Last Thursday I wrote a post analyzing the Gaskin RBBC situation pre-game. I intended to write a post-game sooner but I got busy and so here we are now. So, let's get straight to it.
On Thursday night we saw Gaskin truly separate himself from the pack.
Attempts:

vs Jaguars	Attempts	Yards	Avg	TD
Myles Gaskin	22	66	3.0	0
Matt Breida	3	4	1.3	0
Jordan Howard	3	1	0.3	1
Other	8	67	N/A	1
Total	36	138	1.5	2

Receiving work:

vs Jaguars	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Avg
Myles Gaskin	5	5	29	5.8
Matt Breida	0	0	0	0
J. Howard	0	0	0	0
Total	5	5	29	N/A

These numbers reaffirm something many of us already now know. Myles Gaskin has, until proven otherwise, secured the lead role in the Dolphins backfield and it isn't close. Looking back on the previous two weeks, this trend was becoming apparent and is now solidified. Let's look at another interesting statistic.
Redzone Attempts:

Last 2 Weeks	Redzone Attempts	Goalline Attempt	Yards	TD	Percentage
Myles Gaskin	2	0	11	0	16.7%
J. Howard	5	5	1	2	41.7%
Matt Breida	3	0	9	0	25%
Other	2	0	N/A	0	16.7%
Total	12	5	21	2	100.1%

vs Jaguars	Redzone Attempts	Goalline Attempt	Yards	TD	Percentage
Myles Gaskin	9	0	18	0	69.2%
J. Howard	3	3	1	1	23.1%
Matt Breida	0	0	0	0	0%
Ryan Fitzmagic	1	0	1	1	7.7%
Total	13	3	20	2	100%

Looking at the data paints an interesting picture, many are under the impression that Jordan Howard will vulture away Gaskin TDs. While Howard certainly has vultured 3 TDS so far this season it is on a disgusting 8 attempts for 2 yards and 3 TDs line. Howard is almost exclusively used for goalline situations. Gaskin meanwhile has seen an encouraging uptick in RedZone usage, commanding an impressive 69% of touches against the Jaguars among rush attempts in the RZ. Gaskin is bound to get his, just don't hold your breath from 1-yd out.
Another encouraging area for Gaskin is his receiving work, to reiterate:

vs Jaguars	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Avg
Myles Gaskin	5	5	29	5.8

Gaskin continues to catch his targets at an astoundingly efficient rate. Gaskin is 4th in receiving yards with 91, T-3 in targets with 16, and 1st in receptions with 15 for the Dolphins team. Additionally, Gaskin commands a healthy 16.7% target share for the Dolphins and runs a route on 67% of pass plays run.
An interesting question to consider going forward is, how will OC Chan Gailey utilize Gaskin as the primary back as the season progresses? Looking back to Gailey's offenses to the Bills in 2010-2012 and the Jets 2015-2016 the running back position was utilized heavily in the passing game. For these statistics, I will combine and total the top two RBs each year during Gailey's tenure per team.
RB utilization:

RBs under Gailey	Attempts	Yards	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Receiving TD/Rushing TD
Bills	895	4386	286	210	1759	8/24
Jets	666	2918	218	165	1256	6/18
Total	1561	7304	504	375	3015	14/42

As evidenced here, backs in Gailey's offense are expected to be reliable pass-catchers and are targeted heavily. This lends itself to Gaskin's skillset as a smaller pass-catching back. A very interesting bit of information I gathered looking through these statistics is that Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starting QB in every single one of these years under Gailey. So a continuation of previous trends can be reasonably expected.
Last but not least, let's look into Gaskin's upcoming matchup with Seattle. As predicted last week, the Jaguars continued their efforts as a solid defensive front against the run. Allowing only 3.4 ypc on 29 attempts for 100 yards between the RBs. However, the Dolphins managed to get things done off of a couple of Minshew turnovers and an unimpressive pass defense. As suspected, Gaskin faced resistance on the ground but was able to make up for it through the air for PPR owners. Looking forward Gaskin faces an even tougher matchup on the ground against a formidable Seahawks run defense ranked 2nd in the league with 66.7 yards/game that only allowed 34 yards on 14 attempts for Elliot last week. However, we are once again looking to bet on Gaskin to produce through the air against a Seahawk's pass defense ranked dead last with 430 yards/game that allowed the Cowboys 472 yards through the air. The Seahawks also struggled to get to Dak through an ailing Cowboys' oline but managed to put a little pressure on Prescott.
Receiving stats by RBs last 3 weeks:

vs	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Avg
Falcons	10	7	11	1.6
Patriots	7	4	47	6.7
Cowboys	12	7	19	2.7
Total	29	18	77	N/A

Based on these statistics, the Seahawks allow a 62.1% completion rate to RBs. However, they do not seem to allow very much yardage after the fact. The Falcons failed to capitalize on their 7 receptions, Rex Burkhead for the Patriots managed to have a solid receiving day from a PPR standpoint, and finally, Elliot also appears to have failed to capitalize on his opportunities but achieved PPR worth due to his high number of receptions. I would like to point out that, after watching the entirety of the Cowboys' game, Elliot uncharacteristically dropped at least 3 easy passes from Dak that could've gone for solid gains and an additional 3 points.
Taking everything into consideration, this will be Gaskin's toughest matchup to date. Gaskin faces an ever tougher and better coached run defense. But, following the trend, Gaskin has opportunities against a weak Hawk pass defense. Look for Gaskin to get checkdown work against a soft Hawk's secondary and hope for more receiving work while tempering your expectations on the ground. If the Dolphins fall behind quickly against the overwhelming Hawks' offense a positive game script can boost Gaskin's PPR work. On a side note, I expect the Dolphins receivers and possibly Gesicki to have a great week against a weak secondary, while the battered Hawks' stars safety Jamal Adams and CB Quinton Dunbar deal with injuries that may keep them out this week.
Edit: Almost forgot, if the numbers don't speak to you, please listen to an endorsement from one of fantasyfootball's very own.

"Miami dolphin fan here and someone that watches Gaskin very closely, I also happen to work at SeaWorld... Miles is silky, SILKY, mahi-mahi, and a big BIG boy. Big ass boy. Swims hard as a man (SWIMS HARD), and the Fins are aware of this slick porpoise boy. They will feed him, feed him often, and hard, and he will squeak head off. Unbelievable."
- u/rybono

TL;DR - Gaskin secures Dolphins backfield while increasing RZ usage in a favorable Chan Gailey offense, but faces a tough test against the Seahawks.
Sources:
Last Week's Analysis
Dolphins vs Jaguars Stats
Dolphins RB Stats
Dolphins RB Goaline Usage
Dolphins RB RZ Usage
Gaskin Receiving Percentage
Chan Gailey Jet's Offensive Breakdown
Chan Gailey Dolphin's Expectations
Chan Gailey Bill's Stats
Chan Gailey Jet's Stats
NFL Rushing Defense Rankings
NFL Receiving Defense Rankings
Seahawks vs Cowboys Stats
Seahawks vs Patriots Stats
Seahawks vs Falcons Stats
Elliot Dropped Passes
Seahawks Injuries
Seahawk's Injury Report
Gaskin Week 3 NextGen Attempts

[Game Preview] Week 2 - Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles(0-1)

Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles season didn’t have the start they were looking for week 1 as they opened the season without their starting LT, RT, RG, RB, DT and WR and struggled against the Washington Football team to open their season with a loss. Luckily they will get two of those starters back this week in running back Miles Sanders and RT Lane Johnson. Both will be welcome additions as the Eagles struggled to block anyone against the Football Team both on the line and from the running back position. Additionally, getting a running game going will greatly help slow the pass rush which will be impressive as the Rams posted one of the best pressure rates last week led by All-Pro Aaron Donald. Hopefully Doug Pederson learns from his mistakes of last week and gets Carson moving with some designed rollouts and mixes up his play-calling more to establish the run. If Doug tries to do the same thing as last week it will be a long day for Carson and Donald will feast. On the other side of the ball, Schwartz had Slay follow McLaurin last week and it worked as Slay shut McLaurin down, but that is more difficult this week as the Rams have two talented receivers in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The Eagles will need to see how Maddox holds up on the outside with a bigger challenge this week. With the struggles of the Eagles offense and their injuries on that side of the ball, the Eagles will need their defenses to limit the quick scoring Rams offense or it will be a long day. Should be a good test for the Eagles to rebound after falling flat out of the gate last week. Go Birds!

Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)

The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles season didn’t have the start they were looking for week 1 as they opened the season without their starting LT, RT, RG, RB, DT and WR and struggled against the Washington Football team to open their season with a loss. Luckily they will get two of those starters back this week in running back Miles Sanders and RT Lane Johnson. Both will be welcome additions as the Eagles struggled to block anyone against the Football Team both on the line and from the running back position. Additionally, getting a running game going will greatly help slow the pass rush which will be impressive as the Rams posted one of the best pressure rates last week led by All-Pro Aaron Donald. Hopefully Doug Pederson learns from his mistakes of last week and gets Carson moving with some designed rollouts and mixes up his play-calling more to establish the run. If Doug tries to do the same thing as last week it will be a long day for Carson and Donald will feast. On the other side of the ball, Schwartz had Slay follow McLaurin last week and it worked as Slay shut McLaurin down, but that is more difficult this week as the Rams have two talented receivers in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The Eagles will need to see how Maddox holds up on the outside with a bigger challenge this week. With the struggles of the Eagles offense and their injuries on that side of the ball, the Eagles will need their defenses to limit the quick scoring Rams offense or it will be a long day. Should be a good test for the Eagles to rebound after falling flat out of the gate last week. Go Birds!

General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to [join us on Discord]https://discord.gg/HwwBbM3) during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest

Date
Sunday, September 20th, 2020

Game Time	Game Location
1:00 PM - Eastern	Lincoln Financial Field
12:00 PM - Central	1020 Pattison Ave
11:00 AM - Mountain	Philadelphia, PA 19148
10L00 AM - Pacific	Wikipedia - Map

Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 62°F
Feels Like: 62°F
Forecast: Clear. Clear throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 0%
Wind: Northeast 10 MPH

Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Even
OveUnder: 45.5
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 0-1, Los Angeles 0-1

Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Monday’s game to a national audience. Kevin Kugler will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Spielman will provide analysis. Laura Okmin will report from the sideline.
TV Map - Week 2 TV Coverage Map

Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming

Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	WIP-FM	94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA	WCTO-FM	96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey	WENJ-FM	97.3 FM
Levittown, PA	WBCB-AM	1490 AM
Northumberland, PA	WEGH-FM	107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA	WPPA-AM	1360 AM
Reading, PA	WEEU-AM	830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA	WEJL-FM	96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WEJL-AM	630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WBAX-AM	1240 AM
Williamsport, PA	WBZD-FM	93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE	WDEL-FM/AM	101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA	WSOX-FM	96.1 FM

Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	LA MEGA	105.7 FM
Allentown, PA	WSAN	1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ	WIBG	1020 AM; 101.3 FM

Rams Radio
Rams Radio J.B. Long will handle the play-by-play duties and former pro bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew will provide analysis. D'Marco Farr will report from the sidelines.

National Radio
N/A

Satellite Radio

Station	Eagles Channel	Rams Channel
Sirius Radio	SIRI 98 (Streaming 825)	SIRI 156 (Streaming 818)
XM Radio	XM 231 (Streaming 825)	(Streaming 818)
Sirius XM Radio	SXM 231 (Streaming 825)	SXM 386 (Streaming 818)

Eagles Social Media	Rams Social Media
Website	Website
Facebook	Facebook
Twitter	Twitter
Instagram	Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles	Snapchat: snaptherams

NFC East Standings

NFC EAST	Record	PCT	Home	Road	Div	Conf	PF	PA	Net Pts	Streak
Football Team	1-0	1.000	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	27	17	+10	1W
Eagles	0-1	.000	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	17	27	-10	1L
Cowboys	0-1	.000	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-1	17	20	-3	1L
Giants	0-1	.000	0-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	16	26	-10	1L

Series Information
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Los Angeles Rams (Philadelphia Eagles lead series, 22-19-1)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
September 21, 1937 at Philadelphia Municipal Stadium, Philadelphia, PA. Cleveland Rams 21 Philadelphia Eagles 3
Points Leader
Philadelphia Eagles lead the Los Angeles Rams (843-842)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 2-0 against the Rams
Sean McVay: 0-2 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Sean McVay: Pederson leads 2-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Rams: 1-0
Jared Goff: Against Eagles: 0-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Jared Goff: Wentz leads 1-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead Rams: 2-0
Record @ Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: Rams lead Eagles 5-4-1

Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 21 - Rams No. 09
Record
Eagles: 0-1
Rams: 1-0
Last Meeting
Sunday, December 12th, 2018
Eagles 30 - Rams 23
Nick Foles filled in for the injured Carson Wentz, taking up his spot under center after three months without game action. Foles promptly recaptured the magic, passing for 270 yards and confidently leading the Eagles to a 30-23 win over the Rams on Sunday night with plenty of help from his defense and his playmakers. Foles got plenty of help from his running game as Wendell Smallwood rushed for two touchdowns and rookie Josh Adams ran for another score as the Eagles (7-7) kept their playoff hopes quite viable with a gritty victory over the Rams (11-3), who lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time in coach Sean McVay's tenure.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last Meeting at Site
Sunday December 10th, 2017
Eagles 43 - Rams 35
Carson Wentz threw for 291 yards and four touchdowns before leaving with a knee injury and Jake Elliott kicked the go-ahead 33-yard field goal with 3:45 left for the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Los Angeles Rams 43-35 in a thriller Sunday to clinch the NFC East title.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap

Last 10 Meetings

Date	Winner	Loser	Score
12/16/18	Eagles	Rams	30-23
12/10/17	Eagles	Rams	43-35
10/05/14	Eagles	Rams	34-28
09/11/11	Eagles	Rams	31-13
09/07/08	Eagles	Rams	38-3
12/18/05	Eagles	Rams	17-16
12/27/04	Rams	Eagles	20-7
12/01/02	Eagles	Rams	10-3
01/27/02	Rams	Eagles	29-24
09/09/01	Rams	Eagles	20-17

Injury Reports	Depth Charts
Eagles	Eagles
Rams	Rams

2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 2 - "Expert" Picks

2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Rams Season Stats

2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)

2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)

Passing

Name	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Wentz	34	42	57.1%	270	2	3	72.5
Goff	20	31	64.5%	275	0	1	79.4

Rushing

Name	ATT	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Scott	9	35	35	3.9	0
Brown	18	79	79.9	4.4	2

Receiving

Name	REC	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Goedert	8	101	101	12.6	1
Woods	6	105	105.0	17.5	0

Sacks

Name	Sacks	Team Total
Sweat	1	3
Donald/Floyd/Brockers	1.0	3

Tackles

Name	Total	Solo	Assist	Sacks
Gerry	10	5	5	0.0
Fuller	8	5	3	0.0

Interceptions

Name	Ints	Team Total
N/A	0	0
N/A	0	0

Punting

Name	ATT	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	IN 20	TB	BP
Johnston	5	268	62	53.6	50.2	3	0	0
Hekker	3	142	58	47.3	40.7	2	0	0

Kicking

Name	ATT	MADE	%	LONG	PAT
Elliot	2	1	50.0%	38	2/2
Sloman	3	2	66.6%	35	2/2

Kick Returns

Name	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
NA	0	0	0	0	0
Webster	1	20.0	20.0	40	0

Punt Returns

Name	RET	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Raegor	2	6	3.0	6	0	2
N/A	0	0	0	0	0	0

League Rankings 2020

Offense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Rams Stat	Rams Rank
Total Offense	265.0	29th	422.0	5th
Rush Offense	57.0	30th	153.0	6th
Pass Offense	208.0	T-21st	269.0	8th
Points Per Game	17.0	T-23rd	20.0	T-19th
3rd-Down Offense	35.7%	23rd	52.9	8th
4th-Down Offense	0.0%	T-17th	100.0	T-1st
Red Zone Offense (TD%)	50.0%	T-18th	40.0%	T-25th

Defense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Rams Stat	Rams Rank
Total Defense	239.0	1st	380.0	22nd
Rush Defense	80.0	5th	136.0	22nd
Pass Defense	159.0	3rd	244.0	20th
Points Per Game	27.0	T-21st	17.0	T-8th
3rd-Down Defense	27.8%	5th	25.0%	T-3rd
4th-Down Defense	50.0%	T-19th	33.3%	T-17th
Red Zone Defense (TD%)	75.0%	T-20th	50.0%	T-9th

Team

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Rams Stat	Rams Rank
Turnover Diff.	-3	31st	-1	T-19th
Penalties Per Game	3.0	T-2nd	5.0	T-8th
Penalty Yards Per Game	20.0	T-2nd	34.0	6th

Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - In a near-reversal of the previous season's opener, the Eagles scored the first 17 points, only for the Washington Football Team to then shut their offense out for the remainder of the afternoon. Meanwhile, Washington's offense scored 27 unanswered points, and the defense sacked Carson Wentz eight times, recorded two interceptions, and forced three fumbles. With the loss, Philadelphia's six-game winning streak against Washington was snapped dating back to Week 14 of the 2016 season, and the Eagles lost the first game of the season since 2015.
Rams - Playing their first game ever in their brand-new home at SoFi Stadium, the Rams held off the Cowboys in a close battle of NFC contenders. Receiving the opening kickoff (from former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein), Los Angeles drove 75 yards in seven plays, with Malcolm Brown scoring the new stadium's first touchdown on a 1-yard run. Rookie kicker Samuel Sloman missed on his first field goal attempt, a 29-yard try that bounced off the left upright near the end of the first quarter, but later was successful on field goals of 35 and 31 yards in the second quarter. However, Dallas took a 14-13 halftime lead as Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott scored on both a touchdown run and a touchdown reception. The Rams reclaimed the lead as Malcolm Brown (who finished with a team-high 18 rushes for 79 yards) scored his second touchdown of the game on a 2-yard run midway through the third quarter to put Los Angeles ahead 20-14. Zuerlein converted a 33-yard field goal late in the third quarter, but it would be as close as the Cowboys would get. Rookie safety Jordan Fuller led the Rams with eight total tackles, including a key tackle of Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb on a fourth-and-3 play at the Rams' 9-yard line, just one yard short of a first down to kill a Dallas scoring drive.

Recap from Last Week’s Games.

Eagles - In a near-reversal of the previous season's opener, the Eagles scored the first 17 points, only for the Washington Football Team to then shut their offense out for the remainder of the afternoon. Meanwhile, Washington's offense scored 27 unanswered points, and the defense sacked Carson Wentz eight times, recorded two interceptions, and forced three fumbles. With the loss, Philadelphia's six-game winning streak against Washington was snapped dating back to Week 14 of the 2016 season, and the Eagles lost the first game of the season since 2015.

Rams - Playing their first game ever in their brand-new home at SoFi Stadium, the Rams held off the Cowboys in a close battle of NFC contenders. Receiving the opening kickoff (from former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein), Los Angeles drove 75 yards in seven plays, with Malcolm Brown scoring the new stadium's first touchdown on a 1-yard run. Rookie kicker Samuel Sloman missed on his first field goal attempt, a 29-yard try that bounced off the left upright near the end of the first quarter, but later was successful on field goals of 35 and 31 yards in the second quarter. However, Dallas took a 14-13 halftime lead as Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott scored on both a touchdown run and a touchdown reception. The Rams reclaimed the lead as Malcolm Brown (who finished with a team-high 18 rushes for 79 yards) scored his second touchdown of the game on a 2-yard run midway through the third quarter to put Los Angeles ahead 20-14. Zuerlein converted a 33-yard field goal late in the third quarter, but it would be as close as the Cowboys would get. Rookie safety Jordan Fuller led the Rams with eight total tackles, including a key tackle of Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb on a fourth-and-3 play at the Rams' 9-yard line, just one yard short of a first down to kill a Dallas scoring drive.

Connections
Rams QB Jared Goff and Eagles QB Carson Wentz were selected 1st and 2nd in the 2016 NFL draft after both teams traded up.
Eagles S Rodney McLeod played for the Rams from 2012-16.
Eagles CB Nickell Robey-Coleman played for the Rams from 2017-19.
Eagles LB coach Ken Fajole was defensive coordinator of the Rams for three seasons from 2009−2011.
Eagles TE Zach Ertz went to Stanford (2009-13) and is from Orange County, CA.
Eagles Director of Sports Performance Ted Rath worked for the Rams from 2017-2019 as their Strength and Conditioning Coach (2017) and Director of Strength Training and Performance (2018-2019).
Eagles Special assistant to the general manager Connor Barwin played for the Rams in 2018.

2020 Pro Bowlers

Eagles	Rams
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)	DT Aaron Donald (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)	CB Jalen Ramsey
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt

General
Referee: Brad Allen
Philadelphia has produced a 22-19-1 (.536) record in the all-time series vs. Los Angeles. The Eagles own a 6-game winning streak against the Rams, scoring 30+ points in 5 straight contests.
Philadelphia is 15-8 (.652) in home games vs. Los Angeles, with victories in each of the last 2 such meetings (last: W, 34-28 on 10/5/14 at Lincoln Financial Field).
The Eagles are 23-9 (.719) at home in the regular season under head coach Doug Pederson, which marks the 5th-best home winning percentage in the NFL since 2016, trailing only New En-gland (.818, 27-6), Baltimore (.758, 25-8), Kansas City (.758, 25-8) and New Orleans (.727, 24-9).
Philadelphia has captured all 4 of its home openers with Doug Pederson at the helm (since 2016). Pederson is one of only two head coaches in Eagles history to win each of their first 4 home openers with the team, joining Joe Kuharich (1964-67).
In Week 1 at Washington, Philadelphia allowed only 239 total yards (80 rushing, 5th; 159 passing, 3rd), which were the fewest by any defense in the NFL during kickoff weekend. The Eagles limited Washington to just 27.8% (5-of-18) on third downs, which was also the 5th-best mark in the league.

Draft Picks

Eagles	Rams
WR Jalen Raegor	RB Cam Akers
QB Jalen Hurts	WR Van Jefferson
LB Davion Taylor	OLB Terrell Lewis
S K’Von Wallace	S Terrel Burgess
OT Jack Driscoll	TE Brycen Hopkins
WR John Hightower	S Jordan Fuller
LB Shaun Bradley	LB Clay Johnston
WR Quez Watkins	K Sam Sloman
OT Prince Tega Wanogho	G Tremayne Achrum
LB/DE Casey Toohill

Notable Off-season Additions

Eagles	Rams
S Will Parks	DT A’Shawn Robinson
DT Javon Hargrave	OLB Leonard Floyd
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
CB Darius Slay
	S Sean Davis
	WR Cody Latimer
	CB Kendell Fuller
	RB JD McKissic
	G Wes Schweitzer

Notable Off-season Departures

Eagles	Rams
S Malcom Jenkins	DE Dante Fowler Jr.
CB Ronald Darby	RB Todd Gurley
RB Jordan Howard	WR Brandin Cooks
WR Nelson Agholor	LB Cory Littleton
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai	S Eric Weddle
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill	CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
RB Darren Sproles	WR Jojo Natson
DT Timmy Jernigan	WR Mike Thomas
LB Nigel Bradham	LB Clay Matthews
	QB Blake Bortles

Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (99) needs 1 passing TDs for 100 career passing TDs.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6322) needs 145 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (51) needs 3.5 sacks to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (48) needs 2.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27) needs 1 sack to move up to 19th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Darwin Walker

Rams WR Cooper Kupp (2636) needs 28 yards to move up to 16th on the Rams all-time receiving list passing WR Carroll Dale

Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (join.profootballfocus.com/edge/)
WDB Matchups (CAPS = expected shadow coverage)

Stats to Know

Pressure Rate

It doesn’t take advanced stats to know that Wentz spent most of Sunday under significant pressure. Washington sacked him eight times behind a makeshift offensive line that struggled to contain the Football Team’s pass rush. The Eagles allowed a 34% pressure rate Sunday, according to ESPN Next Gen Stats. That was the third-worst in the NFL. Five different Washington players generated at least four pressures. And it doesn’t get any easier against the Rams. The Cowboys allowed a 40.5% pressure rate Sunday night in their loss to the Rams, which was the second-worst mark of Week 1. And a big reason for that was Rams star Aaron Donald. Donald — the six-time Pro Bowler, five-time All-Pro and two-time AP Defensive Player of the Year who has 44 sacks over the past three seasons — posted a 28.6% pressure rate on Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott himself. He pressured Prescott 10 times for 35 pass rushes and finished with four tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss and four quarterback hits. According to Next Gen Stats, Donald’s pressure rate over the past three seasons is 13.5%, 13.9% and 14.6%. The Eagles offensive line is going to have to be ready or it is going to be another long Sunday for Carson Wentz.

Matchups to Watch
Carson Wentz vs. Himself
I note this matchup not to downplay the Rams and what they bring to the table, but to note that Wentz had plenty of mistakes that ultimately cost us the week 1 matchup. Change nothing of the game last week, bad OL, questionable scheming especially in the second half, Carson Wentz playing better wins us the game. Things were bad around him and he actively made them worse at times. These two things can be true: Wentz cost us the week 1 game and he should bounce back because he is a really good QB. This isn't the sky is falling, #TankForTrevor blurb, it's simply acknowledging the biggest change from week 1 to week 2 that would aid in a victory - Carson Wentz returning to form. There was also a lot of good last week, namely the first half! Check out the first TD throw to Ertz. Short, compressed field where he needs to make a snap decision and he comes off his first read (JJAW) and hits Ertz for 6. This is a great play by Wentz where he showed how good he is capping off a great drive. We need more of this consistency. Wentz was even missing on staples of the offense. He was erratic in the pocket and regularly off target. I love hero ball, I hate when QBs play scared, but better urgency and avoiding negative plays in the pocket would go a long way in smoothing out the rough edges of his game. It's infuriating to have some of the same issues he had in year 3 continue in year 5. Regardless, Wentz is a really good QB, so he should be expected to bounce back from a bad game every QB has once in a while. It just needs to happen quickly so the Eagles don't fall behind in the young season. This Rams secondary has a phenomenal CB in Jalen Ramsey and a really good young safety in John Johnson III; they aren't slouches. Wentz needs to be better and it would be surprising if he isn't.
Eagles (downright) Offensive Line vs. Aaron Donald and the Rams Pass Rush
Washington may have a better, deeper defensive line but they don't have Aaron Donald. He is so good he lifts a pass rush up to the top tiers of the league on his own given his dominance and versatility. Donald isn't just a Defensive Tackle; he'll line up inside and outside while wrecking every part of the OL he can along the way. Just look at what Baldy has in his review for him this week. This is a problematic matchup for Philly given their patchwork offensive line. Even though there were positive things some of the new guys did, they made a lot of mistakes, and will continue to do so in their young careers. The last time the Eagles played the Rams in 2018, Philly held Donald to 2 total pressures in probably his most ineffective game during the course of his DPOY season. The difference between that Eagles OL and this one is the health. Philly won't have a healthy Brandon Brooks; while they'll have Lane Johnson again it'll be in his first start of the season, he's coming off a late summer ankle procedure. So his effectiveness is still TBD. JP, who also played in that game, has also declined a considerable amount since then. One player returning to the field Sunday that should also give the Eagles a boost in pass protection is Miles Sanders. Not only is Sanders the best runner on the team, he's also the best pass blocking running back on the team. This alone won't stop Donald, but it should help. This defensive front from the Rams can get pushed around in the run game (more on that later) but can absolutely get after it in the pass rush department. Dallas doesn't have the line it used to either and Dak was under pressure at a roughly 42% rate, among the worst in week 1. The return of Lane Johnson should increase the effectiveness of this OL a considerable amount but given the new parts there will still be an adjustment period. This unit needs to come together quickly and the coaching staff needs to actually focus their game plan on helping their OL much more so than they did in week 1. Otherwise, expect Donald and his homies to bring the pain up front.
Eagles Pass Rush vs Rams OL
Even with some of the sustained injuries on this roster, the Eagles still have a formidable pass rush and flashed it quite a bit in week 1. The box score stats are highly deceiving in this area as Washington shifted their game plan quite a bit as the game went along. Philly pressured Haskins at a 30% clip last week. That number isn't great considering the state of Washington's offensive line. However, Haskins had the quickest time to throw in the NFL in week 1 with an average time to throw of 2.13 seconds. It's extremely difficult to pressure QBs when they get the ball out that quickly. Last week, Jared Goff was 8th in the NFL in this category, which will present some challenges for the Eagles. Dallas pressured Goff at a 20% clip last week, which is a horrendous number. Goff is a good QB and will slice you up if you don't get to him. But when you do, oftentimes he's effectively standing in quick sand as he was a bottom 8 QB under pressure (by Rating) in 2019. It's imperative this defensive front plays well this week. We already saw Malik Jackson return to form, now we need Fletcher Cox. Philly should get Brandon Graham (concussion) and Derek Barnett (hammy) back this week which should increase the effectiveness of the pass rush. Josh Sweat has also shown tremendous growth in year 3 having the best game of his career this past Sunday with TY McGill flashing in limited snaps. This offensive line from the Rams underwent a mini make-over this offseason but still has some question marks up front. This will be a real test for them as the Eagles pass rush is much more formidable than the one Dallas offers. Furthermore, this is a defensive staff that has consistently gotten to Goff of late. Given the changes on both squads, this is a good measuring stick game in the trenches.
Eagles Coverage vs Rams Receivers
Jim Schwartz had Sean McVay's number in their most recent matchup in 2018 so I am curious to see who gets the upper hand this time around. The Rams have a really good WR room with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Josh Reynolds. They also have a good tight end in Tyler Higbee. Philly has their work cut out for them this week as the Rams are much deeper than Washington. The Rams passing attack was predicated on the short, quick game with a lot of motions and play action last week. Carson Wentz led the NFL in Average Intended Air Yards while Jared Goff was last. Goff's Average Intended Air Yards were 4.3 per attempt with roughly half his passing attempts coming within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Getting the ball to Goff's first read and out of his hands quickly is key as he can be an adventure when he is forced to hold onto the ball. McVay is really good at disguising what the Rams will do running multiple plays out of similar looks. Lastly, their receivers are great at getting quick separation and great getting yards after the catch. The defensive game plan for Philly in the secondary should look quite different this week than it did last week. There isn't one receiver the Eagles can key on for Slay to take away. I'd bet Schwartz moves him around quite a bit but with Woods as the primary recipient of special attention. Slay looked every bit as good as you'd expect last week and that's a huge addition to this secondary. One area of concern I have for Philly is the middle of the defense. This Eagles LB group is among the worst in the NFL in coverage; McVay is going to look to attack that relentlessly all game long. He did the same thing to Dallas last week. It was encouraging to see Rodney McLeod bounce back after a poor 2019 as he was every bit as spry as he once was. The rest of the middle of this defense leaves a lot to be desired. Either way, this is a deeper Rams receiving room, with a creative play-caller, and a better passer than the Eagles just faced. There was a lot of good to take from the defensive performance last week but they face a significant test Sunday in the Rams.

Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.

A bunch of dumb numbers that probably don't mean anything

NFL Showdown Breakdown (Cincy vs. Cleveland) from CheatSheetPros!

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys 10/11/2020 Tips, Results and Odds

Free NFL MAC Attack Pick - 6-2 on last 8 MAC ATTACKS - Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster Player Prop Predictions and Trends!

MLB (Main Slate) Pitchers & Stacks + Sports Betting Picks!

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Up arrow if you like the content! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday week! Yesterday we had Shane Bieber who went 5.0 innings with 10 Ks, Glasnow who went 5.1 with 3 ER but saved the day with 9 Ks and then our punt Antone who was cheap and went 5.0 with 1 ER and 6 Ks. We stacked White Sox (8 runs) and Tigers (10 runs) in our article. I’ve been working hard on the NFL CheatSheet for 2020 and excited to mix in some NFL breakdowns this year!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
MAX SCHERZER – I could see a full “fade” here on this short slate if you want to be different for GPP. His last 3 starts he has put up 14, 34 and 7 DK points but his BABIP is .365 so he is going to start getting a little more luck on his side. He has a 3.29 xFIP and allowing a .260 average. Priced at 10,400 on DK there is some risk here today with his recent form but with no many options you could go either way.
ZAC GALLEN – Now we come down to 9200 for Gallen who has a tough matchup vs. this SFG team that is 6th in their last 10 game power rankings and rank top 5 in our all team stats over the last 14 days. He has been stellar this year and coming into the start in great form. He has put up 28, 24, 19, 27 and 22 DK points in his last 5 starts. His ERA is 1.80 but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 3.67 which is still solid. Only allowing a .182 batting average.
DINELSON LAMET – We get a cheap price tag on Lamet today at only 8800 on DK. His last two starts he was priced at 9900 and 9800. Lamet has a solid K9 ratio at 11.5 this year and was 12.9 last year. He is facing a COL team that is striking out a whopping 26% of the time over the last 14 days and he is a -180 favorite. Padres should win this game and Lamet should get the win which is +4 points. Lamet has been sliding a little as he put up 37.8 DK points, then fell down to 25 and 22 and then 12 and 17 on his last two starts. He has upside with his 37.8 DK points going 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 11Ks for a high this year.
ZACH PLESAC – Only 7600 today on DK and has a soft matchup vs. KC. Plesac has put up 25, 28, 19 and 38 DK points in his last 4 starts and those combined for 27.0 innings, 4 ERs and 30 strikeouts. He just faced KC in his last start in KC and went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 6 strikeouts. CLE is a heavy favorite today and has the 3rd best bullpen behind him so he should lock down the win today. Love the matchup and price tag!
BRAD KELLER – If you want to pivot off Plesac or even match up with him you can use Brad Keller at only 6700. Keller has a 1.93 ERA this year and allowing a .177 batting average. There are some red flags though as he has an xFIP of 4.27 with a BABIP of only .230. I do like his BVP history vs. CLE as he has faced this team for 56 Abs and only allowing a .161 batting average with a 27% strikeout rate. GPP only.
KEVIN GAUSMAN – Gausman is the cheapest pitcher on the slate today at only 6100! He has put up 19, 18, 24, 22, 14 and 16 DK points over his last 6 starts and that is great value on his price tag of 6.1k. I mean across the last 4 in terms of X value you are roughly looking at 3x, 3x, 4x and 4x. Scherzer isn’t likely to push 4x today, I mean that would be 42+ DK points and he has only broke 30 DK points twice this entire season. Gausman has a good matchup vs. ARI who ranks 25th in the last 10 game power rankings and they fall into our “Low/Mid” range for fantasy points. He has faced them for 75 Abs and allowing a .240 batting average and a 27% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starting lineup hitters are batting below .205. You can’t ask for a better matchup for a punt pitcher if you want to stack up some studs today!

STACKS TO CONSIDER:
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. KYLE FREELAND (27TH BULLPEN) – Love this Padres who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings and they are 1st in team batting average, 3rd in runs per game and 3rd in OBP+ISO over the last 14 days. Stack is expensive with 4700-5000 average per player if you want all the studs in the lineup. Kyle Freeland is allowing a .295 batting average with an ERA over 4.00 this year. No everyone is going to argue that it includes Coors home starts so let’s look at the entire year last year on the road. He shows up with a 4.61 ERA and allowing a high 1.43 whip and .259 batting average through 56.2 innings. His last two starts he has given up 8 ER and only lasted a combined 6.1 innings with 19 hits. Vegas has the Padres projected at 4.9 runs and our model has them at 5.6 runs so we like the stack.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. FRANKIE MONTAS (2ND BULLPEN) – Montas is a great pitcher and last year had a 2.63 ERA and allowing a low .230 batting average and has a great bullpen behind him. Vegas has Houston projected at only 4.2 runs and we have them at 5.1 so this could be a sneaky stack that is cheap! Montas has had two rough starts in a row. He gave up 4 ER in only 4.2 vs. LAA and then he gave up 9 ER in only 1.2 innings @ ARI. Houston is 4280 per player for the top 5 man graded stack. Springer, Reddick, Gurriel and Correa all over 10+ Abs off Montas and batting over .300.

SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
On Saturday we posted some picks with a play on Nationals +250 parlayed with over 9.5 and it easily covered with Nationals winning 10-4 for a +635 payout! Yesterday we added in 5 games that you could bet, parlay or play the run line and they ALL WON going 4-0 and we gave you two pitcher props taking the Bieber OVER and Glasnow OVER in strikeouts and they both easily covered for another 2 WINS! When I post games I let you know which sides I like and why but you have to decide the risk/reward vs parlaying them or betting them outright. I typically don’t straight bet games that are -200 or higher.
ATLANTA BRAVES -200 over MIAMI – Ian Anderson has been stellar this year for ATL with a 2.25 ERA and allowing a low .163 batting average. In his 2 starts he has went a combined 12.0 innings with 3 RS and 14 strikeouts. Now facing a MIA team that is striking out a whopping 27% of the time over the last 14 days and rank 21st in runs per game. ATL ranks 5th in our last 10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game, 1st in OBP+ISO and they face Jose Urena coming off the IL. They have faced him for 101 team Abs and they are hitting .337 off him with a low 19% strikeout rate. Parlay the ATL moneyline or bet the run line.
SAN DIEGO PADRES -180 – Padres are #1 in our last 10 game power rankings on our MLB Cheatsheets and they get to face Kyle Freeland and the 27th ranked bullpen AND they are at home. Padres at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 107.6 to 138.2 and their OBP+ISO goes from .521 up to .619. Our custom model on our cheatsheet post a total projected for every game and we have this at 5.6 to 4.0 with Padres on top. Parlay the moneyline or hit the run line.
CLEVELAND -210 – Cleveland ranks 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings and facing the Royals who rank 29th. Our model has this game at 4.8 to 3.3. Both pitchers are solid in this matchup with Plesac and Keller but the bullpen is the difference with CLE ranking 3rd on the year and KC rankings 21st. KC is “Ice/Cold” in our team production ranks and Cleveland is “Good”. Not my favorite play straight up because KC is due for a big win but I like it parlayed.
HOUSTON +125 parlayed with OVER 9.0 (pays +330) – Oakland is a -135 favorite tonight with Montas on the mount and the 2nd ranked bullpen. However, Montas has given up 13 ER in his last two starts and Houston is starting to heat up. If Houston can get to Montas and tag him for 4-5 runs I like Houston winning as a dog AND if they win I think there is a strong likelihood this game also goes OVER the total of only 9.0 runs.
MY BETS:
Houston +125 + over 9.0 runs: 1 unit pays +3.30 units
San Diego Padres parlayed Atlanta Braves: 2 units pays +2.60 units
Padres + Braves + Cleveland: 1 units pays 2.5 units.
Mega Parlay Dart (these area always fun):
Padres/Braves/Cleveland/Houston/Houston over 9.0: 1 units pays +14 units.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

MAC's Money Making NFL Player Matchup - Key matchup breakdown from our in house analysts + Predictions.

NFL Week 3 Breakdown + Betting Picks! ( CheatSheetPros.com )

NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL Week 3 is already here! Last week was filled with injuries and star players dropping like flies. For people that have followed me for awhile you know I’m from KC so that KC game had me on the edge of my seat! I’ve had a very busy week with my son playing 3 baseball games in 3 days. I’ve set aside some time to dig into my week 3 article this morning so let’s get started!
THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL:
This game has the 31st and 32nd rated pass defense DVOA on the year and two QBs that are not afraid to sling it around. If you are betting I lean to JAX -2.5 or -3 and the over 47.5. I’m likely going to parlay the two just for something to watch. JAX is 31st vs. TE this year so Mike Gesicki is one of my focal points for DFS. He is also coming off a massive 30 DK points game. I don’t mind either QB but lean to Minshew since I have them winning this game by almost 10 points in our custom model. Pair your QB with a WR or two. If DJ Chark doesn’t go tonight then Keelan Cole is the guy I’m looking at who has put up 16 and 18 DK points over the last two weeks. I also don’t mind Shenault who has put up 14 and 10 DK points. This game should feature a lot of passing and could be a sneaky high scoring game as the Vegas line opened at 45 and has already moved to 47.5.
CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - LAS VEGAS 33 vs. NEW ENGLAND 25 –
BETTING THOUGHTS: The custom model on this game is skewed with only two games and the one large outburst by LV. I think NE wins this game at home but I’d lean to LV +6.5 as it should be fairly close. I put this on here so if you look at our custom models and projected scores on the cheat sheet you get an idea of how I interpret them.
DFS PICKS FOR GAME:
CAM NEWTON – His rushing upside gives us a huge edge on DK. He has put up 25.7 and 38.6 DK points in the last two weeks and priced at only 6700. Cam has a safe floor for cash games and upside for GPP. LV has the 28th rated rushing defense DVOA so it should be easy pick’ens for Cam.
JULIAN EDELMAN – Massive week last week with 28.9 DK points and he will be the highest targeted WR on the team.
DARREN WALLER – He put up 31.3 DK points in a massive game last week. He is the best receiver for Oakland right now.
CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - BUFFALO 26 vs. RAMS 25
BETTING THOUGHTS: I like Rams +2.5 or +3 this week. We have several points being scored in this game which is slightly skewed at our projected 51.2 points but the total opened at46.5 and has moved to 48 so public is also leaning on an over play.
DFS PICKS FOR GAME:
STEFON DIGGS – Buffalo can’t run as they rank 29th in rushing “O” but the pass is working as they are 3rd in passing “O”. Diggs has been a monster putting up 17 and 32 DK points. He will get a tougher pass “D” this weekend but the target volume is too much to pass up.
JOHN BROWN – Huge discount off Diggs if you want to pivot down and has put up 19 and 18.2 DK points across two weeks. No TE for Buffalo is providing any value so it’s either Diggs or John Brown.
CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - TITANS 27 vs. VIKINS 28
BETTING THOUGHTS: With only two games the model doesn’t have enough info to properly evaluate each team so I recommend taking it with a grain of slate until we get 4-5 weeks in. I love Titans -2.5 this week. Vikes are struggling this year as they can’t pass (30th passing “O”) and their defense is suspect. They rank 23rd in rush “D” and 19th in pass “D”. TEN should be able to score at will. Take Titans!
DFS PICKS FOR GAME:
RYAN TANNEHILL – Priced at less than 6000 on DK he needs to be in the GPP player pool after his game last week. He has 19.4 and 26.8 DK points in two weeks and should be able to tear apart these corners. If you don’t play Derrick Henry then roll with a Tannehill stack.
COREY DAVIS / JONNU SMITH – If A.J. Brown doesn’t go this week then stack these two guys with Tannehill. Davis has 20 and 13 DK points this year and Smith has 14 and then a 24.4 outburst last week with no AJ Brown.
DERRICK HENRY – I don’t mind playing Henry but at 7800 and limited PPR upside I think he is too expensive.
DALVIN COOK – MIN ranks 30th in passing “O” and 4th in rushing “O” and they are facing the 22nd rated rush “D”. Dalvin has 21.8 and 17.1 Dk points in two weeks and he his cheaper than Derrick Henry. He is the focal point of this offense.
CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - ATLANTA FALCONS 29 vs. CHICAGO BEARS 26
BETTING THOUGHTS: Can the Bears score 26 points? I know the Falcons will light up the score board as they have been on fire putting up 32 points per game (5th best) and the are playing at home on the turf where they are a fast break team. Lay the points with the Falcons.
DFS PICKS FOR GAME:
CALVIN RIDLEY – I don’t know if Julio is going to play this week or not but Ridley is a safe play putting up 37 and 33 DK points in two weeks. He is one of the best WR plays on the board and his volume is locked in. CHI ranks 2nd vs. WR-1, 4th vs. WR-2 and then 22nd vs. WR-3 so that tells me Russell Gage could be a sneaky GPP play at 5100 on DK.
JIMMY GRAHAM – Sneaky play at only 3400. If CHI is down 10+ points and playing catch up they will be throwing a lot and ATL ranks 26th vs. the TE. Graham loves playing on the turf as he spent most of his early years in New Orleans in the dome. If he catches a TD that is 2x his salary. Good punt play.
CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - DETROIT 21 vs. CARDINALS 27
BETTING THOUGHTS: Love Love Love the Cardinals in this matchup! Lay the points!
DFS PICKS FOR GAME:
KYLER MURRAY – My favorite QB on the slate this week. He has 27 and 33 DK points across his first two games. He should be able to carve up the 30th ranked defense DVOA. DET is 32nd in rush “D” and 24th in pass “D”.
DEANDRE HOPKINS – With 32 and 21 DK points he has the safest floor of any WR this week. Hopkins is expensive at 7900 on DK but we have him for 10-12 targets, 7-8 catches and around 100 yards an a TD.
KENYAN DRAKE – He has a solid 15 and 12 Dk points across two weeks but has a plus matchup vs. this 32nd rated rush defense. If he can break 100 rushing yards and grab a TD he could return big value at only 6000.
CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - DALLAS 29 vs. SEATTLE 36
BETTING THOUGHTS: OVER! Look how many points are projected here! Seattle has the 5th best “O” and 27th “D”. That’s a perfect setup for an over!
DFS PICKS FOR GAME:
EZEKIEL ELLIOT – Expensive but you are paying for a safe floor. I love the pick for cash games and I think there is upside for GPPs. Zeke has 28 and 23 DK points so far and should be 25+ this week.
AMARI COOPER – 18 and 19 DK points in his first two weeks is good for pushing 3x value. SEA ranks 31st vs. the WR-1. Stack him with Dak in GPPs.
DALTON SCHULTZ – He lead the team in targets last week with 10! He caught 9 of them for 88 yards and a TD. He is only 4500 on DK and worth a dart. For GPP I like Dak / Cooper / Schultz stacked up!
RUSSELL WILSON – 5th best “O” and no “D”. Wilson continues to rack up fantasy points putting up 34.8 and 34.4 in only two weeks. We have this game projected at 65 points so grab some shares of someone in this game!
CHRIS CARSON – Inexpensive piece of this game and has put up 25 and 20 DK points in two weeks.
DK METCALF / TYLER LOCKETT – NO ONE ELSE is catching many balls in this offense! These two guys are putting up solid games each week. There isn’t a week where they are both going to give you a dud so I like using AT LEAST ONE of them each week. I don’t mind a Wilson / Metcalf / Lockett stack. Both of these guys have put up 17+ DK points in week 1 and week 2 and they are only 6500 and 6400. Easy play for cash games and upside for GPP!
ONE OFF PLAYERS:
MILES SANDERS – This guy could explode in this game. CIN has the 25th rated rushing “D” and they are 30th vs. passing catching RBs. That is all Miles Sanders and he is only 6400 on DK and coming off a 21.1 DK point week. Love some Miles Sanders! This should be the Sanders and Ertz show. ZACH ERTZ / DALLS GOEDERT will be heavily involved in this passing game and we have them with 4-5+ catches EACH.

SUNDAY NIGHT SPECIAL:
CUSTOM MODEL PROJECTED SCORE: - - PACKERS 36 vs. SAINTS 28 - -
BETTING THOUGHTS: Love it! Packers baby! They are the #1 total “O” and #1 rushing “O”. They are struggling on the defensive side of the ball ranking 29th in total “D”. Passing “D” ranks a solid 13th but the 30th rated rushing “D” is worrisome. With Saints banged up and likely no Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders on the wrong side of 30 there is only Alvin Kamara that I’m worried about. Line opened at +6.5 and is now +3.5. I’m taking Packers +3.5 all day!
DFS PICKS FOR GAME:
ALVIN KAMARA – Captain play and a stud! He has 24 and 38 DK points in two weeks and GB has the 30th rated rush defense and they are 24 vs. pass catching RBs. There will be lots of volume for him in this game.
AARON JONES – Has to be in your showdown lineup coming off his 48.6 DK point game last week. He has a tougher matchup vs. the Saints and the 9th rated rushing “D” but Saints are 26th vs. pass catching RBs and Jones is one of the best!

SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
3 Team Specialty Teaser Picks (pick your favorite 3 but these are what I like):
COLTS -10.5 taking this down to -0.5 or “pick” basically. NYJ are horrible and they can’t score ranking 31st in points per game. Indy @ Home should easily win the game and on a teaser you don’t have to worry about laying double digit points.
ARIZONA (-6 teasing to +3) – I like this game at -6 and love it at +3. ARI @ HOME against the 30th rated “D” and Kyler Murray is having a great start to the 2020 Season. ‘Zona could easily hang 30 points in this game.
DALLAS/SEATTLE OVER (55.5 teased to 45.5) – Seattle has the 5th best “O” and 27th rated “D”. Teams rank 8th and 2nd in points per game and 25th and 21st in points allowed per game. Both teams have prolific offenses packed with play makers. Over 55.5 might be steep but teasing it down to 45.5 feels too easy!
TAMPA BAY (-6 TO +3) – Tampa travels to Denver where they are banged up and rank only 30th in points per game. Tom Brady should get an easy win in this contest. Our custom model has this game with the Bucs putting up 30 and Denver in the 18 point range. I don’t mind adding it to a teaser but prefer it as a straight bet.
ATLANTA / BEARS OVER (47.5 teased to 37.5) – ATL on the turf is ridiculous and they are holding the 8th best “O” right now with the 25th worst “D”. Perfect storm for an “OVER” play. We just need the BEARS to score some points. Falcons are 5th in points per game and 32nd in points allowed per game. OVER!
Thanks for reading,
Haze

Predicting Lions Games || 2020-21 Season || Prologue and Methodology

Hey, everyone! It's your favorite robit ("favorite" in this case being defined as "something you probably didn't remember and/or didn't like"), here to predict the next season of Detroit Lions football!!
Last season, I attempted to predict the outcome of Lions games using 12 different methods, ranging from logical to inane. I had to abandon the article series before the end of the season due to other priorities. In other words, I had wedding planning to do and this just wasn't as important. For the record, the wedding was fantastic, with mistletoe, a hot chocolate buffet, and a dream team jazz quartet of musicians that I greatly respect.
This year, I'm stepping things up a bit. For one thing, I'm up to 18 prediction methods. Beyond that, some of the newcomers stem from questions I was asking last year, such as, "this QB Rating is an ESPN metric...I wonder how it compares to the NFL's own Passer Rating". As such, 16 of the 18 methods are paired off into direct rivalries! We'll still see who the best overall predictors are by the end of the year, but now each of those 16 has a more direct point of comparison as well. The two methods without a rival are Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid and A Literal Coin Flip, which will be up against everybody. And remember, there are two final picks at the end of each article! One for whichever team has the most picks, and one for the team with the most weighted picks, with weights assigned based on the method's performance so far (1 × [# correct predictions / # total predictions]).
I also plan to submit these posts to the subreddit of each game's opponent this year (as subreddit rules allow, anyway). I'd also thought about submitting to /nfl, but they've got a dense rulebook that appears to disallow this sort of content (or perhaps only allow it with prior approval that I do not have). Maybe I'll link to it in the comments of their game threads. Their comment rules are a lot lighter.
Sadly, this year we wave goodbye to Smash Bros Ultimate Mascot Fight. For one thing, I couldn't find a suitable rival for it, nor did it make sense to have it on its own. However, the larger reason is that, while it was a lot of fun to create the mascot Mii fighters, the writeups never came out sounding very interesting. It got a bit dull to just write down the order of stock losses each week, ya dig? To make that method more interesting, it would really deserve a video with accompanying commentary audio track, and I'm just not up for making one prediction method that much more labor-intensive.
Now, finally, let's actually get into the methodology of each pick!

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Rivalry Basis: Nobody can deny the impact of a good quarterback. It won’t save a garbage roster, but a strong player under center can elevate a bad team to modest success, and a good team to greatness. On the other hand, a bad quarterback can drag down the entire team, such is the position’s importance.

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating

Why: I could simply decide on my own which quarterback I think is better. That's not subjective enough for this highly scientific and rational exercise, however. Therefore, I will use ESPN's QB Rating as a metric for, well, Rating each teams Quarterback.
How: I’ll be comparing the regular season QB Rating for each team’s starting quarterback, as posted on ESPN's website. I will use the current season rating as of the time of the writeup each week. For Week 1, I will compare QB Ratings from the 2019 regular season. In the unlikely event that both starters share a rating, this method will favor the home team.

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating

Why: I could simply decide on my own which quarterback I think is better. That's not subjective enough for this highly scientific and rational exercise, however. Therefore, I will use the NFL's Passer Rating as a metric for, well, Rating each teams Passer.
How: Last year's QB Rating predictions have invited a challenger from the greater NFL body itself. I will compare the Passer Rating of each team's starting quarterback, with the higher rating getting the prediction nod. As with the QB Rating, I'll take the Passer Rating as of that point in the season, using the 2019 regular season for Week 1. If each Passer Rating is the same, this method will favor the home team. I will source this data from...ESPN's website? Let's see if ESPN's data availability engineers their own downfall against their NFL rival.

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Rivalry Basis: There are some things that we're simply always told "win football games". I've decided to put a couple of these to the test here. Which is better? Are either good? Let's find out!

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential

Why: We’ve all heard it. “Turnovers win/cost games!” It’s a tired line, but there’s likely some truth to it; I want to see how well it holds water for detecting a winner in advance.
How: I’ll contrast each team’s regular season turnover differential as reported by The Football Database, current to the week of the writeup. The higher differential (that is, more takeaways and fewer giveaways) gets the pick. For Week 1, I will compare turnover differentials from the 2019 regular season. If both teams have the same differential, this method will favor the home team.

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game

Why: Ahh, that good old John Madden crumb of wisdom. What you really want to do is score more points than the other team, and then you'll win your football game. Store dat away for a rainy day.
How: Pretty simple on this one. Average out the points per game of each team up to that point in the season. As is typical, for Week 1 I'll be using the average points per game of the entire 2019 regular season.

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Rivalry Basis: What's more important, current quality or true legacy? Wait, why are you waiting for me to tell you? I certainly don't know. That's why I was asking you!

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record

Why: There are circumstances where a good team unexpectedly tanks, or a bad team becomes shockingly good in a short span of time. That isn’t the norm, though. In general, a team performs at least similarly to how they did the previous season.
How: I’ll be putting each team’s record from the 2019 season up against one another. I don't expect this one to swing for Detroit very often - the Lions went 3-12-1. If Detroit is up against another team with the same record, this method will favor the home team.

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record

Why: Then again, there's something to be said for legacy. Even in bad droughts of success, there are some teams that are just always expected to have a chance at contending. Could it be that a team's history is able to give an ailing squad the push they need, or help a robust unit keep themselves on track?
How: I'll measure this with each team's regular season win/loss percentage across that team's entire record, including 2020 as it happens. A tied percentage will favor the home team.

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Rivalry Basis: Coaches run games, but it's the star players who really turn heads. I'd like to see which ends up proving more important.

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff

Why: I feel the need to justify this one a little. I could have gone with a coaching win/loss record or something, but I was finding it tricky to reconcile each member of a coaching staff having coached a different number of games. Beyond that, I like this better as a predictor anyway. After all, bad coaches don't stay in their positions for very long, so an experienced staff should also indicate a decent staff, yeah?
How: I'll be adding up the number of years that each member of each coaching staff (head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, special teams coordinator) has been in that position in the NFL. Not necessarily with that particular team, but, for example, I'll only be counting Matt Patricia's years as a head coach. I won't consider his position coaching or coordinator history, because "head coach" is the level of responsibility he has for determining game outcomes this season. I don't want to allow the Peter principle to warp any ratings based on that coach having been really good at their previous job. In the event of a tie, the pick goes to the home team.

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players

Why: There are loads of ways to determine which football players are better than others, but if it was easy, we wouldn't still have playground debates about it. In light of that, I'd rather trust the players themselves.
How: Conveniently enough, the NFL's players vote in an offseason poll covering just this subject. Even more conveniently, the poll only includes voting on players who will not be retired for the coming season, so I don't have to worry about some retiring legend who isn't actually relevant for this test bumping people off the bottom of the list that would be relevant. If the count is equal, the home team is favored.

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Rivalry Basis: This one was already a rivalry of sorts last year. Which produces better simulations...state of the art ~~physics engines~~ animation sequences, or rudimentary programming from 1991? I'd like to continue this debate this year.

Prediction Method 9: Madden 19 21 Simulation

Why: EA has a massive budget, and they put out a product featuring the full NFL roster. That said, there are several questions raised as to how much effort actually goes into these games (including but not limited to the actual in-game proceedings). For a studio with “Arts” in the name, it is definitely run as a business first, artful developer second. I want to see if their simulations of the teams have any legitimacy.
How: Using Madden 19 with its most up-to-date roster patch available, I will run a CPU-controlled exhibition game featuring Detroit and their opponent. Settings will be adjusted to Simulation mode, with the default 6-minute quarters. Winner earns this pick. A rare tie would favor the home team. I'm using Madden 19 because it's the first Madden game that I'd bought in years, and you're unhinged if you think I'm giving EA any more money until they make a substantial update. Scratch that, Pride of Detroit is simulating the game each week in Madden 21 so I can use that for a more up-to-date simulation basis

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation

Why: Would you believe that there are people that update the teams and rosters in ROMs of Tecmo Super Bowl every year to keep them current? It’s honestly pretty awesome. I’d like to see how good of a job these 8-bit simulations do with their modern rosters.
How: Last year I used Goji's NFL Tecmo Super Bowl LIV Week 1 (v10, Juiced Plus) for this. Unfortunately, the website that hosted all of this appears to have shut its door in late July of 2020. Its community is a bit scattered at the moment, but I've found Tecmonster's Tecmo Super Bowl among the pieces. I will use this ROM to run a CPU-controlled exhibition game mirroring the week’s matchup. Winner gets the pick. Note that this is Tecmo Super Bowl, not Tecmo Bowl. Tecmo Super Bowl is superior across the board, don’t @ me.

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick

Why: This is our dog, Fenchurch. She is adorable, silly, and incredibly affectionate and loving. She may also have phenomenal cosmic powers, given to her by the universe as a reward for existing as such a pure being. These powers may or may not include psychic divinations of the future.
How: Before each game, I will set out two treats (broken in half because the little turd is too impatient to chew her food). Each will be the same flavor, and placed in front of a note card with the name of a competing team written on it. The away team will go on the left, the home team on the right. Fen will be held a short distance away, equidistant from each treat, with both of them directly in her field of vision. Whichever treat Fen decides to eat first receives the pick. Then she gets to eat the other treat as well for being the goodest girl and being such a big help.

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick

Why: OH GOSH YOU GUYS FEN HAS A SISTER NOW. Elena's favorite thing is the world is Fen. Fen's favorite thing in the world is time away from her incredibly energetic sister Elena. Could Elena annoy Fen even more by usurping her? Or will she defer to her favorite sibling and allow Fen to continue being the psychic pet? Only time (and treats) will tell.
How: Same as with Fen, just with a different doggo. And Elena is simultaneously the goodest girl, and yes they can coexist as such thank-you-very-much.

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Rivalry Basis: Put simply, this is my wife vs my mother. Despite they jokey name of this rivalry, they actually get along great! One of the things they have in common is that they don't follow any of the minutiae of football, so they're on pretty even footing here.

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick

Why: My wife knows a bit about football. More than my mom, certainly; she's even in our fantasy football league. But unless she does some research specifically for these picks (which would be allowed for either her or my mom), her knowledge is mostly rooted in broad-stroke stuff or what she happens to hear me ranting about. She won't typically have insight into which team has an injured receiver or is on a backslide or is really close to taking the lead in their division. So while she's a very real fan, she's a high-level fan who just has fun watching football.
How: I ask her who she thinks is going to win. What did you expect?

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick

Why: My mom knows next to nothing about football. When we yell at the screen, she just asks which color jersey we’re supporting, and then roots for them too. If she can call these correctly, or at least better than the competing methods, she may be a savant of some kind.
How: In the week leading up to each game, I’m going to call (or text if necessary) my mother and ask who she thinks is going to win. That’s all there is to it.

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Rivalry Basis: Time to put my own credibility on the line. We're bumping up my own opinions against those of the experts!

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast

Why: People take things seriously when there’s money on the line, and nowhere is more money on the line than in Vegas. Institutions that are hosting sports bets want their predicted outcomes to be as good as possible, so that the odds that they give reflect reality as best they can.
How: Rather than trying to shift gears and pick some bookie off of a random list of which I know nothing, I'm going to stay the course from last year. Therefore, I’ll be looking to OddsShark for their anticipated score (and by extension, winner).

Prediction Method 16: My Pick

Why: I want to see how I stack up. Despite my best efforts, I am by all accounts an amateur. I want to try my hand at this fight, and see how well I can hold my own.
How: Before each game, I will simply use my best judgment of all known factors to write my thoughts about the outcome that I expect. I’ll try to be as objective as I can in my assessment, which means I’ll probably just agonize over how it feels like I’ve picked the Lions too often.

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip

Why No Rivalry: Consider this a control. If any other methods fall below an unbiased random guess, then maybe they aren’t worth putting any faith in.
Why: A coin is unbiased, and I certainly don't know how to choose the outcome of a flip. True randomness.
How: I will be using a Highland Mint NFL 100th anniversary Detroit Lions coin. I will flip it, catch it, open my palm, and set it down on the coffee table without turning it. Lions side chooses Detroit, NFL side chooses Detroit's opponent.

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid

Why No Rivalry: BECAUSE IT'S DETROIT VS EVERYBODY, BABY
Why: FUCK YOU
How: I DON’T GIVE HALF A DAMN WHAT YOU THINK, DETROIT IS THE BEST GODDAMN TEAM IN THE GODDAMN NFL. I’M GOING TO CHOOSE THEM TO WIN EVERY GAME THEY’RE IN BECAUSE YOU’D BE A WEAPONS-GRADE DIPSHIT TO PICK AGAINST THEM. WHO THE FUCK THINKS THEY’RE BEATING US?? BRING YOUR BEST PEOPLE, I DON’T GIVE A SHIT. MATTHEW STAFFORD, KENNY GOLLADAY, AND THE MASTERFUL MATT PRATER. THOSE THREE GUYS COULD TAKE ON YOUR ENTIRE TEAM WITHOUT FLINCHING, AND WE’VE GOT MORE WHERE THAT CAME FROM.
DETROIT WINS. KISS MY DICK.

And there we have it. We're ready to roll for the 2019-20 season. Expect my posts on gameday morning. It's football time, people!

2020 NFL Draft Review - Analysis and Career Predictions for Each Team's Draft Class - AFC East

If you missed the first three installments of this 2020 NFL Draft review series, you can read the NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North.
Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust.
Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level. I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.

Overview

Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.
Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.
Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.
As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love (more on that here). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.
So here is the first installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow (5). Here's how the picks break down:
5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.
Next up, the AFC East.

New York Jets

The Jets came into the draft with well-defined needs at tackle, wide receiver, and as usual, edge rusher. They moved around a bit and still filled those needs with the No. 12, No. 24, and No. 53 ranked players on my board. This Jets draft class will undoubtedly be defined by two of the riskiest boom-or-bust prospects in the entire draft. Their first and second-round picks arguably have the highest ceilings at their respective positions but are both extremely raw.
Mekhi Becton (4) was my top-ranked tackle in a good tackle class. His film shows inconsistent technique, somehow getting driven back into his quarterbacks' lap by bull rushes. Becton's size-to-athleticism ratio is folklore at this point, and he has the physical traits of the best tackle in the NFL. One of my notes: "you have to teach him everything." Jets offensive line coach Frank Pollack has his work cut out for him, but Becton will be a dream to coach if he's willing to put in the work. Joe Douglas' strength is supposed to be offensive line, so in some ways, his reputation is at stake with this pick. Scouting draft prospects is not just about the film - NFL teams do a ton of research on projecting work habits, character, and intangibles. My main concern with Becton is keeping his weight in check. I want to believe in Douglas here.
Trading back to 59 and still getting my No. 24 overall player in Denzel Mims (4) was one of the best moves in the entire draft. Mims' fall was one of the few things that actually surprised me, and it's interesting that even the team that ultimately picked him passed on him in the mid-second. I couldn't find any character or medical flags with Mims so why did a prospect who was super productive and aced the draft process fall so far? After watching his film, I just don't have an answer. He's sloppy and raw, but scouting is about traits, and he has the traits of a WR1. They teach the wide receiver position a little different at Baylor - round most cuts, find grass rather than run precise routes - so teams may have been spooked by Corey Coleman and the like.
Mims is going to have to be coachable, but his ceiling is undeniable. His mix of strength, physicality, and ball skills pops off the screen, with frequent high-points and flashes of tremendous hands. There are very few reps that display 4.38 speed, but it's not like he's slow on film either. A huge part of route-running at the pro level is subtle hand fighting and push-offs. To me his mid-route handwork was advanced, and his traits to use his hands to gain separation make him a potential contested-catch warrior. The one trait that wasn't elite was his lack of suddenness, but his 6.66 3-cone suggests he has well above-average change of direction. Someone please explain to me why Denzel Mims lasted until pick 59.
Ashtyn Davis (3) in the third was a curious pick and probably raised some eyebrows after months of Jamal Adams rumors. However, the draft isn't just about filling needs for the upcoming season, it's about building for the future, and it's clear the Jets are preparing for Marcus Maye to walk in free agency next offseason. A case can definitely be made that Davis was the best player available at pick 68. His film showed excellent speed, instincts, and the ability to play center field in single-high looks. He's a smart player with good tackling technique and showed nice pass-breakups and interceptions on film. His film wasn't flawless, as he took some bad angles in the Washington game, giving up a 4th-and-1 touchdown to their running back. I project Davis as a Jim Leonhard-ish starter down the road next to Adams.
The Jets used their final day-two pick on a pass-rusher I wasn't high on in Jabari Zuniga (2). I also would have liked for them to add another receiver at some point. For the most part, however, they nailed this draft, mostly because Mims fell so far. Passing on CeeDee Lamb was probably a mistake, but if Becton and Mims live up to their ceilings, watch out. In three years it will be clear if Lamb/Josh Jones should have been the move instead of Becton/Mims.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins played the smokescreen game beautifully. The Chargers basically admitted they wanted Tua, and while there's no proof they had him ranked higher than Justin Herbert, common sense says they were fine with both but preferred Tua. After all the smoke about Herbert, a tackle, and trade-ups, the Dolphins stood pat at No. 5 and got their franchise quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa (4) is a fascinating study in draft value as it relates to risk. Every doctor or agent that came out declaring his injuries as non-stories had an agenda. There is no doubt that his durability is a huge question mark after suffering a myriad of ailments, including a very serious hip injury, over his short career. His injury history is horrifying, and if I was a general manager I would have been terrified to take him and terrified to pass on him. The main reason for concern isn't just about his history, it's about his tendencies on film to hold onto the ball too long or try to make plays that just aren't worth it.
Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are amazing at not taking unnecessary hits. They know how to contort their bodies, slide, step out of bounds, and just wisely give up when they need to. Tua does not have this sixth sense. The situation reminds me of RGIII coming out. Amazing prospect, but major concerns about his ability to stay on the field.
As a football player on the actual field, Tua is special. His best trait is his ball placement, as he mastered the RPO-heavy attack at Alabama, routinely throwing dots to his star-studded receiving corps. He is athletic and creative outside the structure of the offense, making plays with his eyes downfield. He also has excellent mechanics which points to coachability. There are some on-field question marks - a terrible pick on the goal line against Tennessee and some missed throws against New Mexico State. However, his 69.3 career completion percentage and 87/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio are for real. I don't feel confident predicting his NFL career due to injury concerns as it relates to playing style. If he's healthy, he'll be a star.
Austin Jackson (2) was a bad pick. He's young with some upside, but there were much better players on the board at 18. If any team can afford to take on a project it's Miami right now, but I would have preferred Ezra Cleveland or Josh Jones. I saw Jackson get beat by a spin move and generally struggle to place his hands. He has the size and physical ability, but I wanted to see more consistency. His kickset is natural but he turns his shoulders too much against speed rushers. I expect him to get victimized early and often. I don't think he's quick enough.
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My final note on Noah Igbinoghene (2): strong and long, get him in zone. Igbinoghene got beat twice by J'Marr Chase, but also laid the wood on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He's physical enough, ran a 4.48, and returned a kick for a touchdown against Arkansas. His biggest weakness is that he doesn't get his head around down the field. He'll be much better playing facing the quarterback in zone coverage than in man. I would have taken one of the safeties over him at 30.
Quick thoughts on their other picks: Robert Hunt (2) could start at guard but isn't powerful enough to be more than average. Raekwon Davis (3) was highly underrated for stupid reasons like stat production. He's a starting run-stuffer right away and has all the traits you want. I thought New England would take him. Brandon Jones (1) didn't strike me as a pro. He was a big-time recruit and has some speed, but got beat too much. I liked Solomon Kindley (2), but his body just might not work, and I noted Curtis Weaver (1) as "one-dimensional, only speed rush" so I'm not hugely surprised by his fall. He can bend and run the arc, but he has no moves in terms of handwork. Too jag-ish versus Colorado State for me.
I expect people to warn us about sleeping on the Dolphins, but the reality is they traded a great young safety and great young left tackle that would have been building blocks for Brian Flores. I expect most of this draft class to underwhelm, but what matters most is Tua's health. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a franchise quarterback that will keep the Dolphins contending in the AFC East for years to come. What Flores did with that Miami roster last year was extremely impressive.

New England Patriots

My next project is an even more comprehensive updated study on the value of draft picks, which will eventually lead to an evaluation of teams' drafting. My guess is that it will reveal what I have always thought: Bill Belichick is not a great drafter and is probably below average. He is the best coach in history and does a phenomenal job of developing a winning culture, but a lot of his draft picks have underwhelmed or busted. Part of that is due to a small draft board and focus on players that fit their organization specifically. I did not like this Patriots draft class. They took a division-two safety, situational edge rusher, the fifth-best player on Alabama's defense, two tight ends, and a probably racist kicker.
Kyle Dugger (3) clearly didn't belong in D-II. He plays fast, can run and hit, and did some flat-out dominant things on film. His breaks on the ball were at a different speed, he knocked down tight ends, and had some pick-sixes that made him look like Deion Sanders. Obviously, it's all about how he'll react to a jump in level of competition. Dugger's great Senior Bowl week was definitely a huge factor in his ultimate draft slot. He's not fundamentally there yet, but being mentored by Devin McCourty and coached by Belichick gives him a real chance to develop into a pro bowl player.
I did not see it with Josh Uche (1). The Iowa offensive line had no problem with him, and the only sack I saw in the games I watched was on a free rush. Michigan didn't even rush him in big spots. He's thin with no plan. His only translatable trait is a great first step, which is not that difficult to mitigate if he has nothing else. I actually like Anfernee Jennings (2) better. He's stiff and can't bend, but he's stout at the point of attack and can be a solid stand-up run defender right now.
I thought the Patriots should have taken a shot with one of the quarterbacks, and they drafted two tight ends in a terrible tight end class. It will be fascinating to see how Belichick fares without Brady, but it wouldn't shock me to see them focus on player development and position themselves for a quarterback in next year's draft. Their roster just isn't that talented right now.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills traded their first-round pick for Stefon Diggs, adding a much-needed weapon for Josh Allen. They ended up getting huge values, landing the No. 16 player on my board a 54, the No. 54 player on my board at 86, and the No. 65 player on my board at 207! Teams that draft close to the consensus internet rankings usually end up with better drafts than teams that don't.
A.J.Epenesa (3) has a high floor and terrific film but I wasn't shocked to see him fall to 54. His poor 3-cone time is extremely disturbing, and teams were clearly spooked by his lack of athleticism. However, "traits" doesn't always pertain to purely physical attributes, as his football traits are tremendous. Epenesa looks much twitchier on film than his testing numbers suggest, and his strength is unquestioned. He walked back the Michigan left tackle, displaying his obvious plus power. He has a good get-off and his physicality plays in the league. He can knife in on inside moves and uses his length to make plays. Probably more of a left end than right end, he's a solid pro edge in the mold of a bigger Patrick Kerney.
Zack Moss (3) made the Utah offense go. He has the potential to be a true 1A running back for the Bills, but his long injury history clouds his future. Moss' film is fantastic. He has terrific burst, change-of-direction, and always falls forward. His technique is poor but he gets it done in pass protection and as a receiver. As a pure runner, he's right up there with Jonathan Taylor, and only lacks that home-run long speed. He's twitchy, patient, and shows quick jump cuts that play in the league. His lack of production against Texas and Washington did concern me. I still expect him to unseat Devin Singletary and emerge as a fantasy stalwart assuming he can stay healthy.
I prefer Isaiah Hodgins (3) to Gabriel Davis (2) but I love doubling up on wide receiver in this loaded class. Hodgins having success would be somewhat of an outlier. He has the size and tremendous hands, but a lot of his film probably doesn't translate . He was a double-move beast, but his 4.61 shows. I'll take a stab with great hands. Davis played inches off the boundary as an outside receiver at UCF, so he'll need to adjust to real alignments and actual routes at the next level. He was incredibly productive but doesn't have the speed or technique of anything more than an average pro. He was schemed for one-on-one matchups against spatially-confused corners.
📷
With a solid head coach and talented roster, the Bills will enter 2020 as the favorites in the AFC East. Josh Allen's accuracy remains a concern, and with more weapons there will be no excuses. He needs a big year. The defense has building block pieces at all three levels and the solid additions of Epenesa and Moss should support the foundation.
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more divisions in the coming days.
AFC East Full Article with gifs: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-east/736202
NFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-east/735919
AFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-afc-north/735564?src=cat_feat_9954
NFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-north/734932

A Guide: Stats To Address the Most Common Championship RB Questions

This is my first post, but I've been looking at A LOT of stats and I've seen this question or something similar close to a million times within the last few days. I myself am stuck in this exact conundrum, so I figured I would help out the Reddit community while gaining some knowledge as well. Here is a comprehensive list of season stats per team, weather conditions, and miscellaneous game info. I hope this helps most of you make a decision and brings home the chip!
WEATHER:
Minnesota Vikings vs. GB Packers: DOME
Oakland Raiders @ LA Chargers: Carson, CA 1:05PT, Partly Cloudy with 50% chance of showers, 90% chance of showers (up to half inch) after 5PM. SE Winds 10-15mph.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ NY Jets: E Rutherford, NJ 10:00PT, Sunny, 46 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation. WSW Winds 5-10mph.
BETTING LINES:
GB vs. MIN 46 (Vikings -5.5)
OAK vs. LAC 45.5 (Chargers -7)
PIT vs. NYJ 37 (Steelers -3)
DEFENSE:

	Rank Against RB	Total Rush YA	Total Rush TD	Avg. Rush YA Last 5 Games	Yds Per Attempt Allowed
GB Packers	26th	1693	14	108.8	4.6
LA Chargers	22nd	1544	11	103.4	4.1
OAK Raiders	20th	1481	13	118.8	4.1
NY Jets	10th	1243	12	101.2	3.3

OFFENSIVE LINE:

Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).
Second Level Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.
Open Field Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.

	Avg. Yds Per Carry	Power Success	Stuffed	2nd Level Rank	OF Rank
MIN Vikings	4.6	67%	16%	13th	8th
LA Chargers	4.2	67%	19%	18th	18th
OAK Raiders	4.3	60%	17%	19th	19th
PIT Steelers	4.56	52%	24%	24th	24th

CONCLUSION:
Obviously, this is an opinion based on statistics and definitive assumptions that all players will be given the start (mainly referring to Boone).
Before I make my pick I will make some quick opinion notes:

Weather should not be a factor in any of these games; however, the slight rain and shaky old man Rivers in charge of the rock, Lynn may decide to keep the ball on the ground against a forgiving Oakland defense.
Although Conner ranks 2nd among these four options in YPC, the matchup against a stout Jets DST can cause some issues behind their weak offensive line.
Washington is the clear main back in Oakland now, and as a Chargers fan and LA county resident, I know it'll be a Raiders final "2nd home" game.
Conner has more receiving yards than the other three backs listed.
Ekeler is still in the LAC backfield and has been more effective and efficient for the Chargers playbook.
The Minnesota/GB game has the highest implied pt total which theoretically means plenty of RZ opportunities.
Pittsburgh/NYJ has the lowest O/U and with the Steelers projected at about 22, we can assume a good chunk of those pts may come from FGs and at least 1 DST score.

All that being said, my pick to win you your championship is...
Mike Boone (MIN): If we make our decisions based on points, defense, offensive lines, and usage, it can be assumed that Boone would have the most opportunity for points. Not only does Green Bay allow the most rushing yds to the position, but the Vikings have the perfect set up for the starting RB to have the highest opportunity for big plays/RZ conversion. Very rarely does the MIN O Line allow for RBs to lose yds, making Boone a viable option for positive gains. We don't really have a good sample size since he's the 3rd stringer; however, Zimmer likes his RBs to be identical clones even down to the hairstyle. Cook is 5'10/209 lbs, Mattison 5'11/220lbs, and Boone 5'10/205lbs. This is relevant because we can assume the usage would be similar, if not the same, as Cook. I need to clarify that I do not believe Boone is as talented or better than the other two Minnesota backs, but he is going into this game with a positive game script. Although Boone did not receive for yardage during week 15, we cannot dismiss the opportunity for rush attempt volume, goal line carries, and points allowed by defense to the RB position. If PPR is a deal breaker for you, Conner no doubt has the best hands, but we lose out on the upside of a competent OLine, playoff seeding game, and high implied point total. It should be noted that Green Bay is currently sitting 14th against the pass and 6th against the QB. In other words, Cousins will be looking to get the ball out quickly; making it safe to assume we'll see plenty of rush attempts. In the end, I truly believe Boone is the safest play this week - again, assuming all goes according to plan. Keep an eye on the reports for the rest of the week in regard to the unrevealed Mattison injury.
In the event you do not have Boone, or Mattison surprisingly makes an appearance, my ranked list is as follows (note: this list does not reflect ALL RB2/3 players - only those inquired in the comments):

CMC
Saquon Barkley
Derrick Henry
Ezekiel Elliott
Chris Carson
Joe Mixon
Nick Chubb
Mark Ingram II
Mike Boone
Leonard Fournette
Alvin Kamara
Aaron Jones
Miles Sanders
MGIII
Todd Gurley II
Kenyan Drake
Austin Ekeler
Marlon Mack
Washington
Conner
Singletary
Mostert
Philip Lindsay
Lev Bell
Devonta Freeman

I hope this helps some of you out when making a decision for this weekend. I wish you all the best of luck during your week 16 championship matchups! Let's win this thing!
Note: All data comes from AccuWeather, Football Outsiders, Fantasy Footballers, Pro Football Reference, CBS sports, and the NFL.
EDIT: Thank you all for the positive feedback and faith in my research. Due to high demand, I added a number other players that were frequently asked about on this thread to the final rankings just above. Pass along edit nicely to those I have not responded to. Unfortunately, I'm on the west coast so the games will start soon. In order to get this info out to you quickly, I just added the requested players to the list at the bottom! I did the same research on the added players (e.g., weather, DST opp rank, Offensive Line rank, etc.). Good luck out there! It is the way.
Edit #2: It has come to my attention that Oakland is to be without Brown and Incognito on the O Line. Two massive parts of the Raiders offense, for that reason I moved Washington down significantly.

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Position	Colts Points	Bears Points
QB	4	2
WR1	2	4
WR2-5	3	3
RB	4	2
TEs	4	2
LT/RT	5	1
IOL	5	1
CBs	2	4
Safeties	2	4
Standup LBs	4	2
Pass Rush	2	4
IDL	3	3
K	2	4
P	3	3
PKR	4	2
Head Coach	3	3
	TOTALS	TOTALS
TOTALS	52	44

Description	Value
Vegas Odds	-2.5 for Colts
CBS Odds	-3 for Colts
SH Odds	-1 for Bears
MGM Odds	-3 for Colts
DraftKing Odds	-2.5 for Colts
NBC PR	IND 12, CHI 16
Fansided PR	IND 16, CHI 12
NFL PR	IND 16, CHI 19
SportNews PR	IND 17, CHI 12
CBS PR	IND 17, CHI 18
SportsNaut PR	IND 16, CHI 17

Description	Colts	Bears
SoV	0	0.125
WoL	0.666	NA
Avg PR of win opp	28.125	26.666
Avg PR of loss opp	24.25	NA
Percentage Predicted	35%	65%
Pts per game	28.0	24.7
Pts rank	13th	20th
Points given up per game	15	20.666
Points against rank	3rd	9th
Yards per game	389.7	387.3
Yards rank	15th	17th
Passing yards per game.	249.3	270.3
Pass yards rank	10th	22nd
Rush yards per game	119.3	138.0
Rush yards rank	15th	11th
Time of Possession rank	31st	27th
Sacks	9.0	7.0
Sacks rank	6th	11th
Interceptions	6.0	3.0
Interception rank	1st	7th

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