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[Theory]In Superflex, the least impactful position is WR. In Superflex, the most important position to build around is... WR?
Intro Disclaimer #1 This is entire discussion is about superflex (which everyone should be playing) and 0.5PPR (which everyone should also be playing). I suppose it might be handy for other types of leagues, but interpret accordingly. Disclaimer #2 This is also only relevant for owners who aren't trade-shy. You have to be comfortable trading - possible many times. Disclaimer #3 I am bad with stats and such, I go off of my "jellies" a lot, but I think that is an underrated part of dynasty (no stats to prove that...heh). In that regard, I'm sure the statisticians of /dynastyff can poke plenty of holes in this, so take it for what it's worth. EDIT DISCLAIMER This is also talking about team building, continual success in dynasty, not about startups so much (though taking mid-tier WRs in startups is good, too). This is about growing tradeable assets on your squad. Alright, now that I have reduced the audience by about 60%, let's get into it. The title of this piece is intentionally contradictory, and I intend to explain why I believe that WR is the most important position in fantasy. Coping with Cognitive Dissonance In a superflex league, the typical line-up is 1 QB, 2 RB, 2-3 WR, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, and 1 superflex (which is another qb 90% of the time). Why is it another QB 90% of the time? In 2019, everyone's favorite poo bucket, #25 QB Mitch Trubisky, scored 206 points. Also in 2019, #5 WR Kenny Golladay scored 206 points. In 2018, journeyman stalwart #19 QB Case Keenum scored 202 points. #11 WR Keenan Allen scored 203. In 2018 it was #17 McCown to #3 Keenan Allen (again). You get the picture. So then, why on Earth would I claim that WR is a more important position to build around? To answer that question, we need to look into a couple of things: points over replacement and perceived value. Points Over Replacement Let's take a look at 2019's stats across the different positions. Last year:
the top 10 WR in the NFL averaged 14.4 ppg
WR11-20 averaged 12.2 ppg
WR21-30 averaged 10.6 ppg
WR31-40 averaged 9.2 ppg
Wr41-50 averaged 7.8 ppg
OK, now let's look at the same RBs, since you're presumably allowed to start the same amount.
RB1-10 averaged 17.2 ppg
RB11-20 averaged 12.0 ppg
RB21-30 averaged 9.4 ppg
RB31-40 averaged 8.0 ppg
RB41-50 averaged 5.8 ppg (yeesh)
Now the top 25 QBs, in tiers of 5 (since you can start less)
QB1-5 averaged 22.7 ppg
QB6-10 averaged 18.6 ppg
QB11-15 averaged 16.7 ppg
QB16-20 averaged 15.3 ppg
QB21-25 averaged 14.0 ppg
OK, whew. From these numbers, what stands out to you? Is it the high score of the low tier QBs? Is it the low score of the low tier RBs? Look closer. We're going to focus on one thing: look at the variation across tiers. Which positions are similar? Correct - the WR and QBs. I think it is pretty well known that the WR position is deeeeep. In real life, and in fantasy. And also well known that the QB is a great source of points in fantasy, especially in superflex. But i wanted to establish the mindset here that while the 5th tier of WR scores only half of what the 5th tier of QB does, the decline in ppg to get to that number is similar. Yeah, yeah, yeah - I know the Lamar Jacksons and CMCs and MT's of the world are important, but this "article" is about building your team, not about drafting a 1st round gimme stud. Perceived Value OK, so I think I have proved the first part of my title: The WR is the least impactful position. There are a lot of them. They don't score as much on the top end as RBs, nor as much overall as QBs, and there are plenty of them to go around. Now I'd like to talk about why they are extremely important to building your team. When drafting (rookie draft), it is commonly said that picks are a crapshoot, right? You have a 50% chance to hit, yadda yadda yadda. Going down in rounds, that % gets smaller and smaller. In Round 1, whatever, take Baker Mayfield, Saquon, CMC, Burrow, CEH. Those are super easy and super obvious. They match the numbers above. If a player is a high round draft pick IRL, and they go to a position that scores more points on the top end like RB, or scarce like QB, then it's a good bet. Do it. We're going to focus on drafting rounds 2-5 here though. Look again at RB tiers. If your chance of "hitting" on a pick is dropping as the draft goes along, and you're past the "obvious" high probability picks, why are you going to even think about drafting a RB in Round 3? Wouldn't you prefer to draft the position that has a ton of players on the roster and on the field, getting a more of a shot to "breakout". Smart money says that's what you want to do. Unless an obvious value falls to you in Rounds 2-5, draft a WR. Now, the perceived value of this. What's the timeline for each position? RBs have notoriously short timelines, right? Approx. 4 year shelf life, and can be fantasy relevant out of the gate. Remember though: if they are going to be fantasy relevant out of the gate, you likely won't have them in R2-5. With QBs, you have another obvious situation. If they are drafted to replace but aren't even very good (looking at you, Jordan Love), take that shot. But getting a useful QB past early round 2 in superflex is just... unlikely. So that leaves the good ol' WR. The position of 6-7 spots on an IRL team. Maybe 8 or so on your dynasty squad. When does a WR get good? It's common knowledge that a WR likely sucks their rookie season, yes? And they kind of follow the "3 year breakout rule", yes? So, therefore, they keep their perceived value for longer than an RB that hasn't produced in his 1st 3 years, or a QB that isn't a starter by Year 3. WRs are given longer to breakout and more opportunity to break out because of the nature of the game. This is where you make your money. If you're going to be throwing darts with your 2-5th round picks, make your darts more valuable after the fact. It seems as if so many WRs hold this weird, tantalizing value that they are going to be HOT SHIT. Sutton. Chark. AJ Brown. McLaurin. Metcalf. DJM. Kirk. Juju. Ridley. Boyd. Deebo. Hollywood. Mike Williams (hmmm). Sammy Watkins. (uhhh...) .Corey Davis (wait..). Dante Pettis (hol' up). The truth is, most of the time, they are just going to end up being average. But what makes the WR position unique is that there are SO. MANY. NEXT BIG THINGS. And this is why you need to be a Trader. You like AJ Brown? Ohhhhh man. He is SUCH a beautiful man. What about his running mate in college, Metcalf? BOING. What if you had BOTH, and someone offered you Daniel Jones or Jimmy G for them? What would you do? What if you had DJ Moore, the uber athletic guy who is DEFINITELY going be a top WR forever and someone offered you Kirk Cousins straight up? Would you trade Keenan Allen + Courtland Sutton for Miles Sanders? This is why you should, at all times, be trying to acquire as many WR as you can. The potential for a young WR is like catnip for the uninformed. The likelihood is that they will cap off at about 10-12 ppg. But having a bunch of players on your squad with 10-12 ppg, and people think they are 16-18 ppg players, makes you rich in resources. I would recommend pulling the trigger on every one of those trades above if your depth allows it (and, if you build your team as I have mentioned, you will), even getting some more picks out of them (to turn into more WRs next year). The scarcity of solid QBs and higher tier RBs trumps anything that a WR outside of the top 7 or so can offer you. Case Studies Let's look at my man, Corey Davis. He was drafted in 2017. He was along with CMC, Fournette, Mixon, Cook, Mahomes, Watson. He never looked good. BUT, the great thing about WR is that they have the built in "Oh, he is learning the offense, he will break out soon!" excuse. Corey Davis in 2018 still had damn good value. If you drafted him in 2017, you could still get decent return. 2019, you could STILL salvage him. Even last year, early in the season, he had some value. That year's draft was absurd, so you can drop down to the 2nd-3rd round and also look at players like Juju, Kupp, Godwin, and Golladay, and compare them with the morons would didn't follow these instructions and went after Jeremy McNichols, Foreman, or Jamaal Williams because they are RBs. In 2018, look at guys like Anthony Miller, Sutton, Chark (maybe DJ Moore?!?!) that were drafted in 2nd-3rd as well. Compare them to the value you get from Hines and Kallen Ballage, RBs that were drafted in that same range. Also, Josh Rosen! Rosen's value tanked almost immediately. You would not trade Anthony Miller for Josh Rosen now, because WRs hold their value on p-o-t-e-n-t-i-a-l. In 2019, according to Mizelle, people really took Damien harris, Darwin Thompson, Justice Hill over Deebo, Hardman, Hollywood, Diontae. Because they were betting on the wrong odds. Conclusion, TL;DR RBs and QBs are important for winning, yes. But for value, WR are #1. Beginning in the 2nd round, barring crazy people ahead of you that drop gems in your lap, take a WR with every pick. It is a better bet. Next year and the year after, the chances are that the value of those drafts picks has gone up more than it has if you didn't draft WRs. Then trade those "false hype" guys to your leaguemates for actual important positions. Fin.
I Can Make You Hot!: The Supermodel Diet (by Kelly Killoren Bensimon) -- Part Two
I hope you all have taken full advantage of the past 48 hours or so to regain some sense of normalcy after our adventures through Part 1 of Kelly Killoren Bensimon's I Can Make You Hot!Without further ado, Part Two: I resume my journey through the truly incomprehensible mind of Kelly Bensimon with a chapter entitled, "Thursday: Tricks of My Trade." Now that we've learned about the basic building blocks of hotness, Kelly promises to share even more hard-earned advice to help us really kick things up a notch. And, as she reassures us:
I'm actually glad for the mistakes I've made because anyone who doesn't make mistakes doesn't learn, and if you don't learn, you're boring!
And if you're boring, you're not HOT! I think I'm starting to get the hang of this! One of Kelly's most important life lessons came at her first horse show, when she made an unbelievably devastating misstep: "I decided to have an egg on a bagel from the food-service van." What kind of unimaginable ripple effects did this poor decision set off? I continue on to learn that Kelly "did all right in the competition." And…that's literally the whole story. Kelly legitimately refers to this as "one of my biggest lessons," as it taught her "to never eat more than I normally would." If life-changing breakthroughs were this easily sparked in my own life, I can't even begin to imagine how self-actualized I would be at this point. At this point in my reading, I have reached the book's first insert, which contains about a dozen glossy color photos from various phases of Kelly's life. Unfortunately, I am far too preoccupied by this picture, in which a carefree, wind-swept Kelly clenches her infant daughter under one arm with all the grace of an NFL wide receiver, to pay the rest of the spread much mind. We continue on as Kelly introduces new dimensions to the basic tips she's previously introduced. For example, you may have had some vague idea that water was important, but Kelly -- always there to help us learn and improve -- digs into the specifics to make sure we're up to date on the HOTtest tricks of the trade:
Staying hydrated is important no matter what you're doing, so I always try to drink eight glasses or about a liter of water a day. Soda isn't water. Coffee isn't water. Water is water. Drink throughout the day; don't try to get it all down at once. You wouldn't drown an orchid, so don't drown yourself.
I am putting in my formal request for a Public Service Announcement in this format, but using the last line of that passage. Also, Kelly clearly does not know how poorly I tend to my houseplants. The next page informs us that, "hot isn't just caliente; it's also spicy and sultry." Kelly promptly launches into yet another list of miscellaneous grocery items, this time focused specifically on "red-hot foods." Except it includes entries like "popcorn with sugar and cinnamon," and "Mike and Ike candy," so I'm not convinced Kelly didn't just lose track of the thread entirely by the time we got a few items in. However, this does seem like an appropriate time to introduce this picture, from the book's second photo insert, which clearly depicts the sleep paralysis demon that has haunted my dreams for the past several nights. We're also treated to this chapter's first "hot button issue" panel, in which Kelly pulls back the curtain on the shadowy, pro-salt cabal trying to control us all with their anti-sodium legislative agenda:
We keep reading about how bad sodium is for our health, but if you eat fresh foods that you prepare yourself, you can determine and control the amount of salt you want to use. I, Kelly Killoren Bensimon, am perfectly capable of deciding how much salt I want to put on my food. I don't need anyone else to salt my food for me. I know that the amount of salt I choose to sprinkle on my food is not going to hurt me.
I read on to find a two-page spread in which Kelly expounds, in rhapsodic praise to rival that of Song of Solomon, upon her ardor for her beloved dehydrator -- "I though I was in love with coffee, but now I think my dehydrator is my truest love." Most of the passage is taken up by an unstructured list of the various things Kelly has attempted to dehydrate ("cucumber," "mangoes," "avocado") but she does manage to squeeze in a few infomercial-ready lines -- "Really, you should buy one; I promise you won't be sorry." Since repetition is the key to reinforcing new concepts, I appreciate that Kelly's next list (of "a few more lean tricks I've learned along the way") repeats a note she originally relayed to us just a few pages ago:
Drink water throughout the day (not all at one sitting).
She's also been thoughtful enough to provide a list of resources for us to use as we soldier on along the perilous journey to HOT. After all, as Kelly says, "I don’t expect you to carry this book wherever you go -- as much as I would love that." As someone who has never before ventured into the wild world of cyberspace, I really appreciated Kelly introducing me to so many fun, useful websites that I might want to check out! In case you, too, just haven't figured out how to navigate this whole Internet thing, I've included a few examples below:
www.amazon.com One-stop shopping for just about any book, periodical, or product you might want to read or buy in order to get HOT.
www.espn.com Everything you need to know to stay up to date on any sport.
www.webmd.com Useful, up-to-date, trustworthy information on medical and health issues.
www.yummly.com Claims to have "every recipe in the world"
Can't wait to check these out later! That Amazon one sounds super cool! I'm reminded quickly just how inelegant the transitions in this book are as we move directly from that list into the following:
I suggest that you take a picture of yourself every day…Some days when you're feeling your fattest, you may be surprised to see that you really look great.
Okay, so fat is NOT HOT. Except being comfortable in your body is HOT. And trying to be skinny is NOT HOT. But being skinny is HOT. Thank goodness I still have a few more chapters to go -- I clearly still have a ways to go before I truly understand the logic of HOTness. As it stands, I must admit that I'm a bit baffled. Of course, returning to the previous bit of advice, Kelly doesn't actually have to worry about taking her own pictures like us plebeians -- "Having been photographed so often has provided me with a permanent retrospective catalogue of my life." The chapter closes with these words of wisdom:
The best kind of vanity is being vain about what you put in your body.
Friday's chapter promises to introduce us to the world of "Hot Couture," and I am excited to see what tips and tricks Kelly has managed to accrue over her lifetime in the cutthroat world of modeling . But first, we abruptly transition to a story about Kelly meeting Madonna shortly after both women had given birth. Kelly had "gained a healthy fifty pounds," which I am led to believe, from the context of the anecdote, is NOT HOT. Madonna, on the other hand, was "flat-stomached" and therefore "HOT and cool." Of course, Kelly reassures us hurriedly that she lost all the weight within the following six weeks and was "actually thinner than I'd been prepregnancy." I am at an utter loss as to what the point of this story could possibly be, but -- blessedly -- Kelly is gracious enough to explain:
So what's the lesson here? That Madonna had personal trainers and chefs to whip her back into shape, and I didn't -- and still don’t. I shouldn't have been comparing myself to her in the first place. My advice to you is: don’t compare yourself to anyone else, only to your own personal best.
This is a perfect example of something Kelly does throughout this book, which is to present a completely reasonable piece of advice (don’t compare yourself to others), but couched within such a bizarre and logically disorganized narrative that by the time I reach the ultimate moral of the story, my brain feels like it's been run through a series of meat grinders, and I'm reduced to just nodding along in bemused acceptance. We get a "Kelly's Cardinal Rule" reminding us to "let your body be what your body is and be happy with what you've got." I'm starting to wonder if there is some sort of Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde thing going on behind the scenes here, in which two versions of Kelly are frantically grappling over control of the book's body-positivity dial. I'm literally don't even have to flip the page to see Kelly commiserating with us that "we all have days or occasions when we feel fat" and quipping about her "go-to fat outfit." But also:
Stop praying for what you don't have and be grateful for what you've got.
This amount of cognitive dissonance is truly proof that Kelly contains multitudes. Or has recently acquired some sort of debilitating short-term amnesia. Nevertheless, we continue:
But whatever your shape, show it off. Don’t try to hide it. Hiding is not hot.
Kelly next walks us through figuring out which "season" we are, based on the wisdom extolled in "Color Me Beautiful, the groundbreaking book that was so wildly successful in the early 80s." It's no surprise to me that Kelly, who earlier encouraged us to make our lives easier by using our PDAs, finds this to be an exciting new trend to share. Also, in case you weren't aware, "hair color is also important. You can lighten it or darken it or cover the gray." Lighten it or darken it? The boundaries of my mental universe are truly expanding. Some more fashion tidbits:
Scarves are hippie chic, cool, and always HOT.
If you're narrow, show off how narrow you are with a monochromatic palette.
Ankles are the new cleavage!
Narrow ankles only, I presume. Kelly's selfless, giving nature is highlighted yet again in the following passage, in which she explains:
All these celebrities have stylists who pull the clothes, accessories, and shoes that make them look the way they do. They charge a lot of money for what they do, so why not get some free advice based on my experience.
And what, pray tell, is this coveted advice that Kelly is so lovingly sharing with her readers, free of charge?
Save sweatpants for the gym.
Save PJs for the bedroom.
Dress as if you were the boss.
Remember what Carrie Bradshaw says: "Nothing is casual anymore, even when it says so on the invitation."
Manolo Blahniks are a girl's best friend.
Okay, so far be it from me to complain about the quality of free advice. But. Out of the five pearls of wisdom that make up the "KKBStyle Rules," two of them are rudimentary instructions to wear somewhat-situationally-appropriate clothing, and the other three are the kind of cute sayings that you would find on a piece of poorly bedazzled wall art in the clearance aisle of your local TJMaxx. I'm not impressed. Kelly next tells us how important it is to eat well and exercise, even "when you're premenstrual or having your period." That way, as she continues on, "you'll feel better because your endorphins will be flowing while your body is sloughing off unwanted endometrium and mucus." To be fair, Unwanted Endometrium does sound like a sick band name. Thankfully, the mental image of Kelly's mucus slough is promptly booted from my mind by a careening diatribe about the color red (HOT!):
I even painted my nails red the minute I started writing this book. I wanted to see my short red nails tapping away on my Macbook Pro. Almost every red dress is smokin' HOT, and I've never met a guy who doesn't think a woman in a red dress isn't hot. He's a liar if he denies it.
To repeat, Kelly says she's "never met a guy who doesn’t think a woman in a red dress isn't hot." Poor dear got a bit carried away with her negatives, but I'm sure she'll redeem herself in no time:
When I was sitting in the front row of a Marc Jacobs fashion show a few years ago, I wore a full, red short skirt, a tight red sweater, and red open-toed shoes. One of the editors from The New York Times was sitting across from me, and as we were waiting for the show to begin I kept crossing and recrossing my legs to make him laugh.
Sure, Kelly. To make him laugh. I can only assume she must have written some kind of hilariously clever joke on the gusset of her underwear to have had this editor so tickled pink red.
It was a long wait and after a while some guy I didn't know who was at the other end of the row, leapt towards me and screamed that he was obsessed with my feet. How crazy is it that red open-toed shoes and red toenails could create such a reaction. Red is HOT, even stalker HOT. Yikes!
I'm not clear where "stalker HOT" fits into this whole complex web, but it's reassuring to know that a wise soul like Kelly has such a nuanced appreciation of all of the different ways to be hot. She also gives us some "HOT tips for heating up your image." Like,
Put on a pair of jeans and a white tee shirt.
Put your hair in a ponytail.
Put on a pair of hoop earrings.
And also
Wear your jeans a size smaller instead of a size larger.
For some reason not entirely clear to me at this moment, wearing jeans in your actual size does not seem to be an option. The chapter continues with a reminder to "remember what's on top of your head!"
There's nothing hotter than a HOT head of hair (unless it's a hunky bald guy).
Kelly follows up by offering a list of what she calls "HOT healthy options." Based on the preceding paragraph, you might assume that these tips would have something to do with haircare and hair styling. However, you would be wrong. Instead, we're instructed to:
Enjoy as much watermelon as you like.
Pack a picnic lunch of dehydrated fruit, chamomile iced tea, and mini pizzas made with corn tortillas, cherry tomatoes, and mozzarella cheese. Eat your picnic in the park.
Come up with something fun you want to try and do it!
Personally, it seems like a bit of a cop-out to make one of the items on your list of fun things to do "make up your own fun thing to do." But who knows? Maybe cop-outs are HOT! Before my faith in our fearless leader starts to waver, however, I read on through the end of the chapter, and my surety is promptly restored:
Besides my hair and my legs, the one thing people always ask me about the way I look is how I keep my teeth so white. And yes, that's also a matter of genetics. I'm blessed with the whitest teeth on the planet, and, no, I've never had them professionally bleached.
The weekend begins as I turn the page to the penultimate chapter -- "Saturday: Heat Up Your HOT Image with Healthy Options Today." Saturdays, as Kelly tells us, are for fun activities. For example:
If you're in the mall, go to different stores and figure out which looks will make you HOT. Ask other shoppers for advice.
Also:
Parks are great for people-watching. Who looks fit and healthy?
I sincerely hope that any and all of my friends would give me a stern talking-to if I informed them that my weekend plans consisted of going to a park and…pointing out people I think aren't healthy enough? Kelly then warns us against overindulging on late-night snacks or alcoholic beverages, lest we wake up Sunday feeling "bloating, sluggish, and with deep regrets." Presumably, Kelly then proceeded to rail a massive line of cocaine and hammer out the following frenetic spiel:
You're not going to get fat from having a few drinks a week. You will get fat if your routine is to drink, eat late, and then lie around watching television the next day, eating and making bad food choices. Going out is fun, but when you sacrifice the next day, it's never fun enough. Don't have regrets; enjoy every day. This is a life plan, and yesterday isn't coming back ever again.
The chapter comes to a close with a reminder to "wrap up every day with a great big bow and be ready for your next adventure. But before we close out our week of HOT, we're provided with what I anticipate will be an incredibly useful reference material for us all, the "KKBfit HOT Quiz." If you'd like to take the quiz yourself, you can find it here. However, I'm not entirely sure I would classify it as a "quiz," since it seems to be mostly a set of questions followed by Kelly's feedback on various possible responses. For example:
How Kelly Green are you?
I had a Kelly Green Juice -- Wasn't it yummy? I had a smoothie from the health food store with a splash of spinach -- Great choice! I had kale chips, spinach, and quinoa for dinner last night -- I bet you woke up feeling great this morning! Other?
I presume that the lack of response after the "Other?" choice is supposed to represent Kelly staring at me in deranged disappointment for a few painfully protracted seconds. Some questions, like the one above, don't seem to have any wrong answers at all. In contrast, other questions have clear wrong answers, which Kelly wastes no time in making apparent:
Are you getting enough protein? How many days did you eat chicken, fish, or meat for at least one meal?
I had a grilled chicken salad for dinner on three different days -- That's good, but I wish you'd get a little more adventurous in your choices.
How KKBfit are you?
Haven't had a meal since last night, but I'm going to skip breakfast and go on a run. I won't eat anything until lunch. -- Sorry, but starving your body is not KKBfit.
Are you drinking enough?
I drink when I'm exercising but that's about it -- Not good enough! Try harder next week.
The quiz ends, leaving me entirely unsure of whether or not I've actually made any forward progress towards my HOTness goals, but the next page does promise help for those who "still need more inspiration." Here, it seems that Kelly has compiled a loose assortment of quotes, most of which (I have a sneaking suspicion) were found by searching the keyword "hot" on BrainyQuote.com. Also, this masterpiece from Kelly's ex-husband, noted fashion photographer Gilles Bensimon:
HOT-- It is not about the look, It is not only about the charm, It is the perfect combination: Sweet and tough, Sexy and reserved, Fragile and powerful, And definitely smart. -- Gilles Bensimon
Move over, Rupi Kaur! I hope with every fiber of my being that Gilles Bensimon has published his collected poetry in some kind of volume that I could purchase, read, and have, I'm sure, nothing but positive things to say about. After about a dozen similar quotations, Kelly continues:
Now, as you get ready for Sunday Funday, take a few minutes to think about how you define HOT. Has your definition changed or evolved since you started reading this book? If so, I'm doing my job.
In all honesty, my definition of HOT has definitely been…affected by this experience. So we'll call that a win! Kelly tells us a few stories about times when her friends and family members have come to her for guidance on how to be hot. She explains:
I'm not the food police, but I've made myself the Sven-arbiter (as opposed to Svengali) of what's HOT and what's not.
Case in point:
It's just not hot to belong to the clean plate club.
The chapter closes with a list titled "Why Don't You," which I believe is supposed to be a list of fun activities we can try during a Sunday Funday. Or possibly a list of terrible life hacks for stoned college freshmen:
Use an electric teapot as a clothing steamer.
Make grilled cheese sandwiches or press wraps using a hot clothes iron.
There are very few things sadder to me that imagining someone taking Kelly up on this last bit of advice as a fun way to liven up what must be the most preternaturally boring existence possible. If your idea of fun is white bread and Kraft Singles getting slowly warmed over on your clothing iron, I can only imagine the fit of hysterics that you'd be thrown into by a passable Minions meme. And that brings us to the end of the week. But not -- lucky you! -- to the end of this book. Au contraire -- the remaining 100 pages or so of I Can Make You Hot! feature dozens of unique recipes from the culinary mind of none other than the indomitable Kelly Bensimon herself. In her intro, however, she makes it clear that
No one on earth would ever call me a chef.
Of course not, Kelly -- they'd call you a cook. Otherwise, it's creepy. This portion of the book begins, reasonably enough, with Breakfasts. These include such thoughtfully named delicacies as "My Favorite Cereal" and "My Favorite Pancakes." The recipe for the latter begins with the following introduction:
I'm not the greatest pancake maker, and I probably never will be. But what I am very good at is thinking of unusual things and doing them.
Frankly, I can't argue with that. As she continues:
When in pancake doubt, have fun, add fruit, and see if pancakes can be a vehicle for creating great memories for your family.
Next time I'm in pancake doubt, I'll know just what to do! We move right along into the Soups and Salads section, and are promptly introduced to Kelly's "Jimmy Achoo's Chicken Soup." Which is apparently a play on Jimmy Choo and also described by Kelly as "filled with veggie exploitation," which sounds terrifying. Of the next recipe, "Rich and Skinny Cauliflower Soup with Kale Chips," Kelly reflects:
I adapted this recipe from one I found on the Internet. I wish I could tell you exactly where, but I can't.
The recipe calls for kale chips, which Kelly goes out of her way to inform us can be purchased "at health food stores and many well-stocked supermarkets." We also get a few general "HOT salad tips" that can be applied to many of the recipes throughout this book, such as
There are so many different types of lettuces available today! Try different ones to see which you like best
and
When you order a salad in a restaurant, ask for the dressing on the side. You're a grown-up and you should get to decide how much you want to use.
With that under our belts, the grown-ups among us move on to "Meat, Chicken, and Fish." In her recipe for "Grilled Rib Eye with Herbes de Provence", Kelly tells us about meeting the famous chef who inspired this dish:
When I met Eric, who was still in his thirties at the time, he still had dark hair. I was caught off guard because I thought all chefs were older, had gray hair, and smelled like garlic.
So perhaps Bethenny should have taken it as a compliment? Kelly continues,
He's since invited me many times to go into his kitchen and cook with him, but my fear of losing a finger by being overzealous has prohibited me from accepting.
It's unclear to me exactly what this means or why Kelly would even be particularly worried about this possibility. Does she have habit of excitedly snatching vegetables out from other people's knives? Does Eric have a reputation for slicing anyone who dares to get in his way? Before I make any headway with this particular mystery, we're introduced to the next recipe, the "Pencil-Thin Skirt Steak." As we learn, "Everyone looks slim in a pencil skirt, so it's only fitting that skirt steak is one of the leanest cuts of beef you can buy." We get a recipe for "Sultry Roast Chicken" in which Kelly shares with us that "in fact, chicken without ginger doesn't taste like chicken to me anymore." This would be more believable if we weren't, a mere two pages later, introduced to a notably ginger-free recipe for "Second-Chance Chicken." As Kelly explains,
I hate the idea of leftovers. To me, eating leftovers means you're too lazy to start over, and I've never wanted my girls to think that we weren't starting fresh.
In the introduction to the recipe for "Bad Girl Wings," Kelly gives us yet another poignant insight into her life as a mother:
These chicken wings are Sea's favorite. I'm sure she loves them because she knows I love wings (she's a cutie like that).
It would obviously be ludicrous to assume that Sea actually enjoys chicken wings authentically. Much more likely that she just loves them because Kelly does. HOT! In a segment labeled "hasta la vista taco bell," Kelly recounts a traumatic experience in which she "discovered that my favorite food choices [at Taco Bell] added up to 580 calories." To me, this seems like a perfectly reasonable amount of calories for one daily meal out of three, but according to Kelly, I am embarrassingly off the mark. Rather, she sighs, "I guess that means my Taco Bell days are over -- unless I decide to chance [sic] Sunday Funday into Fatso Food Day." Not HOT. Kelly tells us about the creative process behind the development of the next recipe, "Spicy Sultry Shrimp and Mango Stir-Fry" (which, for the record, is the second recipe to have the word "sultry" in its title).
This was one of the first dishes I made when I started to cook -- as a science experiment. My "method" was to think of foods I loved and which ones I thought would go well together.
Fascinating! Think of ingredients you like and combine them into a dish that you will then likely also like! The next recipe, for "Kelly's Kalamari," features the following introduction:
I still love fried calamari, but it doesn't love me. Whenever I eat it, it goes right to my stomach and makes a little pooch -- eww!
As a reminder, this is the same Kelly Bensimon who told us that loving our bodies is HOT and dieting is die + t. But also, eww! We trek along into the next portion of the recipe book, succinctly titled "Pizza, Pasta, Potatoes, Grains, Vegetables, and Sides." We get a recipe for "Pizzzzzzzza!," which instructs the reader to obtain pizza dough, pizza sauce, mozzerella cheese, salt and pepper. Spread out the dough, add sauce and cheese, and cook! This is yet another time I'm glad Kelly told us early on in this book to take detailed notes -- these kinds of nuanced culinary creations can only come from the mind of a true master. The same kind of true master who would, as we soon learn, conceive of this particular travesty -- "Pink Pizza." Imagine with me, for a moment, that a dear friend invites you over to their house for dinner. I'm making pizza! they implore you. Come over -- we'll hang out, have a couple beers, catch up on old times! Excited for a chance to relive the glory days, you eagerly accept, only to be met -- upon your arrival -- with this abomination.I thought you said we were having pizza? you sputter nervously. This is pizza, your friend intones, as their eyes slowly fade to black and their hands reach out to wrap themselves around your throat. Kelly goes on to share a recipe for an "Asian-flavored noodle dish" that she has christened (and it truly pains me to type this), "Me Love You Springtime Noodles." Somewhere, the last ember of hope for humanity quietly fizzles out. The following recipe, for "Pasta with Oddkavodka Sauce" begins with a warning:
When you make this (especially for children) just be sure you cook off the alcohol so that you aren't serving vodka to minors or have to assign a designated driver for your guests.
This seems like reasonable and conscientious advice. Until I read on and learn that the recipe calls for 1/8 cup vodka, and makes four servings. If your guests need a designated driver after consuming a half-tablespoon of vodka each, I would strongly encourage them to seek medical advice forthwith. I am reminded once again how different Kelly's and my worlds are with the following exclamation:
Try using quinoa in this recipe instead of the rice -- I call that having your cake and eating it too!
Oh, to live a life in which your most selfish indulgence was quinoa. I suppose this should have prepared me for a few pages later, when Kelly remarks:
Both hummus and guacamole make great toppings for steak or fish. They're my version of béarnaise sauce.
I love hummus. Hummus is great. But there is no possible existing parallel universe in which hummus and béarnaise sauce are interchangeable. One of the final recipes in this section is cryptically titled "Have an Impromptu Pepper Party" and instructs the reader to scoop out the insides of a bell pepper and stuff it with "whatever ingredients suit your fancy." Again, I feel like this fails to meet the definition of an actual recipe, per se, but it is supposedly "quick, fun, and satisfying." We're nearing the book's end (for real this time) with a section on "Breads and Desserts." This includes an inspirational passage in which Kelly shares a personal anecdote:
On Season 4 of the Real Housewives of New York City, I made a mixed fruit pie for my kids with what was left over in the fruit bowl…Don't be afraid to try new things, make mistakes, and have fun doing it.
I can only hope to someday be brave enough and fearless enough to make a mixed fruit pie. Blessedly, the final section , titled "Beverages", looks like it might have exactly what I need in the aftermath of finishing this book. The "GIN-Ginger Beertail," for example, which "was originally made with gin, but I don't like serving gin drinks because I think it makes people mean." We also get a recipe for something called "Babylove," which (thankfully) seems unrelated to another of my favorite reality TV cesspools. It only seems appropriate to share the final recipe of I Can Make You Hot! with all of you. I will definitely be downing approximately seven of these tonight, and I hope some of you will be joining me in spirit. Cheers:
Gummi Bear Martini If you don't have a paper umbrella handy, Gummi Bears are a great way to put more fun in your drink. Makes 1 Drink 2 parts orange, grape, or other-flavored vodka 1 part Triple Sec 1 part white grape juice Splash of cranberry juice Gummi Bears, as many as you like Combine the vodka, Triple Sec, grape juice, and cranberry juice in a tall glass. Add ice and fill the glass with Gummi Bears.
ETA: I am so disappointed in myself for forgetting to include that Kelly has a ceviche recipe that instructs you to marinate raw fish in lemon juice for exactly two minutes before serving. In the interest of food safety, perhaps it was for the best that this nugget momentarily slipped my mind, but sharing this information with you all is the burden I have been cursed to bear. 🙏🏼
My name is Russ and I am a compulsive gambler. My last bet was April 2nd 2019. Back to Step Work for this blog and Step 8 is the next one up. I’ve gotten so much out of working the Steps it really has helped me on my recovery journey. As usual, anything in bold or italics is from the worksheet, the rest is my own. Step 8: Made a list of all persons we had harmed and became willing to make amends to them all. Step 8, Exercise 1 Write about: In what ways (spiritually, emotionally, mentally, physically, financially) did you harm yourself through gambling. List and write about them. Be specific. Spiritually - Psychology Today states “Spirituality can mean different things to different people. For some, it's primarily about participation in organized religion. For others, it's a non-religious experience that involves getting in touch with their spiritual selves through private prayer, yoga, meditation, quiet reflection, or time in nature.” So, with that, considering I am not a religious person and I don’t want to avoid answering this part of the step I am going to focus on the non-religious part. I view spirituality as getting in touch with your inner self, being able to focus and improve the inner me and the only thing my addiction did was make me truly hate who I was deep inside. The further I got into my addiction, the deeper I dug my own hole, the more I hated and resented who I was. Gambling was destroying the inner me so much that I had no idea who I was anymore. Emotionally - My addiction made me emotionally numb, I couldn’t feel anything for anyone, not even myself. At the start I would be emotional about wins and losses but towards the end I didn’t care anymore. When I look back now I can see the vicious cycle I was stuck in, I’ll try to explain it here. I gambled to escape, I fully believe that. What was I escaping from? Who I was inside was one, gambling would allow me to escape that person for a short time. The real world, responsibilities, gambling allowed me to escape those as well. Emotions though, these were the big things I feel like I was escaping from. They were always something I have struggled with, expressing them, being honest about how I felt, controlling them and gambling allowed me to escape having to deal with them. When I gambled it would numb my emotions, I thought I was happy when gambling but really I was just escaping. I didn’t feel anything, the addiction took over and it was like I was on autopilot. At that point though I thought I was controlling my emotions by gambling. The chasing my losses came when the money was about to run out and I realised I would have to go back into the real world and no longer would I feel safe the way I did in my online world of gambling. So I would chase my losses to get more fuel to allow me to escape longer. The longer I could escape the more numb my emotions became until I came back to reality once the fuel finally ran out. I couldn’t deal with who I was, responsibilities or emotions in the real world so I desperately needed to get more money to get allow me to escape. This was the cycle I was stuck in. I didn’t realise at the time that gambling was causing a lot of this damage because I was blinded by my addiction. Towards the end I still had that small hope, that little thought that somehow, someway, I could gamble my way out of this mess. That was the addiction talking and thinking for me because it had totally consumed me. Mentally - I was a broken man when I finally owned up to my partner about my gambling addiction. It was like my brain had put me into a nosedive and was flying me towards rock bottom. The weekend before I asked for help I could feel that sensation, that sense of inevitability. This was going to end in disaster unless I reached out for help. The thing that scared me the most about asking for help and admitting my problem was at the time I knew I would lose the one thing I loved the most in this whole world. It wasn’t my kids, it wasn’t my partner, it was gambling. Even at that point, after all it had put me through, I was still terrified that I would never be able to gamble again. That’s how mentally broken I had become. I loved gambling, I still do in a weird way but that’s for another time. My addiction had pushed me to the edge, my mental edge of how much I could take at that moment. I think addiction has a real bend but don’t break mentality. It wants to push us to that edge, to push us far enough that we still come back to it each time. Once it breaks you though, there only seems to be two options, recovery or death. I still can’t believe I admitted to my partner I had a problem, but I did and it’s saved my life. “You hear that, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability. It is the sound of your death. Goodbye, Mr. Anderson.” Agent Smith Physically - I wouldn’t eat healthy when gambling because I saw it as a waste of my money. I would live on energy drinks, coffee and biscuits while at work. Have dinner at home and snack into the wee hours while gambling on shite tennis in the middle of nowhere. I didn’t exercise (to be fair I still don’t) but I wouldn’t want to leave the house at all when I was gambling. Lack of sleep was another massive thing for me. It wasn’t unusual for me to be sitting up until 4am and then waking up with the kids at 6am. Doing that day after day eventually catches up with you. I’d crash early one night then just repeat the cycle. I was constantly late for work as I couldn’t motivate myself to get up and get going. I was a mess. Financially - Gambling has destroyed me financially when I look at it. I’ve debt that will take me 10 years to pay off at the current rate, my credit rating is destroyed and I have to deal with the consequences of my actions for a long time. I’ll probably never be fully trusted with money by my partner and anytime something happens with regards to money the first thought in everyone's mind will be was I gambling. The chance to buy a nice car or house in the near future are out the window and I have to make do with what I have at the moment. This next part is going to sound super selfish because when it comes to finances I don’t care how long it takes to pay back, it will be paid back eventually. I don’t focus on it, I’m in no rush. Now, it has impacted other people as well which I will get to in the next section, but for me personally my attitude to it all is...it is what it is. Make a detailed list of all others you harmed through your gambling. Describe how you harmed them. Be specific. My Partner - This links nicely after the financial section above because, although it isn’t the main issue, I believe my partner has been hurt by me financially. Now all the debt is in my name, it is my own debt, but obviously there is the wasted money and the money I am paying out each month in debt repayments. More importantly though is the lies, the hurt, the bullshit I have put her through over the years. She said to me recently, “you are so in touch with your emotions now when for years you didn’t give a fuck about mine when you were sitting up all night gambling.” She’s not wrong. My behaviour has definitely had an effect on our relationship. My Kids - I’m lucky in a way that my kids are so young that I probably have a chance to make things right with them. They are blissfully unaware at the moment about my gambling addiction but it is something I will talk to them about when they are older. What I do know I have done to them is shouted at them for no reason, making them feel bad because I was having a shit time gambling. I ignored them to gamble. I made them feel like they were annoying me when they were fighting for my attention and affection. Bottom line is, they played number 2 to my gambling, to my addiction. My Parents - The bank of Mum and Dad was a thing I took the piss with right up until I was 32. I was constantly borrowing money, of course all based on lies, and then struggling to pay it back. When I struggled I just assumed they would be ok to wait but I didn’t think how that made them feel. Turns out it made them feel awful because they didn’t like asking for the money back. I used them as a babysitting service but could barely muster up a conversation with them. My Mum had cancer during my addiction and I never asked her how she was, I didn’t show concern, I just let her get on with it. I also hurt them by not feeling like I could open up to them about how I was really feeling. Other Family Members - Birthdays, anniversaries, visits, whatever it was I was on my phone gambling and ignoring what was going on. I didn’t want to be at these things because they were getting in the way of my gambling and I was anti-social at events. More than that, I was an ignorant bastard. January 2019 my Granda passed away and at the funeral everyone was so emotional, I didn’t understand. I didn’t feel anything. It makes me feel terrible now but that’s just the truth, I couldn’t feel anything because my addiction had destroyed my emotions. My Friends - The amount of lies I told my friends, from why I couldn’t go out to why I needed to borrow money from them. It was all the time and got worse over time. I owed my friends so much money and on top of that I stole from the NFL fantasy football leagues I run. I broke the trust of everyone close to me, I lied to their face or over text, I avoided them when I had to pay back money. My Job - Honestly, I’ve no idea how I’m employed. In fact, I got a promotion during my addiction, towards the end of it. My productivity was terrible, my interactions with other staff members was awful and my level of customer service was a disgrace. This is worse because I am dealing with vulnerable people. Step 8, Exercise 2 Write about: Review your lists from Step 8, Exercise 1. Are you carrying any guilt or shame over the harm you did to others? Are you still angry or blaming others for the harm done to you? Write about your feelings of guilt, shame, anger or blame. Currently I have to say I am still ashamed of what I have done in the past and how my actions, especially those to my family, have affected them. I didn’t lose any relationships over this addiction, although that doesn’t mean it can’t happen if I do not keep up with my recovery. When it comes to anger and blaming others for the harm done to me I never experienced that in recovery. From day one I fully accepted I was to blame for my addiction and although the gambling industry could be doing a lot more, the bottom line is, no one held a gun to my head and made me gamble. Plus, if any bookmaker had stopped me when I was gambling I would have just found another one. The person who needed to change was me. Choose a way (visually, symbolically, spiritually or physically) to release your feelings of guilt, shame, anger or blame. Describe this process of letting go and how you felt afterward. I still get feelings of shame when I go back and write about certain things that have happened in the past but in general I feel like I am in an ok place. Writing has really helped me process thoughts and feelings of guilt and shame and the other thing that has helped me was understanding and accepting the serenity prayer. “Grant me the serenity, To accept the things I cannot change, The courage to change the things I can, And the wisdom to know the difference” Are there any legal or financial situations you created while gambling with which you will need additional assistance or support to make direct amends/repayments? Are you willing to ask for help with them (i.e. from a sponsor, Pressure Relief group, employer, court system, bank/creditor)? Yes, I am currently in a Debt Management Plan which is through Step Change debt charity and they have helped me massively. Russ
Building and improving on existing D/ST projections
Hello and welcome back! When I started projecting D/ST points in 2012, things were a little different. I did most of my work by hand, to-and-from (and during) work, and the exercise was more to explore what could be done rather than anything too serious. I only ranked the options and did no projections. The thread got 11 comments – and only half of them were my own. In the six seasons since, I’ve made some big changes. Most importantly, they’ve all been good: I went back to school and graduated in mathematics. I found a job in data analysis. I’m getting married! And perhaps most relevantly to everybody here, the 2018 NFL season will be the first in a long time where I won’t be projecting D/ST scoring. So, this will be my attempt to unload everything I know so that somebody else (or many someones else) can pick up where I left off, improve the methodology, and continue to share their results with the fantasy community. Let’s start with the basics: D/ST scoring is composed of three main parts:
Points allowed
Sacks
Interceptions
That’s it. Kind of. There are two remaining components but we will get to them in a moment. For now, let’s go through each of the three. POINTS ALLOWED This is the easiest and least important component, but it’s one where my methodology still made some very naïve assumptions for simplicity’s sake. First, where you do you find accurate scoring projections? My answer has always been Vegas (well, really, the answer is large offshore sportsbooks, but “Vegas” sounds sexier). https://imgur.com/a/8eUvzQl The screenshot here is from Pinnacle, widely accepted as the sharpest NFL sportsbook. When figuring out scoring expectations, you can either use team totals directly or derive them from the full-game lines. We’ll be doing the latter with the assumption that a full-game line has a larger max wager, less vigorish, and a sharper line – but they’re almost always going to match up anyway to prevent arbitrage, so use whichever is easier. In this example for Thursday night, the Eagles are favored at home by 2.5 points, and the game total is set at 45. The means the Eagles can expect 23.75 points ((45+2.5)/2) and the Falcons can expect 21.25 points ((45-2.5)/2). A quick check assures us that the results are correct, since 23.75 + 21.25 = 45 and the Eagles expect 2.5 more points than the Falcons. Easy. While these numbers are great for setting baseline expectations, things start to get really tricky in a hurry. We need to know not just how many points to expect, but we need to convert that single point into an actual scoring distribution. Here is where I made that first naïve assumption: while NFL scoring is very much NOT a normal distribution, I assumed that touchdowns and field goals could be tracked close enough to a Poisson distribution. This at least gets us toward scoring ranges that are good enough for what we need. Anybody working at this on their own should look at this as one of the first big improvements they can make. SACKS While points allowed make up a relatively minor component of D/ST scoring – consider, for example, a team that gives up a relatively average 21 points in a game might lead to a D/ST score of +0 or +1 depending on your scoring format – sacks are part of where the money is made. Sacks are important for three major reasons:
They are each +1 point
They are a turnover-rich event
Because they are yardage-negative and result in a loss of a down, they correlate loosely with lower scores
Unfortunately, forecasting sacks can be a little difficult, because they are a function of multiple variables: The strength of the pass rush, the strength of the offensive line, the tendencies of the quarterback, the down and distance, the overall score… so here is where we can make another naïve assumption: average sacks per game by the DL and average sacks allowed per game by the OL can be virtual stand-ins for all of the variables named above. Now of course, they’re not, and this is one more avenue for someone to improve on the methodology going forward. However, given how much variance is present in D/ST scoring just because of the rules themselves, I’m not sure how much better the projections can be by improving here. To get an expected sack total in each game, I took the average sacks per game by the defense, the average sacks per game allowed by the offense, and took a weighted average (giving the home team a slight boost, which may have been incorrect to do). INTERCEPTIONS While sacks are a function of the offense and defense together (along with some in-game details such as score, down, distance, etc.), I took the D/ST component for interceptions to be defined largely by the offense’s quarterback. Another assumption (perhaps less naïve this time): quarterbacks could be expected to converge toward their career interception rates. This worked great in most cases, but in some of the most important cases (rookie quarterbacks or career backup quarterbacks), it fell far short. In these cases, I don’t have a good answer, and I tended to use my best judgmen in the cases where they came up. Sometimes, you can find an interceptions oveunder prop bet on a reputable gambling site and go from there. Sometimes you’ll just have to make something up and hope it’s close enough. Finally, similarly to sacks, I used a weighted combination of the defenses interception rate with the quarterback’s interceptions per game, weighted heavily toward the quarterback. MISSING PIECES We’re done! Right? Wrong. There are two major things missing: D/ST TDs and fumble recoveries. I assumed that fumbles were entirely random, and that every team would expect to recover approximately half of the fumbles they have available, and that every team would fumble at approximately similar rates. I would love to be proven incorrect on this, but I have not yet seen compelling evidence to the contrary. For D/ST TDs, I took a historical conversion rate for fumbles-into-TDs and interceptions-into-TDs and assumed that every team would convert that many of each into touchdowns. Here is another point of improvement to make in the methodology, and one that I have high hopes that someone in the community can make happen. An obvious blind spot to start with: I did not consider punt or kick return TDs at all, and I think there is probably some amount of variance that can be explained by simple variables that we have access to. ASSUMING INDEPENDENT EVENTS… OK, I have revealed quite a few naïve assumptions so far, and for the most part, I think most of them are reasonable, if not justifiable. There is one assumption that I’ve made however that is not, and it is probably the best place to gain an edge on mine (or other) existing models: To convert expected sacks, expected turnovers, and expected points into expected D/ST scores, I assumed independence with all events. Yikes? Yikes. The reason why should be obvious: It was way easier! But consider the two following scenarios:
A team expecting 21 points allows 21 points with 6 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 1 fumble recovery
A team expecting 21 points allows 21 points with 0 sacks and 0 turnovers
If we assume independence of events, the simplified odds of each happening are: p(21 points) * p(6 sacks) * p(2 interceptions) * p(1 fumble recovery) p(21 points) * p(0 sacks) * p(0 turnovers) In reality, these events are not independent, and so the calculations above would be wrong. Using extreme case reasoning to illustrate, a team who gets 25 sacks does not have the same scoring distribution for points allowed as a team who gets 0 sacks. Of all the spots to improve on the methodology I’ve presented so far, this is the one that I think has the most potential to boost the efficacy of the model. I don’t think that’s an easy task, and it’s why I didn’t tackle it myself! COMBINING THE COMPONENTS I’ve alluded to most of this already, but to be explicit:
Convert Vegas point totals into a distribution.
Gather expected sacks, expected interceptions, and expected fumbles, then convert using a Poisson distribution on each (adding in a factor for D/ST TDs).
Assume independence and calculate EV for each team.
2018-SPECIFIC TOPICS I sent out a call on Twitter for questions to answer here since I won’t be getting to anything major in-season. Here is a full list of what was asked, and my answers: “The one thing I’d like to get your opinion on is how high Football Outsiders is on the Browns and Packers DST. They have them ranked 5th and 6th. Is there something they know that nobody else does?” The Browns have something going for them right now that they haven’t had in a long, long time: Tyrod Taylor does not make very many mistakes. He’s probably the best QB they’ve had in a decade or more, and he does not turn the ball over very much. It might seem counter-intuitive to start an answer about their defense by pointing out their offense, but with the way D/ST scoring works, a bad QB can be a huge liability for a D/ST. That being said, I have no idea why they would be ranked in the top 6. Quite honestly, that seems ludicrous. They have some good pieces, but their season-long oveunder is just above 5.5 wins. That is… not good. For a D/ST to be a strong play, it has to be attached to a team that can expect to win, and the Browns just aren’t there yet. They’ve won 1 game in the past 32 tries. I would let somebody else sit on them, and quite frankly, they’ll just sit on the waiver wire in 99% of leagues. The Packers are a much more interesting option. They can expect closer to 10 wins, and they are unlikely to be home underdogs in any of their games, let alone more than 1-2 of them. That is a great start. They aren’t the most talented defense, and they’ve already suffered injuries to starters, but they are good enough to be drafted in all MFL10-style leagues and some 12-team redrafts. I would not go much farther than that. I’d give them something like a top 14 or top 16 score if I had to guess today for the end of the year. What's a quick-and-dirty way to rank streaming DSTs on your own (aka without your columns)? Easy! Look for the following, in approximately the order given:
Good defense favored at home against a bad offense
Good defense favored on the road against a bad offense
Good defense favored at home against a medium offense
Medium defense favored at home against a bad offense
Good defense favored on the road against a medium offense
Medium defense favored on the road against a bad offense
Bad defense favored at home against a bad offense
Good defense as an underdog anywhere against a medium offense
Good defense as an underdog anywhere against a good offense
Bad defense favored at home against a medium offense
In all cases, you can usually assume backup QBs are somewhere between “bad” and “medium” and third-string QBs are “bad.” Avoid teams on the road where possible, but especially avoid underdogs. Look for teams in low-scoring environments where you can expect lots of sacks and turnovers. Full game totals under 40 are low. Totals between 40 and 44 are OK. Anything above 44 starts getting into territory where you need to tread carefully. And remember, a team that’s a heavy favorite can thrive in a higher full-game scoring environment because their own scoring is a larger share of the total. Chase sacks and interceptions before chasing total point totals. If you follow these rough guidelines, you really can’t go too wrong. Will you provide your algorithms and data pipeline process? I think most of this is covered above, but please reach out if anything is unclear. I gathered most data by hand (copy/paste into Excel tables) from ESPN.com and teamrankings.com. This is the first thing I would go back to revise if/when I take this project back up, since I have learned so much more about data collection between when I started this and today. Q: is there anything we can apply or take away based on injuries or performance to the monthly stuff? My blanket assumption was that injuries don’t matter, suspensions don’t matter, and that most NFL players are far closer to replacement-level than we’re able to quantify. This obviously has some important exceptions – peak J.J. Watt, peak Joey Bosa, peak Khalil Mack, most good/great quarterbacks, etc. – but these should be fairly evident as they come up. Further, we get some amount of grounding on our model from the Vegas lines that get published, so we can see how many points each player is worth. The reason why we can assume these things is (in theory) because we are aggregating 11 players’ contributions on 60+ plays in a game, so the effect that any one player has is somewhat minimized, especially when it is a defensive player that may only play 30, 40, 50 snaps in a game. More importantly, to account for each of these missing players would be a monumental effort, and when combined with the fact that I’m unsure that it would even be worth accounting for, I ignored the effect in a vast majority of cases. Will we get a rank for week 1/first few weeks? I like the Ravens, Saints, Packers, Lions, and Jaguars in some order. Beyond them (or mixed in at the back-end of that group) would be the Vikings, Patriots, Chargers, and Titans. The Rams probably belong in there too somewhat. Denver might be worth a look but they could also just be bad. If you were hoping to bank on a D/ST not listed above, you should probably check your waiver wire and rethink where you’re at. Anything not on that list would have to have a very good season-long and week 2 expectation for me to sit through a bad week with them right now. I'd be curious to hear how you discriminate between teams that are closely ranked in your mind. How do you sort out the better option between two teams in similar positions for any given week? I always look at their next week to see if I can use either option for two consecutive weeks and save a waiver claim/FAAB. Sometimes you can find a gem that might cost you a quarter point of expectation in the current week, but they’ll be usable or good for 2-3 consecutive weeks. That’s almost always worth the tiebreaker in my opinion. If not, I’ll side with a home team or the team maybe just flip a coin. If your model can’t determine which is better, there’s really no reason to stress over the decision, and you can more usefully spend your time elsewhere. How do you do your assessment of good teams to target a DST against? I know you’ve got your algorithm but does it factor for changes in OL and skill positions? Most of this should be covered above. You want backup QBs, bad offensive lines, bad quarterbacks, bad receivers, and teams playing on the road. Accounting for personnel changes in season is difficult, and I tried to stay away from it as much as possible. Sometimes we just don’t have data on some of these players, and we certainly don’t have much reliable data on them. I find it’s better to stay away from situations like that entirely. I could be wrong! Q: Which defense that may go undrafted could finish top 12 ? Tough one, because I don’t know what is going undrafted right now! Looking at ADP, the Steelers have an ADP around Def13, and I like their odds of beating that. Kind of a weak answer though, since they don’t have to overperform by much to get top 12. The Packers, Lions, and 49ers are probably each threats to do it, but I would bet against each individually. Perhaps a sneaky answer is that most drafters could stream D/STs weekly and expect a top 8-12 D/ST score by playing matchups. By targeting a D/ST that projects strongly in Week 1, you give yourself the best chance to do both (land the undrafted D/ST that finishes top 12, and end up with a weekly D/ST average in the top 12). Are there any defenses in particular you’d hold for weeks 13-16? (Fantasy playoffs) or is it too early to tell? You got it right here: definitely too early to tell. The time to think about this is usually right around Week 10 or Week 11, when you can be assured that you’re looking at the playoffs and your own worst bye weeks are over. Plus, there’s almost no way to tell right now which ones will be worth holding and which won’t be. And that should do it for 2018. For anybody who would like to start doing their own projections, I strongly recommend exploring the math behind what does/doesn’t work and what does/doesn’t matter. If you find yourself hitting a wall along the way, feel free to reach out, but I do request that you try to make some headway on your own first. :) Beyond that though, I am happy to help almost any way I can. So with that: Fuck ICE, be generous, treat the people around you with the respect they deserve, and kick some ass in 2018. Any questions?
How Accurate Were 538's Point Spreads in the 2018 Season?
538 creates its NFL predictions using an 'Elo" rating system, similar to the one used to rank the skill levels of chess players. Each team is assigned an Elo score, and this number is used to compare teams and calculate the win probabilities and projected point spreads of each game. The full methodology is explained here, but the important take away is that each teams rankings are determined only by home field advantage and performance in previous games. Injuries, roster moves, and other important factors are not accounted for. This is a big disadvantage in comparison to the spreads set by Vegas oddsmakers and NFL analysts who most definitely take those things into account. Despite this, the predictions tend not to be too far off, and 538's win probabilities are still held in high regard by fans, and often cited on Reddit as well as in sports publications.
So how accurate were the predictions after all?
RMSE
538
13.57
Vegas
13.10
Predict Only Ties
14.50
The accuracy of the predictions fall short of the Vegas lines, as would be expected, but not by much. The RMSE (a measure of error, with lower values meaning less error) of 538's predictions this past season was 13.57, and Vegas's was 13.10. For comparison, if you had a model that predicted every single game to end in a tie, the RMSE would have been 14.50.
Was the model biased in any way?
Avg Pt Difference in terms of favorite/underdog
538
-0.93
Vegas
-0.06
Avg Pt Difference in terms of home/away
538
-0.39
Vegas
0.01
538's model includes factors such as home field advantage adjustment and k-factor, which is a measure of how much a game's outcome should adjust the rating of a specific team. Undoubtedly a lot of research has been put into setting these constants in a way that most accurately reflects the NFL, but it is impossible for them to be perfect, and if they are set too high or too low we might expect to see biases emerge in the spreads. 538's model overestimated the performance of the favorite team on average by .93, almost one point, whereas Vegas tended to overestimate the favorite by only .06. 538 overestimated the home team by .39 points whereas Vegas saw very little bias in terms of home field and favored the away team by only .01! The whole distribution of prediction accuracy is visualized here:
Positive values mean that the favored team outperformed the spread, whereas negative values mean the favored team underperformed.
Who selected winners better?
Winners Predicted Correctly
538
158.5
Vegas
171
Out of the 256 games played this season, 538 correctly favored the winning team 155 times. Their model also gave a 'PK' or 0 spread seven times. Assuming that someone trying to predict winners using this model would flip a coin when in this event, they would be expected to get the prediction right 50% or 3.5 times. So we can say that over the course of the season 538 predicted 158.5 correct winners. Compare this to Vegas who predicted the correct winner 171 times.
What were the best and worst predictions by 538?
11 games ended 31 points or more off from 538's spread. These are mainly the big blowouts from the season, except notably the Panther's victory over the Saints where they were expected to be 13 point underdogs.
Home
Away
538 Spread for Home Team
BAL
47
3
BUF
-4.0
DET
17
48
NYJ
-6.0
CHI
48
10
TB
-1.0
DAL
40
7
JAX
-1.0
ARI
10
45
DEN
-3.0
IND
37
5
BUF
+0.5
CIN
14
51
NO
+4.0
NYJ
10
41
BUF
-3.5
NO
48
7
PHI
-7.5
GB
0
31
DET
-4.5
NO
14
33
CAR
-13.0
Conversely, 11 games ended within half a point of 538's spread.
Home
Away
538 Spread for Home Team
MIN
24
16
SF
-8.0
DEN
23
27
KC
+4.5
BUF
13
12
TEN
-0.5
ATL
34
29
TB
-5.0
CIN
37
34
TB
-3.5
LAR
36
31
SEA
-5.5
CHI
24
17
GB
-7.5
BAL
20
12
TB
-8.0
DAL
27
20
TB
-7.5
NE
24
12
BUF
-11.5
SF
9
14
CHI
+5.5
Which teams were favored or unfavored more than others?
As stated earlier, 538's model does not take into account injuries or roster changes. So teams like the Bills that performed well last season were projected to continue that streak into this year and ended up scoring almost 5 less point per game than the model projected, while teams like the Bears that did poorly last year were placed very low in the preseason power rankings and actually ended up scoring 7.5 points per game more than the projections.
What would happen if you bet on the Vegas lines using 538 as a guide? If 538 managed to beat the Vegas oddsmakers for a season, someone using their spreads could stand to make a lot of money. However, at least in this season, that is not how it played out. 538 beat the Vegas spreads 116 times this season, and set spreads exactly equal to Vegas 13 times. If someone betting on those games were to flip a coin when the spreads were set equal, they would be expected to correctly predict 6.5 of them. So we can say that someone using 538 to place bets would have won 122.5 out of 256 bets in the season, less than half. So while 538's model is certainly no oddsbreaking magic bullet, it does a pretty good job despite being completely blind to important factors like team roster.
Here's why idgaf about on-line betting odds for GoT
Edit: according to mooncoin_money there is a payout limit of $200 for this bet on one of the sites. The rest of my post is unnecessary at this point, what insider would give a shit about $200, lol ....... Freefolk has inspired me to put on my detective cap and see if it is logical or likely that insider betting has greatly affected the odds on sites like bovada. Here's some common arguments I've seen in support of insider betting being the cause of specific character shifts, and why i think they are baseless claims:
"Insiders can make so much money off of these betting sites":
No, not really. There are individual wager payout limits like $100,000 at Bovada, and individual player payout limits like $150,000 in a 24 hour period at BetOnline. While those amounts are nothing to sniff at its hard to imagine many insiders willing to lose their career, personal relationships, and risk a lawsuit if they had any type of contract or NDA with production over that low of a payout. To even reach those payout amounts a large wager would have to be put down in the first place. For example: to get a payout of $99,964 (the closest to the 100k limit without going over) when brans odds were at +6600 you would have to place a bet of $1492. It is highly unlikely there was ever an option to place that large of a bet. Entertainment prop bets are a teeny tiny portion of what these online betting sites do. They dont invest the time and money into them that you would need to in order to monitor large bets like that. Oddsshark says the following about prop bets: Most sportsbooks also spend much less time making sure the lines are sharp on props than they do on more traditional lines such as point spreads, moneylines and OVEUNDER totals. Instead, they usually charge extra juice on props, making it easier for them to profit on these types of wagers.. It is particularly hard to find info on entertainment prop bets because they are such an insignificant part of the business, the sites don't waste much effort on explaining them. The most concrete limit on entertainment prop bets I could find is in relation to nfl entertainment prop bets: "Also note that some NFL props come with a smaller maximum bet than usual, especially those dealing with entertainment; a cap of $50 is common with these wagers." If they'll only allow you to bet $50 on a super bowl half-time show wager then why would they allow bets 20x that on Game of Thrones? Just not logical. In the interest of finding out the truth, I contacted Bovada since on-line betting is illegal in my state so I can't place a wager myself and see what the limit is. The entertainment prop bets are so unimportant to Bovada they dont even have information readily available about it to their sports book customer service team, who would be able to break down sports bets for me no problem. So customer service couldnt give me a definitive answer about what the wager limit is for GoT, but they said entertainment bets in general do not reach their game prop bet limits, which according to this table are mostly in the $500-$1000 range. If anyone placed a bet on one of these sites and was shown what the max betting limit was we would all love to know.
"they can make multiple accounts or have friends and family place the bets too":
multiple accounts will likely not pass the sniff test at these sites. They pretty much all use third party companies to verify the identity of customers, definitely use these checks on people placing high wagers, and will absolutely verify info before making a large payout. Someone willing to risk their career for this money would probably read the terms a bit and realize they can't pull off fake accounts. If they are smart and technologically savy enough to have multiple identities that can hold up against dmv records and the like then wtf are doing messing with game of thrones, their professional scammer asses should already be rich. Yes, they can have friends and family place bets as well, but the more people you bring into the loop the more likely you are to get caught. Loose lips sink ships. These additional people would also be taking on the tax burden that goes along with large payouts, which many people might not want to do.
why would so many people be betting on bran if it isn't insider info?:
because people are sheeple. Oddsshark explains betting against the public as a good strategy becase "The idea behind this betting system is that the public can be easily brainwashed by the media and tends to be wrong more often than not, so the more excited and loaded up they are on one side of a game, the more likely it is that the “smart” wager is taking the opposite side and fading them instead." The public is the people piling on bran, the smat money is to bet against them.
other general points of interest:
the odds for things like who dies first doesnt line up with known info, which Excellent_Aerie did a great job of explaining in this thread. Why would an insider(s) not be using info to make money off those categories? There are no co-ruling options, which means you could potentially lose money on a winning bet, as already explained here. When there has been insider knowledge betting in the past betting has been suspended, end of story. This time around it was suspended, investigated, and re-opened. I'm not looking for the links for that, someone else can search for them if need be. The prosecution rests it's case, your honor. All hail King Bullshit
Frog's Offseason primer addendum: Evaluating the current roster
I messed up. This obviously should have been the first part of my offseason series. I meant for these write-ups to be able to bring casual and new fans completely up to speed with the team and it's needs as the offseason progresses, and then failed to break down what we already have before starting the rest of it...I am a dumb. so I'm now going to go through each player and position on the roster, give my judgement about what the position group still needs and what it doesn't. Identify the players who should be in the competition for starting roles and which the team should attempt to upgrade before the season starts. I will include any free agents who I think the team likely to re-sign in the positional breakdowns Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo
Our starter and dreamboat. Jimmy will be returning from his torn ACL. His stretch to end 2017 was stunning. His first few games of 2018, not so much. He still made some crazy good throws and is the unquestioned man to run the offense for the next few years.
CJ Beathard
Potential backup QB. Beathard has one of the best traits a backup QB can ever have. Toughness. Unfortunately he doesn't have a lot more than that going for him. He has started nearly a seasons worth of games over the last two years and really hasn't shown much that gets me excited. His biggest problems are his tendencies to hold onto the ball too long and occasionally being blind to incoming pressure
Nick Mullens
Mullens was a great surprise last season. He turned some heads with his play in pre-season and many were questioning whether he should be the backup over Beathard. He didn't win the job but he proved later on that he should have. Mullens' biggest problems are his lack of arm strength, his size and some trouble reading more complex coverages. He gets the ball out quickly and decisively though and has a very good command of the offense, which obviously is a big plus for a QB. Summary: Not a lot of questions to be answered here. Jimmy G will be the starter. Both Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard will likely be kept for training camp where they will have a "Competition" for the backup QB job, which Mullens will win. The only real question is whether they well carry 3 QBs this year or move on from CJ Beathard. I'm sure someone will ask about the potential to trade Nick Mullens. I don't think the team could get more than a 4th for him (if they're lucky) and he's worth more than that to the team as a backup. Players needed: a camp arm and potential practice squad candidate. Most likely an undrafted free agent, similar to Mullens or last year's camp arm Jack Heneghan Running Backs
Jerrick McKinnon
The 49ers gave McKinnon big money for an RB who hasn't ever really been a feature back. They were betting on his potential. They expected him to be as much a receiver as a running back. He was to be their Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey. McKinnon's route running is exceptional for an RB and he is very capable in blitz pickup as well. Unfortunately we never got to see it on the field. McKinnon tore his ACL in practice just before the season. The good news is that with a full year to rehab he should be back to 100% well before the season starts
Matt Breida
Breida had something of a breakout year, once he was suddenly made the starter just days before the opener. he managed over 1000 yards from scrimmage despite missing two whole games and playing through injuries for pretty much the entire season. Breida should continue to get a lot of work as a runner.
Raheem Mostert (RFA)
Mostert is a player I like a lot. He unfortunately broke his arm rather gruesomely (seriously, don't look up the video) during the 49ers absolute smackdown of the Oakland Raiders. Before that he was the 49ers top special teams player, who I consider one of the top special teams players in the entire league. We expected that from him. What we didn't expect was him to step in at RB, take over the #2 job from Alfred Morris and rush for 7.7 yards per carry. I think he's a no brainer to bring back and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he sticks around this team for years.
Jeff Wilson Jr
Wilson was forced into a prominent role after the injury to Mostert and Breida's nagging problems necessitated calling on him to help take some of the load. Wilson is a tough runner who isn't easily brought down. His balance is probably his best trait. He's very good at keeping his momentum and keeping his feet under him. He had decent hands in the passing game but hasn't really shown an aptitude for route running. His vision is decent, but his speed and agility leave a lot to be desired. I wouldn't rule out Wilson staying with the team but he's going to have to show some serious improvement to make the team want to carry 4 RBs and a fullback.
Matt Dayes
I don't know much about Dayes. The 49ers signed him mid season but he didn't play last year. He had some pretty nice plays for the Browns before he came to SF. If I remember him correctly from college he has some skill as a passcatcher. A longshot to stick around
Kyle Juszczyk (Fullback)
Juice Check is by far the best fullback in the NFL. Nuff said. Summary: RB is a pretty straight forward position at the moment as well. McKinnon and Breida are the 1 and 2. They will get the majority of the carries. A 3rd RB isn't likely to see considerable time on offense unless there is an injury to Jet or Breida. The #3 RB therefore will need to be good at special teams, which is why it's almost a certainty that the team will retain Raheem Mostert, who is an outstanding gunner. Mostert has also shown more upside as a runner than either Wilson or Dayes. I do not think the team will be interested in bringing back Alfred Morris Players Needed: None. At least none that are noteworthy. I expect them to bring in an undrafted free agent for camp, something teams should always do, but I do not expect any draft capital or money to be spent on bringing one in. Tight End
George Kittle
The best TE in the NFL last year. I don't care what All-pro and Pro bowl voters say. Kittle broke the all time receiving record for TEs and in one game had 210 yards in the first half, the most in a half ever by any receiver in NFL history. Kittle is going to be a 49ers fan favorite for a very very long time
Garrett Celek
Celek Time™ didn't come around a lot last year. Celek played through some injuries which could explain part of it but he was pretty much relegated to a blocking only position.
Ross Dwelley
Dwelley wasn't really very noteworthy. He didn't play much. He seems to be an ok TE all around, but nothing special. About what you'd expect a 3rd string TE to be. Summary: I wouldn't be at all surprised the 49ers tried to bring in a TE to add some passcatching ability aside from Kittle at the position. I also wouldn't be surprised if they ignored the position completely and dealt with it next year when Celek leaves in free agency. Players Needed: An Upgrade at TE 2 would be welcome, but isn't strictly necessary at the moment. I expect a late round draft pick or an unheralded free agent will be brought in to add some competition, but I wouldn't expect a major move. Wide Receiver
Marquise Goodwin
Goodwin had a disappointing season after his outstanding 2017. His 2018 season was marred with injuries and by a personal tragedy that led to him missing several games. He never quite got back to the level he was performing in the 2nd half of 2017, possibly because of Jimmy G not being the one throwing to him. Goodwin will need to improve in 2019 if he wants to keep seeing significant play time. Dante Pettis is coming for that starting job.
Trent Taylor
Trent Taylor also had a disappointing 2018. He had back surgery before the season and never fully got back to being himself. He still somehow managed to be incredibly clutch on 3rd downs though. he should be back to normal on the injury front this season and we'll see if he can bring back that spark he gave the offense in 2017. He'll face competition from Richie James for the starting slot receiver job.
Kendrick Bourne
Bourne came to the team as an undrafted free agent who played his college career in Cooper Kupp's shadow. Over his two years here he has steadily improved in all facets of the game. Very promising player if his improvement continues. As of right now he's the favorite to fill Pierre Garcon's role in the offense. That very much depends on how the draft and free agency play out.
Dante Pettis
Pettis had ups and downs as a rookie, but overall the future looks very bright. His 5 tds led the wide receivers despite missing several games to injury. Pettis' route running is exceptional for such a young player and he should be depended on more in his sophomore year. Very real chance to be a starter this season
Richie James
James didn't do much as a receiver last year, but he earned his place with his kick returning. He was the first 49er to return a kickoff for a touchdown in what feels like forever. he should be considered the favorite to return as the 49ers kick returner and competition for the slot receiver job
Steven Dunbar
Jordan Smallwood Both Dunbar and Smallwood are pretty much unknowns to 49ers fans. Both bigger bodied WRs compared to the rest of the 49ers corps. Both spent time on the teams practice squad. Will be around for camp at least to see if they can earn a roster spot
Summary: WR is kind of a mess right now. Garcon is gone after disappointing at the start of the season then being put on IR. Goodwin wasn't able to return to his 2017 form. Pettis is promising but also dealt with injuries. Bourne is a good player but not necessarily someone you want to rely on as a starter yet. Between Taylor and James the 49ers got very little production from the slot. the 49ers are really hoping for a resurgence from Goodwin and Taylor and that Bourne and Pettis continue to improve. Otherwise things look bleak. Players Needed: A starting Z receiver. Pierre Garcon's departure (and poor play/injuries before his departure) have left the 49ers with a hole at one of the starting spots. They will make a move for a starter, whether thats an early draft pick or a free agent or both. There is also the potential for a major trade, but you all already know that. Offensive Tackle
Staley is the best. He already confirmed he's returning for 2019 so theres no need to try to immediately find a replacement
Mike McGlinchey
McGlinchey proved me wrong. I really didn't like that pick, as I'm a big fan of Trent Brown, but McGlinchey was undoubtedly an upgrade in the run game. His pass protection was much better than I expected as well. he looks like our long term solution at RT.
Shon Coleman
The 49ers traded a 7th round pick to get Coleman from the Browns mid season. The kept him on the roster inactive for the rest of the year. I believe the intention was to have him learn the system and come into next year as the team's swing tackle. The team has already released their former swing tackle Garry Gilliam. Summary: Our starters are firmly locked in with Staley and McGlinchey. there is some potential to add some competition for the swing tackle job if they don't like what they've seen from Coleman, but overall I think the main roles at the position are probably set. Players Needed: Joe Staley is playing out the rest of his career on a year by year basis, so until he decides to retire I do not expect any major moves for a tackle. Spending a high draft choice or signing a big name free agent is effectively telling Staley to go, which I don't think anyone would think is a good idea. There is potential for a day 3 pick in the draft at OT to compete with Coleman and be a developmental player. The team will also need several camp bodies, so expect many undrafted free agent signings. Interior Offensive Line
OG Laken Tomlinson
Tomlinson has come a long way in his 2 seasons with the 49ers. He's developed into a decent starter after being considered a bust in his stint with the Lions. He should be the starting LG again next season. He tore his MCL in the final game of the season, so there is some question to whether he'll be healthy in time
C Weston Richburg
Richburg was the 49ers big money free agent last season and didn't quite live up to it. He was very good in the run game but his pass protection was a liability. He was playing though an injury for 3/4 of the season, so that may explain it. He had surgery in the offseason and is expected to miss the entire offseason program, but be ready for the season. his recovery is something to watch.
OG Mike Person (FA)
Person was a surprise at RG. He outplayed any of his previous seasons. I think it very likely the 49ers re-sign him to keep some consistency on the line.
OG Joshua Garnett
Garnett is an odd case. He had a terrible rookie showing in 2016. In 2017 he looked seriously improved, before he got hurt and missed the entire season. in 2018 he had some nagging injuries in camp which took him out of the competition for the RG job. he did play a bit this season though and looked pretty good when he did. In the last week of the season he entered for the injured Laken Tomlinson and looked great against Aaron Donald. He should be kept and allowed to compete for a starting job. At worst he's a high quality backup.
C/OG Erik Magnuson
Magnuson has had to play everywhere for the 49ers but they see him mostly as the backup C. He's a good player whose versatility is valuable for a backup lineman. He'll compete for a roster spot.
OG Najee Toran
Toran is a practice squad level player. He should be with the team through camp and the preseason but will most likely end up cut or back on the PS. Summary:Overall I think it's a decent group. Richburg is locked in at C and needs to improve. If Laken can get healthy he's an average level starter. Garnett should keep his job as a backup until he hits free agency in 2020. The only real question is whether Person returns, and if not, who replaces him. Players Needed: A Starting RG, whether it's the return of Person or a Free agent, this has to be dealt with. I don't expect them to handle this via the draft, but it's possible. Some competition for backup C and backup G would be nice, given the injuries to starters there. Strong Side DE (Big End)
Arik Armstead
Armstead gets an undeserved bad rep because he's not much of a passrusher. The good news is he plays a position that values run defense above everything. Armstead is outstanding in that regard. One of the best run stopping DEs in the entire league. His 9m price tag this season is steep, but the 49ers don't need space so they don't have to worry about cutting good players for cap. Armstead has significantly improved as time has gone on in the NFL and may even be in line for an extension soon. Very solid player.
Julian Taylor
Taylor looked outstanding in training camp and the preseason. He's very raw but he has all the tools to be a very good player. His development should be interesting to see.
Kentavius Street
Street was drafted shortly after he tore his ACL in pre-draft workouts. He seems to fit the mold of a 5t in our defense so I put him in this category, but there is some question where the team intends him to play. He mentioned that he was playing inside during his brief window to practice towards the end of the season. He should come into camp fully healthy and ready to compete for a spot. He was highly thought of before he tore his ACL Summary:I don't expect much change here. Armstead was fantastic on run downs and at least very difficult to deal with one on one in passing situations. He should be starting again and play most of the snaps. Taylor is interesting and should be the main backup to Armstead. If he improves from last year he could be an eventual starter at the spot shout the 49ers opt not to extend Armstead. Needed Players: None Defensive Tackle
DeForest Buckner
Buckner is an absolute beast of a man. It's between him and Kittle for who is the best player on the entire roster. the only question with Buckner is when we choose to extend him
DJ Jones (NT)
Jones supplanted the veteran Earl Mitchell at NT by the end of the season. Very good find by the scouting department in the 6th round. He's locked in as the starting nose this year and we shouldn't see any drop off from the release of Mitchell
Solomon Thomas
Thomas' Sophomore year is difficult to really analyze. He dealt with some serious stuff in his personal life that undoubtedly slowed his development. The DL coach and DC also seemed intent on continuing to try to play him as a defensive end despite his obvious shortcomings at the position. By the end of the season however he was playing more and more DT and becoming much more effective. I expect the switch to DT to be full time this season. He may get reduced playing time because of it but he will be able to focus on mastering his strenghts and we'll really see what he's capable of.
Sheldon Day
Sheldon Day was a draft crush of mine when we ran a 3-4 and had no use for a 3t, so I was thrilled when the 49ers claimed him off waivers from Jacksonville. Day is a very capable backup DT who should be a part of the rotation next season.
Kapron Lewis-Moore (NT)
I don't know anything whatsoever about this dude but he's 6'4 and 315 lbs so I assume he plays nose tackle, which makes sense because with Mitchell gone they need some options to backup Jones. Summary: I think we've got a very solid DT group. DeFo is obviously elite. Thomas should be next to him on passing downs. Day will rotate in between those two spots. Jones is a very capable nose tackle who should see a lot of time on run downs. Players Needed: We could use some development players, late round or undrafted guys who have the physical tools but not the coaching, similar to DJ Jones for example, to try to find some diamonds in the rough who can turn into useful players in the future. Weak Side DE (LEO)
Cassius Marsh
Marsh is a useful rotational speed rusher. He can't really play every down, as he's not great against the run, but he'll get a handful of sacks as part of a healthy rotation.
Ronald Blair III
I put Blair here because the position is thin, but really his title is just DL. He can play every spot on the line except maybe NT. With the players we currently have on the roster I'd consider him our starter at the LEO because he's better against the run than Marsh. Useful player because of his versatility. Keeps getting better also.
Ryan Delaire
Since I live in Charlotte I'm also a Panthers fan in addition to the 49ers. Delaire spent two years on the team and I remember almost nothing about him, which doesn't really fill you with confidence. He has ideal size for the LEO spot but he's never shown himself to be particularly effective, having only 3.5 sacks in 17 career games.
Dekoda Watson
Watson could also be placed with the Linebackers but since they tried to get him rushing the passer more last year I put him in this group. He's not much of a linebacker or DE in truth. He's a core special teamer however and is considered a good leader. He will likely be kept around again. Summary: Yikes. It's looking bleak fellas. The best player we have at this position is Blair and he's not even really a LEO. Thomas has been playing here, poorly, for the past two seasons. This is the biggest need by far on the team. Players Needed: A starter. Desperately. Luckily this is the best year to need an edge rusher that I can remember. there are many good players set to hit free agency and at least a couple actually will. The draft is absolutely loaded in the first round with players who would start here day one. I would prefer to add two players at this position. A 1st round rookie and a vet. It wouldn't be redundant either since on obvious passing downs Armstead will come off the field pretty often to be replaced by someone from this group. I don't think most of the big name edge rushers are likely to actually make it to free agency but there are quite a few who would be huge upgrades to our depth. This is the top priority for this offseason Linebacker
Fred Warner
Warner had a very solid rookie season. He seems firmly installed as the starting Mike LB. The game clearly still needs to slow down for him some but that comes with experience.
Malcolm Smith
Smith has been a disappointment. They signed him to good money and he hasn't really earned it. He did an ok job when he was healthy last year playing the SAM linebacker, but thats not an important position in this defense. He has the potential to be a cap casualty, but with the lack of quality linebackers the team has right now I don't expect that to happen without some upgrades happening first.
Elijah Lee (ERFA)
Elijah Lee is yet another draft crush of mine that the 49ers picked up from another team. I thought he did a pretty decent job at Will LB last season. He's the favorite to start there again this season. He's a player that can be upgraded, but doesn't necessarily have to. He is an exclusive rights free agent but is a no brainer to bring back
Mark Nzeocha (FA)
Nzeocha is a free agent but he won't cost hardly anything and will likely be brought back. He was the starting SAM linebacker for a lot of the season. he didn't make a lot of noticeable mistakes, but he didn't really distinguish himself either. Good guy to have around for competition's sake. Core special teams player as well.
Brock Coyle
I didn't think I'd ever say it, but I missed Brock Coyle last season. We could have used a solid backup LB many times while he was on IR. He should be kept and be our top backup again.
Pita Taumoepenu
Pita T could have gone in with the LEOs as hes more of a passrusher, but the SAM is supposed to also have some passrush responsibilities. I keep hearing about how the team are high on this guy but with how often the team has needed help both at SAM and LEO this past season they didn't turn to him once. That does not bode well for his future.
James Onwualu
Not much to say here. He only played a handful of snaps for us last year so it's hard to judge. Should be competing for a depth role. Summary: Warner is a stud. Everyone else? Meh. I like Elijah Lee and wouldn't be too broken up if he's our Will next year but he could definitely be upgraded. The SAM spot is a bit puzzling as well. It doesn't see the field often, so it's not a huge concern, but Malcolm Smith may be cut and then we're left with only a ST player with any real game experience to fill the spot. Players Needed: At the very least they need to find some depth at WILL LB, whether thats via a new starter at Will or Mike, with Warner moving to Will in the latter scenario or just by bringing in some competition for the backup jobs. The SAM is hard to pin down. they don't play often and despite the defensive coaches saying it's a passrushing role, it seems they mostly use it as a standard SLB. Whether thats design or necessity is the question. I could see them making a play for a starter here but not committing major resources, since the position is so rarely used. Cornerback
Richard Sherman
Sherman is obviously still Sherman. QBs all year routinely avoided challenging him at all. He can still lock down a side of the field
Ahkello Witherspoon
Poor Ahkello. He had a rough start to the season with QBs targeting him over and over. I don't think he gets enough credit for how well he rallied though. Once he returned to playing after being benched he looked like his 2017 self again. I haven't given up on Witherspoon as a starter.
Tarvarius Moore
I thought Moore played very well when given the chance. He's clearly still learning the position but the early returns are positive
K'wuan Williams
K'wuan is an excellent nickel CB. He'll be the favorite to start there again this coming season.
DJ Reed
Reed has a chance to win the start from Williams at nickel CB, but it's a tall order. Reed's versatility and excellent play for a rookie at CB have made him a very promising young piece in the defense
Emmanuel Moseley
Moseley Hasn't shown much but he does have ideal size and might have a shot at making the team as a backup CB. Summary: CB opposite Sherman appeared to be a disaster, but it's not so bad once you dig a little deeper. Both Witherspoon and Moore played well down the stretch. The biggest liability was Mabin and he's a FA. I think the best way to improve the DB play is with a better passrush, rather than an upgrade to the CB position. A lot of the problem with the coverage was that teams knew they had time to throw and were playing inexperienced DBs. They could just overload that side of the field and theres nothing the niners could do to stop it. When manned up both Witherspoon and Moore were average or higher. If we can get them more man coverage next season I don't think an overhaul of the position will be necessary Players Needed: More depth at outside CB. I would probably bring in someone to compete with Witherspoon and Moore for the starting CB job, rather than someone who will just take it outright. I haven't given up on either of those guys. I would also prefer a veteran for this job. There are enough developing DBs on the team already. Safety
Jaquiski Tartt (SS)
Tartt has had a hard time staying healthy and in 2018 wasn't very good even when he was. He may be able to keep his starting job this season but he's on thin ice. Better play from the defense around him could cover up some of his deficiencies though.
Marcell Harris (SS)
I thought Harris played well down the stretch. I'm not gonna count out him taking the start from Tartt. He has the makings of a good player. Just needs to be more sound in his assignments
Terrell Williams Jr (SS)
I don't know much about Williams. should compete for a depth role. Seems to be able to play both Free and Strong Safety, which is a plus.
Godwin Igwebuike
I don't know much about him. He seems to be a SS. probably just a camp body
Adrian Colbert (FS)
Colbert was bad at the start of the season. His play last season left him the clear starter at FS but he just couldn't follow it up. I think the starting job was a bit too much for him too fast. He still has the potential to be a very good player.
Tyree Robinson (FS)
Robinson initially made the Cowboys 53 man roster but was waived after week 2. Should compete for a depth role Summary: Neither starting job is set. I could see improvements for either one being brought in. Free safety seems to be the bigger concern with both depth and the starting position needing an upgrade. The constant injuries, turnover and poor play from the safeties last season was right up there with edge pressure as the biggest problem with the defense. the team needs to get some consistency back there Needed Players:A starting FS is high on the shopping list. Colbert needs to sit and learn or maybe convert to SS. A vet would be preferable for this position, so Colbert has someone to learn from, but a rookie is also acceptable. SS could use an upgrade as well, but I don't think it's super high on the priority list. They'd be fine with Tartt/Harris for a year. If the position still seems to be a problem they can reassess then. Special Teams
K Robbie Gould (FA)
Re-sign or Franchise him. simple as that. Good kickers are very hard to find these days. Don't mess around. Keep him. He's one of the best in the game.
P Bradley Pinion (FA)
Pinion isn't the best punter but he's decent. I'd be fine with either bringing him back or replacing him.
LS Kyle Nelson
Nelson is suspended for PEDs for the first few games of next season. While he's good at coverage on punts you just can't put up with any BS from a longsnapper. He'll be released
LS Colin Holba
He came in after Nelson's suspension and didn't mess up at all. Thats all I need to see. He'll be our LS next season Summary: obviously we need a kicker and punter with ours both being Free agents. one or either could be brought back. the LS thing is pretty easy to settle. keep the guy who didn't get suspended. Players Needed:Robbie Gould and a punter, Pinion or someone else. Overall I think the roster is in a decent place. We only need a few key starters (Edge, Wr, FS maybe WILL LB) and then everything else is upgrading the depth. Getting the team fully healthy will make a huge difference. Hopefully the changes to the training and medical staffs will help keep everyone healthy this time.
[OC] [Serious] The NFC will be a bloodbath next year.
So obviously the NFC was nuts this year, and no one can predict FA, the draft, injuries in camp or to star players next year, but looking ahead to next season, the NFC could be brutal from top to bottom. I'll run through the divisions and then try to explain myself more at the end. NFC East Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl champs, no obvious dents in their roster. They could use some depth at a few positions, but they don't have any glaring weaknesses. The big question is when MVP candidate Carson Wentz will be back (and how well he will play). The Eagles could potentially recoup some of their missing Day 2 picks by dealing Big Dick Nick Foles, but they had better make sure Wentz would be ready for week 1. Everyone should expect Philly to contend next season. New York Giants Even as one of the "worst" teams in the conference, they aren't too far off. A brutal season, no way around that. But they obviously showed they have the talent to compete in 2016, but the wheels fell off the bus in 2017. I'm not sure how much of that lands on McAdoo, but I'm going to assume a lot of it. He completely lost the locker room, and Shurmur should be better in that regard (although a monkey with a play sheet ought to be an upgrade over McAdoo, assuming the monkey didn't grease his hair back). I like the hire of GM Dave Gettleman, who should do a decent job of cleansing the roster. This draft marks a big fork for the franchise, as they could pivot to the future with a QB, or try to fill (much needed) holes at RB and OL. Be on the lookout for the Giants to make a run at Andrew Norwell. The Giants still have a ton of talent on this team, on both sides of the ball. In either direction the franchise goes, At a minimum, I'd expect the Giants to at least be much more competitive than last year. Dallas Cowboys Better get your tickets now for the Ezekiel Elliot revenge tour 2018. He will be well rested and pissed. There are differing opinions on whether Dak can carry the team, but having Zeke in the backfield ought to make it a bit easier on him. The Cowboys need options for Dak outside of Elliot though. Dez and (especially) Witten are not the players they once were. The team also needs better interior line play and could look for some secondary help in the draft. Regardless, Sean Lee (if healthy) is a stud. Zeke is a stud. The O-Line is full of studs. Lest we forget, the Cowboys were good in 2016. Having everyone back and healthy should allow Dallas to push the Eagles in the NFC East and be firmly in the Wild Card hunt. If not, Jason Garrett will probably be looking for a new job. Washington Redskins Injuries, injuries, injuries. As a Chargers fan, welcome to the club. Holy hell were the Redskins decimated by injuries last year. Injuries happen to everyone, but Cousins must've thought he was in a huddle with the JV squad at points. Speaking of which, people have differing opinions of him around the league. I almost can't fault his play this year given that he lost a bunch of weapons during the offseason and then a bunch (and some linemen) during the season. I don't think the needle moves much with Smith at the helm. They almost have to healthier next year, but Smith might be due for some regression after last year. He won't have Hunt, Hill, and Kelce anymore. I think Smith is good enough to make the Redskins a tough out, but I don't see them competing with Dallas or Philly. They have some money and a decent draft spot to shore up their front 7, but I just picture them as a tough 8-8ish team next season. NFC South Carolina Panthers Who knows with Carolina. In the past 6 years, they've alternated between being above .500 and below .500. Cam's season last year seemed to be a microcosm of Carolina as a whole. Cam was wildly inconsistent, sometimes flashing his MVP form and other times, not so much. McCaffrey is undoubtedly a weapon for them, but who else is? Greg Olsen has big play ability, but Carolina has been in search of true weapons at WR for a while now. They're also at risk of losing star OG Andrew Norwell. I'm thinking shakeups on the coaching staff light a fire under some of the players (looking at you, Shula). If Luke can stay healthy, the defense should be fine, although they need a replacement for an aging legend in Peppers. I expect Carolina to buck their roller coaster trend and be in the playoff hunt next year. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Someday, the Bucs will put it together. They have the weapons on offense with Evans, Howard, D-Jax, and Winston. Doug Martin is gone, and Tampa needs to find an answer at RB. Winston has to step it up next year. The team fired Lovie Smith to keep Koetter to mentor Winston, but Winston has been slightly disappointing. But I don't think offense is necessarily the problem. Their largest issue is pass rush. Tampa was dead last in sacks wiht only 22 on the entire year. They were one of only 3 NFC teams in the bottom 12 of the league (NYG and SF as well). If Indy doesn't get Chubb, it's possible he falls to them at No. 7, but outside of him, there just aren't that many solid pass rush prospects in this draft. If they can add pass rush and put the pieces together on offense, they will add to an already super dangerous NFC South. Atlanta Falcons Atlanta still has an extremely talented roster with few holes. The offense still has Matty Ice, along with outstanding 1-2 combos at WR (Jones-Sanu) and RB (Freeman-Coleman). This may be the last year of that RB duo, as Coleman could look to be No. 1 somewhere else. Extracting the talent from this offense falls on Sark...and who knows how that'll go. 2017 felt like we were all just waiting for the offense to pop, and yet it never really did. I expect a bounce back due to continuity. I'd put my money on Poe leaving this offseason in search of long-term money, but Atlanta will still have a talented and quick defense. I trust Dan Quinn to keep the defense going strong. Atlanta has minor issues to figure out, but they too will be firmly in the playoff hunt. New Orleans Don't let Marcus Williams' whiff on the Minneapolis Miracle confuse you, he played great as a rookie, and was part of an outstanding rookie class. Brees ain't going nowhere, and neither are any of his weapons. Great OL play and the emergence of Michael Thomas and the RB duo of Ingram-Kamara have the Saints looking dangerous. The Saints also aren't a pushover on defense anymore. They were 9th in sacks, 6th in FF, and 3rd in INTs. Getting Brees' contract sorted out and adding to last year's outstanding crop of young players are their only huge priorities. They'd like more out of the TE position, I'm sure, but this is a very good roster that will be in the Super Bowl mix next year. NFC North Green Bay Packers Losing Rodgers for the bulk of the season was huge. Top to bottom, GB doesn't have an outstanding roster, but Rodgers is so fucking good that he masks a lot of that. They should have a healthy mix at RB, and Adams has emerged as a legit #1 WR (at least, imo). A healthier OL will do wonders for that offense. Jordy and Cobb are toss-ups, but having Rodgers back will restore some stock in them too. The defense is interesting. They weren't really even middle of the pack, but having a sputtering offense puts a lot of pressure on a defense. They could look to pair another DB with Kevin King, or could find an heir apparent to Clay Matthews. New GM Brian Gutekunst has some work to do with the roster...but c'mon guys. It's Aaron-fucking-Rodgers. Does anyone expect them to not be in the mix next year? Chicago Bears Da Bears will be one of the worst teams in the NFC next year. But they were this year and still showed some flashes. The Bears have more talent than people realize. Jordon Howard is a top 10 back in the NFL that has had to work with a combination of Hoyer, Glennon, Matt Barkley, Cutler, and a rookie Trubisky. Having any sort of passing game will open up the field for him. Staying at RB, Tarik Cohen is a spark plug that gives the Bears a much needed jolt. The OL isn't the absolute worst, but the WR corp is probably. Kevin White might actually be a ghost, so look for the Bears to add Trubisky some talent there. On Trubisky...I don't know. I think he will be legit. And Fox wasn't doing him too many favors with play calling. But the weapons on offense were hot garbage and he still showed some flashes. Having more weapons and with Nagy whispering "RPO" in his ear, I think the 10Gawd will surprise some people. Eddie Jackson and Leonard Floyd are legit ballers on that defense. Like the rest of the roster, there needs to be some more talent to fill out the rest, but if the Bears are the worst team in the NFC next season, that's a good sign for how strong the NFC is. Detroit Lions Stafford has proven that he can carry the offense with no running game, but Detroit has to find something at RB. Teams straight-up don't respect a rushing attack that hasn't produced a 100 yard rusher since Reggie Bush (!!) in 2013 (!!). Marvin Jones is a revelation, and Golden Tate pairs nicely with Stafford. If Eric Ebron can continue his strong finish to 2017, he could finally live up to his draft position and make the Lions' passing attack truly dangerous. Much has been made about the Lions' pass rush, but they were respectable in that regard. They could certainly use a piece there, but they might also look to add a LB or DB. They were a top 3 defense in takeaways, and while that might regress, I don't think it will significantly so. I think Patricia will light a fire under Detroit's asses and they'll be a strong contender for one of the wild card spots. Minnesota Vikings The O-Line took a huuuuge step forward, and could use some depth. Dalvin Cook will come back and add a spark to an offense that already features weapons in Diggs, Thielen, and Rudolph. Zimmer is a great coach, and that defense is...well we all know how fucking good the defense is, This discussion starts and ends with the QB situation. I don't think I can remember such a weird QB situation in recent memory. Keenum was awesome all year, but is one year of great play enough to warrant a long term deal? Will he go elsewhere if someone does offer him one? And what about Teddy? He was making steps in his first two seasons and everyone expected him to make a step forward in year 3, but he damn near lost his leg instead. It's nothing short of a miracle that he saw game action this year, and I think we're all rooting for him in the future (right?). But if you're fresh off a NFC championship appearance and looking to capitalize on your window, can you bet the farm on a guy who has seen a handful of snaps in the last two years? And what about Cousins? Who knows at this point. I'm interested to see what they do at QB, but regardless, we should all expect the Vikings to be in the hunt come December. NFC West Holy bloodbath, Batman! I'll admit I'm not super knowledgeable about the NFC West though. San Fransisco 49ers So uhhhhhhh Jimmy G and a shit load of cap space right? Right. Props to GM John Lynch, who I was skeptical of when they hired him. Snagging Jimmy G (who I think, despite only 7 games, is a legit franchise QB) was amazing. The 49ers have a lot of holes on the roster, but they have a ton of cap space and a QB that everyone will want to play with. They'lll be a strong player for someone like Landry if he gets traded, and they'll look to add pieces on defense too. Expect them to continue their hot finish to 2017 (although maybe not that hot). LA Rams Goff took a major step forward with HC Sean McVay running this show. Gurley and Goff form an amazing battery in the backfield, and the Rams have some weapons at WR. They need to figure out what they're going to do with Sammy Watkins though. He's going to command a good amount of money for someone that was their #3ish WR. I don't think they ought to slap him with the franchise tag either. The line play was much better and Andrew Whitworth was a huge addition. I am curious though, how long his high level will sustain itself, given that he'll be 37 years old by next season's end. On defense, Wade Phillips turned the unit into a top 5 team in terms of takeaways. Grabbing Marcus Peters in a trade with KC shored up a question mark at DB, and it will likely mean the team will likely move on from Trumaine Johnson. The line play was outstaning, led by Aaron Donald. They could use depth at LB, but this is another team without too many glaring needs. Arizona Cardinals This a team in flux, no doubt. Carson Palmer is gone, but his play had been tailing off for a while now. QB is a need that must be addressed, but they sit outside the top 10. With David Johnson returning (cannot understate what an addition that will be, just to have him back), and Fitz apparently willing to play until he's 85 to get a ring, look for the Cards to go for a veteran (Keenum, perhaps?). They have a weakness at the WR2-3 range, but that can be addressed in FA/draft. Depth along both lines is never a bad idea. Chandler Jones is a sack artist, and Patrick Patterson is one of the best corners in the game. MLB Bucannon is solid, but the rest of the LB corps could use some work. If Baker can build on his rookie season and Mathieu can return to form, the secondary could be in good shape. New HC Steve Wilks likes to run zone, so the Cards might be looking to find some pieces that fit his style of play. Seattle Seahawks Oh how the turntables... In what used to be a putrid NFC West, the Seahawks reigned supreme (although Jeff Fischer proved to be their kryptonite). Now the NFC West is looking like it'll be one of best in football, and the Seahawks are in the midst of an identity crisis The LOB is old and aching. Richard Sherman is coming back from an Achilles tear, which is absolutely brutal for any athlete. Earl Thomas voiced his desire to play elsewhere, and Kam Chancellor suffered a tough neck injury. The OL has always been a problem, and it doesn't seem to be getting that much better, even with the addition of Duane Brown. Seattle cycled through RB's, and the hope is that Chris Carson can be their man. This team is Russell Wilson's now though, no doubt about that. I'm not sure Seattle can ground and pound teams like they used to. Will Seattle just try to out gun teams like the Houston-Seattle Week 8 game? The defense is still good, but I don't know Wilson and the defense will be enough to cover up growing holes on the roster. They'll still be a good team, and if healthy, in the playoff mix. But the NFC West is no longer a cake walk for Seattle. WRAP UP The NFC is going to be tough from top to bottom. The way I see it, Playoff Mix: PHI, DAL, CAR, ATL, NO, MIN, GB, DET, and LA. Right there is 9 already. Maybes: WAS, SF, SEA, AZ, TB? NYG? I feel like the only team I can definitively, 100% say won't be a playoff team is Chicago, and I still expect them to take a huge leap forward. You never know how FA, the draft, and injuries will shake out, but every division in the NFC is going to be a bloodbath. I hope you guys enjoyed! It's not anything ground-breaking, but I thought it would be a decent piece that would provide some offseason discussion. Feel free to tell me my ideas suck ass, and I'm sure I forgot about many, many things.
In a 1920 game against the Rock Island Independents, Decatur Staleys (Bears) center George Trafton injured four players and was chased out of the city by angry fans. This sparked a feud between a Rock Island sportswriter and an Iowa newspaper.
What is the dirtiest NFL game you've ever seen? How many incidents did it feature? How many of them saw repeat offenders? Regardless of the answer, it's probably not as chaotic as what happened one November day in 1920. On November 7, 1920, the Decatur Staleys (now Chicago Bears) visited Rock Island to take on the Independents. The Staleys' center George Trafton, wearing lucky #13, had himself a fairly eventful day. Not just game, but day. Considered one of the NFL's meanest players of his time, Trafton was involved in numerous incidents that took out Rock Island players, resulting in him having to get out of the city with his life on the line. Think that sounds wild? Well, you can count on the media to make things even crazier as two newspapers eventually battled it out in their articles over the matter. In fact, their beef is probably funnier than the original story that sparked it since it takes up more than half this writeup. Trafton was a very interesting man. So interesting, in fact, that just giving a summary of his career in this post is not enough, so expect a more fleshed-out bio on him in the future. For now, I'll just give the following rundown: 1964 Pro Football Hall of Famer, the first center to snap the ball with one hand, and perhaps the nastiest player of the era. In fact, his reputation was probably already set just months into the NFL's first season of existence.
Game Day
November 7, 1920 in Douglas Park. The 5–0 Staleys went to Rock Island, Illinois for their second-ever game against the 5–1 Independents. The two teams had met earlier in the year, with Decatur winning 7–0.[1] The Independents entered the game without team captain Rube Ursella, fullback Arnie Wyman, and tackle Walt Buland due to injuries.[2] Rock Island won the coin toss and received. With Wyman out, backup Fred Chicken and quarterback Sid Nichols tried to penetrate the Decatur lines, but neither could not get any offensive momentum going. For the Staleys, Dutch Sternaman and Jimmy Conzelman led the way, yet also couldn't score. On one play, Sternaman broke through for a first down before Chicken pushed him out of bounds; Nichols injured his left knee on the play and was replaced by Ursella.[2] In a 1985 article for The Coffin Corner, Pro Football Hall of Fame executive Don Smith wrote Trafton had received word of the Independents assigning a player to try to take him out (like a goon in hockey). Said player was eliminated early in the game. While the player's identity was never specified, it would line up with the time of Nichols' injury and the ensuing events.[3]The Rock Island Argus' Bruce Copeland also described Nichols as being "marked, to all intents and purposes."[2] Since Nichols was only 5'7" and weighed just 177 pounds, while Trafton stood at 6'2" and 230 pounds, having him as your goon was probably not a good idea in the first place. Shortly after the injury, Rock Island punted to begin the second quarter. Sternaman recorded a five-yard run before play was stopped again for another hurt Independent; this time, Hal Gunderson was down. According to Copeland, after the whistle blew, Trafton swooped in and his knee slammed into Gunderson's left eye.[2] The Professional Football Researchers Association's description of the incident elaborated it occurred as the players were piled up, which suggested it was more incidental than intentional, but either way, it nearly took Gunderson's head off and forced him to have multiple stitches under his eye.[4] Umpire John "Stub" Barron attempted to eject Trafton for the injury, but referee Williams decided against it and ruled it was accidental. Had the penalty stood, in addition to Trafton's ejection, it would have resulted in the yards becoming half the distance to the goal. Ursella and teammate Bob Marshall protested the case, causing an eight-minute delay in the game. After a conversation with coach/captain George Halas, Williams decided to issue a "Running into opponents" penalty of ten yards. Gunderson was eventually carried off the field and replaced by Freeman Fitzgerald, while Charlie Mockmore took over Fitzgerald's slot at guard.[5] With Mockmore blocking, Chicken continued to push through on the ground. On one play, Mockmore knocked Trafton aside and hurt Staleys player Jerry Jones, forcing Decatur to call a timeout.[5] A few plays later, Chicken became the next Rock Island player to suffer an injury. In a 1967 journal entry for the Chicago Tribune, Halas described the incident as follows: Trafton was chasing down Chicken and clobbered him, sending him out of bounds and into a wooden fence along the sideline, breaking his leg in the impact.[6] He was helped off the field to applause from the stands.[5] At this point, Trafton had injured three players, though The Davenport Democrat and Leader pointed out he was also involved in Okie Smith's third quarter knee injury, making it four victims.[7] Needless to say, the Rock Island crowd was not going to be happy with him. As for the game itself, neither team could score as it ended with a 0–0 tie. In other news, part of the stadium's bleachers collapsed during the game. Unlike the players on the field, no one was harmed.[8]
Escape from the City
Put yourself in the shoes of a Rock Island fan. Your team was involved in a tie, particularly a scoreless tie, and one of the other team's players injured three, if not four of your guys. You would probably be pissed, and Independents fans that day definitely were. As the fourth quarter progressed, Trafton noticed the spectators were becoming more rabid, hurling insults at him. He consulted Halas about the situation, who told him that when the game ended, he was to report to the bench.[6] The center obeyed, running to the bench and meeting up with trainer Andy Lotshaw when the game came to a close. Lotshaw gave him a sweatshirt and told him to wear it over his jersey to hide his number. Trafton also grabbed a milk bottle, which was being used as the team's water jug, as a self-defensive measure. Since the team took taxis to and from the game, one was already waiting for him.[6] Spotting the exit, Trafton made a dash for it and spotted the cab. He hopped in the back seat and joined some of his teammates, but the driver could not get away before rocks and soda bottles suddenly smashed through the windows and pelted them, forcing Trafton to escape by another means: on foot. Everyone else in the car was unharmed.[6] He scrambled out of the taxi and started running. After about 200 yards, a blue Mercer pulled up to him; the driver, who had not seen the game, asked him where he was going. Trafton responded Davenport, Iowa and that he was "in a heluva hurry!"[6] The driver told him to get in before driving off.
Battle of the Newspapers
The Sportscope Speaks Out
Today, sportswriters are expected to maintain a semblance of professionalism regardless of whether they are writing game recaps or offering their opinions. Well, unless you're Bruce Copeland. He did not hold back when writing about the Staleys and Trafton in his Sportscope column. In an article titled "Staleys Win World's Dirt Title." that was published the day after the game, he wrote:[2]
Stone-age football tactics, by which the ancient cave-dwellers sought to hold their own by sheer brute force, threaten to lock all gateways of clean sportsmanship to the Staley Athletic club after the flagrant exhibition of rowdyism against the Independents yesterday at Douglas park. The fact that three Independents are crippled seriously today are the result of such disgraceful tactics of a team composed of players from several of the most reputable colleges in the country is obvious that their fate was premeditated and injuries imposed with wanton execution. With a foul player like Trafton, the Staley's best gutter champion, roaming the field at large against teams whose ideals are cloaked in nothing but clean sport—win or lose strictly upon one's merits—the Staleys wills soon find the best professional elevens in the country turning their backs on them. No team in the country will book games that will virtually endanger the lives of its players. Still, several sporty teams have suffered greatly at the hands of the Staleys. Ursella and [Walt] Buland have been out of the game for three works as a result of foul play in the previous game at Douglas park. Yesterday the Staleys eliminated four others. Such tactics must cease or the Staley A. C. won't be able to meet a decent football team. One thing is certain: no matter who are what they become in professional football, they will never get another chance with Rock Island.
When discussing the penalties, he even accused Trafton of attempted murder:
The fact that the Staleys were penalized for a total of 40 yards for unnecessary roughness indicates that they were out to get all the Independents they could and put them out of the game. Nothing could have been more obvious. Their dirty tactics point to a premeditated system for disposing of the Islanders as quickly as possible. Hard football cannot be classed with foul football. They are distinctive. There is no complaint from a good sportsman who is struck with injurious effect when such is necessary to keep him from advancing. But when it is clear that a runner cannot advance the ball after being downed, it is murderous to pile up on him or otherwise jeopardize his life by such tactics as Trafton used yesterday to put Gunderson out of the game. Muckers is not the word for such miscreants, who literally seek an opposing player's life. Today, Gunderson is out of the game for three weeks with 11 stitches over his left eye, two stitches in his under lip and a broken left hand. Lying prone as he was, it is only a miracle that a big brute like Crafton [sic] didn't finish his foul determination and kill Gunderson.
Copeland eventually turned his ire on the officials, particularly Williams while voicing his support for Barron:
Umpire "Stub" Barron was the official who called the foul on Trafton. His penalty, under the rules, was to disqualify the player and penalize the Staleys half the distance to their goal line; which he did. Naturally, the Staleys raised a great howl that Trafton's violation of the rules had been purely unintentional. However, they did not stop to think that no knowledge of the law may be given as an excuse. Williams, who had refereed the previous game, was completely dominated by the Staley team. At one time during the argument that ensued he was heard to remark to Captain Halas: "Don't worry; I am looking out for our own interests." The remark was overheard by a Rock Island player who was lying near the men as they passed. The fact that Williams finally compromised by penalizing the Staleys only 10 yards for “running into opponents” proved there was at least some ground for the conviction that Trafton's violation had been intentional and should have been within the jurisdiction of section 1 of rule 23 of the football code. Umpire Barron called the penalty as it should have been. There was noting [sic] else for him to do, as it was entire unnecessary for Trafton to have been in the play. The Staleys claim that Trafton had stumbled over the pile-up. If he had merely stumbled, he would have gone on and over Gunderson, without sliding and cutting his face almost to ribbons. Such bandits should remember that there are eyes on every field that can detect such gross insults to the name of fair sport, and football brains that can discern between intentional and unintentional fouls.
By the end of his rant, the lone Decatur player Copeland did not target was quarterback Pard Pearce.
Pearce, always a gentleman, did his utmost to keep the game clean and the Staley team beyond reproach, but he was outnumbered 11-1, including Referee Williams, who might as well have been a paid employee of the Staley aggregation. The fact remains: if you can't be a thoroughbred, don't travel. The writer cannot be too vindictive on this score, because next to the surething guy comes the slugger, in his estimation. If these gutter earmarks are entitled to a place in the sporting sun, what is the world coming to, as Rupert Hughes says.
A Gambling Circle?
Oddly enough, a day later, Copeland wrote Trafton probably did not possess malice in his mind during the game. Instead, he suggested Trafton and the Staleys might have been dragged into a local gambling ring.[7]
On second thought, a Rock Island gambling tout might or might not have been directly responsible Sunday afternoon at Douglas park for the unfortunate indiscretion of Trafton. Staley center. It is a spirit of absolute fairness that impels to give Trafton the benefit of such doubt. It is a known fact that this gambling tout, without a dime of his own to wager, accosted Trafton in the Davenport hotel on Saturday night with the malicious suggestion that he bet $100 even that Gunderson would put him out of the game intentionally in the first quarter. This might have been a vicious misrepresentation to Trafton and the rest of the Staleys, impelling them to come to Rock Island and not be caught napping. In other words, they might have resolved to get us before "we could get them," wholly at the intimation of this disreputable gambling tout. The menace of such a character being among the first to greet visiting players not only threatens to counter-act Rock Island's good reputation in professional football but it also serves to stimulate the ill will that was apparent Sunday in the unsportsmanlike tactics of the Staley eleven.
Copeland continued on by explaining his column had "already exposed the perils of overt gambling demonstrations" that took place in Rock Island, urging the Independents to stamp down on gamblers for threatening players. At the very least, he wrote, it was for the "protection of women and children from this wholly obnoxious method of attempting to stimulate more interest in the games."[7] "Usually the person who advertises a weakness for public gambling is among the first to become disgruntled over the slightest reverse of the Independents."[7]
The Democrat Responds
Here's where things get interesting. Remember Trafton telling the Mercer driver that he's heading to Davenport? One of city's sportswriters, writing for the The Davenport Democrat and Leader, mocked Rock Island fans for how they treated Trafton, both during the game and when chasing him out of the city, in the paper's November 8 edition.[8]
The bets of "enthusiastic" fans that Gunderson would "get" Trafton before the end of the first quarter ended disastrously for a Swede center and a number of other players as well. The only time the Staley center was in danger was when some rowdy threw a pop bottle into the taxi in which Trafton and several others were riding after the game. Fortunately none were injured by the missle [sic] or broken glass. It's a foregone conclusion, however, that what the Independents did yesterday was offset by the unsportsmanlike "fans" who displayed their prejudices in such a cheap manner as to disgust all lovers of good, clean sports. For the sake of a few cents, or probably dollars, which they had bet, one of the most rowdy, maudlin, filthy and ungentlemanly volley of unclean and unwarranted cheers was made that put even the hard fighting Independents in a bad light. It's a certainty that Rock Island has many "short sports." Rather than suffer defeat they evidenced the fact that there was nothing too mean and vile for them to say or do, and the majority of the crowd, which was only 20 per cent from Rock Island, was completely disgusted with the rowdyism that leaves a stain on clean sports and especially professional football in the Island City.
The writer went on to directly call out Copeland, proclaiming his pre-game articles helped stir fan attacks against Trafton:
Much of the dirty work on the side-lines is said to be the result of the sentiment fostered during the week by Rock Island's only sport writer, who for the entire week has been quoting Trafton, Staley's center, to the effect that he would "get" the Rock Island line during the game. Trafton was personally challenged, in the Davenport hotel Saturday evening, and a handful of these birds from Rock Island heckled and "razzed" him into bets that he would be forced to take time before the end of the first quarter. Trafton bet till his money was gone and went into the game yesterday hammer and tongs. He took no time out during the entire game and is said to have personally accounted for Gunderson, Chicken, Smith and Nichols. Trafton was approached at the hotel in the presence of a Davenport Democrat representative, who witnessed the allegations made by the Rock Island men.
He then turned his attention back to Independents fans for their behavior, though maybe some of his comments were crossing the line:
If Referee Williams, who the "backers" of the Independents claim was unfair, had been just, he would have penalized the home team at least 20 yards when a cyclone of cheers in the grandstand made it impossible for the visitors to call their signals. This the referee has the power to do and it no doubt would have stopped the noise. When a crowd cheers because a player has been injured, especially if they player has been clean, as it did when Pierce [sic, was referring to Pearce] was temporarily winded, there is little sportsmanship in its makeup. Isn't it too bad these former "barrel-house" supporters could not have been under that section of the bleachers that collapsed. Decatur fans who came a long way to see a real football game, took home with them something new in the form of "rooting" and it's more than likely they'll spread the news. Probably no one was more disappointed with the methods used yesterday than Walter Flannigan [sic], manager of the Independents. He has at all times stood for good, clean football and it is known that he was not in accord with the tactics of those who could not think of losing their money, if there was a possible means of preventing defeat.
After proclaiming Rock Island should stop making excuses for not beating Decatur, he concluded:
The Independents and their management covered themselves with glory yesterday, but—well the least said about some things the better. Any person that loves clean football rooting had a bad taste in his mouth following yesterday's game.
Copeland Fights Back
At the end of his possible Rock Island gambling ring story, Copeland briefly acknowledged the Democrat’s comments on him:[7]
In commenting on Sunday's football game, The Davenport Democrat calls us "an over-enthusiastic, altho prejudiced sport writer." As far as over-enthusiasm goes, we are glad we can still enjoy life. As to prejudice, which is almost identical with incapability, we would stoop to advise that persons with narrow shoulders should never wear suspenders.
In his November 10 column, however, Copeland went all-out in his retaliation:[9]
In reading this column, Argus readers are humbly requested to bear in mind that prior to last Sunday there had been no grievances between The Davenport football writer and The Sportscope. However, during the Independent-Staley football game at Douglas park, the Democrat football expert (?) took occasion to defile Rock Island fans their sportsmanship. Above all, he condoned Trafton's foul tactics and as much as said by innuendo that Gunderson got what was coming to him. Money, this same writer continued his tirade in his sport pages[...] Perhaps he is just one of those "who never could know and never could understand." A vast majority of Davenport fans are "salt of earth," and their presence at any sporting event in Rock Island is always cordially invited. Please excuse them from this dissertation, which is designed wholly for the enlightenment of The Davenport Democrat football writer, who with no stint of verbiage, has insulted the intelligence of Rock Island fandom and the experience of the writer of The Sportscope.
Copeland proceeded to answer much of the article, though to save time and character space, I’ll provide his breakdown of some of the Davenport writer's comments above. For starters, let’s focus on the paragraph where he talked about how Williams could have penalized Rock Island fans 20 yards for being too rowdy. Copeland’s response is extremely long, but I found his snide tone hilarious enough to include:
Turn to the football code, Nodrog, and let's have a little skull practice. We shall begin by reading section 3 of rule 15, whose text is: "No delay arising from any cause whatsoever shall continue more than two minutes." Is that perfectly clear? Simple enough, isn't it? Well, let's proceed. Under "Penalty" we see: "Unreasonable delay on the part of the side not in possession of the ball—Loss of 5 yards, the scrimmage following to remain first down. "Unreasonable delay on the part of the side in possession of the ball—Loss of 5 yards, the down and the point to be gained for first down remaining the same as they were at the beginning of the scrimmage during which the delay occurred. "Refusal of either side to play within two minutes after having been ordered to do so by the referee—Forfeiture of the game." Do you know what is the score of a forfeited game? No? Well, as this is a primary class in football, know you hereafter that it is 1-0. Cheering so that signals cannot be heard should be classified under rule 15 (Delay of Game), shouldn’t it? The wording of the rule itself does not interpret "from any cause whatsoever." It leaves that broad interpretation to the judgment of the referee and field judge. In a way, you are right because the rule contains no specific factors for penalization, neither players or spectators. Infliction of the penalty is confined wholly to the players, but no mention is made of the spectators. Still, a referee or a field judge might exercise the prerogative left for their interpretation and impose a 5-yard penalty. See any reference to "at least 20 yards" there? See any reference to the referee having the authority to penalize for such a "delay?" And, lo, under "Penalty," it is stipulated that only team delays are to be adjudged. Remember, Nodrog, that to report a football game for your newspaper, you first have to possess some knowledge of the rules. Then, perhaps, you will never again make such a ridiculous assertion that a team, either with or without possession of the ball, can be penalized 5. NO "AT LEAST 20 YARDS," because the jubilant or outraged fans persist in cheering or JEERING for more than two minutes. Remember, Nodrog! That is, unless the referee is a broad interpreter of the rule.
Copeland called him "Nodrog" approximately 30 times in his column. While the writer's name is never specified, "Nodrog" is "Gordon" backwards. Make of that what you will. I'll call him by the name as well for convenience. Nodrog's defense of Williams' decision to not eject Trafton for the Gunderson incident was next. I think the funny part is that most of it was in bold and even all-caps.
As to the "fairness" of Referee Williams, which you allege, Nodrog, here is a specimen (remember, you implied as much): The moment Trafton committed his flagrant fouling of Gunderson, Umpire Barron ran in, disqualified Trafton and motioned to Referee Williams to advance the ball half the distance to the Staley goal line. Why? Because Trafton had struck, kneed and kicked Gunderson. You saw it, didn't you? Well, Nodrog, did you see Captain Halas of Staley run toward your sanctimonious Mr. Williams, crying: "Are you going to stand for that?" Did you see Williams falter, consult with Halas and then stride toward Umpire Barron? Did you hear Williams declare, "That foul was unintentional?" Did you see him consult with Halas again? Do you believe they were discussing THEIR return trip to Decatur? [Copeland lists off rules on hitting with certain body parts like the elbows, along with how the umpire should enforce penalties for such incidents. For my sanity, I'll provide them in this image.] You know that Williams finally proposed a compromise penalty [the ten-yard "Running into opponents" one], don't you, Nodrog? Isn't a compromise proposed by one who is subject to frequent attacks of cold feet? Doesn’t he admit he is wrong by proposing a compromise? If he weer [sic] courageous, wouldn’t he stick to his convictions? Williams violated the code himself by misinterpreting rule 27, section 1, and disregarding rule 23, section 1, under "Duties of the Referee["]: and ignoring rule 23, section 1, under "Brief of Rules Where Umpire Has Jurisdiction." Williams' compromise was based on rule 23, section 6, under “Conduct of Players,” which reads: “There shall be no running into opponents after the ball has been declared dead. “Usually, Nodrog, this rule is interpreted to apply to fouls committed where both players are on their feet. Williams had only to view the result of Trafton’s willful foul to determine which penalty should be imposed. The Sportscope has attempted to correct your assertion that Referee Williams was fair. It hopes you understand, Nodrog!
Remember when Nodrog said the rowdier Rock Island fans should have been under the stands when they collapsed? Copeland addressed that as well:
You don't mean that, do you, Nodrog? If you do, there is murder in your heart. Why, the very idea of wishing anything that breathes—good, bad or indifferent—to be in such a fatal predicament! You must give your intelligence more exercise, Nodrog! If that is an example of your mentality, you are living in stoneage times, not 1920 A. D. It is dangerous to reputation to print a statement in which you infer it is pitiful that human beings cannot be killed off. Did you stop to think of that before you began to write? As to Decatur's "outraged" fandom at the game, The Sportscope daresays they witnessed only the culmination of a series of black-guardly fouls on the part of their own "oppressed" football team during the game. The Sportscope also daresays that such thrilled turned to shivers when they suddenly awoke the fact that they weren't on their own lot, and saw a frenzied mob chasing their beloved, self-appointed midwest football champions from the field. Otherwise, The Sportscope cannot imagine how they could take home "something new." On Aug. 23, 1980, the writer saw his first professional baseball game. He had that memorable date jotted down in his memory book and will never forget it. His first impression of professional sport was the spectacle of fully one thousand fans in the act of chasing a single umpire to the clubhouse on the Polo Grounds, New York. That was a little more than thirty years ago, and The Sportscope further daresays that similar incidents have occurred frequently ever since. It has occurred in Davenport more often than The Democrat writer cares to admit, and everywhere else at times when foul tactics incite general fandom to run riot. You cannot stop it, Nodrog; so what are we to do?
The next day, Democrat writer Bob Feeney answered back in his Homade Hooch column:[10]
TWELVE REASONS WHY YOU SHOULDN'T PAY ANY ATTENTION TO COPELAND. (1) Because he gave 12 reasons why the Staleys couldn't win, and 12 why Rock Island couldn't lose before the first game. (2) Because the Staleys won anyway. (3) Because he thinks a team gets penalized 15 yards for having three men off-side. (4) Because he don't write in English, and his stuff isn't worth translating. (5) Because he might throw a pop bottle at you if he got too close to you. (6) Because he believes you ought to "score" a prize fight just like a baseball game. (7) Because he is vulgar, and accuses his colleagues of wearing suspenders. (8) Because he isn't a safe man to have around—he is a jazzing fool, and specializes on "Sporting Jazz". (9) Because he gets personal, and that isn't nice a-tawl! (10) Because after this issue of "Homade Hooch" gets around his reputation wouldn't be worth 30c. (12) Because everybody around here knows he is a has-been, and most suspect that he is a never-was. (13) Because what he has to say doesn't make any difference anyway.
After the list, he began his counterattack:
The Rock Island Argus devoted seven of its eight columns on the sporting page to the Davenport Democrat yesterday. We have not that amount of space available for an answer—Democrat space is too valuable—but we do devote a good part of this column to the subject, not to answer such ridiculous questions but to show the public at large how little some sporting experts know of their own subject. WE DEFY YOU TO DENY THIS: We recall a little incident at the Rock Island-Staley first game [the 7–0 Decatur win]. Rock Island was penalized 15 yards. "Oh!" chirped Rock Island's only sporting editor, "what is the matter? Is someone off side?" "Yes," replied a Democrat staff member, "three men off side." The Rock Island editorial pencil lit upon the page. "Hey, Bruce," called a more charitably inclined Democrat representative, "don't put that down, they were holding." Thus was the Argus once more saved from making a "Sporting Jazz" of its news stories. The Argus Editorial We wonder what the Argus editorial department thinks about this malicious attack on the Democrat. In their editorial Monday night, they did not agree with "by Bruce Copeland" at all. The Argus gave the ferocious Rock Island fans a severe "sacking" on the editorial page, while Bruce was loudly praising them on the sport page. He has never, to our knowledge, even mentioned the pop bottle episode, except in a general way, where it was his plain duty to devote several columns under his journalistic methods to disapproving of it. Bruce seems to think it is quite the proper thing to throw pop bottles at the visitors. Probably he learned that at the first professional baseball game he attended back in 1865, or else he inherited it from a long line of baboons who threw cocoanuts [sic] at the visitors in the jungle. To sum up, however, we agree with the Argus editorial department, not with the sports department.
YOU CAN'T ARGUE WITH A GUY THAT TALKS LATIN. (From the Rock Island Argus.) [Feeney repeats the note added by Copeland at the end of his gambling ring article (the one about suspenders)] A free translation of the Argus panning follows: "Our spirit is young, even if we are bald-headed. Lay off on the rough stuff." The sentence about the suspenders, however, cannot be translated—it is Latin idiom, that is, written by a Latin idiot. We now reply to the R. I editor in his mother tongue, so that he, too, may understand: Having never matriculated from either Yale or Harvard, we are inclined to view with suspicion the urbane metaphors of the self-admitted, over enthusiastic and prejudiced only sport critic of the neighboring community. Comparisons are always odious, but we have always been taught that a well groomed man never wears suspenders, and unaccustomed to their weight on our narrow shoulders we will consult the ouija board immediately in order to determine whether some malicious minded person has been using vile appelations [sic] in connection with our personality. Judging from the continued bleating of Mr. Copeland, R. I.'s alleged sport writer (?) one would almost believe that he not only condones but approves of pop bottle episodes and riots.
The Aftermath
All of this over a football game? Imagine this happening in today's age with social media. Those two would have quickly been ousted from their jobs due to the PR nightmare both papers would have to endure. As far as I can find, Copeland did not answer back to Feeney as he appeared to have moved on from the situation. Probably. On November 17, ten days after the Staleys/Independents game and six days after Feeney's column, The Sportscope focused on the upcoming Rock Island/Dayton Triangles game, though Copeland also wrote a poem. It was innocuous for the most part; that is, until you reach the closing line:[11]
When ladies would a-bowling go, Man wants but little here below. No matter how they fall from grace And throw the balls around the place, Men overlook their sickly score, But not the hosiery that they wore. He didn't break his collar-bone Beneath a wagon-load of stone! No flivver hit him in the neck! No, it was not a railroad wreck! A harder fate was his, 'twould seem: He played against the Staley team!
Sports feuds are fun, aren't they?
Future Rock Island Battles
The Pro Football Hall of Fame's bio on Trafton states the following: "One writer reported that Trafton was strongly disliked in every NFL city, with the exception of Green Bay and Rock Island. In those places, 'he was hated.'"[12] Not surprising about Green Bay considering the Bears/Packers rivalry and definitely not surprising about Rock Island. Interestingly, Trafton's escape from the city was not the only time he clashed with the Independents. A year later, the newly-christened Chicago Staleys visited Rock Island. Immediately after the game ended, Halas gave an envelope containing his team’s share of the ticket revenue to Trafton.[6] "It seemed like a prudent thing to do, because the Rock Island fans were in a characteristically unhappy mood," Halas wrote. "If they started looking for trouble, I figured Trafton would be running for his life, whereas I would have had nothing to run for except the $3,500."[6] The two eventually reached their hotel without problem and Trafton returned the money to Halas.[6] In another meeting between the teams, Trafton and Independents center Lou Kolls repeatedly committed personal fouls on the other. Rather than penalize or eject them, however, referee Bobie Cahn decided against it, figuring the countless infractions would just slow down the game. "We figured we might as well let them kill each other," he quipped.[3] Ironically, in 1923, Walter Flanigan attempted to sign Trafton and fellow Bears playequarterback Joey Sternaman (the younger brother of team co-owner Dutch Sternaman).[13] Both declined.
What About Copeland?
As for Copeland, The Sportscope stopped covering the Independents following the 1920 season as he focused on serving as a baseball umpire starting in June 1921. The Davenport Democrat was thrilled as they wrote: "It can't be! Yes, By Gosh! It is our old friend Bruce Copeland with a mask on his face and a chest protector down his facede [sic] acting as arbiter in the Three-I League. [...] 'Good Luck, Bruce! An' Call 'em Wen 'er over!'"[14] Considering the paper, it's probably Nodrog who wrote it. Before he was officiating baseball games and during the APFA offseason, however, he wasn’t shy in getting jabs at the Staleys. For his 1920 league All-Star Team, he refused to list Trafton, not even as an honorable mention. Although he praised him for his "peak physical conditioning" and for being "the unanimous call for all-star center," Copeland wrote "Trafton's popularity was impaired greatly by his unnecessarily rough tactics, which will be passed over without further comment."[15] In January 1921, the Independents played an exhibition game against the Chicago Thorns, a team that featured many Staley players like Halas and Trafton. Despite being the favorite, playing on their home field, and scoring the first points of the game, the Thorns lost 14–7.[16] A day later, Copeland criticized the Chicago Tribune's game recap:[17]
The victory also proved the utter disregard of Chicago newspapers for a football team which in every way is superior to the Staleys, conceded national champions after playing the Akron Indians in a scoreless tie. A game of that kind would have packed Madison Square Garden, New York, from tanbark to girders and filled columns of space in New York newspapers. There is an insidious influence in Chicago which never wished the Islanders any great amount of weal. It is also probable that the Staleys did not wish to see a detailed description of their utter rout as inflicted by the Independents. Somebody put on the soft pedal. [Some proclamations about the superiority of Rock Island's players and arguing the Independents could have won the 1920 APFA title if they "[showed] more fight" like they did in the exhibition]
Copeland’s column proceeded to mock the Tribune for... calling the Independents the Independents? According to him, they had agreed to play the game under the name "Rock Island Professionals", though the newspaper apparently didn't get the memo. On that note, he also made fun of the Staleys some more:
Chicago AFTERNOON newspapers, who showed a greater inclination to recommend the classic than their contemporaries, and also handbills and scorecards advertised the locals as the Independents. The Staley's, however, took the wise precaution to disguise themselves as the Chicago Thorns without even being hyphenated to their rightful identity. Today's Chicago Tribune printed an obscure article supplied by Joe Prendergast Sunday night after it was learned that the early editions of both Chicago morning dailies contained no mention of the Independent-Staley contest. Prendergast called both offices on the phone at 11 p. m. and both professed great surprise that there had been such a game. They didn't even know the score. The Tribune stated today that the Staleys had disbanded previously. Nine of their regular players in Sunday's lineup fails to corroborate the fact. Seeing as how nine Staleys and two others were defeated by eleven representative Rock Island Independents, who had sought to protect the record of that organization by billing themselves previously as the Rock Island Professionals, it is no more than hair, as they were advertised by the game promoters as the Independents, that they should be credited with having defeated the Staleys, not the Chicago Thorns.
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