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Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead. I read this and thought it interesting. Enjoy from SeekingAlpha
Nike (NYSE:NKE) will headline a light roster of earnings reports in the week ahead, while Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) WWDC event sets the stage for the company's launch of the first 5G iPhones later this year. On the economic front, reports on existing home sales, jobless claims, consumer spending and a Q1 GDP revision will be the headliners. Fed heads are out in force next week, with virtual speeches on the docket for Raphael Bostic, James Bullard and Charles Evans. In a sign of normalcy, Ford (NYSE:F) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) are expected to return to pre-pandemic production levels at U.S. plants, while results of Fed stress tests on major banks will be announced on June 25. Earnings spotlight: IHS Market (NYSE:INFO) on June 23; BlackBerry (NYSE:BB), KB Home (NYSE:KBH) and National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ) on June 24; Nike (NKE), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), Accenture (NYSE:ACN) and Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) on June 25. IPO watch: U.S. grocery store operator Albertsons (ACI) is expected to price its IPO next week and begin to trade. The company could have a valuation of over $10B if the IPO prices at the midpoint of the expected range of $18 to $20 range. Albertsons, which is looking to raise as much as $2B, is one of the grocery chains seeing a sales boom in business during the coronavirus pandemic. Stakeholders Kimco Realty (NYSE:KIM) and Cerberus Capital are both selling off shares in the offering. No other IPOs are due to price during the week. M&A tidbits: The walk date for the Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR)-Eldorado Resorts (NASDAQ:ERI) merger arrives on June 24, although no surprises are anticipated. Shareholders vote on the Provident Financial (NYSE:PFS)-SB One Bancorp (NASDAQ:SBBX) deal on June 25. On the same date, Delphi Technologies (NYSE:DLPH) shareholders vote on the merger with BorgWarner (NYSE:BWA). It is almost a lock that there will be some more drama in the Taubman Centers (NYSE:TCO)-Simon Property (NYSE:SPG) duel. Projected dividend changes (quarterly): Kroger (NYSE:KR) to $0.17 from $0.16, John Wiley (NYSE:JW.A) to $0.35 from $0.34, Saul Centers (NYSE:BFS) to $0.27 from $0.53. Spotlight on Nike: Nike will post its FQ4 report with more uncertainty in the air than almost any time before due to the lack of formal guidance from the company. The two biggest pullouts from the report are likely to be the pace of recovery in China and the momentum of the e-commerce business. Nike is one of the companies seen by Wall Street as in a strong position on the other side of the pandemic. "We see Nike as favorably positioned for both secular fitness/casualization trends and industry structural changes that benefit those with strong direct engagement with consumers," notes bullish-leaning Wells Fargo ahead of the print. Stocks that quite often move right along with Nike on earnings day include Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY), Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) and Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS). WWDC: Apple will hold its annual developers conference on June 22-26 in a virtual format this year. Apple is expected to announce its ARM-based Macs as the company advances its control of chips and architecture away from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). Enhancements with iOS14, tvOS 14 and watchOS 7 are also anticipated, along with new products/R&D initiatives on the AR headset and wearables/AirPods front. Tim Cook will give the keynote presentation on June 22 at 10:00 Pacific time in what is likely to be his last presentation before the annual September iPhone reveal event. Healthcare watch: Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) has an investor series presentation next week covering its early pipeline/immuno-oncology on June 22 and hematology on June 25. PDUFA dates arrive for Karyopharm Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:KPTI) Xpovio on June 23, Zogenix's (NASDAQ:ZGNX) Fintepla on June 25 and Heron Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:HRTX) HTX-011 on June 26. The big event of the week in the sector is the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Virtual Annual Meeting II running from June 22-24. A large number of potentially market-moving posters and abstracts are due to be released, as well as special sessions on COVID-19 and cancer research. Some of the notable companies due to present include Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN), Phio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PHIO), Exicure (NASDAQ:OTC:XCUR), Xencor (NASDAQ:XNCR), ESSA Pharma (NASDAQ:EPIX), ImmunoGen (NASDAQ:IMGN), Molecular Templates (NASDAQ:MTEM), Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH), CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP), Jounce Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JNCE), GlycoMimetics (NASDAQ:GLYC), Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN), Provectus Therapeutics (OTC:PVCT), ORIC Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ORIC), Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY), aTyr Pharma (NASDAQ:LIFE), TG Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TGTX) and Neoleukin Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NLTX). Bank tests: The Federal Reserve will release results of the annual bank stress tests on June 25. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles noted that the test this year includes running banks up against three possible economic trajectories of varying severity to see how they perform due to the unprecedented uncertainty about the pandemic. The test will see how banks perform against a rapid V-shaped recovery, a slower U-shaped recovery and a rough W-shaped recovery. The test results could factor in to dividend decisions down the road for Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), while Capital One (NYSE:COF) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are seen being pushed under the scenarios. Traders are making plays based on the results, with a notable amount of bullish options bets being placed on Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). Some other bank names to watch when the results roll out are PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC), Truist (NYSE:TFC), Regions Financial (NYSE:RF), Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY), HSBC North America (NYSE:HSBC), UBS (NYSE:UBS), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), Barclays (NYSE:BCS), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) and Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN). Analyst meetings and business updates: Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) will host a fireside chat for the investor community with members of its management team on June 22. The impact of some of the games introduced at EA Play Live 2020 will be discussed. Hewlett Packard Enterprises (NYSE:HPE) is launching the first-ever HPE Discover Virtual Experience on June 23 to showcase the company's pivot to an edge-to-cloud platform-as-a-service company. In the transportation sector, Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU) is participating in a Q&A webcast with Cowen on June 23. Also on June 23, Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) has an investor call with Morgan Stanley scheduled. Meanwhile, Sanofi is holding a virtual R&D day event on June 23. Bristol-Myers Squibb has an investor event covering immunology and cardiovascular on June 26. Conferences rundown: The timing looks spot on for the Jefferies Virtual Consumer Conference on June 23-24 with the pandemic shifting shopping habits in the U.S. Companies due to present include Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), Planet Fitness (NYSE:PLNT), Nu Skin (NYSE:NUS), Freshpet (NYSE:FPT), Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA), Sysco (NYSE:SYY), Hostess Brands (NASDAQ:TWNK), Shack Shack (NYSE:SHAK) and Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK). In the healthcare sector, the BMO 2020 Prescriptions for Success Healthcare Conference features virtual presentations by Humana (NYSE:HUM), Halozyme (NASDAQ:HALO), Horizon Therapeutics (NASDAQ:HZNP), Apellis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:APLS), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) and Replimune (NASDAQ:REPL) on June 23. Other conferences of note include the SVB Leerink CybeRx Series CNS Forum, BMO Chemicals & Packaging Conference, Wells Fargo Bricks to Clicks Digital Conference, Goldman Sachs Leveraged Finance Conference and the Morgan Stanley Zero Trust Architectures Virtual Thematic Conference. On the smaller side of the conference schedule, the mining and metals sectors will be in focus, with John Tumazos Very Independent Research virtual meetings set for June 23-24 on Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM), Western Copper and Gold (NYSEMKT:WRN), KORE Mining (OTCQB:KOREF), Amarillo Gold (OTCQB:AGCBF), Sierra Metals (NYSEMKT:SMTS), Foran Mining (OTC:FMCXF), Wolfden Resources (OTC:WLFFF), Trilogy Metals (NYSEMKT:TMQ) and Adventus Mining (OTCQX:ADVZF). Ford F-150: Ford has a digital reveal event for the all-new F-150 set for June 25. The Ford team is expected to describe innovative features of the all-new F-150, including the new electrical architecture, a flat-lying passenger sleeper seat and over-the-air updates to key modules controlling vehicle performance and user experiences. The new truck is seen as a critical part of Ford's plan to slash $5B in warranty costs and push the automaker's vehicle connectivity platform. As a profit generator, the F-150 launch later this year will also help restore the company's balance sheet. The all-new Ford F-150 will be discussed by execs in detail during a June 26 conference call with Citi Research. Deurbanization trade: Expect more talk from analysts next week about which sectors and stocks could benefit if the mega-trend of people and businesses moving out of downtowns of major cities becomes a reality. Jefferies got the ball rolling last week by singling out Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Floor & Decor (NYSE:FND), At Home (NYSE:HOME), Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) and Wayfair (NYSE:W) as retailers that could gain from an uptick in suburban living and more spending on houses than metropolitan apartments. One of the bigger pure plays is Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO), which has racked up a 64% gain over the last 90 days. RVs: Keep an eye on the RV sector with May shipment numbers due out from the RV Industry Association. Demand is expected to be on the rebound after RV shipments fell 82% in April. Looking ahead, there is a difference in opinion on Wall Street on the outlook for Winnebago (NYSE:WGO), Thor Industries (NYSE:THO), Patrick Industries (NASDAQ:PATK), LCI Industries (NYSE:LCII) and Camping World Holdings (NYSE:CWH). Some firms like SunTrust Robinson Humphrey expect a RV boom as consumers gravitate toward safer vacations, while Bank of America has warned that the high rate of unemployment and salary cuts could keep discretionary spending in check. Sports betting: Time is running out for the California Assembly to pass legislation on sports betting to move the issue to the November ballot. The bill has to pass through the legislature before June 25 to become an election issue. Why is it a big deal? California is forecast to have the potential for a +$30B sports betting market through sports books placed at tribal casinos, horse racing tracks and satellite wagering facilities. "California could easily become one of the most productive sports-betting markets in the world," observes gaming analyst Chris Grove. Tax revenue from sports betting would also help the Golden State with its budget issues amid the pandemic and economic downturn. Stocks of interest in relations to how sports betting in California plays out include DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), William Hill (OTCPK:WIMHF), MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), Caesars Entertainment, Fanduel (DUEL), Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ:RRR), Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN). Casinos: The Nevada Gaming Commission is meeting on June 25 to likely approve amendments to state regulations that would streamline the process for moving to modern payment methods. The casino industry in general wants to quickly adopt cashless payment transactions on the casino floor due to the risk of handling cash during the coronavirus outbreak. The casino reset could have implications for Visa (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA) and American Express (NYSE:AXP), as well as financial apps from Apple (AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL). Casino operators like MGM Resorts, Wynn Resorts, Caesars Entertainment and Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN) would also welcome the change. What's not playing: Warner Bros.'s (NYSE:T) feature animated film Scoob! will stream on HBO Max on June 26 after running in a premium video on-demand window. The children's picture was first scheduled for theaters on May 15 before opting for a 48-hour rental PVOD period price of U.S. $19.99. While Scoob! didn't make quite the splash that Trolls World Tour did in the spring when it nabbed $100M in digital sales over three weeks, it's another incremental step away from the traditional studio release format for major studios like Sony (NYSE:SNE), Universal Pictures (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Disney (NYSE:DIS). As for theater chains, auditoriums are likely to operate at 25% to 50% capacity as AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), Cinemark (NYSE:CNK), IMAX (NASDAQ:IMAC), Marcus Entertainment (NYSE:MCS) and Reading International (NASDAQ:RDI) open back up this summer. Notable annual meetings: Companies with virtual annual meetings set next week include Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (NASDAQ:OLLI) on June 22, Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) on June 23, Keurig Dr Pepper (NYSE:KDP) on June 24, At Home Group and Tailored Brands (NYSE:TLRD) on June 25. Barron's mentions: The publication digs out four industrial companies whose stocks are called compelling. Midsize manufacturers RBC Bearings (NASDAQ:ROLL) and Wabtec (NYSE:WAB) join large-caps Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) and Ametek (NYSE:AME) on the short list of economy recovery picks. Of the four, Wabtec trades with the lowest forward PE ratio at 14.2. Brunswick (NYSE:BC) is also singled out this week as an advantageous product-mix shift and rising boat demand are seen helping to drive shares higher. Most of Brunswick's profit is derived from the high-margin Mercury engine business. The rally in tech names hasn't encapsulated the entire sector. Attractive names still trading at less than 4X sales include Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC), CACI International (NYSE:CACI), Leidos Holdings (NYSE:LDOS), Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX), Amdocs (NASDAQ:DOX), Ciena (NYSE:CIEN), Accenture, MKS Instruments (NASDAQ:MKSI), Intel and F5 Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV). The cover story this week hits on the rising inequality issue in the U.S., noting that it can be a breeding ground for all kinds of concerning things for the market like secular stagnation.
For the final time this year, lets kick off the last remaining offline tournament on the planet worth mentioning with a bang.
Group A:
Trap's 17th Code S with his highest achievement in GSL being the back to back Silver medals in 2019 (also has a Ro4 finish to his name and three more Ro8s in addition to that). Currently at the very top of the Protoss food chain, the clear favorite heading into today.
Solar's 20th Code S with his highest achievement in GSL being four Ro8 finishes, the last of which he got a long time ago in 2017. A tough Dark Horse player regardless, up and down during offline play at the best of times but never an easy opponent.
SpeCial's 8th Code S with his highest achievement in GSL being three Ro16 finishes, during two of which he got close to making the next Round. The only foreigner competing in the tournament this Season and closest to Korean Terran play we're going to get outside of Seoul.
Spear's 1st Code S ever, meaning he would likely be in for one hell of a rough debut considering the luck of the draw didn't give him much to work with.
Warning: Spoilers Ahead, Obviously The ball clearly bounced Solar's way this afternoon, scraping by against both his opponents to nevertheless secure 1st place in the Group through unpredictable and coin-flippy plays along the way. After that Trap got handed the easiest layup of his professional career, only to find himself on the edge of death having to lean on veteran savvy to bail him out of trouble, securing 2nd in the process.
This match felt like the definition of watching the skill gap and/or lack of experience at work, don't bring a spear to a gunfight.
Eternal Empire | The full wall from the Terran with fast three CCs behind it looked like a solid choice. The problem turned out to be the Protoss player's complete disregard for safety and or disrespect as he blindly took his own two expansions pretty quickly, earning himself a solid econ lead regardless. From there some finesse with Stargate play by Trap completely threw Spear off, picking off SCVs and army alike in addition to blocking the third CC from landing. Forced into a desperation push of sorts, the Terran pulled The Boys™ and arrived circa 9:35 when even a nice move with EMPs couldn't get rid of all the Storms, so as the Protoss Thunder came down up against something barely resembling micro the writing was on the wall for this one even before the arrival of the Colossi.
Ever Dream | The most interesting thing about each player's opener here turned out to be a Marauder Hellion assault in the works versus another Stargate opener. When a vigilant Probe saw a pair of suspicious infantry come around to turn its lights off early in the game, Trap immediately started pooling his Phoenixes back at home so as the attack arrived around 4:20 seeing as none of the Terran units could shoot up this game ended on the spot, regardless of how much fun the Protoss got to have playing with his food after that.
In this series the players took turns smashing each other to pieces, ending with a fancy-pants build from the Terran that fell flat so he lost accordingly.
Deathaura | I didn't think there would be anything wrong with SpeCial kicking things off by putting down three CCs, however it also looked like he wanted to go heavy into Mech production right away too, which felt incredibly greedy. Solar invested into Overlord speed, got to see just enough to make his decision and bet it all on an early Ravager Roach Ling assault when he correctly evaluated the defense would be nonexistent. Off not even 40 Drones or so, the Zerg swarmed across the map and hit at seemingly the most opportune moment around 5:50 as he surrounded the enemy army out of position and got on top of the couple of Tanks that were out to immediately get the bop win.
Golden Wall | The most important part worth mentioning at the start of the game turned out to be the Overlord speed again, finding out it would be Bio play this time from the Terran. From there both players signed a peace treaty and got into their macro, notably with SpeCial getting away with the Gold base third virtually for free. When the Mutas arrived inside a pretty empty Terran base, the Zerg's chances were looking pretty hot, only for the Terran push to finally come out at roughly 08:40. At first, it almost seemed futile as SpeCial didn't necessarily siege anything too important, only to then snipe a poorly placed Bane Nest around 09:30 while shutting down the attempted counter attack cold with his reinforcements. With a commanding army supply and tech gap, the Terran did his best Bomber impersonation and so paraded Marine Tank across the map to completely roll over his opponent with a knockout blow out of nowhere.
Ever Dream | SpeCial lived up to his name as he put down the proxy Ghost Academy, however Solar's insistence on the Overlord speed every single game made it so no amount of trying to hide the Ghosts barely in and out of vision would work against the Zerg. The technical attack featuring mostly Hellions by the Terran kicked off around 5:15 and immediately got sent back home after it ran up against one too many units ready for it. From there it's true SpeCial did continue gaining some value out of the Ghosts with snipes on Queens, Roaches and even an Overseer but ultimately just didn't have the econ engine to keep up. The last real assault by the Terran hit at roughly 8:20 and considering the Zerg had a bigger army already that should tell you how well it went, with Solar cleaning everything up pretty quickly and snowballing across the map to end the series.
M3 | Trap [ 1 : 2 ] Solar | ★★☆☆☆ | To Shreds, You Say?
An utterly brilliant start from the Protoss player here off the back of truly merciless harassment quickly devolved after some questionable micro slash positioning was followed up by two ugly losses featuring a Ling flood and then inadept Glaives to wrap up the defeat.
Pillars of Gold | I can't praise the harassment by Trap here enough, his first Oracle killed off four Drones and when the second one joined the fleet an additional five went down instantly. A pair of Adepts then swept in to kill off even more of the Zerg's econ, essentially sealing the deal. From there the Protoss just expanded and teched up, pressured the fourth Hatch and forced Solar to invest heavily into low tier units just to survive, so at that point he didn't really have a choice to hold back. The attempted Zerg assault around 8:30 felt incredibly desperate, Shield Batteries and a single Immortal did their thing before the Disruptors also arrived, which even with at times terrible positioning slash micro couldn't give Solar enough of a lifeline back into it as waves of Swarm washed up against a wall of Protoss they could never get through.
Ever Dream | As if dedicating a tribute performance to Stats and Dear, Trap's turn to lose against the Ling flood in 2020 finally came, with his only nearby patrolling Adept just missing the incoming swarm around 3:12 at which point the Lings got to waltz into the Protoss expansion uncontested and I'm sure everyone knows what that means.
Golden Wall | The backdoor expansion from the Protoss looked cool until the Zerg also mined out his own minerals, basically opening the door for another rush, which Trap respected the possibility of a lot more this time around. From there it turned out to be Glaives o'clock and Solar responded with Roaches while utilizing the awkward entry point the Protoss had to work with. Trap spent a really long time just posturing, only killing off Drones much later as he set up the Disruptor Speed Prism play behind the Adepts. The third base location from the Protoss expanding towards his opponent looked really cool all things considered, however in hindsight when he then committed to a sketchy assault at 7:20 that not only got cleaned up pretty easily but then Trap also had to deal with multi pronged attacks on his own bases, the snowball effect kicked in hard. When an Immortal died to a few Roaches and the third Nexus got killed off, if there was any hope left it would soon be gone as the Mutas got revealed on top of that, kicking off a base race that the Protoss immediately tapped out on seeing as it felt completely pointless.
M4 | SpeCial [ 0 : 2 ] Spear | ★★★☆☆ | Running Into Walls
This series felt like watching one guy expecting the other one to just roll over and die, only to find himself on the receiving end of a devastating upset.
Eternal Empire | The start here can only be described as looking into the mirror and refusing to blink, so lets skip ahead to after both players had established all their expansions and someone decided to start playing the game. Before the ingame clock could hit double digits a generous donation of two Medivacs prompted SpeCial to put his foot on the pedal, rushing across the map to siege a slightly overeager fourth base by Spear. At roughly 10:40 after perfectly setting up a great siege, the foreigner hope decided to go for the throat instead of the easy points, resulting in getting himself sandwiched and swallowed up by the underdog's eager forces, essentially the key moment of the game. Losing one too many Tanks thanks to these shenanigans, SpeCial only had his Vikings to lean on for some control over the game and that didn't last too long either. Little victories here and there were follwed by Marines running into sieged Tanks over and over, the aggression from SpeCial felt unnecessarily turned up to 11 for no particular reason and even when he finally got off a great attack sneaking in around 15:25 to get rid of another CC and a bunch of SCVs the same would happen to him across the map not before long. Spear's setups all over the map, Sensor Towers everywhere and solid defense allowed him to completely deflect all of his opponent's attempts to get a "gotcha" style win, earning the victory in a war of attrition with some truly impressive play.
Deathaura | There would be a lot less downtime on the second map with Spear doing a weird early attack with one of each Terran unit that didn't really work out only for SpeCial to then pull out a full on assault a few minutes at 6:50 when he took out a CC while his opponent tried to mini doom drop across the map. What felt like a wild opening then got tamed by SpeCial's solid defense, basically taking a near insurmountable lead at that point. Spear kept with it regardless, putting on the most pressure he could while gambling on a double expand to catch back up, which thankfully for him didn't get punished. Still, the ball clearly remained in the foreigner's hands as he leaned on the trusty Ravens to keep gaining victories in skirmishes, which more than likely fueled his desire to once again try for the instant win around 12:35 when he got himself flanked again and tried to play it off with a doomed drop inside the enemy main. Throughout all this, despite some questionable decisions here and there, SpeCial still kept the lead and all Spear could do was essentially hunker down and hold on. The fatal mistake, however, came at roughly 21:00 when another botched attack by the foreigner resulted in his infantry disappearing for the price of just two Liberators, which completely tipped the scales for the first time in the underdog's favor since the start of the map and as soon as Spear got the lead he smashed his opponent over the head with it as if to make a point. Not even a few minutes later SpeCial found himself without any more money to burn, low on army and completely out of position as the underdog pulled off an even more unlikely upset here to secure the win.
M5 | Trap [ 2 : 0 ] Spear | ★★☆☆☆ | So Close Yet So Far
I believe a young Liquid Terran player said it best: "I don't believe in momentum, only skill" and our underdog looked as if on a mission to prove him right as he completely botched the consecutive upset here.
Eternal Empire | Spear started strong with the perfect mixup as he put up the early wall off again only to go into a Drilling Claws with Armory rush this time as opposed to infinity CCs. Trap stuck to his guns with the Stargate play and looked just shy of ready to deal with the harassment, instead at roughly 4:35 the Terran got off a money shot that killed 9 Probes and then even got to save all three of his Mines. Admittedly, the Protoss found himself still ahead in workers at that point and even got some minor revenge across the map with his fleet, since those early game attacks are pricey to put together. Nevertheless, Spear built off that early lead in tempo which culminated in an assault on the fourth Nexus around 10:10 when he took a couple of great fights and got a commanding lead in supply, so when just a minute or so later Trap also donated both his Colossi to the opponent this game felt already over. At that point Spear killed the fourth Nexus and we were all just waiting for the Protoss to tap out accordingly. Instead, showing a healthy amount of stubbornness, Trap queued up a bunch of Disruptors and crossed his fingers his opponent would throw the game somehow. Spear all too quickly obliged, donating squads of units on weird harassment suicide runs repeatedly instead of maxing out and ending his lower econ inferior supply opponent, eventually tipping the army lead completely after a tragic Medivac fleet went quietly into the night with one too many passengers onboard, after which Trap pounced and took care of business across the map.
Deathaura | Stargate was the order of the day, which Trap utilized a lot more effectively here, notably picking off Stim with a sizable fleet ruining his opponent's gameplan of an early attack completely. Stuck on two bases with a bunch of units that had nowhere else to go now, Spear tried to force it at 7:00 with a mini doom drop, however all too quickly got chased out and gunned down. From there, with his Blink done and fleet still more than willing and able to help out, Trap swallowed up the retreating army and just finished his demoralized opponent off in merciless fashion with ease.
This was not a straightforward day of Code S, which definitely made things a lot more exciting than expected.
Maps of the Night: M2G3 for the novelty value of a Ghost opener in TvZ was interesting to watch even if it ultimately failed, while M3G1 felt like for 90% of the game the Protoss play got the closest we would see to perfection in PvZ. I think the best overall series was M4, but I do understand TvT and lockdown defense play in general aren't for everyone.
Recommended Matches: M4 > M2 > M5 > M3 > M1
Note: Through the power of new reddit integrated Polls seem to be a thing now, so if you want to vote for a match that's underrated by me in your opinion feel free to do so at the bottom of the post, voting will close in 7 days giving everyone ample time to do so. Also, if you feel like a specific map got overlooked or underplayed that's what the comments are for, chime in with whatever interesting thing you noticed and I missed at will. Finally, here are some of my closing thoughts on each player:
Solar got the job done here, can we say much more beyond that? It always feels weird to semi-diss the winner of a Group, however when the quality of the gameplay isn't necessarily blowing our minds it feels disingenuous to pretend otherwise. In any case, like I mentioned at the start of the post, Solar hasn't exactly had a ton of success in this tournament during his long career so it does feel like we're waiting for him to make it back to the Ro8 and possibly even go further. With the current problems Dark is experiencing and soO going away, the path is clear to the top of the food chain for Zerg and Solar is definitely on the short list of players expected to step up to that plate.
Trap kicked things off with three essentially perfect maps and then experienced a classic collapse to take away any hopes you could have had for him having winded the clock back to 2019. The loss to Solar felt genuinely preventable and the second series against Spear could have easily gone to the third map, possibly even been a 2-0 the other way had the Jin Air player's mental gone boom after that chaotic first map. With so many top Protoss players getting rounded up for the military, Trap is soon going to be the best player in the world for that race by default and I'd love to see him earn that title, because right now it doesn't look like it'll be given to him based on merit. When things are going good for him the Jin Air Protoss certainly looks great, but when something goes bad for him everything quickly turns awful for the Protoss and your opponent won't always be there to bail you out especially not in the later Rounds.
SpeCial had a confusing TvZ to start, where by the end it looked like he got too fancy for his own good, but the real trouble turned out to be a nonchalant slash even arrogant approach to facing the underdog. I'm pretty sure SpeCial wins M4 likely 90 out of 100 times and none of those involve treating your opponent like he's just a ladder wannabe. As it turns out, the enemy Terran's best quality by the end of the night would seem to be his ability to defend, making our foreigner hope's approach i.e. running into him nonstop quite flawed. I'm sure we're all aware SpeCial is a lot better than this on average, so I hope to see him regroup and reset to come in with a better performance next time because this wasn't it.
Spear opened up by getting deleted out of the server as you would expect when the worst player in the tournament comes up against one of the best ones, only to then open a can of whoopass on these nerds. It was one thing to experience the underdog win in the mirror overcoming adversity - especially on that second map - however as we were watching him then dismantle Trap it simply felt surreal to see. Granted, we then saw Spear choke into oblivion and lose all the same, however seeing as this was his first ever Code S lets give the guy a break and hope he can keep it together next time, because the skills are clearly there - more so on the defensive end, admittedly, but hopefully he can develop.
As always if you think differently or have something interesting to add feel free to do so in the comments below. Catch you on Wednesday for Group B, when a possibly still compromised Dark will have to deal with the notoriously up and down Zest in addition to an increasingly ramping up TaeJa and the destroyer of tables himself Creator. Thanks as always for reading & see you when I see you! (: -M View Poll
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Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried. On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences. So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings. (2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better. But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please. Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier. Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet. But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play? Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept. Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time. Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette. Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins. When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance. Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at. Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout. Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets. Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing. Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it. Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results. The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same. You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists. This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more. The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino. Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails. If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit. Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid. And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager. So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan. Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management. Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE. Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing. Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line. But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there. Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back. Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again. Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT. Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best. 6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case. The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines: -high frequency, low payout slots -low frequency, high payout slots In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts. This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going. The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine. At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips. This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing. But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster. In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates. Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away. 5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it. In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge. This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play. The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to. The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%. Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return. So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results. Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing. Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away. 4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet. Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts. There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that. Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine. This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%. The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet. So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour. My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can. To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it. This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better. Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge. Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose. 3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below. However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions. Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino: -The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle. -Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack. -No insurance offered, no surrender. -Dealer stands on soft 17. -Double down on any two cards. -Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed. -Seven-Card Charlie. Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice. But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that. The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace). When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not. But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize. The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it. Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard. Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit. Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20. If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment. But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies. Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong. As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop. 2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it. If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can. The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on. Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize. Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning. If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds. Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win. Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each. A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner. It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples. Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%? They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner. So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale. So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players. Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%. This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run. This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge. But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together. In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED. This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple. So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows: -Favorites: EVENS to 5-1 -Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1 -Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1 Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening. The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1. EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%. This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise. A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%, a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time, and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time. The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips. These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results. But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways. But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1. Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%. This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact. So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%, the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time, and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time. When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%! This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips. This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing. Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field. If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb: -Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it. -Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field. -To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips. But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong. It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race. Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side. To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum. I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it". User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play. Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it. With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value. So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time. 2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something. And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide. Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins. -A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work. -Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there. -Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker. -Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g). -Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite. -Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
This is a filler "episode". No knowledge of the ongoing arcs is required. [Brackets] = voiceclips. (The video opens with an outside view of E. Gadd’s lab.) (Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQDGfyIp6G4 ) (Mario and SMG4 walk up towards the lab.) SMG4: Why did you want to go here so badly? Mario: It’s about that tournament in Inkopolis that starts in two days. SMG4: The Splatfest? What about it? Did E. Gadd build you something you can use there? Mario: That’s what we’re going to find out. SMG4: I’m not sure I follow… Mario: See, E. Gadd is very big brain, so I’m sure he built something that could be useful at the tournament. That’s why we’re going to take a look around his lab and see if there’s something we can borrow. SMG4: You mean steal. Mario: I know what I meant. SMG4: Sure. (They’ve arrived at the door. SMG4 knocks.) SMG4: And how are you planning to do this, anyway? I doubt that you could just grab some crap and get out unnoticed. Mario: Why do you think I brought you with me? You’re gonna be the distraction while Mario handles the important stuff. SMG4: Wow, I feel flattered. (Pause.) SMG4: Huh. This is taking a bit long. Maybe he’s away? (Music ends.) (The camera cuts to the inside of the lab.) SMG4 (offscreen): The door is unlocked, though. (Both then enter the lab. Mario immediately starts looking around.) SMG4: Hey Mario? Stealing aside, aren’t you worried about being caught cheating? I’m pretty sure using E. Gadd’s crap isn’t tournament legal. Mario: Well, as someone smarter than me once said: “Cheating is a legitimate strategy”, so we’re good. SMG4: I’m pretty sure that’s not what they meant… (Mario suddenly emerges from the lab, wearing a metallic backpack.) Mario: [Check THIS fucking shit out!] SMG4: What is this thing? Mario: How would I know? It had this piece of paper attached, but Mario was too lazy to read it. You can take a look. (Mario hands SMG4 a piece of paper. While he’s reading, Mario is messing around with his backpack, before accidentally pressing something, which causes wings to extend from its sides. SMG4 finishes reading the paper.) SMG4: Apparently, this is a prototype jetpack. There should be a button on the left strap to turn it on, but it’s supposed to be unstable and- Mario: You mean this button? (Mario presses the button. He immediately blasts off and slams headfirst into the ceiling.) SMG4: …And with an overkill power output. Still, that’s actually very impressive technology if it managed to get you off the ground. (Mario then falls from the ceiling and runs off again, before returning with what looks like a Virtual Boy on his head.) Mario: And what do you think of this one? SMG4: You look even more like an idiot than usual when you’re wearing it. Mario: That’s weird… (The camera changes to show Mario’s perspective. Everything is tinted red, with a bunch off charts and number streams, as well as what looks like a targeting reticle flying around the screen.) Mario: …Because I feel smarter than ever before. SMG4: [What the fuck are you talking about…] (The reticle focuses on SMG4, before scanning him. A bunch of data shows up on the screen: Internet name: SMG4 Real name: who cares Age: at least 5 Weight: less than you, fatass Occupation: professional internet loser The scan also makes an x-ray of him, making him appear as a skeleton from Mario’s perspective.) Mario: [Ooh, very scary!] (The text “Power blast fully charged” then appears on the screen.) Mario: Power blast? The hell is that? (The text changes to “Commencing power blast”.) SMG4: Uhh… Mario? Why are those goggles glowing? (A laser then fires at SMG4, completely enveloping him. Mario then takes the goggles off.) Mario: I don’t like this one. Makes my head hurt. (He notices SMG4, who actually became a skeleton after the blast.) Mario: (Gasp) THAT SCANNER IS STILL IN MY HEAD! (Abrupt cut to the next scene. SMG4 is back to normal, and Mario is looking through a nearby chest, throwing out gadgets he doesn’t find interesting. Among those are unfinished prosthetics, lightsabers, smartphones, armor pieces, a telletubbie costume, and others.) SMG4: What are you even looking for? Mario: I dunno. Something cool. (Pause.) SMG4: It’s not about the Splatfest anymore, is it? Mario: [Nope.] I just want to see what he’s got here. (Another pause, before Mario finds a shovel and lifts it up above his head.) Mario: [Heyyyy, that’s pretty cool!] SMG4: Mario… That’s a shovel. I can’t see how could anyone consider it cool. Mario: Shut up, I’m sure it has some hidden functions, like a laser cannon! Or a shield! Or magnet! Or free wifi! Or even- (Suddenly, E. Gadd enters the lab.) E. Gadd: [WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!] (Mario, without saying anything, throws the shovel at him. However, E. Gadd takes out an Uno reverse card, which the shovel bounces off of, hitting Mario in the head, knocking him out.) E. Gadd: Now then- (Suddenly, a portal forms around Mario and the shovel. An image of the pyramids can be seen in it. Suddenly, the portal closes, engulfing both Mario and the shovel. SMG4 and E. Gadd stare at each other in silence.) SMG4: [What the bloody hell just happened?!] E. Gadd: [I have no idea!] SMG4: The hell you mean “no idea”?! You built that thing! E. Gadd: [I didn’t!] I just needed a shovel, so I bought one on Ebay! There was nothing about portals appearing out of nowhere! SMG4: Alright, that explains… Absolutely nothing. What do you think happened? E. Gadd: My best bet is that the thing is a time machine. SMG4: …You can’t be serious. E. Gadd: Come on, I once built one that looked like a TV, a shovel isn’t too much of a stretch. SMG4: That’s not what I meant, I’ve seen crazier things in my life than a time machine shovel. I was talking about the threat that Mario poses to the universe as we know it by time travelling unsupervised. E. Gadd: Oh, don’t worry about it. SMG4: “Don’t worry about it”?! Do you have any idea what that dumbass can- E. Gadd: Shut up and let me explain. (He takes out a remote and presses a button, causing a TV to lower from the ceiling.) See, after your previous time related escapade, I decided to perform a study on time travel. Here’s what I found: (A straight line appears on the TV.) E. Gadd: This is our timeline. (The line gets labeled as “Main timeline”) E. Gadd: And here… (A point labeled as “Entry point” appears on the line.) Is where we are now. If some dumbass was to steal a time machine and travel back in time… (A badly drawn picture of Mario appears on the entry point and moves to the left.) He should end up here… (A new point, labeled “Presumed exit point” appears next to Mario.) correct? SMG4: [Is it not obvious?] E. Gadd: [Is it really that obvious?] See, what ACTUALLY happens is the very act of time travelling creates a new timeline, independent of ours. (A new line appears below the main timeline, labeled “New timeline”.) Our dumbass ends up in that timeline. (Mario suddenly falls from the main timeline to the new timeline.) E. Gadd: You see what I’m implying? SMG4: …I think I now know how Mario feels when I try to explain something… E. Gadd: (Sigh) What I’m trying to say is, he can do whatever he wants in the past, but we won’t see it, because we’re in the main timeline, and he’s in the new timeline. He could even end the world for all we care, nothing will happen to us. SMG4: Well, that’s a relief. Still, I’m definitely worried about the fate of this “new timeline”… (Meanwhile, in the past. Well, it can’t really be meanwhile if it’s in the past, but you get what I mean. While.) (Mario wakes up in the deserts of ancient Egypt.) Mario: [Ooh, my ass…] What the hell happened? And why is it so hot? (He gets up and takes a look around, seeing the Pyramids, under construction, nearby.) Mario: [OOPS! I’m in Egypt!] How did this happen?! (He takes another look around and sees the shovel, lying next to him. He picks it up.) Mario: It’s gotta be this thing! (He starts shaking it.) Bring me back, you stupid shovel! (Nothing happens. Angered by it, Mario throws it to the ground.) Mario: [Useless fucking piece of shit!] (Suddenly, he hears a voice behind him.) ???: [STOP RIGHT THERE!] (He turns around and sees a bunch of police officers with Egyptian hats.) Leader: Who are you, and what are you doing here?! Mario: [Uhh… Meow?] Leader: He’s speaking the language of the gods! (All the officers immediately bow before him.) Mario: Alright, so- Officer 1: We need to take him back to the palace! Leader: [Yes.] (They all run up to Mario.) Mario: [Waitwaitwai-] (They pick up both him and the shovel, before heading off towards the pyramids.) (Later.) (Mario gets brought into what looks like a throne room, with a pharaoh sitting on a fancy looking throne. The officers then drop him on the floor.) Leader: Look what we found in the desert! Pharaoh: This is the third time this week you bring some random guy from the desert before me. And while the extra workforce for that bigass triangle the aliens told us to build is appreciated, this one better be special. Leader: He’s speaking the language of the gods! Pharaoh: Oh really? Officer 2: Also, he had this thing with him. (He shows the shovel.) Looks pretty cool if you ask me. Pharaoh: Yeah, I guess it does. Put it in the vault. (The officer then leaves the room, carrying the shovel. Mario looks a bit distressed because of it.) Pharaoh: As for you… How about you show us that “godly language”, hmm? Mario: [Uhh… Meow?] Pharaoh: (Gasp) IT IS TRUE! THIS GUY WAS SENT BY THE GODS! YOU’RE GONNA BE MY ADVISOR FROM NOW ON! Mario: …[Mamaf**ker!] (Some time later.) (The pharaoh is giving Mario a tour of his palace. They walk into a luxurious looking room.) Pharaoh: And this is where you’re going to sleep. (Mario looks around the room.) Mario: Huh… I might like it here after all. (Brief pauses as he notices some hieroglyphs, depicting Egyptian gods.) Mario: What is that supposed to be? Pharaoh: Oh, just some pictures of our gods. I’m not really sure why are they here though… (Mario inspects them closer, before freaking out.) Mario: I NEED TO GET OUT OF HERE! THOSE GUYS ARE FURRIES! (He dashes out of the room.) (Once in the corridor, he gets noticed by some guards.) Guard: [STOP RIGHT THERE!] (A chase ensues.) Mario: I need to find that shovel! They said something about a vault… (He runs past a map of the palace, before backing up and looking at it.) Mario: Huh. The vault is just below this place. The stairs are a bit further, but Mario knows a shortcut. (He jumps up and slams down, breaking through the floor. He lands in a room filled with diamonds and gold. He starts walking.) Mario: Alright, now to find the- (He steps on the shovel and it hits him in the face, knocking him out. A new time portal opens, and engulfs Mario with the shovel.) (Mario proceeds to wake up again. He takes a look around his surroundings, and realizes he’s in a dungeon cell. Some guy approaches it.) Guy: Finally awake, huh? Your fight begins soon. You should get going. Mario: Fight? (The guy opens the cell and two other guys show up from nowhere, give Mario a helmet and his shovel, and carry him to a door, before throwing him through it. A crowd cheering can be heard.) (A text saying “Ancient Rome, Coliseum” appears at the bottom of the screen. Mario looks at it and realizes what’s going on.) Mario: [Ahh… Piss.] (The door at the other side of the arena opens.) Announcer: In the blue corner we’ve got an old fan favorite! He’s big, he’s strong, and he’s got no equal in handling long poles! Give it up to… DICKUS DOMINUS! (An extremely buff guy carrying a spear shows up from the other side of the arena.) Dominus: [This is where the fun begins.] (The crowd goes wild.) Announcer: And in the red corner, we’ve got… THIS GUY WHO WE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS BY THE ROAD! Mario: [Hi guys!] (Silence.) Announcer: [LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE!] (Both Mario and Dominus run at each other. Suddenly, the scene changes to an RPG combat screen, with the “Player” controlling Mario. The options are “Attacc”, “Protecc”, “Magik”, and “Swag”. (Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxKb48wvt60 ) Mario (with a textbox): What the hell is going on?! (Attacc > Boring-ass jump > Dickus Dominus) (Mario then goes for a jump, dealing 5 points of damage.) (Dominus then uses a move called “Bouta whip somebody’s ass”, which causes him to say the appropriate voiceclip and increase his attack by 69%.) (Mario’s turn again. Swag > Virtual Boi (Mario puts on the Virtual Boy from earlier.) Dickus Dominus is scanned! HP: 1332 MP: 400 ATK: 318 DEF: 569 Master of the shaft) (Dominus’ turn again. This time he goes for a “Wild Thrust”, and tries to pierce Mario with his spear, but Mario dodges.) Mario: [Can’t touch this!] (Mario’s turn. Magik > STANDO POWAH > Ora Rush (Music changes to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jFaoLrLzd4 as Mario grabs a gun and proceeds to shoot himself in the head. Suddenly, Bowser appears next to Mario’s corpse and looks around, confused.) Bowser: Wait, where am I? How did I get he- (Suddenly, he steps on the shovel. Due to him being too tall, instead of in the face, it hits him in the nuts. He collapses to his knees and disappears while a new time portal forms and engulfs Mario yet again.) (Music ends.) (Mario wakes up once again, this time in a medieval town.) Mario: Ungh… Where am I this time? (Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R16cVvg2OyY ) (He takes a look around.) (The first thing he notices is a priest and a bunch of guys listening to him.) Priest: [Praise Jesus!] (Another look. He sees a guy being burned at the stake.) The guy: [I’m on fire!] (Yet another look. He sees a guy talking with a plague doctor.) The guy: So, my arm’s been feeling kinda numb lately… The doctor: Don’t worry. (He takes out a chainsaw.) I got just the thing. (The camera returns to Mario.) Mario: I think I’m back home! (Suddenly, a crusader on a horse shows up and approaches Mario.) Crusader: Get in, loser. We’re going crusading. Mario: Whaat? But I just got here! Crusader: Are you sure you want to oppose the king’s orders? Mario: [Yes! I am!] (Pause. Crusader takes out his sword.) Crusader: Then you must die, heretic. (Mario then looks around, before picking up a nearby rat and throwing it at his opponent. It hits, but doesn’t seem to do anything for the few seconds, before the crusader just dies instantly.) Mario: [A surprise to be sure, but a welcome-] (The crusader’s horse kicks him into a nearby house, causing him to drop his shovel again. Cue another time portal.) (Music ends.) (When Mario wakes up, he’s lying on a beach. He gets up and looks around.) Mario: Wait… Where’s the shovel?! (It flies out of the ocean and hits him in the head.) Mario: [Oof!] (Pause as he picks the shovel up again.) Mario: Wonder where am I this time… (The camera zooms out slightly, showing a big battle going on around him. A text saying “06.06.1944, Northern France” appears at the bottom of the screen. Mario looks down at it.) Mario: Oh. (Some soldier approaches him.) Soldier: What are you doing, soldier!? We need to secure the area! Come on, take this (He throws a rifle at Mario, almost knocking him out) and follow me! (The soldier then runs off and Mario follows him. As they run, various things can be seen in the background, such as a TF2 Spy backstabbing some guy, a soldier firing a Kamehameha, and a cyborg with a machinegun in his stomach.) (Cut to a nearby bunker, occupied by Na- G E R M A N Soldiers. Literally every word they speak is censored.) Soldier 1: They’re breaking through our defenses! What do we do, Hans? Soldier 2: I’m afraid there’s only one way, Wilhelm. We’re sending in the big one. Soldier 1: Are you sure? We’ve never tested- Soldier 2: Do it! (Wilhelm then presses a Nut button on a nearby control panel. The camera returns to Mario as the ground starts shaking.) Mario: What’s going on?! (Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pckrHxt9ks0 ) (Suddenly, a giant mech made out of tanks starts rising from the ground.) Soldier: So this is the secret weapon they warned us about… Mario: [Fuck this shit, I’m out!] (He runs off to the back.) (The mech starts wreaking havoc on the attacking army. After a short while, it fires at Mario, who gets thrown even further back. He manages to get up after landing, but the shovel then hits him again, knocking him out and opening a new time portal.) (Music ends.) (He wakes up in a forest. Before he can say or do anything, he hears a voice behind himself.) ???: Hands up or I’ll bust your ass! (Mario puts his hands up while also turning around.) Mario: It’s not- (He sees that the person threatening him is Bob, wearing a military helmet and carrying an assault rifle.) Mario: Wait, Bob?! Bob: How the hell do you know my name? (Realization.) Oh, you must be one of my fans! Don’t you know that Vietnam is dangerous at this time of year? Come on, let’s get you out of here! Mario: Did you just say Vietnam? (Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec0XKhAHR5I ) (A helicopter then lands next to the two. Bob jumps in.) Bob: Hop on! (Mario does as instructed and the chopper takes off.) (The camera changes to show the inside. Aside from some random soldiers and Bob, Wario is there as well.) Pilot: Alright guys, you did a great job today. Now let’s get back to base and- (The music suddenly cuts off as the helicopter gets hit by a missile and starts falling.) Wario: [OH MY GOD!] (And more screaming as the helicopter breaks apart, with everyone falling out, some manage to put on their parachutes, while others don’t. Bob just keeps floating in the air.) Bob: Haha, I can fly! (Mario lands in the jungle. He tries to get up, but his shovel hits him on the head, opening a new time portal.) (He wakes up in a building. He starts exploring the corridors before coming accidentally stumbling upon a Nintendo business meeting.) Miyamoto: Alright guys, what do you think of this idea: an overweight plumber who jumps on turtles to get some royal ass. (Everybody claps.) Mario (offscreen): That’s stupid! Miyamoto: Huh? (Mario walks up to the meeting.) Mario: That’s the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard! Nobody would possibly buy a game like that! Miyamoto: Hmm… You might be right. Any other suggestions? Mario: How about you make a game about a very fast blue mouse? I’m sure that would be popular. Miyamoto: [Fucking GENIUS!] (Realization) Wait, who even ARE you? Mario: Oh, I was just passing by. Miyamoto: So, you mean that you’re not allowed to be here? Mario: [Yes!] (Brief pause as they look at each other before cutting to Mario flying out of the window. He lands on the ground, gets up, and dodges the shovel falling down on him.) Mario: Not this time. (He then proceeds to step on the shovel and get hit in the face immediately after. A new time portal appears.) (When Mario wakes up, he’s in a building again.) Mario: Alright, what’s it gonna be this time? (A text appears at the bottom of the screen, saying “11.09.2001, New York”. Mario looks at it.) Mario: No. We’re not doing THAT. (He grabs the shovel and hits himself with it, causing it to open a new time portal.) (When Mario wakes up again, he’s in the White House. The entire room appears empty, except for a big red button that says “Do not touch” on the table. Mario approaches it, and inspects it for a few seconds. He then starts walking away… Before sprinting back and gently tapping the button.) Mario: [Touch.] (The button immediately lowers into the table as alarms start blaring.) Computer voice: Nuclear launch detected. Complete annihilation of the human race commences in 10… 9… 8… Mario: [OH SHIT!] (He looks around for the shovel, but he realizes he somehow lost it and starts freaking out. Suddenly, a new time portal appears and E. Gadd comes out of it, grabs Mario and heads back.) (They both then appear back in E. Gadd’s lab as the new portal, which is revealed to have been created with what looks like a giant laser cannon, disappears. SMG4 is there as well.) Mario: You saved me… E. Gadd: Shut up, where’s my shovel? Mario: Yeah… About that… (He then grabs a rat out of nowhere and throws it at E. Gadd, before running away.) Mario: [Run bitch, RUUUUUUN!] (SMG4 follows him as they both escape out of E. Gadd’s lab.)
[Casino Image] The massive construction project on the corner of Vinewood Park Drive and Mirror Park Boulevard is nearing completion, radically changing the skyline of Los Santos forever. When the brand-new Diamond Casino & Resort opens its doors, one and all are welcome inside to play, or just to stay in the most luxurious residence in the entire state. More than just a place to let go of your inhibitions and your sense of the passage of time, The Diamond is the one-stop destination for quality entertainment, high-end living and a range of experiences you won’t find anywhere else.
The Casino
[Roulette Table Image] If you're looking to dive into the action, the casino floor has a selection of activities to enjoy. Play against the house using Chips in Three Card Poker, Blackjack and Roulette. Slot Machines with a variety of prizes are also at your fingertips, while Inside Track offers a lounge to watch and cheer along with friends as the drama of virtual horse racing unfolds. Spin the Lucky Wheel in the lobby for chips, cash, and clothing or even the new Truffade Thrax supercar that can be found whirling on the podium during opening week. And be sure to check back each week to see what new high-end vehicle can be won. Check Rockstar Support for details and limitations. Guests looking to push the limits of high-end resort fashion can also choose from the carefully curated rotation of new clothing and accessories in the Casino Store.
The Penthouse
[Penthouse Image] Sitting atop The Diamond is an oasis of luxury for those shopping for a lavish pied-à-terre or just a feature-laden property in which to entertain friends. The Master Penthouse that sits beside the Roof Terrace with infinity pool and stunning views entitles the owner to VIP Membership status including access to VIP Lounges, High-Limit tables, plus a range of special services via the Penthouse phone including aircraft and limousine services and more. Renovate your residence with several upgradeable floorplans including a private Spa with a round-the-clock personal stylist, a Bar and Party area perfect for hosting raging Member Parties and featuring private retro arcade games, and a Media Room to enjoy games of Don’t Cross the Line and contemporary Vinewood cinema like Meltdown and The Loneliest Robot In Great Britain. As an owner, you can select the Penthouse’s color palette and patterns, and cement a place among the LS nouveau riche with a range of modern art from the Casino Store – from refined portraiture to pop art and daring modern sculpture – that can all be moved and placed around your property. With a Master Penthouse you’ll also become a member of The Diamond family, and the family business needs your attention. Help property owner Tao Cheng and The Diamond staff protect their investment from the clutches of a corrupt family of Texan petrochemical magnates in a series of all new co-operative missions. Each mission pays out special Awards for first-time completion and hosting the entire story thread will reward you with a highly coveted, brand-new vehicle free of charge. You can also pickup additional work and odd jobs to earn extra cash and chips with a quick phone call to the Diamond’s head of operations, Agatha Baker.
Check out this website. Seriously. It's a real website and it will give you a fantastic "in-character" look at what the update will bring. This website is better designed and more attractive than some real businesses' websites, believe me.
You've heard the rumors. You want to believe them, and there's only one way to find out. Abandon your preconceptions. Let go of your inhibitions, your doubts, your sense of proportion, your credit rating. The rumors didn't begin to do it justice. Welcome to The Diamond. Grand Opening July 23.
The Diamond is everyone’s playground. Invest in a Standard Membership today and you’ll be a lifelong partner in our project to meaningfully raise the standard of living for the one percent.
VIP Membership
At The Diamond, there are members, and there are members. And if you want to be the latter, you’re only a penthouse key away from enjoying the kind of status that only systemic elitism can provide. Experience Preeminence
Parking Garage
This is not merely a garage. It’s not merely a maximum security, subterranean storage unit. Think of it as an air-conditioned, custom-built, expertly curated museum, where our clients can admire each other’s collections in peace and comfort. Experience Accidents
Valet
Step out of our front door, right into your front seat: our valets are available 24/7, and are trained to never to look in the trunk, never to open the glove compartment, and never to ask questions. Experience Incontinence
Champagne Service
Our client code of conduct states that if any member is seen ordering a bottle of our finest champagne, spraying half of it over the most exclusive clientele in the state, and downing the rest straight from the bottle, our security teams are obliged to loudly applaud. Experience Turbulence
Aircraft Concierge
Going up? Let our concierge service take care of all your pre-flight checks, so you can step right into the cockpit with the engine ready for takeoff. Experience Maintenance
Cleaning Service
We recruit our housekeepers from the most respected crime scene cleanup teams in the state. There is no bodily fluid or potentially infectious material they can’t remove in the time it takes you to find an alibi. Experience Convenience
Limousine Service
Leaving The Diamond can be a traumatic experience, but we know how to cushion the blow. Our resident guests can order a Diamond Limousine to take them almost anywhere in the state, free of charge. Experience Irrelevance
Members Party
Why go to the party, when the party can come to you? If you’re one of our resident members, you only need to click your fingers and we’ll provide the drinks, the music, and the dozens of close personal friends. Experience Flatulence
VIP Lounge
Available exclusively to our resident members, this is the inner sanctum of indulgence, the apex of affluence, the pinnacle of privilege, the high point of high society. Experience Arrogance
High Limit Tables
Welcome to the grown-up table: resident guests are entitled to play in our high-limit suites.
A penthouse at The Diamond is not just a palace. It’s your palace. If you want a private spa, you can have it. Home cinema? Consider it done. Your own personal bar, private arcade cabinets, and office space? Just say the word: Diamond. Experience Prominence
Master Bedroom
Silk sheets, fresh air bottled on the summit of Mount Chiliad, and round the clock access to the greatest roof terrace in Los Santos. Experience Adolescence
Spare Bedroom
We all have that one friend. With a spare bedroom, they’ll have somewhere to crash that isn’t your bidet, and with access to their personal wardrobe they won’t have to keep borrowing your clothes. Experience Fragrance
Spa Room
Your private spa comes with a round-the-clock personal stylist and a hot tub infused with extract of jojoba and a dissociative anesthetic. Experience Interpretive Dance
Bar & Party Area
Why go to a night club, when a night club can come to you? The most exclusive venue in town is the one where you’re in charge of the guest list. Experience Incompetence
Arcade Games
Time to dig out the high-waisted jeans and the fluorescent headband: Diamond Casinos have the exclusive rights to classic arcade games Invade and Persuade II and Street Crime: Gang Wars Edition. Experience Correspondence
Office
Sometimes you need to take care of your affairs, but there’s no reason you should have to leave the lap of luxury to do it. All of our offices come with a gun locker and a hidden safe as standard.
Here, your dreams are reality, and your reality is a dream. Here, every whim can be satisfied, every fantasy fulfilled – no impulse control, no windows, no clocks, and no clearly labelled exits. Welcome to the Diamond standard. Experience Eminence
Table Games
Don't be fooled. Roulette, blackjack, poker - at The Diamond, these aren't games. Every card dealt, every spin of the wheel, every polished quip, every gasp of the crowd, every delusion of grandeur: this is art. Experience Overconfidence
Slot Machines
Here at The Diamond, we understand the fine art of the slot machine. We recognize the split-second reflexes, the years of research and training, the rock-solid intuition and the towering IQ that make a true master. That’s right. We’ve been waiting for you. Experience Subservience
Inside Track
Horse racing is the sport of kings, and Inside Track is the only way to experience it – the drama, the majesty, the excitement, the perfectly simulated aroma of freshly cut turf and hot manure - all without leaving the comfort of a bespoke, air-conditioned suite. Experience Tumescence
Lucky Wheel
Some people say that fortune favors the brave. Here at The Diamond, we’d rather say that destiny favors those with a full membership. Spin the wheel once a day, and you’re guaranteed a massive dose of self-importance every time.
Exclusive fashion. Unique designer artwork. There are some things in life that money can’t buy. But don’t fret. Our in-house store offers a rotating selection of tastefully curated items that can be purchased with Chips.
The newly renovated casino is located at the racetrack in east Vinewood Hills, by the highway. It is owned by Tao Cheng.
Brucie is making a return as a character in this update
In the casino you can play a number of games, including:
Three Card Poker
Blackjack
Roulette
Slot Machines
Retro Arcade Games (?)
There is a wheel you can spin once per day in order to earn prizes like RP, GTA$, discounts, clothing, and even high-end vehicles.
There is a horse-racing and betting component, although it is unclear if it is only simulated and interacted with via the "Inside Track" room of the casino, or if the horse racing actually takes place in the game world, instanced or not.
The casino has a penthouse/residential component to it. Owners of the Master Penthouse can upgrade their residence with a private spa, a bar and party area, and a media room. Residents will also be able to spend chips on art and collectibles at the Casino Store which can be used to decorate the penthouse.
As a penthouse resident, you will get access to the business aspect of the casino, requiring you to work with Cheng to prevent a rich Texan family from taking over the casino. In addition to this storyline, you can do side jobs for the casino to earn GTA$ and chips.
The casino has a store that accepts chips as payment. You can use the chips to buy collectibles and decorations for your penthouse as well as clothing and accessories.
If you think I should add something to the summary, please let me know in the comments.
Also, if there is any other detailed information I can include elsewhere, I'd love to hear it. Particularly in analyzing the videos and screenshots and identifying new cars, etc.
Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried. On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences. So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings. (2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better. But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please. Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier. Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet. But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play? Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept. Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time. Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette. Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins. When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance. Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at. Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout. Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets. Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing. Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it. Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results. The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same. You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists. This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more. The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino. Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails. If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit. Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid. And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager. So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan. Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management. Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE. Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing. Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line. But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there. Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back. Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again. Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT. Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best. 6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case. The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines: -high frequency, low payout slots -low frequency, high payout slots In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts. This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going. The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine. At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips. This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing. But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster. In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates. Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away. 5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it. In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge. This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play. The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to. The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%. Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return. So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results. Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing. Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away. 4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet. Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts. There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that. Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine. This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%. The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet. So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour. My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can. To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it. This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better. Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge. Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose. 3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below. However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions. Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino: -The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle. -Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack. -No insurance offered, no surrender. -Dealer stands on soft 17. -Double down on any two cards. -Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed. -Seven-Card Charlie. Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice. But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that. The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace). When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not. But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize. The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it. Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard. Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit. Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20. If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment. But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies. Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong. As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop. 2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it. If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can. The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on. Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize. Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning. If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds. Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win. Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each. A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner. It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples. Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%? They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner. So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale. So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players. Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%. This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run. This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge. But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together. In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED. This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple. So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows: -Favorites: EVENS to 5-1 -Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1 -Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1 Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening. The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1. EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%. This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise. A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%, a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time, and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time. The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips. These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results. But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways. But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1. Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%. This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact. So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%, the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time, and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time. When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%! This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips. This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing. Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field. If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb: -Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it. -Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field. -To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips. But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong. It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race. Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side. To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum. I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it". User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play. Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it. With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value. So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time. 2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something. And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide. Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins. -A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work. -Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there. -Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker. -Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g). -Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite. -Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
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