Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. Where the same poll applied different screening methodologies (All Adults, Registered Voters, Likely Voters), the result is shown as the most restrictive (Likely Voters > Registered Voters > All Adults). This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
Fox News	7-19	National	49	41
ABC News/The Washington Post	7-19	National	54	44
Gravis Marketing	7-18	South Carolina	46	50
Public Policy Polling	7-18	Michigan	51	44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	7-16	Kentucky	41	53
OH Predictive Insights	7-16	Arizona	49	44
Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape	7-17	National	49	41
Alaska Survey Research	7-17	Alaska	48	49
Monmouth University	7-15	Pennsylvania	51	44
NBC News	7-15	National	51	40
Ipsos	7-15	National	47	37
Quinnipiac University	7-15	National	52	37
YouGov	7-15	National	47	39
Rasmussen Reports	7-15	National	47	44
Monmouth University	7-15	Pennsylvania	52	42
YouGov	7-15	National	49	40
Morning Consult	7-15	National	47	39
Change Research	7-15	Michigan	48	42
Change Research	7-15	Wisconsin	48	42
Change Research	7-15	Pennsylvania	50	42
Change Research	7-15	North Carolina	47	46
Change Research	7-15	Florida	50	43
Change Research	7-15	Arizona	51	45
Change Research	7-15	National	51	41
Gravis Marketing	7-14	Texas	44	46
Gravis Marketing	7-14	Florida	53	43
Civiqs	7-14	Montana	45	49
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-13	National	48	39
RMG Research	7-13	National	46	39
YouGov	7-13	Missouri	42	49
Public Policy Polling	7-13	Montana	42	51
GQR Research (GQRR)	7-13	Nebraska CD-2	51	44
John Zogby Strategies	7-12	National	49	42
Gravis Marketing	7-12	Georgia	45	48
YouGov	7-12	Arizona	46	46
YouGov	7-12	Florida	48	42
YouGov	7-12	Texas	45	46
University of Texas at Tyler	7-12	Texas	48	43
GBAO	7-10	North Carolina	48	46
GBAO	7-10	Arizona	47	46
GBAO	7-10	Iowa	45	48
Morning Consult	7-10	National	48	39
Auburn University at Montgomery	7-10	Alabama	40	55
Data for Progress	7-10	National	51	41
Public Policy Polling	7-9	North Carolina	50	46
Public Policy Polling	7-9	Alaska	45	48
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-8	National	43	39
Rasmussen Reports	7-8	National	50	40
Ipsos	7-8	National	43	37
Opinium	7-8	National	52	40
Research Co.	7-8	National	49	40
YouGov	7-8	National	49	40
PureSpectrum	7-8	National	47	37
Public Policy Polling	7-7	National	53	42
Trafalgar Group	7-6	Pennsylvania	48	42
Public Policy Polling	7-6	Maine	53	42
Trafalgar Group	7-3	Florida	45	45
YouGov	7-2	National	45	40
Monmouth University	7-2	National	53	41
YouGov	7-2	Texas	44	48
Public Policy Polling	7-2	Texas	48	46
University of Montana	7-1	Montana	37	52
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	7-1	National	55	41
Gravis Marketing	7-1	Arizona	45	49
Public Policy Polling	7-1	Michigan	50	44
Ipsos	7-1	National	46	38
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-1	National	56	44
Public Policy Polling	7-1	Colorado	56	39
IBD	7-1	National	48	40
Data Orbital	7-1	Arizona	47	45
YouGov	7-1	National	49	40
Morning Consult	7-1	National	47	40
Change Research	7-1	National	49	41
Change Research	7-1	Arizona	51	44
Change Research	7-1	Florida	50	45
Change Research	7-1	Michigan	48	43
Change Research	7-1	North Carolina	51	44
Change Research	7-1	Pennsylvania	50	44
Change Research	7-1	Wisconsin	51	43
East Carolina University	6-30	North Carolina	45	43
Suffolk University	6-30	National	53	41
Pew Research Center	6-30	National	54	44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	6-30	Missouri	48	46
Siena College	6-30	New York	57	32

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet, but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

bliponaship - Week 5 Picks

Last call on college football bets

NCAA Football Week 5 - Analysis, Predictions and Odds

NCAA Football Week 5 - MAC's Analysis, Predictions and Odds
2021 College Football National Championship Odds + Pick
Clemson +200 Alabama +400 Georgia +2000 LSU +10000 Notre Dame +4000 Florida +1200 Oklahoma +2800 Texas +4000 Auburn +6600 Texas A&M +5000 (MAC's Power Pick) Miami (FL) +8000 Oklahoma State +10000
MAC's NCAAF Red Alert Action - 10/03 - No. 13 Texas A&M (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 3:30 PM ET Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL TV: CBS Spread: Alabama -17 Money Lines: Texas A&M +605 / Alabama -855 Total: 51.5
Texas A&M Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Ainias Smith 1 Rushing: Isaiah Spiller 117 Passing: Kellen Mond 189 Receiving: Caleb Chapman 40 Sacks: Micheal Clemons 1.5 Interceptions: Leon O'Neal Jr. 1
Alabama Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Najee Harris 3 Rushing Najee: Harris 98 Passing: Mac Jones 249 Receiving: Jaylen Waddle 134 Sacks: Labryan Ray 1.0 Interceptions: Thomas Fletcher 0
Quick Trends: Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Aggies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games on grass. Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Texas A&M busted up Vanderbilt 17-12 last weekend as quarterback Kellen Mond aired it out for the small 189 yards and got himself a touchdown. A&M running back Isaiah Spiller grabbed himself the small 117 rushing yards in the unwatchable low scoring game.
Alabama smacked up Missouri 28-19 Bama quarterback Mac Jones passed for 249 yards and put 2 in the end zone, while running back Najee Harris put in his 98 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. This week both teams meet up for a good ol boys SEC game in Tuscaloosa.
The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, but on the flipside 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Alabama has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October, but just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Tide can go get it done but reports coming in from our affiliates are ambivalent to give all those points away on the road at best, our consensus is going with Texas A&M to cover the chalk mainly because of the edge at quarterback.
MAC's Game Prediction: Alabama 31 Texas A&M 27 Play: Texas A&M +17
10/03 - No. 18 Oklahoma (1-1) at Iowa State (1-1)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA TV: ABC Spread: Oklahoma -7.5 Money Lines: Iowa State +210 / Oklahoma -260 Total: 62.5
Quick Trends: Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Cyclones are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Sooners are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Sooners Team Leaders: Touchdowns Seth McGowan 2 Rushing Seth McGowan 134 Passing Spencer Rattler 677 Receiving Marvin Mims 111 Sacks DaShaun White 2.5 Interceptions Delarrin Turner-Yell 1
Cyclones Team Leaders: Touchdowns Breece Hall 4 Rushing Breece Hall 257 Passing Brock Purdy 356 Receiving Xavier Hutchinson 69 Sacks JaQuan Bailey 3.5 Interceptions Mike Rose 1
Oklahoma ran through Missouri State 48-0 in their opener, then hit a wall on Saturday with a depressing 38-35 loss against K-State as a insanely obnoxious 28-point favorite. Quarterback Spencer Rattler some how passed for 387 yards with four touchdowns even with 3 costly interceptions.
Iowa State laid down against Louisiana Lafayette in their opener, and bumbled a cover against a suspect TCU team, final 37-34 as 3.5-point road favorite they should have had no problem with a soft line like that. Quarterback Brock Purdy got off 211 yards 1 touchdown, running back Breece Hall got 154 yards and 38 attempts and 3 trips to the end zone.
The Sooners are paying the books at 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall has Vegas building skyscrapers with bettors money, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, I mean these guys are a bunch of bums when it comes to getting the money. Now if you've been putting your action on Iowa State as a underdog you've made some cash, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home dog, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss, I mean these guys are a golden egg if you play the line right.
MAC is setting the standard and putting the business on the table, sharps and early money aren't making a dent in the line because oddsmakers made a tight one this week. MAC's looking at Spencer Rattle as the x factor, if he steps up this could very well be a easy win + cover for the Sooners, Iowa State is getting the 7.5 and MAC smells something fishy about the hook, play the over set at 62.5 up from 61.5 and don't be scared to give the points because Rattler will look like a stud this week against a mediocre Cyclone D. watch "Brock Purdy Lips" gets manhandled by DaShaun White.
Iowa State Injury Report - T. Milton WR - Ques Sat - Milton was unavailable for the previous game due to a lower-body injury and it is unknown if he will line up versus Oklahoma on Saturday. R. Hudson OL - Ques Sat - Undisclosed T. Downing OL - Ques Sat - Downing missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status for Saturday's contest against Oklahoma remains up in the air.
MAC's Game Prediction: Oklahoma 45 Iowa State 24 Play: Over 62.5 Play: Oklahoma -7.5
No. 7 Auburn (1-0) at No. 4 Georgia (1-0)
Auburn made bacon out of the boys down in Kentucky 29-13 last weekend to cash in as a 6.5-point home favorite, big Bo Nix passed for 233 yards with 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and looking like a god damn stud averaging 6.8 rushing yards a game, MAC would let his daughter and mother date a guy like this, and they got wide receiver Seth Williams coming in catching six passes for 112 yards 2 TDs.
Georgia looked like decent, getting through Arkansas 37-10 last weekend was impressive but not really, QB Stetson Bennett threw for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and surprisingly no picks. Georgia scored 22 third quarter points to take control after going into the half down 7-5, now that could be good football but MAC is saying fluke and calling shenanigan's.
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA TV: ESPN Spread: Georgia -6.5 Money Lines: Auburn +200 / Georgia -250 Total: 45
Auburn Team Leaders - Touchdowns D.J. Williams 1 Rushing Bo Nix 34 Passing Bo Nix 233 Receiving Seth Williams 112 Sacks Daquan Newkirk 1.0 Interceptions Roger McCreary 1
Georgia Team Leaders - Touchdowns Zamir White 1 (MAC's #BumAlert Prospect) Rushing Zamir White 71 Passing Stetson Bennett 211 Receiving Kearis Jackson 62 Sacks Nolan Smith 1.5 Interceptions Richard Lecounte 2
Auburn gets the money early in the season and has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 October games, but be cautious because Bulldogs are money makers too, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Tigers just can't get through Georgia and have sucked against the spread going 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Georgia and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Now MAC would normally stay away from a game like this but it's hard to bet against big Bo Nixon and that up tempo offense. Georgia -6.5 is a suckers bet, take those points and ride Bo's back like the rest of the Tigers!
MAC's Game Prediction: Georgia 17 Auburn 27 Play: Auburn +6.5 Play: Under 45.5 (Get That Hook)

College Football Bets Thread

The MAC’s Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis

The MAC’s Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis
Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis
Written by Lester Cullen on October 8, 2020
Boom...and we’re in Week 6 of the college football season (Corona Edition), even the SEC came to play. We will take a look at some of our consensus plays and provide some opinion based insight to put together some ATS winners.
For starters we will look at the Gators/Aggies matchup. The line has fluctuated from 7 to 6.5 and currently at Caesars Palace the spread is Florida Gators -6.5 -115 and Texas A&M +6.5 -105, linemakers are playing with the juice, moving it around a bit and charging to get the dog, they must think they have the number nailed at a touchdown spread and MAC is looking to beat that number!
Florida Gators vs Texas A&M Aggies-
The Florida Gators have come out of the gate hot, QB Kyle Trask throwing 10 TD passes through their opening two games of the season. They have busted open the ATS record, going 8-3-1 through their last 12 games a legit 2-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP poll after Georgia took the lead ahead of them following the Bulldogs win over Auburn.
The Aggies are 1-1 to start the season and they have a weak secondary that should get destroyed by the Gators offense. The MAC tends to stay away from Conference games because odds are usually tight & tough, it can be hard to find a solid pick, but our consensus groups have the Gators as a move and with the spread less than a TD this game has value
Play - Gators -6.5 (+10 Units)
Quick Trends-
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games as a favorite. Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games on grass. Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Over is 8-1 in Gators last 9 games as a road favorite Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss. Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a home underdog. Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Under is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Boston College Eagles -
If you look at the recent trends for the Panthers, you see a team that is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games. That being said, the Panthers have been winning their games outright, they are 3-1 in the early going of the season, they just can’t get a cover, it’s pathetic, oddsmakers are cashing in on Pitt.
The Eagles have been great ATS, covering in 8 of their last 10, but as far as this game, our information is telling us to stay away. Boston College defense has nothing to brag about, unable to stop 3rd conversions makes a case for betting the over, the offense can’t run the ball, averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and they are last in the ACC in both of these categories. Jurkovec has thrown 2 picks, one in the end zone and the Heels took it home for a meaningless win, one good thing is they don’t lose fumbles and are +5 in turnover margin.
MAC has Panthers to win this one, the line is -6 and has moved back and forth from 6.5 and 6, but most importantly MAC sees action coming in on the total and is moving on the over, opening at 46 and currently set at 44 this should be an easy 55-60 point game. The trends seems to be the under but going against the grain is why The MAC is one of the most recognized sports gamblers in the industry.
MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Pitt 35 - BC 23 Play - Over 44 (+5 Units) Play - Pitt -6 (+5 Units)
Quick Trends-
Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog
Miami Hurricanes vs Clemson Tigers -
Given how dominant the Tigers have been in the ACC over the past few years, it is usually a bad idea to bet against them.
The odds makers are giving them too much respect, our scouts are saying the line isn’t this high because of public money, it’s an inflated spread and could be a suckers bet.
Let’s consider the fact that the Tigers have failed to cover this season and are now on a run of failing to cover in 4 straight games. MAC says play the ML hedge if laying the points, be smart and use bankroll management.
The Hurricanes have not had a lot of joy against Clemson in recent years, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference foes. With 43.3 points scored this season they are ranked #7, this could be another over play, though with the total set at 62, we will have to wait to see some line movement before placing any action on it.
MAC has no apprehension when it comes to taking a shot and going against the grain, it’s what makes him a Vegas specialty. Take Miami to cover, take them, take the points, and take it to the bank.
MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Miami 21 - Clemson 35 Play: Miami +15 (+15 Units) Play: Miami ML +450 (+4 UNITS)
Quick Trends- Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
The Gambling Report

Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis

The MAC’s Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis

Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis
Written by Lester Cullen on October 8, 2020
Boom...and we’re in Week 6 of the college football season (Corona Edition), even the SEC came to play. We will take a look at some of our consensus plays and provide some opinion based insight to put together some ATS winners.
For starters we will look at the Gators/Aggies matchup. The line has fluctuated from 7 to 6.5 and currently at Caesars Palace the spread is Florida Gators -6.5 -115 and Texas A&M +6.5 -105, linemakers are playing with the juice, moving it around a bit and charging to get the dog, they must think they have the number nailed at a touchdown spread and MAC is looking to beat that number!
Florida Gators vs Texas A&M Aggies-
The Florida Gators have come out of the gate hot, QB Kyle Trask throwing 10 TD passes through their opening two games of the season. They have busted open the ATS record, going 8-3-1 through their last 12 games a legit 2-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP poll after Georgia took the lead ahead of them following the Bulldogs win over Auburn.
The Aggies are 1-1 to start the season and they have a weak secondary that should get destroyed by the Gators offense. The MAC tends to stay away from Conference games because odds are usually tight & tough, it can be hard to find a solid pick, but our consensus groups have the Gators as a move and with the spread less than a TD this game has value
Play - Gators -6.5 (+10 Units)
Quick Trends-
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games as a favorite. Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games on grass. Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Over is 8-1 in Gators last 9 games as a road favorite Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss. Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a home underdog. Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Under is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Boston College Eagles -
If you look at the recent trends for the Panthers, you see a team that is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games. That being said, the Panthers have been winning their games outright, they are 3-1 in the early going of the season, they just can’t get a cover, it’s pathetic, oddsmakers are cashing in on Pitt.
The Eagles have been great ATS, covering in 8 of their last 10, but as far as this game, our information is telling us to stay away. Boston College defense has nothing to brag about, unable to stop 3rd conversions makes a case for betting the over, the offense can’t run the ball, averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and they are last in the ACC in both of these categories. Jurkovec has thrown 2 picks, one in the end zone and the Heels took it home for a meaningless win, one good thing is they don’t lose fumbles and are +5 in turnover margin.
MAC has Panthers to win this one, the line is -6 and has moved back and forth from 6.5 and 6, but most importantly MAC sees action coming in on the total and is moving on the over, opening at 46 and currently set at 44 this should be an easy 55-60 point game. The trends seems to be the under but going against the grain is why The MAC is one of the most recognized sports gamblers in the industry.
MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Pitt 35 - BC 23 Play - Over 44 (+5 Units) Play - Pitt -6 (+5 Units)
Quick Trends-
Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog
Miami Hurricanes vs Clemson Tigers -
Given how dominant the Tigers have been in the ACC over the past few years, it is usually a bad idea to bet against them.
The odds makers are giving them too much respect, our scouts are saying the line isn’t this high because of public money, it’s an inflated spread and could be a suckers bet.
Let’s consider the fact that the Tigers have failed to cover this season and are now on a run of failing to cover in 4 straight games. MAC says play the ML hedge if laying the points, be smart and use bankroll management.
The Hurricanes have not had a lot of joy against Clemson in recent years, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference foes. With 43.3 points scored this season they are ranked #7, this could be another over play, though with the total set at 62, we will have to wait to see some line movement before placing any action on it.
MAC has no apprehension when it comes to taking a shot and going against the grain, it’s what makes him a Vegas specialty. Take Miami to cover, take them, take the points, and take it to the bank.
MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Miami 21 - Clemson 35 Play: Miami +15 (+15 Units) Play: Miami ML +450 (+4 UNITS)
Quick Trends- Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

MAC's College Football Report Odds + Plays - Week 4

Chwf3rd'd My Guys

This is a list of "my guys" from this years draft. The common theme is that every one on the list was a breath of fresh air when I watched them on film and I have each player above the consensus, some significantly so. Some of the guys are highly regarded top end players, some are day 2 type of players, and some are day 3 players that I tagged as really good bets to exceed expectations. For the top end players, these are the guys I feel immensely confident in becoming high end NFL players. For some of the players listed I fully understand the significant issues holding them back but they may have some fantastic trait or are incredibly fun to watch. I create full positional rankings and big boards but the success of my evaluations this year, in my opinion, will hinge more on how the players fare that I feel especially strong towards.
Here is my list from 2019:
https://www.reddit.com/NFL_Draft/comments/bbi73chwf3rds_my_guys/
From 2018:
https://www.reddit.com/NFL_Draft/comments/8ct6na/chwf3rds_my_guys/
From 2017:
https://www.reddit.com/NFL_Draft/comments/675cbc/5_prospects_i_have_significantly_above_the/
This year I did an additional list of late Day 3 guys that I feel good about.
Jordan Love, QB, Utah St, 6'3/224
Grade: Round 1 (Top 20 overall)
I would take Love in the top 10 overall if I had a need at QB. Love easily has the best arm talent in this draft class, routinely making jaw dropping throws. He's not a Josh Allen type either with scattershot accuracy and only capable of throwing the fastball. His accuracy is precise at all levels and he can manipulate his velocity and throw with touch. Furthermore, Love is a very mobile QB with the ability to evade pressure, escape the pocket, and keep his eyes downfield. Some of his throws on the run are reminiscent of Patrick Mahommes or Carson Wentz. The issue with Love is simply decision making - locking into his first read or trusting his arm too much. However, you look at his 2018 season and the volume of those bad decisions is not there. In 2019, Love lost not only his coaching staff but his main offensive weapons as well. Considering his elite traits, I'll gladly bet that Love can return to his 2018 form.
https://gph.is/g/aKAgJje (throw vs LSU)
https://gph.is/g/Z5YbQ36 (rollout)
https://gph.is/g/4L5bqK0 (tight window)
https://gph.is/g/aQO5gDA (touch)
Cam Akers, RB, Florida St, 5'10/217, 54% SPARQ
Grade: Top 20
A former top recruit, Akers chose to go to Florida St at the wrong time. Akers demonstrates every trait I look for in a RB at a high level - burst, toughness/violence, contact balance, lateral agility, and receiving ability. He didn't have the stage of Swift, Dobbins, CEH, or Taylor and didn't have the same type of huge games given the awfulness of Florida St. However, he's the most well rounded of the top RBs this year and has the highest upside. The one issue I have with Akers is questionable vision at times but it's hard to know whether to attribute that to him or the OL.
https://gph.is/g/apb5eq6
https://gph.is/g/aKAbBy3
https://gph.is/g/4bB5Yen
Antonio Gibson, RB, Memphis, 6/228
Grade: Round 3
Gibson mostly played slot WR at Memphis but I project him as a RB. As a RB, Gibson's combination of size, speed, and receiving ability creates an upside similar to David Johnson. Gibson doesn't really know what he's doing at RB yet and is a projection but he demonstrates phenomenal traits for the position including burst, contact balance, and lateral quickness. He is dynamic player with the ball in his hands, whether on receptions, carries, or special teams, with special athletic ability and open field vision. Not only is his upside as a RB through the roof but his floor is decent as well as a great returner and valuable gadget player on offense. His SMU game is maybe the most fun game I've watched this year.
https://gph.is/g/ZOk5mNj (crazy run)
https://gph.is/g/EGgbr8M (catch in traffic)
https://gph.is/g/aeA5wDX (return TD)
https://gph.is/g/aXJ53nR (good run)
https://gph.is/g/aKAb9z9 (receiving TD)
Rico Dowdle, RB, South Carolina, 5'11/213, 81% SPARQ
Grade: Round 4
Dowdle demonstrates all the traits you look for in a high level 3 down RB but lacks the production to match. He's a high level NFL athlete and that athleticism shows on film with his awesome burst. He's a really tough runner with good size, contact balance, and a compact and powerful frame. He demonstrates decent vision behind the LOS and has receiving ability to boot. He doesn't have a ton of wiggle but everything else is there.
https://gph.is/g/46vb3Y8 (tough run vs Alabama)
https://gph.is/g/ZWw52yv
https://gph.is/g/amX59YJ
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona St, 5'11/205, 89% SPARQ
Grade: Round 1
Aiyuk is my WR3 and ranked in my top 20 overall. Aiyuk can create easy separation all over the field in a variety of ways: deep with straight line speed, with physicality, or with quickness and burst out of breaks. While he's not necessary a burner, Aiyuk is one of the most twitched up and dynamic WRs in this draft. He has the rare ability to cut without losing much speed and maintaining that speed after the catch. He's not necessarily a jump ball catcher but he has flashed the ability to make contested catches. Even in games where his production wasn't there, he's consistently open play after play. He's sometimes portrayed as just a deep ball and YAC guy but he has the ability to be so much more than.
https://gph.is/g/Zd75D5D
https://gph.is/g/4zqY3DK
https://gph.is/g/4AjblvO
https://gph.is/g/Z2mbxg7
Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 5'11/206, 89% SPARQ
Grade: Round 1
Reagor is my WR4 and in my top 25 overall. Reagor immediately stands out when watching him as he looks like he's moving at a different speed than everyone else on the field. He's exceptionally twitched up and explosive and is among the easiest separators in the entire class. His game just looks effortless. Not only does he offer separation, YAC, and deep speed but he also shows the ability to make contested, difficult catches and displays excellent body control. He's a lot more well rounded to me than someone like Henry Ruggs or KJ Hamler. My biggest issue with Reagor is that he struggles to extend beyond his frame and thus doesn't give his QBs a huge target.
https://gph.is/g/4w8d3Lx
https://gph.is/g/4L5bpev
https://gph.is/g/ZPm5zPX
Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 6'1/227
Grade: Round 1
Shenault is my WR 5 and in my top 25/30 overall. For clarity, my grade is not taking into account injury concerns as I don't have access to his medicals. Thus I wouldn't be surprised if he drops due to medical issues and I'm fine if that's the case. Nonetheless, Shenault has largely been forgotten about given the combination of WR depth this year and his injuries. He really shouldn't be as he is such a dynamic and exciting WR with huge upside. My comp for him is Sammy Watkins and AJ Brown. He has RB size with awesome physicality and YAC ability. He's a little raw in his routes and Colorado didn't do him a lot of favors as they just wanted to get the ball in his hands as much as possible and the easiest way to do so was on wildcat plays, reverses, and screens. Nonetheless, Shenault expresses excellent route running traits and creates easy separation with his burst and physicality. While I don't think he's a burner, he has sufficient speed to threaten and win deep. Combined with his contested catch ability and skills with the ball in his hands, Shenault is an incredibly exciting WR prospect.
https://gph.is/g/apbqw33
https://gph.is/g/Z7ge57R
https://gph.is/g/46vO5Dd
https://gph.is/g/ZrdDloG
Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina, 6'3/212
Grade: Round 2 (top 35 overall)
Edwards is another WR that is being somewhat overshadowed due to injuries and WR depth. Like Shenault and Aiyuk, Edwards is another big, dynamic, explosive WR with phenomenal YAC ability, toughness, and physicality. Furthermore, Edwards has been incredibly productive at South Carolina starting with his true freshman season at only 17 years old. Edwards can line up all over the formation and turns into a RB with the ball in his hands. Not just a YAC guy, Edwards flashes fantastic hands and the ability to make incredible circus catches. While he doesn't create consistent separation, his quickness and burst is more than sufficient.
https://gph.is/g/EJYbRne
https://gph.is/g/a99bdlP
https://gph.is/g/EGgb9Ml
https://gph.is/g/aRW5N7w
James Proche, WR, SMU, 5'11/201
Grade: Round 3
Proche projects as a slot WR in the NFL. Proche had a very productive season at SMU as their go to offensive weapon. His calling cards are hands and YAC ability. Proche has the best hands in the entire draft and can make difficult circus catches along with strong catches in traffic. He has some separation issues due to a lack of speed and quickness but if he's moved to the slot a lot of that should be accounted for.
https://gph.is/g/ZYl5LwD
https://gph.is/g/ajW55yG
Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama, 6'4/312
Grade: Top 10 (5th player overall)
I have Wills in a tier of his own among the OL this year and I think he's an elite OT prospect. Of the big 4 OTs, Wills is the most well rounded. His balance is phenomenal and he's always in control. His pass sets look great and he combines an immoveable anchor to counter power rushers with sufficient feet to meet speed. As a run blocker, he's incredibly powerful as a drive blocker and has the movement ability to block at the second level. His Auburn game is absolutely phenomenal.
Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia, 6'6/350
Grade: Round 2
If Mechi Becton weren't in this class, Wilson would be getting a lot more buzz. An absolute mountain at 6'6/350, Wilson carries that weight as well as one possibly can. If you're looking for a traditional RT, Wilson is your guy. He's a mauler in the run game and plays with a nasty demeanor, throwing around SEC defenders. He projects immediatly as a great run blocker in the NFL. In pass pro, he has an easy anchor and shouldn't struggle against power. While he'll struggle some mirroring speed rushers, his kickslide looks fluid and even without ideal feet, his it'll be a struggle for defenders to get around a 6'6/350lbs OT with 93rd percentile arm length.
Ben Bartch, OT, St. Johns, 6'5/309
Grade: Round 2/3
For a new OT convert playing at a tiny school, Bartch has one of the prettiest pass sets in this class. This demonstrates a willingness on his part to learn the position and a natural aptitude for pass blocking. He absolutely dominated awful competition at St. Johns and demonstrated great traits including light feet to mirror speed and a natural anchor to stop power. In the run game, Bartch bullied and dominated. He still doesn't look completely natural and can lose his knee bend at times but that's to be expected for such a green player. What really sold me was when he played great at the Senior Bowl against top competition.
Robert Hunt, IOL, Lousiana, 6'5/323
Grade: Round 2
Hunt is a college RT that projects inside in the NFL. His upside as a guard is huge as he is moves extremely well for the position. He demonstrates great balance and control with a great anchor to stop power. Moreover, he plays with a great nasty demeanor fitting for a guard. While he struggled some in space against speed, moving inside will ease those concerns.
Matt Hennessy, OC, Temple, 6'3/293
Grade: Round 2/3
At only 293lbs, Hennessy is limited to zone schemes. He has great movement ability to reach difficult blocks and has easy transitions. He's extremely quick off the snap and maintains great positioning to create holes for the RB. He's not a powerful drive blocker but won't be asked to do so in a zone scheme. He struggles some with power and lacks ideal strength but he is rarely beat as uses his pad level and hands to effectively anchor down when needed.
Tyre Phillips, IOL, Miss St, 6'5/331
Grade: Round 3
Philllips was a college RT who I project inside. He's an absolute unit at 331lbs with 88th percentile arm length and a massive, thick upper body. He has incredibly powerful, sticky hands and moved SEC defenders with ease. While his foot speed presented issues at tackle, he projects very well inside given his strong anchor.
Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina, 6'5/324
Grade: Top 10
Kinlaw is one of the most disruptive players in this class and possesses elite physical traits. Not only is he massive and long (92% length), but his burst off the ball is incredible. He simply outpowered and outphysicaled the best OL in the country in the SEC. He displayed good hand usage and rip moves and has the ability to stack and shed vs the run using his size and length. While his upside is sky high, there is some downside with Kinlaw given his inconsistency. He can play too high and struggle to anchor at times, getting washed and pushed around vs the run. I'll take the Chris Jones type upside and accept that risk.
https://gph.is/g/ZYl558p
https://gph.is/g/EGgbb5d
McTelvin Agim, DL, Arkansas, 6'3/309
Grade: Round 3/4
Agim is former 5 star high school recruit who just switched from DE to DL this past year. While his athletic profile is incomplete, he ran a sub 5.0 40 at the combine at 4.98. That athleticism showed on film as he has some of the best get-off in this class. Not only is his initial burst phenomenal, but he can convert that speed into power and bench press SEC OL into the backfield. He's pretty raw and lacks any kind of hand usage right now. Furthermore, he struggles holding up against the run and may have to start off as a pass rushing specialist. Nonetheless, he has room to grow given his youth at the position.
https://gph.is/g/ZOk55DP
https://gph.is/g/EGgbbbp
https://gph.is/g/E0rbj6y
Darrell Taylor, Edge, Tennessee, 6'4/267
Grade: Round 2 (top 50)
A discount K'Lavon Chaisson/Terrell Lewis. Taylor is a flash player with ideal Edge traits. Taylor has an awesome rocked up frame with little body fat. He shows great burst, flexibility to corner, and power to bull rush. Taylor possesses a phenomenal all-around skillset that projects well to the NFL as he can win with power or speed. His BYU game from this past year and his Kentucky game from 2018 were phenomenal. The issue with Taylor is that his flashes are very inconsistent and he lacks pass rushing moves. Still, he demonstrates elite Edge traits. As he was stuck on a poor team, he didn't receive the same publicity as other, similar type of players in this class (Chaisson and Lewis).
https://gph.is/g/amXNxVQ
https://gph.is/g/Z5YxwnG
https://gph.is/g/Zxe6GD7
https://gph.is/g/4bBb9VG
https://gph.is/g/Zd7WBzo
Zack Baun, LB/Edge, Wisconsin, 6'2/238
Grade: Round 2 (top 35 overall)
If I was coaching a game today and needed a sack, Baun would be my second choice in this class behind Chase Young. He's one of the few pass rushers in this class with some advanced pass rushing moves and can win in a variety of ways. He can win with a pure speed rush, flashes some speed to power with a long arm move, and has a nice spin move. Overall, he was consistently disruptive off the edge for Wisconsin. While he lacks size and natural strength, he use of leverage allows him to hold the edge vs the run. In the NFL, I think he projects as a SAM/Rush LB. He has some experience dropping back at Wisconsin and looked natural in space.
https://gph.is/g/46vbVv9
https://gph.is/g/Z8eP7Bd
https://gph.is/g/EqGQO5K
Willie Gay Jr, LB, Miss St, 6'1/243, 98% SPARQ
Grade: Round 2 (top 50)
Gay is my LB4 or 5 (depending on what you list Zack Baun as) and he has the biggest upside at the position in this draft outside of Isaiah Simmons. He had an elite combine as he tested in the 98 percentile of SPARQ. That athleticism was clearly apparent on film as in the few games he played he looked like a top 20 draft pick. He's all over the field with sideline to sideline range and awesome closing burst. He has ideal LB size and plays with awesome physicality. Moreover, he has the fluidity necessary to drop back in coverage. In short, he demonstrates the traits of an all-pro 3 down LB that can play in the box or in coverage. He can be late on his reads and his angles are off at times but those issues may be due to his lacks of playing time. Even if those issues are never fixed, if he plays how he did in college in the NFL he easily projects as an impactful NFL starting LB. The off-field issues are well known but apparently he impressed teams in interviews.
https://gph.is/g/4w8dlJ2
https://gph.is/g/4oL5dxJ
https://gph.is/g/ZYl5Bdw
https://gph.is/g/EGgbvdp
https://gph.is/g/a99bmYo
Evan Weaver, LB, Cal, 6'2/237, 26% SPARQ
Grade: Round 4
Weaver is a tough, physical, productive, and instinctive LB that is incredibly fun to watch. He's an incredibly reliable tackler that is always around the ball. He's all over the field making tackles with an A+ motor. At the very least, Weaver will be a great character guy and a plus vs the run on early downs. While he's not a great mover and has some issues changing directions, his awareness in zone is pretty good and I see some upside as a 3 down LB.
https://gph.is/g/aRW5AjJ
https://gph.is/g/Zk65Ony
https://gph.is/g/4zqYDxl
https://gph.is/g/Zd75qG3
CJ Henderson, CB, Florida, 6'1/204, 95% SPARQ
Grade: Top 10 (7th overall player)
He's been getting a little more hype the past few days as a top 10 pick but I've had Henderson in my top 10 since February. I really don't see a huge difference between Henderson and Okudah. He's the ideal man to man CB with elite mirroring ability. His feet are incredibly quick, he has easy fluidity in his hips, and his closing burst is fantastic. Additionally, Henderson has the ideal frame and physical profile at 6'1 with 4.39 speed and 60th percentile arm length. He has two main issues - tackling and ball production. For me, the ball production is more concerning but I prioritize sticky man coverage over ball production. In sum, Henderson is a rare prospect with elite traits at a valuable position.
https://gph.is/g/aRW5ApN
https://gph.is/g/46vby3d
https://gph.is/g/Zd75q3P
Reggie Robinson, CB, Tulsa, 6'1/205, 92%
Grade: Round 2/3
Robinson is an athletic, physical press man CB. He's an incredibly physical boundary CB that beats up WRs and uses the sideline to his advantage. He has quick feet and twitch to mirror in man coverage and the deep speed to stay with WRs downfield. His game vs Tylan Wallace really stands out.Moreover, he's great vs the run and comes up with physicality against the run and screens. The issues with Robinson are that he's overly physical to a fault and lacks the preferred fluidity in his hips.
https://gph.is/g/Zywoxjd
https://gph.is/g/EJYb1QB
https://gph.is/g/4L5bzPR
https://gph.is/g/EBmvkyK
https://gph.is/g/4oL5mlP
Antoine Winfield, S, Minnesota, 5'9/203
Grade: Round 1 (top 20 overall)
Winfield is a versatile, high IQ, physical safety prospect with excellent ball skills. He's incredibly physical and ball carriers feel him when he hits. His reactions are very quick and combined with his ball skills, his ball production at Minnesota should translate to the NFL. Against the run, blockers don't phase him and he's a reliable tackler as the last line of defense. He didn't look like an especially explosive or sudden athlete on film but he killed the combine with a 82% SPARQ score. His main issues are his size and injury history.
https://gph.is/g/ajW5zqG
https://gph.is/g/Z2mbq0W
https://gph.is/g/E0rbwyX
https://gph.is/g/ZPm5Ldp
https://gph.is/g/ZrdXbjw
https://gph.is/g/amX52lB
K'Von Wallace, S/NCB, Clemson, 5'11/206, 97% SPARQ
Grade: Round 1/2 (top 35 overall)
Wallace is my #3 ranked safety and I would be comfortable taking him late Round 1 or early Round 2. He projects as a slot CB, safety hybrid with elite athleticism. He's extremely twitched up on film with a phenomenal closing burst on the ball. He reacts decisively on his reads and consistently makes plays on the ball with very good ball skills. Moreover, he's an extremely physical player that plays with an attitude and tenacity.
https://gph.is/g/aN851zv
https://gph.is/g/ZOk5zAg
https://gph.is/g/aQO53KB
https://gph.is/g/aQO53q5
https://gph.is/g/4AjbX8G
Intriguing Late Day 3 Guys
JaMycal Hasty, RB, Baylor
Mike Warren, RB, Cincinatti
Benny LeMay, RB, Charlotte
Joe Reed, WR, Virginia
CJ O'Grady, TE, Arkansas
Cameron Clark, OT, Charlotte
Michael Onwenu, IOL, Michigan
Jonathan Garvin, Edge, Miami
DJ Wonnum, Edge, South Carolina
Broderick Washington, DL, Texas Tech
Bravvion Roy, DL, Baylor
Mykal Walker, LB, Fresno St
John Reid, NCB, Penn St
Julian Blackmon, S, Utah (not late day 3 but like him a lot)
Josh Metellus, S, Michigan

Chwf3rd's Final Top 50

Preface

I don't take into account medical or character concerns because I don't have enough information
I try not to take positional value into account, although it bleeds in a little with the QBs

1 Chase Young, Edge, Ohio St, 6'5/264
Value: Top 5
Best Edge prospect I've ever scouted (since 2015). Insane burst, advanced hand usage, bendy, etc. Can win with power or speed.
2 Joe Burrow, QB, LSU, 6'2/221
Value: Top 5
Great pocket mobility to buy extra time, reads field very well and moves through progressions, very accurate, ability to play out of rhythm, toughness to make throw in face of pressure. Lacks ideal arm talent.
3 Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama, 6'4/312
Grade: Top 5
I have Wills in a tier of his own among the OL this year and I think he's an elite OT prospect. Of the big 4 OTs, Wills is the most well rounded. His balance is phenomenal and he's always in control. His pass sets look great and he combines an immoveable anchor to counter power rushers with sufficient feet to meet speed. As a run blocker, he's incredibly powerful as a drive blocker and has the movement ability to block at the second level. His Auburn game is absolutely phenomenal.
4 Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson, 6'4/238, SPARQ: 98%
Value: Top 5
Ability to play OLB, slot CB, SS, and single high FS. Covers a ton of ground, reliable tackler, and legit ability as slot CB and deep safety. Teams should want him playing in space and chasing the ball. Lacks desired aggressiveness for a traditional LB.
5 Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio St, 6'1/205, SPARQ: 99%
Value: Top 10
Checks almost every box as a CB prospect. Smooth hips to mirror in man, intelligence and awareness to read QBs eyes, physicality to match bigger WRs, good ball skills, and physical in run game. Lacks the great recover speed giving him a smaller margin of error.
6 CJ Henderson, CB, Florida, 6'1/204, 95% SPARQ
Grade: Top 10
He's been getting a little more hype the past few days as a top 10 pick but I've had Henderson in my top 10 since February. I really don't see a huge difference between Henderson and Okudah. He's the ideal man to man CB with elite mirroring ability. His feet are incredibly quick, he has easy fluidity in his hips, and his closing burst is fantastic. Additionally, Henderson has the ideal frame and physical profile at 6'1 with 4.39 speed and 60th percentile arm length. He has two main issues - tackling and ball production. For me, the ball production is more concerning but I prioritize sticky man coverage over ball production. In sum, Henderson is a rare prospect with elite traits at a valuable position.
7 Tua Tag, QB, Alabama, 6/217
Value: Top 10
Great mobility and makes plays out of rhythm. Accurate at all levels of the field with good touch on deep balls. Lacks ideal arm talent.
8 Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina, 6'5/324
Grade: Top 10
Kinlaw is one of the most disruptive players in this class and possesses elite physical traits. Not only is he massive and long (92% length), but his burst off the ball is incredible. He simply outpowered and outphysicaled the best OL in the country in the SEC. He displayed good hand usage and rip moves and has the ability to stack and shed vs the run using his size and length. While his upside is sky high, there is some downside with Kinlaw given his inconsistency. He can play too high and struggle to anchor at times, getting washed and pushed around vs the run. I'll take the Chris Jones type upside and accept that risk.
9 Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn, 6'5/326, SPARQ: 33%
Value: Top 20
Difficult to block with a single blocker. Beats up guy in front of him with pure strength and power rather than pure burst. Dominant vs the run and bench presses OL. Doesnt project as a very productive pass rusher and questions about whether he can win with pure strength/power in the NFL.
10 Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama, 6'1/193, SPARQ: 22%
Value: Top 20
Elite route running traits and YAC ability. Can line up in any spot in the offense and create easy separation at every level. Lightening quick off the line and knows how to release off of press. Finesse player with a slight build and won't win many contested catches. Struggles at times with physicality.
11 D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia, 5'8/212, SPARQ: 60%
Value: Top 20
2018 film is much better than 2019. Alvin Kamara esque playing style with slippery play and insane lateral cuts. Very explosive and an excellent pass catcher. Quicker than fast and didn't make the same plays in 2019 that he did in 2018.
12 Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin, 5'10/226, SPARQ: 90%
Value: Top 20
Projects as an elite inside runner. Patient behind the line with great vision and then absolutely explodes through the crease. Great one-cut ability, power, and contact balance. Long speed to break a big run at any time. Not incredibly shifty or creative.
13 CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma, 6'1/198, SPARQ: 71%
Value: Top 20
Elite YAC ability and playmaking. Incredibly quick with the ball in his hands. Creates separation out of breaks with quickness. Fantastic hands and ability to make difficult catches. Not a burner and struggles to separate at times. Inexperienced route runner.
14 Cam Akers, RB, Florida St, 5'10/217, 54% SPARQ
Grade: Top 20
A former top recruit, Akers chose to go to Florida St at the wrong time. Akers demonstrates every trait I look for in a RB at a high level - burst, toughness/violence, contact balance, lateral agility, and receiving ability. He didn't have the stage of Swift, Dobbins, CEH, or Taylor and didn't have the same type of huge games given the awfulness of Florida St. However, he's the most well rounded of the top RBs this year and has the highest upside. The one issue I have with Akers is questionable vision at times but it's hard to know whether to attribute that to him or the OL.
15 Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa, 6'5/320
Value: Round 1
Great feet to mirror rushers. Good hand placement in run game and drives feet to generate movement. Loses balance too often and lets the DL control the engagement in his pass sets. Solid floor with high upside.
16 Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia, 6'5/315
Value: Round 1
Massive OT with awesome power to drive in run game. Great anchor and difficult to beat with power rush. Doesnt have light feet but ability to consistently recover and stop speed rushers. Off balance too often.
17 Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville, 6'7/365
Value: Round 1
Massive and bullies DL in run game. Routinely throws DL around and plays with mean demeanor. Projects immediately as a great run blocker. Feet are great for his size but still struggles to mirror in pass sets. Anchor not as great as expected either.
18 Antoine Winfield, S, Minnesota, 5'9/203
Grade: Round 1
Winfield is a versatile, high IQ, physical safety prospect with excellent ball skills. He's incredibly physical and ball carriers feel him when he hits. His reactions are very quick and combined with his ball skills, his ball production at Minnesota should translate to the NFL. Against the run, blockers don't phase him and he's a reliable tackler as the last line of defense. He didn't look like an especially explosive or sudden athlete on film but he killed the combine with a 82% SPARQ score. His main issues are his size and injury history.
19 Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona St, 5'11/205, 89% SPARQ
Grade: Round 1
Aiyuk can create easy separation all over the field in a variety of ways: deep with straight line speed, with physicality, or with quickness and burst out of breaks. While he's not necessary a burner, Aiyuk is one of the most twitched up and dynamic WRs in this draft. He has the rare ability to cut without losing much speed and maintaining that speed after the catch. He's not necessarily a jump ball catcher but he has flashed the ability to make contested catches. Even in games where his production wasn't there, he's consistently open play after play. He's sometimes portrayed as just a deep ball and YAC guy but he has the ability to be so much more than.
20 Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 5'11/206, 89% SPARQ
Grade: Round 1
Reagor immediately stands out when watching him as he looks like he's moving at a different speed than everyone else on the field. He's exceptionally twitched up and explosive and is among the easiest separators in the entire class. His game just looks effortless. Not only does he offer separation, YAC, and deep speed but he also shows the ability to make contested, difficult catches and displays excellent body control. He's a lot more well rounded to me than someone like Henry Ruggs or KJ Hamler. My biggest issue with Reagor is that he struggles to extend beyond his frame and thus doesn't give his QBs a huge target.
21 Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 6'1/227
Grade: Round 1
For clarity, my grade is not taking into account injury concerns as I don't have access to his medicals. Thus I wouldn't be surprised if he drops due to medical issues and I'm fine if that's the case. Nonetheless, Shenault has largely been forgotten about given the combination of WR depth this year and his injuries. He really shouldn't be as he is such a dynamic and exciting WR with huge upside. My comp for him is Sammy Watkins and AJ Brown. He has RB size with awesome physicality and YAC ability. He's a little raw in his routes and Colorado didn't do him a lot of favors as they just wanted to get the ball in his hands as much as possible and the easiest way to do so was on wildcat plays, reverses, and screens. Nonetheless, Shenault expresses excellent route running traits and creates easy separation with his burst and physicality. While I don't think he's a burner, he has sufficient speed to threaten and win deep. Combined with his contested catch ability and skills with the ball in his hands, Shenault is an incredibly exciting WR prospect.
22 Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 6'1/202, SPARQ: 82%
Value: Round 1
Slot WR. Twitched up with quickness to separate on intermediate level and speed to win deep. Great YAC and used on reverses and screens. Ability to adjust for difficult balls.
23 Jordan Love, QB, Utah St, 6'3/224
Grade: Round 1
I would take Love in the top 10 overall if I had a need at QB. Love easily has the best arm talent in this draft class, routinely making jaw dropping throws. He's not a Josh Allen type either with scattershot accuracy and only capable of throwing the fastball. His accuracy is precise at all levels and he can manipulate his velocity and throw with touch. Furthermore, Love is a very mobile QB with the ability to evade pressure, escape the pocket, and keep his eyes downfield. Some of his throws on the run are reminiscent of Patrick Mahommes or Carson Wentz. The issue with Love is simply decision making - locking into his first read or trusting his arm too much. However, you look at his 2018 season and the volume of those bad decisions is not there. In 2019, Love lost not only his coaching staff but his main offensive weapons as well. Considering his elite traits, I'll gladly bet that Love can return to his 2018 form.
24 JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio St, 5'9/209
Value: Round 1
B+ at everything but no elite, defining trait. Rocked up downhill runner with one-cut explosion. Good contact balance and runs through weak tackles. Doesn't create a lot on his own.
25 Clyde Edwards Helaire, RB, LSU, 5'7/207, SPARQ: 68%
Value: Round 1/2
Bowling ball shape with awesome physicality, toughness, and contact balance. Good burst and sufficient long speed. Very quick lateral cuts to make defenders miss and good vision. Receiving weapon either out of backfield or lined up out wide. Lacks preferred explosive qualities.
26 Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma, 6'2/241
Value: Round 1/2
Violent hitter with awesome burst and sideline to sideline range. Demonstrative playing style and always around the ball. Iffy in coverage and slow processor. May be best suited as a run and chase WLB.
27 Patrick Queen, LB, LSU, 6/229, SPARQ: 84%
Value: Round 1/2
Twitchy and explosive run and chase WLB. Sideline to sideline range and offers great coverage with ability to man up on RBs and TEs. Great closing burst and plays with violence. Some tackling issues, angles aren't great, and struggles in the box.
28 K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU, 6'3/254
Value: Round 1/2
Flash player with little pass rushing production. Flashes show elite pass rushing potential - great burst, bend, and speed to power. Lacks polish as pass rusher but represents a big question mark. However, floor is raised by his ability to play as a standup SAM LB with pass rushing ability.
29 Yetur Gross Matos, Edge, Penn St, 6'5/266
Value: Round 1/2
Perfect 43 DE build. Really good burst to win with speed rush and decent bull rush. Good hand usage and uses a rip move frequently. Offers good edge setting ability vs the run right now. Inconsistent and not as disruptive as desired on film.
30 AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson, 6'1/195, 86% SPARQ
Value: Round 1/2
Ideal combination of athleticism and size for press man CB. Incredibly quick feet with sticky man coverage and fluidity to stay in hip pocket. Easy mover who stays in phase. Willing and physical tackler in run game. Some issues downfield against physical WRs.
31 Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama, 5'11/188, SPARQ: 99%
Value: Round 1/2
Elite speed that should instantly change the way opposing defenses play. Instant acceleration and easy separation. Struggles with physicality, long strider causes less separation then desired, and lack of production.
32 Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson, 6'4/216
Value: Round 1/2
Huge catch radius with ability to extend himself for difficult catches. Fantastic hands and jump ball extraordinaire. Sufficient speed to threaten deep and great ball tracking. Advanced sideline footwork. Doesn't consistently separate and may struggle with physicality.
33 Grant Delpit, S, LSU, 6'2/213
Value: Round 1/2
Twitchy athlete with awesome burst and range as single high FS. Versatile and can line up all over the field. Capable of big hits but very unreliable tackler with inconsistent angles and poor form.
34 Josh Jones, OT, Houston, 6'5/319
Value: Round 1/2
Great feet to mirror speed and great at getting to second level and pulling. Very balanced in pass sets with a solid anchor. Burying guys in pass pro vs Oklahoma. More of a wall off run blocker than drive blocker.
35 K'Von Wallace, S/NCB, Clemson, 5'11/206, 97% SPARQ
Grade: Round 1/2
Wallace projects as a slot CB, safety hybrid with elite athleticism. He's extremely twitched up on film with a phenomenal closing burst on the ball. He reacts decisively on his reads and consistently makes plays on the ball with very good ball skills. Moreover, he's an extremely physical player that plays with an attitude and tenacity.
36 Ross Blacklock, DL, TCU, 6'3/290, SPARQ: 29%
Value: Round 1/2
Projects as 3Tech with awesome initial get off. Plays with great leverage to get under OL's pads. High motor and extremely active. Struggles at times to shed vs the run.
37 AJ Epenesa, Edge/DL, Iowa, 6'6/275, SPARQ: 15%
Value: Round 1/2
Power rusher with great bull rush and hand usage. Great hand usage with long arm move and hand swipes. Very stout vs the run. Can line up all over and very disruptive when lined up inside. Combine performance really hurt him and may need to put on weight on passing downs.
38 Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina, 6'3/212
Grade: Round 2
Edwards is being somewhat overshadowed due to injuries and WR depth. Like Shenault and Aiyuk, Edwards is another big, dynamic, explosive WR with phenomenal YAC ability, toughness, and physicality. Furthermore, Edwards has been incredibly productive at South Carolina starting with his true freshman season at only 17 years old. Edwards can line up all over the formation and turns into a RB with the ball in his hands. Not just a YAC guy, Edwards flashes fantastic hands and the ability to make incredible circus catches. While he doesn't create consistent separation, his quickness and burst is more than sufficient.
39 Zack Baun, LB/Edge, Wisconsin, 6'2/238
Grade: Round 2
If I was coaching a game today and needed a sack, Baun would be my second choice in this class behind Chase Young. He's one of the few pass rushers in this class with some advanced pass rushing moves and can win in a variety of ways. He can win with a pure speed rush, flashes some speed to power with a long arm move, and has a nice spin move. Overall, he was consistently disruptive off the edge for Wisconsin. While he lacks size and natural strength, he use of leverage allows him to hold the edge vs the run. In the NFL, I think he projects as a SAM/Rush LB. He has some experience dropping back at Wisconsin and looked natural in space.
40 Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU, 5'10/191, 47% SPARQ
Value: Round 2
Incredibly physical and feisty - great effort vs 6'6 Collin Johnson. Good closing burst and very quick feet. Great vs the run and phenomenal at the catch point. Not incredibly fluid and lacks desired physical traits.
41 Kristin Fulton, CB, LSU, 6/197, 69% SPARQ
Value: Round 2
Sticky man coverage and stays in WR's back pocket. Good closing burst off ball and plays with physicality. Inconsistent at catch point and not especially fluid or fast.
42 Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama, 6'1/205
Value: Round 2
Ideal combo of size and speed. Awesome ball skills as a former WR. Good closing burst in zone and sticky man coverage. Not especially physical and isn't comfortable with his back to the ball. May be best in zone scheme.
43 Noah Igbonohue, CB, Auburn, 5'10/198, 66% SPARQ
Value: Round 2
Twitched up player with quick feet and explosion. Physical player and willing tackler. Incredibly sticky in man coverage and allows little separation. Really struggles when the ball is in the air and lacks ball production.
44 Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise St, 6'6/311
Value: Round 2
Ideal frame and movement ability for NFL LT. Easy ability to meet speed rusher and awesome mirror ability. Adequate but not great anchor vs power - should suffice. Lacks aggression and more of a wall off run blocker than drive blocker.
45 Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia, 6'6/350
Grade: Round 2
If Mechi Becton weren't in this class, Wilson would be getting a lot more buzz. An absolute mountain at 6'6/350, Wilson carries that weight as well as one possibly can. If you're looking for a traditional RT, Wilson is your guy. He's a mauler in the run game and plays with a nasty demeanor, throwing around SEC defenders. He projects immediatly as a great run blocker in the NFL. In pass pro, he has an easy anchor and shouldn't struggle against power. While he'll struggle some mirroring speed rushers, his kickslide looks fluid and even without ideal feet, his it'll be a struggle for defenders to get around a 6'6/350lbs OT with 93rd percentile arm length.
46 Robert Hunt, IOL, Lousiana, 6'5/323
Grade: Round 2
Hunt is a college RT that projects inside in the NFL. His upside as a guard is huge as he is moves extremely well for the position. He demonstrates great balance and control with a great anchor to stop power. Moreover, he plays with a great nasty demeanor fitting for a guard. While he struggled some in space against speed, moving inside will ease those concerns.
47 Kyle Dugger, S/LB, Lenoir-Rhyne, 6'1/218, SPARQ: 99%
Value: Round 2
The most explosive player I've watched this year. Absolutely dominated lower competition. Explosive and powerful player that plays with violence. All over the field and filled up the stat sheet. The opposition looked like traffic cones that he would just run over. Older prospect (24) with some rawness. Hips look a little stiff and angles/reactions are a little off. May be best suited in a WLB role where he can run and chase.
48 Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama, 6/201, SPARQ: 20%
Value: Round 2
Very solid all around and versatile safety that should be a long term starter but lacks big upside. Comes downhill in a hurry with good closing burst. Used in the box and deep as single high FS and did well in each role. Questionable tackling at times and didn't make a lot of game changing plays.
49 Justin Madibuike, DL, Texas A&M, 6'3/293
Value: Round 2
Rocked up frame with little body fat. Great burst and uses power and leverage to destroy single blockers vs the run. Flexibility to finish at the QB. Inconsistent play and should be more disruptive.
50 KJ Hamler, WR, Penn St, 5'9/178
Value: Round 2
Ridiculously quick and stands out immediately. Effortless separation all over field with speed and quickness. Body catcher and struggles extending for the ball.
Players Just Outside
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Michael Pittman, WR, USC
Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
Austin Jackson, OT, USC
Terrell Lewis, Edge, Alabama
Darrell Taylor, Edge, Tennessee
Julian Okwara, Edge, Notre Dame
Raekwon Davis, DL, Alabama
Neville Gallimore, DL, Oklahoma
Willie Gay Jr, LB, Miss St
Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
Ashtyn Davis, S, Cal

My breakdown of the 2020-21 Gators football team

I honestly could see this team going 11-1 and winning the East. With that one loss coming to either LSU (depending on how good they’ll be post Joe Burrow) or Georgia, because for some reason they act like it’s the Super Bowl whenever they play Florida. The schedule is pretty easy with drawing Ole Miss from the West and getting LSU at home. Tennessee could be a trap game but I’m not to worried about them, they aren’t quite up to par with talent and coaching just yet. As I look at the depth chart for offense I get even more confident that this is the year we break through and win the East.
QB Kyle Trask Emory Jones Anthony Richardson (likely a redshirt)
RB Dameon Pierce Malik Davis Iverson Clement Lorenzo Lingard (not sure if he has to sit out a year or if he is immediately available)
WR Trevon Grimes Jacob Copeland Xzavier Henderson Dionte Marks, Trent Whittemore, and Ja’Markis Weston are all bigger question marks as they’ve had a limited role in the offense.
TE Kyle Pitts, possibly the biggest threat in not only the SEC, but all of college football. He runs routes like a WR, but can block and bully people like a tight end. I’m most excited to see how much better he’ll be this upcoming year after what he did last season. (54 catches 649 yards 5 TDS) Keon Zipperer Kemore Gamble Possibly the best TE group in the country
Offensive line will return 4 starters and will likely be more productive in run blocking. I for one think they did pretty well in pass blocking last season for the most part.
Now onto the defense. For the first time since the late 2000s, the defense will be a bigger question mark than the offense. Which as someone that had to struggle through both the Muschamp and Mac eras, is a relief to say.
D-line Jeremiah Moon Khris Bogle Mohamoud Diabate Brenton Cox Kyrie Campbell Zachary Carter Elijah Conliffe Marlon Dunlap Jr.
A deep core that should reek havoc in any opposing QB this season.
Linebackers James Houston IV Ventrell Miller Amari Burney The other Davis Reese Mohamoud Diabate (can slide from d-line to linebacker if needed)
A very thin linebacker core which is probably the biggest weakness to this gators defense.
DB Marco Wilson Kaiir Elam Trey Dean III Jaydon Hill C.J. McWilliams
Not the best group Florida has had in recent memory but still solid. It can’t be worse than the 2017 DB group that gave up midway through the season. My biggest question is how will Trey Dean play after so much hype and expectations going into last season. Hopefully he’ll have a bounce back year and be a solid piece to the corner group.
Safety Shawn Davis Brad Stewart Jr. Donovan Stiner Quincy Lebron
An extremely experienced group of safety’s that should be able to help in the backfield if the corners miss an assignment. Don’t be surprised if you see Stewart and Stiner be brought up to the corner position 10-12 times a game.
Overall, this team is solid. Definitely one of the elite teams in the country. Honestly the bigger question on defense is how conservative Grantham plays in big games. If you look back to the LSU and Georgia games last season, he played soft man and zone coverages all game when they should’ve been pressing the WRs against LSU and blitzing more often against a run heavy Georgia team. Had he stuck to his aggressive play style against LSU I genuinely think we come out of Death Valley with a win. If he had been more aggressive against Georgia and blitzed like he did against Auburn, FSU, and Miami. People criticize Mullen on his play calling in bigger games but I think he did a solid job in every game except the Georgia game. Against LSU he was recognizing matchups, going after them almost every play, stringing together back to back to back long methodical drives that gave the defense a chance to rest and kept LSUs defense tired and the offense off the field.
Now looking at the schedule, we have a good chance to go 11-1. I’m not gonna go as far as to say we could go 12-0 but if the cards fall that is a possibility.
Vs. Eastern Washington W Vs. Kentucky W Vs. South Alabama W At Tennessee (Trap game) W Vs. South Carolina (HC) W Vs. LSU W At Ole Miss W -Bye- Vs. Georgia (Jacksonville) L At Vanderbilt W Vs. Missouri W Vs. New Mexico St. W At FSU W
As much as it pains me putting that loss against Georgia, I just can’t pick us to win against them until well, we actually do it. It also sucks because it’s the only Gators game I can go to as a friend of mine gets tickets from their workplace and slides me one. Only other games I could see is losing is against LSU depending on how good they’ll be without Burrow and a few key pieces of both sides of the ball. At Tennessee is a super tricky one because I’m not sure how good they’ll be or if they’ll continue the momentum from last season to this one. I’ll go with the safe bet and say it’ll be a W.
So yeah that’s my breakdown on the 2020-21 Florida Gators football team. Lemme know how you think we’ll do this season.

4 Roud Mock (With some trades)

A big project here that has been underway for a bit, with some tweaking as needed.
I only made trades in the first round. Any trades you see are reflective of first round deals. There's usually a handful of them, so I tried to really push for trades, rather than a take a less realistic approach to it and be super conservative about. Additionally, I added a few 3rd round compensatory picks, based on the projections from over the cap.

FIRST ROUND

1.1 - Cincinnati Bengals - QB Joe Burrow (LSU). Don't need too much explanation here. Burrow is the best QB in this draft, perhaps even the best player, given how Chase Young was a bit quiet against Michigan & Clemson. Bringing him back to Ohio is too good.
1.2 - Washington Redskins - EDGE Chase Young (Ohio State). Another very easy pick, as Young has the potential to step into the NFL as a game changer from the first snap. Explosive, smart, and incredible hands, he has franchise changing potential.
1.3 - TRADE: Los Angeles Chargers - QB Tua Tagavailoa (Alabama). Miami could perhaps outbid the Chargers, but I don't see Miami wanting to give up too much of their stockpile for one player, especially given how many needs the Dolphins have. Thus, their #6 pick, a 3rd, and a 2021 1st round pick to Detroit for LAC to get a QB who could get them back to the playoffs immediately.
1.4 - New York Giants - OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia). This feels like such a good fit. Thomas is incredibly powerful, and fits the MO of the Giants well, building a powerful run game behind Saquon Barkley.
1.5 - Miami Dolphins - QB Justin Herbert (Oregon). According to reports, the Dolphins have done the most work on Herbert, and with the Chargers jumping up for Tua, the Dolphins choose to tap Herbert as their new starting QB, and hopefully fill out the rest of their needs with their massive stockpile of picks.
1.6 TRADE: Detroit Lions - DT Derrick Brown (Auburn). The Lions move back and still have their pick of Brown or Okudah, the two most popular names here. Ultimately, I went with Brown, as Brown can solve both their struggles stopping the run, and provide an interior pass rush.
1.7 Carolina Panthers - CB Jeff Okudah (Ohio State). The Panthers are probably hoping to get Brown, as his explosiveness is unreal, but Okudah could be an excellent piece to Matt Rhule's new defense, with his lockdown coverage ability.
1.8 TRADE: New York Jets - OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa). As the Cardinals debate OL vs. WR, the Jets ensure they land a top OT by offering them their 3rd round pick and a future 6th round pick. The Cardinals accept, and the Jets get Sam Darnold some much needed protection.
1.9 Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama). A great spot for the Jaguars, as Jeudy is arguably the best player left on the board, and also fills a big need for an offensive playmaker. Whether Nick Foles or Gardner Minshew starts for the Jags next season, Jeudy will make their lives easier.
1.10 Cleveland Browns - OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama). With Cleveland a sure bet to take a tackle, the Jets hopped them to get their choice. The Browns still take Wills, who has the athleticism to play either side, but either way is a big upgrade for Cleveland, as they attempt to rebuild their offensive line.
1.11 TRADE: Arizona Cardinals - WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma). With their decision now made for them, the Cardinals take perhaps the biggest playmaker on the board. Lamb is an exceptional fit for Kingsbury's passing attack, and he should give them a replacement for Larry Fitzgerald, whenever he chooses to retire.
1.12 Las Vegas Raiders - LB/S Isaiah Simmons (Clemson). With a big need to improve the speed of their LB spot, the Raiders take Simmons, which also fits nicely with Mayhew's affinity for Clemson players. Simmons' versatility is perhaps the best among any player in this draft.
1.13 TRADE: Philadelphia Eagles - CB Kristian Fulton (LSU). With teams like Dallas, Jacksonville, and Miami ahead of them, the Eagles act promptly to get the cornerback of their choosing. Sending their 2nd round pick and a 2021 day three pick to Indy, the Eagles land an elite cover corner in Fulton.
1.14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina). With the top 3 quarterbacks gone, the Bucs opt to do the smart thing, and take the disruptive DT from South Carolina. If they retain Barrett, this could be quite the deadly pass rush next season.
1.15 Denver Broncos - WR Henry Ruggs III (Alabama). The Broncos could use some speed to compliment Courtland Sutton at WR. Pairing the two of them should give second-year QB Drew Lock a promising group of pass catchers, as he attempts to bring the Broncos back to the playoffs.
1.16 Atlanta Falcons - EDGE A.J. Epenesa (Iowa). Almost too good to be true for the Falcons, as they get the second best pass rusher at 16 without having to move up. Thankfully the board falls well to them, and Epenesa gives them a powerful pass rushing presence to boost their DL.
1.17 Dallas Cowboys - S Grant Delpit (LSU). This pick seems almost too trendy, but that's because it's just a fantastic fit. Delpit's stock dropped a bit due to some poor tackling, but his ability to make plays all around the field is still unmatched at the safety position. A great fit in Dallas.
1.18 Miami Dolphins (via PIT) - OT Mekhi Becton (Louisville). The next tackle off the board comes to Miami, as the Dolphins need to rebuild this unit in a massive way. And what better way than to add a massive pass protector like Becton, who can keep Herbert clean for years to come.
1.19 Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI) - WR Tee Higgins. Wouldn't it be nice to grab a QB here Bears fans? Instead, the Raiders add a weapon on the outside in Higgins, whose elite body control allows him to come down with some insane catches. He gives the Raiders the outside weapon they're searching for.
1.20 Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama). The Jaguars could use a corner to play across from Bouye, and Diggs has elite size, and the ability to be a stud for them.
1.21 TRADE: Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State). I'd love to see the Colts target Arik Armstead in free agency to improve their pass rush, but if they don't, grabbing a high potential pass rusher like YGM would be an excellent move, especially after trading back for more picks.
1.22 Buffalo Bills - WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado). Shenault can make plays in so many different ways. He'd give OC Brian Daboll and QB Josh Allen a major boost with his play making.
1.23 New England Patriots - EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson (LSU). The Patriots would be best not using this on a tight end, as they are slow developers in their first seasons. Instead, go sign Hunter Henry, and then draft a pass rusher like Chaisson to help your defense continue to disrupt opposing offenses.
1.24 New Orleans Saints - LB Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma). The Saints could use some help in the middle of their defense, and Murray can make plays from sideline to sideline, a very well-rounded player.
1.25 Minnesota Vikings - CB C.J. Henderson (Florida). Death, taxes, Vikings drafting 1st round corners. Though this time, the need for one is very clear, given the potential exodus of corners they could have in free agency. Henderson has the ability to be a lockdown corner in Mike Zimmer's defense.
1.26 Miami Dolphins (via HOU) - RB D'Andre Swift (Georgia). Fans usually hate running backs in the first round, but the value of Swift here, compared to reaching on a pass rusher or guard here, is fantastic. He's a dynamic back, with play making ability both as a runner and as a pass catcher.
1.27 TRADE: Tennessee Titans - EDGE Curtis Weaver (Boise State) - The Titans hop ahead of the Ravens, landing the pass rushing OLB of their choice in Weaver. A strong pass rusher with plenty of moves, he and Harold Landry would form a scary good young duo in Tennessee.
1.28 Baltimore Ravens - WR Justin Jefferson (LSU) - Rather than reach for an edge rusher, the Ravens add Jefferson, whose electrifying season was a big part of why LSU are the national champions. He can help Lamar Jackson in a lot of ways, and is a pretty willing blocker in the run game.
1.29 TRADE: Seattle Seahawks - OT Lucas Niang (TCU) - Picking up a 2021 3rd round pick to swap with the Titans, the Seahawks use this pick to grab Niang, and give Russell Wilson some more protection, an upgrade over Ifedi in Seattle.
1.30 Green Bay Packers - WR Jalen Reagor (TCU) - Back to back Horned Frogs at the end of the first round, as the Packers add a big time weapon to their offense. Reagor's ability to take the top off of defenses would be a huge boost for Rodgers.
1.31 Kansas City Chiefs - RB Travis Etienne (Clemson) - Wanted to give the Chiefs some defensive help, but nothing stood out as a great fit. Instead, the Chiefs take the best player left on the board in Etienne, and continue to add elite weapons to an already dangerous offense.
1.32 TRADE: Carolina Panthers - QB Jordan Love (Utah State). The 49ers are low on picks in this draft, so a trade back to replenish their ammo would be great. And the Panthers land themselves Love, who can develop under Rhule and new Panthers OC Joe Brady, sending a 4th and a 7th round pick to the 49ers in return.

SECOND ROUND

2.1 Cincinnati Bengals - OT Josh Jones (Houston). Now that they have their franchise QB, they need to protect their franchise QB. With Jonah Williams added in last year, the Bengals add a long, athletic pass protector in Jones.
2.2 Indianapolis Colts (via WAS) - WR K.J. Hamler (Penn State). The Colts used their first pick to add defensive help, and now this pick turns into the speedy Hamler to help the offense.
2.3 Detroit Lions - CB A.J. Terrell (Clemson). After taking a DT in the first round, the Lions land a great fit in Terrell to give them some needed cornerback help.
2.4 New York Giants - EDGE Zack Baun (Wisconsin). Continuing to build the team from the inside out, the Giants add an excellent pass rusher in Baun, who has risen immensely since last season.
2.5 Los Angeles Chargers - OT Austin Jackson (USC). Like the Bengals, the Chargers need to find protection for their new signal caller, and this comes in the local product out of USC.
2.6 TRADE: San Francisco 49ers - CB Jeff Gladney (TCU). After moving out of the first round, the 49ers add extra picks and now select a cornerback to boost their outstanding defense.
2.7 Miami Dolphins - G Soloman Kindley (Georgia). Miami needs to take multiple offensive linemen in the first two days of the draft, and they so here with a strong interior guard in Kindley.
2.8 Arizona Cardinals - DT Raekwon Davis (Alabama). After adding CeeDee Lamb in the first, the Cardinals add a long, powerful DT to give a boost to their defense, rather than reach on OL here.
2.9 Cleveland Browns - S Xavier McKinney (Alabama). The Browns should have plenty of opportunities to fill their biggest needs with elite prospects, and they do exactly that by adding McKinney here.
2.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin). The theme here is continuing to add weapons to this offense, and Taylor can be a big boost either in tangent with Fournette, or as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
2.11 Chicago Bears (via LVR) - G/C Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin). Back to back Badgers, as the Bears add some much needed help on the OL in Biadasz, who can easily slide to guard alongside Daniels.
2.12 Indianapolis Colts - QB Jacob Eason (Washington). The Colts may have waited a bit, but they do add a QB with immense potential in the strong armed-Eason. A season behind Brissett could do him wonders.
2.13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn). The Bucs find themselves a pass protector, and PTW may have the highest ceiling out of all these guys due to his immense athleticism.
2.14 Denver Broncos - OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia). The Broncos too need to find some help at OT, and they get that with Wilson, another incredibly athletic SEC pass protector.
2.15 Atlanta Falcons - DT Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma). Didn't like a fit for any corners here, so the Falcons take Gallimore and provide a boost to their defensive line.
2.16 New York Jets - EDGE Terrell Lewis (Alabama). In need of pass rushers as well, the Jets take a chance on Lewis, who has immense potential, but has dealt with some injuries.
2.17 Pittsburgh Steelers - EDGE Julian Okwara (Notre Dame). The Steelers enter the draft, and they pick Notre Dame's top edge rusher, a crafty and surprisingly strong pass rusher.
2.18 Chicago Bears - TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame). The first tight end off the board is Kmet, who will provide Trubisky another weapon in hopes that he can get things figured out.
2.19 Dallas Cowboys - DT Justin Madibuike (Texas A&M). The Cowboys first two picks gives them two impact defenders to help straighten out their defense.
2.20 Los Angeles Rams - OT Trey Adams (Washington). If the Rams want another run at the Super Bowl, heck, even the playoffs, they need to upgrade their OL, and they do that with the massive product out of Washington.
2.21 TRADE: Indianapolis Colts - TE Hunter Bryant (Washington) Picking this up from the Eagles, the Colts reunite Bryant and Eason, giving them a natural replacement for Ebron as a pass catching TE.
2.22 Buffalo Bills - EDGE Jabari Zuniga (Florida). The Bills add a pass rusher here, as Zuniga's excellent play earns him a spot in the second round.
2.23 Atlanta Falcons (via NE) - CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah) - The Falcons add a corner with the pick they received in the Sanu trade. Johnson was a major asset for the tough Utah defense.
2.24 Miami Dolphins (via NO) - EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Florida). Just two picks behind a fellow Gator's pass rusher, Greenard fits Flores scheme quite well, and provides some pass rush help.
2.25 Houston Texans - RB Cam Akers (Florida State). Akers may be the most underrated back in this draft, as he managed to put up excellent footage in Tallahassee, despite playing behind that garbage OL.
2.26 Minnesota Vikings - T/G Calvin Throckmorten (Oregon). The Vikings run came to end as the 49ers obliterated their OL. They address that with the RT out of Oregon.
2.27 Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Darrell Taylor (Tennessee). The Seahawks will likely re-sign Jadeveon Clowney as a powerful SDE, but adding an edge rusher who gets after the QB a bit more would be great.
2.28 Baltimore Ravens - ILB Troy Dye (Oregon). Filling the void left by C.J. Mosley, Dye steps into to a Ravens defense, and could be a bit component for them going forward.
2.29 Tennessee Titans - RB J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State). This would change if the Titans re-sign Derrick Henry, however, with a very good offensive line, the Titans could likely continue rushing success without Henry.
2.30 Green Bay Packers - DT Ross Blacklock (TCU). Perhaps one of my favorite "sleepers" of the draft, Blacklock has a fantastic blend of size and quickness to him.
2.31 Kansas City Chiefs - CB Cameron Dantzler (Mississippi St.). A big, physical corner, Dantzler should step in and contribute for the Chiefs fairly quickly, given their needs at corner.
2.32 Seattle Seahawks - WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona St.). A big play waiting to happen every time the ball heads his direction, Aiyuk would give Russell Wilson an electric weapon.

Third Round

3.1 Cincinnati Bengals - C Nick Harris (Washington) 3.2 Washington Redskins - WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan) 3.3 Detroit Lions - EDGE Bradlee Anae (Utah) 3.4 TRADE: Arizona Cardinals - G John Simpson (Clemson) - from trade w/ NYJ (via NYG). 3.5 Carolina Panthers - DT Rashard Lawrence (LSU)
3.6 Miami Dolphins - G Shane Lemiuex (Oregon) 3.7 TRADE: Detroit Lions - WR Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) - from trade w/ LAC. 3.8 Arizona Cardinals - OT Yasir Durant (Missouri) 3.9 Jacksonville Jaguars - S Ashtyn Davis (California) 3.10 Cleveland Browns - G Ben Bredeson (Michigan)
3.11 Indianapolis Colts - DL Marlon Davidson (Auburn) 3.12 Tampa Bay Bucs - CB Deommodore Lenoir (Oregon) 3.13 Denver Broncos - CB Lamar Jackson (Nebraska) 3.14 Atlanta Falcons - WR Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) 3.15 New York Jets - S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Minnesota)
3.16 Las Vegas Raiders - CB/S Shyheim Carter (Alabama) 3.17 Las Vegas Raiders - LB Jacob Phillips (LSU) 3.18 Dallas Cowboys - WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota) 3.19 Denver Broncos (via PIT) - OT Robert Hunt (UL-Lafayette) 3.20 Los Angeles Rams - DT Leki Fotu (Utah)
3.21 Philadelphia Eagles - S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne) 3.22 Buffalo Bills - EDGE Anfernee Jennings (Alabama) 3.23 New England Patriots - QB Jake Fromm (Georgia) 3.24 New Orleans Saints - QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma) 3.25 Minnesota Vikings - DL Nick Coe (Auburn)
3.26 Cleveland Browns (via HOU) - LB Malik Harrison (Ohio State) 3.27 Las Vegas Raiders (via SEA) - WR Devin Duvernay (Texas) 3.28 Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Khalid Kareem (Notre Dame) 3.29 Tennessee Titans - DT Jordan Elliott (Missouri) 3.30 Green Bay Packers - LB Jordan Mack (Virginia)
3.31 Kansas City Chiefs - LB Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech) 3.32 Denver Broncos (via SF) - OT Scott Franz (Kansas State)
Compensatory Picks (as predicted by OverTheCap) 3.33 New England Patriots - OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) 3.34 New York Giants - WR Gabriel Davis (UCF) 3.35 New England Patriots - TE Adam Trautman (Dayton) 3.36 Seattle Seahawks - S Hamsah Nasirildeen (Florida State) 3.37 Houston Texans - EDGE Josh Uche (Michigan) 3.38 Pittsburgh Steelers - TE Colby Parkinson (Stanford) 3.39 Philadelphia Eagles - CB Thomas Graham (Oregon)

Fourth Round

4.1 Cincinnati Bengals - WR Antonio Gandy-Golden (Liberty) 4.2 Washington Redskins - CB Amik Robertson (Louisiana Tech) 4.3 Detroit Lions - RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) 4.4 New York Giants - CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State) 4.5 Houston Texans (via MIA) - C/G Netane Muti (Fresno State)
4.6 Los Angeles Chargers - C Matt Hennessy (Temple) 4.7 TRADE: San Francisco 49ers - C Jake Hanson (Oregon) 4.8 Arizona Cardinals - RB Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma St.) 4.9 Cleveland Browns - OT Jack Driscoll (Auburn) 4.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (Appalachian St.)
4.11 Tampa Bay Bucs - RB Eno Benjamin (Arizona St.) 4.12 Denver Broncos - DT Raequan Williams (Michigan St.) 4.13 Atlanta Falcons - CB Darnay Holmes (UCLA) 4.14 New York Jets - EDGE Kenny Willekes (Michigan St.) 4.15 Las Vegas Raiders - QB Anthony Gordon (Washington St.)
4.16 Indianapolis Colts - RB Kylin Hill (Mississippi St.) 4.17 Dallas Cowboys - WR Isaiah Hodgins (Oregon St.) 4.18 Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Ben Bartch (St. John's) 4.19 New England Patriots (via CHI) - LB Logan Wilson (Wyoming) 4.20 Los Angeles Rams - WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame)
4.21 Philadelphia Eagles - WR Denzel Mims (Baylor) 4.22 Buffalo Bills - WR Jauan Jennings (Tennessee) 4.23 Baltimore Ravens - RB A.J. Dillon (Boston College 4.24 New Orleans Saints - CB Bryce Hall (Virginia) 4.25 Houston Texans - TE Brycen Hopkins (Purdue)
4.26 Minnesota Vikings - WR Lynn Bowden (Kentucky) 4.27 Seattle Seahawks - G Logan Stenberg (Kentucky) 4.28 Baltimore Ravens - Cesar Ruiz (Michigan) 4.29 Pittsburgh Steelers (via TEN) - OT Justin Herron (Wake Forrest) 4.30 Green Bay Packers - OT Matt Peart (UCONN)
4.31 Kansas City Chiefs - CB Kindle Vildor (Georgia Southern) 4.32 Denver Broncos (via SF) - LB Cameron Brown (Penn State)
Anyways. That's my shot at one. Tell me why you hate it...

Rankings: Every D1 Team vs. Spread Since 2011 (Cumulative) - UVA, MSU, Nova on top

Since 2011 (as far back as I have data), how has each team done vs. the spread?
Specifically, if you bet $110 on every single game to beat the spread (which wins you $100 profit) since 2011, where would you be today? The chart below shows.
Interestingly, a lot of the best teams of the era were also the best vs. the spread. Coincidence? I'm not sure, honestly. Someone has to be best vs. the spread, and assuming it's a bell curve (and it is) someone will be 2+ standard deviations ahead. But there's no a priori reason it should be UVA and MSU instead of e.g. Washington State or St. Peter's.
(To pre-answer a question, sometimes you can win more money with fewer net wins vs. the spread because losses hurt you more than wins benefit you, and not every game gets a spread.)
Additional data / year-by-year cuts

	Team	Money Won	Lines Set	**Net Wins vs. Spread	% Games Won & Beat Spread	Points Above Spread
1	Virginia Cavaliers	$4430	275	55	55.27%	559
2	Michigan State Spartans	$3940	290	51	54.14%	440
3	Villanova Wildcats	$3610	290	48	54.48%	329
4	South Dakota State Jackrabbits	$3550	259	46	53.28%	593.5
5	Utah Utes	$3200	272	43	44.49%	310.5
6	Wichita State Shockers	$2340	276	35	52.54%	273
7	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	$2290	264	34	45.08%	131
8	Yale Bulldogs	$2070	201	29	47.26%	109.5
9	Gonzaga Bulldogs	$1570	281	28	52.67%	525
10	Creighton Blue Jays	$1480	277	27	50.54%	312
11	Buffalo Bulls	$1420	270	26	46.67%	447.5
12	Saint Josephs-Pennsylvania Hawks	$1410	206	23	46.12%	131.5
13	Houston Cougars	$1410	250	25	47.2%	381.5
14	Davidson College Wildcats	$1370	274	26	49.27%	134.5
15	Robert Morris Colonials	$1350	109	18	44.04%	-62.5
16	North Florida Ospreys	$1350	108	18	38.89%	48.5
17	Northwestern State Demons	$1330	74	16	29.73%	4
18	North Carolina Tar Heels	$1290	296	26	50%	289.5
19	Georgia Bulldogs	$1280	272	25	39.71%	203.5
20	Texas-Arlington Mavericks	$1260	239	23	43.1%	231
21	Hartford Hawks	$1250	87	16	42.53%	105.5
22	Oregon Ducks	$1240	285	25	49.82%	315
23	Seton Hall Pirates	$1170	275	24	43.64%	140
24	IUPU-Fort Wayne Mastadons	$1130	242	22	40.5%	213
25	New Mexico State Aggies	$1070	190	19	48.95%	352.5
26	Southeastern Louisiana Lions	$1070	80	14	32.5%	102
27	California-Irvine Anteaters	$1060	281	23	45.2%	185
28	William & Mary	$1060	212	20	41.98%	47
29	Furman Paladins	$1030	236	21	42.8%	187
30	Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix	$1030	262	22	41.98%	87.5
31	Kansas Jayhawks	$990	290	23	52.41%	66.5
32	Purdue Boilermakers	$980	274	22	45.99%	299
33	Vermont Catamounts	$940	112	14	48.21%	119
34	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	$920	264	21	35.98%	-21
35	San Diego State Aztecs	$910	271	21	49.08%	140
36	Wofford Terriers	$870	253	20	43.08%	298.5
37	Saint Francis-Pennsylvania Red Flash	$840	85	12	42.35%	-89.5
38	Mississippi Rebels	$820	281	21	40.57%	-18
39	Florida International Panthers	$770	232	18	34.91%	99.5
40	Nevada Wolf Pack	$760	277	20	45.13%	138
41	Colgate Red Raiders	$750	104	12	42.31%	146.5
42	Louisville Cardinals	$740	282	20	47.16%	383
43	Providence Friars	$740	279	20	44.44%	332.5
44	North Carolina Central Eagles	$740	108	12	40.74%	166
45	Gardner Webb Runnin Bulldogs	$730	106	12	42.45%	106.5
46	Norfolk State Spartans	$720	110	12	35.45%	69
47	Tennessee State Tigers	$660	233	17	33.48%	25.5
48	North Carolina State Wolfpack	$650	275	19	43.64%	114.5
49	Fresno State Bulldogs	$620	259	18	38.61%	295.5
50	Maryland Terrapins	$610	268	18	44.03%	84
51	Saint Bonaventure Bonnies	$600	265	18	46.04%	287
52	California Baptist	$590	51	8	45.1%	51.5
53	Northern Illinois Huskies	$540	258	17	32.17%	-17
54	Southern University A&M Jaguars	$540	105	10	34.29%	13.5
55	Army Black Knights	$520	107	10	42.06%	-37.5
56	South Dakota Coyotes	$480	246	16	38.62%	139
57	Merrimack Warriors	$480	30	6	56.67%	-8
58	California-Santa Barbara Gauchos	$480	247	16	41.7%	66.5
59	Iowa State Cyclones	$470	269	17	44.98%	403.5
60	Prairie View A&M	$470	97	9	36.08%	140.5
61	Manhattan Jaspers	$460	270	17	41.11%	76.5
62	Hofstra Pride	$440	256	16	40.23%	4.5
63	East Tennessee State Buccaneers	$420	193	13	45.08%	125
64	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	$420	236	15	30.08%	193
65	Lipscomb Bison	$410	108	9	37.04%	84.5
66	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	$380	244	15	45.9%	80
67	Georgia Southern Eagles	$370	248	15	38.71%	248
68	No.Carolina A&T	$340	59	6	35.59%	90.5
69	Murray State Racers	$340	252	15	46.43%	228.5
70	Fairleigh Dickinson-Metropolitan Knights	$320	83	7	36.14%	197
71	Seattle University Red Hawks	$310	129	9	37.21%	107
72	Iowa Hawkeyes	$280	268	15	45.9%	129
73	Florida A&M	$270	93	7	33.33%	64
74	Sam Houston State Bearkats	$270	95	7	41.05%	34.5
75	Texas Rio Grande Vaqueros	$250	80	6	32.5%	92
76	North Alabama	$240	57	5	28.07%	25.5
77	Winthrop Eagles	$230	102	7	38.24%	-52.5
78	Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans	$230	251	14	39.04%	9.5
79	San Francisco Dons	$210	258	14	39.92%	143
80	Campbell Fighting Camels	$200	86	6	37.21%	-18.5
81	California State-Bakersfield Roadrunners	$180	70	5	31.43%	48.5
82	Stetson Hatters	$170	93	6	23.66%	-21.5
83	Michigan Wolverines	$160	287	15	48.78%	318.5
84	Utah Valley Wolverines	$40	100	5	35%	22
85	Arizona Wildcats	$30	294	14	50.34%	246
86	Indiana Hoosiers	$10	276	13	45.65%	213.5
87	Dayton Flyers	$0	277	13	47.29%	212.5
88	Valparaiso Crusaders	$-40	267	12	44.94%	34.5
89	Central Florida Knights	$-40	244	11	38.93%	-70
90	Northern Kentucky Norse	$-80	164	7	42.68%	139
91	Delaware Blue Hens	$-80	254	11	37.01%	-55.5
92	Jackson State Tigers	$-100	86	3	26.74%	-17
93	Montana Grizzlies	$-100	263	11	44.11%	185.5
94	Long Island Brooklyn Blackbirds	$-110	107	4	40.19%	104
95	Tennessee Volunteers	$-110	282	12	42.2%	305
96	Bowling Green State Falcons	$-120	261	11	38.7%	-14
97	South Carolina-Upstate Spartans	$-150	94	3	28.72%	-66
98	Harvard Crimson	$-170	227	9	42.73%	112
99	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns	$-170	247	10	43.72%	14.5
100	Stony Brook Seawolves	$-200	108	3	40.74%	-21.5
101	New Hampshire Wildcats	$-260	75	1	24%	-67.5
102	Hampton University Pirates	$-260	96	2	39.58%	175.5
103	Kansas State Wildcats	$-280	270	10	42.59%	131
104	Duke Blue Devils	$-280	292	11	50.68%	87
105	American Eagles	$-290	102	2	39.22%	83.5
106	Princeton Tigers	$-310	212	7	43.87%	43
107	Abilene Christian Wildcats	$-310	62	0	40.32%	41
108	Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos	$-320	150	4	34.67%	-5.5
109	Evansville Aces	$-320	259	9	34.75%	50
110	Portland State Vikings	$-360	246	8	36.59%	-1
111	Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders	$-400	276	9	42.75%	288
112	New Mexico Lobos	$-400	274	9	45.99%	-17
113	Florida State Seminoles	$-400	276	9	46.38%	143.5
114	Coppin State Eagles	$-410	105	1	21.9%	-43
115	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	$-420	277	9	41.52%	-7.5
116	South Carolina State Bulldogs	$-430	88	0	20.45%	8
117	New Orleans Privateers	$-440	69	-1	31.88%	-18.5
118	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils	$-450	92	0	14.13%	-111
119	Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers	$-450	92	0	35.87%	-3.5
120	Samford Bulldogs	$-460	244	7	31.15%	107
121	Oklahoma Sooners	$-470	269	8	42.01%	178
122	Loyola-Chicago Ramblers	$-470	265	8	38.49%	123.5
123	Radford Highlanders	$-480	98	0	39.8%	78
124	Maine Black Bears	$-500	80	-1	13.75%	-41
125	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles	$-510	253	7	35.18%	92.5
126	Southern Methodist Mustangs	$-520	260	7	43.08%	13.5
127	Eastern Washington Eagles	$-530	258	7	40.31%	142.5
128	Baylor Bears	$-540	261	7	45.59%	216.5
129	Florida Gulf Coast Eagles	$-550	112	0	38.39%	60.5
130	Illinois-Chicago Flames	$-580	267	7	31.84%	-96.5
131	Towson Tigers	$-580	246	6	36.59%	38
132	Albany Great Danes	$-580	97	-1	31.96%	67
133	Saint Francis-New York Terriers	$-590	55	-3	32.73%	-93.5
134	Nicholls State Colonels	$-590	77	-2	31.17%	-99.5
135	Grambling State Tigers	$-590	58	-3	32.76%	36
136	Memphis Tigers	$-600	274	7	44.53%	135
137	North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs	$-610	101	-1	28.71%	-69
138	Butler Bulldogs	$-620	278	7	46.04%	55.5
139	Canisius Golden Griffins	$-640	263	6	38.4%	-108
140	Longwood Lancers	$-640	87	-2	31.03%	85.5
141	Air Force Falcons	$-650	240	5	30.83%	-98
142	Virginia Tech Hokies	$-650	260	6	36.92%	101
143	Akron Zips	$-660	262	6	42.37%	86.5
144	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	$-680	247	5	42.11%	49
145	McNeese State Cowboys	$-690	76	-3	30.26%	-49
146	South Alabama Jaguars	$-710	253	5	36.36%	-91
147	Incarnate Word Cardinals	$-710	58	-4	17.24%	-50.5
148	Eastern Michigan Eagles	$-720	251	5	39.44%	115.5
149	Mississippi State Bulldogs	$-730	257	5	36.96%	-66.5
150	Charleston Southern Buccaneers	$-750	89	-3	32.58%	48.5
151	Mercer Bears	$-750	195	2	36.92%	-94.5
152	Mount Saint Marys Mountaineers	$-770	70	-4	37.14%	9
153	Wyoming Cowboys	$-770	265	5	35.85%	-55.5
154	Auburn Tigers	$-780	265	5	40%	4.5
155	Lafayette College Leopards	$-790	98	-3	33.67%	-151.5
156	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	$-790	139	-1	40.29%	-25
157	Pennsylvania Quakers	$-800	227	3	37%	-27
158	Alabama A&M	$-840	86	-4	19.77%	-113
159	Saint Marys College-California Gaels	$-850	237	3	47.68%	17
160	Jacksonville State Gamecocks	$-860	239	3	31.8%	28
161	Belmont Bruins	$-880	243	3	46.09%	95
162	Central Arkansas Bears	$-890	74	-5	24.32%	-103
163	New Jersey Tech Highlanders	$-900	77	-5	28.57%	4.5
164	Saint Louis Billikens	$-910	269	4	40.52%	-86.5
165	Binghamton Bearcats	$-910	81	-5	22.22%	-17.5
166	Bethune Cookman Wildcats	$-920	81	-5	33.33%	-23
167	Clemson Tigers	$-940	256	3	39.84%	34
168	Houston Baptist Huskies	$-950	86	-5	18.6%	-22
169	Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks	$-960	216	1	35.65%	59.5
170	Presbyterian Blue Hose	$-960	88	-5	25%	-54.5
171	Pepperdine Waves	$-970	263	3	31.18%	-30
172	Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks	$-990	95	-5	14.74%	-185.5
173	Oregon State Beavers	$-990	267	3	36.7%	-52.5
174	Bucknell Bison	$-1020	121	-4	39.67%	107.5
175	Texas-El Paso Miners	$-1030	252	2	37.7%	-71
176	North Texas Mean Green Eagles	$-1040	236	1	33.05%	-187.5
177	Lamar Cardinals	$-1050	85	-6	35.29%	21.5
178	Navy Midshipmen	$-1050	107	-5	30.84%	-20.5
179	Pacific Tigers	$-1060	260	2	32.69%	-109
180	California-Davis Aggies	$-1060	259	2	35.91%	22
181	Xavier Musketeers	$-1090	287	3	45.99%	57.5
182	Utah State Aggies	$-1090	264	2	43.94%	151
183	Lehigh Mountain Hawks	$-1100	116	-5	37.93%	55
184	Missouri Tigers	$-1100	273	2	36.26%	31.5
185	Northern Colorado Bears	$-1120	250	1	36.4%	-134.5
186	Temple Owls	$-1130	275	2	41.82%	-66
187	Savannah State Tigers	$-1140	63	-8	25.4%	-219.5
188	Saint Peters Peacocks	$-1150	213	-1	34.27%	-45
189	Sacred Heart Pioneers	$-1160	86	-7	33.72%	-144
190	Toledo Rockets	$-1180	260	1	42.69%	168
191	Wisconsin Badgers	$-1190	286	2	46.85%	53.5
192	Grand Canyon Antelope	$-1190	93	-7	34.41%	8
193	Loyola-Marymount Lions	$-1210	140	-5	37.14%	-100.5
194	Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions	$-1230	99	-7	21.21%	-1.5
195	Virginia Commonwealth Rams	$-1250	278	1	46.04%	111.5
196	West Virginia Mountaineers	$-1260	280	1	43.21%	38
197	Brown Bears	$-1260	197	-3	30.46%	69
198	San Diego Toreros	$-1260	258	0	31.78%	104.5
199	Texas A&M CC	$-1260	85	-8	24.71%	21
200	Drake Bulldogs	$-1270	264	0	36.36%	79.5
201	Penn State Nittany Lions	$-1300	268	0	35.45%	38.5
202	Northern Iowa Panthers	$-1310	271	0	45.02%	-32.5
203	Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks	$-1310	75	-9	33.33%	-29.5
204	Wright State Raiders	$-1320	269	0	42.75%	108
205	Georgia State Panthers	$-1320	266	0	45.11%	130
206	Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles	$-1330	232	-2	32.76%	-228.5
207	Massachusetts Minutemen	$-1340	273	0	37.36%	-130.5
208	Morgan State Bears	$-1340	100	-8	29%	-57
209	Quinnipiac Bobcats	$-1350	193	-4	36.79%	-61
210	Texas A&M	$-1360	255	-1	38.82%	-103.5
211	Western Michigan Broncos	$-1380	262	-1	35.11%	-9
212	Stephen F. Austin State Lumberjacks	$-1380	89	-9	39.33%	-85
213	Saint Johns Red Storm	$-1380	241	-2	34.02%	-53.5
214	Colorado Buffaloes	$-1390	283	0	43.82%	72
215	Tennessee-Chattanooga Moccasins	$-1410	246	-2	34.96%	-180.5
216	North Carolina-Charlotte 49ers	$-1420	251	-2	33.07%	-259.5
217	Idaho Vandals	$-1450	231	-3	33.77%	-7
218	Western Carolina Catamounts	$-1460	256	-2	30.47%	-207
219	Alabama State Hornets	$-1480	89	-10	19.1%	-126.5
220	California-Riverside Highlanders	$-1480	243	-3	26.75%	-88.5
221	Idaho State Bengals	$-1480	240	-3	25%	-65.5
222	Oakland Golden Grizzlies	$-1480	262	-2	35.88%	-183
223	Chicago State Cougars	$-1490	91	-10	6.59%	-218
224	Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds	$-1500	268	-2	28.73%	-83.5
225	Jacksonville Dolphins	$-1500	92	-10	27.17%	51.5
226	Boston University Terriers	$-1510	115	-9	38.26%	-63
227	Kentucky Wildcats	$-1530	292	-1	47.6%	91.5
228	Miami-Florida Hurricanes	$-1530	270	-2	42.96%	123
229	Siena College Saints	$-1530	252	-3	35.71%	-32.5
230	Stanford Cardinal	$-1540	274	-2	41.97%	-49
231	Vanderbilt Commodores	$-1560	274	-2	36.13%	114.5
232	Holy Cross Crusaders	$-1560	104	-10	27.88%	-35.5
233	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	$-1570	255	-3	29.41%	-242.5
234	East Carolina Pirates	$-1580	238	-4	29.83%	-41
235	Eastern Kentucky Colonels	$-1580	238	-4	34.03%	-84.5
236	Delaware State Hornets	$-1590	88	-11	17.05%	-115.5
237	Louisiana State Tigers	$-1600	266	-3	40.23%	-100.5
238	Monmouth-New Jersey Hawks	$-1600	220	-5	38.64%	-59
239	Austin Peay State Governors	$-1620	246	-4	32.93%	-116
240	Boise State Broncos	$-1630	265	-3	40.38%	92.5
241	Citadel Bulldogs	$-1630	226	-5	19.47%	-217
242	North Dakota Fighting Hawks	$-1650	230	-5	33.91%	-121
243	Kent State Golden Flashes	$-1690	261	-4	40.61%	-28
244	Liberty University Flames	$-1690	107	-11	39.25%	-30
245	Bryant University Bulldogs	$-1700	88	-12	26.14%	-128.5
246	Miami-Ohio Redhawks	$-1700	263	-4	30.42%	-53.5
247	Southern Illinois Salukis	$-1710	266	-4	37.22%	-153.5
248	Appalachian State Mountaineers	$-1720	245	-5	29.39%	-109.5
249	Marshall Thundering Herd	$-1730	268	-4	37.31%	-224.5
250	Rhode Island Rams	$-1730	269	-4	38.66%	60
251	Nebraska Cornhuskers	$-1740	268	-4	35.07%	23
252	Alabama Crimson Tide	$-1750	273	-4	37%	21.5
253	Marquette Golden Eagles	$-1770	274	-4	41.97%	-16
254	Denver Pioneers	$-1780	253	-5	37.15%	-103
255	Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners	$-1790	214	-7	33.18%	70.5
256	Alcorn State Braves	$-1800	87	-13	20.69%	-164.5
257	High Point Panthers	$-1820	91	-13	29.67%	-136
258	Texas Southern Tigers	$-1840	119	-12	30.25%	-33
259	Central Michigan Chippewas	$-1840	254	-6	34.65%	-50
260	Arkansas Razorbacks	$-1860	269	-5	43.49%	-104
261	Rider Broncs	$-1870	254	-6	38.58%	-27.5
262	Syracuse Orange	$-1880	274	-5	45.26%	-139.5
263	Brigham Young Cougars	$-1880	278	-5	46.04%	118
264	Oklahoma State Cowboys	$-1940	268	-6	39.18%	93.5
265	North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans	$-1950	249	-7	37.75%	130
266	Texas Longhorns	$-1970	273	-6	36.26%	-9.5
267	Cleveland State Vikings	$-2030	267	-7	33.71%	-109
268	Ohio State Buckeyes	$-2030	283	-6	45.94%	20.5
269	Niagara Purple Eagles	$-2040	265	-7	30.94%	-131
270	Marist Red Foxes	$-2050	245	-8	27.35%	-19
271	South Carolina Gamecocks	$-2060	272	-7	38.6%	-93.5
272	Central Connecticut State Blue Devils	$-2070	79	-16	15.19%	-148.5
273	California State-Sacramento Hornets	$-2100	239	-9	31.38%	-83.5
274	Texas State Bobcats	$-2110	217	-10	35.94%	-44.5
275	Missouri State Bears	$-2120	237	-9	32.07%	-167
276	Southern California Trojans	$-2150	288	-7	37.85%	-174.5
277	Northwestern Wildcats	$-2160	270	-8	35.56%	-62
278	California State-Long Beach 49ers	$-2170	274	-8	34.67%	-16
279	California State-Northridge Matadors	$-2190	254	-9	25.98%	-247.5
280	Duquesne Dukes	$-2210	240	-10	32.08%	-133.5
281	Columbia Lions	$-2240	199	-12	27.64%	-79.5
282	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	$-2250	267	-9	40.07%	-117.5
283	Wagner Seahawks	$-2250	94	-17	35.11%	-144.5
284	UCLA Bruins	$-2290	292	-8	44.86%	9
285	Connecticut Huskies	$-2290	273	-9	38.83%	-94.5
286	Troy Trojans	$-2360	245	-11	29.8%	-47.5
287	Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers	$-2360	270	-10	33.33%	-188
288	Cornell Big Red	$-2360	207	-13	26.57%	-150
289	Morehead State Eagles	$-2370	253	-11	30.83%	-171.5
290	Cincinnati Bearcats	$-2390	272	-10	45.22%	84.5
291	Ohio Bobcats	$-2400	252	-11	40.87%	-110
292	Washington Huskies	$-2400	275	-10	38.91%	-70
293	UNLV Rebels	$-2450	289	-10	39.1%	-154.5
294	Richmond Spiders	$-2470	269	-11	40.15%	18
295	Northeastern Huskies	$-2470	267	-11	41.95%	15
296	Dartmouth College Big Green	$-2480	192	-15	24.48%	-12
297	Howard Bison	$-2500	103	-19	21.36%	-141
298	Florida Gators	$-2510	281	-11	41.64%	193
299	Boston College Eagles	$-2520	257	-12	26.85%	-112.5
300	Portland Pilots	$-2530	262	-12	26.34%	-235
301	Colorado State Rams	$-2530	262	-12	37.4%	142.5
302	Southeast Missouri State Redhawks	$-2540	240	-13	27.08%	44
303	Youngstown State Penguins	$-2580	250	-13	28.4%	-153
304	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Cougars	$-2620	231	-14	23.38%	-83
305	Minnesota Golden Gophers	$-2620	278	-12	38.49%	-295.5
306	Fairfield Stags	$-2650	260	-13	33.85%	-199.5
307	Georgetown Hoyas	$-2670	265	-13	38.11%	14
308	Indiana State Sycamores	$-2670	267	-13	37.83%	-159.5
309	North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks	$-2690	253	-14	32.02%	-162
310	Arkansas State Red Wolves	$-2700	249	-14	34.54%	-193
311	Virginia Military Keydets	$-2750	177	-18	21.47%	-339
312	Southern Utah Thunderbirds	$-2820	255	-15	24.71%	-195
313	Illinois State Redbirds	$-2820	274	-14	40.15%	54
314	Arizona State Sun Devils	$-2900	278	-15	39.93%	-28
315	Old Dominion Monarchs	$-2910	271	-15	39.85%	-11.5
316	Weber State Wildcats	$-2920	252	-16	40.48%	-69
317	Elon Phoenix	$-2920	252	-16	34.52%	-134
318	Drexel Dragons	$-2970	265	-16	32.83%	-120.5
319	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	$-2980	265	-16	30.19%	-100.5
320	Rice University Owls	$-3050	238	-18	25.21%	-38
321	Fordham Rams	$-3090	248	-18	25.4%	-177.5
322	South Florida Bulls	$-3100	267	-17	27.72%	-131
323	DePaul Blue Demons	$-3100	271	-17	28.78%	-167.5
324	Iona Gaels	$-3130	274	-17	41.97%	116
325	North Dakota State Bison	$-3140	254	-18	42.52%	-7.5
326	Alabama-Birmingham Blazers	$-3170	261	-18	38.7%	-117.5
327	Western Illinois Leathernecks	$-3180	220	-20	27.73%	-167
328	Washington State Cougars	$-3190	265	-18	31.7%	-191
329	Montana State Bobcats	$-3210	251	-19	30.68%	-213.5
330	Bradley Braves	$-3220	274	-18	31.02%	-266.5
331	Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	$-3260	258	-19	26.36%	-372
332	Texas Tech Red Raiders	$-3270	258	-19	33.33%	-57
333	Kennesaw State Owls	$-3280	91	-27	8.79%	-186
334	Santa Clara Broncos	$-3390	263	-20	31.94%	-207.5
335	Oral Roberts Golden Eagles	$-3550	209	-24	29.67%	-180
336	La Salle Explorers	$-3570	260	-22	35.38%	-194
337	James Madison Dukes	$-3580	260	-22	33.85%	-144.5
338	Eastern Illinois Panthers	$-3630	246	-23	33.33%	-214
339	Texas Christian Horned Frogs	$-3690	261	-23	31.8%	-44.5
340	Detroit-Mercy Titans	$-3700	266	-23	27.07%	-221.5
341	George Mason Patriots	$-3850	272	-24	35.29%	-55.5
342	Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks	$-3870	229	-26	29.26%	-239
343	Tulane Green Wave	$-3900	242	-26	27.69%	-223
344	California Golden Bears	$-4020	283	-25	36.4%	-326
345	Illinois Fighting Illini	$-4030	274	-26	35.04%	-193
346	Ball State Cardinals	$-4170	249	-28	32.13%	-143.5
347	California State-Fullerton Titans	$-4170	252	-28	32.14%	-66.5
348	Florida Atlantic Owls	$-4350	244	-30	27.87%	-151
349	San Jose State Spartans	$-4370	252	-30	16.67%	-384
350	College of Charleston Cougars	$-4790	266	-33	37.97%	-194.5
351	George Washington Colonials	$-5090	267	-36	34.46%	-79.5
352	Indiana-Purdue Jaguars	$-5140	254	-37	25.59%	-339
353	Pittsburgh Panthers	$-5190	272	-37	31.25%	-289.5
354	Cal Poly-Slo Mustangs	$-6250	249	-48	26.1%	-338

Auburn vs Georgia Matchup Report Opening Odds Analysis Georgia opened as a 4.5-point favorite when the odds for this showdown were originally released, but that line now sits at -7 in most spots (with an occasional -6.5 available). Picks, odds, and game forecast for Auburn at Georgia on Sat 10/03 11:30 PM GMT in Athens Auburn at Georgia: Odds, betting lines and picks Prediction. Georgia 24, Auburn 20. Money line (ML) PASS. While I’m picking Georgia (-286) to win – Auburn hasn’t won in Athens since 2005 – I’m not willing to bet the money line at that price. Against the spread (ATS) AUBURN (+7.5, -110) is the STRONGEST PLAY. Auburn's balanced attack puts up 36 ppg and 466 ypg and its last six games have gone Over. The last three meetings have seen Georgia win and cover and the game stay Under, but I like Auburn at home to score enough to help get this total Over. 5-2-1 IN LAST 8 CFB O/U PICKS +279. 2-1 IN LAST 3 UGA O/U PICKS +90 Georgia vs. Auburn odds, prediction, betting trends for 'SEC on CBS' game of the week No. 5 Georgia (8-1) travels to No. 13 Auburn (7-2) in the marquee SEC game of the week at Jordan-Hare Stadium ...

Georgia vs Auburn Picks and Odds (Bulldogs vs Tigers Predictions - Saturday, November 16)

Auburn vs Georgia 2/19/20 College Basketball Picks and Predictions. Georgia Bulldogs will host the Auburn Tigers on this Wednesday, February, 19, 2020 College Basketball game. Drew & Big Man bring you a live update on their college football picks and use their handicapping skills to preview the late games on Saturday NCAAF action. They will cover Clemson v Miami, Ohio ... Georgia Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Predictions, Picks, and Odds for their showdown on Saturday, November 16, from Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL. Direct from Las Vegas, the WagerTalk handicapping ... Daily sports betting advice, CBB Picks, NCAAB, Auburn Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs, Lets Rock 2020. The Crusher checks in with a play from the AuburnTigers vs Georgia Bulldogs NCAAM college basketball game in this 5-Star Minute.

Auburn at Georgia Picks, Odds & Betting Lines - Sat 10/03 ...

Week 5 Opening Lines

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (July 19, 2020)

Introduction

Polls

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Polling Models

Prediction Markets

bliponaship - Week 5 Picks

Week 4 Picks Recap

Week 5 Picks

Hail Mary Parlay

Last call on college football bets

NCAA Football Week 5 - Analysis, Predictions and Odds

College Football Bets Thread

The following are my bets, but feel free to comment looking for other college football Bets.

The MAC’s Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis

Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis

Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis courtesy of RedAlertWagers.com

The MAC’s Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis

MAC's College Football Report Odds + Plays - Week 4

MAC's College Football Report + Plays - Week 4

9/22 - Top Rated Plays + Special Release Betting Action & Game Breakdowns

MAC's College Football Report + Plays - Week 4

Big Ten starts on Oct. 24 (News)

2021 College Football National Championship Odds

MAC's NCAAF Week 4 Special Release Moves

09/26 - 03:30 - Major Move NCAAF Pick

09/26 - MAC's NCAAF Parlay

Want Top Rated Stock Plays go over to The Stock Report on Reddit - MAC's Stock Market Tips

Chwf3rd'd My Guys

Chwf3rd's Final Top 50

My breakdown of the 2020-21 Gators football team

4 Roud Mock (With some trades)

FIRST ROUND

SECOND ROUND

Third Round

Fourth Round

Rankings: Every D1 Team vs. Spread Since 2011 (Cumulative) - UVA, MSU, Nova on top

Georgia vs Auburn Picks and Odds (Bulldogs vs Tigers Predictions - Saturday, November 16)