Golf Betting Preview: WGC-HSBC Champions Predictions, Odds ...

Hey guys. The last two weeks have been amazing for the golf picks. Last week I gave out 4 picks for top 5 finishes and two placed (Sungjae IM +650 and Leishman +825). The people who tailed netted over 10 units on futures bets alone (20+u with head to head match-ups) so I figured we could have some fun with TPC.
Important factors: 8 of the last 10 TPC champions had multiple top 10 finishes in the weeks leading up to this tourney. That is a stat that can not and will not be over looked. The TPC Stadium course is beatable by iron play, putting, and consistent recent form.
Recommended picks:
Let's get the big fat hedge out of the way:
Rory: +750 to win (0.5U) These odds sound absurd for a tournament with all world class competition, but Rory dominated this course last year for a victory. HE HAS BEEN TOP 5 in his last 6 tournaments. Everything points to a victory. I call him the big fat hedge because unlike our other picks, if Rory is leading on Friday/Saturday, there is NO WAY you will be able to get value out of him. He is essentially a hedge to all of our other picks. If a 20/1 is leading for you on Sunday, and Rory is 3 shots back, his odds may be even worse. He is simply too good.
NOW ONTO THE FUN STUFF
Adam Scott +2800 to win (0.25U) / +350 Top 10 (0.25U) : Adam Scott plays this course so well. Previous winner and multiple top 10's, as well as great recent form (win at Riviera two weeks back, win in Australia, T-11 WGC HSBC) Remember the tidbit about recent form. Although he didn't make the cut last week, those conditions were barbaric and I expect a bounce.
Sungjae IM +2500 to win (0.25U) / +325 Top 10 (0.5U) : In my opinion, Sungjae IM is a top 5 golfer in the world. The 2019 Rookie of the year is red hot and we've been riding him to the bank for weeks now. He won the Honda at 26/1 for us two weeks ago and last week placed solo 3rd for +625. He can not be ignored but he did miss the cut last year so I'm avoiding top 5 bets.
Jon Rahm +1200 to win (0.25U) / +300 top 5 (0.5U) : Ok I know, Rahm is a mental midget. He was leading THIS tournament the entire time last year and shot +4 on Sunday to blow the lead and T-11. Against his caddie's orders he tried to fly water form a bunker on a par-5 and never recovered. He's been playing really well and let's hope he learned from his mistakes. No value in top 10 bet so lets use him as our backup hedge.
Webb Simpson +2800 to win (0.25U) / +650 Top 5 (0.25U) / +325 Top 10 (0.5U) : Another undervalued top 10 golfer. He won this thing two years ago and was 6 shots off the lead last year for a T-16. He's ranking 7th approaching the green, 6th scoring, 2nd in scoring average, and 13th putting. Oh and 5th scrambling with 7th in greens in regulation. STUDDDDD!
Tyrell Hatton +4000 to win (0.25U) / +450 Top 10 (0.25U) : We all just saw him win in total DOG fashion. Fought off the world's best and under intense pressure. That aside, he can flat out fucking play. He currently (after not many starts but still) ranks 1st on the pga in SG: Total, Tee to Green, and Approach. WHAT ELSE DO YOU NEED? Oh yea a putter. But he putts.
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Guys that's 4.0 units. But because we've been crushing it you probably don't want to stop there and want to bet some bombers. Well, let's.
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NOTABLE MENTIONS:
Joel Dahmen Top-10 +1000 / Top-20 +350
Billy Horschel Top 5 +1400 / Top 10 +750
Matthew Fitzpatrick top 5 +1100 / top 10 +600
Morikawa win +4000 top 10 +450
Throwing quarter units in all the notable mentions as well.
Guys, this takes a lot of work win or lose. I wish you the best of luck. Please shoot me a follow on twitter if you haven't already and check in for tournament match ups.
@ PuffyShirtPicks