So last year, I’ve taken a look at the Pythagorian Expectation for each team. Which was a fun way to figure out how each team performed according to it’s potential. The formula itself factors in Points Scored, Points Allowed and Wins in a simple and beautiful way. If you want to read more about it, you can do so here.
The conclusions last year were that Oakland was the luckiest team, winning 3 more games than they should have, and Jacksonville their karmic counterpart. Of course it’s hard to make any kind of prediction about the future from these numbers. So naturally, we did. The most underperforming teams (close to .500) are likely to rebound a bit the next year, barring any major shifts like a new QB a new HC or a total crisis in the locker room. The most overperforming team, will drop back to the pack.
And it looks like for a number of teams, that’s actually what happened. The Cardinals went to 8-8 this year, the Jaguars won 7 more games. Of course only part of that is the regression to the mean, the other part is the excellent draft class and free agency. The Raiders and to an extent the Giants did drop off a bit, their luck having run out in 2017.
But that’s looking back at last year’s formula. The 2017 season is in the books. Who were the starcrossed teams of last season, and which had snuck clovers under their emblems?After inputting the Points Scored, Points Allowed and the Wins, this is the result for the 2017 season:
Google Table.
And we have a returning character: The Browns. Which stands to reason, because it’s highly unlikely a team would score so little and get scored on so much that it statistically shouldn’t have won a single game. In fact, statistically, they should have won 3.3. Which is a -slightly- bigger difference than the Jacksonville Jaguars of last year boasted.
Next on the list are Jaguars, Buccaneers and Texans. The surprising one here, is the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have won 10 games last year, but according to the formula, they “should” have won 12. Mostly because of their very low Points Allowed. Only the Vikings allowed fewer. Again, two returning teams. That’s three out of the top four.
In the red are the teams who overperformed. Or won more than they theoretically should have, considering their amounts of points scored and allowed. And there we find the Bills, the Steelers, the Panthers and the Cardinals. All within half a win from each other, from 2 to 2.5 wins too many.
I’m a Cardinal fan, and this rings very familiar. Last year, they stole a couple of games and the offense just didn’t warrant us going 8-8. The statline of the Bills is hardly predictive, since they have a new QB coming in and seem to finally have found some unity at the front office. But the Steelers’ one is pretty surprising. Their Pythagorean Expectation is a lot lower than their result. Moreover, they ‘should’ have tied with the Ravens according to the formula.
Lastly, there’s the stat of the Pythagorean Expectation itself, not the difference between it and the actual result. As mentioned in the post last year, 11 out of 16 Super Bowls from 1988 to 2004 have been won by the teams with the highest Pythagorean Expectation.
And this year, the three teams with the highest PE have been the Patriots and the Eagles, with the Jaguars in the same class as them. Pretty accurate once again. In the group just bellow them, we find the Vikings, Rams, Saints, Steelers, and quite surprisingly the aformentioned Ravens. It seems they were a lot closer to a playoff spot than they might have seemed.
As I've said, it’s hard to use this formula as a predictive tool. But for teams above or around .500, and with a situation that hasn’t changed too much, it can be indicative. Next year, however, might be one of the least predictable seaons ever. New coaches, players coming back from injuries and one of the most loaded quarterback draft classes will make it very difficult to predict anything.
However, judging from this sheet, it seems safe to say that the Jacksonville Jaguars are here to stay, at least for next year. And the Chargers are due for a run. On the flip side, it also seems safe to bet on the Steelers not doing better than last year.
Only 95 more days until we can start finding out!
(This post is also a blogpost I made here. Feel free to check it out, it's easier to follow with the table embedded)

Attempt to Prove the MLB Run Line Betting System Theory

Link for reference
Hypothesis #1: One can maintain a profitable betting system by betting the -1.5 Run Line for the Favorite and the -1.5 Adjusted Run Line for the Underdog in any given game.
Hypothesis #2: If not all games are profitable given the above system, then one should be able to at least identify those games which are more likely to turn a profit, and maintain a profitable betting system by only betting on games which fit that criteria.
Summary
Betting a combination of the -1.5 Run Lines for the Favorites and Underdogs is not profitable in the long term for any MLB games.
Approach
Normally, in order to prove or disprove a betting system theory like this, one has to gather, process, and analyze years worth of data – odds and results for thousands of games. This can be a difficult endeavor for several reasons.
Luckily, in the case of Major League Baseball, there is a much more convenient option.
Ever notice that sometimes the most dangerous offense in the league can be going up against a 4.55 ERA journeyman and get shut out? And every once in a while Clayton Kershaw will get knocked around for 5 innings before leaving early with 6 earned runs? We all know that scoring in baseball, possibly more than any other sport, is subject to a huge number of variables…and random luck.
It has been shown by baseball sabermetricians that the distribution of runs scored in baseball can be very closely approximated by a Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD), which is a well-known mathematical function used to model special types of discrete distributions. NBD has to be modified a bit to comply with baseball, but once the proper adjustments are made, it’s nearly a perfect fit. Prior to encountering this MLB Run Line Betting System Theory, I had built a model that incorporated this concept, and I’ve retrofitted that logic for our purposes here.
The following graph is an example of the Probability Mass Function (PMF) as defined by NBD for a Home Team having an average expectation of 10 runs scored vs. an Away Team having an average expectation of 2.5 runs scored.
IMAGE #1
Number of runs scored is along the X axis, and % Probability of the team scoring that many runs is along the Y axis. If these 2 teams were to play each other – let’s say – 10,000 times under the exact same conditions (same lineup, starting pitcher, days rest, home ball park, etc.), the Home Team’s longer curve shows that they would be expected to score a higher number of runs more often than the Away Team. Meanwhile, the Away Team’s curve has a higher peak, but a shorter distance, meaning that they’ll be expected to score a smaller number of runs most of the time. On any given day, the Away Team might outscore the Home Team, but over the long term, all of the individual scores will add up to the curve you see here, and the Home Team will score a higher number of runs more often than not.
Ten runs to 2.5 runs is obviously an extreme example to illustrate the differences between high- and low-scoring teams. Let’s take a look at a more realistic example – Home Team with an average expectation of 5 runs vs. Away Team with an average expectation of 4 runs.
IMAGE #2
Okay, what the hell does this have to do with proving or disproving this theory? Well, using the same Probability Mass Function used to generate these sample graphs, I can model the probable scoring outcome of any given game. All I need is the expected runs scored for Team A and Team B.
Now you might be thinking, well that’s perfect because most books provide the Team Total O/U numbers per team. Yes, but unfortunately, I don’t believe those are very usable for this purpose. There seems to be a few layers of rounding and line shading going on, so the Team Totals aren’t very reliable. Here is what I did instead:

1. Use Team A and Team B’s Moneyline odds to calculate the implied win probability for each team.
   IMPORTANT: Don’t forget to calculate and remove the vigorish across both Moneyline odds. Otherwise, your probabilities will be artificially under-inflated.
   Example: ML odds of -190 and +178 translates into Expected Win Probabilities of 64.6% and 35.4%, respectively.
   
2. Using these Win Probabilities, perform a backwards application of the Pythagorean Win Expectation Formula to reverse engineer the respective Expected Run Totals for each team.
   In our example, these Expected Run Totals turn out to be 4.38 and 3.12.
   
3. Repeat #1 and 2 for every game being analyzed.
   

Now that I have a list of Expected Run Totals for each team in every game, I can calculate the probability of:
• Team A -1.5 Run Line Wins
• Team B -1.5 Run Line Wins
• Neither Team A nor Team B -1.5 Run Lines Win (both lose)
And by Performing a sum-product of the Probabilities X Potential Profit for each of these three scenarios, one can calculate the Expected Value (EV) of this system for every game.
Conclusions
I followed this approach for every game available on BetOnline and Heritage yesterday and today, and here is what I found:
• Every single game is -EV using this theory. There were no exceptions. This means that, while you might win occasionally due to variance and random luck, you should expect to lose money over the long run.
• The average EV across all games was -0.20 units.
• The best EV for a single game was -0.06 units. While close to break even, this is still a long-term loser.
• Heritage had one game that was a strange outlier (-0.99 units). If that outlier is removed, the average EV across all games increased to -0.15 units.
• Heritage performed slightly better than BetOnline (-0.13 vs. -0.17), which I suppose should be expected due to it having lower % juice across all bets.
Further Research
If the results were even slightly promising, I would invest more time performing this analysis across many more dates, games, and sportsbooks. Admittedly, just 2 days of games across 2 sportsbooks is a very small sample size. Furthermore, I would move on to testing a massive amount of real-life historical game data - odds and scores. However, the results seem to be confirming what we should already know – that sportsbook odds are designed to be -EV by their very nature, and it is impossible to create a +EV scenario simply by adding two -EV wagers together.
If anyone wants me to analyze some games that they believe might be good candidates to break this rule, I can reproduce the calculations easily in Excel. Just send me a list of games, with each row having the following columns:
• Sportsbook
• Game Date
• Team A Name
• Team B Name
• Game Total (from sportsbook)
• Team A Moneyline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team B Moneyline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team A -1.5 Runline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team B -1.5 Runline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2016-06-21
Link to submission (Has self-text)

Questions	Answers
Why do so many children (and adults) hate advanced math? Is it how it's taught, or what is taught?	It's a deep question, and I'd like to warn that the answer is somewhat disturbing in its implications. Yes, some of it is WHAT is taught - the number crunching without patterns, the primitive yet tedious topics instead of beautiful adventures of the mind, medieval content not linked to current trends. The "what" part is relatively easy to address: there are wonderful materials out there! Innovative books, cool computer simulations, hands-on construction sets, etc.
	And a part of the problem HOW math is taught: we do need to mind what we know about human learning, such as spaced repetition for memory, the power of multiple examples that come from your peer group, the motivation of making mathematics your own.
	Yet the most difficult part that tends to stay off-screen is WHY math is taught. Advanced math is taught as a gatekeeper, as a means not to starve. It trickles all the way down - I hear parents of children as young as five or six say that if they don't push math now, the child will fail forever. To quote a presentation: "Why do we need to know multiplication? One reason is that multiplication is on many tests kids take. The story goes like this: if kids don’t know multiplication facts, they will fail tests, which means they won’t get into college, which means no career, which means epic fail of the whole life. For want of a nail, the kingdom is lost."
	So people hate math because they learn it out of fear. How can we help kids learn math for meaningful, joyful, loving reasons? That's what it's all about...
So fast forward a couple of years, and I discover (to my horror) that I had a problem that required the real-world application of calculus. So I dragged out my old textbooks to review.	At Natural Math, we have "math sparks" for each topic we introduce to children - you can check out a couple of calculus sparks on this page, and see how they start with whys: Link to naturalmath.com
What books would you recommend to someone who sucks at math ?	It's a very broad question, because no person can suck at ALL math - there's too much of it! I am yet to see anyone who hates math art, programming, hands-on modeling, problem-solving, social justice statistics, the sixty-three major math subject areas - all at the same time.
	So, what do you like, what are your hopes and dreams? What books do you like? Or maybe it's not a book, but a game or a movie? Let me know. Meanwhile, here's a site I respect for book reviews: Link to livingmath.net
Ok, I get how a 5 year old could probably understand limits but please explain to me how the average 5 year old can understand differentiation and integration?	First of all, let's be clear that a 5yo can understand the concept and idea of limits or integrals, but probably not computations of them from something like AP Calculus test. It's such a FUN task to ask yourself - how can I help a little kid to play with derivatives? And to figure it out! A lot of it is in storytelling and hands-on play.
	Zeno's paradoxes or Hotel Infinity stories are perennial favorites for finite and infinite limits: Link to en.wikipedia.org
	Here are our hands-on activities for integrals and derivatives, from the Inspired by Calculus course. They have particular examples.
	Integration as 3D printing, layers on an onion, LEGO building - "What Would 3D Printer Do?": Link to drive.google.com
	Integration as mosaic, beads, pixel art: Link to drive.google.com
	Integrals and derivatives in "X-ray vision" metaphor - making flipbooks! Link to drive.google.com
	I hope these examples help to get started. There are more, like this interactive toy for beautiful rotations - kids love it: Link to www.zefrank.com
What do you think would be the best components and concepts of an interactive math learning game targeting both children and adults?	This is a large question. I am so tempted to just spend the next hour on this :-) Any concept in math is someone's baby - some people worked it out with love and care. So, any math topic or problem - Euler's formula, geometric series, knights and knaves puzzle - can be INTERESTING. However, some are more POPULAR than others, and some are more CENTRAL to other topics.
	If you pick a popular topic, it will be more memetic and easier to share with others. For example, fractals. Everybody loves fractals, it seems. They are in the main song in a Disney movie (Frozen). They go around a lot on social media. So if you make a game about fractals, people will probably relate to it - both children and adults.
	You can also study what hang-ups people have in math, and target those. If you make a game that teaches people the deep calculus issues related to .999...=1, I bet both children and adults will be thankful! We worked out a hands-on model for this one, where children cut squares or triangles (into smaller and smaller pieces) and then reassemble them back into the whole thing.
Can any of your research and methods be used to help adult learners gain confidence and skill in calculus or is it something that would work only for young children? Thank you!	Secretly, all Natural Math methods are for adults too. (Well, it's not really a secret, just something my colleagues like to joke about.) People feel that if a method is gentle, playful, accessible enough for five-year-olds, they might give it a try! Children are like pied pipers, leading their grown-ups to give math another chance.
	Some people even "borrow" children for the purpose: a niece, a friend's child, or a group at a math circle.
	What grown-ups say: "I've never thought of it that way - never linked integration and topo maps, but now that we made them out of foam, it's so obvious!" "I come to the math circle for my child, but it's so fun and therapeutic for me. I play for my own sake."
	If activities are deep, easy, and playful, grown-ups find them valuable too. Math anxious people find it therapeutic, and professionals in math-rich fields find new inspirations.
How do you feel about teaching young children proofs? I sometimes feel that my early math education would have been easier if I had seen proof of the methods/equations we were using, but I'm not sure if that's just some kind of bias since I now have a degree in a subfield of applied math.	I am all for helping children see WHYS. Why does the quadratic formula give us solutions? Why have people bothered to invent limits? Why does the Pythagorean Theorem always work? I love to work out child-friendly whys behind more advanced topics, like complex numbers (carousel around the axes) or integration (assembling blocks in Minecraft).
	And also, logic and rhetoric and paradoxes (topics related to proofs) are both accessible and fun for young children. We have a book out called Camp Logic, and people report good results with it: Link to naturalmath.com
	You are right about bias, though. Some people, including children, are much more interested in building, modeling, or artistry in mathematics - the HOW of it rather than the why. So, the proofs and whys should be there, and accessible, but as one venue of exploration among many children can choose.
Do the majority of parents that seek out your expertise do it in order to be a partner in their children's education, or are they more of the "tiger mom" type of parent that pushes their children to be exceptional?	Natural Math focuses on adventure, open problems, and explorations; such activities don't give direct immediate advantage in very competitive situations. The type of parent parodied in the "Tiger Mom" novel (and it was satire, by the way!) seeks ways for their child to win (over others). I don't see that pattern of behavior in our community - it's very collaborative. Parents and teachers doing Natural Math tend to be awesomely nurturing and supportive, of their own children and others. They may do some "tiger mom" stuff outside of our activities, but if so, I just don't get to see it!
Edit: Typo.	A lot of these parent behaviors are driven by fears. If the community and math activities are built on love and care and helping each person to be brave, people behave gently.
I'm a student finishing up my bachelor's in math, and I have a 12-year-old sister who's interested in math as well. She enjoys interesting concepts, but doesn't like actually solving all the algorithmic problems she's given in school. How can I best support her and show her the parts of math that she'll enjoy?	Hi MPREVE - there are several things to do that will help. One easy thing is to find cute, profound, cool math pieces that are easy to share, and send them your sister's way, maybe when you chat. Like these videos (just start with one you like): Link to www.youtube.com
	You can also help your sister find a math circle, a robotics group, a hackerspace - any group that does math, science, and engineering for love, and that would treat your sister well. There are girl programmer groups and so on - look around, ask your sister what she loves, keep her involved in all decisions. If she connects with such people and enjoys the experience, it's a big huge step toward keeping your own values in learning (in spite of other, less meaningful experiences).
What's the most important advice to give elementary school parents about how to help their children succeed in math?	Choice.
	Whatever you do in math, arrange it so your child has three or more choices of that. Want to offer a problem? Have a selection ready, and help the child select problems. Learning multiplication tables by heart? Look at three or more methods (pattern-based, spaced repetition, number tricks) and help your child try them out, then pick what works. "Do you like algebra, geometry, or calculus more?" Well, expose your self and your child to other sixty large areas of mathematics, such as logic, topology, number theory - and help to choose the topics that speak to your child most.
	Help children make informed choices.
Being 24 I remember graduating high school when technology was starting to enter the classroom. Everyone had cellphones, the Ti-89 calculators could solve derivatives and integrations for us; basically, technology was in the hands of all students and we knew how to use it to our advantage.	The decision on which activities are best "unplugged" and which are great with tech is always interesting. For example, integration with LEGO is a lot of fun in physical space - but Minecraft is great for the purpose, too.

Last updated: 2016-06-21 16:36 UTC | Next update: 2016-06-21 16:46 UTC
This post was generated by a robot! Send all complaints to epsy.

In this, I'm being a BIT of a hypocrite. Mainly because it was late when I started this conversation and the kid did own me once or twice.. He was fucking ridiculous:
Stranger: hey wanna here a riddle
You: go ahead
You: *hear
Stranger: what goes up but never goes down
You: what world are you living in?
Stranger: it's a riddle
Stranger: guess
Stranger: what goes up but never ever goes down
You: oh right
You: jesus
You: you need to work on your punctuation (he didn't put a question mark, I couldn't figure out what he meant at the start xD)
Stranger: shut the fuck up
Stranger: i just wanted to make a conversation
You: okay okay
You: what does go up and never goes down
Stranger: i actually have good punctuation but htis this omegle
Stranger: u can text with good grammar
Stranger: so what goes up but never goes down
You: I don't know..
Stranger: ur age
Stranger: dumbass
Stranger: so ur actually really dumb hypocrite
You: I'm not a dumb hypocrite..
Stranger: yeah u r
Stranger: im a lot smarter than u
You: I just didn't know the answer to your riddle?
You: does that make me dumb?
Stranger: well u gave me an attitude
You: well I'm fucking sorry
Stranger: asshole
Stranger: i bet im smarter
You: you're a girl right?
Stranger: no
You: jesus..
Stranger: what
You: nothing
Stranger: u got a problem faggot
Stranger: i am so smart
You: and you call me dumb?
Stranger: yeah
You: if you're so smart
You: then
Stranger: yeah i am
You: hmm
You: let me think
Stranger: of what
Stranger: ur ass
You: You're smart?
Stranger: YES U ASSHOLE
You: and you come up with these insults?
Stranger: FOR THE 100TH TIME
You: A smart person would of given me an intelligent insult that made me feel bad for my existance..
You: calling me an asshole is not exactly showing intelligence..
Stranger: well i said more
Stranger: so shut up
You: what?
Stranger: i actually know more facts than u
You: okay then
You: how are you gonna prove that
Stranger: how are you gonna prove it
You: Am I speaking to a fucking 7 year old?
Stranger: no asshole
You: yeah, you really sound like a kid on COD
You: "I fucked ur mom"
Stranger: no i dont
Stranger: i hope ur mom gets raped
You: really..?
Stranger: and U
You: so you're definitely smart
Stranger: YES U RETARD
Stranger: Stop perseverating.
Stranger: what does that word mean (I decided to fuck with him, but giving credit to the kid, I didn't know "perseverating" off the top of my head)
Stranger: im testing u
Stranger: and yes i do know it
Stranger: don't look it up
You: perseverating is not a word..
Stranger: Perseverating!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stranger: u spelled it wrong
Stranger: so yeah u r dumb
You: thats not a word kid..
Stranger: YES IT IS (he mad)
Stranger: look it up actually
You: the closest word to that is perseverating
Stranger: LOOK UP PERSEVERATING (hehe)
You: okay
Stranger: it is a word mr know it all ("know it all")
You: Okay then, you know a long word
Stranger: Yeah
You: how does that prove that you're smarter than me?
Stranger: well I am winning because you didn't know that word, and i did
You: okay then
You: if you're so smart
You: then tell me
Stranger: What?
You: Here's a fucking riddle.
You: The man who makes me doesn't use me
You: The man who buys me doesn't need me.
You: The man who uses me doesn't know it
You: What am I?
You: oh, 7 year old dazzled by one of the most obvious riddles in history. (fucking with him again, It's not THAT obvious.. but pretty obvious)
Stranger: i know it i am typing if u don't mind
You: you're looking it up..
You: hahaha
You: you're pathetic
Stranger: It's a fucking COFFIN
Stranger: I AM NOT LOOKING IT UP
You: haha you looked it up! (he gonna get MAYYADD)
Stranger: ASSHOLE
Stranger: IT'S A FUCKING COFFIN, AND I AM NOT LOOKING IT UP
You: umadbro?
Stranger: What is the formula for the Pythagorean Theorem?
You: how old are you kid?
You: a squared + b squared = c squared
You: you're 12 aren't you
You: because I learned that shit when I was 12
Stranger: i am not telling u my age
Stranger: ask me vocabulary
Stranger: i am a master at that
You: so you can google it?
Stranger: I AM NOT GOOGLING IT
You: Yes you are
Stranger: u don't have proof
You: If you're so smart
Stranger: i swear on my life i am fucking not
You: do you read books?
Stranger: Oh what is the word that means sucking ur own dick?
You: do you read books?
Stranger: answer my question first. stop trying to change the subject just so you can get away from it
You: I don't know?
Stranger: Autofellatio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You: such a useful fact!
Stranger: What does sesquipedalian mean
You: now you answer my question
Stranger: yeah i do
Stranger: now answer my question
You: okay, what is your favourite book?
Stranger: y
You: just tell me
You: if you read books and you're so good at vocab you must have a favourite book
Stranger: i said i do!
You: you're looking up books now..
You: jesus christ..
Stranger: I AM FUCKING NOT
Stranger: I AM WATCHING A VIDEO
Stranger: I LIKE ESPERANZA RISING
Stranger: CHARLOTTE DOYLE
Stranger: PART TIME INDIAN
Stranger: THOSE R THE NAMES OF THE BOOKS U FUCKING LAME BRAIN
You: lame brain?
Stranger: omg u r so fucking dumb
Stranger: how do u not know what a lamebrain is like legit
You: I'm done with your shitty insults. What you need to do is tell your mother you love her, listen to some kidsbop and talk to me when you're 20 and you actually have some standard form of knowledge.
Stranger: i do
Stranger: u asshole
Stranger: u started this
Stranger: i am not the one who is being a dick, u r
Stranger: and go tell ur mom to fuck herself
You: I know what a lame brain is. Its one of the shit insults you dispersed at me.
Stranger: Well you were mean to me at first.
You: You're really bad at this
Stranger: i wanted to give u a riddle, and you just gave me attitude
Stranger: No, you are bad at this!
Stranger: Bitch ass motherfucker
You: ohh wudzy budzy I'm being mean to you
Stranger: Yeah you are you pussy
You: YOUR INSULTS AREN'T EVEN INSULTS
Stranger: Yeah they are
Stranger: I bet you're ugly
You: define insult for me smart boy
Stranger: I never said I was insulting u
You: so what in the fucks name are you doing if you're not trying to insult me?
Stranger: when you insult someone it means you say something mean or disrespectful to someone
Stranger: I NEVER SAID I WAS INSULTING U. I AM CURSING AT YOU BECAUSE YOU WERE BEING MEAN TO ME!!!!!!!! YOU'RE DUMB BECAUSE YOU ARE SAYING THAT I AM INSULTING YOU WHEN I'M REALLY NOT
Stranger: SO TECHNICALLY UR BEING THE DUMB ONE HERE
Stranger: How about you define insult, SMART BOY! (You fucking kidding me?)
You: Technically you need to calm your 12 year old boy tits before I find your mother and ctrl + c/v this shit
Stranger: fuck u
You: GOOD ONE
You: WOW
You: SUCH INSULT
Stranger: Wow you don't know what insult means.
You: VERY SMART
Stranger: I NEVER SAID THAT WAS A FUCKING INSULT. BY YOU SAYING THAT IT'S AN INSULT WHEN IT'S REALLY NOT IS DUMB. (wat)
Stranger: I SAID I WAS CURSING AT YOU BECAUSE YOU R BEING SO MEAN, AND A COCK!
You: oh, something new here!
You: a COCK
Stranger: That's not an insult.
You: I'm posting this hilarious shit on reddit
Stranger: If I said you were ugly or fat, that's an insult.
Stranger has disconnected.