Home Keeneland

Bloodlines is, IMO, one of the most important criteria to consider in every race. It can give you clues on which horse(s) will perform the best in sprints, middle distances, long distances, dirt, grass, all weather tracks. But using bloodlines alone will leave most to frustrating results, much like anything else you can think of using, including speed ratings, trainers stats, jockey stats, expert picks and everything else. However, when you take bloodlines, then try to figure out when a trainer has succeeded in getting his horse to peak in the race he has usually been pointing for months, and the jockeys who has followed most of the real contenders for most of their careers, then it will give you an advantage over most of the other handicappers in a game that is all about being prepared and willing to take educated chances.
Most horses will not go much further than their pedigree will suggest time and time again. Neither will they perform their best when asked to go too short or even on a surface they not like as much as another surface.
Trainers are creatures of habit and once they figure out the way they have had success in the past, they will revert back to that "system" over and over again. So while knowing which trainers has won a race such as the derby is important, it is more important to know if he has a horse entering that race that has follow his successful path before(including other prestigious races) and if he is peaking for that start, not the start or two before.
All jockeys, like trainers and owners, wants to win the Ky Derby more than any other race. So they will spend months looking at or riding horses that they think has a possibility to give them their best shot at winning a race that is very elusive to most. So, again, while it is important to watch which top jockeys ends up landing on which horse, it simply implies he thinks, along with his agent, that this horse gives him the best shot of winning.
So I will list every horse in this year's Ky Derby , with their pedigree, and my thoughts of their probability of succeeding at one and one quarter mile. While some of you will disagree with my assessment, that is what makes betting the derby so thrilling. But in the end, I do not and have never spread my money in order to say I cash a ticket. I am always trying and have been successful occasionally in narrowing down my choices to the bare minimum and pocketing life changing winnings.
TACITUS-- Tapit- Close Hatches By First Defense. 3x4 To Unbridled, 4x4 To Seattle Slew, 4(C)x5(C) To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Northern Dancer & Secretariat. Tapit has been a top sire for years. He ran in the 2004 Ky Derby and finished 9th to Smarty Jones in a muddy renewal of the derby. While Tapit has sired several Belmont S winners, he has never sired a winner of the Ky Derby. The Belmont S is usually a much slower paced race than the derby, so that is, IMO, the biggest factor to consider. Tacitus's dam, Close Hatches, won 9 of 14 lifetime starts, showed front running speed but her best distance was up to 1 1/16 mile. She won one G1 at 1 1/8 mile in four attempts(all three of her career off the board finishes was at this distance) when she was allowed to set a pace she was comfortable without any challenge and drew off. Tacitus's broodmare sire, First Defense, won the G1 Forego S at 7 furlongs for this biggest and only G1 win. In summation, I will take a stand against Tacitus, not only winning but also finishing in the top four.
OMAHA BEACH--- War Front- Charming By Seeking The Gold. 3x4 To Rubiano, 5x3 To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Native Dancer. War Front won 4 of 13 lifetime starts, all on dirt, though his pedigree suggested he would perform much better on grass. His biggest win came in the G2 Vosburgh H, and he was no factor in his only start at 1 1/8 mile. However, as his pedigree suggests, he is much better known as a sire of high class grass runners, especially up to a mile. Omaha Beach's dam, Charming, won 1 of 3 lifetime starts, and was pulled up and later retired in her only stakes try. His broodmare sire, Seeking The Gold, won 8 of 15 lifetime starts with his biggest win coming in the G1 Super Derby. However, he narrowly miss in the G1 Travers S on Saratoga's speed favoring track and his career finale saw him run second to heavy favorite Alysheba in the G1 BC Classic, though beaten soundly on an off track, a type of track he was superior to most. As a sire, he is best known was siting champion milers, both on dirt and grass. In summation, while I believe Omaha Beach would be no surprise for a minor award, I will not be using him at all.
VEKOMA-- Candy Ride- Momma De Mona By Speightstown. 5x4 To Mr Prospector & Hoist The Flag. Candy Ride won all 6 of his lifetime start, including beating Medaglia D'Oro(who never won at 1 1/4 mile) in the G1 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic in his career finale. As a sire, Candy Ride is known for siring high class front running speed but most are distance challenged at 1 1/4 mile until they turned 4 YO and/or he gets major help from the dam side. His best runner to run in the Ky Derby, Gun Runner, flatten out in the stretch while just holding on for third. Vekoma's dam, Mona De Momma, won the G1 7F Humana Distaff for her biggest stakes score but did so with a late kick. Vekoma's broodmare sire, Speightstown, won 10 of 16 lifetime races, all at 6 or 7 furlongs. However, he was injured twice in his four year career, required long layoffs of 1 1/2 year and nearly a year, so his connections probably did not want to risk trying him at middle distance. As a sire, while most of his runners perform best sprinting, he has sire a few to win at the 1 1/4 mile, including Golden Ticket, who dead heat for the win in the 2012 G1 Travers S with Alpha and Haynesfield, who beat Blame in the 2010 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.In summation, while I will probably pass on using him, he could be one that hangs around and nabs a minor reward.
PLUS QUE PARFAIT- Point Of Entry- Belvedera By Awesome Again. 4(C)x5(C) To His Majesty, 4x5 To Mr Prospector. Point Of Entry won 9 of 18 lifetime starts and is a perfect example of what I have suggested over and over about how a horse's pedigree can tip you to live longshots. He became his career on dirt and won 2 of his first 9 starts, showing flashes but never quite being able to put it all together. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, finally decided maybe he would do better on grass where he would go on to win his last 7 of 9 starts, most in G1 competion. His 2 losses were both in the G1 BC Turf, where he finished 2nd, beaten a 1/2 length and returned the next year to run 4th, beaten 1 3/4 length in his first start back after returning from an injury, suffered five months before hand. Plus Que Parfait's dam, Belvedera, finished last in her only lifetime start at Charles Town. However, his broodmare sire, Awesome Again, won 9 of 12 lifetime starts, including the G1 BC Classic in his career finale. His best known son is Ghostzapper, a 1/2 brother to City Zip and broodmare sire of 2018 TC Winner, Justify. In summary, while he is one of the better bred horse in this year's field, he has thus far under performed and/or seems a cut below the main contenders, so I will probably pass.
ROADSTER-- Quality Road- Ghost Dancing By Silver Ghost. 4x3 To Mr Prospector, 5(C)x5(C)x4(F) To Raise A Native, 5(F)x5(F) To Hail To Reason. Quality Road won 8 of 13 lifetime starts, including the G1 Florida Derby and was the expected favorite for the 2009 Ky Derby before suffering an injury in a workout while preparing for that start and was declared(scratched) from the race. He has been an above average sire since starting his stallion career and here is his latest top runner. Roadster's Dam, Ghost Dancing, won 5 of 9 lifetime starts but was not tested against top runners. His broodmare sire, Silver Ghost, won 3 of 6 lifetime starts, none against top runners though he was fast in sprints. Silver Ghost sired some useful middle distance runners on dirt, but I have had the most success with him using his daughters in long distances grass runners pedigrees. In summary, Roadster has a pedigree that could conceivably win the derby and it will be a matter of if he has enough experience and class to pull it off. My guess is he does not and I will try using others but is the one I am most concerned about leaving out of my bets.
BY MY STANDARDS-- Goldencents- A Jealous Woman By Muqtarib. 5x4 To Mr Prospector, 5(F)X5(F) To Secretariat & Northern Dancer. Goldencents won 7 of 18 lifetime starts, including the G1 Santa Anita Derby and was very fast but did a steady fade in that year's Ky Derby after not being able to get near the early lead. His best distance was a mile and he won 2 runnings of the BC Dirt Mile to put an exclamation point on that statement. By My Standards's dam, A Jealous Woman, won 8 of 25 lifetime starts, including 2 non graded stakes at SA at 1 mile on grass and a 2nd in the G2 Goldikova S, all in fast times for that surface. His broodmare sire, Muqtarib, won 3 of 15 lifetime starts, including the G2 Richmond S in England. In summary, By My Standards simply is not one I will waste any money on.
MAXIMUM SECURITY-- New Year's Day- Lil Indy By Anasheed. 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Northern Dancer. New Year's Day won 2 of 3 lifetime starts, including the 2013 G1 BC Juvenile Dirt in his final start with a late run. This is his first crop to race but he has some pedigree that suggest distance will not be a problem. Maximum Security's dam, Lil Indy, won 2 of 19 lifetime starts. His broodmare sire, Anasheed, is a 3/4 brother to Mineshaft but won only 2 of 15 lifetime starts. In summary, there are two ways to look at his chances. First, I like horses that did not have to use all their energy winning or finishing their final prep. In the Fla Derby, he looked like he had something to run with him early but that horse turned out to be over-hyped. Second, he got to walk the dog, setting an extremely slow pace and then sprinting home the last 4 furlongs which I usually bet against next out. My choice will be to make this one beat me and if he does, it is time to move on to another race.
GAME WINNER-- Candy Ride- Indyan Giving By A.P. Indy. 5x5 To Mr Prospector. Candy Ride(see Vekoma above). Indyan Giving was unraced but her dam, Fleet Indian, won 13 of 19 lifetime starts but spent most of her career beating up on mediocre competition. After winning 2 G1s, she was pulled up in her final career start and did not finish the race in the G1 BC Distaff as the favorite. Game Winner's broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the G1 Belmont S and that year's BC Classic after scratching from the Ky Derby the morning of the race with a minor injury. In summary, Game Winner spent most of the early part of this year on my watch list and was still there until his run in the SA Derby. I know he was wide throughout(4 wide is not a good enough excuse, at least for me)to see him shorten stride in deep stretch which was the only reason Roadster caught him. Now he needs to go another 1/8 mile. Not for me against these.
CODE OF HONOR-- Noble Mission- Reunited By Dixie Union. 4(C)x5(C)x4(F) To Norther Dancer, 5x4 To Blushing Groom, 5x5 To Mr Prospector. Noble Mission is a full brother to Frankel and won 9 of 21 career starts. However, all his starts was on grass in Europe where he was his best at 1 1/8 mile but running style, distance and even class does not necessarily transform into success or failure on dirt. Code Of Honor's dam, Reunited, won 5 of 10 lifetime starts with the 6 furlongs G3 Thoroughbred Club Of America S being her only graded stakes win. His broodmare sire, Dixie Union, won 7 of 12 lifetime starts with the G1 Haskell S being his longest win at 1 1/8 mile. However, Dixie Union is sire of 2012 Belmont S winner, Union Rags. In summary, I believe his Florida Derby race is a throwout simply because the pace was slower than most high claimers would be expected to run, much less G1 competition. His run in last year's Champagne S when 2nd is as good as anyone in this field, IMO, and there is a reason John Velasquez chose him over Pletcher's horse. He simply thinks he has a better chance to win with this horse. That said, I am still undecided if I will use him, but he is on my short list to consider.
HAIKAL-- Daaher- Sablah By Distorted Humor. 5(C)x4(F)x4(F) To Mr Prospector. 5x5 To Northern Dancer & Buckpasser. Daaher won 4 of 9 lifetime starts with his biggest win in the G1 Cigar Mile H. Daaher's sire was Awesome Again, who won the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles and also sired a BC Classic winner in Ghostzapper. Haikal's dam, Sablah was unraced. His broodmare sire, Distorted Humor, won 8 of 23 lifetimes starts including a pair of G2s 7 furlongs sprints at CD And Keeneland. Distorted Humor also was sire of 2003 Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Funny Cide. One more piece of his pedigree worth mentioning is Haikal's 3rd dam, Shadayid, ran 3rd in the 1 1/2 mile Epsom Oaks and spent the rest of her career mostly taking on the boys and running well against them. In summary, Haikal will be one of my top two choices, depending on the post position draw. And I will give you the reason why I like him. I mentioned earlier that trainers were creatures of habit. They figure out what works for them and then try to set up their other horses to follow the same path. McLaughin is 0-9 in his attempts to win the Ky Derby with one second place finisher. That second place finish occurred in 2005 when he brought a confirmed sprinter bloodlines wise, turned him into an off the pace type, spaced his races out and on paper, he looked to have no chance. Closing Argument used what he was taught to perfection and when he caught Afleet Alex at the wire, he costed me by far the biggest payday I will ever have an opportunity to collect on. If you look up Closing Argument and Haikal, you will see a very similar pattern, including both ran 3rd in their final prep. I let a one million dollar payoff get away from me that I really liked, but I do not plan on letting another get away, especially when the same trainer could be involved. HAIKAL WILL BE WITHDRAWN FROM THE KY DERBY PER HIS TRAINER MCLAUGHLIN.
IMPROBABLE-- City Zip- Rare Event By A.P. Indy. 4x5 To Blushing Groom. City Zip won 9 of 23 lifetime starts, all sprints. However, he is a 1/2 to Ghostzapper. Improbable's dam, Rare Event, won 4 of 14 lifetime starts, all condition races and was unplaced in 5 stakes tries, mostly on grass. Improbable's broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, simply loved to run and he got better as the distances stretched out. And since I learned that the dam is as important as the sire in determining how far any horse wants to go, this will make him eligible to win as she not only has A.P. Indy on top but her dam(2nd dam of Improbable) is a 1/2 sister to Hard Spun, second in the 2007 Ky Derby after setting the pace. Also, being inbred 4x5 to Blushing Groom gives you another factor to consider. Blushing Groom had a heart not seen in most thoroughbreds and would always find more when challenged. And he passed this heart on to most of his foals. His best siring dirt son, Rahy, is sire of Serena's Song and broodmare sire of Giant's Causeway. In summary, my biggest concern with him is his jockey may ask him to go too early and not save enough for the stretch run. But Irad is known for leaving something in the tank for the stretch drive. Plus, since Baffert started sending horses to Arkansas, the one he thinks has the best shot to win ends up there. IMO, with Justify last year, he chose the race he thought would be easier to win and he need the win points more than place or show points to be sure he qualified. Baffert usually does not make mistakes if he has the horse. You have to beat him. He knows as much as anyone that SA dirt track results is usually speed favoring & track aided. His best shot to tied the all time record for wins in the Ky Derby by one trainer with 6.
WAR OF WILL-- War Front- Visions Of Clarity By Sadler's Wells. 3(C)x3(F)x5(F) To Norther Dancer, 4x5 To Forli, 5(F)x5(F) To Lalun. Last seen getting crushed as the heavy favorite in the La Derby. But he had a legit excuse as he not only lost action but easily could had hyper extended a tendon. So, IMO, that race is a toss and he deserves another try. Since then, he is working like a horse on a mission and his bloodlines is screaming "do not toss". Everyone knows about Northern Dancer, but few knows about the two others who repeats in his pedigree. First, the filly Lalun was dam of Sadler's Wells broodmare sire Bold Reason, who ran 3rd in the 1971 Ky Derby, 5th In the Preakness and third in the Belmont S. Lalun is also dam of Never Bend, who also never bend and he was a refused to quit front runner who ran 2nd in the 1961 Ky Derby(to a late runner) after battling with and putting away two unbeaten horses and 3rd in the Preakness(behind the Ky Derby favorite and the Derby winner). He also was a top sire in Europe's distances bloodlines before he was overtaken by none other than Sadler's Wells. Forli, who appears 4x5 in War Of Will bloodlines, won his first 8 races in Argentina and then purchased by Arthur Hancock Jr to stand in the U.S. His best known son, Forego, was unraced at 2 YO and entered the Ky Derby as an outsider without a stakes win but finished 4th to none other than Secretariat. He would go on to be named Champion Handicapper Horse for 4 straight years, carrying as much as 137 lbs and winning 34 times in 57 lifetime starts. Forli's daughter, Special, was the dam of Northern Dancer's son, Nureyev and 2nd dam of the aforementioned Sadler's Wells. Another Forli's daughter, Tuerta, was dam of 1984 Ky Derby and Belmont S winner, Swale. In summary, while is last leads a big question mark(in most handicappers eyes), do you want to bet against the real speed if he has recovered? Your choice, but he will be included , especially underneath, on my tickets. His trainer, Mark Casse, has shown you his intentions and that is go for the lead to get a good position, then maybe rate behind battling front runners until given the cue to go entering the stretch, which is what wins most Ky Derbies. The main reason no one has won from the one hole since Ferdinand in 1986 is most simply did not have enough speed to get a good early position. This one does and if he breaks on cue, he will be gone before the others knows what hit them. Bloodlines is there and so is the front running speed with a jockey that rides front runners well.
LONG RANGE TODDY-- Take Charge Indy- Pleasant Song By Unbridled's Song. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F) To Secretariat, 5x4 To Fappiano, 5(F)x5(F) To Northern Dancer. His sire, Take Charge Indy won the G1 Florida Derby, but finished 19 of 20th in the Ky Derby, beaten 50 lengths and beating only a UAE Derby winner who was pulled up and did not finished. His, broodmare sire, Unbridled's Song, also won the 1996 Florida Derby and G1 Wood Memorial, then open a clear lead in the Ky Derby before hitting that invisible wall that so many has found at the 1/8 pole and fading to fifth. In summary, while Long Range Toddy has a little more help underneath than his sire and broodmare sire, I simply believe he has peaked and will be no factor in this year's derby. Pass for me!
TAX-- Arch- Toll By Giant's Causeway. 3x5 To Roberto, 4(C)x4(F)x 5(F) To Northern Dancer, 5(F)x5(F) To Secretariat. Tax's sire, Arch, biggest win came in the G1 Super Derby, where he beat a lackluster field after that race had lost most of its prestige. He would finish 9 of 10 in the G1 BC Classic, beating only a horse that was pulled up and did not finish in his only other G1 effort. Arch, as a sire, is best known for siring horses that found 1 1/4 miles just beyond their reach, though he is broodmare sire of 2012 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, I'll Have Another, but he had major help underneath. Tax's broodmare sire, Giant's Causeway, won 9 of 13 lifetime races, but finished 2nd beaten a neck, by Tiznow, in his only race on dirt with no more than 1 1/2 lengths separated the top two throughout. A Classic! Tax's dam, Toll, traces through her dam line back to La Troienne, considered by most to be the most influential dam in U.S. history. In summary, Tax is certainly bred to get the distance and would be no surprise, especially underneath, but I prefer others more. His trainer, Danny Gargan, is looking for his first G1 win and he is picking a tough spot to accomplish that feat, though he wins at 22 % and has an in the money % of 53. Not bad stats.
COUNTRY HOUSE--- Looking At Lucky- Quake Lake By War Chant. Country House's sire, Looking At Lucky, won 9 of 13 lifetime starts, with his only two off the board finishes was in the Ky Derby in the slop, where he broke from the dreaded 1 Post, was boxed in throughout and never got to make a serious run until it was too late and his career finale, in the BC Classic, when 4th behind Blame and Zenyatta, though he got sick one week before that start and only ran because Baffert & the owners had announced he was retiring after that race. Looking At Lucky's sire, Smart Strike, is also sire of Curlin. Country House's broodmare sire, War Chant, won 5 of 7 lifetime starts, including the BC Turf Mile in his career finale. His only off the board finish is his career came in the 2000 Ky Derby when he finished 9th after running 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby. Most of Country House's underneath help topped out at 1 1/8 miles. In summary, if the pace is extremely fast, he will have a chance to get a piece underneath, but I doubt if the pace will be as fast as he will need. I have seen bigger shockers to hit the board in the derby, but I will pass.
CUTTING HUMOR-- First Samurai- Pun By Pulpit. 4(C)x5(C) To Northern Dancer, 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Secretariat. His sire, First Samurai, won 5 of 8 lifetime starts, including two G1s as a 2 YO(Hopeful S & Champagne S), then won the G2 Fountain Of Youth via DQ at 3 but was caught late in that race by Corinthian, but the unofficial winner impeded the 3rd place finisher, costing him the win. In his next start, First Samurai, finished fifth and was no factor in the Blue Grass S, his only unplacing of his career. First Samurai has bred a mixture of sprinters/ milers with his best son, Lea, finding 1 1/8 miles was his limit in top company. Cutting Humor's broodmare sire, Pulpit, won 4 of 6 lifetime starts, including 2 G2 wins in the Fountain Of Youth in a good time of 141 4/5 for a 1/16 miles and the Blue Grass S but also finished 2nd in the G1 Florida Derby. However, in the Ky Derby, he alternated the lead with Free House for the first mile before fading readily in the stretch to finish 4th, beaten 7 lengths by Silver Charm and was retired after that effort. While he spent most of his career siring milers/ middle distance type horse, he is most famous as sire of Tapit(who got a lot of help from his dam) and Lucky Pulpit, sire of 2014 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, California Chrome(also with major help from the dam line). Interesting though,Cutting Humor has some serious mud influences in his 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th dam sires. In summary, I will not use this horse in any of my bets, simply because he does not have enough top runners to help him negotiate 1 1/4 mile. While the derby always seems to have one real outsider to finish 3rd or 4th, I would rather consider one who will be trying to pick up the pieces in deep stretch.
WIN WIN WIN-- Hat Trick- Miss Smarty Pants By Smarty Jones. 5(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector. His sire, Hat Trick, was an all or nothing miler while spending his entire career in Japan. But his sire, Sunday Silence, won the 1989 Ky Derby in the mud, and came back to out duel Easy Goer in the Preakness in one of the best and thrilling duels ever, before running 2nd to that rival in the Belmont S by 8 lengths. However, in that years BC Classic, he again managed to beat Easy Goer to make it 3 wins in their 4 meetings. Also, as a sire, he was sold to Japan interests for $10 million and led the sire list by far in every year he was at stud. His son, Deep Impact, took over where he left off and has led the sire list almost every year since. Win Win Win's broodmare sire, Smarty Jones, won 8 of 9 lifetime starts, including a muddy renewal of the 2004 Ky Derby and suffered his only career defeat in that year's Belmont S, while finishing second. However, Win Win Win is the only horse in this year's field that has 5 different Ky Derby winners showing in his 5 generation pedigree(Sunday Silence and Smarty Jones(see above), Unbridled(winner of 1990 Ky Derby and 2nd in Preakness), Foolish Pleasure(winner of the 1975 Ky Derby and 2nd in both the Preakness & Belmont S) and Cannonade(winner of the 1974 Ky Derby and he sports the same sire(Bold Bidder) as 1979 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, Spectacular Bid. Win Win Win also has 4 Belmont winners showing that does not include any of the above(Damascus who finished 3rd in the 1967 Ky Derby and then won both the Preakness & Belmont S. His sire, Sword Dancer, was second in both the 1959 Ky Derby & Preakness, before winning the Belmont S on a muddy track). Arts And Letters was second in both the 1969 Ky Derby & Preakness before winning the Belmont S and denying Majestic Prince a TC sweep) and Caveat(who ean 3rd in the 1984 Ky Derby and then returned to win the Belmont S, beating the famous Slew O' Gold by 4 1/2 lengths going away. In summary, I have not seen this many Ky Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners in one's pedigree in my more than 40 years of studying bloodlines and he will be included in all my bets, especially since Haikal may be a late scratch.
GRAY MAGICIAN-- Graydar- Burg Berg By Johannesberg. 5(C)x5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector. His sire, Graydar, won 5 of 6 career starts, including the G1 Donn H and G2 New Orleans H, both at 1 1/8 mile, both in gate to wire fashion and beating Flat Out both times, by 8 and 4 lengths, respectively. He finished his career winning the G2 Kelso H, also in gate to wire fashion completing the mile in 134.08. Gray Magician's dam, Burg Berg, spent her career racing in Southern California, winning the non graded Swingtime S At 1 mile on grass but also finishing 2nd in the G2 Royal Heroine S, also at 1 mile on grass. However, Gray Magician is a full brother to last year's G3 Robert B Lewis winner, Lombo, who then came back and showed the way in the G2 San Felipe S for 6 furlongs before McKinzie put him away. Their broodmare sire, Johannesburg, won his first 7 career starts, including the BC Juvenile Dirt in 2001 and then came back in the 2002 Ky Derby, and finished an even 8th, but broke from the dreaded 1 post and trapped inside, off 1 one mile prep in Europe as a 3 YO on grass. However, he is most famous known as sire of Scat Daddy. In summary, his effort in the UAE Derby when 2nd could be a signal he is starting to figure out the game as he was with the pace throughout, lost a little ground when in traffic, but when cleared he finished with a rush. I will caution you before you toss him, that he is the first runner heading into the derby that has worked not once, but twice at San Luis Rey Training Center and both works indicates he is ready. The problem with most UAE runners is they return(or ship over) and trainers will usually use caution and not work them, but expect them to perform in the biggest race against the best horses America has to offer being ill prepared. Not Peter Miller and he has called on Drayden Van Dyke to see it through. My longshot special underneath.
SPINOFF--- Hard Spun- Zaftig By Gone West. 5x4 To Raise A Native, 5x5 To Native Dancer. His sire, Hard Spun, ran 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby to Street Sense, setting all the pace, 3rd in the Preakness to Curlin, and 4th in the Belmont S to Rags To Riches and Curlin. He also ran 2nd to Curlin, in that year's BC Classic, contested on one of the sloppiest track you will ever see. Spinoff's dam, Zaftig, won the G1 Acorn S at 1 mile but also ran third in the first running of the 7 furlongs Listed BC F&M Sprint, ran in 119.90, on the then SA all weather track. Spinoff's broodmare sire, Gone West, was a miler during his racing career and was a champion miler sire, especially on grass and in Europe. His best dirt son, Came Home, went into the 2002 Ky Derby highly regarded with 6 wins in 7 lifetime starts but found the 1 1/4 mile distance a little longer than he liked, though he would later win the G1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles on speed favoring Del Mar race track. In summary, I simply believe he will not get this distance and he managed to hang around in the La Derby because the best pace type horse did not produce his best run. So, I will pass, mostly because there is plenty of speed that I believe will make him work.
MASTER FENCER--- Just A Way- Sexy Samurai By Deputy Minister. 5x5 To Nearctic. His Sire, Just A Way, is a grand son of Sunday Silence and while I know very little about Japan's racing, he did run second in the Japan Cup. However, his sire is Heart's Way, who also ran 2nd in the Japan Cup but is best known in the U.S. as sire of Yoshida. Master Fencer's broodmare sire, Deputy Minister found 1 1/16 mile to be his best distance but was considered an early favorite for the 1982 Ky Derby before he was taken off the trail after 2 sub par efforts to begin his 3 YO season. As a sire, though, he is known for the fillies he sired including Go For Wand, Open Mind, Better Than Honour and colts Awesome Again, Touch Gold and Dehere. In summary, while Master Fencer is well bred and has all U.S. breeding throughout, I watched both of his preps and he came from last with a solid late kick to finish 4th, then 2nd. However, when he finished 2nd, he looked rank throughout(to me) and that does not usually end well in their next start. Now facing better horses and with one very slow work since arriving, I will have to pass on him.
BODEXPRESS--- Bodemeister- Pied A Terre By City Zip. 5x4 To Mr Prospector, 5(C)x5(C) To Northern Dancer, 5x5 To In Reality, 5(F)x5(F) To Raise A Native. His sire, Bodemeister, won the G1 Arkansas Derby before running 2nd in both the Ky Derby & Preakness, all while prominent throughout. However, his pedigree literally screams late runner and I feel his best foals will come when trainers decides to let them rate. It has already happen with several of his foals and they have responded with a late kick like Empire Maker, A.P Indy and Roberto, all showing in his lineage. Bodexpress broodmare sire, City Zip, was best at sprint distances and most of his foals also is better at sprints on dirt and up to a mile on grass. In summary, I will not use this horse on any of my tickets.
This is my pedigree summary for the 2019 Ky Derby. I have not decided if I will bet this race, simply because I will wait until I get a better feel of what the track conditions will be. I know rain is expected, but the weather forecast is often wrong, especially because rain will stop often before reaching the area suggested because the system will often weaken and break up or change directions before arriving. Where I live we have been expecting heavy rain for two days and it arrived this morning, sprinkled less than .01 of 1 inch and was gone in 15 minutes, even though the radar showed a heavy band of rain less than 40 miles away. If I choose to bet this race, all my tickets will reflect who I like best from the ones I am considering and I do not change my mind. I have never made any real money by betting horses I do not really like and bet only because the track conditions changes.

Preview of the Arkansas Derby and more

With the Kentucky Derby now just three weeks away, our highlighted race of the week will be the last prep race for the Derby in the Grade: 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
We will also be looking at the Oaklawn Handicap, a Grade: 2, $750,000 nine furlong contest also for four year olds and up.
Elsewhere, we will take a look at three Graded Stakes races at Keeneland Race Course. The Ben Ali Stakes for four year olds and up, the Jenny Wiley Stakes, an 8 ½ furlong test for four year olds and up fillies and mares on the turf and the Lexington Stakes for three year olds who are desperately trying for some last minute Kentucky Derby points in hopes that a win or a good showing will catapult them into this year’s “Run for the Roses”.
Lastly, on Sunday we will be examining the Grade: 1, $750,000 Apple Blossom back at Oaklawn Park, another 8 ½ furlong race for four year olds and up fillies and mares.
Saturday, April 13, 2019
Keeneland Race Course
Race: 7 (4:24 PM EST Post)
Ben Ali Stakes
If you look up “racehorse rounding back into top form” in the dictionary you might see a picture of Flameaway. The one time Kentucky Derby threat ran a very good third in the Grade: 3 Mineshaft off a nearly six month break two starts back. I really like the way this $400,000 son of Scat Daddy won his last, as he took pace pressure every step of the way while wiring the field. That last race, back to back excellent works since and this being his third start off the layoff, all point to another good effort upcoming. Lastly, I don’t see him having any problems in what is projected to be an off track on Saturday.…………………….Based off his last two races, a win and a fast closing third, both at Laurel Park, Bonus Points also seems to be in peak form right now. The Todd Pletcher trainee draws a good post for his running style and should be coming late in this spot……………………… I know Solomini is quite popular but I’m not a big fan of his. In fact, I believe he is one of the most overrated horses in quite some time…maybe since Keen Ice. Yes, he’s a Grade: 1 winner and yes, he’s hit the board in 9 of 11 career starts but two facts stand out about him to me. 1) He’s won one race since that Grade: 1 win (a span of 16 months) and that was against $40,000 optional claimers and 2) the fact still remains he is 2 for 11 lifetime. This son of Curlin will likely be over bet in this spot. ………….Honorable Mentions: Third Day is a $575,000 son of the corvette looking Bernardini who did well to finish third in the aforementioned Mineshaft Handicap in his last. This handsome colt was trapped behind a slow pace yet finished just a neck behind Flameaway in that race and his one and only race in the slop was an impressive win. Bottom line here is, he could better this rating especially if the track does come up wet…………………The cleverly named Nun the Less looks better suited for the synthetics but note he is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Merits a longshot look if the rains come…………….First Mondays, a $450,000 son of Curlin who missed the break in his last, and Just Whistle, who was a good third in the Peter Pan Stakes last year, both could run well here and neither would be a huge surprise.

Race: 9 (5:34 PM EST Post)
Stonestreet Lexington
Anothertwistafate rattled off three super impressive, large margined wins over the synthetics this year but looked just as good, if not better, in his neck loss last time out in the Sunland Park Derby on the dirt. This $360,000 son of Scat Daddy sat just off screaming early fractions (:45.3, 1:09.3, 1:34.3) before “running on” to just miss the win. Note the :24 second flat internal fraction as it’s the sign of a quality runner. If this handsome, smooth strided colt, who ripped a sensational half mile work for this (:46.4) last week runs well enough here to make it into the Derby (he’s on the threshold on points), no one better go to sleep on him as he appears to have big time talent and would pose an enormous threat………………….Based off his close up, on the board finishes in the Sham, Southwest and Louisiana Derby, Sueno clearly looks next best………………….I really liked Zenden’s Tampa Bay Derby effort at 20-1 in his last. This son of Fed Biz normally assumes a stalking position early on in his races but in the Tampa Bay Derby, this horse blew the gate and ripped off super fast fractions (:22.3, 45.4 and 1:09.3). He understandably tired late but I thought he did extremely well to finish fourth and was only be beaten by four lengths to the likes of Tacitus and Win Win Win. Looks best of the rest here………………..Honorable Mentions: Call me stubborn, but I’m STILL not giving up on the late running Roiland, who has a habit of running well at double digit odds………………Anyone have any idea what to do with Harvey Wallbanger, who wins the Holy Bull at 30-1 then comes back and completely tanks in the Florida Derby? Because I sure don’t. He’s a tough horse to play with such inconsistencies…………If you are hunting a longshot in this race, take a good look at Shang, who is a neck shy of being unbeaten in five starts vs. lesser. Although he obviously will be taking a huge step up in class, it should be noted he ran the last 2 ½ furlongs of his last race in an excellent :30.1, his speed figures are climbing, he handles the wet track very well and the #1 post at this meet is winning at 18% thus far.
Race: 10 (6:12 PM EST Post)
Jenny Wiley Stakes
Rushing Fall is a very special filly. This gorgeous, $320,000 daughter of More Than Ready is 6 for 7 in her career, has already captured two Grade: 1 wins and, had it not been for a questionable ride when losing her one race by a neck, she could be unbeaten. There is nothing not to like about her as she can handle the distance, is adaptable to any pace scenario, handles any “give” in the turf and is 3 for 3 at Keeneland. If you are looking to beat her, which might prove futile, you can use the angle that this will be her first start in exactly 6 months but that’s not enough for me……………………I like Rymska. She is a big, all black (very rare) five year old mare who is 7 for 13 in her career. This multiple Graded Stakes winner could not have looked any better in taking down the Hillsborough at Gulfstream in her last and you get the third start off the layoff angle. Easily looks next best here…………………Bellavais has been gradually improving since October. $485,000 mare by Tapit finished very well in her last and won her previous time out, both at Gulfstream Park. It appears she too can handle a soft turf course and has been on the board in 10 of 15 career races…………….Honorable Mentions: Onthemoonagain is a French invader who has fared very well in all four U.S. starts. Chad Brown trainee could better this rating with the right pace scenario……………Got Stormy came back running off a long layoff when whipping high level optionals. Steps up but that race could set her up for a good effort here……………….The longshot horse in this race is Princess Warrior, who looks overmatched on paper but note her two races on off turf courses were both very good.
Oaklawn Park
Race: 9 (6:22 PM EST Post)
Oaklawn Handicap
After back to back big efforts at “big balloons,” Rated R Superstar has methodically worked his way back into what appears to be top form. Although his rider is ice cold right now, he does like this track and seems to be ok if it rains as expected. …my best guess in an extremely wide open horse race…………………….Giant Expectations disappointed as the 8/5 favorite in the Essex in his last. This 6 year old by Giant Frost chased Battle of Midway and McKinzie two back and wasn’t embarrassed by any stretch, so you know he has ability. It’s the consistency I question as he hasn’t won a horse race of any kind in 16 months. That said he looks next best…………….Quip was up against it when he had to chase the absolutely streaking right now Prince Lucky in his first race back off a long layoff. This good looking son of Distorted Humor did well to finish third in that race and should be tighter for this…………………Honorable Mentions: Tenfold’s claim to fame is running Justify to three quarters of a length in the 2018 Preakness Stakes. This son of Curlin was a very close up fourth in his first race since, handles the slop just fine and should improve off his 2019 debut. Figures close………………Lone Sailor figures to do his normal “drop way back early but come with big run late only to fall short late” routine. Logically, the faster the pace, the better his chances are and the pace figures to be honest in this race……………..Keep an eye on Chris and Dave here too if it rains. Although he seems overmatched, he is 4 for 6 on wet tracks…………..I got to spend several minutes up close and personal with Lookin’ at Lee last year at Saratoga before the Travers. He is a very nice looking, well made horse, but he just hasn’t run to those looks as his 3 for 21 career record would indicate.
Race: 11 (7:43 PM EST Post)
Arkansas Derby
There are a lot of “moving parts” with the big, almost perfectly strided, Improbable, so this race should tell the tale of where we stand with him. His last race, The Rebel, didn’t answer any questions for me. In fact, it seems to have posed more. Let’s start with why he was run down in deep stretch by Long Range Toddy. Was it because he was “parking lot” wide, off a boneheaded ride by DVD, throughout the entire race and, with that being his first race in 10 weeks, maybe he understandably tired late? I don’t know, like I’ve said before, Baffert is the master at sending them out ready, regardless of the situation. Was it the City Zip breeding that is causing the dreaded distance limitation? I don’t know that yet either being he romped, not once but twice, at 8 ½ furlongs before. Whatever the answers are, I know this much….Baffert is not sitting on his hands with this gorgeous colt. I don’t blame him one bit for making a rider change (from DVD to Jose Ortiz) and he is adding blinkers in this spot as well. I absolutely LOVED his last work where, with blinkers on, he sat just off his work mate, passed him on the turn for home and was "reaching out" soooooooooo beautifully down the lane I mumbled “wow” while stopping the clock in either 1:13.3 or 1:14 flat depending on what racing publication you read. This might prove futile, but I am sticking with him until he proves otherwise. That said, this race is a “do or die” for him. He will need to step up right now, in this spot to remain a serious Derby threat………………………….Horse Racing is a lot like other sports in the sense that the best baseball/basketball/football team doesn’t always win, but more of who gets hot heading into the playoffs. In this case, it’s who is getting good at just the right time and, aside from Tacitus and perhaps Vekoma, is there another horse in the country who is getting good right now more that Omaha Beach? After losing a couple of heart breaking, maiden races earlier in his career, this very handsome, very well bred colt (by War Front out of a mare super sire from years ago Seeking the Gold) ran a hole in the wind in the slop to finally break his maiden two starts back. He won by 9 that day and stopped the clock in a blistering 1:21 flat for seven panels. His next and last start was in a division of the Rebel, where he assumed command early, fended off a few others early in the race and then dug in and fended off none other than Two Year Old Colt Champion Game Winner in a thrilling stretch run. The Rebel proved two things. 1) He can handle the route distance and 2) he has the guts of a tight rope walker. Back to back bullet works since the Rebel signal he is holding form and possibly getting better. Big Money Mike gets the leg up……………….The aforementioned Long Range Toddy is a stretch runner who is 7-4-1-1 in his career has never finished more than two lengths behind the winner in his three career defeats. That, readers, is consistency. He draws the extreme outside post which could actually help him in this spot and I love his work pattern since his Rebel upset (8-1) win……………….Honorable Mentions: Although Galilean was passed in the stretch of the Rebel by Long Range Toddy, I still like this very handsome, $600,000 son of Uncle Mo. After annihilating Cal-Breds in his two prior races, this colt, who has a very efficient and smooth stride, did very well to finish third, beaten by less than three lengths in his first try vs. open company and outside the state of California as well. Bottom line here is, he is no easy throw out……………………...Country House is another late runner who, on the surface, looks to be struggling a bit outside the friendly confines of Gulfstream Park but a closer look shows he had legitimate excuses both times. He broke slowly (again) and chased a streaking War of Will two back and, after you guessed it, breaking slowly again, he was ridiculously wide in the Louisiana Derby. That said, this son of Lookin’ at Lucky could be a menace with a clean break and what is projected to be a hot early pace………………….Gray Attempt has won 4 of 6 in his career and is 2 for 3 on this oval plus he recorded a monster work in the mud last week (5F- :58.3). The problem I’m seeing with him is a mile or a mile a sixteenth looks to be “all of it.” In other words, on paper he looks better suited to sprinting.

Sunday, April 14, 2019
Oaklawn Park
Race: 8 (4:42 PM EST Post)
Apple Blossom
This year’s renewal of the Apple Blossom features a rematch from the Azeri Stakes with two of the best older females in the land in Elate and Midnight Bisou and this race figures to be a doozy. Midnight Bisou, who I liked since early last year, got the better of it last time and I’m sticking to my guns that she has a world of talent, will continue to get better and have a tremendous year when it’s all said and done. Four year old by Midnight Lute is off to a good start (2 for 2) in winning the Houston Ladies Classic in January and the aforementioned Azeri in March. She “takes her racetrack with her” as she is 7 for 13 in her career while winning on four different ovals in all parts of the country. Lastly, I believe she still holds a fitness edge over main rival Elate as this will be her third start (off the layoff) while Elate will be making her second start in eight months…………………….Elate is clearly the main threat in this spot. Head hunters in New Guinea could see this two time Grade: 1 winner needed her last as it was her first start in eight months. Filly by Medaglia d’ Oro did very well to finish second in the Azeri when beaten by just one length as the even money favorite. When I was at Belmont Park (before heading over to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial) last week, I heard several folks on the backstretch talk about how she may not be coming back the same as last year after, by trainer Bill Mott’s admittance, “a few minor injuries”. I’ll give her a mulligan for the Azeri but like Improbable this weekend, she needs to improve off the Azeri to prove that theory wrong………………….Wonder Gadot is another who probably needed her first race of 2019 when finishing second vs. optional $50,000 claimers on March 8 as it was her first start in over four months. Another daughter of “King of the (sales) Ring” Medaglia d’ Oro, this filly actually won two thirds of the Canadian Triple Crown (beating the boys) last year and still has that very long and flowing stride, which is especially good when on her right handed lead………………..Honorable Mention: Escape Clause is an absolute win machine while registering a mind boggling 20 wins in 30 career starts. Granted, she was beating up on far lesser competition at smaller tracks for most of it but still that’s quite a feat. That said, she did win a Grade: 2 at Santa Anita in January and could not have looked any better while blowing out her rivals at Sunland Park in her last. Mare by Going Commando (how did the Jockey Club miss that name by the way?), who stands for less than $1,000, won by 7+, getting a mile in a track record 1:34 flat.

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 22-72 = 31% (My Plays: -$2,314.14)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
****Superstar Winx makes her final career start in the Group: 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Randwick. If her win streak continues, this will be her 33rd straight win and 25th Group: 1. The scheduled post time is 11:05 p.m. ET on Friday, April 12th.

**** Lady Pauline, a half-sister to Lady Aurelia, was an eye catching, first time out winner last week at Keeneland.
Going off at an enormous 1-5 betting favorite, the Stonestreet homebred blew the gate and showed a very impressive speed to win by 9 3/4 lengths, stopping the clock in :51:3 for 4 ½ furlongs.
We’ll need to keep an eye on her moving forward.

****In all my years of being involved in this sport, I’m not sure I’ve seen a stronger book of mares to be bred to one first year stallion ever.
Justify, who stands at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud in Paris, KY., for $150,000, has the following list of mares booked: (although this is not all of them)
A Raving Beauty Multiple G1 winner
A Z Warrior G1 winner
Afleet Maggi Dam of G1 winner Dream Tree
African Jade Dam of G1 winner Lord Nelson
Appealing Zophie G1 winner, dam of Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit
Bar of Gold Won Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Bella Jolie Dam of champion sprinter Runhappy
Birdatthewire G1 winner
Blossomed Dam of G1 winner Sippican Harbor
Brave Anna G1 winner
Bubbler Dam of champion Arrogate
Caledonia Road Champion 2-year-old filly
Champagne Room Champion 2-year-old filly
Charming Dam of champion 2-year-old filly Take Charge Brandi,
Classic Strike Dam of G1 winner Union Strike
Dazzling Song Dam of G1 winner Magnum Moon
Diamondsandrubies G1 winner
Diva Delite Dam of G1 winner Midnight Bisou
Dream Dancing G1 winner
D’Wildcat Speed Dam of filly Lady Aurelia
Emma’s Encore G1 winner
Found won Breeders’ Cup Turf
Got Lucky G1 winner
Grace Hall G1 winner
Grazie Mille Dam of G1 winner Mo Town
Groupie Doll Two-time champion female sprinter and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Havre de Grace 2011 Horse of the Year, sold for $10 million
Ithinkisawapudycat Dam of G1 winner Sweet Loretta,
Khancord Kid Dam of Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold
Kosmo’s Buddy Dam of G1 winner Knicks Go
Mining My Own Dam of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and G1 winner Dullahan
Misty For Me G1 winner, dam of Cartier champion 2-year-old colt U S Navy Flag
Moonshine Memories G1 winner
Morena dam of Belmont Stakes winner Creator
Noted and Quoted G1 winner
Pretty ‘n’ Smart Dam of G1 winner Cupid
Rare Event Dam of G1 winner Improbable
Sambuca Classica Dam of champion 2-year-old male Classic Empire
Silk and Scarlet Dam of G1 winner Master of Hounds
Silky Serenade Dam of G1 winner Restless Rider,
So Sharp of G1 winner Sharp Azteca
Storm Dixie Dam of Kentucky Oaks winner Princess of Sylmar
Tapestry G1 winner
Together Forever: G1 winner
Turbulent Descent G1 winner
Untouched Talent dam of G1 winner Bodemeister
Vale Dori G1 winner
Yellow Heat Dam of G1 winner R Heat Lightning
Zipessa G1 winner

The Devil's Advocate: An Argument FOR and AGAINST Every Horse in the Kentucky Derby

With the Kentucky Derby just over a week away, the field is shaping up to be one of the more evenly matched groups in recent years. Often the most overanalyzed 2 minutes in sports, there are countless articles telling you who to bet, who’s hot, and who’s not. Like many others, I’ve been spending a lot of my free time pouring over PPs, watching replays at the office (shh), and trying to find the likeliest winners. However, instead of simply writing an article about who I like, I thought it would be more interesting to give a brief argument for and against each horse in the Derby.

This ended up being a lot longer than I anticipated, so feel free to skim over horses or buckle down for a long read. It’s a bit of a different take, so I hope you enjoy.

Tacitus:
+ Tacitus is impeccably bred, by Tapit out of the stakes winning mare Close Hatches, and has improved in every start. He proved the Tampa Derby victory was no fluke when he displayed an ability to overcome adversity after getting knocked sideways at the break in the Wood Memorial.
- Tacitus came home very slow in the Wood, running a final 3/8ths in 38.2 seconds and a final 1f in 13.4 seconds. There have only been 3 horses to win the Derby who did not run a final 3f in at least 38 seconds or a final 1f in at least 13 seconds in the last 29 years (Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, and Silver Charm). 22 of the past 29 Derby winners qualified on both fractions. He also benefitted from a long shot significantly compromising some of his competition at the break.

Omaha Beach:
+ Despite taking some time to break his maiden, once the light bulb turned on for this horse nobody has been able to beat him. He owns the field’s second highest Beyer at 101, highest Thorograph figure at -2, and is proven over a fast and sloppy track. Mike Smith chose this horse over a very strong Baffert candidate in Roadster despite his connection with Baffert.
- Omaha Beach has peaked too early, and is a very strong bounce candidate in the Derby. His most recent thorograph figure of a -2 represents a 4 point jump from his previous top, and from 1995 onwards 64.3% of horses who ran a -2 or better in their final prep have significantly regressed in the Derby. As the likely favorite coming off of 2 very strenuous efforts, he is a play against.

Vekoma:
+ Vekoma ran arguably the best race of any 2-year-old in the Nashua, and looked very strong in the Bluegrass. He sat too close to a scorching pace in the Fountain of Youth first off the bench, but came right back with a solid win. He has the right run style to sit just off the pace and make his move, so he should be able to avoid trouble in a crowded field like the Derby pending the draw. A step forward is possible third off the layoff.
- Vekoma, like Tacitus, does not qualify on the final fractions theory, coming home in a pedestrian 39.4 / 13.4 seconds for the final 3f / 1f in the Bluegrass. He is an ugly mover, as he runs with a paddling motion with his front legs, and the bottom half of his pedigree with Speightstown as a damsire suggests 10f will be too far for him. He also was the main beneficiary of a strong speed bias at Keeneland that day for his final prep.

Plus Que Parfait:
+ Plus Que Parfait is the only horse in the field proven at a distance greater than 9f on dirt, as he convincingly won the ~9.5f UAE Derby. His pedigree suggests he should love the extra ground of the Derby. He was able to close into a track known for a speed bias, even in spite of a new surface.
- No horse who has used the UAE Derby as their Kentucky Derby prep has ever run in the top 3 in the Kentucky Derby, with the best finish coming being fifth in 2011. The race is historically a terrible prep for the Run for the Roses, and this year’s field seems even weaker than usual. PQP was routinely trounced by local US competition and had to ship abroad to face inferior horses to even make the gate.

Roadster:
+ Roadster was the horse Baffert was most excited about as a 2 year old, earning him the nickname of “The TMZ horse.” He has been a monster since getting throat surgery to fix a breathing issue, and has beaten the consensus “top” Baffert horse in Game Winner in the SA Derby. He’s shown versatility in his running style, displaying an ability to close last out but also possessing the tactical speed to avoid trouble. He has every right to improve in his third start as a 3 year old.
- Roadster was the beneficiary of a very poor trip from his main rival, Game Winner, who ended up going 4 wide around both turns in a short field. Roadster still barely got up to win by a half-length, and his thorograph number of 2.25 was actually 2 points worse than Game Winner (0.25). Roadster’s last 2 wins have come in fields of 6 and 5 horses, respectively, and he will now have to navigate 19 other horses. Mike Smith defects to Omaha Beach despite a strong connection with Baffert, and this horse will likely be a short price on Derby day due to the recent hype.

By My Standards:
+ By My Standards has been really turning heads in the mornings since getting to Churchill with some very impressive workouts. He comfortably won the Louisiana Derby at a big price, recording an impressive Beyer of 97. He has rapidly improved his last 2 starts, and another move forward makes him competitive with the best in this field.
- The Louisiana Derby has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Grindstone in 1996, and is historically a weak prep compared to the others. By My Standards caught a weak field and was very fortunate when the heavy favorite, War of Will, took a bad step in the early part of the race and failed to fire his usual effort. By My Standards has lost against mediocre horses multiple times before this, and it’s more likely his Louisiana Derby effort was a flash in the pan against a weak field than a true coming out party.

Maximum Security:
+ Maximum Security enters the Derby as the only undefeated horse in the field. Since the adoption of the Kentucky Derby points system, every Derby winner has gone undefeated in their 3 year old season. He owns the field’s highest Beyer at 102, and the co-second highest Beyer of 101, and is the only horse with multiple 100+ Beyer races on his resume. His thorographs are strong despite never being asked for his best. He has the right running style for the Derby, with a lot of early speed but not the type to need the lead, and he has yet to even be challenged by his competition.
- Maximum Security is in significantly over his head. The horse debuted for a 16k claiming tag, and he wasn’t even claimed. Servis then pointed him to a restricted starter allowance race, which he won easily. Despite two monster victories, Servis, a clever and high percentage trainer, still did not point him to a stakes or prep race, but instead brings him back in yet another starter allowance race. Servis is an intelligent trainer, and he tried giving this horse away in his debut, and then only thought enough of him to enter him in two separate restricted starter allowance races despite large victories. When he finally entered stakes company in the Florida Derby, he got to walk the dog on the lead and set absolutely laughable fractions, so slow that a maiden was able to finish second simply by being near the lead. This is a horse who is just happy to be here and will fold with any real pace pressure going 10f.

Game Winner:
+ Game Winner is the most battle tested and consistent horse in the field. He had a tough trip in the SA Derby going 4 wide where he was likely not cranked all the way up, and his Rebel Effort was impressive for the first race off a layoff losing an incredibly close photo to the likely Derby favorite Omaha Beach. He should love the extra ground, and goes out for a trainer who knows a thing or two about getting his horses peaking at the right time.
- Game Winner has not exactly lived up to his name, as he’s been runner up twice in both of his starts as a 3 year old after being undefeated as a juvenile. The horses Game Winner was beating as a 2 year old have proven to be relatively weak moving into their 3 year old season. No other runner in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile even made the Kentucky Derby starting gate, with Signalman being closest listed as an Also Eligible. It could be fair to say that Game Winner may have matured a bit faster than his competition at 2, but now the field has caught up and he may have ceded an edge to the other top California based horses. He is the likeliest candidate in the field to hit the board, but it’s questionable if he will have that final kick to come in first.

Code of Honor:
+ Code of Honor ran a respectable third in a snails-paced Florida Derby where nobody was making up any ground. He goes out for top tier connections, and he has a jockey on board who is known for his ground saving trips. He has more tactical speed than some of the other deep closers in this field, so he should get first jump on the tiring leaders before the likes of Country House and Win Win Win can make their move.
- Code of Honor was the lucky beneficiary of an absolute pace meltdown in his Fountain of Youth victory, and in another 2 jumps Bourbon War was blowing right by him. He has not significantly improved on his thorograph 2 year old top, and would need a big jump forward coupled with a clean trip and a pace meltdown to even have a chance. There are other stalkers with more front speed than him and other closers with a better final kick.

Haikal:
+ Haikal has done little wrong in his career, with a record of 5: 3-1-1. He proved his Gotham score wasn’t a fluke by running a respectable third in the Wood, and he has one of the best closing kicks in the field. If the West’s elect to use MS as a rabbit and the pace heats up, look for him late.
- Haikal has managed to outrun his pedigree this far, but this is as far as talent will take him. A half-brother to Takaful, the 2017 G1 Vosburgh Sprint winner, this is a horse at his best running in a one turn mile or shorter. He was one of the few not significantly impacted by the poor start in the Wood, yet was still soundly beaten by the top two finishers.

Improbable
+ An early Derby favorite, Improbable’s only two losses have come by a combined length and a quarter with good excuses. He was very wide in both turns in the Rebel when getting nailed by Long Rang Toddy at the wire, and he acted up badly in the gate of the Arkansas when loading first and having to wait while trying blinkers for the first time. His natural ability and raw talent put him near the top of this field, and he has the second highest thorograph in the field with a -1. Any repeat of that effort or slight improvement is probably good enough to win.
- Improbable is another who is pedigree challenged to get the distance. City Zip is notorious for siring sprinters, and while the bottom side of his pedigree has stamina, his top side is pure speed. He gets yet another new rider, his third in three races. Baffert removes the blinkers after trying them last out, and you never like to see equipment changes trying to figure out a horse in the first Saturday in May.

War of Will
+ Draw a line through War of Will’s last race, as he lost all chance when he lost action in the first 100 yards. Outside of that, you have a horse who is undefeated on dirt, possesses a great stalking run style, and is bred to run for days. Proven over fast and off tracks, he has steadily improved and paired 1s on thorograph until the Louisiana Derby.
- War of Will breaks just about every Derby rule of thumb regarding final prep before the race. Final fraction, ground loss, finish no worse than fourth, he fails them all. Couple that with the chance that he is not 100% after the Louisiana Derby incident, and he becomes a horse who is very hard to trust.

Long Range Toddy
+ Long Rang Toddy is a horse who always tries his heart out. Toss his last race where he may not have cared for the slop, and you have a horse who is ultra-consistent and ever improving. He bested Improbable, one of the Baffert monsters, in the Rebel, and then likely bounced a bit in his last race. Another new top here could make him dangerous, as he projects to sit a good stalking trip.
- Long Range Toddy is a heartwarming story of a Remington Park horse making the Derby, but he just isn’t good enough. He only has one Beyer in the 90s, and even his best thorograph of 4 is significantly weaker than most of the field. He got lucky with a dream trip and a great ride to beat Improbable in the Rebel.

Tax:
+ Tax has seen massive improvement since Danny Gargan claimed him out of a maiden claiming $50,000 race back in October. He stumbled badly in the Withers yet came very strong to fight on and get the win. This horse is very game and has moved forward with each start. He was a good second to Tacitus in the Wood, and the result may have been different if Tacitus did not lean on him and induce him to the rail.
- Tax got a great trip in the Wood, as he was not dramatically impacted by the poor start and sat a perfect stalking trip behind two dueling leaders. Despite that, he still could not hold off Tacitus, who had a tougher trip all around. His final fractions are too slow, and he is simply an inferior version of Tacitus.

Cutting Humor:
+ Cutting Humor comes from the highly respected Pletcher barn after an impressive win over well-regarded Anothertwistafate in the Sunland Derby. His final 3f and 1f fractions are the fastest of any horse in the field today, and he is coming off a big effort. He gets 6 weeks rest to recover from that, making another big effort possible.
- Cutting Humor was beaten soundly in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, and he had to go to a much easier spot to secure his place in the starting gate on May 4th. No winner of the Sunland Derby has even won the Kentucky Derby, with Mine That Bird being the only horse to prep at Sunland and win the Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1. His final fraction times are artificially inflated due to how fast the track was playing that day, evidenced by his “just okay” Beyer of 95.

Win Win Win:
+ Win Win Win ran a lightning fast race in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa, and a repeat of that effort makes him very dangerous here. His last few losses have come with excuses, as he broke very slowly and was very wide in the Tampa Derby while favored over Tacitus. In the Bluegrass, he was the only horse to make up ground on the speed favoring track all day, and he was steadied badly while entering the stretch. It was very impressive to make up ground after losing all momentum, and he may have won that race with a better trip.
- Win Win Win can’t get out of his own way. He repeatedly breaks very poorly from the gate and has morphed from a horse running near the lead into a dead closer. He has a penchant for troubled trips, and his best races have come in shorter races. Julien Pimentel and Michael Trombetta are a respectable jockey/trainer pair, but they are outclassed against the best connections in the country.

Country House:
+ Country House has one of the best closing kicks in this entire field. He has been a bit of a slow learner, as he often breaks slow and lugged in down the stretch, but he has matured with every start. He may have run down War of Will if not for some green racing down the stretch in the Risen Star. He has never been out of the money in all his tries on dirt and looms a major threat when turning for home.
- Ultra-deep closers like Country House are massively disadvantaged in the Kentucky Derby since the inception of the points system, and Country House routinely spots the field 10 lengths from the onset. There is not a lot of early pace signed on in this field, and he would need an absolute pace meltdown with a dream trip to have a chance of getting the win. He lost ground in the stretch run of the Arkansas Derby to both Omaha Beach and Improbable, never something you want to see from your deep closer.

Gray Magician:
+ Gray Magician took a nice step forward when switching to the Peter Miller barn and stretching out in distance and moved forward again when going from the 1-mile races in California to the 1900m UAE Derby. It’s quite possible he further improves adding another furlong at Churchill. He has some tactical speed, so he could sit a nice trip just off the leaders to avoid trouble.
- He’s simply too slow. His career best Beyer is nearly 20 points slower than the top contenders here, and he was embarrassed when facing competition in California who weren’t good enough to even make the Derby trying US preps. The UAE Derby was very weak, and it is a poor prep even with a strong field.

Spinoff:
+ Spinoff was very impressive in his 3-year-old debut, winning by daylight in a Tampa allowance race before running a respectable second in the Louisiana Derby. He has the perfect run style, listed as an E/P 7 (pace pressing) on Brisnet, which has produced the most Derby winners in recent years (Justify, American Pharoah, California Chrome). His pedigree suggests he should handle the distance, and he’s lightly raced and eligible to continue improving.
- Todd Pletcher, an unquestionably excellent trainer, boasts a record of 2 for 49 in the Kentucky Derby. Velasquez, the routine first call pilot for the Pletcher barn and normal rider of Spinoff, ends up on Code of Honor instead. In the Louisiana Derby, Spinoff had every right to win that race turning for home and instead was easily passed by a 22-1 maiden facing winners for the first time in By My Standards. He is not as battle tested as others, so he may not respond well to the large field and massive crowd at Churchill.

Master Fencer:
+ Master Fencer is the only horse in the field to have run 10 furlongs, not once but twice, albeit on the turf. He finished second and fourth in those efforts while not embarrassing himself in either.
- Master Fencer is just a horse who is happy to be here, as his presence opens the Derby to Japanese betting markets. Foreign horses typically do terribly in the Derby, he is a dead closer, and he wasn’t even Japan’s top point earner. In fact, there were 3 Japanese horses ahead of him in the points standings, all of whom declined the invitation to the Derby. He was beaten by Derma Louvre in the Hyacinth, who went on to run a non-threatening 4th in the UAE Derby.
Edit: thank you kind internet strangers for the silver and gold! My first of each!

Key Races for Saturday, Other analysis & TVG clips

My Preakness Analysis

The Preakness should be a pretty good race to bet this year mostly because most have marks against them and the race looks wide open. This is the type of race I enjoy betting the most because there is always value if you can figure out who will move forward and who will regress or is simply outclassed. So my thoughts are below for those who likes an opinion of what might happen. Or maybe not, but I will at least take a small chance based on the way I see it.

War Of Will(4-1)---- I ended up betting him to WP in the Ky Derby when I saw the track was going to be sloppy. However, when he was going down the stretch the first time, it look to me like he was bothered by the kickback of the off track and took a while to get used to it. While he lost a couple of lengths when he got tangled up with MS and a couple of others, he was able to make most of it back up when MS swerved back towards the rail and bumped with COH turning for home. His jockey sensing he still was in the thick of it, used him pretty hard in the stretch and faded late. Since he has no works since that start that I can use as a measuring stick to how he came out of that start, I will try to beat him and will look at others to include in my exotics.

2) Bourbon War(12-1)---- Last seen running 4th in the Fla Derby where he had little chance of catching the pace setters through slow fraction for a G1 race. So that race is a toss for me. However, in the FOY, he was allowed to wait until the pace setters burned each other out and he was along in time to pick up the pieces. In the Preakness, he will be facing better horses than he faced that day, so I believe he will not benefit from tiring front runners in this race as much as he did in that race. And with the addition of blinkers, it helps some horses but is also a detriment to other horses by making them to keen to go to early. So while he definitely has a chance to win, I will be looking elsewhere.

3) Warrior's Charge(12-1)---- After opening his career with 3 thirds in three maiden special weights against several good sprinters, he has won his last two going away after being stretch out and being put on the lead, both in good times. Supplemented to this race for $150,000, he sports the same trainer as Monomoy Girl, who beat the best 3 YO fillies racing had to offer last year, using similar tactics. Warrior's Charge's sire Munnings, is a look alike replica of Secretariat, including the built, three white socks and the blazed face. However, he was bred with too much speed influence to resemble Secretariat on the track, though he is inbred to him. However, his broodmare sire, Broken Vow, is a son of Unbridled out of a daughter of Nijinsky II, so that should give him enough stamina to be a major factor, especially since starting with Warrior's Charge's 4th dam, you see, Roberto, Tom Fool, Princequillo, War Admiral and the best bloodlines racing had to offer in dams for generations on back. So, he will be included in my exotics. A definite in my trifecta and super boxes.

4) Improbable(5-2)----The morning line favorite for this race and off as the favorite in the Ky Derby, he really had no shot to win the derby as he was behind a wall of horses for most of that running with no room to get through until he was left with too much to do. With such a good jockey on him, you should have expected a much better ride than he actually got. Now Baffert goes to his main jockey over the last few years, gives his a horse a maintenance breeze, indicating he came out of the derby ready to get another shot at winning and he certainly would be no real surprise if he did just that. While I will definitely include him in my super box, at least, I will go for others in my exacta, trifecta and WP bets.

5) Owendale(10-1)---- Another trained by Brad Cox, his best race came in the G3 Lexington S and while it was decent, I believe he will need to step up his game to a level he has not shown yet to be a factor, so I will pass.

6) Market King(30-1)--- Another who will need by far a career best even to compete against these, so he is another pass for me.

7) Alwaysmining(8-1)---- I feel he is a wise guy type of horse and he has beaten very little except Win Win Win but that came on a good track and at a distance he should have like more than that horse. His trainer is trying for his first G1 win and he picked a tough spot to accomplished that. Even Signalman has beaten him and he simply looks like a horse for the course type and he has never won away from Laurel Park. Will make him beat me, especially at his projected odds.

8) Signalman(30-1)--- Here is one that would be a mistake to not at least consider. He has two starts this year, the first in the FOY when his trainer tried to get him ready by working him in a 46 3/5, followed by a slow work, then another good work, followed by another slow work, indicating he was not ready to fire. Then after two more good works to sharpen his speed, he ran him in the Blue Grass S on Keeneland's heavy speed favoring track, changed the horse's running style to keep him close to the pace and he flatten out late to just miss 2nd. He decided early to bypass the derby because he was on the outside needing a couple of scratches and pointed him towards this race instead. Four more solid works since the BG and he is sitting on ready. And for those of you who does not know who Ken McPeek is, he has trained a Ky Derby runner up in 1995(Tejano Run), A Belmont S winner(Sarava at 70-1 denying War Emblem a TC and beating Medaglia D'Oro in 2002), and a Travers DH winner(Golden Ticket at 30-1 finished in a DH with Alpha in 2012). He was also trainer of Take Charge Lady and more recently, Daddy's Lil Darling. I hope they let him off at 30-1 because I will slam them. On all my exotics bets.

9) Bodexpress(20-1)--- While still a maiden, he had a pretty good run going in the Ky Derby before he was taken up and lost all chance. However, he is bred to love the off going and it was probably the biggest reason he was still in that race that late. He probably will not get the conditions that will flatter his style in this start, so I will pass on using him.

10) Everfast(50-1)--- Will need by far a career best and I can not phantom where he will get that from. Pass.

11) Laughing Fox(20-1)--- His only race worth noting was the Ark Derby and someone had to run 4th in that race and the top two were much the best. So he will need a major improvement, just to get close to hitting the board, so I will have to pass.

12) Anothertwistafate(6-1)---- Another who I think will be overbet for what he has accomplished and both G3 defeats came against others who would look (or does) overmatched in here. Pass, not willing to accept low odds on this one.

13) Win Win Win(15-1) --- He was the horse I liked the most heading up to the Ky Derby, but I ended up changing my mind because of the sloppy conditions, his outside post on that track and his BG run gave me some doubt he could give it his best run after such a hard race to just become eligible. I usually find it hard to bet any horse in their next start(or I often regret doing so) after he checked and then had to closed that much ground in such a short stretch. And he ended up proving either that thought was right or that he was simply not good enough. I am going with the former thought because I know how difficult it is to close on sloppy racetracks without a blazing pace, something he did not get in the derby. He will be in all my exotics tomorrow.

My Bets: $40 WP 8, $5 Ex Box 8-13, $2 Ex Box 3-8-13, $1 Tri Box 3-8-13, $3 Tri Key 8 With 3-13 with 3-13, $4 Tri Key 8-13 with 8-13 with 3, .10 Super Box 3-4-8-13, $2 Super Key 8 With 3-4-13 with 3-4-13 with 3-4-13. Total Cost $136.40. Good Luck To All!!

Preview of the Pegasus World Cup and more

We will be solely focused on Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. as the two richest races in the country are set to be run.
The co-featured races include the $9 million Pegasus World Cup for four year olds and up, and the inaugural running of the $7 million Pegasus World Cup Turf, also for four year olds and up.
The entire Gulfstream card on Saturday is a blockbuster as they will run nine Stakes races all told and we will be examining six of them.
They include: The Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, which came up very competitive, the Hurricane Bertie, which will feature the 2019 debut of 2018 Female Champion Sprinter winner Shamrock Rose, the La Prevoyante Stakes, a marathon event for fillies and mares, and the Fred W Hooper, another well matched field going a mile on the dirt.
Before moving forward, as most of you know, I will do a now and again “Back-Track” segment and talk about what happened last weekend.
There was so much talent on display last weekend I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about the five horses who were very impressive in their respective races.
In no particular order, Dessman, an enormous, roughly 1,250 pound, $750,000 son of Union Rags absolutely waltzed home a 7 ½ length winner in his debut. Albeit a bit green, I loved how he was moving down the lane, his stride is impeccible and he will only get better with experience. As Justify taught us last year, it’s not too late for this gorgeous bay colt to make the Derby.
Win Win Win was visually impressive coming from last, circling the field on the outside and blew the doors off his competitors in the Pasco Stakes. The son of Hat Trick won by 7 1/4 lengths. He didn’t just break the track record for seven furlongs while winning for the third time in four starts, he shattered it, getting the distance is 1:20.4 over a notoriously tiring Tampa Bay Downs surface.
Americandy was also impressive in breaking his maiden first time out at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. The colt by Candy Ride missed the break and was dead last at first call. He too unleashed a powerful run around “the hook” while going a ridiculous six wide, yet powered away from his rivals in winning by two “going away” lengths.
Also at the Fair Grounds, War of Will stalked the early pace, took over at the six furlong marker and cruised to an easy four length win in the Le Comte Stakes. He exudes class and I look forward to what this hybrid grass/dirt runner will do down the road.
The highly touted, $500,000 Flor de La Mar was no secret as she went off at 1/5 in her racing debut and lived up to the hype while decimating her rivals in her racing debut. The titanic filly, who outworked Dessman in the mornings, has a big, beautiful, long, loping stride that covers a ton of ground effortlessly, seems to have a really big future.
Lastly, crack sprinter X Y Jet got caught in protracted and wicked speed duel (:21 flat and :43.2) and understandably tired badly at the eighth pole. He’ll live to fight another day.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Gulfstream Park
Race: 3 (12:30 PM EST Post)
Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes
This is a really good race, one where the break will be the key. That said, and even though he was run down in deep stretch by Stormy Liberal in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in November, I still think World of Trouble has a world of talent. Albeit he’s never run on a turf course labeled firm, he’s run huge in all three turf starts. The cut back in distance off his sloppy tracked, colossal margin win in his last should hit him right between the eyes here. A 23% Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the leg up from a scalding hot (12-32= 38%) Jason Servis and with no speed to his inside, he should be able to work out a good trip in this spot……………………..This race sets up very well for 2018 Champion Male Turf Horse Stormy Liberal. The now seven year old, stretch runner figures to “sit the trip” behind the plethora of speed in this spot and make his run down the lane. You can go ahead and throw out that last race on the downhill course at Santa Anita as he was too close to an insanely fast early pace (:42 half mile). The 4 for 4 record at this distance is impressive as is the bullet work (5F- :59.4) last week…a must use in any exotics betting scenarios……………………Pay Any Price is faster than a proverbial speeding bullet as he consistently rattles off sub :22 second first quarters and sub :45 second half miles. The nine year old veteran is an astounding 15 for 25 in his career including being a mind boggling 12 for 17 on this oval. A white hot Paco Lopez (5 for his last 16 through Wednesday of this week) is the perfect (speed) rider for this horse as well. He probably needed his troubled trip last as it was his first start in three months. Lastly, I did find it interesting that he has no published works since Dec. 19………………Honorable Mentions: Am I the only one who is intrigued that Recruiting Ready is making his turf debut against two of the nation’s best turf sprinters? It took me a minute but I think I see it. Note the one and only turf work he shows at Palm Meadows last week as it was tremendous; going 4F in :47.4 with dogs up. Perhaps trainer Stanley Hough, who is no babe in the woods, saw something there………………..My long-shot toss in is Oak Bluffs, who has shown next to nothing in four of his last five outings. But note he is a 16 time winner and this is clearly his favorite surface as his 10-3-5-0 record on this turf course would indicate. (My Play: $1 trifecta box using all five. Cost: $60.00)

Race: 7 (2:30 PM EST Post)
Hurricane Bertie Stakes
Shamrock Rose was super impressive when coming “over the top” to pull off a colossal upset (26-1) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint in November. That win was her fourth straight to end 2018 and propelled her to an Eclipse Award for Champion Female Sprinter. This good looking daughter of the strapping First Dude, who is 2 for 2 at this distance, handled what appears to be her biggest threat in this race (Blamed) with ease back in October and she has been working very well for her 2019 debut.. She is no slam dunk in this spot as this track goes against the grain of her deep closer running style, but she might pick up where she left off last year …………….....………The aforementioned Blamed sports a very impressive 8-6-2-0 career mark. Filly by Blame wired the field in the Nov 23rd Comely Stakes in her swan song race of 2018. Although this will be her first start since, she has run well off of long breaks several times before…..looks next best………………………….The regally bred Dream Pauline is three for four in her career with all three wins coming on three different surfaces, so you have to like her adaptability. This filly by Tapit out of Grade: 1 Test Stakes winner Dream Rush will be stretching out to seven panels for the first time and stepping up in class as well, but she is another who is training well and you get the third start off the layoff angle…………………Honorable Mentions: If you draw a line through Stormy Embrace’s Breeders’ Cup debacle, you’ll see this five year old mare had a very strong 2018 (7-4-1-2). She has hit the board in 7 of 9 tries at this distance and 7 of 9 on the oval. That, readers, is consistency…..could conceivably better this rating……………………I had a difficult time separating Ms Meshak and Pacific Gale for the fifth slot in my “go to” five horse, trifecta box. I’m going to go with Ms Meshak based on the fact that she is batting .500 on this track and appears to be coming into this in good form while winning back to back races vs. lesser. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the top five. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 8 (3:00 PM EST Post)
La Prevoyante Stakes
Si Que Es Buena is an Argentinian import who rallied strongly from twelfth position early to finish fourth, beaten by just one length, in her U.S. debut in New York. She came back and overcame a mistimed move by her rider to gamely win a minor Stakes race on this turf course last time out. Although she didn’t break any track records and her speed figures were average at best, she still looks best in this wide open affair………………….Tricky Escape had a three race win streak snapped when probably overmatched in the Grade: 1 Flower Bowl back in October. She bounced back nicely off of that effort when finishing a close second in the Grade: 3 Long Island Stakes while finishing ahead of my top pick at the same time. The Grade: 3 level looks like her comfort zone, so she should be competitive here……………………………. Santa Monica disappointed while showing zilch in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last time out. But this good looking, now six year old mare, had run bang up in all five previous U.S. starts and it would be no surprise if she bounces back and runs big here………………..Honorable Mentions: English Affair finished off 2018 strongly with a close up, third place finish at Keeneland, then overcame a slow pace to take the Cardinal Handicap at Churchill Downs. Threat if she picks up where she left off………………………..Although Holy Helena has never tried this distance before, she was a fast closing second behind my top pick at 1 3/16ths miles late time out. Filly by the wickedly fast Ghostzapper is 3 for 7 on the turf and has serious “back class” while winning the Queens Plate (Canadian Kentucky Derby) in 2017. (My play: .50 trifecta box, all 5. Cost $30.00)

Race: 9 (3:30 PM EST Post)
Fred W. Hooper Stakes
Coal Front not only bounced back to his winning ways while blasting his rivals in the Grade: 3 “Mr. P” Stakes last time out, but did so by showing a new dimension. This speedy, $575,000 son of Stay Thirsty assumed a stalking position that day, took the lead on “the hook” and scampered away late to win by almost four lengths. I’m not worried he’ll be going a mile in this spot as a) he showed no signs of not being able to handle an extra furlong in the Mr. P and b) this is still a one turn race for this ridgling who is 5 for 7 in his career. It’ll be interesting to see the plan of attack here as we know he has excellent early speed and draws the rail, yet was successful using rating tactics last time out…………………Unbridled Juan won three of his last four in Maryland to close out 2018. Although this will be his first start in some 2 ½ months he does run well fresh and he likes this track as his 4-2-1-1 record over it would indicate………………………After winning 3 of 11 starts and $68,000 in 2017, Aztec Sense came back and had a “perfect” 2018 while winning all eight starts and over $400,000. His speed figures are on par or better than most of these and he mirrors Unbridled Juan in the sense he likes this track (3 for 4 over it) and he runs well fresh……..scary………………Honorable Mentions: Copper Town’s last race was too bad to be true. This good looking son of wide spectrum sire Speightstown blew through maidens and two allowance levels but completely mailed it in last time out in the Cigar Mile. He’s had 56 days off to “regroup” and it won’t surprise me at all if he outruns this rating…………………………My long-shot throw in is Fellowship, who has shown very little in his last several races while going just 1 for 10 in 2018. But he is back on his home track, where he has made over $500,000, and he is going to pop a big race one of these days. (My Play: .50 trifecta using all 5. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 11 (4:30 PM EST Post)
Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes
Yoshida looks the one to beat here as this now five year old is a Grade: 1 winner on the dirt (Woodward Stakes) and on the turf (Churchill Turf Classic)….that’s impressive. Also impressive was his Breeders’ Cup Classic effort. This Bill Mott trainee bobbled at the break and soon found himself near the back of the pack and some 14-15 lengths out of it. He then launched a brazen, six wide run on “the hook” and, although understandably hanging like a cheap suit in deep stretch, he was only beaten by less than two lengths behind Horse of the Year candidate Accelerate. He has worked well since over the notoriously deep track at Payson Park and this distance should be no problem at all. Slight edge in wide open horse race that features three females and several Grade: 1 winners…………………….In taking Yoshida, Catapult scares me. This $350,000 son of Kitten’s Joy had a very good, albeit brief, 2018 highlighted by just missing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile last time out. He won back to back Grade: 2’s prior to that in California and finished both races in very quick final times. I’m not worried this will be his first start since the BC since a) I love his work pattern as he shows three stamina building, six furlong works topped off by solid five furlong works and b) he is still another who seems to run well fresh…..dangerous foe………………….Although Bricks and Mortar will be taking a major league class hike here and stretching out in distance, he is about 1 ½ lengths away from unbeaten in seven starts. This stretch runner by the late super sire Giant’s Causeway finished just inches behind Yoshida the two times they’ve squared off and he shows a monster work (5F- :59.2) at Palm Meadows last week……………………………….Honorable Mentions: If you draw a line through Next Share’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile debacle, you’ll see he’s won three straight including pulling off a major upset in the Grade: 1 Shadwell Turf Mile three starts back. In his current form, he could better this rating………………….A similar thing can be said for Channel Maker, who also showed little in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile but ran bang up in his three previous races, including winning a Grade: 1. ……………………..Delta Prince, who is a half brother to multiple Eclipse Champion, the late Royal Delta, returns to his preferred surface (turf) and has hit the board in 10 of 11 career tries, Aerolithe, a gray mare from Japan who sports a 13-4-5-0 record and gets the “dark horse” label in here and Magic Wand, a four year old filly who set the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and held well in deep stretch, all merit consideration…but you can’t play them all. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the first five. Cost: $30.00)

Race: 12 (5:00PM EST Post)
Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes
2018 Champion Older Male and Horse of the Year runner up Accelerate really needs no introduction as his 2018 season was remarkable. The now six year old son of two time champion Lookin’ at Lucky won six of seven starts including an eye popping five Grade: 1’s highlighted by the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Trainer John Sadler looks to have this chestnut “revved up” for swan song race as he shows three straight bullet works capped off by a visually impressive 5F in :58.4 this past week. …………………………Aside from possibly Enable and Newspaperofrecord, City of Light’s tour de force win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile might have been THE most impressive win I saw throughout the entire Breeders’ Cup weekend. This gorgeous son of Quality Road broke running that day and never looked back. He too has run a hole in the wind in the morning since and he also should be “fully cranked up” here for his farewell race. That said, and even though he is 1 for 1 with a win over Accelerate at it, I don’t think nine furlongs is his best distance. From what I’ve seen his “wheel house” is between seven and eight and a half furlongs and that, readers, could play a part in the outcome. Past that, Castellano appears to be sitting on a keg of dynamite here……………………..I hate to put the drop dead gorgeous Audible this far down, I really do. I expect this $500,000 son of Into Mischief to be major force in the older make division in 2019 as, even though he severely disappointed at 1/5 in his last (prep) race for this, he has an enormous amount of talent. I generally don’t buy trainers excuses for losses but I am completely selling out on what trainer Todd Pletcher said about how “he didn’t handle the sealed/wet track.” Head hunters in New Guinea and lost tribes in the Amazon could see this colt struggling with the surface in that race especially leaving the three eighths pole and around “the hook”. Bottom line here is he is an exotics inclusion for me for sure…………………….Honorable Mentions: Gunnevera was jostled at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Classic but was coming hard, late and was just one length behind Accelerate in a super good effort. This big chestnut by Dialed In was charging hard, late behind Yoshida in the Woodward prior to that, so he is certainly in good form and clearly has ability. I like his work pattern coming into this also as he shows a steady line of stamina building works, signaling to me he might run big once again in this spot…………………..Patternrecognition comes into this razor sharp off three consecutive “coast to coast” scores in his last three, highlighted by taking down the Grade: 1 Cigar Mile in his last. They better not let him cruise on an easy lead or he may prove difficult to catch late…………………Just a few other notes about this race: I wonder which Bravazo will show up on Saturday? The one that got beat narrowly by Justify in the Preakness, you know, the same one who got beat by a neck in the Clark Handicap last time out or the one who lays an egg like in the Pennsylvania Derby back in September? Either way, as tough as he is, as he was the only horse other than Justify to run in all three Triple Crown races, that 2 for 11 record in 2018 just doesn’t do it for me………………………..Tom’s d’Etat has won 6 of 9 starts, including his last four in a row by a combined 22 lengths, vs. far, far lesser and his speed figures aren’t all that bad…………………..Mexican Triple Crown winner Kukulan, who is 14 for 14 in his career and no one has ever been close to beating him, should be fun to watch. His prep race was visually impressive to watch but his final time (1:54.4 for this nine furlong distance) and his speed figure that day (70), will get him blown away in this race. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the first five. Cost: $30.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team

[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])

2019- Record: 4-11 = 36% (My Plays: -$258.05)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Four-time Eclipse Award champion Beholder delivered a bay filly by Curlin Jan. 19th at Spendthrift Farm in Lexington.
"Beholder had a very nice Curlin filly this afternoon, and we're happy to report both mother and foal are doing really well," said Ned Toffey, general manager at Spendthrift. "We couldn't be prouder of Beholder. She is such a professional and continues to perform beautifully in her second career as a broodmare. We've been very fortunate. The delivery was as normal and straightforward as you could ask for.
The filly was born at 4:25 p.m. and "jumped right up" according to Toffey. She is the second foal for Beholder, who had an Uncle Mo colt (named Q B One) last year.
Mating plans for Beholder in 2019 have yet to be announced.

**** 2018 Two Year old Male Champion Game Winner had his second work of 2019 last Sunday at Santa Anita Park, breezing a half-mile in :48.3 for trainer Bob Baffert. The 3 year old son of Candy Ride is being pointed to the San Felipe Stakes on March 9th as his first start of the season.
“He'll get ready pretty quick,” Baffert said.
Other notables on the work tab last Sunday:
Coliseum, trained by Baffert and most recently finished sixth in the Sham after a bad start, breezed five furlongs from the gate in 1:00.4.
Improbable, also trained by Baffert, worked a half in :48 flat.
Instagrand, winner of the Best Pal Stakes in August, breezed a half-mile in 47.3.
Sham Stakes winner Gunmetal Gray breezed five furlongs in 1:02.4.

**** …………Annnnnnnnnd finally in the occasional “This has nothing to do with Horse Racing” section.
UPS driver Ryan Arens was on his route shortly before Christmas when he pulled up to a house in Bozeman, Montana, and heard a dog in distress by a pond beyond the house where he was delivering.
"This dog was screaming and crying and going crazy," Arens said.
With the sun was nearly set, Arens couldn’t see anything. He delivered a package and then drove to the other side of the pond.
"I could see the dog trapped about 10-15 feet off of shore, with ice all around it," he said.
An older man was in a rowboat on the pond, trying with little success to chip away the ice to reach the dog.
"I stripped to my boxers and got the guy out of the boat. Then, I slid the boat out onto the ice, using it to distribute my weight," Arens said. "I shimmed out to where the ice was thin."
The ice gave way and Arens fell out of the boat and into the 16-feet-deep water. Since he was already wet and, with the "dog starting to go under," Arens started swimming quickly towards the dog.
He grabbed her collar and swam for the ice, sliding the dog across the ice to shore. He pulled himself out of the water and a bystander handed him a blanket.
"We took the dog inside the older guy's house and got in the shower together to warm up," he said.
About then, the sheriff's department and animal control arrived. Help was on the way, but "I knew someone had to get to her. She wasn't going to make it."
Despite his adventure and cuts on his leg, Arens finished his route, delivering 20 more packages.
"It was the highlight of my 14-year UPS career." Arebs said afterwards.
Arens found out where the dog's owner lived and happened to have a package to deliver to him. As he walked up, he saw the dog, whose name he learned is Sadie, in the guy's pickup.
"She was freaking out, and when he let her out she ran to me," he said. "She must have remembered me. It sure made me feel good."

My Picks For Churchill Downs, Saturday June 15

There are 5 graded stakes card and the undercard looks competitive, also, at Churchill Downs. There is also a G1 race for Arabians only but I will not even attempt to pick that race, much less wager on it. The first race is for grass maiden special weights and the last(11th), which is a maiden claiming race, looks mostly likely for an upset. The rest mostly looks like runners that will be highly regarded. Also, I may have a couple of races at Woodbine Saturday and Sunday that I will post if I decide to bet them, including one that will pay handsomely if the horses runs to their bloodlines(their works suggest it is possible, too if you are wondering).

Saturday--- CD 1st Race: Maiden Special Weight---- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $95,000--- 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf:

My choice to win will be 6)Tohui(20-1). He will be making his first start and has three nice works but none in 4 weeks. However his works were at a training center close by, so they may have been working him but may not have release or recorded any recent activity, which they are not required to with the exception of one recognized work within 2 months of an actual race. His sire is Distorted Humor, who foals I bet often on grass or off tracks. His Dam, Rosee Is Cozee, won 5 races in her career, 3 on TP AWT and 2 grass races and her only stakes placing was a 3rd in the Ky Downs Ladies Turf S. 20 her 22 starts came on AWT tracks and on grass, with 13 being on the board finishes. The other 2 were off the turf races and she did not run a lick in either. Tohui, trainer and part owner, Jurado, also the same with her. One other note, Tohui was sent through 2 sales as a yearling with a $95K reserved and was brought home bought times. However, trainer then went out and found someone interested in a partnership and decided to race him, instead of selling him for less than he thought he was worth. While this does not guarantee a winner(nothing does), it is impressive enough that he thought well enough of the horse to keep him and therefore, worth taking a chance on.

8) A.K. Safari(8-1) is my choice for second. He has started 5 times in his career with 4 starts on grass, including a second, while running against decent horses. His only dirt try was a dull effort against War Of Will. He has had one start this year, an even 5th at GP in February, but is working solidly for this engagement, including 2 bullet works since arriving at CD. Would be no surprise for the win, especially if top choice falters.

4) Life Mission(5-1) is my choice for the third slot. He has started 8 times with 3 seconds and 2 thirds. However, his 2 thirds came in Europe and his 3 seconds all came in listed stakes here in the U.S. All three of his unplacings came against maiden special weights. His sire is Noble Mission, a multiple G1 SW and full brother to Frankel & Bullet Train. His broodmare sire, Johannesburg, was an unbeaten 2 YO champion in Europe & the U.S. but is better known as sire of Scat Daddy. Will not be a maiden for too much longer. Won't overlook.

2)Road To Peace(15-1) is my choice for the fourth spot. He is also a first time starter who has some good works, but, to my surprise, his trainer has a horrible recent record with first time starters, lasix and turf starters. However, he is above average as a trainer over all, including training such notables as Oscar Performance, Heart To Heart, and Grand Arch, among many others. His sire, multiple G1 winner Quality Road and his dam, multiple G1 winner Diplomat Lady, all on dirt but both comes from top siring families of grass runners. In with a good shot to upset.

My Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 6-8, Tri Box 4-6-8, .10 Super Box 2-4-6-8, Super Key 6 with 2-4-8 with 2-4-8 with 2-4-8.

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Race 2: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YO & Up Fillies--- Purse $95,000--- 1 Mile:

4) Doll Collection(4-1) is my choice to win. She has started twice with a 3rd place finish as her best effort. But she was checked in the turn on a muddy track and then made up almost 4 lengths in the stretch and the combination of the two probably drained her of energy. While she worked twice in good time before her next effort, that effort suggested that she was indeed low on energy, resulting in a flat performance. Now she has two more works since, also good, but has the pattern I am looking for with the best one first with just an easy breeze to be sure she is fit following, the first time in her career her trainer has followed this pattern. Her sire is Tapit and her dam multiple G1 winner Groupie Doll won back to back runnings of both the Presque Isles Masters S and G1 BC F&M Sprint. But she also ran twice against the boys in the G1 Cigar Mile H, finishing 2nd and then 4th, both immediately after her BC victories. Doll Collection adds blinkers for this test.

6) Champagne Tale(5-1) is my choice for the 2nd spot. She has started six times with a second and a third her only two board finishes. She looked poised to break her maiden late last year but then shipped to OP where she ran 3 even races without hitting the board. I believe she simply did not like the track as it favored speed heavier than I have seen in years. She has 5 works since her last race, 3 very good ones followed by two easier ones to be sure she has retained her conditioning.

3) Web O' Gold(9-2) is my choice for the third spot. She has started 8 times with 5 seconds and a third. All the seconds were last year in six starts. This year she has started twice and finished third one, her last effort and the last 5 efforts was at 1 1/16 miles, which is probably just a tab further than her best distance. While her sire, Hard Spun, had no problem going 1 1/4 miles, so far his foals wants no more than 1 1/8 miles. However, more important, her broodmare sire, Gone West, is notorious for siring sprinters that have trouble carrying their speed even a mile, much less any longer. Bullet work noted since her last, also. After a failed try of adding blinkers, they are being removed for this start. While I think she has a shot at winning, I like my top two better.

10) Templuna(20-1) is my choice for 4th. While there are several who could easily been put in this spot, I like her the best. She has two starts, with her last being an improvement over her first start, though the winner out of that race came back and won a G1 in her second lifetime start with authority. And though the trainer is not well known in Ky, he will win one at the bigger Illinois tracks when you overlook one of his trainees. She has two good works since her last start, indicating she is ready to run her best race yet.

My Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 4-6, Tri Box 3-4-6, .10 Super Box 3-4-6-10, Super Key 4 with 3-6-10 with 3-6-10 with 3-6-10.

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Race 3: Allowance O/C $80,000---- 3 YO & Up----- Purse $101,000---- 6 1/2 Furlongs:

2) Loose On The Town(4-1) is my choice to win. He has started once this year and only 4 times combined in 2018-19. His only effort this year is even better than it looks on paper as he bobbled at the start, which could not help, but he kept trying throughout the race, though he flatten out in deep stretch, an indication he need the start. However, trainer was apparently pleased with that effort because he gave him 3 maintenance breezes instead of trying to put more speed in him since that effort to maintain his fitness, not to get him fitter, which more often than not backfires on those who believes horses need faster works. A horse can only get so fit, no need to make him leave his best race in a workout, which happens so often.

3) Pete's Play Call(9-2) is my choice for the 2nd spot. He is making his first start of the year but his trainer is actually notorious for being horses back off long layoffs, despite what his recent stat suggest. While this horse is taking a step up in class, his only other choice was either conditioned allowances or to enter in a claiming race for a tag, something he may not have wanted to risk. This is the next condition of the optional claiming levels, also. And like my top choice, this trainer got this horse fit and now has been giving him maintenance breezes while he waits for the right spot to enter. He has worked a total of fifteen times since his last race, so trainer knows he is ready to give his best effort.

7) He Hate Me(15-1) is my choice for the third spot. While he ran third in his last after a winning effort, a signal I now use to help me determine if and when a horse has peaked, he does not fit that angle based off his last race. First, that race was ran in the mud with a finishing time of 109 2/5. Next, he went 6 wide in the turn and lost even more valuable ground. But there are not many who will run down the front running speed that got that big of ahead start on a fast track, much less an off track, without them literally slowing to a crawl, which they didn't. He has started 8 times in his career, so he still has room for improvement with a little more experience. He has five works since his last start, but it is backwards of what I prefer as the works have gotten faster as the race approaches and for this reason, I will put him third, though he could win if top two are not at their best.

6) Mr Crow(4-1) is my choice for fourth. He has ran in the toughest class of all these and would be no surprise for the win. However, he has not indicated, to me at least, that he is in top form, though he is not far off. He has started twice this year and finished third in an effort he definitely needed, then a close fourth in a stakes race that saw him pick up one horse throughout the race in a six horse field and a couple who beat him would be outsiders in here.

My Bets: WP 2, Ex Box 2-3, Tri Box 2-3-7, ,10 Super Box 2-3-6-7, Super Key 2 with 3-6-7 with 3-6-7 with 3-6-7.
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4th Race: Allowance---- 3 YO & Up F&M---- Purse $97,000--- One And 1/8 Mile Turf:

2) Dalika (4-1) is my choice to win. She started one this year and that was her first start in the U.S. also. She broke slowly and grinded her way closer to the front runners as she fought restraint at one mile on grass. That was a good effort and she has back class. She broke her maiden in a handicap and then ran 2nd in the listed Prix Herod S, both against colts. But she is also the only 3 YO entered in this race, so she will get a small weight break on the weight for age scale. Her sire, Pastorius, is a G1 winning son of Soldier Hollow(a grandson of Sadler's Wells) and her broodmare sire, Hurricane Run, is a G1 winning son of Montjeu(son of Sadler's Wells) and out of a daughter of Surumu, Germany's best distance sire line dating back to the mid 1800's. Bloodlines is there, class is there, and jockey needs to just hold on and enjoy the ride!

7) Bridaled Temper(7-2) is my choice for second. As I was looking at this race, I wanted to put her on top, but since she has 5 second place finishes in her 10 lifetime starts, this is probably the best spot for her. She has started once this year and that was an even effort. However, she seems to be begging for a little more distance as her broodmare sire, Sadler's Wells, has spent his career breeding foals that is only starting to warm up at 1 1/4 mile, especially on grass. But she has to beat a Sadler's Wells inbred in here that will probably get first jump on her and that is probably too much to overcome.

1) Joy Of Treasure (8-1) is my choice for third. He has started three times this year and after breaking his maiden claiming, has tried starter allowance and then condition allowance(the class of this field) at 1 1/2 mile, while finishing mid pack in both. Both starts were good from the experience standpoint and he should be ready to fire his best shot since this will mark his third race after a winning effort. His sire, Kitten's Joy, is yet another grandson of Sadler's Wells and his broodmare sire, Catienus, is a son of Storm Cat. With the cut back in distance, he should be flying late to get a piece.

3) Napier (3-1) is my choice for fourth. She has 2 lifetime starts, the first when she broke her maiden and then her last, when she set the pace in the same conditions as this race, but tired late to finish fourth in her first start against winners. However, she is stretching out another 1/16 mile and there is plenty of other front running speed sign on. Both her sire and broodmare sire are suspect at this distance, but her dam family shows both Nureyev, a 3/4 brother to Sadler's Wells and Nijinsky II, the current last winner of England's TC for 3 YOs in 1970.

My Bets: WP 2, Ex Box 2-7, Tri Box 1-2-7, .10 Super Box 1-2-3-7, Super Key 2 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7.

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Race 5: Matt Winn S(G3)---- 3 YOs---- Purse $150,000---- 1 And 1/16 Mile:

3) Nolo Contesto (3-1) is my choice to win. He broke his maiden three starts back, beating Omaha Beach in that test, who has not lost since. Then he gets beat twice by Roadster, the last being at a distance that his bloodlines suggests is a little to long for him. His trainer gave him a series of six works since his last start, all to maintain fitness until the last, when he was asked to work a little faster. Since that work has not blazing fast and was his last before this start and heading east, he probably needed to give a little extra effort. But it should have him nicely set up for a solid effort.

4) Knicks Go(5-1) is my choice for the second spot. He is a need the lead type to perform his best and he should be able to accomplish that against these. He has three starts this year which shows he was knocked off form with a huge effort in the BC Juvenile when 2nd. But his last shows he is returning to his best form. He has two works since his last and while not quite the way I would prefer, I still believe it is enough to run big in a rather weak G3 field.

2)Signalman (4-1) is my choice for third. I bet this horse in the Preakness and he did not pick up his feet. As I do with all horses I bet and with longshots that wins, I went back to try to figure out what happen. And then, it hit me. Next time, check the BLOODLINES. He was working solidly for that effort and looked live but his bloodlines was screaming "Not A CHANCE". Others give me grief that I am such a believer in bloodlines. But Signalman's sire, General Quarters, won the G1 Blue Grass S on the all weather surface but his longest win on dirt came in the G3 Sam F Davis S at Tampa Bay. And Signalman's broodmare sire, Trippi, was even worse. His longest win came in the G3 Flamingo S at 1 1/8 mile, but that was because he was the only speed on GP speed favoring track. Even though he won 7 of 14 lifetime starts, no other win was further than 7 furlongs. Actually he got crushed every other time he tried, Now Signalman is shortening back up to 1 1/16 mile which his bloodlines suggests is his longer limit, he is working good still and he catches a fairly weak field.

5) Mr Money (2-1) is my choice for 4th. He is another who I bet in his last race and he came through. However that was at a mile and since that start, his trainer has sped up his works, signaling to me he wants him closer to the lead. And I feel that is a mistake, given his bloodline. His sire, Goldencents, was a champion miler and very speedy. But he, too, won over a mile but only at SA and in that race, the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 mile, he sat behind a horse his trainer knew would tire and was able to hold off a Tapit son. While Tiznow is his broodmare sire, the sire of the 2nd dam is Distorted Humor, another who could not get a mile, much less 1 1/16 mile. If he rates like he has done so far, then you made consider him higher up. But if he doesn't, I hoping he can last for fourth.

My Bets: No WP, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 2-3-4, No .10 Super Box, Super Key 3 with 2-4-5 with 2-4-5 with 2-4-5.

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Race 6: Wise Dan S(G2)--- 3 YO & Up---- Purse $250,000---- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:

10) El Picaro (12-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first start this year and his first in this country. He has won 5 of 7 starts in his native country of Argentina, including the biggest G1 they have to offer. Since the likes of Candy Ride, Paseana and Bayakoa, I have seen little to get behind coming from that country. However since his sire, Lookin At Lucky; and his broodmare sire is Scat Daddy, both G1 winners on dirt in the U.S but both bred equally as good for grass, I now believe others will get to see what a good Argentina horse really looks like while they are racing. His trainer's grass stats looks poor, but his only graded stakes wins on grass has came with his male trainees, while his only graded stakes wins on dirt have came with females. 11 works spread out evenly over the last 2 1/2 months at Keeneland and he should be ready to fire.

1)Get Western (50-1) is my choice for the 2nd spot. He has two starts this year, The first was a race he needed and the second he easily won his first level condition allowance. He makes a huge leap up in class, but he also sports the trainer of Wise Dan, a multiple G1 SW on grass and two time U.S. Champion Grass Horse. LoPresti has been looking for another since Wise Dan retired and I believe he has found one. Get Western's sire, Get Stormy, was also late to mature as a 3 YO, winning his first stakes and then 2 G3 late in his 3 YO season. He came back as a 4 YO and won 2 G2s. He added 2 G1 as a 5 YO. And then he capped off his career with another G1 score as a 6 YO. In all, he won 11 of 31 starts and earned over $1.6M, all between 1 mile and 1 1/8 mile on grass. Get Western broodmare sire, Marquetry, was a high speed dirt horse that won 10 of 36 lifetime starts and earned $2.8M with his biggest G1 wins coming in the Hollywood Gold Cup at 1 1/4 mile on dirt and the Eddie Read H at 1 1/8 mile on grass. Get Western also has Northern Dancer listed twice on each side of his pedigree in the 5th generation. Do not know if he is ready to pull it off, but works and breeding suggest he is. Will not leave him out.

12) Admission Office (5-1) is my choice to finish in the 3rd spot. He has two starts this year also, the first a win in a second level condition and then a fast closing second to Catholic Boy in his first graded stakes try. He has two works since that effort and both looks like breezes to keep him fit. However, his sire, Point Of Entry, was a multiple G1 winner on grass and Admission Office is a member of his second crop to race. A member of his first crop was Analyze It. Admission Office broodmare sire, Royal Academy, was a 1/2 brother to the dam of Storm Cat and a leading sire in both Europe and Australia for a number of years, along with putting out many good runners that was brought to the U.S.

4) Hot Springs (10-1) is my choice for fourth. He, too, has made two starts this year. He was in need of his first start but it was also against Bricks And Mortar, a horse that has moved to the top of the grass horses division. His second look like the jockey tried to keep him too close to the pace and he failed to respond with his usual late kick. Now Asmussen switches back to his main jockey, gave this horse a series of 4 maintenance breezes since his last and he should return with his late kick in here.

My Bet: WP 10, Ex Box 1-10, Tri Box 1-10-12, .10 Super Box 1-4-10-12, Super Key 10 with 1-4-10 with 1-4-10 with 1-4-10. And what is extremely rare for me, I will also bet a smaller WP on the 1, and a tri box with the 1-4-10.

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Had the rest of my post typed in but then it disappeared again and it will not let me pull it back up. Won't have time to re type but I will give out my choices: I will put a few notes after each race, mostly about the odds horses I have chosen to give you a better idea why:

7th Race: 3) Elate(8-5), 6) Auspicious Babe(15-1), 5) Blue Prize(2-1). Betting only Tri Box 3-5-6 and Tri Key 3 with 5-6 with 5-6.

6) Auspicious Babe looks like she is returning to form after clearly being off her best form all year.

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8th Race: 12) Yoshida(7-2), 8) King Zachary(12-1), 4) Seeking The Soul(4-1), 3) Runaway Ghost(20-1). Bets: WP 12, Ex Box 8-12, Tri Box 4-8-12, .10 Super Box 3-4-8-12, Super Key 12 with 3-4-8 with 3-4-8 with 3-4-8.

King Zachary made his first start on derby day and could not compete on a track that was still drying out in a blazing pace and finish time behind the winner who got a big jump on him and the runner up who set the swift pace. With plenty of front running speed signed up for this race, he has a chance to make his presence felt under a new trainer. RUNAWAY GHOST has never beaten this kind, but he gets a chance to sit behind a few this go, instead of being the chase to ensure a solid pace. Has proven he does his best running when allowed to settle and then make a serious move.

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9th Race: 1) Winter Sunset(7-2), 2) Delta's Kingdom(8-1), 5)Hard Legacy(8-1), 11) Princess Carolina (4-1). Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-2, Tri Box 1-2-8, .10 Super Box 1-2-5-11, Super Key 1 with 2-5-11 with 2-5-11 with 2-5-11.

Delta's Kingdom's broodmare sire A.P. Delta is an unraced son of A.P. Indy and dam is Lyphard's Delta, making him a full brother to G1 winner Indy Five Hundred and Delta Princess, dam of 2 time F&M champion Royal Delta, G1 winners Delta Prince, Crown Princess, G1 Placed Carnival Court, G2 Placed Empire Way(whose first foals are now 4) and winner Khozan(whose first foals are now 2 and has one entered tomorrow that should be live at Woodbine).

Princess Carolina's dam is Pure Clan , a multiple G1 winner of 8 races in 16 starts and $1.9M in earnings. Pure Clan is also inbred to Secretariat through his daughter Terlingua and son General Assembly who found it impossible to beat Spectacular Bid in six attempts, though he was clearly the 2nd best 3 YO of 1979.

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10th Race: Arabians Stakes, so I will pass as race is wide open.

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11th Race: 11) Cadron Flat (9-2), 2) Dixie Zapper (15-1), 5) Shorely (5-1), 9) Game Day Decision (4-1). Bets: WP 11, Ex Box 2-11, Tri Box 2-5-11, .10 Super Box 2-5-9-11, Super Key 11 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9.

2) Dixie Zapper's trainer, Randy Morse, is a 15% lifetime winning trainer who got off to the worst start of his long career if nearly 40 years, but his horses normally comes alive at CD. Has trained the winners of approaching 1000 in his career(11 shy of that mark).

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Good Luck to all! Have fun!

Breeders Cup Preview for Saturday Nov 2

Saturday Nov 2, 2019 Santa Anita Park Race: 4 (2:55PM EST Post) BC Filly and Mare Sprint
Covfefe is lightning bolt fast and is 4 for 5 this year including shattering a track record earlier in May. She looks “revved up” for this off an 8 length win last time out and back to back excellent works……………Come Dancing is also 4 for 5 this year and could not have looked any better in her last. She heads west for the first time with a monster six furlong drill in tow and for the last time as well as (from what I gather) she has a “date” with Uncle Mo next spring………..I hate to put the gorgeous, $800,000 daughter of Quality Road, Bellafina this far down, I really do. She clearly does not “take her race track with her” as she is 4 for 4 on this oval, yet 2 for 7 everywhere else, including taking three straight drubbings out of town. Returns back “home” here………………….Honorable Mentions: Would the real Serengeti Empress please stand up?...................Secret Spice keeps finding ways to lose, but she is multiple Grade: 1 Stakes placed this year and likes this track……………..Spiced Perfection appears to be coming into this race in good form and is a two time Grade: 1 winner in her career. If she gets a good trip, she could be rolling down the lane…..Couple of long shots to consider include Dawn the Destroyer, who although is just 1 for 7 this year, just missed behind Spiced Perfection last time, and Heavenhasmynikki, who is blossoming of late and very sharp right now after three straight coast to coast wins.
Race: 5 (3:33 PM EST Post) BC Turf Sprint
Shekky Shebaz looks like the “speed of the speed” here. His internal fractions and lastest speed figures are superior as well. Could make every pole a winning one……………..Belvior Bay is a 6 year old mare taking on the ‘boys but is 6 for 9 at Santa Anita and comes into this after chasing (and only being beaten by 3 lengths) by that missile they called World of Trouble………………Eddie Haskell is having a very strong year as his 8-4-3-1 record would indicate. He’s never been off the board in 14 tries at this distance, including 9 wins…………..Honorable Mentions: Both Pure Sensation and Stormy Liberal have probably seen better days but either could jump up and run big here still …………….Stubbins and Totally Boss both appear to be coming into this in career form.
Race: 6 (4:10 PM EST Post) BC (Dirt) Mile
I loved the way the super star talent leveled Omaha Beach dug in and ran down the very speedy Shancelot in his first start back in almost 6 months last time out. This gorgeous, well put together son of War Front has trained brilliantly since. Bottom line here is he is one of, if not THE, best bet of both BC days……………………….It’s no secret I like the hulking Improbable, from the Bob Baffert barn, quite a bit. That said, by and large he’s disappointed this year and if you want proof, look no further than his 1 for 6 record. He’ll be cutting back in distance off his last and, judging by his most recent works, it appears Baffert has him “revved up” for this…………………Coal Front is 8 for 12 in his career and seems to have shaken off the effects of his Dubai trip in the spring. This distance hits him squarely between the eyes as well………….Honorable Mentions: Mr. Money has a four race win streak snapped last time out….nice colt…………..Diamond Oops has chased Imperial Hint and Bowie’s Hero in his last two and held his own……………………..Blue Chipper is 7 for 8 lifetime in Korea. Past that, I have no clue what to make of him. He appears in way over his head, then again so did Arcangues.
Race: 7 (4:54 PM EST Post) BC Filly and Mare Turf
Sistercharlie has now come from behind to win six straight Grade: 1s. Unless one of the Euros are Enable incognito, this 5 year old mare is another one of the best bets of the weekend…………………..Vasilika is 18 for 35 lifetime and an astounding 11 for 12 on this oval. Electrifying stretch running mare should be charging hard late………….The cleverly named Mrs. Sippy just missed behind Sistercharlie last time out. Between that race and her U.S debut/win two back, she must be considered ………….Honorable Mentions: All four Europeans….Castle Lady has won 3 of 5 and was making up ground late in a Grade: 1 at Keeneland last time out, her U.S debut……………Billesdon Brook has won 3 of her last 4 including a Group:1 last time out……..Fanny Logan has won four straight overseas…………….Fleeting was making up ground late against Sistercharlie in a race last year. The extra distance here should help her chances.
Race: 8 (5:36 PM EST Post)BC Sprint
Aside from a little hiccup (bounce) on July 27, Mitole has been the most dominant sprinter in the country in 2019. The only draw back I see is he heads west for the first time and there have been countless East Coast based horses who have fizzled when going west for the first time. Past that, this is his race to lose…………………..Catalina Cruiser might be the biggest (size wise) horse to run all weekend long. Big, super fast and he draws the rail on a track he is 2 for 2 over. This winner of 7 of 8 career starts must be considered……………..Conversely, Imperial Hint is a “pip squeak” in size but is nothing short of a running fool. Kudos to trainer Luis Carvajal for doing a masterful job in getting this speedster here. After setting a track record at Saratoga in the Alfred Vanderbilt, Carvajal gave this horse two months off to rest up after such a colossal effort. He brings him back in the Forego (a race where he was dead game in winning) then textbook trained him up to this. Bottom line here is he too must be considered……………..Honorable Mentions: Shancelot absolutely ran a hole in the wind in Amsterdam two starts back (121 BSF) but showed a little kink in the armor in his last two. Of course, there is no shame in losing by a head to Omaha Beach. That said, this colt figures to be among the vanguard in what looks to be a nuclear early pace, which might leave him vulnerable in deep stretch……………A couple of long-shots to consider include Hog Street Hustle, Engage and even what appears to be an out of top form Whitmore, as all three of these stretch runners could take advantage of what promises to be a wickedly fast early pace.
Race: 9 (6:20 PM EST Post) BC Turf Mile
Uni is a big, stretch running chestnut mare who takes on the ‘boys in this spot but has won 6 of her last 7 (all at this distance) including two Grade: 1’s………………Maximus Circus is a two time Group:1 winner overseas. Good looking colt by the great Galileo adds blinkers, is trained by one of the best in the world and is the recipient of one of my favorite angles (first time Lasix)…..figures bang up……………Got Stormy is another taking on the ‘boys but has been holding top notch form since May, including a Grade: 1 win and four straight “trips” speed figures…………Honorable Mentions: What’s up with the long odds on Suedios (20-1), who after being a ridiculous 8 wide on the turn for home, came screaming down the lane to miss by three quarters of a length in his U.S. debut, Lucullan (12-1), who is 3 for 4 after a long break, including coming home the last furlong in a strong :11.3 seconds last time out, and True Valor, who appears to be peaking right now after winning a Grade: 2 over this very turf course while getting a mile in an excellent 1:32.4? Upon paddock and pre-race warms ups inspections, I might use some or all in my exotics plays.
Race: 10 (7pm EST Post) BC Distaff
Midnight Bisou is now 7 for 7 this year, over 5 different surfaces and has recorded 3 Grade: 1 wins. She just “breaths different air” than the rest of this division. If she wins here, and I suspect she will, you have to toss her into the Horse of the Year debate……………Dunbar Road is gorgeous three year old filly taking on her elders here but, aside from her last race where she just didn’t fire, this $350,000 daughter of Quality Road had won 4 of her first 5 races including the prestigious Alabama Stakes at Saratoga…………………Blue Prize is a consistent, multiple Grade: 1 Stakes winner who appears to be coming into this in career best form…………………Honorable Mentions: Do not….do not….do not….. dismiss Street Band so quickly. Another 3 YO taking on elders, this filly knocked off Dunbar Road two races back and won the Grade: 1 Cotillion Stakes in her last. She is clearly getting good at the right time and will absolutely be on some of my tickets………………Wow Cat has hit the board in 14 of 15 career starts, including 9 wins and wasn’t THAT far behind Midnight Bisou last time out………………If Paradise Woods is “right”, she could make an impact on this race. However, she's a little too inconsistent for me.
Race: 11 (7:40 PM EST Post) BC Turf
Speaking of Horse of the Year contenders, Bricks and Mortar might be perched atop that discussion. Five year old, by the late, super sire Giant’s Causeway, is 5 for 5 this year with 4 Grade:1 wins. He possesses a strong and determined late run, handles any distance and is a solid favorite here…………………….Anthony Van Dyke ran third behind Magical in the prestigious QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes and chased Horse of the “World” Enable two starts back. That said, I’m going to try to beat this 3-1 morning line favorite……………Old Persian came from well back to win his North American debut in the Grade: 1 Northern Dancer in his last. Handsome colt gets scored a 100 BSF in that race and gets Lasix again here…..should be coming late……………..Honorable Mention: After “nibbling” in his prior races this year, the stretch running Arklow finally broke through and scored a Grade: 1 win last time out…..light bulb angle?..................Alounak just missed in his North American debut in the Grade: 1 Canadian International last time out. I was really impressed how he came home the last quarter in :23.2 over a course labeled “good”…that’s doing some running…………….Your super long-shot horse here is United, who is in good form right now and seems to be getting better as the distances get longer.
Race: 12 Breeders Cup Classic
Code of Honor is a three year old taking on elders but he appears to be getting better by the day. His last two races at 10 furlongs were a fast closing third in none other than the Kentucky Derby, and beaten by nose (by was put up to first) in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The facts he is improving and he likes this distance are enough for him to get my timid vote here………………….Like Improbable, it’s no secret I like McKinzie quite a bit, he’s fast, gorgeous and his back story is great. I’ve backed him in just about every race in his career and he has rewarded me more times that not. This bay colt sports a 7-3-4-0 record on this oval as well. Having said that, the fact still remains he is 0 for 2 at 10 furlongs, which I wouldn’t really make too much out of, but more importantly, his stride changed both times in deep stretch of those races. As I’ve said before, this son of Street Sense’s “wheelhouse” is between 7 and 8 ½ furlongs….this is well outside that realm. Listen if he beats me, I’ll tip my cap to him, but due to the distance alone, he’s a play against for me.......................I’m not a big fan of Vino Rosso but truth be told, he is in great form right now. He ran an enormous race in his one and only time over the Santa Anita surface, came back with a “parking lot” wide trip at Saratoga and essentially wired the field in the aforementioned Jockey Club Gold Cup only to be taken down for repeated bumping down the lane. A horse who likes the track and is in good form must always be respected…could conceivably outrun this rating……………..Honorable Mentions: Elate might be the best 10 furlong horse in the country male or female. This Amazonian mare is 3 for 3 at this distance this year, won them all 3 by wide margins and, most importantly, she was striding out beautifully in deep stretch….could better this rating……………..Yoshida is a 0 for 5 this year but he has run very well in his last two in NY and, after watching him train this week, Mott might have him peaking at just the right time…………………Mongolian Groom comes into to this razor sharp off four straight improved races ( last 4 BSF: 98, 99,100 and 110). Of all the horses I watched train this week over this track, he was one of the stand outs for sure. My only question is, where does he go from that 110 BSF? Surely it doesn’t go up, I doubt it stays the same, so that only leaves one option. Bottom line here is he just might have a “bounce” race coming up…………………Speaking of bouncing, it looks as though that exactly what Higher Power did in his last, if you can call a 99 BSF a bounce. The son of Medaglia d’Oro could spring back into form in this spot……………………..Owendale is a talented, good looking, three year old multiple Graded Stakes winner who appears overmatched. Make no mistake though, he seems to be getting better and better.

Experience online horse betting at its finest with great player rewards, free video and race replays, and horse racing tips. Wager at the best thoroughbred, harness, and quarter horse tracks across the world. LEXINGTON, Ky. — Keeneland’s drive thru betting will be open Friday, Sept. 4 and Saturday, Sept. 5 to accept wagers on the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1 ... LEXINGTON, Ky. (WKYT) -It’s Derby Day in the Commonwealth, but without the usual crowds and fanfare. Many celebrated in Lexington with drive-up betting at Keeneland. “What we’re accustomed to is people waiting in line for 45 minutes that’s not going to happen today,” says Jim Goodman director of wagering development at Keeneland. Contact Us. 4201 Versailles Road Lexington, Kentucky 40510. Phone: (859) 254-3412 Toll Free: (800) 456-3412 Fax: (859) 255-2484 Located in the Horse Capital of the World, Keeneland is an internationally renowned racecourse and the Thoroughbred industry’s leading auction house. Founded in 1936, Keeneland’s mission is to continually invest in the industry and to preserve the tradition of Thoroughbred racing.

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Vance Hanson and James Scully analyze the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing on Saturday, September 20, 2019. ... Keeneland Racing for Oct. 5 ... how to do horse betting in ... Keeneland Select is Keeneland Association's official online wagering service for horse racing. Players are able to bet on virtually every Thoroughbred, Harne... Vance Hanson and James Scully share their Keeneland picks for the weekend trackside. The duo talk through the Breeders' Cup Challenge races on Saturday as well as Road to the Kentucky Derby point ... The Kentucky Derby held annually at Churchill Downs is simulcast at Keeneland. For those of us in the Bluegrass Region that can't make it to Louisville, Keeneland is an extraordinarly beautiful ... Keeneland presents a handicapping session for Friday's Opening Day featuring Dan Illman and hosted by Peter Thomas Fornatale. Tools featured include DRF's Formulator and Timeform US's pace projector.

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[Health] - Keeneland offers drive-thru betting for Kentucky Derby, Oaks | Washington Times

[Health] - Keeneland offers drive-thru betting for Kentucky Derby, Oaks

Woodbine Live Saturday-Key Races & Bets Blog & other analysis for Saturday

Two Stakes of note at Saratoga Saturday, Ellis Park Derby, Yellow Ribbon Handicap at Del Mar

Eight Races covered on Free Key Races Blog & other blogs for Saturday May 23

Today's 10th race at Santa Anita (after the Juvenile) is a good betting race

Race #10

#5 Parsimony - Minimum betting odds 7/2

#2 Candy Cornell - Minimum betting odds 7/2

#1 Rogallo - Minimum betting odds 4/1

#8 Threefiveindia - Minimum betting odds 4/1

#16 Top Brass - Minimum betting odds 4/1

I’m not recommending any exactas in a wide open race but if you consider the wager, in addition to those above also consider #11 Justinian and #13 Coil Me Home, at least for the second position on those exacta tickets.

Candy Cornell has just one win in 12 career starts and four runner-up finishes but his last race, under nearly identical conditions, was his best yet as he missed by a half-length for the win and was a head behind runner-up Rogallo for second.

Rogallo was making his fifth career start that day BUT ONLY his second in a dirt sprint, having won a dirt sprint in his debut, and Candy Cornell broke his maiden in a dirt sprint, so both have good shots to be competitive right back, opening at 8/1 and 6/1, respectively.

Key Races blog, podcast & other content for Saturday 3/28

My 2019 Ky Derby Pedigree Analysis With The Ones I Am Considering Betting