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I Lost between 8.000$ - 10.000$ in 4-5 years / Sports betting is very dangerous

Hello everyone !
I am a 24yo guy. I've been lurking reddit for some time, reading subjects of interest , but i never posted here. I just made this account to share my story about sports gambling / betting addiction. It is not nearly as tragic as others, but i still want to point out the dangers of this "world". Ok, here we go:
I started betting on sports when i was 12-13 years old. I couldn't play online, but still placed bets on the local shops, even if I was under-age. Of course, I started with low stakes, 2-4$ every weekend on football matches (soccer).
The real problem started when I turned 18 , and I opened my first online accounts. Also, I just got my first job by that time so I had more money to play. Ok, it may also be worth mentioning that I am from Europe, Romania. Here, the minimum wage was 350$ a month 5 years ago and now it's just up to maybe 450$ a month. A lot of people are working full time for these salaries, so the amount I lost in these 4-5 years is big here, and I was not from a rich family anyway.
In these 4-5 years, I think I've seen everything. From turning 50$ into 1.000 $ or more in a single day, only to lose it back in 1 hour. I lost basketball spread bets by only 1 point more times that I can remember. Also, on football (soccer), I lost in the last minute of the match more times that I can remember. I lost on "guaranteed" low odds (even 1.05-1.10) more times than I can remember. I don't want to make this very, very long so I will say this: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A SURE BET AND IN THE LONG RUN, MOST PEOPLE WILL LOSE IN THIS GAME. THAT'S THAT.
Now, I will try to point out how sports gambling messed up my mind and the mistakes I've made:
  1. When I won big money, I thought that I can make a living out of this , if I have a strategy and played carefully; THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS MINDSET
  2. I lost sleep on many nights. Sometimes , I used to stay awake just to bet on whatever game was going on. It didn't even matter that I knew nothing about these teams. Sometimes, I just could not sleep after a very big loss. Needless to say, this affected several aspects of my life.
  3. I started chasing my losses. Everyone knows that you shouldn't do this but it's almost impossible. Normally, I wouldn't do it. But, when you lost a big bet in the last seconds, the team you just bet to score missed a chance with an empty goal or when you just need 1 more point in basketball and one player misses 2 free throws before the game finishes, discipline will go out the window, believe me.
  4. More important than the money I lost, I lost time I can't ever get back, I had many nervous breakdowns and my social life has suffered a lot. When your head is locked up in that "world", you don't want to talk to nobody. You can't focus even at work. All you think about is the next bet you wil make and how you will turn things around this time.
Ok, so this got a little longer than I first planned and I still feel that i didn't cover all aspects, but my mind is still a mess, as I just stopped my betting a few days ago. I banned myself from all online bookies and I hope that will be strong enough to prevent a relapse.
In conclusion, sports betting is as dangerous as classical gambling (slots , cards) , maybe even more , because most people believe that they have more chances against the house. This may be true, but in the end , the bookies will beat you, no matter how smart you think you are. I tell you guys: If you just started and maybe you won, the worst thing has happened to you. Just take the money , leave, and never look back. Maybe you think you can do this only as a hobby , but I tell you: most people can't do this and remember that no one starts betting serious stakes from day 1. For most people, it starts as a hobby, but then they find themselves in vicious cycle in no time.
For everyone that had the patience to read all of this, thank you ! If you guys have more questions, I will be glad to answer them , so feel free to ask me anything. I hope you have a great day , and I pray that all gambling addicts find the strenght to stop and stay away from this evil vice.
submitted by Chasing_dark_clouds to GamblingAddiction [link] [comments]

Welcome to /r/CFB! Here is your 2020 Rules Refresher & Information post!

Things are weird. Chaos Ball

Are you new here?

/CFB Ball
We would like to welcome you to the internet's tailgate, /CFB! We are a community of over 900,000 college football fans from all over the globe. There is just something about college football that grabs you and makes you want to scream at a TV, a ref, or - let's be real here - COVID-19 or 2020 in general.
Dumpster Fire
But even with all the bad in the world, there are countless CFB teams for you to root for - in the US and around the world. We guarantee you've got a college football team nearby. We do our best to cover them all.
Montmorency IPN Monash UFPR KIT Uppsala Umoja ESME-ESG Lagos Marines Canterbury (NZ) Nidaros Zlín 富山大学 (Toyama) 天津大学 (Tianjin) 동의대학교 (Eui) Sakarya
Once you have found a team to support you should consider picking up a flair to show your fandom and pride. /CFB has over 2,300 unique flairs to choose from. Make sure you choose a flair on a browser and not any reddit apps. /CFB currently has the ability for dual flairs. This allows you to show your fandom for two teams or your team and its conference, or even show your support for the Duke's Mayonnaise Bowl and wear a flair for your favorite bowl game!
So, yeah, things are weird this year. We're working with this as best we can.
Game Threads
Because things are so up in the air, for the moment we're going to have CFB_Referee post all of the game threads and post game threads. If things stabilize, we may revisit that later in the season, but for the moment that will help us ensure that everything stays accurate.
Useful Information
Here are some links you should visit...
We recommend you take a moment to read the rules and the post rules before posting so you don't violate one by accident. Look for threads already happening on a topic to add your take. Look for weekly threads (see below) to ask questions or share specific ideas. If you're not sure? Send us a modmail to ask!
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Rule Refresher

Here at /CFB we have some pretty simple rules - you can read all of them here. We know we're seeing a lot of new faces around here, so this is especially important right now. For a refresher, here is a TL;DR of some of the important ones to keep in mind.
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Tweets
DON'T TWEET AT CROOTS.

Weekly Threads

Now that the season is beginning, weekly threads will be back up. We have at least one thread each day. Use them! Other threads that cover this information will be removed.
Please note, this may change depending on how things go.
Day Thread Time (ET) Additional Information
Monday MS Paint Monday Varies Theme varies week to week.
The Monday Morning Playoff Committee 11:00 AM A place for you to share playoff hypotheticals and your proposals to change the College Football Playoff.
Betting Discussion Thread 1:00 PM Discuss spreads, oveunders, and prop bets for this week's games.
The Monday Afternoon Conference Realignment Committee 2:30 PM Discuss your hypothetical Conference realignment scenarios and how they might play out!
Tuesday Best of /CFB 10:55 AM Post your nominations for the best posts and comments' from this week on /CFB!
Weekly /CFB Poll Discussion 11:00 AM Discuss /CFB's own poll.
CFB Podcasts & Other Homegrown Media 11:00 AM Share links to and information about podcasts, shows, or material you've made yourself.
Trivia Tuesday Varies Compete to win.
CFP Rankings Show 6:45 PM TBD
CFP Committee Rankings 8:00 PM TBD
CFP Rankings - Serious Discussion 8:00 PM TBD
Wednesday Prediction 11:00 AM Make your predictions.
Dear CFB: Going to or Watching a Game Advice Thread 2:00 PM Ask for advice about going to a game or where to watch one!
Whose Line is it Wednesday* Varies
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TRASH TALK THURSDAY 11:00 AM YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO. (AND DON'T FORGET TO ENABLE CRUISE CONTROL)
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Free Talk Friday 11:00 AM Tell us about you.
Saturday General Discussion: Talk Anything College Football Here! 8:00 AM A general space for chatter throughout the day and talk about non-ESPN Gameday style shows.
Today's Game Index Varies
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Picture/Video/GIFs 9:00 AM Share pictures, highlights, and gifs from games throughout the day.
[Game Thread] Non-FBS Games 11:00 AM A place to discuss non-FBS games.
Featured Games Varies CFB_Referee posted.
/CFB After Dark - Late Night Discussion Thread 10:00 PM Late night college football.
Sunday Post-CFP Selections 9:00 AM TBD
Serious Postgame Discussion Thread 10:55 AM A thread for serious discussion only.
Complain About Your Team 11:00 AM You know you're going to want to at some point.
AP Poll 1:55 PM Will be updated as the results come out.
/CFB Weekly Schedule 5:00 PM A thread with reminders about that week's upcoming threads, when weekly threads are, etc.
Due to volume of submissions, the threads for the AP Poll, and CFP Rankings will be posted automatically by CFB_Referee. The Coaches Poll however is open to being posted as links. Whoever posts first wins. Please be sure to link to the official websites for each poll. Duplicates will be removed.

Pre-Season Threads

Please note, this schedule is subject to change.
Day Thread Time (ET) Additional Information
8/24 Homegrown Media 1:00 PM Share your own writing, podcasts, etc.
8/25 Dear CFB: Going to or Watching a Game Advice Thread 2:00 PM Ask for advice about going to a game or where to watch one for any games this season.
8/26 College Fantasy Football 10:55 AM Discuss your college fantasy football threads. Note that any comments that relate to financial transactions may be removed.
8/27 Complain About Your Team 1:00 PM For the whole season.
8/28 Bold Predictions 11:00 AM For the whole season.
This year, we'll be doing pre-season threads on a conference by conference basis 1 week before they start play, so they'll be staggered across the next month or so.
Day Time Conference Thread
8/26 10:00 AM FCS Season Discussion
1:00 PM C-USA Season Discussion
3:00 PM Sun Belt Season Discussion
8/28 10:00 AM FCS Season Predictions
1:00 PM C-USA Season Predictions
3:00 PM Sun Belt Season Predictions
9/9 1:00 PM ACC Season Discussion
9/11 1:00 PM ACC Season Predictions
9/16 1:00 PM American Season Discussion
9/18 1:00 PM American Season Predictions
9/23 11:00 AM Big 12 Season Discussion
1:00 PM SEC Season Discussion
9/25 11:00 AM Big 12 Season Predictions
1:00 PM SEC Season Predictions

Final Thoughts

This season will be the weirdest in /CFB's history. A Hungry Cougar in the Rain
We've jumped to over 900,000 football fans with more joining every day. We continue to grow and push our outreach even farther, adding more CFB media coverage and outreach, new AMAs, and new options for our users. We're getting more and more new people being brought in by discussions of a much wider range of issues.
Stay safe. Touchdown
Order Ball Stay well.
Wash your hands. Houston Nutt
Nick Saban Watch your sources.
submitted by CFB_Referee to CFB [link] [comments]

NFL: Let's talk about teasers

What is a teaser? For those unaware, teasers are a special type of bet that most books will allow on basketball and football games. There's multiple games on your teaser ticket sort of like a parlay, but the key difference is that you're moving the line several points in your favor. For example, the Chiefs are favored by 9½ tonight but you might be able to get them at -3½ on your teaser ticket.
How much does a teaser bet pay? It varies by book. There used to be a time when 2-team, 6-point teasers on pro football paid at -110 odds. Unfortunately, it seems like -120 is more common to see these days. (Payouts will also differ based on the number of teams and points, but my focus is on 6-points.)
Are all teasers equal? Certainly not. Notice that many football games end with a final score margin of between 3 and 7 points. For example in the NFL last year, 101 games out of 267 (37.8%) ended with a margin of 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 points.
Margin Frequency
0 points 1 game
1 11
2 12
3 27
4 12
5 10
6 20
7 32
8 12
9 1
10 15
11 6
12 2
13 6
14 13
15 4
16 9
17 12
18 11
19 1
20 7
21 8
Teasers that go through these frequent final margins are a better bet.
Blackjack expert Stanford Wong suggested a strategy for playing teasers that said to only play underdogs of +1½, +2, or +2½ points (teased up to +7½, +8, or +8½) and favorites of -7½, -8, or -8½ (teased down to -1½, -2, or -2½). These so-called Wong teasers have had a 100-37 record in the last three years in the NFL.
In comparison, teasers that go through zero (e.g., teasing -3 down to +3) have had a 76-64 record.
Is that good? A 100-37 record is a 73.0% win percentage. If the teasers paid -110, then the threshold required to break even would be 72.4%. At -120, the threshold required to break even is 73.9%. In either case, the percentages are too close to say we've found a definitive pattern.
Can we get better? A hot topic among Wong bettors is whether or not to bet underdogs of +3 points (up to +9). Let's break down the data even further and look at how the bets performed at each spread.
Bet Record
+1½ → +7½ 30-7 81.1%
+2 → +8 19-10 65.5%
+2½ → +8½ 10-3 76.9%
+3 → +9 117-38 75.5%
-7½ → -1½ 30-8 78.9%
-8 → -2 10-7 58.8%
-8½ → -2½ 1-2 33.3%
-9 → -3 18-9 67.7%
In the last three years, it seems like the underdog +3 has been a good bet and that underdogs in general have been pulling their weight better than favorites.
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
Bet Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 176-58 75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 142-45 75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 44-14 75.9%
Bet Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 59-26 69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 48-19 71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 16-6 72.7%
Does it matter who is at home? There's some people that tell you not to tease road favorites, but the data hasn't shown that to be good advice in the last three years.
Bet Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 176-58 75.2%
Road dogs +1½ thru +3 99-28 78.0%
Home dogs +1½ thru +3 77-30 72.0%
Bet Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 59-26 69.4%
Road favs -7½ thru -9 17-6 73.9%
Home favs -7½ thru -9 42-20 67.7%
So what does this all mean? Honestly, I'm not sure. Right now, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy in 2020. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable.
I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits. I'll be including underdog +3 in my tracking, so it probably makes sense to track favorite -9 as well.
What are the Week 1 plays being tracked? I'll be using Bovada's closing number as the determining factor in whether it counts in my tracking or not.
As of the time of this post, the Chiefs are -9½ tonight. If they come down to -9 by kickoff, it counts in my tracking. Otherwise, it doesn't.
As far as Sunday and Monday games go, these are the plays that will be tracked according to the lines as of the time of this post. However, the final list may be slightly different since I'm using the closing number as the determining factor.
  • Carolina +3 → +9
  • Atlanta +2½ → +8½
  • Chicago +3 → +9
  • Green Bay +2½ → +8½
  • Cincinnati +3 → +9
  • LA Rams +3 → +9
  • Denver +2½ → +8½
  • Baltimore -8 → -2
  • Indianapolis -8 → -2
submitted by blackjack_counter to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Brazilian Big12 series, Episode 12/12: São Paulo

Previous episodes: Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Grêmio, Botafogo, Atlético Mineiro, Internacional, Corinthians, Santos, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro
In this series I will present each of the 12 Brazilian teams that together compose the "Big 12". My point is to make them more knowledgeable to you, since each one of these teams have their share of the Brazil national team success and of Brazilian club football accomplishments as a whole. I'll try to be as smooth, efficient and non-boring as I can. If the feedback is positive, I'll keep bringing more to this series. So ok, let's do this!
Method: I'll present the teams in a chronological order, from the oldest foundation (Flamengo-1895) to the latest one (São Paulo-1930). The order will be: Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Grêmio, Botafogo, Atlético Mineiro, Internacional, Corinthians, Santos, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro, São Paulo. How many of these have you heard of?
Extra clubs: Due to a high number of requests, I'll also present 3 teams who don't belong to the Big12, but are also considered big clubs in Brazil: Bahia, Athletico Paranaense and Coritiba. Welcome to the club!
Geographical reference: Before we start, I'd like to ask something very simple from you. I want you to keep in mind that these 12 teams are spread in 4 different States in Brazil. The club's State name is written below, next to the club's name. It has a direct link to Google Maps, so that you can check it out to make this experience more accurate.

Episode 12/12: São Paulo (State: São Paulo), founded in 1930

State rivals: Corinthians, Palmeiras, Santos

Stadium: Morumbi

Mascot: Saint Paul

Major achievements: 3 Intercontinental/Club World Cup (1992, 1993, 2005), 3 Copa Libertadores (1992, 1993, 2005), 6 Brazilian Leagues (1977, 1986, 1991, 2006, 2007, 2008), 1 Supercopa Libertadores (1993)

State League titles: 21 (Against Corinthians' 30, Palmeiras' 23, Santos' 22)

PLAY AND LISTEN TO SÃO PAULO'S ANTHEM WHILE READING - Click here
São Paulo FC, the biggest Brazilian club
São Paulo seems to be the only team in Brazil that has all the major ingredients that make a team, the biggest: lots of international and domestic titles, big fanbase, big stadium, big idols and historical teams. Clubs like Santos or Flamengo come close, but lack one or other ingredient - that's why São Paulo, the only 3x Club World champion and the youngest of the Big12, is considered the biggest club in Brazil!
Brazilian Club International titles Domestic titles Total
São Paulo 12 6 18
Santos 8 9 17
Flamengo 5 12 17
Palmeiras 3 14 17
Cruzeiro 7 10 17
Corinthians 4 11 15
Grêmio 6 8 14
Not only São Paulo leads the title rank, but also the runner-up rank, as you can see below:
Brazilian Club International runner-ups Domestic runner-ups Total
São Paulo 8 8 16
Cruzeiro 9 7 16
Palmeiras 6 5 11
Santos 2 9 11
Internacional 2 8 10
Grêmio 6 4 10
In the entire South America, São Paulo is only behind Boca Juniors and Independiente in international trophies:
South American club Intercontinental/Club World Cup Copa Libertadores Others Total
Boca Juniors 3 6 9 18
Independiente 2 7 5 14
São Paulo 3 3 6 12
River Plate 1 4 5 10
However, you have to consider that in Argentina there are only 5-7 big clubs (Boca, River, Independiente, San Lorenzo, Racing, Estudiantes, Vélez), while in Brazil there are at least 12, making things more difficult to São Paulo.
São Paulo is also the only Brazilian club to win 3x the Intercontinental/Club World Cup, which is considered their biggest feat:
Event Match Goals
Intercontinental Cup 1992 São Paulo 2-1 Barcelona Raí (2x), Stoichkov
Intercontinental Cup 1993 São Paulo 3-2 Milan Palhinha, Cerezo, Müller, Massaro, Papin
Club World Cup 2005 São Paulo 1-0 Liverpool Mineiro
The beginnings
São Paulo was founded in 1930, and accepted people from any origin, social class or ethnicity since their early days. They won their first trophy in 1931, a State League title, led by Friedenreich - who scored 103 goals in 5 years at the club. After a few fusions with other clubs, the team would begin to really shine in the 1940s.
The 1940s: five State League titles
Due to Brazil's huge size and weak infrastructure, there wasn't a National League until 1959 - until then and even afterwards, the State Leagues were the main tournaments.
In the 1940s, São Paulo won 5 of them. At this time, the club also received the nickname "The Dearest Team", because they dared to bring and show a huge São Paulo State Flag in the inauguration of the Pacaembu stadium, in front of 70.000 spectators, including the hated Brazilian dictator Getúlio Vargas.
Leonidas da Silva
The first big idol of the club was Leonidas, present in the 5 State League titles in the 1940s. The Black Diamond had played in two World Cups (1934, 1938) and joined the club in 1942. He scored 140 goals in 212 matches, and retired from football in this same club, in 1950.
It was in this decade that São Paulo gained the respect of the best teams of the city, Palmeiras and Corinthians, who already had 10 State League titles on their account.
In 1943, during a State League draw, a Corinthians' director said that the draw was unnecessary: he flipped a coin and said that if it falls head Palmeiras will be champions, if it falls tail it will be Corinthians. After being questioned about São Paulo, he replied, laughing: "if the coin stands, it will be São Paulo, if it stops in the air, it will be Portuguesa". São Paulo were the champions, and had a huge coin standing on their car during the celebrations at night.
The Steamroller dominated the decade, got the respect of Corinthians and Palmeiras and were now considered a rival. These 3 teams received the nickname of Iron Trio from the media.
1950s-1970: construction of Morumbi, the biggest private stadium in the world
The club destined all their money in the 1950s to the construction of their stadium Morumbi, which would be the biggest private stadium in the world. Without funds to build a strong team, they only won two State Leagues in this period (1953, 1957), with the legendary Hungarian coach Béla Guttmann commanding them in the 1957 title, with 1950 World Cup Golden Ball winner Zizinho on their side.
While São Paulo built their stadium, a young kid named Pelé arrived at Santos, and gave no chance to them, or to the Iron Trio teams in the 1960s.
1970s: back in the game
In this decade, São Paulo won their first Brazilian League title in 1977, and also 3 State Leagues (1970, 1971, 1975), besides one Copa Libertadores runner-up (1974), and one Brazilian League runner-up (1973).
Curiously enough, the 1977 São Paulo wasn't a great team, and nobody bet on them to become Brazilian champions. They beat Atlético Mineiro in the final, on the penalties, after two 0-0 ties. São Paulo missed their first two penalties, but managed to overcome Atlético, who sent three shots away. No São Paulo player was elected to the League's Best XI.
The São Paulo players who stood out in this decade were: Gérson, World Cup champion in 1970, Pedro Rocha, elected to the League's Best XI in 1973, Mirandinha, elected to the League's Best XI in 1973 and called to the 1974 World Cup, Waldir Peres, excellent goalkeeper who won the League Golden Ball in 1975 and played in 3 World Cups (1974, 1978, 1982), Chicão, centre-back who played 312 matches for São Paulo in the 1970s and got called to the 1978 World Cup, and Serginho Chulapa, the club's greatest topscorer, who scored 242 goals in 399 matches for São Paulo between 1973-1982, and played in the 1982 World Cup as a starter, after Careca's injury.
1980s: State dominance
In the 1980s, São Paulo watched their rivals Palmeiras and Santos struggle, as they took home 5 State League titles (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1989).
But it was in the 1986 Brazilian League that São Paulo proved their worth. Led by Careca, they ended the 1st stage undefeated (7W-3D). On the second stage, they kept the good shape, with only 2 defeats in 16 matches, and with 3 wins scoring 5 goals or more.
On the knock-out stage, São Paulo first met Inter de Limeira in the ro16, the current São Paulo State League champions. São Paulo lost the 1st leg 1-2, but gave a 3-0 back in the return leg, with Careca scoring once on each match.
In the quarter-finals, they would play Fluminense, and lost the 1st leg 0-1. In the 2nd leg, Careca opened the score at '67 with this crazy goal, and Müller scored the second ten minutes later.
In the semi-finals, they would face América, a traditional team from Rio de Janeiro, that was big in the old days. América's goalkeeper worked hard, but at '80, Careca finally scored with this shot. In the return leg, Careca scored this genius lob goal from inside the box. The team held América's pressure, and left with a 1-1 tie and the spot in the big final.
The big final would be against Guarani. In the 1st leg at the Morumbi, the topscorers of the tournament, Evair and Careca, scored once each, and the match ended 1-1. The 2nd leg was one of the craziest Brazilian League finals. It ended 1-1 with two own goals, and went to extratime. São Paulo did 2-1 with Pita at '91, but Guarani tied at '97 and scored the 3-2 at '110, with this goal of guts. São Paulo needed a goal in 10 minutes, and at '119, Careca scored to tie the match 3-3 and become the league topscorer. On the penalties, Careca missed São Paulo's first shot, but so did Guarani. São Paulo would score all their 4 other penalties, while Guarani's João Paulo sent it away, so that São Paulo were crowned Brazilian League champions for the 2nd time.
São Paulo had 6 players elected to the League's Best XI: Gilmar, Dario Pereyra, Nelsinho, Bernardo, Pita, and the Golden Ball and league topscorer with 25 goals, Careca.
Also in 1986, São Paulo had 5 players called to the 1986 World Cup, notably the starters Müller and Careca, as well as Oscar, Falcão and Silas. They lost on the penalties to France in the quarter-finals.
1991-1994: Telê Santana Era, the team that dominated the world
Johan Cruyff said, after his Barcelona lost to São Paulo in the 1992 Intercontinental Cup: "if you are to be run over, better be by a Ferrari".
This São Paulo superteam dominated Brazil, South America and the World in these years. They won 2 Intercontinental Cups, 2 Copa Libertadores, 1 Brazilian League, 1 State League, 2 Recopa, 1 Supercopa Libertadores and 1 Copa Conmebol, not to mention the Tereza Herrera (4-1 against Barcelona) and the Ramón de Carranza (4-0 against Real Madrid) in Spain.
Everything started in 1990, with the arrival of Telê Santana, the celebrated Brazil 1982 coach. With him, São Paulo finished 2nd in the Brazilian League, losing to their rival Corinthians on the final.
In 1991, São Paulo began the season in great fashion, winning the Brazilian League by June, with a 67% rate. They led the first stage, then knocked Atlético Mineiro out in the semis after two ties (1-1, 0-0), before beating Bragantino in the final (1-0 and 0-0), with this goal from Tilico on the 1st leg. São Paulo were crowned Brazilian League champions for the 3rd time. Two São Paulo players were elected to the League Best XI: Ricardo Rocha and Leonardo.
On December 1991, São Paulo had their revenge against Corinthians in the State League final: in front of 102.000 spectators at the Morumbi, Raí scored a hat-trick and ended the conversation. 3-0 to São Paulo on the first leg, and a 0-0 tie in the second leg to secure the State League title against Corinthians.
1992: the first Copa Libertadores and Club World titles
In this season, São Paulo won the Copa Libertadores on the first semester, then the Intercontinental Cup and the State League titles on the second.
At the beginning, the coach Telê used the reserves in the Copa Libertadores, considering it a way too disloyal competition. But after a 0-3 defeat and with the pressure from the board to take it seriously, he changed his strategy and qualified from the group stage on the 2nd place, with 3W-2D-1L, behind Criciúma.
São Paulo passed through Nacional (Uruguay) in the ro16 without much problems and 2 wins (1-0, 2-0).
In the quarter-finals, São Paulo suffered, but beat Criciúma 1-0 at home with this goal from Macedo. In the 2nd leg, Criciúma opened the score at '10, but Palhinha tied with this great goal at '55, qualifying his team to the semis.
In the semis against Barcelona (Ecuador), São Paulo smashed them 3-0 at home, with another great goal from Palhinha. In the 2nd leg in Ecuador, São Paulo goalkeeper Zetti performed this huge mistake as Barcelona scored 2-0 at '87, but it was too late and São Paulo qualified to the final.
In the big final against Newell's Old Boys (Argentina), São Paulo lost the 1st leg in Argentina, 0-1. At home, with a crowd of 105.000 at the Morumbi, Raí scored 1-0 from a penalty at '65. The match ended and went to the penalties. The Argentines hit the post on their first shot, but São Paulo lost their third one. The Argentines missed their 4th shot, while Cafu scored. Zetti saved Newell's 5th shot - and São Paulo were crowned South American champions for the first time.
Palhinha was the Copa Libertadores topscorer with 7 goals. This title qualified São Paulo to the Intercontinental Cup, to play against European champions Barcelona in December.
São Paulo 2-1 Barcelona: the 1992 Intercontinental Cup title
In August, São Paulo had already beaten Barça 4-1 for the Tereza Herrera Trophy (5mn video), with Müller scoring this nice goal. Four months later, they would meet in Tokyo for the Intercontinental Cup trophy.
Bulgarian Stoichkov opened the score at '12 with this amazing goal. São Paulo, led by Raí, quickly dominated the match and tied at '27: Müller did a great Cruyffesque turn and assisted Raí to score. Minutes later, Müller almost scored this great lob goal. In the second half, Barcelona almost scored again, but Ronaldão saved on the line. At '78, Raí scored from this no-chance free-kick on the GK side to overcome the score to 2-1 in São Paulo's favor. Not much else was done, the match ended, and São Paulo were crowned for the first time Club World champions.
Raí, who scored a brace, was elected Man of the Match.
São Paulo - 2 1 - Barcelona
1. Zetti 1. Zubizarreta
2. Vítor 2. Ferrer
4. Ronaldão 4. Koeman
3. Adilson 3. Guardiola
6. Ronaldo Luís 5. Sacristán
5. Pintado 6. Bakero (Goikoetxea)
8. Toninho Cerezo (Dinho) 7. Amor
10. Raí 10. Witschge
11. Cafu 11. Beigiristain (Nadal)
7. Müller 8. Stoichkov
9. Palhinha 9. Laudrup
Telê Santana Johan Cruyff
One week after the title, on the 20th December, São Paulo played the 2nd leg of the São Paulo State League final, against rivals Palmeiras. São Paulo had won the 1st leg 4-2, with a hat-trick by Raí and this great goal by Cafu. In the 2nd and final leg, in front of 111.000 spectators, São Paulo won 2-1, with goals by Müller and Cerezo, to secure their 18th State League title and tie with Palmeiras in the State League title ranking.
São Paulo played 84 matches in 1992, with 45W-21D-18L (66% rate) and 133 goals scored. Raí was the topscorer with 31 goals, folllowed by Palhinha (25) and Müller (24).
1993: International Quadruple Crown, São Paulo dominates the World again
São Paulo started the season playing the São Paulo State League. However, the 1990s was a Golden Era of Brazilian football, and the State League was dominated by a rich Palmeiras sponsored by Parmalat, with Roberto Carlos, César Sampaio, Edílson, Zinho and Edmundo - so that São Paulo finished 3rd.
São Paulo were focused in the 1993 Copa Libertadores, which they entered in the ro16, as returning champions. At first they had a 1992 rematch against Newell's Old Boys (Argentina): they lost 0-2 in Argentina, but stomped them 4-0 at home in the 2nd leg (3mn29 video).
In the quarter-finals, they met Flamengo. Palhinha scored this beautiful lob goal at the Maracanã, in the 1st leg that ended 1-1. At home, Dinho almost scored from this crazy free-kick, but Müller didn't forgive and scored this nice goal at '24. Right-back Vitor saved São Paulo with the goal empty moments later, and then he assisted Cafu to score the second and qualifying goal at '68.
In the semis, São Paulo sent Cerro Porteño (Paraguay) home, after a 1-0 victory at home and a 0-0 tie away. In the 2nd leg, after a corner kick by Arce, Ronaldo Luís saved São Paulo on the goal line.
In the big final, São Paulo destroyed Universidad Católica (Chile). In the 1st leg at home, they were leading 5-0 at '70, before the Chileans scored their goal of honor at '85 - goals and highlights here (7mn13 video). In the 2nd leg in Chile, São Paulo lost 0-2, and were crowned back-to-back Copa Libertadores champions.
Raí left to French club PSG after the Libertadores title. In this first span (1987-93) at the club, he scored 111 goals in 306 matches, as a midfielder. He would come back later, from 1998 until 2000.
In September, São Paulo won their 2nd international trophy of the year - the Recopa Sudamericana, against Cruzeiro (0-0, 0-0, p.k. 4-2).
In November, São Paulo won their 3rd international trophy of the year - the Supercopa Libertadores, which gathered all the 16 Libertadores champions in history. After beating Independiente (Argentina) (2-0, 1-1), Grêmio (2-2, 1-0), Atlético Nacional (Colombia) (1-0, 1-2, p.k. 5-4) and Flamengo (2-2, 2-2, p.k. 5-3) in the final, they only needed a win in the Intercontinental Cup against the AC Milan of Fabio Capello to claim the unique International Quadruple Crown.
São Paulo 3-2 Milan: the 1993 Intercontinental Cup back-to-back title
The early 1990s Milan was legendary - Gli Invicibili (The Invincibles) that won the 1991/92 Serie A unbeaten, reaching a 58-match run with no defeats. Baresi, Costacurta and Maldini, one of the strongest defences in football history, also Desailly and Donadoni in midfield, plus Massaro and Jean-Pierre Papin in attack. This Milan had 5 starters of the 1994 WC final against Brazil - São Paulo had none, actually only 5 bench players (Zetti, Ronaldão, Leonardo, Müller, and Cafu - who was subbed in during the final).
This 1993/94 Milan only conceded 25 goals in 54 matches, but São Paulo somehow found a way to score 3 against them.
Milan started the match better, with this crazy shot from Massaro. But it was São Paulo who opened the score at '19 with Palhinha, after this cross from Cafu. Massaro tied at the beginning of the 2nd half, but Cerezo scored the second at '59 after a cross from Leonardo. Papin tied it 2-2 at '81 from a header. But 7 minutes later at '88, this funny back/knee goal happened, scored by Müller. São Paulo held the pressure, the match ended and the World belong to São Paulo once again, for the second year in a row.
Toninho Cerezo was elected Man of the Match. With this title, São Paulo joined Pelé's Santos record of winning two back-to-back Copa Libertadores and Club World titles - they are the only South American teams to have done so until today, and probably, forever.
São Paulo - 3 2 - Milan
1. Zetti 1. Rossi
2. Cafu 2. Panucci
4. Ronaldão 6. Baresi
3. Válber 4. Costacurta
6. André Luiz 3. Maldini
5. Dinho 8. Desailly
8. Doriva 5. Albertini (Tassotti)
11. Toninho Cerezo 7. Donadoni
10. Leonardo 11. Massaro
9. Palhinha (Juninho Paulista) 10. Papin
7. Müller 9. Raducioiu (Orlando)
Telê Santana Fabio Capello
With this title, São Paulo won the International Quadruple Crown, and is the only team in the South American history to have achieved it.
Date International Trophy Adversary
May 26th 1993 Copa Libertadores Universidad Católica (Chile)
September 29th 1993 Recopa Sudamericana Cruzeiro
November 24th 1993 Supercopa Libertadores Flamengo
December 12th 1993 Intercontinental Cup Milan (Italy)
In 1993, São Paulo played 98 matches, with 46W-30D-22L (62% rate), scoring 163 goals. Palhinha and Raí were the topscorers with 22 goals each, followed by Cafu (20) and Müller (15).
Player Period Apps Goals Brazil NT Caps Goals World Cup att.
Zetti 1990-97 432 - 17 - 1 (1994)
Cafu 1990-94 273 38 150 5 4 (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006)
Valber 1992-97 159 5 12 - -
Ronaldão 1986-93 300 3 14 3 1 (1994)
Ronaldo Luís 1992-95 109 2 - - -
André Luiz 1993-96 90 9 12 1 -
Pintado 1992-93 116 2 - - -
Doriva 1991-94 81 1 14 - 1 (1998)
Dinho 1992-93 113 12 1 - -
Toninho Cerezo 1992-93 72 7 73 5 2 (1978, 1980)
Raí 1987-93, 98-2000 393 128 49 17 1 (1994)
Leonardo 1990-91, 93-94, 2001 112 17 60 7 2 (1994, 1998)
Müller 1984-88, 90-94, 1996 191 110 59 12 3 (1986, 1990, 1994)
Palhinha 1992-95 229 71 16 5 -
Juninho Paulista 1993-95 141 22 50 5 1 (2002)
1994-95: the end of the Telê Era
Before Telê started to get sick in 1995, he had time to collect the 1994 Recopa Sudamericana and the 1994 Copa Conmebol - the latter with the reserve team, called Little Express, with upcoming talents such as Rogério Ceni, Juninho Paulista, and Denílson, who even beat the traditional Peñarol (Uruguay) 6-1 in the final - the largest score in a South American final ever.
He also reached the 1994 Copa Libertadores final, but lost it on the penalties to Vélez Sarsfield (Argentina) (0-1, 1-0, p.k. 3-5).
Telê passed away in 2006, at the age of 74, and is considered the best Brazilian coach in history. He inspired a series of world class coaches, namely Marcelo Bielsa, Arrigo Sachi and Pep Guardiola - notably with his Brazil 1982 and São Paulo 90-94 sides.
1996-2004: Rebuilding times, the club that almost wins
In this period, São Paulo was known for building good teams and revealing great players, but without collecting trophies. They only won 2 State Leagues (1998, 2000), 1 Rio-São Paulo Tournament (2001), and an irrelevant Copa Master da Conmebol (1996).
On the other hand, they finished 2nd in three State Leagues (1996, 1997, 2003), two Rio-São Paulo (1998, 2002), 1 Copa dos Campeões (2001), 1 Supercopa Libertadores (1997) and one traumatic Copa do Brasil (2000), losing the title in the last 10 minutes. They also reached 1 Copa Libertadores semi-final (2004), 1 Copa Sudamericana semi-final (2003) and finished 3rd in two Brazilian Leagues (2003, 2004). Meanwhile, their rivals Corinthians and Palmeiras were collecting trophy after trophy, while Santos started to reemerge to big titles.
The highlights of this period were the return of Raí in 1998 and his performance (7mn video) against Corinthians in the State League final, the performances of Rogério Ceni, Belletti, França, Dodô, Marcelinho Paraíba and Luís Fabiano, and the revelations of Denílson, Julio Baptista and Kaká. Three of them even represented São Paulo at the 2002 World Cup title (Rogério Ceni, Belletti, Kaká), as well as Edmilson and Denilson, who lived this period at the club and were now in Europe. But the trophies weren't coming.
Kaká, notably, appeared in 2001 in the Rio-São Paulo Tournament final. He entered the match at 0-1, and scored two goals in two minutes, thus taking the title home. He performed well in the 2001 Brazilian League, but was knocked out in the quarter-finals.
After the 2002 World Cup title in June, Kaká returned to São Paulo and tore the Brazilian League apart with Luis Fabiano, winning the Golden Ball Award. However, the title didn't come again, as they lost in the quarter-finals (1-3, 1-2) to the uprising young talents of Santos' Diego and Robinho. The São Paulo supporters were extremely angry at Kaká, calling him a popcorn maker (meaning choker in Brazil), and demanded his exit, notably after another defeat in the 2003 State League final (2-3, 2-3) to rivals Corinthians. Kaká then left the club in 2003 to join Milan. He played 131 matches and scored 48 goals for São Paulo, in this period (2001-2003).
Player Period Apps Goals Brazil NT Caps Goals World Cup att.
Rogério Ceni 1990-2015 1237 131 18 - 2 (2002, 2006)
Edmilson 1994-00 256 1 40 1 1 (2002)
Belletti 1996-02 200 16 51 1 1 (2002)
França 1996-02 327 182 8 1 -
Dodô 1995-99 169 93 5 2 -
Marcelinho Paraíba 1997-00, 2010-11 201 50 6 1 -
Denilson 1994-98 191 26 61 8 2 (1998, 2002)
Kaká 2001-03, 2014 155 51 95 31 3 (2002, 2006, 2010)
Luís Fabiano 2001-04, 2011-15 347 213 45 28 1 (2010)
2005, Libertadores, Club World Cup and Rogério Ceni - the myth, the legend, the 1
Before 2005, Rogério Ceni was considered just a good goalkeeper - after that, he became a club idol and started de facto his legacy. Ceni arrived at the club in 1990, at the age of 17. He got promoted to Telê's main team in 1992, after the death of third goalkeeper Alexandre, and collected some important titles under him, as reserve. He started playing in 1997, for both São Paulo and Brazil NT - his known antipathy however didn't help him for Brazil, specially with so many talents around with more empathy, like Taffarel and Marcos, or with more skills, like Dida. He developed himself as a world class free-kick taker - and that, somehow, worked against him when people analyzed his goalkeeping abilities.
Rogério Ceni is the goalkeeper with the most goals scored in history, with 131 goals in 1237 matches for São Paulo - 69 from penalties, 61 from free-kicks. In 2005, he notably scored 21 goals in 75 matches, being the team's topscorer of the season.
The team started the 2005 season with some good players from 2004: Cicinho, Fabão, Lugano, Josué, Danilo, Tardelli and Grafite. With the arrival of Júnior, Mineiro, Amoroso and Luizão, the team was ready to dominate South America and the world for the third time.
They started winning the São Paulo State League, led by the coach Émerson Leão, main responsible for building the team, since his arrival on September 2004. He would then leave to Japan, being subbed by Paulo Autuori.
In the Copa Libertadores group stage, São Paulo ended 1st, with 3W at home and 3D away, against The Strongest (Bolivia) (3-3, 3-0), Universidad de Chile (Chile) (4-2, 1-1) and Quilmes (Argentina) (2-2, 3-1). Highlights to this free-kick goal by Rogério Ceni against Universidad.
In the ro16, São Paulo met their city rivals Palmeiras, and won the 1st leg 1-0 away with this great goal by Cicinho. In the 2nd leg at home, Rogério Ceni and Cicinho scored at '81 and '89 to beat Palmeiras 2-0.
In the quarter-finals, Tigres (Mexico) lost 0-4 to São Paulo in the 1st leg - Ceni opened the score with this great free-kick and also scored the third from another free-kick. In Mexico, they lost 1-2, but qualified anyway.
River Plate (Argentina) would be their adversary in the semis. At home, São Paulo hit the post twice, and won by 2-0, with goals from Danilo at '76 and Rogério Ceni, from this penalty at '89. In Argentina, São Paulo won 3-2, without much problems.
In the big final, São Paulo met Athletico Paranaense, and tied 1-1 in the 1st leg (away), with this funny own goal when they were losing 0-1. In the 2nd leg at home, São Paulo won 4-0: first with Amoroso at '16. Athletico then missed a penalty, and São Paulo scored the 2nd at '52 with Fabão. Luizão scored the 3rd and Tardelli the 4th. São Paulo were for the 3rd time, the Copa Libertadores champions, and the first Brazilian team to achieve it.
Ceni and Luizão were the topscorers of the team, with 5 goals each. This title qualified them to the 2005 Club World Cup.
2005 Club World Cup: São Paulo 1-0 Liverpool, 3x Club World champions
In Japan for their 3rd time, São Paulo first beat Al-Ittihad (Saudi Arabia) 3-2 in the semis, so they could face European champions Liverpool in the final.
The English team hadn't conceded a goal in 10 matches, and went full-attack on São Paulo, who defended themselves. But at '27, Mineiro scored the only goal of the match after a chipping from Aloisio. São Paulo defended as they could, with great help from Ceni, who performed the save of the year after Gerrard's free-kick at '51. The match ended at '93, and São Paulo were crowned Club World champions for the third time.
Ceni was elected Man of the Match and Golden Ball of the Cup.
São Paulo - 1 0 - Liverpool
1. Rogério Ceni 12. Pepe Reina
5. Lugano 3. Finnan
3. Fabão 4. Hyypiä
4. Edcarlos 23. Carragher
2. Cicinho 2. Warnock (Riise)
6. Júnior 22. Sissoko (Pongolle)
7. Mineiro 8. Gerrard
8. Josué 14. Xabi Alonso
10. Danilo 7. Kewell
14. Aloísio (Grafite) 10. Luis Garcia
11. Amoroso 19. Morientes (Crouch)
Paulo Autuori Rafael Benítez
2006-08: the Brazilian Sovereign
In 2006, São Paulo reached once again the Copa Libertadores final, but lost to Internacional (1-2, 2-2).
The team then focused on the Brazilian League, which they would win three consecutive times. Led by coach Muricy Ramalho, they would play defensive football (3-5-2) and show great regularity - though always getting eliminated in knock-out competitions. With these 3 titles, they reached a total of 6 league titles in their history.
In these 3 league titles, São Paulo played 114 matches, with 66 wins and only 16 defeats (overall rate of 67%), conceding only 87 goals.
11 São Paulo players were elected to the League's Best XI in this period: Ceni, Ilsinho, Fabão, Mineiro and Aloísio (2006), Ceni, Breno, Richarlyson, Hernanes (2007), Ceni, André Dias, Miranda, Hernanes and Borges (2008). Highlights to Hernanes, great São Paulo revelation, who later shone in Europe.
Player Period Apps Goals Brazil NT Caps Goals World Cup att.
Cicinho 2004-05, 2010 151 21 15 1 1 (2006)
Lugano (Uruguay) 2003-06, 2016-17 213 13 95 10 2 (2010, 2014)
Júnior 2004-08 198 11 22 1 1 (2002)
Mineiro 2005-07 138 7 25 -
Josué 2005-07 158 7 28 1 1 (2010)
Danilo 2004-06 194 37 - - -
Grafite 2004-06 75 27 4 1 1 (2010)
Amoroso 2005 26 18 20 10 -
Luizão 2005 28 11 17 3 1 (2002)
Aloísio 2005-08 124 23 - - -
Miranda 2006-11 260 10 58 3 1 (2018)
Richarlyson 2005-10 147 6 2 - -
Hernanes 2005-10, 2017, 2019- 297 49 27 2 1 (2014)
2009-today
The São Paulo that brought fear to their adversaries disappeared in this period, collecting only one Copa Sudamericana in 2012. They managed however to reach two Copa Libertadores semi-finals (2010, 2016), two Copa do Brasil semi-finals (2012, 2015) and one 2nd place in the Brazilian League (2014). They also revealed Casemiro and Lucas Moura, among others.
São Paulo is one of the 3 Brazilian clubs to never be relegated.
To this day, São Paulo has the 3rd largest fanbase in Brazil, with 17 million supporters, and a stadium attendance average of 27.400, as of 2019.
If you have any questions about Brazilian football, feel free to join us at futebol, where you'll be very welcomed!
submitted by majinmattossj2 to soccer [link] [comments]

Short Summaries of previous Subvertadown Analyses -- an Archive, with links

"Damnit I was told there'd be no math!!"
Many of you know that I've posted a number of stats-heavy posts, which can be difficult to digest. But they are meant to improve your overall understanding of the game of fantasy football. So I wanted to make a single post meant to function as an archive.
Below you'll find links to the analysis posts. I have also highlighted some "nuggets", in bullet point form, so you don't necessarily need to go back and read the whole posts.
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Description of "what I do" in this year's Intro post: [Link]

Posts about Overall FF Statistics

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(1) Predictability and Randomness, for each Position [Link]:
(overview of how to understand the basic stats behind the game)
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(2) Updated Values of the Skill/Luck ratios, for each fantasy position, covering 3 years: [Link]
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(3) Defensive scoring can be adjusted to be more predictable. [Link]
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(4) Streaming QBs is a viable strategy-- if your league is not too deep. [Link]
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(5) Streaming Kickers can be more effective than trying to own the top kicker: [Link]
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Commentary on how to approach rankings

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(1) "Fantasy Points Allowed" are not very useful for making lineup decisions. [Link]
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(2) Why Rankers don't always rank teams the way you expect. [Link]
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(3) There are good ways and bad ways of assessing weekly accuracy: [Link]
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(4) Here are some intuitive (fun...?) ways to interpret the "accuracy correlation coefficient" in fantasy football [Link]
  1. Accuracy can be represented by the "controllable range of points" (often around 8-12 points)
  2. ... or as the "expected rank" outcome of the weekly #1 ranked player (often around the #8 spot)
  3. ... or as the "probability that the lowest ranked player outscores the top-ranked player" (often around 5% - 15%).
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(5) Why and when to stash D/STs around playoffs [Link]

Less useful stuff...: Just some old, oddball statistical observations etc.

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(1) Pulling out meaningful trends, from the seasonal randomness: [Link]
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(2) A more meaningful calculation of "consistency", for fantasy production: [Link]
  1. Seasonal "win rate"-- each score relative to the whole collection of scores
  2. Sharpe ratio (a useful measure of risk/reward)
  3. Truncated average-- a procedure where you apply score cut-offs before averaging.
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(3) Correlations I found interesting (this is outdated and could use an update): [Link]
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Descriptions of my models

2020 intro. DST 2019 intro. Kicker 2019 intro
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You are welcome to plant the seed in my head for any similar types of analysis you'd like to see. Bigger tasks I may not get to it right away, but at least I can collect ideas for the off-season.
Some of you have previously asked if you can support this stuff as well as my projection posts. So I set it up and now you can tip a $3+ field goal at my newly created Patreon site (suggested by you). It's totally voluntary, but know that donations go directly to lifting my spirits.
submitted by subvertadown to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Gambling INTPs?

Any INTP knows the odds are against them all the time and that is enough to deter them. But I've always been a gambler. In middle school I got a multigame mini pool table, table tennis, and Roulette wheel and card table. My friends would come over and gamble money or things. My friend's mom disapproved and made him give me some stuff back (haha). I just didn't know I had to rake games to be "the house." In middle school the black kids taught white kids craps and we'd shoot for dollars. I still love a good dice game. We'd have them on payday after close a couple jobs ago. The shit talking is so much better than poker games.
In HS I gambled poker and chess a lot. My favorite poker game was played where everyone had 2.25g of shrooms in them. No poker faces and it didn't last that long. Not great at poker. I've gambled on Chess pretty successfully. Not great at Spades.
But I'm an INTP and Casinos aren't my thing. Rather gamble at pool at a dive bar.
That said I'm doing a lot of sports betting right now. I once read that a professional sports gambler only wins 55% of the time but they have advanced knowledge in props, parlays, hedging etc. I just figured at college and to a lesser extent pro football, I could pick the winner above 55% maybe even against against--the-spread. My favorite former gf was good at betting on the ponies because she was into horses and leased one, so she had similar inside knowledge as someone who's watched football for 25yrs
I put $150 deposit and got $165 because they passed some BTC savings onto me. First week I bet the full $165. I remember the bets too. $45 on Duke (Lost but beat the spread) Same with the $45 I put on S. Alabama. $45 on Coastal Carolina who won outright against Kansas $45. Because the house rakes the games I'd only win about $40 off each so that's $270. But I put a $30 parlay on all three winning and won $180. Turned $165 into $360 (not exact--change and some numbers were rounded). I qualified for a bonus $165 for betting everything. That's a cool $425.
I thought "Holy Shit I can just go pro" beginners luck. It was also right after I lost my job and I'm moving for a new one mid October. Back to my home city and old neighborhood. Pretty psyched really except moving is a hassle.
Two weeks ago lost $70. I thought that comes with the territory of a pro sports better. I broke even last week. This week I chose a new strategy and bet on 7 games instead of 3. Truth was I don't know a certain percentage. I know games I "know" but I only lost $60. It just feels worse because I went 1-6 instead of two weeks ago when I went 1-2. Plus I lose some change on the low probability parlays.
The problem is that I just dipped into my other $165 to bet on pro football. Put in a couple bets and a parlay. The winnings get transferred into my main account. I'm still up either $80 in my account (I can't cash in the "free money")
My floor is $200 because I wanna make at least $50 off this fun lil exercise but I see how addictive it is for the first time. I even sought out a Bitcoin chess gambling site mainly used by Africans but I don't play because either I'm not better at Chess than Nigerian Royalty or they use chess bots or both. It also was pretty obviously used for money laundering which is what the gambling sites are also used for. Now I'm betting on Sunday football. Not just Saturday.
I guess my cashout ceiling is a grand but I don't see that happening haha.
Point is that wk2 college football this year was like my first joint, the first time I mixed valium-codeine-and a belt of scotch at 14. The first time I painted something halfway decent under a bridge at 16. The first time I fucked a girl at 17. The first time I had an audience in stitches at 22 (standup). All very pleasurable and only relatively routinely done. Except maybe sex and drugs but they have other major downsides.
Hell when I learned to read at 8 I was attached to books my whole life but nobody thinks that's bad. Haha.
Do other people gamble?
I'm extraverted enough that if someone has dice on the street I'll shoot or if they have a chess game at a coffee shop. I'll bet $20.
Best in person bet was with a frenemy in my group who was the epitome of iamverysmart and everyone in my group thought he was a genius. I took $20 off him in front of everyone and he refused to try to win it back. Bad look for him.
I hope I can keep it just for fun. Any other INTP gamblers on here?
Edit: Forgot to mention I won $400+ in a $20 pool for the 2011 March Madness B-Ball tourney. I watched none of the regular season (like usual) but knew UConn was good but nobody picked them as they were a #3 seed. I didn't win most rounds either. Dumb luck. It's funny that I forgot because it was less recent than that grudge match against that guy I played chess against.
submitted by StoopSign to INTP [link] [comments]

Strategy?

I'm just getting started. Started with $100 last week and turned it into $113 on mostly college football games.
But is dropping $10 and $20 bets on a few games a good strategy or is it better to drop $100 on one that has good odds? And by good I mean like -750.
Also, I'm only betting moneyline right now. I'm not confident enough to do spreads and I don't know what a parlay is yet, lol.
submitted by weRborg to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

A Creative Discussion on the Quarterback Situation

In an attempt to stir up something more substantial in how it relates to the current Jimmy discussion, I wanted to put forth some interesting ideas (involving Jimmy and not) so that we could simply think about the road ahead. The NFL is extremely hard to predict, but as fans of the 49ers, I believe we'd all like to examine the future and imagine those in which we win another Lombardi. I like the memes too, don't get me wrong, but I'm not a huge fan of the tiny whining posts. Let's try to make something with a little more meat to it.
Now, be warned. There will be extremely unpopular OPINIONS below. But, if you don't like hot takes, stay out of Real's kitchen. That's what I always say... or at least, I'm saying it now... okay, I won't say it again. Anyways, here we go.
Other Options - Part 1:
That's right, I said it. Here are things as I see it.
  1. We continue to play with Jimmy G at the helm. Look, this is NOT a doomsday opinion because we lost the opener, it's the way I've personally felt since last season. This guy isn't going to win a Super Bowl of his own volition. If we win a Super Bowl with him (I am agreeing that it's possible, by the way), it would ultimately in spite of his ability, not because of it. It's not as bad as having Trent Dilfer at QB, so if he can win one maybe Jimmy can too, but he's just simply not this out of the world potential talent that people once thought he could grow into. I am of the opinion that he essentially played at his cap at the end of 2017 when we thought that was his floor and believed he would grow tremendously.
    The reality is... he's okay. He might even be the new Dalton line, to be honest. He's better than other starters in the league, but we also have probably the easiest starting QB job in the entire National Football League. Our team is fucking stacked at a lot of key positions. The QB here is asked to throw with a quick release in the short to intermediate range in fairly open lanes. This is often times due to Shanahan's WR philosophy of "one can be schemed into an open look, what matters more is what is done once the ball is in your hands."
    Here are some of the other requirements of being the 49ers QB - do NOT take a sack if it can be helped, do NOT be inaccurate on these short range passes, and be smart enough to absorb this playbook. Compared to every single starting QB job in the league, it's less responsibility. The only exception MIGHT be the Titans and Tannehill's position, but only because their offense is far more rudimentary in it's application, largely because they have a Henry. It works for them, I'm not knocking the Titans at all, Shanahan's offense is just objectively more intricate. Now, be honest, even a guy like Gardner Minshew (who seems pretty good honestly!) is asked to do more than Jimmy is here. Jimmy often times struggles to meet those requirements (specifically, inconsistent accuracy) while excelling at his quick release, which ultimately doesn't matter if you aren't accurate, as well as his smarts. Jimmy is a smart guy, scoring 29 on the Wonderlic. Just how important is the Wonderlic for QB's? It's debatable. Lamar Jackson scored a 13. What isn't debatable is that counting Mahomes, the last 10 Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks — Tom Brady (33), Nick Foles (29), Peyton Manning (28), Russell Wilson (28), Joe Flacco (27), Eli Manning (39), Aaron Rodgers (35), Drew Brees (28) and Ben Roethlisberger (25) — had an average Wonderlic score of 29.6. I'd argue it's probably more important for one of the hardest playbooks in the league.
    Now, IF this is the option, I think the absolute best way to go about it is to pay Jimmy in a bracket that makes us reach a sweet spot in between of paying a rookie QB and resetting the market for your franchise guy. I don't think the $27.5m average is worth it for ol' Jimbo even if the top tier QB's keep making more and more money. He simply doesn't belong in that category or conversation. I'm not sure what exactly this figure should be, but it is probably in the $19m to $25m range for a per year average, but obviously it all depends on a multitude of things (how much QB contracts continue to trend up, how far the cap drops and what it's at when you got to extend him, etc.) Currently, he's on the books for $23.8m this year, and $24.1 in 2021, and $24.2 in 2022. The ultimate idea here is that if we can't have an upper echelon QB, he should be paid less than he currently is, and that way we can at least try to stay stacked in as many positions as financially possible. At any higher a dollar figure, I'd have a tough time not thinking it'd be better to draft a kid that costs like $4m - $7m a year and going aggressive in free agency for years to come.
Other Options - Part 2:
Now, here's where it's actually actually gets real spicy boys, buckle up.
  1. If Rodgers wants to leave Green Bay, we're obviously the prime candidate and I'm highly interested even if it's only for a season or two. This would be one of, if not, the best team he's ever been on. Granted, he's probably gonna light it up this year and they'll just let Love rot on the bench behind him if they have to. Like brady, I don't think he'll leave until he's over the hill, if he does leave at all. Despite their apparent rift (Rodgers and Green Bay's management) they'll eventually trade bait Love and draft someone else to be the heir in a few years. Rodgers still has seasons (plural) of top 3-5 QB left in him, in my opinion. I'd bet a lot of chicken nuggets that he'd bring a Super Bowl to The Bay with this roster.
  2. If the Browns get smoked on Thursday and they initiate "Lose for Lawrence" protocol and ditch the sunk-cost fallacy due to the recent Arizona Cardinals successful model of doing so, I'd love to have Baker Mayfield. There, I said it. Hammer me for it, go ahead. Let me hear it - "Baker sucks!" "He's washed!" "What a trashcan!" "Can't pass to OBJ and Landry wtf is he gonna do here?!"
    Ok, shut up and let me tell you.
    I like this kid. I know his mentality/demeanor might not be your thing, but let me tell you one thing that might change your mind even just a little bit - it's not an act for him. The dude has a genuine and strong-willed belief that he can be the best. Despite the cliche, I think that (while it can manifest in many different ways) trait is borderline required to be "that guy" in the National Football League. Wilson, Mahomes, Lamar, they all do it different ways. Wilson through copious amounts of seemingly (but probably, not really) kinda fake "goodness" and miracle water sales. Lamar just has Mark Ingram say it all for him. Mahomes has his ketchup on steak swagger. If you want to compare Baker's demeanor to any current top QB, it's honestly probably Rodgers. Lots of people don't like Rodgers cause he's kinda an arrogant prick sometimes. Baker is similar. Regardless of how successful he has been so far and therefore can't back it up yet, that didn't seem to matter to Rodgers either when he said he'd make us regret not drafting him before he ever played a down in the league.
    Now, onto his play. I watched this guy in person a couple of times while visiting my brother who was going to OU during Baker's reign. I think he's legit. His arm is actually pretty powerful (somehow this has become a flipped narrative on /nfl lately) and I've personally seen him overthrow a receiver that was slowing down because of a whistle (during Baker's windup so he let it loose anyways) uncorking an absolutely BEAUTIFUL 70 yarder. He sits low into his throw really naturally and, memes aside, the boy has a THICC rear end so he can really get down and generate power from below and through the hips like you're supposed to.
    Here's the problem though - he's not playing well right now. Why? Well, part of it is his Alex Smith-esque cast of Duck Duck Goose OC's and HC's (I believe he set the record for the most changes this early in his career in the off season). I think another large part of it is the toxic football relationship he has with OBJ and attempting to feed him. That's just my opinion, but let's at least look at some stats. At OU, he was extremely accurate. 68.1%, 70.9%, and 70.5% in his 3 years there. That puts him in the same range as Drew "The Wild Midget" Brees and "The Sons of Drew Brees" (otherwise known as guys that aren't trusted to make hard throws, lol)
2019 Completion % Rankings Percentage
1. Drew Brees 74.3% (nuts)
2. Derek Carr 70.4%
3. Ryan Tannehill 70.3%
4. Jimmy Garoppolo 69.1%
5. Kirk Cousins 69.1%
... ...
31. Baker Mayfield 59.4%
  • Now, let's analyze this a bit. First of all, one of these guys is not like the other. Drew Brees. He pretty much consistently shits on everybody with 70%+ and the other top guys that year are usually a full couple of percent lower than him (been that way since like 2017). I'm not sure if it will be the same this year, but he's adapted with his age to continue to make even shorter, and more sure-fire throws. Brees is great.
  • Second of all, look at the rest of the names, any pattern here? These are all guys that are largely asked to do less, to varying degrees, than most QB's. They also have good run games. Carr has Jacobs with Gruden's offense, Tannehill with the Hulk in the backfield, us with Mostert and the Island of Misfit Toys, and Cousins with the Chef. Now, having the highest completion percentage doesn't necessarily mean they're the best QB (Jackson was #9, Mahomes was #11) but it is important.
  • Third of all, I would be willing to bet several burritos that Jimmy will not reach his 2019 completion percentage again in his career. His passing mechanics are regressing (or not improving, if you want to word it slightly less harshly) and his footwork especially is alarming, although you could indicate that he's not confident in his line, but it would also be slightly worrisome to say that he can't be trusted to make a mechanically sound pass if the line isn't perfect, so either way you look at it the mechanics are an issue. I'm willing to give him a pass on this until he at least gets a 2nd string Center back, though. It is frustrating though because he allegedly was improving in training camp, then we all saw the Cardinals game. Still, I'll give it a pass for now.
  • Lastly as it relates to this list, and I will yell it out for the people in the back: THE QB OF THE 49ERS UNDER KYLE SHANAHAN SHOULD BE AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. Almost without compromise. This relates back to what a QB is asked to do here. Jimmy had some of the lowest "Average Intended Yards" of any QB in the league last season. I just thought that this thread by wafflehauss was pretty neat from Week 1 last season, because not much changed. To be clear, I'm not really ripping Jimmy here, I'm just trying to illustrate that we aren't pushing this guy to some unrealistic standards or anything. The starting QB job in SF is physically easier than most places, and there are a lot of advanced metrics that point to that. The completion percentage should always be nuts. With Jimmy's mechanical issues seemingly not improving, and the interior of our line not improving, his accuracy will continue to get worse and worse because he is not much of an improv guy and he definitely "feels" pressure. 3:10 here. His scrambling is... not natural and whether or not you want to blame that on his ACL that's fine, but regardless he resorts to completely fuckified tactics once the pocket gets a little dirty.
Other Options - Part 2 Continued:
Now, lets look at Baker's most recent game and analyze some of the problems there. Highlight link.
Timestamps:
  • 2:20 – beautiful roll out and a laser to Landry with a great covered catch.
  • 2:59 – despite him seeming to trip on the dropback, Baker - frequently shows off a nice touch pass that he has. This one is wide open and “easy”, but he does it a lot. He really has a great ability to “drop” the ball into the receivers hands, especially on out routes.
  • 3:50 – this is a routine pass for him, and one that would be expected of him a lot on a team like ours. You could argue that there is some wasted movement in the dropback here, but I'd rather see a little waste than have him throw off the back foot whenever it isn’t necessary. He delivers the pass in stride. Don't misunderstand me here, this is not a remarkable throw or anything, I am merely pointing out that he performs the intricacies to success in our offense well.
  • 3:59 – off balance, but manages to set and deliver a ball with higher velocity than Jimmy is capable of. Here's proof of that. Baker has a cannon. Jimmy is not bad in this category, but Baker is in the top tier. I was slightly impressed by this one.
  • 5:44 – this is something I was gonna highlight further, but this is a great example of it. Baker has a great, stealthy handoff. This is something that helps sell your play action pass (which I'll get into in a second), but Chubb doesn’t even try to sell it and immediately puts his hands back up, but this isn’t something the secondary can see and therefore doesn’t matter too much as this isn’t a super long developing route. Baker shoots and throws a great pass into the small soft spot of the secondary near the numbers.
  • 5:55 – cool touch here by Baker despite the foot placement, and Njoku makes a great catch. I can’t tell if Young got to him and forced him a couple feet away from his desired trajectory or not in the slight time we can’t see on camera. If not, Baker could’ve placed this a lot better.
  • 6:12 – there is something wrong with Beckham to be dropping a crucial pass like this on 3rd down. He has even said himself that Baker’s velocity is an issue for him, but he didn’t even rocket this pass. 3 receptions for 10 targets in this game, I really hate the way they’re trying to force feed him. This is not an indictment against him specifically either as some of the passes Baker threw him were dogshit, I just don’t think he’s well used in this way for the Browns and these sorts of drops specifically aren’t Baker’s fault.
  • 7:34 – this, though, is entirely Baker’s fault. Ball wobbles a bit and he stared down Beckham through the whole route and gets the ball smacked down by one of the best in the game. This is part of what I mean by "Baker and OBJ's toxic relationship". Baker was honestly better without OBJ's stardom and was much better at spreading the ball around when it was him, Landry, and some decent receivers all around.
  • 8:26 – say what you want about this pass, but I liked that Baker thought “I can beat 36 right over his head”. I like throwing to your best receiver on 3rd and 7 WAY BETTER than checking down and getting 4 yards instead. His demeanor feeds into him making “gunslinger” (I know I hate it too) throws like this frequently.
  • 8:38 – he does it again here. Yeah, the Ravens are up 25 but their starting secondary is still on the field here, which is one of the best in the league. I like the soft spot throws here, and his arm allows him to do it.
  • 10:15 – he loads it up and misses Beckham here, should’ve been a score. I think all the purple scared him. A tiny display of his arm strength, though.
So, just a quick overview of that game. The Ravens are amazing and the Browns suck. This is known. I didn't watch the all-22, but I watched the game. Baker makes some pretty big mistakes and some pretty bad throws in it. I am willing to bet Shanahan could turn him into a star, though. Kevin Stefanski is... not in Kyle's stratosphere as a Head Coach or Playcaller, in my opinion.
Now, one other thing I wanted to point out is Baker's massive strength in play action, as this site shows, Mayfield's passer rating was 36.8 points better on pass attempts involving play action.
It continues with some neat numbers in reference to last season. “From Weeks 1-8, the Browns offense used play-action on only 26.6% of Mayfield’s dropbacks, which was 15th in the league. The Browns were 2-5 over the time period and struggled immensely on the offensive side of the ball. In contrast, from Weeks 9-12, the Browns offense has utilized play-action on 40.0% of Mayfield’s dropbacks, which is the most in the league, with a corresponding 3-1 record. Mayfield has posted the following statistics and ranks using the strategy:
  • 44 completions on 60 attempts (most)
  • 574 passing yards (most)
  • 4 touchdowns (T-2nd)
  • 15.2 completion percentage differential (8th)
  • 125.3 passer rating (9th)
Compare that to the 60% of dropbacks where play-action was not deployed over the same time frame:
  • 50 completions on 86 attempts (T-17th most)
  • 457 passing yards (23rd)
  • 4 touchdowns (T-8th)
  • 83.3 passer rating (17th)”
So, what's my overall point here? I ultimately didn't want to answer my take on the future of this team at the QB position with "LeTs JuSt GeT LaWrEnCe LoL" or something overly-homerish about Jimmy. I tried to think of a more legitimate and realistic answer, with a scenario that involves Jimmy and two that don't.
In conclusion, my point is this: I believe Baker Mayfield, at about 3.5 years younger than Jimmy G, could be his replacement, at a lower cost, for marginally to seriously improved production from the QB position on this team. I still believe Mayfield has star potential. I do not believe Jimmy does. I understand that many fans on /nfl and /browns believe he's a total bust, but I do not. He is nowhere near perfect, but I legitimately think he could be plugged into this exact offense (with a down year, just like Jimmy and Matt had) with more success than Jimmy will provide. Shanahan will be his new Lincoln Riley and revive him to great heights. I think the Niners should acquire him and cut bait on Jimmy if the opportunity were to present itself because the Browns decided that "Lose for Lawrence" is the better option than Mayfield.
  • I think Baker has a better arm than Jimmy.
  • I think Baker is smart enough to figure our offense out.
  • I think Baker can make the short and intermediate throws required more consistently than Jimmy.
  • I think Baker can perform even better than Jimmy in our already extremely prominent overall usage of the play action pass.
  • I think Baker can scramble a bit more naturally than Jimmy in a wonky pocket.
  • I think Baker is more capable of big plays that break the game open.
  • I think Baker can provide the moxie on offense that this team doesn't have when Deebo or Kittle aren't on the field (but regardless, having it come from your defacto leader is invaluable).
  • I think the 49ers could win a Super Bowl BECAUSE of Baker Mayfield, not in spite of him.
Now, you may downvote, but I hope instead you contribute with something substantial. Thank you for your time.
Edit: Spelling mistakes.
submitted by Realkers to 49ers [link] [comments]

Finally, are Milan starting to figure it out?

For the past few years, Milan seemed like a ageing, wheezing giant; grasping for breath, swinging wildly for the one punch knock out, with no direction or plan. They were more intent on getting 'names' and exciting fans rather than constructing sensibly. Predictably, they've wasted quite a lot of money trying that. Now, there seems to be a change in direction, all for the better.

Change in transfer direction :-
In years past, they'd swing for big names (Bonucci, Bacca or Higuain) in the hope that they'd make them relevant again. Or they'd bring in wonder kids from other countries (Andre Silva, Paqueta, Gomez) in the hope that they'd be the next flag at Milan. A ton of money was lost trying these various experiments, with little success. This time, the modus operand is different. It's mostly Serie A guys (Rebic, Bennacer, Tonali) who'll arrive within reasonable prices, guys who wouldn't need time to settle in the country or league.
They're even mixing the influx of youth with some mature heads, but sensibly. Zlatan's leadership is worth paying for, and while Thiago Silva would've added a lot, his contract demands were deemed outside their reach. Kjaer reminds me of the time JuBe took a struggling and old Barzagli, then turned him into a legend.

Using the 'human resources' :-
Due to internal politics, they kept a legend like Maldini out of their club, which, quite frankly, was astounding to me. He's a wealth of resources, relations formed all over the country over a 20 year playing career. Just his enigma will mean a ton of players would want to join in. Inter made a masterstroke by appointing Zanetti to the Vice Presidency. Fans, management, every know he will first have the interest of the club at heart, and things like politics, power & personal gain will be ignored. Same goes for Maldini at Milan, but their previous management was content on slandering his name, or only offering him a placeholder title and role. That's like having a Ferrari and using it as a spare car to get groceries.
There also seems to be a good sensible direction to the club. There seems some genuine idea and thought to their transfers. They took a flier on Theo from Real, and it's paid of handsomely. He looked like a distant second to his brother, but is now shining. Now, they want to replicate that hit with Diaz, also from Real. I'm sure Theo must've given some complimentary words for him. Similarly, for right back, Aurier seems (or seemed) like a good bet. I saw him in the World Cup with Ivory Coast, and he seemed like a great talent. Now, he's only been able to show it in spurts, and carries a reputation of being a hot head. I'm sure Zlatan must've given assurances over both his temperament and talent, having seen it first hand in training at PSG.

Creative payments for transfers :-
The Tonali transfer is actually genius, if you think about it. A 10m loan means they'll keep most of thir this season budget intact for other targets. Thanks to the FFP, an obligation would be counted against this season's budget the minute the conditions get fulfilled. Option means they can push that hit into next season. The clauses, which must've been easy to attain (Champions League qualification, number of appearances etc.), would again not be counted against the FFP initially. i.e.- 10m immediate, 10m next season, 10m at various points afterwards. The financial hit is greatly reduced.
Now I read that they're trying the same structure to get Milenkovic from Fiorentina. i.e.- expensive paid loan, similar fee, heavy bonuses. There's little negative in this for the club. This is a sensible and long term approach for the club. Rather than spending in one window, with no mind to chemistry and continuity, then praying that they get Chamipions League football, they're spreading their finances, structuring with long term views.

Issues to concentrate on next
All is not hunky dory though. There's still some issues to iron out. I'm not convinced about Pioli. While he's clearly getting everyone to row in the same direction, most of his upturn came after the break. It's still to be seen if he can replicate that form in a normal, regular season; not just when other teams are struggling for form and fitness. If they do stutter, they need to hire a coach who'll be able to guide them ably. Someone who knows the league. Spalletti is the easy option here, and De Zerbi is another (though I'm not sure how open Milan and Maldini will be to taking another flier after having seen Giampaolo come apart at the seams instantly) idea. I doubt Allegri will hop on.
Also, I dislike the fact that they don't spend on youth talents. Their Primavera team actually got relegated. When it comes to FFP, the spending on youth teams is overlooked. There's a clear strategy to follow here. i.e.- buy young players on the cheap, then inflate their value while selling to smaller clubs, probably as pieces for better, more ready players. They could even retain some control (buy back, first option) over the departing kids. Inter got out of their FFP predicament precisely by making use of this loophole. Milan seem to ignore it, for some reason.
While things seemed all 'doom n gloom' before the break, the break has put a shine on the situation. All in all, they seem on solid footing, but there's a lot of work to be done still.
submitted by vik1980 to Calcio [link] [comments]

Welcome to Gettysburg (Day Three)

Day One Here
Day Two Here
JULY 3RD
A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
The night fighting on Culp’s Hill was slow and torturous. The Confederate assault from Johnson’s division had to cross rough terrain and a river before it even started going uphill, which at night was an incredibly miserable task even without Union troops firing at them. Union skirmishers played hell with their progress, and after brushing them aside, Johnson bumped into a defensive line that his Union counterpart Geary had spent all day perfecting.
As mentioned yesterday, their only success was to grab tiny footholds on the Union side of Rock Creek, which ran between the two hills.
As the fighting died away and the bone weary soldiers on both sides crashed asleep hard, Lee plotted. He smelled blood; on July 1st, they’d carved up the Union men good and drove them from the field. Yesterday, on the Union left, they’d wrecked a Union corps under Sickles, smashed into the Union center and almost broke it (damn those blue belly reinforcements showing up in the knick of time), and even gained a toehold on the Union right. The men’s morale was high. Lee decided to repeat yesterday’s plan, but better executed. Simultaneous attacks on both flanks should overwhelm them, and J.E.B. Stuart could make it up to all of them by chasing down the shattered Army of the Potomac to scoop up all the heavy guns and supplies and wounded that could not retreat rapidly. To which end, Lee sent Stuart on a super wide flanking attack around the Union right so as to be in position to strike at the right moment. Lee generated the orders in written form and sent them off by messenger to his corps commanders.
Meanwhile, Meade had another war council face to face with his generals. They decided to stand pat, to neither attack the Confederate positions nor retreat back towards Washington. The terrain massively favored them and Lee would (more likely than not) walk into their gunsights again.
A defensive stance, however, doesn’t mean pure passivity. A few hours after the Confederate assault petered out and Lee’s decision was made, the Union started a counterattack on a small scale.
————————————————————————
DAWN
At dawn, the Union right flared up. Fresh troops had marched in overnight and Meade wanted his damn hill back. The extreme end of the Confederate left flank (which is of course opposite the Union right) found itself getting hammered in front of Culp’s Hill by artillery from the Baltimore Pike. Clearly, such a bombardment was meant to be followed up with an assault to retake the bridgehead.
Johnson, having received his orders from Lee and being under the impression that Longstreet was attacking in tandem a mile and a half away on the other side of the hills, attacked Culp’s Hill again before the Union could attack him first. The plan was what the plan was; pressure here, successful or not, was needed for someone to break through somewhere. But Longstreet wasn’t attacking. Later on, Longstreet would claim to have never received the order to advance, but the sources I have assert this is untrue- he received the order, he just didn’t do anything about it. Instead of spending the night getting his troops on line to attack Little Round Top and the southern chunk of Cemetery Ridge, he just sat tight and did nothing. Oceans of ink have been spilled over the years speculating as to why. The Lost Cause narrative asserts that Longstreet was a Yankee-loving turncoat who deliberately sabotaged Lee’s plan and lost the battle on purpose. Others think that Longstreet's conviction that attacking here was insane and that they should fall back and look for battle somewhere else on more favorable terms had been strengthened by the results of July 2nd, and as such was dragging his heels trying to not attack again. Or maybe it was just the general haze of Civil War era incompetence taking its toll again.
————————————————————————
MORNING
As Johnson’s men gamely attacked the untakeable Culp’s Hill and were cut down by accurate rifle fire and close range cannon fire, Lee hunted down Longstreet to demand an explanation for his borderline insubordinate refusal to attack.
Longstreet pitched his idea again. He’d spent all night scouting the Union line. The enemy line was unbreakable. They shouldn’t try to attack them here. They should slip around the Union left, south of Big Round Top, to threaten the Union supply lines. Do that, they would make the Union respond to them, fight them on more equal terms. That’s the plan Longstreet had been preparing for all night, not a suicidal-
Lee cut him off with a raised fist. There would be no tricky maneuver around the flank. They would assault the Union line under the present conditions.
To the north, Johnson was still getting his teeth kicked in. Lee sent orders to call off the assault, but it would take a while for the messenger to get there and for Johnson to get word to his brigades to stand down and fall back. Meanwhile, across the way on Cemetery Ridge, Meade stalked his line, double checking all the positions for any confusions or errors to correct, emitting confidence and good cheer.
Lee scoped out the Union center personally, being in the area anyway. His complex double flanking maneuver wasn't working. A new plan was needed.
Lee figured that Meade had reinforced Little Round Top and the surrounding area yesterday, and that those troops hadn’t gone anywhere since. The Union defense at Culp’s Hill has been similarly fierce that morning, fierce enough to threaten Johnson with an offensive. If both flanks were strong... the center must be weak. Yesterday, a small Confederate brigade had crossed the Emmitsburg road under fire and smashed into the Union line on Cemetery Ridge, just south of Cemetery Hill. They had straight up routed the enemy- had there been more men available to back them up and follow through, that small brigade might have won the battle outright instead of being pushed back as they’d been.
Lee was satisfied. The Union center was brittle, undermanned, and the best point to hit it was at that same place.
Meanwhile, J.E.B. Stuart was stepping off on his flanking ride.
————————————————————————
LATE MORNING
Johnson’s last big push up Culp’s Hill was heroic. By that time, all of them knew how strong the Union position was. They surely walked into this with their eyes open.
A three brigade front set up for a shock attack, backed up by four more to exploit the hoped-for opening. Among them was the famous Stonewall Brigade, Jackson's old unit that he’d raised up and trained personally before being tapped for higher command. The Stonewall Brigade was, arguably, the elite of the Confederate army. The year before, they’d outmaneuvered and outfought a Union stab at Richmond coming through the Shenandoah valley.
The charge was cut down and butchered like all the others, and Johnson fell back.
Williams, whose batteries on the Baltimore Pike had kicked things off that morning, got a little overexcited and counterattacked without orders. His orders to attack the Confederate flank left his subordinates sickened with dread, but were obeyed nonetheless. Once the Union counterattack was butchered in retaliation by the entrenched Confederates, combat on the Union right ceased after six straight hours of gory, hopeless combat.
Meanwhile, Confederate artillery under the command of Colonel Alexander set itself up on a mile wide front, all carefully sited and positioned both for protection and for good lines of sight on the Union center. A brief but fierce artillery duel kicked off as each side tried to knock out the other’s firing points before the big moment, but was soon cut off to preserve ammo.
Lee mustered his available forces, bringing in troops that were only now straggling in and combining them with some units that had fought the day before. It was a haphazard and frankly half-assed piece of staff work- veteran units who hadn’t fought at all in the last two days were left in reserve, while exhausted troops who’d already suffered 50% casualties were included. Many of the brigades who were to charge Cemetery Ridge had green colonels in charge because their generals had been killed or wounded the day before. The gap between the northern half of the assaulting force and the southern half was four football fields long, and nobody seemed to notice or care. The division commander to lead the north side of the assault, General Pettigrew, was selected not for any rational consideration or advantage, but because he happened to be standing nearby when the decision was being made. Longstreet, who by this point wanted nothing to do with any of it, was placed in overall command. It took a few hours to organize this clusterfuck into something resembling a coherent unit- three divisions spread over a mile wide front, with Pickett on the left, Pettigrew on the right, and Trimble behind them to provide some depth to the big push.
There is no particularly good reason why the upcoming Pickett’s Charge is known as “Pickett’s Charge”. Pickett was not actually in charge of it, or even in charge of most of it. He was a division commander who had never seen proper combat before- in every battle since 1861, his unit had been held in reserve or absent. This was to be his first chance to get in this war. I suspect it’s known as Pickett’s Charge because he and his men were Virginians, and it was fellow Virginians who would pour over the battle to find out why the wrong side won. Accordingly, they conceived of it as being a Virginian affair, overshadowing the Tennesseans, Alabamans, North Carolinians, and Mississippians who formed the other two-thirds of the attack.
I was surprised to learn that we have a hard time figuring out how many men were actually involved in Pickett’s Charge (this being a basic narrative history, I am sticking with the common name for it despite the inaccuracy); I attribute this to the confusion involved in organizing it. I’ve heard as low as 12,500 men and as high as 15,000. I’m going with 14,000 men because it’s a nice even number that is approximately midway between the upper and lower limit, so don’t mistake my choice as being accurate or even evidence-based per se. Regardless, the agreed upon number of Union defenders is 6,500. The Confederates would outnumber the Union by about 2-1 or greater at the point of contact.
These days, a lot of people show up at the battlefield and stare out from Cemetery Ridge at Spangler Woods where Pettigrew would have emerged from (or stand in Spangler’s Woods and stare out at Cemetery Ridge, same difference) and wonder what the hell was going through Lee’s head. The ground there is now flat and devoid of cover, the exact kind of terrain that time and time again had proven to be a death sentence for infantry assaults. The answer is that the ground changed between 1863 and today. Just before World War One ended in 1918, the field over which Pickett charged was artificially flattened for tank training. Before that, it was the kind of rolling terrain that Buford’s skirmishers had exploited on day one- an observer from a distance would see the troops disappear and reappear as they went over and down each gentle slope. The 14,000 attackers would have some cover as they advanced- not perfect terrain to keep immune from artillery and bullets, but not explicit suicide either.
————————————————————————
EARLY AFTERNOON
By 1 PM, Alexander had his guns set up the way he liked them. What followed at his command was the single largest coordinated artillery mission that the Western Hemisphere had ever seen.
In the south, cannons at the Peach Orchard suppressed the Union firing point on Little Round Top. All along Seminary Ridge from whence the charge would spring, cannons lined up practically wheel to wheel for a mile, aimed at wrecking Cemetery Ridge.
Longstreet was in what you might call a high stress kind of mood. He was having second, third, fourth, and fifth thoughts about attacking, but orders were orders and he was in charge of this damned charge. As the guns began their bombardment, Longstreet did something that frankly goes beyond the pale of any command decision I’ve ever heard of. The film Gettysburg and the novel it’s based on cast Longstreet in a very sympathetic light, as a kind of deliberate pushback against the reductive myth that Longstreet was personally responsible for losing the battle and by extension the war, leaving Lee off the hook to stay firmly in the saintly canon of the Lost Cause. But here, Longstreet indisputably abdicates any pretense of the responsibility of command.
He fired an order off to Colonel Alexander, telling him:
If the artillery fire does not have the effect to drive off the enemy, or greatly demoralize him, so as to make our effort pretty certain, I would prefer that you should not advise General Pickett to make the charge. I shall . . . expect you to let General Pickett know when the moment offers.
Allow me to reiterate in case you were reading this on autopilot. Longstreet, the man in charge of the whole offensive, was telling a lowly artillery colonel that the decision when and if to attack was on him and no one else.
Alexander was a subject matter expert on artillery and not infantry for a reason. This order hit him from out of left field. He wrote back for clarification, and the professional in him mentioned that since the plan is to use every single artillery shell they can spare, if there is any alternative plan to charging Cemetery Hill at the end of the bombardment then they’d better tell him before he runs out of ammo.
And Longstreet reiterated his first order. He told Alexander to advise General Pickett whether or not to attack. And with that on his shoulders, Alexander gave the order to open fire.
All told, somewhere between 150 and 170 guns opened up at the same moment. The 75 Union cannons they had on hand briefly engaged in counter-battery fire, before being ordered to go quiet and save ammunition for the infantry assault to come. For about an hour, the Union troops just had to sit still and take what the Rebel had to give them.
What Lee was doing was classic Napoleonic tactics. Massing artillery against the weakest point on the enemy line was literally by the book soldiering. The problem, as was noted here before, was that technology had changed. Napoleonic could bring his cannon close to the frontline with the reasonable expectation that they wouldn’t be shot, since smoothbore muskets are basically harmless from 200 yards away. But that was no longer the case. The long stand off distance that the enemy rifles dictated meant that the cannonfire was proportionally less accurate and devastating. The smoke covering the field concealed the truth from the Confederates- their artillery fire was off. Most of the shells flew high overhead and exploded behind Cemetery Ridge. Some shells hit the target area- Union men did die screaming by the score. But the positions on Cemetery Hill were only lightly damaged, and the units manning them were intact and cohesive. Most of the damage done was to the rear echelon types- surgeons, supply wagoneers, staff officers, that kind of thing. Such men were massacred as the shells aimed at men a quarter mile away arced over and found marks elsewhere. Meade, of course, was on hand, showing a brave face and cracking some jokes about a similar moment in the Mexican-American War 15 years back.
Throughout the hour, as his line endured the steel hailstorm, Meade’s engineer mind was working. He’d already suspected that Lee was about to hit his center- he’d predicted as much the night before- and now the shot placements confirmed it. He was already ordering troops into position, getting ready to reinforce the line on Cemetery Ridge if needed. He hedged his bets, putting them in a position to relieve Cemetery Hill as well, just in case. Little Round Top became somewhat less defended as men marched out, using the high ground to mask their redeployment.
Irresponsible and insubordinate though Longstreet was at that moment, he was right. Lee’s improvised plan had already failed, though it hadn’t happened yet. Pickett’s Charge wasn’t going to slam into a fragmented and demoralized Union line. It was heading into a mile long, mile wide kill zone backed up by a defence in depth.
————————————————————————
Pickett’s Charge
Confederates were getting mangled before the charge even started. Union artillery fire reached out and touched out them in Spangler’s Woods, rolling solid iron shot and explosive shells into their huddled ranks.
Longstreet rode the line, exposing himself to the artillery fire to set an example of courage. The men didn’t need such an example- or rather, they’ve seen such examples in a dozen battles over the last two years and have already learned valor as a second language- but there’s something to be said for showing the groundpounders that their boss is in the wrong end of the shooting gallery the same way that they are.
Just before 2 p.m., Alexander decided if it’s gonna happen, it’d have to be now. He needed at least a small reserve of shells to function after the battle and he’s running out fast. He dashed off a note to Pickett telling him to step off. In keeping with the standard of Confederate comms thus far, Pickett then took Alexander’s note to Longstreet in person for confirmation, because nobody had told him that Longstreet was trying to dodge the responsibility of command.
Longstreet was desperate for an out, and in one crazed leap of illogic he thought he found one. Alexander was low on shells, with only a tiny reserve of ammunition left over for self-defense! Longstreet issued orders to halt in place and delay some more, so that they could replenish their ammo chests from their strategic reserves.
I really feel for Alexander, man. I've had bosses like that too. Alexander had to break the news to Longstreet that there was no strategic reserve, he already told him, they were shooting every round they got. Longstreet was shocked- apparently nobody on Lee's staff had been paying attention to how fast they'd been burning through their artillery rounds. (Meade's staff paid attention to such banal details- that's why they now had tons of ammunition standing by their guns on Cemetery Ridge, patiently waiting for something valuable to shoot at). Even then, Longstreet couldn’t bring himself to actually say the words to order the attack. He just nodded, mute and numb.
At 2 p.m., the attack started. 14,000 men rose up and walked forward, a giant line of infantry one mile across. In lieu of specific instructions about where they were going and how to get there, the order was to aim for a copse of trees on the objective- an easy visual marker that was easy to remember. As long as you kept the trees in sight and kept moving forward, you were right.
(Miles and miles away, J.E.B. Stuart’s flanking maneuver was being countered by an equal force of Union cavalry. Their clash had one of the few cavalry-on-cavalry battles of the Civil War; fun fact, this was one of the fights that put Custer’s career on the map, until getting killed off by the Cheyenne at Little Big Horn 13 years later. The battle was intense, but a draw; Stuart couldn’t break through. Even if Pickett’s Charge worked, there’d have been no way to follow up and finish Meade off for good. Lee’s plan was well and truly fucked.)
Things immediately stopped being clean and neat, as per the usual. The center of Pickett’s Charge sprang up and walked before the flanks did, but the brigades on the south and the north of them set off late, leading to a kind of droopy effect where the center bulged out unsupported.
When the Union soldiers manning Cemetery Ridge saw the Confederate advance begin, they began to chant “Fredericksburg! Fredericksburg! Fredericksburg!” Just a little “fuck you” from one set of veterans to another; at Fredericksburg eight months before, Union General Burnside had ordered several such suicidal attacks on prepared defenses which the Confederates had gleefully blasted into chunky salsa.
70 odd guns opened up on them all. To give a sense of the skill involved, the artilleryman in charge of the Union guns, Colonel Hunt, had written the book on artillery- literally, because his work Instructions for Field Artillery was the go-to manual for the US Army- and at West Point had personally taught most of the Confederate artillery officers across the way everything they knew about the big guns. One must not mistake this as just plopping down the cannons and pointing them in the right direction. Hunt was an artist with his weapon systems, and the pattern of explosions that snaked into the advancing infantry had been painstakingly designed by a master craftsman.
At the distance of a mile, it was iron shot and shell that carved bloody little holes into the line. The Confederates took the beating, closed ranks, and pushed on. On the south, the cannons on Little Round Top delivered particularly hideous effects from the flank, driving their line into disorder; some brigades cut in front of other brigades, and what should have been a line became a muddled column. On the north, a brigade under General Brockenbrough bumped into a small detachment of 160 Union men who were jutting out north of the road. The Union men fired a small but devastating volley that raked them from the side and broke their nerves. Brockenbrough’s men ran- the first to break, but not the last.
Similar small detachments of skirmishers dotted No Man’s Land between the armies. Between their vicious little ambushes and the massive shock of massed artillery, Pickett’s Charge slowed down. Slowing down just left them in the kill zone for that much longer.
When Pickett’s Charge reached the Emmitsburg Road, they were further delayed by the stiff fencing that lined it. As they clambered over it, Union infantry opened fire at long range. The casualties skyrocketed as the Confederate line absorbed the fire. If you want to know what it was like under fire, picture the start of a rainstorm. The water droplets go taptaptap tap taptaptap taptaptaptaptap taptaptaptaptap taptap taptaptaptaptaptap taptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptap... that's how the survivors described the musketry that pelted the fence they were trying to climb over. One small contingent of Davis’ brigade (you recall how roughly they were manhandled on July the 1st) accidentally got ahead of everybody else and found itself standing right in front of the Union line all alone. The guys closest to the Union defenses surrendered as one; the rest got shot up bad and ran for their lives.
Pickett’s Charge was pure chaos by then- their mile wide front that had surged forth from Spangler’s Wood had shrunk down to about a half mile, partly from taking casualties, partly from brigades running away after the shock of massed fire, and partly from bridges shifting north away from flanking fire from their right side.
From the fence line on the Emmitsburg to the stone wall that protected the Union defense was about two hundred yards. This is a long shot for a rifle, especially under pressure- that’s the whole point to volley fire, so that everybody shooting at once will create a sort of probability cloud of danger even at long range. Some Confederates, desperate to hit back after enduring hell, shot anyway. Their fire was ineffective. It is a very, very short shot for an artillery piece, even under pressure. A battery of cannons placed just behind the Union line switched to canister and blasted massive bloody holes in the bunched up Confederates.
A lot of Confederates huddled up behind the fencing and stayed put. It is marginally safer than moving two feet forward past the wooden railings, and the spirit had been knocked out of them by the mile long charge and the mile long shooting gallery they’d been subjected to. The left side of the attack had been stopped dead and turned back; the right side pushed on, disregarding any thought but closing distance. 1,500 men blitzed those last 200 yards to the stone wall
Scores of them died from rifle fire as the cannons reloaded.
The surviving Confederates, running on pure adrenaline, reached the stone wall at a place called the Bloody Angle. The Union line was disjointed, with the Northern section slightly back from the southern section. The Angle was the little joint that connected the two walls; it was also right by the copse of trees that everybody was racing towards.
A fierce firefight broke out once the Confederates reached the wall. Most of them stayed behind the wall; like their buddies to the west still behind the fence on the Emmitsburg pike, they’d finally found a few square feet that was sorta kinda safe, and every instinct they had in their brains screamed at them to stay there. The Union troops were outnumbered at the point of impact, and backed off in good order.
Reserve regiments were already marching up to plug the gap that didn’t exist yet. Units north and south of the Bloody Angle shifted in place to fire at the beachhead. Behind the Confederates on the Angle, there was a small ocean of blood on the ground and a mile long procession of silent, mangled dead and writhing, screaming wounded... but no follow on reinforcements to help exploit the breakthrough.
General Armistead, the only Confederate General there still on his feet, still believed in all that chivalrous Walter Scott romantic nonsense, still thought that raw valor and heart could somehow beat a superior enemy. He stuck his hat on his sword as a makeshift battle flag and rallied his men to leave the safety of the Bloody Angle and close distance.
Just as the pitifully few Confederates got on the east side of the wall, the cannons shot canister again and puked metal death all over them. After shooting, the artillerymen ran back to safety before the rebels could stagger up to them.
Hundreds of men surged forward by inertia; hundreds out of the 14,000 that they’d started with. They drove off the understrength Union regiments with the bayonet and capture those hated big guns, turning them around to use against the inevitable counterattack. This failed; there was no more ammo left for the guns. Colonel Hunt had measured out the number of rounds needed for the job at hand with the utmost precision.
The counterattack was messy and bloody for everybody involved, for the brawl saw everything available used as a weapon- bullets, bayonets, rifle butts, pistols, knives, rocks, boot heels, bare hands. But the Confederates all just dissolved after a short while. Nobody ordered a retreat; nobody was alive and of sufficient rank to order a retreat. Thousands just plopped down where they stood and waited for Union men to come out and collect them. They were too numb and exhausted to walk anymore. Others streamed back to safety in ones and twos.
For every Confederate who died, four more were maimed and crippled. For every wounded man, another was taken prisoner. It was an unmitigated disaster for the Confederate cause, and correspondingly it was a triumph of humanity as the stalwart defenders of the slave plantations died in droves. Remember, like I said, we’re rooting for the Union.
The battle wasn’t over, not really. Not was the campaign. But it certainly was decided.
————————————————————————
RIGHT SO
Interestingly, at first it was kind of ambiguous who won.
Meade got fired from the job after Lee got the Army of Northern Virginia home intact. Lincoln was seething that Meade hadn’t shown some aggression and had failed to destroy Lee’s army as he had been ordered. Meade, however, didn’t have much of an army at that point, just a diverse collection of units that had suffered 50% casualties and were in no condition to do anything. Moreover, there had been no way to bring the retreating Lee to battle without taking a lot of risks that might see all the good done at Gettysburg undone. Still though. Meade was out, and Grant, riding high after his conquest of Vicksburg, was in. Lee initially claimed victory in the Richmond papers, and it was hard to gainsay him at first. He had indisputably invaded north and thrashed the living shit out of the Army of the Potomac so bad that they could not invade again in 1863, which was indeed partly the point of the strategy.
But soon the facts of life made themselves clear. Lee had holes in his ranks that simply could not be filled anymore. Southerners didn’t want to die in a losing war, and coercing in them into the ranks through State violence only gave him shitty recruits who would desert the second they were put on guard duty. In contrast, tens of thousands of men poured into training depots across the nation, all armed and clothed and fed by the grandest industrial base in the world. Thousands of experienced veterans re-upped their contracts in Gettysberg’s wake to become these new recruits’ NCOs and commanding officers. Lee has gone north to break the will of the Union to continue the fight. Gettysburg had, if anything, demoralized the Confederacy and reinvigorated the Union instead. I do not believe that Gettysburg started this trend, but I do think it sped it up significantly. Patterns that might have taken a year to come to fruition instead took months.
Gettysburg, in my opinion, is significant not because of any great gains or losses on the material level, but because of its effects on the minds of voters and soldiers and politicians in the North and the South. To crib C. S. Lewis really quick, what matters was not whether a given action would take a specific hill, or seize a certain road; what matters is whether a given action pushes people to either dig their heels in and seek victory at any personal cost, or whether it pushes them to back down and seek a safer compromise. Gettysburg pushed all of the American people in the directions they were already heading down, that’s all. Any conclusion beyond that is on shaky ground, I feel.
Having said that, I shall now irrationally contradict myself; Gettysburg can also act as a Rorschach test with symbols and images and stories in lieu of the ink blots. Like I said, it’s a place of religious significance to me to an extent far beyond appreciation for its historic value.
I just don’t think it’s possible for that many people to die in such a short period of time, in so compact an area, and with such blunt contempt for the foreseen probability of violent death, and not leave an indelible and ineffable mark on the land itself. Like, if humanity went extinct and Earth got colonized by Betelgeusians a hundred years after, I am certain that the aliens would somehow feel a chill in their exoskeletons when they walk over the soft leaves and through the bare trees of Herbst Wood, or tromp around the south side of Little Round Top, or poke about on the steep slope of Culp's Hill, or splash across the Plum River in the Valley of Death.
I’m not saying I’m right, of course. But I am saying how I feel.
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