| | Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful. submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments] If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you. Part II
Letting stops breatheWe talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight. Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch! One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure. For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches. Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size. ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart). Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon? Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc. Reasons to change a stopAs a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are. Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out. Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example. The mighty trailing stop loss order It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out. Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place? Entering and exiting winning positionsTake profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position. The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t. Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter. Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this. Entering positions with limit ordersThat covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205. You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in. So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?! There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders. Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD. Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct. Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around. Risk:reward and win ratiosBe extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money. If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below. A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders. That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips. One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region. Risk-adjusted returnsNot all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility. Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps . A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return. If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk. This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ... Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor. Sharpe ratioThe Sharpe ratio works like this:
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in. VARVAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%. A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade. Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often. These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment. Coming up in part IIIAvailable hereSqueezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer. |
| Category | Winner | Point Totals | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Popularity | Graveyard Shift | 12-17 | |
| Quality | Graveyard Shift | 19-20 | Reasoning |
| JoJolity | BADD GUYS | 24-18 | Reasoning |
| Conduct | Tie | 10-10 |
| Team | Combatant | JoJolity |
|---|---|---|
| Red Carpet Rennaisance | Emilie "Dread" Delacroix | "Wow! It's a hand drawn original color illustration!" You’re a cultured woman, and this museum might very well end up being wiped off of the face of the earth quite soon, so you need to make the most of it while you still can! Make sure to visit and appreciate the various exhibits on display here! (Character Specific) |
| Suburban Regalia | Bert | "What a terrible person. If I wrote about someone like you, none of my readers would like it." So this man is playing at god, trying to control life, death, and fate themselves? What foolishness! Clearly, only you can do such things, and you do them best! Over the course of the strategy, prove your superiority to this “Jack Aurel“ and take him down a notch! (Character Specific) |
| ??? | Jack Aurel | "Where the hell did you go?! Come out, you fucker!" It's now or never. This is the culmination of all of your plans, and failing is absolutely not an option here. During the fight, hold nothing back, and make sure to thoroughly defeat your opponents so that no one and nothing will ever stand in your way again! |
The Stateville Penitentiary Malaria Study was a controlled study of the effects of malaria on the prisoners of Stateville Penitentiary near Joliet, Illinois, beginning in the 1940s. The study was conducted by the Department of Medicine at the University of Chicago in conjunction with the United States Army and the State Department. At the Nuremberg trials, Nazi doctors cited the precedent of the malaria experiments as part of their defense. Link HereAny day that Nazi Doctors use your experiment as a defense for Nazi medical experiments is not a good day.
1913 to 1951: Dr. Leo Stanley, chief surgeon at the San Quentin Prison, performed a wide variety of experiments on hundreds of prisoners at San Quentin. Many of the experiments involved testicular implants, where Stanley would take the testicles out of executed prisoners and surgically implant them into living prisoners. In other experiments, he attempted to implant the testicles of rams, goats, and boars into living prisoners. Stanley also performed various eugenics experiments, and forced sterilizations on San Quentin prisoners.[13] Stanley believed that his experiments would rejuvenate old men, control crime (which he believed had biological causes), and prevent the "unfit" from reproducing.Whelp, at least you could say that Dr. Stanley had the balls to carry out his experiments.
In 1941, at the University of Michigan, virologists Thomas Francis, Jonas Salk and other researchers deliberately infected patients at several Michigan mental institutions with the influenza virus by spraying the virus into their nasal passages.[24] Francis Peyton Rous, based at the Rockefeller Institute and editor of the Journal of Experimental Medicine, wrote the following to Francis regarding the experiments:Wholy justified. Goes without saying. But we would never be so reckless with experiments today, no matter how justified, would we?
It may save you much trouble if you publish your paper... elsewhere than in the Journal of Experimental Medicine. The Journal is under constant scrutiny by the anti-vivisectionists who would not hesitate to play up the fact that you used for your tests human beings of a state institution. That the tests were wholly justified goes without saying.
On January 13, less than a week after COVID-19 was identified as the virus behind the outbreak in Wuhan, researchers at Cambridge-based biotech company Moderna proposed a vaccine to fight it. A little over two months later, on Monday morning, a pharmacist in Seattle injected Rebecca Sirull with that vaccine, making her the third person to be injected in a 45-person clinical trial, the first human trial in the country. To rush the vaccine to clinical trial, Moderna skipped animal testing, a somewhat extraordinary measure. Sirull, a healthy 25-year-old editorial coordinator at a research institute, will receive a second injection in a month and have her blood drawn regularly for more than a year. Should the test be successful, the more optimistic estimates suggest that a vaccine could be available in 12 to 18 months. Intelligencer spoke with Sirull about her decision to take part.Oh. Uhm. OK.
Jill Horowitz stood outside the Quaker Ridge Shopping Center in New Rochelle, N.Y.—an early COVID-19 hotspot—in March, stopping shoppers as they walked into the grocery store. She handed them blue pamphlets soliciting volunteers for a Rockefeller University antibody research study. “I would say, ‘Would you like to help us find a cure?’” says Horowitz, executive director of strategic operations at Rockefeller’s Laboratory of Molecular Immunology. “I didn’t even have to mention coronavirus. This neighborhood was completely subsumed.”Yessiree ladies and gentlemen, step right up, roll up that sleeve, and get a poke to save all the good folks out there from the pandemic. The one that contaminates surfaces, but now doesn't spread through surfaces. The virus that you don’t need a mask for because a mask will make it worse. The virus you might need a mask for because it wouldn't hurt, but it's not airborne. Put on a darn mask because the virus is airborne. Maybe. But air-conditioning makes COVID-19 worse. So only wear a mask inside. The virus that worsens with pollution, but don't worry about putting on the mask outside. Because if you wear a mask you'll stop the second wave. But there might not be a second wave, it might just be one long continuous wave.
Then: In a 1946 to 1948 study in Guatemala, U.S. researchers used prostitutes to infect prison inmates, insane asylum patients, and Guatemalan soldiers with syphilis and other sexually transmitted diseases in order to test the effectiveness of penicillin in treating the STDs. They later tried infecting people with "direct inoculations made from syphilis bacteria poured into the men's penises and on forearms and faces that were slightly abraded . . . or in a few cases through spinal punctures". Approximately 700 people were infected as part of the study (including orphan children). The study was sponsored by the Public Health Service, the National Institutes of Health, the Pan American Health Sanitary Bureau (now the World Health Organization's Pan American Health Organization) and the Guatemalan government. The team was led by John Charles Cutler, who later participated in the Tuskegee syphilis experiments. Cutler chose to do the study in Guatemala because he would not have been permitted to do it in the United States. In 2010 when the research was revealed, the U.S. officially apologized to Guatemala for the studies. A lawsuit has been launched against Johns Hopkins University, Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation for alleged involvement in the study.That is so reassuring as we move forward, isn’t it? And don't give me any that was back then we've changed arguments. We haven't changed at all. Proof? Ok. Let's go.
The miasma theory is an obsolete medical theory that held that diseases—such as cholera, chlamydia, or the Black Death—were caused by a miasma, a noxious form of "bad air", also known as night air. The theory held that epidemics were caused by miasma, emanating from rotting organic matter.Rotting organic matter, like at meat plants?
Endogenous Hydrogen Sulfide stimulates Mycobacterium Tuberculosis respiration, growth, and pathogenesis.At high concentrations Hydrogen Sulfide can be cytotoxic and reversibly inhibit cytochrome c oxidase. We've followed the White Rabbit and now we're digging. Can't stop now. Won't stop now.
In mammals, H2S elicits a biphasic, concentration-dependent mitochondrial response14, which can be cytotoxic or cytoprotective. For example, at high concentrations H2S reversibly inhibits cytochrome c oxidase (Complex IV)15–17. In contrast, at low concentrations H2S can serve as bioenergetic fuel to stimulate mitochondrial respiration without uncoupling of respiration. Link here
Defects involving genetic mutations altering cytochrome c oxidase (COX) functionality or structure can result in severe, often fatal metabolic disorders.Anemia? Like, the Momento movie? Do I have amnesia now and I have to live my life backwards?
Disorders involving dysfunctional COX assembly via gene mutations include Leigh syndrome, cardiomyopathy, leukodystrophy, anemia, and sensorineural deafness**.Link here.
Current management of COVID-19 is based on the premise that respiratory failure is the leading cause of fatalities (Zhou et al., 2020). Nevertheless, mounting evidence points to drastic systemic events taking place that contribute to accelerated COVID-19 pathogenesis. The “cytokine storm” is a notion that is reportedly hailed as the hallmark of the COVID-19 hyper-inflammatory state (Mehta et al., 2020). Consecutive studies linked COVID-19 related hyper-inflammation to systemic events including hypercoagulability, oxidative stress and altered iron metabolism. Mehta et al., 2020, Phua et al., 2020Hyperinflammatory and altered iron metabolism. Following? Good.
Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has been regarded as an infective-inflammatory disease, which affects mainly lungs. More recently, a multi-organ involvement has been highlighted, with different pathways of injury. A hemoglobinopathy, hypoxia and cell iron overload might have a possible additional role. Scientific literature has pointed out two potential pathophysiological mechanisms: i) severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV- 2) interaction with hemoglobin molecule, through CD147, CD26 and other receptors located on erythrocyte and/or blood cell precursors; ii) hepcidin-mimetic action of a viral spike protein, inducing ferroportin blockage. Link Here.Hypoxia? Where have I heard that before?
A dangerous symptom of the coronavirus that can cause a patient to fall unconscious or even die is known as hypoxia — when the body’s tissues do not receive enough oxygen. Dr. Richard Levitan, an emergency doctor working in New York City, wrote for the New York Times at the end of April that he has seen COVID-19 patients with “alarmingly low” oxygen levels, but no shortness of breath. He describes this as “silent hypoxia”. These patients had oxygen saturation levels as low as 50 per cent when normal levels are usually at 94 to 100 per cent at sea level, Levitan explained. These patients had oxygen saturation levels as low as 50 per cent when normal levels are usually at 94 to 100 per cent at sea level, Levitan explained.Low oxygen levels. Dysregulates immune system. Are your They Live sunglasses on? Are plugged into the Matrix or hacking the Matrix?
Tuberculosis (TB) is responsible for millions of deaths each year and several billion people are latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Mtb modulates host factors, such as endogenous gaseous signalling molecules, to persist in humans for decades. H2S has diverse biological functions, including modulation of immunity and cellular respiration. However, the role of H2S in TB is unclear. We found that mice deficient in H2S production are more resistant to Mtb infection than WT mice. Upon infection, Mtb increases host H2S, which suppresses central carbon metabolism and increases inflammation. Distribution of H2S-producing enzymes in human TB lungs showed that H2S is produced at the site of infection. These findings identify glycolysis and H2S-producing enzymes as targets for TB host-directed therapies.Don't Freak Out like LeChic, but I don't think we're in Kansas anymore Dorothy.
Dust clouds originate in the Sahara, the largest desert in the world outside the poles, and the Sahel, just south of the Sahara. Much of the dust originates in the Bodélé Depression in Chad, an ancient dry lake bed at the threshold of the Sahara and the Sahel. There, convective storms in the early summer whip the dry ground and loft particles of silica, iron, and phosphorous as high as 20,000 feet into the sky. Link HereAnd then we have this:
Residents wear face masks to protect themselves from the Saharan dust clouds covering Dakar, Senegal. N95 masks and even surgical masks can help protect people from getting sick from the dust. Breathing dust can trigger problems like asthma attacks and worsen conditions like heart disease. But particles from natural sources can pose some unique threats. “Desert soil can also be contaminated with bacteria and fungal spores or with toxic heavy metal,” Achakulwisut said. “For example, in the US Southwest, dust episodes there have been linked to outbreaks of Valley Fever and arsenic poisoning.” Link HereContaminated with bacteria. Guaranteed Anaerobic bacteria. And it carries along metallic compounds. Like this:
**A 2001 study in Limnology and Oceanography suggested that the seasonal windfalls of iron-rich Saharan dust become a banquet for red tides, blooms of algae that spill into the ocean like dye, deplete it of oxygen, and release toxins. Dust clouds can also host unwelcome stowaways. Jun 24, 2020 Link Here.Red tides. Blooms of algae. Or rather perhaps, Cyanobacteria blooms? All in a dust storm. Maybe we should start wearing masks, right? Don't want to breathe in toxic dust, do we?
But Snake Park is no paradise. For decades the residents have lived with the mine, which they say blows clouds of dust into their homes. Now Snake Park, formally known as Doornkop, is in the sub-district with the highest number of Covid-19 infections in Gauteng. Last week, Gauteng Premier David Makhura linked “cluster outbreaks” on mines, and people moving between them and where they live, to the Covid-19 infections in the western part of Soweto. In 2017, the Bench Marks Foundation, a nonprofit that monitors multinational corporations, released the results of a survey of household health in four mine-affected areas in Soweto. Mine tailings contain heavy metals and chemicals and cause various illnesses, including mental health issues and Down’s Syndrome. The report found that more than two thirds of the respondents in Snake Park complained about respiratory problems, including persistent coughs, sinus issues, asthma and tuberculosis. This year, the August dust storms in Snake Park will coincide with the expected peak of Covid-19 infections in Gauteng.Stranger and stranger, isn’t it? So strange that I would venture to say, Stranger Things haven't happened. You might want to read Flatten the Curve Part 39, and what I wrote about Turkmenistan and wearing masks for toxic dust. Link Here
“We can’t breathe well. This mine is very dangerous. It’s toxic,” Phongoma says, adjusting his bright blue mask. Looking at the mine dump, now glistening in the afternoon sun, he adds: “It’s a bomb. It’s a nuclear weapon — and with this Covid-19 thing, it’s going to explode.” Link Here
"a fall or flow of water over a cliff, a waterfall," 1640s, from French cascade (17c.), from Italian cascata "waterfall," from cascare "to fall," from Vulgar Latin casicare, frequentative of Latin casum, casus, past participle of cadere "to fall" (from PIE root kad- "to fall"). cascade (n.) a succession of stages or operations or processes or units;To prepare. To fall. Interesting choice for a name.
Meteor showers occur when the earth bowls through a dense stream of debris left in the wake of a comet, asteroid, or other space-borne object. Depending on where you look, you may encounter fewer meteors, however. Viewers in the Northern Hemisphere will see shooting stars emanate from the shower’s “radiant” point in the southern sky, meaning the best meteors with the longest tails will be most readily visible in the east and west. A much more spectacular meteor shower — among the year’s most prolific — will pepper the skies with a spattering of bright shooting stars and “fireballs” come mid-August. The Perseid meteor shower peaks the night of Tuesday, Aug. 11. Dozens of shooting stars could be visible beneath a clear sky every hour. Perseid meteors zip across the sky at 37 miles per second. Their diaphanous tails can appear white, orange, yellow, pink, turquoise and even violet, lingering in the sky for a few seconds. The rainbow spectrum of colors come from the combustion of magnesium, sodium and iron. Link HerePepper the skies with fireballs. Fall from the skies.
Comet 67P's rotten-egg smell comes from hydrogen sulfide, and the horse-stable odor comes from ammonia. These scents are blended with the fainter almond smell of hydrogen cyanide, the vinegarlike odor of sulphur dioxide and the sweet-smelling scent of carbon disulphide, researchers said. Link HereHnmm. It definitely sounds like Bill was getting ahead of the curve before we started to Flatten the Curve, by being a good student and getting prepared before the hoarders bought up all the toilet paper for the upcoming SHTF event.
| | Good evening, submitted by scarvesandsuspenders to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] TL;DR: Spy is going to dip below 205 by EOD 4/17. VIX will touch 95 by the end of April.First off i appreciate all the support I've been getting from some of you. BAN BET: If VIX doesn't touch 95 by the end of April i will take a one day ban from posting for every person who comments saying "BAN”. However fair is fair, if VIX does touch 95 you get banned for an entire month. (Over one million of you and only one of me so i gotta even out the odds.) First off thank you to all the kind souls leaving me nice messages. Now for all the haters. Oh i love it. Money is nice. But i enjoy the speculation game cause i get to pin my wit against the sheep. So i read your messages over a hot cup of tea, did a significant amount of research, and felt all riled up. So here i am acting cute and feeling frisky so I'm coming out with another ballsy bet. Spy is going to dip below 205 by EOD 4/17. VIX will touch 95 by the end of April. Here is the DD. https://imgur.com/G2eoTSs Here is a post made that shows the striking resemblance between the recent stock movements and the 1929 crash. Interestingly, a 27% drop from here would put us right at my support level (i will get to that in a second). Here we go. My DD. https://squeezemetrics.com/monitodix I have been for the most part ignoring DPI on this drop. Historically it has been very accurate but on this drop it has been acting extremely wonky. Big buys and big sells where they shouldn't be and not predicting the market correctly. For this reason i haven't been offering it more than a passing glance. GEX however is crucial. The lower GEX dips the more room we have to drop (and the faster). I expect some real violence in the market so I am keeping a very close eye on VIX. /ES weekly: https://www.tradingview.com/x/t0ipbVoY/ You can clearly see how crucial of a zone this area is based on how price continuously hangs around this S/R level. We have been rejecting it consistently and i believe we are on the verge of breaking to a lower level. If we follow the great depression chart a 27% drop would put us at my 1850 (right around my next crucial S/R level). I see support kicking in somewhere around 1900. /ES Daily: /ES Daily You can see the volume compressing as we prepare for the next big spike. Chaikin is up to that critical zone of 0 and is breaking back negative now. Price has been in a bear flag and consistently rejecting that 2630 level. BB and kijun are adding pressure and pushing price down. /ES 4HR /ES 4hr Here you can see the price break out of the 4HR and BB have been squeezing for the big move down. Volume breaking out chaikin breaking down, RSI breaking down, MACD breaking down. Essentially all systems go. CL is losing its battle with $20 support. I have been saying it will go to 10 for awhile now and that is becoming more of a reality by the day. /ES will follow..... 10 year treasury is on its last leg as well.... VIX is looking pretty and holding support in the area. This will look like a shit show but /VX 08' is the top left, /VX bottom left is now, VIX top right is 08', VIX bottom right is now. You can see the striking similarities and what will lead to the massive put buying that will launch VIX to 95. VIX and /VX comparison now vs 08' Now i would like to make this call more interesting. I wanna make a ban bet on this VIX portion of my play. If VIX doesn't touch 95 by the end of April i will take a one day ban from posting for every person who comments “BAN”. However fair is fair, if VIX does touch 95 you get banned for an entire month. Over one million of you and only one of me so i gotta even out the odds.) This is a win-win scenario for me. I don't have to deal with everyone here who acts like an idiot if i lose and if i win i get a much quieter, much less stupider, subreddit for a week (and hopefully a humbler one). BONUS: Mods have to deal with the shit show that would be required to pull this off and everyone knows. Mods are gay. Have fun, good luck, AND CHANGE THE DAMN LOGO. This is simply my opinion. I am not your financial advisor and this is not meant for you to take as advice in order to position yourself in the market. Also here is some education. Sorry for the books being temporarily down. Had an issue. Also its under a fake name i used for that email (my spam email). https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Xksox8mqbi3jAnzMez8_K-a1udOT1-dF If the above link doesn't work try this. https://www.dropbox.com/sh/9fjw7k5gel26g59/AABR_NDL6MjZZ1os8ZNTTYkca?dl=0 EDIT: I’m working on another way to post the material. I’ll put it up by EOD. Thanks for the patience. DONE! Saturday update: I’m holding everything still. No change in thoughts. Sunday: Final VX support( I can already see the misunderstandings coming so yes I wrote that correctly. It’s the vix futures ticker) is around 35. Looking for futures long there. Expect a final market push to 2655. To everyone declaring victory, it would be wise to wait till the final whistle before thinking the game is over. Monday update 1pm: in the process of loading up my last load of deeeeeeep OTM TQQQ positions. Every persons positions/situation is different but one common denominator is true... scared money don’t make none. So short the pop....faggot ;) Monday EOD update: fam we about to eat good. Monday update P.S: I am getting a lot of panicky comments and messages. This should help clear the air. Today was March 4 2020 on /es. To explain my logic I am referencing squeezemetrics and how we tested the kijun-sen. Tuesday update 10:45am : more panicky messages, more haters. I’ll summarize. I AINT FUCKING SELLING. Fake pump=big dump. Wednesday 10:15am: looking for a red day today to confirm the shooting star yesterday. The war is almost won... Wednesday 4:50pm: this is such a weird position to be in. Remember being early is the same as being wrong. Based on tomorrow’s price action I may be rolling, selling everything and looking for re-entry points, or holding/hedging. Sometimes no position is the best position. Bears lost the crucial 2655 and now we are pushing higher, 2785 is key on weekly and monthly. We could see as high as 3125-2990. The important thing to note is no one is really sure what is happening so you need to be either out of the market or hedging so you don’t get killed. This was a pivotal day. Tomorrow will tell us more since a weekly candle is also closing. You have heard it a lot here but the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I’ll probably be posting less and less this month (if it is to be the last) since this is getting more cumbersome as ppl get more annoying. BIG UPDATE: Wednesday late af at night: All you night owls wake the fuck up. Disregard my last update. I made a typical TA mistake by focusing on the smaller TF. Now that I acknowledged my mistake let me introduce you to my friend 2785. He is a nice guy. Top of his class (punny). Monthly:https://www.tradingview.com/x/nXiC6aAE/ Notice where the Tenken/Kijun converge? 2785. Use Ichimoku on the monthly during both the 08 recession and the 00 recession and you will see how it is ALWAYS respected. Weekly:https://www.tradingview.com/x/NbijzYBF/ Hello old friend 2785. Same. SPOT. Look how important that level was historically. Look the garbage volume on this fake pump. Here is another fun fact. 2785 is the EXACT 50% retractment from the previous move. Now lets talk time table. Daily:https://imgur.com/jK6XxtV Ok first of all. Look at the compression on chaikin. Looks like it has about a week before she pops. Look at the obnoxious oval directing you to the chikou span. That has about a week before it touches the price, about the same time before price encounters the cloud (obnoxious rectangle). Bonus point: spot our friend 2785 in the cloud). Also notice the crap volume compression on this rise? It is already starting to rip as big players offloaded the day before yesterday. What does it all mean? I AINT FUCKING SELLING. I am gonna roll all my shit because it is hotter than a fucking fresh tamale. Watch price action around 2785-2825. By the end of next week this shit may start cracking. This obviously means that i am almost certainly wrong about the 205 by 4/17. But i always said the timing is the most difficult thing to set up and i was trying to do it 3 weeks out on the dot. My VIX bet tho is very much in play.... Do what you please and i appreciate all the nice messages i have been getting and ill try to keep ignoring the mean ones. Lets see how this turns out! Ironically if you actually saw my last posts you would have see that i already basically predicted this top when i was seeing the bounce coming.... Just shows you to stick to the big picture/game plan https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fmzu51/incoming_bounce_vix_puts/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2xGL Update Thursday morning: I got out of everything that was short dated that i could on the minor pullback at open. Rolled over what I could. Bloodbath out there. I am looking to beef up my position in mid May-ish depending on price action and where it hits the targets. We are in this critical zone and markets are wild and extremely volatile right now. Push ups can be expected. Waiting patiently to add to my position when I see exhaustion. I am under the impression that it can push up until 4/17 and up to 2900. Perhaps some sideways action and then the drop... if you look at the daily chart again you can see why I think that. Going live to discuss today at 12 est https://www.twitch.tv/wallstreetbooyah 4/12/2020 12:45AM What can i say i like doing my research late at night.... As i explained numerous times before, now i am providing more detail regarding where the potential top can be but remember we are clear to drop at any moment... Here is where we are from weekly https://www.tradingview.com/x/w23Yph7g/ Notice how we closed below the tenken/kijun 2785 that i listed. Next week max top potential 2898. Daily for better TF; https://www.tradingview.com/x/GB31CHs4/ By Wednesday max top 3046 By Friday max top 2888 For those who catch on quick are seeing it's not a question of if we drop but from where. We are clear to drop at any moment. I believe it has to happen at the absolute very latest 4/20/2020. The only way my analysis is invalidated is with a daily close above the cloud/weekly close above 2898. Watch volume veryyyyy closely. If you see abnormal volume (extremely low/extremely high on /ES daily) then we are heading over the cliff. Bulls are living on borrowed time IMO... EDIT: updated some of the numbers for 4/12/20. Thanks to u/ModernAristois for pointing out that i was mistakenly using the wrong settings (was fiddeling with settings late night and forgot to reset when I was posting the pics/giving the targets). 4/15/2020 I bought a batch of TQQQ puts. Still have 2 loads of Ammo left. Will sell all at the latest end of next week if we break through the cloud and the trade goes against me. We will see what happens. No change in logic. Watch for spike in volume on a red day and rejection on cloud. 4/16/2020 New core position taken and maxed out per my strategy restrictions per trade. I will sell everything if I’m wrong at the latest sometime next week. If I’m right, it’s going to happen really soon or not at all. This is probably my last update/post before either gainz porn or a final sell-for-loss update/surrender. As always watch the daily cloud, watch CL, and watch volume. EDIT: the core position was in TQQQ puts 4/17/2020 Truly my final edit for this. Check squeezemetrics today. I have a shot at being right :) 4/27/20202 The day is finally here. Throwing in the towel. Sold everything and took the L. Reflecting back it’s easy to see where I went wrong. Instead of doing what I always do (having a thesis, waiting for it to confirm), I got eager and tried to predict where resistance would be and jump on before confirmation. Been a fun ride either way. From 1.4K -> 42K -> 30k. Sitting in cash until I see what I want to see. Thesis is honestly unchanged. I was just probably early. Still waiting and watching to see the volume spike I want and a break thru the 4hr cloud. Could be awhile since it looks like we are about to break the daily cloud. Market is going to do the ‘ol irrational longer than you can stay solvent. We have completely decoupled from reality so patience is key here to see where the big boi’s wanna let her slide. Could have a serious melt up/chop from here. Wishing you all the best of luck and I hope you don’t blame me for any money you lost. I simply provide my opinion on the market and execute accordingly. I only do this publicly in order to help people understand TA. I never had someone to teach me so I understand the struggle and lost feeling for anyone who is interested and new to TA. Taking the ban with my chin up! Fair is fair :) GL and stay safe. I am not your financial advisor |
For example, “3-4-5x Odds,” usually means you can bet 3x Odds on the 4 or 10, 4x Odds on the 5 or 9, and 5x Odds on the 6 or 8. Check out some great online casinos such as Sunpalace , Casino Max , or slotsplus . Odds Craps Bets. Now that you are familiar with the four most essential bets in the dice game, we will describe the other types of wagers, so that you will be able to establish your craps betting strategy. Odds wagers resemble side bets, and players make them after the establishment of a point in each game. Odds Craps Strategy - Taking and Laying Odds. There is a very rare bet offered in craps – one with no house advantage at all. This wager is called laying odds if you've already bet on the Pass or Come bet first. After a point has been thrown, you have the option of betting up to some multiple of your Pass line bet "on the odds." It’s clear why betting on the pass line and taking the most odds that you can is an effective strategy. With the odds bet, you can get the house edge in craps lower than 0.5% at least some of the time at the table, making it an even better game than blackjack. Craps Betting Strategy. In craps bets, all the action relies on the roll of the dice. Some players claim it's possible to control how dice land, but there's a variety of outside factors that affect craps which make the game truly random. Instead, the best craps strategies for players focus on managing bankroll and minimizing the house edge.
[index] [43125] [34964] [2540] [14976] [63059] [51906] [52705] [6410] [48015] [27262]
Craps Maximum Odds Bet is a a video discussing advice I hear a lot which is "you should always max out your odds bet." But is this good advice? In Craps Maxi... Don't try this Strategy, unless you want to win - Craps Betting Strategy. This is a Don't strategy by John Patrick. This craps betting strategy is called the... This Excel spreadsheet simulates a 400-bet session of the craps Pass bet taking maximum odds 3X-4X-5X, which is the best craps strategy. You can easily win o... This is my favorite craps betting strategy. Do I always win with this craps strategy? Actually I rarely do. But hear me explain in this video why I still rea... The odds bet in craps is a side bet with a zero house edge. I show a craps simulator and explain the payoff ratios for the various point values. If you want ...