Welcome, dear readers, to my semi-regular coronavirus roundup.
Housekeeping:

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EDIT: TRUMP ADMITTED TO KNOWING DANGER OF COVID WEEKS BEFORE ACTING

Bob Woodward's new book reveals that Trump was aware that the coronavirus was dangerous and "more deadly than even your strenuous flus" even as he publicly downplayed the threat and failed to act to save lives. (article now updated with audio of Trump's interview)

"This is deadly stuff," Trump told Woodward on February 7.
In a series of interviews with Woodward, Trump revealed that he had a surprising level of detail about the threat of the virus earlier than previously known. "Pretty amazing," Trump told Woodward, adding that the coronavirus was maybe five times "more deadly" than the flu.

Trump also admitted to intentionally downplaying the threat:

"I wanted to always play it down," Trump told Woodward on March 19, even as he had declared a national emergency over the virus days earlier. "I still like playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic."

Election day vaccine

A group of nine leading pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies pledged on Tuesday to only seek approval for Covid-19 vaccines demonstrated to be safe and effective.
The pledge comes as Trump hypes the possibility of a vaccine before Election Day. His timeline has been pushed forward from “by the end of the year” to “before November 1st” and, most recently, “during the month of October.”
During his Labor Day press-briefing-turned-campaign-event, Trump said: "[It's] going to be done in a very short period of time -- could even have it during the month of October” (clip).
Trump went on to explicitly ties the vaccine to his re-election schedule: “We'll have the vaccine soon, maybe before a special date. You know what date I'm talking about” (clip).
Despite saying the quiet part out loud himself, the president tried to cast Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the ones politicizing the vaccine process: “They’re going to make the vaccine into a negative… They’re saying ‘wow, Trump’s pulled this off, let’s disparage the vaccine.’ That’s so bad for this country, that’s so bad for the world to even say that and that’s what they’re saying” (clip). Unfortunately, many media outlets have portrayed the issue as a “both sides” argument.
Federal officials and health experts say Trump’s Election-oriented timeline is unlikely. NPR spoke with Moncef Slaoui, chief adviser for the administration's vaccine development program, who said he expects to have "enough vaccine to immunize the U.S. population by the middle of 2021.”
Case in point, development on the vaccine Trump was rumored to be betting on, the AstraZeneca-Oxford project, was put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant.
But the point may not be to have a vaccine fully available to the public; Trump can simply claim the “deep state” is holding things up, blaming Biden/Harris for the pandemic under his watch. Furthermore, experts say there is no way our government and existing infrastructure will be ready to distribute, administer, and track doses by November. Health departments will also need an infusion of federal aid, a proposal that seems out of reach with a Republican-controlled Senate afraid to spend any more money during the pandemic.

...many health departments are so overwhelmed with the current costs of the pandemic — such as for testing and contact tracing — that they can’t reserve money for the vaccine work to come. Health departments will need to hire people to administer the vaccines and systems to track them, and pay for supplies such as protective medical masks, gowns and gloves, as well as warehouses and refrigerator space.

America alone

Meanwhile, the U.S. is backing down from the global fight against the pandemic, further enshrining Trump’s “America First” perspective into official policy. The Trump administration declined to join a global effort to develop, manufacture, and equitably distribute a coronavirus vaccine, in part because the World Health Organization is involved. U.S. allies including Japan, Germany, and the European Commission back the effort.

“The United States will continue to engage our international partners to ensure we defeat this virus, but we will not be constrained by multilateral organizations influenced by the corrupt World Health Organization and China,” said Judd Deere, a spokesman for the White House.

• Further reading: The Trump administration said it won't pay more than $60 million in dues it owes to the World Health Organization.

The U.S. Agency for International Development, in charge of distributing global assistance related to the pandemic, is shutting down its only pandemic-focused task force. Other agency bureaus and divisions will take on its functions.

Sturgis comes home

South Dakota (+120%), Iowa (+81%), and North Dakota (+66%) have seen the largest 2-week increase in COVID-19 cases in the last two weeks, compared to the two weeks before.
These three states were also the “epicenter” of the Sturgis motorcycle rally last month. The event packed nearly 500,000 people into a small town in South Dakota, with rallygoers attending from - and returning to - all around the country. Photos and reports from Sturgis documented a startling lack of face masks and social distancing precautions.
According to a new study, over 250,000 coronavirus cases can be contributed to the rally. Assuming a cost of $46,000/case, the authors estimated the rally cost $12.2 billion. “This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend,” they write.
SD, IA, and ND do not have statewide face mask mandates. In fact, the Dakotas are two of just five states that do not allow local officials to require masks (the others are ID, MO, and OK). Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has been told by the White House that the state’s outbreak is the steepest in the nation and urged officials to require mask-wearing statewide. Reynolds has yet to do so.

Alabama schools

Alabama has the fourth-most daily new cases per 100k people (after ND, SD, and IA) despite a statewide face mask order. The state has largely lifted all social distancing measures and has encouraged schools to reopen with in-person classes and sports. According to a NYT database, four-year universities in Alabama have over 4,000 coronavirus cases just weeks after opening.
The University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa accounts for over 1,300 of the cases. Professors at the school were reportedly told by the administration not to talk about the outbreak - not even to inform students if someone in their class tests positive. The mayor of Tuscaloosa let bars near the university reopen on Tuesday.

• Further reading: Alabama is starting to see a payoff from its mask mandate, in place since mid-July. New covid cases have been cut in half over the past month and coronavirus patients admitted to hospitals fell to the lowest level since June.
  
• Remember the news articles praising Trump’s new “tone” on masks? During Monday’s press conference, Trump tried to bully a reporter into taking off his face mask when asking a question (clip). The reporter, Jeff Mason of Reuters, refused. Apparently, this annoyed Trump so much that he was still griping about it on Twitter Tuesday (clip).
  

Trump pushes for sports

After weeks of haranguing schools to bring back sports, Trump has reportedly offered Big Ten football teams access to the national government’s reserve of rapid COVID-19 tests.

The new, cheaper […] tests could be the key that unlocks the door back to the Horseshoe and stadiums around the conference. And the White House might be willing to assist in that effort by potentially designating part of its supply to the Big Ten after buying 150 million rapid tests last week from Abbott Laboratories.

The president is so attached to the idea of college football resuming that he is pushing the Big Ten conference to go ahead without the participation of three schools, blaming the governors of Michigan, Illinois, and Maryland for the conference’s vote to cancel.

Mitch plays games

The Republican-controlled Senate is planning on voting on a scaled-down coronavirus relief package as early as this week. The “skinny” bill is unlikely to become law as Democrats feel it does not adequately address the magnitude of the crisis the nation is facing. McConnell is hoping a Senate vote on coronavirus aid - any aid - will help vulnerable Republicans up for re-election.

The Republican bill is expected to include a federal unemployment benefit, another round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funding, and more money for coronavirus testing and schools, as well as liability protections from lawsuits related to the virus. McConnell didn't release a price tag for the forthcoming bill, but it is expected to be at least $500 billion — half of the $1 trillion package Republicans previously unveiled in late July.

One of the reasons - perhaps the main reason - for the breakdown of relief bill negotiations may be new White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), who served with Meadows on the Oversight Committee, told The Hill:

“Closing deals is not Mark Meadows’s strong suit. His whole track record is: blow it up… If you ask yourself what’s the difference between April and May, when we did reach big, broad bipartisan consensus, and today, the variable is Mark Meadows.”

Miscellaneous news

Lost in the Sauce was so long this week that I had to omit a couple of sections. I’ll include them here instead.
Immigration: Federal Judge Dolly Gee ordered DHS to cease using hotels as detention facilities for migrant children it seeks to expel from the border.

Gee said the use of hotels for detention purposes violates the Flores agreement because the locations lack sufficient oversight, state licenses to hold minors and standards for the care of young children. Minors have also faced a "woefully inadequate" process to seek the help of lawyers, who have been barred from entering the hotels, Gee added, citing declarations from attorneys who said they struggled to reach detained children.

• Further reading: “Watchdog confirms botched family reunifications kept migrant children waiting in vans overnight,” NBC; “Trump nominee had role in removing prosecutor opposed to family separations,” Guardian

Immigration: The Trump administration has drafted a proposal that would dramatically expand the number of people required to provide biometrics for their immigration applications, while also increasing the personal information the government can demand, such as eye scans, voice prints, DNA, and photographs for facial recognition.
Immigration: The Border Patrol made a dramatized YouTube video depicting a Spanish-speaking attacker stabbing and killing a man in a dark alley after escaping from U.S. agents - “a clip apparently created to dramatize President Trump’s depiction of migrants as fearsome criminals.” The agency removed the video following backlash.
Environment: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration opened an inquiry earlier this year into whether Trump political appointees illegally weakened rules meant to protect whales from oil industry seismic airgun blasting. Then, just as quietly, it halted the probe.
Environment: The Trump administration proposed a rule change that would make it easier to permit oil and gas drilling operations in national forests. The move comes as a watchdog report reveals the oil and gas industry has been allowed to pay far less than usual to the government for the right to drill on public lands under a controversial Trump administration coronavirus relief policy. Furthermore, the administration is seeking to fast track environmental reviews of dozens of major energy and infrastructure projects during the COVID-19 pandemic, including oil and gas drilling, hazardous fuel pipelines, wind farms, and highway projects in multiple states.
Environment: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service issued a proposal that would allow the government to deny habitat protections for endangered animals and plants in areas that would see greater economic benefits from being developed — a change critics said could open lands to more energy development and other activities.
World: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced sanctions against two International Criminal Court officials -- the Trump administration's most aggressive move yet to try to deter an ICC investigation into possible war crimes by US military and intelligence officials.
World: How Donald Trump took down the Robert Mueller of Latin America: At the center of the story is an alleged quid pro quo between Donald Trump and Jimmy Morales, a former television comedian who was elected president of Guatemala.

I had never seen this before but thought it was really interesting.
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/p_rosed.shtml

It's Time to Forgive Pete Rose

By Jimmy Carter
USA Today © — Monday, October 30, 1995
It's October again, and despite the Million Man March, peace talks in Bosnia, O.J.'s future, hurricanes and train wrecks, our family's passion has been focused on baseball and the World Series that ended Saturday. There was a vast abyss last fall with no World Series, and still a diminished luster on the game as players and owners prepare to resume their endless contract disputes.
But there was something else amiss, underscored by the heroic achievements of Cal Ripken Jr. and Greg Maddux. An equally remarkable player - Pete Rose - is barred from recognition in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Election to the Hall of Fame has never been an affirmation of impeccable character, but rather a recognition of extraordinary achievements on the diamond. This is what makes the case of Pete Rose, one of the greatest baseball players of all time, so agonizing.
One of society's most difficult decisions is whether to extend forgiveness to someone who has committed a crime or made a serious mistake. In international diplomacy, it is often necessary to grant amnesty to former oppressors and corrupt officials in order to reconcile antagonists and bring peace, justice, and respect for human rights to a troubled nation. U.S. presidents are responsible for the ultimate decisions about pardons and paroles for convicted criminals who have served a portion of their sentences. A most difficult decision for me was amnesty for draft avoiders to help heal the trauma of Vietnam. President Gerald Ford made the politically costly choice of pardoning President Nixon to address the national wounds of Watergate.
In every case, it is necessary to assess the offense, extenuating circumstances, evidence of reform or restitution, and the willingness of victims to forego continuing punishment of the guilty.
For at least five generations, our family members have been avid baseball fans. We were particularly proud of Ty Cobb, a fellow Georgian, and simply let the negative aspects of his character fade into relative unimportance when compared to his achievements on the diamond. It was with mixed emotions that we observed Pete Rose getting his 4,192nd hit on Sept. 11, 1985, breaking one of Cobb's seemingly invulnerable records. But we recognized Rose's extraordinary spirit and determination. Few players ever made greater use of their natural talents or brought more enthusiasm to the game.
Rose gambled on sporting events and was convicted of tax evasion. We shared America's disillusionment when we learned that he had brought disgrace and punishment on himself and on the game he had previously honored. Although he served his prison sentence for the federal crime, he is still banned from baseball's eligible list and therefore cannot be elected to the Hall of Fame.
Recently, I have reread the May 9, 1989 investigative findings of John Dowd in "the matter of Peter Edward Rose," a report requested by the respected baseball commissioner, Bart Giamatti. Dowd held a high career position in my administration, and his credentials are impeccable. I find the testimony (mostly from convicted felons) about Pete Rose's betting on sports events to be convincing and disheartening, but evidence about specifically betting on baseball is less than compelling.
There is substantial indication that Commissioner Giamatti also had some reasonable doubts. When the commissioner announced their mutual understanding that Rose would be banished from the game, there was no finding that he had bet on baseball. However, in answer to a reporter's question, Giamatti expressed his opinion that Rose had committed this crucial act. Although admitting the other charges, Rose has vigorously denied this allegation.
All this is a matter of record, and we cannot minimize the seriousness of the proven offenses. However, in a careful but determined manner, it is now time to explore an act of amnesty or parole. This would only involve the placing of Pete Rose back on the baseball eligibility list, and need not now include any immediate decision on his election to the Hall of Fame.
Let us consider the four key factors mentioned above:
Rose's offense: It is fruitless to rehash the already belabored facts. A major degree of guilt has been conceded.
Extenuating circumstances: The most important are the marvelous (not just superior) achievements of Pete Rose as a player during his long career, aside from his subsequent service as a manager. No player has over-hustled more, or been more committed to the game of baseball. After breaking Ty Cobb's record, Rose went on to a total of 4,256 hits in an unequaled 3,562 games and 14,053 times at bat, for a lifetime batting average of .303. He also held 31 other major and National League records.
Reform or restitution: Pete Rose served his prison time as required, and has subsequently led the life of a proper and law-abiding citizen. He is gainfully employed, and has complied with the special restraints placed on him by Commissioner Giamatti. In painful dignity, he has suffered many other actual and indirect punishments.
Victims' forgiveness: The primary victims of the crime are the millions of dedicated fans who support baseball and are very protective of the game's reputation and integrity. A 1994 article in Sports Illustrated reported a telephone poll of Americans in which 97% of respondents said that Pete Rose should be in the Hall of Fame. I have found virtually no fans who disagree.
This ultimate question can be answered at a later time, either by a vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America or by members of the Baseball Hall of Fame Committee on Baseball Veterans. Now, even in the confused environment of major league baseball, Pete Rose should at least be declared eligible for later consideration. Then, his own attitude and performance can shape the final decision.
I have never met or communicated with Pete Rose, but would like to join with other Americans to help give him - and the game of baseball - this opportunity for redemption.

Disclosure: This is not a comprehensive breakdown, and it's not meant to be. Just some key points and context that I thought you'd find interesting.
DraftKings is technology stock meets gambling
Three main products: Daily fantasy sports or DFS, Sportsbook, iGaming
DFS is OG DraftKings. Fantasy sports are where players make fantasy teams and battle each other to win money. However, sportsbook is where the money is: betting actual money on actual sports against the house. iGaming is basically an online casino with some online games you can gamble on, in addition to the classics like blackjack and Russian roulette.
In addition to DraftKings, there’s also SBTech, the online gambling technology company that had an arranged marriage as part of the DKNG merger.
Landmark Case
In 2018, the Supreme Court knocks down the federal law prohibiting sports gambling throughout the United States. Pandora’s box is open. Each state has to decide what it wants to do with gambling on its own.
The Path to Legalization
Map of Sportsbook legality
DFS legality is more widespread
Currently, 36% of the USA population lives in a state with some form of legal gambling and 24% in a state with legal online gambling. The population living where DraftKings is live or going live is only 13% of the country. There’s a lot of ground to cover.
NJ is the posterchild for sports betting legalization at the moment, and it’s DraftKings promised land. Generating 30% of DraftKings total revenue, it is a testament to the money waiting to be made if sports betting is made fully legal.
The Risks for DraftKings
Regulation: Gambling is a money-maker, but it’s also a social disease. States will want to cash in with taxes of 6.8 to 36% but it will be a tough battle to make it happen. And that battle will unfold state by state. Just like with the marijuana industry, the fate of the market is undeniably shaped by how legalization unfolds. It could end up being a niche hobby in select states, or it could end up like gambling in the United Kingdom, where there’s a gambling shop on every corner. Or there could be a huge gambling market, but one that is monopolized by the States exclusively. If they’re going to allow gambling, why not take all the profits, right?
Competition: FanDuel and DraftKings once considered a merger before the FTC played tough. Now, together they own 95% of the DFS market in the USA with a slight majority going to DraftKings. However, there will be fierce competition as new states open up, and missteps could be stifling for either company in the early stages. The lifeblood fueling this battle? Cold hard cash burned up in advertising and incentivizing dollars. Maybe it’s not as bad as Uber since gambling has a chance at being profitable, but if you don’t like to see money burning, think twice about entering the online sports betting market over this coming decade.
Technology: The hardware of gambling is a liability. Paying for the bandwidth needed at the exact moment of a match when everybody checks their bet is expensive. Payment processing, user validation, server hosting, sports data, app store placement: these are all areas of vulnerability and cost that you can minimize but can’t eliminate. With SBTech in the fold, having complete vertical integration is the aim and strength of DraftKings.
The House Always Wins…Usually: Writing bets means risk. Thankfully, the DFS is player versus player, so DraftKings always wins, taking something like EDIT: up to 15% of what players put in. It's a bookkeeper's wet dream. But Sportsbook and iGaming have classic gambling risks which should be fine over the long-term.
The Good Side (and Oh God They’re Beautiful)
Growth Potential: It’s a technology stock. The PE Ratio is over 600. When you buy DraftKings, you’re buying the dream of an America where gambling is as American as the Ford F150. A matured Sportsbook market in the USA would be around $20 billion, about $85 per adult. It’s a beautiful untapped (and non-existent) market with lots of money waiting to be taken. With Coronavirus, the slice of the sports betting pie that goes digital is bound to be more than ever before, if the sports happen
COVID19: The only thing that can stop a sports betting company from making money is getting rid of sports. Thankfully, new sports like Table Tennis, eSports, and a host of other betting topics have allowed DraftKings to get by. With lots of cash on hand ($450 million plus) and a monthly burn of $15 million, there’s enough to weather the storm. And if sports reopen with empty stadiums, fans may turn to online gambling to get their authentic sport experience.
Turnaround Time: The largest expense that DraftKings has is conquering new markets. Every time a state opens up, it’s a massive investment. That’s why analysts and executives don’t think DraftKings will run net positive for years to come. However, DraftKings experience in New Jersey has shown an average turnaround time of about two years is all it takes to recoup their initial investment when entering a new market. Some pretty tasty data to have coming in.
The Numbers
Revenue was up to $323 million in 2019 from $226 million and $191 million the years prior. NJ made up $86 million of that, growing by 8.5x after sports betting legalization in late 2018 to make up over a quarter of revenue in 2019.
Net loss however was $146 million in 2019 from $76 million and $73 million the years prior. Cost of Revenue was $103 million, Sales and Marketing was $185 million, Product and Tech was $55 million, and General and Administrative was $124 million of that. DraftKings has never been in the green. They attribute the accelerated burn in 2019 to growth in new markets so whether its aggressive or reckless is up to you. To be fair, if you’re investing in this stock, you should be expecting them to burn every single dollar they get at this point.
Average monthly unique players was up to 684k in 2019 from 601k and 574k with the average revenue per monthly unique player up to $39 from $31 and $28. As of March 31st 2020, there were 720k monthly unique players with average revenue of $41 per. So continued growths in the midst of the early Coronavirus pandemic. Q2 will be revealing for certain.
The stock just skyrocketed to $34+ yesterday meaning a market cap of over $10 billion and a PE ratio of over 600. Take it for what it’s worth to you.
Some Quirks
DraftKings revenue is seasonal. Q4 is the best when the NFL and NBA coincide, with Q3 and Q1 being roughly equivalent, and Q2 basically being garbage. With COVID mainly taking out Q2, perhaps there’s hope for sports by Q3 and Q4 to hit those high-earning months?
Controlled Structure: You get 1 vote for 1 stock, but CEO and Founder Jason Robins gets 10 votes for each stock. So whatever you do, he has 90% of the voting power. Good for long-term growth in a highly reactive landscape, but being powerless is never a fun feeling.
SBTech offers B2B solutions for other gambling companies looking to offer online sports betting and iGaming, so there’s that added benefit. In fact, the share of B2B has been growing from 1% in 2018 to 5% in 2019, so some diversification is happening.
DraftKings’s ticker symbol DKNG reminds me of Donkey Kong

Further analysis has come in from the debate, and it is now obvious that Biden had an earpiece and was being helped.
There are photos of the wires in his shirt and sleeve. When he was given his first question, he touched his ear and said "Good luck" repeating what the person coaching him said into his ear piece. (Totally avoided on the MSM).
Chris Wallace has become famous for all the wrong reasons. Look at this page devoted just to Wallace memes. The media is still BEGGING Touchy Joe to cancel all future debates. The Trump team released a list of the 33 lies Touchy Joe stated during the debate. Are the lib voters stupid enough to believe all the lies? Unfortunately, the answer is probably yes.
Meanwhile, at his post debate "rally" he was confused by a train, then the sign on his podium fell off. You can't make this stuff up. Feeble beyond belief. Trump on the other hand was campaigning in MN yesterday, and when he mentioned Omar and her voter fraud, the crowd started chanting "Lock her up".
Time for an aside. Trump has heard at EVERY rally for four years the chant "Lock "X" up". He HAS to know we DEMAND genuine justice for treason, fraud, EVERYTHING! I still believe it is all coming post his victory, but the chance they manage to steal the election looms large.
By the way, he is campaigning in MN, the only state that didn't vote for Reagan. That tells us he is absolutely certain he has all the swing states secured. I mean CERTAIN. We are a month out. This is the time you abandon states you won't win, and throw every last resource you have at the swing states.
Trump is campaigning in uber liberal states almost exclusively now meaning he wants to have a Reagan like landslide, and he must feel very confident about his ability to counter the liberal attempt to steal the election. Mind you, that IS the game plan.
80 Soros funded organizations have aligned to ensure that Trump will "step down" after they steal the election. In Philadelphia, the laptop and memory sticks used to program the voting machines went missing. Want to bet they are found pre-programmed with a million votes for Biden? In NYC, 100,000 ballots were found to have errors. Going back to my point from yesterday. I know that reading about the rampant and open level of fraud we are already seeing is stress inducing. However, look at Trump. Sure he posts tweets highlighting all this, but he has an aura of absolute confidence. Do you think we are aware of this stuff and he isn't? No chance. He knows about MORE fraud than even we do. His confidence tells me he knows he will overcome and counter all of this.
Fortunately, FEDERAL judges keep ruling against local liberal judges who think they are allowed to change election laws with a ruling. The federal judges are reminding them the law cannot be changed by a dude in a robe on a power trip. Only the legislative branch can change the law. The most recent ruling affected North Carolina. The liberal desperation keeps growing. Now Crying Schumer said he wants to add DC and Puerto Rico as states so they can get more electoral votes. Won't happen.
The AP circulated a memo to members to tell the media how to downplay liberal violence. Riots are now to be called "unrest" because it is a less "emotional" term. Remember my common theme? Liberals are ruled exclusively by emotion. They admitted as much. Lets focus on the media for a second. Fakebook has agreed to ban ads critical of voter fraud and anything discussing the election results after receiving an angry letter from the Biden team. Think about that. Zuckerberg lied to Congress, and has been threatened by the president of the US, but follows the demands of a guy who will be forgotten to history in two months.
The former CEO of Twitter said that the people he disagrees with should be lined up and shot. Clear violation of Twitter policy, but of course it is untouched. Note the mindset. KILL the opposition, True evil.
That brings us to RUMOR number one. Q suggested a LONG time ago they were working to create their own news network. One of our fellow readers must have seen some the same stories I have in that people think Trump will announce the new network a few weeks from now just as all the promised tech censorship goes into over drive. If this is true, that would be game changing for many reasons. The most obvious is he would have a platform to deliver his an unfiltered message 24/7. The second is the timing. Not only is it perfect for the election, but ANY new network would draw curious viewers, and this would draw in a billion people almost over night. Imagine having it preloaded with all sorts of short video clips discussing every topic under the sun. Is this a pipe dream? Odds are the answer is yes. However, we have hints.
Trump for the past two months has been attacking Fox news, and just yesterday said he was so disappointed with Fox that he was almost done with them. They don't have time to legislatively counter the tech media censorship, and I find it very hard to believe Trump will accept being silenced at one of the most crucial times of his life. Why would Q mention this years ago? Because it would take years to create. Keep your fingers crossed. Imagine the liberal heads exploding over that. It would be glorious. It would also be a disaster for the deep state. How many news items do I mention every day that I say got NO media coverage? One or more per day. Yesterday it was the 50,000 person prayer group in DC. The other area that is consistently going unreported are UkraineGate, ObamaGate, PedoGate, SpyGate, etc. This is starting to explode, and is not getting the coverage it needs.
Communist Comey testified before Congress yesterday. The point of this wasn't for him to expose his guilt. We all knew he would lie and deny. That is what he did, but now his answers are on record so when documents come out to the contrary, he is in even more trouble. His most common response to questions was to say, "I don't remember". Let's pause there. He was the HEAD of the FBI. He authorized a spy campaign on the president of the USA, something never done before in US history with the consequences being enormous no matter which way it went. Either they over throw Trump which would be gargantuan, or they all get captured as traitors. But he doesn't remember. Just another case. You know, just like them investigating jay walking and parking tickets.
On the same level. Ted Cruz said that he is either the most criminally corrupt or completely incompetent person in the history of the FBI, and he didn't believe he was incompetent. He said that his legacy would be the destruction of the reputation of the FBI that no one trusts any more. Why would we? They are STILL criminal. They wouldn't investigate the Omar voter fraud from last week. But yeah, the head of the FBI doesn't remember an int'l spy ring trying to take down the sitting president. This guy had better get the gallows. Little else would be true justice.
In case you think they aren't scared to death, look at what is happening in the Ukraine right now. A gas company said in COURT they bribed Biden with at least $900,000. NO media coverage. Like I said, at least once a day. It gets worse. A woman working in the US embassy in the Ukraine was just murdered, right as the Ukraine info is getting declassified. Coincidence? There is no such thing. We also learned that the head of the CIA herself, Gina Haspell (my nickname for her is rated M and based on her first name) is blocking the release of declassified documents. This is why things have taken so long to come to light. She is guilty, knows it, and is covering up her own guilt. She should have been removed long ago.
Misc items. In the process of calling Trump names, Biden slandered the kid who shot three Pantifa thugs in self defense. His super attorney, Lin Wood announced they are suing Biden for libel, and they are already suing FakeBook. This kid will be an American hero and millionaire when it's all done. Touchy Joe said Pantifa was an idea. Trump said ideas don't burn down businesses. True. Ideas also don't have web pages that STILL take you directly to Biden's web page. Ideas don't have their own flag and meet with ISIS in Syria. Oklahoma is charging these thugs with terrorism, and the DA said, "This isn't Seattle". Awesome.
On the sports front, the NFL is threatening teams with lost draft picks if their coaches keep taking off their masks. The league is just one big virtue signal lost cause. The woke NBA is currently playing their finals, and ratings are down 39%.
Trump just announced and emergency order concerning rare earth elements. China has bought 98% of the REE mines throughout the world. However, the single biggest mine is in the US and hasn't been mined in decades. This will open it back up, and Alaska is loaded in REE. Those are needed for our high tech military weapons. Trump keeps putting America first.
Mexifornia announced a task force to look into reparations for slavery. Mexifornia was formed AFTER the Civil War and after slavery was banned. What they are doing is announcing they are looking into paying blacks who no longer vote democrat to go back to their old ways.
Here's a fun fact, all of the top ten cities with the highest murder rates are run by libs, as are 18 0f the top 20.
Do you remember the study showing masks decrease blood oxygen levels by 17%? That study was done on a super fit athlete after two minutes of light activity. That figure would be MUCH worse in our typical out of shape obese citizenship.
Dwayne the Rock Johnson has always been politically neutral in public, but has gone full retard, and he is getting blasted for it. The guy who starred in a Saturday Night Live skit as a child molesting robot, and who has said he "eats kids" (adrenochrome) probably has his name on a flight log to Pedo Island.
That brings us to rumor number two. Do you remember the awesome Bush funeral when the wives of The Fuhrer (nickname for Obama), Jeb, Gore, Pence and Hillarnazi received a surprise envelope that SHOCKED them? Supposedly the message was from dear dead dad and said "They KNQW everything. I'm sorry". Note the spelling with the Q. The final rumor is just in, and is in this video. This guy seems very authoritative and actually lists a TON of sources. He says the Pope, Petrus Romanoff, had a child with the president of Argentina that they sacrificed to Satan. He said the Pope has been removed and this will be official in February, Tuck that away. Q stuff, Q posted the fact that the corrupt US attorney of the SDNY was replaced by Comey's son in law.
A handful of people are holding the country hostage, He also noted that Comey's daughter was in charge of investigating the Epstein suicide, and her husband in on the Ghiselain Maxwell case. He just posted a few minutes ago, and get this. The moderator for the next debate was an intern for Biden.
Q also lamented what America would look like if CV-19 wasn't released. The economy, the rallies, reason for mail in voting, etc. Trump could reverse this by ordering everything is opened up, and lets not forget that HE put Fascist Fauxci in place, not Biden.
Images: Hillarnazi, arson, Ruthless, debate, an idea, two visions, AOC, 2020, debate, Wallace, the PedoRock, simple, FBI, Wallace, morons
(Edit: I’ll work on getting his links included available, I just don’t know how yet. There is another labeled “TGIF” that just came in this afternoon. If you find this intel helpful/insightful please join this sub to make sure you don’t miss the next update(s).

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あなたは私のことを何と言ったの？私がネイビーシールズでクラスのトップを卒業したことを知ってもらいます。アルクエダで数々の秘密の襲撃に関与しており、300人以上の殺害が確認されています。私はゴリラ戦の訓練を受けており、全米軍の中で最高の狙撃兵です。あなたは私には何の役にも立たず、ただの別のターゲットです。この地球上でこれまで見られなかったような正確さで性交を一掃します、私のクソ言葉をマークします。あなたはインターネットで私にそのたわごとを言うことで逃げることができると思いますか？もう一度考えて、ファッカー。私たちが話している間、私はアメリカ中のスパイの秘密のネットワークに連絡しており、あなたのipは現在追跡されているので、嵐、うじ虫の準備をよりよくすることができます。あなたが人生と呼ぶ哀れな小さなことを一掃する嵐。お前は死んだぞ私はどこにでも、いつでもいることができ、700以上の方法であなたを殺すことができます。それは私の素手だけです。私は非武装戦闘で広範囲に訓練されているだけでなく、私は米国海兵隊の兵器全体にアクセスでき、大陸の顔からあなたの惨めなお尻を拭き取るためにそれを最大限に使用します、あなたはちょっとくそ。もしあなただけが、あなたの小さな「賢い」コメントがあなたに降りかけようとしている不誠実な報復が何であるかを知ることができたなら、たぶんあなたはあなたのクソ舌を握っていただろう。しかし、あなたはできなかったし、そうしなかったし、今やあなたは代価を払っているのだ。私はあなたのいたるところに激怒し、あなたはそれに溺れます。お前は死んだぞ、キッド️️ ️ ️although ️‍ ️‍️ ️‍️‍️‍ ️⃣ ️️ ️️️ � 𝓼𝓱𝓾𝓽 𝓾𝓹

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microphone middle midnight military milk mind minor mm moai mom mom” money monitor monkey monster month️ month️️ month️️️ moon️️ moon️️️ more morning morocco mother motorcycle mountain mouse mouth movie moving mr music mắt nail nation nature neck nervous never new next nigga niggas night nine no noise noon nope north northern nose note notes nothing notification numbers nurse‍️ nurse‍️‍️ nursing nut obtain ocean office ok okay ok… old ole omg on one one️hour open orange order other out package pair panda paper parents parent‍ parking️️ parking️️️ party pass pause pay payment peace peach peehle pen people percent perfect person philippines phone photo physics pick pie pig pineapple pink pizza place planet plane‍️‍️ plane‍️‍️‍️ planning plant play please please” podcast point poison poisoned police‍️ police‍️‍️ police‍️‍️‍️ pool poop pork potty pound power practice praise pray present president press previous️ previous️️ previous️️️ price pride princess privacy problem️ problem️️ 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Favor for the GTA Reddit of the day.
Kudos to - www.wizardslots.com and various Redditors for input. I have removed those fields that are just for 'Land Based' as they should allow online gambling alright. Some have very odd laws and will need tested.
​

• Afghanistan
• Algeria
• American Samoa
• Argentina
• Azerbaijan
• Bahamas
• Bhutan
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Belarus
• Brunei
• Cambodia – gambling is illegal for natives, but land-based gambling is legal for foreign visitors
• Cayman Islands – land-based gambling is illegal, and online local casinos are banned, whereas foreign slots are not
• China
• Costa Rica
• Cuba
• Cyprus – online sports betting ok with a license
• Czech Republic – majority of online gambling is illegal (except online lottery and online sports betting)
• Ecuador
• Greece – some online gambling is illegal
• Iceland – online casino gambling and online poker illegal – offline gambling is legal
• Indonesia
• Iran
• Iraq
• Israel
• Jamaica
• Jordan
• Kuwait
• Lebanon
• Libya
• Liechtenstein
• Luxembourg – illegal online other than sports betting and online lottery
• Maldives
• Mali – only legal for foreign visitors
• Mauritania
• Malta - gambling services need a license from the government, this is up to R* to apply for
• Malaysia - note: seems to work for some and not for others. No clear reasons why so far.
• Montenegro
• North Korea
• Oman
• Pakistan
• Paraguay
• Peru
• Poland – everything but online sports betting is illegal
• Portugal - gambling services need a license from the government, this is up to R* to apply for
• Qatar
• Saudi Arabia
• Somalia
• South Africa - online gambling is illegal
• South Korea
• Sri Lanka
• Sudan
• Syria
• Thailand - everything but Horse Racing and the Government Lotto
• Tuvalu
• United Arab Emirates
• Vietnam
• Venezuela

​
Notable edits - Originally the USA was added to this, it is illegal to gamble in Hawaii and Utah for example but the casino seems to function as normal there. There are a few countries as well that have gambling laws but again GTA's seems to duck underneath these. I'm not an enforcer of the law, nor am I a solicitor but common sense would lead me to say if GTA is allowing you to do it then you shouldn't have to worry about anything. If you cannot access the Casino games, VPN's are a known work around but this could net you in trouble. I won't be assisting players on where to find those (various comments have so far) but be warned it is to be used at your own discretion.

 
In 1987, Buffett famously stated, "I'll tell you why I like the cigarette business. It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It's addictive. And there's fantastic brand loyalty."
“The best business to own is one that over an extended period of time can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett
“Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.” – John Templeton
 
Warren Buffett’s best winners have always been stocks which were bought during times of maximum pessimism. GEICO was bought on the brink of bankruptcy. AMEX was bought during the Salad Oil Scandal. Goldman Sachs was also bought with bankruptcy looming. Wells Fargo was a bank with a largely residential loan book bought during a housing crisis. Coca-Cola was bought at a time of massive overdiversification. And so on and so forth.
It’s not often that one has the opportunity to put into practice the all-encompassing philosophy of buy low, sell high. But even when that opportunity rears its ugly head, it’s the rare investor who has the aptitude and the stomach to back up the truck. Thankfully, these opportunities do exist, but it takes a keen eye to discern the difference between a falling knife and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
 
Overview
British American Tobacco (BAT) Malaysia is one such example. Currently trading at just 8x PE, sporting a 100% ROE, and giving a 15% dividend yield, it’s hard not to salivate a little at the financial statistics. But why is such a high ROI stock – a cigarette company no less – trading at such awfully low valuations?
First, some history. BAT Malaysia is the largest cigarette company in the country, with a roughly 50% legal market share and 12% total industry market share. If you’re observant, you’ll notice that Malaysia’s illegal cigarette market share takes up a whopping 65% share of the pie. This was largely due to the massive excise duty (i.e. sin tax) hike in 2015, which brought illegal market share from a reasonable 33% before the hike to 65% and rising today.
As a result, BAT Malaysia has suffered massive share price declines, with the share price falling by 85% in the past 5 years (from RM 60 in 2015) and 70% in the past 12 months alone (from RM 37 in early-2019). This was largely due to revenue declines of nearly 20% and earnings decline of 40% over the past 3 years, with a corresponding shortfall in dividends (the company has a 90% dividend policy). ROE has also fallen from approximately 200% to around 100% today.
Thus, it’s not surprising that the stock has taken such a beating. Indeed, over the past two weeks alone the stock price has fallen by about 30%. But is investing in it now simply trying to catch a falling knife?
 
Business Narrative
The source of the problem can largely be traced back to the sin tax hike in 2015, which brought illegal cigarette market share from 33% to 65% over the past 5 years. The Malaysian government has not been very accommodative to local industry players, rebuffing efforts to reduce the sin tax and dragging its feet when it comes to the enforcement of existing laws and the introduction of new ones. The local Customs department, working together with the police, has had some success in recent years tackling the illegal cigarette cartel – arresting the decline in legal market share from 20%-30% annually to just above 10% in the past year – but efforts are largely seen as too little, too late. On top of that, the illegal vaping scene has blossomed in Malaysia, with nicotine-related products claiming up to 10% of total industry market share.
This backdrop has inspired analysts to impose doomsday scenarios for the legal industry players (i.e. BAT, PMI & JTI), according present values to the companies which reflect a resumption of historical revenue and market share declines. Indeed, when parsing the financial statements of BAT, it’s not impossible to forecast revenues declining to a point where they fall below operating costs (i.e. EBITDA of zero), rendering the equity essentially worthless valuation-wise.
The main reason for the government’s lack of progress is bureaucracy. Different governmental ministries have drawn different interpretations of their legal jurisdiction regarding the matter, and thus shuffle the responsibility of arresting the illegal trade to their peers. For instance, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has stated that it has no authority to enforce legislation against illegal cigarettes, while the Customs department disagrees and says it is the MOH’s prerogative to clamp down on illegal cigarette packets which don’t portray mandatory and unsightly health warnings (illegal cigarette packets tend not to include them). As a result of the red tape, there has been little progress on the front lines, and legal industry players are lesser of for it.
BAT and JTI (the two largest cigarette players) have resorted to shutting down their manufacturing operations and implementing an importation business model, where legal cigarettes are imported from Indonesia into the country to be sold. BAT has also gone through one round of layoffs last year, with a second round expected in 2020.
 
Financials
As alluded to earlier, revenues have declined by 20% over the past 3 years while net profit has declined by 40%. This was surprisingly not due to a contraction of Gross Margin (which you’d expect as costs go up when switching from a manufacturing model to an importation model), but largely as a result of revenues falling while operating costs remain the same. This can be seen in the Operating Margin falling from a high of 24% in 17Q3 to 18% in 19Q3, and net margin contracting from 18% in 17Q3 to 13% in 19Q3.
On the balance sheet side, things look much rosier. Intangibles take up the lion’s share of assets (40%), while Inventories and Receivables have declined slightly in line with the fall in Revenue. Net cash is negative owing to a revolving credit facility which the company has drawn presumably for tax reasons. The debt is current in nature and can be paid back in full with 2 years of Free Cash Flow. The company doesn’t have much fixed assets remaining following the closure of its manufacturing plant, indicating that liquidation value (approximately zero) falls far short of market value. Current ratio is reasonable at 0.8x. Share capital has not changed for at least 3 years.
Receivable days and Inventory days have respectively increased by roughly 50% over the last 3 years – indicating a struggling business which is facing business challenges from its illegal brethren. Payable days have remained static over the same time period. As a result, Cash Conversion Cycle stands at 79 days, up by double from 33 days in 2018.
Cash flow is still stable, with cash receipts approximating revenues. Free Cash Flow is almost equal to Operating Cash Flow, exemplifying the asset-light nature of the current business. The company pays out the entirety of its FCF as dividends (and then some), leading to a dividend yield of 15% at the current share price and a 118% dividend payout ratio.
 
Risks
The risks are apparent. If the government doesn’t do something about the illegal trade and allows it to run rampant, it’s possible that illegal market share increases from here and revenues continue to decline. In the worst-case scenario, it’s not hard to envision revenues falling below operating costs and EBITDA reaching zero, implying the shares are worthless and that dividends will be cut or even stopped entirely.
The current share price of 8x PE (RM 10.00) reflects this doomsday view. The market is basically pricing in declining earnings growth into perpetuity and giving no stock to a potential turnaround. Government intervention to address the illegal trade is widely perceived as sorely lacking and possibly not existing, with analysts imputing revenue declines of up to 30% a year into their models. Share price targets range from RM 11 – RM 15, although the share price has fallen by some 20% since the last revision of analyst reports. All in all, it seems like bad news for BAT.
 
Opportunities
The opportunities for BAT, while less apparent, do exist. For one, the government could by some miracle successfully enforce existing laws and put the brakes on illegal trade – it has already slowed the latter’s advance by some 50% since the sin tax hike. Alternatively, the government could recognize the disadvantages of the narrowing tax base from legal cigarettes and decide to reverse or reduce the sin tax, leading to a reclaiming of legal market share by industry players to previous highs. By some back-of-the-envelope calculations, if legal market share rises to just half of their historical levels, BAT’s earnings and share price could double from here. PE ratios would also expand in such a scenario.
BAT’s parent company in London could also decide to acquire the Malaysian subsidiary given the depressed prices. A fair market price given the circumstances would be roughly 15x PE, which assuming earnings continue to decline by 30% from today, would put the acquisition price at around 120-130% from current share prices.
BAT has also been experimenting with nicotine-related products, such as the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) device known as Glo (PMI has a branded competitor known as IQOS). Both have received glowing reviews from former cigarette users and is expected to help the companies transition into the post-smoking era (i.e. 20-30 years from now). So far, Glo has developed a 1% total industry market share in Malaysia despite only being launched 2 years ago, showcasing its popularity and potential success.
Finally, the government is preparing the release of new legislation regarding vaping, which is due to see light by mid-2020. While legalization is still not guaranteed, government officials have publicly admitted the difficulty of enforcing laws if a vaping ban were to be instituted. If vaping is legalized, the legal industry could see a 10% increase in market share overnight as they introduce their own products to supplement the demand for currently illegal products.
 
Risk : Reward
In my opinion, current share prices have priced in all the risks while discounting all the opportunities. Even assuming earnings decline at an average annual rate of 10% into perpetuity, it would take just ten years to reclaim your initial investment. This is assuming illegal market share continues its rise unabated and legal market share never sees the light of day again. Keep in mind that the company has a 90% dividend payout policy, and has kept this rate despite recent struggles in its business, so you’d get a return of capital regardless of the share price performance.
In this worst-case scenario, the parent company would either push for an acquisition or liquidate the Malaysian operations. An acquisition at fire-sale prices would probably yield at least 5x PE, while a liquidation would yield nothing given the current ratio of 0.8x. The latter is highly unlikely because it would mean that BAT ceases to have a presence in Malaysia completely, a growing South East Asian nation with GDP growth of 4-5% and potentially bright future. Hence, given the probabilities and an estimate of expected value, you’d already come out on top at the current PE of 8x.
What about the alternative? Before we get into the valuation from an opportunity set perspective, let us consider BAT’s business model. As Buffett says, this is a company with unit economics of a penny per cigarette, selling them at a dollar per cigarette, fantastic brand loyalty and a captive audience. Imagine if you could have owned Altria in the USA in the 1970’s. Today, you’d own Altria, Kraft Heinz, PMI and a smattering of profitable businesses around the world. While I don’t mean to draw a direct comparison between BAT Malaysia today and Altria USA of the 70’s, it’s not hard to imagine a similarly wonderful future for a company with such an attractive business model.
As far as economic moats are concerned, the cigarette business is probably one of the few businesses you can say will be around in another 20-30 years. Sure, they’re facing headwinds in the form of a burgeoning illegal cigarette trade today, but who says they will still be facing the same demons 10 years from now, or even 5 years? If there’s one thing for certain, it’s that the business environment is fluid – and chances are good that things won’t remain the same as today, whatever they may be.
 
A Reasonable Bull-Case Scenario Valuation
Let’s put the humdrums aside for a moment and imagine a brighter future for BAT. What would this future look like? For one, it’s possible that within the next 5 years the government realizes it can’t contain the illegal cigarette problem and decide to reduce the sin tax to previous levels. The wider tax base resulting from such a move would result in the same absolute amount in taxes even at lower tax rates – so there is no financial disincentive not to do so – while at the same time reducing the illegal market share. If legal market share even reclaims half of their former levels, the share price of BAT could double from today.
Furthermore, what’s stopping BAT from resuming earnings growth, assuming the business environment recovers? Even if earnings grow by just equal to GDP growth (i.e. 4-5% a year), it would justify a 15x PE at the minimum considering a long-time horizon of 20-30 years. Combine a doubling of earnings with a 15x PE, and you’re looking at a potential quadrupling (4x) of the current share price.
 
A Best-Case Scenario Valuation
If BAT reclaims its former glory and returns to its historical market capitalization of RM 18 billion, we’re talking about a 600% increase in share price.
That’s just for the next ten years. What about dividends beyond that? Let’s imagine the best possible scenario for BAT. Assume for awhile that you’re planning to hold BAT for the next 30 years. Assume also that in ten years’ time, BAT’s share price skyrockets to 600% of current levels, and then grows earnings by 4% a year into perpetuity and pays out 90% of earnings at dividends. Account for 3% inflation and zero percent cost of capital (i.e. growth funded from retained earnings). By the end of year 30, you’d end up with 27x your initial investment, or 2700% of your capital. That’s a 12% CAGR.
In other words, a $40,000 investment in BAT today could potentially yield a million dollars in 30 year’s time. And that’s with reasonable assumptions. Tweak the numbers further and you’ll could potentially reach Buffett-like returns.
 
Conclusion
To sum things up, it appears that current share prices already impute the worst-case scenario, while the best-case scenario is a 600% capital appreciation potential in ten years, or 2700% over 30 years. Giving a margin of safety, let’s dial the ten-year return of 600% down by 50% - we still get a 300% reward scenario. That’s a 12% CAGR over ten years. Not too shabby.
Assuming 50% downside from today’s prices, the upside-to-downside ratio at 300% upside would still be a healthy 1:6. Now that’s a margin of safety.
If you believe that BAT has no future in Malaysia and will ultimately be acquired or liquidated, expect share prices to fall by up to 50% from here. If you expect that the legal industry will recover to former highs and that BAT is well-positioned as the largest cigarette player in an ASEAN country with 4% GDP growth (alongside Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia), you can expect share prices to rise by at least 300% over the next 10 years.
More realistically, share prices will fluctuate by 20% from current levels both to the upside and downside over the next year or so. If you can stomach that kind of volatility, BAT makes for a wonderful risk-reward component of your hopefully diversified emerging market portfolio.
 
A Value Investor’s Perspective
As mentioned above, Warren Buffett has a history of buying companies for pennies on the dollar when the share price reflects maximum pessimism. This does not mean to dive blindly into freefalling stocks which you do not understand. It does mean that you should do your homework, and when you spot an attractive risk:reward ratio in stocks where others are running for the exits, you should be comfortable holding a large position.
Buying a leading cigarette company in its market while it’s beaten down represents one of the most potentially profitable investments imaginable. For reference, take a look at Altria. If you had bought $1,000 worth of shares in Altria in 1970, and reinvested all the dividends, you would be sitting on a fortune worth $5 million by today. That’s an astounding 18% CAGR over an extraordinarily long period of 50 years. Can BAT Malaysia repeat this tier of performance? Probably not, but you don’t need to in order to make a satisfying profit from it.
Buffett espouses thinking long-term when it comes to investing. Think about the long-term when it comes to BAT Malaysia. Is it likely that illegal cigarette’s share of the market will remain elevated at 65% or above for the next 20 years continually? If I was a betting man, I’d wager that it won’t. More likely than not, some kind of unforeseen development will unfold which will bring market share back into the folds of the legal industry – it could be vaping, HNB products, a newly yet unrevealed form of nicotine-device, or even an evolution in the way smokers think. What can be relied on however is that in 20 years smokers will still continue to view nicotine, and by extension smoking-related products, as a form of entertainment and relaxation.
Then there’s the dividends. The dividend yield on one share of Altria bought in the 1990’s held until today would exceed 30%. This is because the dividends have grown over the years in tandem with earnings growth. Extrapolate that to BAT Malaysia, which currently has a dividend yield of 15%. Assuming an average of 4% earnings growth going forward, that dividend yield would grow to just about 45% in 30 years. That’s the power of compounding.
Buffett also champions the idea of owning companies with fortress economic moats. Some of the companies which he owns have such moats, including Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, GEICO, American Express, etc. It’s hard to argue that BAT Malaysia doesn’t have such a moat. Even in such trying times where revenues have contracted by 20%, it still sports a high-flying ROE of 100%, and stable gross margins of 30%. I would go so far as to compare BAT Malaysia today to a Coca-Cola or American Express when Buffett bought them during times of pessimism.
Think about the future of BAT in 10 years, or 20 years’ time. It’s likely that it will have overcome the temporary hurdles which it faces today by then and resume earning high returns on significant capital invested over a long period of time. This is truly a compounding machine if there ever was one. Or as the title suggests, a wonderful company trading at a wonderful price.
Remember that Buffett’s best buys in the public markets have all been investments made during trying times, such as what BAT is facing today. AMEX could have gone bankrupt over the Salad Oil Scandal. GEICO was literally months away from being unable to service its insurance liabilities. Goldman Sachs was teetering on the brink of financial collapse under the heavy weight of subprime mortgage obligations. Coca-Cola was not the company it is today – it was an overburdened, overdiversified conglomerate with little growth outlook. Wells Fargo was staring at a huge, unserviceable loan book immediately following the Californian earthquakes given its significant residential exposure. It’s definitely nice to pay fair prices for wonderful companies, but it’s even better to be able to pay wonderful prices for wonderful companies.
 
In times like these, it pays to reflect on some words of wisdom for guidance:
Buy when there’s blood in the streets.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
In the short-term, the market is a voting machine; in the long-term, it is a weighing machine.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.
Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.
 
May the investing odds be ever in your favor!
 
Stock code: 4162.KL Stock name: British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=4162

NFL pass was made free for a year in the UK (and around the world, by the looks of it) recently, so I got it and started trying to learn more about American football. My normal sporting jam is association football (or soccer) and rugby union, although I know my way around rugby league.
I've so far watched the first two weeks of post-season, with about 50/50 split of watching the full replay, and the "game in 40'" replays. In trying to properly get in the mood, I've often had a drink or two while watching. Normally beer (as is proper) although by "beer" that's usually an English ruby ale, rather than an American beer. (The only American beer I can easily get hold of is Budweiser. I know you have many excellent beers in the USA, but that isn't one of them.) Occasionally it's a gin & tonic with raspberries in. I hope that doesn't ruin the football experience.
INITIAL THOUGHTS
Hits don't seem, for the most part, to be particularly worse than rugby on running plays. Given football's reputation in the UK, most tacklers seem happy to do enough to end the play and that's it. (This is probably down to most pop-culture coverage in the UK being "biggest hits" highlight reels and films like this, in fairness.) Having said that, once it does get rough football does seem to be far less restrictive on certain things as well. Football seems quite happy with no-arm tackles, dump-tackles, and I'm sure I saw a neck-roll at one point. All go without much to say.
Even on passing plays, where the quarterback gets sacked, you might expect a bigger hit against the relatively stationary target from a run-up, but while they look painful they generally don't look so bad.
The cadence of the football v rugby is really different, and this is probably what the biggest bit of getting used to. Rugby would only ever have 25+ seconds of downtime for a set piece. It gives football an explosiveness which rugby only rarely matches but with a trade-off: I find it doesn't get the intensity of watching a rugby team hammer at the defensive try line, phase after phase after phase looking for an opening, while the defence desperately makes tackle after tackle with no idea how long it will be until they get the ball back. (Rugby union only; in rugby league they know it's only six phases.)
In comparison, there's quite a different physical test. Rugby doesn't require the same explosive athleticism that football does, but is a much bigger test of cardio fitness. I don't know how far a football player runs during a match, but I'm willing to bet it doesn't come close to how far a rugby player runs, although it will generally be at higher intensity. (My reasoning being: it can't come close, can it? The ball is apparently live on average 11 minutes in football (surely more? That number is quite old) and there are 53 players sharing the load; in rugby its live for 60 minutes or so, and there are 23 players to share the load.)
The off-the-ball blocking and stuff is clearly so important, but it's hard to keep track off without seeing what happened on a replay. Particularly since the side-on camera angle makes it tough to see what's happening on the line of scrimmage. (And also means I often can't see runners who've gone long.)
The 2 point attack is a great piece of game design. If I could import one thing from football to rugby, I think this would be it.
NFL referees seem to follow the letter of the law far more closely than rugby referees. In rugby if there's no advantage to be gained or both teams are doing something about equally as wrong, and it's not dangerous the referee will basically just ignore it. In football referees seem to call infringements that don't, so far as I can see, gain any advantage a lot more.
Some roughly equivalent positions I've figured out: quarterback & fly-half; centre & scrum-half; safeties & fullbacks (on defence); running backs & fullbacks (in possession); linemen & forwards; receivers & wingers. With no rucking, mauling, or scrummaging the second row of forwards doesn't really have a football equivalent.
Dropped catches are way more common in NFL compared to rugby. Obviously the ball is coming faster, smaller, and from harder angles, and the downside to a dropped catch is less (no loss of yardage, compared to losing the ball entirely). While the difference isn't surprising, I was expecting to see the ball more consistently caught if the catcher got hands to it.
While I was expecting to have to get to grips with a lot of new language, I almost choked on my drink when the commentator referred to a muff. That is not a word to use in polite conversation over here.
QUESTIONS
What's up with the AFC and NFC split? The geographical splits make sense in a country the size of the USA, but this one doesn't.
How much leeway to teams get to improvise on the fly? For example, if I'm told to go for a streak route, and realise I'm being covered by someone faster than me, could I improvise and hook back to find space without getting a bollocking from the offensive coach/quarterback?
I saw a foul called for an ineligible receiver. How can I tell who is an eligible receiver and who isn't, and why are some receivers eligible and some not (i.e. why does that rule exist - is there some strategy it's meant to stop)?
Quarterbacks seem to get away with throwing away the ball quite a lot. Is that just how it is, or are the rulesmakers probably going to alter that somehow? It feels cheap to avoid losing yards to the sack by just throwing a super speculative pass in the vague direction of a receiver.
And the big one: any advice on how to read a defence, or learn the language of it? I kind of get the basics: I know "4-4", for example, means four on the line scrimmage (who's job is to stop a sneak, or sack the quarterback), and four linebackers who stand behind the line of scrimmage and aim to stop runners, leaving three more players. I get that corner backs mark the receiver on their side, and then a safety hangs back to pick up any extra receivers, or make a last ditch tackle. What I don't know is how defences choose which line up to use, how many people to blitz with, or what a good defensive shape looks like once the ball's live.

I will bet that You didn't know that Canada, the USA and indeed across the globe, at any second, at any moment, any one of us good citizens could you put on a secret list courtesy of extremely covert and well funded organized criminal gangs. Much of what you will read here will sound like the ravings of someone on a manic high. Thats fair enough, but, please keep this in mind, this is the most powerful tool these sadistic monsters have in their evil arsenal. They know they can divide and conquer with just that one tool. As a matter of fact, they can count on this "crazy card" every time, wth every crime and act of electronic Torture they committ. Anyone who tries to assert their human rights gets further labeled as "needing help" which effectively removes lawful help we all deseerve. These evil people get away with slowly poisoning good innocent people to death using their wide variety of almost impossible to detect directed energy weapons. As I type at this very moment, I feel sharp pains pop up in my back, feet, hands, head and heart. I could not even make this kind of nightmare up if I had tried. There is a family of electronic torturers and gang criminals above our apt bombarding both my wife and I with extremely dangerous cancer and heart attack causing radio waves. They easily convert old microwave ovens, stun guns, radar guns and others into these almost impossible to detect direct energy weapons. This family have also acted as Quasi Superintendents of this building for over 30 years. They, along with the landlords and owners have tried five times to evict my wife and I for literally no good reason. Each time they would drag us into an eviction hearing at the Landlord and Tenant Board of Ontario and each time they lost, thanks to our legal team at Aboriginal Legal Services here in Toronto.
Even with many months of compelling audio and video Evidence, the police would not listen to our claims, nor would they even watch or listen to our evidence. They took the gang families word that they were using a nail gun to replace the floors, which is true but, anyone with half a brain would laugh off those lies. The clicking electrical switch sounds that we recorded over the past several months were obviously not from a nail gun. As a matter of fact, when we called the police, the dispatcher was very supportive, that is until she ran my name! True I have a small criminal record with several theft under convictions from almost twenty years ago (all of which I pled guilty to) but this dispatcher went from caring to cold in just under two seconds. My gut, my knowledge and other covert moves of my own told me that i am on a very secret and very dirty terror watch list. For what, stealing books? Indeed, when police attended, three officers showed up and the six foot seven officer was sporting a shiny new taser gun, unbuckled. The irony was the senior officers attempt at covert twisted humour. I was never ever charged with any violent crime, so, perhaps someone would be able to tell me why the police would show up with this attitude and pre thought of preparation? The second the officers showed up, the senior officer immediayely began mocking me! The worst part of that day was the officers sharing a good laugh with the gang stalking family;at our expense? The officer also told me that I was a quote, unquote "nut.". Well see wont we?
GANG STALKING FAMILY BELONG TO A VAST GANG ORGANIZATION
I finally understand the truth, motivations and reasons behind most of these terrible mass shootings of people and police. Many of these shooters complained and pointed to Electronic torture and the methodical and certain destruction of their career, business and family for causing their ultimate decision to kill police and people. Noone will ever understand the hell these criminals put us through, that is until they themselves are put on this life destruction list. Not only are Targets designated to modern day, long, slow, painful and extremely lonely murder, but these organized stalkers and Electronic Torturers get off on slithering around lying about targets everywhere the target goes, shops, works, comducts business and the list goes on and on. These monsters do this to retired seniors, or, what I refer to as mentors. The more liked or creative a person is, the more they want to destroybtjeir lives. I totally understand a targets wanting revenge. Why not leave this backwards world cheerishing the looks on these perps faces when they realize it is their turn to feel fear, shock, disarray and incredible pain and uttet hopelessness that we Targeted Individuals feel every damn day at the hands of these twisted perp monsters hands.
The sad part of this gangs management is that most of them are very brilliant minds. They are highly intelligent managers but the dangerous gang members they hire on street level are just punk hackers and are laughingly referred to as "soldiers" by their own criminal organization. These soldiers gang up on unsuspecting citizens of our great Country and wear them down, first psychologically, using well proven fascist Stasi methods. These so called soldiers spread lies, mostly terrible damaging lies to neighbours and family, like they have with me. We good citizens are separated from the herd, bombarded with a variety of microwave and direct energy weapons until we go insane or fall ill or worse, fall to our death via a direct energy induced heart attack, stroke or other method made to look like a so calledb"natural death." These gangs upper mgmt arm their fellow perps with all kinds of hi tech tools, hardware, software and apps. The joke though, is also on these soldiers because they honestly and fully believe they are part of the new revolution and their leaders care about them! Nothing could be further from the truth. Retired former high level operatives have told me that amoung the most murders upper management order are their own soldiers who slack off or who make unplanned mistakes. If only all the soldiers could be told this one fact, all at the same time, with proof, that would be presto, no more soldiers tovtake all the risks, to make only $20 bucks an hour along disproportionate risk and prison time and soon, all the acts of extreme and violent and sudden revenge.
Let us not forget another covert fact that I was also told, that the cancer, blood radiation and a list of atleast eighteen other illnesses that almost always cause immediate and very painfull death, are not only untreatable but, are close to 2500% more prevalent and life ending amoungst the operators than to the victims on the receiving end of their torture. If you dont beileve this then go try to look it up. Most likely you will find nothing. Experts will be quick to point out that where there is no info on something specific, more often than not,it usually points to the plain to see fact that it is being hidden, and trust me, it is.
TARGETED CANADIANS NEVER EVER GET OFF THIS GANGS LIST ALIVE
Why all this expense and effort you may ask? Thats easy, return on investment, that is these gangs pay fraudulent monthly insurance premiums on their tatgets, all over the world so that when a target finally does die, they collect tens of millions of dollars in again, 100% fraudulent payouts. If we dont collectively stand up to this horror show, each time a target dies, ten more innocent Canadian citizens become new targets and evil, vicious cycle continues.
MORE ABOUT BEING ON THE TARGETED INDIVIDUAL LIST
When you are nominated and entered into this covert killing machine as a targeted Individual, your life instantly ceases to be your own. From that moment, you are to be followed by hideous criminal gang members who operate with 90% immunity, protected by throngs of middle gang managers who have access to police, fire, ambulance, medical and government people who all work for this new incideous fascist communist regime. These traitors, seditionists, murderers and scum have all but taken over Canada. I myself am being basically tortured around the clock by a neighbouring criminal gang stalking family. Even with months of more than compelling and troubling vifeo, audio evidence, The police called me insane and laughed in my face. This gang has even made infiltrated my family. because when i finally reached out to my high ranking retired Interpol/RCMP Father and Mother and best friend, all they could say was that maybe I should get mental help! So you see the absolutely horrific and hopeless situation that we targeted victims are in? I have even sent video and audio of their attacks on me ad well as video showing my healthy heart rate and pulse going from 87 all the way up to 140 bpm in under 3 minutes flat. This explosion of my heart rate is consistent with what my wife and I have been experiencing for a couple years now, but much less often than tofay which is, literally every sleepimg and waking moment. This family of five is hell bent on causing mine or both of our demises by causing a heart attack, stroke or even cancer by assaulting us to a non stop barrage of deadly microwave radiation with their incideous weapons.I have honestly months of video and audio evidence that clearly show this families pattern of following me around our apt from their apt directly above. They are obviously using some type of tech that can see me wherever i go. My wife verifies that the moment I awake and go to our washroom, we both hear their footsteps follow me from above. Then, in 99% of these times, wherever I stop, they too stop and always they then plop down something heavy and metallic on their floor above. Then, within 30 to 60 seconds, I experience sudden hot flashes, inexplicable sudden onset of stomach butterflies which are then always followed by extremely troubling and downright terrifying heart palipitations. Some of their ttacks are more aggressive than others. They attack harder or more aggressive whenever i have the audacity to try to shelter myself from their attacks! We live in the greatest country on the planet, but how the hell did this obvious takeover take place. Everyday and night our life in this apt is a literal hell on earth because of this organized gang of stalkers, liars and murderers. We are law abiding citizens, we both litetally have survived multiple attempts on our lives while barely surviving homelessness together twenty years ago here in Toronto. We have both overcome severe, long term alcohol, crack, cocaine and opiate addictions. We both still struggle with depression and a lack of self worth as the result of our former self destructive lifestyles. We both live with tremendous guilt, especially considering the decades of hurting and disappointing those we love so very dearly.. We have already paid a hefty price for this and we have both lost most of our so precious friends in out lives. Still, we had motored forward, we admit far too slowly but we did manage to build an impressive multi channel, hyperlocal, low cost business model that connects underemployed creatve and cultural workers to local businesses and shops. All businesses need marketing, but priced low enough to continue marketing on an ongoing basis. Our cteative Members work for less to help shops in their own neighbouthood in teturn for cash paid the same day as the contract is fulfilled. Our years of research, product and services testing and fulfilling local marketing contracts have helped us to drill down into very certain business niches and our fifth business plan shows this. Even before COVID, there was an urgent need for ongoing and low cost advertising and marketing across omni channels both online and offline together. We connect online and offline together as a rule or mission statement simply by utilizing qr codes to even marketing playing fields. We believe that we could be one of the first independent businesses to develop QR Code classifieds as well as QR Code Shops, which are basically paper points of sale. We had worked long and hard to figure out how we could custom design, build, further develop and then market test and then launch our own very own automated business and QR Code publications. We research the products and setvices to sell and then we design each paper store, configure qr codes, print the posters, flyera and stickers and then distribute them throughout one Neighbourhood at a time. We then use Google Analytics to watch sales live as they happen! All of this ground breaking work is not at the hands of a delusional indane man, like these criminal gangs assert. We've even developed our own digital out of home ad networks that work in conjunction with all of our, and equally our local clients marketing, online ecommerce and offline print publishing goods and services. We have even attracted expert investors who clearly see validity in our bisiness model. We could go on forever but right now, we are in urgently in need of your help to save our lives, especially my life because as Leona will testify in court, they target and attack me around the clock, absolutely and literally! They cause sudden and extremely dangerous spikes in my heart rate, not a couple times a day but, many dozens of times each day and night, awake or asleep!! They also cause sudden sharp pains and or numbness in the back of my head, burns on feet and legs and too much to go into right at this moment. Please someone help us. There just has to ve someone out there who will believe our nightmare. This gang family wont stop until i am dead. There just has to be one person, one detective one politician who can and will help. I pray that readers of this article will reach out to good people im law enforcement in Toronto or Canada. Most honest readers of this letter will clearly see that I am not insane and this is all 100% fact and our lives are in imminent danger. If only one person could conduct some type of scan of our apt to see what is happening to us.
This is exactly why we started this organization, to team up with millions of others going through this hell too. One of our central missions is to build an action advisory board that will act mediayely on behalf of other innocent Targeted Individuals by making calla, emails, paper lettera urging action from rach Targeted Individuals own community. In this way, they too will be believed! Thank you and God Bless You. Gotdon Welke and Leona Sackaney, Toronto, Ontario Canada.
MORE ON THEIR ATTACKS
Here is how their attacks un fold: Through endless years of living here we too thought their following us was somehow innocent. However, I really took notice in the past months that when i stop to use the washroom ,shower, cook, sit to work on computer and, if you can believe, while we sleep or watch a classic movie, these sick and horrible people begin their incideous and invasive attacks right through their floor and down through our ceiling onto both of us innocent, loving, accepting, rent paying Canadian citizens.
LIFE INSURANCE FRAUD WITH NO TOUCH MURDER AT THE CENTRE OF ALL THIS TORTURE
My wife finally knows for certain what they are up to. I have had notes dropped to me yelling me that i am being set up for electronic murder so these gangs can collect big life insurance claims after paying years of secret very high monthly payments that pay off in the millions should they succeed in murdering me or directly causing mine or Leonas severe illness or cancer. I/we ate all alone. There is no help for us, or so it seems. I get that this all sounds like far too much but, just dont fall for their evil incideous game, where anyone, any good human being that dare speak out about these crimes are labeled as delusional, schitzophrenic or insane. Please do your own Independent research and most importantly, listen to your heart or follow your gut, please.
So, What's happened to our true north and free, the Canada we knew? This hurts me to tell you all but, these organized fascist gangs are now closer and closer to full and total control of our government, our police and our emergency services and most likely our military as well, basically our country we hold so dear. You have been fooled, we have been fooled, our collective goodness has been taken as weakness time amd time again. The only way to stop a total fall of the leftover good in our Canada is not through any violence, because that is exactly what this gang wants. We must, and I do mean we must, Unite and stand up for each other trying every conceivable legal and peaceful method we can. If this fails, we all know what could be coming our way, dont we?
MORE BACKGROUND ON CRIMINAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Please know that every community in Canada is involved and thia Nazi organization can just go ahead and illegally put any innocent Canadian on their targeted list. They then go ahead and illegally create a completely fake history. Yeah and then they enlist other so-called soldiers are also gang stalkers to assist in spreading lies to family and community, employers and potential business funders and banks. These gang members are committing domestic terrorism, electronic murder and treason to say the least. The so-called experts say that there's tens of thousands of targeted individuals but this is not true. In reality there's Millions yes millions in Canada alone!! These organized stalkers, also widely finally being called perps and most recently referred to as "despicables," can nominate any innocent Canadian to be put on their very illegal but very powerful terrorist watch list. Can you imagine this is where we at in Canada. This is not fear mongering, this is not mental illness, this is the horrifying absolute fact and truth. So you may ask me how I know this how I know it's all true? I know this because I am on their targeted list!
I want the world to know Who is doing this to me. My experience, like many TI's, is hell and these monsters have our hands tied unless we join together and begin to fight back with everything we've got! I have quickly accumulated this unwanted expertise and I can say that I also have media, marketing and a long list of additional transferrable skill sets to develop and launch an organization to help ourselves, but, not without your help. Please join us, we need big numbers to get the message out to our politicians. We members can jump into action inviting authorities, lawyers, security experts and so on so forth. Just what they're attacking me with we can't say for certain but I do have months of shocking videos that show the absolute arrogance and severity of what they are doing to us, and Around the clock! Whayever they are doing to me is the same game 24 hours a day. They follow me until I stop somewhere in our apartment and then, they plop down something metallic, their Direct Energy weapon of some sort and they hit me by flicking some type of switch. I have even recorded this weapon recharging after they discharge it on me.
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