Sports Betting Odds Calculator Odds Shark

If the probability of loosing a sport bet is 3/4 in every game, what is the right way to calculate the probability of loosing two bets with the same odds two times in a row ? and three times ? and so on ? [serious]

I hope my question is clear enough
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Let's share our favourite resources with each other

I'm making this post because I don't think I have very good resources and would like more, but I'll get the ball rolling:
GENERAL BETTING:
SOCCER:
BASKETBALL:
REQUEST: I'd love to know some basketball blogs that preview games from an X and Os match-up, or data perspective, even if it's only specific to one team.
submitted by knxledddge to sportsbook [link] [comments]

We Have a 15% Chance to Win the Series, and How to Simply Calculate the Odds

Game Odds

Here is a site that has betting odds on NBA games (I'm not affiliated. There are many other options). The American odds are -235 for the Clippers and +194 for the Mavericks. You can use this odds converter to convert that into a probability, in this case 70% and 34% respectively. The reason it adds up to more than 100% is because betting sites add in some margin where they actually make their money.
​

Series Odds

Now you know how to calculate the results for any given game, for any sports with odds. Great! Now how do we calculate the series? There are two ways.
  1. You find the series odds (-500/83.3% and +360/21.7%)
  2. You assume that each game we have about the same chance of winning and we plug that into this calculator under 'Probability of success on a single trial'. We also plug in 4 for number of successes and 7 for number of trials. We'll find the answer in 'Cumulative probability:P(X >= x)' and when you use 32%, you find that we have a ~15% of winning
​

Additional Info

If any are interested, I can explain why this works, otherwise, I'll leave this here for you all to play around with. Maybe you think we have a 40% to win each game. Or maybe you want to see the Blazer's chance of winning the series (approximately the same chance). Also, if there is interest, I could explain how to do this for a player's shots to see how hot or cold they were on a given night.
Edit: u/lakersbestinleague brought up a good point. Why is it that when I calculate the series odds the first way, it says 20%, but when I calculate it the 2nd way it has 15%. The second way makes some assumptions, namely that the probability of us winning each game is the same, and that the probability doesn't depend on what's happened in earlier games. What this discrepancy indicates to me is that we should expect to have a higher win rate in other games. Perhaps the betting market still feels there is a home court advantage?
Edit 2: After our loss tonight, assuming the same 32% chance of winning a game, our chance of winning the series goes down to ~8.5%. (plug in .32, 6, and 4 to the calculator)
​

Sources

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculatoodds-converter.html https://www.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sports/navigation/830.1/10107.3 https://www.stattrek.com/online-calculatobinomial.aspx
submitted by EagerMonkey to Mavericks [link] [comments]

Bankroll Management Part I

Bankroll management is arguably the most important concept to understand to maximize your chances of success (or rather, minimize your chances of failure).
Consider this scenario: You magically become a world-class handicapper and can win 55% of your bets on -110 lines. Did you know that with a $1,000 bankroll and flat betting $100 per game at -110 lines, you would go broke ~14.0% of the time after 100 bets? After 1,000 bets the chances of you going broke are a more staggering ~31.0%.
Why does this happen? Despite a positive expected value, you’re betting too much. And this gives you a high risk of ruin.
‍Kelly Criterion
With a 55% win rate on -110 lines, the Kelly Criterion states that 5.5% of your bankroll is the ideal wager size to maximize the median return of your portfolio. So, what if we flat bet $55 instead, which represents 5.5% of our bankroll. What’s our risk of ruin then?
After 100 bets? ~2.0% After 1,000 bets? ~13.0%.
Better, but still significant risk of ruin.
Some might be surprised to see any risk of ruin at a 5.5% bankroll allocation. One of the assumptions, however, that the Kelly Criterion relies on is that bet sizes are a percentage allocation of your portfolio and not a fixed amount. Among sports bettors, a fixed bet amount is frequently referred to as a bet “unit”.
‍Bet Units vs Bet Allocation
Record: 72-53 +13.7 units
Patriots -7.5 2 units
Sports bettors love to measure their performance or display their picks as a function of “units”. Most people use it and because of its widespread adoption, it’s easy to communicate between parties. Since it’s become the de facto unit of measurement for sports bettors, it is widely accepted that the best way to practice bankroll management is to 1) determine your wager size and 2) never deviate from that bet size.
Let me explain the risks behind that strategy and why Cleat Street doesn’t recommend it.
‍Flat Betting $55: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
We all know how to calculate the expected value, or EV, of a single bet. All you need is three inputs:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): $50
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -$55
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
So - if we want to determine the EV of 1,000 bets, can we just multiply $2.75 x 1,000 and get an EV of $2,750?
If you had unlimited funds, then yes. While there is variance around our expected win percentage, our ending bankroll would be normally distributed with a median of $3,750 ($1,000 starting bankroll + $2,750 EV). Without the constraint of going broke, the distribution of the ending bankroll looks as follows:
Bankroll distribution
However, most of us don’t have unlimited funds. We are constrained by our bankroll, so we must account for the possibility that we lose our entire bankroll at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000. As a result, we might not get the chance to finish making all of the bets.
Monte Carlo Simulation – Flat Betting
To determine the likelihood and impact of going broke at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000, we can use a Monte Carlo simulation. We simulated the 1,000 bet opportunities 10,000 times resulting in the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: ~13.0%
Expected Return: ~4.8%
Median Return: ~ $2,645
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~265%
Without the benefit of an unlimited bankroll, the risk of ruin decreases our EV by nearly 5%, decreasing from $2,750 to ~$2,645. Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, our median ending bankroll is ~$3,645 but has a distribution as displayed below:
Ending Bankroll Distribution
Bet Allocation of 5.5%: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
When you bet a percentage of your bankroll, the expected value calculation changes a bit. Your payoff outcomes are now framed as a percentage:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): 5.0%
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -5.5%
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
To determine the EV of 1,000 bets, however, we cannot just multiply 0.275% x 1,000 and get an EV of 275%. This is because each bet compounds on one another when you are betting a percentage of your bankroll.
Ok – so instead we determine the expected value by saying that you expect to win 550 bets (55% x 1,000) and lose 450 bets (45% x 1,000) and calculate by compounding the returns as follows:
Median Calculation
The above computation reflects the median of the distribution of outcomes as well as the most likely outcome. Yes, the most likely outcome is that you win exactly 550 games, which would generate returns of $2,967. However, this scenario happens only 2.54% of the time. [1] The rest of the time, you either win more than 550 games or less than 550 games.
[1] Binomial probability inputs: Prob (Success): 55%, Num. Trials 1,000, Num. Successes, 550.
Binomial Probability Calculator
We get the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: 0.0%
Expected Return: 5.0%
Median Return: $2,967
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~297%
“So you’re telling me, I have no chance of losing my entire bankroll, and I can increase my EV? That sounds too good to be true.”
You’re right – the above metrics are true, but they don’t tell the whole story. Although the risk of ruin is zero, there are many scenarios where you could still walk away a loser. To properly assess, we need to take a closer look at the distribution of outcomes.
‍Lognormal Distribution
The returns generated by using a bet allocation bankroll management strategy follow a lognormal distribution. A lognormal distribution is frequently used to describe the price of financial assets and effectively states that 1) the lowest that your bankroll can go is zero, and 2) your returns have a long-tail to the right.
Visually, the distribution of the ending bankroll after 1,000 bets looks odd when plotted on a linear scale:
‍5.5% Bet Allocation - Linear Scale
When plotted on a logarithmic scale, however the distribution appears normal (hence the name “lognormal”):
5.5% Bet Allocation - Logarithmic Scale
As you can see in the distribution above, there are scenarios where you still walk away a loser after 1,000 bets. In fact, betting 5.5% of your bankroll in this scenario will lead you to losing money approximately 20 percent of the time. To properly assess the risk-return profile, we’ll have to take a deeper look at the full distribution of outcomes in Part II.
What we’ll find is that although the Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes median wealth in the long run, there are still considerable risks that may not make it ideal for most bettors. An underlying assumption is that it requires you to know your true win probability, which is impossible. In Part II, we explore Kelly Criterion in further depth and show how you can use the same principles to tailor a bankroll management strategy that better fits your risk appetite.
Bankroll Management Part II will be posted tomorrow
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GME bears and naysayers, let's have a discussion.

The general bear sentiment I see here is "hurr durr another Blockbuster" without much arguments besides that. Some even compare it to NKLA (a fraud company with no business under it besides pretty renders). I'm very bullish on GME, mainly for the short squeeze of a lifetime, but a solid argument could still be made for a company itself.
Here I'll try to list main bear points, comment if I forgot something, I'll add it to the post. My goal is to build the most precise model of what is happening and I do not want to blindly follow the hype train, so please criticize what you think is wrong and together we'll find the truth.
1. The squeeze already happened, from 5 to 15
Facts: most shorts were in at 7$ and therefore were slightly underwater at 9. Yes, we've had huge volume during Thursday and Friday and one may say that all shorts covered already. However, half the volume (about 50m) during those couple of days were new shorts (source: http://regsho.finra.org/regsho-Index.html). So if we even accept the premise that all 60m shorts covered we still have 50m shorted which is close to 100% float again. The reality is that there are probably quite a number of old bears still holding the line and who are heavily underwater.
This is what REAL short squeeze looks like: VW Oct 2008 The Great Squeeze
Also, look at shares available to short: https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME
2. Gamestop has a dying business model and is not going to last long-term
Well yes, but you're looking at what Gamestop was. They are actively trying to turn the company's course around right now with a help from Ryan Cohen who at the very least has an excellent experience in managing and growing retail business. In itself it might be a questionable bullish case, but the market has a GameStop bankruptcy priced-in at 7$ and a perspective of a turn-around is a massive deviation from that common sentiment.
About the long-term thing: go to fucking /investing for that. Nobody's telling that this company is going to be a beast in 20 years time. The main point is that they're not dying, possibly growing somewhat and have an enormous potential for a huge squeeze. The following year or two after the consoles release are going to be explosive as it has been every time before, which is also enough time for management to come up with new ways for a company to live besides selling games and consoles.
My wild guesses: PC bangs, e-sports involvement, gaming stuff (I know they already are, but there is a lot of space to grow in that direction)
Michael Burry involvement is also a somewhat convincing argument.
3. Strong balance sheets
You are seriously telling me that a market cap of 700m$ is adequate for a company which generated 6.5b$ revenue in 2019, having 2.3b$ in assets and 700m$ with cash on hands? And a company during the new console season which historically drive the price up to the tits
4. Physical sales are decreasing compared to digital
Yes, in percentages. But you should also account for the overall growth of the gaming market, and an argument can be made that total numbers are not decreasing that much. Now excuse me on this one, I can't manage to find exact stats in numbers and not in percentages (I've seen it a while ago somewhere on this sub), so if anyone has it please post.
Summary:
(edit) positions: GME 10/16 20c just to gamble, 10/30 12c, 11/20 20c, 1/15 13c/9p risk reversal. Will load up more the following few days if it will trade sideways and IV drops.
(edit 2) note however that going all in on FDs is pure retardation. Pick longer dates calls ffs
submitted by eblozavr322 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

United’s hopeless pursuit of Jadon Sancho – the real story (theathletic.com)

Hi Folks,
Throwaway account here providing the full Article: https://theathletic.com/2115449/2020/10/06/manchester-united-jadon-sancho-transfer-window/ since it's behind a paywall.
United’s hopeless pursuit of Jadon Sancho – the real story
Laurie Whitwell, David Ornstein and more (Other contributor: Raphael Honigstein)
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer identified Jadon Sancho as his principal target this summer in what was seen as a vital opportunity for squad enhancement following Champions League qualification.
But after 10 weeks of opportunity for talks, Sancho remains a Borussia Dortmund player and the simple truth is that United never got close.
The Athletic has been told that Solskjaer urged Ed Woodward to keep trying, and financial concerns meant other signings were pushed to the periphery until the final 48 hours of the window.
Donny van de Beek arrived on September 2 but sources say United waited to pull the trigger on other purchases until it became clear Sancho was not arriving.
So for the third window in a row, United were active on deadline day, completing the signings of Edinson Cavani, Alex Telles, Amad Diallo and Facundo Pellistri. In January, it was Odion Ighalo, hot on the heels of Bruno Fernandes. Last summer, the club were trying to sign Mario Mandzukic or Paulo Dybala.
The cause for this year’s unedifying sense of late freneticism appears to centre on the priority given to the Sancho move and, fundamentally, a misunderstanding by United of Dortmund’s intentions.
Essentially, United did not believe Dortmund would stay firm on the price-tag of €120 million or their deadline of August 10, embarking on a long-running game of poker without realising that the Bundesliga club weren’t even at the table. United effectively sat still in the hope Dortmund would blink first and place the call they were ready to do business. Intermediaries attempted to broker a deal but were waiting on United to move, which did not happen.
Some sources felt Woodward was holding until the last moment to place an all-in bet, giving the impression of resistance in the ambition of driving the price down. But instead, United kept their chips and stayed true to their valuation. By never ruling themselves out of the deal though, United’s actions seriously annoyed Dortmund’s executives, who became even more entrenched in their position as the weeks went on.
When Dortmund sporting director Michael Zorc stood at the side of their training pitches on August 10, the first day of pre-season, and said the decision on Sancho staying was “final”, one alarmed United director made a call to check whether the statement was genuine. The response was along the lines of, “What did you expect? You knew the terms.”
Hans-Joachim Watzke, Dortmund’s chief executive, is said to have personally phoned United at the start of the summer and explained very clearly how much the deal would cost and when it needed to be done by.
United privately argue that the continued conversations after that point, conducted via intermediaries Emeka Obasi and Marco Lichtsteiner, were evidence of Dortmund remaining open to a sale. But the reason for the involvement of agents is hotly disputed.
United insist Dortmund wanted talks done through Obasi and Lichtsteiner, and some believe this was so Dortmund could stick to their public stance while having a backchannel to a potential resolution. United held lengthy discussions and made known what they were willing to pay, which held a firm limit given the current economic environment.
Sources say Dortmund reject that idea and deny they ever appointed agents. Previous deals with Arsenal and Barcelona for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Ousmane Dembele respectively were based on face-to-face meetings with club counterparts.
On this occasion, they believed that they had provided the fee to United and since Woodward failed to match it by August 10, there was no need for further direct discussion.
United felt there was tacit encouragement to keep lines of communication going but the only way they could have got the deal on after that date was with a “crazy” offer along the lines of Neymar’s £200 million transfer to Paris Saint-Germain. Sources told The Athletic that if United had come in with an offer of €140-£150 million then Dortmund might have done business. Conscious of their reputation having set their position out so publicly, Dortmund would have been able to sell that as a turnaround made in extraordinary circumstances.
United argued that the €120 million price tag did not take into account the financial hit caused by the pandemic. Executives genuinely felt it should come down, given the full total of the transfer was potentially enormous. The Athletic has been told initial calculations rose to €250 million including wages and agent fees. United made what has been described as a “calm decision” to refuse that amount and felt vindicated when the government postponed the return of fans to stadiums costing the club another £50 million in lost revenue.
But it is understood that Dortmund originally planned for the €120 million as a “minimum” — and ideally wanted nearer the €147 million fee that Barcelona paid for Dembele — so it was an adjustment to even consider a bid that could reach that figure in installments.
In any case, United never got near to that guaranteed sum. One offer, submitted by chief negotiator Matt Judge through the agents in the final week of September, amounted to £80 million, plus add-ons. Once passed to Watzke, it was immediately rejected as too little too late. There was a sense at the Westfalenstadion that United did not take Dortmund’s demands seriously or were acting without full intentions to actually complete the signing.
All proposals were said to have been relayed to Dortmund via the agents knowing full well they would be turned down.
Sancho himself is believed to have felt undervalued by the offers and even if United had placed the right bid late on, it is understood he would have questioned why it did not come earlier.
Sancho was never going to agitate for a move unless United came close to Dortmund’s demands. Illness kept him out of the squad for Saturday’s 4-0 win over Freiburg but Sancho then attended a house party in London with Tammy Abraham and Ben Chilwell, in breach of lockdown rules, and will join up late with England as a result. He has since apologised.
The forward was prepared to join United but not “desperate” to move this summer. He was relaxed either way. That was the sense drawn by England team-mates at the September camp.
That being said, others close to United were under the impression he “would walk to Old Trafford”. Sancho texted Marcus Rashford about United, and the pair were said to be excited at the prospect of linking up. Sancho has many friends in Manchester from his time at Manchester City.
Other United players were in touch too and so was Solskjaer, who as long ago as January wanted to ascertain Sancho’s willingness to join and to get a personal sense of his character. Having privately acknowledged the possibility of a sale, Dortmund were aware of the conversations, which are standard for most transfers.
There had actually been dialogue with Sancho’s representatives dating back to when he left Manchester City for Dortmund in 2017, but talks commenced in earnest this year once United had secured Champions League football on July 26.
United’s exit from the Europa League was disappointing, but some close to the club felt it would at least reinforce the impetus for signings — a reminder to the Glazer family that funding was required to take the next step. “But extending the window to October 5 is probably the worst thing for Solskjaer,” said a source. “I can see United taking talks to the wire again.”
There were some raised eyebrows at United over reports of Sancho’s lateness to training and fines for breaching lockdown regulations in Germany. But United viewed the indiscretions as attributable to a desire to move on from Dortmund. “We’ll make Carrington a place where he wants to come to work every day,” one member of staff told a colleague.
Solskjaer had determined Sancho would be his main target, with one source saying in April: “We are ready to go, we know who we want, the people at the top are now certain.”
But that conviction was not found in the pursuit, with Dortmund soon frustrated at United’s reluctance to commit to a fee or structure. There were allegations of “freestyling”, a refusal to provide a top line, and when pushed for answers, Judge suggested the issue lay with “the owners”. Agents proposing other players were told of a £50 million net spend budget. Executives feel they have a responsibility to protect the long-term strength of the club by not over-paying.
The Athletic has previously reported how Joel Glazer, in daily contact with Woodward, is involved in all major signings and paid particularly close attention to the Sancho deal. There were accusations of a split in opinion between the pair over the price to be sanctioned, with Woodward advocating a higher fee, but United insist board members were united on their view that €120 million was too much in the post-COVID-19 climate. Recruitment staff were told about a significant budget being allocated to Sancho but later the internal line back from Woodward was that the deal was “too much money”.
Privately United suggested the €120 million figure could be reached including some unrealistic bonuses, which may have allowed Dortmund to save face with a headline figure. Dortmund were resolute in their stance though and believed a higher price could be achieved next summer. The cause for their confidence was revealed when Zorc announced a previously unknown extension to Sancho’s contract, meaning it did not run out until 2023.
United insist they knew all those details and were for a long time frustrated by what they perceived to be the slow process of dealing with Dortmund through Obasi, Sancho’s agent, and Lichtsteiner, the brother of former Arsenal player Stephan. The two intermediaries are described as “very close”. Lichtsteiner previously assisted on the departures of Aubameyang and Dembele to Arsenal and Barcelona respectively, and has vast experience of difficult transfers. He is said to be well-regarded and very discreet with information.
United have in the past worked on deals through agents, and last summer placed an offer for the Newcastle United midfielder Sean Longstaff in this manner. Sources at Newcastle suspected this was so United had deniability if unsuccessful.
On other occasions, the technique has worked well. Woodward conducted the purchase of Juan Mata from Chelsea without one word to his counterparts at Stamford Bridge to block any chance of Wayne Rooney being brought into the conversation. Chelsea wanted to buy Rooney that window.
Before any fee could be finalised this time, there were difficulties over wages and agent fees.
It has been suggested to The Athletic that the opening contract offer to Sancho was actually slightly lower than his Dortmund salary. As is customary in Germany, Sancho’s contract was heavily incentivised and contained bonus payments for each point Dortmund achieved.
Conscious of maintaining a certain wage structure, United’s initial proposal was less than Sancho’s total pay packet at Dortmund. Van de Beek joined on £110,000 a week, for instance, and his representatives were told that was in line with a refined structure given Fernandes signed for £150,000 a week.
A second offer to Sancho, in early August, is said to have achieved parity with his Dortmund deal, with the potential for a fractional increase based on performance. This was not accepted. Sancho’s representatives, who carefully organised a move away from City in 2017, were clear in their view of Sancho’s worth and expected to be recompensed as such.
Though not asking for money equitable to David De Gea, who signed a deal worth more than £375,000 a week within the final 12 months of becoming a free agent, the terms desired were thought to be in the region of Paul Pogba’s £250,000 a week.
There were reports that wages had been sorted in the first week of August but this was not the case. United believed leaks to that end emanating from Germany were an attempt to “put pressure” on the process.
Still, there was positivity about a solution. Sources say the Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp was keeping himself abreast of Sancho’s situation and around this stage told friends he believed the player would end up at Old Trafford.
There was eventually a breakthrough on Sancho’s salary in the second week of September.
Running parallel were negotiations over agent fees. Some have suggested an initial proposal for a payment to the agents put United on the back foot. After negotiations, a lower sum was agreed. But that still left the transfer fee and, as the gap remained, other options were considered. A prospective loan deal for Gareth Bale was set up but the Wales international declined to wait as a reserve for Sancho. He had the emotional pull of Tottenham Hotspur in any case.
Watford’s Ismaila Sarr, previously not regarded as a genuine option, came into the reckoning in the final fortnight of the window when United explored a loan move. With Watford in the Championship, Sarr has until the domestic deadline of October 16 to join a Premier League club.
Talks also commenced over Dembele. An original inquiry for the Barcelona forward was made in July but at that stage, Dembele was not interested. Sources say Liverpool also made a check back then.
But while Liverpool instead signed Diogo Jota on September 19, it was United returning in the dying embers of the market to investigate whether Dembele might join on loan. It was a late move. A source close to the Barcelona dressing room said at the time: “He intended to stay at Barcelona. In pre-season, his attitude was really different and the players were super happy to see how he was training and how involved in the routine. Therefore, everything has to have changed a lot for him to have decided to go to United.”
In the end, United only wanted a loan. Barcelona demanded a sale, so the situation looked unlikely to develop until a late change of stance by the La Liga club on Monday evening. Barcelona indicated they would agree to a loan but only if Dembele extended his contract at the Nou Camp, and the deal was off.
Industry insiders reported numerous other inquiries and proposals put to the club by representatives, such as Real Madrid’s Luka Jovic, Inter Milan’s Ivan Perisic and Juventus’ Douglas Costa. There was exasperation among some at Carrington that United were leaving business so late again and having to work down their list to second and third options. “Looks like a panic buy,” was the assessment by one source close to the dressing room of the Cavani signing.
United did ask Bayer Leverkusen for Kai Havertz in January but were put off by the €100 million fee and never made a follow-up call this summer, clearing the path to Chelsea.
Meanwhile, the Sancho failure represents the third time Dortmund have got their way over United this year, after the signings of Erling Haaland and Jude Bellingham — two episodes that have caused lingering frustration.
Some agents who have worked with United on other deals believe the club should have halted talks on Sancho much earlier if €120 million was seen as too much and pursued alternatives. There are accusations the delay speaks to a fundamental issue in recruitment, which sources call a paralysis of decision-making. But given how much Solskjaer wanted Sancho, United wanted to try for their No 1 target for as long as possible.
United accept they have missed out on a top player but insist they have not over-extended their finances. The signings of Diallo and Pellistri, both 18-year-old wingers, are regarded as viable options for the first-team once bedded into England through the under-21s side. Diallo’s cost of €21 million plus €20 million is not insignificant, however, inevitably inviting questions about why United refused the extra money for Sancho. Diallo has been scouted since 2016 and is considered one of the most exciting prospects in Italy. There are echoes when Anthony Martial signed for big expense and little experience and became Joel Glazer’s favourite player.
Sancho will stay in the crosshairs, for the next time trading opens. It’s understood he long since shifted his focus to a future transfer rather than moving in the current window. But it is anticipated more clubs will be in the reckoning for his signature by then.
submitted by NevenSuboticFan to borussiadortmund [link] [comments]

Calculating the probability of Bob's run...

I'm not necessarily new to this forum, but I poke around just enough to only recently become aware of Bob's run. I have seen others get hot like this, and it has always ended in a blaze of infamy. Nevertheless, I love when this community comes together, and lately it has been fun cheering him on like a hot roller getting us all rich at the craps table.
However, I have to admit... in the back of my mind, the numbers-lover inside of me has been wondering... "Well, if enough people are posting their picks on a regular basis, what are the odds of one of them getting this hot just by luck?"
So, I decided to do that math. For me, personally, this is what makes our terrible hobby so enjoyable. I bet on sports not to make money, but because I enjoy playing with numbers (and having something very small on the line). So, this looked like a fun puzzle.
My first step was to calculate the probability of each of Bob's predictions hitting. The simplest way that I know to do this was to convert the moneylines that he conveniently posted to implied probabilities. Then, adjust these to "true probabilities" based on an assumed vig. For example, a ML of -110 has an implied probability of 0.524. However, it is likely that this is seen as a 50/50 bet by Vegas with 0.024 of juice. So, the "true probability" of Bob correctly predicting a -110 bet is .500.
I did this for all 24 of Bob's bets. The average "true probability" was .475.
Next, I wanted to calculate the probability of being successful 19 out of 24 trials, each with a .475 probability of success. To do this, I have to calculate the binomial distribution. See below.
P(k) = (n!/k!(n-k)!p^k (1 - p)^(n - k)
Where n = number of trials (bets)... k = number of successful attempts (hits)... p="true probability"
Based on my math, the odds of Bob having this run by luck alone is 0.0012.
In other words, if handicappers were all full of shit (I'm not saying they are - but let's pretend).. It would take about 821 of them posting their picks before we ran into a Bob.
Caveat #1 - These are not truly independent events. The formula assumes they are. But they are close enough.
Caveat #2 - I used an average probability (.474) instead of representing each bet's individual probability. This is a shortcut, because I'm tired and lazy and don't feel like figuring out the more precise method. But this would only matter if Bob's misses were disproportionately high/low probability bets. They weren't very different (.460 vs .474). Not worth the extra work.
Caveat #3 - I know handicappers aren't just operating off of pure luck. But I do track several of them with spreadsheets, and they rarely beat the juice over time. This is what made Bob's run so fun. I'll be interested to see if he beats the juice going forward.
submitted by iscurred to sportsbook [link] [comments]

The difference between the type of betting odds

Official Site Football Tips From Israel

Learn how to calculate your probability to win by understanding the types of betting odds

What is the difference between the types of betting odds? If you think to start betting online. this one of the basic things that you have to learn. In that case, it is ridiculous to think that you can start betting without knowing how to calculate your odds to win. Betting odds shows you how much money you will win. In addition, it shows you the odds that it could happen.
Read this article very carefully and find the type of betting odds that suits you best. Because, in every big bookmaker’s website, you will have the ability to see the odds in the appearance that you prefer. If you will stick to your type of betting odds, it will help you understand the probability to win.

The probability

In the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, The probability that Luis Suarez will bite another player during the World Cup was 0.57%. More the 150 people decided that it is a good probability and believed that it could happen. They won!
They calculated the probability that the bookie gave them. As a result, they understood that it was worth the risk. Because of the lower the probability, the higher the winning profit.
There are three types of betting odds.
In the past bookmakers published the odds by the locale odds type of their localization. However, in the present, most of the biggest bookmakers give you the choice to choose the way you betting odds will appear. Now, Read carefully about the three different odds types and decide what the most comfortable way for you to understand is.

Decimal Odds

The decimal odds came from Europe, Australia, and Canada. It is the easiest way to understand your odds and your winning probabilities. It represents you what will be the amount that you will win for every 1 Euro that you bet on.
Very important to understand that it does not represent profit. It represents the return of the money. To calculate the profit, you should subtract stake (the amount of the bet) that you already paid to place your bet.
This is the calculation for the profit:
The winning profit = (Odds * Stake) – Stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake.
Off course. While, the higher the probability, the lower the profit. Now, let’s calculate the probability of the same odds.
This is the calculation for the probability:
Probability = (1/Odds) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen
Watch the Full Video Guide on YouTube!
IN THE CLIP: Demoles explains and gives tips about how to calculate the Profit and the Probability from all three main types of betting odds

Fractional odds

The Fractional odds came from bookmakers that worked in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Including, several names like UK odds, Traditional odds and even, Aka British odds. However, in most bookmaker’s websites, you will see these odds called Fractional odds. You will find it presented with two numbers that have a Slash between them. (8/1 for example).
If you see for an event with 8/1 odds to happen. It means, for every 1 Euro stake you will have 8 Euros in profit. in other words, you will receive 9 euros for the win. Therefore, the Stake was 10 Euros, you will win 90 Euros (10 stakes + 80 profit)
We will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the Profit:
The winning profit = (A/B) * Stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put a 10 Euro stake.
Off course. While, the higher the probability, the lower the profit. Now, let’s calculate the probability of the same odds.
We will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the Probability:
Probability = B / (A+B) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen
However, as we saw in the Decimal odds. The same rule is in the Fractional odds too. The higher the probability, the profit is lower. Again, we will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the profit:

American odds

The American odds, it’s easy to guess, came from bookmakers in America. It is also known as US odds or Aka Moneyline odds. The underdog in the match will have (+) sign before its odds and the favorite team will have (-) sign before its odds.
The favorite team’s odds represent (-): How big should be your stake to win 100 Euros. While the Underdog team’s odds represent (+): How big will be your profit if your stake will be 100 Euros.
+440 means that if you will risk 100 euros your profit will be 440 euros in addition to your 100 euros stake. So, Your payout will be 540 euros.
-320 means that you need to risk 320 euros to make a 100 euros profit. In addition to your 320 Euros Stake. As a result, your payout will be 420 euros.
This is the calculation for the profit in Negative Odds:
The Profit in Negative Odds = (100/Odds) * stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake in Negative Odds
This is the calculation for the profit in Positive Odds:
The Probability in Positive Odds = Odds * (Stakes / 100)
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake in Positive Odds
This is the calculation for the probability in Negative Odds:
The Probability in Negative Odds = Odds / (Odds + 100) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen in Negative Odds
This is the calculation for the probability in PositiveOdds:
The Probability in Positive Odds = 100 / (Odds + 100) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen in Positive Odds

Our conclusion

At the end of the day, all three different types of betting odds: Decimal odds, Fractional odds, and American odds. Show the same probability and the same payout. They just present them in 3 different ways. We recommend you try them all, and see which Odds type suits you the best and work with it. But, no matter which odds type you choose. You always have to consider the probability and see if it worth the risk.
In our podcast, Demoles always pick his betting predictions, only after he calculated the probability to win and when it worth the risk. In view of, maximizing the winnings by the information that he collects and shares about the Football in Israel.
Does this article help you? if so, learn more about the most common types of football bets. It will help you improve your betting skills.
https://footballtipsil.com/
submitted by FootBallTipsIL to u/FootBallTipsIL [link] [comments]

The difference between the type of betting odds

Official Site Football Tips From Israel
Learn how to calculate your probability to win by understanding the types of betting odds
What is the difference between the types of betting odds? If you think to start betting online. this one of the basic things that you have to learn. In that case, it is ridiculous to think that you can start betting without knowing how to calculate your odds to win. Betting odds shows you how much money you will win. In addition, it shows you the odds that it could happen.
Read this article very carefully and find the type of betting odds that suits you best. Because, in every big bookmaker’s website, you will have the ability to see the odds in the appearance that you prefer. If you will stick to your type of betting odds, it will help you understand the probability to win.
The probability
In the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, The probability that Luis Suarez will bite another player during the World Cup was 0.57%. More the 150 people decided that it is a good probability and believed that it could happen. They won!
They calculated the probability that the bookie gave them. As a result, they understood that it was worth the risk. Because of the lower the probability, the higher the winning profit.
There are three types of betting odds.
In the past bookmakers
published the odds by the locale odds type of their localization. However, in the present, most of the biggest bookmakers give you a choice to choose the way you are betting odds will appear. Now, Read carefully about the three different odds types and decide what the most comfortable way for you to understand is.
Decimal Odds
The decimal odds
came from Europe, Australia, and Canada. It is the easiest way to understand your odds and your winning probabilities. It represents you what will be the amount that you will win for every 1 Euro that you bet on.
Very important to understand that it does not represent profit. It represents the return of the money. To calculate the profit, you should subtract stake (the amount of the bet) that you already paid to place your bet.
This is the calculation for the profit:
The winning profit = (Odds * Stake) – Stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake.
Off course. While, the higher the probability, the lower the profit. Now, let’s calculate the probability of the same odds.
This is the calculation for the probability:
Probability = (1/Odds) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen
Watch the Full Video Guide on YouTube!
IN THE CLIP: Demoles explains and gives tips about how to calculate the Profit and the Probability from all three main types of betting odds
Fractional odds
The Fractional odds came from bookmakers that worked in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Including, several names like UK odds, Traditional odds and even, Aka British odds. However, in most bookmaker’s websites, you will see these odds called Fractional odds
. You will find it presented with two numbers that have a Slash between them. (8/1 for example).
If you see for an event with 8/1 odds to happen. It means, for every 1 Euro stake you will have 8 Euros in profit. in other words, you will receive 9 euros for the win. Therefore, the Stake was 10 Euros, you will win 90 Euros (10 stakes + 80 profit)
We will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the Profit:
The winning profit = (A/B) * Stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put a 10 Euro stake.
Off course. While, the higher the probability, the lower the profit. Now, let’s calculate the probability of the same odds.
We will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the Probability:
Probability = B / (A+B) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen
However, as we saw in the Decimal odds. The same rule is in the Fractional odds too. The higher the probability, the profit is lower. Again, we will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate
the profit:
American odds
The American odds, it’s easy to guess, came from bookmakers in America. It is also known as US odds or Aka Moneyline odds. The underdog in the match will have (+) sign before its odds and the favorite team will have (-) sign before its odds.
The favorite team’s odds represent (-): How big should be your stake to win 100 Euros. While the Underdog team’s odds represent (+): How big will be your profit if your stake will be 100 Euros.
+440 means that if you will risk 100 euros your profit will be 440 euros in addition to your 100 euros stake. So, Your payout will be 540 euros.
-320 means that you need to risk 320 euros to make a 100 euros profit. In addition to your 320 Euros Stake. As a result, your payout will be 420 euros.
This is the calculation for the profit in Negative Odds:
The Profit in Negative Odds = (100/Odds) * stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake in Negative Odds
This is the calculation for the profit in Positive Odds:
The Probability in Positive Odds = Odds * (Stakes / 100)
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake in Positive Odds
This is the calculation for the probability in Negative Odds:
The Probability in Negative Odds = Odds / (Odds + 100) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen in Negative Odds
This is the calculation for the probability in PositiveOdds:
The Probability in Positive Odds = 100 / (Odds + 100) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen in Positive Odds
Our conclusion
At the end of the day, all three different types of betting odds
: Decimal odds, Fractional odds, and American odds. Show the same probability and the same payout. They just present them in 3 different ways. We recommend you try them all, and see which Odds type suits you the best and work with it. But, no matter which odds type you choose. You always have to consider the probability and see if it worth the risk.
In our podcast, Demoles always pick his betting predictions, only after he calculated the probability to win and when it worth the risk. In view of, maximizing the winnings by the information that he collects and shares about the Football in Israel.
Does this article help you? if so, learn more about the most common types of football bets
. It will help you improve your betting skills.
https://footballtipsil.com/
submitted by FootBallTipsIL to betting [link] [comments]

A realistic look at Fred and George's bet with Ludo Bagman and what they might win.

Fred and George eagerly offer up a truly absurd bet with almost no provocation when Ludo Bagman offers one. They bet 37 Galleons, 15 sickles and 3 knuts, plus a fake wand Ludo values at 5 galleons (a real wand is 7 galleons so its a really impressive fake, it seems. )
Now most people would assume it's a straightforward bet and if the twins are correct, Ludo owes them 85 galleons, 13 sickles and 6 knuts. (Or 79 Galleons if he returns the wand when he pays up.)
But Ludo says something very important in the area of sports betting. "I'll give you excellent odds on that!"
Which means the twins are not doing a 1 for 1 bet, but are getting a bet which pays in multiples. Once odds enter the discussion, there is no way its a 1 for 1. No one has ever considered a 1 for 1 bet "excellent odds."
The odds are not stated, but Fred and George's wager is absurd. They are betting that the most famous athlete in the most famous sport in their world will either make a tremendous, legendary blunder on par with Chris Webber calling the fateful timeout he didn't have to lose the NCAA championship, or Andres Escobar making the own-goal in the 1994 FIFA world cup that ultimately led to his murder a month later.
Or worse, that the most famous athlete will lose the game on purpose. This is not entirely uncommon in sports, and almost always for the same reason: betting. People in organized crime pay an athlete to lose, then bet as much as they can on the lost, guaranteeing their returns. But it's majorly illegal and if caught it means you're banned from the sport for life. Big stakes for an 18 year old wunderkind with his entire pro career ahead of him.
In other words, their prediction is hugely unlikely. No one else at the World Cup is looking for that bet and no other betting service would even think to offer odds on it. (Remember that matches lasting multiple days are common which means most seekers aren't getting bored and grabbing the snitch after 3 hours just to go home if they're losing.) And hugely unlikely bets get excellent odds. Betting on a winner and loser is straightforward, but betting on isolated elements of a game like that is much more complex and carries much higher odds. Think roulette, they're not betting on black or white. They're betting on specific numbers, but still way beyond that. Glance through Super Bowl prop bets and you'll see picking the guy who scores the winning touchdown or field goal will have odds between 1 to 100 and 1 to 1,000 depending on the players role in the offense.
So how much would the twins have won if Bagman was an honest man? The twins don't say a word about odds, which was incredibly foolish of them, so we'll run the gamut. (I'm including the knuts and sickles in the calculations but after adding them to the galleon tally I'm just reporting the galleons.)
- If they bet at 3 to 1 they would make 128.66 Galleons, not counting getting their original 37 back.
- If it's 5 to 1 they win 214.44
- 10 to 1 pays 428.88
- 20 to 1 pays 857.77. This, frankly would be the absolute minimum of acceptable odds if the twins knew their way around a sports book. Still very low.
- 25 to 1 pays 1,072.21
- 50 to 1 pays 2,144.42
- 100 to 1 pays 4,288.84
- 200 to 1 pays 8,577.69
- 500 to 1 pays 21,444.22 This is probably outside the realm of possibility without Ludo having a legit backer or running a legitimate book operation, he simply wouldn't accept a bet that would pay out like this. However, in a legitimate casino this would be the type of odds necessary to make someone bet on something this unlikely.
All that to say the 1,000 Galleons Harry gave them might be far less than what their seed money would have looked like if Ludo was honest, loaded, and fair.
submitted by dsjunior1388 to HarryPotterBooks [link] [comments]

Sports Betting Odds

If you are brand new to gambling, among those very first affairs which you ought to do is study how sports betting odds get the job done. It truly is critically essential as it enables one to fully grasp just how probable an event is to come about, and also exactly what your prospective winnings will probably undoubtedly be. In the beginning, it might seem perplexing, but study our guidebook and then let's clarify it for you personally. In gaming, chances signify the ratio involving the numbers by celebrations into some bet or guess. So, chances of 3 to 1 inch signal the very first bash (the bookmaker) bets three times the total staked from the next party (that the bettor).
Just how Can Sports bet Odds Perform?
Sports betting chances are intended to, so in a glimpse, provide people a notion of just how likely it really is that every team will triumph in addition to just how much you will produce using a prosperous wager on such final result. To put it differently, you need to utilize these to have yourself a fast concept of this underdog, and your favoured.
To make a decision as to what chances they supply, bookmakers consider a reach of facets. This may possibly incorporate everything from exactly what additional Sportsbooks are presenting right through to the consequences of prior matchups. They will fix those chances in real-time, dependent on facets such as harms and also the current weather, in addition to that the quantity of cash supplied by bettors on just about every final result.
What Exactly Is Probability?
Even the most introductory amount, gambling supplies you with all the skills to anticipate the results of the particular celebration, also when a forecast is not right, and you will acquire more money. To almost any specific occasion, there really is a particular selection of results. Simply take rolling out a stunt for example.
If a person rolls a dice, then you can find just six potential consequences. Hence, in the event you gamble that anyone rolls a '1 ', then there will be really a 16.67% opportunity which will take place. What gambling chances simply do is demonstrate the way the event is really to occur. so, a portion, i.e. 4/7, as the huge majority additionally offers you the capacity to look at them as decimals. Yet again, why do not we discuss? We all will eventually become evident.
Odds - What to Pick?
Selecting which arrangement of chances to produce if online sports betting is down to some question of private taste. This may most likely, however, perhaps not at all times, function as the form of chances associated by at which your home is. We have to find most of the sports betting internet sites give the choice to decide on which form of chances that you wish to see if you are taking a look at setting a bet. In addition, there are chances calculators out there that are able to enable you to switch between several kinds of odds. The very main point is the fact that it will not matter which kind of chances you prefer to make use of: you will not get or shed additional dollars by deciding upon a particular means of seeing chances. It hence creates the best way to pick the one which you're most relaxed together and utilize it if potential.
Strategies for Putting a Wager
You learn more on the topic of calculating betting, along with different techniques they can be displayed, then you should use this advice in your favor if setting the next wager. Under, you are going to discover a couple of our best hints for employing your new-found awareness about this subsequent bet you put!
  1. Do Not Be Scared to Look Around
Many Sportsbooks will upgrade their chances predicated on real-life effects quicker than some others. Equipped with all the wisdom the way to exactly calculate prospective winnings, then you are able to find out exactly what constitutes the absolute most rewarding wager for you personally, in case you wind up profitable.
  1. Check out frequently
It is crucial that you maintain a watch out for your likelihood, preferably utilizing a smartphone or tablet in the event that you should be about the go. In the event you notice chances switching fast in one path then it really is probably something that has shifted (e.g. weather conditions, spot, or some essential accident). This may possibly influence that which you right back into the competition, or how far you really bet.
  1. Gauge the danger
Utilize exactly what you understand about chances to discover that which you look at as a decent degree of hazard in case gambling in an underdog. $1 wagered on 20/1 chances, as an instance, somewhat very low hazard stake regarding maximum drawback. Many bettors could but feel uneasy gambling $100 on 100/1 chances (in spite of the massive possible benefit) since the chances are stacked so heavily towards you personally.
  1. Remain in the understand
Be sure that you benefit from insider understanding. Bookies, say, may possibly only possibly not be around date up what is happening in upcoming NFL fittings in contrast to a super fan who considers breaking-news reports. This really is the reason it could be of help to bet to a game you are a real lover of or do your homework before setting your stake.
submitted by ofagames to u/ofagames [link] [comments]

1 week off

Hi, this post is just me sharing my experience as a 26 yo who dug a hole a month ago and now is starting to climb out of it. If that can help anyone out there to leave this disease behind.
Basically i never placed my bet my entire existence, until about a month and half ago, i started with a 100 I had laying around. Lost it, and then just left the bookie for a while, but this thought kept haunting me : what if ive won ? Its that easy to make money, i only need to win like 3 times in a row and ill be 1k richer than i was 2 hours ago, and guess what, it did happen, and i was up 1k, so that reassure me of how easy it was to earn money. So i placed a bet after another, chasing loss after loss, until i had money left, so I took a loan thinking "okay, i only need to bet big and win once and ill cover my losses" and guess what, the surest bets werent sure after all, so the losses continued but now it was more damaging as the bets were big, so fast forward to that ive found myself 11k in debt, which in perspective for some might not be that bad, but keep in mind that first of all this is all in a span of one month, imagine what i could have bought with 11k, and secondly here in france the incomes arent gigantic as probably the US, so earning 2.5k a month with lot of expenses, specially in Paris but after hitting rock bottom, isolating myself from everyone and my day would be sum up in me waiting for the next game ive bet on, it made me learn and change a lot of things so fast :
I guess this was me ranting about stuff you probably already know, just quit this shit, weither you're 20k ahead or 20k in debt, it only gets worse in the long run and i've learned that the hard way.
submitted by wisconsindeathtrick to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Guide to Recruiting for Quant/ Trading Roles

Hi all,
I've had a few people reach out to me about advice on recruiting for Quant so I thought I could share my experience to help others who are interested.
Prep:
Understand these positions are extremely competitive and mainly go to math/stats/cs students at top targets. That being said, it is possible to get a position if you don't go to a target but you need a really strong quantitative skillset either way.
The structure of the interviews for most shops are: online math/logic test, 1-3x phone interviews, and final round in person. At each level, they try to reduce the applicant pool by >70%, with the initial math test weeding out the most. In my experience, the math tests are a mix of mental math, stats/probability, sequences, and sometimes trading/gambling simulators. It is extremely important that you practice even if you have taken advanced stats/math classes.
For mental math, I used rank your brain on expert and didn't apply until I was scoring around ~30. There are a lot of resources to practice probability questions but I used Quant Job Interview by Mark Joshi and just did the probability, brain teaser, and option pricing questions. The key to studying these is to really understand the logic of solving any question. There's no point memorizing answers if you can't talk through the logic of it. There were a few instances where I'd actually get the wrong answer but moved forward because my logic was correct. If you don't have much stats experience, I'd recommend taking a bayesian statistics and game theory course. Bayesian concepts are especially applicable to trading. For option pricing, I never got many question on the greeks but there were a fair amount of calculating probabilities of outcomes given option prices. A simple example to think of is (if a painting could either be worth $100k if its real or $1k if its fake, and you receive an option to buy it for $30k, assuming the option is priced fairly, what are the probabilities of each outcome).
Some firms have a coding part to the interviews but in most cases, you don't need much coding skill. If you are applying to a more algo-focused shop, you should be prepared to answer algorithm questions. For those, you just have to have a lot of CS knowledge. I wouldn't focus on these types of firms if you don't have a strong CS background.
During phone interviews, I got a mix of behavioral ("Why trading?") and math/stats questions. The math questions range from combinatorics to matrix algebra but you don't really need to know a lot of theory. For stats, they are a bit harder than initial assessment but not too bad. For a phone interview, practice with a friend talking through your logic for a given question. Practice breaking up the problem into components that can ultimately drive the solution. Also have some relevant projects/ ideas that you can speak to in depth.
For the final round, you just have to really feel comfortable that you know your shit. There will be more rigorous probability/math questions and some problems may not have a known solution. Just remember, the way you explain your logic is far more important than getting to the answer. Also a few places had some type of trading simulation game. That's harder to prep for but you may be able to find some online.
Resume/ Application:
I would recommend making a resume specific for trading where you highlight more quantitative skills/ experience. For example, I had an internship at a VC but focused more on how I modeled companies in different verticals and talked about a machine learning tool I made for the firm. Also it is fine to include school/ personal projects. For example, I made a sports betting algorithm that predicted game outcomes and sized positions using MPT. That led to a lot of interesting conversations with recruiters. Some firms do have referral programs so it would be worth reaching out to someone you know at a firm but it won't get you far. Usually, it'll just get you to the initial math test.
If you manage your own portfolio, it could be worth mentioning. Be sure to word it in a way that shows it's something you're interested in and not that you're a trading god (you're not).
A lot of firms require a high GPA (>3.6) but if you're not there just list your major gpa if applicable or don't include it. Networking/ cold emailing does very little to help you since relationships aren't as crucial in this business.
If you're lacking relevant projects, I'd recommend learning python and playing around with some statistical modeling packages (sklearn, keras/tf, scipy).
Most firms usually automatically send you a math test when you apply so be sure to practice a lot before applying. It might help to have a friend to help you if you feel unprepared but know they'll expect you to perform similar if you move forward.
Firm Reputations/ Comp:
  1. Market making: These firms are known to have extremely smart people but have better work life balance than others. Examples are Optiver, IMC, DRW, etc..
  2. Prop Firms: Beware there are a ton of scummy places that claim to be prop but really it's just an arcade shop. If any firm claims you need to put in your own capital or they won't pay you a base salary is not worth the time. Prop kinda overlaps with market making but some examples are Jane Street capital, Akuna, Jump, etc ...
  3. Hedge Funds: IMO, the most exciting but also worst work life balance. Examples are Citadel, Bridgewater, twosigma.
Comp across the board ranges from $150k-$500k all in. Normal breakdown is $100-$200k base, $30-100k signing bonus, then another $50k-150k performance bonus. Pretty sure citadel pays the most but it sucks to work there.
As far as reputations go, during my interviews I always had a pleasant experience. Most people are nice and polite and are happy to help you understand the firm more. I found Bridgewater's culture to be pretty weird. For example, they have an automated system that tracks everything you do or say so you can get an email saying you said the word "um" 3.6 times in the past week and need to communicate more effectively. At Citadel, all traders looked like they wanted to die but they're all rich. Other than that, if you can get into a top shop, you'll learn a lot and most are a very collaborative working environment.
Conclusion:
Understand that making money in trading is extremely difficult and competitive. Dont think you can easily gain an edge or identify unique opportunities because there's usually someone more experienced and smarter on the other side. That being said, if you work hard and spend time to understand your focus/ niche, there may be opportunities.
Yes, recruiting for this role is extremely competitive and stressful. More so than IB/PE imo. It can be disheartening at times, but stay motivated and try to improve. I got rejected by a ton of firms and it definitely can weigh in on you, but if you work hard and keep with it, something positive is bound to come.
​
Hope that helps. Good luck!
submitted by traders101023443 to FinancialCareers [link] [comments]

Wouldn't It Be Ironic?

"Time machine, huh? You really expect me to believe that, Professor?"
"I'd be more than happy to prove it to you," Giles muttered, not looking up from his manacled hands. "But the fire destroyed my lab."
"The fire, right. How convenient."
"I find it decidedly inconvenient, Detective."
"Agent," the man corrected. He leaned against the far wall, arms nonchalantly folded across his chest. His off-the-rack sport jacket rode up to reveal an empty holster. Firearms were not allowed in the interrogation room.
"If you really had invented a time machine, why didn't you go back and assassinate Hitler, or pop into the future and see which teams won what games so you could place some bets? That's what I would do."
"You can only observe in the past. You can't change it anymore than you can leave a handprint in concrete that has already set," Giles explained in the simplest terms he could muster. "The future is malleable. Anything done in the present alters the arc. Simpley betting on a game could change its outcome."
"So, if the future isn't set, why shoot the Senator?"
"I calculated a high degree of certainty for his probability arc. There is a 92.053% chance that what I saw will happen."
"Ah, I see," the agent said, mockery seeping through his tone.
"No, I don't think you do," Giles shot back, making eye contact for the first time. "The man would have been a monster! I've seen the degradation, suffering, and death he would have inflicted, not only on this nation, but the world! Hitler pales in comparison! Go ahead, lock me up, laugh at me, call me insane, but I know that I have saved humanity from a beast!"
"So, you haven't heard yet?" the Agent chuckled. "The surgeons got the bullet out of his brain. He's expected to make a full recovery. They're calling it a miracle. His polls have gone through the roof. He's a shoo-in for the White House now."
Giles' jaw dropped open.
The agent rapped his knuckles on the door and called for the guard. He paused before leaving, turning to face Giles from the doorway.
"I Just had an interesting thought. A couple of buddies from my army days suffered from TBI, traumatic brain injury, you know? It changed them, made them different, and not for the better. Now, I'm not saying I believe anything you've said, personally I think you're bat-shit crazy, but wouldn't it be ironic if the TBI from your bullet caused the Senator to become the monster you claim he'll be? Just something for you to ponder during those long nights in solitary."
The door shut with a thud, leaving Giles alone.
"Oh, God, no," he moaned. Covering his face with his hands, Giles wept.
submitted by JessumGui to shortscarystories [link] [comments]

Great Bale perspective from Rory Smith in New York Times

This is from his free weekly soccer e-mail newsletter on NYTimes.com, so I hope the mods are okay w/ me posting this. A great read.
Gareth Bale Moves Fast. Soccer Moves Faster.
By Rory Smith
After a while, Gareth Bale almost seemed to relish it: the confrontation, the controversy, the opprobrium. It was as if he had stopped trying to fight it, wasting his energy correcting misunderstandings or railing at willful misinterpretations, and instead invited them to come crashing down on him.
The flag, Bale felt, was just a bit of a joke. He had seen it — the Welsh dragon, festooned with the slogan “Wales, Golf, Madrid, In That Order,” a reference to a chant that had been doing the rounds among the fans of his national team — a few weeks before, and he found it funny enough to demur when his teammates suggested they might like to show it off.
But then came the images of Bale in the games of the socially distanced era, sitting in the stands as he watched Real Madrid play yet another game without his participation, his mind clearly wandering: rolling up a piece of cardboard as a telescope, covering his eyes with his face mask or pretending to drop off to sleep.
It was all a little childish, not especially professional, but essentially harmless: plenty of players joke around during their time on the substitutes’ bench. (There have been rare instances of phones being checked, though to many that is beyond the pale.) But still: those pictures spoke of boredom, of frivolity, of a player who had long since stopped caring.
Bale, deep down, probably had. He knew, by then, that he was not going to play, and that even if he did play, he would not start the next game, or the game after that. Real Madrid’s manager, Zinedine Zidane, had made it abundantly clear he did not have a place in his plans, much less on his team.
Real Madrid’s fans — though absent from the stands — had long since let Bale know that he was no longer welcome. The team’s allies in the Spanish news media had let slip, time and again, that the club’s hierarchy felt the same way. Someone, somewhere had been briefing reporters, over and over, that Bale had long been a distant, detached figure, that he had never bothered learning Spanish, that he preferred to play golf. Bale knew he was not wanted. He was no longer prepared to go along with the charade.
Bale’s war with his employer has been simmering for so long that the strangeness of the situation has been obscured. Until last summer, he was still, after all, Real Madrid’s record signing, by all calculations except the ones they gave to Cristiano Ronaldo. It has hardly been a disastrous investment: in his seven years in Spain, Bale won La Liga twice and the Champions League four times.
He has actively won those trophies, too: he has not just been along for the ride. He scored in the final in 2014 — the goal that put Real Madrid ahead in extra time and finally broke Atlético Madrid’s resolve and, as a substitute, two more in the victory over Liverpool in 2018. The first was, perhaps, the finest goal ever scored in a European Cup final.
And yet, now, there is little to no querying of why, exactly, Zidane has no time for a player who has enjoyed such success, and who has, at times, delivered for him. Blame is apportioned not to the coach who has ostracized him, but to the player, for either not justifying his vast salary or foregoing it entirely simply to escape.
The idea that Real Madrid might be so desperate to shed him from its books, meanwhile, that it is willing to allow him to return to his former club, Tottenham Hotspur, on loan — for no fee, and with Spurs covering only half his wages — is seen, if anything, not as madness on the part of Real Madrid but as a risk for Tottenham.
Zidane’s record, of course, helps with all of that, as it is difficult to question too intensely the judgment of a coach who has won three Champions League titles in five attempts. So, too, do those images, the ones that make Bale look reckless and feckless in equal measure, the ones that lend credence to the accusations that he does not mind not playing, as long as he is getting paid, the ones that suggest he is either playing to the gallery or trolling his critics.
And so, without question, does the propaganda campaign that seems to have been waged against Bale — again, so as not to lose sight of how odd this is, a Real Madrid employee — by the club itself. Bale is, by almost any measure, the most successful player Britain has ever exported: only another Welsh star, John Charles, can really lay claim to coming close.
But so successfully and so relentlessly has Bale been depicted as a mercenary, happy just to pick up his paycheck and go and play golf, that even in Britain he is not afforded the reverence that his career warrants. Wales remains fiercely loyal, of course, but to that great, borderless constituency of Premier League fans, Bale will be returning from Spain with his tail between his legs.
When Bale joins Spurs, perhaps in the next few days, he will be seen not as a coup but as either an indulgence — a little reverie on memory lane for Daniel Levy, the Spurs chairman — or a luxury. Manchester United considered him, but decided Jadon Sancho was a far better bet. Most fans, of most clubs aside from Tottenham, would agree.
That offers a glimpse not only of the power of the news media to shape perceptions, even when refracted by the interpretation of a second media bloc — what is written in Spanish papers eventually bleeds into their British equivalents — but of just how fickle the business Bale finds himself in can be.
It is at the height of the transfer window that soccer’s goldfish memory, its faddishness and its immediacy, is seen most clearly. The next thing is always the best thing. Potential is always more exciting than proof. As José Mourinho, Bale’s imminent manager, once observed, soccer is a sport that prefers those who have never lost a game, even if they have never played one.
English soccer — perhaps European soccer — has, in a sense, moved on from Bale. He is no longer new and exciting and fresh. The fact that he is, instead, tried and tested and proven is either deemed irrelevant or actively counts against him. Since he left, others have risen to take his place. He is a short-term signing. He is a gamble. He is a busted flush. He is not for us. He is best left to Spurs. He is a player from the past.
And yet, when he returns to the Premier League, he will do so as possibly the most decorated player ever to arrive on these shores. Age and injury may have dimmed his star a little, but memories should not be so short as to forget the force of nature that he once was, and that he might yet — even occasionally — still be. Common sense should dictate that, after seven years at Real Madrid, he might be something more than pace and power.
None of that should be overlooked, and none of it should be forgotten. All that Bale has achieved should not be obscured by the machinations of the Real Madrid machine, or by his succumbing to it. All that he was — all that he might still be, in the right time and the right place — should not be consigned quite so easily to yesterday. Soccer never stops moving; that is what makes it so compelling, so competitive. There are times, though, when it moves just a little too fast for its own good.
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Simple Bankroll Management & Unit Distribution

(This is a lesson taken from The Betting Network discord community, it’s important to know that there is no bankroll strategy that is one size fits all. Each bettor has a different risk tolerance or different financial situation. The strategies listed below are what I believe best fit the members in the betting network community.)
I decided to update this topic because I want there to be an official Betting Network way to manage bankrolls and distribute units. Sort of like a default bankroll management strategy for anyone who doesn’t have one. The first bankroll management lesson I did might be helpful to some if you want to go back and read it because it talks more in-depth about bankroll management as a whole. I’m going to cover it briefly again here but spend more time on unit sizing and when you should increase units and decrease.
This lesson is for the bettors who are serious, disciplined and their reason for betting is to try and make money. If you bet for fun/entertainment which is totally fine but don’t even waste time worrying about bet size and bankroll management. I’d recommend just focusing on your process of finding picks and for each game just decide what the entertainment value of that game is worth. If your favorite team is playing maybe it’s worth a little more, if it’s a game you aren’t planning to watch much of than maybe it’s a lot less.
If you’ve been a member for any length of time you’ve probably heard me say “The best bankroll management in the world won’t save you if your process of selecting games is dog shit”. Yes that’s true but I don’t want to discount the importance of a solid, disciplined strategy. Having a good bankroll management and unit distribution strategy can do wonders for bettors during both winning streaks and losing streaks. You can minimize damage during downswings by not chasing and having the question of how much to bet already answered for you. You also can maximize profits during hot streaks by weekly increases in bet size, I'll cover more of that below.
There are 3 main types of bankroll management strategies. For this lesson I’m going to focus on 2 of the 3. The one I’m choosing not to discuss in detail is the “Professional bankroll” that’s your entire net worth and your livelihood. A pros bankroll is very likely in the 6 figure range and they bet based on their edge they have on any given game. You shouldn’t be betting like this if you are unable to accurately calculate your edge on a given game. The next strategy is The “Set bankroll” or “Fixed bankroll”, this is the first type we are going to discuss and then we will discuss the “Flexible bankroll” We all fall under one of these two bankrolls strategies and depending on which category you fall into you can start using either one.
Set Bankroll - Is probably the most common bankroll strategy and the one I tend to use for examples when people ask about this topic. Someone using a set bankroll management strategy would at the start of every season set a figure in mind that they are willing to gamble with. This isn’t your net worth or what’s in your bank account. This is an amount that if you lost it all or suddenly it caught on fire it wouldn’t ruin you to the point where you couldn’t pay bills, eat or pay rent. In fact this amount should be completely separate from your bill or rent budget. (I know a lot of you bet with everything you have so maybe the next strategy is better for you). So let’s say the NFL season is about to start and you have set aside $1,000 (Can be more or less, $1,000 is easier for this example). Your base unit should be between 1% to 3% of your entire bankroll, depending on your risk tolerance. Let’s say it’s 2% you should be betting $20 per game and a strong play of 2 units would be $40 and a very strong play or max bet would be $60 a 3unit play.
The important part here is you want to set goals or tiers and once you reach those tiers you reset your unit sizing. If you start with that $1,000 bankroll you might want to set a goal of $1,250 and once you reach that amount you can increase your bet sizing to maybe 3% of your entire bankroll which is now $1,250 and doing so your unit size would be $35 rather than $20. You must do the same thing in reverse, if you start with $1,000 and you lose $200 you want to recalibrate your unit size based on your smaller bankroll. You DONT want to increase or decrease your unit size based on a couple wins or loses, that’s why it’s important to have tier goals set beforehand. The same goal you have for winnings should be the same for losses. It might sound confusing because each person will have a different starting bankroll and each person may have different tier goals but you want to increase unit size once you reach your goal tier. Or decrease if you were to lose that same amount. If your goal is $300 than if you lose $300 that’s when you downsize your unit based on your new bankroll.
Flexible Bankroll - This is probably the bankroll management strategy that fits most bettors here in TBN. A flexible bankroll is not a set amount like the “set bankroll” is but rather one that’s changing and you are working on adding to it daily or weekly. Maybe you have a job and when you get paid you add to your bankroll. Please don’t use your bankroll as a weekly figure that you deposit and bet all of it on a night and and start over each week, if you do that then you can benefit the most from bankroll management. With a flexible bankroll we do want to bet bigger than the %1 to 3% unit size, it can be between 5% and 10% based on your risk tolerance but the same idea applies, let’s say your flexible bankroll is $400, you could use 10% (on the high end) for your unit size which is $40 per bet. You still want to set tier goals, maybe when you get paid you add $200 to the $400 bankroll, you want to adjust the unit size. Or if you lose $200 of your $400 bankroll you want to decrease your unit size until you are back at the original $400.
This is the discipline part that most just can not do and is the main reason 95% of sports bettors are not profitable. If I’m being honest, the reason I don’t focus on preaching bankroll management in the community as much as I do other topics is because of how hard it is to stick to a strict money management system. Most bettors like the idea of it but doing it is extremely difficult but if you are able to practice a consistent money management system then you really have what it takes to succeed in sports betting.
As always, I know this stuff is difficult to comprehend by text so I encourage you to ask questions so you fully understand. Also I try to keep these as brief as possible so I may have left out some key components, just ask, that’s what this is all about!
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Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update September 22, 2020

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update September 22, 2020
Notes by mr_tyler_durden and Daily Update Team
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Watch here:
Headlines
Full Notes
QUESTIONS
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Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update August 10, 2020

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update August 10, 2020
Notes by mr_tyler_durden and Daily Update Team
Note: We may need to paraphrase, but the notes are accurate
Watch here:
Headlines
Summarized (Full) Notes
(continued in stickied comment)
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Sports Arbitrage Calculator - Excel Template for Arbitrage ... The Math Behind How Betting Odds Are Set Mach NBC News ... Free Fixed Odds Sports Betting Calculator Implied Probability in Sports Betting - YouTube Excel odds profit formula

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