After today’s effort not sure I want to post my each way bets for Saturday but here we go 110 Redcar Emperor Supreme 8/1 555 Wolves Batraan 11/2 120 Ascot Leafhopper 10/1 Write ups on the blog in the morning Good luck all having a bet
Trump on Q anon “I don’t know much about it”, then goes on to describe the movement in great detail
https://youtu.be/XWVNkHQtdbw This was the moment when the media finally asked the Q. Members of the Q anon movement had been waiting for this moment for a long time. His answer reveals two things, firstly Trump has to be cautious how much he says at this stage and secondly he knows all about the movement. This is typical of American politics, they have to have an each way bet and not give away too much. They maintain plausible deniability and use ambiguous and contradictory language. Trump is a master of this sort of doublespeak. When asked if he was taking down an evil cabal of pedofile, satanist cannibals he said “is that a bad thing?” TBH a moment like that should have caused most people on this sub and the pizzagate and pedogate subs to be jumping for joy. The POTUS just gave tacit support for our beliefs. However due to the contagion of TDS and the brigading by shills the moment was lost in the general noise. Trump knows all about Q, he is heavily involved, he retweets Q anon material hundreds of times, his son’s post pro Q anon material and it is run by the US military. Best estimates at the moment is there are 50 million supporters worldwide. It is growing daily on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter (despite the bans - probably Streisand effect). Do not read about Q anon on the MSM, they are one of the prime targets so of course they will just repeat “debunked/ hoax/ far-right conspiracy”. If you want to know more then read www.qmap.pub for yourself. Read some Martin Geddes on twitter, watch Joe Ms video called the plan. Watch the Fall Cabal videos on bitchute. Do your own research and do not listen to any MSM sources.
Continue the discussion below, any post from the list grabbed your attention this week, made an impression within the context of FIRE, maybe presented additional questions or an opportunity for further discussion here.
Reddit app allows sideways navigation to view across the table
UK FI bloggers posts from the last 7 days, share below any comments you have of bloggers posts you've read this week. One post getting alot of attention is Simple Living In Somerset post 'FIRE is for the Few, not the Many' from Wednesday, what do you think? With mobile apps the table can be scrolled sideways to view
With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors. So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful. Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable. Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors. Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are. With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk. If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred. 6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham. Note: I will update this post with the key offers closer to the time. 1. Practice Makes Perfect When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out. So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes. If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’. 2. Be Organised This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March). Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable. Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals. If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit. Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race. 3. Go Easy Early Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying. 4. Odds Boosts & VIP Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins. Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative. If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat. 5. Enjoy It Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job. 6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse! Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish? Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it. What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers? This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up. Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham. Extra place strategies are worth looking at. This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum. Anything I Should Be Looking Out For? One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings. This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out. Should You Book Time Off Work? Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week. That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier. However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise? Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March). The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end. Cheltenham Schedule Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020) 13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase 15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle 16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020) 13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase 14:50 - The Coral Cup 15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020) 13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase 14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final 14:50 - The Ryanair Chase 15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle 16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020) 13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle 14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup 16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup 16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Our Predictions Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers. Epatante Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse. Benie Des Dieux Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare. Envoi Allen Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts. Defi Du Seuil Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers. Tiger Roll Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that. Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section. It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread – here the best offers of the day will be discussed. If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide. Discount: £2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads. Discount code: BUILDUP Click the link to have the code automatically applied: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx The most important thing is to get involved! Best of luck and happy profit hunting!
A spreadsheet to track bets on horse racing including a formula to calculate each way bets from fractional odds depending on the outcome of each race?
I’ve been looking online for a while now and keep running into walls. I’m after a spreadsheet that has the following columns: A: Racecourse (eg Haydock, Aintree, Southwell) B: Time of race (eg 14:10, 15:50, 21:00) C: Horse (name of the horse I’ve bet on) D: Odds (fractional odds, eg 9/2, 4/1, etc.) E: Bet type (win or EW) F: proportion of the odds (if bet type is EW, this is usually ¼, sometimes 1/5. If bet type is win, it’s 1.) G: Stake (in points, eg 0.5, 1, 3) H: Actual staked amount (if bet type is win, copy the stake; if bet type is EW, double stake. Again, in pts) I: Outcome of race (win, place, pulled up, fell, non-runner etc.) J: Winnings (outcome from a combination of rows D, E, F, H and I.) J is where I’m really struggling, because there are so many connotations and outcomes, beyond my spreadsheet knowledge. And, it turns out, beyond my knowledge of how each way betting works in terms of what you win if a horse comes 1st, 2nd or 3rd etc. Hopefully someone here has a vast knowledge of Excel AND a wealthy knowledge of betting. I’ve got this far: https://ufile.io/24uimr0w Anyone fancy doing some excel wizardry, please? Thank you very much.
I’m after a fairly simple spreadsheet to track bets on horse racing, including a formula to calculate each way bets from fractional odds, depending on the outcome of each race.
I’ve been looking online for a while now and keep running into walls. I’m after a spreadsheet that has the following columns: A: Racecourse (eg Haydock, Aintree, Southwell) B: Time of race (eg 14:10, 15:50, 21:00) C: Horse (name of the horse I’ve bet on) D: Odds (fractional odds, eg 9/2, 4/1, etc.) E: Bet type (win or EW) F: proportion of the odds (if bet type is EW, this is usually ¼, sometimes 1/5. If bet type is win, it’s 1.) G: Stake (in points, eg 0.5, 1, 3) H: Actual staked amount (if bet type is win, copy the stake; if bet type is EW, double stake. Again, in pts) I: Outcome of race (win, place, pulled up, fell, non-runner etc.) J: Winnings (outcome from a combination of rows D, E, F, H and I.) J is where I’m really struggling, because there are so many connotations and outcomes, beyond my spreadsheet knowledge. And, it turns out, beyond my knowledge of how each way betting works in terms of what you win if a horse comes 1st, 2nd or 3rd etc. Hopefully someone here has a vast knowledge of Excel AND a wealthy knowledge of betting. I’ve got this far: https://ufile.io/24uimr0w Anyone fancy doing some excel wizardry, please? Thank you very much.
With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors. So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful. Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable. Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors. Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are. With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk. If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred. 6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham. Note: I will update this post with the key offers closer to the time. 1. Practice Makes Perfect When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out. So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes. If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’. 2. Be Organised This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March). Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable. Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals. If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit. Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race. 3. Go Easy Early Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying. 4. Odds Boosts & VIP Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins. Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative. If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat. 5. Enjoy It Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job. 6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse! Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish? Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it. What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers? This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up. Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham. Extra place strategies are worth looking at. This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum. Anything I Should Be Looking Out For? One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings. This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out. Should You Book Time Off Work? Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week. That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier. However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise? Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March). The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end. Cheltenham Schedule Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020) 13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase 15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle 16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020) 13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase 14:50 - The Coral Cup 15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020) 13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase 14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final 14:50 - The Ryanair Chase 15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle 16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020) 13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle 14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup 16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup 16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Our Predictions Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers. Epatante Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse. Benie Des Dieux Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare. Envoi Allen Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts. Defi Du Seuil Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers. Tiger Roll Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that. Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section. It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread – here the best offers of the day will be discussed. If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide. Discount: £2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads. Discount code: BUILDUP Click the link to have the code automatically applied: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx The most important thing is to get involved! Best of luck and happy profit hunting!
With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors. So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful. Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable. Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors. Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are. With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk. If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred. 6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham. Note: I will update this post with the key offers closer to the time. 1. Practice Makes Perfect When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out. So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes. If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’. 2. Be Organised This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March). Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable. Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals. If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit. Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race. 3. Go Easy Early Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying. 4. Odds Boosts & VIP Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins. Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative. If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat. 5. Enjoy It Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job. 6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse! Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish? Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it. What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers? This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up. Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham. Extra place strategies are worth looking at. This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum. Anything I Should Be Looking Out For? One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings. This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out. Should You Book Time Off Work? Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week. That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier. However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise? Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March). The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end. Cheltenham Schedule Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020) 13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase 15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle 16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020) 13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase 14:50 - The Coral Cup 15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020) 13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase 14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final 14:50 - The Ryanair Chase 15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle 16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020) 13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle 14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup 16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup 16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Our Predictions Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers. Epatante Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse. Benie Des Dieux Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare. Envoi Allen Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts. Defi Du Seuil Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers. Tiger Roll Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that. Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section. It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread – here the best offers of the day will be discussed. If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide. Discount: £2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads. Discount code: BUILDUP Click the link to have the code automatically applied: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx The most important thing is to get involved! Best of luck and happy profit hunting!
Keeping a close eye on Andrew Balding runner All You Wish to see if any market support. Clueless on debut but had a Group 2 Gimcrack entry but didn't run. Would have to be well-backed for me to even think about having a each way bet.
Interested to see the Tim Easterby Dark Angel colt Art Power at Hamilton today. Ran a nice debut at Newcastle but tired last furlong. Drop down to five looks positive and could be a each way bet if the price is right (4/1 at present)#horseracing
Hi eurovision!! Just like every year, I like to bet some money on who I think will win ESC. Last year I got it right and made around 4k GBP! I'd like to put some money on who I think will win this year (just because it's more fun, and I usually put the money as an 'each way' bet, meaning I'd still get some money if they end up in the top 4). So my question to all of you is, who do you think will win? I've personally got a feeling it will be Italy. Not only because the song is good, it's different from the usual pop songs you'd hear in Eurovision. I feel with Soldi it could actually be plaid in clubs and on the radio and people would like it. I also think it helps that the song is in Italian (makes it stand out), the guy is half Arabic/half Italian which is a nice middle finger to Italy's right-wing government and he's handsome and young (will appeal to gay voters). What do you guys think? Since I'd be putting the money as an Each Way Bet I wouldn't lose money unless he doesn't reach the top 4 spots, which seems quite unlikely, right? Thanks!
Hello, you may remember me from such tournaments as the April betting tournament and the first betting tournament. Well I'm back, and with two more tournaments for the World Cup! This outright tournament (OT) will focus on any outright bets whereas the next tournament will focus on any match bets. I will start a separate thread for that soon but it will mainly be in the daily threads in a similar manner to the previous tournament once the World Cup begins so don't worry if you don't get in at the start. In this OT anyone is able to enter and has an unlimited budget of units. The aim is to be in the most profit come the end of the World Cup. The maximum you can place on any one bet is 5u(2.50u for E/W bets), except for the World Cup Winner which can be up to 10u (Only one bet, other than one selection will be at 5u max). For any bet, the odds need to be included and with any multiples the odds need to be included for each part for transparencies sake, for any Each Way bets then also state to the amount of places your bet is with. The closing date for this tournament is once the opening match kicks off in Russia. With all that said, here are some interesting stats.
Past Winners:
These are the odds of the finalists for the past 8 World Cups:
Year
Winner
Odds
Loser
Odds
2014
Germany
6.00
Argentina
5.50
2010
Spain
5.00
Holland
11.00
2006
Italy
11.00
France
15.00
2002
Brazil
8.00
Germany
21.00
1998
France
8.00
Brazil
4.33
1994
Brazil
4.33
Italy
7.00
1990
West Germany
8.00
Argentina
15.00
1986
Argentina
5.00
West Germany
15.00
As you can see, no real outsider has won the World Cup or even been in the final (other than Germany in 2002) in this time so it feasibly leaves 6 potential teams for this World Cup; Brazil (5.50), Germany (6.00), Spain (7.00), France (7.50), Argentina (11.00) & Belgium (12.00) but who knows, maybe its time for an African team to make the next step up. Another fact is that either Brazil or Germany have made it to the semi finals since 1934, only missing the first ever World Cup, can the streak continue?
Past Golden Boot Winners:
Year
Top Scorer
Country
Played
Scored
Team Placed
2014
James Rodriguez
Colombia
5
6
Quarter-finalists
2010
Thomas Muller
Germany
6
5
3rd Place
2006
Miroslav Klose
Germany
7
5
3rd Place
2002
Ronaldo
Brazil
7
8
Winners
1998
Davor Suker
Croatia
7
6
3rd Place
In 7 of the 16 World Cups where there has been a sole winner of the Golden Boot, they have played for a team that made the finals. In recent history, at least, it has showed that players of teams that can reach the semi finals are very likely to be hunt for the Golden Boot. Brazil holds the record for the most Golden Boot winners with 3, Ronaldo winning most recently in 2002 when he had odds of 17.00. Before that, you have to go back to 1982 where Paolo Rossi of Italy was the top goalscorer whilst also being a World Cup winner. Here are the past World Cup goal records for some of the current favourites:
Player
Goals
2006
2010
2014
Messi
5
1
0
4
Neymar
4
-
-
4
Greizmann
0
-
-
0
C Ronaldo
3
1
1
1
Lukaku
1
-
-
1
Diego Costa
0
-
-
0
Cavani
2
-
1
1
Suarez
5
-
3
2
Muller
10
-
5
5
Higuain
5
-
4
1
Aguero
0
-
0
0
Hazard
0
-
-
0
Some names that aren't on the list include Jesus, Kane, Werner, Mbappe, Lewandowski who are all making their World Cup debuts and will hope they can follow in the footsteps of Thomas Muller and James Rodriguez who both won the GB on their WC debuts.
Past World Cup Discipline:
Year
Yellow Cards
Yellows/Game
Red Cards
Reds/Game
Average Booking Pts
2014
187
2.92
10
0.16
33.20
2010
261
4.08
17
0.27
47.55
2006
345
5.39
28
0.44
64.90
2002
272
4.25
17
0.27
49.25
1998
258
4.03
22
0.34
48.80
The most booking points in any match in Brazil 2014 was 105pts. It will be interesting to see if the new inclusion of VAR will see a rise of bookings but it must be remembered that VAR can only be used in the event of a 'clear and obvious error' or a 'serious missed incident' affecting the award of a goal, a penalty, a straight red card or a case of mistaken identity. These incidents are reviewed in the background, the VAR then tells the ref if this check has shown an incident and they will decide whether to act on the VAR's advice, watch the footage themselves or just carry on.
14:30 Queen Mary - Kimari @ 6.50 Wesley Ward obviously has an out-standing record with his two-year-olds at Ascot, so it’s a surprise to see one as highly thought of as this available at nice enough odds. She was very impressive LTO, despite missing the break, slamming a horse who went on to win next time out and doing it in a very good time. I couldn’t have a strong opinion on this one, though. 15:05 Queen’s Vase - Norway @ 4.00 Norway has long-looked like a potential St Leger type, so he should be winning this on his way to the Doncaster classic as Kew Gardens did last year. He ran a fine enough race in the Derby when ridden too prominently, and before that again ran well on seasonal re-appearance at Chester, both times looking a bit one-paced and as though he would benefit from the step up in trip. He won the Zetlands Stakes as a two-year-old, the same race Kew Gardens won, and looks to bring in a similar profile. 15:40 Prince of Wales’s - Crystal Ocean @ 5.50 I’ve spent the past couple of days flip-flopping between Sea of Class and Crystal Ocean, and ultimately I’ve ended up on Crystal Ocean. I would not put anyone off Crystal Ocean as an each way bet - he looks as big a scumbag each way bet as you’re likely to find at Ascot this week - but I've gone win only. Though I think he’s better over a little bit further and perhaps on faster ground, he’ll be trained to the minute for this by the Royal Ascot master. His performance in the King George was monstrous, only just pipped by the horse who won this last year, and it’s a testament to his constitution and ability that he has managed to come back from that. He's a high class colt who has less questions to answer than the others, and looks a little over-priced. Sea of Class, I think, might just be the best horse in training based on her performance in the Arc. She made up a stunning amount of ground, in a race that wasn’t ran at anything more than an even pace, so you can significantly upgrade her performance that day. There is a concern about her coming into this without a run, on soft ground, and she is clearly going to be trained for bigger targets down the line. If she had a prep run, I think she would win. 16:20 Duke Of Cambridge - Veracious @ 10.00 Veracious has ran some good races, especially at this track last season when third behind Alpha Centauri. That was her seasonal reappearance and not much was expected of her, but she ran a good race and then followed it up when third in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, before winning a Group 3 readily. She’s trained by a master who gradually brings out improvement from his older horses, and she’s bred by Frankel who’s progeny seem to run exceptionally well at Ascot. Her form this season has been a bit patchy, but her run LTO was much more like it and she should come forward again from that. 17:00 Hunt Cup - King’s Field @ 21.00 (find a big each way mega-place offer) It’s hard to be too bullish in a race like this, on ground like this, but King’s Field looks to have been set up nicely for this after a good prep run LTO in a Listed race. He picked up a knock in Dubai which cut his time out there short, but that run should put him bang on for this. His best form is over a mile, and though he hasn’t ran on soft ground yet, Irish horses tend to be much better at handling these conditions and he’s by Kodiac who’s progeny handle soft ground fine. Four-year-olds tend to run well in this race as they have the improving profile required, and he could run well at a nice price.
Bit of a struggle today boys. The Doncaster card is pretty poor to be honest. Looking forward to seeing how good Lazuli is. My only bet is a speculative each way bet at Carlisle: 1.40 Hoselry (took 5/2) and 355 Black Star Dancing (13/2). Had a nice each way yesterday on Global Esteem (25/1) that I mentioned in my post https://www.craigsbettingblog.co.uk/2019/09/gay-kelleway-can-lightning-really.html. Really promising run on debut. Any Fancies?
This week 12 yrs ago--Lehman Bros collapsed......(Best Interest) Explaining the Big Short and the 2008 Crisis
edit: thanks for the awards. I'd be a dick to take credit. Go check out the one-man-band who actually wrote it---I've been reading for a couple months, good stuffhttps://bestinterest.blog/explain-the-big-short/ (Best Interest) This post will explain the Big Short and the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse in simple terms. This post is a little longer than usual–maybe give yourself 20 minutes to sift through it. But I promise you’ll leave feeling like you can tranche (that’s a verb, right?!) the whole financial system! Key Players First, I want to introduce the players in the financial crisis, as they might not make sense at first blush. One of the worst parts about the financial industry is how they use deliberately obtuse language to explain relatively simple ideas. Their financial acronyms are hard to keep track of. In order to explain the Big Short, these players–and their roles–are key. Individuals, a.k.a. regular people who take out mortgages to buy houses; for example, you and me! Mortgage lenders, like a local bank or a mortgage lending specialty shop, who give out mortgages to individuals. Either way, they’re probably local people that the individual home-buyer would meet in person. Bigbanks, such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, who buy lots of mortgages from lenders. After this transaction, the homeowner would owe money to the big bank instead of the lender. Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)—deep breath!—who take mortgages from big banks and bundle them all together into a bond (see below). And just like before, this step means that the home-buyer now owes money to the CDO. Why is this done?! I’ll explain, I promise. Ratings agencies, whose job is to determine the risk of a CDO—is it filled with safe mortgages, or risky mortgages? Investors, who buy part of a CDO and get repaid as the individual homeowners start paying back their mortgage. Feel lost already? I’m going to be a good jungle guide and get you through this. Stick with me. Quick definition: Bonds A bond can be thought of as a loan. When you buy a bond, you are loaning your money. The issuer of the bond is borrowing your money. In exchange for borrowing your money, the issuer promises to pay you back, plus interest, in a certain amount of time. Sometimes, the borrower cannot pay the investor back, and the bond defaults, or fails. Defaults are not good for the investor. The CDO—which is a bond—could hold thousands of mortgages in it. It’s a mortgage-backed bond, and therefore a type of mortgage-backed security. If you bought 1% of a CDO, you were loaning money equivalent to 1% of all the mortgage principal, with the hope of collecting 1% of the principal plus interest as the mortgages got repaid. There’s one more key player, but I’ll wait to introduce it. First… The Whys, Explained Why does an individual take out a mortgage? Because they want a home. Can you blame them?! A healthy housing market involves people buying and selling houses. How about the lender; why do they lend? It used to be so they would slowly make interest money as the mortgage got repaid. But nowadays, the lender takes a fee (from the homeowner) for creating (or originating) the mortgage, and then immediately sells to mortgage to… A big bank. Why do they buy mortgages from lenders? Starting in the 1970s, Wall St. started buying up groups of loans, tying them all together into one bond—the CDO—and selling slices of that collection to investors. When people buy and sell those slices, the big banks get a cut of the action—a commission. Why would an investor want a slice of a mortgage CDO? Because, like any other investment, the big banks promised that the investor would make their money back plus interest once the homeowners began repaying their mortgages. You can almost trace the flow of money and risk from player to player. At the end of the day, the investor needs to get repaid, and that money comes from homeowners. CDOs are empty buckets Homeowners and mortgage lenders are easy to understand. But a big question mark swirls around Wall Street’s CDOs. I like to think of the CDO as a football field full of empty buckets—one bucket per mortgage. As an investor, you don’t purchase one single bucket, or one mortgage. Instead, you purchase a thin horizontal slice across all the buckets—say, a half-inch slice right around the 1-gallon mark. As the mortgages are repaid, it starts raining. The repayments—or rain—from Mortgage A doesn’t go solely into Bucket A, but rather is distributed across all the buckets, and all the buckets slowly get re-filled. As long as your horizontal slice of the bucket is eventually surpassed, you get your money back plus interest. You don’t need every mortgage to be repaid. You just need enough mortgages to get to your slice. It makes sense, then, that the tippy top of the bucket—which gets filled up last—is the highest risk. If too many of the mortgages in the CDO fail and aren’t repaid, then the tippy top of the bucket will never get filled up, and those investors won’t get their money back. These horizontal slices are called tranches, which might sound familiar if you’ve read the book or watched the movie. So far, there’s nothing too wrong about this practice. It’s simply moving the risk from the mortgage lender to other investors. Sure, the middle-men (banks, lenders, CDOs) are all taking a cut out of all the buy and sell transactions. But that’s no different than buying lettuce at grocery store prices vs. buying straight from the farmer. Middle-men take a cut. It happens. But now, our final player enters the stage… Credit Default Swaps: The Lynchpin of the Big Short Screw you, Wall Street nomenclature! A credit default swap sounds complicated, but it’s just insurance. Very simple, but they have a key role to explain the Big Short. Investors thought, “Well, since I’m buying this risky tranche of a CDO, I might want to hedge my bets a bit and buy insurance in case it fails.” That’s what a credit default swap did. It’s insurance against something failing. But, there is a vital difference between a credit default swap and normal insurance. I can’t buy an insurance policy on your house, on your car, or on your life. Only you can buy those policies. But, I could buy insurance on a CDO mortgage bond, even if I didn’t own that bond! Not only that, but I could buy billions of dollars of insurance on a CDO that only contained millions of dollars of mortgages. It’s like taking out a $1 million auto policy on a Honda Civic. No insurance company would allow you to do this, but it was happening all over Wall Street before 2008. This scenario essentially is “the big short” (see below)—making huge insurance bets that CDOs will fail—and many of the big banks were on the wrong side of this bet! Credit default swaps involved the largest amounts of money in the subprime mortgage crisis. This is where the big Wall Street bets were taking place. Quick definition: Short A short is a bet that something will fail, get worse, or go down. When most people invest, they buy long (“I want this stock price to go up!”). A short is the opposite of that. Certain individuals—like main characters Steve Eisman (aka Mark Baum in the movie, played by Steve Carrell) and Michael Burry (played by Christian Bale) in the 2015 Oscar-nominated film The Big Short—realized that tons of mortgages were being made to people who would never be able to pay them back. If enough mortgages failed, then tranches of CDOs start to fail—no mortgage repayment means no rain, and no rain means the buckets stay empty. If CDOs fail, then the credit default swap insurance gets paid out. So what to do? Buy credit default swaps! That’s the quick and dirty way to explain the Big Short. Why buy Dog Shit? Wait a second. Why did people originally invest in these CDO bonds if they were full of “dog shit mortgages” (direct quote from the book) in the first place? Since The Big Short protagonists knew what was happening, shouldn’t the investors also have realized that the buckets would never get refilled? For one, the prospectus—a fancy word for “owner’s manual”—of a CDO was very difficult to parse through. It was hard to understand exactly which mortgages were in the CDO. This is a skeevy big bank/CDO practice. And even if you knew which mortgages were in a CDO, it was nearly impossible to realize that many of those mortgages were made fraudulently. The mortgage lenders were knowingly creating bad mortgages*.* They were giving loans to people with no hopes of repaying them. Why? Because the lenders knew they could immediately sell that mortgage—that risk—to a big bank, which would then securitize the mortgage into a CDO, and then sell that CDO to investors. Any risk that the lender took by creating a bad mortgage was quickly transferred to the investor. So…because you can’t decipher the prospectus to tell which mortgages are in a CDO, it was easier to rely on the CDO’s rating than to evaluate each of the underlying mortgages. It’s the same reason why you don’t have to understand how engines work when you buy a car; you just look at Car & Driver or Consumer Reports for their opinions, their ratings. The Ratings Agencies Investors often relied on ratings to determine which bonds to buy. The two most well-known ratings agencies from 2008 were Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (heard of the S&P 500?). The ratings agency’s job was to look at a CDO that a big bank created, understand the underlying assets (in this case, the mortgages), and give the CDO a rating to determine how safe it was. A good rating is “AAA”—so nice, it got ‘A’ thrice. So, were the ratings agencies doing their jobs? No! There are a few explanations for this:
Even they—the experts in charge of grading the bonds—didn’t understand what was going on inside a CDO. The owner’s manual descriptions (prospectuses) were too complicated. In fact, ratings agencies often relied on big banks to teach seminars about how to rate CDOs, which is like a teacher learning how to grade tests from Timmy, who still pees his pants. Timmy just wants an A.
Ratings agencies are profit-driven companies. When they give a rating, they charge a fee. But if the agency hands out too many bad grades, then their customers—the big banks—will take their requests elsewhere in hopes of higher grades. The ratings agencies weren’t objective, but instead were biased by their need for profits.
Remember those fraudulent mortgages that the lenders were making? Unless you did some boots-on-the-ground research, it was tough to uncover this fact. It’s hard to blame the ratings agencies for not catching this.
Who’s to blame? Everyone? Let’s play devil’s advocate…
Individuals: some people point the finger at homeowners, saying, “You should know better than to buy a $1 million house on a teacher’s salary.” I find this hard to swallow. These people, surrounded by the American home-ownership dream, were sold the idea that they would be fine. The mortgage lender had no incentive to sell a good mortgage, they only had an incentive to sell a mortgage. So, it’s hard for me to put too much blame on the homeowners.
Mortgage lenders: someone knew. I’m not saying that all the mortgage lenders were fully aware of the implications of their actions, but some people knew that fraudulent loans were being made, and chose to ignore that fact. For example, check out whistleblower Eileen Foster.
Big banks: Yes sir! There’s certainly blame here. Rather than get into all of the various money-grubbing, I want to call out one specific anecdote. Back in 2010, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein testified in front of Congress. Here it is:
To explain further, there are two things going on here. First, Goldman Sachs bankers were selling CDOs to investors. They wanted to make a commission on the sale. At the same time, other bankers ALSO AT GOLDMAN SACHS were buying credit default swaps, a.k.a. betting against the same CDOs that the first Goldman Sachs bankers were selling. This is like selling someone a racehorse with cancer, and then immediately going to the track to bet against that horse. Blankfein’s defense in this video is, “But the horse seller and the bettor weren’t the same people!” And the Congressmen responds, “But they worked for the same stable, and collected the same paychecks!” So do the big banks deserve blame? You tell me. Inspecting Goldman Sachs One reason Goldman Sachs survived 2008 is that they began buying credit default swaps (insurance) just in time before the housing market crashed. They were still on the bad side of some bets, but mostly on the good side. They were net profitable. Unfortunately for them, the banks that owed Goldman money were going bankrupt from their own debt, and then Goldman never would have been able to collect on their insurance. Goldman would’ve had to payout on their “bad” bets, while not collecting on their “good” bets. In their own words, they were “toast.” This is significant. Even banks in “good” positions would’ve gone bankrupt, because the people who owed the most money weren’t able to repay all their debts. Imagine a chain; Bank A owes money to Bank B, and B owes money to Bank C. If Bank A fails, then B can’t collect their debt, and B can’t pay C. Bank C made “good” bets, but aren’t able to collect on them, and then they go out of business. These failures would’ve rippled throughout the world. This explains why the US government felt it necessary to bail-out the banks. That federal money allowed banks in “good” positions to collect their profits and “stop the ripple” from tearing apart the world economy. While CDOs and credit default swap explain the Big Short starting, this ripple of failure is the mechanism that affected the entire world. Betting more than you have But if someone made a bad bet—sold bad insurance—why didn’t they have money to cover that bet? It all depends on risk. If you sell a $100 million insurance policy, and you think there’s a 1% chance of paying out that policy, what’s your exposure? It’s the potential loss multiplied by the probability = 1% times $100 million, or $1 million. These banks sold billions of dollars of insurance under the assumption that there was a 5%, or 3%, or 1% chance of the housing market failing. So they had 20x, or 30x, or 100x less money on hand then they needed to cover these bets. Turns out, there was a 100% chance that the market would fail…oops! Blame, expounded Ratings agencies—they should be unbiased. But they sold themselves off for profit. They invited the wolves—big banks—into their homes to teach them how to grade CDOs. Maybe they should read a blog to explain the Big Short to them. Of course they deserve blame. Here’s another anecdote of terrible judgment from the ratings agencies: Think back to my analogy of the buckets and the rain. Sometimes, a ratings agency would look at a CDO and say, “You’re never going to fill up these buckets all the way. Those final tranches—the ones that won’t get filled—they’re really risky. So we’re going to give them a bad grade.” There were “Dog Shit” tranches, and Dog Shit gets a bad grade. But then the CDO managers would go back to their offices and cut off the top of the buckets. And they’d do this for all their CDOs—cutting off all the bucket-top rings from all the different CDO buckets. And then they’d super-glue the bucket-top rings together to create a field full of Frankenstein buckets, officially called a CDO squared. Because the Frankenstein buckets were originally part of other CDOs, the Frankenstein buckets could only start filling up once the original buckets (which now had the tops cut off) were filled. In other words, the CDO managers decided to concentrate all their Dog Shit in one place, and super glue it together. A reasonable person would look at the Frankenstein Dog Shit field of buckets and say, “That’s turrible, Kenny.” BUT THE RATINGS AGENCIES GAVE CDO-SQUAREDs HIGH GRADES!!! Oh I’m sorry, was I yelling?! “It’s diversified,” they would claim, as if Poodle shit mixed with Labrador shit is better than pure Poodle shit. Again, you tell me. Do the ratings agencies deserve blame?! Does the government deserve blame? Yes and no. For example, part of the Housing and Community Development Act of 1992 mandated that the government mortgage finance firms (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) purchase a certain number of sub-prime mortgages. On its surface, this seems like a good thing: it’s giving money to potential home-buyers who wouldn’t otherwise qualify for a mortgage. It’s providing the American Dream. But as we’ve already covered today, it does nobody any good to provide a bad mortgage to someone who can’t repay it. That’s what caused this whole calamity. Freddie and Fannie and HUD were pumping money into the machine, helping to enable it. Good intentions, but they weren’t paying attention to the unintended outcomes. And what about the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), the watchdogs of Wall Street. Do they have a role to explain the Big Short? Shouldn’t they have been aware of the Big Banks, the CDOs, the ratings agencies? Yes, they deserve blame too. They’re supposed to do things like ensure that Big Banks have enough money on hand to cover their risky bets. This is called proper “risk management,” and it was severely lacking. The SEC also had the power to dig into the CDOs and ferret out the fraudulent mortgages that were creating them. Why didn’t they do that? Perhaps the issue is that the SEC was/is simply too close to Wall Street, similar to the ratings agencies getting advice from the big banks. Watchdogs shouldn’t get treats from those they’re watching. Or maybe it’s that the CDOs and credit default swaps were too hard for the SEC to understand. Either way, the SEC doesn’t have a good excuse. If you’re in bed with the people you’re regulating, then you’re doing a bad job. If you’re rubber stamping things you don’t understand, then you’re doing a bad job. Explain the Big Short, shortly You’re about 2500 words into my “short summary.” But the important things to remember:
Financial acronyms suck.
Money flowed from the investors down to the mortgage lenders, and the risk flowed from the mortgage lenders up to the investors. In between, the big banks and CDOs acted as middle men and intermediaries.
When someone feels like their actions have no risk, or no consequences, they’ll behave poorly (big banks, mortgage lenders)When someone is given what seems like an amazing deal, they’ll take it (individual home owners).
CDOs are like empty buckets. Mortgage payments are like rain, filling the buckets. Investors buy tranches, or slices, across all the buckets. If mortgages fail, then the buckets might not fill up, and the investors won’t get their money back.
CDOs are intentionally complex. So complex, that not even the people grading them understood what was going on (ratings agencies).
Buying insurance on something your do not own is a behavior with potential for abuse (big banks)
Buying insurance on something for more than it’s worth is a behavior with potential for abuse (big banks). This is where most of the money in the financial crisis switched hands.
And with that, I’d like to announce the opening of the Best Interest CDO. Rather than invest in mortgages, I’ll be investing in race horses. Don’t ask my why, but the current top stallion is named ‘Dog Shit.’ He’ll take Wall Street by storm. If you don’t mind my cussing but you do like this content, consider subscribing to the email list to get these articles (and nothing more) sent to your inbox every week. I hope this post helped if you were looking for someone to explain the Big Short. Thanks for reading the Best Interest. Source: https://bestinterest.blog/explain-the-big-short/
https://valueburglar.wordpress.com/2019/03/14/cheltenham-festival-2019-day-4-tips/ Well, it’s fair to say that Day 3 didn’t go to plan. I tipped terribly by and large, resulting in 4pts loss, with a couple of places to ensure it wasn’t a total disaster. A great day for punters generally though, with a few favourites and other well-backed horses obliging. Still, we’re in it for the long run, and there’s another day of the Festival to have a go at. Follow at your discretion. Or don’t. Let’s see what happens! Triumph Hurdle A big race to kick off the day, with Sir Erec a well-backed favourite. So well backed, in fact, that’s he’s currently odds on – which means I’d say he’s there for the taking, despite being the most likely winner. Our pick in doing so is the ex-French Pic D’Orhy (8/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-3), whose second in a Grade 1 represents very useful form. Paul Nicholls won the Fred Winter in 2016 with a former French recruit making his British debut, and I rather think Pic D’Orhy would be able to do similar. He was working with Ryanair winner Frodon last week, which is an added bonus. I was going to have a chance on Hannon at a huge 40/1, but his form line through Chosen Mate has weakened after Sinoria ended up nowhere in the Mares’ Novices’ on Thursday. The others don’t make too much appeal – Tiger Tap Tap (Walsh/Mullins) has a lot to do to step up; Quel Destin will be running prominently and is therefore likely to be picked off; and Gardens of Babylon has 6L to find with Sir Erec. While Pentland Hills is unexposed and Adjali could bounce back, there are still question marks lingering over them – and the rest I’ve not mentioned – so I’ll stick with Pic. County Hurdle A wide open Grade 3, as it usually is. Time to refer to that handicap analysis thread on The Fat Jockey again, and we can see that Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls are the two trainers with the most consistency in this race. Mullins saddles three, including the favourite Whiskey Sour, who is prohibitively short, but Mr Adjudicator (12/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-5) looks like a decent each-way bet with Paul Townend on board. His second on reappearance this year came behind Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’Allen, and he was also second in the Triumph last year. This, allied with his trainer’s record in the race, is enough for me. Nicholls saddles just the one chance in Capitaine (12/1 with Bet365 as above), and though he may be better right-handed, he won a useful Grade 2 prize at Taunton last time out. He should come on for a wind operation and have a good say. Albert Bartlett Again, hugely open. The current ones at single digit prices all seem attractive, but a few are a little young and inexperienced – including Allaho. I’ve heard that Ruby Walsh reckons he has a massive chance despite his age, and he’s unexposed, but I’m not going to venture against trends with him. Equally, Birchdale is inexperienced – but clearly a smart prospect for Geraghty and Henderson – and Lisnagar Oscar might find this ground unsuitable. Both Commander of Fleet and Dickie Diver have a lot to like about them, but at a slightly bigger price I like Derrinross (12/1 each way with Coral, 1/5 1-5!), who would be much less under the radar if a Mullins/Elliott runner, but as he’s trained by Philip Dempsey, the odds still look good. I want value further down, especially with Coral’s five places, and the Hutchinson/King combo of Alsa Mix (33/1 each way with Coral as above) could provide some. Despite a fading 6th in the Challow last time out, her Grade 2 win at Sandown on heavy looked like a true staying performance, and I fancy a revival. Gold Cup The big one. Nearly every bookmaker is paying 4 places at 1/5 odds and there’s so much that’s been said about this race already that I don’t feel the need to add more here. We have some good quality in this race, and the market knows this accordingly, so value will be quite difficult to find. Bellshill would have been about 16s or 20s if he hadn’t won the Irish Gold Cup, and without Ruby on board, for a trainer desperately seeking to win the showpiece for the first time. However, I’m backing him to do so via Kemboy (11/1 each way Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 1/5 1-4), who ran very well on merit at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’s not exposed over 3 miles, and likely to appreciate an extra couple of furlongs. Of course, Presenting Percy has always had this as the aim; Native River is the defending champion; and Clan Des Obeaux has won well this year but stamina is a question. At bigger prices, not much stands out – maybe Invitation Only at 33s if he can sort out his jumping, but I’m going to stick with just the one in this race and enjoy what should be an absolute cracker. Foxhunter Challenge Cup Oh, I’d love to see a Pacha Du Polder hat trick in this race, but after a 55L defeat in his reappearance run, I can’t have much faith even at 20/1. The victor that day, Road to Rome (8/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power and others), is under a fantastic run and has the estimable Sam Waley-Cohen on board. We’ll take a chance on the ground and he’s a leading contender. At a huge price I fancy last year’s dead heater for third, Cousin Pete (40/1 each way with above bookies, 1/5 1-4), who looked back on song at Garthorpe in his most recent outing. He likes Cheltenham and I think he’s way overpriced at the moment. There are too many horses to talk about in this race and I think there’s loads of value away from the top six (all single figures), who have rather shown enough of themselves in the betting for the bookies to act accordingly. Grand Annual I must confess, I’ve not studied this one. However, with William Hill offering five places (1/5 odds), it would be rude not to avail oneself of their best odds on Gino Trail (20/1 each way, terms above), who rarely finishes out of the frame and is capable of a huge run. Second to Le Prezien in this last year, and a good win making all over C&D in December 2017, I think he’s a good value play for a place. Martin Pipe Yet again it’s time to consult the handicap guide from Fat Jockey, and the conclusions for this race are obvious: Gigginstown do well; Davy Russell has an excellent handicap record; Mullins and Nicholls are alright; and David Pipe (who of course wants a win) is good each-way. With multiple places offered by most bookies, it seems prudent to take Defi Bleu (14/1 each way with William Hill, 1/5 1-5) at the prices. He stays well, and if he can be a bit more fluent over the hurdles, he can definitely be in the mix. I’ve already highlighted ten runners, and the Martin Pipe isn’t a race I’m too hot on, so I’ll leave my Cheltenham there. A quick roundup – Dallas Des Pictons is a worthy Gigginstown favourite, if short; Early Doors was good in this last year; Discordantly could go well at a price… And there are too many more to mention. Tips Summary 1.30 – Pic D’Orhy @ 8/1 – 0.75pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-3) 2.10 – Mr Adjudicator @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-5) 2.10 – Capitaine @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365) 2.50 – Derrinross @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Coral, 1/5 1-5) 2.50 – Alsa Mix @ 33/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Coral) 3.30 – Kemboy @ 11/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 1/5 1-4) 4.10 – Road To Rome @ 8/1 – 1pt win (Betfair, Paddy Power and others) 4.10 – Cousin Pete @ 40/1 – 0.25pts e/w (above bookies, 1/5 1-4) 4.50 – Gino Trail @ 20/1 – 0.5pts e/w (William Hill, 1/5 1-5) 5.30 – Defi Bleu @ 14/1 – 0.5pts e/w (William Hill, 1/5 1-5) That’s 10pts in play. Here’s hoping for a huge day!
TIFU by owning a Golden Retriever while being Black.
Sigh. Work was rough today and all I wanted to do afterward was to sit on the couch and let the TV watch me while eating food not cooked by my own hands. The answer to that? Delivery. Food ordered, I let the dog into the yard to burn some energy and sat camped outside with him while waiting for the delivery. Doordash, Grubhub, Uber and everyone other than Jehovah's Witnesses has trouble locating my address strictly relying on GPS so it's nothing for me to post up and wait outside for when they are close, flag them down and go back inside for a contactless drop-off. Pertinent details before shit hits the fan; my neighbor and I share a fence with a doggy door as our pups are super close and you can bet each time that if my dog is outside, hers will follow for cross-yard playtime. This was the case today and probably bad judgement on my part to think that I would be able to break up the fun quickly. Both dogs were in the neighbor’s yard at the time the notification came through that the driver was pulling up and I had to call out a few times to get my dog’s attention. Neighbor thankfully whistled for her dog and I had to put on the ”voice” for mine to acknowledge I existed and then took off running for my door while waving to the driver who by this point was getting out of the car. Pup and I have a game called Runaway where I will take off yelling ”RUNAWAY” and literally he will chase after me like some human sized fetch-stick. I use this to my advantage until he realized I was putting him inside but managed to get him through the storm door and close the screen before he could run out. Then realized that I'd left the gate locked like an idiot with the driver standing right outside by this point. I didn't have a mask on at this point and neither did she so I yelled from the porch that she could leave the food by the mailbox and that is where the fun started. ”Is that your dog?” My bullshit meter didn't go off. I thought she was asking a question with an obvious answer because duh, she was a dog person so I engaged with dog-owner gushiness. Yes; blah, blah, blah... His name is XYZ... Wanna say hi? I’ll be nice because you brought my food. But she just stood there awkwardly for a moment, put the food down and quickly jumped back into her car. In my mind I was like, ”okay weird” but whatever. Snatched the food and went back inside. Went to wash my hands and from the kitchen window, I can see the full street where she is still parked outside. Thinking “okay weird...” again but didn’t dwell on it too much figuring that she was looking at the route to her next location. I went about my business of preparing to destroy my meal. Few minutes later, the dog begins barking manically at the door. I take a glance at the cameras and realize she is still out front parked directly in front of my mailbox. Uh...ok? What’s going on here? I go outside and try to get her attention but she is on the phone and doesn’t notice me. I walk up like I’m going to check the mail and she does pull off, but towards the back of the neighborhood that only has one way in and one way out. Lots of people make that mistake and so you’ll quickly see cars turning back around but she never came back. By this time, I think I’m losing my mind so I go back in but still watching the street for the car to pass. It never does. I don’t know, people are weird so I just left it at that and went back to eat. About ten minutes later, dog starts going ham at the door so I check the cameras to see two police cars sitting outside my house. I continue to watch the cameras realizing that yup, the cops are getting out of the car and walking back and forth in front of mine and neighbor’s yards. I go out to see if anything is wrong and they introduce themselves before saying they were called because a stolen Golden Retriever was reported at my address and if there was a dog in the home. It clicked that Driver had called the police and then explained my version of what happened. They were really respectful and apologetic but asked if I could get Sir Pup. I went ahead and opened the door for the dog who took off, ready to greet the new faces outside. His collar has tags matching the address with my name and phone number on it in case he was ever lost or stolen which was proof enough for them as it was obvious that they wanted to get this over as fast as possible. No hard feelings on either side, we were all walking away when Driver’s car slowly comes creeping from the back of the neighborhood. I yelled out to them that the lady was right there and they positioned themselves in front of her car in a way she would have to stop and speak with them. I don’t know if this lady was drunk or off her meds but she rolled down the window and was literally sobbing hysterically that she saw me take the dog from the neighbor’s yard, that animals get no justice and the icing on the cake? MY KIND only owns Pittbulls and Rottweilers. There was no way he was mine and needed to be protected. I honestly did not want to deal with that mess so sorry guys, this isn’t a tale of revenge; I went back inside and stayed the fuck on my couch. My day was already shitty. Everyone left a few minutes after that so I assume she got a warning. However, I did report the incident to the delivery service and was offered credits towards my next meal. I splurged that on a bakery and now am currently fucking up a slice of carrot cake, grateful it didn’t end worse. TL; DR Ordered food, racist delivery person thought I stole my own Golden Retriever and had a breakdown when I didn’t get carted off in handcuffs. Didn’t get shot but got cake in the end. Edit: Wow, Reddit! Waking up to the massive amounts of love and well wishes was amazing! Thank you so much for your kind words! I am going to do my best and go through every comment and private message. I wish I could share this cake with all of you! Carrot cake lovers unite! Happy to share this pile of awards with other great posts and comments! Taking the sound advice to keep a close eye on the dog when he goes out. Will also share with neighbor just in case! My husband did agree with many of you to seek further action against the delivery driver but I’m pretty torn on whether to do so. Things are hard out here for all of us including the less savory members of our community but I will take the day to think on the next steps. I appreciate the sub this was posting to for restoring it after being removed. I apologize that this topic bent the rules and didn’t think 100% before submitting. This was a way to vent. Thank you for allowing this to be a place of dialogue! Stay classy, everyone!
First | Previous | Next “Why don’t you go ahead and wish Tenna luck?” Sylnya suggested while she, Draevin and Peter headed down the hill towards the arena. “I still have some errands to do before the first match.” Draevin gave Sylnya a dubious look. “And by errands you of course mean you have bets you need to place.” “I don’t see why it’s any of your business what I do with my money,” Sylnya said. “You worry about seeing Tenna off and I’ll worry about me.” “What good would that even do?” Draevin asked. “And why are you so insistent?” “Because she was really upset after you blew her off yesterday. I’m sure she’d appreciate the encouragement.” “Hey, that wasn’t even my fault. Why don’t you blame Peter for that one? He’s the one that made plans with Faernyl for me.” Peter tried to slink back behind Draevin’s back where he would be out of sight. Sylnya glared at him. “That was kind of rude.” Peter looked at the ground and fidgeted with his glasses when they focused their attention on him. They were still walking toward the arena; Draevin led them around a gaggle of young gnome girls that sounded like they were gossiping about that self-righteous eldrin, Hanu. “It was a mistake,” Peter admitted to Sylnya after they passed by. “I’ll try not to impersonate him again but I didn’t think he’d actually follow through on those plans. How is that my fault?” Sylnya let out a weary sigh. “I don’t understand it, Drae, but that girl thinks the world of you for some reason. It would mean a lot to her if you wished her luck, and it would barely cost you a thing.” “I could do it for you,” Peter offered, “as a way to make up for the thing with Faernyl yesterday.” “No, no,” Draevin said. “I’ll do it. You wouldn’t know what to say, and I’d rather you not get in the habit of impersonating me.” Something caught Draevin’s eye and he tilted his head back to see a posse of eldrin approaching the arena from a different direction. The group was on a collision-course with their own and Istven was leading the way. “Though on second thought if you’re willing to keep Istven off my back for the rest of the day I’d consider us even.” “Deal,” Peter said without the slightest hesitation. Istven was striding confidently in his full battle-regalia. He drew quite a bit of notice and it helped that he was surrounded by richly-dressed eldrin nobles no doubt seeking favors in anticipation of his winning this year’s tournament. He wore a suit of custom-fitted plate mail that was burnished black with accents of polished silver gilding. The colors of his outfit mirrored his night-black skin, while the silver accents mirrored his argent white hair. The infamous black crown of King Haedril was mounted securely to the pauldron on his left shoulder. “Interesting,” Peter said. He already had a notepad out and Draevin watched the human’s dexterous fingers sketch out an approximation of Istven’s form remarkably quickly. Instead of the piece of charcoal Draevin had grown used to, it seemed Peter was now writing with a high quality pencil. Between that and the crystal engraving stylus Peter had to have spent a good portion of his winnings from yesterday; Draevin was just surprised he hadn’t upgraded his shabby wardrobe while he was shopping. “Is that really allowed?” Peter asked as he finished his sketch and tucked his notepad away. “A full suit of armor like that? It looks like he even has a sword at his hip.” “It’s allowed all right,” Sylnya told him. “You can bring anything you want into your matches as long as you can carry it. They only restrict you to one magical item.” “Is that why you let Kot jump up into your arms during your introduction yesterday?” Peter asked Sylnya. “I really don’t have time for a bunch of questions right now,” Sylnya answered. She turned to the path that led to the betting cages. “Go talk to Tenna, Drae and take Peter with you. I’ll meet you guys back at the booth.” She slipped into the crowd and was gone before Draevin could raise an objection. Istven was coming their way. “So was that offer real?” Draevin asked Peter. “Which?” Peter asked. He sounded a little uneasy. “The Istven thing or the Tenna thing?” “Istven,” Draevin said. He grabbed Peter by his shoulders and pointed him towards the approaching eldrin. “The guy’s unstable as all hell and dangerous to boot. Just convince him to leave me alone while still maintaining the Mutual Assurance pact we agreed to yesterday.” “And how exactly am I supposed to do that?” Peter asked. “Oh please,” Draevin said dismissively, “like your wheels aren’t already turning. I saw how quickly you adapted to the situation yesterday. This should be easy for you.” “No no,” Peter said loudly in a snobby voice Draevin didn’t recognize. “I’m quite all right thank you. You may leave.” He waved a hand at Draevin to dismiss him and Draevin recognized the hand. It was his hand. And he was wearing his face too! Peter had seamlessly transformed into a perfect copy of Draevin. Draevin looked down at his own clothes and saw that he was now in the purple robes of a Guild acolyte. Peter really did think fast on his feet. Istven marched right up to Draevin-Peter and said, “We need to talk.” The crowd of simpering eldrin nobles waited behind him. Peter-Draevin cleared his throat. “Public or private?” Istven looked pointedly at Draevin—the real Draevin—and visibly sneered. “Private obviously.” He pointed to acolyte-Draevin. “You. Leave us.” “Yes sir,” Draevin answered and was pleased to find his voice sounded different. It sounded feminine. He realized with a start that he’d been transformed into a copy of the nice elf girl that had helped them at The Pot earlier that morning. Draevin slipped away without incident, his only remaining concern being how long the disguise Peter had given him would last. It would be awkward trying to give Tenna some words of encouragement while wearing the face of another woman. When he got to the tunnel leading to the arena grounds the guards waved him right through without the slightest challenge. It was probably fine for him to sneak in like this, since as a fellow contestant he was allowed to enter anyways, but it still left him a bit uneasy. Was this what passed for security? They just let anyone wearing a purple robe into secure sections of the arena? He found Tenna pacing at the mouth of the tunnel. She was wearing pale blue Ice Armor robes with frozen spikes of hair in a blatant mimicry of Draevin’s own aesthetic. He couldn’t be too upset about it though since he was the one who had taught her those spells. When she saw him coming towards her she gave a frightened gasp. “I-I’m sorry, I didn’t mean to—” she started to say. “Relax,” Draevin told her, “it’s just me.” Tenna blinked. “You?” “Oh sorry, I probably look different. It’s me Draevin,” he told her. He wiped at his face, but it didn’t do anything about the illusion covering him. He realized that he didn’t actually know how to get rid of Peter’s illusion. The spell was probably weak enough that a little interference might be enough though. With an effortless gesture Draevin conjured a light mist of ice around himself and that did the trick: the illusion immediately collapsed. “Draevin!” Tenna squealed with glee. Her apprehension was replaced with excitement and she leapt on him and wrapped him in a hug. “It’s so nice to see you.” She hopped down and stepped back a pace. “What was with the disguise?” Rather than try to explain the situation with Istven, Draevin opted to simply tell Tenna, “I had someone dangerous looking for me.” Tenna got a worried look on her face when he said it, and he immediately regretted his choice of words. Even if they were technically truthful. “It’s nothing you need to worry about. Really, I’m fine.” Tenna studied her boots for a moment; they were heavy duty, complete with spikes for gripping tight on icy surfaces. That was at least one change between their styles, Draevin preferred normal shoes that he could slide around in when he needed speed. “Nice boots,” he complimented her. Even though Tenna had been looking at them already, she started for a second and seemed to recognize them for the first time. “Oh, yeah. They’re—” Maeve’s announcement cut off whatever Tenna had been about to say. “The first match of the day is ready to begin, will the fighters please make their way to the stage.” “That’s me,” Tenna groaned. “I wish they’d let me go second today. I don’t feel ready!” Draevin patted the smaller elf on the shoulder. “You’ll do fine. You and Sharack are both registered with the Guild so you shouldn’t be in any mortal danger.” Tenna looked horrified. Her eyes practically popped out of her head. “Mortal danger?” she asked in a tiny voice. That probably hadn’t been the right thing to say. Draevin tried to salvage things and leave her with some actual advice. “Don’t worry about that. Just remember that Lizard-kin like Sharack usually open aggressively. They have big mana pools, but they don’t recover as fast as us elves. If you can hold back his opening attack it’ll only get easier. Did you eat?” Tenna frowned. “Nooooo,” she whined. “My stomach gets all queasy if I eat before a match.” She reached under her shirt collar and pulled out a necklace. At the end was a small bird seemingly carved from purple amethyst. “Won’t Tambril’s Magpie get me all the mana I need anyway?” Draevin shook his head. “It’ll help but usually not a ton. You’d be surprised how many people are able to avoid it. You’re going to have to get over those nerves. Having a full belly is going to be a big advantage. Do you think you could hold down some water?” Her mouth twisted up on one side in an uncertain expression. “Probably?” she said. Her upward inflection made it sound like a question. “Then here,” Draevin said. He handed her the water skin from his belt. “Drink this.” She looked at the skin and groaned. “All of it?” she asked. “Yes, of course! I’d have you drink three if I had three. Everything you can fit.” He patted his pockets to find something more he could give her but that had been the only thing edible. There was an old tip among elf wizards for eating non-food before a match if your nerves were bothering you, but he decided against suggesting it: the elvish stereotype of eating dirt didn’t need any reinforcement. Tenna finished chugging down the water and handed back the empty flagon. “My stomach at least feels full,” she said, clutching one hand over her torso. She looked to Draevin almost like the kid he’d first met almost a century ago. She’d been whining to her mom at the time that the ice cream stand had been out of Draesicles so Draevin had made her one on the spot. She had the same wide-eyed look now as she’d had then. Though he’d never had kids Draevin imagined this was something like the pride a father must feel on seeing their kid off to their first day of school. “Good,” he told her, “as soon as that match starts you cannibalize everything you’ve got and burn that water into mana as fast as you can. You’ll wear him down.” Tenna started to move in to give Draevin another hug but he was already patting her on the shoulder, so he just kept doing that and it caused her to flush pink in embarrassment. “Well. I think I better leave before I get you in trouble.” “Right.” Tenna nodded. “Thanks for the help, Drae!” She walked to the edge of her fighter’s box with a confident stride and waved to some fans that cheered upon seeing her. Draevin hurried to leave so he could get to his seat before the match started. On his way out he caught a confused look from the guard who’d let him past when he looked like a Guild woman. He gave the guard a grin and a wink as he went by. Fans were hurrying about with food and drinks in hand as they scrambled to get to their seats before the first match started. Draevin had to weave between them to get to his booth. When he arrived Maeve still hadn’t started the introductions. Peter and Sylnya were already seated, and Sylnya had a ticket from the betting house clutched tightly in her hand. The human and dryad were already in the middle of a conversation. “…adjust all the time based on how many people are betting on each side,” Sylnya was explaining. “So that means more people are betting for me this time?” Peter asked. “Hey,” Draevin greeted as he took his seat. “Hi, Draevin,” Peter acknowledged, while Sylnya just nodded her head. “Well, yeah,” Sylnya continued, “with that rumor going around that you’re secretly a demon more people are willing to take a chance on you.” “What rumor?” Draevin asked. Instead of answering Sylnya shushed him and pointed towards the field. “Tenna is an elvish cryomancer representing Caldenia.” Maeve began the introductions. Tenna waved excitedly from inside her fighter’s box in their direction. Draevin returned the gesture. “She is carrying Tambril’s Thieving Magpie, and her wish if she wins this year’s tournament is to liberate the people of Trenal from Eldesian Tyranny.” Tenna held up the glowing crystal bird from around her neck for the crowd to examine, though from this distance it just looked like a flash of purple light. “Tenna wants everyone to know that the war between Caldenia and Eldesia has gone on long enough and will go down as a blight on Eldesia’s history.” At her announcement nearly every eldrin in the audience went studiously silent as well as anyone that didn’t want to piss them off. The elves in the crowd cheered loud enough to make up for it though. Draevin stood up and added his own voice to the mix in a rare display of patriotism that had more to do with supporting a friend than a nation. Maeve gestured an arm toward Sharack and waited for the last of the chatter to die down before continuing. The big green lizard-kin sported a floppy ridge of spikes going down his back starting at the top of his head. He wore what looked to Draevin like a black bathrobe but that he’d been told was actually something called a kimono and he had some kind of long wooden pole strapped to his back. Peter was sketching a quick drawing of Sharack in his notepad, and asked a quick question without looking up. “Why is he dressed so differently than Korack was?” “Korack’s just more northernized than most lizard-kin,” Sylnya told him. “That’s a nice way of saying he’s totally disconnected from his own culture,” Draevin added. Sylnya just scoffed. “Sharack is a lizard-kin chronomancer representing Emperor Loktai of the Kingdom of Kreet,” Maeve announced. Being so far to the south, lizard-kin didn’t typically attract large groups of fans, but there was a smattering of applause at the mention of Kreet. Draevin overheard Sylnya tell Peter, “Chronomancy is time magic.” Peter nodded along. “As his item, Sharack has brought Musashi’s Katana of Piercing Death and his wish if he wins this year’s tournament is to end Kreet’s famine,” Maeve continued. Sharack grabbed the pole on his back and pulled the end to reveal an impressively long one-sided blade inside. As he continued drawing it out it quickly became apparent that the blade was longer than Tenna was tall. It sloped back from the handle in a graceful arch and gleamed in the light. “That’s impressive,” Peter said while many of the crowd murmured among themselves appreciably. “What’s this about piercing death?” Draevin asked in concern. He was suddenly a lot less confident that Tenna would survive. Maeve signaled the judges. The bell chimed and the match began. Index | Next | Patreon
Crystal Dynamics Official - The Known Issues and Workaround Megathread
Hi all, Meagan here – I’m the Sr. Community & Social Media Manager at Crystal. Threads move fast on Reddit and often there are multiple reports on the same issue. We realized that not everyone may see when we respond to individual threads and are hoping to resolve that with this sticky post! We are scouring social media, Discord, and Reddit for your bug reports and feedback, but think a little context on what’s happening behind the scenes could help. But first, I want to say that we hate bugs as much as you do. Although a lot of the issues below happen infrequently within the scope of the entire player base, your experience is our top priority, and each of you deserve the best possible experience we can deliver. HOW WE GATHER BUG REPORTS If you aren’t familiar with bug reporting or Quality Assurance protocol, to solve complex bugs, we have to reproduce them first. This means recreating the exact circumstances that triggered the bug, which allows us to put protections in place and keep it from happening again. This process requires that we gather data from players, and then use that data to solve the puzzle. We are gathering information on bugs/crashes many ways:
From automatic platform reports: If you encounter a crash and your console prompts you to report a problem, please do! This information gets sent to us and is SUPER helpful, as it tells us what you were doing at the time of the crash. It’s easier for us to then pick out trends and address them!
Customer Support: Customer support reports are our second-best bet for gauging volume of issues and getting more information to help reproduce and resolve them. You can get in touch with our support team here: support.square-enix-games.com
Social Media: Social media gives us a great viewpoint into high-level bugs/issues individuals are facing, but it isn’t idea for one-on-one communication and information gathering. This is why we direct people on social to customer support, unless it is a known issue & we can quickly message a workaround. That being said, we have our community team and members of the dev team scouring social, reddit, discord, and more every day to gather and consolidate reports
Internal Testing: With the absence of our usual playtest lab due to the work-from-home environment, employee testing was incredibly important these past few months, and it was super cool to see everyone use their free time to rally behind bug-busting marathons. We’re still constantly playing our game and using it as an opportunity to surface bugs, tune, and optimize.
With this in mind, if you have a bug to report, there are some tips to help us get a clear picture of what bug/issue you are reporting. The more specific you can be, the better!
Platform & Region of Play
Headline/Summary of issue (Crashed. Froze. Cap has googly eyes)
Hero
Mission
What Happened (tell us what you were doing just before and when the issue happened)
Screenshot or Video (if possible)
If Multiplayer related, please also include power level and number of players in your Strike Team
When we surface a bug or bring in reports from Customer Support or Social Media, we prioritize them by severity and frequency, create our own internal strike teams with representation from all subject matter experts, and get to work to resolve it! INITIAL TROUBLESHOOTING If you encounter a bug that is keeping you from enjoying play, the best bet is to reload the last checkpoint. This will often resolve issues. If that doesn't work, fully exiting the app and reloading the game is the suggested next step. If the issue persists, we have implemented a backup save function: Backup Save: Available in the Settings menu, this feature backs up your save files. Your progress will be saved every hour. If you run into any issues with a corrupted save file, this can potentially help retrieve and revert to a different save file. Please note: This may not work for everyone, and will not address issues with save files that existed prior to this patch. KNOWN ISSUES AND WORKAROUNDS Here is the current list of our top priority known issues and when applicable, workarounds. We will update the status field with new information as we have it! UNABLE TO ACCEPT VILLAIN SECTORS
Presentation: Missions show up as already completed and do not refresh, which does not allow users to accept new ones in order to play them, causing them to miss out on rewards.
Status [9/18]: Actively investigating.
MISSION CHAINS NOT COMPLETING
Presentation: Some Mission Chains are not completing properly when all requirements are met. (Example: Reigning Supreme)
Status [9/19]: Actively investigating. Try advancing any other Mission Chain by a single step. This will trigger an auto-complete of the incomplete Mission Chains and rewards will be issued.
MISSING WEEKLY MISSION CRASH
NOTICE For the time being we suggest you hold on refreshing Weekly Missions if you see one missing.
Presentation: For those seeing a missing Weekly Mission, refreshing it would result in a crash.
Status [9/19]: We are actively investigating.
THE MISSION “INTERROGATION ANXIETY” CANNOT BE COMPLETED
Presentation: Rarely this presents as an inability to continue in the mission Interrogation Anxiety due to not being able to interact with specific characters.
Status [9/6]: We are actively investigating.
VARIOUS PS4 TROPHY BUGS
Presentation: Reported issues with an array of trophies, including: Former Glory: Complete the “Iconic Avengers" mission chain Old Fashioned Beat Down: Complete HARM Challenges I to V The Best Defense: Defeat any 20 different enemy types Tentative Peace: Complete 15 Villain Sectors Gold Star Success: Complete 100 assignments Holding it Down: Complete 30 War Zones at Challenge III or higher rating
Status [9/18]: Fixed several known issues around PS4 Trophy bugs. We are actively investigating the remaining.
UNLOCKED OUTFITS REVERTING TO LOCKED STATE
Presentation: This presents to some players in two ways:
1) This presented as costumes that were previously unlocked through campaign progress - such as the Stark Tech outfits - reverting to a locked state. 2) This presented as costumes that were previously unlocked through online play - such as Hero Challenge Card rewards, pattern drops, and faction vendors - reverting to a locked state
Status [9/19]: Most of these have been fixed, but there are some that haven't, including Iron Man's Iconic Outfit.
VARIOUS SKILL POINT BUGS
Presentation: Some characters are either missing a Skill Point or have an extra one.
Status [9/19]: We are actively working towards a fix.
COMMUNITY CHALLENGES NOT UPDATING IN REAL TIME
Presentation: While progress is not appearing in-game, it is still being tracked on our end.
Status [9/5]: We are working to optimize the system and implement a fix so that players can see their combined progress in real-time!
Potential Workaround: N/A
MATCHMAKING ISSUES
V1.3.0 addressed several matchmaking issues. We are still working on improving this more.
RESOLVED ISSUES
CHARACTER DUPLICATION/SWAPS ON GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE
Presentation: This presents as a rare bug with late-game campaign players, where they are loaded into the Golden Gate Bridge as the wrong character.
Status [9/8]: This should be resolved - if you encounter this bug, please contact customer service so we can continue to investigate.
CHALLENGE CARD POINTS NOT UNLOCKING
Presentation: Hero Challenge Cards were not reflecting points earned through daily or weekly challenges.
Status [9/5]:Resolved: We have fixed an issue where Hero Challenge Cards were not properly reflecting earned points. We are also in the process of retroactively granting lost points, although this process may take several hours to complete. Thank you for your reports!
My daughter is devastated, did we do the right thing?
My fiance and I (both 33) have a long-time friend (36F) who lives a carefree lifestyle. My daughter (14) idolizes our friend and I'm fine with that. Recently, for my daughter's birthday, my fiance, our friend, and myself took my daughter to get her nose pierced. I'm not asking for advice on that. Afterward, we went back to our friend's apartment. We were watching a movie when our friend's phone rings and she has a short conversation with someone. She says, "hey I hope it's cool but a new friend of mine wants to come say hi." We've never had an issue with any of her friends and have met many wonderful people through her. The friend (26M) arrives and he's so drunk he can barely have a conversation. My fiance and our friend had had a drink or 2 each but as the DD I did not. We're not big drinkers but my daughter has been around alcohol and isn't interested in it. I'm trying to talk to our friend while fiance is trying to make conversation with the guy friend. The entire time, guy friend is staring at my daughter. I didn't notice until both fiance and my daughter start texting me that this man is making them feel uncomfortable and they want to go home. So I tell our friend that it's late and we're going to head home. At this same time, the guy friend starts saying he's a middle school teacher, he loves school and he bets she has a Tiktok. My daughter says she does know of Tiktok but doesn't have one (it's a lie but she's uncomfortable and I support her keeping her social media private). I'm gathering my things as we say our goodbyes, when my daughter feels uncomfortable enough with this man to get up and leave. He tries to follow her. My fiance puts himself between this man and my daughter and says, "nope." She's putting her shoes on and I hear the guy friend say, "this isn't the hill you want to die on, man." Fiance is taken aback and says yes absolutely this is a hill worth dying on. The guy friend is making fists and trying to get past my fiance to continue trying to ask her for her Tiktok name. Fiance says, "I know what you are," and the guy friend says, "that's a bold accusation," but doesn't stop trying to get to my daughter. I hug my friend and we leave. Walking to the car, my daughter starts saying she's so relieved we left and fiancé is absolutely fuming. To him, the fact that the guy knew exactly what he meant by "i know what you are" was confirmation of his theory that this guy is a creep. On the way home, he calls our friend and says "i think he's a real creep, trust me, get him out of your house". Whether or not she does, we don't know. The next morning, another mutual friend (35M) starts asking questions about what happened. We recount the details to him honestly and he says he was texting with someone who knows the young guy friend and confirms that he's a creep, with screenshots of their conversation. Since then, I've spent time with our long time friend and we were fine but she's upset at my fiance for calling her new friend a pedophile. She claims my fiance was drunk and doesn't know what he thinks he saw. I maintain my stance that I was sober and my daughter was uncomfortable so I don't need any other information to keep new friend away from me and my kid. BTW, we're the boring parents of the friend group, we live in the suburbs and we don't make it into the city to hang out very often. Long time friend texted my daughter and asked for her input. My daughter asked what she should say and I encouraged her to tell the truth, which is what she did. Long time friend says she would never knowingly put her in any danger. I think everything is fine. Long time friend is giving fiance the silent treatment. He sends her a text saying it'll be the last one until she can apologize for choosing the new friend of 1 week over our family. She texts me that she doesn't understand what has happened and she's glad she has new young guy friend to hold her hand while she cries that she's losing my fiance, her best friend. I restate my stance again that I stand with my kid, I want to be friends but she's invalidating my daughter's experience. Long time friend says, "so I'm just wrong" and there's no room for anyone else's opinion and that she feels like we don't want her to ever make new friends. She ends our friendship. My daughter is devastated that her idol is gone from our lives. She thinks she caused this argument and I have not been able to convince her that her experience that evening is very important and that none of this is her fault. Did we do the right thing by standing firm that this young guy is not someone we want in our friend group or around my daughter? Should we have given him a chance to meet us sober? How do I show my daughter that this was not her fault? Edit: Wow this really blew up! Thank you all for your wonderful advice and confirmation that we did right by my daughter. I appreciate all the awards, too. I didn't expect this reaction! For everyone saying to report him, I have figured out that he was a middle school teacher or perhaps a teacher's aide in his home state and is currently getting his master's in education nearby which is why he's in our state. He isn't currently working as far as I can tell so I don't have anywhere to report him to, but I have plenty of information now. His home state has their criminal records searchable for a fee you pay regardless of whether your search turns anything up. In my state, he only has some traffic violations (but they're serious, like hit & run type stuff). He is not a sex offender and in fact a Google search reveals him to have a very wholesome background which might be how he's been able to fly under the radar. I'm relieved I didn't get more haters about drinking in front of my kid. We don't really drink and I think it's important for her to see how people draw the line. It wasn't a party, it was just my 3 and one friend watching a movie and talking. Those who don't get why friend had my daughter's number, this friend was deeply involved in our lives to the point that friend referred to my daughter as her adoptive or honorary daughter and my daughter viewed her as more of an aunt. This worked for us for a long time. She had never abused this power before this incident. For the people who asked how can I even ask this, I'm not actually questioning whether we should meet him again sober but gathering opinions on why that's a ridiculous request. I had not even thought about the grooming aspect so many of you brought up! Everyone who shared their stories and experiences in the comments, I wish I could hug you all (if you are comfortable with it!) I wish you had people who stood up for you, supported you, and defended you. You are brave to share and I read every comment with tears streaming. My daughter is dealing with it. We are considering counseling as an option, thanks everyone who suggested it. Even if just short term I like her to know it's there if she should want it. Fiance is getting a big head over all of his support lol. Thanks again, everyone! ❤
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Each Way Arbing Part 2: How to Place & Lay an Each Way Value Bet Beyond Matched Betting - Duration: 8:52. Printing Money 4,136 views. 8:52. I've started my Each Way, No Lay experiment and will update with any progress over the next few weeks. I'm initially starting with £0.50 each way and hoping to increase this over time. Each Way ... www.elitebettingsystem.com Just a quick guide on how to use Bet365's Each Way Extra function. Looking for a instructional video on How To Put An Each Way Bet? This practical tutorial explains accurately how it's done, and will help you get good at betting and horse racing. EACH-WAY BETTING & EXTRA PLACES: How I Make My Biggest Profits - Duration: 6:39. Beating Betting 23,890 views. 6:39. Betting strategy - How to always win at betting in the long run - Duration ...
