As a long-time contributor to this sub, I know we love nothing more than discussing our degeneracy. If nothing else, hearing such stories makes you realise there are other people out there who have lived similar experiences to you. Stories of epic failure provide a sense of comfort. Stories of unexpected triumphs provide a feeling of hope.
The following bets - and the circumstances surrounding each - were not necessarily story-worthy. However, there were a number of intricate details which I felt were worth highlighting. Aside from the statistical rollercoaster than one experiences throughout a game (i.e. going from "how can this lose?" to "this bet is over"), there are other factors which can have significant ramifications for one's betting endeavours.
This is where the factor of timing comes into play. How often have you bet on something purely due to the fact that the game was starting shortly? It could either be a straight wager on the game. Or, you might have decided to add the short-priced "lock" to boost your odds. How often has this then come back to bite you? Or conversely, this random event - where your betting urge coincided with the scheduled timing of this event taking place - results in a recuperation of losses from previous games that you "studied" prior to placing your losing wagers?
Without further ado, this is my story. It is but a speck in the ocean that is my entire betting career. But it was a Sunday night full of swings, sweats and... well I won't spoil the ending.
As you read this, I want you to keep the headline in mind. Specifically, the words timing, luck and degeneracy. It's early on a Sunday evening in Melbourne, Australia. Approximately 6PM to be exact. We are currently under the world's strictest COVID lockdown. We have an 8PM curfew, and I was keen to get in a 1 hour walk before returning home to make dinner. Now typically - as I had already walked my dog several hours earlier - I would not go for another on my own. But for some reason, I just had an urge to get some fresh air. Here is the first element in play:
timing. At 6:10PM, an AFL (Australian Football) was scheduled to begin. As I begin my walk, I inevitably flick through my preferred bookmaker's iPhone app and this game catches my eye. Part of me says "don't bet it". The other part of me curb-stomps that voice in my head and says "don't be a pussy". Now on another note, I placed a daily deposit limit of $3000 on my account. To some, that is insanely big. I generally bet $1000 or so, and so this stops me from stupidly chasing the day's losses. Here is where another element peaks it's head:
luck. I had deposited $1750 that day. Had I reached my limit, the following events would only have existed in a parallel universe. But as luck would have it, I had $1250 to play with. So I said 'fuck it' and made the deposit. It's about 6:05PM now and I don't have much time. I sift through the markets on offer and decide it's best to play a Same Game Multi (parlaying multiple events from the same game). With not much time left to make a decision, I quickly check the weather forecast in Gold Coast (where this game is taking place) and note that there is meant to be rain in the second half. (Spoiler: there was no rain in the second half). As this sport is played outdoors, this would favour the unders. So I come up with a bet that looks like this:
- First quarter OVER 23.5
- First half OVER 48.5
- Full match UNDER 125.5
- West Coast +34.5 handicap
- Margin: either team by 1-39
- Bontempelli 15+ disposals
- Macrae 20+ disposals
ODDS: 4.10 A bet of $1250 would pay $5125.
I was ready to place the bet. The problem? The match was only seconds from beginning.
The time stamp on when the bet was accepted:
18:09:55 I made it by 5 measly seconds.
Ok, so game begins rather uneventfully. Now it's worth noting for those who aren't familiar with AFL that you can score by 1's and 6's. It's late in the first quarter and the total is sitting at 22 points. Needing over 23.5, I'm in desperate need of a goal. The whole bet is about to come crashing down without it. With only seconds remaining a player marks the ball from a score-able position. The siren sounds. Now in AFL, if a mark is taken before the siren ("buzzer"), the player may take their kick. As luck would have it, this legend kicks it right through the middle of the goal posts, and the first quarter score ends on 28. We live on!
Second quarter ends, and the combined total is 52 points. Again, we survive the over 48.5 by less than a full goal! (But this one cleared with a handful of minutes left to play, so there was no sweat involved).
I'l wrap up the remainder of the game fairly quickly, as it is rather uneventful. The final score is 47-49, so the total under 125.5 hits easily, the +34.5 and margin 1-39 hit comfortably, and both players rack up well over their required disposals. Fantastic. My account hits $5125.
By this stage, some would be satisfied. I wasn't. I was out for blood.
The smart move would have been to withdraw, say, $4000. Play with the remaining $1125 (house money), and lock in a profit. But what's the fun in that?
I scroll through the upcoming events and see that there is a Chinese Super League (soccer) match starting in a few hours. This isn't the first example of
degeneracy in this story, but it's probably the biggest.
So what do I do? Another Same Game Multi of course. And how much do I bet on it? $5125 of course.
The bet:
- Beijing Guoan: win or draw
- Total corners: OVER 7.5
- Total goals: OVER 1.5
- BOTH teams to score in BOTH halves: No
ODDS: 1.95 A bet of $5125 would pay $9993.75
Here's where the rollercoaster of events begins.
5 minutes in, we have our first corner.
13 minutes in, we have our second.
Corners are looking good.
Fast forward to half time and Beijing are leading 2-0.
- BOTH teams to score in BOTH halves: No = WINNER
- Total goals: OVER 1.5 = WINNER
- Beijing or draw = TBD, but looking good!
- Corners OVER 7.5 = ONLY 2 FUCKING CORNERS IN THE FIRST HALF!
Remember, they had already accumulated 2 corners 13 minutes into the match. 32 minutes without a single corner!
The live odds for over 7.5 were now over 3.00, and I was losing hope.
The second half begins and approximately 10 minutes passes without a corner. I'm fucked.
The next 15 minutes feels like God (aka Bob from NBA Daily Discussion) had blessed me. A flurry of corners results in an 8th corner before the 70th minute mark!
What looked like a total sweat, turned into the easiest of victories. Or so I thought...
The final leg: Beijing or draw - who by the way, were 1.50 favourites to win the match - were still up 2-0. One book had the opposing team at 81.00 odds to win from here. But you guys can guess what happened next.
Wuhan goal!
I'm still leading 2-1. My brain: "it's all good man, you still have a 1 goal buffer".
Barely a few minutes later...
Wuhan goal!
It's now 2-2. My brain: "it's cool, you just need a draw, you're still likely to win this".
Including the 6 minutes of added time, I have to sit through approximately 20 excruciating minutes of soccer, with just under $10k on the line.
Luckily, Beijing did 75% of the attacking. Wuhan did have a few minor chances, but nothing that made the heart sink.
The referee blew the full-time whistle, and I slowly unclenched my ass cheeks.
I waited to see my account balance, just to make sure all was kosher. (You know, we've all been there, when we thought we bet on a certain team, but because their names are all Chinese, you actually bet on the wrong Beijing or something like that).
My balance appeared at $9,993.75.
It was time to call it a night.
I reflected on the past 6 or so hours that I had just been through, and the 3 things that kept popping up in my mind again were
timing, luck and
degeneracy. P.S.
Sorry to all the Djokovic and Heat backers. Brutal. Especially Djokovic. I'd say that's a once-in-a-career circumstance, but I think that would be understating how unlikely it is that the best player in the world get's DQ'd because he inadvertently hit a ball into an official's neck out of frustration.
Context - The S&P 500 advanced as much as 0.6% on Tuesday on the back of continued strength in the value and cyclical stocks, but broad-based selling in the last hour of trading left the benchmark index down 0.8% snapping a seven-session winning streak. The Nasdaq underperformed with a 1.7% decline.
The late-day selling was attributed to comments from Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY), who told
Fox News that White House officials have yet to reconvene with congressional Democrats regarding fiscal relief for households and businesses.
Growth and defensive-oriented stocks saw increased selling that weighed on the S&P 500 information technology (-1.8%), utilities (-2.2%), real estate (-1.9
The financials (+1.3%) and industrials (+0.5%) sectors managed to close higher due to their perceived value.
Notably, U.S. Treasuries and precious metals had sizable pullbacks. The 2-yr yield increased three basis points to 0.16%, while the 10-yr yield increased eight basis points to 0.66% -- this curve-steepening activity was a boon for the financial stocks.
Gold futures fell 4.5% to $1946.90/ozt. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 93.72. WTI crude futures declined 0.7% to $41.66/bbl.
President Trump floated the idea of cutting taxes on capital gains and middle-income families to further stimulate the economy.
Russia jumped ahead key testing stages to approve a COVID-19 vaccine. It appears unlikely that Congress would approve such legislation or that people would seek out the Russian vaccine.
Index Summary - S&P 500 -0.83%; Nasdaq -1.88%;
DOW -0.34%; Russell 2000 -0.58%
VIX: 24.03 1.9,( +8.59%)
Sector Summary - The three highest sectors for today were : Financials +1.16%; Industrials +0.53%; Materials -0.18%;
The three lowest sectors for today were : Utilities -2.16%; Real Estate -1.92%; Information Technology -1.8%;
Commodities - Gold - 1927.3,( -0.98%); Crude - 41.58,( -0.07%)
Today’s Option Activity Fast Facts - CBOE Put/Call Ratio - 0.45
Highest Multiple Over Daily Average - AFL with 43 x the ADV of 1825. There were 39464 calls and 38616 puts.
Ticker with Most Contracts - BAC with 690590 contracts traded today with an AVD of 323255. There were 460137 calls and 230453 puts.
Largest Put / Call Ratio - XLC with a 21.02 P/C ratio. There were 10155 puts and 483 calls.
Largest Call / Put Ratio - ILF with a 156.22 C/P ratio. There were 17497 calls and 112 puts.
\Stocks must be >$6, Highest Multiple must have >1k ADV, Largest ratios must have an option volume >10k*
Recap - SNAP 21.6 -0.42,( -1.91%)
KRE 41.18 +0.79,(+1.96%)
YELP 23.36 +0.31,(+1.34%)
MT 12.32 +0.04,(+0.33%)
You can find yesterday's post here. MOMENTUM UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY - First Momentum Stock Pick - Ticker : XOM 44.97 +0.46,(+1.03%)
Earnings : 2020-10-30
Name : Exxon Mobil Corp.
Industry : Integrated Oil,
Sector : Energy Minerals
Special Considerations : ExDiv
Option Information - Today’s Option Volume: 379352,
OptionOI: 1471812
Multiple of ADV: 5,
ADV: 72744
Total Calls: 309412,
Total Puts: 69940
Calls at Ask: 42.4%,
Calls at Bid: 24.2%
Puts at Ask: 27.4%,
Puts at Bid: 31.0%
C/P Ratio: 4.4
Notable Strikes : AUG 14 '20 42.0 C had 11519 VLM and 3969 OI.
AUG 14 '20 43.0 C had 7051 VLM and 2362 OI.
SEP 18 '20 37.5 C had 5115 VLM and 1557 OI.
SEP 18 '20 40.0 C had 9490 VLM and 3189 OI.
OCT 16 '20 35.0 C had 7304 VLM and 2216 OI.
JAN 15 '21 30.0 C had 10400 VLM and 2062 OI.
News : 2020-08-11 19:22 - P97 Networks to Drive Mobile Commerce For ExxonMobil Affiliate Across Its New Zealand Retail Network
SINGAPORE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--P97 Networks, Inc., has been selected by Mobil Oil New Zealand Limited, an affiliate of ExxonMobil Asia Pacific Pte Ltd, to enable mobile payments across its Mobil-branded retail network in New Zealand. ExxonMobil Asia Pacific is the downstream and chemical business hub for the region with over $15 billion of assets under affiliate management. Houston-based P97 Networks is a leader in cloud-based mobile commerce, in-vehicle payments, and frictionless digital marketin
2020-08-11 12:36:01 - Exxon to buy renewable diesel from Global Clean Energy for five years
U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil said on Tuesday it has signed an agreement with Global Clean Energy to buy 2.5 million barrels of renewable diesel per year for five years to help reduce its carbon footprint.
Potential Sympathy Stocks for XOM
CVX, COP, TOT, BP
My Impression : The Multiple of ADV, Calls at Ask %, and C/P ratio all look good. This stock historical has been a cornerstone as a method to invest oil as well as great dividend. The stock has risen today likely secondary to news of the vaccine in Russia. It does seem that the tide towards Corona Virus has turned and I would expect this stock to perform well mid-term. I’ll likely be investing a portion of my portfolio in this tomorrow.
Second Momentum Stock Pick - Ticker : RF 11.93 +0.43,(+3.74%)
Earnings : 2020-10-20
Name : Regions Financial Corp.
Industry : Major Banks,
Sector : Finance
Option Information - Today’s Option Volume: 66077,
OptionOI: 105874
Multiple of ADV: 30,
ADV: 2190
Total Calls: 65479,
Total Puts: 598
Calls at Ask: 45.4%,
Calls at Bid: 43.7%
Puts at Ask: 40.6%,
Puts at Bid: 37.4%
C/P Ratio: 109.5
Notable Strikes : AUG 21 '20 13.0 C had 8413.0 VLM and 0 OI.
SEP 18 '20 13.0 C had 51010 VLM and 0 OI.
News : No news for today.
Potential Sympathy Stocks for RF
PNFP, TRMK, ONB, WFC
My Impression : The C/P ratio, MADV, and Calls at Ask % all look bullish. I’ve had a number of banking stocks on here and they have not fared well historically. These stocks are still down considerably from their pre-corona highs. It seems many are betting for a comeback on the banking sector eventually. With this particular stock, the pre-corona highs were around $17. I’ll be following this one closely. The 13C with 51k VLM is very interesting.
CLASSIC UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY - First Classic UOA Stock Pick - Ticker : NVAX 149.48 -29.03,( -16.26%),
Earnings : 2020-11-04
Name : Novavax, Inc.
Sector : Health Technology,
Industry : Biotechnology
Option Information : 2020-08-14 177.5 C - 563 @ 3.50 were traded at 11:09 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 164.09
News : 2020-08-11 12:01:02 - After Mixed Q2 Report, Novavax Analyst Details Possible Coronavirus Vaccine Catalysts
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX ) released better-than-expected bottom-line results for the second quarter Monday, although revenue trailed estimates. An analyst at H.C. Wainwright said they're focusing on the key milestone events for the company's coronavirus vaccine candidate after the print. The Novavax Analyst: Vernon Bernardino reiterated a Buy rating on Novavax with a $290 price target. The Novavax Thesis: The robust Phase 1 results Novavax reported for its coronavirus vaccine NVX-CoV2373 point to the high likelihood of positive confirmation of efficacy and safety at the "5+50" dose in Phase 2 testing, analyst Bernardino said in a Tuesday note. (See his track record here.) This is a positive late third-quarter … Full story available on Benzinga.com
Potential Sympathy Stocks for NVAX
SRPT, AGEN, EBS, BCRX
Second Classic UOA Stock Pick - Ticker : SRNE 14.085 -4.735,( -25.16%),
Earnings : None
Name : Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc.
Sector : Health Technology,
Industry : Biotechnology
Option Information : 2020-08-21 19.0 C - 655 @ 2.10 were traded at 09:56 as a SWEEP Spot Price: 17.38
2020-08-21 20.0 C - 475 @ 2.30 were traded at 11:32 as a SWEEP Spot Price: 18.09
News : 2020-08-11 11:18:54 - Trade Cautiously With Sorrento Therapeutics
Short-term traders may want to nail down profits and be careful in their trading strategy with this name….NVAX
Potential Sympathy Stocks for SRNE
KPTI, EXEL, TRVN, GERN
Upcoming Events for Next Trading Day - Here you can find a full list of tomorrow's events with explanations. Thanks for reading.
DISCLAIMER – These are my observations that I have made at the end of each day and trades that I am considering placing or watching. I am not responsible for your financial losses if you follow any of these trades. As always, do your due diligence.
Company Summary : XOM
Exxon Mobil Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and distribution of oil, gas, and petroleum products. It operates through the following segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical. The Upstream segment produces crude oil and natural gas. The Downstream segment manufactures and trades petroleum products. The Chemical segment offers petrochemicals. The company was founded by John D. Rockefeller in 1882 and is headquartered in Irving, TX.
Company Summary : RF
Regions Financial Corp. operates as a bank holding company. It provides traditional commercial, retail and mortgage banking services, as well as other financial services in the fields of investment banking, asset management, trust, mutual funds, securities brokerage, insurance and other specialty financing. The company operates through the following segments: Corporate Bank, Consumer Bank, and Wealth Management. The Corporate Bank segment represents the company's commercial banking functions including commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and investor real estate lending. The Consumer Bank segment holds the company's branch network, including consumer banking products and services related to residential first mortgages, home equity lines and loans, small business loans, indirect loans, consumer credit cards and other consumer loans. The Wealth Management segment offers individuals, businesses, governmental institutions and non-profit entities a range of solutions to help protect grow and transfer wealth. Regions Financial was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Birmingham, AL.
Company Summary : NVAX
Novavax, Inc. is operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, which focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. It produces vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats by using the proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology. The firm's vaccine candidates include ResVax and NanoFlu. It also develops immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants through its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary, Novavax AB. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.
Company Summary : SRNE
Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. engages in the research, development and manufacture of biopharmaceutical products. It focuses on therapies to treat specific stages in the evolution of cancer, from elimination, to equilibrium and escape which include biosimilars, immuno-oncology antibodies, cellular therapy, cell internalizing antibodies, and antibody drug conjugates. The company was founded by Henry H. Ji in 2006 and is headquartered in San Diego, CA.
submitted by Part 2 of 3
GLOSSARY DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread DVOA from
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019 Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-8.5)
Bengals ATS: 5-7-1
Browns ATS: 4-7-1
Projected Team Totals: Bengals 16.25 Browns 24.75
Bengals
Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): AJ Green (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Tyler Boyd (22%) Auden Tate (20%) Alex Erickson (14%) Tyler Eifert (11%) Joe Mixon (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Joe Mixon (79%, 23, 4) Gio Bernard (20%, 2, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown The Bengals somewhat surprisingly made a move to improve their chances of winning games down the stretch, benching struggling rookie
Ryan Finley for
Andy Dalton (2 QB only). The move paid off last week as they finally won their first game of the year. Dalton operated as more of a game-manager than a gunslinger, and appears headed for a similar role in a game where the Bengals have one of the lowest projected team totals of the week. The Browns aren’t an imposing matchup - giving up the 11th most FPPG to QBs this season - but Dalton isn’t in the streaming conversation outside of deep 2 QB leagues. Leave him on the wire.
Zac Taylor’s offense hasn’t produced much of note this year, but some of that is due to injuries.
AJ Green has wisely stayed off the field and appears likely to call it a year and try to land a big contract.
John Ross has missed most of the year with a shoulder injury, but is projected to return this week after being activated from IR. That has left
Tyler Boyd (PPR) and
Auden Tate (stash) to lead the charge through a lost season. With Ross back, Tate becomes a much less appealing WR3 option, but his steady play and impressive catches should keep him on the field. Boyd has been able to carve out some low-end WR2 value this season, but much of that has been volume based. It is clear, however, the entire passing game gets a boost now that Dalton is back under center. Individual matchups are unlikely to play a role, as the Browns haven’t been shadowing as much this year. They aren’t a scary matchup either, ranking middle of the pack in pass DVOA and FPPG allowed to WRs.
Boyd is on the WR2/3 borderline in PPR leagues,
Tate is a low-end WR3, and
Ross is only a dart throw WR4/5 in his first game back from injury. Proceed with caution, but there might be some decent value here down the stretch.
Tyler Eifert isn’t a fantasy option at this point.
RB Breakdown Certainly not what owners hoped for when they drafted him, but the last 5 games for
Joe Mixon (volume upgrade) have returned steady RB2 value. He’s averaging 22 touches a week during that stretch, and a few additional red zone touches have helped to boost his value. The Browns aren’t stout against the run - ranking bottom third by DVOA - so the bigger concern is potential negative game-script and low projected point total. Still, he’s the best bet for a TD among Bengals’ skill players, and has the talent to make something out of nothing a few times a game. View Mixon as a volume-based RB2, and plug him into lineups unless you are stacked at the position.
Gio Bernard is a must-handcuff for Mixon owners (due to his 3-down ability), but has zero standalone value at this point.
Browns
Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): DE Sam Hubbard (Q) S Shawn Williams (Q) S Brandon Wilson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): OL Chris Hubbard (Q) OL J.C. Tretter (Q) WR Odell Beckham Jr. (Q, likely to play)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (18%) Antonio Callaway (11%) Nick Chubb (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Nick Chubb (59%, 17, 2) Kareem Hunt (65%, 12, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown The Browns season of disappointment continued last week with an ugly loss to Pittsburgh.
Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was dinged up, but has practiced in full this week and should be good to go with little limitation on Sunday. The bigger issue is the clear lack of cohesion in the passing game in Cleveland, as Mayfield has struggled to connect with his talented duo of WRs throughout the year. The matchup with the Bengals offers some reason for optimism - they have given up the 7th most FPPG to QBs - but Mayfield is still a risky option in 1 QB leagues in the first week of playoffs. His ceiling is low due to the overall lack of offensive production, and his floor is dangerous with how many picks he’s thrown and the lack of rushing production. Consider him a high-end QB2 due to the matchup, but be sure to consider all options before plugging him into your lineup.
It feels crazy to even consider benching
Odell Beckham Jr., but owners are surely fed up with his lack of production. Week 14 offers some upside based on the matchup - Bengals have the 31st ranked pass DVOA but cede the 10th fewest FPPG to WRs - but nothing is guaranteed with the Browns this year.
Jarvis Landry (PPR upgrade) has been the more consistent producer of late, which makes sense given Mayfields tendency towards quick throws behind a porous offensive line.
Beckham is best viewed as a WR2 this week, as he’s capable of blowing up any week, but his floor is lower than it should be.
Landry is a solid WR2 in PPR leagues, and can be used as a WR3 in standard leagues; his ceiling isn’t the highest but his floor is higher than Beckham’s. It seems unlikely that
David Njoku (stash) will be activated this week, but is worth rostering if you have the space. His backups are not fantasy options, so ignore this spot unless Njoku suits up, but even then be cautious.
RB Breakdown It appears the
Kareem Hunt (PPR upgrade) truthers have been validated; the former Chiefs Pro Bowl RB has siphoned significant touches from
Nick Chubb (upgrade) during his four active games, and the results have been pretty impressive. Hunt isn’t getting the volume that Chubb is, but his big-play ability and pass game chops have helped him churn out solid flex value. Chubb remains in the low-end RB1 ranks, due to his consistent volume and talent, but his floor has been reduced by Hunt’s receiving presence. The Bengals have given up the 7th most FPPG to RBs, so both backs are on the radar this week.
Hunt is more attractive in PPR leagues, where he’s a borderline RB2, but can still claim flex value in standard leagues.
Chubb is an auto-start as long as he’s getting a majority of the work, and the plus matchup give his owners more confidence this week.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Bengals 20 Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Panthers ATS: 6-6-0
Falcons ATS: 4-8-0
Projected Team Totals: Panthers 22.75 Falcons 25.25
Panthers
Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #27
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #13
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): CB Desmond Trufant (Q, likely to play)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CAR): TE Greg Olsen (D) OL Greg Little (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Moore (27%) Christian McCaffrey (21%) Curtis Samuel (17%) Greg Olsen (14%) Jarius Wright (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Christian McCaffrey (99%, 21, 13)
QB/WTE Breakdown The second half of the season hasn’t been kind to the Panthers; after a solid start they’ve lost 5 of their last 6.
Kyle Allen (2 QB only) had a solid game against the Redskins sub-par pass defense, but hasn’t inspired much trust from owners as a streamer, coming up short in multiple plus matchups. The Falcons have improved drastically on defense the past few weeks, but have still given up the 14th most FPPG to QBs the past four games. Allen is in play as a 2 QB streamer, but shouldn’t be in lineups in 1 QB leagues unless owners are absolutely desperate. The run-game is king with the Panthers, and Allen doesn’t have the ceiling (or the floor) to be an exciting start for owners at this point.
The uneven play at quarterback hasn’t stopped the Panthers from boasting two productive fantasy receivers.
D.J. Moore (auto-start) has been the more consistent presence, and his recent hot stretch has him in the top-10 of WRs on the season in most formats.
Curtis Samuel (upgrade standard) has been on the receiving end of the third most incomplete deep balls on the season (16), and although that hasn’t stopped him from producing a decent season, we’re consistently left wanting more with him (Rotoworld). The matchup is decent - the Falcons cede the 8th most FPPG to WRs and have a bottom barrel pass DVOA - but Atlanta was able to shut Allen down completely in Week 11 and have limited Drew Brees to a combined one TD in two games the past month.
Moore has earned borderline WR1 status, especially so in PPR leagues, and should be in all lineups.
Samuel is more of a boom-bust WR3 at this point, but is an upside play for those looking for a potential week-winning performance in their fantasy playoffs.
Greg Olsen (injury downgrade) hasn’t been great this year, but his floor is higher than many at the position and he offers consistent production. However, he’s in danger of missing the game due to a concussion in Week 13. Keep an eye on injury reports, as
Ian Thomas (possible upgrade) would become an intriguing TE1/2 streamer if Olsen sits. During a three week stretch without Olsen last season, Thomas was a solid TE1. Olsen is a decent but uninspiring TE2 if he plays.
RB Breakdown There’s little argument at this point that
Christian McCaffrey (auto-start) is the top RB in fantasy, and likely in real life as well. He plays near 100% snaps, and leads the league in scrimmage yards (by almost 300!) among skill players. Start him as always, and enjoy the ride. Roster
Reggie Bonnafon as a handcuff if you have the space.
Falcons
Opp (CAR) Pass DVOA: #7
Opp (CAR) Run DVOA: #32
Injuries to Watch DEF (CAR): S Eric Reid (Q) DT Gerald McCoy (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OL James Carpenter (Q) WR Julio Jones (Q, likely to play) TE Austin Hooper (Q, likely to play)
Key WCB matchups: Julio Jones vs. James Bradberry (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (17%) Austin Hooper (14%) Devonta Freeman (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 5) Brian Hill (26%, 7, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown With questions swirling around the future of head coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons veteran players continue to fight hard in a lost season.
Matt Ryan has had an ugly real-life season, but still ranks in the QB1 range on the season. He gets a tough matchup against the Panthers this week - 7th best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs on the season - but should also get his top WR back. View Ryan as a low-end QB1, but one that will likely do enough this week to be worth starting unless owners have an elite alternative option. If
Julio Jones sits again, however, his outlook should be downgraded.
In many situations, a team destined for a high draft pick would shut down their ailing stars and call it a season. Atlanta doesn’t fit that bill though, as they are playing for pride, and their head coach is playing for his job. That means there’s a
Julio Jones (start if active) returns this week, even at less than 100%. The matchup is somewhat challenging - Panthers have the 7th best pass DVOA but give up the 11th most FPPG to WRs - and James Bradberry may shadow Jones. But if he’s in their lineup, he’s in your lineup. He’s simply too good to bench unless we hear word of a certain limitation on his snaps.
Calvin Ridley (possible upgrade) picked up the slack with Jones out last week, and would get a boost with him on the sidelines again. If Jones does play, he’s still a solid WR2 as he’s scored in every game he’s played against the Panthers (Rotoworld). He should be in most lineups.
Russell Gage (bench unless Jones sits) was useful last week in Jones’ stead, but would only have WR3 appeal if Jones sits again. If that’s the case, he’s still a risky start, but would have a decent target floor at least.
Austin Hooper (start if active) is close to returning, and logged a limited practice on Thursday. If he returns, he immediately slots in as a top-8 TE1 with upside. If he sits, there isn’t a great fill-in option. Monitor this closely if you own Hooper, as it looks possible he’s ready to go on Sunday.
RB Breakdown The Falcons run game has been an unmitigated disaster this year, and no back has been able to produce consistent value for Atlanta.
Devonta Freeman (upgrade) is back close to full health and receiving a majority of the touches, but has failed to eclipse 100 yards from scrimmage in all but three healthy games, and is still without a rushing TD. He’s the clear leader of this backfield, but is tough to trust at this point. He gets perhaps his best matchup of the season this week - Carolina has the worst rush DVOA and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to RBs on the season. It’s a risky play, but Freeman is deserving of RB2 status based on the matchup and on his position as a home favorite. It would help if he got more targets, but as it is he should get 15+ touches and some quality rushing lanes considering the Panthers soft front seven. Get him in your lineups as an RB2/flex.
Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Panthers 21 Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-14)
Lions ATS: 5-7-0
Vikings ATS: 6-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Lions 14.25 Vikings 28.25
Lions
Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Harrison Smith (Q) DE Everson Griffen (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DET): QB Matthew Stafford (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Marvin Jones (19%) Kenny Golladay (18%) Danny Amendola (18%) T.J. Hockenson (13%, IR) J.D. McKissic (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Bo Scarbrough (47%, 21, 0) Ty Johnson (33%, 6, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown With
Matt Stafford (back) dealing with an injury that has kept him out since Week 10, and
Jeff Driskel being placed on IR with a hamstring,
David Blough has taken control of the Lions offense for likely the rest of season. An undrafted rookie in his first NFL start, Blough didn’t look half-bad against an imposing Bears' defense on turkey day. Next up is another good defense, and it seems likely that the rookie regresses with teams having some tape on him. He’s not worthy of consideration in any format.
The good news for
Kenny Golladay owners is that he balled out on 5 targets last week. The bad news is that he only got 5 targets. The Vikings have been roasted by wideouts this year, so it could be considered a smash spot - MIN gives up 25.4 FPPG to WRs - so get Golladay and
Marvin Jones active. Expectations need to be tempered, however, as Jones himself only saw six targets. Both are upside WR3’s, but can’t be considered anything more, due to a rookie making his second start in a tough road matchup.
T.J Hockenson (ankle) was placed on IR, ending his rookie season.
Jesse James and
Logan Thomas are expected to fill the void, but neither is a recommended stream until we find out where the volume is going.
RB Breakdown Bo Scarbrough has performed a hostile takeover and is now the lead back for the Lions, relegating
Ty Johnson and
J.D. McKissic to complementary roles. He’s better suited to standard formats, as he has no role in the passing game. However, any running back receiving 20+ touches can be considered a solid flex in most leagues. The matchup isn’t good - MIN cedes just 16.9 FPPG to RBs. Plus, it’s likely that DET faces a negative game-script on the road, meaning Scarbrough would be phased out in a comeback bid. Still, he at least warrants flex consideration, but it’s recommended to go a different route if available.
Vikings
Opp (DET) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (DET) Run DVOA: #20
Injuries to Watch DEF (DET): CB Jamal Agnew (Q) DL Da’Shawn Hand (Q) CB Rashaan Melvin (Q) DL Damon Harrison (Q, likely to play)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): WR Adam Thielen (Q) OL Riley Reiff (Q) RB Dalvin Cook (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Darius Slay (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (19%) Dalvin Cook (18%) Kyle Rudolph (14%) Irv Smith (12%) Bisi Johnson (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Dalvin Cook (left early with injury) (44%, 12, 4) Alexander Mattison (49%, 8, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown Another primetime Monday night showdown, another loss for
Kirk Cousins (upgrade). From a fantasy perspective, he was serviceable though, and gets a great matchup this week against the Lions. Detroit has given up the 8th most FPPG to QBs on the season, and rank in the bottom-tier in DVOAs pass defense metric. The loss of Adam Thielen, who looks likely to sit again this week, has lowered his ceiling slightly, but Cousins should still be viewed as a low-end QB1 with upside due to the plus matchup. He’s safe to plug in playoff lineups unless you have a top-8 alternative option.
The Vikings haven’t needed a high volume passing game in most of their games, and that has rendered
Stefon Diggs an inconsistent WR2 this season. If
Adam Thielen sits again, it’s tough to bench Diggs in any format considering his week-winning upside. He’s also likely to see shadow coverage from Darius Slay, but has been relatively productive in past matchups with him, so it isn’t much of a downgrade. He’s a solid WR2 given the conditions.
Thielen would get the better matchup in this case, so if he’s active you need to have him in your lineup.
Kyle Rudolph (possible upgrade) has been on fire with Thielen out, so if that’s the case again this weekend, get him fired up as a TE1. His role in a play action oriented offense means he gets a lot of high percentage looks, many of which are in the red zone. If Thielen returns, Rudolph gets a slight downgrade, but has likely been playing too well to bench at this point unless you have a great alternative option.
RB Breakdown For a moment, it looked like owners of
Alexander Mattison might have an RB1 on their hands for the fantasy playoffs.
Dalvin Cook (upgrade, auto-start) went down with a shoulder injury last week and didn’t return, but reports have been extremely positive this week. Assuming Cook plays, he’s an easy RB1 unless we hear reports of a limited workload. The matchup with the Lions is as soft as they come, and only CMC has been a more productive back this year. If he’s a surprise inactive, Mattison becomes an RB1, and should be rostered in all leagues regardless (if he isn’t already..). Get Cook in your lineup if he’s active.
Score Prediction: Vikings 31, Lions 20 Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5)
Dolphins ATS: 6-6-0
Jets ATS: 5-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Dolphins 19.25 Jets 24.75
Dolphins
Opp (NYJ) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (NYJ) Run DVOA: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (NYJ): CB Maurice Canady (Q) DE Henry Anderson (Q) DB Matthias Farley (Q) SS Jamal Adams (Q) CB Arthur Maulet (Q) LB Paul Worrilow (Q) NT Steve McLendon (Q) CB Brian Poole (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): C Connor Hilland (Q) WR Rashawn Scott (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeVante Parker (24%) Preston Williams (23%) Mike Gesicki (15%) Mark Walton (14%, SUS) Allen Hurns (11%) Albert Wilson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Patrick Laird (60%, 14, 5) Kalen Ballage (15%, 3, 1) Myles Gaskin (22%, 3, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown Miami got into the win column again last week, devastating an Eagles squad looking to make the playoffs. On tap is a disappointing NYJ team that is extremely banged up, making for an even better matchup than it already was.
Ryan Fitzmagic (upgrade) has been on fire the last several weeks, scoring over 20 fantasy points in three of his last five games. Injuries aside, the Jets secondary is an appealing matchup when healthy, giving up 17.5 FPPG to QBs and 24.8 to WRs. The passing game outlook for MIA is great, but keep a couple things in mind. Miami has been significantly worse on the road in 2019. It shows in the box score, as they have rolled up just 1084-yards passing in road games, versus 1749-yards at home. Plus they’ve only tossed 5 touchdowns on the road, versus 9 at home (pro-football-reference). Additionally, although this team has progressively gotten better over the course of the year, it’s still a 3-9 Miami Dolphins team that has received a beat down on a bi-weekly basis. All of this is to say, I don’t have a problem with streaming
Fitzmagic, but just know that it’s extremely high-risk, high-reward. You are just as likely to get 10 fantasy points as you are 20. It’s anyone’s guess if the Fitzpatrick we’ve seen the last couple weeks shows up, or if it’s the one that threw six picks in a game as the Jets QB. Proceed at your own risk. Also, obligatory Fitz revenge game comment here.
I’d like to point out again, that we at DFAroto wrote about a potential
DeVante Parker (upgrade) post-hype (or should it be never-again-hype?) breakout in our wide receiver review for the preseason. However, not even the biggest Parker truthers could imagine that he would be receiving WR1/2 treatment by the end of the season. I personally swapped my Parker shares out for
Preston Williams (IR) early in the season. I digress, Parker has been an absolute stud the last few weeks, culminating in a magnificent performance against the Eagles. He literally put the team on his back. It was the kind of performance that we all saw Parker having, albeit about 3 years too late. Fire Parker up as an upside WR2, he needs to be in all lineups. Don’t consider
Allen Hurns or
Albert Wilson, it’s not worth it. The No. 2 passing game option,
Mike Gesicki (upgrade) has earned back-end TE1 status with his most recent 5-79-1 performance. It appears that SS Jamal Adams is in real danger of missing Sunday’s contest, if he is unable to go, further upgrade the second-year tight end.
RB Breakdown Before going down with injury,
Kalen Ballage (IR) was historically bad. He averaged 1.82 yards on 74 carries. Since the AFL/NFL merger, no runner with that many carries had averaged below 2.25 yards per carry (Rotoworld).
Patrick Laird (stash) was the one to benefit after the Ballage injury, producing five yards and a touchdown on the ground while adding 4-38-0 receiving.
Myles Gaskin (stash) is also sure to be involved and will be the second man in the RBBC. Both are risky plays against an imposing front seven, and owners should look to stash, not start. Miami’s run game has been atrocious this season, and going against a good run defense isn’t the spot to expect anything different.
Jets
Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): OLB Chase Allen (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NYJ): RB Le’Veon Bell (Q) T Kelvin Beachum (Q) G Alex Lewis (Q) TE Ryan Griffin (Q) WR Demaryius Thomas (Q) T Chuma Edoga (Q) WR Quinton Patton (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jamison Crowder (20%) Robby Anderson (15%) Le’Veon Bell (14%) Ryan Griffin (14%) Demaryius Thomas (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Le’Veon Bell (85%, 14, 5) Bilal Powell (15%, 6, 2) Ty Montgomery (5%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown It appears that even with a healthy
Sam Darnold (upgrade) at the controls, the Jets are still the same inconsistent team that showed up when Darnold was sidelined with Mono. CIN got their first win of the season against them last week, and the game wasn’t even close, as the Bengals held Adam Gase’s offense to just two field goals. On tap is another great matchup, and it’s likely that Darnold bounces back. Consider him a back-end QB1 streamer - MIA is giving up the second highest amount of FPPG to QBs at 22.5, and the 3rd most to wideouts, ceding 27.4 FPPG.
Robby Anderson (upgrade) continued his late season breakout, posting 7-101-0 against CIN. MIA hemorrhages chunk plays through the air, giving up explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on 12% of plays, 3rd highest in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). That sets up the deep play threat for the Jets nicely, and Anderson can be considered an upside WR3.
Jamison Crowder (upgrade PPR) busted last week along with most of the offense, but still saw 9 targets. He’s also in a great spot to bounce back, and he deserves a pass for the down week. Get him out there as a WR2. Don’t consider
Demaryius Thomas, he’s not worthy.
Ryan Griffin has continued to make the most of his limited targets. MIA is a great matchup for all positions including TE, giving up 7.4 FPPG to the position. Continue to get him out there as a low-end TE1.
RB Breakdown It appears that
Le’Veon Bell is in real danger of missing Sunday with an illness, and if he is unable to go, it’ll be a mix of
Bilal Powell and
Ty Montgomery. Owners have to hope that Bell can gut it out for the first week of fantasy playoffs - MIA has been eviscerated by the run - ceding 22.5 FPPG to RBs. If Bell misses, our preferred play is Powell. However, it’s risky, and due to unknown workload he can’t be recommended as more than a desperation flex option.
Score Prediction: Jets 27, Dolphins 24 Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Colts ATS: 6-5-1
Buccaneers ATS: 4-8-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 22.25 Buccaneers 25.25
Colts
Opp (TB) Pass DVOA: #19
Opp (TB) Run DVOA: #1
Injuries to Watch DEF (TB): OLB Anthony Nelson (OUT) CB Jamel Dean (Q) CB M.J. Stewart (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND): WR T.Y. Hilton (OUT) K Adam Vinatieri (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Eric Ebron (19%, IR) Zach Pascal (17%) Jack Doyle (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Parris Campbell (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Jonathan Williams (22%, 9, 4) Nyheim Hines (43%, 6, 2) Jordan Wilkins (44%, 13, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown Indianapolis’ season sans
Andrew Luck has gone from overachieving, to what most expected. Sitting at 6-6 with an O/U of 8 wins for the season, the Colts are exactly where oddsmakers expected them to be with 4 games left.
Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) while solid, hasn’t been an amazing fantasy producer. He’s just the QB18 on the season. Even without his best offensive weapon in
T.Y Hilton (calf), Brissett does have streaming appeal against Tampa Bay’s leaky secondary. TB gives up 21.8 FPPG to QBs and 31.3 to WRs, league worst. Consider Brissett a low-end QB1, if you have no other option he can be used in a pinch. With
Eric Ebron hitting the IR,
Jack Doyle (upgrade) showed out with a 6-73-1 receiving line. He was used as the No. 1 passing game option last week with 11 targets, and should continue to see plenty of opportunity. He’s the tight end start of the week - TB gives up 10.1 FPPG to the position, 2nd most.
With Hilton out,
Zach Pascal (upgrade) is again relevant. He received the 2nd most targets on the team last week with 10, and converted 7 for 109 scoreless-yards. Against TB is a smash spot, and he should again be heavily targeted, even with rookie
Parris Campbell expected to make his return. Get Pascal in lineups as an upside WR3, the matchup couldn’t be better. The other options for the Colts are too risky, leave them on the wire.
RB Breakdown With
Marlon Mack (downgrade) expected to make his return from injury, both
Jonathan Williams and
Jordan Wilkins are safe to set back on the wire. TB boasts the top Run DVOA, so it’s not a good matchup for Mack to return to. Regardless, you aren’t sitting the stud RB, just temper expectations - TB gives up just 11.4 FPPG, 2nd best in the league.
Buccaneers
Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND): CB Kenny Moore (OUT) S Malik Hooker (Q) Rock Ya-Sin (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TB): RB T.J. Logan (OUT) G Alex Cappa (OUT) WR Scotty Miller (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Mike Evans (25%) Chris Godwin (20%) Cameron Brate (14%) Breshad Perriman (11%) O.J. Howard (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Peyton Barber (39%, 17, 0) Ronald Jones (28%, 6, 0) Dare Ogunbowale (30%, 3, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown The dichotomy of
Jameis Winston is fascinating to watch, and unfortunately, this may be the last year we get to witness the catastrophe in action. Bruce Arians was noncommittal in a recent interview about the 25-year old signal caller’s future in The Big Guava. The matchup on deck isn’t an enticing one, but it’s not an imposing one either. IND cedes big plays through the air of 20+ yards on just 8% of plays, good for 15th in the league - While TB creates plays of 20+ yards through the air on 10% of plays, good for 11th in the league (sharpfootballstats). Something has to give, and it seems a good bet that the smaller Colts CB’s (Rotoworld) can’t handle the bigger TB wideouts. Winston is a mid-range QB1 in a decent matchup - IND gives up 16.4 FPPG to QBs and 23.2 to WRs.
Mike Evans and
Chris Godwin had been alternating big weeks until last week; a blowout win in which both wideouts put up almost nearly identical lines of 4-53-0, and 4-50-0 respectively. Somehow, Winston didn’t toss a touchdown or an interception in a game TB won 28-11. Both wideouts are WR1’s, and both belong locked in lineups regardless of matchup. The other options in this offense are much dicer propositions.
Breshad Perriman had his best performance of the season last week, but hasn’t done enough to warrant consideration. It was
O.J. Howard with the playable fantasy day in Week 13, but both he and fellow tight end
Cameron Brate have been much too inconsistent to play. Leave them on the wire.
RB Breakdown It appears that ‘starting’ running back for TB is a promotion in name only. Despite Bruce Arians insistence that
Ronald Jones is that, the workload doesn’t match the title. Jones was out-touched by
Peyton Barber 17-6, and was vultured at the goal line twice. This backfield simply cannot be trusted for playoffs, even with the good matchup. Owners cannot predict where the volume is going on a weekly basis, and due to that, the backfield is a recommended fade.
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Colts 20 AFL fixtures, results and scores from the Toyota AFL Premiership Season, JLT Community Series and the AFLW Season by round AFL Betting Results for Round 11 WEEKLY RESULTS SUMMARY – Round 11 BOOOOOOOM….Back in the winner’s circle after a tiny loss in Round 10. Despite starting the round slower than a snail in peanut butter, our AFL handicapper went bang with some ripping bets. The highlight of the weekend was the Josh Kennedy middle which delivered 9.29 units profit in one hit. AFL Live Official App. Watch every game LIVE of the 2020 Toyota AFL Premiership Season, Toyota AFL Finals Series, and Marsh Community Series. Subscribe through the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store for $4.99 per week, $16.99 per month or $99.99 for an annual pass. Archived betting odds and match results from AFL. Archived results guide you through the aussie rules AFL historical results and winning odds. Get the latest AFL Football betting and odds here at tab.com.au. Take 2 minutes to join Australia's #1 sports betting site and bet on our wide range of markets today.
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