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{GAME THREAD} PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 - GAME 5 - Boston Celtics (2-2) @ TORONTO RAPTORS (2-2) - 6:30pm (EST)

🗣️REMINDER🗣️: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?

GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS - ROUND 2 - GAME 5
Date: Monday September 7th, 2020
Current Streak: W2
Tip Off: 6:30 pm (EST)
Venue: ESPN WWOS ARENA (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 32°C (90°F) - MOSTLY CLOUDY
EASTERN CONF. PLAYOFF PICTURE:
ROUND 2 W ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 1 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 3 WINNER ROUND. 2
(3) BOSTON 2 WINNER ROUND. 2
(2) TORONTO 2 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1/4/5 @ 6:30pm (EST)
^ Pre-Game on TSN 1/4/5 @ 6:00pm (EST)
US National TV: TNT
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors +1.5 (-110)
Total: 212.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors +100
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Kemba Walker
SG Fred VanVleet Marcus Smart
SF OG Anunoby Jaylen Brown
PF Pascal Siakam Jayson Tatum
C Marc Gasol Daniel Theis
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 2:00pm report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Surgery
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Javonte Green OUT Right Knee; Surgery
Gordon Hayward OUT Right Ankle; Sprain
Vincent Poirier OUT Personal Reasons
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #05 Kane Fitzgerald
Referee #42 Eric Lewis
Umpire #61 Courtney Kirkland
Alternate #38 Michael Smith
wear a mask.
wash your hands.
install the Gov't of Canada COVID tracing app.
US Citizens living in Canada. REGISTER TO VOTE!

stay safe Raptors fam.❤️

submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

[GAME THREAD] PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 - GAME 3 - TORONTO RAPTORS (0-2) @ Boston Celtics (2-0) - 6:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS - ROUND 2 - GAME 3
Date: Thursday September 3rd, 2020
Current Streak: L2
Tip Off: 6:30 pm (EST)
Venue: ESPN WWOS ARENA (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 30°C (86°F) - SUNNY
EASTERN CONF. PLAYOFF PICTURE:
ROUND 2 W ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 0 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 2 WINNER ROUND. 2
(3) BOSTON 2 WINNER ROUND. 2
(2) TORONTO 0 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1/4/5 @ 6:30pm (EST)
^ Pre-Game on TSN 1/4 @ 5:30pm (EST)
US National TV: TNT
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -2.0 (-110)
Total: 217.5 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -135
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Kemba Walker
SG Fred VanVleet Marcus Smart
SF OG Anunoby Jaylen Brown
PF Pascal Siakam Jayson Tatum
C Marc Gasol Daniel Theis
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Left Knee; Surgery
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Javonte Green OUT Right Knee; Surgery
Gordon Hayward OUT Right Ankle; Sprain
Tremont Waters OUT Left Knee; Sprain
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #19 James Capers
Referee #58 Josh Tiven
Umpire #71 Rodney Mott
Alternate #39 Tyler Ford
wear a mask.
wash your hands.
install the Gov't of Canada COVID tracing app.
US Citizens living in Canada. REGISTER TO VOTE!

stay safe Raptors fam.❤️

submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

{GAME THREAD} PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 - GAME 4 - TORONTO RAPTORS (1-2) @ Boston Celtics (2-1) - 6:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS - ROUND 2 - GAME 4
Date: Saturday September 5th, 2020
Current Streak: W1
Tip Off: 6:30 pm (EST)
Venue: ESPN WWOS ARENA (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 36°C (97°F) - SUNNY
EASTERN CONF. PLAYOFF PICTURE:
ROUND 2 W ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 0 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 3 WINNER ROUND. 2
(3) BOSTON 2 WINNER ROUND. 2
(2) TORONTO 1 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: SPORTSNET @ 6:30pm (EST)
^ Pre-Game on SPORTSNET @ 6:00pm (EST)
US National TV: TNT
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors +1.5 (-110)
Total: 214.5 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors +105
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Kemba Walker
SG Fred VanVleet Marcus Smart
SF OG Anunoby Jaylen Brown
PF Pascal Siakam Jayson Tatum
C Marc Gasol Daniel Theis
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 2:00pm report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Surgery
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Javonte Green OUT Right Knee; Surgery
Gordon Hayward OUT Right Ankle; Sprain
Vincent Poirier OUT Personal Reasons
Tremont Waters QUESTIONABLE Left Knee; Sprain
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #08 Marc Davis
Referee #55 Bill Kennedy
Umpire #24 Kevin Scott
Alternate #11 Derrick Collins
wear a mask.
wash your hands.
install the Gov't of Canada COVID tracing app.
US Citizens living in Canada. REGISTER TO VOTE!

stay safe Raptors fam.❤️

submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

{GAME THREAD} PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 - GAME 2 - Boston Celtics (1-0) @ TORONTO RAPTORS (0-1) - 5:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS - ROUND 2 - GAME 2
Date: Tuesday September 1st, 2020
Current Streak: L1
Tip Off: 5:30 pm (EST)
Venue: ESPN WWOS ARENA (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 31°C (88°F) - SUNNY
EASTERN CONF. PLAYOFF PICTURE:
ROUND 2 W ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 0 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 1 WINNER ROUND. 2
(3) BOSTON 1 WINNER ROUND. 2
(2) TORONTO 0 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: SPORTSNET @ 5:30pm (EST)
^ Pre-Game on SPORTSNET @ 5:00pm (EST)
US National TV: ESPN
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -1.5 (-110)
Total: 218.5 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -130
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Kemba Walker
SG Fred VanVleet Marcus Smart
SF OG Anunoby Jaylen Brown
PF Pascal Siakam Jayson Tatum
C Marc Gasol Daniel Theis
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Left Knee; Surgery
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Javonte Green OUT Right Knee; Surgery
Gordon Hayward OUT Right Ankle; Sprain
Tremont Waters OUT Left Knee; Sprain
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #15 Zach Zarba
Referee #25 Tony Brothers
Umpire #33 Sean Corbin
Alternate #40 Leon Wood
wear a mask.
wash your hands.
install the Gov't of Canada COVID tracing app.
US Citizens living in Canada. REGISTER TO VOTE!

stay safe Raptors fam.❤️

submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

{GAME THREAD} PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 - GAME 1 - Boston Celtics (0-0) @ TORONTO RAPTORS (0-0) - 1:00pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 - GAME 1
Date: Sunday August 30th, 2020
Current Streak: W8
Tip Off: 1:00 pm (EST)
Venue: HP Field House (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 27°C (81°F) - Mainly Sunny
EASTERN CONF. PLAYOFF PICTURE:
ROUND 2 W ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 0 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 0 WINNER ROUND. 2
(3) BOSTON 0 WINNER ROUND. 2
(2) TORONTO 0 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1, 4, 5 @ 1:00pm (EST)
^ Pre-Game on TSN 1, 4, 5 @ 12:30pm (EST)
US National TV: ESPN
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -2.0 (-110)
Total: 217 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -130
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Kemba Walker
SG Fred VanVleet Marcus Smart
SF OG Anunoby Jaylen Brown
PF Pascal Siakam Jayson Tatum
C Marc Gasol Daniel Theis
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Left Knee; Surgery
Kyle Lowry AVAILABLE Left Ankle; Sprain
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Javonte Green OUT Right Knee; Surgery
Gordon Hayward OUT Right Ankle; Sprain
Tremont Waters OUT Left Knee; Sprain
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #30 John Goble
Referee #14 Ed Malloy
Umpire #60 James Williams
Alternate #50 Gediminas Petraitis
wear a mask.
wash your hands.
install the Gov't of Canada COVID tracing app.
US Citizens living in Canada. VOTE!

stay safe Raptors fam.❤️

submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

{GAME THREAD} PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 - GAME 4 - TORONTO RAPTORS (3-0) @ Brooklyn Nets (0-3) - 6:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 - GAME 4
Date: Sunday August 23rd, 2020
Current Streak: W7
Broom Status: IN THE BUILDING
Tip Off: 6:30 pm (EST)
Venue: HP Field House (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 32°C (89°F) - SUNNY
PLAYOFF PICTURE:
RD. 1 W RD. 1 W ROUND 2 ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 2 (8) ORLANDO 1 WINNER 1v8 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 3 (5) INDIANA 0 WINNER 4v5 WINNER RD. 2
(3) BOSTON 🧹 (6) PHILADELPHIA 0 (3) BOSTON WINNER RD. 2
(2) TORONTO 3 (7) BROOKLYN 0 WINNER 2v7 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1, 3, 4 @ 6:30pm (EST)
^ Pre-Game on TSN 1 & 4 @ 6:00pm (EST)
US National TV: NBA on TNT
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -13.5 (-110)
Total: 221.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -1300
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Caris LeVert
SG Fred VanVleet Tyler Johnson
SF OG Anunoby Garrett Temple
PF Pascal Siakam Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
C Marc Gasol Jarrett Allen
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Left Bubble; Left Knee Surgery
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson QUESTIONABLE Left Knee; Swelling
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Bubble; Left Knee Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Jamal Crawford OUT Left Hamstring; Strain
Joe Harris OUT Left Bubble; Personal
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #48 Scott Foster
Referee #71 Rodney Mott
Umpire #11 Derrick Collins
Alternate #74 Curtis Blair
wear a mask.
wash your hands.
install the Gov't of Canada COVID tracing app.
stay safe Raptors fam.❤️
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

{GAME THREAD} PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 - GAME 1 - Brooklyn Nets (0-0) @ TORONTO RAPTORS (0-0) - 4:00pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 - GAME 1
Date: Monday August 17th, 2020
Current Streak: W4
Tip Off: 4:00 pm (EST)
Venue: ESPN WWOS Arena (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 31°C (88°F) - MOSTLY SUNNY
PLAYOFF PICTURE:
RD. 1 W RD. 1 W ROUND 2 ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 0 (8) ORLANDO 0 WINNER 1v8 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 0 (5) INDIANA 0 WINNER 4v5 WINNER RD. 2
(3) BOSTON 0 (6) PHILADELPHIA 0 WINNER 3v6 WINNER RD. 2
(2) TORONTO 0 (7) BROOKLYN 0 WINNER 2v7 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: SPORTSNET @ 4:00pm (EST)
Raptors in 30: SPORTSNET ONE (every :30 from 2:30am-2:30pm (Aug. 18)
US National TV: ESPN
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -10.0 (-110)
Total: 221.5 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -550
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Caris LeVert
SG Fred VanVleet Joe Harris
SF OG Anunoby Garrett Temple
PF Pascal Siakam Rodions Kurucs
C Marc Gasol Jarrett Allen
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Jamal Crawford OUT Left Hamstring; Strain
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #30 John Goble
Referee #06 Tony Brown
Umpire #40 Leon Wood
Alternate #45 Brian Forte
wear a mask. get the COVID tracking app. stay safe.❤️
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

{GAME THREAD} PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 - GAME 2 - Brooklyn Nets (0-1) @ TORONTO RAPTORS (1-0) - 1:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 - GAME 2
Date: Wednesday August 19th, 2020
Current Streak: W5
Tip Off: 1:30 pm (EST)
Venue: HP Field House (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 33°C (89°F) - CLOUDY/T-STORMS
PLAYOFF PICTURE:
RD. 1 W RD. 1 W ROUND 2 ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 0 (8) ORLANDO 1 WINNER 1v8 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 1 (5) INDIANA 0 WINNER 4v5 WINNER RD. 2
(3) BOSTON 1 (6) PHILADELPHIA 0 WINNER 3v6 WINNER RD. 2
(2) TORONTO 1 (7) BROOKLYN 0 WINNER 2v7 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1/3/4/5 @ 1:30pm (EST) - Raptors Playoff Pre-Game @ 1:00pm (EST)
Raptors in 30: N/A
US National TV: NBATV
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -11.5 (-110)
Total: 226.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -900
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Caris LeVert
SG Fred VanVleet Joe Harris
SF OG Anunoby Garrett Temple
PF Pascal Siakam Rodions Kurucs
C Marc Gasol Jarrett Allen
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Surgery
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Jamal Crawford OUT Left Hamstring; Strain
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #05 Kane "The Ejector" Fitzgerald
Referee #33 Sean Corbin
Umpire #45 Brian Forte
Alternate #03 Nick Buchert
wear a mask. get the COVID tracking app. stay safe.❤️
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

NFL: Let's talk about teasers (Week 5)

6-point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In my week 1 post, I did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. I'm grateful to u/hyperkinesis247 for inquiring if there's an edge regarding sweethearts. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

Previous Results

The plays last week were:
Off-the-board spread 6 pt 10 pt
Chicago +3 Win
Denver +1½ Win Win
Detroit +3 Win
San Francisco -8 Loss
Tampa Bay -7½ Win
I've been using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. For example, Carolina and Las Vegas both closed at +3 with many books and both covered. But they're not included in the list above because Bovada closed them at +3½. (You can verify the lines at sbrodds.com.)
I'm a Blackjack player. I didn't know the first thing about sports or sports betting when I started this tracking. In hindsight, I've learned that Bovada was a terrible choice. Nonetheless, Bovada was the choice and switching now seems statistically unethical.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
Teaser Year Team Record
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 61-23 72.6%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 63-19 76.8%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-16 76.5%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 16-2 88.9%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 27-10 73.0%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 16-9 64.0%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 17-7 70.8%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 7-2 77.9%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 22-1 95.7%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 24-5 82.8%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 23-4 85.2%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 5-0 100.0%
The chart above counts pushes as losses. You should strongly consider betting at a book that has a "pushes reduce" rule instead.
The reason why my results only count the last three years (2017-2019) is because that's all the time I've had to look at so far. There's no real reason why I'm actively avoiding 2016. I'll be making an effort to look at the 2016 data soon.

Advice

Once upon a time, Wong's strategy was reliable. Bookmakers used to routinely pay -110 for teasers and games tended to be lower-scoring in the past.
But in 2020, the payouts are stingier and NFL offenses are stronger. It would be irresponsible to automatically assume Wong teasers are still a winning strategy today. This post is not a suggestion to bet. Merely, this is an experiment to see if this strategy is still favorable in today's environment.
Before last week, I expressed concern over the fact that our selections were 16-5-1 against the un-teased spread. This is good news if you had bet real money on these games in the past. However, it was a red flag in terms of sustainability moving forward. We have no reason to believe that our win percentage against the un-teased spread should be higher or lower than 50%.
Last week's results helped alleviate those concerns a little bit. The picks were 1-4 against the un-teased spread but still 4-1 in our teasers. It's a step in the right direction, but one week isn't enough of a sample size for me to consider flipping my advice.

This Week

As of the time of this post, the Bears number in today's game is all over the place depending on which book you look at. For my opinion on how I think this situation should be handled, see the Line Shopping section of my post last week. For the purposes of tracking the results, I remain steadfast in using Bovada's closing line.
As of now, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week is:
  • Buffalo +1½
  • Arizona -7½
  • Los Angeles Rams -7½
  • New Orleans -8
My recommendation is to use the closing line whenever possible, but this is especially true for Buffalo. Changing the time of game doesn't usually cause any problems with your bets, but changing the day of game could create headaches. Without getting into the exact details of all of the possible scenarios, let me just succinctly say that betting the Bills game before you know the exact day of game could create controversy.
For the purposes of tracking, Bovada's final line according to sbrodds.com will be used except in cases where that number is obviously and egregiously wrong.

Teasing Totals

There's two ways that a teaser bet can win:
  • Method X: you can beat the regular un-teased number, or
  • Method Y: the game lands among the range of 6 points you gained via line movement ("teaser window").
We've talked about needing a 73.9% hit rate on our teaser legs. This means that if your probability of X is around 50%, then your probability of Y needs to be about 24%. This means that 24% of the results need to fit inside your teaser window.
You can't use teasers as a security blanket. You can't use them defensively. A lot of people treat teasers in the sense that, "I like this pick but let me just give myself a few extra points of wiggle room in case things go wrong." With this logic, it's very hard to get your Y probability up to 24%.
You need to intentionally seek out games that will land in the teaser window. You need to make a deliberate effort to win some games via Method Y. Here is a histogram of all of the final margins in 2017-2019. You can clearly identify the peaks at 3 and 7. (And the numbers in between 3 and 7 are all not-too-shabby either.) If you're intentionally trying to win via Method Y, you'd do well to put 3 and 7 in your teaser window.
Now look at this histogram of all of the final totals in 2017-2019. Where's the peak? What's the "sweet spot" that you want in your teaser window? How are you going to aggressively attack that option?
People have been claiming that they've been successfully teasing totals with their method. Something like "tease the Over when both teams have an 0-2 record" or other equivalent bullshit. I encourage those people to provide real statistics instead of anecdotes. How often are you winning via Method X and how often are you winning via Method Y? First of all, I'm not convinced it's a winning strategy. But even if it was, I can guarantee the long-run results are because X is really large and Y is still rather small. If your X is really large, just bet it straight.
On a normal parlay, two different selections each at -283 parlayed together pays you -120 for the whole ticket. Let's understand that's what a teaser is: it's a parlay with each leg at a -283 price. So if you're going from the straight -110 price (un-teased number) to the new -283 price (teased number), you better make sure that the 6 points you're getting are damn well worth it.
Those interested in teasing totals should look at your book's alternate lines to see what the true cost of 6 points is. (Hint: it's not even close to -283.)
I never said don't play totals. I never said don't play alternate totals. But teasing them is unequivocally wrong.
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(GAME THREAD) GAME #71 - SEEDING GAME #7 - TORONTO RAPTORS (51-19) @ Philadelphia 76ers (42-29) - 6:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: #71 - SEEDING GAME #7
Date: Wednesday August 12th, 2020
Current Streak: W2
Tip Off: 6:30 pm (EST)
Venue: HP Field House (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 32°C (89°F) - MOSTLY CLOUDY
EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
(1) MILWAUKEE🏆🔒 55 16 0.0
(2) TORONTO🔒 51 19 4
(3) BOSTON🔒 48 23 7.5
(4) MIAMI✔️ 44 27 11.5
(5) INDIANA✔️ 43 28 12.5
(6) PHILADELPHIA✔️ 42 29 13.5
(7) BROOKLYN🔒 35 36 20.5
(8) ORLANDO🔒 32 40 24
ATLANTIC DIVISION STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
TORONTO🏆 51 19 0.0
BOSTON 48 23 3.5
PHILADELPHIA 42 29 9.5
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1, 3, 4, 5 - Raptors Pre-Game TSN 1, 3, 4 @ 6:00pm
Raptors in 30: N/A
US National TV: ESPN
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -6.0 (-105)
Total: 222.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -240
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG 🍑 Kyle Lowry 🍑 Shake Milton
SG 💰 Fred VanVleet 💰 Josh Richardson
SF ✊🏾 Norm Powell ✊🏾 Tobias Harris
PF 🌶️ Pascal Siakam 🌶️ Al Horford
C 🍷 Marc Gasol 🍷 ✈️ Joel Embiid ✈️
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 2:00pm report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
OG Anunoby QUESTIONABLE Right Knee; Soreness
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Serge Ibaka QUESTIONABLE Right Knee; Contusion
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Alec Burks OUT Left Foot; Soreness
Ben Simmons OUT Left Knee; Surgery
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #16 David Guthrie
Referee #39 Tyler Ford
Umpire #38 Michael Smith
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

(GAME THREAD) GAME #65 - SEEDING GAME #1 - Los Angeles Lakers (50-14) at TORONTO RAPTORS (46-18) - 8:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?

GAME INFO:

Game Number: #65 - SEEDING GAME #1
Date: SATURDAY AUGUST 1st, 2020
Tip Off: 8:30 pm (EST)
Venue: ESPN WWOS Arena (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 34°C (93°F) - PARTLY SUNNY
Eastern Conference Playoff Picture:
TEAM W L GB
(1) MILWAUKEE✔️ 54 12 0.0
(2) TORONTO✔️ 46 18 7.0
(3) BOSTON✔️ 43 22 10.5
(4) MIAMI✔️ 42 24 12
(5) INDIANA✔️ 39 26 14.5
(6) PHILADELPHIA✔️ 39 26 14.5
(7) ORLANDO 31 35 23
(8) BROOKLYN 30 35 23.5
(9) WASHINGTON 24 41 29.5
Atlantic Division Playoff Picture:
TEAM W L GB
(2) TORONTO✔️ 46 18 0.0
BOSTON✔️ 43 22 3.5
PHILADELPHIA✔️ 39 26 7.5
Current Streak: W4

MEDIA:

Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: SPORTSNET ONE / CITY TV
Raptors in 30: N/A
US National TV: ESPN
Legal Streams:
Radio:

UNIFORMS:

BOXSCORES:

BETTING INFO:

Spread: Raptors +2.5 (-115)
Total: 223.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors +110

EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:

POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG 🍑 Kyle Lowry 🍑 👑 Lebron James 👑
SG 💰 Fred VanVleet 💰 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF 🧣 OG Anunoby 🧣 💲 Danny Green 💲
PF 🌶️ Pascal Siakam 🌶️ Anthony Davis
C 👨🏿‍🍳 Serge Ibaka 👨🏿‍🍳 JaVale McGee

INJURY REPORT:

(as of 5:30pm report)
NAME STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Soreness
NAME STATUS INJURY
Anthony Davis PROBABLE Right Eye
Lebron James PROBABLE Right Groin
Kyle Kuzma PROBABLE Right Ankle
Rajon Rondo OUT Right Thumb

NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:

Position Number Name
Crew Chief #19 James Capers
Referee #45 Brian Forte
Umpire #54 Ray Acosta
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

{GAME THREAD} PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 - GAME 3 - TORONTO RAPTORS (2-0) @ Brooklyn Nets (0-2) - 1:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: 2020 PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 - GAME 3
Date: Friday August 21st, 2020
Current Streak: W6
Tip Off: 1:30 pm (EST)
Venue: HP Field House (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 29°C (84°F) - CLOUDY
PLAYOFF PICTURE:
RD. 1 W RD. 1 W ROUND 2 ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE 1 (8) ORLANDO 1 WINNER 1v8 XXXXX
(4) MIAMI 2 (5) INDIANA 0 WINNER 4v5 WINNER RD. 2
(3) BOSTON 2 (6) PHILADELPHIA 0 WINNER 3v6 WINNER RD. 2
(2) TORONTO 2 (7) BROOKLYN 0 WINNER 2v7 XXXXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: SPORTSNET & SPORTSNET ONE @ 1:30pm (EST) - Raptors Pre-Game @ 1:00pm (EST)
Raptors in 30: N/A
US National TV: NBATV
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -11.0 (-110)
Total: 219.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -600
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG Kyle Lowry Caris LeVert
SG Fred VanVleet Garrett Temple
SF OG Anunoby Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
PF Pascal Siakam Rodions Kurucs
C Marc Gasol Jarrett Allen
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Left Bubble; Left Knee Surgery
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson QUESTIONABLE Left Knee; Swelling
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Bubble; Left Knee Surgery
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Jamal Crawford OUT Left Hamstring; Strain
Joe Harris OUT Left Bubble; Personal
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #15 Zach Zarba
Referee #26 Pat Fraher
Umpire #34 Kevin Cutler
Alternate #36 Brent Barnaky
wear a mask. get the COVID tracking app. stay safe.❤️
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

(GAME THREAD) GAME #68 - SEEDING GAME #4 - Boston Celtics (45-23) @ TORONTO RAPTORS (49-18) - 9:00pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: #68 - SEEDING GAME #4
Date: Friday August 7th, 2020
Current Streak: 🔥W7🔥
Tip Off: 9:00 pm (EST)
Venue: ESPN WWOS Arena (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 33°C (91°F) - MOSTLY CLOUDY
EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
(1) MILWAUKEE🏆 55 14 0.0
(2) TORONTO✔️ 49 18 5.0
(3) BOSTON✔️ 45 23 9.5
(4) MIAMI✔️ 43 26 12
(5) INDIANA✔️ 42 27 13
(6) PHILADELPHIA✔️ 41 27 13.5
(7) BROOKLYN 32 36 22.5
(8) ORLANDO 32 37 23
(9) WASHINGTON 24 44 30.5
ATLANTIC DIVISION STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
TORONTO✔️ 49 18 0.0
BOSTON✔️ 45 23 4.5
PHILADELPHIA✔️ 41 27 8.5
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1 & 4 @ 9:00PM(EST) / TSN 3 & 5 @ 10:00PM(EST)
Raptors in 30: N/A
US National TV: TNT
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -2.0 (-110)
Total: 220.5 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -125
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG 🍑 Kyle Lowry 🍑 Kemba Walker
SG 💰 Fred VanVleet 💰 Jaylen Brown
SF 🧣 OG Anunoby 🧣 Jason Tatum
PF 🌶️ Pascal Siakam 🌶️ Gordon Hayward
C 🍷 Marc Gasol 🍷 Daniel Theis
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 2:00pm report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett GTD Right Knee; Soreness
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Soreness
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
NONE OUT Luck of the Irish
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #05 Kane Fitzgerald
Referee #24 Kevin Scott
Umpire #68 Jacyn Goble
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

(GAME THREAD) GAME #70 - SEEDING GAME #6 - TORONTO RAPTORS (50-19) @ Milwaukee Bucks (55-15) - 6:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: #70 - SEEDING GAME #6
Date: Monday August 10th, 2020
Current Streak: W1
Tip Off: 6:30 pm (EST)
Venue: HP Field House (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 34°C (93°F) - PARTLY SUNNY
EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
(1) MILWAUKEE🏆🔒 55 15 0.0
(2) TORONTO🔒 50 19 4.5
(3) BOSTON🔒 47 23 8
(4) MIAMI✔️ 43 27 12
(5) INDIANA✔️ 43 27 12
(6) PHILADELPHIA✔️ 42 28 13
(7) BROOKLYN🔒 33 36 21.5
(8) ORLANDO🔒 32 38 23
ATLANTIC DIVISION STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
TORONTO🏆 50 19 0.0
BOSTON 47 23 3.5
PHILADELPHIA 42 28 8.5
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: SPORTSNET (ALL CHANNELS) @ 6:30pm(EST) - Raptors Pre-Game @ 6:00pm(EST)
Raptors in 30: SPORTSNET ONE - every 30 mins, starting at 12:30am until 1:00pm (Aug 11th)
US National TV: ESPN
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors +5.5 (-110)
Total: 225.5 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors +185
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG 🍑 Kyle Lowry (Q) 🍑 Eric Bledsoe
SG 💰 Fred VanVleet (Q) 💰 Wesley Matthews
SF 🧣 OG Anunoby 🧣 Khris Middleton
PF 🌶️ Pascal Siakam 🌶️ Marvin Williams
C 🍷 Marc Gasol 🍷 Brook Lopez
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 2:00pm report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Serge Ibaka QUESTIONABLE Right Knee; Contusion
Kyle Lowry QUESTIONABLE Lower Back; Soreness
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
Fred VanVleet QUESTIONABLE Right Knee; Hyperextension
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Giannis Antetokounmpo OUT Tooth; Oral Surgery
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #48 Scott Foster
Referee #56 Mark Ayotte
Umpire #77 Karl Lane
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

(GAME THREAD) GAME #66 - SEEDING GAME #2 - TORONTO RAPTORS (47-18) @ Miami Heat (42-24) - 1:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?

GAME INFO:

Game Number: #66 - SEEDING GAME #2
Date: Monday August 3rd, 2020
Tip Off: 1:30 pm (EST)
Venue: HP Field House (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 31°C (89°F) - MOSTLY CLOUDY
Eastern Conference Playoff Picture:
TEAM W L GB
(1) MILWAUKEE✔️ 54 13 0.0
(2) TORONTO✔️ 47 18 6.0
(3) BOSTON✔️ 44 22 9.5
(4) MIAMI✔️ 42 24 11.5
(5) INDIANA✔️ 40 26 13.5
(6) PHILADELPHIA✔️ 39 27 14.5
(7) ORLANDO 32 35 22
(8) BROOKLYN 31 35 22.5
(9) WASHINGTON 24 42 29.5
Atlantic Division Playoff Picture:
TEAM W L GB
(2) TORONTO✔️ 47 18 0.0
BOSTON✔️ 44 22 3.5
PHILADELPHIA✔️ 39 27 8.5
Current Streak: 🔥W5🔥

MEDIA:

Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: SPORTSNET ONE
Raptors Rewind: SPORTSNET 1 - 2:00AM (Aug, 4th)
US National TV: NBA TV
Legal Streams:
Radio:

UNIFORMS:

BOXSCORES:

BETTING INFO:

Spread: Raptors -3.5 (-105)
Total: 221.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -165

EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:

POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG 🍑 Kyle Lowry 🍑 Kendrick Nunn
SG 💰 Fred VanVleet 💰 Duncan Robinson
SF 🧣 OG Anunoby 🧣 Jimmy Butler
PF 🌶️ Pascal Siakam 🌶️ Jae Crowder
C 🍷 Marc Gasol 🍷 Bam Adebayo

INJURY REPORT:

(as of 11:00am report)
NAME STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Soreness
NAME STATUS INJURY
Bam Adebayo PROBABLE Right Quad
Goran Dragix PROBABLE Back

NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:

Position Number Name
Crew Chief #16 David Guthrie
Referee #23 Tre Maddox
Umpire #40 Leon Wood
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

(GAME THREAD) GAME #69 - SEEDING GAME #5 - Vancouver Grizzlies (33-37) at TORONTO RAPTORS (49-19) - 2:00pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: #69 - SEEDING GAME #5
Date: Sunday August 9th, 2020
Current Streak: 🧊L1🧊
Tip Off: 2:00 pm (EST)
Venue: VISA Athletic Center (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 32°C (89°F) - MOSTLY SUNNY
EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
(1) MILWAUKEE🏆 55 14 0.0
(2) TORONTO✔️ 49 19 5
(3) BOSTON✔️ 46 23 8.5
(4) MIAMI✔️ 43 27 12
(5) INDIANA✔️ 43 27 12
(6) PHILADELPHIA✔️ 42 27 12.5
(7) BROOKLYN✔️ 33 36 21.5
(8) ORLANDO✔️ 32 38 23
ATLANTIC DIVISION STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
TORONTO 49 19 0.0
BOSTON 46 23 3.5
PHILADELPHIA 42 27 7.5
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1 & 4 @ 2:00PM(EST) - Raptors Game Day @ 1:30pm(EST)
Raptors in 30: N/A
US National TV: N/A
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -6.5 (-110)
Total: 221.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -270
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG 🍑 Kyle Lowry 🍑 Ja Morant
SG 💰 Fred VanVleet 💰 Dillon Brooks
SF 🧣 OG Anunoby 🧣 Kyle Anderson
PF 🌶️ Pascal Siakam 🌶️ Brandon Clarke
C 🍷 Marc Gasol 🍷 Jonas Valančiūnas
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Serge Ibaka PROBABLE Right Eye; Scratch
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
Paul Watson Jr. DOUBTFUL Back; Soreness
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Jaren Jackson Jr. OUT Left Knee
Tyus Jones OUT Right Knee
Justise Winslow OUT Left Hip
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #04 Sean Wright
Referee #50 Gediminas Petraitis
Umpire #34 Kevin Cutler
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

(GAME THREAD) GAME #72 - SEEDING GAME #8 - Denver Nuggets (46-26) @ RAPTORS 905 (52-19) - 1:30pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: #72 - SEEDING GAME #8
Date: Friday August 14th, 2020
Current Streak: W3
Tip Off: 1:30 pm (EST)
Venue: HP Field House (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 32°C (89°F) - MOSTLY SUNNY
PLAYOFF PICTURE:
ROUND 1 ROUND 2 ECF
(1) MILWAUKEE🏆 v. (8) ORLANDO WINNER 1v8 XXX
(4) MIAMI v. (5) INDIANA WINNER 4v5 WINNER RD. 2
(2) TORONTO v. (7) BROOKLYN WINNER 2v7 WINNER RD. 2
(3) BOSTON v. (6) PHILADELPHIA WINNER 3v6 XXX
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: TSN 1, 3, 4, 5 - Raptors Pre-Game TSN 1, 3, 4 @ 1:00pm
Raptors in 30: N/A
US National TV: N/A
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors +2.0 (-105)
Total: 222.0 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors +110
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG 😷 Terence Davis II 😷 Jamal Murray
SG 🎯 Matt Thomas 🎯 Torrey Craig
SF ✊🏾 Norm Powell ✊🏾 Michael Porter Jr.
PF 💪🏿 R. Hollis Jefferson 💪🏿 Paul Millsap
C 🍷 Marc Gasol 🍷 Nikola Jokic
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 11:00am report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
OG Anunoby OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Serge Ibaka OUT Right Knee; Contusion
Kyle Lowry OUT Rest
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Surgery
Pascal Siakam OUT Rest
Fred VanVleet OUT Rest
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Will Barton OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Vlatko Cancar OUT Left Foot; Fracture
Gary Harris OUT Right Hip; Muscle Strain
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #25 Tony Brothers
Referee #06 Tony Brown
Umpire #74 Curtis Blair
wear a mask. get the COVID tracking app. stay safe.❤️
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

(GAME THREAD) GAME #67 - SEEDING GAME #3 - TORONTO RAPTORS (48-18) @ Orlando Magic (32-36) - 8:00pm (EST)

🚨REMINDER🚨: WHAT GETS ME BANNED FROM /torontoraptors?
GAME INFO:
Game Number: #67 - SEEDING GAME #3
Date: Wednesday August 5th, 2020
Current Streak: 🔥W6🔥
Tip Off: 8:00 pm (EST)
Venue: VISA Athletic Center (Orlando, Florida)
Weather: 26°C (79°F) - THUNDERSTORMS
EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
(1) MILWAUKEE✔️ 54 14 0.0
(2) TORONTO✔️ 48 18 5.0
(3) BOSTON✔️ 44 23 9.5
(4) MIAMI✔️ 43 25 11
(5) INDIANA✔️ 42 26 12
(6) PHILADELPHIA✔️ 40 27 13.5
(7) BROOKLYN 32 35 21.5
(8) ORLANDO 32 36 22
(9) WASHINGTON 24 43 29.5
ATLANTIC DIVISION STANDINGS:
TEAM W L GB
(2) TORONTO✔️ 48 18 0.0
BOSTON✔️ 44 23 4.5
PHILADELPHIA✔️ 40 27 8.5
MEDIA:
Game Notes: TORONTO RAPTORS
Canadian TV: SPORTSNET ONE - RAPTORS PRE-GAME @ 7:30PM(EST)
Raptors in 30: SPORTSNET ONE - 2:30AM(EST)/3:30AM(EST)/4:30/AM(EST) (Aug. 6th)
US National TV: N/A
Legal Streams:
Radio:
UNIFORMS:
BOXSCORES:
BETTING INFO:
Spread: Raptors -7.5 (-110)
Total: 222.5 (-110)
Money Line: Raptors -320
EXPECTED STARTING LINE UPS:
POSITION RAPTORS OPPONENT
PG 🍑 Kyle Lowry 🍑 DJ Augustin
SG 💰 Fred VanVleet 💰 Evan Fournier
SF 🧣 OG Anunoby 🧣 James Ennis
PF 🌶️ Pascal Siakam 🌶️ Aaron Gordon
C 🍷 Marc Gasol 🍷 Nikola Vucevic
INJURY REPORT:
(as of 2:00pm report)
RAPTORS STATUS INJURY
Oshae Brissett OUT Right Knee; Soreness
Patrick McCaw OUT Left Knee; Soreness
OPPONENT STATUS INJURY
Michael Carter-Williams OUT Left Foot
Jonathan Isaac OUT Left Knee
NBA REFEREE ASSIGNMENTS:
POSITION NUMBER NAME
Crew Chief #60 James Williams
Referee #38 Michael Smith
Umpire #27 Mitchell Ervin
submitted by absolutkaos to torontoraptors [link] [comments]

Elephants on the Field: Week 2

Elephants

Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post.
Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes.
Last week I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss.
There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.

Things I'm right about (so far):

1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor:
With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.
A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines.
If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway).
And if you still don't believe me, watch his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes.
2.Browns Offense is fine:
Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.
Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent.
So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt.
I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield.
3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1
Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.
Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season.
And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here.
Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast.
Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).

Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!

HA! Next section!

Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:

1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good.
If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.
Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times.
Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green all night:
A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward.
Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.
Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target.
2. Rodgers is back.
...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.
Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts.
Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach.
Rodgers is pff top-graded QB right now btw.

Fresh takes:

1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL.
The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant.
Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position.
They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it.
2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield.
Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table.
Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...in high school:
Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.
He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out.
A couple of elephants make this one a good bet:
(a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2.
(b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done).
Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week:

https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9
The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game.
Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP.
Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game.
No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt.
3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player.
Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets.
Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic.
One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field.
4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade:
Jets
Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams.
Vikings
Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2.
Teams to be worried about:
Broncos
Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go.
Detroit
Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral.
Texans
BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.

Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions

WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.
  1. JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
  2. Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
  3. Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
  4. Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.
I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!


Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck!

EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon.
EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.
submitted by atrophiedambitions to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

[Game Preview] Week 2 - Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles(0-1)

Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles season didn’t have the start they were looking for week 1 as they opened the season without their starting LT, RT, RG, RB, DT and WR and struggled against the Washington Football team to open their season with a loss. Luckily they will get two of those starters back this week in running back Miles Sanders and RT Lane Johnson. Both will be welcome additions as the Eagles struggled to block anyone against the Football Team both on the line and from the running back position. Additionally, getting a running game going will greatly help slow the pass rush which will be impressive as the Rams posted one of the best pressure rates last week led by All-Pro Aaron Donald. Hopefully Doug Pederson learns from his mistakes of last week and gets Carson moving with some designed rollouts and mixes up his play-calling more to establish the run. If Doug tries to do the same thing as last week it will be a long day for Carson and Donald will feast. On the other side of the ball, Schwartz had Slay follow McLaurin last week and it worked as Slay shut McLaurin down, but that is more difficult this week as the Rams have two talented receivers in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The Eagles will need to see how Maddox holds up on the outside with a bigger challenge this week. With the struggles of the Eagles offense and their injuries on that side of the ball, the Eagles will need their defenses to limit the quick scoring Rams offense or it will be a long day. Should be a good test for the Eagles to rebound after falling flat out of the gate last week. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to [join us on Discord]https://discord.gg/HwwBbM3) during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest
Date
Sunday, September 20th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
1:00 PM - Eastern Lincoln Financial Field
12:00 PM - Central 1020 Pattison Ave
11:00 AM - Mountain Philadelphia, PA 19148
10L00 AM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 62°F
Feels Like: 62°F
Forecast: Clear. Clear throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 0%
Wind: Northeast 10 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Even
OveUnder: 45.5
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 0-1, Los Angeles 0-1
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Monday’s game to a national audience. Kevin Kugler will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Spielman will provide analysis. Laura Okmin will report from the sideline.
TV Map - Week 2 TV Coverage Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Rams Radio
Rams Radio J.B. Long will handle the play-by-play duties and former pro bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew will provide analysis. D'Marco Farr will report from the sidelines.
National Radio
N/A
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Rams Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 98 (Streaming 825) SIRI 156 (Streaming 818)
XM Radio XM 231 (Streaming 825) (Streaming 818)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 231 (Streaming 825) SXM 386 (Streaming 818)
Eagles Social Media Rams Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: snaptherams
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Football Team 1-0 1.000 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0 27 17 +10 1W
Eagles 0-1 .000 0-0 0-1 0-1 0-1 17 27 -10 1L
Cowboys 0-1 .000 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-1 17 20 -3 1L
Giants 0-1 .000 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 16 26 -10 1L
Series Information
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Los Angeles Rams (Philadelphia Eagles lead series, 22-19-1)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
September 21, 1937 at Philadelphia Municipal Stadium, Philadelphia, PA. Cleveland Rams 21 Philadelphia Eagles 3
Points Leader
Philadelphia Eagles lead the Los Angeles Rams (843-842)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 2-0 against the Rams
Sean McVay: 0-2 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Sean McVay: Pederson leads 2-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Rams: 1-0
Jared Goff: Against Eagles: 0-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Jared Goff: Wentz leads 1-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead Rams: 2-0
Record @ Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: Rams lead Eagles 5-4-1
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 21 - Rams No. 09
Record
Eagles: 0-1
Rams: 1-0
Last Meeting
Sunday, December 12th, 2018
Eagles 30 - Rams 23
Nick Foles filled in for the injured Carson Wentz, taking up his spot under center after three months without game action. Foles promptly recaptured the magic, passing for 270 yards and confidently leading the Eagles to a 30-23 win over the Rams on Sunday night with plenty of help from his defense and his playmakers. Foles got plenty of help from his running game as Wendell Smallwood rushed for two touchdowns and rookie Josh Adams ran for another score as the Eagles (7-7) kept their playoff hopes quite viable with a gritty victory over the Rams (11-3), who lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time in coach Sean McVay's tenure.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last Meeting at Site
Sunday December 10th, 2017
Eagles 43 - Rams 35
Carson Wentz threw for 291 yards and four touchdowns before leaving with a knee injury and Jake Elliott kicked the go-ahead 33-yard field goal with 3:45 left for the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Los Angeles Rams 43-35 in a thriller Sunday to clinch the NFC East title.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
12/16/18 Eagles Rams 30-23
12/10/17 Eagles Rams 43-35
10/05/14 Eagles Rams 34-28
09/11/11 Eagles Rams 31-13
09/07/08 Eagles Rams 38-3
12/18/05 Eagles Rams 17-16
12/27/04 Rams Eagles 20-7
12/01/02 Eagles Rams 10-3
01/27/02 Rams Eagles 29-24
09/09/01 Rams Eagles 20-17
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Rams Rams
2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 2 - "Expert" Picks
2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Rams Season Stats
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 34 42 57.1% 270 2 3 72.5
Goff 20 31 64.5% 275 0 1 79.4
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Scott 9 35 35 3.9 0
Brown 18 79 79.9 4.4 2
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Goedert 8 101 101 12.6 1
Woods 6 105 105.0 17.5 0
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Sweat 1 3
Donald/Floyd/Brockers 1.0 3
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Gerry 10 5 5 0.0
Fuller 8 5 3 0.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
N/A 0 0
N/A 0 0
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 5 268 62 53.6 50.2 3 0 0
Hekker 3 142 58 47.3 40.7 2 0 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 2 1 50.0% 38 2/2
Sloman 3 2 66.6% 35 2/2
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
NA 0 0 0 0 0
Webster 1 20.0 20.0 40 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Raegor 2 6 3.0 6 0 2
N/A 0 0 0 0 0 0
League Rankings 2020
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Rams Stat Rams Rank
Total Offense 265.0 29th 422.0 5th
Rush Offense 57.0 30th 153.0 6th
Pass Offense 208.0 T-21st 269.0 8th
Points Per Game 17.0 T-23rd 20.0 T-19th
3rd-Down Offense 35.7% 23rd 52.9 8th
4th-Down Offense 0.0% T-17th 100.0 T-1st
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 50.0% T-18th 40.0% T-25th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Rams Stat Rams Rank
Total Defense 239.0 1st 380.0 22nd
Rush Defense 80.0 5th 136.0 22nd
Pass Defense 159.0 3rd 244.0 20th
Points Per Game 27.0 T-21st 17.0 T-8th
3rd-Down Defense 27.8% 5th 25.0% T-3rd
4th-Down Defense 50.0% T-19th 33.3% T-17th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 75.0% T-20th 50.0% T-9th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Rams Stat Rams Rank
Turnover Diff. -3 31st -1 T-19th
Penalties Per Game 3.0 T-2nd 5.0 T-8th
Penalty Yards Per Game 20.0 T-2nd 34.0 6th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - In a near-reversal of the previous season's opener, the Eagles scored the first 17 points, only for the Washington Football Team to then shut their offense out for the remainder of the afternoon. Meanwhile, Washington's offense scored 27 unanswered points, and the defense sacked Carson Wentz eight times, recorded two interceptions, and forced three fumbles. With the loss, Philadelphia's six-game winning streak against Washington was snapped dating back to Week 14 of the 2016 season, and the Eagles lost the first game of the season since 2015.
Rams - Playing their first game ever in their brand-new home at SoFi Stadium, the Rams held off the Cowboys in a close battle of NFC contenders. Receiving the opening kickoff (from former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein), Los Angeles drove 75 yards in seven plays, with Malcolm Brown scoring the new stadium's first touchdown on a 1-yard run. Rookie kicker Samuel Sloman missed on his first field goal attempt, a 29-yard try that bounced off the left upright near the end of the first quarter, but later was successful on field goals of 35 and 31 yards in the second quarter. However, Dallas took a 14-13 halftime lead as Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott scored on both a touchdown run and a touchdown reception. The Rams reclaimed the lead as Malcolm Brown (who finished with a team-high 18 rushes for 79 yards) scored his second touchdown of the game on a 2-yard run midway through the third quarter to put Los Angeles ahead 20-14. Zuerlein converted a 33-yard field goal late in the third quarter, but it would be as close as the Cowboys would get. Rookie safety Jordan Fuller led the Rams with eight total tackles, including a key tackle of Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb on a fourth-and-3 play at the Rams' 9-yard line, just one yard short of a first down to kill a Dallas scoring drive.
Connections
Rams QB Jared Goff and Eagles QB Carson Wentz were selected 1st and 2nd in the 2016 NFL draft after both teams traded up.
Eagles S Rodney McLeod played for the Rams from 2012-16.
Eagles CB Nickell Robey-Coleman played for the Rams from 2017-19.
Eagles LB coach Ken Fajole was defensive coordinator of the Rams for three seasons from 2009−2011.
Eagles TE Zach Ertz went to Stanford (2009-13) and is from Orange County, CA.
Eagles Director of Sports Performance Ted Rath worked for the Rams from 2017-2019 as their Strength and Conditioning Coach (2017) and Director of Strength Training and Performance (2018-2019).
Eagles Special assistant to the general manager Connor Barwin played for the Rams in 2018.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Rams
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) DT Aaron Donald (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) CB Jalen Ramsey
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Brad Allen
Philadelphia has produced a 22-19-1 (.536) record in the all-time series vs. Los Angeles. The Eagles own a 6-game winning streak against the Rams, scoring 30+ points in 5 straight contests.
Philadelphia is 15-8 (.652) in home games vs. Los Angeles, with victories in each of the last 2 such meetings (last: W, 34-28 on 10/5/14 at Lincoln Financial Field).
The Eagles are 23-9 (.719) at home in the regular season under head coach Doug Pederson, which marks the 5th-best home winning percentage in the NFL since 2016, trailing only New En-gland (.818, 27-6), Baltimore (.758, 25-8), Kansas City (.758, 25-8) and New Orleans (.727, 24-9).
Philadelphia has captured all 4 of its home openers with Doug Pederson at the helm (since 2016). Pederson is one of only two head coaches in Eagles history to win each of their first 4 home openers with the team, joining Joe Kuharich (1964-67).
In Week 1 at Washington, Philadelphia allowed only 239 total yards (80 rushing, 5th; 159 passing, 3rd), which were the fewest by any defense in the NFL during kickoff weekend. The Eagles limited Washington to just 27.8% (5-of-18) on third downs, which was also the 5th-best mark in the league.
Draft Picks
Eagles Rams
WR Jalen Raegor RB Cam Akers
QB Jalen Hurts WR Van Jefferson
LB Davion Taylor OLB Terrell Lewis
S K’Von Wallace S Terrel Burgess
OT Jack Driscoll TE Brycen Hopkins
WR John Hightower S Jordan Fuller
LB Shaun Bradley LB Clay Johnston
WR Quez Watkins K Sam Sloman
OT Prince Tega Wanogho G Tremayne Achrum
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Rams
S Will Parks DT A’Shawn Robinson
DT Javon Hargrave OLB Leonard Floyd
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
CB Darius Slay
S Sean Davis
WR Cody Latimer
CB Kendell Fuller
RB JD McKissic
G Wes Schweitzer
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Rams
S Malcom Jenkins DE Dante Fowler Jr.
CB Ronald Darby RB Todd Gurley
RB Jordan Howard WR Brandin Cooks
WR Nelson Agholor LB Cory Littleton
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai S Eric Weddle
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
RB Darren Sproles WR Jojo Natson
DT Timmy Jernigan WR Mike Thomas
LB Nigel Bradham LB Clay Matthews
QB Blake Bortles
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (99) needs 1 passing TDs for 100 career passing TDs.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6322) needs 145 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (51) needs 3.5 sacks to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (48) needs 2.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27) needs 1 sack to move up to 19th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Darwin Walker
Rams WR Cooper Kupp (2636) needs 28 yards to move up to 16th on the Rams all-time receiving list passing WR Carroll Dale
Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (join.profootballfocus.com/edge/)
WDB Matchups (CAPS = expected shadow coverage)
Stats to Know
Pressure Rate
It doesn’t take advanced stats to know that Wentz spent most of Sunday under significant pressure. Washington sacked him eight times behind a makeshift offensive line that struggled to contain the Football Team’s pass rush. The Eagles allowed a 34% pressure rate Sunday, according to ESPN Next Gen Stats. That was the third-worst in the NFL. Five different Washington players generated at least four pressures. And it doesn’t get any easier against the Rams. The Cowboys allowed a 40.5% pressure rate Sunday night in their loss to the Rams, which was the second-worst mark of Week 1. And a big reason for that was Rams star Aaron Donald. Donald — the six-time Pro Bowler, five-time All-Pro and two-time AP Defensive Player of the Year who has 44 sacks over the past three seasons — posted a 28.6% pressure rate on Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott himself. He pressured Prescott 10 times for 35 pass rushes and finished with four tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss and four quarterback hits. According to Next Gen Stats, Donald’s pressure rate over the past three seasons is 13.5%, 13.9% and 14.6%. The Eagles offensive line is going to have to be ready or it is going to be another long Sunday for Carson Wentz.
Matchups to Watch
Carson Wentz vs. Himself
I note this matchup not to downplay the Rams and what they bring to the table, but to note that Wentz had plenty of mistakes that ultimately cost us the week 1 matchup. Change nothing of the game last week, bad OL, questionable scheming especially in the second half, Carson Wentz playing better wins us the game. Things were bad around him and he actively made them worse at times. These two things can be true: Wentz cost us the week 1 game and he should bounce back because he is a really good QB. This isn't the sky is falling, #TankForTrevor blurb, it's simply acknowledging the biggest change from week 1 to week 2 that would aid in a victory - Carson Wentz returning to form. There was also a lot of good last week, namely the first half! Check out the first TD throw to Ertz. Short, compressed field where he needs to make a snap decision and he comes off his first read (JJAW) and hits Ertz for 6. This is a great play by Wentz where he showed how good he is capping off a great drive. We need more of this consistency. Wentz was even missing on staples of the offense. He was erratic in the pocket and regularly off target. I love hero ball, I hate when QBs play scared, but better urgency and avoiding negative plays in the pocket would go a long way in smoothing out the rough edges of his game. It's infuriating to have some of the same issues he had in year 3 continue in year 5. Regardless, Wentz is a really good QB, so he should be expected to bounce back from a bad game every QB has once in a while. It just needs to happen quickly so the Eagles don't fall behind in the young season. This Rams secondary has a phenomenal CB in Jalen Ramsey and a really good young safety in John Johnson III; they aren't slouches. Wentz needs to be better and it would be surprising if he isn't.
Eagles (downright) Offensive Line vs. Aaron Donald and the Rams Pass Rush
Washington may have a better, deeper defensive line but they don't have Aaron Donald. He is so good he lifts a pass rush up to the top tiers of the league on his own given his dominance and versatility. Donald isn't just a Defensive Tackle; he'll line up inside and outside while wrecking every part of the OL he can along the way. Just look at what Baldy has in his review for him this week. This is a problematic matchup for Philly given their patchwork offensive line. Even though there were positive things some of the new guys did, they made a lot of mistakes, and will continue to do so in their young careers. The last time the Eagles played the Rams in 2018, Philly held Donald to 2 total pressures in probably his most ineffective game during the course of his DPOY season. The difference between that Eagles OL and this one is the health. Philly won't have a healthy Brandon Brooks; while they'll have Lane Johnson again it'll be in his first start of the season, he's coming off a late summer ankle procedure. So his effectiveness is still TBD. JP, who also played in that game, has also declined a considerable amount since then. One player returning to the field Sunday that should also give the Eagles a boost in pass protection is Miles Sanders. Not only is Sanders the best runner on the team, he's also the best pass blocking running back on the team. This alone won't stop Donald, but it should help. This defensive front from the Rams can get pushed around in the run game (more on that later) but can absolutely get after it in the pass rush department. Dallas doesn't have the line it used to either and Dak was under pressure at a roughly 42% rate, among the worst in week 1. The return of Lane Johnson should increase the effectiveness of this OL a considerable amount but given the new parts there will still be an adjustment period. This unit needs to come together quickly and the coaching staff needs to actually focus their game plan on helping their OL much more so than they did in week 1. Otherwise, expect Donald and his homies to bring the pain up front.
Eagles Pass Rush vs Rams OL
Even with some of the sustained injuries on this roster, the Eagles still have a formidable pass rush and flashed it quite a bit in week 1. The box score stats are highly deceiving in this area as Washington shifted their game plan quite a bit as the game went along. Philly pressured Haskins at a 30% clip last week. That number isn't great considering the state of Washington's offensive line. However, Haskins had the quickest time to throw in the NFL in week 1 with an average time to throw of 2.13 seconds. It's extremely difficult to pressure QBs when they get the ball out that quickly. Last week, Jared Goff was 8th in the NFL in this category, which will present some challenges for the Eagles. Dallas pressured Goff at a 20% clip last week, which is a horrendous number. Goff is a good QB and will slice you up if you don't get to him. But when you do, oftentimes he's effectively standing in quick sand as he was a bottom 8 QB under pressure (by Rating) in 2019. It's imperative this defensive front plays well this week. We already saw Malik Jackson return to form, now we need Fletcher Cox. Philly should get Brandon Graham (concussion) and Derek Barnett (hammy) back this week which should increase the effectiveness of the pass rush. Josh Sweat has also shown tremendous growth in year 3 having the best game of his career this past Sunday with TY McGill flashing in limited snaps. This offensive line from the Rams underwent a mini make-over this offseason but still has some question marks up front. This will be a real test for them as the Eagles pass rush is much more formidable than the one Dallas offers. Furthermore, this is a defensive staff that has consistently gotten to Goff of late. Given the changes on both squads, this is a good measuring stick game in the trenches.
Eagles Coverage vs Rams Receivers
Jim Schwartz had Sean McVay's number in their most recent matchup in 2018 so I am curious to see who gets the upper hand this time around. The Rams have a really good WR room with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Josh Reynolds. They also have a good tight end in Tyler Higbee. Philly has their work cut out for them this week as the Rams are much deeper than Washington. The Rams passing attack was predicated on the short, quick game with a lot of motions and play action last week. Carson Wentz led the NFL in Average Intended Air Yards while Jared Goff was last. Goff's Average Intended Air Yards were 4.3 per attempt with roughly half his passing attempts coming within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Getting the ball to Goff's first read and out of his hands quickly is key as he can be an adventure when he is forced to hold onto the ball. McVay is really good at disguising what the Rams will do running multiple plays out of similar looks. Lastly, their receivers are great at getting quick separation and great getting yards after the catch. The defensive game plan for Philly in the secondary should look quite different this week than it did last week. There isn't one receiver the Eagles can key on for Slay to take away. I'd bet Schwartz moves him around quite a bit but with Woods as the primary recipient of special attention. Slay looked every bit as good as you'd expect last week and that's a huge addition to this secondary. One area of concern I have for Philly is the middle of the defense. This Eagles LB group is among the worst in the NFL in coverage; McVay is going to look to attack that relentlessly all game long. He did the same thing to Dallas last week. It was encouraging to see Rodney McLeod bounce back after a poor 2019 as he was every bit as spry as he once was. The rest of the middle of this defense leaves a lot to be desired. Either way, this is a deeper Rams receiving room, with a creative play-caller, and a better passer than the Eagles just faced. There was a lot of good to take from the defensive performance last week but they face a significant test Sunday in the Rams.
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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