Hi people, long time lurker here.
Over the course of last year I developed a betting system with a mix between poisson distribution probability (hence my username spelled backwards) and some models I made for myself.
I am in the process of adding machine learning (2 or 3 months to go) and a banking management system (using probably Kelly criterion and expected value). But while that isn't ready I am here to show you my work.
So, the coming predictions will have a success rate of:

Full Game

1X -> 91%
1 -> 76%
2X -> 81%
2 -> 72.6%
X -> 27.6%
Algo25 -> 60%
Algo15 -> 85%
AlgoBTTS_Yes -> 55%
AlgoBTTS_No -> 52%
 

First half

1X_1st -> 90%
1_1st -> 60%
2X_1st -> 80%
X_1st -> 44%
Algo15_1st -> 45%
Algo05_1st -> 71%
AlgoBTTS_Yes_1st -> 19%
AlgoBTTS_No_1st -> 82%
 
After running my algorithm the output until day 8 of this month for the main leagues is:
 

Full Game

• Celtic vs St Johnstone -> 1 correct
• Ath Madrid vs Eibar -> 1 correct
• Paris SG vs Bastia -> 1 correct
• Sp Lisbon vs Belenenses -> 1 incorrect
• Guimaraes vs Arouca -> 1 correct
  
• Bayern Munich vs Darmstadt -> 1X correct
  
• Ath Madrid vs Eibar -> 1X correct
  
• Barcelona vs Villarreal -> 1X correct
  
• Paris SG vs Bastia -> 1X correct
  
• Ajax vs Go Ahead Eagles -> 1X correct
  
• Anderlecht vs Waregem -> 1X correct
  
• Sp Lisbon vs Belenenses -> 1X incorrect
  
• Guimaraes vs Arouca -> 1X correct
  
• Granada vs Real Madrid -> 2 correct
  
• Nancy vs Monaco -> 2 correct
  
• Hearts vs Aberdeen -> 2X correct
  

 

• Over1.5 goals

 

• Valencia vs Osasuna correct
• Granada vs Real Madrid correct
• Anderlecht vs Waregem correct
• Guimaraes vs Arouca incorrect

 

• Both teams to Score

 

• Liverpool vs Southampton incorrect
• Bayern Munich vs Darmstadt incorrect
• M'gladbach vs Augsburg correct
• Valencia vs Osasuna correct
• Malaga vs Celta incorrect
• Lille vs Metz incorrect
• Lyon vs Nantes correct
• Zwolle vs Heerenveen correct
• Anderlecht vs Waregem incorrect

1st Half

• Celtic vs St Johnstone -> 1 incorrect
• Sp Lisbon vs Belenenses -> 1 incorrect
  
• Chelsea vs Middlesbrough -> 1X correct
  
• Bristol City vs Birmingham -> 1X incorrect
  
• Norwich vs QPR -> 1X correct
  
• Brentford vs Blackburn -> 1X
  
• Bayern Munich vs Darmstadt -> 1X
  
• Ath Madrid vs Eibar -> 1X
  
• Barcelona vs Villarreal -> 1X
  
• Ajax vs Go Ahead Eagles -> 1X
  
• Anderlecht vs Waregem -> 1X
  
• Guimaraes vs Arouca -> 1X
  
• Genclerbirligi vs Adanaspor -> 1X
  
• Arsenal vs Man United -> 2X
  
• Granada vs Real Madrid -> 2X
  

 

• Over 0.5 goals

 

• Liverpool vs Southampton
• Chelsea vs Middlesbrough
• Norwich vs QPR
• Ajax vs Go Ahead Eagles
• Excelsior vs Feyenoord
• Heracles vs Den Haag
• Zwolle vs Heerenveen
• Anderlecht vs Waregem
• Sp Lisbon vs Belenenses
• Guimaraes vs Arouca
• Genclerbirligi vs Adanaspor
• Akhisar Belediyespor vs Gaziantepspor

 
If you have any kind of doubt, question, suggestion or statement to make, go ahead.
EDIT: I will make sure to check the results on day 8 to see how much I got right and wrong.
EDIT2: I went trough some of the games and saw if I had lost or won. I can clearly see that FT stats are more or less good with the problem being BTTS_Yes, which was expected taking in consideration the backtesting stats. First half needs to be seriously improved.
My next work will be to get the odds some way and starting to do Bank management with kelly crit. Also will have to change the binary output of my models to probabilities to get as input into kelly and also to prepare for the the machine learning entries.

INNOCENT POSSUM'S PICKS

;)
If you would like to donate any winnings to show your appreciation for what I do, my Paypal is: [email protected].
Please do not feel forced to send me anything, only do so if you want to.
In case you were unaware, I have had my own subreddit for a while now, so feel free to visit /innocentpossumspicks if that is something that may interest you!
Here are hopefully 6 more winning picks!

MY PICKS:

FIXTURE	BTTS ODDS	1X2 & BTTS ODDS
BIRMINGHAM Vs. Rotherham	@1.80	@3.40 (1)
QPR Vs. BRISTOL CITY	@1.80	@5.50 (2)
BURY Vs. Wimbledon	@1.70	@4.75 (1)
CHESTERFIELD Vs. FLEETWOOD	@1.70	@4.33 (X)
Gillingham Vs. WALSALL	@1.66	@5.50 (2)
PORT VALE Vs. CHARLTON	@1.75	@4.33 (X)
TOTAL:	@27.31	@9173.64

BIRMINGHAM - ROTHERHAM:

• Birmingham are 6th; Rotherham are 24th.
• Birmingham have scored 15, conceded 12; Rotherham have scored 12 Conceded 28.
• Birmingham have had 7/12 games end BTTS; Rotherham have had 7/12 games end BTTS.
• Birmingham have had 4/5 of their last games end BTTS; Rotherham have had 4/5 of their last games end BTTS.

QPR - BRISTOL CITY:

• QPR are 14th; Bristol are 15th.
• QPR have scored 15, conceded 18; Bristol have scored 20, conceded 14.
• QPR have had 7/12 games end BTTS; Bristol have had 8/12 games end BTTS.
• QPR have had 5/5 of their last games end BTTS; Bristol have had 3/5 of their last games end BTTS.

BURY - WIMBLEDON:

• Bury are 6th; Wimbledon are 12th.
• Bury have scored 21, conceded 18; Wimbledon have scored 18, conceded 17.
• Bury have had 9/13 games end BTTS; Wimbledon have had 10/13 games end BTTS.
• Bury have had 4/5 of their last games end BTTS; Wimbledon have had 3/5 of their last games end BTTS.

CHESTERFIELD - FLEETWOOD:

• Chesterfield are 21st; Fleetwood are 13th.
• Chesterfield have scored 16, conceded 17; Fleetwood have scored 18, conceded 16.
• Chesterfield have had 8/12 games end BTTS; Fleetwood have had 8/12 games end BTTS.
• Chesterfield have had 3/5 of their last games end BTTS; Fleetwood have had 4/5 of their last games end BTTS.

GILLINGHAM - WALSALL:

• Gillingham are 18th, Walsall are 14th.
• Gillingham have scored 19, conceded 25; Walsall have scored 16, conceded 19.
• Gillingham have had 11/13 games end BTTS; Walsall have had 8/13 games end BTTS.
• Gillingham have had 4/5 of their last games end BTTS; Walsall have had 4/5 of their last games end BTTS.

PORT VALE - CHARLTON:

• Port Vale are 7th, Charlton are 15th.
• Port Vale have scored 16, conceded 18; Charlton have scored 15, conceded 12.
• Port Vale have had 6/13 games end BTTS; Charlton have had 7/12 games end BTTS.
• Port Vale have had 2/5 of their last games end BTTS; Charlton have had 2/5 of their last games end BTTS.
• It's worth noting the stats for this are fairly 'meh' but Port Vale are strong at Home but not playing too great and Charlton are capable of scoring on the road. It's a bit more 'Gut Feeling' than the other, but QPR-Reading was the same on Saturday and that flew in first after 25 minutes. Make of it, what you will. :)

MY BETS:

• £20.00 on 6-Fold @27.31 Returns £546.21
• £5.00* total on 1X2 BTTS Returns ~£70-£700-£5,500
  • (*£5.00 split: 15x 24p 4-folds, 6x 21p 5-folds and 14p 6-fold)

THANKS FOR READING!

PLEASE DO NOT BET ANY MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!

LET ME KNOW IF YOU ARE FOLLOWING ANY OF THE PICKS/BETS!

FEEL FREE TO ASK ANY QUESTIONS! I WILL BE HAPPY TO ANSWER THEM!

HAVE FUN, THAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT THING!

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Championship Match 18
Fulham vs Preston North End
^{Saturday 28th November - 3:00pm - Craven Cottage}

Build up

A disappointing loss against a close (at least in geographical terms) rival. Hopefully the long trip down to Craven Cottage won't get in the way as the boys hope to bounce back against an uninspiring Fulham. Need to get back some momentum.

Previews

PNE Official

Championship Position

	Club	Pld	Gd	Pts
16	QPR	17	-3	20
15	Leeds	17	-4	19
17	Preston	17	-3	17	-
18	Notts F.	17	-5	17	-
19	Bristol C.	17	-9	16

Team Form

Team	Last 6	Last Match	Comp.
Preston	LLLWDL	PNE 1 - 2 Blackburn
Fulham	DWWLLD	MK Dons 1 - 1 Fulham

Last Encounters

Date	Venue	Result
-	-	-

All Results V Fulham since 2013

Wins	Draws	Losses
0	0	0

Team Absentees

Team	Player	Reason	ETA
Preston	Beckford	Knee	'Months'
Preston	Humphrey	Shin	'Long Term'
Preston	Clarke	Shoulder	May Play
Preston	Wright	Suspended	Red Card
Fulham	Lonergan (GK)	Hamstring	Unknown
Fulham	Bettinelli (GK)	Unknown	Unknown
Fulham	Kacaniklic	Unknown	May Play

Coverage

Live commentary over at PNE Player
There may be some streams for this one. Keep an eye out on First Row Sports etc.

Tickets

The initial allocation of 1,661 tickets was sold, with an additional 500 taking the Club’s allocation in the Putney End at Craven Cottage to 2,161, of which approximately 300 still remain.

Adult: £25

Match

Teamsheets

Subs	Fulham		PNE	Subs
03 Garbutt	12 Lewis		01 Pickford	08 Kilkenny
04 Hutchinson	07 Fredericks		02 Vermijl	09 Keane
09 Smith	05 Stearman		05 Clarke	19 Welsh
15 Voser	13 Ream		23 Huntington	20 Davies
16 Woodrow	40 Husband		103 Cunningham	24 May
18 Pringle			10 Cairney	25 Hugill
42 Rodak	23 O'Hara		12 Gallagher	43 Kirkland
	08 Parker		16 Browne
	32 Kavanagh		32 Reach
	44 McCormack		14 Garner
	25 Dembele		13 Doyle

Final Score

Fulham 1-1 Preston North End
Kickoff
GARNER 11' 0-1
Half Time (0-1)
Kavanagh off for Hutchinson 45'
Husband 57'
Hutchinson 58'
GALLAGHER 61'
BROWNE 68'
GALLAGHER off for WELSH 73'
DOYLE off for KEANE 73'
Parker off for Smith 73'
McCormack 76' 1-1
Husband off for Pringle 88'
Reach off for May 90'
5 Added Mins
Full Time (1-1)
Attendance of 17,362 with 1,933 PNE fans
MOTM - Garner

Post-Match

Stats

Fulham		PNE
57%	Possession	43%
11 (3)	Shots	17 (3)
3	Corners	6
9	Fouls	12
2	Yellow Cards	2
0	Red Cards	0

Championship Position

	Club	Pld	Gd	Pts
16	Notts F.	18	-3	20
17	Leeds	18	-5	19
18	Preston	18	-3	18
19	MK Dons	18	-9	16
20	Bristol C.	18	-12	16

Verdict

A shame about missing out on the two points but I'm sure most of us would have taken a point before the game. Onto Burnley and hopefully 3 points at the local derby!

Simon Says

"We are very proud of the performance today, we have come to face a strong Fulham team, with some exceptional players and put a really good performance."
Full Comments

Reaction

PNE Official
BBC
Highlights
Garner Comments

Sidebar Pic

New for 15/16 season, the sidebar pic will be chosen by you (hopefully) at the end of each match. Check the PNE twitter for some inspiration. Submit them HERE

Next Match

Burnley vs Preston North End
^{Championship Match 19 - Saturday 5th December - 3:00pm - Turf Moor}

Championship Match 17
Preston North End vs Blackburn
^{Saturday 21st November - 3:00pm - Deepdale}

Build up

The last international break till march is finally over and we can get back to it! It's been nearly 14 years since the last competitive PNE/Blackburn derby but it's sure to be a corker as over 17,000 tickets have already been sold for the game on Saturday. Can PNE continue their run of points gained and clean sheets kept against a Blackburn side who are performing at a similar level but have just gone through a change in manager in the last week?

Previews

PNE Official

Championship Position

	Club	Pld	Gd	Pts
15	Leeds	16	-3	19
16	Blackburn	16	0	17	-
17	Preston	16	-2	17	-
18	Notts F.	16	-4	17
19	Huddersfield	16	-7	15	-

Team Form

Team	Last 6	Last Match	Comp.
Preston	DLLLWD	QPR 0 - 0 PNE
Blackburn	LDLWDD	Blackburn 1 - 1 Brentford

Last Encounters

Date	Venue	Result
-	-	-

All Results V Blackburn since 2013

Wins	Draws	Losses
0	0	0

Team Absentees

Team	Player	Reason	ETA
Preston	Beckford	Knee	'Months'
Preston	Humphrey	Shin	'Long Term'
Preston	Clarke	Shoulder	May Play
Preston	Cunningham	Thigh	May Play
Blackburn	Guthrie	Calf	May Play

Coverage

Live commentary over at PNE Player
There may be some streams for this one. Keep an eye out on First Row Sports etc.

Tickets

Over 17,000 tickets already sold with all corporate areas and the Bill Shankly Kop are all sold out. Get em while you can! More details here

Adult: £24-£30

Buy here or buy at the stadium.

Match

Teamsheets

Subs	Preston		Blackburn	Subs
02 Vermijl	01 Pickford		30 Steele	03 Spurr
05 Clarke	15 Woods		02 Henley	09 Kilgallon
09 Keane	06 Wright		22 Duffy	07 Delfouneso
19 Welsh	23 Huntington		05 Hanley	08 Koita
24 May	03 Cunningham		14 Olsson	19 Taylor
25 Hugill	32 Reach		10 Marshall	23 Guthrie
43 Kirkland	16 Browne		29 Evans	33 Raya
	12 Gallagher		21 Akpan
	11 Johnson		32 Conway
	13 Doyle		16 Lawrence
	14 Garner		11 Rhodes

Final Score

Preston North End 1-2 Blackburn
Good attendance at Deepdale
The teams come together in memory of the Paris attacks
Kickoff
PICKFORD 30' 0-1
Lawrence 31'
Lawrence off for Taylor 32'
Evans 36'
Half Time (0-1)
Great attendance of 19,852
Penalty to Blackburn 50'
HUNTINGTON 50'
Rhodes PEN 51' 0-2
GARNER 59'
JOHNSON off for KEANE 63'
DOYLE off for MAY 63'
GARNER 66' 1-2
Conway off for Guthrie 73'
Rhodes off for Koita 81'
WRIGHT 83'
Koita 85'
WRIGHT 89'
5 Added Mins
Full Time (1-2)
MOTM - Browne

Post-Match

Stats

PNE		Blackburn
59%	Possession	41%
9 (2)	Shots	11 (3)
4	Corners	2
13	Fouls	16
3	Yellow Cards	2
1	Red Cards	0

Championship Position

	Club	Pld	Gd	Pts
16	QPR	17	-3	20
15	Leeds	17	-4	19
17	Preston	17	-3	17	-
18	Notts F.	17	-5	17	-
19	Bristol C.	17	-9	16

Verdict

Disappointing! Shame to end a good run of games against our newest and now most fierce rivals(!) It'll be a tough match to bounce back at the weekend at Craven Cottage but Fulham havn't been setting the world alight. Will need to review the highlights to see if it was a goal by Akpan (funny story, he was in my english class at school) or an own goal (like everyone else says), but defence is quickly becoming a problem with a now suspended Bailey-Wright and a just coming back from fitness Clarke, it's somewhere we need to reinforce.

Simon Says

"When you look back over the course of the game, the least we deserved would have been a point. The first half was a typical derby match where you are fighting to get the ball; a lot of tackles and balls flying around."
Full Comments

Reaction

PNE Official
BBC
Highlights
Vermijl Comments

Sidebar Pic

New for 15/16 season, the sidebar pic will be chosen by you (hopefully) at the end of each match. Check the PNE twitter for some inspiration. Submit them HERE

Next Match

Fulham vs Preston North End
^{Championship Match 18 - Saturday 28th November - 3:00pm - Craven Cottage}