/CFB Ball We would like to welcome you to the internet's tailgate, /CFB! We are a community of over 900,000 college football fans from all over the globe. There is just something about college football that grabs you and makes you want to scream at a TV, a ref, or - let's be real here - COVID-19 or 2020 in general. Dumpster Fire But even with all the bad in the world, there are countless CFB teams for you to root for - in the US and around the world. We guarantee you've got a college football team nearby. We do our best to cover them all. MontmorencyIPNMonashUFPRKITUppsalaUmojaESME-ESGLagos MarinesCanterbury (NZ)NidarosZlín富山大学 (Toyama)天津大学 (Tianjin)동의대학교 (Eui)Sakarya Once you have found a team to support you should consider picking up a flair to show your fandom and pride. /CFB has over 2,300 unique flairs to choose from. Make sure you choose a flair on a browser and not any reddit apps. /CFB currently has the ability for dual flairs. This allows you to show your fandom for two teams or your team and its conference, or even show your support for the Duke's Mayonnaise Bowl and wear a flair for your favorite bowl game! So, yeah, things are weird this year. We're working with this as best we can. Game Threads Because things are so up in the air, for the moment we're going to have CFB_Referee post all of the game threads and post game threads. If things stabilize, we may revisit that later in the season, but for the moment that will help us ensure that everything stays accurate. Useful Information Here are some links you should visit...
We recommend you take a moment to read the rules and the post rules before posting so you don't violate one by accident. Look for threads already happening on a topic to add your take. Look for weekly threads (see below) to ask questions or share specific ideas. If you're not sure? Send us a modmail to ask! How to View /CFB There are many ways to view Reddit, and the one that we recommend and maintain the most is Old Reddit. If you're viewing from mobile web, Reddit Apps, or New Reddit, you'll still get all of the comments and posts, but it may not be as visually up to date.
Rule Refresher
Here at /CFB we have some pretty simple rules - you can read all of them here. We know we're seeing a lot of new faces around here, so this is especially important right now. For a refresher, here is a TL;DR of some of the important ones to keep in mind. No racism, homophobia, sexism, rape jokes, victim blaming, or other bigotry. Just no. Seriously. Discussing college football should never lead to this. Remember, this is a place to talk about football, that's it. One of the great things about /CFB is that it isn't the ESPN or AL.com comment sections. This also means no jokes about rape AND it means no using rape or rape scandals as flamebait. No unrelated politics and keep related politics civil. Yes, we know this is hard with everything going on right now and how politics are intersecting with college football more and more openly. Still, keep it on topic, related to college football, and keep it civil. No content that seeks to deceive, misinform, or otherwise harm others, or to entertain the notion of such. Please also avoid giving medical advice, even if you're a medical professional in real life. No flair based downvoting. The downvote button does not exist to put down teams you don't like, people you don't like, or opinions you don't like. Instead, use it to get rid of trolls or bad content. Downvoting just because of flair makes Coach Snyder sad. Don't make Coach Snyder sad. No flamebait, personal attacks or harassment. Have a good time on /CFB and be nice. No argument is worth getting into on the internet. We encourage strong debates and good discussion but if it ultimately comes down to "You are wrong, I am right" and name calling you will be banned. Examples, while not comprehensive, include instances like you calling someone an idiot, telling them you hope they die, claim all fans of X team are Y horrible thing... these are just a few examples of Rule 2 violations. Tweets must be made as self-posts. To cut down on Tweet-spam, all direct Twitter links will be removed. No word-for-word pasting of paywall content. We can't allow users to repost content from paid sites. There is a reason the paywall exists and writers deserve the money. Feel free to quickly summarize an article, though, or include a very brief quote. This also includes things like posting screenshots of the content or linking to sites that deliberately redirect around paywalls. No stream links. Reddit as a whole is cracking down on this. Do not link to illegal stream sites or to subreddits aggregating those links. Discussion about options like Hulu Live, You Tube TV, etc. are allowed, but keep in mind that generic requests for cord cutter options may be removed. No which team/fanbase is X threads. Threads designed to put down other teams or fanbases will be removed. We want posts that encourage positive discussion and debate, not collective hate. Example thread titles include "Which fanbase is most delusional?" and "Which team do you irrationally hate?" No Buy, Sell, or Trade Posts/Comments We just have no way to verify that people posting these classifieds aredoing or will do what they claim, so we're going to be removing any such threads. Reporting While this isn't a rule, it does help us make sure the rules get applied consistently. We can't be everywhere, so that means we need you to help out by reporting posts or comments that break the rules. You may have noticed the new options for reporting comments and submissions - hopefully this will make things easier! PLUS if you respond and break the rules yourself, you risk a ban. Just hit report and let us handle it. Tweets DON'T TWEET AT CROOTS.
Weekly Threads
Now that the season is beginning, weekly threads will be back up. We have at least one thread each day. Use them! Other threads that cover this information will be removed. Please note, this may change depending on how things go.
Day
Thread
Time (ET)
Additional Information
Monday
MS Paint Monday
Varies
Theme varies week to week.
The Monday Morning Playoff Committee
11:00 AM
A place for you to share playoff hypotheticals and your proposals to change the College Football Playoff.
Betting Discussion Thread
1:00 PM
Discuss spreads, oveunders, and prop bets for this week's games.
The Monday Afternoon Conference Realignment Committee
2:30 PM
Discuss your hypothetical Conference realignment scenarios and how they might play out!
A thread with reminders about that week's upcoming threads, when weekly threads are, etc.
Due to volume of submissions, the threads for the AP Poll, and CFP Rankings will be posted automatically by CFB_Referee. The Coaches Poll however is open to being posted as links. Whoever posts first wins. Please be sure to link to the official websites for each poll. Duplicates will be removed.
Pre-Season Threads
Please note, this schedule is subject to change.
Day
Thread
Time (ET)
Additional Information
8/24
Homegrown Media
1:00 PM
Share your own writing, podcasts, etc.
8/25
Dear CFB: Going to or Watching a Game Advice Thread
2:00 PM
Ask for advice about going to a game or where to watch one for any games this season.
8/26
College Fantasy Football
10:55 AM
Discuss your college fantasy football threads. Note that any comments that relate to financial transactions may be removed.
8/27
Complain About Your Team
1:00 PM
For the whole season.
8/28
Bold Predictions
11:00 AM
For the whole season.
This year, we'll be doing pre-season threads on a conference by conference basis 1 week before they start play, so they'll be staggered across the next month or so.
Day
Time
Conference
Thread
8/26
10:00 AM
FCS
Season Discussion
1:00 PM
C-USA
Season Discussion
3:00 PM
Sun Belt
Season Discussion
8/28
10:00 AM
FCS
Season Predictions
1:00 PM
C-USA
Season Predictions
3:00 PM
Sun Belt
Season Predictions
9/9
1:00 PM
ACC
Season Discussion
9/11
1:00 PM
ACC
Season Predictions
9/16
1:00 PM
American
Season Discussion
9/18
1:00 PM
American
Season Predictions
9/23
11:00 AM
Big 12
Season Discussion
1:00 PM
SEC
Season Discussion
9/25
11:00 AM
Big 12
Season Predictions
1:00 PM
SEC
Season Predictions
Final Thoughts
This season will be the weirdest in /CFB's history. A Hungry Cougar in the Rain We've jumped to over 900,000 football fans with more joining every day. We continue to grow and push our outreach even farther, adding more CFB media coverage and outreach, new AMAs, and new options for our users. We're getting more and more new people being brought in by discussions of a much wider range of issues. Stay safe. Touchdown Order Ball Stay well. Wash your hands. Houston Nutt Nick Saban Watch your sources.
"But Here's some Two Cent Maneuvers" -- Week 0 Rankings: The Draft
Welcome back to another year of projections for D/ST and Kicker (and QB...and soon others too). This is an introductory post to explain what's new, what to expect-- and to give draft suggestions at the bottom. TL;DR - Models are updated for reliability. I expect Kicker to be a difference maker, perhaps QB too in smaller leagues. D/ST accuracy should be safely up there with our #1 ranker, Reddit pal Seabruh. I will also release points-allowed for new positions: WR, TE, and RB1. I'll be trying outPatreon. Unless you get a top-6 option, don't necessarily draft a D/ST or kicker for another couple weeks. Expect a lot of surprises as always.
Contents
Scope of what I do / What's new / Recap of last year / Review of what's in the model / What to expect / Draft Suggestions
What I do
If you're new to my posts, what I do is try to generate fantasy point projections (1) with improved accuracy(2) for future week planning, (3) based on crunching hard numbers without opinion ("machine learning" if we're trying to sound sexy). I give special focus to fantasy positions which I think commonly have sub-optimal rankings: But Here's the Kicker, Defensive Maneuvers, and recently Two Cents for a Quarterback. From the countless hours invested developing content, here's what you see in the end:
Weekly point projections from my own models, fit and cross-validated on historical data.
Semi-transparent methodology (see the fine print), so you can make best use of them
Multi-week forecasting, to plan your streaming strategies-- and to plan "hold" decisions
Weekly accuracy reports, for my results and for select sources.
Tailored consensus projections of hand-picked top sources
Annoying analytical posts to bring you insights ("Damnit I was told there'd be no math!")
What's new 2020
Soon I'll also be adding "points-against" posts for forecasting WR, TE, and RB1 based on "newly released" statistical models. It seems these new models could have some value to offer.
Full merging of my 2 old types of models (future-week "forecasting" and current-week "Vegas" models). No more Vegas "surprises" due to differing methods. Plus accuracy got better from this.
Not that you'll notice it, the models really are more accurate and reliable. I removed a couple overfit factors, and the new formulas seem more intuitive, boosting my confidence.
Kicker and D/ST each have an extra model now, to better sort the top-projected teams.
QB: rushing yards are broken out separately from passing yards. You suggested it, you were right (of course), I'm delivering.
"Expected weekly rank" will be reported, to assist your risk/reward thought process.
Opening for Patreon-- I felt shy about taking this suggestion from some of you before, but yeah-- truth is that sometimes I could use a small boost of motivation. But it'll be fully optional, and you will still get the meat here on Reddit. I'll just find some geeky "extras", for those of you who want to support my activities with donations.
Re-cap of last year
Last year was defined by demonstrating that my week 6 updates could boost predictive value: Capability to reach #1 for weekly kicker and QB, and top 3 for D/ST. I'll refer to you to my week 15 accuracy post, since the final ordering didn't change in week 16. (It was just a surprise crappy week for all rankers). Some extra notes: But Here's the Kicker: Kickers ended up being tougher in 2019 because many high scoring kickers had an unusually worse second half. Part of this was because good kickers started missing field goals; see here. I think that was fluky, so I'm still expecting my updated model to differentiate itself in 2020. Defensive Maneuvers: Only 4 of us in my accuracy analysis could surpass plain/stupid streaming (the strategy of using just Vegas betting lines alone). u/Seabruh repeated as top accuracy source, and all of Reddit should be grateful to have this guy around. No matter what accuracy metric I look at, he had another great year: Measuring the 95% confidence interval of predictable fantasy points: How much each source let you control the score from its bottom-ranked team to the top. Two Cents for a Quarterback: QB rankings were intended to be in "test-mode"/ beta-release last year, and the model surprised by producing top accuracy after my week 6 revision. Since it seemed helpful, I'll launch it again. Probably this is where I'll also put projections for the other flex points-against positions.
Review of what's in the model
Although I heavily guide the process, I don't choose what ends up into each model. I test >100 variables for significance, and cross-validate, add/remove/iterate, cross-validate. The method is multiple linear regression with a couple interaction terms, and the data is all in weekly time-series (no in-sample data, all foreknowledge). Additionally, I have a data-processing engine to: especially account for past opponent strength, to treat outliers, and to include the right ramp-down of previous season data. The rest is small print: Factors analyzed include things like: game scores, betting lines, total yards, rushing yards, passing yards, TDs, home/away, dome/outdoors, turf, weather -wind, temp, precipitation-, day of the week, post-bye, win-loss record, sacks/FINT, positional fantasy points --QB/RB/Wetc. and RB2/WR1/etc.--, division, and some sensible products or ratios of these. Data from both teams is tested. Also all "factors-allowed" to opposing teams --for example "points-allowed". Of course, most data gets excluded; usually only 10 variables survive to the final model. I have tested regularizing with modern Lasso regression, but the best lambda value is 0, which just means OLS is already optimal -- there are plenty more samples than variables; bias is low.I deal with team changes --like when entering a new season--by adjusting "+/- 1 standard deviation" to the given factor, based on reports of the positive/negative expectations.I also account for secondary effects based on historical correlations.What do my models overlook?Mostly the weekly details that can affect lineups and usage.E.g. I might miss changes in the OL/DL for example, or all the effects of coaching changes.Also, my database could be more complete-- I only have 1440 games of data, and I miss factors like three-and-outs, yards-after-catch, time-of-possession, etc.
What to expect
It's gonna suck. I mean it. So let's set expectations from the start. Blame yourself though, since you're the one choosing to play fantasy, and every fantasy football model will always sucks. Correlation coefficients are all under 0.5, and my accuracy improvements can't change that. We just hope my models will suck significantly less than the other sources suck. But... among the other sucky models, I do expect my KickeDST/QB to perform near the top (meaning non-sucky). For a review of how predictable each fantasy position is, here's the chart (more information in this post). Expectations for predictability levels of each position, based on the past 3 years of correlations Some reminders about expectations at Kicker: (1) My recent post about kicker streaming supports that, on average, my model should get you 9 points-- about the same as holding a top kicker in hindsight. (2) But, using the 95% confidence interval for season kicker streaming: There will be some 2.5% of you who unfortunately average fewer than 7 kicker points per game. (Sorry in advance....) Then again, another 2.5% of you may manage to get double digit kicker scoring all season. (3) To demonstrate how there will always be surprises, I thought this graph I showed last year did a good job at showing how the top-ranked guy can easily end up 8 points lower than projected. Week 7 happened to demonstrate nicely: https://preview.redd.it/8qude1p6djj51.jpg?width=1253&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=49f0386d38dbd38ef7fc37d634626df477614649
Liga NOS returns today - here is my guide for you!
Hello and welcome! As you lads might know tonight the Portuguese league returns. Yes, I know, most of you don't give a damn. But then again, football is football and right now we are probably even excited about marble races, so let's give it a try, shall we? So, to start up with here are the matches for today and tomorrow: Today Portimonense x Gil Vicente - 7pm UK Famalicao x Porto - 9.15pm UK Tomorrow: Maritimo x Vitoria FC - 6pm UK Benfica x Tondela - 7.15pm UK Vitoria SC x Sporting CP - 9.15pm UK Friday: Santa Clara x SC Braga - 7pm UK Aves x B SAD - 9.15pm UK Saturday: Boavista x Moreirense - 9.15pm UK If you want to jump to the end, check out the Liga NOS table at the moment and also some interesting curiosities about it. P.S.: NOS is the sponsorship, it's a big TV/Internet provider, but they will stop being the sponsor in 2021/22. Now a small sum up of each teams current status, hopes and expectations. 1. PORTO Porto had quite a recovery after being 7 points down on the title race, as they won to Benfica at home and saw Benfica losing against Braga and drawing against Moreirense. Then again, they could have further their lead if they hadn't dropped points against Rio Ave, but they let that one slide. + STRONG POINTS Porto's defense Alex Telles and goalkeeper Marchesin mostly, have been their best assets. Although Telles is not available for Famalicao, but if he comes back with the usual pinpoint crossing accuracy they might have gather some victories with the usual Sergio Conceicao goals: set pieces! Players to watch: Diogo Leite, Fabio Silva, Fabio Vieira, Vitor Ferreira (young blood from the UEFA Youth League victorious team) - WEAK POINTS Well, you might have figured through my nickname that I am not the biggest Sergio fan. He is not very well known to make a proper use of the youth academy and his tactics are neither productive or attractive to watch. Porto does not have the best attack or defense (Benfica holds both) and has just lost Marcano on an injury that will sideline him for 3 months. The option is to finally let Diogo Leite shine, but might be too much pressure on the youngster. Added to that, add games against Braga and Sporting to a heavy calendar and they are sure to lose some points on the way. BENFICA They are one point behind Porto, but due to the injuries of their direct rival, they might have an edge. Plus they do not have such a difficult calendar, besides trips to face Rio Ave and hosting Sporting on last matchday. + STRONG POINTS They got the best defense and attack in the league. That said, they also can rely on players that can finish with ease, like Carlos Vinicius, Rafa Silva, Pizzi, while Porto's attackers are all quite clumsy in front of goal. Players to watch: Vinicius, Florentino Luis, Ferro. - Weak Points Benfica has a strong squad but the insistence in having Seferovic upfront has brought quite some nightmares to Benfica fans, as the Swiss is not very sharp in front of goal. He has only 2 goals this season in Liga NOS (10 games) and averages 1.6 shots on goal. If Bruno Lage strategy goes through bringing Seferovic in times of need, he might be shooting blanks once again. Verdict on the title hopes: I would say Benfica will have the edge if Porto's defense crumbles under the absence of Marcano. Pepe is 37 and is injured often, so they will have to rely on Mbemba and Leite, a duo who is unexperienced and might cost points. The other teams: SC BRAGA Currently in 3rd place, 4 points ahead of Sporting, they have not lost a single game since December. Their manager Ruben Amorim arrived and left undefeated, winning to Porto, Benfica, and Sporting on the way. Sadly though, jealous Sporting down there scooped him for €10M (either the best or worst deal ever?). The new coach Custodio is not a strange face as he coached their youth squads and will likely keep the tactics and routines of Amorim, so trust in Braga to keep their 3rd place (their most challenging match will be on last day against Porto). Players to look for: Palhinha, Trincão, Paulinho, Abel Ruiz. SPORTING CP The loss of Bruno Fernandes to United in January impacted the team immensely , as they have already accounted 2 losses since then. Then the president had the brilliant idea of spending some of the cash he just got on a shiny new coach, only for corona to come up and ruin his spotlight. Well, Amorim might not have enough eggs to make omelets and Sporting should not go further than the 4th place, as they are struggling to find a player who can bring the creativity that Bruno once did. Sporar, the striker they signed in January, does seem like a good asset as a player with the same characteristics of Bas Dost. Players to watch: Jovane Cabral, Sporar, Big Dick Wendel RIO AVE Probably the best surprise of the league so far, Rio Ave have been playing very attractive football, under the command of former Swansea manager Carlos Carvalhal. They haven't lost a game since 14 of January and if they stick to 5th place they might sneak into Europa League. They have less goals conceded than Sporting and SC Braga. Matches against Benfica and SC Braga probably will be the highest worries. Players to watch: Taremi, Lucas Piazon (remember him?), Borevkovic Vitoria SC To start with it's Vitoria Sport Club, not Vitoria Guimaraes. Don't trigger a vimaranense! Vitoria are 6th and close to the desired 5th place, but they got a difficult calendar ahead with matches against Porto, Benfica and Sporting. They sold Tapsoba in January and that might impact their defense, although they won 4 of their last 5 games (the only defeat was against Porto). Players to watch: Sacko, Marcus Edwards, João Carlos Teixeira (will this kid finally bloom? Wait he is 27 already, wtf!!) Famalicao Back in October I posted here an article about the Famalicao phenomenon. Well, they are still making an impressive campaign but the hype quickly faded away as they conceded defeats to their closest rivals, being thumped by Benfica and Porto. For a newly promoted team 7th place is still a feat, but they got the top 3 on their calendar so an Europa League place seems too far out the horizon for now. Jorge Mendes will have to wait for this child to grow older. Players to watch: Neuhen Perez, Gustavo Assunção, Toni Martinez Moreirense They haven't been as strong as last season, when they finished 6th under Ivo Vieira. However they haven't lost a game since January. They have already faced Benfica (1x1 draw), but they will have matches against the other 3 teams in the top 4.. Players to watch: Fabio Abreu, Patricio Rodriguez, Pedro Nuno Santa Clara - The only team from Azores in the league, has gone through some extra sporting issues, but they have a complicated calendar with matches against 5 of the top 6. They haven't won any of their last 3 games, so they might drop some positions. They should be safe from relegation by now, though. Players to watch: Lincoln, Osama Rashid, Fabio Cardoso. Gil Vicente Guided by the veteran coach Vitor Pereira, the team from Barcelos has already played the top 3, so they got an easier calendar ahead. They have only lost one game in the last 5 matches (0-1 against Benfica) and they got a better attack than the opponents below (25 goals). Players to watch: Lourency, Lima, Kraev. Boavista They were a serious case of success in the beginning of the season, being mostly unbeaten. However, somehow they went through a managerial change (even though their coach Lito Vidigal had 18 points in 14 points) and since the appointment of Daniel Ramos they have struggled. They have 3 losses in the last 5 games and they might risk being relegation threatened if they don't get their shit together. Players to watch: Helton Leite (GK), Heriberto Tavares, Marlon Vitoria FC The other Vitoria, this one is called Futebol Clube but is from Setubal, south from Lisbon. They are coached by Spanish manager Julio Velasquez. They got only 2 points in the last month, but if it serves as consolation one of those points was against Benfica. Also, they already played the top 3 teams, so the calendar is on their favor. Don't fuck up sadinos! Players to watch: Mirko Antonucci (remember this guy Roma fans?), Tofol Montiel, Brian Mansilla Belenenses SAD Well, this is the only team who probably does not mind playing under closed doors, as this is the only way they can equal their opponents on fans. If you haven't heard about the Belenenses division interesting read here Anyway, they ere doing fine before the interruption and didn't lose any of the last 4 games. They have to face Porto and Braga still, but they should be safe from relegation (even though I wouldn't mind they dropped). Players to watch: Koffi (GK), Cassierra, Marco Matias (where are my Sheffield Wednesday fans at?) and Cafu Phete (for the South Africans out there!). Tondela This is a mystery for me, as this team always struggles but ends up being saved at last call. You know, like Sunderland years ago (so I guess when Tondela finally drops dark times wait for them: Tondela Until I Die?). They are coached by Spaniard Natxo Gonzalez and they had a pretty good season start being 6th, now dropping until 14th. They failed to win a game in the last 5 matches and they got the top 4 all in their calendar. Stay strong Tondela fans, hold up your buttcheeks together. Players to watch: Claudio Ramos (GK - seriously, how is this guy still not in a better team?), Jhon Murillo (FIFA legend), Fahd Moufi. Maritimo Edging close to the relegation zone is Maritimo, who somehow has the player with most successful take ons on all the league (Zainadine Jr), yet seem to be struggling anyway. 3 defeats in a row in their last 3 matches with games in hand against 5 of the top 6 will test the team from Madeira. Won't be surprised if they get back to Segunda Liga. Players to watch: Zainadine Junior (again, how is this guy not in a better team?), Daizen Maeda, Xadas (what happened to you mate?) Paços de Ferreira After 14 rounds on the relegation zone they finally saw the light to get out of the hole. Paços future might be positive as they got 6 points out of the last 5 games and they played Benfica already. A match against Portimonense who is just below might be a decider on who gets down and who stays up. Players to watch: Pedrinho, Tanque, Eustaquio (Canadian international!) Portimonense If you were expecting to see two teams from Algarve in the league next season and see some more Primeira Liga games while you are on Spring Break on Portimao... it might not happen. Farense did get promoted, but their counterpart Portimonense are edging by a thread. They got 5 points in the last 4 months so future seems dark. Players to watch: Jackson Martinez (he is likely to retire after this season), Mohanad Ali, Koki Anzai, Marlos Moreno (wonder where this guy had been?) Aves Well finally, if you thought Portimonense was doomed to drop, well what can we say about bottom placed Aves? Not only they are dead last, they also have some problems leaving due to owing them salaries. Their calendar contemplates matches against Porto, Benfica and Braga, so betting on them to drop seems like easy money. And thinking that not so long ago this team won the Portuguese Cup! Players to watch: Mehrdad Mohammadi, Adam Dźwigała. That's it lads. If you want to give some support and read further in depth on the league return click here Wish you some good games and might the odds be in your favor. Also fuck you Sergio Conceiçao!
Day One Here Day Two Here JULY 3RD A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT The night fighting on Culp’s Hill was slow and torturous. The Confederate assault from Johnson’s division had to cross rough terrain and a river before it even started going uphill, which at night was an incredibly miserable task even without Union troops firing at them. Union skirmishers played hell with their progress, and after brushing them aside, Johnson bumped into a defensive line that his Union counterpart Geary had spent all day perfecting. As mentioned yesterday, their only success was to grab tiny footholds on the Union side of Rock Creek, which ran between the two hills. As the fighting died away and the bone weary soldiers on both sides crashed asleep hard, Lee plotted. He smelled blood; on July 1st, they’d carved up the Union men good and drove them from the field. Yesterday, on the Union left, they’d wrecked a Union corps under Sickles, smashed into the Union center and almost broke it (damn those blue belly reinforcements showing up in the knick of time), and even gained a toehold on the Union right. The men’s morale was high. Lee decided to repeat yesterday’s plan, but better executed. Simultaneous attacks on both flanks should overwhelm them, and J.E.B. Stuart could make it up to all of them by chasing down the shattered Army of the Potomac to scoop up all the heavy guns and supplies and wounded that could not retreat rapidly. To which end, Lee sent Stuart on a super wide flanking attack around the Union right so as to be in position to strike at the right moment. Lee generated the orders in written form and sent them off by messenger to his corps commanders. Meanwhile, Meade had another war council face to face with his generals. They decided to stand pat, to neither attack the Confederate positions nor retreat back towards Washington. The terrain massively favored them and Lee would (more likely than not) walk into their gunsights again. A defensive stance, however, doesn’t mean pure passivity. A few hours after the Confederate assault petered out and Lee’s decision was made, the Union started a counterattack on a small scale. ———————————————————————— DAWN At dawn, the Union right flared up. Fresh troops had marched in overnight and Meade wanted his damn hill back. The extreme end of the Confederate left flank (which is of course opposite the Union right) found itself getting hammered in front of Culp’s Hill by artillery from the Baltimore Pike. Clearly, such a bombardment was meant to be followed up with an assault to retake the bridgehead. Johnson, having received his orders from Lee and being under the impression that Longstreet was attacking in tandem a mile and a half away on the other side of the hills, attacked Culp’s Hill again before the Union could attack him first. The plan was what the plan was; pressure here, successful or not, was needed for someone to break through somewhere. But Longstreet wasn’t attacking. Later on, Longstreet would claim to have never received the order to advance, but the sources I have assert this is untrue- he received the order, he just didn’t do anything about it. Instead of spending the night getting his troops on line to attack Little Round Top and the southern chunk of Cemetery Ridge, he just sat tight and did nothing. Oceans of ink have been spilled over the years speculating as to why. The Lost Cause narrative asserts that Longstreet was a Yankee-loving turncoat who deliberately sabotaged Lee’s plan and lost the battle on purpose. Others think that Longstreet's conviction that attacking here was insane and that they should fall back and look for battle somewhere else on more favorable terms had been strengthened by the results of July 2nd, and as such was dragging his heels trying to not attack again. Or maybe it was just the general haze of Civil War era incompetence taking its toll again. ———————————————————————— MORNING As Johnson’s men gamely attacked the untakeable Culp’s Hill and were cut down by accurate rifle fire and close range cannon fire, Lee hunted down Longstreet to demand an explanation for his borderline insubordinate refusal to attack. Longstreet pitched his idea again. He’d spent all night scouting the Union line. The enemy line was unbreakable. They shouldn’t try to attack them here. They should slip around the Union left, south of Big Round Top, to threaten the Union supply lines. Do that, they would make the Union respond to them, fight them on more equal terms. That’s the plan Longstreet had been preparing for all night, not a suicidal- Lee cut him off with a raised fist. There would be no tricky maneuver around the flank. They would assault the Union line under the present conditions. To the north, Johnson was still getting his teeth kicked in. Lee sent orders to call off the assault, but it would take a while for the messenger to get there and for Johnson to get word to his brigades to stand down and fall back. Meanwhile, across the way on Cemetery Ridge, Meade stalked his line, double checking all the positions for any confusions or errors to correct, emitting confidence and good cheer. Lee scoped out the Union center personally, being in the area anyway. His complex double flanking maneuver wasn't working. A new plan was needed. Lee figured that Meade had reinforced Little Round Top and the surrounding area yesterday, and that those troops hadn’t gone anywhere since. The Union defense at Culp’s Hill has been similarly fierce that morning, fierce enough to threaten Johnson with an offensive. If both flanks were strong... the center must be weak. Yesterday, a small Confederate brigade had crossed the Emmitsburg road under fire and smashed into the Union line on Cemetery Ridge, just south of Cemetery Hill. They had straight up routed the enemy- had there been more men available to back them up and follow through, that small brigade might have won the battle outright instead of being pushed back as they’d been. Lee was satisfied. The Union center was brittle, undermanned, and the best point to hit it was at that same place. Meanwhile, J.E.B. Stuart was stepping off on his flanking ride. ———————————————————————— LATE MORNING Johnson’s last big push up Culp’s Hill was heroic. By that time, all of them knew how strong the Union position was. They surely walked into this with their eyes open. A three brigade front set up for a shock attack, backed up by four more to exploit the hoped-for opening. Among them was the famous Stonewall Brigade, Jackson's old unit that he’d raised up and trained personally before being tapped for higher command. The Stonewall Brigade was, arguably, the elite of the Confederate army. The year before, they’d outmaneuvered and outfought a Union stab at Richmond coming through the Shenandoah valley. The charge was cut down and butchered like all the others, and Johnson fell back. Williams, whose batteries on the Baltimore Pike had kicked things off that morning, got a little overexcited and counterattacked without orders. His orders to attack the Confederate flank left his subordinates sickened with dread, but were obeyed nonetheless. Once the Union counterattack was butchered in retaliation by the entrenched Confederates, combat on the Union right ceased after six straight hours of gory, hopeless combat. Meanwhile, Confederate artillery under the command of Colonel Alexander set itself up on a mile wide front, all carefully sited and positioned both for protection and for good lines of sight on the Union center. A brief but fierce artillery duel kicked off as each side tried to knock out the other’s firing points before the big moment, but was soon cut off to preserve ammo. Lee mustered his available forces, bringing in troops that were only now straggling in and combining them with some units that had fought the day before. It was a haphazard and frankly half-assed piece of staff work- veteran units who hadn’t fought at all in the last two days were left in reserve, while exhausted troops who’d already suffered 50% casualties were included. Many of the brigades who were to charge Cemetery Ridge had green colonels in charge because their generals had been killed or wounded the day before. The gap between the northern half of the assaulting force and the southern half was four football fields long, and nobody seemed to notice or care. The division commander to lead the north side of the assault, General Pettigrew, was selected not for any rational consideration or advantage, but because he happened to be standing nearby when the decision was being made. Longstreet, who by this point wanted nothing to do with any of it, was placed in overall command. It took a few hours to organize this clusterfuck into something resembling a coherent unit- three divisions spread over a mile wide front, with Pickett on the left, Pettigrew on the right, and Trimble behind them to provide some depth to the big push. There is no particularly good reason why the upcoming Pickett’s Charge is known as “Pickett’s Charge”. Pickett was not actually in charge of it, or even in charge of most of it. He was a division commander who had never seen proper combat before- in every battle since 1861, his unit had been held in reserve or absent. This was to be his first chance to get in this war. I suspect it’s known as Pickett’s Charge because he and his men were Virginians, and it was fellow Virginians who would pour over the battle to find out why the wrong side won. Accordingly, they conceived of it as being a Virginian affair, overshadowing the Tennesseans, Alabamans, North Carolinians, and Mississippians who formed the other two-thirds of the attack. I was surprised to learn that we have a hard time figuring out how many men were actually involved in Pickett’s Charge (this being a basic narrative history, I am sticking with the common name for it despite the inaccuracy); I attribute this to the confusion involved in organizing it. I’ve heard as low as 12,500 men and as high as 15,000. I’m going with 14,000 men because it’s a nice even number that is approximately midway between the upper and lower limit, so don’t mistake my choice as being accurate or even evidence-based per se. Regardless, the agreed upon number of Union defenders is 6,500. The Confederates would outnumber the Union by about 2-1 or greater at the point of contact. These days, a lot of people show up at the battlefield and stare out from Cemetery Ridge at Spangler Woods where Pettigrew would have emerged from (or stand in Spangler’s Woods and stare out at Cemetery Ridge, same difference) and wonder what the hell was going through Lee’s head. The ground there is now flat and devoid of cover, the exact kind of terrain that time and time again had proven to be a death sentence for infantry assaults. The answer is that the ground changed between 1863 and today. Just before World War One ended in 1918, the field over which Pickett charged was artificially flattened for tank training. Before that, it was the kind of rolling terrain that Buford’s skirmishers had exploited on day one- an observer from a distance would see the troops disappear and reappear as they went over and down each gentle slope. The 14,000 attackers would have some cover as they advanced- not perfect terrain to keep immune from artillery and bullets, but not explicit suicide either. ———————————————————————— EARLY AFTERNOON By 1 PM, Alexander had his guns set up the way he liked them. What followed at his command was the single largest coordinated artillery mission that the Western Hemisphere had ever seen. In the south, cannons at the Peach Orchard suppressed the Union firing point on Little Round Top. All along Seminary Ridge from whence the charge would spring, cannons lined up practically wheel to wheel for a mile, aimed at wrecking Cemetery Ridge. Longstreet was in what you might call a high stress kind of mood. He was having second, third, fourth, and fifth thoughts about attacking, but orders were orders and he was in charge of this damned charge. As the guns began their bombardment, Longstreet did something that frankly goes beyond the pale of any command decision I’ve ever heard of. The film Gettysburg and the novel it’s based on cast Longstreet in a very sympathetic light, as a kind of deliberate pushback against the reductive myth that Longstreet was personally responsible for losing the battle and by extension the war, leaving Lee off the hook to stay firmly in the saintly canon of the Lost Cause. But here, Longstreet indisputably abdicates any pretense of the responsibility of command. He fired an order off to Colonel Alexander, telling him:
If the artillery fire does not have the effect to drive off the enemy, or greatly demoralize him, so as to make our effort pretty certain, I would prefer that you should not advise General Pickett to make the charge. I shall . . . expect you to let General Pickett know when the moment offers.
Allow me to reiterate in case you were reading this on autopilot. Longstreet, the man in charge of the whole offensive, was telling a lowly artillery colonel that the decision when and if to attack was on him and no one else. Alexander was a subject matter expert on artillery and not infantry for a reason. This order hit him from out of left field. He wrote back for clarification, and the professional in him mentioned that since the plan is to use every single artillery shell they can spare, if there is any alternative plan to charging Cemetery Hill at the end of the bombardment then they’d better tell him before he runs out of ammo. And Longstreet reiterated his first order. He told Alexander to advise General Pickett whether or not to attack. And with that on his shoulders, Alexander gave the order to open fire. All told, somewhere between 150 and 170 guns opened up at the same moment. The 75 Union cannons they had on hand briefly engaged in counter-battery fire, before being ordered to go quiet and save ammunition for the infantry assault to come. For about an hour, the Union troops just had to sit still and take what the Rebel had to give them. What Lee was doing was classic Napoleonic tactics. Massing artillery against the weakest point on the enemy line was literally by the book soldiering. The problem, as was noted here before, was that technology had changed. Napoleonic could bring his cannon close to the frontline with the reasonable expectation that they wouldn’t be shot, since smoothbore muskets are basically harmless from 200 yards away. But that was no longer the case. The long stand off distance that the enemy rifles dictated meant that the cannonfire was proportionally less accurate and devastating. The smoke covering the field concealed the truth from the Confederates- their artillery fire was off. Most of the shells flew high overhead and exploded behind Cemetery Ridge. Some shells hit the target area- Union men did die screaming by the score. But the positions on Cemetery Hill were only lightly damaged, and the units manning them were intact and cohesive. Most of the damage done was to the rear echelon types- surgeons, supply wagoneers, staff officers, that kind of thing. Such men were massacred as the shells aimed at men a quarter mile away arced over and found marks elsewhere. Meade, of course, was on hand, showing a brave face and cracking some jokes about a similar moment in the Mexican-American War 15 years back. Throughout the hour, as his line endured the steel hailstorm, Meade’s engineer mind was working. He’d already suspected that Lee was about to hit his center- he’d predicted as much the night before- and now the shot placements confirmed it. He was already ordering troops into position, getting ready to reinforce the line on Cemetery Ridge if needed. He hedged his bets, putting them in a position to relieve Cemetery Hill as well, just in case. Little Round Top became somewhat less defended as men marched out, using the high ground to mask their redeployment. Irresponsible and insubordinate though Longstreet was at that moment, he was right. Lee’s improvised plan had already failed, though it hadn’t happened yet. Pickett’s Charge wasn’t going to slam into a fragmented and demoralized Union line. It was heading into a mile long, mile wide kill zone backed up by a defence in depth. ———————————————————————— Pickett’s Charge Confederates were getting mangled before the charge even started. Union artillery fire reached out and touched out them in Spangler’s Woods, rolling solid iron shot and explosive shells into their huddled ranks. Longstreet rode the line, exposing himself to the artillery fire to set an example of courage. The men didn’t need such an example- or rather, they’ve seen such examples in a dozen battles over the last two years and have already learned valor as a second language- but there’s something to be said for showing the groundpounders that their boss is in the wrong end of the shooting gallery the same way that they are. Just before 2 p.m., Alexander decided if it’s gonna happen, it’d have to be now. He needed at least a small reserve of shells to function after the battle and he’s running out fast. He dashed off a note to Pickett telling him to step off. In keeping with the standard of Confederate comms thus far, Pickett then took Alexander’s note to Longstreet in person for confirmation, because nobody had told him that Longstreet was trying to dodge the responsibility of command. Longstreet was desperate for an out, and in one crazed leap of illogic he thought he found one. Alexander was low on shells, with only a tiny reserve of ammunition left over for self-defense! Longstreet issued orders to halt in place and delay some more, so that they could replenish their ammo chests from their strategic reserves. I really feel for Alexander, man. I've had bosses like that too. Alexander had to break the news to Longstreet that there was no strategic reserve, he already told him, they were shooting every round they got. Longstreet was shocked- apparently nobody on Lee's staff had been paying attention to how fast they'd been burning through their artillery rounds. (Meade's staff paid attention to such banal details- that's why they now had tons of ammunition standing by their guns on Cemetery Ridge, patiently waiting for something valuable to shoot at). Even then, Longstreet couldn’t bring himself to actually say the words to order the attack. He just nodded, mute and numb. At 2 p.m., the attack started. 14,000 men rose up and walked forward, a giant line of infantry one mile across. In lieu of specific instructions about where they were going and how to get there, the order was to aim for a copse of trees on the objective- an easy visual marker that was easy to remember. As long as you kept the trees in sight and kept moving forward, you were right. (Miles and miles away, J.E.B. Stuart’s flanking maneuver was being countered by an equal force of Union cavalry. Their clash had one of the few cavalry-on-cavalry battles of the Civil War; fun fact, this was one of the fights that put Custer’s career on the map, until getting killed off by the Cheyenne at Little Big Horn 13 years later. The battle was intense, but a draw; Stuart couldn’t break through. Even if Pickett’s Charge worked, there’d have been no way to follow up and finish Meade off for good. Lee’s plan was well and truly fucked.) Things immediately stopped being clean and neat, as per the usual. The center of Pickett’s Charge sprang up and walked before the flanks did, but the brigades on the south and the north of them set off late, leading to a kind of droopy effect where the center bulged out unsupported. When the Union soldiers manning Cemetery Ridge saw the Confederate advance begin, they began to chant “Fredericksburg! Fredericksburg! Fredericksburg!” Just a little “fuck you” from one set of veterans to another; at Fredericksburg eight months before, Union General Burnside had ordered several such suicidal attacks on prepared defenses which the Confederates had gleefully blasted into chunky salsa. 70 odd guns opened up on them all. To give a sense of the skill involved, the artilleryman in charge of the Union guns, Colonel Hunt, had written the book on artillery- literally, because his work Instructions for Field Artillery was the go-to manual for the US Army- and at West Point had personally taught most of the Confederate artillery officers across the way everything they knew about the big guns. One must not mistake this as just plopping down the cannons and pointing them in the right direction. Hunt was an artist with his weapon systems, and the pattern of explosions that snaked into the advancing infantry had been painstakingly designed by a master craftsman. At the distance of a mile, it was iron shot and shell that carved bloody little holes into the line. The Confederates took the beating, closed ranks, and pushed on. On the south, the cannons on Little Round Top delivered particularly hideous effects from the flank, driving their line into disorder; some brigades cut in front of other brigades, and what should have been a line became a muddled column. On the north, a brigade under General Brockenbrough bumped into a small detachment of 160 Union men who were jutting out north of the road. The Union men fired a small but devastating volley that raked them from the side and broke their nerves. Brockenbrough’s men ran- the first to break, but not the last. Similar small detachments of skirmishers dotted No Man’s Land between the armies. Between their vicious little ambushes and the massive shock of massed artillery, Pickett’s Charge slowed down. Slowing down just left them in the kill zone for that much longer. When Pickett’s Charge reached the Emmitsburg Road, they were further delayed by the stiff fencing that lined it. As they clambered over it, Union infantry opened fire at long range. The casualties skyrocketed as the Confederate line absorbed the fire. If you want to know what it was like under fire, picture the start of a rainstorm. The water droplets go taptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptap... that's how the survivors described the musketry that pelted the fence they were trying to climb over. One small contingent of Davis’ brigade (you recall how roughly they were manhandled on July the 1st) accidentally got ahead of everybody else and found itself standing right in front of the Union line all alone. The guys closest to the Union defenses surrendered as one; the rest got shot up bad and ran for their lives. Pickett’s Charge was pure chaos by then- their mile wide front that had surged forth from Spangler’s Wood had shrunk down to about a half mile, partly from taking casualties, partly from brigades running away after the shock of massed fire, and partly from bridges shifting north away from flanking fire from their right side. From the fence line on the Emmitsburg to the stone wall that protected the Union defense was about two hundred yards. This is a long shot for a rifle, especially under pressure- that’s the whole point to volley fire, so that everybody shooting at once will create a sort of probability cloud of danger even at long range. Some Confederates, desperate to hit back after enduring hell, shot anyway. Their fire was ineffective. It is a very, very short shot for an artillery piece, even under pressure. A battery of cannons placed just behind the Union line switched to canister and blasted massive bloody holes in the bunched up Confederates. A lot of Confederates huddled up behind the fencing and stayed put. It is marginally safer than moving two feet forward past the wooden railings, and the spirit had been knocked out of them by the mile long charge and the mile long shooting gallery they’d been subjected to. The left side of the attack had been stopped dead and turned back; the right side pushed on, disregarding any thought but closing distance. 1,500 men blitzed those last 200 yards to the stone wall Scores of them died from rifle fire as the cannons reloaded. The surviving Confederates, running on pure adrenaline, reached the stone wall at a place called the Bloody Angle. The Union line was disjointed, with the Northern section slightly back from the southern section. The Angle was the little joint that connected the two walls; it was also right by the copse of trees that everybody was racing towards. A fierce firefight broke out once the Confederates reached the wall. Most of them stayed behind the wall; like their buddies to the west still behind the fence on the Emmitsburg pike, they’d finally found a few square feet that was sorta kinda safe, and every instinct they had in their brains screamed at them to stay there. The Union troops were outnumbered at the point of impact, and backed off in good order. Reserve regiments were already marching up to plug the gap that didn’t exist yet. Units north and south of the Bloody Angle shifted in place to fire at the beachhead. Behind the Confederates on the Angle, there was a small ocean of blood on the ground and a mile long procession of silent, mangled dead and writhing, screaming wounded... but no follow on reinforcements to help exploit the breakthrough. General Armistead, the only Confederate General there still on his feet, still believed in all that chivalrous Walter Scott romantic nonsense, still thought that raw valor and heart could somehow beat a superior enemy. He stuck his hat on his sword as a makeshift battle flag and rallied his men to leave the safety of the Bloody Angle and close distance. Just as the pitifully few Confederates got on the east side of the wall, the cannons shot canister again and puked metal death all over them. After shooting, the artillerymen ran back to safety before the rebels could stagger up to them. Hundreds of men surged forward by inertia; hundreds out of the 14,000 that they’d started with. They drove off the understrength Union regiments with the bayonet and capture those hated big guns, turning them around to use against the inevitable counterattack. This failed; there was no more ammo left for the guns. Colonel Hunt had measured out the number of rounds needed for the job at hand with the utmost precision. The counterattack was messy and bloody for everybody involved, for the brawl saw everything available used as a weapon- bullets, bayonets, rifle butts, pistols, knives, rocks, boot heels, bare hands. But the Confederates all just dissolved after a short while. Nobody ordered a retreat; nobody was alive and of sufficient rank to order a retreat. Thousands just plopped down where they stood and waited for Union men to come out and collect them. They were too numb and exhausted to walk anymore. Others streamed back to safety in ones and twos. For every Confederate who died, four more were maimed and crippled. For every wounded man, another was taken prisoner. It was an unmitigated disaster for the Confederate cause, and correspondingly it was a triumph of humanity as the stalwart defenders of the slave plantations died in droves. Remember, like I said, we’re rooting for the Union. The battle wasn’t over, not really. Not was the campaign. But it certainly was decided. ———————————————————————— RIGHT SO Interestingly, at first it was kind of ambiguous who won. Meade got fired from the job after Lee got the Army of Northern Virginia home intact. Lincoln was seething that Meade hadn’t shown some aggression and had failed to destroy Lee’s army as he had been ordered. Meade, however, didn’t have much of an army at that point, just a diverse collection of units that had suffered 50% casualties and were in no condition to do anything. Moreover, there had been no way to bring the retreating Lee to battle without taking a lot of risks that might see all the good done at Gettysburg undone. Still though. Meade was out, and Grant, riding high after his conquest of Vicksburg, was in. Lee initially claimed victory in the Richmond papers, and it was hard to gainsay him at first. He had indisputably invaded north and thrashed the living shit out of the Army of the Potomac so bad that they could not invade again in 1863, which was indeed partly the point of the strategy. But soon the facts of life made themselves clear. Lee had holes in his ranks that simply could not be filled anymore. Southerners didn’t want to die in a losing war, and coercing in them into the ranks through State violence only gave him shitty recruits who would desert the second they were put on guard duty. In contrast, tens of thousands of men poured into training depots across the nation, all armed and clothed and fed by the grandest industrial base in the world. Thousands of experienced veterans re-upped their contracts in Gettysberg’s wake to become these new recruits’ NCOs and commanding officers. Lee has gone north to break the will of the Union to continue the fight. Gettysburg had, if anything, demoralized the Confederacy and reinvigorated the Union instead. I do not believe that Gettysburg started this trend, but I do think it sped it up significantly. Patterns that might have taken a year to come to fruition instead took months. Gettysburg, in my opinion, is significant not because of any great gains or losses on the material level, but because of its effects on the minds of voters and soldiers and politicians in the North and the South. To crib C. S. Lewis really quick, what matters was not whether a given action would take a specific hill, or seize a certain road; what matters is whether a given action pushes people to either dig their heels in and seek victory at any personal cost, or whether it pushes them to back down and seek a safer compromise. Gettysburg pushed all of the American people in the directions they were already heading down, that’s all. Any conclusion beyond that is on shaky ground, I feel. Having said that, I shall now irrationally contradict myself; Gettysburg can also act as a Rorschach test with symbols and images and stories in lieu of the ink blots. Like I said, it’s a place of religious significance to me to an extent far beyond appreciation for its historic value. I just don’t think it’s possible for that many people to die in such a short period of time, in so compact an area, and with such blunt contempt for the foreseen probability of violent death, and not leave an indelible and ineffable mark on the land itself. Like, if humanity went extinct and Earth got colonized by Betelgeusians a hundred years after, I am certain that the aliens would somehow feel a chill in their exoskeletons when they walk over the soft leaves and through the bare trees of Herbst Wood, or tromp around the south side of Little Round Top, or poke about on the steep slope of Culp's Hill, or splash across the Plum River in the Valley of Death. I’m not saying I’m right, of course. But I am saying how I feel.
I Read It So You Don't Have To: Secrets of the Southern Belle (by Phaedra Parks)
I hope the past few days have been restful and rejuvenating for you all, but -- as I'm sure you must have learned by this point -- the journey to personal betterment is an eternal endeavor. We haven't got a moment to waste, so let's bid adieu to the sunny serenity of the California coast and settle in down South with Real Housewives of Atlanta's Phaedra Parks, as she descends from her ivory porch swing and illuminates the esoteric in Secrets of the Southern Belle: How to Be Nice, Work Hard, Look Pretty, Have Fun, and Never Have an Off Moment. True to the title's descriptive and straightforward sentiments, Phaedra begins the book with a concise synthesis of the worldview she hopes to present:
I believe every woman should be a Southern Belle or minimally aspire to being more ladylike, charming, and intelligent, because we should all be treated well.
As she continues, we get our first glimpse of the deep well of compassion that underlies Phaedra's mission to improve the lives of those around her.
Honestly, I sometimes feel sorry for women of northern persuasion. There they are rushing around in their baggy, drab clothes, doing everything for themselves and looking like they just rolled out of bed. They don't seem to understand there's a better way.
Thankfully, I no longer have to count myself among that witless horde. I feel like, until this fateful moment, I have been living like one of those people from the black-and-white "before" footage of an infomercial -- haphazardly bumbling through the most menial of daily tasks with no way of knowing how much brighter my world could be. Phaedra has freed me from Plato's Cave, and I have no choice but to follow her instruction and strive to shape myself in her image. A true Southern Belle is known -- first and foremost -- for her fundamental kindness and compassion towards others, so it is only appropriate that the book's first section is succinctly titled, "Be Nice." However, even this simple directive has been trampled by the corrupting influence of the modern world. As Phaedra laments,
Unfortunately, as we see more migration from other parts of the world, we also see an increase of poor manners and rude behavior.
She elaborates, providing specific examples of the personal injuries incurred as a result of these unmannered interlopers.
I find it particularly odd in business, when the salespeople or tellers don't speak or thank you for your patronage. Don't they realize that without customers they would not have a job?
I, too, find it offensive when minimum-wage workers have the nerve to act like actual human beings rather than automatons at the mercy of my personal whims, and I appreciate that Phaedra is bold enough to ask the question that has undoubtedly been on the tip of our collective tongue. Yet somehow, she still remains humble enough to freely admit where she has room to learn; here, she lets the reader in on "something I've never quite understood about non-southerners:"
They're suspicious of basic southern warmth because they're worried it's insincere. But at the same time, they will tell you the most inappropriate things! They tell you stuff about their health that you don't want to know. They launch into crazy stories about their terrible childhoods and how misunderstood they are. They complain about what happened long ago, and they fret openly about the future. Then they tell you what they paid for things and you want to crawl under the table. Frankly, that's not very attractive.
What is attractive, then, you may ask? Effusive compliments, for one thing -- "I don't know why some people are so concerned with being sincere, when being nice is so much more effective." We also learn to "never contradict anyone, even if you know they are wrong." Phaedra illustrates this particular lesson with the following example:
If someone tells you that your taxes are due on April 30 instead of April 15, you look puzzled and say, "Goodness, I had no idea. Did they change the date?"
And what happens after that? Either the person says yes and you're forced to play along with whatever bizarre delusion and/or power-play your companion is currently indulging, or they say no and you say -- what? "Right, of course, I knew that the whole time!" Or, "Gotcha! It's April 15th, you incompetent fraud!" Or maybe, "I don't even know what taxes are -- money is for menfolk!" I just can't imagine any of those scenarios playing out with less discomfort than a simple correction, but after four years living in New England, I can only assume that's just northern negativity clouding my vision. We are next presented with a list of "compliments that come in handy," a few of which I've transcribed below for immediate incorporation into your own phrasal repertoire.
What an interesting way to think about it. (Good for a point on which you disagree with someone.)
You thought of every little detail; I love a meticulous lady!
Wow! That is so original. I would never have put it together like that. (In this South this might mean, "I hate it," but in a polite way.)
Boss Babe is out -- Meticulous Lady is in! Phaedra reminds us to keep health concerns -- "especially female issues" -- far from polite conversation, then shifts gears to a much-needed lesson in verbal comportment. It's not just their "attractive regional accents" that distinguish Southern Belles from their less-attractive northern counterparts; they also devote great attention to evoking grace through their cadence and tone.
Sometimes northern women can sound awfully abrupt. It's just a habit they have, poor things.
If you'd like to take your place amongst esteemed gentility, however, I urge you to change your ways! For one thing, when speaking, "slip in something affectionate so that a very harsh reality doesn't come across as rude or abrupt." For example, see how much unpleasant confrontation is avoided with the following turn of phrase:
Darling, don't you know you're too smart and pretty to be the town drunk?
Silly girl, haven't you heard? Addiction is for ugly people! You should also feel free to use these compliments liberally throughout conversation -- "You don't have to mean it, you know." As an example:
If you can tell that someone has put a lot of effort into a particular aspect of her outfit, just draw attention to it. Sparkly stars-and-stripes high heels could be terribly tacky, but you bet they're supposed to be noticed, so go ahead and do it. "Those are certainly patriotic shoes!"
Let me take a crack at it -- This book certainly has a lot of words in it! Writing a book is such an impressive achievement -- I'm sure it feels so rewarding to finally see it In print! And I love the way you occasionally use infinity signs as bullet points -- it's so evocative! I think I'm getting the hang of this! "Another southern difference?" As Phaedra informs us, "we try not to make direct requests. It just sounds so forward and frankly unpleasant if someone comes right out and says what they want from you." Phaedra's Starbucks barista must really despise her -- If it isn't too much trouble, could I bother you for something to drink? No, anything's fine -- I wouldn't want to impose. Almost like a modern-day Rosetta Stone, the next passage introduces us to the nuanced connotations that pervade a true Belle's vocabulary. For example, Phaedra tells the reader that "if I tell someone 'Goodness, you must have spent all day on your hair. I am so impressed!' it really means I hate it." Before I manage to convey how impressed I am by the book before me, I read on to learn that "when you're discussing a homely girl, you generally say, 'She's so smart!' The general thought is you can't be both ugly and dumb. God wouldn't be that cruel." Please excuse me while I take a few hours to re-analyze every compliment I've ever been given in my entire life. Now that that's done, here are a few more translations to help you decipher the Belles in your life.
Belle-Speak: She's a nurse-in-training. Unvarnished Truth: She dates only old men.
Belle-Speak: She's a butter face. Unvarnished Truth: Everything looks good but her face.
Belle-Speak: Hope he's got money. Unvarnished Truth: He's unattractive and pays for affection.
The second one is not even really a euphemism so much as Phaedra trying to demonstrate her knowledge of hip modern slang, but I digress. We transition into advice for conversation starters -- "don't throw them complicated or controversial subjects like politics, animal rights, or local zoning." Truly, I can't tell you how many times I've been approached at a party with an opener about municipal ordinances, and it just kills the mood like nothing else. Worried about how you'll ever find something to talk about under these restrictions?
Don't worry about sounding interesting. "Interesting" is an overrated notion. Just fill the empty air.
That…explains a lot, actually. Our next lesson is in reference to dinner parties -- "don't make a fuss, unless you're complimenting the cook." In case you're confused as to how this guidance should be interpreted, Phaedra clarifies with some examples -- "'Is there meat in here? I'm a vegetarian' is the wrong kind of fuss." Since I typically ask this question while flailing my arms wildly and making intermittent whooping noises, I completely understand how it could be disruptive amongst refined company. Although I'm starting to get a bit nervous that I won't be able to keep track of these seemingly countless rules, Phaedra's next assurance puts my mind at ease: "If all else fails, remember the secret weapon of the Southern Belle is delicate helplessness." In the next passage, we learn that, "if there's any characteristic that defines a Southern Belle, it's her habit of firing off little notes on any occasion." Just as with verbal compliments, these notes require little to no basis in factual reality -- "obviously it's perfectly all right to exaggerate." But while truthfulness is more or less dispensable, your choice of writing implement could have grave repercussions. As Phaedra exhorts, "Never, ever write a letter in pencil. You might as well not bother at all." Within the realm of pens, however, "blue and black are perfectly acceptable, even if they do lack panache." We return once again to the topic of appropriate subjects for conversation, and are cautioned against asking anyone their age. Of course, wild speculation is encouraged, "as long as you're out of earshot." In the next tip, Phaedra declares: "Don't discuss the cost of anything. Any discussion of cost is just in poor taste." I just can't help picture how much of a nightmare this woman must be at a fast-food drive-through. Our final instruction?
Don't discuss hair color. Men always pretend they don't dye their hair, so you just have to go with it.
At first glance, this seems reasonable enough, especially in the context of the social graces espoused by the book so far. However, Phaedra's attempt at further explanation quickly begins to careen off-course.
For women, it's a little bit more complicated because you have the question of whether the drapes match the carpet, so to speak. And I do know some who dye the carpet to match -- that was the big thing in high school. Now with all this weird waxing, you don't have to do as much dyeing, but that's another thing you don't talk about either!
Let's see if I've got this straight: I should always believe a man about his purported hair color no matter what, but if a woman tries to lie about hers, she'll get caught…because I will inevitably be forced to confront the realities of her pubic hair? An intimate partner, sure, but I just can't imagine this situation arises with enough frequency to merit even the few lines its given in this text. And honestly, at this point, I don't even think I want to know what Phaedra means by "weird waxing." This section of the book concludes with a final catalog of "the 'She did what?' mistakes." The list starts off strong with "wearing white to another woman's wedding." However, by the time we end on the most unimaginable of atrocities -- "drinking beer from a bottle" -- I'm beginning to wonder if this list was actually supposed to have been titled "things the sexy homewrecker does in a bro-country music video." The following section is titled, "Work Hard," and I am immediately inspired to do exactly so by the implicit challenge thrown down in Phaedra's opening lines, in which she coquettishly asks, "Who always delivers a presentation on time, with the printed materials perfectly written and proofread?" I'm usually quite good at taming my most pedantic impulses, but contrarian passions I never knew I had are foaming at the mouth to find an upcoming typo and self-righteously call her bluff. Although perhaps I should find a more feminine way to phrase that; as Phaedra cautions, "we don't like to think of ourselves as driven, because that sounds so neurotic and unpleasant." We next learn that "you cannot be a Southern Belle unless you understand what it is to be ladylike." But unfortunately, it is all too easy to be caught up in the ways of the world and lose sight of this primary calling.
A lot of women today enjoy being the feisty, brassy, foul-mouthed kind of gal who drinks with men and shows a lot of flesh. They think it's cool.
Phaedra continues and reflects that, "I've heard the argument that this is progress, from the feminist point of view, but I don't necessarily agree." I can never remember -- which wave of feminism was the one with all the feisty gals? But clearly, their agenda has gone too far! How, in contrast, does a delicate Southern Belle behave?
She looks as if she's heard of sex, probably has had sex, but has no plans to have sex with anybody in the immediate surroundings.
I'm not sure exactly how to convey this highly specific sentiment in any other way than purchasing a t-shirt custom-printed with the phrase, "I have heard of sex, have probably had sex, but have no plans to have sex with anybody in the immediate surroundings," so I hope that approach will suffice for now. Phaedra follows up by cautioning us that,
A lady never puts in the shop window what isn't for sale.
Personally, I like to think of myself as more of a museum than a gift shop, but to each their own! We next learn more about the delicate balance a Southern Belle must achieve in order to maintain her esteemed position. For example, while "she doesn't cuss and doesn't talk dirty," frigidity is similarly unbecoming -- "if somebody tells a good dirty joke in her vicinity, she'll laugh." I'm barely a third of the way through this book, and I'm already exhausted at the prospect of having to remember all of these hyper-specific edicts. It's no surprise that the Southern Belle has to remain consistently vigilant; as Phaedra intones, "coming from a Pentecostal family, I hate to see a woman down more than two drinks." It seems to me like the simplest way to avoid such emotional turmoil would be to simply refrain from compulsively tallying the beverage intake of strangers, but I soon learn there are far more perilous hazards lurking around every corner. Phaedra shares her personal strategy for avoiding the very implication of incivility in the following excerpt:
I don't ever go to the bar at a party; I think that just looks terrible. If I must have a glass of wine or crave a fruity adult libation, I'll ask a nearby man to procure it for me.
Sir! Procure me a fruity adult libation -- tout de suite! But I would hate to diminish the male gender by implying that they're only good for the acquisition of potables; no -- men can be leveraged in an increasingly broad array of day-to-day tasks. As Phaedra shares:
I have friends who have never in their lives pumped gas for their own cars. They will ask a complete stranger to do it for them. One of my besties from New Orleans will flag down a man, give him her credit card, and have him pump and pay for her gas.
Honestly, I can't help but wonder if this might actually be some kind of avantgarde performance art, in the tradition of Marina Abramović's Rhythm 0. Because the idea that this gambit has never gone horribly, horribly awry truly strains credulity. As I read on, however, I learn that my current train of thinking is sorely misguided.
Sometimes when I'm at a grocery store the fellow bagging the groceries will ask if he can take them out to my car. Why would you say no to this? But sometimes women do. And I look at them and sigh and think, "Poor thing. She has a lot to learn."
Thankfully for my personal development, the next chapter — titled "A Crash Course in Being (Selectively) Helpless" — promises exactly the sort of content that I so desperately need to understand. As Phaedra explains, a Southern Belle is "never intimidating, because some things she just can't do on her own." She goes on to offer concrete examples of how to incorporate this ethos into your life on beginner, intermediate, and expert levels.
Experts: assume help will arrive. Flat tire? Pull over to the curb, and don't sweat it. Can't figure out which wrench to buy at Home Depot? Or how to program your DVR? This is what former boyfriends and other gentlemen are for. Believe me, the age of chivalry is not dead.
Rent due? Don't sweat it -- a gallant gentleman likely already has a check in the mail. House burning to the ground around you? You should know a Belle doesn't walk down the hallway on her own two feet! Bear attack? I'm sure a male bear is just around the corner, ready to jump in and defend your honor! Without a hint of irony, we transition to Phaedra's advice for the workplace. We learn that the quintessential gentlewoman is savvy, competent, and always at the top of her game. For instance, at her workplace, "she figures out how to work the coffee machine and the copy machine." With that kind of go-getting attitude, the Southern Belle will be bound for the C-suite in no time! Provided, of course,
She never does that thing I hear of in the North sometimes of telling you how little she paid for something. Why would you brag about bargains?
I can't hear the phrase that thing I hear of in the North in anything other than the voice of Tinsley's mother, Dale. Except she would probably use it in reference to something like "giving compliments to your daughter" or "weight gain." Regardless, a more appropriate question at this juncture might be, "Are you sure this book was proofread quite as judiciously as you claimed?" As I scan the page, my eyes happen upon the line:
10 percent for tithing, if your religion encourages tithing, which mines [sic] does.
Of course, it would be entirely uncouth for me to brag about my typographical superiority in this context, so now seems as good a time as any to exercise some of my newly acquired techniques. Oh, Phaedra -- bless her heart! I suppose we can't all be detail-oriented, can we? It must be nice to be so casual and carefree when you express yourself! Without further ado, however, we move along to our next lesson -- "People don't know when you're hungry, because they can't hear your stomach growling, but they definitely know when you're homeless." To be honest, the more I think about this statement , the less sense it makes to me (people…can hear your stomach growling?). Luckily, with the jam-packed schedule of a Southern Belle, I simply don't have time to dwell on the issue for a moment longer! Our next tutorial? "If you have one fabulous pair of shoes, you will wear them to church. It is the very least you can do for Jesus." As we all know, Jesus appreciates sweet kicks, so he loves nothing more than to see you rock the newest styles when you drop by on Sunday. And besides -- the higher the heel, the closer to heaven! Phaedra summarizes the Southern Belle's can-do attitude with the line: "We all may not be sitting around big ugly Formica boardroom tables, but we get things done." As someone who has only ever attended meetings held around moderately sized tables, I find this to be a validating sentiment. When it comes to extracurricular pursuits, "beauty pageants are important." However, "as much as she loves performing, the Belle will not take to the stage: some of those theater people are just too peculiar, bless their hearts." Honestly, Phaedra and I come down on the same side on this one. But I will have to heartily disagree with her next passage -- with respect to traditions of stepping within Black Greek Life -- in which she states,
The traditionally white organizations don't have anything comparable.
Um, excuse me? Have you never seen this iconic video?! However, Phaedra does reassure us that she's far from ignorant in the ways of the world. As she states, "I have read about hookup culture and known a few easy women." Of course, easy men don't exist -- or at least, that's what I've read in all the most prominent textbooks regarding hookup culture. But don't mistake Phaedra's awareness for acceptance -- "that doesn't mean I like any of it." However, this sentiment is belied just a few paragraphs later, when our author recalls:
I offended the mother of one of my best friends once by booking some exotic entertainment at this friend's birthday party. My friend loved the anatomically exceptional dancer, but her mother was livid.
I'm sure that it was only your friend who loved the "anatomically exceptional" dancer, and I assume this must have been one of your aforementioned token "easy" friends, besides. A Southern Belle, in contrast, is interested in serious, long-term relationships. And for this purpose, "it would be much better to marry a young man that you can train. I have always said that I would rather be a babysitter than a geriatric nurse." Yet even these kinds of discrepancies seem trivial in comparison to the boundless passions of eternal love. As Phaedra shares,
I want Apollo and me to celebrate our fiftieth anniversary, so I try to overlook momentary annoyances.
That aged well. Bless her heart. We're soon treated to a cheeky list of "what her husband doesn't know," which echoes several key themes from earlier in the book -- most notably in its bizarre fixation with pubic grooming.
He doesn't know what her true hair color is, because the curtains always match the carpet.
He doesn't know how often she waxes, or exactly what waxing entails.
He doesn't know that she has her own credit card, her own savings account, and a safe-deposit box.
I've got to say, that last one hits just a little bit different with hindsight. Always timely, however, are Phaedra's views on the importance of the homemaking arts. In this evocative passage, she describes the primal horror of an encounter with a woman tainted by an unimaginable curse:
A nice lady from another part of the country recently confessed to me that she doesn't know how to do any crafts. In fact, she said, she gets all nervous and antsy in crafts stores, because they're so full of things she doesn't understand. I laughed like I thought she was joking, but really, I felt bad for her. Imagine not knowing how to make all those cute objects that brighten up lives in the South! I shudder to think what the inside of her house looks like!
With that fable still ringing in my ears, we transition to the next section of the book: "Look Pretty." Phaedra reflects, "I am always shocked when I leave the South and encounter the enormous number of women who don't seem to understand how their clothes should fit." Now feels like an appropriate time to draw attention to the book's back cover, in which an open-mouthed Phaedra swivels her torso in such a way as to create a bulging protuberance across one half of her chest. In awe of her commitment to inclusivity, I now realize this could only have been an intentional choice to make herself seem more approachable to us northern oafs, and for that I am eternally grateful. Phaedra goes on to inform us that, "personally, I prefer skirts and dresses over pants." However, although "high-waisted pants and pants with visible hem cuffs are quite elegant and ladylike," one should take care never to forget that "minimalism and menswear looks are just puzzling and not appealing to a Belle." I, too, must admit that I find menswear looks puzzling -- a girl? in boy clothes? I just can't make heads or tails of it! And this is far from the only contemporary fad that baffles the true Southern Belle. As Phaedra continues:
I've never understood the appeal of the natural look. It's so easy to improve your appearance; why wouldn't you take advantage of the many beauty aids available to you?
In a frankly unexpected dig against the ceramic arts, Phaedra notes that "unless you are a professional potter (and I don't think Southern Belles generally are), your nails need to be clean and filed." More generally, your physical proportions should remain mild and inobtrusive:
Ever since voluminous behinds became fashionable, I often see these lumpy, huge derrieres on women with legs as thin as a chicken's, and I think God would never put a rump roast on toothpicks, so why did you do that?
That's why I always caution my friends to pair their butt implants with a battery of leg implants, in order to really round out the overall contour of the body and mimic that structurally stable, God-given look. After all, as Phaedra quips: "'Knowledge is power' -- that's my motto." But this knowledge doesn’t come without a price; being as world-wise as Phaedra often requires direct confrontation with the atrocities of today's world. As she recounts, for example: "I was astonished to find out that not every woman possesses a lint roller." It's truly a tragedy to learn how the other half lives! We are next informed that, "you have to have your ears pierced, but only one hole in each ear." The consequences for an infraction of this critical edict are left unvoiced, from which I can only assume that they are swift and merciless. Any self-respecting Southern Belle has a taste for the finer things in life, and Phaedra is no exception. As she remarks:
I love diamonds; I'd have a diamond duvet if I could afford it.
Because I am less fiscally endowed, I have had to settle for stuffing my duvet with assorted Swarovski crystals, at least for the time being. However, I'm eager to upgrade -- I can only imagine that the extra hardness of the diamonds will add a satisfying acupuncture affect to my nighttime regimen! Phaedra moves on to fashion advice, and cautions the well-heeled Belle to remain conservative in her fashion choices. But don't worry -- there is a time and a place to let loose and express your more artistic side. Or, as Phaedra says, "something a little funky or ethnic may even be appropriate from time to time." To further illustrate this principle, she explains: "If I were going out West, for example, I might wear some turquoise bracelets." But some things are a bridge too far! Any woman with a modicum of dignity would know never to be caught dead in "polar fleece," "a naughty-nurse costume," or "footed pajamas." We are also encouraged to carry around a hand fan -- "the elegant way to stay cool" -- as well as a "small leather-bound notebook for jotting down inspirations." I lose my train of thought for a moment, caught up in a daydream about the ingenious wonderings that must be contained within Phaedra's hallowed journal. But I'm brought back to reality by a declaration of "what's not in my purse," beginning with the stern pronouncement: "any kind of contraband substance." Our pilgrimage to polite society continues with a comprehensive exploration of the monogram's social gravitas. As Phaedra intones, "I've even seen cars with a very discreet monogram on the driver's door." But with light must come darkness, and the next chapter bravely confronts an issue many others would fear to face: "Looking Like a Tramp" ("There, I came right out and said it," Phaedra breathlessly gasps below the harsh text of the passage's title). She gathers herself together and courageously reports, "some women look downright sleazy." Alas -- even more tragically -- couture catastrophes are not restricted to those of legal majority. Phaedra heroically pulls back the curtain on a nationwide epidemic of wardrobe misconduct being perpetrated against society's most vulnerable:
I saw a picture not long ago of some hippies or hipsters or whatever you call them from some remote city. The parents looked the way you'd expect them to look, a little bit bedraggled, but the worst thing was they had this adorable little baby all done up in a black onesie. And as far as I could tell, it wasn't even Halloween!
How to combat this terrifying trend? Phaedra offers words of wisdom: "Little Southern Belles always look sweet and appropriately girlish." Specifically, we are encouraged to incorporate design elements like "tasteful, conservative rickrack." By way of further explanation, she clarifies that, "what they don't do is dress like Lady Gaga in dresses made of butchers' best cuts of beef." I'm disappointed to learn that my idea for an Etsy store selling bespoke meat-based children's clothing might be a nonstarter, but I suppose I appreciate our author giving it to me straight. Another childcare commandment?
No costumes outside the house. Of course every little girl loves to play dress-up. But I truly dislike seeing Snow White or a fairy princess trailing along behind her mother at the Piggly Wiggly.
As she sits in her living room, most likely waiting for a man to come to her aid for some reason or another, Phaedra is struck by a sharp, blazing pain. As the flash of blinding torment subsides, she catches her breath and shakes her head wearily -- another costumed child has gone into a grocery store. Forgive their guardians, for they know not the harm their actions have caused to our author's delicate and genteel sensibilities. But it does us no good to dwell on the darker side of life! Rather, we'll move right along into the book's final section, "Have Fun." However, this does not seem to be exactly the same kind of "fun" colloquially mentioned in mainstream circles. Rather, the Southern Belle defines fun with the principle, "everybody needs to know that you made an effort." For example, "if you're pouring punch into paper cups for a gaggle of seven-year-olds, put a spring of mint in it." My previous experiences in the general vicinity of children lead me to believe that at least 75% of the seven-year-olds in this group would respond to this elegant enhancement by dumping the punch out on the ground because it has a gross plant in it. Maybe that's part of the fun? No analysis of Southern culture would be complete without a discussion of that most hallowed of pastimes -- college football. And although "only a really unusual woman watches football alone," it is imperative that a Southern Belle attend the social events associated with the on-season. What's more, she should take care to do with impeccable style. As Phaedra laments:
Sometimes I see pictures of women in store-bought football jerseys and I feel sorry. A store-bought jersey does nothing to flatter the feminine body.
As for the game itself, minimal understanding is required -- "Naturally a Belle knows how much men enjoy telling her things, so she isn't shy about asking questions." True to her generous spirit, however, Phaedra nevertheless provides a basic primer in the rudiments of the sport:
Basically each team is trying to get the ball through the tall H-shaped goalposts at the end of the field. […] The problem is that the ball can look awfully little from pretty much anywhere in the stands. There's no shame in watching the video replay to see what really just happened.
As a final tip, Phaedra suggests that "belles whose husbands have season tickets might even invest in matching linens and china." Our next unit of instruction concerns the arrival of a newborn bundle of joy; as we learn, "the birth of a baby is a big deal in a southern family." It's so interesting to learn all of these unique cultural details! I don't know if I've ever heard of another culture that places such importance on birth -- I'd love to get an anthropologist's take! There are also strict guidelines to which one must adhere regarding the naming of a debutante-in-training:
A Southern Belle's name: -- is obviously feminine. -- is two syllables or more (names like Ann or Joan seem abrupt, like so many Yankees). -- is a real name, not a geographic feature like Sierra. -- means something. Preferably something nice.
Once born and appropriately christened, children should be painstakingly shielded from the contaminating influences of the world at large. Phaedra explains that "pop culture is full of children behaving disrespectfully." Without the slightest suggestion of self-reflection, she goes on to declare that "besides, we think TV characters are basically tacky." Phaedra reiterates a few of the courtship commandments mentioned previously, most concisely in the adage, "Belles don't date losers." And, as any suitor worth his salt should know, "a date with a Belle is no time for a boy to experiment with 'alternative' clothes or grooming either." Instead, a Southern Gentleman takes care to keep his language clean from distasteful or offensive language -- "For instance, why say 'liquor' when you can say 'adult refreshment'?" As we near the end of the book, it seems only fitting that we take a few pages to cover the traditions and rituals associated with life coming to a close. Buttressed by her extensive knowledge of mortuary science, Phaedra instructs us:
Postmortem is no time to experiment with cosmetics. No one wants their sweet aunt Gertrude looking like some ashy Jezebel when she meets Jesus.
The passage concludes with the brassy observation, "we don't usually cremate in the South; we figure if we wanted to burn we'd just live recklessly and go to hell." Before the book closes in earnest, Phaedra shares a few of her special, meticulously developed recipes. The most evocative of her culinary optimizations is a recipe for sweet tea, in which she thoughtfully informs us, "sweetness can be personalized by adding more water or ice to the tea." The book's final pages contain an instrument designed to measure the effect of the preceding 252 pages on one's essential courtesies, charmingly titled "The Belle-O-Meter Quiz." As Phaedra explains:
So, ladies, how are you doing? I'm sure you've all been very attentive to my suggestions and are amazed by the results. You're probably totally used to a steady diet of compliments and flirtation and invitations. But here's a little quiz in case you feel the need to measure how far you've come.
If you'd like to take the full quiz, you can do so here. But if your busy Belle schedule doesn't permit you to devote that much time to something so self-indulgent, a few example questions are provided below:
Your routine greeting when you meet a new person is: a. A surly glare. b. "Hi." c. "Well, hello! How are you today?"
If your gentleman friend brought you a corsage to wear on a date you would: a. Put it in the refrigerator. Nobody wears corsages nowadays! b. Pin it to your coat collar and check your coat. c. Pin it in an unusual spot like your waist or behind your ear, after extracting one little blossom to put in his lapel.
The answer key informs us that answering mostly C's means that "you are a genuine Southern Belle." As Phaedra goes on to suggest, "maybe it's time to share your new skills with a friend and pass along this book. I hope it's been helpful to you." As a book hoarder of the highest order, I will have to skip that suggestion, but I am nevertheless thankful to move one step closer to self-actualization with the help of another Real Housewife. Until next time! Upcoming plans in comment below!
Over the years, sports betting has become more popular. It all started with fantasy sports games and the ability to analyze player statistics. This soon moved into betting where you can look at odds and back your favorite teams to win money. Indeed, many sports enthusiasts have said that it boosts their fan experience and makes games more exciting. Six out of 10 Americans said that they approved of sports betting. But how much do you really know about the ins and outs of sports betting? For example, you may have heard of the term ‘arbitrage’. But do you know what it means? Let’s take a look. What is an Arbitrage? We all know that in any capacity, gambling is about risk. You are betting money with the potential to win or lose. So, when it comes to arbitrage in sports betting, this is about people wanting to better their odds of winning. An arbitrage involves making several bets on the same sports match in order to win and gain a profit from the event. Indeed, people believe that it no longer matters what the result is; they think they will win either way. It is viewed as security when it comes to sports betting. There are many ways that you can enjoy arbitrage betting. For example, it can be used in roulette, craps and online blackjack, but it is particularly popular in sports betting since you can bet on the two teams that are playing against each other. For instance, this can be done in soccer, American football, basketball and baseball. The idea is that you use different sportsbooks to spread the risk. 📷 Are There Advantages to this Strategy? Of course, the purpose of arbitrage betting is to always win. In this way, a lot of players view it as a safe strategy that means that you are going to profit every time you play. If you are new to gambling, perhaps you view arbitrage betting as a safety blanket. But this is going to be the case if you do it right. What’s more, you often only make a small profit from this type of strategy. The only thing is, it is easy to get carried away when it comes to arbitrage betting. In other words, you can get too confident and end up making mistakes. This is the last thing that anybody wants. Thus, you will need to do a lot of work in order for this strategy to be successful for you. As arbitrage betting means there is a small profit margin, this means that some people will make high bets. Again, if you do not do your research, this means that you could end up losing big. In addition, you have to be careful. There are some sportsbooks that do not like arbitrage betting. This means that your account could be closed and it may be best to adopt another strategy. The purpose of gambling is to have fun and see if you can win. Trying to beat the system is not always the best idea nor is it the easiest.
Effort post: Why hatchlings ARE a problem, and how to fix it without disrupting the rest of the game.
Before anything else, it should be emphasized that the developers of the game agree that hatchlings are a problem. Nikata said the following in the 0.12 podcast:
The thing is, the initial problem of Hatchlings is that they are playing as not intended -- they just rush into some places and get [a] LedX or key or something valuable like hoses and screw nuts and they just die and disconnect. This is not cool at all and this is one kind of problem that I want to fix in the game.
Maybe you disagree with Nikita and think hatchlings are fine. Allow me to elaborate further, then. 1. Hatchlings are not playing the game the way it was intended to be played Even if you ignore what Nikita said, it is still very clear that the game was not intended to be played this way. For one, the game is called Escape from Tarkov, after all. Hatchlings are not necessarily trying to escape. While some indeed bring a backpack with them, the strategy that most hatchlings are doing does not require that. They simply rush the best loot, use the secure container, die or disconnect and repeat. Streamers have shown themselves earning millions in less than an hour from this strategy. The game is not a foot race to the best gear. It's a military sim with survival and RPG elements. 2. Hatchlings hurt mid and late game progression for other players After a certain point, simply collecting whatever you can get your hands on is not as profitable as prioritizing certain items and spawn locations during a raid. This is because as a player progresses through the game, the value of the items they bring into the raid is generally going to increase. The three ways mid and late game players make a profit (extract with more loot than the value of the gear they brought in) is by looting high value locations, killing other PMCs and taking their gear, and by killing raiders and bosses. Hatchlings make this more difficult than intended in two respects. The first is obvious, they are more likely to get to the high value spawns than a geared player. Even if a hatchling and a geared PMC spawn equidistant and both instantly sprint to the loot, the hatchling will still make it there first because of the weight mechanic. The second problem is that hatchlings don't bring anything into the raid themselves. In fact, you're gauranteed to lose money by killing a hatchling because the bullet will be worth more than the non-existent gear they have. It's simple math, fewer PMC with gear, less potential profit. 3. Hatchlings make gameplay easier, and less interesting PVP is one of the things that makes Escape from Tarkov interesting. Even if you are not attempting to PVP, the risk of encountering a player who is adds an element of excitement, tension, and even terror. Rival PMCs are supposed to be a threat, not just to your income but whether or not you make it out of the raid alive. However, every hatchling is one less PVP encounter. They aren't there to play with you. It's like if you're in a football match and the other team is just jogging around the field. Sure, it will be an easy win for you, but where is the challenge? Nobody would pay tickets to see a boxing match if one of the fighters just stood there. Nobody would bet on a horse race if most of the horses are just going to walk. Even if a player is just trying to rat it up and hide from a more aggressive player like me, at least I still get the enjoyment out of hunting them down, or they get the enjoyment of getting away undetected. Hatchlings don't offer that. Hatchlings don't feel the thrill of life vs death in this game because the only thing they lose is matchmaking time. The Solution: Timed Secure Container We need a solution to this problem that addresses the three elements above without drastically altering the actual intended gameplay. The prior solution of making hatchlings tagged and cursed was rather clever and entertaining, but soon savvy player groups used it to bait scavs into easy kill zones. Proposals involving changing AI behavior or increasing the amount on the map or in an area are likely just too unreliable to be an effective deterrent to hatchlings. Limiting what can be put inside a secure container would also adversely effect regular players so that isn't a desirable idea either. This solution would be simple. For X minutes after spawning, players cannot put an item into their secure container, only take items out. The exact timing can be tweaked as necessary. Different maps would also likely need different timers. This addresses the problem that hatchlings cause at every level. First, hatchlings are required to play the game more closely as intended. Even if they make it to that graphics card, they still have to actually survive for a little bit before they can put it in their secure container. This would discourage the concept of the hatchling entirely, as they would likely decide to bring guns or armor to at least survive the first minutes necessary to make it out with their precious loot instead of just be a sitting duck. Second, because hatchlings are more likely to, well, not be hatchlings anymore, you now have players bringing gear into the game that other players can profit from if they claim their life. Considering that the hatchling can't even put something in their container for a few minutes, they are at the very least bringing a vest or a backpack until then. Third, even if someone still goes hatchling, at least the gameplay is made more exciting. If some hatchling needs to duck and weave, play stealthy, and avoid detection before they can die/disconnect with their valuables, at least they still have to play some of the game, and other players get to play with them. The secondary benefit of the timer is that it does not really impede on a regular PMC's ability to play the game, as most of the time PMCs are trying to survive longer than five or ten minutes anyway. It might suck if you are a PMC who managed to get the valuable loot early on, only to die before you can get it into your container, but I do not think this is a big enough problem to impede the entire idea. If anything, it would encourage more tactical and strategic gameplay around high-value areas, instead of the mad rush in and out that it is now. The timed secure container can also be modified. Perhaps the more gear you bring in, the shorter the timer on putting things into the secure container. This rewards players who bring more gear to the raid by allowing them to safely deposit valuables sooner than players bringing less gear (and thus taking less risk). For a player with 1 million rubles of gear, their secure container timer might only be 30 seconds. For a hatchling it might be 10 minutes or more. Another way to modify the timer is instead of having a single timer at the beginning of the round, the container can also enter a cooldown every time an item is put into it. This means that not everything can be put in at once, and it also has the added benefit of balancing the advantages of a container size a bit. I still think Battlestate Games should try a timer at the beginning first though. In Conclusion Hatchlings are not playing the game the way it was meant to be played to the detriment of other players in the game. Not only do they grab the most valuable loot at zero risk to themselves, but they also harm the progression of more experienced players by depriving them of a potential source of PVP loot. In addition, they make the game less interesting by entering a raid as neither a threat nor an entertaining target. They are playing the game like it's an offline experience. By adding some kind of timer to the secure container that prevents objects from being placed inside for the first few moments of the game, you will heavily discourage hatchling gameplay, and mitigate most of the negative consequences that it brings. EDIT: Another problem with Hatchlings: The Lack of Counterplay There is currently no counter-play to hatchlings. Like I said in my OP, if you spawn equidistant from the loot, they will beat you there because they are faster, and killing them once you finally catch up won't make a difference because they already "won" the race to the loot. In practice, this effectively means that the only way to beat a hatchling is to spawn closer to the loot than them, which is completely up to RNG, which you can't play against. What a secure container timer does is introduce counter-play. It's no longer about who had the better random spawn. It's about who can actually beat the other in fair competition. If the hatchling gets there before I do, then I have the chance to hunt him down and defeat him. If I get there before the hatchling...wait a minute...what is the hatchling supposed to do? And this is where player behavior changes naturally. The hatchling has to ask himself "If I don't get to the loot first, I won't have a chance to get it unless I bring a weapon. So I'm going to bring a weapon just in case." Now the hatchling is participating in the gameplay and interacting with the other players, instead of running around irrespective to what the other players do. FAQ Q: What about moslings, pistolings, and low budget runs? A: Moslings and pistolings are not really a threat to gameplay in my opinion. While not very valuable for a mid or high level PMC to kill, low level PMCs can gain from fighting them. Moslings and pistolings also present an actual threat to the survival of other players, and need to be dealt with despite their low gear. Q: I'm not good at the game, how am I supposed to afford things without hatchet runs? A: If you are not skilled enough to survive with your gear, then it is probably better to get more comfortable with less expensive gear first. While filing cabinets don't have as much loot as a tech room does, you can still make some decent cash from selling duct tape, bolts, and screws, that is more than enough to fund your budget loadouts. Q: What if I'm just trying to challenge myself by surviving naked or going from zero to hero? A: Then these changes shouldn't affect you. Q: How dare you tell me how to play the game? A: How dare you make the experience worse for everyone that doesn't play like you? UPDATED FAQ: Q: Can't hatchlings just hide until the timer runs out? A: Hiding is not always as easy as it sounds, especially around the valuable loot areas. Instead of instantly disconnecting as soon as they get the valuable loot, they have to actually move away from the area. In doing so, they will often run into geared players that are sometimes less than a minute behind them. Q: This won't 100% fix the problem, so why bother? A: Anti-cheat doesn't 100% fix cheaters. Performance updates don't 100% fix performance issues. New servers don't 100% fix server load issues. There is never a 100% fix to anything. It's absolutely true that some hatchlings will still exist, however that's not the point. On maps like reserve or shoreline I often see 4+ hatchlings every match. One of my raids last night my buddies and I were almost certainly the only PMCs with gear in that entire raid. Even if there are still one or two hatchlings in every raid, that's still a massive improvement to the way it is now. Q: Just lock the container for in-loot raid? A: This would work, but it would also unfairly punish geared players and players just trying to get some quests done. The timer is meant to target hatchlings specifically without impeding the progress of other players as much as possible. Q: Why not more AI? A: AI is unpredictable and unreliable as a balancing measure. We've all seen scavs wander far away from their spawn and wind up somewhere you would never expect. That said, more AI + a timed container would probably fix the problem for good. Q: Wouldn't this just discourage people from bringing in gear even more? A: I don't think so. Most geared players intend on surviving longer than the timer would affect them. I also think that this is where the option of reducing the timer based on how much gear you bring would come into play. Q: Wouldn't this slow down the game and make it a camp-fest for the first X minutes? A: That's entirely a possibility. I'm not sure if slower paced gameplay is necessarily a bad thing for Tarkov though. If anything, there's already too much action in the beginning of the raid, with very little action as the raid goes on. Slowing down early raid action would mean a wider dispersion of action across the entire raid, rather than half of it happening in the first minutes. Q: Isn't it "intended" gameplay subjective? A: To some degree it is. However hatchlings are not actually playing the game. Please read the rest of the post before asking this question. Q: Don't hatchling dogtags give you money? A: Yes, I forgot about that. Oops. That said, many players often ignore hatchling dog tags because they would rather not expose themselves for somebody they know doesn't have much worth taking. If I kill a hatchling from 100m away, I probably won't bother checking his body. Q: Should't I be entitled to use the container I paid $150 for?! A: First off, this isn't taking away your container. Secondly, you didn't pay $150 for it. You paid $45 for the game, plus whatever the value of a season pass, extra stash, and better trader reputation. The container is only a fraction of that cost. Finally, even if you did pay $150 for that container, it shouldn't be immune to balancing, lest the game be pay-to-win. All that extra stuff is a thank you gift for donating extra to the development of the game. Don't let it go to your head.
Hello! Welcome or welcome back to Capy's Survivor! This season we are headed to Redemple Temple! We are once again playing the game of outwitting, outplaying, and outlasting your fellow castaways, whether that be by flirtatious behavior, backstabbing your opponents, or making plenty of allies. This is Capy's Survivor: Redemple Temple! I will not be doing write-ups with the posts because I don't have time. I will instead work on them while I can, and post a post with some of them once I'm done. Meet the Castaways: Ometepe Tribe: First off, the captain of this tribe:
Layla Worthington, 31, from Cook Islands, Micronesia, and Heroes vs Villains (4th, 4th, 5th)
Now the newbies:
Wally 'Wall-Man' Jones, 21, College Football Star (made by u/swoldow)
Wally Jones has been a sports prodigy his whole life, growing up in a tiny town, where he was able to excel in every way. He was born the day after his town's draft day for Football, so he was the oldest and biggest kid, and was constantly pressured by his father, a former football star into working out. Wally listened to him, but as a result, felt constantly stressed, having to appeal to his dad's hopes. He worked day and night to be in peak physical condition, and by the time high school football came around, Wally was an unstoppable force. Nearly impossible to be tackled, he was compared to an actual wall, and given the nickname 'Wall-Man' as a result, which stuck throughout college. Wall-Man is now graduating this year from a prestigious football university, but despite his fame, and wanting to make the big leagues, he feels something missing. On a whim, he told his father he wanted to play House of Temptation, and despite his dad doing everything in his power for him not to, Wall-Man persisted, as he wants to use this as a spiritual experience so he can truly discover who he is.
Gonzalo Richardz, 48, Firefighter (made by u/zohnster)
The Baltimore fire chief is a great leader in his field. Intelligent, Gonzalo is a great force in the groups he is part of. At the same time that he leads his team firmly, he is part of a crossfit team and there he is called Gonzo by his friends. The father of eight children and the grandfather of five grandchildren, Gonzo is proud of his life and everything he has built.
Barak is a very confident man in his strategy and in his power of persuasion. In addition to training physically every day, he works hard on his brain to be the best version of himself every day. Arrogant sometimes? YES, but you have a good heart of loyalty and trust.
A 3AM YouTuber who arrived late to the trend, Alexa has a tendency to flex her belongings when no one really cares. She was recently involved in a scandal where she faked her boyfriend's death, causing endless amounts of controversy. Her sub count is dropping significantly every day, so she joined to help gain her popularity (relevancy) back.
Edmund Coral, 60, Museum Curator (made by u/TDSwaggyBoy)
Edmund was always his dad's favorite. His father was a British gentleman, and his mother was from the US. They lived in the UK until Edmund turned 17, but then moved to the US. Edmund always felt like an old soul trapped inside a young man's body. He was very serious and polite ever since he was young, and most kids looked at him weirdly. However, Edmund didn't mind the stares. He was not going to lie to anyone about who he was. A lover of art and history, Edmudn decided to become a curator, thinking this job was the right fit for him. Edmund is married, and has been for the past 35 years. Together with his incredible wife, Shannon, he has four kids and seven grandkids. They are his pride and joy, other this his job. He hopes to win the money, but alas, just being out there will be fun. He supposes. Although Edmund is not out here for "fun".
Claire Atkinson, 32, Police Sergeant (made by u/Twig7665)
Claire grew up in the countryside with a Caucasian father and a Native American mother. When she was young, she would often reject her Native American roots in favor of her father's ways. As she got older, she began to respect Native American culture much more, and started advocating for their rights. Eventually, she decided to join her local police force, and rose through the ranks to become a sergeant. She is going on Survivor to make a better life for herself.
Craig looks the type of a typical model, but in reality, he's studied this game inside and out for much of his life. He's a superfan of Survivor, and he plans to play the most dominant game this series has ever seen. He has a tendency to crack jokes even in the darkest of times, and he is ready to leave the game a winner.
Growing up in an Orthodox household she was very hidden and shy, but once she graduated high school and joined a sorority she came out of her shell. She continues to come out of her shell every day.
Zapatera Tribe: First up, we have the returnee captain:
Mark 'Kruseman' Kruseman, 29, from China, Micronesia, and Heroes vs Villains (3rd, 2nd, 3rd)
Next, because spots weren't filling, I filled them with two characters of my own:
Noujir was brought up by a very traditional Sikh family. He didn’t really have many interesting experiences or adventures growing up since he spent most of his time studying. After years of studying, he became a successful optometrist and is quite happy with that job. However, he still craves that sense of adventure he missed out on as a kid so he decided to apply for Survivor after becoming fascinated by the game.
Arturo 'Art' Hiere, 69, War Veteran (made by u/IAmWolfNinja)
Art is a veteran of the Vietnam War and is traumatized by what he saw. After returning home, he was shunned by his hometown due to what certain soldiers did in Vietnam. As a result, he is very anti-social. He's hoping Survivor can offer him a new beginning.
Gabriel Tenkerman, 28, Tattoo Artist (made by u/TDSwaggyBoy)
Growing up, Gabriel had nothing. He was always the rejected child - going from foster home to foster home. He never had anyone by his side, and honestly? He's thankful for that. Because of those rejections, Gabriel became the man he is today - which is honestly not a good thing, but in his eyes it is. He grew stronger and stronger, and now he'd like to believe he's in prime shape. In a game all about lying, backstabbing, cheating and stealing, Gabriel thinks he can excel. He's done all of that before, after all.
Born into a rich family, Lita has never had to work for anything in her life (or so her father says since she was the salutatorian of her graduating class). Her father sent her out to Survivor to observe is she's worthy to take over the family business, and how well she does under pressure and around others. Lita doesn't want to take over her fathers business since it harms so many innocent people, and is looking to takeover it just to sell it, and give it's profits to charity. She hates her father, and has told him that multiple times, but he doesn't listen to her.
Darci Crossley, 41, Radiologist Technician (made by u/NahuelFire39)
Darci Crossley is a fairly competitive woman. She was born in a medium sized house in London, England. She only has her mother Betty Crossley, as her father abandoned her mother when he found out she was pregnant. When she was a teenager, she watched an Australian show called "It's A Knockout!" and has since become a fan of the show. Yellow is Darci's favorite color because of Queensland (QSD). Darci accepts challenges for fun, although she can be too competitive. Darci and his mother traveled to the United States for a life and for Darci to have a job, and he did, as a Radiologic Technologist.
A French born Vietnamese child, Justine was brought up by a tiger mother and a father that she barely talked to nor cared for. Her mother would always try to push into the route of her choosing, Justine being a free spirit, hated her mother’s ideal future for her so she decided to run away at the age of 16. For the rest of her teen years, she moved from different locations and joined a “gang” where she managed to get money by doing many different things. She then decided to reinvent her image by going full goth and getting tattoos and piercings, something her mother would never approve of. She eventually got a job as a bartender and there she met a coworker with a very similar story to her. They instantly connected and became really close. She doesn’t keep in contact with any of her family members except for her brother from time to time and is completely fine with that.
Season:Capy's Survivor: Redemple Temple 20th- Kruseman- Being a returnee, he already had a target on his back, and he knew it. He tried to form an alliance with Lita, Talie, and Justine, who he knew were already close, but they already decided to make Noujir their pet goat. He also noticed an alliance forming between Art, Bridgette, and Gabriel, which he wanted to take advantage of. So he approached Darci and told them that the 3 females were too much of a threat and they should take them out. Both Darci and the other alliance agreed. But Darci thought Kruseman was more of a threat, making him the first boot in a 5-4 vote. 19th- Noujir- Zapatera continued their losing streak, and it was a tale of two alliances. They both tried to get Darci, and she decided to stay loyal. The other alliance knew this, and Talie found the idol, but she decided that it would be best not to use it, as they could gain trust in a revote. The other side decided that it would be best to take out the goat instead of the challenge beasts. It was a 4-4, with Talie's alliance shocked she didn't play the idol. She then proceeded to flip, causing Noujir to go home on a 4-2 revote. Redemption Duel 1- Kruseman beat Noujir 18th- Bridgette- Even though they are already in enough of a minority, Talie wants to throw the immunity challenge, because she says they might get lucky in a tribe swap. She does end up throwing it, and Zapatera is sent to yet another tribal council. Darci approaches the Coven, as Justine, Talie, and Lita have dubbed themselves. She tells them that Bridgette is going, they agree to this. But then, Justine has an idea, she has Talie approach the other side, as they know she flipped, and tells them this info, they just argue with Talie, and say that it will just be a blindside, which seals Bridgette’s fate instead of Darci’s because they voted Talie, which the Coven knew they would, so Bridgette goes home in a 4-3 vote. Redemption Duel 2- Kruseman beats Bridgette 17th- Art- Zapatera loses yet another immunity challenge to the now overpowering Ometepe tribe. At their camp, both the Coven and Art and Gabriel approach Darci, as the swing vote. She decides that a rock draw might be the best bet, but she quickly realizes that she might go home, so she flips with the Coven, but it is already too late. Art goes home by a revote of 3-1. Redemption Duel 3- Kruseman beats Art 16th- Darci- Ometepe wins yet another immunity challenge (and even less screen time because I don’t have time for that) sending Zapatera to their 5th tribal in a row, with still no tribe swap. The Coven decides that Darci is untrustworthy, and they really have no use for her anymore, so they send her home in a 3-2 vote. Redemption Duel 4- Darci beats Kruseman 15th- Gonzo- Zapatera finally won an immunity challenge, sending Ometepe to their first ever tribal council. At the camp, Layla has amassed quite the following. She has aligned and made an alliance with Barak, Craig, and Gonzo. She has also formed a strong relationship with the 2 swing votes, Claire and Alexa, who think the 3 of them are the alliance. She rallies for Edmund, which gets back to him, and he has an idol, so he plays it. By a vote of 3-0 (6 blocked), Gonzo goes home. Redemption Duel 5- Gonzo beats Darci 14th- Barak- Zapatera manages to win their second immunity in a row, sending Ometepe to another tribal council. Knowing that Edmund is probably coming after her, Layla decides to side with them and take down the swing votes, as she knows it most likely won’t matter come the merge. But little does the other alliance (Edmund, Jess, Wall-Man) know, Layla knows a bit more than them. She knows that Claire has an idol, which she shared this information with Layla because she is under the assumption that they are close allies. Layla tells her about the vote, and says they are voting with the other side to secure a bit of trust. Claire plays her idol, and with another 6 votes blocked, Barak is blindsided with 2 votes. Redemption Duel 6- Barak beats Gonzo, returning to the game. 13th- Barak- The host announces the merge is happening, and he also announces that returning to the game is… Barak. Craig wins the immunity challenge. The former Ometepe tribe decides that Lita seems like the most physical threat from the other side, as she came second in the challenge. But Layla, being the mastermind of the game right now, tells Edmund, Jess, and Wall-Man that Barak is the target, as they can’t have him running around telling the Zapatera about their actions. Layla and the alliance heads to the former Zapatera members, and tells them this. So by a vote of 7-5, Barak is sent home. 12th- Craig- Justine manages to snatch this immunity win, and The Coven has a plan already. They know that Layla is the mastermind behind everything on the other side of camp, but they don’t want her out just yet. They want to get her guards down, and possibly crack the other side. So they hatch a plan, They approach their fellow former Zapatera, Gabriel, and tell him that Craig is the target, knowing that he will go tell Edmund, Jess, and Wall-man, which he does, and they tell the swing votes, Alexa and Claire, this as well. The Coven also approaches Layla and Craig, and tells them that Wall-Man needs to go, as he is an athlete. They agree, and Layla goes around telling everyone that Wall-Man needs to go, which causes a bad taste in the other former Ometepe’s mouths. But, just to cause drama, The Coven decides that they are voting Alexa, in case of an idol and to try to crack the other side. At tribal council, by a vote of 6-3-2, Craig is sent home. 11th- Alexa- Claire manages to snatch the immunity win, guaranteeing her a spot in the Final 10. Layla thinks that their best bet would be to gain The Coven’s trust, after last tribal’s masterminding, and vote with them, for the goat Alexa. But The Coven doesn’t believe that Alexa is the real target, and they know Jess is more than likely one of Layla’s goats, so they decide to vote for her. Layla also approaches Claire, Edmund, Wall-Man, and Jess about this vote, who are all hesitant at first, but then decide it for the best. The Coven manage to get Alexa and other former Zapatera Gabriel on their side. So its a 5-5 tie, and Gabriel, knowing it is more than likely already too late, decides to flip and vote Alexa out in a 5-3 revote. Redemption Duel 7- Craig and Alexa beat Barak 10th- Jess- Claire manages to win another immunity, which keeps her safe from the crosshairs of Layla and The Coven. Layla approaches Edmund, Jess, Gabriel, and Claire and tell them all that Wall-Man is the target. Edmund decides that trust is probably best at this point, and tells Wall-Man about this, who is now angry at Jess for deciding not to, and they have a realization that Jess is goat #1 for Layla, so they approach The Coven, knowing they probably want her out and tell them this target. They think this is perfect for them, and agree. They also convince Gabriel, who is in the same mindset as Edmund right now, to vote for her. So at tribal council, by a vote of 6-3, Jess goes home, making Layla angry, as she was Layla’s number 1 priority for FTC. Redemption Duel 8- Jess and Alexa beat Craig 9th- Wall-Man- Justine manages to win the immunity challenge, her second overall. The Coven also decides that Wall-Man is probably Layla’s next priority, and they want to break her down as much as possible, but don’t want her to get a shot at redemption. So they, along with Gabriel, decide to vote for Wall-Man. But, Gabriel tells Layla, trying to gain her trust, and she thinks that this is a perfect opportunity to mess with The Coven, as Wall-Man was not her priority, but she wants them to think that. She tells Claire that Wall-Man is the target, but Claire doesn’t believe her, and she decides to vote Layla to stir up the pot a bit. Edmund and Wall-Man are still under the impression (a la Coven) that Claire is the target. At tribal, by a vote of 5-2-1, Wall-Man is sent to Redemple Temple. 8th- Edmund- In a shocking twist, it is revealed that another immunity challenge will happen right then, and another person will be going home. The Coven think this might be the best time to get another one of Layla’s numbers out, as Layla has immunity. They decide that Edmund is the target, and tell this to Gabriel. Layla tells Claire, Gabriel, and Edmund in a last ditch effort that Lita is the target, to her dismay, Gabriel sticks with The Coven, and Edmund doesn’t believe her, voting for Claire, sending Edmund packing in a 4-2-1 vote. Redemption Duel 9- Jess, Alexa, and Edmund beat Wall-Man 7th- Layla- The Coven decide that it is late enough to boot Layla, and that with this many people they assume are on Redemption, they doubt she will come back. So they tell Gabriel, which has already been approached by Layla, basically on her knees begging him to go to rocks, but he claims at this point, he wouldn’t do that for anyone in this game. So Layla goes home 4-2. Redemption Duel 10- Jess, Alexa, and Edmund beat Layla 6th- Claire- This vote was simple, as Claire was the only Ometepe left, and Gabriel knew there was no use flipping. So Claire goes home 4-1. Final Redemption Duel- Jess beats Claire, Edmund, and Alexa to return. 5th- Gabriel- The former Zapatera are shocked when the ultimate goat, Jess, is back. And on top of that, she wins immunity! The vote is all over the place, with no more alliances. But, this is not true, as Justine and Talie decide they want a fair chance at Final Tribal Council, but they think that Gabriel might cause a bitter jury more than Lita would, so they decide he needs to go. Gabriel is sent packing in a 2-1-1-1. 4th- Talie- Jess, apparently hardened from her time in Redemple Temple, wins the Final Immunity challenge. Justine and Talie decide that Lita is going. But Justine does the math and she realizes that Talie will easily beat her in the FTC, and decides that bringing Lita as a goat is more of a fighting chance, and she tells this to Lita (minus the goat part). Talie goes home right before FTC in a 2-1-1. Final Tribal Council- Justine wins by a jury vote of 7-1-1. Tied for 2nd- Jess and Lita 1st- Justine Thoughts: Somehow, Zapatera, coming into the merge down 8-4, with an idol in their pocket, manages to make the Final 4 (Before Jess), with the idol being wasted at the Final 5 by Talie. That is all, thank you. (also the was The Coven managed to slowly crumble Layla’s game was cool). Also a great season, but it was run by 4 people, so not much returnee material to work with. Possible Returnees: Justine, Lita, Jess, Talie, Gabriel, Edmund, Layla, Kruseman
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