2017 -- Look Back At It

• CB: After Sam Shields went down early in the year the team was forced to roll with second-year men Ladarius Gunter, Damarious Randall, and Quinten Rollins. Including the postseason, they gave up passer ratings of 112.4, 113.4, and 133.8, respectively. Despite his sky-high passer rating against, Rollins earned the best PFF grade of the group... at 58.1, or "poor." Gunter and especially Randall were significantly lower, and yet they were still better than the various practice squad guys we trotted out late in the season. Micah Hyde moonlighted a bit at corner, but didn't play there primarily and still only qualified as "average." Coming into 2017, even with the free agent addition of Davon House and a high 2nd-rounder spent on Kevin King, the entire position group was a question mark.
• RB: Despite a few impressive yards/attempt showings (5.1 for Eddie Lacy, 5.9 for Ty Montgomery) no Green Bay running back eclipsed 500 rushing yards in 2016. Between injuries and ineffectiveness the team gave 246 carries to the likes of 30-year-old James Starks, Christine Michael, Knile Davis, and Don Jackson, plus assorted FBs and WRs. Montgomery appeared to be the best option by the end of the year, but outside of a casual fist-fucking of the Bears (162 yards, 10.1 yards/attempt, 2 TDs) he only had two other games with 50+ yards on the ground. General Manager Ted Thompson added 3 backs through the draft coming into 2017, but none were taken higher than the 4th round.
• ILB: This position had been a concern since before AJ Hawk left, back before the 2015 season. 2016 rookie Blake Martinez was expected to make an impact early, but he wound up playing just 43% of defensive snaps, including less than 25% of defensive snaps in each of the last three regular season games. The consensus was that he had tailed off or gotten into the coaches' doghouse. He, along with fellow ILBs Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas, remained unproven after 2016. Despite no standout in the position group, no ILBs were added through the draft or free agency heading into 2017.
• TE: As noted above, DickRod has never been bad, but he's never been good at anything, either. He's the type of player who's OK as a backup if he's cheap, but if you have him as a starter he's on the upgrade list. DickRod had played all 16 games in 2016, and wound up with about as many targets and exactly as many receptions as the talented (but injured and ultimately overhyped) Jared Cook. Teddy T swapped out Cook for Martellus Bennett before 2017 in what was perceived at the time as an upgrade.
• Pass rush: Although the team tied for 6th in the league with 40 sacks in 2016, the only Packer with 10+ sacks was Nick Perry, who had an injury-plagued history and who had never come up with more than 4 sacks in a season before. The team's second-leading sack artist, Julius Peppers, left for Carolina after 2016. Clay Matthews -- the only other Packer that year with 5+ sacks -- had just 5 sacks, and had just turned 30. The front office added 3rd-round DT Montravius Adams, 4th-round OLB Vince Biegel, and 33-year-old free agent Ahmad Brooks to shore up the group heading into 2017, but concerns lingered.

1. Packers vs. Seahawks, W 17-9. With the stage set, let's go through the victim's last moments. The Packers opened the year with a tough home win against Seattle. Despite a halting game from the offense, the D balled out and kept Lore and Co. out of the endzone. Recently departed Eddie Lacy runs for a whopping 3 yards on 5 carries; he goes on to average just 2.6 yards/attempt on the year despite averaging 5.1 yards/attempt in 2016 with Green Bay (and very publicly meeting Seattle's offseason weight goals). Is this a (raging) clue that the Packers' offensive line is actually pretty good, or just further evidence that Seattle's line blows? Maybe it's both?
   
2. Packers @ Falcons, L 23-34. The Falcons jump out to a 31-7 lead, and they're shitting their pants. At first it's just a little squeak from between clenched cheeks when the announcers first bring up 28-3. But then Rodgers starts to go off -- he finishes with 343 yards passing, and the Falcons finish soaking through their shorts. The announcers keep bringing up 28-3. Ty Montgomery keeps squirting through holes en route to 110 yards (on 16 carries) from scrimmage and 2 TDs. The Falcons keep furiously squirting hot lava. The announcers keep hammering 28-3. Matt Bryant has died of dysentery. Is there a (raging) clue here about shitty defense? Is allowing 27 defensive points (7 came from an Atlanta fumble return for a TD) to a team that averaged 33.8 points per game in 2016 that bad, or does shit like that just happen in the modern NFL?
   
3. Packers vs. Bengals, W (OT) 27-24. Again we see the Packers go down early, falling behind 21-7 after Rodgers' first career pick six. The defense locks up, and Green Bay is able to tie it up and then (finally) get Rodgers a win in OT. At this point close observers were starting to worry about Ty Montgomery -- through this game he had just 124 rushing yards while averaging almost exactly 3.0 yards/attempt. Had the front office adequately addressed the RB position in the offseason? Is the line just not good enough?
   
4. Packers vs. Bears, W 35-14. According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers had a 94.3% chance of winning with 9:49 on the clock... in the first quarter. Rodgers chipped in 4 TDs (on just 179 yards passing!), Aaron Jones sees his first significant action (49 yards on 13 carries, 1 TD), and Chicago coughs up 4 turnovers. The calm before the storm.
   
5. Packers @ Cowboys, W 35-31. In a troublingly familiar pattern, the Packers are down 21-6 halfway through the 2nd quarter. In addition to Rodgers posting a sterling 122.9 passer rating, the comeback happens because of two breakout games. First, Aaron Jones goes for 125 and a TD on 19 carries, treating Dallas linebackers like Ezekiel Elliot treats Dallas DJs. Second, Damarious Randall -- coming off a awful sophomore season, coming off getting benched against Mike Fellatiating Glennon the week before -- comes up with a pick six and some clutch coverage down the stretch. We're also seeing the rise of Davante Adams (7 for 66 and 2 TDs) and the fall of Jordy Nelson (2 for 24 and 1 TD). The (raging) clues here point to a pretty decent supporting cast for Rodgers.
   
6. Packers @ Vikings, L 10-23. Aw, fuck. Rodgers gets railed (with gawd as my witness he's broken in half!), Hundley gets railed (39.6 passer rating!), Jones comes back to earth (41 yards on 13 carries), and Monty continues his poor start (28 yards on 10 carries). Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, shooting up and listening to "The End" on a loop. The defense didn't play bad overall (23 points allowed; the Vikings would average 23.9 for the season) but Hundley sure didn't get a ton of help from the rest of the offense.
   
7. Packers vs. Saints, L 17-26. Hundley plays awful -- 39.9 passer rating, 87 passing yards -- but the defense plays reasonably well (gives up 26; the Saints average 28.0 on the year) and Jones comes to play (131 yards and a TD on 17 carries). The Packers actually have a 52.5% chance of winning early in the 4th quarter. At this point it looks like if Hundley can improve a little, and if we can ride Jones for a stretch, and if the defense keeps playing OK we might be able to hang in there. I think this perspective (and a general lack of quality backup options) is what kept the front office/coaching staff from picking up another QB over the upcoming bye week. At the same time, this game is squarely on Hundley -- he had the run game working, the defense wasn't getting torched, but he couldn't even move the ball 100 yards in the air.
   
8. Packers vs. Lions, L 17-30. After an extra week of preparation, Hundley plays... reasonably well. 245 yards passing and an 86.0 passer rating is a huge improvement over the Saints game. That performance probably would have won the Saints game. The problem is A) the defense gets lit up and B) the run game fails to show up. This wasn't a game where it's close throughout and a late Lions TD makes the score look worse; this is a game where the Packers were down 10, then 17, then 20 before scoring a garbage time TD of their own to make it look more respectable. Based solely (raging) clue is now pointing towards the roster not offering enough support for the QB. No 40-yard rusher, no 60-yard receiver.
   
9. Packers @ Bears, W 23-16. It's a bad situation. The team is 4-4, headed to the Illinois Bears, and the Mitch Brutitsky has replaced the giraffe. Everyone is looking forward at the schedule -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Cleveland -- and wondering how likely a 3-1 record over that stretch is if Chicago wins today. Hundley takes another step forward -- 110.7 passer rating, 212 yards, 1 TD -- and after Jones goes down with an ACL sprain Jamaal Williams and Monty combine for 142 yards from scrimmage. Adams shows up (5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD), too, and while the defense gives up almost 297 yards and a big TD late, it locks down in crunch time and holds on for the win. This is the blueprint that was envisioned after the Saints game: Passable passing, a strong run game, solid enough defense. No one is calling for Hundley's head at this point (why would they?) and it's back to looking like he has enough tools around him to make this thing work.
   
10. Packers vs. Ravens, L 0-23. Just when everything was going so well, Hundley craps out a 4-turnover game. He moved the ball alright (239 yards), Williams ran hard against a good defensive front (95 yards from scrimmage), and Adams brought his fistin' shoes (8 catches for 126 yards)... the turnovers were just insurmountable. The Ravens kicked field goals after drives starting on the Packers' 29 and 30, and scored a TD after a drive starting on the Packers' 3. That's all but 10 of the Ravens' points that the offense gifted them. A cleaner offensive game would have been highly winnable -- it was only 0-6 at the half -- but Hundley just didn't have it. He had plenty of help; Hundley's starting to look like the season killer.
    
11. Packers @ Steelers, L 28-31. Aaaaand he's back -- 245 yards, 3 TDs, 134.3 passer rating. He got a lot of help from Williams (135 yards from scrimmage, 2 TDs) and some big catches from Adams (5 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD), but Hundley played about as good of game as he could against a legitimate opponent on the road. This is one reason why the front office/coaching staff never picked up another QB -- every time Hundley shat the bed, he'd follow it up with a "huh, maybe he can do it" performance. The defense didn't play well, but they did keep three Hall of Famers from running away with the game. This is another loss where the team had a legitimate shot to win; another (raging) clue that the roster isn't all that bad. Bad rosters wind up in a lot more blowouts.
    
12. Packers vs. Buccaneers, W (OT) 26-20. Plenty of help from the running game (113 rush yards and a TD from Williams, a walk-off 20-yard TD from Jones in OT) and the defense turned in a winnable performance (7 sacks, a turnover, 20 points allowed, clutch stop late). Hundley forgot how to pass again (84 yards, 48.3 passer rating) but was a huge factor on the ground during the last two scoring drives (39 of his 66 rushing yards came after 6:00 left in the 4th). This is reason number two why the Packers didn't bring in another QB -- even when he couldn't pass, he could still run to the tune of 7.5 yards/attempt over the course of the season.
    
13. Packers @ Browns, W (OT) 27-21. The trap game of all trap games. The winless Browns, late in the season, playing a team with a backup QB. No one knows what to expect of Hundley at this point -- is he going to be Steelers Hundley or Buccaneers Hundley? Despite yet another slow start -- a flashback-inducing 7-21 deficit heading into the 4th -- he wound up with a 111.2 passer rating on 265 yards and 3 TDs. He even chipped in 31 yards on the ground to compliment Williams' 118 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs, and Adams further solidified his role on the team with 10 catches for 84 yards and 2 TDs. The return game even came to life with a key 65-yard punt return to set up the tying score. The defense struggled early but pitched a shutout in the 4th quarter and OT, including a pick that gave the offense the ball in Cleveland territory on the final drive. Pretty? No, but it got the job done. Isn't that what good teams do? How often do bad teams get big picks to ice the game, or pull out 60+ yard punt returns when it's late and close? We keep seeing example after example of the team getting itself in a position to win, which does an awful lot to exonerate the front office and coaching staff. And ultimately, the roster and coaching staff were good enough to keep the ship afloat long enough for Rodgers to have something to come back to. Isn't that the primary goal of any team who's forced to start their backup?
    
14. Packers @ Panthers, L 24-31. And just like that, it's gone. Rodgers played well all things considered, but he clearly was physically limited, and that resulted in 3 uncharacteristic turnovers. That makes all the difference in a one-score game. What's important to our mystery of "who killed the Packers season?" is how the rest of the team played, and if they folded when playing with a clearly reduced Rodgers (71.5 passer rating). Williams and Jones combined for an efficient 77 rush yards on 13 carries, two receivers went over 70 yards, and three different players caught a TD pass. The special teams unit pulled out an onside kick when everyone in the stadium knew it was coming, and Rodgers was able to march into Carolina territory before a Geronimo Allison fumble iced the game. Again, non-QB parts of the team stepping up and giving a limited passer an opportunity to win. My (raging) clue is pointed pretty solidly towards Hundley at this point.
    
15. Packers vs. Vikings, L 0-16. With playoff hopes eliminated, the Packers decided to tank. They shut down their MVP-caliber QB, and who knows how many other medical decisions suddenly became far more cautious because there was nothing to play for. Still, another winnable game. It was 10-0 at the half, and the Vikings' last field goal was gifted to them after a drive that started on the Green Bay 14; the essentially gave up just 13 to an offense that averaged 24 in the regular season. Had Hundley had a passer rating above 30.2 maybe the Packers could have stayed in it. His hands are looking pretty bloody.
    
16. Packers @ Lions, L 11-35. 113 combined yards from Williams, 59.7 passer rating from Hundley. The defense got shredded through the air (140.4 passer rating for Stafford), but the offense never really gave the team a chance, either. A bad game all around, but hey, they were tanking.