Election Betting Odds by Maxim Lott and John Stossel
- Election Betting Odds by Maxim Lott and John Stossel
- Odds to win the 2020 US Presidential Election: Biden leads ...
- 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds
- 2020 US Presidential Election Las Vegas Odds Las Vegas ...
- 2020 United States Presidential Election Odds to Win ...
Current betting odds for 2012 Presidential Election | Bovada - This is interesting if you trust Vegas bookies more than you do opinion polls.
submitted by Yojji to politics [link] [comments]
/r/politics [spam filtered] Current betting odds for 2012 Presidential Election | Bovada - This is interesting if you trust Vegas bookies more than you do opinion polls.
submitted by ModerationLog to ModerationLog [link] [comments]
Tampering With The Presidential Election (The Missing Link): The media made Hillary a distorted "98%" lock to win, and my theory is that this was done to create favorable Vegas Odds for gambling on Trump's victory. We need to know if any Newscaster bet on Trump's victory.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the
/politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to
register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the
FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary
convention bounce.
Election Predictions
Prognosticators
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
- Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
- Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
- Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO
Polling Models
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
- FiveThirtyEight - 538's runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
- Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
- JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
- The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
- Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
- Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
- Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work.
Predictit and
Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although
RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
Polling Megathread [11/07]
Welcome to the
/politics polling megathread! As discussed in our
metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread,
posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted. National Poll of Polls and Projections
Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.
Daily Presidential Polls
Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
| Date Released/Pollster | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
| 11/07, Ipsos/Reuters | 42 | 39 | 6 | 3 | Clinton +3 |
| 11/07, Gravis | 47 | 43 | 3 | 2 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, CCES/Yougov | 43 | 39 | 5 | N/A | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, Angus Reid | 48 | 44 | 6 | N/A | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, Monmouth U. | 50 | 44 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +6 |
| 11/07, Bloomberg/Selzer | 44 | 41 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +3 |
| 11/07, CBS News | 45 | 41 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, Fox News | 48 | 44 | 3 | 2 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, NBC/SM | 47 | 41 | 6 | 3 | Clinton +6 |
| 11/07, Economist/Yougov | 45 | 41 | 5 | N/A | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, ABC/WaPo | 47 | 43 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, IBD/TIPP | 41 | 43 | 6 | 2 | Trump +2 |
| 11/07, Rasmussen | 45 | 43 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +2 |
| 11/07, LA Times/USC | 43 | 48 | N/A | N/A | Trump +5 |
State Polling
| Date Released/Pollster | State | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
| 11/07, Gravis | Alaska | 41 | 44 | 3 | 6 | Trump +3 |
| 11/07, Gravis | Arizona | 43 | 45 | 3 | 5 | Trump +2 |
| 11/07, Data Orbital | Arizona | 44 | 47 | 4 | 2 | Trump +3 |
| 11/07, Gravis | Colorado | 44 | 43 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +1 |
| 11/07, Breitbart/Gravis | Florida | 46 | 45 | 4 | N/A | Clinton +1 |
| 11/07, Trafalgar (R) | Florida | 46 | 50 | 2 | 1 | Trump +4 |
| 11/07, Opinion Savvy | Florida | 48 | 46 | 3 | 1 | Clinton +2 |
| 11/07, Quinnipiac U. | Florida | 46 | 45 | 2 | 1 | Clinton +1 |
| 11/07, Gravis | Georgia | 44 | 48 | 3 | 3 | Trump +4 |
| 11/07, CBS/Yougov | Georgia | 43 | 49 | 4 | N/A | Trump +6 |
| 11/07, Fox 2/Mitchell | Michigan | 47 | 41 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +6 |
| 11/07, Breitbart/Gravis | Michigan | 46 | 41 | 3 | N/A | Clinton +5 |
| 11/07, Trafalgar (R) | Michigan | 47 | 49 | 3 | N/A | Trump +2 |
| 11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) | Missouri | 38 | 54 | N/A | N/A | Trump +16 |
| 11/07, Emerson* | Missouri | 41 | 47 | 7 | 2 | Trump +6 |
| 11/07, Gravis | Nevada | 45 | 43 | 4 | N/A | Clinton +2 |
| 11/07, Emerson* | Nevada | 47 | 46 | 4 | N/A | Clinton +1 |
| 11/07, Remington (R) | Nevada | 45 | 46 | 3 | N/A | Trump +1 |
| 11/07, Emerson* | New Hampshire | 45 | 44 | 5 | 3 | Clinton +1 |
| 11/07, Breitbart/Gravis | New Mexico | 45 | 37 | 11 | N/A | Clinton +8 |
| 11/07, Zia Poll* | New Mexico | 46 | 44 | 6 | 1 | Clinton +2 |
| 11/07, Gravis | New York | 55 | 36 | 2 | 2 | Clinton +19 |
| 11/07, Breitbart/Gravis | North Carolina | 46 | 45 | 3 | N/A | Clinton +1 |
| 11/07, NYT/Siena | North Carolina | 44 | 44 | 3 | N/A | Tied |
| 11/07, Quinnipiac U. | North Carolina | 47 | 45 | 3 | N/A | Clinton +2 |
| 11/07, Gravis | Ohio | 42 | 48 | 4 | 1 | Trump +6 |
| 11/07, Emerson* | Ohio | 39 | 46 | 7 | 2 | Trump +7 |
| 11/07, Gravis | Oregon | 44 | 40 | 6 | 5 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, Gravis | Pennsylvania | 46 | 40 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +6 |
| 11/07, CBS/Yougov | Pennsylvania | 45 | 43 | 4 | N/A | Clinton +2 |
| 11/07, Trafalgar (R) | Pennsylvania | 46 | 47 | 2 | 1 | Trump +1 |
| 11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) | Pennsylvania | 47 | 43 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, Gravis | South Carolina | 43 | 48 | 3 | 1 | Trump +5 |
| 11/07, Starboard Comm. (R) | South Carolina | 36 | 47 | 3 | 1 | Trump +11 |
| 11/07, CBS/Yougov** | Utah | 23 | 40 | 7 | N/A | Trump +16 |
| 11/07, Breitbart/Gravis | Virginia | 47 | 42 | 4 | N/A | Clinton +5 |
| 11/07, Hampton U. | Virginia | 45 | 41 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +4 |
| 11/07, Chris. Newport U. | Virginia | 48 | 42 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +6 |
| 11/07, Gravis | Wisconsin | 47 | 44 | 3 | 1 | Clinton +3 |
| 11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) | Wisconsin | 47 | 43 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +4 |
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*Emerson only polls landlines. The Zia Poll is 95% landlines with only a 5% cell phone supplement. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate.
**Evan McMullin is second in this survey, drawing 24% of the vote.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
- Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
- All national polls are believed to be final calls except for IBD. ABC will be releasing its final tracking poll result in the afternoon. CNN is presumably releasing its final poll at noon or 4PM EST today.
- I updated the previous megathread a little late yesterday. 3 polls came out around 11PM-12AM EST: A Targetsmart final tracking poll of Ohio, showing Trump leading by 3 pts (previously, Clinton led); a WMUUNH poll of New Hampshire, showing Clinton leading by 11 pts (previously, Clinton was up 7); and a Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce national poll, showing Clinton up 4 pts (previously, Clinton was up 5).
- Opinion Savvy has released its final Florida poll, showing Clinton up 2 pts. Its previous poll had Clinton up 4 pts.
- Trafalgar has released its final Florida poll, showing Trump leading by 4 pts. The margin is identical to its previous poll.
- Clarity Campaign, what appears to be an internal Democratic pollster, has released polling showing Clinton up 4 pts in Pennsylvania, and 4 pts in Wisconsin. Trump leads by 14 pts in Missouri.
- Angus-Reid has released its final national poll, showing Clinton up 4 pts. This pollster used a randomized online sample from an online panel, although its methodology does not appear to be similar to the LA Times/USC panel poll.
- Data Orbital has released what appears to be its final Arizona poll, showing Trump leading by 3 pts. Its previous poll had Trump up 8 pts.
- ABC News tracker has updated and finds the race unchanged with the addition of its Sunday sample.
- Trafalgar has released its final poll from Pennsylvania, showing Trump leading by 1 pt.
- Starboard Communications has released its final poll from South Carolina, showing Trump leading by 11 pts.
- CBS/Yougov has released final polls for Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Utah. Its Pennsylvania poll shows a 6 pt gain for Trump, who now only trails by 2 pts.
- Hampton University has released its final poll for Virginia, showing Clinton leading by 3. Its previous poll last week showed Trump leading by 3.
- The Economist/Yougov has released its final tracking poll, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts. Previously, Clinton led by 3.
- Trafalgar has released its final poll for Michigan, showing Trump leading by 2 pts.
- Gravis has released its final poll for Nevada, showing Clinton leading by 2 pts.
- Breitbart/Gravis has released its final polls for Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia. Clinton leads by 1 pt in Florida and North Carolina, 5 pts in Michigan and Virginia, and 8 pts in New Mexico.
- CCES/Yougov has released its final 50 state survey. In its national poll, it has Clinton up 4 pts, identical to the spread with the CBS/Yougov model. Ipsos/Reuters has also released its final 50 state survey.
- Gravis has released a multi-state final polling report of Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. It has also released its final national poll, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts.
- Ipsos/Reuters has released its final national poll, showing Clinton leading by 3 pts. Previously, she led by 4 pts.
- Fox 2/Mitchell has released its presumably final tracking poll of Michigan, showing Clinton leading by 6 pts. Previously, she led by 5 pts.
- Election Results: Dixville Notch in NH has historically voted at the stroke of midnight, along with Hart's Location and Millsfield. 8 voters have voted. 4 have voted for Clinton, 2 for Trump, 1 for Johnson, and a write-in for Mitt Romney. In Hart's Location, 17 have voted for Clinton, 14 for Trump, 3 for Johnson, 2 for Sanders, and 1 for a Kasich/Sanders ticket. In Millsfield, 4 have voted for Clinton, 16 have voted for Trump, and 1 for Sanders.
Previous Thread(s): 10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 10/31 - 11/02 | 11/03 | 11/04 - 11/05 | 11/06
Polling Megathread [11/03]
Welcome to the
/politics polling megathread! As discussed in our
metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread,
posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted. National Poll of Polls and Projections
Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.
Daily Presidential Polls
Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
State Polling
| Date Released/Pollster | State | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
| 11/03, NBC/Marist | Arizona | 40 | 45 | 9 | 3 | Trump +5 |
| 11/03, Saguaro Strat. (D?) | Arizona | 45 | 44 | 7 | N/A | Clinton +1 |
| 11/03, Arkansas Poll | Arkansas | 31 | 51 | N/A | N/A | Trump +20 |
| 11/03, PPIC/Field | California | 53 | 33 | 4 | 3 | Clinton +20 |
| 11/03, Magellan (R) | Colorado | 44 | 38 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +6 |
| 11/03, Breitbart/Gravis | Florida | 49 | 46 | 2 | 1 | Clinton +3 |
| 11/03, Opinion Savvy | Florida | 49 | 45 | 3 | 1 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/03, NBC/Marist | Georgia | 44 | 45 | 8 | N/A | Trump +1 |
| 11/03, RABA Res. | Iowa | 41 | 44 | 5 | 2 | Trump +3 |
| 11/03, Fox 2/Mitchell | Michigan | 47 | 44 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +3 |
| 11/03, UMass-Lowell | New Hampshire | 44 | 44 | 5 | 2 | Tied |
| 11/03, Globe/Suffolk U. | New Hampshire | 42 | 42 | 5 | 2 | Tied |
| 11/03, ARG Research | New Hampshire | 43 | 48 | N/A | N/A | Trump +5 |
| 11/03, WBUMassINC | New Hampshire | 39 | 40 | 10 | 3 | Trump +1 |
| 11/03, Breitbart/Gravis | Pennsylvania | 47 | 46 | 3 | 2 | Clinton +1 |
| 11/03, NBC/Marist | Texas | 40 | 49 | 6 | 2 | Trump +9 |
| 11/03, Emerson** | Texas | 35 | 49 | 5 | 4 | Trump +14 |
| 11/03, Emerson* | Utah | 20 | 40 | 3 | 2 | Trump +12* |
| 11/03, Monmouth U.* | Utah | 28 | 37 | 4 | N/A | Trump +9 |
| 11/03, Rasmussen* | Utah | 32 | 42 | 3 | N/A | Trump +10 |
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*In the Rasmussen poll, Evan McMullin polls third, receiving 21% of the vote. In the Monmouth poll, Evan McMullin polls third, receiving 24% of the vote. In the Emerson poll, Evan McMullin polls second, receiving 28% of the vote. Note that Emerson College only polls landlines.
**Emerson College only polls landlines. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
- Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
- The Times Picayune poll was released showing Clinton leading by 5 pts. A UPI/C Voter poll was released showing Clinton up 1. Both are internet non-probability sample polls.
- PPP has teased that it may release internal polling on behalf of a client in New Hampshire later today, presumably showing Clinton ahead. UMass-Lowell are expected to release a poll at 10:15PM EDT of NH. SurveyMonkey released a poll of NH showing Clinton up 10. Standard caveat about non-probability sample polls applies.
- UMass-Lowell has released its (presumably final) poll of New Hampshire, showing the race tied. Its previous poll in early October showed Clinton up 6 pts.
- RABA Research has released a poll of Iowa, showing Trump up 3 pts. In its previous poll in early September, Trump led by 1 pt.
Previous Thread(s): 10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 10/31 - 11/02
Polling Megathread [10/31 - 11/02]
Welcome to the
/politics polling megathread! As discussed in our
metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread,
posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted. National Poll of Polls and Projections
Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.
Daily Presidential Polls
Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
State Polling
| Date Released/Pollster | State | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
| 11/02, CNN/ORC | Arizona | 44 | 49 | ??? | ??? | Trump +5 |
| 11/02, Emerson* | Arizona | 43 | 47 | 2 | 2 | Trump +4 |
| 11/02, U. of AR | Arkansas | 36 | 59 | N/A | N/A | Trump +33 |
| 11/01, KABC/SUSA | California | 56 | 35 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +21 |
| 11/02, U. of Denver | Colorado | 39 | 39 | 5 | 4 | Tied |
| 11/02, Emerson* | Colorado | 44 | 41 | 8 | 4 | Clinton +3 |
| 10/31, Remington (R) | Colorado | 45 | 44 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +1 |
| 11/02, Quinnipiac U. | Florida | 46 | 45 | 2 | 2 | Clinton +1 |
| 11/02, CNN/ORC | Florida | 49 | 47 | ??? | ??? | Clinton +2 |
| 11/02, TargetSmart | Florida | 48 | 40 | 3 | 2 | Clinton +8 |
| 11/02, Trafalgar (R) | Florida | 45 | 49 | 2 | 1 | Trump +4 |
| 11/02, Emerson* | Georgia | 42 | 51 | 2 | N/A | Trump +9 |
| 10/31, WXIA-TV/SUSA | Georgia | 42 | 49 | 3 | N/A | Trump +7 |
| 11/01, Loras College | Illinois | 45 | 34 | 6 | 2 | Clinton +11 |
| 10/31, Monmouth U. | Indiana | 39 | 50 | 4 | N/A | Trump +11 |
| 11/01, West. KY U. | Kentucky | 37 | 54 | 1 | 1 | Trump +17 |
| 11/01, Emerson* | Maine | 46 | 42 | 5 | 1 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/01, MPRC (D) | Maine | 42 | 37 | 9 | 4 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/02, Fox 2/Mitchell | Michigan | 47 | 44 | 3 | N/A | Clinton +3 |
| 11/02, Mich. State U.** | Michigan | 47 | 28 | 11 | 4 | Clinton +19 |
| 11/02, PPP (D) | Missouri | 37 | 50 | 4 | 2 | Trump +13 |
| 11/02, Remington (R) | Missouri | 39 | 51 | 4 | N/A | Trump +12 |
| 11/02, Emerson* | Missouri | 37 | 52 | 5 | 2 | Trump +15 |
| 11/01, Monmouth U. | Missouri | 38 | 52 | 4 | 2 | Trump +14 |
| 10/31, WMUUNH | New Hampshire | 46 | 39 | 6 | 1 | Clinton +7 |
| 11/02, LV NOW/JMC | Nevada | 45 | 45 | 4 | N/A | Tied |
| 11/02, CNN/ORC | Nevada | 43 | 49 | ??? | ??? | Trump +6 |
| 10/31, Remington (R) | Nevada | 44 | 48 | 4 | N/A | Trump +4 |
| 11/02, Trafalgar (R) | North Carolina | 44 | 49 | 4 | N/A | Trump +5 |
| 11/02, Quinnipiac U. | North Carolina | 47 | 44 | 3 | N/A | Clinton +3 |
| 11/01, WRAL/SUSA | North Carolina | 44 | 51 | 3 | N/A | Trump +7 |
| 11/01, Elon U. | North Carolina | 42 | 41 | 3 | N/A | Clinton +1 |
| 10/31, Remington (R) | North Carolina | 45 | 47 | 2 | N/A | Trump +2 |
| 11/02, Quinnipiac U. | Ohio | 41 | 46 | 5 | 2 | Trump +5 |
| 11/02, Fox 12/DHM | Oregon | 41 | 34 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +7 |
| 11/02, Quinnipiac U. | Pennsylvania | 48 | 43 | 3 | 3 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/02, Monmouth U. | Pennsylvania | 48 | 44 | 3 | 1 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/02, CNN/ORC | Pennsylvania | 48 | 44 | ??? | ??? | Clinton +4 |
| 11/02, Susquehanna | Pennsylvania | 45 | 43 | 2 | 2 | Clinton +2 |
| 11/01, F & M College | Pennsylvania | 49 | 38 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +11 |
| 10/31, Remington (R) | Pennsylvania | 45 | 43 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +2 |
| 10/31, Breitbart/Gravis | Pennsylvania | 47 | 44 | 3 | 2 | Clinton +3 |
| 10/31, Nielson Bros. | South Dakota | 35 | 49 | 7 | N/A | Trump +14 |
| 11/01, CBS 11/Dixie Strat. | Texas | 39 | 52 | 3 | 0 | Trump +13 |
| 11/02, Hampton U. | Virginia | 41 | 44 | N/A | N/A | Trump +3 |
| 11/02, Winthrop U. | Virginia | 44 | 39 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/01, WaPo/Schar | Virginia | 48 | 42 | 6 | 2 | Clinton +6 |
| 11/01, Emerson* | Virginia | 49 | 45 | 3 | 1 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/02, Marquette Law | Wisconsin | 46 | 40 | 4 | 3 | Clinton +6 |
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*Emerson Does not poll cell phones or include an internet supplement. Landline only polls are no longer the industry standard in polling, and may lead to erroneous results.
**Michigan State University's poll was in the field for 2 months. This is much much longer than the ideal polling period of 3-5 days.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
- Rasmussen's Pulse Opinion Research also released polling of NC, PA, FL and OH, on behalf of Alliance-ESA last updated 11/01. It's not clear what the numbers they intend to report, though, as they model the electorate in several different ways. Using the 3 day sample, Clinton leads by 1 pt in FL, 4 pts in NH, 4 pts in NV, and 6 pts in OH. Trump leads PA by 1 pt. The two candidates are tied in NC.
- SurveyMonkey also released some new state polls.
- Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
- We are expecting a Marquette Law School poll for Wisconsin later today. Monmouth U. will also be releasing a Pennsylvania poll (likely at 1PM EDT). Quinnipiac U. is expected to release polls for FL, OH, NC and PA at 3PM EDT.
- Susquehanna College released its final survey for Pennsylvania, taken 10/31 to 11/01 and showing Clinton up 2 pts. Its previous poll had Clinton up 5 pts.
- Monmouth University has released its final poll for Pennsylvania, showing Clinton up 4 pts. The previous poll had Clinton up 10.
- Marquette University Law has released its final poll for Wisconsin this cycle, showing Clinton up 6 pts. Its previous poll had Clinton up 7 pts in early October.
- Quinnipiac University has released (presumably) its final polls for Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. They show Clinton up 1 pt in FL, 3 pts in NC, and 5 pts in PA. Trump leads OH by 5 pts. In their previous polls, Clinton was up 4 in FL, 4 in NC, and 6 in PA. The two candidates were tied in OH.
- Hampton University has released a poll (presumably its final poll) for Virginia, showing Trump up 3 pts. Its previous poll had Clinton up 12 pts.
- JMC Analytics has released a poll for Nevada, showing the race tied. Its previous poll had Clinton up 2 pts.
- The Times/Picayune has released polls for Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Trump leads AZ by 1 pt, Clinton leads CO by 7 pts, NV by 7 pts, and NM by 8 pts. This is a non-probability sample poll, much like the SurveyMonkey state polls.
- Rasmussen's Pulse Opinion Research also released polling of NC, PA, FL and OH, on behalf of Alliance-ESA last updated 11/02. It's not clear what the numbers they intend to report, though, as they model the electorate in several different ways. Using the 3 day sample, Clinton leads by 3 pts in NC, 4 pts in NH, 1 pt in PA and 3 pts in OH. The two candidates are tied in FL and NV.
- Fox 2/Mitchell has updated its Michigan tracking poll, showing Clinton up 3 pts. Its previous poll had Clinton up 6 pts. Note that Mitchell is a robocaller that only polls landlines and does not call cell phones or have an internet panel supplement.
- The Missouri Times/Remington Research weekly poll of Missouri has been released, showing Trump up 12 pts. Remington is a Republican internal pollster. On the downballot, they are seeing Republican Eric Greitens leading Democrat Chris Koster for the first time in the gubernatorial race. Their first sample of the MO Senate race has Sen. Roy Blunt up 4 pts over MO SoS Jason Kander.
- The University of Arkansas has released a poll for Arkansas, showing Trump up 33 pts.
- University of Colorado Boulder has released a non-random internet poll of Colorado, showing Clinton up 10 pts (44-34). It was conducted between Oct. 17th and Oct. 24th.
- PPP has released a poll for Missouri, showing Trump up 13 pts.
- Ipsos/Reuters has updated its tracking poll, showing Clinton up a rounded 8 (7.3) pts.
- U. of Denver has released a poll of Colorado, showing the candidates tied.
- Trafalgar Group, a Republican internal pollster, has released its final poll for North Carolina, showing Trump up 5 pts.
Previous Thread(s):
10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30
Polling Megathread [11/06]
Welcome to the
/politics polling megathread! As discussed in our
metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread,
posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted. National Poll of Polls and Projections
Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.
Daily Presidential Polls
Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
State Polling
| Date Released/Pollster | State | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
| 11/06, CBS/Yougov | Florida | 45 | 45 | 4 | 2 | Tied |
| 11/06, Fox 2/Mitchell | Michigan | 46 | 41 | 7 | 3 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/06, Trafalgar (R)* | Nevada | 45 | 50 | 3 | N/A | Trump +5 |
| 11/06, WMUUNH | New Hampshire | 49 | 38 | 6 | 1 | Clinton +11 |
| 11/06, ABQ Journal | New Mexico | 45 | 40 | 11 | 3 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/06, Siena College | New York | 51 | 34 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +17 |
| 11/06, TargetSmart | Ohio | 40 | 43 | 8 | 3 | Trump +3 |
| 11/06, CBS/Yougov | Ohio | 45 | 46 | 3 | 2 | Trump +1 |
| 11/06, Columbus Dispatch** | Ohio | 48 | 47 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +1 |
| 11/06, Trafalgar (R)* | Utah | 30 | 40 | 4 | N/A | Trump +10 |
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*Trafalgar only polls landlines. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate. In Trafalgar's Utah poll, Evan McMullin takes 24% of the vote.
**The Columbus Dispatch poll is a bizarre methodology involving mailing out sample questionnaires by mail. While the methodology is heavily criticized, in the past, it has correctly predicted the winner of the state.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
- Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
- CNN is expected to release its final national poll today. TargetSmart will be releasing a final tracking poll for Ohio tonight.
- NBC/WSJ has released its final national poll, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts. Its previous poll in early October showed Clinton leading by 11 pts. A poll conducted by the same pollsters on behalf of CNBC in mid-late October (but before the FBI announcement) showed Clinton leading by 9 pts.
- CBS/Yougov has released its final battleground polls for Florida and Ohio. In Florida, they find the race tied. Previously, in mid-late October (but before the FBI announcement), Clinton led by 3 pts. In Ohio, Trump leads by 1 pt. Previously, in early October, Clinton led by 4 pts.
- Economist/Yougov has updated its tracking poll/model, showing Clinton up 4 pts.
- Fox 2/Mitchell's tracking poll has been released, showing Clinton up 5. Its previous poll showed Clinton up 3. Mitchell is a landline-only IVR pollster which supplements with an internet panel.
- TargetSmart OH, UNH NH, Trafalgar UT, and Franklin Pierce National polls added.
Previous Thread(s): 10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 10/31 - 11/02 | 11/03 | 11/04 - 11/05
THE ROARIN MAC'S Impeachment & Election Predictions, Picks, and Odds!
 | THE ROARIN MAC'S Impeachment & Election Predictions, Picks, and Odds! https://preview.redd.it/u47xq8hsdu641.jpg?width=851&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1d8c65b990b0b30a81122243cc5531e2ac862181 Professional Gambling Information from Retired Vegas Sports Consultant Roland "The MAC" McGuillaman! Donald Trump Impeachment & Election Predictions, Picks, and Odds! THE ROARIN MAC'S Impeachment & Election Predictions, Picks, and Odds! TRUMP ODDS, 2020 PRESIDENT REELECTION LINES, TRUMP ELECTION PROP BETS | DONALD TRUMP BETTING WILL DONALD TRUMP RUN FOR RE-ELECTION IN 2020? Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 10:00 AM YES -675 NO +425 WILL D TRUMP BE ELECTED TO A 2ND TERM AS POTUS? Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 10:00 AM YES -200 NO +140 NUMBER OF REPUB. SENATORS TO VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM 0 +150 1-4 +100 5-9 +650 10 OR MORE +1000 WILL MCCONNELL TRY TO DISMISS ARTICLES OF IMPEACH. Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM YES +250 NO -400 PELOSI TO SEND ARTICLES OF IMPEACHMENT TO SENATE Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM YES -3000 NO +2000 WILL MITT ROMNEY VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM YES +180 NO -220 WILL SUSAN COLLINS VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM YES +300 NO -500 WILL MARCO RUBIO VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM YES +250 NO -400 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - TO WIN Wager cut off: 2020 10th January 10:00 AM DONALD TRUMP -250 BERNIE SANDERS +1000 PETE BUTTIGIEG +1000 JOE BIDEN +700 ANDREW YANG +4000 ELIZABETH WARREN +380 TULSI GABBARD +12000 AMY KLOBUCHAR +11500 CORY BOOKER +32500 MIKE PENCE +6000 JULIAN CASTRO +120000 JOHN KASICH +35000 MICHAEL BLOOMBERG +1700 HILLARY CLINTON +3300 NIKKI HALEY +8000 MARIANNE WILLIAMSON +120000 GENDER OF NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT? Wager cut off: 2020 10th January 10:00 AM MAN -500 WOMAN +350 It just doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Joe Biden isn't a rocket scientist, and it doesn't take a feminist to know that there is no chance of there being a first American first lady-boy. Look, the bottom line is that Trump needs another 4 years as POTUS to set up his posthumous monetary bottom line by setting up a few more international back room deals & slippery handshakes with a few more Global Corporation CEO's, Military Leaders, and Offshore Banks! RedAlertWagers.com and Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman along with the American People will be voting TRUMP 2020 and that's just what it is! The MAC'S 2020 Presidential Prediction - DONALD TRUMP -250 Predictions are Courtesy of RedAlertWagers.com and Odds are Courtesy of MyBookie.ag Limited Introductory Offer: $7 a month gets access to all exclusive releases and top rated premium plays on Patreon! More Free Plays, Gambling Information and Exclusive Top Rated Premium Plays at RedAlertWagers.com submitted by TheMACSPicks to sportsbookextra [link] [comments] |
Polling Megathread [11/04 - 11/05]
Welcome to the
/politics polling megathread! As discussed in our
metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread,
posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted. National Poll of Polls and Projections
Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.
Daily Presidential Polls
Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
State Polling
| Date Released/Pollster | State | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
| 11/04, Data Orbital | Arizona | 39 | 47 | 4 | 1 | Trump +8 |
| 11/05, Breitbart/Gravis | Colorado | 40 | 40 | 7 | 4 | Tied |
| 11/04, PPP (D) | Colorado | 48 | 43 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/04, Keating Res. (D) | Colorado | 43 | 38 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/04, Trafalgar (R)* | Colorado | 45 | 44 | 5 | 4 | Clinton +1 |
| 11/04, Landmark | Georgia | 46 | 48 | 4 | N/A | Trump +2 |
| 11/04, Opinion Savvy | Georgia | 45 | 49 | 4 | N/A | Trump +4 |
| 11/04, Howey/POS | Indiana | 37 | 48 | 9 | N/A | Trump +11 |
| 11/04, Breitbart/Gravis | Indiana | 39 | 49 | 5 | N/A | Trump +10 |
| 11/05, Loras College | Iowa | 44 | 43 | 3 | 3 | Clinton +1 |
| 11/05, DMSelzer | Iowa | 39 | 46 | 6 | 1 | Trump +7 |
| 11/04, Emerson* | Iowa | 41 | 44 | 5 | 4 | Trump +3 |
| 11/04, Ft. Hays St. U. | Kansas | 34 | 58 | N/A | N/A | Trump +24 |
| 11/04, Western NE U. | Massachusetts | 56 | 26 | 8 | 3 | Clinton +30 |
| 11/04, FreeP/Epic-MRA | Michigan | 42 | 38 | 5 | N/A | Clinton +4 |
| 11/04, PPP (D) | Michigan | 46 | 41 | 6 | 2 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/04, Daily CalleStrat. Nat. | Michigan | 44 | 44 | 4 | 3 | Tied |
| 11/04, PPP (D)*** | Missouri | 41 | 52 | N/A | N/A | Trump +11 |
| 11/04, PPP (D)*** | Nevada | 48 | 45 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +3 |
| 11/04, PPP (D)*** | New Hampshire | 48 | 43 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +5 |
| 11/04, Breitbart/Gravis | New Hampshire | 41 | 43 | 7 | 2 | Trump +2 |
| 11/04, Stockton College | New Jersey | 51 | 40 | 3 | 1 | Clinton +11 |
| 11/04, Zia Poll | New Mexico | 46 | 43 | 7 | 1 | Clinton +3 |
| 11/04, PPP (D)*** | North Carolina | 49 | 47 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +2 |
| 11/05, Muhlenberg College | Pennsylvania | 44 | 40 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +4 |
| 11/05, Breitbart/Gravis | Pennsylvania | 47 | 45 | 2 | 2 | Clinton +2 |
| 11/04, PPP (D)*** | Pennsylvania | 48 | 44 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +4 |
| 11/04, Harper (R) | Pennsylvania | 46 | 46 | 2 | 1 | Tied |
| 11/04, Breitbart/Gravis** | Utah | 29 | 35 | 3 | 1 | Trump +6 |
| 11/04, Y2 Analytics** | Utah | 24 | 33 | 5 | 3 | Trump +5 |
| 11/04, PPP (D) | Virginia | 48 | 43 | 4 | 1 | Clinton +5 |
| 11/04, Roanoke College | Virginia | 45 | 38 | 5 | 2 | Clinton +7 |
| 11/04, SUSA | Washington | 50 | 38 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +12 |
| 11/04, PPP (D)*** | Wisconsin | 48 | 41 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +7 |
| 11/04, Loras College | Wisconsin | 44 | 38 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +6 |
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*Emerson College and Trafalgar only polls landlines. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate.
**In Gravis' final Utah poll, Evan McMullin comes in third, receiving 24% of the vote. In Y2 Analytics' presumably final Utah poll, Evan McMullin comes in second, receiving 28% of the vote.
***PPP released these polls on behalf of American Progress, an organization dedicated to gun control legislation reform.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
- Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
- Rasmussen's Pulse Opinion Research also released polling of NC, PA, FL and OH, on behalf of Alliance-ESA last updated 11/04. It's not clear what the numbers they intend to report, though, as they model the electorate in several different ways. Using the 3 day sample, Clinton leads by 3 pts in NC, 1 pt in NH, 6 pts in PA and 1 pt in OH. Trump leads by 1 in FL. The two candidates are tied in NV.
- SurveyMonkey has updated its 50 state survey.
- The final Des Moines Register poll of Iowa will be released tonight, conducted by Ann Selzer.
- Loras College has released its final poll of Iowa, showing Clinton leading by 1 pt. Its previous poll in mid-late September showed the candidates tied.
- Morning Call/Muhlenberg College has released its (presumably final) poll of Pennsylvania, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts. Its previous poll in late October (but before the FBI announcement) showed Clinton leading by 6 pts.
- [Latest] The Des Moines RegisteSelzer poll has released its final poll of Iowa, showing Trump leading by 7 pts. Its previous poll in mid-late October (but before the FBI announcement) showed Trump leading by 4 pts.
Previous Thread(s): 10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 10/31 - 11/02 | 11/03
Polling Megathread [10/10 - 10/12]
Welcome to the
/politics polling megathread! As discussed in our
metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread,
posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted. National Poll of Polls and Projections
Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.
Daily Presidential Polls
Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
*NBC/WSJ released a partial poll result on Monday comprising surveys done between Saturday and Sunday, which showed Clinton up 11 pts. The full poll is reproduced here. NBC notes that the Monday sample for the poll showed Clinton up 7 pts.
**NBC/Survey Monkey was in the field between October 5th and October 7th. The poll also claims to have noted a slight shift after the Trump tapes were leaked.
State Polls
| Date Released/Pollster | State | Clinton % | Trump % | Johnson % | Stein % | Net Margin |
| 10/12, Opinion Savvy | Florida | 47 | 44 | 5 | 1 | Clinton +3 |
| 10/12, MPRC (D)* | Maine | 44 | 36 | 9 | 3 | Clinton +8 |
| 10/12, Detroit News/WDIV | Michigan | 42 | 31 | 10 | 5 | Clinton +11 |
| 10/12, Remington (R) | Missouri | 42 | 47 | 4 | 1 | Trump +5 |
| 10/12, Monmouth U. | Missouri | 41 | 46 | 5 | 2 | Trump +5 |
| 10/12, PPP (D) | Nevada | 47 | 43 | N/A | N/A | Clinton +4 |
| 10/10, High Point U. | North Carolina | 43 | 42 | 8 | N/A | Clinton +1 |
| 10/12, Baldwin Wallace U. | Ohio | 43 | 34 | 10 | 3 | Clinton +9 |
| 10/11, Susquehanna (R) | Pennsylvania | 44 | 40 | 4 | 2 | Clinton +4 |
| 10/12, Y2 Analytics** | Utah | 26 | 26 | 14 | N/A | Tied |
| 10/11, Roanoke College | Virginia | 45 | 36 | 7 | 1 | Clinton +9 |
| 10/12, Marquette U. | Wisconsin | 44 | 37 | 9 | 3 | Clinton +7 |
| 10/10, Loras College | Wisconsin | 43 | 35 | 8 | 2 | Clinton +8 |
*MPRC splits the results between Maine's first and second Congressional district. Hillary Clinton leads Trump 49-32 in the first Congressional District; Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 40-39 in the second Congressional District.
**Evan McMullin is actually third in the Utah poll, pulling in 22% of the vote.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Previous Thread(s): 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/02
The betting odds for Trump had already taken a nose dive following the "shitshow" that was the first presidential debate on Tuesday. While neither candidate impressed, Trump came off as even less ... Vegas Odds And Betting Lines For The 2020 Presidential Election. After a previous unprecedented election cycle that included one of the most jaw-dropping Presidential campaign seasons in history and that has unilaterally redefined politics in America, it would take a lot to shock us at this point. RealClearPolitics - Betting Odds - 2020 U.S. President. As the Leftist Pig hate media engages in cheap gutter-sniping against President Trump while endorsing clueless buffoon Biden who is in the ... The return on the wager is higher. This is because betting on the US presidential election underdog is seen as a more risky bet. When Trump’s election odds are set at -125, presidential bet odds give Republicans a 55.56% chance of winning. How Accurate Are The Betting Odds For The Election Odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election according to Top Sportsbooks Schedule for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020. Updated on October 7, 2020. US Presidential Election 2020 - Odds by BetUS Joe Biden -180 Donald Trump +140. US Presidential Election 2020 - Odds by BetOnline Joe Biden -190 Donald Trump +160. US Presidential Election 2020 - Odds by Bovada Joe Biden -175
[index]
[37064] [1512] [17617] [58800] [28528] [17947] [41330] [28630] [57746] [36161]
Trump vs Biden Odds Status Quo, New Betting Markets Introduced in 2020 US Presidential Election
It's been a few weeks since Andrew Avery posted a video update in 2020 United States Presidential Election odds, but new betting markets have been introduced since that last update.
https://forex-viethnam.formining.pw
