How to Bet a Trifecta - Online Horse Betting

Look first of all I'd like to be honest with you, I'm not going to claim I "stumbled" upon some "crazy secret system" that nobody knows. In fact, probably more than a few people know what I'm talking about in this article. The truth is that I've been playing the Preakness among many other horse races, for at least 15 years.
The Preakness is the first throroughbred race I ever attended, back in the 1990's. I had played at harness tracks, having been introduced to that at a young age, but had never been to a throroughbred track until 1996.
That year, my good friend and fellow horseplayer convinced me we should go to Pimlico for a big infield party and some big horse races would break out at some point. I didn't know or care much about anything except the infield party and thought it would be fun. We brought a 12 pack and settled in.
Early in the afternoon on the way up, we tuned in to the Baltimore rock station and were hearing all kinds of live music from some of our favorite bands such as Pearl Jam. We were just about pissed off at the fact that we missed some of these bands live, only to show up and find it was just a DJ playing live cuts, and the few local bands on deck hadn't even started playing yet.
I was young and after the party was over and horse races had broke out, I was wondering why Louis Quatorze had won the Preakness and we hadn't bet on him. After that I began some more analysis and started using some figures from Brisnet to help me analyze the races.
A couple years later I liked Charismatic in the Kentucky Derby, among like 10 other horses, but failed to have the right trifecta boxes since I had little clue what I was doing. I liked him in the Preakness as well, still at good odds since people thought his Derby victory was a fluke, but again failed to have the right trifecta when Badge showed up. But at that point I realized that a pattern was emerging.
Eventually I figured this stuff out, although hard-headed about it and unwilling to part from numerical analysis from numbers that I didn't even know how were calculated. I found out it didn't really take a any magic numbers or even much analysis for a basic wagering strategy.
With few exceptions, the Preakness is one of the easiest races to bet. Take the top (4-5) horses from the Kentucky Derby that run at Pimlico two weeks later, and undoubtedly 2 of them will finish in the top 4, in fact, usually the top two horses from the Derby will finish 1-2 in the Preakness. It's really that simple.
After that you do have to put in some analysis to figure out which "outsiders" will infiltrate the trifecta, or possibly even win the Preakness, along with the Kentucky Derby contingent. There are various tools to use to accomplish this but I normally use one I invented.
Unsatisfied with numbers from various other people and organizations with their secret calculations that I did not understand, I decided to make algorithms to create my own numbers and put them into what I call the Grid.
Last year, the Grid gave me Preakness winner Shackleford at 13-1 as the top Speed and Power horse. It was an obvious key horse for me and automatic win bet at those kind of odds. Plus, he was a top four Derby finisher. Apparently people forgot he finished 4th not 14th in the Derby, which was very respectable for a frontrunner.
Combine him with Derby winner and obvious favorite Animal Kingdom at 2nd, and take Astrology as an improving horse with 4th best Early Pace according to the Grid in 3rd place, and you have a very easy trifecta payout. Add Dialed In, the best Late Pace horse coming off a disappointing but respectable 8th place Derby finish, and you have a very easy superfecta.
This is what I call the anatomy of a perfect Preakness exotic bet. You take any of the top 4 Derby finishers that are running at Pimlico, and key them and 1 and 2, get the "outsider" that didn't run in the Derby at good odds, and add another strong contender, usually from the Derby, such as a good late runner for 4th.
You would be surprised how many times the Preakness plays out this way. Often the same horse will win the Preakness that won the Derby, which has happened less in the last few years but they still often finish in the money. And in fact the top two in the Derby often run 1-2 at the Preakness.
So using the top Derby horses is obvious but where will you find the "outsiders" that will undoubtedly take up a spot or two in the superfecta? Well that is tough to come up with by yourself. Normally you will need more of an advanced handicapping tool for that, which is why I use the Grid. I can tell you that the outsider is almost always at odds from 12-1 to 15-1 so that narrows it down.
The year before last the Grid of course gave me the Preakness winner, but only at 2-1 and not much value there, obviously. But also it gave me 11 of 13 winners that day including some nice long shots that provided good exotic payouts.
Of course, since I wrote this, it could just happen that the top Derby horses will finish 1-4 in the Preakness, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens. Especially since of my top 6 Derby winning contenders, out of 20, 4 of them finished 1-4 in the Derby.
So now you know the basic strategy now for betting the Preakness. You just need to find the right long shot or two to add to your obvious Derby contenders for some nice exotic payouts. If I were you, I'd use the Grid to get them, but that's just because it always comes through for me in these situations.

Kentucky Derby (& Kentucky Oaks) Discussion

One Of The Gimmicks I Use And Have For Years

A while back, I mentioned that recording results at most tracks on the same day of week for a month can help you get a better feel of what you can expect. This, in turn, can help you be more prepared and even have more confidence when a week approaches that you are waiting to capitalize on, whether that be betting the favorites or finding something that offers value that will eventually release some of the stress and nervousness that most experience just prior to placing their bets. While I usually do not or can not use this angle on short meets like Saratoga, Keeneland, or Del Mar, I find it very helpful on the tracks with longer meets. However, this year, I have tracked the results for every Saturday on the Saratoga meet thus far, just to see if the angle works on this track like the others and the results is very telling, at least to me. But I will let others make that decision for themshelves.
Through five weekends, there have been 45 races contested on Saturdays. Favorites have won 17 of 45 races for a strike rate of 38%. 2nd choices have won 11 of 45 races for a strike rate of 24%. 3rd choices have won 8 of 45 races for a strike rate of 18%. 4th choices or longer have won 9 of 45 for a strike rate of 20%. Total 45 of 45 races = 100%.
First Saturday, July 13th--- Favorite won 3 of 11 races for a strike rate of 27%, returning $15.50 to win and $22.50 to place, including the ones that did not win but ran 2nd. 2nd choices won 5 of 11 races for a strike rate of 45%, returning a total of $36.10 for a $2 win bet of each, and $27.10 total on place betting the favorite, including ones that did not win but ran 2nd., One 4th choice, one 5th choice, and one 7th choice won 3 of 11 races for a strike rate of 27%. No third choice won a race this Saturday. There were four $1 exacta boxes with the top two choices combined for a strike rate of 36%, with all second choices finishing on top of the favorite in each, resulting in a total return of $37.70. There were three .50 trifecta boxes involving the top three choices(all 3 with the 2nd choice, favorite and third choice in that order) for a strike rate of 27%, resulting in a total return of $56.52.
Betting the minimum allowed throughout this day the result were as followed; Winning Favorites(3) returned 15.50 and 22.50 to place(6) for a total of $38 on $44 risked for a loss of $6. 2nd choices winners(5) returned $36.10 and $27.50 to place(6) for a total of $63.60 on $44 risked for a net profit of $19.60. As mentioned above the exactas returned $37.70 on $22 total risked for a net profit of $15.70 and trifecta, as also mentioned above, returned $56.52 on $33 risked for a net profit of $23.52. Total risked betting the minimum on each wager(with a realistic shot at cashing) was $143 and total returned was $195.82. Total profit was $52.82 or a ROI of 31%. All prices were taken off equibase results charts.
1st Race: 2nd choice @ 1.90-1 won, favorite finished 2nd @ 1.30-1, 4th choice finished 3rd @ 6.70-1.
2nd Race: 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, favorite @ 2.35-1, 5th choice @ 6.40-1.
3rd Race: Favorite @ 1.40-1, 4th choice @ 4.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.35-1. Five horse field.
4th Race: Favorite @ 1.45-1, 7th choice(of 8) @ 19.10-1, 5th choice @ 9.70-1.
5th Race: Favorite @ 1.90-1, 3rd choice @ 4.80-1, 4th choice @ 5.40-1.
6th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.95-1, 3rd choice @ 5.30-1, favorite @ 2.35-1.
7th Race: 7th choice(of 9) @ 10.80-1, 2nd choice @ 3.35-1, favorite @ 2.20-1.
8th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.70-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.85-1.
9th race: 2nd choice @ 1.90-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 3rd choice @ 2.90-1.
10th Race: 5th choice @ 12.60-1, 6th choice @ 13.30-1, favorite @ .85-1.
11th Race: 4th choice @ 5.30-1, 7th choice @ 12.30-1, 3rd choice @ 4.70-1.
On this Saturday, favorites ran in the money(1,2,3) in 10 of 11 races(3-4-3) or 90%. While that can be useful in exotic bets, you will need more to make your ROI on WP look decent. 2nd choices ran in the money 6 of 11 races(5-1-0) or 55%. Again reasonable but more is needed, at least for me. Third choices ran in the money a total of 6 of 11 races(0-2-4). An outsider(4th choice or longer) ran in the money 11 times(3-4-4) or 33% but only 8 of 11 different races or 73%, combining for 2 exactas, 2 trifectas with the heavy favorite 3rd in one and the third choice finishing third in the other. and a 7th choice on top of the second choice in second and favorite in third on another exacta/tri payoff.
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2nd Saturday, July 20th--- Canceled due to heat wave and not included in results which would make this even more telling.
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3rd Saturday, July 27----- Favorites won 3 of 12 races for a winning rate of 25%, returning $15.50 to win and $24.50 to place(7 total) for a total return of $40 on $48 risked, a loss of $8. 2nd choices won 2 of 12 races for a strike rate of 17%, returning $20.40 to win and 28.20 to place(5) on $48 risked, a profit of .60. Four $1 exacta boxes combining the two favorites for a strike rate of 33% and returned S44.70 on $24 risked, returning a profit of $20.70. Two .50 trifecta boxes came thru with the three top choices, for a strike rate of 17%, returning a total of $37.65 on $36 risked , for a net profit of $1.65. Betting each wager resulted in a total of $156 risked and a return of $168.95, a profit of $12.95.
On this weekend, favorites ran in the money 9 of 12 races(3-4-2) or 75%. 2nd choices finished 1,2,3, in 8 of 12 races(2-5-1) or 67%. Third choices finished in the money 6 of 12 races(3-0-3) or 50%. Outsiders finished in the money 10 of 12 different races or 83%,and a total of 13 placings(4-4-5) out of 36 possibilities or 36%.
1st Race: Favorite @ 2.05-1, 2nd choice @ 3.45-1, 10th choice @ 37.75-1.
2nd Race: 3rd Choice @ 3.30-1, favorite @ 2.70-1, 4th choice @ 5.10-1.
3rd Race: 4th choice @ 6.60-1, favorite @ 2.60-1, 5th choice @ 7.50-1.
4th Race: Favorite @ .70-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, 3rd choice @ 5.40-1.
5th Race: 2nd choice @ 3.10-1, favorite @ 3.00-1, 3rd choice @ 3.25-1.
6th Race: 8th choice @ 22.70-1. 4th choice @ 5.80-1, 2nd choice @ 3.75-1.
7th Race: 2nd choice @ 5.10-1, 8th choice @ 13.50-1, favorite @ 2.40-1.
8th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.20-1, 4th choice @ 5.90-1, 6th choice @ 10.00-1.
9th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.80-1, 6th choice @ 29.75(longest shot), favorite @ .50-1.
10th Race: 6th choice @ 13.60-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.80-1.
11th Race: 4th choice @ 4.60-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 2nd choice @ 2.70-1.
12th Race: favorite @ 2-1, 2nd choice @ 3.15-1, 9th choice @ 51.25-1.
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4th Saturday, August 3----- Favorites won 5 of 11 races or 45%, returning $30.90 to win and 21.30 to place(6) for a return of $52.20 on the risk of $44 for a profit of $8.20. 2nd choices won 2 races or 18%, returning 19.40 to win and 14.70 to place(3) for a return of 34.10, a loss of $9.90 on $44 risked. There were no exactas combining the two favorites that paid off and only one .50 trifecta with the first three choices boxed that returned $10.60 on a total $55 risked, thereby resulting in losses of $44.40 on the two exotic wagers. Total return of $97.90 on $143 risked would have resulted in a loss of $45.10, basically wiping out all your winnings for the first month of Saratoga's meet.
On this Saturday, favorites ran in the money 8 of 11 races(5-1-2) or 73% and even though most that ran well won, the net ROI was below acceptable because their win % is much higher than the long term average. Second choices ran in the money 5 of 11 races(2-1-2) or 46% resulting in no exactas and only one trifecta box, which is extremely rare. 3rd choices ran in the money 5 of 11 races(2-3-0) or 46%. But all was bet heavier than a third choice normally can be expected. Outsiders hit the board 14 times out of 33 possibilities(42%) but finished on top 2 of 11 or 18%, so bet even those two right resulted in a net loss. This was a weekend that betting superfectas really paid off, but extremely difficult to find the winning combinations, that is the ones that paid well.
1st Race: Favorite @ 2.40-1, 6th choice @ 9.90-1, 4th choice @ 8.30-1.
2nd Race: Co-2nd choice @ 4.20-1, 6th choice @ 12.90-1, 4th choice @ 7.50-1.
3rd Race: 2nd choice @ 3.50-1, 6th choice @ 17.80-1, 10th choice(longest) @ 25.50-1.
4th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.60-1, 5th choice @ 8.60-1, 6th choice @ 8.70-1.
5th Race: 4th choice @ 5.50-1, 2nd choice @ 2.20-1, favorite @ 1.75-1.
6th Race: 5th choice @ 10.70-1, favorite @ 1-1, 8th choice @ 26.50-1.
7th Race: Favorite @ 1.95-1, 3rd choice @ 3.60-1, 4th choice @ 5.40-1.
8th Race: 3rd choice @ 3.25-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, favorite @ 2.35-1.
9th Race: favorite @ .85-1, 4th choice @ 8.50-1, 2nd choice @ 4.60-1.
10th Race: favorite @ 2.20-1, 3rd choice @ 2.75-1, 2nd choice @ 2.60-1.
11th Race: favorite @ 3.05-1, 3rd choice @ 5.00-1, 5th choice @ 8-1.
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Saturday, August 10------ Now we have cycled and begin the second and last month of Saratoga meet this year. Favorites won 6 of 11 races or 55% and returned $33.20 to win and $24.30 to place(7), resulting in a return of $57.50 on $44 risked and a net profit of $13.50. Second choice won 2 of 11 or 18% and returned 13.10 for the win and 19.10 for the place(5) for a net return of $32.20 and a loss of $11.80 on the $44 risked. There were 3 exactas or 27% with the first two choices that returned $25.40, for a net profit of $3.40. There were also 3 trifectas involving the top three choices or 27% that returned $55.76 on the risk of $33 for a net profit of $22.76.
On this Saturday, favorites finished in the money 8 of 11 races(6-1-1) or 73%. Second choices finished in the money 6 of 11 races(2-3-1) or 55%. Third choice finished in the money 6 of 11 races(3-0-3) or 55 %. Outsiders(4th choice or higher) hit the board 13 out of 33 possibilities or 39% but did not finish on top in any race of the 11.
1st Race: 2nd choice @ 2.50-1, favorite @ 1.65-1, 3rd choice @ 4.10-1.
2nd Race: favorite @ 3.30-1, 5th choice @ 5.40-1, 6th choice @ 7,70-1.
3rd race: favorite @ 1.25-1, 2nd choice @ 2.50-1, 3rd choice @ 4.30-1.
4th Race: favorite @ 2.30-1, 7th choice @ 18.40-1, 3rd choice @ 4.60-1.
5th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.05-1, 7th choice @ 22.80-1, 5th choice @ 11.60-1.
6th race: 3rd choice @ 2.95-1, 5th choice @ 11.80-1, 4th choice @ 9.20-1.
7th Race: favorite @ .60-1, co-4th choice @ 7.50-1, 6th choice @ 10.70.
8th Race: favorite @ 1.55-1, 2nd choice @ 2.35-1, 5th choice @ 8.20-1.
9th Race: 3rd choice @ 5-1, 2nd choice @ 2.95-1, favorite @ 1.85-1.
10th Race: favorite @ 1.60-1, 7th choice @ 19.10-1, 4th choice @ 4.30-1.
11th Race: 3rd choice @ 4.90-1, 5th choice @ 6.40-1, 2nd choice @ 4.80-1.
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Now, I can not tell you if this information will help you. But I can tell you it helps me immensely at the tracks I have used it on. But I know exactly what help I am looking for before charting. Not only does it point me to the weeks that I probably can find value, it also points me to weeks where value will be limited and that is what helps me the most. The rest is on me to find the value and using this information gives me a ideal of who to use with them. The last time I charted a track, I went on an exacta and trifecta hitting streak by matching up week of month to the day I charted, on a four week interval. The only problem I have had using this information is when there is a five week in a given month, which normally occurs every third month. Then I have to make a slight adjustment or risk getting thrown off my pattern. It works for me and has for years, when I take time out and do the research. This is only one of several gimmicks that I use that gives me an added edge over the unprepared bettor, which is usually all I need.

Saratoga Selections For 7-27-2019

I have not done much good this year at Saratoga. The days I have chosen to bet this track this year has been the days I should have looked elsewhere, as some horses I liked have came thru at tracks I normally try to concentrate at least partially on. However, this weekend is mostly favorite day at most tracks, so while I wait for the tracks to cycle back around to the weeks I want to bet them, I will try to break out of my funk at Saratoga by betting a little less and spreading a little more. I have never try what I am about to try at any track in more than 40 years of betting, so you may want to proceed with caution. However, I am not one to keep trying the same old thing over and over when it is not working at a particular track. As I was researching my past bets at Saratoga this week, I saw a glaring weakness that can be rectify and made to work for me. While I am satisfied with my exacta box and WP bets, I could not find even one wager where I cash a trifecta and/or superfecta that paid near a grand or more, a type of wager that is successful for me at most other tracks.

Race 1: This race looks like it will come down to four horses for the win to me.
3)Teachable Moment(5-2) Brown trains and the one to beat.
10)South West Bay(9-2) Ward trains. Sire was sprint champion in England in 2013 & 2014 and South West Bay is a member of his first crop. Broodmare sire, Sixties Icon is a G1 winner and from the first crop of Galileo.
11)I'm Looking Up(8-1) Dallas Stewart trains and he is a son of the speedy Speightstown. 2nd place finisher(favorite in this race) of his last was my 45-1 special first time starter that also ran second in his first start on Clark H. day at CD and I'm Looking Up simply could not run down any of the three who broke out in front of him in his last.
5)Knockout Punch(10-1) Hough trains and while his works are ok, he will need to run faster in this race to beat some of these.
I will box these four on a dime super, then using a key wager, will add 2 more underneath and spread a little for a save and a bomb payoff. I will use 2)Azzedine(30-1) and 7)Mo Fun(8-1) in the 3rd and 4th spots.
My Bets: $5 Ex Box 10-11(Total $10), $1 Tri Box 3-10-11(Total $6), .50 Tri Key 3-10-11 with 3-10-11 with 2-3-10-11($6 Total), .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11(Total $2.40), .10 Super Key 3-10-11 with 3-10-11 with 2-3-5-7-10-11 with 2-3-5-7-10-11(Total $7.20), .50 Super Key 11 with 3-5-10 with 2-3-5-10 with 2-3-5-10(Total $9). Total Risk This Race($40.60).
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2nd Race: I only like two horses in here and will only bet an exacta box.
5)Bossy Bride(8-1) is the one I like to win but I don't like her enough to risk WP money on.
3)Doll Collection(3-1) is the reason I will not risk WP money on my top choice, but I have risk money on her, to little avail. She is bred to run though and it is only a matter of time before she graduates against this type.
My Bets: $5 Ex Box 3-5. Total Risk($10).
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3rd Race: Another race that looks up for grabs, but also the type of race that usually offer serious money if you can pick it correctly. I think the win will come down to two horses, both decent odds but underneath will be the tricky part.
7)Shekky Shebaz(15-1) Adam Rice, the nephew of Linda Rice, trains. He has given the call to Jose Ortiz, who normally rides for Linda when she has a live horse. Third start this year but moves from the AWT at Presque Isle Down to the grass off two bullet works.
3)Soul P Say(12-1) was claimed out of his last and tries the grass for the first time after 23 starts on dirt. What is amazing about that is his sire, Soldat, a son of War Front, broke his maiden in the G3 With Anticipation S on grass, then ran 2nd in both the G2 Pilgrim S after a troubled trip & G2 BC Juvenile Turf(first running), looking like the winner in deep stretch before Pluck blew by him late. This is where bloodlines helps me the most, by identifying horse that spends a large part of their career at the wrong distance or the wrong surface. He qualifies on both.
10)Sir Ballantine(12-1) is another I will use underneath. While he has tried grass on three occasions with a third the best effort, they came at distances of 1 1/16 miles twice and 1 5/16 mile once but he ran an even race in all three. His only three wins against winners came at 7 furlongs and 1 mile twice, though he has spent most of his career running longer because of his late running style. But his pedigree suggests he will do much better at a mile or less.
2)Frisky Magician(7-2) is another who will be trying late and could actually win this. Trainer Jason Servis drops him into a spot where he has a chance of winning on paper but is willing to lose him via the claiming box, an indication he may have lost a step or two. Otherwise, why risk losing a horse that was just reclaimed by the previous owner two starts back?
5)Mission Command(8-1) is the last one I will include underneath. He has won on grass twice and trainers has used the dirt each of the last two years to get him in top shape. His best race last year came in his fourth start of the year on grass when second, the race he was claimed out of by current owners, but he had won his last start in an off the turf allowance race in 2017, cycled out of form and returned to his best form in that effort. Then he had three previous starts on dirt to begin this year before the break and was making his first grass start of the year in his last, also his fourth start this year.
My Bets: $5 WP 7($10), $5 Ex Box 3-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-3-7($6), .50 Tri Key 3-7 with 2-3-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10($9), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10(2.40), .10 Super Key 3-7 with 2-3-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10($3.60). Total Risk($41).
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Race 4: I will bet this race the way I normally bet because maiden special weights races is where I have my most success at Saratoga. There are several in here that was purchased for a lot of money at auctions.
5)Kowalski(4-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start and after breaking poorly, he made a good run to get into contention before flatting out against a runaway winner who had a perfect trip. Two good works and with a better break, should make him the one to beat.
9)Sonneman(8-1) is my choice for second. He is a first time starter with some above average works.
1)Shoplifted and 1A)Soviet(8-5) are coupled and both are first time starters.
2)No Bad Days(20-1) is my choice for fourth.
My Bets: $5 WP 5($10), $5 Ex Box 5-9($10), Tri Box 1-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-5-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 5 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9($3). Total Risk $31.40.
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5th Race: I will use six horses that I believe has a shot.
10) Dream Friend(5-1), 4)Combatant(8-1), 5)Prioritize(10-1), 1)C.C. Rider(12-1), 9)Keep Quiet(6-1), 8)Westerland(15-1).
My Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-10($6), .10 Super Box 1-4-5-10($2.40), .10 Super Key 4-10 with 4-5-10 with 1-4-5-8-9-10 with 1-4-5-8-9-10($4.80), .50 Super Key 4-10 with 4-5-10 with 1-4-5-10 with 1-4-5-10($4). Total Risk $27.20.
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6th Race: I will use 5 horses in here.
3)Tequila Sunday(30-1), 5)Flashpackinbarbie(3-1), 12)Collegeville Girl(12-1), 1)Makin' Out(6-1), 9)More Mischief(9-2).
My Bets: $10 WP 3($20), $5 Ex Box 3-12($10), $1 Tri Box 3-5-12($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-12($2.40), .10 Super 3-5-12 with 3-5-12 with 1-3-5-9-12 with 1-3-5-9-12($3.60). Total Risk $42.00
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7th Race: Another 6 horses I will center my risk around.
7)Hard Sting(12-1), 4)Proven Strategies(10-1), 6)Are You Kitten Me(6-1), 9)Fame To Famous(20-1), 5) Economic Policy(5-2), 2)Blanket Of Roses(6-1), And if the 11)Eagerly(7-2) draws in, I will drop one of the latter two and replaced with this one.
My Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 4-6-7($6), .50 Tri Key 6-7 with 4-6-7-9 with 4-6-7-9($6), .10 Super Box 4-6-7-9($2.40), .10 Super Key 6-7 with 4-6-7 with 4-5-6-7-9 with 2-4-5-6-7-9($3.60). Total Risk $48.
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8th Race: Normal Bets.
3)Puttheglassdown(12-1), 7)Frosted Grace(10-1), 8) Dark N Cloudy(10-1), 9)Overdeliver(3-1).
$5 WP 3($10), $5 Ex Box 3-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-7-8($6), .10 Super Box 3-7-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9($6). Total Risk $34.40.
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9th Race: Normal Bets.
6)Diamond Oops(12-1), 3)Imperial Hint(3-1), 4)Firenze Fire(9-2), 7)Do Share(15-1).
$5 WP 6($10), $5 Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-6($6), .10 Super Box 3-4-6-7($2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 4-6 with 4-6-7 with 4-6-7($4) Total Risk $32.40.
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10th Race: Will use 5 horses in this race.
3) Ya Primo(8-1), 10) Channel Cat((12-1), 1)Arklow(9-2), 6)Highland Sky(20-1), 2) Sadler's Joy(6-1).
$10 WP 3($20), $5 Ex Box 3-10($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-10($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-6-10($2.40), .50 Super Key 3 with 1-10 with 1-2-6-10 with 1-2-6-10($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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11th Race: Abbreviated Normal Bets.
4)Global Campaign(2-1), 3)Milos(15-1), 5)Tacitus(7-5), 1)Laughing Fox(15-1).
$5 Ex Box 3-4($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-5($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-5($2.40). Total Risk $18.40.
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12th Race: I will use 5 horses.
9)No Mo Promises(15-1), 10) Givethemanacigar(20-1), 8)Coach Villa(30-1), 5)Surge Pricing(2-1), 4)My Macho(5-1).
$5 WP 9($10), $5 Ex Box 9-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-9-10($6), .10 Super Box 4-5-9-10($2.40), .10 Super Key 9-10 with 4-9-10 with 4-5-8-9-10 with 4-5-8-9-10($2.40). Total Risk $30.80.
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These will be my risks for this weekend. By my estimates, I will risk $400.40 and this at least gives me a variety of bets which I can recoup the initial investment and make a grand or so, if the horses I like finally decides to wake up and gives an honest effort. If they don't, I will turn the page and give another effort next week, like I have always done. I go through slumps every year and always have, but the difference now and 20 years ago is I now recognize my slumps and have the patience to wait for the signals that my slump is over. But I would not know for sure unless I take minor chances and bet like I normally bet.

AITA for not wanting to split our winnings with my brother?

Getting Ready for the Haskell!

My Choices For Belmont Park, Saturday July 6(Belmont Oaks & Derby Day)

These are my choices at the moment for races this weekend. However, I plan to start watching the tote board again, a tactic I had a lot of success with years ago, before I installed my current plan of betting the horses. While tote board watching often gives you clues in which horse is most likely to win if you learn which one is receiving bets from "smart money" bettors, who usually are betting with some inside information that most of the public knows nothing and/or heard about. While most of my bets will stay the same, there will be a few occasions I decide to switch onto a more well regarded horse to try to hit exactas and trifectas more often. However, since this is usually just before post on most occasions, I will not be able to change my thoughts on any post in time, so I would encourage others to learn more about the real serious bettors. The only reason I do not like using this system is it tends to overlook horses that I think has a real shot at pulling an upset but that is mostly because they did not receive any inside information on these types.
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I will take a pass on races 1 and 3. There does not seem to be enough value in these races to take a risk on.
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Race 2 Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 3 YO & Up Restricted To NY Breds---Purse $41,000--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:
Another fairly weak field, it offers value that will pay decently if you can beat the morning line favorite, who is not a lock against anyone, and a sucker type horse, who has gotten close several times, but has yet to complete the job. So my choices will be:
1)Keep The Light On(20-1)--- He has made one start in his career on a good turf course at 6 furlongs and was last for most of the way before picking up a few tired and inexperienced horses in the stretch. But his bloodlines suggest he will be better at middle distances on grass and he gets that opportunity in here. His sire, Willcox Inn, was a multiple G1 Stakes placed runner who finished just behind Wise Dan twice in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile while 2nd one year and third the next year. This will be his only crop to race as he was fatally injured in a paddock injury while wrapping up his only season at stud.
11) Millies Party Boy(6-1) is my choice for second. He finished third in his first career start and then tolled in maiden special races for seven more starts, always offering a late run but left with too much to do. Then dropped into maiden claiming and after a couple of decent runs in this class, he looked ready to graduate late last year, finishing second by a neck and then third, beaten two lengths. Then he was entered in two dirt races to finish up the year and he responded with two of the worst races of his career. With one start this year in an open bred maiden special weight where he returned to his old style and made a solid run to get into contention before flattening out in the stretch in his first start in seven months. Again he signaled he is ready to graduate. But this time he is entered in the right class, restricted to state breds, and on the right surface.
10)Golconda(8-1) is my choice for third. He has made 11 starts with 2 seconds and a third as his best efforts. He beat my second choice in his only on the board finish on grass in five starts on a yielding turf but was beaten by that foe in their next start on a good turf when my second choice just missed graduating. Since those races, they look like they have gone in opposite directions. However, since he is dropping back down into the class he seems to fit best in and his last two works since his last start was his best in his recent past, he could be signaling he is ready to wake up and produce his best run.
5)No More Miracles(6-1) is my choice for fourth. After 5 starts on dirt and performing poorly in each, he was switched to grass sprints and came alive in his last two. But 1 1/16 miles is probably a little farther than what should be his best distance and therefore I will place him here. However, I think he will be closer if the race remains on grass but is less than firm, as I expect him to be near the lead throughout.
Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-11, Tri Box 1-10-11, .10 Super Box 1-5-10-11, Super Key 1 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11.
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Race 4: Allowance ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares---- Purse $66,000 ---- 6 1/2 Furlongs:
8)Bangle Girl(4-1) is my choice to win. She is exiting her maiden win but has faced several highly regarded NY breds in her two worst races, including the one(Newly Minted) who ran by the heavy favorite in here with ease. Her sire, Emcee, is a G1 winning sprinter and her broodmare sire, Hold That Tiger, is a G1 winning middle distance runner but his best known son is Smiling Tiger, a multiple G1 winning sprinter in his own right.
4)Cathy Naz(8-1) is my choice for second. While she should get a pretty good trip behind two dueling front runners, my top choice will probably get to sit the better trip and be gone before she can catch up to that one. While it looks like this is a step up for her, she actually is the only horse in the race to finish in front of open bred multiple winners and older fillies. Actually, the filly that beat her in her last two ran 2nd to Highway Star( at 2-5) late last year in a big state bred stakes. She also looks like she is cycling back into her best form, judging by 4 good works since her last.
6)Mary's Girl(12-1) is my choice for third. She has been racing in multiple winners races, but they have been restricted to 3 YOs and NY breds and this is a step up in class for her. However, she, too, looks like she is peaking into her best form and she has not only the bloodlines but also has developed a late run that should help her. The main question with her is can she handled the rise in class?
1)OK Honey(20-1) is my choice for fourth. At first glance, it looks like she does not have much of a chance to make an impact. While both her sire, Haynesfield, and broodmare sire, Not For Love, both won distance races in their racing careers, both have more foals that are better at sprinting compared to distance racing. And she seems to be following that same route. Her five placing in twelve starts suggests 6 furlongs is a little short for her but a mile is a tad further that she wants, as she has made several moves to get the lead, only to get ran down near the finish. And like several other, she appears to be regaining her best form after four uninspiring tries after winning before an improved race in her last start after stepping into an open bred race. Now she returns to NY bred and gets a distance that should be more to her liking.
Bets: WP 8, Ex Box 4-8, Tri Box 4-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-4-6-8, Super Key 8 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6.
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Race 5: Maiden Special Weight --- 2 Yos --- Purse $80,000 --- 6 Furlongs Turf:
1)Hard Sting(12-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first career start off a series of good works. His sire, Hard Spun, won 7 of 13 lifetime starts but also finished second in the Ky Derby and BC Classic, third in the Preakness and fourth in the Belmont S while banking over $2.6M. Hard Sting's dam, Smart Sting, won 4 of 13 lifetime starts including a couple of Canadian stakes races and banked over $400K while spending her career on the AWT and/or grass. Second dam, Perfect Sting, won 14 of 21 lifetime starts while banking $2.2M, almost all on grass. Another Stonach bred and a horse he kept to run.
6)Montauk Daddy(3-1) is my choice for second. He has made one start, an off the grass race ran on an sloppy track and he closed well to finish second in a good time. While his sire, Daddy Long Legs, is not one of the best foals of turf specialist Scat Daddy, he did win the UAE Derby. He did not hit the board in any of his last 11 starts, including a did not finish in the Ky Derby. Montauk Daddy's broodmare sire, Old Fashioned, won his first four starts before finishing second in both the G2 Rebel S And G2 Arkansas Derby before an injury forced his retirement. However, Montauk Daddy's dam line is stocked full of serious grass runners.
8)Now Is(20-1) is my choice for third, though I believe he has a good to solid shot at an upset. He has made two lifetime starts, the first on grass where he broke a little slow, then tracked the pace but was no match for the top two. Then he was tried in a stakes race on dirt and was simply overmatched at this point in his career. Now entered back on the surface he will eventually prefer most and another furlong to work with, I expect him to get out front and wing it. While there is other speed signed up, they better have their running shoes on from the get go, because a minor hesitation is all this one will need to wire this field. His sire, Sidney's Candy, was fast from the gate on dirt but appeared even faster on grass.
3)Silver Promise(6-1) is my choice for fourth. He is another well bred sort that is working good for his debut. He looks like the only one fast enough to go with my third and my top choice early and if he breaks a little slow, which is always possible with first time starters, the outcome may be a foregone conclusion. His sire Declaration Of War and his broodmare sire, Tapit, both had some speed but neither was lightning fast from the gate.
Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-6, Ex Key 8 with 1-6, Ex Key 1-6 with 8, Tri Box 1-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-8, Super Key 1 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8.
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Race 6: Dwyer S(G3) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $250,000 --- 1 Mile:
4)Whiskey Echo(20-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start this year and won in a good time. He has since worked out four times, with three bullets followed by an maintenance breeze. His sire, Tiznow, is one everyone should know about but the dam line is probably a mystery to most. While Whiskey Echo's dam was unraced, his 2nd dam, Aishah, is a G2 winning full sister to Althea, Champion 2 YO Filly Of 1983 who shattered the Arkansas Derby stakes record in 1984 while equaling Oaklawn Park's track record for 1 1/8 mile. This horse was born to run and so far he has!
3)Code Of Honor(4-5) is my choice to finish second and will be heavily bet. While he has raced against the best competition thus far, he has beaten very little in both his wins and that makes him vulnerable in this spot.
6)Majid(6-1) is my choice for third. He will try to take this field from gate to wire as he has done in each of his last three starts, but better horses are signed up for this test that any of those races. While I believe he will crumble due to the early pressure, he should hang around for a piece in such a short field.
2)Rowayton(3-1) is my choice for fourth. He is one who will apply early pressure on my third choice but he has yet to prove he can put away other speed and keep going up to a mile. His broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, always gives me reservations about using any of his foals in exactas and trifectas when they are going longer than 7 furlongs with other front runners present as most of them are prong to stopping badly when faced with heavy pressure.
Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 3-4-6, .10 Super Box 2-3-4-6, Super Key 4 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6.
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7th Race: Belmont Oaks(G1) --- 3 YO Fillies --- Purse $750,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
6)Just Wonderful(6-1) is my choice to win. She has made three starts this year, all at 1 mile and she showed little in each. However, the filly who won the first 2 and finished second in the last one(Hermosa) is Europe's leading 3 YO filly miler at this point and she also beat Just Wonderful in her only G1 test in Europe last year. But Just Wonderful will do better as the distances gets longer. Her dam, Wading's 3/4 sister, Athena, shipped over here last year to win this race for her only G1 score to date. Just Wonderful's third dam, Urban Sea, is dam of Galileo and Sea The Stars, both champions and top sires in Europe.
1)Olendon(9-2) is my choice for second. She has made three starts this year and has improved in each, including her first G1 placing in her last. While that race is an important European test, it pales in comparison to the three my top choice competed in this year. She has a good blend of speed and distance in both the sire and dam lines and should make her presence known late.
9)Cambier Parc(4-1) is my choice for third. She has won three of her four starts this year but now gets the acid test. Her sire, Medaglia D'Oro and her broodmare sire, Point Given, are both multiple G1 winners on dirt but her dam,Sealy Hill, is multiple G1 placed on grass and won the Woodbine Oaks on the AWT.
3)Coral Beach(15-1) is my choice for fourth. She, too, has made three starts this year, the first two in the French and Ireland 1,000 Guineas, a race for top European 3 YO fillies milers and then the Sandringham S where she produce her best run this year against easier. But she probably still needed that start to reach her best shape and now should be ready to get it her best effort. While her sire, Zoffany, was a top sprintemiler during his racing career, her broodmare sire, Tiger Hill, completed against the best distance horses in Europe. She also has some more distance help in her dam line as third dam is a daughter of Surumu, a product of Germany's best distance sire line for more than 150 years.
Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-6-9, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-9, Super Key 6 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9.
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8th Race: John A Nerud S(G2) --- 3 YO & Up --- Purse $300,000 --- 7 Furlongs:
9) Promises Fulfilled(2-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with one third his best effort. But in his last, chart says he stumbled at the start, but all I saw was he was a little sluggish to get in gear. However, the jockey tried to get him to rate after he saw he could not get the lead as the horse prefers and he flatten out in the stretch. But it was the type of race he needed to get him to his peak form. His 2-1 M/L odds is very generous, so I would not expect him to get off at those odds.
4)Nicodemus(6-1) is my choice for second. He has made 5 starts this year, missing the board in every other start while winning twice. It is only a matter of time before he starts putting back to back races together. While his sire, Candy Ride is known for foals with high speed, he probably gets his closing ability from his dam, Leah's Secret, who won several G2 stakes during her racing career, all from off the pace. However, her sire, Tiger Ridge is the only horse you will ever see that has both Secretariat's top two producing daughters as dam and grand dam. His sire is Storm Cat, a son of Terlingua, while his dam is Weekend Surprise.
2)New York Central(8-1) is my choice to finish third. Early in his career, he was a need the lead type that threw clunkers when someone outbroke him. But since he has been shorten back up to sprints, he has shown a willingness to rate, something he will need to hit the board in this spot.
1)Majestic Dunhill(15-1) is my choice for fourth. he has four starts this year and appears to be regaining his best form. While he normally comes for way back with a late rush in the stretch, you can expect him to be picking off horses late and could possibly get involved in the exacta, though I think winning is unlikely, mostly due to my top choice.
Bets: No WP, Ex Box 4-9, Tri Box 2-4-9, Tri Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4, Super Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4.
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Race 9: Belmont Derby(G1) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $1,000,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
9)Cape Of Good Hope(10-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with 1 win in a non graded stakes, but it was a prep for the Epsom Derby. However, O'Brien is usually loaded with three years old colts and he decided to send this one to contest the G1 Prix Du Jockey Club and he just missed becoming a G1 placed in that effort. I'm throwing his last out as maybe he did not like the give in the turf course that day. He has two graded stakes winning full brothers, Highland Reel, who most probably heard of as he made three trips to the U.S, winning the G1 Secretariat, then returning the next year to win the G1 BC Turf and then the nest year to finish third in the BC Turf and Idaho, third in the Epsom Derby and 2nd in the Irish Derby, among several other top races.
5)Plus Que Parfait(20-1) is my choice for second. He has one win in four starts this year but now is switching to the surface he was originally bred for. While he made his first lifetime start on grass at a mile and finished third, he was then switched to dirt where he was inconsistent. Now a return to his best surface and a little more distance, he should be around at the end.
4)English Bee(30-1) is my choice for third. He won his last start which was his first stakes win and now gets the acid test to prove he belongs with the top grass runners. He has the perfect pattern for young horses who are poised to run their career best race. And while this race is stocked with horses who may like the 1 1/4 mile distance, none is even close to the bloodlines and proven distance loving abilities of both his sire, English Channel and his broodmare sire, Kitten's Joy. Both English Channel and Kitten's Joy was beaten by Better Talk Now in separate BC Turfs but English Channel returned in 2007 and turned the BC Turf in a laughter, beating Better Talk Now and Europe's best by 7 lengths.
3)Seismic Wave(5-1) is my choice for fourth. He has hit the board in 5 of 6 lifetime starts and he just missed hitting the board in his only non placing as he was forced to go wide and circled the field to miss winning by 1 1/2 lengths. Now the added distance will only help him. While the talk has always been about Northern Dancer as a sire, it is his dam line that made him the sire he turned out to be and she, Natalma, appears as the sixth dam of Seismic Wave, meaning he traces tail female back into Almahmoud and later into Fair Play's grandson and Mother Goose, a filly who has a race named in her honor.
Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 5-9, Tri Box 4-5-9, .10 Super Box 3-4-5-9, Super Key 9 With 3-4-5 with 3-4-5 With 3-4-5.
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Race 10: Suburban S(G2) --- 3 Yo & Up--- Purse $700,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile:
3) Rocketry(8-1) is my choice to win. He tried in vain to catch the only speed who set a snail pace in their last and just manage to hold off his late run. With more speed signed on, I look for him to blow by the front runners in here.
11) Pavel(8-1) is my choice for 2nd. He is following basically the same pattern as he followed last year. Last year, he started with a fourth in the San Pasqual, followed by a fourth in the Dubai World Cup and a fourth in the Gold Cup at SA before winning the G1 Stephen Foster H. This year, after a fourth in both the San Pasqual & Dubai World Cup, he finished sixth in the Metropolitan Mile. Now he enters the G2 Suburban S off two decent works and his fourth start this year. He also adds blinkers and that signals to me that his trainer wants to keep him just behind the early pace setters.
5) Lone Sailor(8-1) is my choice for third. He cycled back into his best form two starts back, then was sent to California to contest a G1 on a track that works against his style of running but he managed to finished a distant third. Now with two decent works since returning from that effort, I feel he is ready to fire again over several of these he is entered against. Now he adds blinkers which should help him stay a little closer to the pace.
10)Cordmaker(12-1)is my choice for fourth. It looks like his trainer has been taking his time with this one to let him mature and he has slowly improved step by step. Now it is time to see what they have developed. While he is taking a big step up in class, his bloodlines suggests he should handle it and if this was not his first attempt at this class, he would be in my top two picks.
Bets: WP 3, Ex Box 3-11, Tri Box 3-5-11, .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11, Super Key 3 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11.
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Race 11: Maiden Special Weight --- 3 YO & Up ---Purse $80,000 ---- 1 Mile Turf:
9) Windward Sands(3-1) is my choice to win. A member of the last crop of Scat Daddy, she is working like she will win early in her career. Trainer Brown is sneaky good at having his horses ready at first asking, especially on grass.
1)Downstream(12-1) is my choice for second. She has made one start and after setting the pace for six furlongs on a yielding grass course, she did a steady retreat. But the horse pressing her throughout was Newspaperofrecord who drew away at ease and made her race look worse than it actually was.
2) Ledecka(7-2) is my choice for third. She has finished second in both of her starts, so that is the biggest reason to place her here. Also, experience counts in my book and she has ran credible both times while getting a little education in each. But this will be by far her biggest challenge as there looks like several newcomers with real ability to challenge her.
11)Foolish Living(6-1) is my choice for fourth. Another Brown trainee, she, too, is making her first start and has some sneaky good works, much like my top choice. While I think she has some good bloodlines, I prefer the other Brown's trainee bloodlines more.
Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 1-9, Tri Box 1-2-9, .10 Super Box 1-2-9-11, Super Key 9 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11.
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A Few Races I Am Betting At Belmont Park For Thursday June 12th.

I have looked over Thursday races at Belmont Park and came up with three races that I will bet. As I have done for years. I bet one horse to WP in every race I bet, 2 horses in an exacta box, three horses in a trifecta box and now 4 horses in a small super box followed by a super key with the one I usually am betting to WP keyed to the ones I like underneath boxed. So basically, I believe the horse I am betting to win will do just that, but in case he has trouble of any kind, including simply getting outrun, I also bet him to place. I do not bet any horse to show at any time and that includes my top choice. But I will also box my exacta, tri and super to leverage against my top choice not quite getting on top but runs good enough to key one of my exotic bets. I can not say this will work for anybody else, but this is the money management system that change my luck at betting the horses and also help me take my life to another level that would have not been possible. Under my old way of handicapping, when I hit a nice paying race, I would often give it back in a matter of weeks and saw my self constantly starting over with my own money. Under the current system that I use, when I hit a nice paying race, it often takes up to six months to lose it back, but by then I have hit another dozen or so races, so I am usually playing with winnings and not my own money that I use to pay every day expenses with. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that what everyone is hoping for?

2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YO & Up Fillies--- Restricted To NY Breds--- Purse $62,000--- 1 Mile Turf:

10) Tax Me Naught(30-1) starts from the 11 post if all starts, including those that are entered for the main track only. Realistic, she should start from the 9th post if the race stays on grass. She finished distanced third in her debut behind runaway winning daughter of Bustin Stones, who also finished in fairly good time for Finger Lakes. In her 2nd start at Finger Lakes, she ran second, beaten 1/2 length to the heavy favorite, where she tried in vain to chase down in 5 furlongs, with a good finishing time of 59 4/5 for that track. She has a good work since that effort and ships to Belmont where is she entered on the grass, which her bloodlines suggests she is better bred for. Her sire, Cosmonaut, a multiple G3 stakes winning son of Lemon Drop Kid on grass who ran several solid races against G1 competition, but was not quite good enough to beat them. Her broodmare sire, Freud, is a full brother to Giant's Causeway and like his brother, his foals are known for their front running speed on both grass and dirt. Her trainer, Linda Dixon has spent the last 30 years chasing after everyone's elusive dream and may have luck into a good horse to train.

7)Running On Entry(8-1) is my choice for 2nd. He has started once and ran 2nd while closing with a rush to just miss at 7 furlongs on grass. With four works since his first start, all indicating he came out of that start non the worse for wear and the fact he stretches to a mile, makes him the one to beat. His trainer, James Toner, is a 12 % lifetime trainer whose best runners are known for their grass abilities as most of his graded stakes wins has been on grass. His sire, Point Of Entry was a multiple G1 stakes winner who won 6 of 8 of his graded stakes starts on that surface with both defeats coming in the G1 BC Turf when 2nd & 4th in back to back years.

11) Corey Scores(6-1) starts just outside my top choice and is trained by Chad Brown. He has ran third twice in three starts, one an off the turf effort and one on the grass effort. His first start this year, also on the grass, saw him have trouble at the start and then went wide in his only unplaced effort in the same race as my 2nd choice. However, he, too, has four works since that effort, all good for Brown trainees, suggest he can win with a better trip. His bloodlines suggests a mile may be slightly longer than he wants to go, but Brown knows his grass runners and he believes he can get the job done. Post position is not ideal for him but Brown has proven he can overcome most unfavorable obstacles, especially on grass.

9)Sterling Beauty(10-1) has started 5 times in her career, with 3 thirds in her last 3 starts, the last two her only starts on grass. Her sire Central Banker, is a G2 stakes winning son of Speightstown who also won one non graded sprint on grass, both from slightly off the pace. Her dam, Them There Eyes, won 2 stakes on grass in her career, one a NY Bred and one a listed stakes, while coming from well off the pace, much like this daughter has so far. Sterling Beauty's broodmare sire, Holy Bull, was an all or nothing front runner who won 13 of 16 starts, while finishing unplaced in all three starts when he did not get the lead. Donk, her trainer, also wins at 12% and his graded stakes performers are much better on grass than dirt.

While all three of my underneath picks could run 1,2,3, I will bet that my top choice gets somewhere in the mix, if she does not win this race. There are several others that I did not mention who also would be no surprise, but I have decided to use these four.

Bets: WP 10, Ex Box 7-10, Tri Box 7-10-11, .10 Super Box 7-9-10-11, Super Key 10 with 7-9-11 with 7-9-11 with 7-9-11.

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Race 4: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YO & Up Fillies--- Purse $80,000--- 1 1/16M Turf:

2)Funny Flowers(8-1) is my choice to win. She broke poorly in her first and only start and ran an even race, passing only tiring horses. But she has 4 very good works since and should be much closer to the early pace. He sire is Distorted Humor and broodmare sire is Stormy Atlantic, sire of multiple G1 winner Get Stormy. However, Funny Flowers's female line is one to be alert of if you value bloodlines as much as I do and I will put this here to let you see for your self: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/137259/north-of-eden-28-dies.

5)San Saria(8-1) is my choice to finish 2nd. She has 2 starts and finished unplaced in both. She broke slowly in her first start and did not pick up her feet. In her second start, she broke better but ran an even race while picking up a couple in the stretch to finish just ahead of my top choice. her sire, a son of Galileo & Ouija Board(won BC F & M Turf Twice with one second in that race), won 5 of 8 lifetime starts, including the Epsom & Irish Derbies. San Saria's broodmare sire, Daggers Drawn, won a pair of 2 YOs G2 stakes in England. San Saria also has a pair of good works since her last, signaling she and my top choice may be exiting a key race, which would also include the 1A.

8)Charreada(4-1) is my choice for third. She has made 4 starts in her career, finishing 3rd twice, all last year. She is one of 2 4 YOs entered in this race and is working forward for her first start this year. However, her trainer, McGaughey, has picked an extremely tough spot for her to graduate. Her sire is Kitten's Joy, top grass sire for a number of years and her broodmare sire is Giant's Causeway, a solid sire on both dirt and grass. Charreada's 2nd dam is La Reina, who is another who hails from a blue hen female family.

3)Style Icon(7-2) has started 7 times, running unplaced in her first start, followed by three thirds and then 3 seconds, including two this year while just missing the win in her last two. She has three AWT works at Fair Hill, a tactic usually used by her trainer, to prepare for this start, all not too fast or slow that would eliminate her in this start. Her sire, Artie Schiller, won the G1 BC Mile and her broodmare sire, Trempolino, finished 2nd in The BC Turf in his only U.S. appearance and final start of his career. While Style Icon's dam line is also impressive, it pales in comparison to my top choice. 2nd dam, Fabuleux Jane, is also 2nd dam of Arazi, winner of the G1 BC Juvenile on dirt in a romp and Europe & U.S. Champion 2 YO Colt of 1991.
Bets: WP 2, Ex Box 2-5, Tri Box 2-5-8, .10 Super Box 2-3-5-8, Super Key 2 with 3-5-8 with 3-5-8 with 3-5-8.

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7th Race: Allowance----3 YO & Up Fillies---- Purse $84,000--- 1 Mile Turf:

3)Panther Hit(5-1) will be my choice to win. She has started 3 times with a win and a second. Two starts back, she broke on top and set a steady pace and won while still clear in a good time for maiden fillies at 1 mile on grass. She returned in her next start in the non restricted Honey Fox S at 1 1/16M on grass where she ran an even race after steadying into the first turn on a good turf course, which most struggles to make up any ground on that type of going. In this start, she returns to 1 mile on grass and drops back in with condition allowance foes. While she has two slow works since her last start, they came on dirt and she has never worked very fast on that surface in over 20 lifetime works, indicating she does not like that surface at all. Plenty of front running speed in here but she should be able to handle them. Luis Saez picks up the mount on the only 3 YO in the field.

7)Go Rose(4-1) is the biggest threat to my top choice. She made her U.S. debut in her first start this year in the same conditions as this race, sitting just off the early slow pace and being unable to make up any ground as the pace quicken, but also not giving up in an even effort while finishing 4th. She also has a little back class as she ran 3rd in the G2 German 1000 Guineas last year. Like my top choice, she has worked 5 times since her last, all in times that will usually not catch your eyes, but fast enough to indicate she is moving forward for this test. Irad Ortiz picks up the mount.

5)Dream Passage(7-2) last two wins has came in conditions restricted to NY Bred. However, she has some bloodlines showing that she will be able to rate if the pace gets too hot, which is expected in this test. If she can not settle and make a late run, she will not factor in the outcome of this race.

6) Bath And Tennis(15-1) is sort of interesting in here. She started her career in England and found the graded competition more than she can handled, at that time. Sent to the U.S. late last year, she has a lot of works since arriving, including several that indicates she has some ability. She has made two starts, including a stakes race, both at 5 furlongs on grass and she did not run a lick in either. However, her bloodlines suggests she would probably enjoy a grassy mile most and that is where she has been entered. Her sire, Footstepsinthesand, won his only 3 starts, including 2 stakes, one which included the G1 2000 Guineas in England. Likewise, her broodmare sire, Fasliyev, won all 5 of his starts as a 2 YO In England to earn Europe's Champion 2 YO Colt, but broke a leg while on the shelf waiting for his 3 YO season to begin and was retired. Bath And Tennis's third dam, Born Gold is dam of 3 time U.S. Champion Turf Mile(and Europe's 4 time champion female) And 3 time BC Turf Mile winner, Goldikova. If she had one more start this year or if one start was at a mile, she would be my top choice in this race. However, since she does not, I will still toss her in my super box and key.

Bets: WP 3, Ex Box 3-7, Tri Box 3-5-7, .10 Super 3-5-6-7, Super Key 3 with 5-6-7 with 5-6-7 with 5-6-7.

However, if this race is taken off the grass, it is a pass for me, as none of my choices has shown they can handle the surface switch.

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My Preakness Analysis

The Preakness should be a pretty good race to bet this year mostly because most have marks against them and the race looks wide open. This is the type of race I enjoy betting the most because there is always value if you can figure out who will move forward and who will regress or is simply outclassed. So my thoughts are below for those who likes an opinion of what might happen. Or maybe not, but I will at least take a small chance based on the way I see it.

War Of Will(4-1)---- I ended up betting him to WP in the Ky Derby when I saw the track was going to be sloppy. However, when he was going down the stretch the first time, it look to me like he was bothered by the kickback of the off track and took a while to get used to it. While he lost a couple of lengths when he got tangled up with MS and a couple of others, he was able to make most of it back up when MS swerved back towards the rail and bumped with COH turning for home. His jockey sensing he still was in the thick of it, used him pretty hard in the stretch and faded late. Since he has no works since that start that I can use as a measuring stick to how he came out of that start, I will try to beat him and will look at others to include in my exotics.

2) Bourbon War(12-1)---- Last seen running 4th in the Fla Derby where he had little chance of catching the pace setters through slow fraction for a G1 race. So that race is a toss for me. However, in the FOY, he was allowed to wait until the pace setters burned each other out and he was along in time to pick up the pieces. In the Preakness, he will be facing better horses than he faced that day, so I believe he will not benefit from tiring front runners in this race as much as he did in that race. And with the addition of blinkers, it helps some horses but is also a detriment to other horses by making them to keen to go to early. So while he definitely has a chance to win, I will be looking elsewhere.

3) Warrior's Charge(12-1)---- After opening his career with 3 thirds in three maiden special weights against several good sprinters, he has won his last two going away after being stretch out and being put on the lead, both in good times. Supplemented to this race for $150,000, he sports the same trainer as Monomoy Girl, who beat the best 3 YO fillies racing had to offer last year, using similar tactics. Warrior's Charge's sire Munnings, is a look alike replica of Secretariat, including the built, three white socks and the blazed face. However, he was bred with too much speed influence to resemble Secretariat on the track, though he is inbred to him. However, his broodmare sire, Broken Vow, is a son of Unbridled out of a daughter of Nijinsky II, so that should give him enough stamina to be a major factor, especially since starting with Warrior's Charge's 4th dam, you see, Roberto, Tom Fool, Princequillo, War Admiral and the best bloodlines racing had to offer in dams for generations on back. So, he will be included in my exotics. A definite in my trifecta and super boxes.

4) Improbable(5-2)----The morning line favorite for this race and off as the favorite in the Ky Derby, he really had no shot to win the derby as he was behind a wall of horses for most of that running with no room to get through until he was left with too much to do. With such a good jockey on him, you should have expected a much better ride than he actually got. Now Baffert goes to his main jockey over the last few years, gives his a horse a maintenance breeze, indicating he came out of the derby ready to get another shot at winning and he certainly would be no real surprise if he did just that. While I will definitely include him in my super box, at least, I will go for others in my exacta, trifecta and WP bets.

5) Owendale(10-1)---- Another trained by Brad Cox, his best race came in the G3 Lexington S and while it was decent, I believe he will need to step up his game to a level he has not shown yet to be a factor, so I will pass.

6) Market King(30-1)--- Another who will need by far a career best even to compete against these, so he is another pass for me.

7) Alwaysmining(8-1)---- I feel he is a wise guy type of horse and he has beaten very little except Win Win Win but that came on a good track and at a distance he should have like more than that horse. His trainer is trying for his first G1 win and he picked a tough spot to accomplished that. Even Signalman has beaten him and he simply looks like a horse for the course type and he has never won away from Laurel Park. Will make him beat me, especially at his projected odds.

8) Signalman(30-1)--- Here is one that would be a mistake to not at least consider. He has two starts this year, the first in the FOY when his trainer tried to get him ready by working him in a 46 3/5, followed by a slow work, then another good work, followed by another slow work, indicating he was not ready to fire. Then after two more good works to sharpen his speed, he ran him in the Blue Grass S on Keeneland's heavy speed favoring track, changed the horse's running style to keep him close to the pace and he flatten out late to just miss 2nd. He decided early to bypass the derby because he was on the outside needing a couple of scratches and pointed him towards this race instead. Four more solid works since the BG and he is sitting on ready. And for those of you who does not know who Ken McPeek is, he has trained a Ky Derby runner up in 1995(Tejano Run), A Belmont S winner(Sarava at 70-1 denying War Emblem a TC and beating Medaglia D'Oro in 2002), and a Travers DH winner(Golden Ticket at 30-1 finished in a DH with Alpha in 2012). He was also trainer of Take Charge Lady and more recently, Daddy's Lil Darling. I hope they let him off at 30-1 because I will slam them. On all my exotics bets.

9) Bodexpress(20-1)--- While still a maiden, he had a pretty good run going in the Ky Derby before he was taken up and lost all chance. However, he is bred to love the off going and it was probably the biggest reason he was still in that race that late. He probably will not get the conditions that will flatter his style in this start, so I will pass on using him.

10) Everfast(50-1)--- Will need by far a career best and I can not phantom where he will get that from. Pass.

11) Laughing Fox(20-1)--- His only race worth noting was the Ark Derby and someone had to run 4th in that race and the top two were much the best. So he will need a major improvement, just to get close to hitting the board, so I will have to pass.

12) Anothertwistafate(6-1)---- Another who I think will be overbet for what he has accomplished and both G3 defeats came against others who would look (or does) overmatched in here. Pass, not willing to accept low odds on this one.

13) Win Win Win(15-1) --- He was the horse I liked the most heading up to the Ky Derby, but I ended up changing my mind because of the sloppy conditions, his outside post on that track and his BG run gave me some doubt he could give it his best run after such a hard race to just become eligible. I usually find it hard to bet any horse in their next start(or I often regret doing so) after he checked and then had to closed that much ground in such a short stretch. And he ended up proving either that thought was right or that he was simply not good enough. I am going with the former thought because I know how difficult it is to close on sloppy racetracks without a blazing pace, something he did not get in the derby. He will be in all my exotics tomorrow.

My Bets: $40 WP 8, $5 Ex Box 8-13, $2 Ex Box 3-8-13, $1 Tri Box 3-8-13, $3 Tri Key 8 With 3-13 with 3-13, $4 Tri Key 8-13 with 8-13 with 3, .10 Super Box 3-4-8-13, $2 Super Key 8 With 3-4-13 with 3-4-13 with 3-4-13. Total Cost $136.40. Good Luck To All!!

Kentucky Derby 2019 Analysis

**Just a little background: I have posted my father's Derby write up the past few years and it seems to get a good response. If anyone has any questions I can see if he can answer them. Good luck!
"I have been writing this analysis of the Kentucky Derby since 1983, but as I sit down to write this year’s analysis, I am awed by the fact that this will be my 50th consecutive Derby. So, from that standpoint, this write up is very special.
First an overview of this year’s field: -The field will consist of 20 colts, 19 from America and one from Japan. -These colts will be trained by 16 different trainers, only 3 of these trainers have previously won the Derby. The other 13 will be trying to win it for the first time. -The colts entered in the race are a lightly raced group, much like last year’s entrants. However, this year’s colts are more lightly raced than last year’s – an average of 5.5 career starts (last year’s colts averaged 5.9 career starts before the Derby). -Last year I spoke about the way trainers were being very cautious in the number of races they are giving their charges. Well that trend is continuing this year. This year 10 colts have fewer than 6 career starts, half the field! -Additionally, 8 colts are going into the Derby with only 2 starts as a 3-YO. Back in the good old days (the 1980’s and 90’s), these lightly raced colts’ chances of winning the race were pretty slim, but today this is the norm among Derby entrants. -While the field is light on experience, they are long on earnings – 3 of them are already millionaires, a testament to the lofty purses colts are running for these days.
I will now begin my analysis of all 20 colts (no fillies are entered this year), listing them in the order of points they have accumulated going into the Derby. But please remember that the order I analyze them in is probably not the order that I see them finishing the race.
Tacitus: This son of Tapit is one of two colts in the race trained by Bill Mott who is seeking his first Kentucky Derby win. Tacitus has only 4 lifetime starts, including 2 this year. Many people felt that his win in the 1-1/8-mile Wood Memorial at Aqueduct was the best prep race of any of the 3-YOs this year. The winner of the Wood has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby 11 times, but the last Wood/Derby winner was in 2000. It seems like the “bloom is off the rose” as far as Wood winners repeating in Louisville. Though he has only raced 4 times in his career, his speed figures have increased as the distances have gotten longer – a good sign for a colt trying a 1-1/4 miles race in the Derby. I am a little concerned that he is untested against Grade 1 company (the Wood was a Grade 2 race), but I am sure he will take some play from the bettors come Derby day. I may have to use him in my exotic bets ( bets other than win, place & show) in the Derby.
Omaha Beach: This colt has never been out of the money in 7 career starts. However, it took him 5 tries to break his maiden – not necessarily an encouraging sign. He has been the favorite in 6 of his 7 races, so he is somewhat of a “money burner”. However, that being said, he may very well be the favorite in the Derby and he gets the services of Mike Smith who had to choose between Omaha Beach and Roadster. I believe that the betting money will follow “Big Money Mike” on Derby day. Note that Mike Smith has only won 2 Kentucky Derbies from probably 20 or more mounts – not a good record for such an established rider. A couple of things that I don’t like about Omaha Beach; he began his career with 3 races on the grass before switching to dirt, 2 of his 3 wins have come on sloppy tracks with his other win by a narrow nose on a fast dirt surface. On the other hand, he has beaten proven colts in Game Winner (last year’s 2-YO champion) and Improbable (winner of the GR 1 Los Alamitos Futurity). His trainer, Richard Mandella, will be trying to win his 1st Derby (he is 0 for 6 in the race) with this colt and I have to say that he has as good a chance as anybody to win.
Vekoma: Another lightly raced colt with only 4 career starts, including 2 this year, and, like Tacitus, he is untested against Grade 1 company. Trained by George Weaver, who is seeking his 1st Derby win, this colt won the BlueGrass Stakes beating Win Win Win and Signalman – two colts he may face in Louisville. The BlueGrass has produced 10 Derby winners, but none since 1991. He is a well-travelled colt, each of his starts has come over a different track. I have always liked this colt, he has a good late turn of foot (how fast he is) and being out of Candy Ride, the Derby distance should not be a problem. However, he has a weird way of “moving”; in the stretch he seems to “paddle” his left front leg. This may not serve him well in the long stretch at CD. Also, his trainer does not have a very good record in graded stakes competition, winning at only a 6% rate. I think he will present some good odds come Derby day and just might be a must use in the exotics.
Plus Que Parfait: This colt’s claim to fame is that he won the $2.5M UAE Derby in Dubai in March. He is trained by Brendan Walsh who is another trainer seeking his 1st Derby win. I’ve observed that horses that fly half way around the world to run in Dubai, have a pretty hard time getting back into racing shape upon their return from that trip. He got the big money in Dubai but I don’t see him getting any money in the Derby so I will pass.
Roadster: Roadster is one of Bob Baffert’s three possible Derby entrants and the colt that Mike Smith didn’t choose to ride in the Derby. This son of Quality Road (a very good sire), who will be ridden by Florent Geroux, is also lightly raced with only 4 career starts, including 2 this year. He did win the Santa Anita Derby over Game Winner and Instagrand and the Santa Anita Derby has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, including three since 2012 – Justify, California Chrome and I’ll Have Another. This colt overcame some breathing issues after surgery last year and had been ridden by Mike Smith in all his career starts, so when Mike chose Omaha Beach over Roadster it must have been a surprise to Baffert & Co. Obviously a very talented colt who might be the 2nd betting choice in the race, but I am unsure at this point how I will play him.
By My Standards: This colt has 5 career starts and took four tries to break his maiden – not very encouraging. He is trained by Bret Calhoun, who is also seeking his first Derby win. He did win the Louisiana Derby at odds of 22-1 beating Spinoff and Sueno. However, the Louisiana Derby has only produced 2 Kentucky Derby winners, the last one being Grindstone in 1996. I am a little concerned about his ability to get the 1-1/4 miles in the Derby based on his breeding. I can’t really say that I would recommend anyone bet him to win so I will pass.
Maximum Security: This undefeated colt, from 4 lifetime starts, began racing in December last year in claiming and optional claiming races (I guess his connections didn’t feel he was that good) and was not really tested until he ran, and won, the Florida Derby in a very good time. In that race he beat Code of Honor, Bodexpress and Bourbon War. All his wins have come by good margins (3-1/2 to 18 lengths. He is trained by Jason Servis who is also looking for his first Derby win. He has only gone two turns in a race once in 4 tries and has been ridden by 3 different jockeys in 4 races, again, something that is not that encouraging. I don’t think I will bet him.
Game Winner: Last year’s 2-YO champion has won three Grade 1 races in 6 lifetime starts so he is a very good colt. He has never been out of the money and his two losses were by a nose and a ½ length. He lost the Santa Anita Derby to Roadster and the Rebel Stakes to Omaha Beach, two colts who will be highly regarded come Derby day. He is the second of Bob Baffert’s three probable entries. All three have the credentials to win the Derby and he has a win over the CD track last November in the Breeders’ Cup (always a plus to have a win over the CD surface). In a race full of speed, he has a tactical advantage in that he can get good position and lay off the pace until they hit the top of the stretch. On a slightly down note, he lost his 2 starts this year, each as the favorite, after an undefeated 2-YO campaign. Though he lost to good colts (see above) I am not sure that Bob had him cranked up for either of those efforts. He will likely be a reasonable price in the Derby, and I may have to take a long hard look at him before I bet.
Code of Honor: A somewhat inconsistent colt, he has 2 wins in 5 lifetime starts, but 2 of his losses were in Grade 1 company. He has been beaten by Maximum Security and Bodexpress in the Florida Derby after he won the Fountain of Youth stakes over Bourbon War and Vekoma. He is trained by “Shug” McGaughey who won the 2013 Derby with Orb, and knows what it takes to win the Derby. His breeding is such that he could run all day so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. He will probably be a double digit price in the Derby and I am a little hesitant to do more than maybe put him in a trifecta or superfecta box.
Haikal: Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin this colt could be Kiaran’s 1St Derby winner. Yeah, read that again - Kiaran has never won the Kentucky Derby. However, I don’t think this is his year to score that elusive victory. This colt was beaten by Tacitus and Tax in the Wood, 2 colts he will face in the Derby. Haikal has always been in the money, in 5 career starts, but has not run outside Aqueduct. I am suspect of a colt who has wintered in NY – he can’t be that good if they didn’t ship to FLA for the winter. I will pass, on the win bet but maybe find a place for him in the exotics.
Improbable: Bob Baffert’s 3rd entry has finished in the money in all of his 5 career starts and has a win over the CD track. He won the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in December before going to Arkansas for his 2 starts this year. In the Rebel, at Oaklawn, he was beaten by Long Range Toddy and then he was a close 2nd in the Arkansas Derby getting beat by Omaha Beach. He will face both colts in the Derby. His running style (tracking the pace) should suit him well. However, I question whether he can get the 1-1/4 miles of the Derby as he is out of City Zip, a sprinter. Anyway, he is a good colt with a very good trainer so I will have to take a long, hard look at him before deciding whether to bet him or not.
War of Will: One of three colts in the race who have 8 lifetime starts, this Mark Casse trainee began his career with 4 starts on the turf before breaking his maiden at CD over a sloppy track. Casse has yet to win the Derby and I have doubts that this colt will give him his first Derby victory. This colt should not have any trouble with the distance, but he took a bad beating as the 4-5 favorite in the Louisiana Derby losing by 12 lengths to the likes of By My Standards, Spinoff and Suneo. His connections have always though highly of him. He was entered in three graded stakes races as a 2-YO even though he was a maiden, but I won’t be betting him in the Derby.
Long Range Toddy: Another colt with 8 lifetime starts, he will try to get Steve Asmussen his first Derby win. However, he was badly beaten in the Arkansas Derby over a sloppy track by Omaha Beach, Improbable and Country House, although he did beat Improbable in the Rebel. I believe that he is not as good as he looks on paper and I don’t think he will get the Derby distance based on his breeding. It should be noted that he has never been the favorite in any of his 8 lifetime starts. I will likely bypass him in favor of others.
Tax: A consistent colt who has finished in the money in all his 5 career starts. He began his career in claiming races, including one at CD, and was claimed for $50K in his 2nd start by his trainer Danny Gargan who is an up and coming trainer. It is rare that a former claimer runs in, let alone wins, the Derby. Tax’s last three races have been at a 1-1/8 miles all at Aqueduct so he should not have any trouble handling the Derby distance. He was beaten in the Wood by Tacitus, one of the likely Derby favorites, but was not able to get to the winner in the stretch. So, this is a colt who has plenty of potential, but I have to wonder if his trainer is ready to take on the big boys in Louisville. He will probably be double digit odds in the Derby and a 4th place finish might be as good as he can do.
Cutting Humor: One of the two Todd Pletcher colts in the race, this colt sports 2 wins in 6 lifetime starts and I have to wonder why Todd thinks he should enter this colt. He is not that consistent having been beaten nearly 9 lengths as the favorite in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, behind Sueno and Long Range Toddy, and barely hanging on to beat Anothertwistafate in the Sunland Derby. He also lost to Bourbon War in an optional claiming race in January. This colt will be a longshot in the Derby and I will take a pass.
Win Win Win: This colt has never finished out of the money in 6 lifetime starts for trainer Michael Trombetta, who is another trainer seeking his first Derby win. Trombetta has not won a graded stakes race in his career so why would he prevail in America’s greatest race? Also, I doubt that this colt can handle the distance of the race based on his breeding and the fact that his 2 wins have come in one turn races. He has been beaten By Vekoma in the BlueGrasss Stakes and Tacitus and Outshine in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is always well backed at the windows so in some regards he is a “money burner” and I see him as a longshot in the race. Another one I will pass on.
Country House: Bill Mott’s second entry, this colt has only a maiden win in 6 lifetime starts so why is he in here? He has been beaten by Omaha Beach and Improbable in the Arkansas Derby, By My Standards, Spinoff and Sueno in the Louisiana Derby and War of Will in the Risen star. If he can’t win the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies how is he going to win the Kentucky Derby? He seems to have trouble getting out of the gate and he lost ground in the stretch of his last two 1-1/8 miles races. Another longshot and another colt I will pass on.
Gray Magician: I doubt that Peter Miller will secure his first Derby win with this colt. In fact he might be the longest shot on the board when the gates open. He has one win in 8 career starts, was beaten by Plus Que Parfait in Dubai (you know how I feel about horses going to Dubai to race), was 5th in an optional claiming race in January and does not have the breeding to get the 1-1/4 miles. Again, I will pass.
Spinoff: Todd Pletcher’s 2nd entry in the race, this colt has hit the board in all 4 of his career starts. He was 2nd in the Louisiana Derby to By My Standards, after grabbing the lead in mid-stretch. In that race he finished ahead of Sueno and War of Will. His speed figures have improved with every start as the distances have increased. He is a son of Hard Spun, a horse who ran 2nd in the Derby so I think that the distance should not be a problem for him in the Derby. He will likely be double digit odds in the Derby and might be a sneaky price horse in the tri or superfectas. However, I don’t think I will be playing him in the exotics as there are other colts that I prefer over him.
Master Fencer: This colt got into the Derby by way of a racing series in Japan. He certainly seems like he can handle the distance as all of his 6 career starts in Japan have been at distances of a mile or longer, including two 1-1/4 mile grass races. All that being said, I have no idea what his competition was in Japan and I will have to pass on this colt.
In the event that there is a scratch or two before the derby, these two other colts might get into the race.
Bodexpress: He is trained by Gustavo Delgado, a trainer I know nothing about who has only started 36 horses in races this year. Bodexpress is still a maiden after 5 starts. The only reason he might get in the Derby is that he ran 2nd in the Florida Derby at odds of 71-1. His breeding suggests that he will not be able to handle the 1-1/4 miles in the Derby. Three maidens have won the derby, the last one being Brokers Tip in 1933. Eleven maidens have started in the Derby since 1937 and the best finish of those was 8th place. Can’t even fathom betting on him – even with someone else’s money.
Signalman: This Ken McPeek trainee has been fairly consistent in his 7 lifetime starts, being in the money in 6 of those races. However, he has been beaten by 7 other Derby entrants in his races, but he has been in the money in 3 races over the CD surface, including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club and a 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If he gets in, he will likely be at double digit odds, and I might have to give him a long, hard look in the exotics.
Now the moment of truth, how will I play the race? It will be tough to leave Omaha Beach out of any discussion as to whom might win the race, but I have concerns about him as stated in my analysis. I have always liked Vekoma, but again, I think that his way of moving through the stretch may not serve him well. I will probably make a win bet on either Tacitus or Game Winner with a slight edge to Game Winner. So, my bets might look something like this - a win on Game Winner, an exacta box using Game Winner, Tacitus, Roadster and Omaha Beach. I will play a 5-colt trifecta box with these four plus Vekoma. OK, I know what you’re thinking, “This is a very chalky group of bets” I know that but the goal is to cash tickets and with this group of colts it is hard to look past the ones I have listed to find a “live longshot”. This is a very competitive race. Any one of 7 or 8 colts could easily win, so as usual I reserve the right to change my mind and make different bets than those listed above. Hopefully everyone will enjoy the event and maybe I will come home a WINNER!!!!!!!!!!

Preview of the Pegasus World Cup and more

We will be solely focused on Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. as the two richest races in the country are set to be run.
The co-featured races include the $9 million Pegasus World Cup for four year olds and up, and the inaugural running of the $7 million Pegasus World Cup Turf, also for four year olds and up.
The entire Gulfstream card on Saturday is a blockbuster as they will run nine Stakes races all told and we will be examining six of them.
They include: The Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, which came up very competitive, the Hurricane Bertie, which will feature the 2019 debut of 2018 Female Champion Sprinter winner Shamrock Rose, the La Prevoyante Stakes, a marathon event for fillies and mares, and the Fred W Hooper, another well matched field going a mile on the dirt.
Before moving forward, as most of you know, I will do a now and again “Back-Track” segment and talk about what happened last weekend.
There was so much talent on display last weekend I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about the five horses who were very impressive in their respective races.
In no particular order, Dessman, an enormous, roughly 1,250 pound, $750,000 son of Union Rags absolutely waltzed home a 7 ½ length winner in his debut. Albeit a bit green, I loved how he was moving down the lane, his stride is impeccible and he will only get better with experience. As Justify taught us last year, it’s not too late for this gorgeous bay colt to make the Derby.
Win Win Win was visually impressive coming from last, circling the field on the outside and blew the doors off his competitors in the Pasco Stakes. The son of Hat Trick won by 7 1/4 lengths. He didn’t just break the track record for seven furlongs while winning for the third time in four starts, he shattered it, getting the distance is 1:20.4 over a notoriously tiring Tampa Bay Downs surface.
Americandy was also impressive in breaking his maiden first time out at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. The colt by Candy Ride missed the break and was dead last at first call. He too unleashed a powerful run around “the hook” while going a ridiculous six wide, yet powered away from his rivals in winning by two “going away” lengths.
Also at the Fair Grounds, War of Will stalked the early pace, took over at the six furlong marker and cruised to an easy four length win in the Le Comte Stakes. He exudes class and I look forward to what this hybrid grass/dirt runner will do down the road.
The highly touted, $500,000 Flor de La Mar was no secret as she went off at 1/5 in her racing debut and lived up to the hype while decimating her rivals in her racing debut. The titanic filly, who outworked Dessman in the mornings, has a big, beautiful, long, loping stride that covers a ton of ground effortlessly, seems to have a really big future.
Lastly, crack sprinter X Y Jet got caught in protracted and wicked speed duel (:21 flat and :43.2) and understandably tired badly at the eighth pole. He’ll live to fight another day.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Gulfstream Park
Race: 3 (12:30 PM EST Post)
Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes
This is a really good race, one where the break will be the key. That said, and even though he was run down in deep stretch by Stormy Liberal in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in November, I still think World of Trouble has a world of talent. Albeit he’s never run on a turf course labeled firm, he’s run huge in all three turf starts. The cut back in distance off his sloppy tracked, colossal margin win in his last should hit him right between the eyes here. A 23% Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the leg up from a scalding hot (12-32= 38%) Jason Servis and with no speed to his inside, he should be able to work out a good trip in this spot……………………..This race sets up very well for 2018 Champion Male Turf Horse Stormy Liberal. The now seven year old, stretch runner figures to “sit the trip” behind the plethora of speed in this spot and make his run down the lane. You can go ahead and throw out that last race on the downhill course at Santa Anita as he was too close to an insanely fast early pace (:42 half mile). The 4 for 4 record at this distance is impressive as is the bullet work (5F- :59.4) last week…a must use in any exotics betting scenarios……………………Pay Any Price is faster than a proverbial speeding bullet as he consistently rattles off sub :22 second first quarters and sub :45 second half miles. The nine year old veteran is an astounding 15 for 25 in his career including being a mind boggling 12 for 17 on this oval. A white hot Paco Lopez (5 for his last 16 through Wednesday of this week) is the perfect (speed) rider for this horse as well. He probably needed his troubled trip last as it was his first start in three months. Lastly, I did find it interesting that he has no published works since Dec. 19………………Honorable Mentions: Am I the only one who is intrigued that Recruiting Ready is making his turf debut against two of the nation’s best turf sprinters? It took me a minute but I think I see it. Note the one and only turf work he shows at Palm Meadows last week as it was tremendous; going 4F in :47.4 with dogs up. Perhaps trainer Stanley Hough, who is no babe in the woods, saw something there………………..My long-shot toss in is Oak Bluffs, who has shown next to nothing in four of his last five outings. But note he is a 16 time winner and this is clearly his favorite surface as his 10-3-5-0 record on this turf course would indicate. (My Play: $1 trifecta box using all five. Cost: $60.00)

Race: 7 (2:30 PM EST Post)
Hurricane Bertie Stakes
Shamrock Rose was super impressive when coming “over the top” to pull off a colossal upset (26-1) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint in November. That win was her fourth straight to end 2018 and propelled her to an Eclipse Award for Champion Female Sprinter. This good looking daughter of the strapping First Dude, who is 2 for 2 at this distance, handled what appears to be her biggest threat in this race (Blamed) with ease back in October and she has been working very well for her 2019 debut.. She is no slam dunk in this spot as this track goes against the grain of her deep closer running style, but she might pick up where she left off last year …………….....………The aforementioned Blamed sports a very impressive 8-6-2-0 career mark. Filly by Blame wired the field in the Nov 23rd Comely Stakes in her swan song race of 2018. Although this will be her first start since, she has run well off of long breaks several times before…..looks next best………………………….The regally bred Dream Pauline is three for four in her career with all three wins coming on three different surfaces, so you have to like her adaptability. This filly by Tapit out of Grade: 1 Test Stakes winner Dream Rush will be stretching out to seven panels for the first time and stepping up in class as well, but she is another who is training well and you get the third start off the layoff angle…………………Honorable Mentions: If you draw a line through Stormy Embrace’s Breeders’ Cup debacle, you’ll see this five year old mare had a very strong 2018 (7-4-1-2). She has hit the board in 7 of 9 tries at this distance and 7 of 9 on the oval. That, readers, is consistency…..could conceivably better this rating……………………I had a difficult time separating Ms Meshak and Pacific Gale for the fifth slot in my “go to” five horse, trifecta box. I’m going to go with Ms Meshak based on the fact that she is batting .500 on this track and appears to be coming into this in good form while winning back to back races vs. lesser. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the top five. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 8 (3:00 PM EST Post)
La Prevoyante Stakes
Si Que Es Buena is an Argentinian import who rallied strongly from twelfth position early to finish fourth, beaten by just one length, in her U.S. debut in New York. She came back and overcame a mistimed move by her rider to gamely win a minor Stakes race on this turf course last time out. Although she didn’t break any track records and her speed figures were average at best, she still looks best in this wide open affair………………….Tricky Escape had a three race win streak snapped when probably overmatched in the Grade: 1 Flower Bowl back in October. She bounced back nicely off of that effort when finishing a close second in the Grade: 3 Long Island Stakes while finishing ahead of my top pick at the same time. The Grade: 3 level looks like her comfort zone, so she should be competitive here……………………………. Santa Monica disappointed while showing zilch in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last time out. But this good looking, now six year old mare, had run bang up in all five previous U.S. starts and it would be no surprise if she bounces back and runs big here………………..Honorable Mentions: English Affair finished off 2018 strongly with a close up, third place finish at Keeneland, then overcame a slow pace to take the Cardinal Handicap at Churchill Downs. Threat if she picks up where she left off………………………..Although Holy Helena has never tried this distance before, she was a fast closing second behind my top pick at 1 3/16ths miles late time out. Filly by the wickedly fast Ghostzapper is 3 for 7 on the turf and has serious “back class” while winning the Queens Plate (Canadian Kentucky Derby) in 2017. (My play: .50 trifecta box, all 5. Cost $30.00)

Race: 9 (3:30 PM EST Post)
Fred W. Hooper Stakes
Coal Front not only bounced back to his winning ways while blasting his rivals in the Grade: 3 “Mr. P” Stakes last time out, but did so by showing a new dimension. This speedy, $575,000 son of Stay Thirsty assumed a stalking position that day, took the lead on “the hook” and scampered away late to win by almost four lengths. I’m not worried he’ll be going a mile in this spot as a) he showed no signs of not being able to handle an extra furlong in the Mr. P and b) this is still a one turn race for this ridgling who is 5 for 7 in his career. It’ll be interesting to see the plan of attack here as we know he has excellent early speed and draws the rail, yet was successful using rating tactics last time out…………………Unbridled Juan won three of his last four in Maryland to close out 2018. Although this will be his first start in some 2 ½ months he does run well fresh and he likes this track as his 4-2-1-1 record over it would indicate………………………After winning 3 of 11 starts and $68,000 in 2017, Aztec Sense came back and had a “perfect” 2018 while winning all eight starts and over $400,000. His speed figures are on par or better than most of these and he mirrors Unbridled Juan in the sense he likes this track (3 for 4 over it) and he runs well fresh……..scary………………Honorable Mentions: Copper Town’s last race was too bad to be true. This good looking son of wide spectrum sire Speightstown blew through maidens and two allowance levels but completely mailed it in last time out in the Cigar Mile. He’s had 56 days off to “regroup” and it won’t surprise me at all if he outruns this rating…………………………My long-shot throw in is Fellowship, who has shown very little in his last several races while going just 1 for 10 in 2018. But he is back on his home track, where he has made over $500,000, and he is going to pop a big race one of these days. (My Play: .50 trifecta using all 5. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 11 (4:30 PM EST Post)
Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes
Yoshida looks the one to beat here as this now five year old is a Grade: 1 winner on the dirt (Woodward Stakes) and on the turf (Churchill Turf Classic)….that’s impressive. Also impressive was his Breeders’ Cup Classic effort. This Bill Mott trainee bobbled at the break and soon found himself near the back of the pack and some 14-15 lengths out of it. He then launched a brazen, six wide run on “the hook” and, although understandably hanging like a cheap suit in deep stretch, he was only beaten by less than two lengths behind Horse of the Year candidate Accelerate. He has worked well since over the notoriously deep track at Payson Park and this distance should be no problem at all. Slight edge in wide open horse race that features three females and several Grade: 1 winners…………………….In taking Yoshida, Catapult scares me. This $350,000 son of Kitten’s Joy had a very good, albeit brief, 2018 highlighted by just missing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile last time out. He won back to back Grade: 2’s prior to that in California and finished both races in very quick final times. I’m not worried this will be his first start since the BC since a) I love his work pattern as he shows three stamina building, six furlong works topped off by solid five furlong works and b) he is still another who seems to run well fresh…..dangerous foe………………….Although Bricks and Mortar will be taking a major league class hike here and stretching out in distance, he is about 1 ½ lengths away from unbeaten in seven starts. This stretch runner by the late super sire Giant’s Causeway finished just inches behind Yoshida the two times they’ve squared off and he shows a monster work (5F- :59.2) at Palm Meadows last week……………………………….Honorable Mentions: If you draw a line through Next Share’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile debacle, you’ll see he’s won three straight including pulling off a major upset in the Grade: 1 Shadwell Turf Mile three starts back. In his current form, he could better this rating………………….A similar thing can be said for Channel Maker, who also showed little in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile but ran bang up in his three previous races, including winning a Grade: 1. ……………………..Delta Prince, who is a half brother to multiple Eclipse Champion, the late Royal Delta, returns to his preferred surface (turf) and has hit the board in 10 of 11 career tries, Aerolithe, a gray mare from Japan who sports a 13-4-5-0 record and gets the “dark horse” label in here and Magic Wand, a four year old filly who set the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and held well in deep stretch, all merit consideration…but you can’t play them all. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the first five. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 12 (5:00PM EST Post)
Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes
2018 Champion Older Male and Horse of the Year runner up Accelerate really needs no introduction as his 2018 season was remarkable. The now six year old son of two time champion Lookin’ at Lucky won six of seven starts including an eye popping five Grade: 1’s highlighted by the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Trainer John Sadler looks to have this chestnut “revved up” for swan song race as he shows three straight bullet works capped off by a visually impressive 5F in :58.4 this past week. …………………………Aside from possibly Enable and Newspaperofrecord, City of Light’s tour de force win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile might have been THE most impressive win I saw throughout the entire Breeders’ Cup weekend. This gorgeous son of Quality Road broke running that day and never looked back. He too has run a hole in the wind in the morning since and he also should be “fully cranked up” here for his farewell race. That said, and even though he is 1 for 1 with a win over Accelerate at it, I don’t think nine furlongs is his best distance. From what I’ve seen his “wheel house” is between seven and eight and a half furlongs and that, readers, could play a part in the outcome. Past that, Castellano appears to be sitting on a keg of dynamite here……………………..I hate to put the drop dead gorgeous Audible this far down, I really do. I expect this $500,000 son of Into Mischief to be major force in the older make division in 2019 as, even though he severely disappointed at 1/5 in his last (prep) race for this, he has an enormous amount of talent. I generally don’t buy trainers excuses for losses but I am completely selling out on what trainer Todd Pletcher said about how “he didn’t handle the sealed/wet track.” Head hunters in New Guinea and lost tribes in the Amazon could see this colt struggling with the surface in that race especially leaving the three eighths pole and around “the hook”. Bottom line here is he is an exotics inclusion for me for sure…………………….Honorable Mentions: Gunnevera was jostled at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Classic but was coming hard, late and was just one length behind Accelerate in a super good effort. This big chestnut by Dialed In was charging hard, late behind Yoshida in the Woodward prior to that, so he is certainly in good form and clearly has ability. I like his work pattern coming into this also as he shows a steady line of stamina building works, signaling to me he might run big once again in this spot…………………..Patternrecognition comes into this razor sharp off three consecutive “coast to coast” scores in his last three, highlighted by taking down the Grade: 1 Cigar Mile in his last. They better not let him cruise on an easy lead or he may prove difficult to catch late…………………Just a few other notes about this race: I wonder which Bravazo will show up on Saturday? The one that got beat narrowly by Justify in the Preakness, you know, the same one who got beat by a neck in the Clark Handicap last time out or the one who lays an egg like in the Pennsylvania Derby back in September? Either way, as tough as he is, as he was the only horse other than Justify to run in all three Triple Crown races, that 2 for 11 record in 2018 just doesn’t do it for me………………………..Tom’s d’Etat has won 6 of 9 starts, including his last four in a row by a combined 22 lengths, vs. far, far lesser and his speed figures aren’t all that bad…………………..Mexican Triple Crown winner Kukulan, who is 14 for 14 in his career and no one has ever been close to beating him, should be fun to watch. His prep race was visually impressive to watch but his final time (1:54.4 for this nine furlong distance) and his speed figure that day (70), will get him blown away in this race. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the first five. Cost: $30.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team

[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])

2019- Record: 4-11 = 36% (My Plays: -$258.05)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Four-time Eclipse Award champion Beholder delivered a bay filly by Curlin Jan. 19th at Spendthrift Farm in Lexington.
"Beholder had a very nice Curlin filly this afternoon, and we're happy to report both mother and foal are doing really well," said Ned Toffey, general manager at Spendthrift. "We couldn't be prouder of Beholder. She is such a professional and continues to perform beautifully in her second career as a broodmare. We've been very fortunate. The delivery was as normal and straightforward as you could ask for.
The filly was born at 4:25 p.m. and "jumped right up" according to Toffey. She is the second foal for Beholder, who had an Uncle Mo colt (named Q B One) last year.
Mating plans for Beholder in 2019 have yet to be announced.

**** 2018 Two Year old Male Champion Game Winner had his second work of 2019 last Sunday at Santa Anita Park, breezing a half-mile in :48.3 for trainer Bob Baffert. The 3 year old son of Candy Ride is being pointed to the San Felipe Stakes on March 9th as his first start of the season.
“He'll get ready pretty quick,” Baffert said.
Other notables on the work tab last Sunday:
Coliseum, trained by Baffert and most recently finished sixth in the Sham after a bad start, breezed five furlongs from the gate in 1:00.4.
Improbable, also trained by Baffert, worked a half in :48 flat.
Instagrand, winner of the Best Pal Stakes in August, breezed a half-mile in 47.3.
Sham Stakes winner Gunmetal Gray breezed five furlongs in 1:02.4.

**** …………Annnnnnnnnd finally in the occasional “This has nothing to do with Horse Racing” section.
UPS driver Ryan Arens was on his route shortly before Christmas when he pulled up to a house in Bozeman, Montana, and heard a dog in distress by a pond beyond the house where he was delivering.
"This dog was screaming and crying and going crazy," Arens said.
With the sun was nearly set, Arens couldn’t see anything. He delivered a package and then drove to the other side of the pond.
"I could see the dog trapped about 10-15 feet off of shore, with ice all around it," he said.
An older man was in a rowboat on the pond, trying with little success to chip away the ice to reach the dog.
"I stripped to my boxers and got the guy out of the boat. Then, I slid the boat out onto the ice, using it to distribute my weight," Arens said. "I shimmed out to where the ice was thin."
The ice gave way and Arens fell out of the boat and into the 16-feet-deep water. Since he was already wet and, with the "dog starting to go under," Arens started swimming quickly towards the dog.
He grabbed her collar and swam for the ice, sliding the dog across the ice to shore. He pulled himself out of the water and a bystander handed him a blanket.
"We took the dog inside the older guy's house and got in the shower together to warm up," he said.
About then, the sheriff's department and animal control arrived. Help was on the way, but "I knew someone had to get to her. She wasn't going to make it."
Despite his adventure and cuts on his leg, Arens finished his route, delivering 20 more packages.
"It was the highlight of my 14-year UPS career." Arebs said afterwards.
Arens found out where the dog's owner lived and happened to have a package to deliver to him. As he walked up, he saw the dog, whose name he learned is Sadie, in the guy's pickup.
"She was freaking out, and when he let her out she ran to me," he said. "She must have remembered me. It sure made me feel good."

My Belmont Park Picks For Friday

Here are my picks for Belmont this Friday. I am only listing my picks because this is who I will be betting. It should not and does not imply I know any more about horse racing than the next person. However, I have hit my share of races through the years and there is no better feeling than collecting after one of your bombs wins and blows up the exacta, trifecta and supers. But I also know I overlook a lot of important information and if I can, so can anyone else. Therefore, no one should bet any of my picks because I think they could or will win, but rather, each person has the option of going back and reviewing my picks or dismissing them as I have no clue what I am talking about. It will not hurt my feelings either way. I am only concerned about the way I bet and the opportunity I give myself to make serious money. And that should be your priority, too.

1st Race: Maiden-- 3 YOs & Up--- Purse $90,000--- 7 Furlongs:

5) Ahead Of Plan(1-1) looks like the one to beat as he makes his first start this year. He led throughout until caught near the wire in his first lifetime start last year. Works are good and the experience he gain in that start should get him home first. His sire, Big Drama, was extremely tough to beat in sprints

6) Four Ten(6-1) should be the main threat to the favorite. Making his first lifetime start, his sire is Curlin, who everyone should be familiar with, but his dam, Any Limit, is a multiple G2 & G3 SW of $659,768, mostly in sprints.

3)Double Orb(8-1) will be my choice for third. There looks like there is an abundant of speed in here and he has good enough works where he should be able to at least pick up tiring horses.

7)Sneakness(6-1) is the only horse entered that has raced this year and he now adds blinkers, so he could possibly get a piece.

Bets: Ex Box 5-6, Tri Box 3-5-6, .10 Super box 3-5-6-7.

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2nd Race: Maiden---Restricted To NY Breds--- 3 YO & Up Fillies--- Purse $72,000--- 6 Furlongs Inner Turf:

6) Funderella(20-1) will be my choice to WP. Her sire, D'Funnybone, is a multiple G2 SW of $686,700 on dirt but the reason for taking a chance on her is her broodmare sire, City Zip. I know very little about her trainer, other than he trains mostly NY breds and runs mostly at Aqueduct & Finger Lakes. However, he seems to do better on grass or when he ships to run on Presque Isle AWT, which is similar to grass. His stats are 13% winning and 40% in the money lifetime, not bad for training cheap stock.

9) Andretta(9-2) will be my choice for second. She has ran 2nd 4 times in 7 lifetime starts but was beaten by the favorite in here in her only start this year. But I will take her over the favorite because she has proven she can rate and she will not have to pressure the pace like she had to in her 1st start this year.

7) J J Jen (6-1) will be my choice for third. She made her first career start in the Andretta race last out, broke slowly and was making up ground lat. Her sire, Teuflesburg, sports the same sire as Scat Daddy and J J Jen's dam family has sprinter speed sprinkled throughout her pedigree. With a slightly break break, which is expected, she could easily blow by this field, though I like my top two choices better.

4) Prisoner's Dilemma(5-2) is the morning line favorite and is the one to catch, but looks like their are several first time starters who should ensure a lively pace.

Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 6-9, Tri Box 6-7-9, .10 Super Box 4-6-7-9, Super Key 6 with 4-6-9 with 4-6-9 with 4-6-9.

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Race 3: Allowance O/C $80,000--- 3 YOs---- Purse $92,000--- 1 Mile Turf:

2) Shootin The Breeze(7-2) will be my choice to win. He is the class of this field thus far and should be ready to move on to the next set of conditions.

11) Kulik Bear(6-1) ran a nice race while graduating in his last and is facing winners for the first time. However, looks like his trainer picked a fairly soft spot and he should be a factor late. Owne Breeder of this horse purchased Curlin as a young 3 YO, along with several other nice horses.

9) Valid Point(2-1) is the morning line 2nd favorite and hails from Chad Brown's barn. On grass anywhere and especially in New York, I have to include most runners racing on grass from this barn and this one is no exception.

Bets: Ex Box 2-11, Tri Box 2-9-11.

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Race 4: Allowance O/C $40,000--- 3 YOs & Up--- Restricted To New York Breds--- Purse $80,000--- 6 1/2 Furlongs:

1)H-Man(2-1) crushed a NY bred field in his last in the same conditions and looks to repeat, which he should against these.

6) Bluegrass Express(10-1) is dropping from condition open bred allowances and returning to the class of his last win. His last two starts has shown he looks like he is returning to top form and could upset if top pick falters.

4) Empire Line(7-2) is returning to the races after a 15 month break and dropping out of state bred stakes races. He will also be racing as a first time gelding and has some good steady works. However, he will probably find this type of field a bigger challenge to overcome than the couple of stakes he ran in, especially being off so long.

3) The Caretaker(6-1) is also dropping from open bred condition allowance races and also returning to the class of his last win. While it looks like he is still off form, it may be because of the competition he has been facing. In with a good shot to upset.

Bets: Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-4-6, .10 Super Box 1-3-4-6, Super Key 1 with 3-4-6 with 3-4-6 with 3-4-6.

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Race 5: Bed O' Roses Inv S(G3)----- 3 YO & Up Fillies---- Purse $250,000---- 7 Furlongs:

3) Chalon(2-1) is the only real speed in this race and should control the pace up front. She has battled early in several of her races with the top female sprinters in the country but has yet to take the top prize in a graded stakes home. Should be her race for the taking.

7) Separationofpowers(5-2) tired in her first start of the year after pressing the pace. Now she has to carry an additional 4 lbs under the conditions of the race. So, she will probably have too sit a couple of lengths behind the top choice and try to chase her down with no real help.

1)Saguaro Row(15-1) is very sharp right now and looks to be the only threat to the top two. She has won her only 2 starts since being switched to Stidham's barn and her two works since her last indicates she is ready. While she could get the jump on the second pick and finish 2nd, she will have to run a race she has not proven she can to beat the top choice.

Bets: Ex Box 3-7, Ex Key 3 with 1-7, Tri Box 1-3-7, Tri Key 3-7 with 3-7 with 1.

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Race 6: Allowance O/C $100,000--- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $92,000---- 1 Mile Turf:

1)Awesome Saturday(12-1) is my choice to spring the upset. He has started 4 times on grass in his career, his first two starts in each of the last two years. While both his sire and broodmare sire ran in top races on dirt, both shows Danzig in their pedigrees, a top sprint/miler sire on grass in the world. He has shown he is not quite fast enough to beat good sprinters but does not have enough stamina good horses at distances at over a mile on dirt.

6)Gidu(8-1) is my 2nd choice, though he has been crossed entered into a much tougher spot on Saturday at Belmont. He has a much better chance of winning this race though. If he goes in here, he should set the pace and be tough to run down.

8) V.I.P. Code(30-1) will be my choice for 3rd. He has started once this year and that start was his 2nd lifetime on grass, but it was on a yielding grass course, so that start is a toss for me. He ran 2nd in his first start on grass in his career(odds 71-1), to the same horse that beat him in his last. His new trainer, Colletti, Jr has pulled off bigger surprises. I simply do not know if he has this one ready, though.

9)Have At It(10-1) is another I will use underneath in a super key. This distance seems to fit him better than the others who are dropping out of graded stakes into this race. His owner and his trainer both play this game at the top end also.

Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-6-8, Tri Box 1-6-9, .10 Super Box 1-6-8-9, Super Key 1 with 6-8-9 with 6-8-9 with 6-8-9.

Race 7: The Tremont---- 2 YOs --- Purse $150,000--- 5 1/2 Furlongs:

8) Rookie Salsa(4-1) has won his first two starts and is my choice to win his third straight. Both sire & broodmare sire banked over $1M each and both won just more than half their lifetime starts.

3)Now Is(20-1) is a maiden that finished third in his only lifetime start and that start came on grass. However, his sire, Sidney's Candy was very speedy on both dirt and grass and while his broodmare sire, Distorted Humor, is better known as a grass sire or off track sire, he ran against the best of his generation on dirt and usually was heard from in the stretch. His trainer, Gleaves, has been training since at least the mid 1980's.

7) Memorable(8-1) is my choice for 3rd. He broke his maiden in his first start and finished in a good time on a sloppy track. The race looks like it sets up for a horse who can rate and he looks most likely that can sit close and go when asked.

1)Theitalianamerican(10-1) looks like a cold stone closer as he came from far back at the top of the stretch to finish 2nd, beaten a head in a good time. However, it was more due to the fact the two front runners simply stopped but he did make up 4 lengths on the winner. With that start under his belt, he should break a little better but there are others in here that will get a huge jump if he lags too far back. Sire, Girolamo, hails from the same female family as Blue Grass Cat & Supersaver, among many other stakes winners.

Bets: WP 8, Ex Box 3-8, Tri Box 3-7-8, .10 Super Box 1-3-7-8, Super Key 8 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7.

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Race 8) The True North(G2)--- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $250,000---- 6 1/2 Furlongs:

5) Strike Power(8-1) is my choice to WP. After two wins in his first two career starts, he faced off with Promises Fulfilled in his next four starts, a horse he proved he could not battle and keep going because of the blistering pace. He was switched to grass against more experienced grass horses for his last start last year and he showed about as much as could be expected. His first start this year saw him cruise around GP track in 1:15 flat, which is 3/5 of a second of the track record that has stood since 2005(drf says 1/5 off). However, no one else in here can say they had to set 21 and change and 43 and change to have a chance to win any race, but he can but he could not. Doubtful if anyone else here can either.

4) Nicodemus(8-1) will be my choice for 2nd. His last saw him chase down a loose on the lead horse who returns in this race with no help in the slop. He should have help early in here and could win if a blistering pace develops. His sire is Candy Ride, who everyone should know but his broodmare sire is Tiger Ridge, a full brother to Summer Squall & a 1/2 brother to A.P. Indy. Look for him to improve as he gains more experience.

8) Do Share(5-1) will be my choice for third. While I could have gone with Whitmore in this spot, I decided Do Share is probably the one who is fitter at the moment, since he ran by Whitmore in their last.

7) Whitmore(7-2) will be my choice to complete the super.

Bets: WP 5, Ex Box 4-5, Tri Box 4-5-8, .10 Super Box 4-5-7-8, Super Key 5 with 4-7-8 with 4-7-8 with 4-7-8.

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Race 9: The New York(G2)---- 3 YO & UP Fillies And Mares---- Purse $600,000 ---- 1 1/4 Mile Inner Turf.

8)Homerique(6-5) towers over this field and should be one of the easiest winners of the day, if she run anywhere close to her past form. She ran in the two biggest races restricted to 3 YO fillies last year and finished 3rd both times while narrowly beaten.

3)Giant Zinger(15-1) is my choice to finish 2nd. Her last two starts. she was sent from the start because the going was soft and good. On the good turf, she set a slow enough pace to be close at the end and she was. On the soft grass, it really did not matter how slow she went, because most will tire badly anyways and she did, considering it was a 5 horse field. Now she shortens up a furlong and she should rate behind the early speed which is what she does in her best races.

4) Lady Montdore(10-1) will be my choice for third. She will try to sneak off to an easy early lead and if allowed to succeed will prove to be tough to run down, though the top choice should find it in her. Her sire is Medaglia D'Oro but her dam is Hystericalady, a multiple G1 winner of more than 2.3M on dirt, including a 2nd in the G1 BC Distaff in the slop. One mile on grass is too short for Lady Montdore but 1 3/8 miles has proven to be a little further than she looks like she wants to go. Now she gets her 2nd shot at 1 1/4 mile on grass but now has to beat Fourstar Crook's replacement.

1)Holy Helena(9-2) seems to always be around but usually finds the U.S. horses a little tougher to beat than her Canadian competition. Same should hold true against these.

Bets: Ex Box 3-8, Tri Box 3-4-8, .10 Super Box 1-3-4-8, Super Key 8 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4.

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10th Race: Belmont Gold Cup Inv(G2)--- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $400,000---- 2 Miles Turf.

6) Arklow(5-2) is my choice to win. This looks like one of easier spots he has found in a while and should prove tough to deny.

7)Hunter O'Riley(10-1) will be my choice to finish 2nd. He is making his 4th start this year after making one start all of last year. He was some back class, including a 5th in this race in 2017 in a field that came up fairly strong. Trainer is also better known for his grass runners than his dirt runners.

5)Highland Sky(15-1) will be my third choice. While he has not been a real impact in a distance turf for a while, he is working better than he has in a while, indicating he may be returning to his best form. While I really do not expect it, if he returns to his 3 YO form, he will upset this field. There is no Beach Patrol in here.

9)Canessar(9-2) is my fourth choice and the only one close to having a recent race good enough to beat my top choice. While I do not really like his two most recent races, he will be making his fourth start since he took a six month break, so maybe he is ready to return to form.

Bets: WP 7, Ex Box 6-7, Tri Box 5-6-7, .10 Super Box 5-6-7-9, Super Key 6 with 5-7-9 with 5-7-9 with 5-7-9.

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11th race: Starter Allowance $40,000---- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- Purse $55,000--- 6 Furlongs Inner Turf:

4) Ragtime Suzy(12-1) is my choice to win. First, Irad Ortiz has accept the mount and he seems to love to win the last race most days, especially in New York. Ragtime Suzy's dam, Category Seven, was a tough as nails competitor throughout her racing career and she performed better on grass than dirt. Her trainer, Bush, is also slightly better with his grass runners compared to his dirt runners.

1)Smokem Deb(3-1) will be my choice to finish 2nd. She has speed and will have to use it early because the rail is not the best place to be on the inner turf when it is firm. However, her trainer, Thomas, probably knows this as well as anyone and he should have her prepared.

5) Derby Day Jewel(10-1) will be my choice for third. Her trainer also trains my top pick and she is bred as good the top choice. In fact, Derby Day Jewel's sire, Get Stormy, is one of two G1 grass winner this trainer has trained in his career. Derby Day Jewel's dam, Jasmine Jewel, beat winners only once in her career but it was at 5 furlongs on grass where she came from last to first.

11) Ailish(8-1) will be my choice for 4th. She breaks from the far outside and the outside posts on the inner grass is as bad as breaking from the rail. So she will need to break alertly to get a good position before the turn to have a real shot at winning. Not impossible but very rare.

Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 1-4, Tri Box 1-4-5, .10 Super Box 1-4-5-11, Super Key 4 with 1-5-11 with 1-5-11 with 1-5-11.

Angles I Use! Like It Or Not, It's The System That Makes Me Steady Money.

1) Fourth Race Back After A Six Month Or Longer Break Or After Going Off Form. You will see a few horses win in their first start back after a long break, but the trainer has prepared the horse with a lot of works, either on track or on their private training track(which they do not have to report to any racing jurisdiction). All track requires all horses to have a race or a recorded workout within three months before they are allowed to run. Then you will see a few more horses win in their second start back after a six month break, but this indicates the trainer did all he could think would help to get the horse fit before racing, but the horse still needed a start. Same with their third start back, but maybe with a few lighter works. But their fourth start back after a six month or longer break, at least to me, is the best opportunity you will get to capitalize on a major score you will remember for years(and you will know it was not a guess but a well thought out plan). But I will emphasize that the trainer must at least give some indication that he knows a little about getting a horse to peak. 10% winning and 30% in the money(1,2,3) is the baseline I use. You will see many horses that looks like they are not improving after three starts and I would suggest waiting until they start showing some run before risking any money on them(I do when I am winning at the track, but not so much when I try to force them to run). But over 80% of them that wins or runs second in their fourth start back show some type of improvement in their third start back, but often not enough to get the masses to bet on them.
Horses that have tailed off after being in form for a few races are much harder to dictate, mostly because it is more difficult to decide when they are going off form, either immediately after winning or tough race and/or a gradual descend into going off form. After years of struggling to find a way to tell if they are going off form or simply had a bad race, I feel I have learn enough to sometimes give me a clue to which one they are indicating. But there is no set angle that would help you that is explainable, so I can only suggest that you will pick up little tidbits at a time by learning to read the running lines of each horse that would help you immensely. Watching how fast they are running or the pace is will not tell you anything as far as conditioning is concerned. Only running lines can give you that information. Time and class is important after you decide if the horse is in peak form but the best horse will only take your money if he is not in shape and/or going off form.
Also, most trainers realize when their horse is not in top form by the way they are acting and/or working. But a trainer makes the bulk of his disposable income by getting horses to win. The fees he charges an owner to train their horse is enough to support his family and make a decent living, but the extras from winning purses are what most seeks on a daily basis. Most of the top trainers knows what it will take to get their horse(s) back to top fitness but they also know it will take weeks or months of steady hard works and/or racing to move their charge back to top condition.
Horses that had less than a five or six month break will usually not need four starts back after a brief freshening to regain his top form. Horses given a 2-3 month break between races on paper are often taken from the track to give a freshening, but the trainer, especially if he knows what he is trying to accomplish, will still work the horse on a private training track(usually his own) and these works are not required to be reported to race tracks because they are not recognized as official workouts. Trainers, however, are required to have at least one published workout and/or race within a three month period(used to be a 2 month period and maybe still is required at some tracks) before a horse is allowed to run again. Stewards are required to scratch any horse that does not meet this criteria and will fine trainers, if they believe he is intentionally negligent or trying to be deceitful.
2) Third Race After A Winning Effort Angle: This angle came from reading a book but was also mentioned in several seminars held by public handicappers and sportswriters in the 1980's. The idea was to help bettors become better handicappers and give them an angle that worked over and over. This angle suggested that horses would win in every third start while they are in form. The theory was the winning race would take enough out of them that it took 2 starts to regain their form. And while this angle seemed to produce over and over, the winning horses started losing their value because the more that learned about this angle, the less value it offered. But since the seminars was phrased out mostly because of a few deceitful public handicappers, this angle returned to producing good to solid returns.
However, after I spent a couple of years charting this angle, I noticed there was more value in betting these types when the horse throws a bad race after winning, then runs an improved effort in his next start but finishing no better than third but no better than fourth is even more preferred. The odds are better because most will think the horse ran third or fourth because "someone had to run there". The opposite way, where the horse ran third or second after a winning effort, then throws a bad race is more likely an indication they have gone off form, from my research. Also, their odds will usually not be worth the value you should be seeking, if you want to win long term. Everybody has days where it best to stay away from the track because no matter what you do or believe in, your horse(s) will not perform up to your expectations. When a horse runs two poor races in his next 2 races after his winning effort, I will usually not consider him at all unless he is dropping below his winning level or took a steep step up(two or more classes) in class in those two starts. More likely, he has gone off form but when he has not, you can expect and will get box car odds. However, when he takes only a small step up in those two starts, then enters back in his winning class level in his third start back, I will make this type beat me. The reason is most trainers will not drop a horse back down if he feels he is still fit but even, if he does, the odds will be lower than what I want to risk money on.
Also when I first charted this angle, it stipulated a horse had to win his third start back. But after watching several who ran a 2nd or 3rd in his third start back and winning that 3rd start and paying humongous odds, I decided to start considering these types of horses with this angle, though I have never seen it written or even implied it might be effective. And this is where I get many longshot type winners because most think his close 2nd or 3rd is the best he could do while in form, so what should be different today. Actually, the horse actually ran his best race in most occasions, but he was simply beaten that day. And he too could need 2 races to get back to his top fitness level. The whole idea of this angle is betting a horse while he is in form, but a hard race will usually take enough conditioning out of most horses that it takes two races to regain his top level of fitness(and even more if he is knocked off form or better known as tired and sluggish).
3) Third In Last Start When Beaten By 2 Lengths Or More By The Winner And Second Place Finishers. This angle was returning boxcar winners and place horses in their next start at GP in 2018. And I have not focused enough on GP this year to determine if this angle is still producing there. Most bettors in the know will consider this type of horse in their next start if the horse is beaten less than 4 lengths when third, but almost none will consider this type if he is beaten by more than 5 lengths. But I will and I do. Actually the best odds using this type of angles comes when the horse is beaten between 5-10 lengths by the winner, regardless of how far the 2nd place horse finishes behind the winner.
The whole idea behind this angle is the jockey may realize that the winner will be almost impossible to catch, so he will ease up on his horse to save a little punch(energy) for his next race. While he will attempt to make it look like he is trying, due to many bettors who complains he is not even trying to win(which he isn't), he has to make an attempt to make it look like a hard try or face possible disciplinary action from the stewards of that track. While I have some other information or rules that would be helpful to understand this angle more, I will not go there due to many who believes the internet is the best source to get their facts, though it is spotted with half truths and/or simply wrong information. I am not about arguing who is right or wrong, I simply am out to make the most money possible with the least amount risked.
4)Speed To The Top Of The Stretch Before Fading In The Stretch Run Angle: This is an angle that I have used with a lot of success thru the years. It simply means as a horse is starting to peak into his best condition, he will tend to hang around longer than any of his most recent races. When I first posted this angle, there were several handicappers on this sub-reddit that asked if it was better betting a horse that faded slightly or did a steady fade in the stretch run. Since I have used both on occasions(but not in the same race), I really did not have an answer at that time.
But when I was looking thru the angles that I had charted many years ago, I had written in my notes the type I preferred. As I have stated, I used both types, but the ones who did a steady fade after staying within two lengths of the lead until the top of the stretch is both more reliable and has higher odds in their next start. The reason a steady fade works better is simple. A jockey may realize his horse is finished trying for that day and will not persevere with trying to win that race, though he has to give a half-hearted effort or get blame for not trying to do his best(which he will be accused of regardless of effort given if horse is heavily bet). Horse that fades slightly are most often giving their maximum effort because the jockey still believes he can coax the horse into winning that day and will often take a little more condition out of that horse that will hurt the horse more than help it in its next start.
Also, I will not bet a horse back that has a clear lead until the top of the stretch and then fades slightly or steadily. This type of horse is most likely a quitter and will stop on his own on most occasions, with or without early pressure. But most horses will face some type of pressure at some point in the race. And when I have previously decided to use this type, I am often left wondering why I thought a horse who faced a little pressure and faded would do better when he is facing even more early pressure.
5)Trip Handicapping. This is an important angle to consider. While I first read about this angle in several of Beyers books, it was the first thing I realized about racing that could be important and I used from day one of my handicapping career. But seeing it in print only confirmed what I believe was often the difference between winning and losing in a lot of races. Noting when a horse has to check and then rebuild speed, get caught behind a wall of horses and having to ease up to wait for running room, horses losing a lot of ground by having to go wide to keep his momentum, bumping and getting squeezed out of the gate, even jockeys trying to time the break and causing the horse to break flat footed(to regain balance) are all part of trip handicapping and can be the difference from a solid race or a ho-hum effort. Jockeys making the wrong split second decision whether to stay inside or try to circle the field also has a major effect on the outcome of races and even top jockeys are prone to making a mistake.
And on the flip side, noticing when a horse got the perfect set up and won because he had a perfect trip(otherwise, he lets other do the hard work and picks up the pieces after the front runners tires) will give you opportunities to make a big score if you learn to recognize the situation. Horses rarely get two perfect type trips in a career, much less two races in a row
6) Bloodlines--- Bloodlines is probably the most mis-understood of all angles out there and that is because there is very few experts that had actually done any type of research, other than copy the sayings of a few earlier experts and passing them along. It requires more study than a five minute glance but for those willing to learn, it can make a world of difference to your bankroll.
For example, experts have always consider that Eclipse of 1764 was the original carrier of the large heart gene. Sure, he won all 18 of his lifetime starts, but the biggest field he faced in those 18 races were 4 other horses twice(most of his other races had one challenger or none). But they are wrong and here is why. As a sire, the original Eclipse never finished as the top sire in any year he stood, finishing no better than second to Herod and his son Highflyer. Every one of his top runners had the Herod or Matchem in their dam families and they were the two stallions that combined to form the large heart gene(Match 'Em grandson & Herod's grand daughter(thru Highflyer) formed one line and then Highflyer was bred to Matchem's daughter to produce another daughter that form another line that displayed the large heart gene). Even then, only two of Eclipse sons made a lasting impression on the breed but it was not because of him but rather whom their sons or grandsons were bred to a couple of generations later(Herod/Matchem cross).
From 1764 thru 1855, there were supposedly 22 horses that had the name of Eclipse when they first race but another name was added after their career began to help bettors separate one Eclipse from another. However, the Eclipse of 1855 held that name only throughout his racing career and stallion career. He won 5 of 9 starts on the race track but one of his son(Alarm) was responsible for the Domino sire line. This is also the Eclipse that a biopsy was performed on after his death and it was determined his heart was twice the size of a normal horse's heart. But this Eclipse's dam(Gaze) was inbred 5x5 to Penelope and Prunella(dam of Penelope) also showed up in her 5th generation. Penelope also showed up in the sire line of this Eclipse in the 5th generation, making it 4 crosses with a large heart gene carrier.
I am adding all of this above to hopefully make you realize that experts can be wrong also, especially if they did not do research for them shelves and only copy old material that is often not accurate. A computer is only as smart as the person who puts the info into it.
I use bloodlines several different ways. First, it helps me to determine which surface a horse will most likely prefer. If a sire made the bulk of his money(or even a better indicator is wins and in the money(1,2,3) on grass throughout his career and did little or nothing on dirt, then I will be reluctant to bet one of his foals until the trainer gets them on the right surface. Most horses will prefer one surface over another, though there are some who will run well on both. Even these types will tend to run slower on one surface over the other when you compare their style, pace and running times.
Then I will take a look at the sire's best distance during his racing career. This is not necessarily the longest distance or the shortest distance the sire won at, but the distance where I feel he runs his top race. I also look for the type of runner the sire was, whether that be front running speed, slightly off the pace, and one who liked to gather him self and make a late run. Some horses are naturally gifted at breaking on cue while others tend to break flat footed and takes a stride or two to get going. I'm sure most of you have seen or heard of a horse hitting the gate at the start. This occurs mostly in young horses, such as 2 YOs because the jockey will usually try to time the break to get a head start which is huge in short races, but not as important in mid distance races or longer. If he succeeds he looks like a genius but when he fails, it usually causes the horse all chance of winning. However, just because a sire won a graded stakes or several graded stakes in his career does not mean he will sire even one stake winner, much less dozens of them. But it does give you a clue as to what type of running style his foals will have. If he had blazing speed from the gate, then most likely his best foals will display similar speed. The top trainers normally takes a look at a sire's natural ability and try to copy that style with his foals.
Next, I take a look at the dam and if she has enough starts, then I follow the same procedure with her as I do the sire. I determine which surface the dam favor, her running style, and her best distance. If I feel she did not have enough starts to get a clear picture and/or she had a poor trainer, then I will use the broodmare sire(her sire) instead. While she too may not produce a foal that was as good as her or will compete in the same class she did, their running style and preferred surface will usually be similar unless the trainer teaches her foals a different method of running that he believes will make the foal a better runner. However, most trainers will not switch anything at all in the foals, in fear of making them less profitable for the owners and them too.
These are the six major angles that I look for on a consistent basis. I use every one of these angles to help me narrow down my choices the quickest way possible while pointing me to live horses that will lead me to huge payoffs. I am not interested in betting when payoffs are low because that will mean you are spinning your wheels and wasting time, just trying to stay even or making just enough money to get to try again the next day or week. When I bet, I strive for making enough money to cover all my bets for a couple of months, off one solid score. Anything more is simply added rewards that I put away and use on other things I enjoy. But I started out the same as most handicappers, betting a lot of low odds horses and seeing them get beat much more often than they were winning. I got tired of spending hard earned cash and having nothing to show for it. But I eventually got the message and I realized that I could go thru life trying the same old things that were not working well enough for me to succeed and hoping for a different outcome one day or I could do research and pick up new ideas that would make me a better handicapper. I chose the latter and while it was hard work and continues to be hard work, the rewards are much better this way than my old way of handicapping.
FYI, my 2 1/2 month weekly winning streak ended today. All week long, rain was predicted in New Orleans, so I decided to concentrate on Oaklawn Park yesterday(which I broke even for the day) but was 0-5 today at Gulfstream Park today, but missed an exacta by a neck(1st & 3rd) and a trifecta by 3/4 of a length(1st, 3rd & 4th with only 3 horses I had boxed) in the second race. A 9% winning trainer with Jose Ortiz on it ran 2nd). Bet the third place finisher to WP. Then in the seventh race, my picks ran second & third in the exacta but was beaten by the same horse that beat them in their last out in near wire to wire fashion. However, she was picking up 7 lbs off that win and the third place finisher was dropping 4 lbs, making it an 11 lb swing. So I thought these two would turn the tables on the winner, especially with Blamed running, but she decided to rate like she has been willing to do previously and shallowed the speed heading into the stretch to win easily. I bet the 44-1 lonshot to WP so I made some of my money back, just not enough. Oh well, I guess you can not have everything go your way.
But had I simply stayed at the track I normally bet, things would most likely turned out much better. No rain fell as predicted in New Orleans and the track had returned to fast and firmed. And just as FG had done two months prior, they started the card off with three longshots(this time 15-1+ winning) and the P3 paid 2 of 3 and the P4 paid off for 3 of 4 winners, though all were pickable using the angles I mentioned above(can not believe I did not even look until after the fact). But then again, I probably would have let the probability of rain affect my thinking and ended up with an even worse day.
The 16-1 winner of the first race ran 2nd in its third start back in N/W 2 allowance and had dropped into a $15,000 claiming for N/W of two lifetime in its last race on the grass but ran respectable, and was entered at the same level and surface today.
The 20-1 winner of the second race was running for the fourth time since its last big effort, a second while beaten by 9 lengths by a horse that was 1-10 that day. At first glance, his last race looks like he was not ready to win today, but upon a closer look, he was less than 2 lengths behind the pace setter until the far turn when encounter traffic problems and faded. Switching from a jockey who has struggled to Gabriel Saez, a winner of the Ky Oaks in 2008 and brother of Luis Saez, certainly did not hurt his chance. Actually, he jumped out front and never look back, pulling away from the 1-2 favorite in the stretch.
The 21-1 winner of the 3rd race was also ridden by Gabriel Saez, but he was a grandson of War Front, who I know is one of the top turf horses breeding today. His sire, Data Link, was a G1 grass winner at one mile at Keeneland and this race was a maiden special weight, a far cry from G1 competition. He also was making his 2nd lifetime start, the first a turf sprint where he broke slowly and could not make up any ground on a soft turf course at Keeneland(most can not, especially in a turf sprint).

Trifecta Box Horse Racing Betting The Trifecta Box bet is the same as the Straight Trifecta bet except that it includes all possible win, place and show combination among the three chosen horses. There are six possible ways for three horses to finish, therefore the total bet would be $12 instead of $2 ($2 x 6 bets = $12). Trifecta Box Bet. A common way to play a Trifecta is to box three horses. A $1 box using #1,#2, and #3 would cost $6. The three horses you selected must finish in the top three spots for you to win. A four-horse $1 box would cost $24. Often a better way to play is called a Trifecta key. In this wager, you use one or more “key” horses. A trifecta box bet, or a boxed trifecta, is a trifecta in which a total of 3 horses are chosen. Then, the bettor triumphs if the 3 picked horses place first, but they can finish in any order . Placing a boxed bet is pretty much the same as placing a standard trifecta wager on all of the 6 combinations of outcomes for these chosen horses. Even though the minimum bet for a boxed trifecta is only $1, you will need to pay a minimum of $6 if you select three horses. Example: Let’s say you select horse #8, #6, and #3 to finish in any order with a boxed trifecta bet. You will need to pay $6 as the three horses can finish in six different combinations. A Trifecta box on three selections costs $12 instead of $2 for the straight Trifecta. A Trifecta box can cover more than three horses. But the increase in possible combinations increases the cost. With four horses, for example, there are 24 possible combinations. The cost to cover them all is $48. Trifecta Key Box Horse Racing Betting

#TheAction: The Exacta Bet

A box, in horse betting, translates into "any order" wins. So, if you like the 3 and 6 horse in a particular race and you box them, you cash if either the 3 wins and 6 finishes second OR if the 6 ... What is a Trifecta Bet in Horse Racing (Definition of Trifecta - Horse Race Betting) - Duration: 1:58. WagerTalk TV: Sports Betting Picks and Tips 1,031 views 1:58 Expert handicapper Andy Serling shows Wendy Bounds the ins and outs of betting the ponies. Take notes and maybe you'll win a few bucks this weekend. I'll Hav... Betting 101 - Trifecta Box Last time the girls traveled in suitcases. This time they get much more room inside of a giant box! Jesse and Terra mail them to another state. Thanks so muc...