely allergic to soy and asked her whether there was any soy. Now she is apologising and says she didn't know and that she is sorry she lied and blah blah. I am experiencing anaphylactic shock: throat closing up, dizzy, the works. My bestfriend freaks out and calls an ambulance. I had to stay in the hospital for 2 days. With the US healthcare, the ambulance + my hospital stay racked up a lot of money. Money that I didn't have. In the meantime, I also filed a complaint with the police. Food tampering is a felony. I had a lucky break: my best friend had filmed the breakfast to post it on Instagram and she got the whole thing in video. In the end Erin had to plead guilty to some low degree of felony. She didn't get any jail time, but got community service. Once she was found guilty, I sued her for the hospital fees. I won that one too. [I did all the legal things under the advise of my Uncle's friend who is a lawyer. He said something about how it will be easy to sue if she had a guilty charge. I also did not have any contact with Erin during any of this under the advise of my laywer]. Erin's scholarship was cancelled and she had to drop out. She also went into dent paying medical fees. I saw her on Facebook few days ago and she is still down on her luck. I guess a felony charge makes it very hard, no matter how small the charge was. I know she is the asshole for lying about food. I wanna know whether I am the asshole for everything I did after. Because bottom line is, I basically screwed a person's life because they put wrong ingredients on breakfast that they made only "to do something nice". Edit: You guys are bitching like as if I wrote the law on food tampering or like I was the PP who decided what charges to file or like as I if I was the judge/jury that gave the verdict. This is a snorefest. Throwing the throwaway account. You guys can keep whining all you want but that doesn't change the verdict.
This one happened to me today and I can not stop laughing at it. Phone call regarding wifi not working in a lady's room but works everywhere else in the house.
$Me = Zach from campfire stories (look it up) People keep asking, I am not him. Just read my lines in his voice. $CU = Clueless User or some snooty art girl $Me - Thanks for calling IT may I have your name please? $CU - Its Clueless User.
I input her name into the thing and it pops up red indicating a VIP who expects to be given whatever she wants. She usually gets it too.
$ME - So how may I help you today? $CU - So this will sound really weird and crazy, but I swear my wifi does not work right. Everywhere else I can work just fine, but as soon as I bring it home, it just stops working.
Oh fun one of THESE calls. Probably an all metal house or an old as dirt house.
$Me - So is it everywhere in your house? $CU - Yes... NO actually last night I worked while watching netflix on the tv in the living room and had zero issues. $Me - Well thats a good place to start. Lets go into your living room and test the wifi. $CU - Sure thing.
We test the wifi in every room in her house and find that the signal degrades significantly the instant she steps into her room.
$Me - OK this is going to sound like some James Bond scifi stuff but I bet something in your room is causing EM interference. Have you moved anything new into the room? I mean anything. A lamp, a microwave, coffee maker, mini fridge, or even non electronic stuff like metal? $CU - Who has a mini fridge in their room? (Laughs) $Me - I actually keep drinks in mine by my desk while I work. $CU - Oh. Well there is nothing like that. Plus the router is in the other room. Only thing over there are my art projects. $Me - OK. I am reaching WAY out there now. Is there a lot of metal content in that wall? $CU - No but there is a lot of metal on it. $Me - How so? You do metal work for your art? $CU - No I use it to hang my art. $Me - Its probably not it, but lets go ahead and send me a picture of it. I doubt that is whats causing it but might as well send me a picture.
She takes the picture and sends it to me. In a roughly 6x8 foot section of her wall is a mounted chain link fence with these little cut up coke cans as art hanging off of it. It took me a full minute looking at the absurdity of the picture in front me when the light came on.
$Me - Mam, that's a faraday cage. Well... sort of. $CU - What is a faraday cage.
I hear from the background. "I TOLD YOU!"
$CU - Ignore that, thats my son. We keep yelling at him to move the modem and router into our room but he says the fence is the problem. $Me - Well to be honest, it kinda is. No its not kinda, it definitely is. $CU - Huh? $Me - So a faraday cage is what is used to block signals. Basically any linked metal cage can create a field where signals have trouble passing through. $CU - This is that James Bond crap you were talking about? $Me - I mean kinda? Its not a full faraday cage because its just 1 side. Its why your wifi works but constantly cuts out and stays at half strength. A faraday cage has to actually enclose something to properly shield it from radio and em waves. But that chain link fence is in direct line of sight with the router. $CU - I... don't see how that is possible. It makes no sense. But you, my husband, and my 16 year old son all say the same thing. They all say moving that to the garage will solve my problems. $Me - I agree with your assessment. $CU - Are you willing to put your job on it?
She had me stay on hold for 30 minutes as she got her husband and son to move the art and fence to the garage.
$CU - Ok I am back. Pulling the ethernet cable... Huh that was fast. It instantly connected to the wifi. $Me - OK lets get connected again.
Ran ping test with -t -l 1400 and had zero dropped pings. Before it was every 3rd one. Speed test gave her the full speed for her area.
$CU - That was strange, well it is working now. How often you think this happens? $Me - I can legitimately state that I have never once run into this issue in my entire career. $CU - Seriously? $Me - Yup. Now I have run into weird things before. $CU - Like what? $ME - (All true stories.) In my parent's house, if you stand in the laundry room on wifi and I open both the fridge and freezer door in the kitchen, your phone will lose wifi connection. I had a friend who had to move his router 5 feet because a new lamp his mom loved was causing line of sight interference with his laptop. And my uncle decided to build an all metal house. Metal beams, metal roofing, and metal doors. He gets zero reception inside his house and has to run ethernet cables all over his home. $CU - So would running this ethernet cable through the wall be a better solution? $Me - Infinitely better.
I thanked her and immediately shared the picture with everyone on my team. Only 3 had to be told what a faraday cage was. I am so proud of my team.
The NINE agencies Trump is using to corrupt the election
Over the past six months, Trump has been making increasingly false, absurd, and dangerous claims - from saying the “only way” he’ll lose in November is in a rigged election to claiming his opponents illegally “spied” on his campaign. However, not only is he making these claims, the president and his cronies are corrupting the power of government to inflate his lies to the level of truth and oppress any evidence to the contrary. With the help of loyalists atop every federal agency, Trump has perverted the government to serve his own re-election desires. This list is nowhere near comprehensive. There are many more examples that could be given, but I tried to keep it short enough that it is still readable.
ODNI and Intelligence Community
Limit disclosure of knowledge of Russian sabotage. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, led by Trump loyalist John Ratcliffe, canceled future in-person briefings on election security issues to the congressional intelligence committees. Instead, the ODNI will provide written briefings only. The change came after a classified briefing in which top counterintelligence official Bill Evanina told House members that Russia is again trying to boost President Donald Trump’s reelection and denigrate his opponent, Joe Biden. Trump was enraged after details of the briefing leaked to the public, revealing that his own administration’s intelligence officers contradict his repeated assertions that Russia is not interfering on his behalf. Reminder: Trump fired the previous DNI, Joseph Maguire, after learning that one of Maguire’s staff members gave a 2020 election security briefing to the House Intelligence Committee. In the briefing, Maguire aide Shelby Pierson alerted committee members that Russia was interfering in the 2020 campaign in an effort to tip the election in Trump’s favor. In firing Maguire, Trump sent a warning to the entire intelligence community: Trump’s opinion and electoral prospects must be prioritized over facts.
Department of Homeland Security
Twist intelligence to support campaign and personal motives. Election interference Former acting Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Intelligence and Analysis Brian Murphy filed a whistleblower complaint alleging that Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf interfered with intelligence assessments in order to benefit Trump politically. In May 2020, Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf told Murphy to “cease providing intelligence assessments on the threat of Russian interference in the United States, and instead start reporting on interference activities by China and Iran.” Wolf told Murphy those instructions came directly from the White House. In July 2020, DHS chief of staff John Gountanis intervened to stop publication of an intelligence bulletin warning about a Russian disinformation plot to “denigrate” the mental health of Joe Biden. On July 8, Murphy said, he met with Wolf, who told him that the intelligence notification should be “held” because it “made the President look bad.” Trump not only attempts to hide intelligence that contradicts the false narrative he continues to push about China actively interfering to boost Biden, according to Murphy Trump’s officials directed him to prioritize intelligence on China and Iran.
It’s disturbing enough for a president and his allies to distort intelligence assessments for political gain, but Murphy’s account suggests something more nefarious—that intelligence authorities and positions of public trust might have been used to engineer the narrative from the outset.
Campaign agitprop Murphy’s complaint also details that Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli ordered him to modify intelligence assessments to make the threat of white supremacy “appear less severe” and include information on violent “left-wing” groups and Antifa. The reason given was “to ensure they matched up with the public comments by President Trump on the subject of ANTIFA and ‘anarchist’ groups.” Trump has spent months fear-mongering about imagined mobs of far-left activists coming to attack the suburbs. On Saturday, the Trump campaign sent out an “ANTIFA ALERT” text message to supporters, saying “they’ll attack your homes if Joe’s elected. Pres Trump needs you to become a Diamond Club Member.”
Customs and Border Patrol
Cause unrest in Democratic-cities to assist in fear campaign. Border Patrol agents were among the federal forces sent to Portland to confront and arrest protestors over the summer. Gil Kerlikowske, former commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection under President Barack Obama, said BORTAC, the unit dispatched to the city, is chiefly trained to pursue fugitives and criminals. "They're clearly the wrong group to be doing this.” The violence they provoked was featured in Trump’s campaign ads and RNC nomination acceptance speech. “Trump has ratcheted up political ties to border patrol to another level,” Todd Miller, the author of Empire of Borders, said. “He based his whole 2016 campaign around this, and it is now at the core of his 2020 re-election bid. These are his people.” Most recently, the Border Patrol produced and published a dramatized video showing a Spanish-speaking attacker stabbing and killing a man in a dark alley after escaping from U.S. agents - “a clip apparently created to dramatize President Trump’s depiction of migrants as fearsome criminals.”
Justice Department
Weaponize the law to harm opponents and save himself. Investigate Trump’s rivals Trump and Attorney General Bill Barr are reportedly pressuring U.S. Attorney John Durham and his team to release the results of their probe before the November election. Durham was appointed by Barr to investigate the origins of the Mueller investigation and the FBI’s Russia probe. Last week, a highly respected and experienced prosecutor, Nora R. Dannehy, resigned as a senior aide to Durham due to concern over this improper political pressure. Trump has publicly expressed impatience with the Durham investigation, saying there should be more prosecutions and disclosures of information that would damage his political rivals. Last month, Barr indicated the DOJ would not respect an informal policy against taking investigative steps 60 days before Election Day. In a speech on Wednesday, Barr essentially rebuked the Mueller investigation and the cases it spawned: “Smart, ambitious lawyers have sought to amass glory by prosecuting prominent public figures since the Roman Republic. It is utterly unsurprising that prosecutors continue to do so today to the extent the Justice Department’s leaders will permit it. As long as I am Attorney General, we will not.” Assist Trump’s allies Attorney General Barr has explicitly interfered in at least two criminal cases against Trump’s allies, helping the president promote the narrative that the Obama administration (in which Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden served) acted inappropriately. In February, Barr overruled career federal prosecutors in order to recommend the former Trump campaign advisor Roger Stone receive a lesser prison sentence. The entire team of prosecutors resigned from the criminal case due to the Justice Department’s interference. Trump ultimately commuted Stone’s 40-month sentence, much less than the original recommendation of seven to nine years in prison. Then, in May, the Justice Department filed a request to drop the criminal case against Trump's first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, despite the fact that Flynn twice - before two separate judges - admitted to lying to the FBI. In response, nearly 2,000 former DOJ employees called for Barr’s resignation, saying he had “assaulted the rule of law.” Politically-motivated actions Barr reportedly told prosecutors to explore aggressive charges against people arrested at recent demonstrations across the US, even suggesting bringing a rarely used sedition charge, reserved for those who have plotted a threat that posed imminent danger to government authority. The AG asked prosecutors in the Justice Department’s civil rights division to explore whether they could bring criminal charges against Mayor Jenny Durkan of Seattle for not acting immediately to disrupt the police-free zone created by protestors over the summer. According to the Associated Press, charges were also explored against city officials in Portland, Oregon, for the continued protests in the area. The Justice Department is targeting Democratic governors for coronavirus outbreaks in state-owned nursing homes. The four governors - PA’s Tom Wolf, MI’s Whitmer, NJ’s Murphy, and NY’s Cuomo - are frequent targets of Trump for not lifting pandemic restrictions as fast as he’d like. Republican-run states have very similar rules about nursing home admissions yet are not under DOJ investigation. Just yesterday, Barr publicly bashed states that still have restrictions in place, saying that “stay at home orders” are “like house arrest.” Incredibly, Barr added: “Other than slavery, which was a different kind of restraint, this is the greatest intrusion on civil liberties in American history."
More: In April, Barr issued a memorandum directing the nation’s U.S. attorneys to be on the lookout for public health rules that might, among other things, constitute “undue interference with the national economy.”
CDC and FDA
Rush coronavirus treatments to save his election chances. At the end of March, the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to allow hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for coronavirus COVID-19 treatment after weeks of pressure from Trump. For instance, eight days before the EUA, Trump tweeted that hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin could be "one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine" and should "be put in use immediately." Ultimately, the FDA revoked its EUA in June after more evidence revealed hydroxychloroquine can cause “serious cardiac adverse events.” Experts say the FDA again caved to political pressure when it approved an expanded use of convalescent plasma to treat covid patients, the night before the Republican National Convention. Despite concerns over plasma’s effectiveness, Trump called Dr. Francis S. Collins, the director of the N.I.H., to tell him: “Get it done by Friday.” When it wasn’t, Trump took to Twitter to accuse those at the FDA of being part of the “deep state” withholding an approval “to delay the answer until after November 3.” The next day, the FDA announced its approval. Finally, and most obviously, Trump has pressured the FDA to approve of a coronavirus vaccine before the November election. Experts across the board have said there is no way our government and existing infrastructure will be ready to distribute, administer, and track doses by November.
Trump, Sept. 2: "[It's] going to be done in a very short period of time -- could even have it during the month of October… We’re going to have a vaccine very soon, maybe even before a very special date. You know what date I’m talking about” (clip 1 and clip 2.
Just yesterday, Trump contradicted CDC chief Robert Redfield’s timetable for the vaccine, saying the doctor was “confused” in his congressional testimony.
"If you're asking me when is it going to be generally available to the American public, so we can begin to take advantage of vaccine to get back to our regular life, I think we're probably looking at third, late second quarter, third quarter 2021," Redfield told a Senate appropriations subcommittee.
"I think he made a mistake when he said that. It's just incorrect information," Trump said about Redfield's vaccine timeline. Following Trump’s repudiation, a CDC spokesman walked back Redfield’s statements to be in line with the president’s. "He was not referring to the time period when Covid-19 vaccine doses would be made available to all Americans," the spokesman said.
Department of Health and Human Services
Convince the public that the pandemic is gone. DHS is bidding out a more than $250 million contract to a communications firm as it seeks to “defeat despair and inspire hope” about the coronavirus pandemic. Among the goals of the contract: “sharing best practices for businesses to operate in the new normal and instill confidence to return to work and restart the economy.” In other words: exactly what Trump has tried to project onto the nation despite his failure to effectively contain the spread of the coronavirus. As the House Oversight Committee has expressed, “rather than focus on planning and executing a national strategy to contain the coronavirus, the Trump Administration is using a quarter of a billion dollars in taxpayer money to fund what appears to be a political propaganda campaign just two months before a presidential election.” Remember, the pandemic crisis still gripping America is Trump’s own creation. Olivia Troye, Pence’s top aide on the White House coronavirus task force, went public yesterday with her firsthand experiences. She relays that throughout the pandemic, Trump was consumed by himself and his prospects in November. “For him, it was all about the election,” Troye said. Instead of trying to help Americans and slow the spread, Trump is spending 250 million taxpayer dollars to try to convince us not to believe our own eyes and ears.
US Postal Service
Discredit vote-by-mail and suppress the vote. President Trump on Thursday continued his months long campaign against mail-in voting this November by tweeting that “MAYHEM” will occur in states that send ballots to all registered voters. In another tweet, Trump falsely asserted that “the Nov 3rd Election result may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED” due to nine states running universal mail-in voting. By casting doubt on mail ballots and the election results, Trump is trying to accomplish two things: (1) persuade voters not to participate in the election, and (2) claim victory prematurely, or even after a decisive loss. To this end, Postmaster DeJoy - a big donor to Trump’s campaign - has sent confusing misinformation to voters in these states that automatically send registered voters ballots by mail. DeJoy has also implemented changes at USPS that significantly slowed the delivery of mail, making it harder for people to vote by mail with confidence and, likely, scaring some people away from voting at all in the middle of the pandemic. Trump is betting on these changes having a bigger impact on Democrats than Republicans, especially considering the fact that he has spent nearly the entire year downplaying the threat of the coronavirus to his base.
Note: Barr is also cranking out false public statements to discredit vote-by-mail, whether it’s falsely claiming it’s vulnerable to a massive foreign-engineered conspiracy or blatantly misrepresenting actual domestic cases of fraud.
National Park Service
Assist in taxpayer funded staging of campaign events. Yes, even the National Park Service has been corrupted by Trump, via former oil industry lobbyist and Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt. Most recently, the NPS produced what appears to be a campaign ad, with no other purpose than promoting Trump. In fact, the words “PRESIDENT TRUMP” in all caps are the first words to appear on screen. The video likely breaks the law:
The federal Anti-Deficiency Act prohibits the use of federal funds for purposes other than those Congress has authorized… if Congress has not authorized the Interior Department to use our money to create campaign ads (and it hasn’t), then the Interior Department cannot legally create campaign ads. In addition to this general prohibition against using funds for unauthorized purposes, there is an express prohibition against propaganda.
Additionally the NPS allowed Trump to take over Mount Rushmore National Memorial for an air and fireworks show ostensibly to celebrate Independence day. In reality, Trump used the event to rail against Democrats, promote his statute-protecting executive order, and warn of a "left-wing cultural revolution." Put differently, it was a campaign event in the middle of a national park. In June, U.S. Park Police (officers of the NPS) took part in forcibly removing peaceful protestors with tear gas and rubber bullets from the area in and around Lafayette Park, a national historic landmark and public place, for the president's photo-op with a bible. And in 2019, the Park Service used $2.5 million in fees paid by national park visitors to fund President Trump's "Salute to America" celebration in the National Mall.
My daughter is devastated, did we do the right thing?
My fiance and I (both 33) have a long-time friend (36F) who lives a carefree lifestyle. My daughter (14) idolizes our friend and I'm fine with that. Recently, for my daughter's birthday, my fiance, our friend, and myself took my daughter to get her nose pierced. I'm not asking for advice on that. Afterward, we went back to our friend's apartment. We were watching a movie when our friend's phone rings and she has a short conversation with someone. She says, "hey I hope it's cool but a new friend of mine wants to come say hi." We've never had an issue with any of her friends and have met many wonderful people through her. The friend (26M) arrives and he's so drunk he can barely have a conversation. My fiance and our friend had had a drink or 2 each but as the DD I did not. We're not big drinkers but my daughter has been around alcohol and isn't interested in it. I'm trying to talk to our friend while fiance is trying to make conversation with the guy friend. The entire time, guy friend is staring at my daughter. I didn't notice until both fiance and my daughter start texting me that this man is making them feel uncomfortable and they want to go home. So I tell our friend that it's late and we're going to head home. At this same time, the guy friend starts saying he's a middle school teacher, he loves school and he bets she has a Tiktok. My daughter says she does know of Tiktok but doesn't have one (it's a lie but she's uncomfortable and I support her keeping her social media private). I'm gathering my things as we say our goodbyes, when my daughter feels uncomfortable enough with this man to get up and leave. He tries to follow her. My fiance puts himself between this man and my daughter and says, "nope." She's putting her shoes on and I hear the guy friend say, "this isn't the hill you want to die on, man." Fiance is taken aback and says yes absolutely this is a hill worth dying on. The guy friend is making fists and trying to get past my fiance to continue trying to ask her for her Tiktok name. Fiance says, "I know what you are," and the guy friend says, "that's a bold accusation," but doesn't stop trying to get to my daughter. I hug my friend and we leave. Walking to the car, my daughter starts saying she's so relieved we left and fiancé is absolutely fuming. To him, the fact that the guy knew exactly what he meant by "i know what you are" was confirmation of his theory that this guy is a creep. On the way home, he calls our friend and says "i think he's a real creep, trust me, get him out of your house". Whether or not she does, we don't know. The next morning, another mutual friend (35M) starts asking questions about what happened. We recount the details to him honestly and he says he was texting with someone who knows the young guy friend and confirms that he's a creep, with screenshots of their conversation. Since then, I've spent time with our long time friend and we were fine but she's upset at my fiance for calling her new friend a pedophile. She claims my fiance was drunk and doesn't know what he thinks he saw. I maintain my stance that I was sober and my daughter was uncomfortable so I don't need any other information to keep new friend away from me and my kid. BTW, we're the boring parents of the friend group, we live in the suburbs and we don't make it into the city to hang out very often. Long time friend texted my daughter and asked for her input. My daughter asked what she should say and I encouraged her to tell the truth, which is what she did. Long time friend says she would never knowingly put her in any danger. I think everything is fine. Long time friend is giving fiance the silent treatment. He sends her a text saying it'll be the last one until she can apologize for choosing the new friend of 1 week over our family. She texts me that she doesn't understand what has happened and she's glad she has new young guy friend to hold her hand while she cries that she's losing my fiance, her best friend. I restate my stance again that I stand with my kid, I want to be friends but she's invalidating my daughter's experience. Long time friend says, "so I'm just wrong" and there's no room for anyone else's opinion and that she feels like we don't want her to ever make new friends. She ends our friendship. My daughter is devastated that her idol is gone from our lives. She thinks she caused this argument and I have not been able to convince her that her experience that evening is very important and that none of this is her fault. Did we do the right thing by standing firm that this young guy is not someone we want in our friend group or around my daughter? Should we have given him a chance to meet us sober? How do I show my daughter that this was not her fault? Edit: Wow this really blew up! Thank you all for your wonderful advice and confirmation that we did right by my daughter. I appreciate all the awards, too. I didn't expect this reaction! For everyone saying to report him, I have figured out that he was a middle school teacher or perhaps a teacher's aide in his home state and is currently getting his master's in education nearby which is why he's in our state. He isn't currently working as far as I can tell so I don't have anywhere to report him to, but I have plenty of information now. His home state has their criminal records searchable for a fee you pay regardless of whether your search turns anything up. In my state, he only has some traffic violations (but they're serious, like hit & run type stuff). He is not a sex offender and in fact a Google search reveals him to have a very wholesome background which might be how he's been able to fly under the radar. I'm relieved I didn't get more haters about drinking in front of my kid. We don't really drink and I think it's important for her to see how people draw the line. It wasn't a party, it was just my 3 and one friend watching a movie and talking. Those who don't get why friend had my daughter's number, this friend was deeply involved in our lives to the point that friend referred to my daughter as her adoptive or honorary daughter and my daughter viewed her as more of an aunt. This worked for us for a long time. She had never abused this power before this incident. For the people who asked how can I even ask this, I'm not actually questioning whether we should meet him again sober but gathering opinions on why that's a ridiculous request. I had not even thought about the grooming aspect so many of you brought up! Everyone who shared their stories and experiences in the comments, I wish I could hug you all (if you are comfortable with it!) I wish you had people who stood up for you, supported you, and defended you. You are brave to share and I read every comment with tears streaming. My daughter is dealing with it. We are considering counseling as an option, thanks everyone who suggested it. Even if just short term I like her to know it's there if she should want it. Fiance is getting a big head over all of his support lol. Thanks again, everyone! ❤
My parents keep breaking my ps4s that I pay for a continue to theathen to break every new one
Okay, so I've been trying to find the right place to talk about this since I don't really got anywhere else to talk about it (there's a another place this belongs please let me know). I'm going to start on the first ps4. For a while now, my parents are pretty big fans of breaking or "disciplining" us if we misbehaved. But as time went on, their discipline did not affect me because I was used to it. Since I would show no reaction like they wanted so, they would result into taking or breaking my belongings. They would always use the same saying, "There isn't democracy in this household, its dictatorship, and you do what we tell you when we tell you." So many times, I've wanted to say, "Every single country that tried dictatorship has failed." But I'm just trying to get the whole situation over with and not be called a dumbass by my dad lol. I can't remember the reason why the first ps4 was broken, but I can remember the last 2, and I will say how and why they did it. The 2nd ps4 I bought was a new one just like the last one with a whole terabyte. It lasted (for a while); fast forward a couple months later, my brother and I get in an argument COMPLETELY not regardless of the ps4. My mom gets mad and says, "Since you guys want to always argue, I'm throwing this ps4 away." We were obviously still mad at each other, but then I noticed what she said and went on to ask why is she throwing out the PS4 I paid for? And she went on to say, "this is my house, and you will do what I say, and this ps4 is a demon." So legitimately continues to throw my ps4 about 5 feet off the ground onto the grass. I was just in disbelief that she just broke my ps4 over something that had nothing to do with it. Onto the next PS4, I obviously lost trust in my family, so I bought a used ps4 with 500gb for $180 (I'm pretty sure I was robbed Lol). The first thing she says when I get the PS4 inside the house, she says, "I can break this one just like the others." I was annoyed, and I just responded, "ill just break your TV" then, and she laughed it off. Obviously, I wasn't going to break the TV because I don't like getting my ass beat by my dad lol. Fast forward a couple months, and I get in an argument with her because I said, "I'll do it right after this match." And for some reason, she decided to unplug my ps4, grab a bat, and in front of the NEIGHBORS breaks my ps4; she believes I'm emotionally attached to the ps4 and its a demon which I am not attached to it at all.. just annoyed my money has been wasted again. "All I said was if you're going to make me watch, at least do it inside without the neighbors watching" after it all. She again discusses how "You do what I say when I say, you should be thankful for all this" and whatnot. At this point, my payback was simple, just stop communicating. I started becoming a lot quieter and not telling them about what I'm thinking and stuff like that, just overall being the quiet kid. I rebought another PS4 cheap, and I kid you not. I got the "I'll break that one also" bs, luckily I still have this ps4, and I've been not using it at all with her inside the house, clearly showing that I don't trust her at all. She realized this and said, "Why aren't you playing?" And I happily responded, "because you might break it." I didn't look at her face because I was on my phone, but all I heard was her leave my room, which actually felt great to finally let them know I don't trust them at all with my belongings. If my new ps4 is broken ill make sure to update this forum, but as for now...I'm grounded from using my ps4, which is new. They grounded me because i was watching TV during class. After having this post up and replying to many comments I've finally come to my senses...and im truly sad about how i really feel and ive been hiding my feelings to myself, thank you everyone for helping me realize what's wrong with this. A good amount of people have said "You are addicted" and somewhere around those lines but i will explain why i get so many ps4s. I play the game to be happy and make money, its a source of income for me..not only that, I talk to people on a personal level that do help me with my issue's, gaming isn't always "i better win" the community on PS4 has helped me alot, there was a point where I was suicidal and a middle aged man said "I bet you have it tough, but at the end of all that hardship is a reward that you've earned" I will never forget what he said, and to this day i talk to him about my issues. I want to make it clear that the main reason for buying a PS4 is not to play games, but to talk to someone, talking to people over a hotline isn't the same as talking to a guy in his 20s or 30s telling you how he overcame his problems. The gaming community is the reason im breathing and I can without a doubt say posting this story on reddit helped me so much on realizing my mistakes and what I should do. While I was reading all of the replies and comments I've came to a point of tearing up because I blocked out everything thats wrong with my family. I couldn't thank everyone enough. Expect for the one guy that said "Stop bitching and grow up" you sir, are the human embodiment of used toilet paper. I've decided to start saving up my money to leave this toxic house hold. I'm going to try to buy an apartment or find myself a roommate. I dont really want the police involved in my problems as well, mainly because my parents aren't from here so if they get deported it'll cause issues to my siblings aswell. As soon as im 18, I will take alot of other peoples advice and make a separate bank account and block their number for around a year, basically separating myself from their life in general. I had a very long talk with my cousin about my parents and he said exactly "Listen man this is something even my mom has noticed, she was a bit sad you've become numb to the things your mom and dad say to you." He then went on to tell me how my parents treated others, basically being jerks. Again thank you everyone for all the advice and such kind things you've said, it really means alot. I hope I can give you guys a better update in the future. Meanwhile I'm probably going to post stories about my parents around reddit alot. Edit: I'll post an update but it'll take time, its hard to type all of the events on a phone
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:
Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3;
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement. In my week 1 post, I did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. I'm grateful to u/hyperkinesis247 for inquiring if there's an edge regarding sweethearts. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.
Previous Results
The plays last week were:
Off-the-board spread
6 pt
10 pt
Chicago +3
Win
Denver +1½
Win
Win
Detroit +3
Win
San Francisco -8
Loss
Tampa Bay -7½
Win
I've been using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. For example, Carolina and Las Vegas both closed at +3 with many books and both covered. But they're not included in the list above because Bovada closed them at +3½. (You can verify the lines at sbrodds.com.) I'm a Blackjack player. I didn't know the first thing about sports or sports betting when I started this tracking. In hindsight, I've learned that Bovada was a terrible choice. Nonetheless, Bovada was the choice and switching now seems statistically unethical. Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
Teaser
Year
Team
Record
6 pt
2017
+1½ thru +3
61-23
72.6%
6 pt
2018
+1½ thru +3
63-19
76.8%
6 pt
2019
+1½ thru +3
52-16
76.5%
6 pt
2020
+1½ thru +3
16-2
88.9%
6 pt
2017
-7½ thru -9
27-10
73.0%
6 pt
2018
-7½ thru -9
16-9
64.0%
6 pt
2019
-7½ thru -9
17-7
70.8%
6 pt
2020
-7½ thru -9
7-2
77.9%
10 pt
2017
+1½ thru +2½
22-1
95.7%
10 pt
2018
+1½ thru +2½
24-5
82.8%
10 pt
2019
+1½ thru +2½
23-4
85.2%
10 pt
2020
+1½ thru +2½
5-0
100.0%
The chart above counts pushes as losses. You should strongly consider betting at a book that has a "pushes reduce" rule instead. The reason why my results only count the last three years (2017-2019) is because that's all the time I've had to look at so far. There's no real reason why I'm actively avoiding 2016. I'll be making an effort to look at the 2016 data soon.
Advice
Once upon a time, Wong's strategy was reliable. Bookmakers used to routinely pay -110 for teasers and games tended to be lower-scoring in the past. But in 2020, the payouts are stingier and NFL offenses are stronger. It would be irresponsible to automatically assume Wong teasers are still a winning strategy today. This post is not a suggestion to bet. Merely, this is an experiment to see if this strategy is still favorable in today's environment. Before last week, I expressed concern over the fact that our selections were 16-5-1 against the un-teased spread. This is good news if you had bet real money on these games in the past. However, it was a red flag in terms of sustainability moving forward. We have no reason to believe that our win percentage against the un-teased spread should be higher or lower than 50%. Last week's results helped alleviate those concerns a little bit. The picks were 1-4 against the un-teased spread but still 4-1 in our teasers. It's a step in the right direction, but one week isn't enough of a sample size for me to consider flipping my advice.
This Week
As of the time of this post, the Bears number in today's game is all over the place depending on which book you look at. For my opinion on how I think this situation should be handled, see the Line Shopping section of my post last week. For the purposes of tracking the results, I remain steadfast in using Bovada's closing line. As of now, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week is:
Buffalo +1½
Arizona -7½
Los Angeles Rams -7½
New Orleans -8
My recommendation is to use the closing line whenever possible, but this is especially true for Buffalo. Changing the time of game doesn't usually cause any problems with your bets, but changing the day of game could create headaches. Without getting into the exact details of all of the possible scenarios, let me just succinctly say that betting the Bills game before you know the exact day of game could create controversy. For the purposes of tracking, Bovada's final line according to sbrodds.com will be used except in cases where that number is obviously and egregiously wrong.
Teasing Totals
There's two ways that a teaser bet can win:
Method X: you can beat the regular un-teased number, or
Method Y: the game lands among the range of 6 points you gained via line movement ("teaser window").
We've talked about needing a 73.9% hit rate on our teaser legs. This means that if your probability of X is around 50%, then your probability of Y needs to be about 24%. This means that 24% of the results need to fit inside your teaser window. You can't use teasers as a security blanket. You can't use them defensively. A lot of people treat teasers in the sense that, "I like this pick but let me just give myself a few extra points of wiggle room in case things go wrong." With this logic, it's very hard to get your Y probability up to 24%. You need to intentionally seek out games that will land in the teaser window. You need to make a deliberate effort to win some games via Method Y. Here is a histogram of all of the final margins in 2017-2019. You can clearly identify the peaks at 3 and 7. (And the numbers in between 3 and 7 are all not-too-shabby either.) If you're intentionally trying to win via Method Y, you'd do well to put 3 and 7 in your teaser window. Now look at this histogram of all of the final totals in 2017-2019. Where's the peak? What's the "sweet spot" that you want in your teaser window? How are you going to aggressively attack that option? People have been claiming that they've been successfully teasing totals with their method. Something like "tease the Over when both teams have an 0-2 record" or other equivalent bullshit. I encourage those people to provide real statistics instead of anecdotes. How often are you winning via Method X and how often are you winning via Method Y? First of all, I'm not convinced it's a winning strategy. But even if it was, I can guarantee the long-run results are because X is really large and Y is still rather small. If your X is really large, just bet it straight. On a normal parlay, two different selections each at -283 parlayed together pays you -120 for the whole ticket. Let's understand that's what a teaser is: it's a parlay with each leg at a -283 price. So if you're going from the straight -110 price (un-teased number) to the new -283 price (teased number), you better make sure that the 6 points you're getting are damn well worth it. Those interested in teasing totals should look at your book's alternate lines to see what the true cost of 6 points is. (Hint: it's not even close to -283.) I never said don't play totals. I never said don't play alternate totals. But teasing them is unequivocally wrong.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 30th, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance. Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
What are the best teasers to play? Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is:
Take the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3;
Take the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
The strategy listed above is very similar to the strategy written by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong in his book Sharp Sports Betting. There's debate in Wong teasers over whether we should play games at exactly +3, whether we should care about the home team, and whether we should care about the total. My opinions on those three debates are yes to +3, no to home/road splits, and maybe to totals. Read my post in Week 1 for the full mathematical details. What are the best sweetheart teasers? 10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Our methodology on 10-point teasers is:
For 10-point teasers, take the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.
Will following this strategy definitely mean I make money? Once upon a time, this strategy used to be quite reliable. In 2020, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable. Personally, I'm not ready to commit real money to this strategy yet. Rather, I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits. What were the results in Week 2 this year? I'm using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. (You can use sbrodds.com to verify I'm being honest about what the closing numbers were.) These were the games and results in Week 2 this year:
Off-the-board
6 pt
10 pt
Atlanta +3
Win
Los Angeles Rams +1½
Win
Win
Minnesota +3
Loss
Baltimore -7½
Win
San Francisco -7½
Win
Tampa Bay -7½
Win
What percentage of teaser legs have hit in the past? Assuming that a 2-team, 6-point teaser pays out at -120, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to have positive EV. For 3-team sweethearts paying out at -130, the threshold is 82.7%.
Teaser
Year
Team
Record
6 pt
2017
+1½ thru +3
61-23
72.6%
6 pt
2018
+1½ thru +3
63-19
76.8%
6 pt
2019
+1½ thru +3
52-16
76.4%
6 pt
2020
+1½ thru +3
7-1
87.5%
6 pt
2017
-7½ thru -9
27-10
73.0%
6 pt
2018
-7½ thru -9
16-9
64.0%
6 pt
2019
-7½ thru -9
17-7
70.8%
6 pt
2020
-7½ thru -9
6-1
85.7%
10 pt
2017
+1½ thru +2½
22-1
95.7%
10 pt
2018
+1½ thru +2½
24-5
82.8%
10 pt
2019
+1½ thru +2½
23-4
85.2%
10 pt
2020
+1½ thru +2½
3-0
100.0%
What are the Week 3 plays being tracked? As of the time of this post, these would be the Wong plays for this week.
Green Bay +3
Los Angeles Rams +2
Miami +3 (Thursday)
Minnesota +3
I emphasize that the list above is unofficial. If the line moves between the time of this post and kickoff of the game, you might see some games fall off of this list or some games be added to this list. The determining factors are what sbrodds.com says Bovada's closing line is and the methodology laid out at the top of this post. If Bovada's spread happens to be a point or so off of the consensus or if they engage in line shading, then so be it. However I reserve the right to reject Bovada's number in situations where it's obviously wrong, such as a typo causing -8 to turn into -80. In all of my data so far, I've yet to invoke this right. If I ever do in the future, I promise to disclose that information anytime I post tracking results. Why play the closing lines? The strategy is to bet into the "most accurate line" possible and the assumption is that later lines are more accurate. The word "accurate" here is meant to describe a situation where the probability of the actual result landing on either side of the line is close to 50/50. To win a teaser bet, we can either beat the regular spread or win the leg because the actual final score (margin) landed on a number that we gained through teaser movement.
Teaser leg win%
=
Beat regular spread
or
Margin lands on line movement
???
=
probability X
+
probability Y
There's two variables in the probability equation above, so let's talk about both of them. First is your ability to beat the normal spread, written as probability X. You have two options for X:
Door #1: bet into an accurate line, in which case X is 50%.
Door #2: bet into an inaccurate line, in which case X is either below 50% or above 50%.
The act of choosing door #2 is to "handicap" the game yourself; you find inaccurate lines by taking advantage of virgin numbers or by forming your own opinion on the game based on what you know about the teams. Door #1 is to ignore all information. In a straight bet ATS, probability X is the only way to win the bet. (That is to say, Y=0 in a non-teaser.) Because the payout is usually around -110, door #1 is guaranteed to be a losing strategy in straight ATS bets. Nobody can beat the spread consistently by blinding throwing darts at the board. That's why you're encouraged to pick door #2 in straight bets ATS. If you're already good at picking door #2, then more power to you; keep making your money by beating the regular spread on normal non-teaser bets. The reason why you're encouraged to pick door #1 in Wong teasers is because you're taking advantage of the teaser line movement. In the equation from above, X=50% is sufficient if we can make probability Y large enough. Y depends on your ability to tease through key numbers. Sure, X greater than 50% is nice to have. But if the situation says X=50% is enough, what's the incentive in risking door #2? How can I play tonight's game if I'm supposed to wait for closing numbers on Sunday's games? This post is merely counting what percentage of Wong legs hit. It's meant to determine your expected value on Wong teasers, not necessarily your actual value. Whether or not tonight's Miami +9 hits is relevant in determining the long-term validity of future Wong teasers as a whole. Whether or not you're able to get action down on tonight's Miami +9 isn't within the scope of this post. That having been said, some books will allow you to play open-ended teasers where you can fill in the first leg now and the second leg later. But also keep in mind that my official advice regarding Wong teasers is to not play them until further research is conducted. How often are you going to post? Once a week. Usually Saturday evening, but I will adjust the timeline forward in situations where the Thursday game is potentially a tracked play.
Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3;
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
The strategy listed above is very similar to a strategy introduced by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong. There's debate in Wong teasers over whether we should play games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether we should care about the total. I did a deep dive into the mathematical details of those debates in my week 1 post.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. I'm grateful to u/hyperkinesis247 for inquiring if there's an edge regarding sweethearts. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.
Previous Results
I'm using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. (You can use sbrodds.com to verify I'm being honest.) The plays last week were:
Off-the-board spread
6 pt
10 pt
Chicago +3
Win
Green Bay +3
Win
Kansas City +3
Win
Los Angeles Rams +2
Win
Win
Miami +3
Win
Minnesota +3
Win
New York Giants +3
Loss
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
Teaser
Year
Team
Record
6 pt
2017
+1½ thru +3
61-23
72.6%
6 pt
2018
+1½ thru +3
63-19
76.8%
6 pt
2019
+1½ thru +3
52-16
76.5%
6 pt
2020
+1½ thru +3
13-2
86.7%
6 pt
2017
-7½ thru -9
27-10
73.0%
6 pt
2018
-7½ thru -9
16-9
64.0%
6 pt
2019
-7½ thru -9
17-7
70.8%
6 pt
2020
-7½ thru -9
6-1
85.7%
10 pt
2017
+1½ thru +2½
22-1
95.7%
10 pt
2018
+1½ thru +2½
24-5
82.8%
10 pt
2019
+1½ thru +2½
23-4
85.2%
10 pt
2020
+1½ thru +2½
4-0
100.0%
The chart above counts pushes as losses. You should strongly consider betting at a book that has a "pushes reduce" rule instead. The reason why my results only count the last three years (2017-2019) is because that's all the time I've had to look at so far. There's no real reason why I'm actively avoiding 2016. I'll be making an effort to look at the 2016 data soon.
Beating the Spread
The thought process behind this methodology is that we assume we will win half of our games against the regular un-teased spread. Then the hope is that we are able to "steal" another 23.9% (or more) via line movement. That'll get us to the required 73.9% win percentage. Last week's Rams were a perfect example of this. We believed that the Rams would cover the +2 spread about half of the time. (If you didn't believe this, you should've just bet that game against the regular un-teased spread.) But the reason we chose this game as a teaser candidate is because we realized that +2 would go through 3 and 7 when teased. We gain the most bang-for-the-buck if our teaser movement goes through 3 and 7. As it turned out, the Rams indeed lost by exactly 3. There's no mathematical reason to believe that we should win against the un-teased spread more than half of the time (nor less than half, for that matter). The data in the three years prior (2017-2019) to this year show that all games fitting our methodology were a modest 155-147-18 against the un-teased spread. That comes out to 51.3% which is not a statistically significant departure from the half that we expect. More importantly, 51.3% is not good enough to beat the usual -110 vigorish. In 22 games so far this year, the selections fitting the methodology were 16-5-1 against the un-teased spread! This pace is not sustainable. This bit of positive variance is also largely responsible for the astonishingly good 19-3 record in teaser legs. I expect a "regression to the mean" soon and strongly caution people against getting too giddy over three weeks of success. My official advice on Wong teasers remains the same as it has been in previous weeks: inconclusive, until we gather more research.
Line Shopping
However, I know that a lot of people are choosing to ignore my above advice and bet real money anyway. If you do, let me take a moment to talk about line shopping. At the very top of this post where my methodology says to "tease (this team) when the line is (this number)", that's shorthand for "when that team deserves to be at this spread". The reason why the suggestion is to use closing numbers is because it's thought that the closing number most accurately reflects the number of points that team deserves to be getting. In terms of discussing when different books have slightly different point spreads: suppose that every book in the world has the Bears at +2½ but your book is listing the Bears at +3½ for no apparent reason. If you were intending to tease the Bears at +2½ all along, then of course you should tease them at +3½. Don't be this meme. If your book is giving you a free point, take it. That's a different story than if every book agrees that Bears should be at +3½. In that case, that's probably what they deserve and an indication that maybe the quality of talent is not enough to justify the bet. An analogy is that if I have a rule that says I'll only eat steak if it costs between $15-$50. The logic is that less than $15 would mean that the quality of the meat is unsatisfactory and more than $50 means that I can't afford it. If a restaurant is offering to sell me a steak at a price of $10, but everyone else in the world thinks that $20 is the fair price for this steak, then I should purchase this steak at the incorrect price. Even though the actual price was outside my rule of $15-$50, the quality of the steak would be satisfactory enough. On the other hand, if the restaurant is offering to sell me a steak at a price of $10, and everyone else in the world agrees that $10 is the fair price, then it means that the quality isn't to my liking.
This Week
I'm only going to post once per week. Normally, I try to make that post on Saturday evening but I'm forced to move up my timeline when the Thursday game is relevant. As of the time of this post, the Thursday game in Week 4 is not a tracked play but it's close. I'm making this post now to explicitly say that it might become a tracked play, so be aware. In addition to tonight's game, the tentative list of tracked plays are:
Chicago +3
Jacksonville +3
Las Vegas +3
Tennessee +1½
Green Bay -7½
I emphasize that the list above is unofficial. Lines may move between the time of this post and kickoff, especially Tennessee! The determining factors are what sbrodds.com says Bovada's line is at time of kickoff and the methodology laid out at the top of this post. If Bovada's spread happens to be a point or so off of the consensus or if they engage in line shading, then so be it. However I reserve the right to reject Bovada's number in situations where it's obviously wrong, such as a typo causing -8 to turn into -80. In all of my data so far, I've yet to invoke this right. If I ever do in the future, I promise to disclose that information anytime I post tracking results.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance. With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary convention bounce.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - 538's runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
Here are picks against the spread for every game in Week 5 of the 2020 season, as well as the latest betting odds. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark . Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 ... The term "ATS" is an acronym for against the spread.ATS is one of the most commonly used non-words in sports betting. If you are betting ATS then you are making a bet involving a pointspread - as ... We’ve helped thousands of clients surpass their financial betting objectives and goals due to the quality of our information. Now almost 3 decades later, ATS Consultants spends nearly $3,000,000 yearly in overhead and employs over 200 men and women both inside our state-of-the-art facilities in Baltimore, Maryland and around the world. Raymond Report Sports Betting Podcast with Ross Benjamin (10-09-20) NFL Betting Show MLB New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction GAME #5 ALDS Free MLB Picks (10-09-20) About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 175 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.
Video explaining how the Point Spread and Money Line work in sports betting. Go to: 00:16 The Spread 00:40 Money Line. Spread betting is betting so all gains are tax free. The next thing is flexibility; you can trade thousands of markets from one trading account and you can speculate on whether a market will go up ... As I create basic sports betting informational videos I will add them to this playlist. ... How Betting Odds Work - Sports Betting Odds Explained ... Play now; What is "ATS" in Sports Betting by ... What is Against the Spread and Spread Betting. - Duration: 6:24. Odds Coach 53,224 views. ... 5 Beginner Bass Lines - Guaranteed To Impress [With Tabs On Screen] - Duration: 13:31. NHL Handicapping Tips and Strategies to Make Money Betting Hockey - Duration: 9:56. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 4,233 views
