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r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season - #20-11

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

Players whose average rank had them land in places 20-11 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with.
Below you will see write-ups from rankers summarizing the players' 2019 season and why they were among the best in 2019. Stats for each player are from this season and are included below. Additionally, their previous ranks in this long running series are also available for all of you.
Methodology
LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY
  1. A CALL FOR RANKERS just after the Super Bowl.
  2. Rankers for each team nominated players to rank. 10 Games Played Minimum Threshold. Players are associated with the team they finished the 2019 Season with.
  3. The Grind. Utilize ranking threads for individual rankers broken up by positional group. Users were tasked with ranking players within the following tiers based on their evaluation: T-25, T-50, T-100, T-125 based on 2019 regular season only. There were no individual case threads. There were no arbitrary position limit caps. Just questions and rankings.
  4. Users submitted their individual Top 125 list. Ranking out to 125 is new for this year.
  5. User lists were reviewed for outliers by me with assistance from two former rankers. Users were permitted to correct any mistakes found. Once complete, lists were locked.
  6. Reveal the list… right now.
So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 20-11 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R N/R 32
Written By: uggsandstarbux
Khalil Mack. Von Miller. JJ Watt. Those are the names that come up when you mention edge players in the NFL over the last half a decade. Yet none have as many sacks as Danielle Hunter in the last two years. Hunter is continually passed over in the conversation of edge rushers. Even among young edge rushers like the Bosa brothers, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Bradley Chubb, Hunter is forgotten. He only received 4 All Pro votes from AP (of a possible 50). He failed to make PFF’s All Pro team. Is it because he wasn’t a 1st round pick? Is it because the Vikings defense was already dominant before his arrival?
Hunter has improved every year he’s gotten into the league (88 pressures this year vs 67 last year vs 55 in 2016). His first couple years in the league, he rotated in behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robinson. Yet he holds the record for most sacks before his 25th birthday and was one of only a handful of players in 2019 with double digit sacks and 15+ TFLs last season. He earned an 89.0 overall grade from PFF and forced 3 fumbles this year.
Beyond the numbers, Hunter is a unit. He came out of LSU as one of the more raw pass rushers in his draft. However, under the tutelage of the mighty Andre Patterson, Hunter has become one of the most athletic, versatile, technical, dominant edge defenders in the game. He can beat you with a pure bull rush, but he can also beat you with his speed and agility. He’s picked up Everson Griffen’s deadly spin move and has the motor to work through double teams. He can win with an inside move, or he can play pure 3T for an entire game (a la vs NO). He’s got a great understanding of the game and is a force to be reckoned with. If you’re placing bets for DPOY in 2020, don’t waste your money on the big name guys like Aaron Donald (+750) or Khalil Mack (+1100). Don’t spend it on young up and comers, lke Nick Bosa (+1300) or TJ Watt (+1500) either. Place it on Danielle Hunter (+2300). He’s going to continue dominating as he gains more recognition and climbs toward stardom.

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R
Written By: MysticTyph00n
At the beginning of the 2019 NFL season Bruce Arians said:
"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot,"...."He's never coming off the field."
Bucs fans thought this could be very well true in BA's system, especially with the departure of Desean Jackson which only really left Mike Evans as the only other real target on the team.
The 3rd round pick from Penn State showed up big time this year after having two relatively quiet seasons. Through 13.5 games (missing the final 2.5 due to a hamstring injury) he amassed 86 receptions for 1,333 yards, 9 TDs and only one drop(In fact he's only had 2 drops total in 2018 & 2019)He very well could have gone over 100 receptions , 1,500 yards as well as double digit TDs, but that's just projecting right?
According to PFF he was an absolute monster in the slot with an outstanding 96.5 grade, which shows he can line up anywhere on the field and still produce big time for the Buccaneers.
In 2020, I honestly expect Chris Godwin to have close to the same production, and possibly even better with how much he produces from the slot.
Please don't leave us…

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 70
Written By: Zzyzx8
Selecting a guard 6th overall was a bold movie for second year GM Chris Ballard, even one as highly touted as Quenton Nelson. Casual fans hated it, while draft junkies loved it. Two years later, it’s become clear that the pick was a home run. Nelson’s selection single handedly turned around a unit that was largely responsible for a slew of injuries to Andrew Luck into one of the best units. Nelson’s second year was only better, cementing himself as one of the best guards in the league, a true road grader. He spent the past year terrorizing nfl defensive lineman en route to his second pro bowl and all pro selections. Plus, he pulled off what was by far the best touchdown celebration of the season

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R 18
Written By: the_fuzzy_stoner robdog1330
I would just like to start with a moment of silence for the fans of the New York Jets after Jamal Adams recently demanded a trade from that inept organization with a dumpster fire of a coach in Adam Gase.
Anyways, after an incredible sophomore season, Adams has kept up with his awesome play in his third season as one of the NFL's best and most versatile defensive players as well as the clear-cut best player on a football team that somehow won seven games. Adams, also known as President 'Mal, recorded an interception (which was returned 61 yards to the house), 7 passes defended, 11 hurries, and 36 stops, but that's not all! Adams also garnered 6.5 sacks (which is amazing for a DB) and forced two fumbles (like this one he returned to the house on my guy Daniel Jones 😔). With his exceptional play, the star safety was named to the 1st Team All-Pro as well as his second Pro Bowl selection (an honor which none of his other Jets teammates got this year).
What makes Adams so special is that he is exceptional against both the running and passing game. Whether he's with Gang Green or another franchise next year, I'd expect another stellar season out of Jamal Adams in 2020 (assuming there is one) and even as a Giants fan who watched him dominate my team this past season, I really appreciate the guy's play.

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R N/R
Written By: broccolibush42
DERRRRIIIICK HENRY!!!
This part man part tractor was the plow that turned our barren field into a bountiful wheat field full of Nashville Hot Chicken. This beautiful muscly man with a poop rat tail decimated opponents and General Sherman'd the AFC South. Totaling at 1540 yards and 16 Touchdowns in 15 games, with 6 coming from a slow start in a Mariota lead offense, he caught fire and dragged his nuts all over teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Colts, Texans, Raiders and was showing just absolute dominance on the field. (Sadly we arent able to take the playoffs into account otherwise i'd gush over how he embarrassed a couple of scrub one and done teams).
Henry has this certain tenacity and a godlike level of endurance that just makes him an absolute beast in the 2nd half. He is just able to keep going, and going, and going, until finally, players get tired of it and turn into lead blockers for him. He is extremely hard to tackle to. Take a look at this play against the Chiefs in week 10, guys just bounce off him like he's running through toddlers. Derrick Henry is so hard to tackle that, according to PFF, Henry had over 1200 of his 1540 total yards after contact. Like this dude was getting hit at the line of scrimmage and he is just like, fuck this shit, i aint no dion lewis, and keeps going. How is this guy even real???
Another thing about Henry is his speed! Henry is a 6'3" 240 pound dude running 20+ MPH down the field when he breaks the open one. Like look at this speed he gets vs the Browns in week 1. Or this one against the Jags where he outruns guys and stiff arms the ones who barely managed to keep pace. Speaking of stiff arms, Derrick Henry has one of, if not, the BEST Stiff Arm in the league. If I had to pick a way to die, I think I would like Henry to stiff arm me in the face running at me at 21 miles per hour with this face, because there would be no greater honor to a titans fan than death by Henry. That concludes my Henry jerk fest. Here are some more highlights. and here are the real link.

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/R 84 N/R 28 31 13
Written By: DTSportsNow
Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He wound up missing his rookie season due needing to receive microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason and dealing with a bone bruise during the season. Since then he's received 4 All-Pro designations and was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade team. He's also become the 1st TE in NFL history to have 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Not bad considering how his career got started.
In 2019 he finished his 2nd straight season of 1,200+ yards and 3rd straight season leading the league in deep receiving yards by a tight end (274). He finished top 4 in overall TE grade for the 4th straight year (85.1), and was named to his second 2nd-team All-Pro designation. In the Sunday Night Football contest against the Chicago Bears he caught his 500th career reception, becoming the fastest TE in NFL history to reach that mark.
There's no doubt that Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the game, and winding up in the top 20 proves many believe him to be one of the very best players in the league. Since Gronk's decline it's essentially been between him and George Kittle for the top player at the position. He's a key component of what Andy Reid and the Chiefs like to do on offense, even as stacked as the offence is. With a Super Bowl victory and a few records to his name already his legacy will be decided by how long he can keep up his premier play. His partnership with Patrick Mahomes should take him to a locked up Hall of Fame bust.

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 100 74
Written By: Dahki
In 2017, sb nation wrote an article claiming that Ryan Ramczyk wasn't a first round talent at LT. The site went so far as to say he would benefit from a switch to RT. In short, they ended up nailing that on the head. The three-year vet has spent almost the entirety of his career anchoring the right side of the Saints O-line after being picked at 32 overall, and boy, has it worked out for both the team and the Wisconsin alum.
Ram makes the /nfl top 100 list for two reasons. First, he was really good. Second, we really wanted to hammer in the idea that the Saints O-line as a whole was really good. Most notably, Ram exits the 2019 season with his first first-team all pro, and he was more than deserving of it. Similar to teammate Terron Armstead, Ram refused to allow Brees or Teddy to be touched, giving up no sacks on the season. Even better, Ram kept his QBs almost squeaky clean in the pocket, allowing just one hit on the entire season, good for 2nd best in the league among nominated tackles. And Ram didn't just do well in pass pro; he was PFFs top graded OT when run-blocking, showcasing his power and quickness from his spot. In total, Ram spent the 2019 season as the biggest challenge for opposing D-lines to overcome when facing the Saints.

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
32 93 23 8 2 21 17
Written By: CokeZ3ro
It's a bird, it’s a plane, no it's Jet Jones! In his 9th season Julio continues to be one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL, and the undisputed best player on the team. He’s a force that defenses must give their full attention, and even then he can explode. Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his influence and abilities still shape the play, and better everyone around him. This past offseason Julio agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $66 million, making him the NFL’s highest paid WR, and extending him to 2023. Even though 2019 was a down year statistically, Julio continued to show why the money is worth it. In a “down year” Julio was 2nd in reception yards, 3rd in Yards/Game, and 1st in Scrimmage Yards/Touch, and made his 6th consecutive Pro-Bowl.
But stats can hardly capture the elite combination of athleticism and skill that makes Julio so great. A combination perfectly captured here where Julio is able to jump over the coverage of CB Leodis McKelvin and then tiptoe to complete the coverage on the way down. Later that same game, with the Falcons against the wall, Julio showed that no man can catch him in a 53-yard burst (shoutout to Jake Matthews for the Pancake Block). Julio utilized his route skills to make CB Pierre Desir eat turf before making a 34-yard reception; which likely would have been much more if Ryan didn’t underthrow it. He’s pretty good at catching too, exhibited as reaches over CB Quincy Wilson and manages to hold onto the ball through tackles from Wilson and SS Clayton Geathers to score. Doesn’t matter who you are, Luke Keuchly, Marshon Lattimore, AJ Bouye; doesn’t matter. bUt hE dOEsn’T gET tOUchDoWnS I hear the Fantasy owners say. Watch this and notice how often in the redzone Julio is serving to support his team (blocks, inside presence, taking double defenders), or is just ignored. He’s open more often people realize.
Even in a disappointing season for the Falcons, Julio continues to shine through as one of the NFL’s premiere combos of athleticism and skill. Julio is and will continue to be an absolute force for the offense.

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/R N/R N/R N/R 60 24 100
Written By: Beehay
In my write up of ChanJo last year, I mentioned that the return to the 3/4 (even if it's under Vance Joseph) will be huge for his stats. And boy howdy was it! At 30 years old and after double digit sack totals for 5 straight years, Jones set a career high of sacks at 19 this year. He had 8 Forced Fumbles, 53 Tackles, and 26 QB hits. Most of his stats improved from 2018, some more drastically than others. His pass coverage marginally improved but why the hell would you really want him to cover guys? (Don't say it Niners fans, DON'T SAY IT)
Chandler Jones is the prototype for edge defenders. He is what all other Defensive Coordinators wish they had. Strong, fast, smart, consistent. Here's a guys opinion and a breakdown. Here's some highlights because not everybody watched all 16 Cardinals games last year and I don't blame them. I think he will rank even higher next year if he stays healthy because he will finally get to settle into a defense again. Even if it's Vance Joseph's.

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R 97
Written By: Letsgomountaineers5
Where to begin with Ronnie Stanley? Oh, how about a nearly minute long clip of him absolutely bullying First Team All Pro and NFC DPOY Chandler Jones. You like that? (Sorry Cards fans, but hey we all know Chandler Jones is a beast). Ronnie Stanley was the best LT in the league. No wait, actually he was the best overall tackle in the league. Actually, Stanley was the best lineman in the league, bar none. I truly believe Stanley was a top 5 player in the NFL last season and even tried (and failed/came to senses) to argue Stanley as a top 2 player. His dominance on the left side of that line was unprecedented.
I know stats don’t paint the entire picture, especially for OL, but I have to start there because his stats were unworldly as a blindside protector facing the best pass rushers the NFL has to offer. Going against the likes of TJ Watt twice a year, Carlos Dunlap twice a year, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, Nick Bosa, Shaq Barrett (need I go on), he allowed zero sacks and six pressures on 445 pass blocking snaps. Of tackles with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow 6 pressures or less, he was the only one. Wait, the only one? Let’s expand. 10 pressures on 400 snaps? Hmm. Only Ronnie Stanley. 15? Hmm only Ronnie Stanley. 20 and no sacks? Only Ronnie Stanley. Unreal.
So how does he do it? Well for starters, he has an elite pass rusher’s explosion as an offensive lineman. He can pack a pop that will knock the best rushers off line or on their ass without overextending. Just ask Nick Bosa. Refer back to the Chandler Jones lowlight reel for a second and check out how often he simply beats Jones (one of the most explosive and best bending edge rushers in the game) to his spot time and time again. Stanley is out of his stance so fast it looks like he’s false starting and, be it film review/sixth sense/sheer athleticism (my money is on all three), he hits the pass rushers’ marks before they do. Sometimes, he even chips defenders to the ground he doesn’t have a responsibility for. Because of these reasons, he’s basically the only lineman in the game not playing catchup and is tremendously equipped to react to counters. In the run game, he was a driving reason behind that team’s record setting running success. He can be a mauler, but with his speed also can pull like the best guards in the game and lead block for some of the fastest players in the game.
At the end of the day, his dominance in both pass blocking and run blocking makes him a worthy top 15 player, and if not for a tendency to underrate linemen, I believe he should’ve been a shoe-in for the top 10. If you read this far, thank you. Now I need to go puke after that glowing endorsement for a Raven.

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

Unveiling of ranks 10-6 will take place Monday, July 6 instead of Tuesday. Unveiling of ranks 5-1 will take place on Thursday, July 9. Thank you!
submitted by MikeTysonChicken to nfl [link] [comments]

Offseason Review Series: The 2020 Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts

Division: AFC South

Coaching Changes

Colts lost defensive line coach Mike Phair to the Panthers and replaced him with Brian Baker who is most recently out of Alabama. Mike Groh reunites with Frank Reich as he was hired as wide receivers coach, while Patullo moved to the role of pass game specialist to accommodate. Tyler Boyles was signed on as the assistant to the head coach to replace Parks Frazier who is moving to offensive quality control coach.

Free Agency

Players lost/cut
Name Position New Team
Adam Vinatieri K Free Agent
Clayton Geathers S Free Agent
Joe Haeg T Buccaneers
Jabaal Sheard DE Free Agent
Eric Ebron TE Steelers
Devin Funchess WR Green Bay
Pierre Desir CB New York Jets
Quincy Wilson CB New York Jets
Adam hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but I doubt he comes back to the NFL. He struggled throughout the year before going on IR. Geathers is a great character guy who began the season as the starting strong safety, but slowly lost reps to the impressive rookie Khari Willis. Haeg is the only guy the Colts probably wanted back as he’s a capable backup at all five slots on the line. Sheard is getting up there in age, Ebron seems to have made a business decision, and Funchess was the worst affected in the week one Claviclysm when injured his clavicle alongside Hill and Foles while being the only one to miss the rest of the season. Pierre Desir was an unexpected cut this offseason after playing well enough through the year despite playing through an injury. Quincy Wilson was traded to the Jets after a few disappointing seasons.
Players signed
Name Position Old Team Length Money
Philip Rivers QB Chargers 1 Yr 25 Mil
DeForest Buckner DT 49ers 5 Yr 21 Mil/Y
Sheldon Day DT 49ers 1 Yr 1.75 Mil
Xavier Rhodes CB Vikings 1 Yr 3 Mil
Trey Burton TE Bears 1 Yr .91 Mil
Roosevelt Nix RB Steelers 1 Yr .96 Mil
TJ Carrie CB Browns 1 Yr 1 Mil
Let’s start with Philip Rivers. It’s clear that Jacoby Brissett is not the guy and the Colts had to make a choice. They went with a player that both head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni have worked with previously, which may be quite valuable as we implement the offense during a shortened offseason. Regardless, Philip underwent a dramatic statistical drop last year. I think he’s still got juice left in him and can make a great deal of good throws if he has a decent amount of room in the pocket. If you have some time, I recommend this video by The Scouting Academy featuring former offensive coordinator turned quarterback guru Steve Fairchild.
While DeForest Buckner was not technically a free agent, he was a massive departure from the Chris Ballard modus operandi of building through the draft. The team desperately needed a 3T and they traded their first round pick for one of the best in the league. Joining him will be recent teammate Sheldon Day who will likely take over quite a few snaps at the 1T.
Xavier Rhodes was signed on almost immediately after cutting Pierre Desir. He certainly seemed physically incapable of doing what was asked of him last year. Some players have called out the scheme change as a reason that Rhodes might return to form. Personally, I don’t quite see it and think his primary value on the team might be on using his intelligence as a veteran presence in a young CB room.
Of the remaining three, Trey Burton seems like a lock at TE2 after an injury filled stint with the Bears. Roosevelt Nix is an interesting choice as I expect him to continue his heavily blocking role he played with the Steelers as well as pick up a few more rushing snaps than he did with the Steelers as we lack a true fullback. Carrie is a guy that has a chance at being the backup slot behind Kenny Moore, but I don’t think he’s secured a spot yet.

Draft

Round Pick Name Position College
2 34 Michael Pittman WR USC
2 41 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin
2 85 Julian Blackmon S Utah
3 122 Jacob Eason QB QB
4 149 Danny Pinter G G
6 211 Robert Windsor DT Penn State
6 211 Isaiah Rodgers CB UMass
6 212 Dezmon Patmon WR Washington State
7 213 Jordan Glasgow LB Michigan
Michael Pittman Jr, WR, USC 2.34 Grade: A
This man just feels like a Colt. He’s a physical player and will immediately slot in as Philip River’s YOLO target. He’s got great size and uses it well both in positioning himself against a receiver to win the ball as well as using his frame and forcing his way down field. Even on truly contested catches, he has great hands with only 5 drops against 176 catchable targets in college. Lastly, his frame and hand usage make him a valuable blocker, which is particularly valued by Frank Reich as he plans to run the damn ball.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin 2.41 Grade: A-
This man is going to run the damn ball. Let’s start by mentioning his toughness, with nearly 1000 rushes through three years. The man’s body doesn’t show any sign that it will ever give up. He has enough cutting ability to dodge the occasional tackle, but excels at using his physique and contact balance to force his way through a tackle. If the defense fails to collapse on Taylor quickly, they’re at risk of him taking off. Taylor was the fastest running back at the combine running a 4.39 at 225 pounds. Going 1-on-1 with him nearing full speed is almost a futile prospect. As he finds lanes behind probably the best run blocking line in the league, he’ll be plenty of trouble. Not without flaws, he’s had a somewhat questionable history with fumbles that will likely lead to plenty of time with Tom Rathman. He also has limited experience in the passing game.
Julian Blackmon, S, Utah 3.85 Grade: C+
Perhaps I’m being a bit too harsh on Blackmon because I’m slightly addicted to watching Pittman embarrass the Utah defense in the Utah vs USC game. Perhaps it’s just because I’ve watched limited tape and safeties struggle with getting on tape for failing in coverage more often than being particularly good in coverage. Either way, as the heir apparent to Malik Hooker’s starting free safety position, Blackmon feels in a way like the opposite player. While both players had an eye for the ball coming out of college, Blackmon feels overall much more inconsistent in coverage, but he also feels like a much more solid tackler. Blackmon is also a recent convert to safety from corner, so perhaps what I’m seeing is simply growing pains especially because my reviewed games are from early in the season.
Jacob Eason, QB, Washington 4.122 Grade: C+
Jacob Eason was a surprise drop for many who considered him a second round prospect. His arm is an absolute cannon belonging right in that Josh Allen tier of pure arm strength. Of course, he’s a fourth round pick for a reason. He struggles to work through his progressions, he can’t consistently throw with touch, and there are some huge question marks regarding his work ethic. There’s a whole lot of potential, but I’m not going to call the future franchise QB spot secured for the Colts yet. For the time being, I’ll call him a fine backup for a team that didn’t otherwise have a QB rostered for 2021.
Danny Pinter, G, Ball State 5.149 Grade: B-
Danny Pinter is an undersized prospect that is moving in to play guard after most recently playing as a tackle. As a tight end convert from a small school, he still lacks a lot of the technique and strength and conditioning that you would hope for in an NFL O-line prospect. I’ve seen him be pretty weak with his hand placement and he’s let the defender get into his chest a couple times. The upside here is Pinter’s mobility. He ran the second fastest 40 of all offensive linemen at the combine at 4.91 seconds at 306 pounds and put up respectable numbers for the remaining footwork related drills. Altogether a fine pick for a team with a solid offensive line that will hopefully have time to develop their rookie.
Robert Windsor, DT, Penn State 6.193 Grade: C
Robert Windsor has a good first step and a motor that doesn’t stop. That’s all the good I can say about him. Windsor doesn’t have the strength, length, or technique to make an impression. With the potential of Denico Autry moving to the edge, it seems like they might be looking at Windsor as a backup for Buckner. If Tyquan Lewis continues to be a disappointment in the limited camp, Windsor might just sneak onto the roster by need alone, which is the only reason I can bump my grade to a C, though perhaps I’m a little too critical as I felt there were a couple of other players that are more roster worthy.
Isaiah Rodgers, CB, UMass 6.211 Grade: A
Isaiah Rodgers is an absolute burner. His pro-day speed was 4.28. Admittedly hand timed is always faster, but he’s clearly quick on tape. A bit undersized at 5’10”, he’ll likely be relegated to the back end of the cornerback depth chart until he can develop into an NFL level corner, but his immediate value seems very obvious on special teams. His speed makes him a threat at kick returns and he’ll likely get tried out as a backup punt returner. As a gunner, he will gladly hit you with everything he’s got. Check this hit.
Dezmon Patmon, WR, Washington State 6.212 Grade: B+
Patman is an intriguing prospect. He’s got a great combination of size and speed. While easily compared to second round pick Pittman because of his physical traits, Patmon lacks a lot of the polish. Worse hands, worse route running, and doesn’t quite play to his size like Pittman does. Regardless, I expect him to find production in his rookie year as Frank Reich was playing with the most injured wide receiver core in the league last year and has proven an ability to scheme depth players open consistently. Lastly, I think his size and River’s tendencies towards giant players is going to come into play fairly often near the redzone.
Jordan Glasgow, LB, Michigan 6.213 Grade: B+
Glasgow isn’t a guy I want to see playing a lot of defensive snaps in a game. He’s technically refined enough, but physically doesn’t seem to have a very high ceiling. During the Middle Tennessee State game that I reviewed for him, Michigan used him plenty to blitz the quarterback where he was plenty effective, but I won’t pretend that he was up against top tier opponents. Ultimately Glasgow is going to be a special teams specialist after a college career where he excelled at special teams, which at the end of the 6th round is all you can ask for.

Roster

QB: 3 Rivers, Brissett, Eason
Things are pretty straightforward for the Colts this year. There aren’t any preseason games, so nobody can retire after one. Rivers is the starter, hoping to prove that his career isn’t over after a down year last year. Brissett is a capable enough backup. Eason is the team’s insurance for 2021 when no other quarterbacks are on the roster and will hopefully not have to start during what is sure to be an odd season. First man out is $wag Kelly, who seems mainly to hold a roster spot as a favor between Frank Reich and his old friend Jim Kelly.
RB: 4 Mack, Taylor, Hines, Nix
For a while at least, Mack gets to hold the starting job. It’s certainly a competition with Taylor’s level of talent and I expect a pretty even split over the course of the year. Despite some competition at the position, Hines may have his best year considering River’s appreciation for receiving backs. Rosie Nix is the new fullback from the Steelers who might get a few touches here and there, but exists primarily for his blocking ability. First man out is Jordan Wilkins. This is a contentious cut for Colts fans. Wilkins has an unusual level of highlight type plays that lend to his 6.0 yards per attempt over 51 carries last year. Alas, roster spots are at a premium and running backs are not.
WR: 6 Hilton, Pittman, Pascal, Campbell, Marcus Johnson, Dezmon Patmon
Hilton’s the obvious choice. After two years struggling with health issues, Colts fans are hoping their WR1 remains healthy for the whole year. Pittman comes in as a fairly polished candidate from the top of the second round in a stacked receiver class. He’ll hold down the X receiver immediately. Zach Pascal was a pleasant surprise for Colts fans last year. With a list of injuries above him, Pascal did his best as WR1 for several games last year and led the Colts in receiving yards. As a WR3, he’ll get less focus and still be fairly valuable. Campbell has shown plenty of big play ability, what he needs to show is durability. He suffered four separate injuries last year including training camp. Hopefully, it was just a fluke and he can show off more of what he can do with a ball in his hands. Marcus Johnson is a fan favorite after his Tampa Bay showing last year. After starting the season on injured reserve, he returned to the practice squad and eventually made the roster last year. Colts fans are hoping his 16.3 yards per reception last year and 17 yards per reception in 2018 weren’t flukes and can be duplicated on more snaps Rivers. Dezmon Patman comes in as a somewhat unrefined option. I’ve already mentioned his physical traits. With a little bit of help from Reich’s scheming, I think he’ll find a handful of receptions this year, particularly towards the red zone. The first man out here is Daurice Fountain. After moving to the active roster in mid-2018, Reece was a training camp hit in 2019 until suffering an ankle injury in camp. While he might compete for the position, I haven’t seen enough from him in the first two years to give him right of way over Johnson and the rookie Patmon.
TE: 3 Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox
Jack Doyle has been a reliable pass catcher and mauling run blocker for years. He’s solid in his position as a starter. Trey Burton reunites with Frank Reich and is only two years removed from having a 569 yard season with the Bears. After struggling with injuries last season, Burton is hoping for a return to form this season. Mo Alie-Cox was a bit disappointing as many were expecting more receiving stats, but he’s still a talented run blocker with plenty of potential for next year. With Rivers having an appreciation for big bodied receivers, perhaps the 6’5.5” receiver with a 7’1” wingspan will find a few jump balls his way.
OL: 9 Castonzo, Nelson, Kelly, Glowinski, Smith, Clark, Patterson, Pinter, O’Donnell
The Colts are lucky enough to return all 5 starting offensive linemen this year. Castonzo played some of the best football of his career last year and signed on for two more years after considering retirement for a while. Quenton Nelson is coming off his second First Team All-Pro year. Kelly is a great Center coming off a fairly healthy season and going into a contract year. Glowinski is the weak point of the line, but that’s not so much an insult to Glowinski as it is a credit to the rest of the team. He’s still a very serviceable guard. Braden Smith is surpassing my wildest expectations from the day he was drafted as a guard. With early 2018 injuries to the tackle position, Smith made the shift and has been great at the position. Beyond the starting five, things get a bit more questionable with a significant loss of depth this past year. Clark returns on a one year contract and will be taking over the swing tackle position now that Joe Haeg has left. Patterson suffered a torn ACL in his rookie year, but is the only center on the roster behind Kelly and not including Nelson who only holds the position so he can keep 56. Pinter seems like the obvious option as a backup guard. O’Donnell is a Canadian football prospect that I assume the Colts found at the East-West Shrine bowl where he played fairly well. The Colts need depth at tackle and I can see O’Donnell doing that. First man out is Eldrenkamp as a backup guard.
DL: 9 Autry, Buckner, Day, Houston, Turay, Stewart, Muhammad, Lewis, Banogu
Autry has largely played DT the past couple years and done a fine job of it. With Sheard leaving in free agency, I currently have Autry slotted as the guy to move outside and take over the job. Buckner is our 3T we’ve been looking for. I hopefully don’t need to say anything else. Sheldon Day is competing with Grover Stewart for the 1T spot. I’ve got Day listed as my starter, but for a position that will see plenty of rotation I don’t think it matters either way. Turay is the “if only” story of 2019. Houston had a surprisingly healthy year and racked up 11 sacks, tied for second most in his career. Turay showed a ton of talent in his few snaps prior to injury in 2019. Over the five weeks he played, he ranked second in PFF’s pass-rushing grade and pass-rush rate with a 22.9% pressure rate. If he can build on these past two years, Turay may be a monster. Tyquan Lewis is the disappointment of Chris Ballard’s 2018 draft. He’s struggled with a couple of injuries and he’s had a few healthy scratches that I haven’t heard anything verifiable to explain away. Alas, I’m leaving him in the lineup as a guy who is flexible enough to back up Buckner, but also play outside as need be. Banogu is another guy that has shown flashes here and there. First one out is Robert Windsor, who might take that 3T spot if Lewis doesn’t shape up in camp.
LB: 6 Leonard, Walker, Okereke, Speed, Adams, Glasgow
13 games, 5 Int, 2 FF, 7 PD, 5 Sacks, 121 Tackles. Darius Leonard put up some impressive stats last year and he’s aiming for the top. If he can pull off a 16 game season with similar stats, he’ll have an argument for DPOY. Walker is a smart player, if a little limited athletically and in coverage skills. I’ll keep him as the starter, but many fans are arguing for Okereke to take over the role. Okereke was PFF’s top ranked rookie linebacker last year, particularly for his athleticism and strength in coverage. EJ Speed had some limited play last year while Leonard was dealing with a concussion. He played fine, but has yet to show anything to get excited about. Glasgow takes the final spot primarily for special teams value. Adams has played a handful of snaps here and there, but is primarily going to be a special teams player. First man out is Zaire Franklin was only getting special teams snaps anyways.
CB: 5 Rhodes, Moore, Ya-Sin, Tell, Rodgers
Rhodes is hoping for a resurgence in a different scheme. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and give the former first team all-pro the nod as CB1. Kenny Moore II has been a great slot corner for the Colts these past couple years. He struggled with injuries for a long while to end out the year last year, but I fully expect him to continue his efforts to make himself a household name this year. Rock Ya-Sin was our rookie pick last year near the top of the 2nd round. He had some common rookie CB mistakes, but showed enough talent and growth to believe he has a high chance of taking over the CB1 role. Marvell Tell is an incredible physical specimen that the Colts took last year with the expectations of moving him to CB from Safety. With injuries to the cornerback position, he got a few more snaps than we were hoping, but he flashed a great deal. If Xavier Rhodes’s physical decline last season continues, I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see Tell starting over a healthy Rhodes. Rodgers is still very developmental as a corner, but holds plenty of value for special teams. First man out is TJ Carrie who would have been a fine slot backup in case Kenny Moore went down.
S: 5 Hooker, Willis, Odum, Blackmon, Milligan
Malik Hooker is entering the last year of his contract with the Colts after having his fifth year option declined. Hooker lit up the stat sheet his rookie year, but ever since the scheme change, has struggled to prove he was worth the draft position. With an improved pass rush this year, perhaps his sixth sense in finding the ball will come into play more often. Khari Willis was a pleasant surprise last year. It was clear the Colts liked him when Ballard traded draft capital to move up, but I wouldn’t have expected him to so clearly take over the starting strong safety position. On top of that, Willis played reasonably at free safety during Hooker’s injury last year. Odum is a solid backup who can play at both strong and free safety. Julian Blackmon is the new rookie who I assume is intended to be Hooker’s successor next year. For the time being he’s coming back from an ACL injury and may not be available until midyear, but as the successor to the starting position, I think it’s important to at least give him a spot for now. Milligan is a versatile player. He’s really a free safety, but played a bit of slot corner last year when Kenny Moore went down.
ST: 3 Blankenship, Sanchez, Rhodes
Hot Rod is my guess to be kicker. While McLaughlin played well enough for the Colts. Even with a 100% hit rate on extra points, there’s plenty of room for more consistency as he ranked 22nd overall in field goal percentage last year. It’ll be a tough contest in camp, but if I’m calling my shot with Hot Rod. Sanchez hasn’t played his best football these past couple years. I’m hoping someone else takes over kickoffs and Sanchez can focus entirely on punting in hopes of returning to form.

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

QB
The Colts QB room seems solid. I’m expecting Rivers to return to his typical self that still throws a decent amount of interceptions. Regardless, a quarterback that doesn’t constantly hold onto the ball for 3+ seconds playing behind this line is going to have plenty of opportunities to make great plays. For this year of all years, it seems like the value in having backup quarterbacks is going to be at an all time high and I don’t feel so bad about what the Colts have. I’ll call it a fairly average group until Rivers can prove his career isn’t over.
Backfield
The Colts have a group of good backs, but lack an elite option particularly when considering that none have proved themselves a threat in both the rushing and passing game at the moment. As a group, I’ll call it borderline top 10 in large part because any one of these players could get injured without it feeling season ruining as may be true with a few of the teams with top running backs.
OL
I have no complaints about the starting offensive line, the huge question mark is about the depth. The Colts were lucky enough to start the same five men all season last year, but one injury to Anthony Castonzo and Colts fans will have flashbacks to the five game stretch he missed in 2018 where Luck suffered 10 of the 18 total sacks on the season. Alas, many teams struggle with depth and I hope I don’t have to argue too much about this being one of the best groups in the NFL.
Pass catchers
By Adjusted Games Lost, the Colts had the single most injured wide receiver room last year. The single biggest thing that needs to be proven is that we can stay healthy across the board. If they stay healthy, the Colts are a mid tier group, but under the assumption that TY’s health issues these past two years continue, I’m forced to assume they’re a bottom third group until we can trust someone to be a true WR1 in most games.
DL
The Colts starting lineup seems pretty strong, but for a position group that we want to rotate with depth players on, I’ve gotta question what kind of play we’re going to see out of guys like Tyquan Lewis and Ben Banogu. As such, I’ll call this group middling overall.
LB
It’s just a solid group all around. The fact that we can’t decide between Okereke and Walker as starters is primarily a question of which is better, not which is worse. Behind them is plenty of serviceable depth that holds an important role in special teams.
Secondary
This is the one group with question marks at basically every spot. Can Rhodes return to All-Pro form? Was the apparent growth for Ya-Sin real and can it continue? Can Moore stay healthy? Can Tell develop into a starting safety? Can Hooker stay healthy after missing significant time these past two years and can he prove he’s worth his draft position?
Special Teams
What just one year ago felt like a solid group for kicking and punting, now feels a bit questionable. I don’t want to get so down about Rigo’s down year as it was still overall decent. With the new search for a kicker, I can’t complain about either of the current options and I don’t believe either will get nearly the leash that Adam Vinatieri got last year, so I’d say the floor there is much higher. The returning seems like it’s best in years after Hines has impressed and our return team overall just seems to be getting stronger. With the addition of Isaiah Rodgers, this may be a group to beat.

Schedule Predictions

Week 1: @ Jaguars (W)
Ah yes, the Jaguars. An eternal question mark for the Colts. Generally believed to be one of the worst rosters in the league, I’d have to agree. There are plenty of question marks on their defense that they’re hoping will be filled in by rookies. I would expect them to have growing pains even without a shortened offseason. Week one, this seems to weigh heavily with the Colts who’ve added strong veteran talent in Rivers and Buckner.
Week 2: vs Vikings (W)
Despite having one of my favorite drafts of the year, the Vikings have many of the same struggles as the Jaguars. First, we must accept that moving from Diggs to Jefferson isn’t likely to be a smooth transition in Jefferson’s first year. Just as notably they’re losing their two corners that put up the most snaps for them in 2019. While neither of their 2018 corners were playing at their best, it currently looks like they’ll have two rookie starting corners with Gladney and Dantzler and I think all of reddit knows to expect cornerbacks to have rookie year struggles.
Week 3: vs Jets (W)
Can TY play corner? The Jets draft is another one of my favorites, but they’re still not quite there as a whole. Despite my love for Becton, I don’t think their list of offensive line changes have turned into a complete group. On top of that, I’m still not quite happy with their weapons. Bell looks like he’s still got mileage left in him if only he had a better line. Their tight end group is highly dubious, and their wide receiver group has really better hope Mims can actually play like a WR1. I think it’ll be a better game than some might assume based on a lot of opinions I hear on the Jets, but I’ve got the Colts with the edge.
Week 4: @ Bears (W)
As a fan of watching line play, this will be a game to remember. The Bears d-line is arguably the best run defense in the league and they’re not bad against the pass either particularly when backed by a good secondary. Unfortunately for the Bears, I’m expecting their weaker offensive line to struggle vs the Colts defensive line more than the opposite.
Week 5: @ Browns (L)
Ah, yes. I get to another one of my favorite offseasons. Just about everything the Browns did seemed like a good move. On paper, the Browns offense is scary as hell and I just don’t have any arguments for why they would be worse. Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills are going to be great additions to fix that line, then you go and add Hooper as if you didn’t have enough weapons. With even half-decent coaching this team can be dangerous and I can’t trust the Colts secondary to handle every weapon.
Week 6: vs Bengals (W)
After five straight years of the Bengals losing their first round pick for a significant amount of time due to injury, maybe this year will be an exception. With the return of Jonah Williams, perhaps that line can actually have a half decent year, but I’m not going to bet the house on it. For the time being, the Bengals are still working on their rebuild.
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: @ Lions (W)
What little I watched of the Lions last year seemed like a decent quality team. As rarely as I like to bet on rookie corners, Okudah is as complete as any college corner I’ve seen. I’m not ready to call them a strong team, but they don’t seem weak by any means. A return from Stafford could make the NFC North one of the most internally competitive divisions to watch. Regardless, I feel like the Colts have a somewhat stronger roster.
Week 9: Ravens (L)
If only I could go to this game in person. I’d love to see how the Colts defense matches up against that Ravens offense in person. Top to bottom the Ravens have one of the strongest rosters in the league, so they get the strong edge.
Week 10: @ Titans (L)
I hate Thursday night games. The home team has a huge statistical advantage. Going into Tennessee tired after a tough Ravens game certainly isn’t going to do the Colts any favors when they’ve gotta try to tackle Derrick Henry.
Week 11: vs Packers (L)
This is just a long stretch of teams asking a lot of the Colts physically. Stopping the run week after week with the Ravens then Derrick Henry then Jones/Dillon is just going to be physically brutal. Luckily, the Colts are coming off a ten day bye at home, but the Packers are just an overall solid team all around and I think they’ll still be very competitive at every phase of the game.
Week 12: vs Titans (W)
I don’t think the Colts will be happy with their string of losses. I think they’re coming back hungry and trying to prove themselves against a divisional opponent at home.
Week 13: @Texans (W)
After the Texans split games in 2018 and 2019, the Colts are going to get the first win of 2020. For two closely matched teams in 2019, the Colts have lost nobody of any particular importance and purely added more talent, while the Texans sold off Hopkins in hopes that Cooks and Cobb will somehow elevate their offense. It’s a risky bet.
Week 14: @ Raiders (W)
Last year’s Raiders led the Colts by 7 points with just over 2 minutes to go in the half prior to Brissett’s pick 6. Looking at things from a clean slate, I’d fully expect the return of previously inactive Hilton, Leonard, and Hooker to cover the gap between the two teams and I have the Colts winning next year’s game.
Week 15: vs Texans (L)
Let’s not underrate Deshaun Watson. Having watched Luck carry a questionable offense for years, I think Deshaun’s got enough talent to pull some wins out of his ass. I’m certainly not so low on the Texans roster to believe Deshaun can’t push it to a win.
Week 16: @ Steelers (W)
Last year’s game was a 2 point Steelers victory after an Adam Vinatieri kick went awry with about a minute left in the game. So, they question is, were the Colts offseason improvements worth 2 points on the Steelers? Both of these teams are expected to improve greatly with the return and hiring of 2004 quarterback legends, but I’d have to give a slight nod to Big Ben as the greater improvement from Mason Rudolph vs Rivers replacing Brissett/Hoyer. For remaining Inactives, I’d have to credit the loss of TY Hilton as a more significant factor than that of James Connor. What I think finally takes the Colts over the top is the combination of their first round pick for DeForest Buckner as well as a stronger pair of second round additions with Pittman and Taylor vs Claypool.
Week 17: vs Jaguars (L)
If you don’t like the look of that L next to the Jaguars game, you don’t like AFC South football. The Jags always seem like a much better team about once a year. I’m looking at you 2018 Jags. At 10-5, I think the Colts have a good chance at being guaranteed a playoff berth and the Jags probably just want to prove themselves more.

Schemes

Offense
If you’re looking at last year’s team as a model for this year’s offense, you’re probably missing something. To quote Ozzurip from last year’s review, “The point is that there isn’t a specific scheme.” Frank Reich isn’t beholden to doing one thing every week. He wants to find every mismatch and exploit it to the best of his ability by using a diverse set of tools. Jacoby’s limitations as a player saw the passing offense get unnecessarily flat last year. Philip Rivers is the bet to run Frank Reich’s offense properly.
This starts by looking at your traditional West Coast offense utilizing a lot of nickel and dime throws in order to set up a rush. Of course with the Colt’s power running and more modern RPO usage, the run game is setting up this short passing game just as well. When teams are playing too close to the box, Frank will call up a play to push the ball deep where his new quarterback is more than willing to follow through. Ultimately, Reich will push whatever works. If the Colts are running over the opposing team, he won’t be afraid to lean into the run, but I personally believe the Colts will want to be a pass first offense once again. This is admittedly not a commonly agreed upon point among Colts fans. Feel free to take my opinion with a grain of salt.
The Colts have a diverse set of weapons that allow them to play just about any game they want to and will gladly lean on certain weapons to target specific weaknesses in the opponent’s defense. You want big guys? Let’s throw Doyle, Alie-Cox, Pittman, and Patmon out there. This not only puts out a selection of big bodies to have to defend against, but also a good list of run blockers for whichever running back they’re throwing out. Want speed? Hilton, Campbell, and Hines are each capable of stretching the field vertically. The last note I want to add would be a likely increase in 22 personnel. Just toss out Patmon and mix and match some running backs. Reich has mentioned seeing Mack and Taylor on the field at the same time, but I would fully expect plenty of plays with Nix holding a lead blocker role or even a more Tom Rathman-esque fullback that pulls in passes in the short game.
Defense
The Colts defense is a pretty simple scheme based on a 4-3 Tampa 2 defense. Despite some excitement after the Chiefs game where the Colts played man on 73.3% of snaps, expect for the Colts to play a vast majority of their snaps in zone coverage. Playing man for that one game was likely just taking advantage of a weakened receiving core than it was a proof of the Colts sudden willingness to move to a different scheme.
The Colts are heavily reliant on the front four to generate pressure and do so by rotating through 8-9 defensive linemen with the goal of keeping players fresh. The Colts defensive lineman with the highest snap count last year was Justin Houston who only played in 65.18% of snaps. Perhaps bringing in Buckner will cause the team to add a bit more consistency after Buckner’s 78.72% snaps on the 49ers last season. This focus on the front 4 is accentuated by the 6th lowest blitz rate in the league in 2019.
Part of what helps the defensive line be effective is their ability to focus on the passer while the linebackers work heavily to stop the run. The Colts run a lot of a concept called patterns where the play side linebacker’s goal is to control the offensive line and push the run outside where the other linebacker is meant to be athletic enough to cross the line and stop the run. For a more detailed look at the Colts implementation of this concept, read Zach Hicks’s writeup on this
Behind the linebacker group is typically a Cover-2 whose primary goal is to cover the deep zones and prevent any big plays. The idea is that forcing a team to dink and dunk down the field forces the offense to be successful on more plays to reach the end zone. More plays means more opportunities on each drive for interceptions, sacks, forced fumbles, and simply missed passes in order to set the offense back. The Colts were ultimately tied for 10th in the league at 13.1 percent of drives ending in a turnover.
Shoutouts to those who helped:
Ozzurip
Link to hub
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V1per's Week 7 Survivor/Eliminator Pick

Last week saw big upsets around every corner. Chiefs (-5), Falcons (-2.5), Cowboys (-7), and Chargers (-7) were all popular picks last week that lost. My NE pick from last week survived the culling and we continue on with just the one loss.
If you've selected different teams up to this point, make sure to check out the downloadable excel file is available at the bottom to enter your own teams and run it for yourself.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team
Fine. Buffalo Bills
Last week was a tough one to get through, but the schedule really opens up ahead. Using the Bills at home against a winless Miami team that just lost to winless Washington seems like the obvious choice. For those of you who don't like picking the most popular team, San Francisco, GB, and NE are all big favorites this week as well.
Season so far
5-1.
Had a nice bounce back this week, getting the win and avoiding the chaos of upsets on Sunday. The schedule opens up quite a bit from here with only 3 games below an 80% chance of winning.
Season Long Outlook
Teams in italics are changes from last week. This is simply to give some insight into why team X or Y aren't being picked this week. It's usually because they are better off being used later in the season, or it's because I've already used them.
​
Week Team P(Win)
1 PHI 100%
2 BAL 100%
3 DAL 100%
4 LAC 100%
5 KC 0%
6 NE 100%
7 BUF 92%
8 PIT 86%
9 HOU 75%
10 IND 88%
11 SF 84%
12 CLE 84%
13 CAR 84%
14 GB 85%
15 NYG 75%
16 SEA 84%
17 LAR 79%
The only change is the week 8 pick. We're now swapping out the Saints with the Steelers Both games are fairly equal currently at 86 vs 84 percent chance of victory, so this could easily change back based on this week's results.
Now that we are getting a better idea of who the good and bad teams are, along with using up many of the better teams already, we can expect the future predictions to stay pretty consistent. If the Rams continue to struggle we might be in a tough spot come week 17.
Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Win out) = 13.1%
E(Wins) = 14.16 (+0.17) -- Yup, I'm expected to lose two more games this year
Methedology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download
After getting a lot of "What if I picked teams A and B already?" or "What if there are only 20 people left in my league?" or "What if I can only pick teams that play on Sunday?"
I got you covered. I cleaned up the sheet and added a couple of features that should work for everyone.
You can download it from Mediafire.
Enter what days of the week you're allowed to pick games on, enter the total remaining entries in your league, and the teams you've already picked and just click the "Calculate" button.
If you don't like waiting for my post, you can also update the data from 538 and enter the point spreads yourself, but I'll continue to update and post it here every Wednesday as well.
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Steelers 2020 Offseason Primer: The Path to Bud Dupree (Maybe)

A couple of things before we get started
Current 2020 Cap Space - $5.48M Literally just the number on OTC. No moves made between now and March 1, and that’s our cap space.
Rollover 2019 Cap - $3.2M Any cap an NFL team doesn’t use in a given year can roll it over to the next year, provided they’re above the 89% line over the past three years on a rolling basis. For 2020, that means in order to roll over their current space ($3.2M), they’d have to have spent at least 89% of the salary cap over the course of 2017, 2018, and 2019. I’ll save you the trouble: they did. It’s bad teams with no highly paid players who can’t roll it all over. Steelers are always using most of the cap, so the space they have left is almost always rollable.
Cut Candidates - $12.485M Anthony Chickilo - $5M… if this doesn’t happen I renounce my fandom forever.
Mark Barron - $5.25M… unless there’s literally nothing available in the FA market/late day 2 or early day 3 of the draft, I can’t see Barron on this team in 2020. Outside of the Rams game, he’s been pitiful.
Paxton Lynch - $735k… one source said he’s an RFA but I still don’t see the Steelers keeping 4 QB’s when barely any other teams roster 3 of them.
Daniel McCullers - $1.5M… someone tell me three memorable plays McCullers has made since being drafted in 2014. I’ll spot you the first one - pressured Ryan Fitzpatrick into a Dupree pick-six in week 3 of 2018. Good luck with the other two. He gone.
Restructure Candidates - $19.497M Here’s how this works… basically, you approach a guy and ask to convert a chunk of this year's salary (or roster bonus, workout bonus, etc.) into signing bonus, then on paper you can spread that bonus across the length of the rest of the contract. So if a guy’s scheduled to get $5M salary and $2M bonus each of the next 3 years, he can agree to take a $6M bonus and $1M salary this year (so he still gets his full 7m), and that bonus number (not the actual money, just the number on the books) can be prorated over the length of the contract (3 years). so, 2M original bonus x 3 years = 6M, plus the 4M you just converted to bonus money = 10M bonus over 3 years, = 3.33M/year. So you decreased the guys cap number this year from $7M to$ 4.33M this year ($1M salary + $3.33M bonus), while increasing it by $1.33M per year the next two years. Now, salary can’t dip below the veteran minimums, and guys aren’t gonna like getting smaller game checks, but that’s how the math works. So, when looking for restructure candidates, you want to approach guys with high salary numbers (rather than high bonuses) and length on their contracts. The more years you've got to prorate that bonus, the less you’re raising each of those future cap hits. Here are a few that I’d suggest, complete with math done by OverTheCap to tell us how much we could save in 2020 by restructuring down to vet minimum salaries with each of these guys.
Nelson up to $3.715M
Pouncey up to $3.527M
Vance up to $2.415M
Vince up to $1.59M
A few other possibilities arise from the ability to convert roster bonuses into signing bonus money.
Ben - $6.25M
Pouncey - another $2M
Total - $40.662M
Draft picks - $4.912M Literally just an estimate (massaged the numbers to make the FA Total more of a round number, but should be pretty close if you figure day 2 picks (rounds 2 and 3) for around $800k and day 3 picks (rounds 4-7) around $600-700k. Right now our draft situation looks like this: 2nd (49) *3rd (100) 4th (114) **4th (117) 6th (179) 7th (210)
*Projected comp pick for 2019 free agency net loss (there’s a formula, but for simplicity’s sake we’ll just say it’s for Le’Veon Bell).**From Miami in Minkah trade, via Tennessee in the Tannehill trade. 117 is based on TN current playoff position. So, in a weird way, we’re Pats fans this weekend.
Total Cap Space - $35.75M
A Quick Treatise on Free Agency
There are three breeds of NFL Free Agency
Here are the players we have to make decisions on:
Pending UFA’s (9)
Dupree, Hargrave, Finney, Matakevich, Vannett, Davis, Burns, Walton, Shazier
Pending RFA’s (with projected tenders assigned)
Hilton (2nd round, $3.278M)
Feiler (2nd round, $3.278M)
Dangerfield (original round, $2.144M)
Banner (original round - 4th, $2.144M)
Kanaday (don’t know if he gets a tender, but wouldn't be surprised. Undrafted, I'd say 4th round tender - $2.144M)
ERFA’s (with tender amounts courtesy of OTC)*
Tuzar Skipper (750k)**
Marcus Allen ($585k)
Lavon Hooks ($585k)
J.C. Hassenauer ($510k)
*I’m assuming we keep all these guys, because
  1. They’re some of the lowest salaries allowed by the CBA
  2. You can’t just worry about the 30 or so guys who log most of your snaps; rosters are 53 deep and you want as many cheap guys bringing up the rear as possible
  3. Historical precedent; ERFA’s are a bargain, Steelers will cash in on that in a cap-strapped year.
**Skipper reportedly signed a 2 year extension this week, though the financials haven’t yet been reported. I’d expect it to be under $1M/year, but significantly higher than the $585k you see by the other guys. Something like $750k/year to make it worth his while to sign.
So, take the Total Cap Space from earlier ($35.75M) and subtract those Projected RFA Tenders ($12.988M) and we get $22.762M. Subtract $2.43M for the ERFA’s (and Skipper's projected contract) and get $20.332M. I’ll make the assumption that we’ll do the Shazier thing again where we give him the veteran minimum and keep him on the PUP, but in my opinion, we’re getting to the point where we just need to admit his career is over and bring him on as a coach/consultant/scout/etc. Anyway, a veteran minimum contract is gonna cost $820k, which brings us to $19.512M. Subtract a little more for insurance/wiggle room in-season to make an emergency signing or two ($1.52M) and we’ve got $18M to put toward the rest of those UFAs. Which brings us to the elephant in the room… what the heck are we gonna do with Bud Dupree? Spoiler alert: if we keep Dupree, we probably won’t be able to keep B.J. Finney or Nick Vannett. LT Walton is a possibility because he’s cheap. Burns and Davis are gone because they’re not good. Matakevich is enough of a special-teams-only guy that *maybe* he plays for really cheap (and I mean $1M or less). But I think he’s gone too. And Hargrave… you’ve known this for a while. There's just no chance. I’ll lay out our Dupree options and discuss their feasibility.
1. Extension Will it happen? I've used Za’Darius Smith as a player comp for Dupree in the past. Never broke 4 sacks in any of his first three seasons, then hit 8.5 sacks in his fourth and final year with the Ravens. On the open market he got a 4 year, $66M deal with Green Bay (a team who, like Pittsburgh, isn’t usually a big factor in free agency). Factor in the projected 6% increase in the salary cap from last year to this year and an otherwise identical deal would be for about $70M ($17.5/year). While that’s technically doable, it would account for half the total money we’d have available for new deals. A backloaded contract is a possibility, but with TJ, JuJu, perhaps another Ben extension on the way, I’d be wary of pushing too much money down the road (which, keep in mind, is what all those restructures are doing). 3/10
2. Tag Will it happen? Depends which one. Let's define the different tags:
But this tool gives the Steelers some leverage, so I’ll rate it slightly more likely than the exclusive tag. 5.5/10
3. Tag-and-trade Will it happen? We’ve never done this before. Of course, four months ago we traded away a first round pick for the first time in fifty years, so nothing’s impossible. If it happened, it would pretty much have to be the Exclusive Tag. The return would have to look something like what we gave up for Minkah, centered around a first round pick in 2020. A few edge rushers got traded on the tag last year, including Jadeveon Clowney for a 3rd round pick and some young cheap players, which is an example of how the tag-and-trade rarely works out for the tagging team. I don’t find this likely. 2/10
4. Signs Elsewhere in FA Will it happen? I know Mike Tomlin has called Bud Dupree a “priority,” but Le’Veon Bell was a priority, too. The cap situation makes any deal for Dupree a tight fit, though not totally impossible. If I had to bet on one of these outcomes, it’d probably be this one. Consistently competitive and stable organizations such as the Patriots, Packers, and Ravens have made a living off of compensatory picks, and losing Dupree would almost certainly net us a 2021 3rd round pick. 7.5/10
Other Notes
I started this manifesto in October but got busy (and more information became available). So there’s something to get you started as we look forward to another long offseason.
TL;DR: cap situation is tough, but there are maneuvers we can make to fit Dupree (or Hargrave if that’s more your preference, but not both) under the cap for 2020.
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NFL Wild Card Weekend DFS Picks from CheatSheetPros! << Article inside + YouTube Video Link.>>

NFL Wild Card Round Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Hopefully you got to watch our video last week as we gave you some sneaky plays with Michael Gallup who scored 3 TDs and was the highest scoring WR on the slate. We were also all over Lazard at only $4k who put up 16.9 DKP for just over 4x value. Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown was our favorite stack and they ended up having a solid day too!
NFL Wild Card VIDEO! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf3OILuh\_V0
GAME by GAME PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at Buffalo +3 and now +2.5 while the total has slid up a point from 41.5 to 42.5. 90% of the tickets are on the over and 71% on the Bills spread. Our algo has this as a tight game with a 21.5 to 21.3 projected score. The key factor here the sports betting line is Buffalo -3.5 so this line will continue to move to Buffalo.
BETTING PICK by CheatSheetPros: Buffalo +2.5 or +3 if you can find it or moneyline.
FANTASY PICKS:
Josh Allen (6500) is in a smash spot as the Texans are the giving up the 31st most points to QBs at 24.5 and the Texans pass defense DVOA is rated 26th. Houston went from allowing 388 total yards per game to a whopping 444 over the last 3 games.
John Brown (6000) is a great WR to pair with Josh Allen as he has been the most consistent WR in Buffalo.
Devin Singletary (6000) also has a smash spot as Texans are giving up the 26th most points to the RB position and hold the 22nd rush defense DVOA. What really jumps out at me here is that Houston was allowing 121 rushing yards per game on the year but jumped out to a whopping 171 rushing yards per game over the last 3! Texans are also 27th vs. pass catching RBs.
DeShaun Watson (6400) isn’t a terrible pick but not my favorite play on this wild card slate and should only be used in GPPs. He is facing the 5th rated DVOA pass defense and Buffalo ranks a solid #2 vs. WR-1 and 4th vs. WR-1. So I’m off Hopkins this week at 7700 unless you are game stacking. I think Will Fuller (4900) would be better to pair with Watson.
TITANS @ PATRIOTS
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at TEN +5.5 and now down to +4.5 and the total has not moved as it opened at 43.5 and still 43.5. Tickets are split between the total and the sides so nothing big here. Sports betting algo has this as pretty much the same line as the Vegas open. We have this projected with Patriots 26 vs. Titans 22. Get the +4.5 before it goes to 4.
BETTING PICK by CheatSheetPros: TITANS +4.5 (also like a small bet on moneyline)
FANTASY PICKS:
Ryan Tannehill (6300), A.J. Brown (7400) & Jonnu Smith (3800) are in a tough spot vs. this Patriots defense that ranks #1 DVOA vs. the pass, #6 DVOA vs. the run and #1 vs. WR-1 and WR-2. However, NE just gave up 320 passing yards to Fitzmagic and allowed DeVante Parker to go 8 for 137 yards in a game they NEEDED TO WIN! The Pats soft schedule is starting to show up as they were only allowing 275 total yards per game and that has jumped to 324 over the last 3 games.
Derrick Henry (8200) is a little expensive but I don’t mind him this week due to the small slate. Titans are rushing for 138.9 yards per game (3rd best in NFL) and the Pats are allowing 95.5. Henry is the primary rushing back for the Titans so he should be able to get over 100 yards and a score this week. Henry has put up 42, 9, 27, 27, 32, 36 and 25 DKP in recent contest. He has 18+ carries in his last 6 games and has only been under 100 yards once in those contest. He is also over 149 yards in 4 of those 6! We just can’t fade that kind of volume and production no matter who they are facing!
Tom Brady (5800) is priced fair this week in a tougher matchup. Titans are allowing 255 passing yards per game (24th) and allowing 20.7 PPG (12th) so it’s not like they are going to shut the Pats out. The key here is that Brady doesn’t run so you have to pair him with a WR and Julian Edelman (6500) is the best choice as Titans are 28th vs. WR-1s.
Sony Michel (4600) is priced way too low for his recent volume. He has 18, 21 and 19 carries in the L3 contest for 74, 96 and 89 yards. Where can you get a $4.6k RB with that kind of volume?
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opend at Saints -8 and still -8 while the total has jumped from 47 at open to 48.5. 64% of the tickets are on the Saints while 75% are on the over.
BETTING PICK by CheatSheetPros: Hard Pass. Saints on a teaser is my pick.
FANTASY PICKS:
Kirk Cousins (6100) – You want a low owned QB? Take Cousins, he is known for not being able to win the big game and facing a tough Saints defense that is allowing only 333 total yards per game (11th) best. The key here is that I’m fading Dalvin Cook (7800) as I think he is priced too high for the 5th rated rush defense DVOA and Saints are allowing the 6th least amount of fantasy points per game to the RB position. I just don’t think Dalvin can smash here and 2.0-2.5x might be his ceiling. So MIN should be down and if they can’t run they need to THROW THE BALL! Saints are allowing the 4th least amount of rushing yards per game at 91.3 but rank 20th in passing yards per game at 241.8. Pair Cousins with an Adam Thielen (6200) who should get more targets after having a little time under his belt in a must-win game. Stefon Diggs (6600) is also pretty cheap and has the ceiling for that monster game.
Drew Brees (6600) – Yes please! You always want to stack a WR with a QB and Michael Thomas (9300) is expensive but Minny is 21st vs. WR-1 coverage AND they are allowing the 24th most fantasy points to the WR position. Vikings coverage vs. TE ranks #1 so I also am going to fade Jared Cook (4900) and look toward Tre-Quan Smith (4000). If you take out the game last week where Michael Thomas had 9 targets but only 4 catches for 37 yards you have 3 monster games where he put up 34.6 – 33.8 – 33.4 and had 17, 12 and 15 targets with a whopping 126, 128 and 134 yards.
SEATTLE @ PHILLY
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at Seattle -1 and now -1.5 while the total has gone from 45.5 to 46. 84% of the tickets are on Seattle. Sports betting line is Seattle -3 so I expect this line to continue to move toward Seattle until we hit -3. Our algo has this projected score at Philly winning 25 to 24 so gladly going to take the points!
BETTING PICK by CheatSheetPros: Going against public here with Eagles +1.5 (hold out for +3)
FANTASY PICKS:
Russell Wilson (6800) has 40 DKP upside but more 3x for this game. The reason we like Wilson is because the Eagles are only allowing 90.1 rushing yards per game (3rd best in NFL) and the 8th least amount of points to the RB position at 21.3 plus Eagles have the 4th ranked rush defense DVOA. Marshawn Lynch (5200) might grab a TD but won’t get enough volume to return a big value so I’m going to be lower than the field on him. Travis Homer (5300) was solid last week as he rushed 10 times for 62 yards and caught 5 balls for another 30 yards so that is who I would use as a salary saver over beast mode.
Love some D.K. Metcalf (6100) as he has a whopping 12 targets last week compared to only 7 for Tyler Locket (7200). Eagles are giving up the 30th most fantasy points to the WR position at 41.5. Pair Wilson with 1-2 of his pass catches and sit back and watch the points roll in. Jacob Hollister (4300) is a cheaper TE that also had 8 targets last week so he at least has to be on a radar as there are no many cheap options this week.
Carson Wentz (6200), Greg Ward (5200) & Dallas Goedert (5200) (if Ertz is out) are all solid options on a short slate. Seattle is allowing 263.9 passing yards per game (27th) and have the 15th rated passing defense DVOA. Seattle is also allowing the 31st most fantasy points to the TE position and 17th in covering the TE.
But what I really like is the Eagles running game this week. Seattle is also allowing 117.7 rushing yards per game (22nd) but over the LAST 3 WEEKS they are allowing 175 rushing yards per game! Miles Sanders (6200) is a beast but he is questionable with an injury so keep an eye on him because if he is out that is more carries for the other RBs. Jordan Howard (4900) should also be back for this game but don’t know what kind of load he is going to have. Boston Scott (5800) was a BEAST last week! He had 3 touchdowns AND caught 4 balls for 84 yards and put up a whopping 35.8 DKP! He has 8, 13.5 and 24.8 DKP prior to that so he has been getting some work. He has put up a solid per carry average in those contest of 4.0, 4.3 and 5.9. He also have 23 catches across his last 4 games. Love some Boston Scott his week!
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YouTube 2020: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHW4gVcFG2iaGVdJFbvvBNg? Make sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel as we are going to post a ton of videos in 2020. We are using special effects, green screens and mixing it up for some fun DFS & Sports Betting videos. Right now we have the full NFL Playoff Bracket walk through with our cheatsheet and a full walk through of our cheatsheets and how to use them on the channel!
FLICK – R.I.P.
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze
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[Game Preview] Playoff Edition Wildcard Round - Chicago Bears (12-4) vs Philadelphia Eagles(9-7)

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) at Chicago Bears (12-4)
Old Saint Nick delivered his Christmas gift of putting the Eagles in the playoffs with a little help from his next opponent the Chicago Bears who beat their division rival Redskins to knock the Vikings out of the playoffs allowing the Eagles to sneak in with their win over the rival Redskins. Nick will have to use all the magic left in that big ol dick of his this week as the Bears come into the game with the best defense in football and are in the top 10 in nearly every defensive category. Their defense was good last season, but went to great when they traded for Khalil Mack before the season started. Mack is a terror for opposing offenses with 12.5 sacks and 6 forced fumbles this season, the Eagles OL and Nick Foles will need to know where Mack is at all times on the football field. I expect the game plan will be similar to when the Eagles played Mack last season using a variety of double teams to keep him off his game. On the otherside the defense has been playing better of late and shut out the beat up Washington Redskins offense holding them to mere 89 yards on offense. They will be put to the test this week taking on Matt Nagy's offense that Trubisky has thrived in this season. The DL will need to find away to get past a talented Bears OL and wreak havoc in the backfield to make Trubisky uncomfortable and stop the talented 1-2 punch of the Bears run game. The game will be a chess match between two old friends who should be very familiar with one another. Not only to Pederson and Nagy both come up under Andy Reid, but they both joined the Eagles staff in the 2009 and 2008 seasons and stayed with Reid when he went to Kansas City with Nagy taking the QB coach position and Pederson taking the OC slot. So coaching together for 7 straight seasons should give each other some ideas what the other will do and make for an entertaining football game. Go Birds!
General Information
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Date
Sunday, January 6th, 2019
Game Time Game Location
4:40 PM - Eastern Soldier Field
3:40 PM - Central 1410 S Museum Campus Drive
2:40 PM - Mountain Chicago, IL 60605
1:40 PM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 43°F
Feels Like: 39°F
Forecast: Overcast. Mostly cloudy throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 100%
Wind: ESE 7 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Chicago by -5.5
OveUnder: 41
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 6-9-1, Chicago 12-4
Where to Watch on TV
NBC will broadcast Sunday’s game to a national audience. Al Michaels will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Collinsworth will provide analysis. Michele Tafoya and Heather Cox will report from the sidelines.
Internet Streams
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Streams
Disclaimer: Subscription Based Official NFL Radio Streams available via TuneIn
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (41st season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Bears Radio
Chicago Bears Network Jeff Joniak (play-by-play) and Tom Thayer (analyst) will call the game with Zach Zaidman on the sidelines.
National Radio
Westwood One Radio will carry the game nationally with Kevin Harlan (play-by-play) and James Lofton (analyst) and Laura Okmin(sideline).
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Bears Channel National Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 82 (Internet 825) SIRI 83 (Internet 805) SIRI 88 (Internet 88)
XM Radio XM 226 (Internet 825) XM 225 (Internet 805) XM 88 (Internet 88)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 226 (Internet 825) SXM 225 (Internet 805) SXM 88 (Internet 88)
Eagles Social Media Bears Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: chicagobearsnfl
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST W PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Strk
Cowboysx 10-6 .625 7-1 3-5 5-1 9-3 339 324 15 2W
Eaglesy 9-7 .563 5-3 4-4 4-2 6-6 367 348 19 3W
Redskins 7-9 .438 3-5 4-4 2-4 6-6 281 359 -78 2L
Giants 5-11 .313 2-6 3-5 1-5 4-8 369 412 -43 3L
[x]-Clinched Division [y]-Clinched Wildcard [z]= Clinched 1st round bye [*]-Clinched Home Field Advantage
NFC Playoff Picture
Seed Team Division Record
1 Saints South 13-3
2 Rams West 13-3
3 Bears North 12-4
4 Cowboys East 10-6
5 Seahawks West 11-4
6 Eagles East 9-7
This Weekends NFC Games
Game Time Location
Seahawks @ Cowboys 1/5/2018 8:15PM EST AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Eagles @ Bears 1/6/2018 4:40PM EST Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
AFC Playoff Picture
Seed Team Division Record
1 Chiefs West 12-4
2 Patriots East 11-5
3 Texans South 11-5
4 Ravens North 10-6
5 Chargers West 12-4
6 Colts South 10-6
This Weekends AFC Games
Game Time Location
Colts @ Texans 1/5/2018 4:35PM EST NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Chargers @ Ravens 1/6/2018 1:05PM EST M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Series Information
Chicago Bears lead the Philadelphia Eagles (30-14-1), (Eagles lead 2-1 postseason)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
November 12th, 1933 at the Baker Bowl in Philadelphia, PA. Chicago Bears 3 - Philadelphia Eagles 3
Points Leader
The Chicago Bears lead the Philadelphia Eagles (977-710)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 2-0 against the Bears
Matt Nagy: 0-0 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Matt Nagy: First Meeting of the Coaches
Quarterback Record
Nick Foles: Against Bears: 1-1
Mitch Trubisky: Against Eagles 0-1
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Nick Foles vs Mitch Trubisky: First Meeting between the QBs
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Series tied: 2-2
Record @ Soldier Field: Bears lead Eagles: 8-6
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 15 - Bears No. 3
Record
Eagles: 9-7
Bears: 12-4
Last Meeting
Sunday, November 26th, 2017
Eagles 31 - Bears 3
he game many expected could be a trap for the Eagles turned into a rout of the Bears 31-3. The Eagles controlled both sides of the line of scrimmage and dominated the Bears running backs sending them the wrong direction as they ended the day with -6 yards rushing. The Eagles secondary also picked off Mitch Trubisky twice on the day. On offense, the Eagles running game was on point as they ran for 176 and Carson Wentz threw for 3 TDs and 227 yards before an early exit in the 4th quarter to prevent injury and give Nick Foles some playing time. The Eagles had their first 100 yard receiver this season as Zach Ertz crossed the century mark. The game wasn’t perfect though both Blount and Ajayi fumbled the football running and Malcom Jenkins fumbled after making a nice interception.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last Meeting at Site
Monday, September 19th, 2016
Eagles 29 - Bears 16
In Wentz’s second career game he threw for 190 yards and a TD while showing plenty of poise, just as he did in his debut against Cleveland. Ryan Mathews found the end zone two times rushing. The Eagles held the Bears in check most of the day and while Philadelphia was pulling away, Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler walked to the locker room with a right thumb injury and did not return. That was the biggest blow for the Bears (0-2), who lost several players and fell again after opening with a loss at Houston. It's not the sort of start they envisioned in their second year under coach John Fox after finishing last in the NFC North. But they continued to struggle at home, where they were 1-7 in 2016.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
11/26/2017 Eagles Bears 31-3
9/19/2016 Eagles Bears 29-14
12/22/2013 Eagles Bears 54-11
11/7/2011 Bears Eagles 30-24
11/28/2010 Bears Eagles 31-26
11/22/2009 Eagles Bears 24-20
9/28/2008 Bears Eagles 24-20
10/21/2007 Bears Eagles 19-16
10/3/2004 Eagles Bears 19-9
11/3/2002 Eagles Bears 19-13
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Bears Bears
2018 Weekly Matchup Picks
Wildcard - "Expert" Picks
2018 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Bears Season Stats
2018 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Foles 141 195 72.3% 1413 7 4 96.0
Trubisky 289 434 66.6% 3223 24 12 95.4
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Adams 120 511 36.5 4.3 3
Howard 250 935 58.4 3.7 9
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Ertz 116 1163 72.7 10.0 8
Cohen 71 725 45.3 10.2 5
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Cox 10.5 44.0
Mack 12.5 50.0
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Jenkins 97 79 18 1.0
Smith 121 89 32 5.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
Douglas 3 10
Fuller 7 27
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 61 2937 68 48.1 42.7 24 7 0
O'Donnell 62 2791 65 45.0 39.7 28 7 1
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 31 26 83.9% 61 33/35
Parkey 30 23 76.7% 50 42/45
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Scott 4 96 24.0 35 0
Cunningham 8 173 21.6 31 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Sproles 10 83 8.3 14 0 9
Cohen 33 413 12.5 44 0 21
League Rankings 2018
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bears Stat Bears Rank
Total Offense 365.7 14th 343.9 21st
Rush Offense 98.1 28th 121.1 11th
Pass Offense 267.2 7th 222.8 21st
Points Per Game 22.9 18th 26.3 9th
3rd-Down Offense 41.0% 12th 41.0% 11th
4th-Down Offense 60.9% 10th 60.0% T-11th
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 57.9% 17th 66.7% T-6th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bears Stat Bears Rank
Total Defense 366.2 23rd 299.7 3rd
Rush Defense 96.9 7th 80.0 1st
Pass Defense 269.3 30th 219.7 7th
Points Per Game 21.8 12th 17.7 1st
3rd-Down Defense 35.3% 6th 34.3% 4th
4th-Down Defense 57.9% 19th 57.1% 18th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 44.6% 1st 50.0% T-5th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bears Stat Bears Rank
Turnover Diff. -6 25th +12 3rd
Penalty Per Game 6.3 9th 6.1 8th
Penalty Yards Per Game 53.3 T-8th 49.8 6th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - Video – The Eagles looked to keep their season alive and Super Bowl MVP came out to play as Foles threw tied an NFL record for most consecutive completions when threw 25 straight completions that were part of 221 yards 2 TD 1 INT stat line. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles were even more dominant against a beat up Redskins offense holding them to a paltry 89 yards on offense in a shutout. Fletcher Cox feasted with 3 sacks in the game and Douglas had an interception as the Eagles got the job done against their division rival.
Bears - Video – The Bears took on their division rival with a bye at stake if the 49ers were able to pull an upset over on the Rams. The Vikings had more to play for as they were win and in for the playoffs came out flat as the Bears dominated them in every aspect of the football game. The Vikings 84 million dollar man does what he does in big games and crumbled throwing for just 132 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, the Bears refused to let up as Howard and Cohen combined for 134 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. Once the Ramns game was out of reach many backups came in for the Bears, but it didn't make a lick of difference as they held onto the win and knocked their division rival out of the playoffs allowing the Eagles to sneak in who they will play this Sunday.
Connections
Bears HC Matt Nagy got his first coaching job with the Eagles in 2008 working as in intern and moving up to a coaching assistant in 2010 and offensive quality control coach in 2011-12.
Eagles HC Doug Pederson and Bears Hc Matt Nagy are both part of the Andy Reid coaching tree and the two worked together with the Eagles and Chiefs from 2009-2015.
Bears OL Coach Harry Hiestand was bord in Malvern, PA and attended East Stroudsburg University which is where his coaching career began.
Eagles DE Chris Long is the older brother of Bears OL Kyle Long.
Trey Burton was a signed as an undrafted FA in 2014 and played 4 seasons with the Eagles from 2014-2017 winning a Super Bowl with them in 2017 and was part of the magical "Philly Special" throwing the TD pass to Nick Foles.
Bears K Cody Parkey played 2 seasons with the Eagles from 2014-2015.
Bears backup QB Chase Daniel played 1 season with the Eagles in 2016.
Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery was drafted by the Bears in 2nd round of the 2012 draft and played 5 seasons with them from 2012-2016.
Eagles S Corey Graham was drafted by the Bears in the 5th round of the 2007 draft and played 5 seasons with them from 2007-2011.
Eagles S Deiondre’ Hall was drafted by the Bears in the 4th round of the 2016 draft and played 2 seasons with them before he was traded to the Eagles in 2018 for a 2019 7th round pick.
Eagles CB Cre'Von LeBlanc played 2 seasons with the Bears from 2016-2017.
Eagles LS Rick Lavato (Husband to Demi Lavato per Tony Romo) was signed as an undrafted FA by the Bears in 2015, but waived at the end of training camp.
Eagles VP of Player Personnel Joe Douglas worked as the director of scouting for the Bears in 2015.
Eagles Director of Pro Personnel Dwayne Joseph played for the Bears from 1994-1996 and worked for the Bears in various scouting roles (Coordinator of player programed (1998-2000), Director of Player Development (2001-2003), Assistant Director of College Scouting (2012), Assistant Director of Pro Personnel (2013-2015).
Eagles OC Mike Groh worked as the Bears WR Coach from 2013-2015.
Eagles DL Coach Phillip Daniels played four seasons for the Bears from 2000-2003.
2019 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Bears
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) OLB Khalil Mack (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) CB Kyle Fuller (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz (Starter) FS Eddie Jackson (Starter)
RS Tarik Cohen (Starter)
DT Akiem Hicks
General
Referee: Tony Corrente
Philadelphia is 2-1 all-time vs. Chicago in the playoffs. The last time the Eagles faced the Bears in the postseason was on 1/19/02, when they won 33-19 at Soldier Field.
Philadelphia has won 3 consecutive regular-season games vs. Chicago. Since 1994, the Eagles have produced a 10-5 record against the Bears (including playoffs).
The Eagles and Bears have faced off 48 times, but have only tied once in their first meeting in 1933.
Avonte Maddox has allowed the second lowest passer rating in the NFL this season.
In the last 2 years, Nick Foles is 8-0 in games started (and finished) for the #Eagles in December or later.
Chicago finished first in defensive DVOA — both regular and weighted (which factors in recent performances more). They were first against the pass and second against the run.
The Bears allowed an NFL-low 17.7 points per game.
Fun Fact
On New Year’s Eve, 1988, the Eagles lost a postseason heartbreaker to the Bears in Chicago, in a game that has gone down in history as “The Fog Bowl.” Meteorologically, the title was well-earned. Lake Michigan sent a blinding sheet of fog over Soldier Field late in the first half, and the haze stayed put until the very last play. Visibility was so bad that most players couldn’t see beyond 10 yards in front of their faces. Up in the public address booth, Bears play-by-play announcer Jim Riebandt had to get game updates relayed to him from an usher who was standing on the field with a two-way radio. Video
Draft Picks
Eagles Bears
TE Dallas Goedert LB Roquan Smith
CB Avonte Maddox C James Daniels
DE Josh Sweat WR Anthony Miller
T Matt Pryor LB Joel Iyiegbuniwe
T Jordan Mailata DT Bilal Nichols
DE Kylie Fitts
WR Javon Wims
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Bears
WR Mike Wallace OLB Khalil Mack
WR Markus Wheaton WR Allen Robinson
DT Haloti Ngata TE Trey Burton
P Cameron Johnston WR Taylor Gabriel
DT Bruce Hector K Cody Parkey
LB DJ Alexander QB Chase Daniel
WR Jordan Matthews OLB Aaron Lynch
QB Tyler Bray
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Bears
DE Vinny Curry LB Jerrell Freeman
WR Torrey Smith OG Josh Sitton
RB Kenjon Barner LB Pernell McPhee
RB LaGarrett Blount LB Christian Jones
LB RB Mychal Kendricks S Quintin Demps
CB Patrick Robinson L Cairo Santos
TE Trey Burton DE Mitch Unrein
DT Beau Allen LS Andrew DePaola
P Donnie Jones OL Thomas Compton
WR Marcus Johnson WR Kendell Wright
TE Brent Celek WR Cameron Meredith
LB Will Compton
TE Niles Paul
PFF Stats to Know
Chicago Running Backs
Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard are going to need to be planned for. With injuries to the Eagles' defensive backfield, it's going to be a major task. Let's get to it. Cohen and Howard will not get many yards after contact (the Bears' offense generally does not generate much YAC or RAC). Cohen is ranked 58th and Howard is 37th in rushing yards after contact per attempt Cohen is tied for a close 2nd in % targets for overall snaps and 7th in % of his targets coming from the Slot. When aligned in the Slot, though, Cohen has generated the 2nd-most Yards Per Route Run, at 3.19. Overall, Cohen has the highest YPRR and 3rd-most receiving yards of RBs. Cohen has had an atrocious 7 fumbles in 2018 (3 lost). Jordan Howard is 7th in 1st Downs generated and 47th in Yards Per Attempt. Howard is 6th in Rushing Attempts (250), still, for 935 yards (14th).
Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (join.profootballfocus.com/edge/)
WDB Matchups
Matchups to Watch
Eagles Offensive Line vs. Bears Pass Rush
The Eagles snuck into the playoffs after week 17 with some help from their current opponent 10 years after the 44-6 beat down of the Cowboys to accomplish the same feat. The Eagles enter the playoffs as the 6 seed and rightful underdogs even with the recent success and face a Bears team that is strong on both sides of the ball - especially on defense. There are many layers to this matchup but for the Eagles it'll always start up front. Prior to the season the Bears traded for Khalil Mack after Jon Gruden decided to be an idiot. The Bears defense was already pretty good but Mack pushed the unit over the top. The Eagles have game planned for Mack before when he was on the Raiders and held him in check for the most part. However, the depth of talent on the Bears defensive front far surpasses the talent on the Raiders 2017 defensive front. To make matters worse for the Eagles, the Bears defense is strong at all 3 levels so they'll really need to win regularly up front to have any kind of success on offense. Akiem Hicks is a stout IDL who is having a strong season in a year where IDL across the league are making big impacts. Eddie Goldman is another DT for the Bears and together with Hicks formed a formidable duo prior to Mack's arrival. Mack and Hicks both have over 50 pressures for Bears defense and force a lot of offenses into making mistakes. Additionally, the entire defensive front is stout against the run as well. This is a complete unit and will need the Eagles OL to rise to the occasion as they have so often of late. Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks, and Jason Kelce form the best right side of an OL in the NFL and all are having All Pro caliber years. Despite not playing at his usual Hall of Fame level, Jason Peters is still a good left tackle and Wis or Seumalo can hold their own at LG. This is a premier battle that can really help the Eagles win since there are many layers to this Bears defense as it is that will make the Eagles offense earn everything it can get. In their push for the post season, the Eagles defense neutralized the pass rush for the Cowboys, Rams, Texans, and Redskins on two occasions. They'll need it again for this one.
Eagles Defensive Line vs. Bears Offensive Line
The Bears enter this contest with one of the best offensive lines in terms of pass blocking efficiency per PFF this season and have veteran Kyle Long making his second consecutive start after returning from injury. Additionally, Matt Nagy runs a creative offense that does a lot to ease the pressure the offensive line can face. Fletcher Cox is having another All Pro caliber season for the Eagles with 95 pressures (per PFF) this season; that number is second only to Aaron Donald in the NFL. That's not just for his position, that is for all pass rushers. Cox is a complete player that will likely draw a lot of attention from the Bears offensive line. They'll need Timmy Jernigan and Haloti Ngata to step up opposite him and make some noise with the 1v1 matchups they'll likely get. Furthermore, Michael Bennett, Chris Long, and Brandon Graham will need to continue with their high level of play of late and take advantages of the matchups they'll get with the extra attention Cox will receive. As with any young QB, Trubisky is far less effective as a passer when he is under pressure and can be prone to throwing an interceptable pass or two. The Eagles defense has been very opportunistic of late forcing a lot of turnovers. The depleted secondary has done their part but it's the defensive line that can really change the game. Trubisky has made a lot of progress since last year but is still mistake prone. This is fine for the Bears as he'll likely improve especially with the quality coaching he has around him. But for now, this Eagles defense can help win this game by forcing him into negative plays. Lastly, controlling the Bears offensive line in the run game will help make the offense one dimensional. Force the Bears offense into unfavorable down and distances and their success rate drops. It'll be important to keep them off schedule and the defensive line will play a big role in that.
Eagles Pass Defense vs Bears Weapons
The Bears have done a great job surrounding Trubisky with plenty of weapons that can attack and win against every defense in a variety of ways. They added the big body receiver in Allen Robinson, the speedster in Taylor Gabriel, the versatile WR Anthony Miller, Trey Burton, and finally Tarik Cohen as a natural matchup nightmare for any defense. All of these guys have a trump card that can help the offense win and all are solid route runners to give Trubisky space to throw the football. Jordan Howard is a solid running back and it'll be important to contain him but Tarik Cohen is the matchup nightmare the Eagles must contain. Cohen will line up everywhere and take a lot of snaps as a wide receiver which gives the Bears the ability put the offense up against favorable defensive alignments. He's explosive with the ball in his hands and is a true competitor. The offense is much more dynamic and explosive when he is on the field. Lately the Eagles defense has done a great job containing opposing RBs but the depth of weapons and the scheme Nagy runs will really test the Eagles back end. Jim Schwartz has done a great job helping this defense finish 12th in points allowed, 1st in red zone defense, and 6th best third down defense despite all of the injuries. They'll need that performance again against an offense that'll stress every blade of grass and take what you give them.
Eagles Pass Offense vs Bears Pass Defense
This is the matchup every fan should be worried about no matter how much you trust the coaches and QB to execute at a high level. The Bears enter this contest with the leagues best pass defense with plenty of high end talent and excellent coaching that have largely shut down their opposition all year. Additionally, the Bears secondary is incredible at forcing turnovers and lead the league by a large margin in interceptions. The Bears added a ton of playmakers on offense to help out Trubisky but have a ton of playmakers on defense to elevate the entire team. Few teams have been as good as the Bears have against the pass this year and 3 of the 4 that did it won the Super Bowl - leave it to the Vikings to choke. If there is a "weakness" to this defense it is outside at CB (Amukamara), LBs in coverage, and Eddie Jacksons injury status (though he'll likely play). Points will be tough to come by as will running. I would expect the coaching staff to try to use the short passing game like they did against the Texans as an extension of the run game to keep the offense on schedule. An additional benefit of this attack is it gives Foles high percentage throws to limit the potential for turnovers. The Eagles need to take this game to the Bears defense but do so smartly. Even if Amukamara is a "weak link" he really isn't a weak link. Even if the Bears don't have elite coverage LBs they have 2 Safeties that are great in coverage. It would be smart for the Eagles to take their shots with Alshon Jeffery as he is their best man coverage receiver. It would be pretty surprising for the Eagles to put up an offensive performance similar to the NFCCG but they do have the talent to be able to at least score some points. They just need to be mindful of all the things Fangio does on the back end to confuse the QB and generate turnovers. The offense needs to stay on schedule to limit low percentage opportunities.
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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NFL WEEK 7 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL BREAKDOWN — CHIEFS VS. BRONCOS Bet On It - College Football Picks & Predictions for Week 7, Line Moves, Barking Dogs & Best Bets 2014 NFL Week 7 Excel Picks Algorithm College Football Week 7 Betting Odds and Picks NFL Week 7 Picks in Excel

The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more. 2020 NFL Weekly Pick Sheet Notes: The 2020 NFL Weekly Schedule is typically released in May and is constructed using the following process.. Throughout the season, Sunday night games are subject to change due to the NFL's flexible scheduling policy.. Spread data was originally set by PointsBet prior to the start of the season and is based on pre-season projections. Check out this NFL Schedule, sortable by date and including information on game time, network coverage, and more! 2020 NFL Bye Weeks. The 2020 NFL schedule has been released, giving us a look into the upcoming season.Bye Weeks start at Week 5, and last until Week 13 again.There will be no international games this season, which means every team will have their true home and road games. How to Run a Weekly Pick 'em Pool ; Pass out a copy of the current week's schedule to family, friends, and co-workers. Each participant should circle the team they think will win each game, they should also write down what they think will be the total number of points scored in the Monday Night Football game.

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NFL WEEK 7 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL BREAKDOWN — CHIEFS VS. BRONCOS

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