I'm back again this week with each team's implied point total based on Vegas oveunder lines. I typically use these to decide between players on tough start/decision decisions by leaning towards players whose teams are projected to score more points. Remember that Vegas sets its lines based on the bets it receives and not necessarily expert football opinion, so these implied point totals represent the betting public's perception of each team this week. There is value to be had if you remember this! Interesting note: in Week 1 half of the league hit the OVER, while in Week 2 nearly two-thirds of the league hit the OVER. Are offenses ramping up while defenses take more time to mesh? Who knows! Previous weeks can be found here: Week 1 Week 2 Anyways, here is Week 3:
Well, we lost, which means we are back to being bad. Jokes aside, the win last weekend was fun, but as I think today showed, it was merely a mirage. The evidence leans toward Matt Patricia not being a good coach, and I think it will be best that he and Detroit go in separate ways at the seasons end. And to be clear, Patricia still has a chance to turn the season around and get Detroit into contention. I think people forget that the Titans were 2-4 last year before winding up in the AFC Championship Game. I absolutely do not believe this will happen for Detroit, but rather, just being realistic that Detroit's schedule will ease up here soon enough, and maybe that gives them the confidence they need to make some things happen. But unless Patricia makes the playoffs, I am prepared, even eager I dare say, to move on. Now, I am obviously not Sheila Ford. But if I were, this is how I would approach this offseason.
General Manager
The biggest question, should Detroit falter is what happens to Bob Quinn. While most would probably assume that Quinn and Patricia's fates are tied together, I think it could be a little bit more complicated than that. Allow me to elaborate on this. First and foremost, my view of the role of the GM is to work in conjunction with your head coach to create a vision for what the team will look like. The coach then goes about implementing that vision on the practice field and in games, developing and coaching the team to wins in whatever fashion they think they can. The GM goes about implementing that vision in the free agent markets, on the trade blocs, and in the draft room. In this sense, I think you could actually argue that Bob Quinn has been effective. He has built the Detroit Lions in the image of the New England Patriots, largely by bringing in former Patriots and players with a similar skill set. In terms of swiftly restyling the team, Quinn has arguably done exactly this. He's given Patricia personnel that match the scheme both in the draft and in free agency. As the executioner of this flawed vision, Quinn has managed to reshape them. He is effective in building a wannabe Patriots. Most will focus on the wannabe Patriots, as the issue, and to a large degree, they aren't wrong. But what they miss is that Quinn has done it effectively. Now, there are surely some poor decisions mixed in there. Quinn missed on some draft evaluations like Jarrad Davis and Teez Tabor. He did ship out Quandre Diggs for pennies and missed the window to extend Kenny Golladay before it could get more expensive. This isn't to say that Quinn is perfect, in fact, I'm not even arguing Quinn is a relatively good GM, just that he effectively executed a vision. Personally, I wish he had embraced a better vision, and for that, I'd have no issue firing him. But rather, just making the case that Quinn could stick around for another coaching hire. After all, it was Quinn who fired Jim Caldwell for his utter inability to beat good teams, only to turn around and hire buddy buddy Matty P who struggles to even beat bad teams. If Quinn is gone, let's look at some of the names to replace him....
General Manager Candidates
The first name that usually comes to everyone's mind is Colts assistant GM Ed Dodds. A widely regarded scout during his time in Seattle, Colts current GM Chris Ballard swiped Dodds away by making him his number two in Indy. He's played a big part in rebuilding the Colts roster, whether bringing in guys like Denico Autry or Kenny Moore, or drafting players like Braden Smith and Darius Leonard. While he's clearly a top option for just about anyone, there are some questions about whether or not he even wants the spotlight of a GM position. From Bleacher Report's Matt Miller: "he doesn't particularly like the attention that comes with being a decision-maker and might not even have the desire to be a general manager." Personally, I don't think someone who is hesitant to take on a general manager role in the first place would be eager to go to the Lions, given our horrid history. Dodds was from the line of Seahawks GM John Schneider, and he has a few other deputies who could be interesting candidates, notably Seahawks co-director of player personnel Scott Fitterer. Originally a scout himself, he's been in Seattle for awhile now, and was huge piece of the 2010-2012 draft classes that produced Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner. Additionally, he serves alongside fellow co-director of player personnel, Trent Kirchner, who also figures to be an intriguing candidate. Detroit may want to consider getting someone with experience running their own show, and if that's the case, Saints assistant GM Jeff Ireland could be an interesting name. Ireland was the Dolphins GM from 2008 until 2013, a time when they weren't as bad as they have been the past few seasons. Over his stretch, they peaked in year one with a playoff berth, and proceeded to go 7-9 just about every year following. So why would Detroit be interested in Ireland? Well, he has had time to reflect on the mistakes made during his time, and spent the past few years working in a better organization (the Saints) where you get an idea of new ways to approach things. I live in Denver, and happen to be connected to a few Broncos employees out here, one of whom would actually have respectable insight, so I texted him and asked "who should Detroit consider for a new GM?". His response was 49ers VP of player personnel Adam Peters who was with Denver for a few years during their Super Bowl run. He ran college scouting in Denver, and now works alongside John Lynch in building the monstrosity that is the 49ers roster. He even made one the "GM candidates to know" lists that people put out, so it seems some others would share the hype. Looking at other successfully run organizations, the Baltimore Ravens and director of player personnel Joe Hortiz come to mind. Horitz has been in Baltimore under both Ozzie Newsome and DeCosta, so he's clearly seen what a well-run organization looks like, one that isn't exclusively tied to a legendary head coach. He's played a large role in scouting (1998-2016), a time in which Baltimore added stars like Ronnie Stanley, Za'Darius Smith, C.J Mosley, Brandon Williams, Kelechi Osemele, and Jimmy Smith amongst plenty of others. If Detroit wants to take a wild swing at the television personalities, like the Raiders did with Mike Mayock, the top candidate there would probably be ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, who was a pro scout with the Redskins for a few years, and worked as director of player personnel for both the Redskins and Eagles. One person I just want to clearly rule out is Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio. First and foremost, if Bill O'Brien survives the 2020 season as head coach of the Texans, Caserio will be named their new GM. Second, Detroit absolutely needs to avoid another born and raised Patriots executive. So no Caserio. If so, we riot. I think, ultimately for me, Ireland has too much baggage, Riddick is too much of a wild card, and Dodds isn't likely to leave for Detroit. Therefore, my top target is probably going to be Scott Fitterer, but I'd be thoroughly pleased with Kirchner, Peters, or Hortiz.
Head Coaching Candidates
Not even debating it. Matt Patricia is out. Between an archaic scheme, contentious relations with star players, and poor awareness with the media, Patricia hasn't shown he's worth it. We will be parting ways with him, and I'm sure he'll end up with the Patriots, Giants, or Dolphins in some assistant capacity. The first name to mention is Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Everyone knows the deal here, I'm not getting too much into it. Same with Michigan-native, 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. We'll be discussing less talked about candidates here. One name that does not get a lot of hype is Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman. He remains one of the absolute best at tailoring offenses to create dynamic rushing attacks with dual-threat quarterbacks. While Matthew Stafford isn't exactly a dual-threat QB, perhaps a pairing of Roman and OSU QB Justin Fields could be a lot of fun to watch. Roman has called offenses for both Harbaugh brothers, in San Francisco with Jim where he created an offense for Colin Kaepernick, and now in Baltimore with John and Lamar Jackson. One Kansas City coach who doesn't get as much hype as he probably should is Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Toub. He's a trusted assistant for Andy Reid, and historically speaking, special teams coordinators actually have a fairly high success rate. He's been highly regarded for his leadership within the Chiefs franchise these past few years. If Detroit wants to keep a defensive focus at the head coaching spot, then Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is one of the best in the business. Quoting CBS here, "Energetic and disciplined, he's Frank Reich's most well-rounded companion". Eberflus runs a fairly creative defensive scheme that has allowed guys like Darius Leonard to thrive, focusing on getting elite athletes across the board. His defense is so fun, that in Week 3 they actually caught more touchdowns passes from Jets QB Sam Darnold than Darnold was able to throw to members of his own team. Another defensive mind who should be under consideration is Ravens defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale. He's been there LB coach since 2012, and their coordinator since 2018 as the Ravens have continued to roll out good defensive units no matter who they have at hand. Martindale's defense is quite the opposite of Patricia's, they blitz like crazy and they mix up their coverage often. If Detroit is willing to give a head coach a second chance (the results on this trend are pretty mixed btw), then Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier would probably be the most intriguing second chance candidate. Quoting SBN here, "His three-year stint as the Vikings' head coach saw him lead the team to the playoffs in 2012 followed by a sharp fall in 2013. But it's hard to blame him too much when he was choosing between Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, and Matt Cassel at quarterback". While Sean McDermott is a defensive-minded head coach in Buffalo already, he's credited Frazier with a major role in turning the Bills into one of the top defenses in the NFL. Turning to offense, we have another Bills coordinator, Brian Daboll calling the shots on offense. Daboll was with the Patriots for a few years as their tight ends coach, before departing and finding success away from Belichick, winning a national title during his time as Alabama's offensive coordinator in 2017, before coming to Buffalo and molded the raw potential of Josh Allen into the dominant player he has been this year. Former Lions backup QB Kellen Moore, now the offensive coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys at only 32 years old figures to be a hot name soon. He's helped Dak Prescott continue to build his game, going from a steady game manager to a playmaker himself. Moore's a little young, but is one of the most prolific offensive minds in CFB. Also in the rising star mold is Buccaneers offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, a former star QB himself. Leftwich has worked under Bruce Arians for a few years now, and helped create an offense that put up prolific numbers with Jameis Winston (and a lot of interceptions as well). Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni has also gotten some hype from people in coaching circles, as he's helped the Colts manage the unexpected fallout of Andrew Luck's surprise retirement. If he can milk the remaining production out of Phillip Rivers, he'll be an intriguing candidate who has worked under a few quality head coaches already. Another offensive coordinator that merits some consideration is Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. He played a major role in transitioning the Titans from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, a move that helped propel them all the way to the AFC Championship game behind the effective duo of Derrick Henry's rushing ability and Tannehill's effectiveness off the play action pass, Usually teams don't hire position coaches, but it's not entirely out of the blue, especially if that position coach does have interim head coaching experience like Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbell. Campbell was Miami's interim head coach in 2015, going 5-7 after Joe Philbin was fired. Campbell also played TE for the Lions back in the second half of the 2000's, posting one of the better seasons a Lions tight end had at that point in 2006. He's considered an exceptional leader in the Saints organization. The Panthers brought in college head coach Matt Rhule this past year, and if Detroit is looking to do something similar, the three names to watch would probably be OSU head coach Ryan Day, a former Chip Kelly protege who has somehow made the Buckeyes even more deadly and efficient than they were under Urban Meyer, Oklahoma heisman producehead coach Lincoln Riley, who is responsible for getting Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray drafted #1 overall, and lastly Florida head coach Dan Mullen, a former Urban Meyer protege who has had immense success at Mississippi State and now at Florida so far. There's probably some other candidates I did not dive into. Though similar to Caserio and the GM tree, absolute pass on Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. No need to try that one a second time. Personally, I like a lot of these candidates. There's plenty of diversity in schemes, backgrounds, leadership styles, etc. My favorite, however, is Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. The work he's done with Josh Allen is fantastic, as he's crafted an offense that fits Allen's style, and whether he'd want to keep Stafford or draft his replacement, I'd have the utmost faith that he'd mold that QB in similar fashion.
Current Personnel
For the current personnel, it'll be important to identify which players have a future in Detroit. Whether that's based on scheme fit, age, health, cap implication, etc. Taking a look at the roster, here's my best guess, outside of one position, which is detailed in a separate section below. Running back is a good spot for Detroit, regardless of what happens to current starting RB Adrian Peterson. I like RB Kerryon Johnson, but I am absolutely against a sizeable contract extension. Personally, I don't think paying running backs anything more than like $5 mil per year is a good investment, regardless of what back it is. So, he's fine for another season under contract, but may end up parting ways after that. Drafting his replacement in RB D'Andre Swift was a wise move. I actually like the idea of taking good running backs (2nd-3rd round) every other season. That way you never have to pay them and always have fresh legs. Wide receiver will require some effort this offseason. Quinn massively screwed us by not extending WR Kenny Golladay prior to the season. Only leaves more time for larger contracts to be signed. For example, his spotract market value went up from $16 mil per season to almost $19 mil per season because of additional deals being signed. And with a lowered cap, that's gonna be problematic. The Lions should have at least a WR3/4 in WR Quintez Cephus, and WR Geronimo Allison opted out, meaning Detroit retains his contract for 2021. They'll likely need to draft someone early and sign another veteran, maybe even bringing back Jones or Amendola for a 1-year deal. Tight end is pretty straight forward. TE T.J. Hockenson was a top-10 selection, and is starting to look like a very good weapon for the offense going forward. His backup, TE Jesse James is also simple: his contract is too large to retain him if he continues his mediocre play. If he can more consistently play like he did against the Cardinals, they may keep him. If not, cut for cap space. Bryant and Nauta are sort of unknowns at this point. The offensive line may be Detroit's best spot going forward. LT Taylor Decker has been earning that contract extension so far, looking very good at this point. C Frank Ragnow will need his own contract extension soon, but he's been performing as one of the best centers in the NFL, and should remain an integral part of the unit. G Jonah Jackson looks promising as well in his rookie campaign. Detroit will have LG Joe Dahl under contract for one more year, and has G Logan Stenberg developing behind him. The bigger question comes with RT Hal Vaitai and RT Tyrell Crosby. If Vaitai continues to play poorly, he'll be cut after 2021. Crosby could easily be replaced with a better player by that time as well, but for now serves a valuable role as a decent enough spot starter. Defense is almost entirely dependent on who a new head coach would bring in to call the shots. Many of the players on Detroit's roster are scheme-specific to the old Patriot 3-4 scheme that Patricia loves to run. Let's just assume that, regardless of the new coach, it'll be a bit more diverse, modern scheme. On the defensive line, DE Trey Flowers is pretty scheme versatile funny enough. He can play SDE in a 4-man front or iDE in a 3-man. His contract will also pretty much require the new coach to make it work with him. And who knows, Flowers has had the intentional misfortune of playing under no-blitz Patricia, so chances are a more aggressive scheme could give him some help in pass rushing. DE Julian Okwara is also pretty versatile. He could be a 4-3 WDE or a 3-4 OLB and was a good pass rusher at Notre Dame. His brother, DE Romeo Okwara is frankly just not very good. If Detroit goes to a 4-man front in a new coach, they'll definitely want a replacement for Romeo, who is serviceable depth, but not much more. DE Austin Bryant hasn't shown enough to warrant an opinion one way or the other. Interior, DT Danny Shelton is probably not gonna fit in a new scheme. He's an inconsistent run defender who offers little in the pass rush department. DT Nick Williams is a bit more versatile, but the issue is that he's just not very good. His career is as a pretty bland back-end rotational piece. One good season in Chicago would appear to be an anomaly. Cutting either of these two (each set to make around $5 mil cap hits in 2021) would save a net $4 mil in much needed cap space. Behind them, DT Kevin Strong is relatively versatile, but not that good. He's still young and cheap, however, so could still find a role as depth. The big question will be DT Da'Shawn Hand, who has had an inconsistent, but promising career thus far. He can fill a pretty similar role to Flowers, perhaps even being able to play as a 3-tech DT in some schemes (cough, Dan Quinn defensive coordinator). He's a piece that could at least find a useful role under a new regime, but expect Shelton and Williams to be purged within 2 years. Linebacker is where you can pretty much just get rid of everyone. LB Jamie Collins is clearly the best player in the group, but I still wouldn't bet he'd be a for sure keep for a new regime. He struggled outside the Patriots system, during his exile to Cleveland. I think he could find a role as a 3-4 OLB, rather than the 4-3 ILB/OLB hybrid, but it's still hard to peg him in other schemes. He'll be with Detroit regardless in 2021 because of his contract however. LB Jarrad Davis should just walk at this point. Detroit is better when he's not on the field. LB Christian Jones is similar to Collins, in that he's a poor fit for most schemes, but the difference is he's not nearly as good as Collins. Could probably just trade him to whatever team Matt Patricia ends up on. The hardest part about a transition to a new scheme would be giving up on younger guys like LB Jahlani Tavai. He's shown some flashes, but really isn't much of a pass rusher and is too old school for modern schemes. Trading Tavai this offseason to a Patriots-style team (Giants, Miami, Patriots, etc.) would be best for both groups. Now, two guys who could be interesting to bring back are LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin and LB Elijah Lee. Both are currently fish out of water, as they're not great scheme fits for Patricia's defense. They both are on expiring deals however. I'd probably like to see Reeves-Maybin brought back in a new regime, simply because the chance for him to actually find success would go up in a scheme that fits his strengths a bit better. At cornerback, you have a pretty good foundation. CB Jeffrey Okudah and CB Amani Oruwariye are both pretty fluid athletes with the ability to thrive in multiple schemes. In fact, Oruwariye could potentially be even better in a Cover 3 scheme, should Detroit find someone who deploys that philosophy. Similarly, CB Justin Coleman is pretty versatile, especially out of the slot. He's excelled in the Seahawks Cover 3 scheme (which is honestly my recommendation for what kind of defense to run), but is still good in man coverage. Those three give Detroit a great start. CB Darryl Roberts is built more for Patricia's scheme, so probably won't be back, but I'd expect Detroit to find another veteran like him to fill out the two deep. CB Desmond Trufant is definitely a man coverage corner, and is also old and with a checkered injury history recently. We always knew Trufant was more of a veteran bridge to Okudah and Oruwariye taking over. Safety is interesting. S Tracy Walker is a rising star and honestly can play any scheme. He's a baller. S Will Harris is not. Maybe a new scheme gets him sorted out, but at the same time, his biggest issue is that he can't cover in man and he can't tackle. Kind of hard to be a slot safety when you struggle with that. S Duron Harmon is a quality Cover 1 free safety, but he's on an expiring contract. Detroit will likely need to find a new starter there, as Harris isn't ideally suited to free safety, and S C.J. Moore is more of a special teams piece than a starting caliber player. We still need to see more from S Jayron Kearse looks like before making decisions there. Special Teams will require some investment this offseason. Detroit's punting god, Jack Fox, is an ERFA, meaning Detroit can bring him back for pretty cheap. They may just want to reward him and sign him to a deal for a few seasons (though COVID cap implications may prevent that). Both K Matt Prater and LS Don Muhlbach are on expiring deals, so either new deals for them, or replacements. Lions backup LS Steven Wirtel has gotten some praise as a future NFL LS, so perhaps they hand the reins over to him, given that he'd cost half what Muhlbach would, and the Lions will need every penny this offseason.
Quarterback 2021 and Beyond
If there is a new regime change, then it's not out of the realm of possibility that they look into the prospect of finding Matthew Stafford's successor. Stafford will be 33-years old in 2021, and while QB's are still able to continue playing at a high level into their late 30's, for example, Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan and Brady and Brees have all put together quality seasons lately, despite their older age. However, 35 is traditionally the drop-off age, and for a QB who relies on arm talent, it is most definitely something to watch and consider. I'll say this first and foremost, if Detroit ends up in a position to select QB Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson, you pull the trigger on that and sort things out later. The two options behind him are QB Justin Fields, a dual-threat option out of Ohio State, and QB Trey Lance, an athletic, efficient QB out of North Dakota State. Now, personally, I'm a bit skeptical of Trey Lance. I think NDSU sets everything up for him on a platter, and the more film you watch on Lance, the more I find he struggles on full-field reads. If you can isolate his playbook to a half-field read, then I think he crushes it, but the troubles outside of that, added into the large talent gap between NDSU and literally anyone else in the FCS, makes me hesitant. To me, Lance is a slightly higher upside version of Titans QBRyan Tannehill. In that sense, I don't really think he'd be worth the investment if Detroit is selecting in the top-15. Now, Justin Fields is growing on me, admittedly. Rewatched a handful of his OSU games and continue to find his ability to dissect coverage to be a lot more advanced than I recalled during the season. He has a big arm, and has one of the most coveted traits nowadays: the ability to make plays when the original structure breaks down. I think, at this point, I'd probably be sold on Fields, but not on Lance, though honestly, if they did hire a competent offensive mind like Bieniemy or Daboll, I wouldn't object to it, as I think anyone who can get such massive leaps out of Josh Allen could probably get the most out of Trey Lance as well. The bigger issue I do have is whether or not Detroit should move on from Stafford at this point. A few things can all be true at the same time, and four things I'm going to mention all are true.
Matthew Stafford is not playing as well as he was in the first half of 2020, and the issues don't exactly seem to be tied to any injury.
Despite not playing as well as 2020, Stafford is still one of the better QB's in the league, ranking 11th in passing yards (1,017) and 7th in touchdown passes (8). That kind of production wins games with a better defense.
Detroit would be marginally restricted in the ability to build a roster around a large QB cap hit like Stafford's.
The issues holding Detroit back most (its defense) would not be solved with a new quarterback. There are plenty examples of promising young quarterbacks being broken because they were put in less than ideal situations....Sam Darnold in New York being just the latest example. Unless Detroit can build a competent defense, it will not actually matter who the quarterback is.
All that just to say, let's all chill out a bit when dealing with each other's takes on what to do at QB. We don't have to draft a new QB, that denies so many of the bigger issues. We also do not have to keep Matthew Stafford, that denies the reality that plenty of teams have found a new QB can elevate the play of the team, helping them go from good to great (see Chiefs moving Alex Smith for Mahomes), and that even with Stafford, Detroit remains mediocre. Personally, I think it's better to build a good roster and then make the change at quarterback. Right now, I think Detroit is set-up well for its OL going forward, and probably will be decent at WRB with Golladay and Hockenson and Swift and Kerryon, but the defense will continue to lose us games, and I'd hate to waste the early years of a cheap rookie QB still trying to build the roster around him. And personally, I think every bit as good as Fields and Lance is USC QB Kedon Slovis as a potential QB to target in the 2022 draft class.
2021 Free Agency Complications
Now, truly, I have no clue what's going to happen with this, but Detroit, along with the rest of the league, is not going to be overflowing with cap space. Minimal fans in the stadium means no ticket revenue. Some doomsday predictions have the cap going down as far as $175 million. Realistically speaking, I wouldn't anticipate Detroit entering the offseason with anything more than $15-20 million in cap space. If you're trying to overhaul a new scheme with new personnel, that'll be kind of tough. Detroit has a few pieces it can cut, however. Some have been mentioned....Jesse James, Danny Shelton, Nick Williams. All could open up a little bit of change (over $10 mil if all 3) which would be majorly beneficial. Another one who could go is CB Desmond Trufant, which would free up $6 million. QB Chase Daniel could easily have a restructured contract to open up in between $1-2 million. G Joe Dahl would save $3 million if he was cut, but I don't see that really happening, as Dahl's a good bargain for a quality enough starting G. Maybe if Logan Stenberg develops into a quality piece Dahl could be traded, but that seems unlikely.
2021 Free Agency Targets
To remake the team, I'm first going to identify a few veterans who could help accelerate a quick turnaround defensively. Assuming I've gotten my wish of Detroit Lions head coach Brian Daboll, then the offense wouldn't need much reconfiguration. There would honestly be two players I'd want Daboll to bring with him from Buffalo. They are... Bills G Jon Feliciano - a powerful run blocker, Feliciano could either compete with Dahl outright, or simply serve as the first back-up at guard...the new and improved Kenny Wiggins so to speak. Bills LB Matt Milano - Detroit will need modern linebackers, and Milano would be an excellent one to start with. He can cover, get sideline to sideline, and make plays in the box. I think Buffalo ends up re-signing him however. Now, I don't want to simply switch from the Patriots West to the Bills West. But I do generally believe that any new coach should try and bring 2 or 3 players who are familiar, if for nothing more than putting pieces in place that can help introduce the new system to the current roster. Some others however. Detroit will probably need another starting wide receiver in free agency, and while I would absolutely love to get Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins to Detroit, he'll probably be a bit out of the price range, given how many pieces Detroit could need on defense. Some of the more financially plausible options would likely be Jags WR Chris Conley, 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne, Rams WR Josh Reynolds, or maybe Bengals WR John Ross. Similarly, I'd love to go after Bills TE Tyler Kroft as another piece to work with Hockenson, but he'd probably be too pricey, and I imagine Buffalo will retain him rather than let him hit the market. Jags TE Tyler Eifert, Titans TE MyCole Pruitt, or perhaps Seahawks TE Jacob Hollister would all make a bit more sense. This would be dependent on cutting Jesse James in search of an upgrade. Detroit is set on starting OL, but could use a depth piece with Wiggins and Aboushi both on expiring deals. Chargers G Dan Feeney has starting experience, though most of the options here are pretty mediocre. Could actually argue that retaining Wiggins would be the wisest course of action. Defensive Tackle will be a MAJOR spot to address, as Detroit currently doesn't have a quality group there, and scheme change could make it worse. There are some big names like Saints DT Sheldon Rankins or Michigan-native Raiders DT Johnathan Hankins, whom Detroit should've brought in awhile ago. Broncos DT Shelby Harris is a good interior pass rusher who can play multiple roles. I'm guessing Detroit doesn't pony up the money for Giants DT Dalvin Tomlinson but I wouldn't hate that. Defensive end would be a need if Detroit went to a 4-man front, as you'd want an upgrade over Romeo Okwara. Assuming Detroit isn't going for the big names like Vikings DE Yannick Ngakoue or Titans DE Jadeveon Clowney, a more sensible option would a stopgap option like Washington EDGE Ryan Kerrigan, who can play really any edge spot well. Colts DE Denico Autry would be plenty of fun, and if the Lions hired someone like Matt Eberflus, I'd want them to for sure make that move. One of the more under-the-radar pieces that could be more fiscally responsible would be Saints DE Trey Hendrickson. If they go more of a traditional 3-4, then adding an upgrade over Christian Jones would be the move there. Kerrigan would still fit that one well, but other options could be Chargers OLB Melvin Ingram. Perhaps a head coach Martindale would want to bring GVSU grade OLB Matt Judon to Detroit? Though both those options would be pricy. A cheaper option would Jets OLB Jordan Jenkins or maybe Rams OLB Samson Ebukam. Off ball linebackers, we already mentioned Milano. Bucs LB Kendall Beckwith would make some sense, as would Saints LB Alex Anzalone or Chiefs LB Damien Wilson. None of these guys would be stars, but most teams hang onto good LB's who can play off ball and cover backs, so you're probably looking for a veteran stopgap to hold over until you can draft a guy.
2021 NFL Draft
We're getting deep into this. Depending on where Detroit is drafting and who they pulled in with free agency, these would be the guys I'd be most interested in acquiring. DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State - Like I said, Detroit needs to be a lot better at DT, and Wilson is a monster. DE Aidan Hutchinson/Kwity Paye, Michigan - If one of these two could slip to you in the second round, that'd be great. Both very good edge rushers. Would love to grab Carlos Basham out of Wake Forest if Detroit is mid first. I also like Quincy Roche as an OLB in a 3-4. A starting caliber WR. If they miss out on Ja'Marr Chase, then one of the Alabama wide outs (Jaylen Waddle or Devonta Smith) would suffice just fine. I mentioned the other day that Waddle is my current preferred choice for the draft at this point. Gophers WR Rashod Bateman could also be a fun addition. If they need to hunt for a starting wide out in the 3rd or 4th, Michigan's Nico Collins is an excellent deep threat, not too far from the mold of Golladay and Jones. OSU WR Chris Olave would be a clean replacement for Amendola in the slot. I think Detroit could use a free safety like Trevon Moehrig or Andre Cisco to either immediately start, or develop behind a veteran. Moehrig may end up as a late first round option, but Cisco could be a day 2 pick that pays off immediately. G Wyatt Davis may not stick out as a clear need, but y'all know I am an OL coach, and I think this kid is the best G prospect since Quentin Nelson, so I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger, trade Joe Dahl for a pick, and call it a day. If C/G Josh Myers dropped to the second, I'd also be a very big fan of that move as well. I'm guessing most wouldn't like that, as OL is a relative strength to other spots on the roster, and that's understandable, but if we're truly talking best player available mentality, then Davis has to be considered right after guys like Micah Parsons, Ja'Marr Chase, and Lawrence. As far as linebackers go, either LSU's Jabrill Cox or LB Chazz Surratt out of North Carolina could be guys who can slide into starting roles quickly. Same goes for Micah Parsons but unless Detroit's drafting top-5, they don't get him. Few others who have appeal right now as later round prospects...TE Matt Bushman (BYU), WR Dazz Newsome (UNC), LB Dmitri Moore (Vanderbilt), CB Camryn Bynum (Cal), WR Tutu Atwell (Louisville), LB Ventrell Miller (Florida), S Reed Blankenship (MTSU), and LB Rayshard Ashby (VaTech). Overall, a lot of different ways to go, but this would be my proposal at least. Bring in Brian Daboll, get him a veteran defensive coordinator, and then go about building a modern defense. See what you can get out of Matt Stafford, and prepare for a transition down the road if needed at that point.
[OC] HARM Standings - Home-field Advantage Readjustment Model (a completely trivial thing)
Yeah, that's a forced name. This is a simple look into which teams are harmed the most by having to play to empty stadiums. Why? We all know the NFL is playing to empty and limited crowds. We also know that home-field advantage is an actual thing. Professional odds-makers use various methods to determine the home-field advantage of each individual team. I, however, am a simple man. Three points. A field goal. That's what I'm saying home teams are missing out on by not having full stadiums this year. Another reason for me doing this is because I wanted to find the most tedious way to spend a few hours, and adjusting scores and learning Reddit table formatting fit the bill. How? What I did was pretty straightforward. I went through the weekly scoreboards and adjusted home losses by 3 points. Any games changed are reflected in the team's record. I didn't adjust for which teams have limited or no fans. Nor did I adjust for certain teams known for a bigger home field advantage. This three point decision wasn't an arbitrary number either. While trying to decide how detailed I was going to get with this, I read over and over how casual betting discussions say 3 is the advantage. So consider this a casual study. If for some reason anyone wants to make more precise adjustments using data from people more qualified than I, you might want to use the 2019 lines. The 2020 lines take into account there being limited/no crowds and are significantly lower than 2019 when crowds were present, and after all- that's the whole point. So what changed? In Week 1- - The Chargers 16-13 victory over the Bengals becomes a tie. - The Titans 16-14 victory over the Broncos becomes a Broncos victory. In Week 2- - The Bills 31-28 victory over the Dolphins becomes a tie. - The Chiefs 23-20 victory over the Chargers becomes a tie. In Week 3- - The Bengals 23-23 victory overtie with the Eagles becomes an Eagles victory. - The Titans 31-30 victory over the Vikings becomes a Vikings Victory. - The Lions 26-23 victory over the Cardinals becomes a tie. We're on to the standings.
TEAM
TRUE
+3
+/-
NFC WEST
Seahawks
3-0
3-0
0
Cardinals
2-1
2-1
0
Rams
2-1
2-1
0
49ers
2-1
2-1
0
NFC EAST
Football Team
1-2
1-2
0
Cowboys
1-2
1-2
0
Eagles
0-2-1
1-2
⬆
Giants
0-3
0-3
0
NFC NORTH
Packers
3-0
3-0
0
Bears
3-0
3-0
0
Lions
1-2
1-2
⬇
Vikings
0-3
1-2
⬆
NFC SOUTH
Buccaneers
2-1
2-1
0
Saints
1-2
1-2
0
Panthers
1-2
1-2
0
Falcons
0-3
0-3
0
AFC WEST
Chiefs
3-0
2-0-1
0
Raiders
2-1
2-1
0
Chargers
1-2
0-1-2
0
Broncos
0-3
1-2
0
AFC EAST
Bills
3-0
2-0-1
0
Patriots
2-1
2-1
0
Dolphins
1-2
1-1-1
0
Jets
0-3
0-3
0
AFC NORTH
Steelers
3-0
3-0
0
Ravens
2-1
2-1
0
Browns
2-1
2-1
0
Bengals
0-2-1
0-2-1
0
AFC SOUTH
Titans
3-0
1-2
⬇
Colts
2-1
2-1
⬆
Jaguars
1-2
1-2
0
Texans
0-3
0-3
0
Not much has changed in the NFC standings. That one new win for the Eagles is enough to propel them into a three way tie for the lead in the NFC East. The Vikings stay in the NFC North basement, but have a new roommate in the now likewise 1-2 Lions. Over in the AFC, even with two adjustments, the Bengals record remains the same. They swap the week three tie (now a loss to the Eagles) with the week one loss (now a tie with the Chargers) and remain 0-2-1. The Chiefs narrowly keep their lead as the gap throughout the entire division narrows. The Titans, clearly the biggest losers in this inane experiment, trade two close wins for losses and give up the top AFC South spot to the Colts. Also, that's a lot of new ties. But that shouldn't be that surprising. After all, "over the past five years, a league-high 14.7% of NFL games were decided by exactly three points". Something that I did pick up on is that the Bengals, Chargers and Titans are all playing pretty close ball games. Every single one of their games have been decided by single scores. The biggest final score differential in all of their games was the Chargers five point loss to Carolina. Both of their wins were by three. Titans have had one, two and three point wins, while the Bengals have had non-wins of five, three and nil. If anyone sees any errors, let me know. As the season progresses, I'm sure the HARM standings will vary greatly when compared to the actual standings. Depending on the subs reaction, I've got no problem continuing to do this. (edited to fix an error with the Dolphins adjusted record)
I'm back once again with each team's implied point totals for Week 4 based on Vegas oveunder lines. These are useful when deciding between tough start/sit decisions, and I typically lean towards starting players whose teams are projected to score the most points. This week is weird because there are no betting lines for two games: Texans/Vikings and Titans/Steelers. Therefore, those teams do not have data. New this week, I have included each game's oveunder. Fun Stats: Highest Implied Point Total - Packers (32.25) Lowest Implied Point Total - Football Team (15.75) Highest Game OveUnder - Packers v. Falcons (57) Lowest Game OveUnder - Broncos v. Jets (41) Last week 72% of teams scored OVER their implied point total This season teams have scored OVER their implied point totals 62.5% of the time The Packers, Seahawks, Bills, Buccaneers, and Falcons are the only teams to have scored more than their implied point total each of the first three weeks The Eagles and the Giants are the only teams to have scored less than their implied point total each of the first three weeks
I got myself a Weighted Blanket, and now I am trapped inside my Bedroom
This all started because of a simple sentence that would come out of my mouth every, single, day. “I just feel so tired.” Now, anyone who has a fulltime job in any sector would use these words at least once a week. I mean the only people who ever seem immune to this feeling are your high-earning career people (who I am sure are all on some form of upper, if not straight up cocaine), or people who have graduated from tired to just plainly no longer giving a shit. The latter are characterised by a simple “I’m fine”. All I know is that my mental and physical fatigue must be brought on by my inability to switch off at night. I can point out several possible culprits to blame for this: The anxiety of an overworked, underpaid career. My recent breakup with a girl I had been with for the last three years. It could also just plainly be the fact that I am out of shape and tend to stress eat (a truly vicious cycle). Regardless of the reasons, at the end of the day I am simply not getting the required eight hours of rest needed to keep a healthy lifestyle, but c'mon, no one has time to sleep anymore. Bills need paying and that rich asshole above you doesn’t give a crap how tired you are. You are replaceable. I was able to function on three to four hours of sleep in the past, but for the last week or two it seems my body has set an ultimatum for itself: either I get a full eight hours of sleep, or I don’t sleep at all. This had begun to influence my ability to work as I would pretty much turn into a zombie staring at a monitor. Don’t get me wrong, I still get some work done, but it sure as Hell isn’t the amount expected of me. Thankfully my team manager was a friend, and had known about my insomnia before I had even started working there. She remained as supportive as she could for as long as she was able to (and bless her heart for that, I would have made a formal complaint if I saw someone sleeping during that many team meetings), but when the bottom line started to feel it she had to step in. I remember how terrified I was when she asked me to stay behind on Wednesday before quitting time. When I was entering heroffice (well shared office with the other team managers, small space and all) my palms were slick with sweat and I felt as though all the blood in my face had retreated to the recesses of my stomach. “Jason, you don’t need to look so pale, man,” she gestured to the chair opposite her. With my slightly blurred vision, I attempted to keep eye contact (well as sure as I could be it was eye contact) and sat down. “Wanted to see me, Becca?” (Her full name is Rebecca, but you only called her that when you were looking for a bruised shoulder). She gave a blurry smile and replied, “Jason, you’re tired. And it is pretty obvious that you can’t cope with the work I am sending your way.” she gave a slight shrug, “Your numbers aren’t going down and I can’t keep hiding it my man.” I gave a shaky nod, she was right. I’m not much of a senior team member if I am barely keeping up with the new hires. As I was getting ready to form some sort of apology and promise of improvement, the awkward silence was broken, “So I sorted out a quick fix for ya. Well, maybe.” I stared up at her and replied a bit louder than intended, “Anything! I really can’t lose this job. Whatever you suggest, I’ll do.” My vision had returned as though my mind had managed to fight through the tiredness, eager to learn the secrets of a good night’s sleep. “Like you I was having some trouble sleeping a while back, I mean you think you have a lot to do,” she smirked, “just never become a team manager. The hours are shit and the pay is even worse,” she paused and looked over at me half expectantly. In hindsight I realized she wanted me to laugh. I was just too eager to hear what her solution was to pay attention to any unrelated details. She awkwardly cleared her throat, “You ever try a weighted blanket?” I could honestly say no. You ever have that feeling when someone mentions something you both knew about but have never actually thought about? The concept just seemed odd to me way back when. My goto for fixing my sleeping problem was medication and trying to tire myself out with exercise (well, back in the days when eating was not my comfort after a long day). “No, never really tried it.” I heard her give a small snort, no doubt in response to how I have been suffering with lack of sleep, yet was too tired to explore all the possible ways of fixing the problem. “Well, I remember you used to look more alive with your ex-chick… Amanda?” “Amy.” I auto corrected, not really sure why my head wanted to get online again now. “Yeah, her. Anyway, I remember when I was having issues I slept better when I felt like someone was with me in bed.” I assume I pulled an odd face because the next response from her flew out at max speed. “And I am not talking about bumping uglies, I just mean good wholesome cuddling. People feel safer and can fall asleep easier.” the thought had honestly not even crossed my mind, I was too busy daydreaming about Amy, wondering what she was up to. “Sorry, kinda dozed off. So I should just get some heavy blanket?” She let out a sigh and took out her phone, “Link. Read. Glass beads. Yes?” She looked at me as though I was a confused child trying to get which end of the spoon goes in its mouth, a test I honestly felt I could fail at that point in time. “Yes mom.” I said, trying my best to balance the gratitude with the sarcasm. “Yeah, yeah. Stop slouching and go play with the other kids then. Let me know if you need an advance on your pay, I really suggest going with the more expensive option.” And so I spent the rest of my week researching weighted blankets, looking online for the prices and I must say, shit is expensive… The pricing naturally being influenced by size, but also by what they actually put in the damn thing. When I read glass I actually imagined them putting fist sized crystal balls that would hang off the sides of my bed. I was actually a little disappointed when I saw that everything they stuff in the blanked was essentially the size of sand. So in the end I took up my Manager’s offer of getting an advance payment, it was only the second week of the month (and I kinda went a little crazy the weekend prior), and got myself a 13kg glass bead blanket. They said that shipping could take from three days to two weeks depending on whether or not you were stupid enough to trust the mail service of my home country. Like any sensible person I opted for a courier. It was the pricier option, but I’d rather actually get the blanket than let some disgruntled postal worker run off with it. The following three days were excruciating, my sleep had somehow managed to get worse since now my head was occupied with thoughts of the blanket. You could say the anticipation was actively trying to kill me. I remember how, on the third day, I had pretty much been sleeping through my shift when I was awoken by my manager, “Damn, what planet did you go to?” The grasp on my shoulder felt firmer than usual, pretty sure Becca was more annoyed with my sleeping than she was letting on. “Sorry, sorry. Will take a walk and get some coffee in me. I am so so--” She squeezed my shoulder to quiet me down, “Package for you at the front desk, take it and go home. We’ll write it up as sick leave, alright?” a genuinely warm smile came across her face, and I knew she was right to send me home. At this rate the day was a writeoff anyway. Upon arriving home (thank god I take the bus, I’m pretty sure if I had to drive myself I’d hit every car on the way) I grabbed a knife from the kitchen and basically went Mike Myeres on that box, I felt surprised when I remembered that the blanket was in there and I could have easily damaged one of the most expensive pieces of cloth I had ever owned. Once out of the box I could say it looked like it was worth the ridiculous price, velvety soft and thick, not at all course like I imagined it. I could feel the weight too, my brain almost screaming that the blanket should be about five times bigger than it was. It was around 1 pm but I was so floaty that I decided I might as well test the blanket out right away. Being optimistic I set my alarm for my usual wake up time for work. I was too tired to care about waking up for supper, I would just make up for it the next day during lunch. I got onto my bed and burrowed underneath the new blanket. At first it felt slightly odd, as though I was buried under several pillows. Slowly I began to think that this too would end in failure, just another expense in the unwinnable battle of sleep, but then the weight began to settle around me. My mind began to imagine the embrace of my mother and I could feel myself fall away. The park smelt like spring, I could hear the faint sizzling of meat on grills along with the laughter of my friends. It was summer holiday and we were all at the park for my birthday. I was turning 12 and my parents decided that rather than doing a stuffy celebration at home or restricted in a restaurant (also a horrible place to try and control the chaos that is an army of children), that we would go to the local botanical garden and set up several picnic spots. “Jason. Why are you just sitting there son?” I looked up at the warm, wide smile of my Dad as he loomed over me. “Don’t know, felt like sitting,” I replied, scanning around us to see where my friends had gone. They were all running near the trees, yelping and jumping as they tried to avoid everyone who was it. “Don’t you want to join them, kiddo?” my Dad asked after I stared for a while. “Not yet, I want burgers.” I looked up at my Dad with a toothy grin, feeling the gentle breeze blowing past the gap at the bottom row of teeth. Dad raised an eyebrow with a mock stern face, “You want burgersssssssss?” “Please!” I responded with a giggle. Dad would keep holding sounds and refuse to move until we remembered our manners. My sister and I once got him to hiss like a snake for almost five minutes before Mom decided the game had to end. With his smile returning he said, “Sure thing kiddo. Go find your Mom for me, huh? Bet she wants to see the birthday boy for a bit.” I presented to him my arm, he took a firm grip and, in one swift motion, lifted me so I was on my feet. The moment he let go I shot off towards my Mom who was walking with my little sister near the trees. Before I reached her I saw her turning to me, “And here he comes! Can the birthday boy make it all the way!” Sarah (my sister) took on the role of a proper hype man for Mom by beginning to “Ooh” and “Aah” at the comments. I leapt at my Mom once I was within arms reach, we both fell to the ground and I began to half panic when I realised I knocked her over. But these fears were immediately extinguished when I heard a laugh under me, “Ouch. I was more thinking of a racing car than a wrestler, what do you think, Sarah?” Mom looked up at her while she started tugging on my arm. “He’s just not happy that he can’t make Daddy fall.” I heard her small voice say in between the tugs. “Sorry Mom, did I hurt you?” hoping the concern in my voice would be very obvious. “Oh don’t worry Jason, your Mommy isn’t a pushover…” she paused, “alright usually not, but you got me by surprise is all,” I felt a kiss on my forehead, “my little boy is getting too big and he is only 12, we’ll need to start stocking up on more food or you might eat the house with how fast you are growing.” Once we were both on our feet, Mom knelt down and hugged me so tight I thought my eyes would pop out, “Mom! You’re crushing me!” I could hear her laughing as her grip loosened, “Oh, don’t be such a baby. Pain builds character.” “Burgers are ready you animals!” Dad’s voice boomed out over the park. The army of kids stormed my Dad at his station. I could see him holding some of them back since they almost ran into the grill. I looked back at Mom and Sarah to walk back with them for food, I was starving. The only problem was that I couldn’t see Sarah anymore, my Mom was staring at something in the opposite direction of me and the party. “Mom, where’d Sarah go?” We had fallen into the shade of the trees, it was a warm day so the shade was welcome but I don’t remember it being so close. My breath began to get louder in my ears, it sounded as thought I had run flat out only moments ago. My Mom turned around and, with a gentle smile, said, “she wants to play hide and seek, silly. You shouldn’t be rude now,” She raised an arm and pointed at the trees, “Get going now.” She seemed so-- The loud screeches of my alarm were ringing in my ears, I swear sometimes I hated Becca for suggesting making the sound of a car crash my alarm. But damn if it wasn’t effective, never slept through it (well the handful of times that I had somehow managed not to wake up before it went off). I couldn’t believe it though, I slept right through until morning. And I felt amazing, the only oddity was that dream I had and how clearly I could remember it. My face was not buried under the blanket as it had been the previous night, my head had popped out during the night, however the blanket was still wrapped around me. It felt like a warm embrace that almost made we want to go back to sleep out of pure comfort. The deep, slow breaths in my ears began to mesmerise me back to sleep. The thought left my mind when my stomach reminded me that I had committed the cardinal sin of not eating supper the previous night, and, for once, I wasn’t too tired to make myself a real breakfast before work. I had a feeling it was going to be a good Friday. Once I reached the office I did what I no longer thought possible, I started working immediately. I got there at about 8 and made such good progress I started to worry I might run out of work to do. “Well hell! Look who finally rose from the dead,” Becca’s voice was unmistakable. “Mind keeping it down? People are trying to work here.” I said without turning to her. A palm colliding with the back of my head made it clear that the snarkiness was noted. “Look at us, we wake up for once and now we think we are some hot shit, huh?” I turned to see a giant grin on her face. “So, it worked then, huh? Unless you just did a shitload of crack and drink some of that Jet Fuel they call energy drinks?” “Ha, uh,” I made my voice more sincere, “Thank you Rebecca, that blanket really helped. And thank you so much for sending me home, really needed--” I was silenced by a raised hand. “Get me a bottle of the good stuff and we call it even, alright?” We shared a laugh and I reminded her that the blanket was fairly expensive so her bottle would have to wait. I was not surprised when she left me with a numb shoulder. Work went by quickly thanks to me actually being present. As I had predicted, it was a good day. I got home and cleaned up the place while my supper was cooking, this excess of energy was alien to me, but it was a good feeling. Not getting home drained and trying to run out an internal clock that didn’t want to listen was a welcome change. I enjoyed my supper of steamed veg and some oven fried chicken (I have a recipe that makes it all crumbly like the good old Colonel used to make, naturally without the secret stuff that I think is just a load of shit). It wasn’t ten minutes later when I had decided that I was going to have an early night. The prospect of another deep and actually restful sleep excited me. Going through the shower in record time, along with the other bathroom activities, I dove head first into bed and eagerly wrapped myself up in the blanket. Once again I opted to submerge myself completely under it so no parts of my body would stick out, emulating the feeling of being cradled in a way (insert Freudian garbage here). I’m not sure how long I layed there, maybe 10 or 20 minutes, I wanted to check my phone for the time, but I was worried about the whole, “synthetic light tricks your brain into thinking you should be awake,” thing. Maybe I had gone to bed too early? Or I was too excited and now I can’t sleep? I could hear breathing fill my ears. Was my breathing always that loud? The blanket began to feel heavier, as though it was only now trying to cover me properly. I found it odd that the blanket was actually heavy enough to force me to lay flat on my back. It’s all very… The burger was awesome! I looked over at Dad, “Is swo guuud.” I felt a few crumbs eject from my mouth, Dad looked amused. That was until he saw Mom’s angry face, “Uhhhh, bad Jason. No eating with a full mouth.” Besides the obvious blunder in his speech, he tried to put on a serious expression meant to show me his displeasure, he was really bad at it since he looked more like one of the other kids at the party pretending to be an adult. Mom just rolled her eyes, and then gave me a full blast of her serious expression. My next bite was tiny and was chewed 40 times. I began to look around at my friends, but I couldn’t see anyone. At the table it was only myself, Mom, and Dad. “Dad?” He didn’t look up, well not right away. It looked like he was trying to be dramatic by lifting his head as slowly as possible. I couldn’t help but giggle at the ridiculous sight of his slomo act. My giggle however came out sounding like a long, drawn out, sarcastic laugh, you know a kind of “ Ha. Ha. Ha.” It was funny but I wasn’t aware I was trying to copy Dad’s slow motion joke. A deep inhale sounded in my ears, why was I breathing so heavily? “What is it kiddo?” I shot back to my Dad who was now no longer pretending to be in the Matrix. It took me a second to remember what it was that I wanted to ask, “Uhm… Oh yea! Where did everybody go?” My Dad made a big toothy smile and pointed over my shoulder, “To play hide and seek in the trees, silly.” I looked over at the trees, fairly sure I would have trouble seeing my friends from so far away. But the trees were a lot closer than I remembered, I had to run a decent distance last time to reach them. Now they were just a small jog away. “Are you sure, Dad?” I asked, trying to hold my breath to listen for the obvious sounds of my friends playing. My breath, however, kept filling my ears, deep inhales with long exhales, yet not a single laugh or yell. The only other sound in the air was a breeze that I could see passing through the trees. I couldn’t tell how long I stared at them, swaying back and forth. The long shadows reaching out from beneath them. My trance only ended when I saw a figure move in my peripheral. It was moving so slowly that at first I assumed it was a post or something, but after a while I could make out my Mom in her white summer dress. She was walking, but moving too slow to be walking. It seemed more like she weighed down by the air around her. At first I considered that my Mom might be making a joke, pretending to move in slow motion because I was spacing out (my parents are very funny people, they like trying to make us feel awkward). But as she entered my vision properly I noticed that the breeze going through her hair and making her dress billow, was also in slow motion. My Mom was moving at half speed, all while I saw the trees swaying normally, the shadows they casted reaching out further and further. Through deep and distractingly loud breaths I managed to mumble out, “Mom?” She didn’t reply, she just kept walking towards the trees in slow motion. The shadows that they casted seemed similar to clawed hands, beckoning her to enter their grasp. My breathing became more erratic, I could feel myself begin to panic. I wanted to save my Mom but I couldn’t move. I tried calling for Dad to save her but I couldn’t speak. The world around me began to get drained of colour and I felt a pressure on my chest. My breathing became louder and louder in my ears. And then I saw-- My eyes shot open and I felt a terrible stinging pain in my head, as the light hit my eyes it got even worse. I had woken up once again with everything except my head covered by the blanket, however unlike the day before where I felt rested and rejuvenated, now I felt drained and my body ached as though I had been doing intense exercise. What the hell was with that dream? Some sort of stress that I am unaware of, maybe the sudden increase in sleep is alien to my body? My thoughts were interrupted by the alarm on my phone, my head feeling as though it was now in an actual car crash. I cursed and reached out for the phone, the only problem was that my body didn’t respond to the command. I attempted to will myself more, but it felt as though I was being held down. The blanket no longer weighed 13kg, it felt more like a building was placed on my body. Simple twitches were the most I was able to perform. I began to panic, could feel the muscles in my body tensing, but through all of this the breathing in my ears remained even. Just as tears began to fill my vision of the absolute dread I was feeling, I shot up and immediately threw the blanket off of me. Running to the corner of my room I remained frozen there for a while, frantically searching for a threat that was not present. It took me a few minutes to notice that the alarm had timed out, all I was able to focus on was the blanket now lying in a bundle on the floor. After what felt like an eternity I approached my bed once more and picked up my phone to turn off the alarm… The alarm had been going on and off for the past five hours. I have never slept through an alarm, never mind how I managed to do so for five hours. My body continued to ache and the scare of the morning left me feeling even more drained than I felt when I first woke up. Every fibre of my being begged me to rest more, but I was too terrified to get back into that bed. In the end my unease drove me from my home, I went walking around in the local park, ate at the mall near my house, and just generally did anything I could to avoid going home. Throughout the entire day my head throbbed and I jumped at the sound of rustling trees (part of the reason why I opted to go to the mall rather than staying in the park). But as it got later the curfew time for the virus began to kick in. Most shops had already closed their doors at six and the mall made the final call at ten. I had no choice but to return home. The simple act of opening the front door filled me with dread and unease, how could a dream be causing me such terrible anxiety? I had done some research throughout the day and believed that my frozen state was a form of sleep paralysis, a prospect which also terrified me as I was not looking forward to suffering through shadow people conjured up by my own mind. But whether I liked it or not, I was exhausted. At first I tried to keep myself awake with the tried and tested technique of drinking a ridiculous amount of coffee. Did you know drinking caffeine when you are tired actually makes you more tired? I found that out while reading random facts online to keep my mind preoccupied, which was about as effective as building a house made of ice in the desert. I had been drifting in and out of consciousness on my living room couch until about 3 am when I finally decided I needed to stop being a child and go to bed, a stupid nightmare can’t cause me this level of discomfort. As I got into bed I decided to cover myself in my old blanket, to test if perhaps the added weight of the new blanket might have been the cause for my sudden nightmares. My old struggles of falling asleep returned and I probably lay awake in bed for several hours… “Mom?” She looked over at me again, “What is it darling?” I turned away from her and stared at the trees again, the park seemed so much smaller. “Is Sarah still hiding?” As I turned to face my Mom again I noticed a strange sight, birds in the sky. Now, alright yes, birds would be in the sky and that isn’t strange at all. But these birds weren’t moving. And before you think I meant they were gliding, no, I meant that they were stationary. Not a flap, not a peep, no forward momentum. They just hung in the blue… no, grey sky? My Mom was standing at the edge of the tree line now, facing me. I saw her stretch out her arms to beckon me closer, she shadows of the trees now reaching all the way to my feet where I was sitting on the park bench, I felt something touch my hand and nearly jumped out my skin. I looked down and saw my Dad holding onto my hand, “We should get closer don’t you think, kiddo?” The breathing in my ears started up again, it seemed so calm, too calm. My body stiffened when I attempted to look at my father, stubbornly defying my order to move. A faint panic once again building in my chest as I felt a pressure slowly cover my body. “Dad?” The breathing was once again in my ears, but for the first time I realized… I was holding my breath. “Is that you?” The hand on mine began to lose colour, as it slowly began to resemble the trees that had surrounded us. I could feel the air becoming cold. And the breathing in my ears was becoming louder and more erratic. A raspy voice came from above me, “Let's go play with your Mom and Sarah.” I felt a tug on the arm that was being held and felt my body shoot backwards over the park bench. The figure that had once been my mother was sprinting towards me on all fours-- My eyes opened and I immediately thanked whatever deity was out there, existing or not. I wanted to get out of bed but I felt a weight covering my entire body, as I looked down I saw the weighted blanket covering me once more. With the outline of something sitting on it. The breathing that filled the room was exactly the same as the breathing that had been in my dreams. Still coming from above me. I can’t remember how long it was that I lay there frozen in fear, the presence on my chest just keeping me pinned down. But after my prolonged captivity I felt the weight retreat from me. First the pressure relieved from my chest and then released my limbs as it slithered off the end of my bed. I have been laying in bed now, at least this time I was able to reach for my phone. The tiredness has been hanging over me ever since I woke up, I’ve been typing out what has happened to help me stay awake (yes it is very story like, but forcing myself to edit helped keep me more engaged). It is now 8am, the sun is out and you are probably wondering if I have left my room yet. The answer to that is simple. The breathing is still in my room, I can hear it underneath me.
I'm back again this week with each team's implied point totals for Week 2 based on Vegas oveunder lines. Some changes I've made: per request I have added each team's opponent, and I have added how each team performed in Week 1 compared to their implied point totals. I included this information because I think it is helpful when determining what teams may be over hyped and what teams are being sold short by Vegas lines. It is important to remember that Vegas lines (and therefore implied point totals) are not set based on how some Vegas experts expect teams to perform, but are instead based on what will get the most bets (and therefore the most money for the casinos). I think there is value to be had in remembering this and exploiting it. When looking at making start-sit decisions, I often play the player whose team has the higher implied point total because more points = more opportunities for fantasy points. It's also smart to play defenses that are going against teams with lower implied point totals. My Week 1 post can be found here Anyways, here are this week's numbers:
Team
Implied Point Total
Opponent
Week 1 Result (OveUnder)
Ravens
29
Texans
OVER
Cowboys
28.5
Falcons
UNDER
Buccaneers
28.25
Panthers
OVER
Chiefs
28.25
Chargers
N/A
Packers
28
Lions
OVER
Saints
27.5
Raiders
OVER
Cardinals
27.25
WFT
OVER
Colts
25.75
Vikings
UNDER
Titans
25.75
Jaguars
UNDER
Browns
24.75
Bengals
UNDER
Steelers
24.5
Broncos
EVEN
49ers
24.5
Jets
UNDER
Seahawks
24.5
Patriots
OVER
Falcons
24
Cowboys
OVER
Bears
23.75
Giants
OVER
Bills
23.5
Dolphins
OVER
Rams
23.25
Eagles
UNDER
Vikings
22.75
Colts
OVER
Eagles
22.25
Rams
UNDER
Texans
22
Ravens
N/A
Raiders
22
Saints
OVER
Lions
21.5
Packers
OVER
Patriots
20.5
Seahawks
UNDER
WFT
20.25
Cardinals
OVER
Panthers
19.25
Buccaneers
OVER
Chargers
19.25
Chiefs
UNDER
Bengals
18.75
Browns
UNDER
Giants
18.25
Bears
UNDER
Dolphins
17.5
Bills
UNDER
Jets
17.5
49ers
OVER
Broncos
17
Steelers
UNDER
Jaguars
16.75
Titans
OVER
Things I See I've decided that this week (and potentially going forward) I will include my own observations and analysis from the numbers and how I plan to use this information for fantasy football. I want to emphasize that this is my own personal thinking, and please feel free to use the numbers to come to your own conclusions.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense is being slept on hard. I am a Jaguars fan so this is biased, but the team has been slept on throughout the offseason (by the lowest OveUnder win total set by Vegas at the start of the season) and everyone is assuming they are tanking. This very well may be the case, but the defense is the problem with this team, not the offense. Will they lose a lot of games this year? Yes, but they won't lose them 26-17 - they'll lose them 35-28. Remember that Vegas odds are a reflection of the betting public's perceptions of each game and team - use this to your advantage! Fantasy football players (which I would bet have a decent overlap with the betting public) are likely weary of the Jacksonville offense going forward this year, and I would target Chark in every league (it helps that he is coming off of a lackluster fantasy performance). People think the Jaguar offense is going to be worse than it will actually be, so now is the perfect time to buy Jaguar players for cheap. /rant
The biggest disappointments last week were the Cowboys, Colts, and 49ers. All three teams were in the top 4 in implied point totals, and they all finished UNDER. The Colts took a hit this week (although not by much - they are tied for the 8th highest implied point total) while the Cowboys remain at the top. The 49ers fell all the way to 12th, which looks even worse when you consider they have a cake walk matchup against the Jets. These teams have good matchups again this week, but another UNDER would be troubling. For the Colts, a disappointing week would likely convince the world that they are, at beast, a mediocre offense, spelling doom for the value of their offensive pieces in fantasy. I am looking for the 49ers to smash the OVER this weekend. The team is depleted of its receiving options (especially with Kittle hurt), but I think the Cardinals will be a better defense than people expect and by the end of the year people won't be surprised that the 49ers hit the UNDER in Week 1. Meanwhile, the 49ers still have plenty of talent in the backfield and should be able to go to work against a bad team. The Cowboys have been Vegas' sweethearts going into this year, and I think they will have a longer leash than the Colts and 49ers. But if they have a disappointing week on the scoreboard again, I would start to panic that Dallas isn't the fantasy goldmine that everyone thought it would be going into the year.
The Cardinals are my bet to finish the year as the best fantasy offense. In a tough matchup last week, they surpassed their implied point total of 20.5 with a 24 point game. Although this isn't much on paper, the Cardinals looked good doing it. Now, they have what should be an easy matchup against the one and only Football team, and find themselves with the 7th highest implied point total of the week. I expect them to go OVER, and I think we will find them near the top of this list every week for the rest of the season. I'm looking to lock down deeper pieces in the Cardinals offense with hopes that they'll become fantasy relevant - the rising tide lifts all boats, yada yada.
After last season/the Bears loss/the Packers loss, it’s become clear to all of us that the 2020 Lions are a completely unsalvageable pit of despair from which there is no escape. Patricia should have been fired at the 50 yard line of Lambeau and then beheaded for his crimes against humanity. Quin should be exiled from the land by a pack of ravenous hounds that chase him back east across Lake Huron. Hopefully Stafford can catch a ride on a ship to the Undying Lands and get a fat contract from a QB-needy team before he retires. Killing Barry and Calvin AND Stafford is more than I can handle as a fan, let somebody be happy for the love of god. That said, what to do for the rest of the 2020 season? Time to pick a team to bandwagon! It’s important to pick a good bandwagon team now if you want to have a chance at riding another team’s coattails all the way to the playoffs. Let’s go through the list (by last week’s power ranking) and discuss. The Top 5 Here’s where you go for your best bet at sure-fire contenders. This section is for bandwagoners who want to see their team go to the Super Bowl in order to get some semblance of the shine of the Lombardi trophy on your face, even if you know in your heart you cheated to get there by becoming an imposter in the fanbase of a foreign team from foreign lands.
Chiefs – Last year’s super bowl winners with the new hotness Patrick Mahomes at QB and lovable BBQ-eating Andy Reid at HC, plus Travis Kelce. Historic underdogs finally having their moment in the sun is a perfect fit for a Lions fan to root for. This is bandwagoning on easy mode, the clear pick in my opinion. Number one in the rankings, number one in my cold dead 2020 heart.
Ravens – The only better pick than the Chiefs is the Ravens. Lamar Jackson playing QB is probably the most fun thing you can watch on television right now period. I bandwagoned the Ravens all through last season while dreaming that Stafford’s back healing up might make a difference in 2020 (oh how young and naïve I was) and it was a great time! They imploded a little bit in the playoffs but hey, this could be their year!
Seahawks – This is a nice pick for some history, familiarity, and stability. The Seahawks are always in it as long as they have Russ and Pete Carroll, and last night we watched them go 2-0 against the Pats in a serious nail-biter finish. You know you’re at least going on a deep playoff run if you bandwagon the Seahawks.
Saints – Watching Brees continue to cement himself as a top all-time QB, potentially in his final year, with an actual defense, Michael Thomas, and Kamara? It’s sure to be a fun ride! Plus, the Saints are another team that knows a lot about long droughts of success, hanging around the bottom of the league, kicked while they’re down, nobody ever believing in them. They’re soul mates in pain, and it’s fun to watch those teams succeed.
Packers – No. Never.
The Middle of the Pack So you’re not looking for a sure thing, you’re interested in a bumpier bandwagon ride. The middle of the pack of is for you! These teams will have ups and they’ll have downs, and if they make it to the Super Bowl, or even the deep playoffs, the victory will be all the sweeter.
49ers – After Sunday I believe every single player on the 49ers has a torn ACL or something like that, but hey, they made it to the SB last year and they could do it again! 49ers are historic and who doesn’t like to root for a classic franchise?
Bills – A true sister-ship team of the Lions. Forever frustrated and disappointed fans now getting their chance to root for a QB who throws over 400. I like Josh Allen because to hear his bio it really sounds like he just found himself in the NFL by accident and is somehow pulling it off. Plus now he’s got Stefon Diggs, who is no longer our divisional problem. Classic underdog pick, go Bills.
Steelers – Roethlisberger is back, JuJu is great, and the Steelers are always in it. If you want that authentic “we’re more blue collar than you” experience, Steelers are a solid pick. Bonus: revisit the days of Ebron and watch him brick-hand pass after pass, and feel some semblance of relief that out of all the problems the Lions have this year, he’s not one of them.
Titans – A great pick for the Lions fan who wants a long-shot with good odds. If Tannehill keeps his breakout alive and Derrick Henry keeps trucking people, they’re a tough team to stop. Plus now they have Clowney (how could Patricia not go after Clowney Jesus Christ are you kidding me he had a chance to grab an elite DE in free agency and shore up in pathetic pass rushers and we didn’t even hear about him trying to land him how fucking pathetic can you believe this guy… wait no don’t think about that!) Titans are a sleeper for the SB and I think they’ll continue to surprise everybody this year.
Patriots – No Brady, no problem. Patriots still look great as always, plus Cam Newton is way more fun to root for than Brady ever was. Watch Belichik potentially use his evil powers for good and get Cam a ring. Patriots can feel dirty to root for but it’s also like eating a whole chocolate cake after you’ve been on a years-long diet. Sometimes it feels good just to give in.
Rams – This is the team you want to root for if you’re a big NFL conspiracy theorist and think hidden capitalists are pulling the strings behind the scenes to rig games. “The NFL wants LA to succeed because it’s a huge and largely untapped market of a city. For that to work, either the Rams or the Chargers have to go deep every year until LA is turning out their pockets for that sweet football merch.” Maybe it’s true, maybe not, maybe who cares! Also a great team to watch if you want to see Aaron Donald wreck people every single play. Remember, Donald could have been ours but instead we drafted Ebron. I’m just kidding, I know you didn’t forget. How could you?
Cardinals – Kyler “Calamari” Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald pulling this team out of the depths and into something respectable would be a fun ride to watch. Another franchise with historic pain, a dark horse long-shot, it speaks to my Detroit-hardened heart.
Cowboys – Rooting Cowboys is like going after the dumb hot girl. She’s not going to amount to much but she sure does get a lot of attention. If you want to watch a lot of primetime games and hear about your bandwagon team in sports media constantly, may as well pick the Boys. Win, lose or draw, for some reason we all have to talk about them all the time. Also, it’s fun to root for Kellen Moore, and it’s fun to watch Zeke be a wrecking ball. Successful run game teams actually exist!
Vikings – Ew. I guess. Kirk Cousins can play football and Dalvin Cook is a running back. Riley Reiff used to live here. Kyle Rudolph has a fun name if you’re a big Christmas person. I don’t know. This seems like a pointless bandwagon unless you really like the color purple.
Buccaneers – Never count Brady out. Love him or hate him (hate him) Brady is historic and worth watching. If you want to watch Belichick-less Brady in his final year(s), reunited with Gronkowski, tearing up the ground with Fournette, this is a solid band wagon pick.
Texans – Another great fit for the Lions: watch an incredibly talented QB get hamstrung by his incompetent coaching staff and wasted in his scheme, all while his good-on-paper defense continues to let him down on the field. JJ Watt is still fun to watch, and moreso if you close your eyes and pretend is 2013 and we all still love him.
The Bottom Half Bandwagoning to win is for pussies, you’re here to bandwagon a team that is either an extra-super long-shot, or another team with no chance to pair with your Lions heartbreak. You sick son of a bitch, I respect it, but I don’t think it’s good for you.
Eagles – Good pick for It’s Always Sunny fans who want to root for Jim Schwartz.
Raiders – Cool uniforms, cool fans, another chance at an NFL conspiracy team due to the move to Vegas
Falcons – If you can’t watch Stafford succeed, you may as well watch his buddy Matt Ryan also not succeed.
Bears – Chicago is cool and nearby, and the Bears haven’t been successful in a long time, so it doesn’t feel completely gross. Any win they can get with Trubisky at the helm they damn sure deserve.
Chargers – Actually looked legit good against the Chiefs with their new QB Justin Herbert, plus you got Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram on defense. This is probably as far down the list as you can go and find an actual contender. This is your longest long shot for the true masochist who still wants hope involved.
Broncos – Good pick for big South Park fans. Also I guess if you’re still high on Von Miller.
Colts – Their colors are similar to ours and Indiana is pretty close. This strikes me as a particularly hopeless bandwagon pick, but they do have a running back, which could be fun to watch.
Jaguars – Minshew Mania makes this a solid pick. Plus it’s another cat team.
Washington – Chase Young, oh what could have been.
Lions – "Bandwagon? Bandwagon?! We don't need no stinking bandwagon!" Ride or die motherfucker, it's Lions Only for your fandom. You're a captain going down with the ship, you're gonna sit here and watch Patricia waste another year of Stafford's career, fail at the run game, fail to adjust, fail on defense, fail at everything all season long. Because when we go 0-16 again, you'll be able to look back and say you were there. You'll bear witness to our heroic Tank for Trevor Lawrence, and the pride that comes before the fall of the house of Quintricia. And when we see flashes of greatness from Stafford, 100 yard rushers from AD, interceptions from Okudah, and long-yard FGs from Prater, you'll be there to cheer on the Lions as always. Win or lose, rain or shine, Detroit vs. Everybody.
Bengals – Root for Joe Burrow. Plus it’s another cat team.
Panthers – Blue cat team.
Dolphins – Tank for Tua actually happened and honestly good for them. Plus a little dose of Fitzmagic in your life.
Giants – Daniel Jones is an Eli clone and honestly that kind of science should be studied. Might be worth checking out.
Browns – Great pick if you’re done with the Lions but don’t want to improve through bandwagoning in any way shape or form. A true historic and present lateral move, a decision forged in Midwest hopelessness and gallons of beer. Godspeed to anyone choosing to bandwagon the Browns this season.
Jets – The "just let the pain flow through me" option.
Comments analysis after 24 hours The names I'm seeing the most after 24 hours and 48 comments are Seattle, Buffalo, Arizona, and Chargers. So 3 outta 4 you guys are goddamn gluttons for punishment! Lions fans through and through, you won't even bandwagon a sure thing, it's gotta be a long-shot underdog story of a long-suffering franchise that MIGHT have some success this year. Goddamn, never change guys.
Looking to take each bet for up to 5oz generic unless otherwise stated: Cardinals -3 vs Panthers Cowboys -3.5 vs Browns (2oz with Lexicaltesticle, 3oz open) Texans -3.5 vs Vikings Seahawks -5.5 vs Dolphins Ravens -14.5 vs Washington Ravens ML vs Washington, my 30oz vs your 4oz(Taken by Addictedtocoins) Rams ML vs Giants, my 30oz vs your 4oz Chicago +3 vs Colts(5oz withNoSilverWorries1) If a game is cancelled or delayed due to Covid-19, these bets will be cancelled pending a new betting line.
Studs & Duds: NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football Predictions
Originally posted here: https://optimaldfs.blogspot.com/2020/09/studs-duds-nfl-week-2-fantasy-football.html Every NFL week, we'll go game by game and name a Stud and a Dud for each contest. Studs and duds are relative to their consensus rankings and salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel. Meaning the Stud will not always be the player I expect to have the most fantasy points for a given game and the Dud will not always be a player I expect to get zero snaps. Editor's Note:Optimal DFSis the #1 app for building fantasy lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel in Apple's App Store.Download Optimal DFS in the App Storeto build customized optimized lineups and get breaking news before everyone else in your league.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Stud: Joe Mixon
The usage was there for Joe Mixon in Week 1. 19 rush attempts and 2 targets. Unfortunately for him, the game script was garbage. That will not be the case in Cleveland. I see them moving the ball down the field on the back of Mixon Week 2. He also has Joe Burrow who looked impressive for a rookie QB with no preseason action.
Dud: Odell Beckham, Jr.
There is still time to fade OBJ and be contrarian. People are going to look at his 10 targets from Week 1 and see potential, but it will end in frustration. There is zero chemistry between Baker and Beckham. I'm avoiding him in Week 2 even with his embarrassingly low salary on DK and FD.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Stud: Allen Robinson
Mitchell Trubisky attempted 36 passes and targeted 11 different receivers in Week 1. Allen Robinson scooped up 9 of those targets for 5 receptions and 74 yards. He's the best offensive talent the Bears have and I'm expecting more looks to go his way Week 2. I'll be surprised if he doesn't score a TD against the Giants.
Dud: Saquon Barkley
Saquan Barkley is an incredible talent, but he has not been living up to expectations. In Week 1 against the Steelers, he started the game with 8 rushes for -8 yards. 8 rushes for -8 yards. Figured I'd write it a 2nd time to let it sink because I had to check multiple sources to confirm that stat. He's really good, but his consensus ranking is higher than his production. The Giants offensive line needs help.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Stud: Calvin Ridley
Which Atlanta Falcon WR had 9 receptions on 12 targets in Week 1? All of them, essentially... Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage all had 9 receptions and 12 targets! However, Ridley was the only player to score a TD and did so twice. There is potential in this game for another shootout. I'm a big fan of Ridley season long and love him Week 2.
Dud: Russell Gage
Yes, Gage is coming off a 12 tgt / 9 rec / 114 yrd showing. Although I think we're going to see another shootout here for the Falcons, I'm selling that he sees the same volume Week 2.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Stud: Davante Adams
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams tore up the Minnesota Vikings defense. An absolute monster game for Adams tallying up 17 targets, 14 receptions, 156 yards, and 2 TDs. Aaron Rodgers looked as crisp as ever and Davante Adams will continue to benefit.
Dud: TJ Hockenson
I had high hopes for TJ Hockenson Week 1. Especially with Kenny Golladay out. 5 target, 5 receptions, 56 yards, and 1 TD. It's a good game on paper, but it felt to me like this was TJ's ceiling. I worry he's shaping up to be a touchdown-dependent TE start week in and week out. The targets went to the WRs Quintez Cephus (10), Marvin Jones Jr. (8), and Danny Amendola (7).
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts
Stud: Jonathan Taylor
I was a seller on Jonathan Taylor coming into Week 1. I wasn't buying that he won the starting job from Marlon Mack, which did appear to be the case. Now that Mack is out with a torn Achilles, the backfield will be in the hands of Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor. Hines made the noise with 2 TDs, but they both got a lot of play. 9 carries and 6 targets for Jonathan Taylor and 7 carries and 8 targets for Nyheim Hines. I like both of them, but coming into Week 2 I like Taylor as the higher value play. Phil Rivers is truly proving to be Captain Dump-off. Bold prediction: Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor can turn out to be this year's Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon.
Dud: TY Hilton
The targets were there for TY Hilton, but he didn't do much with them. 9 targets, 4 receptions, and 53 yards for TY. I'm staying away from him until I see a little bit of chemistry with Captain Dump-off.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Stud: John Brown
John Brown is always overlooked and consistently produces. The new addition of Stefon Diggs to the receiving core added to the low valuation of John Brown. I see Diggs and Brown as 1A and 1B options for Josh Allen. 10 targets, 6 receptions, 70 yards, and 1 TD for John Brown in Week 1. He was wide open for a 2nd TD, but Josh Allen spazzed and could not hit him. Josh Allen did look good outside of that 1 pass and both fumbles.
Dud: Ryan Fitzpatrick
0 TDs and 3 INTs for Fitzmagic in Week 1 against the Patriots. The Pats are the Pats, but the Bills defense is pretty good too. A hammy issue for DeVante Parker isn't helping his cause. I'm waiting for the "Tuaaaaaa" chants before I take a chance on Fitz. He's always good to muddy the waters with a good game as soon as he's counted out.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets
Stud: Raheem Mostert
He's the best talent in the 49ers backfield and it's NOT EVEN CLOSE. The 49ers rode him through the playoffs and will continue to do so this season. He has the possibility for multi-touchdown 150+ all-purpose yardage week in and week out.
Dud: Jimmy Garoppolo
I like Jimmy G in general, but I think the 49ers run away with this one and don't have a need to pass the rock. He'll have to get his in during the 1st half if he wants to have any fantasy value.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Stud: Jared Goff
This one is going to be a beat down and Jared Goff is going to be the benefactor. I see him spreading the football around and tallying up 3+ TD. Dwayne Haskins Jr. had what I consider to be a good game last week against the Eagles (for him). A win and 0 INT. This should be a piece of cake for the Rams and Goff.
Dud: Carson Wentz
The Los Angeles Rams just held Dak Prescott in check. This isn't going to go well for Carson Wentz. He's coming off of a 2 pick game against the Washington Football Team. The jury is still out if Washington's DEF is good or if the Eagles offense made them look good. Week 2 should shed some light on the answer.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Stud: Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben was doing Big Ben things on MNF. He looks fully recovered from his surgery and has a lot of weapons to throw to. JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald, and Diontae Johnson. Good luck picking the WRs/TEs that will hit... Put Roethlisberger in your Week 2 lineup with confidence.
Dud: James Conner
I liked James Conner coming into the season and tried to steal him (unsuccessfully) in my draft. Turns out I'm happy I didn't get him. He looks stuck in the mud and now has an ankle injury he's nursing. Benny Snell looks Jr. spry. I'd think twice about firing him up in your Week 2 lineups against the Broncos if he gets clearance to play on the ankle.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stud: Christian McCaffrey
Alvin Kamara just ripped the Bucs for 2 TDs (should've been 3) in Week 1. Christian McCaffrey is prime for a monster game here. Anything less than triple-digit yardage and multiple TDs is a letdown.
Dud: Rob Gronkowski
This is a crowded receiving core in Tampa Bay. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, OJ Howard, Cameron Brate, and Rob Gronkowski. The chemistry between Brady and Gronk I'm sure is still there, but OJ Howard is the youngefresher talent. I liked him to lead Buc's TEs season long before Week 1. Week 1 that proved to be the case and I think the pattern continues.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Stud: Derrick Henry
He's unstoppable and Vrabel knows how to use him. The Titans are going to control this game on the ground. No TDs Week 1 was disappointing, but he'll get in the endzone in Week 2.
Dud: Gardner Minshew II
I caught a case of Minshew Mania, so it pains me to mark him as a Dud, but it's going to be extremely difficult to maintain his Week 1 efficiency. 19 completions on 20 attempts with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. With little help in the backfield, Minshew will most likely struggle to move the ball Week 2 against the Titans defense.
Washington Football Team at Arizona Cardinals
Stud: Washington DEF
I'm a buyer of this Washington defense. Chase Young came out of the gates hot Week 1 and lead The Football Team to a big win. I'm not expecting Washington to shut down the Cardinals, but I am expecting them to keep this game close and cover the 6.5 point Vegas spread.
Dud: Antonio Gibson
Later this season Antonio Gibson will be the guy, but Washington isn't ready to give him that role yet. I fired up Antonio Gibson Week 1 in my 14-team season-long league after Miles Sanders was ruled out. It started off promising as he was getting the early work. Then after 1 goalline series, it all went downhill. Gibson got stuffed on the 1st goalline carry. In came Peyton Barber who eventually pooonded it in. Barber finished with 2 TDs and appeared to the main RB for the latter half of the game. Barber is the safer play heading into Week 2.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Stud: Marquise Brown
This game will be a little more competitive for the Baltimore Ravens compared to their Week 1 beatdown on the miz Cleveland Browns. Lamar Jackson only had to throw the ball 25 times, but Hollywood Brown was still able to tally 6 targets, 5 receptions, and 101 yards. Mark Andrews and Willie Snead took the 3 TDs thrown. I'm expecting a big week from Brown here in Week 2.
Dud: JK Dobbins
A lot of excitement after Week 1 for season-long JK Dobbins. Yours truly is a Dobbins owner. Unfortunately for me, I only felt pain Week 1 because I am also a Mark Ingram owner and had Ingram locked in as the starter. 4 total TDs vultured from my Week 1 starters Mark Ingram and Antonio Gibson. Dobbins is the future for the Ravens, but I think his 2 TDs were flukey in this blowout game. When push comes to shove I'm betting on Ingram over Dobbins and will keep Ingram in my Week 2 lineup.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Stud: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
CEH is a lethal weapon for the Chiefs and they know it. He put up big fantasy points in the opener without catching a pass and while getting stopped multiple times on the goalline. I'm not worried about his goalline abilities. Week 2 he'll continue to smash. It'll be tough to compete with McCaffrey season-long, but I can see CEH as the #2 overall RB when it's all said and done.
Dud: Austin Ekeler
The fantasy world is panicking about Austin Ekeler's usage in the passing game Week 1. He only saw a single target. He did have a respectable game on the ground picking up 84 yards on 19 carries. I am indeed pressing the panic button as well. Austin Ekeler is not a ground and pound RB. He's a scatback and Captain Dump-off is no longer in town. Maybe things change when Justin Herbert inevitably takes control. We're looking at a lot of 3 and outs with Tyrod trying to force the ball down the field as the Chargers play from behind in this one.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Stud: Julian Edelman
Cam Newton only threw 19 passes Week 1. Julian Edelman was targeted on 37% of those pass attempts and put together an OK game in PPR. He was also used once on a successful end-around. The game script Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks will be different and the Patriots will need to pass to keep up.
Dud: Sony Michel
(See thoughts above on Julian Edelman). The Patriots came in against the Dolphins wanting to pooond the rock. And Sony Michel was still lackluster. He had a fantasy saving TD, but only registered 10 carries for 37 yards. This is a low-floor low-ceiling touchdown-dependent situation for Michel.
New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders
Stud: Latavius Murray
Alvin Kamara stole all the TDs, but Latavius Murray lead the team in carries Week 1. 15 carries for Murray compared to 12 for Kamara. The game script here calls for a Saints blowout. I'm expecting Latavius Murray to put the finishing touches on this one with a lot of pooonding the rock in the 2nd half.
Dud: Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs is no dud, but his Week 1 numbers are going to be hard to replicate. Especially against a New Orleans Saints team that held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to under 100 yards rushing and only 1 rushing TD (Tom Brady). I see the Raiders playing from behind in this one making it difficult for Jacobs to perform for fantasy purposes. Editor's Note:Optimal DFSis not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this application or blog. Optimal DFS cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our application or blog.
Those of you that have seen my posts, I have been one of the few optimists in this sub. However, no more. I posted last week about how all the stars aligned for this game to be a win. A slew (who says slew anymore by the way?) of key SF guys out and their backups vs majority of our starters. Steelers wrote the blueprint in the 2nd half on how to beat us with crossing patterns, but giants coaches did nothing to work on that in the 2 weeks before this game (chicago apparently didn't do much of this). Jones appears to have regressed. I get that our line sucks, but the coaches, once again, have done nothing to help jones move out of the pocket, bide more time, provide misdirection against the defense in order to keep the linebackers off the line, etc etc etc. There was one drive in particular that I absolutely hated...it was proof that the coaches were 'not thinking ahead'. We had a 3rd and 7 around the 37-40 yard line. Yes it was in the 1st half, but with every point counting (our last 3 coaches don't seem to understand we need TD's over field goals every chance we can), we did not plan our 3rd down to try to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-8 yards, but instead threw a deep pass that went incomplete....So instead of a 1st down, or at least 4th and 1 or 2 that is in the range of going for it given the location on the field, we were forced to kick a field goal. That goes along the lines of the steeler game where we were inside the 5 yd line and 'settled' for 3 points. The coaches need to check their ego at the door...we are NOT THAT GOOD. Every drive that can be a TD with some thought should be considered. Whereas SF players KNEW they had to step up and play harder given starters were out, I think both players and coaches had it in their heads that they would be 'winning this game'. And ss the game slowly started pulling away, there were NO in game changes. There was a great potential naked bootleg play where Jones handed the ball off and ran to the right...there was literally nobody over there if Jones kept the ball to either run himself or throw downfield...yet we continued to insist to keep him in the pocket and stationary for the backup line to pressure and disrupt him like we were a pee wee football team. While I'm done putting my heart into it (and betting on them), I'll hold out one more week (although the rams look pretty good), the only positive thought that remains is that as bad as the giants look, and even if they lose next week, they have all 3 division opponents over the following 3 weeks...therefore, if the giants even lost to the rams, but beat all 3 division opponents, they'd be 3-4 and very possibly around the top of the NFC East (Cowboys have the Browns, Giants, Cardinals and Washington the next 4 games...a lot of winnable games but seeing how the cowboys screw things up, they may only win 2 of them putting them at 3-4, Washington has ravens, rams giants and cowboys, which I would only see them winning 0-1 maybe of those games (that's assuming the giants beat them) putting them at 2-5, and Philly has 49ers, steelers, ravens and cowboys (sheesh, that likely makes them 0-6 heading into our game). So the only real hope is that the giants win the division games to go 3-4, and likely be tied with the cowboys at that time....sheesh this division is bad.
Value Stack of the Week - Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) and DeVante Parker ($5,700) - Seattle may be firing on all cylinders offensively, but their secondary looks like straight-up Swiss cheese through the first three weeks of NFL action, allowing over 430 passing yards per game while being the most generous defense to both the QB and WR positions. I wouldn't be surprised if this stack helped win someone the Milly Maker this week. Value plays to me consist of any QB $6,000 and below, any position player at $5,000 or below, and any defense at $3,000 or below. I slightly adjust these scales based on the slate, as prices jumps can effect who is considered value and who isn't. QB • Matthew Stafford ($5,900) vs. NO: Stafford has been fairly consistent through three straight games, and I believe the return of Kenny Golladay ($6,000) last week will be a boost for the gunslinger going forward. New Orleans has talent on defense but hasn't translated that into much outside of Week 1's win over the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers - the Saints have four sacks and a fumble recovery over the last two weeks. This trend bodes well for Stafford, who should be comfortable throwing the ball to Golladay as well as options like T.J. Hockenson ($4,800) and Marvin Jones Jr. ($4,900) after coming off a narrow win over the high-flying Cardinals last week. We haven't seen tremendous upside with Stafford yet, as he hasn't posted 20+ DKFP in a game thus far, but he's a solid-floor option with a potential to hit big in what could be a shootout (NO has allowed 30+ points in the last two weeks). • Baker Mayfield ($5,800) @ DAL: Okay, I know thus far Baker's been below average from a fantasy standpoint (averaging 13.8 DKFP/game), but he's faced three straight defenses that do well against the pass - not to mention the Browns are a run-first team, running 53% of the time with Nick Chubb ($7,000) and Kareem Hunt ($6,200, groin), but keep in mind Dallas' secondary is one of the kindest to opposing QBs, with only the Seahawks being less threatening. With Dallas notching two turnovers in their first three games as well as a potential for Hunt to miss this game with his groin injury, I think Mayfield could do well stacked with Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800) in this one. Mayfield attempted just 23 passes in each of his last two games, but that trend has a high chance of ending in a back-and-forth scenario with the Cowboys. • Nick Foles ($5,700) vs. IND: Yes, the Colts' defense has looked astounding over their first three games, but to be fair, they played Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold in their last two. Nick Foles is not the kind of guy to lean on long-term, however there's value in playing him on a slate with a bunch of stud options and other appealing value plays. Foles' connection with Allen Robinson II ($6,700) in the 30-26 comeback win over Atlanta was a good start to his tenure with Chicago. I'm not expecting the Colts to get stomped obviously, but Foles could make this a much more interesting game than the numbers let on. With complementary options like Anthony Miller ($4,900), Jimmy Graham ($3,800) and Darnell Mooney ($3,000), Foles has a chance to make the Colts' defense look less superhuman than they've been over the start of the 2020 season. Keep Foles in your player pool, even if you're personally skeptical. • Derek Carr ($5,300) vs. BUF: Carr has been, for the most part, solid in his first three weeks, completing 74% of his passes while throwing for a 6:0 TD:INT ratio and at least over 200 yards per week, though he has fumbled three times in his last two games. His salary has dropped little by little each week, and Buffalo just got gashed by the Rams' offense. The Raiders' receiving corps is banged up, with Henry Ruggs III ($4,800, hamstring) possibly not playing and Bryan Edwards ($3,300, ankle) is also trending in the wrong direction. But don't let that discourage you from playing Carr, who will still have Darren Waller ($5,200!!!) as well as Hunter Renfrow ($4,600) and other veteran options like Nelson Agholor ($3,500) and Zay Jones ($3,000) to lean on in the passing game. Buffalo has good talent on defense but has allowed 60 points and two 300+ yard, 2 TD performers in their last two weeks. RB • Myles Gaskin ($5,000) vs. SEA: Gaskin has 12 targets out of the backfield in his last two games and has appeal in the passing game despite Seattle's stinginess against RBs (the Seahawks allow the 6th-fewest DKFP to the position). Playing Gaskin in the hopes that he sees the end zone to cap off an otherwise-decent stat line isn't the worst bet you can make this week. Gaskin hasn't scored yet but this is a decent matchup for him to do so... just as long as Jordan Howard ($4,100) doesn't poach ANOTHER goal line score. • J.K. Dobbins ($4,800) @ WAS: His limited opportunities make him a huge risk for fantasy, but there's a large chance Baltimore gets ahead early over the Football Team - in that scenario, Dobbins is likely to see extra work, which could translate to the fantasy scoreboard. Dobbins may not be a top value option, but keep him on your radar as he's an explosive talent who could start seeing more touches if he can maximize his opportunities this week. • Ronald Jones II ($4,700) vs. LAC: Let me preface this by saying RoJo is not in an ideal situation in a crowded backfield with LeSean McCoy ($4,000) and Leonard Fournette ($5,600, ankle), though the injury to the latter caused him to miss practice Wednesday and has a chance to effect his availability against the Chargers. RoJo has seen consistent usage in the offense, and just saw 17 touches against the Broncos. Averaging 10.1 DKFP/game, RoJo is a TD-dependent option on a team that will not have Chris Godwin (hamstring) and has a banged up backup option in Scotty Miller ($4,100, hip/groin). Tom Brady ($6,100) has thrown 35+ times in each game thus far, but RoJo may be leaned on a bit more than normal with Godwin on the sideline. • Chris Thompson ($4,100) @ CIN: James Robinson ($6,500) is the king of this backfield, and make no mistake about that. But that doesn't mean Thompson doesn't get any looks - with 10 targets over his past two games, Thompson sees opportunity in the passing game, though not a whole lot. You're banking on a TD from the veteran scat back, but Cincy is kind to RBs, allowing over 180 YPG on the ground (31st in the NFL) while also allowing the 27th-most DKFP to RBs. Cincy's defense isn't good, so I expect them to get gashed by Robinson and Thompson whenever either is on the field. WR • Darius Slayton ($5,000) @ LAR: Some of us probably jumped on Slayton against the banged-up 49ers defense, but we didn't think Daniel Jones ($5,100) would be so bad. The Giants will certainly be playing catchup in this contest as well, so hopefully Slayton continues to see 5+ targets as the Rams have been fairly middle-of-the-pack against the WR position, though they allow over 250 passing YPG (21st in the NFL). Nothing astounding, but opportunity is still there for Slayton with no Saquon Barkley or Sterling Shepard for New York. Slayton's very boom or bust, but could be a solid GPP play, as his Week 1 stat line (6-102-2 on 9 targets) vs. Pittsburgh shows that he's capable of being a producer if given opportunities down the field. Assume Jones will rebound a bit here against the Rams and Slayton can reap the benefits. Golden Tate ($4,600) is a high-floor option for the Giants offense due to Shepard's absence, but Slayton has more upside. • Randall Cobb ($4,800) vs. MIN: Just 10 targets in his last two games, but Deshaun Watson ($6,600) has been hitting him for big gains (Cobb had a 4-95-1 line @ PIT last week). Watson is bound to throw more than 30 times against the Vikings' subpar secondary that allows 292 YPG through the air, and while Will Fuller ($5,900) will see his targets, Cobb is a solid complementary option that's hitting his stride at the right time. • Cole Beasley ($4,700) @ LV: Fellow Bill John Brown ($5,100, calf) is looking like he'll play, but Beasley sees solid usage as the slot in Buffalo (20 targets over his first three games), which I think can translate well with the Raiders needing to be focused on containing QB Josh Allen ($7,300) as well as star receiver Stefon Diggs ($6,800). The Raiders have been stingy against WRs, but keep in mind they've played the Saints without Michael Thomas and the Patriots, who rammed the ball down the Raiders' throats. Worth putting in lineups despite an okay matchup on paper. • Hunter Renfrow ($4,600) vs. BUF: No Ruggs or Edwards here, so I love Renfrow at this price and in this matchup. Really don't need to explain this one that much. • Tee Higgins ($4,500) vs. JAX: Just caught 2 TDs, and I think it's a sign of things to come. The Jaguars are fairly decent defensively, but also have to cover A.J. Green ($5,500) as well as Tyler Boyd ($6,100). Obviously recency bias makes Higgins more intriguing than he'll likely be for Week 4, but he's worth slotting in to the occasional lineup in the hope of a repeat performance - plus, a rookie WR getting 9 targets in a game is a good sign, even if said game went into OT. • Mecole Hardman ($4,300) vs. NE: New England has an elite corner in Stephon Gilmore, but speedy receivers are king against the Patriots' defense. The way I see it - Tyreek Hill ($6,900) will likely see plenty of double coverage (over-top from Devin McCourty), while Travis Kelce sees similar treatment - if Gilmore shadows Sammy Watkins ($4,400) to take him out of the game, that leaves Hardman as the sort-of odd man out - someone likely to be forgotten about by the notorious game-planning of Bill Belichick. Will that translate into a HUGE game for Hardman? Likely not, but I think he could have a long TD - which is enough to warrant playing, especially at $4,300. • Justin Watson ($3,400) vs. LAC: Okay, no Chris Godwin (hamstring), and Scotty Miller (hip/groin) has missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday. Makes Watson's outlook fairly decent, even against a tough Chargers' defense. While Mike Evans ($6,400), Rob Gronkowski ($3,600) and O.J. Howard ($3,300) will see their targets, Watson's got a nice projected volume heading into Sunday. TE • T.J. Hockenson ($4,800) vs. NO: Saints haven't handled TEs well, allowing TDs to O.J. Howard and Darren Waller, with the latter piling up 105 yards on 12 receptions. While Hockenson is not on the same level as Waller, the former is headed for a good line on Sunday if he sees a similar workload to the 7 targets he saw against Arizona, especially with Kenny Golladay ($6,000) active. • Hunter Henry ($4,600) @ TB: Sees too many targets to not be in your player pool (23 over his first three games). Henry is talented enough to consistently be in the top tier of the TE position, and is averaging 12.2 DKFP despite the Chargers 1-2 record. With at least 5 receptions and 50+ yards in each game thus far, Henry's a safe floor option who may not have the best matchup at Tampa Bay, but just needs to find the end zone to become an elite option on the slate. • Dalton Schultz ($4,300) vs. CLE: 16 targets over the last two games tells me that Schultz will be relevant as the top TE for the Cowboys (get well, Blake Jarwin!). Cleveland does not defend TEs well, so I'm hoping we get another solid outing from Schultz as Dak Prescott ($7,200) looks to sling the ball around following a tough loss to the Seahawks last week. • Jimmy Graham ($3,800) vs. IND: Some recency bias here with his 2 TD performance against the Falcons, but Graham should become a more fantasy-relevant option with Foles under center. Don't necessarily expect 10 targets a game, but Graham is still a legitimate red zone threat, and you saw what I mentioned earlier about the Colts defense and their matchups of late. Don't fade Graham just because the matchup makes his outlook worse than it really is. • Rob Gronkowski ($3,600 vs. LAC: Like I said earlier about Watson, Gronk can also benefit from no Godwin or potentially Miller. Gronk's snap count has continued to increase, and while I don't love the matchup vs. LAC per se, I do like Gronk's chances of nabbing a red zone score at some point. Gronk and O.J. Howard ($3,300) are worth looks as cheap options at the TE position. D/ST • Chargers ($2,900) @ TB: Not much value as far as defenses go this week - the best options are certainly at the top. That being said, there's a possibility the Chargers' pass rush makes life difficult for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, which is why I like their floor this week. I know the Bucs have plenty of offensive weapons and will likely score 20+ points, but you can hope for 3+ sacks and maybe a turnover or two from this Charger defense, which would be a solid outing considering the opponent. Keep in mind LAC kept the Chiefs to 23 points in Week 2, which is the most they've allowed to an opponent thus far. • Panthers ($2,700) vs. ARI: This one revolves a bit more around recency bias, as the Panthers made life difficult for Justin Herbert ($5,800) and the Chargers last week with 4 turnovers (1 INT/3 FR) and sacked Herbert twice. Kyler Murray ($7,000) and the Cardinals will be a tougher offensive opponent, and Murray's elusiveness makes the Panthers' floor a bit volatile, but I think they're good for a solid 4-5 DKFP at least - which is decent at their sub-$3,000 price point. Who are you targeting for Week 4? Let's talk about the slate below!
NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them. Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now. https://preview.redd.it/rs90lt6ckf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddfc8945862472b52b5ef8c69076acde904c44c
1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other. Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league. Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020. https://preview.redd.it/anrr9erfkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5655b4452baff2691a0e060e8d70918d58801a4c
2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough. Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive. Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark. https://preview.redd.it/7ivo914ikf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d029ddd274b78e78f5bc932d00086b8c697a466e
3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game. Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams. Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here. https://preview.redd.it/nme3explkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3998c6026125c1b9b48438e3fc9afaf9601b116e
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room. Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy. Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division. https://preview.redd.it/rywropjokf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed77a7303af810b862abb2100c4f0b86841a2d38
5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game. Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you. Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently. https://preview.redd.it/szpawv9rkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ca5fe882d8155d83eb3328e9bf1f1681a17384
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November. Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period. Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now. https://preview.redd.it/5myv276vkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fb25f47d0759e9b5a07876ea01787898c6cc817
7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7. Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season. Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center. https://preview.redd.it/y7agj2n2lf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=221af0a1f689d3b19d5e250fac0b58a35877edad
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates. Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year. Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air. If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
Cardinals at Giants Betting Odds. Point Spread: Cardinals +3 Total Points: 49 Money Line: Giants -157; Cardinals +138. Records. Overall 2019: Cardinals 2-3-1; Giants 2-4 ATS 2019: Cardinals 4-2; Giants 2-4 O/U 2019: Cardinals 4-2; Giants 3-3. Notable Prop Bets. Cardinals Total Touchdowns - Over 2.5 +100, Under 2.5 -130 Giants Total Points ... 2020 New York Giants Season Betting Info. No. 6 overall in the first-round 2020 NFL Draft, the Giants have a chance at drafting their franchise-star player. However, a team that needs, at the very least, a few different positions to make an impact this year, will have to think hard about who they need to bring on. Week 5 odds, picks: Cowboys line drops vs. Giants plus more reactions based on Week 4 performances Check out how the Week 5 lines have changed based on what happened in Week 4 By Jordan Dajani Giants 27, Cardinals 21. Moneyline . The GIANTS are a reasonable -154 on the moneyline. Exploit the value before the weekend in case the line drops. Against the Spread . The Giants -2.5 (-129) is the safest play due to the return of Barkley. That adds instant balance to the New York offense and can keep Murray and the Cardinals off the field. The over/under in Rams-Giants opened at 48.5 points, but that line has dropped by one point to 47.5. The money line has Los Angeles at -834, meaning you’d have to bet $834 on the Rams to win $100.
NFL Draft Betting Guide The Line Sports Illustrated
Sports Betting 101: ... Part 1 of 2 Pro Basketball Expert Predictions & Daily Vegas Betting Lines ... 49ers at Cardinals - Thursday 10/31/19 - NFL Betting Free Picks & Predictions l ... Is Kyler Murray a lock to go No. 1 to the Cardinals? Who will be the first RB and WR off the board? What are the first round's best bets? The Line gets you ready for all your NFL Draft gambling needs. NFL Opening Line Report for Week #8 with Teddy Covers and Drew Martin: In this episode, Teddy and Drew break down the NFL openers from various sports handicapping angles and go over all the line ... MLB Picks (9-10-19) Major League Baseball Expert Predictions Daily Vegas Lines & Betting Odds by ... vs San Francisco Giants Baseball Gambling Picks ... Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals STL ... Will Brinson is joined by Ryan Wilson, John Breech and Sean Wagner-McGough to give their early analysis on Week 15 lines across the NFL. The guys discuss Ram...
