Spread Betting is a form of trading stocks, or any other security by placing your trades on a brokers/bookmakers price rather than the actual market. Trading this way means (in the UK) you don't pay any stamp duty or become liable for capital gains tax on your profits (if there are any!).. But lets get down to the nitty gritty, stocks, indices, forex or commodities, ideas to trade or charts to watch... :) All welcome..
TokenStars is the first celebrity management platform on the blockchain, providing advanced tools and incentives for deeper interaction between stars, fans, and advertisers. Having successfully started with the ACE token sale for tennis ($4.9M+ raised!), TokenStars has enhanced its team with top-notch experts and stars to launch the TEAM token: Lothar Matthäus, Tommy Haas, Nikita Kucherov and many others.
We have been working on a betting model for a few years now, it is for virtual casinos with dice games. A few weeks ago, we finished it and start making some tests on it, we were surprised to find out that the model works according to calculations and can give a return of 20% in less than 50 hours, we stopped there because the model told us that we were getting close to a high risk zone. So now we are planning to move the model into a business, maybe making an online service or something like that, we actually don’t know where to start neither a lot of money to work with, so guys can you give us some advices or any recommendations on how to continue with this project? Our core knowledge is on math and coding so maybe we are skipping something important on how to start with something like this.
Renewables covered more than half of Germany’s power consumption in the first six months of 2020. Germany could lead a “coalition of the willing” on ambitious climate action that bets on renewables, digitalisation and new business models
Renewables covered more than half of Germany’s power consumption in the first six months of 2020. Germany could lead a “coalition of the willing” on ambitious climate action that bets on renewables, digitalisation and new business models
Renewables covered more than half of Germany’s power consumption in the first six months of 2020. Germany could lead a “coalition of the willing” on ambitious climate action that bets on renewables, digitalisation and new business models
@FortuneMagazine: What are the most promising technologies, scientific advances, and business models to invest in, and what are the best ways to place our bets? https://t.co/ZswCMJHczU
Wall Street Billionaire Bill Ackman said Herbalife is a pyramid scheme whose entire business model is abuse of vulnerable working class people. Billionaire Carl Icahn and Billionaire Dan Loeb bet Herbalife would survive and make them richer. Then, things started to get really heated
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 50%. (I'm a bot)
"We wanted the right people to listen. And if you don't know what company it is, you're not going to just go randomly. But I wanted everyone who owned Herbalife stock watching, and I wanted people who were interested in the story, and I wanted Hispanic media there. They're not going to come to some hedge-fund presentation." By around two p.m. on December 19, Kelly was reporting on-air that Pershing Square had "a major new short position," and, she explained, Ackman would be making a full presentation the next day. Some 500 people assembled at the AXA Equitable Center, in Midtown Manhattan-along with another 1,300 people watching online-as Ackman, Dinneen, and David Klafter, Pershing's general counsel, denounced Herbalife for more than three hours, without interruption, using some 330 slides. Onstage, Ackman said he would donate any money he personally made from the trade-"Blood money," he called it-to his foundation, the Pershing Square Foundation, which gave $7 million to Andrew Youn and his One Acre Fund, to relieve hunger and poverty in East Africa, and $25 million to the Newark, New Jersey, public schools. Throughout the presentation, CNBC's Kate Kelly kept ducking out to report what Ackman was saying, and after it was over Ackman himself hit the airwaves, talking up a storm to Andrew Ross Sorkin, on CNBC, and on Bloomberg TV. He positioned himself as the champion of the victims of the alleged scheme. Chapman counters, "If anybody buys this 'He's out to save the little guy' routine, they're just outright gullible and naïve. Arguably, the number of Herbalife employees, suppliers, and their employees, and of course non-complaining distributors who may be harmed by Ackman's quest for profits massively outnumber those distributors who fail to succeed as they had hoped."
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Topkeywords: Ackman#1Wants#2people#3Herbalife#4presentation#5 Post found in /Economics. NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
I've been researching this a LOT lately because I didn't want to get caught in it. Looking at trends and past data. I believe, strongly, that we're in the middle of the market crash. I used my knowledge and was able to fully exit my entire $500k portfolio on Tuesday, maintaining all my gains. I've even taken a sizeable position in SPY puts ($50k worth of Dec $260). I got my close friends out (well the ones who listened) on Friday at the first sign of positive movement. First of all, a little history lesson on the Minksy Bubble. It's basically a theory for how market bubbles happen. It occurs in 5 steps. I will outline what they are in basic and how the current market looks in relation.
Displacement: This is the beginning of a new paradigm where the market changes in a big way. For this, that was the Coronavirus. This took place between February to April.
Boom: Increase in spending begins and major gains start to be made. Media attention and market involvement begin to increase. Currently, we've seen a HUGE increase in retail traders (who are extremely volatile) and massive media attention toward the stock market as it relates to corona news as well as stimulus and recovery speed gains. This took place between April and July.
Euphoria: People stop caring about any sort of reasonable investment strategy and just start throwing money at stuff. Tesla is a fantastic example of this, but many other stocks in the tech sector are guilty of this. July was the beginning of this phase as Tesla saw insane growth within a few week period and other companies followed suit very quickly. This continued into late August with Apple and Tesla going to stupid prices after their splits, and all the other big tech names reaching wild valuations.
Profit Taking: Smart money starts withdrawing funds from the market as they prepare for the crash. We are seeing record insider selling, but most publicly, it began with Tesla announcing they would sell $5bn in new shares. Their second biggest shareholder then announced they were conveniently "rebalancing" their portfolio to sell many Tesla shares as well. This was nothing more than a ploy to pull money out without crashing the market, even though it did anyway. I will get more in depth on this phase later. The biggest catalyst was Softbank, though, and that leads me to the final stage.
Panic Selling: This is when people start to exit en masse in order to recoup whatever they can. We are currently witnessing this. The last few days have been a trainwreck on the market, wiping out August's gains entirely.
Now I know you want to say "well look at today. We're up 2% in the S&P!" This is par for the course on a crash. With the Corona crash, these were the rough day to day movement patterns (I'm using Corona as an example for its shortness/simplicity but all crashes have similar patterns):
1 small loss day
2 BIG loss days
3 medium loss days
5 gain days (there were 5 days of gains in the middle of the March crash)
1 GIANT loss day
3 Sideways days
8 slightly down days, leading to the bottom
Of those gain days, the first was a slowdown, but the second was a change of 4.8% in S&P/SPY from an open of 294 to a close of 309. Consecutive, positive days occurred during every major crash. We can see that being mirrored today and will likely see more upward mobility before more big money starts exiting. Don't be fooled by positive days. That does NOT indicate the crash is over. Novices tend to think crashes are a short event and that they should hold through them because they missed the boat. Crashes take weeks, minimum, but usually months, if not years, to become fully realized. Covid's crash is the fastest we've had at one month. Another trend I've noticed is that these market bubbles are happening and recovering faster and faster. The late 80's Japanese market crash took 6 years to play out. The 2000 dotcom bubble was 4 years. The Chinese 2007 bubble took 2 years. The 2008 oil bubble took 1 year. On the flipside, the 2007 housing bubble took 5 years. The 2008 energy bubble took 3 years. We're about 6 months into this current bubble, but more if you account for any forming bubble from before covid. Maybe this means nothing, but I thought it was worth mentioning. Bubble analysts always say there is a warning sign prior to a true collapse. I've been seeing these called "violent shake-offs." Most crashes get one, but some get two. We had one with the June mini-crash. One could argue that this current crash could be a violent shake-off. I'll get to the alternate scenario later. Assuming it's not, which I don't think it is, we move to the final trigger, the catalyst. Catalysts: These are are things required to trigger a bubble collapse. Almost every bubble has had some notable catalyst(s) to trigger the rapid decline. As mentioned in Profit Taking, we've had three catalysts occur so far that triggered panic selling. New Tesla shares, secondary Tesla offloading, and Softbank. They are the big one and who I will focus on for a minute. To those who don't know, Softbank bought $4 billion in options during the early days of the market post-covid. These options are worth a fortune right now ($30bn estimated), but they have to be sold in order to be fully capitalized on. What everyone is afraid of is Softbank doing just that, or worse, for shareholders: holding through a market crash and losing it all. In the movie, Margin Call (great movie), a hedge fund got wind of the housing market crash before everyone else and ultimately sold EVERYTHING they had in order to get ahead of it, single handedly beginning the inevitable market crash. To be fair, this is a fictional movie and they had a portfolio of like a trillion, but it's really just mentioned to illustrate my point. Softbank has to exercise these options, which have strike prices likely WAY below market value. If they sell those shares, they could easily double their investment, even through a crash. The problem is that people got so spooked by this revelation that Softbank lost over $15 billion in market cap (currently at $112bn). Had this not happened, the speed at which we decline would've been much slower. They have to make those losses up now. You know what would do that? Exercising all their options and selling them for market gains. They can't keep those options forever, either. At best they have 2 years. Softbank will try very hard to sell all those off without crashing the market, but if it keeps dipping, they will become more desperate and start selling them more frantically, promoting a panic selling cycle. And what are we in? A panic selling cycle. If this cycle continues with Softbank, more will tack on and we'll see this bubble continue to collapse. If it can hold a recovery this week, it might survive, but of course, I don't think it will. The end of day today really showed that people are afraid and that given any opportunity, selloff will occur. I think this IS the crash. But, I could be wrong. That brings me to the second and third catalysts. Commercial Real Estate Crash: The eviction crisis is a real threat to our economy. It's brushed under the rug pretty heavily, pointing to the home real estate market and its gains, but the damage is done. Most major commercial real estate buildings, especially apartments, are in disarray. Go look around and see the kinds of deals your local apartments are offering. Where I am, I'm seeing up to 2 months of free rent in some places. I've never seen that before. Everyone is desperate for paying tenants. Most commercial properties can weather a bit of this kind of thing, but we haven't seen anything like this. Small businesses are shutting down, new businesses are not opening. No one is shopping. Who replaces those lost tenants? All these properties are heavily in debt. That's how the industry works, for the most part. Entrepreneurs and builders finance all projects because they are seen as very safe and it's a rule of thumb to never use your own money for investment. The margins had become abysmal before corona. I once looked into buying commercial real estate and found that I would only cover the expenses and have to solely rely on the property value increasing, to make anything worthwhile. This will cause properties to bleed out extremely fast. There is a commercial real estate collapse coming, likely within 6 months, and it will compound any damage the tech bubble has done. Don't forget that this isn't strictly a US problem. This is a worldwide problem. Vacation Industry Crash: Many countries around the world rely on a steady influx of visitors in order to keep their businesses afloat. This, in turn, boosts GDP. Malaysia, for instance, is a place I personally visited, during Covid, and it was a desolate wasteland. Most shops had employees literally standing outside waiting for a single customer. It was like this for blocks and blocks. Huge tourist attractions were completely devoid of people. It's only a matter of time before our lack of flying catches up to these already poor and extremely hard to maintain businesses. The country in Malaysia I visited had a notoriously low success rate for new restaurants, during the best of times. Now, they are lucky to get any customers. That affect will bleed into the second catalyst. More businesses going under, causing commercial real estate to lose tenants with no one to replace them, causing those buildings to go under, causing banks to be stuck with a boat load of vacant, unprofitable properties, causing them to go under. Even with a vaccine, we won't go back to normal fast enough to recover the losses. The airline industry is reporting that they don't estimate returns to normal until late 2021, early 2022. Do you think a random Joe has enough liquidity to keep his business running that long at extreme drought? The people at the bottom of the chain, consumers and small business owners, were never prepared to have a cash supply on hand for this kind of hit to their lives. That is going to trickle up to the top and when it does, goodbye market. Of course, there's also the US election, but that will be a small catalyst as far as I'm concerned. ------------------------------------------------ Other notable indicators/insights that things don't look good:
Market cap to GDP was 2:1 at peak. The dotcom crash was 1.4 and the recession was 1.1. Currently 1.77:1.
Google trend results for "Market Crash" are trending up. Last week, which only accounted for 3 days, really, already topped the June mini-crash.
An analyst who witnessed the Japanese crash of the 1980's believes this will be the biggest crash we've ever seen.
EVs are the new dotcom company. Many will fail as car creation proves to be more difficult than anticipated.
High growth, high revenue companies do not automatically equate to sustainable companies, despite stock prices pretending they do. For example, Sea Ltd. doubled revenue but also doubled expenses in Q2 2020. eToys is a prime example of this, from the dotcom bust era. Had huge revenue, but their expenses could not be lowered to a sustainable level and went out of business, despite the business model making sense and the revenue stream looking really good.
The PE ratio of the market is above 30, which has historically always resulted in a market crash.
Apple saw 12 million shares exited at the bell today. Prior to that was around 600k peak. This happened for MOST tech stocks.
If you bought Microsoft at peak dotcom bust, you would have to wait 10 years to breakeven (longer if you account for inflation losses). That kind of stagnation is what we're looking at, even today.
------------------------------------------------ This does NOT mean the entire market will crash. Quite the contrary. Yes, most stocks will go down as the market collapses in overvalued sectors (TECH) brings down the whole thing, but they will stay high if priced fairly. Most epicenter is priced within a reasonable area, for instance, and will weather the storm quite well. At least, until the commercial real estate market collapse catches up to them. Plan accordingly, set stop losses, and do your own research. I don't expect you to just follow my information blindly. I may have gotten things wrong or mixed some wires. You need to figure this out on your own and make your own judgement call. I simply hope to raise awareness for what I believe is a market crash so that people don't lose their shirt during this. I hope I'm wrong, though I'm literally betting with my money that I'm not. Good luck.
When it comes to NX, why must Nintendo be kept in a box?
There's a lot of speculation about the NX, and among gamers and Nintendo fans, the wants and expectations are the same "make a hardcore power box with standard controller and mature games". People are thinking within the same box, and the same ruleset that much of the industry has conditioned them to think in for years. Nintendo however, prides itself on thinking OUTSIDE the box. Going against conventional wisdom, and challenging gamers to think in a new way. This has more divisive and hit-and-miss results. But when the hits hit, they hit really hard. The NES, GameBoy, Wii, and DS were all results of Nintendo deviating from years of propaganda and conditioning and creating new rules to follow. Why does anyone expect the NX to do away with that? Why must Nintendo be put back in the box and play by the same rules, with the same audience, and the same conventions everyone has been playing by for years? Now don't misunderstand, I want Nintendo to make a sufficient product for 2017. I want them to evolve with the times, but that doesn't mean going after the SonySoft AAA crowd. That's honestly, commercial suicide. What Nintendo needs to do is approach the problems they currently face the way a game developer would face them. This is what gave us the aforementioned systems. They need to be at the forefront of mainstream innovation again, they need to break down barriers, and occupy underserved niches in the industry. Not pander to the same safe-bet demographic with the same safe-bet games using the same safe-bet business models that everyone wants to cling to for some reason.
Economic sustainability of the Betex business model is promising. Betex business model is designed to minimize the risks of operational loss, for any number of brokers and platform users, regardless of the nature of the events and outcomes which users are betting on.
Lloyd Blankfein’s Big, Tricky, Game-Changing Bet- Goldman’s move into consumer credit is an attempt to convince skeptical investors and analysts that it can adapt its business model to an era when large pure-play investment banks are melting away.
[Business] - French sporting goods brand Decathlon bets on try-it-before-you-buy-it model to battle industry heavyweights in Hong Kong | South China Morning Post
[Bloomberg Business] Known in the 1970s for its sporty, fuel-efficient models, Nissan is betting big on the Datsun brand for growing eco… https://t.co/7JQ0mGu4jA
Is trans America a pyramid scheme and/or predatory business? I just watched 'betting on zero' documentary and it got me thinking about other possible predatory business models built on growth
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 30th, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance. Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance. With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary convention bounce.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - 538's runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
The model you use is up to you and depends on how you want to run your business. I suggest starting with one model and expanding from there. I prefer the subscription model, because if you do a good job keeping your bettors happy, you can predict your income from week to week or month to month, and you only have the marketing cost of acquiring ... A betting exchange is similar to a bookmaker, but the differences are significant enough that they have another name and business model. It’s more of a marketplace model, where customers can buy and sell either side of the action. Sports Betting Business Plan – Publicity and Advertising Strategy. We at FavourBet have created unique and well budgeted publicity strategies to boost our business. We have stated many times already in this business plan that our publicity budget gives us nothing less that a 70% chance of survival in this industry. Each betting model is designed to accurately forecast the probability of a specific betting outcome, with accuracy continuously validated by back tests against historical odds. Our intuitive software platform allows you to quickly sort, search, and filter the markets, easily identifying inefficiencies. Many newspapers, travel sites, price comparison sites, blogs, betting sites etc. use this business model. In addition to this, bettingexpert generates revenue via the sale of advertising space on the site (CPM) and hosting of sponsored content, where operators pay for exposure on the site.
Creating a Sports Betting Model 101 - Intro to Expectation ...
We'll show you how you can turn a $1,000 bankroll into over $300,000 betting on sports, or as we approach it...investing on sports. We show you an example, u... In this video I wanted to share with you not just the business model review but also for a couple minutes how to build a business leveraging a lot to get the results you want through the internet. Creating a Sports Betting Model 101 - Intro to Linear Regression (The simplest model ever created!) - Duration: 17:19. Sports Betting Truth 19,857 views Before you can actually deploy a model for betting purposes you need to test it to make sure it works. You can test it in real time as the season goes on, da... In order to make a sound prediction on how a game will play out, it may not be a bad idea to learn how expectation works. While useful in Monte Carlo Simulat...
![[Business] - French sporting goods brand Decathlon bets on try-it-before-you-buy-it model to battle industry heavyweights in Hong Kong | South China Morning Post](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/nguHokdov4jPCdGFUxBKXbdJ5UG9zKHNLLGs2_tQ5Uk.jpg "[Business] - French sporting goods brand Decathlon bets on try-it-before-you-buy-it model to battle industry heavyweights in Hong Kong | South China Morning Post")
![[Bloomberg Business] Known in the 1970s for its sporty, fuel-efficient models, Nissan is betting big on the Datsun brand for growing eco… https://t.co/7JQ0mGu4jA](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/dadzn3hsaFJHTAEsq0TxmZP291Aae89SXtegqF7RaKM.jpg "[Bloomberg Business] Known in the 1970s for its sporty, fuel-efficient models, Nissan is betting big on the Datsun brand for growing eco… https://t.co/7JQ0mGu4jA")
![[World] - Like Elon Musk, this CEO is betting on Mars but his business model is more Disney than SpaceX | NBC](https://a.thumbs.redditmedia.com/VPoX6eq8R-P5pzbK4JdA7gVLxVCT1-S13RT4djyy-q4.jpg "[World] - Like Elon Musk, this CEO is betting on Mars but his business model is more Disney than SpaceX | NBC")
![[Business] - Singapore Airlines-backed Vistara bets on upmarket model in frugal India](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/xQZA58atQtXZX6_yOM27vJLe9olBd0ijugv4eiFL1bU.jpg "[Business] - Singapore Airlines-backed Vistara bets on upmarket model in frugal India")
