Look first of all I'd like to be honest with you, I'm not going to claim I "stumbled" upon some "crazy secret system" that nobody knows. In fact, probably more than a few people know what I'm talking about in this article. The truth is that I've been playing the Preakness among many other horse races, for at least 15 years.
The Preakness is the first throroughbred race I ever attended, back in the 1990's. I had played at harness tracks, having been introduced to that at a young age, but had never been to a throroughbred track until 1996.
That year, my good friend and fellow horseplayer convinced me we should go to Pimlico for a big infield party and some big horse races would break out at some point. I didn't know or care much about anything except the infield party and thought it would be fun. We brought a 12 pack and settled in.
Early in the afternoon on the way up, we tuned in to the Baltimore rock station and were hearing all kinds of live music from some of our favorite bands such as Pearl Jam. We were just about pissed off at the fact that we missed some of these bands live, only to show up and find it was just a DJ playing live cuts, and the few local bands on deck hadn't even started playing yet.
I was young and after the party was over and horse races had broke out, I was wondering why Louis Quatorze had won the Preakness and we hadn't bet on him. After that I began some more analysis and started using some figures from Brisnet to help me analyze the races.
A couple years later I liked Charismatic in the Kentucky Derby, among like 10 other horses, but failed to have the right trifecta boxes since I had little clue what I was doing. I liked him in the Preakness as well, still at good odds since people thought his Derby victory was a fluke, but again failed to have the right trifecta when Badge showed up. But at that point I realized that a pattern was emerging.
Eventually I figured this stuff out, although hard-headed about it and unwilling to part from numerical analysis from numbers that I didn't even know how were calculated. I found out it didn't really take a any magic numbers or even much analysis for a basic wagering strategy.
With few exceptions, the Preakness is one of the easiest races to bet. Take the top (4-5) horses from the Kentucky Derby that run at Pimlico two weeks later, and undoubtedly 2 of them will finish in the top 4, in fact, usually the top two horses from the Derby will finish 1-2 in the Preakness. It's really that simple.
After that you do have to put in some analysis to figure out which "outsiders" will infiltrate the trifecta, or possibly even win the Preakness, along with the Kentucky Derby contingent. There are various tools to use to accomplish this but I normally use one I invented.
Unsatisfied with numbers from various other people and organizations with their secret calculations that I did not understand, I decided to make algorithms to create my own numbers and put them into what I call the Grid.
Last year, the Grid gave me Preakness winner Shackleford at 13-1 as the top Speed and Power horse. It was an obvious key horse for me and automatic win bet at those kind of odds. Plus, he was a top four Derby finisher. Apparently people forgot he finished 4th not 14th in the Derby, which was very respectable for a frontrunner.
Combine him with Derby winner and obvious favorite Animal Kingdom at 2nd, and take Astrology as an improving horse with 4th best Early Pace according to the Grid in 3rd place, and you have a very easy trifecta payout. Add Dialed In, the best Late Pace horse coming off a disappointing but respectable 8th place Derby finish, and you have a very easy superfecta.
This is what I call the anatomy of a perfect Preakness exotic bet. You take any of the top 4 Derby finishers that are running at Pimlico, and key them and 1 and 2, get the "outsider" that didn't run in the Derby at good odds, and add another strong contender, usually from the Derby, such as a good late runner for 4th.
You would be surprised how many times the Preakness plays out this way. Often the same horse will win the Preakness that won the Derby, which has happened less in the last few years but they still often finish in the money. And in fact the top two in the Derby often run 1-2 at the Preakness.
So using the top Derby horses is obvious but where will you find the "outsiders" that will undoubtedly take up a spot or two in the superfecta? Well that is tough to come up with by yourself. Normally you will need more of an advanced handicapping tool for that, which is why I use the Grid. I can tell you that the outsider is almost always at odds from 12-1 to 15-1 so that narrows it down.
The year before last the Grid of course gave me the Preakness winner, but only at 2-1 and not much value there, obviously. But also it gave me 11 of 13 winners that day including some nice long shots that provided good exotic payouts.
Of course, since I wrote this, it could just happen that the top Derby horses will finish 1-4 in the Preakness, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens. Especially since of my top 6 Derby winning contenders, out of 20, 4 of them finished 1-4 in the Derby.
So now you know the basic strategy now for betting the Preakness. You just need to find the right long shot or two to add to your obvious Derby contenders for some nice exotic payouts. If I were you, I'd use the Grid to get them, but that's just because it always comes through for me in these situations.

This time of year becomes quite busy for this sub. It was requested to make a down and dirty handicapping primer for new people coming to the sub and discord. This will be a five part series in which I will discuss speed, pace, form, class, and then other factors such as track bias, distance, surface, jockey’s, trainers, and post positions. This post will discuss who makes the race schedule, what class is, why class is important, and I make the case that class can be deceiving.

Who schedules the races? What is a condition?

A majority of races have what are called conditions. Some races will have none, which is called an “open” race. Others may have a lot of conditions. We’ll look at some examples now.
This first condition basically says: for female horses, age 3 years and older and have started for a claiming price of 50,000 or less AND have never won a race other than maiden or claiming. In order for your horse to race, it would have to meet the above criteria or condition. In addition, they list the weights for each horse. So if a horse was 3 years old and had not won a race in 2018, they would be allowed to carry a weight of 118 compared to a horse who is 4 years or older and had won a race in 2018 (they would have to carry a weight of 124).
This is another example of a condition which basically says: for horses which have never won a race AND are two years old. It also lists a preference, in that they want horses which have started for less than 3 times or for a claiming price of 40,000 or less.
Each track has their own racing secretary which decides that kind of races there are going to be. This is a difficult job because they are trying to appease all of the trainers and owners who want to run at their track. If the writer makes the conditions too broad, there may be a big discrepancy between the quality of horses entered to run. If the conditions are too narrow, they might not find enough horses leading to a small field. The conditions you see above are pretty typical, but I have seen some uniquely written ones; such as “for trainers with less than 10 horses in their barn.”

The Class Totem Pole

The easiest way to understand classes is to think of it as a totem pole. The way the order goes from top to bottom is:
Graded stakes (G1, G2, and G3), listed/restricted/overnight stakes, allowance, claiming, maiden special weight, and finally maiden claiming.
Graded Stakes – Grade 1, Grade 2, and Grade 3
Graded stakes races are typically the cream of the crop. These are the horses which are among the best in their region, nation, or internationally. The differences between each grade typically lies in the purse minimum. However, a track may choose to offer a higher purse which may attract higher quality horses. We are not going to go into the differences between each grade, but know that if you see a graded stakes race, expect some quality racing. The example of grade 1 stakes above is also a handicap race. These types of races are more popular in Europe but you will occasionally see in the US. A handicap refers to the horses carrying different weights by the jockey. These weights are set by the racing office.
Listed/restricted/overnight stakes
I clumped this group together even though there are differences. This is the next step below graded stakes and typically have a lesser purse than a graded stakes race. Listed stakes are open to any horse. Restricted stakes are restricted by age or gender, and overnight stakes are stakes races which have their conditions written in a short period of time (approximately 3 days).
Allowance races
These horses are ones that are better than your average claiming horses in which the owner does not want to sell but might not be as good as the stakes horses or might be unproven in races above claiming. There are a variety of allowance conditions you might see, such as non-winners of a certain amount of money or races. Another allowance you might see is starter allowance, which means the horse has started for a certain claiming price or an optional-claimer allowance, meaning that some horses might be up for claiming when running in an allowance race.
Claiming races
The bread and butter of all race tracks in America. You will find a variety of claiming tags, anywhere from $2,500 to $150,000. These are horses which are for sale for a certain price tag. Claiming races may also have conditions to them, such as “for non-winners of 2 races” or “for non-winners of races since 01/01/2019.” There are also claiming races which horses may run at the different price tags in exchange for a lower weight with the jockey.
Maiden Special Weight
These are horses which have never won a race. In these types of races you will often see horses which have never ran before or might have run a few times. These races can be restricted to state-bred horses or restricted by gender.
Maiden Claiming
These are horses which have never won a race and are now for sale. You will hear that this is the biggest class drop in the horse racing. You may find some loser horses, such as ones that have ran 26 times without winning

Why is Class Important?

The basis of understanding class is because it will tell you how good (or bad) a horse is. If you see a horse making a big jump the class totem pole, such as from claiming to stakes, or a big drop; such as stakes to claiming, it should catch your attention. You should consider why the horse is making such a jump or drop. Sometimes it is warranted; maybe the horse has won multiple times in claiming and it’s time to try for a bigger purse. Maybe there is a new trainer who thinks they can unlock the potential of the horse. Other times the jump isn’t warranted. In those cases, you need to ask yourself why the horse is now racing a higher (or lower) level. Are the workouts good (or bad)? Has the horse ran in a while? Is the horse constantly coming in 2nd or 3rd (or last) and the owners want to see if the horse can come in 2nd or 3rd for a bigger purse (or at all)? I’ve been beat multiple times throwing out a horse which is making a jump or a drop when the reality was the ownetrainer knew something that I didn’t.

Taking Class Jumps or Drops at Face Value

When I was first learning about class types, I thought that because a horse was moving from an allowance race to a claiming race, the race would be easier for that horse. While that is generally true, that is not always the case. A website I use for a majority of my handicapping is TimeformUS. One feature is a race rating, where they will score the race based on the difficulty of the horses in the field. We’ll look at a few extreme examples of race rating.
Bodexpress was a maiden starting in the Florida Derby, a Kentucky Derby prep in which 1st and 2nd are guaranteed to be in the Kentucky Derby. Interestingly, TimeformUS rated his last maiden race as a 115, more difficult than the race rating for the field in the Florida Derby. Without knowing the race rating, Bodexpress was an automatic throw away. He didn't belong in this race because he was a maiden and went off at odds of 71-1. While horses like Bodexpress are almost always a toss, there were several clues that this horse might be better than expected. If you could look past him being winless, you could set yourself up for a nice payout. He finished 2nd, paying $47.40 to place and $16.60 to show. If you paired him with the winner in an exacta, you would get a $257.10 return on a $1 bet.
Ax Man is trained by the respected trainer Bob Baffert. He went off as the 6/5 favorite in the G2 San Carlos at Santa Anita. He had a respectable stakes win at Pimlico as a 3 year old and started his 4 year old campaign with a win in an allowance race. TimeformUS rated that race as a 115 and the San Carlos Stakes as a 121. Compared to his previous race, this was a moderate jump in race difficulty, one that probably did not warrant betting at 6/5. Ax Man never got going and finished a dismal 5th.
One final example race rating being important is this maiden claiming race at Golden Gate Fields. The winner, Glory Call, was lightly raced and dropping from a 25k maiden race to a 12.5k maiden race. In 2018, his only race was in a 25k maiden claiming in which he finished 2nd. That race rating was a 76. Again, we see that even though 25k maiden claiming should have a tougher field than a 12.5k maiden claiming. Today’s race rating is 75, similar to his 25k maiden claiming race in which he finished 2nd. Glory Call won at odds of 20-1, paying $43.60 to win, $13.40 to place, and $5.60 to show.
This is one tool you can have in your handicapping arsenal to help you find logical longshots for a big price.

Subsequent Parts

Fundamentals of Handicapping: Pace

I'm excited to just write this one up. I loved California Chrome when he was on the Kentucky Derby Trail and I loved him in the quest for the Triple Crown. My heart broke when he lost at Belmont and hated the negative crap said about the owners. Espinoza is a respected member of the jockey colony and Chrome is just a beautiful horse to watch. Chrome also represents my first full season handicapping races and owe some of my early success to his success. I would love to learn how to ride a thoroughbred just to have the chance to ride him once. Talk about a dream, right?
Anyway, enough reminiscing, onto the races!
Disclaimer: I have no idea how to handicap horses not from North America :) So, any of you fans from across the pond, please chime in here.
Race 9 - 1 1/4 miles - Purse: $10,000,000
1) Keen Ice - Famously known for beating American Pharoah in the G1 Travers last August @ Saratoga (1 1/4M race) in 2:01.57. That same time here may spank the field. But this is Dubai and Keen Ice has not won since the Travers. Lost to Mshawish 2 back in the G1 Donn Handicap and had nothing in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden. Last posted workout was a sharp 1:00 in 5F @ GP. Twitter says he looks great but who doesn't say that about a horse that's won nearly $2MM. M/L odds of 20-1. I think there are other horses that are coming into this race more prepared and looking sharp. If he returns to form for this race though, he could win. Recent performances say otherwise...
2) Mshawish - Winner of his last two, a 1 mile G3 and the G1 Donn @ 1 1/8, Mshawish is looking great with bullet workouts (5f in .58.4!). The 1 1/8 was won in 1:47.89... Add 13 or even 14 seconds for the last 1/8, and he's running this race in 2:01 or 2:02. That's really good but the other horses are G1 winners themselves. He could run a great race and win this thing. He did finish 4th in the BCMile carrying 126lbs, not sure how he'll handle the weight here at M/L 8-1
3) Gun Pit - 2nd in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden last out. Winner clocked in at 2:03.09 and he was less than 3 lengths behind. At 30-1, he could be well suited for the exotics. Other than his 7 wins in 9 dirt races, I'm not seeing a compelling reason to think he could win unless he really steps it up from his last race.
4) Mubtaahij - won the Al Naboodah Group UAE Derby G2 at Meydan last year and only ran 4 times since - not winning anything along the way. 4th in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden last out and 5th in a G3 @ Meydan. Beaten by almost half the field in North America and across the pond, I don't understand why he gets a M/L of 15-1. Maybe has a chance to rally into an exotic? I dunno, I'm just not seeing it.
5) Special Fighter - Won last out at the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden. 1 1/4 in 2:03.09 by 4 over Gun Pit. Last 5 races are all at Meydan with the Fernando Jara on board. The problem here is that the horse has a definite pattern: win, 6th, win, 6th, win.... So, 6th again? Frosted kicked his butt 2 back. I have a feeling we're starting to see the line between the Grade A team and the B team... We'll put him on the B team. Moving on!
6) Candy Boy - ???? WTF ???? Last race was G1 World Cup 1 year ago (4th behind Chrome)? Last posted work was October 2014? 1 race in 2015 and 0 in 2016? Something isn't right here. What are we missing? Why is he here? The practical person in me says: 50-1... toss it.... The conspiracy theorist in me says: We don't know the whole story. Might be worth a $2 show bet. It'll pay a lot better than Chrome winning.
7) Vadamos - vive la france! 20-1? .... 2nd in an allowance race last out, 13th in a G1 2 back, won a G2 3 back. B team.
8) Hokko Tarumae - Won 861k stakes race last out. 1 5/16 in 2:14.10. 2nd in 1,130K race prior. Been the favorite 4 out of last 5 races. Won 2. 2nd in 2:03.00 at 1 1/4 2 back. Ummmm.... why would he be 20-1? Just because his races were in Japan? How does that translate to racing in Dubai? The class seems to say A team. Frankly, I think this horse could be in the money but like the other shippers, I don't know how he'll do here. Maybe the angle to look at is the horses that have found success at this track already then look for them at the top. I'll keep him in mind for exotics, but this could really start to add up.
9) Frosted - Do we start chanting U.S.A. now? Winner of the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge last out at 1 3/16 in 1:56.67 carrying 126 lbs. The comments in the PP say he won "easily". Bullet workouts. Throw out the BC Classic loss to Pharoah, he also won the PA Derby - G2. 3rd to Keen Ice and Pharoah in the Travers, but that was a while ago. His workouts and easy win at Meydan shows he's adjusted to the local conditions. At 2-1, let's see what he has for this race. I doubt it will be "easy" again. The only caveat is that he hasn't won at 1 1/4. Does he have the stamina to last that last 1/8?
10) Hoppertunity - You have to ask yourself if this is the horseracing version of an Easter Egg at 12-1. He hasn't won at 1 1/4. Won last out in San Antonio @ SA. ITM in last 5 starts, all G1 or G2 races. He may not win, but does he have the stamina to stay in the money at 1 1/4?
11) California Chrome - Winner last out in 150K handicap carrying 132lbs at 1 1/4 in 2:04.24 at Meydan. Won by 2 and had the lead from 300m out (I think he was geared down at the end). 2nd last year in this race to Prince Bishop, Chrome is back and looking good. 3-2... is that patriotism driving down the odds or is he really the contender? 1st or 2nd in his last 5, including G1 and G2 wins. Workouts are sharp, winning form, and twitter updates says he's ready to go. Watch at he comes around the bend and Victor hits the gas peddle. Who will be trying to stay with him??
12) Teletext - Winner last out at 1 1/2 in 2:29.62 in G1. Prior to that, mixed success in smaller allowance races and 4th in G2 @ 1 1/2m. There's not a whole lot to go on here, but I like that he runs 1 1/2. He can go the distance and may not tire towards the end. According to the PP, he was being eased down in his last race.... at 30-1, he could make for a nice play in the exotics.
Alright... what to bet?
I like Chrome... he's won here before and carrying more weight. He's looking good and he's won at the distance. Contender. If Frosted is really running as good as they say, then a boxed exacta (9/11) works.... wait, 9/11? Alright, just nevermind....
In lieu of the those two favorites... What about Hokko Tarumae (8) over Candy Boy (6)? Boy, that would pay well...
Hmmm, let's see... horse that runs well at Meydan and won or close: 3) Gun Pit (2nd) 5) Special Fighter (1st) 9) Frosted (1st) 11) California Chrome (1st)
And winners at the distance? 5) Special Fighter (1st) 8) Hokko Tarumae (1st) 9) Frosted (1st) 11) California Chrome (1st) 12) Teletext (1st)
Mix these up any way you like... 11/9/12, 8, 5 or 9,11/9,11/12,8,5 or 8/9/11/12 boxed .10 super... or...... What do I know? This is Mayden and is a $10MM race. Let's chant USA and box 9/11 and call it a day :)
The other race I found compelling is Race 6: The $2MM, 6f sprint... M/L favorite is X Y Jet @ 9-5.... Consistently runs 6f in 1:08 This should crush the field....??? Master Kochanwong won last out in 1:08 as well... he's 12-1 I'd take the payout on a 3/2 exacta...
Anyway, whatever happens, happens. This is Meydan and almost anything can happen given what it takes to ship a horse there. I suspect there will be plenty of big payouts... Good luck to everyone!