Ultimate Betting Guide To Win On The Grand National 2020
Ultimate Betting Guide To Win On The Grand National 2020
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Grand National 2021 - Runners and Riders Betting Odds
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Oscars 2021: An inside look (like, really inside) to 50 possible contenders in the next awards race
Another Oscar ceremony happened, and we got our fair share of joy and disappointment. After Parasite surprised the world and took Best Picture, it seems like the game has changed for the awards race, now that non-English speaking films can actually fight and be recognized as well as classics as… Green Book. The Oscar race is still full of pain and glory, and even though the year has barely started, we have a bunch of movies that are fighting for air. And here’s 50 of them. Yes, I had some free time in my hands and this is a cool hobby, so I took the liberty to introduce most of the movies that will have Film Twitter entertained for the following 12 months. I say most, because there are always contenders who come out of nowhere later in the year, so this is the starter set. Here we go. -Annette: Since Parasite’s road to the Oscars started at Cannes, it seems fair to talk about a movie that is circling a premiere in the world stage that is set in France. After delivering weird, indie classics like Mauvais Sang and Holy Motors (yes, the kind of movies that make you seem like a snob when you recommend them to people), Leos Carax is making his first movie spoken in the English language… and it has a musical screenplay written by the cult rock duo of Sparks. Recently robbed Adam Driver and previous Oscar winner Marion Cotillard sing in this tale of a stand-up comedian and a famous soprano singer who rise and fall in Los Angeles while their daughter is born with a special gift. It seems like a wild bet, but we already know that Carax is a master with musical moments, so this is one of the most intriguing question marks of the year. -Ammonite: It’s time to talk narratives. On the one hand, we have Kate Winslet, a known name who hasn’t been very successful in the Oscar race since her Oscar win for The Reader over a decade ago (with the exception being her supporting performance in Steve Jobs, where she had a weird accent). On the other, we have Saoirse Ronan, a star on the rise who keeps collecting Oscar nominations, with 4 nods at the age of 25, including her fresh Best Actress loss for Little Women. What happens if we put them together in a drama set in the coasts of England during the 19th century where both of them fall for each other? That’s gonna be a winning formula if writedirector Francis Lee (who tackled queer romance in his acclaimed debut God’s Own Country) nails the Mary Anning story, and Neon (the distribution company founded three years ago that took Parasite to victory) is betting on it. -Benedetta: We know the Paul Verhoeven story. After isolating himself from Hollywood for over a decade, he took Isabelle Huppert to an Oscar nominated performance with the controversial, sexy, dark and funny thriller Elle. Now, he’s back with another story that perks up the ears, because now he’s covering the life of Benedetta Carlini, a 17th-century lesbian nun who had religious and erotic visions. If you know Paul, you already can tell that this fits into his brand of horniness, and a possible Cannes premiere could tell us if this has something to carry itself to Oscar night. -Blonde: With a short but impactful directorial credits list that takes us from Chopper, to The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford to Killing Them Softly, Andrew Dominik is back with a film about Marilyn Monroe, a woman who has transcended the ideas of fame and stardom, in ways that are glamorous and nightmarish at the same time. After failing to launch with Naomi Watts or Jessica Chastain,the rising Ana de Armas takes the lead in the retelling of Monroe’s troubled life based on Joyce Carol Oates’ novel, which is said to be covered in the screenplay as somewhat of a horror movie. We don’t know what that means yet, but Netflix is gonna push hard for this one, especially considering how the Academy loves throwing awards to stars playing previous stars, and that also can possibly include co-stars Bobby Cannavale and Adrien Brody. -Breaking News in Yuba County: While he hasn’t gone back to the heights of his success achieved by the box office and award success of The Help (a movie that did not age well), Tate Taylor is still enjoying himself economically due to recent thrillers like The Girl on the Train and Ma. For his next movie, he’s made a dramedy that once again reunites him with Oscar winner Allison Janney, where she plays a woman who has to keep appearances and a hidden body when she catches her husband cheating on her, and then he dies of a heart attack. With a cast that also includes Mila Kunis, Regina Hall, Awkwafina, Samira Wiley, Wanda Sykes, Jimmi Simpson and Ellen Barkin, this could be a buzzy title later this year. -C’mon C’mon: You may love or hate whatever Joaquin Phoenix did in Joker, but you can’t deny the benefit of playing the Crown Prince of Crime in an Oscar-winning performance. The blank check that you share with indie directors afterwards. Now that Joaquin’s cultural cachet is on the rise, Mike Mills gets to benefit with this drama that stars Phoenix and Gaby Hoffmann, with him playing an artist left to take care of his precocious young nephew as they forge an unexpected bond over a cross country trip. We only have to wonder if A24 will do better with this movie’s Oscar chances compared to 20th Century Women. -Cherry: After killing half the universe and bringing them back with the highest grossing movie of all time, where do you go? For Joe and Anthony Russo, the answer is “away from the Marvel Cinematic Universe”. The Russo brothers are trying to distance themselves and prove that they have a voice without Kevin Feige behind them, with a crime drama that’s also different than their days when they directed You, Me and Dupree or episodes of Arrested Development and Community. To help them in the journey, they took Tom Holland (who also needs to distance himself from Spider-Man, lest he ends up stuck to the character in the audience’s eyes) to star in a crime drama based on former Army medic Nico Walker’s memoir about his days after Iraq, where the PTSD and an opioid addiction led him to start robbing banks. -Da 5 Bloods: After bouncing back from a slump with the critical and commercial success of BlackKklansman, Spike Lee is cashing a Netflix check to tell the tale of four African American veterans who return to Vietnam to search for their fallen leader and some treasure. With a cast that includes Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Isiah Whitlock Jr, Paul Walter Hauser and Chadwick Boseman, this sounds like an interesting combo, although we still should remember the last time that Spike tried his hand at a war movie, with the dull Miracle at St. Anna. -Dune: If you are on Reddit, you probably know about the new film by movies’ new Messiah, Denis Villeneuve. While the epic sci-fi novel by Frank Herbert is getting a new chance in the multiplexes after that David Lynch movie that was forgotten by many, some are hoping that this will be the beginning of a new franchise (as seen by the release date of December 18, taking the spot of the usual Star Wars opening), and a return to the whole “remember when stuff like Return of the King or Fury Road were nominated for Best Picture?” question. Timothee Chalamet will be riding a lot of hope, and sandworm. -Everybody’s Talking About Jamie: As you start to see, there are several musicals that are gonna be fighting for attention over the next year, and Annette was the first one. Now, we also have this adaptation of the hit West End production, that centers around a gay British teenager who dreams of becoming a drag queen and get his family and schoolmates to accept his sexuality. With a cast that mixes young unknowns, familiar Brits (Sharon Horgan, Sarah Lancashire and my boy Ralph Ineson) and the previously nominated legend that is Richard E. Grant (who is playing a former drag queen named Loco Chanelle), the creative team of the stage musical will jump to the big screen with the help of Fox Searchlight (sorry, just Searchlight), who has clear Oscar hopes with a release date right in the middle of awards heat, on October 23. -Hillbilly Elegy: Even though the Parasite victory gave many people hope for a new Academy that stops recognizing stuff like previous winner Green Book… let’s be honest, the Academy will still look for movies like Green Book. This year, many people are turning their eyes towards Ron Howard’ adaptation of J.D. Vance’s memoir about his low income life in a poor rural community in Ohio, filled with drugs, violence and verbal abuse. If this sounds like white trash porn, it doesn’t help to know that Glenn Close, who has become the biggest living Oscar bridesmaid with seven nominations, will play a character called Mamaw. And if that sounds trashy, then you have to know that Amy Adams, who follows Glenn with six nominations, is playing her drug-addicted, careless daughter. I don’t want to call this “Oscar bait”, but it sure is tempting. -I’m Thinking of Ending Things: After his stopmotion existential dramedy Anomalisa got him a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Oscars but at the same time bombed at the box office, Charlie Kaufman is getting the Netflix check. This time, he’s adapting the dark novel by Iain Reid, about a woman (Jessie Buckley, who is on the rise and took over the role after Brie Larson had to pass) who is taken by her boyfriend (Jesse Plemons) to meet his parents (Toni Collette and David Thewlis), in a trip that takes a turn for the worse. If Kaufman can deliver with this one, it will be a big contender. -In the Heights: Yes, more musicals! This time, it’s time to talk about Lin-Manuel Miranda’s first Tony-winning musical, that was overshadowed because of his other small play about some treasury secretary. Now, his Broadway ensemble tale about life in a neighborhood in Washington Heights is jumping to the movie screen with Jon Chu at the helm, following the success of Crazy Rich Asians. This Latino tale mixes up-and-comers like Anthony Ramos (who comes straight from Hamilton and playing Lady Gaga’s friend in A Star is Born), names like Corey Hawkins and Jimmy Smits (who is pro bits), and Olga Merediz, who starred in the Broadway show as Abuela Claudia and who could be the early frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress, if Chu allows her to shine like she did onstage. -Jesus Was My Homeboy: When looking at up-and-coming Black actors right now in Hollywood, two of the top names are Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield, who already appeared in the same movie in Get Out, which earned Kaluuya a Best Actor nomination. This time, they share the screen in Shaka King’s retelling of the story of Fred Hampton (Kaluuya), an activist and Black Panther leader… as well as the story of William O’Neal (Stanfield), the FBI agent sent by J. Edgar Hoover to infiltrate the party and arrest him. With the backing of Warner Bros, this will attempt to make an impact with a clash of actors that will have to fight with an August release date, not the ideal time to release an awards movie. -King Richard: Starting with Suicide Squad, Will Smith has been trying to prove that he’s back and better than ever. Some attempts to get back to the top of the A-list (Aladdin, Bad Boys For Life) have worked, while others (Gemini Man, Spies in Disguise)... have not. But Will is still going, and now he’s going for his next prestige play as he plays Richard Williams, the coach and father of the tennis legends Venus and Serena, who pushed them to their full potential. While it’s weird that the father of the Williams sisters is getting a movie before them, it does sound like a meaty role for Smith, who has experience with Oscar notices with sports biopics because of what he did with Michael Mann in Ali. Let’s hope director Reinaldo Marcus Green can take him there too. -Last Night in Soho: Every year, one or two directors who have a cool reputation end up in the Dolby Theatre, and 2020 could be the year of Edgar Wright. After delivering his first big box office hit with Baby Driver, the Brit is going back to London to tell a story in the realm of psychological horror, which has been supposedly inspired by classics like Don’t Look Now and Repulsion. With a premise that supposedly involves time travel and a cast that includes Anya-Taylor Joy, Thomasin McKenzie, Matt Smith and Diana Rigg, Wright (who also co-wrote this with Krysty Wilson-Cairns, who was just nominated for Best Original Screenplay for her work in 1917) is making a big swing. -Let Them All Talk: Every year there’s more new streaming services, and that also means that there’s new players in the Oscar game. To secure subscribers to the new service, HBO Max has secured the rights to the next Steven Soderbergh movie, a comedy that stars Meryl Streep as a celebrated author that takes her friends (Candice Bergen, Dianne Wiest) and her nephew (Lucas Hedges, again) in a journey to find fun and come to terms with the past. The last time that Soderbergh and Streep worked together, the end result was the very disappointing The Laundromat. Let’s hope that this time everything works out. -Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Now that Netflix got the deal to adapt August Wilson’s acclaimed plays with Denzel Washington’s production company, the next jump from the stage to the screen is a meaty one. Viola Davis is playing blues singer Ma Rainey in this tale of a heated recording session with her bandmates, her agent and her producer in 1927, with a cast that also includes Chadwick Boseman, Glynn Turman and Colman Domingo. The Tony nominated play talked about race, art and the intersection of the two, and it’s gonna be explosive to see that unfold on screen, even if director George C. Wolfe’s previous filmography isn’t very encouraging. -Macbeth: In a shocking development, the Coen brothers are no more. Well, just this time. For the first time in his career, Joel Coen is making a movie without Ethan, and it’s a Shakespeare adaptation. Denzel Washington is playing the man who wants to be king of Scotland, and Frances McDormand is playing his Lady Macbeth. While this just started filming and it will be a race to finish it in time for competition in the awards race, the potential is there, and this project has everybody’s attention. -Mank: After scoring 24 Oscar nominations and only winning 2 awards last Sunday, Netflix has to wonder what else must they do to get in the club that awards them. They tried with Cuarón, they tried with Scorsese, they tried with Baumbach, they tried with two Popes, and they still feel a barrier. Now, the big gamble for awards by the streamer in 2020 comes to us in the hands of David Fincher, who is basically their friend after the rest of Hollywood denied him (Disney dropped his 20,000 Leagues adaptation, HBO denied the US remake of Utopia, and Paramount drove World War Z 2 away from him). In his first movie since 2014’s Gone Girl, David will go black and white to tackle a script by his late father about the making of the classic of classics, Citizen Kane, with previous Oscar winner Gary Oldman playing the lead role of screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz. Will the Academy fall for the ultimate “power of da moviesshhh” story? -Minari: Sundance can be hit or miss with the breakout films that try to make it to the Oscars. However, you can’t deny the waves made by A24 when they premiered Lee Isaac Chung’s new drama there, ending up winning the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award in the US Dramatic Competition. If Parasite endeared Academy voters to Korean families, Steven Yeun hopes that the same thing happens with this story, where he plays a father in the ‘80s who suddenly decides to move his family to Arkansas to start a farm. Even though the reviews have been great, we must also remember that last year, A24 had in their hands The Farewell, another Sundance hit about an Asian family that ended up with no Oscar nominations. Let’s hope that this time, the Plan B influence (remember, that’s Brad Pitt’s production company, of Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave fame) makes a difference. -Next Goal Wins: It’s a good time to be Taika Waititi. Why? Taika Waititi can do what he wants. He can direct a Thor movie, he can win an Oscar for writing a comedy set in WW2 about a Third Reich boy who has an Imaginary Hitler friend, or he can pop up in The Mandalorian as a droid. Taika keeps winning, and he wants more. Between his press tour for Jojo Rabbit and his return to the MCU, he quickly shot an adaptation of a great documentary about the disgraced national team of American Samoa, one of the worst football teams known to man, as they try to make the cut for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Everybody loves a good sports comedy, and Searchlight bets that we’ll enjoy this story led by Michael Fassbender as the new (and Dutch-American) coach in town who tries to shape the team for victory. -News of the World: Seven years after their solid collaboration in Captain Phillips, Paul Greengrass and Tom Hanks reunite for more awards love in what seems to be Universal’s main attraction for the Oscars. This time, Hanks stars in a Western drama based on Paulette Jiles’ novel where he plays a traveling newsreader in the aftermath of the American Civil War who is tasked with reuniting an orphaned girl with her living relatives. With a Christmas release date, Universal is betting big in getting the same nomination boost that 1917 is enjoying right now, and the formula is promising. -Nightmare Alley: Following his Best Picture and Best Director wins for The Shape of Water, everybody in Hollywood wondered what would Guillermo del Toro do next. Well, as Del Toro often does, a little bit of everything and nothing. Some projects moved (as his produced Pinocchio movie on Netflix, or his Death Stranding likeness cameo), others stalled and die (like his proposed Fantastic Voyage remake). But now he’s rolling on his next project, a new adaptation of the William Lindsay Gresham novel that already was a Tyrone Power film in 1947. This noir tale tells the story of a con man (Bradley Cooper) who teams up with a psychiatrist (Cate Blanchett) to trick people and win money, and how things get out of control. With a cast that also includes Toni Collette, Willem Dafoe, Rooney Mara and more, this could play well if it hits the right tone. -Nomadland: There’s breakout years, and then there’s the amazing potential of Chloe Zhao’s 2020. On the one hand, after making Hollywood notice her skill with the gripping story of The Rider, she got the keys to the MCU kingdom to direct the next potential franchise of Kevin Feige, The Eternals. And just in case, she also has in her sleeve this indie drama that she wrote and directed beforehand, with two-time Oscar winner Frances McDormand playing a woman who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad. If Chloe nails these two films, it could be the one-two punch of the decade. -One Night in Miami: Regina King is living her best life. Following her Oscar win for Best Supporting Actress in If Beale Street Could Talk and the success that came with her lead role in the Watchmen show on HBO, the actress is jumping to a new challenge: directing movies. For her big screen debut, she’s adapting Kemp Powers’ play that dramatizes a real meeting on February 25, 1964, between Muhammad Ali, Malcolm X, Sam Cooke and Jim Brown. -Over the Moon: After earning praise and Oscar nominations with I Lost My Body and Klaus, Netflix will keep its bet on animated movies with a film directed by the legendary Glen Keane. Who? A classic Disney animator responsible for the design of characters like Ariel, the Beast, Aladdin, Pocahontas, Tarzan and more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jRkx2PNVr8), and who recently won an Oscar for Best Animated Short for Dear Basketball, which he co-directed with the late Kobe Bryant. Now, he brings us a musical adventure centered around a Chinese girl who builds a rocket ship and blasts off to the Moon in hopes of meeting a legendary Moon Goddess. -Passing: It’s always interesting when an actor jumps behind the camera, and Rebecca Hall’s case is no exception. For her directorial debut, Hall chose to adapt Nella Larsen’s acclaimed novel set in Harlem in the 1920s, about two mixed race childhood friends (Ruth Negga and Tessa Thompson) who reunite in adulthood and become obsessed with one another's lives. With a premise that explores tough questions about race and sexuality, it looks like a tricky challenge for a first timer, but it would be more impressive if Hall manages to rise over the challenge. -Prisoner 760: An interesting part of following the awards circuit is looking at when it's appropriate to talk about touchy subjects in recent history. I’m saying that because this next movie tells the real life tale of Mohamedou Ould Slahi (Tahar Rahim), a man who, despite not being charged or having a set trial, is held in custody at Guantanamo Bay, and turns towards a pair of lawyers (Jodie Foster and Shailene Woodley) to aid him. Based on the famous journal that the man wrote while he was being detained, the movie (that also counts with Benedict Cumberbatch) is directed by Kevin Macdonald who, a long time ago, helped Forest Whitaker win Best Actor for The Last King of Scotland. Could he get back in the race after almost 15 years of movies like State of Play? -Raya and the Last Dragon: This year, Walt Disney Animation Studios’ bet for the Oscars is a fantasy tale set in a mysterious realm called Kumandra, where a warrior named Raya searches for the last dragon in the world. And that dragon has the voice of Awkwafina. Even though they missed out last Oscars when Frozen II got the cold shoulder by the Academy in Best Animated Feature, this premise looks interesting enough to merit a chance. One more thing: between last year’s Abominable, Over the Moon and this movie, there’s a clear connection of animated movies trying to appeal to Chinese sensibilities (and that sweet box office). -Rebecca: It’s wild to think that the only time that Alfred Hitchcock made a film that won the Oscar for Best Picture was with 1940’s adaptation of Daphne du Maurier’s psychological thriller novel, more muted and conventional than his more known classics. Now, Ben Wheatley and Netflix are giving the Gothic story a new spin, with Lily James playing the newly married young woman who finds herself battling the shadow of her husband's (Armie Hammer) dead first wife, the mysterious Rebecca. The story is a classic, and we have to see how much weird Wheatley stuff is in the mix. -Red, White and Water: Between 2011 and 2014, Jennifer Lawrence was everywhere and people loved it. She was America’s sweetheart, the Oscar winner, Katniss Everdeen. But then, everything kinda fell. Those X-Men movies got worse and she looked tired of being in them, her anecdotes got less charming and more pandering to some, she took respectable risks that didn’t pay off with Red Sparrow and Mother!, and some people didn’t like that she said that it wasn’t nice to share private photos of her online. Now, she looks to get back to the Oscar race with a small project funded by A24 and directed by Lila Neugebauer in her film debut, about a soldier who comes back to the US after suffering a traumatic brain injury in Afghanistan. Also, Brian Tyree Henry is in this, and it would be amazing if he got nominated for something. -Respect: You know what’s a surefire way to get Academy voters’ attention? Play a real singer! Rami Malek took a win last year for playing Freddie Mercury, Renee Zellweger just won the gold after portraying Judy Garland, and now Jennifer Hudson wants more Oscar love. Almost 15 years after taking Best Supporting Actress for her role in Dreamgirls, Hudson will try to get more by playing soul legend Aretha Franklin, in a biopic directed by first timer Liesl Tommy that practically screams “give me the gold”. How am I so sure? Well, see the teaser that they released in December (for a movie that opens in October), and tell me. It will work out better for Hudson than Cats, that’s for sure. -Soul: Unless they really disappoint (I’m looking at you, The Good Dinosaur, Cars 2 and Cars 3), you can’t have the Oscars without inviting Pixar to the party. This year, they have two projects in the hopes of success. While in a few weeks we’ll see what happens with the fantasy family road trip of Onward, the studio’s biggest bet of the year clearly is the next existential animation written and directed by Pete Docter, who brought Oscar gold to his home with Up and Inside Out. The movie, which centers on a teacher (voice of Jamie Foxx) who dreams of becoming a jazz musician and, just as he’s about to get his big break, ends up getting into an accident that separates his soul from his body, had a promising first trailer, and it also promises a score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, as well as new songs by Jon Batiste. The only downside so far for the marketing was the fact that the trailer reveal led people to notice a suspicious trend involving black characters when they lead an animated movie. -Tenet: When Leonardo DiCaprio finally touched his Academy Award, an alarm went off in the mind of a portion of Internet users, who have made their next crusade to give themselves to the cause of getting Christopher Nolan some Oscar love. And his next blank check, an action thriller involving espionage and time travel, could pull off the same intersection of popcorn and prestige that made Inception both a box office hit and a critically acclaimed Oscar nominee. It helps to have a cast of impressive names like John David Washington, Elizabeth Debicki and Robert Pattinson, as well as a crew that includes Ludwig Goransson and Hoyte van Hoytema. In other words, if this becomes a hit, this could go for a huge number of nominations. -The Devil All the Time: As you may have noticed by now, Netflix is leading the charge in possible Oscar projects. Another buzzy movie that comes from them is the new psychological thriller by Antonio Campos, a filmmaker known for delivering small and intimate but yet intense and terrifying dramas like Simon Killer and Christine. Using the novel by Donald Ray Pollock, Campos will follow non-linearly a cast of characters in Ohio between the end of World War II and the beginning of the Vietnam War, with the help of an interesting cast that includes Tom Holland, Sebastian Stan, Robert Pattinson, Mia Wasikowska, Eliza Scanlen, Bill Skarsgard, Jason Clarke and Riley Keough. -The Eyes of Tammy Faye: After being known as a sketch comedy goofball because of The State, Wet Hot American Summer and Stella, Michael Showalter reinvented himself as a director of small and human dramedies like Hello, My Name is Doris and The Big Sick. For his next project, he’s gonna mix a little bit of both worlds, because he has before him the story of the televangelists Tammy Faye Bakker (Jessica Chastain, who has been really trying to recapture her early ‘10 awards run to no avail) and Jim Bakker (Andrew Garfield, who was previously nominated for Hacksaw Ridge, instead of Silence, because why). With a real life tale that involves Christian theme parks, fraud and conspiracies, this is the kind of loud small movie that Searchlight loves to parade around, especially as an actors showcase (Jojo Rabbit being the most recent example). The first image looks terrifying, by the way. -The Father: It’s weird to be in the middle of February and say that there’s already a frontrunner for the Best Actor race at the next Oscars. After its premiere in Sundance a couple of weeks ago, every prognosticator pointed in the direction of Anthony Hopkins (recently nominated for Best Supporting Actor in The Two Popes), who delivers a harrowing portrayal of an old man grappling with his age as he develops dementia, causing pain to his beleaguered daughter (recent winner Olivia Colman, who also got praised). With reviews calling it a British answer to Amour (in other words: it’s a hard watch), Florian Zeller’s adaptation of his acclaimed play not only benefits from having Hopkins and Colman together as a selling point, because it was acquired by Sony Pictures Classics, a distributor with experience in getting Academy voters to watch adult movies with heavy themes. If you don’t believe me, watch how they got Julianne Moore a win for Still Alice, as well as recent nominations for Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Glenn Close for The Wife, and Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory. They know the game, and they are going to hit hard for Hopkins and Colman. -The French Dispatch:If you saw the trailer, we don’t need to dwell too much on the reasons. On the one hand, we have the style of Wes Anderson, a filmmaker who has become a name in both the critics circle and the casual viewer, with his last two movies (The Grand Budapest Hotel and Isle of Dogs) earning several Oscar nominations, including Best Picture for the one with Gustave H. Then, we have a long cast that goes from the director’s regulars like Bill Murray to new stars like Timothee Chalamet, and also includes people like Benicio del Toro. The only thing that could endanger the Oscar chances for this is that the story, an anthology set around a period comedy with an European riff on The New Yorker, will alienate the average Academy member. -The Humans: There’s the prestige of a play, and then there’s the prestige of a Tony-winning play. Playwright Stephen Karam now gets to jump to the director’s chair to take his acclaimed 2016 one-act story to the big screen, and A24 is cutting the check. Telling the story of a family that gets together on Thanksgiving to commiserate about life, this adaptation will be led by original performer Jayne Houdyshell (who also won a Tony for her stage performance), who’ll be surrounded by Richard Jenkins, Beanie Feldstein, Amy Schumer, Steven Yeun and June Squibb. If it avoids getting too claustrophobic or stagey for the cinema, it will be a good contender. -The Last Duel: Always speedy, Ridley Scott is working on his next possible trip to the Oscars. This time, it’s the telling of a true story in 14th-century France, where a knight (Matt Damon) accuses his former friend (Adam Driver) of raping his wife (Jodie Comer), with the verdict being determined by the titular duel. It’s a juicy story, but there was some concern when it seemed that the script was only being written by Damon and Ben Affleck (who’ll also appear in the film). A rape story written by them after the Weinstein revelations… not the best look. But then, it was revealed that they were writing the screenplay with indie figure Nicole Holofcener, who last year was nominated for an Oscar for her script for Can You Ever Forgive Me? Let’s hope that the story is told in a gripping but not exploitative way, and that it doesn’t reduce the role of Comer (who deserves more than some of the movie roles that she’s getting after Killing Eve) to a Hollywood stereotype. -The Power of the Dog: We have to talk about the queen of the indie world, we have to talk about Jane Campion. More than a decade after her last movie, Bright Star, the Oscar and Palme d’Or winner for The Piano returns with a non-TV project (see Top of the Lake, people) thanks to Netflix, with a period drama centered around a family dispute between a pair of wealthy brothers in Montana, Phil (Benedict Cumberbatch) and George Burbank (Jesse Plemons), after the latter one marries a local widow (Kirsten Dunst). According to the synopsis, “a shocked and angry Phil wages a sadistic, relentless war to destroy her entirely using her effeminate son Peter as a pawn”. Can’t wait to see what that means. -The Prom: Remember the Ryan Murphy blank check deal with Netflix that I mentioned earlier? Well, another of the projects in the first batch of announcements for the deal is a musical that he’ll direct, adapting the Tony-nominated show about a group of Broadway losers (now played by the one and only Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman, Andrew Rannells and, uh, James Corden, for some reason) who try to find a viral story to get back in the spotlight, and end up going to a town in Indiana to help a lesbian high school student who has been banned from bringing her girlfriend to the prom. The show has been considered a fun and heartwarming tale of acceptance, so the movie could be an easy pick for an average Academy voter who doesn’t look too hard (and you know that the Golden Globes will nominate the shirt out of this). It’s funny how this comes out the same year than Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, and then it’s not funny realizing that Film Twitter will pit the two movies against each other. -The Trial of the Chicago 7: After getting a taste of the director’s taste with Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin wants more. For his second movie, he’s tackling one of his specialties: a courtroom drama. And this one is a period movie centered around the trial on countercultural activists in the late ‘60s, which immediately attracts a campaign of how “important” this movie is today’s culture. To add the final blow, we have a cast that includes Sacha Baron Cohen, Eddie Redmayne, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Jeremy Strong, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Frank Langella, William Hurt, Michael Keaton and Mark Rylance. If Sorkin can contain himself from going over the top (and with that cast, it would be so easy to surrender to bouts of screaming and winding speeches), this could be one of the top contenders. -Those Who Wish Me Dead: Having made a good splash in the directorial waters with Wind River, Taylor Sheridan (also known for writing the Sicario movies, the Oscar-nominated Hell or High Water or that Yellowstone show that your uncle raves about on Facebook) returns with yet another modern Western. For this thriller based on the Michael Koryta novel, Angelina Jolie stars as a survival expert in the Montana wilderness who is tasked with protecting a teenager who witnessed a murder, while assassins are pursuing him and a wildfire grows closer. -Untitled David O. Russell Project: Following the mop epic Joy, that came and went in theaters but still netted a Best Actress nomination for Jennifer Lawrence, the angriest director in Hollywood took a bit of a break (it didn’t help that he tried to do a really expensive show with Amazon starring Robert De Niro and Julianne Moore that fell apart when the Weinstein exposes sank everything). Now, he’s quickly putting together his return to the days of Oscar love that came with stuff like The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle, with a new movie that is set to star Christian Bale, Margot Robbie and Michael B. Jordan. Even though we don’t know many details (some people are saying the movie is called Amsterdam) except for the fact the movie hasn’t started shooting yet, David is a quick guy, so he’ll get it ready for the fall festival circuit. If there’s one thing that David O. Russell knows (apart from avoid getting cancelled for abusing people like Lily Tomlin, Amy Adams and his niece), it’s to make loud actor showcases. -Untitled Nora Fingscheidt Project: When Bird Box became one of the biggest hits on Netflix history, the streamer decided to keep itself in the Sandra Bullock business. Sandy’s next project for Ted Sarandos is a drama where she plays a woman who is released from prison after serving time for a violent crime, and re-enters a society that refuses to forgive her past. To get redemption, she searches her younger sister she was forced to leave behind. With the direction of Fingscheidt, who comes from an acclaimed directorial debut with Systemsprenger (Germany’s submission to the last Academy Awards), and a cast that also includes Viola Davis, Vincent D’Onofrio and Jon Bernthal, this will also hopefully try its luck later this year. -Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project: We don’t know if this movie will be ready for the end of the year (although last time, he managed to sneak Phantom Thread under the buzzer and earn several Oscar nominations, including Best Picture), but PTA is apparently gonna start to shoot it soon, with the backing of Focus Features. After several movies with prestige locations and intricate production design, Film Twitter’s Holy Spirit will go back to the San Fernando Valley in the 1970s, to tell the story of a high school student who is also a successful child actor. -Stillwater: Tom McCarthy’s recent career is certainly puzzling. After delivering the weird lows of The Cobbler, he bounced back with the Best Picture winner that was Spotlight. And following that, he… helped produce the 13 Reasons Why series. And following that… he made Timmy Failure: Mistakes Were Made, a Disney+ original movie. Now, he’s back to the award race with a drama starring Matt Damon, who plays a father who rushes from Oklahoma to France to help his daughter (Abigail Breslin), who is in prison after being suspected for a murder she claims she didn’t commit. -West Side Story: To close things, we have to see one of the possible big contenders of the season, Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the iconic musical that translates Romeo and Juliet to the context of a street gang war in 1950s New York. While the decision to adapt again something that has been a classic both in Broadway and in movie theaters almost 60 years ago is a challenge, the idea of Spielberg doing a musical closer to the stage version with Tony Kushner as the writer is too tempting for the average Academy voter, who is already saving a spot in major categories in case Steven nails it in December. However, there’s two question marks. First, how well will Ansel Elgort and newcomer Rachel Zegler stand out in the roles of Tony and Maria? And second, will In the Heights steal some of the thunder of this movie by being, you know, more modern?
[Spoilers Extended] Evaluating the "Conspiracy Mentality" of the ASOIAF Fandom
Read this essay by Duncan Hubber, originally published nearly two years ago, a long while back on Tower of the Hand and when looking again today to see if anything new had been published I was reminded of its existence! He does such a great job breaking down the conspiracies within the text itself, as well as juxtaposing them to ours in the fandom as well. Just wanted to share for those who haven’t read it and see what all y’all might think, or even just inspire some great threads! Also Tower of the Hand is full of a bunch of other great essays from a variety of writers. Check it out! Here’s the original with more links included, it also has some pretty pictures. If you don’t have an account and set your spoiler scope already you’ll have to click on that tab and do so to see the content as a visitor. Evaluating the "Conspiracy Mentality" of the ASOIAF Fandom. There is a rich tradition of conspiracy theorising in A Song of Ice and Fire, practiced by both its characters and its readers. Through his use of point-of-view chapters, author George R. R. Martin demonstrates how nothing is as it seems on the surface, and every character harbours their own unique set of goals and agendas. I'm hard-pressed to think of another series with as many unresolved mysteries as ASOIAF, or with a fanbase as relentless in solving all of them. Theorycrafting is a fascinating and enjoyable enterprise which often adds new layers to the text. The first great mystery of the story - who is Jon Snow's mother? - is an excellent example of this effect, as its potential answer forces us to re-evaluate our perception of various characters and past events, and offers us clues regarding the future of the books. Martin cultivates this "conspiracy mentality" in several ways. Firstly, he demonstrates the disjunction between individual characters' perspectives of events and the version of history propagated by those in power. The events which incite the War of the Five Kings exemplify this narrative clash. In book one (A Game of Thrones), the reader follows Ned Stark as he uncovers the bastardry of Queen Cersei's children and his subsequent attempts to secure control of the capital so that power can be transferred to the deceased king's brother Stannis Baratheon. Unfortunately, Ned is betrayed by the crown's treasurer Petyr Baelish and imprisoned in the black cells, where he is forced by Cersei (out of fear for his daughters' lives) to confess to trying to overthrow the lawful king Joffrey and usurp power for himself. This confession, which is followed by his unanticipated execution, is witnessed by the citizens of King's Landing and supports the royal proclamation of House Stark's treachery and Joffrey's legitimacy. This is a quintessential example of a conspiracy - an illegal or harmful act carried out by members of government or other powerful actors for their own ends, which they attempt to keep secret - and it is the premise for the entire series. Anyone who challenges the official account of King's Landing, such as Stannis Baratheon, would be proposing a conspiracy theory. Tellingly, when Stannis does issue letters across the Seven Kingdoms declaring Joffrey's illegitimacy, Cersei and the small council do not merely deny his charge, but attack Stannis' credibility with their own conspiracy theory - that his daughter Shireen is actually the illegitimate one, fathered by his court fool Patchface. ASOIAF is overflowing with such treachery, from assassinations and blackmail, to vast clandestine plots against the social order. It's important to note that the example given above is the only conspiracy in which we are largely privy to all of the facts; that is, we are given perspectives from all of the main participants - Ned, Jaime and Cersei - and it's reasonably clear where the truth ends and the lies begin; although, even then we can only guess to what extent characters like Baelish, Varys, Pycelle, or persons unknown played a role. Most of the other conspiracies in the series are only half-glimpsed or occur beyond the gaze of our point-of-view characters. For instance, the death of Jon Arryn and the failed assassination of Bran Stark are major mysteries throughout the first book. Ned and Catelyn Stark theorise that they were the results of a Lannister conspiracy and proceed on that basis; however, by the end of the third book (A Storm of Swords), after both characters are dead, it is revealed that this assumption was incorrect, that Baelish and Lysa Arryn were responsible for the former Hand's death and neither Cersei nor Jaime had anything to do with the second attempt on Bran's life. Thus, Martin presents a world very much like our own - conspiracy theories are not inherently irrational, since conspiracies do occur and some theories are proven correct (see: the Watergate, Iran-Contra, and NSA phone-tapping scandals); but most conspiracy theories are lacking information, contain false information, distort information to suit their conclusions, or are based on unsound reasoning, and acting on such theories can be profoundly destructive - both to people's lives and to the epistemology we use to understand the world. Another way that Martin foregrounds the theme of conspiracy throughout ASOIAF is by showing characters' day-to-day lives as they plot against others and attempt to calculate and counteract the plots directed at them. This is most apparent in King's Landing, where all of the noble families are feverishly vying for political advantage. However, the mindset is prevalent across every political theatre of the series and even between members of the same family. Tyrion Lannister engages in a battle of manipulation and sabotage with his sister Cersei throughout book two (A Clash of Kings), with each sibling attempting to weed out the others' spies, pilfer the others' sellswords and secure the others' secrets as blackmail. It produces a suffocating sense of paranoia which plagues the two characters for the rest of the books. Even after Tyrion has fled across the narrow sea, Cersei is convinced he is still hiding in the walls of the Red Keep, plotting her downfall; she sends guards into the tunnels to track him down and burns down the Tower of the Hand in vain effort to expel the fear. Likewise, while travelling across Essos, Tyrion remains disguised and wary of every set of eyes that pass over him lest they belong to hunters responding to Cersei's bounty. The siblings have reoccurring nightmares about their reunion, and disturbingly, fantasise about the ways they would like to torture each other. To quote Nirvana: "Just because you're paranoid, don't mean they're not after you." Tyrion and Cersei are perhaps the most psychologically damaged by this "conspiracy mentality", but all of Martin's characters experience it, and the closer they get to power, the more vividly they feel its effect. Even a character like Ned - who hated the duplicitous nature of the "game of thrones" - was forced to become a conspirator in order to avoid being the victim of a conspiracy (alas, too little, too late). Metatextually, this writing style instils in the reader a profound scepticism - it teaches us to distrust whatever non-POV characters say or how things appear, and to scrutinise every encounter for clues on what people's true motivations and ultimate goals might be. It teaches us to approach every disaster with the question: who benefits most from this? Political editor Jesse Walker has identified five categories of conspiracy theory, each of which refers to a different type of conspirator. The "Enemy Outside" alludes to figures scheming against a community from without it, while the "Enemy Within" alludes to schemers lurking inside the community, indistinguishable from ordinary citizens. From the Starks' perspective, the Lannisters would be the external enemy working against the north, while the Boltons would be the internal enemy, harming it from within. However, if we extend the definition of "community" to the Seven Kingdoms, with Robert Baratheon as its legal ruler, then the Lannisters would be regarded as an internal enemy, while figures like Illyrio Mopatis, Khal Drogo, Mance Rayder, and Jon Connington would be regarded as external enemies. The "Enemy Above" involves the upper classes manipulating society for their own gain, while the "Enemy Below" involves the lower classes working to overturn the social order. There are countless instances throughout the series of the powerful abusing and exploiting the powerless. Tywin Lannister ordering the sacking of the riverlands and Mace Tyrell suspending grain shipments to King's Landing are two obvious examples which lead to the suffering of many in return for the self-interest of a few. The conspiracy from below is a less common phenomenon in Westeros, but is evident in the later books, almost as a direct result of the conspiracies of the powerful; for example, the Brotherhood Without Banners raids and thieves from Lannister and Stark soldiers in order to replenish the devastated resources of the riverlands smallfolk. Likewise, in book four (A Feast for Crows), the septon known as the High Sparrow is able to galvanise the disenfranchised rural and urban peasants in a religious uprising against the corrupt aristocracy of King's Landing. Along with the pressures of politics, Martin also depicts metaphysical conspiracies at work in the story, which take the form of dreams, visions and prophecies. Most of the main characters have experienced such spectacles, either while sleeping or during states of mental alteration; instances include Daenerys Targaryen drinking shade-of-the-evening and entering the psychedelic House of the Undying, or a marooned, dehydrated Davos Seaworth hearing the Mother chastise him. Some characters, such as Melisandre of Asshai and the Ghost of High Heart, claim to be able to receive information about the future from a divine being or beings. The nature of such visions is highly ambiguous, and often produces more questions than answers. For example, one of Undying visions Dany witnesses is of a naked woman being assaulted by four small rodent-like men. Most readers have interpreted this not as a literal event, but as an allegory for the War of the Five Kings, with the woman symbolising Westeros being ravaged by the four remaining claimants. Conversely, another vision shows a dining hall filled with corpses seated around a dead man with a wolf's head. This seems to be a literal glimpse at the aftermath of the Red Wedding, albeit with some figurative flourishes (that is, Robb was probably taken elsewhere to have Grey Wind's head sewn on). In book three, the Ghost of High Heart recalls a vision of a girl resembling Sansa Stark, who "slay[s] a savage giant in a castle built of snow." The readership is hesitant whether this vision has been fulfilled or not (in a later chapter, Sansa dismembers a toy giant whose owner ruined her snow castle), or whether it is still pending in some grander form. In book five (A Dance with Dragons), the shadowbinder Quaithe warns Dany that the "griffin" and the "mummer's dragon" are coming to treat with her, only for Tyrion to convince Jon Connington to travel to Westeros directly instead. This error suggests that visions are not inevitable, but are closer to educated guesses based on current circumstances; they are weather reports, if you will, storms gathering and dispersing to the flaps of some butterfly on Naath. Melisandre, however, would vehemently disagree with these misgivings, asserting that the prophecy of Azor Ahai reborn is the only truth in existence. Yet, even if this is the case, it seems possible that she has blundered in her selection of candidate. Samwell Tarly and Maester Aemon both notice that while Stannis' sword glows, it emits no heat. What's interesting is that Melisandre's point-of-view chapter in book five shows no awareness of this self-delusion, and she is genuinely baffled that her nightfires show her visions of Jon Snow, rather than Stannis. Like a bad conspiracy theorist, she has become stuck in a pattern of ignoring or faking evidence in order to suit her conclusion. To the reader's privileged gaze, Daenerys' fiery dragon-hatching rebirth seems to fulfil the criteria of Azor Ahai far more convincingly than Stannis or Jon; yet while our field of knowledge might exceed Melisandre's or any one character in the series, it is vital to remember that we too are still missing huge gaps. We cannot grow careless of what a former Secretary of Defence called the "unknown unknowns." Dreams are related to visions in the sense that they often provide characters with metaphysical insights into the world beyond their frame of experience or knowledge. Some characters are more sensitive to the spirit world than others, particularly characters who have been close to death, like Bran and Patchface. Like the images Dany encounters in the House of the Undying, Bran's greendreams reveal allegorical visions of future events, such as the surprise attack on Winterfell by the ironborn. Most of the Stark children have a strong spiritual connection with their direwolves; at various points, they are also able to look through the animal's eyes (and sometimes other animals) to acquire extrasensory knowledge about the world. For example, while warging into Ghost, Jon is able to sense that Shaggydog is alive and fighting with a large, horned goat; these warg dreams plant a stubborn notion in Jon's head that his younger brothers are still alive, while the reader is able to extrapolate further and deduce that Rickon is currently on the isle of Skagos. That said, it is noteworthy that most dreams in the series are not necessarily depicted as metaphysical insights, but rather insights into a character's subconscious. For example, in book two, Theon has a nightmare in which he is dining at a table of dead people, when a bloodied Robb Stark staggers into the hall; this has been seen by some as vision of the Red Wedding (which Theon's capture of Winterfell helps facilitate); however, it could just as likely be a symbolic expression of Theon's guilt at having betrayed his foster brother. This is not to suggest that the subconscious is a shallow vein for divulging conspiracies or mysteries. Ned Stark rarely thinks of the circumstances of his sister Lyanna's kidnapping by Rhaegar Targaryen; yet, after being attacked by Jaime Lannister, his fever dreams include a hazy recollection of his arrival at the Tower of Joy, which etches a counter-narrative to the one propagated by Robert Baratheon. Likewise, Tyrion's conscious memories of his former wife Tysha are profoundly painful to him, yet the subconscious memories he has of her while recovering from the Battle of Blackwater are marked by a sense of warmth and safety; they contradict the version of their relationship that Tywin forced upon him (and on her). From the reader's perspective, it seems that prophecies are just vague enough that they can be interpreted and manipulated to fit almost any theory. Certainly, several of the visions in the House of the Undying contain truth, but this only becomes apparent after the events in question have occurred. And what about the visions that haven't materialised, or that have been diverted, or that were visions of the past, or visions of an alternate reality? What about the visions that were just by-products of Dany's drug-addled mind? One can't help but question whether prophecies serve any practical use for the characters or the readers. Nevertheless, the fandom has spent countless hours parsing through all of the metaphysical flotsam and jetsam of the series in an effort to make sense of each character's destiny. These phenomena would fall under the fifth category identified by Jesse Walker - the "Benevolent" (or Malevolent) Conspiracy - in that they refer a conspiracy of divine forces, such as gods, spirits, supernatural beings or actors, who work behind the scenes to shape the lives of mortals. It is a kind of epistemology which our modern minds would regard as incredible and irrational. Nevertheless, for Martin, it is a dimension of reality which cannot be ignored; this is not to say he ever confirms the existence of a god or gods in his world, but that the various (often competing) religious factions attempt to articulate a spiritual or metaphysical facet which, for the characters, is as real as the seasons. Conspiracy theories are very appealing to people and have become increasingly popular in recent decades. Professor Brian Keeley argues that: "The desire to believe in conspiracy theories as an extension of the human urge to find meaning in our lives and the world around us. These theories, however outlandish, at least provide comforting explanations for otherwise unexplainable or random events." Political scientist Michael Barkun notes that many people have rejected the official explanation of John F. Kennedy's assassination, simply because they find it intolerable that a president could be killed and a nation brought to a halt by one pathetic loner with a gun. Such momentous distress must be the result of an equally momentous conspiracy. Comparatively, it was unthinkable to Cersei (and the reader) that King Joffrey would simply choke to death on a piece of pie at his own wedding. How could such a devastating war be fought to keep him on the throne, only for him to die such a random, meaningless death? Cersei claims that Tyrion is responsible, while other characters believe it was punishment by the gods; most readers assume that it was the work of Lord Baelish and a few members of the Tyrell family. A lot of bad things happen in the War of the Five Kings - people die from battle, plunder, starvation, disease, poisoning, and execution, all in service to a set of kings who are also dead by the end of the third book. A theory of organised evil is preferable to a reign of chaos, because at least organised evil can be identified and confronted. The only thing more terrifying than a sinister figure scheming in the shadows or a dark lord plotting in a tower is the thought that no one is in control. The combination of the series' "conspiracy mentality" and the ability to disseminate information and speculation across the internet has helped foster a vibrant theorycrafting culture in the ASOIAF fandom. According to this Angelfire page, the theory that Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark was established as early as 2000 (and probably earlier). Many other primary theories have been proven correct, such as Renly and Loras being lovers; Joffrey being murdered and Tyrion being framed for it; Stannis going to the Wall to help fight the Others; Jeyne Poole being forced into prostitution and playing the role of "fake Arya"; baby Aegon being smuggled out of King's Landing before it was sacked; and Varys plotting to restore a Targaryen to the Iron Throne (although these last two points are still in contention, given the Blackfyre theory). However, as this pre-ACOK chatlog shows, many fan theories have not born out or were abandoned with subsequent books. Message boards like Westeros.org and Tower of the Hand, and subforums on Reddit and Tumblr are teaming with debates about existing theories and newly-introduced theories. On YouTube, the most-viewed ASOIAF videos are theory-based (with character and thematic analysis a distant second). Ironically, these videos share the same platform - and often the same presenting style and search suggestions - as real-world conspiracy theories, such as the "Fake Moon Landing" theory. It is of course unfair to compare ASOIAF theory videos with real-world conspiracy theories, since the latter deals with history, while the former deals with fiction. Fiction is by definition calculated and controlled by an author. Martin is clearly presenting us with mysteries and conflicting accounts of history, and encouraging us to interrogate the text and collate the information into something closer to the truth. From a metatextual perspective, the author is the ultimate conspirator, the ultimate manipulator, working behind the scenes for a specific end. But Martin at least wants us to think critically about this process, and maybe even glimpse part of that end before it arrives. What is fascinating about ASOIAF is that the fandom has grown so large and diverse that there are now multiple competing theories responding to the same events, mysteries and visions. Indeed, fans seek answers to mysteries that initially weren't even identified as mysteries, such as who engineered the King's Landing bread riots or the true identity of the High Sparrow. Remember, conspiracy is preferable to chaos. In my opinion, this is all a result of the agonising wait between books, particularly for The Winds of Winter, which has left the main characters hanging from the edge of a cliff for almost seven years. As members of a fandom, we're all fanatical to a point, and such a gaping lack of payoff is enough to drive anyone mad. Indeed, many fan theories, intentionally or unintentionally, resemble the ramblings of Dragonstone's court fool (see: the time-travelling foetus theory). Such theories are lovingly referred to as "crackpot" or "tinfoil" theories, evoking the conspiracy theorist who wraps himself in aluminium to prevent the government (or aliens) from controlling their thoughts. In accordance with Poe's Law, it's usually impossible to separate genuine theories from theories devised purely for amusement. For example, the Grand Merling Conspiracy is inventive and affectionately re-shared across the fandom, but I would be very surprised if any readers actually believed Varys is the harbinger of an underwater fish kingdom. In this way, theorycrafting can function like a form of fanfiction, giving us the ability to generate new material out of old content, to play with the text and renew its well-worn facets. Positing future events is the closest thing fans have to glimpsing the contents of a book we so fiendishly crave. It has fostered an interactive, competitive and energetic spirit in the fandom, even at a point when there hasn't been anything new to discuss in seven years (if you exclude the TV show and The World of Ice & Fire). However, I also think that the longer the "long night" has dragged on, the more outlandish and dogmatic some of this speculating has become. There are theories formerly derided as "crackpot" which are now passionately argued and have gained increasing acceptance by many fans. Chief amongst them is an opposing theory to R+L=J (that is, Rhaegar+Lyanna=Jon) championed by popular YouTubers like Preston Jacobs. This theory posits that Rhaegar and Lyanna did not give birth to a son, but rather to a daughter. This child, Daenerys, was transported in secret to Dragonstone, possibly with the help of Ned and House Dayne, where she was swapped with the stillborn child of King Aerys and Queen Rhaella. Or alternatively, she was reunited with their son Viserys sometimes afterwards. This theory contains a lot of wild speculation; however it can be whittled down to two main arguments:
Firstly, Dany's memories of her childhood seem impossible. She recalls growing up in a House with a Red Door in Braavos, under the care of Ser Willem Darry. She often thinks wistfully about running through green fields, the smell of perfume, and playing next to a lemon tree. However, when Arya Stark travels to Braavos in book four, she describes a rainy, foggy metropolis comprised of a hundred islands linked by stone bridges. The city smells of salt and brine, and there are no trees to be found anywhere. There are also a number of passages throughout the books which indicate that citrus trees only grow in temperate regions such as Dorne and the southern free cities. These contradiction cast doubt on Dany's early life, suggesting that Viserys lied to her about the two growing up in Braavos. When the lemon tree question was put to Martin, he replied that it was a good insight into future revelations.
Secondly, when King Robert orders the assassination of Daenerys, Ned thinks back to the promise Lyanna asks of him, a promise he considers broken. This doesn't make sense, because if Jon is Lyanna's son, then he is still safe, and the promise hasn't been broken.
While I agree that the "lemon tree" memory is an intriguing anomaly in the story (although it's possible she simply grew up in the Braavosian Coastlands), I think it takes an absurd leap to arrive at Dany being the daughter of Rhaegar and Lyanna. It's definitely good to have alternate theories, because we shouldn't become too complacent and assume R+L=J is a fact, but R+L=D just makes zero sense to me, logically or narratively. However, I've already argued against this theory elsewhere, so I won't belabour the point. What I am interested in is the metatextual arguments for this theory - namely, that R+L=J can't be true, because it is too obvious. I would retort that, at face value, the obvious answer to the question of Jon's parentage is Ashara Dayne or the wetnurse Wylla, because these are the candidates explicitly mentioned in the text. The first time I read the series, R+L=J never even occurred to me. It was only after I started talking with other fans online that I became aware of this theory. One thing I think we need to keep in mind is that when Martin started writing these books, the internet wasn't as big a factor in people's lives. In 1996, there was no Wiki of Ice and Fire or Westeros.org; readers had to solve these mysteries on their own. The internet has changed the way we engage with the books, mostly for the good, because it allows readers to share a multitude of interpretation and collaborate with each other; but I also think it can rob us of the solitary detective work that Martin had originally assumed. R+L=J may seem obvious now, but I'm willing to bet most people reading the series in the 90s and early 2000s were unaware of it, and that the majority of us wouldn't have figured it out without fan sites and discussion forums. Nowadays, Game of Thrones fans don't even need to read the books - they can just go directly to the Vulture article listing the 50 biggest fan theories of ASOIAF. All of the hard work is done, and thus it seems like these established theories comprise an official account, a popular belief, a conventional wisdom - the very things that inspire scepticism in every conspiracy theorist. I think we have lived with R+L=J for so long that we have grown restless with it. One can't help but wonder if R+L=D is doomed to the same fate, and some other contrarian theory will eventually be proffered to replace it; not because new evidence has emerged (how could it - there hasn't been a new book since 2011), but because the surface cannot be trusted, and like Ramsay Bolton we peel off another layer of flesh, continually searching for the unfiltered truth beneath. This is a unique point in the story and the fandom. We're much closer to the end than the beginning, and yet there is far enough to go that it still feels like anything is possible. Many of the biggest theories remain in play, and so the fan debates will rage on for nights to come. But after the final book has dropped (George willing), that will cease to be the case. Most of these theories will die ignoble deaths, and with the object of their quarry tamed, most fans will retire the hunt and move on to greener pastures. There's something ephemeral and bittersweet about that. Although there is of course the equally likely fate that we never get an ending and will remain trapped in this citrus-scented purgatory forevermore. Scepticism is a valuable tool, especially in an age bombarded with information from so many unreliable sources. The danger, I suppose, is being unable to accept the truth when we're finally faced with it.
We're getting close to the goal. No use beating around the bush, let's get to the next five players. 20. Jouske (Samus) It's a shame that Smash 64’s scene doesn't receive much attention, because Japan's premier old school player was a force to reckon with in the early 2010s. Many players like to compare dominant players of one region or time period to a more famous player of another. For example, Ek is sometimes called “The Ken of Europe.” Wizzrobe is sometimes referred to as “New Mew2king”. I could call Jouske the “ZeRo of old school smash 64.” The “Armada of the OG game.” But, in reality, throughout his multiple accomplishments, he is one of the players we should be calling the X of. What's most impressive about his short, yet remarkable career is that he did it with such a bad character. Solo-maining Samus, a low mid tier at best, he dominated the scene in a time when the top tiers had a fierce hold on the game's tournaments. In his best years, Jouske showed exceptional skill never seen before in matchups like Kirby (40-60) and Pikachu (30-70). And this wasn't just with Samus. Of course no one saw a Samus main making those strides. But no one saw what he did with really any character. In recap, Jouske practically created the Samus metagame, was the best player in Japan for a while, and became one of the first big online 64 players. Of all of his achievements, his advancements in character spacing is one of the best. In the same way that Ken's dash-dancing molded the way that every Melee player has approached the game since, Jouske's implementation of pivoting has popularized the mechanic in all versions of the game. He wasn't the first good player to use it a lot, but he was the first to use it at a Top 5, Top 3 level. Remember, he did all of this: with a low tier character. The highest ranked Top 100 low tier hero and an inspiration for 64 players worldwide, Jouske is one of the greatest Japanese players, greatest Samuses, and greatest Smash 64 players. It's no wonder he got this high. Let's keep going. 19. Larry Lurr (Fox)(Falco)(Falco)(Wolf)(Falco)(Donkey Kong) Do you hate Falco? Most Brawl players did in 2010 before Larry Lurr, then known as “DEHF” (Does Everyone Hate Falco?), astounded everyone by tearing through GNES, Mew2King, Atomsk, and Brood twice with a low tier character to take Apex 2010, the third biggest Brawl tournament at the time with a low tier character. Are you telling me Falco wasn't low tier in Brawl? Maybe that's an answer to Larry's question. Irregardless, Larry's incredible run exalted him as one of America's premier players for years to come. Although he definitely slipped in the latter years of Brawl, his legend continued in consistent success in Smash 4. While definitely not as noteworthy as ZeRo, Nairo, or others, Larry's post-Brawl accomplishments are definitely nothing to scoff at. His repeated successes to showcase his abilities to compete with the best shouldn't be overlooked. One aspect that really mars his legacy on Smash 4 is his consistency, ironically. While consistency is the trait that gave ZeRo and Armada fame, by being ranked around the 6th to 7th range most of his career, Larry's consistent placings were 3rds, 4ths, 5ths, or 7ths, not as consistent 1sts or 2nds. Aside from his 2nd place at 2GGT: ZeRo Saga that was vastly overshadowed by MkLeo's performance at the event, Larry never had any watershed moments for his Smash 4 career, like PC Chris's MLG New York Opener, or Zain's Shine, so his Smash 4 legacy is often down played. Does everyone hate Falco? Who knows. What do we know? That Larry Lurr's incredible career of over 8 years has turned him into a household name worldwide. 18. wario (Pikachu) You know this guy has had a long career when he made his tag the name of a character that’s been in the series for 11 years, before the character was added into the game. Of all the Smash 64 players around his tier, wario has one of the longest and most successful careers. Although the competition is stiff, it’s reasonable to say that wario is the second greatest Smash 64 player of all time. But what distinguishes wario against the others? Early Smash 64 had one of the most separated scenes in smash’s history. The American and Japanese scenes never interacted in tournaments and very rarely online so the metagame for each evolved independently as the game grew. Each community played on a different version of the game so things couldn’t be more different too. Where North America saw the rise of Pikachu, 64’s best character, right as the game launched, Japan lived in the era of Kirby. Consistently, up to half of Smash 64 Top 8s were Kirbys while Pikachu remained less popular. I can’t say that Pikachu was thought of bad in this era, but not as good as Pikachu. Did wario show them wrong. It’s hard to create storylines for these players when there aren’t many results available and I don’t read Japanese, but it didn’t take any time for Wario to go from struggling in big events to a tournament winner. Until the modern era of 64, he swapped his claim to the best in Japan with Jouske almost every year until 2015, when Wario solidified his position as the best in Japan, and, probably, the world. Probably, that’s the thing. There was still a lot of crossplay between regions, but the best Smash 64 player in 2015 was still a giant question mark. The Japanese scene was respected overseas, but North America had its fair share of talent, not to mention little Peru’s budding competition. Even Brazil had some dedicated good players ready to show what they were made of. Genesis 3, in early 2016, was set to settle the score, determine who was really the best player in the beloved 1999 classic. Genesis 3 was the biggest Smash 64 tournament at the time and is arguably the game’s most important tournament of all time for its reunion between each scene’s best players. This is a blurb on Wario after all, so I bet you can guess who won. By the end of 2016, wario had answered the ever burning question: he was the best Smash 64 player in the world, and by a respectable margin. Wario hasn’t matched his 1st in 2016 since, but is still a Top 5 tournament threat when he plays, recently being the runner up at Smash Con’s 64 event this year. After swimming against the current, being ahead of his scene’s meta, and just being an incredible player, wario is highly respected among SSB fans and fans from the whole series alike, and is, undoubtedly, one of the best to ever do it. 17. Azen (Marth)] (Sheik)(Lucario)(Link) Whenever I ask people who were the two players they remembered most after watching the documentary, the same two names are usually brought up: Ken and Azen. Ken is obviously higher up on the list, but what made Azen so good? Like many of the players in this area, the Virginia player had a long, successful career. He was consistently Top 6 player, won nationals in his home state as well as abroad, you've heard this all before, I'm sure. In this blurb, I want to highlight just how much he changed the meta though. In the early days of Melee, few things were universal between scenes. Aside from the high standard of Sheik and the competition was 1v1 play, the West Coast, East Coast, Japan, Europe, everywhere conflicted on rulesets, tier lists, playstyles, hell, even the legality of items. Even in this chaos, Azen showed the world just how lethal his flagship technique was: L-cancelling. L-cancelling was always in Melee, sure, and it was a feature in Smash 64, but many players were skeptical of his utility. A different time, yeah. Azen took L-cancelling to the next level, advancing aerial pressure to a new height never seen before. And which character did he do it with? Was it his Marth? His Sheik? No, Azen popularized a universally used mechanic with Link, the shitty low tier. Yeah, he was that good. The popularity that Azen gave the technique prompted Sakurai to remove it from subsequent versions of smash. Not many can say that their advancements have risen all the way to the big man himself. I touched only briefly on Azen's career to highlight his metagame impact, but Azen had a really, really good career. Even though he played in a time when the competition wasn't as stiff as now, the skill and mastery he had over the game was matched by few. I don't know why I'm really continuing, if you really want to know more, go watch the documentary. We all know it, Azen was one of the GOATs. Two cool side notes: First, Zagenite was one of the first prolific counterpickers of smash as a whole. He usually went Marth in tournament, but especially in his first couple years competing, Sheik, Link, Peach, Falco, and more were not out of the conversation for friendlies and tournament sets. Secondly, Azen was, by a good margin, the second best Brawl player in 2008. When Brawl was released, it definitely split the community, but Azen maintained a love of both games, at least in 2008. He was wildly successful too, appearing in the Grand Finals of every tournament he competed in, so he's no type of one-trick pony Melee player as what meets the eyes. 16. PPMD (Falco)(Marth) The doctor's grand return to Melee earlier this year came with enthusiastic celebration from Melee fans and energetic, albeit confused enthusiasm from Ultimate players. But who is PPMD anyways? First known as Dr. PeePee (yes, Dr. PeePee), the North Carolinan Falco quickly ascended the ranks of his state's small scene. There, PP was kind of stuck. Good competition didn't exist for miles, especially because of the sparseness of the 2008 scene, the players in his state were several leagues of skill below him, and netplay hadn't been developed for another 6 years. What did Kevin do? He trained and he trained and he trained by his lonesome, practicing techskill, edgegaurds, and neutral whenever he could find adequate opponents. By the time the first decently sized tournament occurred in the Southeast, PPMD had already made a name for himself as one of the best players in the region. At that point it was just up to him to make that leap to godhood that many have failed in the past. Many would say that that leap to godhood happened at Pound V. Let me set the stage. All of the best Melee players including all of the gods (all four of them at this point) competed for the crown at one of the biggest tournaments in the game's history. Who made it to the Grand Finals? Legacy Mew2King, best player of the previous year, Hungrybox, ever consistent Mango? No, it was the southern Falco guy and Armada. Whoever walked away the victor would set their name upon the short list of those who have won a Melee major and did PPMD earn it. The Pound V Grand Finals is one of the greatest Melee sets ever. Not only does the gameplay still hold up today, but the atmosphere exactly lines up with the high stakes of the tournament. The set's most memorable moment, the blackout at the end of the set, can be viewed as an analogy for PPMD's career: a bright flash and then it's over. PP ended up winning Pound V, but his momentum from 2011 victory didn't last as long as you would think. By 2014, only a few years after, he started feeling the effects of his medical condition, and by 2016, he effectively stopped playing completely. Just like all short and sweet careers (think Tupac), PPMD is still hailed as one of Melee's greatest of all time. His playstyle was/is something that we haven't seen in really any other player in the past or since. It's been described like water: optimal and complete adaptiveness to the player at hand, turtling, pressure, zoning, and aggression are all fair game for him. In addition PPMD's advancements in the Falco metagame have completely changed the way people view Lombardi's matchups against floaty characters as well as developed the way Falcos complement Mango spacing lasers with precise PP style dash dancing. And lastly, with his sets against Mew2King, PPMD has advanced the Marth ditto to new heights and spacings that few have reached, mostly because the king never had an equal in Marth until PP picked up the character. And this is all in one game! PPMD's innovative game style, amazing work ethic, metagame advancements, and national wins have grown him both a large fan base for good reason, and a spot in a list of smash's most respected. See you guys tomorrow for the next five. Happy Holidays!
I have to apologise for the tardiness. Finals are a real bitch and what went from "Oh I bet I can skip today, they'll understand," quickly snowballed from there. Well, here we are, at 70 - 61. I am determined to finish the list before 2020, so expect updates to be a little more frequent, and less erratic than recently. Let's start! 70. Tyrant (Meta Knight)(Meta Knight) Meta Knight was really, really stupid in Brawl. And, let’s be honest, even though many players chose to play the character since his fast options mirrored the fast paced gameplay of Melee, a good majority of the successful Meta Knight players just played the character to stay a relevant player, having other, mid or low tiered characters as their favorite to play. Tyrant was one of the few to play Meta Knight in Brawl, and carry on his main into Smash 4, and with gusto! A familiar face in the top of Socal regionals, Tyrant ended the PGR’s first season as the world’s 22nd best player. He even won a 2GG Saga in 2015. As prolific as his Smash 4 career was, his claim to fame, and the main reason he’s on the Top 100, is the success he achieved in Brawl. I ranked himas the fifth best player in 2009, and his fellow players ranked him as the best player in Socal for all of Brawl’s history. Meta Knight loyalist and Socal veteran, Tyrant’s decade spanning career makes him a no-brainer for Top 100. 69. Fiction (Fox)(Wario)(Marth) Anyone familiar with Melee in the past year thinks two things when they think of Fiction: his Fox and his, uh, inflammatory Twitter opinions. He started his career playing Brawl as a Wario main in the game’s first few years. He has since been an outspoken critic of the game but his consistent placings in 2008 and 2009 made way for him to be a, in my opinion, Top 6 player at the time. He started playing Melee at nationals in 2013 with great success, notably finishing 7th at Apex 2014. After a few years long break in 2016 and 2017, Fiction returned in full force actually stronger than before, first competing in locals then expanding to nationals once again. When Fiction made his grand return to tournaments a little over a year ago, I was a bit skeptical. Many players who take breaks, especially with a demanding character like Fox fade into obscurity, but the Socal player returned hotter than ever. With an extremely active and vibrant 2018 and 2019, Fiction has established himself as a Top 15 level player already. Aside from his major win in 2009, Fiction’s best tournament run was at Big House 9 just last month, beating Mew2King, Wizzrobe, Plup, iBDW, and KJH only to be double eliminated by the tournament victor, Mango. 68. Kurabba (Yoshi) When smashers think of notable smash 64 Yoshi players, the multigame phenonema Wizzrobe always comes to mind. However, Japan's best rep of the character has alot to offer. Kurabba started competing in large 64 tournaments in 2015, reaching respectable levels but never hitting the quality of the immortal gods of the game above him. His “big break” finally came in 2016, when, after a few Japanese players were unable to attend, he unexpectedly became crowdfunded to play at Super Smash Con that year. There, he defied all expectations and placed 7th, becoming the second highest placing Yoshi at the event while performing better than other highly anticipated Yoshis like Prince and Tacos. Since then, hKurabba has become a permanent installation of top level 64 and the peak of results threads, maintaining top 10 status since his explosive American debut. One of his most impressive accomplishments includes his record over wario, one of the greatest 64 players of all time. He netted 5 uncontested wins in 2017 alone, and continues to be a demon to the Japanese Pikachu main to this day. 67. Zhu (Falco)(Fox) Justin Wong is an amazing FGC competitor that just happened to be on the receiving side of EVO Moment 37. Zhu isn’t in any way the JWong of smash, but he’s much more than “the guy who got wombo combod.” One of the best Falcos in the “Dark Age of Melee,” Zhu has been noted for his flashy combos with both Fox and Falco especially in his series of combo videos. He even placed 4th at the original Genesis event in 2009. Although he retired last year, Zhu has been an inspiration for a new generation of Falcos while still placing well at international events. And ok, sure, yeah, the Wombo Combo was cool too. 66. Ken (Sonic)(Sonic) Yeah, yeah yeah, it's so funny that there's two Kens in the Top 100, get your laughs out now, but Japanese Ken’s career wasn’t that bad. While Abadango, Ranai and Komorikiri were traveling in the states to moderate success, the general opinion of the Japanese on the islands was that Ken was the best Japanese player. Many North American players doubted the Sonic’s actual strength before he started achieving great results in America and played toe to toe with Mkleo. He only gained momentum from his first American tournament, EVO 2016, and eventually peaked 8th in the PGR in the second half of 2017 with admiration internationally and abroad. Throughout 2016, 2017, and 2018, Ken's optimal Sonic play earned him great wins on pretty much every Japanese and American player, with the exception of the infamous ZeRo. While I personally don't agree with the PGR 100 placing him 9th greatest Smash 4 player of all time, Ken’s consistent results in an underrated region and solid results in the state lead me to giving him the nod for the Top 100. 65. Fly Amanita (Ice Climbers) For Melee and Brawl players, the simple mention of “Ice Climbers” can leave groans and tainted memories at their locals or online of the merciless duo. With Ice Climbers, Fly Amanita adopted a new form of the traditionally lame character that, instead of endlessly irritating spectators, shocked them with creative freestyles. Unlike many of the most successful Ice Climbers players, Fly Amanita never mastered wobbling, preferring to use flashier handoffs to finish opponents. Fly Amanita was more than just a champion of creative Ice Climbers play: he was a damn good player. Considered by many to be a Top 10 player in 2010 and 2011 as well as an international threat in following years, Fly Amanita became a name to fear and respect in Socal and on the evergrowing smashboards scene. He has since retired in pursuit of higher education, but his tireless efforts to make Ice Climbers cool again ™ have inspired a new generation of Icies players to follow his lead in Socal and beyond. 64. Marss (Zero Suit Samus)(Zero Suit Samus)(Ike)(Mega Man) This Zero Suit specialist has jumped from his 2018 ranking, and for good reason. In one of, if not the most competitive year in tournament smash history, he has established himself as a consistent Top 5 player and ZSS figurehead. Before his international success, Marss was known for his lax dress style and hidden boss status in both Brawl and Smash 4. By the time he attended his first national, Genesis 3, he was well known in New England/Tristate circles. After placing 7th beating Mr. Concon, Earth, Hyuga, and Komorikiri, he gained the respect of the whole community. As good as he played in Smash 4, Marss leaped in skill when Ultimate dropped. Since last December, the New Englander has been infamous for transforming traditionally offensive Zero Suit Samus to an impregnable defensive wall, as well as his competitive record with MkLeo. Ending out Smash 4 as the 16th greatest player and securing his status as Top 5 in Ultimate, Marss has a great career ahead of him, as well as an impressive string of accomplishments in the past. 63. S2J (Captain Falcon) A fan-favorite since his first tournament in 2009 (even before the release of Brawl!), S2J has been Johnny-stocking our favorite Socal spacies for over 10 years now. The man of few words started playing Melee in a time devoid of a strong, dominant, and consistent Falcon player to look up to, as Darkrain faltered in results after 2009. By evolving his style with the constantly changing meta, he has become that very Falcon main. Along with being the highest ranked Captain Falcon main for four years, his peak global rank was 9th this very summer, demonstrating that his best year are ahead of him. By mixing the campy and techchase heavy style of Wizzrobe and the aggressive, read heavy style of n0ne, S2J keeps his opponents on their toes, usually leading into destructive 0-deaths that become the headlines of everyone’s favorite Melee combo videos, albeit with mixed results during edgegaurds. Flashy combos, Falcon punches, that famous set against Lord, and consistent placements for over a decade, S2J has more than earned his spot on the Top 100. 62. Ruoka Dancho (Captain Falcon) I can guarantee that 90% of the people reading this post have never heard of this player. Clickbaity intro or not, during his prime Ruoka Dancho was one of the most highly regarded old school Smash 64 players, easily on the level of legends like Moyashi, Kikoushi, and wario. His Captain Falcons great results make me consider him a Top 10 SSB player for five years. Although he stepped out of spotlight from winning tournaments in 2011, he remained a threat in the scene until his retirement in 2015. Whether terrorizing the brackets of old school 64, or challenging the very best at American nationals, Ruoka Dancho is undoubtedly one of the smash series’ bests. 61. Masashi (Pit)(Cloud)(Fox)(Cloud) Many of these players here are featured on the list for their numerous accomplishments in in one game. However, as you know, this list rewards players that have been successes in multiple games as well. Possibly, no other player benefits from this more than Masashi. Take a look at this. In the PGR 100, he is ranked the 90th greatest Smash 4 player of all time. In Pikachu492 and EdwinBudding’s work the “Greatest Melee Players of All Time”, he’s ranked the 46th greatest Melee player of all time. And in my unreleased Greatest Brawl Players of All Time, I ranked him as the 24th greatest Brawl player of all time. If that wasn’t enough, he’s even ranked the 27th best Ultimate player in Japan, even over respected Shulk main Kome. You can probably tell that this man has a love for smash. From his first tournament in 2005 to competing just last month, he’s been a force to be reckoned with and active player since the same summer that Mew2King started playing. Like any great player, he has had highs and lows, and his most prominent high was his domination of Japanese Brawl tournaments in 2010 with a mid tier, Pit. Masashi’s sheer, raw skill helped him overcome against opponents with characters that simply outclassed his, even against rival 9B, now considered to be the greatest Japanese Brawl player to ever live. Five years prior to that, Captain Jack even hailed him as the best Melee player in Japan. Keep your eyes open and you can even catch him playing with Ken and Isai in the Melee documentary at 1:37:46. Thanks for reading and the patience. See you guys soon for 60 - 51 as we near closer to the Top 50.
Evaluating the "Conspiracy Mentality" of the ASOIAF Fandom
Read this essay by Duncan Hubber, originally published nearly two years ago, a long while back on Tower of the Hand and when looking again today to see if anything new had been published I was reminded of its existence! He does such a great job breaking down the conspiracies within the text itself, as well as juxtaposing them to ours in the fandom as well. Just wanted to share for those who haven’t read it and see what all y’all might think, or even just inspire some great threads! Also Tower of the Hand is full of a bunch of other great essays from a variety of writers. Check it out! Here’s the original with more links included, it also has some pretty pictures. If you don’t have an account and set your spoiler scope already you’ll have to click on that tab and do so to see the content as a visitor. Evaluating the "Conspiracy Mentality" of the ASOIAF Fandom. There is a rich tradition of conspiracy theorising in A Song of Ice and Fire, practiced by both its characters and its readers. Through his use of point-of-view chapters, author George R. R. Martin demonstrates how nothing is as it seems on the surface, and every character harbours their own unique set of goals and agendas. I'm hard-pressed to think of another series with as many unresolved mysteries as ASOIAF, or with a fanbase as relentless in solving all of them. Theorycrafting is a fascinating and enjoyable enterprise which often adds new layers to the text. The first great mystery of the story - who is Jon Snow's mother? - is an excellent example of this effect, as its potential answer forces us to re-evaluate our perception of various characters and past events, and offers us clues regarding the future of the books. Martin cultivates this "conspiracy mentality" in several ways. Firstly, he demonstrates the disjunction between individual characters' perspectives of events and the version of history propagated by those in power. The events which incite the War of the Five Kings exemplify this narrative clash. In book one (A Game of Thrones), the reader follows Ned Stark as he uncovers the bastardry of Queen Cersei's children and his subsequent attempts to secure control of the capital so that power can be transferred to the deceased king's brother Stannis Baratheon. Unfortunately, Ned is betrayed by the crown's treasurer Petyr Baelish and imprisoned in the black cells, where he is forced by Cersei (out of fear for his daughters' lives) to confess to trying to overthrow the lawful king Joffrey and usurp power for himself. This confession, which is followed by his unanticipated execution, is witnessed by the citizens of King's Landing and supports the royal proclamation of House Stark's treachery and Joffrey's legitimacy. This is a quintessential example of a conspiracy - an illegal or harmful act carried out by members of government or other powerful actors for their own ends, which they attempt to keep secret - and it is the premise for the entire series. Anyone who challenges the official account of King's Landing, such as Stannis Baratheon, would be proposing a conspiracy theory. Tellingly, when Stannis does issue letters across the Seven Kingdoms declaring Joffrey's illegitimacy, Cersei and the small council do not merely deny his charge, but attack Stannis' credibility with their own conspiracy theory - that his daughter Shireen is actually the illegitimate one, fathered by his court fool Patchface. ASOIAF is overflowing with such treachery, from assassinations and blackmail, to vast clandestine plots against the social order. It's important to note that the example given above is the only conspiracy in which we are largely privy to all of the facts; that is, we are given perspectives from all of the main participants - Ned, Jaime and Cersei - and it's reasonably clear where the truth ends and the lies begin; although, even then we can only guess to what extent characters like Baelish, Varys, Pycelle, or persons unknown played a role. Most of the other conspiracies in the series are only half-glimpsed or occur beyond the gaze of our point-of-view characters. For instance, the death of Jon Arryn and the failed assassination of Bran Stark are major mysteries throughout the first book. Ned and Catelyn Stark theorise that they were the results of a Lannister conspiracy and proceed on that basis; however, by the end of the third book (A Storm of Swords), after both characters are dead, it is revealed that this assumption was incorrect, that Baelish and Lysa Arryn were responsible for the former Hand's death and neither Cersei nor Jaime had anything to do with the second attempt on Bran's life. Thus, Martin presents a world very much like our own - conspiracy theories are not inherently irrational, since conspiracies do occur and some theories are proven correct (see: the Watergate, Iran-Contra, and NSA phone-tapping scandals); but most conspiracy theories are lacking information, contain false information, distort information to suit their conclusions, or are based on unsound reasoning, and acting on such theories can be profoundly destructive - both to people's lives and to the epistemology we use to understand the world. Another way that Martin foregrounds the theme of conspiracy throughout ASOIAF is by showing characters' day-to-day lives as they plot against others and attempt to calculate and counteract the plots directed at them. This is most apparent in King's Landing, where all of the noble families are feverishly vying for political advantage. However, the mindset is prevalent across every political theatre of the series and even between members of the same family. Tyrion Lannister engages in a battle of manipulation and sabotage with his sister Cersei throughout book two (A Clash of Kings), with each sibling attempting to weed out the others' spies, pilfer the others' sellswords and secure the others' secrets as blackmail. It produces a suffocating sense of paranoia which plagues the two characters for the rest of the books. Even after Tyrion has fled across the narrow sea, Cersei is convinced he is still hiding in the walls of the Red Keep, plotting her downfall; she sends guards into the tunnels to track him down and burns down the Tower of the Hand in vain effort to expel the fear. Likewise, while travelling across Essos, Tyrion remains disguised and wary of every set of eyes that pass over him lest they belong to hunters responding to Cersei's bounty. The siblings have reoccurring nightmares about their reunion, and disturbingly, fantasise about the ways they would like to torture each other. To quote Nirvana: "Just because you're paranoid, don't mean they're not after you." Tyrion and Cersei are perhaps the most psychologically damaged by this "conspiracy mentality", but all of Martin's characters experience it, and the closer they get to power, the more vividly they feel its effect. Even a character like Ned - who hated the duplicitous nature of the "game of thrones" - was forced to become a conspirator in order to avoid being the victim of a conspiracy (alas, too little, too late). Metatextually, this writing style instils in the reader a profound scepticism - it teaches us to distrust whatever non-POV characters say or how things appear, and to scrutinise every encounter for clues on what people's true motivations and ultimate goals might be. It teaches us to approach every disaster with the question: who benefits most from this? Political editor Jesse Walker has identified five categories of conspiracy theory, each of which refers to a different type of conspirator. The "Enemy Outside" alludes to figures scheming against a community from without it, while the "Enemy Within" alludes to schemers lurking inside the community, indistinguishable from ordinary citizens. From the Starks' perspective, the Lannisters would be the external enemy working against the north, while the Boltons would be the internal enemy, harming it from within. However, if we extend the definition of "community" to the Seven Kingdoms, with Robert Baratheon as its legal ruler, then the Lannisters would be regarded as an internal enemy, while figures like Illyrio Mopatis, Khal Drogo, Mance Rayder, and Jon Connington would be regarded as external enemies. The "Enemy Above" involves the upper classes manipulating society for their own gain, while the "Enemy Below" involves the lower classes working to overturn the social order. There are countless instances throughout the series of the powerful abusing and exploiting the powerless. Tywin Lannister ordering the sacking of the riverlands and Mace Tyrell suspending grain shipments to King's Landing are two obvious examples which lead to the suffering of many in return for the self-interest of a few. The conspiracy from below is a less common phenomenon in Westeros, but is evident in the later books, almost as a direct result of the conspiracies of the powerful; for example, the Brotherhood Without Banners raids and thieves from Lannister and Stark soldiers in order to replenish the devastated resources of the riverlands smallfolk. Likewise, in book four (A Feast for Crows), the septon known as the High Sparrow is able to galvanise the disenfranchised rural and urban peasants in a religious uprising against the corrupt aristocracy of King's Landing. Along with the pressures of politics, Martin also depicts metaphysical conspiracies at work in the story, which take the form of dreams, visions and prophecies. Most of the main characters have experienced such spectacles, either while sleeping or during states of mental alteration; instances include Daenerys Targaryen drinking shade-of-the-evening and entering the psychedelic House of the Undying, or a marooned, dehydrated Davos Seaworth hearing the Mother chastise him. Some characters, such as Melisandre of Asshai and the Ghost of High Heart, claim to be able to receive information about the future from a divine being or beings. The nature of such visions is highly ambiguous, and often produces more questions than answers. For example, one of Undying visions Dany witnesses is of a naked woman being assaulted by four small rodent-like men. Most readers have interpreted this not as a literal event, but as an allegory for the War of the Five Kings, with the woman symbolising Westeros being ravaged by the four remaining claimants. Conversely, another vision shows a dining hall filled with corpses seated around a dead man with a wolf's head. This seems to be a literal glimpse at the aftermath of the Red Wedding, albeit with some figurative flourishes (that is, Robb was probably taken elsewhere to have Grey Wind's head sewn on). In book three, the Ghost of High Heart recalls a vision of a girl resembling Sansa Stark, who "slay[s] a savage giant in a castle built of snow." The readership is hesitant whether this vision has been fulfilled or not (in a later chapter, Sansa dismembers a toy giant whose owner ruined her snow castle), or whether it is still pending in some grander form. In book five (A Dance with Dragons), the shadowbinder Quaithe warns Dany that the "griffin" and the "mummer's dragon" are coming to treat with her, only for Tyrion to convince Jon Connington to travel to Westeros directly instead. This error suggests that visions are not inevitable, but are closer to educated guesses based on current circumstances; they are weather reports, if you will, storms gathering and dispersing to the flaps of some butterfly on Naath. Melisandre, however, would vehemently disagree with these misgivings, asserting that the prophecy of Azor Ahai reborn is the only truth in existence. Yet, even if this is the case, it seems possible that she has blundered in her selection of candidate. Samwell Tarly and Maester Aemon both notice that while Stannis' sword glows, it emits no heat. What's interesting is that Melisandre's point-of-view chapter in book five shows no awareness of this self-delusion, and she is genuinely baffled that her nightfires show her visions of Jon Snow, rather than Stannis. Like a bad conspiracy theorist, she has become stuck in a pattern of ignoring or faking evidence in order to suit her conclusion. To the reader's privileged gaze, Daenerys' fiery dragon-hatching rebirth seems to fulfil the criteria of Azor Ahai far more convincingly than Stannis or Jon; yet while our field of knowledge might exceed Melisandre's or any one character in the series, it is vital to remember that we too are still missing huge gaps. We cannot grow careless of what a former Secretary of Defence called the "unknown unknowns." Dreams are related to visions in the sense that they often provide characters with metaphysical insights into the world beyond their frame of experience or knowledge. Some characters are more sensitive to the spirit world than others, particularly characters who have been close to death, like Bran and Patchface. Like the images Dany encounters in the House of the Undying, Bran's greendreams reveal allegorical visions of future events, such as the surprise attack on Winterfell by the ironborn. Most of the Stark children have a strong spiritual connection with their direwolves; at various points, they are also able to look through the animal's eyes (and sometimes other animals) to acquire extrasensory knowledge about the world. For example, while warging into Ghost, Jon is able to sense that Shaggydog is alive and fighting with a large, horned goat; these warg dreams plant a stubborn notion in Jon's head that his younger brothers are still alive, while the reader is able to extrapolate further and deduce that Rickon is currently on the isle of Skagos. That said, it is noteworthy that most dreams in the series are not necessarily depicted as metaphysical insights, but rather insights into a character's subconscious. For example, in book two, Theon has a nightmare in which he is dining at a table of dead people, when a bloodied Robb Stark staggers into the hall; this has been seen by some as vision of the Red Wedding (which Theon's capture of Winterfell helps facilitate); however, it could just as likely be a symbolic expression of Theon's guilt at having betrayed his foster brother. This is not to suggest that the subconscious is a shallow vein for divulging conspiracies or mysteries. Ned Stark rarely thinks of the circumstances of his sister Lyanna's kidnapping by Rhaegar Targaryen; yet, after being attacked by Jaime Lannister, his fever dreams include a hazy recollection of his arrival at the Tower of Joy, which etches a counter-narrative to the one propagated by Robert Baratheon. Likewise, Tyrion's conscious memories of his former wife Tysha are profoundly painful to him, yet the subconscious memories he has of her while recovering from the Battle of Blackwater are marked by a sense of warmth and safety; they contradict the version of their relationship that Tywin forced upon him (and on her). From the reader's perspective, it seems that prophecies are just vague enough that they can be interpreted and manipulated to fit almost any theory. Certainly, several of the visions in the House of the Undying contain truth, but this only becomes apparent after the events in question have occurred. And what about the visions that haven't materialised, or that have been diverted, or that were visions of the past, or visions of an alternate reality? What about the visions that were just by-products of Dany's drug-addled mind? One can't help but question whether prophecies serve any practical use for the characters or the readers. Nevertheless, the fandom has spent countless hours parsing through all of the metaphysical flotsam and jetsam of the series in an effort to make sense of each character's destiny. These phenomena would fall under the fifth category identified by Jesse Walker - the "Benevolent" (or Malevolent) Conspiracy - in that they refer a conspiracy of divine forces, such as gods, spirits, supernatural beings or actors, who work behind the scenes to shape the lives of mortals. It is a kind of epistemology which our modern minds would regard as incredible and irrational. Nevertheless, for Martin, it is a dimension of reality which cannot be ignored; this is not to say he ever confirms the existence of a god or gods in his world, but that the various (often competing) religious factions attempt to articulate a spiritual or metaphysical facet which, for the characters, is as real as the seasons. Conspiracy theories are very appealing to people and have become increasingly popular in recent decades. Professor Brian Keeley argues that: "The desire to believe in conspiracy theories as an extension of the human urge to find meaning in our lives and the world around us. These theories, however outlandish, at least provide comforting explanations for otherwise unexplainable or random events." Political scientist Michael Barkun notes that many people have rejected the official explanation of John F. Kennedy's assassination, simply because they find it intolerable that a president could be killed and a nation brought to a halt by one pathetic loner with a gun. Such momentous distress must be the result of an equally momentous conspiracy. Comparatively, it was unthinkable to Cersei (and the reader) that King Joffrey would simply choke to death on a piece of pie at his own wedding. How could such a devastating war be fought to keep him on the throne, only for him to die such a random, meaningless death? Cersei claims that Tyrion is responsible, while other characters believe it was punishment by the gods; most readers assume that it was the work of Lord Baelish and a few members of the Tyrell family. A lot of bad things happen in the War of the Five Kings - people die from battle, plunder, starvation, disease, poisoning, and execution, all in service to a set of kings who are also dead by the end of the third book. A theory of organised evil is preferable to a reign of chaos, because at least organised evil can be identified and confronted. The only thing more terrifying than a sinister figure scheming in the shadows or a dark lord plotting in a tower is the thought that no one is in control. The combination of the series' "conspiracy mentality" and the ability to disseminate information and speculation across the internet has helped foster a vibrant theorycrafting culture in the ASOIAF fandom. According to this Angelfire page, the theory that Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark was established as early as 2000 (and probably earlier). Many other primary theories have been proven correct, such as Renly and Loras being lovers; Joffrey being murdered and Tyrion being framed for it; Stannis going to the Wall to help fight the Others; Jeyne Poole being forced into prostitution and playing the role of "fake Arya"; baby Aegon being smuggled out of King's Landing before it was sacked; and Varys plotting to restore a Targaryen to the Iron Throne (although these last two points are still in contention, given the Blackfyre theory). However, as this pre-ACOK chatlog shows, many fan theories have not born out or were abandoned with subsequent books. Message boards like Westeros.org and Tower of the Hand, and subforums on Reddit and Tumblr are teaming with debates about existing theories and newly-introduced theories. On YouTube, the most-viewed ASOIAF videos are theory-based (with character and thematic analysis a distant second). Ironically, these videos share the same platform - and often the same presenting style and search suggestions - as real-world conspiracy theories, such as the "Fake Moon Landing" theory. It is of course unfair to compare ASOIAF theory videos with real-world conspiracy theories, since the latter deals with history, while the former deals with fiction. Fiction is by definition calculated and controlled by an author. Martin is clearly presenting us with mysteries and conflicting accounts of history, and encouraging us to interrogate the text and collate the information into something closer to the truth. From a metatextual perspective, the author is the ultimate conspirator, the ultimate manipulator, working behind the scenes for a specific end. But Martin at least wants us to think critically about this process, and maybe even glimpse part of that end before it arrives. What is fascinating about ASOIAF is that the fandom has grown so large and diverse that there are now multiple competing theories responding to the same events, mysteries and visions. Indeed, fans seek answers to mysteries that initially weren't even identified as mysteries, such as who engineered the King's Landing bread riots or the true identity of the High Sparrow. Remember, conspiracy is preferable to chaos. In my opinion, this is all a result of the agonising wait between books, particularly for The Winds of Winter, which has left the main characters hanging from the edge of a cliff for almost seven years. As members of a fandom, we're all fanatical to a point, and such a gaping lack of payoff is enough to drive anyone mad. Indeed, many fan theories, intentionally or unintentionally, resemble the ramblings of Dragonstone's court fool (see: the time-travelling foetus theory). Such theories are lovingly referred to as "crackpot" or "tinfoil" theories, evoking the conspiracy theorist who wraps himself in aluminium to prevent the government (or aliens) from controlling their thoughts. In accordance with Poe's Law, it's usually impossible to separate genuine theories from theories devised purely for amusement. For example, the Grand Merling Conspiracy is inventive and affectionately re-shared across the fandom, but I would be very surprised if any readers actually believed Varys is the harbinger of an underwater fish kingdom. In this way, theorycrafting can function like a form of fanfiction, giving us the ability to generate new material out of old content, to play with the text and renew its well-worn facets. Positing future events is the closest thing fans have to glimpsing the contents of a book we so fiendishly crave. It has fostered an interactive, competitive and energetic spirit in the fandom, even at a point when there hasn't been anything new to discuss in seven years (if you exclude the TV show and The World of Ice & Fire). However, I also think that the longer the "long night" has dragged on, the more outlandish and dogmatic some of this speculating has become. There are theories formerly derided as "crackpot" which are now passionately argued and have gained increasing acceptance by many fans. Chief amongst them is an opposing theory to R+L=J (that is, Rhaegar+Lyanna=Jon) championed by popular YouTubers like Preston Jacobs. This theory posits that Rhaegar and Lyanna did not give birth to a son, but rather to a daughter. This child, Daenerys, was transported in secret to Dragonstone, possibly with the help of Ned and House Dayne, where she was swapped with the stillborn child of King Aerys and Queen Rhaella. Or alternatively, she was reunited with their son Viserys sometimes afterwards. This theory contains a lot of wild speculation; however it can be whittled down to two main arguments:
Firstly, Dany's memories of her childhood seem impossible. She recalls growing up in a House with a Red Door in Braavos, under the care of Ser Willem Darry. She often thinks wistfully about running through green fields, the smell of perfume, and playing next to a lemon tree. However, when Arya Stark travels to Braavos in book four, she describes a rainy, foggy metropolis comprised of a hundred islands linked by stone bridges. The city smells of salt and brine, and there are no trees to be found anywhere. There are also a number of passages throughout the books which indicate that citrus trees only grow in temperate regions such as Dorne and the southern free cities. These contradiction cast doubt on Dany's early life, suggesting that Viserys lied to her about the two growing up in Braavos. When the lemon tree question was put to Martin, he replied that it was a good insight into future revelations.
Secondly, when King Robert orders the assassination of Daenerys, Ned thinks back to the promise Lyanna asks of him, a promise he considers broken. This doesn't make sense, because if Jon is Lyanna's son, then he is still safe, and the promise hasn't been broken.
While I agree that the "lemon tree" memory is an intriguing anomaly in the story (although it's possible she simply grew up in the Braavosian Coastlands), I think it takes an absurd leap to arrive at Dany being the daughter of Rhaegar and Lyanna. It's definitely good to have alternate theories, because we shouldn't become too complacent and assume R+L=J is a fact, but R+L=D just makes zero sense to me, logically or narratively. However, I've already argued against this theory elsewhere, so I won't belabour the point. What I am interested in is the metatextual arguments for this theory - namely, that R+L=J can't be true, because it is too obvious. I would retort that, at face value, the obvious answer to the question of Jon's parentage is Ashara Dayne or the wetnurse Wylla, because these are the candidates explicitly mentioned in the text. The first time I read the series, R+L=J never even occurred to me. It was only after I started talking with other fans online that I became aware of this theory. One thing I think we need to keep in mind is that when Martin started writing these books, the internet wasn't as big a factor in people's lives. In 1996, there was no Wiki of Ice and Fire or Westeros.org; readers had to solve these mysteries on their own. The internet has changed the way we engage with the books, mostly for the good, because it allows readers to share a multitude of interpretation and collaborate with each other; but I also think it can rob us of the solitary detective work that Martin had originally assumed. R+L=J may seem obvious now, but I'm willing to bet most people reading the series in the 90s and early 2000s were unaware of it, and that the majority of us wouldn't have figured it out without fan sites and discussion forums. Nowadays, Game of Thrones fans don't even need to read the books - they can just go directly to the Vulture article listing the 50 biggest fan theories of ASOIAF. All of the hard work is done, and thus it seems like these established theories comprise an official account, a popular belief, a conventional wisdom - the very things that inspire scepticism in every conspiracy theorist. I think we have lived with R+L=J for so long that we have grown restless with it. One can't help but wonder if R+L=D is doomed to the same fate, and some other contrarian theory will eventually be proffered to replace it; not because new evidence has emerged (how could it - there hasn't been a new book since 2011), but because the surface cannot be trusted, and like Ramsay Bolton we peel off another layer of flesh, continually searching for the unfiltered truth beneath. This is a unique point in the story and the fandom. We're much closer to the end than the beginning, and yet there is far enough to go that it still feels like anything is possible. Many of the biggest theories remain in play, and so the fan debates will rage on for nights to come. But after the final book has dropped (George willing), that will cease to be the case. Most of these theories will die ignoble deaths, and with the object of their quarry tamed, most fans will retire the hunt and move on to greener pastures. There's something ephemeral and bittersweet about that. Although there is of course the equally likely fate that we never get an ending and will remain trapped in this citrus-scented purgatory forevermore. Scepticism is a valuable tool, especially in an age bombarded with information from so many unreliable sources. The danger, I suppose, is being unable to accept the truth when we're finally faced with it.
My experience with notorious con man Barry Minkow. (reposting from a couple years back since the movie finally came out last month).
TLDR: “Reformed” Con Man Barry Minkow used stolen funds from his church parishioners while a pastor in San Diego to fund a feature film about his redemption. Before the film was completed Minkow was sentenced twice to prison for a myriad of crimes and ordered over half a billion dollars in restitution. I saw it all unfold in real time. Sorry for the length, but this has been a story I've wanted to tell - from my point of view - for a very long time. I'm hoping it has enough astonishing angles, characters and subplots to keep your interest. So, without further ado: In early 2009, I was hired by Insomnia Media Group (or IMG) to transform a 250-page transcript into a feature length screenplay. IMG was gearing up to produce the life story of Barry J. Minkow. In the coming months Mark Hamill, Ving Rhames, James Caan, Talia Shire and Armand Assante would come on board to star. There were rumors in the Universal Studios based production offices that Tom Hanks was interested in Minkow’s story. And why wouldn’t he be? Minkow was a reformed con man, a rehabilitated swindler who in 1982 at just fifteen years of age started a carpet cleaning empire called “ZZZZ Best.” A few years later, he was the youngest person in United States history to ever stage a successful stock offering. Before he could legally take a sip of alcohol he was worth $100 million and his company was worth three times that. But it was all empty paper. He had perpetrated one of the largest ponzi schemes of all time. No ponzi scheme was bigger until Bernie Madoff. So, nearly seven years later, where’s the movie? It was shot, it went through post-production, it’s “in the can,” as they say in the film business… but good luck finding a copy. And where’s Barry Minkow now? Where he should be, back in prison. After filming his movie, he has had to stand in front of a U.S. court and plead guilty – twice – for various crimes. This is the story of a man who in trying to tell the tale of his redemption, brought about it his biggest downfall. On March 12th, 2011, Pastor Barry Minkow gave a sermon titled "End Times" at his church in Mira Mesa, a suburb of San Diego. In this sermon he mentioned that one sign of the end of days would involve "greedy preachers" and "false prophets" who would "cleverly teach destructive heresies and… bring sudden distraction of themselves." Three days later Minkow had to resign as head pastor of Community Bible Church after agreeing to a guilty plea of insider trading. Barry's recent fall from grace and his storied past are presented in articles all over the nation. Bloomberg, The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal have all covered the insider trading, all have mentioned his fantastical teenage crimes. I was even used as a source in an incredibly detailed article by Roger Parloff in Fortune magazine. It’s the type of news that sells: the reformed con man slips again. The fallen angel, who already wore crooked wings, destroys the life he spent fifteen years trying to rebuild. But there's another side to the saga of Barry Minkow, one not immediately found in the pages of the Times or the Journal, one even glossed over in the Fortune expose. It revolves around the man's fulfillment in telling his own Hollywood tale of redemption. He was the star, he was the executive producer and he was the eight hundred pound gorilla in the room making all the decisions. Minkow spent at least four million of other people’s dollars making a movie about his own life. What news outlets fail to mention is that Barry helped fund this film by stealing from his own parishioners, as well as shorting the stocks of companies he called out for fraud. Using his organization, the for-profit ‘Fraud Discovery Institute,’ Minkow would go after large corporations he felt were involved in fraudulent behavior. He even lectured about fraud at Quantico for the FBI. You could hire his LLC to uncover wrongdoings and syphon the bad from the good businesses, using Barry’s expertise. He uncovered high profile cases, his clients received large settlements and the company itself was very profitable - after all, Barry had millions of dollars in restitution still due, even after he was released from prison for his ZZZZ Best scam. Then came the unusually warm summer of 2009. Minkow drove around the backlots of Universal in his rented golf cart, chewing sloppily on cigars and carrying a bible-thick wad of money in his pants. He was the big dog on campus, watching over the production chronicling his life. The first half was Barry's version of the 80s scam with actor Justin Baldoni of Jane the Virgin, portraying a young Barry. It was always a battle with how much Minkow allowed Baldoni and the tale of 80s corruption on screen. That part of his life bored him already. It of course had to be told, but he would never let it be the original two-thirds length it was in the first draft of the screenplay. He wanted to spend as much time as possible on his conversion, redemption and the new fight-white-collar-crime life he now led, no matter how many wild liberties he suggested taking in the areas of creative license. He wanted to dominate as much of the film as possible, behind the cameras as well as in front of them. The second half of that Tom Hanks rumor went like this: America’s greatest everyman had loved the project and told Barry he wanted to be in it. "Great!" Minkow said. "Who do you want to be?" "Well," the two-time Oscar winner replied, "I want to be you." To which, according to gossip, Barry politely responded: "No, thank you. I'm playing myself." Whether that happened or no, once thing was certain. It was very important to Barry that the story get told a certain right way. Not necessarily the right way, just his way. Minkow temporarily fired the director of the film when he shot the sentencing scene on a day Barry couldn't be on set and used Baldoni, as was both scripted and scheduled. "But, I don't understand, that's what happened," the director lobbied, "You can’t play a 21-year-old version of yourself." The 44-year-old Barry was incensed; "We could just say that I was sentenced a few years later. I have to be in that scene!" His argument was that people needed to see his contrition during the sentencing. By that late into the production, I had a clear idea of who Barry actually was. Robert Pine, who played the judge in that sequence had worked with me a few years prior on my first feature. He asked me, “So ,what’s the real deal with this guy?” My answer was hushed and out the side of my mouth, but that really was the question surrounding this preposterous individual: What’s the real deal with this guy? The screenplay was all revisionist history. It didn’t start off that way, but Minkow introduced the idea of revisions for seemingly altruistic reasons. Being a Pastor and answering to a large community, Barry couldn't show the extremes of his earlier tale. The swearing and mentions of using prostitutes? Had to come out of the script. The scene where he was snorting cocaine off his chemistry book and the very next day shooting D.A.R.E campaigns… that had to come out too (I didn’t even write in the story about how during a business meeting, when he was eighteen years old, he pulled his penis out of his pants and slapped it on the desk opposite a female employee to make a point). But later, it wasn't just the offensive items that would have displeased his congregation which were ordered removed, anything that wasn't shown with rose colored glasses had to change in tone or risk being pulled from the screenplay altogether. It became a PG watered down version of the actual brash and brazen story of the kid tycoon from Reseda. The kid who went on The Oprah Winfrey Show, who made the covers of national magazines and was heralded by media outlets as the “Whiz Kid” and the “Wonder Boy.” Back then he was everywhere and just the same, his media attention was equally ubiquitous when he was sentenced and jailed. For many con men, that was where their story would end, but not for Barry. Because then the man found Jesus. It's very possible that his conversion was real. In one ad-libbed moment on set, Barry Minkow playing his incarcerated self, leapt from a weight lift bench and pointed a stern finger at actor Ving Rhames. "My conversion is not a con!" Maybe it wasn't, as saddened and no doubt embarrassed as Community Bible Church was in having to report their head pastor would be stepping down, they stated their appreciation for his 14-years of faithful service to the church. But after recent events, we can only imagine that it was a con and the ‘maybe’ might just be an unlikely victim of that 14-year fraud, Barry himself. When you sit down at a restaurant to meet with the man, he'll command the table and tell very colorful stories and lace bible quotes and scripture passages into his anecdotes. He never fails to mention to the pretty waitress as she laughs at one of his jokes that she shouldn't trust him, because he's an ex con man and convicted felon. It's a self-depreciation that permeates almost every conversation and sermon. It's one of the reasons I liked him. When first pitched the Barry Minkow story, I fell in love with it. It was a hard-edged version of Catch Me If You Can. At 16-years-old he was making more money than his parents. He would routinely fire his father in front of other employees, demanding in the spectacle that he "pull his weight" or he'd be gone. In fact, he required that his father call him Mr. Minkow. In his heyday, Barry talked seriously about making a $30 million bid for the Seattle Mariners. He once brought a foot long gold bar to show classmates in high school. One story after another was so incredible and grandiose by the time I finished my first day of research I was practically salivating. And it just kept coming… Barry's first startup was put together by swapped jewelry he had stolen from his grandmother. Later he acquired the capital for expansion from a drug dealer. In fact, Los Angeles police chief Daryl Gates started the public suspicion of ZZZZ Best by announcing in a news conference that it was the LAPD’s belief the entire carpet company empire was a giant drug money-laundering machine. Another appealing aspect was the fact it was set in the 1980s, the "greed is good" era. It's a decade America can look back on now, especially during these times, to see where that greed led us. The first half of his story could so easily relate to what steered us to our recent financial problems and the later part could mirror the reparations we continue to exercise in order to mend the country. And finally, like Frank Abignale or rather Stephen Glass, what I loved about the story was not only how the house of cards was built, but how rapidly it came crashing down and what happened to the man while he was standing underneath it. So I told the powers at IMG I would do it under one stipulation, I didn't want to meet Barry until after finishing the first draft. The reason was because I didn't want to know if he wasn't who he said he was. I didn't want that possible information to contaminate my first pass at the story. And so I avoided contact with him until after I’d written the purported truth, in case the reformed preacher angle was… well, just a bunch of bullshit. He left messages for me and sent emails, wondering why I wouldn't talk with him. A month later I met Barry for the first time during a table read at one of the producer's homes. Introducing myself, he then shook my hand and said, "Oh you're the writer? I should punch you in the face." It was a clear joke and as uncomfortable as he could be to watch sometimes with his nervous ticks, stutters and idiosyncrasies, it was easy to buy into his reform. At least for a while. Then the rewrites began. With Barry now involved, all notions of composing a grand, operatic parable began to fade. Pieces I first grew excited about were exercised entirely. I kept telling Barry that we needed to see the real version of the bad in order to believe the reality of his change. There was no buying into the redemption if we didn’t truly witness the totality of his transgressions. I understood the rating issues, his audience in the Christian or Family Films department could be huge - but that wasn't the version I thought I was on board for. It started becoming too campy, trite and wasn't honoring the truth behind the story. That's what first caused me to doubt the final product. More than that, it's what caused me to begin to have doubts about the man. But I remained on set every day, because days weren't being made and rewrites were needed to keep production on schedule. Yet production only further exemplified a slow-boiling delusion where rewritten scenes from his life were being put to page using selective facts, denial and sometimes complete fabrication. While rewriting the ending a few days from shooting, the idea for the climax turned so vapid and hackneyed, I was worried that my face was making sounds every time I winced. When he pitched the ending that ended up being filed, it was like listening to your inappropriate Uncle who uninvited, still got up to give a eulogy and talked about the ‘dead hooker in Vegas’ story. Barry was resting an elbow on a bouncing knee while leaning over his chair. The producer and myself were running on coffee and Starbursts. "When I show up to catch Derek Lewis in the final scam,” he said, “his body guards can steal the money he's brought for my clients and they make a run for it. Then, I'll chase them! I can chase after the money to show just how far I'll go to defend the innocent!" What had originally drawn me to the story - the full arc of the Barry Minkow character - was quickly becoming a sagging line. However, being on set throughout production did provide me with something very valuable. The downtime in-between rewrites gave me an opportunity to do something I had never been able to do on a film set before… merely observe. I watched and I listened and as the story I had originally helped tell kept changing into something unrecognizable, another story began to take its place. This was the oneI wanted to tell even more and I was in the perfect position to do just that. One of the biggest bombshells occurred while we were shooting an interrogation sequence on a movie set in downtown Los Angeles. In the middle of a lighting setup, Barry, wearing his orange jumpsuit costume, quietly leaned over the table to actor James Caan and whispered, "Do you know how I raised the money for this film? I clipped companies…" "Mm," Sonny Corleone replied. It's a common oversight, when actors on a set forget they're wearing microphones and that people wearing headphones are listening. Now Barry swears up and down that this exchange never happened. He told Roger Parloff of Fortune Magazine that I was a liar and that if it did happen then I should produce the tape to prove it. The director of the film did just that for me: Scene 71, Take 1… Minkow said it. What's even stranger about that conversation is that Caan had forgotten about a shared investment into a boxer he made with the young Barry back in the 80s, apparently one that had been paid to take a dive. The reason the two were involved together? Because Barry and his company ZZZZ Best had been partially backed by mob buddies of Caan who he met on his Godfather days, which brought a whole other drama to the production when those relationships came back around on the movie set and sucker punched Minkow square in the jaw. On account that the production was a small non-union independent film, there was a danger that when on location IATSE and the teamsters would crash the set and stage a strike in order to secure better benefits for the crew. A "representative" from Chicago was brought on board by IMG to help the situation before it could realize. That person's name was Frankie Fabrutsie (name changed to protect the writer). While sitting in a van, Frankie and one of the line producers were on their way to set. After being introduced, I asked him how long he planned on staying in town for. Fabrutsie whipped his head and stared hard: "… till da fuckin' problem's solved." What made the mob story that much more dramatic was that Fabrutsie employed another "friend" of his to deal with the unions. Big Vinnie (name also changed to protect the writer's future children) heard about the productions issues and said he could help by establishing an inside man in the union offices who would screen incoming faxes sent by crew members, notifying the teamsters of the addresses they could show up to in order to pitch the rest of the set to unionize (this would cost the production money by upping the base scale each crew member was to receive and cost time by shutting things down until a negotiation could be reached). Before jumping on board, Big Vinnie asked what the movie was about over a telephone call from Chi-town. "It's about this whiz kid, Barry Minkow from the 80s who was a big con man." It was silent on the other end of the line for a long moment before Big Vinnie responded, "Yeah, I know Barry. Tell him Big Vinnie from Splash says hello." Splash was a restaurant in Malibu that Big Vinnie was managed back in the Ronald Reagan days. When Barry heard that he went white as a ghost. His face fell into his hands and he sat that way for a very long time. In the film, there is a prison scene shot with Barry Minkow and Ving Rhames. During pre-production, it was without a doubt the most important thing Barry needed written and filmed a certain way, you know "his way." It's a recreation of a questionable prison football game where for Minkow, more than just bragging rights were at stake. His mentor in the slam, Jimmy 'Peanut' Long, played by Rhames and also a questionable real life character (apparently after he was released, he died in a drive by but I’ve never been able to find proof of his existence), tells him he's always taken the short cut, always been a quitter. But, by standing in the way of pain, in the form of a vicious tackle, he can finally do the right thing no matter how hard it is. So Barry heroically spots the open man, throws the game-winning touchdown and gets crushed for doing so. This painfully realized (and painfully written/acted) metaphor was, as Barry tells it, the event that changed his life forever. Cameras rolling, Minkow's character has been tackled hard, nose broken, body lying in the dirt. Rhames walks over and leans into frame, asking in his gravely timber, "Do you know why you're in here?" "Yeah," the real life actor responded, "because I wouldn't testify against anyone whose name ended in a vowel." Thankfully, producers talked Minkow into cutting the line after viewing the finished product, but it was one more moment of revisionist history. Because Barry did testify against said men with said vowels in their names. He rolled on everyone at the end. And Big Vinnie and some of his "friends" had been to prison - for a host of reasons, but one being Barry's testimony. So you can imagine the tumbleweed standoff that happened day one on set, when Big Vinnie met Big Barry for the first time in nearly 25 years. Barry hired two gun-toting bodyguards, no joke. He cautiously walked over and gave Big Vinny a stiff handshake before they chatted intensely for close to a half hour. In the end, the two exchanged an awkward hug and the day moved on. Maybe just two tired giants, no longer such powerful men, ready to let all that sewage water wash under the bridge. There would in fact, be no horse head served on the craft service table… but the Union did show up and get the crew to strike anyway. All production drama aside, quite possibly the most ironic and incredible twist in the development of the film was in respect to the other executive producer, Bret Saxon and his film company Insomnia Media Group. In what was supposed to be an inside joke, the villainous character played by Armand Assante who takes kid Barry under his wing and funds his operation with mob money, was named Saxon in the script. As of now, the names Saxon and Minkow are embroiled in at least one lawsuit together, while Saxon himself is dealing with four additional lawsuits involving fraudulent movie deals and has been ordered to pay $2.5 million to an investor of his most recent film outing. Saxon's claims of wealth and claims of the size of his company’s film fund are what help him raise additional monies for his pictures. But it quickly became practice wherein he used a fraction of those monies to produce IMG movies and spent the rest in order to lead people to believe he was financially solvent, while also living a life of extravagance. He didn’t own the 14,000 square foot house he said he did in Tennessee; it actually belonged to NBA player Mike Miller. The Mercedes, Bentley and Ferarri, have all been repossessed. The American Express Black card? Was not in his name. Saxon has always had his fingers sticky from digging into the crust of many pies. He claimed to have negotiated the sale for O.J. Simpson's book "If I Did It," he was also a business partner of Girls Gone Wild founder Joe Francis. His Las Vegas field trips on private jets with beautiful companions were a far cry from the scene at his Pacific Palisades home where he lived with his wife and children. He did author one book currently available on Amazon entitled, “The Art of the Shmooze.” You can tell me how it reads. Saxon’s stories of his success could rival even tales spun by the young Barry Minkow. He long claimed to have an Egyptian capitol partner who infused a $550 million investment from Borak Holdings. Borak did invest a few millions dollars for two of Saxon's films, which it has been purported that he then used the bulk of to buy the house in the Palisades. Borak also invested a million dollars for a film that was never made, but Saxon took all of the loan proceeds anyway. In that failed production, he’s also being sued for bilking $750,000 from a Memphis based non-profit, The Palmer House, who believed he was going to shoot a film about their orphanage. No, don't go back - you read that right. He stole from orphans. The Palmer House believes Saxon used their money to meet his own investment obligations to the Minkow film. In fact, it's difficult to find a film Saxon has had his fingerprints on that isn't mired in a litany of lawsuits, conspiracy and unpaid bills. His first outing using IMG, "The Grand" with Woody Harrelson, Wener Herzog, David Cross, Jason Alexander and Dennis Farina, is in the middle of two lawsuits. How does this all relate to "Minkow?" Most of the defendants claim that Saxon had backed personal loans and other debt based on the information that his "Minkow" film was ready to be sold and that his proceeds would be what he used to pay back his debt. He claimed an offer of $2.5 million from Sony Pictures to distribute the film. That never happened, Sony had never even seen it. In fact, the relationship between Bret Saxon and Barry Minkow was strained from the start of pre-production. Minkow suspected that Saxon was misappropriating the funds. Saxon in return expressed concern to a business partner (who's now suing him) that somehow Barry Minkow had access to his personal and business account information. There's a scene in the movie that shows how Barry might have been able to do that, but it hadn't been shot yet and Saxon might have skipped over it in the script, because he hired a private investigator to find out how Minkow had obtained certain investocreditor banking information. Therefore even though it was Bret Saxon who green lit the movie and put together the crew through IMG, before start of production Minkow insisted on handling all of the finances for the picture. He had that right since he had raised almost all of the money before production began (Saxon was willing to do all the fundraising if Barry had an actual actor play his older self in the movie). At the time, no one really knew how Barry had raised all of the capitol, but they did know that Barry had to continue raising money during production as the budget kept going over. People were then paid from different corporate entities, or in cash, or thru Paypal. Checks bounced, union rules were ignored and the budget ballooned over one hundred percent from its original estimate on paper. Barry had a habit of pulling out a large wad of money from his pocket and handing twenties or hundreds to someone having a problem. In one instance, he walked the set with a stack of mini-bonuses. On that day he stopped at the transportation department and delivered a $100 bonus check, apologizing for the "mess" that production was becoming. After being deposited, the check was returned by the bank. So was Minkow telling the truth when he whispered the secret to funding his movie into James Caan’s apathetic ear? It was only a few months before he invested and became the executive producer and star of his life story that he went online posting YouTube videos against Lennar Corporation, the home building giant that accused him of extortion as well as claiming false information, which then drove down the company’s stock. Minkow claims he didn't make any money off of the $20,000 he bet against Lennar, even after the company’s worth dropped $550 million… but is that because the movie hasn't made back any money yet? It was during this time that an aggressive and thoroughly accusation based set of articles was written about Minkow by Beth Barett in LA Weekly. I remember following along with every new Sunday published feature. She opined that on top of the insider trading offense, Barry had scammed over a million dollars from his parishioners. At the time, Barett was going off mostly suspicion and she was almost vitriolic in her attack, slamming the man I’d spent the last several months working with. It read like a TMZ article about Mel Gibson. I also never doubted her claims for a second. The ruling in Miami in the Lennar case, is that Minkow lied, concealed material witnesses and destroyed evidence. In the plea he will only admit to insider trading. If you cross reference a 1988 CBS interview, Minkow lays slapdash on his bed in a white tank top, bobbing and weaving his head as he stares reporter Ross Becker directly in the eyes and swears up and down to his complete and total innocence. It's not very convincing, even though it seems Barry himself is utterly convinced. This time, however, the shadow of doubt reaches much too far and it's as thick as an Amish quilt. He can't escape the public's opinion and it's that court which finds the story of his failure more fascinating then the tale of his redemption. Knowing this, he may have struck the Lennar deal because he felt it was his best option. His lawyer Alvin Entin, stated, "Barry is looking forward to getting this behind him and on with the rest of his life." The question about how much he made against Lennar Corporation and what he did with it is now a moot point. With Minkow back in prison after accepting his plea, his film and redemption tale are nothing short of obsolete. But in true Hollywood fashion, it might just need a sequel. For the more interesting story in the life of Barry Minkow, could be about the time he spent millions of dollars and hired hundreds of people in order to make a redemption tale, starring himself as himself, in a film that thru acquiring its funds ultimately led to his ruin. A second story of shame; the defrocked minister once again putting on the orange jumpsuit, this time not in front of a film camera, but behind iron bars. When the man who shot himself in both feet trying to prove he could run gets out of prison this time, will he be ready to be born again, again? Unfortunately for Minkow, we’ll have to wait just a bit longer to find out. He was sentenced to five years in the Lennar case and ordered restitution for… wait for it, half a billion dollars. Subsquently, other charges were brought against him, charges that fell very much in line with Beth Barett’s accusations in LA Weekly. In May of 2014, Minkow was convicted yet again. He’s serving five more years (conjoined to the five he already finished for the Lennar case) for crimes including bank fraud, forgery, mail fraud, wire fraud and other tax related scams that took place over a ten year period in which he stole over one and a half million dollars from his church parishioners. These included an elderly grandmother who was conned $300,000 in loans for the movie and in another instance, a family who Barry counseled during their wife/mother’s cancer, who was asked by him to make a donation in her name after her death in the amount of $75,000 to help refugees in Darfur. The family received a fake email thank-you-note from a fake person (later proven to be Minkow) who confirmed their receipt and called it a gift that produced “applause from heaven.” Roger Parloff, in his Fortune article calls Barry’s second sentencing “an epilogue.” Call me a dramatist, but I don’t think it’s the end of the story for Barry Minkow. As an Evangelist, Minkow believes he is saved by the grace of God (in his first five year stint, he even obtained a doctorate degree in conflict resolution from a correspondence divinity school). The fallible part of religion is always the fault of man. According to the Bible men were built to fail, so to Barry this moment can be easily explained. He swears he is no charlatan, he merely needed to be humbled yet again and he’s now ready to pick himself back up and start over. When the dust settles this time, he’ll have had ten more Superbowls to figure out what’s next (numbering the NFL championships inside are how he counted his time during the first go-round). If you ask me, it shouldn't be very surprising if when he's released from prison, he finds a new ending to his story. I know better than anyone, when it comes to Barry Minkow you can't ever get away with writing the words, FADE OUT.
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