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The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets. The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1. However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. Dollars
Firstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4. https://preview.redd.it/d4xalwdyz8p51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0556c6aa6b29016c9b135f3279e8337dfee2a6 https://preview.redd.it/wucg40kzz8p51.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=71257fec29b43e0fc0df1bf04363717e3b52478f This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate. https://preview.redd.it/6956j6f109p51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccea257a4e9524c11df25737cac961308b542b69 Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions. Source: Bloomberg Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto Dollars
Due to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13. https://preview.redd.it/3vq7v1jg09p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f11b5f5245a8c335ccc60432873e9bad2eb1e1 An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
Institutional Developments
In addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero. J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications. Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19. https://preview.redd.it/lgb1f2rw19p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=040bb0deed0499df6bf08a072fd7c4a442a826a0 These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
Future Opportunities
There is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation.Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry. There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish. In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world. Thank you. Reference: [1] How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia [2] The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist [3] Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath [4] Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers [5] Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS [6] Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider [7] McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company [8] Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates [9] Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC [10] Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters [11] Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis [12] The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg [13] Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com [14] Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes [15] New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk [16] Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank [17] Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan [18] Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News [19] Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS [20] Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
On July 14, 2020, join Binance as we kick off our third anniversary with one of the biggest blockchain events of the year. Get the latest news and updates on all things blockchain and crypto, and take an exclusive look at what’s coming next at our “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference, a blockbuster 10-hour live event with multi-regional programming that brings together 80+ influential speakers, including leading blockchain and crypto innovators, business and technology leaders, influential academics, and key policymakers. Expect to hear the latest insights on the blockchain ecosystem from some of the industry’s most prominent leaders and visionaries. Join our can’t-miss event with powerful talks, breakthrough panels, opportunities to win prizes, and much more. The “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference will feature five segments with spotlights on regions making a significant impact in the space: Europe & the UK, Asia-Pacific, Russia & CIS, Africa & Middle East, and North America & LATAM. Discover an array of keynotes, panels, and fireside chats, on these following themes and more:
Powering Crypto Growth: Local blockchain trends and evolving technologies that are transforming crypto awareness and adoption.
Crypto Meets Traditional Finance: Exploring opportunities for integrated and parallel development.
Blockchain and Global Health: Crypto’s appeal in today’s volatile environment.
Policy and Regulation: Spearheading community initiatives through cooperation and investment.
Trading Strategies and Technical Analysis: Training and insights to improve your trading.
Hear from these speakers and more:
Akon - Chairman & Co-Founder, Akoin
Cliff Liang - Director of Solutions Architecture, Amazon
David Ferrer Canosa - Secretary for Digital Policies, Government of Catalonia
Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
Oleksandr Bornyakov - Deputy Minister, Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine
Perianne Boring - Founder and President, Chamber of Digital Commerce
Changpeng Zhao (CZ) - Founder & CEO, Binance
He Yi - Co-Founder & CMO, Binance
Aarón Olmos - Economist, Olmos Group Venezuela
Alex Saunders - CEO & Founder, Nugget's News
Anna Baydakova - Reporter, CoinDesk
Anton Mozgovoy - Head of Product, Jthereum
Apolline Blandin - Research Lead, Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance
Beniamin Mincu - CEO, Elrond
Bobby Ong - Co-founder, CoinGecko
Brendan Eich - CEO & Co-founder, Brave Software
Bruno Diniz - Managing Partner, Spiralem Innovation Consulting
Calvin Liu - Strategy Lead, Compound Labs
Camila Russo - Founder, The Defiant
Carlos Rischioto - Client Technical Leader & Blockchain SME, IBM
Carylyne Chan - Interim CEO, CoinMarketCap
Catherine Coley - CEO, Binance.US
Charles Hayter - CEO, CryptoCompare
Charles Hoskinson - Founder, Cardano
Charlie Shrem - Host, UntoldStories.Com
Chimezie Chuta - Founder, Blockchain Nigeria User Group
Darius Sit - Partner, QCP Capital
David Ferrer Canosa - Secretary for Digital Policies, Government of Catalonia
Denis Efremov - Investment Director, Da Vinci Capital
Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
Eric Turner - VP, Market Intelligence, Messari
Erick Pinos - Americas Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
Ernesto Contreras Escalona - Head of Business Development, Dash Core Group
Eugene Mutai - CTO, Raise
Genping Liu - Partner, Vertex Ventures
Hany Rashwan - CEO, 21Shares AG
Harry Halpin - CEO, Nym Technologies
Hongfei Da - Founder, Neo
Igor Runets - CEO, BitRiver
İsmail Hakkı Polat - Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Lecturer, Istanbul Kadir Has University
Jamie Burke - CEO, Outlier Ventures
Jiho Kang - CEO, Binance.KR
John Izaguirre - Europe Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
John Khenneth Parungao - COO, SwipeWallet, Inc.
Jon Karas - President & Co-Founder, Akoin
Jorge Farias - CEO, Cryptobuyer
Joseph Hung - Director of Market Strategy, Klaytn
Joseph Lubin - CEO, ConsenSys
Juan Otero - CEO, Travala.com
Justin Sun - Founder, TRON & CEO, BitTorrent
Kristina Lucrezia Cornèr - Managing Editor & Head of Features, Cointelegraph
Ken Nakamura - CEO, GMO-Z.com Trust Company
Konstantin Goldstein - Principal Technical Evangelist, Microsoft
Kyle Samani - Managing Director, Multicoin Capital
Thamim Ahmed - Researcher, University College London
Tom Lee - Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors
Tyler Spalding - CEO, Flexa
Veronica Wong - CEO, SafePal
Viktor Radchenko - Founder, Trust Wallet
Winpro Yan - Chief Editor, Mars Finance
Yele Bademosi - CEO, Bundle Africa
Zhuling Chen - COO, Aelf Blockchain
Stay tuned as speakers and more themes are announced in the coming weeks! For more details, read our blog posthereand visit our event websitehere. During the livestream, we will be holding special #BinanceTurns3activities for viewers and giving away limited-edition prizes, swag, and collectible NFTs at various points throughout the livestream. Availability is limited! Register today! Binance Awards 2020 Join Binance as we celebrate the standout innovators and businesses that have made sizable contributions, both to our community and to our blockchain ecosystem. Winners will be announced during our live event, and results will be published on our blog afterwards. Register on Eventbrite today and tune in to the “Off the Charts” Virtual Conference on July 14, 2020, from 9:00 AM to 7:00 PM (UTC). -------- Thank you to our partners for helping make this event possible!
The Day Advances | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - January 2020
The day advanced as if to light some work of mine Thoreau, Walden This is my thirty-eighth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $813 282 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 802 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $83 162 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 472 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $178 121 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $34 965 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $272 399 Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 046 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $8 970 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 492 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $106 701 Secured physical gold – $17 252 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $14 755 Bitcoin – $153 530 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $18 365 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 534 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477 Total portfolio value: $1 873 325 (+$94 067) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.8% (2.2% under) Global shares – 22.6% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.1% Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under) Total shares – 70.9% (4.1% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.5% International bonds – 9.5% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 6.6% Bitcoin – 8.2% Gold and alternatives – 14.8% (4.8% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments This month saw exceptional growth in the portfolio, with a net increase of $94 000 after a small fall last month. [Chart] This is the fastest growth in the past half year. It is also the second largest absolute increase in over three years of measurement. [Chart] As the histogram below - which counts the frequency of occurrences in a specified range of monthly value changes (with red denoting losses) - makes clear, this is one of the most positive outcomes in the three year record. [Chart] The sources of portfolio growth were generally buoyant global and Australian share markets. Just under half of the growth was also due to an increase in the price of both gold securities and Bitcoin. In addition, even bond holdings increased in value over the period. Distribution payments from the Vanguard retail funds, as well as the exchange-traded funds VAS, VGS and A200 were made through this month. These totalled around $14 000 and have begun to be gradually fed back into the portfolio. This is a process which will occur through to June - with new investments twice per month. So far this has led to additional purchases in Vanguard's Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) to maintain the target allocation of Australian equities making up 60 per cent of all equity holdings. The bond allocation of the portfolio continues to be notionally under its target, but has not yet reached a position where further balancing investments are warranted. Fully excluding the value of Bitcoin, for example, it still sits on its target allocation of 15 per cent of the portfolio. If the same calculation is done for equities, they sit just above their target, at 77 per cent, and have drifted higher since early last year. Over the past months my position has been to take no portfolio balancing actions based purely on the volatile value of Bitcoin over time, and this remains my approach. There is no perfect answer to this issue - assigning no value to Bitcoin and ignoring it for asset allocation purposes is inconsistent with its role in the portfolio. Pushing either equity or bond allocations sharply out of target boundaries merely due to short-term Bitcoin movements is also not warranted. Taking a backcast 'moving average' approach might be one statistical solution, but I am not yet convinced it would do more than moderate the appearance of the issue. While expenditure has been higher over the holiday period, on average the gap between the rolling three-year average of distributions and credit card expenditure continues to close, and sits at just over a $300 per month gap at present. Flags of convenience - estimating hedging in the portfolio This month, out of a curiosity carried over from my recent review of my bond holdings, I have found the time to review of the overall currency hedging position of the portfolio. There are some excellent online research papers (pdf) and blog pieces, such as this one from Passive Investing Australia, for those interested in learning more about some of the associated issues. Currency risks have never previously been an object of much detailed thought on the journey. Rather, I had tracked a basic measure of broader exposure to foreign assets (including foreign equities, property securities, gold and more recently Bitcoin). The additional issue of whether my exposure to these assets was unhedged (meaning exposure to gains and losses from the relative movement in the Australian dollar and the foreign currencies) or hedged was not really front of mind. I suppose I had a dim awareness that some elements of the Vanguard retail funds that have until recently dominated the portfolio were hedged (for example, around 30 per cent of the Vanguard High Growth Diversified funds equity position is currency hedged), and judged that there was likely a well-considered rationale behind the amount of this hedging. The first step to understanding where any exposures exist is to understand and measure the current state of affairs. As of today, this is broadly as set out below:
Around 35 per cent of all portfolio assets are effectively unhedged - This includes Bitcoin, unhedged gold holdings, and unhedged international equities and bonds. All other things being equal, if the Australian dollar falls, the value of this part of the portfolio rises in relative terms.
The remaining 65 per cent of assets are either hedged or Australian-held assets - This includes Australian equities, Australian bonds, as well as international equities and bonds hedged back to the Australian dollar.
International equities are partially hedged - The portfolio has around $525 000 in international equities currently. Of this, around $140 000 is hedged back into Australian dollars - a hedging position of 27 per cent.
International bonds are nearly fully hedged - consistent with their portfolio role and discussed here.
The decision to invest in Vanguard's International Shares ETF (VGS), which is unhedged, is a significant event in this regard. The chart below shows the overall level of currency hedging in the international equity portfolio. Investments in VGS commenced from July 2019, and have started to affect the level of hedging. [Chart] As future contributions flow into VGS - absent any other action - a historically quite stable level of hedging will continue to fall. So far this is just a trend I am monitoring, until I have completed more research and thinking on the best approach in this area. There are many complicated, and some unknowable, issues to consider and balance in hedging decisions, such as the likely denomination of future costs, and the historical and future relationships between domestic currencies and equity markets. None avail themselves of short or easy answers. Until I have thought my way through them more fully, I remain hesitant to make any definitive decisions. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio Objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 85.2% 115.9% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.9% 141.4% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 83.3% 113.3% Summary This month has seen rapid progress, propelling the portfolio closer to both old and new goals. The portfolio gains this month have already closed nearly half of the additional distance created by increasing my portfolio target at the beginning of the year. The psychological forward push from distributions performance across 2019 (including, pleasingly, seeing it recognised here) has added to this sense of momentum. Additionally, this month I have also crossed the threshold to the target portfolio size needed to achieve 'credit card FI', a long-standing measure I have tracked. The long summer break that has just ended in some ways seemed like a foretaste of what some versions of financial independence could feel like. With the minimum of planning there was time to read, rest, exercise and write largely as I pleased. Returning to work following this has been infused with an unusual sense of being a temporary visitor in a new workplace. There is a greater philosophical detachment, in observing its rituals and rhythms, and less of a desire to seek to shape or resist its minutiae. Rather, what I have focused on is seeking to more deliberately make use of the freedoms it does not constrain, and pursue the best and most interesting use of the time that is outside of work hours. Through these recent strong Australian and US equity markets, this article has been a useful reminder of the 'survivorship' risks of focusing a FI target too narrowly on past performance. This excellent recent piece from Aussie HIFIRE has also, from another direction, usefully focused on separating out the decisions that do, and do not, materially matter in planning and executing on a passive indexing strategy over the long-term. For a challenging and entirely heterodox view on the potential long-term movement of equity markets upwards from here, this article has been thought-provoking. Finally, this month I have been discovering the Jolly Swagman podcast, which has long and fascinating interviews with the ex-head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Nobel Prize winning US economist Robert Shiller speaking on bubbles and narrative economics. During the long restful hours of summer break, the day has advanced. Though clouds may come in time, as the year starts - at least - the way forward looks bright. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
In this week's Mr Robot episode, Darlene sits on a park bench with Dom, and distributes the money she stole from the Deus Group to everybody, evenly. I timed the transaction as it happened in the show. It was 24 seconds, between her hitting return and seeing the following message on her screen: "*Transfers Complete. All Wallets Updated*" This processing time includes a message that says, "cleaning coins through crypto tumbler". It took 1 minute and 16 seconds for the transaction to tumble, process, and for the recipients to begin to get notices that they received money in their accounts. If you have worked with bitcoin, you know that cryptocurrency does not work like this. Transferring money is a slow and sometimes expensive process, as transaction fees eat into every transaction. I know that eCoin isn't necissarily bitcoin, because it's controlled by eCorp, but it's fun to think about what happens if eCoin works like bitcoin does today... How much money was transferred? According to Forbes, the most wealthy people in the world are worth a combined $8.7 trillion, or $2.7 trillion. It depends on which Forbes list you are looking at. On the actual Forbes web site, they say the richest people in the world are worth $8.7 trillion, but they do not state how many of the richest people in the world are worth that much. If you look at sites like Victor Media, they publish a table of the 100 most wealthy people, and say they got the list from Forbes. They probably did purchase the list from Forbes. If I put the Victor Media list into excel, and add all the values in the net worth column, that number comes out to $2.7 trillion. So Forbes might be talking about a list that is more than the top 100 people, and sell the top 100 people list to sites like Victor Media? I don't know. Either way, we are talking about somewhere between $2.7 and $8.7 trillion. How many people did the money go to? That's complicated. There was no global montage showing people celebrating all over the world (which I found a little surprising, even though I still love how this episode was shot). The only indication of a truly global transfer, to every individual in the world, is a TV screen in the airport saying that, "Global eCoin Payout... Deus group collapses as wealth spreads around the world." So Darlene could have sent the money to every individual with an eCoin wallet in the world, or she could be sending them to every American, or to everybody in the developed world. I doubt the average rice farmer in Indonesia is really using eCoin, but it's possible. If she only sent it to every American, our wealth tends to spread around the globe pretty fast, so that's possible, too. Lets work with World Bank population numbers for all three of these possibilities... World Population: 7.6 billion people Global North (AKA the developed world): 1.24 billion people United States: 327 million people So we have 6 possibilities for how much money was sent to each person...
People
Total Money
Money Per Capita
Satoshis
7.6 billion
$2.7 trillion
$355.53
4,739,471
1.21 billion
$2.7 trillion
$2230.82
29,741,808
327 million
$2.7 trillion
$8252.65
110,079,512
7.6 billion
$8.7 trillion
$1145.60
15,279,332
1.21 billion
$8.7 trillion
$7188.22
95,883,716
327 million
$8.7 trillion
$26591.89
355,275,242
How much would this transaction cost with bitcoin? Aside from the fact that eCoin probably functions differently than bitcoin, this is a very complex question. I'm definitely not as sure about these numbers as the other numbers I have, but I'll do my best to come up with useful, realistic numbers. If you are more familiar with the block chain than me, please correct me. The coins were taken from 100 different Deus Group accounts. Lets say each transaction launders through a bitcoin tumbler 1,000 times. I'm going to ignore transaction fees for the tumbling process, because I don't fully understand the details of tumbling, but 1,000 times seems reasonable to me. That means that there are 100 x 1,000 = 10,000 inputs in any transaction that spends all the money from the Deus group. For outputs... for simplicity's sake, I will make the conservative assumption that everybody has one eCoin wallet. That means somewhere between 327 million and 7.6 billion outputs. Accounting for everybody having multiple wallets would make the transaction even bigger, but this is a good starting point to get a feel for what this transaction would look like, in the real world. How long will this transaction take to process? There is a bidding process and a bit of politics involved in processing a cryptocurrency transaction. For simplicity, I'll assume we bid enough that this transaction gets priority treatment from the bitcoin miners. According to blockchain.com, transactions happen on the block chain at a rate of roughly 3.5 transactions per second. At that rate, the tumbling would take roughly 48 minutes, rather than the few seconds it took for Darlene to tumble this money. According to buybitcoinworldwide.com's fee calculator, here are the transaction sizes, the transaction fees involved (in US Dollars), and the time it would take at 3.5 transactions per second...
Inputs
Outputs
Size
Cost
Time
10,000
7.6 billion
240.4737 Gb
$38,884,280.55
68.85 years
10,000
1.21 billion
38.32587 Gb
$6,192,571.09
10.96 years
10,000
327 million
10.35582 Gb
$1,673,260.46
2.96 years
So this transaction would take years to go through, and it pays Evil Corp somewhere between $1.6 and $38 million. In the real world, most of that money would go to Chinese bitcoin miners. What would the impact be? A one time windfall of $327 per capita would probably not trigger hyperinflation in America. The largest payout we calculated was $26.5k, and I doubt that would cause hyperinflation, either. Regular inflation? Yes. Hyperinflation? Probably not. It might lead to hyperinflation in other countries, though, because of differences in purchasing power. Purchasing power parity is a number that describes the differences in the cost of goods and services around the world. $5 in America will buy you a big mac, but if you go to, say, Indonesia, you can buy a lot more with that $5, because Indonesia is full of people who make something like 25 cents a week. OECD.org publishes PPP (purchasing power parity) numbers for countries all around the world. If you want to know how far your dollar will stretch, on average, in a foreign country, consult this list. If you have $100 in America, you can expect it to be worth $100 worth of American goods and services, so on the OECD table, it has a PPP of 1.0. If you take that $100 to, say, the UK, where the PPP is 0.7, you can expect that $100 to be worth $70 worth of goods and services. If you take that $100 to Australia, where the PPP is 1.48, you can expect that $100 to buy roughly $148 worth of goods and services. If Elliot and Darlene were genius economists, I might expect them to account for PPP in their payout. They would have to be geniuses, to predict what PPP is doing after events like the 5/9 hack, because their best data would be out of date, so they would have to use all kinds of fancy regressions and tricks to figure out how that would work in such a volatile world economy. They definitely aren't economists, though, so I'll assume they sent the same nominal amount to everybody. So what's the range on how much purchasing power this transaction gives people around the world? In 2018, the highest PPP number on the OECD list is Indonesia, with a PPP of 4,245.613140. The lowest PPP on the list is Lithuania, with a PPP of 0.457582. Lets see how this shakes out in each of these countries...
$ Per Capita
Lithuania (0.46)
Indonesia (4,245.61)
$355.53
$162.68
$1,509,442.84
$2,230.82
$1,020.78
$9,471,198.70
$8,252.65
$3,776.26
$35,037,559.28
$1,145.60
$524.20
$4,863,774.41
$7,188.22
$3,289.20
$30,518,401.29
$26,591.89
$12,167.97
$112,898,877.60
What would this cause? People might predict a lot of different things. The Yang gang people probably strong opinions on this. I have a bachelor's degree in economics, so I believe I can predict that most mainstream economists would predict the following... In Lithuania, when they get a few hundred to a few thousand dollars, they probably raise a pint to F Society, then put the rest towards a house or car payment, or buy themselves something nice. Minor inflation would happen, probably starting at the pubs, and that would worry financial types, but it would not cause any kind of major economic catastrophe. In Indonesia, where everybody becomes an asset millionaire overnight, they will probably have hyperinflation, mass social upheaval, and violence. In conclusion... TL;DR: What Darlene did last night with eCoin isn't actually possible with bitcoin, and the impact in America might not be as great as you think, but the impact would be much bigger in poorer parts of the world.
The below is the text from my latest blog post about bonds, if you want to see the original with pretty pictures, charts, graphs etc then click on this link. Ok, the title is an obvious dad joke, but as it happens it still fits in with my naming convention for posts so happy days! On to more serious stuff. The most common proposed asset allocation for people pursuing FIRE seems to involve having absolutely as much invested in equities (or to a lesser extent property) as possible, and reducing every other asset class to as little as possible. Which is certainly one way of doing things, and given the great performance of shares and property over the last 20 years or more there is an argument to be made for doing things this way. It’s certainly not the only way of doing things though, and I will be trying to show why there is a case to be made for investing some money in other asset classes, in particular Fixed Income aka Bonds. So what are bonds? Bonds are a type of debt that is issued by governments, semi-government organisations, and corporations, so basically you’re lending them money. In Australia we also have what are called hybrid securities, but they’ve got some big enough differences that I’ll talk about them in a future post (probably). Bonds are also one of those fun areas where there is an exception to every rule, so although what I’ve written below is broadly accurate there is always going to be some type of bond or a specific issue that breaks one of the rules. So please don’t be an internet hero and “well ackshually” me about premium redemption/issue bonds, soft calls, hard calls, investor puts, floaters, PIK notes and all the rest of it because broadly speaking it isn’t going to make much difference for the purposes of explaining bonds. Basically play nice readers! Talk numbers to me… Bonds are all about math. As I’m sure regular readers of this blog can imagine this makes me very happy, and probably explains in part why I spent a large part of my career working in an area where understanding bonds was crucial, although to make things more interesting we added on a bunch of other stuff like equity options, credit derivatives, FX etc. The main numbers to think about are the price you paid for the bond, the coupon on the bond, the yield on the bond, the time to maturity, and the maturity value of the bond. From those main numbers we also derive a bunch of other numbers I’ll talk about later. Bonds are normally issued at a price of 100, with a fixed coupon (interest payment based on the maturity value of the bond) and a fixed maturity value at a known maturity date. So that’s 4 of the numbers covered already, happy days! A lot of the time though you’re not going to be buying that bond when it is issued, you’ve buying it when it’s already trading in which case chances are pretty good you didn’t pay 100 for the bond. Buying it along the way doesn’t affect the coupon or the redemption amount at maturity or when it matures. What it does affect though is the yield. There are a bunch of different yield measures but I’m going to go with yield to maturity, ie what yield (return) will you get if you hold the bond to maturity. It’s not a perfect analogy, but one way to think about bonds is that they’re like a term deposit where the amount that you can buy it for moves around. If you buy a bond for $10,000 that is going to mature in a year and it has a 2% coupon and redeems for $10,200 (redemption price plus coupon payment), then your yield (2%) is the same as your coupon (2%). But if interest rates have changed and so the price of the bond has changed and you buy that bond for $9,900 or $10,100, then your yield will be different from your coupon, either 3% or 1% respectively. Hopefully that makes sense? BTW I’ve rounded the numbers here to try and keep it nice and simple. Most bonds pay interest on a semi annual basis (I used an annual payment in the example above to make things easier) so to figure out how much interest you get when it gets paid it’ll be the coupon divided by two. Hopefully all of that makes sense, if not let me know in the comments. Issuers of Bonds As I said above the main issuers of bonds are governments, semi government organisations, and corporations. Debt issued by governments is generally the safest type, because so long as they control the printing press then they can always print more money to pay you back. The Eurozone is a bit of an exception to this (understatement of the year) but in most of the other major sovereign bond markets like the US, Australian, the UK etc it’s true. Emerging markets are a bit different because they often issue debt in USD, which means that if things go pear shaped then they can’t just print more money to pay off bondholders. There can also be issues with getting your money back from sovereigns if they have too much debt, such as when they either don’t control the printing press (Greece) or the bond is issued in a different currency (Argentina) but for the most part if you lend money to a developed country in their own currency then you can pretty reliably count on getting your money back. There are also bonds issued by semi government organisations like the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development etc, these are slightly less safe for the most part but you’re still not taking on much risk of not getting your money back. Debt issued by corporations is riskier, partly because businesses obviously can’t just print more money to pay you back, and because corporations can and do go bust. Sure it doesn’t seem likely that Telstra or Woolworths or the big banks are going to blow up any time soon, but there are plenty of other bond issuers out there with much more fragile finances. As you would expect the more risk you are taking on the more return you want in order to be compensation for doing so. This is because unlike a term deposit the value of your capital isn’t protected. If you put $10,000 into a term deposit for a year with an interest rate of 2%, then you know that in a year’s time you will get back that $10,000 plus $200 in interest. If for some reason the bank you invested that money through goes bust, the government will make you whole (up to the value of $250,000 per entity per approved deposit institution. If you invest in a corporate bond and the company goes bust, well you’re probably not going to get all or maybe any of your money back. The good news is that you’re more likely to get money back than equity holders, but if the debts of the company are a lot more than the assets then you’re going to be in trouble. There’s a clear framework for what happens if a company goes bust and who gets paid first and in how much etc, the short version of this is that equity holders are absolutely last in line but depending on what type of bonds you own you may not be a meaningful better position either. And unlike a stock, when you own a bond you don’t own a piece of the issuer of the bond, you just own part of their devt. So if the company does great and starts making a fortune, you as a bondholder don’t get paid any more than what the terms of the bond state. Basically you can get a fair chunk of the downside and none of the upside beyond the terms of the bond. On the plus side this doesn’t happen particularly often, most of the time you’ll get what you were promised Bond ratings Now obviously some companies are more secure and stable than others. If you take a bond from the biggest company in the ASX200 which is CBA, then it’s more likely to fulfil the terms of the bond than whatever the 200th company is. That’s not to say the 200th company won’t, just that there is more risk. The actual degree of this risk is quantified in a couple of different ways. First of all there are ratings agencies out there who will assign a rating from anywhere to super safe (AAA) to D (in default) with a bunch of graduations in between. Anything rated from AAA to BBB- is what is called Investment Grade (IG), everything below that is called High Yield (HY) or less politely Junk. Just because a bond is IG doesn’t guarantee it will pay off, likewise something which is HY isn’t guaranteed or even likely to fail. For the most part though the different ratings given tend to play out that way in the real world, with far less defaults for bonds rated AAA vs bonds rated BB for example. The big three ratings agencies are Standard & Poors (S&P), Moodys, and Fitch, and between them they’ll rate most of the bonds and/or issuers. They tend to be fairly backward looking in my opinion, and they were hugely and obviously wrong on rating mortgage backed securities back in the GFC. Still, they will generally give you a reasonable idea of the creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Because bonds are also traded in the marketplace you can take the yield offered on a bond with a particular maturity, compare it to an equivalent government bond, and using some fun math (yeah baby!) back out a credit spread which that bond trades over treasuries (or swaps but I’m not going to get into that). The higher the spread, the higher the perceived risk of the bond, and vice versa of course. Are bonds safe? Well it kinda depends on what you mean by safe. If you mean are the bonds likely to deliver what the issuer of the bonds promised, then generally yes. As I said with government and semi government bonds you will almost certainly get all your coupons and the maturity value of the bonds delivered on time. Yeah, there are some exceptions to this but you’re unlikely to run into trouble with Australia, the US, the UK, the more economically sensible members of the Eurozone etc. Similarly with corporates the vaast majority of the time you will get your money back on investment grade bonds, and it’s pretty rare to not get your money back on high yield bonds as well. That’s not to say it doesn’t happen, but it doesn’t happen much. If you mean am I going to get back what I put into the bond, well no they’re not necessarily safe, particularly if you sell before maturity. Remember when I said bonds are kinda like term deposits that can trade? Well when they trade those prices move around, and they can move around a lot! Why do bond prices move? There are a bunch of reasons why bond prices move around, the main ones are changes in the interest rate environment, changes in economic conditions, and changes specific to the issuer of the bond. We’ll talk about interest rates first. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with bond yields, which is a fancy way of saying if interest rates (yields) go down then bond prices go up. How much do they go up? Well that depends on the magnitude of the change in rates, and a bunch of factors involving the bond. Basically the longer till maturity on the bond, and the lower the coupon on the bond, the more sensitive it will be to changes in interest rates. This is measured using modified duration and convexity. Modified duration takes into account the timing of the cashflows of the bond (so coupons and maturity) and gives you a number which is typically a little less than that number of years to maturity, the higher the coupon the more it decreases the modified duration. If you multiply that modified duration by the change in interest rates in percentage terms, it will tell you how much the bond price will move by (in theory at least). So if you have a modified duration of say 7.117, then for every 1 percent move in interest rates the bond price will change by 7.117 points. So if your bond price was previously 100 and rates moved down by 1%, then your bond should now be worth 107.117. Happy days! Conversely if rates moved up, well your bond is now worth 92.883. Not so happy days. I’ve used the [ASX bond calculator](http://%20https//www.asx.com.au/asx/research/bondCalculator.do) to give a couple of examples using the current Aussie 10 year bond. You can hopefully see below that by changing the yield on the bond from 1.5% to 1% the market price has gone from 116.87 to 121.83, roughly a 4.25% change in price for a 0.5% change in rates, so presumably the modified duration on the bond is about 8.5. To make things slightly more complex, that relationship isn’t fixed due to something called convexity. Instead of being a linear relationship, it’s actually a changing one (a curve rather than a line). Basically the more bonds prices move away from where they were issued the more that relationship will change. Then there are things like GDP numbers, employment numbers, consumer sentiment surveys, PMI surverys, and all sorts of other economic news which will potentially move bond yields around, generally pretty slightly but it really depends on how important that economic number is and how much of a change from expectations it is. On top of that for corporations changes in their own situations will have an effect on what their credit rating/spread is which will affect prices as well. If a company goes from being loss making to suddenly making a profit, then that’s going to be good for their credit and the bond price is likely to go up. Bad news like a profit warning will potentially mean a higher credit spread and lower price for the bond. There is also general investor appetite for risk, so if investors are happy to take on more risk in their asset allocation (risk on) then they will likely sell off lower risk assets like bonds and buy higher risk assets like equities and to a lesser extent property. If things change and they want to go risk off, then the reverse happens and money tends to come out of equities and into bonds. What happens to bonds if the stock market crashes or we have another GFC? A stock market crash is actually one of the more compelling reasons to invest in bonds. This is because when stock markets crash investors tend to put their money into asset classes where they feel a lot safer ie, bonds. The rationale is that getting your money back is now hugely important, and even more important is not losing all your money as you will in those horrible equities which you knew you should never have invested in but that horrible financial adviser talked you into. People. Are. Not. Rational. People panic. People sell assets which are going down in value even though they know they should be holding on for the long term. This applies not just to retail investors, but also to professionals who should know better. In the GFC I spent plenty of time talking to institutional investors with a long term time horizon (ie 5 or 10 years etc) who suddenly decided they had to get out because of bad one month performance. People will bail out if the proverbial is hitting the fan. I wrote a bit about my experiences with the GFC here, and believe me there are a lot of people who are not going to be as cool calm and collected as they think they will be. It’s very very very very (extra very for emphasis) important to note here that at this point in time investors will not be thinking that all bonds are much the same. When they are looking for somewhere to put their money that they now have after panic selling out of equities, they will park it in the safest place they can find, ie government bonds (aka treasuries). This will cause the price of those bonds to rise because of supply and demand. If they still want to take on some amount of risk then they might put some into investment grade bonds, again this will push the price up a bit. They will almost certainly not put money into high yield bonds, because those are risky and in a crisis will behave pretty similarly to equities, ie they will fall in value. If anything they will more than likely try to pull money out of HY bonds, pushing the price down. This excellent post really shows this in the below graph which shows the average performance of different types of bonds for a 10% or greater fall in the stock market (all of this is for the US but the same principle applies to Australia). It doesn’t work in every case, as shown below (same source), but in almost all cases of a big crash in equities, treasury and to a lesser extent IG bonds gave you a big positive return to help out. HY, not so much and in some cases actually gave you a worse performance than equities themselves. Please believe me when I say it is a huge help psychologically to have some of your investments going up when the others are going down, which to me at least is a great reason to have some money invested in bonds. You’ve convinced me, how much should I have in bonds? Ok so I’m probably being slightly optimistic here given the number of posts I see on reddit about how VDHG would be so much better if Vanguard got rid of that terrible 10% that’s invested in bonds and put it all in equities instead. It would be nice to think though that some people are now realising that come the next crash they too might not behave entirely rationally, and it sure would be nice to own some assets that are going to zig when the stock market zags, so to speak. On the off chance that I have actually convinced people, well it really comes down to your particular risk profile. This is going to be hard to believe for some people, but in the US the default portfolio for most investors is 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Looking at Oz , the default balanced investment option for most super funds over here are supposed to have something like a 70:30 split between growth assets (shares and property) and defensive assets (bonds and cash) although the reality is a long long way from that if you actually look into how they invest (that’s a discussion for another time though). So that maybe provides a useful starting point. I know that the average FIRE portfolio that gets talked about particularly from younger bloggers (who have likely never experienced a sustained down market) is pretty much 100% equities and property, maybe even leveraged up. Which is fine if you can hold on through the downturns, but not everyone can do this because it is extremely difficult to do psychologically. I wish them all the best of luck, but I am pretty sure that at least some of them will decide that it’s all too much and sell whenever we have the next crash. There are exceptions to the rule though. One of my favourite bloggers, and someone who I know thinks deeply about this sort of stuff, is the FI Explorer who has about 15% in bonds and 15% in defensive alternatives (gold and bitcoin) as per his latest portfolio update. Whilst I don’t like Bitcoin myself, or gold for that matter, he writes a good explanation about why he holds both here. I still don’t like either asset myself, but I recognise that I am not infallible, I could well be wrong about this, and certainly historically they have worked well as hedges. In any case the more important point here is that there is basically a 30% allocation to what would be regarded as defensive type assets. This is actually a bit over his actual target of 25% in defensive assets, but he probably sleeps just fine at night. I’m a little more aggressive in only having about 21% of my assets (excluding PPoR) in cash and bonds, but it’s not a huge difference. Both of us have been invested through stock market crashes and hopefully have come to realise that we are not the hyper rational investors that economists believe we are, and therefore it’s best to have a bit invested in stuff that will go up or at least hold it’s value when everything else is crashing. How do I buy bonds? You can buy bonds individually, but you tend to need to have a fair amount of money to do so and you can run into a lot of problems with liquidity, big bid/ask spreads etc, it’s hard to build up a diversified portfolio etc. I buy bonds the same way I buy stocks, ie via an ETF. Most of the major ETF providers have some variety of index ETFs tracking Treasury only or Treasury plus Investment Grade bonds, or you can buy HY stuff if you want. Personally I just use one ETF which has about 75% in treasuries and the rest in IG. There are also some actively managed bond funds out there, either as ETFs or managed funds. For the reasons I outlined above about bonds being a psychological safe harbour I personally would (and do) only invest in bonds which are likely to up in a crisis, but different strokes for different folks applies as always. Any more questions? I’ve only really scratched the surface here of talking about bonds, but at the same time I feel like it’s an overwhelming amount of information. If you have more questions then as always I’m happy to answer them in the comments! Do you invest in bonds? If you enjoyed this post and would like to read more like it then please subscribe!
List of some of the best Crypto Teachers/Influencers and Crypto exchanges/crypto trading tools for beginners
First of all, congrats, to be a part of the Bitcoin/Blockchain growth story. You are one of the early adopters in this space and hopefully, you will make the best out of it. The first thing to do is to make your mentors and follow them to get to know about the industry insights, who will always motivate you and prevent you from being scammed. Some of the mentors to follow on Twitter-
Andreas M. Antonopoulos - He is one of the first Bitcoin educators. In 2012 Antonopoulos became enamored with Bitcoin. He eventually abandoned his job as a freelance consultant and started speaking at conferences about bitcoin, consulting for startups, and writing articles free of charge.
Saifedean Ammous- is an economist and author focusing on bitcoin, who authored the first academic book on the economics of bitcoin, The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking, published by Wiley in 2018
After deciding the mentors and taking advice from them by following them, create an account on some good crypto trading exchanges just to know how an exchange works like what are the functioning/ how orders are placed, etc. List of some of the best crypto trading exchanges-
Binance - It is the largest crypto exchange in the world as per the trading volumes. User Interface is also very good. Recently they also announced their margin trading feature. They have a mobile app also available.
Bittrex - Its US-based exchange and it is operated by 3 security engineers from Amazon, founded in 2014. They don't have a mobile app for now.
Coinbase - It was founded in 2012 and they have crypto to fiat pairs available in 32 countries you can buy cryptocurrencies through your bank account.
Before going to trade with real money, I would recommend you to do some research, how crypto market works. According to the best of my understanding, you should apply some strategies, follow news/sentiments, charts, patterns of the coin. Some important tools/websites that can help you to build your strategies and gather all the possible information about the market-
Coingecko - Here you will find all the information of any coin like market cap, prices, dominance, social accounts, explorer at one place so that you can make informed decisions.
Trading View- It's an advanced Financial visualization platform where you can find any past chart with indicators to apply the best possible strategy, also you can take ideas from the leaders at the trading view.
SmartBotCoin - It's an automated tool that gathers all the information like news and sentiments through AI/ML at a single place and automates the process of backtesting, that can be helpful in making informed trading decisions.
Also, before going to trade with real money - you should have a solid trading plan that not only constitutes trading knowledge but also how you control your emotions, gaining confidence and how you manages your finances and risk. Best of luck!
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.  Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.  Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:  Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.  Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "  Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191102 (Market index 50 — Neutral state)
https://preview.redd.it/skq8bar2r6w31.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c2fae20cd1d9d670104ddb87c6cc80c5bbb345f Crypto Custody Firm Xapo Initiated 5 Whale Transfers On Nov 1 Citing data from the Bejijing-based blockchain security company Chainsguard, the Bitcoin network witnessed multiple whale transfers on Nov 1. At 21:10:38 UTC on Nov 1, Xapo, a Bitcoin custody service provider, has conducted five whale transfers with the largest amount within one transfer marking up to 20,000 BTC. The total number of moved BTC in these transfers records 65822.01. Many of these BTC originated from the transfers of 4,999 to 10,000 BTC collected by Xapo on the Bitcoin chain at 19:19:49 and 19:32:12 on the same day. One of the main BTC sources initiated by the address starting with 37whD5 was crypto exchange Bitstamp. Previously, the above-mentioned exchange announced that its custodian would change to BitGo. Otherwise, Bitstamp had a great transfer with more than 110,000 BTC involved on October 15. At 20:53:20 on Nov 1, the wallet address beginning with 3AdpZc initiated a transfer of 5000 BTC to the exchange Poloniex. After analysis, the source can be traced back to the coins accumulated by Poloniex in March 2016. Generally speaking, the whale transfer carried out by institutions comes from the needs of business or customers. Sometimes, it is only the planned wallet management. Utah To Facilitate Voting For Disabled Individuals Through Blockchains Recent reports indicate that blockchain technology will soon be used in Utah, as part of a trial project meant to allow disabled individuals to cast their votes. To put things into perspective, the local council and government of Utah have decided to allow blockchain-based voting via smartphones in the upcoming municipal election that will take place in November. The platform that disabled voters will be using for this election represents the result of a fruitful partnership between the Utah Country Elections Division, the National Cybersecurity Centre, Tusk Philanthropies and Voatz, a local voting app development company. Ethereum To Increase The Blocksize By 8x Ethereum is partially addressing the many complexities of sharding by simply increasing the blocksize from the equivalent of about 1MB every ten minutes to circa 8MB. Danny Ryan, the Ethereum 2.0 coordinator, publicly said: “We are making the blocks bigger based on recent research on safe block size and propagation times, so the data availability of the system is still > 1MB/s so you can still get similar scalability gains when doing things like ZKrollup and OVM.” ZK rollups are a hybrid scaling method that combines on-chain security and second layer networks through smart contracts and zero knowledge methods. OVM is the Optimistic Virtual Machine from Plasma, with both being more sort of on top of Ethereum’s public blockchain. During the first quarter of the year, Bitcoin was trapped inside a tight trading range, where major players began buying the fear of retail crypto investors and accumulating the asset at the lowest possible prices. Starting in the second quarter, the first-ever crypto asset rocketed up from that trading range, and went on a parabolic rally that didn’t stop until Bitcoin met former bear market resistance at $14,000 where it was rejected. After three consecutive red monthly candles in a row, October closed green and kept a potential bull flag formation on monthly price charts intact, giving bulls hope that the crypto asset’s 2019 rally isn’t totally finished. Review previous articles:https://medium.com/@to.liuwen
Encrypted project calendar（November 2, 2019）
Kambria (KAT)：02 November 2019 VietAI Summit 2019 Kambria joins forces with VietAI for the annual VietAI Summit, with top experts from Google Brain, NVIDIA, Kambria, VietAI, and more!ABBC Coin (ABBC):02 November 2019 One-on-one Servicer “Users will be provided with a new one-on-one service platform on Saturday.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 3, 2019）
Waltonchain (WTC):03 November 2019 Premining Application End “Application for SMN & GMN $WTA pre-mining ends at 17:00 on Nov. 3 (UTC+8).”
Encrypted project calendar（November 4, 2019）
Stellar (XLM)：04 November 2019 Stellar Meridian Conf. Stellar Meridian conference from Nov 4–5 in Mexico City.Cappasity (CAPP)：04 November 2019 Lisbon Web Summit Lisbon Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal from November 4–7.Aion (AION):04 November 2019 CASCON x EVOKE 2019 CASCON x EVOKE 2019 from Nov 4–6 in Toronto.ThoreNext (THX):04 November 2019 Migration/Swap Begins “4 Nov 2019 Migration/Swap/Issuance start Check Your email 1st Nov To facilitate a streamlined Process, we will use proprietary software…”Ocean Protocol (OCEAN):04 November 2019 Blckchn for Science Party “Join us on Monday for bottles and (data) models at the official Blockchain for Science afterparty at@betahaus“Factom (FCT):04 November 2019 Grant Deadline “Have an idea you’ve been itching to build using #FactomProtocol? Apply for a grant (the deadline is November 4th):”Winding Tree (LIF):04 November 2019 HackTravel London HackTravel London from November 4–6 in London.
Encrypted project calendar（November 5, 2019）
Nexus (NXS)：05 November 2019 Tritium Official Release “Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the day Tritium changed Distributed Ledger. Yes, this is an official release date.”NEM (XEM)：05 November 2019 Innovation Forum — Kyiv NEM Foundation Council Member Anton Bosenko will be speaking in the upcoming International Innovation Forum in Kyiv on November 5, 2019.TomoChain (TOMO):05 November 2019 TomoX Testnet “Mark your calendar as TomoX testnet will be live on Tuesday, Nov 5th!”aelf (ELF):05 November 2019 Bug Bounty Program Ends On Oct 24th, 2019 aelf’s biggest bug bounty will launch with a large reward pool. The event will run for almost 2 weeks.ICON (ICX):05 November 2019 Seoul Meetup “We are pleased to announce that the ICON x Steem DApp SEOUL MEETUP will be held in the ICON Lounge on November 5th.”Utrust (UTK):05 November 2019 Lisbon Meetup “We’re hosting a meetup for anyone interested in blockchain & crypto adoption! Industry leaders like Cointelegraph, BetProtocol & others…”Siacoin (SC):05 November 2019 Zurich Meetup “Join us Tuesday, Nov 5th in Zurich for a Sia meetup with CEO David, and devs Chris and PJ at@impacthubzurich.”OKB (OKB):05 November 2019 Simulation USDT Futures “NEW LAUNCH: The much-awaited $USDT-Margined Futures Trading will soon be available on #OKEx… Simulation launching Nov 5”
Encrypted project calendar（November 6, 2019）
STEEM/Steem:The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.KIM/Kimcoin:Kimcoin (KIM) Bitfinex will be online at KIM on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 (UTC).Nebulas (NAS):06 November 2019 Burn Deadline “Be sure to read this announcement & burn your $NAT by November 6th, 3:00p.m. (UTC+8, Beijing time).”Power Ledger (POWR):06 November 2019 Book Launch ATTN Perth Power Ledger community, we will be hosting renowned economist Ross Garnaut at our WA office for the launch of his latest book…
Encrypted project calendar（November 7, 2019）
XRP (XRP)： 07 November 2019 Swell 2019 Ripple hosts Swell from November 7th — 8th in Singapore.BTC/Bitcoin:Malta The A.I. and Blockchain summit will be held in Malta from November 7th to 8th.Waves (WAVES):07 November 2019 Joins Odyssey “#Waves is joining Odyssey… We’re kicking off on Nov. 7 at Polaris…”Komodo (KMD)and 1 other: 07 November 2019 Block Party Amsterdam Block Party Amsterdam in Amsterdam from 17:30–22:00.Horizen (ZEN):07 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 8, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.IOTX/IoTeX:IoTex (IOTX) will participate in the CES Expo on November 08TOP (TOP):08 November 2019 Mainnet Launch “So excited to announce that on November 8th, TOP Network will officially launch the mainnet…”OKB (OKB):08 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Valencia “Meet us at our next OKEx Talks in Valencia on 8 Nov with speaker Gustavo Segovia@sepu85who will look at the benefits of creating
Encrypted project calendar（November 9, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality:Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.HTMLCOIN (HTML):09 November 2019 (or earlier) Mandatory Wallet Update Mandatory Wallet Update: there will be a soft fork on our blockchain. This update adds header signature verification on block 997,655.
Encrypted project calendar（November 11, 2019）
PAX/Paxos Standard:Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference.Crypto.com Coin (CRO):and 3 others 11 November 2019 Capital Warm-up Party Capital Warm-up Party in Singapore.GoldCoin (GLC):11 November 2019 Reverse Bitcoin Hardfork The GoldCoin (GLC) Team will be “Reverse Hard Forking” the Bitcoin (BTC) Blockchain…”Horizen (ZEN):11 November 2019 (or earlier) Horizen Giveaway — Nodes Horizen Giveaway — Win Free Node Hosting! Entries before November 11th.
Encrypted project calendar（November 12, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13thBinance Coin (BNB)and 7 others: 12 November 2019 CMC Global Conference “The first-ever CoinMarketCap large-scale event: A one-of-a-kind blockchain / crypto experience like you’ve never experienced before.”Aion (AION)and 17 others: 12 November 2019 The Capital The Capital conference from November 12–13 in Singapore.Loom Network (LOOM):12 November 2019 Transfer Gateway Update “If you have a dapp that relies on the Transfer Gateway, follow the instructions below to make sure you’re prepared.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 13, 2019）
Fetch.ai (FET):13 November 2019 Cambridge Meetup “Join us for a@Fetch_ai#Cambridge #meetup on 13 November@pantonarms1.”Binance Coin (BNB)and 5 others: 13 November 2019 Blockchain Expo N.A. “It will bring together key industries from across the globe for two days of top-level content and discussion across 5 co-located events…”OKB (OKB):13 November 2019 Dnipro, Ukraine- Talks Join us in Dnipro as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour on 11 Nov.Centrality (CENNZ):13 November 2019 AMA Meetup “Ask our CEO@aaronmcdnzanything in person! Join the AMA meetup on 13 November in Singapore.”OKB (OKB):13 November 2019 OKEx Cryptotour Dnipro “OKEx Cryptour Ukraine 2019 — Dnipro” in Dnipro from 6–9 PM (EET).
Encrypted project calendar（November 14, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 BlockShow Asia Summit will be held at Marina Bay Sands, Singapore from November 14th to 15th.Binance Coin (BNB):and 4 others 14 November 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 at Marina Bay Sands Expo, Singapore from November 14–15.Basic Attention Token (BAT): 14 November 2019 London Privacy Meetup “If you’re in London on Nov. 14th, don’t miss our privacy meetup! The Brave research team, our CPO@johnnyryan, as well as@UoE_EFIHorizen (ZEN):14 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.IOTA (MIOTA):14 November 2019 Berlin Meetup From Construction to Smart City: IOTA, Maschinenraum & Thinkt Digital will explain, using concrete use cases, how to gain real value from..Dash (DASH):14 November 2019 Q3 Summary Call “Dash Core Group Q3 2019 Summary Call — Thursday, 14 November 2019”NEO (NEO):14 November 2019 NeoFest Singapore Meetup “Glad to have@Nicholas_Mertenfrom DataDash as our host for #NeoFest Singapore meetup on 14th Nov!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 15, 2019）
TRON (TRX):15 November 2019 Cross-chain Project “The #TRON cross-chain project will be available on Nov. 15th”Bluzelle (BLZ):15 November 2019 (or earlier) CURIE Release CURIE release expected by early November 2019.Zebi (ZCO):15 November 2019 ZEBI Token Swap Ends “… We will give 90 days to all the ERC 20 token holders to swap out their tokens into Zebi coins.”OKB (OKB):15 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Vilnius “Join us for a meetup on 15 Nov (Fri) for our 1st ever Talks in Vilnius, Lithuania.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 16, 2019）
Bancor (BNT): and 2 others 16 November 2019 Crypto DeFiance-Singapore “Crypto DeFiance is a new global DeFi event embracing established innovators, financial market disruptors, DApp developers…”NEM (XEM):16 November 2019 Developer’s Event “BLOCKCHAIN: Creation of Multifirma services” from 10:50 AM — 2 PM.
Encrypted project calendar（November 17, 2019）
OKB (OKB):17 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Lagos Join us on 17 Nov for another OKEx Talks, discussing the “Life of a Crypto Trader”.
Encrypted project calendar（November 18, 2019）
Maker (MKR):18 November 2019 MCD Launch “BIG changes to terminology are coming with the launch of MCD on Nov. 18th Say hello to Vaults, Dai, and Sai.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 19, 2019）
Lisk (LSK):19 November 2019 Lisk.js “We are excited to announce liskjs2019 will take place on November 19th. This all day blockchain event will include…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 20, 2019）
OKB (OKB):20 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Odessa Ukr “Join us in Odessa as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 21, 2019）
Cardano (ADA):and 2 others 21 November 2019 Meetup Netherlands (AMS) “This meetup is all about how to decentralize a blockchain, the problems and differences between Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake…”Cappasity (CAPP):21 November 2019 Virtuality Paris 2019 “Cappasity to demonstrate its solution for the interactive shopping experience at Virtuality Paris 2019.”Horizen (ZEN):21 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.OKB (OKB):21 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Johannesburg “Join us the largest city of South Africa — Johannesburg where we will host our OKEx Talks on the 21st Nov.”IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key tech.OKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 22, 2019）
IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key techOKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191104 (Market index 49 — Neutral state)
https://preview.redd.it/ur8lc13r0ow31.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b3bde6642a6ad9ea600aa0121fabfd14506dfae5 China And Kazakhstan To Cooperate In Digital Industry, And BlockchainHAN Zheng, a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council and Chinese chair of the China-Kazakhstan Cooperation Committee, and Alikhan Smailov, first Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan and the Kazakh Chair of the committee, co-chaired the ninth meeting of the China-Kazakhstan Cooperation Committee in China on November 4. Huawei To Advance Commercial Application Of Blockchain, Says Director Of Huawei Blockchain ProjectRecently, blockchain has been a quite hot word in China after President XI Jinping claimed the emerging technology is vital to the future of the country. ZHANG Xiaojun, the director of the Huawei blockchain project, shared his opinions on the current development of blockchain in a recent interview.When talking about the obstacles faced by the blockchain in terms of the wide application, ZHANG pointed out four points. Firstly, users hope to increase revenue through blockchain, while the technology itself is to reduce operating cost; secondly, the security of blockchain technology is still insufficient, which may lead to new security risks in the application; thirdly, the shortage of cross-chain standards brings difficulties in the large commercial application of blockchain; lastly, blockchain is becoming an isolated island, which makes POC possible but blocks it to be commercialized.What Huawei faces is the first obstacle, according to ZHANG. He said the company intends to provide customers with a clear value demonstration for blockchain, which will help sweep aside customers’ concerns and enlarge their commercial application layout.Besides, regarding opportunities brought by 5G to blockchain, he stated that the blockchain technology would not only be deployed in the core cloud but also the edge cloud. And 5G can meet demands of large bandwidth and low latency for the edge cloud blockchain in the case of large commercial use. China Launches A Blockchain-Based Identification System For Smart CitiesChina has launched a blockchain-based identification system for smart cities, aimed at better connectivity and data sharing between these cities.The system has been developed by three institutes in the city of Shijiazhuang and will assign a unique, global digital ID to nationwide smart cities, Global Times reported on Nov. 4, citing state-run Xinhua News Agency.ZHANG Chao, director of the Zhongguancun Industry & Information Research Institute of Two-dimensional Code Technology, one of the developers of the blockchain-based ID system, said that the system was self-developed by China and will be “independently distributed and managed by China, with a unified distribution rule, a resolution of distributed storage and tamper-resistant code.” https://preview.redd.it/nfipy2tt0ow31.png?width=504&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b30d9dec352d10d9c3fd674c61b4c59b0de5ab5 This past week, bitcoin climbed higher steadily above the $9,200 and $9,300 resistance levels against the US Dollar. BTC even traded above the $9,350 resistance area and the 100 hourly simple moving average. However, the price struggling to break the $9,400 resistance area. As a result, the price started a fresh decline from the $9,393 high. It traded back below the $9.300 level and the 100 hourly SMA. More importantly, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near $9,240 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A low was formed near $9,081 and the price is currently correcting higher. Review previous articles:https://medium.com/@to.liuwen
Encrypted project calendar（November 4, 2019）
Stellar (XLM)：04 November 2019 Stellar Meridian Conf. Stellar Meridian conference from Nov 4–5 in Mexico City.Cappasity (CAPP)：04 November 2019 Lisbon Web Summit Lisbon Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal from November 4–7.Aion (AION):04 November 2019 CASCON x EVOKE 2019 CASCON x EVOKE 2019 from Nov 4–6 in Toronto.ThoreNext (THX):04 November 2019 Migration/Swap Begins “4 Nov 2019 Migration/Swap/Issuance start Check Your email 1st Nov To facilitate a streamlined Process, we will use proprietary software…”Ocean Protocol (OCEAN):04 November 2019 Blckchn for Science Party “Join us on Monday for bottles and (data) models at the official Blockchain for Science afterparty at@betahaus“Factom (FCT):04 November 2019 Grant Deadline “Have an idea you’ve been itching to build using #FactomProtocol? Apply for a grant (the deadline is November 4th):”Winding Tree (LIF):04 November 2019 HackTravel London HackTravel London from November 4–6 in London.
Encrypted project calendar（November 5, 2019）
Nexus (NXS)：05 November 2019 Tritium Official Release “Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the day Tritium changed Distributed Ledger. Yes, this is an official release date.”NEM (XEM)：05 November 2019 Innovation Forum — Kyiv NEM Foundation Council Member Anton Bosenko will be speaking in the upcoming International Innovation Forum in Kyiv on November 5, 2019.TomoChain (TOMO):05 November 2019 TomoX Testnet “Mark your calendar as TomoX testnet will be live on Tuesday, Nov 5th!”aelf (ELF):05 November 2019 Bug Bounty Program Ends On Oct 24th, 2019 aelf’s biggest bug bounty will launch with a large reward pool. The event will run for almost 2 weeks.ICON (ICX):05 November 2019 Seoul Meetup “We are pleased to announce that the ICON x Steem DApp SEOUL MEETUP will be held in the ICON Lounge on November 5th.”Utrust (UTK):05 November 2019 Lisbon Meetup “We’re hosting a meetup for anyone interested in blockchain & crypto adoption! Industry leaders like Cointelegraph, BetProtocol & others…”Siacoin (SC):05 November 2019 Zurich Meetup “Join us Tuesday, Nov 5th in Zurich for a Sia meetup with CEO David, and devs Chris and PJ at@impacthubzurich.”OKB (OKB):05 November 2019 Simulation USDT Futures “NEW LAUNCH: The much-awaited $USDT-Margined Futures Trading will soon be available on #OKEx… Simulation launching Nov 5”
Encrypted project calendar（November 6, 2019）
STEEM/Steem:The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.KIM/Kimcoin:Kimcoin (KIM) Bitfinex will be online at KIM on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 (UTC).Nebulas (NAS):06 November 2019 Burn Deadline “Be sure to read this announcement & burn your $NAT by November 6th, 3:00p.m. (UTC+8, Beijing time).”Power Ledger (POWR):06 November 2019 Book Launch ATTN Perth Power Ledger community, we will be hosting renowned economist Ross Garnaut at our WA office for the launch of his latest book…
Encrypted project calendar（November 7, 2019）
XRP (XRP)： 07 November 2019 Swell 2019 Ripple hosts Swell from November 7th — 8th in Singapore.BTC/Bitcoin:Malta The A.I. and Blockchain summit will be held in Malta from November 7th to 8th.Waves (WAVES):07 November 2019 Joins Odyssey “#Waves is joining Odyssey… We’re kicking off on Nov. 7 at Polaris…”Komodo (KMD)and 1 other: 07 November 2019 Block Party Amsterdam Block Party Amsterdam in Amsterdam from 17:30–22:00.Horizen (ZEN):07 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 8, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.IOTX/IoTeX:IoTex (IOTX) will participate in the CES Expo on November 08TOP (TOP):08 November 2019 Mainnet Launch “So excited to announce that on November 8th, TOP Network will officially launch the mainnet…”OKB (OKB):08 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Valencia “Meet us at our next OKEx Talks in Valencia on 8 Nov with speaker Gustavo Segovia@sepu85who will look at the benefits of creating
Encrypted project calendar（November 9, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality:Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.HTMLCOIN (HTML):09 November 2019 (or earlier) Mandatory Wallet Update Mandatory Wallet Update: there will be a soft fork on our blockchain. This update adds header signature verification on block 997,655.
Encrypted project calendar（November 10, 2019）
Bibox Token (BIX):10 November 2019 Bibox Summit “Bibox Summit 2019 — Maximizing Profit On Uptrend Season” from 1 PM — 5 PM (ITV) in Ho Chi Minh City.
Encrypted project calendar（November 11, 2019）
PAX/Paxos Standard:Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference.Crypto.com Coin (CRO):and 3 others 11 November 2019 Capital Warm-up Party Capital Warm-up Party in Singapore.GoldCoin (GLC):11 November 2019 Reverse Bitcoin Hardfork The GoldCoin (GLC) Team will be “Reverse Hard Forking” the Bitcoin (BTC) Blockchain…”Horizen (ZEN):11 November 2019 (or earlier) Horizen Giveaway — Nodes Horizen Giveaway — Win Free Node Hosting! Entries before November 11th.SINOVATE (SIN):11 November 2019 Roadmap V3 SINOVATE (SIN) Roadmap V3 will be released with new upcoming technologies and proof of concepts!
Encrypted project calendar（November 12, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13thBinance Coin (BNB)and 7 others: 12 November 2019 CMC Global Conference “The first-ever CoinMarketCap large-scale event: A one-of-a-kind blockchain / crypto experience like you’ve never experienced before.”Aion (AION)and 17 others: 12 November 2019 The Capital The Capital conference from November 12–13 in Singapore.Loom Network (LOOM):12 November 2019 Transfer Gateway Update “If you have a dapp that relies on the Transfer Gateway, follow the instructions below to make sure you’re prepared.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 13, 2019）
Fetch.ai (FET):13 November 2019 Cambridge Meetup “Join us for a@Fetch_ai#Cambridge #meetup on 13 November@pantonarms1.”Binance Coin (BNB)and 5 others: 13 November 2019 Blockchain Expo N.A. “It will bring together key industries from across the globe for two days of top-level content and discussion across 5 co-located events…”OKB (OKB):13 November 2019 Dnipro, Ukraine- Talks Join us in Dnipro as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour on 11 Nov.Centrality (CENNZ):13 November 2019 AMA Meetup “Ask our CEO@aaronmcdnzanything in person! Join the AMA meetup on 13 November in Singapore.”OKB (OKB):13 November 2019 OKEx Cryptotour Dnipro “OKEx Cryptour Ukraine 2019 — Dnipro” in Dnipro from 6–9 PM (EET).
Encrypted project calendar（November 14, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 BlockShow Asia Summit will be held at Marina Bay Sands, Singapore from November 14th to 15th.Binance Coin (BNB):and 4 others 14 November 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 at Marina Bay Sands Expo, Singapore from November 14–15.Basic Attention Token (BAT): 14 November 2019 London Privacy Meetup “If you’re in London on Nov. 14th, don’t miss our privacy meetup! The Brave research team, our CPO@johnnyryan, as well as@UoE_EFIHorizen (ZEN):14 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.IOTA (MIOTA):14 November 2019 Berlin Meetup From Construction to Smart City: IOTA, Maschinenraum & Thinkt Digital will explain, using concrete use cases, how to gain real value from..Dash (DASH):14 November 2019 Q3 Summary Call “Dash Core Group Q3 2019 Summary Call — Thursday, 14 November 2019”NEO (NEO):14 November 2019 NeoFest Singapore Meetup “Glad to have@Nicholas_Mertenfrom DataDash as our host for #NeoFest Singapore meetup on 14th Nov!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 15, 2019）
TRON (TRX):15 November 2019 Cross-chain Project “The #TRON cross-chain project will be available on Nov. 15th”Bluzelle (BLZ):15 November 2019 (or earlier) CURIE Release CURIE release expected by early November 2019.Zebi (ZCO):15 November 2019 ZEBI Token Swap Ends “… We will give 90 days to all the ERC 20 token holders to swap out their tokens into Zebi coins.”OKB (OKB):15 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Vilnius “Join us for a meetup on 15 Nov (Fri) for our 1st ever Talks in Vilnius, Lithuania.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 16, 2019）
Bancor (BNT): and 2 others 16 November 2019 Crypto DeFiance-Singapore “Crypto DeFiance is a new global DeFi event embracing established innovators, financial market disruptors, DApp developers…”NEM (XEM):16 November 2019 Developer’s Event “BLOCKCHAIN: Creation of Multifirma services” from 10:50 AM — 2 PM.
Encrypted project calendar（November 17, 2019）
OKB (OKB):17 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Lagos Join us on 17 Nov for another OKEx Talks, discussing the “Life of a Crypto Trader”.
Encrypted project calendar（November 18, 2019）
Maker (MKR):18 November 2019 MCD Launch “BIG changes to terminology are coming with the launch of MCD on Nov. 18th Say hello to Vaults, Dai, and Sai.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 19, 2019）
Lisk (LSK):19 November 2019 Lisk.js “We are excited to announce liskjs2019 will take place on November 19th. This all day blockchain event will include…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 20, 2019）
OKB (OKB):20 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Odessa Ukr “Join us in Odessa as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 21, 2019）
Cardano (ADA):and 2 others 21 November 2019 Meetup Netherlands (AMS) “This meetup is all about how to decentralize a blockchain, the problems and differences between Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake…”Cappasity (CAPP):21 November 2019 Virtuality Paris 2019 “Cappasity to demonstrate its solution for the interactive shopping experience at Virtuality Paris 2019.”Horizen (ZEN):21 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.OKB (OKB):21 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Johannesburg “Join us the largest city of South Africa — Johannesburg where we will host our OKEx Talks on the 21st Nov.”IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key tech.OKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 22, 2019）
IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key techOKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 27, 2019）
OKB (OKB):27 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Vinnytsia “Join us in Vinnytsia as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”Fetch.ai (FET):27 November 2019 London Meetup “Join us on 27 November@primalbasehqto hear an exciting progress report as we prepare for the launch of our #mainnet”
Encrypted project calendar（November 28, 2019）
Horizen (ZEN):28 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 30, 2019）
Ethos (ETHOS):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Rebranding “In November, we unveil the broker token, a dynamic utility token to power our commission-free crypto trading and broker platform, Voyager.”Digitex Futures (DGTX):30 November 2019 Public Testnet Launch “…We can expect to see the world’s first zero-commission futures trading platform live on the Ethereum public testnet from 30th November.”Monero (XMR):30 November 2019 Protocol Upgrade “Preliminary information thread regarding the scheduled protocol upgrade of November 30.”Chiliz (CHZ):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Fiat to CHZ Exchanges “We will add another two fiat to $CHZ exchanges in November…”Skrumble Network (SKM):30 November 2019 (or earlier) P2P & Group Calling “P2P & Group Video Calling,” during November 2019.Aergo (AERGO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mainnet 2.0 Upgrade Mainnet 2.0 Protocol update by end of November.Akropolis (AKRO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”Nash Exchange (NEX):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mobile Strategy Phase 2 “Phase 2 of our mobile strategy will be live soon with our wallet and portfolio app hitting stores in November!”
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191103 (Market index 56 — Neutral state)
https://preview.redd.it/wfaplsepohw31.jpg?width=540&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=762ff2fcffb07c6f23c0da9d2db581f07f283203 DAppTotal: Airdrop Of EIDOS Is A Disaster, Top Player May Profit Over Tens Of Thousands Of Dollars Citing data by DAppTotal, ever since EIDOS launched the airdrop event, the number of its 24h active users has reached 1,260, that of its 24h transactions has surpassed 1.89 million, and its 24h trading volume has registered 1,770 EOS. Such popularity has never been seen in any other EOS DApps, according to DAppTotal. Blockchain security firm PeckShield revealed that the airdrop event of EIDOS led to the price surge of CPU, which means normal EOS transactions between users could fail and most of the users are not able to play with gaming DApps under a congested EOS network. As reported by CoinNess.com earlier, the current CPU price for 1 EOS is 0.0001 EOS. Two days ago, however, one could use 1 EOS to rent 3,600 EOS for 30 days. This indicates an increase of more than 16 times because of the EIDOS hype. DAppTotal researchers found that as of now, players have made 35.83 million transactions, containing 3.39 million EIDOS tokens, to the account ‘eidosonecoin,’ 95% of which had only 0.0001 EOS sent. If a user sold all of the EIDOS tokens at peak prices, his or her earnings could be more than tens of thousands of dollars. It is really harmful to the EOS ecosystem, said the researchers. At Least 23k Emails Leaked By BitMEX, Claims Research Director At The Block Larry Cermak, Director of Research at The Block, tweeted, “I now have access to 23,000 emails that were leaked by BitMEX. Surprisingly, there is only one person that used a .gov email. There were 66 students/alumni that used .edu email. NYU dominates (7 people), followed by Berkley, and University of Michigan.” BitMEX has previously made a response to the leaked email address in its blog post, saying that in this instance, beyond email addresses, no other personal data or account information has been disclosed and no further emails have been sent. “The error which has caused this has been identified and fixed, ensuring our usual high standards of privacy are upheld,” the company claimed. Chinese VC Firms Returning To Blockchain, $368M Raised In H1, 2019 By Blockchain Startups Chinese venture capital firms are taking another look at blockchain. After the 2018 crypto crash, up to 90 percent of blockchain-focused VCs left the market. Now, as China’s central government pushes for greater blockchain adoption, some are returning. During the first six months in 2019, Chinese blockchain startups raised $368 million via 71 funding deals, according to Chinese financial data tracker 01Caijing. https://preview.redd.it/amjdfirqohw31.png?width=473&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f116b8879f5af3122b05e95da71162f4ccae06a This past week, there was a slow and steady decline in bitcoin below the $8,400 support against the US Dollar. Moreover, BTC price also traded below the $8,200 support area. Finally, it spiked below the $8,000 support, but remained well above the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). A swing low was formed near $8,960 and the price recently started an upward move. There was a break above the $8,100 and $8,200 resistance levels to start a decent increase. More importantly, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near $9,240 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. At the moment, the price is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $10,584 high to $8,960 low. Review previous articles:https://medium.com/@to.liuwen
Encrypted project calendar（November 3, 2019）
Waltonchain (WTC):03 November 2019 Premining Application End “Application for SMN & GMN $WTA pre-mining ends at 17:00 on Nov. 3 (UTC+8).”
Encrypted project calendar（November 4, 2019）
Stellar (XLM)：04 November 2019 Stellar Meridian Conf. Stellar Meridian conference from Nov 4–5 in Mexico City.Cappasity (CAPP)：04 November 2019 Lisbon Web Summit Lisbon Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal from November 4–7.Aion (AION):04 November 2019 CASCON x EVOKE 2019 CASCON x EVOKE 2019 from Nov 4–6 in Toronto.ThoreNext (THX):04 November 2019 Migration/Swap Begins “4 Nov 2019 Migration/Swap/Issuance start Check Your email 1st Nov To facilitate a streamlined Process, we will use proprietary software…”Ocean Protocol (OCEAN):04 November 2019 Blckchn for Science Party “Join us on Monday for bottles and (data) models at the official Blockchain for Science afterparty at@betahaus“Factom (FCT):04 November 2019 Grant Deadline “Have an idea you’ve been itching to build using #FactomProtocol? Apply for a grant (the deadline is November 4th):”Winding Tree (LIF):04 November 2019 HackTravel London HackTravel London from November 4–6 in London.
Encrypted project calendar（November 5, 2019）
Nexus (NXS)：05 November 2019 Tritium Official Release “Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the day Tritium changed Distributed Ledger. Yes, this is an official release date.”NEM (XEM)：05 November 2019 Innovation Forum — Kyiv NEM Foundation Council Member Anton Bosenko will be speaking in the upcoming International Innovation Forum in Kyiv on November 5, 2019.TomoChain (TOMO):05 November 2019 TomoX Testnet “Mark your calendar as TomoX testnet will be live on Tuesday, Nov 5th!”aelf (ELF):05 November 2019 Bug Bounty Program Ends On Oct 24th, 2019 aelf’s biggest bug bounty will launch with a large reward pool. The event will run for almost 2 weeks.ICON (ICX):05 November 2019 Seoul Meetup “We are pleased to announce that the ICON x Steem DApp SEOUL MEETUP will be held in the ICON Lounge on November 5th.”Utrust (UTK):05 November 2019 Lisbon Meetup “We’re hosting a meetup for anyone interested in blockchain & crypto adoption! Industry leaders like Cointelegraph, BetProtocol & others…”Siacoin (SC):05 November 2019 Zurich Meetup “Join us Tuesday, Nov 5th in Zurich for a Sia meetup with CEO David, and devs Chris and PJ at@impacthubzurich.”OKB (OKB):05 November 2019 Simulation USDT Futures “NEW LAUNCH: The much-awaited $USDT-Margined Futures Trading will soon be available on #OKEx… Simulation launching Nov 5”
Encrypted project calendar（November 6, 2019）
STEEM/Steem:The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.KIM/Kimcoin:Kimcoin (KIM) Bitfinex will be online at KIM on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 (UTC).Nebulas (NAS):06 November 2019 Burn Deadline “Be sure to read this announcement & burn your $NAT by November 6th, 3:00p.m. (UTC+8, Beijing time).”Power Ledger (POWR):06 November 2019 Book Launch ATTN Perth Power Ledger community, we will be hosting renowned economist Ross Garnaut at our WA office for the launch of his latest book…
Encrypted project calendar（November 7, 2019）
XRP (XRP)： 07 November 2019 Swell 2019 Ripple hosts Swell from November 7th — 8th in Singapore.BTC/Bitcoin:Malta The A.I. and Blockchain summit will be held in Malta from November 7th to 8th.Waves (WAVES):07 November 2019 Joins Odyssey “#Waves is joining Odyssey… We’re kicking off on Nov. 7 at Polaris…”Komodo (KMD)and 1 other: 07 November 2019 Block Party Amsterdam Block Party Amsterdam in Amsterdam from 17:30–22:00.Horizen (ZEN):07 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 8, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.IOTX/IoTeX:IoTex (IOTX) will participate in the CES Expo on November 08TOP (TOP):08 November 2019 Mainnet Launch “So excited to announce that on November 8th, TOP Network will officially launch the mainnet…”OKB (OKB):08 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Valencia “Meet us at our next OKEx Talks in Valencia on 8 Nov with speaker Gustavo Segovia@sepu85who will look at the benefits of creating
Encrypted project calendar（November 9, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality:Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.HTMLCOIN (HTML):09 November 2019 (or earlier) Mandatory Wallet Update Mandatory Wallet Update: there will be a soft fork on our blockchain. This update adds header signature verification on block 997,655.
Encrypted project calendar（November 11, 2019）
PAX/Paxos Standard:Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference.Crypto.com Coin (CRO):and 3 others 11 November 2019 Capital Warm-up Party Capital Warm-up Party in Singapore.GoldCoin (GLC):11 November 2019 Reverse Bitcoin Hardfork The GoldCoin (GLC) Team will be “Reverse Hard Forking” the Bitcoin (BTC) Blockchain…”Horizen (ZEN):11 November 2019 (or earlier) Horizen Giveaway — Nodes Horizen Giveaway — Win Free Node Hosting! Entries before November 11th.
Encrypted project calendar（November 12, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13thBinance Coin (BNB)and 7 others: 12 November 2019 CMC Global Conference “The first-ever CoinMarketCap large-scale event: A one-of-a-kind blockchain / crypto experience like you’ve never experienced before.”Aion (AION)and 17 others: 12 November 2019 The Capital The Capital conference from November 12–13 in Singapore.Loom Network (LOOM):12 November 2019 Transfer Gateway Update “If you have a dapp that relies on the Transfer Gateway, follow the instructions below to make sure you’re prepared.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 13, 2019）
Fetch.ai (FET):13 November 2019 Cambridge Meetup “Join us for a@Fetch_ai#Cambridge #meetup on 13 November@pantonarms1.”Binance Coin (BNB)and 5 others: 13 November 2019 Blockchain Expo N.A. “It will bring together key industries from across the globe for two days of top-level content and discussion across 5 co-located events…”OKB (OKB):13 November 2019 Dnipro, Ukraine- Talks Join us in Dnipro as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour on 11 Nov.Centrality (CENNZ):13 November 2019 AMA Meetup “Ask our CEO@aaronmcdnzanything in person! Join the AMA meetup on 13 November in Singapore.”OKB (OKB):13 November 2019 OKEx Cryptotour Dnipro “OKEx Cryptour Ukraine 2019 — Dnipro” in Dnipro from 6–9 PM (EET).
Encrypted project calendar（November 14, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 BlockShow Asia Summit will be held at Marina Bay Sands, Singapore from November 14th to 15th.Binance Coin (BNB):and 4 others 14 November 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 at Marina Bay Sands Expo, Singapore from November 14–15.Basic Attention Token (BAT): 14 November 2019 London Privacy Meetup “If you’re in London on Nov. 14th, don’t miss our privacy meetup! The Brave research team, our CPO@johnnyryan, as well as@UoE_EFIHorizen (ZEN):14 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.IOTA (MIOTA):14 November 2019 Berlin Meetup From Construction to Smart City: IOTA, Maschinenraum & Thinkt Digital will explain, using concrete use cases, how to gain real value from..Dash (DASH):14 November 2019 Q3 Summary Call “Dash Core Group Q3 2019 Summary Call — Thursday, 14 November 2019”NEO (NEO):14 November 2019 NeoFest Singapore Meetup “Glad to have@Nicholas_Mertenfrom DataDash as our host for #NeoFest Singapore meetup on 14th Nov!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 15, 2019）
TRON (TRX):15 November 2019 Cross-chain Project “The #TRON cross-chain project will be available on Nov. 15th”Bluzelle (BLZ):15 November 2019 (or earlier) CURIE Release CURIE release expected by early November 2019.Zebi (ZCO):15 November 2019 ZEBI Token Swap Ends “… We will give 90 days to all the ERC 20 token holders to swap out their tokens into Zebi coins.”OKB (OKB):15 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Vilnius “Join us for a meetup on 15 Nov (Fri) for our 1st ever Talks in Vilnius, Lithuania.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 16, 2019）
Bancor (BNT): and 2 others 16 November 2019 Crypto DeFiance-Singapore “Crypto DeFiance is a new global DeFi event embracing established innovators, financial market disruptors, DApp developers…”NEM (XEM):16 November 2019 Developer’s Event “BLOCKCHAIN: Creation of Multifirma services” from 10:50 AM — 2 PM.
Encrypted project calendar（November 17, 2019）
OKB (OKB):17 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Lagos Join us on 17 Nov for another OKEx Talks, discussing the “Life of a Crypto Trader”.
Encrypted project calendar（November 18, 2019）
Maker (MKR):18 November 2019 MCD Launch “BIG changes to terminology are coming with the launch of MCD on Nov. 18th Say hello to Vaults, Dai, and Sai.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 19, 2019）
Lisk (LSK):19 November 2019 Lisk.js “We are excited to announce liskjs2019 will take place on November 19th. This all day blockchain event will include…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 20, 2019）
OKB (OKB):20 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Odessa Ukr “Join us in Odessa as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 21, 2019）
Cardano (ADA):and 2 others 21 November 2019 Meetup Netherlands (AMS) “This meetup is all about how to decentralize a blockchain, the problems and differences between Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake…”Cappasity (CAPP):21 November 2019 Virtuality Paris 2019 “Cappasity to demonstrate its solution for the interactive shopping experience at Virtuality Paris 2019.”Horizen (ZEN):21 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.OKB (OKB):21 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Johannesburg “Join us the largest city of South Africa — Johannesburg where we will host our OKEx Talks on the 21st Nov.”IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key tech.OKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 22, 2019）
IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key techOKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
The bitcoin price has climbed through much of 2020, adding some 40%, with the bullish stock-to-flow model—that predicts a massive $288,000 bitcoin price before 2024—working "like clockwork ... A global macro economist and well-known investor, has shared not one, or two, but three of what he refers to as “perfect” Bitcoin price charts. Two out of the three charts point to realistic upside targets of $1 million per BTC.Can Bitcoin truly reach a valuation so high? Realizing Bitcoin’s Long-Term Disruptive Potential Bitcoin has incredible disruptive potential. THE PRICE chart at CoinDesk, a cryptocurrency news site, begins on July 18th 2010, when a bitcoin could be had for $0.09. By November 2013 it had reached $1,124. Economist Shares Three Perfect Charts, Two Point to $1 Million Per BTC. For the most part, these predictions have been pure speculation. Thankfully, a highly-respected macro economist and investor, has shared what he refers to as three “perfect” Bitcoin price charts. Two out of the three charts point to a valuation of $1 million per BTC. The well-known economist Steve Hanke believes that Bitcoin is actually a speculative asset, rather than real currency, so let’s read more on what he thought in the Bitcoin news today.. If you have read Satoshi Nakamoto’s original whitepaper, the takeaway is that BTC is a currency: “We have proposed a system for electronic transactions without relying on trust.
Where Do YOU See Cryptocurrency In 5 Years? Is Bitcoin A Good Investment?
How likely is it that bitcoin fills its gaps? What has usually happened in the past when bitcoin forms a large gap on the charts? Does it usually fill it? We look at the charts. #Bitcoin #BTCUSD # ... For Bitcoin, it is business as usual. Here we just take a look at where we are on our logarithmic regression chart, and also take note of the fact that despite the positive price movement, we are ... http://bit.ly/2A8woas - Bitcoin DO's and Don'ts of Crypto Currency Hi, I want to Introduce you to Pat Kendrick, He is a retired economist, lead researcher an... Bitcoin trades 24/7 on major exchanges but does not trade on weekends on the CME. This often creates a gap, or empty space on the chart when trading resumes on the CME. THIS MACRO CHART SHOWS BITCOIN HAS NEVER SEEN A BEAR MARKET ... The Economist Recommended for you. New; 18:23. If You Hold Litecoin WATCH THIS [Litecoin Halving MUST KNOW] - Duration: 10:36.
