Not Financial Advice (NFA)
Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized
Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold.
A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels.
Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed:
First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror.
Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution
History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend.
A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants.
On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count.
On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash.
Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds.
The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey.
All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section.
Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform
DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts.
Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting.
These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:

• Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
  
  • Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]

REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC.
The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards.
Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3x compared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports.
This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it.
Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S.
I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling.
The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.

• MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
• PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
• Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books

So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding.
Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.

• The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
• There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
  
  • In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.

These guys are at the cutting edge of creating legal frameworks to successfully launch their products & now with more of their ‘competitors’ financially aligned with them, combined with financial deterioration of State budgets, we should see an overweighting of good news vs. bad on the legal front.
Final Part – Share Price Targets
Under-fucking priced at anything below $42.50
Near-term catalysts:
8/14: DKNG files 2Q’20 results, might be shitty, but you can bet that the Earnings Call is going to contain rhetoric on how massive the uptick in sports betting has been since late June/July.
Sometime from now until November: NY releases ‘study’ by Spectrum Gaming on online/mobile sports betting.
8/20 – 9/7: PGA Championship for FedEx Cup Title
9/5 – KY Derby
9/10: NFL KickOff Game
9/17: PGA U.S. Open Start Date
Month of October: NBA/NHL Playoffs
10/1: Estimated launch of online sports betting in TN
11/1: Estimated launch of online sports betting in VA
[1] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/draftkings-announces-proposed-public-offering-class-common-stock
[2] Wall St. Research – DKNG on 6/29/20
[3] https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting/revenue/
[4] https://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=16984; Note: Nevada did not break out April/May figures but from the Revenue difference of 3 month ended June 30 of 4,950 vs. month of June of 2,297 for a total difference of 2,653 spread evenly over April/May for a base case April estimate of 1,327.
[5] Wall St. Research - 7/27/20
[6] https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/category/sports/fantasy-sports/
[7] https://www.similarweb.com/website/draftkings.com/#overview
[8] https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=draft%20kings Feb 23-29, 2020 vs. Current Aug 2 – Aug 8, 2020
[9] https://www.legalsportsreport.com/42314/draftkings-illinois-sports-betting-market-access/

Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives.
PREVIOUSLY:

• Observer Rewind - 1987 by SaintRidley
  
• The Complete Wrestling Observer Rewind 1991-2001
  

1-7-2002	1-14-2002	1-21-2002	1-28-2002
2-4-2002	2-11-2002	2-18-2002	2-25-2002
3-4-2002	3-11-2002	3-18-2002	3-25-2002
4-1-2002	4-8-2002	4-15-2002	4-22-2002
4-29-2002	5-6-2002	5-13-2002	5-20-2002
5-27-2002	6-3-2002	6-10-2002	6-17-2002
6-24-2002	7-1-2002	7-8-2002	7-15-2002

• WWE hit the reset button again with a new storyline assigning general managers to each brand, and it featured the shocking debut of Eric Bischoff. The new storyline will have Bischoff as the heel GM of Raw, while Stephanie McMahon will be the babyface GM of Smackdown, while Vince McMahon will take more of a backseat role and reduce his TV presence. Of course, just 5 weeks ago, Vince panicked and blew up the existing "feuding GMs" storyline between himself and Ric Flair, so now we're re-starting it with new people I guess. It feels like a last-ditch effort to save the brand extension, which has been an utter flop since day one, with no effort to differentiate the shows and only resulting in diluting the talent and falling ratings.
  
• Bischoff and McMahon struck a secret deal about 10 days prior to his debut. Bischoff had talks with WWE last year about coming in during the original Invasion angle, except they only wanted him to do a one-off match with Vince for the PPV (which Vince would obviously have won), but Bischoff turned down that offer. But this time, they agreed to a more long-term deal. Bischoff didn't know he was going to debut on Raw until just a day or two prior, when Vince called him and told him to be there. The whole thing was kept secret and almost no one other than Vince himself knew about it. This is believed to be a unique contract, in which it's a short-term deal with the option to renew it for longer-term if the angle gets over. His only role is as a television character, it's strictly a performance contract. Bischoff is not going to be a part of management or creative.
  
• When Bischoff walked across the screen in the backstage segment, almost everyone in the company was just as shocked as the viewers at home. Bischoff's debut saw him come out and hug Vince, which Dave thinks about is the dumbest possible way to introduce him. Sure, the Invasion angle is over but WCW's corpse isn't completely cold yet. It's only been a year or so. There is probably still plenty of money to be made in Bischoff as an outsider trying to destroy Vince McMahon and the WWE. But as always, that would involve Vince allowing himself or WWE to look vulnerable against an "outsider" and his utter refusal to do that is a big part of what tanked the Invasion. But that's par for the course. Bischoff cut a promo, giving the fake "WWE version" of the Monday Night Wars history (Dave points out multiple inaccuracies that WWE still clings on today, such as claiming they stole Hulk Hogan from WWF. Of course, Hulk had been in NJPW and hadn't worked for WWF for nearly a year at the time WCW signed him. Things like that.). Dave thinks it became one of those promos full of old stuff or inside references where so much of it is about things that the average fan doesn't know or care about. Dave thinks most of this audience in 2002 isn't familiar with Alundra Blayze, they don't know Raw used to be taped instead of live, and they don't care about 83-week TV ratings streaks (Dave also notes that Bischoff said 84 on this show, which is incorrect). And once again, it became one of those promos talking about how much WWE sucks lately, which is something you don't want to keep pointing out to the fans who are still watching because you just make them feel dumb for supporting something that even the people producing it knows sucks. Shit like that is partly what drove off WCW fans. Bischoff also gloated about almost putting WWE out of business, and to the many guys in the locker room who remember that vividly, it wasn't a joke or a storyline. Those are guys who really were fighting for their job against a guy who really was trying to put them out of business. Bischoff has tremendous heat from the locker room, with a lot of people who worked for him in WCW or who resent him from the WWE side....they don't want Bischoff there.
  

WATCH: Eric Bischoff debuts in on WWE Raw - 2002

• This angle was going to take place regardless, but it's thought that the injury to Kevin Nash may have moved things up a couple of weeks because Vince once again panicked when his plans went down in flames. Nash had surgery last week. Because of the location of the tear, it's not quite as serious as the tear Triple H suffered last year. But Nash is also 10 years older. However, he has vowed to return, noting he doesn't want his career to end like that. With his age and his track record of injuries (this is his 22nd surgery, dating back to his collegiate basketball days), Dave isn't sure how much Nash will be able to offer if/when he returns next year. Also, while nobody wanted Nash to get hurt, the mood in the locker room was said to be much happier this week without him around, as the whole Nash/X-Pac/Shawn/Triple H group isn't very well liked these days (the more things change...)
  
• Speaking of X-Pac, a weird situation with him this week led to him being suspended by WWE. The day of the Raw when Nash tore his quad, X-Pac missed his flight to the show. Why? Well, he was hospitalized earlier that day in Minneapolis. Again, you ask, why? No idea. Sounds like X-Pac sure would like to know also. He called WWE saying he was in the emergency room and had no idea how he got there. He left the ER and made new travel arrangements and he got to Raw 90 minutes before the show started. And then he went out there that night and worked his match (and Dave says looked more impressive than he had in a long time). However, after the match, he still couldn't explain to WWE officials how or why he was in the hospital earlier that day and so they were naturally suspicious. As a result, X-Pac has been suspended and removed from all upcoming bookings until they get a medical report on what the deal is. Dave says X-Pac has been acting out of control for weeks now and it's been well-documented (threatening to quit if match finishes weren't changed week after week). The feeling backstage was that as long as Nash was around to go to bat for him, he was basically protected, but no longer. With Hall fired, Nash out for probably a year, X-Pac suspended, and Hogan a babyface, the feeling within the company is that the NWO angle is dead. Shawn Michaels is still expected to appear at upcoming house shows and Raws in some new role, since much of the advertising for those shows was based around him appearing, but this is probably the end of the road for the NWO. (This kinda flew under the radar, but yeah, X-Pac never wrestled another match in WWE. The match where Nash tore his quad remains to this day the last time X-Pac ever worked a match in a WWE ring. He gets released soon after this and we all know in retrospect that he was dealing with some drug issues throughout this time).
  
• Dave provides some details on Vince Russo's first (and only) creative meeting when he was briefly rehired by WWE last month. Russo apparently proposed a Raw vs. Smackdown feud that would eventually lead to reviving one of them as WCW and reigniting the WCW vs. WWE war. This time, they would have Eric Bischoff leading the WCW side, while Russo suggested Mick Foley as the leader of the WWE side. It was pretty much made clear to Russo during the meeting that if they were to do a Raw vs. Smackdown angle, it would be Stephanie in charge of the WWE side, not Foley, and sure enough, that's what is expected to happen (but without the whole WCW-revival part). Russo's idea was pretty much a combination of the 2001 Invasion angle and the 2000 WCW Bischoff/Russo angle. Dave notes that Russo wanted to essentially start from scratch again, strip everyone of their belts the way they did in 2000, and bring in Bret Hart and Goldberg to be involved as well.
  
• A big recap of UFC's debut show in England, which featured rising star Frank Mir getting beat in what should have been an upset, but word is Mir didn't take the fight seriously and barely trained. As a result, he got murked in the first round. Also, while in England, some people in Tito Ortiz's camp got into a big drunken bar brawl with fellow fighter Lee Murray. Chuck Liddell was somewhere involved too. Anyway, long story short, some people tell the story that Murray knocked Ortiz out. Ortiz denies it (to this day, this is a famous MMA story and both men tell different versions, so depending on who you believe I guess).
  
• TNA's 4th show ended with a strong angle that actually got them some national publicity. It involved Tennessee Titans players Frank Miller and Zach Piller hopping the rail and attacking Jeff Jarrett and some other wrestlers, resulting in a big brawl to end the show. So how much of it was real or shoot? Well, Russo is involved, so who knows. The official story is that Jarrett and Piller were supposed to shove each other from across the rail, but that's it. From NFL sources, Dave has actually heard the same thing. It was supposed to stop at a shoving confrontation, and then Malice would come pull Jarrett away. That was the story as Russo allegedly wrote it. But reportedly, Piller had been drinking and he ended up hopping the rail and straight up overpowered Jarrett like it was nothing and took him down. Whether this was a shoot or a work is still unknown, but it ended up getting them coverage on SportsCenter and Dave says it's possible it was a work that only a few people were in on. If it was a work, nobody else was in on it. Ron Harris, who works backstage, almost rushed to the ring to save Jarrett and Malice (who wasn't supposed to touch the football players) got involved and broke it up quickly. After the show, the players were backstage laughing and joking with Jarrett and Miller has been openly telling people it was all planned and they were told to make it look as real as possible, but it's still unknown if jumping the rail and tackling Jarrett was part of the plan or not. Several other Titans players were at ringside with them and saw it unfold, but mostly didn't get involved. So now after the publicity, TNA is trying to see if they can make a match out of this. Either way, it's starting to feel like an elaborate work that none of the rest of the roster was clued in on, which is exactly the kind of shit Russo used to do constantly in WCW that soured morale among the locker room, and for this to happen on Russo's first night in, with an angle he wrote, sure feels a little familiar.
  

WATCH: Tennessee Titans/TNA brawl

• Puerto Rico's IWA had its most successful show in company history, drawing more than 11,000 fans (without a single WWE name on the card) to see the payoff of an angle with Savio Vega fighting for control of the company. WHO SAID SAVIO AIN'T A DRAW?!
  
• On the other side of things, WWC has postponed its anniversary show from August to September in order to give themselves more time to build up big angles and storylines. Seems like something they probably should have been planning earlier? IWA has become the dominant promotion in Puerto Rico and WWC felt they didn't have the build-up necessary to do a big-money show right now. Especially after this IWA show did such big business, anything less would be an embarrassment.
  
• Bischoff's debut on Raw was a pretty big hit. How big, you ask? During Bischoff's in-ring promo after his debut, Raw added nearly 1.1 million new viewers from the previous segment. Meaning that as soon as Bischoff walked across the screen backstage, tons of wrestling fans started calling their friends telling them, "Holy shit, Eric Bischoff is on Raw, turn it on!" The bad news is that as soon as Bischoff's promo was over, a lot of them tuned right back out, leading to a huge drop-off for the rest of the show. On the flip side, this week's Smackdown, featuring the heavily-hyped return of The Rock ended up being the 7th lowest rated episode of the show in history (4th if you don't count holidays). Rock's not a draw, bet he won't even be in the business in a couple more years.
  
• Kenta Kobashi is finally back in the ring, wrestling undercard prelim tag matches for NOAH. Even though he's in tags and doing limited in-ring work, his knees are said to be already killing him and one of them totally locked up on him after one of his recent matches. But he still hasn't missed any dates.
  
• NJPW announced that Kensuke Sasaki will face Pancrase star Minoru Suzuki at the Tokyo Dome in October. This match was actually planned for the big Tokyo Dome show back in May, but negotiations fell apart because Pancrase didn't like the idea of Suzuki doing a worked pro-wrestling match. Suzuki started his career in NJPW back in 1988 and was being groomed to be a big star for the company, but he quit and joined UWF because he preferred to work shoot-style matches. In 1993, he and a few other guys all started Pancrase, which he's been doing ever since. These days, Suzuki's days of fighting for them at a top level are over and he usually only competes against nobodies or in catch wrestling (grappling and submission only, no striking). Anyway, for those curious, this didn't happen. Not sure why yet, I haven't gotten that far, but Suzuki doesn't return to NJPW until 2003.
  
• Goldberg is said to be leaning very much against going to WWE anytime soon and is instead eyeing his options of working big shows in Japan. He's contemplating an offer to make an appearance at Toryumon's show in Tokyo in September, but only an appearance. He doesn't plan to wrestle until later in the year (don't think the Toryumon appearance happens, but he does end up working a few matches in Japan here soon).
  
• Bret Hart is still hoping to make his scheduled appearance for Jacques Rougeau's upcoming indie show in Montreal. If you recall, Rougeau's big show there last year drew over 11,000 fans and he's got himself another big stadium to fill this year and Bret was expected to be the biggest draw. Whether he'll be healthy enough to make the show, following his recent stroke, remains to be seen but he's determined to try. As of this week, Hart is able to lift his left arm over his head. Just a week ago, he couldn't move it at all. His grip strength is also coming back and he's able to walk short distances. His vocal cords were also damaged but have started strengthening again and he's able to talk again (though he can't cut a wrestling promo yet, Dave says, so he might not be doing much other than coming out and waving to the crowd if he does make it). He's still having some vision problems also, but not too bad all things considered.
  
• Dave says that "no matter what you may hear," a lot of people involved in TNA behind the scenes are very unhappy about Vince Russo being brought in. He also says that a lot of people associate Russo and Ed Ferrara together, but they actually had a major falling out awhile back and hadn't been on speaking terms until now. When it became clear Russo was coming back, Ferrara reached out to Russo and the two sides made up. He goes on record saying for sure that neither Mike Tenay or Bill Behrens are happy about Russo's arrival, among others, but says everyone is being professional.
  
• Notes from TNA Weekly PPV: Crowd of about 1,500, only about half paid. Dave says it was easily the best of the 4 shows they've had so far. About 85% of it was written and booked by Jerry Jarrett and the original writing team before Russo was hired, but Russo did make some changes. Dave says some people are beginning to get tired of Don West on commentary already and he definitely brings a ton of enthusiasm (but nothing else, Dave adds) to the table. During the Ken Shamrock vs. Omori match, the crowd was distracted by one of the cage dancers near the entrance who was apparently showing her ass to the crowd. Former WCW wrestler Crowbar (real name Chris Ford) worked a tag match under the name Tempest and Dave notes that when Ford worked a try-out match for WWE awhile back, he also signed over the name Crowbar to them when he did (guessing Dave is mistaken about this. He never used the name Crowbar in TNA, but he's been using it everywhere else ever since for the last 18 years). Brian Christopher is now going by his real name, Brian Lawler, and cut a promo on Jerry Lawler about being a bad father. It got a lot of heat but now they've made fans want to see a match that they can't deliver. K-Krush faced NASCAR driver Hermie Sadler and got DQ'd. Dave says Krush was absolutely awesome here, actually carrying Sadler to a watchable match. Sadler was awful of course, but the Gayda/Stratus match from Raw was light years worse, so hey, who cares? TNA tried to bring in Hermie's more famous older brother Elliott Sadler, but that fell through because Elliott has some type of affiliation with WWE, though Dave isn't sure what (I did the research and apparently Elliott drove a Summerslam-themed car during a race around this time, so I assume that's it).
  
• More notes from TNA Weekly PPV, since this recap is huge and big, unbroken paragraphs suck: Mark and Jay Brisco worked a brief match until Malice ran in and destroyed everyone (Dave says this was a Russo addition to the show. Dave also says the Briscos will be great some day and notes that on this show, the announcers lied and said both of them are 18, when in fact, Mark Brisco is still 17 and therefore not even allowed to wrestle in many commission states). Former porn star and ECW valet Jasmine St. Claire debuted and gave Jeremy Borash a lap dance, took off her underwear, and was about to strip nude until a big angle stopped it. And yes, in case it wasn't obvious, this was another Russo addition. AJ Styles and Jerry Lynn are the tag team champions and ended up in a big brawl backstage. If you've been paying attention to the show the last 2 weeks, you would have recognized that they were doing a slow build with these two partners having friction, but Russo convinced Jarrett to hurry up and pull the trigger on the split, so here we are. Dave thinks this had no impact at all because it felt completely rushed, the story hadn't progressed far enough yet for these two to already be coming to blows. Another interview with the Dupps saying "shit" repeatedly was, yes, another Russo addition. Try not to cut yourself on all this edginess. Shamrock vs. NOAH star Takao Omori ended in a no contest because of politics. Shamrock was supposed to win clean, but then NOAH decided they didn't want Omori to do a job, so this is what we got. Dave thinks TNA should have said screw them then and just not used Omori because it's not like TNA's fanbase knows who the fuck he is anyway. Omori was said to have been spaced out all day beforehand and looked bad in the match. Crowd didn't care and they pumped in a ton of fake crowd noise for it. Jeff Jarrett ran in and took everyone out with chair shots, including "NWA rep" Harley Race, who ate a brutal unprotected chair shot to the head from Jeff and Dave thinks that's not good for anyone's brain, especially a guy pushing 60. Race was there basically to help Omori since Harley's small promotion in St. Louis has a relationship with NOAH. And finally, the 6-man X-Division #1 contenders match was excellent. Dave thinks WWE really missed the boat on Jerry Lynn and K-Krush. He admits Lynn probably couldn't have ever been a top guy in WWE or anything, but he makes everybody he wrestles look like a million bucks and guys like that are priceless to have on your roster. They also pumped a bunch of crowd noise in for this match, and at one point, the fake crowd noise loop stopped and there was a moment where it went from a loud roaring crowd to dead silence in a blink. Also, a fight in the stands distracted the crowd near the end. But great match otherwise. Show ended with the Titans players angle.
  
• In other news, The Shane Twins have been working as the masked penis wrestlers The Johnsons in TNA but the penis aspect of it has been played down to almost nothing. Upcoming plans were for the team to unmask and revert back to the Shane Twins, but when Russo came aboard, that plan got scrapped and they will remain The Johnsons for now. Because dammit, Russo will get to make penis jokes on TV or he's going to die trying.
  
• Many of the key names in TNA (Shamrock, AJ Styles, Jerry Lynn, Mike Tenay, among others) have now signed 1-year contracts. Scott Hall was rumored to have also signed a 1-year deal, but Hall is telling people it's not true and he's only committed for 4 more dates. Low-Ki is signed through the end of the year.
  
• At the recent K-1 vs. PRIDE show, there was a huge upset when PRIDE fighter Quinton Jackson knocked out Cyril Abidi, one of the top kickboxers in the world. The "plan" was for Abidi to win and then go on to a bigger money match with Don Frye, but that's what happens when you try to plan things around a shoot.
  
• And I'm sorry, I know this ain't an MMA recap, but this is too good: at the UFC press conference for the UK show this week, Dana White showed up with a bag filled with $250,000 in cash and challenged UK boxing promoter Frank Warren to put up any fighter in his stable and White would find a UFC fighter of the same weight to fight him, winner takes all the money. If you recall, Warren made some statements a few weeks back calling UFC fighters unskilled steroid freaks and claiming that his boxers could beat any of them in a real fight. So Dana showed up with a whole bag of cash, doing Dana things.
  
• Notes from Raw: Vince came out to the NWO music and said that's the last time we'll ever hear it and that the NWO is dead, so as expected, that's it for that gimmick. Tommy Dreamer is back to his old ECW gimmick and is already 1000x more over than the jobber-eating-gross-stuff gimmick WWE gave him. There was a Coach/Booker T segment backstage which is when Eric Bischoff walked through the shot, leaving everybody with their mouths hanging open, and then his promo. Another hype video for Rey Mysterio debuting on Smackdown next week. Former WCW wrestler and recent developmental guy Johnny The Bull made his Raw debut winning the hardcore title, and Dave is baffled how he got the call up because he's one of the worst guys they have in developmental and is nowhere near ready. But it's all about how he looks. Undertaker & Lesnar beat RVD & Flair in the main event and afterward, Lesnar turned on Undertaker in a good angle, though Dave doesn't have high hopes for the inevitable match.
  

WATCH: Rey Mysterio debut vignette

• Notes from Smackdown: it was a pretty bad show and for a pretty surprising reason. It was all built around Rock and he was awful. Rather than trying to sell a PPV, he came off like he was trying too hard to be a funny, "cool" guy and became a parody of himself. Dave is a huge Rock fan and thinks it was painful. He did a big in-ring promo segment with rapper Busta Rhymes that was just an elaborate plug for his new Halloween: Resurrection movie ("coming out in July?" Dave asks incredulously and, right, wtf?). Even Rock using Angle's own ankle lock against him at the end of the show looked hilariously fake and Dave has no interest in the Rock/Angle match at Vengeance after this show. Edge & Hogan defending the tag titles was a super heated match and Dave can't understand it. The live crowds are still nuclear hot for Hogan, but it's not translating at all into TV ratings or ticket sales. But man, the people who do buy tickets sure do love him. They seem to be slow-burning a Randy Orton heel turn. The Nidia segment at the buffet was great and Dave thinks they may have stumbled across a pretty great gimmick with her.

WATCH: The Rock & Busta Rhymes Smackdown segment

• The crew got a little backstage pep talk before Raw this week, mostly given by the agents (John Laurinaitis, Arn Anderson, and Fit Finlay) as well as Triple H. In particular, Triple H talked about there being too many people in the locker room who think they deserve a push ahead of the newer guys because they've been there longer. He said too many guys are sitting back waiting for someone to give them a push rather than breaking out from the pack and earning the push. He said he got over on his own when management was trying to hold him down after the MSG curtain call incident. Said too many guys are being lazy, playing cards and playing video games backstage rather than watching the matches and learning. He said just because you've had a few good matches on TV doesn't mean you know how to work or deserve a push, and also said everyone needs to work harder at house shows because attendance is down and it was guys like him who worked hard to re-build the company the last time business was down. Needless to say, for a locker room full of people who feel like they bust their asses only to get their legs cut off and hit a glass ceiling (often at the hands of the same guy giving the speech), this went over just about as well as you'd expect with the rest of the locker room. Not that anything Triple H said is wrong. Dave agrees with most of it. But considering who the messenger was, it was not well-received.
  
• Lots of backstage talk about last week's Bradshaw/Trish Stratus vs. Chris Nowinski/Jackie Gayda match, which was among the worst matches anyone has seen in years. Fit Finlay is the usual trainer and agent for the women and usually goes over their matches and spots with them, but in this case, Sgt. Slaughter put together this match. Gayda missed a few spots early in the match and seemed to panic and it all fell apart from there. Backstage, she was fully aware of how bad it was and was said to be extremely upset. There's been talk of sending her down to OVW for more training, but she'll probably still be on TV because she's fresh off winning Tough Enough.
  
• Steve Austin hasn't had any contact with anyone in WWE except for Jack Lanza, who was the agent Austin often worked with for his matches. All that's known now is Austin told Lanza he's still training hard and Lanza felt like he's getting antsy sitting at home and may be ready to return already (I think he's got bigger problems at home). But Austin and Vince still have not spoken and there's still a lot of bad feelings there.
  
• In light of recent events, Dave digs up the transcript from an old Prodigy online chat from 1996, in which Eric Bischoff was asked if he would ever work for Vince McMahon. His response: "I would rather chew off my fingers."
  
• Writer Brian Gewertz reportedly has some heat over Raw's declining ratings. The problem is, no matter who it is (Gewertz, Heyman, Russo, or even Stephanie), the final approval for everything you see on television comes down to Vince McMahon. He deserves the credit when it's good and the blame when it's bad, end of story. It's a common occurrence for Vince to rip up a script and tell the writers to come up with something new, so any bad segment that makes it to TV is on him, and resulting in lots of last minute changes. Some people are even blaming Gewertz for Kevin Nash's recent injury because Gewertz wrote the match into the script the day of the show, so Nash wasn't even aware he was going to be wrestling until a couple hours before they went on the air and I guess he didn't have time to properly stretch and get ready, and ended up tearing his quad 10 seconds in. Same thing with Cena's debut, that was a day-of decision, and luckily Cena was already on the road with the crew working dark matches, so he was available. But again, Dave says you can't blame Gewertz for either of those things because, once again, it's Vince who is constantly changing his mind and forcing last minute rewrites and whatnot every week. How is Gewertz or any other writer supposed to build long-term stories under those conditions? (Man, this sure feels familiar)
  
• Latest on DDP, he and wife Kimberly are planning on moving from Atlanta to Los Angeles to try their hand at acting careers. They've both saved a lot of money from their years in wrestling and can afford to take a chance on this kind of thing I guess. (DDP has done a handful of acting roles, mostly in the mid-00s, but obviously nothing of note. And Kimberly Page did a few movies, including a starring role with DDP in a movie called The Scam Artist that I can't find anywhere, and of course, her most famous role as "chick who's tit fell out" in The 40 Year Old Virgin).
  
• Randy Orton suffered a concussion in a house show match with Batista. Orton was trying to sell a clothesline by flying in the air and taking a big flat back bump, but hit his head on the mat coming down and was knocked unconscious. He should be back in a week or so though, because it's not like concussions are serious injuries or anything. EMT's helped him out of the ring and he walked to the back under his own power but he was knocked clean the fuck out for a bit there.
  
• This week's episode of WWE Confidential featured Big Show and Bradshaw playing a game of HORSE with the winner "getting a shot to sexually harass Linda Miles." So obviously they're out of ideas for this show. (Yeah JBL is on some full-blown Jerry Lawler shit with Miles here).
  

WATCH: JBL perving on Linda Miles for 5 minutes under the guise of playing basketball

• John Cena is still finishing up in OVW and working the upcoming big Six Flags show in Louisville. Despite being a big babyface on TV, he's still a heel in OVW and is playing a gimmick where his main roster success is going to his head.
  
• The New York Daily News ran a story on the "Sex, Lies & Headlocks" book that is coming out soon about Vince McMahon and noted several revelations in the book, such as Vince being paranoid about his office being bugged in 1993 prior to the steroid trial and how he wouldn't sit or talk near windows because he thought the FBI was listening in. It also talked about how Vince gave a job interview to Matt Lauer to host the WBF Bodystars show but didn't think Lauer had the right look, among other things. When asked for comment, WWE responded "No one in WWE has any interest in reading it. No one cares to." Dave says that's 2002 carny talk for, "Can you get us an advance copy?"
  

NEXT WEDNESDAY: Raw appears to turn a corner (lol no), WWE making major cutbacks and severing developmental ties, TNA also making major budget cuts, WWE Vengeance fallout, and more...

This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here.
NFA.
DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino
The Big Picture

• Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
  • Casinos: ~$75Bn
  • Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
  • Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
  • Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn

Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average.
Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf
Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here.
Digging Deeper
DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack.
For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range.
This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later.
Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform.
So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino.
As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform.
Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino.
Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important

• In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
  • Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
    • Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
  • Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
  • As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
• They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
  • I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
    • Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently

Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis

• DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
  • CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
  • Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
    • FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
    • On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
• Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
  • Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
    • A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability

Things to look for when going Long
- Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized
- Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability
- Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)

• Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
• As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]

Share Price Target
Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).

• MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
• ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
• Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
  • Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales

Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73
Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10
Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47
These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base.
At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs.
Share Price drivers / considerations:
- Continued multiple expansion

• Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?

- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets

• Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year

Management Team
Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards.
His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around.
Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys.
Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward.
TL;DR:
If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.
​
[1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19
[2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302
[3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d
[4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20
[5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php
[6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044

Depression is a real mother fucker. I had a few really awesome months going since March, and the dogs and work I do with them in my life keep me feeling like a person, but my demon is no God damn joke. my demon is so expensive it buys bottle service for cocaine. I am talking about gambling, or sports in my case.
A quick PSA that I have pertains to casinos opening again and also for myself, sports betting is finally legal in person in Detroit. Isolation made it easy to not think about betting sports. I honestly thought I was over it because it was just so easy. No sports? Nothing to bet online for me... I'm not an idiot who would play online casino (that's sarcasm - the sports book has a better house take than at blackjack). Well, it only took a mention of a new sports book and this and that when simply listening to the radio going to work with the dogs... Hadn't thought about sports in months. I took in a homeless vet and her dog for two months. I saved up 30k. I took in a 4th rescue dog. I got a new van. I got all new camping gear for the year.. I mean literally, having that feeling where life is exciting again.....
And then what the royal fuck? I am suddenly driving 38 miles downtown to a casino I've never been to. I haven't gone to a casino in ten years. I'm all online. But here I am with 15k cash going down to bet... I get down, they make me register because of any bet over 2k, and they assign me the number "007", like they don't know what they are doing. But it's really my customer number... So I bet $4k on Braves ML and then they have these machines so I put $100 ok Vegas NHL. I go home, start making a fire doing some stuff outside, I'm saying I'm not going to check the score... Well I start into a beer and then I suddenly here the game is postponed... Ugh... Vegas was a winner, so my $100 bet just won $120! What a start lol. So I call the sports book manager as I had his cell and I asked to roll the $4k bet to the Boston Red Sox as dogs at home on Friday (fyi they won 5-3).. Well, he informs me because of compliance that I have to come down... I say I can't as I'm an hr away.
So, I won $120..good enough... You would think. But, with the millions I have bet over the last decade online, there was a rush going into the casino. I can't lie. Of course, you know what happens next, right? I got in my car and I drove down there as I was only half-way between the nightly card of games.. I get down there. Cash my winner and then I add and I put it on the Raptors -1... LoL. Well, some of you know the feeling of a $4500 bet that is over 2 minutes into a sporting event. It's a rare and amazing when you're on the correct side, but from the tip off I absolutely knew I shit my pants.
I left in the first quarter and went home. I had those thoughts of death that I hadn't had in months. Not that I want to kill myself, but that I just want the feelings of worthlessness to stop.
Unfortunately, the next day did not get better as I did the incorrect thing and did not take a few days off (or quit then). I had someone cover my work shift and I went downtown this time and placed a $8k bet on the Jazz ML at +114.
I think at this point I had hit at least 10 in a row (losses that is LOL). That's how it has always been for 20 years and I think it's why I am so sick. I've had sick runs of discipline where I have run 5k to 100k+ betting 2-5 percent of my roll, I a month... So many times. Countless times making 10x my starting bankroll really quickly mmm. And then, it's always the case where it's a small bad loss or something so dumb, and it will be a cascade of night-night money. It's a sickness for sure.
I don't even really know the point of my post and it's long and probably poorly worded with lots of errors. I am not going to proof read anything I post. Maybe if I have a point it will come out below. I don't think anyone knows me here but I am a very serious compulsive gambler. I think I might be protecting my ego by giving this low number, but I would say I have racked up between 150-200k in losses net over the last 20 years, but the majority coming within the last 4 or so... As gambling escalates. If I am honest with myself, if that's the number I think, it's probabaly like $300,00. It's a blessing that I never have made a lot of money - - like literally never more than $25k a year. But an initial bank roll of 5 figures and getting it up there, I was rolling over about a million a month in sports bets.
Losing money sucks, but it is the one thing that you can repair from gambling. What can't be fixed is your brain. You will never, ever look at life the same once you have placed a large bet or lost control. You will never find joy in the same things in life. I can hardly remember the names of some of my college friends I partied with, but I remember a Stanford missed 20 yrd field goal in the first half of some meaningless game to cover my spread (Stanford crushed the game spread by double digits, but failed to cover first half of course). Do you not see the problem? Why the fuck do I or would I want to remember that? Gambling is worse than drugs in many ways. Currently, I am slowly, painfully, and expensively being killed by gambling. If I was a junkie, someone, literally anyone would see my pain and help me, but as a gambler, this pain is internal and so terrifying that we do almost everything to hide it. And then we spend our days going to work, thinking about how we can die, saving up money... Only to feel okay again months later and to relapse.
I hope I can help someone young getting into gambling to understand that the danger is not money really... But it is the damage to your brain. You will hate yourself, you will hate life, etc...there are lots of better reads on the science of gambling and what it does to your brain chemistry. It simply is not publicized more because gambling is a huge business and for some cities (like Detroit), it's how they continue to tax the poor and keep the city going. Americans are also poorly educated on odds, math, and reality. And even when we understand odds, we are often brainwashed by capitalism to think we can be one of those antedotacle stories where we strike it rich. It is all just another way to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich. People with money DO NOT Gamble. If they do, they lose. If Charles Barkley and John Daly and Michael Jordan can't make money betting sports, then how the fuck do us average Joe's come up with the belief that we can make money? I've got a lot of stories, so we can always shoot the shit of how it can get worse.
If you're young and you like sports and gambling, you should stay straight as an arrow and you should get into the casino and bookmaking industry. Make some money yourself and maybe you can establish yourself enough that you can also help out those customers that truly need it.
As much as I want the stacks of 100s I blew the last 48hrs back, I would gladly sacrifice the money to bypass the months of hell I'm going to have to go through again as I try once again to kill this demon.
.

My title of my post is the statement I stuck too from the very moment this selloff started. I've stayed consistent with this belief the entire time, whether we go up or down. If you just wanted any more proof, take a look at the Twitter link, as an additional piece of evidence. It's the same case in the recent up moves (the futures are contributing to the majority of the recent up move).
https://mobile.twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1248368169091239937
Retail, institutional investors, pension funds, etc. - they don't trade overnight futures. However you know who does? Stat arb algos as well as option trading firms/hedge funds/prop trading firms/bank risk-mitigation algos. For example if a hedge fund was put into a dicey risk situation, they turn on these algos to offload risk overnight. If they can't sell credit risk, they have to do it elsewhere like in ES futures. If an option market maker is short gamma and realizes oh crap, this is gonna cause me to be super long tomorrow with this move in ES, I've gotta hedge and turn on my overnight algo to sell first so I get less long deltas overnight.
So when you guys want to ask "who in the world is even selling" as we sold off and now "who in the world is even buying" as we go up, it's the algos. You are right, not many actual people are buying these days. It's the algos, and when I say algos, I mean the risk/liquidity algos.
Do you want to know why the algos are buying now? It's simple. Jerome Powell said he's buying credit ETFs. If you are a market maker, you have to sell these ETFs to them. Now you have to find a beta hedge. What's the best way to find that beta hedge? Buy ES futures. This then causes SPY to open higher. Now, if your algo was fast enough, you could have front ran the FED by buying HYG and JNK (this is why their NAV is trading at a massive premium), but if you weren't, well you get desperate as you get picked off from being short credit, so now you have to buy ES, SPY, and anything else you can. You might have to then buy SPX/SPY puts with it since you then have to protect your now new ES/SPY longs (which you didn't actually want to buy but were "forced" to buy),, which is why VIX hasn't dropped that much relative to how much SPY has gone up. It's all an algorithmically driven market.
This is why the entire market, on BOTH the down move and the now up move, has decoupled from the economy. So no, you guys may think people are FOMOing in. That's not true. Most investors aren't FOMOing in right now. The algos have just gone out of control on both the down and up moves and it's all technical.
Correlation (with other assets like credit and bonds), positioning (short squeeze and forced liquidations), option gamma (short gamma makes moves bigger), and short term stat arb strategies dominate the market short term. Retail and even big firms like Blackrock or Berkshire do not. Fundamentals win out long term. It may be months for SPY, and it is years for individual companies. No short term movement is ever controlled for by actual people wanting to put on a position.
As I said a month ago when we were selling off, if Citadel and Renaissance Technologies wanted to hold up the entire market for a day, they easily could. They may not want to if it's not in their favor, but they easily could. Two firms. That's enough. That about sums up this market. (EDIT: this part may have been extremely confusing due to my bad wording, but if you read some of the posts below with like me, MasterCookSwag, and ArseneWankerer, I try to clear up my meaning)
Another interesting and true fact? If options trading was ELIMINATED, the market would NEVER have sold off to 220 and it would have never skyrocketed back to almost 280 now. You may ask it's the same fundamentals right? Yes it is, the fundamentals of the economy and virus are the same, but elimiate options, and actually the entire market changes.
Finally, to add one more thing, if this wasn't clear, there needs to be a catalyst for the first wave of selling and buying, but everything after that is purely technical. For example, the catalysts would have been the virus and the oil shock in the wave of selling. The catalyst would have been the Fed in the wave of buying. However, the catalyst in itself shouldn't have produced a very large move. For example, imagine we go from 290 -> 270 as an example. The catalyst, if only traded by itself, should have moved it from 290 -> 285. However, the algos, with all the technical details I described above, then moves it from 285 -> 270. This is what I call "forced selling" or "fake selling," and I've alluded to this in my other posts. There is also "fake buying" in the reverse. However, "fake selling" is usually more powerful because on average people leverage up to be more bullish than bearish in an average market environment. So yes, the initial catalyst is important, but it's not the reason for the majority of short term moves.
I worked in the industry so I know this. You can call it a dirty secret, but hopefully if you see some actual statistics (see the above link on Twitter), you'll understand too. Fundamentals eventually will win longer term, but you know that saying about how the market can stay irrational before you stay solvent, well that's literally true because the market is algo driven. And as we progress into a state of better technology and even more options volume (think about how many people just recently started trading options) and other assets, this will be more and more true. One of these days, which could be like in 20+ years, if some black swan catalyst happens in conjunction with all of these technical factors I mentioned, you literally can see a 20% triple circuit breaker day immediately and like 90%+ of that drop would be all technical.
I'll try to answer any questions to the best of my ability.
EDIT: So for the people who are pointing out I don't understand what a MM is, let's do a easier example with NFL betting lines. Vegas acts like a MM in this regard. When an NFL line closes, is it 50/50 on both sides of the line? Nope. Vegas is still subject to risk. That's why sometimes they win or lose a lot of money depending on the outcome of an event, even though they are a "MM" too. Yes, Vegas will adjust a line based on some order flow, but it has their OWN MODELS TOO to determine what is fair, so they will adjust accordingly to the toxicity of the order flow. They will not just completely change their line so much so simply based pure order flow to keep on capturing 50/50. If you really think an options MM for example goes home every night flat every Greek, you are kidding yourself.
The point I was making above is a firm such as Citadel does so much volume that they have a huge impact on the market, whereas if you take them out of the market for say a month, the entire market microstructure changes in options and equities. Notice in my original post, I clearly said that these firms may not actually want to do this in their favor, but I am using them as an example saying they do so much volume they can IF they wanted to (in options you are more likely to do so than equities). I was emphasizing this point to show you guys how algos play such a large role in the market. It's similar to Vegas when they act as a MM to betting lines. They control the betting line at the end of the day. They aren't always 50/50 on both sides with no risk. Of course, Citadel and SIG in options will adjust their vol curves based on some order flow, but at the end of the day, they control most of the options vol pricing, which indirectly also affects equities in a big way when we have massive short gamma moves.
Similarily, apply it to sports betting. Let's say we shut down Vegas for a month and let only DraftKings price all the betting lines. I bet you the lines would be different and the volume would be different. Would they be completely different (like a -3 to a +3 line)? No, it wouldn't be that extreme, but it would be different and volume would be different and reaction to order flow would be different. Just think about it like this and apply it to trading.
EDIT2: this was also my post like ~3 weeks ago when we were like ~230. Too bad investing deleted my context of my post (since it relates to a lot of what I said below), but you can still see my title and my comments, so you know what I was calling. Yea sure, you can say I got lucky, but I wasn't wrong.
https://www.reddit.com/investing/comments/fjtkzh/we_are_very_close_to_the_bottom/
Addressing the above link, it's the type of logic that I am using in my below posts to probabilistically call bottoms like this. I'm never 100% sure (it's impossible to even be like 70%+ sure imo), but if you put some of this together (like when does the forced selling for the risk/liquidty algos stop?), you can actually call bottoms a bit easier than just winging it 50/50. Notice that this also coincided with March options expirations, as I mention, options are a big part. It also conincided with Jay Powell saying he's going to "alleviate the risks" (this is the forced selling from algos risk) he sees in the repo and now credit market.
EDIT3: u/brokegambler posted this, if you want a real professional talking about it https://www.realvision.com/market-makers-and-coronavirus-the-mechanics-of-a-market-sell-off?utm_source=contributor&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=43900_HK_GH_CONT_W1_LINK
EDIT4: ok last edit but https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pinningthestrike.asp is just a quick example of one phenomenon that happens due to options and market makers. There's not going to be many articles you can find online on about what I'm talking about, but this pinning the strike phenomenon is a well-observed effect that's actually writen about of what market makers can do in terms of controlling price action due to their risk. Interestingly, what we have in our case the last month is the opposite of this in which rather than strikes getting pinned, strikes get blown through to cause the huge moves (since we've been in short gamma the last month). The article isn't super detailed, but can give you a general idea of one effect.
EDIT5: sorry I'll add one last edit...I do realize maybe my wording was not the greatest in my post, and after reading it again, it does sound a bit "forceful" at times, so I apologize for that. This was meant to be more informative, but please don't take it as I am trying to force any one opinion on anyone. Apologize for that!

To answer this question, assume the following:

• You have the results from every sporting event on the planet upon which you can place bets with professional sports books (casinos, race tracks, online, etc).
• Assume this book of results can never be lost/stolen/damaged or accessed by anyone other than yourself (e.g. you have multiple copies in multiple secure locations).
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• You will have to deal with max betting and max payoff rules (e.g. Vegas casinos won't accept massive bets that have the potential of causing true financial problems for themselves).
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• You will start with $100.

Ready, set, go!

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Thanks to everyone who filled out the survey! I was hoping to get some insight into what's bringing people here and how we can improve, and I think we mostly met that goal! You can go on a deep dive into the results below.
In general, people come here because of the sense of community and how nice everyone is. Ways we can improve: more engagement with each other and with the band (I lost count of how many people asked for Rian's AMA lol). The mods will work on what we want to do with some of these ideas and go from there.
81 people filled out the survey. Last year, we had 65 responses. I linked the results to the last survey, but I have not yet gone through to see what's similar and what's different.
Disclaimer #1: Some comments were lightly edited for clarify or spelling.
Disclaimer #2: Next time I think I want to do a survey, someone please remind me how much freaking work it is to put all the data together.
Disclaimer #3: My comments are in bold, as are the top selections for each category. I was a little sassy.
Reminder: There are controversial opinions about the band and normal song opinions. You're welcome to respond to anything but remember to be nice and respectful. Everyone is entitled to their opinions and mostly everyone is here because of how welcoming the community is.

Demographics

Gender

• Male: 27 people / 33%
• Female: 4 people / 58%
• Non-Binary: 7 people / 9%

Location

• US: 47 people / 58%
• Europe: 2 people / 3%
• UK: 12 people / 15%
• Asia: 5 people / 6%
• South America: 2 people / 3%
• Australia: 5 people / 6%
• Canada: 5 people / 6%
• Northern Ireland: 2 people / 3%(1 person was born in Ireland and now resides in Northern Ireland)
• New Zealand: 1 person / 1%

State (if in US)

• Alabama: 2 people
• Alaska
• Arizona
• Arkansas
• California: 4 people
• Colorado: 1 person
• Connecticut: 1 person
• Delaware
• Florida: 1 person
• Georgia
• Hawaii
• Idaho
• Illinois 1 person
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Kentucky: 1 person
• Louisiana
• Maine
• Maryland: 2 people
• Massachusetts: 2 people
• Michigan
• Minnesota: 1 person
• Mississippi
• Missouri
• Montana
• Nebraska: 1 person
• Nevada
• New Hampshire: 3 people
• New Jersey
• New Mexico
• New York: 5 people
• North Carolina: 3 people
• North Dakota
• Ohio: 6 people
• Oklahoma
• Oregon: 1 person
• Pennsylvania: 4 people
• Rhode Island
• South Carolina: 1 person
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Texas: 3 people
• Utah
• Vermont
• Virginia: 1 person
• Washington
• West Virginia: 1 person
• Wisconsin: 1 person
• Wyoming

Age

• Under 15: 9 people / 11%
• 16-18: 13 people / 16
• 19-24: 30 people / 37%
• 25-29: 19 people / 34%
• 30-34: 9 people / 11% the best age group, am I right?
• 35+: 1 person / 1%

All-Time Stats

How Long Have You Been Listening to ATL?

• Less than a year: 11 people / 14%
• 1-2 years: 6 people / 7%
• 3-5 years: 19 people / 24%
• 6-10 years: 16 people / 20%
• 10+ years: 29 people / 36%

First Album/EP You Listened To?

• The Party Scene: 3 people / 4%
• Put Up or Shut Up: 9 people / 11%
• So Wrong, It's Right: 19 people / 24%
• Nothing Personal: 27 people / 33%
• Dirty Work: 4 people / 5%
• Don't Panic: 6 people / 7%
• Future Hearts: 9 people / 9%
• Last Young Renegade: 3 people / 4%
• Wake Up, Sunshine: 1 person / 1%

Where Does ATL Fit Into Your Favorite Bands?

• They are my favorite: 38 people / 48%
• Tied for favorite: 18 people / 23%
• Top 3: 10 people / 13% is it weird that I mod this sub and my answer is down here?
• Top 5: 6 people / 8%
• Top 10: 7 people / 9%
• Not a favorite but still like them: 1 person / 1%

How Many Times Have You Seen ATL Live?

• 0 :(: 33 people/ 41% This is sad and we must fix it
• 1: 8 people / 10%
• 2: 8 people / 10%
• 3: 6 people / 9%
• 4-5: 7 people / 9%
• 6-10: 11 people / 14%
• 10+: 8 people / 10%

Do you watch/listen to Crash Test Live/Full Frontal?

• Yes: 22 people / 27%
• No: 32 people / 40%
• Sometimes: 23 people / 29%
• Other:
  • Used to watch FF, but don't watch CTL (2 people)
  • Planning to
  • I was a guest on Crash Test Live

Opinions

Favorite Album/EP?

• The Party Scene: 1 / 1%
• Put Up or Shut Up: 1 / 1%
• So Wrong, It's Right: 11 / 14%
• Nothing Personal: 15 / 19%
• Dirty Work: 2 / 3%
• Don't Panic: 12 / 15%
• Future Hearts: 11 / 14%
• Last Young Renegade: 7 / 9%
• Wake Up, Sunshine: 20 / 25% this makes my heart so happy, even though I think WUS stole most of the Don't Panic votes.

Least Favorite Album/EP

• The Party Scene 25 / 33%
• Put Up or Shut Up 9 / 12%
• So Wrong, It's Right 7 / 9%
• Nothing Personal 0 / 0%
• Dirty Work 9 / 12%
• Don't Panic 2 / 3%
• Future Hearts 7 / 9%
• Last Young Renegade 16 / 21%
• Wake Up, Sunshine 0 / 0% I would like to point out that last year, a handful of people voted "the new album we haven't heard yet" as their least favorite album. I hope you are feeling shame now.

​
Favorite Song

• A Love Like War
• Afterglow
• Backseat Serenade (2)
• Bottle and a Beat
• break your little heart
• Canals
• Cinderblock Garden (5) this is really too varied to be significant but Cinderblock Garden is kinda the winner
• Chemistry
• Clumsy
• Coffee shop soundtrack
• Dark Side of Your Room
• Drugs & Candy
• For Baltimore (3)
• Getaway Green
• Glitter & Crimson (5)
• Hello, Brooklyn (2)
• Heroes (2)
• Irony of Choking on a Lifesaver
• Jasey Rae (4)
• Last Young Renegade
• Let It Roll
• Lost in Stereo
• Lullabies
• Melancholy Kaleidoscope (2)
• Missing You
• Monsters (ft. Blackbear) (3)
• Noel
• Oh, Calamity!
• Old Scars / Future Hearts (4)
• Paint You Wings (2)
• Poppin' Champagne
• Pretty Venom
• Return The Favor
• Runaways
• Safe (2)
• Six Feet Under the Stars (3)
• Something's Gotta Give
• Somewhere in Neverland
• Stay Awake
• The Reckless and the Brave
• The Girls a Straight Up Hustler (2)
• Therapy (2)
• To Live and Let Go
• Toxic Valentine
• Trouble Is (2)
• Under a Paper Moon (2)
• Vegas
• Wake Up Sunshine
• Walls
• Weightless (4)

Least Favorite Song

• A Love Like War
• Bad Enough For You
• Bail Me Out
• Birthday
• Cinderblock Garden (2)
• Coffee Shop Soundtrack
• Come One, Come All (2)
• Damned If I Do Ya (10 Year Tribute Version)
• Dirty Laundry
• Drugs and Candy (2)
• Good Times (2)
• Ground Control (3)
• I Feel Like Dancin' (4)
• Idk something from PUOSU
• Lullabies
• Monsters
• Most of the party scene and put up or shut up (sorry)
• My Only One (2)
• No Idea (3)
• Poison
• Remembering Sunday
• Runaways
• Satellite (2)
• Something from LYR
• So Long Soldier
• Somethings Gotta Give
• Stick, Stones, and Techno (5)
• That Girl (3)
• The Irony of Choking on a Lifesaver
• Therapy
• Too Much (10) RIP sweet summer child
• Toxic Valentine (2)

Favorite Opener - this band has some great openers. I went with Reckless but it was hard to choose!

• The Party Scene 0 / 0%
• Coffee Shop Soundtrack 8 / 10%
• This Is How We Do 0 / 0 % isn't someone here obsessed with this song? where were you on this one?
• Weightless 25 / 31%
• Do You Want Me (Dead?) 11 / 14%
• The Reckless And The Brave 12 / 15%
• Satelite 2 / 3%
• Last Young Renegade 10 / 13%
• Some Kind of Disaster 12 / 15%

Favorite Closer

• Sticks, Stones, and Techno 2 / 3%
• Lullabies 2 / 3%
• Poppin Champagne 7 / 9%
• Therapy 5 / 6%
• Heroes 10 / 13%
• So Long and Thanks For All The Booze 2 / 3%
• Old Scars/Future Hearts 28 / 35% yes, correct.
• Afterglow 11 / 14%
• Basement Noise 13 /16%

Favorite Part of ATL

• Lyrics 5 6%
• Music 16 / 20%
• Live Show 5 / 6%
• Everything 53 / 65%
• Other
  • lyrics and music and how well they fit together and create the perfect mood foreach song
  • Depends on the song, I like some for the lyrics and some for the sound more

Least Favorite Part of ATL - this is why we're all reading this post, right?

• Dick jokes and general immaturity. I get it's how they are, but I don't find it super entertaining.
• Dick jokes between songs live, but only because I like to watch the shows out loud at home with my parents nearby 😅
• Does the bougie farm count? In my esteemed opinion: yes, yes it does
• Don’t tour in my country.
• How they toy with my heart
• I hate how messed up the m&g system used to be. I was in the hustler club for a year in 2013-2014 and found it impossible to get m&g and have heard from friends that it’s only gotten worse
• I worry they're still friends with men in bands that have been accused of sexual misconduct They need a stronger stance on this issue for sure!
• It's not about them, bit sometimes Stan twitter can get really intense about topics So intense.
• Jack acting like a 12 yr old
• Jack's attitude is pretty annoying Quarantine Jack is giving me life, though! He seems like he's doing great!
• Jack's jokes
• Sophomoric humor
• Standing on shoulders for SGG lmao
• That I haven't seen them live
• That we aren’t neighbors I personally would not want to live near that much manure. Maybe the other guys aren't so bad.
• The bra-throwing, especially in their earlier days. It's super uncomfortable knowing that heaps of those bras come from underaged girls and whatnot. But I'm glad to see that the boys have matured heaps since they started out!
• The dick jokes can get kinda old at times now
• The fact that I'm 15 and they're o l d I take offense to this o l d comment
• The fact that they always seem to skip over Ireland when they go on tour...
• The fact that they never come here!
• the farm
• the ugly merch and the ignoring of The Party Scene and ttwtridwte ep Stop putting your faces on all your merch, guys.
• The younger fandom
• They've stopped touring certain cities
• Too Much lmao this is so specific and I love it
• When I’m not at a concert
• the immature Blink a la 1998 thing they still sometimes do
• They don't come to Canada enough!
• Throwing bras on stage
• Most of the merch isn’t very good tbh NO. MORE. FACES. ON. SHIRTS.
• Bonus tracks that don't get released where I am :(
• Jack’s 13-year-old jokes. Get some new material please.
• "Stan" culture in general.

Favorite B-Side

• A Love Like War (2)
• Actors
• Bad Enough For You
• Basement Noise
• Bottle and a Beat (15) We're on the right side of history here
• Canals
• Caroline (6)
• Chemistry (2)
• Future Hearts B-Sides (2)
• Get Down on Your Knees and Tell Me You Love Me
• How The Story Ends (5)
• I Hate That For You
• Painting Flowers (2)
• Poison (4)
• Take Cover (5)
• Toxic Valentine
• Vampire Shift (6)
• Your Bed (3)

Favorite Song to Hear Live

• Afterglow (3)
• Backseat Serenade (2)
• Cinderblock Garden (2)
• Coffee Shop
• Damned If I Do Ya (Damned If I Don’t) (2)
• Dancing with a Wolf
• Dark Side of Your Room (2)
• Dear Maria (4)
• Do You Want Me (Dead)?
• Everything is Fine
• Guts
• Heroes (2)
• Jasey Rae (4)
• Kids in the Dark
• Lost In Stereo (4)
• Outlines
• Remembering Sunday
• Runaways
• Six Feet Under The Stars
• Some Kind of Disaster
• Something's Gotta Give
• Somewhere in Neverland (4)
• Therapy (2)
• Vegas (5)
• Weightless (6) but like the old way, right?

Least Favorite Song to Hear Live

• A Love Like War
• Afterglow
• Backseat Serenade
• Birthday
• Canals
• Dark Side of Your Room (2)
• Dear Maria (4)
• Dirty Laundry (3)
• Drugs and Candy
• Good Times (2)
• Lost in Stereo
• Missing You (2)
• Remembering Sunday
• Something's Gotta Give (5) this is on brand for this sub
• Therapy (2)
• Time Bomb (2)
• Too Much (6)

Dream song to hear live that they WILL NOT PLAY?

• ...I Feel Like Dancin’
• A Daydream Away (5) - seriously!
• Actors
• All of the future hearts b-sides
• Bottle and a Beat (4) yes
• Circles (3)
• Coffee Shop Soundtrack
• Fool’s Holiday
• Get Down on Your Knees and Tell Me You Love Me
• Ground control
• Guts
• Holly
• Hometown Heroes
• Is it too early to say Pretty Venom? (2)
• Lullabies (2)
• Nightmares (2)
• Oh, Calamity
• Outlines
• Paint You Wing (6) please bring her justice by letting her win DP survivor
• Return the Favor (2)
• Running from Lions
• Safe (I think most of my favs they have actually played live at some point. Haven't heard Safe yet, would love that!) IF THEY DON'T PLAY SAFE I WILL RIOT
• Six feet under the stars
• STICKS STONES AND TECHNO (2)
• Take Cover
• Time Bomb
• The Girl’s a Straight Up Hustler (3)
• Therapy
• To Live and Let Go
• Too Much (I know they used to play it but I doubt they will again)
• Toxic Valentine (3)
• Umbrella
• Under A Paper Moon (3)
• Vampire Shift
• Walls (3)
• No idea, I guess Konstantine by Something Corporate ohhhhhh-kayyyyy

Do you have a favorite member?

• Jack 11 / 14%
• Zack 7 / 9%
• Alex 20 / 26%
• Rian 14 / 18% kind of a disappointing showing for this sub lol
• Love 'Em All Equally 25 / 32%
• I hate them all, why am I here 1 / 1%

Wow us with your controversial opinions/hot takes: or is it THIS section we're all here for?

• ATL should post more on their tiktok. Jack is really good at TikTok
• Dirty Work isn’t that bad. It's quite good, with a few exceptions
• Favorite Place is easily the best song on WUS.
• Getaway Green sucks, SGG doesn't :D
• I actually enjoy Bail Me Out lol
• I actually like SGG Sometimes I forgot that I actually do like SGG and BS because I lean so hard into the jokes here lol
• I can’t stand the new version of Lost In Stereo, the screamed part is just so irritating to me and I skip it every time (I love the original version though)
• Dirty Work isn’t their best album, but it’s also not nearly as bad as a lot of people make it out to be, it’s a really fun and catchy album even though the lyrics are kind of dated and cringy sometimes
• Pretty Venom is extremely underrated
• I do not like So Wrong It's Right at all
• I do not think Monsters is the best song from WUS and I believe it is not as good as some fans make it out to be
• I don’t like Don’t Panic a lot (it’s not bad but it’s not even close to my favorite), and I really like Last Young Renegade (it’s my second favorite). I also don’t like Clumsy that much (again it’s not bad but it’s not one of my favorites at all) your opinions make me sad but that's okay
• I don’t mind the fan club name change hustlers was weird. i said it.
• I feel like dancing is a great song and people just hate on it cause its fun and doesnt have a deeper meaning
• I hate the farm I don't think this was me.
• I hate Weightless, I don't like the singles from Don't Panic that much and Dirty Work has the best deepcuts.
• I love Backseat and SGG and love when they play them live SUCK IT lmaooooooo are you Alex?
• i really like the song bail me out
• Jack is a man child who needs AA wellllll let's not speculate on someone's mental health okay?
• Jack is easily the worst member of ATL
• Last Young Renegade is great and if you don’t like the album now you’ll go back to it in a few years and love it.
• Most of the acoustic tracks on albums aren't good
• OS/FH and Hello, Brooklyn are not good songs.
• People are way too critical of Alex online. Every other day, people are coming after him for something when he’s only one person. Dude has a million followers and puts his foot in his mouth sometimes. At least he usually owns up to it.
• Put Up or Shit Up is way better than So Wrong It’s Right
• red streak jack was better than current blonde jack, change my mind
• Something's Gotta Give gets WAY too much slander SGG gets way too much shoulder. SEE WHAT I DID THERE?
• Sticks, Stones, and Techno doesn't deserve the hate it gets
• Super underrated (not really controversial)
• the alcohol jokes were funny the first fifty times but i’m honestly tired of them and the constant promotion of their millions of wines etc. i’m not saying i hate drinking or something,,, i just wanna hear some new banter rather than the same three jokes repeated with a wine promo somewhere in the middle.
• The fanbase hasn't something against Too Much, but it's one of my favourite songs. Nothing Personal
• The farm is awful. I don’t like most of SWIR or LYR I don't think this was me. I like most of LYR and SWIR.
• They don't have a single 'bad' song
• Three Words/The Party Scene deserve to be recognized by the band while talking about their discography. Also, Dear Maria is and will always be a bop.
• "Tidal Waves is a super weak song. obligatory Mark Hoppus features don't need anything besides The Hoppus lol
• Dirty Work is a super solid album, though I admit a few songs are hit or miss.
• That Girl is a banger of just a funny/ridiculous song.
• Everything is Fine / Birthday are great, fun songs.
• So Wrong It's Right is overrated, largely due to nostalgia, with only a few shining songs on the album.
• Pretty Venom is underrated and is one of the best songs on WUS, better than Clumsy, Safe, and the Seasons at least. It's got a vibe to it that you'd listen to it with big headphones at midnight, while lying on your bed in the dark and staring up at the ceiling.
• Too Much and Walls are the best songs on Nothing Personal, Weightless and Damned are highly overrated, Last Young Renegade was a mistake, Glitter & Crimson tries too hard, The Irony of Choking on a Lifesaver is bad These takes are super toasty, but I'm with you on G & C
• Too Much is a good song, Nightmares is a bad song
• Too much is a much better song than people think it's just too much for me
• Wouldn't mind hearing more of Alex rapping! i believe your wish has come true
• Alex gets a pass for a lot of things because he's the singesongwriter and people want to like him, but he oozes privilege a lot of the time and is sometimes kind of tone deaf (not musically of course) oh yes this one was me I remember it now
• Basement noise is a good song
• LYR is a top tier album no matter what anyone says. Also hope they release the B-Sides on Spotify soon
• Dirty Work has more bops than flops
• People need to stop pretending Dirty Work is good! The joke has gone on long enough!
• I don't understand why Dear Maria has so many plays, it's not even the best song on that album
• Jack has had the best glow up of everyone in the band.
• They need to start referencing New Found Glory in their lyrics again. have you not heard Summer Daze?

Sub Feedback

How long have you been subscribed to alltimelow?

• Less than 6 months: 37 / 48% Welcome!
• 6 months - 1 year: 21 / 27%
• 1-2 years: 15 / 20%
• 3-4 years: 4 / 5%
• 5+ years 0

How often do you come here?

• More than once per day: 31 / 39% *refresh\*
• Once per day: 16 / 20%
• Every couple days/a few times per week: 27 / 34%
• Once per week: 3 / 4%
• Less than once a week but more than once a month: 1 / 1%
• Once a month: 1 / 1%
• Less than once per month 1/ 1%

What other subs do you frequent? I took out all the because that seemed super spammy

• /poppunkers /themaine /postmalone /amitheasshole
• gymnastics, sffpc, humansbeingbros
• A few other band, body mods and animal subreddits!
• AITA, Day6
• Animal crossing, RWBY
• Anime, aitb
• Baby subreddits 😂 new mom probs
• Btd6, Brawl Stars
• Cat-related ones
• DnDnD, Hadestown, The Bachelor
• Falloutboy, Paramore
• Green Day, blink-182, baseball, paramore, smashbrosultimate
• Jacksepticeye and CallmeKevin
• Memes, ATLA, Kingkiller Chronicles
• memes, water parks, danganronpa,
• Mostly subs for other bands (The Killers, MCR, and Waterparks mostly) and meme subs
• My local subreddit, hiking, camping, coffee
• my other favourite bands's subreddits (tame impala, dance gavin dance, the 1975, the strokes, fall out boy, panic! at the disco, etc.)
• One Piece, Fruits Basket
• Ones for sports, podcasts, and games
• Other music subs like Green Day, the 1975, and fall out boy
• Poppunkers, NRL, aita
• poppunkers, posthardcore, metalcore
• Popunkers
• askreddit teenagers twentyonepilots twennywunpilots waterparks and panicatthedisco
• chvrches, the1975, twentyonepilots
• Greenday, Blink-182, FalloutBoy, Panicatthedisco, twentyonepilots, mychemicalromance/gymnastics
• Kanye, baseball
• ludwigahgren aww mychemicalromance me_irl
• Panic at the disco, Fall out boy, Bring me the horizon, Starset, Set it off, Idkhow
• poppunkers, cursed comments, rare insults
• shield, asexual, prequelmemes, vegan
• ShitpostCrusaders
• twentyonepilots captainsparrowmemes TwennyWunPilots dogelore
• waterparks; guitar; setitoff; whitepeopletwitter
• Rpdr, animal crossing, brooklyn 99
• Taylor Swift, animal crossing, avatar, animals being bros, rare puppers
• Starbucks (I work there), wholesome, blackmagic, sims4, and pretty much the generic feel good ones
• JimmyEatWorld, AmITheAsshole, lots of dog subs lol has anything been more obviously me?
• hockey, thebachelor, relationships
• wow, tumblr
• niceguys
• greenday, emo, mychemicalromance
• blink182, dbz, smashbros, nintendo

What other fan spaces do you use? (To interact with other fans, not to follow the band/members)

• Twitter: 23 / 52%
• Instagram: 24 / 55%
• Facebook: 8 / 18%
• Discord: 12 / 27%
• Other: 5 / 11%

If you use other spaces, how does the sub compare?

• Better: 25 / 58%
• Worse: 1 / 2%
• About the same: 12 / 28%
• Hard to say: 2 / 5 %
• Other
  • For interactions with other fans it's the best place, but twitter is better for interaction with the band
  • I don't do other social media
  • The sub is the best ever!!!!
  • They both have their pros and cons and they’re very different sites so it’s kind of comparing apples to oranges
  • I think the sub is the most active I've seen the fanbase

What do you like about the sub?

• Being able to connect with other people who love the band, since I don't know any other ATL fans in real life I feel this
• Central to everything and better discussion
• Community sense
• Constant user engagement
• Cool people, no drama, met my friends Jenna and Alex!, golden people! Hey, that's me!
• Everybody is so friendly
• Everyone is allowed to have their own opinions and talk openinly about them. The mods are active and participate in discussions, the survivors, and the off-topic posts.
• Everyone is really nice and respectful (except in Survivors y’all suck lol) Sometimes people have opinions that are wrong lol
• Everyone is very chill and it gives me a place to rant about both meaningless and meaningful things
• everyone is very nice and it’s not a very hard place to just drop in for a bit. also you guys do surveys and stuff so that’s cool
• Fans on here generally seem pretty respectful of each other and I’ve almost never seen any big fights between fans here
• The survivors are really fun and a great way to have fans interact with each other and spark conversations!
• Friendly and informative even to people like me who don't interact regularly
• Friendly, civil discussions
• Getting to know people!
• Good vibes!
• How people are polite
• I like how it’s a free space to share opinions and enjoy the band the way it is rather than having people criticize you for your opinion.
• I like the song survivor and seeing obscure ATL songs
• I like the surveys/survivor stuff
• I like the survivors and things that get people involved
• I love posting my artwork on this sub. I feel like here is where it really gets love and makes me feel soo happy
• Interesting content, the survivor, and we're all awesome!
• It’s about a band I like you really said it best
• It’s friendlier than a lot of others, and there’s a lot less arguing and harsh words
• It’s really friendly and welcoming of new people, there’s no *drama* and it’s a great source of news/updates on the boys.
• Keeps me informed about the boys and the band. Plus the polls are fun and I love seeing everyone’s fan art!
• Ranking songs and albums, general discussion about the band and news
• Really friendly people
• Rian reads it gleefully, while withholding his AMA
• Song Survivor
• That you get a response
• The community
• The community aspect, I feel life everyone knows each other
• The frequency of the post and how everyone (especially the mods) keep everything In order and engaging for everyone who frequents the sub
• The mods are the best
• the niceness and supportiveness of everybody and the song survivor games
• The people :D
• The people & community are so great & kind
• The people are great. Love the inside jokes.
• The people are nice and respectful of others opinions, less intense than twitter as people are generally older or more chill. Also love the interactivity of the survivors and surveys! It's the best.
• The regular members and talking to them
• The sense of community here is amazing. I’ve been in other subs that can get toxic. People respect each other here and that’s difficult to cultivate!
• The survivors. Y'all are all generally wrong tho.
• Very nice people
• Very non-toxic, which is great because some parts of reddit are very much the opposite
• People are really nice! Plus everything is very organized
• The slightly older demographic!
• The mods are nice
• Pretty cool people
• The vibe of the place. It’s very welcoming and safe.
• The quality of the fans here. we are a high quality people

How could we improve?

• Definitely more interaction, but that comes with time
• I took a while to understand what the Sub-basement noise was about. The info is in the post? Could it be more clearly explained?
• Just building subscribers Hopefully Rian has time to make some more alt accounts soon
• Maybe not so much posting in the “basement noise” folder bc at times it can just seem a little chaotic but that’s about all That's kind of what it's for, so all those little threads won't be their own posts
• Mods are intimidating I get this in real life, too, honestly
• Not having to use a computer to get the emojis for flairs you don't!
• RIAN'S AMA out of my hands lol
• Some recent posts seem lower quality but I think that is just with an increase of newer members.
• We need more dudes we are a low %age of dudes but I bet we have more than other places because Reddit's general demographics is mostly men I think
• We’re getting there but better monitoring of low qualify posts. The Basement Noise/daily off topic thread is amazing!
• Don’t do too many countdowns! Do you mean Survivors?
• I'm not involved enough to have a good answer for this.

What would you like to see on the sub for content/activity?

• A continuation of the survivors, whether that be singles survivor or album survivor don't you worry, we've got lots of voting ahead of us
• AMAs with the band/band members GOOD LORD WE ARE TRYING LOL
• competitions maybe for art/covers/etc.? we've done a couple fan art contests and they were pretty well liked so we plan to do another in a few months.
• Discussions on songs we tried this before and it didn't really take off. maybe we can try again
• Everything is v great
• Fan art and more discussions
• I always thought it would fun to do daily or weekly trivia.I LOVE THIS IDEA! I don't know enough ATL trivia so let me take it to the mod team
• I think we all would like to see the AMA from Rian but that's beyond our control. Rian has forgotten about it lol RIAN!! GET ON IT!
• Interaction from the boys 👀 Maybe I just need to criticize Alex more, that's what got him here last time (lol I kid, I kid)
• Lyric discussions We used to have these, they weren't really participated in, and we thought maybe ATL songs were too straight forward to really get into
• Maybe having more fan contests (Art, song covers, etc.) and maybe (If possible) more interaction with the band themselves
• Nothing specific. I just like honest, good discussion topics.
• Polls, rankings, facilitated discussions
• Rían ama :)
• Rian AMA (or any member tbh) I feel like at this point one of the other members could offer an AMA and I'd be like NOPE WE ONLY WANT RIAN. lol
• RIAN'S AMA
• Rian/Alex AMA
• Rians AMA that he lied about hah
• The song survivors are super fun to vote in, and I liked the fan art contest too. Cool to read other people's unpopular opinions, and see others' album rankings. Anything that asks for input/opinions from the community is fun to participate/observe. Sadly I don't have any new ideas for more activities. I just want to express my appreciation for these events!
• Maybe polls on their music or anything related? Just for fun like weekly or something
• Lyric interpretation threads
• I'm not involved enough to have a good answer for this.

Anything You Want To Add?

• Alex Gaskarth has great hair I'm so sorry, but you're wrong.
• Have a good day :)
• Have a nice day!
• Hi Jenna give feeney a kiss for me DONE AND DONE!
• I love this sub
• Keep up the good work
• Love surveys, love the sub, love my boys. Why am I still awake?
• Love y’all <3
• Mods are solid and thank goodness for the people who contribute regularly for us lurkers to have things to read :)
• RIAN'S AMA lmao
• Stream Wake Up, Sunshine by All Time Low okay
• Thank you, mods! You have made this sub a great place to be and I love being part of it!
• the sub is very well run and the mods I think are very nice
• This sub has done so much for me in the last few months. It makes me feel like I have friends in this community! Thank you guys soo much. Also...I'm chancing my arm at this but when a mod slot opens up where can I apply ? Lol
• This sub IS my favorite place (other than concerts)
• You guys are doing a great job and I love it here!